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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 138,44 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 63,31 Mrd. $
Marktkapitalisierung = 138,44 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 62,37 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 189,82 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 63,31 Mrd. $
Enterprise Value = 189,82 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 62,37 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
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Pfizer — Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Okay. Terrific. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference here in sunny Miami. Hopefully, it stays that way. My name is Asad Haider. I'm the Co-Head of the Healthcare Research business unit at Goldman Sachs. I'm most of the U.S. pharma analysts. I'm very pleased to open the conference with Dr. Albert Bourla, CEO of Pfizer, he kicks off our conference every year as you've been doing, Albert, very kindly over the past few years. Thank you very much for being with us.
We have a lot to get through, but maybe before I get into some of my specific questions, Albert, any high-level opening remarks from your end?
I think I'm quite pleased with the way that we are executing in a strategy that I think is very solid right now. Since the changes that we did in our commercial model in the post COVID, I think the word that stands out, it is consistency in delivery, consistency in delivering. If you see 2024, 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, we beat the expectations of revenues or EPS. And in most cases, we beat on both. And that we did in despite the fact that we were reducing cost dramatically, and we were able to do to reduce cost dramatically, because we employed AI and very targeted transformational things of changing the business.
The other thing that I will point out is that we were able to deliver these results in the face of a radically declining COVID business. COVID business in '24 was $12 billion, actually, $11 billion. Then it went to $6.5 billion. And this year, we gave guidance by derisking it at $5 billion, right? So despite that, we are doing well, and we are doing that well because the other parts of the business are performing very well. So that's on the financial front.
But the thing that excites me the most, it is, of course, the progress that we had in the pipeline that, you've noticed also in a lot of your reports. I will start very quickly with oncology, which is the crown jewel of our R&D business right now. We had with thoracic cancer with lornatinib, the new standard of care. I think it is probably the first thing that we see something like converting metastatic lung cancer into a chronic disease. We have 7 years, and there is no medium survival risk yet, and there are people, but there are many people that I have seen in the 10 years plus. We had with -- in urothelial with both Padcev, 56% improvement. We have with talazoparib, 56% improvement. We had in breast cancer with the new data that we presented for the CDK4 and they can go on and on with a multiple myeloma on the oncology.
On the vaccines front, also, we had two significant successes. One is a readout of Lyme disease at 70-plus percent efficacy. We are optimistic that we will get registration with this product and that will become the first and only -- actually, there was one, not the first, but we'll be the only of the new generation of Lyme diseases over there, but also there was a significant success with pediatric in Prevnar 25 that we are launching. And then we announced that we are going for Prevnar 35.
We are hot of obesity ADA. I'm sure we will have a lot of discussions. But the highlight for me is that we presented data that support our positioning that we will have a product in 2 years that, it is as good in efficacy as the current leading product better than the current lagging product. It will be excellent tolerability and will be monthly. And then, of course, in immuno-inflammation, we presented data on the trispecific. So with that, I will turn it to you.
So certainly a lot going on in terms of the rhythm of the business and the rhythm of the pipeline. But I guess maybe starting with a high-level question, and you sort of alluded to this. You've led this very significant structural transformation as you pivot from pandemic reliance on COVID-19 towards a more diversified portfolio focused on oncology and obesity and I&I, et cetera, right? You've done about $70 billion of M&A over the last few years. You've done sizable cost reduction programs, overhaul the R&D structure.
So maybe just talk to us about where we are in this arc, right? Is the substrate in place, so from here, it's going to now be about commercial and clinical execution? Or is there potentially more to do in terms of potential transformational moves at an enterprise level?
There were three things that needed to be restored after COVID when we had the very big shock that we lost half of our revenues. One was the commercial model, that I think it is up and running, and I feel very, very comfortable that this commercial superpower that Pfizer traditionally had in the marketplace globally, not only in the U.S., but all over the world, it's restored, and it's like a well-oiled machine.
The second was on cost of goods in manufacturing that with COVID, we had to do dramatic high investments that we're planning for -- to absorb over many, many years. That, of course, changed because COVID business reduced dramatically. So we had to take significant drops. So if you see the margins now are going up.
And the third, which is the most important was R&D. What was this R&D the concern? With R&D, the concern was never productivity in terms of technical merit. I challenge you and everyone else to go and see the data. Right now, if you compare dollars in of Pfizer R&D in the last 5 years and products out, how many approvals we had, we are top-top-top quartile. When I say we are in the top end of the top quartile. If you see a success rate in Phase II, Phase III, we are top quartile. But if you see dollars in dollars out, we are a mediocre. And that was what I needed to fix. It was a wrong choice of products. that we brought to the market, either because we've chosen wrong or sometimes we were unlucky with what competition did. But I think it is our responsibility to do that better. The good news is that if it was a question for me to fix capabilities of R&D, that will be a long-term journey years. If it is just to fix the focus or where we put -- where we turn the cannons, I think it's much, much -- which is simpler and faster, which is what we have done.
And part of that journey has been based on your BD strategy and the deals that you've done. I think just maybe high level on capital allocation. You've got about $7 billion in M&A capacity that's left. That -- by the way, after the [ Henry ] deal? Is that still the number?
Yes.
Okay. So -- and that suggests about earlier stage deals potentially from here. So as you think about scenario planning, are there circumstances in which you think you might need to do something bigger. And if those circumstances were to arise, you have levers, what levers do you have that you could shift around in terms of capital allocation priorities?
Of, let me say that we can do something bigger if we want because we have a very big balance sheet. So it's not -- the $7 billion, it is if we want without diluting our stock position to do deals. That -- already, we did $70 billion of capital deployment. That we did, as you said, three of the -- actually eight. Three of the deals represent 80% of the capital that we deployed. That was Seagen is performing extremely well in terms of the in-line product. Just to remind you, this quarter, we had 20% growth in the Seagen portfolio years after we did the acquisition.
The second was Biohaven which was the migraine product. That I remind you this quarter was 42% growth. And the third was Metsera, where we presented data and we are starting what we have already initiated a very big part of 10 pivotal studies, and we plan to compete very well. So I think that is doing very well.
So right now, what we need is to execute on that and then complement it not with bigger things, but with pipeline, bolt-ons that will help us enhance our position, which is what you saw with the Innovent deal that we did in China. You saw it with VEGF PD-L1, and you will see a lot of these things coming forward.
Maybe, Albert, just if we could talk a little bit about the external environment, the external operating environment for the industry. You have the midterm elections coming up. You've got attempts to codify MFN. You've got some regulatory uncertainty as it relates to an FDA leadership vacuum. So I guess from your seat, what are you paying the most closest attention to in terms of just external forces?
And I think you made some comments last week about drug pricing remaining an existential threat potentially to the industry. So I guess, what did you mean by that? I mean I thought maybe with MFN, we were sort of done with that? Is there something in your line of vision that would suggest this could become a nettlesome kind of variable for us to all think about again.
What I said, and I truly believe it is that, it was an existential threat in 2025. And that was not only the price adjustments, a radical price adjustment in the U.S., but also was the tariffs. That's why most of my time in '25 was allocated trying to resolve that for Pfizer and as a result for the industry. I think we did very, very well. I think the deal that we signed with the Trump administration, put an end to both the tariffs, threat because we have until the end of the term holiday of any tariffs and on the MFN, which is prospective only for the new products with Medicaid.
That deal was excellent. Everyone did the exact same deal, and I'm very pleased and proud that we led the way. Now in addition to this, which is the -- by the way. I think always, we had challenges in '25, I mean, with the FDA, with CDC, et cetera, I see tremendous steps towards the right direction. Things are going well, I would say there. I think changes that we had in FDA are very positive. Changes that we had in CDC are very positive. The new director is an excellent scientist that brings confidence to all that science will prevail. So I think over there, I don't worry much.
There are two things that I think are shaping this industry faster than what we thought. One is AI. AI will change dramatically, the whole value chain generation. And as a result, will create because of the disruption that will bring new winners and losers. So it's not something trivial. The ranking will change and people that are on top to go down and people that are on the bottom can go up if they get it right or get it wrong.
The second thing that is happening, it is the emergence of China as a scientific superpower. This is changing completely the equation. The geographies and the way that the medical innovation is produced is radically different. And everyone needs to have a strategy how to tap in, in this innovation, but also how to compete in 5 years with the, Chinese companies. But as I see it, my competitor will not be Lilly or AstraZeneca, but will be Chinese mega players to that time.
And that's a great segue into my next two high-level questions, which are exactly that. I think you made some comments a couple of weeks ago saying that AI and China are the last things you think about before you go to bed.
So maybe just double-click on your vision for AI as it relates to the transformation of the organization. You've highlighted it as a key strategic priority. But I guess the question that we often get from equity investors, Albert is what are we going to see tangible benefits in terms of quantifiable metrics on how AI is helping the pharma industry. So how would you respond to that?
First of all, I have to say that when it comes to Pfizer investors have seen some tangible benefits from the deployment of AI because all this cost reduction without touching the top line, it is because exactly we didn't just cut but we transform productivity to the next level with -- by employing AI. But still, it is scratching the surface right now.
I think when -- in our planning, if things goes well, we will start seeing the benefits in year '28 in a big way because we have right now in the second half of '26 scaling up big time, a lot of really scaling up and making decisions towards the end of this year for things that we will do in and things we will not do. All the plans are in place.
If things work, I think by the end of '27, we will have a very different Pfizer organization that will be an AI native to the degree that it can, and that should provide the benefits in '28.
Maybe just then going from...
Ready for the growth period that starts post '28.
On the cost line, do you think on?
Actually, that's the efficiency and the cost reduction because of AI, it is the least valuable thing. It's going to be significant, but it's the least valuable thing. I think the commercial model is changing dramatically with AI. So you can gain significant market share if you know how to deal with the big models.
Physicians are getting all their information from LLMs. So things will change dramatically. So if you get it right, you can have significant wins in the top line as well.
Let's talk a little bit more about China. It obviously is a big theme in the sector. You talked a little bit about it already. It remains a very fertile and dynamic source of innovation in your words, Albert they're doing things at half the cost at 3x the speed. You've been active there. You've done a number of deals, most recently with Innovent, as you mentioned.
So just update us on the developments you're seeing from a broad industry perspective and balancing this tension between doing these partnerships and deals versus what you said China's emergence as a superpower in clinical development that could be your competitors in [ 2026 ].
That has consequences. Right now, it is positive consequences. It's opportunity. Right now, there is a lot of new science that is generated, and you can tap into it and develop it. They can't do global development yet. So they need you. And there is an ample offering of excellent science right now.
So the first part of our strategy, it is how to tap into that opportunity and maximize. But there's a second thing on the consequences, which is negative, which is they will emerge eventually as a global competitor. They will start developing global capabilities. And we have seen that playbook with batteries. We have seen that with EVs. So it's no doubt in my mind. So that's why I said that they will come as our main competitors in end of the decade by year 2030.
Now what does this mean for us? They are introducing a different league of competition. If you compare Lilly and AstraZeneca and Merck and us someone is better here, someone is better there, but we are all within a margin and the same league. The same category, some year, someone wins, COVID we won, Lilly won now in obesity. So that will keep changing, right? They come with a different league, half the cost 3, 4x the speed is the new norm that they will introduce in this competition. So if you want to be able to compete. You need to do exactly that. You need to be able, one, to half your cost; secondly, to improve dramatically your speed; and third, to be able to invest significant amounts in innovation. Those are the three things that you need to do. And that's where Pfizer is going.
When I say the last thing I think is AI and China, when I go to bed, and the first thing, when I wake up in the morning because I dream about it. while I'm sleeping. It is how to deploy AI transform the company into an AI native company that will triple our speed and half our cost.
I'm going to...
Triple our speed, I mean in producing innovation, right? So way more innovation much faster.
I'm going to move to zoom in on some business-specific aspects. But before I do that, I just want to see if there are any questions, big picture at a high level from the audience?
Okay. Albert, let's maybe start double-clicking on just the business. Just in terms of current business trends, just a word maybe just given the revenue beat in the first quarter that you saw commentary from Dave on the earnings call, suggesting upside pressure to 2026 guidance. I think the words that we used is that, the philosophy is not to raise guidance in the first quarter, but the levers seem to be in place. So just level set us on the current trends.
Look, I think the quarter was very strong. We never raised guidance in the first quarter because it's first quarter and I was tempted this time because it was very strong. But the -- if you ask me, do I think that we have a significant upside probably in the non-COVID business. Yes, because this is the part of the business that did extremely well, not the COVID, right? But -- and do I think that we have derisked of COVID? I hope, because from $6.5 billion, which was the lowest ever we gave guidance of $5 billion. But still I keep the reservation. I want to see how COVID will evolve.
COVID has two components, the vaccine and the treatment. The vaccine, I don't think will be very variable. I think will come as we predicted it. because people vaccinations are at the lower level. This is what we calculated it, and I don't think that will change much. However, the treatment, it is highly correlated with the level of infection, not that much the vaccine. But the treatment is absolutely correlated with the level of infections. So if we don't have COVID wave infections, then perhaps will go lower than last year. If we have a high wave in September of August, September of COVID, then we'll have much higher than last year. So there is this uncertainty there. But the other part of the business is doing very, very well.
And then maybe just on the long-term guidance, your increased confidence that starting in 2029, Pfizer is going to enter a period of a 5-year period of high single digit revenue CAGR. So maybe just walk us through how you get there. There still seems to be a more to come of investors around that.
I'm highly convinced about that. And this is not a vision statement. I want to do that. It is a bottom up and how we do that. It is. We have the in-line products that were easier to predict. I remind you that our new launches and business development, business grew 22% this quarter at $3 billion, right? So that's already $12 billion annualized business that is growing exponentially. So we have that piece. And then, of course, we have the in-line products.
Hen we have the LOEs, that they are also easy to predict and certain. We know how the products to respond with archetypes. So we know exactly how that will go.
And then we have the pipeline. In the pipeline, there are multiple products, and they are all risk-adjusted when you do the bottom up. If it was five products, it is -- you can say that you can be lucky or you can be unlucky. But if it is [ 15% ], then the statistics should work. So the probability of success, some will fail, some will succeed, but should come to these numbers. So when we see that number, I have high certainty, but starting in '29 we will have high single-digit growth on the top line.
So let's -- that's a great segue then to maybe start talking a little bit more about the pipeline. Maybe just most recent developments coming off of ADA, Pfizer had a notable presence with detailed data for berobenatide, showing efficacy that's on par with the currently marketed GLP-1s, manageable tolerability, no new safety signals in the context of low investor expectations that was an incremental positive. And you're moving this program into 10 Phase III trials.
So just -- and you're sort of highlighting the convenience of monthly dosing. So help us understand how you're thinking about the commercial opportunity where you're going to come to the market with the weekly first as a sort of a bridge into the monthly that comes later. And by the time you -- at that time, there's also potentially going to be more competition, maybe Amgen's MariTide, maybe higher efficacy agents. So just maybe help frame those dynamics for us.
Yes. How I see it. We come with the weekly, but the monthly will follow very fast. So it's not that it's going to come after 2 years, right? It's going to come in months after the week.
Then the second one, it is that we will start by trying to get new patients that they want to start into this GLP-1 class and they would prefer us because they can get the same benefits, but they will get it with a monthly injection. So that's something that we will try to compete, and I understand is against the very entrenched let's say, a competitor, which is Lilly, but also I emphasize multiple times that when it comes to commercial capabilities, Pfizer is not Novo Nordisk. So we really got it a little bit easy with them in the competition.
Now on a very big opportunity, it is the switch studies that we are doing. When you reach your plateau with the GLP-1, we know that people either are getting off and most of them are getting significant weight back or they don't like that they have to do constantly weekly injections for the rest of their lives.
The switch studies, we have just to prove not that we are better. We just have to prove that we are not inferior when they switch so that people will not gain weight because now we are talking at a plateau situation. And when they switch to hour, they compare to if they continue to the Lilly or any other weekly option that exists over there. And I think we will achieve significant number of switches just because of this convenience.
So that's in the beginning,'28, we are launching, and this is how we see it commercially. I remind all that we have two major innovations. One of them certainly we will present this year. One, it is the amylin, amylin monotherapy and amylin combination that we expect to achieve very high levels of weight reduction. We are still haven't seen the whole game of the data. But what you will see this year probably will be 24, 28 weeks of weight loss, both in monotherapy and in combination. And that will be our answer to the high level of -- to the high level of weight loss or to using lower doses to achieve the same, but with very, very benign profile.
So -- and then the third innovation that is coming, it is -- we are having seen already data because we are working on every quarter, injection of GLP-1 that. So far, it looks promising, early days, but the pharmaco, it's in the clinic and the pharmacokinetics that we see are very positive.
So I guess just on the amylin combo, do you feel like that is the added efficacy that you could potentially see with that is needed to drive meaningful market share?
You need options because the market is having different segments. So the very high weight loss, it is for those that only need, which is the very high BMI is not for the masses, right?
For the masses, they want something that is comparable to 15% to 20%, 20%, 20 plus, which is the current offerings from semaglutide to tirzepatide, but we believe that they want it in a convenient way, which is coming now.
Also, you spoke a little bit about the competition from AbbVie that also could come as the monthly. Because when it comes to monthly, Lilly or Novo, I haven't seen anything, but they have...
Amgen you mean.
Amgen, not AbbVie, I'm sorry, Lilly or Novo, they don't have anything on the monthly. So it is only Amgen has something in the monthly. I haven't seen data, months from the Amgen but -- so it's not fair to make general statements. But what I have -- from what I have seen, the two weaknesses, it is once the dose that they need to use. It's very high. Don't forget that our injection, even in the high dose, the 9.6 milligram is half a ml subcutaneous. When you try to put the dose from Amgen, you need 2.5 at least. So it's very inconvenient, I think, an injection of 2.5 subcutaneously.
The second is they need to fix their tolerability profile was very big. So maybe they will fix both of and then they will compete with us. But so far, I feel very confident that we have the better product.
What can you tell us, Albert, on how you're thinking about pricing dynamics evolving in that area, just particularly with berobenatide significant COGS and API advantage that provides a significant scalability advantage over competitors. So how should we help us sort of frame that for us?
Yes. One, it is the scalability that you said. When you are a factor of 10 to 14 or 15 in terms of syringes that you need and in terms of API that you need you understand that the very high level of investments that we see at Novo or Lilly are doing in manufacturing capacity are not really needed from us. Actually, all are planning for very high volumes of these products with marginal improvements in our current manufacturing network, which is very, very big in the U.S. we should be able to do it. So the CapEx that we need to invest in order to make that happen is not as high as with everybody else.
Now the pricing of the product I think we saw prices going down in the U.S. That was in line when we did the Metsera deal with what we were expecting. What came as a positive on that was that we had the Medicare volumes that we didn't expect when we did the deal. But the big surprise for all of us was international markets.
In international markets, the obesity is taking off very rapidly. It's completely out of pocket the business. There is nowhere almost or very little reimbursement of this market. There's a huge difference when you launch a product in Europe, usually after the approval, you need from 6 months to the first country, a year plus most countries and then 2 years, the laggards to get approval. So reimbursement, you have approval, but you don't have reimbursement. When it is cash market, it is the next day. But you go and you sell. So that's one.
Also, the prices that we have seen in Germany, in France, they are high prices, but they are in -- of the market. So with all of that in mind, there were some -- I think we will continue with the pricing like that. And clearly, as you said, we have the cost of goods advantage.
We agree on the international market. We just took our TAM forecast higher for that market.
And keep in mind that Pfizer is probably among all the players the strongest commercial machine internationally, yes. There is no one that has international commercial infrastructure like Pfizer has in every single country basically.
Let's maybe Albert pivot to oncology. Sigvotatug specifically, that is a readout that's getting a lot of attention, given its imminence and the importance of this readout Phase III second-line non-small cell lung cancer. So maybe just level set us on your expectations both for this trial and the first line trial that's going to read out after this one, given that many investors are seeing this as highly consequential for broader sentiment.
Yes. And they are right. This is -- if it is positive, could be a very, very big opportunity because it comes to the lung cancer, which is the #1 killer in terms of cancers, and it is the largest market right now. There are two studies, as you said. One is second line and the other is first line. The potential of the first line is bigger than the potential of the second line, of course. The second line is now, first line is in a year. Second line, it is monotherapy. First line, it is combination therapy. Probability of success in monotherapy is lower than probability of success in combination therapy. I think combination therapy has pretty much derisked through the Padcev, and we see how the vedotin operates in conjunction with PD-1. And we feel very, very good about the probability of that success.
When it comes to second line, which is monotherapy against monotherapy no ADC so far was able to be successful. So the bar is much higher. And we will wait to see the results.
And the second-line trial is still on track for a midyear readout?
Yes.
Okay. Do you think the protocol amendment derisks that trial at all?
The protocol amendment was just because we wanted to provide more alpha power to the overall survival. So basically, it gives a little bit of a push to have a successful study. Because that is really what instead of betting if we miss overall survival, you can get progression-free survival. We said, let's go all in for overall survival, and we moved all the alpha there.
Okay. Maybe just sticking with oncology. Another big picture theme coming out of ASCO was just PD-1 VEGF bispecifics. We saw new OS data from SUMMIT and Akezo of ivonescimab as well as Phase II data from your own 4404 program. So I guess, high level, how does Pfizer view the ivonescimab read-through to the class broadly speaking and your own program? And then anything you want to highlight regarding 4404?
Absolutely. For us, it's a very, very big program with, again, eight Phase III studies, and it is high promising opportunity. It's the first time that you have a class that is challenging the dominance of the previous king, which was the PD-1s, the KEYTRUDA is going to go. So we didn't have anything that could come better or close to KEYTRUDA and now we have.
Now in our case, we have presented a small number of patients data, right? So it's not that we have an extensive. But the data that we have seen are best-in-class. I will give you a comparison. First of all, we all know you can do cross-trial comparisons, but it is important to understand the magnitude, if the whole thing holds, right?
But we had in the enriched PD-L1 population. I'm taking the maximum of the efficacy of all three. We had 77% response rate in our own, KEYTRUDA has demonstrated 45%, right, in this enriched 50% population. And that's their highest, right? Also our highest.
And Summit demonstrated 60%. So 45%, 60%, 75%. And the same superiority we have seen in the overall survival of the duration. So I'm very optimistic that the class could do well, and we can be first in class.
Now for us, this class has also a strategic advantage. Because it's not only that we go for the monotherapies of the PD-1 VEGF, but we go for the combination therapies with our Seagen ADC line. As you know, and I spoke about it, we have high synergistic effects when we use the vedotin, which is the payload of the Seagen ADCs. It is the same in Padcev. It is the same in SV in combination with PD-1s. So the studies that we are doing right now will be in combination with PD-1 with VEGF and the ADCs. So we see the synergistic effect. So we go all-in in this group.
Certainly looking forward to hearing more about that progress. Albert, thank you very much for your time. We're right at about the hour. I really appreciate all your candid conversation, and thank you for being with us.
Thank you very much.
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Pfizer — Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Pfizer — Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Pfizer präsentiert die Transformation nach COVID: stärkeres kommerzielles Setup, AI-gestützte Effizienz, Fokus auf Onkologie, Adipositas und China‑Partnerschaften.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Management betont erfolgreiche Post‑COVID‑Umstellung: wiederhergestellte kommerzielle Stärke, deutliche Kostenreduktion durch KI‑Einsatz und ein breit aufgestelltes, vielversprechendes Pipeline‑Portfolio (Onkologie, Adipositas, Impfstoffe).
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Onkologie: Mehrere wichtige Datenpunkte (u.a. Lornatinib, Padcev, Talazoparib) und ein umfangreiches PD‑1/VEGF‑Bispezifikum‑Programm; Kombinationen mit Seagen‑ADC geplant.
- Adipositas: Berobenatide zeigt GLP‑1‑vergleichbare Wirksamkeit, guter Tolerabilitätsmix, Plan für Wochen‑ und rasch folgende Monatsdosen; zehn Phase‑III‑Studien initiiert.
- KI & China: KI‑Rollout soll Effizienz und Kommerzialisierung verbessern; China als Quelle schneller, kostengünstiger Innovation und zugleich strategischer Wettbewerbsfaktor.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Pipeline‑Updates: Berobenatide wird in 10 Phase‑III‑Studien geführt; Sigvotatug (nicht‑kleinzelliges Lungenkarzinom) Second‑line Readout mittig im Jahr; PD‑1/VEGF‑Programme und Seagen‑Synergien vorangetrieben.
- Guidance‑Kommentar: Keine formelle Anhebung, aber Management sieht Upside in Nicht‑COVID‑Geschäft; COVID‑Schätzung konservativ bei ~$5 Mrd.
- KI‑Zeithorizont: Skaleneffekte und tiefere Transformation erwartet bis Ende 2027 mit spürbaren Erträgen 2028.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Kapitalallokation: Verbleibende M&A‑Kapazität ~ $7 Mrd. ohne Verwässerung; Fokus auf Bolt‑ons, größere Deals wären möglich bei Bedarf.
- Regulatorik & Preise: MFN/Tariff‑Risiken 2025 weitgehend adressiert; FDA/CDC‑Leitung als weniger besorgniserregend, Preisdruck bleibt Wachsamkeitsfaktor.
- Kommerzialisierung & Wettbewerb: Diskussionen zu Markteintrittsstrategie für Adipositas (Preis, COGS‑Vorteil, internationale Cash‑Märkte) sowie zur Bedeutung bevorstehender Onkologie‑Readouts.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Impact für Aktionäre: Call stärkt das Thesis‑Narrativ: glaubhafte operative Erholung, klare R&D‑Fokusverschiebung und mehrere near‑term Katalysatoren (Onkologie‑Readouts, Adipositas‑Launches, KI‑Effizienz). Hauptrisiken bleiben COVID‑Volatilität, regulatorische/politische Eingriffe und intensiver globaler Wettbewerb, insbesondere aus China.
Pfizer — Special Call - Pfizer Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Good day everyone and welcome to Pfizer Flash Live from ADA, spotlighting berobenatide, an investigational potential first-in-class monthly GLP-1 receptor agonist peptide. Today's event is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Francesca DeMartino, Chief Investor Relations Officer and Senior Vice President. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Thank you, and good morning, everyone, both here in New Orleans and on the web. I'm Francesca DeMartino, Chief Investor Relations Officer.
On behalf of the Pfizer team, thank you so much for joining us. Today's event will be recorded and available for replay on our IR website at pfizer.com. As a reminder, our Pfizer Flash series is intended to serve as an educational deep dive into our pipeline, products and people. Each event spotlights a specific product, therapeutic or growth initiative and gives you an opportunity to hear from our business leaders. Today's session will begin with a presentation followed by live Q&A.
As a reminder, this call is intended only for the investment community, including our sell-side analysts and institutional investors. I want to note that on today's call, we'll be making forward-looking statements. I encourage you to view Slide 2 in our presentation and the disclosures in our SEC filings, all of which are available on our IR website at pfizer.com. Forward-looking statements on the call are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties, speak only as of the call's original date, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of the statements. With that, let's get started.
Obesity is a key area of focus for Pfizer. Last November, we completed our acquisition of Metsera and are now advancing a differentiated diverse pipeline anchored by the investigational ultra-long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonist, berobenatide, formerly known as MET-097 or PF-3944. Earlier today, key opinion leaders presented new data from 3 Phase IIb trials of berobenatide at the American Diabetes Association Scientific Sessions. Today's presentation will build off of that symposium. In the room, I'm joined by Pfizer's R&D leader, Jim List. Jim, who is our Chief Internal Medicine Officer, will review highlights of the new data as well as berobenatide's development plan and target profile.
I'm also joined by Navin Katyal, who leads Pfizer's U.S. primary care, including responsibility for translating Pfizer's global obesity commercial opportunity from strategy to launch. In addition to obesity, his portfolio also includes Eliquis, Nurtec, Paxlovid and vaccines. From Navin, you'll hear about what berobenatide's projected profile could mean for its market potential. With that, I will hand it over to Jim.
Thank you, Francesca. It's a pleasure to be here. Let me start with the key takeaways from the ADA expert symposium that you just saw. We believe berobenatide has the potential to be the first monthly GLP-1 peptide approved for obesity and related comorbidities. Based on our Phase IIb data, berobenatide has the potential to combine efficacy on par with tirzepatide with favorable GI tolerability in a patient-friendly presentation that provides convenience and scalability advantages. Informed by these Phase IIb data, we're executing an extensive pivotal program. 10 Phase III studies are expected to advance this year, and I'm going to review these later in the presentation.
Through these, we aim to develop berobenatide into a foundational metabolic medicine, both as a monotherapy and as the backbone for combination peptide therapy. Now a reminder of the purpose of Phase II. The objectives in Phase II were to identify the right doses for Phase III, to test titration schemes and to test both weekly and monthly dosing. And we have positive results across all 3 of these objectives. I'm going to go over the efficacy and the tolerability before handing it to Navin to highlight berobenatide's positioning, if approved, with our target profile of a first-in-class monthly peptide delivered with a simple subcutaneous auto-injector. Then I'll go over next steps and our development strategy before we open it up for Q&A.
Given that we just came from the ADA symposium, I won't rehash the entire Phase II data package. For anyone interested or who missed the symposium, on-demand viewing will be available through ADA's website starting on June 10, and details from VESPER-1, 2 and 3 will be available as an appendix to our Pfizer slides. Turning to efficacy. We believe monthly berobenetide can deliver weight loss that is on par with weekly tirzepatide and potentially superior to semaglutide. Supporting that belief are our Phase IIb results viewed alongside data from approved weekly therapies with the caveat that cross-trial comparisons have inherent limitations that preclude one from drawing definitive conclusions. A key point to make before discussing the comparisons, it's critical that these be made at match time points and across relevant doses.
So when we look at 4.8 milligrams of monthly berobenatide, which is our medium Phase III dose, it's viewed alongside the medium approved doses of semaglutide and tirzepatide, which are 2.4 milligrams and 10 milligrams, respectively. And even there, it's not quite apples-to-apples because we're talking about half of our top Phase III dose compared to 2/3 of the top tirzepatide dose. When we do this, here's what we see. For placebo-corrected weight change at week 28, berobenatide at the median Phase III monthly dose of 4.8 milligrams delivered 12.3% and 12.0% weight loss across the 2 VESPER-3 arms. Semaglutide 2.4 milligrams weekly in STEP 1 gave approximately 9%. tirzepatide 10 milligrams weekly in SURMOUNT-1 gave approximately 12.5%.
And again, that's looking at half the top Phase III dose of berobenatide, but 2/3 of the top dose of tirzepatide. In just a moment, I'll show you the first clinical data at our top Phase III dose.
VESPER-2 is our Phase IIb trial of weekly berobenatide in participants with obesity or overweight and with type 2 diabetes. In the trial, we observed placebo-corrected reductions in weight of up to 9.5% and placebo-corrected reductions of HbA1c of up to 2.0%, both at week 28. Those results were achieved with a maintenance dose of 1.6 milligrams weekly. This time, we're talking about 2/3 of our top Phase III dose.
So again, there's potential headroom above this dose where the results were generated, and we look forward to seeing our Phase III results. On a cross-trial basis, this compares well to both the 10 and 15-milligram doses of tirzepatide when you look at the same time point within their pivotal SURMOUNT-2 trial in the type 2 diabetes population, and those results are noted on this slide. VESPER-2 and VESPER-3 were only partially up the dose response curve for efficacy and neither study went up to the high Phase III dose of berobenatide, which is 2.4 milligrams weekly or 9.6 milligrams monthly. Our first clinical data with the high dose came in the extension of our Phase II VESPER-1 study.
As shown here, participants who escalated from placebo to the high dose of 2.4 milligrams berobenatide weekly had substantial weight loss with a mean change of approximately 16% at 32 weeks. And the curve continued its steep downward trajectory throughout the entire time period, suggesting, as you would expect, a greater magnitude of weight loss will be seen with a higher dose. This first glimpse of high-dose data conforms to our expectations. Based on modeling, we expect the high dose to drive meaningfully greater weight loss than the mid or low doses. Now perhaps the best way to make cross-trial comparisons in light of their limitations is to leverage as much data as are available and build the model-based meta-analysis, and that's exactly what we've done here.
We integrated a data set of 69 weight loss trials incorporating aggregated data from over 32,000 patients.
This approach integrates all the available data using a mathematical model that accounts for pharmacology and describes the weight loss trajectory over time and the dose response relationship. Now using this approach, we predicted weight loss at 72 weeks for berobenatide's high monthly Phase III dose compared to the highest approved doses of tirzepatide and semaglutide. The modeling suggests berobenatide can deliver weight loss similar to tirzepatide with point estimates less than 1% apart and potentially better than semaglutide. And that prediction holds whether we're talking about weekly or monthly dosing, which generate equivalent average exposure over the dosing interval.
At the bottom of the chart, you'll see we also predicted 72-week weight loss for monthly MariTide And it's honestly very hard to say very much there because there's limited data publicly available, and that's reflected in the wide confidence interval. What gives us a lot of confidence is that the data we generated with the 2.4 milligram high dose and the VESPER-1 extension align extremely well with the model predictions. It validates our approach, and it validates our expectations for Phase III. Turning now to tolerability. And remember, one of the purposes of Phase II is to understand the relationship between tolerability, dose and titration. That's the lens to keep in mind through the next few slides. We're quite pleased with what we've seen.
In the VESPER-1 extension, evaluating weekly, every other week and monthly dosing intervals, we observed excellent GI tolerability. 96% of participants reported no key GI treatment-emergent adverse events or only mild ones, and that's nausea, vomiting, diarrhea constipation. And in the arm that went from placebo up to our high dose in the extension, the vomiting rate was under 20%. And notably, in the extension, there were no treatment discontinuations due to treatment-emergent GI adverse events in any of the arms. VESPER-3, berobenatide was also well tolerated. 83% of participants experienced no or only mild key GI treatment-emergent adverse events with vomiting rates in the low to mid-20s across active arms.
Fewer than 10% of participants in the berobenatide groups discontinued treatment due to emergent treatment-emergent adverse events, and that's across the 215 participants who were randomized to berobenatide.
Now importantly, really importantly, these results were achieved in trials where down titration was not permitted. So if a patient experienced GI tolerability issues, they couldn't lower their dose. They had to muscle through it or they had to discontinue. So even though the data show a good tolerability profile here, in Phase III, because we allow for down titration, we expect to see an even better tolerability profile. And with our learnings from Phase II, we expect our Phase III titration scheme again, should yield an even better tolerability profile than the already very good profile that we've seen in Phase II.
Now this slide breaks down vomiting events in the VESPER-1 extension. All the events are shown here by week with severity color-coded, mild events in green, moderate in yellow and severe in red. The top 2 rows are participants who entered the extension after receiving berobenatide weekly for 28 weeks in Part A of the study. They continued at the same weekly dose for the first 8 weeks of the extension and then transitioned to monthly dosing for 24 weeks. The data shown here are for the 3.2 and 4.8 milligram dose groups, again, our low and medium Phase III doses. So this gives us insight into the expected tolerability profile of monthly berobenatide in participants switching from weekly to monthly treatment. The vast majority of events were mild, none were severe. And while there was a mild transient increase at the point of the monthly transition, it rapidly improved with continued dosing.
This, along with the VESPER-3 data, provides the critical insight that guides our Phase III strategy for the transition to monthly dosing and specifically, smaller increments in dose than were used in Phase II should help address any tolerability concerns that happen at the weekly to monthly transition. At the bottom, we see the placebo switch group escalating to the high dose. Again, the vast majority of events were mild and none were severe. Similarly, for our placebo-controlled VESPER-3 trial, which evaluated the switch from weekly to monthly maintenance dosing, we saw a slight transient increase in events at the monthly transition, which rapidly improved with continued dosing. And as we look ahead to Phase III, as I said, we learned from Phase II and implemented designs for Phase III that should help ensure a smooth dose and PK transition to optimize tolerability at the point of the switch from weekly to monthly dosing.
I'll talk more about Phase III shortly. But first, let me hand it to Navin to talk about what berobenatide's projected profile could mean in the obesity landscape. Navin?
Right. Thank you, Jim. So as Jim has covered, we've seen a competitive efficacy and tolerability profile with berobenatide. And combined with its convenient monthly dosing, we're very excited about the commercial opportunity that sets up for us. And I'm now going to spend a few minutes on what signals we have about the desire for a monthly product, where we think berobenatide could fit in a patient's journey and the commercial principles guiding our build. So starting with the market. It's clear that the prevailing focus in this category is on who's leading, but I think what gets less attention is how much of it has yet to be served. And the fact is that most eligible patients still are not on therapy at all and most who are on starting don't stay on.
And that's why we believe the commercial opportunity for berobenatide is so significant. It has a highly competitive profile, as Jim just outlined. It's designed for scale. There's a large and growing monthly market. It's well positioned across the full patient journey, and we have the commercial capabilities to serve this market from day 1. And starting with the molecule itself. Simply put, berobenatide is built to be supplied at scale with notable COGS advantages. The API requirements, as you can see here, is 125 milligrams per patient per year, which is significantly lower than the other monthly programs in development. Monthly dosing also means a lot less device, a lot less packaging, a lot less cold chain or waste than weekly therapies.
And so ultimately, that means we need a lot less manufacturing capacity to serve the same patient population and that we can distribute it more efficiently. And I think importantly, the 0.5 ml injection volume must us deliver it in a familiar auto-injector that patients and providers are very familiar with and very trust. So taken together, berobenatide is expected to be available in formats people already know, already trust, it's highly scalable. And that, of course, is really crucial in a massive growing category. Now turning to the market. We've actually done a lot of research with both providers and patients to understand what a profile like berobenatide with competitive efficacy and tolerability, but in a monthly regimen would mean for them.
And I think what's clear is that upon seeing that profile, that value proposition becomes super intuitive to them. We see that 51% of treatment-naive patients prefer monthly as their long-term destination when comparing it against the existing injectable and oral options. And on the provider side, 86% of those surveyed said they would be more likely to switch their patients to monthly berobenetide when shown hypothetical positive switch trial data. And that projected switching intent rises 1.7x. So ultimately, we believe berobenatide is going to have 2 distinct shots on goal. First, for new patients who want a highly effective therapy and who know these therapies are not a one and done and want something with less long-term burden.
And then second, for existing patients on weekly GLPs who want something that feels more sustainable than dosing every single week or every single day, for example, on the orals to maintain what they've achieved. And we've built Phase III trials designed to generate evidence to serve both, and Jim is going to walk through that shortly. So in addition to starting or switching, another substantial part of this opportunity and a critical need, I would add, is keeping people on therapy for the long term. Today, about 65% of people without type 2 diabetes who initiate a weekly GLP discontinue within a year. And there's real consequences of that, as we all know. In fact, 2/3 of the weight patients lost in the pivotal semaglutide trial was regained within a year of stopping. And then we also know about this market and are encouraged by that the vast majority of lapsed users say they would consider coming back.
But I think what is missing right now is a regimen built for sustainable long-term use, and that's exactly what we believe monthly is built for because what we've seen time and time again is that less frequent dosing has driven adherence improvements across multiple chronic conditions. And so when we put all of this together, we expect berobenatide to compete across the entire patient journey. And in a market expected to reach well over $100 billion, where there's fewer than 10% of eligible adults on therapy today, we're super excited about the potential to unlock real growth by bringing more patients in who haven't been willing to start, by serving those who want to switch to something more sustainable and, of course, keeping people on therapy longer. And finally, just a note about our commercial model. There's a number of principles that guide how we're approaching this. There's 3 that I'm going to pull out today.
First is our integrated direct-to-consumer experience, which will be in market and ready from the start, building on our Pfizer for all platform that today connects patients with treatments for migraine, vaccine deployment and more. And second, we're building a model that serves both reimbursed and cash channels. And importantly, we're going to be set up to compete in cash from day 1.
Third, we're designing for persistence, building for the long-term patient experience, not just for initiation. And behind all of this is, of course, the Pfizer primary care engine. A primary care field force that has been ranked #1 for 7 years running in the industry, existing relationships across more than 2/3 of the providers writing meaningful prescriptions today in the GLP class and of course, deep experience engaging hundreds of millions of people in large audience primary care markets. And finally, I'm going to note that we've been here before. We didn't invent the statin. Lipitor was not the first. Eliquis was not the first oral anticoagulant. Prevnar was not the first pneumococcal vaccine. But in each case, we built the evidence, we built the commercial model, and we built the franchise that came to set a new standard. And we're really confident in our ability to make a significant impact in the market with our obesity franchise as well. So with that, Jim, I'll turn it back to you to discuss our next steps.
Thank you.
Thanks, Navin. Let's talk about the Phase III program now. We have 2 Phase III studies of weekly berobenatide already underway, randomized patients and recruiting really, really well, VESPER-4 and VESPER-5. Both enrolled participants with overweight or obesity, VESPER-4 excludes participants with type 2 diabetes, VESPER-5 enrolls participants with type 2 diabetes. The primary endpoint for both is percent change from baseline in body weight at week 64. One design point worth flagging. VESPER-4 and 5 use a simple dose escalation scheme with 1, 2 or 3 titration steps to reach the low, medium or high maintenance dose.
That compares favorably to currently approved weekly chronic weight management therapies, which require 5 steps to reach the top maintenance dose. So we're evaluating a streamlined path for getting the maintenance dose, making it easier for patients while, as I said, incorporating the option to deescalate for GI adverse events. VESPER-6 is the pivotal trial for monthly berobenatide.
The study is now up on clinicaltrials.gov and open for enrollment. VESPER-6 includes 2 cohorts, a main cohort without type 2 diabetes and a parallel cohort with type 2 diabetes. And the primary endpoint is the percentage change in body weight at week 72 in the main cohort. The initiation of monthly dosing in VESPER-6 incorporates the learnings from Phase II. So going back to Phase II, In VESPER-3, participants moved directly from a weekly dose to a fourfold higher monthly dose, for example, from a 1.2 milligram weekly dose directly to a 4.8 milligram monthly dose.
And we saw good tolerability with that approach, but a detailed analysis of the data suggests that we can potentially do better. We can expect to decrease that small and transient increment in GI adverse events that we saw at the weekly to monthly transition point by decreasing the size of the dose step-up. So in VESPER-6 the evaluated weekly to monthly step-ups will range from 2 to 2.7 fold as opposed to 4 fold. So that's a much more gradual transition by design.
And you'll notice it's 3 simple titration steps to get to monthly dosing and 5 steps in total to reach the top monthly dose of 9.6 milligrams with flexibility in how you get there. And again, in Phase III, we're allowing dose deescalation in response to GI adverse events. We expect this combination, smaller upward titration steps plus allowing for down titration if needed, will make our really good tolerability profile that we saw in Phase II even better in Phase III. Now as you can see, VESPER 4, 5 and 6 are just the start. We're planning to advance a total of 10 berobenatide Phase III trials this year, and that includes a switch study to look at transitioning patients from approved weekly therapies directly to monthly berobenatide. We're targeting a series of potential approvals beginning with weekly dosing in 2028 with an approval for monthly berobenatide as a fast follow to that. Our pivotal program also targets obstructive sleep apnea and knee osteoarthritis to comorbidities where other GLP-1s have shown clinical success and where berobenatide has the potential to uniquely bring a monthly dosing option for patients.
As we've shown you, berobenatide has a potentially compelling profile as a single agent by itself and it's the driver behind which we're building out our research and development pipeline and metabolism. And we're also really excited about berobenatide as a foundational partner to evaluate combination therapy with other monthly peptides that we're developing. The most advanced of these combinations is berobenatide plus our investigational ultra-long-acting amylin analog, 3945, formerly known as MET233. 3945 is a very similar half-life to berobenatide and its solubility profile supports combining it with berobenatide. We expect to report early data on our ultra-long-acting amylin analog and on the combination with berobenatide later this year. We see the potential for this combination to deliver category-leading weight loss with the convenience of well-tolerated monthly dosing.
The Phase IIb study evaluating this combination SOLIS-1 is open for enrollment and it's up on clinicaltrials.gov. Looking beyond berobenatide programs, we recognize that not every obesity medicine will be right for every patient. And that's why we're building a differentiated pipeline with multiple mechanisms and modalities, injectables with the potential for monthly or even longer dosing intervals, oral agents and combinations. Our goal is to address the many needs of patients across weight management profiles and dosing preferences with our long-term commitment to obesity and to metabolic health. With that, I'll turn it back to Francesca.
Thanks, Jim, and thanks, Navin. To summarize, our Phase IIb data provide proof of concept for berobenatide as a potential first-in-class monthly GLP-1 receptor agonist peptide that we believe can deliver weight loss similar to tirzepatide and potentially better than semaglutide. Alongside robust efficacy, we aim to pair favorable tolerability and convenient monthly delivery to develop a foundational metabolic medicine as a single agent and backbone for future combination therapies. And with berobenatide scalability, Pfizer's leading primary care field force and a carefully designed commercial model, we believe we are well positioned to have a substantial impact on obesity and metabolic health, subject to clinical success and regulatory approval.
With that, we will begin the Q&A session with Jim and Navin. As a reminder, our Pfizer Flash series is designed as an educational deep dive into our pipeline programs. I'll therefore kindly ask that participants keep questions focused only on berobenatide's program covered today. Please avoid questions that would require us to provide forward-looking financial projections. While we're happy to clarify any information shared during the presentation, we will not be offering estimates beyond what has already been communicated. And I appreciate your understanding on that. With that, we're ready to take the first question, starting with those in the room. Please raise your hand, wait for the microphone and introduce yourself prior to asking your question.
All right. Chris Schott, let's start with you, JPMorgan.
2. Question Answer
I just wanted to talk a little bit about the higher dose that you'll be looking at in the Phase III. How do you think about the tolerability profile there? It seems -- I know you're trying to improve on the lower doses, but we're in kind of that low 20s percent vomit rate. I'm just wondering with that bigger step up to that higher dose, like what's your modeling suggesting what that profile could look like? And maybe just more holistically, it seems like one of the themes from this conference is this idea of not necessarily fully maximizing weight loss but getting kind of this balance of tolerability and acceptable weight loss. And I'm just going to think about the 3 kind of doses you're moving forward, like how important is that to the program versus some of the ones we already are seeing at the lower side?
So why don't I start with that? But I think it's also in part a question about the need for the flexibility in multiple doses on the market too. So maybe Navin can follow me. But -- so from a tolerability standpoint, the data are the data. The data that we have are from going up to 2.4 milligrams weekly. We don't have data right now on the 9.6 monthly. What we did see in the 2.4 milligrams weekly is there really was great tolerability there. So it doesn't seem that the dose per se is what drives tolerability. And that might actually be because once you get up to a certain dose with this potent of a GLP-1 with this long half-life and these pharmacokinetic properties, you might be essentially tonically saturating the GLP-1 receptor so that it doesn't really give you any more tolerability issues once your body has gotten used to that.
So then the question is, how do you get up there? And I will say just a note, the reason we have a dose that's 4x the weekly dose in monthly isn't just by multiplying by 4. It's actually based on very complex pharmacokinetic calculations to get the same average exposure over the time duration. It turns out to be exactly 4x the dose, which is convenient for us. So then the trick is what we have realized through both VESPER-1 extension and VESPER-3 is that when you make the step-up to monthly, if you're making that step up, there's a big jump, a fourfold jump, you get some tolerability signal. Not terrible, but you do get a little bit of a signal there. And so that's where going up to that 9.6, it's a gradual titration scheme up -- and there's 2 different schemes depending on if you already titrated up to 2.4 milligrams and you're happy at that high dose and you decide, hey, I want to go -- I want to switch to monthly.
There's one titration scheme for that. There's another one if you say, I want to get to monthly as fast as I can, and we'll see how high I want to go with that and you can titrate up to 9.6 that way. But in both cases, it's a gradual titration scheme. So the Phase III data will tell the answer, but for what we know now and the data we have, I think it's very promising to be very well titrated and very well tolerated.
Now do patients need all of this weight loss? As you know that the drug is on the market now. Most patients don't get to 15 milligrams of tirzepatide Part of that is probably because they don't tolerate it. And part of that is probably because they don't want that much weight loss or need that much weight loss. We may see a very different dynamic when it's more convenient to give it monthly and when it's very well tolerated. However, there's a lot of different needs for different patients. And so I think the low and medium doses are going to be very, very important as well. But on the market...
I mean I think that's spot on. I think the thing I would add is, to your point, there's efficacy, there's tolerability. The 2 things I would also add in terms of dimensions that are part of the considerations that are convenience and flexibility, right? And so if you think about the profile that's kind of emerging here from a clinical profile, as Jim highlighted, we've got a very competitive efficacy and obviously, tolerability profile that we described today that's just as good as the leading agent. But on the sort of flexibility and on the convenience front, what you get with berobenatide is the flexibility to sort of choose your own adventure, right? So you can do -- if you want to stay on weekly, you can stay on weekly. If you want to escalate up to monthly, you get to escalate up on the monthly and then there's multiple doses you can do that with.
I think when we look at the research, both with consumers and the provider base. What you hear sort of over and over again in spades is you want flexibility and control, right? So you can optimize that tolerability and that efficacy. And when we actually put the titration schedule in front of KOLs, HCPs, et cetera, that was sort of the theme that we got over and over again is, okay, I'm getting flexibility, I'm getting control. Now I can optimize this for my patient and sort of get them to the right sweet spot for efficacy and also for tolerability. And I think the sort of 3 themes that came out from that is, okay, I have now control over strength. I have control over titration schedule options, and I also have control over the frequency of the dosing. So that resonates, I think, really, really well with both consumers and with providers.
Okay. Thanks for the question. Dave Risinger from Leerink.
So I have 2 questions. The second one is quick. So could you just talk a little bit about -- sorry, could you talk a little bit about your vision for a commercial launch as a weekly and the messaging to consumers at that time? And then with respect to the China-only switch study, why is it China only? And can that be added to the U.S. label?
So I'll take the second one and then Navin. The Switch study is global. We are running a China study and a China program, a Japan program, but the Switch study is a global -- part of a global program. We see that as really important for patients who are -- a lot of patients already on weekly drug. And there one thing that, as Navin said, 65% of patients don't make it a year. So there's going to be people who are like, I can't do this every week. They're going to want to be -- have that option to switch. And so we want to bring that broadly worldwide.
Yes. And then just your question around the commercial model and the weekly. So maybe I'll just start with sort of the rhythm.
So as Jim described earlier, we're going to launch with the weekly, the monthly comes as a fast follow. The weekly on its own, as Jim described earlier, we see as competitive in its own right, leading efficacy aligned with sort of the top agent in the market today and the same on the tolerability front. I think the important thing about that weekly launch, though, is it gives sort of early experience to both consumers and providers about the product, the molecule, berobenatide. And then all those folks who get on to the weekly product are now eligible with the fast follow launch of the monthly, right?
That full base becomes immediately eligible base. to now make that decision, right, and provide that flexibility and that option to switch over. And then I go back to my point earlier, which is anyone who is on this product now, it's a highly differentiated product in the sense that you now have an option of doing this on a weekly basis or on a monthly basis. We expect most will move over to monthly because, again, that value proposition is so incredibly intuitive.
The minute you put the profile in front of both consumers and providers and you sort of show what the existing profiles look like from an oral perspective, from a weekly injectable perspective, there's sort of like a very intuitive light bulb that goes off because you think about the fact that, okay, this is a long-term chronic thing. If you fall off of it, you're going to regain weight again. And that sort of notion of, do I want to be tethered to something for 52 times a week for perpetuity? Do I want to be tethered to something 365 days a year for perpetuity? Or can I do this in a sustainable way, just 13 times a year. And if that light bulb goes off and then they sort of develop that preference. So that's sort of the way we think about the rhythm of this and the launch of this and how it will evolve.
Dave, I don't know if it was confusing that on the slide, you might have looked at Switch and China was next to it.
But just as a point of clarification, each box is its own trial. So you'll see that's the 10 Phase IIIs, just for clarification.
Okay.
All right. Vamil, let's go to you, Guggenheim.
Vamil Divan from Guggenheim. So maybe just 2, I appreciate getting your insights here today. And just building on the market research that you've done, just curious if you can share sort of how the market -- how you think the market is going to evolve from here, thinking about injectables, but also the oral -- so what percentage of the market do you think would be actually injectables? Yes. 5 years from now? And then related to that, obviously, you talked about your field force and the #1 ranking you've had for 7 years. How do you think about the commercial model from a field force perspective versus more of a direct-to-consumer that we're seeing emerging.
Absolutely. So in terms of the evolution of the sort of mix, it's hard to have a crystal ball and predict exactly what's going to happen. I do think that -- I think it's broadly believed that the injectables will be a larger part of the market. I do -- what we've observed about the marketplace so far, though, is, I guess, a few things. The first is we know that ultimately, people want flexibility, they want control. That's what we think are a big sweet spot and big strong suit that we have here. Obviously, you want to have a great tolerability and efficacy profile.
That's also what's emerging here. And then there's this very big sort of differentiation, which is I have now a sustainable option, right, where I don't have to be tethered to something 52 times a year or 365 days a year, right? So that's sort of like, I guess, the foundation of this. I think that the other thing that we -- when we look at our research that the light bulb that goes off is, yes, there is convenience with orals.
And by the way, that convenience with orals has unlocked more patients. We've seen that a big bulk of the patients that have come into this market are not switchers from injectables. They're sort of naive to GLPs. So that has become sort of a step change in unlock. We expect the same with a monthly injectable. But I think the key here is the life that also goes off is I can now get even more convenience because I just have to do this once a month. And by the way, I don't have to make a trade-off on efficacy like I do with the orals or a trade-off on fasting requirements like I do have to do with a certain oral as well, right?
So that becomes another unlock and I think becomes part of the value proposition. So it's hard to say like exactly what percent of the segment will be oral versus injectable. But as more innovations like this come along where the sort of dosing burden is a big step change reduction. We see that, I think, sort of persisting and sort of growing the market. Just in terms of where we believe berabenatide is well positioned in terms of the patient journey, I think we have a lot of conviction that this is going to unlock more initiation, just like the orals did because of what I just described. We think it's going to unlock switch when people see sort of the value proposition from that data. We think it's going to unlock maintenance because it's just -- there's this existential dread a bit of like being tethered to injecting yourself every single week for the rest of your life, right? So it's going to unlock that maintenance. And then perhaps even it stands to reason those who have lapsed. As I mentioned earlier, there's like 74% of people who are no longer on these things who have indicated that they're likely to jump back in.
And if you can think about a product where you don't have to do this again every single day or every single week, that becomes super interesting to people. So we think that's also going to happen. I think one last thing I'll just say in the commercial model, you asked about field force and sort of our consumer engagement. So as I said, the good thing about the Pfizer primary care field force in addition to it being ranked so highly is that we have a really long and sort of deep relationship with these prescribers, right?
So 2/3 of the prescribers that are writing meaningful GLP volume, we already know. We know them well. We call on them all the time, for example, with Eliquis. If you think about the tenure of our reps, the tenure of our reps in the primary care field force, 15 to 20 years. So these are folks who have seen the entire life cycle of Eliquis. These are folks who have engineered the shift from Eliquis being sort of a cardiologist-specific play to a broad primary care play. They really know this space. They've also carried Lipitor, right? So these are people who really know this space. They're experts in cardiometabolic. We think they're going to bring a lot to the table. And then on the consumer side, we are a powerhouse in this -- on that side as well. If you look at the ROIs on our advertising, it's double the benchmarks. I think really important, though, and beyond just sort of share of voice with engaging consumers, it's sort of how you bridge intent to action. And I think we've made a lot of, I think, great, great progress over, I'd say, the last 5 to 7 years in terms of how we engage consumers.
So you have to obviously have your DTC and all your traditional levers -- but you also have to be able to intervene and not just drive awareness, but actually move people and bridge people from intent to action. And if you look at, for example, what we've done in Pfizer for All, which is the sort of front door that we built a few years ago in migraine vaccines, et cetera, not only have we had 30 million visitors to that site, but we've built really specific high engagement interactions there. So for example, in the vaccine, just to give you a very quick example, we built an eligibility tool, so people can figure out what vaccine they're eligible for. We've also built an end-to-end way to book a vaccine. And what we've seen is a huge lift in terms of just, okay, I'm aware of these things, but now I'm actually bridging my intent to action, and we're going to plan to use that same sort of engagement model in obesity with Pfizer for All and all the other front doors that we built.
Let's go to Geoff from Citi.
A couple of questions. It's good to see some new indications into the mix in your developmental slide. How are you guys thinking about combinations even beyond that inflammation, oncology, neuropsych, et cetera? Can you take advantage of the monthly dosing and that in those arenas? And then I guess I get another commercial question. I guess the argument here is you have to compete with the weeklies to at least get people to start.
So how do you anticipate the differentiation on the weeklies? And then what is your assumption of the percent of people that move to monthly and the reason is it just because they want to -- is it pure convenience? Do they -- if they lose, let's say, 50% of their weight by -- is it just that they don't want any more.
They just want to maintain -- I just don't know if there's just not a lot of data on that on the folks that are averse to weekly injections, right?
Well, let me just take the first part very quickly. What we've disclosed here, obviously, isn't our entire Phase III program because some of these trials are called undisclosed, but we have our eye on all of these possible additional indications. There's over 200 diseases that are driven by obesity. We certainly have a great interest in some of the areas you mentioned, oncology, immunology, -- and whether it's combination approaches or even berobenatide as a monotherapy for improving these. We're looking at them all, but we can't do everything, obviously, and we need to be very thoughtful about where we bring differentiation. But as you pointed out, the monthly is a big differentiator because just like obesity, most of these diseases are also chronic diseases that need chronic treatment.
And so we have to find ways to keep patients on longer than just a year. Navin?
And then your point about the differentiation on the weekly piece, I think first and foremost, as we talked about earlier, we see the sort of efficacy and tolerability profile being as good as the best agent in the marketplace. In terms of differentiation, you could choose to initiate on a weekly product where you have no option to go to monthly like the incumbents, right, the products that exist today or you could choose to initiate on a weekly that gives you the optionality, right, to go on to a monthly. And I think that even for that short window of time where the weekly is on the market because monthly will fast follow. But even for that short period of time, right, it's going to be very enticing, I think, for a consumer or for a provider to say, you know what, I think I'm going to try this weekly because in just a little bit of time, I'm going to actually potentially escalate you to a monthly dose, right? You don't get that optionality if you start somebody on a weekly product that doesn't have the schedule.
Conor Mackay-- let's go over to BMO.
This is Conor here from Evans team at BMO. You guys made a few comparisons today in your slides to some of the other leading agents in the space. And we were just wondering, from a strategic perspective, as you think about competing with some of these assets, what are your views on potential head-to-head studies? And then thinking longer term for your combination approach, how would you think about potentially including an active comparator arm in some of those later phase studies?
So again, we haven't disclosed the entire Phase III program here. And for the combination, the next combination coming along, which is our combination with our ultra long-acting amylin analog -- we're just entering Phase IIb. So it's still early days there. We do anticipate that, that's going to have additive efficacy because that's what we saw in Phase I and a really good tolerability profile in monthly dosing. So then the question is, what's the advantage of doing head-to-head? And I'll tell you part of the thinking here is that we have great -- we have really great potential drugs here. And I think with showing very good efficacy and very good tolerability, I'm not sure that there's going to necessarily be a need to do head-to-head. It might be the other people's need to do head-to-head against us because we've got, in some ways, bigger fish to fry to go after other indications where chronic treatment with a monthly offering can really make a difference, again, across these many, many other things that are driven by obesity.
Okay. We probably have time for maybe one more.
Michael, you're here to represent Cowen, right?
Mike Nedelcovych from TD Cowen. I have 2, if that's all right. My first actually dovetails on something you just mentioned about the long-acting amylin. To what extent does Pfizer view amylin monotherapy as an important future category? I think the field is kind of excited about the possibility of perhaps lower efficacy but better tolerability. And then on the comments you made about weekly titration and transitioning to monthly, is there a potential path to monthly dosing from the start for berobenatide or perhaps for your prodrug? And if so, is that compelling? Or would that not be enough of an advantage to pursue?
So first of all, amylin monotherapy, it's early days in the sense of we're starting our Phase IIb trial where we will look at weekly and monthly dosing of monotherapy and combination therapy with berobenatide, and we're going to learn a lot there. I'm not sure I would characterize it as less efficacious because what we saw in Phase I with our particular amylin analog, which again is ultra-long acting was an incredibly high degree of efficacy for the duration that we dosed. So the question is, will it fulfill a need as a monotherapy in the market? We're going to learn more about what exactly it does through Phase IIb, and we'll make these decisions.
This again, are sort of investment decisions of where does this embarrassment of riches of this very large pipeline that we now have meet the actual needs in the marketplace. And then I'm trying to remember -- starting with this just monthly. So I'll let Navin answer it from its attractiveness commercially. From a standpoint of berobenatide itself, I think we've worked out through Phase II that it's optimal to do weekly dosing initially for the first 12 weeks.
Again, this has to do with the size of a jump that you're doing before you get, as you accumulate drug and exposure over time.
For the prodrug, it's an interesting question. prodrug is in Phase I. It's for those who aren't aware of it, -- it's an ultra long-acting version of berodenatide, again, in Phase I. So we need to learn a lot more about it, but there's a lot of potential advantages there to stretching out beyond monthly dosing and how you titrate there will be determined by the clinical data.
Okay. So in conclusion, I just want to thank my colleagues, Jim and Navin, for their contributions today. And also there are numerous Pfizer employees in the room that really helped bring this all to fruition. So thank you to all of you. And then last but not least, thank you so much for joining us live and on the phone. We really appreciate it. And the IR team is always available for any follow-up questions you may have. And with that, I'll just ask the operator to conclude the call.
And thank you.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This brings us to the end of today's program, and we appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.
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Pfizer — Special Call - Pfizer Inc.
Pfizer — Special Call - Pfizer Inc.
Pfizer stellt berobenatide vor: ein potenzieller first‑in‑class monatlicher GLP‑1‑Peptidwirkstoff mit vergleichbarer Wirksamkeit zu Tirzepatide und guter GI‑Verträglichkeit.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Takeaway: Berobenatide (GLP‑1‑Rezeptor‑Agonist, Glucagon‑like Peptide‑1) zeigte in Phase IIb starke Gewichtsverluste mit hoher GI‑Toleranz; Pfizer plant ein umfangreiches Phase‑III‑Programm mit wöchentlichen und monatlichen Regimen und sieht großes kommerzielles Potenzial durch einfache Skalierbarkeit und niedrigen API‑Bedarf.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Wirkprofil: Mittlere/hohe Dosen lieferten placebo‑korrigierte Gewichtsverluste (~12% bei 4.8 mg monatlich; höhere Dosis zeigte ~16% in Extension), Modell‑Analysen prognostizieren Parität zu Tirzepatide.
- Toleranz: Gute gastrointestinale Verträglichkeit in Phase IIb (96% keine/leichte GI‑Ereignisse in Extension; niedrige Abbrüche); Phase III‑Titration wird Down‑Titration erlauben.
- Kommerz: Monatliche Dosierung verlangt weniger API, geringere Logistik‑/Device‑Kosten, soll sowohl Neupatienten als auch Switcher ansprechen; Direkt‑zu‑Konsument‑ und Cash‑Kanalplanung vorhanden.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Phase‑III‑Plan: Insgesamt 10 Phase‑III‑Studien dieses Jahr, inkl. VESPER‑4/5 (wöchentlich) und VESPER‑6 (pivotal monatlich, Primärziel: Gewichtsprozent‑Änderung Woche 72), Switch‑Studien und Komorbiditätsstudien (z.B. Schlafapnoe, Knie‑Arthrose); erste Zulassungsziele: wöchentlich 2028, monatlich als Fast‑Follow.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Toleranzrisiko: Kernfrage war Verträglichkeit beim hohen Monatsdosis‑Sprung; Management setzt auf langsamere, kleinere Schritt‑Up‑Schemen und Down‑Titration in Phase III.
- Markteintrittsstrategie: Diskussion über wöchentlicher Launch gefolgt von monatlicher Fast‑Follow; Switch‑Studie global angelegt, nicht auf China beschränkt.
- Wettbewerb & Kombis: Fragen zu Head‑to‑Head‑Studien und Kombinationen (insbesondere Amylin‑Analogon 3945) — Pfizer setzt auf selektive Studiendesigns, Kombinationen sind in Entwicklung.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Berobenatide erhöht Pfizers Exposure im massiv wachsenden Adipositasmarkt dank möglicher gleicher Wirksamkeit wie Tirzepatide, besserer Skalierbarkeit und attraktiver Preis‑/Herstellungscharakteristik; Wert hängt nun maßgeblich vom Ausgang der umfassenden Phase‑III‑Programme und regulatorischer Prüfung ab.
Pfizer — Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Okay, everybody. It is my treat. I'm Rich Handler, CEO of Jefferies. I get the pleasure of interviewing my good friend, Albert Bourla, CEO of Pfizer.
Before we get going, the last time I interviewed Albert, and I was talking with him backstage, it was right in the heat of COVID when no one knew what was going to happen. And I had -- at the time, I think we had about 5,000 Jefferies employees on the Zoom. And quite honestly, I was -- I can't convey to you enough the calming, the sense of hope, the sense of purpose and the sense of strategy that you gave our firm at that point in time. So before we start, I want to give Albert and his entire company a big round of applause.
Give us just a little bit of you growing up and a little bit about your background so people know who you are. And it's a pretty interesting background.
I'm Greek. I used to say I'm Greek by birth, American by choice. I studied in Greece. I studied veterinary science. I did a PhD. All I wanted was to stay in academia to become a professor. Pfizer in Greece had an animal health group at the time, now it's Zoetis, that they were keen to hire me. They put an offer I couldn't resist. I said that I will go sabbatical a year or 2, and then I will go back to academia. But then once I joined Pfizer, I liked so much the energy of the private sector and entrepreneurship that was matching my personality, that I never looked back.
So that happened 33 years ago. I moved with my family in 5 different countries, in 10 different cities, and I worked with all the countries of the world.
So if you were to describe to the layman today, what is Pfizer in your mind? How do you see the company?
It's an iconic pharmaceutical company with a tradition that very few have. This year, celebrating 177 years of existence. New York company that bring -- comes with the competitiveness and drive that New York companies usually have. A company that has developed iconic medicines that changed the paradigm when it comes to treatments from the cardiovascular to -- from the Lipitors to the Viagras to -- I can go on and on. And a company that it is right now very much purpose driven. All we care is to develop breakthroughs that change patients' lives. And everything else will fall into place, including the stock price.
If you're talking about the competitive moats and the competitive advantages that you have right now on a global basis, what are they?
Pfizer has capabilities that basically none of the others have to that degree. We have probably the largest manufacturing network in the world and the capabilities of its network were able to be demonstrated in COVID. I remind people that during COVID, people were impressed that within 8, 9 months, we were able to develop a medicine. The biggest -- the most impressive accomplishment, which I know how challenging it was, was to make in the first year, 3 billion doses of a product that we had never manufactured before. The run rate of Pfizer was 200 million doses a year of all the vaccines that we were making.
Our manufacturing capabilities are enormous. We have -- we are a powerhouse in commercial. And this is not only in the U.S. where we constantly are ranked as the #1 primary care field force in the industry, constantly every year after year by physicians. But we have a global presence that no one else has. We have subsidiaries basically everywhere in the world with our own field forces and our own research teams in the world. And we have unparalleled R&D also capabilities.
So you focused the entire energy and passion of Pfizer during COVID successfully. But now your mission on the cancer side, you're taking all of the passion and energy to cancer. What does that mean? How does it look? And how -- the breadth of it, the geographics of it, the technology of it, how does that look?
You are right to use the word passion. It is really my passion in life to be able to advance significantly -- I don't want to say empty words and say, I want to find the cure before I go, but I want to advance significantly the fight against cancer, and I want to convert most of the cancers into chronic disease so that you can live with your cancer for years rather than receiving a death sentence.
Why cancer? One, it is a significant need for humanity. People -- cancer mobilize people like nothing else. Secondly, science, when it comes to finding solutions for cancer, it is very mature. We know way more about cancer than, for example, we know about Alzheimer's or we know about Parkinson's. It's well established.
Third, Pfizer had tremendous already capabilities in cancer, probably our most successful division with small molecules, which was our expertise, IBRANCE and ALK inhibitors, I can go on and on. And we invested pretty much everything that we made from COVID to buy Seagen, which has had and has the largest ADC platform, which is a very big large-molecules platform against cancer. So when I put together the need, the fact that the science is really breaking now and the fact that we are good at doing that, that was the obvious choice for us that this is where we go.
Any surprises on that acquisition, positive or negative?
Yes. So far, it's very positive. The acquisition had 4 products that were already in the market, but early introductions of them and had a significant pipeline, 13 different products.
And right now, we only have the results of the 4 in-market products that are doing extremely well. The Padcev, which is the, let's say, the crown jewel of the 4 and brings the vast majority of the sales has released data that are transformational. It's changing the lives of cancer -- bladder cancer patients. When I say change the life, more than double survival, not 10% or 20%, more than double.
Now we are studying -- we are initiating a new study that will be bladder sparing because usually, when you have this type of cancer, they remove your bladder and you have a terrible quality of life because of that. And of course, you will have metastasis that we need to treat with Padcev. So now we try to see if we can demonstrate that you don't need to remove your bladder. We will treat it while it is there. So the in-line products are doing very well.
Then there is the pipeline that is coming, significant amount of value about it. And the first of them, it is a very significant molecule. It's called SV. It is for lung cancer. It has 2 studies that are ongoing right now. Lung cancer is the biggest killer in terms of cancer deaths. There is nothing else that kills more people like that. In the U.S., 250,000, 260,000 new cases every year diagnosed with lung cancer. It's a very big problem. And as a result, it's the biggest market in oncology.
The SV, which is a very targeted technology, we are expecting this year results from a second-line lung cancer treatment as monotherapy. So alone SV against the current standard of care. No one was ever being able to beat the current standard of care in a monotherapy setting. We hope we will. It is riskier than the second one, which is combination therapy, and it is a bigger market. So the second one is first line, not second line. First line is much bigger, the numbers. And we studied in combination with immunomodulator. So we'll see how that goes. But if this is successful, probably that will become the biggest Seagen product and probably the biggest Pfizer product.
There's a lot going on in the biopharma world today, patent cliffs, AI, regulatory change. How do you view the climate right now for potential new acquisitions? Or if you were looking at the world right now, where would you hope to focus your attention? And where do you hope to see the biotech sector emerge?
There are several, let's say, things that are shaping right now, the industry. I've never seen a moment in that industry that so rapid change is imminent. The 3 things. One, I think, is behind us for the moment, but comes back and forth, it's the pricing, MFN, geopolitical tensions that was an existential threat for us in 2025, and I spent most of my time working this out.
You kind of embraced it, right? I mean, you went right at it.
We drove the industry. Some liked it, some didn't like it. They all did the same. We are 17 companies that -- they did 17 identical deals with the deal that we opened and we negotiated basically on behalf of everyone. And I truly believe it was a very good deal for the industry. And by the way, the investors believe the same because the first 2 days after the announcement of the Pfizer deal, the pharma went up 15%, 7% and 8% or 7.5% and 7.5%. So it was a very good thing. But right now, I think things are calm there because of that.
There are 2 things that are shaping the future. The first is AI. It's changing everything dramatically. It's going to change not only the things that people think, the drug discovery and how we are going to discover new medicines or develop them, that very much so, but it's changing our manufacturing, it's changing our commercial model, the role of a rep, the role of a marketer, the role of a medical liaison, the physicians already receiving most of their information through LLMs rather than through magazines and promotions from the reps. So the whole marketing process will change in addition to the whole manufacturing process, the whole research process.
And of course, there will be significant productivity gains because those 3 things that I said are -- primarily will drive sales, primarily will drive new products, primarily will drive less batches failed, but also cost will come in the form that you will have a much more efficient finance department, legal department, HR department, all the enabling functions. So that's one, AI. We can discuss...
While we're on that, so how is Pfizer directly being affected by all this? Like what are you doing internally in that regard?
Yes. We are all in. If you see the spectrum of the pharma CEOs in terms of how strong believers they are in AI, there are those that they believe that we will have some incremental changes, those that they believe that is changing everything and everybody is somewhere in between. I'm much more closer to I think everything will change. Our basic belief in strategy is that right now, AI cannot do everything. But right now, today, Tuesday -- or Wednesday...
I think it's Wednesday. Check AI, Claude?
Wednesday. AI can do much more than enterprises are using it for. So what is the bottleneck? Why they don't? It's not technological limitations. And it is not to make the right choice if it is Gemini or Claude, if you are going to build your own data center or if you are going to lease GPUs in Google or Amazon. The key, the secret, it is organizational ability to transform itself into an AI-native organization now that this unique powerful tool is available.
And that varies from company to company. Some companies will find it easier, nobody will find it easy, but some will find it easier to transform themselves than others. The reasons why that could inhibit something like that, it is inertia, it is fear of employees about their job, it is the unknown because it's a foreign language to many. It is the fact that so many people are proud for the way that they are doing things because they're extremely good in what they do, and they do it in the last 20 years, and they are the #1. And now you tell them you need to change completely how the finance department is structured and how the legal department is structured and how we look patent or litigations. But it's happening.
So our whole effort, it is on that second one. I don't worry that much if it is Claude or Gemini. I'm having the right people, making sure that we have the right computational power, the right infrastructure, that we are cleaning all our data in the way that we make them AI ready. But for me, it is more how the organization will endorse the idea that I'm changing. And not I'm changing by year 2030, I'm changing by year '27 because the speed with which things are moving is tremendous. So that's for me, the fundamental of the technology now.
I will take a caveat. There are some things that AI cannot do yet. Things that predominantly are in the research field, we have significant advancements, but we don't have it yet. We can't predict the right targets with high accuracy, biological targets. We cannot have the right molecules designed the way that we want. We still don't have toxicology in silico that it is well established, and I can go on and on and on. Things that could -- once we do, could save a tremendous amount of time out of the drug development and discovery.
For that, our strategy is to work with big players and niche companies to develop the tools. So we partner with them. I don't think any tech company alone will be able to develop a good AI model that predicts new compounds. And I don't think any pharma company alone by hiring engineers will be able to do it. We need the expertise of the two, and that's our strategy on that second domain. So the first one, more or less generic from my perspective, infrastructure, data and then training of the people, changing the organizational structure. The second one is still to come.
Okay. So back to the biopharma environment. AI is clearly one. Let's talk about regulatory for a second as one of the things that are changing -- actually, even recently, it's been changing quite a bit. So how do you see the changes? What -- is it going in the right direction? What do we have to make sure we protect and what needs to be improved?
If we speak about the U.S. on the front of significant institutions like the CDC, the FDA, et cetera, I think '25 was not a good year. We had a setback. But I think White House realized that. I think that they initiated corrective actions. We saw a lot of changes in CDC and in the FDA, and we continue seeing. CDC publicly said that it is a wonderful choice, the one that they did.
A decent high-ethical scientist that it -- is highly respected by the other scientists. That's what you need from a director of CDC. You don't need someone that every medical establishment is challenging it. We reached a level that CDC will make some vaccine recommendations and then the American pediatricians -- the American Association of Pediatricians, for the first time ever in the history of this country, will issue their own guidelines because they say, we don't trust the CDC guidelines. Terrible. But this is, I think, very rapidly moving to the right direction.
And what -- if you could have your choice on things that the regulatory regime would improve going forward, what would they be?
Before answering that question, because it's highly connected, it is, many are asking what about China. Because China, it is the area that it is, in addition to AI, the second driver that is shaping this industry. We have a phenomenon of a country that replicated the U.S. success model of building an ecosystem with NIH, universities, venture capital, biotech, big pharmas. And this is what the U.S. did in the last 2 decades and attracted the entire world research basically here. It was happening in Europe before that. And everything came here. And from Japan, most came here and most Europeans are doing here their research now.
So China is a very impressive example of a meteoric rise of a nation as a scientific superpower. They are not stealing patents because some people still are in this narrative. Actually, they are adamant in protecting patents. Why? Because they filed way more patents than U.S. companies last year. There is a true revolution that is happening there. And it is based on 2 things. One, it is they are investing in organizations that they operate with half the cost and 3, 4x the speed, and they are investing big amounts. When you have the...
Is that because they've embraced AI faster or because...
I don't think that the big changes that we see in China is because of AI. Actually, I'm concerned when they will start doing that, if -- how better they could potentially do it for us and going forward. There are multiple reasons, including some regulatory flexibility that they have there. But the reality is the people are hungry for success. And they are very driven, and they have set the goals. I've been to universities. And every researcher over there has in front of his computer screen, the words CNS, Cell, Nature, Science. These are the 3 top magazines of the world, the Cell, the Science and the Nature that they are obsessed: "We publish only there."
So we publish only there. That's China. They publish only on the highest quality magazines that an article to be accepted goes through the most severe scrutiny from peer groups. They dominate 70% of the publications in some areas are coming from Chinese authors right now. So when you have this type of a dynamic...
So is it a mistake for us to try to contain them versus make ourselves better?
That's the -- you're right, and that's the biggest mistake that U.S. bipartisanly is doing. They worry, rightly so. We want to maintain our superiority in the field. But the way that they are thinking about it and they are investing 80% of their resources and brain power and time, it is how to slow down China. They should invest 80% of our resources and brain power, how to become better than them. That's the only way.
It's like if you are in a race and you have win in your life, multiple races. So you are used to be the winner. And suddenly, for the first time, you feel someone approaching you from the back. What are the two things that you can do? It is to run faster, which is the sensible thing to do or to think that I'm going to push him to the side, which is what we try to do. Too late. They have scale with critical mass that we won't be able to slow them down. We should not even think about it. We should think how our biotech world will have 3x the speed and halve the cost to develop things.
So when you -- back to the regulatory side of it. So if that's the goal and to be the best, what help do you need from the regulators?
We need a lot of help from the regulators. And there are -- that's what I do every time I go to D.C. I speak about reforms that need to happen with Congress, with FDA, with HHS, et cetera, et cetera. But I need to say something. For us, to be able to compete with Chinese companies in the next -- in 5 years, let's say, when they will develop global players. So the way I see it, it is year 2030, my competition will not be Merck and Lilly, it will be Chinese companies. And I know that they are coming with half the cost, 3x the speed.
I don't think government will solve that problem for me. I don't think that we will be able to develop with the intervention or the protection of the government, half the cost, 3x the speed. We can develop it if we do the right AI development. We can develop if we do the right transformations. We can develop if we do the changes that we need to do so that we can become better. That's mainly on us.
However, the government, it keeps bringing the pricing issue of this industry is killing the industry. It's not helping because who is going to place his money in this industry when there is existential threat, maybe prices in the U.S. will be cut in half. Every time we have this debate, the funding for biotech comes to historical lows and the multiples of the pharmaceutical industry in extreme lows. That needs to stop. That's the help I want from them. The rest I'll do. I don't want their money. We have enough capital to do the things and to have the will and we have the expertise to transform ourselves.
Correct me if I'm wrong, I think you just did a recent deal in China with a 15-year maturity, a long term. What drove that? Was it worrying about the U.S. regulatory change or that you like the product so much, you wanted the duration...
You mean the Innovent deal with -- No. What drove that, it is that right now, the Chinese because of their very high productivity, they are developing significant medical innovation, new things, new stuff. And my passion is to find the cure of cancer -- but I am pretty aware, it's a very difficult thing because this -- [ cancer ] is very tough. You can't beat it, right? So we need to use the resources of all. And by finding a company that is very quick and good in some of the things and combine it with our capabilities that are very good in other things, we have better chances to develop the cancer medicine. So that's the deal.
Back to China for one last question. When -- you've been there twice in the last 6 months, is that right?
Say it again?
You've been in China twice.
Yes, yes. I've been...
Who do you meet with? Like small -- forget the big meetings, that pomp and circumstance. When you're in a small meeting, are you meeting with the CEOs of their -- of the pharmaceutical companies? Who are you actually having the conversations with? And what do you talk about?
I -- varies, changes. I always meet the political establishment. If I can, I will meet President Xi. It's not that easy to see him, but I have seen him several times, but I will see the premier always, I will see other members. You should -- also Shanghai, Beijing are the most influential right now. You see always the mayor and the party secretary. So you see, let's say, the political world.
Then I meet with a lot of investors there. There are a lot of either Chinese or Singaporean or other type of investors that they have a very good understanding of the China, and I'm closely connected with them. I'm meeting CEOs of companies, particularly if we have advanced deals, for example, the Innovent deal, I went and met with the CEO before we had an agreement, just not even a month ago, 3 weeks ago. And I think that helped because also when they look at you in the eyes, they feel very different level of trust to conclude the deal. And the same is for us. I wanted to see who is the person, right, before we commit years of co-developments.
So pretty much you get the feeling. Whenever I can, always I visit my people. It means a lot for them to see the CEO there and we have a lot of people in China. We are very big in China in terms of infrastructure and sales, and we are in e-commerce, we are in direct sales, you name it. We are the biggest name from international companies in China.
Okay. I think we're out of time, and we have a hard stop. But I want to ask you just one last question, you could answer as quickly or as long as you want. The purpose that you have in your life and the purpose for your company. How are you motivated? What is it about? And how do you feel about your job?
I feel very good about my job. And I think very few people have the luxury to work in an industry that doing good that -- good means that you are making good for humanity. There is a big misconception that existed for many years and was politically driven that what is the interest of the patients and the interest of the shareholders when it comes to pharma are fundamentally at odds. One is -- the reverse is true. There is no way that any shareholder will make a single dollar unless -- if the company creates dramatically significant value for the patients.
So morally, I'm so pleased to know that because what I need to do to serve my fiduciary responsibilities, it is to bring new medicines to patients, which is what I'm very proud of doing. And that's how we motivate our people. Very few people, as I said, work in an industry that they can claim that they can do so much good to humanity. And every time a neighbor, unfortunately, tells you that he got the diagnosis of cancer, this is the time that you remember why we need the Pfizers of the world.
Great. Albert, thank you so much. On behalf of everybody here, we greatly appreciate you.
Thank you very much.
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Pfizer — Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Pfizer — Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Bourla betont Pfizers Fokus auf Onkologie, massive AI‑Transformation und China‑Partnerschaften als Treiber für zukünftiges Wachstum.
Gespräch auf einer Konferenzbühne moderiert von Jefferies‑CEO Richard Handler; kein formaler Earnings‑Call.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Strategie: Konzentration auf Onkologie als Kernwachstumstreiber nach der Seagen‑Akquise, mit dem Ziel, viele Krebsarten zu chronifizieren statt zu heilen.
- Transformation: Breite AI‑Offensive zur Beschleunigung von Forschung, Produktion und kommerziellem Einsatz; organisatorischer Wandel bis circa 2027 gefordert.
- Globales Spiel: China als schnell wachsender wissenschaftlicher Wettbewerb und Kooperationsmarkt; Pfizers Ansatz: Partnerschaften und lokale Präsenz.
🔥 Strategische Highlights
- Seagen‑Akquise: Übernahme liefert vier in‑market Produkte (Padcev als Umsatztreiber) plus 13 Programme; Integration bisher positiv.
- Padcev‑Programm: Daten zeigen signifikante Überlebensverbesserungen bei Blasenkrebs; neues „bladder‑sparing“‑Studienprogramm geplant.
- AI‑Ansatz: Infrastruktur, Datenbereinigung und Umschulung der Organisation sind Priorität; Partnerschaften mit Tech‑ und Nischenfirmen für komplexe Forschungsaufgaben.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Klinik‑Timelines: Wichtige Ergebnisse für Seagen‑Molekül „SV“ (Lungenkrebs) noch dieses Jahr erwartet; erstes Readout in der Zweitlinie, weiteres in Kombination für Erstlinie.
- Guidance‑Update: Keine finanziellen Guidance‑Änderungen erwähnt; Statements sind strategisch klinisch/operativ, nicht zahlengenau.
- China‑Deals: Betonung auf langfristigen Co‑Development‑Partnerschaften zur Beschleunigung von Innovationen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Onkologie‑Execution: Nachfrage nach Risiken der Seagen‑Integration; Management signalisiert bisherig positive Ergebnisse, nennt aber keine detaillierten Umsatzprognosen.
- AI‑Umsetzung: Kritische Fragen zur Geschwindigkeit und konkreten Einsparungen; Bourla betont organisatorische Hürden mehr als technologische Limitationen.
- Regulatorik & Preise: Sorge um US‑Preisreformen; Bourla fordert politische Stabilität und weniger Preisdruck, weicht aber konkreten politischen Lösungen aus.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit für Investoren: Positives, strategisch klares Bild: Onkologie‑Pipeline (Seagen) und AI‑Transformation könnten Pfizers Wachstum langfristig stützen. Kurzfristig bleiben regulatorische Unsicherheiten und klinische Readouts (SV, Padcev‑Erweiterungen) die wichtigsten Kurs‑Treiber.
Pfizer — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, everyone, and welcome to Pfizer's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Francesca DeMartino, Chief Investor Relations Officer and Senior Vice President. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Good morning -- to Pfizer's earnings call. I'm Francesca DeMartino, Chief Investor Relations Officer. On behalf of the Pfizer team, thank you for joining us. This call is being made available via audio webcast at pfizer.com. Earlier this morning, we released our results for the first quarter 2026 via press release that is available on our website at pfizer.com. I'm joined today by Dr. Albert Bourla, our Chairman and CEO; and Dave Denton, our CFO. Albert and Dave have some prepared remarks, and we will then open the call for questions.
Members of our leadership team will be available for the Q&A session. Before we get started, I want to remind you that we will be making forward-looking statements and discussing certain GAAP financial measures. I encourage you to read the disclaimers in our slide presentation -- the press release we issued this morning and the disclosures in our SEC filings, which are all available on the IR site on pfizer.com.
Forward-looking statements on the call are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties speak only as of the call's original date, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of the statements.
With that, I will turn the call over to Albert.
Thank you, Francesca. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call. It's a wonderful day here in New York. We've had a strong start to the year. Our business continues to perform well, and we are making strategic progress. One of our great strengths is the ability to execute. And we are delivering on our financial commitments while we also invest to strengthen Pfizer for future growth and impact.
In the first quarter, we exceeded expectations for both total revenues and adjusted diluted earnings per share. We have made progress so far this year in delivering our 2026 critical R&D milestones including 3 positive Phase III readouts and encouraging mid stage readouts for both approved and investigational medicines.
We are keeping pace with our robust agenda of approximately 20 planned pivotal study starts this year. We also had 2 significant legal developments that improved our growth profile post 2028 and of course, our cash flow outlook. Our recent settlement agreements resolving infringement of patent related to VYNDAMAX have the potential to change the growth profile of the company significant post 2028. This gives us greater confidence that starting in 2029 and we will enter a 5-year period of high single digit revenue CAGR.
Additionally, we use the recent Belgium court ruling regarding COMIRNATY contracts with EU member countries as a positive for future EPS and cash flow. The improved visibility into our cash flow provides is a positive for our longer-term capital allocation priorities including, of course, our ability to preserve and support the dividend.
As we look to the rest of the year, we are clearly focused on our most impactful opportunities to create value for patients and our shareholders. We previously served our strategic priorities for 2026, and I will walk you through the progress we are making -- our launched and acquired products had a tremendous start to the year with 22% growth. 3 of our business development transactions represent about 8% of the invested capital in the recent years, and they are all progressing very well.
Oncology represents our most advanced and concentrated area of research and commercial focus and our Seagen acquisition is a central reason one. Since beginning the -- since bringing the company to Pfizer, we have transformed our oncology organization unifying our team expanding our commercial portfolio and advancing a leading ADC platform. The 20% year-over-year operational revenue growth in the quarter of our Seagen products shows but we have made good progress in deepening our presence within the oncology community.
We continue to strengthen physician engagement and drive greater recognition of the clinical value homes. We are also executing with focus to maximize the value of our Metsera acquisition. This underpins the strategy intended to position Pfizer as the leader in the next generation of obesity there.
We intend to advance 10 Phase III studies this year, and we are targeting a first approval in 2028 from a portfolio that includes ultra-long active peptides with the potential, if successful, developed and approved for competitive efficacy and tolerability with a differentiated monthly maintenance dosing schedule.
The success we have achieved with -- no -- since our Biohaven acquisition shows the power of our leading field force and commercial capabilities have worked. Nurtec contributed in the first quarter with 41% operational growth, driven by robust, robust demand and both follow acute and preventive migraine treatments.
We continue to see a meaningful growth opportunity in the oral CGRP class of medicines for patients with migraine. Of course, 2026 is a pivot target for R&D, and I'm pleased with our early progress this quarter. While we have a large active pipeline, we rely on a rigorous and disciplined approach to focus resources where we see the greatest conversion. We are targeting approximately 20 pivotal study starts, 8 key data readouts and 4 regulatory decisions this year.
Our critical R&D milestones reinforce how we are concentrating investment in key areas such as oncology, metabolic disease and vaccines, where we have existing commercial infrastructure, scientific expertise and significant opportunity for competitive differentiation. Roughly half are anticipated key data amounts and regulatory decision in 2026 are expected to come from on where we are advancing multiple programs across areas such as breast, thoracic, gastrointestinal and blood.
During the quarter, we presented notable EV-304 study findings for PADCEV. The results show that PADCEV -- -- reduces the risk of recurrence or death by nearly 50% in patients with cisplatin-eligible muscle invasive bladder cancer. Combined with the recent compelling data from the EV-303 trial, this highlights the potential for this regimen to become the new standard of care patients with muscle invasive bladder cancer regardless of cisplatin visibility.
Bladder cancer is diagnosed in more than 600,000 patients a year ago, including an estimated 85,000 in the U.S. MIBC represents approximately 30% of all these bladder cancer cases. The positive top line results we saved last week from the Phase III MagnetisMM-5 study of ELREXFIO represent a meaningful step towards our goal of reaching more patients earlier in the course of their disease. In this study, ELREXFIO significantly improved progression-free survival for double-class exposed patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma, who received at least 1 prior line treatment. This is a significant opportunity to address patiently. Multiple myeloma and aggressive and currently incurable blood cancer is the second most common type of blood cancer worldwide with 436,000 new cases each year in the United States, and over 187,000 new cases global.
During the quarter, we also served randomized Phase II data for tumors our potential first-in-class nDiKA4 inhibitor in patients with HER-2 negative breast cancer who received prior CDK4/6 inhibitor phase III. These data suggest that, has the potential to differentiate from the CDK4/6 inhibitor class with improved data center ability, reinforcing our confidence in the molecule.
Looking ahead, we remain focused on accelerating this investigational medicines development in first-line and early breast cancer, where it may provide even greater impact for patients. We view this as an important opportunity to deliver a next-generation backbone therapy building on Pfizer's long commitment to patients with breast cancer.
We have been working with regulators on the pathway for expanding coverage through our next-generation pneumococcal conjugate vaccine to extend our leadership in this competitive space. Yesterday, we initiated our Phase III program for our 25 valent pediatric vaccine candidate with increased balancing and next-generation serotype 3 technology.
I am also pleased to provide an update on our strategy in the adult market. We have decided to advance directly to our fifth generation adult vaccine candid. And today, I am proud to share for the first time, but it includes coverage for 35 times. We believe this gives us the strongest opportunity to maintain our current market leadership in the adult market over the long term, and we expect to enter clinical development this year.
In I&I, we announced a positive readout in March from a Phase II trial of --, our investigational trispecific antibody in atopic dermatitis. We intend to advance a broad clinical development program for this investigational medicine, which was discovered in-house at Pfizer and is currently being evaluated in atopic dermatitis and also in asthma and COPD.
We remain on track with our commitment and our continued focus on what matters most, maximizing the long-term value of our pipeline for patients. We are investing with strategic discipline and focus to build the foundational supporting our aim of high single-digit 5-year revenue CAGR. It's vital that our R&D has the resources to advance our robust pipeline, including both internally discovered programs and opportunities we have added through strategic moves such as our acquisition of Metsera and our in-licensing agreements with [indiscernible].
Our commercial teams are leaders in translating scientific progress into real world -- we are furthering investments to provide them with capabilities, technology and support, helping our medicines reach the right patients at the time so we can deliver sustained value. We also remain deeply committed to our shareholders. We intend to maintain and over time grow our dividend as we continue to deliver and build long-term value.
Embedding the use of artificial intelligence across our company is a key strategic priority, and we are driving continued progress in R&D, commercial, manufacturing and core enterprise funds. We are empowering our colleagues to accelerate innovation by pairing frontier AI tools tailored to find roll with comprehensive and continuously updated trend. One of the areas where we see the most substantial promise is the discovery development delivery of new medicines and vaccines.
Leveraging the power of AI to compress time lines and improve vision making is central to our innovation strategy. We are embedding AI into each functional line of R&D. Pfizer has a vast repository of small and large molecule translational and clinical data, and AI is creating the opportunity to along inside but to drive a significant impact on how we discover and develop medicines and vaccines. So with that now, I will turn it over to Dave to speak about the financial performance of the company.
Great. Thank you, Albert, and good morning. Let me begin by highlighting that our strong first quarter performance reflects the continued disciplined execution across our strategic priorities. and importantly, continued progress in repositioning the company for sustainable growth. We are making targeted investments today to drive revenue growth later in the decade and beyond.
Looking ahead, Pfizer is entering a new phase, our launched and acquired products, combined with the strengthening pipeline or positioning the company with the ability to deliver growth towards the end of the decade. While we remain focused on managing near-term LOE headwinds, we are actively building the foundation for durable long-term value creation.
And with that as context, I'll review our first quarter results discuss our capital allocation priorities and conclude with an update on our '26 guidance, which we are reaffirming today. In the first quarter of '26, revenues were $14.5 billion, exceeding our expectations and representing an operational increase of 2%. Excluding our -- -- products, the underlying business delivered approximately 7% operational revenue growth, reflecting solid demand across key brands and continued strong commercial execution.
On the bottom line, first quarter reported diluted earnings per share was $0.47 and adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.75, also exceeding our expectations. In addition to our strong revenue, this outperformance also reflects our ongoing commitment to managing our cost base and to drive productivity across the organization. Our results this quarter demonstrate the effectiveness of our refined commercial strategy, solid contributions across our product portfolio primarily driven by PADCEV, Eliquis, Nurtec, Labrena and Vendee family, each reflecting focused execution in our key therapeutic areas.
Our launch and acquired products delivered $3.1 billion in the first quarter, and revenues grew by approximately 22% operationally. These results demonstrate the early impact of our portfolio transition and our investment strategies. We continue to invest behind these product groups to support their growth which we expect will enable the to partially offset upcoming LOE headwinds over the next several years.
Adjusted gross margin for the first quarter was approximately 76%, primarily the result of product mix during the quarter and ongoing cost control measures. I do want to note accrued royalty expense was higher in this quarter and dampened gross margin compared to the first quarter of last year. With that said, trust management across our manufacturing foot remains a top priority.
As a reminder, over the past several years, our adjusted gross margins have generally remained in the mid- to upper 70s when it's COMIRNATY, which has a 50-50 profit split with our partner by OnTech -- we continue to expect pro $700 million in savings from our Phase I of our manufacturing optimization program this year with approximately $175 million realized in this quarter. Total adjusted operating expenses were $5.5 billion for the first quarter of $26 million, an increase of 4% operationally versus the first quarter of last year.
And now looking at the components adjusted SI&A expenses decreased 5% operationally, primarily reflecting lower marketing and promotional spending on various products from more targeted investments and ongoing productivity improvements as well as lower spending in corporate-enabling functions. Adjusted R&D expenses increased 11% operationally, primarily driven by an increase in spending in certain oncology and obesity product candidates.
First quarter 2026 adjusted operating margin was strong at 38% and above pre-pandemic levels, demonstrating effective cost management as well as revenue performance. We have already made meaningful progress on our productivity initiatives and remain on track to deliver the majority of the anticipated $7.2 billion in total net cost savings by the end '26.
And looking ahead, we will continue to identify opportunities to further enhance efficiencies while prioritizing rents that support future growth. Turning to the bottom line. Q1 reported diluted earnings per share, again, was $0.47, and our adjusted diluted earnings per share was 75%. The $0.75, which benefited from our strong non-COVID revenue and efficient operating structure.
Now with that, we turn to our capital allocation strategy. Our strategy is designed to enhance long-term shareholder value while preserving flexibility. It includes reinvesting in the business at appropriate returns, maintaining and over time, growing our dividend and preserving optionality for future value-enhancing actions, including share repurchases.
In Q1, we invested $2.5 billion in internal R&D, returned $2.4 billion to shareholders via the quarterly dividend and our completed business development activity is minimal. We closed on the sale of our stake in Vive in the second quarter, providing us with approximately $1.65 billion in net proceeds after taxes and customary closing costs. Our BD capacity women in the proceeds is approximately $7 billion. First quarter '26 operating cash flow was $2.6 billion and leverage ended the quarter at approximately 2.8x and as just a reminder, given the LOE headwinds over the next few years, we expect leverage to remain around the curves or even slightly higher through the transition period.
I will also mention that we made our final TCJA repatriation tax payment of approximately $2.6 billion in April. Based on our performance to date and continued execution, we are reaffirming our full year '26 today, we continue to expect total company revenues in the range of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion and adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $2.80 to $3 a share.
This outlook reflects our expectation of strong contributions across our product portfolio, adjusted gross margins in the mid-70s range, disciplined cost management and continued investments to support growth by the end of this decade.
As a reminder, sustained low disease levels of code would likely continue to weigh on utilization over the next several months. And additionally, our plan assumes that the majority of sales will occur towards the end of the year and consistent with the vaccination season. And as always, we continue to monitor currency fluctuation as the year progresses.
In closing, over the next several years, our focus remains on investing in key assets while managing upcoming LOE events, primarily from this year through 2028. As we look towards the end of the decade, growth is expected to be driven by our advancing AR pipeline and the continued progress of our launched and acquired products.
Following the VYNDAMAX settlement, we now have a clear line of sight to a high single-digit 5-year revenue CAGR post 2028. Furthermore, this event, combined with our legal win in the Belgium port regarding the EU COMIRNATY contract will enhance our cash flow post 2028. We continue to position Pfizer for durable long-term growth and shareholder value.
And with that, I'll now turn the call back over to Albert to begin the Q&A session.
Thanks, Dave. Nice quarter. Now operator please assemble the queue.
[Operator Instructions]
Our first question today comes from Vamil Divan with Guggenheim.
2. Question Answer
Great. I'll keep it to one. I think a lot of focus on the upcoming ADA meeting. I'm just curious if you can just kind of clarify exactly what we should expect to see the both vest per 3, any other data that we should expect from Pfizer perspective? I think in typical hosting an investor event in conjunction with the meeting. So curious if there's any other details you can share around ASCO?
So Chris, the question is for you how much of the data you're going to disclose given the ADA?
And thank you very much for the question. It's obviously a very important program. We're excited with the progress and since the close of Metsera, as you know, -- we had exceptional execution, not only the clinical development, but also on the commercial development side and as well as CMC and on the pharmaceutical scientists as well as the devices.
Detailed Phase III -- detailed data from Vest will be shared the top line data we presented last time, I think 4Q '25 earnings. Data from BSP1, the open-label extension will be shared as well as data from Vespa II which is weekly better Benoit, our new name for our GLP-1 with or without titration in participants with type 2 diabetes will be shared. We will not share yet at ADA date on Amlan mono. We expect 24 weeks monotherapy in 28 weeks combination with the Amling1 that will be shared in the second half of this year.
Next question?
Our next question comes from Dave Risinger with Leerink Partners.
Yes. So my questions are on your oncology reps this year that could move the needle for the company. Could you comment on your expectations for EE and MeVro pivotal readouts this year? And then separately, if you could just please provide an update on your restructuring of corporate strategy and business development operations at the company?
Thank you very much, Dave. Let me take the second one and the Chris will address the S and the member. We did some changes in our organizational structure that are aligned with our constant effort to simplify. We have reduced the members of my executive team by 4 over the next couple of years as the last 2 years.
So the business development moved under Chris Boshoff because most of the business development are right now related with R&D pipeline and sources. We see significant improvement in any friction that could exist and how smooth things could work by doing that.
We also moved the commercial development, which is all the commercial strategies that were sitting in that group into the global marketing of the organization. And that creates also a significant amount of synergies by having global and the new products, global market dealing with new products and with our own products. That went under me.
Alexander took over the responsibility to manage the portfolio management team. He is the new chair, and he is focusing on prioritizing the pipeline. And then the strategy group moved to my chief of staff, so in the offer the CEO, where I can have also a better supervision. So this is the change that happened into our organization. And we feel that they are consistent with everything we were planning, which is simplification of our business, Chris.
Thank you very much. So to start with SB, important program for us. Integrin B26 is a highly differentiated target overexpressing 90% of lung cancers and little express in normal tissue in the lung. And we were encouraged by the first-line data with -- I mean the Phase I data, which we shared, albeit a single-arm experience with a median overall survival of approximately 16.3 months.
The second line study, just a reminder is focused on non-squamous based on the signals we've seen Phase III study against docetaxel. The study statistically powered. Should it be positive for overall survival. It will also be clinically meaningful -- just a reminder, we also have an ongoing Phase III trial in the TPS high, TPS more than 50. Data will be shared at ASCO from the Phase I experience. This is pembro versus pembro plus A reminder that last year, we shared data for that combination of PD-L1 high and full of patients, but everyone responded in that population, so it was a 100% response rate in a small population.
And for mebrometostat, again, an important differentiated, highly specific differentiated EZH2. The first study that will read out is METRO 1, which is in patients post abiraterone, a significant unmet need of inzalidomide versus -- sorry, in inzalidomide EZH2 versus physician's choice of inzalidomide. And that should read out middle or second half of this year.
Operator, next question.
Our next question comes from Chris Schott with JPMorgan.
Maybe just 2 for me. First, maybe for Dave or the broader team. I know you typically don't raise guidance with 1Q, but it does seem like a very solid start to the year from a revenue perspective. Can you just talk generally about the business trends versus your expectations and just how you're thinking about the year progressing from here? And the second question for me was on BD capacity. You mentioned $7 billion. I guess just given the VYNDAMAX clarity, could the company look at larger transactions if the right deal were to present and sell? Or is the focus still much more on the internal pipeline and maybe smaller tuck-ins from here?
Yes. Chris, Dave here. Thank you. Yes, I think to your first question, company is off to a really solid start in Q1. If you look kind of up and down and across the board from a product perspective, -- we exceeded expectations on top line and bottom line and really strong cost control and cost management and very disciplined execution.
So yes, setting ourselves up really well for delivery for the balance of the year. As you well know, Chris, I have a philosophy of not really adjusting in Q1. I think as you well know, if you look at our COVID franchise, it will always be back half weighted because of the seasonality of the -- and so we are, if anything, have derisked delivery on that without raising guidance.
So absent that, we probably would be raising guidance, how is that again, strong performance. Secondly, as I said, we do have $7 billion in BD capacity. Obviously, this development from a legal perspective actually gives us more confidence in our cash flow delivery over the next several years. And we constantly look at BD and understand what is appropriate strategically to do from a BD perspective to support the needs of the company and to deliver long-term value.
Thank you, Dave. Next question.
Our next question comes from Kerry Holford with Berenberg.
Just on COMIRNATY, I wonder if you can just talk a little bit more about the vaccination rates you're expecting this year within the U.S. an international region. And then just coming back to the international region. Can you talk a little bit more about the European contracts reminder of those existing phase payments -- and in the context of that recent Belgian court decision, the 2 items that together, how should we think about the evolution of ex U.S. sales for that vaccine?
Okay. Let's start with international, and then we move to with Alexandre and then Amir will speak about the origination rates in the year.
Good question. just to put context, the decline that you see in Q1 on Comes nothing to do with vaccination. It's really the effect of last year we shipped our last contract elements of our contract with the U.K. So we don't have that contract in in 2026, and that's why you have the reduction but it hasn't really talked about the vaccination rate. Actually, we went through the vaccinations numbers in Europe in 2025 and mostly stable versus 2024. Of course, you have differences -- for instance, in brands, the vaccination rate is around 25% of the other adults in Spain, it's going to be around 35%.
But those rates are stable, and we see government will need to continue to invest and increase awareness of their order and at-risk population to get vaccination. In 2026, we will work with those government across the European unions to actually continue to execute our contract the same way we did in previous years.
Now with regard to the legal case and the court judgment on April 1, 2026. The court judgment is very clear, and we've started to work with the governments in Poland and Romania to actually execute the judgment, and we're discussing the best path forward to implement that jet.
Thank you Alexandre. So Amir, what about the U.S.
Vaccination rates in the U.S., obviously, it's very different for every segment. In COVID, with community, there was a narrowing of the label. So we did see a shrinking of the market a bit. In the case of RSV, we always see now going past our third season with a tougher to activate adult population but growing on the maternal space, and there's population dynamics with Prevnar both acute and adults.
So we see ups and downs in the vaccination rates as a result of those dynamics. But what I feel very good and very confident about is the way that we're executing in that market. So if you look at every single 1 of our vaccines, we have market-leading positions of at more than 60%, COMIRNATY, more than 60% Prevnar keys now at 84% and Prevnar adult even after many months of competition from Mark Holding share steady at 70%.
So I feel very good about the way that we're executing in a slightly turbulent market.
Thank you for the confidence Amir. I see it with you. Next question, please.
Our next question comes from Raffat with Evercore ISI.
And I appreciate some of the comments you made around maintaining the dividend. I just thought I would approach it from 2 different angles, if I may. First, I guess, what's the likelihood that Pfizer entertains a transformative M&A in near or medium term, which could end up impacting dividend as we've seen in history.
And then secondly, Albert, I guess, how are you personally, but also the Board thinking about your tenure at Pfizer and how it ties to dividend integrity beyond.
Look, we never say never. And we always look at every business -- possible business combination for M&A if you are asking me if right now, we think that we are going to go for something very big, a big measure.
No, we think that right now, in the next years, it is the time to execute on AI transformation of these organizations. And that requires not the disruption of mega merge. So I would say that open to everything, and we are looking at letting that can create shareholder value, but it is not right now very high in our list to find something like that.
The second question, how I see my tenure, I see it like continuing. And I said multiple times that I was very proud of what we were able to achieve with COVID. But then if you're spoiled with this feeling of satisfaction, you want to do it again. So I'm planning to do it again. And hopefully, with [indiscernible].
Next question.
Our next question comes from Asad Haider with Goldman Sachs.
Albert, just going back to last December's guidance call, you highlighted $17 billion of annual revenue impacted by LOEs by 2030 and now with the tafamidis statin settlement extending back to mid-2031, your comments that you are aiming to achieve high single-digit 5-year revenue growth starting in 2029. Just if you could double-click on that a little bit more, just looking at the decline in the current BD aperture that you just described, just level set us on any updated thoughts on bridging the gap around how we should be thinking about the levers to drive this growth against the stack LOEs -- and then just related, embedded in this high single-digit CAGR, what are the assumptions around your base business such as and the current oncology products?
Yes, it is easier to forecast the base business because it's constant. So that it is following the normal trends that we expect based on product by product. The alloys also are easy. -- to predict because they have the segment of currents. Right now, you're right, with this 2.5 years delay of the LOE of a product that is $6 billion plus. It is providing significant, as you can understand, opportunity for cash flows, EPS and changes the growth profile.
That's why we spoke now because with this uncertainty going about our projections about the growth profile, which we see is starting in '29. It's a 5-year high single-digit CAGR. How that is built is built with the current portfolio with the decline through the LOEs and with the additions of pipeline that they are heavily risk-adjusted. So it's not that we are having a binary events. So the pipeline are multiple, as you know.
We have a series of readouts right now that will affect the revenues in the '29. And so I think we're actually confident about that because when it is a large number of pipeline assets is adjusted, statistic usually work and those that we will fail will fail and both will succeed. But the risk adjustment takes into consideration about -- so very confident about the growth trajectory of the company starting in '29.
And I'm also very confident that we navigate the LOEs as you saw right now. very well started already this year, the alloys. I also want to emphasize that always the strategy for LOEs was new and acquired products. to do well because they were launched and acquired to offset the alloys. They are growing 22% this year. They are already on $3.1 billion in the quarter if you without saying that that's the guidance, but if you multiply it by 4, just to give you, we are talking about over $12 billion this year and growing. And the [ 17 ] billion of LOEs now after Vinda, they are more 14% to 15% rather than [ 17 ]. So I think it's -- look, let's do -- thank you.
Next question?
Our next question comes from Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.
I really want to touch on capital deployment, specifically when it comes to share repurchases. Dave, I know that, that's been a method that you wanted to employ now with clarity on Vyndamax and the CAGR post 2028, what other -- what else do you need to see to potentially start buying back shares, especially at these levels?
Yes, Evan, great question. We always look at our capital allocation strategy and balance between the 3 options that we have. At the moment, our focus is really on investing in our R&D platform and in business development to drive long-term value. With the development in these court cases, -- that does give us a bit more confidence in our cash flow over time.
So you'll see us the capital allocation, share repurchase lever will come back into greater consideration going forward. So great question. something we always work at, and we're always looking to do what's best for the company and shareholders long term.
Thank you, Dave very clear. Next question please.
Next question comes from Courtney Breen with Bernstein.
I just wanted to probe a little bit more on Sigvatata/vedotin and positioning in that frontline setting all comers relative to the symbiotic Lung01 study that you've already started with the PD-1 VEGF. I also note that you've got kind of a Phase I/II running combining these 2 assets -- and can you help us contextualize that new Phase III or comers that you intend to start this year for SV first line? And how that may be positioned relative to symbiotic?
All right, Chris.
Thank you very much for the question. Lung cancer is obviously a very significant unmet need and having a number of shots on goal now with a very differentiated portfolio. gives us confidence that we can continue to play important role in all cancer beyond just in the targeted therapies like lorlatinib. For SP, we are very encouraged by the data we've seen for the combination of pembrolizumab plus ASP in the PD-1 -- PD-L1 high population, where we previously showed in a small number of small code of patients that they all responded in the PD-L1 high to that combination.
So the Phase III study that's ongoing pembrolizumab versus pembrolizumab for SP. That study is recruiting well in the first-line setting. -- and we're confident for the readout for that study. And ongoing also is the second line study, which is against dose ease which was encouraged by the previous data we've seen, albeit in a single-arm experience with a medium overall survival of 16.3 months. So that study should read out mid-tier's dosing tax versus ASV second-line doled for, obviously, for overall survival. And it is positive as I said earlier, it will be clinically meaningful.
And then ongoing studies being planned also for the broader population in combination with chemo plus pembrolizumab, and we will share some of the data at later this year for the early data for that combination. In terms of 404, at ASCO, we will share the POCI data of 4404-monotheraphy in first-line PD-L1 expressing non-small cell lung cancer -- as you know, we recently shared data at AACR, where we repeated the preclinical and early data generated by 3SBio in China.
So we're really confident that this is a differentiated molecule. -- the binding against VEFF is we've shown at AACR is better -- is higher affinity ability than what's seen with a all that end with competitor PG/PD-1 molecules. So confident in the molecule, we'll share more data later this year with a broad program starting including in combination with chemo and just a reminder, ASCO will also share data and with 4401-plus chemo in first-line advanced recurrent endometrial cancer, another program that we plan to start a Phase III program.
Thank you, Chris. The next question. Last question.
Our final question comes from Louise Chen with Scotiabank.
I want to ask you which key products do you think will drive the reacceleration of your growth in 2029 and beyond? And then regarding the international obesity opportunity, just curious what you learned from the launch of your GLP-1?
Alexandre let start with you again at this time because the obesity international has, of course, the numbers have surprised how big the international market is. And then also to speak about key products that will drive your growth in '29 and then Amir U.S. key products that will drive growth in '29.
So a good question on the euglutide launch in China. Of course, it's very, very early days. We really launched the product Monday last week. So I mean it's only a week, so I can't really talk to you about the penetration of euglutide in China. But -- what is really interesting is actually the incidence of chronic weight in China is quite high, 15% of the Chinese population. And considering the size of the China population that makes it 1 of the larger market for chronic weight management.
And that's the reason why we decided on March and February of the to actually do this collaboration with win Bioscience for the commercialization of economy in China, -- and since then, we got the approval and commercialize these assets -- has a very interesting profile. And actually, he's generating in a placebo-controlled study, a 1.1 percent weight loss at 48 weeks, which is in part was the best Q1 with this bias mechanism of action of GLP-1. We think that we have -- we are bringing to market a very effective asset with a good tolerability profile.
And of course, we're going to leverage our very strong primary care capabilities in China that puts Pfizer China as 1 of the leading in primary care. So it's a combination of a very attractive clinical profile, plus our knowledge in this area.
Well, we believe makes a leader in this category. And we are not coming very late into the market because remember, really really introduce their asset in the beginning of last year. So it's not like we're coming many years after the introduction of those assets. So as I said, I'm very optimistic, both due to the profile of this asset and the capability that we have developed in China.
Now when it comes into the growth engine of the international. There are -- I just want to step back 1 second. If you look at the water and the fact that our non-Covprimary care group double-digit growth. We delivered $2 billion this quarter. Remember, we closed last year with double-digit growth on primary care. Now if you look at the specialty tier about $1.5 billion this quarter, we're delivering a double-digit growth again. That was on the back of a double digits last year.
And there are assets in those different areas that will continue to power our growth. If I come back to primary care, our vaccines are growing very strongly. And the reason why we are growing very strongly on vaccine is because both and on RSV, we have a large population. If you look at -- as you know, in -- this is a very -- it's a very large population and 2/3 of our vaccine business come from the atria. And of course, we have a large pediatric population to continue to grow.
So both in maternal immunization and optomocalco. So the vaccines have a potential to grow in pediatric and in adults. Of course, a big growth in the -- at the end of the decade will come from the Mercer asset in chronic weight management because there are 2 elements of that. One, it's an underserved category with a large epidemic across the world, right? In some of the emerging markets, we have a very high prevalence in Saudi, in Brazil and Mexico of obesity and our presence in those markets will -- with a strong primary care will allow us to actually anatispotential.
But also -- it is a cash market, which also is a big advantage in Europe and other developed markets where right after the approval, we can introduce those products which is not the case today in many of our categories because it takes a lot of time for reimbursement negotiation with the payer. So you see we have an in-line assets that will continue to power the growth, and we are bringing assets like the matter that will go straight to market. And of course, the oncology asset will come, but it will take longer for reimbursement negotiation.
Thank you, Alexandre. Amir for U.S.
Luis answer the question. There's many things that give us confidence about driving growth in the U.S. in '29. If you take the first category, we have products that are on the market today that have a lot of upside to them. You think about Padcev, all of our recent growth has been primarily driven by LAC -- we're at the high 50% penetration there. And we've got lots of upside in MIDC, 303 and 304. So there's a lot of headroom for growth there.
Secondly, you look at products like Nurtec, we've got a lot of tailwind behind us now, but only 60% of people who write a triptan have yet to write an oral CGRP -- so there's a lot of headroom for growth, and we're executing really well against that.
Second, you look at some of our existing large franchises. We have a lot of confidence in what's going to happen with Vinda now with years additional exclusivity gives us the opportunity to invest and to continue to grow diagnosis -- and we are doing a great job defending our existing patient base as well as ensuring that it is the choice, the top choice for new patient starts.
And so we think we have a lot of momentum on franchises like that as well. And then just to complement what Alexandre was saying, if I think about new areas of growth, we talked a lot about the oncology assets already, but obviously, we're very excited about what we have to bring to the market in obesity the assets speak for themselves, but what I'm particularly excited about is the fact that we have unique capabilities as a company to win in this area, both in terms of our ability to activate consumers and patients in very different ways as well as our legacy in this space and the fact that almost 60% of physicians who are going to write these products, we already touch today through a combination of our field forces. So those combinations are just some examples of what gives us top 10 to grow in '29.
Thank you, Amir. And thank you, everyone, for your attention. Our strong performance in the quarter reflects the impact of our continued focus and disciplined execution. We are engaging with precision to maximize the value of our commercial portfolio, and we are seeing the results in our financial performance.
In R&D, we are making meaningful progress with a robust slate of critical milestones ahead in 2026 that we believe will further demonstrate the strength and breadth of our pipeline. I want to thank my Pfizer team. I believe we have the best team Pfizer ever had. They are dedicated to ours, continue to deliver and embrace our commitment to creating long-term value for patients and for our shareholders.
Thank you for joining the call today, and thank you for your interest in Pfizer. We look forward to sharing further updates as we execute our priorities throughout the year.
Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.
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Pfizer — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Pfizer — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Solider Q1 2026: Umsatz- und EPS‑Outperformance; Jahresguidance bestätigt; Patent- und Gerichtsentscheidungen verbessern mittelfristige Wachstums- und Cash‑Perspektive.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: $14,5 Mrd. (operativ +2% YoY), zugrundeliegendes Geschäft ohne spezielle Produkte ~+7%.
- EPS: Reported $0,47; Adjusted diluted EPS $0,75 — besser als Erwartungen.
- Launch/Acquisitions: $3,1 Mrd.; operatives Wachstum +22%.
- Margen: Adjusted gross margin ~76%; Adjusted operating margin 38%.
- Guidance: FY‑Umsatz $59,5–62,5 Mrd.; adjusted EPS $2,80–3,00.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Fokus R&D: ~20 geplante pivotal Starts 2026, 8 wichtige Readouts, 4 Zulassungsentscheidungen; Schwerpunkte: Onkologie, Stoffwechsel/Adipositas, Impfstoffe.
- Kommerzielle Priorität: Seagen-Integration und Metsera‑Launch zur Stärkung der Oncology- und Adipositas‑Erträge; Ausbau Field Force und Vermarktungsfähigkeiten.
- Kapital & Strategie: Dividendenerhalt und BD‑Kapazität ~$7 Mrd.; gezielte Investitionen vor Rückkehr größerer Aktienrückkäufe.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Prognose: Jahresguidance bestätigt; Adjusted gross margin mittlere 70er Prozent; Sales Back‑end‑gewichtet wegen Saisonalität.
- Mittelfristig: VYNDAMAX‑Settlement und belgisches COMIRNATY‑Urteil verbessern Cash‑Flow und geben Sicht auf High‑single‑digit 5‑Jahres‑CAGR ab 2029.
- Risiken: Nahfristige Loss‑of‑Exclusivity (LOE)‑Headwinds bis 2028; Währungs- und Nachfrageschwankungen bei Impfstoffen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Data‑Timing: Erwartungen an ADA/ASCO‑Daten (Metsera/Vest, Vespa II, weitere Phase‑III‑Details) wurden geklärt; einige Readouts H2‑2026.
- Onkologie‑Readouts: Nachfrage zu wichtigen Phase‑III‑Studien (u.a. SIGV/Seagen‑Programme, EZH2‑Mebrometostat) und deren kommerzieller Bedeutung.
- Kapitalallokation: Diskussionen zu möglicher größerer M&A vs. Fokus auf interne Pipeline; Rückkehr zu Buybacks hängt von weiterer Cash‑Visibility ab.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Q1 liefert solide operative Performance und bestätigt Guidance; juristische Klärungen verbessern mittelfristige Wachstums‑ und Cash‑Perspektive. Kurzfristig bleiben LOE‑Risiken und datengetriebene Pipeline‑Ergebnisse ausschlaggebend — für Aktionäre bedeutet das stabilen Ertrag mit wachstumsabhängigen Upside‑Catalysts ab 2029.
Pfizer — TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
1. Question Answer
Well, good morning once again, and welcome to TD Cowen's 46th Annual Healthcare Conference. We're delighted to have you here.
We're especially delighted to welcome Pfizer back to the conference this year and representing the company, Albert Bourla, who is Chairman and CEO. So Albert, thank you so much for making the journey.
Great pleasure.
Lots to talk about, so much going on internally to Pfizer, but also in the external environment. So I'd like to start out with the external environment. Albert, you were front and center through the whole process of negotiating deals with President Trump. You were the first person to be in the White House to sign the deal. What surprised you most about that process and the outcome for Pfizer relative to the deal?
What surprised me the most, it is the competence of the people on the other side of the table, which I didn't expect. Those are people from Medicare, basically, and under all this department, and they were like talking to a business partner. They knew their stuff. They were very pragmatic. They could find solutions. And usually you expect from government negotiators to be the opposite of that. So I think that was very, very surprising.
Eventually, I think we did absolutely the right thing, and that was rewarded by the market and that, of course, 16 other companies followed and now there are 17 companies. I think we put into rest two major uncertainties that existed at that time. One was the tariffs, but based on the structure of how pharmaceutical has been organized in the last 30 years, tariffs in imports could be catastrophic and patented products, products with high margins.
And the second was, of course, the fear for a drastic adjustment in the U.S. pricing across the board. I think those two went away. Now is the opportunity that remains. And the opportunity it is to see in the other originations to bring their prices to more reasonable levels.
I'm not extremely optimistic that we will see that, but the first agreement that the U.S. government has achieved with U.K., it's a significant advancement towards that. With U.K. committing to go from 0.28% of GDP in innovative medicines to 0.6 within a decade. And 10% of that will be next year. So it's quite -- quite positive.
Actually, I was too quick to go to the macro. I think you wanted to make a few observations about Pfizer's business today to kind of set the stage for the rest of the discussion. So let me turn that.
Thank you. I mean I was very pleased with year 2025. And if you want to take something out of it, what would be the conclusion? It is that Pfizer has proven that is a company that knows how to execute. We were able, after the crisis that the company fell after the COVID. Drastic adjustments from $60 billion to $6 billion. We were able to re-take out a lot of cost to reorganize our operations, to revitalize our R&D without affecting the top line. And to that, I think, was a significant achievement.
Going forward, we announced four major priorities, and I will be very brief on them. The first one for this year, it is to maximize the value of the recently acquired assets. We acquired several things, but there are three that they account for 80% of the investment, which was an $80 billion investment that we have done in new business. This is Zedesen this is Metsera, and this is Biohaven, so Nurtec. Those three account for 80%. And they have both pipeline products like Metsera. They have mainly in-line products like Nurtec, and they have a combination of both, which is the season with Padcev and other products that are meteoric growing and with SV, PD-L1, et cetera, assets that are in the -- so that's number one.
The second is, you've noticed our fourth quarter call in end of January that it was focused 0 on EPS. It was all our revenues. It was all about the pipeline. What's the reason for that? Because this year is a pivotal year of R&D milestones. And the second priority is to deliver on all of them. We spoke about regulatory approvals. Already, we got two of the four that we are expecting. We spoke about to initiate 20 Phase III studies, 10 of them in obesity. We spoke about 8 significant readouts that will come there. So all of that are important things that we want to deliver on.
The third is to invest so that we can have industry-leading growth post our LOE period. So as we move towards the end of the decade. And that and trails, maintaining the dividend. We are very clear about it. But also investing in the business in addition to that with R&D building commercial infrastructure so that can maximize assets, et cetera, et cetera. So I think those are the top 3 priorities that I would mention here. And I'm very optimistic that the year will be a very good year for Pfizer.
I'd like to drill specifically into point number two, that is the pipeline. So as you said, Pfizer is looking to achieve industry-leading growth. What are the must-win Phase II product launches and/or readouts to deliver on that?
Yes. I will start with oncology because that's probably the crown jewel right now of the industry. And I would say that important in the pipeline are SV, which is a seed compound that it is an ADC, that is under two Phase III studies right now. The first one is monotherapy and we'll read out this year. In second line. And the second one is combination therapy in first line together with KEYTRUDA that will read out next year. It's very important, but the two will fail, particularly in the phase that any other ADC failed in monotherapy. So if we are successful on that, I think it's a very big and good news.
We also have the CDK4 and that in general, the breast cancer franchise, but they are progressing very rapidly, and they are pivotal. Right now, they are doing the studies. I want also to emphasize that the Metsera portfolio, it is something that could help us significantly into that, given that we are aiming to launch them in year 28. So that, given the successes and the how fast market adoption of new products in that market surprised all of us. The ramp-up of sales is different than anything else we have seen. So very quickly, you are achieving very big sales. I think I'm also very optimistic on that. On vaccines, there are two vaccines that are very important. Actually, three because we have the Lyme disease, but it is expected to read out this year.
If successful, we'll be the first and only Lyme disease, and that's a significant thing. We are already running a study for C. difficile. And that's very important, let's say, unmet medical need, again, we'll be the first and only product for this disease. And we are marching to maintain our leadership in the pneumococcal because we are bringing the 25 valent into pivotal studies right now. But I will stop by saying that, it's not only the pipeline, right? Because we have, through these acquisitions, in line products that last year, in '25, they made $10 billion at a growth of 14%.
This double-digit growth of this group of newly launched products, either through acquisitions or through internal pipeline will continue growing double digit this year. So by the year, but we will reach the LOEs year '28, which is a onetime event and then will go away. I think we'll find it with a sizable part of business, but it is growing very high.
Okay. By the way, I should have mentioned at the outset, should you have a question and you're in the audience. Just raise your hand, and we'll call on you and get your question answered.
So lots to dig into on specific products, Albert. So let's start with the pneumococcal vaccine. What's Pfizer's level of confidence that you will be the dominant player in 2030 as you are today?
I think we will. Why I'm based that not only because I believe in our science and our products, but I know time lines right now, the biggest part of this. It is the pediatric. It is 4 doses for every newborn compared to 1 dose for everyone who goes to 65 years old. So that's a very, very big difference in the market with the same price, right? And on that one, the time lines are telling me that from 20 we will go to 25 will be the first one, and with a significantly improved product compared to the trend. I don't think anyone in pediatric is any close to us on that.
The adult also, I'm very optimistic. This is where competition is but we saw when competition came in the 13, we were able to hold very [ live ] our market share. And then immediately with the 20, we gained basically all our markets. Now we have dominant market share in this market. So I'm very confident.
Maybe we can move to obesity. And at least for me, it's so easy to be schizophrenic on this market because on the one hand, you see this big opportunity. But on the other hand, you see pricing under pressure, compounding lots of things to worry about limited growth in the market today. So why is Pfizer confident that by 2030, this is going to be a great market for Pfizer to participate.
Because the market in general will be very big, and we have been quite -- we are believers that this market is going to be very big, not now, but we saw it from the old days because we tried with the obesity assets, which was the first oral PD-L1 -- excuse me, GLP-1s that could come to the market. Unfortunately, science is not always what you hope and we -- both of them fail. The reason why we thought that Pfizer needs to be in that market, it plays exactly the characteristics of what makes a successful a company in this market. It is the primary care, the consumer brand equity, how you can approach the consumer direct sales.
These are things, but we have been extremely good. And the only analogy that I can bring up is the Viagra loans. There is also Botox, which is similar to that, although Botox is administered basically by not home, but by a physician. But the Viagra was identical. And there, when we launched Viagra we had all the issues that we see now with novel Lilly, the compounding, the counterfeits. We had significant out-of-pocket cash market that people were willing to pay for the medicine, although it was very poorly or not at all, REMBERT. So we had that. So what we didn't have was a portfolio because ours failed, the most advanced and the others were very new.
And this is what Metsera did to us. I think the assets are highly differentiated. We have right now the results that we presented in for the monthly. For me, it was a huge relief. Why I say it was a huge relief? Because until that day, we knew with a very high level of certainty, but we have a weekly product. When we did the acquisition, we knew that.
We also knew that the molecule have pharmacokinetics that is very likely to become a monthly product. I think what the study demonstrated is that we have a monthly product. Now let's discuss the profile, but the most important is we have a monthly product. That will be the only -- not the only because there is Amgen, but we'll be able to compete with the incumbents that they don't have a monthly product.
I think the studies was designed -- was designed by Metsera to make sure that they maximize very quickly the knowledge so that they can advance to Phase III, probably we would have done it the same way. But there were some characteristics in the way that we organize the studies. The study didn't have a lot of step-up dosing.
It was in the MAX dose, they reached after 1 or 2 step up doses to reach the maximum. And I remind you that Lilly's product to reach the maximum usually it is 5. So it is the sixth time that you come. So that's -- you push it a little bit. The second is that we didn't allow step down in dosing. So if someone had the vomiting, he had either to discontinue or to keep in the same dose and maybe vomit again. But of course, it's something that both of them, we won't do in the Phase III. But it was important to do in the Phase II because that gave us the valuable insights. And what are these insights? Monthly product, that probably will be better than any other mono agonist and will be comparable with the current dual agonist in efficacy. And we'll have a profile on the safety, but we hope it will be even better, if not the same, and it will be monthly. So that's a significant, let's say, competitive challenge to the incumbents.
Okay. So that nicely explains the discontinuations you've seen. But the root around them and how you get to a better place in Phase III?
Yes. And also I want to emphasize that in that study, they were test 2 doses the low dose and the middle dose. In the Phase III study, we are testing also a higher dose, which is basically double than the middle dose, right? So it is 9.6, will be. And I think that we have a very accurate modeling. It's a modeling, but it's proprietary. We developed when we were doing our [ danofloxacin ] and our oral it has 60,000 patients database across the industry and a lot of best sophisticated mathematics that predicts based on several criteria, what the efficacy would be.
And we predicted with a model, the actual results of this study, almost to the point, 9.9 compared to 10, for example, right? Or 12.2 compared to 12.3. That was the -- and those model projects that the 9.6 will be safe and more efficacy. So a lot of excitement about what can come out of these studies.
Okay. This is not dissimilar from the first question I asked, but, where does Pfizer see it fitting in the obesity market? Where will you play? Or is it irrelevant because of the size of the market will allow you to be successful. Do you think you can get differentiation in one shape or form?
Yes. We have differentiation because in the first product is monthly. Actually, the second generation that is coming, which is the Amylin and GLP-1, it's also a monthly product. And also in our pipeline, what we are testing now in Phase I, it is every 3 months product, which is quite promising as well. So there will be differentiation. I think the amylin plus GLP-1 could surprise us in efficacy also. So we wait to see, of course, the results. So there will be differentiation.
But when we analyzed what happened in the marketplace. And right now, I think the big differences that we see are not only difference is because of product profiles, it is big time, big differences in terms of go-to-market strategies that were different between the companies. And for us, it's extremely important also that we will be in the forefront of testing the most aggressive forms of being able to maximize this portfolio. There will be a lot of segments in this portfolio. there are people that they want really to lose a lot of weight. They go for high efficacy. There are people that really want to have some cash weight loss, so they go for tolerability.
There are people that they don't want the monthly injection -- excuse me, they don't want the weekend injection. They want convenience. And the convenience could come either with oral solutions after they achieve their weight loss to go to oral solution, but I don't think will be the segment very much as a switch because once you are used to once a week, you don't want once a day, even if it is appeal. But you would like once a month. So there are many other things that I can explain there is also the way that people are going through the doctor or people are going direct and through e-commerce and all of that.
Actually, I want to emphasize something that maybe -- I'm sure you have seen, but maybe some of the audience have seen that we licensed GLP-1 in China. I'm not talking about the molecule, but it is a GLP-1 agonist in Phase I that we will go to Phase II. I'm talking a product already approved for type 2 diabetes in China. And pretty soon, we expect to be approved for weight chronic weight management. The reason why we did it, first of all, China is booming now this market. So we want it to be part of it.
But more importantly, we want to get significant insights in commercializing in different segments with an opportunity that we have right now in China. I think that will give us significant insights into our already very good capabilities in the space to be able to compete also commercially in a very aggressive way.
Questions from the audience? I'll answer my own question. Oh, I'm sorry.
There are some people who see the takeoff in the current oral therapies and those curves and think, wow, in a couple years the world is just [indiscernible] market and congestions [indiscernible]. That's one question.
And then second question is, how is the results of the recent [indiscernible] affect [indiscernible] the capabilities of your [indiscernible]?
Yes. Excellent questions, both. I think the orals probably are absolutely in the right direction, and I commend them for doing that.
When investors think about policy and they always think about it in a bad way. But are there anything -- can anything come out of all the changes that we're seeing that could actually benefit the industry and/or Pfizer? And maybe the one we just talked about was one example, one trial, but are there other?
I think yes. First of all, it was really understandable why investors focused on the negatives because the negative could be existential. It could not be just a small problem. But I think we were able to march through them. And I think now we have much more clear situation. But there are some positives.
And let me start with one positive, but I don't think people noticed that much. The PBM reform, there was a significant decisions on the way that PBMs operate all within 1, 2 weeks this. Beginning of this year, and those will have, I think, very positive results. One was the law that President Trump signed that the past congress, both Senate and House on a bipartisan way, that speaks about transparency, and they need to disconnect their fees with the list price, basically taking away most of the incentives. But PBMs have to have a very high out-of-pocket and which is between the gap of the list and net price.
There was a decision of the Department of Labor that instructs that they should provide transparency to all because that was for Medicare, then the Department of Labor did it basically for commercial insurance by saying that they need to give to all sponsor plans of employers, full detail where the rebate went, again, big incentive. And the third one, of course, was the FTC settlement of one of them that basically calls very clearly that the price that the patients should pay, it is the net price and not the list price. That's the comment. So those by itself, I think, things that the industry is trying in the last 10 years to change.
And by the way, I'm very happy and proud that just before I switch my term in pharma, we were able to achieve also that, that took a tremendous amount of time of me and my peers in trying to explain to regulators and the administration, the importance of that. We spoke about prices in international that we could see a more positive environment going forward, particularly for the new products that I think is something that I truly believe we have a good sense of it.
I'm a very big supporter of these trade negotiations that the U.S. trade representative, Ambassador Grier is doing. I think he is the only U.S. trade representative that I worked with, but really cares about the innovation, maintaining the innovation of the U.S. in the biosciences. He's really impressive how you navigate the challenges but also more impressive, how committed he is to make this happen. So I hope we'll see good things coming out of it.
So we are out of time, but I want to ask one last question. And that is, when you look at the next decade, what do you think the biggest change or surprise to investors will be at Pfizer?
Change or surprise? I think there are two things that are shaping the industry big time right now. And one, it is AI that is changing the landscape in ways that we have not seen before and has the potential to completely transform not only the go-to-market, but to transform the way you do research, manufacturing, enabling functions, everything.
The second is the meteoric ascent of a new scientific powers, super power, which is China. This is changing completely the calculus. It changes the calculus because these are people that they have ambitions. They are very good. They want to come and become global players and to have seen their playbook in vehicles, electronic or in batteries, and we know how that goes. They start and then they go to conquer the market.
And I think for us, represents a talent and the opportunity to be able to bring our productivity to their level. because we characterize them, it is half the cost 3x the speed. That's what it is all about and significant investments. So what we need to do is to keep investing in research and innovation, big time. And then make our productivity, double the cost and triple the speed, and AI will be the biggest lever to do it.
I think either of those topics could have consumed a full hour, but we do need to stop time is up. So thank you so much, Albert.
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Pfizer — TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
Pfizer — TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Pfizer betont erfolgreiche Reorganisation nach COVID‑Einbruch und setzt auf vier Prioritäten: Wertmaximierung akquirierter Assets, erfolgreiche R&D‑Jahrzeile (viele Meilensteine), Investitionen für Wachstum nach Verlust des Patentschutzes (loss of exclusivity, LOE) und Dividendenerhalt.
- Fokus: Pipelinegetriebene Erholung mit starken in‑line Umsätzen aus Akquisitionen (z. B. Nurtec/Biohaven, Metsera) und großem Onkologie‑ sowie Adipositas‑Ambitionsplan.
- Ton: Management signalisiert Zuversicht, sieht aber Wettbewerb und regulatorische/Preisrisiken; AI und China als langfristige Treiber.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Akquisitionen: Rund 80 Mrd. USD Investment, drei Kernkaufobjekte machen ~80% aus (im Transcript: Zedesen, Metsera, Biohaven/Nurtec) — Mix aus Pipeline‑Assets und wachstumsstarken in‑line Produkten.
- Pipeline: Ziel: 20 neue Phase‑III‑Studien (davon ~10 in Adipositas), acht bedeutende Readouts; Onkologie‑ADC (SV) monotherapeutischer Readout dieses Jahr, Kombinationsreadout mit Checkpoint Inhibitor nächstes Jahr.
- Vaccine & Triage: Pneumokokken‑25‑valent in pivotalen Studien, Lyme‑Zulassungsreadout erwartet, C.difficile‑Programm läuft; neu erworbene Produkte wachstumsstark.
🔎 Neue Informationen
- Adipositas: Metsera‑Phase‑II liefert Hinweis auf eine praktikable monatliche Dosierung (wichtiges Differenzierungsmerkmal gegenüber wöchentlichen/Oral‑Konkurrenten).
- Zulassungsstand: Management nennt bereits zwei von vier erwarteten Zulassungen erreicht; betont, dass 2026/2027 ein R&D‑pivotaler Zeitraum wird.
- Policy: Hinweise auf positive Effekte aus PBM‑Reformen und internationalen Handelsabweichungen als möglichen Preisunterstützer für Neuprodukte.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Pricing/Risiko: Fragen drehten sich um US‑Preisgestaltung, Handelsverträge und ob jüngste Abkommen Preisdruck deutlich abbauen — Management sieht Verbesserungen, bleibt aber vorsichtig.
- Obesitas‑Wettbewerb: Analysten hinterfragten, ob monatliche Formulierung und Kommerzialisierung (inkl. China‑Lizenz für lokale Learnings) Differenzierung sichern können; Bourla betont Primärversorger‑ und D2C‑Strategie.
- Marktdynamik: Diskussion über Aufkommen oraler Therapien und deren Einfluss; Management lobt oralen Fortschritt, hält aber Monatsdosis als strategisches Asset.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bewertung: Für Aktionäre signalisiert das Event: Execution und M&A‑Integration stehen im Vordergrund; der Kurs hängt jetzt stark an mehreren binären R&D‑Katalysatoren (ADC‑Readouts, Metsera Phase‑III, Lyme, C.difficile, Pneumokokken). Policy‑Reformen könnten kurzfristig stützen, LOE‑Risiken bleiben mittelfristig relevant.
Pfizer — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, everyone, and welcome to Pfizer's Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Francesca DeMartino, Chief Investor Relations Officer and Senior Vice President. Please go ahead, ma'am. .
Good morning, and welcome to Pfizer's earnings call. I'm Francesca DeMartino, Chief Investor Relations Officer. On behalf of the Pfizer team, thank you for joining us. This call is being made available via audio webcast at pfizer.com. Earlier this morning, we released our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 via a press release that is available on our website at pfizer.com.
I'm joined today by Dr. Albert Bourla, our Chairman and CEO; and Dr. Chris Boshoff, our Scientific Officer -- Chief Scientific Officer; and Dave Denton, our CFO. Albert, Chris and Dave have some prepared remarks, and we will then open the call for questions.
Members of our leadership team will be available for the Q&A session. Before we get started, I want to remind you that we will be making forward-looking statements and discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. I encourage you to read the disclaimers in our slide presentation, the press release we issued this morning and the disclosures in our SEC filings, which are all available on the IR website on pfizer.com. Forward-looking statements on the call are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties speak only as of the call's original date and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of the statements.
With that, I will turn the call over to Albert.
Thank you, Francesca. So 2025 was a very good year for Pfizer. I'm very pleased with strong execution to deliver and, frankly, over deliver on our financial commitments. We exceeded expectations for revenues and adjusted diluted EPS while also returning $9.8 billion to shareholders via our quarterly dividend. We grew overall operational revenue for full year 2025 when excluding COVID-19 products, achieved solid double-digit growth in recently launched and acquired products and expanded adjusted gross margins.
Strategic actions in 2025 helped us resolve significant uncertainty, including achieving greater clarity on pricing and tariffs and demonstrating the underlying resilience of our business to deliver EPS despite the lowest ever COVID-19 season. We achieved 4 key approvals, 8 critical readouts and initiated 11 pivotal studies. And our Metsera, YaoPharma and 3SBio deals help strengthen our robust pipeline.
Overall, 2025 reinforced how well Pfizer can execute. We strengthened a foundation, positioning us for growth towards the end of the decade, continued impact for patient and long-term shareholder value. We have once again defined strategic priorities for the year ahead, which we presented at JPMorgan. 2026 is an important year in a pivotal investment period as we strive for industry-leading growth after several key products lose patent for regulatory exclusivity in the next few years. Seagen, Metsera and Biohaven are the most significant strategic acquisitions in recent years. They have transformative potential for Pfizer, and we are focused on maximizing the value of in-line product portfolios and accelerating pipeline development.
We made continued progress last year, integrating legacy Seagen products into our commercial portfolio. I'm also pleased with notable advances in our development programs, including a recent FDA approval for Padcev in combination with pembro for patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer who are ineligible for cisplatin-containing chemotherapy. We are encouraged by the opportunity to build on this with an expected regulatory decision for patients with cisplatin-eligible MIBC.
If successful we will substantially expand the U.S. addressable population with up to approximately 22,500 additional patients across both cis-eligible and cis-ineligible muscle invasive bladder cancer, up from about 19,000 patients in metastatic urothelial cancer. We have a clear strategy aiming for Pfizer leadership in the next generation of therapies for chronic weight management with a highly differentiated Metsera pipeline portfolio, our YaoPharma exclusive global collaboration and licensing agreement and other Pfizer programs such as our oral GIPR antaagonist candidate.
Since closing our Biohaven acquisition a few years ago, we have globally scaled a leading migraine portfolio. It strengthened our product mix to drive significant impact both for patients and our commercial performance. Nurtec has a strong market leadership position in the oral CGRP class in 2025. In Q4, we captured 83% of new CGRP writer volume and remain the leader in new patient starts.
I expect 2026 to be also a very rich year for key catalysts and we intend to deliver on our critical R&D milestones. This year, we anticipate progress with approximately 20 recently initiated and planned key pivotal studies, with 10 of them in the Metsera portfolio; and 4, with our anti-PD-1 VEGF bispecific. Among 8 expected key readouts, we anticipate, 1, for SV, our novel potential first in-class integrin beta 6-targeting vedotin ADC. The readout will be in second line plus non-squamous metastatic non-small cell lung cancer, which affects about 50,000 patients in the U.S. and more than 200,000 patients globally.
We are also expecting key Phase III readouts for Elrexfio in double class exposed relapsed-refractory multiple myeloma and for our Lyme disease vaccine candidate. The foundation of our strategy in obesity and adjacent condition is targeting breakthrough medicines in what could be $150 billion mark.
Earlier today, we announced encouraging results from our VESPER-3 study, which previously was known as Metsera-097i, the ultra-long acting investigational next-generation injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist. In a few moments, Chris Boshoff, our Chief Scientific Officer will walk through additional details and our plans for advancing our obesity portfolio this year. Oncology is another source of strength, and I'm excited by opportunities for significant progress in 2026, that was built on our established presence in breast, in genitourinary, in thoracic and gastrointestinal cancer and of course, blood cancer.
In addition to promising programs, such as the SV, our oncology team is moving quickly with a robust program for '4404, the bispecific antibody licensed last year from 3SBio. We have 7 near-term plans or recently started trials for '4404, including 2 large global Phase III studies, anchoring our efforts to establish this investigational medicine as a potential backbone therapy across multiple tumor types.
We're also pleased that the FDA has granted Hympavzi breakthrough therapy designation for investigation in younger pediatric patients aged 6 to 11 in hemophilia B with or without inhibitors. That's an important innovative medicine today, and we are investigating the full potential of Hympavzi to support more patients living with hemophilia.
Our third strategic priority is investing to maximize post 2028 growth. We are committed to fully supporting a robust and accelerated approach to R&D, the successful commercial launch of new products and both on business development while maintaining our robust dividend. And finally, we are scaling artificial intelligence across R&D, manufacturing, commercial and patient engagement to improve productivity and accelerate innovation. We have been setting the foundation with AI already data, agentic workflows and compute capacity. To meet the growing AI demand over the next 2 years, we are expanding to more than 1,200 GPUs, largely driven by R&D application of AI.
In R&D, we are embedding AI across discovery, development, regulatory and medical to increase productivity and accelerate the pipeline and time lines. AI is optimizing supply planning and manufacturing, contributing to our manufacturing optimization program goals. In commercial, AI is helping to accelerate new product launches delivering insights for dynamic targeting and supporting personalized messaging and real-time marketing content.
So with that and after I described the 4 priorities, which describe the full picture of what we plan to do in 2026, I will turn it over to Chris to discuss for the news of the day, which are the Metsera long-acting announcement of VESPER-3.
Chris?
Thank you, Albert. It is my pleasure to discuss the VESPER-3 study results today and provide more color to our press release this morning. These data are an important advancement in our obesity portfolio because they increased significantly our confidence in the Phase III monthly dosing study that we expect to start later this year.
To start, I'd like to review how the structure of PF'3944 drives its long half-life. Prior GLP-1 receptor agonists that rely on albumin binding to extend half-life require dissociation from the albumin protein for optimal receptor engagement, '3944 binds the GLP-1 receptor while still bound to albumin due to lipidation of the terminal end of the amino acid chain rather than in the middle. This allows for reduced clearance without reduced receptor engagement resulting in a half-life exceeding other agents that require albumin dissociation for binding.
A key differentiator of '3944 is this extended half-life, which supports monthly dosing. Furthermore, given '3944 length of 41 amino acids, the molecule is considered a biologic and would be eligible for regulatory review by the BLA pathway. The right side of the slide shows previously reported data from the Phase IIb VESPER-1 study, evaluating '3944 dosed weekly and without titration. These data show dose-dependent placebo-adjusted weight loss of up to 14.1% at week 28, demonstrating the molecule's potential to deliver efficacy that is competitive with the standard of care and potentially best in class among mono agonists.
In our currently ongoing weekly Phase III study of '3944 VESPER-4, we are also testing a higher dose of 2.4 milligrams weekly. With VESPER-3, we aim to achieve 2 key objectives: first, to demonstrate that we could achieve continued weight loss when switching from weekly to monthly subcutaneous injections and maintain '3944 efficacy while reducing the dosing frequency four-fold. And second, to demonstrate that '3944 could switch to a 4-fold equivalent monthly dose while maintaining a well-tolerated and favorable safety profile.
Today, I will walk you through these data, which demonstrate we've successfully achieved both. The VESPER-3 Phase IIb study was designed to evaluate '3944 with monthly maintenance dosing following a titration period of up to 12 weeks. This study compares 4 different dosing regimens versus placebo with a prespecified interim tolerability analysis at Week 12 and a primary reporting milestone at week 28. Arm 1 and Arm 3 are low and medium dose regimens that we plan to advance to Phase III, and these 2 study arms are the focus of the data we are sharing today.
Starting with our first objective. I'm pleased to share that we observed robust statistically significant weight loss across all doses tested. At week 28, placebo-adjusted weight loss was 10% and 12.3% for our planned low and medium Phase III doses, respectively. These results are shown in the blue bars and represent the trial's efficacy estimate. In the teal bars are our model predictions of the potential efficacy we would expect with monthly maintenance dosing of '3944 in the study of adults with obesity or overweight and without type 2 diabetes, similar to VESPER-3. a model-based meta-analysis approach was used to generate these predictions. This approach uses a mathematical model to capture the weight loss trajectory over time and the dose response relationship.
This model was built, taking into account the observed data from the VESPER-3 trial, the available data from other 3944 clinical studies and data from published trials of other weight loss. For the low and medium dose regimens, we see excellent concordance between our VESPER-3 clinical data in blue and our model predictions in teal, applying the same model to project the potential efficacy of the planned Phase III high-dose regimen of 9.6 milligrams monthly, we predict placebo-adjusted weight loss of nearly 16% at week 28.
Note the high dose is already being studied in the VESPER-4 Phase III study as a 2.4-milligram weekly dose. Collectively, our clinical data model predictions show that '3944 can deliver robust weight loss after switching to monthly administration and suggest that we can potentially achieve increased efficacy with a higher dose. Moreover, VESPER-3 data do not show a weight-loss plateau reached at Week 28, projecting continued weight loss is expected as the study continues through Week 64.
With these results, we are confident that '3944 has the potential to deliver efficacy that is competitive with the standard of care and potentially best-in-class among monoagonists with a differentiated monthly dosing format. Next, I'll turn your attention to the second objective of VESPER-3 demonstrating a well-tolerated and favorable safety profile for '3944 when switching to a 4-fold equivalent monthly dose.
Similar to our first objective, I'm pleased to report that year too '3944 delivered. In VESPER-3 '3944 has displayed a well-tolerated and favorable safety profile that is consistent with what has been observed with weekly GLP-1 receptor agonists, observed gastrointestinal treatment-emergent adverse events were predominantly mild or moderate with no more than 1 instance of severe nausea or vomiting in any dose group and no instances of severe diarrhea.
Treatment discontinuation rates for VESPER-3 weekly and monthly phases both show a compelling profile across the dose regimens planned for inclusion in Phase III. Five participants discontinued due to adverse events in each of the weekly and monthly phases. There were no discontinuations due to adverse events in the placebo group. We're encouraged by these results as they serve as an important proof of concept for the delivery of our four-fold equivalent monthly dose that maintains competitive tolerability, particularly given the study protocol did not limit down titration.
The totality of tolerability data support our plans to evaluate a higher monthly dose of 9.6 milligrams in Phase III, which is the monthly equivalent to the 2.4 milligram weekly dose currently being studied in the ongoing VESPER-4 trial. Today's encouraging results bolster our expansive obesity program. This year, we plan to advance 20-plus obesity trials, including 10 Phase III studies of '3944 that span chronic weight management, obesity associated comorbidities and opportunities to increase patient optionality and access.
We are targeting the first of a series of potential approvals in 2028. Looking to our early-stage programs, we are enthusiastic about Phase II studies with our ultra long-acting amylin analog which we believe has the potential for class-leading efficacy and combinability with '3944 in a monthly dosing format. We previously reported positive early data from the single ascending dose combination study, which showed well-tolerated starting doses and additive weight loss.
We plan to show updated combination data later this year. We continue to advance our potentially person class oral GIPR antagonist that is in Phase II and additional Phase I studies of agents with diverse modalities and mechanisms. These include an injectable ultra-long-acting GIPR agonist a potential quarterly dose injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist and oral candidates.
To summarize, today's results are clear. VESPER-3 achieved its 2 main objectives: reinforcing '3944 potential potent and tolerable monthly profile. The ultra-long acting GLP-1 receptor agonist serves as a foundation to our differentiated investigational obesity portfolio, delivering robust weight loss with no plateau served at Week 28 in VESPER-3, while also maintaining competitive tolerability when switching to a four-fold equivalent monthly dose. We are primed to execute across an expansive Phase III program of '3944, targeting potential approval starting in 2028. And we are pursuing differentiated combination approaches with earlier-stage agents that have the potential to deliver greater optionality to address the diverse unmet needs of patients. With that, I'll turn it back to Albert.
Thank you, Chris. And I just wanted to say that today's results provide a compelling validation of our unique proprietary ultra long-acting peptide platform. For the first time, we have shown that the GLP-1 receptor agonist peptides can be administered monthly while maintaining the potential for competitive efficacy and safety. We are pleased with this important milestone for the platform that reinforces both the differentiation of our technology and the significant long-term value creation opportunity that represents. And with that now, I will turn it over to Dave that he will discuss the excellent results of the quarter.
So Dave?
Great. Thank you, Chris and Albert, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin today by highlighting that our strong financial performance for both the fourth quarter and the full year directly reflects our continued disciplined execution of our key strategic priorities. We resolved certain and significant uncertainties in our business and made strategic investments aimed at driving revenue growth later this decade and beyond. .
Looking ahead, Pfizer is approaching an exciting phase, where recently launched and acquired products and a strong pipeline are anticipated to spur growth towards the end of this decade. With that said, this morning, I'll provide our full year and fourth quarter -- full year and fourth quarter 2025 results, then I'll touch on our cost improvement initiatives as well as our capital allocation priorities. I'll finish with a few comments on our '26 guidance, which we are reaffirming today. For the full year 2025, we recorded revenues of $62.6 billion versus $63.6 billion last year representing a 2% operational decline.
Importantly, our operational revenue growth when excluding contributions from our COVID-19 projects was 6%. Full year 2025 adjusted gross margins expanded to 76%, in line with our expectations. We will continue to drive cost improvements going forward across our manufacturing network. And on the bottom line, we reported full year 2025 diluted EPS of $1.36, versus $1.41 last year and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $3.22 versus $3.11 LY, ahead of expectations.
Pfizer's recently launched and acquired set of products delivered $10.2 billion in revenues for the full year of '25 while growing approximately 14% operationally versus last year. We plan to continue to invest behind these 2 product groups to drive their future performance to enable the company to partially offset our LOEs over the next several years.
Now turning to the fourth quarter of '25, we recorded revenues of $17.6 billion, a decrease of 3% operationally versus the same period of largely driven by an approximate 40% operational year-over-year decline in our COVID products. The decline was primarily due to Comirnaty receiving a narrow recommendation for vaccines in the U.S. and Paxlovid, which experienced reduced demand from lower infection rates. Having said that, our non-COVID product performance was solid, growing 9% operationally versus the same period of last year.
Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of our refined commercial strategy. We saw solid contributions across our product portfolio, primarily driven by Abrysvo, Eliquis, Prevnar and the Vyndaqel family. Adjusted gross margin for the fourth quarter was approximately 71%, primarily reflecting the product mix in the quarter, including lower commodity sales versus fourth quarter of '24 as well as continued strong cost management.
Future improvements in our manufacturing footprint remained a top priority going forward. As a reminder, over the past 2 years, our adjusted gross margins have generally remained in the mid- to upper 70s. Excluding Comirnaty, which has a 50-50 profit split with our partner, BioNTech, we achieved approximately $600 million in savings from Phase 1 of our manufacturing optimization program through 2025 and with additional savings expected in '26 and '27.
Total adjusted operating expenses were $7.4 billion for the fourth quarter of '25, in line with last year. But looking at the components, adjusted SI&A expenses decreased 5% operationally, primarily driven by focused investments and ongoing productivity improvements that drove a decrease in marketing and promotional spend for various products and lower spending in corporate-enabling functions.
Adjusted R&D expense increased 4% operationally, primarily driven by the increase in spending in oncology and obesity product candidates, partially offset by a net decrease in spending due to pipeline focus and optimization, including the expansion of our digital capabilities. Now turning to the bottom line. In the fourth quarter, our reported diluted GAAP performance was a loss per share of $0.29. Our adjusted diluted earnings per share performance was a profit of $0.66, ahead of our expectations due to our overall gross margin and cost management performance.
In support of our goal to enhance R&D productivity and focus on high-impact medicines, our fourth quarter GAAP results reflect strategic decisions in our development plans and updated long-range revenue forecast for certain products and pipeline assets. As a result, we recorded approximately $4.4 billion of noncash intangible asset impairments related to several medicines in development as well as in-line products.
It is important to note that one of the asset indications we deprioritized was disitamab vedotin in bladder cancer is largely the result of the recently strong study readouts, expanded indications and related higher long-term revenue projections for Paxlovid. Paxlovid is an asset we will continue to invest behind and thus diminishing the value of DV in bladder cancer. I will also mention, while impairment decisions are based on current valuations of individual assets, overall, the Seagen portfolio is progressing ahead of our expectations. These decisions highlight our focus on delivering future growth as well as innovation.
We are on track to deliver the majority of the anticipated $7.2 billion in total net cost savings from our productivity programs by the end of 2026. We expect additional savings of $700 million in '26 and $200 million in '27 from Phase 1 of the manufacturing optimization program for a total of $1.5 billion in savings by the end of '27. In addition, we exceeded our savings targets through '25 from our cost realignment program and as previously communicated, the R&D savings achieved in '25 under the cost realignment program is expected to be reinvested in '26 and is reflected in our '26 R&D guidance range.
We remain committed to achieving the expected $5.7 billion of total net savings from our cost realignment program by the end of '26, at which time we will have met our savings commitment under the program. Going forward, we will continue to focus on identifying further productivity opportunities and efficiencies. Now let me quickly touch upon our capital allocation strategy, which is designed to enhance long-term shareholder value.
Our strategy consists of maintaining and over the long term, growing our dividend, reinvesting in our business at the appropriate level of financial return and in the future, the potential to make value-enhancing share repurchases. And in '25, we returned $9.8 billion to shareholders via the quarterly dividend, invested $10.4 billion in internal R&D, invested approximately $8.8 billion in business development transactions, primarily reflecting the Metsera acquisition and the 3SBio licensing deal. And as a reminder, our leverage is expected to end 2025 at near a 2.7x target following the close of the Metsera transaction.
However, given the next few years of LOE headwinds, we expect the leverage to remain at this current level or slightly higher through the LOE period. Additionally, the planned sale of our stake in V will further improve our balance sheet. When including the proceeds, we have approximately $7 billion in BD capacity. Now let me turn quickly to our full year '26 guidance, again, which remains unchanged. We expect total company full year '26 revenues to be in the range of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion and full year '26 adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $2.80 to $3 a share, which reflects our expectations of strong contributions across our product portfolio, mid-70s adjusted gross margin, continued focus on strong cost management, all while prioritizing investments in our business to drive growth by the end of this decade.
Our COVID products are expected to trend lower again in '26 with revenues of approximately $5 billion. We continue to expect stable revenue contributions from our non-COVID product portfolio, which incorporates an expectation of approximately $1.5 billion in revenue compression due to products impacted by anticipated generic entry in '26. Revenues at the midpoint, excluding COVID and LOE products are expected to grow approximately 4% operationally year-over-year.
And lastly, I will mention that we will continue to monitor currency fluctuation as the year progresses. In closing, let me continue to emphasize that over the next few years, our focus is on investing in key assets and managing upcoming LOEs, mainly from 2026 to 2028. At the end of the decade, growth is expected to be driven by our advancing R&D pipeline, the business development initiatives we've already executed and the ongoing progress of products we've recently launched or acquired. Our goal is to invest strategically balancing cost savings with funding high-value products designed to ensure long-term and sustainable growth potential for our shareholders. And with that, I'll turn it back to Albert and begin the Q&A.
Thank you, David, and congratulations for an excellent quarter. Now operator, please assemble the queue. .
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Chris Schott with JPMorgan.
2. Question Answer
Just had maybe a 2-parter on the VESPER-3 data. I guess, first, can you just elaborate any more on the tolerability you saw here? And maybe just specifically, is there anything more you can say about vomit rates or any differences you saw between the mild or moderate dosing arms? And then just maybe bigger picture, if we consider the 2 doses that are moving forward from VESPER-3, it seems like you have a drug that clearly had solid weight loss. It's got monthly dosing. At the same time, that weight loss might be a bit below what you saw the weekly [indiscernible] Zepbound. I just wanted to get your views on what role you see that type of profile playing in the market.
Excellent. And of course, I will start with Chris, which I suspect will be the one who will receive most of the questions today, and I love it. So -- and then maybe we'll ask of course the commercial guys to speak a little bit about it. So Chris, why don't you start?
Yes. Thanks for the question. So obviously, we will share the full tolerability data at our oral presentation at ADA in June. We are really encouraged by the observed distribution of AEs across weekly and monthly. And you could have expected potentially that when patients switch to a 4-fold higher dose, we're going to have a higher number of sudden discontinuations and nausea and vomiting, [ we did not ], nicely distribution between the monthly as well as the weekly.
Just to remember for this study, there was no step down titration was allowed, which is unusual for obesity trials. But that will obviously not happen in the Phase III study, we will allow down-titration. Regarding the different doses, as we pointed out, low and medium was presented today, the higher dose is already being tested in VESPER-4 because previous prediction models indicated that it will be well tolerated and we should test 2.4 milligrams weekly, which is happening now. And in the monthly study we'll test [ 9.6 ] as pointed out.
All right. Why don't we go -- Aamir, how do you see this play in commercial and then Alexandre?
I think when you look at the clinical data, I think what it suggest to us, clearly, is that '3944 from an efficacy perspective has the potential to deliver efficacy that's competitive with the standard of care and potentially best-in-class against [ monotherapy ]. So we think when you take that efficacy and then you combine it with a lower medication burden through a monthly dose, that's a value proposition that's going to resonate with patients, with providers and with payers because persistency and simplicity matter.
And it also gives us the opportunity to switch patients from weekly onto monthly therapy. So we think '3944 is going to be a compelling therapy full stop. And then you add to that the opportunity that exists from the other assets that we have in our portfolio with our commercial capabilities to execute in U.S. and international, and I think it gives us a lot of confidence around the commercial potential.
Yes. Thank you, Aamir. The surprise, I think, so far with this market, it is how well it is performing outside the U.S. So Alexandre, what's your take?
That's right. Just -- what's really interesting in this category is actually the size of the market, ex U.S. is projected to be $150 billion and 40% of that is actually ex-U.S. There are 2 things that are really interesting in this category that are unique and that reinforce the potential of these assets. First, is the out-of-pocket category. Because in most countries, when we introduced innovation, we have to go through reimbursement negotiation and often translate into price reduction in this category.
We see that there are high willingness to pay out of pocket across all mature markets, either be in Europe or in Australia or Canada, and we see price point being [ across $250 to $350 ], which is higher than what we had expected. And when we look at the latest release from our competitors in this category, we see that there is higher willingness to pay from all those geographies, including actually also emerging markets where we also see high prevalence. The second is the time to market because it's going to be mostly an out-of-pocket category, the time after approval at the EMEA will be instant and where we will be able to actually commercialize those products. So that will drive also rapid penetration in the market.
Thank you, Alexander.
Our next question comes from Vamil Divan with Guggenheim Securities.
So just maybe building off this, Chris, you just talked a little bit about this in a prior question around down attrition in Phase III. Can you just elaborate a little bit more on that kind of how you are designing your Phase IIIs and allowing for flexibility of the patient maybe you're dealing with any sort of side effects and maybe that improves overall the profile you see from Phase II? And then my other question is actually is beyond VESPER-3. You mentioned this at ADA. I'm curious what other data we may get from either your internal programs or from the Metsera portfolio at ADA vis-a-vis your internal GIPR. Do you expect to provide that Phase II data there?
Thank you very much for the question. Just a reminder again for the VESPER-3 data we presented today is only 2 step-up doses. You used to 4, 5 step-up doses to get to the desired dose in this study, there's only 2 step-up doses. So the Phase III design for VESPER-6 will test different titrations as well as, as we pointed out, the additional dose of 9.6 milligrams which is currently being tested in VESPER-4 as 2.4 milligrams weekly.
Regarding the next -- the rest of the portfolio, we're obviously excited about the platform in general. It's a very differentiated platform. As you know, we previously presented data for the ultra-long acting amylin '3945 also called MET-233, where the observed additive weight loss when combining '3944 and '3945 was 5% at day 8 and single agent ultra-long amylin previous data showed at Day 36, 8.4% placebo-adjusted weight loss. So we should share later this year, including ADA, updated date on amylin and potential early data for the combination of the amylin plus '3944.
We also, as you know, in our portfolio, excited about the rest of the Phase II programs, which including a first in -- potential first-in-class GIPR antagonist oral that was discovered, conceptualized internally, that's currently in the randomized Phase II experience and also the more broader Phase I program of peptides, including an ultra-long GLP-1 that's potentially monthly quarterly, that's currently in Phase I as well as our additional oral portfolio, including the oral GLP-1 recently acquired from YaoPharma.
Our next question comes from Steve Scala with TD Cowen.
In the VESPER-3 data, did the placebo arm gain weight or lose weight? And the second question is not on obesity, but Pfizer has been quite adamant about no life beyond [ December '28 ] for [ Vyndaqel]. Should we completely rule out any sort of strategy whatsoever such as settlement with generic companies on patents Pfizer holds?
Thank you, Steve. Let me take the Vyndaqel because I have been asked multiple times. Right now, we are assuming that the patent will be lost at the end of 2028. And I don't have any other comments to make on that. These are very sensitive topics. So I'm moving to to Chris now to talk about the placebo arm of what was the weight lost there.
Again, the full data will present at ADA, but in this case, as VESPER-3, actually, the placebo arm was very stable, not really up or down, but you'll see the data at ADA.
Our next question comes from Geoff Meacham with Citibank. .
Congrats on the data today, again, a few on the new data today. So when you look at the PK/PD, are you guys set with monthly being the longest dosing interval to preserve efficacy? Or is it potentially -- is it feasible to extend to every 2-month dosing? And then on your Phase III plans, is it [indiscernible] likely to be the standard type of metabolic studies that we'd expect to do? Or would you pursue any maybe inflammation or neuropsych indications? Or would you pursue GLP-1 active comparator studies? Just trying to think of how you could separate yourself in a broad Phase III program.
Yes. Thank you, Geoff. So Chris, [ monthly ] more and then additional studies.
So thank you for the question. So '3944 is, as we demonstrated the first peptide that can be administered monthly. And potentially, yes, we can go longer, but for '3944, our aim is as a monthly maintenance therapy. As I mentioned, we do have another molecule, a peptide currently in Phase I, which has a prodrug propeptide with a potential for 3 monthly administrations. That's currently in Phase I, and we should, in the next couple of months, get additional PK/PD data from that molecule, which will be a potential opportunity to go to 3 monthly.
The second question, the initial Phase III programs VESPER-4, VESPER-5 and VESPER-6, VESPER-4 is the one in patients without type 2 diabetes that's currently ongoing with weekly testing, including the high dose of 2.4 milligram weekly, VESPER-5 in patients with type 2 diabetes and VESPER-6, the study that will include monthly dosing. Beyond that, we plan to start 7 studies. We haven't showed or revealed what these studies are going to be.
But you're absolutely correct that beyond cardiovascular metabolic, we are looking at other opportunities to differentiate and also to differentiate with our combinations, for instance with Amylin or with the GIPR currently in Phase I.
Our next question comes from Terence flynn with Morgan Stanley.
Maybe 2 also for me on the VESPER-3 data. I know you want to hold a lot of data until ADA, but just was wondering if you can provide any high-level details on the baseline characteristics, so either BMI or gender mix. I know sometimes those can vary across studies. And then on the tolerability side, again, 1 question when you have longer dosing intervals is the duration of GI side effects. And so any qualitative commentary there, if that's longer than 1 or 2 days.
Chris, again, that goes to you.
Okay. Just to start with the demographics. The study was conducted in the U.S. only. And I think, as you know, there are differences, especially in AE and tolerability, discontinuations between U.S.-only patient populations. So that's one. The rest of the detailed demographics will be presented at ADA, but it's as expected from a small U.S.-based Phase II study. The next question was...? .
What was the next question? tolerability?
On tolerability. As we said it before, we are encouraged by the overall tolerability. It is similar to what you expect for GLP-1 class, but Specifically, we can move to monthly with a distribution of AEs across weekend monthly. That didn't give us alarm that's switching to monthly, suddenly, there's a cluster of discontinuations or significant AEs. As I pointed out earlier as well, there's no -- there's only 1 severe nausea, 1 severe vomiting across the whole program, no severe diarrhea. So overall, we're very encouraged by the safety profile. And again, ADA will share the whole AE profile. .
Our next question comes from Akash Tewari with Jefferies.
So the data data in second-line plus NSCLC has been pretty underwhelming so far versus docetaxel. Is your team confident that you can deliver a superior profile with your upcoming Phase III with B6A. Or are you going to need to enrich in B6A high-expressing patients. Can you help frame expectations for this readout? .
Chris?
So you're referring to sigvotatug vedotin, yes?
Yes.
Yes. Correct. Okay. So this is a second-line study, I should point out against docetaxel, the Phase III study, there's also additional Phase III study ongoing, just a reminder, which is first line, which is sigvotatug vedotin plus pembrolizumab versus pembrolizumab in the TPS high PD-L1 high population. In the single agent activity we've seen was the response rate was over 30% with a median overall survival in the Phase II study, which approached 16.3 months.
So overall, we're encouraged by the data with the combination study with [indiscernible] pembrolizumab. We saw overall response at 57% with disease control rate of over 90%. So we are confident in the 2 studies. I agree with you that the second-line study against docetaxel, none of the ADCs have really showed a benefit over docetaxel, but everything we've seen so far. So gives us confidence in the trial. That will be the first study to read out.
And the second study to read out will be the one with pembrolizumab versus pembrolizumab. It's an even-driven study. Events are slower than we expected. So that could mean either ARM are performing better, but we should update you on the study results in the coming months -- first half of this year.
Excellent, Chris. So the next question, please. .
Thank you. We'll go next to Asad Haider with Goldman Sachs. .
Great. And thanks for all the detail on the clinical catalyst. Maybe just 1 on portfolio realignment, Albert, with respect to just this recent divestment of your stake in the HIV joint venture. Just broadly, what innings are we in, in terms of just portfolio pruning or realignment, noting that you've also recently announced a new reorganization incorporating your global hospital and biosimilars business?
I think Chris can also comment on that, but let me given that you address the question to me, I think we have done most of our pruning of our pipeline right now. So the things that we are continuing right now at large are things that we believe they are the ones to invest and we keep investing very, very few exceptions of things that were already there and we had some issues to discontinue or to divest. So I think -- from that aspect, I think we are doing very well. Chris, anything to add there?
Yes, we're focusing this on the 4 therapeutic areas, and we during 2025 significant prioritization and focus the program. And as you know, identified up to $500 million savings in R&D, which is now reinvested in Phase III programs. And this year, as Albert pointed out, we plan to start approximately 20 Phase III programs driving the portfolio.
And maybe -- Dave also can add a little bit color on that. But I just wanted to say that when you speak about creating or creating cost savings in R&D that we reinvest, we don't mean going forward with discontinuation of program, actually, with increase of programs. It's going to be by deploying AI, which already happened in 2025 with excellent results that creates significant productivity gains. This is where we are reducing the cost of R&D. And we all are invested to more programs that, as you see, we are starting to pivotal studies in '26. Dave?
Yes, I just would just add on to that. As we look at our in-line portfolio of products, we always continue to look to see how we can maximize the value. Viv is just a good example of nonstrategic asset for us, monetizing that in such a way that we can redeploy that capital at higher returns in the future. As you pointed out, we did create a sterile injectable and biosimilar of which we're focused on driving productivity across that set of product portfolio. And we will continue to do that as we think about our product portfolio going forward.
Our next question comes from Courtney Breen with Bernstein. .
Just perhaps building on the conversation that was just taking place. As you talk about the 20-plus pivotal studies that are starting this year, we're seeing kind of a midpoint $11 billion guide for R&D in '26. How do we think about '27 as you study start to annualize? And then kind of combining that with the element that you just raised out a bit of the AI investment, the 1,200 GPU deployment that you're making kind of when and where will we begin to see impact from that strategy? And will that impact anything in the operations of R&D of the pivotal trials? Or should we be thinking more about innovation on the research side over the long run?
Courtney, that's a very good question. As you can understand, we don't give guidance for 2027. But I will ask Dave to give some color.
Yes. I guess contextually, if you just think about R&D, as we cycled from '25 into '26, with the business development transactions that we've done, we've actually increased the burden and the load of work that needs to be done within our R&D infrastructure. At the same time, we're investing about $11 billion in R&D. So we are being able to be more productive in the infrastructure across R&D and take on more substrate to be able to focus on creating medicines for the end of the decade and beyond.
So I think what we're trying to do is continue to refresh improve the productivity across our R&D platform to invest those dollars back into R&D to continue to forward advance the programs that we have underway and the programs that we're developing. As you know, 2026 is a big start year for us from a science perspective. We will continue to focus on those investments going forward.
Our next question comes from Umer Raffat with Evercore ISI.
Two quick ones, if I may. First, on the monotherapy. Could you remind us if the 9.6 milligram monthly dose was the reaction to the data today? Or is that already being contemplated? And then secondly, on the emerging tolerability data for your [ GLIP ] amylin combo, how are you feeling on that? And do you think you can fit the GLiP plus amylin in a single pill?
Okay. Thank you, Tomas. On the first question, a reminder that the 2.4 milligrams is already being tested as a weekly regimen as a high dose in VESPER-4, and that decision was made based on the modeling based meta analysis. And as we showed today, our modeling predicts very well between what we actually observed and by the modeling predicted for 3.2 and 4.8. So we have confidence in the modeling also for 9.6 or the 2.4 milligrams
And which basically what you say is that the 9.6, it is the 2.4
Correct.
4x weekly, it is 9.6 monthly. .
And correct, yes. what is the second part?
Combination
So just a reminder that the combination is monthly, it's amylin plus GLP-1 ultra-long monthly subcutaneous. So it's not [ pill ]. We do have an oral portfolio, and we do have some other oral medicines discovered internally, which we've not revealed yet, but currently, our oral medicines, gLP-1 and GIPR, not the amylin as oral. .
And how do you feel about this day?
And we'll show data for the amylin plus GLP-1 monthly data for the ultra long-acting monthly data at ADA. The earlier data we've shown reminder of the combination of '3944 plus '3945 was 5% at day 8. That was early data that was shown and we'll update those data later this year.
Our next question comes from Jason Gerberry with Bank of America. .
I apologize for the background noise. But just based on today's VESPER-3 update, just kind of curious how you're thinking about the value add of the GLP-1 amylin injectable combination relative to the monotherapy? And are you really looking to kind of compete in that ultra high efficacy tier with agents like Lilly's [ GGG ]? Or is the value-add potentially more in GLP-1 nonresponders? Just sort of curious because it seems like what you have with the monotherapy approach to make you competitive with Zepbound and [ Meritage ]? So just sort of curious how you think about the combo and where that fits.
Why don't I ask Chris to give a little bit of science behind this combination and then I will ask Amir and Alexandre to comment on how that can be marketed.
Yes, we will have optionality because we are developing in Phase 3 both the single agent '3944 as well as the combination '3944 plus '3945. Everything we've seen thus far suggests us to us, to your point, that we should get increased efficacy for the combination. And that's why we hope to update data later this year, start the Phase II study this year and then next year start the Phase III study for the combination.
And then Aamir, how do you see this playing as portfolio
Yes, Jason. So I think the quick answer would be, look, I think we're in the very early innings of a large market where there is still significant unmet need, right? There's more convenient dosing that's needed, higher weight loss for certain BMI patients, GI tolerabilities need to improve maintenance strategies, friction in the patient journey. So our belief is that there's not going to be 1 single asset that serves all those patients. People are going to have different starting points hold preferences on their dosing and route of administration comorbidities, their willingness to pay.
And what you need to win in a market like that is, one, you need a great portfolio of products that can serve all those patients. And two, you need really differentiated capabilities. And I think with Chris describing not only our data today, but some of the other things that we have in our portfolio, we have the first piece in place and emerging. And we feel very confident about our commercial capabilities, whether it's our field forces that are the top ranked in the U.S. and already are seeing the majority of GLP-1 prescribers or the digital platforms that we're building like Pfizer For All that have touched over 25 million patients. So when you put that all together, we have a lot of confidence in our ability to win commercially in this market with these assets.
Thank you. And Alexandr3, any additional? .
No.
Okay. Let's go to the next question, please.
Our next question comes from Michael Yee with UBS.
Two questions, 1 for Chris and 1 for Dave. On the oral GLP-1 that you guys recently in-licensed, can you just remind us how much information you knew or what data you already had? I believe there's already a large Phase I going. So that should add some comfort there, but tell us about what you knew already on that molecule. And then for Dave, you reiterated $7 billion of capacity. Can you just talk about the ability to do more in the context of the recent dividend pause or at least dividend growth pause recently given that, that does not happen very often and how you think about your dividend.
Let me start with Dave at this time and then we go to Chris
Yes. So clearly, our focus is maintaining our dividend at the moment and growing our dividend over time. So it's a very important and critical structure and component of our capital allocation program. And again, we do have -- coming into this year, we had $6 billion in BD capacity. It's actually gone up a bit as we've announced the pending liquidation of the [ VIVA ] asset. So that actually is a good example of how we're looking at the set of assets that we have within Pfizer and understanding how we can best monetize them over time. So with that, I'll turn it over to Chris.
Thank you very much. 5002 is the YaoPharma oral small molecule, which is not on done at Lupron Scaffold. It's currently in Phase I, and we've acquired it through an exclusive global collaboration and license agreement with YaoPharma. And we plan to conduct Phase I studies and also combination studies with our GIPR antagonist that's currently in the randomized experience in Phase II. And we're currently transitioning all the work to the U.S. to start Phase I studies in the U.S., including manufacturing in the year.
We'll go next to Alex Hammond with Wolfe Research. .
So one of the key readouts guided for '26 is that Lyme disease vaccine VALOR study but a few on this. When could we expect an update and what are expectations for the launch if positive. What does vaccine contracting look like and what channels will be the key target for you? And I guess, finally, how big could this opportunity really be?
Yes, Lyme diseae?
Yes. Thank you. I'll start. So thank you very much. This could be a first-in-class vaccine for Lyme disease, the Phase III [ VALOR ] trial. It's a multivalent protein subunit vaccine targeting all 6 out of surface proteins of Verallia burgdorferi. The study we expect to read out first half of this year. Just a reminder, approximately 400,000 people in the U.S. and 132,000 people in Europe, affected by Lyme disease. And as you know, significant long-term morbidity and long-term sequelae. So a vaccine specifically in certain regions of the world could be very, very important.
Thank you, Chris. We're very, very waiting to see the date of that to be a huge solution for an unmet medical need. Let's move to the next question, please. .
We'll go next to Mohit Bansal with Wells Fargo.
And one more on the VESPER program here. Would like to understand what kind of target profile you are looking at from the Phase III trial? I'm asking because with the GLP-1, you kind of see mid- to high teens kind of weight loss, there's an optimized GLP-1? And if you try to push it beyond that, you could probably start to run into tolerability issues. What makes you think that this longer acting GLP-1 could provide higher weight loss than that vis-a-vis better tolerability or do you think that monthly is probably the biggest differentiator here?
Chris?
Thank you very much. So it's both. We expect competitive weight loss and the data we show today, including with the predictions, but to expect from the 9.6 milligrams at 16 milligrams weight loss, we are predicted at week 28 is highly competitive, tolerable to be highly competitive and then, of course, monthly dosing, which will be highly differentiated. Just to point out, we are also planning a Phase III study which will evaluate switching. So patients already on weekly therapy doing well to switch those basins to monthly dosing.
Thank you, Chris. And this is not only ours, of course, weekly to monthly, but also any other GLP-1s that are in the market and they want to move after they achieve a weight loss into a maintenance with only 1 injection rather than with 4. Of course, there is also the oral solutions, but that's going for 1 weekly to 1 daily pill. Some will do it, but I think our research shows that most would like, if they are already used needle, and they would like to switch mostly to a more convenient needle, which is once a month. .
We'll go next to Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets. .
I just wanted to touch on your comments around investment in AI. How -- what are the metrics you're putting around that? And more broadly, I just want to ensure that this is going to drive a good return on your adjustment versus just kind of feeding into the hype?
It's a very good question, and let me start, but then I will last specific marketing achievements and R&D achievements through AI. In general, there are things in AI, but the technology is ready now. And those are deploying very, very fast. And certainly, I cannot do everything, but certainly can do more than what it is used right now to do. And that has to do with how successful you are in implementing it, embedding it into your organizational footprint, embedding it into your business processes and also creating AI literacy among the employees that eventually are using this with that clearly affects everything from enabling functions and maybe Dave can speak a little bit about the things that we are doing there.
I mean when I say enabling functions from finance, HR, legal, you name it. And of course, in R&D, where we have seen already significant productivity enhancements in marketing that it is helping us to maximize the ROI right now and in manufacturing were a very big part of the savings that were achieved successful deployment of AI use case that is called the [ Golden Bus ]. Chris, do you want to give some specific examples?
Yes. Thank you very much for the question. So as you pointed out, in R&D, we're embedding AI in each function, meaning in discovery, medical, regulatory, safety, pharmacovigilance, clinical trial execution, and we're recruiting and embedding AI engineers in each of those functions to work with the scientists and the clinicians how to measure success, productivity, productivity, speed and cost, to be bring costs down by embedding AI and obviously, accelerating speed.
What about in commercial?
Yes. Evan, I think metrics are at the heart of everything that we're doing with AI. I'll give you 2 very specific examples. One is our field force productivity. We're using AI to not only help train our field forces, but also help make their time with physicians maximize. So we invest more time with physicians rather than behind screens Second is on the marketing side, we measure ROI.
And you've seen us be very disciplined, as Dave alluded to, in our SI&A spend, particularly as we're trying to grow revenue for a lot of our launch and acquired brands, and AI has absolutely helped us increase our MROI by being much, much more targeted about where we invest.
Alexandre, you did fantastic things also in international with AI.
Yes, that's right. I mean every step of the way when we interact with our customer is subject to an improvement with AI. Let me give you an example, [indiscernible] planning for rep is actually done better when it is done with AI. The quality of the interaction is listened, so that we can rerun those interactions that we can improve the quality of the interaction. We can also do targeting better way so that we have advanced targeting, thanks to AI.
And finally, imagine that operating globally with very different regulatory requirements require every country to redo and reassess every promotional pieces. With AI, we can do that instantly in all those markets. We don't need to rerun all those activities at every country. So that has massive impact on productivity and speed to market.
And Dave, maybe...
Yes. Maybe just 2 points. From an enabling functions perspective, I think about AI in us leveraging our vendors because we have big vendor technology platforms across our enterprise. And as they make investments in their, we're taking advantage of those and embedding those within our process, which is increasing our productivity. And then secondly, think about our business model, we have routine transactions, but we have a large number of products that are across literally hundreds of markets. So AI is allowing us to use those data sets to essentially automate some of those transactions to make it very efficient that today, we deploy resources to be able to do that. So now the technology is enabling us to be a lot more productive.
Yes. So in closing, Evan, that's why we put it as one of the 4 imperatives strategic priorities we plan to do, which is to scale up because we have some big success. Many people are asking us, how is possible that Pfizer was able to take so much cost out of its operations without affecting the top line. And the answer is yes. We didn't just cut cost, what we did is we improved productivity. And the main lever, of course, there was simplification efforts that also took place. But the main lever was the successful deployment of AI, where basically we are reducing the cost without that being seen in the activity. So very excited about the prospects of AI.
Next question, please.
Our next question comes from Dave Risinger with Leerink Partners. .
Yes. And thanks for all the updates. So my question is for Chris. Chris, could you talk a little bit more about MET'233i, which I believe is now numbered '3945 Specifically, the bias of amylin relative to calcitonin, the implications for the efficacy and tolerability profile and the data we should expect at ADA?
Thank you very much for the question. So this is an ultra long-acting amylin, which was previously shown to have a monotherapy efficacy of 8.4% placebo-adjusted weight loss at day 36. It's a [ deal ] molecule, so it's not biased to the one. It's placebo-like tolerability was previously shown with the monotherapy. And that gave confidence for the -- starting the combination of '3944 and '3945. previously, early data shown a day 8, 5% weight loss, but obviously, that's very early. So we will update those data later this year. This is an important combination for us because we believe with this combination, we can have best-in-class efficacy with a monthly dosing, which will be highly differentiated for this combination.
Thank you, Chris. And now it's time for the last question. .
Our final question comes from Louise Chen with Scotiabank. .
I wanted to ask you first, it's been a couple of years since you completed the acquisition of Seagen. And I'm just curious how that integration has gone? And then how is that deal really increase your leadership in oncology? And then just a second quick question on your PD-1 [indiscernible]. It's becoming a more crowded market. So just curious where you expect to stand out with respect to your pipeline. I mean there's some indications that are coming before you, but is there anything special that you would like to call out.
Thank you, Louise. And clearly Seagen has been integrated on research, commercial, manufacturing and multiple other levels. But given that Chris was the leader that drove the integration during the first sensitive year, Chris, maybe you want to make a comment on how the integration of Seagen and continue doing.
Thank you very much for the question. So firstly, we have a vibrant community of scientists and clinicians in Seattle. I believe we're one of the biggest employers for -- in the biotech or biopharma industry in that region. Most of the colleagues actually remained at Pfizer, which is just a testament of our culture and the success of the integration.
A number of programs have started and being accelerated, including, as you've seen, the readout with 303 and 304 for Padcev. We are planning an additional Phase III study for Padcev. It will start later this year. It's an important study for us and for patients because that is to -- study to potentially replace cystectomy, which, as you know, leads to significant morbidity and mortality. We also accelerated a number of other programs into Phase III, including SV with 2 Phase III studies ongoing in additional Phase III study that's going to start PD-L1, another Phase III program ongoing in non-small cell lung cancer and a number of Phase I ADCs that's differentiated, including using the integrin antigen as a marker with new payloads, including TOPO 2 and new [ orastatin ] based payload. So integration, overall of Seagen going very, very well.
Regarding '4404, it is a differentiated molecule. What we've seen in the preclinical data was a 100-fold increase for the affinity for PD-1 in the presence of VGEF and binding to all isoforms or in VGEF. It's a preclinical data highly encouraging overall encouraged by the field now. As you know, we've recently seen from China first line non-small cell lung data that was positive. The data we've seen with a combination of 4404 with chemotherapy are highly encouraging.
And as we accelerate the program, as you've seen in we started Phase III programs already for colorectal cancer. And earlier this year, we'll also start with first-line Phase III with non-small cell lung cancer and then endometrial cancer and bladder cancer, including combinations with our ADC portfolio.
Thank you, Chris. Very exciting. So thank you very much, everyone. Clearly, I'm very proud of what we achieved in 2025 in multiple horizons. The last piece of the puzzle was revealed today with the fourth quarter results, which were stellar. We beat with a significant margin, revenues and earnings in the phase of the lowest-ever COVID season that generated the lowest ever revenues because of the way that this strain was mild.
Now we are already in 2026. And this is a pivotal year because it marks the first year of an LOE cycle, but already started this year. And we've been preparing for that for many years with the acquisitions we have done strategic and licensing agreements, while also it was sharpening our focus on the most impactful internal programs. Our U.S. and international commercial organizations have refined models to strengthen leadership with key product portfolios, streamlining and financial discipline are, of course, ongoing priorities. We will continue strategic investment in future growth and value creation for our shareholders, including by maintaining and over the long term, growing our dividend.
Our 2026 strategic agenda is clear, and I'm confident in the progress we will achieve. Thank you for your interest in Pfizer, and we look forward to continuing to share our progress with you in the year ahead. Thank you.
This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.
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Pfizer — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Pfizer — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz (FY): $62,6 Mrd. für 2025 (−2% operativ vs. Vorjahr; +6% operativ exklusive COVID‑19-Produkte).
- Umsatz (Q4): $17,6 Mrd. (−3% operativ); Nicht‑COVID‑Portfolio wuchs +9% operativ.
- Adjusted EPS: $3,22 für 2025 (adjusted diluted EPS); Q4 adjusted $0,66, GAAP diluted LPS −$0,29.
- Margen: Adjusted Gross Margin FY 76%; Q4 rund 71% (Produktmix, geringere Commodity‑Verkäufe).
- Cash & Einmaliges: $9,8 Mrd. Dividendenrückfluss; Q4: ca. $4,4 Mrd. nicht‑cash Impairments.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Obesity‑Fokus: '3944 (Metsera) zeigte in VESPER‑3 placebo‑adjusted Gewichtsverluste ~10–12,3% für die Phase‑III‑Dosen; Monthly‑Format als Differenzierer; Kombinationsprogramme (Amylin, GIPR) geplant.
- Onkologie & BD: Seagen, Biohaven, 3SBio stärken das Portfolio; mehrere wichtige Zulassungen/Readouts erwartet (Padcev, SV, '4404) zur Stärkung der mittelfristigen Pipeline.
- Produktivität & AI: Reinvestition von R&D‑Sparungen; Skalierung von KI über R&D, Produktion und Commercial (ausgebaut auf >1.200 GPUs) zur Beschleunigung und Kostenreduktion.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- 2026 Guidance: Umsatz $59,5–62,5 Mrd.; adjusted diluted EPS $2,80–3,00.
- COVID‑Ausblick: COVID‑Produkte ~ $5 Mrd. in 2026 (weiter rückläufig).
- LOE‑Erwartung: Gegenwärtige Planung berücksichtigt vorstehende Patentverluste (LOE — Loss of Exclusivity); am Midpoint ex COVID & LOE ~ +4% operativ.
- Kostenziele: Ziel $7,2 Mrd. Nettoeinsparungen bis Ende 2026; zusätzliche Fertigungssavings Phase‑1: $700M in '26 und $200M in '27.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- VESPER‑3 Tolerabilität: Nachfrage zu Raten von Übelkeit/Vomitus und Abbrüchen; Management: wenige schwere GI‑Ereignisse, komplette Safety‑Daten werden bei ADA präsentiert.
- Kommerzielle Einordnung: Diskussion Monthly vs. Weekly (Wettbewerb zu wöchentlichen GLP‑1); Management setzt auf Persistenz, niedrigere Medikamentenlast und Out‑of‑Pocket‑Märkte ex‑US.
- Portfolio‑Risiken: Fragen zu Vyndaqel‑Patent (angenommener Verlust Ende 2028) und Q4‑Impairments; Management nennt Impairments als Portfolio‑Repriorisierung und betont Fortschritt in Seagen‑Assets.
⚡ Bottom Line
Pfizer hat 2025 operativ solide geliefert und adjusted EPS/Umsatz übertroffen, bestätigt aber zugleich die 2026‑Guidance. Kurzfristig belasten COVID‑Rückgang, LOE‑Risiken und Q4‑Impairments; mittelfristig sollen Metsera‑Programme, Onkologie‑Assets, KI‑gestützte Produktivitätsgewinne und getätigte M&A‑Transaktionen Wachstum gegen Ende des Jahrzehnts stützen. Für Aktionäre: stabiler Cash‑Flow und Dividende bei gezielten Wachstumsinvestitionen.
Pfizer — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everybody. I'm Chris Schott from JPMorgan, and it's my pleasure to be hosting this fireside chat with Albert Bourla, Chairman and CEO of Pfizer. Albert, Happy New Year. Great to be speaking with you again today. I know you want to make some opening remarks, then we'll jump into the discussion from there. So over to you.
Of course. If you can advance the slide, I wanted to say, first of all, that 2025 was for Pfizer, a good year. We had a good financial performance. We have three consecutive earnings that we beat both revenues and profitability. And we were able to improve margins by taking out $5.6 billion of OpEx between '24 and '25. Now I don't know many companies that they can do $5.6 billion of cost in '24 and '25 and have four in '24 and three in '25 consecutive quarters that you are beating expectations. I think that's a testament to the company is good when it comes to execution.
The other thing that was very good in '25 was that we were able to resolve certain uncertainties that were depressing our multiples. The first one was tariffs, MFN, I think that's for the entire industry. I think it is pretty much behind us. Of course, we need to be alert that things can change, but I think that has been settled. The second one that was specific for Pfizer was the COVID and the impact that, that can have in our profitability. What if you have a significant reduction of COVID, is it going to kill your EPS? We did have a significant reduction in COVID. And I will remind you, '24, we had $11 billion approximately COVID revenues, and we gave guidance that will be around $6.5 billion this year. So a significant decline. It was a very small, slow COVID year, year 2025. And despite that, we were able to exceed expectations and raise on EPS, which shows that you have been able by doing other things, growing other parts of the business and taking out cost, make the COVID less relevant for our business, almost now irrelevant.
And the third uncertainty was that after we didn't do well with our oral GLP-1s, everybody was wondering, so what is Pfizer's strategy in obesity? Where are you? And I think the acquisition of Metsera and then following that, our oral GLP-1 from a Chinese company, they have positioned us now into a very competitive position to do the year. But all of that was, of course, in '25. Now if there is anything that I want this room to keep from '25 is this company knows how to execute. Let's go now to '26. And it is custom that every time I'm here with you every year, I present what will be the focus of the year for Pfizer. And these are the four priorities that we are going to do.
Of course, maximize the value of key transactions. When I speak about key transactions, there were three that account for 80% of all the investments that we did. This is Seagen, this is Biohaven with Nurtec and this is Metsera. We are going to make sure that the in line products will grow way much faster and that their pipelines will accelerate their development. Of course, the second is deliver on critical R&D milestones. I will show in a moment that this year is going to be very rich in catalysts for Pfizer, and I will go through each one of them. We need to make sure that we deliver on them.
Of course, we invest to maximize post-'28 growth. We have entered the LOE period, '26, '27 and '28 is for Pfizer, the LOE period. And we want to make sure that as we go out of that period, we have industry-leading growth on the top line. And last but not least, it is to scale AI across our business. AI was a significant contributor in our ability to take out $5.6 billion of cost plus even more in manufacturing if you count. And now I think we are ready to scale it up to levels across the entire organization.
And I would like to finish with a slide that speaks about the anticipated catalysts. On regulatory decisions, I will just point out the Padcev. There are two approvals that we expect. One already was granted months ahead of schedule because of the strength of the data. And the other one, the 304 will be granted hopefully this year. The reason why I mentioned it is because it's more than doubling the addressable population of Padcev. Right now, the current indications are for approximately 19,000 patients. With the new one, we are adding other 22,000. So it's significant.
Now in terms of data readouts, Elrexfio, the second Phase III study that is a serious now population is coming up, hopefully in the first half. LITFULO, it is a new indication for vitiligo. Again, it is atopic dermatitis. If we get it, we will be able to compete in the vitiligo. Lyme disease. Everybody is expecting this vaccine. It is a disease that it's important gets more and more significant and a disease that there is no vaccine so far to prevent it. So we cross our fingers that the results will be good.
The mevrometostat, this is the follow-on basically on XTANDI. This is a study that we will read out. It is in combination with XTANDI, and we try to show better results than XTANDI alone. It's very important because XTANDI next year will be off patent. And we want to be able to promote in this area, new solutions because we have a very capable field force. And there are two products that they can do that. The one it is this one and the other one, it is TALZENNA, talazoparib, that again, it is in combination with XTANDI. The fact that XTANDI goes off patent makes quite easy the access of these products because the cost is less.
I think the most important of all, SV. SV, it is our Seagen entry to the lung cancer basically an ADC. We have studies running right now. The one that we expect readout this year, it is the second line in monotherapy. And we have also for next year, a first-line lung cancer in combination with KEYTRUDA. And last but not least, everybody is expecting what happens with Metsera portfolio and when are we going to show data. There are two significant data readouts of Metsera. The first one is the results of the monthly program. Right now, we expect to be able to release data from the monthly program this year. We -- I remind you what the study is about. It is weekly step up the dose for 4 months, and then you start the patients in a monthly. And when we release the data, we -- all patients, we hope that we will have data for all of them at least 4 months in a monthly, so 8 months trial, and some will be at 6 months. So it's an important. And also, that also will dictate our Phase III study and program.
The other one, it is about the ultra-long-acting amylin and GLP-1. We have already presented -- Metsera presented already data from the amylin monotherapy weekly. The data was stellar. They had 8.4% placebo-adjusted weight loss at 36 days with Amylin. 36 days, 8.4% reduction on placebo adjusted and very good tolerability with amylin because we know that the Achilles heel of the GLP-1s is the tolerability. Now what we are going to see are data in combination with the GLP-1 that I'm very excited about them. So these are on the readouts. But of course, it's a year that we are investing. So we anticipate this year to initiate 20-plus pivotal Phase III studies.
I'll start with the Metsera, the ultra-long-acting GLP-1. We expect to initiate 10 Phase III studies this year. 10 Phase III studies this year. One actually was initiated the last week of December, the 1 of the 10. And I think that also is very impressive. Just 4, 5 weeks after the closing of a very controversial acquisition, we were able to do such a good work in integrating and working with the Metsera team that we were able to launch their Phase III ahead of their initial expectations that was for basically the first quarter of this year. So I'm very excited about that.
Equally, for the other acquisitions that we have done, the VEGF, we are expecting to start four Phase III studies, one in colorectal, one in endometrial, one in lung cancer, and the last one will be in bladder cancer, but in combination with Padcev. So it is the first one that we test this molecule together with an ADC, and we are very excited about it. Nurtec, we expect to start two studies. I will speak about one, but I think it's quite important. It is use of Nurtec for chronic migraine. Chronic migraine, it is defined as at least 15 migraine episodes in the month. And for those people who will start the regimen that there will be daily dosing of Nurtec so that they will prevent those episodes.
LITFULO and Hympavzi, we go to moderate hemophilia and alopecia areata. Padcev, very important study, that one for Padcev that we're initiating. As you know, Padcev had stellar results, double survival rate in multiple settings. But the muscle invasive bladder cancer, usually, most of the patients, they really need to have a cystectomy. That's a horrible operation and that creates horrible quality of life. So for the first time now, we'll try to see if in these patients, we can spare the cystectomy by using Padcev. Imagine if that's positive as all the previous studies of Padcev, how that will change the lives of these patients.
PCV25, we expect to start a Phase III this year. And in SV, we have already two studies that are running. One will have readout this year, the other next year and we start a third one for all comers. Very exciting. So I don't want to hear again, there are no catalysts for Pfizer stock because sometimes you say it, all right? And I hope that we'll have all a good year.
Yes, absolutely. Maybe start the conversation, and you laid this out nicely. Pfizer has been through a period of significant change in the last few years. As you mentioned, the portfolio has evolved beyond COVID. We've had a pipeline that's maturing as you just laid out. We've got a new commercial structure. Your confidence today that you've got the portfolio and the pipeline to manage through this patent cycle and then to kind of exit the patent cycle with a healthy growth rate. Can you just talk about where that stands today versus a year or 2 ago?
I'm highly, highly confident on that. And it is, first of all, because we are preparing for it for many years. As I said, we invested $80 billion cumulative in acquiring growth basically. And three of them, it is the three that we are putting a lot of emphasis. You need to know that in '25, the new business development -- new introductions, business development or new launches probably will end up because we are going to give our final results in a month at the zip code of $10 billion, $10 billion acquisition with a double-digit growth. In '26, we expect to continue having double-digit growth of this portfolio and the years to come. So that, as it's going up, is offsetting basically the LOEs. Now fully, probably not. But for example, this year, it is the first year that we have $1.5 billion of LOEs. Our growth from these products will more than offset the LOEs because if you see the guidance that we gave, $62 billion approximately '25 and $61 the midpoint of '26, that includes $1.5 billion of COVID reduction, right? $11 billion in '24, $6.5 billion in '25, and we took stance to derisk the COVID projections by putting $5 billion this year. It could be even worse COVID or even better COVID period from a health perspective, which means we can do less. But if it is like '25, we can do $1.5 billion more. If it is like the previous years, the upside is very significant. But excluding COVID, LOE or not LOE, doesn't matter. The business is growing in '26. In '27, we have a bigger challenge to face because it is not $1.5 billion, it's $4.5 billion. But I still think that with the growth of this portfolio, we will have set big time. And in '28 probably will be the year that we will have a modest decline. And then we will enter into a leading industry growth.
Yes. Perfect. Maybe just digging into those topics a little bit more. We're fresh off the '26 guidance call. Can you just elaborate a little bit more on how you approached expectation setting just given the uncertainty around COVID balanced against this, obviously, very healthy growth portfolio you're talking about?
COVID is the one that is the most challenging for us to predict. And that's why we took the stance that we are going to derisk it. We reduced projections by $1.5 billion. It is really a derisking exercise. It's not that we calculated anything from the $6.5 billion that we will make to $5 billion. So with that aspect that we think is derisked, although you never know. And hopefully, we could have an upside. But again, you never know. On the remaining of the business, we are much more confident in our ability to predict it. And we stand by what we said and hopefully, we can deliver more.
Maybe a similar question. Looking past '26, we obviously have some of these well-telegraphed LOEs. What do I think about for that top and bottom line growth profile as we look out to '27, '28 as you're still kind of in this transition period?
Yes. All our effort in '26, '27, '28, it is to maintain as much the revenues to a reasonable level, so not to go down more than 3%, 4% in '28 and even less in the other years. But there will be a modest decline probably in '26, '27, '28. We went through all the measures that we have taken to improve our margins to at least come to a floor EPS that will help us go through that period. Following '28, '29, '30, '31 and '32, we calculate our projections are for industry-leading exponential growth in the revenues.
And can you elaborate a little bit more in terms of what you have to assume within the portfolio to get to that reacceleration? And maybe as part of that, what would you highlight in terms of the bigger disconnects of when you look at your forecast versus what the Street is kind of expecting in that return to growth period?
Yes. I take out COVID because already we derisked it. But I think that Nurtec, I don't think that the Street is incorporating new indications that are coming for Nurtec. There is one Phase III study that is already running and will read out, I think, next year. And that's for menstrual migraines. And that's a significant part of the business, and I believe we will be the first. And the second one is the one that I just spoke that we are going to initiate for chronic, so daily treatment so that chronic -- prevention of chronic migraine. So that's -- Nurtec is one. SV, there is a very big disconnect with what we think that could be and what the Street now is forecasting. Probably the Street without seeing Phase III data, they don't put much. So the catalyst is this year, the first one. And the second one is next year. So that's a significant, I think, gap also. And I will mention another one, Elrexfio. And Elrexfio for multiple myeloma, we have much higher expectations, and those are driven by the Phase III studies that are running that are constantly increasing the population that it is addressable. I will finish that the Street hasn't factored at all probably or very little, still the Metsera portfolio and haven't factored it also the VEGF. So it's quite significant.
Yes. Maybe digging into Metsera. Obviously, you made a big push into the space with the deal late last year. Can you just maybe to start the conversation, frame your high-level views of how you see the obesity market kind of broadly speaking, playing out over the next few years? And what's going to take for Pfizer to be competitive in that landscape?
Yes. I think the market will grow very fast. I believe it will be $150 billion by year 2030. Right now is duopoly with one of the players scoring higher wins, more wins than the other. But there is a lot of others that are entering. Compared to when we did the business case of Metsera, there were two things that changed in my -- in our estimations. One, it is we saw some more data, which some of them you will see, and we are very, very confident. The second is that we saw Lilly and Novo sales, and we saw how big is the cash market for this indication, which in our projections, we didn't have that. We had a very small cash market, which means that outside the U.S. very little business and inside the U.S. part of the business. Now we know it's 30%, right? It's huge. It's like Viagra. That's exactly the same characteristics. When we launched Viagra, we were surprised how it was the first medicine that people were willing to pay out of pocket to get the medicine, irrelevant if it was covered or not by the system. So the same is with that. Metsera is giving us highly differentiated portfolio. The portfolio of long-acting, I think but you will see the data could make huge difference. The amylin and GLP-1 long-acting again, ultra-long-acting, monthly, right, not weekly, ultra-long acting. Both of them, I think they can -- our projections is with the base of the data that we have seen, that it could be best-in-class that we will have best-in-class tolerability profile and best-in-class placebo-adjusted weight loss. Very early, but this is where the data are pointing us when we try to model them. And it's not only right that, right? So Metsera has also an oral portfolio, amylin and GLP-1 and GIPR as a peptide. And all of that are in the clinic right now. And also, I'm very excited about these combinations, amylin, GLP-1 and GIPR, what we can do in terms of reducing tolerability, improving weight loss. Of course, we have also our own GIPR, which is an oral molecule. Metsera is a peptide. The oral, small molecule, the reason why we bought GLP-1 oral from Chinese to be able to try and combine it. So market will be big. You need differentiated products. You need significant marketing capabilities because that's a consumer-driven market. It's not to a bigger extent than anything else. It's not the payers that will define it, plays to the strengths of Pfizer. Metsera portfolio is excellent, highly differentiated, but the commercial capabilities of Pfizer, I think, is what can make a difference vis-a-vis the leader in this industry, which is Lilly and is a wonderful company.
Yes. On [ Phase III ], I know that's later this year, just your level of confidence that these assets you acquired, the monthly dosing is going to be attractive profile. I mean, just elaborate a little bit more on what you been...
You never know with when the box opens and -- but we are very confident. And this is why we plan to initiate the Phase III, and we will present the Phase II data on the monthly and probably in a big conference as usual. But I'm very confident. I'm also very -- I have seen some data on the amylin and GLP-1 combination. I can't speak about them right now because we are accumulating more patients and more time, but they are very encouraging. Very encouraging.
Okay. Good to hear. Maybe last question is time lines for these assets.
I hope to launch in '28. And if anything, we'll try to be at the earlier rather than at the later of '28. And there we go -- and we hope that based on our commercial muscle, we will not have a traditional ramp-up as we launch, but we have a much more steep hockey stick ramp-up to the maximum market share that we will achieve.
Yes. And then maybe just last question on this. Amylin, sounds like you're very excited about that combo. Is there anything that Pfizer can do to further accelerate development time lines given...
Yes. And as I said, Pfizer already, we initiated the Phase III this year, Seagen's plans were for next year -- I mean '25, Metsera's plans were for 2026. And I think that's the combination of the Metsera people and Pfizer people that they are working right now immediately like if they were together for the last 10 years. Actually, a lot of them were ex Pfizer people. So that helped.
They have been working together. Maybe just moving beyond obesity. You mentioned SV and that kind of interesting asset coming from Seagen. Can you just speak to the overall opportunity you see for that one? And what gives you confidence in that mechanism based on the data we've seen so far? So because you highlight, it's one that has very significant peak sales potential. I think the Street still is not giving you a ton of credit for it. So maybe just help level set your level of conviction in that profile.
I mean the level of conviction comes from the Phase II data that we have seen and we have presented, and they are very, very good. I'm sure you have seen them, right? So right now, we have two studies running in both in non-small cell lung cancer. And one that we will have readouts now, it is monotherapy in second line. And the one that will come next year is first line in combination with KEYTRUDA. This is a $60 billion lung cancer market, right? It's a huge market. And so far, if we were able with the SV, which has the same payload like Padcev reproduce the synergistic effects together with PD-L1, the synergistic effect of this payload, which is the vedotin in lung cancer, that will be a significant blockbuster. Now the whole thing is blinded. We have done everything we could to make sure that the study will be successful. And we have very good Phase II data. We need to see the Phase III.
And to the extent the second-line data is positive, how direct of a read would you view that as we think about the first-line study reporting out in '27?
I think will increase our confidence in the first line, but the first line will read out anyway. So we'll see.
Soon enough. Staying on oncology, your VEGF PD-1 bispecific. I think we're all trying to get our hands around it, very exciting market, how the individual companies are going to differentiate from one another? So when you think about the asset you selected, how you're developing it, how do you think about differentiating from the others who are kind of going after the same target?
First of all, we believe that our molecule is differentiated because it has two arms with both VEGF and PD-L1, unlike the other antibodies that they have one arm with PD-L1, one with VEGF. So by itself, we think that's why we saw better encouraging noncomparable, of course, results. But we do think that the molecule is differentiated. But beyond the molecule, what it is extremely important, it is the development program that you will do and also what will be the combinations that you will try to bring into the market. I think the development, we start very aggressively because we really believe in this molecule with four Phase III studies now. And one of them is testing the hypothesis with Padcev, right? We have seen that Padcev created tremendous results with KEYTRUDA, double survival rate. It's not a trivial thing, double the survival rate. We believe that PD-L1/VEGF, they work better than PD-1s. So if we can repeat now that, we can have transformational results. So again, the studies are running. The assets are good. Our ability to execute is very good, and we will see.
Yes, yes, absolutely. Maybe last one on the oncology portfolio, breast cancer. You've got a number of assets you've been working on there. What's the latest in terms of what you're most excited about and the time lines of when we can expect those assets?
Clearly, our CDK4, it is the one that excites me the most. It is a huge opportunity for a mega blockbuster, right? We are testing the CDK4 right now in metastatic breast cancer against the standard of care basically in combination with aromatase inhibitors. So we have Ibrance or the Lilly or the Novartis product. And again -- together with aromatase inhibitor against our CDK4. We have seen data on the earlier phases that makes us believe that we will have way better results. The reasons are because CDK4 is very selective to the breast cancer cells and less on the bone marrow cells, which is the CDK6 mostly that creates all the side effects. As a result, this product can be dosed constantly. I remind you that Ibrance is dosed 3 weeks and then there is 1 week of treatment holiday, a break, exactly because you need to deal with the toxicity. That molecule is constant. That by itself will improve the efficacy. But also the fact that it has such a good tolerability and very favorable side effects profile is the big opportunities to position it in earlier phases. That imagine early breast cancer is a huge opportunity, particularly for women that they are doing the surgery. And 30% of them approximately will metastasize, but 70% will not. So -- but the 30% is very tough. If they metastasize is a very big problem. It's life-threatening. And people -- physicians would like to have something that if proven that they can reduce this 30%. But it's very challenging to give something that has neutropenia for 5 years, if you create that side effects will be even more detrimental sometimes for the health of the individual rather than preventing the 30% chances. That one has an ideal profile. So I think it's very good. That's why we take it in first line. And we have the KAT6 that is going to be in second and third line. So we have a very good life cycle to replace Ibrance that will go off patent in '27.
Yes. And just latest on time lines that we can think about for those two assets?
CDK4, I think we expect the readout next year. Yes, next year.
Okay. Perfect. Padcev, I think you mentioned obviously, a big expansion of the market you're going after. How far along, I guess, in the growth cycle are we with this asset from what we've seen? So how do we think about the next few years of...
Next few years, we think that will grow. That will grow. First of all, we have, I'd say, very good penetration right now, but still, there is a lot of room to increase the use of Padcev versus other treatments. It is impressive clinical data that is driving that. It's our job to make sure that even community oncologists, they realize the benefit and start using it. So that's one wave. But then there are the new indications. And I think those also could play, particularly the two indications that one was approved and the other will be approved, as I said, more than doubling the population that can be used. So that will be a significant driver of growth. And then we are going into the cystectomy -- so bladder sparing experiment that if it is positive, again, will be a significant advancement.
A couple of different legs up for those numbers from here. Maybe last one on the in-line portfolio. Tafamidis franchise, I know we've got some increased competition. Just how should we think about that in the U.S. the next few years? Is that still a growth franchise? Or is that more kind of maintaining the business being more of...
I would say growth in international. In the U.S., I would say, stability or modest growth as competition is coming. Still, the market is growing. So we are -- of course, they are taking some of the market share, but we will continue that. And it is only until '28, right? '28 is going off patent. But overall, I think we will have a growth of the tafamidis, mostly in the international and less so in the U.S. this year.
Okay. Maybe just a couple of questions on MFN. So obviously...
By the way, I have the international and U.S. heads of Pfizer sitting here. They are taking notes of our expectations.
MFN, I know policy risk was a big discussion point for the sector last year. And I think the deal you struck in September, I think, really lifted that overhang for the sector. Just where we sit today, can you talk a little bit about what went into that deal and Pfizer's ability kind of to manage through these new kind of agreements?
Yes. I think there will be an impact that is already incorporated in our projections. We gave 2.8 to 3, right, as EPS. That includes that. That includes the reduction in COVID. That includes the LOE, and that includes $0.22 of investments in Metsera and 3SBio, the VEGF that were not last year, right? So all of that are there. And still, we will deliver 2.8 to 3 and even better.
When I think about MFN world where some of your newer launches, there's going to be more globally flat prices in major markets. I'm just trying to get my hands around what does that mean for international sales? Is that neutral? Is it positive? Is it negative? Is it too early to tell as you think about?
I believe we'll be positive. But of course, it's a bold move, right? One -- why I say that? First of all, it is 8 countries outside the U.S. that are affected by MFN. The other 100 countries is business as usual, and we are launching our products and we continue doing the business. In those 8 countries, which are the high-income countries, already one of them, which is U.K., we saw that they already signed a deal with the U.S. government that they will increase significantly the spend in innovative medicines. I will tell you that they are reducing their clawback from something like 22% to 15%. So it's a significant reduction. Then they commit that they will -- right now, they spend 0.28% of GDP in innovative medicine, 0.28%. They committed that they will raise that to 0.6% in a decade, which is double. But even more importantly, they will raise that to 0.32% next year. So you see the first country already are adjusting for the entire portfolio. Now when it comes to new product pricing, which is really what is affected here, they increased the -- usually, they calculate prices based on the quality, what is the value of the quality. They increased significantly 25%, the value of the quality, so which should resonate to 25% higher valuations of the prices. I'm in constant discussions with the leaders of France, Germany, you name it. And they all understand that, first of all, this is a sector that is very strategic and Europe missed the train, and they now need to come back because it's all about China and the U.S. And the second, they understand that with a new system, unless if they pay, they won't see the products launched in their countries. The whole Europe will have it except the 6 countries that are in MFN. I don't think that can be achievable. So I think we will see better price.
Great. And maybe last minute or so here. BD, obviously, you've done a lot in the pipeline. Can you talk about what are the priorities for you at this point as we think about capital deployment for the next year or 2?
Capital deployment, dividend, we are committed to maintain the dividend, right? Right now, we never say no to buybacks, but it's not in our plan to do buybacks. In terms of investments, its R&D investments are going to go higher this year and will continue going higher. And so -- and also, we will invest this year and the years to come quite a bit in the new launches and the business development. So those assets that I said they are already $10 billion, growing double digit will accelerate their growth. So this is how we see business. And then, of course, business development. We have right now with all of that included, a firepower that we can use. We said that it is around $6 billion for this year. And maybe we use it, maybe not, if we find the right opportunity. But there are opportunities right now, and I think we can use it.
Excellent. Well, I think we're out of time. Thank you so much for the comments. Appreciate it.
Thank you very much.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
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Pfizer — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
Pfizer — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: CEO Bourla betont Execution: 2025 mit drei aufeinanderfolgenden Ergebnis‑Beats, $5,6 Mrd. OpEx‑Einsparung und De‑Risking von COVID. 2026‑Prioritäten: Wertmaximierung der Akquisitionen (Seagen, Biohaven, Metsera), wichtige R&D‑Katalysatoren, Aufbau post‑'28 Wachstum und Skalierung von KI.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Akquisitionen: Fokus auf drei Transaktionen, die ~80% der Investments ausmachen; Ziel: beschleunigtes Wachstum und Pipeline‑Beschleunigung der übernommenen Assets.
- Obesity: Metsera‑Portfolio (monatlich, ultra‑langwirksam; Amylin+GLP‑1) soll differenzierte Verträglichkeit und starke placebo‑adjusted Gewichtsverluste liefern; 10 Phase‑III‑Studien geplant.
- Onkologie: SV (Seagen‑ADC) mit 2L‑Lungen‑Readout 2026 und First‑Line‑Kombi mit Pembrolizumab 2027; Padcev‑Indikationserweiterung könnte adressierbare Patientenzahl mehr als verdoppeln.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Katalysatoren: >20 geplante pivotal Phase‑III‑Starts 2026 (u.a. 10 für Metsera), erste Metsera‑Phase‑III bereits initiiert; Padcev‑Erweiterung fügt ~22.000 Patienten hinzu.
- Guidance‑Kontext: 2026‑Midpoint ≈ $61 Mrd. beinhaltet $1,5 Mrd. COVID‑Derisking; LOE‑Belastungen: ≈$1,5 Mrd. in '26, ≈$4,5 Mrd. in '27.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Post‑LOE: Analysten fragten nach der Plausibilität der Re‑Beschleunigung; Management sieht moderaten Rückgang bis '28, danach starkes Rebound‑Wachstum.
- Metsera‑Timing: Nachfrage nach Start‑/Readout‑Timelines und Kommerz‑Rampen; Bourla zielt auf Launch 2028 und schnellere Marktdurchdringung dank Pfizer‑Vertrieb.
- Bewertung & Policy: MFN/Preispolitik und internationale Preisgestaltung wurden diskutiert; Bourla erwartet neutral‑bis‑positive Effekte in Kernmärkten.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Starke Ausrichtung auf 2026: viele klinische Katalysatoren und aggressive Phase‑III‑Pläne reduzieren Abhängigkeit von COVID. Kurzfristig bleiben LOE‑Risiken und Phase‑III‑Readouts entscheidend; langfristig könnte das M&A‑ und R&D‑Portfolio die Wachstumsprognosen übertreffen.
Pfizer — Pfizer Inc., 2026 Guidance/Update Call, Dec 16, 2025
1. Management Discussion
A good day, everyone, and welcome to Pfizer's analyst and investor call to review the full year 2026 financial guidance. Today's call is being recorded. At this time I would like to turn the call over to Francesca DeMartino, chief investor relations officer and senior vice president. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Good morning, and welcome to Pfizer's 2026 financial guidance call. I'm Francesca DeMartino, chief investor relations officer. On behalf of the Pfizer team, thank you for joining us. This call is being made available via audio webcast at Pfizer.com. Earlier this morning we released our 2026 financial guidance via a press release that is available at our website, Pfizer.com. I'm doing today by Dr. Albert Bourla, our Chairman and CEO, and Dave Denton, our CEO. Albert and Dave have prepared remarks and then we'll open the call for questions. Before you get started I want to remind you that we'll be making forward-looking statements and discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. I encourage you to read the disclaimers in our slide presentation, the press release we issued this morning, and the disclosures in our SEC filings which are all available on Pfizer.com. Forward-looking statements on the call are subject to substantial risks and uncertainty, speak only as of the call's original date, and they undertake no obligation to update or revise any of the statements. With that I will turn the call over to Albert.
Thank you, Francesca. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. Happy holidays to all. 2025 has been an important year for Pfizer with disciplined execution, focused performance and notable strategic milestones that have strengthened our company for future growth and impact.
Today, we are reaffirming full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS guidance and revising full-year 2025 revenue guidance to approximately $62 billion, which is within the previous revenue guidance range.
In a moment, Dave will provide additional perspective and walk through our 2026 guidance. In addition to delivering our financial performance this year we are very proud because we also resolved significant uncertainties facing our business.
First, with our landmark voluntary agreement with the U.S. government, we now have greater clarity on 2 critical fronts: Pricing in the U.S. and tariffs. We addressed the call for lowering prescription drug costs and aligning prices with those in other developed countries. With our commitment to further invest in manufacturing in the U.S., we also have a 3-year grace period from certain U.S. tariffs. Second, we exceeded adjusted diluted EPS expectations through the third quarter despite lower COVID-19 revenues. With the underlying strength of our business, we've had the agility to take other actions offsetting the impact of lower infection rates on our COVID-19 portfolio, which makes COVID business, not as -- Pfizer's business not as dependent on COVID anymore.
And third, we established a strategy that we believe will position Pfizer as a significant leader in the next generation of therapies for chronic weight management. Following the recent closing of our Metsera acquisition, our new exclusive global collaboration and license agreement with YaoPharma and other Pfizer programs that include our GIPR antagonist candidate. We have a robust and diverse obesity portfolio. It includes highly differentiated incretin and amylin injectables in the clinic and a wealth of next-generation oral and injectable early clinical and preclinical molecules. We plan to move quickly in 2026 to advance about 15 programs with many of them being Phase III studies just for this product.
With Pfizer's proven scientific commercial and manufacturing capabilities, we believe we are in a strong position to help address substantial unmet patient need in obesity and many adjacent cardiometabolic conditions.
Now I will review additional 2025 highlights but also reinforce why we are confident in our ability to drive progress in the year ahead. We successfully executed on each of the key strategic priorities guiding Pfizer in 2025. Refocusing our R&D engine on the most impactful opportunity, this was a key objective. I'm pleased with a very successful year of execution and high-quality results as we both advance high-priority internal programs and completed strategic deals, we believe will be transformative for Pfizer.
We started 2025 organizing our R&D team and pipeline, focused to prioritize opportunities where Pfizer is in the strongest position to address significant patient need in high-growth therapeutic areas. We made good disciplined progress with our late-stage R&D pipeline this year and so far have delivered 7 positive Phase III readouts and 9 key pivotal program starts. Oncology is a source of strength and our continued progress in 2025 was illustrated by a series of potential practice-changing data readouts, approvals and multiple Phase III study starts. Recently, for example, the FDA approved Padcev in combination with pembrolizumab for patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer who are ineligible for cisplatin-containing chemotherapy. With this approval, which was received months earlier than anticipated, Padcev with pembrolizumab is the first and only ADC and PD-1 inhibitor regimen for this patient population and the potential new standard of care.
This supports our efforts to substantially expand the benefits of Padcev, adding approximately 7,500 addressable U.S. patients to the previous U.S. addressable population of about 19,000 with locally advanced or metastatic urothelial cancer. We are also expecting a near-term readout of the EV-304 study of Padcev plus pembrolizumab in patients with cis-eligible this time muscle invasion bladder cancer. Clinical trial success and regulatory approval in this population would extend the reach of Padcev to approximately 15,000 additional patients in the U.S.
We also recently served our robust plan to develop PF-4404. This is our in-licensed PD-1 VEGF bispecific, with speed, breadth and depth across tumor types, lines of therapy settings and novel combinations, including with ADCs. We believe this has the potential to become a next-generation backbone oncology therapy, and we are investing heavily behind it. Our first wave of studies include 7 planned or recently started trials with 2 Phase III studies that -- and we expect the second meaningful wave of study starts in 2026.
2025 was also marked by our strong U.S. and international commercial execution. In the U.S., we are encouraged by our progress across primary care, specialty care and oncology portfolios that are the key to driving strong performance in business. Our international commercial growth also has come from a strategic focus and execution supporting key products in key markets. As we enter a period of loss of exclusivity for several of our major brands, we remain focused on driving growth of recently launched and acquired products while also protecting our core products portfolio.
Financial discipline and productivity improvement was another area of success this year. We remain on track to deliver about $7.2 billion in total combined net cost savings with the majority of the savings now expected by the end of 2026 or rather early 2027 as originally stated. We are committed to enhancing long-term shareholder value, and we advanced the capital allocation strategy that, through the third quarter 2025, returned approximately $7.3 billion to shareholders via our quarterly dividend. Our '25 performance has demonstrated our focus on supporting patients and creating long-term value for some holders. We have shown agility to deliver even as the dynamic COVID-19 environment continues to shift, and our landmark voluntary agreement with the U.S. government, as I said in the beginning, to lower drug cost for American has provided much needed clarity for '26. '25 has strengthened Pfizer's Foundation. As we develop our strategy for the year ahead, we will prioritize our commitment to delivering on the promise of key recent acquisitions and differentiated programs.
Through our internally discovered products as well as acquisitions of Biohaven Pharmaceuticals, Seagen and Metsera, our licensing agreement with 3SBio and additional key development programs, we believe we are well positioned for '29 and '30 to become growth years for Pfizer. We have made strides in simplifying our business, and we intend to continue improving productivity in support of our margins. Additionally, leveraging AI and other technologies is a key area of focus for 2026 as we work to scale these efforts across our enterprise.
With that, I will turn over to Dave to provide the meat of today's meeting, guidance.
Great. Thank you, Albert, and good morning and happy holidays to everyone. As we near the end of 2025, it's clear that Pfizer continues to deliver on its near-term financial commitments while strategically investing for its future. This year, we entered into a licensing agreement with 3SBio, further strengthening our oncology pipeline, and with our recent Metsera acquisition, we have an opportunity to enter the important and expanding obesity space. We expect these deals will further strengthen Pfizer's revenue growth potential late in the decade and beyond. Additionally, we anticipate our recently launched and acquired set of products to demonstrate solid double-digit growth, which we believe will allow us to partially offset the company's future LOEs. .
Let me begin this morning by providing an update on our 2025 financial guidance, which remains strong. With only a couple of weeks remaining in this year, we now expect total revenues to be approximately $62 billion. As you might expect, given the low rate of COVID infections globally, our COVID revenues have been compressed, we now expect our COVID products to deliver revenues of approximately $6.5 billion this year, a decline of approximately 40% versus LY. Paxlovid is more significantly affected as its utilization is directly related to infection rates of the COVID virus. Comirnaty has shown a slower rate of decline as patients continue to seek protection from COVID via vaccinations despite narrowing of government eligibility recommendations.
We expect the declining COVID trends to continue into next year, which I'll cover in just a moment. Importantly, we are reaffirming our 2025 adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance range of $3 to $3.15, demonstrating our confidence in our ability to deliver on our profit commitments despite a weak COVID environment. Further, I'll note that we are trending towards the top end of this EPS guidance range for the year. As we look ahead to 2026, we have confidence in the strength of our business and our ability to deliver on our commitments, all while creating long-term value for our shareholders. On a total company basis, we anticipate 2016 revenues to be in the range of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion.
Our COVID products are expected to trend lower again in '26, with revenues of approximately $5 billion. Paxlovid utilization remains volatile, but closely follows infection rates. Paxlovid's revenues fluctuates based on the timing, duration as well as the severity of COVID-19 cases. Next year Paxlovid's forecast assumes that COVID infection rates will again decline and we expect this will be especially true in Q1 given the current trends.
Comirnaty continues to decline globally but is a more predictable revenue stream near term. In the U.S., we expect a modest decline with stable government eligibility recommendations versus '25. Like in the U.S., we expect a modest revenue decline internationally as we defend our market share and began managing the transition of multiyear contracts. Keep in mind that our existing European commission contract runs through 2026. To be clear, next year, we expect Paxlovid to decline more significantly than Comirnaty. We continue to expect stable revenue contributions from our non-COVID products portfolio, which incorporates an expectation of approximately $1.5 billion in revenue compression due to products impacted by generic entry or loss of patent protection in 2026.
Revenues at the midpoint, excluding COVID and LOE products are expected to grow approximately 4% operationally year-over-year. On a total company basis, we anticipate 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $2.80 to $3 a share. While we are continuing to drive productivity and execute on our cost improvement programs, we are prioritizing investments in our business to drive growth by the end of this decade. The company has made several strategic investments over the past several periods, Seagen, 3SBio and Metsera, just to name a few, and it's imperative to invest behind these important assets as well as our pipeline to maximize their long-term potential.
Let me just highlight a few anticipated significant drivers of EPS performance in '26 versus this year. First, recall that the 3SBio and Metsera transactions have an anticipated dilutive impact of approximately $0.22 or compressing EPS by nearly 7%. Approximately $1.5 billion decline in our COVID revenue expectations drive approximately $0.18 in anticipated earnings compression. And next year, we expect a more typical tax rate of approximately 15%, which drives an anticipated $0.12 earning headwind as compared to 2025's rate. And finally, the company's productivity efforts as well as our recently launched and acquired products are expected to enhance profits in '26, partially offsetting these negative headwinds.
Now moving further down the P&L. Total adjusted SI&A and R&D expenses are expected to be in the range of $23 billion to $25 billion and reflect the anticipated achievement of $5.7 billion of savings from our cost realignment program by year-end 2026. Again, 1 year earlier than initially targeted. I will talk more about that in a moment. Specifically, the company expects adjusted SI&A expenses will be in the range of $12.5 billion to $13.5 billion a reduction of approximately 4% at the midpoint versus 25% guidance. Now adjusted R&D expenses are expected to be in the range of $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion reflecting continued focus and prioritization in key therapeutic areas as well as maximizing the development of PF-4404 as well as the Metsera assets.
The effective tax rate on adjusted income is expected to be approximately 15%, largely reflecting the jurisdictional mix of income as well as a more typical tax year. We will continue to be disciplined with our operational expense management as we remained focused on driving operating margin expansion over the coming years.
Now let me just touch on the phasing of the programs over the next 2 years. Phase 1 of the manufacturing optimization program is expected to achieve savings of $600 million by the end of 2025, with additional expected savings of $700 million in '26 and again, $200 million in '27. As a reminder, we initiated our cost realignment program in Q4 '23, with the midpoint of our August '23 adjusted SI&A and adjusted R&D guidance at approximately $29.7 billion, inclusive of Seagen.
Now let's take a closer look comparing the adjusted SI&A and R&D baseline to the midpoint of our FY '25 and '26 guidance. We expect to achieve $5.6 billion in savings through '25. As previously communicated, approximately $500 million of R&D savings achieved in '25 will be reinvested in '26 and is reflected in our '26 R&D guidance range.
Now looking forward to '26, we expect to achieve $600 million in SI&A savings and considering all of these items, we now expect to deliver $5.7 billion of total net savings by the end of '26, a year ahead of our initial plans. At that point, the savings under the cost realignment program will be achieved. Nonetheless, we will continue to focus on identifying further productivity opportunities and efficiencies as we go forward. We will remain focused and disciplined with our capital allocation.
We recently declared our first quarter '26 dividend, which was maintained at $0.43 a share. We believe the current dividend levels ensures an attractive dividend yield for our shareholders while preserving financial flexibility to continue to invest in the business as well as enhance long-term shareholder value. Additionally, as previously noted, our leverage is expected to end '25, slightly above 2.7x target following the close of the Metsera transaction. However, given the next few years of LOE headwinds, we expect leverage to remain consistent with current levels through the LOE period. That said, we have approximately $6 billion in BD capacity as we enter 2026. Our '26 guidance assumes no share repurchases.
And before I wrap up, I'll touch on just a few other items. We expect to continue to generate robust cash flow from operations in '26. The bulk of the restructuring cash payments related to our cost realignment programs are now behind us. And in '26, we will make our final TCJA repatriation tax payment of approximately $2.6 billion. Additionally, our '26 capital expenditures are expected to be slightly over $3 billion for the year. Adjusted gross margin is expected to be in the mid-70s, which takes into consideration our expected -- expectations of product mix, anticipated impact from our LOEs and anticipated savings from our Phase 1 of our manufacturing optimization program.
Lastly, effective with fiscal year '26, Pfizer is reorganizing the global hospital and biosimilars products, a new organizations, which will bring together our global portfolio of generic sterile injectables, anti-infective injectables as well as biosimilars. We believe the new organization will transform the way we prioritize and deliver these medicines to patients as well as provide productivity benefits within the organization. We'll provide a recast of our '25 product revenue tables before we report Q1 '26 earnings.
As we look ahead, the next few years will be defined by continued investments behind our critical set of assets as well as by managing our upcoming LOEs, which are primarily expected to occur in 2026 through 2028. Between now and the end of the decade, we expect approximately $17 billion of revenues impacted by patent and regulatory exclusivity expiration. Once we move to the latter part of the decade, we expect to see meaningful growth by 3 factors: the maturization of our R&D pipeline, the business development initiatives we've executed, and the continued ramp-up of our recently launched and acquired products. Our priority is to invest strategically so that the end of the decade become strong years of growth. This means balancing cost reductions while ensuring we fund the projects and products that will deliver long-term value.
Our approach is clear, disciplined investments in operational efficiencies designed to achieve and sustain growth and drive shareholder value.
And with that, I'll now turn it back over to Albert and open up for Q&A.
And I turn it immediately back to operator. Please assemble the queue. .
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Alex Hammond with Wolfe Research.
2. Question Answer
I guess can you elaborate a little bit more on your expectation for Vyndaqel growth next year? With the first year of the parts you redesign in the rear view, how are you thinking about continued volume growth of the franchise? And as you expand into more ex-U.S. markets, how much of the net tailwind could that be? I guess the real question is how much do you think that organic growth can offset the recent competitor launches that have taken some new patient starts?
Thank you. This is Dave. We don't really give product level expectations, but just a little bit of color on this. Vyndaqel continues to perform well globally. Specifically, internationally, we continue to see nice progression of the product as we continue to see new patient starts and we continue to maintain our market share. In the U.S., obviously faced with a bit more competition, we continue to invest behind gross to net to make sure that we have proper placement within formularies. We see prescriptions continue to increase, but we continue to have to reduce and improve our gross to net yield to maintain our position. But again, product is a great product. It continues to perform well. It will continue to grow through its LOE period. .
Our next question comes from Terence Flynn with Morgan Stanley.
I guess 2 for me. First, I was just wondering, Dave, if you can give us any color at all about what's embedded for the agreement you signed with the U.S. government regarding MFN for 2026. And then on Metsera, I think we were expecting to see or at least hear from you guys regarding some of the VESPER-3 monthly data. So just wondering if you can confirm if that trial is done, if you can give us any insight in terms of the monthly dosing schedule and then how that might tie into your Phase III plans in '26?
Let me take them and then Dave can speak about what is included in the guidance. And we expect in the first quarter to print and review the results of the monthly dose. So that is coming as part of the plan. I haven't seen those data yet. We are also going to review the data about the combination program. probably also in the Q1, which I had seen, but there are more data coming. So -- and I think they are promising. But we are going to discuss that in the next quarter. So Dave, about the U.S. agreement and how that affects our guidance. .
Certainly, as Albert indicated, the agreement with the U.S. government is a critical milestone for us as we enter 2026, and we think about the next several years, it relieves a significant headwind and allows us to be much more planful and certain about the environment in which we'll operate in. Clearly, with our guidance expectations that we just walked through. There are -- there is price compression and margin compression baked into that, as we have given deeper discounts in our Medicaid business for the U.S. government, which will help patients over time.
I'm not going to break it out specifically, but that is consistent with our expectations with the U.S. government, and we continue to manage to make sure that we can drive affordability measures for our patient and get great access to our drugs and medications.
Our next question comes from Dave Risinger with Leerink Partners.
Yes. Thanks very much, and thank you for the detailed update. So I have 2 questions. First, you've obviously done a great job executing on the efficiencies and bringing them forward. I'm just wondering how we should think about operating costs, i.e., for the SG&A line and for R&D beyond 2026. So is there a specific goal you have, for example, to grow costs modestly in '27 or keep them flat. And then separately, there's a note in one of the slides about $6 billion of BD capacity. Just wondering if you meant that to be for 2026?
Yes. So first, on the efficiency side is I think we have stated pretty clearly that the level of R&D that we currently have within our business is likely appropriate for 2026 and for the next several years. We have a lot of substrate to work through and continue to progress, so we think that's -- in the ZIP Code of where we are today is appropriate. Secondly, on the SI&A side of the house, we continue to look for productivity gains. Clearly, we've made a lot of those already. So probably the pace of those improvements is going to slow, but we're still working our way through that. And then finally, on the BD capacity, clearly, we have $6 billion that will continue in '26 and potentially the '27 until we return to generating more robust cash flows post the LOE period.
Yes. Thank you, Dave. And also Dave, don't forget that there is also the line of cost of goods. But also it's a line that we are having incredible focus right now.
Our next question comes from Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.
Two for me. Just walk me through some of the levers that you can use to maybe drive upside to next year's numbers? I know you highlighted some on the call, but any others you want to focus on. And then I wanted to touch on some commentary you made around performance later in the decade. So I know you're not going to give guidance on trough earnings. But with your discussion around revenue growth in 29, 2030, let's think about what could contribute to trough earnings and how we should be maybe potentially modeling it as we think about your P&L in the next couple of years?
Yes. So I think on the lever side, Evan, I think we've done a nice job of this of managing productivity and cost management across the enterprise. Clearly, as we think about that in the corporate functions, but importantly, in the field force and being able to make sure that we're allocating our expenses in areas that actually drive increased growth or really result in superior performance, so that allocation of SI&A has increased productivity. So I think that's probably the biggest lever we have in the short term.
And I think as it relates to the next several years, probably the best thing to think about this, Evan, is as we go into next year, we have about $1.5 billion of LOEs. Those LOEs double basically as we go into '27. And they yet again, double again as we go into '28. So think about $1.5 billion, $3 billion plus, $6 billion plus, those will be the headwinds that we'll face and we'll have to drive productivity and improvements and drive our newly launched and acquired products to partially offset that. And that's how to think about it, but those are the headwinds that we'll wrestle with. And once '28 is behind us, the vast majority of those LOEs are done and the growth drivers that we invest in over the next several years will be maintained, and that should allow us to begin to accelerate the top line.
And I want to emphasize what Dave says, that he and me, we are laser-focused to bring growth post NDA in this company. And we have, by the end of the decade, to have strong growth. And this is where both the performance of the new products and new launches that will be in their prime time during the end of the decade, it's extremely important. And back to your question, Evan, that would represent potential upside. We think the guidance that we gave, it is the right guidance. We think that we will be within this range. But clearly, we will strive to see what we can do with the new product.
And I think the R&D also investments in business development investments that we are doing right now also should contribute to that level. Don't forget that our Metsera first introduction, we hope will happen in year '28. So in '29 and '30, we will have some more tangible examples -- tangible results that could drive growth.
Our next question comes from Louise Chen with Scotiabank.
I just had 2 for you. First one, I wanted to ask you how you think about the magnitude of growth once you pull out of that trough EPS period in 2029 and 2030? And then maybe if you could just give a little bit more color on what key products you think are going to drive that. And then secondly, if you could give more color on what the 15 obesity studies that you have planned for 2026 will be?
Dave, do you want to take that...
Yes, obviously, we probably can't get too specific there. I will say that what Albert just articulated is between now and 2028, we are focused on investing behind our launched acquired products as well as the business transactions that we've recently done such that we can maximize their potential once we get to '29 and beyond. So I think between now and then, as we get for clarity on the readout, so we get more clarity about where our focus is on some of those products as we see the growth drivers continue to take hold. We can probably give you a bit more color on that. But clearly, we're working to maximize that as we speak today.
Secondly, on the key products, clearly, it goes back to a little bit with Metsera, 4404 but also all the products that we have just we acquired and recently launched, which today at the end of 2025 will be about $10 billion in revenue. Again growing at double digits going into next year.
That's an area that I'm also very encouraged to see the growth of that business because it's also the results of the investments we did. Also I want to add a little bit on the 15 studies that we spoke on obesity, those -- I can't tell you which ones they are for several reasons and competition. But of course, we will disclose the plan, but I can give you some color. Most of them will be because of [ this ] offer -- Metsera portfolio. That's clear. Also, I can tell you on the 15, most of them will be Phase III. And in addition to the Metsera, of course, you need to think about our own pipeline. .
And the one that it is right now the most advanced is in Phase II. It is an oral GIPR that we are testing on the backbone of GLP-1. Keep in mind that we just did the licensing of an oral GLP-1, which is clearly more advanced than ours in the clinic. So in case the GIPR is proven the theory correct, but it does create synergistic effects on GLP-1, the addition of GIPR. Then we have our own GIPR but will not delay -- our own GLP-1, that will not delay as much the GIPR program because this one that we license is more advanced. So all of that will be part of our clinical program that we will have for obesity, which I repeat at least 15 studies, of which most will be Phase III.
Our next question comes from Geoff Meacham with Citibank.
I just have a couple. The first on metabolic disease, I just want to get your perspective on the pricing volume assumptions looking to the end of the decade, just following the White House agreement and post the Metsera closing. I wasn't sure if those numbers align with kind of of your deal assumptions? And then strategically, it does seem that vaccines are in a tougher spot in this environment. Does Pfizer look at this as short term in terms of your investments? Or is there maybe a natural push in hem/onc and metabolic where infectious disease will diminish and its contribution over time?
Let me maybe take the first question on the metabolic disease, which very -- basically is the obesity portfolio. And the MFN agreements with Lilly. First of all -- and Novo Nordisk. The prices that we saw that were announced were pretty much the prices that we estimated when we did our NPV analysis for Metsera portfolio. So they were quite a bit aligned with what we had. Actually, since we did the analysis and we went into our agreement with -- to acquire Metsera, there were a few things that happened. Most of them are on the positive side rather than on the negative.
One was that we never calculated the Medicare in our expectations. Now there is a Medicare business to be expected given the Lilly and Novo agreements. The second thing is that we didn't appreciate how large the out-of-pocket market will be international. We had a much smaller business, similar prices versus the U.S., so MFN will not be affected, but very much lower uptake because we assume that without the reimbursement, the uptake will not be very big. We are seeing multiples of what we were expecting in the cash market, which clearly also will help was cover and derisk a lot of our projections with Metsera.
Then on the vaccines. I think vaccines are an essential part of any health care system, I believe strongly and like the vast majority of the scientific community, the vast majority of the payers, if not exclusively and of the government health care systems that vaccines, it is the most cost-effective intervention to prevent illness in the world and that will continue, will not go away. I can assure you are not going back to Pasteur, Louis Pasteur times or before his times. There is clearly an anomaly, I would call it right now in this trend of everyone believing that, which is reflected in the beliefs of HHS and all the institutions that they are controlling like the FDA, which makes several comments about vaccines, the CDC that make several comments about vaccine.
I think those comments, they don't have merit, and that will not change the way that we are looking our long-term investment on vaccines. We will continue investing on vaccines because, as I said, this is an anomaly that will correct itself. I hope pretty soon.
Our next question comes from Jason Gerberry with Bank of America.
So my question is just as we think about 2026 and sort of the obesity and PD-1 bispecific investment, should we be thinking about as like more of a partial year investment and then 2027 looks like more of a full encumbrance of the P&L as you get those programs up and running full year, steady state. And as you kind of navigate those P&L dynamics, any programs that are going to get delayed or terminated? Any additional color you can just kind of provide as to how you navigate some of those puts and takes from a P&L perspective?
Jason, it's Dave. I think largely, think about the obesity and the PD-L1 investment in '26 as a full year run rate. Obviously, there are ebbs and flows in any R&D pipeline based on Phase III starts because they're typically more expensive. But by and large, it's fully loaded. I think that's the most critical component of that.
Our next question comes from Mohit Bansal with Wells Fargo.
Happy holidays to all of you as well. So a couple of questions. One, I want to double-click on the thought process that 2029 and '30, you could grow as well. So in our models, it can happen if you can extend tafamidis beyond 2029. Is that the thought process there as well or is that baked in there as well?
And then the second one is on Metsera. Are we going to see data from the monthly dosing as well as the combination dosing next -- in the first quarter as well? Or it is just an internal review at this point?
Let me take the Metsera quickly because I answered it before, and then Dave can take the financial question. Yes, we expect to see in the first half probably earlier than later. But in the first half, the -- both the monthly data and the combo date. Dave, on the financials?
Yes. We expect that we will grow by the end of the decade, not with the extension of Vyndaqel from a LOE perspective, is our expectation that certainly in the U.S. that will go LOE in late '28. We have enough substrate in our pipeline as well as what we've acquired and what we've advanced and launched recently to return to growth by the end of the decade is our expectation.
And don't forget that, as Dave said, this is -- this year is expected to be in the ZIP code of $10 billion revenues, this portfolio growing double digit. So that accelerates and grows significantly as we move towards those years plus all these new acquisitions that will add data in the pipeline.
Our next question comes from Chris Schott with JPMorgan.
Appreciate the questions. My first question was just on capital deployment and where share repo might fit into the mix? I guess, just consider what the stock price is, is that part of the consideration at this point? Or as you work through the LOE cycle, is really the prioritization here for more on the BD side of things?
And then maybe just the second question was just following up on the margin front. On the gross margin front, is it still reasonable to think about upper 70% margins over time? I know you got some initiatives playing through. I'm just trying to get a sense if you're trying to just kind of land with this operating margin range could look like these next few years before you return to growth? I'm just trying to get any color you might have on the GM side would be great. .
Yes. Chris, Dave. On the capital allocation and deployment. Obviously, I would love to do share repurchase. I'm a big share repurchase believer. I think it drives a lot of value. The reality is at this point in time, I think the best and highest use of capital is continued investment in business development. So we do not anticipate doing any share repurchases in the near term. Secondly, as you think about gross margin, we do expect that over time, we can get to the mid- to high 70s.
Obviously, over the next 2 to 3 years with this headwind of these LOEs, that puts tremendous pressure on gross margin. So we'll have to work through that. But we're working hard so that when we come out of this growth period, we come out not only at growth from a top line perspective, but we come out with what I would consider productive growth where we can really drive margins and drive leverage through the P&L. So we're accelerating delivery of earnings post that period. Hope that helps.
Our next question comes from Courtney Breen with Bernstein.
I did just want to jump back to the -- to your comments, Albert, earlier on the White House deal and impact on the business. I just wanted to clarify, do you think that the reason you're not having to call out any material impact to your economics this year -- I am sorry, for 2026, is something specific to Pfizer and the Pfizer deal that was made? Or do you think this is something that we can anticipate for other players in the sector when it comes to their deals given the similar constructs?
And then secondly, you did call out today the new business unit that's being established kind of aggregating some of these kind of less core parts of your organization. Can you talk a little bit about the different trajectories or kind of different long-term potential scenarios that could play out with that business unit? And specifically, is there an opportunity to remove more manufacturing cost that is kind of in the Pfizer base if you were to spin out this particular business unit over time?
Thank you, Courtney. Very good question. Look, on the MFN, I don't know. Of course, the deals of the other companies, so I don't know. What is inside them and how they affect their EPS in 2026. What I want to clarify is that neither Dave nor me said that the impact is not material. What we said it is included in our guidance. We are covering it because we have things that are doing very well. So don't assume that it would be immaterial. I think you should assume there is an impact as we always said and will be covered.
As regards to the hospital business, which is a combination of sterile injectables, biosimilars, this is a business that has very different characteristics than the remaining Pfizer business. It is mainly -- the main customer is hospitals, both internationally and in the U.S. of this portfolio. Those products are typically generic products. So their promotion is not that much based on detailing to physicians because they are very experienced by using them. It is more key account management on the hospitals.
And the 2 things that matter the most with this business, it is the cost of goods and even more importantly, reliable supply. So those are the 2 things that help you to get market share with this business. As a result, we built together an end-to-end business where commercial and manufacturing are all under one leader in this business. That's extremely important because the cost of goods now and the market share are within the same leader that has to maximize and optimize the P&L. That's a very important step.
So what do we expect from that business? First of all, you need to understand that it is sizable in terms of size, but not that big in terms of Pfizer. But in terms of overall SKUs, it's almost half of Pfizer SKUs. So basically, we are moving half of the SKUs, removing the complexity of the business into almost a stand-alone business that we'll be able to maximize in a much better way. And the maximization has to do with both optimization of cost, optimization of supply, cleaning of the portfolio, as a result, gaining market share. And the bottom line, it is improving as much as possible the EPS that is generated by this business.
Yes. Maybe just a little color additional on that is when you think about these set of products, they're not big growing products. These are products that have been around for a long time. They're generics, are stable, they're consistent. What we can do by organizing this fashion is be able to drive productivity through how we deliver and execute against these products and getting them to hospitals and patients ultimately. So think about this as more of a productivity play than it is a growth play at this point.
Our next question comes from Carter Gould with Cantor.
I wanted to double-click on the dividend strategy. We did see an evolution on that front with you sort of maintaining a dividend for the first time in sort of 16 years after steady increases. How should we think about the evolution of that strategy going forward, specifically sort of the push pulls from here as we contemplate COVID EU contracts running off in '27 and the prioritization of business development?
Thank you. Obviously, the dividend is very important and a critical component of our capital allocation strategy. To be very clear, we're very focused on maintaining the dividend. And to be very clear, ultimately, we're very focused on growing the dividend. The reality is at the moment, as we go into this period of LOEs in this investment period to lock in growth by the end of the decade, we think the best and highest use is to give financial flexibility to invest back into the business behind the substrate to be sure that we can return to growth. So that's the priority. That's the focus, that's the allocation strategy at this point in time.
Our next question comes from Kerry Holford with Berenberg.
Just one, please, on the tax rate guidance now back up to 15%. Just interested to hear you talk about how that might evolve. Clearly, it's evolved more positively than expected through the course of this year. Can you envisage any flex on that into the year ahead?
Thank you, Kerry. Obviously, we're planning for next year to be, I'll say, a more typical tax year. If you look at now the global tax infrastructure, 15% is a fairly typical overlay and expectation for that rate. I do -- obviously, this year has been a little lower, largely because of some very specific onetime discrete items that will not be repeated next year. So I think 15% is a reasonable expectation for the next several years, assuming no major overhaul in tax policy from a government perspective.
Our next question comes from Vamil Divan with Guggenheim Partners.
I think most of mine have been asked, but a couple of follow-ups on topics that have been asked about before. One, just on the management optimization program in Phase 1 of the cost optimization program, the $1.5 billion that you've laid out. I'm curious, I think when you first announced that Phase I, you did say there'd likely be a Phase II and maybe more beyond. I'm just curious when we might get more visibility on the manufacturing side and again, further optimization there.
And then Albert, I was curious on your comments regarding the vaccines that you made earlier, and it sounds like maybe there will be a reversal over time and kind of your views are in line with the majority of the scientific community. I'm just curious from your side in your role at Pfizer and your role at pharma, is there anything what you're doing or what you think you can do maybe differently to try and address, I guess, not just the vaccines, but also some of the other maybe broader dysfunctions in the FDA, which I think a lot of investors are just wondering about this may be a broader than Pfizer question. But given your leadership position, I'm just curious if you could comment on kind of what can be done to give investors a little more comfort on how some of these factors are playing out in GC right now.
Thank you, Samir. Let me answer that one, and then Dave can go to the financial question. Look, in pharma, the entire pharma is very worried about it, irrelevant if they are on vaccines or not because what is worrisome, it is that the science is replaced with political beliefs or with sometimes obsession, that it can be easily moved to other areas of the business. So everyone is, let's say, worried about what is happening. But I would say this is nothing our worry compared to the worry that we see in the world.
The American associations of pediatricians or obstetricians, of cardiologists, you name it, of neurologists, they are extremely, extremely upset and they keep issuing statements that they are contradicting recommendations that are happening from CDC. Let's not forget that CDC used to be the most reliable and credible organization in the world that everybody was looking up at. And right now, we have, for the first time, the entire world. And by the way, that includes WHO, the World Health Organization, includes health authorities of other countries that they are not doing what they are recommending here.
So I think we need to let the whole thing play. As I said, it is an anomaly that will correct itself. Well, I think it's mostly driven politically. And when political situation allows, that I think will be resolved. It has nothing to do with science. Now Dave, let's go back to what you were saying.
Yes. So on the margin improvement program that we have in place, first, Phase 1, we're very happy. It's going to deliver $1.5 billion savings over the next few years. So we're off to the races from that standpoint. Secondly, what's important is that to Albert's point earlier, the agreement with the U.S. government now gives us a stable environment in which we can plan for the next several years. So this will allow us to begin to plan for and execute additional phases of our program in the future and think about the hospital and biosimilar product grouping that we announced today is the next evolution of us organized in a way to drive efficiencies across our business, across our manufacturing platform specifically. So you'll hear more about this as we move forward, but that's kind of where we stand at the moment.
Our next question comes from Steve Scala with TD Cowen Securities.
This is Chris on for Steve Scala. Pfizer has been saying growth could return in 2028, but today you're saying 2029 to '30. Why the pushout? And second, what are the most important clinical readouts that Pfizer expects in 2026?
Maybe I'll just -- I'll hit the first one, and Albert, maybe you can take the second one.
No, you can take the second one.
Okay. So as we think about the first one, we've been very clear that we have these LOEs '26, '27 and '28. And '28 being the largest, and we would not return to growth until we hit the end of the decade. And as we think about readouts coming up, and we'll have more to say about this in the future, but Padcev has a very important readout soon, Elrexfio additional indications from multiple melanoma. Our SV readout is coming out next year, which will be critical and important to us as we think about that. Our VESPER-3 data, Metsera is another readout. We have lyme disease also reading out at some point in time. So those are just off the top of my head, some critical ones. And there's -- as we go into JPMorgan as we go into the first half of this year, we'll be more explicit and give you a scorecard so you can track our performance against these readouts.
Yes. Very important year for readouts next year. Okay. The last question, please. .
Our last question comes from Asad Haider with Goldman Sachs.
Most of mine have been answered as well. But maybe just going back to the obesity market and Albert your comments on how growth in the cash pay segment is giving you incremental confidence in your internal projections. So if you could just double-click on that comment a little bit more in the context of just consumerization trends impacting how you're thinking about U.S. and OUS launch dynamics. Are there any analogs we should be looking at? And then maybe any updated framing on how you expect the oral versus injectable mix to evolve over time?
Yes. Let me start with the obesity market and the part of the cash market. It is the first time that we have seen since the Viagra introduction, an international market, but also a U.S. market that it is developing such a very, very big part of cash pay. It's a very different type of animal this category and the passion of the consumers to receive the medicine, it is what is driving that. That clearly plays strongly to companies that have very strong international presence, which is what we are.
Don't forget that I don't think anyone else has more direct -- let's say, more direct presence in so many countries with so much relations with health care authorities, physicians and with direct field forces than us. I think really in the industry, we are very, very, very large across the world. So from that aspect, I think plays to our strength, but -- and in general, plays to the strength of this market for all companies.
The second thing about the oral. We always believe that oral could be a very significant component. You remember that we had the first probably oral molecules of GLP-1s way back in the day. We believed in that. Unfortunately, those molecules have failed. So we stayed with a very strong clinical organization, very strong manufacturing organization, very strong commercial, but not portfolio. And that was a very big uncertainty for Pfizer, what is your obesity strategy. By doing the Metsera now we have a very clear obesity strategy. Metsera has also oral products, and they have both amylin and the GLP-1s. They are peptides. But unlike other peptides, they don't have to be taken with full -- with empty stomach. So which means that you can take it in the morning irrelevant if you take breakfast, right? So which is a very big advantage, I think.
But of course, the biggest will be the efficacy, which we are very optimistic about it. And then we have our own oral. And the most important of that, it is a GIPR antagonist, but we have many other I just want to clarify in our pipeline. But a GIPR antagonist that we are awaiting Phase II now. And I think it is the most advanced GIPR oral in the world right now among all our pharmaceutical companies. So if the results are positive and we really see on the Phase II that creates synergistic effects on top of GLP-1s, we do have now also a GLP-1 oral that it is a small dose that can be easily combined because the small dose is a very important component of combining. And that, I think, will give us a strong play also into the oral market. So we believe oral could become a significant market, treat the masses, and we are going to have a very strong play in that.
So thank you very much for all. I think that concludes our call. As we look to the year ahead, I'm really confident and excited about our future. Business is performing well. We are very disciplined in the way that we allocate our capital in internal R&D, we are having a lot of efficiencies from SI&A, we have a lot of efficiencies from manufacturing cost of goods. And by the way, we have a lot of efficiencies from R&D, which we are reinvesting in R&D, which we believe is the absolutely right thing to do. So I'm really thinking that '26 will be a pivotal year for Pfizer, and we are going to take a small break, our thousands of colleagues so that they can return very strong into this new year. Happy holidays to all.
Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.
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Pfizer — Pfizer Inc., 2026 Guidance/Update Call, Dec 16, 2025
Pfizer — Pfizer Inc., 2026 Guidance/Update Call, Dec 16, 2025
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Pfizer gibt 2026‑Guidance: Umsatz $59.5–62.5 Mrd., adjusted diluted EPS $2,80–3,00. COVID‑Umsatz weiter rückläufig (~$5 Mrd. erwartet für 2026). Management setzt auf Kostenprogramme und M&A (Metsera, Seagen, 3SBio) sowie schnellen Ausbau im Bereich Adipositas und Onkologie.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Obesity: Metsera‑Übernahme plus exklusive Lizenzvereinbarung; rund 15 Programme für 2026, viele Phase‑III; Entwicklung von oralen und injizierbaren Kandidaten, inkl. oralem GIPR‑Antagonisten (Phase II).
- Onkologie: Investition in PF‑4404 (PD‑1/VEGF bispecific) mit mehreren Studien und Ausbau von Padcev‑Indikationen (FDA‑Zulassung erweitert adressierbaren Patientenpool).
- Kapital & Kosten: Kein Rückkauf in 2026 angenommen; Q1‑Dividende $0,43; BD‑Kapazität ~ $6 Mrd.; Einsparziel $5,7 Mrd. bis Ende 2026 (Produktions‑, SI&A‑ und R&D‑Programme).
🔎 Neue Informationen
- Guidance‑Update: 2025 Umsatz nun ~ $62 Mrd.; 2025 EPS‑Guidance bekräftigt ($3,00–3,15). 2026: COVID‑Umsatz ~ $5 Mrd.; ~ $1,5 Mrd. Umsatzkompression durch LOE erwartet; effektivem Steuersatz ~15%.
- US‑Abkommen: Freiwillige Vereinbarung mit US‑Regierung schafft Klarheit zu Preisgestaltung und Zöllen (3‑Jahres‑Gnadenfrist) — Effekte in Guidance berücksichtigt, nicht einzeln ausgewiesen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Produkt‑Detail: Management gibt keine produkt‑spezifischen Umsatzprognosen (z.B. Vyndaqel); Wachstum wird qualitativ, nicht quantitativ kommentiert.
- Metsera‑Daten: VESPER‑3 (monatliche Dosis) und Kombinationsdaten sollen im Q1 geprüft/mitgeteilt werden; weitere Details in kommenden Quartalen.
- LOE & Kapital: Umfang und Timing der Loss‑of‑Exclusivity (≈$1.5B in 2026, deutlich mehr 2027–28) bleiben zentrale Unsicherheit; Priorität hat BD vor Rückkäufen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: 2026 wird als Übergangsjahr mit rückläufigen COVID‑Erlösen und LOE‑Headwinds präsentiert. Einsparungen und gezielte Investitionen sollen Ergebnisdruck mildern; entscheidend für den Kurs sind kommende klinische Readouts (Adipositas, PF‑4404, Padcev) und die Kommerzialisierung der jüngsten Zukäufe.
Pfizer — Jefferies London Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone. I hope you're all doing well. Nice to see a packed room. Day 3 of our London Healthcare Conference. And again, I was mentioning today, it's good to see optimism and smiling faces year-over-year increase. My name is Akash Tewari. I'm a pharma and biotech analyst here at Jefferies. I have the pleasure of hosting the Pfizer management team. Dave, why don't I hand it off to you for some entry remarks, and we'll get started.
Great. Thank you. First, thank you for hosting us today. I really appreciate everybody's interest in the company. I think, as you know, we're -- 2024 and 2025 has been a very interesting and exciting year for us. I think as we started out in this journey for the year, we continue to focus on executing at a high level, both commercially and also financially. We continue to deliver on our financial promises. And importantly, as we think about the next several years, we have a very keen focus on ensuring that we return to growth in the '29 and '30 time frame for our business.
Over the next several years, we have many LOEs coming about. So we have done a few things as we begin to manage our way through this LOE period. First and foremost, we've improved our cost structure. We've identified about $7.7 billion of cost improvements across our business that are being taken out over the next several years. So we're rightsizing the business for again, as we enter the LOE period, at the same time, making sure that we're investing for growth in the back half of the decade. Secondly, we restructured and reorganized our R&D emphasis. We've promoted Chris Boshoff to lead our R&D infrastructure and organization within Pfizer. He has created a world-class team around him, focused in oncology, vaccines, internal medicine and I&I. We'll talk about some of the programs that we have behind those.
Thirdly, we have just implemented and executed 2 really important business development transactions, one with 3SBio to further supplement our oncology practice in our oncology business. And then very recently, the Metsera transaction which will allow us to enter the obesity place space in a very meaningful way.
So again, I think we're very excited about where we are. We continue to invest at the appropriate levels to ensure that our business returns to growth, and we continue to focus on improving productivity. So with that, happy to go into some details.
Yes, absolutely. You know what, you mentioned the BD deals. Why don't we start with that? And I'll go from this perspective. Whenever your team has talked about and we'll start with Metsera, Pfizer and obesity. Historically, it was -- when we think about the global OBC market, you're never going to be able to reach so many patients. Using the injectable approach, it was really an oral small molecule angle that I think your team was particularly interested in.
But over time, I think your team did start to talk about other forms of differentiation. And I think one of the things that stood out about Metsera was even though they were a SMID-cap, they did look at obesity with kind of a global approach, and they were looking at it from a health economic perspective. What did you see in that asset that really let your team say, even if we might get in a bit of a bidding war with our friends on this side of the Atlantic, it was really worth it for Pfizer?
Yes. Albert called it the crisis phase of our location, if you will. I think a couple of things. As we looked at first, taking a step back and thinking about obesity and how Pfizer can play with this. We have really 3 strengths that allows us to play in this space in a very competitive way. One, we have a very strong commercial engine within primary care globally, probably the largest and the biggest and most robust program in the world. Secondly, we have a footprint of manufacturing both in the U.S. and outside the U.S. that would allow us to very quickly ramp up and to be able to accommodate molecules and medicines in this space. And thirdly, we have a long history in research in cardiometabolic diseases.
So we have a platform in the sense to be very successful in obesity. The one thing that we didn't have as a successful product in late stages. Metsera, when we looked at this and we looked at the landscape pretty broadly globally, we felt like it had a want a platform of products, so it's not just one product. It has the opportunity to be very differentiated from a potentially monthly dosage perspective with a very good profile from a tolerability perspective and very limited side effects. So I think both with the GLP-1 as well as the Amylin platform. I think the combination of those 2 with the existing pipeline that we have with the GIPR antagonist that we have in our early phases both stand-alone but also in combination, we feel like this could be a meaningful platform for us to compete over the next decade.
Understood. And just to be clear, you mentioned it's monthly. When you thought about the value add for Metsera and you thought dosing, was being a monthly kind of combination approach really critical when you were evaluating that portfolio?
Yes, it is. The platform itself can work on a weekly basis, financially, we believe. But I think taking it to the monthly dosage will allow us to be very differentiated in the marketplace, which allow us to, we think, even be further successful versus a weekly platform.
Understood. And it's interesting. I've -- whenever companies do ask me, should we enter into the obesity space, I've always said, absolutely, I mean, tirzepatide, the world's biggest drug in 2 years. I think that's something. But it's funny when you think about entering into obesity, I think especially a year ago, 2 years ago, it's always -- I need to spend $20 billion in CapEx. I need to catch up with Lilly and Novo. And I think we're seeing that, that's not necessarily the framework we should be thinking about. When you think about CapEx necessary to really compete in obesity, what do you feel like is the adequate amount of investment for Pfizer?
Ironically, we don't have a big CapEx need to support this platform. We have an infrastructure of manufacturing as well as research that we can kind of plug these assets into the existing infrastructure that we have. Keep in mind, we will have to reconfigure a bit of our production lines, but the relatively minor incremental investments that we need to make over the next several years to support these medicines. So we feel like -- as we think about the return platform just financially, getting a medicine in the space, we do not have to make those incremental investments to ensure that these medicines get to market.
Understood. Maybe actually, on the TrumpRx deal and the announcement, I mean, obviously, Pfizer is putting products there already. But I can't help but think you're going to have an obesity portfolio entering into the market in the next couple of years. How -- first of all, what do you think about that TrumpRx deal in terms of suddenly, Medicare now has access to obesity treatments? And really, is that an avenue that Pfizer would be interested in entering with the Metsera portfolio?
Likely, I think it's a little early to tell that definitively at this point in time. I will say that the recent announcements with both Novo and Lilly when we thought about the pricing constructs that was announced, largely in the same material levels that we thought about pricing at this point in time. We -- clearly, as we thought about this market over the next decade, we clearly understood it was going to be a very competitive market. There's going to be more entrants coming in the market. There's going to be price pressure. So we expected that. I think the one thing that we didn't count on was actually a coverage by Medicare. So it's probably an upside as we think about looking into the future. And so we'll see how that plays out over time. But I think that's constructive to the environment in the U.S.
Understood. And maybe just finally, again, I can't help but think the oral small molecule part for Pfizer in terms of entering obesity and the global potential is still something your team is interested in exploring. But you also are in terms of your piggybank for M&A this year, you set out $15 billion in terms of what you were comfortable with spending. A, is Pfizer still interested in adding an oral small molecule as a part of their obesity approach? And also, given you do have some capital constraints now, should we think about maybe China as an avenue where you could potentially explore adding that product into your portfolio?
Yes. The answer is yes to both of those. But keep in mind that actually Metsera has an early preclinical, some oral medications as well as we do as well within our pipeline, but early stages. At the same time, we will look globally to maybe supplement this asset over time to ensure that we're competitive in all segments, so for sure.
Understood. Now maybe stepping back and the deal that Albert was really in the forefront in terms of securing a deal with the Trump administration and "removing the regulatory overhang". I think on the Q3 call, your team had mentioned, this deal will be dilutive to a certain extent '26 EPS. Can you kind of put some guardrails in terms of where the pushes and pulls? And I know, obviously, you can't give guidance, but how impactful from a ballpark perspective this would be?
Yes. I probably can't get into too much detail here, but maybe frame it up a little bit in the sense that we clearly are giving MFN pricing, so discounts within the Medicaid segment of our business, which is about 5% of the U.S. volume, about 2.5%, 3% of our global volume. So we will take price compressions in that piece to make sure that medicines are more affordable to our most vulnerable citizens in the U.S. So that will be a headwind to us.
I think to your point, this does allow this construct with the U.S. government allows for a constructive path forward such that we can better plan our business. We can understand the infrastructure we can utilize in the U.S. and what we can utilize outside the U.S., understand how pricing going forward both U.S. and ex U.S., hopefully can come closer to parity over time, and it gives a framework for allowing that to happen systematically over some time so that all countries can begin to absorb and plan for those adjustments in pricing.
So we think it's a good start. We think we're well positioned to now make the strategic decisions necessary in our business to continue to improve our productivity going forward.
Understood. And I can't help but think with the guardrails you just kind of sent, that seems like modestly incremental but not a major framework shift in terms of how you were thinking about next year's guidance.
Yes, I think that's correct. And it also -- clearly, we have made commitments to make additional investments within the U.S. from a manufacturing perspective, and we will continue to do that. The good news is we have as we think about Metsera and 3SBio and even our Seagen portfolio, we need to make investments in manufacturing and in research within the U.S. to support these products and these portfolios going forward. So we will leverage that commitment to continue to invest to ensure those products come to market.
Understood. Now Dave, you had mentioned Pfizer becomes a growth company as we kind of exit the decade. But I think another part of that, which maybe doesn't get as appreciated. I had the pleasure of hosting the Bristol team earlier in the conference. Bristol obviously talks about trough earnings and then kind of a return to growth. I've never sensed that Pfizer -- it's not a trough earnings type of story for Pfizer. It almost seems like it's more -- your team has shown an ability to have earnings north of $3. And it seems like state stability when we think about earnings power towards the end of the decade with the potential to growth. How would you characterize that?
Yes. I think what's important for us, obviously, as we go into next year and the next 2 years after that, that's the bulk of our LOEs. We have between now and the end of the decade, about $17 billion of product losing patent protection. The bulk of that is '26, '27 and '28. Once we get behind '28, we began to -- the LOEs largely behind us, we can begin to see both maturity in our R&D pipeline plus business development work that we've just done, plus the acceleration and continued ramp-up of our newly launched products. We can see real growth at that point in time. Now listen, that's not modeled into the expectations from an investor perspective because it's a little further out. And we have the need to put some additional data on the board to demonstrate that we have products to fill in that gap over time.
I think the point between now and 2029 is we need to make sure that we're investing appropriately such that '29 and '30 are growth years. And I think we're much more focused on ensuring that investment is properly allocated, focused in the right areas and are very consistent with making sure that we deliver on those growth aspirations over time. So we've not set a minimum EPS target. We have not set kind of a trough as you discussed, but I think it's more about we're making our business much more efficient by taking out costs, but also ensuring that we're not starving those products and those projects and those areas that really allow us to grow over time.
Understood. Now I think we're all work in progress. I can say that for myself. When you look at Pfizer and what you just laid out as a company that returns to meaningful growth, exiting the decade, how much of a work in progress are you that with your current portfolio? Are there assets that you still need to acquire externally to really achieve that?
No. I think that we have the substrate within our either newly acquired or launched products as well as the substrate that we have in our pipeline today to do that. Most of the products that we're looking at are opportunities we're looking at are typically late '29, '30 or '31. So I don't think there's anything from a business development perspective that's going to, at this point, meaningfully change the growth trajectory between now and 2030 for the most part.
Understood.
Even Metsera, which we think is going to be a great, if successful, a great acquisition. It comes about in '28 and '29 and '30. So it's really almost behind -- it really peaks after 2030.
Now I also cover BioNTech, and obviously, both you and that company got an influx of cash from what happened during the pandemic, which again, was well deserved. But even BioNTech thought about when we're developing a PD-1 VEGF and we're thinking about the costs associated with running these novel, novel combinations, they were looking at Bristol as a partner to really space out that cost. You have the 3SBio asset. And you can tell how excited your team is. But I feel like, to a certain extent, who's going to win this race? Is it really a battle of BD and running the right trials and also finding the right partners? When you think about the costs associated to really make that product reach its potential, how much of that spend do you think will be done by Pfizer versus thinking about external partners to really spread out the OpEx spend?
Obviously, we'll look to see if a partner, not so much financially, but more operationally can bring some insights to the development plan. I would say, having said that, my expectation is the vast majority, if not all of that spend will be borne by Pfizer at this point in time. We have, I think, 7 programs that we've identified that we're going to launch within 3SBio to ensure that medicines appropriately, I guess, designed over time to fit the right patient population and profile, and we'll invest aggressively behind it.
Back to my point earlier while not talking about a trough earnings, we're talking about making sure that we put the right R&D dollars against an asset like 3SBio such that in '30 or '31, '32, it becomes a very meaningful product and the race is on. So I think we are focused very much on investing in from a timing perspective to be -- we'd like to be first to market. We're working to that, and we're aggressively investing to ensure that we can achieve that.
Understood. Now maybe stepping back and we go again with that $15 billion external capital commitment, you're kind of towards the tail end of that right now. Let's put it this way, and I think we hear this from a lot of our companies. If we find the right asset, we will do what's necessary to externally acquire it. And then number two is, again, your team has also been very disciplined in terms of your BD approach.
So given some of your more limited capital constraints now, what areas is your team most focused on building out for the rest of the year or into '26? And then number two, let's put it this way, how much of a hard line is that $15 billion number that your team communicated at the start of the year?
Yes. It's a pretty hard number. We're -- keep in mind that we're probably now with Metsera down to about $5 billion in capacity that we have over the next couple of years. Maybe from an area perspective, let me kind of go through my 4 therapeutic areas and talk about where we are at this point in time. First, oncology. Our pipeline with the Seagen acquisition in 3SBio is very rich at this point in time. So we're opportunistically looking to how to fill additional substrate into oncology. We don't need it. But I think if we can opportunistically put something in there to enhance our market potential and reach to patients, we will do so, but not a big need.
Vaccines is a space that's largely internally developed. We will always look to the external environment from BD, but realistically, there's not a big opportunity BD. So check the box, we're probably okay there. Internal Medicine, we just made a big bet in Metsera. So we've kind of checked the box. To your point, we may supplement that asset with smaller molecules over time, but pretty much, we've laid our bet for the next several years in internal medicine. Now we have I&I. I&I, we have 2 trispecifics in the pipeline that we think very highly of. But if you really look at the substrate within I&I, it's not as robust as we'd like. So I think that's an area strategically, we'd like to understand if we can -- is there additional molecules or projects that we can bring into that platform over time.
Interesting. And when you think about I&I, there's kind of, I think, 2 angles that we're seeing in terms of differentiation going forward. You have your trispecifics. You're already in that -- you finish your contribution of components angle, you can get products relatively quickly into the clinic. There's also the oral side, right? And you've seen Lilly, really, I think, look at I&I targets with an eye towards getting oral molecules. When you think about differentiation in I&I going forward and you think, a, combinations of novel targets with -- that are potentially biologics versus an oral approach, what kind of fits best into Pfizer's internal capabilities?
We actually have probably capabilities to do both a bit from -- within our infrastructure. Obviously, we're -- we have steep knowledge in the oral small molecule space is probably our sweet spot. But if you think about what we've done over the last decade, we've actually moved more into biologics and actually by the end of the decade, the vast majority of our revenues will likely be in biologics versus small molecules. So we have capacity in both. So I'm not -- I wouldn't say that's a limiting factor for us. We looked at what is the best medicine to reach the most patients in a highly unmet need situation.
Understood. Now this is, I think, a question that just kind of occurred to me now. Tafamidis has been such a remarkable product, and I think it's really changed the amyloidosis space. And I just can't -- we'll hear this from investors too, you're just modeling tafamidis revenues going off the patent towards the end of the decade. And it kind of feels wrong, right? Like you've built out a sales force there in specialty cardiovascular. You've really started to make inroads into the community care setting.
How do you think about -- when you think about external BD not letting that go to waste, right? What are you seeing in the specialty cardiovascular realm, which is still interesting to your team? And could we think about other developments in ATTR for Pfizer?
We're always looking at that. I think we're unfortunately in a tough situation with the pending LOE coming, particularly in the U.S., I think, in 2028. But we're constantly looking at what could we do clinically, what can we do from a BD perspective or what can we do legally to extend the patent on that molecule. At this point in time, I don't have anything to announce. I don't have a pathway for that, but just rest assured that it's certainly a big priority within the 4 walls of Pfizer to understand if there's something we can do to unlock that both in the U.S. and as well as internationally.
Okay. Understood. Now it's interesting. Your team laid out different OpEx cuts in kind of waves. And I think when the initial wave came out maybe 2 years ago, I feel like there was -- and your team kind of also hinted at this, there could be more to come. There was more operating leverage flexibility that your team had depending on how the portfolio approach, how the portfolio played out and then also what you're comfortable with doing.
You're now as we go in towards the end of the decade, thinking about $7 billion in either cuts that have already occurred or are planned to occur going forward, should we still have that sense that there's maybe a bit left in the tank for Pfizer in terms of operational efficiencies?
Yes, there is. I think keep in mind that by the end of this year, we'll generate $4.5 billion of savings of the $7.7 billion target. That largely doesn't include a lot of the cost savings that we've already "achieved" or implemented within our manufacturing facilities because think about when we improve productivity and manufacturing facility, that shows up in improved cost of goods sold. That shows up in better gross margin when we sell the product. And typically, we sit on several months of products. So as we turn product into 2026, you will see improved gross margins due to those cost savings. So while we've -- maybe we've not realized all those savings. Many of those savings have already been achieved from an infrastructure perspective.
Now as we cycle into 2026, we have new opportunities to go improve the productivity across either enabling functions as well as our manufacturing facilities and our commercial operations. So there's more opportunities there. We continue to leverage technology and process improvement to do that and really streamline our focus.
Maybe just last thing, Dave. I think this is one of the more underappreciated parts of this year for Pfizer. I know 2 years ago, you're always getting questions. I think you probably still might get some of, well, Pfizer cut the dividend, et cetera, et cetera. Your team had a very significant working capital improvement on free cash flow in 2025. I think of like $3 billion to $4 billion, which I don't think a lot of people appreciated. Can you talk about how you're able to achieve that for this year? And then going forward, how much more efficiencies you can get on working capital as we think towards the end of the decade?
Yes. This has largely been with, I guess, coordination with our manufacturing group as we think about managing inventories across our platform. Just given the fact that we have center SKUs and compete in 170 countries, it's hard to get inventory correct. So we carry a large volume of inventory, making sure that we streamline our supply chains, a good focus on that. And then maybe the last comment I'll make about cash flow because I know we have to go is one thing that's not appreciated as we've gone through these cost reduction efforts, we have incurred a lot of cash cost, i.e., severance or selling of assets at below book value, sometimes.
So we've incurred cash outflows as we implemented these cost savings efforts. That will go away. We're getting close to the end of that. That is billions of dollars of cash flow that is outgoing that will dissipate over time that will enhance our cash flow.
$3 billion to $5 billion. I mean...
Yes, probably.
Understood. That's very helpful. Thank you so much. I really, really appreciate it.
Thank you so much for your interest.
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Pfizer — Jefferies London Healthcare Conference 2025
Pfizer — Jefferies London Healthcare Conference 2025
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Pfizer positioniert sich auf der London Healthcare Conference als Unternehmen, das kurz- bis mittelfristig durch Kostensenkungen und gezielte M&A die Auswirkungen bevorstehender Patentverluste (Loss of Exclusivity, LOE) abfedern will und mittelfristig (2029–2030) nachhaltiges Wachstum anstrebt.
🔍 Strategische Highlights
- Kosten: Ziel von rund $7,7 Mrd. Einsparungen, bis Ende des Jahres sollen etwa $4,5 Mrd. realisiert sein; Effekte zeigen sich auch in verbesserten Bruttomargen durch Produktivitätsgewinne.
- Fokus R&D: R&D-Restrukturierung mit Chris Boshoff an der Spitze, Schwerpunkt Oncology, Vaccines, Internal Medicine und Infektionen & Immunologie (I&I).
- Business Development: Zwei jüngste Transaktionen: 3SBio (Onkologie-Programme) und Metsera (Obesity-Plattform, monatliche Dosierung möglich); geringe zusätzliche CapEx-Erfordernis durch bestehende Fertigungsinfrastruktur.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Timing & Upside: Metsera-Assets werden als Plattform mit Peak-Wirkung nach 2030 eingeordnet; Medicare‑Abdeckung für Adipositas sieht Management als möglichen kurzfristigen Upside-Faktor; LOE‑Volumen ~ $17 Mrd. hauptsächlich 2026–2028.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Obesity-Strategie: Warum Metsera? Differenzierung durch mögliche monatliche Dosierung, verträgliches Profil und Kombinationsoptionen mit GIPR‑Antagonisten.
- Kapital: Ursprüngliches M&A‑Budget $15 Mrd.; nach Metsera bleiben ca. $5 Mrd. Verpflichtungsspielraum; Pfizer behält Disziplin, aber opportunistisch bei passenden Assets.
- Finanzwirkung: Diskussion zur Ertragswirkung der US‑Deals (z.B. MFN/Medicaid‑Rabatte) — Management nennt moderaten negativen Effekt, erwartet aber planbare Rahmenbedingungen; Tafamidis‑LOE 2028 bleibt Priorität für Optionen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Für Aktionäre bedeutet das: kurzfristig moderater Druck durch LOE und Preis-/Deckungsanpassungen, aber klare Maßnahmen (Kosten, selektive M&A, R&D‑Neuausrichtung), die Pfizer bis 2029–2030 wieder in Wachstumsmodus bringen sollen. Hauptrisiken: Ausführung, Wettbewerb im Adipositasmarkt und regulatorische/preisliche Unsicherheiten.
Pfizer — Special Call - Pfizer Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Good day, everyone, and welcome to Pfizer Pflash, a spotlight on the PD-1 VEGF bispecific PF-4404 clinical development strategy. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Francesca DeMartino, Chief Investor Relations Officer and Senior Vice President. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I'm Francesca DeMartino, Chief Investor Relations Officer. On behalf of the Pfizer team, thank you for joining us for the latest episode in our Pfizer Pflash Series. Today's call will be recorded and available for replay on our IR website at pfizer.com. As a reminder, our Pfizer Pflash series is intended to serve as an educational deep dive into our pipeline, products and people.
Each call will spotlight a specific product, therapeutic area or growth initiative and give you an opportunity to hear from and interact with our business leaders. Today's session will begin with a conversation followed by a live Q&A. As a reminder, this call is intended only for the investment community, including our sell-side analysts and institutional investors. If you are unable to join the entirety of the event, you can find the replay available on our IR website.
I want to note that on today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements. I encourage you to view Slide 2 in our presentation and the disclosures in our SEC filings, all of which are available on our IR website at pfizer.com. Forward-looking statements on the call are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties, speak only as of the call's original date, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of the statements.
With that, let's get started. Oncology is a key area of focus for Pfizer. In July of this year, we closed a licensing deal with 3SBio for global ex China rights to the bispecific antibody, SSGJ-707, which we will now refer to as PF-4404 or just 4404. In our last Pfizer Pflash, we provided an introduction to 4404 and promised to share an update on our clinical development plans. Today, we'll expand on that development strategy, which we believe has the potential to establish 4404 as a backbone therapy across multiple tumor types.
Before we kick off the main discussion, I'd like to take a moment to introduce our speaker, Jeff Legos, Pfizer's Chief Oncology Officer. In addition, Johanna Bendell, Chief Development Officer for Oncology; and Arati Rao, 4404's Franchise Head will participate in our Q&A. Jeff, Johanna and Arati, welcome, and thank you so much for joining the conversation today. Jeff, let's get started. Can you remind us what 4404 is, how it works and how it fits into Pfizer's broader oncology pipeline and portfolio?
Thanks, Francesca. Yes. I'm very happy to. 4404 is a bispecific antibody with potential transformative mechanism of action that may enable it to be a foundational therapy across multiple cancers. As shown on the left-hand side of the slide, at the heart of 4404 is its ability to target both PD-1 and VEGF. PD-1 is a key receptor that typically acts to prevent immune cells from attacking cancerous cells. VEGF, the other target of 4404, plays an important role in tumor blood vessel formation. We've seen that PD-1 and PD-L1 checkpoint inhibitors are amongst the most broadly impactful oncology medicines developed to date. Furthermore, emerging external Phase III data have shown that the combination of PD-1 and VEGF inhibition in a single molecule like 4404 has the potential to achieve superior efficacy versus PD-1 inhibition alone.
If these initial data achieved with PD-1 and VEGF mechanism of action can be proven out in global Phase III studies and in additional treatment settings and tumor types alongside an acceptable safety profile, these results can truly be transformational for patients with cancer.
Next slide, please. We believe that 4404 is a foundational asset and a strong seamless fit with Pfizer's oncology strategy. First, many of the cancer types where PD-1 VEGF bispecific may have significant impact are aligned with our established disease areas of focus. These include thoracic, genitourinary and gastrointestinal cancers. Second, 4404 is a multi-specific antibody, one of our 3 core modalities where we have deep experience and industry-leading capabilities. And third, there's an opportunity to explore combinations with our industry-leading ADC portfolio, including the Vedotin class of ADCs, where a growing body of clinical data show potential synergy with anti-PD-1 agents.
This strategic alignment is critical for our goal to develop 4404 into the leading PD-1 VEGF bispecific and establish it as a backbone therapy across multiple tumor types. We are laser-focused on developing 4404 with speed, with breadth and depth. Speed is facilitated by our robust global development capabilities with 7 new clinical trial initiations with 4404 expected in the near term as the first of many planned waves within our development strategy.
Breadth leverages our presence in multiple key disease areas where PD-1 and VEGF bispecific may have significant impact and underpins our plans to develop 4404 in multiple tumor types. Depth is driven by our unique blend of capabilities, focus and modalities to develop 4404 across multiple treatment settings, lines of therapy and in novel combinations within a given disease.
Thanks, Jeff. Let's double-click on capabilities and presence. Can you elaborate on how you see those contributing to Pfizer's development of 4404?
Certainly. If we can move to the next slide, please. Pfizer has many capabilities that leave us well positioned to create value with 4404, which we view as a foundational asset. A key part of our potentially differentiated 4404 strategy is the speed at which we can move in clinical development. For oncology, speed is not just the pace of work. It's about working smarter, leveraging our global scale and harnessing technology to enhance efficiency and innovation. We work smarter as an organization because of our team. Across our clinical and medical organizations, we have more than 50 medical oncologists who bring unparalleled experience and are empowered to make decisions and move quickly. These leaders, together with our understanding of regulatory and operations teams, make Pfizer an industry leader in innovative clinical design and regulatory strategies that bring potential new therapies to patients with cancer.
Our global scale and clinical operations and supply provide us with the agility in global clinical development. In addition to our global clinical footprint, we have 10 manufacturing and clinical trial supply sites on 3 continents, including 4 in the United States. These networks and colleagues allow us to execute our clinical development plans nimbly and with the highest quality.
Highlighting our unprecedented speed, here are a few of the many achievements which we have made in the last 3-plus months since closing the licensing deal. First, we have submitted 5 new INDs with the FDA. We've worked diligently to select over 500 global clinical trial sites for our 4404 studies in more than 25 countries. And finally, we've accelerated time lines for a tech transfer and have successfully manufactured 4404 drug product here in the United States.
Thanks, Jeff. Let's bring some of those concepts together and talk about the near-term plans for 4404's clinical development.
Absolutely. Let's move to Slide 7, please. Here, we show our first wave of planned near-term clinical trials, starting with our Phase III pivotal studies. These will be the first Pfizer-sponsored studies for 4404. Already on clinicaltrials.gov, these include a study in frontline non-small cell lung cancer, including both squamous and non-squamous histologies and one in frontline metastatic colorectal cancer. Beyond these pivotal trials, we plan to initiate 5 additional studies with near-term starts. In lung cancer, these include a Phase I, Phase II study to evaluate 4404 in combination, including with some of our ADCs as well as a Phase II, Phase III study in frontline extensive small cell lung cancer. In GI, we plan to initiate a Phase I, Phase II study in hepatocellular carcinoma. And in GU, we have 2 planned Phase I, Phase II studies. One, evaluating 4404 in locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma and the second one in locally advanced or metastatic renal cell carcinoma.
Importantly, these 7 anticipated near-term study starts are only the beginning of our plans for 4404. We're actively working through a second wave of potential development opportunities that could deal trial starts for another 10 additional indications and 10 or more novel combinations before the end of 2026, which is a good segue to how we're thinking about our depth of development across settings, across lines of therapies, including novel combinations.
Next slide, please. We're aiming to make 4404 a key part of our future oncology arsenal by displacing the current standard of care PD-1 and PD-L1 and VEGF agents with a new PD-1 VEGF bispecific backbone therapy across multiple tumor types. In parallel, we plan to look across lines of systemic therapy to potentially establish a new generation of chemotherapy sparing regimens by a combinations of 4404 with potentially synergistic antibody drug conjugates. And we plan to look at opportunities to expand 4404's reach to impact patients even earlier in their treatment journeys, such as in the neoadjuvant and adjuvant settings.
So Jeff, on the planned Phase III program design, how is Pfizer engaged with health authorities. And how have those discussions shaped the path forward?
It's an excellent question. Let's move to Slide 10, please. We've been very thoughtful in our engagement with health authorities and have aligned on our global Phase III studies in non-small cell lung cancer and metastatic colorectal cancer. The goal of these discussions was to establish a framework through which we can position the 4404 development franchise to move with both maximum rigor and speed. Included in this framework are 4 core principles that we believe are consistent with the evolving health authority expectations and that may serve as a template for future 4404 pivotal trials.
Firstly, we'll make overall survival a primary endpoint, either alone or a dual primary with progression-free survival. Secondly, we'll include at least 20% enrollment of U.S. participants and appropriately diversify outside of that to achieve representation of our global patient population. Third, our Phase III programs will be enabled by a robust dose optimization studies in line with the U.S. FDA's Project Optimus. And lastly, we'll look to engage the FDA and global health authorities for pre-Phase III advice to inform optimal trial design and execution. While these may seem straightforward, their effective and efficient implementation has the potential to meaningfully differentiate the speed and success of our clinical trials, both in the near term and beyond.
Great. Let's now transition to the 4404 clinical data, starting with lung cancer. Lung cancer remains a significant unmet medical need, but not all lung cancer is the same. Can you discuss the opportunity for new therapies and the broader market segmentation.
Sure. If we can move to Slide 12, please. Let me start with some of the epidemiology. Lung cancer continues to pose a significant global health burden with over 2.7 million new diagnoses expected globally for 2025. In the United States alone, this includes approximately 315,000 incident and newly recurrent cases. Despite a decade of declining death rates, the 5-year survival across stages is 32% for non-small cell lung cancer and only 9% for small cell lung cancer. This underscores the urgent need for continued innovation in early detection and treatment strategies across lung cancer, a large and growing market that's expected to be approximately $70 billion by 2030.
On Slide 13, this shows the segmentation of lung cancer, highlighting that this tumor type is not a single disease, but rather a collection of multiple molecularly distinct diseases. This segmentation helps to stratify patients and is the foundation of precision therapy selection. The 2 primary histologic subtypes are non-small cell lung cancer, which makes up approximately 85% of the cases and small cell lung cancer accounting for the remaining 15%.
Non-small cell lung cancer is further divided into distinct subtypes, squamous and non-squamous histology with the non-squamous population being roughly threefold larger than squamous. Historically, the squamous cell histology has been more difficult to effectively treat. Additionally, PD-L1 expression has become a critical biomarker for guiding immunotherapy decisions in non-small cell lung cancer. This is typically determined through what is called tumor proportion score, or TPS, which measures the fraction of cancer cells in a tumor that express PD-L1. Historically, higher TPS scores have been shown to predict better outcomes with immune checkpoint inhibitors. TPS scores greater than 1% are categorized as PD-L1 positive, accounting for approximately 2/3 of cases and a TPS score of less than 1% are categorized as PD-L1 negative, accounting for the remaining 1/3.
Within the non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer, there's another tool to help define distinct molecular subtypes. This looks at the genetic drivers of cancer bucketed into the actionable genomic alterations, including EGFR, ALK, BRAF V600 and KRAS. The presence of these mutations often prioritizes targeted small molecule therapies over immunotherapy as the first line of treatment.
That's really helpful context. So data for 4404 plus chemotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer were recently presented at the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer meeting, or SITC. Can you share the highlights of that presentation?
If we can move to Slide 14, please. Last week's presentation at SITC was from an open-label randomized Phase II trial of 4404 in combination with chemotherapy as the first-line treatment in advanced non-small cell lung cancer. This study is being conducted in China by 3SBio and was designed to evaluate the safety, tolerability and antitumor activity of 4404 in combination with chemotherapy. This was a head-to-head trial with the standard of care tislelizumab, an anti-PD-1 and leading approved agents in China in combination with chemotherapy. Patients of both histologies were enrolled irrespective of PD-L1 TPS score. Part 1 was a chemotherapy combination with a dose escalation of 4404 in patients with non-squamous tumors versus Tislelizumab plus chemo combination arm.
Part 2 was a similar design for patients with squamous disease and included both a dose escalation cohort A and a dose expansion cohort B. The 10-milligram per kilogram dose was selected for Cohort B. The efficacy data from non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer patients are shown on Slide 15 and are suggestive of deep and durable responses with a confirmed objective response rate that was numerically higher for 4404 in combination with chemotherapy across both dose levels.
As shown in the left panel, the confirmed objective response rate for 4404 plus chemotherapy was 50% at the 5-milligram per kilogram dose and approaching 60% for the 10 mg per kilogram dose compared to 40% for the Tislelizumab combination therapy. The depth and durability of response for patients receiving 4404 at the 10-milligram per kilogram dose is shown in the spider plot on the right.
Each line represents an individual patient and shows tumor shrinkage from baseline with the lines going down are good. In addition, you can see that many of the lines continue to further deepen and stay there, reflecting a deepening of this response over time and providing an early glimpse of the response durability. We're particularly encouraged by the efficacy for the 10-milligram per kilogram dose group, which has informed the planned Phase III pivotal start and will also be the focus of today's discussion around these Phase II results.
On Slide 16 are the efficacy data in the squamous histology group. Let's start with Cohort A in the top panel. The results for patients receiving 4404 at the 10-milligram per kilogram dose are suggestive of durable responses independent of PD-L1 expression. The depth of response is shown in the waterfall plot in the left panel. These plots represent tumor shrinkage from baseline with longer downward bars reflecting a larger decrease in tumor size. These data correspond to a confirmed overall response rate of 75%.
The spider plot on the right shows tumor shrinkage over time. Again, we see most of the lines going down and tending to stay down over the period of evaluation. This provides an early glimpse of the durability of responses even in patients having the harder-to-treat squamous cell histology. And if we look at the panel on the bottom of the slide, these are data from the dose expansion cohort B, which started subsequent to Cohort A and therefore, has considerably shorter duration of follow-up at the time of the data cutoff.
Nonetheless, even with very limited duration of follow-up, we continue to see encouraging early response rates in patients receiving 4404. Next slide, please. The observed safety profile shown here on Slide 17 was generally consistent with the known safety profiles of chemotherapy combined with PD-L1 and angiogenesis inhibitors. The most common treatment-related adverse events are listed on the left-hand side of the slide in order of decreasing frequency in patients receiving 4404. The aggregate frequencies are shown on the right, in purple for 4404 plus chemo groups and in gray for Tislelizumab plus chemo groups. The hematologic adverse events were the most common type for both arms, consistent with the chemotherapy regimen. In total, Grade 3 and higher treatment-related adverse events were observed in 39% of patients receiving 4404 at the 10-milligram per kilogram dose level versus approximately 33% in patients receiving the Tislelizumab combination therapy.
These grade 5 treatment-related adverse events occurred in patients receiving 4404 at the 10-milligram per dose level and in 1 patient receiving the Tislelizumab combination. Importantly, treatment-related adverse events leading to drug discontinuation were low. Overall, these Phase II data are supportive of the promising efficacy and manageable safety profile for 4404 in combination with chemotherapy for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer, independent of tumor histology and independent of PD-L1 expression. These results build upon the encouraging monotherapy for 4404 presented at ASCO earlier this year and strengthen our confidence in the selected dose for the planned Phase III pivotal trial.
And based on the data you just recapped, what's next for 4404 in lung cancer?
Supported by this very encouraging Phase II data, we've worked with health authorities to design a single global Phase III study of 4404 plus chemotherapy in both squamous and non-squamous cell lung cancer. The design of this trial is shown here on Slide 18. It will enroll patients with locally advanced or metastatic disease who have no known actionable genomic alterations and who have not received prior systemic therapy for advanced or metastatic disease. Both PD-L1 positive and PD-L1 negative patients will be eligible.
Patients will be divided into 2 cohorts based on histology and randomized to receive chemotherapy in combination with either 4404 or pembrolizumab. After the initial number of treatment cycles, patients will continue with maintenance therapy. The study is designed to enroll about 700 participants in the squamous cell histology cohort and about 800 participants in the non-squamous cohort. The dual primary endpoints of the study are progression-free survival and overall survival.
If successful, we believe this study could support potential approvals in the first-line setting for both squamous and non-squamous histology, non-small cell lung cancer. As I previewed earlier, our plans with 4404 also extend in the extensive stage small cell lung cancer.
If we flip now to Slide 19, we'll see the design of our planned Phase II/III trial in this indication. This study will begin with a Phase II open-label cohort evaluating 4404 in combination with chemotherapy. If the data from the Phase II part of the study are supportive, we'll then rapidly and seamlessly move into a Phase III double-blind randomized portion. Here, we will evaluate the combination of chemotherapy with either 4404 at the Phase III dose or the anti-PD-L1 monoclonal antibody, atezolizumab. The primary endpoint of this trial will be overall survival.
If successful, we believe this study could support potential approval for 4404 in first-line extensive stage small cell lung cancer and together with our non-small cell lung cancer study, support our broader ambition to displace traditional checkpoint inhibitors in the lung cancer treatment paradigm.
Thanks, Jeff. To conclude, could you provide an overview of how your plans for 4404 fit within the broader lung cancer portfolio?
Absolutely. If we could just move to Slide 20, please. So here, we could see a summary of our approved medicines on our late-stage lung cancer agents currently in development. Starting at the top, we have our approved targeted small molecule medicines. These include our BRAFTOVI and MEKTOVI combination, which is approved to treat BRAF V600E metastatic non-small cell lung cancer and Lorbrena, which is approved for ALK-positive metastatic non-small cell lung cancer. Beyond our targeted small molecules, we are also developing 4404 as well as the antibody drug conjugates, SV and PDL1V. Shown in the darker blue are the ongoing Phase III trials for SV and PDL1V in non-small cell lung cancer.
The second-line study of SV in non-squamous disease with any PD-L1 status is anticipated to read out next year. In addition, we've recently initiated both a frontline study of SV in patients with TPS high disease and a histology-agnostic second-line and later study with PDL1V. There are also future opportunities for SV in the first-line setting in patients with PD-L1 low or PD-L1 negative tumors.
We've just detailed our Phase III frontline studies for 4404 in both small cell and non-small cell lung cancer. However, we can also see the potential for 4404 in earlier settings of non-small cell lung cancer treatment. And of course, there's the Phase I, Phase II study that I mentioned earlier, where we plan to begin exploring 4404 in multiple combinations, including those with our antibody drug conjugates, where we have a growing body of data suggestive of potential synergy when combined with anti-PD-1 therapy.
Thank you for that great recap of our lung cancer strategy, Jeff. Shifting gears, can we now speak about the colorectal cancer for which Pfizer is also pursuing a near-term Phase III start for 4404?
If we could advance to Slide 22, please. Like lung cancer, colorectal cancer represents a significant unmet need and a substantial opportunity for new therapies. It's one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers globally with more than 1.5 million new diagnoses expected in 2025 alone.
It's the second most frequent cause of cancer-related death in the United States. And despite recent advances, it continues to remain difficult to treat. This is particularly true in the metastatic setting where the 5-year survival in the United States is a dismal 16%. Through our development of 4404, we hope to improve outcomes for patients with colorectal cancer and expand our leadership in a large and growing marketplace that has a projected 2030 size of around $9 billion.
Great. And then next, could you speak briefly about how metastatic colorectal cancer is classified and treated and the areas of the market where Pfizer is aiming to make an impact.
Sure. If we could just move to Slide 23. Here, you can see that treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer or metastatic CRC for short, is guided by various tumor characteristics and genetic markers. When considering unresectable or metastatic CRC, first-line treatment typically involves systemic therapy with regimens that include chemotherapy, biologics, targeted therapies and/or immune checkpoint inhibitors.
Therapeutic regimens are driven by the molecular profile of the tumor being treated. One way in which metastatic CRCs are classified is by microsatellite instability or MSI high status. MSI high patients typically have deficient DNA, mismatch repair systems and represent approximately 5% of metastatic CRC. These patients are often treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors as MSI high status is a key biomarker to help predict response to these therapies.
The remaining 95% of patients are classified as microsatellite stable and are typically treated with anti-EGFR or anti-VEGF therapy. These patients will be the focus of our planned 4404 Phase III studies in metastatic CRC and as we will test dual anti-VEGF anti-PD-1 regimen, including an anti-VEGF monoclonal antibody. Metastatic CRC tumors are also classified by genetic mutations or amplifications focusing on where Pfizer medicines are having an impact, there are V600E mutations, which affect about 8% to 10% of patients with metastatic CRC. And there are also HER2-positive metastatic CRC, which represents about 3% to 5% of CRC patients. With 4404, we aim to improve patient outcomes by building a diverse franchise that can attack tumors from multiple angles.
Okay. Great. Thanks for that overview, Jeff. Can you next speak a bit about the data that supports your plans for 4404 in metastatic colorectal cancer.
Sure. If we turn to Slide 24. Here, we could see some of the data which were presented at the recent European Society of Medical Oncology Meeting last month. These data come from a Phase II trial in China conducted by 3SBio, evaluating 4404 in combination with chemotherapy in patients with treatment-naive metastatic CRC. Patients with an MSI high status were excluded from this study. The results are shown from a cohort of patients receiving 10 milligrams per kilogram of 4404 every other week in combination with a modified FOLFOX chemotherapy regimen, which is the regimen we plan to take forward into Phase III.
We observed encouraging antitumor activity in this study with a greater than 57% confirmed objective response rate and greater than 95% disease control rate achieved with our planned Phase III regimen. On the left, you can see the depth of the responses with longer downward bars reflecting larger decreases in tumor size. And in the spider plot on the right, you can see the data capturing durability with many responses ongoing at the time of the data cutoff.
If we move to Slide 25. Here, you can see data highlighting the manageable safety profile of 4404 plus chemotherapy in the Phase II study. In the interest of time, I'll highlight that with our planned Phase III regimen, we saw no grade 3 or higher immune-related adverse events and no treatment-related adverse events leading to 4404 discontinuation or death.
Looking across all dose regimens in the study, the proportion of patients with grade 3 or higher immune-related adverse events and treatment-related AEs leading to 4404 discontinuation or death were very low at 2.3%, 1.1% and 2.3%, respectively. Together with the encouraging anticancer activity observed in this study, these results support our plans to evaluate 4404 plus modified FOLFOX in the Phase III trial.
Could you please expand a bit on the design of the planned Phase III study?
Of course. If we could just advance to Slide 26, please. Here, we can see an overview of our planned study in first-line metastatic colorectal cancer. The study, which is currently posted on clinicaltrials.gov, is a global double-blind Phase III trial evaluating 4404 against the anti-VEGF monoclonal antibody bevacizumab both in combination with modified FOLFOX. Similar to the Phase II study, this trial will exclude patients who are MSI high, focusing on the population of patients where PD-1, PD-L1 checkpoint inhibitors have historically shown limited benefit. This study is designed to enroll about 800 participants and has dual primary endpoints are progression-free and overall survival.
If successful, we believe this study could support a potential approval in first-line metastatic CRC as well as our broader ambition to displace traditional anti-VEGF therapy in the metastatic CRC treatment paradigm.
Thanks, Jeff. This has been a very informative discussion. So to summarize our conversation today, I would say Pfizer Oncology is aggressively moving forward with an ambitious development plan to unlock value for our foundational asset, 4404, aiming to generate data that could, pending clinical and regulatory success, make it a backbone treatment across multiple cancer types. At a high level, several parts of today's conversation stand out. First, 4404 is a seamless fit with Pfizer's oncology strategy, leveraging our deep expertise in both the development of multi-specific antibodies and in relevant disease areas. And the global development plan builds on a truly global R&D presence.
Second, a three-pronged strategy is in place to execute the development plan. Speed is exemplified by 7 planned near-term clinical trial starts, including 2 Phase III studies in the first of many planned waves. Breadth is demonstrated by the multiple tumor types in these planned near-term trial starts. And depth encompasses multiple treatment settings, lines of therapy and the evaluation of novel combinations with our leading ADC portfolio within a given disease area. Third, we continue to be rigorous in our approach to 4404's development, utilizing encouraging clinical results to make data-driven decisions and create an enabling framework for interactions with health authorities so that 4404 program may progress with both maximum rigor and speed. And finally, the tumor types encompassed by the 4404 development plan are not only grounded in Pfizer's current commercial presence, but also represent attractive opportunities in disease areas with a large unmet medical need.
This is highlighted by the initial pivotal programs in lung and colorectal cancers, which are large and growing markets that may reach approximately [ $70 billion and -- $9 billion ] by 2030, respectively. We'll now begin the Q&A session with Jeff, Johanna and Arati. And as a reminder, our Pfizer Pflash series is designed as an educational deep dive into our pipeline programs. I'll therefore, kindly ask participants to keep questions focused on 4404 and the data and development plans discussed today and avoid questions that would require us to provide forward-looking financial projections. While we're happy to clarify any information we shared during the presentation, we will not be offering estimates beyond what has already been communicated.
Thank you for your understanding. With that, we're ready to take the first question. Operator, if you could please assemble the queue. And Jeff, I'll turn it over to you to lead us through it.
[Operator Instructions]
Our first question comes from Geoff Meacham with Citibank.
2. Question Answer
This is Nishant on for Geoff. So my question is on the class overall. The PD-1 VEGF class is kind of becoming crowded in lung cancer. So beyond hitting the primary endpoints, are there any specific features on the final -- like a label like superior safety or efficacy in key subgroup or even dosing convenience that you believe will be essential for achieving like dominant market share.
Thanks, Nishant. And maybe I'll start and then turn it over to Johanna. So as mentioned, right, the trials are designed for superiority with what we believe to be a very clinically meaningful improvement in both progression-free survival and/or overall survival or overall survival alone based on the exact design of the trial. I think with respect to how we intend to differentiate here, I think we showed a few examples of combinations with standard of care and then ultimately, kind of the next wave of innovation will move into novel combinations.
So we believe through both very rapid and clinically meaningful improvements in our endpoints, we believe that will help us to differentiate as well as the novel combinations. But Johanna, I'll turn it over to you to share a little bit more with Nishant how you're thinking about how else to enhance the label and success.
Thank you so much, Jeff, and thank you so much for the question. I think, first of all, when we think about how we ideally combine with our Pfizer portfolio and the next wave of innovation that Jeff was mentioning, we are really excited, in particular, about looking at combinations with our antibody drug conjugates. We're thinking about not only non-small cell lung cancer, but potentially other areas where Pfizer non-ADCs are sitting in terms of the standard of care.
I think also in terms of subgroups that we would be thinking about, for certain, our trials will be planned for subgroups that we are considering to be able to preplan these and bake them into the clinical trial design. So as you see the clinical trials coming forward and if you want to understand a bit better the subgroups that we're looking at, you'll see those within not only the Phase IIIs, but also within the exploratory trials that we're doing, so you can see different populations that we're looking for.
We're always excited to try to think about bringing treatment earlier in the cancer setting to have even more efficacy for our patients. When we think about safety, we've seen a differential where 2 antibodies, if we give a PD-1 inhibitor and a VEGF inhibitor separately, we may have issues in terms of being able to maximize the efficacy for patients based on safety differentials that we see by giving 2 separate antibodies. And one thing that we're very excited about with the combination of the bispecific is that we're happy -- we're excited to localize the treatment effect more to the tumors to potentially decrease the safety issues that we could potentially see by treating with both a PD-1 and a VEGF antibody alone. And then we're also very interested in tying into our trials, the patient-related outcomes to make sure that we're really seeing benefits for our patients, not only in terms of overall efficacy that we see within the clinical trials, but also in how they're feeling.
Our next question comes from Steve Scala with TD Cowen.
I have a few questions. Do you think Phase III results in lung cancer will set the upper bound for efficacy for PD-1, VEGF, the whole class across tumors. And what overall survival hazard ratio do you need to see in lung cancer to be convinced that this class has transformative potential across tumors? So that's the first question.
Second question is, is it possible that big centers will have competitive PD-1 VEGF trials ongoing. Some theorize the reason KEYTRUDA had such a successful clinical trial program is that they got the best patients at each center. If you believe that is true, then how can Pfizer enjoy that same advantage.
Thanks for the question, Steve. And I'll try to capture them. And if we miss any, just remind me. So I think your first question with respect to will the Phase III results in lung cancer set the overall benchmark, so -- across multiple cancers. So I think we recognize that lung cancer has been one of the more immunogenic cancers where patients have responded to anti-PD-1.
So we believe this is an important first place to study the medicine, and it's the area where we have the largest proportion of Phase II data. But we also recognize that every cancer is different and every combination is different, which is why we have a very broad and deep development plan because we don't expect to just extrapolate the results from one cancer to another. And as you're well aware, colorectal cancer and non-small cell lung cancer are very different with respect to how patients respond to anti-PD-1 or PD-L1 therapies.
In terms of the clinically meaningful benchmarks, I would just reiterate the point that I made previously and that here, we are designing our studies based on the sample sizes that were shown to exhibit both a clinically meaningful and statistically significant benefit for patients with respect to our time to event endpoint.
I think your last question was around sort of clinical trial sites and potentially getting the best patients. I think the best patients aren't necessarily representative of real-world patients. But that being said, I think this is where the breadth and the depth of our expertise across a wide range of cancers, including non-small cell lung cancer and colorectal cancer, will already help us in terms of having this established clinical trial footprint and deep relationships with these investigators.
And we have already identified more than 500 clinical centers who we have worked with across all of our previous studies who have confirmed their willingness to participate in these upcoming Phase III clinical trials. So we will believe -- we believe that we will be able to sort of reach and target patients that are truly representative of those which we are seeking an indication in, including both the United States, Europe and Asia. Thank you for the question.
We'll go next to Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.
As I think about kind of the competitive landscape kind of following off of Steve's question, we saw some data for the competitive Summit asset at ESMO. Maybe put into context that data and how you think your asset will be able to compete and really show that this is the PD-L1 VEGF bispecifics?
And secondarily, when you were evaluating potential assets to in-license, what were some of the unique features of this antibody that drove you to ink the deal?
And maybe I'll ask Arati Rao, who's our 4404 franchise lead for this molecule to comment a bit on maybe some of the preclinical data and then what specifically excited her during diligence and then currently with respect to the clinical portfolio, where now, I think, more than 650 patients have already been treated with 4404. So Arati, over to you.
Thank you, Jeff. Thanks, Evan, for the question. So in terms of the preclinical data, I will tell you that the unique tetravalent structure or a tetrabody that 707 or 4404 is what attracted me when I first began looking at this package. This tetravalent structure allows for each arm to simultaneously bind PD-1 and VEGF together. In the presence of VEGF, 707 forms multimers. And this multimerization or daisy chaining as we call it, is what allows for increased affinity for PD-1 and then that leads to increased binding of PD-1 by almost 10x. The fully functional VEGF arm on this molecule is really interesting, and it actually -- not only does it drive angiogenesis, anti-angiogenesis, it also creates an -- inhibits this immunosuppressive environment that we see in the TME. All of these preclinical data really kind of attracted us towards it. The VEGF inhibition was a little more differentiated from some of the other molecules that we had seen. That's all I could say.
The second piece of this question that you had was how are we differentiating from some of the data that we saw at ESMO this year? And I'm guessing you're referring to the HARMONi-6 study in squamous non-small cell lung cancer, where ivonescimab was combined with chemotherapy combined -- versus Pembro plus chemotherapy. And what I'll tell you is that in our 98 -- we had 125 patients treated with squamous non-small cell lung cancer, 98 of those patients were treated at the 10 mg per kg Q3 week FDA aligned dose now.
And when we compare our small data set with the 260-some patients in the HARMONi-6 arm, you can see that the overall response rate is similar in terms of the -- is very similar. Our follow-up is -- needs to be longer because we are a little slower -- I mean, they're further ahead in development. But when it comes to the toxicities, it seems like the VEGF-related toxicities, the [ all-rates, ] hemorrhage, hemoptysis, et cetera, are very similar between the 2 arms. So as we kind of expand into larger data sets, we expect that these will bear out, and we'll see really good efficacy and toxicity with our molecule.
Our next question comes from David Risinger with Leerink Partners.
This is Jason Zhuang on for Dave. I have 2 questions, please. So first of all, following up on the differentiation of 4404. Could you please provide a road map for potential validation of the superior efficacy and specifically key readouts to watch in coming years that establish the differentiation versus other bispecifics? And second, given product licensing agreement with 3SBio, please remind us about the economics for Pfizer and 3S and how Pfizer will book financials on the income statement.
Thanks for the question, Jason, and maybe I'll start by addressing the first one and then maybe ask Francesca to come back in on the economics for the 3SBio deal. So first, you talked about the road map here. And I just want to remind the audience that this deal didn't close until sort of late July, early August this year. And I am incredibly pleased and proud with the speed that we were able to execute on a lot of the activities that we shared with you just over the past 3 months.
And if we think about what has been accomplished by then, we were able to sort of transfer all of the data from our colleagues at 3SBio, prepare these 7 regulatory documents, filed the 5 INDs and now are well equipped to have these 7 near-term study starts, not to mention the tech transfer and the ability to sort of complete the first drug product manufacturing here in the United States.
So the first part of the road map is obviously the 7 near-term study starts that we've highlighted today. In terms of data readouts, we will continue to follow the additional patients for both depth and durability from the ongoing Phase II trials that 3SBio has already started.
The next part of our road map, as mentioned during the presentation, is up to 10 additional trials starting in 2026 and up to 10 additional novel combinations starting in 2026. So continuing to build upon the momentum that we've already started just over the previous 3 months.
If we think about the kind of the overall trial readouts, most of these studies are Phase III studies with time to event endpoints of progression-free survival and overall survival. So I would just refer you to clinicaltrials.gov and look at the primary completion date as to when you could expect this data to become available. And maybe to your second question on the overall 3SBio economics and/or deal terms, maybe I can invite Francesca to speak on that.
Yes, I can take it, Jeff. Okay. So thanks for the question. So this is a pretty traditional structure. So they're eligible to receive milestone payments associated with certain development, regulatory and commercial milestones. I think those were all disclosed upfront. And yes, so that's pretty much the structure. So there's also tiered double-digit royalties on sales of 707, which we're now calling 4404. So if you want to reference, I think we disclosed those all in the initial press release, a pretty traditional structure.
Next question, please.
I think we're actually -- Jeff, I can close it because I think we're -- that was -- no, there's one more, I apologize. We just saw in the queue.
We'll go next to Chris Schott with JPMorgan.
This is Ethan on for Chris Schott. Just maybe broadly, can you talk about how you think about the relative opportunities with 4404 either alone or in combo with chemo versus kind of the opportunities you have in combination with your ADCs and kind of in the context of increased competition with just the VEGF bispecs?
Yes. Thanks for the question, Ethan. And I'm happy to start just with a broad overview, and then I'll pass it over to Johanna. So as mentioned earlier, for both non-small cell lung cancer and colorectal cancer, despite the progress with chemotherapy plus or minus immunotherapy in lung cancer plus or minus bevacizumab in colorectal cancer, both of these represent a significant unmet medical need. And both of these represent a pretty rapid path to the initial approvals and development because they are simple add-on trial designs.
So you're combining on top of the standard of care to hopefully improve, displace or replace the existing chemotherapy regimens and/or in combination with 4404. As we think about the novel combinations, this is where the breadth and the depth of our portfolio represents a significant and unique opportunity for us to differentiate. So maybe, Johanna, I'll turn it over to you to share a little bit more as to how you're thinking about the next wave of opportunities.
Thanks so much, Jeff, and thanks so much for the question. I think one thing we're particularly proud of at Pfizer in terms of our antibody drug conjugates is data that we've seen combining the Vedotin antibody drug conjugates with immune checkpoint inhibitors. We've already seen proof of this in the combination with our molecule Padcev and pembrolizumab, where we see improvement in the immunogenic potential of a PD-1 inhibitor, particularly when combined with a Vedotin payload rather than a TOPO1 payload. So we're hoping to not only take advantage of that Vedotin ADC, but also with our novel targets for the Vedotin ADCs, such as integrin beta-6 with our SV molecule and PD-L1 with our PDL1V molecule.
We also see across the spectrum of different tumor types, areas where both anti-angiogenic approaches and immunotherapy approaches work. And we're very excited for this molecule because we think that we have the potential to improve hitting both of these pathways. And so as we start to think about the broad potential of these molecules being able to hit both of these pathways harder and potentially with less toxicity, we can think about a lot of different tumor types that could potentially benefit from this, not only in combination with our Vedotin ADCs, but also in combination with other treatments such as the standard of care that Jeff was alluding to as well as potentially with single agent.
Okay. Great. Jeff, that was our last question. So I will -- I just want to thank Jeff, Johanna and Arati again, for joining us this morning. This was a really comprehensive overview. And for those of you that have dialed in and our sell-side analysts, thank you so much for your time and your engagement. And I hope everybody has a wonderful week, and we will see you and talk to you soon. Everyone can disconnect. Thank you so much.
This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.
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Pfizer — Special Call - Pfizer Inc.
Pfizer — Special Call - Pfizer Inc.
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Takeaway: Pfizer präsentiert die Entwicklungsstrategie für PF‑4404, einen PD‑1 (Programmed Cell Death Protein 1) / VEGF (Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor) Bispezifischen Antikörper, als potenziellen Backbone über mehrere Tumorentitäten. Management betont Tempo (7 nahe Studienstarts, inkl. 2 Phase‑III), Breite und Tiefe der Kombinationen, ermutigende Phase‑II‑Signale und globale Zulassungs‑Abstimmung.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Programm‑Scope: Erste Welle: 7 nahe Studienstarts (einschließlich Frontline NSCLC und metastasiertem CRC); zweite Welle: bis zu 10 weitere Indikationen und ≥10 Kombinationen bis Ende 2026 geplant.
- Design‑Prinzipien: Phase‑III mit Dual‑Primary Endpunkten (Progressionsfreie und Gesamtüberleben), ≥20% US‑Einschluss, Dosisoptimierung gemäß FDA Project Optimus.
- Kompetenzen: 5 INDs eingereicht, Tech‑Transfer und erste US‑Herstellung abgeschlossen; >500 klinische Sites in >25 Ländern; Fokus auf Kombinationen mit Vedotin‑ADC (antibody‑drug conjugates).
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Phase‑II‑Daten: China‑Daten zeigen in NSCLC bestätigte ORR ~50% (5 mg/kg) und ~60% (10 mg/kg) vs 40% für Tislelizumab+Chemo; squamös Cohort A ORR 75%. In mCRC (10 mg/kg + mFOLFOX) ORR >57%, DCR >95%.
- Sicherheit: Grad ≥3 therapiebedingte AEs bei 10 mg/kg: 39% vs ~33% Comparator; mCRC‑Regime zeigte keine Grad‑≥3‑immune‑AE in geplanten Dosisdaten.
- Programm‑Start: Single global Phase‑III in NSCLC (≈700 squamös, ≈800 non‑squamös) und globales Phase‑III mCRC (~800) mit OS/PFS Endpunkten.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Differenzierung: Analytiker forderten klare Labels‑Treiber (Überlegenheit, Subgruppen, Sicherheit, Dosierung); Management setzt auf schnelle, klinisch bedeutsame OS/PFS‑Vorteile und nachfolgende neuartige Kombinationen zur Differenzierung.
- Wettbewerb/Sites: Bedenken, ob Top‑Zentren Patientenselektion begünstigen; Pfizer betont 500+ bestätigte Prüfzentren und globale Repräsentativität.
- Technik & Deal: Preklinisch einzigartig: tetravalente Struktur → Multimerbildung erhöht PD‑1‑Bindung (~10x). Ökonomik mit 3SBio: Meilensteine + gestaffelte zweistellige Lizenz‑Royalties.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: PF‑4404 ist ein früher, aber schnell vorangetriebener Franchise‑Kandidat mit überzeugenden Phase‑II‑Signalen und einem klaren Plan für breite Phase‑III‑Programme. Für Aktionäre gilt: hohe Upside bei positiven OS/PFS‑Daten und klarer Differenzierung; Risiko bleibt in späteren Phase‑Ergebnissen, Sicherheitsprofil im Vergleich zur Klasse und erfolgreichem Marktzugang.
Pfizer — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, everyone, and welcome to Pfizer's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded.
At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Francesca DeMartino, Chief Investor Relations Officer and Senior Vice President. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Good morning, and welcome to Pfizer's earnings call. I'm Francesca DeMartino, Chief Investor Relations Officer. On behalf of the Pfizer team, thank you for joining us. This call is being made available via audio webcast at pfizer.com. Earlier this morning, we released our results for the third quarter of 2025 via a press release that is available on our website at pfizer.com. I'm joined today by Dr. Albert Bourla, our Chairman and CEO; and Dave Denton, our CFO. Albert and Dave have some prepared remarks, and we will then open the call for questions. Members of our leadership team will be available for the Q&A session.
Before we get started, I want to remind you that we will be making forward-looking statements and discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. I encourage you to read the disclaimers in our slide presentation, the press release we issued this morning and the disclosures in our SEC filings, which are all available on the IR website on pfizer.com. Forward-looking statements on the call are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties speak only as of the call's original date, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of the statements.
With that, I will turn the call over to Albert.
Thank you, Francesca. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. The past few months have been pivotal for Pfizer. We are really excited about our future and confident that we are in a strong position to continue delivering value for patients and our shareholders. Our third quarter performance shows how we continued to execute with discipline and focus even while taking on major strategic efforts. I will discuss highlights including our agreement with the U.S. government, which has provided greater clarity of our strategic investment in future innovation and growth. Additionally, with our proposed acquisition of Metsera and the progress we have made since closing our licensing agreement with 3SBio and key upcoming catalysts, the strength of our R&D pipeline continues to grow.
Our landmark agreement with the U.S. government was an important milestone because it removes uncertainty on 2 critical policy fronts. We successfully addressed the administration's call to lower prescription drug costs and [ online ] prices with those in other developed countries, and we will have a 3-year grace period from certain U.S. tariffs with our commitment to further invest in manufacturing in the U.S.
Now I want to address our proposed acquisition of Metsera. We believe that Novo Nordisk offer is illusory and cannot constitute superior proposal under the terms of our merger agreement with Metsera because it violates antitrust laws and there is a higher risk, it will never be consumed. We are encouraged by the U.S. Federal Trend Commission's decision to grant early termination of the HSR waiting period, which is unprecedented during a government -- down and clears the path to completing this transaction following the Metsera shareholder vote on November 30. With the pending legal action we have taken to enforce and preserve Pfizer's rights under the [ Metsera ] agreement, you understand that we will be limited in the details we can address further during today's call. What I can say, it is that our belief in the promise of the Pfizer and Metsera combination is strong and unwavering, we are confident it will create substantial value for shareholders and advance innovation to bring important medicines to patients in the high-growth therapeutic area of obesity. Plus, we believe Pfizer will have distinct advantages in developing and delivering new potential treatments because of our proven scientific and commercial strengths.
Our R&D infrastructure has global rigs and extensive experience running clinical trials in large populace. Our commercial teams have well-established capabilities in bringing primary [ care ] therapies to patients. We have proven we can drive leading clinical commercial and strategic momentum with key cardiovascular brands such as Eliquis, Lipitor, Norvasc and the Vyndaqel family, and we plan to execute in a similar way with Metsera as we reinvigorate Pfizer's cardio metabolic presence.
The licensing agreement with 3SBio is another way we have strategically enhanced our pipeline. Encouraging Phase II first-line metastatic colorectal cancer efficacy and safety data for SSGJ-707, the PD-1 VEGF bispecific was shared last month at the European Society for Medical Oncology meeting. Looking ahead, we are excited to present additional clinical data at the upcoming Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer meeting. We are also encouraged by our discussions with regulators about our plans to unlock the potential of 707 with a robust clinical development progress. As we look forward to executing with 707, Pfizer has distinct advantages. We have deep experience in the development of multi-specific antibody therapeutics and the ability to leverage unique combination regimens that make this promising cancer immunotherapy candidate a strong complement to our oncology portfolio.
We've also made progress in advancing other key programs in our late-stage R&D pipeline. This was reinforced by our presence at ESMO last month, with over 45 abstracts, 5 late-breaking presentations and recognition in Presidential Symposium. Starting with the Presidential Symposium, new Phase III data demonstrate that PADCEV in combination with pembrolizumab, reduced the risk of recurrence and death by at least half for patients with [indiscernible] ineligible muscle invasive cancer when given before and after surgery. This is the first and only regimen to improve survival when used before and after standard of care in this patient population. With this unprecedented data in hand, we see the potential to substantially increase the U.S. addressable population with approximately 18,000 patients under the current label immetastatic [indiscernible] cancer. And if there are further positive data -- approved, up to approximately 22,500 additional patients across both [ CIS ] eligible and CIS-ineligible muscle invasive bladder cancer.
We also presented follow-up results from the PHAROS single-arm Phase II clinical trial supporting BRAFTOVI and MEKTOVI as a standard of care for patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer harboring BRAF V600E mutation. This updated analysis showed a substantial median overall survival benefit of 70 -- of 47.6 months in treatment-naive patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer with a BRAF V600E mutation. We are pleased with the continued strong year-over-year growth of Braftovi and Mektovi with a 30 percentage point increase in new patient starts since the October '23 launch. We believe the results from the PHAROS trial could establish a new benchmark with targeted combination therapies for its population of patients. These results fortify the strength of our growing lung cancer portfolio that includes small molecules, ADCs and our 707 bispecific. We are confident in our potential to deliver treatments across the lung cancer spectrum, a large and growing market expected to reach approximately $70 billion by year 2030.
We also presented final overall survival results from the Phase III EMBARK trial evaluating XTANDI in combination with [indiscernible] and as a monotherapy in nonmetastatic hormone [indiscernible] prostate cancer with high risk biochemical recurrence. As the first and only ARI based regimen to demonstrate overall survival benefit in this population, these results highlight the potential benefit of XTANDI in this earlier line treatment setting. This strengthens our position for a product but is experiencing strong demand growth in hormone-sensitive prostate cancer and a rapid uptake in the approximate 16,000 U.S patient population with non-metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer with high-risk biochemical recurrence.
I want to mention another update about our program in sickle cell disease. We are very pleased that last month, the FDA concluded that Pfizer may resume enrollment of [indiscernible] studies outside of sub-Saharan Africa and in individuals who have not relocated from sub-Saharan Africa. We are still engaging with regulatory authorities to determine possible next steps for [indiscernible] . We look forward to sharing more details in the months ahead about our key pipeline catalysts for 2026 in the coming years.
With disciplined execution and our continued focus on key products, both in the U.S. and key international markets, we continue to build on our leadership position within our commercial portfolio. Our Vyndaqel family of products achieved 7% year-over-year global operational growth in the quarter. Strong demand reinforced that this is the foundation of treatment for patients with a hard condition of ATTR cardiomyopathy, helping them live longer and avoid hospitalization. We are encouraged by our continued strong market leadership. In International, we achieved 40% growth in the quarter in total patients on treatment. In the U.S., our continued double-digit demand growth reflects strong diagnostic efforts, broad access and favorable affordability dynamics.
Nurtec continues to lead with the oral -- to lead the oral CGRP class in primary care penetration in the U.S. In international, we achieved growth with continued strong uptake in key markets. Globally, we achieved 22% year-over-year operational growth in the quarter. We are pleased that our new consumer campaigns continue to perform well and our team has been effective in sharing new compelling clinical data with health care profession.
PADCEV, another market leader in our portfolio, achieved 13% year-over-year global operational growth in the quarter. PADCEV, in combination with pembro, continues to expand utilization and has been established as a standard of care first-line treatment for patients with locally advanced metastatic urothelial cancer.
Our vaccines portfolio is a key area of focus in international markets. We are pleased with the strong performance of the Prevenar family, driven by -- gains and launches in several key markets. We achieved 17% year-over-year international operational growth in the quarter, Pfizer is the pediatric pneumococcal vaccination leader with public funding secured in about 140 national immunization programs around the world. After launching in the majority of key international markets, Prevnar Adult is the established leader among adult pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. In the U.S. where we did experience a year-over-year decline in the quarter, we are pleased with the overall performance of Prevenar -- for adults, Prevnar held a market-leading position and grew with the expanded recommendation for adults over 50. In the pediatric market, accounting for about 60% of Prevenar revenues in the U.S., we experienced a delayed timing of government bulk order, which we have seen from time to time. So it's a question of time.
I want to provide an update about the next-generation PCV program. While we previously guided to a Phase III start of our adult 25 [indiscernible] program in 2025, we are planning to start the study next year if the FDA aligns with our approach. For our pediatric program, we expect fourth dose data from our ongoing Phase I/II study early next year and pending positive data and regulatory feedback, we have the potential to start both Phase III programs in 2026, streamlining our development approach and aligning with our strategy to provide a single vaccine across age groups. We are committed to maintaining leadership in the PCV space. And as a reminder, our [ 25 valent ] vaccine candidate has the potential for improved immunogenicity for -- [ type 3 ], which is one of the largest remain contributors of pneumococcal disease -- type 3 alone is estimated to close approximately 20% of invasive disease in the 65-plus population in the U.S. and EU.
ABRYSVO also achieved significant international momentum with 75% year-over-year operational growth in the quarter due to expanded access in key markets. In the U.S., we are experiencing the headwind of a more difficult to activate population as we enter the third season of RSV. Still, we are continuing to strengthen our position with a 59% market share in the U.S. in [indiscernible] dose volume in this quarter.
From the significant strategic milestones we have achieved in recent months to our solid financial performance during this quarter, we are demonstrating how we are building for long-term value with near-term execution of our 2025 strategic priorities. By committing to focus simplification and leveraging technology across our business, we are accelerating progress and improving productivity. In the quarter, we achieved another strong gross margin performance. Additionally, we were able to deliver adjusted diluted EPS that was ahead of expectations significantly even with lower infection rates contributing to a revenue decline in our COVID-19 portfolio. Our business is performing well and we are raising the range of our adjusted diluted EPS guidance for full year 2025, while also remaining committed to our dividend.
And with that, I'll turn it over to Dave.
Thank you, Albert, and good morning, everyone. To begin this morning, I'd like to highlight that our solid financial performance directly reflects [ our disciplined ] execution of our key strategic priorities. We continue to prioritize enhanced patient outcomes as well as the achievement of our financial objectives. Furthermore, our recent agreement with the U.S. government demonstrates our ability to navigate in a complex external environment. Our cost improvement measures have driven greater operational efficiency and streamlined decision-making, which is evident in the solid operating margins for this quarter. Year-to-date, margins expanded despite the unfavorable impact of the acquired in-process R&D from the 3SBio transaction.
Going forward, we expect to improve our cash flow and increase flexibility across our 3 capital allocation pillars. Our focus remains on creating long-term shareholder value. We will continue to invest in our business for the long term, evidenced by our recent business development activity while prudently returning capital to our shareholders.
Now with that, let me start with our third quarter results, and then I'll touch on our cost improvement initiatives as well as our capital allocation priorities. I'll finish with a few comments on our 2025 guidance, which continues to improve as we move throughout this year. For the third quarter of 2025, we recorded revenues of $16.7 billion, a decrease of 7% operationally versus the same period of last year. That's largely driven by a decline in our COVID products. The decline was primarily due to PAXLOVID, which experienced reduced demand from lower levels of disease incidents as well as last year's onetime PAXLOVID government stockpiling recorded in Q3 of '24 and, to a lesser extent, Comirnaty. With that said, our non-COVID products performance was solid, growing 4% operationally versus the same period of [ LY ].
On the bottom line, third quarter 2025 reported diluted earnings per share was $0.62, and adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.87, ahead of our expectations due to our overall gross margin and cost management performance. I'll point out that this profit performance includes a headwind of approximately $0.20 of acquired in-process R&D from the 3SBio transaction. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of our refined commercial strategy. We remain committed to prioritizing key products and markets, optimizing the global allocation of our commercial field resources and concentrating our market efforts on high priority areas.
We saw a solid contribution across our product portfolios, primarily driven by Eliquis, the Vyndaqel family and Nurtec, but it was more than offset by declines in PAXLOVID and Comirnaty. Through the first 9 months of '25, Pfizer's recently launched and acquired products delivered $7.3 billion in revenue while growing approximately 9% operationally versus last year. This lower growth rate in the third quarter as compared to Q2 was primarily driven by the timing of pediatric CDC shipments of Prevnar and a onetime favorable impact in Q2 for Seagen products transitioning to a wholesale distribution model in the U.S. We plan to continue to invest behind these 2 product groups to drive the future performance and help enable the company to largely offset our LOEs over the next several years.
Gross -- adjusted gross margin for the third quarter was approximately 76%, primarily reflecting the product mix in the quarter and continued strong cost management within our manufacturing footprint. As a reminder, over the past 2 years, our adjusted gross margins have generally remained in the mid- to upper 70s, excluding Comirnaty, which has a 50-50 profit split with our partner, BioNTech. We expect $1.5 billion in savings from Phase I of the manufacturing optimization program by the end of '27 to support our long-term operating margin expansion goal. Going forward, cost management across our manufacturing network remains a top priority.
Total adjusted operating expense were $7 billion for the third quarter of '25, an increase of 21% operationally versus LY, driven in large part by the acquired in-process R&D expense for 3SBio. Excluding the 3SBio deal, adjusted operating expenses contracted by approximately $150 million versus last year. And looking at the components, adjusted SI&A expenses decreased 3% operationally, primarily driven by focused investments and ongoing productivity improvements that drove a decrease in marketing and promotional spend for various products, adjusted R&D expense decreased 3% operationally as well, driven by a net decrease in spending due to pipeline focus and optimization, including the expansion of our digital capabilities. And finally, acquired in-process R&D expenses increased $1.4 billion, largely resulting from the 3SBio deal.
As our adjusted SI&A and R&D expenses demonstrate, we continue to be disciplined with our operational expense management. Q3 reported diluted earnings per share was $0.62, and our adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.87, which benefited from our efficient operating structure. Additionally, EPS was aided by our effective tax rate, primarily driven by favorable changes in jurisdictional mix of earnings and tax benefits related to global income tax resolutions in multiple jurisdictions spanning multiple years, partially offset by the aforementioned 3SBio acquired in-process R&D charge. We continue to be disciplined with -- expense management, progressing multiple cost improvement programs as we remain focused on driving operating margin expansion over the coming years.
Phase I of the manufacturing optimization program contributed savings in the third quarter. In addition, we remain on track to deliver on our goal of at least $4.5 billion in cumulative net cost savings from our ongoing cost realignment program by the end of this year. As a reminder, in total for these programs, we expect approximately $7.7 billion in savings by the end of '27 to drive operational efficiencies, strengthening our business with the potential of contributing significantly to our bottom line over this period. Of these savings, approximately $500 million identified in R&D will be reinvested in the pipeline, which we expect by the end of 2026.
With that, now let me quickly touch upon our capital [ allocation, which ] is designed to enhance long-term shorter value. Our strategy consists of maintaining and growing our dividend over time, reinvesting in our [indiscernible] the appropriate level of financial returns and making value-enhancing share repurchases. In the first 9 months of this year, we returned $7.3 billion to shareholders via our quarterly dividend, invested $7.2 billion in internal R&D and invested approximately $1.6 billion in business development transactions, primarily reflecting the 3SBio licensing deal.
As a reminder, our business development capacity after the 3SBio deal is approximately $13 million. In the third quarter, we announced a planned acquisition of Metsera for approximately $4.9 billion with additional contingent value rights tied to successful pipeline progression. The transaction is expected to be funded through a mix of available cash as well as debt. We expect the deal to be dilutive through 2030 as we continue to invest to enable further promising late-stage pipeline assets. Specifically, we currently expect the Metsera transaction to be approximately $0.16 dilutive to 2026 adjusted EPS. Additionally, we expect another $0.05 of dilution in '26 from the 3SBio deal, which closed in the third quarter. With that said, we believe the 2 deals set up a strong potential revenue growth trajectory in 2030 and beyond.
And lastly, through the first 9 months of '25, operating cash flow was approximately $6.4 billion, which includes the $1.35 billion upfront payment for the 3SBio transaction. Our gross leverage at the end of the third quarter was approximately 2.7x. That said, upon the close of the Metsera transaction, our leverage is expected to be above the 2.7x target. We expect to bring our leverage back down to the target levels over time to continue to support a balanced allocation of capital between reinvestments and direct return to shareholders.
Now let me turn to our full year 2025 guidance. As Albert noted in September, we reached a new voluntary agreement with the U.S. government that will help ensure U.S. patients pay lower prices prescription medications while providing the clarity we need to focus on our business and our investments in future innovation. The agreement has no impact on our 2025 guidance, but we expect a dilutive impact to our 2026 financial outlook. We continue to expect full year 2025 revenues to be in the range of $61 billion to $64 billion. Non-COVID products continue to perform very well operationally and ahead of our plan. However, we note there is softness in our COVID products due to lower vaccination rates and COVID infection rates. In addition, our guidance assumes a favorable impact to revenues from foreign exchange rates.
Furthermore, we now expect adjusted R&D to be in the range of $10 billion to $11 billion and our effective tax rate to be approximately 11%. Additionally, adjusted SI&A remains unchanged. Now given our strong performance to date and our fourth quarter outlook, including our more efficient cost structure, we are raising and narrowing our full year 2025 adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance by approximately $0.08 at the midpoint to $3 a share to $3.15 a share. I'd like to emphasize our adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance substantially derisked the current lower-than-anticipated COVID trends.
In closing, we remain committed to enhancing the value of our product portfolio and advancing innovation to further strengthen our pipeline. With a stronger balance sheet, we plan to continue deploying capital effectively. We aim to boost R&D productivity with digital tools, including AI, prioritize investments in key R&D programs and to deliver new growth through business development. Furthermore, our performance continues to exceed expectations and deliver strong results even as the incidence of COVID remains low. This consistent performance highlights our resilience and commitment to excellence. Regardless of the challenging external environment, our efforts to enhance cost efficiency and generate improvements in operating margins by driving productivity and optimizing processes.
Lastly, with the recent agreement with the U.S. government, we can now focus on executing our strategy and our strategic priorities across our business to deliver new medicines for patients and enhance long-term shareholder value.
I'd like to just close by noting that it is our expectation that we'll provide guidance for 2026, most likely by the end of this year. So with that, I'll turn it back over to Albert and we'll begin our question-and-answer session.
Thank you, Dave. So operator, please assemble the queue.
[Operator Instructions] First question comes from Vamil Divan with Guggenheim Securities.
2. Question Answer
I'm going to have to defer the Metsera questions to other analysts, but curious here what you say there. I'll just ask a couple more on the commercial side. So one, [indiscernible] obviously, facing more competition there. Surprised to see the performance there was a little sequential declines. So maybe you can just comment on the pricing and sort of market share dynamics you're seeing in that space, obviously, with the new competitors?
And then similar question on PADCEV, obviously, great data that you shared at ESMO. The commercial uptake for the quarter, lease a little bit less than we thought. So maybe just how you expect most invasive indication, assuming you get that. You're soon to impact uptake of that program and kind of drive [ upside or the numbers are right now ].
Thank you. Aamir?
Sure. Thanks for the question. So let me start with your question on Vynda. And I'll just -- I want to level set a couple of things about Vynda, and then I'll talk about the performance in the quarter. So there's obviously new competition in the category. And it's important to note that Vynda is still the only ATTR-CM product that has statistically significant reductions in both mortality and CV-related hospitalizations together and as a stand-alone. And it's also the only product where there is a once-daily capsule, placebo-like safety and near complete ETR stabilization. We've got 90% access for [ Vyndamax ] across the U.S.
Now with regards to the quarter, there are a couple of different dynamics that are happening. First of all, we saw a very strong demand growth, and that's reinforced by our continued market share leadership, both on a TRx basis, clearly, but also in terms of first-line share. Now that volume growth was offset by 2 gross-to-net headwinds. One is the IRA manufacturer rebates, which we've talked about before. And the second is what we alluded to last quarter, which is payer contracting that took place in the third quarter. So Vyndamax is performing exactly where we thought it would and consistent with what we guided. And performance continues to reflect strong diagnosis, broad access, improving affordability dynamics, and that's going to continue to grow our volume.
We are seeing competition that previews taking some first-line share from treatment-naive patients and [ Ambutra ] has driven minimal switching to date. And as we kind of look forward on Vynda, we'll see some of these dynamics continue into Q4 as well, where we expect continued volume growth, but the 2 GTN drivers that I described will certainly impact our net sales, but Vynda is performing in the way that we expected.
On your question with regards to PADCEV, we're, again, very encouraged by how PADCEV is doing. For us, when you look at this through 2 lenses, first is the [ AliMUC ] population where we currently have about 55% share among cisplatin ineligible patients and 45% to 50% share among cisplatin eligible. So there is headroom for us to continue to focus on that segment of the market. I think your question with regards to how PADCEV performed on consensus is related to the comment that Dave made, which is as part of integrating the Seagen products into the Pfizer portfolio. In Q2, we moved from a drop ship model to a wholesaler model. So that resulted in a onetime growth in our Q2 sales. So you have to grow products off of that adjusted for 2 to 3 weeks of inventory. So as we cycle into Q4, we expect the whole CGN portfolio, including PADCEV to return to growth.
And then finally, on MIDC, we're excited about the possibility as a result of both the 303 and also 304 trials that are ongoing, and that will open up a patient population of close to 22,000 patients to help with the [indiscernible] of PADCEV.
Thank you, Aamir.
We'll go next to Dave Risinger with Leerink Partners.
Congrats on the performance in the quarter. So my question is on Metsera. Could you just comment on the legal process ahead? I know that Pfizer is arguing that Novo's acquisition of Metsera would be anticompetitive. And even if the FTC doesn't allow it, it could be -- competitive. So could you just talk us through the clock and the process for courts to hear Pfizer's arguments?
Thank you, Dave. As I said in my opening comments, it is very difficult for us to start commenting when we have all these legal issues ending, right, as we speak. But I will repeat what I did say, which is kind of an answer to your question, not on the timing, but we don't see how Novo's deal can be superior. It is an illegal attempt by a foreign company to do an end run around antitrust laws, taking advantage of the government -- down. What they want to achieve, not to get the products, [ to destroy them ]. What they want is to cut and kill an emerging competitor, which is a significant antitrust concern given Novo's dominant market position. So all I can say with this that we are continuing to pursue all legal resources.
Next question, please.
We'll go next to Asad Haider with Goldman Sachs.
I guess just for Albert and Dave, just a quick high-level question on BD. What's the plan of Metsera doesn't work out for some reason? And then second, on 2026, any early framing on guidance pushes and pulls, specifically on how we should think about OpEx with and without Metsera? And then any additional color on how to think about the dilution you mentioned from your recent MSM deal with the administration?
I will send the question today because there are a lot of financial also elements and then if Andrew wants to add something on the [ BD deal. ]
Yes. So maybe we'll start with business development. Obviously, the company has still significant resources to understand and how to deploy successfully transactions to bring science in-house, and we will continue to work aggressively to do so across all of our 4 therapeutic areas, and we continue to work across the globe to identify potential candidates for acquisition to help bring new and innovative patient medicines to patients. So that's still a very ongoing focused activity for the company.
I think it's probably a little early to talk exactly about 2026. You heard me give a little color in the sense that clearly, we're making investments today and those investments carry over into '26 and beyond with either Metsera or 3SBio to bring these innovative medicines to market. Those will have a slightly dilutive effect to our operating performance next year. We will then wrap all that together with the puts and takes of '26 when we give guidance by the end of this year.
Anything to add on BD, Andrew?
Yes. I mean, I'd echo what Dave said, we are very active in all geographies, especially in China. You saw the 3SBio, which adds a foundational asset to become the backbone across multiple indications. And the same is true in China and beyond across all the main therapeutic areas. We've increased the size of our team in China, in particular, and we have very active efforts and we have something to inform you, you'll certainly be the first to know.
We'll go next to Geoff Meacham with Citibank.
I guess 1 for Albert or Dave. When you look at the manufacturing investments you're making as part of the MSM agreement, relative to the operational cost efficiencies, how would you rank those as priorities? I guess, both seem to have 3-year time frames. I'm just trying to get a sense of the incremental dollar and the strategy there.
Yes. Clearly, there are important elements of our strategy. We're going to clearly invest in the U.S. from a production perspective. We're working now to work through our plans with the new agreement with the U.S. government on how to effectively deploy our capacity here in the U.S. and further build it out. So more to come. We will also provide some color to that when we give guidance for 2026. But we will be able to improve our operating manufacturing operating infrastructure and at the same time, invest in manufacturing here at the U.S. and those 2 are not necessarily completely in conflict with one another. We'll be able to do both.
Next question.
We'll go next to Courtney Breen with Bernstein.
Thank you so much for answering our questions today. I really wanted to understand and perhaps another question on Metsera but from a different angle. I wanted to understand, in your mind, what factors supported Pfizer in garnering that unprecedented early termination of the waiting period from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission? That would be really helpful.
I'm not sure I understood the question.
The FTC clearance.
Why the FTC clearance?
Are there any factors that drove the early...
If there are any factors? No, I think the FTC made their own decision. Of course, they were aware of these questions. So I don't want to speak for them, but they decided that it is appropriate in the middle of a foreign attempt to [ supervening ] to just release our deal, which is now clear. So that's all.
I think it does further demonstrate the strength of our deal and the pathway to clearance and the pathway for us to be able to further develop these products and take them to the marketplace in a very rapid fashion. This is helpful to patients long term as helpful to prices long term under our management and our direction with these assets.
Yes. And should not be surprised, right? Because we all understand that's the epitome of antitrust conflict. The entire pipeline of Metsera is the entire pipeline of Novo plus they have a dominant position with the current products that they have. Of course, [indiscernible] would worry about that. I don't want to speak for themselves, but it is something that it is everybody understands.
All right. Next question, please.
We'll go next to Terence Flynn with Morgan Stanley.
Maybe 2 for me. You've previously talked about [indiscernible] being a key driver for you over the long term. We noticed that [ Magnetism 5 trial ] was pushed out data into 2026. We know J&J had a similar trial in a similar patient population that just read out. So maybe you could just remind us of any potential differences here in terms of your trial versus their trial and why there might be a difference in timing given they started around the same time?
And the second question is just a clarification on PAXLOVID dynamics for the quarter. It looks like by our math, price per script went up over last quarter. So just wondering if there's any onetime items that we need to think about here as we think about the trends in the fourth quarter.
All right. Chris?
Thanks for the question. So [ Machinism 5, as ] you know, is double class exposed, possibly later this year, beginning next year is an [ event-driven study ]. So timing could shift due to events not happening, which we cannot speculate. But as you can imagine, that's often positive [ if events are not happening in ] the study. So we'll just continue to follow the events and hopefully report early next year.
Yes. And on the PAXLOVID question, I don't think there's any material change in price. We have -- maybe there's different channels, mix and things of that nature, but nothing significant from that standpoint.
Thank you for clarifying, Dave. Let's go to the next question.
We'll go next to Akash Tewari with Jefferies.
I had a question on your upcoming Phase III [ EZH2 ] readout in CRPC. I'm surprised the study isn't more prominently flagged given the potential to extend the [ XTANDI ] franchise. What drives your confidence that you're getting adequate target exposure after examining some of your [ food effect ] studies. And also, what's your expectations around overall survival? Could we see a 20% to 30% benefit here?
Chris, that's for you.
Thank you very much for the question. This is another first-in-class internally discovered program, our EZH2 program. We've previously shared randomized data, which we showed significant PFS benefit in all comers and late-line metastatic [ astration-resistant ] prostate cancer. And we now have 3 Phase III studies ongoing. The first 1 will read out, to your point, is post [ aderaterone ], metastatic hormone-resistant prostate cancer and that we expect in the coming months. We recently also presented data at ASCO. [ Randomized date ] on the food effect to your question, which was 875 milligrams twice a day with food, and it showed that the data are compatible with the dose we now use in Phase III with reduced [ GAEs ]. So we are confident in the dose that was selected.
We'll go next to Kerry Holford with Berenberg.
Just on the guidance [ for this year ]. You've clearly reiterated the total revenue range [ of 61 to 64. ] And when you first [indiscernible] that guidance, you spoke of total [indiscernible] sales of around $9 billion for the year, seeing that you booked only around [indiscernible] before year-to-date. Just interested in your comments on whether that [indiscernible] achievable for the full year? And if not, what other assets would you call out as likely to fill that gap and give you confidence to reiterate the total sales guidance?
Thank you. Dave, please?
Yes. On the -- you're absolutely right, Kerry, as you pointed out. I would say that to the low end of our guidance range from a revenue perspective would assume that the COVID franchise continues a very modest uptake for the balance of this year, particularly in the U.S. However, as you know, the COVID franchise is subject to peaks and valleys. If there happens to be a wave of COVID in the next several months, you can see utilization spike up. So that's why the range is so large. I'll just point out that what we have done with an earnings per share guidance range is we derisked the COVID franchise with the guidance that we provided given that if the trends continue, we'll be closer to the low end of that range, and we will still be able to deliver on our earnings commitment.
Thank you, very clear, Dave. Let's move to the next question, please.
We'll go next to Mohit Bansal with Wells Fargo.
Just wanted to understand the thought process around the pricing of the GLP-1 and this class of medicines, given that, I mean, even today, there's a news article out there suggesting the price could be $150 or so. So it seems like the price is only going in 1 direction. In that case, I mean, how do you justify the price that you're paying to Metsera? And in general, the [ OBC ] landscape over time, how do you think about that with this pricing decline for the class?
[ Yes. Thank you. ] This is also competition brings prices down. And of course, they try now to or strict competition. But anyway, the -- yes, we, in our calculations, we have taken into consideration that the prices of GLP-1s probably will start going down. So I don't know what will be announced now. But in our calculations, we took already that into consideration. .
Let's go to the next question, please.
We'll go next to Alex Hammond with Wolfe Research.
Can you elaborate more on the reason for the delay to the initiation of the pivotal trial for the adult 25 [indiscernible] program? You'd mentioned a caveat of if the FDA aligns with your approach. So is the [indiscernible] of the dialogue change to the FDA? Is there a chance that surrogate endpoints may no longer be approvable?
Thank you very much. Chris?
Yes. Thank you for the question. Across all our vaccine programs, we're obviously working very closely with the FDA and other regulators on the design of the study and also the end point. [ PCB 25 ] pending positive data and FDA feedback, we -- as mentioned, we intend to start that study as well as the pediatric 25 valent program next year. So it means we will align the pediatric in the adult study. We expect the [ full dose data ] from the pediatric study early next year. So that helps us to coordinate the 2 studies that we'll just make it easier. The [ 25 vaccine ] candidate covers 25 serotypes, particular need to point out serotype 3, which we did before because the vaccine is designed with significantly enhanced immunogenicity against serotype 3, which currently constitutes up to 20% of infections in the U.S. and the EU. And to continue our leadership, we also continue to study our fifth generation with 30-plus serotypes, which will update you on more in 2026. Thank you.
Thank you, Chris. Operator, the next question, please.
We'll go next to Chris Schott with JPMorgan.
Just maybe 2 -- questions. First 1 is kind of bigger picture. As you think about MFN on new launches over time, what are you thinking about this suggesting for international revenues? Is this -- I guess, I could read this as a net positive, [ that you get higher ] price. [ I can read is net negative ] because reimbursement hurdle is going to be tougher at these higher prices. [indiscernible] how you kind of envisioned what plays out with international as you signed that deal?
And then the second 1 is just trying to get a little bit more color on the MFN impact for 2026. I think you mentioned some dilution there. But just any more quantitative metrics you could provide just like how much of a headwind is that for next year?
Yes. I'm sorry if I ask Dave to tell you which he will tell you, he will provide guidance at the end of the year. And that will incorporate everything, including that and the other things that you heard us talking. So I don't think you will get more words out of our mouth, [indiscernible].
But on the new launches in international, of course, we are waiting to see how things may play. The price differential is not sustainable. We are speaking about the smaller basket of countries in international that are affected by that. And with these countries, we are hoping that they will understand that they need to change the way that they price their product going forward. Of course, a little bit help from the U.S. government and [ USTR ] through trade negotiations also can make that happen. And my assessment is that [indiscernible] the U.S. trade representatives are highly, highly committed to make [ this go away ]. So we will see how that plays. But in theoretical, if the prices over there are -- they are not -- we are not [indiscernible] way of pricing our products, clearly, we will not get reimbursement there and to price them to the price that will not affect the U.S. pricing.
Let's -- thank you. And now let's go to the next question, please.
We'll go next to Umer Raffat with Evercore ISI.
First on Metsera, I realize this is perhaps in the hands of your M&A lawyers and antitrust lawyers. But from an R&D perspective, can we make sure you'll be evaluating all the new data that's imminent? For example, the monthly transition and how the GI tolerability holds as well as even more importantly, the [indiscernible] combo data. And then separately, I was very intrigued by a Phase IIb trial you guys initiated on an oral drug in atopic derm. Could you confirm if it's a [ STAT ]6 inhibitor? And were you able to gauge the magnitude of STAT6 inhibition Phase I?
[indiscernible] Metsera is easy if they provide us data or if they publicize data. Of course, we will -- we are eager [ to see there ]. And we believe it will be positive. On the second question, I will ask Chris to comment.
Thank you. [indiscernible] a question regarding our [indiscernible] portfolio. I just want to check, are you referring to [indiscernible]
I don't think you [indiscernible]
Okay. So you are correct, that is a [ stat ] inhibitor. I want to point out that we currently have a very differentiated [ I&I ] portfolio with at least 5 molecules in-house discovered and developed. Most of these at a significantly accelerated speed, including obviously [ P4TL1a, ] which we codevelop -- which is being codeveloped with Roche, which covers [ IL-12 then IL-23 ] [indiscernible] [ 2 trispecifics covering IL-4, IL-13, TS now IL-33, ] both of those now entering Phase II for atopic dermatitis and for other TH2-related diseases. [indiscernible] with the ongoing Phase III trial in [ nonsegmental Vitiligo ], which is [ a JAK 3 ] tech inhibitor, also differentiated in-house. And then the [indiscernible] early, just entering Phase II could be potentially first in class oral. We currently further optimizing dose and formulation and hope to update you on that program in 2026. Thank you.
Next question.
We'll go next to Steve Scala with TD Cowen.
Two questions. What does the drug pricing deal with Trump allow Pfizer to do that other companies will not be able to do other than, of course, AstraZeneca?
And secondly, on Metsera, so the data looks more similar than different than competitors and Metsera disclosures haven't been completely transparent raising serious questions. Many other big cap pharmas have passed over Metsera when pursuing other products validating the [ me-too ] point. Nothing and all this justifies a bidding war or even a protracted legal battle. Is Pfizer's determination to persist underpinned by substantial confidentiality data -- confidential data or simply the desire to be a player in obesity? Or does Pfizer agree with the points that I just said and could it just walk away?
Thank you, Steve. On the first one on the drug prices and what we have that other companies may not have. I can't answer because I don't know what the other companies are having. As you know, the discussions are between the administration and individual companies, which also ensures that there is no antitrust issues. And also, of course, there are confidential because that's also what the administration and the agreements for [ tray ] that we should keep confidentiality of those. So I know what we are getting. Some of that has been public and some of that is part of the overall very lengthy deal, but I don't know what others will take.
On the Metsera. Look, we have seen the data we did extensive due diligence, and we priced the asset into a price that we thought offers tremendous value to the shareholders of Metsera and to shareholders of Pfizer because those assets that we like in our hands, of course, will provide significant competitive adds. What you see now it is, I repeat, an effort to [indiscernible] our disemerging competitor, which is Pfizer. And to do that by evading the antitrust scrutiny and [indiscernible] get control -- the [indiscernible] control of the company as they will become the major shareholder and the major creditor without any regulatory study. So that's all I have to say. And I'm -- we will see how things to go.
Let's move to our next question, please.
Next question comes from Evan Seigerman with BMO.
Assuming Metsera closes, what near-term factors must you consider to continue growing the dividend and then delevering, Dave, as you had said? When do you think you may be able to also start to repurchase shares? Or is that less of a priority with all this BD?
Evan, very good question. Obviously, you've seen us over the last 1.5 years or 2 years really lean into productivity across our platform. That productivity has allowed us to delever from roughly 4x to 2.7x. That's given us increased flexibility to do both business development as well as maintain and grow our dividend over time. That cycle of improvement in productivity is something that we've now embedded in the company. We will continue to do that. We will continue to do that across the enterprise. We will continue to prioritize ourselves from an R&D perspective.
Clearly, we have several assets that we think are key to the growth of this company by the end of the decade. We are going to invest behind those assets from a pipeline perspective. And we're going to invest behind the categories of products that we've either acquired and/or recently launched because those will ultimately allow us to offset the LOEs over the next several years. So we'll be able to do all of that. Share repurchases is an important lever for us. In the near term, it's not a tool that we're going to use. We have to get the balance sheet back to where we need to be. And we -- again, we have business priorities that come in the forefront of that at this point. Great question. Thank you.
Okay. So now I think let's get the last question.
Our last question comes from Rajesh Kumar with HSBC.
Two questions, if I may. I appreciate you cannot say a lot about Metsera at this junction. Just from a modeling perspective, if we are thinking of additional balance sheet capacity for deal making, how much capacity would you assume assuming that you are keeping some capacity away from Metsera at the moment in 2026 on your own internal budgeting. That would be really helpful.
And just on the 3SBio, I appreciate the deal has just closed, and some of the trials have just started. When can we expect to see data news flow come out of that deal? Is it more a 2027 event? Or do we have any interim readout or update in '26?
Thank you. I think Dave can answer the Metsera [indiscernible]
Yes. So as you think about BD capacity, as I said in my prepared remarks, we have approximately $13 billion of capacity as we enter here into the third quarter. So with that...
Chris, let's understand 3SBio.
Yes, the data flows. So just a reminder at ASCO 2025, we shared Phase II monotherapy or [ shared by Phase ] II monotherapy data and first-line non-small cell lung cancer showing the overall [indiscernible]. At ESMO, Phase II combo data plus chemotherapy, [indiscernible] modified [indiscernible] was shown for first line metastatic [ station ] -- sorry, metastatic colorectal cancer, and that was showing a response rate of close to 60%.
At [ SITC ], we'll provide additional data combination data in lung cancer. You've just seen, we posted 2 Phase III programs starting now this year in first-line non-small cell lung cancer and in first-line colorectal cancer. And in the coming weeks, we'll also provide the full development plan to you [ at event, ] and that will be -- show the broad -- the breadth and the depth of our clinical development program for 707.
Thank you, Chris. So thank you very much all for your attention. We have been successful in achieving a series of significant strategic milestones. We delivered a solid performance during the quarter, and we are confident in our business and that's why [ we are ] raising the rates of our adjusted diluted EPS. And of course, we maintain our [indiscernible] revenue despite the lowest COVID right now trends.
So thank you for your interest in Pfizer, and I hope you have a wonderful week.
This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.
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Pfizer — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Pfizer — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: $16,7 Mrd (−7% operativ YoY; Rückgang vor allem wegen schwächerer COVID‑Produkte).
- Bereinigt EPS: $0,87 (Adjusted diluted EPS), berichtetes verwässertes EPS $0,62 — Ergebnis über den Erwartungen.
- Marge: Adjusted Gross Margin ~76% (starkes Margenprofil trotz Produktmix).
- Kerngeschäft: Nicht‑COVID Produkte +4% operativ; neu gestartete/akquirierte Produkte lieferten YTD $7,3 Mrd.
- Bilanz: Operativer Cashflow YTD ~$6,4 Mrd; Bruttoheblung ~2,7x.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- US‑Abkommen: Vereinbarung mit US‑Regierung schafft politische Klarheit und beinhaltet Verpflichtungen zu Investitionen in US‑Fertigung (3‑Jahres‑Gnadenfrist gegenüber bestimmten Maßnahmen).
- Akquisition & Pipeline: Metsera‑Übernahme (~$4,9 Mrd) soll Pfizers Position im Bereich Adipositas/Cardio‑Metabolik stärken; 3SBio‑Lizenz ergänzt Onkologie‑Pipeline (PD‑1/VEGF‑bispezifisch 707). Rechtliche Schritte und HSR‑Entwicklung limitieren Detailangaben.
- Produktivität: Kostensenkungs‑ und Fertigungsoptimierung mit Ziel ~4,5 Mrd Einsparungen bis Jahresende und ~7,7 Mrd bis Ende 2027; Teilreinvestitionen in R&D (~$0,5 Mrd).
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Umsatz‑Guidance: Volles Jahr 2025 weiterhin $61–64 Mrd.
- EPS‑Guidance: Bereinigtes verwässertes EPS nun eingegrenzt auf $3,00–$3,15 (Midpoint um ~$0,08 angehoben).
- Aufwand & Steuern: Adjusted R&D $10–11 Mrd; erwarteter effektiver Steuersatz ~11%.
- 2026‑Risiko: Vereinbarung mit US‑Regierung und MFN‑Effekte werden 2026 dilutiv erwartet; Metsera und 3SBio verursachen erwartete EPS‑Dilutionen (~$0,16 bzw. $0,05 für 2026).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Metsera/Antitrust: Umfangreiche Nachfragen zur rechtlichen Auseinandersetzung mit Novo; Management betont Unzulänglichkeiten des konkurrierenden Angebots, gibt wegen laufender Verfahren aber wenig Konkretes preis.
- Kommerzielles Momentum: Vyndaqel/PADCEV: Diagnostik‑ und Nachfragewachstum, aber Nettoumsatz durch Gross‑to‑Net (IRA‑Rabatte) und Payer‑Contracting belastet; Seagen‑Integration führt zu kurzfristigen Einmaleffekten (Wholesale‑Shift).
- PAXLOVID/COVID: Analysten hoben Unsicherheit hervor; Management bestätigt Nachfragerückgang durch niedrige Infektionsraten und weist auf breite Spanne der Umsatzguidance hin.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Solider Quartals‑EPS‑Beat und angehobene EPS‑Range untermauern operative Stärke und Kostendisziplin. Kurzfristig belastet das COVID‑Downshift sowie BD‑bedingte Dilution und erhöhte Verschuldung (vorübergehend). Langfristig zielen Fertigungsinvestitionen, Einsparungen und gezielte Zukäufe auf nachhaltiges Wachstum — Schlüsselrisiken bleiben regulatorische/antitrust‑Konflikte und politisch bedingte Preisregulierungen für 2026.
Pfizer — Metsera, Inc., Pfizer Inc. - M&A Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, everyone, and welcome to Pfizer's Analyst and Investor Call to discuss proposed acquisition of Metsera. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Francesca DeMartino, Chief Investor Relations Officer and Senior Vice President. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I'm Francesca DeMartino, Pfizer's Chief Investor Relations Officer. On behalf of the Pfizer team, thank you for joining us. This call is being made available via audio webcast at pfizer.com. Earlier this morning, we announced our proposed acquisition of Metsera and its next-generation obesity portfolio. The press release we issued is available on our website at pfizer.com. We will start today's call with some prepared remarks, followed by a question-and-answer session. I'm joined today by Dr. Chris Boshoff, our Chief Scientific Officer and President of Research and Development; Dr. Andrew Baum, our Chief Strategy and Innovation Officer; and Dr. Jim List, our Chief Internal Medicine Officer.
Before we get started, I want to remind you that we will be making forward-looking statements and discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. I encourage you to read the disclaimers in our slide presentation, the press release we issued this morning and the disclosures in our SEC filings, which are all available on the IR website on pfizer.com. Forward-looking statements on the call are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties, speak only as of the call's original date, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of the statements.
Today, we will discuss why Metsera is a strong strategic fit for Pfizer and provide insight into why we believe Metsera's assets have the potential to be an important therapeutic option for the treatment of obesity and other related indications, which, in addition to oncology, have the potential to be a key driver of growth for our business. Turning to the financial details of the transaction. Pfizer has agreed to acquire all outstanding shares of Metsera for $47.50 per share in cash, representing a premium of 37% versus the 60-day rolling average. This results in a total transaction enterprise value of approximately $4.9 billion.
Additionally, the agreement has been structured to enable Pfizer to pay for successful development through the contingent value right or CVR. One CVR per share will entitle its holder to deferred cash payments totaling up to $20.50 tied to 3 specific clinical and regulatory milestones for MET-097, which is a GLP-1 receptor agonist and MET-233, an injectable amylin analog. Specifically, $5 per CVR following the Phase III start of Metsera's monthly injectable 097 and 233 combination, $7 per CVR following FDA approval of Metsera's monthly injectable 097 monotherapy and $10.50 per CVR following FDA approval of Metsera's monthly injectable 097 and 233 combination, if achieved.
The transaction is expected to be financed through a combination of available cash and new debt. The proposed transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including the receipt of required regulatory approvals and approval by Metsera shareholders and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025. In terms of guidance and financial impact of Pfizer, we expect to provide an update during our quarterly earnings call. With that, I will turn the call over to Chris.
Thank you, Francesca. We are excited to be here today to share insights on our proposed acquisition of Metsera and how this opportunity seamlessly aligns with Pfizer's strategy from discovery and development through to commercial. At the start of this year, we streamlined Pfizer R&D to form a fully integrated organization spanning targeted product discovery, clinical development, global regulatory operations and medical affairs. This integrated structure provides global scale and efficiency with minimal handoffs designed to accelerate product development.
As part of streamlining our approach to R&D, we sharpened our focus to core therapeutic areas: oncology, vaccines, internal medicine and inflammation and immunology. We list key pipeline programs that represent our next wave of potential breakthroughs, many with pivotal trials already in progress. Each of these programs have the potential to provide meaningful impact to patients and to Pfizer. With today's announcement, we are reaffirming our commitment to internal medicine, which along with oncology is expected to be among the largest pharmaceutical opportunities going forward.
Today, I'm thrilled to discuss why we are eager to augment our internal medicine pipeline with Metsera's highly differentiated peptides, which can both complement and transform our internal medicine portfolio. Acquiring a portfolio of clinical stage and preclinically potential best-in-class injectables with anticipated monthly long-term dosing regimens will support our ambition to deliver substantial value to patients and to our shareholders. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Andrew, who will provide an overview of this exciting opportunity for Pfizer.
Thank you, Chris. We are, and let me underline this, very excited to announce this transaction, which we believe positions Pfizer to lead in one of the most dynamic and high-growth therapeutic areas, obesity and its comorbidities. We evaluated multiple external opportunities in the obesity space and were exhaustive in our analysis and diligence to make sure we identify the optimal opportunity that delivers compelling potential differentiation across key asset attributes. As you are all aware, obesity and its associated conditions are on track to become the largest pharmaceutical opportunities with incumbents setting a high bar for innovation.
And while there are multiple successful products on the market, significant unmet medical need remains, and there is a potential to deliver truly differentiated products that can capture market share in this rapidly growing $100-plus billion market. Our decision to acquire Metsera is grounded in a clear thesis that we believe provides a path to leadership. Differentiated science and scalable platforms with potent and durable peptides that may enable tenfold lower doses than some approved products for a very attractive cost of goods.
We believe this portfolio offers the potential to reshape the treatment landscape, bring innovative products to patients and deliver attractive returns to our shareholders. We've taken a disciplined data-driven approach, evaluating strategic fit, product quality and potential for long-term value creation. Regarding our industry-leading commercial excellence in cardiometabolism, Pfizer has a proven track record of entering competitive markets and emerging as a leader. We did it for Eliquis, we did it for Lipitor and for Norvasc, and we plan to execute in a similar way with Metsera's unique investigational medicines.
We also plan to apply our experience pioneering and growing cardiometabolic markets gained through our VYNDAMAX franchise. Our commercial infrastructure includes one of the largest primary care field forces globally and our unique Pfizer for all platform. This infrastructure as well as our world-class R&D team are complemented by a global network of manufacturing sites, including 8 for sterile injectables, of which 4 are in the United States. As we look ahead, we are not just participating in the obesity category, we're aiming to define it.
And finally, moving to the price. We've been very conscious about our overall capital allocation strategy to ensure we are creating value for shareholders. We believe the deal terms, which include a risk-managed deal structure using CVRs, help share both the risk and upside with target shareholders. And among an evolving landscape for the industry and the overall competitive environment, we consider the full range of potential scenarios when aligning on price. With Metsera's differentiated science and Pfizer's commercial strength, we are confident in our ability to deliver for patients and for shareholders.
We look forward to additional data from Metsera's portfolio in the coming months that we believe will validate our excitement. Subject to clinical and regulatory success, we anticipate Metsera's pipeline will deliver a series of launches beginning in the 2028, '29 time frame that would accelerate our growth trajectory following our major loss of exclusities. I'll now turn the call over to Jim List, our Chief Internal Medicine Officer. Jim joined us from J&J, where he led R&D across their cardiovascular and metabolism portfolio. Jim?
Thank you, Andrew. I am pleased to be at Pfizer. And since joining, I've quickly seen the depth of scientific expertise and world-class capabilities that leave us positioned to win in obesity. Bringing in the Metsera portfolio will be transformative to our work in internal medicine. The Metsera portfolio is highly differentiated, driven by proprietary peptide platforms that can bring real innovation and advances to the obesity segment with 4 programs already in the clinic and additional in preclinical development.
MET-097i Metsera's ultra-long-acting next-generation injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist currently in Phase IIb. We believe it has potential best-in-class efficacy, differentiated tolerability and it's in development for both weekly and monthly dosing. We anticipate Phase III trials for weekly and monthly MET-097i to begin by the first half of 2026 and in the second half of 2026, respectively. MET-233i is an ultra-long-acting amylin analog being evaluated in the clinic as a single agent and in combination with MET-097i. When combined, we believe these agents have the potential to deliver category-leading efficacy and competitive tolerability with monthly maintenance dosing, positioning it to be a highly competitive and convenient treatment option in the evolving obesity landscape.
The Metsera portfolio also includes earlier-stage oral peptide programs for both GLP-1 and amylin with the potential to deliver differentiated oral medicines with no food or water restrictions. An additional potential upside comes by Metsera's peptide discovery engine, which is being leveraged to advance the next-generation GIP receptor agonist and glucagon analog, along with the GLP-1 receptor agonist that could potentially be injected quarterly. The clinical and preclinical data from Metsera are compelling.
The next slide, please. There we go. Clinical and preclinical data for Metsera are compelling. Based on what we've seen, and we've done deep diligence here, we're highly confident that the Metsera portfolio has the potential to deliver peptide therapies that are highly differentiated across a number of key attributes. From a clinical perspective, we've seen encouraging results that show Metsera assets are potent with robust weight loss observed at low doses, tolerable with encouraging GI adverse event profiles that appear to be placebo-like at starting doses and durable with PK profiles that are compatible with monthly maintenance dosing.
In addition, Metsera's peptides are combinable with complementary PK profiles and solubility to enable fixed dose combinations. And finally, the Metsera peptides are scalable with attractive cost of goods due to low API and device requirements resulting from high potency and monthly dosing, respectively. Moving now to what gets us really excited, the data. MET-097i is a fully biased injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist currently in development for both weekly and monthly dosing. Here, we see results from the Phase IIa study evaluating once-weekly dosing of MET-097i for 12 weeks, both without and with titration.
On the left, we see mean percent change from baseline and body weight over time, showing dose-dependent decreases in weight continuing through day 85 with no observed plateau, suggesting the potential for additional weight loss with longer duration of dosing. On the right, we see mean placebo-adjusted percent change from baseline and body weight at day 85, with reductions ranging from approximately 6% to 11%. After only 12 weeks of dosing, these data are compelling, and we believe they have the potential to translate into best-in-class efficacy.
Moving next to tolerability. The MET -- the Phase IIa data suggests MET-097i may have a differentiated profile. Looking across the key gastrointestinal adverse events of nausea, vomiting and diarrhea with once weekly dosing up to 12 weeks without titration, we see what would be considered an acceptable tolerability profile in the GLP-1 receptor agonist class. However, looking at the data with titration highlighted in blue at the bottom of the table, we see an extremely favorable tolerability profile with 5% of participants reporting nausea, 10% of participants reporting vomiting and no diarrhea. Also of note is that this encouraging tolerability profile was achieved with only 2 titration steps.
On this next slide are some of the data that support the potential for monthly maintenance dosing with MET-097i, which may be a key differentiator. Starting on the left, we see a PK profile showing an observed half-life of approximately 18 days, which supports monthly dosing. On the right are additional weight change data from the Phase IIa trial discussed in the prior 2 slides. In this study, participants followed their weekly -- their 12 weekly doses with a single monthly dose that was fourfold higher than the weekly dose. Notably, additional efficacy is seen after the switch from weekly to monthly while also being well tolerated with mean placebo-adjusted weight loss exceeding 14% at week 16 in the higher dose group.
MET-233i is an ultra-long-acting amylin analog injectable engineered for class-leading durability, potency and combinability with MET-097i. Here, we present data from a randomized placebo-controlled double-blind Phase I study, which evaluated the pharmacokinetics, efficacy and safety of MET-233i in participants with overweight or obesity without type 2 diabetes. On the left, our efficacy data, which demonstrate dose-dependent placebo-adjusted body weight loss of up to 8.4% after 5 weekly doses of 1.2 milligrams. These results are suggestive of class-leading efficacy.
On the right are tolerability results from the study, which further enhance the differentiation of MET-233i. Without titration, gastrointestinal events were generally mild, dose-dependent and primarily confined to the first week of dosing. Highlighted in light blue are potential starting doses for future studies, which, again, without titration, have tolerability results, which are comparable to placebo. And given the tolerability profile observed, we expect that titration may lead to further improvements in tolerability at higher doses.
A key driver of the Metsera value proposition lies in the potential to deliver what could be a first-in-category monthly GLP-1 amylin combination with potential for differentiated efficacy and tolerability shown clinically for both MET-097i and MET-233i, demonstrating the combinability of these agents as the remaining crucial element. On the left, Phase I data for MET-233i showed dose linear pharmacokinetics with an observed half-life of 19 days among the most durable PK profiles in the amylin analog class and also supporting monthly dosing.
On the right, we see the solubility of MET-097i and MET-233i peptides at different pHs, showing that both are combinable in a single formulation. Critically, the exposure profile of MET-233i after multiple doses is similar to that of MET-097i, which supports the potential of combination development of MET-097i with MET-233i as a first-in-category once-monthly GLP-1 receptor agonist amylin combination. Here we show emerging data from a single ascending dose study evaluating the MET-097i/MET-233i combination.
While early, these data provide positive signals for the development of this potentially first-in-category monthly treatment. First, they identify well-tolerated starting doses with no vomiting and relatively low levels of nausea and diarrhea seen in the first 3 dose levels on the left. Second, they demonstrate that additive weight loss can be achieved when combining MET-097i with MET-233i as can be seen from the groups highlighted in green on the right side. Taken together with a single agent, these combination results are highly encouraging and support our bold ambitions for Metsera's portfolio subject to closing of the proposed transaction. And with that, I'll hand it back to Chris.
Thank you, Jim. As you are all aware, obesity is a complex medical condition that is associated with over 200 comorbidities that span many systems. The impacts of obesity are profound and growing, impacting over 1 billion lives globally. Our initial Phase III plans will focus on core obesity and associated morbidities with the ability to differentiate across efficacy, tolerability, combinability and monthly dosing.
However, the breadth and potential indications for GLP-1 and amylin offer significant room for expansion. This includes both weight-dependent and increasingly weight independent mechanisms with applications across multiple diseases as a backbone therapy with the potential to synergize with our broad portfolio of medicines in development. The proposed acquisition of Metsera may propel us into a new era of internal medicine at Pfizer, seamlessly integrating with our strategy, heritage and world-class capabilities. Metsera's differentiated portfolio and platform are poised to deliver potential category-leading medicines for efficacy, differentiated tolerability and monthly dosing.
The next 12 months are catalyst-rich with important data readouts expected across the MET-097 and MET-233 monotherapy and combination programs as well as an anticipated Phase III program start for MET-097 and the initiation of the oral peptide clinical programs. Taken together, the Metsera portfolio has the potential to deliver competitive efficacy with a step change in tolerability, convenience and scalability.
With the Metsera portfolio and with our internally discovered investigational medicines, we will aim to reestablish leadership in internal medicine and primary care. Together, we anticipate the Metsera portfolio has the potential to be a key growth driver for Pfizer in the late 2020s and beyond, and we look forward to a potential acquisition close in the fourth quarter of this year. With that, we'll now open the call to questions. Operator?
[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Mohit Bansal with Wells Fargo.
2. Question Answer
Congrats on the deal. My question is regarding the development plan as well as VESPER-1 and 3 data. So first of all, have you seen any of those data, VESPER-1 and 3 data before making this acquisition? And number two, how do you envision the development plan for GLP-1 here given that Lilly has done extensive trial? It seems like you talk about obesity-related comorbidities. So is diabetes in the mix as well? How are you thinking about running an extensive program here?
Thank you very much for the question. Just regarding the due diligence, as Andrew pointed out, we did very thorough due diligence and a way of data that's currently in progress and that Metsera will share in the coming weeks and months. So yes, we are very comfortable with the data we've seen and also the data, obviously, we presented today. Jim?
Yes, absolutely. We've done diligence across what's available right now. We are looking forward to catalysts coming in the future -- in the near future with more VESPER-1 and VESPER-3 data. And I think the second part of the question was on comorbidities, if I heard correctly. And certainly, our initial aim is to develop these medications for obesity and overweight with comorbidities. But we see great potential here because of their tolerability, because of the flexibility in dosing, because of the potential for monthly and combinability dosing to be able to go after some of these many, many comorbidities that plague mankind because of obesity. And so we definitely look forward to expanding our clinical trials program as we go forward.
We'll go next to Dave Risinger with Leerink Partners.
Let me add my congratulations as well. So I wanted to ask a couple of questions, please. First, I think, Jim, you just commented that you will see more VESPER -1 and 3 data in the future. Can you just clarify exactly what you've seen to date and what you haven't seen yet that you'll see in the future, please? Second, you mentioned that you expect Metsera to disclose this data. Could you talk about expected disclosure timing? And then third, if you could please talk about Metsera's oral peptide candidates in a little bit more detail and your level of conviction in the oral peptide opportunity?
Sure. So to begin with, we -- I just want to note that we still have to close the deal and undergo integration. So there's a lot of things that Metsera can answer much better than we can. What I can say is we've seen some of the data from VESPER-1 and VESPER-3, and we anticipate that further data, 28-week data will be coming out in the very near term from Metsera. With respect to the orals, that's also a place where we think it's a very differentiated set of assets because unlike the current peptide orals, which require absorption through the stomach and have food and water restrictions, what we have here are peptides that are stable enough to be at least preclinically absorbed through the gut, that means through the small bowel, the way that medicines normally are absorbed.
And because of this, we anticipate that there will not be food or water restrictions, which will make them much more convenient. But there's some additional things about the orals that are very exciting, starting with the fact that we're talking about peptides that have very long half-lives and are very potent. So we're talking about potentially a lower cost of goods and the ability to have a very tolerable profile because of the long half-life, you won't have the same sort of peaks and troughs that you might get with a small molecule or with a shorter-lived peptide. And so those are all very positive things. The orals are still in preclinical development, but we anticipate within the coming months to see orals begin to be dosed in humans, and that's when we'll really be able to talk about what we have here when we see the PK and the tolerability in single ascending dose situation.
We'll go next to Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.
Congrats on the deal. I'm sure it's been very busy on your end. Just in your due diligence, maybe could you expand a little more why you opted to go for the peptide route versus the small molecules, especially on the heels of the enthusiasm at the [ ASC ] last week. Maybe characterize the challenges and issues you saw with the small molecule from your own internal experience and, of course, through your diligence.
Thanks for the question. I'm going to ask Andrew to address that.
Well, look, there's -- I think for anyone to say there's not a role for small molecules in this market would be stating something that's probably untrue. However, I think this market is heavily differentiated and the peptides offer a very different set of solutions, both in terms of the dose scheduling, particularly with the ultra long-acting or ultra -- ultra long-acting within the Metsera portfolio, but also in the magnitude of the weight loss you can attain with our agents compared to what we've seen for some of the existing oral small molecules.
I would remind you, however, that we also have a portfolio of small molecules, including our oral [ GIP ], which is currently in a Phase II trial. And one of the things that we're also considering, and I'll let Jim and Chris talk to it, is the potential for co-formulating this with the Metsera oral peptides. And if we can do it, then that's something certainly we will look at. So over to Chris and Jim.
Jim?
Yes. I would add on, as I just mentioned, one of the big differentiators here for the oral peptide platform of Metsera is that the peptides are absorbed in the gut where other drugs are absorbed. And that makes it particularly amenable to combining with small molecules, which are absorbed in the same part of the gut. So we're very excited to see how we might be able to combine our small molecule GIP receptor antagonist. And of course, we've had our chemistry labs working for the past several years, developing other incretin and [indiscernible] type analogs, both agonists and antagonists that will give us an armamentarium of possible oral molecules to combine together for solutions for patients.
We'll go next to Umer Raffat with Evercore ISI.
Congrats on the deal. Two questions, if I may. And I just want to be very, very clear that this is something -- when you said you've looked at the data and you're comfortable, I just want to make sure I'm interpreting it right. Number one, there were 3 specific data points that were generated on VESPER-3 so far; a, the weight loss with titration being competitive with weight loss without titration from VESPER-1; two, they transition from weekly to monthly and that transition continued to keep the weight loss going. And number three, no major new GI issues during that monthly transition. So could you confirm that you have a good sense around that and you're very comfortable because I think that's very relevant.
Thank you very much, Umer. Over to you, Jim.
Yes. I can confirm that we've seen data along those lines, and we are very comfortable. And one of the big questions, as I said, is, can you actually fourfold dose after weekly dosing. So we've seen we can titrate up. It's very well tolerated. In fact, the tolerability suggests really fast-leading tolerability. But then can you then give a fourfold dose and continue to do that month after month without having sort of reinitiation type tolerability issues. And what we're finding is because of the long life of the molecule, we're keeping the receptor agonized sufficiently that you do not lose that tolerability that you've achieved through the titration step. So that, along with continued weight loss, makes us very confident that this is going to be a super differentiated profile.
Umer, do you have an additional question? Otherwise, operator, we can move to the next.
We'll go next to Kerry Holford with Berenberg.
Firstly, on the Phase III start, for MET-097. I think I heard you correctly say that you would start the weekly Phase III first half of next year and the monthly in the second half of next year. So just interested to hear why there might be a delay to starting that monthly study, more data required? Is it device related perhaps? Just any commentary you're willing to give there. And then more broadly, I mean, clearly, there's a lot of competition coming, many of you and your peers working to bring products to market for obesity at the back end of the decade. So I would just be interested to hear what your assumptions are in terms of degree of competition, pricing, how much of the market do you expect to be funded via insured channels versus cash pay? And perhaps also what do you envisage in terms of the split between orals and injectables?
Thank you. I'll start with the -- your first question regarding timing. We're obviously going to learn more in the coming weeks between now and close and then provide more accuracy on timing. And the timing for the Phase III studies could be earlier, but we certainly do not want to overpromise at this stage. I'm going to ask Andrew to address the questions regarding market size and pricing.
Well, I think just to repeat what I said in the script, and forgive me for not greater accuracy, but I called it a $100-plus billion opportunity. And I think it's -- I think it's difficult to put an upper end on that where we are at the time. What is true that it is competitive. But hopefully, what you've heard from the comments already on this call is our excitement over the differentiation with the Metsera portfolio.
We believe it is truly foundational in defining a new standard of care for obesity and associated comorbidities because of the unique monthly scheduling, the ability to have a combination of both a best-in-class GLP-1 and amylin and an oral peptide platform, including the potential for a combination GLP-1 oral with unmatched efficacy. So we need to deliver on all of this. But if there's one thing that we want you to take away from this call is our excitement in relation to the data that we've seen, and we're looking forward to sharing that data with you in due course.
We'll go next to Chris Schott with JPMorgan.
Congrats on the deal. Just 2 for me. First, can you just talk about manufacturing and capacity you'll have to make these products? Just what does the company already have in place? And how are you thinking about scaling that as you think about the commercial opportunity over time? And the second one for me was just on the amylin space. We're obviously seeing a number of players moving assets forward here. Can you just elaborate a little bit more about the profile you're seeing with the Metsera drug and how that compares or differentiates from others in development? Is it -- just any additional color there would be appreciated.
Thank you. I'll start with that on the manufacturing. As you know, we've got extensive existing network, both in the U.S. and abroad, specifically also for sterile injectables and oral expertise and with the proven capabilities in optimizing our COGS and we do not believe there will be any restriction on capacity or capability to deliver the portfolio and manufacturing. The second part?
Yes. With respect to the amylin, there's a couple of things about it that I think are differentiating. And the first one actually isn't the molecule itself, it's its combinability with the GLP-1 in a monthly format. That's really a potential first-in-class because while there are some fairly long-lived amylins, they don't have a partner GLP-1 to go with on a monthly format.
But even there, this has to be one of the longest half-life amylins out there. And we see and perhaps as a result of that, incredibly good tolerability and so when you take a well-tolerated GLP-1 combined with a well-tolerated amylin differentiated with both the tolerability and the ability to be dosed on a monthly basis with the GLP-1. I think that's where we get very excited about what this could do.
We'll go next to Terence Flynn with Morgan Stanley.
Maybe 2 for me. I was just wondering if you can speak to how competitive the process might have been for the deal? And then the second one is with respect to upcoming Phase III trials. How are you thinking about the control arm in some of these studies, as I imagine the standard of care is changing across a number of these diseases as some of the other companies with injectables receive approvals across a range of indications. So do you expect to have to do active control studies? Or you think placebo-controlled studies will still be possible?
Thank you very much. Regarding the competitive process, we won't comment on the competitive dynamics of the process. However, Metsera's proxy statement will be filed with the SEC in the coming weeks, and that will provide information regarding the process. And I have to point out that Metsera has shown its continued confidence in us and in the portfolio by agreeing to take some of the considerations as contingent value rights. Jim?
Yes. With respect to the trial design, while I'm not getting into specifics about it, we believe that across the program, there will be room for both placebo-controlled trials and head-to-head trials. And in fact, one of the advantages to this portfolio is its differentiation. So we actually look forward to proving the differentiation in head-to-head studies. But the first bread-and-butter studies of overweight and obesity with and without type 2 diabetes in the monthly study, those are most likely going to be placebo-controlled, very traditional trials.
We'll go next to Geoff Meacham with Citibank.
Congrats on the deal. Just have a couple. The first is, just given the longer dosing interval, are there out-of-the-box indications that you guys are considering? I know you mentioned diabetes, but thinking cardio or inflammation or maybe even neuropsych. And then the second question, obviously, data dependent, but how do you guys think about the markets by the time you launch? Are you planning for perhaps a larger consumer-driven market with out-of-pocket costs being a big component? And if so, what investments can you make to that end?
Yes. Just on your -- the first part of your question, as we stated, we'll start with the core indications around obesity and the core associated diseases. But I'm going to ask Jim to expand a little bit on potential future opportunities and then Andrew, for your second part.
Yes. The actual -- the dosing interval, I don't think plays so much into which particular other indications that we pursue. Rather, it's understanding the match between the indication and the amount of weight loss that's needed. The dosing interval of monthly simply makes all of these possibilities easier to take for patients, more convenient. And again, these are all going to be very well tolerated in our estimation. So that basically gives us a large number of possibilities, and we can tailor then which particular peptide and which particular dosing interval and which particular route of administration to the patient type and disease type that needs that amount of weight loss and is willing to take that kind of an injection or pill for that amount of time.
Andrew?
Yes. No, I just -- before I talk about the self-pay market, I'd add on to Jim's comments that I appreciate that the monthly is getting the bulk of the attention because that's somewhat of a scarcity. But just to remind everyone, we are offering a weekly schedule, a monthly schedule and an oral. So we are able to serve different desires and needs for the patients within our portfolio.
So moving on to the second part of the question, which is self-pay market. Look, clearly, there is already a very substantial self-pay market that exists right now, both for the approved products as well as the compounders in the U.S. in Europe or outside the U.S., more importantly, it's likely to be a very significant market given the challenges associated with reimbursement given the size of the patient populations there. Pfizer has extensive experience, and I'd remind everyone of the Pfizer for all platform, which already supplies a number of products, both as and indeed third parties direct to patients. So we believe that we are optimally situated to take advantage of all channels to serve patients' needs.
Thank you. And just to add that across indications, we believe a well-tolerated monthly dosing could have huge advantages, not just for maintenance, but also for convenience and for compliance.
We'll go next to Carter Gould with Cantor Fitzgerald.
Congrats on the deal. I guess for Andrew and Jim, your response to the earlier amylin question emphasized combinability. I guess based on your due diligence and your own view of the market, is there an internal view on the importance and attractiveness of amylin as a monotherapy? Or do you see this less important commercially or more just a step is opening up the combo? Any comments would be appreciated.
Jim...
Yes. I think what we have is an embarrassment of riches. We have a lot of potential ways we can take things forward, a lot of offerings here, and we're going to consider what the role of a mono amylin is versus the other offerings. Again, the reason I think for highlighting the combination is because that can lead to unprecedented amounts of weight loss that can get at some of these populations such as the patients with BMI greater than 35 who are not adequately served with current offerings.
I think Jim said it well, nothing to add.
We'll go next to Rajesh Kumar with HSBC.
The first one is, after this deal, how would the balance sheet look? And what is the remaining capacity for future deals at the end of the year, if we could get some color around that. Second is that I appreciate the color on your strategic positioning that you could get monthly, weekly, oral -- it's a platform. You went for amylin plus GLP combination, but not a double or triple [ G ], which there were a few assets out there which could have played into that.
So any color on why amylin as a mechanism one for you would be very helpful to understand. And finally, when I look at your commentary around developing around obesity and adjacent indications, would you be also looking at an outcome study? I would imagine you would need to, but is that something on the cards eventually? Or is it something which is more near term?
So let me start with the amylin. We certainly, in the discovery -- peptide discovery engine, a number of other peptides are being worked on from Metsera, including glucagon agonism. Amylin, we have to remember, has been put in humans since the launch of pramlintide. So there's a lot of human experience on the safety of amylin as a therapeutic. And again, we've got some very exciting results with this peptide. But we will continue to look at a lot of possible peptide combinations as we develop more peptides in the Discovery Labs.
Now with respect to outcomes, yes, part of the large clinical trials package will include outcomes of a number of sorts. When you're saying outcomes, I'm assuming you're referring to cardiovascular outcomes, which will be important because we understand that weight loss and GLP-1 agents lead to cardiovascular outcomes, and we'd like to certainly demonstrate that and the possibility that with better compliance with monthly dosing and with greater amounts of weight loss, those outcomes may be even better than what's been appreciated so far. But for a number of the other comorbidities that we might pursue, again, those are outcomes that we would be looking at there because after all, what we're trying to do is improve the health and life of patients. And so really looking at hard endpoints is going to be an important part of that.
Thank you very much. Just on the first part of your question specifically regarding the capacity for further business development. As Dave Denton and Albert has stated earlier this year, we can have potentially up to $15 billion available for business development. And we've now executed so far this year the 3SBio and now the announcement for the potential close for Metsera. So there's potential for additional room for business. Thank you. We're now going to have the last question.
Our final question comes from Courtney Breen with Bernstein.
What I wanted to just dig into a little bit is as you think about advancing into Phase IIIs and demonstrating differentiation, there's now, I guess, a lot more weight placed on the tolerability and the convenience as opposed to purely the weight loss. And so as you're going to design these studies and certainly, as there's been discussion previously with 097 that perhaps titration isn't needed. Can you talk a little bit about how you're trading off those optimization factors as we head into Phase III designs?
Thank you very much. I'm going to ask Jim to please answer.
I think what we're anticipating doing is having a small number of steps of titration for 097 and for 233 and then getting to steady state. And the profile we've seen so far, and this needs to be borne out with more study is if you do that, you can end up with a class-leading tolerability profile. And so that's what we're aiming towards, and that's what we look forward to studying.
Thank you very much, everyone, for joining us today, and we're looking forward to update you over the coming weeks and months as this progress. Thank you very much.
This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.
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Pfizer — Metsera, Inc., Pfizer Inc. - M&A Call
Pfizer — Metsera, Inc., Pfizer Inc. - M&A Call
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Deal: Pfizer bietet $47,50/Anteil (Enterprise Value ~ $4,9 Mrd.) für Metsera; erwarteter Abschluss Q4 2025.
- Struktur: Zahlung teils über Contingent Value Right (CVR — bis zu $20,50 pro Aktie an Meilensteinzahlungen).
- Strategie: Ziel ist Führungsposition im Bereich Adipositas/Internal Medicine durch monatlich dosierbare Peptid‑Therapien.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Kerntherapien: MET‑097 (GLP‑1‑Rezeptor‑Agonist; Glucagon‑like peptide‑1) und MET‑233 (Amylin‑Analog) mit Potenzial für monatliche Dosierung und kombinierbare Formulierung.
- Orale Pipeline: Frühphasige orale Peptide ohne erwartete Nahrungs‑/Wasser‑Restriktionen; First‑in‑human‑Dosen angekündigt in den kommenden Monaten.
- Kommerz/Manufacturing: Pfizer hebt globale Vertriebsstärke und bestehende Steril‑Injectable‑Kapazitäten (8 Standorte, 4 in den USA) als Skalenvorteil hervor.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Transaktionsdetails: 37% Prämie vs. 60‑Tage‑Durchschnitt; Finanzierung aus Kassenmitteln und Neuverschuldung; Guidance‑Update angekündigt beim nächsten Earnings‑Call.
- Timeline: Phase‑III‑Start für MET‑097: wöchentlich H1 2026, monatlich H2 2026; mögliche Markteinführungen ab 2028–2029 bei Erfolg.
- Wirkdaten: Phase‑IIa: wöchentliche MET‑097 Gewichtsreduktionen ~6–11% nach 12 Wochen; Wechsel auf monatliche Dosis zeigte >14% placebo‑adj. bei höherer Dosis; MET‑233 zeigte bis zu 8,4% nach 5 Wochen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Due Diligence: Management sagt, man habe wichtige VESPER‑1/3‑Daten gesehen, erwartet aber weitere 28‑Wochen‑Readouts von Metsera in Kürze; Details sollen noch folgen.
- Toleranz & Dosing: Fokus auf Titrierung, Erhalt der Verträglichkeit beim Vierfach‑Monatsdosis‑Switch; Management nennt dies zentral für Differenzierung.
- Studien‑Design & Markt: Pfizer plant sowohl placebo‑kontrollierte als auch Head‑to‑Head‑Studien; Fragen zu Wettbewerb, Preisbildung und Erstattungsanteilen blieben weitgehend offen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Kauf ist ein risikogemanagtes Wetten auf potenziell differenzierende, monatlich dosierbare Peptide. Chancen: starke Kommerz‑ und Fertigungsbasis plus CVR‑Upside. Risiken: noch ausstehende Readouts, regulatorische Hürden, Integration und Erstattung/hoher Wettbewerbsdruck. Anleger sollten VESPER‑Readouts und das Guidance‑Update eng verfolgen.
Pfizer — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, everyone, and welcome to Pfizer's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Francesca DeMartino, Chief Investor Relations Officer and Senior Vice President. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Good morning, and welcome to Pfizer's earnings call. I'm Francesca DeMartino, Chief Investor Relations Officer. On behalf of the Pfizer team, thank you for joining us. This call is being made available via audio webcast at pfizer.com.
Earlier this morning, we released our results for the second quarter of 2025 via a press release that is available on our website at pfizer.com. I'm joined today by Dr. Albert Bourla, our Chairman and CEO; and David Denton, our CFO. Albert and Dave have some prepared remarks, and we will then open the call for questions. Members of our leadership team will be available for the Q&A session.
Before we get started, I want to remind you that we will be making forward-looking statements and discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. I encourage you to read the disclaimers in our slide presentation, the press release we issued this morning and the disclosures in our SEC filings, which are all available on the IR website on pfizer.com. Forward-looking statements on the call are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties speak only as of the call's original date, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of the statements. With that, I will turn the call over to Albert.
Thank you, Francesca. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call.
Our business is performing well, and I'm pleased with the progress we achieved in the second quarter. We advanced and strengthened our R&D pipeline, we work to maximize the value of our commercial portfolio and made further strides to expand our margins. We continue to be actively engaged with policymakers as we navigate complicated and rapidly evolving geopolitical environment while also remaining focused on advancing our ability.
With our strong year-to-date performance, we are raising our adjusted diluted EPS guidance for full year 2025 and remain committed to our dividend. Our programs to expand margins through focus, technology and simplification are working very well. We are driving productivity gains by leveraging technology success, AI and automation, and we are also realizing the benefit of continued streamlining across our company. We believe Pfizer is well positioned to continue creating meaningful value for patients and our shareholders.
Our top strategic priority this year is, of course, improving R&D productivity. I'm proud of the outcomes we are driving and the meaningful milestones achieved during the quarter. Looking ahead, we believe key programs in our R&D portfolio offer significant opportunities to help address substantial patient needs and drive Pfizer's growth in the coming years.
I will mention some highlights. Elrexfio is a medicine that is performing very well with rapid growth and encouraging progress in claiming leading serve in new markets, such as Japan, United Kingdom and Spain. The clinical data in Elrexfio initially heavily treated, triple class-exposed multiple myeloma indications continue to be encouraged with median overall survival of greater than 2 years which is more than double the historical median overall survival in this population. Moreover, the majority of responding patients are maintaining their response at 30 months. Elrexfio has the potential to be a leading standard of care with a differentiated clinical profile. It is a convenient subcutaneous fixed dosing regimen, the only one that now includes a once every 4-week option for select pace. New data presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology Annual Meeting in newly diagnosed patients demonstrate Elrexfio potential to move to earlier multiple myeloma treatment settings. These data from Part 1 of the MagnetisMM-6 study, so a confirmed response rate greater than 97% and the manageable safety profile in combination with daratumumab and lorlatinib. The randomized portion of this Phase III study is now enrolling very well. By executing on MagnetisMM-6 and Elrexfio, other ongoing Phase III trials, we aim to achieve label expansion that if approved, would collectively increase the addressable population of approximately fivefold in the growing multiple myeloma market expected to reach approximately $44 billion by year 2030.
See Vedotin or SV is our first-in-class integrin-beta-6 IB6 that could be a driver of growth later this decade. We are executing a robust development program for this investigational compound in non-small cell lung cancer. This includes our fully enrolled Phase III study of SV monotherapy versus docetaxel in previously treated non-squamous patients that we expect data from next year. In the second line plus population, we have observed a durable 31% confirmed response rate, which is favorable versus historical data with docetaxel monotherapy.
We are also enrolling a Phase III study of SV in combination with a PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor in first-line non-small cell lung cancer with high PD-L1 expression based on encouraging Phase I data for this combination recently presented These results saw a 57% response rate and greater than 90% disease control, including responses in all patients in the tumor proportion score greater than 50% sub, which compares favorably to historical PD and the PD-1 monotherapy. These results support an ambition to change standards of care through conventional chemotherapies sparing regimens by leveraging the potential synergy between reductive ABCs and PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor. With our ongoing and planned trials in non-small cell lung cancer, SV has the potential to impact large patient population with a non-small cell lung cancer market expected to reach over $60 billion by year 2030. Our strategy is intended to deliver a first approval in previously treated patients before moving into the first-line setting, which is a non-small cell lung cancer includes more than 0.5 million global patients.
In hematology, we continue to promote the differentiated profile of Hympavzi. In the quarter, we saw positive top line data from the Phase III BACE study evaluating Hympavzi for adults and adolescents with hemophilia A or B. The study cohort of patients with inhibitors met its primary endpoint demonstrating a statistically significant and clinically meaningful 93% reduction in annualized bleeding rate compared to on-demand treatment in patients 12 years older, which compares favorably to recent approved products for hemophilia A and hemophilia B. These results further strengthened Hympavzi differentiated profile as the first once-weekly fixed dose subcutaneous treatment for hemophilia A or B, administered in a convenient prefilled auto-injector They also support the potential to expand its label to patients with hemophilia who develop inhibitors to factor replacement as we continue to execute on its launch in the previously approved noninhibitor We have seen considerable quarter-over-quarter growth, particularly in the hemophilia B market, where subcutaneous treatments are only recently available and follows EU and Japan approvals at the end of last year, we are seeking reimbursement on pursuing early access pathways in other international markets as we grow our presence in the hemophilia market projected to reach nearly EUR 10 billion by year 2030.
Moving to our vaccine portfolio. We are enthusiastic about our potential to deliver the first approved vaccine for C. difficile infection. Our second generation investigational vaccine candidate builds upon encouraging results from the prior Phase III CLOVER trial of our first-generation candidate. This trial demonstrated 100% efficacy against medically attended C. diff infection despite not achieving the study's primary endpoint. With our second generation C. diff vaccine formulation, we have the potential to simplify the dosing schedule from 3 to 2 weeks. This candidate now in Phase II increased the strength of the immune response fourfold compared to the first-generation vaccine. Based on these newly announced Phase II data, we are preparing for a Phase III start before the end of this year. We will incorporate learnings from the previous CLOVER study to develop new primary endpoints focused on the prevention of severe disease outcomes rather than primary infection. If approved, the vaccine could significantly reduce the health care burden of the nearly 500,000 annual C. diff infections and approximately 30,000 annual tests in the U.S. alone.
In another one of our phased products, we finished dosing the last patient in our study of a vaccine candidate for Lyme disease. If successful, we expect to submit for approval next year. We also continue to strengthen our portfolio by harnessing external innovation through strategic business development. The recent closing of our global ex China in-licensing agreement with 3SBio grants has exclusive rights to develop, manufacture and commercialize SSGJ-707 and bispecific antibody targeting PD-1 and has the potential to deliver great for patients in the next wave in PD-1 immunotherapy, which is an established EUR 55 billion market. With comparing monotherapy data in advanced non-small cell lung cancer presented recently at we view this promising cancer immunotherapy candidate as seamlessly within Pfizer's oncology strategy. Given our deep experience in the development of antibody therapeutics and our differentiated industry-leading portfolio of we intend to serve detail later this year for our plans for a Phase III program with Pfizer's established presence and global reach, we believe 707 has the potential to become a backbone therapy for multiple solid tumor types where the PD-L1 mechanism could have significant Across our pipeline, we continue to sharpen our focus on programs where the strength of our capabilities give us the greatest opportunities to address substantial We look forward to sharing future updates about our profits.
Now let's move to commercial. Our commercial strategy is unlocking higher productivity and performance across both our U.S. and international divisions. With several of our established brands, we are pleased with our continued market leadership and growth. We delivered another solid quarter for our Vyndaqel family, with 21% year-over-year operational growth. These products are the foundation of care for patients with a serious heart condition, ATTR cardiomyopathy, and we continue to see strong progress in diagnosing patients and providing broad access. While we continue to closely monitor the competitive impact of new entrants, we believe the Vyndaqel family is differentiated with a strong clinical profile contributed to continued volume growth.
With Eliquis, we are the clear leader with robust demand in a growing anticoagulant market. Our international commercial teams are driving higher growth versus the market in our key countries with effective engagement with health care professionals to reinforce the favorable profile of these medicines. In the U.S., the BMS-Pfizer alliance recently announced a new direct to patient option for purchasing Eliquis via the alliances patient resource Eliquis 360 some more. This option offers an insured, under-insured or self-pay patients an opportunity to significantly lower out-of-pocket costs for Eliquis. Among some of our recently launched acquired brands, we are seeing strong underlying demand in competitive classes as we work to build expanded access and greater awareness and loyalty, of course, among health care professionals.
With NURTEC, we continue driving strong commercial execution. We are pleased with the performance of new consumer campaigns and greater precision and effectiveness in serving compelling clinical data with health care processor. In the U.S., we achieved strong growth in total prescriptions and with 47% market share maintain leadership in the oral CGRP class, offset by pressures on net revenues from the impact of the IRA medical Part D redesign and the 340B program
Internationally, we are achieving strong performance in several key markets where we already have access and are encouraged by the potential to unlock additional opportunities by continuing to expand the
Padcev, a new -- a key product in our oncology portfolio is demonstrating strong performance and to see multiple avenues for future growth. Our the treatment of adult patients with locally advanced metastatic urothelial cancer achieved high year-over-year operational growth of 38% in the quarter with growing demand and the onetime favorable impact from to a wholesale distribution model for products. Padcev in combination with pembrolizumab has secured market share greater than 50% in first-line LA metastatic UC and is the standard of care first-line treatment. Additionally, we continue to anticipate Phase III readouts for PCV in muscle invasive bladder cancer in two ongoing studies. If successful and approved, we expect a significant expanded opportunity to treat patients with bladder cancer focused on the approximately 28,000 in the U.S. with MIBC, approximately 80% of whom undergo cystectomy.
Cibinqo had strong 46% year-over-year operational growth with the quarter, driven by higher demand in the U.S. and growth in key international markets where we have decided to focus. We believe there is additional market opportunities for Cibinqo responding to the need among patients with atopic dermatitis. We are seeing the clear impact of recent positive data released for several of our oncology products. It is contributing to strong growth in helping to establish these products as standard of care. LORBRENA seen 48% year-over-year operational growth in the quarter, and we expect continued strength through 2025. It has a compelling efficacy profile supported by the CROWN study where the median progression free survival was not reached after 5 years of follow-up. LORBRENA is emerging as a standard of care for patients with first-line R positive metastatic non-small cell lung cancer.
We saw continued momentum with Braftovi and Mektovi with 23% year-over-year operational growth in the second quarter. Result for the Phase III BREAKWATER trial saw the Braftovi combination regimen doubled median overall survival versus standard of care for treatment-naive patients with metastatic colorectal cancer with BRAF V600E-mutation. This represents a significant advancement of the approximately 4,000 patients diagnosed annually in the U.S. with metastatic colorectal cancer with this mutation. They face a more than twofold greater mortality risk compared to patients with no BRAF mutation.
XTANDI contributed strong 14% operational growth during this quarter. Demand is growing for patients with castration-sensitive prostate cancer and it is the top prescribed branded antigen receptor pathway inhibitor. With the presentation long-term overall survival data from the ARCHES trial, XTANDI is now the first and only androgen receptor pathway inhibitor to demonstrate an overall survival benefit at 5 years in men with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer. We also recently served positive top line results from the Phase III EMBARK study, making XTANDI the first and only androgen receptor inhibitor-based regimen to demonstrate overall survival benefit in non-metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer with high-risk biochemical recurrence. This contributed to demand growth for XTANDI and we achieved 27% share in new-to-brand prescription. This positive indicate how we are continuing to invest and focus in areas where we have leadership and expertise, contributed to ongoing progress with our oncology portfolio.
The strong performance in the U.S. and the international divisions show why we remain confident in the commercial strategy we refined more than a year ago. In the quarter, for example, the key market and brand combination, we prioritized in our international divisions are outperforming with strong mid- to high single-digit growth across all regions. We will continue to advance this commercial strategy and expect to drive further progress through precision targeting engagement with patients and health care profession.
With that, I'll turn it over to Dave, who will walk through our additional strategic priorities and progress with expanding margins and optimizing capital allocation. Dave.
Thank you, Albert, and good morning. To begin this morning, let me emphasize that our solid financial results are a clear reflection of our disciplined execution and strategic priorities. We remain focused on improving patient outcomes and meeting our financial goals while managing the complexities of the external environment. Our cost improvement initiatives have contributed to greater organizational efficiencies as demonstrated by our robust operating margins achieved this quarter. Going forward, we expect to improve our cash flow, reduce our debt leverage over time and increased flexibility across our three capital allocation pillars. Our focus remains on creating long-term shareholder value. We will continue to invest in our business for the long term while prudently returning capital to our shareholders.
Now let me start with our second quarter results, then I'll touch on our capital allocation priorities and then move to our cost improvement initiatives. I'll finish with a few comments on the macro environment as well as our 2025 guidance. For the second quarter 2025, we recorded revenues of $14.7 billion, an increase of 10% operationally. This increase was largely due to overall growth, both in the U.S. and internationally. Partially offsetting the increase was an $825 million year-over-year unfavorable impact of higher manufacturer discounts resulting from the IRA Medicare Part D redesign, which took effect in the first quarter of '25, and overall is largely in line with our expectations.
On the bottom line, second quarter 2025 reported diluted earnings per share was $0.51, and adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.78, ahead of our expectations, primarily due to strong top line performance and our cost management execution. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of our refined commercial strategy. We remain committed to prioritizing key products and markets, optimizing the global allocation of our commercial field resources and concentrating our marketing efforts on high priority areas. We saw strong contributions across our product portfolio, primarily driven by the Vyndaqel family, PAXLOVID, and Eliquis, partially offset by declines in IBRANCE. Also, I'd like to highlight a significant trend within our portfolio that we expect to fuel the company's top line for the next several years. Year-to-date, Pfizer's recently launched and acquired products delivered $4.7 billion in revenue while growing approximately 15% operationally versus last year. We plan to continue to invest behind these two product groups to drive their future performance and help enable the company to largely offset our LOEs over the next several years.
Adjusted gross margin for the second quarter was approximately 76%, primarily reflecting the product mix within the quarter. Looking at our adjusted gross margin performance over the last 2 years, we have largely achieved percentages in the mid to upper 70s when adjusting for COMIRNATY, which, as you know, has a 50-50 gross profit split with our partner, BioNTech. In addition, we believe the expected $1.5 billion savings from our Phase I of our manufacturing optimization program by the end of '27 will help bolster gross margins as we transition through the LOE period. Maintaining a strong emphasis on cost management throughout our manufacturing network will continue to be a key priority.
Total adjusted operating expenses were $5.8 billion for the second quarter, an 8% decline operationally versus last year. Now looking at the components, adjusted SI&A expenses decreased 8% operationally, primarily reflecting a decrease in marketing and promotional spend for various products as a result of our focused investments and ongoing productivity improvements. Adjusted R&D expenses decreased 9% operationally, driven primarily by a decline in spending due to pipeline optimization expected to be reinvested later this year and into next year. We continue to be disciplined with our operational expense management.
Q2 reported diluted earnings per share was $0.51 and our adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.78, which benefited from our efficient operating structure in addition to our effective tax rate primarily driven by a favorable change in jurisdictional mix of earnings.
Now let me quickly touch on our capital allocation strategy, which is designed to enhance long-term shareholder value. Our strategy consists of maintaining and growing our dividend over time, reinvesting in our business at an appropriate level of financial return and making value-enhancing share repurchases. In the first half of 2025, we returned $4.9 billion to shareholders via our quarterly dividend and we invested $4.7 billion in internal R&D. As previously mentioned, maintaining our gross leverage at an appropriate level is a key priority towards improving our capacity for business development. Our gross leverage at the end of the second quarter was approximately 2.7x, which we are now setting as our new target, down from 3.25x. During Q2, we announced the licensing agreement with 3SBio, which closed in July of 2025. Our business development capacity is now approximately $13 billion following the 3SBio deal. Lastly, first half 2025 operating cash flows at $1.8 billion was tempered primarily by large expected payments in the second quarter, including an approximately $2.1 billion TCJA repatriate in tax payment and our payment to BioNTech for our gross profit split. We expect to see improved cash flows in the back half of this year. Overall, we are focused on maintaining leverage at or below our new target to support a balanced allocation of capital between reinvestment and direct return to our shareholders.
We continue to be disciplined with our operational expense management, progressing multiple improvement programs as we remain focused on driving operating margin expansion over the coming years. We expect to begin realizing initial savings from the Phase 1 manufacturing optimization program in the latter part of this year. As part of our goal to return to pre-pandemic operating margin, we remain on track to deliver on our goal of at least $4.5 billion in cumulative net cost savings from our ongoing cost realignment program by the end of this year. As a reminder, in total, we expect approximately $7.7 billion in savings by the end of '27 to drive operating efficiencies, strengthening our business with the potential of contributing significantly to our bottom line over the period. Of these savings, approximately $500 million identified in R&D will be reinvested in the pipeline, which we expect by the end of '26.
Now with that, let me turn to our full year '25 guidance. The pharmaceutical industry continues to navigate a complex global landscape influenced by rapidly changing proposed trade and tariff policies. Strategies to help mitigate the potential impact on our business in the short term have been implemented. And we continue to evaluate opportunities and develop plans, which will help mitigate the potential long-term impact of tariffs on our business and our operations. That said, the company's guidance absorbs the impact of the currently imposed tariffs from China, Canada and Mexico as well as potential price changes this year based on the letter received on July 31 from President Trump. Our non-COVID revenues continued to perform very well operationally and ahead of our plan. In addition, our guidance assumes favorable -- favorability to revenues due to foreign exchange rates. As a reminder, our plan assumes that a large majority of our COVID revenues are forecasted in both Q3 and Q4. Given this fact, we believe it is prudent to maintain our full year revenue outlook as we enter the second half of the year. We continue to expect full year '25 revenues to be in the range of $61 billion to $64 billion. In addition, we now expect adjusted SI&A to be in the range of $13.1 billion to $14.1 billion, adjusted R&D to be in the range of $10.4 billion to $11.4 billion and our adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 13%.
Now given our strong performance to date as well as our outlook, including a favorable impact on foreign exchange, our more efficient cost structure as well as improvements in our adjusted effective tax rate, we are raising our full year '25 adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance by $0.10. This includes absorbing a $0.20 charge for acquired in-process R&D associated with the upfront payment for the 3SBio transaction. So just to clarify, without the 3SBio deal, we would have raised our adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance by $0.30. Of this amount, approximately 2/3 is due to our strong operational performance and our outlook. I will also point out that while we are raising our adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance, we are partially derisking the expected COVID performance in the second half of this year. As a result, our revised full year '25 adjusted diluted earnings per share range is now $2.90 to $3.10 a share.
In closing, we will continue to focus on maximizing our product portfolio's value and driving innovation to strengthen our pipeline. With a stronger balance sheet, we plan to deploy capital more effectively. We will focus on increasing our R&D productivity by deploying AI and digital capabilities, reinvest appropriately to accelerate high-value R&D programs and pursue new growth opportunities through business development. Additionally, our cost improvement initiatives are beginning to expand operating margins through productivity gains and streamline processes.
And so with that, I thank you for your attention. I will now open up for Q&A.
Operator, please assemble the queue.
[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Trung Huynh with UBS.
2. Question Answer
Just there in your prepared remarks, you noted your guidance absorbs the potential price changes this year based on the letter you received from President Trump on July 1. That talks about impacting Medicaid with MFM. Does that imply you think something is going to happen this year? And if so, what's your broad assumption so we can kind of quantify that hit on your revenues and EPS. And then can you perhaps just give us your state of the union on the recent developments with NSN and tariffs? And then just on the CDC recommendations for the vaccines. There was a reduced recommendation in May. The payer pullback or broader adult covered vaccinations. So just how are you sizing the '25 to '26 fall season versus last year? And can you comment on any progress with state mandates or payer negotiations to stabilize that coverage?
Thank you, Trung. Let me say I know many people would like to get clarity on the MFM situations of the tariff situations. And I'm not in a position to provide much light not because we aren't discussing. Right now, we are in very active discussions. I discussed at the highest levels of this government. I discussed myself with the President of the letter me and all the other. We discussed a lot with the Secretary We discussed a lot with Dr. who is responsible for implementing a lot of these things. And I would say only that these discussions are extremely productive. I think we understand where the President comes from, and we are engaging in a productive way to find solutions. But because we are in active discussions, it's inappropriate for me to start providing more details because I don't want to say things while we're discussing with So I understand that many others may have questions about that. And I'm not sure I can give more information than what I just told you that we had a letter that says a base of what the President wants. The letter asks a lot from us, but we are engaged in productive discussions with them. And in I'm happy in the way that they listen to us and the way that we are trying collectively to find solutions, but from one hand, we may affordable in the U.S. On the other hand, we'll make our industry even more competitive compared to China, which is progressing very rapidly. On the tariffs also, I don't have much news to add. We are waiting with 232 report. And once we have that, we will see how this discussion. Again, on the tariffs, I had good discussions with the Secretary with the U.S. Trade representative, with Secretary and, of course, with President, but we have a special relation through the times So that's all I can say. I don't know if -- Dave, you want to add something on what is included and how we think about it.
Yes. I just -- I would just say that the underlying strength of our business is allowing us to raise our guidance in the back half of the year. And with -- to Albert's point, with the work that's going on across the industry, we're able to come up with a range of scenarios, and we believe that those range of scenarios associated with potential timing of all this would allow us to absorb any impact this year based again on the underlying strength of our business today and performance today.
And maybe, Amit, you can comment on the
Yes. So I think your question was largely around COMIRNATY. So I'll mention the quarter and then our expectations for the season. COMIRNATY had a very strong quarter in Q2, and I think that's driven partially by gross to net capability. We've just become much more efficient and managing inventory in the marketplace, and we also saw a continued increase in our market share in the quarter. So that's the quarter. Now as it relates to the season, we don't have a crystal ball, but what we are planning for is we anticipate an indication for the 65-plus population as well as those under 64 with underlying medical conditions. And that largely reflects the dynamic of how people vaccinate in the U.S. today. We also don't anticipate any major changes in coverage by payers for this season. So this could have a modest effect on our vaccination rates, but we anticipate having a very strong season. In addition, I think we're very ready to execute against that. We have our supply and distribution capabilities, which are genuinely unmatched. We have a very robust plan for both physician as well as patient activation, and we monitor sentiment very closely. We've not seen dramatic changes in And we also have very strong contract positions, both in retail and non-retail. So we look forward to the season for the fall.
We'll go next to Chris Schott with JPMorgan.
Just two for me. First on BD and capital allocation. Just what's driving the slightly lower target leverage for the company going forward? I think you lowered it by about a half turn or so. I just was looking for any color there. And just on the BD approach, is the approach here still to target a couple of smaller deals with that $10 billion to $15 billion of capacity you've previously talked about? Or is the thought maybe looking at one larger one. Last really quick 1 just to slip in with just the recent PD-1 VEGF deal, I know you're going to think about doing combos with some of your ADCs. Will we see the Phase III data from those ADCs before you move forward? Or should we start to think about Pfizer starting development of those programs prior to those readouts?
Chris, as usual excellent question, but David can take the first two and then I think the Chris can talk about PD-L1.
So Chris, yes, we've actually improved our target from a leverage perspective down to 2.7 from 3.25x. That's largely because we've improved our cash generation capability over the last -- a little faster than we anticipated post closing of the Seagen acquisition. So we're now sitting at 2.7x. We will continue to delever over time. If we were to do a BD transaction, we might tick back up over that 2.7x, but our objectives to still get down and continue to delever the balance sheet in the long term. Secondly, yes, most likely, we would attend to do a, I'll say, a smaller deal given the fact that our capacity is in the $13 billion ZIP code at this moment. And so I would expect this more from a smaller perspective from a transaction
Yes. And it [indiscernible].
It's 13 only because we have essentially allocated some of 3SBio transaction funds against our BD target.
Thank you, Dave. And Chris, how do you think about developing the PD-L1 here that I know we closed and we are very rapidly executed on the plan even before we could close.
Thank you very much. As you know, we do have ongoing programs with the IDCs SV PD-L1, and that's all in Phase III. We're not going to wait for readout from these studies, and we'll start earlier with Phase I/II combinations this year. In fact, with those ADCs in combination with 707. How we look at 707, it's really to be a potential backbone to replace single-agent PD-1, PD-L1. It's got a unique structure and the preclinical data suggests potential best in class regarding high affinity for PD-1 inhibition and and potentially increase anti-angiogenic activity. You've seen the overall response rate in the first-line setting of 65%. We're confident in this molecule across the cancer areas or tumor areas that -- where we have significant capability, including thoracic GU and GI and we'll later this year announce a Phase III program 707.
Thank you, Chris. I really -- my team got me very excited about this molecule and they have presented to me a very aggressive development plan, but they plan to execute starting this year. We will share more news about the plan when we are in the year when we kick off the execution.
We'll go next to Alex Hammond with Wolfe Research.
I guess one on MSN, just given your recently announced DTC patient option for purchasing Eliquis, how should we consider the applicability of this program to the remainder of your portfolio?
Thank you, Alexander. I think it very much will help. I can tell you that the direct-to-consumer was one of the four things that the letter of President Trump requested from me. From me and everybody else. We think it is a fantastic way to go ahead. So we will work collaboratively to do it. Clearly, Pfizer has a good experience from the Pfizer for all, where we have a direct-to-consumer website that has a very, very high traffic. And also now we launched together with our partner, BMS, the Eliquis 360, which exactly does work basically that President Trump is asking us to do. Actually, I'm sure you've noticed that he treated himself. Here, he treated actually about the Eliquis. And also, we have serious discussions in the industry. So I have connected -- of course, we had the Board, the CEO that we discussed it and also myself and connecting very often individually with all the major companies. And they are all ready to roll up the sleeves and execute something like that. So it remains to be seen. I don't want to speak more, as I said, because we are in active discussions.
We'll go next to Mohit Bansal with Wells Fargo.
Dave, I have a question regarding guidance. It does seem like you had quite a good quarter this quarter. And -- there is FX tailwind as well as operational reasons here. So wondering what is driving the guidance or even like not even like a in it to the higher end of the range, just would love to know your thought process in setting this guidance at this point.
Yes. Thank you. I think as we looked at guidance, as I said, we are essentially raising bottom in by $0.30 and then absorbing the $0.20 charge for 3SBio transaction. At the same time, we are looking at our future Q3 and Q4, and we're essentially derisking some of that. So this underlying strength of our business would have us increasing guidance even further from a profit perspective. But we, at this point in time, given the volatility that's potentially ahead of us in COVID, we think it's prudent to wait, hold, see how Q3 and Q4 come about and then update as appropriate from that perspective.
Thank you, Dave. .
We'll go next to Courtney Breen with Bernstein.
A couple for me. The first is on the efficiency that we're seeing kind of in your operating model and particularly around SG&A. It would be great if you're able to kind of give us some extra context around kind of where you kind of reallocating and investing versus where you're able to pull back and kind of some more context and detail and color around that, both within the U.S. and ex U.S.? And then secondarily, you've given us somewhat detail in terms of M&A and the $13 billion range, but can you give us a little bit more insight on the priorities? I know you've talked about kind of the obesity opportunity or cardiometabolic opportunity and immunology being areas of interest. Can you talk about kind of whether they still rank near the top or how you're seeing kind of opportunities out there that you might be interested in?
Thank you, Courtney. Let's time with Alexander to speak about the efficiency in international, and then Amir can chime in on the U.S. .
Thanks for the questions. You remember about 18 months ago, when we started this journey at the International division, we said we will pick our growth driver, both from an in-line standpoint and the new product. And that combination will be different country by country based on the environment, the potential and the population to treat. That's what we did. So we've identified in our top 16 markets, those combinations, and then we invest to win in the sense that we looked at the share of voice that we need and then we reduce our investment everywhere else so that we can win in this area. And clearly, the growth that we are seeing coming out of that portfolio of assets where we focus is really remarkable because it's not just that we grew 6% at the international level overall, but it's also the quality of the growth. You see that we grow 9% in emerging markets, 9% in China, 7% in Europe. So it's kind of across the geography and it's also across the different category area, right? So specialty grew 9% driven by Primary care grew 4%, 6% excluding COVID, driven by Eliquis and our vaccines, and oncology grew 6% driven by and others. So clearly, it's really how we reduce the cost around the noncore assets and the non-key country that help us double down on the area where we wanted to grow.
Thank you, Alexander. Amir? .
One, I'll give you a couple of different examples. When we implemented our new commercial model at the beginning of last year, we put in place a few fundamentals. One was having everything in one place and the benefit of scale. So for instance, we consolidated to a single agency partner, and that drove major efficiencies across the business. Second thing is we undertook a major resource reallocation exercise, both in terms of the products where we're investing as well as the channels that we're investing into. And thirdly, we've just embraced technology and the way that technology can drive efficiency across every aspect of our consumer campaigns, our physician targeting and also Albert referred to our use of Pfizer Pflash and investment in the Pfizer brand, which, for instance, in the categories where we've deployed that, that model has resulted in about a 20% decrease in the cost per new NBRx. So these are just examples of how we're driving efficiency across the business.
And it is -- I think for me, what really pleased me on is that we are able to reduce our cost, and at the same time, continue growing the top line, which is the key here. And the Pfizer was always good in commercial. I don't think that we lost a little bit our way during the COVID because the priorities you can understand, where 100% devotion of the whole company to do something like that. But I'm very proud and pleased that we got up to our feet, and we now have developed a commercial machine, but it is really honoring the Pfizer tradition and taking it to the next level. And I will finish with some questions from the M&A. You asked what would be the range in terms of priorities. And in terms of dollars, Dave they talk to you. Clearly, with those dollars probably will be in fewer smaller transactions rather than one transaction or the remaining capital allocation. Clearly will be in the four areas that we are now active, which is the oncology, the vaccines, the internal medicine with cardiometabolic and obesity and with the IMI. On obesity, which is your specific question, clearly, we have interest in this area because this is an area that it is very big. Science is breaking. A lot of new things are coming up. And we have tremendous development capabilities in primary care type of business, and we have also tremendous commercial opportunities. And by the way, there is plenty of offering right now. I mean in China, China is booming in terms of how many opportunities we have -- our strategy on the Andrew that is responsible for. He just came back from week long trip to China, and the opportunities are really, really very big. So also, there are here opportunities in the U.S. So there is a good substrate that we can source We will be very disciplined with our company. We will not overpay. We will pay the real value that the asset present. With that, please go to the next question.
We'll go next to Dave Risinger with Leer Inc.
Yes. So Albert, thank you for helping lead discussions with the administration to ensure the future success of U.S. biopharmaceutical innovation. Since you briefly mentioned competition from China, has Pfizer been helping the administration understand the very strong support that the Chinese government provides to local biotech companies based in China? I asked the question given significant pressures on biotech companies in the United States.
Thank you, David. Also thank you for your kind words. I do. And I'm very vocal and I speak at all levels and not only in the administration, but also in the Senate in the house. This is something that unite, I would say, one of the very few things that unites both Democrats and Republicans as they concern about China emerging superiority in several technology areas, but where it is very impressive it is in the biotech. And I very clearly indicate that this is happening, it is real. I'll give you just some examples. In May, for the first time, Axios reported on the clinical studies in the world right now, China has the leading -- surpassed the U.S. I did reserve myself on publications that are happening from Chinese scientists right now. And in CRISPR, for example, just to give one area, 42% of the global publications coming from time. Actually, the structural biology, which is always was their 62% from China. And to end up, they are not doing -- they're actually they are -- they have filed more patents than US this year. And so they are protecting well intellectual property and they are enhancing access to their local markets, and they are giving tremendous support, monetize support to their biotechnical ecosystem, which encourages a lot of private money going there. I explained all of that to the administration. And I think this, and that's why I said before, we all look to find ways that from one hand, affordability and access of the American patients. On the other hand, to the crown jewel, which is the biotech industry, needs to be supported by the government, by the Congress so that we can -- they so much you can do to slow down side. You won't slow them down. They are very good. What we can do is to focus to be better than that, and that should be our goal. .
We'll go next to Kerry Holford with Berenberg.
Firstly, looking at ADCETRIS to Q2 performance was a little weaker than anticipated. I understand these drugs are perhaps facing increased competitive pressures, we'll be interested to your strategy for reinvigorating that growth of those assets ex And then secondly, a question on the guidance, specifically tax and if I missed this earlier. But Dave, what has changed with regard to the tax outlook for this year? And how sustainable is this underlying 13% tax rate going forward?
Dave, you want to start with that and then I
Yes. Just on the tax side, there were some onetime discrete items that allowed us to improve our tax position this year. I would expect going forward with the new tax regs globally that we would be largely closer to the 15% level from a global tax perspective in the long term. .
thanks for the question. I think your question is largely around the Seagen portfolio on the products. So we feel very good about how we integrated those products. As an example, we were able to cross-train all of our field forces, and now we're seeing the benefit of that come through in commercial performance. So if I look at Q2 and the entirety of our Seagen commercial portfolio, we grew 15% year-over-year. And that was while managing some of the competitive headwinds that you alluded to on ADCETRIS, which we are starting to see now settle. In particular, we feel very good about the growth in We have greater than 50% market share in the first line, and we see headroom to continue to expand that share especially in the cisplatinum eligible population where we are very focused. And it's also important to note that as part of the Seagen transaction, it was not only the in-line products, but the portfolio that came with it, which continues to perform very well.
We'll go next to Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.
Kind of a follow-up to the prior question. 1.5 years into the integration of Seagen, and really aside from what do you believe are the 2 or 3 assets that have the potential to really drive a positive IRR for the $42 billion or so that you spent? And kind of a follow-up there is part of the market could SV capture in non-small cell lung cancer, if and when eventually approved?
Yes. I'll ask Chris comment. Let's talk that there is four main assets. But when we acquired the company, they were around $2 billion, even less of revenues. They will grow by year 2030 to $10 billion. Now of course, the value was not only on that. The value was mainly in the platform of the ABC that we go together with the intellectual property, the capability, the people and the assets. And I will ask Chris to comment on the most important things that are coming out in the short term, medium-term and long-term process. .
Thank you very much. So in the short term, said, and the readouts for the muscle invasive bladder cancer studies. As you recall, the current indication is 18,000 patients, the new indications will be up to 28,000. So this both platinum-eligible and platinum ineligible, and we expect those readouts in the next 6 months. And potentially, they could change the standard of care for this population. This next wave of studies we started Phase III trials in SV, sigvotatug vedotin. The second-line study is now fully recruited. In fact, it recruited much quicker than we expected. In the second-line space, what we've seen so far in the Phase I study in a late-line population with a 31% overall response rate and medium overall survival, albeit a single-line experience of 16.3 months. So that gives us confidence in SV. It's a payloads and what we've seen with the other studies with vedotin payloads, including with versus this potentially synergistic activity when we combine it with an anti-PD-1. So SV plus pembrolizumab has now been combined. As you know, overall, we've seen a response rate of approximately 60%. But in those -- in the population specifically, that's TPS-high or PD-L1 high expression, all patients so far in the Phase I trial have responded. And that obviously is very favorable to what you would expect from pembrolizumab alone.
The next molecule PD-L1B. That's it, again, another first-in-class molecule. We're accelerating that into a Phase III program for head-and-neck cancer, where we've seen response rate just shy of 60% in the combination with pembrolizumab. And then there's a whole new group of ADCs coming with a 1 payload, including a follow-up to ADCETRIS, they currently 2 or 3 of these molecules showing highly encouraging data in Phase I, and we'll update you in the future about those.
Thank you. So as I said, we are confident that Antony will recuperate the investment with a good return in the season, but I think it's transforming our oncology portfolio and business.
We'll go next to Carter Gould with Cantor.
I'm going to go back to the policy side. I guess, Albert, should investors have any expectation around a comprehensive deal that addresses the present objectives across MSN and tariffs, but also addresses the industry's concerns around enforcing IP protection, compounding, parity, IRA implementation. And then separately, put up a solid quarter year-on-year, but this is sort of the fourth quarter in a row where sequential growth was more muted or meager, is Vyndaqel U.S. growth behind us, and I guess an answer in that can help frame the push-pulls between price and competition?
Yes. Let me give a brief answer to the policy. Look, I don't know. We are in very active discussions. You know that the President is inpatient, so he wants the results quickly. We also want to come to a resolution quickly because I want to offer a certain to all of us and all of you as much as you can have in this period of time. Are we going to -- are we discussing in addition to all the things that are related MSN and tariffs, also things that are related with PBM reform, with 340B, with the penalty, absolutely. And you know that the PBM reforms is universally accepted that this to happen. There was a bipartisan bill and there is a clear indication that the President has spoken so many times about the Also with the bill penalty. He has spoken about it and also the Secretary candidate spoke about it. And also, we are working on it. And of course, the 340B has become a major, major problem, right? Now the 340B is expected to exceed $62 billion this year. It's a program that has become than Medicare Medicaid combined. So that's all fraud prices, but all of that is valuable goes from us out there to, let's say, hospitals and -- this value is not passed to the patients because they mark up those products in tremendous amounts, way more than you see in margin. .
And we can't afford that. So we are discussing, we're explaining. It's more complicated. That's going to be because it involves hospital. But the program is very good for the small hospital that was intended. This is not about not having 340B. It's about having an abuse in the system. So Amit, you want to state next question.
I can -- I'll speak quickly about Vyndaqel in the U.S., and then we'll touch on international, too. In the U.S., yes, we had a very strong quarter. We had 15% year-over-year growth. We maintained momentum in performance versus Q1, and there's a lot that's going on in this market right now. So that performance is a function of improving diagnosis as well as improving favorability dynamics. So we continue to lead in the face of two competitors coming into that market, both in terms of total market share, but also importantly, lead in terms of first-line treatment-naive patient share. So we've got with TRx momentum and that's influenced the growth. KEYTRUDA is taking some first-line share, and it's a little too early to tell about the dynamics of we'll keep a close eye on that for the second half of the year. Now we do expect continued TRx volume growth, but there will be GTM pressure on U.S. performance. And that's a function of both the Medicare Part D design but also a result of contracting to maintain access for vedotin, both in Medicare and commercial, where we've maintained 90% access for the brand. So we do expect those dynamics to impact our sequential growth in the back half of this year?
Yes. For international, so we have a very strong dynamic. So we have grown 32% for the quarter. But actually, since the beginning of the year, we have grown our patient treated by 50%. So it's clearly the -- what I was describing at the beginning in terms of focus on the key assets where we think we can have an impact. This one is clearly the demonstration of our focus on execution.
Moving forward, we think we're going to continue to grow on this product for three reasons. First, the WCS rate in international in most of our key markets is still significantly below what we have in the U.S. and we normally see in this type of disease. Two, the Access takes a lot of time in international. You need to negotiate price and access in every single country, and it took us 5 years just to get to where we are, and competition will have to follow the same time line to get to the type of access that we get.
Just to illustrate my point is we just unlock U.K. and Australia at the end of last year. And we just unlocked South Korea at the beginning of this quarter. So just to give you a sense of it takes time and now we have access, we are unlocking the potential of those patients being in treated. And then finally, we think that the profile of our product and the experience of our key centers will help us establish to standard of care that we have developed with these assets. So we are very confident with the potential future growth of
Yes. And I'm very impressed with the performance in the coming international the way that we were not counting on that product before and now suddenly we see very big thrive. We're not counting in international and mainly U.S. And let's go to the next question, please.
We'll go next to Assad Haider with Goldman Sachs.
Albert, just one more, if I may, on the policy front. Just given the comments you just made and then triangulating those back to your comments on MFN that it's now quantified and reflected into guidance to some extent, maybe just talk about what could cause large swings to those expectations from here? Or is your high-level view that we are now getting more granular around the central and potentially narrow range of outcomes directionally speaking?
I mean our team is all over modeling several scenarios. There is no scenario that we have not assessed. There is no scenario, but we have not filed mitigation plans. And there is no scenario to haven't the probability of success. But the truth is that we don't know what will be because all of that are right now under active discussion. So -- and even if I have some ideas where we should increase of happening and where decrease happening, it's not appropriate now in the middle of the discussions and negotiations. We don't open the counts, right? So I can't really do that.
We'll go next to Umer Raffat with Evercore.
So I'll spare the MFN question, but I did want to ask Albert, I feel like some of the points you're making on this call regarding the China biotech ecosystem. Could possibly resonate with the administration. But I guess, how is -- and I'm not even talking Pfizer specifically, but the industry broadly has been very active with a lot of out-licensing transactions to find the next layer innovation. So I guess is administration pushing back with sort of balancing those two? And then separately, on your oncology side, I feel like this B6A trial in lung will obviously be very, very important. And I was very intrigued to see that you shrunk the sample size from 670 down to 470, which presumably signals increased confidence. And my question is, did you take any interim look to see how the is tracking?
Let me take the China one and then I ask Chris, of course, to comment on the oncology. Look, I mean there is a lot of sensitivity in the and Senate in the house about everything that is happening in time, right? But I have to say the sensitivity is way more on things that we transfer there, technology that we transfer, then vice versa, things that we take from them to develop them and manufacture in the U.S., for example, our and I discussed the Chinese deal that we did with the members of the Congress, many members of the Congress. And I explained that we didn't give anything. We took their science and the license to develop, we would do it globally, not in China, to manufacturing. We will do it in the U.S., not in China. And to commercialize it and we'll do it in the whole world and actually not in China yet because we don't have the license yet. So I think less sensitivity on this two ways. But don't take me wrong. China is something that is very high in the radar of the political life of the U.S. and we need to be careful with that. Now let's go, Chris.
Thanks for the question, So usually for studies, we recalculate effect size or study size based on emerging data from ongoing Phase I/II trials. And we did not unblind and there's no unblinding of ongoing Phase III programs.
I knew that you will not so much. So let's go to the next question, please.
We'll go next to Rajesh Kumar with HSBC.
The first one is on -- you said you'll absorb the potential impact from the letter this year. Can you confirm that if there were tariffs, et cetera, you can say the same about the next year as well. I know you don't have a guidance, but in terms of how prepared you are with inventory, et cetera and the pricing dynamics. Do you think current consensus sort of captures the effect for the next year?
The second one is on the balance sheet. Clearly, you are going with a lower financial gearing target and in effect, that gives you a bit more leeway on a lot of things. When you think of capital allocation, do you think you need to add more types of assets in oncology? Or would most of the balance sheet capacity be deployed in obesity, immunology, other areas that is if you have to deploy capital in oncology or different indications or different mechanisms you still need to add, then would you be comfortable going over the 2.7x leverage?
Let's start with Dave, and then we will move to Andreas .
Yes. So as it relates to future years, '26 and '27, no, we can't -- we're not confirming or discussing the implication of tariffs or MFN on those out years. Once we have definitive information and knowledge will come back and share that with everyone. Secondly, on -- just from a BD perspective, even though others can comment on this as well, we have lowered our target or improved our target to 2.7x because we are already at 2.7x. So it's hard to have a target that we've exceeded so dramatically because our business has done so well. And if an opportunity were to come along that made sense for us from a deep BD perspective, obviously, the -- we would out -- we would outstrip the target to be higher just like we did with Seagen, and we worked to get us back down to 2.7 over time. And maybe to Albert's point earlier, from a BD perspective, we're interested across the four areas in which we focus today and we'll continue to evaluate assets on the market in all of those four areas.
Andre?
Yes, just add to Dave's comments. Look, I think every potential licensing deal acquisition is value driven, although there is obviously some value and diversification. We've historically been very active through Seagen and more recently, 3SBio on oncology. However, as you know, Pfizer has a strong commercial heritage with significant strength in areas such as internal medicine, I&I. And obviously, we've got landmark drugs in those areas. So we believe we have a right to will. And if the right opportunity comes up at the right price, you can be sure that we're going to pursue it.
We'll go next to Tim Anderson with Bank of America.
I have a question on IRA. So you guys have two drugs where prices are being negotiated in the current year for implementation in '27, that's Ibrance, XTANDI -- one fear that at least we've had is that the new administration may press harder per bigger discount versus last year, potentially just to make a point. in general, not just for Pfizer product. So you're in the midst of those negotiations. Any color you can provide such as how those discussions are lining up with what you expected before those negotiations begin.
Look, as we said, we're in the middle of this negotiation again for the same reason, I can -- actually, it's not a lot by law to disclose aspects of the the negotiation. But I would say something. We have two products, as you said, for '27. Both of them are losing patent in '27. So for us, of course, we try to achieve the best, we can in the negotiations of the prices. But the heat on us is very small. The NPV is very small because it's really a few months of it -- it depends on the product, right?
We'll go next to Steve Scala with Cowen.
Two questions. The first one, I apologize, is on MFN. But you have quantified the assumed impact of MFN in 2025, but you won't share your estimate. But I assume it's a big number, well above $500 million for Q4 alone and maybe several times that, which implies a strikingly high number for 2026. And I'm just wondering whether you would walk that number down. Second for Dave, you noted the positive underlying operational performance year-to-date. You also noted the positive inflection in FX year-to-date. Curious how the COVID expectations have changed. It seems they must have come down since revenue guidance is flat or unchanged or something else in the business turned in a little bit light?
Maybe on the COVID side, I don't know that our expectations at this moment have changed, but we still have a lot yet to go in Q3 and Q4. So as I think about our future projections, we're still internally working to achieve our number. But as my guidance reflects, we've now derisked some of that delivery in Q3, Q4. So I don't think anything has changed. We just know that COVID by itself because of the nature of that business will always be a little bit more sensitive and a little bit more fluid and harder to predict quarter-over-quarter. So this is just allowing us to derisk that a bit. And then on the MFN perspective, we're not going to comment on those numbers at this point. Thank you, though.
And the final question.
Our final question comes from Terence Flynn with Morgan Stanley.
Great. Maybe just two on the pipeline. Just for atemaciclib, I was wondering if we'll get an update from the Phase II study on PFS potentially at San Antonio later this year? I know you've already committed moving into Phase III, but I don't think we've seen anything on durability there. And then on LORBRENA, any thoughts about exploring that in the adjuvant setting?
Chris.
Thank you for the question. So atirmociclib, you're correct, as we stated, we're focusing now on the first-line space and focusing with 6 for second line, we remain very confident in a on all the data we've seen and the study, the first-line trial in ER-positive, HER2 negative breast cancer. The study is recruiting extremely well. In fact, both times faster than we actually planned or predicted. We've not disclosed the date when we will show on the second line, but we'll keep you posted on that. For there is no current plan for an adjuvant study.
Thank you very much. And thank you for your attention. Just I want to say that I'm very pleased with the execution of this team in terms of the targets that we have set. I will describe Pfizer right now as a company with a very strong floor and no ceiling. And we plan to maintain the prudent way of allocating capital, the focus on execution, the relentless focus on our pipeline, productivity and big assets and improving our margins by the use of technology, focus and simplification of our business process. Thank you very much and enjoy your summer to those that they didn't take vacation, like me.
This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.
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Pfizer — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
Pfizer — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: $14,7 Mrd. (+10% operativ)
- Adjusted EPS: $0,78 (bereinigtes verwässertes Ergebnis je Aktie); reported $0,51
- Bruttomarge: ~76% (bereinigt)
- OpEx: $5,8 Mrd. (−8% operativ, bereinigt)
- Wachstumsprodukte: $4,7 Mrd. YTD (+15% operativ)
- Treiber: Vyndaqel, PAXLOVID und Eliquis trugen maßgeblich zum Quartalswachstum
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- R&D-Fokus: Priorität auf steigender F&E-Produktivität (KI, Automatisierung); Schlüsselprogramme: Elrexfio (Multiple Myelom), SV (NSCLC), Hympavzi (Hämophilie), C.difficile-Impfstoff.
- Margeninitiative: Produktivitätsprogramme und Fertigungsoptimierung treiben Margenausbau; Ziel: $4,5 Mrd. Einsparungen bis Ende 2025, $7,7 Mrd. bis Ende 2027.
- Kapitalallokation: Dividende beibehalten; BD-Kapazität ≈ $13 Mrd.; neues Brutto-Verschuldungsziel ~2,7x (Deleveraging-Priorität).
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Umsatzguidance: $61–64 Mrd. für FY 2025
- EPS-Guidance: $2,90–3,10 (Erhöhung um $0,10; inkl. $0,20 IPRD-Aufwand für 3SBio)
- Kostenrahmen: adjusted SI&A $13,1–14,1 Mrd.; adjusted R&D $10,4–11,4 Mrd.; effektiver Steuersatz ~13%
- Risiken: Einfluss von MFN/Importzöllen, COVID-Nachfragevolatilität; FX-Favorability ist bereits teilweise eingepreist.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Politikrisiken: MFN/Preisforderungen und Zölle zentral — Management führt laufende Gespräche mit US-Behörden, verweigert konkrete Quantifizierung.
- COVID & Erstattung: Diskussionen zu CDC-Empfehlungen, Part D/340B-Impacts und Saisonalität beeinflussen Prognoseunsicherheit für Q3/Q4.
- BD & Verschuldung: Erwartung eher kleinere bis mittlere Transaktionen; BD-Kapazität ~ $13 Mrd.; Zielverschuldung 2,7x, kann temporär steigen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Operatives Momentum mit Umsatz- und EPS-Stärke sowie erhöhter EPS-Guidance; klare Pipeline-Katalysatoren und substanzielle Margenprogramme stützen die Aktie. Hauptwarnungen bleiben politische Maßnahmen (MFN, Zölle), Steuer-/Erstattungsdruck und COVID-Volatilität — Monitoring dieser Policy-Entwicklungen ist entscheidend.
Pfizer — Special Call - Pfizer Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Good day, everyone, and welcome to Pfizer Pflash, a spotlight on Pfizer's breast cancer portfolio. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Francesca DeMartino, Chief Investor Relations Officer and Senior Vice President. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Thank you and good morning everyone. I'm Francesca DeMartino, Chief Investor Relations Officer. On behalf of the Pfizer team, thank you for joining us for our fifth Pfizer Pflash webcast. Today's call will be recorded and will be available for replay on our IR website at pfizer.com.
As a reminder, our Pfizer Pflash series is intended to serve as an educational deep dive into our pipeline products and people. Each call will spotlight a specific product, therapeutic area, or growth initiative, and give you an opportunity to hear from and interact with our business leaders.
Today's session will begin with a short conversation followed by live Q&A. As a reminder, this call is intended only for the investment community including our sell-side analysts and institutional investors. If you're unable to join the entirety of the event, you can find the replay available on our IR website.
I want to note that on today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements. I encourage you to view Slide 2 in our presentation and the disclosures in our SEC filings, which are all available on our IR website at pfizer.com. Forward-looking statements on the call are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties speak only as of the call's original date, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of the statements.
With that let's get started.
As you know, breast cancer is a key therapeutic area of focus for Pfizer, with a portfolio that seeks to address multiple breast cancer subtypes in patient populations. Today, we will provide insight into our breast cancer strategy and pipeline that we believe has the potential to be a key driver of growth for our oncology business. It is a privilege to have you all with us as we discuss Pfizer's breast cancer portfolio.
Before we move to the main discussion, let me take a moment to introduce our speakers, Megan O'Meara, Head of Oncology, Early Clinical Development; and Johanna Bendell, Chief Development Officer for Oncology. Megan and Johanna each have central roles in the clinical development of Pfizer's innovative oncology medicines and product candidates. Megan and Johanna, welcome, and thank you so much for joining us today.
Can you please start by introducing yourselves and give a brief overview of your current role and experience?
Thank you, Francesca. I'm happy to be here today with Johanna to talk about Pfizer's progress in developing potential new medicines for the treatment of breast cancer. In my role as Pfizer's Head of Early Clinical Development and Oncology, I'm responsible for clinical development across Pfizer's early stage oncology portfolio, developing the clinical strategy that creates the foundation for our programs to move into pivotal studies.
I joined Pfizer through the acquisition of Seagen, where I spent more than 12 years, and most recently led both early and late stage clinical development.
And with that, I'll turn it over to Johanna.
Thank you, Megan. I'm Johanna Bendell, Chief Development Officer for Oncology, and I'm responsible for the strategy and execution of clinical development for all of Pfizer's oncology late stage portfolio.
I very recently joined Pfizer from Roche, where I served as Global Head of Oncology, leading discovery and early clinical development.
I'm very excited to be joining Pfizer and looking forward to working with the thousands of Pfizer colleagues who every day strive to deliver new and better medicines to patients with cancer.
And with that, I'll turn it back over to Francesca.
Thank you both for your introduction and let's get started.
Johanna, I'll ask you to kick things off today. Would you please give us a brief reminder of Pfizer's oncology strategy and where breast cancer fits into the oncology portfolio?
Thank you, Francesca. I'd be happy to get us started. At a high level, our strategy is driven by our goal of accelerating breakthroughs that can help people with cancer live better and longer lives. Pfizer's oncology strategy can be described in two dimensions.
The first dimension includes three core therapeutic modalities, each of which are enabled by deep technical expertise. First are small molecules where we have established world-class drug discovery and medicinal chemistry expertise. We also have core strengths and large molecular biologics enabled by our capabilities in protein engineering and antibody design.
And finally, with the acquisition of Seagen, we have an industry-leading platform and know-how to deliver ADCs or antibody drug conjugates, a modality that very neatly sits at the intersection of small molecules and biologics.
Here we are focused on the next generation of potentially better and safer ADCs, leveraging new targets with improved conjugation technologies and highly differentiated anti-cancer payloads.
The second dimension covers the cancer indications that we are prioritizing. Specifically, we continue to build on Pfizer's established presence in breast cancer, as we will focus on today, along with Genitourinary cancers, Hematologic Malignancies, and Thoracic cancers. We also remained interested in capitalizing on emerging opportunities in Gastrointestinal cancers.
For example, the practice changing results with the combination of BRAFTOVI, cetuximab, and modified FOLFOX6, as reported recently at ASCO for our breakwater trial in BRAF-mutant colorectal cancer.
Thanks, Johanna. To help orient the discussion, can you please provide a brief overview of breast cancer and the ways in which physicians classify and treat breast cancer?
Certainly. Following many years of research, we know that breast cancer is a collection of multiple diseases and that the details for each patient are essential to the treatment strategy. As shown in the left panel, one straightforward way to classify breast cancer is as early, locally advanced or metastatic, with worsening prognosis as one moves from early to metastatic disease.
These classifications differ based on the types of cells involved and whether the cancerous cells have spread. Early breast cancer is described by disease that has not spread beyond the breast or axillary lymph nodes and is commonly treated with combinations of surgery, including lumpectomy or mastectomy and radiation therapy, followed by hormone therapy.
Locally advanced breast cancer is where cancer cells have spread into the surrounding areas but not yet to distant locations. And in metastatic disease, the spread of cancer cells is more significant and includes distant sites in the body. Treatment of later stage and or metastatic disease typically involves systemic therapies such as combinations of hormone therapy, chemotherapy, targeted therapy, and immunotherapy.
Another way to classify breast cancer is by the molecular signatures, such as protein expression patterns or specific genetic mutations. For the approximately 330,000 women and men diagnosed with breast cancer in the U.S. each year, this classification is key to guiding systemic therapy decisions.
The molecular signature with the highest incidence is expression of a hormone receptor, often abbreviated as HR, which includes estrogen and progesterone receptors. A second subset is marked by the expression of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2, abbreviated as HER2.
Tumors may be positive or negative for HR and HER2 expression. The majority, approximately 65% to 70% of breast cancers are HR positive, HER2 negative.
Treatment of HR positive breast cancer includes hormone therapy, chemotherapy, and targeted therapy. HER2 positive cancers occur in about 15% to 20% of patients, and treatment includes HER2 targeted ADCs and Tyrosine kinase inhibitors.
Triple negative breast cancer or TNBC is a subtype characterized by a lack of expression of estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and HER2 and represents approximately 10% to 15% of patients. The absence of treatment currently relies largely on general cytotoxic, oh sorry, -- the absence of these HER2 and HR targets means that targeted therapies are less relevant for TNBC.
Instead, treatment currently relies largely on General Cytotoxic agents such as taxanes and platinum-based chemotherapy. There's also a subgroup of patients with low expression of HER2, referred to as HER2 low patients, that nests across the HR positive and TNBC groups.
Thank you. That's a very helpful anchor for the discussion. Let's talk briefly about Ibrance, a medicine that has been a cornerstone in building Pfizer's breast cancer franchise. How is Pfizer thinking about the future of Ibrance and its broader breast cancer franchise with Ibrance coming off patent in the next few years?
Ibrance is Pfizer's CDK4/6 selective tyrosine kinase inhibitor that has become a cell cycle inhibitor backbone therapy for breast cancer treatment. Since its initial FDA approval 10 years ago, Ibrance has continued to demonstrate its value as a standard of care first line treatment for HR positive, HER2 negative metastatic breast cancer, and has now been prescribed to over 838,000 patients and approved in 108 countries.
And Ibrance is still delivering important results for patients, including the recent FDA approval of the addition of inavolisib, a PI3 kinase inhibitor to Ibrance plus fulvestrant, which was shown in the INAVO120 study to improve overall survival in PI3 -- PIK3CA mutated, HR positive, HER2 negative endocrine resistant, locally advanced, and metastatic breast cancer.
This cross labeling also provides an additional measure of differentiation versus other CDK4/6 inhibitors. In addition, the readout for the PATINA study, in which Ibrance was added to standard of care first line maintenance, demonstrated improved progression free survival in HR positive, HER2 positive metastatic breast cancer.
Results of the PATINA study were presented at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Conference last December and may provide another future opportunity for label expansion.
In short, Ibrance has established a strong legacy in breast cancer treatment and we are expanding on this legacy by delivering important breast cancer medicines for patients and building a rich pipeline of potential therapies across the breast cancer spectrum.
Thank you, Johanna. At this point, I'd like to turn the discussion to the pipeline. Can you walk us through Pfizer's breast cancer pipeline and some of the key opportunities for growth?
Absolutely. Our clinical pipeline for breast cancer includes small molecules and ADCs and spans from the early and neo-adjuvant settings, all the way to later lines of therapy for patients whose disease has relapsed or progressed following prior therapies.
We see multiple avenues to potentially address unmet need and drive growth. First, our potential label expansion opportunities for approved products, such as moving to Kaiser or HER2 inhibitor into earlier lines of therapy, including first line maintenance and adjuvant settings for HER2 positive disease.
Another opportunity is for Ibrance in HR positive, HER2 positive maintenance, as well as frontline therapy and endocrine resistant HR positive, HER2 negative, PIK3CA mutant settings.
A second path to potential growth is the development plan for our highly selective CDK4 Inhibitor, Atirmociclib. Our objectives here are to position Atirmo as the potential next generation cell cycle therapy backbone, highlight its potential in both adjuvant and frontline settings across HER2 negative and potentially HER2 positive disease, and identify potential advantages over competitor CDK4/6 inhibitors such as ribociclib and abemaciclib.
A third path to potential growth is with our pipeline of multiple novel agents and mechanisms of action, including our KAT6 inhibitor, our CDK-2 inhibitor, and the HER2 targeted ADC disitamab vedotin or DV. These programs seek to test the potential for deeper and more durable responses, the potential to address mechanisms of resistance, and the potential for impact in TNBC.
Drawing on our leading discovery and development capabilities across small molecules, ADCs, and non-ADC biologics. We also have discovery and preclinical stage programs that we look forward to sharing in the future.
Let's take a deeper dive on atermociclib. Megan, what makes a selective CDK4 inhibitor so interesting? What are the plans for the program? And how are they supported by the data you have seen so far?
Atirmociclib is our highly selective CDK4 inhibitor that was discovered and developed in-house. Our objectives in developing a next-gen CDK4 inhibitor for breast cancer were twofold. First, we wanted to maximize CDK4 inhibition in order to maximize efficacy. The majority of HR positive breast cancers express low levels of CDK6, making CDK4 the likely cell cycle driver in this subtype.
In addition, complete CDK4 inhibition with CDK4/6 inhibitors is quite challenging due to the potential for dose limiting hematologic adverse events, which brings us to the second objective, which is to reduce the incidence and severity of these hematologic adverse events. CDK4/6 inhibitors can lead to severe neutropenia, which is a subtype of a low white blood cell count that can lead to potential risk for infections in some patients.
And these adverse events are largely due to the contribution of CDK6 inhibition. Thus, by enhancing the selectivity for CDK4, we believe we can potentially achieve both goals. This strategy led to a atirmociclib, a potentially best in class inhibitor, with a 33-fold greater selectivity for CDK4 versus CDK6.
Our clinical development plans for atirmo are focused on the adjuvant and first line settings, and we have been very encouraged by the clinical data we've seen. Last year at San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium, we reported data for a atirmo plus letrozole in the frontline setting for HR positive, HER2 negative metastatic breast cancer.
Preliminary efficacy from a Phase I/II study is shown in the waterfall plot on the left side. For those not familiar with waterfall plots, what you want to see is the bars going down, as you can see on the left-hand side of this slide, and those bars going down are associated with tumor shrinkage. And specifically, the objective response rate, or ORR was very promising at 61%, and numerically higher than approved CDK4/6 inhibitors in similar treatment settings. While the median duration of response was not reached, we were encouraged to see that the responses appeared durable and tended to deepen with increasing duration of treatment.
Similarly, the clinical benefit rate, or CBR, which is the aggregate frequency of complete response, partial response, and stable disease, was 94%. The median progression free survival, or PFS, was not yet reached at 16.5 months median duration of follow-up, and 25 of 34 patients, or 74%, were continuing treatment without disease progression at the data cut-off.
In addition, the ORR and CBR were largely independent of driver mutations such as PIK3CA, AKT1, and PTEN. Importantly, the data also highlight a potentially differentiated safety and tolerability profile relative to approved CDK4/6 inhibitors, particularly with respect to neutropenia and gastrointestinal side effects such as diarrhea.
Importantly, there were no Grade IV or V treatment-related adverse events. An improved adverse event profile may in turn lead to potentially fewer dose reductions and discontinuations for atirmo which at 9% and 3% respectively are meaningfully lower than CDK4/6 inhibitors such as ribociclib, abemaciclib, and palbociclib.
Ultimately, this can potentially allow for continuous dosing schedules, a longer duration of therapy, and improved clinical benefit. These and other data have given us confidence to move forward with our four light three study, a pivotal trial testing atirmo versus investigator's choice of CDK4/6 inhibitor, each in combination with letrozole, as frontline treatment in HR positive, HER2 negative, locally advanced, and metastatic breast cancer.
The study, which is actively enrolling, has a progression free survival primary endpoint and secondary endpoints that include overall survival and of response.
In early breast cancer, we have FourLight-2, our controlled Phase II trial in the neoadjuvant setting, testing a Atirmo plus Letrozole versus Letrozole alone. The study is evaluating treatment over a period of 14 days and looking at expression of Ki-67, a potentially prognostic marker for HR positive early breast cancer. This study is also ongoing, and we anticipate data in the fourth quarter of this year.
Thanks, Megan. You mentioned focusing on the front line and adjuvant settings with the Atirmo, and earlier we saw in the pipeline that the KAT6 inhibitor is focused on later lines of therapy. Can you expand on the rationale for that decision, as well as the overall status of the KAT6 program?
Absolutely. Our KAT6 inhibitor, also discovered in-house, is a potential first in class, potent and selective inhibitor of the epigenetic modifiers KAT6A/B. The figure on the left side shows the role of KAT6 in transcriptional control via its Lysine acetyltransferase activity, and how inhibition of KAT6 reduces histone acetylation and in turn decreases gene activation.
Interestingly, KAT6 is a known regulator of estrogen receptor alpha expression, itself the product of the ESR1 gene and one of the markers of HR positive breast cancer. Estrogen receptor alpha is amplified in about 12% of HR positive breast cancer, and elevated expression is associated with poor patient survival outcomes.
On the right side of the Slide are immunohistochemistry data from a mouse tumor model showing the high levels of estrogen receptor expression indicated by the brown color. When these mice receive the KAT6 inhibitor, the levels of estrogen receptor are greatly diminished, demonstrating pharmacologic activity of KAT6 inhibition on levels of estrogen receptor.
A very interesting part of the story is the potential for KAT6 inhibition to overcome resistance to endocrine and CDK4/6 therapy. For example mutations in the ESR1 gene can drive resistance to endocrine therapy.
In a frontline setting, approximately 5% of patients have an ESR1 mutation. However, in second line settings, this number jumps to approximately 40%. All of this provides a compelling rationale to develop our KAT6 inhibitor for second line and later line settings.
Just like atirmociclib, data from our KAT6 inhibitor clinical studies have been very encouraging. We presented exciting Phase I data at San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium in 2024 and just recently updated those data at ASCO.
Results were presented for second line treatment for ER positive, HER2 negative metastatic breast cancer patients who had prior treatment with a CDK4/6 inhibitor.
As reflected in the spider plot and data on the left side, KAT6 inhibitor plus fulvestrant provided both deep and durable responses in the Phase I Study. As you can see on the left, that's the spider plot. What you want to see is the bars going down and continuing down for durability of response.
In a cohort of 43 patients and with a median follow-up of 21.9 months, results included a 37.2% objective response rate, median progression free survival of 10.7 months, and a median duration of response of 15.8 months.
Anti-tumor activity was observed regardless of the presence or absence of actionable mutations, endocrine sensitivity, duration of prior CDK4/6 inhibitor treatment. Prior fulvestrant treatment, and second line or later therapy.
Also, as presented at ASCO, we have identified a dose for a Phase III development that delivered on key metrics, including tolerability, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, and encouraging anti-tumor activity. We anticipate starting a pivotal study for our KAT6 inhibitor in combination with fulvestrant in the second half of 2025.
Thank you, Megan. Definitely a lot to look forward to for both Atirmo and KAT6. Sticking with the novel MOA category, can you briefly speak to the status and scientific rationale behind the CDK2 inhibitor program?
Yes. Our CDK2 inhibitor is a potentially first in class molecule that is designed to delay or overcome resistance to CDK4/6 inhibitors. As shown on the left panel, CDK2 and Cyclin E are key to cell cycle progression. Their absence can sensitize cancer cells to CDK4/6 inhibition, potentially providing a path to deeper and more durable responses with CDK4 inhibitors.
CDK2 has also been implicated in mechanisms of resistance to the CDK4/6 inhibitor palbociclib. And in pre-clinical testing, we've seen that the combination of a Atirmociclib and our CDK2 inhibitor has synergistic anti-tumor activity in palbo-sensitive and resistant ER positive metastatic breast cancer models.
In the middle panel are data from our genome-wide CRISPR screen. The data support CDK2 as both a driver of resistance to CDK4/6 inhibition, but also a sensitizer to CDK4/6 inhibitors, in this case reflected by a lower beta score.
Finally, shown on the right panel, gene expression analyses from the Phase III PALOMA trial evaluating IBRANCE plus fulvestrant, show a reduction in median PFS when accompanied by high Cyclin E expression in patients receiving IBRANCE plus fulvestrant.
Collectively, these data support a role for Cyclin E and thus CDK2 in resistance to IBRANCE. Early clinical data in heavily pre-treated patients, as reported at ESMO 2024, showed promising early anti tumor activity for the combination of a Atirmo plus CDK2 inhibitor and HR positive, HER2 negative metastatic breast cancer.
In this data set, all 18 patients had received prior CDK4/6 inhibitors, and the median lines of prior therapy was 3, but some patients had seen as many as 14. The results in patients with measurable disease showed an objective response rate of approximately 28%, disease control rate of nearly 56%, and median progression free survival of 8.3 months.
The encouraging data from these later line settings, coupled with data demonstrating CDK2 cannot only potentially overcome resistance to CDK4/6 inhibitors, but also mediates sensitization to CDK4/6 inhibition, provided us with confidence to test the Atirmo plus CDK2 combination in frontline settings, and that Phase I study is ongoing.
Megan, thank you so much. Johanna, I'll now come back to you for a couple of late stage programs. Turning first to the Vepdegestrant, what's the status of that program?
Thanks so much, Francesca. Vepdegestrant or Vepdeg is a molecule of the novel mechanism of action. It's a proteolysis targeting Chimera or PROTAC that drives specific degradation of estrogen receptor.
Together with our partner Arvinas, we tested Vepdeg in the Phase III VERITAC-2 trial, which compared Vepdeg versus fulvestrant in second line and later ER positive HER2 negative breast cancer.
Data from VERITAC-2 were recently presented at ASCO, and there was also a concurrent publication in the New England Journal of Medicine.
Vepdeg is the first PROTAC degrader to show clinical benefit in a Phase III trial with a significantly improved progression-free survival in the ESR1 mutant population. 5 months versus 2 months in the Vepdeg arm versus the fulvestrant arm.
The study did not reach statistical significance in the overall population. Overall survival at the key secondary endpoint was not yet mature at the time of analysis. Vepdeg was generally well tolerated, with mostly low grade treatment emergent adverse events, with a safety profile consistent with that observed in previous studies. The data suggests that Vepdeg could potentially play a role in the treatment of ESR1 mutant disease, a group of patients with unmet need.
Arvinas and Pfizer have just recently submitted a new drug application for Vepdeg and is subject to acceptance by the FDA. In addition, we continue to explore opportunities for Vepdeg, including in combination with KAT6, where we have added a combination cohort to the ongoing KAT6 inhibitor Phase I trial.
Thanks very much, Johanna. Lastly, I'd like to turn to TUKYSA, Pfizer's small molecule inhibitor of the HER2 receptor tyrosine kinase, that is approved by FDA in second line and later HER2 positive breast cancer and HER2 positive colorectal cancer. We have shared our expectation for another pivotal Phase III readout for TUKYSA later this year. Can you remind us of the study if the readout is still on track and what you hope to achieve from it?
Of course, the Phase III study you asked about is HER2CLIMB-05, a pivotal study evaluating the addition of TUKYSA to the frontline maintenance regimen of pertuzumab plus trastuzumab in HER2 positive disease. While TUKYSA is currently approved in the second line and later setting, the goal for HER2CLIMB-05 and the data expected to read out later this year, is to bring TUKYSA into earlier treatment settings, establish a new maintenance backbone, and positively impact more patients.
In addition to HER2CLIMB-05, we also have ongoing Phase III trials in the second line and adjuvant settings, with an overarching goal to develop TUKYSA as a backbone tyrosine kinase inhibitor in HER2 positive breast cancer.
Great. Megan, Johanna, thank you very much for this discussion of Pfizer's breast cancer portfolio. It's clear that there are very active and exciting pipeline in breast cancer that is building on the legacy established with IBRANCE.
As Megan and Johanna have highlighted throughout today's discussion, there are multiple ways in which Pfizer is working to address unmet patient need and drive future growth. Some of the highlights that we have discussed today include the recent label expansion for IBRANCE in combination with inavolisib and fulvestrant. And the PATINA data that may lead to another label expansion opportunity in the maintenance setting.
An upcoming Phase III readout for TUKYSA as a maintenance option for HER2 positive breast cancer, a development strategy for a Atirmociclib to potentially be a new cell cycle inhibitor backbone in frontline. And early breast cancer treatment, where the CDK4/6 market alone stood at $12.7 billion in 2024.
A pipeline of molecules with novel mechanism of action, including KAT6, CDK2, and Vepdeg, that have the potential to address mechanisms of resistance as well as potentially provide improved clinical outcomes and additional early stage programs across modalities that we look forward to sharing in the future.
Before we move to Q&A, I'd like to draw your attention to our development path overlaid against U.S. epi data, which should give you a sense of the addressable market for each breast cancer subtype and line of therapy that Pfizer's development programs are seeking to address.
As you can see, there are significant new opportunities, and we believe the collection of assets we've discussed today have the potential to situate Pfizer as a continued leader in the breast cancer space. We're looking forward to sharing updated clinical data, and when relevant, our plans for commercialization.
We will now begin the Q&A session with Megan and Johanna. As a reminder, our Pfizer Pflash series is designed as an educational deep dive into our pipeline programs. I'll therefore kindly ask participants to keep questions focused on breast cancer and the programs discussed today, and to avoid those that would require us to provide forward-looking financial projections. While we're happy to clarify any information shared during the presentation, we will not be offering estimates beyond what has already been communicated. Thanks for your understanding.
With that, we're ready to take the first question. Operator, if you could please assemble the queue.
[Operator Instructions]
We'll take our first question from Chris Schott with JPMorgan.
2. Question Answer
I just had two on the CDK4 opportunity, I guess maybe on the first line study. Can you just help us in terms of what you would view as clinically meaningful data in the setting, kind of what's the bar you think you need to show versus the traditional CDK4/6s in order to get broad adoption here?
And then my second question was on the adjuvant setting and sorry if I missed this, but I know you highlighted. The neoadjuvant study you're running, are you also going to look at adjuvant for the product as well, and what would a program look like in that setting?
Thank you so much, Chris. This is Johanna. I'll start and then have Megan chime in. We're very excited about looking at Atirmo in the first line setting because we see this as a potentially new cell cycle inhibitor backbone therapy for patients with first line disease. We know that in for typical CDK4/6 inhibitors, issues include these toxicities that you can see, including neutropenia and diarrhea.
And so we think clinically meaningful decrease in these toxicities to allow patients to maintain on therapy longer and then potentially have continued impact on that cell cycle pathway, could improve outcomes, for these patients, both from a toxicity and hopefully prolongation of progression free survival.
So this is what we're aiming for, in first line. And in the adjuvant setting, yes, you heard us mention, we do want to try to bring this forward as well into the adjuvant setting. So we're currently looking at plans for an adjuvant study and they're in discussion right now.
Yes. And just to build on that, we're, like we mentioned earlier, we're really encouraged by the data we saw in the Phase I/II study with the 61% response rate and 94% clinical benefit rate which you saw the waterfall plot. Almost every tumor was shrinking and we continue to see nice durability. We're able to deliver Atirmo continuously given its tolerability profile and specificity for CDK4. And so we're very encouraged that Phase I/II data set will translate within the pivotal study.
Operator will take the next question, please.
We'll move next to Mohit Bansal with Wells Fargo.
Just, one question regarding the timelines here, and then your confidence level in the CDK4? So can you help us understand, I mean, you should share some these two data, but what gives you confidence that you would be able to achieve success in the Phase III trial based on the small subset of 34 patients here, or is it the biology, is it more expression or more suppression of CDK4 here?
And then the other one is these breast cancer trials take a long time. So how are you thinking about timelines in this context as well as potentially expediting the pathway here, maybe by some kind of enrichment?
Thank you. Maybe I can start with that as we talk about timelines. It's hard for us to comment exactly on timelines just because we continue to see how the trial enrolls. I can comment that the trial is actually accruing at a very good pace. So we're hoping to continue on that pace and get results from this study.
In terms of confidence level, I think we're fairly encouraged even though it's early data and it's a small subset of, it's a small, number of patients that were tested, but I think the responses that we've seen in the Phase I study as well as the toxicity differential make us very encouraged.
We know that CDK4 is a major node in the cell cycle pathway, and we hope and think that it's the most responsible node that we can attack to help improve the outcomes for these patients just following the science there. Megan, do you have?
Yes. No, I completely agree, Johanna. I think we were able to generate a scientific hypothesis around specific targeting of CDK4. We generated a very exciting preclinical package that got us excited to bring this to the clinic. And then in the Phase I/II study, it was all consistent where we -- the scientific hypothesis played out with really strong clinical benefit across this patient population. And so I think we're confident in the frontline setting, and we're committed to following the Phase III through.
Operator, we will take the next question.
We'll go next to Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.
[indiscernible] on for Evan. I want to say I appreciate the very comprehensive view of the portfolio today. But the Team didn't talk much about Disitamab Vedotin. Could you provide a bit of an overview for what the plans are for this asset? Looks like you had noted some opportunities really in the second line plus setting, so, just appreciate any color here.
Yes, thanks so much. So with DV being a HER2, targeting Vedotin, we are looking at this in the -- in HER2 refractory setting, and we would really like to see, what kind of activity we get for those patients. As we see this data, this will help us understand a bit more where we can think about placing DV in the future. We know that HER2 is a great drug and it's provided a great option for patients with HER2 positive disease, but we also know that there's a lot more opportunity for those patients in terms of further targeting that pathway and bringing more therapies to them.
Yes. And just, this is Megan from a scientific perspective, I think it'll be really interesting to understand, what we learned about sequencing different antibody drug conjugates in this space because there is really remaining unmet medical need post in HER2.
Operator, we will go to the next question please.
We'll go next to Vamil Divan with Guggenheim Securities.
So maybe two. Just on the KAT6 side, so one, appreciate the efficacy you talked about. We do get a lot of questions on the side effect profile there, especially if dysgeusia. Can you maybe just talk about that and your views on how manageable that is that you move that product forward and then thought it was interesting you having Vepdeg. You mentioned a combo cohort to that Phase I trial with the KAT6. So is that a Vepdeg fulvestrant combo, or if you can just comment on kind of what you've seen, to add that into the KAT6?
Sure. I can take that one to start. So, we're, we continue to be really encouraged about our KAT6 program. This is a potentially, first in class molecule where we've seen, really nice, benefit in activity and heavily pre-treated patients across different, mutational subsets.
And with regard to the safety profile, I think the two most common adverse events that we're seeing include dysgeusia and neutropenia, but these are both manageable. With regard to the dysgeusia, this is a really exclusively low grade dysgeusia we're seeing. And we're watching carefully for any dose discontinuations and thus far within the Phase I, we've not seen anybody discontinue treatment due to dysgeusia. It's manageable with dose modifications and dose delays.
With regard to the neutropenia, we've also not seen any negative sequelae related to kind of neutropenia associated infections in these patients.
And so, I think we continue to be encouraged by the data. With regard to the Vepdeg plus KAT6 combination cohort that we just added to the KAT6 Phase I, this is, that we're not including Vepdeg - fulvestrant, this is Vepdeg plus KAT6 in this space, and we have, we've just started enrolling this cohort, so we don't have any data to report out as of yet.
Operator, we will take the next question please.
We'll go next to Geoff Meacham with Citibank.
This is Nishant on for Jeff. The presentation really helpful. One on combinations. You have really exciting kind of data in CDK4 and other combination studies. And you also have exciting ADC platform. Just wanted to get your thoughts on any opportunities there to combine with any other ADCs? I know you have DV, but any opportunities there to combine?
And then second, do you see a potential for KAT6, to combine with any other agents in your pipeline like, atirmociclib or others?
Sure, I can start and then Johanna, feel free to build upon this. I mean, we're definitely, focused on our, breast as a therapeutic area and we have a really deep pipeline here and this does present us with opportunities for multiple different, internal combinations as well as combinations, with other agents, that are in the clinic.
With CDK4, we really see up with the Atirmo, we see this as the potential to be a future backbone in the frontline HR positive, breast cancer space and beyond. And so we're looking to really combine across the spectrum with different breast cancer subsets and mutational subsets within this space, not only with internal combinations, but also with you know PI3 kinase inhibitors and other molecules and this is ongoing.
We also, as mentioned, you have a broad ADC platform and beyond DV, we do have other ADCs in the pipeline that have the potential opportunity in the breast cancer space. One example of that is PDL1V or PDL1 Vedotin ADC, which is currently being evaluated in a Phase I cohort in PDL1 positive triple negative breast cancer.
So that's another opportunity. We don't have any ongoing combinations with our CDK4 inhibitor and ADCs, but that's something we're looking at as we continue to broaden the life cycle for Atirmo. And then in terms of KAT6 combinations, we've currently prioritized the combination with fulvestrant in the Phase 3 that's about to start later this year. And then we have the ongoing KAT6 plus Vepdeg combination. We are continuing to look at opportunities for KAT6 and other spaces, including other combinations. So more to come on that.
Johanna, anything to add?
Yes. I think you said it perfectly, Megan, and I think what we're very excited about at Pfizer is, and I'm really glad that you asked this question. Is the possibilities to do these combinations? Like, for instance, with CDK4, prior CDK4/6 inhibitors for their hematologic toxicity profile have limited us in what we can do in terms of combinations. And so what we think this could open up the door with a more specific CDK4, targeting to be able to actually combine with ADCs and other, and other molecules that might have a little bit more of an overlapping toxicity profile.
And I think also as Megan alluded to, and it was alluded to in the presentation, there is a pre-clinical pipeline that's coming because we are continuing to follow the science and really continue to follow our focus on the HR positive breast cancer space. So stay tuned.
Operator next question please.
We'll go next to Kerry Holford with Berenberg.
Two, please. Firstly on the KAT6, would just be interested to hear how you're thinking about the development of this novel drug in the second line setting, given the potential change to first line treatment with your thirds and with your PROTAC emerging. So given that profile change to second line patients, how do you allow for that when you're thinking about KAT6 in the second line.
And then my second question specifically on Vepdeg, the VERITAC-2 study we noted that the U.S. cohorts saw a hazard ratio that crossed 1. So the question is how confident are you that you've got sufficient data to get the approval in the U.S., we have seen competitors in other cancer types see a delay due to a smaller U.S. cohort with a hazard ratio above 1. So just interested to hear your thoughts on that. Is it a risk or not in your view?
Maybe I can start on KAT6 and then I'll turn it over to Johanna on Vepdeg. So, yes, I think we're, as we continue to follow the science and, place our portfolio of breast cancer molecules and spaces. Where it makes the most sense scientifically, we really see an opportunity in the second line and beyond setting for KAT6 where, we've generated data both pre-clinically and clinically that, this inhibition of KAT6 has the potential to overcome resistance to endocrine therapy, and CDK4/6 therapy.
For example, mutations in ESR1 gene can drive resistance to endocrine therapy. As I mentioned earlier, in the frontline setting, 5% of patients have ESR1, but it jumps to 40% in the second line and beyond. So, again, following the science and this hypothesis, I think we're, we see a really, a rational place for KAT6 in the second line and beyond setting.
And, as mentioned, we're also, we're really encouraged to look at the opportunity with Vepdeg, where, Vepdeg has a particular benefit in the ESR1 mutant population. One scientific question is whether this could unlock opportunity in combination with KAT6 beyond ESR1 mutant disease. And so we're continuing to follow that -- enroll that cohort and follow that out.
And then I'll turn it over to you for Johanna.
Yes. And so, I also wanted to say, Megan, I love what you said. I mean, we are super excited about KAT6, not only in combination with Vepdeg but just because it can treat patients with endocrine resistance, to be able to use it in a much broader population in the second line. And we really excited to see the potential there.
In terms of the VERITAC-2 study, certainly as we look at subset analysis and small cohorts, I just wanted to call out in the U.S. this definitely was a smaller cohort of patients, so the tightening of the confidence intervals, may be a little bit more difficult, in terms of the smaller numbers, but we're still very confident in the data that was shown for that U.S. patient population in terms of trending towards improvement and progression free survival.
Thank you. Operator, we'll take the last question in the queue, please.
Our last question comes from Terence Flynn with Morgan Stanley.
This is Hailey on for Terrence. And I appreciate the detail on the design of the pivotal Atirmo frontline trial. Can you provide any more information on powering for that trial?
I think right now, we haven't disclosed a lot of the study details in terms of the powering and the statistical plan. We -- most definitely, as we start to present more in the future and have some data to present in the future, we can give you more details about that at that time.
That's right.
Okay. I think that, operator, if there's no more questions, I'll just move to the close. I want to thank everybody for joining us today for this fifth Pfizer Pflash. Our intention is to continue to do these, particularly on the oncology pipeline as we move through the TAs. And I know summer is about to start. I want to wish everyone a wonderful summer. We're not yet sure if we'll host one in the coming months or wait until after earnings. And if we don't, we'll catch you at earnings and have -- enjoy all the weather that's hopefully turning at least for those of us in New York. Have a great day. Everybody can disconnect.
This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.
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Pfizer — Special Call - Pfizer Inc.
Pfizer — Special Call - Pfizer Inc.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: Pfizer stellt seine Brustkrebs-Strategie als Wachstumstreiber dar: Ausbau bewährter Marken (Ibrance, Tukysa) plus mehrere neuartige Wirkmechanismen (Atirmociclib, KAT6, CDK2, Vepdeg, DV).
- These: Nächste-generation‑CDK4 (Atirmociclib) und KAT6 sollen Therapieresistenz adressieren und als neue Behandlungs‑Backbones in frühen wie später Linien positioniert werden.
🔍 Strategische Highlights
- Ibrance‑Life‑Cycle: Weitere Label‑Erweiterungen (z.B. Kombination mit Inavolisib; PATINA‑Daten) sollen Bestandsprodukt länger relevant halten.
- Atirmociclib: Sehr selektiv für CDK4 (≈33‑fach vs CDK6), Phase I/II: ORR 61% und CBR 94%; laufende pivotal FourLight‑3 (PFS primär) für Erstlinie.
- KAT6 & Vepdeg: KAT6 zeigt in 2nd‑line ORR 37.2%, mPFS 10.7 Monate; Vepdeg (PROTAC) verbesserte PFS in ESR1‑mutierten Patienten (5 vs 2 Monate) — NDA eingereicht.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- KAT6‑Phase‑III: Geplanter Start der zulassungsrelevanten Studie (Kombination mit Fulvestrant) in H2 2025.
- Tukysa‑Programm: HER2CLIMB‑05 (Tukysa in Maintenance) erwartet ein weiteres Phase‑III‑Readout „später in diesem Jahr“; Ziel: Vormarsch in frühere Linien.
- Kombinationspläne: Cohort für KAT6 + Vepdeg wurde in Phase‑I ergänzt; weitere interne Kombinationsoptionen (ADC, CDK2, PI3K) werden evaluiert.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Atirmo‑Adoption: Analysten fragten nach dem klinisch‑wichtigen Differenzierungsbarometer gegenüber existierenden CDK4/6‑Inhibitoren; Management nennt bessere Toxizität (weniger Neutropenie/Diarrhö) und kontinuierliche Dosierung als entscheidend.
- Powering & Timelines: Details zu statistischer Planung des Atirmo‑Phase‑III wurden nicht offengelegt; Einschreibung läuft gut, genaue Readout‑Termine noch offen.
- Vepdeg‑Risiko: Fragen zur U.S.‑Untergruppe (HR>1 in kleinem Kollektiv) — Management sieht das als Folge kleiner Stichprobe, bleibt aber zuversichtlich für Zulassungsargument in ESR1‑Mutanten.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Relevanz: Das Webinar liefert substanzielle klinische Signale (Atirmociclib, KAT6, Vepdeg) und konkrete Entwicklungspläne; entscheidend für Investoren sind nun erfolgreiche Phase‑III‑Readouts und ob die bessere Verträglichkeit in der Praxis Adoption und Marktanteilsgewinne gegenüber etablierten CDK4/6‑Inhibitoren generiert.
Pfizer — Goldman Sachs 46th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Great. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our 46th Annual Global Healthcare Conference. My name is Asad Haider, I'm the U.S. pharma analyst here at Goldman Sachs and we are very privileged to have Albert Bourla with us to kick off this conference. Albert is the CEO of Pfizer. Albert, thank you for being with us.
Great pleasure.
Albert, we have about 35 minutes. So I want to start with a big picture question for you on the external environment, which I think is something that everyone is trying to figure out. You're the perfect curtain raiser for this conference given your role as the Chair of the Pharma lobbying group, you have a very unique perspective and you have front row seats on what's going on in Washington, D.C. with respect to policy and all these overhangs on the sector. So level set for us to kick the conversation off on where things stand in your most recent conversations with the administration, particularly as it relates to this drug pricing MFN executive order.
What should we be expecting to hear this week? I believe this week marks the 30-day mark from the time that the executive order was first put out. And what are the range of outcomes that the industry is expecting, both near term as well as how this plays out over the longer term?
Yes. Apparently, there is a lot of anxiety with investors, which is very obvious in the multiples of all the pharma that have been depressed to levels that I think they don't make sense, but they are there because uncertainty always punishes. Okay. So the Trump brings radical change, and there are a lot of risks with that and opportunity because the status quo is changing. On the risks, you mentioned one of the most important, the MFN and the executive order that came on that. But there is also, don't forget the tariffs, but it is something that is hanging in there. I can speak about both. On the opportunities, there are significant opportunities with the small molecules, large molecules exclusivity that I think the administration is very sympathetic to it, including Secretary Kennedy, including the President Trump, et cetera.
PBM reform, the same. The 340B for the first time has been recognized as a major issue that needs to be resolved and the regulations and expedition of the regulatory process. So those are the opportunities. And we are working to make sure that we mitigate the risks and we don't let them happen, and we work also equally intensively to make sure that the opportunities materialize. Now on the MFN, I don't know what we will hear in 30 days. I don't believe we can hear much because the administration already started a series of meetings with companies. Pfizer went there and other companies went as well. The meetings were cordial, but they were not digging into the substance yet. It is just trying to understand high-level ideas and no commitments. So what could be the outcomes of something like that? It could be from nothing to very big.
There are 2 aspects. One, it is what will -- with this MFN. One, it is what will happen to the U.S. prices if they can come downwards towards, let's say, European or international prices. The other is what happens to international price, and they can come upwards more close to the interfering -- we are working on both. And there are different parts of the administration that are handling one versus the other. The Secretary of Health, the Dr. Oz, those are the people that are handling what happens with the MFN in the U.S. Secretary Lutnick, the U.S. Trade Representative, even Secretary Bessent are dealing with negotiations with the other countries that include right now how they can take their prices up. And the U.K. was the first example of a deal that happened.
So I guess on that point, maybe just double-click on that. I guess the industry has been adamant about European countries raising prices to pay for their share of innovation. But just maybe talk us through the mechanism of how that happens. I understand that happened in the U.K., but how does that happen across the rest of the continent? And then one question we're also getting from investors is, can European budgets actually support higher drug prices?
Look, first of all, yes, they can, but they have very big budgets, and we represent in U.K., 0.3% of their GDP per capita. That's how much they spend on medicine. So yes, they can increase prices. Are they willing to do it? Of course, not. They don't. They are having, let's say, kind of free riding all these years, and they want to continue that. And we had a situation that the U.S. government never stood up to them about drug pricing, never until now. So every time that there were trade negotiations, it was all about steel, it was all about cars, it was all about AI, never about medicines. This time it's different. And I don't know how much passion they will continue demonstrating. But in my discussions with them, they have quite a bit. So they don't like it, and they think that they should -- the average should go up.
Now I don't think that the discussion should be that product X in the U.K. has this price or in Germany has this price and in the U.S. has this price because you will be lost into that situation of how many products and where is high, where it is low, which is all over the place. But as a concept that the country should spend a percentage of their GDP per capita as, for example, they have requested for defense in NATO. So you need to spend 5% of your GDP into, let's say, defense, a mechanism that everyone should have a percentage that they spend on innovative medicines. And then, of course, every country can decide how they want to allocate that. And if they will do it by removing the clawbacks, which is very common in Europe, if they will do it by removing some mandatory rebates or if they will do it by increasing prices, but that should be the demand of the U.S. government towards them. And this is what we have explained.
Just to give you a number to understand the realities, U.S. is spending 0.8% approximately of GDP per capita on innovative medicines or let's say, 10 years within their launch. Germany, 0.4%, so it's a big difference, and they need to step it up. By the way, Italy and Spain, 0.5%.
I guess in a world of MFN, would Pfizer potentially rethink launch strategies in Europe? Would you consider walking away from countries if there's a significant disparity between U.S. and European prices?
I think, yes. I don't think we will walk out from -- we will remove our products from the market there. We will just remove them from reimbursement. We will leave them in open market, and the products will be available at a price that if they don't want to reimburse, let them not do it, which is how in Europe things will work. It's not something that we would like, and it is not something that we want to go there at all. We prefer to find a solution that can motivate Europeans to do a little bit more, can motivate here pharmaceutical companies to reduce their prices, but also in a way that it's sustainable for the industry. And don't forget something, which is very important with lower prices. In Europe, let's say, they pay a price by having low prices, 43% of medicines that they are approved by EMA are on average available are reimbursed. And in Europe, reimbursement is available, right, so approximately 43%.
So it's -- but those medicines that they are in the list, they are available to all. There are not 3-step edits and pre-authorized and you need to pay out of your pocket the entire amount, the first $2,000 or $5,000. These things, they don't exist. So the volumes are tremendous. It's -- right now, the abandonment in the U.S. for scripts that they are out of pocket, it's, let's say, north of $150, it's 50%. It's a very, very huge amount of abandonment that you have. So if you reduce prices, but you open access, the impact, and we have calculated multiple times, is not that dramatic.
And then maybe just to wrap up on the drug pricing and just double-clicking on the U.S. I think there's a lot of confusion about what the mechanisms and the avenues for implementing these price changes potentially could be.
In the U.S.
In the U.S. So is it -- is it, people think it could get wrapped up in IRA, maybe it's CMMI demo project? Could it be part of the budget reconciliation process? Like -- so just maybe talk through high level, what are the avenues with which we could actually see something get done?
First of all, there are avenues that involve legislation and avenues, which means Congress and avenues that do not. I believe with all my discussions with Congress leadership and Congress members, there is no appetite for any legislation around that at all. And so we need to focus at the time, the highest possibilities, what can happen with regulations, right? And the CMS has the ability to do what we call demonstration programs so that they can demonstrate something to the Congress that can legislate.
Are those mandatory or voluntary?
I'll tell you, first of all, cannot affect commercial because it's completely out and cannot affect Part B because there is a noninterference clause that has -- is there. It was lifted only for the IRA products and for nothing else. So it's Part B that legally someone can do something like that. But a demonstration program cannot be all Part B products, all countries, all states because it's a demonstration program. It used to be a small thing, so they can demonstrate. Now we know that there is a very different appreciation of what is the authorities that this government has, and they tend to go to the extremes, so they can use -- it's -- I want to do a demonstration and [indiscernible] do everything.
Yes.
Those can happen. But in my discussions with them, I don't think that they are looking to -- to destroy the industry, let me put it that way, right? They are looking to find a solution.
Okay. And then maybe just to wrap up, Albert, on the external environment, just a couple of words on tariffs. I guess, you're one of the few global pharma companies that hasn't quantified or announced any new U.S. manufacturing, right? You said you're well positioned and you don't need to do this. So I guess the question is, I mean, do you think the administration wants to see new CapEx investments? And do you think it diminishes your negotiating leverage in any way, shape or form?
I think, yes, they would like to see new investments. They would like to see jobs creating in the U.S. As I said multiple times, Pfizer has invested in the past in U.S. manufacturing. So we have 13 sites right now. 2 are very big distribution, but 11 are manufacturing sites in the U.S. that we could transfer products. It's not without any investment and cost, if you want to transfer. But it's not -- it's very different the cost to transfer manufacturing from Ireland to a U.S. existing facility than to build a whole new facility that will take 5 years, and it is a huge investment. We also invested a lot in these facilities, and we'll continue doing it. But I don't think it makes sense to make announcements of future investments in an environment that it is very fluid. The reality is that we are business people and the business people will look to the environment. Can I do more investments if there is tariffs and MFN, probably not.
Can I do more investments if those things are not there? Probably yes. We want it anyway to do it because of resilience of the supply networks. We saw in COVID that you are suffering with this global network of supply chain. And many companies, and I think what you are seeing here, it is the result of they want to have resilience in the U.S., so U.S. for U.S.; resilience in China, China for China; resilience in Europe, Europe for Europe. And this is what we are all doing. So we will do that. But what can get in the way, it is if we have to reduce dramatically our investments because of tariffs or MFN.
All right. Let's move to Pfizer's specific questions on business trends, Albert. So I guess just starting with your '25 guidance. On the first quarter call, you talked about '25 guidance being derisked for the balance of the year from a financial delivery perspective, just given the very strong jumping off point that we made in the first quarter. So I guess what would challenge those core assumptions from here?
I think there are in P&Ls, there are elements like revenues and cost lines. We feel extremely good about our cost lines. We are doing very, very well in controlling them, and we will continue that. So the margins will expand. We are also feeling very good on the revenues right now. We reported the first one, which in our projections was higher, way higher than what we were expecting for Q1. I know that there was a a misalignment with the Street, but in our numbers was really very solid. And you will see the second quarter. But in the marketplace, I'm sure you are following the scripts, et cetera, we are gaining share. We are maintaining share when you are attacked. We are very well on the revenue.
Clearly, there is a wild card, which is COVID because COVID, it is all backloaded. And backloaded means that the biggest part of the revenues are coming on the third and fourth quarter. And if for any reasons that science don't predict and we can't explain, there is no COVID suddenly in the second part of -- in the fall, winter, that will reduce our sales, and that's an exposure. Doesn't seem that it is the case in the last few years and doesn't seem that the case in Asia, but already the wave has started with a very strong -- actually, a very strong COVID wave with very severe symptoms. So I keep that as one of the risk factors, but that's the only one that I see right now.
I just want to press you a little bit of that given the importance of how the COVID franchise delivers, as you said, in the back half with respect to numbers. I guess your guidance assumes steady-state COVID relative to 2024, but there have also been some recent CDC recommendations with some pretty ambiguous language around who should get vaccinated, pregnant women, et cetera, right? So how confident -- what gives you confidence that the demand trends are going to hold up even if there is a...
Yes. There are 2 issues. One, it is what about the science of this recommendation. The other is what will be the impact on the demand. On the science, we have said our opinion. We completely disagree. This is based on nothing, and it's just ideological and shouldn't be there, but it is. On the impact, very, very small, almost nothing. Basically, the -- in the ages that they don't recommend, the vaccination rates were very, very small, not only in terms of how much of the COVID was going there, but also what percentage of this population is getting a vaccine, which tells you that the percentage of this population that gets these vaccines are people that really need it. The people that the doctors are worrying about it. They have an underlying condition, but it is serious and they really worry and they give it. It's not -- so we don't expect on that. The uncertainty on COVID is not because of these things. The uncertainties are we going to have a wave or not, as we always have. And science says we are going to have. Asia, started, but that's the only uncertainty.
I think on CNN last week in an interview, you made some comments about -- when you were getting asked about vaccines about making some tactical moves in the near term. I was intrigued with that statement.
What did I say in statement?
I think you said you're making some tactical moves around vaccines in your interview.
Can't remember.
Maybe I misunderstood it. All right. Let's talk about cost cuts. Obviously, you've made some great progress on productivity improvement programs over the course of the year and operational efficiency perspective. So that's been a theme for a few quarters now. So maybe talk us through what innings of that we're in right now? And how much more opportunity is there to sort of squeeze more costs out of the enterprise?
We announced that we are going to have in the next 2 years, incremental to what we said, $1.7 billion on OpEx, and that's $1.2 billion in SMA that is going to the bottom line basically and $500 million in R&D that will be reinvested. So it's improving the productivity of R&D. And we also announced that we are going to see an improvement in margins, gross margins because there is $1.5 billion goal in manufacturing. And we feel very good that those targets will be achieved as we have achieved those targets until now. So we are very good in doing that. And the thing that makes me even more proud on that is we do it without affecting the performance of the top line because we are very strategic how we do it. It's not that it is democracy. Everybody, $1 billion means 10% cut or 6%, 7%, you cut your cost 6%, 7%. It's 2 things that are driving.
One, it is deployment of technology that it is automation, digitization and AI, very big part of it, both in cost of goods and in OpEx. And the second is simplification that these are big corporations. They have built, let's say, significant infrastructures that they are quite complicated. There's duplication that really cost a lot of money. And we go very, very seriously after that. So that's why we don't affect. We are not reducing, for example, field forces, right? We are not reducing the amount that we spend in promotions. Actually, we have a big shift in the amount that we spend from promotions from TV to social media, where it is the return, the ROI of social media compared to TV, it is multiple, ahead, right? So we are doing a lot of these things that allows us to reduce the cost, and we will continue doing that.
Yes, remarkable progress on that front, certainly. Maybe we'll move to capital allocation and just sort of use of cash, and then I'm going to take a pause and see if there are any questions before we go through some of the rest of my questions. Just on M&A and BD, just maybe your updated view, Albert, in the context of the deal that you recently did with 3SBio to license that PD-1/VEGF bispecific. Obviously, there's been a tremendous amount of excitement about this class as potentially disrupting the standard of care. There's been a flurry of recent news flow. You're going to be paying all in about $6 billion for this asset. So talk us through how you landed on this asset specifically and that price tag.
We paid $1.2 billion. I hope we will pay $6 billion because we will pay $6 billion if the whole thing is very successful and sells a lot. Because there are milestones over there, right? But the $1.2 billion, it is what right now, we put at risk, plus all the development costs. I think, first of all, this is a fabulous asset. It is in a class that it is highly promising. It is the only class that has demonstrated benefits against PD-1s in -- at the decade that these PD-1s are there and dominating the landscape. There's nothing else like that. And the data that this company had were very good. But of course, there were data in China. So you need to know the company and you need to make -- to be very careful in China, how you do the due diligence. We sent teams in China that they spend weeks, that they went to the sites, they viewed the scans one after the other. They interviewed the physicians that they run the study. So we didn't do due diligence in a data room. We sent people on site. And we feel very comfortable.
I met the CEO, they are credible guys. So we feel very good about this asset. Now why this asset is strategic for us is not only because of -- on itself can represent as a stand-alone, a very big opportunity because that's better than PD-1s, if that continues to be the case and will be proven. But also because we have the largest ADC portfolio. And our ADC portfolio is based on a payload that's called vedotin. And vedotin has been proven that because it creates immunogenic cell death, it has synergistic effects with PD-1s. So all these PADCEV results are together with KEYTRUDA, right? So with any PD-1s, you put together this ADC with a PD-1 and you have much better results than if they are stand-alone. So for us to have the new, let's say, standard of immunotherapy as part of our portfolio is very strategically important given that we have all the ADCs.
How does it affect then the Summit partnership that announcement that you had earlier this year?
The Summit partnership was research collaboration. So it was not -- we didn't have any financials on their molecule, and they didn't have any financials on our molecule. It is exactly because the ADCs and the PD-1s, PD-L1s, they have synergistic effects, they wanted and we wanted to do a study between their molecule and one of our ADCs. And so they are giving us the product, we are running the study. And that is there. It's not the discussion right now. But it was not that we had an economic interest on there.
I was a little surprised actually to see an oncology deal before -- we saw something in cardiometabolic or even I&I, just given the vocabulary of the company recently has been sort of almost deemphasizing BD in oncology and vaccines versus I&I and cardio. So maybe just talk through sort of any updated thinking there.
Yes. The truth is that for oncology for us, the bar is much higher because we have plenty of assets. So we are operating in full capacity right now with R&D organizations. So it's not that we are looking to get it. Clearly, in other areas, we have higher interest and cardiometabolic, obesity, let's say, the internal medicine is clearly an area that we have very high interest. And we are looking. Obesity, for example, we do believe that obesity is a very big area and a high unmet medical need. We do think there is a lot of risk with pricing. So we are looking at it very quickly. And all calculations and valuations that we may do or not for deals include the stress test of pricing should go down and what happens in that case, right? MFN or non-MFN prices, I think, because of competition.
There is also a lot of players that are right now emerging, particularly in China. There's tremendous science on obesity, et cetera. So we are looking all of that. But one thing it is very clear that we don't want to overpay. And sometimes in valuations, it's already embedded a premium that is really very, very high. So we will only do it if we think that we can find a promising asset at valuations that a disciplined approach could make sense. And the reason why to go and do it is because we have such a big expertise and legacy in metabolic diseases in-house that really -- and it's primary care. So plays both commercial and research on the strengths of this company. This company was built on this type of assets, right? So yes, we will go for it. But we are not going to overpay. And right now, there are a lot of crazy demands.
Is in terms of your M&A firepower, you put bands of $10 billion to $15 billion as the ballpark. Is that still the consideration in the context of...
Yes. It is still the consideration in the context. And already, we did $1 billion of that. And I don't think we would like -- I mean, we never say never on anything. But probably I would prefer not to do one of $15 billion, but to do a few of smaller deals, but it needs to be strategic and at good value for the shareholders.
And then I guess I have to ask you on the dividend. There still seems to be some investor debate. We've talked -- you and I have talked about this. Recognizing that this is a core part of your stated capital allocation strategy, is there -- what, if any, are the circumstances in which you may reconsider that view?
Only if there is something a catastrophe. There is no way that right now, we are very clear. We are going to maintain our dividend, and we are going to maintain a growing dividend. And is it going to be an MFN that kills the industry? It's a very different story. But under normal circumstances, which it includes known and unknown competition costs, investments in other areas, et cetera. Our deleveraging is very high priority. Our dividend is very high priority. And we -- because we were able to delever very nicely because you saw our cash flows last year were very, very good. So we went way below our stated target for the end of the year. We went already last year, right? So it went really, really well. So that's why we announced suddenly before this year, we can have $10 billion to $15 billion also on BD while maintaining our dividend, while maintaining our R&D and while continuing delevering. So I think we are good on that front.
Take a pause there and see if there are any questions from the audience. Okay. Maybe, Albert, we can get into some of -- double-click on some product pipeline-specific areas. Just -- I guess just maybe to finish up on obesity, just the status of the oral GIPR like -- and just how you're thinking about this competitive positioning, timing of the readout?
I think within probably beginning of next year, right, readouts. It is right now in Phase II, PD-L1 -- excuse me, of GLP-1 on the backdrop of GLP-1 and.
Both exciting.
Yes.
And then I guess on ELREXFIO, you've repeatedly talked about that being one of the more underappreciated assets in your portfolio and you're aiming to move up the treatment paradigm. So can you just maybe walk us through the strategy and the vision in multiple myeloma?
Yes. ELREXFIO is right now approved and is doing quite well in a very small indication, the triple -- basically patients that they fail multiple lines of therapy, 4, 5, 6 lines of therapy, right? So now there is a new indication that the study should read out is event-driven, but should read out by the end of the year. That is going to failing of 2 lines of therapy. That is improving dramatically the commercial opportunity because not only triples the amount of patients that are available with this. So if it is one, now will be 3, but also the duration of treatments in this population are much, much longer compared to the duration of treatments for people that they fail 5 or 6 treatments because they are unfortunately, they don't live that long.
And that's the second. We have 4 that take us all the way to the first line, et cetera. So of course, you need to have the studies be successful. But the probability of success, it is on the reasonably high levels given what we have seen so far. And the market potential, it is exponentially bigger. So that's what I don't think the Street has modeled appropriately. And we went back again and again, and I asked my people, are you sure and let's see this assumption and that assumption and that assumption. And there is a very big difference in the Street's assessment and what really I think and my team thinks that the product can do.
Okay. VYNDAQEL, just any updated thoughts in the context of the emerging competitive environment?
I don't think will be an issue and the threat for us. It is -- there are already patients. I don't think any patient will switch to -- from VYNDAQEL to something else. But then there is the new patients that are coming that they will have to compete. Now they will have to compete against a physician experience of years because the same physicians will prescribe to the new patients, and they have some familiarity with VYNDAQEL. They have to compete against our commercial muscle, which is very strong in the area. So I think it's always not the same when it's with competition or without, but this is not something that worries us, particularly in the years that we have until the patent expiries.
Okay. And then I guess on bladder cancer, this is an area that's getting a little bit more interest. You're approaching the space with your subcu PD-1. So -- and you have this upcoming readout with for PADCEV in muscle invasive. So can you just maybe frame your perspectives and the outlook.
I will. And I'll start with PADCEV everybody understands the potential. It's more or less the story with ELREXFIO. The new indication of PADCEV. It is really increasing significantly the population and the duration of treatment. So that's one. But I want to speak about the subcutaneous that people have -- they think -- the way that they see it, okay, it is a subcutaneous KEYTRUDA alternative, so probably will not do that well. This is not the point, and this is not why we developed it. We developed it particularly for use by urologists. Bladder cancer, when it is non-muscle invasive bladder cancer is not treated by oncologists. Not at large, almost dominantly, it's treated by urologists. In the current standard of care, it is through -- they're basically putting into the bladder BCG, right, which is something that is killing the tumor.
There is significant benefits if you include a PD-1. The problem is that the current PD-1s, they need an infusion center. And the urologists, they don't have infusion centers. So in their mind, when there is a need for PD-1, they need to refer their clients to go to oncologists so that they can use an infusion center to give also the PD-1. We have done repeatedly market research. If you had a subcutaneous that you can give it in your practice as you are giving the intra-bladder infusion, would you use it? Or would you continue? Overwhelmingly, they will use in the practice, which it's easy to understand and believe they have control and they don't need to send their customers somewhere else. So that's the value of the subcutaneous because it has been developed in this specific indication and had spectacular results. So I think that also will be a good surprise.
Okay. Well, that's maybe a great place to wrap up, Albert. We're just at about time. Thank you very much for that perspective. Really appreciate you having you here.
Thank you very much.
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Pfizer — Goldman Sachs 46th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
Pfizer — Goldman Sachs 46th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Albert Bourla betont hohe politische Unsicherheit (MFN-Exekutivverfügung, Zölle) sieht aber zugleich Chancen (PBM‑/340B‑Reform). Pfizer hält Guidance, priorisiert Margin‑Expansion durch $1,7 Mrd. OpEx‑Programm, behält Dividende und bleibt bei disziplinierter M&A‑Fähigkeit; COVID‑Nachfrage bleibt H2‑Wildcard.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Kapitalallokation: Weiterhin $10–15 Mrd. Firepower für M&A; bereits ~ $1 Mrd. ausgegeben; Präferenz für mehrere kleinere, strategische Transaktionen statt ein großer Megadeal.
- Kostendisziplin: Zusätzliche $1,7 Mrd. Einsparungen (≈$1,2 Mrd. OpEx/SMA zum Ergebnis, $0,5 Mrd. R&D‑Reinvest), plus $1,5 Mrd. Ziel in Fertigungsproduktivität; Fokus auf Automatisierung, Digitalisierung und AI.
- Portfoliofokus: Akquise von 3SBio (PD‑1/VEGF bispezifisch) als strategische Ergänzung zu ADC‑Plattform; Ausbau von Onkologie‑Indikationen (ELREXFIO, PADCEV, subkutaner PD‑1) und selektives Interesse an Adipositas/Kardiometabolik.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Dealterms: Für das 3SBio‑Asset nannte Bourla $1,2 Mrd. Upfront und bis zu ~$6 Mrd. inkl. Meilensteine (All‑in‑Kaufpreis bei vollem Erfolg).
- Guidance & Risiko: Keine Änderung an Jahresguidance; Management nennt MFN‑Regelung und ein potenziell ausbleibendes COVID‑H2 als die wesentlichen Unsicherheitsfaktoren.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- MFN‑Mechanik: Analysten drängten auf Details zur MFN‑Umsetzung; Bourla sagte, Treffen seien noch hochrangig und unkonkret – Ergebnis reicht von „nichts“ bis bedeutend; Legislative unwahrscheinlich, regulatorische Demos wahrscheinlicher.
- COVID‑Nachfrage: Nachfrage‑Risiko für H2 wurde geprüft; Bourla sieht CDC‑Einschränkungen als wissenschaftlich schwach und erwarteten Nachfrage‑Impact als gering, bleibt aber vorsichtig wegen möglicher Wellen.
- M&A‑/CapEx‑Ambitionen: Fragen zu neuer US‑Fertigung und Werteinbringung wurden zurückhaltend beantwortet — Pfizer hat bestehende US‑Sites, will aber in einem fluiden Umfeld keine größeren Ankündigungen forcieren.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit für Anleger: Event bestätigt defensive, aktionärsfreundliche Ausrichtung: stabile Dividende, klare Kostziele und selektive M&A‑Strategie. Kurzfristig dominieren politische Preisrisiken (MFN) und COVID‑H2‑Unsicherheit; langfristig bietet die Onkologie‑Pipeline und operative Hebung Upside.
Finanzdaten von Pfizer
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Mär '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 63.314 63.314 |
1 %
1 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 15.953 15.953 |
0 %
0 %
25 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 47.361 47.361 |
2 %
2 %
75 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 13.548 13.548 |
4 %
4 %
21 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | 10.520 10.520 |
1 %
1 %
17 %
|
|
| EBITDA | 24.640 24.640 |
11 %
11 %
39 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 4.847 4.847 |
7 %
7 %
8 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 19.793 19.793 |
17 %
17 %
31 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 7.490 7.490 |
5 %
5 %
12 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen USD.
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Firmenprofil
Pfizer Inc. beschäftigt sich mit der Erforschung, Entwicklung und Herstellung von Gesundheitsprodukten und ist auf Medikamente, Impfstoffe und die Gesundheitsfürsorge für Verbraucher spezialisiert. Das Unternehmen ist über die Segmente Pfizer Innovative Health (IH) und Pfizer Essential Health (EH) tätig. Das IH-Segment konzentriert sich auf die Entwicklung und Vermarktung von Medikamenten und Impfstoffen für die Innere Medizin, Onkologie, Entzündung und Immunologie, Rate Disease und Consumer Health. Das EH-Segment befasst sich mit der Entwicklung und Lieferung von Markengenerika, generischen sterilen injizierbaren Produkten, Biosimilars und ausgewählten Markenprodukten einschließlich Antiinfektiva. Das Unternehmen wurde 1849 von Charles Pfizer Sr. und Charles Erhart gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in New York, NY.
aktien.guide Premium
| Hauptsitz | USA |
| CEO | Dr. Bourla |
| Mitarbeiter | 75.000 |
| Gegründet | 1849 |
| Webseite | www.pfizer.com |


