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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 14,04 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 2,38 Mrd. $
Marktkapitalisierung = 14,04 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 2,65 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 13,26 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 2,38 Mrd. $
Enterprise Value = 13,26 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 2,65 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Exelixis, Inc. Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
26 Analysten haben eine Exelixis, Inc. Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
26 Analysten haben eine Exelixis, Inc. Prognose abgegeben:
Beta Exelixis, Inc. Events
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Exelixis, Inc. — Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Great. We'll continue with the next session. I'm Paul Choi, and I cover this mid-cap biotech sector here at the firm. It's our pleasure to have Exelixis join us for this session. To my left is Andrew Peters, who heads up Strategy and IR. Maybe what we'll do is kick it off and let Andrew maybe describe the company's priorities and strategy for the balance of 2026 and going into 2027, and then we'll go into Q&A after that.
Yes. Sounds good. And thank you for the invite. Always a great conference, good meetings this morning and looking forward to the rest of the day. Just as a reminder, I'm going to be making some forward-looking statements today. So please see all relevant disclosures around the risks to our business and 2026 is an important -- big picture, I think the way that we tend to think about the world is through the lens of franchises. And kind of what I mean by that is it's kind of multidimensional.
So the idea, say, take something like cabo and zanza, where we're investing broadly in those molecules with multiple indications within each drug. And then within each of those indications, say, either RCC or CRC or NET kind of going broadly as well. So not only with zanza with multiple trials, say, ongoing with -- in CRC, but say, XB371, our tissue factor targeting ADC, some other areas as well. And then kind of broadly speaking, franchises within ADCs, franchises within small molecules, franchises within multi-specific antibodies. So that sort of thing.
So from a big picture strategic perspective, I think really what we're doing is transitioning from a single franchise company to a multiple franchise company. And what that means is we're going to maximize the value of kind of the cabo franchise, keep our eye on the ball and make sure that we're executing, focusing every day, every minute, every hour on getting cabo to patients while also getting ready for the launch of zanza in third line plus CRC and then executing from a clinical development perspective, the remaining 6 pivotal studies that we have ongoing there, while we're also investing in our earlier-stage pipeline, while we're also looking externally to potentially build out that third and that fourth molecule.
And then just lastly, taking kind of those cash flows that we're generating and investing in kind of the internal bucket that I mentioned before, externally and then focusing on some kind of more shareholder-friendly activities like buybacks. So big picture, the strategic question that I get a lot is that sweet spot, but it really is kind of that transition from a single franchise to a multiple franchise company and all of the individual things that are encompassed within that.
Great. Maybe let's start with your current commercial franchise with cabo and maybe more specifically, the addition of the NET indication in the past few quarters and how that's contributed to growth. Can you maybe just help us understand what percentage of the mix is that now? And sort of how do you envision that, I guess, at steady state as you look forward here?
Yes. So as we talked about in the last quarter, now that we're kind of 1 year post launch, frankly, for competitive reasons, we're no longer kind of breaking out specifically that NET contribution. What we have said is that when we reiterated guidance again on the first quarter call, we expect growth to come from both the RCC segment and from NET. The NET indication is one we're really excited about. It's a high-priority franchise for us, not only kind of the cabo investment that we're making, but also kind of what we're doing with zanza and then some of our earlier-stage studies.
So I think it's that dynamic that we're really focused on. The only other thing I'd add there just on the NET side, as you know, we added to our sales force earlier this year in part to continue to maximize the effectiveness and momentum around the launch in the NET indication, but also to kind of hit the ground running, so to speak, ahead of a potential zanza approval later this year as well kind of in that similar space. And so it's a little bit of a two-pronged effort.
Ahead of zanza coming up here. Great. I am curious, though, can you provide some color on where you're seeing the most cabo utilization in NET where are you seeing in terms of settings versus chemo and radiopharmaceuticals and any particular patient subgroup, whether it's pancreatic or extrapancreatic?
Yes. I mean, as P.J. has talked about in the last couple of earnings calls, the launch is going really well. It's the #1 oral now in kind of new patient starts in that second-line plus segment. And so it's really reflective of the data. And if you look at CABINET broadly, I think one of the things that's most encouraging about it is just the robustness across each of those subcategories or subsegments of patients. And so we're really seeing use kind of across the board. I'd say nothing in particular jumps out, but that's kind of the benefit of having such a broadly robust data set.
Great. You also mentioned earlier, and this, I think, continues to surprise investors this many years into the launch is that you're continuing to see RCC growth and what people sort of write off as a much mature market, but you continue to gain share sequentially quarter after quarter, you're approaching about half the market, roughly speaking. in terms of market share.
And so can you maybe articulate for us where this growth continues to come from? Is it from duration of therapy? Is it just more share gains versus other small molecules, increased utilization of IO and TKI combo? Maybe just some color there would be helpful.
Yes. I mean, as we've talked about kind of the data that we've provided is additional share gains. And we go out and fight every day for that incremental share point because we understand what that means from a value and from a revenue perspective. But someone asked the other day like why or how. And it's really simple, good data and good team and the data that we've generated and the data that we continue to generate, say, kind of long-term 5-year data and all of these updates that you see at conferences like ASCO GU or when they're presented, that gives an opportunity for our commercial organization, for our reps to go out and have conversations with clinicians about why we think that cabo/nivo should be the preferred option for these patients.
And having the right team in place to then go out and have those conversations and interactions with prescribers is really, at the end of the day, the recipe for success. And that's something that our maniacal focus on cabo and the success of cabo, we're not distracted by 1 million other different things. It is something that I think makes us relatively unique. and is something that, as you mentioned, we're seeing continued growth this far after approval. It's something we're really proud of.
Great. I want to turn to zanza here, and we were all at ESMO last year. And so maybe could you briefly recap the STELLAR-303 data for us and then contextualize what do these data imply for its use in sort of previously treated metastatic CRC here?
Yes. So the STELLAR-303 is really interesting study kind of strong foundation, let's say, to help build zanza where we think it could go to ultimately be candidly bigger than cabo. So that study was looking at zanza plus atezo versus regorafenib, which is the standard of care in that kind of third line plus space, showed a statistically and clinically meaningful improvement over the standard of care on overall survival, which is the gold standard in oncology.
And I think the important part of that, roughly 11 months, 10.9 versus 9-ish months in the control arm is really that consistency of data and that consistency of benefit across the board. That's something that has stood out in all of our market research, not only around the different patient populations, but even say, looking at things like prior treatment with, say, Avastin, where other studies say may have seen a little bit of a different dynamic, different efficacy across whether patients had seen prior Avastin or not.
So that consistency of benefit is something that stands out. Maybe adding to that, we had a poster at this most recent ASCO conference, we had a pretty elegant way to -- and one of the dynamics there, and it shows that the combination of zanza/atezo does have an additive benefit for patients. Just the only other thing I'd add is kind of the 303 study was the latest in a series of up until then, unsuccessful attempts to get IO into this patient population.
And if you compare it to, say, prior studies like LEAP-17, at the end of the day, the biggest differentiating factor candidly, was probably zanza. And so it does, at least to me show that zanza is a differentiated best-in-class TKI. And that's why we're so excited not only about the 303 opportunity, but as I mentioned before, using that kind of as that foundation to build on from there.
I want to double-click on something you just mentioned here, which is use of IO in this particular patient population. I think people who treat colorectal are familiar with using KEYTRUDA and other IO agents in the MSI-high population, but it hasn't really been used in this particular later-line population, let alone in combination. And so can you maybe share your thoughts on whatever physician feedback has been both since that ASCO poster that you referenced and ESMO with regard to use of combination therapy here from the KOLs?
Yes. I mean that's actually something that has consistently jumped out in market research and conversations that we've had. I think if you take a little bit of a step back and think about the CRC market in general. One of the things that's a little bit different about CRC, say, than some of other tumor types is it tends to be a little bit more community-based than kind of academic KOL based. And what that functionally means oftentimes is these clinicians, these prescribers are treating CRC patients and lung cancer patients and RCC and kind of across the board.
So what that inherently means is they all have this high degree of familiarity with checkpoint inhibitors. And so up until now, their patients have come to them and said, "Hey, I just saw this commercial on the Super Bowl for this thing. Can it help me? And unfortunately, no, it's not approved for your type of cancer. Well, if zanza is approved later this year with atezo, the answer can be yes. And so that dynamic around patient awareness, physician familiarity, frankly, the chemo-free option for patients who have had a relatively long journey in CRC with multiple prior rounds of chemotherapy, all of those things kind of build into this market dynamic around an excitement around the doublet. And so it's something that you're right to point out, certainly comes up, but we're -- at the end of the day, we're eager to help launch this and get it into patients.
Great. Maybe one more question on KOL feedback before we move on is any sense from either the physician community at ESMO or more recently at ASCO, if there's a particularly readily identical patient population where an IO plus zanza combination would be most initially used, I guess, based on either the patient background, demographics or just sort of appetite to try an IO combination here?
Yes. I mean I mentioned it before, but one of the things that's most encouraging, I think, about the data set is just the consistency across subgroup. One of the dynamics that you can often see is in other studies at least, maybe an effect size in one particular subgroup driving the overall activity. We don't see that same dynamic here. And so as we've gone out to the market and kind of done a lot of this research ahead of time, that theme has actually played out that it doesn't really seem like it's just one particular group that seems most likely or most -- most appropriate for this.
Frankly, it's our goal, our job is to ensure that zanza/atezo is used in the widest group possible. Again, if you take a step back and think about kind of the overall CRC landscape, what we've said is it's about $1.5 billion kind of total market, but that's relatively evenly split between, say, the SUNLIGHT regimen, TKIs and then kind of a mix of chemos and some other things. So our goal, frankly, is really to penetrate across all 3 of those segments as broadly as possible because we do think that this is really a new novel combination that really has the potential to help these patients live longer.
Great. Your PDUFA is coming up for zanza in December here. And so I guess one question is, would you launch immediately upon approval here in the calendar year? Or would you sort of wait for the turn of the calendar given the rough holiday timing? And then my second question is, how do you think about pricing here given the data you have and maybe some of what your payer conversations have suggested in terms of what the market can support?
Carefully. I mean I think it's something that we haven't discussed widely publicly. But I think pricing of any medicine is an important consideration, and it's something that we're spending a lot of time with. As it relates to your question on launch timing and preparedness, we're going to be ready to launch kind of day 1. When that happens, we're going to be ready. And so it's certainly not something that we're going to want to wait until the new calendar year because at the end of the day, our job at Exelixis is ultimately to help patients live longer.
And we want to get this new medicine into the hands of prescribers and ultimately the patients candidly as soon as possible because we really do think that this has a potential to right shift that survival curve and benefit patients. And so we're going to be ready from day 1. If it happens on the PDUFA and happens earlier, there's always that possibility. We want to make sure that we're not going to be the limiting step here for patients.
Great. Historically, you've partnered your cabo sales in terms of ex U.S. markets. But can you maybe first update us on your regulatory plans for sort of the key ex U.S. markets for zanza here and then sort of the commercial strategy as you advance on the regulatory side for zanza, at least initially here in CRC?
Yes. So it's something that, again, we spend a lot of time on kind of internally thinking through all of those different dynamics. As you can appreciate, there's a lot of inputs to say, going into that. One of the, frankly, most relevant ones is just understanding the MFN dynamic and how pricing ex U.S. is going to potentially play a role in the U.S. as well. So as you know, we own rights to zanza globally. We have yet to kind of decide on what we're going to do with kind of that ex-U.S. market. Outcomes range from do we want to launch it ourselves? Do we want to find a European partner?
Do we want to find a global partner kind of ex U.S. as opposed to, say, what we've done with cabo with Ipsen ex U.S., ex Japan and then our partners, Takeda with the Japanese rights. So there's all those different dynamics around it. But I think what we want to ensure is we get that U.S. launch right first, understand all of the relative dynamics around MFN and ex U.S. pricing and its potential influence on the U.S. market, and then we'll kind of come to a real decision around what we're going to do with the rest of the world.
There's also obviously the consideration of indication expansion there as well, which we can address in a moment. But you talked earlier about sort of the 3 segments of -- within mCRC. But as you look at sort of commercial analogs here, there have been 1 or 2 launches in the small molecule space in CRC here in the U.S. in the past couple of years. But is there any one that you'd probably call out as sort of the best analog for zanza launch here? And I guess also on the commercial side, how much of your current cabo, whether it's on the RCC or net side prescriber base overlaps with a potential CRC prescribing population?
Yes. Probably tough to speculate on kind of what's the most similar launch dynamic. I mean, candidly, I think the way we view it is our goal, our job is to maximize penetration as quickly as possible into that segment that I mentioned before, either the $1.5 billion total market or the 3 different patient buckets. And so that's, frankly, our goal is to kind of maximize the value there as quickly as we can. As it relates to kind of this commercial footprint and overlap with the sales force, as I mentioned before, getting those boots on the ground, focusing initially on kind of maximizing the NET launch while also gaining familiarity with the customers, gaining familiarity with our own internal systems.
That's an important driver. And so our goal, if you fast forward the clock a couple of years, is to have much more of an equally balanced GI and GU footprint, whereas now we're much more GU than GI just based on kind of RCC and its relative maturity to NET. But as we layer on zanza CRC in additional indications and kind of cabo continues to build out in NET, we see that kind of GI/GU as ideally more 50-50 split.
One of the things we talked about ahead of the NET launch, and again, this kind of plays into the dynamic, one of the breadth of cabo, but two, the community versus academic space -- at the time of the NET launch, we saw a really high amount of existing cabo prescribers, something like 75%, 80% of NET prescribers already wrote cabo for another indication. And the remainder were generally co-located in sites that in an office next door, for example, tended to give cabo. And so that's the foundation or the kind of base point to where we're going to grow from commercially for zanza.
Great. If there are any questions in the audience, please raise your hand, and we can get a mic to you. In the interim, I want to turn to the STELLAR-304 study, in which you're evaluating nivo plus zanza and the non-clear cell RCC population. The study is, I believe, scheduled to top line in the second half of this year. And so maybe as we think about non-clear cell RCC, how do you guys forecast or estimate the potential TAM here versus the clear cell market?
Yes. I mean if you look at kind of just purely the epi, it's about 20% of RCC. So it's a reasonable proxy, I guess, kind of plus/minus depending on a bunch of different factors. But just looking purely on the segmentation of patients, I think that's a good starting point.
Maybe just to provide an overview, how are these patients sort of more or less currently treated? Are they allocated to any particular therapy or directed any way in terms of current treatment approaches? And as you think about your 1L study, this will be sort of the first directly focused study, I believe, in this population. How could that, I guess, in your view, potentially change prescribing behavior in this category?
Yes. That's one of the, I think, kind of the more interesting dynamics around, frankly, any indication is we've looked at it. When we first started discussing the non-clear cell opportunity, it really was, at the end of the day, pretty surprising that there had never been a pivotal study run in that indication for a variety of historic reasons. Basically, approval in the non-clear cell space is done somewhat by inference. Every drug that's approved in clear cell is also approved in non-clear cell, the label, it reflects both despite the fact that non-clear cell hasn't really been studied in that robust way.
So right now, use is somewhat guidelines driven and those guidelines, again, are kind of informed by single-arm unrandomized potentially selected relatively small end studies and all of the inherent challenges and limitations with those sorts of things. Someone mentioned to me recently that use and utilization in the non-clear cell space can be something akin to like which unrandomized study do you trust more sort of thing. And so the result of that is utilization is a little bit more mixed than I think one would expect.
There's not a lot of great market share data because we don't necessarily have all of that information. Is this a clear cell script or a non-clear cell script. We just -- it's somewhat imperfect from that perspective. And so our sense is that if we can come to market with robust data showing compelling treatment effect against a current standard of care, then that provides an opportunity to really establish what that standard of care is, kind of planting a flag in the ground, so to speak. and really kind of go from there.
Great. One question I have is, given that you're doing a combination therapy with a checkpoint inhibitor, how central sort of to the commercial outlook here is hitting on the OS secondary endpoint, to your view, to driving adoption of this combination in non-clear cell RCC.
Yes. I mean, candidly, I think it's somewhat of a statement of the obvious. The more robust data we have, the better. One of the lessons from 9ER is hitting that response rate, PFS and ultimately survival have certainly helped adoption. I can't speculate on what the data is going to be. But again, our hope is we want to be able to come to market with as compelling of a story to, again, help patients live longer without cancer and ultimately live longer.
Great. Assuming the data are positive from 304, can you walk us through what time lines might be to either presenting the detailed data and filing the sNDA? How does this maybe compare to maybe some cabo analogs, if that's appropriate? Or do you think you can move more quickly here given you'll be launching zanza in the not-too-distant future?
Yes. I mean I think the short answer is probably as soon as possible. Again, one of the 3 lines that we talked about at the company is live longer and recover stronger is a motto at the company. And so at the end of the day, if we're able to show positive data, we want to do everything we can possibly do to get it in the hands of prescribers and ultimately patients because that's what we're here for. And so I think we certainly have a history of being able to move quickly, being able to prioritize effectively and efficiently to either present the full data or submit at an accelerated pace. So something we're going to hope to do, but we'll see based on the data.
We've just touched on 2 of the pivotal programs for zanza here, but you have multiple other studies going on, including one in MRD-positive CRC, which I think is super interesting, and we're just starting to scratch the surface on that one as well as combination studies with Merck's WELIREG in post-adjuvant IO frontline RCC as well as a second-line population. And then also in neuroendocrine tumors.
So I guess, first, you have a lot going on in terms of multiple programs. which, I guess, if you were to guesstimate could potentially be completed earliest? And the second question is, as you think about resourcing and just sort of assessing the scenario of wins for these potential studies, how do you think about resourcing and likelihood of success here?
Yes. I mean I think that's something that hopefully differentiates Exelixis from a lot of other companies is that we're trying to be particularly strategic and thoughtful around indication selection and clinical trial design and development in that at the end of the day, we want to run positive studies and positive studies in large market opportunities. And so if you look at the 7 pivotals that we have ongoing or announced right now, they're all in relatively large market opportunities, and they're all in areas that I think are relatively high probability of success studies and we're running them in a way to be capital efficient.
A model that we liked with cabo that we've now incorporated into zanza is this idea of finding clinical collaborators. So you take, say, our relationship with Merck, which you mentioned before, we're running 3 studies now with them. Functionally speaking, kind of the way that the economics work is the costs are split basically 50-50 across the 3 studies. And so that's a really capital-efficient way for us to interrogate broadly the zanza opportunity, but also have a chance to work with probably the best oncology drug developer in the world who's also, frankly, our biggest competitor.
And so it's this kind of interesting dynamic where we're able to efficiently allocate that incremental investment dollar in zanza to ultimately broaden that revenue opportunity, but in a way that we think all have high probability of success, whether it's 316 where either zanza alone or zanza plus pembro is randomized against watch and wait or placebo, just given the dynamics of that indication or looking at, say, the post-adjuvant RCC or later-line RCC, all these things kind of we take each study individually as something that we think is a smart investment to make because it's -- ultimately, as I've mentioned multiple times today, our goal, our job is to establish a new standard of care for patients. That's why we're here. And so if we're able to do that, we believe that will translate to meaningful revenue. And if we can generate meaningful revenue, we can generate value for all stakeholders in the company.
We have a couple of minutes left here, but maybe turning to your earlier-stage pipeline. Can you maybe for investors who are not as deep, call out 1 or 2 earlier-stage assets that may have a nearer-term clinical readout? And versus what gets, I guess, most excited? I think DLL3 looks super interesting. There's been some progress there most recently at ASCO. But if you were to call out sort of 1 or 2 near-term catalysts, what would you point investors to?
Yes. I mean without kind of getting into the specifics of timing, the way we view our early-stage pipeline is we want to generate as much data as quickly as possible to help get us to that go/no-go decision. And what we mean by that is, is there an asset that's going to raise its hand with data and say, invest in me in a pivotal study. We're not in the business of kind of dragging something along to show 10 patients here worth of data and say, okay, look, how great this is, go raise some money and raise some blah, blah.
That's all too common probably, unfortunately, in biotech, but that's just the reality of how our business works. We're in the fortunate position where we don't need to go out and kind of potentially overpromise. What we're going to do is essentially show a profile of this is what, say, XB628 is versus what this is what it could be. And so we're going to present data when it's mature, stable and a sufficient cohort to get a sense of what that is. But the way, again, coming back to kind of the beginning of the conversation to view our early-stage pipeline is through that franchise space.
So take XB371, the tissue factor ADC that we conceived of as a CRC asset to kind of build upon that foundation with zanza. Similarly, with XB628, so that's our PD-L1 NKG2A bispecific, that one has really interesting novel biology looking at bringing in both the adaptive and the innate immune system. But really kind of the crux of that is asking the question, well, does that mechanism, does that combination have the potential to combine well with, say, something like zanza.
So again, that's kind of this franchise build-out mode of building on and further enabling zanza across all those different indications. And so that's kind of the best lens to view the early pipeline, whether it's the SSTR program. Same thing, that has the ability to meaningfully drive utilization and something like NET. And so that's probably the best way to view the early pipeline is through this franchise lens and maximize value kind of across these multiple different factors.
Great. We're up on time here. So I think we'll end it on that note. My thanks to Andrew for sharing how Exelixis is evolving from a sort of a one product story into a multiproduct, multimodal story.
Thanks. Great. Thank you.
Thank you.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Exelixis, Inc. — Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Exelixis stellt den Übergang von einer Ein‑Produkt‑Story zu mehreren Franchises in den Vordergrund, mit Cabo als Cash‑Motor und Zanza als nächstem kommerziellen Treiber.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Strategie: Wandel von einem Single‑Franchise‑Unternehmen zu einem Multi‑Franchise‑Ansatz: Ausbau von Cabo, erwarteter Launch von Zanza in 3L+ kolorektalem Krebs und parallele Investitionen in frühe Programme und ADC-/bispezifische Plattformen.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Cabo‑Momentum: Weiteres organisches Wachstum in RCC und NET; Marktanteilsgewinne durch robuste Daten und fokussierte Vertriebsmannschaft.
- Zanza‑Wirkung: STELLAR‑303 zeigte signifikanten Gesamtüberlebensvorteil gegenüber Regorafenib; Management sieht Zanza potenziell größer als Cabo.
- Kooperationen: Kapital‑effiziente Studienpartnerschaften (z.B. Merck) teilen Kosten und erhöhen Entwicklungs‑Durchschlagskraft.
- Kapitalallokation: Cash‑Generierung soll reinvestiert werden; auch aktienrückkäufe als shareholder‑freundliche Option genannt.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- PDUFA: Zanza‑Entscheidung erwartet im Dezember; Company betont Day‑1‑Launchbereitschaft.
- Preisfindung: Management diskutiert Preis vorsichtig; Benchmarks, MFN‑Effekte und Erstattungsdialoge laufen, aber keine Zahl genannt.
- Ex‑US‑Plan: Rechte global gehalten, Entscheidung über Partner/Launch ex‑US noch offen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Umsatzmix Cabo: Nachfrage nach NET‑Anteil wurde nicht numerisch beantwortet; Company veröffentlicht diese Breakdowns nicht mehr aus Wettbewerbsgründen.
- Gründe für RCC‑Wachstum: Management führt es auf überlegene Daten, Vertriebsarbeit und langfristige Datenauswertungen zurück.
- Zanza‑Open‑Points: Diskussionen zu Preisgestaltung, Erstattungsbereitschaft, ex‑US‑Strategie; konkrete Antworten ausweichend, Launch‑Bereitschaft jedoch klar.
- Klinische Pipeline: Nachfrage zu STELLAR‑304 (non‑clear cell RCC), MRD‑Studien und frühen Assets (z.B. XB371, XB628); Management nennt Zeitpläne prinzipiell beschleunigt bei positiven Daten.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Relevanz: Positives klinisches Momentum (Zanza OS‑Daten) plus stabiles Cabo‑Cashprofil schaffen plausiblen Weg zu Umsatzwachstum. Kurzfristige Katalysatoren: Zanza PDUFA (Dezember) und STELLAR‑304‑Topline (H2). Hauptunsicherheiten bleiben Preis, Erstattungsdialoge und die Ex‑US‑Go‑to‑Market‑Entscheidung.
Exelixis, Inc. — Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Well, good morning, everyone. I really do appreciate it. My name is Akash Tewari. I head our firm in biotech efforts on the research side here at Jefferies, and I have the pleasure of hosting the Exelixis management team which, again, is a commercial stage company that is in several different tumor types and is a leader kind of in renal carcinoma. But then also has ambitions to really think about VEGF inhibition in a broader subset of diseases, and that's what they're explaining -- looking at with zanza, Andrew, why don't I hand it off to you for some intro remarks, and then we'll get started.
Yes. Thank you for the invite. Always a great conference. Great set of meetings today. Always good to meet with investors. Just as a reminder, we're making forward-looking statements today. So please see relevant disclosures in our regulatory filings for risks related to our business. But I would certainly agree with you, I mean Exelixis is -- I don't know what generation of the company it is at this point, but we're kind of in that important transition point from going from our first franchise product in cabozantinib to our next franchise in zanzalintinib. And that's kind of the lens that we view the world of drug development, the world of oncology is kind of through this franchise mode where -- not only are we investing kind of broadly in each molecule.
But within each tumor type, for example, we're also kind of broadening our investment there. So whether it's RCC, we're going to continue to be the leaders in RCC or a newer area like colorectal cancer with zanza, not only kind of this later line setting with the STELLAR-303 study, but investing, say, in the 316 study in the earlier line and then layering on our pipeline as well, say, XB371, our tissue factor ADC, which we really view as a colorectal asset as well. So it's kind of that franchise mode that we're really using to kind of define our 2026 and beyond. But happy to get into a lot of the details there.
I want to start with more of a conceptual question. And it's interesting. I still remember back in 2020, I think Mike had put up like the $4 billion number on cabo. And obviously, okay, cabo didn't get there, fine. It still became a multibillion-dollar product. There were a lot of successes. But I think -- and I don't know if Michael ever admit it, but I do feel like you guys learned from kind of that second wave of drug development with cabo and you're applying a lot of those learnings to zanza. And I think that's actually quite interesting, right? I don't see a lot of studies like COSMIC-303, right?
I see a lot of studies where you're looking at adjuvant settings, post maintenance settings, areas where there's really defined clinical unmet need. Can you talk about kind of -- is that perception correct, right? And what learnings did you have from kind of that development you had with cabo that you're now applying to zanza that you feel like maybe investors are missing?
Yes. I mean I would certainly say kind of taking a step back, everything we do at Exelixis is kind of through what we call the cabo lens, learning what's been successful, learning what to do right and learning kind of areas that we should avoid in the future. But I would correct one thing. We certainly continue to be excited about the growth profile for cabo going forward. So it's something that as we look ahead to, say, 2030, we're still certainly excited about it. But that cabo lens is really a couple of different things. Cabo has been successful commercially because we've been able to define a new standard of care in the areas that we've developed it, whether it's second line RCC first with the METEOR study then as a monotherapy in first-line RCC and then in combination with nivo.
The reason cabo is used is because it helps patients live longer and helps patients live longer without their tumor progressing and all of the important decisions and drivers for utilization there. And so what that means is that we're in the business of running studies that we think have the potential to really define that new standard of care. The second piece is we're also in the business of running successful studies. We're not in the business of just running trials for the sake of doing it. And so we try and be particularly thoughtful around probability of success trial design, statistical powering, understanding kind of appropriate comparators to really make sure that the data we're generating enables physicians and patients to really drive those treatment decisions.
And so that kind of cabo lens is really when we apply it to zanza, it's what are areas of unmet need and large market opportunities? What are studies that we can run to kind of help define and plant a flag in the ground for zanza to be the new standard of care? And can we do it in a way that's capital efficient. I'm sure Chris will talk about this later, but one of the models that we really liked with cabo was working with clinical collaborators, whether it's Bristol, Roche, Genentech or now Merck, kind of splitting costs, splitting risk, splitting expertise, splitting capability and being efficient in how you run pivotal studies.
We'll sell a lot of -- Bristol sells a lot of nivo in RCC. We sell a lot of cabo. Kind of that same dynamic with zanza is certainly an approach we want to do going forward. And so kind of taking a step back, as we think about that zanza franchise approach, it's about all of those learnings and lessons in that cabo lens and applying it to what we think is a best-in-class molecule in areas of high unmet need where we can define a new standard of care.
I mean, I think maybe let's start with kind of first-line RCC. And again, you mentioned you go where the puck is headed. Can you give us some perspective about really what your overall long-term strategy is in first-line, a, like is there an ambition to ultimately run that CheckMate 9ER trial? And what would that look like? Because you've alluded that might go with maybe even partnerships outside of Merck. And then number two is what is the opportunity in the post-pembro setting, right? And if you were to think about that commercial opportunity to what you have currently in first-line RCC, is there an argument to be made that actually the post-pembro maintenance is a larger commercial opportunity?
Yes. So I think both of those questions are somewhat related to kind of our core -- one of our core strategic principles is basically, again, through this franchise lens, we want -- we're the leaders in RCC, and we want to continue to be the leaders in RCC. Our kind of view on it is if cabo is the TKI of choice in RCC for the 2020s, we want to run a series of trials to define zanza as the TKI of choice in the 2030s. And so you mentioned kind of our efforts so far.
We have the 3 studies ongoing in RCC. And I think just to kind of answer your question on market opportunity, given rough guidance for a little over $2 billion in that space across those 3 studies. But the way we think about it is where you said how is standard of care evolving over time? How is that patient's journey in kidney cancer evolving over time? As more patients are diagnosed earlier, as more patients who are diagnosed kind of in that more localized setting, get adjuvant therapy, adjuvant pembro, this question of what should they get afterwards starts to come up, and that's the LITESPARK-033 study. We really want to define what that is. And then similarly, kind of as the treatment journey gets redefined for patients in that later line setting, the combination of zanza and belz, we're evaluating versus belz monotherapy. So both of those, we think we have reasonably high likelihoods of being successful, again, to kind of define the new standard of care. On the question of frontline, we think we kind of have half of that covered right now that frontline but post pembro adjuvant.
The 15,000 patients?
Yes, plus/minus. I think it depends on kind of how we see and how someone views the evolution of that utilization over time as well as the evolution of when patients are diagnosed, does the advent of improved diagnostic modalities kind of change some of that time course of metastatic diagnosis versus prior. So it's a multifunctional kind of dynamic. But when we think about that kind of de novo metastatic first-line space, it's certainly an area that we want to invest in, but it's one that we want to be thoughtful about how we invest in because our own experience with COSMIC-313, as you mentioned, as well as the recent LITESPARK-012 data show that you have to be particularly thoughtful and careful about rational combinations -- where does the biology suggest that what are those combinations that have the potential to shift the standard of care?
Because say, going back to COSMIC-313, that was a successful study on PFS, but as we looked at the opportunity and kind of the lack of survival data and again, this patient journey dynamic in RCC, where there are now multiple lines of therapy understanding the trade-offs between PFS benefit with additional tox without survival versus sequence therapies, that's just a dynamic that's relevant for every patient who has kidney cancer. And so Mike talked about it, Dana talked about it. One of the dynamics that we're certainly thinking about is we think zanza is a best-in-class TKI.
We think it has the potential to be a backbone therapy and its shorter half-life and all of its profile lend itself to kind of being that sort of backbone. And the question becomes, what are the sorts of mechanisms, orthogonal mechanisms, in particular, that you can kind of come at the cancer from multiple different angles to try and really drive the most robust benefit because at the end of the day, we don't want to run a study to generate similar data to what we've seen before. We want to run a study to be successful. So that's where we're being really thoughtful about. But I think, as Mike has said, we tend to view zanza in terms of waves of development in that kind of next wave in RCC, we're excited to share.
I mean -- so look, to that point, I guess the kind of nuanced question there is, do you think it will ultimately be a triplet regimen or a doublet regimen, right? Because you'll talk to maybe some of your peers in the space that are more on the HIF-2 alpha side, right, where they're like, look, we're not -- we want to go with a doublet regimen. And ultimately, we think that would be beneficial and Merck ultimately went with the triplet, and that was really the error. But really that doublet combo is good enough to be better than, let's say, CheckMate 9ER, the LEAP trial.
There's another view of like, well, no, I mean, you are going to need 3 different therapies here. They need to all be combinable and they need to be tolerable so that you can actually get that DOR. But we're not comfortable with just, let's say, a HIF-2 alpha TKI combo first line as better than CheckMate 9ER. What's your team's kind of internal thinking there, doublet or triplet when you do ultimately go into that frontline setting?
I guess the answer candidly is kind of it depends on what those are. The reason I mentioned the orthogonal mechanisms before is if you think about kind of the HIF space and VEGF TKIs, we think that the secret sauce, special sauce for zanza is that it hits kind of this whole other neighborhood of MET, AXL, MER, the TAM kinases, et cetera. That's kind of why we think it's different. But at the end of the day, one of its core efficacy drivers in RCC is kind of that VEGFR kinase inhibition.
Well, HIF and VEGF are kind of on the same axis. So you're kind of doubling down there. And so from a cancer biology perspective, it certainly makes sense to want to bring in an alternative mechanism to make sure that you're kind of attacking the tumor from as many different angles as possible. So your question of whether it's a doublet or a triplet, it's -- I would say it's somewhat semantic because take, for example, XB628, our PD-L1 NKG2A bispecific. A theoretical combination of that brings in adaptive immune system, innate immune system and then kind of the kinase inhibition piece. So that's probably a doublet, but it's incorporating multiple mechanisms of action as well.
So that's kind of an example of the sort of thinking that we have around, let's let the biology make the decision, drive the decision, let's let the data drive that decision and really understand how do we really, again, run a study to right shift that survival curve, right shift that PFS curve all while doing so in kind of a way that's not adding additional tox for these patients because, again, in RCC, patients are living longer and longer, and we're certainly -- it's the best part of our job to be part of that. But you have to understand that clinical benefit risk trade-off as well.
Understood. I mean, I couldn't agree with you more. But then the tricky question becomes, well, okay, if it's maybe like there's 3 options here in my mind. You have something where it's a next-gen IO approach. You have T cell engagers and then you have ADCs, right? I don't think I've seen anything early on right now, whether it's in a pharma pipeline or in a Smid-Cap pipeline where I'm like this is a step order improvement. But maybe I'm wrong here because I'm -- when do you think about those 3 modalities when adding on to zanza, where do you feel like there is this kind of natural synergy in first-line RCC? And maybe what am I and maybe what are investors missing about how this market is actually evolving over time on the pipeline side?
Yes. I mean I think kind of the latter question is really we're the leaders in RCC, and we're going to continue to be the leaders in RCC and invest appropriately to do so. That cabo lens dynamic that I mentioned before is also that we want to make sure we're appropriate stewards of shareholder capital, and so we're going to run the right study. We want to run positive ROI studies that have a high probability of success that have that opportunity to be commercially successful. Whether it's one of those modalities or others, that's kind of TBD. I think I probably am a bit more optimistic on what's out there, especially what's out there in potential combination with zanza.
One of the challenges that I think the industry has and certainly, folks like you have is trying to extrapolate the potential for later line data for Modality X into an earlier patient population. I certainly think that we have the ability kind of through the Exelixis lens to kind of understand some of those risks a little bit differently. So we're excited. We're having a lot of conversations right now about what those combinations could look like. But I think it's suffice it to say kind of the 2 key points are we're going to make appropriate investments, and we're going to make sure that we're really having a thoughtful, strong opportunity in kind of that frontline space.
And are there any targets that you think you might call out, whether it's emerging in China or otherwise? I know like there's ENNP3 bispecific data that's getting generated. There's next-gen ADCs out there. I mean, anything that you think is particularly interesting?
Yes, but I won't call them out.
Worth asking. Okay. Understood. Now when we think about LITESPARK-001, and obviously, Merck is going to have a regimen that will, let's say -- look, it looks supportive of displacing cabo in a second-line setting over a period of time. But I also find it notable that Merck right after that data is also running the exact same trial with you with zanza but now displacing belz. How do you think about -- like what is Merck see with zanza, especially in that kind of second line setting where they feel like maybe there's room left on the table from the LITESPARK-001 data to actually improve the standard of care for patients? And how do you expect to show that case with -- I know you have a Phase III trial that recently started there.
Yes. I mean I think honest answer is I don't really want to put words in Merck's mouth. But from our perspective, I think we certainly view zanza as a best-in-class TKI. And the totality of data generated for any of those combinations would suggest that tolerability is really important. Combinability dose selection is really important. And so can the combination of zanza as a best-in-class TKI and belz as a highly efficacious kind of very good HIF inhibitor can that have the potential to generate strong data, both from an efficacy perspective, but also from a safety and tolerability perspective.
Because, again, how you combine, how you double down on kind of that VEGF axis is really important. And so understanding the differences, say, between len and zanza is particularly important. But again, I think it's also in part on how kind of patients will be treated in the future. So that's just -- as I mentioned before, that's one of the key considerations that when we have conversations with our now partner, that's where a lot of that begins.
Just closing the loop on second line. I mean my sense is it's maybe like a $300 million to $600 million or somewhere in the range, let's say, it's about $500 million in second-line RCC for cabo. But your team has been kind of -- a, I know you guys have never admitted that, so that's me. But number two, you've kind of said like, look, as use in first -- like second line goes down, there's potential uptake in first line and patients -- doctors are really thinking about stratifying different therapies. So when you think about the absolute impact on the LITESPARK-001 data as that regimen gets on to the market as we think about to the end of the decade. Do you think there will be any impact on absolute cabo sales? Or no, you're going to see this natural switch of as second-line use declines in a subset of patients, there's going to be an offsetting increase in first-line usage?
Yes. I mean, without kind of getting into guidance on guidance kind of long-term outlook, I think that's probably directionally consistent. I mean the most simplistic way to think about it is if a physician has come to the conclusion that len/pem is probably their go-to treatment of choice in second line, what it probably means is they would no longer use len/pem or len/belz second line. They would no longer use len/pem in the first line because you wouldn't [indiscernible] twice. And so what that means, functionally speaking, is for those patients who are likely to get an IOTKI, cabo/nivo becomes kind of that frontline modality of choice.
And if you think about, generally speaking, over the last 3 to 5 years, that dynamic of trying to drive every additional market share point in frontline RCC, that's been our primary focus anyway because the frontline market, just factually speaking, tends to have longer duration, longer time on drug. So it tends to drive incrementally higher revenue kind of first line versus second line. Still TBD, a little bit early to see kind of how all of these new combinations get adopted in the market, whether share is coming from single-agent TKIs or len/av, which is another regimen that's used right now. So there's kind of a lot of moving pieces. But directionally speaking, that's probably a reasonable way to think about it at least right now.
Understood. Now can you touch a bit on -- I know there was data at ASCO presented with cabo, actually running something similar to what you're running in non-clear cell against sunitinib in first line. A, can you talk about your early thoughts on that data set? Obviously, it was Phase II and academic run. And then -- so, a, how do you think a clinician will look at that data? And then number two, how do you -- what's your level of confidence? I know you have a Phase III in non-clear cell that's reading out later this year about whether your drug will differentiate there? Or what's kind of the magnitude of improvement you're expecting over sunitinib?
Yes. I mean it's a good example of one of the unique dynamics around the non-clear cell space in that honestly, when we first started thinking about it, I was surprised that there had never been a Phase III done in that setting. And the way that I kind of conceptualize it is utilization in part is essentially driven by this idea of which small on unrandomized Phase I/II do I trust more as a physician and a patient because we all know the caveats and limitations of these smaller studies, patient selection. Frankly, investigators are really good at identifying and selecting certain patients for these trials, which is a dynamic that you don't see and really can't do in large randomized Phase III studies.
And so it's group over here of utilization being all over the map because it's defined by a bunch of different ISTs or single-arm studies and then 304 being the opportunity to kind of plant a flag in the ground and say, this is the standard of care potentially in the non-clear cell space. And so there are kind of 2 different things. And so I think the way that we look at it and certainly, our market research is emerging in that direction is that physicians will be comfortable using what drug or what combination has Level 1 evidence of showing an advantage over a standard of care. It's just that non-clear cell for a variety of kind of historic reasons, utilization is driven by inference and driven by the fact that all kidney cancer drugs are approved for both clear cell and non-clear cell.
Right. Understood. Now stepping back and Andrew, this is a conversation you and I have had about how much you think buy-side and sell-side analysts of the zanza indications, you have 8 trials announced. How many of them are actually in people's models? I think it's probably 2 or 3. And then relative to the trials that you actually have ongoing -- for the -- for us, we haven't modeled those other 5 indications, right? What are your favorite children, right? What are those markets where, again, it fits that profile of really clear unmet need, potent shoot. So you have high confidence that zanza will get established into standard of care? And then number two, do you think the commercial opportunities are really underappreciated?
Yes. I mean, it's an honest answer in saying, I think we've been particularly thoughtful around each of the studies. Our goal for 2026 and beyond is to really show that zanza is a franchise molecule. And we're certainly excited about 303 and the launch and kind of priority 1A as a company, but it's really kind of setting the foundation for zanza as an opportunity. And so we think about it as a franchise and collectively across all of those studies, where individually, we think they're all reasonably sized, if not very large market opportunities with high probabilities of success.
And so honestly, my view is look at each one of them individually and have a conversation, have an understanding, do whatever work you need to do to understand is this study likely to succeed? And if it succeeds, what is the commercial opportunity here? An example of that, say, like STELLAR-316. So that's another area where we're essentially defining a new standard of care because right now, with the advent of Natera's Signatera test, there's this new patient population that if they're ctDNA positive,
now finds themselves at very high risk of relapse.
Until that kind of new diagnostic modality was available that dynamic didn't really exist. And so we're looking at either zanza monotherapy, zanza in combination with subcu pembro against watch and wait placebo. And so that's an indication where we've already shown a survival benefit in a much later heavily pretreated population that we know is sensitive to this sort of therapeutic modality. And so it's an example where we're defining a new patient population. There are a lot of these patients who really do need a therapeutic intervention because right now, they're being told that there's a really high risk of their cancer recurring, but there's nothing you can do about it.
And so that kind of anxiety, that kind of unmet need is very palpable. And so it's a sort of thing where simplistically, again, any time you can randomize a large global or large randomized study against placebo, it's probably...
The size of that commercial opportunity, let's say, relative to RCC and first line, how should we think about that?
I think at the highest level, we've said there's 12,000 plus/minus patients. How that number evolves over time is kind of that availability and utilization of the Signatera test improves. Similarly, if there is a therapeutic intervention is there a higher likelihood of one, people getting tested, but two, people getting treated. It's a reasonably sized market. And then kind of at the end of the day, the math is pretty simple. It's number of patients, time share, times price, times [ adoption ]. So...
Chris, for you to kind of wrap it up. It's funny. Your stock has tripled, not funny. That's credit to what you've done. But it's interesting. A lot of investors are like, "I don't get it. Why are they still buying back their shares?" And normally, when a company buys back their shares, the obvious announcement is we think we're undervalued, right? But you're also at this point, as you approach the cabo LOE, where there is this question of like, well, what's the allocation between external BD, buying back our own shares and then also pursuing other kind of Merck partnerships where you can really divvy up the capital cost. What's the right balance for you now that you've already -- you've gotten to this new level in terms of valuation and investor expectations? Should we continue to expect this level of share buybacks on a go-forward basis? Or this is more of like a temporary dynamic?
Yes. So I mean, from a capital allocation perspective, we look at it not mutually exclusive in any way in 3 buckets, right? R&D expense that we have every year, potential BD, M&A and then share buyback. And like I said, they're not mutually exclusive. So we've committed to spending $1 billion or less in R&D for the time being. We continue to look at assets from a BD M&A perspective. We haven't -- as our record has shown, we haven't found that many things that we really like, but we're continuing to look. And then we've been buying back shares for the last 3 years almost since first approval in March of '23.
And you kind of touched on the undervalued part, right? When you look at the -- how the analysts are modeling it and how this -- the Street generally is modeling zanza which is our next potential franchise molecule. There are not a lot of the indications in there. The ability to continue to develop zanza in a way that will drive sales in the 2030s, as Andrew talked about, the TKI, the 2030s we think -- we continue to think we're undervalued, and that's one of the reasons.
I know it's not going to be guidance, but I will take this question in. You think you're undervalued. And you guys have given long-term perspectives on zanza. But this is a question you get -- your partner with Bristol. Bristol gets this comment of like, is there a trough? Is there growth? It seems to me like a lot of the zanza Phase III start to read out before the end of the decade. And you're going to start to get uptake. Is there a possibility you have just straight growth through the cabo LOE? Is that how investors should be thinking about this?
Yes. Like you said, I'm not going to give guidance on that. But I think we're very excited about the opportunity that zanza brings and the potential that at the end of this decade, the beginning of the next decade, that zanza allows us to grow through that LOE for cabo.
But to add maybe this, any potential of like JPMorgan from a few years ago where you call your shot and give kind of a 4-, 5-year commercial outlook on zanza and the uptake. Is there appetite internally to do that anytime in the near future?
That's a tough question to answer. I mean it depends, right? It depends on -- we did that because -- we did that back in 2020 because we weren't getting a lot of credit for 9ER or the potential of 9ER and then the other indications we're developing. And if we see that situation again, and we'll evaluate everything.
Okay. Understood. Thank you so much. I really do appreciate it.
Thank you.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Exelixis, Inc. — Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Exelixis skizziert den Übergang von Cabozantinib zur nächsten Franchise zanzalintinib mit gezielten Phase‑III‑Programmen, Partnerschaften und fortgesetzten Aktienrückkäufen.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Franchise-Fokus: Exelixis will Cabozantinib‑Erfolge (Cabo) als "Cabo‑Lens" nutzen, um zanzalintinib (zanza) in mehreren Tumorarten als neues Franchise zu etablieren.
- Risikoteilung: Pivotal‑Studien sollen oft partnerschaftlich durchgeführt werden (Kosten/Know‑how teilen) für Kapital‑Effizienz.
- Rationales Design: Priorität für Indikationen mit großem ungedecktem Bedarf und solide statistische Planung statt Many‑shot‑Trials.
📈 Strategische Highlights
- RCC‑Strategie: Drei laufende Schlüsselstudien in Nierenzellkarzinom (inkl. post‑Pembrolizumab und First‑line‑Überlegungen) mit dem Ziel, zanza als TKI‑Backbone zu etablieren.
- Mechanismus‑Mix: Zanza soll wegen Wirkung auf MET/AXL/MER und VEGFR als kombinierbarer Backbone dienen; Kombinationen (bispezifische Antikörper, ADCs, IO‑Ansätze) werden geprüft.
- Kapitalallokation: Management nennt eine R&D‑Obergrenze von ≦ $1 Mrd., active BD/M&A‑Prüfung und fortgesetzte Aktienrückkäufe als koexistente Hebel.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Keine neue Guidance: Management hat keine Finanzprognose aktualisiert.
- Konkretes: R&D‑Budgetobergrenze (~$1 Mrd.), Phase‑III‑Starts/Platzierung einiger zanza‑Studien (z.B. STELLAR‑303, LITESPARK‑033/316) erwähnt; Non‑clear‑cell‑Phase‑III‑Lesung noch dieses Jahr erwartet.
- Marktgrößen‑Indikatoren: Management nennt grob ~$2 Mrd. Opportunity für die drei RCC‑Studien und ~12.000 Patienten im ctDNA‑positiven adjuvanten Bereich.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- First‑line‑Taktik: Kernfrage war Doublet vs. Triplet; Antwort: entscheidet die Biologie/die Daten, Ziel ist Kombinationen mit orthogonalen Mechanismen und akzeptabler Toxizität.
- Kommerzielle Verschiebung: Diskussion zu Auswirkungen neuer HIF‑Kombinationen auf Cabozantinib‑Umsatz; Management sieht mögliches Wachstum durch Transition in First‑line, aber keine definitive Zahl.
- Kapitalpolitik: Warum Rückkäufe? Management: Aktie weiterhin unterbewertet, Rückkäufe laufen parallel zu R&D und BD; zukünftiges Ausmaß wird nach Lage entschieden.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Relevanz: Exelixis positioniert zanzalintinib als potenzielles Franchise; Erfolg hängt von mehreren Phase‑III‑Readouts, Kombinations‑Daten und Marktentwicklung ab. Aktie bleibt sensitiv gegenüber klinischen Ergebnissen und der Kapitalallokation (Rückkäufe vs. BD).
Exelixis, Inc. — Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference
1. Question Answer
Hi. My name is Jeffrey Walch. I co-lead the U.S. biotechnology coverage at Bernstein. Very excited today to have a nice fireside chat with Michael Morrissey, PhD, President and Chief Executive Officer of Exelixis. Look forward to the conversation and thank you for attending.
All right. Great to be here. Thanks for the invitation today and looking forward to -- we had a great day. Looking forward to a great conversation. Before I begin, let me just state that I'll be making forward-looking statements today. So people listening should see our SEC filings for a description of the risks that we face in our business.
That's perfect. And Michael, really appreciate you and the team coming out today. We've had you attend multiple of these conferences and really appreciate always hearing your story. And personally, I'm excited to have this conversation today. I worked with your company back when I was at Bristol-Myers Squibb. So I know Exelixis well as a drug collaborator.
That's right, collaborator.
Yes, collaborators on dual LAG program. So look forward to a nice conversation and love to hear about your strategy and what you're sort of thinking.
I mean maybe just as a high level, just to kick us off, maybe just give an overview of Exelixis' multi-franchise strategy approach.
Yes, for sure. And I think it's what drives everything we do tactically in terms of how we look at building the business, how we've built the business so far on the strength of cabozantinib, but how we're looking to really take the business to the next level or 2 in terms of how we approach, really, every aspect of biotech R&D, commercialization, the intersection of all those different aspects together.
Look, we're all in the same business to a certain degree. We want to help patients. I think we have an overriding focus on improving the standard of care for patients with cancer. And that is largely informed by the success of cabo that we've had over the years. Getting a p-value can sometimes be really challenging. Other times, it can be relatively straightforward, but a p-value and a successful pivotal trial doesn't necessarily mean you're going to be a commercial success.
And the way you drive commercial success is you basically change standard of care. You make it such that your offering therapeutically is moving the needle for patients in a way that prescribers, payers and even patients need to stand up and acknowledge and want to be part of.
So we've done that, I think, pretty well with cabo. I mean we've learned a lot. We've done a lot. We don't always knock it out of the park in terms of some of the indications we've chosen and combinations that we've chosen, but we've really, I think, been able to funnel our view of what success looks like for a company like us. And it's really franchises.
And we -- as we talked about -- previously, we made it a big focus of our R&D Day back in December. We really think about that in terms of different dimensions, right, in terms of how we view a franchise. Obviously, you can have a franchise within a single molecule like cabo. You can reinforce franchises in indications. We focus in the GU and GI space. We don't focus on all of heme/onc. We don't focus on all of solid tumors, but we're really focused on moving the needle for GU and GI patients with cancer.
And then we have, I think, a pretty, not strict, but focused view on modalities, like, be able to put -- we want to be able to put basically drug product into a bottle and then make that bottle available commercially. So it really focuses where we want to play relative to the modalities from a manufacturing point of view. We're a relatively small company. We can only do so much heavy lifting from a manufacturing point of view. We obviously have great depth and expertise in small molecules and now biologics as we've moved in that direction. But we have to stay focused.
And that's, I think, one of the things that we've tried to strive as a management team is to really focus and prioritize. And strategy often comes down to not really so much what you're doing, but what you choose not to do and to have that discipline to be able to really narrow the focus to, again, bring benefit to patients and shareholders, but at the same time, have the right level of focus, so you can move the needle virtually every day.
So that's how we're operating, and we do that from the standpoint of how we look at targets for discovery, how we look at molecules that we can combine with relative to indications that we want to pursue within the GU and GI space. And we obviously have some flexibility. I think you've seen that with the zanza program where we're looking at peripheral indications outside of GU and GI, say, like lung maintenance or meningioma that don't really fit into that kind of strict category, but we have such interesting potential and activity that we can flex a little bit, again, look for data and kind of a surveying effect and go.
So -- but I think the team is really well organized and very focused along these kind of lanes of thought and lanes of research. And our job is to execute every day with cabo and zanza in the pipeline and assets that we can find from external sources.
That's great. I mean -- and you said before that sort of you have this product strategy, the modality strategy, the tumor franchise strategy. What would you say sort of distinguishes your approach between the three? How are they similar? How are they different? How you approach each of these three?
Yes. So I would say they're all -- I think they're all interrelated, right? You really have to be able to -- in the most simplistic term is kind of the Venn diagram view of the world. The more overlap, the better, right? And that -- I think from our point of view, then is just kind of dimensionalized on multiple levels in terms of what we're doing by ourselves, what we can do in collaboration, right?
We've talked about this in BMS. I mean that interaction, that collaboration, which goes back for literally decades is a good example where sometimes we collaborate, sometimes we compete, sometimes we're collaborating with the competition in terms of, say, some of the early cabo/nivo work. It's all part and parcel with the focus and the priority for us is what's the right science, what's the right biology to kind of embrace and then what are the right clinical work that we need to do to be able to, again, move the needle for patients.
And I think with that focus on -- again, we're not looking at nano niche indications because I think history has shown that -- I mean that can certainly help a small number of patients, but the upside can be limited to a certain degree. So again, we're focused on big indications in both the GU and GI space, renal cancer, colon cancer, prostate cancer, et cetera, where we really think we have the opportunity to do well by patients and also drive value for the company and shareholders.
Yes. And I've seen the collaboration firsthand and I think this is a great part of Exelixis. Anything -- in terms of collaboration, anything that you look for, anything in terms of the benefits that the company has from that? Or when you think to collaborate with other companies, what are some of the things that you're looking to achieve?
Yes. It's always the common language of our -- do we have aligned goals and philosophies around what success looks like, number one? Do we have the right scientific, I would say, both overlap and complementarity that we need to, really, in some ways, synergize what each side can bring to the table and then provide even super additive, if not synergistic value to patients?
So it's that kind of special place where you're kind of working above the fray of the noise that normally happens kind of in the background and able to operate in a way that, again, allows you to move. And I think that a lot of the collaborations that we had in the early days on the discovery side were just fantastic in terms of being able to have a situation where 1 plus 1 was 5, equals 5 as opposed to 2 or 1.5, which is often the case.
And on the clinical side, too, I mean the 9ER study that we did, as I've said previously, it's kind of in the ROI hall of fame in terms of we had cabo and nivo, 2 leading single agents that were actually had initial single-agent top line data literally on the same day. And then from that day on in terms of second-line studies, people ask the question, well, if they work so well by themselves, both have a survival advantage, both with the nivo for patients, what happens when you combine them?
And it was certainly a very rewarding process then to collaborate between the 2 companies, the top KOLs in a way that was really allowed us to move quickly and dramatically and to win on response rate, PFS, overall survival and quality of life together, set us up really well to move -- continue to move cabo up in terms of being a market leader for RCC. So we're super excited about that.
And that -- I think that success, and that comes after the typical kinds of failures that happen in this game. But it certainly builds a level of focus, of resilience of conviction that we've done this, we can do this again and then get out there and make the whole process work from asking the right questions on the discovery side or on the combination side and then doing the right level of clinical work to be able to -- again, to really get over the goal line time and time again.
So done that with cabo. It's a molecule that has, I think, 8 different indications or 8 successful pivotal trials that led to a very broad label. Obviously, it's a commercial success across different indications. We think zanza is probably a better next-gen molecule based upon some of the early data. First trial in third-line plus CRC was successful in overall -- enhancing overall survival. That comes on the back of 4 failed checkpoint-based trials. So different kind of clinical phenotype, if you will, getting a lot of positive feedback in terms of the market potential, and we're under review right now.
So it's one that we're really excited about. And again, that we think really kicks off the opportunity for zanza, which I'm sure we'll talk more about today. But it's indicative of how we think about building a franchise, right? The right combinations, the right indications, the right lines of therapy, really, pushing the needle in terms of where you're in a hypercompetitive space indication-wise versus maybe what's kind of wide open right now and pushing that envelope.
So it's how you expand in a measured fashion and doing that in a way that I think reflects how we view running the business because we run the business like a business. We've been profitable, I think, since 2017 or so. We're very convinced that buying back shares right now makes a lot of sense, and we have for the last several years because we just think we're undervalued based upon how The Street views zanza currently. But we think over time, that will change. We have 7 ongoing or soon-to-start pivotal trials of the first wave. And I think the next wave kind of forming as we speak. So there's lots of moving pieces with zanza following on the success of cabo.
And then the question is what's potentially the third franchise molecule? What's the fourth franchise molecule? Because that's -- in our view, that's how you build really important growth in the story and how you kind of change the vector each time in terms of what growth in terms of impact on patients in terms of revenue, in terms of market cap can be. So that's the focus. Team is -- it's lean and mean, and I'm really excited about where we're at and what our future looks like, and we're just committed to executing every single day.
Absolutely. And on that -- on the point where you ended, so what do you think of how the pipeline is situated for future pan-tumor leadership? Anything in particular you want to highlight, anything you'd like to talk about?
Yes. So we have 4 molecules in the clinic now. We've got a few more on the way. Obviously, zanza is leading the charge. We stopped really investing in cabo per se, and we've talked about that for the last few years now why we're doing that. But we think zanza is the right molecule to put a lot of energy behind right now. And from a pure resource allocation point of view, that gets fed first relative to how we're doing it.
We're -- and we have consistently embraced the idea that if you want to be a leader, if you want to move the needle for patients, you've got to belly up to the table and invest in and run and execute on pivotal trials. That's the only way the p-values that you hope to get are the only way to move the needle and get the attention of regulators and payers and HCPs down the table.
So a lot of companies, certainly in our -- where we were 10 years ago, we were hesitant to do that because it's a big gulp moment in terms of do I really want to spend $100 million, $200 million doing this? We do that readily. Once we've done the analysis of the situation, both clinically and commercially, if it makes sense to us within that analysis and we have the data supporting it, we're -- we understand you've got to be able to put that risk capital to work to be able to generate value for patients.
So we do that readily, and we do that in a way that, again, gives us the conviction that we can do that again and again and again. So -- and it's picking your fights to a certain degree, right? So obviously, we're a leader in renal cancer with cabo. And we certainly plan to try to maintain that with zanza. We've got 3 pivotal trials going right now. And probably, we'll have more on the way in the future.
We think colon cancer is another good example of an indication that is ripe for innovation. And certainly, the STELLAR-303 success really underscores that. We have a trial for called STELLAR-316 looking at really post-adjuvant kind of therapy for high-risk patients based upon the Natera Signatera technology, where you can preselect high-risk patients based upon their MRD status.
Again, there's no standard of care for those patients. They're just kind of -- they get surgery. They get chemo, in either order, depending upon if it's colon or rectal and then they just kind of watch and wait, right? And that's -- if there's a way you can identify, preselect these high-risk patients as has been done recently in, say, bladder with a very well, I think, just elegant technology. It really brings potentially a lot of value to patients.
And 303 and 316 kind of travel together. We're constantly getting talk about one with a cabo and the other one comes up and vice versa. So it really reinforces the idea that that's how you build leadership in a given area in a given franchise, whether it be a molecule or an indication or a modality is you just -- you keep investing in a very thoughtful, pragmatic way. You use data, you use your insights, you certainly -- whatever conviction you have to be able to kind of push that ball, if you will, move that ball downfield in the football analogy. And that's something that we do, I think, really well and have the conviction that more often than not, if we make the right choices and we execute well, we'll be successful.
So -- but the pipeline is full. Early stage, we have 4 compounds in Phase I, Phase Ib, a couple of ADCs, USP1 inhibitor and bispecific XL628 that we're just starting to look at zanza combinations with. So that's super exciting. And looking to do more. We've got a couple of INDs kind of on the way with DLL3 and an oral SSTR2 antagonist. So those should be at the IND stage this year.
And we're looking, I think, pretty aggressively for potentially later-stage assets in the GU, GI space. We've got a very great balance sheet, Again, we're profitable. Lots of cash flow. So we have room to maneuver there as well. So again -- but we're looking at doing the right investments based on the right data, based upon the right view of the commercial opportunities in these indications. And I think more often than not, we're going to be successful.
Yes. Any of those ADCs in particular that you want to highlight or that you heard about?
Yes, I think -- I mean they're both really interesting and there's more on the way. But I think XB371 is a tissue factor targeting ADC with the topo warhead. It's designed kind of de novo to play in the CRC, in the colon cancer space where we want to build. So you can imagine getting to a point where whether we have single agent or we have combinations with zanza, a combination with zanza and a checkpoint, just building off the foundation of 303, and that's how kind of building a franchise in that indication across molecules, in this case, across modalities as well.
So it's that kind of multifactorial view of what's the best way to bring value, additional value, change standard of care for patients. And again, part of it is obviously empirical. You've got to generate data. Part of it is very clear looking at -- if you look at that example of 371, zanza and say, a checkpoint, right, you've got 3 orthogonal MOAs, which arguably kind of at least de facto should have minimal kind of AE overlap liabilities. And the question is, do you have the right -- are you picking the right pathways? Are you picking the right, if you will, warheads or the right agents to be able to bring maximal benefit at the right level of therapeutic index, right?
So it's theoretical. You look at the situation, you look at the genetics, you look at the evolution of the -- of that -- how that indication is actually -- from a standard of care and how it's treated. And then you've got to look downfield 2 years, 5 years, 10 years and say, "okay, how am I going to move the needle in that time frame?" So it's a bit of kind of putting the Carnac hat on and asking some important kind of forward-looking questions.
But we're not doing anything to change standard of care today. It's always what happens 3 years, 5 years down the road because everything is moving so quickly. You've got to almost preselect kind of where you think the bar is going to be and then try to beat that, right? So -- but yes, there's a lot going on, and it's fascinating to watch the technology advancements on the translational side.
Certainly, on the discovery side, we have our own cryo-EM that the structural team is just -- I mean the rapidity and the depth of data we can generate on new areas of research, say, in the RAS space or in the SSTR2 space is just -- it's amazing to be able to have an idea, make a molecule, get some data, solve the structure, say, well, I guess I was wrong on that, but it does bind. It just binds this way or that way, and then you'll be able to modify your thinking and then go forward. So it's a full court press and with multiple inputs from multiple, if you will, perspectives. But I think that's what makes Exelixis so strong is that we can pull all that together with the right team and the right approach and move things forward.
And you've talked a lot about CRC so far in RCC and also neuroendocrine is a focus. And just curious what you're thinking for your SSTR2 and your DLL3. They sound very small cell neuroendocrine type focus. Maybe you could just expand just in general, neuroendocrine, about those targets.
Yes, exactly. So that's -- I mean that's a franchise that we talked about this in December, where we're just starting kind of scraping the surface with cabo based upon the CABINET study. We've got the STELLAR-311 study that's ongoing. We're currently recruiting, looking at zanza compared directly to everolimus, which is standard of care, second line plus, first-line plus in that situation as usually before cabo, the first oral therapy that was used.
So CABINET looked at cabo against placebo in later-line patients. This is going -- kind of going 1 or 2 steps up in terms of line of therapy but also against an active control. So you would imagine if that wins, it really kind of opens up a lot of additional leeway for us in terms of how that might be used, right?
The mainstay of neuroendocrine tumors is really SSAs, somatostatin agonist, right, which are all peptidic and parenterally administered. Having an oral therapy that could displace those being used in the frontline setting is a huge opportunity for patients. These are all subcu injections, big needles, can be painful. To be able to have an oral therapy that they can take once a day at breakfast or at night would certainly simplify -- not only simplify administration, but from a PK/PD point of view, really kind of even things out from the standpoint of getting away from some of the valleys that, in more advanced patients, can certainly cause problems from a symptoms point of view.
So -- but I guess that's a good example of -- it's still early. We're still kind of wrapping up GLP tox and hopefully, we'll be in man later this year. But it kind of -- it really shows to us the important perspective we have from a commercial point of view, with very few biotech companies have unless you've got a big commercial molecule that can inform how you evolve your strategy quickly in terms of asking the right questions about where's the maybe either underappreciated or unexpected opportunity. And then what's the best way to navigate that and what's the best way to use our financial depth to be able to build a leadership position.
So I think that's a good example that it's actually a really big indication. It's just kind of under the radar for a lot of big companies. And it's one that we think we can build. And I think the estimate is that it could double or triple in size over the next 10 years. So we want to be part of that growth because if we're successful in helping that indication grow, then we're -- means we're helping a lot more patients.
And if we can do that with more than one molecule, it's cabo, if it's zanza, if it's the SSTR2 story, if it's DLL3, if we can be part of that and own pieces of that pie as opposed to one pie as it's growing and helping that many more patients, then we can check a lot of boxes in terms of we've helped patients. We've improved standard of care. We're driving value creation, and we can then take that -- take those revenues and reinvest those in R&D and really move the next generation forward because from our point of view, value creation is all about building franchises and building one after another. And 2 is better than 1, 4 is better than 3. I mean the math just kind of gets very, very appealing after a while.
Yes. I mean at the core of Exelixis, I think also RCC is at the core as the starting point. Maybe going back to that, what do you see as key highlights, key next steps as you expand and grow within RCC and sort of to get from where you were?
Yes. No, it's a really interesting kind of look back in terms of where it was back in the early teens. First-gen molecules, second-gen molecules were kind of percolating along. I think we really changed the landscape there by asking some very fundamental questions about tumor biology at the most basic level and simply ask the question with cabo, "can you inhibit the primary driver of tumor angiogenesis and the resistance mechanisms at the same time, okay?" That was a simple hypothesis, right, be able to make the molecules that did that.
As we profiled them further, we learn more about their direct anti-tumor activity. We learn more about their impact on the -- on both sides of the immune system. And in some ways, we ended up with a molecule and a class of molecules that had an impact on literally every cell type in the tumor microenvironment. Part of it on purpose, part of it is kind of by accident. It came along with the right, but I think that serendipity and that empiricism is an important part of the process.
People don't like talking about that, but that's the reality of the situation. You know that from the days, right, in pharma. So then we just went from there, right? And we did a lot of work ourselves, a lot of work in collaboration with other companies and got some great collaborations as part of our CRADA with the NCI. And fast forward, we have the leading -- cabo is the leading TKI for RCC. It's the leading TKI in frontline IO/TKI combinations. It's the leading TKI in second line plus -- leading oral therapy in second-line plus NET because we've been able to generate kind of standard of care moving data and then be able to monetize that and kind of make that happen from the standpoint of our commercial depth and heft.
So that's something that we're focused on. Obviously, zanza, we've got a lot going on there. The 304 trials looking at non-clear cell RCC in combination with nivo. No one has ever done a pivotal trial in that subpopulation of RCC. So we're super excited about that.
We've got a couple of different trials going with Merck now in terms of the zanza, belzutifan combination, looking at post-adjuvant patients as well as second- third-line plus patients in both combination with belzutifan.
And we're very, very focused on being able to come up with approaches for frontline RCC as well. And I think that the learnings from all the different kind of competitive machinations over the last few months has really reinforced in our mind, certainly in my mind, the importance of I think asking the question a little bit differently is can we -- by doing a broad survey clinically, can we find orthogonal MOAs, mechanisms of action, that can give us arguably better activity with zanza in a checkpoint, either as a single-agent modality, so a triplet, or as part of a bispecific kind of like 628, right, where we've got PD-L1 and NKG2A, the natural killer cell ligand to be able to kind of find the right balance of additional potential activity, okay, without having a lot more tox.
Because if you're talking about -- again, we and others together, whole industry-wide effort, we've really moved the needle, right, in terms of patient benefit for RCC, right? And by looking at new MOAs, new ways of approaching the problem and then doing the right combinations. And this is then going to the next level. But you're working at a much higher base than you were before. So you've got to really thread the needle. And whatever you do has to have the tolerability and the activity for going to the next big increment in terms of whether it be PFS and/or OS, right? So it's a heavy lift.
And as you've seen with IO in general, right? I mean these things, there can be a long increment between breakthroughs, right? You have IL-2 and then you 25 years and you have PD-1s and CTLA-4s and now we've waited 15 years. And people are trying a lot of stuff and it's all great science. It just hasn't worked out, right? So every time you improve standard of care, it actually gets more difficult, so -- which is why for us, it's -- I think it's really important that we are committed to our leadership in RCC. We're investing there. We're doing it the right way in terms of sharing the cost, if you will, with our collaborator.
But we're also looking in areas like NET, like CRC and a meningioma, whatever, that kind of spreads the risk and has significant upside all by itself. So again, before the fact -- and we've seen this with cabo, you can design trials that you think are going to work. Most of them do work. Some of them are commercial blockbusters. Others are a little bit less compelling. But doing that all before the fact, there are so many factors that you just can't control for, you've got to have the right mix of trials and combinations and lines of therapy to be able to cover all the bases. And then when you do see breakout data, then you've got to capitalize on that with great speed and great conviction.
Absolutely. I mean you're just hearing you talk about the bar and thinking about this is where KEYTRUDA and KEYTRUDA/pembro, how it evolved going against chemotherapy, with a lower bar. And now as you say, we're waiting -- we waited a long time to see what can now go head-to-head in KEYTRUDA.
And on that point, when you think about the trials you guys are conducting, how do you sort of stack the deck? You've got great data. You're now thinking what trial to do. What do you do? What do you think to really increase your PTS? Nothing has ever de-risked, but just curious about that.
Well, it's a combination of both. And I think we're thinking, learning self-reflecting organization. And I think the part of the charm that we, I think, have been able to execute on is looking at what has worked and what hasn't worked and then ask some of the hard questions about, okay, what have we learned because you can learn a lot more from a failure than you can from a success sometimes, right, if you're not totally myopic, right?
So -- and I think that's where the -- asking the right question around combinations is so important. So we have a Phase II that we talked about, Dana talked about on earnings about a month ago in terms of looking at a second-line maintenance of zanza plus pembro in a squam population post basically chemo, pembro. And I think that's a good example where could we actually improve patient outcomes in the maintenance phase by combining with pembro.
Same thinking goes. We've done a lot of work, say, in prostate cancer with cabo. We had a trial in second-line lung cancer with cabo and atezo. Those have all failed. What have we learned from that? Well, with zanza, maybe we have the opportunity instead of trying to docetaxel head-to-head, which is still used a ton in all kinds of different tumor types because it's really hard to beat. It's truly standard of care.
Can we -- do we have the right molecule with zanza and from an activity tolerability point of view that we can actually combine with docetaxel? And so that doublet against docetaxel could be a really interesting way to go. So that's part of the next wave. And we're doing -- we actually have a trial going right now looking at that combination in later-line prostate cancer to understand tolerability and PK and those kinds of things and initial activity. But you can imagine if we can actually see benefit there so that could apply to prostate cancer, that could apply to second-line non-small cell lung cancer.
That could -- we ask the question, could you combine, say, zanza with standard chemo in frontline CRC. So kind of reinforcing this whole paradigm around building franchises across lines of therapy and like we've done with cabo and RCC. So it's a constant, I think, examination of what's the best place to put our efforts to make our investments based upon the data, based upon our vision for how things will evolve over time.
Yes. Earlier in the conversation, you mentioned how strategy isn't just what you choose to do. It's the things that maybe you don't do, things that you sort of either avoided or didn't dive too deep into. Is there anything that as you reflect on your time that you're running Exelixis, anything that you are maybe happy you didn't wait into, whether you were considering it or not, things that you feel maybe worth it?
Yes. Well, I would say the -- it's a great question. So I'm -- I think I've been in terms of my scientific career, more tend to focus than be broad because I think that's always the best way to marshal the resources you've got the critical thinking, you have access to either internally or externally, KOLs or through collaborations.
I think the focus that we've done has been partly organic, right? We have activity in GU and GI cancer. So let's double down there. We've got a commercial organization that's built to excel in GU and GI. So it makes sense to build in there, right? We've dabbled in other areas with cabo in the past, other molecules in the past as we were signal searching and those did not work out as well as we would have liked for them to we've double down where we're active, where we're successful and it makes a lot of sense.
But I think that one of the most important things we did early on was not looking at heme/onc and saying heme is so competitive. They're so deep there. The combination approach is so successful, really asking the question, what do we have to offer there that could be different and could, again, an improved standard of care. And I think the conclusion that we made was probably not a lot. Let's focus in on solid tumors where it's just a much, much tougher go in terms of both pharmacodynamics, right, in terms of genetics and certainly then in terms of the actual pharmacology you're trying to impart there.
So I think that's the right move. Lots of important work has been done in thoracic oncology and breast cancer, those kinds of things, I don't think we could be as effective as we are in GU and GI if we were more broadly based, right?
So look, we'll double down. always -- we always have the option if our MOAs and our pharmacology overlaps with biology and another tumor type, we can always go there. We're doing that now. And part of it is opportunistic, part of it is mechanistic. So nothing stops us from doing that. But I think to keep everybody focused on what we're trying to do because, I mean, there's literally millions of patients in this subsection that if we're successful, we can bring a lot of value to and can, again, grow the company and build shareholder value with as we go forward. So focus is a good thing for us for sure.
Absolutely. And maybe just thinking forward-looking, what does -- what do you see your success for Exelixis in maybe a 5-year time line? Whatever that metric looks like, what would you sort of look forward and say, if I'm happy with this.
Yes. No, it's a good question. It's something that we think about a lot. I think about success on a log scale, not a linear scale. And that from the standpoint of any kind of quantitative metric, patient numbers of patients you treat, patient years, you can improve upon all that drives revenue, and it's the kind of the big circle one drives the other. But again, I think the multi-franchise pipeline of franchise molecules kind of plays to that theme, right? We want to jump up in half log units as quickly and as often as we can because that's the way you bring value to patients, and that's the way you bring value to shareholders.
The two are intimately connected in a way that one goes with the other. And the value isn't just another molecule, but it's improving standard of care. So for me, again, I'm not an oncologist, I'm a scientist by training, over the years, that's become kind of a very, very clear guide for me. If we're not actively changing standard of care, then we need to ask the question, what are we doing? Why are we doing it? What are we doing? Do we want to invest here or someplace else? Because that's -- ultimately, that's the goal. If we do that well, everything just kind of flows from there.
And that's true, I would say, in general, within the industry, right? You change checkpoints. I mean they dramatically change standard of care. Now it's taken another 15 years to go to the next level, and that's -- but that's the business we're in, right? It's a tough business, right? Anybody who plays in this space can appreciate that on a very -- as I know you can, a very personal level because it's hard. You fail more than you succeed. You understand less than you think the factors at play.
When I was dabbling in antibiotics or antivirals from a pure genetic point of view compared to what's happening with solid tumor oncology where you can have in 1 organ, and this has been proven by kind of autopsy, you can have a liver post-resection that is -- has got different -- 10 different tumors with 10 different genotypes, right? I mean it's just -- it's tough. And you really need to bring every MOA to bear, every approach to bear, sometimes every modality to bear to move the needle. So I think it's with a great -- any success you have to be humble about because it's tough. And that success was hard-earned and maybe a little bit of luck was involved as you go, but you've got to be able to capitalize that and build foundations that you can then build companies and bring more success to patients. Yes, for sure.
And that's wonderful. And we've talked a lot with RCC. You talked about neuroendocrine. Maybe just give a little bit of time for CRC, too, is that when you think of your strategic vision for CRC and the trials and the things that you'd like to do there, anything you'd like to highlight?
Yes. So we talked about that a lot already. I think that certainly having a foundation of success with 303 in a later-line population, checkpoint-based kind of regimen along with zanza, really interesting. Again, that's been an area that's been heavily invested in by a number of companies, all met with lack of success and because it's just a tough place to play. So we're very fortunate to be able to win there. We have some data at ASCO, which I think is going to be pretty interesting around contribution of components that I would refer people to because it really highlights, I think, some of the way we view science in a way that I think is very novel as well.
Yes. So the foundation of success there, can we take the same general approach where we have activity in terms of improving survival with measurable tumors, right? Patients with metastatic disease, as you can see radiographically. And can you go up in the line of therapy to the 316 opportunity where you've got basically no metastatic, no visible imageable metastatic disease, but you have high-risk patients post-surgery and chemo who are bound to progress based upon kind of longitudinal data within 6 or so months, right?
So the question is, will the same MOAs that appear to work in measurable disease work in tumors that you can't -- that micro metastases that you can't visualize radiographically, right? So I think it's a fascinating kind of connection between those 2 ends of the spectrum. The fact that we're -- we had success with zanza checkpoint that I think gives us a lot of confidence using, again, as I mentioned before, using the Natera technology to select the right patients is the way to play the game, right?
You want to -- not everybody needs this. A lot of patients are cured with surgery and chemotherapy. And that's fantastic for them. But those that aren't, we need to get in there. And for whatever reason, genetically, they need an extra boost. And if we pick the right combination and the right kind of details around how that works, can we convert what is a relatively short time period to then kind of real problems in terms of metastatic disease? Can we lengthen that?
So that's a -- look, for me, that's a noble enterprise. And obviously, we're in it to run a business and ultimately drive shareholder value, but there's a lot of patients. There's thousands of patients every year that could benefit from that. And that's a big benefit, both physically and I think about it psychologically. There's no -- I mean, they're just waiting. There's no standard of care for that right now post -- for those high-risk patients, post-surgery and chemotherapy. So to be able to -- if we're successful, have something to offer them, I mean, that's very motivating and inspiring for everybody at the company. So we're serious about this stuff. We understand the stakes that are there for patients, and we're doing everything we can to move the needle quickly and confidently with high quality every single day.
Well, we've talked about several different tumor types, CRC, RCC, neuroendocrine. Is there any other tumor type that you think would be worth highlighting? If not, we can talk about maybe some -- any other modalities that you think haven't talked about enough.
Let's move to the modalities. I think that's actually -- it's a good time. And we talked about ADCs, right? We obviously have a strong small molecule approach, bispecifics. I think one of the things that we've done over the last 2 years is we were traditionally a small molecule-focused shop. And on the restart sort of our discovery efforts understood that the more breadth we could bring into our discovery world from a biologics point of view, the better in terms of covering more MOAs, getting away from potential overlapping toxicities of having small molecules kind of play in the same structural space, if you will.
And that thing has been a real successful operation from the standpoint of -- we haven't invented new technologies, but I think we've aggregated technologies across the board. The execution has been absolutely phenomenal from a target identification to kind of drug elaboration, if you will, optimization, both with bispecifics as well as ADCs, for example. And we've been able to transition that from small scale to at scale for GLP and then GMP applications. So -- and that's all happened in a very seamless focused fashion. And the team is -- it's just first rate, right?
We can go from concept to molecule to assays to scaling up either internally or externally and kind of turn that crank in a really impressive sort of way. So I'm really pleased about that. And it just gives us that much more kind of therapeutic and pharmacological breadth to be able to ask important questions, right? Now unlike a couple of years ago, pre-expanding into these biologics, we were like, okay, where do we -- who do we collaborate with to find this. Now we can say, okay, if we're looking at the biology correctly, we need something here and something here. This is a small molecule. This is an ADC. This is a bispecific. Let's go do it, right?
And we can do that as well as anybody, right? So -- and then the scale up -- I mean, making things on a milligram scale can be easy, making things on a kilogram scale. You got to have the right people and the right opportunity with the right -- really, the right interest and the right vision to be able to get that done in real time. So I've been super pleased how fast we've built that and the expertise is just first rate.
That's amazing. And you talked earlier -- in our last couple of minutes here, you talked earlier about you have great financial position, stock buybacks. I mean we haven't talked too much about the financial commercial side of the company. We're mostly focused on drug development. So maybe just in the last couple of minutes, anything from the commercial side, finance side that you think is important to talk about the strategy and how you execute?
Yes. I would say, at the highest level, it's all integrated. We have one strategy. We have one focus. Obviously, we have different groups and different responsibilities and accountabilities in terms of how that works, but everything works together. And the way we're organized, the way we're co-located, the commercial people, the competitive intelligence people, the discovery people, that leadership operation is talking on an hourly basis, right? And that's the way it has to be, right?
Having people in silos, sitting in their offices, drawing structures and thinking about whatever, just doesn't -- that doesn't work, right? You've got to have the right level of insight. And certainly, whether it be on internal programs, but also looking at external assets, right? We need to have a full view of what the opportunity is. And we're fortunate to have this fully enabled commercial team that has achieved and overachieved and competed with all the big guys all the time, right?
So to be able to have that depth and that breadth and having that mindset that says, a good idea, but a tiny indication or a good idea, but don't forget about this competition and that's a good idea. I mean having that analysis is now just -- it's just kind of -- it happens automatically almost. I don't want to organize it. It just happens when the people are talking and there's the right level of engagement and accountability about making that work.
So in that regard, it's super fun to watch. It's not easy. And sometimes there's just things we don't know, and we have to be able to model effectively and then make -- we're paid to make decisions without having perfect insight into all the different variables, and that's part of the job, too. So -- but I think from a financial point of view, the depth we've got and the modeling capabilities we've got really helps us do that a long way. So great team. Everybody works together really well. I'm super excited about where we're going, and we just need to continue to keep our heads down and just keep cranking, which we do.
Well, that's amazing. I mean this has been a great conversation. I really appreciate the chance to learn from you, and I'm sure everyone else listening has as well. So thank you for sharing your strategy, your future vision and really appreciate your time today.
Fantastic. It's been a great day. I appreciate the invite and looking forward to seeing you again soon.
Absolutely. Thank you, Mike.
Okay. Thank you. All right. Great.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference
Exelixis, Inc. — Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference
Exelixis legt Fokus auf Multi‑Franchise-Strategie: zanza als Hauptwachstumstreiber, Ausbau von Biologika/ADCs und selektive Kooperationen.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Exelixis fokussiert sich auf wenige, große Tumor‑Franchises (Genitourinary, Gastrointestinal) und setzt Ressourcen gezielt auf ein Next‑Gen‑Molekül ("zanza"), um die kommerzielle Führung von cabozantinib zu ergänzen und Standard of Care nachhaltig zu verändern.
🧭 Strategische Highlights
- Franchise‑Strategie: Priorität auf GU/GI-Indikationen (z.B. Nierenzellkarzinom, kolorektales Karzinom, neuroendokrine Tumoren) statt breite Ausdehnung in Hämato‑Onkologie.
- Zanza‑Fokus: Ressourcen werden von cabo (cabozantinib) weg hin zu zanza verlagert; zanza zeigte in frühen Daten Überlebensvorteil in Drittlinie+/CRC und ist laut CEO derzeit unter regulatorischer Prüfung.
- Modalitäten: Ausbau von Biologika, ADCs (z.B. XB371, Tissue‑Factor‑Target, CRC‑Ausrichtung), Bispezifika (XL628) und geplanten INDs für DLL3 und einen oralen SSTR2‑Antagonisten; Kombinationen mit Checkpoint‑Inhibitoren und Partnern (z.B. Merck) sind Kern der Klinikstrategie.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Regulatorischer Status: CEO nennt zanza als "under review" und verweist auf eine erste Erfolgs‑Welle (7 laufende oder bald startende pivotal Trials) — das geht über frühere reine R&D‑Aussagen hinaus.
- Pipeline‑Details: Vier Wirkstoffe klinisch, mehrere INDs noch dieses Jahr erwartet; XB371 als gezieltes ADC‑Programm für CRC; keine neue Finanz‑Guidance genannt.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Relevanz: Für Aktionäre bedeutet das: klares, kapitalallokationsorientiertes Management, starker Fokus auf zanza als nächstem Wachstumstreiber und Diversifikation durch Biologika/ADCs. Kurzfristig hängen Kursreaktion und Wertschöpfung stark an regulatorischen Entscheidungen und den anstehenden pivotalen Readouts; finanziell solide Basis und Aktienrückkäufe mindern kurzfristigen Druck.
Exelixis, Inc. — Stifel 2026 Targeted Oncology Virtual Forum
1. Question Answer
All right. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Stephen Willey, one of the senior biotech analysts here at Stifel. And glad to have with us for the next session, Andrew Peters, who's the Senior Vice President of Strategy and IR at Exelixis. Andrew, thank you for the time. It's always appreciated.
Yes. Glad to be here.
Maybe we can jump right into zanza, which obviously remains the focal point of an expanding development effort across a lot of different tumor types and lines of therapy. So you've got this December PDUFA date that's approaching in third-line colorectal based on the STELLAR-303 data. Just how do you think about the value proposition of this regimen in this setting? And do you think that there's a subset of later-line patients for whom this regimen might be best suited?
Yes. Steve, glad to be here. Just as a reminder, I'll be making forward-looking statements today. So everyone online, please see our disclosures around risks to our business and our regulatory filings.
So it's an interesting place to start, and I'm glad you started kind of the discussion on zanza that way. Highlighting the breadth of what we're doing with zanza is really how we think about the business. Mike talked about it on the last earnings call, and we certainly highlighted at R&D Day, kind of this idea of franchises is really what we're trying to do, the breadth of development with 7 ongoing or planned pivotal studies with zanza.
And certainly, one of those core areas is not only the zanza franchise, but the CRC franchise as well. So the foundation of that is the 303 data with zanza, and it's one that we want to continuously build on. I'm sure we'll get to 316 later, kind of in that post-adjuvant, post-definitive therapy CRC space. But really, this idea that we want to establish a leadership position in CRC and really build from there. And we think that the 303 data certainly enable us to do that.
So on the heels of kind of that positive data that came out at ESMO last year, showed a survival advantage against a very active standard of care. It's something that as we've done market research and are really starting to ramp up a lot of that launch prep, we're finding that the patient community, the physician community is especially excited about having another option.
I certainly wouldn't frame it as we're thinking about it as only targeting a segment of patients. The way we see the landscape is it's actually quite fragmented. I think we've talked about this before. That third line plus CRC is about $1.5 billion addressable kind of market today, with about 1/3 in that sunlight regimen, 1/3 in TKIs and 1/3 kind of a mishmash of a bunch of others. And so our job, and I think something that we've been especially good at in the RCC space, is just focusing and being competitive and trying to gain as much market share across all of those segments as possible.
If you look at our data, kind of the forest plot shows that there's no real patient population that drives that activity. It's actually pretty robust and consistent benefit across all of those different subtypes. And then layering that on top of -- zanza/atezo offers a chemo-free option, an IO-containing option. Those are the sorts of messages that we think are starting to resonate in a lot of the market research that we're doing. And we're certainly excited, if approved, to go out and have those conversations with providers about having another option for their patients.
Okay. One of those subgroups is this non-liver met subgroup. And you've got this prespecified OS analysis for which we're expecting data sometime, I think, the middle of this year. How, if at all, would you expect this data to impact regulatory discussions or labeling discussions? And again, I know this was prespecified as a dual primary endpoint, but you did hit stat sig in the ITT population. So why does this analysis, I guess, even matter to that extent?
Yes. I mean, the simplest answer to the question is the more data, if positive, that we're able to share with providers and patients to kind of complement the story that we've already generated, the better. I mean if we're able -- again, if the data are positive, having a label, say, Kaplan-Meier curve for the ITT, Kaplan-Meier curve for the non-liver met, that just adds to kind of the robustness of that conversation that we can have with providers and patients around this option for patients.
Certainly, as it relates to kind of how the NLM data will impact our ongoing discussions with regulators, we certainly see this as kind of par for the course. This is pretty standard in any ongoing review for the agency to ask for updates to data, especially on something like survival. And so we think that this is just something that will kind of fit in with that normal course of review.
You did highlight that this is part of that dual primary endpoint. Factually speaking, part of the reason that data at ESMO, data midyear is really about kind of the time course of disease for these patients. Patients who have, unfortunately, liver metastases just tend to see events much faster. But this is kind of much more of a standard update than anything.
Okay. Maybe just continuing on zanza for a bit here. So we get a lot of questions around safety tolerability at the 100 mg dose. Just given that if you look at median dose intensity from STELLAR-303 and some of the other Phase II data sets that we've seen, it's kind of a fraction of the specified dose. So can you just talk about the dose optimization work that led to the selection of this dose for this initial suite of Phase III studies?
And then I know that you've talked about other or additional dose optimization efforts that have been initiated to inform dosing in other combo-based trials in earlier lines of therapy. Is there anything you can say about how those additional efforts have kind of informed zanza dose selection for the next suite of trials that you're looking to enroll?
Yes. So again, I think it'd be helpful to kind of set the framework around how we think about just dose in general, dose in 303 and dose for the other studies. So at Exelixis, an incredible amount of work kind of goes into that process. Not only around generating a significant amount of early data, but we have an incredible PK team that does exactly this, focuses on a lot of in-depth modeling around exposure response, understanding tumor sensitivity, line of therapy, combination partners. Those are all of things that really play a role in kind of how we determine dose selection, not only for 303, but other studies as well.
One of the things that we talk about at Exelixis is kind of this cabo lens helps inform everything that we do with the company. And the learnings and kind of the process of development in cabo certainly followed the same path where we started, say, the monotherapy at the higher dose as we moved -- in later lines as we moved into earlier lines of therapy or different cancer types. And certainly in combinations, we kind of evolved that to really focus on clinical benefit risk, tumor sensitivity, combination partner, what the biology really tells us and what the modeling really tells us.
And so we're kind of following that same playbook, so to speak, with zanza. And so we don't necessarily say, okay, there's one dose across all indications. We have a lot of in-depth work that goes into kind of dose selection for each individual study. And we think that, that's kind of the best approach we should take.
One of the dynamics that we talk about a lot is we want to make sure that our job ultimately at the end of the day to create value for all stakeholders in the company is to run successful trials, not just run studies. And so dose selection and optimizing dose for each of those kind of components and incorporating a lot of that exposure response modeling and all of the other things that the PK group does, that all kind of fits into how we think about is this going to be a positive study? Is this a study we want to invest in? And is this study going to have the ability to shift standard of care? Because the only way that we're going to be successful commercially is if we're able to define a new standard of care for patients and help them live longer. And that's certainly kind of what we're aiming to do.
Okay. Kind of another near-term zanza catalyst that we're anticipating is top line data from STELLAR-304, which is in non-clear cell in combo with nivo. So I know that there hasn't really been any prospectively generated data in this setting from a Phase III perspective. But IO/TKI regimens, they're already listed as preferred treatment options in NCCN treatment guidelines. So what kind of commercial opportunity do you see this 304 data unlocking? And how do you think these data will then change the prescribing narrative going forward?
Yes. 304 is an important study for us, and importantly, for patients as well. Candidly, I think as we were starting to strategize around what we wanted to do in RCC, this idea of really no standard of care in non-clear cell honestly surprised me a little bit. The fact that there's never been a large randomized study in this space is somewhat unique in oncology. And it's really a fact of all drugs, all combinations that are approved in RCC have a label for both clear cell and non-clear cell.
And use, as you mentioned, is really driven by kind of guidelines. But again, those guidelines are informed mostly by single-arm, unrandomized kind of Phase I/II type studies, which we all can appreciate the challenges of interpreting that data because so much patient selection can oftentimes go into that. And so from the physician and patient perspective, understanding, well, how does this data set apply to the patient that's in front of me can be challenging.
And so what we wanted to do with 304 was really plant a flag in the ground and say, okay, with Level 1 evidence against an active standard of care, is zanza/nivo able to show a benefit. And that's what we're hoping to read out, looking forward to reading out later this year.
Again, the feedback we've gotten from the RCC community is exactly that, is that they've been waiting for something to help inform a lot of those treatment decisions. Because from their perspective, reading the guidelines, you're basically trying to pick, well, do I trust this small Phase II study or this small Phase II study or this small Phase II study? And all the caveats with cross-trial comparisons, single site versus a few sites, what are the patient characteristics of these? Were they preselected? All of those dynamics are certainly important.
And so 304 offers a chance for us to really define a standard of care. And again, with Level 1 evidence, if positive, hope to move up, kind of become that clear recommended combination.
Okay. Maybe just sticking to RCC. So we just learned about the second Phase III zanza trial that you are running in collaboration with Merck. I think it's LITESPARK-034. We just saw Phase III data from LITESPARK-011, which was generated in pretty much the same kind of patient population. So how do you think 034 creates a second-line foothold for zanza in the context of this 011 data that we saw, I think, at ASCO GU earlier this year?
Yes, ASCO GU. Yes. I mean, I think one of the dynamics that really that informs how we think about zanza development is this idea of cabo is the TKI of the 2020s in RCC. How do we make zanza the TKI of the 2030s in RCC? And certainly, a big part of that, and I'm sure we'll get to it later, is how -- the way patients are treated can evolve over time. And so a lot of that is understanding, okay, let's not run a study for how patients are managed today. Let's run a study for how we think patients will be managed in the future.
So what the LITESPARK-011 data show us is if VEGF/TKI combinations certainly can play a role in the patient's journey with RCC, what we want to define with both 033 and 034 as well as other studies that we're planning with zanza is how can we improve and iterate on that. The totality of the data that's been generated so far across all of these different regimens, all these different combinations, whether it's 005, 011, 012, 022, those inform a lot of those decisions.
And so we ask questions like every patient who's coming in and trying to understand how they're going to be treated, is it better to combine? Is it better to sequence? The dynamic at ASCO GU that came out after that data were presented was, well, if there's no clear survival advantage, based on what we've seen so far, the absolute PFS for, say, a TKI monotherapy, followed by what we've seen, say, with LITESPARK-005 with belzutifan, how does that compare with what the combination does? So it's going to be on us and generating data with LITESPARK-034 to more robustly answer that question. And that's really our goal.
As I mentioned before, our job is to kind of right shift that standard of care. And so the question is, if LITESPARK-011 shows that this combination can have an effect and positive impact on patients, can an optimized TKI like zanza, best-in-class TKI further improve upon that? And then similarly, kind of with 033, as that treatment dynamic changes and more and more patients get treated, say, with adjuvant pembro in frontline, what does that treatment option say should be for patients? So it's kind of that -- what's the expression in hockey, skate where the puck is going. That's kind of how we think about development of zanza in RCC.
Okay. So you mentioned 033, which was the first RCC collaboration that you announced with Merck. Just a couple of questions on that, right, because that's looking at belzutifan and zanza as kind of post-adjuvant IO frontline therapy. So I guess, number one, we know from LITESPARK-022 that belzutifan added to pembro can improve outcomes, right? So I guess first question would be, what is your expectation for belzutifan uptake in adjuvant?
And then the second question is, we've known that adjuvant pembro has been around and available and approved, I think, since '21. And IO/TKI is still considered to be standard of care frontline therapy following pembro in the adjuvant setting, right? Like, that's still the tailwind that you're benefiting from 9ER. So would it be a more, I guess, appropriate comparator arm for this trial? Should it have also included an IO/TKI arm as frontline?
Yes. So there's a couple of different questions there.
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So one of the...
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Yes, always. As a former sell-sider, I can certainly appreciate that. One of the dynamics that we've seen and I think the industry has seen is the challenges kind of, frankly, across tumor type of IO retreatment. And so understanding the actual contribution of that IO piece if you [ perceived ] pembro in the adjuvant space is -- it's not really seen as kind of being -- contributing a lot. So we certainly feel that 033 is well designed to kind of answer that question of if IO retreatment is not really expected to be successful, what should that standard of care be? This is the first study to help answer that question. So we want, again, want to be involved in defining what that is.
Again, this comes back to this dynamic around TKI of the 2020s versus TKI of the 2030s. We see the kind of world of adjuvant checkpoint use only expanding in the future. One of the dynamics that we've seen is now that pembro does have a clear survival advantage, it's driving -- increasing and accelerated adoption. But beyond that, as the number of kind of de novo versus prior diagnoses kind of change as well, we expect that number to increase over time. And so it's this matter of -- if our view is that the number of patients who are treated with pembro and the adjuvant is expected to grow over time, we want to make sure that we're helping to define the answer on kind of what's that standard of care.
As it relates to kind of the adjuvant belz/pem use, our observation has been that kind of that hockey stick acceleration of adoption for pembro in the adjuvant space was really when they saw a survival advantage. Because, again, these early-stage patients, as I mentioned before, it's always going to be about clinical benefit risk. And so when you're adding on an additional mechanism, you generally see additional tox. And understanding, well, if I'm adding on additional tox, what is the actual benefit that I'm getting? Especially with the 5-year survival rates of RCC continuing to improve, especially relative to, say, when cabo was first introduced, understanding the combination versus sequence dynamic is always going to be important. And so that's something to consider, again, as we think about not how are patients treated today, but how will they be treated in 2030 and beyond.
Okay. STELLAR-311. So this trial is evaluating single-agent zanza versus everolimus as first TKI therapy in neuroendocrine tumors. I think unlike the other STELLAR trials, you're characterizing this as a Phase II/III. So is there a formal Phase II portion of this trial? And if so, what is it actually assessing?
So we haven't broken out kind of the specifics around what that Phase II/III gate is. But in general, like all Phase II/III studies, it's a way to be reasonably efficient from a timing perspective to understand is the study likely to be successful, what are some of the metrics that we can take kind of an early look at, and then continue to enroll. It's just a mechanism that we can use to really be efficient, both from a risk perspective, but importantly, from a time perspective, how to kind of get that completed as quickly as possible.
Okay. Maybe the last -- or maybe second to last zanza question. So STELLAR-316, right, this is the trial you referenced earlier where you're looking at zanza and zanza plus PD-1 in early-stage colorectal. It's -- conceptually, I think it's a very interesting study. There's certainly a lot of observational data that's supporting worse outcomes in these MRD-positive patients.
But I guess when we've talked to KOLs about therapeutic intervention in these MRD-positive CRC patients who don't have evidence of clinical progression, the feedback there has been pretty mixed, and maybe that's just a byproduct of some of the historical data that's been generated in that setting to date. But how do you just think about kind of the mixed opinions that seem to be out there around slotting something like zanza into treatment here and whether or not that could have an impact on the pace of enrollment and just how you think about the market opportunity?
Yes. I mean, this is one that I'm particularly excited about. We're particularly excited about it. Again, this is a study where Exelixis is really kind of defining a new standard of care.
When we've done kind of our pretty robust KOL work and really understanding that opportunity, I would frame it a little bit differently. If you look at the data that Natera has generated and published, those Kaplan-Meier curves for kind of that MRD-negative versus MRD-positive are striking. And kind of the current standard from the patient's perspective is watch and wait. These patients who are MRD-positive, ctDNA-positive kind of know that they're an exceptionally high risk of their disease recurring and can't really do anything about it.
What we're offering is a potential intervention where we know that zanza is active in a much later-line population showing a survival advantage. So it's a sensitive tumor type. And then we're offering them either zanza monotherapy, or as we've announced, zanza with pembro. And so offering kind of that opportunity to really right shift again that DFS interval, which is unfortunately very short for these patients, that has the potential to be quite meaningful.
I think you've heard Dana on the last couple of earnings calls talk about our view on potential enrollment being particularly brisk. That's one informed by this high unmet need from a patient's perspective around what do I do if I am kind of ctDNA-positive. But two, operationally, the benefits of working with Natera and working with Merck to kind of help identify those patients and really accelerate operationally what that could do.
And so I'd actually frame it the other way. This is one where we're really excited to enroll. And as we reflect on kind of the 303 data, what we've observed is KOLs who are really excited about 303 start learning about 316 and get even more excited about zanza as a franchise in CRC. And similarly, as those docs who are interested in kind of that 316 post-definitive therapy CRC space, they start to learn about zanza in the later lines. And it's kind of that echo chamber that we're hearing a lot about that really kind of, I think, is getting us excited about what we could do as kind of having a real franchise in colorectal cancer.
Maybe last question here. So the pipeline behind zanza, you've got a few different modalities. There seems to be a bit of a building concentration on biotherapeutics, right? I think you've got ADCs that now represent the majority of these earlier-stage pipeline efforts. Should we expect to learn anything about kind of the 4 assets that are currently in Phase I development? Will we learn anything about those things before the end of this year or maybe first half of next?
Yes. I mean, I think the way that we view it -- and again, as you can appreciate, you've known us for a long time -- we're a little bit atypical for a biotech. One, we're profitable. Our focus, candidly, is on execution. And so we're not going to dribble 10 patients' data here and there to try and raise money or use the stock or anything like that. What we want to do is once we have mature, stable data that reflects this is what the profile is versus what the profile could be, that's when we'll present it.
I think what we've shown ourselves to be really able to do is be -- is to prioritize. And so if any of those early-stage programs aren't going to potentially define a new standard of care, we'll move on to the next thing. We're going to kill things quickly is kind of one of the mantras that we have here, and that's how we can be efficient is just this really stringent prioritization kind of across the board.
And so whether that's moving to the next, seeing us start a pivotal with one of those programs or seeing us cut it, that's the sort of thing that you'll see. And then we'll present when that data really is mature and you guys can get an understanding of -- it's not just a couple of patients here or there. It's really a robust data set to help inform why we're making these investment decisions.
All right. That's all we have for time. Andrew, always appreciate it. Good to see you.
Good to see you.
And thanks for listening, everyone.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Stifel 2026 Targeted Oncology Virtual Forum
Exelixis, Inc. — Stifel 2026 Targeted Oncology Virtual Forum
Exelixis setzt auf "zanza" als Franchise‑Treiber mit mehreren Phase‑III‑Programmen; viele klinische Lesezeichen, aber keine neuen finanziellen Zahlen.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: Zanza (neuer Tyrosinkinase‑Inhibitor, TKI) soll zur Franchise in kolorektalen (CRC) und Nierenzellkarzinomen (RCC) ausgebaut werden, getragen von sieben laufenden/planten Phase‑III‑Studien.
- Strategie: Priorisierung von Studien mit potenziell praxisveränderndem Ergebnis; gezielte Dose‑Optimierung und umfangreiches PK‑Modelling vor jedem Indikationsschritt.
- Operativ: Exelixis betont Profitabilität und disziplinierte Ressourcennutzung — Daten werden bevorzugt erst veröffentlicht, wenn sie "reif" und aussagekräftig sind.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- PDUFA/CRC: STELLAR‑303 hat eine Dezember‑PDUFA; Management sieht zanza/atezo als chemo‑freies, immunonkologisches (IO) Option mit breiter Wirksamkeit.
- RCC‑Programme: LITESPARK‑033/034 (Kooperation mit Merck) und 304 adressieren Post‑Adjuvanz, zweite Linie und non‑clear‑cell‑RCC, mit Ziel, eine neue Standard‑of‑Care‑Position zu erreichen.
- MRD‑Ansatz: STELLAR‑316 testet zanza (mono und mit Pembrolizumab) in minimal residual disease (MRD)/ctDNA‑positiven CRC‑Patienten als Interventionsstrategie nach definitiver Therapie.
- Frühphasen: Mehrheit der frühen Programme sind Biotherapeutika/ADC; strenge Go/No‑Go‑Prüfung, Veröffentlichung nur bei robusten Datensätzen.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Katalysatoren: Management nennt konkrete Timing‑Signale: NLM (non‑liver‑met) OS‑Analyse Mitte Jahr, STELLAR‑304 Readout später in diesem Jahr; keine neue Umsatz‑ oder Guidance‑Angabe.
- Datenstrategie: Keine kurzfristigen Small‑n‑Updates geplant — Fokus auf aussagekräftige, reife Datensätze vor Präsentation.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Dosisfrage: Kritische Nachfragen zur 100 mg‑Dosis von zanza und niedriger medianer Dosisintensität; Management beschreibt umfangreiche PK/Expositions‑Antwort‑Modellierung und indikationsspezifische Dosiswahl.
- Subgruppen/Label: Bedeutung der vordefinierten non‑liver‑met‑OS‑Analyse für Zulassung und Label — Management erwartet, dass positive Zusatzdaten die Kommunikation mit Ärzten stärken, regulatorisch Standard‑Praxis sind.
- Marktposition/RCC: Wie sich neue LITESPARK‑Daten in ein sich wandelndes Behandlungsschema (Sequenz vs. Kombination, Adjuvanz‑Checkpoint‑Nutzung) einfügen; Exelixis will "dort sein, wo der Puck hinfährt".
🔎 Bottom Line
- Relevanz: Mehrere nahe Katalysatoren (PDUFA, OS‑Updates, Readouts) können den Wert deutlich beeinflussen; Erfolg würde Marktanteile in CRC und RCC eröffnen. Risiken sind Zulassung, Verträglichkeit/Dosisfragen und Wettbewerb/Sequenzierungs‑Unklarheiten.
Exelixis, Inc. — RBC Capital Markets Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Our second session, we've got Exelixis, and we're really excited to have them here. They're represented by Andrew Peters, who is the SVP of Strategy. Thanks for being here.
Yes. Thanks for the invite. Glad to be here.
Yes. So a lot going on at the company. I wanted to start maybe on the commercial franchises first. So you guys have given guidance. Cabo had a pretty solid quarter. So maybe at a high level, I mean, how are you thinking about the balance of the year, the future trajectory this year for cabo across its existing indications?
Yes. Happy to get into that, I guess, before answering, I want to make sure that everyone understands going to be making forward-looking statements today. So please see our relevant disclosures in our regulatory filings. Yes. So as you said, kind of our guide reflects continued growth for the cabo franchise. Kind of specifically where that's going to come from, I think it's really about our organization, our company continuing to be laser-focused on cabo, both on the base business as well as the NET launch. It's one of the things that we've done well historically, and it's something that we want to continue to do and make sure that we're not taking our eye off the ball.
We've talked about kind of over the last several years, continuing to see market share gains, not only in RCC and in particular, frontline RCC. But now as we're kind of launching into that NET segment, really driving that NPS, which from our perspective, is a pretty good forward-looking indicator. As P.J. talked about on the earnings call, highest NPS we've ever had during the quarter. And so it's that laser focus on additional market share, finding those patients as we've now kind of expanded our commercial footprint to focus not only on the NET launch and community side, but really lay the groundwork ahead of potential zanza launch as well. So it's really kind of that singular focus on making sure that we're going out every day and talking about cabo, talking about the data and that, again, driving market share.
Got it. Maybe just to dive in a little deeper on that. There's obviously 2 major parts that we as investors have been focusing on the RCC side and the NET side. Just on RCC, I mean, there's been some competitive data, particularly in HIF-2. I guess how are you thinking about maybe the balance between first line and growth you have there versus maybe competitive pressures in the second line and how you envision the trajectory?
Yes. So I mean, it's sort of the obvious that oncology is competitive, has always been competitive, will always be competitive. And that's what we do every day as we kind of go out and fight to either develop new therapies to establish standard of care or really ensure that drugs like cabo are able to be used in the largest number of patients possible. So as it relates to the HIF space, obviously, this is an evolving dynamic with the recent LITESPARK-012 data as well as our own initiations of the 033 and 034 space. So it's certainly a mechanism that we're paying a lot of attention to.
As it relates to kind of this dynamic around frontline, second-line use, we've seen a lot of speculation that if len/bel does get adoption, say, from LITESPARK-011 in the second line, does that drive incremental use for cabo in the first line? That certainly would be an outcome that we'd be okay with given kind of the relative duration dynamics between those. But I think there's still kind of a lot of additional information that needs to come out around just the -- between LITESPARK-05, 011, 012, 022, it's just a continuously evolving space. And so one we're obviously paying close attention to. But right now, cabo is the #1 IO/TKI. It's the #1 IO, and we want to do everything we can to make sure that, that dynamic continues in the future.
Got it. And the other side of the equation is the NET growth. And we've done a fair amount of work here as well and found pretty high levels of prescriber enthusiasm. I think on your recent call, you guys mentioned the #1 prescribed oral agent in second line plus NET. So I guess how do you think about how much more growth there is in NET? So you guys recently had the sales force expansion included team moving in that space as well. So I guess what are you hearing on the ground?
Yes. So again, I think we'd agree with your characterization around kind of that level of enthusiasm. We certainly saw a lot of adoption kind of right out of the gate in the academic space, just given the strength of the CABINET data. But again, as we've talked about historically with our success in RCC, it's really about going in and driving market share gains. And if you think about, say, NET, along with RCC, it's not only about penetrating that academic kind of KOL sphere, but then going into that community space as well where the vast majority of patients are actually treated.
And so what the sales force upsizing allows us to do is kind of do both, continue to kind of really hit hard and kind of hammer home the message around cabo's strength and really the benefit for patients here, but also educate those kind of community -- more community-based docs who may not see that same kind of volume either of RCC patients or NET patients. So it's kind of expanding that to drive additional share. We're now kind of a year into the launch, but one of the dynamics with NET is just understanding that it's a relatively indolent disease. So there's always that NRx/TRx dynamic that's going to start to happen as well, where you're stacking patients not only with new patients, but refills and kind of that's something that we're going to continue to look for as well. And I think our guidance, which reflects growth not only in the RCC space, but NET as well kind of takes all of that into consideration.
Got it. I want to move on to zanza and some of the pipeline updates there. But since we're on the topic of NET, I just wanted to first touch on 311. I guess, how you're thinking about that study, the differentiation that zanza might provide both in the paradigm and which is going to fall in NET as well as how that handoff might work between cabo and zanza in the future?
Yes. So I think it's a dynamic that's really going to go into kind of 2 key areas. One is just the uniqueness or kind of differences between cabo and zanza and kind of the more user-friendly, shorter half-life, potentially more tolerable, all the things that we've started to see earlier on and then just the differences between 311 and CABINET. So CABINET relatively later line population, placebo-controlled reflecting that dynamic versus 311, where it's really kind of defining or hoping to answer the question, what should be that first oral option.
And so what that means from a practical perspective is it's an earlier population, and it's also head-to-head against kind of the current standard of care in everolimus. And so again, it's going to come down to levels of evidence if we're able to show that zanza is statistically better than kind of the current standard against an active comparator. We think that, that's a really powerful message that in the future, our reps will be able to go out and market to versus CABINET, which again, it is really rare in this business to see HRs with a 0.2 and 0.3 in front of it. But again, for the most part, that was also a relatively later line population for a lot of those, if you look at kind of the breadth of that study.
The nearest-term opportunity for zanza is obviously from 303 and CRC. So I want to touch on the commercial there as well. But first, there's also going to be a potential data update in the NLM population. I guess, how are you thinking about what you'd like to see there? And maybe what success in NLMs might mean more broadly for the CRC opportunity?
Yes. So again, there's a couple of dynamics there. On the success side, statement of the obvious p-values. That's really kind of the bread and butter of the industry and what's what allows our sales force to go out and really hammer that message home that zanza/atezo should be the new standard of care for these later-line colorectal patients. In terms of does it matter? Obviously, the ITT population, which read out last year and has the PDUFA date in December is inclusive of both patients with liver mets and non-liver mets.
But again, kind of the best case scenario, so to speak, is really a data set that enables our commercial organization to go out and have conversations with physicians and prescribers to really emphasize and reemphasize that dynamic around why the combination should be kind of the standard for patients what the inclusion of an IO potentially means from the patient's perspective and really just why we think the data are starting to resonate kind of as we do these kind of market research and KOL checks, a lot of those messages that are starting to come out. So the non-liver met readout, certainly looking forward to it and hoping to show as strong a data as possible. But just again, as a reminder, kind of that ITT population is really inclusive of all patients.
Appreciate there might not be a lot you can say on the next part of this. But as you mentioned the PDUFA as you guys move towards that date. I mean, anything to note on the regulatory interactions?
Yes. I mean other than we have a great relationship with the agency. From our perspective, the review and the filing has kind of gone as well as we could hope. It's one of those things that we just -- this isn't our first rodeo, so to speak, on the regulatory.
On FDA, the FDA is it?
Yes. So it's a collab that we have that experience in kind of those existing relationships. And it's been a great collegial collaborative process so far.
Great. And then as we look towards, I guess, December and potentially starting that launch, the data you've shown suggested benefits broadly for CRC patients. And your strategy, as you mentioned, has been fight for every patient. So is the initial push going to be broad? Is it going to be focused on both community academic? I guess how do you think about the initial stages of that launch and where you're going to position the drug?
Yes. I mean kind of as we've shown at RCC, going out and competing commercially is something that we do especially well. And it's really going to be about kind of targeting all of those populations, fighting for every patient, fighting for every market share point is something that we want to do. As I mentioned, kind of those dynamics around the messaging that's really resonating with patients. It's potentially the first IO that's going to be available to these patients is something that we continuously hear, but also kind of that chemo-free dynamic as well as you think about the patient's journey from diagnosis towards that treatment decision in kind of the third-line space, functionally, they'll have been on chemo that entire time.
So understanding a IO-containing chemo-free regimen that has a clear survival advantage over a prior standard of care really does resonate. Then you also understand, say, relative differences between our data and as you mentioned, kind of this robust benefit across all prior subtypes, whereas if you look at, say, some competitor data, that same dynamic around something like prior Avastin use or prior bev use and the differences kind of in efficacy there. That's something that I think given how patients are treated in the U.S. could be especially relevant.
Got it. And just to remind everyone, the sales force there is largely in place so you can it's right.
Yes. So I think, again, kind of what we've talked about as a key part of the sales force expansion that we completed last quarter was not only kind of to continue to accelerate that net launch, but also lay the foundation for zanza potential approval later this year.
Got it. You guys have talked about how this could be potentially a $1.5 billion market opportunity. As investors start doing more work on the launch? I mean, are there any other metrics that you'd point to, any other launches that we should think about to better understand how the shape of zanza and CRC could look?
Yes. I mean I think the best way to think about CRC is kind of that $1.5 billion opportunity when you apply kind of contemporaneous pricing and duration and all of that is really a reasonably fragmented market, and that's in part driven by this academic versus KOL dynamic, which is probably more prevalent in CRC than some other tumor types, but it's kind of 1/3, 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 roughly that sunlight regimen, 1/3 kind of TKIs and then 1/3 hodgepodge of chemo-type options. And so our goal, our mission, our singular focus, again, is to make sure that we're taking as much share from each of those 3 buckets as we can. And so can't and won't be able to give guidance on what that trajectory looks like other than it's going to be our job every day to kind of come in and drive that adoption.
Got it. I wanted to pivot towards zanza in RCC and non-clear cell as well with the STELLAR-304 trial. We're looking for data from that this year. I guess, can you talk about, given that there's no approved -- formally no approved treatment options in this setting, specifically for this, what -- you're going to tell me p-values, but what looks like -- like what a win for you guys that can help you get competitive, move into this underserved patient population? I guess how are you thinking about that?
I mean, I don't want to say it again, but I think that's the honest answer is great data. P-values, one of the things that's driven success in for cabo and RCC and why it's the #1 IO/TKI is that kind of PFS, response rate, survival, all of those improvements really resonate with patients and physicians. And so it really comes down to kind of what the existing dynamic is in that kind of non-clear cell space and what we're hoping to achieve there. And it's this relatively unique aspect of the non-clear cell segment where there's really no data kind of across the board.
And so we were having a conversation with an investor earlier and adoption is really driven somewhat by inference from the clear cell space and then as well as guideline-driven recommendations based on some really sparse data sets, single-arm unrandomized data and potentially selected patient populations. So it can be really hard to kind of understand, well, how is my patient going to respond to individual therapy or combination X. What this study does is it provides kind of robust data really to answer that question. And so that exact dynamic is actually something that I think we've heard continuously from physicians that they're really looking forward to because we're really the leaders here in defining how patients should get treated.
And how much is non-clear cell is more of a foothold for zanza in the space initially versus a large opportunity in and of itself it's 20% and cabo is a great drug as well as you know.
Yes. I mean I think 20% of a large market is still relatively sizable. And so I don't want to underplay that dynamic. But we'd certainly agree that as we think about zanza going forward, one of the things that we often talk about in the way we think about development is cabo has been the TKI and RCC of the 2020s, zanza is going to be the TKI and RCC of the 2030s. It's not only about the non-clear cell segment, but how are we approaching kind of that clear cell space as well with 033, now 034 and then kind of the next steps, the next wave of investment, so to speak, to continue to build that out. And so that's one of the kind of overarching themes for us is that 2020s to 2030s dynamic for zanza and making sure that we're covering all the bases, so to speak, not only in non-clear cell, but post adjuvant frontline, de novo frontline and then kind of that second line plus segment. And so we can make sure that as patients are treated differently now than they will be in the future, we want to make sure that zanza is a central part of that.
Yes. And you guys clearly have a leadership position in RCC. And maybe going back to this HIF discussion, there's a number of trials that is participating in with these HIF targeting agents. So are we viewing it too much through a competitive lens where really uptake growth of these agents is going to be a positive for zanza given the potential combination approach here?
Yes. I mean it's -- again, it's an interesting and relatively unique dynamic where we're now collaborating with functionally our biggest competitor. And we love working with Merck. We announced another clinical collaboration with them this morning for the 316 study. So it's a relationship that I think reflects not only our confidence in the uniqueness of zanza, but that dynamic around understanding if we fast forward the clock 5 years or so, how are patients going to be treated. Our job as drug developers is really to define new standards of care for patients and really ask the question, the way we drive value for patients, for all stakeholders, for shareholders is really if we can define a new standard of care, if we can help patients live longer, that translates to higher revenue, kind of more value, all of that dynamic.
And so we think that the combination of a HIF inhibitor like belz and zanza plays well together and importantly, has the potential to answer really important questions from a clinical perspective, such as if more and more patients will get pembro on the adjuvant side, what should they get if their cancer returns. Again, we're going to be the first to define that answer. Similarly, kind of as adoption of all of these different agents kind of changes in the future, what should be that kind of second-line plus segment as well. So again, that zanza/belz combination is something that we're really excited about.
So 033, 034 and then kind of, I'd say, the last piece is stay tuned for that next wave. You talked about we're the leaders in RCC -- we want to continue to be the leaders in RCC. We're going to invest there. But importantly, we're going to invest there smartly. I think the lessons not only from our own 313 study, but the recent LITESPARK-012 study kind of can certainly help inform what is it going to take to be successful there, orthogonal combinations of orthogonal mechanisms and smart trial design is going to be kind of central to that.
You alluded to 316 earlier. So I wanted to touch on that. It's an adjuvant study in MRD-positive patients. I guess the focus here right now is on execution as you guys work to ramp that up. I guess, can you talk about that, how quickly you can get that running? Obviously, there's some unique approaches to that study, looking at minimum residual disease, the Natera collaboration, Umbrella and Merck. So just how should we think about time lines there and how quickly we can start layering on the zanza opportunity?
Yes. I mean I think this is a study that we're particularly proud of because, again, we're involved in defining a new way for patients to get treated. As the recent IMvigor approval will show, this is an approach that's really cutting edge and offers an opportunity for patients to really define kind of a new journey for them. Right now, in CRC, unfortunately, there's this -- the Signatera test can help you define based on ctDNA positivity or negativity, how your treatment journey will likely go. If you look at the data, the separation of those curves between ctDNA positive and negative is really striking. And it shows that, unfortunately, for that kind of 15%, 20% or so of patients, there is a really high degree of relapse.
And unfortunately, right now, kind of the current standard is watch and wait. And so from the patient's perspective, that can be particularly challenging. It's coming in waking up every day and understanding is the tumor going to come back. What we're now offering is kind of that question of either zanza alone or zanza in combination with KEYTRUDA, can that push out that DFS interval that unfortunately, for these ctDNA-positive patients is relatively short over 6 months or so. And so that dynamic, along with working with Natera to help operationalize the study is something that I think we can build on because these are patients with a high unmet need. They're being identified literally every day. And so that operational advantage from a kind of clinical trial execution perspective is something that we think we can accelerate.
Got it. Unfortunately, we're out of time. There's so much at the company to talk about. You didn't touch on prostate, lung, early-stage pipeline, business development, all else that's going on. So thanks for being here again.
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Exelixis, Inc. — RBC Capital Markets Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Exelixis, Inc. — RBC Capital Markets Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Exelixis setzt auf weiteres cabo‑Wachstum, bereitet zanza‑Starts in CRC/RCC vor und betont Pipeline‑Kollaborationen zur Risikostreuung.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
Exelixis fokussiert die Kommerzialisierung von cabo (Cabozantinib) zur Stabilisierung und Expansion in RCC und NET (neuroendokrine Tumore). Parallel wird zanza (investigatives orales TKI) als nächster Wachstumshebel vorbereitet, mit möglicher CRC‑Zulassung und aktiven Programmen in verschiedenen RCC‑Settings. Kooperationen mit Merck und Natera sollen Entwicklung und Marktvorbereitung beschleunigen.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Kommerz‑Fokus: Sales‑Force‑Aufbau zielt auf Community‑ und Akademie‑Penetration zur Skalierung von cabo‑Umsatz und NET‑Launch.
- zanza‑Programme: Konkrete Studien: 303 (CRC, PDUFA‑Datum im Blick), 311 (NET, Kopf‑an‑Kopf vs. Everolimus) sowie STELLAR‑304 und 033/034 in RCC zur Positionierung über das Jahrzehnt.
- Kollaborationen: Partnerschaften (Merck für Adjuvanz/316, Natera für ctDNA‑MRD) dienen schnellerer Rekrutierung, Kombinationsfragen und regulatorischem Dialog.
🆕 Neue Informationen
Keine fundamentalen Guidance‑Änderungen, aber frische Farbe: Angekündigte Kooperation für Studie 316 (adjuvant, MRD‑positiv) und bestätigte operative Vorbereitung des CRC‑Launches; positive, kollegiale FDA‑Interaktion und Sales‑Force‑Standby für schnellen Marktstart.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- HIF‑Wettbewerb: Wie beeinflussen HIF‑2‑Daten (LITESPARK) cabo/zanza? Management sieht Wettbewerb und Kooperationen als gleichzeitig möglich und beobachtet Mechanismen genau.
- NET‑Upside: Wie groß ist weiteres Wachstum? Antwort: hoher Arztenthusiasmus, Upsizing der Außendienstmannschaft soll Community‑Penetration und Refills (NRx/TRx‑Dynamik) bringen.
- zanza‑Readouts & Regulierung: Erwartungen an 311/303/304 und PDUFA; Management nennt P‑Werte als entscheidend, vermeidet konkrete Prognosen und betont Execution.
📌 Bottom Line
Kurzfristig trägt cabo weiter zur Ertragsbasis; zanza ist das optionale Upside mit klarer kommerzieller Vorbereitung (CRC‑PDUFA, RCC‑Programme). Schlüsselrisiken bleiben Studien‑/Zulassungs‑readouts und Wettbewerbsdynamik; Erfolg hängt jetzt vor allem von Trial‑Resultaten und Verkaufsexecution ab.
Exelixis, Inc. — Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
My name is Jason Gerberry. I cover pharma and biotech at BofA, and I'm pleased to be introducing Exelixis and CEO, Mike Morrissey. So Mike, thanks again for joining us.
Great to be here. Nice to see you.
So hot off 1Q and another announced share buyback. I figured I'd start with just a couple of questions on capital allocation before we go into kind of program-specific questions.
So maybe just to start, as we think about capital allocation priorities longer term, beyond this year, how are you guys thinking about kind of returning capital to shareholders versus like managing the next 4 years of cabo exclusivity and then the investments that you're making in zanza? Are there any specific, I guess, pivot points at all that you could see where, hey, maybe we want to invest more in zanza or some early-stage assets that look particularly promising and you step off the gas a little bit from a share buyback perspective? Just trying to get a sense of the toggles there beyond the share.
Yes, that's great. I'll probably spend the next 28 minutes talking about that one topic, and maybe we will. So let me just say great to be here. Thanks again for the invite. It's always great to be in Vegas, talking with the BAML team and all the investors that come.
Before I begin, I'll just remind you that I'll be making forward-looking statements today. So please see our SEC filings for a description of the risks that we face in our business.
So let's talk about capital allocation in the context of how we view the business, how we run the business, how we see it, how we've seen it in the past and how we're going forward in terms of some of the themes that we've talked about a lot in the last year. Certainly highlighted at our R&D Day in December around how we view building value for patients and shareholders, and that's through building franchise molecules that can improve standard of care for patients, and by doing that, drive good value returns for shareholders.
So our view has been to run the business very efficiently and to -- a keyword is to prioritize how we do everything in discovery, in development in the commercial world to make the right set of priorities based upon data and based upon how we see the landscape evolving, how we see early data, how we see the competitor data flow, as well as movement to be able to maximize our chance of success. Again, for patients, improving standard of care, and then having that then drive shareholder value appreciation.
In terms of capital allocation, it's not one size fits all. There's not one lane that we look at in terms of temporal terms, sequential terms. We've been profitable on an annual basis since
[Technical Difficulty]
Last one on just non-clear cell. Is PFS delta separation enough? Do you need meaningful OS separation to drive these recommendations to drive the clinical success in non-clear cell?
Yes. Look, statement of the obvious, it's always good to have an overall survival signal in your label, right, in terms of marketing. I mean, that was the special sauce, if you will, with the first approval we got with METEOR, right, was we had survival when no one else didn't, and it would really help us differentiate. So survival, I'm not sure you need it for approval, but in terms of building a winning commercial position, survival really helps, obviously.
Yes. Okay. Fair enough. And then your clear cell strategy, and I guess, just your outlook, right, in lieu of the LITESPARK-011, maybe it's hard to answer this question without seeing detailed data, but just how you see the read across to the ongoing frontline studies? So you've got LITESPARK-033, 034, I guess that's the second-line study. But just with respect to the ability to generate practice-changing data with like a zanza/welireg combination given overlap in the combination mechanisms?
Well, I think that's one approach that we're taking. And I think that's juxtaposed with what we're looking at relative to first line, where we've talked about, I think, pretty clearly that we're looking for combination opportunities with orthogonal MOAs.
So before the fact, you've got hypotheses and you have to test those hypotheses, right? And we're doing that, say, with zanza/belz in a couple of different trials. We're talking to a lot of people and are in pretty advanced discussions now around looking at the first-line de novo metastatic population opportunity with zanza, plus/minus a checkpoint, plus a potentially orthogonal mechanism that doesn't have the same overlap with either one of those. That gives you more room to play on the upside for efficacy and potentially minimize the downside on safety tolerability.
So I think that's a really important component here, obviously, working in the same pathway. And there's examples of that working well sometimes, other times not within oncology, but it's a fine balance. You really have to thread the needle in terms of efficacy and safety, right?
So I think our view -- and we certainly have some experience here with with COSMIC-313 -- is that you've got to pick your combination partners with care. And we're doing a very -- we've done a very careful survey and know the space really well, looking at a variety of potentially bispecifics or add-ons to a zanza checkpoint combination that we think could give us some really interesting opportunities in that frontline de novo metastatic space.
So -- but again, we look at this as part of our, again, aspirational vision to take the success that cabo had in the 20s and translate that to a much larger scale for zanza in the 30s. So we've got some time to navigate all that and be able to figure that out and get that going and get that done. So I'm excited about that for sure.
One thing that your commercial org has done really well, like when you roll out NET is you have physicians that are highly familiar with CABOMETYX. And so they're maybe more inclined to be prescribers in the neuroendocrine tumor setting. As we think ahead to the CRC launch, you've expanded the sales force in the GI setting. So can you talk about the ability to kind of leverage that competency in perhaps a newer subset of oncology?
Yes. Well, certainly, the part of the term of cabo is that we've had such broad success in the GU space that, again, in the community setting where the HCPs are much more generalist in terms of what they see in terms of patient tumor types, they have the ability to mix and match there pretty readily. And so using that to then build off of zanza, certainly in colon is a really, really important part of that, right?
So -- and we're building that awareness, and we're building that, I would say, that information. The good news about building out the GI team, and to a certain degree, the GU team as well over years now is that by location and by therapeutic area overlap, most of our reps have experience, say, at Genentech within the oncology setting with Avastin, with [ Colin ], with other tumor types. So we have a very deep knowledge of that commercial space from a sales and marketing point of view. And I think that depth will play off dramatically in terms of a CRC launch, both for 303, if that happens in the near term.
And then the 303 and 316 play together really well. I like that idea of doubling down in these indications, again, building franchises along that dimension of tumor types, multiple lines, multiple shots on goal, potentially combination partners. So it just gives you much more reach there as well.
Okay. So it sounds like you've mentioned community a couple of times with respect to CRC. I would think third line would have been maybe more academic-focused because it's a later-line patient, but maybe I'm wrong. Do you see this more as a community?
It's really a community setting. Yes.
Okay.
Yes. And this is why it's so important for us to really make sure that we've got that covered on the GI side going into that. Yes, for sure.
So I would say your sales force probably plays pretty significantly in the community setting.
We do well in both areas extremely well, right, for sure.
Okay. STELLAR-316, maybe if you can just talk a little bit about like the rationale for that study and what what data points you saw, what really inspired the decision to go after that market opportunity that can really like expand?
Yes. It's a really exciting approach and one that -- as I said before, 303 and 316, they just play together really well. So we're talking to KOLs about one, and they bring up the other one and vice versa, right? So it just reinforces our commitment to GI oncology, to all lines, all opportunities within CRC.
The high-risk post-adjuvant population is truly high risk. Those patients can progress within 5, 6 months of their last round of adjuvant chemotherapy. So they're -- and they're in a tough spot because there's nothing really approved for them besides basically nothing, but they can go back on more chemo or go on to a clinical trial, but all that's kind of tenuous, right?
So we saw that as a very important first step. The Natera technology, we think, works extremely well. The application to bladder with IMvigor just highlights the opportunity there where atezolizumab was shown to be successful at improving both DFS and overall survival with a selection process that was driven by the MRD positivity. So it's a very good way to find patients who are at risk, select them, if you will, and study them as their own little group, or in this case, big group, and then go forward and run the trial.
So we're very excited about that. The good news in terms of operationalizing a trial like that is that they have such a deep level of experience and data around both institutions and investigators that use that technology for late lines -- for post-adjuvant CRC that -- it makes site selection and investigator kind of recruitment very, very straightforward.
So we think this is a trial that we could get up quickly, run fast. We're going to enroll it only in the U.S. because that's where that technology is used. It will be a 3-arm study. It will be zanza monotherapy, zanza plus a checkpoint inhibitor that we'll talk about later versus the best supportive care. So it will be a very straightforward trial using, again, MRD positivity as the selection criteria for getting into the trial.
How many cycles of zanza plus PD-1 are you testing?
It's not limited.
Not limited. Okay. And the motivating force here, was this more the ALTAIR study, which looked at Lonsurf and ctDNA-positive in CRC setting or zanza PD-1 data in metastatic setting and seeing that synergistic benefit?
Yes, it was more of the latter. Certainly, some of the earlier data from the competition was enlightening. It wasn't that helpful because it was just such a complicated, kind of convoluted study.
I think the best way to frame the logic -- and we're almost done here, but I'll just wrap it up like this -- is if zanza plus a checkpoint was effective at improving survival for patients with radiographic tumor, a large enough tumor mass where you could see it on an MRI or CT scan. Then going after micrometastases with the same approach was a pretty good bet, right, from the standpoint of being able to go after the same mechanisms that are driving established tumors, in this case, trying to block micrometastases from forming, right?
So the logic is kind of -- it's kind of a no-brainer. Begs the question, we've got survival from 303, which supports that. And we're super excited about being able to get that going very, very soon.
All right. Great. Well, we're out of time. So thank you, Mike for joining us.
You bet. Thank you.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Exelixis, Inc. — Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Exelixis betont flexible Kapitalallokation zugunsten von Sharebuybacks und gezielten Investitionen in zanidatamab (zanza) mit Fokus auf CRC-Expansion.
Fokus auf Kapitalprioritäten, Kombinationsstrategien und ein MRD‑gesteuertes STELLAR‑316‑Programm.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Strategie: Fokus auf Aufbau von Franchise‑Molekülen; zanza soll cabo‑Erfolge auf größere Indikationen (vor allem Kolorektales Karzinom) übertragen.
- Kapital: Weiterhin Share‑Buybacks, aber Bereitschaft, bei überzeugenden Daten in zanza oder frühe Assets mehr zu investieren; keine starren Regeln genannt.
- Kommerz: Ausbau der Gastrointestinal‑(GI)‑Vertriebsstruktur, um CRC‑Launch in Community‑Settings zu unterstützen.
🔥 Strategische Highlights
- Kapitalallokation: Management betont effizienten Betrieb; Entscheidungen werden datengetrieben getroffen, mögliche Pivot‑Punkte bei überzeugenden klinischen Signalen.
- Kombinationen: Vorrang für Kombinationen mit orthogonalen Wirkmechanismen (kein redundanter Wirkpfad); sorgfältige Partnerauswahl nach COSMIC‑313‑Erfahrung.
- STELLAR‑316: MRD‑ (minimal residual disease) gesteuertes, dreigleisiges US‑Studienprogramm (zanza mono, zanza+Checkpoint, Best Supportive Care) zur Post‑Adjuvanz in CRC.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Studien‑Design: STELLAR‑316 wird US‑exklusiv, nutzt Natera‑ctDNA für Patientenauswahl und soll schnell rekrutierbar sein; kein Zyklenlimit bei zanza+PD‑1.
- Keine Guidance‑Änderung: Keine finanziellen Guidance‑Updates oder konkrete Zahlen zur Buyback‑Skala im Gespräch genannt.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Kapital‑Toggles: Analysten fragten nach klaren Kriterien, wann Buybacks zugunsten R&D zurückgefahren werden — Management blieb qualitativ und nannte keine Schwellenwerte.
- Non‑clear‑cell‑RCC: Frage zu Wirksamkeitsmaßen: Management sagt, Progressionsfreiheits‑Vorteil (PFS) hilft, aber ein Gesamtüberlebens‑(OS)‑Signal ist stark für kommerzielle Differenzierung.
- CRC‑Rollout: Diskussion über Community‑vs‑Akademie‑Fokus; Management sieht CRC vor allem in Community‑Setting und setzt auf erfahrene GI‑Vertriebsteams.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikationen: Exelixis positioniert zanza als nächsten Wachstumstreiber und bleibt beim Aktienrückkauf, behält aber Flexibilität für datengetriebene Investments; kurzfristig sind MRD‑getriebene STELLAR‑316 und Ergebnisse aus 303/andere zanza‑Studien die wichtigsten Katalysatoren, während Kapitalallokations‑Details und kommerzielle Skalierbarkeit weiterhin Unsicherheiten bleiben.
Exelixis, Inc. — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Exelixis First Quarter and Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. My name is Sherry, and I'll be your operator for today. As a reminder, this call is being recorded for replay purposes.
I would now like to turn the call over to your host for today, Mr. Andrew Peters, Senior Vice President of Strategy and Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Thank you, Sherry, and thank you all for joining us for the Exelixis First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining me on today's call are Mike Morrissey, our President and CEO; and Chris Senner, our Chief Financial Officer; Dana Aftab, our Executive Vice President of Research and Development; and P.J. Haley, our Executive Vice President of Commercial, who will review our progress for the first quarter 2026 and ended March 31, 2026.
During the call today, we will refer to financial measures not calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles. Please refer to today's press release, which is posted on our website for an explanation of our reasons for using such non-GAAP measures as well as tables deriving these measures from our GAAP results. During the course of this presentation, we will be making forward-looking statements regarding future events and the future performance of the company. This includes statements about possible developments regarding discovery, product development, regulatory, commercial, financial and strategic matters, potential growth opportunities and government drug pricing policies and initiatives.
Actual events or results could, of course, differ materially. We refer you to the documents we file from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which under the heading Risk Factors, identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed by the company verbally and in writing today, including, without limitation, risks and uncertainties related to product commercial success, market competition, regulatory review and approval processes, conducting clinical trials, compliance with applicable regulatory requirements, our dependence on collaboration partners and the level of cost associated with discovery, product development, business development and commercialization activities.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.
All right. Thank you, Andrew, and thanks to everyone for joining us on the call today. Exelixis is off to a strong start in 2026 and with meaningful progress across our discovery, development and commercial activities. Our strategy has a singular focus to build a multi-franchise business in solid tumor oncology focused on GU and GI histologies based on the depth of the cabozantinib business RECONNECT the potential breadth of the zanzalintinib opportunity and the scope of our early-stage pipeline.
Key highlights for the quarter include: first, we saw a continued strong performance of the cabozantinib business. CABOMETYX continued to grow in revenue, demand and market share as the leading TKI for RCC and the market leader for neuroendocrine tumors in the oral second-line plus segment. Importantly, we expedited the build-out of our GI sales team in the first quarter to accelerate the growth of the CABOMETYX INTUITY before zanza could come online for CRC later in 2026.
First quarter 2026 U.S. cabo franchise net product revenues grew 8% year-over dollars compared to the first quarter of 2025. Continuing its role as a worldwide leading TKI global cabo franchise net product revenues generated by Exelixis and its partners grew 12.5% year-over-year to $764 million in the first quarter 2026. Chris and P.J. will share our financial and commercial highlights in their prepared remarks.
Second, zanza is in the pull position as our next potential oncology franchise opportunity. The NDA for the zanza-atezo combination and thirdline plus CRC, based on the STELLAR-303 data is currently under review and is the top priority for the entire Exelixis organization. The zanza development program is rapidly advancing with 7 ongoing or soon to start pivotal trials along with additional Phase II trials planned in prostate cancer and lung cancer. Dana will review the highlights for zanza and our extensive pipeline of early-stage assets in his prepared remarks.
Third, the goal of our development effort is to establish zanza as the TKI of choice in the 2030s and for RCC and other important indications that could surpass the impact of cabo in the 2020s. Zanza already has a meaningful development footprint in RCC with 3 ongoing Phase III studies across multiple lines of therapy, underscoring both the breadth of our ambition and the confidence we and others have in this molecule.
At the same time, as our experience with COSMIC-313 highlighted and was also recently seen with news from competitive trials, navigating the complexities of first-line RCC to improve upon existing regimens is a challenging endeavor at best and requires careful selection of combination partners to improve efficacy parameters while managing tolerability and safety considerations. We remain committed to raising the bar in first-line RCC and continue to prioritize orthogonal MOAs to combine with zanza.
In parallel, we seek to expand the breadth and depth of our zanza pivotal trial efforts, positioning zanza for durable leadership in RCC and other important tumor types. Fourth and finally, we remain committed to running the business at the highest level of efficiency as we advance our R&D priorities and at the same time, generate substantial free cash to invest in the pipeline to the right targeted BD at the right price to access external sources of innovation and to continue our share repurchase program, including an additional $750 million that was just authorized by the Exelixis Board.
So with that, see our press release issued an hour ago for our first quarter 2026 financial results and an extensive list of key corporate milestones achieved in the quarter. And I'll now turn the call over to Chris.
Thanks, Mike. For the first quarter of 2026, the company reported total revenues of approximately $611 million, which included cabozantinib franchise net product revenues of $555 million. CABOMETYX net product revenues were $552.8 million and included approximately $3.6 million in clinical trial sales. As a continued reminder, clinical trial sales have historically been choppy between quarters, and we expect this to continue into the future.
Gross to net for the cabozantinib franchise in the first quarter of 2026 was 30.2%, which is higher than the gross to net we experienced in the fourth quarter of 2025. This increase in gross to net deductions in the first quarter of 2026 is primarily related to higher 340B volume, higher Medicare Part D discounts and rebates and higher co-pay assistance when compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. Our CABOMETYX trade inventory was slightly lower at 2.1 weeks on hand at the end of the first quarter 2026 when compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. Total revenues in the first quarter of 2026 also includes approximately $45.9 million in royalties earned from our partners, Ipsen and Takeda on their sales of cabozantinib.
Our total operating expenses for the first quarter of 2026 were approximately $359 million compared to $363 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. The sequential decrease in these operating expenses was primarily driven by lower clinical trial costs, offset by higher FTE-related costs and stock-based compensation expense. Provision for income taxes for the first quarter of 2026 was approximately $57.2 million compared to a provision for income taxes of approximately $8.2 million for the fourth quarter of 2025. This increase in tax provision was related to certain items that were recognized in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The company reported GAAP net income of approximately $210.5 million or $0.81 per share basic and $0.79 per share diluted for the first quarter of 2026. The company also reported a non-GAAP net income of approximately $232.8 million or $0.90 per share basic and $0.87 per share diluted. Non-GAAP net income excludes the impact of approximately $22.3 million of stock-based compensation expense net of the related income tax effect. Cash and marketable securities for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, was approximately $1.4 billion.
During the first quarter of 2026, we repurchased approximately $430.8 million of the company's outstanding common stock, resulting in the retirement of approximately 10 million shares of the company's outstanding common stock at an average price per share of $42.99. As of the end of the first quarter 2026, we had approximately $159.4 million remaining under the $750 million stock repurchase plan authorized by the company's Board in October 2025. We expect to complete the October 2025 stock repurchase plan this month. Additionally, in May 2026, the company's Board authorized a new $750 million stock repurchase plan that expires on December 31, 2027.
And finally, we are reiterating our full year 2026 financial guidance, which is detailed on Slide 16 of our earnings presentation. And with that, I'll turn the call over to P.J.
Thank you, Chris. The CABOMETYX business continued to grow in the first quarter of 2026. The team is executing at an extremely high level with CABOMETYX continuing to be the #1 prescribed TKI in renal cell carcinoma, the #1 TKI plus IO combination in first-line RCC and the #1 oral agent in second-line plus neuroendocrine tumors. Importantly, Q1 had the highest number of new patient starts in a quarter ever for CABOMETYX, representing strong momentum in the business.
At the same time, CABOMETYX plus nivolumab had the highest quarterly first-line RCC market share to date. This is an exciting time for the team with zanzalintinib on the horizon as we prepare to launch our next franchise molecule, which would also expand the Exelixis GI franchise. The prescription data in the oral TKI market basket of cabo, lenvatinib, axitinib, sunitinib and pazopanib convey the strength of cabo relative to the competition. Looking at the TRx comparison of Q1 2025 to Q1 2026, CABOMETYX grew 3 share points from 44% to 47%. Additionally, CABOMETYX TRx volume grew 14% in Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025, outpacing the growth rate of the market basket, which was 7% for the same period.
Physicians are responding positively to the broad net label and the contemporary trial design and perceive the efficacy and tolerability of cabo as favorable relative to other small molecule therapies in the space. academic and community prescribers are using cabo broadly across patient and tumor characteristics, including patients with neuroendocrine tumors arising in the pancreas, GI tract and lung across all tumor grades, functional and SSTR status and those who have received prior treatment with Lutathera.
Turning to new patient market share for second-line plus neuroendocrine tumors in the first quarter, we are pleased that CABOMETYX remains the market leader in the oral therapy segment. Additionally, our research indicates that there is opportunity to continue to grow market share, particularly in the community. For that reason, we expedited the expansion of our GI sales team in Q1, and the team was in the field, providing greater reach into the community in order to continue to grow net market share for CABOMETYX. Our new representatives joined us with significant oncology sales experience, particularly colorectal cancer and GI oncology.
Importantly, the expanded team will be able to gain valuable experience selling cabo before we turn our focus to the potential launch of zanzalintinib in colorectal cancer. As we are thinking about building on and expanding our GI franchise, we are thrilled with the results of STELLAR-303 and a PDUFA date set for later this year. Pending regulatory approval, we believe that these data would provide Exelixis with a compelling commercial opportunity in 1 of the big 4 tumors. third-line plus CRC setting consists of approximately 23,000 patients in the U.S. and represents an overall market opportunity of approximately $1.5 billion in terms of contemporary pricing.
Our market research and advisory boards demonstrate positive feedback and excitement for the STELLAR-303 data. Physicians reiterate the significant unmet medical need for patients in the third-line plus CRC setting and are excited for the potential to have an ICI option available for the broader population of CRC patients. In closing, we are pleased with the growth of the cabo business, both in RCC and net -- in neuroendocrine tumors, prescribers see CABOMETYX as a more favorable choice versus other previously approved generic small molecule therapies.
Simultaneously, our internal team is in full launch preparation for zanza and the excitement around these efforts is palpable. We look forward to the opportunity to launch the next Exelixis franchise later in the year to be able to help appropriate patients with colorectal cancer. Beyond STELLAR-303, which could exceed cabo be impacted across tumor types.
I will turn the call to Mike.
Thanks, P.J. Our strategy R&D continues as a multidimensional solid tumor oncology franchise molecule. And as you'll hear in my upcoming remarks, we continue to be focused on maximizing our productivity with disciplined investment in high-value opportunities for zanza as well as the rest of our portfolio. Today's update provides a little more clarity on the 7 ongoing or soon to start pivotal studies for zanza. So my update today will be focused mostly on those trials, but I'll also spend some time on additional exploratory studies that we've designed to investigate zanza's potential in certain patients with prostate or lung tumors.
Starting with our NDA for zanza plus atezo in colorectal cancer, which is based on the results from the STELLAR-303 trial, our team has been highly engaged during the review process. And from our standpoint, the review has been proceeding on schedule towards the PDUFA date in early December. As a quick reminder, the trial has dual primary endpoints designed to assess overall survival, both in the broad intention to treat or ITT population, which includes patients both with and without liver metastases as well as more specifically in the population of patients without liver metastases, which we refer to as the NLM patients or population.
The study met one of its dual primary endpoints, demonstrating a 20% reduction in the risk of death with the combination in the broad ITT population at the final analysis, while data pertaining to the other dual primary endpoint of overall survival in the NLM population showed a trend in overall survival favoring the combination. The NLM data were immature at the data cutoff, and the trial has been proceeding to the planned final analysis for this endpoint, and we continue to expect to have those top line results around the middle of this year, depending on event rates.
The level of excitement here is really high right now about what a potential approval would mean for this large and underserved patient population. And as you heard from PJ, our preparations for launch are in full swing. So we'll be ready to go the moment we receive a positive decision. But as we've discussed since late last year, we believe there is significant additional franchise potential for zanza in colorectal cancer in an earlier stage of the disease.
To realize that potential, our team has been highly focused on launching the STELLAR-316 trial, which will investigate zanza with and without an immune checkpoint inhibitor in patients with resected Stage II or III colorectal cancer who following definitive therapy have tested positive for molecular residual disease or MRD and have no radiographic evidence of disease. About 20% of patients are MRD positive following definitive therapy, and these patients typically have a poor prognosis with median disease-free survival times in the 6- to 8-month time frame.
Critically, these patients have no therapeutic options that have been shown in a Phase III trial to prevent or delay metastatic progression of their disease. So this represents a significant opportunity in the colorectal cancer landscape. As we've communicated in the past, MRD and STELLAR-316 will be determined with the Signatera circulating tumor DNA test with Natera as our diagnostic partner. Their database built from testing thousands of patients each year has been incredibly helpful to us in terms of prioritizing activation of clinical trial sites that are already known to have the highest cadence of testing and the highest numbers of eligible patients.
We're quite pleased with the level of enthusiastic feedback on STELLAR-316 that we've gotten from key opinion leaders and other stakeholders, and we are on track for initiating the trial around midyear. Moving on to kidney cancer. zanza's target profile, including the TAM kinases, MET and VEGF receptors position zanza for success given the known roles played by these kinases in kidney tumors. STELLAR-304 is our first pivotal trial for zanza in kidney cancer, evaluating the combination of zanza plus nivolumab versus sunitinib in patients with locally advanced or metastatic non-clear cell renal cell carcinoma.
The non-clear cell RCC space is underserved with no positive readouts from a Phase III study specifically focused on these patients despite them representing approximately 1/4 of all RCC cases. If positive, STELLAR-304 could potentially establish the first standard of care based on a randomized controlled Phase III trial for these patients. We completed enrollment last year. And given current event rates, we now expect top line results from the study in the second half of 2026. And if positive, those results could lead to our second NDA filing for zanza.
In terms of opportunities in the clear cell RCC space, progress continues with regard to the 2 pivotal studies that Merck is running in clear cell RCC, evaluating zanza in combination with belzutifan. LITHSPARK-033, which compares zanza plus bells versus cabo as first-line therapy in patients who received anti-PD-1 or anti-PD-L1 therapy in the adjuvant setting was initiated last year. In addition, Merck recently initiated LITSPARK-034, a global Phase III pivotal trial evaluating zanza plus bells versus bells plus placebo in second- or third-line patients with advanced RCC who have progressed on or after both anti-PD-1 or L1 and VEGFR TKI therapies in sequence or in combination.
We are certainly excited to see these Phase III studies in clear cell RCC moving forward. And based on our franchise experience in this indication, we believe there are other important opportunities to explore. As we've mentioned previously, we continue to have discussions with potential collaborators to investigate novel combinations pairing zanza with other modalities and orthogonal mechanisms when there is strong scientific rationale for the combination. Given the demonstrated clinical differentiation we've seen with zanza and its potential to be the TKI of choice for combinations with immunotherapies and other mechanisms of action, we're looking to advance novel combinations in the future that have significant potential to move the needle for clear cell RCC patients. We hope to give further updates on these activities in the future as we get closer to launching the trials.
Moving on now to neuroendocrine tumors. STELLAR-311 is our Phase III trial evaluating zanza compared to everolimus. Sites and investigators are very enthusiastic about the trial given their growing experience with cabo in later-line disease and the opportunity presented by STELLAR-311 to improve on the current treatment landscape in earlier lines, which hasn't seen anything new for over a decade. That enthusiasm appears to be driving the very strong momentum we're seeing in the trial.
Another opportunity for zanza that we've been discussing since late last year is in meningioma, which is the most common primary central nervous system tumor, accounting for approximately 40% of cases. Most meningiomas are benign, slow-growing neoplasms. However, up to 22% will recur after primary therapy, which consists of surgery and radiation. Importantly, there are no approved systemic therapies for meningioma that's refractory to local therapies. So this represents a very high unmet need in neuro-oncology.
Today, we announced that we have now initiated STELLAR-201, our Phase II trial evaluating zanza in patients with recurrent meningioma who are no longer responsive to or eligible for local therapies. The primary endpoint of the trial is objective response rate with secondary efficacy endpoints, including duration of response, progression-free survival and overall survival. The trial will enroll up to 100 patients. And given the extremely high level of interest and enthusiasm for the trial among neuro-oncologists, we anticipate enrollment to be brisk. Pending favorable results and given the absence of any approved systemic therapies in this setting, the STELLAR-201 trial represents an important opportunity for zanza to become the first systemic therapy that could improve outcomes for these patients.
Today, we also announced 2 additional studies exploring zanza combinations in indications where significant unmet need exists. STELLAR-202 is a planned Phase II trial in squamous non-small cell lung cancer that will explore the addition of zanza to pembro in the maintenance phase after induction with pembro plus chemotherapy. Part of the rationale for this trial comes from data we obtained from cabo plus atezo in the CONTACT-01 trial, where the subgroup of non-small cell lung cancer patients with squamous histology appeared to derive substantial benefit from the combination compared to chemotherapy. This is an important opportunity given the relatively short PFS in the maintenance setting and the lack of any new approvals in the frontline squamous non-small cell lung cancer since KEYNOTE-407 established the current standard of care with pembro plus chemo.
We're also planning an additional expansion cohort in the ongoing STELLAR-002 study to evaluate zanza in combination with docetaxel in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer who have measurable disease. This is also based on initial observations with cabo, where a small Phase II study showed favorable outcomes when combined with docetaxel in metastatic CRPC patients. This cohort in STELLAR-002 is particularly meaningful because if zanza in combination with chemotherapy is shown to be safe and active, that could open up a number of opportunities across a range of solid tumors where chemo or potentially even ADCs carrying chemo payloads are standard of care. Our teams are super focused on launching these new studies soon, and we expect both to be initiated in the second half of this year.
Now shifting to our early clinical pipeline. We have 4 molecules in this space that are currently in clinical development, namely XL309, XB010, XB628 and XB371. And the Phase I studies for these early molecules are progressing well. In terms of earlier-stage development candidates, we are continuing to advance exciting new small molecule and ADC programs, and I look forward to sharing more details as these early pipeline programs advance. Our strategy with the early pipeline is focused on identifying the next potential franchise molecules beyond cabo and zanza. So we will continue our approach of getting to go/no-go decisions quickly and efficiently, leveraging our expertise to pick the winners and ultimately maximize impact for patients.
So with that, I'll turn the call back over to Mike.
All right. Thanks, Dana. I will wrap up here by thanking the entire Exelixis team for their outstanding efforts in the first months of 2026. We think 2026 could be a potentially transformational year for the company, and everyone at Exelixis is working together to move the needle for cancer patients and continue building value for all our stakeholders. We are focused on growing the cabo business while at the same time advancing zanza as our second potential franchise opportunity, all while continuing to investigate our early-stage pipeline.
As always, I want to thank everyone at Exelixis for their individual and collective efforts, great teamwork and positive energy as we work every day to exceed expectations on our mission to help cancer patients recover stronger and live longer. We look forward to updating you on our progress in the future. Thank you for your continued support and interest in Exelixis, and we're happy to now open the call for questions.
[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from the line of Paul Choi with Goldman Sachs.
2. Question Answer
My question is for Dana. And in light of the recent miss from the LightHSPARK-012 study, can you maybe just comment on your thoughts on updated thoughts or learnings from that trial result for your belzutifan plus zanza combination development program, specifically LGHSPARK-033 and 034 -- and just any learnings or potential trial considerations that you've had in the wake of that data?
Thanks for the question, Paul. Yes. So first of all, our strategy with zanza is to really focus on creating the next franchise molecule in RCC and the top TKI combination therapy in clear cell RCC in the 2030s. So the results from LightHSPARK-011 are -- that was with -- sorry, with 012 that was the triplet of pem len plus belz versus pem/len. As Mike mentioned earlier, triplet therapy in clear cell renal cell carcinoma is not an easy game. And our strategy is really focused on trying to establish a standard of care that covers multiple possible outcomes based on trials that are going on now.
So we have multiple shots on goal with LITSPARK-033034. We have the STELLAR-304 data coming out, hopefully soon in non-clear cell renal cell carcinoma. And as I mentioned earlier, we're evaluating a number of other potential novel and innovative combinations to further explore the clear cell RCC space. So that includes molecules from our own early pipeline. If XB628, which is our novel and innovative bispecific with multiple IO arms on it pans out, that could be a very interesting combination to explore in these patients. It would be very innovative and nothing in that space has been explored so far.
So as Mike said earlier, we have multiple shots on goal to really establish and drive the zanza franchise into clear cell RCC in the future, especially focused on the 2030s, not on today, but on the 2030s.
One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Yaron Werber with TD Cowen.
Just 2 quick questions from us. One, if you could please provide some color on the contribution in renal cell carcinoma versus NET for cabo? And then second, I recall that cabo failed as a monotherapy in advanced unselected non-small cell lung cancer and also on OS in Phase III for pancreatic, even though it showed a response in PFS. So you touched on some of the combo regimens that have shown early data, but could you maybe expand on the rationale for testing combo therapies in STELLAR-202 and 002?
Yes. Dana, why don't you take that second question first. And I think she was talking about prostate cancer. So what's the rationale for going into Phase II in non-small cell and then prostate cancer?
Sure. So as I mentioned, the data that support our hypothesis for testing zanzalintinib in patients with non-small cell lung cancer comes from the CONTACT-01 study, which I think you're referring to. So this is the Phase III study evaluating cabozantinib plus atezolizumab versus docetaxel in a broad population of non-small cell lung cancer patients. So in that study, the subpopulation of patients with squamous histology actually did quite well, appeared to have a favorable benefit compared to the control arm in the study.
For that reason, the STELLAR-202 trial is focused 100% on the squamous patient population with non-small cell lung cancer. In this population, the current standard of care is platinum-based chemotherapy plus pembrolizumab during induction, which is up to 4 cycles of chemotherapy or 12 weeks. And then they go on pembrolizumab maintenance. So we are looking to add zanzalintinib onto the maintenance arm of pembrolizumab.
We've already shown that zanza can sensitize patients to benefit with IO in the STELLAR-303 trial, a population of colorectal cancer patients that have historically been refractory to treatment with IO. So we think this is a very rational exploration to pursue for these patients with squamous histology non-small cell lung cancer and high unmet need. In prostate cancer, similarly, there was a small Phase I study combining cabozantinib with docetaxel.
So the Phase III trials that failed were not combining cabozantinib with chemotherapy. In the small Phase I, however, we saw very, I'd say, favorable outcomes in the patients that were treated in this small study. So based on the results from that, we believe there is rationale to pursue that combination in the Phase I STELLAR-002 trial. Once we get data showing safety and potentially activity of that combination, that opens up a lot of different avenues of exploration, either in castration-resistant prostate cancer, potentially in lung cancer and potentially in other indications where either chemo or chemo-based therapies, including ADCs might be standard of care.
One moment for the next question. And that will come form the line of Sudan Loganathan with Stephens.
So my first one, I wanted to get your comments on the quantifiable metrics regarding cabo sales in net and how the maybe sales team has grown over this time and how it will continue to? And then secondly, on zanza ahead of the CRC launch, what are some quantifiable metrics there as well that we can keep in mind ahead of the potential launch towards the end of this year?
Great. Thanks. P.J., do you want to take that one?
Yes. Thanks for the question. With regards to NET, we are really pleased with how the business is going. As I mentioned, overall, in the first quarter, we had our highest new patient starts ever for CABOMETYX in a quarter. So that's certainly a really strong sign of the health of the business now and as those new patient starts ultimately translate to refills going forward, puts us in a really good position.
Our business in net is broad, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, really across all segments and is viewed very favorably by physicians. Importantly, we are the market leader in the second-line plus oral segment. And our research and feedback really indicate that we have opportunity to continue to grow, particularly in the community setting, which is why we expedited the build-out of our of our GI sales force, so we could really have that deeper reach into the community and drive further business there.
I'm really pleased to say that, as I mentioned, we brought in a very strong team with GI and CRC experience in sales, and we're really already seeing impact from that team. So we're very, very pleased with that. Importantly, that team gets here and gets a chance to know the customers in the GI segment, gets experience selling cabo and a TKI, which is fantastic. As we think about looking forward to the potential approval of zanza in CRC, which, as I mentioned, we're all really excited about.
Our launch preparation is really in full swing and the team is really focused on driving that forward. We're really excited to be able to optimize that launch and help patients with CRC. This is a really big and exciting opportunity for us in terms of the potential to be in one of the big 4 tumors of colorectal cancer, the third-line plus setting, as I mentioned, is 23,000 patients. And as we look at that market in terms of contemporary pricing, that's a $1.5 billion opportunity.
But really, the way we're thinking about zanza is, obviously, that initial launch will be really important, but we're thinking about it in terms of franchises and how do we expand ultimately then the CRC franchise with an earlier study such as STELLAR-316 -- and ultimately, how do we build it out in RCC, as Dana discussed, potentially in lung, meningioma, et cetera, with just so many exciting opportunities. So really looking forward to getting going on am.
One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Sean Laaman with Morgan Stanley.
This is [ Catherine ] on for Sean. We just had one on the updated SELLAR-304 data readout timing. Could you provide a bit more color on whether the slower event accrual reflects better-than-expected disease control? Was it a mix of the enrolled histologies or other trial dynamics? And then as a quick follow-up, just given that the population is highly heterogeneous, how are you defining success against or across histologies? And are there specific subtypes where you believe the rationale is strongest here?
Sure. Thanks for the question, Catherine. So regarding 304, again, this is our Phase III study comparing zanzaltintinib combined with nivolumab versus sunitinib. And as such, it really is the first Phase III trial to address this high unmet need patient population. Currently, there is no Level 1 evidence supporting a standard of care in these patients. So we see a huge opportunity here for the combination of zanza plus nivo. Regarding the slight change in timing for events, I really don't want to speculate on what's driving that. We're just in the late stages of collecting events. So as we mentioned, we expect to get those soon sometime in the second half of the year.
One moment for the next question. And that will come from Andy Hsieh with William Blair.
So just talking about the 316 for a little bit. There's an AdCom recently that kind of talks about a progression -- definition of progression or change of therapy that's based on non-radiographic progression. And so for the adjuvant CRC study, I'm just curious about the back and forth with the FDA agreeing on an MRD positivity as a way to change therapy. Just to educate us on what the dialogue was and then how you come to the conclusion that this is actually a regulatory approvable approach?
Thanks, Andy. Dana, do you want to take that one?
Sure. Thanks for the question, Andy. So we've discussed the STELLAR-316 trial, I think, since December last year. We're super excited about this study because it really addresses a high unmet need population. This is a population of patients who are resected Stage II or III colorectal cancer, have completed definitive therapy and now are in a watch-and-wait game. to wait and see if they develop late-stage disease. The Signatera test has shown in a number of different studies to very -- with a high degree of accuracy, predict rapid progression of patients. So the patients who are positive for the test typically have a median disease-free survival of around 6 months. So it's a very high unmet need population.
The trial has been well designed with, I'd say, a large degree of input from key opinion leaders, other stakeholders as well as the agency. And we're very, very confident in our design, and we're really excited to release more details as we get closer to launch. And when we do, you'll see a lot more design characteristics of the study, especially when it gets posted to clinicaltrials.gov. So just stay tuned for more information.
One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Michael Schmidt with Guggenheim.
I had a question on RCC. And just wanted to understand the size of the opportunity for the LightHSPARK-033 study. What percentage of patients would be qualified for this? And then beyond 033 and 034, are there any other studies you're considering for RCC, specifically with zanza?
Thanks, Michael. P.J.?
Yes, thanks for the question. With regards to LightHSPARK-033 and as we've talked about here, we're really thinking about RCC broadly as establishing zanza as a franchise in RCC and certainly beyond. That opportunity, as you look at the first-line setting can be approximately 1/4 of patients coming off of adjuvant therapy. And obviously, that can evolve as more and more patients are getting adjuvant therapy, but approximately 1/4 of the first-line setting.
But I think the important thing, too, is really doing multiple studies as we've laid out in terms of LifSPARK-33,34, STELLAR-304, kind of drawing off our experience from cabo, how we did multiple studies in RCC to really establish ourselves as the leader -- the leading TKI in the 20s here, and we're building towards our vision of establishing zanza as a leading TKI of the 30s.
As Mike and Dana mentioned, we're looking at combinations with orthogonal MOAs and different approaches to continue to really raise the bar in the standard of care in the first-line setting in RCC generally.
And one moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Silvan Tuerkcan with Citizens.
I just want to ask a little bit broader around your strategy around resource allocation. You're running one of the broadest development strategies for an unapproved drug at this moment, and you even expanded it now. And obviously, you're sitting on a lot of data that we don't see, but that clearly make you very excited on zanza. How do you balance that broad strategy with buybacks and potential M&A, which hasn't happened yet?
Yes. Silvan, thanks for the question. Chris, do you want to take that one?
Yes, Silvan, thanks for the question. So from a capital allocation perspective, and that's how we look at it is how do we allocate capital against R&D, how do we allocate capital against BD opportunities and then how do we allocate capital against share repurchases. And we're a financially strong company. We have significant cash flows. We're prioritizing our R&D spend on a constant basis so that we're understanding what projects are kind of sticking their heads up and saying fund us. And so we'll continue to do that. Andrew and Stefan and the team are continuing to look at BD opportunities. And we do have access to capital also.
So we have a lot of things going on here that allows us to execute on all those 3 elements of R&D investments, BD investments and share buybacks. And from a share buyback perspective, we believe that zanza is a great opportunity and that if that opportunity is not really being appreciated generally, and we think we're undervalued. So we're going to continue to buy back shares.
One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Jason Gerberry with Bank of America.
This is [ Chi ]on for Jason. And so my question is on LSPAC-034. Can you contextualize the choice of using Belzutifan monotherapy as the control arm as opposed to, say, an alternative TKI monotherapy or perhaps even Belzutifan plus Lenvima given the pending sNDA review there? And I also noticed that OS is listed as a dual primary endpoint. So would PFS alone be sufficient to support approval? Or would you need an OS win there? So just again, thinking about both likelihood of success and regulatory bar based on the recent LISPARC-011 data?
Yes. Dana, go ahead.
Sure. So LISPARK-034 is Merck study. And as you mentioned, it's evaluating zanza plus bells versus bells plus placebo in the second-line plus setting in patients who have progressed both on an IO-based regimen and a VEGFR TKI regimen, either in sequence or in combination. So the dual primary endpoints are 2 different efficacy endpoints -- in clear cell RCC, OS has really become a gold standard. So having 2 different efficacy endpoints in the trial typically requires both to hit, but it really depends on the data, right? It's always data dependent and the timing of when those results come in. Regarding the population, this study as well as many other studies that are ongoing now or planned for the future really anticipate multiple potential treatment landscapes for patients.
So this is really in the landscape of patients who are really going to be candidates for belzutifan alone or belzutifan in combination with a TKI. So these are typically, again, patients who have already progressed on a TKI-containing regimen and an I-O-containing regimen. So that really should be an important opportunity, important unmet need when this trial reads out.
One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Leonid Timashev with RBC.
I want to stick with the franchise approach by 2030 that you've been talking about. I mean you mentioned CRC. I wanted to focus on NETs and how you're thinking about the franchise there in the future. I mean you're running 311, but are there any other combinations that you're looking at, especially as the treatment landscape evolves with radiopharmaceuticals, ADCs? How are you envisioning building out zanza into the 2030s?
Yes. Thanks for the question. Why don't we tag team this. P.J., why don't you go first and then Dana can add some commentary?
Yes. Thanks for the question, Leonid. With regards to kind of the way we're thinking about 311, I guess, in the marketplace, as I mentioned, cabo is off to a really strong start in terms of kind of the second-line plus setting. And that study is designed specifically to go head-to-head with everolimus as an active comparator, which is kind of a first in the setting. So really positioning that patient population in the first or second-line setting, so earlier lines of therapy and obviously, then a larger patient population and really potential to beat an active comparator head-to-head, a lot of excitement around the study design, as Dana mentioned in his prepared remarks. And so we're excited about that zanza opportunity.
Yes. And then beyond that, I'd say that we are -- I think we've mentioned this before, we're very committed to this patient population. We've seen how much benefit cabo is bringing to the table for these patients. We've seen the excitement around STELLAR-311. So we're really focused on how else we can really address this patient population. So I think as we discussed at R&D Day, we're also looking at a number of other potential opportunities earlier in the discovery pipeline to either address specifically the neuroendocrine tumor patients who require treatment also with an SSTR2 agonist.
These are mainly patients with functional tumors, but any other patients who express the receptor and are known to be potentially sensitive to that type of treatment. We're developing a small molecule that we hope to file an IND on later this year. that could be a novel approach to offer in combination with zanza if the STELLAR-311 trial is successful, we might do that type of combination in the future. And then broadening out to other types of neuroendocrine carcinomas. This is namely tumors that express DLL3.
So primarily small cell lung cancer, but a range of other neuroendocrine carcinomas that occur throughout the body in the GI tract and in the prostate. And that molecule, we presented some data at AACR this year, XB773. It's a DLL3 targeted ADC that with a very novel format. It's a very small format with a topoisomerase inhibitor payload that we think is differentiated versus the other competitive molecules that are in the space right now. And that molecule can be quite exciting once we generate some data. And if it does stand up and show some interesting activity, there we can also explore combinations with zanza. So we have multiple irons in the fire exploring this space across histologies and different patient populations.
Our next question will come from the line of Kalpit Patel with Wolfe Research.
Maybe one on the LGHSPARK-012 trial. There was no benefit of the triplet there compared to the doublets in that first-line setting. So I guess for your and Merck's strategy, would you ever entertain a triplet in that exact same first-line setting? Or what would that future study look like in CRC?
Go ahead.
Yes, I'll take the question, Kalpit. Thanks for the question. Yes. So as you know, we are collaborating with Merck on LSPARK-033, which is evaluating zanza plus bees in the frontline setting, and that's versus cabozantinib. So slightly different hypothesis that's being addressed here. There's no IO in this combination because it's assuming that the patient is coming in after adjuvant or it's requiring patients to come in after having been treated in the adjuvant setting with IO. So looking at other potential combinations beyond this, especially triplets that requires a lot of very specific and focused scientific rationale.
So we're not opposed to doing it. It just has to be the right molecule in the right setting. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, -- we have been looking at a lot of orthogonal MOAs to pair with zanzalintinib in this space as well as we're actually going to be investigating the combination of zanza plus our own novel bispecific IO in its Phase I study. So we're pending more discussions and more data that we can generate in Phase I, and we'll reveal or disclose more details about any of those trials as they come to fruition and get closer to launch.
One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Etzer Darout with Barclays.
First, do you -- how are you thinking about like how are you planning to leverage the non-liver met data from STELLAR-303 given the December PDUFA date? Are you going to update your NDA to include that data? And then it would be interesting to hear your thoughts around the investigator-sponsored trial coming up at ASCO of cabo/nivo in non-clear cell renal cell carcinoma and how to think about that data set relative to zanza and 304?
Dana, go ahead?
Sure. Thanks for the question. Yes, regarding the STELLAR-303 trial, as I mentioned, we are on track to see those results of the non-liver metastasis subgroup, the primary endpoint that's focused on that subgroup around midyear this year. We're still on track for that. Regarding the data and sharing with the FDA, we certainly plan to share those data as well as any other data that the agency might ask for as part of the ongoing review. And again, as I mentioned, from our standpoint, that review is progressing on schedule toward the PDUFA date in early December.
One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Ash Verma with UBS.
Yes, I wanted to just get the latest thoughts on cabo competitiveness in RCC. So just given where we saw earlier the LISPARL-022 study that had a PFS positive, do you think it's unlikely to show OS separation because there isn't enough attribute to that analysis?
P.J.?
Yes. Thanks for the question. I think we're really pleased with where we are competitively in RCC. Generally, I wouldn't want to speculate on how other trials continue to read out their data. But what I'll say is kind of as we talked about earlier, building a franchise -- we've done so many studies in RCC that we have strength of the business really in every segment. We saw this quarter the highest frontline market share for CABOMETYX plus nivolumab in the first-line setting, which we're very pleased with. And we continue to see strong momentum there in the first-line setting, given just sort of the breadth and depth of the data and also the experience that prescribers have using this combination now for so many years. So we see potential to continue growing in RCC, and particularly in the first-line setting.
At this time, there are no further questions. And so I will turn the call over to today's host, Andrew Peters. Mr. Peters?
Yes. Thank you, Sherry, and thank you all for joining us today. We welcome your follow-up calls with any additional questions you may have that we were unable to address during today's call. Thank you all again, and have a great rest of your week.
This concludes today's program. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Exelixis, Inc. — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Starke Q1‑Zahlen und hohe Liquidität; CABOMETYX wächst, ZANZA‑NDA unter FDA‑Review mit mehreren pivotalen Readouts 2026.
Berichtet: Quartal zum 31. März 2026 (Q1 2026).
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: $611 Mio. Gesamterlöse für Q1 2026.
- Cabo (global): $764 Mio. für die globale cabozantinib‑Franchise (+12.5% YoY); US‑Franchise +8% YoY.
- Ergebnis: GAAP NI $210.5 Mio.; GAAP EPS $0.81; Non‑GAAP NI $232.8 Mio.; Non‑GAAP EPS $0.90.
- Cash: ~$1,4 Mrd. Cash & kurzfristige Wertpapiere zum 31.03.2026.
- Buybacks: $430.8 Mio. re‑purchased in Q1; neues $750 Mio. Autorisierungsprogramm im Mai 2026.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Franchise‑Fokus: Ziel, multi‑franchise‑Onkologie mit CABOMETYX (bestehendes TKI) und zanzalintinib (ZANZA) aufzubauen.
- ZANZA‑Priorität: NDA für ZANZA+atezo in 3L+ kolorektalem Krebs ist Top‑Priorität; Start mehrerer pivotaler Studien in RCC, NET, weiteren Indikationen.
- Kapitalallokation: Disziplinierte R&D‑Investitionen plus gezielte BD und fortgesetzte Aktienrückkäufe (Board autorisierte zusätzliche $750 Mio.).
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Guidance: Volle Jahresprognose 2026 wird bestätigt (Management reiteriert Guidance; Details auf Slide 16 der Präsentation).
- Regulatorik & Timing: ZANZA NDA in Prüfung; PDUFA‑Fenster/Entscheidung für STELLAR‑303 wird für frühes Dezember 2026 angegeben; Non‑LM (non‑liver metastasis) Subgruppe‑Daten erwartet Mitte 2026.
- Pivotal Readouts: STELLAR‑304 (non‑clear cell RCC) Topline H2 2026; STELLAR‑316 (adjuvantes MRD‑positives CRC) Start circa Mitte 2026.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Kombinationsstrategie RCC: Nach negativen Triplet‑Signalen betont Management Multiple‑Shots‑on‑Goal; konkrete Triplet‑Pläne wurden nicht detailliert beantwortet (Fokus auf 2030er‑Franchise).
- Trial‑Timings & Treiber: Fragen zu langsameren Event‑Raten (STELLAR‑304) beantwortet man nicht konkret — Management vermeidet Spekulation und nennt nur erwartete Lesetermine.
- Kapitalallokation vs. BD: Analysten haken auf Balance zwischen R&D, BD und Buybacks — Management betont ausreichende Cash‑Flows und fortgesetzte Rückkäufe bei gleichzeitigem BD‑Interesse.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Operativ starkes Q1 mit wachsender CABOMETYX‑Franchise und hoher Liquidität; ZANZA‑NDA und mehrere pivotalen Readouts 2026 sind Kurs‑treibende Ereignisse. Hauptrisiken bleiben regulatorische Entscheidungen, Trial‑Timing/Events und anhaltende Gross‑to‑net‑Druckfaktoren, die Umsatz und Marge beeinflussen können.
Exelixis, Inc. — Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Hello again, everyone. I'm Etzer Darout, senior biotech analyst at Barclays. It's my pleasure to have Exelixis with us. With us today, we have Senior Vice President of Strategy and Investor Relations, Andrew Peters. Thank you so much for joining us. And I'm sure folks are familiar with the Exelixis story, but maybe it'd be helpful to maybe just start with some introductory remarks, and then we'll go into Q&A.
Sure. Thank you again for the invite. Always like being in Miami this time of year, even though the weather in California is also nice this week. As a reminder, we're going to be making some forward-looking statements today. So please see disclosures around relative risks in our business in our SEC filings.
So Exelixis is a commercial oncology company, really built around our lead molecule, CABOMETYX, cabo which is a tyrosine kinase inhibitor that targets VEGF as well as a whole host of others, Met, Axl, MER, the TAM kinases, really kind of designed to be a best-in-class molecule across a wide range of indications. It's approved in kidney cancer, liver cancer, thyroid cancer and now neuroendocrine tumors. And so it's really kind of provided the foundation and a lot of the insights is to what we do at the company, both from a research and discovery perspective, but importantly from a strategic perspective as well. And I'm sure I'll get to that a little bit later.
We did $2.123 billion in net product sales last year. We've guided roughly $2.4 billion or so at the midpoint for this year and kind of the cabo business continues to hit on all cylinders commercially. Behind that, we have kind of our next-gen, what we think of as a truly best-in-class and optimized TKI that comes on the heels of cabo called zanzalintinib, which kind of takes the core essence, the special sauce, so to speak, of cabo and further optimizes it, most notably around half-life and kind of PK and some of that.
So zanza is in 7 pivotal studies right now with plans to initiate additional studies hopefully soon. And we also had on the first positive pivotal data from that program readout last year, and we have a PDUFA date from FDA in December. Beyond that, we have a whole host of both small molecule and biotherapeutics in our internal portfolio. And then kind of lastly, more in my purview is as we think about where do we want to be in 5 years and how do we really grow value, it's treating more patients with more medicines, helping them live longer and shifting that standard of care in oncology.
And so as part of that, our financial success that we've had with cabo enables us to both invest internally, invest externally. And then we've been embarking kind of on a series of share buybacks as well to make sure that we understand, we think our stock is cheap candidly. So yes, so that's kind of a little bit of an overview of the company and happy to kind of go wherever.
Yes. Maybe first on that top line guidance that you talked about. What do you see as sort of the key levers around top line guidance? I mean I think the positive, I think, over the last couple of years has sort of been the neuroendocrine franchise. And if you think about just in general about sort of top line and then the guidance and you think about sort of what are the pushes and pulls as you see it?
Yes. So as we talked about kind of on the last earnings call, the really growth drivers for next year are pretty simple. It's continued momentum in the base business around RCC and then continuing to kind of execute on the NET launch. Both of those, as we expect both for 2026 and beyond are kind of really drivers going forward. So I think I'd focus there.
Right. And then as far as sort of maybe the last part that you talked about, just in terms of BD and the potential to sort of maybe look at the external environment for potential assets. I guess what are you seeing in the marketplace that you think could potentially generate value, not necessarily assets, but just maybe indications or specific profiles that you think could be additive to what Exelixis has already built with this commercial platform?
Yes. I mean the way that I think about the company and kind of the way we think of -- we've described ourselves externally as we're kind of a big small company. And what we really mean by that is unlike kind of our larger peers, we've chosen to be particularly focused in solid tumors and even within solid tumors, GI and GU oncology. So within kind of those franchises, so to speak, we think that we're scaled, we're optimized, we're experts, and we're leaders in RCC, NET, CRC.
We want to continue to build out around those. And I mentioned kind of the cabo story and how it is a through line through everything we do. When we think strategically about the company, we use something that we call the cabo lens, which is what are the learnings as to why is cabo successful? How do we continue to double and triple down in the areas that we have been successful? And how does that create value ultimately for all of our stakeholders, for patients, for shareholders, for employees, et cetera.
And so kind of within that GI/GU landscape, that's kind of very much where we focus. As it relates to kind of what's external, kind of accurate outlook is biotech is a tough business. And I think we have to kind of go in eyes wide open as we're looking both at our internal portfolio as well as externally. The math will say that most things just don't work. And so our job as drug developers is to try and find those needles in a haystack, so to speak, that are going to be those programs that ultimately help patients.
One of the things that we've learned kind of again in that cabo lens is that the reason we've been so successful commercially isn't because we're the ace VEGF TKI on the market, it's because we've been able to generate differentiating data and shift that standard of care -- shift that Kaplan-Meier curve to the right. That's why cabo is used.
And so when we look externally to try and identify those opportunities that can supplement our portfolio, that's really the lens that we're looking at is program X at another company, something that we truly believe has the potential to become a new standard of care? If not, it's not for us. We're not going to invest in it. So we're pretty disciplined on that front, and we're going to continue to be so.
Great. And Merck disclosed a couple of belzutifan data sets at ASCO GU for patients with renal cell carcinoma. Maybe just from your perspective, what you view sort of the read-throughs are for cabo and maybe even for zanza as you think about potential non-clear cell -- potentially other RCC indications for that program.
Yes. So kind of before during and after that conference, we had spent a lot of time with clinicians who are treating patients trying to understand the dynamics around the data. And one of the things that kept coming up is this question of that all patients and physicians have when they're trying to understand new mechanisms, new combinations in particular is, is it better to combine? Or is it better to sequence? And oftentimes, kind of the best way to answer that is really through just the simple question, is there an overall survival advantage?
From our perspective and a lot of the feedback we heard from RCC treaters is essentially, if you take kind of a second-line TKI program, 10, 11 months PFS followed by the belzutifan monotherapy data from LITESPARK-005 with 5-, 6-month PFS, kind of that absolute PFS is actually similar, if not a little bit longer than what LITESPARK-011 saw, plus you layer on kind of the added toxicity of the combination and the fact that with the combination, you also lose what we've heard pretty consistently is a big driver of belz use is the so-called TKI break.
So a lot of these patients will have been on a prior TKI for the past 24 months sometimes. And so all drugs have adverse events and TKIs have a particular set, TIF targeting agents have a different set. And so what kind of that sequenced approach with belz has historically offered is providing patients kind of an active modality with a little bit of a different tolerability profile and that's kind of been an important part of why that program has been so successful.
So the question then becomes, if you're not really gaining a lot from a PFS perspective, you're adding tolerability issues and you're kind of limiting your ability to offer patients that TKI break, that's somewhat of a challenging dynamic, and that's why our experience was there wasn't a ton of robust enthusiasm for it. The second dynamic that's actually come up around Exelixis and the data is for those physicians and patients who do ultimately decide that, that combination is probably best suited for them in the second line, what it means is we'll probably see a little bit more frontline share for cabo/nivo.
The reason for that is as physicians are kind of looking at all the arrows in their quiver, so to speak, on how to help patients along their journey with RCC, if they have a sense that they're going to give len/belz in the second line, they probably won't use a len-based regimen in the first line. And we've been trying to drive kind of that frontline share for the last 3 years. And so if len/pem isn't an available first line, they'll probably go to cabo/nivo. So net-net, I think kind of the overall results of the [indiscernible] were a little bit of a net positive for us, but we'll see.
Right. Maybe shift gears to zanzalintinib with a PDUFA for third line plus CRC in December. How are you thinking about maybe incremental sales force? And how much of the existing sales force for RCC can you leverage?
Yes. So taking a little bit of a step back, one of the things that we've increasingly talked about over the last couple of years is aspirationally our goal to be reasonably balanced 50-50 between, say, GI and GU. Obviously, that was kind of kicked off with the CABINET data and our launch for cabo in NET. But we certainly think with zanza coming in, CRC to expect to kind of fully build that out.
And so what we did and what we announced at the end of last year was an increased size of our commercial organization, our sales force, specifically around kind of the NET opportunity to really kind of maximize and put our foot on the gas to make sure that we're doing everything possible to kind of target those patients and really maximize that opportunity. But what it also does is kind of that GI focus enables us to really have a lot of organizational and operational boots on the ground, so to speak, to prepare as much as we can ahead of the potential launch later this year.
And so one of the, I guess, incremental updates that we'll get for STELLAR-303 is CRC data in patients with and without liver metastases, an update there. What does that ultimately contribute to the opportunity for zanzalintinib in this late-line setting initially? And then also, how common is that sort of testing done in CRC patients where this is something where physicians can easily adapt in terms of their diagnosis of CRC?
Yes. So I guess that the liver met, non-liver met dynamic is it can often be just kind of observational. Does the patient have a metastasis in the liver. So it's actually something that's quite common. As it relates to the overall profile, I guess, the important dynamic to keep in mind is that the data that read out last year reflects kind of the ITT population. So it's inclusive of both patients with liver mets and non-liver mets.
What we're waiting for later this year is really the fact that at the time of that primary analysis, the number of events for the non-liver met patients was relatively immature, somewhat of a kind of obvious dynamic given that patients who have metastases in liver tend to have much worse prognosis, given the physiological impacts of just what that metastasis would represent. So not surprising that you see kind of a different temporal dynamic.
But what's also important is the data that kind of came out at ESMO as well as published afterwards was really that we don't see a meaningful difference in effect size across any of those populations, liver met, non-liver met, prior VEGF use, et cetera. And so I think that was actually honestly a pleasant, I don't want to say surprise, but really a pleasant update for us because it shows that the combination of zanza/atezo is really active across all patients. So that's kind of the important dynamic.
Why we're looking forward to the data later this year is, again, somewhat of a statement of the obvious. When our commercial team goes out into the market and sees physicians and kind of starts to have those conversations, it's a much more powerful message when you can candidly show, here's a Kaplan-Meier curve with the ITT, here's the liver mets and here's the non-liver mets and really show kind of overwhelmingly that patients live longer if they're on the doublet versus kind of the current standard. And so that's kind of why we think it's so important is it further adds to the story of why we're so excited about zanza in the setting.
Great. And for STELLAR-316, you've decided to go into adjuvant CRC. Maybe what data points that you're looking at, whether externally or internally that sort of prompted the move into that earlier line setting?
Yes. So this is one that I'm particularly excited about, and I think I'm kind of proud that Exelixis is really at the forefront of the science here. Kind of the incentive, one is, as I mentioned earlier, kind of this franchise view of the world, we really want to kind of invest and broaden our presence in CRC, not only with zanza, but with the rest of our pipeline as well.
But as we started to look at kind of the CRC landscape and say, okay, we have a positive Phase III study in a late-line population. We understand now that kind of this tumor type is particularly sensitive to zanza, what can we do with it? And kind of at the same time as that, a lot of data started to emerge around kind of this ctDNA positivity and what that means from a patient's perspective. And so Natera has the Signatera test and they published pretty extensively around what it means from the patient's perspective when they're ctDNA positive or ctDNA negative.
So unfortunately, for about 20-ish percent of patients who, after what we call definitive therapy because there's slight little differences between colon and rectal. But broadly speaking, after kind of that adjuvant treatment, if they ultimately do become ctDNA positive, what that means is they have a reasonably high rate risk of recurrence in actually a relatively short period of time around the order of 5, 6 months, 6 months or so.
The other unfortunate kind of reality for those patients is the current standard, if you do test positive ctDNA is watch and wait. There's essentially nothing we can do for these patients until their tumor eventually comes back and progresses. And so the combination of all of those things basically let us realize, well, there's this huge unmet need that we have the opportunity to kind of identify patients who are likely to recur, who are also likely to be sensitive to our drug, zanza and basically design a study to help them.
And so when we look at the design of the 316 study as well as kind of the operational dynamics around working with Natera, it's something that I'm particularly excited about because unlike a normal standard Phase III study where you open up 1 million sites and kind of screen a ton of patients and hope that, that funnel ultimately delivers it, the ability for Natera to kind of help us and work with us to help identify those patients that could be potentially eligible for the study from an operational perspective, that's pretty interesting.
And then similarly, we have the ability to offer these patients an option, whereas right now, it's watch and wait. And so it enables us as a company to run a placebo-controlled study in oncology, which again helps us kind of define that new standard of care and really help patients. So that's kind of the key dynamics there.
And do you have a good sense of the -- maybe the median rate or median time to progression for those patients...?
Yes, it's about 6 months, if you look at it. And that's kind of generally around pretty consistent around date of ctDNA positivity. And so that's kind of an important dynamic to keep in mind.
And for STELLAR-304, this is the non-clear cell RCC pivotal study. What conversations have you had with the FDA around sort of choosing sunitinib as a comparator versus sort of the zanza plus nivo active arm? I guess one of the things we sometimes get from the questions are having sort of a control arm where you can sort of see what the incremental benefit is of your drug in question versus sort of a completely different standard of care. Just wanted to kind of understand the dialogue...
Well, I think the challenge and candidly, one of the reasons we wanted to run 304 is it's a little bit of a new and novel dynamic in oncology where there's actually never been a randomized study in non-clear cell RCC. It's kind of this interesting area where all drugs that are approved to treat kidney cancer actually have labels that are inclusive of both clear cell and non-clear cell. And even though there's been no data really to define that. Instead, what tends to drive utilization is single-arm, unrandomized, small, sometimes even single center kind of substudies that tend to have pretty wide error bars and confidence intervals around kind of data.
So it's somewhat of a tricky question to say, what does SUTENT do? What does cabo do? What does len do? What does pembro do? And so that's why in kind of the market, our experience has been that utilization is really kind of a little bit all over the map. It's a hodgepodge of a bunch of different stuff just because there is no standard of care. And so when we thought about embarking on kind of an expansion of the zanza opportunity, that was one of those things where we realized this is a chance for Exelixis to again define a standard of care, plant our flag in the ground and say, with Level 1 evidence, this is what patients should use if they have kind of the clear cell or non-clear cell histologies. And so that's kind of the background of that whole process.
Great. And for zanza with STELLAR-311 in neuroendocrine tumors, I guess one question that we're constantly being asked is the positioning of zanza relative to cabo given sort of what we've seen from cabo in that indication. And ultimately, does cabo ultimately going generic also play a role in how those sort of can coexist?
Yes. So I think the best way to kind of frame that or think about that is to kind of contrast the CABINET study with what we're doing in 311. So CABINET was a cooperative group run reasonably broad study that was placebo-controlled and had a pretty wide range of patients in their prior treatment experience. But for the most part, there were a lot of reasonably late-line patients in there. 311 on the opposite side of the end is kind of comparing zanza against that first oral option, everolimus.
And so that just -- it's a different patient population, one against an active comparator versus kind of placebo. So I think our expectation for the evolution of the NET market is kind of that exact dynamic where robust -- hopefully robust data against an active comparator in a much earlier line population is in a little bit of a different category than kind of that later line placebo-controlled study. So I think that the dynamic and the difference between the 2 is really what's going to drive uptake in the future.
Right. Maybe a couple of questions on the early pipeline, one of which is XB371, your tissue factor ADC. We also see a few other anti-issue factors moving through the clinic. And how are you thinking about differentiation there, again, relative to TIVDAK relative to what else is sort of being developed?
Yes. So I think kind of the -- again, the core of that is really around our view on franchises and kind of the importance there. So TIVDAK as an example, kind of the more standard, historic Seagen MMAE [indiscernible] kind of linker technology. 371, we think, is kind of a fully optimized ADC where the antibody, for example, is noncompetitive with Factor VII, whereas TIVDAK is. So obvious implications around the coagulation cascade and potential bleeding risk, et cetera.
The other dynamic coming back to the franchise point is we chose both a linker and then importantly, a warhead, which we think are particularly active and important in CRC. So that's essentially an ADC that we designed to kind of further our franchise view of the colorectal cancer opportunity because of that chemo sensitivity of the tumor and the expression profile of tissue factor in those patients. And so it's a really good example of kind of when we approach where we want to go strategically, we're trying to be particularly thoughtful around how do we execute on that, what are the best modalities and targets, et cetera.
Great. It looks like we're up on our time. Andrew, thank you so much for your participation. Thank you for our listeners as well.
Thank you.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
Exelixis, Inc. — Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
📊 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Exelixis baut auf dem kommerziellen Erfolg von CABOMETYX (cabo) auf und setzt strategisch auf Zanzalintinib (zanza) als nächsten Wachstumshebel. Ziel: ausgewogenes Portfolio zwischen Gastrointestinale (GI) und Genitourinäre (GU) Onkologie und selektive externe Investitionen; Aktienrückkäufe signalisieren Vertrauen.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Finanzen: Nettoeinnahmen 2025: $2,123 Mrd.; Guidance 2026 ~ $2,4 Mrd. (Midpoint).
- Pipeline: Zanza in 7 pivotal Studien, positives Phase‑III‑Signal und PDUFA (Prescription Drug User Fee Act) Termin für Dezember; STELLAR‑Programme erweitern Indikationen.
- Kommerz: Verkaufsorganisation aufgestockt für NET (neuroendokrine Tumoren); Ziel: 50/50 GI‑GU Nutzungsverhältnis und Cross‑Selling zwischen RCC (Nierenzellkarzinom) und CRC (Kolorektales Karzinom).
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Regulatorisch: Bestätigte PDUFA‑Frist für zanza im Dezember; STELLAR‑303 Datenupdate (Lebermetastasen vs. keine) kommt später im Jahr.
- Studienstart: STELLAR‑316: adjuvante CRC‑Studie mit ctDNA‑Selektion (Signatera) zur Identifikation Hochrisiko‑Patienten.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Wachstumstreiber: Management sieht Top‑Line‑Upside primär durch anhaltende RCC‑Basis und NET‑Launch; kommerzielle Hebel wurden detailliert diskutiert.
- Wettbewerb: Positionierung gegenüber Belzutifan‑Kombinationen: Diskussion Sequenzierung vs. Kombination, Auswirkungen auf First‑line‑Marktanteile zugunsten cabo/nivo.
- Comparators: FDA‑Dialog zu STELLAR‑304 (non‑clear cell RCC) und Wahl von Sunitinib als Kontrollarm wurde erläutert; Zweck: Level‑1‑Evidenz für eine bislang heterogene Indikation.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Call/Panel bestätigt: CABOMETYX bleibt Cash‑Treiber, Zanzalintinib ist der entscheidende Wachstums‑Katalysator mit mehreren readouts 2026; Risiken bleiben klinische/ regulatorische Ergebnisse und Wettbewerbsdynamik. Aktienrückkäufe unterstreichen Management‑Zuversicht.
Exelixis, Inc. — The Citizens Life Sciences Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Thank you. Welcome back to the Citizens Life Science Conference. My name is Silvan Tuerkcan, and it's my pleasure to host Exelixis with Andrew Peters. Thank you so much for joining us.
Yes. Thank you for the invite. Glad to be here.
Do you have any opening remarks? Or should we start forward-looking statements?
Yes. Happy to get into all that fun stuff. So just as a reminder, today, I'm going to be making some forward-looking statements. So please see all relevant disclosures about risks in our business in our SEC filings.
Yes. No, I just want to give a chance to get that other way. Maybe can you walk us through some of the recent cabozantinib numbers and where investors should be focused in 2026?
Yes. So 2025 was an exciting year for Exelixis, not only kind of the first pivotal data from our zanza program, but I think kind of in the background, we continue to kind of operate at the highest level on our commercial organization on the development organization kind of across the board. So at the heart of that is cabo, CABOMETYX was approved in, I guess, seven different indications now.
But kind of the heart of that growth is coming from, one, the RCC business and then the recent launch in neuroendocrine tumors. So we did $2.123 billion in revenue and gave guidance for, I guess, $2.4 billion roughly in the midpoint for 2026. And so we see that kind of continued momentum, continued operational focus in that business just going forward. Within kind of our guidance, we expect growth not only in our kind of core RCC franchise, but our newly launched NET indication as well. So hitting on all cylinders, so to speak.
Maybe talking about the NET opportunity first. Obviously, we've heard a couple of numbers on how big that could be. But how far are we penetrated into that opportunity? And what's your latest thinking of the size there?
Yes. So with the approval in kind of the end of March last year, we're still almost a year from the launch. But it's an exciting indication, one that we think is probably underappreciated not only by -- the Street, but historically by pharma as well and why we're so excited about it, not only kind of with the cabo launch, but our development program with zanza as well and then our SSTR2 program behind that.
So what we've talked about historically is if you take kind of the oral segment, the oral segment in net, it's about $1 billion if you kind of apply some contemporary pricing and contemporary duration, just given that prior to cabo was really a generics market. So our goal is to candidly just launch and penetrate as much into that $1 billion segment as we can. One of the dynamics that we always highlight about neuroendocrine tumors is oftentimes these can be relatively indolent tumors for patients, disease for patients.
And so there's the dynamic not only of market share capture, but that time course of waiting for patients to kind of roll off their prior therapy, have the conversation with their oncologists as to kind of what's the new option that they should consider, and we hope that's going to be cabozantinib.
Great. And I think initially, when I added the indication, I think I estimated about $300 million. And then I think in this earnings, you already said they contributed $100 million. So obviously, I greatly underestimated like many others, this opportunity. But yes, there's a lot of patients out there, I think, looking for an oral option.
Yes, exactly. I mean I think it's one of those that when the cabo NET data read out, we started doing kind of our typical kind of channel checks, market checks, really putting kind of pen to paper, so to speak, understanding the market size. And it was one of those that every time we kind of kept going back to it, it kept looking better and better.
And so I think last year or the year before, what you started to see is this evolution of our enthusiasm and excitement around just NET as an indication over time. And right now, the way we think about our business is kind of through the lens of franchises, obviously, kind of within single molecules, cabo, zanza, multiple indications, but also the indication verticals. So we want to have a presence of all of our compounds in RCC, CRC and now NETs.
And the reason is the more we've really come to understand that opportunity, the more we realized it's much larger than I think people appreciate. And it's also an opportunity for us as Exelixis to really become the dominant player there. So in the same way that we're the market leaders in RCC, we want to be the market leaders in NETs. And certainly, kind of with the launch of zanza, hopefully later this year, we want to grow to be the market leaders in CRC as well.
Great. Maybe talk about the existing franchise and the dynamics in renal cancer. ASCO GU had some updates from competitors and specifically, Merck had the LITESPARK-011 data in the second line. Is this a threat to your cabo monotherapy there? And what portion of current cabo sales would that be competing with?
Yes. So the 011 data kind of taking a step back from the weekend and just kind of taking it all in, so to speak, before, during, after the dynamic we've really heard is kind of as expected. We knew it was a positive study based on the top line release or the headline release on PFS, but all of our kind of physician work, clinician work had basically said the best way to figure out how this combination can fit in the treatment paradigm for patients is really around overall survival and the importance there.
And the reason for that is one of the challenges with any oncology drug is the question of do you combine mechanisms, do you combine modalities or do you sequence them? Typically, if you combine them, you're going to want to see a survival advantage because you lose whatever kind of advantages you have if you sequence it. So if you look at the 011 data and contrast it with what you would reasonably expect with, say, a second-line TKI and then a third line belzutifan is 10, 11 months plus/minus with the TKI, 5, 6 months with belzutifan.
So kind of that absolute PFS benefit of the sequence approach is actually similar, if not a little better than what they saw in the combination. Then you layer on kind of the added tox of any time you combine 2 molecules, you see kind of this additive tox -- to the extent that roughly 40% of patients in that study, 20% for len, 20% in belz actually discontinued 1 of the 2. And so you functionally have a pretty good number of patients with a monotherapy anyway.
And so from the patient's perspective, from the physician's perspective, again, that question comes up is, well, what should I do combine or sequence. The other thing to consider is that one of the dynamics we've heard that's been a pretty significant driver of belz use is what's called the TKI break is how patients and clinicians describe it. For a lot of these patients, they'll have been on therapy IO/TKI oftentimes for the past 2-plus years.
TKIs all have a certain set of kind of common adverse events. And so what belz does is it adds a mechanism that's active in RCC, but has kind of a different grouping of side effects. And so what that means is that it gives them a break from kind of the standard TKI-related AEs. When you combine them upfront, you kind of lose that break. And so the dynamic that we heard was basically without survival telling us that there's a clear-cut reason to use the combination, it's probably net-net, not a big impact.
The other dynamic that we've heard is that for those physicians and clinicians who do choose to use kind of the len/belz in that second-line setting, -- what that probably means is they'll incrementally use additional cabo/nivo in the front line. The reason for that is we're out every day in the market competing for market share in the frontline segment with len/pem. And so if physicians know that they'll probably use len second line as part of the belzutifan combination, that means they won't use it frontline, so they'll go to cabo/nivo as kind of the IO/TKI of choice. And so that kind of dynamic, I think, net-net, leads us to believe that the update over the weekend is probably a net slight positive for us. But ultimately, it's probably not practice changing landscape changing, et cetera.
Yes. My one thought is also -- I have one eye on LITESPARK-021, which is, I guess, in the early line pem, belzutifan and versus pembro alone. Is there a read across from the data that -- or what's your takeaway from the data that we saw, I guess, from in LITESPARK-11 to 21?
Yes. I mean I think the thing to keep in mind for any of these earlier studies, especially kind of in the adjuvant space is, again, the need to show kind of a survival advantage because everything I said before about combinations versus sequencing is even more important earlier and the earlier and the earlier you go kind of in that treatment journey for patients with kidney cancer because, again, as you consider line of therapy, what these patients deal with on a day-to-day basis, especially kind of in that adjuvant space, a lot of these patients are functionally cancer-free.
And what is that cost benefit of adding a second drug in that -- as part of their kind of treatment, what are they actually getting out of it. So that's one of the kind of important dynamics to consider any time you move earlier. And candidly, it's how we think about development across the board around optimizing dose, optimizing combinations, why we're so excited about zanza because it offers some kind of improved optimized ability around dose titration, et cetera. So it's one of those things that I think is a through line through all oncology development and commercial utilization and all of that is that kind of clinical benefit risk as you consider effect and adverse events and all that stuff from the patient's perspective.
Great. And I was also thinking that since you mentioned adjuvant, the LITESPARK-022, the pembro adjuvant setting, would that also drive maybe in the frontline patients into the cabo combo because when you use, I guess, IO upfront, would you then gravitate more to a TKI in the frontline setting?
Yes. I mean, again, it's kind of more of that same dynamic. Our perspective on the 022 data at ASCO GU was certainly interesting, but adoption based on a somewhat modest DFS benefit is probably unlikely, again, because of everything we talked about before around sequencing versus combinations and you lose the benefit of, say, having that HIF later in disease progression.
The evolution of the RCC market over time has really been encouraging and rewarding to see as the kind of 5-year survival rates continue to creep up, that's because companies like Merck and companies like Exelixis continue to invest in the space. But a lot of that's also driven by new drugs, new modalities that can be used kind of both early and late. And so the decision to kind of use them at a particular time point, you got to make sure that over the course of the journey for patients that they have, it really is worthwhile for them.
And then there's anything we could read across from any of the ASCO GU data with Welireg to your zanza combo there. So for example, LITESPARK-033 anything that makes maybe you incrementally more positive on that combination?
Yes. I mean, from my perspective, I'd say, certainly, the data show that belz is a very active and interesting drug in RCC. And the question then becomes how do you optimize it, where do you optimize it? And what do you combine it with? Certainly, our perspective that if you contrast, say, len versus cabo versus zanza, we certainly think that zanza is an optimized best-in-class TKI.
And so we're asking the question with 033, if you have a HIF inhibitor like belzutifan, with an optimized TKI like zanza, can some of the challenges that patients faced around discontinuations, toxicity and all of those dynamics that may have limited the 011 data with a better TKI, can you overcome some of those limitations. The way that we think about development in RCC isn't how are patients treated today, it's how are patients treated in the future.
What we talk about internally is cabo is the TKI for the 2020s. We want zanza to be the TKI for the 2030s. So we kind of sat down with our partners, Merck, to really pencil out how do we want to work together on this combination. The reason we kind of settled on that 033 setting, that post-adjuvant setting is now that pembrolizumab has an overall survival advantage in the adjuvant space, more -- we think more and more patients will kind of be treated much earlier there.
So then the question becomes, well, what do they get if they ultimately do relapse. And so that's kind of the dynamic that we wanted to focus on. It's more of a question of what's that patient journey in 2030, 2031 as opposed to what does it look like today. But overall, I think we're really encouraged and excited about the combination.
Yes. Maybe talking about zanza a little bit more at a high level. And obviously, that's the focus of many investor questions we get today. 1.5 years ago, you put roughly a potential for $5 billion on this drug. I don't know if that's still accurate. And how are you at a high level thinking about the different indications, which ones are really the key ones to get to a really good number for that program and which are maybe the smaller ones and which ones are the high-risk ones?
Yes. So when we put that $5 billion number out, I think it's -- we wanted to kind of highlight, one, the breadth of the opportunity that we're pursuing, but also just candidly say, we're excited about zanza. We think it can be bigger than cabo, kind of full stop. Subsequent to that, we've actually continued to expand our clinical program. We now have 7 pivotal studies ongoing. And so if anything, that number is probably a little bit low.
One of the important dynamics that I'd highlight around kind of that market build, so to speak, is that it's not driven by any single indication. The other kind of part of that messaging that we wanted to put out there is that as we're evolving as a company kind of from the cabo RCC story to cabo NETs and now zanza, it's also about the expansion of not only owning GU oncology, but GI oncology as well.
So as part of that $5 billion or so is roughly kind of 50-50 split between the two. We've since added additional indications like STELLAR-316 in an earlier CRC setting, and that's one we're particularly excited about. So I think the best way to think about zanza and my goal for 2026 is for investors and stakeholders to really understand that while we're really excited about STELLAR-303 and the commercial launch potentially later this year, I think i kind of a hyper focus on -- we get questions all the time around market share and all those stuff. That's really important, but it also risks kind of missing the force for the trees, so to speak, that we think zanza collectively has a really big opportunity.
And we've been particularly thoughtful and deliberate about which indications we're selecting, why we think we're likely to be successful because at the end of the day, our business is to run successful studies to help patients live longer, not to kind of just run studies for the sake of running studies. And so we want to be successful kind of across the board.
Great. Maybe talk about your first successful study there, the STELLAR-303, zanza/atezo in late-line colorectal, obviously, a very fragmented market. You will still awaiting some OS data here on a subset of patients. Can you just kind of walk us at a high level about how you think about that market and maybe give investors an idea of how big that can be?
Yes. So I guess kind of to the latter question, our best guess, our market research suggests that collectively in the U.S., that third line plus segment is about $1.5 billion kind of total. And share, as you highlighted, is reasonably fragmented. About 1/3 of the market is kind of the sunlight regimen, 1/3 of it's TKIs and 1/3 of it is kind of chemo and a bunch of other stuff.
The other dynamic there is there's the community versus kind of academic center and like all oncology drugs, the vast majority of patients ultimately are treated kind of in that community space. And so when we think about kind of the zanza/atezo opportunity ahead of the PDUFA date in December, our market research really suggests quite a bit of enthusiasm for the combination.
Part of that is driven by the fact that there have been many, many prior attempts to get a checkpoint inhibitor in these patients. And our study was actually the first to be successful there. And so one, we think that highlights kind of the differences between zanza and some of the other TKIs comes at the heels of LEAP-17. It was a study that Merck ran that evaluated len and pem, and that study actually was unsuccessful. We did atezo/zanza kind of in a very similar population and obviously showed a survival benefit.
And so one of the things that keeps coming up is, one, offering patients a checkpoint containing regimen. It's really driving a lot of enthusiasm. Kind of simply put, everyone is watching the Super Bowl. They see ads for pembro, they see ads for nivo, they see ads for these drugs that seem to have quite an effect in cancer patients and ask their oncologists, "Hey, is this an option for me?" And until now, the answer has been no.
And so having the ability to offer patients a chemo-free regimen, a checkpoint containing regimen that has shown a survival advantage over standard of care that we think is a compelling message, plus when you layer on the fact that in kind of the U.S. contemporary market, the way patients are treated, the number of prior cycles or prior lines of bevacizumab use, it can kind of complicate the picture for how sunlight is used because if you look at their data, there's a pretty stark difference between how that combination behaves, whether or not patients had seen prior bev use. So we're really excited about it. We're kind of doing a lot behind the scenes to kind of get up and running and be ready for that potential approval later this year.
And then we're still missing a little piece of the data, the OS in non-liver mets patient. What's the importance of that? Or I mean it's not gating for the...
Yes. I mean, overall, the data that we presented at ESMO was published reflect kind of the ITT population. And I think one of the most important parts of that data set was really showing we had benefit across all of those different cohort subtypes, liver met, non-liver met, prior bev use, et cetera. Really kind of that consistency of response is something that jumped out to me, jumped out to KOLs, et cetera.
The liver met, non-liver met dynamic kind of goes back to, say, our clinical hypothesis prior to the start of the study. Thankfully, it just shows it's efficacy is not driven by any particular subgroup. It's kind of broad across the board. But it's also somewhat of the statement of the obvious that if we're able to show robust benefit across each of those populations statistically, that's better from a commercial perspective.
And so my ideal scenario is being able to show a Kaplan-Meier curve of the ITT liver met population and non-liver met population because that's a powerful message to clinicians and the patients that's basically saying the robustness of this combination really has the opportunity to affect patients' lives and help them live longer, better, et cetera. And that's really the goal at the end of the day is to shift that standard of care.
Yes. I'd love to talk more in detail about that, but I wanted to touch on another study, STELLAR-304 that we are getting a few questions on as we're waiting the readout in the non-clear cell RCC setting. Can you just tell us about maybe what the bar here is? And to date, what data or what investors can find confidence in for that readout?
Yes. I mean the 304 study is an interesting one in that it's actually the first pivotal study that's ever been run in non-clear cell RCC. Just functionally speaking, all drugs that are approved in kidney cancer have a label for both clear cell and non-clear cell, despite no data, kind of no randomized data, I should say, suggesting kind of how they perform.
And so what we wanted to do is really kind of plant our flag in the ground and say this is the standard of care in the segment of patients is about 20%, 15%, 20% of kidney cancer because right now, use is based on relatively limited single-arm unrandomized studies that, as you know, can be kind of challenging to interpret. If Sutent or cabo or any of the agents that are used show pretty wide confidence intervals around each of these studies that are single center or select patients a certain way, it's actually kind of hard to define what performance is expected.
And so unsurprisingly, as a result, use is a little bit of a hodgepodge across the board. There's no real dominant player in the non-clear cell space. And so this gives us a chance to come out with Level 1 evidence and say, hopefully, zanza/nivo is the standard of care in this patient space. So we'll see. We've guided for data in the middle of the year.
Great. Well, thank you so much. Thanks for joining us today.
Thank you for having me.
It's a pleasure to host you.
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Exelixis, Inc. — The Citizens Life Sciences Conference 2026
Exelixis, Inc. — The Citizens Life Sciences Conference 2026
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernthese: Exelixis betont fortgesetzte kommerzielle Stärke von cabozantinib (CABOMETYX), beschleunigte NET-Penetration und enormes Upside-Potenzial durch das neue TKI‑Programm "zanza" mit mehreren laufenden pivotalen Studien; Fokus auf Franchise-Expansion statt Einzelerfolg.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- NET‑Strategie: Ziel ist Marktführerschaft in Neuroendokrinen Tumoren (NET); Management schätzt das adressierbare orale Segment grob auf ~$1 Mrd. und nennt NET als wichtigen Treiber neben RCC.
- Zanza‑Programm: Sieben pivotalen Studien, Ambition größer als früher geschätzte ~$5 Mrd.; Schwerpunkte: CRC (STELLAR‑303/316), RCC (033, 304) und Kombinationsoptimierung gegenüber bestehenden TKIs.
- Partnerschaften: Zusammenarbeit mit Merck bei Kombinationsstudien (z.B. 033 mit Belzutifan) und gezielte Entwicklung, um Toxizität/Dosisoptimierung als Differenzierer zu adressieren.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Konkretes: Management nannte 2025er Umsatz $2,123 Mrd. und gab Guidance‑Mittelfeld ~$2,4 Mrd. für 2026; erwähnte, dass NET bereits substanzielle Beiträge liefert (Host nannte ~$100 Mio.). PDUFA für STELLAR‑303 erwartbar im Dezember; STELLAR‑304 Daten Mitte Jahr.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- NET‑Penetration: Nachfrage, wie schnell cabo Marktanteil in NET gewinnt; Management sieht großen, noch unterschätzten Markt und betont schrittweise Penetration wegen indolenter Verläufe.
- RCC‑Konkurrenz: Auswirkungen von Mercks LITESPARK‑011 (Len/Belz) wurden kritisch hinterfragt; Management hält ohne klaren OS‑Vorteil Auswirkungen für begrenzt und argumentiert, Kombination vs. Sequenzierung sei entscheidend.
- Offene Punkte: Analysten forderten subgroup‑OS aus STELLAR‑303 (Leber vs. non‑Leber mets) und klare Umsatz‑/Marktanteilsabschätzungen; Management gab taktische Antworten, vermied detaillierte Markt‑Share‑Prognosen.
📌 Bottom Line
- Fazit: Positiver kommerzieller Momentum-Check für cabo und frühe kommerzielle Beiträge aus NET; zanza stellt den größten Upside‑Hebel mit mehreren pivotalen Readouts (PDUFA Dez., STELLAR‑304 Mitte Jahr). Haupt-Risiken: ausstehende OS‑Daten, Toxizitätsprofile in Kombinationen und kommerzielle Adoption. Für Aktionäre bedeutet das: solides Kerngeschäft plus hohes katalysatorgetriebenes Kurspotenzial, aber weiterhin datenabhängig.
Exelixis, Inc. — Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone. My name is Emily Shutman, I'm a Vice President here on the Targeted Oncology team at Leerink. And I'm super happy to have with me Andrew Peters, Senior Vice President of Strategy and Investor Relations at Exelixis. So thanks so much for being with us today.
Happy to be here.
Great. So yes, maybe we could start out. ASCO GU happened very recently. So I was thinking we could start with RCC and talk about some of the dynamics within the HIF-2 alpha space for RCC. The results from LITESPARK-011 for belzutifan and Lenvima and second-line RCC were just presented. I believe it showed a PFS benefit without a Statsig benefit in survival at the time of the second interim analysis. So all that said, I'm just kind of curious to understand your perspective on this data set and where you think this regimen may ultimately fit in versus cabo in second-line RCC.
Yes. And thanks again for the invite. Happy to be here in sunny Miami. As we were talking about before, the West Coast in California has been quite a nice winter, but I understand from a lot of people that are coming from the Northeast, it's quite a treat. Before I begin, we'll be making some forward-looking statements today. So just as a reminder, please see relevant risks -- disclosures around risks in our business and SEC filings.
So yes, ASCO GU kind of a pretty common topic these days. I think from our perspective, the conference overall was as expected. What we mean by that is kind of before, during and after ASCO GU, a lot of the conversation among clinicians is really this idea of is it better to combine modalities? Or is it better to sequence? And the LITESPARK-11 data kind of in our view, and I think what a lot of the KOL feedback has been really kind of is aligned with that. If you look at, say, TKI monotherapy in the second line, followed by, say, belzutifan monotherapy in that third-line segment, the overall PFS benefit is similar, if not a little bit longer than kind of the data that was seen in 11, adding to kind of the additional tox that you saw and the fact that roughly 20% of either bells or Len discontinued. So you have somewhat of a sequence treatment anyway given that a lot of those patients are functionally just on a single agent anyways.
And so as we think about kind of the overall impact of the data, it's probably pretty benign to our business. And if anything, where we do see some len bells use kind of in that second-line space will probably drive incremental cabo/nivo use in the front line. Obviously, patients tend not to see individual treatment retreatment. And so if someone say going to get Len/Bel second line, they probably won't get Len first line. And so that's where we'll see some incremental cabo/nivo use. So kind of net-net to us, as expected, pretty overall, not a lot of robust enthusiasm for the data, let's say, given that lack of survival. And then on balance, kind of if it does get used, we'll probably see some incremental share in the first line.
Got it. Okay. No, that makes sense. Yes, we also did some KOL calls on this topic and something that they emphasize that's really important is ultimately seeing that sort of static OS benefit pan out. I guess what are your sort of thoughts on that dynamic? Like what are the -- what's the likelihood that you think the OS could eventually be Statsig? Or what are the pushes and pulls to think about there?
Yes. I mean, really hard to kind of speculate without knowing a lot of the intricacies of the statistical plan, so to speak. But -- so really kind of hard to speculate. But at this time, I'd say it's -- it would be hard to see that they'll have a very, very robust survival advantage, let's say. So if anything, we'll just have to see the data.
Yes. No, that makes sense. I think that's consistent with what we've heard, too, especially some KOLs, I think, are nervous that not really too much works after lenvatinib in that setting, whereas there are more options after cabo, which could be something that could influence the OS as well.
Yes. So we'll just have to see.
Yes, for sure. That makes sense. And then maybe could you speak a little bit about the quality of life and toxicity data that we saw for that doublet versus cabo? I think you touched on it a little bit, but that's something that's definitely risen to the surface in our KOL conversations as being really highly relevant in this setting in addition to survival.
Yes. I mean one of the dynamics to consider again in this question of combination versus sequencing is what's the added tox that you're giving as part of the combination. And then I think importantly, hopefully, it's not being crossed over that the adverse events that you see, particularly around, say, hypoxia and cardiac dysfunction, those can be especially problematic from a clinical dynamic perspective is both for patients and physicians as you have to think about baseline characteristics of patients, hypoxia, how do you monitor that?
What's the potential implications of higher-grade hypoxia over a particular amount of time? Is that what's driving kind of that increased cardiac dysfunction. So all those different dynamics are certainly in play, again, contrasted with the sense of, okay, physicians are comfortable with how they currently treat kind of in that second-line space, very comfortable with kind of that third-line bells monotherapy use.
On the AE side, one of the things that we've consistently heard is that sequence approach offers patients the benefit of kind of what we think of as like a TKI break with bells. And so for patients who have been on either IO TKIs or TKI monotherapy for 2-plus years prior, all drugs have adverse events, but the difference between, say, a TKI and a HIF is a little bit different. And so having that opportunity to be on as a monotherapy, an active modality with a slightly different AE profile, that's something that we've heard is actually important to patients and clinicians. And so that dynamic, I think, is important to consider in that overall just framework for how patients get treated as part of their journey with kidney cancer.
Yes, definitely. Yes. Sort of adjacent to that, I want to talk a little bit about your collaboration with Merck with belzutifan. So the LITESPARK-33 trial just started. So maybe, yes, you could talk a little bit about where you see zanza and belzutifan fitting into the sort of evolving treatment paradigm?
Yes. So 33, I think, is an interesting study because when we first started talking with Merck, one of the questions that came up and at least how we think about it is cabo is the TKI of the 2020 how do we define zanza, the TKI, the 2030s. And part of that is just how the evolution of patients with RCC will be treated and how that changes over time. So with pembro with adjuvant pembro, especially now that they have an OS advantage with treatment, our expectation is that, that dynamic of the number of patients who will be treated with pembro over time increases and changes.
So one of the questions that we asked and we're hoping to answer with 033 is really not what does the market look like today, but what does it look like in 2030, 2031, 2032. And our expectation is kind of that percent of patients who have received prior adjuvant pembro will be much higher. And so 033 is designed to really, again, define what the standard of care is should be in those patients. With that data being so new, the pembro adjuvant data, it's really kind of an unanswered question right now. A lot of things are used, cabo is used kind of more by default than anything.
And so 033 is a chance to say, okay, with a -- we think truly best-in-class next-gen TKI combined with HIF like belzutifan, do we have a chance to kind of redefine and functionally answer that question? And hopefully, the answer is yes, but we'll see.
Got it. Yes. Can you comment on, I guess, what percent of patients get adjuvant pembro today and where you see that going?
Yes. It's kind of still somewhat early days. I think our sense is just with the overall survival data, our expectation is that's going to continue to grow.
Got it. Yes. No, that makes sense. And the space, this HIF-2 alpha space is pretty dynamic now in RCC, a number of competitors. There's one trial called the PEA 1 trial, which is testing another HIF-2 alpha agent, casdatifan in combination with cabo in post-IO RCC. I think it might be helpful if you could talk a little bit about the key differences between LITESPARK-33 and PEAK-1 as well as any thoughts you have on the differences of the potential profiles of these combinations based on what we know about these different agents today?
Yes. So I think kind of a statement of the obvious that oncology is competitive. It's dynamic. It's always been competitive and dynamic. And so it's just kind of the nature of how we think about our business. So 033, as I said, kind of is really designed to specifically answer that question of that post-adjuvant treatment. As I understand it, I think Peak 1 is a little bit of a broader study kind of looking at more of just a generic post-IO, which is a slightly different patient population.
As it relates to, say, the differences between PA and Bells, candidly, it's probably too early to say. One of the challenges that we all have is trying to understand and tease out early kind of Phase I unrandomized data and how that will play out and influence in larger randomized Phase IIIs. The challenge is that functionally, a lot of times, Phase I patients can be different than Phase III patients. And almost a truism in oncology, you tend to see a degradation of benefit when you go from Phase I to Phase III just because of how those patients are functionally.
So really kind of early days there. One of the things I'll say is we're really excited to be working with Merck. There's no better oncology development company in the world than Merck. And so with them operationalizing the 2 studies that we're working together, along with kind of the financial partnership that we have in terms of kind of the co-funding arrangement, it's something that we're really excited for.
Yes. No, absolutely. And then, yes, I believe based on the collaboration agreement, Merck is also expected to announce a second Phase III trial for zanza in RCC. And I know this is in Merck's hands, but just kind of curious if you could comment at all on when this announcement could be or what the trial might look like, how it might be different than LITESPARK-33? Yes, any color you could provide?
Yes. I think at this point, kind of the best way to say it is just stay tuned there. We've agreed with our partners to not talk about specifics of the study until it's up and running. And so excited to talk about it when that is. But for now, I think kind of the best way is just stay tuned.
Okay. Yes, fair enough. Maybe transitioning to non-clear cell RCC. Top line data for zanza [ and nivo ] in frontline non-clear cell RCC are expected in mid-'26. Maybe you could talk a little bit about this opportunity, the trial and just sort of the broader thesis behind this combination.
Yes. So it have had really great meetings so far this morning and obviously been with data later this year have been a topic of conversation. And as I've -- as we've discussed many times in the past, one of the really striking things that always jumped out to me as we were thinking about running this study was the fact that there's never been a large randomized study in non-clear cell. By default, all of the approved agents in RCC are approved for both clear cell and non-clear cell.
And utilization is driven by kind of guideline recommendations, which themselves are a bit of a hodgepodge of single-arm unrandomized sometimes single center IST type studies that define how patients get used. So as a consequence, market share and utilization when we can tease it out is a little bit of a hodgepodge and mismatch of everything. And so what 304 does is it provides an opportunity to define with Level 1 evidence with a large randomized pivotal study, what a new standard of care could be.
And so it's a chance with zanza, nivo randomized against SUTENT to exactly define that. And so if you think about kind of the opportunity set, non-clear cell from a pure epi basis is, say, 15%, 20% of RCC. And so that's kind of how we're thinking about the market opportunity overall is do we have a chance to really draw a line in the sand and say this is the new standard of care based on robust evidence as opposed to kind of reading through some pretty limited data sets, cabo included that define the market right now.
Got it. Yes, that makes sense. I guess maybe could you set some sort of guidelines around like what level of efficacy you're hoping to see in this study?
Yes. I mean kind of tough to speculate ahead of the data, but somewhat of a statement of the obvious. We want to see robust benefit across response rates, PFS and ideally survival. The way that our experience is the way that drugs are commercially successful is if they define a new standard of care and shift how patients are treated. And so the way that, that's done is to have differentiating data. And so that's kind of the goal.
Got it. Yes. I guess, are you hoping to see better efficacy than what cabo plus nivo or atezo has shown in the Phase Ib, Phase II experience. I think there's some early data sets showing ORRs in the 30s to 40 range, PFS north of 10 months or so, 10 to 12 months. Is that something that you're looking to see?
Yes. I mean, again, that's almost the point of the study is to kind of show the limitations of those small unrandomized data sets. I mean depending on which study you look at, you tend to see pretty wide ranges of outcomes. And so it just inherently shows the limitations of cross-trial comparisons between small end data sets, which themselves have pretty wide error bars. And so I think there's some inherent challenges of saying 304 versus 20-patient data set here is a little bit of an apples and oranges comparison.
So I think our goal is to define with a robust data set what that could be because obviously, within non-clear cell, there are a bunch of different subtypes. And depending on how those were enrolled in these smaller studies, it can certainly influence. And so I think our sense is our job is to just define what that is and answer the question definitively, how should patients get treated.
Yes. No, absolutely. Yes. And I guess, I mean, beyond like the efficacy and the fact that this was the first robust Phase III data set in non-clear cell. What are other sort of qualities of zanza that you think would drive usage over cabo in the setting? KOLs that we've spoken to comment a lot on the titratability advantage over cabo that seems to really resonate with treating physicians. So if you could maybe speak to that and some other sort of advantages.
Yes. I mean I think it gets to kind of the heart of why we develop zanza in the first place. So cabo is a great drug. We -- everything we do at Exelixis, we say we kind of do through the cabo lens. One of the dynamics that does come up with cabo is it's around a half-life. It's around 4 days. And so what that translates to from a kind of clinical practice perspective is all drugs in oncology, all TKIs, patients inevitably develop AEs that are needed to manage.
The challenge there, if you kind of go by the treatment algorithm is dose hold to resolution of symptoms and then rechallenge at a lower dose. But because of that relatively long half-life that cabo has, that dose hold period can be 10 days, 2 weeks, sometimes even longer. And so that can be challenging from a patient management perspective, that can be challenging from a combination perspective if patients are on multiple modalities.
And it can be challenging just from the perspective that the longer someone is not on drug, especially at subtherapeutic doses, does that give the cancer an opportunity to kind of regain a foothold, so to speak. So zanza was really designed to take that same kinase profile that cabo has, which we really think is the sweet spot that differentiates it relative to some of the other VEGF-targeting TKIs and then improve the PK profile. So zanza's half-life is a little under 24 hours.
And so that makes it more user-friendly, so to speak, from a combination perspective, from a down titratability, all of those sorts of things. And so as we think about kind of zanza, not only in that non-clear cell space, but across the 7 pivotal studies that we're running, that's one of the most important dynamics because our view is while monotherapy certainly has a role and we're developing and it's a NET and meningioma, if you look broadly at kind of what we're hoping to do with zanza over time, it's certainly around investing in combinations as well.
Yes. No, definitely. That's helpful color. And then I want to talk a little bit about CRC. The Phase III STELLAR-303 trial for zanza and atezo read out positively at ESMO this last year. I think you have a PDUFA in December. Could you maybe talk a little bit about this data set and some of the features of this regimen versus RGO standard of care versus the SUNLIGHT regimen, which is the standard of care in the setting as well?
Yes. So we're really excited about kind of the potential zanza launch later this year in CRC. That third line plus CRC segment is a really interesting opportunity because if you think small G globally, how patients are treated in the U.S., say, given the relative dynamics between, say, KOLs and the community and just how patients are managed over time, share is roughly 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 kind of that sunlight regimen, TKIs and chemo.
But importantly, one of the things that historically hasn't been available to patients in CRC is kind of the checkpoint inhibitors and immunotherapy. And so what the 303 data provide is data to show with an overall survival advantage that patients live longer taking the combination of zanza and atezo compared to kind of the current standard of care. And so as we've gone out to the market with research and that's one of the things that jumps out is it's an opportunity to provide patients an option to have treatment with a checkpoint.
We all watch the Super Bowl and see all these ads for pembro and nivo and all this stuff. And it's a dynamic that we've observed that patients come in to talk with their oncologists and ask about these checkpoints. And up until now, the answer has been, unfortunately, these aren't available for your type of cancer. So we think, one, that's a powerful message. Two, showing a survival advantage versus standard of care is certainly kind of the gold standard historically in oncology.
And we think the 303 data that we showed at ESMO and was concurrently published certainly demonstrate that zanza/atezo should be a new standard of care. And then kind of lastly, on your question on the sunlight regimen, one of the dynamics that, again, has kind of come up in our research is if you think about how patients are treated in the U.S., the vast, vast majority of them will have prior bev use, either once, sometimes even twice. And so that sunlight data, there's actually a pretty stark difference in how patients respond to that combination, whether or not they had prior bev.
So kind of overlaying that with treatment patterns in the U.S., there's kind of another dynamic at play, especially when you consider kind of looking at our own data, there's no real difference, say, between prior bev use or not and no real difference between liver met and non-liver met. We just had a robust result across all the different potential stratification.
Yes. No, that's definitely come up in our KOL conversations as well. And I think, yes, that was one of the more positively surprising aspects of that data set for us was the robust benefit in liver mets patients. I guess, could you maybe comment a little bit on any hypothesis you have for why there was such a strong benefit in liver mets patients when historically IO/TKI combos haven't been able to show a benefit in that segment?
Yes. I mean, I think, candidly speaking, it just is a good example and highlights why zanza is different. Taking a step back and why we focused initially on this dynamic between patients with liver mets and not, physiologically, these patients are very different. You would expect if there's metastases in the liver, they have a much poor prognosis, and that's been clear. But one of the things that we've observed in the industry has observed empirically across all of these relatively contemporary studies in late-line CRC is that patients behave differently, especially on checkpoint inhibitors with and without liver metastases.
And kind of the most recent study, LEAP-17 that Merck ran looking at lenvatinib plus pembro, functionally speaking, if they would have just looked at non-liver met patients, that probably would have been a positive study. And so that kind of drove a lot of our interest around designing the study to specifically from a statistical perspective, look at those 2 different groups. kind of fast forward the clock and when we read out the top line and then full data at ESMO, we were pleasantly surprised and encouraged that we saw a robust response across both of those cohorts.
And to me, to us, that just shows that zanza is actually different. And it's not just that VEGF inhibition that's driving activity, but it's hitting the TAM kinases, hitting [ MET, EXEL, Merck, ] all of the things we think that are unique and differentiated about zanza, kind of myeloid cell biology, tumor microenvironment, all the stuff that we think historically has benefited cabo, say, all that holds true and we think kind of drive a lot of that difference. And so it shows that the combination is very effective and highly encouraged to see that activity across a broad range.
Got it. Yes. No, that makes sense. I guess sort of, yes, related to that, the final OS analysis in non-liver mets patients is expected in mid-'26. I think that one initially wasn't positive at the interim, the liver mets OS was. I guess sort of in that context, how are you thinking about this upcoming non-liver mets analysis? And kind of curious if you think that the benefit in liver mets, does that derisk the non-liver mets to some extent? Or how are you guys kind of...
Well, I think -- so just to clarify, so the data that we presented at ESMO and top line, so that was the ITT population. And so we showed a benefit across all patients. It's inclusive of patients with and without liver metastases. But given the dynamic that I talked about earlier around patients with and without just functionally can be different, the relative maturity, the number of events, survival events for that non-liver met group was still early. And so that's kind of what we're waiting for later in the year.
Certainly, kind of directionally, we're encouraged by the early look, but we'll see in the middle of the year. And so that's just kind of a dynamic to consider. But overall, when you kind of squint and look at the tail of the curve and all of that, we're certainly hopeful that we'll see a benefit. I mean, again, a statement of the obvious, one of the better case scenarios or best case scenarios from our perspective is if that data is positive, and we're able to get in a label or show clinicians kind of that benefit in the ITT benefit in the non-liver met benefit in the liver met group, that helps really drive hopefully, uptake in utilization and show that the combination really is a new standard of care in that space.
Got it. Yes. No, that's really helpful. Maybe just in our last minute, talk a little bit about 2026 guidance. I think it's like contemplates 10% to 12% growth year-over-year. Could you talk a little bit about what's driving that in '26?
Yes. I mean, as we talked about kind of in the last earnings call, continued momentum in the base business in RCC and then kind of additional momentum from the net business. So the guidance reflects kind of both of those drivers, which we expect going forward. So kind of...
Okay. Well, thanks so much for joining me.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Exelixis, Inc. — Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2026
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: LITESPARK‑011 (belzutifan+lenvatinib) zeigte einen PFS‑Vorteil, aber keinen statistisch signifikanten OS‑Vorteil beim zweiten Interim. Exelixis bewertet den Einfluss auf das Geschäft als begrenzt; strategischer Fokus liegt auf dem eigenen TKI "zanza" und dessen Phase‑III‑Programme in RCC, non‑clear cell und CRC.
🔝 Strategische Highlights
- Programm: LITESPARK‑33 adressiert das post‑adjuvante/IO‑geprägte Setting (Blick auf 2030); 304 ist eine große randomisierte non‑clear cell‑Studie versus SUTENT; STELLAR‑303 (CRC) zeigte OS‑Vorteil.
- PK/Vorteil: Zanza hat eine kürzere Halbwertszeit (<24 Stunden vs. cabozantinib ~4 Tage) — bessere Titrierbarkeit, schnelleres Re‑challenge und einfacherere Kombinationen.
- Partnerschaft: Enge Kollaboration mit Merck, Co‑Funding und gemeinsame Phase‑III‑Pläne; Merck steuert weitere Studienstrategien.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Management nennt LITESPARK‑011‑Resultate erwartbar und potenziell klinisch limitiert (keine OS‑Sig). Top‑Line für zanza+nivolumab in non‑clear cell wird Mitte 2026 erwartet. STELLAR‑303 bringt CRC‑Wirkung mit OS‑Vorteil; PDUFA für CRC‑Zulassung im Dezember. 2026‑Guidance: +10–12% YoY.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- RCC Sequenz: Wie beeinflusst LITESPARK‑011 die Reihenfolge (Kombination vs. Sequenz)? Management sieht Sequenzierung als wahrscheinlicher und begrenzten Umsatzimpact.
- Toxizität: Fokus auf Lebensqualität: erhöhte Hypoxie und kardiale AEs, ~20% Abbruchrate in der Kombination; Titrierbarkeit von zanza als Gegenargument.
- Studienzeitplan: Nachfrage nach Timing weiterer Merck‑geführter Phase‑III‑Ankündigungen und Verlässlichkeit der Mid‑2026‑Readouts.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Kurzfristig geringe negative Relevanz durch belzutifan‑Kombination; mittelfristig steht der Unternehmenswert und das Wachstum auf den Daten und Genehmigungen von zanza (CRC PDUFA, non‑clear cell, LITESPARK‑33). Wichtige Überwachungspunkte: Mid‑2026‑Readouts, toxizitätsprofile und Kommerzialisierung nach PDUFA.
Exelixis, Inc. — TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
1. Question Answer
Good afternoon, everybody, and thank you once again for joining us for the 46th Annual TD Cowen Healthcare Conference. I'm Yaron Werber from the biotech team, and it's a great pleasure to moderate the next fireside chat with Mike Morrissey, CEO and President of Exelixis. Mike, good to see you.
Good to see you. Great to be back. Another one, it's March, must be common, right?
March -- and thank God, it's not, but it's not snowing. Thank God.
We'll talk about the weather later.
Exactly. So maybe a lot going on. Do you want to maybe say a few opening remarks?
I would love to. Yes, before I begin, I'll just say that we'll be making forward-looking statements. So please see our SEC filings for a description of the risks that we face in our business. Yes, look, we're Exelixis commercial stage, oncology-focused, again, commercially oriented, franchise-oriented biotech company. We've been around for a while. We have, I think, hit our stride in the area of building franchises. And certainly, with cabozantinib, we have the first one under our belt and looking to do more with the pipeline.
We had an R&D Day in December where we spent a couple of hours talking about what we're looking to do to build a pipeline of franchises and how we think about franchises in multiple dimensions to be able to -- whatever we do, always improve standard of care for patients with cancer, first and foremost, and then move the needle for all of our stakeholders in terms of building global franchises that can really take cancer care to the next level. So we're doing that with cabo, hoping to do that with zanza, have a pipeline of early-stage assets that are really exciting, and I'm sure we'll cover all that today.
Yes. And if anybody has any questions at any point, just feel free to raise your hand. So let's start. We're all fresh out of ASCO GU and lots going on with -- this is -- RCC is an important market, and obviously, some other people have taken notice. Merck just released their LITESPARK-011 data in second-line testing [indiscernible] head-to-head against cabo. And we are waiting for LITESPARK-021, potentially data by year-end testing, there's another drug, but the important one is pembro [indiscernible] Lenvima against pembro Leni in frontline. And so -- and that's a PFS study with, I believe, survival [indiscernible]. So what was the impression of LITESPARK-011 and kind of...
Yes, sure. Let's talk about...
Is it going to find a role?
Yes. Let's talk about all that. So first kind of foundational statement, statement of the obvious, right? Oncology is hypercompetitive. We not only acknowledge that, but we've reveled in that over the years. If you go back and look at how cabo has maneuvered multiple indications since the first launch in second-line RCC based on METEOR, we've got 8 indications in our label, monotherapy combination, GU, GI, blah, blah, blah. So we're -- we acknowledge, we understand that this is a highly, highly, highly competitive space. It always has been. And our job is to navigate that by making sure we bring the best drugs forward, the best combinations forward to, again, singular focus on improving standard of care for patients with cancer.
So cabo is the leader, leading TKI in RCC in general, but certainly in the second line and the first line TKI IO category as well, so we are super proud of that and looking to extend that as we go forward with cabo and then be able to transfer that over to zanza. Cabo as we talking about today and over the last couple of months the dominant TKI in the 20s and our goal to make zanza the dominant TKI in the 30s, right. So the data this weekend from 11 to be frank, kind of, met our expectations, we thought we would win on PFS, not surprised by the data at all.
If you look at the data for cabo, the contemporary data for cabo from CONTACT-03 from the control arm of 11, you add that to belzutifan from 05, you would expect 15, 16 months of PFS, and I think they saw 14.5 or whatever that was. So not all that surprising. Survival isn't significant. We'll see if it crosses that threshold or not. Tolerability, safety, I think that was hit a little bit at the meeting, I think probably underappreciated some of the complications there. I think you can probably -- I don't want to speak for Merck, but you can probably infer from that data why we and they think zanz belz's combination looks potentially pretty exciting. Yes. So look, does that gain -- does that combination gain market share? We'll see. We're not really concerned about that because, again, all of our modeling kind of assumed this outcome. We're confident based on all the market research that if we lose anything second line, we'll gain that back first line because of cabo's just superior activity as a single agent, a lot of docs actually reserve it for second line. So they choose not to use it first line in combination with nivo. So there's a reason to change that dynamic that actually works for us. So we'll see.
So in some ways, it's another day at the office, and we're excited to be able to keep our eye on the ball with cabo in all the indications, but certainly RCC and NET. And then this is the transitional year for zanza, where zanza filing is in, review is going well. We expect that will continue to be the case, and we're hoping to launch end of the year. And then we have a full suite of pivotal trials either ongoing or planned to start this year and the next wave coming. So that Exelixis story is really evolving from a singular focus on cabo to this broader focus on zanza and then the pipeline.
Yes. When -- so their p-value on the second for survival with a hazard ratio of 0.85 was 0.0608, something like that. But the alpha was 0.0245, and this is the interim. From IA1, the hazard ratio was 0.9...
Got all the stuff down, that's good...
Can they really even get that? Because it's...
I don't want to speculate. I mean -- how many events do they have left remaining? Do they over whatever. So I don't -- again, I don't want to get into that level of speculation. The feedback that we've gotten before the meeting, during the meeting, literally after the meeting, it's a classic question of is it better to combine early, kind of take all your shots upfront or sequence, right? And that's a question throughout oncology and the data really has to drive that, right?
One of the things that we've heard a lot about belzutifan, which kind of makes sense is that docs like to use that a little bit later because it gives the patients a break from some of this long-term cumulative TKI tox. So if you think about it from the standpoint of somebody -- a renal patient has been, whether it's IO/IO or IO/TKI and then a TKI afterwards, I mean, they've probably been on drug for a couple of years probably. And there is this long-term chronic exposure tox that kind of creeps in. So I've heard numerous docs say, I like using belz a little bit later because it gives them a break from that. And they can go back to a TKI afterwards if they need to, right?
So again, everybody is different. You've got the academics who are a little bit more aggressive. You've got the community docs who have a different mindset sometimes. So we're here to help patients with cancer. Certainly, kidney cancer is where our main focus is. We have very, very strong growth over the years. If you think about what we've done since we launched 9ER, we've essentially tripled revenues on the back of that data. We're excited about NET. And then there's this whole landscape ahead of us, this whiteboard of open space for zanza, colon, meningioma, potentially other tumor types that we're going to certainly want to explore as we go forward if the data continues to look good, that gives us a lot of opportunities there to build that, too.
Yes. Okay. So let's move to LITESPARK-033, the zanza [indiscernible] combo against -- I'm sorry, zanza [indiscernible] against cabo and the post-adjuvant...
I never heard Welly before either -- that's -- you should trademark that one.
Because you say belz...
Belz, yes...
Okay, I'll call it belz...
Either way...
So that's essentially post-cabo -- sorry, postadjuvant IO. So this is a frontline regimen essentially, but it's cabo mono is that relevant? And I imagine it's one study as part of -- I imagine it's a [indiscernible] right? So there's going to be probably another study. that is being planned with Merck in frontline. I imagine it's going to be a triple. So is the gating factor waiting to figure out the dose to then start the second study or maybe to zoom out what's the strategy for this combo in frontline for it to be competitive?
Yes. So I would say a couple of things. Merck will talk about the details of the second study when that starts. We've agreed that they're going to kind of control the narrative there, and I don't want to disrespect that agreement. So I'll leave that there. There's been a narrative that it might not start based whatever because of the light sparkle, [indiscernible], that's just complete hogwash. okay? That study to all knowledge I have, which is as recent as last week, Friday is basically it's planned to start. So details...
Starting early in the year.
Whenever. I'm not going to comment on timing, but it's just again...
That was the guidance, right?
Yes. Okay. Yes. Just stay tuned on that, okay. The other thing I would say is -- and this is really important, is you got to think about the next wave of studies, not in the context of 2025 and 2026, but in the context of the 2030. The question that we talk about a lot and we think about a lot is how will standard of care evolve over the next 5, 10 years because if you're aiming for what the target is today and things change over even a reasonably short time frame, then you're going to miss the mark, you're not going to be relevant.
So we think the adjuvant setting in all tumor types, but certainly renal is ground for a lot of important improvements and a lot of important advances and to have a molecule in a combination like [ ZanzaBells ] that has the ability then to play in early makes a lot sense. So that is one approach, right? You think about what we're doing in renal, we've got basically [ 304 ] and then on [indiscernible] that should read out midyear, plus or minus. And then excuse me, then 2 Merck studies that's just the first stake in the ground, if you will, right?
We're really excited about being able to pair [indiscernible] with orthogonal MOAs right, that allow us the opportunity to really see synergy across the continuum of RCC patients, right? If you look at -- if you look at the VEGF [indiscernible], that's all one pathway. The biochemistry is intimately related. One regulates the other, and that's been known for years, right?
So you want -- again, doubling down there makes sense, but there's a trade-off in terms of additional efficacy versus safety. We're much more interested in asking the question. Are there other pathways in specialties -- and importantly, other bispecifics that we can combine Xansa with that give us more breadth of coverage biochemically and from a target pathway point of view, that could lead to better efficacy. Because for us, the name of the game is, again, improving standard of care. And you can only do that if you're taking kind of [indiscernible] goal -- so we're excited about that. It's early look at what you've got here, it's like with colon and net it's just the beginning. It's not the end all, it's just the start.
Yes. Is it possible that the Merck second study is in the adjuvant center?
I'm not going to talk about the second study. They'll talk about that at the appropriate time.
If I'm thought that collaboration was for metastatic, but maybe which is broadly [indiscernible].
[indiscernible] okay. .
Okay. Key maker is testing several different things. Can you talk about the key maker-U03 and where [indiscernible] in there?
Not much to say there. I think that's their basket. Again, you should ask them, not more than me. I think that's their basket study where they've looked at different combinations, and we're certainly using that to do dose range finding, part of the Xansa Bell's run up into pivotal. So...
Yes. But that's only has [indiscernible], right? No other...
Right now, it's just [indiscernible].
I'm just kind of reading between the lines, I mean, to your point, I don't see a triple coming down, but we'll see with pembro.
Yes. Again, I don't want to get into the details that we haven't talked about previously. There's -- question is again, broadly speaking, how do you define a triple? Is it 3 agents? Or is it 3 targets [indiscernible] so stay tuned.
Okay. Got it. Any questions from the audience? Can we talk about maybe just a little bit of the dynamics right now. I'm going to now go back a little bit commercially and talk about Q4 and the guidance for the year. So in the guidance for the year of [indiscernible] in Q4, you saw nice growth in that. There's always some lumpiness in gross to net ordering patterns and quarter-over-quarter RCC growth. It looks like the tailwind in that quarter was a net continues to grow really nicely. So as you think about fiscal year '26 and the guidance for [indiscernible], revenue guidance was about up 9% to 13% year-over-year. What's driving that? And what do you expect [indiscernible].
Both in the base business and in net. We haven't broken that out for obvious competitive reasons. We expect both to grow in '26. We had a strong year in '25, right? Revenues were up, I want to say I'm looking at Chris 17% year-over-year, demand was up 15%. So very small impact of growth on -- from price. And that is -- part of that was net. We did about $100 million, a little bit more than $100 million in net in 2025. And the rest was solid growth in the base business.
So now quarter-to-quarter, it's choppy. We had a really strong Q3, a little bit lighter Q4, all the gross-to-net issues. So nobody should be looking with that much precision quarter-to-quarter since it's just lumpy and choppy, but we had a great year last year, and the transition from '25 to '26, we talked about muscling up more on the GI side at the end of last year. That's now done. We've got a full complement of our kind of field-based reps for the GI sales team in place today that complements the full field force we have in GU.
So I mean, the mission there is to obviously, get the terminal velocity with net for cabo as soon as possible so that end of the year, whenever the approval comes for [indiscernible] and CRC, we can put our attention there. So we want to be able to, again, sequence and focus and deliver. The CRC opportunity is huge for us. It's a big population. A medical need is high, lots of interest in the Xansa atezo combination. Again, as we talked about previously. This is the first time a checkpoint containing regimen has actually worked.
And third line plus non-MSI-high CRC after 4 failures with other checkpoint [indiscernible]. So again, [indiscernible] seems to be the special sauce there. And we [indiscernible] ITT population. Non-liver met should read out, again, midyear, plus or minus. So ideally, things work out to have that whole kind of data set in the mix for a launch, it would be great, right? It would be a great way to get out of the gate strong. And it's a big opportunity. And with the post-adjuvant trial that we're now planning to do with Natera that I'm sure we'll talk about later.
I mean the buzz around Xansa CRC is really high, 303 and 316 play off each other. We talk to [indiscernible] they bring up the other in vice versa. So it's a great setup for what we think could be a really strong new franchise in CRC for [indiscernible].
Yes. So net did about $100 million in year 1. The market opportunity we thought can even be sort of $500 million to $1 billion, right? So the path ahead to getting there it sounds like you're mentioning that it's gotten good traction in the academic settings. Is it about moving to the community? Or what's kind of the game?
Yes. So the main focus now is to get the community uptake to be -- to match what we're seeing with the academics. And that's -- it's -- again, it's more dispersed, if you will, as it always is in the community opportunity. These patients -- this is an indolent disease, patients progress slowly. So therefore, the number of patients coming into any community site compared to some of the bigger tumor types is less. So you just need more face time, more nonpersonal promotion, more alerts, if you will, about what the data is and why they want to use it, right?
So -- and that's all -- we've had this issue -- we had this issue with cabo in RCC back in 2016, 2017. There are docs we had survival of second-line RCC and there were docs in the community still writing the [ Phenotym ], right? Because they just it wasn't as familiar with them. So we know how to do this. We're pros at being able to kind of shift the mindset based upon high-quality data, and we're going to do that compliantly and off we go.
Okay. Maybe zanza for NCC RCC, we're expecting that data. This is STELLAR-304, right, randomized 2:1. zanza/nivo against sunitinib, primary endpoint is PFS. Data is expected midyear, I believe, right, in PFS. So cabo atezo or cabo/nivo, they showed 31% to 48% response rate, about 9.5% to 12.5% PFS. In [ PAP/MET, it's PAP/MET ], cabo alone showed about 23% ORR and about 9 months PFA.
That was single agent.
Single agent. Yes. Sunitinib did 4, just to give everybody a sense of 4% ORR and 5.6 months PFS. So pretty low and sunitinib is the comp. So if cabo/atezo or nivo/atezo comps, we're looking for a nice beat here, 30% to 40% ORR, 10 to 12, 10 to 13 months PFS, almost doubling PFS. Is that sort of what -- the way you're looking at the world for that study?
Yes. I guess I would frame it more of the comps in clear cell, right, and trying to recapitulate what we see in clear cell in this first, again, never been -- there's no existing pivotal trial in non-clear cell RCC to put a stake in the ground, have Level 1 evidence would be fantastic, right? So a win is a win. We'd love to be able to get the trifecta here like we saw with 9ER and Media or everything else where you've got PFS survival and response rate all going in the right direction. And that's the way to capture people's attention and to bring that standard of care up to par.
So yes, so we're all in there. I mean it's -- again, it's the first stake in the ground for RCC. It's 15%, 20% of the overall market. And there's a lot more coming. Again, I'm not sure we're going to invest more in non-clear cell, but from the standpoint of being able, again, to look at orthogonal MOAs combined with zanza in a way that we can move the needle early in the treatment paradigm is the way to go with an eye for the 30s, not so much the 20s.
Right. Okay. But you're thinking clear cell-like data, the clear cell-like data would be even higher than the data I quoted.
Yes, I think we have to aim high. I mean we're going to get what we get. So it's just a matter of the more data we have that is compelling around the efficacy and safety endpoints, the better statement of the obvious.
Yes. Okay. So now going back to CRC with zanza, so back to STELLAR-303, and we're waiting for the non-liver mets midyear. So NLM originally outperforms the ITT. So is the hope here for stat significant survival benefit in that subset? Is it possible?
Well, that's the whole goal, Yes, for sure. And that's ideally what we would like to have. We have a win in the ITT population to be able to -- and we have a clear win statistically in the liver met population, right? So can we round that out with a statistically significant improvement in OS for the non-liver mets. That's the question, right? So to be able to have all 3.
I mean you think about what that -- again, if we were able to achieve that and we get approved on that and all the caveats, but that's a pretty strong way to market the drug to physicians, prescribers and ultimately, their patients who are asking upfront, why can't I get a checkpoint containing regimen for my disease, right?
So again, we always do the right thing. We always play by the rules, all that stuff. But I mean, that's the goal is to be able to have -- if it's there to have that offering to provide that. And I think that's a pretty compelling data set, right? There are obviously, all the chatter last fall. I mean that in some ways, I think the background noise has dissipated. The unmet medical need is there. The interest in this kind of regimen is growing with time. The idea that we're going to reinvest in CRC and 316 in this post-adjuvant study, just raises, I think, the level of enthusiasm for zanza here as well. So I think it's going together really, really well, and the team is executing at a very, very high level, and I'm really excited and proud of them for what they're doing right now.
The PDUFA is December 3, I was sort of hoping to get more of a priority review. I mean there is...
Sorry, I didn't deliver on that one. It's kind of my...
Why -- what's going on with FDA...
I wouldn't want to speculate on that. We've had great collaboration with them, great discussions with them. They have to make the call. I'm not privy to how they decide this kind of stuff. That's -- I'm happy to engage and however they want to engage and we'll get that done.
Okay. Is it that they felt that there's other regimens in that area?
I wouldn't want to speak to them.
Okay. Any questions from anyone? Maybe just before we go into the rest of the pipeline, stock buybacks. So as we look at your cash flow, it's going to accelerate in the future. I think you've been doing, let's say, right now about $750 million a year or so. We think that could accelerate...
If you look at our guidance, right, probably should, right?
And we should expect the same sort of cadence consistently? Because I mean the stock has been kind of -- it's not like the stock is diving down, you can go...
So look, our whole -- not just philosophy, but how we've executed on capital allocation is pretty simple, right? We want to invest the right amount of money in the internal pipeline development, and that's having the right level of stringency and prioritization around where we invest and where we don't. And we've done that historically I mean, going back to 2010, how we've done that. We basically killed everything in 2010 to focus on cabo and focus some more on cabo and then just kind of turn the corner in terms of once we had a signal.
So I think we do that pretty well, and I think the whole management team is very, very aligned with making the right hard decisions about go-no-gos and about where we invest and where we double down based upon the data that we have versus where we pull back. So that will continue. But we're spending in $900 million to $1 billion a year in R&D. That feels about right. And then we have to make the best of that, right, in terms of where we prioritize and how we set.
BD is absolutely critical, and I've talked about this publicly in terms of how we're looking for kind of later-stage assets. Early stage pipeline is full. We don't need to add more there, but later-stage assets that are either in pivotal trials or ready for pivotal trials is our sweet spot, and we're focused on that. M&A is unlikely. But the right BD back-end loaded pay-for-success kind of deals we think makes a lot of sense, and that will continue to go.
And then, look, we -- our buybacks aren't just there to spend money. We're investing in a company that we really believe in that we understand, I think, better than anybody else, and we think is significantly undervalued. So why wouldn't we buy back our shares if we think the future value is much greater than is perceived with present share price. And I think we -- as I think Chris has said numerous times today, over the last couple of years, we've spent -- we bought back $2.2 billion of shares -- 77 million shares. At some point in time, if we're successful, we're going to be an EPS company. So the more we can pull that float down, the more that's going to help us on the EPS side in the future.
And if [indiscernible] like we think we will, -- we get another molecule that can become a franchise, get the third [indiscernible] franchise, then we're going to be in that rarefied air, where our success is looked at purely through the lens of EPS. So then the more shares we pull off the table now when it's cheap, the better. So that's the plan.
The third orthogonal mechanism, is that something from the outside? Or is that something internal?
Either one, we're looking for this next -- the next franchise needs to stand up like cabo did like answered say, "Hey, super active. invest in me, right? So we like 628, the PD-L1NKGA2 bispecific, 371 is a tissue factor targeting ADC with a topo ligand that's designed literally specifically for CRC. So again, you can imagine things going in different directions. [indiscernible] I mean, the next wave of opportunities for pivotal trials where we think -- and we've gotten a lot of feedback from KOLs that the tolerability profile is such with [indiscernible] that it might be the TKI that combine with actual chemotherapy. So we're looking at Xansa say, docetaxel combinations starting in prostate cancer to ask the question since no one seems to be able to beat dose in prostate or lung could you combine a concrete.
We need early data and everything else. But I think it's a very intriguing way. You can see if there's success there, what that could do to revenues. If you can play the second-line prostate second-line lung and really Yes, it's huge, right? So lots of options, but the focus is pipeline franchise molecules. That's the how we look at that lens of single compound, single indication just doesn't really appeal to us because it just doesn't make sense relative to how we can maneuver and really build this outsized success.
Yes. Well, terrific. I think we're at time. Excellent. Mike, thanks so much for coming.
Great to be here again.
Nice to see you.
Nice to see you. Thank you.
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Exelixis, Inc. — TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
Exelixis, Inc. — TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: CEO Mike Morrissey stellt Exelixis als kommerziell erfolgreiches, onkologisch fokussiertes Unternehmen dar: Ausbau der Franchise von cabo (Cabozantinib) hin zu zanza als nächster Franchise‑Treiber; Pipeline- und Partnerschaftsstrategie bleibt priorisiert auf Franchise-bildende Assets.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Franchise-Transition: Cabo bleibt Kernumsatztreiber; Ziel ist, zanza als dominanten TKI (Tyrosinkinase‑Inhibitor) der „30er“-Dekade zu etablieren.
- Indikationsfokus: Priorität auf Nierenzellkarzinom (RCC), Kolorektalkarzinom (CRC) und neuroendokrine Tumoren (NET); mehrere STELLAR-Studien liefern midyear Readouts.
- Kapitalallokation: R&D (Forschung & Entwicklung) ~ $900M–$1B/Jahr; Fokus auf spätere, pivotal‑nahe BD‑Deals; Aktienrückkäufe als Wertschöpfungshebel (historisch $2.2Mrd zurückgekauft).
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Zulassung & Timing: Zanza‑Review läuft; CEO erwartet einen Launch Ende des Jahres; PDUFA‑Datum wurde im Gespräch mit „December 3“ genannt.
- Studien‑Readouts: STELLAR-304 (NCC RCC) und STELLAR-303/316 (CRC) mit wichtigen Midyear‑Datumsangaben, Non‑liver‑mets‑Subset erwartet midyear.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Wettbewerb Merck: LITESPARK‑011 traf Erwartungen (PFS‑Vorteil, kein klarer OS‑Signifikanz); Exelixis sieht Sequenzierungs‑ vs. Kombinations‑Debatte und bleibt optimistisch.
- Kommerz und Adoption: Quartals‑Volatilität durch Gross‑to‑Net; Fokus auf Community‑Adoption (vs. Akademien) für net und CRC‑Uptake.
- Kapitalstrategie: Management verteidigt Buybacks, sieht weitere Opportunitäten durch BD statt großer M&A; M&A „unwahrscheinlich“.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Das Fireside Chat bestätigt die strategische Shift‑Story: Exelixis will von einem cabo‑getriebenen Unternehmen zu einer Multi‑Franchise‑Plattform mit zanza und weiteren Assets wachsen. Kurzfristig sind kommerzielle Dynamik und kommende Midyear‑Readouts entscheidend; langfristig hängt der Upside von Zulassungen, Community‑Durchdringung und erfolgreicher BD‑Execution ab.
Exelixis, Inc. — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Exelixis Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. My name is [ Towanda ], and I'll be your operator for today. As a reminder, this call is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to your host for today, Mr. Andrew Peters, Senior Vice President of Strategy and Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Thank you, [ Towanda ], and thank you all for joining us for the Exelixis Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining me on today's call are Mike Morrissey, our President and CEO; Chris Senner, our Chief Financial Officer; Dana Aftab, our Executive Vice President of Research and Development; and P.J. Haley, our Executive Vice President of Commercial, who will review our progress for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 ended December 31, 2025.
During the call today, we will refer to financial measures not calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles. Please refer to today's press release, which is posted on our website for an explanation of our reasons for using such non-GAAP measures as well as tables deriving these measures from our GAAP results. During the course of this presentation, we will be making forward-looking statements regarding future events and the future performance of the company. This includes statements about possible developments regarding discovery, product development, regulatory, commercial, financial and strategic matters, potential growth opportunities and government drug pricing policies and initiatives.
Actual events or results could, of course, differ materially. We refer you to the documents we file from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which under the heading Risk Factors, identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed by the company verbally and in writing today, including, without limitation, risks and uncertainties related to product commercial success, market competition, regulatory review and approval processes, conducting clinical trials, compliance with applicable regulatory requirements, our dependence on collaboration partners and the level of costs associated with discovery, product development, business development and commercialization activities. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.
All right. Thank you, Andrew, and thanks to everyone for joining us on the call today. 2025 was a transformational year for Exelixis with strong growth across all components of our business. We expect to build on this momentum in 2026 and have already made significant progress during a very busy January. Critically, and we'll emphasize this here and throughout the call, Exelixis has a singular focus to build a multi-franchise business in solid tumor oncology based on the foundation of cabozantinib, the potential of zanzalintinib and the depth of our early-stage pipeline.
As outlined at our December R&D Day, our strategy to build a pipeline of franchises in solid tumor oncology covers 3 critical dimensions: products, tumor indications and modalities, and is based on current Exelixis leadership in GU oncology and our aspirational goal to expand our leadership in GI indications with equal intensity and potential upside. The Exelixis strategy for product, tumor and modality franchises provides the framework to drive both the growth of any overall market we choose to pursue and the potential to capture a greater share of the commercial opportunity with multiple entry points.
Our operational model to establish, expand and entrench any given franchise highlights the potential value for all our stakeholders. Importantly, the progress we have made over the last 12 months as well as our expectations for 2026 and beyond are well aligned with this franchise-focused approach. With that context in place, we outlined important news and priorities to kick off 2026 at our corporate update in January at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference. I won't reiterate everything here today, but just focus on the top highlights, including: first, we saw continued strong performance of the cabozantinib business in the fourth quarter and full year 2025.
CABOMETYX maintained its position as the leading TKI for RCC and the market leader for neuroendocrine tumors in the oral second-line plus segment. Full year 2025 U.S. cabo franchise net product revenues grew 17% to approximately $2.12 billion compared to full year 2024. Fourth quarter 2025 U.S. cabo franchise net product revenues grew 6% year-over-year to $547 million compared to the fourth quarter -- continuing its role as a worldwide leading TKI, global cabo franchise net product revenues generated by Exelixis and its partners were approximately $754 million and $2.89 billion in the fourth quarter and full year 2025, respectively.
Importantly, cabo's U.S. net product revenues exceeded $100 million for the neuroendocrine tumor indication in 2025. Second, we're excited to accelerate zanza as our next potential oncology franchise opportunity in 2026 with the recently announced acceptance of our NDA for the zanza/atezo combination in third-line plus CRC based upon the STELLAR-303 data. The entire organization is rallying around this important 2026 milestone, and we've taken decisive steps to fortify our commercial footprint to maximize the impact of potentially launching 2 drugs in different indications in successive years.
Notably, we've expedited the build-out of our GI sales team in January with the focus to accelerate the growth of the CABOMETYX neuroendocrine tumor opportunity before zanza could come online for CRC later in the year. We think this enhancement could be an important component of our growth narrative in the near term and speaks to the confidence we have in both cabo and zanza as we move into 2026.
Third, zanzalintinib is rapidly advancing as our next franchise opportunity with 7 ongoing and soon to start pivotal trials, along with a variety of important trial concepts under consideration as potential -- as a potential next wave of pivotal trials. We continue to prioritize zanza, both as a monotherapy and in combinations for existing and new indications as an expeditious path to a second Exelixis oncology franchise. Importantly, we're excited by the level of interest in new clinical collaborations for zanza from the JPM meeting that could expand the breadth and depth of our zanza pivotal trial efforts to potentially define new standards of care for patients with cancer.
Fourth, as we highlighted at our R&D Day in December, our Exelixis IND pipeline is full for the next several years with potential first-in-class and/or best-in-class molecules demonstrating differentiating activity based on extensive preclinical testing. All our efforts are focused on identifying the next clinical asset we can move into full development as another potential Exelixis franchise opportunity. Dana will summarize our status today at a high level, and I refer you back to the replay of our R&D Day to dive into the details for zanza and the rest of our pipeline.
Finally, business development activities continue to focus on late-stage assets in the GU and GI space. We're pursuing back-end loaded pay-for-success transactions that fit into our oncology franchise framework as a top priority. In terms of capital allocation, we're confident we have the balance sheet and expected free cash flows to advance our pipeline priorities, access new molecules from external sources when appropriate and continue our share repurchase program when we believe our shares are undervalued. With that, please see our press release issued an hour ago for our fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results and an extensive list of key corporate milestones achieved in the quarter. I will now turn the call over to Chris.
Thanks, Mike. For the fourth quarter of 2025, the company reported total revenues of approximately $599 million, which included cabozantinib franchise net product revenues of $546.6 million. CABOMETYX net product revenues were $544.7 million. Gross to net for the cabozantinib franchise in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 28.5%, which is lower than the gross to net we experienced in the third quarter of 2025.
This decrease in gross to net deductions in the fourth quarter of 2025 is primarily related to lower PHS and 340B volume when compared to the third quarter of 2025. Additionally, we estimate that our gross to net for the full year 2026 will be between 31% and 32%. As previously disclosed, Exelixis has been designated as specified small manufacturer, which requires Exelixis to pay a 2% discount in 2026 on all Medicare Part D sales and is included in our gross to net estimate for the year. Our CABOMETYX trade inventory was slightly higher at 2.2 weeks on hand at the end of the year when compared to the third quarter of 2025.
Total revenues in the fourth quarter of 2025 also includes approximately $52.8 million in royalties earned from our partners, Ipsen and Takeda on their sales of cabozantinib. Our total operating expenses, excluding restructuring expenses for the fourth quarter 2025 were approximately $363 million compared to $341 million in the third quarter of 2025. The sequential increase in these operating expenses was primarily driven by higher manufacturing costs for drug development candidates, NDA filing fees, personnel expenses and higher marketing expenses, offset by lower stock-based compensation in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Provision for income taxes for the fourth quarter of 2025 was approximately $8.2 million compared to a provision for income taxes of approximately $58.8 million for the third quarter of 2025. This decrease in tax provisions was related to items that were recognized in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company reported GAAP net income of approximately $244.5 million or $0.92 per share basic and $0.88 per share diluted for the fourth quarter of 2025. The company also reported a non-GAAP net income of approximately $259.5 million or $0.97 per share basic and $0.94 per share diluted. Non-GAAP net income excludes the impact of approximately $15 million of stock-based compensation expense net of the related income tax effect.
Cash and marketable securities for the year ended December 31, 2025, was approximately $1.66 billion. During fiscal year 2025, we repurchased $954 million of the company's outstanding common stock, resulting in the retirement of approximately 24 million shares of the company's outstanding common stock at an average price per share of $39.61. As of the end of fiscal year 2025, we had approximately $590 million remaining under the $750 million stock repurchase plan authorized by the company's Board in October 2025. And finally, turning to our financial guidance for the full year 2026. We announced our 2026 financial guidance during the JPMorgan conference in January, which is detailed on Slide 19 of our earnings presentation. And with that, I'll turn the call over to P.J.
Thank you, Chris. The CABOMETYX business remained strong in the fourth quarter of 2025. The team continued to execute at an extremely high level, CABOMETYX continuing to be the #1 prescribed TKI in renal cell carcinoma, the #1 TKI plus IO combination in first-line RCC and the #1 oral agent in second-line plus neuroendocrine tumors. This is an exciting time for the team with zanzalintinib on the horizon as we prepare to launch our next franchise molecule, which would also expand the Exelixis GI franchise.
The prescription data in the oral TKI market basket of cabo, lenvatinib, axitinib, sunitinib and pazopanib convey the strength of cabo relative to the competition. Looking at the TRx comparison of Q4 2024 to Q4 2025, CABOMETYX grew 3 share points from 43% to 46%. And importantly, CABOMETYX TRx volume grew 15% in Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024, outpacing the growth rate of the market basket, which was 7% for the same period.
Physicians are responding positively to the broad net label and the contemporary trial design and perceive the efficacy and tolerability of cabo as favorable relative to other small molecule therapies in the space. Prescribers are using cabo broadly across patient and tumor characteristics, including patients with neuroendocrine tumors arising in the pancreas, GI tract and lung across all tumor grades, functional and SSTR status and those who have received prior treatment with Lutathera.
Turning to new patient market share for second-line plus neuroendocrine tumors in Q4. We're pleased that CABOMETYX remains the market leader in the oral therapy segment. And additionally, our research indicates that there is opportunity to continue to grow market share, particularly in the community. As Mike highlighted, cabo 2025 revenue in neuroendocrine tumors exceeded $100 million, and the team is fully engaged on driving growth in this indication in 2026 with a strong focus on the community setting. For that reason, we are pleased that we have completed the expansion of our GI sales team, which will yield greater reach into the community in order to continue to grow net market share for CABOMETYX.
Our new representatives join us with significant oncology sales experience, particularly in colorectal cancer and GI oncology. We are excited to have them hit the ground running. Importantly, the expanded team will be able to gain valuable experience selling cabo before we turn our focus to the potential launch of zanzalintinib in colorectal cancer. We're thinking about building on and expanding our GI franchise, we are thrilled with the results of STELLAR-303 and a PDUFA date set for later this year.
Pending regulatory approval, we believe that these data would provide Exelixis with a compelling commercial opportunity in 1 of the big 4 tumors. Our market research and advisory boards demonstrate positive feedback and excitement for the STELLAR-303 data. Physicians reiterate the significant unmet medical need for patients in the third-line plus CRC setting and are excited for the potential to have an ICI option available for the broader population of CRC patients.
In closing, we are pleased with the growth of the cabo business, both in RCC and mets. In neuroendocrine tumors, prescribers see CABOMETYX a more favorable choice versus other previously approved generic small molecule therapies. Simultaneously, our internal team is in full launch preparation for zanza and the excitement around these efforts is palpable. We look forward to the opportunity to launch the next Exelixis franchise later in the year to be able to help appropriate patients with colorectal cancer. Beyond STELLAR-303, we are enthusiastic about the significant development plan for zanza, which could position the zanza franchise to far exceed cabo in terms of the number of patients that could be impacted across tumor types and settings. And with that, I will turn the call over to Dana.
Thanks, P.J. Our strategy in R&D is on building franchises in key solid tumor indications, and we continue to be focused on maximizing our productivity with disciplined investment in high-value opportunities for our portfolio. Zanza is clearly our next big franchise opportunity with 7 ongoing or planned pivotal studies. So my update today will be focused mostly on zanza, but I'll also touch on our earlier-stage pipeline of small molecules and biotherapeutics.
As Mike mentioned earlier, the FDA accepted our new drug application submission for zanza with a PDUFA target action date of December 3 this year. The NDA is based on the results from the STELLAR-303 trial comparing the combination of zanza plus atezolizumab versus regorafenib in patients with non-microsatellite instability high colorectal cancer who had received multiple prior therapies. As a quick reminder, the trial has dual primary endpoints designed to assess survival outcomes, more specifically in the population of patients without liver metastases, which we refer to as the NLM patients or population and more broadly in the intention to treat or ITT population, which includes patients both with and without liver metastases.
The study met one of its dual primary endpoints, demonstrating a 20% reduction in the risk of death with the combination in the broader ITT population at the final analysis, while data pertaining to the other dual primary endpoint of overall survival in the NLM population showed a trend in overall survival favoring the combination. The NLM data were immature at the data cutoff, and the trial has been proceeding to the planned final analysis for this endpoint, and we expect to have those top line results around the middle of this year.
Needless to say, we are very excited about engaging with regulators on this first NDA for zanza in combination with atezo, which, if approved, could potentially become a new standard of care for CRC patients who have received multiple prior therapies. We believe that the STELLAR-303 results demonstrate clear clinical differentiation of zanza from other TKIs and IO combination partners investigated in this space and that zanza's differentiated mechanism of action, including inhibition of the TAM kinases and MET is a key factor in this clinical differentiation and underscores zanza's franchise potential.
As a next step toward realizing that potential, our team is highly focused on investigating zanza in an earlier setting in patients with colorectal cancer. To that end, we're planning to initiate the STELLAR-316 trial this year in patients with colorectal cancer who are positive for molecular residual disease, or MRD, after completing definitive therapy. By definitive therapy, we mean rectal cancer patients who have been treated with total neoadjuvant therapy followed by surgery or colon cancer patients who had surgery followed by adjuvant chemotherapy. About 20% of patients are MRD-positive following definitive therapy. And these patients typically have a poor prognosis with median disease-free survival times in the 6- to 8-month time frame.
Critically, these patients have no therapeutic options that have been shown in a Phase III trial to prevent or delay metastatic progression of their disease. Thus, this represents a significant opportunity in the colorectal cancer landscape. In STELLAR-316, MRD will be determined with the Signatera circulating tumor DNA test, and we are very excited to be working with Natera as our diagnostic partner in this endeavor. Their commercial test is very extensively utilized in this setting and their database built from testing thousands of patients each year gives us incredible insight and clarity regarding patient demographics and outcomes.
Some of the primary hurdles in Phase III trial execution are around site performance and patient recruitment, but we now have information from our partner that should help us focus on prioritizing activation of clinical trial sites that are already known to have the highest cadence of testing and the highest numbers of eligible patients. Thus, once STELLAR-316 is initiated around midyear, we expect enrollment to be quite brisk. Moving on to other trials. STELLAR-201 is a single-arm Phase II trial designed to evaluate zanza in patients with recurrent meningioma, and we expect that trial to initiate around the middle of this year. STELLAR-311 is our Phase III trial evaluating zanza compared to everolimus as an initial oral therapy in patients with neuroendocrine tumors.
That study was initiated last year and is proceeding on schedule. And STELLAR-304 is our pivotal trial evaluating the combination of zanza plus nivolumab versus sunitinib in patients with locally advanced or metastatic non-clear cell renal cell carcinoma. We expect top line results from STELLAR-304 around midyear. And if positive, those results could lead to our second NDA filing for zanza. Finally, progress continues with regard to the Phase II umbrella study being conducted by Merck in which the combination of zanza plus belzutifan is being evaluated in patients with previously treated metastatic RCC and 2 pivotal studies that Merck is running in clear cell RCC evaluating zanza in combination with bells.
One of those pivotal studies is LITESPARK-003, which is comparing zanza plus belz versus cabo as frontline therapy for patients who received anti-PD-1 or anti-PD-L1 therapy in the adjuvant setting. And that study initiated in December last year. We will update you on the details of the other Phase III study as they become available. Given the demonstrated clinical differentiation we've seen with zanza and its potential to be the TKI of choice for combinations with immunotherapies and other mechanisms of action, we're continuing to assess the landscape of additional opportunities for zanza development.
To that end, we've engaged in discussions with potential collaborators on some exciting new combinations, and we look forward to sharing more details of these opportunities as we get closer to launching the trials. Now shifting to our early clinical pipeline. We have 4 molecules in this space that are currently in clinical development, namely XL309, XB010, XB628 and XB371. And the Phase I studies for these early molecules are progressing well.
In terms of earlier-stage development candidates, we are continuing to advance exciting new small molecule and ADC programs, and I look forward to sharing more details as these early pipeline programs advance. Our strategy with the early pipeline is focused on identifying the next potential franchise molecules beyond cabo and zanza. So we will continue our approach of getting to go/no-go decisions quickly and efficiently, leveraging our expertise to pick the winners and ultimately maximize impact for patients. So with that, I'll turn the call back over to Mike.
All right. Thanks, Dana. I'll wrap up here by thanking the entire Exelixis team for their outstanding efforts in 2025. As we reflect on the substantial progress we've made over the last 12 months, we importantly look forward to 2026 as a potentially transformational year for the company.
We will continue to execute on all cylinders with cabozantinib while also preparing for what could be our second potential franchise for zanzalintinib, all while we continue to advance our early-stage pipeline.
As always, I want to commend everyone at Exelixis for their individual and collective efforts, urgency and focus as we strive to excel on our mission to help cancer patients recover stronger and live longer. We look forward to updating you on our progress in the future. Thank you for your continued support and interest in Exelixis, and we're happy to now open the call for questions.
Our first question comes from the line of Asthika Goonewardene with Truist.
2. Question Answer
So just a technical question here on -- as you launch zanza, how long will you be able to benefit from the small manufacturer discount? And if I can sneak a quick second one in. It's nice to see the share repurchases step up in Q4. Just wondering if you can give any comments on the cadence of repurchases so far for the 6 weeks of the new year.
Yes. Asthika, it's Mike. I will take the first question, and maybe Chris can take the second one. Again, don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves with zanza. We're early in the review cycle for the process. Obviously, the small manufacturer exemptions that we have are tied to having a single product that has the majority of our revenue, and we would think that would be the case for the foreseeable future. I think the cutoff is around 20% for a second product to come into play. So I think we're okay there for a while. Obviously, it's all about the kinetics of any subsequent launch. So stay tuned on that. Still very early days. I don't want to speculate on the timing for when that could be an issue, okay? Chris?
Yes. Thanks, Mike. So Asthika, from a share repurchase perspective, as Mike mentioned in his prepared remarks, we're going to continue to do share repurchases as long as we feel like we're undervalued, and that continues today. We have $590 million left over on the most recent authorization -- $750 million authorization from the Board, and our commitment is to complete that this year.
Our next question comes from the line of Paul Choi with Goldman Sachs.
My question is just on -- can you comment on recent 340B purchasing behavior and whether you expect that channel to increase? And along with the Part D redesign, just sort of your views on how that could potentially also impact zanza as you commercialize that in '27.
Yes, Chris?
Yes. So thanks, Paul. It's Chris. From a 340B perspective, we've seen variability throughout 2025, and we're expecting variability throughout 2026. And that could have an impact on the gross to net just based on the fact that it's a heavily discounted segment of the business. And the second question was?
Yes. On the Part D redesign, P.J., do you want to address that?
Yes. I'm sorry, was it zanza? In terms of zanza, I think how we'll -- obviously, we'll be designing our channel to optimize results going forward there, having all the experience we have from cabo and being in the market for a decade. So we'll obviously look to customize that for sort of the current state of the business in the markets.
Our next question comes from the line of Silvan Tuerkcan with Citizens.
Thank you for the details on STELLAR-316. I just have a big picture question here. How big do you think this population is since it's so early in colorectal cancer? And what's the rough time line for readout here? And additionally, are there any reference trials? I know this design is very popular with immunotherapy, but for targeted therapies, I've not seen that yet.
Sure. Thanks, Silvan. This is Dana. I'll take the question. So with STELLAR-316, the population we're calculating is based on approximately 20% of the patients who've completed definitive therapy and are positive based on the ctDNA test from Natera. The data that they have and that we've gleaned from public sources and presentations indicates an opportunity of 20,000 to 25,000 or so in that range.
Our next question comes from the line of Yaron Werber with TD Cowen.
Maybe a quick question on NET. It sounds like revenues were over $100 million for the year. We kind of in the past, we thought the opportunity can reach even $500 million to $600 million, and it was sort of more than 50% of the quarter-over-quarter growth in Q2. Can you maybe just help frame what is it going to take? Do you need to move it up to get a higher share? Or sort of what's the dynamic on the market? And then secondly, just any update on when Merck will start the next study in combination with zanza?
Yes. P.J., you take the question?
Yes. Thanks for the question, Yaron. With regards to NET, we're really pleased with the start to the launch here, which I'll remind you, approval is just kind of the very end of March there at the end of Q1. So as you mentioned, we're very happy to achieve the $100 million in net revenue in 2025. It's still very early days in terms of the launch. We're very pleased that we've become the #1 oral therapy in the second-line plus neuroendocrine tumor segment. But our market research, as I mentioned, indicates that there's still plenty of room to grow there. And really, as we look at it, that's primarily in the community setting.
Our uptake has been broad across all sort of clinical features of NET, which is great. But what's exciting about having opportunity in the community setting is the fact that we've expedited and really now completed our expansion of our GI sales team to really put it on par with the size of our GU team gives us the ability to reach much further into the community and really do what we need to do to change behavior more broadly because what we see is physicians responding very favorably to the data and having positive experiences with the drug. So we just need to be in front of them so that they have the opportunity to use cabo for appropriate patients. So we're looking forward to that.
Our next question comes from the line of Akash Tewari with Jefferies.
Can you talk about why you and Merck chose to kind of run a trial like LITESPARK-033 in this post-adjuvant first-line RCC setting versus what your team did with CheckMate 9ER when you went after PD-1 naive patients? And kind of what I'm trying to understand is really what percent of first-line RCC patients now are actually getting a PD-1 in an adjuvant setting? And how do you think that figure will really evolve as we approach the end of the decade? And maybe just lastly, what profile do you think zanza plus belzutifan will need to show in a second-line plus setting to support running a trial in the same population as LITESPARK-001?
Yes. Akash, let me start, and I can pass it on to P.J. or and/or Dana to provide color commentary. So again, I think the way we look at the problem, and I would advise that you look at the problem is not so much on what's happening today, but what's going to be happening in the future. I think early to mid-30s, 2030s, where we're really targeting having zanza be a standard of care for RCC, right? If you look at the cabo story, we have a dominant standard of care TKI for RCC in the 20s, right, based upon all the data we've generated.
And we aspire to do the same thing for zanza, but fast forwarding years ahead to be able to understand how standard of care will evolve between now and then so that zanza can be a great player there. So again, we've got 3 ongoing or planned pivotal trials so far with RCC. We're having a lot of very important discussions with other potential combination partners that I'll frame as having orthogonal MOAs that could, again, give us a lot more bang for the buck, also in RCC that we're really excited about. So I would look at -- and I certainly look at it and I recommend you look at it as this -- the non-clear cell trial, the 2 Merck trials are really just the beginnings of building a franchise for RCC, where we can have a dominant position with zanza in the 2030s.
Our next question comes from the line of [ Andy Shi ] with William Blair.
So kind of going back to the previous question, maybe for P.J., do you see an increased utility of cabo monotherapy in the first-line setting, just driven by the evolving dynamics in the IO usage, mostly in the adjuvant setting?
Yes. Thanks for the question, [ Andy ]. What I'd say is we've always had a very reasonable utilization of cabo monotherapy in the first-line setting. If you kind of think back to the CABOSUN study, which we did was a cooperative group study that we got an indication based on in sort of single-agent first-line utilization. So there's always been a role and a place for cabo in the first-line setting. And that really continues to be the case, particularly in terms of the monotherapy segment of that population.
Our next question comes from the line of Sean Laaman with Morgan Stanley.
Just maybe some updated thoughts ahead of the non-liver met OS final analysis in mid-'26, Mike, how do you anticipate positive data impacting your commercial strategy or communication with physicians?
Thanks for the question, Sean. That's a great one for P.J. to answer. Over to you, P.J.
Yes. No, thanks for the question, Sean. I'd say first and foremost, obviously, the non-liver mets is a subset of the overall ITT population where we've been positive. So as we think about that, that's a big deal. And the liver mets patients in a sense, were kind of the harder-to-treat segment. So we're really excited about the data we have in hand in the sense that, that's really going to help us move the needle pending approval for those patients, as I mentioned, that we see from our research, our advisory boards where there's a significant unmet medical need and where the STELLAR-303 data really being received positively.
Obviously, we'll see what the non-liver mets data show when that comes. And I think the way we think about it, that's just more opportunity to help us elucidate the benefit across the board in advanced third-line plus CRC. We've just heard a lot of positives in terms of the data, particularly when we think about the mechanism of action of the combination as well as the potential to have an immune checkpoint inhibitor available to a broader population outside of the MSI-high population. That's really something we're hearing across the board from oncologists is important. And in fact, what we hear from them is literally almost all their patients are asking for an immune checkpoint inhibitor. So we think this will be really important for the treating physicians and their patients.
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Schmidt with Guggenheim.
This is Rosy on for Michael. I guess just first of all, I guess as we look ahead to the December PDUFA date for STELLAR-303, can you just comment on the nature of your interactions with the FDA to date and whether you currently anticipate an advisory committee as part of the review process? And then secondly, regarding your earlier stage pipeline, how are you thinking about the cadence of initial data disclosures? And can you provide some color on how you're evaluating those early signals and making the no-go decision on advancing programs?
Thanks for the question, Rosy. This is Dana. So regarding the STELLAR-303 NDA and interactions with the agency, I'll just reiterate, we're super excited about the acceptance of the NDA, and we're very actively engaging with the agency on the filing as is the norm in these types of activities. So we're -- regarding the non-liver mets data, those data are due in the middle of the year. Those data as well as any other data, including like the 120-day safety update, additional analyses or data cuts the agency asked for will be shared with the agency as part of the normal process. So all of that is going according to plan, and we're quite excited about our interactions. We're very positive on how things are proceeding, and we're working with the agency very actively. So we're happy.
Our next question comes from the line of Sudan Loganathan with Stephens.
First wanted to ask, can you comment on any trials ongoing and potentially reading out this year that could challenge cabo in the second-line plus RCC setting? And then secondly, how do trials suggest that LITESPARK-033 and even the combo trial Arcus is running with cabo in the post-IO setting could help retain the lead share in RCC as we look into the remainder of 2026?
Okay. Sudan, thanks for the question. P.J., you want to take that one on?
Yes. Thanks for the question. With regards to ongoing trials, obviously, we're aware that there's data reading out at the upcoming GU ASCO meeting. We're following that very closely. I guess the press release says it's positive for PFS. I would just remind you, and we heard this sort of very clearly from our KOL in our R&D Day event and sort of broadly across the board from KOLs and research that to really raise the bar on the standard of care in RCC at this point, overall survival is really critical to do that. So we'll see what the data are. Any time you add more drugs into the mix, there's incremental toxicity and you have to kind of see what the overall profile of the product is.
But we're confident in cabo and our position in the marketplace and our team and the data. The data has ripened well as we've seen data such as CONTACT-3 from cabo. So we're confident in our position in RCC.
Our next question comes from the line of Leonid Timashev with RBC.
I just wanted to follow up on some of the RCC questions from Sudan and Yaron. I guess with gross to net looking better than expected, the net launch being stronger than expected, I guess, how much growth are we expecting from RCC in 2026? And I guess, is that coming from new patient starts? Are there still segments of the population that are underutilizing cabo in RCC? Or is it more maybe more playing defense and maintaining share in 2026 as the strategy across some of the academic centers? Can you just maybe talk about that?
Yes, sure. P.J., do you want to take that, and I'll provide some color commentary, too.
Yes. Thanks for the question, Leonid. We're -- as I mentioned, kind of we're very pleased with our position and the year we had in 2025 with significant growth in both RCC and obviously, from the net launch. So as we look forward, you obviously see from our guidance that we have significant growth we're expecting in 2026, and we really do see that coming from really both aspects of the franchise in terms of neuroendocrine tumors as well as RCC as we continue to compete in that space. We're doing so very well. And the first-line market is very much our focus, and we believe we can continue to get growth coming from those patients in the first-line setting.
Our next question comes from the line of Jason Gerberry with Bank of America.
Mike, my question is more just a conceptual one because I know you can't really comment on potential zanza pricing. But as you kind of observe what we're seeing is maybe a trend in higher launch pricing in the last 12 months for cancer therapies, I'm just wondering maybe if you can speak to that as a trend. It seems like perhaps maybe sponsors are factoring in things like IRA and compensating for that. And investors have taken notice as well of these higher launch prices. So I wonder if you can just comment at all in terms of what you're seeing from a trend perspective.
Yes. Thanks, Jason. I think you actually covered it pretty well in terms of the data and the facts out there. I wouldn't want to speculate why people are behaving a certain way, but you certainly can. So -- and you did, which is fine. We'll certainly keep potential pricing opportunities for Exelixis drugs. Certainly, zanzalintinib under our hat until the appropriate time. But I'm really glad that you highlighted some of the trends as they're going forward, which I think the way you frame it is probably a reasonable way to kind of put things in perspective. So thanks for doing that.
Our next question comes from the line of Etzer Darout with Barclays.
This is [ Luke ] on for Etzer. For non-clear cell, can you give some color around like what you expect the market size to be and what your expectations around outcomes relative to standard of care is? And in your R&D slides, you list sunitinib or cabo/nivo or pembro [indiscernible] As standard of care. Do you have any visibility as to what proportion of patients get those 3 regimens? And like with that, do you have any idea as to how much cabo revenue is currently attributable to non-clear cell?
P.J.?
Yes. Thanks for the question, [ Lukas ]. I guess to start with, as we've said before, non-clear cell RCC is approximately 20% of renal cell carcinoma. And I guess a little perspective on the non-clear cell portion of RCC today, just like sort of the entire market of renal cell carcinoma, it's very competitive.
You mentioned a number of regimens therapies that can be used there and are used there. And just like there's hotly contested sort of the broader RCC, non-clear cell is the same. So we believe that, that sets us up really well in terms of 304, should we have a positive outcome there because this is very much an underserved and understudied part of the population in terms of these non-clear cell patients. And 304 is really the first pivotal registrational Phase III study looking at this population.
So as you think about that, that becomes very significant in terms of the ability to really identify those patients and a specific benefit in that population. So what we hear from KOLs is that will be very important in terms of the potential benefit for those patients and elucidating it. And furthermore, it's really exciting to us to have a potential entry point, obviously, for zanza into RCC. This is obviously our major franchise in terms of cabo and something we look forward to expanding on. And as Mike kind of alluded to earlier, we view this as just the beginning for zanza and RCC. We've got the Merck studies. And as has been mentioned here today, many other potential opportunities we're looking at in combination partners. So kind of like we did in cabo and covering the landscape with multiple clinical trial data readouts to really become the standard there, that's our view and approach for zanza and RCC as well.
Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Willey with Stifel.
I think you've previously intimated that you're conducting some additional work on zanza dose optimization. And just curious if this data is going to be used to inform a starting zanza dose for STELLAR-316 and whether you would potentially expect to submit any of this additional dose optimization data as part of the ongoing NDA review.
Sure. This is Dana, Stephen. Thanks for the question. So yes, we -- our approach is always to use the optimal dose in any pivotal study that's appropriate to each individual setting, which might be influenced by a number of factors, including stage of disease, potential combination partner, expected duration of treatment, et cetera. So we take that approach with every study, and we'll continue to do so for the foreseeable future, certainly for STELLAR-316.
With STELLAR-303, as we mentioned, I think, during an event at ESMO, we do have data that we feel are quite strong, supporting contribution components and share those data with the agency as part of the review.
Our next question comes from the line of Jay Olson with Oppenheimer.
As you plan for the commercialization of zanza, since this would be the first approval, how should we think about the launch trajectory in CRC? And since it's also a new indication for atezo, is there any work that Roche is doing that you're aware of to ensure a rapid uptake for this innovative combination regimen?
Yes. Thanks for the question, Jay. What I'd say is in terms of what we're expecting in the marketplace, as I mentioned, we see a significant unmet medical need here. And it's very exciting to launch a new product and a new combination in the marketplace. As I mentioned, our team here, we've been working very hard on it, and folks are very excited about that. I don't want to sort of get ahead of any specific forecast or guidance with regards to that.
But what I would say is that the market here is fragmented. We've talked about that before. You see in the third-line plus CRC market, you see approximately 1/3 TKIs. You see about 1/3 Lonsurf bev in terms of the sunlight regimen. And the remaining 1/3 is either chemo or sort of targeted therapies directed at specific biomarker-driven populations. So when you see a fragmented market like that, there's certainly really opportunity to have a significant impact.
So that's certainly exciting. And as I mentioned previously, significant overall survival benefit over an active standard of care as well as the opportunity to have immunotherapy for this broader patient population have been resonating really well with prescribers in our market research. So we're excited to get there. We are devoting every sort of appropriate resource to this. So we're fully ready to go on the first day of a potential launch.
Our next question comes from the line of Eva Fortea-Verdejo with Wells Fargo.
Two quick from us. I think the first one on STELLAR-304 readout. Should we be expecting kind of like similar to what we saw last year with 303, where we get a press release with limited data and then like followed up at a medical meeting with a full data release? If that's the case, what would be like a good target meeting? Is this like a second half 2026 event? And then the second question, just within the ASCO GU topic, should we expect any significant updates from zanza? We see a few titles in the program, but perhaps you could comment on this.
Yes. Thanks for the question, Eva. It's Mike. Let me take that. So in terms of 304 top line results, how we'll communicate that. Stay tuned on that. We look at every opportunity as a separate opportunity based upon what's happening, the data, the timing, other meetings, et cetera. So as we get closer to having top line results, we'll figure that out and then obviously communicate that to you guys in a very compliant fashion. Second question, I missed. ASCO GU, yes, I don't -- I'm not sure we have a lot to offer on that right now. The titles are out. So I would look at those carefully, and we'll see you there for sure.
Our next question comes from the line of Ash Verma with UBS.
So just on 4Q, looking at the strong net growth that you saw and also some gross to net improvement quarter-over-quarter as well, did RCC grow for cabo? So that's the first question. And then secondly, for this upcoming LITESPARK-011 data at the end of Feb, yes, so OS is still maturing, we know that, right? But in terms of median PFS, like what type of delta versus the cabo prior 10 months can have a near-term impact on your RCC sales?
P.J.?
Yes. Thanks for the question. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we're really pleased with the business and the momentum. As we looked at the quarter, we had strong growth in terms of 15% TRx growth year-over-year, which we're very pleased with. And that clearly was driven both by RCC and NET. So again, we're excited about that. As I alluded to earlier, we expect to continue to grow both of the franchises this year as is indicated by our guidance.
Our next question comes from the line of Kalpit Patel with Wolfe Research.
For STELLAR-304, I know you have overall survival as a secondary endpoint. But with the recent FDA draft guidance on using OS when it seems most reasonable, do you anticipate the need to show a benefit in OS to receive a full approval? And then also for that same trial, you have sunitinib as the control arm. But do you think at least on a cross-trial basis, you need to look better than what cabo plus nivo delivers historically in this setting?
P.J., do you want to take a shot at that?
Yes. I'll talk about what we need to see in the marketplace. In terms of -- I think, as I mentioned earlier, it's competitive in terms of non-clear cell just as it is in the overall RCC market. Again, though, as we dial into the specific patient population of non-clear cell RCC, that's obviously a separate and distinct population from the broader Phase III studies for all the regimens on the market today, including cabo/nivo.
So we'll have to be very careful not to sort of sort of mix the data in terms of very different patient populations. So that said, as I mentioned earlier, we are certainly excited about a specific Phase III trial, which is the only one studying this underserved and understudied population in terms of non-clear cell RCC and having positive results there, we believe will be very impactful for the marketplace.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, there are no further questions. And so I will turn the call over to today's host, Andrew Peters. Mr. Peters?
Thank you, [ Towanda ], and thank you all for joining us today. We welcome your follow-up calls with any additional questions you may have that we were unable to address during today's call. Have a great rest of the week, everyone.
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Exelixis, Inc. — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz Q4: Gesamterlöse ca. $599 Mio.; CABOMETYX‑Franchise US Q4: $547 Mio. (+6% YoY); globales cabo Q4: ~$754 Mio., FY2025: ~$2,89 Mrd.
- Jahreszahlen: US‑cabo FY2025 ~ $2,12 Mrd. (+17% YoY).
- Ergebnis: GAAP Nettoeinkommen Q4 ~$244,5 Mio.; GAAP EPS $0,92 (basic).
- Bilanz & Buybacks: Liquide Mittel ~$1,66 Mrd.; Rückkäufe FY2025: $954 Mio. (24 Mio. Aktien), $590 Mio. Restvolumen.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Franchise‑Strategie: Fokus auf Multi‑Franchise in soliden Tumoren: Basis CABOMETYX, Zanzalintinib (»zanza«) als nächstes Franchise, plus frühe klinische Pipeline.
- Kommerzielle Vorbereitung: Beschleunigter Ausbau des GI‑Vertriebsteams, um NET‑Wachstum zu vertiefen und Startvorbereitung für zanza in CRC zu optimieren.
- Kapitalallokation: Aktive BD‑Suche (late‑stage, pay‑for‑success) und Fortführung von Aktienrückkäufen bei als unterbewertet betrachteten Kursen.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Gross‑to‑Net: Erwartung für 2026: 31–32% (inkl. 2% Medicare Part D Discount für spez. small manufacturer).
- Zulassungs‑Timelines: FDA akzeptierte NDA für zanza+atezolizumab; PDUFA‑Zieldatum 3. Dezember 2026; NLM (non‑liver mets) OS Finalanalyse erwartet Mitte 2026.
- Studienpipeline: STELLAR‑304 Topline ebenfalls ~Mitte 2026; STELLAR‑316 (MRD) Start geplant Mitte 2026.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Rebatteffekte: Analysten hoben 340B‑Volatilität und Part‑D‑Redesign als Treiber für schwankendes gross‑to‑net hervor; Management erwartet weitere Variabilität.
- Kommerz/Launch: Nachfragen zu Launch‑cadence, Preistrend und Kanal‑Design für zanza; Management betonte Vorbereitung, gab aber keine konkreten Verkaufsprognosen.
- Studien & Timing: Nachfrage zu MRD‑Population (STELLAR‑316 ~20% der Def.‑Therapie‑Patienten) und Details zu OS‑Erwartungen; Management nannte Zeitfenster, blieb bei regulatorischen Fragen teils zurückhaltend.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Solide operative und finanzielle Ausgangslage: CABOMETYX wächst, Barmittel und Rückkaufprogramm stärken Flexibilität. Hauptkatalysatoren sind zanza‑Daten und FDA‑Entscheidung (PDUFA 3. Dez. 2026) sowie mehrere bevorstehende Topline‑Readouts Mitte 2026. Risiken: regulatorische Ausgänge, gross‑to‑net‑Schwankungen (340B/Part D) und die Abhängigkeit von erfolgreichen Studienergebnissen.
Exelixis, Inc. — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
All right. Welcome back to the 44th Annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference. My name is Matt Bannon, and I'm a banker here at JPM. I am very pleased to be introducing our final presenting company of the day, Exelixis. And presenting on behalf of the company, we'll have President and CEO, Michael Morrissey.
Before I turn it over to Michael, I'll remind folks that this is a Q&A session. So please raise your hand if you have a question or ask it through the online portal, and I'll ask it on your behalf.
So without further ado, Michael?
All right. Fantastic. Thank you, and good evening, everybody. Thanks for hanging in there for one last session. I've been talking since 7:30 this morning. Meeting has been great, and I want to thank the JPMorgan team for the invitation and for the great, full packed schedule of one-on-one meetings. It's just a great day, great way to start the year. And we're excited to be able to tell you a little bit about Exelixis, where we've been in '25 and where we're going in 2026. So I'm going to follow my directions here with the pointer.
Okay. So before I begin, I'll be making forward-looking statements. So please see our SEC filings for a description of the risks that we face in our business, first. Second, we have -- we're going to be speaking to preliminary financial results and 2026 guidance today. Please note that the preliminary financial results were generated as of January 11 of this year, and we will have -- and are unaudited, and we'll have a full review of the final results on our Q4 call in February, okay? Thank you. So let's get the business here. So I'll talk for about 20 minutes and then have plenty of time for Q&A.
To kind of set the stage, we, again, had a really strong 2025. We ended the year -- last year with, I think, a really strong enabling session, the virtual R&D Day that we had in the middle of December to really talk about what we're doing strategically, much more than just tactical, here's the latest data, here's the data from 2025, blah, blah, blah. We really want to get people thinking about how we're viewing the opportunity and the business coming off of the strength of cabozantinib in the past and where we're going with the pipeline going forward. And the main focus for our business and the main focus for what we're doing across R&D, across commercial is really focused on building franchises, right? That's the learning from cabo over the last decade, maybe more in terms of how you build a franchise within a molecule and how you can then maximize the value of that for patients and shareholders by improving standard of care at every opportunity and then being able to frame that for prescribers, for patients, for payers in a way that moves the needle for the system. So we are focused myopically on building franchises.
A single molecule for a single small indication is important. That's just not our business, and we don't really focus on that, right? So we have deep expertise in biology and pharmacology and chemistry and clinical sciences and regulatory sciences across the board. And everything we do is at -- every level of the organization is focused on improving standard of care for patients with cancer. That's the only way you move the needle for patients, you have a chance of being successful commercially. If you don't, if you're making me-too drugs with me-too data, it's going to be hard to really have a win commercially. So we do that in a way that is, I think, very efficient and very focused, very, very thoughtful.
We're fortunate to be in a position where we generate a lot of revenue. We use a portion of that to fund new discovery, new development, but not all of it because we believe in running the business like a business, right, where we can -- if we can generate free cash, we do. We use that free cash to, again, invest in the pipeline, but also give money back to shareholders. So the goal here is to have a business that is focused on building multiple blockbuster franchises across solid tumor indications, again, not in all of hem/onc, but really in solid tumors in a way that allows us to be focused and effective and successful for patients and for shareholders.
So let's look at where we were in 2025 and the momentum we've got there as we go forward into this year. Obviously, top line summary is the cabozantinib franchise continues to be the real driver of value for us in the near term and the now, if you will. We had strong growth in 2025. I'll get to the numbers in a second. CABOMETYX was and continues to be the top TKI in the U.S. for RCC and a leader in the oral second-line class. We'll have updated numbers on the Q4 call for Q4, but certainly throughout the year, we maintain that position.
We're very excited about the opportunity to build the magnitude and depth of our GI sales force to match what we have in GU and match that success. Obviously, with the NET launch last year, that was very successful and with a potential for launching zanza in CRC, the GI team needs to be at full force. And so we're doing that build literally as we speak at the end of last year and this year, seeing a lot of progress there and really excited about having that in place ASAP in 2026 to accelerate growth in NET before the potential for CRC coming online later in the year.
So really having to make that work from the standpoint of that transition. So we're all about cabo near-term growth. Obviously, this is the year for zanza to become -- take the next step forward in how it can be our next large oncology franchise. Again, we've submitted our first regulatory filing to the agency in the fourth quarter for previous treated metastatic colorectal cancer, CRC. We have in the first wave, 7 ongoing or soon to begin pivotal trials across RCC, CRC in the NET indication, but also in meningiomas, which we're very excited about. And again, our goal is to establish zanzalintinib as a backbone for future oncology franchises and combinations as we go forward.
So first wave of 7 is in place, well thought through, be executed on right now. The next wave is being planned, and we have a lot of -- I think, a lot of exciting possibilities there. So cabo, zanza and then our pipeline behind that is very exciting, a variety of both small molecules and biologics, ADCs and bispecifics across the board. We have 4 molecules currently in the clinic. I'll touch on those a little bit today. A couple of near-term INDs with XL557 and XB773, which kind of reinforces our approach to building franchises in a multidimensional way that we're really excited about. And again, I would refer you back. I'm not going to have time today to go into all the details. But again, we had a 2.5-hour R&D Day that's online. So take a listen to that, you'll hear a lot of really, I think, insightful dialogue between our team, Dana Aftab, P.J. Haley and some very well-renowned KOLs about these molecules and about cabo and zanza that really puts, I think, a lot of this work into perspective.
Finally, we're very disciplined. We always have been, we always will be. I think we have a very appropriate balanced allocation strategy for our capital in a way that makes a lot of sense in terms of investing in the pipeline, having dry powder for the appropriate BD and then returning cash back to shareholders through our share repurchase program. That latter aspect, so to date, we've done about $2.16 billion in cash returned to shareholders through our share repurchase plans that we were beginning in early, I think, March of 2023 as on the slide. And we have an ongoing $750 million SRP that was authorized back in October of 2025 that is currently being operationalized. So excited about that.
Again, we run the business like a business. We generate a lot of free cash. We use that to invest in the pipeline, focus it with BD, but also return it back to shareholders. And we think that's a really important appropriate way to run the business.
All right. So top line summary. This is a slide from R&D Day. This gives you a sense on where we've come over the last couple of years. Great growth with cabo. So 30% growth cumulatively between full year 2023 and full year 2025, two new indications for cabo in the NET space. Again, zanza's first success in a pivotal trial, again, with that filing now in place and then 5 additional pivotal trials either initiated or planned. So really deep progress and I would say, potential in both the near and short-term midterm growth potential for the TKI franchise, which has been complemented with our early-stage pipeline with the molecules we talked about before, both that are in the clinic and moving in that direction relative to what we've got for longer-term growth potential.
So here's a snapshot of our results from 2025. Again, these are unaudited. We'll have final, final numbers on the Q4 call. Total revenues in 2025 of $2.32 billion. Net product revenues were $2.123 billion. R&D expenses were in the $825 million range. So we've set ourselves with a ceiling of about $1 billion a year for internal R&D, and we came under that because we're making the right investments at the right time for the right assets. We don't feel like we have to hit that ceiling every year, but we're going to make -- we're going to do the right thing based upon what the data calls for. And we ended the year with $1.65 billion in cash.
Key guidance numbers, I won't read them all here. In terms of net product revenue is in the $2.325 billion to $2.425 billion range, the midpoint of $2.375 billion for net product revenues. And then R&D expenses will be in the $875 million to $925 million range. And we don't give guidance on ending cash. But obviously, if we hit those numbers, we'll be in a really good spot there. So -- and again, this guidance does not include any contribution from any potential zanza approval and launch. So this is pure cabo for now and certainly excited about the opportunity to move the needle further with the zanza approval and launch in CRC at some point in time this year.
All right. So let's take a few minutes and talk about our kind of -- again, our view on franchises because I think it's really important to kind of hit this point pretty hard so people understand how we're thinking about it and how we're operationalizing it in terms of what we're doing within R&D. So we think about what a franchise can be in 3 dimensions, right? We have a product franchise kind of like cabo, multiple indications, multiple lines of therapy, multiple combinations within a single molecule. You can also build a franchise around modalities. You can be a small molecule company, you can be an ADC company, you can be a bispecific company or you can build franchises that play together in that way from a modality point of view or you can be a tumor franchise company. You can build franchises in tumors. So you want to be a leader in RCC, you want to be a leader in CRC. You want to be a leader, say, in lung cancer, right, and then focus your resources that way.
Well, we view these all really as interacting together and being able to build a pipeline where you play across all those 3 different dimensions in a way that maximizes value for patients and for shareholders simultaneously. And I think a way to look at this, again, in a very simple pictorial view is this slide shows the idea of building a market in a pie chart format, where your initial launch might contribute to the existing market basket. If it's an early -- kind of an early study, late line, it might be a small piece of that, but it's important. And that's really how we played here with cabo. If you go back to 2012 with MTC, it was a tiny little sliver. Second-line RCC at the time was small, but then really was a beachhead for us to build an RCC franchise.
But as you go over time, as that pie -- as that market basket pie grows, if you have indications that you can add on, if you have molecules, you can add into that indication in that 3-dimensional sense, then the market basket gets bigger. And ideally, you'll own more of that space and over time and over time. So our goal with this approach is to simply build bigger market opportunities and own as much as we can as we go forward across these different modalities, right? And if you look at this from the standpoint of cabo, this is predominantly -- this is all cabo with the majority being RCC driven. We think NET will play an important role here.
But you can imagine, say, within CRC, within the NET space, bringing other modalities in, combining those modalities together, making that pie grow, helping that pie grow because you're constantly improving standard of care for patients in a way that allows prescribers to use your drugs, monotherapy combinations as well, but also then have the duration of action and the duration of treatment really play out well for patients and obviously, in terms of revenue. So we're looking to drive growth of the overall market size, but also capture a greater share of that market size as time goes on. So that's the goal. Simple, a slide like this, obviously, it's a tough business and much harder to do. But I think we've done that with cabo, and we're looking to do it with zanza, got a good start there. And then as we go forward with the other molecules in our pipeline.
All right. So here's a view of that kind of opportunity across the different dimensions as we currently stand today with cabo and zanza and the rest of the pipeline. And I won't go through this, again, slide point by point, but it really makes the point that we've got deep focus in terms of franchises across different tumor types, across different modalities, small molecules, TKIs, IOs, ADCs, bispecifics and then certainly across different tumor types. So again, if we can work in this space effectively, find the right combinations, run the right trials and then be successful in not all of them because this is a high attrition business, but in enough of them to move the needle for patients and ultimately for shareholders, then we will be -- continue to be successful and build value as an organization. So that's the goal.
So I'll just go through these one at a time relatively quickly. Again, these are slides that we had at our R&D Day. So I would again encourage you if you're interested to go back. It's online. You can listen to the experts talk about this much better than I can. But with renal, say, for example, again, we were certainly a key, can you see that? I guess you can, key player in going from 2015 to 2024, taking a $1.5 billion market to what looks like a $7 billion market in 2024 with CABOMETYX, single molecule, the right studies, the right combinations across lines of therapy, we're able to really build that market, help build that market with everybody else in the field. And ultimately, not only benefit shareholders, but the patient experience and the survival metrics have improved dramatically for those patients, right? So we're doing our job by improving standard of care, and we're able to then generate the appropriate level of financial success based upon that. And that we think can continue into the next decade as we move forward with a variety of different approaches.
This snapshot covers the whole basis. I'm not going to go into it in great detail at all. I think I'll just highlight. What you can see where we're working potentially with zanza, the opportunities we have to combine with a variety of different agents and different modalities. We like to think about combination approaches in a real orthogonal sense where you can have MOAs that are related or overlapping or you can have MOAs that are orthogonal, very different. And our experience has been the further apart they can be, if you have the right tolerability and the right insight into the biology and how that might interplay, then your chance of really moving the needle for patients goes up dramatically.
So we're looking at that, lots of ideas around combination with bispecifics and cell therapies and even looking at personalized neoantigen therapy, which is a kind of fancy way of saying vaccines, which is a little bit out of vogue right now, but nonetheless, very important ADCs. So lots of options that we're looking at carefully from an internal point of view or within BD, but clearly one that we're a leader in RCC. We want to build upon that momentum going forward. And I think we've got the right team and the right molecule to do that, right?
CRC, very similar sort of way. Really excited about, again, the opportunity here. Again, this has been historically a tumor that's been categorized as a cold tumor, hasn't really responded to IO in the past to a large degree. The 303 trial, SOLO-303 is the first example after 4 misses of a successful combination approach using an IO backbone as part of that regimen. So we're super thrilled about that. The 316 study, which is on the books to start this year looks earlier. So we moved up in line of therapy post-adjuvant therapy opportunity by combining potentially zanza either by itself or with an IO therapy, looking at patients who are at high risk for progression after both surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy.
So really important technologies there that come to play that really make that -- make the timing for that right. But again, the opportunity here is to build right? And again, have different pieces of that, right? 371, our tissue factor targeting ADC plays well into this space as well. So again, a very similar kind of analysis, you can see the opportunities we have ahead of us in terms of combinations in zanza with IO, existing IO therapies, zanza with molecules like 628, zanza in combination with XB371, our tissue factor targeting ADC that we think can certainly help move the needle there. So lots to do here, but we're really with a stake in the ground for STELLAR-303 and that success, we are moving forward this with great interest and great speed.
And finally, in the NET space, similar idea. This is one that is, I think, is long overdue for innovation. And certainly, the data we had with cabo in the CABINET study in collaboration with the Alliance Cooperative Group, I think, really sets us up well there. So that, again, first stake in the ground with cabo, first new molecule approved in neuroendocrine tumors for the last decade at least. So we're thrilled about that. We have a trial going with zanza in STELLAR-311, zanzalintinib versus everolimus head-to-head, which is a very, very important first second-line study.
XL557, our oral SSTR2 antagonist, we aspire to basically replace all of the parenteral agents with this molecule. And that therapy class is really the backbone for NET therapy from first day on until basically the patients literally forever. So we're thrilled about that opportunity as well. It's a big opportunity, big market. And you can see the opportunity here from a market size point of view based on our projections is a 3x in terms of taking a $2.5 billion market up to a $7-plus billion market. So lots of room to grow there. But again, really reinforces the idea of this multidimensional franchise approach, different molecules together, lines of therapy, giving you the maximal opportunity across the different dimensions, right?
So all right. And that's kind of highlighted here with what's happening. So let me end here because I think this is a good place to basically transition to Q&A. So everything we're trying to do is again, build franchises. We want to really establish what we have now with cabo and zanza. We want to be able to expand upon that in the near term with the next wave of trials, right, with those molecules and then entrench in the mid- to long term with the pipeline. But it's to build multiple franchise molecules across the board that allow us to have the maximum impact for patients and then basically reap those benefits financially for shareholders as we go forward.
So I'll stop there. There's more slides here. I'm happy to use those in the Q&A. Again, I'll refer you back to our R&D presentation. And thanks again for hanging around so late in the evening. I know it's probably cocktail time somewhere, lots of receptions tonight. So again, I'm very grateful for you guys coming and certainly back to JPMorgan for the great day today. So thank you.
Questions from the audience? Maybe I can kick things off, some housekeeping. So for zanza, the NDA has been filed. I presume it's been accepted. Has the agency set an action date yet?
So we announced it was filed back in December. So if you will, the timing probably isn't appropriate for having all those details. So we'll talk about that more once we have details to share.
Got it. And then when you think about the launch, obviously, CRC is kind of a fragmented market. How do you plan to position the 303 regimen? And what does an ideal patient profile look like?
So the -- in fact, I've got a slide here. I'm so glad you asked that question. Good job. Let me go to that slide. So bear with me here. In fact, I went too far, so I'll go back. So this is, I think, a good slide, which kind of summarizes the kind of our current view of the market opportunity based on market research. So it's a fairly large $1.5 billion market opportunity that's fragmented across basically 3 different classes. The largest is actually kind of generic chemo with targeted therapies for gene-driven tumors like RAF or EGFR, et cetera. The other 2/3 are basically 1/3 FOSUF-bev and 1/3 regorafenib. So in the U.S., it's a fairly equally distributed market between those 3 classes.
Our view is based upon the data winning in the ITT population against a standard of care like regorafenib, any patient in that third, fourth line setting would be eligible. Obviously, we are looking at the non-liver met population, that data was not mature at the time of the final analysis for the ITT. But if we were to win there, that would be a great place to actually focus our efforts along with everybody else within the ITT population. So look, we don't -- our job is to educate physicians and prescribers based upon whatever label data we have in the label and obviously very compliant there, but then help them understand the value we have for patients and then they take it from there.
Got it.
Yes, please.
Did you have a pre-NDA meeting with the FDA? And was there any feedback in terms of filing for ITT or LM or?
Yes. So I don't want to talk about FDA discussions, obviously, that's all confidential. But the filing went in with the ITT population because that's where we had the overall survival win.
I believe there's a readout from the 304 trial this year in RCC. Maybe you can just talk about the trial design. I know it's a heterogeneous population. So SUTENT, I believe, is the comparator arm. Maybe you can talk about what type of delta over sunitinib you would need to see in order to gain adoption and maybe clinical guideline adoption as well.
Yes, sure. So here's a slide with upcoming milestones for zanza over the next year. Some we've hit already and some are in progress. 304 is, again, looking at frontline non-clear cell RCC. The trial is looking -- the experimental arm is zanza plus nivolumab. The control arm is sunitinib, looking at overall objective response rates, PFS and overall survival as the endpoints of interest. This is the first trial that's being run globally, first global pivotal trial that we're running that's ever been run in non-clear cell RCC. All the other indications for existing clear cell RCC labels cover -- not actually just for clear cell RCC, but it's for advanced RCC. So we're very excited about the opportunity to be able to have the first potentially positive trial in non-clear cell RCC. And depending upon the kind of data we get from this trial would really define our ability to not only get approval, right, but also then get compendia listing that would put us near the top based upon having Level 1 evidence.
Got it. One more?
One more. Okay.
I have a high-level question. So at this point in Exelixis' life, how do you approach go/no-go decisions with such a broad pipeline? You don't strike me as the type of company that does an NPV analysis and...
We do them all the time. Come on. Chris is going to get mad at you. No, I think we do -- look, we do very -- I'd say we do very stringent analysis, clinical, commercial and financial about where we invest, right? And we have to, right? So I think the -- some of our special sauce, if you will, is that we have this deep commercial perspective on what success looks like. And that helps guide us in terms of not only generating the right numbers to be able to understand the value proposition, but then what's the nuance in the marketplace to be able to make that work or not. And I think, to be frank, a lot of companies don't have that, and they might make the wrong or suboptimal decisions based upon where they invest.
We go back to some of the earlier days where we doubled down, tripled down on cabo, we stopped everything else. That was based on data, but that was based on a real sense of the commercial opportunity in RCC that a lot of people, either they didn't see and either they saw they didn't believe we could do it or they just didn't believe in it, right? This is another TKI, how is it going to be different? What does it matter? And well, the reality was it was different. It was better, and it did matter, right? So it's that nuance that really matters. And I think we've got the analytical horsepower to run -- to get the data to feel good about what we're doing, but then it's the understanding of the nuance in that commercial market and the opportunity that really drives that, too. So it's a mix of both.
Awesome.
Okay. Cool. All right. Let's break there. We all have places to go. Appreciate your time. Have a great meeting. Okay. Thank you.
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Exelixis, Inc. — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
Exelixis, Inc. — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: Exelixis setzt auf Franchise-Bildung: Cabozantinib (CABOMETYX) als Cash‑Motor und zanzalintinib (zanza) als nächster Franchise‑Treiber in CRC, RCC und NET.
- Finanzen: 2025 vorläufige Umsätze $2,32 Mrd.; Netto‑Produktumsatz $2,123 Mrd.; Kasse $1,65 Mrd.; Rückkäufe laufend.
- Pipeline: 4 klinische Wirkstoffe, 7 pivotal laufende/planmäßige Studien für zanza plus weitere INDs (XL557, XB773).
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Franchise‑Modell: Dreidimensionale Strategie (Produkt‑, Modalitäts‑, Tumor‑Franchises) zur Marktvergrößerung und Share‑Gewinnung statt Einzeltargets.
- Kommerzieller Ausbau: Ausbau der Gastrointestinal (GI) Sales‑Organisation, um NET‑Launch zu skalieren und CRC‑Launch (bei Zulassung) zu unterstützen.
- Pipeline‑Mix: Kombinationen geplant mit Immuno‑Onkologie (IO), ADCs (antibody‑drug conjugates) und bispezifischen Ansätzen; XL557 (oral SSTR2‑Antagonist) als NET‑Backbone‑Chance.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Ergebnisse: Vorläufige, unaudited 2025‑Zahlen per 11. Jan. 2026 kommuniziert; vollständige Q4‑Präsentation folgt.
- Guidance: Net Product Revenues $2,325–2,425 Mio. (Mid $2,375 Mio.); R&D $875–925 Mio.; Guidance schließt keinen Beitrag aus einer möglichen zanza‑Zulassung ein.
- Kapitalallokation: Bisher $2,16 Mrd. an Aktienrückkäufen; neues $750 Mio. Rückkaufprogramm (Okt. 2025) in Umsetzung.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Zulassungsstatus: Nachfrage nach NDA‑Akzeptanz/Action‑Date für zanza; Management sagte nur, Filing erfolgte im Dez. und Details werden kommuniziert, wenn verfügbar.
- Positionierung CRC: Wie 303‑Regimen in fragmentiertem 3‑Klassensystem positioniert wird; Ziel ist ITT‑Wert basierend auf gewonnenem OS (overall survival) — Fokus auch auf Nicht‑Leber‑Met Patienten.
- Studien & Go/No‑Go: Fragen zu 304 (non‑clear cell RCC; Vergleich zu Sunitinib; Endpunkte ORR/PFS/OS) und zur Entscheidungslogik für Portfolioinvestitionen; Management betonte stringente klinische, kommerzielle und finanzielle Analysen, nannte aber keine konkreten Delta‑Schwellen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Exelixis präsentiert ein klar priorisiertes Franchise‑Playbook: stabiles Cabo‑Cashflow und aggressive kommerzielle Vorbereitung für zanza. Near‑term Daten/Genehmigungen (zanza NDA, STELLAR‑303/304/311) sind die Haupt‑Katalysatoren; Risiken bleiben regulatorische Timing‑unwägbarkeiten und Studienergebnisse.
Exelixis, Inc. — Special Call - Exelixis, Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Welcome to the Exelixis virtual event. Please welcome Executive Vice President of Public Affairs and Investor Relations, Susan Hubbard.
Welcome, everyone, to the Exelixis 2025 R&D Day, building next-generation oncology franchises. We very much appreciate you taking time to join us today. As you can see, we have a very busy agenda and are delighted to be joined during the disease focus areas by 3 guest speakers, Dr. Shwari, Dr. Saeed and Dr. Chan. But let me just start by saying that during the course of this presentation, we will be making forward-looking statements regarding the future events and the future performance of the company.
This includes statements about possible developments regarding discovery, product development, regulatory, commercial, financial and strategic matters and potential market and growth opportunities. Actual events or results could, of course, differ materially. We refer you to the documents we file from time to time with the SEC Commission, which under the heading Risk Factors, identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed by the company verbally and in writing on the slides today, including, without limitation, risks and uncertainties related to product commercial success, market competition, regulatory review and approval processes, conducting clinical trials, compliance with applicable regulatory requirements, our dependence on collaboration partners and the level of cost associated with discovery, product development, business development and commercialization activities.
And with that, I'm going to turn the presentation over to Mike.
All right. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to our 2025 R&D Day. We are really excited to have you join us, and we're certainly grateful for your time and attention and interest in Exelixis. We have a very packed agenda, as you heard from Susan, I'm going to give a brief intro. You hear a lot from me during the year, and I want to make sure that we have a lot of time today for the discussion between Dana Aftab and P.J. Haley and the clinical experts that are joining us today to really get a sense of our strategy, our focus and the intent we have in terms of building Exelixis into a multi-compound, multi-franchise company.
Several important key themes today are on this first slide. Again, we're going to focus on strategy. This won't be a typical R&D day data dump. We're going to get into the weeds about what we're doing, why we're doing it and how we're doing it from a strategic point of view. So you can understand how we'll move forward from where we are today with cabo to again, this franchise approach building out for patients and shareholders. The focus is really on pipeline and franchises, right? We're not looking at one-off indications. We're not looking at small populations. We're really going for it from the standpoint of building and enhancing our ability to play the franchise game really, really well, as you see in big pharma, so that we can be successful for patients and shareholders.
Bottom line here is a guiding principle is that we have to prioritize well, we have to allocate capital well and make sure that we're always making the tough decisions in terms of picking the winners and maximizing our chance of success. Our goal overall is to -- again, as you've heard me say many times this year, improve the standard of care for patients with cancer. That's how you move the needle for patients and shareholders and to become and really build upon the leadership position we have in solid tumor oncology today to go to that next echelon of leadership in terms of patients we impact tumor types we attack and then obviously, the commercial side with revenue.
All right. So let's start by taking a quick step back and just looking at what we've done since the last time we met in December of 2023. Obviously, cabo has been a huge success for us and for patients and for shareholders, we continue to see outsized growth of the cabo franchise. We're projecting more than 30% growth cumulatively looking at full year 2023 to full year projections for 2025 in terms of cabo net product revenues, it's very exciting. We're pleased to have 2 new indications for CABOMETYX in the net space as well, and we think that will help drive revenues in 2025 and '26 and beyond. Certainly, as you'll hear a lot about today, as we've talked about throughout the year, zansa is now at center stage for our next potential franchise molecule. Very pleased with the positive top line results that we had in STELLAR-303 and now having a filing in place with the FDA based upon that trial.
So a lot of progress there, a wide variety of pivotal trials either ongoing or planned -- you'll hear about that today in great detail. We think between cabo and zansa we have very good opportunities to drive near-term and midterm growth from the pipeline. In terms of early stage work, again, it's been a very productive couple of years. Our early-stage pipeline is very fill, 3 IND candidates that you'll hear about today, XB010, XB628 and XB371 all important new molecules that are accruing rapidly. We're really excited about both as monotherapies, but also in combination and then some new molecules that are advancing rapidly towards IND status as development candidates that you haven't heard a lot about it in the past, but that we're super excited about especially XP773, our DLL3, warhead ADC and then XL557, which is an oral SSTR2 agonist for neuroendocrine tumors.
So again, this next wave coupled with what's happening and in discovery, we really expect to drive long-term growth with both first-in-class and best-in-class potential. All right. So I went too far. Can you go back one, please? Thank you. So bottom line here is that our goal is to really drive the company with our science, with our clinical development work, with our commercial expertise to become a top 5 solid tumor oncology company, not be able to do that. We have to have multiple blockbusters franchise molecules in important indications with important combination partners to be able to drive that revenue growth to help more patients than we currently are right now with cabo.
Where we stand today, it was a pretty good spot, obviously, right? We're -- in 2024, we were a top 10 solid tumor oncology company in the U.S. with a single blockbuster molecule and cabo with 8 indications. So we have a lot of success in the past, and that lens of why we were successful with cabo drives us forward. And that is to really build franchise molecules, franchise indications from our pipeline. We look to establish those in the context of getting on the beach, if you will, to be able with our first indication, say, with the TKIs to be able to build dominance in GU and GI and our first ADC launch that will happen sometime in the near future, hopefully, and then to expand upon that in terms of other indications, other combination partners, other tumor types as we -- as the pipeline moves down field and then finally to entrench and really make sure that we have the best possible options for patients best combination partners, et cetera, that will help us move forward as an organization.
So large aspirational goals. We're swinging for the fences here. We're very excited about that, and we have the conviction we have the culture and we have the team to be able to get that done as we go out in the coming years ahead. So we talk about and we think about franchises really in 3 dimensions, right? Think about them in terms of compounds, right? Like compounds like cabo, compounds like we hope zansa will be, where you can build the pipeline within the compound by itself. We think about a [indiscernible] expertise.
Obviously, we're very strong in small molecules. Over the last few years, we've been investing in biologics and ADCs and bispecifics, and we think we can double down there as time goes on as well and then importantly, tumor franchises. We want to make sure that we are strong in areas of high unmet medical need. We want to be able to, again, move the bar for patients by improving standard of care for those patients with these different tumor types and doing them with single -- with monotherapies with combination approaches that are potentially best-in-class because that's the only way to move the needle commercially is to move the needle for patients themselves.
Our pipeline, as you've seen throughout 2025, is advancing nicely. We have a lot going on with zansa. You hear all about that today. We have 7 either ongoing or planned label-enabling studies. Go here obviously is to right shift all those while we're bringing up new indications and new combination partners in Phase II.
Our early-stage pipeline goal here is to, again, advance those through Phase Ib into Phase II and Phase III through proof of concept, proof of developability, picking the right combinations and the right overall approach. So we have the opportunity to, again, pick the winners, maximize success and move these important molecules into full development. So here's our pipeline, looking at those 3 dimensions around products, around modalities, around tumor franchises. Again, lots of room to maneuver. You'll hear a lot about this today from the team and our external advisers and collaborators, certainly, we're going to focus heavily in the kidney cancer space in the net face and in the colorectal cancer space as our main short-term focus to building tumor-type franchises with a variety of different compounds, combinations, myotherapies that will help move the needle.
So finally, I'll leave you with this slide as a road map I think you'll hear very, very clear details and a very clear summary of how we're going to do this in terms of establishing, expanding and entrenching franchises across kidney cancer, colorectal cancer and neuroendocrine tumors. So should be a great day. I'm really excited to have the opportunity to move forward now and invite Dana and PJ to join us at the stage, and we'll -- they'll be having a dialogue with Dr. [indiscernible] and Saeed and Chan, very grateful for these clinical experts and longtime Exelixis collaborators to join us today and help us tell the story of how we're going to make this pipeline work for patients. as we go forward.
So with that, I'll turn the podium over to PJ and Dana. Thank you.
All right. Thank you, Mike. First, it's my pleasure to start us off with our kidney cancer or renal cell carcinoma franchise discussion by welcoming in Dr. Tony [indiscernible], Dr. [indiscernible] is the Director of the Lank Center for Geo Oncology as well as the co-leader of the kidney cancer program at Dana Farber, Dr.[indiscernible] great to see you. Thank you for joining us today, and maybe we'll start out -- just to give you a chance to tell everybody watching a little bit about yourself about your clinical practice and about your research.
So thanks for joining us, [indiscernible]
Thanks P.J. Pleasure to be here with you and Dana here, our journey. I can't believe it's been over 15 years now. It started with a bit of hope and the hope continues and the survival is better and better. So -- this journey actually started with cabozantinib and will continue through zanza, like I like to say it, and thank you for the investment in kidney cancer, 1 of the top 10 cancers in the U.S. and in the Western world.
Great. Well, we'll move on to the landscape discussion now so you can help us kind of set the stage here. So as you mentioned, it's hard to believe we've been working together for over 15 years. Throughout that time, the landscape has evolved dramatically with new MOAs, multiple treatment options for patients.
As you mentioned, certainly CABOMETYX has become a mainstay of treatment in renal cell carcinoma. You've really led many of these trials, which establish this current landscape. So hoping you could maybe give us your thoughts on the current landscape, but also with the mind towards really tell us about what the importance of overall survival has been to establish this landscape and how you see the importance of overall survival going forward as we look to continue to evolve the landscape.
No, thanks, P.J. I think I've I personally do not compromise on overall survival at all. There is nothing that capture benefit the plus and minus more than overall survival though even if we do not reach out overall survival, other endpoints are also important. I'm happy how we started with cabozantinib with METEOR, if you remember, we had an overall survival against an active agent that was the first TKI to have as a single agent, an OS benefit against an active control. And after that, I'm happy how we continue exploring cabozantinib and we moved it to the first line, if you remember, with the Alliance study, the academic study versus [indiscernible]. This is the first time that TKI beats another TKI had to have. We had progression-free survival response rate, both investigator and center review. We did not have OS simply because this was a very small randomized Phase II study of less than 200 patients. But then immune checkpoint inhibitor came in first line, and we combined cabozantinib very well. It did actually combine very well in terms of toxicity and activity and beat sunitinib hands down with all the endpoint you can imagine, progression-free survival response rate OS even quality of life, et cetera.
So that regimen continues to be one of the most used regimen in first line and what I say that keep on giving despite the fact that I always want more and better and to cure patients.
Great. Well, thank you for that overview. I think now it would be interesting to get your thoughts on this perspective. So I think there's a new evolving space in the first-line metastatic setting as we now have pembro available in the adjuvant setting for RCC patients. So could you talk to us a little bit about how do you think about and how would you characterize these patients whose disease recurs after adjuvant pembro what's the unmet medical need for these patients in this setting?
I mean, look, one of the embarrassment of riches was having drugs like cabo is that an adjuvant pembrolizumab, which has been adjuvant treatment, we waited for, for decades. And finally, we have a drug that prolong overall survival in the adjuvant setting. But patient do recur, and they can recur once you finish pembrolizumab or they could be refractory. And that creates a setting, which we did not have before, and is those patients that experienced progression, not a first-line metastatic disease, but in the adjuvant setting. And that unmet need was addressed in a study that hopefully will start accruing by the name Light Spark 033, which randomized patients to cabozantinib versus zansa plus HIF-2 inhibitor. I think it's also important to take into consideration whether patient progress or experience progression on therapy after a therapy for a while or years down the line for that, we had nice piece at ASCO to define this. It's a new area that we are embracing, created by the availability of good choices.
That's great. Thank you for those thoughts, Dr. [indiscernible]. And now I want to kind of shift gears slightly and think about non-clear cell RCC. So nonclear cells we know, represents roughly 1/4 of all RCC, but these patients traditionally haven't been included in Phase III studies. So I'd love to hear from you if you could tell us a bit about non-clear cell patients what they look like, how they may differ from your standard clear cell patients as you think about that?
I mean we, in the past 20 years and other brought this issue heads on that the RCC that we know about where anti-angiogenic Asian works very well in HIF2 inhibitor. And VEGF multi-tyrosine kinase inhibitor like zansa are the ones that are driven by VHL driven by the story that led to the 2019 normal price. But there is around 10-plus more types of renal cell cancer that sometimes are not -- they are distinct histologically. But sometimes the histology overlap, molecularly, they are certainly different. They have a different story, different prognosis. Sadly, we still treat them with the same drugs we use in clear cell RCC largely with some exception, I would say. So that presents a total unmet medical need that we need to address. What we have is mostly data from single-arm trials that justify using a combination that we know it's been used in Phase III clear cell RCC.
Yes, that's great. Thanks, Dr. [indiscernible]. Thanks for talking a bit about the unmet need there. Maybe you could talk about historically the challenges of conducting a Phase III study in that setting and how important it is to do that to address this unmet need you're talking about?
Well, it's always hard to be first. It's very easy to copy. But there hasn't been, at least to my knowledge, a Phase III trial that is done in non-tier cell subtype powered enough. And I know you guys either finished accrual or finishing accrual and STELLAR-304 which combine nivolumab with zansa against sunitinib in international trial in non-clear cell RCC. Hopefully, you will be adding to the standard of care level. I think the fact that hasn't this concept hasn't been done and these tumors are rare, and there hasn't been a consensus. What to do was led to the fact that today in 2025, almost 2026, we treat non-clear cell RCC almost the same clear cell RCC just because we don't know what to do.
Great. Well, thank you for your thoughts on that, Dr. [indiscernible] and on the landscape in general. So at this point, that gives me the opportunity to bring Dana into the conversation. So Dana, can you now talk to us about kind of as Exelixis is thinking about the future and our plans in RCC, how we're thinking about the pipeline advancing there.
Sure. Great. Thanks, P.J. And thanks for joining us, Tony. It's great to see you. Again, as always. So yes, so let me just take the opportunity to talk about sort of what we're thinking about as we look to the future, especially with zansa in this space. So as Mike set up in the beginning, the GU franchise and kidney cancer, in particular, are very important to us, and it's especially important for us to continue to reinforce and maintain our leadership position here and our commitment to this space with our pipeline.
So obviously, zansa is going to be a crucial part of that. It is a crucial part and will continue to be a crucial part of that strategy. And we see zansa as potentially serving as really an ideal TKI backbone for a number of different novel combinations across settings and lines of therapy. We're also excited about the potential for another molecule in our earlier pipeline shown on this slide, XB-628. This is a novel bispecific IO-focused molecule that has 2 different mechanisms of action.
We'll speak to that in just a moment. But looking at this molecule potentially as a single agent, maybe in the adjuvant setting and then also in combination, perhaps an adjuvant or especially in later lines of therapy, we see as having some high potential in this area. So we're also continuously evaluating other opportunities that perhaps lie outside of our own pipeline. We're always evaluating new targets new modalities that look like they're showing promise or could show promise in the RCC space, again, with an eye to maintain our leadership here and focus on really building a robust pipeline and approach to bring the best benefit to patients overall.
So again, we'll have the opportunity to talk about these -- all of these aspects in the next few slides. So let's now focus a bit more specifically on zanzolitinib. And before I engage you, Tony, and some of the discussion around this, I just wanted to set up the discussion a little bit by introducing zansa and especially how we pursue discovering and positioning this molecule after we brought cabozatinib 4.
So based on our experience with cabozantinib, we essentially, I would say, fell in love with the target profile of that molecule, targeting MET, targeting the TAM kinases in addition to targeting VEGF receptors was really sort of a perfect sort of trifecta or nexus of targets in a range of different tumors, but especially in renal cell carcinoma.
So we wanted to bring forward a next-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor that maintained that target profile but was able to perhaps differentiate from cabozantinib based on what we knew about cabozantinib and some of the challenges we had developing it. So perhaps the biggest challenge for managing the use of cabozantinib was managing tolerability and how to dose reduce for adverse events and having a long half-life became a challenge, having to discontinue dosing and wait for plasma levels to reduce over days, if not weeks, to achieve lower exposures, have the AEs resolved and then begin therapy really set up the potential for patients to progress.
So we wanted to have a molecule that had much shorter half-life to really drive better management of those AEs. So that's what we achieved with zanzolitinib, but then what we came to discover later was that it had a bunch of other benefits that further differentiated from cabozantinib, and those are shown on this slide namely in the PK, PD and ADME realm.
So zanzolitinib, along with having a shorter half-life compared to cabozantinib also has lower plasma protein binding, more potent pharmacodynamic against the MET target. As you can see on the left side of this slide, it has about half of the IC50 for inhibiting the target in vivo in a preclinical model compared to cabozantinib and it also has a preferred tumor to normal tissue distribution profile. Again, something we very sort of serendipitously stumbled upon when we were doing some of the ADME development work on the molecules, but using radio labeled compound, we found much less radiolabeled zanzolitinib was penetrating into normal tissues and preclinical models than we were seeing with cabozantinib.
So that really set up in our minds, a very strong hypothesis and potential for differentiating zanzolitinib as really a best-in-class TKI across the spectrum, not just within our own pipeline, but across the entire treatment landscape for these patients.
So turning back to you now, Tony, what do you see as some of the specific advantages of a compound like zanzolitinib? And specifically thinking about a VEGFR targeting TKI that also builds in these other targets like MET and the TAM kinases in the setting of RCC?
No, I love how you said that you fell in love. Well I fell and love with the science and with the alternative pathway of resistance. We talk about resistance all the time. So if you think that zansa or cabozantinib or another VEGF TKI, develop -- the tumor develop resistance, how do they develop the resistance. And this is why MET and EXEL play an important role as alternative pathway that drive angiogenesis and proliferation.
Now this is in multiple tumor models, and this has been established. So that combination of keeping the -- keeping the brakes on the VEGF receptor and also targeting Methanexl is very beneficial in terms of strategy to combat resistance and keep patients as long as possible, benefiting from VEGF TKI.
In addition, I think also now is antitumor immunity and immune checkpoint inhibitor at the center stage for combination I can tell you that Matt and especially the EXEL family of receptor plays an important role in this evasion of antitumor and immunity. So this is also a double whammy quite beneficial.
So that's from a scientific perspective, what not to love and then comes the half-life that is very, very short and very important compared to cabozantinib. I mean cabozantinib helped many patients, but it had a prolonged half-life. So if you are to have toxicity, you have to hold the drug, maybe sometimes go down on the dose. But a lot of us physician and patient are anxious, despite that the patient does have a therapeutic dose level with cabozantinib when you hold, but the side effects don't come down in general, very quickly.
Now with the shorter half-life with zansa, we can address adverse event in a more nimble way. And I love the slide here the part on the right, where actually, probably you call it serendipity, I call it less politically correct way of luck. You're stumbled on a molecule where the penetration into tumor tissue is simply higher than normal tissue. So I imagine side effects like PPE, which could be severe on all TKIs, okay? We started seeing with sorafenib long before zansa or cabo existed. We see it with cabo, we see it with other TKI. But that going to be, I think, a differentiator when you have a drug that entered tumor tissue more than normal tissue.
So I think a lot of room to hope and to optimize what we know about the science and small molecules.
Great. Thanks very much for that overview, Tony. I think that really sets us up quite well to discuss our plans for bringing forward zansa in the RCC setting.
So looking to the next slide, you can see that we've got quite a few trials planned in this space. We actually have 3 Phase III trials either ongoing or initiating soon. So the STELLAR-304 study is is underway, and that's in the non-clear cell renal cell carcinoma setting. This is looking at zansa plus nivo. And then we have 2 Phase III trials in the setting of clear cell both looking at zansa compared with belzutifan. And those are studies that we're collaborating with Merck on that they're actually executing on.
So we're excited to discuss one of those studies today, and this is the one you already mentioned earlier in your earlier remarks, Tony. This is the Light Spark 033 trial. Again, this is looking at zansa plus Belzudifan versus cabo in the frontline setting in patients who progressed on adjuvant pembro.
So Tony, let's go back to you now to go over some of the data that we've generated in the Phase I studies with zansa. On the left side are the data from the STELLAR-001 trial, looking at single-agent anzalitinib in RCC patients. And then on the right data from the STELLAR-002 trial looking at zansa plus nivo in RCC patients.
Tony, would you mind just taking us through, first, the left side data, what are some of the, I guess, key features and highlights of these data that you think point to potential differentiation of zansa?
No. I mean this is good -- if you look on the left, first at the monotherapy data, this was in patient previously treated patient had VEGF PKI and you can see when you look at the responders that this drug zanzalintinib, which we are calling zansa is active period. I'm very interested since you said how much zansa could be an improved version of cabo in the many underlying properties you mentioned, both chemically and now you're going to see clinical wise.
I was very interested to look at the patients who had prior cabozantinib and did experience progression on prior cabozantinib. And here we go, we have patients that respond over 20%. That's a very strong signal here while continuing the tradition of cabo, which one of the thing about cabo, the low rate of PD as best response.
To me, as a clinician, it's very important when I put a patient on study and in 6, 8, 9, 10 weeks get scans is not to immediately burn through therapy I need to hold their disease. A lot of these patients have disease that can be intermediate for [ res ] and still hear the rate of PD as best response. Even if you had a prior cabozantinib is very low. The majority -- the vast majority of patients do respond and have tumor shrinkage and disease control on single-agent zansa, 32 patients. And I think the follow-up is is good.
Now even the next question is, what can we do first line? And of course, it will be hard to justify first-line TKI in this day and age. So that combination with nivolumab is very reasonable. The first thing I look at, and I think you're going to mention tolerability later that it's combinable. Third thing is combinable. The second thing, if you work at this waterfall plot, besides 2 patients here with PD and one of them barely at the 20%, every patient had some form of tumor shrinkage with a response rate that reached 63% and a median PFS to be loaded at 19, 18.5 months overall.
So there are a benefit here if you look at single agent that we're seeing from zansa beyond cabo to differentiated molecules since patients can respond, and that's not just one case, but more than one case, even if you had prior cabozantinib. And in the combination, it's doable and the response rate of 63% with only 2 patients here, experience PD is quite intriguing.
Thanks for those insights, Tony. And I just wanted to reiterate something that Monty Powell had mentioned when he presented the data on the left side from STELLAR-001 that a number of the patients who had experienced prior cabozantinib and then went on to have benefit on zanzolitinib included kind of the range of of sort of prior response that you might expect.
Some patients have been doing well in terms of disease control with cabozantinib, but then they ultimately had to come off due to AEs. They went on to zansa and tolerated the drug well and had a great response. But there are also patients who couldn't even tolerate cabo to begin with.
They went on and had to come right off, didn't really have a chance to experience benefit went on to the Phase I trial with zansa and then receive benefits. So we think that's fairly strong evidence that zansa truly is a best-in-class TKI to really serve as the backbone for any therapy in this space. So now just in the spirit of a balance and as you mentioned before, it's always good to talk about tolerability.
So moving on to the next slide, we have some of the tolerability data, again, on the left side from the STELLAR-001 trial looking at monotherapy zansa, and then on the right side, zansa at the 100-milligram dose. And I just want to reiterate, these studies are specifically at the 100-milligram dose, but we have recently initiated some randomized cohorts in the Phase I studies looking at lower doses of zanzolitinib and so far, seeing very encouraging activity as we've lowered the dose, which we certainly expected to see in real cell carcinoma.
So our goal is to really understand the ideal dose in that setting as we move forward. So getting back to the AE profile, Tony, tell us what you see here in terms of -- is this consistent with what you would expect for a TKI either in the single agent or combination setting?
Yes. I think if you look at monotherapy, consistent with TKI, Hypertension is the most common. It's on target. It could be manage. We have 20 years plus experience with managing blood pressure, and we play very well that all of the primary care physician here and we do it well. I do not remember recently anyone, I had to stop the drug because I couldn't control hypertension. If you look at high grade, they're in the single digit beside hypertension, which is fine.
Usually, even if it's Grade 3 or 4, it's asymptomatic. So the single digit is good. The one that actually is quite interesting brings me back to what I was saying about this potential drug distribution tissue versus normal tissue versus tumor, the low rate of PPE. I think that's important. I don't think it's as common as people think or with TKI, but certainly can be debilitating. I've seen cases with cabozantinib, I've seen case with other TKI where PPE was a reason to stop even a dose reduction, even if sending to dermatologists or a podiatrist. The rate of PPE here is quite low.
So I'm pleased with that. Now when we combine on the right, there is always possibility that the TKI rather than the TKI exacerbates immune-related AEs. I don't think we know enough about the science to roll that out. But then when I look at the combo of nivo and zansa, I do not think that the rate of potential immune-related AE or toxicity that are common to both drugs like LFTs and the area is way worse.
Again, beside hypertension, everything in the single digit, everything is expected of anything, actually, the 4% for grade 3, 4 is low. Remember, those patients, those 40 patients had a median follow-up of 20-plus months. This is not a short data cut where half of the population had just one scan and you presented the response with more follow-up, more likely of is to happen. And even with that, all in the single digit, the Grade 3, 4 and the PPE is 4%. This to me is reassuring.
All right. Thanks very much for those insights, Tony. So let's move on now to discuss some of the clinical trials we have planned with zansa first being STELLAR-304. So as you mentioned earlier, Tony, there's quite a bit of high unmet need here. and lack of high-level evidence in the non-clear cell renal cell carcinoma patient population.
Can you just walk us through the trial design and specifically point out how you think this could be impactful for this patient population if the trial reads out positively?
Yes. First, congratulations in launching the first Phase III trial, seriously powered to answer your question and not clear cell RCC. So this is, to my knowledge, against the only randomized Phase III study against an active comparator, sunitinib, it addresses unmet medical need that include the most common type of non-clear cell RCC, the second most type is papillary. And then it includes translocation, which is a really unmet medical need non-clear cell RCC in younger patients. It includes also unclassified. I think the randomization also is favorable 2:1 to the experimental arm and the endpoints are really quite reasonable. And over 300 patients are enrolled. So we have enough power to answer this question, hopefully, once for all.
And this -- I think this is a great example of how we're really trying to just really strongly reaffirm our commitment to advancing standards of care in this setting, no matter what the patient population we really want to bring as much benefit to patients in this setting as possible.
So now let's move on to the other study that we kind of teased a little earlier. This is the Light Spark 033 trial. Tony, can you walk us through this design as well?
Yes. So again, we talked about the advances in the adjuvant setting with pembrolizumab, but I wish, but that every patient will be cured with adjuvant pembrolizumab, but that's not the reality patients do experience progression.
Remember, that study was against placebo. So this creates a new niche a new unmet medical need, it's postadjuvant pembro. The biology of the disease may be different than treating patients with strong line metastatic RCC, which usually also you use 2 drugs. And in Light Spark 033, we are trying to address this unmet medical need. So patients with progression after adjuvant treatment with clear cell RCC, where we were randomized to the standard TKI. Here the standard used by most, including myself, is cabozantinib or to add to the VEGF TKI here, a HIF2 inhibitor to [indiscernible] and to improve, hopefully, the profile of cabozantinib using zansa. So zansa plus bell versus cabozantinib. It's a very reasonable study. And what I like about it is we're taking in this 900-plus patient study, we're taking OS as another call primary endpoint in addition to centrally reviewed progression-free survival. I think this is the first non-IO combination to address a totally new treatment setting in renal cell cancer, the first line post adjuvant treatment and a whole patient #1, subject #1 will be enrolled before December 31.
Yes. As do we. And we're very happy to have Merck as our collaboration partner executing this trial with us. So -- thanks for your insights here, Tony. Now let's shift gears a bit and move into our earlier pipeline and speak a little more specifically to the molecule I introduced a little earlier, XB-628. This is our novel immunotherapy targeting 2 different immune checkpoints. So this slide just shows the design of the molecule. This is in our view, a very innovative biotherapeutic molecule. It's in our early clinical stage pipeline, and we think it really has a strong potential to be impactful for patients with renal cell carcinoma as well as in other tumors.
So Again, XV-628 is a bispecific, which targets PD-L1 and NKG2A. We're excited about these targets for a number of reasons. So PD-L1 and the PD-1 axis are well validated. -- with a lot of agents targeting that pathway as an immune checkpoint in renal cell carcinoma and other tumors. This molecule builds in another I/O mechanism targeting the innate immune pathway. NKG2A is expressed on NK cells. So we have the ability with a single molecule to target 2 different important immune checkpoint pathways. But also since these binders are on the same molecule, the molecule can actually act as an immune cell engager.
So because this is the only molecule that we're aware of that builds these mechanisms into an MOA like this, we believe we're in a great position to really have first-in-class potential with this molecule. So Tony, this slide shows a little bit more around the mechanism of action. Can you just lead us through a little bit about what you think is interesting or exciting about this MOA or the potential for multiple MOAs in a single molecule to potentially bring benefit to patients in renal cell cancer?
No, I'm excited about this immuno-oncology drug because of target, if you want both sides of the immuno-oncology question. So there's a potential that like you, Dana, I might only might fall in love with this. Why? Because it addresses something we know very well, the adaptive immunity through targeting the PD-1, PD-L1 access, but also the innate immunity that's coming back really now at the front stage with targeting the NK cell access, I would say, overall.
So while these 2 binders on the same molecule and an antigen expressed on tumor cells and antigen expressed on immune cell, this approach gives us the ability potentially to co-localize these cells. So when you co-localize that's the old principle of bispecific we have with VEGF PD-1 that launched of this $1 billion acquisition. So perhaps the immune cell has a better chance to kill the tumor cell. I'm a believer here and I like now that the NK cell becomes center stage. We've done work, specifically in clear cell RCC with David Brown and Rizwan Romie, where we did single cell sequencing on Stage 1, 2, 3, 4 renal cell cancer. And we found the NK cell initially are quite functional in early stage. But a bit with early -- with later-stage disease, they can become quite dysfunctional. So reinvigorating the NK cell in the advanced setting and the cell at the same time, make a lot of sense. And that's why I think 6% to 8% has potential, not just in frontline, 1 day, but in IO experience. And I would argue also in IO-refractory patients in these patients where PD-1 inhibitor resulted in complete refractory disease. So I'm excited. Again, there is potential for falling in love and relationship here remain to be seen based on the clinical data.
Yes. Yes, for sure. We, too, are super excited about this molecule. And as you're well aware, the Phase 1 is well underway. We're now at dose levels that are predicted to be well within the target range for activity based on the preclinical modeling.
So we're really excited where we're at now. The Phase I trial has moved along quite quickly. So we're hoping to get to the expansions quite quickly and especially combinations with zansa in the renal cell carcinoma setting. So looking forward to our future potential collaboration with that trial as well, Tony.
So let's talk about some of the opportunities for our pipeline beyond zansa-628. So as I mentioned before, we're really committed to pursuing new targets and modalities and other approaches that we think are really helping to drive innovation in this setting.
So looking beyond the approved modalities that are shown on the top -- on the upper part of the slide and then also beyond zansa-628. We're looking at some of these other potential modalities, other bispecifics, some cell therapies, personalized neoantigen therapy and also ADC approaches and others. Tony, in your view, what do you think are some of the more exciting possibilities for these new future combination opportunities, both with zansa and with 628 with some of these other modalities that are outside of our pipeline.
Yes. No, one of the things I like working with you and Mike and everyone for 15-plus years, and we continue to have relationship of respect and love, of course, now is you do have molecules that have alternative mechanism of action in real cell another tumor that potentially you can combine. And then you reach out to the investigator that have alternative, if you want, strategies and research that can -- I wouldn't say, but in large part, can start an academic setting, although you guys have been great. So for example, with Dr. Katy Wu, who is my dear colleague at Dana Farber, we have embarked on a journey 10 years ago was personalized neoantigen vaccine. Neoantigen therapy, I would say. This is more in neoantigen therapy, P&Ts, which I'm a big believer and has actually led to adjuvant studies in renal cell cancer randomized study after our paper in nature. But here, I don't think people using neoantigen therapy, have introduced a TKI, especially in the metastatic setting or high-risk setting where it can downsize the disease completely as an neoadjuvant, if you want a strategy, control it in a way to make the personalized neoantigen therapy and give that to the patient. And for that, we are collaborating with Exelixis and MyLab and the app to introduce zansa with this neoantigen personalized therapy, both in the metastatin and adjuvant setting in clear cell and non-clear cell because in these 2x2, it makes sense. A lot of correlative also to learn from this. I don't think anyone has explored that strategy in renal cell before.
Yes. We're excited about that, too, Tony. And especially given the potent inhibition of the MET and TAM kinases, we think a TKI like zansa with all of its immune modulatory effects because of the inhibition of those targets really set it up to be the ideal partner with a vaccine approach or a personalized neoantigen therapy approach like we've discussed.
So certainly, very exciting times for us. Again, we're really focused on moving the needle for patients in the RCC setting and looking for all possibilities to explore and improve standards of care for these patients.
So at this point, I'd like to now turn the podium back over to PJ to close out this section of our discussion. .
Great. Thank you, Dana. That was great. Well, first and foremost, Dr. [indiscernible], I'd just like to take the opportunity to thank you very much for joining us, say, for your time and your insights. And obviously, your partnership over the many years, we're very appreciative.
And I'll just turn it over to you if you have any final words for the audience as we conclude the RCC section.
No. For me, it's a personal thing. I mean, for me, I've been over 20 years in the field of renal cell cancer. And I love the continuity. One of the issues I always have, in general, you let me it with industry is how things change overnight. Sometimes it's not great for us, not great for patients, all this. But with Exelixis, we've been since day 1, we talked P.J about METEOR, you and Dana [indiscernible] METEOR. But before METEOR there was the earlier study, the Phase I dose, I think food -- and those dose interaction study with rosiglitazone, that led to METEOR Mike remembers that. So even at this 15, 18 years relationship at 3 other yields with renal cell cancer, and you stayed on track with continuity with expertise, with focusing on 1 disease. Patient survival now is not 1 year, is 5 years and more. And maybe with all your novel strategies, 1 day, we can cure in answer, so I can move and do something else in my life.
That's great. Well, thank you very much, Dr. [indiscernible]. Have a great day. Building on that, I mean, I think Tony couldn't have highlighted better Exelixis collaboration and commitment to RCC. If you look at this, this is a market that in 2015 in the U.S. was about $1.5 billion. CABOMETYX played a very large part in helping patients and making this a $6.8 billion market in 2024. But as you heard today, our ambitions really go much further than that.
We're excited about zanzolitinib in the variety of studies going on there. We're excited about new modalities coming forward. We see the RCC space continuing to grow in the coming years, and we are very committed to continuing to work across modalities to hopefully raise the standard of care, raise the bar for patients with RCC.
So with that, that concludes the RCC portion of the day. So I'd like to shift gears and we're going to focus on another very exciting tumor type here at Exelixis right now, which is colorectal cancer. So to kick off the colorectal cancer franchise portion of our discussion, I will turn it back over to Dana.
All right. Great. Thanks, P.J. And to start off this section, I'd like to introduce our next outside expert. Please welcome Dr. Anwar Saeed. Anwar, thanks for joining us today. Anwar is the Section Chief of GI Oncology at the University of Pittsburgh and also Director of the GI Disease Center at the Hillman Cancer Center.
So welcome, Anwar. Thanks for joining us. Before we get started, would you mind just telling us a little bit about yourself, your research interests and the patients you treat in your practice?
Yes. So thank you so much for having me. And I'm a GI oncologist, ATI oncology at University of Pittsburgh and -- my -- I have been doing the i oncology for over 10 years, focusing mainly on combining VEGF targeted therapies, particularly working with you guys on VEGF tyrosine kinase inhibitors with the parent drug, cabozantinib and then now with anzalintenib in combination with immune checkpoint inhibitors or other immune modulators. So the focus of my research has largely been in new modulation with TKIs in the GI setting, colorectal cancer as well as noncolorectal cancer. And this is the population that I mainly see in my practice. A large portion of [indiscernible] practice are focused on the colorectal population as well as [indiscernible]
Great. Thanks for sharing that with us. So let's start off by discussing the landscape. And more specifically, focusing on patients with colorectal cancer who have microsatellite stable or non microsatellite instability high tumors, where chemo is really entrenched across lines of therapy, especially in places like the U.S. and other developed countries. In combination with anti-VEGF therapy. It's really been the mainstay of treatment for well over a decade. So my first question to you, Anwar, is as you think about the strong reliance on chemo in combination with anti-VEGF therapy across multiple lines of therapy, especially going into later lines.
How do you think this potentially impacts outcomes for patients, especially as they get into later line treatment?
Yes. So as you highlighted, Dana, within the colorectal cancer space, we have a very strong evidence for the fact that colorectal cancer rely on the angiogenesis pathway for response. So it's a hallmarked pathway when it comes to colorectal cancer signaling and we have strong evidence for VEGF clonal antibodies with bevacizumab in the frontline setting, we have evidence for continuation of fat beyond progression in second line setting with bevacizumab as well [indiscernible] and then with the 1 posted based on the Sunlight data evidence that continuation works in the third line.
However, digging deeply into the data and looking at the subcu analysis of this large sunlight trial that looks at longer plus BEV in the third-line setting. We know that the portion of the patients that went on that trial where patients who are naive. And it turns out, when you look at that data and dissect the subgroup, the overall survival based on sub groups, most of the benefits are actually derived from patients who were bevacizumab-naive, the population of patients who received prior -- the business number progress on prior bad before going on the study did not derive a lot of benefit.
So the median survival for patients who with prior [indiscernible] was 9 months as opposed to 15 months and patients with BEV naive. And so this highlights that really the need for novel agents with new mechanical actions or -- as in the third line space. As I would say, particularly, we're returning to the western population and our U.S. patients, almost 90% of the patients, if not more, are be-exposed patients.
Great. Another important point to make here, I think, is the fact that immunotherapies have made really a significant impact across the tumor landscape in oncology. But a big exception here is with the patients we're talking about today, namely those with microsatellite stable colorectal tumors -- can you share your thoughts on why that has been the case? Why haven't we really seen much advancement of immunotherapy-based regimens in this setting?
Yes. So yes, that's a very great question. As we know, immunotherapy, particularly with immune checkpoint inhibitors have revolutionized the solid tumor outcomes in many tumor types, including, for example, RCC, which is a hallmark tumor that you guys are focusing on. But as opposed to RCC and many other tumors that are immune responsive within the GI cancer space, on cancer is considered we're referring to the microsatellite stable colorectal cancer consider as the cold tumor. And so there has been a lot of studies either with historically going back to the old studies with pembrolizumab monotherapy -- and there's also durvalumab that was explored either molecular or in combination with another checkpoint inhibitor CPNA4. And then there has been a number of smaller- to medium-sized studies that look at IO-IO combinations in the space and all of them have failed to show a benefit or a survival advantage in the MSS colorectal cancer population, including recently the Phase III LEAP 017 study, which explored a budget multi-bag tyrosine finance inhibitor lenvatinib in combination with PMR in this particular population and have failed to show survival benefit. And so it is a cold tumor and requires a very strong precision-oriented a new modular that could switch or modulate the tumor micro environment to turn it into an immuno receptive environment. And I see we're going to come up with the slides that your assets and valintinib is a great candidate that have proven itself in the [indiscernible].
Right? So those are excellent points Anwar. And it's certainly important as we begin to focus on really how to improve outcomes for these patients with immunotherapy-based regimens, helping to warm up tumors and make them more amenable to an IO-based therapy. So let's now shift our focus to early-stage disease. This is a neoadjuvant or adjuvant setting -- so looking at current options for definitive therapy in these early-stage settings, how would you characterize the unmet need here?
Yes. So well, let's get the perioperative setting in patients with colon as well as risk set cancer as we treat [indiscernible], we treat rectal a little bit different than colon as we do chemoradiation in the rectal setting while we do chemo alone in colon setting and one of them we do [indiscernible] therapy in some adjuvants. As well, while in the colon space, we use mostly adjuvant chemotherapy. That was unmet needed here is that despite all of this improvement as far as doing chemo or chemo radiation or rig cell space would surgery despite this definitive therapy, 15% to 30% of the patients with Stage I to II colored cancer develop recurrent disease in per -- and we'll see within the first 2 to 3 years, post-completion of definitive therapy. And right now, we really don't have any anything to offer those patients.
However, there has been a lot of advancements into biomarker development. And over the last, I would say, 5 to 7 years, there has been really urgent development of TDD and ASAs to monitor minimal residual disease. So this has been started in heme malignancy that they moved into solid malignancies and really validated very well within the color to space. For example, Denentera minimal residual disease assay is very strongly validated in the colorectal cancer space in many studies that we're going to touch on later, but the highlight is that this assay is able to identify the high-risk population that would develop recurrence within the next 2 to 5 years with high accuracy and sensitivity above 19%. And so having that I say here is a great opportunity -- but to highlight the unmet need here is that we have an SA, we know who are at high risk to develop recurrent disease, but there is a great wound-up opportunity to offer something to those patients as finely there's no standard of care options.
So if we do those assays in our reward practice, all what we can tell the patient that, hey, you are at high risk to develop recurring disease, and we have to continue to observe meaning do the CT Ken, to the serious assays until we see something pop on this kit, which could be an audible in the lung or a stage 4 disease. So it leaves those patients with a lot of anxiety and and really it makes the physician or reach that position with the feeling of being helpless and have nothing to offer. So it does await a need to develop strategies -- and to me, it's a great wind of opportunity for drug development and for industry move drugs, particularly that show -- drugs that showed evidence of late or speak setting to this exploration of the space.
Yes. Thanks very much for those insights, Anwar. As you know, we're really excited about the possibility of tracking minimal residual disease with circulating tumor DNA-based diagnostics a way to identify patients with high unmet need, which we'll be getting to in just a moment. So let's talk now a little bit about our pipeline strategy in colorectal cancer.
So as we think about this treatment landscape, we're really firmly committed to developing differentiated therapies that we hope or think will address unmet needs for these patients across settings and lines of therapy. So our first big step in that direction is obviously the positive readout from STELLAR-303, which compared the combination of zanzalintinib plus atezolizumab versus regorafenib in patients with non-MSI-high colorectal cancer who had received multiple prior therapies.
So Anwar, you recently presented the results at ESMO 2025 in Berlin. And I have to say the momentum we had going into ESMO and especially now coming out of ESMO has really been energizing for our team to not just stop at STELLAR-303, but really kind of bring it across the treatment landscape for these patients. So STELLAR-303 is really just the first of several opportunities now that we're considering across this landscape are -- and zanzalintinib, in particular, but our earlier pipeline also includes additional molecules that we think can potentially be beneficial to these patients, including both the immunotherapy, we just discussed XB-628 and an ADC XB-371, which we'll talk about in more detail in just a moment. But let's first focus on zansa because that is really kind of right in front of us right now. As Mike mentioned earlier, we've now submitted the NDA based on the findings from STELLAR-303 and are excited to have taken that step. The franchise strategy really starts with 303, which met one of its dual primary endpoints, demonstrating 20% reduction in the risk of death with the combination in the ITT population at the final analysis, which is one of the dual primary endpoints.
In the next few slides, Dr. Saeed will briefly summarize the rate and the key findings. But before I turn the podium back over to you, Anwar, actually now, I am going to turn it over to you now to discuss some of the highlights from the 303 trial.
Sorry, take it away.
So we can -- yes, definitely provide an overview here of the study design for STELLAR-303. It's a Phase III colorectal cancer study tailored to patients with tumors that are not in a side and not mismatch [indiscernible]. And the trial enrolled patients who are -- who have metastic or advanced unresectable disease, that progressed or were intolerant to prior standard of care therapy that included fluoropyrimidine, arotecan and oxybate with or without anti-VEGF targeted therapy and the patients with actionable molecular profile need to receive the standard of care molecular therapy, for example, trash patients should have received anti-EGFR antibody and then the VERA P6 mutant patients should have received or failed prior VERA targeted therapy. So the patients were randomized once we went to either the combination of zanzaletinib plus atezolizumab versus regorafenib dosed at the regulatory approved labeling. And we stratify the patients based on geographic region, based on our [indiscernible] as well as presence and absence of liver metastasis. The study had dual primary endpoint of overall survival in the intention to treat population as well as overall survival in patients without liver metastases there that I presented at the ESMO meeting where the fine overall survival analysis of the intention to treat population. And I also presented interim analysis of overall survival in patients without liver metastasis.
Next slide. So looking at the final overall survival analysis in the ITT population here. So this study, as we all know, has met its primary end point with household ratio of 0.80 translating into a 20% reduction in that waste benefiting or favoring the combination of dental antibatezolizumab as opposed to regorafenib with a p-value of 0.0045. The median overall survival was 10.9 months with the combo versus 9.4 months with regorafenib. As you see in a couple of marks here, there's a very clear separation of the care from the get go. So some techs minimal. Clear early separation of the care that maintains the separation with time, which speaks to the attacks of the immunotherapy in the setting. As you see at the 12 months overall surge estimates, versus 38% with rigorous and the overall survival seen at the 24-month mark was 20% with a combination versus 10% a with monotherapy. And would ever I evaluate meaningful results in Phase III trials despite more overall survival stems very important. So if there is a 10% difference at the 24 months overall survival estimate -- that speaks to the meaningful outcome that the combination is really doing something as an improving outcome compared to the monotherapy arm.
Next slide. So looking at the subgroup analysis from STELLAR-303 for overall survival, we have seen and looking at the key subgroups that you see in this slide here, we have seen consistent overall survival benefit favoring the combination as opposed to [indiscernible] and that benefit was seen regardless of the geographic region, Asia versus rest of the world. Regardless of the [indiscernible] benefit was seen in wise as well as mutant tumors. And the benefit was also seen regardless of the liver metastasis, which is something that we have actually not accounted for like when we've designed the study we were thinking that the benefit might be either restricted or more in patients without liver metastasis as seen in early phase trials that tested immunotherapy combinations in colorectal cancer space.
However, the zansa data really surprised us, and this is very impressive to me, like, I would say, a believer in this agent because I have used it heavily in my clinic and in my own trials in collaboration with Exelixis here, and I have seen results in the liver metastasis in patients with poor tech cancer develop metastasis, which is something you, I would say, never seen with other [indiscernible].
So I think this speaks to the data. So -- and then also, -- more importantly, the patients who have prior product EGF targeted therapy also showed benefit with significant sellout ratio as you see here. So patients who had products for drug tomato targeted therapy had a hazard ratio of 0.8 or 20% reduction in risk of debt which also speaks to the combination here when comparing or contracting the results with the data from the sunlight.
So talking about the safety for this -- for the combination versus Figo, the patient -- the treatment-related adverse events in general was slightly more with the combination versus regorafinib, we're referring to Grade 3 and above. But most of the side effects were grade 3 rather than 4 56% with the combo versus 33% with regorafenib. But 1 important point to point here is that the adverse events leading to the -- despite the higher at investments with the combination versus Rigo, the adverse events leading to discontinuation has been I would say relatively the same between the 2 between the 2 arms, 18% with a combo versus 15% with regorafenib, which speaks to the fact that modulation of the dosing works, meaning that those patients likely have modulation of the doses dosing and stay on the therapy. So effective dose modulation is what I'm inferring from this table. And next slide.
Yes. Thanks for providing that overview, Anwar. Just to take the safety discussion a little bit further, we wanted to point out the profile in more detail for the combination from the STELLAR-303 trial in context with other recent I-O plus TKI combinations that read out in large population Phase III trials across a range of different tumors.
So this table shows the most common any grade A rates on the left for zansa plus atezo from STELLAR-303. And on the right, we're showing a range -- or the range that were observed across the same any grade AEs that were reported in 5 different Phase III trials that read out either in renal cell carcinoma, endometrial cancer as well as in colorectal cancer with the LEAP 17 trial.
So Anwar, just acknowledging the challenges of making comparisons across trials. Can you speak to how you view the safety and AE profile for the combination of zansa plus [ itezo ] in these patients in third line plus colorectal cancer? And how that compares to what's been observed with other IoT KI combinations?
Yes. Thanks, Dana. So I think one important fact that I have to -- when talking about the safety data from STELLAR-303 or this combination is that -- this is the first Phase III trial testing zanzalintinib in any disease type. And so this is -- I believe that those, which is very common when designing Phase III trials is that we take what we think has recommended Phase II dose to Phase III -- but then with more exploration, we figure that maybe a lower dose might lead to the same effect. And so knowing that this is the very first Phase III zanzalintinib with 100-milligram dosing I think the profile that we have seen and despite, in my opinion, it is probably higher than what's needed.
The profile that we have seen is actually very consistent with the experience with our experience with other Bet FTKI-IO that's currently commercially available in the market for other disease types like RCC, like other disease types where this combination is approved. And so contrasting my experience with using [indiscernible] using rigorofenib in the GI space, and my experience with an zanzalintinib, I think I have -- I would say with confidence that I have favorable experience using zanzalintinib reward practice or [indiscernible], but in trial setting in my own practice, and comparing zanzalintenib with the current drug. So I have a very large, I would say, investigator trial around 100, 117 patients combining cabozantinib with [indiscernible] , in cabozantinib being the parent or the earlier generation better TKI for zansa and I have seen more hanfosyndrome with cabozantinib as opposed to zanzalintinib. I feel like the GI toxicities with having a little bit more nausea and some loose stools and diarrhea, is more [indiscernible] and so I feel like this drug -- we're talking about the side effects as well, what is dose limiting toxicity. And what is -- what are the toxicities that are manageable, right? When we talk about dose limiting toxicities, handful syndromes stand out as dose limiting toxicities in this family of etfTKIs. And so if the tostoxicitis like hand for syndrome is so high, it becomes a limitation to use sat in patients because you have to stop the drug, you have to do the dose hall, you have to reduce the dose, you have to hold [indiscernible] then wait for resolution before you resume, which could impact efficacy. And tentatetinib, the handout, which is a dose limiting taxis is very low compared to we have a very clear and in our STELLAR-303 study being 16% with 9% -- or less than 10% being rate 3 as opposed to much higher with regorafenib alone. And so it's is appealing, the -- and Mike, I can give you the numbers, like, for example, in more than 100 patients that I use cabozantinib, the handful syndrome was around 20% to 30%. with zanzalintinib, I probably have 20 to 30 patients that are treated with zanzalintinib and my own practice that none of them developed [indiscernible] syndrome. And so I think this is very, very appealing when it comes to us waiting for the regimen to be available commercially and [indiscernible] practice for community oncologists to know that they don't have to deal with the [indiscernible] syndrome issue is very, very important. The other side of it, we're talking about GI side effects like nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, most of those are grade 1 and 2. And if there is a grade 3, it's very manageable with the symptomatic management. We have really good agents to control diarrhea nowadays as well as nausea vomiting, and I have never had any issues with adjusting, for example, a tiara educations if the [indiscernible] is an issue. Hypertension is very easy to deal with nowadays. There's a large profile of antihypertensive drugs available in the market. And I really don't even need a primary care position to help me manage that I have a lot of patients who don't regularly follow their primary care physician, and I feel confident just managing their block pressure when I use a TKI. And so yes, so overall, this is my experience have been very, very favorable using this combination as opposed to other VEGF-TKI. And I think overall, the profile is really consistent with other VEGF. I don't see any red flags here. It's actually more appealing when it comes to, as I say, dose in toxicities like [indiscernible].
Great. Great. Thanks for all your insights there, Anwar. So if the zansa plus Atezo combination were to be approved what would you anticipate the impact would be for patients in the third-plus line setting?
Yes, I think it would have a huge impact. There is -- colon cancer is one of the most common cancer malignancies, and there was a large population of patients who with colon cancer, microsatellite stable who are failing or progressing on front line to second line and have really no meaningful options in the third-line setting. Also knowing that the third-line population 10% of them are beating video chemotherapy. A lot of those patients are really seeking new mechanism of actions, we do novel agents, immunotherapeutic combinations in combinations that doesn't go cytopenia fatigue and needing to wear a pump or need to come in frequently for transfusions or holding the doses and all of those complex measures, knowing that we can -- we are introducing a chemo-free Beament into rework practices a huge in my opinion, a huge asset to this population and hopefully will change the horizon. They -- the likelihood of them staying on a regimen like this is way higher than staying on chemo long term. The I feel like there will be a capture for this combination and more than 50% of the population is our line setting.
That's my calculation, but it could be lower than that. But I feel like knowing the patients we are treating, how they think what they want. It's based on the data from STELLAR. I don't think it's convincing to continue with the VEGF TKI monotherapy. -- and between a chemo regimen versus a non-chemorefracto always lean toward using an non-chemo option.
Great. So thanks for those insights, Anwar, it's certainly our hope and intention to bring this as a potential option to patients pending review and approval by regulatory authorities. So now let's turn the podium back over to P.J to continue the conversation, focusing more on the potential market opportunity for zansa in the colorectal space.
Great. Thanks, Dana. We're certainly thrilled as you've heard with the results of STELLAR-303 and I appreciate the great discussion there from Dr. Saeed pending regulatory approval, we do believe that these data would provide us with a very compelling commercial opportunity in colorectal cancer, which is exciting.
This is 1 of the big 4 tumors. You heard from Dr. Saeed many patients here. We've done a little work. And as we look at the third line plus CRC market opportunity, we see it's about 23,000 or so drug-treated patients in the United States. And when we think about that -- well, first off, start our market research indicates that, that population is roughly broken into 3 groups, approximately 1/3 each. One of those segments is receiving a TKI.
So Rego or fiquitinib, 1/3 is receiving the Sunlight regimen, so [indiscernible] Bev and the final 1/3 is receiving either chemo or that could be a variety of chemos or Lonsurf monotherapy or a targeted therapy for a biomarker-driven disease. So that said, when we took that market opportunity, we looked at it in terms of sort of contemporary drug pricing, we see that as an approximately billion overall market opportunity. As you know, Exelixis and our team, we've been in the GI space for some time with our prior approval for CABOMETYX in hepatocellular cancer with our recent approval in neuroendocrine tumors, which certainly a large portion of those arise from the GI space.
So we have experience in the GI setting already. We've been building our commercial capabilities for really a decade now. So we'd be excited to bring them to bear to help colorectal cancer patients in this space. Really, the physicians we talk to with our sales force currently, the vast majority of them overlap and would treat colorectal cancer in the community. So we feel this would be an exciting opportunity should we be approved.
So with that, I'll turn it back over to Dana as we can shift gears now and talk about the future of zansa.
Thanks, PJ. So building on the positive STELLAR-303 results, we're now planning another trial of zansa plus an immune checkpoint inhibitor. But this time in colorectal cancer patients with early-stage disease. So Anwar, thanks for setting up the case for this population. So STELLAR-316 is the trial we're proposing to address unmet need in the adjuvant space for colorectal cancer patients. This is a Phase III trial design to evaluate zansa plus an immune checkpoint inhibitor or without an immune checkpoint inhibitor to zansa alone in the adjuvant setting in colorectal cancer patients who have a high risk of recurrence due to the presence of minimal residual disease based on a positive circulating tumor DNA test.
Before we dive into the details of the STELLAR-316 design, we'd like to also discuss this past population in a bit more detail and also focus in a bit more on the outcomes for these patients. who have not yet recurred after definitive therapy and are ctDNA positive.
So first, P.J., can you provide us an overview of this patient population and then we'll go on to Anwar to share a little bit more around the data supporting this patient population having high unmet need?
Sure, Dana. So I'll just draw your attention to the left side of the slide here. As we mentioned, colorectal cancer is a very large malignancy in terms of the epidemiology in terms of Stage I, II patients, again, in the U.S., it's approximately 90,000 patients here. About 2/3 of them will go on to receive chemotherapy in the adjuvant setting. And when we look at those patients, the estimate is approximately 20% of them will have MRD based on ctDNA test.
So this yields approximately 12,000 patients at high risk in this setting. And I think maybe importantly, Dr. Saeed to give us a little context on these patients, you could talk about the bespoke data and again, how you see this patient population.
Thank you, P.J. So yes, this population, as we highlighted already to earlier there's a wait unmet need for this particular population. So as you see from the biodata here that around 20% to 30% of the patients with Stage 23 colorants are post definitive posted hetotherapy that includes the current standard of care chemo, chemo plus radiation, surgery, have an MRD-positive assay. And those 20% to 30% of patients that you see here, cercrogation of those patients, the patients who are positive versus the patients who are negative in MRD SA there is a huge a clear signal that the patients were positive in RSA doing worse. It's works with a very high risk of returning disease approaching 90%, if not more within the first -- within the first 18 months.
And so it's great -- there's a great unmet need to tailor new novel agents and new therapeutics in this particular population. And why I'm saying this is because these patients were already explored and exposed the standard of care chemo standard chemotherapeutic agents. And so there is a great need for manipulating the tumor micro environment or approaching the disease using other novel mechanism of actions. And one of the really great assets to utilize in this population in combination with other novel agents that could modulate the tumor microenvironment. And the reason we're thinking that is because there is more and more trials now showing that if you go to early stage setting, including colorectal cancer in the peri-op setting, for example, Denise trial and the NIS trial that explored immunotherapy and immunotherapy nations in the neoadjuvant space, patients with colorectal cancer of Phase 2 and 3. My [indiscernible] a like stable. They are seeing really good responses with some pathology complete responses in both pathologic responses overall. Those are small studies, but they're seeing the message, a clear message that moving immunotherapy to early-stage setting in a tumor that is typically immunoresistant leads to benefit and so knowing that this MRD setting or mineralogical disease study post definitive therapy, is a disease that does not have [indiscernible] disease on CT scan. There is no debar metastasis on the CT scan. It is a situation where immunotherapy, even how we would check on the [indiscernible] alone might work -- and so the fascinating idea here is, I think if we find a combination that works in later chemorefractory setting and move it to this particular population that chances and or we're going to see a benefit is very high.
All right. Great. Thanks very much for that setup Anwar. So now let's move on to the next slide, which gives an overview of the design of the proposed trial STELLAR-316. So as you already discussed, there's quite a bit of unmet need in this setting. Please walk us through the trial design and how you see zansa with or without an immune checkpoint inhibitor being meaningful for these patients, especially patients with microsatellite stable disease.
Yes. Thank you, Dana. So this is the -- I think this is a study that is very timely. And I think as you see as far as the design, it's tailored to this and maybe population with the background that we just highlighted -- this is a population that already exhausted standard of care options in the period space. and have a residual disease seen in an [indiscernible], minimal do at the [indiscernible] and there's most standard of care as far as next line and what to do. And so those patients are sitting and seeing us sitting around us with a positive MRSA and us taking, hey, you have high risk, but we can't do anything, we have to wait. And so it's really addressing a huge unmet need population in this population, which is -- and this population constitutes around 20% to 30% of Stage I and II colorectal cancer. So as we see the design of the study is limited to patients with stage 2 and 3 who have ctDNA positive [indiscernible] therapy and obviously, have no prior exposure to immunotherapy randomizing to 3 arms, the combination of zansa, a new checkpoint inhibitor or zanzalintinib alone or placebo alone. So the design is very very appealing. And I think it will help us know whether it will address the proponent, the contribution of components whether he does and the work by itself or in combination with immune checkpoint inhibitor. And to me, I think this Phase III trial is very important too because it's it's moving something that's proven to be significant in a Phase III setting in a chemo refractory colorectal cancer to an unmet need in an early stage setting. So this is like a perfect scenario where you want to move and explore a combination in early stage setting. And this would be the first and only CTDNA guided treatment in the adjuvant MRD setting for colorectal cancer. So very excited to to help with this trial, let the trial and then looking forward to the launch of this trial in the second quarter of 2026.
Great. Thanks for these insights. Anwar, we're also quite excited about this. So our plan is to develop this concept further and then get the green light to launch and we're hoping to launch it actually in the second half of the year. But if all the stars align, we might get it into the first half is, we'll see.
Okay. So now let's move on to discuss the earlier pipeline and the potential for some of our earlier-stage molecules to have an impact or benefit for patients in the colorectal space. So we previously discussed XB-628, our NKG2A PD-L1 bispecific antibody in the context of its potential in renal cell carcinoma. We're highlighting this molecule again here because we think that really does have strong potential across treatment landscapes, including in colorectal cancer, both in early-stage settings as well as later stage settings, either alone or in combination with one of our other favorite molecules, zanzalintinib. Okay. So this again is a slide we showed -- last time, it just as a recap of the design of the molecule, the fact that it's in Phase 1 investigation right now, and we're really pleased with how it's been progressing to date.
So Anwar, given the profile of XB-628 as an adaptive plus in at immune checkpoint inhibitor plus potentially as an NK cell tumor engager. What are your thoughts around developing this molecule in the colorectal cancer setting?
I think -- yes, I'm very excited about this asset on new molecule because I think being a bispecific immune modulator targeting both innate and specific immunity here. This is very important in the Policinspace. I think that SLR have already laid the foundation that using a PD-L1 inhibitor with a better TKI is a positive way to treat patients. And with that foundation to capitalize on the results from STELLAR-303, I think considering also the toxicity profile and everything, the optimum partners with the other immune modulators, where you could further in moderate it to our macro environment without significant additional toxicity. And keeping that in consideration the bispecific [indiscernible] engagers come as high priority when it comes to partnering, if I would have a vision of what's next, that will be high or my last. And I think this molecule has all of those assets that we're talking about having a PD-L1 target as well as NK.
So target, I think, both will address the immune system to stimulate immune cells infiltration into the tumor macro environment, in combination with zanzalintinib that have already shown an immuno moderator impact as well. So I think to build up on STELLAR-303 data, this will be a really good partner with zansa in future studies and follow on.
Yes. Great. It's so great to hear your support for this molecule. We're certainly super excited about its potential really based on all the scientific rationale and hopefully, as we now start to generate more data in the Phase I trial to really highlight its potential to become really the next preferred backbone I/O across tumors, but especially in colorectal cancer.
So again, as I mentioned, we're well along the way in the Phase I trial through dose escalation. And hopefully, soon, we'll be expanding, including in combinations, including in patients with colorectal cancer. So hopefully, we'll be getting data as soon as possible and be able to share them with you and others as the data start to mature. So let's highlight another molecule in our pipeline now that we're particularly excited about for colorectal cancer, and that's XB-371.
So again, just to give a brief overview, we see this as a potential -- as a high potential targeted chemotherapy option in colorectal cancer patients, given the fact that it is a tissue factor targeting ADC, with a topoisomerase inhibitor payload, which we know colorectal tumors are sensitive to bringing a molecule like this into colorectal cancer has a strong scientific rationale given that tissue factor is highly expressed in colorectal tumors. So let's go into a little bit more detail about this molecule. And really just briefly, this is a monoclonal antibody that targets tissue factor, it has top summary inhibitor molecules conjugated with a next-generation linker payload technology that requires 2 tandem cleavage events for a release of the payload inside the tumors -- it really has potential to be a best-in-class tissue factor targeting ADC in this space.
So Anwar, what do you think about this approach? And what role do you think a molecule like XB-371 could have in the colorectal cancer treatment landscape?
Yes. So I'm also enthusiastic, I would say, equally to this molecule and when as to the previous molecule that we just discussed a bispecific is engager. I think having an ADC in colorectal cancer is very important. There's no -- currently we're referring to the bulk of patients will call the cancer, we don't really have an ADC approval yet. And I think this is concerning the standard of care therapeutics in colored cancer knowing that IoT kid is we'll have the standard therapeutics in first line and second line space, knowing that this ADC has a payload that took biases inhibitor and targeting -- using the tissue factor to localize the tumors, the tissue factor is over expressed in many solid tumors, but overexpressing call on as well. And so knowing that, I think this is an appealing asset and very relevant to the colorectal cancer population.
And I also feel when looking at your assets anti I think this could also be a partner in earlier line setting as it will address [indiscernible] or replace ROTC in the current standard of care regimens and potentially replace an regimens and maybe combine it with antarlyorline in the Stage IV setting. So I think it has a high potential, and I look forward to to seeing the data from this -- from a safety early phase trials
Great. Thanks very much for that. So the molecule is well underway in Phase I clinical investigation, and we're hoping to get into expansion cohorts very soon, including, again, in colorectal cancer patients. So hopefully, we'll have more data to share as that trial matures. So I'd like to discuss 1 more program now that's really in the early discovery phase, but we're so excited about it that we really wanted to talk a little bit about it today. And this is a program designed with a particular strategy or vision in mind to discover novel molecular glues and glue degraders targeting KRAS and potentially other important dominant oncogenic drivers across different tumor landscapes, but especially KRAS and colorectal.
So our ultimate goal with this program is to address significant unmet need for patients with KRAS-mutant tumors including colorectal, non-small cell lung and pancreatic tumors, but others as well. Our vision here is really driven by the current state of the field with short durations of treatment and rapid resistance occurring with the covalent mutation-specific binders approved in lung and colorectal indications, which really highlights the pitfalls of that mutation-specific approach. So while large macrocyclic cyclophilin A glues and protect degraders, are now showing promise. They still leave a lot of room for differentiation with smaller molecular wage glues and glutarators that target unique cryptic pockets on the targets.
So over the past several years, we've assembled really a truly incredible team in discovery that has taken our vision to discover such molecules to the next level. And that happened with our recent discovery of a series of very small novel chemical structures capable of gluing KRAS to other proteins capable of impeding its function. So the figure at the top left of this slide is of a high-resolution cryo-EM structure generated in-house of 1 of those molecules gluing KRAS to an effector protein. Now we've intentionally masked the structural details for obvious reasons given the cryptic pocket identified by our team has never been described before and provides a real opportunity for us to rationally drive this program forward. using the structural information is our guide.
So it's certainly still early days in the discovery process for this program, but we are super excited to share the information as a way to highlight how our commitment to patients with colorectal tumors really spans the breadth of our R&D efforts from the earliest stages of discovery through late-stage clinical development and on to commercialization.
So with that, let's now turn back to P.J to wrap up this portion of the discussion.
Great. Thanks, Dana. Well, first and foremost, Dr. Saeed, I want to take this opportunity to thank you very much for lending us your time and your expertise and all your insights today. Very much appreciate that. Thank you for your partnership with us and certainly all you've done for colorectal cancer patients. With that, I just want to give you the opportunity to say any final words before you go on with your day.
Yes. We're -- thank you so much, P.J. and Dana for having me today, my pleasure to work with you guys and -- my pleasure to continue this research partnership and making a difference in the color teaser space and beyond. So really excited about the 1303 data and really cost of fingers and looking forward to seeing the regimen available on rework practice. I can't wait for that. And looking forward as well to STELLAR-316 and hopefully having an impact in area stages of the disease as well. And yes, thank you for having me. And I look forward to continuing this partnership. Thank you.
Great. Have a great day, Dr. Saeed, thank you. So as we conclude our colorectal cancer portion of the day, we'll talk about our franchise vision. As we've heard and as you've heard today, we're very excited about the STELLAR-303 data and certainly the submission of the NDA. But as we view this, this is only the first step that we want to take in colorectal cancer as a company. This is a market that's large. It was about $3.4 billion in the U.S. in 2024, and we see that more than doubling by 2035. And -- and as we think about moving zanza into earlier lines of therapy, such as STELLAR-316, as we think about novel mechanisms of action in our pipeline. We're very excited to continue to work with investigators to raise the bar and the standard of care for patients with colorectal cancer.
So I will conclude now the CRC portion of our day. And that gives me the opportunity now to move on to the neuroendocrine franchise portion of our program, which I'm very excited about. And in particular, I'm very excited to have the opportunity to bring in Dr. Jennifer Chan, hi Dr. Chan, -- great to see you. Dr. Chan is the Clinical Director of the GI Cancer Center and the Director of the program in carcinoid and neuroendocrine tumors at Dana Farber and certainly been a great collaborator with Exelixis for many years.
So Dr. Chen, welcome. And maybe to start us off, if you can give us a brief overview of yourself, of your clinical practice and your research interests.
Okay. Well, thank you so much. I just want to start off by thanking you for the invitation to join you today and to be part of this conversation. So just a little bit about myself. I'm a medical oncologist. As you mentioned, about Dana Farber. I've spent my entire career here. I specialized in the care of patients with gastrointestinal and neuroendocrine cancers. I have a clinical practice. I'm in clinic 2 days a week. Those are the busiest days of the week and probably the most satisfying days of the week for me. But I care for patients mostly neuropen carcinomas. About 90% of the patients that I see have in some form of neuroendocrine cancer and that can be a well-differentiated neuroendocrine tumor. The nets as they're referred to, I see patients with net start in all primary tumor sites, not just in the GI tract or pancreas, but also long unknown primaries and other rare sites. And then also on the other kind of more aggressive end of the neuron cancer spectrum care for patients with the poorly get franked retroincarcinema as the next -- my research really has focused on treatment of neuroendocrine cancers really aiming to investigate novel therapies to identify new treatments, ore treatment strategies to ultimately advance the care of the patients that we're seeing.
Well, that's great. Thank you, Dr. Chan, and it's a really nice segue for us now to talk about the landscape of the neuroendocrine tumor setting. So -- we're certainly pleased that CABOMETYX was approved in neuroendocrine tumors earlier this year in March, really the first new therapy broadly applicable in neuroendocrine tumors in terms of an oral small molecule therapy in 9 years. And Dr. Chan, this is based on your efforts and certainly partnership in terms of leading the cabinet study. So I'd love to hear from you a little bit about about your cabinet study? And then what you see is the impact of cabo now that it's been approved for patients with Nets.
Well, of course, I'm happy to share a little bit more about about [indiscernible]. It's been really a focus of mine for many years now. But the Cabinet trial was designed to evaluate the efficacy of cabozantinib in patients with advanced neuroendocrine tumors. And in particular, patients who had received a prior line of therapy and who are in need of something new to control their disease. This was a study that was designed and conducted by the Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology, 1 of the large cooperative groups part of the NCI's National Clinical Trials Network. And really from start to finish and even ongoing to date, it's been a really nice and very strong collaboration between the Alliance Exelixis, the NCI and our patients to speak more about the trial itself, it enrolled a very broad group of patients with neuroendocrine tumors.
As mentioned before, all patients had received at least 1 prior therapy for their disease that could have been either ratinuclid therapy with lutetium-177 Dotatate or 1 of the targeted agents, whether it be evolution -- there were 2 groups of patients, pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors in this larger group of what we call extrapancreatic neuroendocrine tumors, where disease arises outside the pancreas and the GI tract in lung and unknown primary sites are the more common areas. But the results of this study showed compelling efficacy for cabozantinib. There was significant improvement in progression-free survival for patients receiving cabozantinib versus placebo. And this is ultimately what you mentioned, led to the approval of cabosamton earlier in the year. What I think is really interesting to note about the trial is that we saw efficacy really across the board in terms of all of the patients who are enrolled in the trial across the board in terms of primary tumor site in both extrapancreatic and pancreatic erendoconsumer cohorts really across all grades of disease that we see and treat whether patients had a functional neuron tumor or a nonfunctional tumor.
Those are the patients who may or may not have any hormone symptoms related to their disease. And the efficacy wasn't really related to the prior lines of therapy that we received -- that the patients had received. So thinking back to patients that I'm seeing in clinic every day, this is quite relevant to all of our patients with their endocrine tumors. And I think it's going to be an option to consider for all of our patients at some point during the course of their disease, particularly when we get to a point where there is a role for an oral-targeted therapy, I think cabozantinib is the first targeted therapy that we're choosing for many of our patients.
Great. Well, thank you for your perspective on that, Dr. Chan. I very much appreciate that. And I guess as you think about the field, the setting now, the landscape where it is today, as you think about looking forward, unmet needs for novel targeted oral therapies in the space, perhaps in earlier line settings what do you see as those unmet needs?
Yes, I think as you mentioned, these oral target therapies are really important class of agents that we'll use for our patients. One of the challenges that we have in clinic as we're seeing patients is that we really lacked head-to-head data. So that helps us to make a decision between, for instance, a TKI versus mTOR inhibitors. So I think that's 1 area where has been some need for more data. The other thing I'll point out about the targeted agents is that the ones that we use in practice now, they do have a side effect profile that can be challenging for some patients. I think we, as clinicians, have gotten more experience with recognizing adverse events being able to dose modify and help to mitigate some of the toxicity these patients have. But ideally, if we had an agent where there was a better AE profile overall or toxicities that could be more easily managed. I think that would really go a long way into how we care for patients and how they're living their lives day to day. The other thing I will say is that we know the targeted agents work. We've seen from many trials that there is PFS benefit, but I think we're always aiming to do better. So I think ultimately finding an agent that has better PFS that can really raise that efficacy bar and put that in terms of something desired.
That's great. Well, thank you for your perspective on that. Really appreciate it. I'll switch gears slightly now -- and I want to talk about somatostatin analogs, which is obviously agents that you use throughout the course of this disease. Could you really just give us an overview of how you're using somatostatin analogs today?
Yes. This -- as you mentioned, somatostatin [indiscernible] are, again, 1 of the mainstays in the care of patients with neuroendocrine tumors. They are helpful for a number of reasons. They can help with reducing hormone secretion from tumors. So any symptoms, for instance, flushing or diarrhea whatever hormonal syndrome patients have -- they can feel better with use of somatostatin analogs -- we've also seen from other trials that the somatostatin logs, particularly for GI and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors can slow disease progression -- so we are often turning to somatostatin analogs very early during the course of disease to treat our patients -- and what I will say, and I think what is important to recognize is that patients with well differentiated neuronconsumers. They have a very long journey with their disease. They are living years with their disease. And I think patients are on somatostatin logs for quite a long period of time, and that can be early on were -- and then maintained throughout their lives as news are added on to that somatostatin analog backbone.
Great. had guess when you think about the currently available therapeutic options in terms of SSAs. Could you talk about what are any potential challenges associated with them today?
Sure. Yes. I think even though the SSAs are really important and we use them quite commonly, they can help with syndrome, they can help with disease control. I think some of the challenges really relate to the administration and how they're given -- they are typically monthly injections, intramuscularly or deep subcutaneous injections that are given in the gluteus area, in the Bodick area. So patients really do need to come into clinic. They're seeing nurses or other health care providers who need to administer these injections. So patients are as we think about, again, years of therapy on the somatostatin b, they're really needing to plan their lives around these monthly injections. They're needing to take off time from work. They're needing to planned their schedule around treatment. Patients with again, a long time, and I think many people, particularly with indolent disease and no symptoms, they really are aiming to live normal lives. And having to come in and plan around treatment, I think makes that feel a little bit more cumbersome, a little bit less convenient. The other thing about this amount of standing analogs is that they -- while they can control carcinoid syndrome patients from month to month will perhaps have some breakthrough symptoms or big days where they might have more flushing more diarrhea more fatigue that is attributed to to break through syndrome. And I think some of that is particularly true in the days or even that week leading up to that next injection. So that, I think, can affect people's quality of life -- we wonder and I think even patients wonder because the administration of the somatostatin logs can be challenging in some cases, whether some of their symptoms might be related to an injection that wasn't appropriately given we do sometimes on stands, see that an injection that was meant to be intramuscular may not have actually ended up in the right place.
Got you. Well, thank you very much for your perspective on the landscape sort of as it stands today. So with that, I will bring Dana back in to talk about our future plans for zansa as well as the pipeline.
All right. Thanks very much, P.J. So our most advanced effort in this space in our pipeline right now is with the Phase II/III style Phase II/III trial STELLAR-311, which is evaluating zanzolitinib in patients with advanced neuroendocrine tumors. So this study really leverages the body of data that have been generated with cabozantinib in this tumor indication as well as feedback from yourself, Jen as well as other investigators who are really looking for additional safe and effective therapies to treat patients in earlier lines of therapy. With STELLAR-311, our goal is to really extend our leadership position in this area and establish zansa as the preferred first oral therapy for patients in this setting.
Okay. So Jen, this slide shows the overview of the STELLAR-311 trial. Would you mind walking us through the trial design, please?
Yes, sure. Happy to. So STELLAR-311, as you mentioned, is a randomized Phase II/III trial that's designed to evaluate the efficacy of zanzolitinib versus everolimus in patients with advanced neuroendocrine tumors. The trial will enroll really all types of neuroendocrine tumors, pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors, extrapancreatic neuroendocrine tumors and all patients will have advanced or metastatic disease. Patients can have had up to 1 prior line of systemic therapy that's not including a somatostatin analog, no prior VEGFR targeting TKI or mTOR inhibitor therapy. There'll be a 1:1 randomization to anzolitinib or ralimus with the primary endpoint of progression-free survival. There are expected secondary endpoints for efficacy and safety and also assessments of quality of life during the course of the study. There's a targeted enrollment of 440 patients, and the study initiated in July of this year. And I think more and more sites are coming online. We just activated the trial at Dana Farber last week have already started talking about the trial to our patients, and I'm glad to have this as an option to review with patients who are kind of at a point where they will need a targeted therapy.
I think there sorry, go ahead.
Sorry. No, no, go ahead, finish your thought.
Yes, I was just going to mention that. I think this is an important trial for a number of reasons. One, it really is the first trial that is going to examine on oral targeted agent versus another to try to kind of get at that question that I mentioned to you before. And I think also just with the safety profile of everolimus. We know that there are some challenges. Some patients have difficulty with tolerating ever lines. And I was encouraged by what I heard earlier in the meeting today from both Tony and are about the safety profile of enzolitinib. So it will be important, I think, interesting to compare these safety profiles.
Excellent. And just do us a favor and just highlight the key differences in the population for this trial compared to the cabinet trial that you ran? With cabozantinib.
Sure. Yes. I think probably the most important difference to note is that this is designed as a you don't count SSA as a first or second line therapy. If you look at the cabinet population, most patients enrolling on that trial were receiving cabozantinib in later line settings. There was a median of 2 or 3 prior lines of therapy and cabinet and some patients that even had up to 9 lines of therapy. I think do you anticipate, and I think what we see clinically is that disease may become more refractory as you receive more and more lines of therapy. So I think we may see better efficacy in this earlier line setting.
Great. And just again, to reiterate what do you think the impact would be for patients to get access to a new therapy like this that showed a PFS benefit compared to an active control like everolimus.
Yes. No, I think this is really an important study. I think this will have a huge impact. I think for patients, number one, if we see that there's better efficacy for zanzolitinib compared to ever lines, the standard of care. We'll actually now have a new standard of care to think about it will be kind of an obvious choice that in is the preferred oral targeted agent. And I think we'll be using it first and second line. So I think it will be a really important trial. And especially as we evaluate the adverse event profile of these agents, I think it's really the safety is better. I think it really is a win-win. I think there's no question that this will become the preferred agent.
Great. Thanks for all your insights there, Chan. And also thanks for continuing to be such a great collaborator of ours in helping to really move the needle for patients for this important disease. So -- let's shift gears now and just focus on one of our earlier pipeline opportunities beyond zazolitinib. So we're rapidly advancing a new molecule that we really think has strong potential to be highly impactful for patients in this area. So XL-557 is a small molecule orally bioavailable somatostatin receptor 2 agonist that was really designed to meet the unmet needs associated with injectable somatostatin analogs, or SSAs. Some of the key issues with these agents were highlighted by Jen previously, but they're also shown here on the next slide. Monthly in-office dosing requiring patients to kind of organize their life around these, given long durations of treatment on these therapies and also potential for incomplete target engagement as they reach the end of their cycle with the drug clearing, potentially losing benefit, losing -- experiencing breakthrough symptoms -- so we really see a lot of opportunity here with an oral agent that would require way fewer visits to the office and also due to the once daily dosing and continuous target engagement that you can get from that, really potentially dramatically improving therapeutic benefit and also reducing the potential for breakthrough symptoms.
So this shows a little bit more about this molecule. Again, it's called XL-557 is an orally bioavailable SSTR2 agonist, which we really think has high potential for best-in-class differentiation here from other SSA competitors. It's highly potent with picomolar level potency for activating the receptor in vitro while also being highly selective for SSTR2 compared to a wide range of other targets tested, including other semastatin receptors as well as other G-protein-coupled receptors. So based on the preclinical studies, XL-557 really appears to have very low potential for drug-drug interactions. And again, that highlights the potential for giving it in combination with other therapies such as at 557 was nominated as a development candidate earlier this year and is currently in IND-enabling studies with IND filing expected next year.
So Chan, turning to you now, I'm interested to hear your views on this profile and how you think XL-557 could be or would be received by the community of net treaters and patients.
Yes. No, I think it's really exciting to hear about this agent. I think for patients not having to come in every month, not having to get an injection in a really uncomfortable area. I think that will be really meaningful for patients and their quality of life. I think as you think about the mechanism of action and how it's working. I think that it really has the potential to overcome against some of the challenges that we see where we wonder about drug delivery and issues with not having adequate target engagement. So you might have some breakthrough symptoms or even some loss of disease control when it relates to progression. So I think it's really exciting to hear about this, and I'm looking forward to seeing how this gets developed.
Great. Thanks for your views on that. We're also really excited to see this move forward. And we see potential for it to potentially have impact really across the treatment continuum in this landscape. So let's see. So as we've heard from you and as well as others, many net patients will receive an SSA across their treatment journey and an orally available SSTR2 agonist, like 557 would potentially give us an opportunity to really broadly impact these patients and bring benefits. So outside of zansa XL-557, we're also very excited about the prospect for another molecule in our pipeline and its potential in neuroendocrine cancers. And this molecule is called XB-773. This is a novel and highly innovative antibody drug conjugate targeting DLL3, a target known to be expressed across a range of neuroendocrine carcinomas including small cell lung cancer. Now DLL3 as a target is known to be highly expressed in other neuroendocrine neoplasms, including neuroendocrine prostate cancer as well as other neuroendocrine carcinomas. Despite a lot of competition in this area, we're really excited about the potential for this molecule to show best-in-class differentiation in the clinic. The molecule has a smaller VHH Fc format compared to traditional ADCs and novel site-specific linker chemistry, which in preclinical models displays much more efficient payload delivery to tumor cells compared to ADC competitors in side-by-side experiments.
So we've also observed an excellent safety profile in the preclinical models leading to, frankly, the best preclinical therapeutic index we've ever seen with any ADC to date in our hands, which we think sets this molecule up for success, both as a single agent and in combination potentially supporting use in earlier lines and settings. So just turning briefly back to you again, Chan. Can you please tell us a little bit about the unmet needs for patients with neuroendocrine carcinomas and also comment on the potential opportunities for differentiated ADC like XB-773 for these patients?
Yes. I think I'm really glad to see you with an interest in neuroendocrine carcinomas because this really is a patient population that is really tough to treat. I think it's aggressive disease. And I think the treatments that we have are really limited. We use chemotherapy. But I think what we recognize with chemotherapy is that benefits and the durability of control that we get from chemotherapy is quite short. We've been actually really desperate for new strategies to treat neurotrophin carcinomas and new targets. I think what we've seen building on what's been seen with small cell. DLL3 is really probably 1 of the most attractive targets that we've seen on our different carcinomas. And I think what we've seen in the small cell lung cancer base where DLL3 targeting agent can improve survival. That's really encouraging.
And I think that gives us hope that we'll see something similar for the extrapulmonary neuroendocrine carcinomas. As you mentioned, there are different ways to target DLL3. So I think although there is, as you mentioned, a lot of interest in other agents being developed in this space. I think to hear about XB773 and how it -- they have a really good safety and efficacy profile that I think is really encouraging. I think it will be important to think about using agents together. I think given the biology and the aggressiveness of neurotophicarcinoma is, I think, being able to look at combination strategies and earlier line therapies is going to be really important.
Great. Thanks. We're certainly excited as well. And when we're really looking forward to filing the IND for that next year and getting the Phase I underway. So at this point, I'd like to now turn it back over to P.J. to close out this portion of the discussion with some insights on future commercial opportunities with our net franchise.
Well, great. Well, first and foremost, Dr. Chan, I'd like to thank you so much for joining us today for your valuable perspective and your feedback. And certainly, for your great collaboration over the years and your commitment and efforts that have moved forward the standard of care for patients with neuroendocrine malignancies. So I just want to give you the opportunity to say a few a few words before you go on with your day.
Yes. Well, thanks again. Thanks for having me with you today. And I think back to this long collaboration that I've had with Exelixis, and it's really, I think it's been great to see how things have evolved from the Phase II trial of just 60 or so patients in Boston to now kind of expanding across the world.
So I've been glad to have your support for now many years. I appreciate the estate dedication you have to the neuroendocrine field, and it's actually really exciting for me to see about some of the agents that are in your pipeline. I think neuroendocrine tumors are -- they are not a common disease. So there's not a lot of interest in supporting the endocrine that we see in some of the other common cancers. So I really appreciate your commitment to the space and to us those investigators and to the patients.
Great. Well, thank you very much, Dr. Chan. Have a wonderful day. We appreciate it. Great. Well, now I have the opportunity to speak to our neuroendocrine franchise vision. Dr. Chan mentioned, it's not the most common malignancy -- but it's interesting. We kind of think of neuroendocrine tumors really the way we thought of RCC a decade ago. I think many didn't think that, that would grow so much as we saw in the previous section, the RCC market grew tremendously in the past decade.
Currently, the neuroendocrine tumor market in 2024 was about $2.5 billion. We see that in the U.S. We see that as having the opportunity to grow to $7 billion in 2035. And obviously, excited to now be a part of that with CABOMETYX approved this year in net, but even more excited in terms of zanzolitinib going into earlier lines of therapy in terms of other pipeline agents because that's how we have the opportunity to really help patients and ultimately have commercial opportunities by raising the standard of care. And we see the neuroendocrine market really is analogous to RCC and Exelixis' ability to kind of tap into that and do that and really benefit patients, hopefully down the road with many different assets.
So we're thrilled with that, and this kind of wraps up now the neuroendocrine portion of our day. And with that, I have the honor to turn it back over to Dana to share some -- a few more updates on the pipeline outside of these 3 core areas that we've discussed. So Dana?
Great. Thanks very much, P.J. So we've spoken a lot today in detail about our renal cell carcinoma, colorectal carcinoma and neuroendocrine franchises, which are really at the core of our portfolio strategy.
So let's shift gears now and highlight a couple of areas of the pipeline that we think have great potential to advance standards of care in other areas of solid tumor oncology. So a key component of our strategy is to continuously assess the solid tumor landscape with the goal of identifying additional opportunities to build leadership in other tumor areas, prioritizing compounds and/or studies that can make the greatest impact for benefiting patients.
So as a way to illustrate that strategic approach, I'd like to highlight 2 opportunities in our pipeline that we think have strong potential to really move the needle for solid tumor patients with high unmet needs. So first, I'll discuss a planned Phase II study to evaluate zanzolitinib in recurrent minigeoma. This is a high unmet need population where zansa has the potential to be the first and only approved systemic therapy.
And then I'll shift gears and share some exciting early clinical data for XB-010, our 5T4 targeted ADC which may be broadly applicable for patients across several different solid tumor indications. So focusing first on Goma -- this is the most common intracranial neoplasm with an incidence of around 40,000 patients in the U.S. annually. Most of these tumors are barely benign or indolent but about 1/4 are aggressive and typically recur within 3 years. There is a significant unmet need in the recurrent setting with no approved systemic therapies available for patients. And while treatment guidelines recommend several targeted therapy options, none of those options have shown meaningful response rates in clinical trials in this setting.
A key part of the rationale for investigating in this space really comes from some work done here as usual for us with zanzolitinib, work done with cabozantinib, an initial finding of regression of meningioma in a patient being treated with cabo for their thyroid cancer led to further investigation in an investigator-sponsored trial, where really a game-changing response rate has begun to emerge. That trial is still enrolling. But in the first handful of patients or several handfuls of patients the data have really captured our attention and really helped shine a light on the unmet need for us in these patients and the potential for a compound like zanzolitinib and with its target profile in this space.
So this slide shows the design of the STELLAR-201 study, which is a planned single-arm Phase II study that will evaluate zansa in patients with [indiscernible] who have relapsed or progressed following surgery and radiation. The primary endpoint here is objective response rate, with secondary endpoints, including duration of response, progression-free survival and overall survival. We expect to initiate this study in the mid-2026 time frame and are also planning a confirmatory Phase III study to help confirm the benefit of zanzolitenib in this setting in a randomized trial.
So if successful, this approach could lead to zansa becoming the first and only approved systemic therapy for this patient population really in need of better options. So let's shift gears now and briefly focus on 1 of our earlier pipeline assets, XB-010. So this is our 5T4 targeted antibody drug conjugate, which is conjugated to monomethyl auristatin E payload, which is currently being evaluated in a Phase I clinical trial. We like 5T4 as an ADC target because of its high levels of expression across a range of tumor types with limited expression on normal tissues. XB-010 comprises a high affinity 5T4 targeting monoclonal antibody that uses next-generation site-specific conjugation and linker payload technology requiring 21 cleavage events with enzymes expressed inside tumor cells.
This gives us a very clean ADC approach with very little leakage of the payload in the systemic circulation. So we're excited about this molecule as it really represents another differentiated approach in our pipeline. And specifically, to this target, potentially leading to the first and best first and best-in-class status for targeting 5T4 expressing tumors. The Phase I trial for XB-010 initiated last year and is progressing quite well in the clinic with dose expansion now underway.
So let's take a closer look now and an example of how XB-010 is performing in the clinic. This is a case study of a patient treated in dose escalation with XB-010. The patient was diagnosed with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma in 2017 and was heavily pretreated prior to enrolling in our Phase I study, having previously received numerous systemic therapies, including prior taxane therapy.
In response to single-agent XB-010 every 3 weeks. This patient achieved a partial response at week 7, which was subsequently confirmed at week 13, with a substantial tumor lesion reduction shown in these scans. This is particularly interesting given that the patient had progressed on a chemotherapy with a mechanism of action similar to the payload on XB-010. So we think these early data really suggest that XB-010 has the potential to show benefit across 5T4 expressing tumors, and we look forward to presenting further data as the Phase I trial mature as the Phase I trial matures. So these are just 2 examples of how our strategy focuses our R&D efforts on compounds and studies that have the highest potential for moving the needle for patients.
And hopefully, we will be able to show you more as compounds could continue to progress and trials continue to come into our our view. So with that, I'll now hand it back over to Mike for a few closing remarks.
All right. I'm back. Great work guys. Thank you so much really grateful to have the discussion between Dana and P.J and our clinical experts today give you a sense of where we're at, where we're going, the clinical nuances and the strategy behind how we're trying to build important new franchises to complement cabozantinib and take us to the next level of impact for both patients and shareholders.
So a couple of brief remarks before we close, I'll just remind everybody following up on the last couple of comments from Dana, that we rigorously and stringently prioritize what we do, how we do it, when we do it, how much we invest in doing it to be able to maximize value for patients and shareholders, again, improved standard of care because that's the only way we'll be able to really monetize and create value for our shareholders from the standpoint of investing in the winter.
So we have a lot of internal expertise there. As you all know, we've done that historically. We bet on cabo early when everybody else gave up back in 2014, 2015, and I think that's paid off handsomely in terms of approvals, very impactful label. You heard from our critical experts today, the role cabo can have in different tumor types in both GU and GI and we're certainly looking to do that again and again and again across the portfolio.
So more of that's on the way. We're going to pick the winners. We're going to maximize success and continue to move forward. I won't spend too much time on this slide. It's kind of a lead behind from the standpoint of key upcoming milestones for the Pivotals, the Anza development program. You've heard this commented on and really opined upon today, so I won't read every line, I'll just, I guess, reiterate the obvious is that we're looking to do a lot here, both in terms of existing and soon to start pivotal trials, but a whole range of new potential indications kind of Phase II enabling trials that can get us into new indications, new combinations, areas of high unmet medical need with our strong focus of our commercial lens to be able to understand where we can maneuver and bring the most value to patients and shareholders.
So again, as these trial starts, we will update you on that and certainly very excited to, again, move the needle and collaborate further across the GU, GI and net space. So our last slide today, again, has kind of a pictorial illustration of how we can achieve this aspirational vision for success going from where we are today with CABOMETYX to where we hope to be in the future with this pipeline of franchise molecules covering, again, 5x, 10x more patients than we currently cover with cabo across many, many more tumor types and across a portfolio of pipeline of franchise molecules. Again, keep in mind, we're going to establish, expand and entrench important new franchises across the pipeline as we build value for patients and shareholders.
So thrilled to have the opportunity today to talk to you about our strategy behind building franchises. And now our job is to get back to work in the lab and the clinic and make that happen for patients and shareholders.
So I want to close here. First, I want to thank everybody involved in putting on this production today. Certainly, Dana and P.J and our clinical experts Tony and Anwar and Chan did a phenomenal job of having a discussion around our strategy and our focus. I want to thank the entire Exelixis team led by Susan Hubbard and Andrew Peters, Deborah Leong and Alice Redick did a great job of helping us pull these slides together, pulling our messages together.
Lindsay Treadway was intimately involved in making this happen on a minute-by-minute basis, and I want to certainly thank our friends at Wilson Dow for putting together a phenomenal production that I hope you enjoyed and I hope you'll have a chance to look at as we go forward in the future.
So we'll stop there. Hope you all have a great holidays, and I look forward to seeing you in San Francisco in January, okay? All the best. Thank you.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Special Call - Exelixis, Inc.
Exelixis, Inc. — Special Call - Exelixis, Inc.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Exelixis stellte auf dem 2025 R&D Day die Franchise-Strategie vor: Wachstum über mehrere Wirkstoffklassen (TKI, Biologika, ADCs, Bispezifische) und Fokus auf drei Tumorfranchen – Nierenzellkarzinom (RCC), kolorektales Karzinom (CRC) und neuroendokrine Tumoren (NET).
- Priority: Kapitalallokation und „Pick-the-winner“-Ansatz: near‑term Ertrag aus CABOMETYX (cabo) und STELLAR‑303/Zansa als nächster Hebel.
🔍 Strategische Highlights
- Zansa-Differenz: Zanzolitinib (zansa) soll kürzere Halbwertszeit, bessere Tumor‑/Normgewebe‑Verteilung und höhere MET‑Potenz bieten, was Management und klinische Experten als Basis für bessere Toleranz und Kombinierbarkeit darstellen.
- Pipeline‑Breite: 7 geplante/laufende label‑enabling Studien für zansa; frühe Kandidaten XB‑628 (PD‑L1/NKG2A Bispezifisch), XB‑371 (DLL3 ADC), XB‑010 (5T4 ADC) und XL‑557 (oral SSTR2‑Agonist) treiben Mid‑/Long‑term Wachstum.
- Franchise‑Fokus: Ziel ist, CABOMETYX‑Erfolg zu replizieren: etablieren, expandieren, entrenchen – primär in RCC, CRC und NET mit Ziel, mehrere Blockbuster‑Moleküle zu entwickeln.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- NDA‑Status: Einreichung der NDA für zansa basierend auf STELLAR‑303 (CRC; Kombi zansa+atezolizumab) wurde bestätigt; STELLAR‑303 zeigte im ITT ein HR 0.80 (≈20% Mortalitätsreduktion), medianes OS 10,9 vs. 9,4 Monate.
- Pivotalpläne: Wichtige Phase‑III‑Programme: STELLAR‑304 (non‑clear cell RCC), Light Spark‑033 (post‑adjuvantes RCC, zansa+belzutifan vs cabo, OS als Kofaktor) und STELLAR‑316 (adjuvantes CRC, ctDNA‑gesteuert) sind geplant/laufend.
- Early‑Stage‑Fortschritt: XB‑628 Phase‑I in Dosiseskalation; XB‑010 zeigt bereits eine bestätigte partielle Remission in einem stark vorbehandelten HNO‑Patienten; XL‑557 (oral SSTR2‑Agonist) IND‑vorbereitung.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Relevanz: Das Event war ein strategisches Update, kein Datendump: Exelixis positioniert zansa als nächsten kommerziellen Treiber und baut parallel ein diversifiziertes Franchise‑Portfolio auf. Kurzfristig treiben Zulassungserwartungen für zansa den Wert; mittelfristig entscheidet sich die Aktie an der Fähigkeit, mehrere Programme (STELLAR‑Serien, XB‑Kandidaten, XL‑557) erfolgreich zu entwickeln und kommerziell zu skalieren.
Exelixis, Inc. — Guggenheim Securities 2nd Annual Healthcare Innovation Conference
1. Question Answer
Welcome to this next fireside chat with Exelixis. With us today, we have Mike Morrissey, President and CEO. Mike, welcome. Thanks for joining us again.
Great to be here, Michael. Thanks for the invite. Before we begin, I'll be making forward-looking statements. So please see our SEC filings for a description of the risks that we face in our business.
Sounds good. Great. Thank you, Mike. So Mike, there are a lot of moving parts at Exelixis. You have the commercial story with CABOMETYX. You have recent and upcoming data card flips for zanzalintinib, your key pipeline product, and you have an evolving early-stage pipeline. And so before we jump into Q&A, could you just provide us with a quick introduction and contextualize where Exelixis stands as a company today?
I'd be happy to. Thank you. Good morning. Good to see you again. Great to be here, kind of a rainy day in Boston. So I'll hopefully provide some illumination. Yes. So let's talk about Exelixis. Let's talk about earnings that we had last week, kind of set the stage for all the other topics and where we're going as we close out '25 heading into '26.
We're a midsized commercial stage biotech company focused exclusively in oncology. We have kind of ridden the roller coaster of ups and downs over the last 25 years, the last 10 years in terms of how we've been able to navigate the discovery, clinical, regulatory and then commercial landscape within oncology. It's been really illuminating and I think very important to think about where we came from to kind of frame where we're going, right? But again, Q3 call was last Tuesday, had a really strong quarter. We did $543 million in net product revenue. Majority of that is the base business, driven by the success we have in kidney cancer. Really excited about what's happening with NET.
We'll talk about that, I'm sure, throughout the next few minutes. NET's gotten off to a great start. So their second full quarter marketing based upon the approval we got at the end of Q1. The vector looks strong. I think we grew 50% Q-over-Q. We have a greater than 40% market share in terms of new patient starts, clearly, the molecule of choice in the oral therapy segment, which after a couple of months of launch is, I think, pretty impressive. And we think we'll exceed $100 million in sales.
So it really kind of gets -- kind of frames the opportunity that we've got. Total revenues for the quarter were a little bit shy of $600 million global revenues for the brand between us and our partners was $750 million, $760 million. So really blockbuster status. We have 7 indications in the label, obviously. So a great platform to be on. But again, we're never content. We're never satisfied. Our goal is to build a pipeline of franchise molecules using the lens from cabo to be able to help us navigate how we do that.
We think zanza is the next one up, and we've got a deep pipeline that will, I'm sure, talk about today in a lot more detail at R&D Day in a few weeks to kind of frame where that's going. But we're looking for -- we're looking to build one franchise after another. That's how you build value for patients. Obviously, if we do that successfully, our shareholders will also value -- accrue value from that as well.
And it's all about the right molecules, the right trials, the right combinations, the right indications, right lines of therapy in a way that we can with very disciplined expense management and very focused on returning cash to shareholders as an important priority, continue to build the business. So we're thrilled to be here and thrilled to be working as an organization to help patients with cancer.
Great. Maybe just a couple of follow-up questions. So the net launch for cabo is going well, as you mentioned, you talked about this $100 million incremental additional sales this year for the full year. Maybe talk a bit more about what you're seeing in terms of how cabo is used in neuroendocrine tumors in the first few months in the market? And then also from a prescriber perspective, are these mostly -- talk about sort of the footprint there. Are these mostly prescribers that have already used cabo in other indications? Or are there perhaps new prescribers that specifically focus on GI tumors?
Yes. So across the board, again, we've had, I think, a really successful launch. As you're familiar, the CABINET data covered a pretty broad population of patients. It accrued. It enrolled over 6-plus years and standard of care was evolving in that time. So when I think about all the different subsets of patients and clinical phenotypes and past therapies, I think we cover the vast majority of those different ways of kind of treating patients.
So in terms of prior therapies, in terms of tumor of origin, a site of origin, in terms of how these patients present with their disease, we really cover all the bases. So I think what happened is in the -- I'm going to sneeze here, I could feel it coming, so I apologize in advance. The opportunity for cabo is to really cover as wide a swath of potential opportunities as possible because we've just covered so many of those kinds of patients in the trial.
And we're seeing that in the commercial setting. In terms of prescribers, there's a healthy mix of academics and in the community because this is a very indolent disease and these patients can live a long time. You see a good mix of that distribution in the field. And that, to be quite frank, is one of the reasons why we want to left shift and expedite kind of building out the entire GI sales force now with the opportunity to launch 2 drugs potentially in 2 different indications in successive years. We want to maximize the kind of the area under the curve for NET as much as we can before the CRC opportunity potentially comes online. And then if and when that happens, then put all of our focus there, right?
So it makes a lot of sense to be able to do that. And it's an incremental build for us. But our commercial team is so strong and so strong. So just finally integrated into the organization, it's a relatively easy build to be able to get that done and get that moving fast. So we're excited about net. Not satisfied again, but can certainly see a lot more growth there going forward, and that's the goal.
Could you talk a bit more about this expansion into the GI space? Sort of how big is this additional build as you put it, in terms of your marketing infrastructure relative to your existing?
Yes. So we're not going to go into details for competitive reasons. Look, we have -- we've always viewed our ability to navigate and compete commercially with the idea that you can't go in half baked, especially in something like kidney cancer and expect to hold your own with all the big players with half a team, right? So we've from the beginning, from the outset, invested heavily and appropriately to be able to compete, right? So now adding another component to our sales force and some more marketing people here, comm ops people there, market access over there. It's an incremental build based upon the foundation.
So we can do that, I think, in a very cost-efficient, time-efficient fashion. But the opportunity for growth is significant because then we cover that much more of the field, and we set the stage for future success with other indications as we go forward, too. So it's the right move. And the idea, I think we've really reframed the opportunity we didn't get a lot of credit back in the day when we were launching renal and certainly around the time of 9ER that we could compete. And the fact is with the right team and the right attitude and the right energy, you can move the needle, and we've done that now.
Maybe on that, so in neuroendocrine tumors, you spoke about a $1 billion TAM in the U.S. How much of that do you think you'd be able to capture before LOE in 2030?
Yes. So we haven't given that number yet. And again, from a competitive point of view, probably isn't wise to do that, at least not right now. But look, we want to be able to make cabo available to every appropriate patient when their physician thinks it's the right time for them and the patient, obviously, feels it's the right time for them to access and oral therapy.
And we think if that -- when it comes to that, we would like cabo to be at the forefront of their mind, and I think we've done that to a large degree. You mentioned before about prior prescribers. We talked about this a lot on past calls, past investor meetings. 80% of the net prescriber population has used cabo in the past. So they know how to use cabo. They know how to dose adjust. They know what to look for to maximize kind of that experience for the patient in terms of both efficacy and tolerability, quality of life. So we feel really good about that.
And we can track -- I won't go into the details, but it's pretty easy for us to track who's writing for NET based upon kind of their phenotypic approach to how they dose. And it's just -- it's a really important way to be able to help them talk to new prescribers about some of the things to look out for, right? So in a very compliant manner. So we're feeling really good about how that's going and having that much more momentum and kind of manpower in the field here can only help accelerate things as we go forward for sure.
Makes sense. All right. Then maybe shifting over to zanza, which is a key pipeline product for you. I think we all recently saw the data at ESMO in colorectal cancer, which were obviously positive.
Say that again, it was positive, right?
Yes, it was very positive. When we speak with docs, though, they really like using Lonsurf and bev, at least the ones that we speak with. And so as their go-to third-line CRC standard of care. And so maybe talk a bit more about how you and your team will detail zanza and atezo, specifically in the third-line setting.
Yes. How many docs do you talk to? How many KOLs? Yes, how many?
Fair amount.
Okay. Trade secret. There you go. Yes. Well, we talk to hundreds, if not more. We get very good reaction to the data. We have really strong interest in using that regimen from the standpoint of, number one, arguably longest median overall survival certainly compares with all the caveats of cross-trial comparisons compares well with other leading doublets in that space.
The trial details, in particular, matter when you kind of look at these things, again, with all the caveats, which everybody does, there are certain attributes around zanza, atezo that I think are really, I think, really exciting and really potentially very enabling. The one thing that we keep hearing time and time again in all of our market research is that physicians and patients are looking for an opportunity to use non-chemo-containing regimens and to access checkpoint inhibition to help attack their disease. And I think that's something that we've got, and we're excited to be able to appropriately navigate going forward as we go through our filing and our review and eventually hopefully get a label and can talk about and educate docs about the data.
So the ITT population one, the nivolumab population is a dual primary endpoint. We're still accruing overall survival events there. All the data was in the ESMO presentation in the Lancet paper, came pretty close at the interim. So again, we have to run that experiment all the way through if we're fortunate enough to win in that population as well, and that would be another strong message to be able to send as we go out and potentially market the drug post approval. So we're excited about that. We think it's a very, very important first step.
Right now, it's at least by our take, it's a $1 billion opportunity in the U.S. We think that could grow considerably with better therapies, with more contemporaneous pricing, maybe better duration as well. So it wouldn't surprise us to see this segment grow over time. And then again, in the theme of building franchises because that's what we do, moving up in therapy. This post-chemo adjuvant study that we're going to start early next year. It will be STELLAR-316. We think is a really, really cool idea, addresses a large population of patients who are at high risk for progression post adjuvant chemotherapy that we think we could help a lot as well.
So the whole idea of building a franchise cabo or like we're doing with zanza across tumor types, across combinations, across lines of therapy, but then also come in with other molecules for colon cancer that we're excited about, whether it be 628, our bispecific for PD-L1 and NKG2 or for, say, XB371 tissue factor with exatecan payload, really reinforcing the idea that we can go the other diagon or the other dimension to be able to find franchise wins as well.
Right. So with the -- I think you talked about the NDA submission by the end of this year. What are your plans for ex U.S. or rest of world commercialization for zanza?
Yes. So we're going to navigate that carefully and be very thoughtful about how we do that. Obviously, there's lots of moving pieces in terms of ex U.S. issues. So we'll take our time and do that in a very thoughtful, pragmatic manner. Where we're at today versus, say, where we're at in 2015, 2016 with the cabo situation couldn't be more different. So we have to do the right thing by patients, the right thing in terms of the business, and we're going to figure that out over the next few months.
Okay. And then yes, maybe just trying to understand some of the other opportunities for zanza. You just mentioned the adjuvant colorectal study that you announced on the earnings call. Maybe just talk about the thought process behind going just into that specific setting, just contextualize the opportunity perhaps relative to other treatment settings in colorectal.
Yes, sure. So when we think about the opportunity, right, any opportunity, we think about the unmet medical need, the competition in terms of what's happening in that space, where standard of care is and really the upside in terms of the -- how the epi in terms of the number of patients could transform into value creation if we're successful.
So I think this is one example where when you think about how CRC has evolved over the last several years, this is the one open space in terms of a post-adjuvant setting where a pretty healthy number of patients who get surgery and then get adjuvant chemotherapy post surgery in the first-line setting are at high risk for progression, right? So patients who are not metastatic after surgery then have by various technologies, in this case, looking at ctDNA and their MRD status have the ability and the opportunity to actually -- they're at high risk for progression.
And if you could impact that with a molecule like zanza, either by itself or in combination with a checkpoint inhibitor, could bring not only great value to them in the short term in terms of blocking that progressive step, but potentially over many, many, many months, right? That's the opportunity. And obviously, we have to not prove that. But the idea that surgery and chemotherapy, unfortunately, is not curative, gives us an opportunity to move into a space that is right now wide open with thousands of patients who you can basically select with a molecular test to be able to say, okay, out of all these patients, this fraction of them, and it's a pretty healthy fraction of patients over time could be impacted.
So we're excited about that. Again, if we've proven survival with a late-line metastatic setting in third line plus CRC with 303, then the idea of taking that approach and the zanza part of that by itself and maybe on top of a checkpoint inhibitor moving that up where the tumor volume is so small, you can't measure it radiographically. I think it's a great way to, again, build value for patients potentially and if we're successful, build value for shareholders.
Okay. Then maybe just a question on non-clear cell RCC was really your next card flip on zanza in the first half of next year. What is the size of that opportunity perhaps relative to clear cell RCC?
Non-clear cell RCC is -- about 15% of overall RCC population in the U.S.
So just clear, 15%.
Yes, 15%. choking here in my water.
And so please take a break now. Cabo actually has NCCN listing in non-clear cell as I understand it. In general, sort of yes, maybe talk a bit more about the STELLAR-304 study and how it would position zanza there relative to other treatment options.
Yes. So all the approved drugs for kidney cancer for RCC are approved for advanced RCC. The vast majority of the data has been generated in the clear cell population. There's been, to our knowledge, to my knowledge, no pivotal trial, global randomized pivotal trial that's been implemented, executed, looking at a discrete non-clear cell population. So this is the first one. Everything else is covered by the existing clear cell kind of clear cell data in the labels for advanced RCC. So we think in terms of Level 1 evidence, if we're successful here, it would be a really, really strong data set and provide foundational data to support a broad utilization of that regimen. in that non-clear cell setting.
Okay. And then with STELLA-311, you're sort of doubling down in neuroendocrine tumors with zanza as well. It's a Phase II/III study, as I understand it. Maybe just walk us through the design and the endpoints of the study and also how it would be positioned relative to cabo.
Yes. So again, in the theme of thinking about building a franchise, and this will get certainly in the NET space kind of fleshed out further at R&D Day. We want to have more than one offering here that allows us to expand our footprint, build a deeper, thicker foundation around that space to be able to, again, maximize the value of individual investments in a way that then is, if not additive, certainly synergistic, right, as what the goal would be.
So think about how you could help build that market basket from a $2 billion, $2.5 billion size in 2024 to $7 billion, $8 billion, $9 billion in the 30s. And you do that with multiple compounds, multiple different lines of therapy, looking at different control arms and asking really at points of intervention as you go, how do you contribute to the patient experience in a positive sort of way.
So again, this one going from cabinet, which was cabo versus placebo, going to 311, which is zanza versus everolimus, where we've been obviously in other tumor types with cabo at least very successful in defeating. So again, if you can win against an active control, that de facto puts you up on people's radar in terms of using that earlier in the process, right? So simple ideas. Some of Jennifer Chan's early Phase II data in an earlier line setting back in the day, back in the 2015, '16 time frame looks really encouraging. So to be able to do that even better with zanza is very, I think, very encouraging, and that's the goal.
Right. Then just maybe one more on zanza. So clear cell RCC, as you all know, is obviously your stronghold, your core market for cabo, and there is an opportunity for zanza. You have announced this partnership with Merck to perhaps combine with belzutifan there, which is a new mechanism drug in RCC. And so yes, just talk about potential plans there. And I know you're sort of -- I think you said you're on track to launch -- or Merck is on track to launching the studies, as I understand it. Is that correct?
Yes.
So how does a belzutifan combo fit into the evolving landscape in RCC? There's a lot of combinations that are being evaluated, especially by Merck.
Yes, sure. Well, it's a very dynamic playing field right now. It was dynamic 2 weeks ago. It was dynamic 2 years ago, it was dynamic 10 years ago, right? So -- and that shouldn't surprise anybody, right? If we're all charged with one simple task, and that's to improve the standard of care for patients with cancer. And everybody does that by themselves in combination with others, their own molecules, combining molecules from different portfolios. We've done that. Everyone's done that, right?
So -- and we're certainly a leader in that space, and that will continue. We're thrilled to work with Merck here in terms of zanza and bells. We're having numerous conversations with other companies for other type assets where RCC is front and center in terms of how we could maneuver in terms of these clinical collaborations. We've talked a lot about those in the past with cabo. I mean that was a big part of the cabo story was our collaborations on the clinical side, where it was combine and conquer without sharing commercial kind of commercial rights. I've said this before, 9ER was probably in the ROI hall of fame from the standpoint of us spending about $0.25 on the dollar to run that trial and revenue went up by 2.5, almost threefold, right?
So we're excited to do this again here. We want to be able to win in renal now and in the future. We want to be able to win in colon in the future. We want to be able to win in NET in the future. The way we see building value is by building these franchises within molecules and within therapeutic indications that can help more patients and drive value for our shareholders.
Right. Well, great. Thanks, Mike. So I think we'll see you next at the R&D Day.
Okay. Look forward to it. Yes, for sure.
Yes. Thanks for the time today.
You bet. Thank you. Great to be here.
Thanks.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Guggenheim Securities 2nd Annual Healthcare Innovation Conference
Exelixis, Inc. — Guggenheim Securities 2nd Annual Healthcare Innovation Conference
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Exelixis präsentiert sich als mittelgroßes, kommerzielles Onkologieunternehmen mit starker CABOMETYX‑Ertragsbasis; NET‑Launch liefert rasches Wachstum. Zanzalintinib (zanza) ist das nächste zentrale Werttreiber‑Programm mit positiven ESMO‑Daten und klarer Franchise‑Strategie.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- COMmercial: CABOMETYX liefert robuste Umsätze; NET‑Launch wuchs stark (Management erwartet >$100M Zusatzumsatz für das Jahr) und >40% Anteil bei Neubehandlungen laut Management.
- Pipeline: Zanza: positive ESMO‑Daten in CRC, geplante NDA bis Jahresende, Kombinationen mit Checkpoint‑Inhibitoren und weitere Indikationsexpansionen (adjuvant, nccRCC, NET).
- Partnerschaften: Zusammenarbeit mit Merck (belzutifan) sowie weitere Kooperationsgespräche; gezielte, schrittweise internationale Kommerzialisierung angekündigt.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Konkretes: Management nannte Q3‑Ergebnisse: $543M Net‑Produktumsatz und globale Brand‑Revenues ~ $750–760M; NET wuchs Q‑on‑Q ~50% und Management erwartet >$100M Jahresumsatz aus NET.
- Timing: NDA für zanza bis Ende des Jahres geplant; erste Nicht‑Clear‑Cell‑RCC‑Daten/„card flip“ im ersten Halbjahr nächstes Jahr; adjuvante STELLAR‑316‑Studie soll früh 2026 starten.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- NET‑Uptake: Nachfrage nach Details zur Prescriber‑Mix (Akademisch vs Community) und zur Skalierung der GI‑Vertriebsmannschaft; Management gab strategische, keine quantitativen Baupläne preis.
- Zanza‑Position: Wie differenziert sich zanza+atezo gegenüber Lonsurf+Bev in Drittlinie CRC? Management betonte Nicht‑Chemo‑Regime und OS‑Signal, verweigerte aber konkrete Marktanteilsprognosen.
- Kommerzialisierung: Fragen zu ex‑US‑Strategie und Detailausbau der Kommerzstruktur blieben bewusst vage; Partnerschaftsansatz und schrittweiser Rollout geplant.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Kurzfristig de‑riskieren starke CABOMETYX‑Umsätze die Aktie; mittel‑ bis langfristig hängt die Upside an zanza (Zulassung, Labelumfang, kommerzielle Umsetzung) sowie an erfolgreichen Studiendurchführungen. Wichtige Trigger: NDA‑Einreichung, kommende Studiendaten und konkrete Kommerz‑Pläne für GI/Ex‑US.
Exelixis, Inc. — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Exelixis' Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. My name is Sherry, and I'll be your operator for today. As a reminder, this call is being recorded for replay purposes.
I would now like to turn the call over to your host for today, Ms. Susan Hubbard, Executive Vice President of Public Affairs and Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Thank you, Sherry, and thank you all for joining us for the Exelixis' Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call.
Joining me on today's call are Mike Morrissey, our President and CEO; and Chris Senner, our Chief Financial Officer; Dana Aftab, our Executive Vice President of Research and Development; and P.J. Haley, our Executive Vice President of Commercial, who will review our progress for the Third Quarter 2025 ended October 3, 2025.
During the call today, we will refer to financial measures not calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles. Please refer to today's press release, which is posted on our website for an explanation of our reasons for using such non-GAAP measures as well as tables deriving these measures from our GAAP results. During the course of this presentation, we will be making forward-looking statements regarding future events and the future performance of the company. This includes statements about possible developments regarding discovery, product development, regulatory, commercial, financial and strategic matters, potential growth opportunities and government drug pricing policies and initiatives.
Actual events or results could, of course, differ materially. We refer you to the documents we file from time to time with the SEC, which, under the heading Risk Factors, identify important factors that cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed by the company verbally and in writing today, including, without limitations, risks and uncertainties related to product commercial success, market competition, regulatory review and approval processes, conducting clinical trials, compliance with applicable regulatory requirements, our dependence on collaborative partners and the level of cost associated with discovery, product development, business development and commercialization activities.
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.
All right. Thank you, Susan, and thanks to everyone for joining us on the call today. Exelixis had a strong third quarter, building on our progress from the first half of 2025. Accelerating R&D momentum coupled with flawless commercial execution has the potential to transform our business as we bring new treatment options to patients and build value for shareholders. The entire Exelixis team is committed to building a best-in-class multi-franchise oncology business, and all corporate activities are aligned on a single focus to improve the standard of care for patients with cancer.
Our future success will be accelerated by increasing the number of cancer patients served with current and future Exelixis medicines and the impact we have on their disease. The cabozantinib business has never been stronger and we're pleased to see zanzalintinib move to center stage with our first big clinical success in CRC. Key highlights for the third quarter include: first, continued robust performance of the cabozantinib U.S. business with strong growth in demand and revenue from our commercial activities, cabozantinib maintained its leadership position as the top TKI for RCC and importantly, shows consistent growth in the first-line segment. U.S. Cabo franchise net product revenues grew approximately 14% year-over-year to $543 million in the third quarter 2025 compared to $478 million in the third quarter of 2024.
Global Cabo franchise and their product revenues generated by Exelixis and our partners were approximately $739 million in the third quarter of 2025 compared with $653 million in the third quarter of 2024. We're excited by the broad adoption of cabo for the recently approved net indications and have already built a leading position in the oral second-line plus NET segment with a greater than 40% new patient share based on market research. Cabo demand in neuroendocrine tumors grew about 50% and contributed approximately 6% of our third quarter business.
With the strong foundation, we expect to exceed $100 million in revenue for the net indication in 2025. Based on our early success in the net launch, and with other GI opportunities on the horizon, we're expediting the full build-out of our GI sales team starting in fourth quarter 2025 to accelerate the growth of the CABINET indication before zanza comes to the forefront.
We think this enhancement could be an important component of our growth narrative in 2026 and speaks to the confidence we have in both cabo and zanza as we closed out 2025. P.J. will provide more information and commentary about our third quarter franchise performance and encouraging dynamics of the net launch in his prepared remarks.
Second, zanzalintinib is rapidly advancing as our next oncology franchise opportunity and the focus of seven ongoing and soon to start pivotal trials. We've continued to prioritize zanza with existing and new indications and combinations as potentially the most promising and expeditious path to a second Exelixis oncology franchise and one that we believe can eclipse the size, scope and impact of our cabozantinib business.
Importantly, we're engaged in numerous clinical trial discussions for zanza that could expand the scope and reach of our zanza pivotal trial efforts. We're thrilled with the positive results for STELLAR-303 and CRC and intend to file in this indication with regulators as quickly as possible. We understand the nuances of the CRC market in the U.S. and believe we can effectively navigate the intricacies of this complicated disease and the current competitive dynamics pending approval.
I'll remind everyone of the important messages from the full data set presented at ESMO and published simultaneously in Lancet. Zanza in combination with atezo, but to the first clinical success in a non-MSI-high third-line plus CRC population when compared against a contemporary standard of care. I want to reiterate that four other checkpoint containing regimens failed to achieve this goal. Market research underscores that late-line CRC patients are interested in utilizing immune checkpoint inhibition to attack the disease head on.
So the zanza-atezo combo could represent a meaningful advance. The absolute magnitude of the overall survival benefit in the ITT population with the zanza-atezo combination is notable, especially in the context of the offering the potential of a non-chemo containing regimen. We're especially pleased with the magnitude of benefit in patients with prior bevacizumab treatment since the vast majority of CRC patients in the U.S. received bevacizumab as part of their first and/or second line treatment regimens. Tolerability and safety of the zanza-atezo combination is consistent with other TKI checkpoint combinations. The 303 trial continues to include survival events in the non-liver met subgroup and we expect to trigger the final analysis for non-liver met patients in midyear 2026.
And again, as you'll hear from Dana, seven ongoing and new zanza pivotal trials are in the queue to address important unmet medical needs for known and new indications across multiple lines of therapy. The Exelixis early-stage pipeline continues to progress quickly with a range of new and potentially differentiated biologics and small molecules heading into and through early clinical evaluation. Dana will highlight these activities today at a high level, and you can expect additional details on these efforts along with our zanza pivotal trial update at our upcoming R&D Day on December 10.
Finally, we continue to carefully manage capital allocation while advancing our R&D and commercial priorities. Our balance sheet and expected free cash flows remain strong and provide us with the opportunity to advance our pipeline priorities while we return cash to shareholders. We plan to repurchase shares when we believe they are undervalued, and we're pleased that we have been authorized to repurchase an additional $750 million of our shares.
So with that, please see our press release issued an hour ago for our third quarter 2025 financial results and an extensive list of key corporate milestones achieved in the quarter. And I'll now turn the call over to Chris.
Thanks, Mike. For the third quarter of 2025, the company reported total revenues of approximately $598 million, which included cabozantinib franchise NET product revenues of approximately $543 million. CABOMETYX net product revenues were approximately $540 million. Gross net for the cabozantinib franchise in the third quarter 2025 was 30.4%. During the quarter, we experienced higher deductions from revenue related to 340B discounts offset by lower Medicare and co-pay assistance expenses. We continue to project that our gross to net for the cabozantinib franchise will be approximately 30% for the year.
Trade inventory at the end of the third quarter, 2025 was approximately 2 weeks on hand, which was lower when compared to the second quarter of 2025. Total revenues also included approximately $54.8 million in collaboration revenues, which includes approximately $46.3 million in royalties earned from our partners, Ipsen and Takeda on their sales of cabozantinib in their respective territories. Our total operating expenses for the third quarter of 2025 were approximately $361 million compared to $355 million in the second quarter of 2025.
The sequential increase in these operating expenses was primarily driven by a $19.8 million restructuring charge we took during the third quarter. The increase in restructuring expense was partially offset by lower SG&A expenses. Provision for income taxes for the third quarter of 2025 was approximately $58.8 million compared to a provision for income taxes of approximately $45.6 million for the second quarter of 2025. The company reported GAAP net income of approximately $193.6 million or $0.72 per share basic and $0.69 per share diluted for the third quarter of 2025.
The company also reported non-GAAP net income of approximately $217.9 million or $0.81 per share basic and $0.78 per share diluted. Non-GAAP net income excludes the impact of approximately $24 million of stock-based compensation expense net of related income tax effect. Cash and marketable securities for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, were approximately $1.6 billion. During the third quarter of 2025, we repurchased approximately $99 million of the company's shares, resulting in the retirement of approximately 2.4 million shares at an average price per share of $41.69.
As of the end of the third quarter 2025, we had approximately $105 million remaining under the $500 million stock repurchase plan authorized by the company's Board in February 2025. On October 31, 2025, the company's Board authorized an additional share repurchase program totaling $750 million that expires at the end of 2026. We are updating our full year 2025 financial guidance, which is detailed on Slide 14 of our earnings presentation. We are narrowing our total revenue and net product revenue guidance to the upper end of our previously provided guidance ranges.
We are projecting that total revenue will be between $2.3 billion and $2.35 billion, and our net product revenue will be between $2.1 billion and $2.15 billion. We are tightening our cost of goods guidance to be approximately 4% of net product revenues. We are lowering our R&D expense guidance range by $75 million to $850 million to $900 million. We are tightening our SG&A expense guidance range to be between $500 million and $525 million. And finally, we are lowering our full year effective tax rate guidance to be between 17% and 18%.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Dana.
Thanks, Chris. First, I'd like to start by saying how excited I am to be leading the R&D organization. The energy and engagement across R&D is super high right now and the momentum that carried us into and through ESMO is continuing to drive our teams with an emphasis on execution and collaboration. Our focus in R&D is on maximizing the opportunities for our portfolio, including zanzalintinib and our earlier-stage pipeline of promising small molecules and biotherapeutics.
As I mentioned, we have a lot of momentum coming out of ESMO, primarily driven by our presentation of the results from the STELLAR-303 trial comparing the combination of zanzalintinib plus atezolizumab versus regorafenib in patients with non-microsatellite instability high or non-MSI high colorectal cancer who have received multiple prior therapies. As a brief reminder, the trial has dual primary endpoints designed to assess survival outcomes more broadly in the intention to treat or ITT population and more specifically in the population of patients without liver metastases, which we refer to as the NLM patients or population.
The study met one of its dual primary endpoints, demonstrating a 20% reduction in the risk of death with the combination in the ITT population at the final analysis with a stratified hazard ratio of 0.80, a 95% confidence interval of 0.69 to 0.93 and a p-value of 0.0045. At a median follow-up of 18 months, the median overall survival in the ITT population was 10.9 months with the combination of zanza plus atezo versus 9.4 months with rego.
The survival benefit with the combination was demonstrated early and was consistent throughout the Kaplan-Meier curve. The overall survival benefit with the zanza plus atezo combination was observed across all pre-specified subgroups with similar hazard ratios observed in key subgroups, including liver involvement, prior treatment with anti-VEGF therapy, geographic region and RAS mutation status. Data pertaining to the other dual primary endpoint of overall survival in the NLM population were immature at the data cutoff, but a prespecified interim analysis showed a trend in overall survival favoring the zanza plus atezo combination with a median of 15.9 months with the combination and 12.7 months with rego.
With a median follow-up of 16.8 months, the stratified hazard ratio for this analysis was 0.79 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.61 to 1.03 and a p-value of 0.0875. The trial will proceed to the planned final analysis for this endpoint, which our current projections indicate will be triggered around midyear 2026. The safety profile of the combination was consistent with other TKI/IO combinations with no new safety signals. And finally, we were thrilled to have the trial results published in the Lancet simultaneously with the ESMO presentation.
Needless to say, we are very excited about these results, which are highly impactful for a number of reasons. First, prior to the STELLAR-303 readout, there were 4 Phase III clinical trials in colorectal cancer that evaluated immunotherapy-containing regimens, all of which failed to show an overall survival benefit versus the standard of care in non-MSI-high patients, which comprise 95% of the overall colorectal cancer population. As the first and only Phase III trial to show an overall survival benefit compared to a standard of care in these patients, we believe STELLAR-303 demonstrates clear clinical differentiation of zanza from other TKIs and IO partners investigated in this space.
As a reminder, in addition to VEGF receptors, zanza simultaneously targets the TAM kinases and MET, which have been shown in preclinical models to drive the ability of tumors to evade antitumor immunity. We believe this differentiated mechanism of action is a key factor in the clinical differentiation of zanza compared to other kinase inhibitors investigated in this space and really underscores the franchise potential for zanza.
Second, it's certainly worth noting that to date, no other regimen has demonstrated a higher median overall survival in this setting. Again, in STELLAR-303, the combination of zanza plus atezo showed median overall survival values of 10.9 months in the ITT population and 10.5 months in patients who had received prior bevacizumab. And while we are conscious of the caveats associated with cross-trial comparisons, it's relative to observe that prior to STELLAR-303, the SUNLIGHT trial showed median overall survivals for TAS-102 plus bev of 10.8 months in the ITT population and only 9 months in the bev pretreated population.
We believe these are important data points to note, given that the majority of patients in the U.S. are receiving bev in earlier lines of treatment. And last but not least, being an immunotherapy-containing chemo-free regimen, if approved, zanza in combination with atezo could be an opportunity to switch mechanisms to a TKI/IO regimen after receiving chemo plus bev, which we have heard from investigators and key opinion leaders is an important potential choice for patients.
Thus, we certainly believe that the combination of zanza plus atezo has the potential for a very meaningful impact in this high unmet need population. That conviction has been driving our internal teams to work nonstop preparing for a potential NDA filing, which we intend to submit this December, pending the government reopening for business. We also intend to complete data collection and analysis for the dual primary endpoint of overall survival in the NLM population, which we anticipate will occur around midyear 2026.
Moving on to STELLAR-304. This is our pivotal study evaluating the combination of zanza plus nivolumab versus sunitinib in patients who have not yet received systemic therapy for their locally advanced or metastatic non-clear cell renal cell carcinoma. Based on the current event rate, we are anticipating top line results around midyear 2026. And if positive, those results could lead to the second NDA filing for zanzalintinib.
Regarding other clinical development activity for zanza, earlier this year, we initiated STELLAR-311, our Phase III trial evaluating zanza compared to everolimus as a first oral therapy in patients with neuroendocrine tumors, and that study is proceeding on schedule. Progress also continues with regard to the Phase II umbrella study being conducted by Merck in which the combination of zanza plus belzutifan is being evaluated in patients with previously treated metastatic RCC and two pivotal studies that Merck is running in clear cell renal cell carcinoma, evaluating zanza in combination with belz, and we anticipate these studies could start near the end of this year.
Regarding the next wave of pivotal studies for zanza, we expect to start two additional trials in 2026, one focused on patients with recurrent meningioma and one specifically investigating the adjuvant setting in colorectal cancer, where patients have been treated with surgery and chemotherapy but have a high risk of recurrence.
Given the demonstrated clinical differentiation we've seen with zanza and its potential to be the TKI of choice for combinations with IO, we're continuing to assess the landscape for additional opportunities for zanza development, and we look forward to sharing more details of these important opportunities as we get closer to launching the trials. Now shifting to our earlier -- early clinical pipeline. We have four molecules in this space that are currently in clinical development, namely XL309, XB010, XB628 and XB371.
And the Phase I studies for these early molecules are progressing well. In terms of new development candidates, we are continuing to advance exciting new small molecule and ADC programs, and I look forward to sharing more details about our early pipeline programs at the R&D Day event we're planning for December 10 this year. So with that, I'll turn the call over to P.J.
Thank you, Dana. The CABOMETYX business remained strong in the third quarter of 2025. And importantly, the launch in neuroendocrine tumors is off to a great start. Cabo continued to show growth in terms of revenue, demand and new patient starts and notably performed well relative to the competition. The team continued to execute at an extremely high level with CABOMETYX continuing to be the #1 prescribed TKI in renal cell carcinoma as well as the #1 TKI plus IO combination in first-line RCC. The prescription data in the oral TKI market basket of cabo, lenvatinib, axitinib, sunitinib and pazopanib convey the strength of cabo relative to the competition.
Looking at the TRx comparison of Q3 2024 to Q3 2025, CABOMETYX grew 4 share points from 42% to 46%. Importantly, CABOMETYX was the only product in the market basket to grow market share year-over-year. CABOMETYX TRx volume grew 21% in Q3 2025 relative to Q3 2024, outpacing the growth rate of the market basket, which was 13%. Importantly, CABOMETYX RCC business remains strong and continues to grow. The new indications for previously treated NETs are providing our experienced sales team great access to customers, and we're able to discuss both the CABINET data as well as the RCC CheckMate -9ER 5-year follow-up data with relevant physicians. The 9ER data presented at ASCO GU in February resonate with RCC space and help our team continue to drive differentiation from the competition in first-line RCC.
In fact, CABOMETYX plus nivolumab first-line new patient market share in the third quarter was the highest it has ever been. This momentum bodes well for future growth in terms of new patient starts and total demand as more first-line patients receive incremental refills and volume as we look forward into 2026. Turning to neuroendocrine tumors. Our market research and feedback from customers demonstrate that prescribers are excited for a new treatment option for their neuroendocrine tumor patients, the first broadly applicable new oral small molecule therapy in 9 years.
Physicians are responding positively to the broad net label in the contemporary trial design and perceive the efficacy and tolerability of the cabo data as favorable relative to the other small molecule therapies in the space. Prescribers are using cabo broadly across patient and tumor characteristics, including patients with neuroendocrine tumors arising in the pancreas, GI tract and lung across all tumor grades, functional and SSTR status and those who have received prior treatment with Lutathéra. The recent ESMO presentation of the lung subset data from the CABINET study continues to elucidate the cabo data in a segment of patients accounting for approximately 20% of NET who have a high unmet need, many of which test SSTR negative.
Turning to new patient market share for second-line plus neuroendocrine tumors in Q3. We are pleased that CABOMETYX has rapidly become the market leader in this segment with greater than 40% new patient share for oral therapies. This share is very encouraging so early in the launch, and we believe that new patient share should continue to increase. Over time, as more patients start therapy with cabo and receive refills, we believe demand will continue to grow. Neuroendocrine tumor demand contributed approximately 6% of total demand for cabo in Q3, and we expect that contribution to increase going forward.
Demand in neuroendocrine tumors increased by over 50% in Q3 relative to Q2. Finally, market research continues to indicate that CABOMETYX is viewed as the best-in-class oral therapy in neuroendocrine tumors. This perception is typically a leading indicator of prescribing behavior and gives us confidence that CABOMETYX new patient market share will continue to increase in coming quarters. This research finding aligns well with the anecdotal feedback our experienced sales team is receiving from their customers, many of whom are saying they will prescribe cabo for their NET patients once they progress and need a different systemic therapy.
Taken together, the data and customer feedback give us a high degree of confidence in the growth of CABOMETYX in neuroendocrine tumors. If we look at the cabo neuroendocrine tumor business, the revenue for 2025 is vectoring towards exceeding $100 million. This trajectory, taken together with the market uptake and enthusiasm provides great momentum for the business heading into 2026. As we think about building on and expanding our GI franchise, we are thrilled with the results of STELLAR-303. Pending regulatory approval, we believe that these data will provide Exelixis with a compelling commercial opportunity in colorectal cancer, one of the big four tumors.
Many physicians cite the availability of an immune checkpoint inhibitor for a broader population is important for their patients. They also view zanza as differentiated given the data and the fact that the combination of zanza plus atezo was successful in a cold tumor where other TKI plus ICI combinations have failed. With all the appropriate caveats for cross-trial comparisons, the median OS for zanza of 10.9 months is on par with Lonsurf plus Avastin bevacizumab from the SUNLIGHT study.
However, in the SUNLIGHT study, patients who had received prior bev had a median OS of only 9 months. The bev pretreated group will be relevant for the U.S. population as approximately 75% of patients have received bev before reaching the third-line setting, and most of these patients have received bev in both the first- and second-line settings. Exelixis has had numerous successful launches with cabo. We are excited to expand on the commercial capabilities we have built over the last decade and to build on our GI franchise, where we already have experience in hepatocellular carcinoma and neuroendocrine tumors.
As you know, we already have a significant GU presence. And for zanzalintinib, we would envision growing our GI infrastructure to a size and scale similar to our GU team. As Mike mentioned, we are expediting the build-out of our GI sales team as we see a great opportunity to continue to drive growth in the NET indication. Additionally, having a full GI team in place will provide important experience selling cabo as well as forming relationships with accounts to be ready for zanza. The incremental sales representatives will enable us to have greater reach in the community setting, which is a segment where our team has typically excelled. This build-out speaks to our confidence and excitement of CABOMET opportunity as well as zanzalintinib.
In closing, we are pleased with the cabo business, both in RCC and NETs. In neuroendocrine tumors, prescribers see CABOMETYX as a more favorable choice versus other previously approved small molecule therapies. Additionally, the competition in the oral segment of the NET market are generic therapies, which puts CABOMETYX at a significant advantage with a full commercial organization energized and supporting the launch.
All of this taken together drives our conviction that the NET market will be a substantial opportunity for the CABOMETYX business. We are pleased that CABOMETYX plus nivolumab has achieved the regimen with the highest market share ever in first-line RCC setting as this sets up the brand for continued growth in kidney cancer. And with that, I will turn the call back over to Mike.
All right. Thanks, P.J. We will wrap up here with a big shout out to the Exelixis' team to thank everyone for helping make our third quarter so successful. I'm pleased to see our collective commitment, focus and urgency continue at a high level as we advance our priorities across discovery, development and commercial activities.
On a personal note, after more than 35 years in the biopharma industry, Susan Hubbard, our EVP, Public Affairs and Investor Relations, has decided to retire to pursue her passions outside of her profession. We are incredibly fortunate that Susan joined us in 2014 with her depth of experience and broad expertise in both clinical and commercial.
She provided strong leadership and guidance to help us navigate all the twists and turns we've encountered over the years as we grew into the company we are today. And I personally, again, I'm very grateful for Susan as she's been my go-to thought partner for framing the Exelixis' narrative to all our various stakeholders, and we wish her all the best.
Susan will be with us through the end of the year, and I'm confident our Investor Relations and public affairs teams are well equipped for the future. Moving forward into 2026, Andrew Peters, currently Senior Vice President, Strategy, will add Investor Relations to his responsibilities reporting to Chris Senner.
This is a natural move for Andrew, who joined Exelixis in 2018 following 12 years as a biopharma equity research analyst. To both Susan and Andrew. So we'll close here, and we look forward to updating you on our progress in the future, and thank you for your continued support and interest in Exelixis. And we're happy to now open the call for questions.
[Operator Instructions]
And our first question will come from the line of Silvan Tuerkcan with Citizens.
2. Question Answer
Congratulations on all the progress. Maybe if you could just summarize the post-ESMO feedback that you had on the zanzalintinib results and how they match up with those points that you unveiled today regarding how you plan to position this product in the market.
Yes. Thanks, Silvan. Yes, P.J., do you want to start with that one and then maybe Dana and I can provide some color commentary as needed.
Sure. Thanks for the question, Silvan. We've conducted extensive market research with the data that was presented at ESMO, which has really been very positive. Physicians are seeing the overall survival benefit as very important. They're certainly seeing the fact that we're bringing an IO to bear in one of the biggest tumors, one of the big four tumors, as I said, where IO hasn't been available where TKI plus IO has filled in the past is also very important to physicians as well as the fact that this is a chemo-free option.
So what we've seen, as I think about this market, and as we see the market now, it's a very fragmented market. As you look at it, about 1/3 of the market is Lonsurf-bev, 1/3 of the third line plus market is TKI and the final 1/3 of that market is really sort of a smattering of different chemos as well as various targeted therapies.
So fragmented market really is one that provides opportunity should we be approved in the setting. And our market research clearly indicates it will take market share from all the competitors in the space. So that's been certainly very positive as well. And as I mentioned, we're excited to build out our GI franchise capabilities, our sales team as we're -- the NET launch is going well. This gives us the opportunity to reach further in the community and continue to drive uptake in NET as well as to be really fully prepared and optimized should we have the opportunity to launch zanza in the near future. So just very exciting all around.
One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Sean Laaman with Morgan Stanley.
This is Catherine on for Sean. We had one looking at zanza and nccRCC ahead of the readout for STELLAR-304 in midyear '26, could you help provide more color on why sunitinib is the right control given the various histologic subtypes that make up this population?
Thanks for the question. This is Dana. Yes, so the comparator in 304 is sunitinib, which is a standard of care in this setting. We think it's a highly relevant comparator, especially given the overlap in target profile with zanza. And it's used quite extensively, especially ex U.S., but a number of patients in the U.S. are also treated with this. So it's a standard of care and thus is a good comparator to go with a Phase III pivotal trial.
One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Paul Choi with Goldman Sachs.
This is Karishma on for Paul. Congrats on the quarter.
So given the performance in the STELLAR-303 initial cut of data from ESMO, help us level set expectations for the NLM cut coming out early next year? And particularly, we were interested in the idea of powering with relation to the study given that Lonsurf-bev had approximately 500 patients in their Phase III study. Can you speak to your decision to enroll roughly 900 patients in STELLAR-303 and the overall implications?
Yes, it's kind of hard to hear your question with all the background noise. So Dana, can you navigate that one.
Sure. So the study started out or the prior iteration before it was had dual primary end points. It had a single primary endpoint in patients with non-liver metastases. We -- scientific rationale to look at that, especially with emerging data coming from the LEAP-017 trial and other studies showing that those patients without liver metastases seem to do better with IO.
But as the trial evolves, and as we were accruing patients and events, we realized that we had an important opportunity to potentially bring the results in earlier with the ITT population, meaning with the strong contribution of events from the patients with liver metastases, it's a much poor prognosis with those patients.
They -- the disease is much more aggressive. They progress faster. They achieve events for overall survival faster. So that's where we realized we really needed to change the trial so that we could get endpoints in both the non-liver mets and the full ITT population. So the result that we presented in Berlin a couple of weeks ago includes both -- it's a combined analysis of both liver mets and non-liver met the entire ITT population. That population is a little bit skewed toward non-liver mets patients in that we put a cap amount of patients with liver metastases that could enroll in the trial.
So typically, a trial population that doesn't manage liver mets, the way we did, we'll be about 80% liver mets and 20% -- 20% to 30% non-liver mets, we had about 38% non-liver mets. So that's certainly changed the dynamics of the trial, but the results that we achieved was in the entire population. So as we said, because the non-liver mets progressed a little more slowly, we expect to see results in that subgroup sometime next year around the middle of next year.
One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Asthika Goonewardene with Truist.
I want to offer my congratulations on both the top and bottom line growth here, which are really impressive. So I have a question on this. Merck announced LITESPARK-011 was positive and one could assume that they'll be putting effort into marketing belzu plus lenvatinib combination in second-line RCC patients.
We all know that zanza is a better drug than lenvatinib, but there could be a lot of population overlap between LITESPARK-011 and the belzu/zanza cohort in [indiscernible]. So does that reduce the probability that Merck will want to pursue a pivotal second-line study with belzu and zanza? And then if I can sneak one in an extra in here. What was the clinical trial contribution for cabo sales in 3Q?
Chris, take that second question, first.
Sure. So Asthika, it's Chris. There were actually -- there were no clinical trial sales in the quarter. .
And yes, it's Mike. The first question was a long drawn-out question, lots of twists and turns. We are confident that the Merck trials that we've been discussing for the last year will continue and start later this year. So I don't want to say more than that to speculate-- I don't want to speculate on other people's data, especially when there's only a press release. We're excited about that collaboration, and we'll see that moving forward.
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Akash Tewari with Jefferies.
This is Anastasia on for Akash. So do you see any risk to your STELLAR-303 trial approval given that Vinay was publicly apprehensive about the usefulness of CABINET?
I'm sorry, do you mind repeating the question? I don't think we got all that. .
Yes, for sure. So do you see any risk to your STELLAR-303 trial, specifically its approval, given that Vinay has been publicly apprehensive about the usefulness of CABINET?
Yes. I wouldn't want to comment on that.
One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Andy Hsieh with William Blair.
Well, first and foremost, congrats on the illustrious Korea and the biopharma industry, you've been a mentor to so many of us and really happy for you and I'll miss working with you dearly. So my question has to do with the NET population. Obviously, a very, very successful launch. And I'm just curious, as you look forward to the zanza Phase III trial, I'm curious about the strategy in terms of navigating the potential cannibalization as cabo is being used [indiscernible] potentially entrenching in the earlier lines by setting?
P.J, go ahead.
Yes. Thanks for the question, Andy. In terms of NET, as you mentioned, we're having -- really pleased with the launch, how it's going. I mentioned kind of 50% demand growth quarter-over-quarter, we're pleased with and certainly the broad utilization across all the relevant demographics in the population.
And kind of very early innings here as we're still building new patient share and obviously, only approved at the very end of March, a lot of opportunity for these patients to get refilled and continue the business with regards to demand going forward. As we think about zanza in the long term, it's just a very different study in terms of having an active comparator, and it's really designed to position that very competitively and upfront in the market, but that's far down the road. I think in the near term, there's just so much room for cabo and NETs to really become a key player there.
One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Sudan Loganathan with Stephens.
Apologies if this was already asked in a different capacity. But I believe I heard that the other subgroup part of the dual primary endpoint for STELLAR-303 might only come to maturity, maybe sometime early next year.
Yes with the NDA submission that you guys are planning for by year-end 2025, could we still expect like a broad label for CRC, including both subgroups to be in play? Or will there be some sort of rolling submission that needs to happen to include that cohort of the primary endpoint?
And then just secondly, a follow-up, was the need for both subgroups being split up as a result of guidance from regulators to achieve having both of those non-liver mets and liver mets included on the initial label for zanza?
Sure. Thanks for the question. This is Dana. So we can file and we will file based on the single hit on one of the dual primary endpoints in the ITT population. And I just want to clarify, the ITT population is not a subpopulation. It is the entire population of the trial. So that would give us, in our view, the broadest label.
The NLM subgroup is a subpopulation within the trial. It's just a -- it's a second dual endpoint -- primary endpoint in the trial. So we're proceeding with our filing. And as we said, we will be -- we expect to get that in very soon,depending the government reopening for business.
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Yaron Werber with TD Cowen.
Congrats on the quarter. This is Sarah on for Yaron. Quick question from us on your early-stage pipeline. I know you mentioned you have an R&D Day coming up, but if you could just give us a quick sneak peek of -- you now have 4 Phase I programs. Can you maybe prioritize among them, which one you expect to transition next into pivotal development? And maybe if you could speak a little bit on XB371 in particular, which is your tissue factor TOPO1-ADC. Maybe just discuss a little bit how it's differentiated from other TOPO1s.
Sure. Thanks for the question. I don't want to preempt too much around what we're going to say next month. What I can tell you is that 309 and 010 -- 309 is our USP1 inhibitor, 010 is our 5T4 targeting ADC. Those have been in the clinic longer. So those have accrued more patients, obviously.
XB628, our bispecific IO molecule targeting PD-L1 and NKG2A started its Phase I trial a few months ago. So that's enrolled -- that's been enrolling well. And then 371, which is, as you mentioned, the tissue factor targeting ADC with the topoisomerase 1 inhibitor payload. That is our most recent IND filing.
That Phase I trial is got up and running very recently, but it's already enrolling patients. And what's exciting about that molecule, since you asked specifically about what differentiates it, it utilizes a differentiated antibody that has no impact on the coagulation cascade and also has the tandem mechanism release linker that we licensed from Catalent to release the payload. So it's sort of a belt and suspenders approach for stabilizing the payload in circulation.
So it requires both glucaronidase cleavage and then a tandem cleavage by a peptidase inside the cells for payload release. So we think that's what differentiates it, plus we also feel that we are kind of ahead of any others in terms of investigating a molecule like this in the clinic.
One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Michael Schmidt with Guggenheim.
I had one on zanza, specifically the opportunity based on the STELLAR-304 study. Just help us understand the size of this commercial opportunity in non-clear cell RCC. And how much CAP use is driven in non-clear cell right now? And then lastly, just the minor delay to mid-2026 from the first half. Is that based on event rate slowdown? Or is there something else going on there?
Yes. Michael, this is P.J. Certainly excited about the opportunity to get a readout from STELLAR-304 and then the potential to get zanza approved in the kidney cancer space. Obviously, a space we know really well. Non-clear cell accounts for approximately 20% to 25% of the patients in the space. And cabo has utilization there as do many other agents. But certainly, we think that a Phase III study having a positive result would really move the needle in that space to demonstrate with greater level of evidence and support benefit for patients.
One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Jason Gerberry with Bank of America.
Susan, you'll be missed. My question is on the NET cabo launch. Just wondering a pretty impressive share of -- I guess, second-line oral therapies. I was just curious, are orals getting a greater share relative to Lutathéra? Or is the dynamic between orals and Luta in second line relatively stable. And if I could just squeeze one in, the MSN patent appeal, is there a timeline on that?
Yes. With regards, this is P.J. Thanks for the question, Jason. As you mentioned, we're very pleased with the NET launch. And as we look at the second line plus oral share, we've already exceeded 40% new patient share there, which we're pleased with. As I mentioned, those are patients just coming on therapy.
So we think certainly have room to benefit from the duration of therapy that those patients would achieve. And we think we can continue to -- we believe we can continue to grow share in the space. With regards to Lutathéra in the second-line plus setting broadly, orals constitute a greater portion of that market. But where Lutathéra is utilized, cabo really is the preferred treatment post Lutathéra as ours is really the only study that had patients in it who were pretreated with Lutathéra, which is why that sort of broad study base in a contemporary setting is really benefiting us in the marketplace.
Yes, Jason, it's Mike. On the topic, don't have anything to offer up on that today, okay?
One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Leonid Timashev with RBC.
I wanted to ask a little bit on the mengioma opportunity. Just curious sort of how you're thinking about the emerging investigator-sponsored data with cabo and how that applies to zanza and your confidence there? And then ultimately, what you think the size of that opportunity may be?
Sure. This is Dana. Thanks for the question. Regarding what was seen with cabo, so you probably know the story, but there's a published case report where a patient with thyroid cancer treated with cabo had an angioma, and they noticed a very substantial reduction in the size of that tumor, and that's not a common occurrence with targeted therapies.
A number of different studies noted response rates for targeted therapies, especially VEGF or VEGFR targeted therapies in the single-digit range, 3% or less. So these investigators got very excited and launched an investigator-sponsored trial where they looked at a number of patients treated with cabo, and they saw response rates depending on the criteria that are used anywhere in the 25% to 75% range.
So that was quite exciting to us and showed the impact of the target profile of cabo. And as we've said, we feel that zanza is sort of a best-in-class molecule with a cabo-like target profile. So it's a natural progression for us to look at for a white space targeting trial with zanza. So we're very excited about that trial. And as I indicated, we expect that trial to get up and running in 2026.
One moment for your next question, and that will come from the line of Stephen Willey with Stifel.
Maybe a similar question just on the planned Phase III trial in post-chemoadjuvant CRC. And so I guess when I look at the STELLAR-303, the zanza dose intensity, I guess it was pretty low. And just curious if you're intending to do any additional dose exploration work just to make sure that dose intensity doesn't become a rate limiting factor in a setting where tolerability tends to be prioritized.
Yes. So this is Dana. I'll take that. Yes, so in the -- our plans for further exploration in colorectal, we're really -- this really comes from the result from STELLAR-303. It's the first demonstration of a positive result in non-MSI-high patients with an IO-containing regimen. So it's natural for us to want to bring that earlier in lines of therapy for patients.
And this is some white space in colorectal cancer that we identified as high unmet need. So in patients with high risk of recurrence, the median disease-free survival is in the 6-month range. So we think we can get an answer from this study quite quickly.
Now in terms of dose, it's natural and as we've seen with other agents, for example, with cabo that as you move up earlier lines of therapy, you often will look at other doses. So we certainly are intending to look at other doses with zanza. And just -- I would just say stay tuned for more information around that when we finally kind of launch the trial and divulge more details.
One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Jay Olson with Opp Co.
This is Cheng on the line for Jay. Congrats on the quarter. Also want to thank Susan for all the help in the past years and congrats on the retirement. Just like wondering about -- as we are seeing like several bispecific programs are now actually being developed in the first-line CRC. So how are you thinking about the potential impact of those like novel agents? And how will that impact the later line uptake of the atezo plus zanza ?
And if I could sneak in one clarification question, for the STELLAR-303, file based on ITT population, just wondering why couldn't you file earlier because the top line results were like a few months ago?
Yes. We're having a hard time understating you. We're filing -- again, nobody is filing new NDAs right now with the government being closed. So to be aware of that and whether it be a new NDA or a new BLA, there's no filings currently with the government shutdown. So just keep that in mind, and we're hoping to file ASAP when the government reopens.
In terms of the bispecifics and that emerging landscape, certainly interesting science, early clinical data, kind of hard to opine on how that's going to change the marketplace without pivotal trials even being started, much less reading out. So I think we should just stay tuned on that and understand that it's a moving landscape across the board. And obviously, data drives the process, and we'll keep our data certainly moving as well, and we'll always be able to layer in our data with whatever emerging data is available.
One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Ash Verma with UBS.
So I just wanted to come back on the CRC market dynamic that you mentioned that [indiscernible] plus Teva is roughly 1/3 of this third-line market right now. But just the physician feedback that we've been getting is that, that is a growing part. So by the time that you get to the market with zanza- atezo, like what is your assumption that what -- how much would that share be? And then yes, there is some sort of difference in the SUNLIGHT study based on the prior beva exposure, but has that been slowing down the adoption of that regimen?
Yes. Thanks for the question. I'll say we've been conducting market research in CRC for quite some time. And I will say that what we've seen is that the share of the SUNLIGHT regimen has actually been relatively stable. So if that continues moving forward, the market certainly remains fragmented, as I said, about 1/3 SUNLIGHT, 1/3 TKI, 1/3 other, which really represents a great opportunity for us, particularly in that our research with numerous physicians, and we're talking -- when we do research, we're talking to over 100 physicians in the community as well as academia to get a really good sample size.
And we're seeing -- we're hearing from them that we'll get uptake in this third line plus setting and take share from all competitors. So we're optimistic about that. This is why we're increasing -- one of the reasons in addition to driving more NET with cabo, why we're increasing our sales force because CRC is treated heavily in the community. This is a very common tumor type. So lots of prescribers here. So we're going to get ahead of that and really be able to have a strong reach into the community setting.
One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Christopher Liu with Lucid Capital Markets.
Maybe one that is more around capital allocation and financial strategy. With the share buybacks that have already been done and that are planned, going forward, how are you thinking about incremental buybacks versus things like business development or clinical investment opportunities? And do you feel like there's going to be a point where share buybacks would be less favored for some of these other potential value generators?
Yes, this is Chris. So generally, we think of capital allocation in the three elements, right? It's R&D, it's business development and share repurchases. And we think with the revenue growth we're generating and with the continued prudent expense management, we're including R&D expense in the $1 billion range, we think that we'll be able to fund all three of those elements, and we'll continue to invest in R&D and invest in BD and invest in share repurchase.
Thank you, at this time, there are no further questions. And so I will turn the call over to today's host, Susan Hubbard. Ms. Hubbard?
Thank you, Sherry, and thank you all for joining us today. We certainly welcome your follow-up calls with any additional questions you may have.
This concludes today's program. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Exelixis, Inc. — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Totalumsatz: $598 Mio (Q3 2025).
- CABOMETYX U.S.: $543 Mio Nettoproduktumsatz (+≈14% YoY vs. $478 Mio).
- Globales Cabo: $739 Mio (Exelixis + Partner) vs. $653 Mio Q3 2024.
- GAAP-Ergebnis: Nettogewinn $193.6 Mio; EPS $0.72 (basic), $0.69 (verwässert).
- Cash: $1.6 Mrd Barmittel und marktfähige Wertpapiere.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Zanza‑Fokus: Zanzalintinib (»zanza«) wird als kommender Franchise‑Treiber positioniert nach positivem STELLAR‑303 (OS‑Vorteil im ITT‑Populationsschnitt); sieben pivotaler Trials geplant.
- Regulatorische Schritte: Ziel einer NDA‑Einreichung in CRC im Dezember 2025 (abhängig von Wiedereröffnung der US‑Behörden); NLM‑Finalanalyse erwartet Mitte 2026.
- Kommerz & Kapital: Ausbau des GI‑Vertriebs ab Q4‑2025 zur Vorbereitung des CRC‑Launches; Board genehmigte zusätzliche $750 Mio Rückkauf; Kapital für R&D und Rückkäufe vorhanden.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Guidance: Totalumsatz $2,30–2,35 Mrd; Nettoprodukterlöse $2,10–2,15 Mrd; COGS ≈4% der NP; R&D $850–900 Mio; SG&A $500–525 Mio; Effektivsteuersatz 17–18%.
- Timing: NDA‑Plan Dezember 2025 (bei Regierungsöffnung); NLM‑Endanalyse und STELLAR‑304 Top‑Line voraussichtlich Mitte 2026 — diese Termine bestimmen Zulassungs‑ und Launch‑risiken.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Zanza‑Positionierung: Marktfeedback nach ESMO positiv; Management erwartet Uptake in fragmentiertem 3L+ CRC‑Markt und Marktanteilsgewinn gegenüber Lonsurf‑bev und TKIs.
- STELLAR‑303 / Filing: Diskussionen zur dualen Endpunkt‑Strategie (ITT vs. Non‑Liver‑Met); Firma reicht auf Basis des ITT‑Treffers ein und ergänzt NLM‑Daten, sobald Reife erreicht (Mitte 2026).
- NET‑Launch & Vertrieb: Starkes NET‑Momentum (>40% New‑Patient‑Share oral); Fragen zur Vertriebsaufstockung und möglicher Konkurrenz‑/Kannibalisierungsdynamik bei späteren Zanza‑Einsätzen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Kernergebnis: Stabile Cash‑generative CABOMETYX‑Geschäfte finanzieren aggressive Zanza‑Entwicklung und Rückkäufe. STELLAR‑303 (Lancet/ESMO) liefert klares Differenzierungsargument und kurzfristigen Upside durch eine geplante NDA; entscheidende Risiken sind regulatorische Timing‑Unwägbarkeiten (US‑Behördenstatus) und die Mitte‑2026‑Readouts.
Exelixis, Inc. — Bernstein 2nd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Fantastic. Hi, everyone. Thank you so much for being here today. For those of you that don't know me, my name is Courtney Breen, I cover large-cap biopharma here at Bernstein. I have spent a little while covering a lot of different companies, but my experience before being here was at Merck and spending a lot of time thinking about oncology. So I'm looking forward to this conversation today and getting to chat about kind of the work that's happening at Exelixis.
I am privileged to share the stage today with Michael Morrissey, the CEO of Exelixis, and I will ask you to spend a couple of minutes perhaps giving a little bit of your background, kind of any high notes on the story that you would like to contextualize and then we'll dive into Q&A. A reminder for everyone in the room, please feel free to send through questions on the pigeon hole app, and I can integrate those into the conversation as well.
All right.
Over to you, Mike.
Well, Fantastic. Well, nice to meet you. We certainly aspire to be in your coverage universe. So good overlap there. But again, yes, I'm Mike Morrissey. I'm Chief Executive at Exelixis. Before I begin, I'll just remind you that I'll be making forward-looking statements today. So please see our SEC filings for a description of the risks that we face in our business.
So Exelixis, commercial stage biotech company focused on oncology. I would say we're probably mid-adolescence in terms of our growth and development. Very fortunate to have a lot of really strong data and kind of time evolving the organization to the point where today, we're at a stage of having a strong franchise in RCC, kidney cancer, led by our flagship molecule called cabozantinib.
Cabo is a molecule that we have discovered and developed in-house. It's in some ways, an interesting story about the journey biotechs can take over the years in terms of having early data, which may not pan out, early collaborations, which may not always reach fruition in terms of their success, having a company that has great people, great data opportunity to help a lot of patients and then commercialize their discoveries in a way that can bring value to shareholders, too. So that's really the cabo's story.
First couple of indications didn't work well. It didn't fail in pivotal trials. We kind of shrunk the company kept hung in there with the belief and the data that it would be a big drug elsewhere in between 2015 and 2025. We have now a label with 7 different indications. The leading tyrosine kinase inhibitor in kidney cancer, new indication in neuroendocrine tumors that we think can really help revolutionize that tumor type and having the ability to monetize that, grow the top line, certainly been profitable for the last 7 or 8 years, investing a lot in R&D.
Now with the pipeline of molecules across modalities, across combination partners, across indications that we think we really move forward pretty aggressively. So our goal quite simply is to take the learnings from cabo where we built a franchise from scratch and apply that to a pipeline that allows us to build really a pipeline of franchises. That's how you build real value for patients, for the system, the health care system and certainly for shareholders and that's our goal.
So look forward to talking about all those different aspects today.
Fantastic. And I think kind of the way that you set that up kind of leads perfectly to where I wanted to take my first question, which is big picture on the company because you kind of highlighted some of the elements of the portfolio. You've got kind of cabo in market. It's got patent expiry in 2031. You've got zanza in Phase III kind of advancing and perhaps being that next innovation kind of coming pretty closely behind cabo.
And then a series of Phase I assets. And these span of different modalities, different mechanisms of action, some in-house, some that you've acquired. What does the shape of the portfolio look like at the end of the decade? And how will you manage through that 2031 patent cliff? And I obviously spend a lot of time thinking about patent cliff in the companies that I cover.
Yes, as do we, right? So -- and I think that's the intermediate focus in terms of our aspirational goal to be -- to have this pipeline of franchise molecules, right? So yes, I think the whole cabo, zanza opportunity that transition is really designed and has been designed and we've been executing on to convert a patent cliff into, if anything, minor [pothole] in terms of how we think we can build revenues outside of cabo indications within cabo indications.
Our main focus, and if you distill everything we do down to one phrase, down to one sentence, our goal is to improve standard of care for patients with cancer. Because as you know from your past life and what you do now, the only way you're going to get traction with prescribers. And then with payers and ultimately in the marketplace from a commercial point of view is to raise the bar for what patients can expect. Me-toos also ran, you may win with a P-value, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're going to win hearts and minds and ultimately, people writing scripts for you.
So it's really around that. So how we navigate cabo to zanza is super important. And I think we've been able to kind of stage that and frame that really well in terms of we don't want to build zanza, cannibalize cabo in the process. So how do we maneuver things temporarily around the 2030 area. Certainly, overlapping indications, we want to see them hit kind of their terminal commercial velocity, if you will, post the LOE, but then building in things like CRC, other tumors where we think we can have a definite impact in 2025, 2026, et cetera.
So a lot of moving pieces. Our pipeline is similar to what you would see with I think most big pharmas. We have diversity of targets, diversity of modalities, diversity of combination approaches. It all comes down to execution and really investing and looking at investments in terms of the ROI that we're looking forward on relative to, again, changing standard of care and then being able to monetize those assets.
So we don't need to over invest early. We need to let the winners present themselves to us and basically say, with this data, moving into full development. With this data, it makes sense from an ROI point of view, from a science point of view, from an upside point of view commercially to be able to invest there. So we have a different approach. Most biotechs certainly today, they're looking for their next financing. We don't play that game. We've been out of that game for years, right? It's really around how do we -- in a very disciplined fashion prioritize how we invest because our commitment to keeping R&D at about $1 billion a year is real, and we've been really sticking to that.
So we can have other -- we have lots of free cash then to utilize in other important ways. But it's that mix and match of how we do our investments and how we focus in terms of execution that we're always building value.
Absolutely. And I think you touched on a couple of things that I'd like to dive into. One is kind of the zanza as your second kind of asset here kind of going after the same opportunity space as cabo compared to going after kind of new indications that you are not currently playing in and sequencing that at the right time. How are you thinking about those priorities when it comes to price that you can garner for different indications, kind of when revenue will be generated, when perhaps the standard of care becomes cheaper and so therefore, your comparator is kind of coming off a lower base? Like how are you trading off all of those access as well as scientific challenges?
Yes. So for us, it's always about improving options for patients. Everything else is a second. And I think that has certainly been proven time and time again. You can exact the premium from a pricing point of view if you change the equation for patients. You can actually offer them something that will take a relatively acute opportunity therapeutically and make it into a chronic disease. And that's what we and others in collaboration with the competition have done in that space.
You've taken a $3 billion, $4 billion market in the teens to what will be probably a $10-plus billion market moving into the 30s because you've -- the epi really hasn't changed, but you've actually pie bigger because patients are living longer, patients are on drug longer. You've changed the needle. You've changed the trajectory of their disease. And that's what we aim to do across the board, certainly in renal cancer, kidney cancer, in colon cancer. I mean everything we work on.
And it's a pretty narrow focus is to do that. And that's what we bring to patients. And I think the system is set up to really support that as old drugs, which we beat go off patent and are then less -- a, they're certainly cheaper, but they're less likely to be used because there's other agents that are better.
So that's the game. It's a simple game. It's just really hard, right? But it's mixing the science and the clinical work in the business. But look, we're in the p-value business. We have to -- we have pivotal trials have to work, and they won't always work and they won't always work as well as they do. But obviously, when they work well as they have for us, we can do a good job with them monetizing in terms of the commercial setting.
Fantastic. You also mentioned about kind of the cap on R&D spend and kind of the way that you think about financing your business, financing your innovation and continuing to advance the portfolio. Can you talk a little bit about how both your balance sheet and your margin profile today set you up to kind of navigate this cost and kind of give you the opportunity to make the bets that you need to? Do you have to look outside in terms partnerships, collaboration, anything along those lines?
So we look at capital allocation, and we're in a fortunate spot to be able to even be talking about capital allocation at this stage of our existence as a very important part of the business. We're investing and we have certainly made investments over the years in terms of both internal innovation as well as external innovation.
We're not as GungHo about doing high-risk modest reward M&A. And I think we -- our work and our team has done a very, very deep dive into that. The fastest way to incinerate a lot of cash is to do bad M&A, right? And that's been proven time and time again. We're really focused on doing the right level of BD that allows us to back-end load investments and pay for success.
And certainly, our -- say, our ADC platform, our bispecific platform has really been built on the back of external technologies that we like, that we've used very, very effectively in collaboration with a variety of biotech in a way to move the needle on the pipeline as well as then on the clinical side. If you look at the cabo development, we had clinical collaborations with every major player in the oncology space, and we're doing that with zanza now as well in a way to combine and conquer, right?
And I mean, 9ER, the CheckMate 9ER trial was cabo/nivo versus sunitinib in the front line setting. I mean that's got to be in the ROI hall of fame, right? We paid $0.25 on the dollar for that trial. And it basically -- the success there and the ensuing commercial kind of focus and investment raised revenues by 2, 2.5 fold. So it's a really, really important way to understand how you can maneuver in a way that kind of keeps the P&L and the balance sheet and focus that allows us to maneuver.
So everybody has a spending cap. Everybody, whether you're the biggest pharma in the world or your smallest biotech, you have what you can spend and you have to use that wisely, and that takes a degree of discipline and prioritization, which I think we do well.
Absolutely. And one of the other things that you touched on in your conversation upfront was around kind of going after patients that really need kind of improved cancer outcomes and demonstrating that clear improvement as being such a critical part. And cabo has just kind of launched into the neuroendocrine tumors, which is kind of a challenging space for many, many patients when you get NET tumors showing up, really high area of unmet need.
It sounds like kind of the launch is kind of moving towards your expectations, but perhaps there's been a bit of confusion on the sell side as to what this launch might look like. Can you talk us through some of the parameters here, kind of perhaps how much of this market is new patients coming in versus ongoing treatment and how you might see this NET market overall...
Yes. So let's talk about NET and the opportunity there. Again, it's a relatively I would say under -- not underserved, but underfocused indication. Cabo was the first new drug approved in that space in 2015, 2016. It has a lot of standard of care is a lot of older drugs, sunitinib, everolimus, CAPTEM, all the parenteral SSAs and then Lutathera, which came online actually years ago, it continues to work well.
So there's a variety of offerings. These patients, again, they have relatively indolent tumors and they can live for a long time. They have a lot of choices in terms of how they operate because they're not under as much pressure as you would normally see in more, I'd say, more advanced debilitating tumor types, which is -- it's a different mindset that you have to be able to play into from a marketing point of view.
So we've looked at the oral therapy focus market, if you will, because that's certainly where cabo plays. The CABINET data was, I think, just outstanding in terms of being able to look at a wide variety of patients in their journey who needed an oral therapy, largely because it took long to enroll because it was a U.S.-only center study done by the Alliance Cooperative Group. So it took -- probably took 6-7 years to enroll.
So standard of care was evolving there. We covered all the bases. So the data we have is very, I think, very interesting, very encouraging in terms of its efficacy as well as the opportunities to build upon that going forward commercially, right? So yes, so we got approved at the end of Q1. I think the -- as you would often expect, we have covering analysts. A few of them maybe got over their skis a little bit in terms of what was expected in the first quarter of launch, where you would normally see new patient starts only because you have much time for refill. So I would say, in general, there was, I think, good consensus on expectations. There were a few that got ahead of themselves, but that's fine.
But yes, launch is going great, very strong feedback. I think the rate-limiting step here is simply patients coming off their existing therapy, looking for new opportunities of which cabo would be one, if not one of the more preferred ones. So we're excited about where we're going and tracking it very closely and looking forward to continuing to see the ramp there.
Now if you look at the situation with renal, where we've grown market share literally every quarter over -- since 9ER read out and was approved in early 2021, we would expect the same kind of ramp here, right, because of just a population is indolent by nature and slowly evolving. But we have big aspirations there, both with cabo and then with zanza, where we're going head-to-head against everolimus in a broad setting. And we have some other assets that we're excited about. So there's lots to do there. But that's an area of focus where we want to build a franchise and that we want to be able to really focus there going forward.
Yes. And I think kind of you also touched on as we were talking about cabo before, you -- in the early development phase, you kind of partnered with many companies. You've also competed with many companies in terms of delivering those market share gains that you just kind of alluded to. Kind of -- can you talk about the shape of your kind of sales and marketing organization, kind of how have you been able to compete with kind of -- whoever you partnered with Bristol in some of the indications? You're competing with Merck, you're competing with Pfizer, you're competing with some of these other players in the RCC space?
Well, it's an interesting, again, case study. I think the whole opportunity is, can you expect a small little company like us, especially in 2016, where we spent the last 3 or 4 years before them kind of looking over the edge of this -- of just implosion. So the -- as we've talked about previously, great data, great team, great energy can really make very, very rapid kind of inroads into competing in areas that arguably, if not, we're owned by big pharma, certainly dominated by big pharma.
But I think we've been able to do that really effectively, by having the right data and the right cadence of data and supported by the team that is built to compete. I mean every single day, we compete with -- in that setting. And again, you can't go in there with kind of half big ideas and half resource teams, cutting corners from a marketing point of view, cutting corners from a sales point of view.
You've got to go all in all the time every day. And it's the -- it's the small, nimble, highly intense team that can make a difference and make the extra call, have the extra data, have those kinds of things. So we're -- I think that's just who we are. We're a bigger company now than we were 10 years ago, but we still have the small company mentality. We think we're a big small company. And that nimbleness that intensity covers every gamut of the business, whether it's in R&D, whether it's in the FP&A team, whether it's in sales, all those things have to come together for us to be effective.
And we do that very, very aggressively, right? We use analytics and we understand the marketplace literally on a day-by-day basis to be able to kind of refocus the team to be able to maximize the chance of success. So we have to operate that way. We can't be complacent. We can't be content with success -- today's success because we can build on that for tomorrow.
Absolutely. And you just noted that you kind of leaned on analytics a lot on kind of continuing to pivot, continuing to evolve how you target, how you approach your kind of delivery of those market share gains. Have you seen much change kind of off the back of COVID in terms of your ability to engage with physicians, your ability to kind of support that kind of conversation, that ongoing conversation?
Well, certainly, right after COVID, that was challenging. No question, challenging for everybody. I think we're more or less back to normal now, right? So I think from the standpoint of our ability to -- we don't really sell, we educate. We don't -- there's no tricks to this. It's really here's the data, here's what we have to offer. So it's that enlightenment that I think HCPs and prescribers can -- and then we support. We've always had a very real focus on a white-glove service approach, make it easy for patients to help them navigate their disease, right?
And we can -- whatever we can do to help that process will help them, will help the practices and will ultimately benefit us. So it's a real kind of organic approach to being able to build the business and build momentum.
Absolutely. And I'm sure you have a lot less bureaucracy in your organization than...
We certainly do.
I did want to spend a little bit of time on zanza, your next asset. We've just seen a late-breaking abstracts get announced for STELLAR-303, colorectal cancer. That will be at ESMO next month. Tell us what we should expect here, kind of why colorectal cancer? Why is this an exciting opportunity? And what's different about the way that you're approaching the development with zanza now with some of the learnings...
Well, everything we've done with zanza is based on the foundation from cabo, right? So the -- for a variety of reasons with cabo, we explored a very, I would say, kind of focused area of the white space where we could actually have taken cabo. Zanza is built to be a kind of gentler molecule, maybe more easily used by HCPs. Same target inhibition profile, same pharmacodynamics. Again, cabo being a multi-targeted TKI, you never really know exactly what part of its inhibition profile is driving what.
But we hit all the important cell types in the tumor microenvironment, some on purpose, some by accidents, and that's great. And to be able to phenocopy that with zanza with a shorter half-life, which did make it easy use and dose adjust, which every patient will dose adjust in terms of how TKIs operate.
So yes, so we're excited about that and having that foundation of understanding and expertise and pivotal trial success with cabo then going off and trying to say, improve standard of care in overlapping indications like renal, like liver, maybe thyroid, but then finding new indications too. And CRC was really prime there, right? It's the large addressable population. Standard of care has evolved slowly. Options are minimal. Checkpoint utilization there is low because it's just not a very hot tumor outside of the MSI-high population, which is very, very sensitive to checkpoints.
So -- and to be quite frank, there have been 4 failed pivotal trials there with checkpoints just underscores the challenge of actually operating there. So zanza, atezo-303 against an active control, a big win. Again, we're in the p-value business. So to get that to work in the ITT population was fantastic. The non-liver met population, which has a better prognosis, we just barely missed. So hopefully, that was an interim look, and then I'll get over the goal line in the meeting months as we accrue more events because we weren't fully powered there yet.
So yes, so it's the first step in the ball game, right? Non-clear cell RCC is up next. That's fully enrolled, discounting events looking for that to read out. And then we have a whole swath of pivotal trials ongoing after that, too. So -- and we're constantly evaluating where we invest, what makes sense. We had a head and neck trial going in terms of the Phase II/III process that we've stopped to be able to move into, say, earlier line, CRC based upon the success of 303 as well as something like miningenoma, which is completely underserved in terms of therapeutic kind of approvals. And we think is a very, very important area for us to be in based upon some early cabo data.
So we're constantly reevaluating our investment asking the right questions as you would have done in your old job in terms of how that strategy goes forward and tactically what makes the most sense from an ROI point of view and patient benefit, for sure.
Absolutely. And you spoke about kind of the science in many ways, leading the day in terms of which indications you go after next. I also wanted to ask kind of policy pressures, things like the Inflation Reduction Act and kind of a small molecule 9ER time horizon, causing you to run more studies in parallel and think about kind of the sequencing of zanza in a different way than you perhaps would have done otherwise?
Yes. So yes to know. I mean, think about the cabo development. I mean, we've -- I think the number of pivotal trials that we were part of either we ran ourselves, our partners ran or were run by cooperative groups in the '15, '16, '17 range. So we embrace the idea that key values make or break value. And you've got to run large global randomized pivotal trials to move the needle for patients, for the system and certainly for our shareholders.
So I don't think we have changed our approach with zanza per se. The IRA constraints, maybe they're here today, maybe they'll be gone tomorrow. I mean who knows, right? So I think the whole idea that people would stop working on small molecules when this came out a couple of years ago, it just hasn't. And you see that across the semester, you see it across the spectrum. So look, we're investing in the science. We're investing in what we has the best probability of success and the higher -- highest ROI category, so we can capitalize that, because it's a high attrition business.
You're not going to win every one of these examples, and you've got to be able to have enough high-quality inputs to be able to manage the upside on the -- when you've got those open the envelope and see the p-values and then move forward. But look, the oversight issues, MFN, [tariffs], FDA, the whole list of them are real. And there's certainly a level of uncertainty there. But what is certain is that if you don't invest and you don't have the opportunity to open the envelope and have a positive p-value, then you're not going to move forward. And so it's balancing that risk and balancing that uncertainty with the idea of making the right scientific kind of decisions that give you the best chance for success.
Yes. Fantastic. And I think everyone in the sector is grappling with all of those issues. So kind of on an ongoing basis, and we'll see how they play out.
For sure. Yes, yes, no doubt, no doubt.
Every day is a new day. In addition, just on zanza, it sounds like you have entered into a partnership with Merck regarding belzutifan and kind of the potential for combining those assets as well kind of in the past, we saw kind of the Bristol combination being kind of a critical anchor and CheckMate 9ER being kind of a very critical trial. How important is this partnership, this collaboration on the science side? What do you hope to achieve over the long term? Are there learnings from partnerships? You spoke about partnerships that worked and that failed in your first time around. What it could look like for you?
Yes. So this is an example of a clinical collaboration as was 9ER. We had the COSMIC collaboration framework with Roche. Those are clinical trial collaborations, where you -- if you will combine and conquer or try to conquer on the clinical side without sharing any commercial rights. So we like those kinds of collaborations.
I would call it more of a collaboration than a partnership. We have a partnership with Ipsen and Takeda with cabo ex U.S. Takeda has Japan. Ipsen has the rest of ex U.S. And that's obviously a -- those are partnerships that enable the broad commercialization, and we're doing very well there financially, right? So like getting a check from those guys every quarter, that's great. So it's really mixing and matching how we do that. But yes, we're thrilled to be working with Merck, obviously, the leader in large cap oncology and their record of success there speaks for itself. It's a very strong way to go. They'll be running those trials themselves. We'll be paying for half of one, which is great.
And certainly, the goal is to look forward. And I think the discussion leading up to that collaboration was can we align and what standard of care could look like in the 30s and then design the right trials and the right combinations to be able to go forward. So you're always looking for -- you're not really trying to beat what's happening today. You're looking forward 4, 5, 6 years and trying to kind of estimate where you think things will be and how you can fill gaps that might exist there that can drive value for patients and shareholders.
So we're doing that with them and having a lot of other discussions across the portfolio with others, especially with zanza around how we can do that. And it's -- again, it's a great way to be P&L friendly with what you're doing in R&D and, at the same time, maximize your chance of success by just having more shots on goal -- good shots on goal that could really move the needle.
The spend associated with some of those clinical trials and oncology can be astronomical.
Oh gosh, yes, no doubt, yes.
I did want to dive into some of your earlier assets. We spent a bunch of time talking about cabo and zanza, which are TKIs that kind of sisters or cousins or siblings of one another. As we think about kind of the earlier stage assets that you have in your portfolio, we see bispecifics, we see ADCs, we see new modalities coming through, some of which you've acquired kind of into your organization. Why were these the right assets for you to own? Why does it feel like this is the right thing for us to have inside our portfolio than perhaps something for us to combine with or kind of consider collaborating with in the future?
Yes. Well, a lot of those were internally derived. I think it's only one partnered assets. We have a lot of activities going on in, say, USP1 that made sense to -- we like that asset. We certainly had a lot of data on that. So at least preclinically. So it's -- yes, it's a constant, I would say, balancing act of where you invest from a discovery and early development point of view and how you mix and match those investments and to maximize the success, right?
So if you do that in a very disciplined sort of way, you can spread the risk across the modalities and across indications and combination just maximize your chance of finding the winner. And it's -- we use the needle in a haystack analogy a lot for BD and even for kind of our internal portfolio efforts, right? We're looking to burn haystacks and then find the needle as opposed to searching for needles as we go forward, right? And it's a very -- if you can discard the losers quickly and then focus on the winners, I think that's the best way to a, use your P&L and use your balance sheet in a way that can really be enabling.
But also, it's very focusing and that positive momentum can then really drive and accelerate everything you're doing inside the organization. So yes, so it's -- we're excited about our ADC program. We think we've got really good ideas and really good kind of next-gen molecules. Obviously, the data will speak for itself, right? Our small molecule programs are really best-in-class. We've invested a lot in our internal technology platform around structure-based design, cryo-EM. We're getting just amazing insights, both in terms of more combinatorial approaches, higher throughput approaches, but also then looking kind of at the atomic level of what's happening.
So I feel good about that. And end of the day, it's how fast can we move preclinically into clinically into then that next -- I mean the most important decision then is actually, okay, is this molecule worthwhile developing in terms of full development, pivotal trials, combination, et cetera. So that's the -- I mean it takes a while to get there. But once we're there, say with zanza, we know how to operate there. And we're not shy about making the big bets because that's the only way you're going to be able to monetize that.
Absolutely. And I think with some of these modalities as well, we're seeing a lot of crowding around targets. We're seeing a lot of kind of perhaps group sync in some of that...
which has been happening for decades...
Exactly. And especially when you get to a modality where there's some scientific risk on that modality, you want to reduce the modality risk by having a target that's well validated and so we'll go after the same target. So how are you thinking about...
Yes. We've played that game both ways and tried to stay on the edge, stay on the line between the 2. And that's where I think our scientific rigor and discipline comes into play because we don't have the luxury or the balance sheet to be able to spend a couple of billion dollars on a flyer. I mean that's not a pocket change for us. That's real money, right?
So we have to be extra maybe skeptical about some of the new stuff and ask the hard questions. And we've seen this with the bispecifics recently. PFS and lung is interesting. You don't have survival. It's kind of a [nonstarter]. We kind of saw that coming. And it could still play out differently, who knows. But it's how you navigate that early, middle and late and that makes a difference.
So the choices you make, it all come down to your risk profile and where you're going to put your bets, right? So I think we have a very -- a different lens, right? And cabo is a great example, right? We got it back twice. First pivotal trials failed. We had enough data to be able to believe that there was activity in indications. We just had to learn how to use the drug better, and we did that.
So I really like that dynamic, and it's always -- you never have all the data you need to mandate, things are going to work in perfection, but you've got to be able to navigate them. I think we have a good nose for how to do that going forward. And then we execute really well, too. So that...
Yes, absolutely. Absolutely. I do want to spend the last couple of minutes thinking about kind of the long term and kind of the big decisions you have to make. And so as we think about where you're sitting today, over the next 3 years, what do you think are the most important decisions that you have to make at Exelixis and how do you get comfort in making the right ones and we think about the uncertainty of science, the uncertainty of the policy environment and as well as kind of with that competition kind of reaching fever pitch in many places, kind of what gives you that you're going to be sitting in the right place at the right time?
Yes. So I mean it's a good question, right? I mean what gives me comfort is that the team we have has been successful, proven success in the face of as many roadblocks clinically, legally commercially as most companies see -- could see over a long span of time, right? So I've been thrilled with that you're mixing a little bit of COVID on top of that. It's been a time when everybody has been tested, right? And we have, I think, come out with a great deal of momentum and focus. And we haven't lost an intensity of what it means to be successful and how you earn success going forward.
So look, we all make decisions day, everybody faces the same generic decisions, where do you invest? What do you kill? What do you accelerate? What's happening on the global stage or the domestic stage that can mess things up. So you have to keep your widths as you go as well. I think we've done that pretty well over the years.
So it's the momentum that we've got. And I really think it's the mindset of what -- we've charted a course for success over the last 10 years that we think we can replicate and then on a much broader scale than with just one single molecule. That's the challenge. It's all about the pipeline. It's all about building a franchise, a portfolio of franchises because when you track companies that have scaled from $5 billion market cap to a $100 billion market cap, it all comes down to revenue multiples, right?
And the math is simple, right? And how you do that is by having the ability to put up numbers in terms of values and revenue that can give people the confidence that you can be bigger and better in the out years too. And we have that, right? So we've got a lot going in our favor. And the decisions, if you have the right data and you have the right people, the decisions are usually obvious. Those that aren't, then we just navigate carefully we have to course correct. We can do that, right? We have that.
Again, big small company mentality. Our governance is -- we do things in hours that most companies take -- big companies take months to do, right? Because we can do that, and we can course correct and move as we go forward. So that nimbleness is a really important part of our store of our culture too.
And to the point of kind of the journey that Exelixis might be on? What does -- what's the goal? What does success look like over the long term for Exelixis in your mind?
Well, we can quantify that in terms of market caps and patients treated and all those kinds of things. Obviously, bigger is better. But we have to do that in a way that, I think, reinforces our culture of big and small, right? Because I think it's the individual accountabilities and urgency, that intensity at an organization level is what drives success of any organization.
It's kind of the 80-20 rule, if you can shift that to 50-50 or 60-40, you can do amazing things. Small companies can compete with large companies head-to-head any time because of all those additional attributes that are just hard to find elsewhere, right?
So for me, success is all about moving the needle for patients. If we can improve standard of care, then we're confident based upon our past success with cabo. We can move the needle for patients. We can move the needle for prescribers. We can move the needle for the health care system. Obviously, then that will have an impact on our shareholders, too. So that's the goal.
Fantastic. Thank you very much, Michael. I enjoyed the conversation today.
Yes. Great one. Thank you so much.
Wonderful. Thank you all so much.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Bernstein 2nd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
Exelixis, Inc. — Bernstein 2nd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Strategie: Exelixis positioniert sich als kommerzielles Onkologie-Unternehmen, das das etablierte Cabozantinib-(Cabo)-Franchise nutzt, um mit Zanza und einer diversifizierten Pipeline Franchise‑Nachfolger aufzubauen und den Patentverlust (Loss of Exclusivity, LOE) 2031 abzufedern.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Portfolio-Fokus: Diszipliniertes Kapitalmanagement mit Ziel, Forschung & Entwicklung (R&D) bei rund $1 Mrd./Jahr zu halten; freie Mittel zur gezielten BD/Kooperation.
- Partnerschaften: Kooperative Studien (z.B. mit Merck) und ex‑US‑Partner (Ipsen, Takeda) als Hebel zur Risiko‑ und Kostenverteilung, klinische Kollaborationen statt breiter M&A‑Wetten.
- Kommerz: Cabo weiter Kernfranchise (RCC, neue NET‑Indikation); Launch in Neuroendokrinen Tumoren läuft, Ramp erwartet graduell wegen langsamer Patientenflüsse.
🔎 Neue Informationen
- Zanza‑Pipeline: STELLAR‑303 (Kolorektales Karzinom) als Late‑breaking Abstract—Ergebnis am Kongress erwartet; Management nennt positive erste Signale, teils knappe Subgruppenergebnisse.
- Finanz‑/Investitionsansatz: Betonung auf „pay‑for‑success“ BD‑Deals und selektive Back‑end Investments; keine neue Umsatz‑Guidance im Transkript.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- LOE‑Plan: Wie 2031 navigieren? Antwort: Sequenzierung von Zanza, neue Indikationen und laufende Studien sollen das Loch minimieren; Fokus auf Indikationen mit guter Monetarisierbarkeit.
- NET‑Launch: Nachfrage vs. Refill‑Effekt: Management sieht langsamen, aber nachhaltigen Ramp; einige Sell‑Side‑Erwartungen waren zu optimistisch.
- Regulatorik/Policy: Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) & Preisdruck genannt als Unsicherheiten, aber kein Strategiewechsel—weiterhin Investition in Pivotal‑Trials.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Exelixis bleibt ein execution‑orientiertes Biotech mit starker Cabo‑Basis und klarer Pipeline‑Ambition. Kurzfristig hängen Aktien‑katalysatoren an Zanza‑Daten (STELLAR‑303) und NET‑Launch‑Momentum; mittelfristig entscheidend sind erfolgreiche Pivotal‑Ergebnisse und die Fähigkeit, Umsatzverluste nach LOE 2031 durch neue Franchises zu ersetzen.
Exelixis, Inc. — H.C. Wainwright 27th Annual Global Investment Conference
1. Question Answer
Welcome to our first fireside chat of the morning. I'm Robert Burns, the Managing Director and Senior Biotech Analyst at H.C. Wainwright. And I'm joined today by Chris Senner, the CFO of Exelixis; as well as Andrew Peters, SVP of Strategy at Exelixis.
Gentlemen, thank you for joining us today.
Yes, Robert, thank you very much for having us.
Yes, thanks for the invite.
Awesome. So I guess let's start from a high-level perspective. Obviously, I would assume that a lot of people are familiar with Exelixis and its pipeline. But for those who aren't, can you provide a broad high-level overview of the company as well as what your lead assets are?
Sure. I'll start, and Andrew can fill in where things I've missed. But before we get started in the process of this discussion today, we'll be making forward-looking statements, and as such, involve risk. And so we refer you to our SEC filings for a full description of the risks associated with our business.
So Exelixis has been around for 25-plus years. We -- our primary product is CABOMETYX. We've launched CABOMETYX for second-line RCC back in the spring of 2016, and we've added 7, 8 different indications since primarily in RCC, but most recently in net or neuroendocrine tumors, which we launched in the second quarter of this year.
We have about 1,000 to 1,100 employees. We're based in Alameda, California, and we have a pipeline of products come along, including zanzalintinib, which is another TKI, which we're developing in many different indications. But generally, we're a commercial oncology company.
I don't know, Andrew, do you have any...
Yes. I mean, I think -- yes, thanks again for the invite. It's a good time to kind of tell the Exelixis story. As Chris highlighted, kind of cabo is our core product. Zanza is moving fast behind it, and then we have kind of the whole pipeline beyond that of earlier-stage molecules. And so kind of the focus in breadth is simply about treating more patients with cancer and building value that way.
Yes. So let's start with the commercial success of cabo. Obviously, there's going to be patent expirations coming relatively soon. So I wanted to get your -- to get a sense as to the financial guidance long term, what role does cabo play within the next 5 years? And then can you give us some insight into the launch of cabo in the GP NET situation?
Yes. So from a broad perspective, we put out aspirational guidance looking at cabo in 2030, which is around the time 2030, 2031 when we have loss of exclusivity around $3 billion, right? And so that's made up of primarily current -- the indications prior to NET, which is RCC and then NET, which we launched in the second quarter. We've launched really well. We had -- based on market research, we had about 35% market share for new patient starts. And we thought of it as about 4% of our revenue in the second quarter. And so that's about $20 million or so. So it's been successful. Our guidance for this year, the midpoint of the guidance from a product revenue perspective is around $2.1 billion. And so we've gone from in the last 8, 9 years from very small amount of sales to around $2.1 billion from the midpoint perspective.
Yes. And then kind of similarly on the aspirational guidance side, we also laid out what we think is the opportunity for zanza, kind of long term. And so we talked about by 2033, the clinical trials that we have running at the time represented about $5 billion in revenue. And so if you think kind of longer term, as kind of that cabo revenue is ramping up, rolls off in that 2030, 2031 time frame, that's right around the time that zanza is really kind of hitting what we think could be kind of escape velocity, so to speak, from a revenue perspective, if you look kind of across those indications. And so it's a story where we think the investments that we're making today in zanza is kind of a next-gen TKI set us up well to kind of -- normally, you see these patent cliffs. If anything, kind of we've been very deliberate and strategic about the indications we've selected, the market opportunities that we're pursuing to think of it more as a pothole, if anything, than anything different.
All right. So let's talk about the son of cabo, aka zanza. Obviously, you've got a very broad clinical development strategy here. Why don't you walk us through the clinical trials that you have ongoing and the ones you have planned as well that you're going to disclose later this year?
Yes. So before I kind of get into the breadth of the studies and really kind of why we think of zanza as a franchise molecule, I think it's helpful to kind of provide a little bit of context as to kind of what zanza is or how it was envisioned. As we look back at the development of cabo as kind of the next-gen TKI, VEGF-targeting TKI, really, the core insight there was to not only hit VEGF hard given the angiogenic drivers, a lot of different tumors, but also understand what are the potential resistance mechanisms that can often develop these patients, who are on anti-angiogenic drugs, such as kind of the first-gen TKIs. And so that was kind of the core concept behind cabo. And obviously, we've been successful, and it's now grown to be kind of the #1 TKI, both as a monotherapy and as well as in combination in RCC. But kind of the one liability or issue that kind of comes up with cabo is its relatively long half-life. So it's about a half-life of 4 days.
And so from a patient management perspective, that can present certain challenges because all patients who are on these kind of chronic anticancer drugs, develop adverse events and need down titration dose holds, et cetera. And so with that long half-life, it can add some challenges from a pure patient management perspective. And so zanza was conceived to really understand, can we maintain those core kind of kinase drivers, that core efficacy profile of cabo, but engineer it in a way to include some metabolic liabilities into that scaffold to shorten its half-life. And all the data we've presented so far has certainly suggested that we've been successful in that way. So zanza is really kind of a next-gen TKI that kind of takes the best kind of the efficacy drivers of cabo in a more kind of user-friendly format that the hypothesis is to does it allow for increased combinability? Is there the ability to potentially in earlier lines of therapy, say, maintenance kind of dose for longer periods and things like that.
So we have 5 pivotal studies up and running or soon to be running right now. And as we talked about on the second quarter call, a couple more that we're excited to begin as well as we, again, think of it as a franchise. So the first, obviously, is STELLAR-303. That's the combination of zanza and atezolizumab against rego in a third-line plus CRC setting. We top line that data earlier this year and are excited to share it as soon as we can kind of pending acceptances of abstracts and all of that.
The next is STELLAR-304, that's zanza/nivo against SUTENT in a non-clear cell RCC population. And that's one where we think we really have a chance to establish a standard of care. It's always surprising to me kind of reflecting on that indication where there's never been a real randomized pivotal study in that patient population and can kind of get into a little bit more there. But to us, it's really an opportunity to define a standard of care in that patient population and kind of help with that next leg of the zanza story. Behind that, we have a clinical collaboration with Merck, evaluating zanza and belzutifan. Kind of details TBD, we've agreed with our partners to kind of hold off on those details until they're up and running, but we hope that those will be available and up and running by the end of the year.
And then lastly, STELLAR-311, that's zanza versus everolimus, kind of as a first oral option in the neuroendocrine tumor space. And that really builds upon our experience and the success that we've had with cabo in that space. And so we really see the combination of all of those studies as really kind of the driver behind this concept that zanza is a franchise, the same way that cabo is a franchise. We want to go deep into multiple different indications. And then as I'm sure we'll get to later on, we think about franchises kind of multidimensionally, not only with zanza and kind of investing broadly, but within each of those indications, we want to make sure that we can be the market leader in NET, in colorectal with other programs as well.
Yes. I'm glad that you mentioned the STELLAR-303 results. Obviously, we saw the significant overall survival improvement. But it's a co-primary endpoint study and particularly in the non-liver met, we're still waiting for that readout. So give us a little background as to why you have that as a co-primary endpoint specifically and whether the prognostic value of non-liver mets versus liver mets, is there a difference there?
Yes. So the liver met, non-liver met dynamic is something that's emerged over the last 4, 5-plus years in kind of the colorectal cancer landscape. And it's really kind of an empiric observation that these patients really had different prognosis. Unsurprisingly, that if a patient unfortunately has a metastasis to the liver, they're less likely to kind of live as long, unfortunately. The other dynamic there is patients who do not have metastases in the liver, there's, again, kind of this observation that maybe they were potentially more sensitive to something like a checkpoint inhibitor, at least that was the hypothesis.
And so given kind of the expected differences or observed differences in past studies between kind of these 2 groups, STELLAR-303 was really conceived to understand can the combination of zanza/atezo be effective in either of those populations or ideally both. And so as we announced earlier this year, we hit on the ITT, which is reflective of kind of both of those groups. And at that time, the number of events that we had seen in the non-liver met cohort or non-liver met group was just immature. So kind of waiting for those events to mature and accumulate so we can kind of see an analysis there.
Can we expect that event accumulation to occur this year, by end of year? Do you think that we might see top line?
It's event-based, so kind of stay tuned on that, yes.
No, that's completely fair. Given the late-line nature of that data set, what are your plan to advance zanza into earlier lines of therapy within the colorectal space? I know you were thinking about the post-adjuvant setting.
Yes. So as I mentioned before, I think we really think about Exelixis and how we kind of build and create value is on that kind of franchise approach. So one is to really take that initial signal from 303 and go deep, go broad in colorectal cancer. And so as we looked across the CRC landscape, one of the things that certainly jumped out is the opportunity in that post-adjuvant space. I think there's a lot of really emerging compelling data to suggest that there's kind of this patient population that after they've had surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy, they're still at very high risk of recurrence, 15% plus/minus of patients basically understand that they're at high rate or high risk of recurrence. But currently, the standard of care is watch and wait.
And so what we're thinking about zanza studies to really understand can kind of a therapeutic intervention like zanza, which we know colorectal cancer is sensitive to in a kind of maintenance type setting, is that enough to essentially delay recurrence in these patients. And so it's one we're excited about kind of doing a lot of work on right now to get that study up and running, but it's really kind of goes along with this idea that once we see a signal, we want to invest in. That's true for zanza, it's true for the pipeline and was certainly true with cabo.
Yes. Why don't we shift gears a little bit now to the clear cell RCC data that you presented at ASCO, which I thought was highly encouraging relative to CheckMate 9ER. But one of the things that I noticed is that you're still combining with Opdivo. Obviously, there's the burgeoning class of the PD-1, PD-L1, VEGF inhibitors. Any thoughts here on potentially combining with one of those agents instead of just the regular individual monospecific checkpoint inhibitor?
Yes. I mean, I guess the short answer is we're constantly evaluating how to best optimize development of zanza. I think kind of one of the core principles that we talk a lot about internally is everything we do at Exelixis is really through the cabo lens. What we mean by that is cabo is successful really because of its profile and the data that we've been able to generate. And that data, we believe, are differentiating and really have helped kind of shift to the right standard of care for patients. And so when we think about zanza development, it's through the lens of can this combination truly shift -- right shift PFS, OS for patients with cancer.
And so as we evaluate opportunities to combine zanza with something like a novel bispecific, it's really asking the question, is it truly differentiated kind of versus today's standard? What are the opportunity sets that we can develop? And so certainly, these novel classes of bispecifics are interesting. I think kind of the industry at large is waiting to see how that overall survival data if it translates. But one of the things that I always bring up is we certainly are kind of developing our own portfolio of potential combinations as well. And so as we look at both internal and external combinations, again, it's through that lens of can we generate differentiating data because that's the only way we can be successful commercially and treat more patients and all of that. And so stay tuned there. It's really a matter of can we get that conviction ourselves that this combination, whether it's a doublet, whether it's a triplet, really has the ability to kind of right shift that curve.
When we think about zanza, obviously, you put out some projections where you thought that it could generate up to $5 billion, right? And obviously, I saw that you called the potential for head and neck cancer not too long ago. So factoring in that change as well as the additional Phase III trials that you plan to initiate later this year, is that $5 billion benchmark that you sort of have put out there into the ether, is that liable to change higher or lower at this point?
Yes. I mean, again, as Chris mentioned earlier, kind of that aspirational guidance about what those 5 studies with zanza can do. What we talked about on the second quarter call is one of the things that I think is unique about Exelixis is we always say we run it like a business and not a biotech. And so what that means is that we make prioritization a key focus across everything we do. And so what that 305 decision ultimately was is did we think it was competitive with kind of the emerging profiles in that space as well as was this the best kind of use of our investment dollar relative to the opportunity set.
And so what we've talked about is kind of the 2 studies, whether it's post-adjuvant CRC or the opportunity in meningioma, that's 2 to 3x kind of the market size relative to what we saw or what we thought in head and neck. And so it really was a prioritization decision at the end of the day where we wanted to make sure we were making the right investments in a space that we could truly own, again, unfortunately, for patients, the current standard in post-adjuvant CRC is watch and wait and meningioma kind of similarly, once they've exhausted options, either surgery or radiation, again, there aren't many opportunities for patients. And so it's really layering on kind of that cabo experience where we're able to kind of look at where we can best make that investment decision and prioritize. And so that was a key part of it.
Yes. And to the prioritization point, I mean, we've committed to keeping R&D expense at $1 billion or less. And so that really makes Mike and I and the team prioritize where we're investing from an R&D perspective. And if we don't see the value and we see better value somewhere else, we will make that decision to cut a program and pursue others that have better return.
Okay. Why don't we shift gears a little bit to your earlier-stage pipeline? And let's start with your USP1 inhibitor. Obviously, we've seen other players try to develop a USP1 inhibitor, but they have been since discontinued due to toxicity issues. So what do you think the differentiating factor is with regard to yours? And I want to get a sense as to why you believe that 309 won't suffer the same fate that those other USP1 inhibitors suffered.
Yes. So there's a couple of dynamics there. I think, first, it hasn't necessarily been surprising to us that we found ourselves kind of alone in the USP1 space, just given what we had thought were some kind of core liabilities with those other molecules. As it relates to 309, we think we have a particularly optimized molecule itself to really ask the question, can USP1 inhibition again, differentiate and shift that patient outcome curve to the right, either as a monotherapy in combination with PARPs.
And so we think we kind of have the optimized molecule to ask that hypothesis. And really, what we're doing right now is just running those studies to answer it yes or no. And kind of our philosophy across the board to Chris' point on prioritization, we want to get that answer as soon as we can. We want to invest in the winners and kind of discard ones that don't really kind of rise to the top of really differentiation. So kind of stay tuned there. We're in the midst of kind of generating all that data. So we'll see.
Yes. You've got a few other earlier-stage assets. And one I'm highly intrigued by is your tissue factor targeted ADC. Obviously, TIVDAK has been very successful. So -- but when we think about the competitive landscape there, obviously, there are several other tissue factor targeted ADCs in development as well. So where do you see differentiation for 371 relative to those other ADCs?
Yes. So I think kind of the -- our excitement around XB371, not only is around the biology of tissue factor and why it's an interesting target from an ADC perspective, but really kind of incorporates 3 differentiating dynamics around the ADC. We think the antibody itself, given how it's designed to be noncompetitive with Factor VII, we think it's an important kind of point of differentiation, especially relative to something like TIVDAK.
The linker technology is particularly stable. And then importantly, it has a Tecan-based warhead. The reason that Tecan-based warhead is particularly important comes back to this kind of franchise idea that I mentioned before, where we know that colorectal cancer, in particular, is sensitive to Tecan-based chemotherapies. And so given the expression profile of tissue factor, given the sensitivity of CRC to Tecans, this is an opportunity for us to kind of really go deep in CRC. And so excited to get that one up and running and generating data as soon as we can.
Well, it seems like we were running up on time. So I'm going to open up the floor to any questions if anyone has anything. All right. Thank you, gentlemen. Thanks, everyone.
Thank you.
Thank you.
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Exelixis, Inc. — H.C. Wainwright 27th Annual Global Investment Conference
Exelixis, Inc. — H.C. Wainwright 27th Annual Global Investment Conference
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Exelixis ist ein kommerzielles Onkologieunternehmen mit CABOMETYX als Umsatztreiber und Zanzalintinib („zanza“) als Next‑Gen‑TKI‑Franchise; Management setzt auf selektive Priorisierung von Indikationen, um die Zeit bis/über die Patentexpirationen hinaus Wachstum zu sichern.
- Pipelinefokus: Neben zanza werden frühe Assets (USP1‑Inhibitor, tissue‑factor ADC) aktiv geprüft; Ziel ist rasche „test‑and‑prioritize“‑Entscheidung.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Kerngeschäft: CABOMETYX bleibt Umsatztreiber; mittlere Produkt‑Guidance für das Jahr liegt bei rund $2,1 Mrd.
- Aspirationsziele: Management nennt CABO‑Peak um 2030 bei ~ $3 Mrd. und sieht zanza‑Potenzial bis ~ $5 Mrd. bis 2033 (aspirativ).
- Entwicklungsplan: Zanza (TKI: Tyrosinkinase‑Inhibitor) führt fünf pivotaler Programme (u.a. STELLAR‑303/304/311); Kooperation mit Merck (Belzutifan‑Kombination) angekündigt.
- Kapitalallokation: F&E (Forschung & Entwicklung) wird priorisiert; Budgetobergrenze ~ $1 Mrd. betont.
🔍 Neue Informationen
- Studien‑Update: STELLAR‑303 zeigte ein positives OS‑Signal (topline); Non‑Leber‑Met‑Cohort ist noch ereignis‑immatur und erwartet weitere Events.
- Kommerz: Launch in NETs (Q2) mit ~35% Marktanteil bei New‑Starts (~$20 Mio, ~4% des Q2‑Produktumsatzes).
- Priorisierungen: Management priorisiert post‑adjuvante CRC und Meningiom‑Optionen vor manchen anderen Indikationen; zusätzliche Phase‑III‑Starts noch 2024 geplant.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Patentklippe: Wie groß ist CABOMETYX’ Rolle bis Exklusivitätsende 2030/31 und wie wird der Ersatzbedarf finanziert?
- Zanza‑Zeitplan: Wann reifen die Non‑Leber‑Met‑Events für STELLAR‑303 und welche Schritte führen in earlier‑line/post‑adjuvante CRC?
- Frühe Assets: Wie differenziert 309 (USP1) und XB371 (TF‑ADC) hinsichtlich Sicherheit/Wirkmechanismus gegenüber Wettbewerbern?
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bewertung: Exelixis verfolgt eine klare kommerzielle Übergangsstrategie: CABOMETYX liefert kurzfristiges Cash, zanza soll die Post‑2030‑Lücke füllen. Entscheidend sind die anstehenden klinischen Readouts (STELLAR‑303 Non‑Leber‑Met) und die Fähigkeit, frühe Programme selektiv zu priorisieren, um nachhaltiges Wachstum zu sichern.
Exelixis, Inc. — Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Morgan Stanley's Global Healthcare Conference. I'm Sean Laaman, Head of U.S. mid-cap biotech Equity Research here at the firm. Before we begin, for important disclosures, please see Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. And if you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative.
For this session, we welcome from Exelixis, the President and CEO, Mike Morrissey. Welcome, and thank you for your time today. Mike, great to see you again.
Yes. Good to be here, for sure.
And maybe we can begin by you setting the scene a little bit or providing introductory remarks.
Yes for sure. Yes. Again, thanks for the invite. Always great to be here. This is the meeting that kicks off the fall for the industry. So always a pleasure to be part of it. Before I begin, let me just say coffee is on the way, fantastic. Super. A little early West Coast time. I'll be making forward-looking statements. So please see our SEC filings for a description of the risks that we face in our business. So Exelixis, commercial stage biotech company focused on oncology. I think we're one of the few with strong revenue growth due to our lead product, CABOMETYX. Cabozantinib is its generic name. It's a leading VEGFR targeting TKI that has additional important targets that get around both primary tumor growth and resistance, been in the market now for about 10-plus years. I've lost track, 7, 8 different indications and most notably indications in neuroendocrine tumors that came online at the end of Q1.
This year that we're really excited about. Strong team, about 1,000 people on board. We have a singular goal of improving standard of care for patients with cancer. The lens that we view the world, if you will, is through the cabo experience where by some great science, extraordinarily efficient clinical development and then just superb commercialization, we've been able to move the needle for patients and therefore, build value in the company for shareholders. And I think that's the way we look at it. In today's world, me-too drugs with me-too data don't go very far. You really have to differentiate coming into the situation to be able to move the needle for patients. And that's what we've done with cabo. And our view is then to do this again across the pipeline portfolio that we think can really build value in the years to come.
Wonderful. Thank you, Mike. Just before we get into the detail around the company, I've got some macro questions here that we're asking all our companies. So the first one is with China's rising biotech innovation, how are you thinking about Exelixis' competitive position here? And will it influence your R&D and business development?
Yes, it's a great topic. Great question. So personally, I've been working with people in China since I think the mid-'90s, my other job, I have been with Exelixis for 25 years now. Before that, I was at a company called Berlex, part of the sharing edgy world. We had strong collaboration in China. Moving to Exelixis, then we did a similar type thing back in the early 2000s, really we're able to network with a variety of different -- in that point in time, really Chinese academics. Now ensuing a couple of decades, obviously, huge shift in resource allocation and infrastructure within China. So it's a very, very important opportunity for the global biopharma ecosystem to be able to engage with, potentially work with and then use that opportunity to really move the needle for patients.
So we have a number of molecules that are currently in our portfolio that either were originated in China or part of a Chinese kind of operation, excited about those assets. Obviously, it's all about the data all the time and the opportunity to move forward. But look, the depth of resource there, the potential for innovation and the ability to then globalize that, I think it's a tremendous opportunity that we and everybody else is looking at very carefully. So time will tell if we do more there or not, but we're certainly looking at that very closely. We've got people who are there a lot and it's fertile ground for innovation.
Thank you, Mike. And on to AI. So are you currently leveraging AI? How do you think about AI's disruptive potential?
Yes, that's an important question. From the standpoint of do you want to be on the bleeding edge or the leading edge? I certainly am aware of a lot of companies that have gone all in on AI only to either pull back a little bit or question the impact on their business. It's always about separating hype from reality and the -- where you use new technologies, how you invest, how you might not want to overinvest so early in the process. So we use AI across the board whenever it can help us improve our efficiency, help us improve our performance. On the innovative side, we're still learning a lot there. We do a lot, I would say, early in the R&D process and then at different points in time to increase how we can move from an efficiency point of view.
The big aha moment, you plug in for questions and you get out a drug. We're not quite there yet. I don't think anybody is. So again, I think a certain level of skepticism in terms of what you can do and how you can use it is appropriate. But look, we're all in on technology. We're an innovative company. We have to ask the right question and then make our investments according to the ROI that we expect to see in the short term and the long term, and we're certainly in this game.
Wonderful, Mike. And on the regulatory side, what's been the most impactful for Exelixis? Has it been FDA? Has it been...
It's all -- yes, it's funny. So we talked about it. I had dinner with Sean's boss' bosses last night as part of the Morgan Stanley kind of experience. And nobody was talking about efficacy, new molecules, M&A. It was all regulatory, right? There are lots of moving pieces. There always have been. Certainly, the intensity of that now is more than normal. For us, there's kind of government chargebacks outside of the tariffs outside of MFN. There's lots of moving pieces that are theoretically issues for the industry. The current existing chargebacks, especially 340B is a real thing for us. and it's a real thing for the industry. That's almost as big as -- in terms of totality, as big as Medicare Part D right now in terms of money going from manufacturers to hospitals as opposed from manufacturers back to the government. So yes, lots to do.
I hope Congress can engage there. It's certainly a complicated calculus relative to all the different moving pieces economically. But yes, look, we're in a business of innovating for patients. And every dollar that goes away from R&D and goes somewhere else actually hurts patients, not maybe tomorrow, but 5 years from now, 10 years from now, 20 years from now. So I think the powers at B governmentally need to ask the question, what are we doing today? And what are the intended and maybe more importantly, unintended consequences for my kids, your kids, our grandkids in terms of where the science is going to go in the future. And that covers the complete gamut of therapeutic areas that we, as an industry, work on, and it's something that we have to be really, really careful about, right, going forward.
For sure, for sure. More to Exelixis specific and just starting with cabo. So you're a couple of quarters into the NET launch. Maybe you could just frame out the opportunity that you see in NET, -- how has the launch gone versus expectations? And I think you're at 4% of the business in the last quarter. And I guess, what's factored in, if anything, to fiscal '25 guidance on cabo and NET?
For sure. So NET neuroendocrine tumors, it's a relatively underserved, understudied population of patients. Last approved drug in the NET space was in 2015, 2016. The area that where we compete now with cabo for both pancreatic and extrapancreatic tumors is in the oral therapy space. And that is basically standard of care has been really revolving around everolimus, which is generic sunitinib, which is generic and then [ CAP-10 ] which is generic. So you've got relatively old drugs. I think everolimus was approved in 2014 and 2015 that are part of the toolbox that prescribers can use in how these patients treated. And what it's -- NET is a relatively unique tumor type in that it's a very indolent disease. Patients can live with that disease for literally decades and slow-growing tumors over time, especially when that -- those tumors end up in important organs can cause a problem, which is where therapy -- chemotherapy comes into play.
So we're very excited about being part of that. If you look at the oral therapy market, and the way we do it is by looking at the number of patients, drug treated, drug available patients per year, and then you use contemporaneous pricing as well as kind of duration from our CABINET study, where we showed very compelling progression-free survival in both pNET and epNET. That oral segment is about a $1 billion market basket, if you will, right? And we seek to capture as much of that as we can over the next few years. The rate-limiting step in that process, all these patients have active tumors. They're all progressing in some manner or form. So it's really having them come off their existing therapy because they're progressing and then move on to -- have the opportunity then to be treated with cabo. So excited about that. As you mentioned, I guess, as I mentioned, we got approved at the end of Q1.
Second quarter was the first full quarter of launch. We have within Exelixis, a very deep, very experienced commercial organization. We've got a GU sales force that's focused in kidney cancer, that's the kind of the base business as well as then a smaller but very effective GI sales force that covers thyroid cancer, liver cancer and now NET. So first quarter, we talked about that on the Q2 call back in August, it's about 4% of our business. So 4% of $520 million or so, that's about a $20 million revenue gain, if you will, which was a great start to that quarter. Again, first quarter of launch, it's mostly new patient starts. You don't have a lot of time for refills only 3 months in the quarter. I think doing my math, the theoretical max was around $40 million, and we did about $20 million, so $20 million plus. So that wasn't a bad place to start in terms of that first quarter.
Now the question is just do we continue to grow market share. So that was within the first quarter, about 35% based upon market research. And also, the question was asked, best-in-class therapy, get a list and cabo was best-in-class as well in that oral segment. So a great foundational start relative to where you'd like to be within weeks of launching. And now we just need to continue to do the hard work of working with physicians, educating them. And then as patients progress and have an opportunity to be put on cabo, then make that happen.
Sure. Thanks, Mike. And I guess sort of still on cabo, you've got long-term sales guidance out there, I think, almost to $3 billion by the end of the decade. How important the plank is net of that? And just to gauge your confidence of getting to that near $3 billion. I think consensus still has a significant haircut on that number.
It does. We got to fix that. Yes. So by my math, we need to grow. We put that guidance out that kind of long-range view in 2024. So we have to grow with a CAGR of 10%, 11% over those -- over that time frame to hit that, which I think, is very doable. NET is a big part of that as well as the base business, which has been growing at a very rapid clip. So I think if you look at Q2, we grew 18%, 19% year-over-year relative to second quarter 2024. So the base business is growing at a pretty good clip. And then the NET opportunity, obviously, is going to be a big contributor of that. So I would say from a commercial point of view, we have a very hungry sales team. I think commercial understands that the progress they make then fuels what's happening in the pipeline, our ability to develop zanza, our ability to build a pipeline.
Aspirationally, we've been very successful at developing our first franchise molecule in cabozantinib. We want to do that again and again and again. And that's -- I mean, it's not that complicated, right? Success in this business is really defined by the number of franchise opportunities you can move forward simultaneously. And certainly, our goal in terms of helping more patients but also then building value for shareholders is to be able to develop one franchise after another in rapid succession. And that's the whole goal behind what we're doing in R&D with zanza and the whole pipeline.
Awesome. And maybe I've got a bunch of questions on zanza and some of the readouts that may be coming out some of the events. But maybe just for those that are less familiar with the Exelixis story, what is zanza? How does it compare to cabo? And what's your vision for the program with zanza?
So zanza is a third-generation VEGFR targeting TKI. We've certainly exhaustively characterized cabo in the preclinical and clinical setting. The whole goal behind the genesis of cabo's kind of story was asking some fundamental questions around what drives tumor growth, what drives vascular growth, what are the targets involved with that? And then being able to not only attack those directly, but also ask the question biologically, what drives resistance to those important targets. And we tied that all together into a single molecule, which is cabozantinib. And on top of that, then over time, understand its impact on the immune system. So cabo really attacks every important cell type, a lot of important pathways in tumor growth, vascular growth and the impact of the immune system on driving its antitumor activity, both on the humoral side and the adaptive side.
So it's a packaged molecule that we like a lot and its target inhibition profile is one that we didn't want to mess around with too much multi-targeted inhibitor. You're never 100% sure what targets and the affinity, if you will, for its inhibition actually drives what activity. So to keep that intact, the one downside from cabo that we've heard in the past is that its long half-life hampers the ability to dose adjust. And every -- most molecules in terms of chronic oncology therapy will need to be dose adjusted on an individual patient per patient. So doing that with a 4- or 5-day half-life is more challenging than to say, with zanza, which has a 1-day half-life. So the insight between going from cabo to zanza was keep the profile the same and then build in metabolic liabilities in a very, I think, intelligent fashion to make the half-life a little bit shorter.
So then it would be better and easier to dose adjust, which is what we did. And all the Phase I data that we published to date supports that. So very, very simple story. We've got 2 -- now 2 ongoing -- actually, 3 ongoing pivotal trials and then a couple more to start in our collaboration with Merck this year. Again, the goal is to work in both the white space from cabo, learning from cabo as well as other overlapping opportunities like in RCC to be able to build this next franchise molecule that will take us well into the 30s.
Wonderful. And more recently, we saw the mCRC STELLAR-303 data and you announced positive top line results and start seeing OS improvement versus rego in the ITT population. The trial is proceeding to plan final analysis for the other dual OS primary endpoint in patients without liver mets. Can you remind us of the biological differences between the 2 patient populations and how your study design has evolved since the first iteration?
Yes. So the biological differences between a patient without liver mets and non-liver met patients and liver met patients isn't really that well characterized. I think there's been some very important empirical data sets generated around patients with non-liver mets. So patients without liver mets actually -- well, first, they certainly have a better overall prognosis, as you would expect, if your liver is not compromised, then you're probably going to live longer. And number two, those patients appear, again, with all the caveats, the single-arm, non-randomized data to respond better to checkpoint therapy, right? And that's somewhat controversial, but that's the hypothesis that's been put out there by a number of investigators and kind of huge kind of real-world databases highlighting that, that's the possibility.
So we designed STELLAR-303 to look at the overall population, the ITT population. Non-liver met population is about 1/3, 30% or so of the overall incidence. And most patients will, over time, progress from having clean livers, no liver mets to heavy liver mets. So tracking that closely is obviously very important, too. So yes, so we designed the study, zanza plus atezolizumab, atezo versus regorafenib. I'll point out that to date, there have been 4 additional third-line plus studies done using checkpoints that have failed. There were 2 PD-1 LAG-3 combinations that failed. There was a PD-1 TKI trial that failed and there was a PD-L1 MEK inhibitor trial that failed with all contemporaneous.
So it's an area that has been, I think, viewed as interesting and certainly unmet, but has been kind of a tough place to operate in terms of actually moving the needle, right? All the other trials, all the other compounds that have actually been effective here, they have all gone against placebo in some shape, manner or form. So it's really -- we're asking a very fundamentally different question. Can we go against a standard of care in regorafenib and actually improve overall survival in the ITT population, which we have, and that was the top line data as well as in the 2 subpopulations, non-liver mets and liver mets. And the non-liver mets is still undone.
Got you. And how do your OS expectations for patients with liver mets versus non-liver mets versus the blended ITT population?
So let's punt on that question until the data comes out a little bit, hopefully later this year.
Yes, please.
Expectations are -- were expectations, now they're the reality. So let's just talk about that data when it comes out.
Okay. Okay. Looking at the available mCRC therapies and what's considered standard of care, how are you thinking about rego versus zanza in terms of the competitive bar in this patient population?
Yes. Again, we'll have a lot more to say about that when the data comes out from 303. The standard of care, if you look historically at the data, it looks pretty similar, right? I'll remind everybody that over time, standard of care normally improves in terms of physicians and investigators learn how to use these drugs better and better, different dosing regimens, et cetera. So we think we have a very competitive profile with zanza/atezo. And it also potentially speaks to -- CRC has been historically a cold tumor, hasn't been effective outside of the MSI population. So to be able to have a therapy that actually impacts that could be really useful here, too.
Sure. Next question I get a lot of inbound on. So you indicated that you plan to file for approval in this indication as quickly as possible. When might we be able to hear an update?
Yes. When we get that done?
Okay. You mentioned going to early lines of CRC with a focus on the post-adjuvant setting based on the 303 data. Can you talk about how you're thinking about the patient opportunity and market?
Yes, it's really interesting. So we talked about the idea of this kind of 2-dimensional way of looking at franchises. And cabo, again, cabo is one where we have multiple indications within a different compound -- within the same compound. Going into indications like colon cancer, NET, where we can use multiple approaches, multiple different compounds, we think is very, very attractive. And I really like the diversity of approaches here because that's ultimately how you can build value the fastest is by going after both. So CRC, again, what standard of care post surgery is adjuvant chemotherapy. There's actually pretty good efficacy with that long-term survival follow-up and disease-free survival follow-up for a large set of patients.
Unfortunately, a significant number in the U.S., 10,000 plus or minus patients every year are actually poor prognosis for disease-free survival. They progress faster. So -- and that adjuvant chemotherapy it works to a certain degree, but doesn't really stick and you've got patients who are progressing radiographically relatively quickly. So if you could identify those patients and have them be on a maintenance, and we think a molecule like zanza now having proven survival in a later line setting could be an ideal choice. If you have the right overall safety profile, you have the right dose, you have the right opportunity to get in there with kind of a maintenance therapy post adjuvant in this higher-risk population where the trade-off in terms of safety versus potential efficacy is in the right direction. It could be a really attractive way to go.
So we're excited about that. That should come online late this year, early next year. We also have some important new molecules moving forward from our pipeline into CRC. So XB371, which is a tissue factor targeting ADC, coupled with a Tecan-based warhead is actually designed perfectly for working in CRC. So you can imagine either single-agent work or combination work with zanza to be able to further kind of reinforce this foundation around the CRC franchise going forward. So pretty exciting for sure.
Wonderful. Thank you, Mike. And moving over to 304 and non-clear cell CC. So I think you updated the time line pushed out to [ in lines ] '26. So how would you frame the way investors should think about that changing?
Fully enrolled with just coming events. So stay tuned. Can't get much more simpler than that, right?
Sure. And STELLAR-311 in advanced NET has begun. Is this complete overlap with the current cabo approval? And how are you thinking about potential cannibalization?
Yes. So our zanza -- let me take a step back. Our zanza approach here is to look at -- again, look at the landscape of indications for zanza versus cabo and keep the early indications where there's minimal overlap going first and then those with potential overlap happening later in terms of trial enrollment readout and potential approval. So in the case of the RCC, the clear cell RCC trials we're doing with Merck, 311 and NET, those would probably come online if successful clinically in hitting kind of maximal escape velocity from a revenue point of view post the LOE for cabo in the early 30s, right? So that timing is somewhat calculated based upon kind of the cabo life cycle, right, and not cannibalizing cabo sales with zanza.
That being said, cabo in the [indiscernible] study, cabo was study that gets placebo in later-line patients and eventually covered a lot of different kinds of patients because it enrolled so long and standard of care was changing. With the 311 study, zanza is being compared head-to-head against everolimus. And all the market research that we've done, KOLs that we've talked to said that if something could beat standard of care, they would use that over a molecule like cabo that just beat placebo. So we're playing this game, if you will, of, again, raising the bar, raising expectations for the kind of data we have to be able to generate to then improve standard of care for patients. And I think if we can do that effectively, whether we do it in renal, whether we do it in NET, that will really give us an opportunity to then be very successful commercially when those molecules get to market.
Sure, sure. Still laying out the landscape for zanza and you announced the discontinuation in head and neck and if you could frame out sort of the reasons why I think you said emerging competition and there are bigger opportunities elsewhere for zanza. So maybe just a bit more measure on the buy [indiscernible].
Yes, sure, sure. Well, I'll cover the same themes we talked about on earnings back in August. Look, we're in a -- what we do well, and we've done well historically is prioritize how we make investments. We've committed to the Street to keep our R&D spending kind of capped at about $1 billion a year. So we have to make choices. And we have to make choices based upon the ROI from a clinical point of view and a commercial point of view and the competition, the full framework of how you make investments in a very careful, thoughtful manner. So we designed the STELLAR-305 study to be a Phase II/III design because we wanted to be able to take an interim look at that data. We did that. We didn't think we had an overly competitive profile.
At the same time, head and neck versus this post-adjuvant kind of maintenance CRC, where there's large population, a long -- high possibility for long duration of therapy, which, as you know, is a real driver. If you can staff patients, compounding is real, it works, right? As well as in meningioma, which is a form -- a relatively indolent form of brain cancer that is completely underserved chemotherapeutically, uses basically surgery and radiation before that it kind of runs out of time -- patient runs out of time. And we have some very, very compelling data there with cabo in terms of seeing not only tumor shrinkage radiographically, but symptomatic relief in terms of people being able to walk again or being able to see again with the tumors back -- kind of behind the eye. So pretty compelling data there.
When you look at those opportunities from a commercial point of view, they're probably two to threefold higher than what we were thinking about with head and neck. So for us, it was kind of a no-brainer. We prioritize based upon data. It doesn't mean we're not going to go back into head and neck, but certainly, from a priority point of view, it's a lower priority and pick the winners and execute extremely well and build value. So it's a constant reshuffling of priorities. We've done that with cabo effectively and then with the company effectively over the years. So that will just continue. That's the status quo for us, right?
Sure, of course. And you mentioned earlier on cabo that you've got the peak revenue guidance out there before the end of the decade, but consensus is somewhat shy of that. And that's even more true for zanza where you've got, I think it's a $5 billion peak revenue forecast in 2034, if I remember correctly.
Yes.
And consensus is probably about half that number. But just, I guess, sort of the feedback from investors, what are you hearing? What are the proving points that you think are going to get a more optimistic view from Street?
So I think -- well, certainly, p-values help with that, right? So there's -- I think we put that guidance kind of aspirational view of what success looks like that far out with the idea. We did that back in the third quarter of 2024 after the ANDA rulings came out, which were, again, very favorable for us. But we needed to put a stake in the ground and kind of refocus everybody away from ANDA and ANDA to pipeline zanza growth, right? And so I think the whole idea was to take people like you and your colleagues on the sell side and certainly the buy-side world and just say, hey, we're more than just the cabo. We had a similar situation back in 2019 for 9ER readout. We probably had 1,000 meetings in 2019. And every meeting was are you going to be able to get survival in 9ER.
Again, it's cabo/nivo versus you're going to be able to see survival, how do you compete with [indiscernible] ipi/nivo? How are you going to be able to grow revenues? And the reality is between 2019 and 2024 -- 2025, we've tripled revenues, right, with that data. So in some ways, you have to frame for investors where you're going, what you think is possible, what you're working towards and then you have to execute flawlessly and rigorously to make sure that you're checking off all the boxes to get to those numbers going forward. But we've hit all of our milestones in the past. We're very excited about the opportunity going forward. Think pipeline of franchise molecules, cabo, zanza and then the next couple. And we think we can have outsized growth in terms of the impact for patients and for shareholders, and that's what we're doing every single day.
Awesome, Mike. And on the 4 early-stage programs in Phase I, is the one that gets you excited the most?
Yes. Well, there -- obviously always use the favorite child analogy, which today, both my kids are doing great, so I like them. But the -- we're not here to build a big pipeline. Those kinds of -- kind of pipeline stacking numbers don't never impressed me, don't impress me. It's kind of a fault facade. We have a big pipeline and a deep pipeline of early-stage assets because we're looking to find the winner. We're looking to find the needle in the haystack, the next cabo that can move the needle for patients. And you've got to be able to run enough trials, if you will, for the winners to stand up and say, "Hey, I'm a good molecule. I'm different than blah, blah, blah, invest more in. So certainly, XB010, our most advanced bispecific looks really interesting. Hopefully, over the next block of time, we'll get to a go/no-go there in terms of do we go into full development?
Do we stop it? XL309, our USP1 inhibitor is an area where the competition has just dissolved for kind of bad PK, bad safety that -- so we're standing alone there in terms of both monotherapy in combination with the PARPs. That could be really interesting. We got more work to do there actually, but it's looking pretty interesting. We talked about 371, which we're really excited about. Our first bispecific is XB628, which targets PD-L1 and NKGA2, (sic) [ NKG2A ] Which is an NK cell target. So to be able to bring in T cells and NK cells into tumors, we think is pretty attractive, too. So lots of moving pieces there. And again, it's not a matter of just having them, but it's -- we want to find the winners and have those molecules in advance because a molecule advancing into late-stage development is one step closer than to having a franchise in place, and that's the goal.
Sure, sure. Wonderful. And I guess I don't get a lot of inbound on this, but just lastly, maybe -- and what I find fascinating is that the balance sheet the company has and the cash flow that you're generating. I don't think it gets like a lot of attention, but I think it should.
I agree.
So just sort of your thoughts around OpEx going forward.
Yes. So we have -- since Chris joined back in 2015, we have really made it a priority to run the business like a business. Most biotechs are just cash kind of internals in terms of cash in, cash spent, financings and spending. And we have been very disciplined about how we've done that. And certainly, the cabo franchise has given us an opportunity to clean up our balance sheet, some kind of our historical growth and then generate free cash. We've done about $1.8 billion in buybacks since the middle of 2023. So that's really, I think, appropriate. Yes, we're continued -- we've been profitable for gosh, I don't know how many quarters in a row now.
So that gives us optionality to do the appropriate level of thoughtful and practical capital allocation between BD investing in the internal pipeline, which is, again, capped at about $1 billion a year and then any kind of buybacks that we can do to give back money to shareholders. SG&A has been relatively flat. Obviously, we get approved in CRC, then we'll have to incrementally grow the commercial business. But that's a big important part of the process in terms of how we go. And certainly, as we build out zanza into GI, again we want to be market leaders in both GI and GU, and that requires a little bit more work in SG&A. So be it.
Awesome. Well, we're fresh out of time, but wonderful to talk to, Mike.
You bet, and thanks again.
Thanks for attending. I really appreciate it.
You bet. All right. Awesome. Thank you.
Thank you, Mike.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
Exelixis, Inc. — Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
📊 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Management stellt CABOMETYX-Commercialisierung und die Entwicklung von zanza als nächstes Franchise in den Vordergrund. Positiver Start in Neuroendokrine Tumoren (NET) und ein positives STELLAR‑303-Topline‑Signal in metastasiertem kolorektalem Krebs (mCRC) reduzieren klinisches Risiko; Kapitaldisziplin bleibt hoch.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Zanza: Drittes‑Gen-VEGFR-TKI mit ~1‑Tages-Halbwertszeit (bessere Dosisanpassung). Laufende pivotalen Studien, Partnerschaft mit Merck für RCC-Kombinationen.
- CABOMETYX/NET: NET-Launch: erstes vollständiges Quartal ~4% des Umsatzes (~$20M), Erstmarktanteil ~35% laut Management; GU- und kleiner GI-Vertriebsteam aktiv.
- Kapital & R&D: R&D‑Budget cap ~ $1 Mrd/Jahr, disziplinäre Kapitalallokation; $1,8 Mrd Aktienrückkäufe seit Mitte 2023, profitabel und Cash‑generierend.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Klinik: STELLAR‑303: positive Topline‑OS gegenüber Regorafenib im ITT; Finalanalyse für Subpopulation ohne Lebermetastasen steht noch aus. STELLAR‑311 (NET) begonnen; 304 (non‑clear cell) auf 2026 terminiert.
- Guidance: Management signalisierte keine formelle Änderungen an Umsatz‑Guidance; plant zügige Zulassungseinreichung in mCRC—Datum offen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Subgruppen: Analysten hakten nach OS‑Erwartungen für Patienten mit vs. ohne Lebermetastasen; Management verweist auf kommende Detaildaten.
- Wettbewerb & Markt: Zweifel am Erreichen von Peak‑Prognosen (CABO ~ $3Mrd, zanza ambitioniert) und Nachfrage‑/Konsumptionsraten im NET‑Segment wurden diskutiert.
- Makro & Regulierung: China‑Kooperationen, Einsatz von AI in R&D und regulatorische Risiken (u. a. 340B, Medicare‑Themen) wurden als wesentliche Unsicherheitsfaktoren benannt.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Die Präsentation stärkt das Narrativ: starkes CABOMETYX‑Momentum, erstes klinisches De‑Risking für zanza durch STELLAR‑303‑Topline und konservative Kapitalführung. Nächste Katalysatoren sind vollständige STELLAR‑303‑Daten, Zulassungszeitplan und kommerzielles Scaling in NET/CRC – diese Daten werden den Wert für Aktionäre entscheidend präzisieren.
Exelixis, Inc. — Citi's Biopharma Back to School Conference
1. Question Answer
Thank you for being here today at the 2025 Citi Biopharma Conference in Boston. Happy to have with us this afternoon. our good friends from Exelixis, Michael, I guess you could just introduce yourself and the company. I'm sure anyone listening to this already knows who you are and knows about the company. But any words?
It's great to be here and just a beautiful day in Boston. I really appreciate the opportunity to come chat with you and your -- all your colleagues here today. Yes. So I'm Mike Morrissey, Chief Executive at Exelixis. We're a cancer-focused commercial company that really is dedicated in our mission to improving the standard of care in the treatment of cancer for patients with cancer. And we're excited about having a leading molecule in kidney cancer called CABOMETYX, cabozantinib, by its generic name, and have some interesting, a lot of great data there and certainly a strong commercial platform to be able to get that to patients.
The newest news this year is around the NET indication that came online at the end of Q1, and we launched in Q2. And obviously, our story, certainly aspirationally is to go beyond cabo and to build a pipeline of franchise molecules, essentially. The learnings from cabo and building that franchise over the last decade, I think, has really set us up well to be able to build a multi-compound multi-franchise business in the future with zanzolitinib, that's next molecule up in a variety of pivotal trials as well as in a deep pipeline of both small molecules and biologics.
So we have big goals, big dreams for the company and being able to take standard of care to the next level for patients and thrilled to be able to talk about that today.
And in a lot of ways, for years, Exelixis the constant has been cabo, and it's been growing and growing and kind of growing incrementally, adding new indications over time. And it's shown a lot of endurance, so to speak. Could you tell us about how it started from COMETRIQ, cabozantinib and ultimately, how you incrementally grew the franchise and where things stand today, you're still growing the franchise, but also there is the intellectual property. Kind of exploration..
Yes, for sure. Yes, it's -- in some ways, it's a classic story in the biotech business, the journey to discover novel innovative matter in a way that, again, moves the needle for patients. The cabo story goes back to the mid-2000s when we asked, I think, a number of very simple questions around what drives tumor resistance to anti-angiogenic therapy, namely VEGF modulation. What is the -- what are the key drivers for resistance in tumors. And if you look at the data at the time with bevacizumab with some of the small molecule VEGFR targeting TKI, sunitinib, pazopanib, axitinib, there was some really, I think, interesting emerging themes around the idea that tumors will drive redundant pathways to VEGF to get around VEGF inhibition.
And those revolve primarily around the RTK, the receptor tyrosine kinase MET and AXL and the relatively simple, but I think very elegant approach that we had at the time, the hypothesis was that if we could inhibit VEGF and MET and AXL as the primary growth drivers for not just the tumor but also the tumor vascular or the growth and the resistance mechanisms, then we would be able to basically build a better molecule. That could both be antitumoral and as well as anti-angiogenic. Along the way, we've learned more about cabo and that class of molecules in terms of its impact on a variety of other signaling pathways that are involved in tumor immunomodulation as well as other types of tumor growth signals that has really packed a lot of punch into that molecule and that scaffold. So that was the original impetus for actually designing the molecule that we made. We started out looking at the lowest of low-hanging fruit that was medullary thyroid cancer with COMETRIQ at the time.
We had a capsule formulation, and that was based upon some very interesting signals we saw even in the first handful of patients in Phase I. It's a very rare tumor type. We ran a pivotal trial in that. That was clear big win from a PFS point of view. And that was after a couple of big failures in prostate cancer. You'll recall back in the early 2010, '11 time frame, we saw some pretty compelling activity in prostate cancer, both in terms of directly inhibiting tumor growth with prostate, either primary tumor or metastases, but also very interesting activity in the bone scans in the bone mets that most prostate cancer normally targets.
So the interesting point is that didn't actually work, we ran 2 pivotal trials in prostate cancer. Both of those failed. On top of that, we had discovered cabo as part of a collaboration with GSK. They gave it back to us. They didn't want it. Then we partnered with BMS based upon some additional data we had in GBM and other tumor types. They did a little bit of work and give it back to us. So it was a twice rejected failed pivotal trial in prostate cancer molecule that didn't look always the best that had somewhat of a tarnished profile. And if you'll recall back in the -- this goes back ancient history in the 2014, 2015 time frame. We shrunk the company down. We focused on one last shot in renal cancer. We were down to less than 100 people. I think we had 80 people in the company that cover basically the RCC trial and then the minimal G&A that we needed to be able to run the business. But that worked, right? The METEOR trial was -- not only was it a success in RCC, but the trifecta of winning in an overall survival and progression-free survival and response rate was the first time a molecule actually did that in RCC.
So it's set -- in some ways, it set a whole new standard for not only small molecules, but at the time, other modalities even like checkpoint inhibitors, which obviously improves survival. Didn't hit PFS right away. So we were up and running in the 2015 time frame when that -- in July of 2015 when that METEOR trial read out and had that momentum then to move forward and then added indications beyond that in terms of second-line liver cancer, differentiated thyroid cancer. And then really, most importantly, we collaborated with BMS with nivolumab in a study that was called CheckMate 9ER that was looking at cabo plus nivo versus sunitinib head to head.
And again, one across the board in terms of response rate of PFS and overall survival. I think the key there is that we looked a little bit lower dose instead of starting at 60 milligrams, started at 40 milligrams in that combination. And the impact on quality of life was significant. We actually had quality of live benefit as well as compared to sunitnib. So that profile was very compelling. We had a leading second-line share up until then, I think our revenues in 2019 were in the $700 million, $750 million range. And we thought that was a great way to then really double down and build the business.
And over the last 4 or 5 years, revenues have tripled based upon the strength of that data and based upon our ability to, I think, really educate docs on the opportunity in the first line and second line level. So a great story. Company and the employees showed tremendous resilience. And this is a game that we play that kind of borders on, got to have the right data, but you never have enough data, you also have to believe in what you're doing and believe in the possibilities of what small data sets can offer in terms of aspirationally trying to improve the outcome for patients. So a great team effort.
Certainly, navigating COVID and all those challenges were a big part of the early '20s. And here we are today in the middle of 2025 with cabo. The net indication, as I mentioned, is certainly a very important part of the story. I'm sure we'll talk about that more. And then we have this pipeline with Zanza and other small molecules, other biologics that were super excited about. But cabo is the driver. We have the lens by which cabo provides insight into us more broadly that we use every day and certainly frames our idea what success can look like.
So at this point, clearly, you issued guidance this year, $2.25 billion to $2.35 billion. Obviously, the driver of that is RCC. How much room is there left in RCC first in the renal cell carcinoma? And then towards that end, one of the things I think investors have kind of been trying to get their hands around is what is the net opportunity? How significant is it?
Yes. So let's talk about the base business first, right, because RCC is a big part of it, but it's not all of it. Certainly, the -- we started the year with a midpoint of guidance for net product revenue, not total revenue, which you mentioned, but net product revenue of $2 billion plus or minus $50 was the range. We had a super strong first quarter, and we raised that midpoint from $2 billion to $2.1 billion. And that's a majority of the base business, a little bit of net built in there, but it's the majority of the base business.
Question is how much more can we grow, right? And as you would imagine, we've been getting that question every year, every quarter since, I would say, the middle of 2022, right? Because if you look at the longitudinal data across most oncology molecules, small molecules, biologics, whatever in the commercial setting, you normally hit that kind of peak share peak plateau revenue within 4, 5, 6 quarters. That's what you normally see. And with cabo in the first-line setting, that's been very different, right? We have been growing quarter after quarter after quarter.
In fact, if you look at Q2 '25 versus Q2 '24, we grew 4 points in market share, which is pretty incredible and really just speaks to, I think, the quality of the data, the quality of the team, the energy and the urgency and the intensity by which we educate physicians. We understand the market dynamics really well. We have just phenomenal analytics in terms of understanding prescribing trends for cabo for other molecules, where we're strong, where we're weak and we have -- we're a big small company.
So we have this nimble approach to being able to shift priorities and resources really, really quickly. It's just -- it's a conversation between whatever the topic, whatever the part of the organization me and the department head and then maybe a small cadre of people and off we go. So it's a phenomenal way to maneuver in a very dynamic environment where in the RCC space, we're competing with the big guys, right, with the BMS and with Merck and with Pfizer and with Eisai, the list just goes on and on.
So we need to be at the top of our game every single day. And we have it, and that needs to continue, and that will continue. So how do we grow in the future? We keep doing what we do what we've been doing, and we keep asking the hard questions and then we maneuver effectively what's the limit? I don't know. I wouldn't give -- I wouldn't feel comfortable giving you a number because I don't think there is a limit.
So in the first-line setting, we probably have a 25% market share. So there's room to grow there in the second and second plus line setting, we're probably in the 45-plus percent market share, so there's room to grow there. So the question is just how do we maneuver in those two different opportunities? How do we move more upfront? Because obviously, we have a much longer duration of therapy and the stacking potential is a real phenomenon here. Compounding works, right? When you talk about patients being on drug for 13, 14, 15, whatever months. So that really drives important benefit for them and for us, too.
So that's the that's the focus, and we have a sales team that's committed. And I would argue best in class to making sure that we maximize the value of that opportunity every single day. On the net side, net is -- it's super interesting for us. We've been in that space with collaborators. In fact, Jennifer Chan is here at Dana-Farber, she ran a Phase II study in net with a handful of 35 or so patients years ago, generated some really interesting Phase II data we saw PFS in the 15, 20 month range.
That was really compelling and really out of the box from what you would normally see with a small molecule everolimus sunitinib, whatever. So that prompted her to work with the Alliance cooperative group to run a pivotal trial called Cabinet, two different -- actually, two different trials in one run. One in pancreatic NETs, one in EP or extra pancreatic net kind of part of the bundled into the same overall trial.
That read out positive for PFS in both of those "cohorts", all the filing data has been released. Public papers have been published. Filings have been done. So -- and we've got approved in that in the U.S. at the end of Q1, and I think in the EU right around ASCO, maybe a little bit after ASCO. So that was actually a really, really good approach where through a very strong collaboration with our academic colleagues we're able to bring the first new molecule to the METs space in 10 years.
That hasn't been an approval in that since 2015, 2016. So that's pretty exciting, too. The opportunity there, we think, is significant. By our math, if you look at the oral therapy basket, which is basically comprises everolimus, sunitinib and CAPTEM and those are all generic now. So you use contemporaneous pricing, you use cabinet-type duration. That basket is about $1 billion in value. So we would like to be able to capture as much of that as we can. And we have the mindset and the mandate to go out and do that. So we launched at the very end of Q1, had a real strong start to Q2.
Again, first quarter is mostly new patient starts, not a lot of refills in a couple of months, but that's gotten off to a great start. We're seeing things grow I think, at a pretty good pace in Q3. So we're off to the races. But again, using 9ER as an example, to go from launching in basically January of '21. So what we saw in Q2 of '25, that kind of a ramp it's been dramatic in some ways, but it's also been a steady grind to get market share built up and to get patient stacking and those kinds of things. It just really reinforces the kind of value you can bring if you just stay in there, execute perfectly, have the right team that can engage and just get the job done.
When you talk about the basket of these different oral therapies out there are there pockets where of preference where each one gets used and towards that end, which do you see one as being a kind of a low-hanging fruit to go after those particular populations versus the other? Or is it much more complicated?
Yes. Well, I'm not sure it's more complicated. I think everybody, look, every physician are treater has their own preference based upon personal experience. The feedback that we're getting, and this is from, again, formal market research, from talking to docs from kind of anecdotal feedback is that people are really excited about cabo.
And why is that? Number one, the cabinet data with all the caveats across old comparisons, and we should never do that. Everybody does it. And the data looks certainly very compelling based upon people's experiences with kind of real-world data with other compounds. So there's a high level of enthusiasm based upon the CABINET data. It's been presented a couple of times. We had a New England Journal of Medicine paper. So it's certainly very been very well documented publicly and very well received.
Secondly, cabo has been around long enough where a lot of people have used it in their practice already. So by our analysis, about 80% of the current net prescribers have actually written a cabo script in the past 6 to 9 months, right? So there's a high level of experience with cabo and real comfort with how to use it, what dose to use, how to watch for adverse events, how to manage through that because it's been so well utilized and so successful in other indications: renal cancer, liver cancer, thyroid cancer and so on. So it's not a brand-new drug. It's just a new indication, right? And then finally, and I think really importantly is there's just a level of interest in the opportunity for patients. Every patient who has advanced metastatic NETs, right?
It's an indolent disease, but they all need therapy, right? And they're all on an active therapy. So the rate-limiting step is basically patients progressing on their current therapy. And we've been told by get market research, talking to docs, kind of anecdotal feedback that cabo is #1 on their list all things being equal to try when their patients progress on their current therapy. So in some ways, rate-limiting step is just available patients coming up for the next drug, right? And the way CABINET was run, and partly, I think it was just because it took a while to enroll a U.S.-only study run by U.S. cooperative group.
It enrolled over, I think, about a 6-, 7-year period. So every possible framework of patient experience in terms of prior therapies, tissue of origin age the demographics were probably as wide it could have been. So the physicians really have a very good basket of information to choose from based upon how their individual patient's progress. And we probably have data there in some shape, manner or form CABINET. So all in all, we're getting off to a great start. We're super excited. We have a strong GI team that's in place that covers thyroid, covers liver and now covers NET with support from the GU team. And certainly, as zanza comes online, again, the first opportunity there is going to be in GI and CRC. So if we can double down and build another -- either part of that GI team or augmented to that to be able to help us get the word out around NETs.
So much the better.
With that, we'll jump over to zanza. I'll tell you, I always call Sansa,and I'm taking Sansa Stark, GOT fans out there, terrible joke, I apologize, but I had to say it.
In the day just but...
You're going to hear me refer to as zanza.
It sounds very elegant. So just have at it. So...
When we talk zanza, we've had some data recently. Could you update us as to -- this is clearly, a major product. It's kind of the next generation of cabo. There's differences actually before we even get to the data, how is it different than cabo?
Yes. So Zanza was designed to phenocopy cabo's intrinsic inhibitory activity. Any multi-targeted molecule, it's actually really hard to tease out what's driving the antitumor anti-vascular kind of pro-inflammatory activities when you're hitting a number of RTKs at the same time, right? So we didn't want to mess with that because while we have, I would say, pretty strong hypotheses and pretty strong beliefs about why things are happening.
We don't actually exactly know because it's a pleiotropic agent across. Really, every relevant pathway and cell type and kind of covers the entire tumor micro environment in a way that is potentially good. So we wanted to keep the inhibitory activities similar between cabo and zanza. We did that through in vitro assays through pharmacodynamic assays approve that early in the clinical setting as well. So we have a good sense of being able to kind of, again, reinforce the attributes of cabo that we think are important.
The one downside from cabo that we've heard over the years is that it's long half-life, 4- to 5-day half-life in man. Complicates dose reductions, which are invariably going to happen with a VEGFR-targeting molecule. That's true for biologics. That's true for small molecules. You have to find the right dose, and you actually have to individually titrate every patient for their best dose based upon physical characteristics metabolizing enzymes, any other kind of our predisposition that they might have.
So doing that might involve with cabo 7 to 10-plus day old. The molecule kind of washes out. And then do you restart? Do you move to another molecule, et cetera. So very early on, very simple, but again, very elegant approach here was to simply introduce a metabolic liability into the cabo scaffold that would basically, we could find 2.5 life.
We made a variety of different molecules, and we had a very, I think, clever and kind of very exhaustive design and SIR analysis to be able to pick the zanza modification out that gave us about 1 day plus or minus half life. So that makes -- potentially makes all those kinds of things much easier to then operate in terms of dose reductions and adverse event management. So that was the whole plan. And like you said, we've had -- I think we've had some pretty compelling data over the last like couple of years now in kidney cancer.
Myotherapy combination with, say, checkpoint inhibitors like nivolumab in RCC where we see a very good activity, very good duration, good response rates, good tolerability, low discount rates, all those kinds of things you want to see. And then we had some data at ASCO GI earlier this year in third line plus colorectal cancer, which is the population that we're studying in STELLAR-303.
That allows us to feel good about kind of the overall activity profile and adverse event profile in that tumor type while we were doing the STELLAR-303 study, that's the first pivotal trial to enroll and to read out in late June, where we had positive top line results in the ITT population against regorafenib, and that was in combination zanzalintinib in combination with atezolizumab versus rego head-to-head.
So notable in that it's the first successful trial against an active control head-to-head that's been done in the space, to my knowledge forever, right? There have been four of the pivotal trials that have failed over the last block of time, two checkpoint WAG 1 combinations that failed. There was atezo, cobimetinib, so a MET inhibitor trial that failed and then len/pem versus standard of care field as well. So notable that you think late line, something here is going to work. The reality is the bar has been super, super high.
And you've seen the standard of care increase over time, too, which is certainly part of the challenge as patients get. As physicians and patients have more experience with any standard of care if that gets better. So the bar actually doesn't stay static to where the first approval was, but it actually grows over time. And you see this in liver cancer and renal cancer and others.
So it's a moving target to a certain degree. But we're thrilled with that and hoping to have data out to share, both in terms of presentation and publication soon waiting to see when abstracts get submitted and actually say when they get accepted, they have been submitted and have a sense on kind of what's going to happen in terms of presentations and stuff. So we got a lot of questions about that today and people want to know when this is coming out, and the answer is just stay tuned. When we have an accepted abstract that we have details to share, we'll be talking about that. ASAP.
For those particular conference, what are the deadlines of the...
It's a good question. I don't actually know. It's a good question. So wait [indiscernible] and we can back into time.
There's also the head and neck. Can you tell us about that experience?
Sure. So we started three pivotal trials in the last few years, right? 303 was in CRC, 304 is in non-clear cell RCC and 305 was in head and neck, 304 finished enrollment in the second quarter. And based on event rates, we think that will read out in the first half of '26. 305 was Zanza plus pembro versus pembro in frontline head and neck cancer. That was a Phase II/III design.
We had a gate between Phase II and Phase III we hit that gate and we looked at the data and just didn't think we were going to have a competitive profile. And it was really as much of a data issue as it was a simple resource allocation issue in the ensuing months over the last 6 or so months or so, we have some really, I think, interesting new opportunities in colon cancer in meningioma, potentially that we think are higher value in terms of their commercial potential, have little to no competition, whereas head and neck has a lot of emerging competition with other trials and pivotal trials -- other compounds and pivotal trials.
And the overall, I think it was just a good way to build a franchise in CRC, knowing that we had the colon for signal and colon that looked so positive. So look, it's a high attrition game. We're not going to win every time. It's okay. We're still interested in head and neck. It's a tough tumor type based upon how those patients present. Normally, we think we have the appropriate insights. If we want to go back, if we choose to go back based upon how we prioritize indications we can if we're interested in that.
But we're really, really focused on building franchise molecules and reinforcing franchises around indications. I think that's -- that's been the success story of Exelixis is doubling down in cabo, finding the winning indications, finding the winning combinations. So building a franchise within a molecule is classic way of doing it.
The other way is to focus on indications. And when I think about NETs, I think about colorectal cancer, I think about even something as really unstudied as meningioma, those are all areas that we think we can really playing fields, work in fields that are less populated with competition. So some of those, there's no existing standard of care. So to be able to understand the biology, understand how zanza and/or other molecules could work in those spaces. I think it's a really, really important way to go, right?
So think about colon cancer, move up in line, post adjuvant in some of these high-risk patients would be a great way to provide real benefit in kind of a maintenance setting post adjuvant and post surgery. I think about colon, we have a molecule now in the clinic XP371, that is a tissue factor targeting ADC with topotecan payloads. So that's specifically designed for topo-sensitive tumor types like non-small cell lung cancer, like colon cancer.
So they'll be able to think about doing zanza-371 combinations could be really attractive to, right? So different ways to slice and dice things here. But again, we're always focused on multiple shots within building a franchise, whether it be within a molecule hierarchy or across any other access in terms of the indication.
No, of course, renal cell has been such a big part of cabo. That's more -- that's been clear cell and you have non-clear cell going on as well. Can you tell us more about the differences? I think there's a tendency by investors to kind of confound renal cell, the clear cell and the non-clear cell. How are these similar, how are these different? What's the challenge of setting in one population versus the other.
Well, certainly, clear cell is the major histological type of RCC, 75%, 80% of all kidney cancers are clear cell. There's nonclear cell is a mix of different either genetically defined tumor types or histologically defined tumor types. There, it's -- they can be tougher to deal with tougher to actually impact pharmacologically in terms of actual responses and long-term impact clinical benefit.
What has this happened historically is they two travel together from a regulatory point of view. Everybody has a label for advanced RCC. So clear -- non-clear cell just kind of comes along with the right Interestingly, there's never been a randomized pivotal trial in non-clear cell RCC, right? There's been a number of single arm, non-randomized studies. We've done one with cabo and atezo as well as in cabo/nivo. Other people have done them, but no one's ever really invested in looking in terms of bringing the pivotal trial. So level 1 evidence doesn't actually exist.
So we're very excited about the opportunity to be able to generate the appropriate data in a randomized global randomized pivotal trial in what 20-plus-or-minus percent of the population in RCC. And we're able to generate that Level 1 evidence, we think we'd be in a really strong position to be able to then market that drug post approval.
To this point, given the way the labels are actually set up, what proportion -- so all of these patients are essentially being treated by drugs that were tested more in clear cell. so when you look at the non-clear cell opportunity, if 304 ultimately were successful, is the first thing we would do is basically pluck these patients that are being treated with one set of drugs out from prior label to this right out not specific. So it'd have to be treated under something that's more specific.
Yes. Yes. So I think the way to look at it is we would have the evidence in terms of global randomized pivotal trial to show clear benefit. If that was the case in those trials, right? So I think it's a pretty compelling way to then get reimbursed the way to market the drug, having that level 1 evidence, which no one else really has.
Would that allow for premium pricing over the current?
Yes, I wouldn't want to get into that right now. But certainly, we're always thinking about pricing in the IRA, MFN world that we live in. Sure.
And of course, people always speculate when it comes to zanza versus cabo -- let's do it again. They always speculate that one that's essentially trying to take over for the other, but of course initially not really studying overlapping indications, you're saying different.
Yes, exactly.
And so where do you see this ultimately going? I mean obviously, at the beginning, it will be an incremental growth for the whole franchise. But eventually, you want to kind of...
Well, I think the way we look at it, and certainly, this has taken a lot of thought going into how we have designed the pivotal trial program for zanza right? The three initial second three and then the next wave with post adjuvant meningioma, et cetera, to be able to balance the trade-off between building the zanza franchise, but not cannibalizing the cabo franchise at the same time while we have exclusivity. So I think there's been some very careful analysis.
Certainly, I'm not sure even end of the day, we're going to have overlapping indications in terms of, say, indication statements for RCC. We'll see how that plays out at the end of the day. But the way they're kind of just positioned and staged staggered. I would expect if the zanza RCC trials read out and are successful and are launched. They'll be fundamentally different in the late '20s, more importantly, early '30s than what cabo is currently doing today because standard of care will, of course, have evolved.
I mean if we're doing our jobs as a company and as an industry correctly, I would hope standard of care improves over the next 5 years, next 10 years, right? And then as we hit kind of terminal velocity from the standpoint of marketing and sales, it will be past the cabo exclusivity, and we won't have to worry about that. If we cannibalize that, then still won't be a problem. So we're trying to -- looking downstream and again, big error bars, lots of caveats, but we're certainly modeling how this could work over the next decade. But thinking about that very carefully in terms of the nonoverlapping indications doing those quickly and doing those soon and then some of the potential overlapping indications is doing those later when or past the cabo LOE in terms of actually commercializing.
So we got a couple of minutes here, freestyle you're good at freestyle. So what do you want to talk about that -- the Street is missing?
I think it's the -- again, it's the franchise potential of the company. I think that's the goal. The Street is always focused on the minutia and I appreciate that. We spent 2019, we probably have 1,000 buy-side meetings hedge fund meetings talking about how -- asking the question about how we're going to compete in frontline RCC with cabo/nivo -- are we going to get survival? You got survival, are you going to compete with len/pem and axi/pem and nivo and pembro and ipi/nivo blah, blah, blah.
Impossible to answer that question without data. But we were in the spin cycle around that topic for literally a year. Right? Which is just the way it goes, and I appreciate that. That's just the game that we're in. So I'm all about kind of playing that game and be able to navigate those discussions, knowing that there's no answer until you get data and until you see the data and your launch and you see how that goes and then you build that launch over time. So -- but we are absolutely myopically focused about two things.
Everything we do at the end of the day revolves around how we define success and the only definition of success that matters to us is improving, can we improve the standard of care for patients with cancer. That's simple. Any indication in a trial we do, the output has to actually raise the bar because if we don't do that, then the chances of us actually moving the needle for patients and for the company in terms of revenues, is relatively low.
And that's been the cabo story juxtaposed to the 50 or 100 or so molecules that have been approved over the last decade. If you don't move the needle, you're not going to make a difference, and that's what we're focused that and then doing it in a franchise setting in either dimension. Franchise in a molecule franchise in a specific indication, and we got to pick those indications very carefully. So that's it.
Excellent. Thank you very much for. It's always great to have you and chat again soon.
Okay. I hope so. All right. Thank you.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Citi's Biopharma Back to School Conference
Exelixis, Inc. — Citi's Biopharma Back to School Conference
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Exelixis positioniert sich als Franchise-Unternehmen: CABOMETYX (cabozantinib) bleibt Umsatztreiber; Zanzolitinib ("zanza") ist Next‑Gen‑Programm mit kürzerer Halbwertszeit zur besseren Dosissteuerung. NET‑Zulassung (Ende Q1 2025) und Produktlaunch in Q2 unterstreichen weiteres kommerzielles Wachstumspotenzial.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Franchise-Fokus: Ziel ist Multi‑Compound/Multi‑Franchise-Aufbau: aus CABO‑Erfolgen lernen, Zanza und weitere Small Molecules/Biologics sequenziell ausrollen.
- Kommerzielle Stärke: CABO wächst weiter; Erstlinienanteil ~25%, Zweitlinie >45%, Q2'25 vs Q2'24 Marktanteilsgewinn von ~4 Prozentpunkten.
- Indikationsstrategie: Zanza‑Programme bewusst gestaffelt, Head‑and‑Neck abgeblasen (Gate), Priorität auf CRC, non‑clear cell RCC, Meningiom und post‑adjuvante Settings.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Zulassung/Launch: NET‑Indikation zugelassen Ende Q1 2025, Launch Q2 2025; Exelixis sieht adressierbaren oralen‑Therapie‑Markt (~everolimus, sunitinib, CAPTEM) bei ~$1 Mrd.
- Zanza‑Daten: STELLAR‑303 (CRC, 3L+) meldet positive Top‑Line‑Ergebnisse versus Regorafenib (ITT); Präsentation/Publikationsdetails stehen noch aus.
- Timelines: Studie 304 (non‑clear cell RCC) komplett eingeschrieben, erwarteter Readout H1 2026; Studie 305 (H&N) nicht in Phase III fortgeführt.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bewertung: Kurzfristig treibt CABOMETYX Wachstum und Umsatz; mittelfristig ist Zanza der wichtigste Katalysator für zusätzliche Indikationen ohne sofortige Kannibalisierung. Entscheidend bleibt die Datenlieferung (Präsentationen, pivotal Readouts) zur Validierung des Franchisemodells und zur Erschließung des geschätzten NET/CRC‑Markts.
Exelixis, Inc. — Wells Fargo 20th Annual Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
All right, everyone. I think we'll get started here with the first session after lunch time. But my name is Derek Archila. I'm one of the senior biotech analysts here at Wells. Very excited to have Exelixis and with us today, Michael Morrissey, the President and Chief Executive Officer. Thanks for being here.
Great to be here. Thanks again. Beautiful day in Boston. Indeed.
Indeed.
It passed the summer mugginess and heat, just gorgeous here. So -- but thanks again for the invite. You had a great day, just packed one-on-one. So, awesome. Really super.
Well, good to hear that. And maybe just to kind of level set us, kind of just give us the state of the business here in terms of what's going on at Exelixis, and we have obviously plenty of questions to dig into, but maybe just set us up and then we'll move on from there.
For sure. Before I begin, let me just remind you, I'll be making forward-looking statements. So please see our SEC filings for a description of the risks that we face in our business.
So yes, so Exelixis, commercial stage biotech company focused exclusively in oncology. Main value driver immediately is around cabozantinib in its tablet form called COMETRIQ as the leading drug for RCC. Strong commercial performance over the last number of years. I would say the -- certainly, in the kidney cancer space, the most enabling data that we've achieved recently was in the 2020 time frame with the 9ER trial that we did in terms of cabo plus nivo in frontline RCC.
We think that certainly for us, for our business, has certainly revolutionized the reach we have in the kidney cancer space. for the last, I think, 11 or 12 quarters, cabo has been the leading TKI for RCC. We've seen strong growth. We went from about $750 million in 2020 -- in 2019 to -- I think we did $1.8 billion or so last year and factoring towards $2.1 billion plus this year at the midpoint of our guidance.
So really strong performance, great story around how you can take novel insights in terms of kind of mechanistic pharmacology in terms of what drives tumor growth and resistance and convert that into a really game-changing data for patients. So we're super proud of that. The cabo franchise has certainly enabled us to look at how do we build a multi-compound multi-franchise company going forward.
Next compound up is zanzalintinib that is in a variety of pivotal trials. I'm sure we'll talk about that today. First pivotal trial in late-line colorectal cancer, the STELLAR-303 trial, read all positive. So we're super excited about that and moving that downstream.
And then we have a pipeline behind that. So we've got zanza in five either ongoing or about to start pivotal trials and more to come. And then we have a very, very deep pipeline of both small molecules and biologics to be able to, again, meet this aspirational vision for this multi-compound multi-franchise company. That's how you build value for patients. That's how you build value for shareholders, and that's the aspirational goal for the company.
Awesome. Well, maybe let's start with the base business first in terms of like what you're seeing right now with cabo and some of the growth opportunities, particularly within obviously, your in-line indications, but also the recently launched pNET.
Right. So yes, so kidney continues to grow. As we highlighted on the Q2 call a few months ago, we saw a strong performance. So it was 19%, 20% growth year-over-year comparing Q2 '25 to Q2 '24. So strong growth there, again, with tiny price increases based upon kind of the new IRA framework. So really demand driven. I think demand grew 18% in that same time frame. Maybe from a market share point of view, we grew 4 points over that year, so about 1 point a quarter, which years into a launch off of 9ER just really reinforces how we very, very carefully and obviously compliantly, but in a very in-depth fashion, target and educate both existing prescribers and new prescribers around the value that we have in the data. So the cabo story just really reflects that.
We think we have more room to run here. We're never satisfied with where we're at, and we have just phenomenal deep analytics and understanding the marketplace and the market basket as it really applies to any indication and certainly using all that information to target our sales force and our marketing team about how to go about educating and moving the needle for patients and for prescribers. So excited about that.
So the kidney cancer, the base business, if you will, along with thyroid cancer and liver cancer, other indications we have there continues to grow. And then we add net to that, both epNET, extra-pancreatic NET as well as pancreatic NET are both important new indications that were added earlier this year at the end of Q1. Strong data from the CABINET trial in both indications, if you will, since there are individual indications in that trial. And we're super excited to have that approved and now launched in the U.S. And then Ipsen, our partner saw approval of that just at the end of Q1 as well. So we're excited about that, too.
Got you. I guess in terms of like the underlying growth for kind of the non-NET indications? Like how sustainable growth or how sustainable do you think that growth is that you just mentioned in terms of what you're seeing in share gains and all that kind of demand-driven growth?
Yes. So we have 25 plus or minus percent market share in the frontline setting. So there's plenty of room to grow there, right? Overall, I think second line, we're in the 45-or-so percent range, maybe a little bit higher. So we're seeing most patients at some point in time in their journey in kidney cancer. The question is, can we shift the second-line utilization to frontline utilization and then get the stacking that comes with a duration of PFS of 16, 17 months. So that's the goal.
So again, we don't believe that we should be satisfied with where we're at. And if there's a plateau, we think it's many, many quarters out. But our view is to grow market share every day every visit, through every detail that we have and every quarter as we go forward. So how that looks, we'll see. But again, we're very, very committed to continuing to build on that business as we go forward.
Got you. And then just on net, specifically, like how you frame that opportunity? And like in terms of the adoption, I know some people are like, is there going to be a bolus or this? So I guess like how do you feel like that trajectory for that launch will kind of also underpin some growth here in the...
Yes. No, it's a great question. And there's lots of swirl in your world, in the sell-side world in the Q1, Q2 time frame. So let's just kind of level set expectations here. Number one, there's no warehousing of patients. This isn't like hep C. There's -- everybody -- if you have advanced progressive net as a disease. It's an indolent disease, right? And you'll be able to cycle a few therapies, but you're on an active therapy because you have active tumor growth, right?
So what's rate limiting for us right now is really having patients who are -- if they're being well served on their current therapies, that's great. At some point in time, they will progress. And that's rate limiting for them to then have the opportunity to go on to cabo.
So first quarter of launch, first full quarter was second quarter of this year. We had, I thought, a great coming out party market research highlights that we have about a 35% market share within literally a couple of months of launch. So to go from a standing start of zero up to 35% is a great kind of first stake in the ground on that march forward. We also, based on market research, have best-in-class designation in terms of how prescribers view the data we have, the opportunity they have.
So having that early in the launch gives us a lot of momentum. We talked about 4% of our revenue out of the $520 million that we did was related to net. So I can do that math. It's about $20-or-so million. So in terms of a first quarter of launch, where the vast majority of bottles that we're selling are based on new patient starts and getting -- not really having the opportunity for refills, I thought was just a fantastic way to start. You do the math on that. It's actually higher than the 35% market share that we got via our market research. So great start.
Q3 continues to evolve very nicely. I won't go into the numbers right now. Obviously, we're tracking that very closely. excited about that trajectory. And again, the question is just going to be growth, right, and how that -- what that CAGR looks like month-over-month, quarter-over-quarter. And hard to draw a line with one point. So as we go out, we'll be able to see what that looks like. But I'll just remind everybody that, again, the RCC ramp from Q1 2021 to Q2 2025, we've easily almost tripled revenue on that.
So we're confident that this is just one of those opportunities where we just have to grind it out and continue to raise the awareness, educate docs. There's a large prescriber pool. Many of those doctors have used cabo. Everybody we talk to is very excited about the opportunity to use cabo when it's appropriate for their patients. So the question is just when they're available and when they choose to use it. So -- but the team is very strong, and we're looking forward to being able to kind of push that as we go forward.
Got you. I mean are you still -- I think you guys have said in the past that you think cabo peaks out at like $3 billion, I think. So I guess, do you still -- I guess, do you reiterate that? And also, like is it more of a slowing growth for kind of like, let's say, mostly renal with a pickup in kind of driving the net. I guess like we already know we're kind of at like $2.1 billion, like how do we converge to $3 billion.
Yes. Well, I mean, if you do the math, again, this is math I can do to go -- so we gave that aspirational perspective back last year, 2024. To get to there by 2030, you need a 10%, 11% CAGR to be able to get there, right? And certainly, we did that last year easily on RCC alone. And now having that on top of that, again, I feel really good about being able to meet that as we go forward, right?
Got you. Okay. Well, maybe shifting gears to zanza and then we'll go through the broader pipeline. But I mean, obviously, you had the data for third-line colorectal cancer, ITT. I guess what are the next steps here? Obviously, we haven't seen much of the data on our side. So we're waiting you've seen any of the data yet a press release. obviously, like kind of what are the next steps in terms of sharing that data? And also like what's kind of been going on in the background around kind of like regulatory discussions being able to file on ITT before non-liver mets, all that sort of stuff.
So again, top line results were positive. We had that press release at the end of June, winning in the ITT population, which covers liver met patients and non-liver met patients. So in terms of the broadest opportunity both clinically and commercially, winning in ITT is great. The non-liver met population, which was the other dual endpoint, was not mature enough yet to have a, call it, a win. We're close, but it's just a matter of time and events and see how that data looks. So that just continues to chug along based upon events. And it's not surprising that would -- we would accrue events slower there because the prognosis for a non-liver met patient is just so much better than one with a liver met, right?
So the plan is, obviously, we want to get the data out, asap in full form, both in terms of presentations and publications and all that work is in progress. We're just waiting to hear back on things being accepted in some shape, manner or form. From my point of view, sooner the better, gives us certainly a chance to talk about the data in a more fulsome fashion like in opportunities like this, right, as well as get the filing going and move that forward from a regulatory point of view, right?
So we're excited across the board. The recent FDA guidance on survival plays well with us. This is a survival-based study, both in terms of the ITT and the subpopulations, the liver mets, the non-liver mets. So we're in that game to win. It's very important for us to be able to move the needle for patients, and this is really the first stake in the ground in colon cancer.
We talk a lot about franchises, and we think about franchise opportunities in two different ways. Cabo is a franchise molecule by itself because it's active in so many different types of indications, different types of tumors, different combination partners, single agent, doublets, et cetera. You can also think about a franchise in terms of an indication with multiple modalities and multiple opportunities.
And we're doing that with NET. We're doing that with CRC. And I think having the first stake in the ground for CRC with the STELLAR-303 study really reinforces that. We're super excited about moving up in line of therapy, looking at a post-adjuvant setting with zanza as well as kind of a maintenance therapy that we're really excited about. We think it's a prime example now with the 303 data to be able to move in that direction. We have molecules like XB371, so a tissue factor targeting ADC with a topotecan-based warhead that is really designed exclusively to look at top sensitive tumors like CRC. So you can envision that going into that mix, maybe a combination with zanza in terms of how we could dose escalate even in Phase I to understand safety and tolerability and maybe additional activity.
So again, this multidimensional franchise view, we think, is really the way to go in terms of driving value creation for patients and shareholders. Again, the cabo story was really around cabo going up and down indications, but there's other ways to skin that cat that we're very excited about.
I mean is your intent to file just with ITT before the non-liver mets? Or would you have to wait.
Yes. I think the fact that ITT1, that would be the main focus. And it was a dual primary. So we just need to hit on one of those two for sure.
Can you give us or provide some context around like what we should think is like clinically meaningful in that population, very late line. So like what do physicians want to see and ultimately, do you feel that the data will be clear?
Yes, sure. So I won't get into the data. People ask me to guide them on what they think they might want to see. And why don't we just wait a few months and you probably see it and then you can do it for yourself. So we've avoided that commentary because talking around the lines and abstract just is a no win situation. So it's a win.
I'll remind you and the audience, both here and online that there have been 4 other trials recently done in third line plus CRC that have failed, right? Checkpoint-based with or without other approaches. So the fact that this is a clear win relative to what's been seen recently compares nicely with what's out there, too. So I think it will be a big player.
And I think the other point that we've seen from market research time and time again is that cold tumors like CRC that have not had the opportunity to have a checkpoint kind of be available to them is a really important feature here that we shouldn't underestimate, right? We've all heard the stories in terms of how patients as they become more and more aware of the power of a checkpoint approach are very interested in learning more about that. And the same thing is true here, right? So a lot to do.
Let's talk about -- let's get the data out there. We'll talk about it. I'm sure we'll have lots of discussions going forward. But we're thrilled to have a positive trial with the first one with zanza, and we're going to build upon that going forward.
Got you. And I guess as you think about CRC in terms of the stack of indications for zanza, I think you guys have said zanza maybe $5 billion. So is CRC the majority of the chunk of that because now -- or is it even expanded? Like where do you think that?
So as you'll recall from our Q3 2024 slide, where we had that kind of laid out that kind of aspirational view of what success could look like. Of that $5 billion, about 10% was non-GU, non-GI. That was the head and neck opportunity as we saw it, that was being studied in 305. And the other remaining 90% was split more or less equally between GU and GI. So GI in that parlance was CRC and NET and then GU.
So was that only assuming non-liver mets? Like does that change with the IT?
Yes, we didn't go into that level of detail. So stay tuned on that. But I would say at a rough approximation, it's a reasonable approximation for what that population could do. And then on the GU side, that's -- those are the three kidney cancer trials, the one that we're doing with 304 and then the two Merck studies.
Got you. So maybe -- yes, that's a good pivot to kidney for zanza. I guess can you just kind of elaborate more on your strategy relative to what you've done with cabo there? And I guess there's always folks kind of asking like is it really differentiated versus cabo in renal? So maybe you can walk us through and why you think so? And I guess how you think that will commercially play out?
Yes. So differentiation ultimately is derived in a label, right? And the label is specific to an indication. So again, we're -- in terms of what we're doing in kidney cancer, we're looking ahead and asking the question, what could standard of care be in the late 20s, early 30s that would allow us to maintain our leadership position in that indication as the torch is passed from cabo to zanza, right? I think that's the appropriate way to look at it.
Now we haven't gone into detail per agreement with our collaborator here on the actual kind of details around the two trials we're doing with belzutifan. That will come later. So stay tuned on that. But I think the overall approach is we will define, if we're successful, new standard of care, and we'll have a new way of looking at how to treat kidney cancer in the 2030s with zanza as opposed to how we're doing it with cabo in the 2020s.
So it's not so much a matter of what's happening today, but what will happen in the future. And that future will be enabled by whatever data we get and whatever labels we're able to achieve because the idea of substituting with a combination partner that doesn't exist with the other one is really hard to imagine. Got you.
So I guess, do you think that like going forward, would you have to like -- would people step through the cabo like generic to go to like zanza?
Well, I don't -- again, I wouldn't want to predict that far advance. But I think the reality is if the standard of care has changed enough where potentially cabo wouldn't even be a player by then, right, in terms of how that overall -- the sequence of options plays out going forward, right?
So don't -- I mean, I think it's -- I guess it can be challenging to look at what standard of care today and then what's going to be standard of care 5 years from now, 10 years from now, right? Those -- if we're doing our jobs well individually and a community of drug discoverers and developers, it has to change. If it doesn't change, we're missing something in a pretty important way.
And that's -- I mean, look, I mean, that's the case with NET, right? There hasn't been a new drug approved in NET for a decade, shame on us, right? Colon cancer, again, it's been tough, right? The biology is hard. Pharmacology is challenging. New mechanisms. This is a high attrition business. But I think we're in the game to push the envelope scientifically and to really balance that risk reward from the point of view of building a franchise across different modalities.
And I think the cabo story is actually very instructive, right? Of the seven or so indications that we've got approved, there's only a couple of big commercial winners. So it's really -- it's hard prospectively when you're designing a pivotal trial to say, this is going to work like this, and it's going to give you this kind of readouts in revenues. You got to run the experiment. It's all experimental. You just have to do enough in parallel so that the big winners can emerge and then drive your growth.
Maybe you can just talk about your non-zanza pipeline and kind of get people a little bit more situated on that. I know for a couple of years, there was not a lot of visibility. You guys have given a lot more visibility in terms of like what you're working on ultimately against some of these potential combos. So maybe just walk us through what you're most excited about.
Yes, sure. Well, I would say the whole pipeline has really matured nicely. I'm super excited about how quickly things are evolving from the standpoint of concepts to molecules to the right level of validation preclinically from an efficacy and safety point of view and then rapid evaluation in early-stage development to get to the point where we can pick the winners.
Again, as I've said on the last few calls, the goal here is not to build a big pipeline. Goal here is to find the winners that we can rapidly advance into late-stage development that can become a franchise driver going forward, right?
So size is just playing a numbers game and to a certain degree, addressing our challenges in connecting the dots from the right tumor biology pathway analysis, genetic genomic analysis into the right modality into clinically meaningful data that helps patients live longer and recover stronger, right? That's what it's all about. So the pipeline mix of small molecules and biologics. We talked about 371. That's now in the clinic. We've dosed our first patient there recently. Really excited about that.
We like using a targeted approach with a very potent Tecan-based -- topotecan-based warhead has real clear targets in terms of tumor types that are sensitive to Tecans, right? So kind of a no-brainer. That one is, again, it's built to be combined and its overall at least preclinical stability, safety, certainly, activity is outstanding. So again, we got to get into man, ask the right question and the right species and get some data and understand kind of how fast that can go forward. But the opportunity to combine that with zanza, we think, is really exciting, yes, for sure.
But later, more advanced, our USP1 inhibitor, XL309 is a molecule that it's in a class that has seen some pretty serious attrition over the last couple of years. Most of the competition there has kind of fallen by the wayside for either PK reasons or tox reasons or lack of efficacy reasons. We think we have a good view on dose, on regimen, both as monotherapy and as a combination partner with PARPs and have a good sense in terms of how to navigate both the PARP genomic space, but also the HRD-positive genomic space down to a number of specific mutations that might appear to be sensitive there.
So still early days, but I think we're getting into a point where we can start asking some key go/no-go questions. And again, if it's going to rise up and say, I'm active, develop me, we're going to see that over the next period of time. And that's really exciting. That transition from -- could be interesting to, oh my gosh, it's going to be great or let's just stop now because kind of losses and move on. Those kinds of binary decisions are what were made kind of how we're built to be able to interrogate these new molecules and these new MOAs as we go forward.
Yes. I was going to say like one of the flexibilities, I think, of your platform is your ability to do a variety of different modalities. I mean, can you maybe just speak to that in terms of like where you think you want to be, whether it be small molecule ADC, other types of modalities, degraders, like where do you think the platform is headed in the next five years?
Yes. I would say the platform -- we are -- and I certainly am. I mean, I'm an discovery guy, right, medicinal chemist, et cetera. We are modality agnostic. We are p-value specific, right? The modality, as long as we can put it in a bottle and get it to patients easily, we can manufacturing, obviously, is a big part of the story.
Yes, I want to match the right molecule with the right target in the right tumor type with or without the right combination partner and change the trajectory for patients, improve standard of care.
Because, again, the cabo experience over the last decade has taught us that if we can improve standard of care for patients, we move the needle for them, we can generate outsized revenue for our shareholders, and we can build value in the company. That's the key. It's improving standard of care. Beyond that, nothing else really matters, okay? So we have a myopic focus on that. Everything is around execution is built to make sure that we get that data fast. We're going to win some. We're going to lose some. Some of the ones that we win, we might not actually be able to monetize. You think about thyroid, certainly important indications for those patients, but hasn't been a big driver for us commercially. That's okay. We have to just be in that game and ask the right question.
So again, all modalities are on the table. We've got a very strong discovery team. Our manufacturing group is best-in-class. If you think about the pressure of being a single molecule company and what that group has to do day in and day out to make sure that we never kind of go down the wrong path. It's just fantastic, both small molecules and biologics. So a lot of juice there, a lot of momentum there. But again, we're looking for the data to tell us follow path A, follow path B, don't follow path C. And that's all we're focused on in a very myopic fashion.
I mean do you feel like it's mostly just internal looking in terms of the R&D and pipeline development versus external? Or do you like -- do you want to do both just to...
Well, I mean, again, our pipeline is built on the foundation of internal work, but also externalization, too. So most of our ADC technologies came from the outside. We didn't invent those. We understood the appropriateness, maybe the optimization of some of those technologies, bought those in-house, applied those, did a lot of work on the manufacturing side to make them at scale and then those molecules are now in the clinic. XL309, we in-licensed from Insilico, a company out of China, and I guess, Wilmington.
So again, we've got a pretty broad reach. And there's more that we've done and that we're doing. So it's -- again, we're very agnostic. I don't care where the assets come from as long as they're high quality, and we can feel good about the path they have towards moving up into the clinic and moving through the clinic certain gates that allow us to make more investments. So it's all about doing both well.
Now in terms of current BD, our early-stage pipeline is pretty deep. So we're not looking for another IND candidate, another preclinical candidate, another Phase I asset. We've got a lot of those, right? If there's late-stage, kind of mid-stage, late-stage assets in GU GI that we think are attractive, that's really kind of in our sweet spot. But as I've said before, we've burned many haystacks looking for those, and we've got a few needles that we're interested in. So we'll see. We'll see how those things play out, right?
Got you. Maybe not so interesting for a drug discovery guy, but like I wanted to ask about like the balance between share repurchases and doing more share repo versus as you kind of think about more and broadening out the pipeline, more zanza, more early stage, like I think one of the things that was interesting was, yes, a couple of years ago, you started doing share repurchase, got all this cash flow. But is there any time where you pivot to a more focus on R&D and really to accelerate kind of the next stage post cabo?
Yes. Look, it's super important. Again, this is a super important point. I laugh because we're constantly asked that question. And the reality is it's great to have the option to be able to allocate cash because you've got cash to allocate, right? Most biotech companies kind of at our stage don't have that, right? So yes, so we've committed to keeping our R&D spend at about $1 billion a year, which means that we have to prioritize.
I would love to be in a scenario where I have to stop the development on three early-stage compounds because we've got two super-hot mid-stage compounds that are going into full development. That's where the action is at. Those are easy decisions to make from the standpoint of building value for patients and shareholders.
So we're constant at that $1 billion mark within R&D. SG&A is pretty stable. We might add a little bit more on the commercial side as we add new indications and kind of build that out, whether it be for zanza or something else, obviously, you have to scale the business there to be able to maximize our chance of success commercially. So -- but that's good investment to make in terms of how you see that business evolving.
But if we're managing the P&L properly, and I think we do, and Chris and I and the whole FP&A team and the whole executive team really focus on that. If revenues keep growing, then we have the optionality to allocate cash appropriately. And I think doing the buybacks makes a lot of sense. certainly strengthens the stock. We bought about $1.8 billion of shares back over the last couple of years. And we think that will continue based upon kind of our revenue trajectory and the expense oversight and management that we're so good at, right?
We prioritize. And if you go back to the early days, we were very, very ruthless in terms of how we prioritize when we were running out of money in 2014. It was the cabo-only story. It's a renal-only story. So we have that in our basic DNA, and we have more fuel to play with right now, and that's great. But we're very committed to allocating capital that will have the most impact on patients.
And on shareholders because those two travel together. If you're not going to move the needle for patients, then you're going to have a hard time building value for shareholders. So buybacks make sense. We think that will continue going forward. Revenues grow, we can do even more of that potentially as we go forward, too.
I just -- at the point where cabo kind of comes off and zanza is ramping, I guess, is there a period of like, I don't know, squirliness of revenue growth? Or do you think you can grow through that? And I guess, like what would be the main driver to kind of grow through that?
Yes. So the goal -- look, I think the way we've got it planned out and projected, if the transition -- the transition from cabo to zanza should start before cabo goes off patent in the 2030, '31 time frame. And if we're successful in our development plans for zanza, then that cliff could be a pothole, basically, right, in terms of vectoring towards the mid-30s with zanza, other pipeline molecules evolving quickly.
So again, it's truly forward-looking. So there's lots of moving pieces there. So I don't want to understate the risks and the upside there because the trials have to work. We have to be -- you have to execute well commercially, blah, blah, blah. But the whole goal here is to build value.
And again, I've said this before publicly, I don't -- I and others, we don't think in a linear fashion. We think in a long fashion. I want to see a 10x improvement in the number of patients that we treat. And that -- if we're able to meet that aspirational goal, then I would expect value to grow in that same manner, right, because the 2 are tied together, right? So yes, it's all part and parcel with having the right people, the right team, the right energy and focus and intensity to make everyday account, and that's Exelixis.
Got you. Well, we'll leave it there. Michael, thank you very much.
Thank you. All right.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Wells Fargo 20th Annual Healthcare Conference 2025
Exelixis, Inc. — Wells Fargo 20th Annual Healthcare Conference 2025
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Exelixis bleibt ein kommerzielles Onkologieunternehmen mit starker Ertragsquelle aus Cabozantinib (cabo) in Nierenzellkarzinom. Management hebt positive STELLAR‑303 Topline für Zanzalintinib (Zanza) in 3L Kolorektalkarzinom (ITT) sowie frühe erfolgreiche Launch‑Signale in pNET/eNET hervor. Ziel ist Aufbau einer Multi‑Franchise‑Struktur statt Abhängigkeit von einem Molekül.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Kommerziell: Cabo weist anhaltendes Wachstum und Marktanteilsgewinne (frontline ~25%, second line ~45%); Launch pNET zeigte ~35% Share sehr früh und trug ~4% des Quartalsumsatzes (~$20M) bei.
- Zanza‑Strategie: STELLAR‑303 ITT positiv; Ziel ist Einreichung basierend auf ITT, Ausbau in CRC und multiple kidney‑Programme, später Aufstieg in earlier‑line/Adjuvanz möglich.
- Pipeline & R&D: Modality‑agnostischer Ansatz (Small‑Molecule, ADCs, Biologics); XB371 (TF‑ADC) erste Patientendosis erfolgt; XL309 (USP1‑Inhibitor) in früher Entwicklung; R&D‑Budgetziel ≈ $1 Mrd/Jahr.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Studienupdate: STELLAR‑303 Topline: positiver ITT‑Primärendpunkt; Non‑liver‑Mets‑Cohorte noch nicht ausreichend maturiert.
- Kommerz: Erstes vollen Quartal pNET → ~35% Share; pNET trug ca. $20M zum Quartal ($520M Umsatz) bei.
- Sonstiges: XB371 klinisch dosiert; bisherige Aktienrückkäufe ≈ $1.8 Mrd; Management plant weiterhin Buybacks bei gleichzeitiger R&D‑Priorisierung.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Wachstum Nachhaltig?: Analysten hinterfragten Nachhaltigkeit des cabo‑Wachstums; Management nennt weiteres Marktpotenzial, aber keine detaillierten Pro‑Forma‑Prognosen.
- Zanza‑Einreichung: Nachfrage, ob Zanza auf ITT zuerst eingereicht wird – Management bestätigt Fokus auf ITT; konkrete Wirksamkeitszahlen wurden zurückgehalten bis zur vollständigen Datenpräsentation.
- Kommerzielle Sequenz: Fragen zur Ablösung von cabo durch zanza und zu „Revenue‑Cliff“; Management sieht Übergang vor Patentende und betont Ausführung und Trial‑Risiken.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Positiver STELLAR‑303 Topline‑Release plus vielversprechender pNET‑Start erhöhen Exelixis' Chance, vom Cabo‑Erfolg zu einem Multi‑Franchise‑Unternehmen zu wachsen. Entscheidend sind nun vollständige Datenveröffentlichung, regulatorische Gespräche zur ITT‑Einreichung und die kommerzielle Execution beim NET‑Rollout; finanzielle Optionalität bleibt aufgrund stabiler Umsätze und fortgesetzter Buybacks erhalten.
Exelixis, Inc. — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Exelixis Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. My name is Towanda, and I'll be your operator for today. As a reminder, this call is being recorded for replay purposes.
I would now like to turn the call over to your host for today, Ms. Susan Hubbard, Executive Vice President of Public Affairs and Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Thank you, Towanda, and thank you all for joining us for the Exelixis Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining me on today's call are Mike Morrissey, our President and CEO; Chris Senner, our Chief Financial Officer; P.J. Haley, our Executive Vice President of Commercial; Amy Peterson, our Chief Medical Officer; and Dana Aftab, our Chief Scientific Officer, who will review our progress for the second quarter 2025 ended June 30, 2025.
During the call today, we will refer to financial measures not calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles. Please refer to today's press release, which is posted on our website for an explanation of our reasons for using such non-GAAP measures as well as tables deriving these measures from our GAAP results.
During the course of this presentation, we will be making forward-looking statements regarding future events and the future performance of the company. This includes statements about possible developments regarding discovery, product development, regulatory, commercial, financial and strategic matters, potential growth opportunities and government drug pricing policies and initiatives. Actual events or results could, of course, differ materially. We refer you to the documents we file from time to time with the SEC, which, under the heading Risk Factors, identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed by the company verbally and in writing today, including, without limitation, risks and uncertainties related to product commercial success, market competition, regulatory review and approval processes, conducting clinical trials, compliance with applicable regulatory requirements, our dependence on collaboration partners and the level of cost associated with discovery, product development, business development and commercialization activities.
And with that, I will turn the call over to Mike.
All right. Thank you, Susan, and thanks to everyone for joining us on the call today. Exelixis had a strong second quarter, accelerating our progress and building momentum across all components of our business. driving growth of the cabozantinib franchise, now catalyzed by the early stage of a successful net launch is our top priority, while we execute on our R&D strategy to build a multi-compound multi-franchise oncology business. All corporate activities are aligned on a single focus to improve the standard of care for patients with cancer. The magnitude of our future success will be determined by increasing the number of cancer patients we seek to serve and ultimately, the impact we have on their disease. The current and future Exelixis medicines. By driving for success across all components of our business, we hope to solidify our leadership in oncology drug discovery, development and commercialization intensity, innovation and collaboration.
Key highlights for the second quarter include: first, the robust performance of the cabozantinib U.S. business with strong growth in demand and revenue from our commercial activities. Cabozantinib continues to build on its leadership position as the leading TKI for RCC. Second quarter 2025, U.S. cabo franchise net product revenues grew 19% year-over-year to $520 million compared to $438 million in the second quarter of 2024. Cabo second quarter growth is noteworthy as it relates solely to commercial demand with negligible benefit from clinical trial sales and significant gross to net headwinds. Importantly, we saw brisk full quarter sales for the recently approved net indications and already built a leading share in the oral second-line plus net segment. which contributed to approximately 4% of our second quarter 2025 net product revenue. P.J. will provide more information and commentary about our second quarter franchise performance and encouraging dynamics of the net launch in his prepared remarks.
And just last Thursday, our partner, Ipsen received approval for NETs from the European Commission and revenues from this important new indication as it rolls out across Europe, will add to our royalty stream. We will continue to evaluate further updates to our 2025 financial guidance as we build momentum on the net launch and gain further clarity on additional revenue opportunities for the second half of 2025.
Second, as outlined previously, vandetanib is rapidly advancing as our next oncology franchise opportunity and the subject of numerous ongoing and soon to start pivotal trials. We're pleased with the positive top line results from STELLAR-303 and CRC and look forward to engaging with regulators with the intent of filing for approval in this indication as quickly as possible. STELLAR-304 in non-clear cell RCC is fully enrolled and continues to progress with top line results expected in the first half of 2026 ending event rates.
Based on evaluation of the data from STELLAR-305 in head and neck cancer and the competition in this indication, we made the decision to not advance this trial into Phase III. This decision was further supported by our assessment of the commercial opportunity of new zanza indications on the horizon that we believe have a higher probability of success little to no competition and potentially an approximate threefold commercial value and the STELLAR-305 opportunity.
As we've highlighted previously, we stand ready to make tough decisive capital allocation decisions based on clinical and competitive data and in-depth financial analysis. We're doing it now to STELLAR-305, and you can expect the same level of rigor for us and all in the future across all components of the business. We continue to prioritize existing and new zanza indications as the most promising path to a second Exelixis oncology franchise that we believe can eclipse the size, scope and impact of our cabozantinib franchise.
Third, the Exelixis early-stage pipeline is advancing quickly with a range of new and potentially differentiated biologics and small molecule heading into and through early clinical evaluation. As I highlighted last quarter, we're not looking to just build a big pipeline, but carefully and quickly identify the winners for advancement into full development as top investment priorities. Early evaluation of XL 309 and XPO1 continue to advance quickly, and we're pleased to have the bispecific XB628 and our second-generation tissue factor targeting ADC XB371 moving into the clinic.
Finally, we remain committed to carefully managing capital allocation while we advance our R&D and commercial priorities. Our balance sheet and expected free cash flow provide us with the opportunity to advance our pipeline priorities, access new high conviction assets and continue to repurchase shares when we believe they are undervalued. Business development activities continue in earnest, and we're focused on doing the right deals for the right assets at the right valuations.
So with that, please see our press release issued an hour ago for our second quarter 2025 financial results and an extensive list of key corporate milestones achieved in the quarter.
And I'll now turn the call over to Chris.
Thanks, Mike. For the second quarter of 2025. The company reported total revenues of approximately $568 million, which included cabozantinib franchise net product revenues of $520 million. CABOMETYX net product revenues were $518 million and included approximately $600,000 in clinical trial sales, which is significantly lower than the $12 million of clinical trial sales we had in the first quarter of 2025. As a continued reminder, clinical trial sales have historically been choppy between quarters, and we expect this to continue into the future. Gross to net cabozantinib franchise in the second quarter of 2025 was 30.2% which is higher than the gross to net we experienced in the first quarter of 2025. This increase in gross to net deductions in the second quarter of 2025 is primarily related to higher 340B volume in the quarter.
Over the past several quarters, we have experienced a continued increase in the percentage of our business that is related to 340B volume, which is now over 24% of our total volume which when compared to the second quarter of 2024 is 4 percentage points higher.
Grade inventory at the end of the second quarter of 2025 was approximately 2.2 weeks on hand, which was higher when compared to the first quarter 2025. The increase in trade inventory we -- in was partially due to the timing of the July 4 holiday week, which had lower volume than the preceding 4 weeks. Total revenues also included approximately $48.2 million in collaboration revenues which includes approximately $43.4 million in royalties earned from our partners Ipsen and Takeda on their sales of cabozantinib in their respective territories.
Our total operating expenses for the second quarter of 2025 a $355 million compared to $369 million in the first quarter of 2025. The sequential decline in these operating expenses was primarily driven by lower manufacturing cost for drug development candidates, lower clinical trial costs and lower general and administrative costs. Provision for income taxes for the second quarter of 2025 was approximately $45.6 million compared with a provision for income taxes of approximately $46.1 million for the first quarter of 2025. Additionally, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was signed into law on July 4, 2025, which, among other provisions, permanently repeals the requirement to capitalize domestic R&D expenses. For federal income tax purposes for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2024, and allows for the accelerated deduction of any remaining unamortized domestic R&D expenditures. Foreign R&D expenditures are still required to be capitalized and amortized ratably over 15 years. The federal tax cash tax benefit for previously unamortized domestic R&D expenditures is estimated at $147 million with no corresponding impact to the federal income tax provision.
The company reported GAAP net income of approximately $184.8 million or $0.68 per share basic and $0.65 per share diluted for the second quarter of 2025. The company also reported non-GAAP net income of approximately $212.6 million or $0.78 per share basic and $0.75 per share diluted. Non-GAAP net income excludes the impact of approximately $28 million of stock-based compensation expense net of the related income tax effect. Cash and marketable securities for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, were approximately $1.4 billion.
During the second quarter of 2025, we repurchased approximately $302 million of the company's shares, resulting in the retirement of approximately $7.5 million of the company's shares at an average price per share of $40.10. As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, we had approximately $204 million remaining under the $500 million stock repurchase plan authorized by the company's Board in February 2025. And finally, we will continue to evaluate further updates to our 2025 financial guidance as we build momentum on the net launch and gain further clarity on additional revenue opportunities for the second half of 2025. We are reiterating our full year 2025 financial guidance, which is detailed on Slide 14 of our earnings presentation.
And with that, I'll turn the call over to P.J.
Thank you, Chris. The CABOMETYX business was very strong in the second quarter of 2025. And importantly, the launch in neuroendocrine tumors is off to a great start. Cabo continued to show growth in terms of revenue, demand and new patient starts and notably perform well relative to the competition. The team continued to execute at an extremely high level with CABOMETYX continuing to be the #1 prescribed TKI in renal cell carcinoma as well as the #1 TKI plus IO combination in first-line RCC. The commercial team is delivering on the launch in Nets with great urgency with the goal to rapidly establish CABOMETYX as a small molecule market leader in the NET space. We are pleased that prescribers are responding positively to the data and are excited to have a new therapy available to unmet need in neuroendocrine tumors. As we look to build on the strong momentum of the CABOMETYX business.
The prescription data in the oral TKI market basket of cabo, lenvatinib, axitinib, sunitinib and pazopanib can may the strength of cabo relative to the competition. Looking at the TRx comparison of Q2 2024 to Q2 2025 and CABOMETYX grew 4 share points from 41% to 45%. CABOMETYX TRx volume grew 18% in this time period, outpacing the growth rate of the market by 10 percentage points. Importantly, CABOMETYX RCC business remains strong and continues to grow. The new indications for previously treated nets are providing our experienced sales team great access to customers. We're able to discuss both the CABINET data as well as the RCC CheckMate 9ER 5-year follow-up data with relevant physicians. These 9ER data presented at GU ASCO in February, resonate with prescribers in the RCC base and help our team continue to drive differentiation from the competition in the first-line RCC market.
Turning to neuroendocrine tumors. We are thrilled that the launch is off to such a strong start. Team has been working tirelessly to execute tactics across channels and customer segments since approval, including personal promotion, targeted nonpersonal digital and social media tactics, peer-to-peer education, a comprehensive patient support program as well as patient and allied health care professional education.
Team is working to rapidly establish CABOMETYX as a new standard of care in second line plus net patients. Our market research and feedback from customers demonstrate the prescribers excited for a new treatment option for their neuroendocrine tumor patients. The first broadly applicable new oral small molecule therapy in 9 years. Physicians are responding favorably to the broad net label in the contemporary trial design and perceive the efficacy and tolerability of the cabo data is favorable relative to other small molecule therapies in the space. Prescribers envision using cabo broadly across patient and tumor characteristics, including patients with neuroendocrine tumors arising in the pancreas, [ P.I. tract ] and lung, across all tumor grades, functional and SSTR status and those who have received prior treatment with Lutathera. As we look at early utilization in our market research, we are pleased to see the positive perception data from prescribers. We're seeing rapid uptake of CABOMETYX both second and third line NETs across all the relevant patient and tumor characteristics. Encouragingly, this uptake is similar in both academic and community settings. The launch in Nets is both expanding our prescriber base and increasing prescriptions for legacy cabo prescribers.
Turning to the new patient market share for second line plus neuroendocrine tumors in Q2. We are pleased that CABOMETYX has rapidly become the market leader in the segment with approximately 35% new patient share for oral therapies. This share is very encouraging, so early in the launch, as CABOMETYX was approved on March '26. Hence, we believe that new patient share should continue to increase, and importantly, patients will have the opportunity to benefit from being prescribed this therapy.
Over time, as more patients start therapy with cabo and receive refills, we believe demand will continue to increase. Neuroendocrine demand contributed just over 4% and total demand for cabo in Q2, and we expect that contribution to increase going forward.
Finally, the second quarter market research indicated that CABOMETYX was viewed as the best-in-class oral therapy in neuroendocrine tumors. We are pleased that this perception was achieved so rapidly after the approval. This perception is typically a leading indicator of prescribing behavior gives us confidence that CABOMETYX new patient market share will continue to increase in coming quarters. This research finding aligns well with the anecdotal feedback our experienced sales team is receiving from their customers, many of whom are saying they will prescribe cabo for their net patients once they progress and need a different systemic therapy.
Taken together, the data and customer feedback give us a high degree of confidence in the growth of CABOMETYX in neuroendocrine tumors. As this can be a more indolent tumor type, new patient starts for cabo are governed by patients progressing on their current therapy.
In closing, we are excited by this opportunity to serve net patients. and our enthusiasm is matched by physicians excitement to have a new and effective option for their patients. In general, prescribers see CABOMETYX is a more favorable choice versus other previously approved small molecule therapies. Additionally, the competition in the oral segment of the net market are generic therapies, which puts CABOMETYX at a significant advantage with a full commercial organization energized to support the launch. All of this taken together drives our conviction that the net market will be a substantial opportunity for the CABOMETYX business.
And with that, I will turn the call over to Amy.
Thanks, P.J. Starting first with STELLAR-303. On June 22, we announced positive top line results in which the combination of zanzalintinib plus atezolizumab demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in overall survival versus regorafenib in the intent-to-treat or ITT population. As a reminder, STELLAR-303 is our Phase III study comparing zanzalintinib plus atezolizumab 2 [ rideratenib ] in patients who have received multiple prior therapies for their advanced colorectal cancer.
The trial has dual primary end points designed to assess survival outcomes more broadly in the ITT population and more specifically, in the population of patients without liver metastases referred to as NLM Secondary endpoints of STELLAR-303 include progression-free survival in the ITT and NLM subgroup of patients as well as overall survival and progression-free survival in the subgroup of patients with liver metastases. These top line results represent the final OS analysis in the ITT and the trial will proceed to the planned final analysis of the other dual primary endpoint of OS in the NLM patient population, the timing of which is event driven.
It's worth highlighting that this is the first IO TKI combination to show a statistically significant survival benefit in a broad population and against an active standard of care control arm. We plan to discuss these positive data with regulators with the intention to file a new drug application. We also look forward to sharing these results at an upcoming medical conference and we'll be more specific when abstract titles become available. STELLAR-304 is our pivotal study evaluating the combination of zanzalintinib plus nivolumab versus sunitinib in patients who have not yet received systemic therapy for their locally advanced or metastatic non-clear cell RCC. Based on the current event rate, we are now anticipating top line results in the first half of 2026.
So let's go next to STELLAR-305. Our Phase II/III study comparing zanzalintinib plus pembrolizumab to placebo plus pembrolizumab in patients who have not yet received systemic treatment for their advanced PD-L1 expressing squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck. As Mike said in his opening remarks, we have made the decision not to proceed into the Phase III portion of the trial and are in the process of study closeout. We will share data at a future time and are shifting our focus into new development opportunities for zanzalintinib. Speaking of which, I'd like to now turn to our first pivotal trial evaluating zanzalintinib as monotherapy. I'm pleased to announce the initiation of STELLAR-311, which will compare zanzalintinib to evorolimus as a first oral therapy in patients with neuroendocrine tumors. We're also excited about the recent initiation of the zanzalintinib plus belzutifan cohorts in the Phase II umbrella study being conducted by Merck.
In this study, the combination of belzutifan plus zanzalintinib is being tested in patients with previously treated metastatic cancel carcinoma. Progress also continues with regard to the 2 pivotal studies that Merck is running in clear cell carcinoma evaluating zanzalintinib in combination with belzutifan and we anticipate these studies could start towards the end of 2025.
As we think about the aforementioned studies representing wave 1 in the zanzalintinib development program, I want to convey that we are moving full steam ahead into Wave 2 pivotal trial planning to continue building on the franchise. In light of the positive data from STELLAR-303 in metastatic colorectal cancer, we are considering how best to zanzalintinib earlier into the CRC treatment landscape. We're specifically investigating the post-adjuvant setting where patients have received mammal care with surgery and in many cases, chemotherapy, yet still have a high risk of recurrence. These patients have nothing else available to them.
The only option available being frequent scanning and basically entering a watch and wait period until a distant or local recurrence is found at which point they are mostly rendered incurable given the profile of zanzalintinib and its ability to inhibit targets like MET and VEGF well known for their role in metastatic spread and local establishment of tumor growth, we believe there is reasonable probability that treatment with zanzalintinib could lower these patients' risks of recurrence, improving disease-free survival and unmet need in this setting.
There's also interesting data coming out of an IST investigating cabozantinib in patients with high-grade and/or recurrent meningiomas, were the only treatment options are surgery and radiation. Given their central location, neither of these modalities are considered optimal salvage modalities, offering patients an oral agent like zanzalintinib that could impair further growth and potentially reduce tumor size could represent a breakthrough in the treatment paradigm. We will continue to assess the landscape to consider other areas where [ zanzalintinib ] could be developed, leveraging data from our cabozantinib experience as well as emerging data from our ongoing clinical trials. I look forward to sharing more details of these important opportunities that we believe could enhance the reach of zanzalintinib and we are closer to launching those studies.
I'll now turn the call over to Dana.
Thanks, Amy, and good afternoon, everyone. Today, I'm giving a brief update on our recent progress regarding the early clinical compounds in our pipeline, new IND filings and advancing new compounds to development candidate status. Regarding the early clinical pipeline, our most advanced molecules in this space are XL309, our selective inhibitor of USP1 and XB010, our 5T4 targeting antibody drug conjugate. Both of which have first-in-class potential. The Phase I studies for both compounds have been progressing well. And importantly, in patients, both compounds have achieved exposures that are associated with efficacy in preclinical human tumor xenograft models in mice. We've also made good progress in the Phase I study for XB628, our bispecific antibody targeting PD-L1 and NKG2A.
Despite filing the IND for XB628 so recently, we have already seen brisk enrollment in this Phase I trial, reflecting a high degree of enthusiasm at the clinical sites for this novel molecule. On the I&D front, in the second quarter, we filed our second IND this year, which is for XB371, our tissue factor targeting ADC that carries the topoisomerase inhibitor payload. XB371 has a nominal drug-to-antibody ratio, or DAR, of 8, and utilizes -- smart tech technology that employs a site-specific conjugation of the linker payload to the antibody which, among other benefits, increases control over the DAR species during manufacturing.
The technology also takes a belt and suspenders approach to prevent inappropriate payload release outside of the tumor by utilizing a dual tandem privilege mechanism that occurs inside the tumor cells, first [ biglucaronida ] enzyme, which then exposes a protease site for the ultimate release of the free payload from the antibody. Our presentation at AACR this year showed deep and durable regressions of human colorectal, lung and pancreatic xenograft tumors in mice after a single dose of XB371. A underscoring the significant potential for this molecule to address unmet need. So the team is excited to now be focused on enrolling the Phase I clinical trial for this molecule. In terms of new development candidates, we are continuing to advance exciting new programs, including some innovative small molecules and antibody drug conjugates and I look forward to sharing more details about those programs at the R&D Day event mining for later this year.
So with that, I'll turn the call back over to Mike.
All right. Thanks, Dana. We'll wrap up here with a big thank you to the Exelixis team for helping make our second quarter so successful. As you've heard me say previously, we work in a tough business, and I'm pleased to see our resilience and drive as we progress important projects across our discovery, development and commercial activities in the first half of 2025.
As we said last quarter, we're never satisfied or content with the status quo and look to improve our efficiency and performance on a daily basis. as we make every hour count to excel on our mission to help cancer patients recover stronger and live longer. We look forward to updating you on our progress in the future.
Thank you for your continued support and interest in Exelixis, and we're happy to now open the call for questions.
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of David Lebowitz with Citi.
2. Question Answer
I know it's early, and we haven't really seen the data yet, but any particular takeaways that we have from head and next that can be extrapolated or not extrapolated to future studies?
Yes. Thanks for the question. So let me just back up a second and remind everybody is zanzalintinib is a franchise molecule and there's much more to be done than what we have contemplated in the initial 6 pivotal trials that we've been discussing. Rigorous drug development requires continuous assessments of internally and externally emerging data, and we have multiple areas to continue developing in. We're not going to share any of the data at this point in time, but we will share it with you when -- at a future point.
[Operator Instructions]. Sean Laaman with Morgan Stanley.
Just thinking a little bit longer term, the $3 billion peak revenue guidance for Cabo, it looks like, I think looking at guidance for this year, probably do around about 2.1 ex-NET and other revenue opportunities. Just looking at the market share gains you had, I'm just wondering sort of how enduring do you think such share gains can be? And the second part would be, do you think you can achieve the same market share in NET is what you've seen in RCC.
Why don't I start with that, and I'll pass it off to P.J. for some commentary. So we have built a very strong franchise with Cabo over the years seeing consistent growth in market share and revenue. First, in the RCC realm what we've been focused primarily with 9ER and then having that data propel us forward over the last 4 or 5 years of market share growth. I think as P.J. mentioned, year-over-year, Q2 '24 to Q2 '25, we saw 4 points of market share growth well into the launch, which underscores our ability to commercialize and generate at least talk about new data from existing trials that help us frame the opportunity for patients. And we think we can do exactly the same thing in the NET space.
So again, we have 1 quarter behind us now with NET 35% market share is a great place to start. Best-in-class in the oral therapy is a great place to start both with them literally months of launching the drug post-approval. So early days, we're very excited. As you I'm sure you're aware, Sean, first quarter is usually the NPS quarter where new patients come on and you start to stack with refills later as you're growing NPS. So we're very excited, and I think very confident that we can continue to drive the business forward by growing the base business driven by RCC and then this net opportunity, which we think is large and substantial going forward. P.J., any comments?
Yes. I mean thanks, Mike. Slight color maybe on the net launch beyond that. As I said, we're certainly pleased with RCC. That continues to grow. But in terms of net, very early innings. We really are excited by the 35% share growth in the second line plus oral market. That's just really strong for the first few months of launch. And I think importantly, as we look beyond that, the fact that we're already seen as the best-in-class oral therapy in neuroendocrine tumors. That's really great that, a, we've done it so quickly. And our research actually indicates it's not even close -- sort of well out in front of the pack there. And that's important because that's a metric that is typically a leading indicator of physician behavior. So kind of as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we really do think that we'll continue to increase in new patient market share there.
And as Mike kind of mentioned, first quarters of launch, you're getting a lot of new patients on therapy, and it takes time to really get the benefit of refills for those patients. So we anticipate that as patients continue to come on therapy, we have more and more patients on therapy, we'll start to sort of stack those refills driving demand. And finally, I mentioned that this is a more indolent disease. So a lot of what we're seeing and hearing from our sales force advisory boards, et cetera, is physicians really like the data. They have patients on other therapies and neuroendocrine tumors who are stable and when those patients need progress and need another therapy. They're planning on using Cabo for that choice. But obviously, it's great if patients are stable with metastatic cancer. And so there is an element of time that we need kind of the growth governed by patients coming off therapy. But we anticipate all these dynamics giving us really strong growth in NETs going forward.
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Schmidt with Guggenheim.
Yes, a question on STELLAR-303. Obviously, great positive announcement here earlier on hitting OS in the ITT analysis. And yes, I think some of us are just curious how you think then they may be positioned in a broader colorectal cancer land cape perhaps relative to other new treatment options, including an untrap, which we hear is make some inroads in the market? And question number one. And then question number two, obviously, the trial hit the ITT analysis. So at this point, how important is billing on the NLM subset later on in terms of regulatory approvals or commercial marketing ability down the road.
Thanks, Michael. Amy, please.
Sure, I'll try and answer both of those. So just stepping back, I appreciate the recognition of the importance of an OS benefit in colorectal cancer, which is the fourth leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the U.S. and OS is unequivocal in that it is the gold standard in oncology drug development. Also noting that this is the only IO TKI positive Phase III study, 4 have failed in before us, not exclusive to [ M-Base ] LEAP relativity and I think [ T-Form ] is the other one. So we're also excited about the data, and we're excited about the fact that this did hit in the ITT patient population, it's really important to be able to continue to bring novel therapies to patients. So it would be the only other potential doublet available to patients if it gets approved, including Lance. How we think about the NLM subgroup, it's a different prognostic subgroup. We know that their survival is longer. It's a dual primary end point. So we did hit on OSS and the ITT. So we have a positive study, we will continue to follow though, as per the statistical design for the NLM patient population.
And I think it's important to show that there's benefit equally across all subgroups. So we're looking forward to waiting for that data, which we will know more about later when we -- as we get closer when we have it, but we're really looking forward to discussing with the regulators, the top line data in ITT as well as sharing the data to the broader community in a medical conference.
[Operator Instructions]. Our next question comes from the line of Asthika Goonewardene with Truist Securities.
I want to layer on to Michael's previous question. It sounds like we're having similar thoughts about this too often investor discussions. Maybe if you can tell us, with STELLAR-303, the language in the press release was a little bit maybe on the conservative side. So could you maybe tell us if you have a view whether the data in the ITT population is clinically meaningful? I think that's been a debate point here in our discussions with investors. And secondly, do you have plans to advance zanza in combinations in earlier lines in CRC? And could you just maybe tell us what looks most attractive to you?
Amy, please?
Yes. Thanks for the question. So the language in the press release is purposely conservative. We are in a new and highly dynamic regulatory environment such that a conservative tone is warranted. And qualitative interpretation is by definition subjective, but let me please be very clear. OS is unequivocal as an endpoint and is the gold standard for approval. The combination of zanza demonstrated an improvement in overall survival against an active comparator, and it was statistically significant. And we look forward to sharing the data with the broader community. With regard to additional studies with zanzalintinib and moving into earlier lines of therapy, I did talk a little bit about an area that we are keenly interested in, which would evaluate monotherapy zanzalintinib in the adjuvant setting in patients who have really exhausted all available care to them which is typically surgery and sometimes includes chemotherapy. And these patients have a high risk of disease of recurrence. And sometimes recurrence can come as soon as a year. And these patients have nothing available to them, but to sits and wait for their next CT scan to determine whether or not their disease has recurred. So if we could offer something there to delay disease recurrence, potentially prevent the recurrence of disease, we think that, that would be a really meaningful impact to patients.
Our next question comes from the line of Silvan Tuerkcan with Citizens.
Congrats on the executing this quarter. I just wanted to see if you could comment, please, on the pricing dynamics with cabozantinib especially with respect to the 340B volume and the reimbursement there in the near future and post the Big Beautiful Bill?
Yes. Thanks, Silvan. Chris, do you want to take that?
Yes, Silvan, thanks for the question. Yes, I mentioned that we saw a 4 percentage point increase in our volume shifts towards the 340B segment of the population or segment of our customers. And that payer segment is highly discounted segments. So it's having an impact on our gross to net. From an overall -- and that's also from an overall industry perspective. There are a lot of companies that are seeing higher utilization in this payer segment. But from a cabo perspective, what we're seeing is our continued success at becoming the standard of care -- we're also seeing the sites of care are expanding. And so we have more -- a greater number of 340B facilities utilizing cabo. So based on what we know today, we're projecting gross debt probably coming closer to the 30% range versus what I had previously provided in the 29% to 30% range.
[Operator Instructions]. Our next question comes from the line of Yaron Werber with TD Cowens.
Right. I have a couple of interrelated questions. Maybe the first one, 304, the primary endpoint is PFS and ORR do you have to hit them both? Or is it one that it's a dual you can -- one of them can oversay the other? Because I imagine RR might be earlier than PFS. And then maybe secondly, just on 303 against you -- in the past did like 6 months, 10 years ago and then 9 months more recently, how would you expect that control to sort of perform given the Avastin Lancelot does about 10.8 months. So how it does historically is a bit relevant?
Yes. Thanks, Yaron. Amy, do you want to take those?
Yes. Thanks for the question. To clarify for STELLAR-304, it is a dual primary endpoint, PFS and ORR. So hitting on either one of them would constitute a positive study. The endpoints are also assessed by blinded independent radiology committee. So these are not investigator-assessed end points. When it comes to the control arm and 303, I'm not going to really talk about the data. I'm looking forward to sharing it with you. at a future time. And as I mentioned, we will be discussing it as well with regulators with an intention to file a new drug application.
Please stand by for the next question. Our next question comes from the line of Akash Tewari with Jefferies.
So Mike, I think when we had caught up at ASCO, you had described the head and neck no-go decision to be a relatively low bar to proceed. And your team was confident you could have a competitive profile despite some of the emerging single-arm data from bispecifics. I think cabo/nivo has shown historically a response rate over 50% in that setting. Can we offer that the zanza data looks similar or worse to cabo and that's what drove your decision to not move that forward? And what were you expecting from a clinical profile there relative to what was shown from an event rates perspective.
Yes. Amy, you want to take that?
Yes, sure. So I wasn't a conversation, but I can tell you that it's a dynamic landscape. We're in the business of developing drugs and really are -- hopefully, you can hear from the sense of urgency and my voice unwavering in our mission to develop areas of high unmet need and generate results that really will have a meaningful impact to patients. Rigorous drug development requires continuous assessment had the study designed as a Phase II/III with a gate. We looked at the data and decided not to proceed to pay to Phase III based on the competitive landscape, the regulatory environment and in the other areas that we would really like to focus in the development and when you talk about Wave 2 of the franchise.
[Operator Instructions]. Our next question comes from the line of Jason Gerberry with Bank of America Securities.
So just want another follow-up on STELLAR-303. And the extent that you could comment on the enrollment demographics and maybe if there are any variables that help lead to a different outcome than LEAP-017. I believe that you could have enrolled up to 40% of patients with non-liver met, so pretty much highly similar to LEAP-017, but potentially that could have gone a little bit higher. So I don't know if you're able to comment on directionally the enrollment SKU with patients with on [ Liver ] MET. And the opportunity with in the adjuvant CRC setting. Do you have a rough sense of what the U.S. patient number is for that market? I imagine there's some proprietary market segmentation data that maybe goes into sizing that. But any idea if you can give us a sense on sizing there?
Yes, Jason, thanks for the questions. Amy, I take the first part, and then I'll opine on the second part.
Sure, sure. So.
This was a global registrational study. We enrolled 900 patients whenever we're designing me is we need to make sure that the study is relevant to the various areas of the world so that we can maintain equipoise in the enrollment and as well ensure that there's consistency of benefit across all subpopulations. I'm not going to go into any details, but I'm looking forward to sharing those with you in the future.
Yes. And in terms of future studies in earlier lines of CRC, as Amy has spoken to about a potential adjuvant type study our postadjuvant type study zanza monotherapy. We'll get into the details later as we're closer to launching that trial. We're really excited about it. We think it's a large opportunity built from a patient point of view, and a potential revenue point of view, again, low to no competition and one that we think zanza is based upon its profile can do really well. And so stay tuned, we'll talk about it more as we go forward, but this is the beginning of Wave 2. And we're certainly excited to be able to prioritize our investments as we go forward. I think that's the key thing. Look at the 305 decision is really simple prioritizing how we're going to invest in terms of high PTS high commercial potential opportunities as we go forward.
[Operator Instructions]. Our next question comes from the line of Leonid Timashev with RBC Capital Markets.
It's Anish on for Leonid -- moving forward in head and neck, -- are you thinking about balancing down this potential as a life cycle play to cabo in indications like RCC or net versus in broader indications as we think about leveraging an existing prescriber and patient base and work required to broaden that beyond what cabo touches. How are you framing your priorities there?
Yes. I guess the status quo in terms of Wave 1 and Wave 2 is still moving forward. We're thinking, again, we're looking to maximize success with zanza by impacting more patients as possible and making that, having the impact on their disease, the maximal impact we could have on their disease.
So when you think about the overlap with cabo, we're looking at newer indications in terms of zanza combinations with belzutifan with the studies that Merck are doing. Amy talked about 311 today launching that study against in net zanza monotherapy against everolimus head-to-head. So a win there would really define a superior product in terms of a head-to-head study.
And then the second wave in terms of reinforcing the success we've seen so far, clinically in 303 and CRC by moving up in therapy is certainly very important to add new indications that we talked about as well, further getting beyond the combo reach. So again, the whole story here, the whole focus here is to reinforce the expertise that we have, the strength that we have in the TKI franchise to go beyond combo to build a larger franchise in terms of scope impact for patients and revenue. And that plan is only being reinforced today with the overall schemes that we're pushing forward.
Our next question comes from the line of Andy Hsieh with William Blair.
So maybe 1 epidemiology question. So what percentage would you characterize as high-risk post adjuvant in the CRC setting. And maybe one that's a potential read across from 303 is generation, I guess, in RCC, most of the data therapy trials were 1 year in duration. I'm just thinking about if that's something that you're thinking about as well and whether the 303 tolerability profile and taking profile could also inform that treatment duration to.
So Amy, take the second question first, and then I'll follow up on the...
Yes. So I appreciate the question with regard to duration, which defines how long -- obviously, how long patients are on therapy. I think we have to take that in the context of colorectal is still the fourth leading cause of cancer-related deaths in the U.S. So duration plus population of patients, I think, brings a potential to make a difference in a lot of people's lives. And when we think about moving it earlier in lines of therapy and an adjuvant, the duration there would be obviously defined by probably a longer period of time. in the patients that we're talking about who have higher risk of disease. You're looking at Stage II, III patients who have -- whose risk of recurrence is measured more in months, early months, not years. As for the number.
Yes. Let me take that. So again, Andy, we'll give you more details about the zanza post-adjuvant study as we get closer to launching. What I'll say is the following is that we look at the commercial opportunity. We have a great team within commercial that does that analysis for us. We think the combined opportunities that is represented by post adjuvant study as well as the menogenoma study is probably around 3x higher than what the head and neck study was. So again, from the standpoint of how we're prioritizing investments and allocating resources, both in terms of capital as well as resources, human resources, we think it makes a lot of sense to move forward in these new indications as quickly as possible because we -- again, the need is there. The competition is very low to none, and the commercial opportunity is very, very high.
Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Berens with Leerink Partners.
A couple more questions on the CRC program and STELLAR-303. The FDA has made demonstrating contribution to parts of a priority. Just wondering if you think that STELLAR-303 has met that bar, and then some concerns I've heard from investors are that the intent to treat OS benefit may have been driven by an improvement in the non-liver met patients that are part of the cohort. And the impact on checkpoint inhibitor efficacy. I know the NMOS analysis is not rate yet, which is probably contributing to this concern. But is there anything you can say to address this? How important is it that you demonstrate a definitive benefit in the patients that have liver METs.
Amy, go ahead, please.
Yes. Yes. Thanks for the question. So contribution of components is something that we have long recognized as an important factor for this study. And I will remind you of ASCO GI earlier this year, where we showed STELLAR-001 colorectal cancer cohorts, zanza versus zanza plus atezo and across all efficacy parameters, ORR, PFS, OS, DOR, the addition of atezo to zanza was there. So we have contribution of components coming from a separate study.
And in terms of the NLM and subgroups, I'll share it -- again, I'm not going to get into any of the data. We have a positive OS readout in the intent-to-treat patient population. As you yourself pointed out, we continue to follow for OS and NLM, and we look forward to sharing all the data as soon as we can.
Our next question comes from the line of Derek Archila with Wells Fargo.
Just one on net in terms of how should we be thinking about the revenue trajectory post second quarter. And the next couple of quarters have launched more bolus like before steadying off as you need to roll over these indolent patients become candidates for therapy? And then just a follow-up,. just can you discuss the breadth of prescribing that you're seeing among the target positions so far?
Yes. Thanks for the question. We're not going to give quarter-to-quarter guidance, obviously, we don't do that. So we're very excited about where we stand in the second quarter, which is again our first full quarter of launch. All the narratives that we've been talking about in terms of what that means, I think are pretty clear. I won't repeat those here. P.J., you want to add some color commentary on the second part of that question?
Yes. As far as the prescriber base, I'd say we're pleased generally. We're seeing prescriptions broadly, as I mentioned, in terms of academic, in terms of community. We're seeing prescriptions from cabo naive prescribers as well as legacy cabo prescribers. So basically, we're seeing activation and/or sort of more prescriptions from prior prescribers. So we're pleased with those kinetics across the board.
Our next question comes from the line of Sudan Loganathan with Stephens.
My first one in regards to the positive pipeline release that you had for the OS benefit in STELLAR-303, does the dual endpoint give the opportunity to at least get approval for one of the patient populations if are there any nuances with either the NLM or the liver met population that makes it not as favorable when filing with the FDA? And then secondly, I wanted to squeeze in, if you can opine at the current reiterated guidance ranges include contributions from net.
Go ahead, Amy.
Yes. Thanks for the question. I'm not going to really speculate on what would suffice for approval. The dual primary endpoint is designed such that you can be positive on one. Chris, take the second one?
Yes. So thanks for the question. As Mike mentioned last quarter, we increased guidance when we increased guidance by about $100 million to the midpoint. Some of that was related to NET, a lot of that was related to the base business.
Our next question comes from the line of Peter Lawson with Barclays.
Chris, just following up around the details around the guidance. Is there any way how we should think about clinical trial revenues in the second half?
Yes, Peter, thanks for the question. I mean as we said probably a couple of years now, the clinical trial sales are choppy. We have some visibility occasionally, but not -- we don't have a very good line of sight to when the clinical trial sales are coming through. So it's hard to say. So that's about it.
Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Willey with Stifel.
Congrats on the STELLAR-303 readout. Just I guess a quick clarification question on the 305 decision. So I think I remember you guys were blinded to the data, and that a DMC would be, I guess, evaluating some threshold level of efficacy metrics and then allowing you to proceed on a blinded basis to potentially upsize the study. So can you just kind of talk through the cadence of the decision in terms of assessing the competitive landscape and then seeing the data. Were those 2 things done in lockstep? Or did the former proceed the ladder.
Go ahead, Amy, please.
Yes. Thanks. So I'm not going to go into a whole lot of detail here. The trial was designed with the gate. We reviewed the unblinded data. we may have a path forward in head and neck, and we'll determine if additional studies are warranted. But for now, we're prioritizing other indications and allocating resources accordingly. Head and neck is a unique population and we'll share the data at a future time.
[Operator Instructions]. Our next question comes from the line of Ash Verma with UBS.
So for STELLAR-303, I'm trying to understand if this ITT data can come at a medical conference this year or do we wait until next year. Just another way to ask the same thing. Can you still present the ITT portion of the study without reaching the final analysis on NNM?
Yes. Thanks for the question. We're not discussing the venue for the data presentation, but we'll provide the data once the abstract titles are made publicly available but we presented the dual primary end point before, where we've hit on one and still waited for the other.
Thank you. At this time, I'm showing no further questions. So I will now turn the call over to today's host, Susan Hubbard. Ms. Hubbard?
Yes. Thank you, Towanda, and thank you all for joining us today. We welcome your follow-up calls with any additional questions you may have that we were unable to address during today's call.
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
Exelixis, Inc. — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz gesamt: ~$568 Mio. in Q2 2025.
- Cabo-Umsatz: $520 Mio. (+19% YoY vs. $438 Mio.).
- Gross-to-net: 30.2% für die Cabo‑Franchise; 340B‑Volumen >24% des Volumens (↑4 P.-P. YoY).
- Ergebnis: GAAP-Nettogewinn ~$184.8 Mio. (EPS $0.68); Non‑GAAP ~$212.6 Mio. (EPS $0.78).
- Liquidität & Buyback: Cash ~$1,4 Mrd.; $302 Mio. Aktienrückkäufe in Q2; $204 Mio. Restvolumen im $500 Mio.-Programm.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Kommerzfokus: CABOMETYX wird als führender TKI (Tyrosinkinase‑Inhibitor) in RCC gehalten; NET‑Launch (seit Mär 2026) zeigt frühe Marktführerschaft in neuen Patienten.
- Zanza‑Franchise: Zanzalintinib (IO‑Kombinationen und Monotherapie) wird priorisiert; STELLAR‑303 (CRC) positiv für OS (Overall Survival) im ITT (Intent‑to‑Treat), 304 auf Kurs für H1/2026.
- Portfolio & Kapital: Early‑Stage‑Programme (z. B. XL309, XB628, XB371) voranschreiten; rigorose Priorisierung (z. B. Abbruch/No‑go von STELLAR‑305) und fortgesetzte BD sowie Rückkäufe.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Guidance: Die Jahresprognose 2025 wird bestätigt; Management prüft Aktualisierungen je nach NET‑Launch‑Momentum.
- Risikofaktor: Höhere Gross‑to‑net‑Abzüge (340B) drücken Margen — Management erwartet nun eher ~30% Bereich.
- Steuer/Cash: Gesetzesänderung erlaubt beschleunigte Abzugsfähigkeit von inländischen F&E‑Kosten; geschätzter einmaliger Cash‑Tax‑Vorteil ~$147 Mio. (kein Einfluss auf Steueraufwand).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- STELLAR‑303: Fokus auf Details der ITT‑OS‑Daten und Bedeutung der NLM‑(non‑liver metastases) Subgruppe; Gespräch mit Regulatoren geplant, NLM‑OS weiterhin verfolgt.
- NET‑Launch & Nachhaltigkeit: Analysten fragten nach Dauerhaftigkeit der 35% New‑Patient‑Share, Auswirkung auf Refills und ob NET‑Anteil die CAGR stützt.
- Preise & 340B: Fragen zu Preisdynamik, Erstattung und wie höhere 340B‑Nutzung die Bruttomargen und Guidance beeinflusst.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Solide operative Quarter: starkes Cabo‑Wachstum und überzeugender NET‑Start schaffen Upside‑Potenzial; gleichzeitig drücken 340B getriebene Gross‑to‑net‑Abzüge auf Margen. Entscheidende Katalysatoren sind die vollständigen STELLAR‑303‑Daten, der weitere Verlauf des NET‑Launches und die Umsetzung der Pipeline‑Prioritäten.
Exelixis, Inc. — Lucid Capital Markets Investor Event
1. Management Discussion
[indiscernible] And Jeremy Levin. When I sent out the invite for this webinar, I got feedback from some of you, and I quote, "Oh my gosh, what a trifecta, unbelievable lineup. How did you do it? I think we got lucky, extremely lucky. Thank you very much, gentlemen, for accepting the invite. And instead of spending 60 minutes reading through your bios I thought that I would just mention a couple of interesting factors since most in the audience will know you. You've been around some and experience some of the ups and downs of this industry. Stelios started his Wall Street career as an analyst. 40 years and 1 month ago. Is that correct, Stelios. He founded and chaired the Board of Exelixis since 1998. Dennis entered a little bit earlier in 1982 and subsequently established Aisling Capital in 1999, a funded that deployed over $15 billion in about 200 biotech investments.
Following a decade practicing medicine Jeremy joined the biopharma industry in 1987 leading Teva and having had executive positions at Bristol, Novartis and being a co-founder and current Chairman and CEO of Ovid Therapeutics. So as many of you know, Stelios is often mentioned as the Godfather of biotech, which I think it speaks for itself. Dennis is a proud second-generation Irish American. He named his firm Aisling as per Irish for vision or dream. Jeremy was born and based on a farm in South Africa called the Hoek, did I pronounce it correctly, Jeremy. And today, he has a farm in Connecticut called the Hoek where he raises Black Angus. So he's in pharma, and he is also a farmer.
He's also the author and executor of the String of Pearls Strategy at Bristol, and we'll probably mention this and we talk about it a little bit later. So turning our attention to the image that I share with you. The title is darkest before Dawn. I lifted this picture from an article in Nature Biotechnology some 10 months ago. And the question is how far from dawn are we? Figuratively speaking, is it minutes or maybe hours.
So on the next slide, I compiled a few stock charts in the middle on the top is the XVI index. This is performance over the last 10 years. Inflation adjusted, it's probably a negative return. The BTK, just below it, which is more focused on larger cap biotech fared a little bit better, but nowhere close to where the NASDAQ was over the last 10 years.
Now if we take the top 10 companies gotten highest holdings in the XBI, the better performers are depicted on the left-hand side and maybe not a coincidence, but the top performer, guess what, is Exelixis with an annualized return of 23%. If you look at on the right-hand side, the picture is less appetizing there with Gilead being the most significant underperformer in the top 10. I mean, the index has 120 other names besides this plan. And most of the companies below the $100 million market cap range probably trade below cash at this stage.
So let's look at some statistics from the last 10 years. We are looking at the VC fundraising over this decade which peaked in -- back in 2018 and has declined ever since. And the trend that is mirrored by the IPO market, which peaked during the pandemic, but it's practically a shot at this stage. And perhaps the only ray of sunshine here -- sorry, I think I missed yes, before we get to the ray of sunshine. In this slide, we compiled the last 6 quarters worth of secondary offerings, which obviously it appears that they are declining.
So -- the only thing that is currently appears to be positive is the M&A activity over the last 10 years, which appears to be steady or stable. And we have seen at least 7 relatively sizable acquisitions by pharma, totaling about $28 billion, perhaps with the hope that some of those proceeds will be reinvested in biotech. So going back to this slide and maybe we can start on the Stelios maybe a provocative question is biotech investable.
No more, no less than any other time. Of course, it is. You just have to be careful, select the right stories, defining your investment horizon. But more than anything else, if you got to understand the world around because we have a tendency to think of biotech markets coming and going strictly because of our own doing within biotech. Do we have good news is FDA been good to us? Are we getting approvals, sales and earnings going up. All these things do matter. There's no doubt.
What matters just as much, if not more, in the alternative investment opportunities. Can I put my money to work in the technology sector, do I do cyclicals? How are -- how is the fixed income market? All these things do matter and we don't seem to be looking at them a whole lot. So I'd say, all in all, frankly, if I could share a slide I will show you now the last 10 years of IPOs, the last 50 years of IPOs. And all of a sudden, in 2024, which looks like a bad year is -- it is a bad year in the last 10 years. Over the last 50 years, it's a very good year. So it's a question of what time period you choose.
2. Question Answer
Yes. Do you want -- would you like to share your slide.
Yes, let me just see if -- yes. Can you all see it?
Yes. That's a different perspective. Yes.
So some of you may know this, I painstakingly been collecting the prospectus of all biotech IPOs of all time. I actually read them. I annotate them. I introduced data into spreadsheets. And if you look here for the last 10 years, 2024 doesn't look great, but it's only second after the year 2000, which was another exaggeration. Now the industry has been growing. I understand you can normalize things. But bottom line is, it's not so bad.
Okay. So historically, when you had these peaks and troughs how did the funding scarcity impacted the industry? How did we manage to survive these dry periods, so to speak, which is more relative obviously.
Is that addressed to me or...
Perhaps we can start...
Look, I think what we do is the most important point for investors to understand is whether consciously or subconsciously the investment horizon expands and shrinks based on your expectation of returns. If you're feeling good, optimistic, you'll invest in a preclinical asset. If not, you're going to look at late stage assets only which is where we are right now. It's very hard to get good funding for a preclinical idea no matter how powerful it is. And I think that's what affects the investment horizon. Basically, I know you'll be asking that question later, just to run ahead for a moment. The market most analogous to what's going on now was the exuberance of 2000 and what follow after that. And what followed after that was what they call the nuclear winter and all sorts of things, and we thought we were all going to be dead. And here we are still 25 years later, alive and well and with many new products in the market.
So it's always the investment process reacts to the recent market events and one's perception was likely to happen.
And have you seen any adjustments to business models during these periods when one had to reexamine what we are doing or what we are investing in, apart from this sentiment from going earlier stage feeling more lucky or focused on late-stage or commercial product companies.
I think there are a lot of fancy terms of business models. In my mind, there's really only 2 ways to think about it. One is to invest early in technological capabilities that lead to products and the other to invest late-stage products that are in the clinic and with a clear sign of potential market introduction. When the investment horizon shrinks, you go to the latter. When you feel exuberant just look at the IPOs of 2020, 2021, every crazy idea that made you the product 15 years from now was being funded.
Interesting. Dennis, if we could go and continue with you, -- what do you think would be the signs that perhaps the IPO market or this activity will change? What should happen for that based on historical parallels to previous bear markets that tend to end between 2 to 3 years.
My hunch is that we're going to need some type of reset. I go back a little bit to Stelios and go back 40 years. I see this as kind of the third phase of our evolution. The first phase, I put it kind of the '80s and '90s and ended up with the dot-com crash. But then we got the human gene, then we entered the second phase, which is powered by the human genome project, up to COVID and like -- and now we're in this third phase, which is lasting longer than the other 2 phases. The other ones were up, even though there were hiccups in the middle. And I think that Stelios talked about being an investable industry, of course, if you look at our supply chain, big pharma had top 10 pharmas do about 80% of sales, 3 PBMs, 3 big insurers, and we have 5,000 companies. So I'm trying to think about how you can have a good sustainable -- a good investable industry with that many companies.
So like do we need 4,000 gene therapy trials going on now? Maybe, maybe out of chaos is where the answer comes. But even a big proponent of gene and cell therapy, somebody like Scott Gottlieb, he says maybe 25 a year, and then you get to 100 over 4 years with 4,000 of them being going on.
So again, maybe out of chaos comes the best ideas and the like. But right now, I don't see a whole lot of green -- although from a personal level, we did -- I would go back to 2 things Stelios said, we had a very early stage asset in a company called IGI, Ichnos Glenmark Innovation that I sit on the Board of. And last week, we had some have good data in multiple myeloma. It's kind of a trispecific. And had bidders over the place for that thing. And finally, we went with AbbVie, and they paid us $700 million upfront, and there will be a $2 billion deal.
And then we sold Verona last week too to Merck, and that was about $10 billion. That was a healthy transaction also. So kind of -- they're looking around -- what worries me is the level of interest we had on both of those assets and the fact that M&A is not up, Liu, I could draw the conclusion and 1 could draw the conclusion that big pharmas picked over everything and not seeing what they like.
But at least in my experience over the 2 that we announced last week, there was plenty of people around the table that wanted to invest. And then the timeline question well, I'll stop there.
Yes, yes, yes. So moving on to some perceived headwinds or real headwinds and Jeremy, would you look at this list and from your perspective, which 1 of those do you think is holding people back and/or the real concerns, let it be potential regulatory disruptions tariffs are the most favorite nation pricing initiative the fact that the IPO window is short and the new store is almost predicted would the investor sentiment, which is thought to be not nearly as despondent as it has been according to a recent survey.
A couple of things, if I can and taking that list and then coming back to it in a minute. What Stelios and Dennis described is an environment which over the last 10, 20 years, has experienced black swan events. They come and they go. And you had a reasonable opportunity to understand that it would come back. You would take action. Right now, we're in a very different situation. We're not in a black swan event. We're in a complete reset of the economy, of the social structure and of the governance of the country. So underlying everything that we say today, there's a very different thinking that goes on.
What that occasions, I think, is a couple of important considerations. There's plenty of opportunity. We are -- there is a reset necessary. There was this ebullient moment where lots and lots of huge amounts of my money were poured into companies, which really didn't have much opportunity to be successful because the products were very speculative.
However, that being said, many of those companies are sitting out there, I think something like 200, which you've got no product and a lot of cash. Something will happen with them. That's an opportunity for them to rethink their governance, do they want to give that cash back or do they want to sit down and really engage in collectively thoughtfully putting themselves together with other companies. That will be a very good sign if we start to see that.
More important.ly Just that particular point. The last 3 now, I think it's 4 years. There's been more M&A than IPOs. So we might be beginning to see the start of a reset.
Exactly Dennis. Now you asked about what's holding people back. I think the uncertainty that has swept through the FDA has had a very negative impact. That uncertainty will clarify itself over time. But the regulatory disruptions are of great concern. However, on the other side to that is understanding that this is well perceived in Europe and America and China. And the Chinese and the Europeans are saying, come to us. So you're seeing investment pouring into China. You're seeing investment revving up in Europe. And I would say to you the regulatory disruptions by themselves have occasioned already a change. So what signs should we see in that particular area? Well, I think some very clear statements about from the regulatory environment, from the leaders of the FDA that they are going to give some degree of certitude about how processes are going to be run.
With regard to the tariffs, look, some people look at them as a little bit like political bullfighting. Look at this, which is the red flag, that statement of the tariff, but you really ought to be asking the question, what's going on in the Fed, what's going on in the bond market, what's going on elsewhere. I think that the tariffs sometimes have significant impacts if they are going to be imposed and will have a rigorous and dramatic impact on the supply chain because it's impossible to rebuild the biotech and pharmaceutical industry within the United States, and we are utterly dependent for the foreseeable future on China as a source.
The important point to remember here is that China has spent 25 years with a specific strategy to build this? They're basically cheering right now. They know they're going to be in control. And unless we in this country do something on a policy basis, a clear signal of a bio build strategy coming out of Washington, D.C. In other words, saying biotech is a national strategy. We believe that it is nationally important. We're going to look to address capital formation, regulatory issues. And indeed, we want to invest in the states that want to build new plant. That will be a signal and we'll just open the flood gate. So I think tariffs are a much bigger picture.
Just 1 question here, though, from the bottom line perspective, since we are dealing with APIs that are made in China and we are dealing with 90-plus percent profit margins on small molecules. Does it really have a huge impact if the API itself would have 30%, 40% tariff on it as opposed to the finished product itself.
Very good question. The answer is probably not in and of itself. Much more serious issue is if you do not have political alignment between China and the United States, imagine the moment when you don't have the API to build an antibiotic. Okay? We need to consider this. We, as a -- what's really interesting under all of this is that the biotech industry has grown up into itself to the point of Stelios and Dennis, we now represent a core pillar of the United States health strategy. And as a consequence of that, this high margins, low margins and API also needs to be considered in the political context of having a dialogue between 2 countries, which is 1 which has to be constructive because if it's not, what you lead to is what I described to you suddenly not having the API to get an antibiotic. And that's troublesome.
Yes. Coming back to you Stelios, we lived through this MFN or favorite nation pricing initiative before. Do you have -- do you think that it will ever be implemented something like that?
So that's the core of this discussion today, I think, having to do with all these margins and everything else. And I'll go -- MFN, we'll talk about this in a moment, I'll go point Jeremy made before, which is the essential central issue to deal with. We're in the middle of a major reset, not of the biotech market of our society, our political system and our economy. And what is going on is because there have been so many ever-changing on a case of contradictory or realistic pronouncements from the top. We get to the point almost now of the [indiscernible] too much. When you hear that okay, we'll put big tariffs, 200% on finished products on pharma companies unless they start producing in the U.S. in a year. Well, that's just not going to happen.
Nobody can build a plant from nothing and be up and running in a year. It's a totally other question. So somebody should know that in government and someone should control these pronouncements. So what I'm saying is because these things appear to be somewhat contradictory or realistic, people are not paying attention. The issue is no matter which way, no matter how, no matter by what mechanism drug prices are going down. slowly and steadily year in and year out, the profitability of the pharma sector 10 years from now would be meaningfully less than what it is now. And we're not going to be so clever to game the system to call a discount or rebate itself. It's not a discount, it's a rebate. It's a different thing.
So I think that's what people are missing out on, which is the secular trend towards decreasing prices and therefore, decreasing margins. And once your margins shrink, you start reorganizing your companies. There'll be more outsourcing. Companies will fall out of the way. It will be acquired. There will be some arrangement. As far as the biotechs are concerned, whether they're 1,000 or 5,000. All they got to do is pick the 2 or 3. They're going to be good enough or lucky enough to develop something pharma would want to buy because pharma even more so going forward, than ever would want to buy biotech products or technologies. So that's how we have to look at it.
The question is as a stock picker. Most people don't have the access to asset or to people and assets that we might have in order to do due diligence. So -- the question I have is, how does anybody kind of -- we have PhDs, MDs, KOLs, blah, blah, blah, talk to hundreds of payers you talk to before you make an investment. And the question that I wrestle with is that as we move away from the venture capital specialized model of biotech and move more toward a broader range of people investing in the sector. How do they get educated about what to buy. I mean we're having -- we're in the middle -- going to be in the middle of this great wealth transfer. Everything is going to from baby boomers on down to the millennials, and they want impact investing. Biotech is right up their alley.
But how do they educate themselves in order to be a stock picker. I mean I think one thing you can -- if you look at it, you talked about being a stock picker. I was thinking about '20 and '21 really the home run here was people that could time to think pretty well. So if you could time the market that was really the best way to play biotech. It's a fabulous way to play biotech without worrying about failed trials and stuff like that.
So -- the question what, yes, so...
I mean but that is, look, I don't expect the average individual in a house smart to become well versed in biotech technology products, markets investing to go do it directly. If they have a lot of money, you know they're all going to do. They're going to give it to you or somebody else in the hedge fund community or go buy a mutual fund. I mean they're not going to invest directly. They should not be investing directly. It's way too complicated. Look, 40 years ago, I knew every company and every product. Now I got to keep on asking people for their opinion because I can't keep up it so much.
And you're starting to see Stelios on the analyst side, they don't even put price targets anymore because there are so many companies out there that they can't -- they themselves have trouble keeping track of what's out there.
I tell you what, I love the best analysts who have stock price is $30. Their price target is $50, and they got to hold on them. So it's like...
Dennis, going back to your point. There's something, which has also shifted dramatically over these last 30 years. It's not the amount of money that's invested. It's how the venture world has chosen to grow itself as an industry, how much funds have flowed into it and then their ability to deploy capital in high risk versus lower risk in their minds entity. So what you've seen which is truly interesting and I think has some significant impact. You're seeing in China, for example, investments of $1 million, $2 million, $3 million, $5 million by Chinese investors. Actually, you see this very similarly in Silicon Valley, where they invest in similar high-tech entities, small amounts of capital.
That has changed fundamentally in the United States. In the United States, it used to be that there were some very highly qualified venture funds who would have a pretty clear model, $10 million, $20 million with a $50 million and then take it out. Now we're in a completely different environment. You have $200 million, $300 million, $400 million A rounds. This is unbelievably different from before and has direct consequences on our ability to generate innovation because with the power of America's innovation was the smarts that Dennis that Stelios and others had early on in picking really interesting high-risk, incredibly interesting innovative companies, knowing that the chances of most of them wouldn't win, but they were going to have a few winners. That's not the case today. So I -- for me, I think there's another thing which would signal a really good return to what I hope would be a vibrant biotech industry, would be getting some of the venture funds to say, okay, we're going to return to what we were which is we're going to start picking on some really smart, small entities.
And that may not be possible because as Dennis points out, his fund has grown immensely. His expertise is deep and that's the very expertise that is required for these early companies. I'm not sure that Dennis can afford to do what I've described, getting -- growing up a whole new generation of venture funds may help that.
Yes. And I think the underlying, Jeremy, thing that happens is the limited partner base is changing a lot also. And Stelios has not talked about this a lot in the past, where the timeframe we have is not the same timeframe as the company's need -- and there's more and more pressure now to even be shorter in the timelines because all the states are going broke and all the university endowments are dipping into their endowments more and more to fund operating expenses.
So that unfortunately, the timeline for the limited partners is shortening up because of their cash needs for their retirees on the one hand or their universities on the other. And so unlike 20 years ago, Stelios said you knew everybody in the room and you knew who all the VCs are, I think we're going to go through a reset there. Also, I think we're going to go through a reset in the venture capital community. I have like a wacky idea about the whole -- the reset of the industry, which I was thinking about this the other day. What if we could get to -- I don't know what get together means, but if people agreed that we wouldn't start any new companies until we got -- until we had an exit of one of our companies and just start to see exit starting -- right now, we start about 300 or 400 companies a year and exits, we have about 50.
So we're just continuing to add and add and add to the number of companies. So we're a reset in the venture community. Where it shakes out, I don't know. And the LPs are -- a lot of them are starting their own funds like -- welcome Trust or Ontario Teachers or people like that have their own venture fund. We used to be the intermediary for those guys. And now they're doing it themselves. And I'm sorry, I'll stop. And number, they also are trying to shrink the number of venture funds that they want to invest in. So they want to shrink them, but make them bigger. So you also see in the last year or so, some really big funds be raised, and that's because players like CalPERS, what they'll tell you is we want to -- we have to invest at least $100 million, and we don't want to be more than 10% of your fund. So right off the bat, unless you're a $1 billion fund plus, they're out of the game. So I think we're seeing a -- just like society and just like our industry, I think you're seeing a reset in the venture world also.
I think, if I can jump in, the points both Jeremy and Dennis have made point to 2 very important considerations that most people may not have fully realized. One is the issue of scale. Dennis has described it. Scale redefines how we do business. And this is no longer the idea, as Jeremy was describing that some decades ago, an inventive entrepreneurial scientist will come up with an idea, join up with a friend, start a little company, raise some family and friends money, then go to the venture community, do a $5 million Series A and then do a $20 million Series B and IPO or whatever. All that is gone because largely, the leaders in the venture community are no longer the investment business, they're in the manufacturing business. They manufacture companies. They often will have an idea so like under wraps for a year or 2 or 3 doing work quietly.
And once they're convinced they've got something good, they'll throw in $50 million of their own and maybe 1 or 2 others will join in. And before you know it, off they go, and they've done this multi-hundred million dollar financings. So they're not so much looking to invest in an entrepreneurial idea, but their own ideas. So you can't -- as an intelligent, if we believe that all the great ideas of the world can be contained within a cadre of connected academic scientists in Boston and 10 venture funds and the rest of the world is stupid, then we're fine.
Interesting. Dennis, coming back to you, and let's spend maybe the next 20 minutes looking into the future. I noticed that you started to explore maybe the next frontier, mental health. What do you see there? What sort of treatment modality might be standing out there where there really hasn't been an innovation like 60 years.
Yes. I'm at this stage of my career, I just like Stelios said at the beginning, I can do work with people that you want to work with that are fun to work with, and I don't have to put up with some of the nonsense that we've all put up with over the years. And so my focus over the last couple of years was to say, where is the venture capital community not going? We had great success taking some assets and oncology assets out of Sloan Kettering Memorial over the life of our fund. I think we were like 6 or 6 in terms of wins. But the idea now that I could go into one of the Mass General or Memorial or anywhere and find an oncology drug that hasn't been picked over like a slim and none.
So that in the rare disease business, which has been funded and still has to get funded more, but I was thinking more of where should the industry be going. In the year 2010, the top 10 drugs in America treated 112 million people. In 2020, it treated 17 million. So our drugs become more and more specialized. And I started to think about -- we were -- Jeremy talked about outbreak of flu -- and I guess with -- I was -- oh shoot, I just lost my though, I'll come back to it.
Can I step in? I'm loving what Dennis is saying, if you don't mind. Look, this is a really wonderful time. Over the last 15 years, the amount of investment that was poured into really interesting science has opened up all sorts of different areas. And you asked about neuropsych. Neuropsych has always been a troubled area. However, what Dennis is pointing out, and I think it's very right on target, is that neuropsych is breaking open. It used to be, for example, in Alzheimer's, let's go after the plaque. My haven, 20 years of wasted effort just going after the plaque. The point isn't that. We now have ways of looking and scanning the brain. We have ways of understanding how drugs interact there.
And there are many different areas that we can attack. Hyperrexcitability is the one that we've chosen. But not only that, it's how do you actually balance excitability in the brain. How do you deal with areas such as apoptosis in the brain. And the cancer field has taught us a ton. Imagine for a moment, you talk about Dennis, you're right, you won't find a new cancer drug. However, -- that was the same in HIV. Everybody said, we can knock out these viruses. And then along comes ritonavir, you put this together and boom, you've got a whole different world in HIV. And I think you're going to see exactly that. You've got ADCs, which are being carried in by -- which some of them are toxic, the topoisomerases.
And I think you may well see in the future some very interesting areas which people start to think, well, can't we keep that toxin in the cancer cell, not let it leak out again. So all I'd say is that there is a ton of innovation in areas that are difficult and have proved difficult, and that's the CNS, and now we have real line of sight of some great medicines there. And even in the older one, oncology, you see opportunity, which I think you have to go back and you learn from the previous companies like Gilead, how did they figure out how to make HIV something that is tractable. And it wasn't by simply -- it was simply by being incredibly smart.
And we're going back to just -- I'm sorry, answering your question, one of the points I was trying to think about there was that diseases that affect a lot of people that we have to focus on. So for me, in mental health, it leads me to psychedelics actually. I think that if I was going to dig deeper into it and you look at the data, say, relative to SSRIs and depression or some of the data in PTSD, the data is stunning. And if you didn't know the name of the company or you do nothing, but just put data up against each other, you think a lot of these companies would be trading at $400 million or $500 million. I mean there's some really good Phase II data out there in very difficult diseases.
So one area that I kind of think might have a hockey stick might be the psychedelic area. And I understand all the problems about getting drugs approved, but the data -- unless everybody is lying, the data looked really good on a number of these compounds. So I'm spending some time in that space as well as the longevity space, which I think baby boomers like us are going to start to demand better, not lifespan, but health span as they say. So I think that's going to be a space that gets a fair amount of interest over the next few years also. I think that's another space to get tough to get approvals because how do you run clinical trials. But...
Dennis don't you think that the whole -- we should also consider as you look at those areas, extraordinary impact of AI, large language models and how they're going to help define endpoints, construct clinical trials and certainly in the psychiatric area, the ability to run trials where you can look back and get huge amounts of data on the individuals and then look forward and say, we're going to target a specific endpoint. But that does depend going back to your point, [indiscernible] you need to have an FDA, a regulatory pathway for all these endpoints and a receptive and vibrant organization down in Washington who's willing to listen to these agent.
Jeremy, I agree with that analysis. Yes.
Yes. And if you think about mental health and compare it to cancer where most of you have been involved in the past, we are dealing with a 4x to 5x the market size. I mean, when you add up depression, anxiety, trauma, substance use disorder, you're talking about 80 million people that is still being treated with. I think Zoloft was approved 30 years ago, 33 years ago. That was an innovative drug. Stelios, if you were to look into your crystal ball, what sort of impact do you think AI, which is the recent buzzword, will have in drug development, discovery, development and maybe even the marketing aspects of it. Is this a buzzword? Or is it really applicable you think to our industry?
I think it's a lot more applicable than people realize if they are to be expansive in their thinking because what we've seen so far is certainly the most unexciting application of data science to our business, which is novel molecule design and discovery. And basically, what all of these paradigms do is if it takes you 6 months to synthesize a bunch of analogs against a particular scaffold, you can do it in silico in 3 months. So you save some money, fine. I'm completely underwhelmed by this. This is not why I want to use data science.
In our business, efficiency is secondary to dealing with an otherwise uncurable condition. It's a binary outcome. You find a drug for a condition that cannot be treated. You have huge success, assuming the market is visible enough and the pricing is appropriate. If you're going to get the 3 months sooner, you can make some money but that's not going to really create the explosive return on investment that fuels risk capital into our business. So the next stage, where I think we will see data science become critical is identifying, discovering, defining novel biology. That's where the real opportunity is. Right now, we've been struggling for decades with Alzheimer's. And I've put my own many years of work and effort into that space with underwhelming results. We've got a couple of these antibodies that remove plaques. Some patients do get better. But clearly, we don't have a really good working hypothesis of what goes on in an Alzheimer's brain, so that we can have an interesting opportunity how to go about intervening.
So discovering new biology, defining it, validating it would be critical. And it would be an endless set of opportunities on how to develop, commercialize, market drugs. Our society is changing. I mean, I am almost obsessive about ChatGPT, and I spend enormous time arguing with it, correcting it, getting advice, given by ChatGPT a name, actually gave a lecture on showing how you have to trust ChatGPT, but with a grain of salt. But the world is changing.
I think it was Bill Gates who said that AI was going to be overestimated in the short-term and underestimated in the long-term. And if you look at that whole space, it's kind of -- some ways it's like, gosh, there's so many AI companies out there doing so many things. It's so hard to even sort through from an investing standpoint, where you would want to put your money. But it seems like an awful big bubble that's going on in that space right now. And I hope it doesn't come back to bite us.
Yes. 5 years ago, when SPACs were hot with a bunch of friends, we raised $100 million in the SPAC with a very specific objective to invest at the interface of data science with biomedicine. So we must have seen 100 companies. And the conclusion was either they were way overpriced for what they could deliver in the long-term, or they were just stupid. So at the end, we lost the risk capital. We get the money back because we could legitimately go put our money to work in something that was either of a price that was going to fail. And we gave the money back and we called it a day. But it is real. It is so real. It's not even funny. And those who ignore AI will become the [ finish ] times of our generation.
Do you think it's going to lead to some expense reductions for these companies in terms of R&D expenditures or optimization of less human.
For sure. But that's not, again, our business is about discovering the unknown, not improving efficiencies. It's a little bit like investment banking. Whether you fly first class or business class, it's not the end of the world. Can you land a $20 million, $30 million fee? That's the business.
Right, Dennis?
You got it.
Jeremy...
You're thinking like a banker.
Promise to be going to get to the String of Pearls strategy that you invented. Tell us a little bit about it. I know it's in the past, but in the future, do you see something that could lead to that sort of quantum leap of an advance in whether it's in oncology, mental health or anything else.
The element, most acquisitions in large companies are basically either incidental. They all the CEOs trying to show that they're really trying to do something, and therefore, this is a demonstrative but low-risk thing. Or lastly, they are a moment in time when they think this is an area they must be in. The String of Pearls is completely different. The String of Pearls was constructed when a company had its back to the wall, Bristol. Bristol had about 18 to 24 months to survive or to be consumed. The fact of the matter is that occasioned some really deep thinking about how do you knit together a set of transactions that can actually offer sequential opportunity to grow something which is unique. And its fundamental fact was that no one drug is a solution. It simply isn't.
It is just the beginning of either a new area or you're chasing after somebody else and your marketing team have got to go after it. However, if you knit together a set of transactions where you know your team has got an understanding in it, and therefore, you can now build one transaction on another and you have multiple products coming out of it, you have a sustainable company. Now Bristol was brave enough to do that. The total cost of that String of Pearls is laughable in today's money. It was $4.3 billion, and that was about -- that was 17 transactions. And it returned over a decade, close to $160 billion in value to Bristol. I think it's going back now, looking at the figures, it's probably closer to $200 billion to $240 billion in value to Bristol, let alone opening up the area of IO in the industry.
But I think this -- the real key question when a company looks and makes the decision to take a track like that is have they got a clear strategic vision for what they want to do with their transactions and not just an area, but how do transactions fit into the strategy of the overall company. Now very few CEOs think about that. They think about the patent cliff, got to fill that. They think about the franchise, which is disappearing. They've got to fill that. They think about how can I bolster my revenues for next year, the year afterwards. All of these things play into them. The question, the really -- what will differentiate the truly genuine fundamental growth in the pharma industry are those that see beyond just simply the next 3, 5 years when they're going to leave and leave the problem behind them. Those CEOs who can see 10 years ahead and say, what do I want in this company? And that's really interesting.
Now I would say that Abbott has done a damn good job in doing that. They've really thought their way. They've navigated out of it. Some people may disagree with the acquisitions that they did. But frankly, there's a very quiet engine there, not very spectacular, but they've done that. Lilly did the same. And I think there are certain differentiated entities in the industry, which show us that, that concept of a String of Pearls does work if you have an overall strategy in the company.
Yes. So coming back to mental health and neuroscience, a lot in hate a fair with neuroscience and big pharma. What do you think it will take for the pendulum to swing and for -- and AbbVie you mentioned shows some signs of returning to the area. But what needs to happen for the appetite to grow?
I think it's no different from any other moment in history. We see this repeatedly. We see this in IO, a result, 10 patients, 15 patients which shows that PD-1 works. one company in that area, 10 years later, over 50% of all investment in the pharmaceutical industry in that area, astonishing. But you now see GLPs. GLPs have been around for a long time. You got 1 or 2 successes, boom, they run into it. And now we're seeing it with neurosciences, real impact on depression, real impact on neuropsychiatric areas, companies being bought. Epilepsy is now something which we know we can really tackle.
So I think it takes 1 or 2 brave acquisitions where somebody in the company has said we can see real traction in the medical application of these areas, and it will burst open because there -- all of these companies, just as you said earlier on, when a venture -- Dennis, you said it, when venture capitals don't invest in the area, that's the time to get into it. Neuroscience was a desert because all of the pharmaceutical companies exited out of it. That was 10 years ago. At this moment, you look around the industry, you can see some extraordinarily interesting neuroscience results, data, which is going to drive, I believe, an ignition across the board.
If I can chime in here, a little bit for a moment. I mean, a lot of what it takes is discipline to stay with something long enough. These are not easy problems to solve. Take the GLP-1 area as a case in point. All of this greatness in pharmaceutical markets and drugs started with Amylin, a San Diego company 30 years ago. So Amylin had a deal with Lilly. They also had a deal with J&J. They were acquired by Bristol-Myers. Bristol-Myers sold the assets to AstraZeneca. Hardly enough, of these 4 companies that touched Amylin, only Lilly and the John Lechleiter stayed with it longitudinally and kept on working and kept on working. And all of a sudden, here we are a week or 2 ago, there was a wonderful paper in the New England Journal of Medicine comparing tirzepatide with semaglutide showing that the Lilly drug is demonstrably better. But that's a 20-, 25-year commitment. So that's one thing that's lacking in most pharma companies.
On the issue of neuro, I think in many ways, we all took the lesson from oncology and we said, aha, look how we redefine the oncology drug discovery area in the oncology market by focusing on targeted therapies, precision medicine, specific lesions and mutations and all that. So for a while, we try to emulate this into neuro and kept on talking about genetically validated targets in neuro, except for one thing, most neurological conditions are not monogenic. They're just -- you're not going to -- there are some, but that's the exception. You're not going to be able to deal with CNS conditions by just looking at a mutation somewhere. So what we need here is validated biology and validated biology comes with a lot of work, a lot of biomarkers, a lot of measurement. It's a composite. I mean, Jeremy can talk to you at length about this because he's practicing this. And I think that is going to set the stage now for the next wave of important discoveries in the neuro space.
Yes. Yes. I see a couple of questions in the end chat, but 1 of them is -- have you seen this many Zombie biotech companies cash and not much in the future and how will this situation solve itself?
So clearly, the answer I'll jump in here. The answer is no. For the simplest reason, there are many more companies today. So I don't know if as a percent of the total universe of companies, the zombies are more or less than they used to be. But we used to have zombies in the past. And I would say this, and this comes as a probably contrarian point of view. Once a company fails in its fundamental strategy, whatever they're trying to do. For the Board of Directors to take it upon themselves to now say, let me go and reverse merger or whatever you want to call it, redeploy that capital that was entrusted in me to develop a neuroscience drug. Let me go redeploy that capital to some company on my judgment that's going to be developing an antibiotic, something.
Well, the investors of the company, that's what they do. They're the ones who redeploy capital. So my point of view, if the company clearly has failed in its initial thrust, maybe the best thing to do is efficiently to return the money to the shareholders and let them decide where they should put it to work. But the key word is efficiently, not just waste time and have frictional expenses.
Yes. We're not, we're going to have to do something about -- small cap is now defined as anything under $1 billion. And we have 60% of our industry have market caps less than $100 million. And as you say, a bunch of them trading below cash. So somehow to get kind of mainstream and make this where the kind of the big guys can invest with this, we have to somehow figure out what to do with 60% of these companies that have market values of less than $100 million and where do they go?
It behooves the little companies, and I'm living with this with Jeremy, and I lived with this until 2 weeks ago, I was the Chairman of Regulus, and we were in that category for a very long time, and it's painful and it's dilutive. But if you've got something of interest, there are enough smart people in the investment community that will give you money. You may not like the price, they'll give you the money. And then at some point, you can get to a situation where it is not meaningful enough for other investors or pharma to step in and buy the company.
That's why I think family offices are going to play some role vis-a-vis the VCs going forward because their timelines are a lot different, intergenerational and they can live with that for an extra year if it takes an extra 3 years if it takes. For the venture guys, it's a little tough to provide.
Somebody who is living through this and is very proud of the company I lead with great issues. And I also deeply sympathize with many of my colleagues who've got nothing in their company. They've got cash, they were funded and now they have a problem. And that problem is that there's nothing of value in their companies, and that's not -- that is tragic. And that -- sometimes that's what happens with science. So I think there's a very -- there's an important point to make here that one needs to discriminate carefully and thoughtfully between those entities which have been depressed by market dynamics, nothing to do with them and those that have been depressed by virtue of the fact that there actually is very little in them. And I think to Stelios' point, Stelios' has governed companies far more than I have in many ways, and he's lived through this.
But in living through it myself, the one thing that you have to ask yourself repeatedly is, are you realistic? Do you see what you have in your product line is worthwhile? And if you do, how are you going to take it and convince investors that it's of value no matter what the market is saying. Good smart investors will listen to you and Stelios is right. You will get funded. Now there was a question in the chat room about synthetic royalties. That's one of the things you absolutely should be thinking about. There's another way of doing this. There are corporate deals that you can do that are nondilutive cash in pharmaceutical companies that actually are interested in what you're doing as opposed to an investor who wants to see a rapid return on their investment.
But none of these tools are available to all companies. If you don't have anything in your pipeline, you shouldn't be there. And then you should consider merging or giving back that in cash.
Yes. Gentlemen, we came up to the top of the hour. Thank you. Thank you so much for your time and listen, and we are very much indebted to you.
Thank you for your time.
Thanks.
Great idea to organize this. Thank you.
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Exelixis, Inc. — Lucid Capital Markets Investor Event
Exelixis, Inc. — Lucid Capital Markets Investor Event
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Takeaway: Gespräch betont einen langfristigen "Reset" im Biotech‑Ökosystem: weniger IPOs/VC, aber weiterhin aktive M&A. Strukturwandel (größere VC‑Runden, fewer early‑stage bets) verändert, wie Innovation entsteht und finanziert wird.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Kapitalmarkt: VC‑ und IPO‑Aktivität sind rückläufig; größere Fonds bevorzugen spätere, kapitalintensive Runden statt viele kleine Early‑Stage‑Wetten.
- Regulatorik: Unsicherheit bei FDA und mögliche Handels‑/Tarif‑Politik belasten Sentiment; politische Signale für nationale Biotech‑Strategien empfohlen.
- Fokusfelder: Chancen gesehen in Neuropsychiatrie (inkl. Psychedelika), Longevity und durch AI unterstützte Biologie‑Entdeckung.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Firmenspezifisch: Keine finanzielle Guidance oder Quartalszahlen vorgelegt; Diskussion lieferte strategische Einschätzungen, keine operativen Updates von Exelixis.
- Marktbeispiele: Panel nennt recent erzielte Deals (z.B. Assets mit hohen Upfront‑Zahlungen) als Indikator für anhaltende Käuferbereitschaft großer Pharmafirmen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Finanzierungswege: Wie finden Privatanleger/kleine Investoren Zugang zu Biotech‑Gewinnern? Panel empfiehlt professionelle Selektion oder Fonds‑Exposure.
- Regulatorik & Handel: MFN/Preispolitik und mögliche Tarife wurden als ernsthafte Unsicherheitsfaktoren diskutiert; Management wich teils in Politikempfehlungen aus.
- Technologische Hebel: Nachfrage nach Wirkung von AI auf Entdeckung, Trial‑Design und Effizienz; Interesse an Psychedelika/CNS wurde vertieft.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Für Aktionäre bedeutet das Panel: strukturelle Anpassung statt Crash—Selektive Investments in Firmen mit klaren, validierten Biologie‑Ansätzen oder kaufbaren Assets bleiben attraktiv; breite Exposure erfordert aktive Due‑Diligence oder Fonds‑Lösungen.
Finanzdaten von Exelixis, Inc.
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Mär '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 2.375 2.375 |
3 %
3 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 84 84 |
14 %
14 %
4 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 2.291 2.291 |
3 %
3 %
96 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 521 521 |
1 %
1 %
22 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | 813 813 |
9 %
9 %
34 %
|
|
| EBITDA | 965 965 |
14 %
14 %
41 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 29 29 |
4 %
4 %
1 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 937 937 |
15 %
15 %
39 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 833 833 |
29 %
29 %
35 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen USD.
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Exelixis, Inc. Aktie News
Firmenprofil
Exelixis, Inc. ist ein biopharmazeutisches Unternehmen, das sich mit der Entwicklung, Kommerzialisierung und Entdeckung neuer Medikamente für die Behandlung von Krebs beschäftigt. Es bietet Produkte unter den Marken Cometriq, Cabometyx und Cotellic an. Das Unternehmen wurde am 15. November 1994 von Corey S. Goodman und Stelios B. Papadopoulos gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Alameda, Kalifornien.
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| Hauptsitz | USA |
| CEO | Dr. Morrissey |
| Mitarbeiter | 1.077 |
| Gegründet | 1994 |
| Webseite | www.exelixis.com |


