Rocket Lab is upgraded to buy, following a sharp price retreat and opportunistic entry point ahead of Q4 earnings. Neutron rocket schedule setbacks persist, with the first launch now likely delayed to late 2026 or early 2027, raising execution risk. Valuation now shows around 3% upside for 2030, with shares still overvalued on near-term earnings but supported by long-term growth positioning.
The Neutron rocket can boost revenue and margins once it is commercialized later this year. Rocket Lab's backlog growth continues to surge as public and private sector customers secure orders in advance.
Rocket Lab provides launch services and space systems, while AST SpaceMobile aims to provide global connectivity through its satellite constellation. Rocket Lab is the second-most-used launch company in the U.S., with a $1 billion backlog.
Rocket Lab entered January riding high after securing an $816 million U.S. Space Force contract in December. Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to "Overweight" with a $105 price target, while Bank of America doubled its target to $120.
Rocket Lab is approaching Q4 earnings with strong recent execution, but the January Stage 1 tank rupture introduces high-probability schedule risk for Neutron's debut. Q4 revenue expectations look beatable because Neutron issues won't affect reported results, and Space Systems mix near 70% supports margin-driven EPS upside. The real risk is forward guidance: a Neutron delay could force long-tai...
SpaceX now has a potential $1.5 trillion IPO valuation targeted for mid-2026, an increase of nearly $700 billion in ~1 month. The valuation expansion is well supported by secular tailwinds, including a new Executive Order favor SPACE's commercialization of LEO and accelerated lunar projects. SpaceX is better positioned to capitalize on many of the space initiatives than RKLB, yet the valuation ...
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