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Blackstone Secured Lending and Morgan Stanley Direct Lending are high-quality BDCs facing potential dividend cuts due to falling coverage ratios. BXSL's fundamentals remain strong, but tight dividend coverage, high floating-rate exposure, and significant upcoming debt maturities raise concerns about a near-term cut. MSDL, despite robust liquidity and investment-grade ratings, has seen declining...
BDCs have already experienced a notable correction. The sector median P/NAV metric indicates ~12% discount to NAV. Many players are priced even below that.
14 BDCs have base dividend coverage levels between 100% and 105%. 16 BDCs have them already below 100%. Given the unfavorable future earnings outlook, a system-wide BDC dividend cutting process is very likely to start quite soon.
I expect the Fed to cut rates soon, with markets pricing in an 89% chance of a 25bps cut this month. Ongoing and future rate cuts will pressure SOFR-linked assets, especially BDCs, causing yield compression and likely dividend reductions. BDC dividend risks are high due to lower loan yields, thin dividend coverage, and limited capacity to offset falling income.
Oaktree Specialty Lending's weak net investment income coverage raises concerns about portfolio quality and future payouts. Non-accruals remain elevated, though slightly improved Q/Q in Q3'25, driving a persistent discount to net asset value and reflecting investor caution. Despite a material discount to NAV, weak dividend coverage and continual credit issues justify a downgrade from 'Strong Bu...
The BDC sector faces mounting risks from a weakening economy, high consumer debt, and the potential for further dividend cuts as interest rates decline. Recent dividend cuts by several BDCs highlight the sector's vulnerability, despite some names maintaining resilience and attractive valuations. Spillover income offers only limited protection; tight dividend coverage and rising non-accruals sig...
Q2 earnings confirmed my call for a market rotation in BDCs; quality bias and selectivity remain critical for outperformance. Structural headwinds—spread compression, falling base rates, and thin dividend coverage—signal elevated risk of further dividend cuts across the sector. Current sector repricing is insufficient for broad new BDC allocations; most remain unattractive except for select nam...
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