Natural gas strip prices for 2026 have gone down around $0.75 since late November/early December. This reduces Expand's projected 2026 free cash flow by approximately $1 billion, although this reduction would have been around $1.5 billion without hedges. Expand is still projected to generate around $2 billion in 2026 free cash flow at $3.35 to $3.40 natural gas.
Expand Energy Corporation looks good ending the year, growing net income by $613 million TTM vs prior TTM and increasing merger synergies by $200 million. Oil and gas seems promising for 2026 due to more supportive policies and increases in demand due to AI and data centers. Expand has been consolidating aggressively, acquiring ~82,500 net acres of value-accretive leasehold across Western Hayne...
Faced with excess supply that is likely to carry over into the new year, crude oil prices are likely to continue to struggle in 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the supply glut to persist through 2026, which should, in turn, put downward pressure on oil prices—crude oil could fall to $55 per barrel on average for the first quarter.
Energy badly lagged this year, and I underestimated how severe the supply glut would be. I was early - but the long-term thesis remains firmly intact. Today's oil prices aren't sustainable. Low prices are forcing discipline, squeezing supply, and creating a rare setup where sentiment and fundamentals are deeply misaligned. With positioning extremely bearish and costs rising, I see energy settin...
PGIM Jennison Natural Resources Fund generated a strong return and outperformed its Lipper Global Natural Resources Index benchmark for the quarter. Key contributors include Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Hudbay Minerals (HBM), and Eldorado Gold (EGO). Key detractors include EQT Corp (EQT), Expand Energy Corporation (EXE), and ARC Resources (AETUF).
Investors face two disruptive phases: AI-driven labor market weakness, followed by new industry emergence, requiring strategic portfolio diversification. Favor high-quality stocks and income-generating assets, focusing beyond S&P 500 index funds to outperform in a potentially lower-return market environment. Key opportunities include stock exchanges (CME, ICE, MIAX), cyclical value (railroads, ...
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