CSX Corporation delivered a flat Q4 and 2025, with revenue at $3.51B and subdued growth outlook. Management projects 200–300bps operating margin expansion and over 50% free cash flow growth in 2026, driven by cost discipline. Intermodal is expected to offset weak segments, delivering mid-single-digit growth amid soft macro conditions and persistent headwinds.
The railroad operator was driven by lower merchandise volume and export coal revenue, which offset increases in merchandise and intermodal prices, intermodal volume and fuel surcharge revenue.
JACKSONVILLE, Fla., Jan. 22, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CSX Corp. (NASDAQ: CSX) today announced fourth quarter 2025 operating income of $1.11 billion and net earnings of $720 million, or $0.39 per share. Fourth quarter operating income and earnings per share include approximately $50 million and $0.02, respectively, in expenses related to severance and rationalization of specific technology inves...
CSX's Q4 is expected to be soft on volumes and EPS, yet its 2026 has easy comps, improving service metrics, and a clear path to margin expansion. AAR data show coal and some minerals holding up, while chemicals, forest products, and automotive remain weak. Intermodal is growing faster than the industry, but at lower margins. The partnership with BNSF is key to forecasting how 2026 could play out.
The market appears expensive, with historical precedent for long periods of low returns after peaks. Consensus expects 15% S&P 500 earnings growth and rising margins, driven by AI innovation, supporting a steady long-term outlook. Analyst forecasts for 2026 should be viewed skeptically, as actual outcomes often diverge from consensus projections.
The Merger Fund® achieved 1.92% in 3Q 2025, contributing to a year-to-date performance of 6.86%. Chevron Corporation's $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corporation completed on July 18. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission cleared the $35.9 billion Mars-Kellanova acquisition on June 25, without conditions, securing 27 of 28 required regulatory approvals.
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