tonies Aktienkurs
Insights zu tonies
Insights
Mit KI besser investieren
aktien.guide Unlimited – alle Details der KI-Analysen
👉 Detailliertere Insights
👉 Exklusive Einblicke in Chancen & Risiken
👉 Klare Antworten auf deine Fragen
Mit KI besser investieren
aktien.guide Unlimited – alle Details der KI-Analysen
👉 Detailliertere Insights
👉 Exklusive Einblicke in Chancen & Risiken
👉 Klare Antworten auf deine Fragen
Mit KI besser investieren
aktien.guide Unlimited – alle Details der KI-Analysen
👉 Detailliertere Insights
👉 Exklusive Einblicke in Chancen & Risiken
👉 Klare Antworten auf deine Fragen
Mit KI besser investieren
aktien.guide Unlimited – alle Details der KI-Analysen
👉 Detailliertere Insights
👉 Exklusive Einblicke in Chancen & Risiken
👉 Klare Antworten auf deine Fragen
Ist tonies eine Topscorer-Aktie nach der Dividenden-, High-Growth-Investing- oder Levermann-Strategie?
Als kostenloser aktien.guide Basis-Nutzer kannst Du die Scores zu allen 7.923 weltweiten Aktien einsehen.
aktien.guide Premium
aktien.guide Unlimited
Kennzahlen
📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 1,60 Mrd. € | Umsatz (TTM) = 630,35 Mio. €
Marktkapitalisierung = 1,60 Mrd. € | Umsatz erwartet = 793,48 Mio. €
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 1,55 Mrd. € | Umsatz (TTM) = 630,35 Mio. €
Enterprise Value = 1,55 Mrd. € | Umsatz erwartet = 793,48 Mio. €
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
tonies Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
14 Analysten haben eine tonies Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
14 Analysten haben eine tonies Prognose abgegeben:
Beta tonies Events
🇩🇪 Neu: Alle Transkripte jetzt auch auf Deutsch verfügbar!
Abonniere Premium, um Transkripte und KI-Zusammenfassungen auf Deutsch zu lesen.
Vergangene Events
|
JUN
18
Analyst/Investor Day - tonies SE
vor 14 Tagen
|
|
MAI
13
Q1 2026 Earnings Call
vor etwa 2 Monaten
|
|
APR
14
Q4 2025 Earnings Call
vor 3 Monaten
|
|
NOV
13
Q3 2025 Earnings Call
vor 8 Monaten
|
|
AUG
21
Q2 2025 Earnings Call
vor 11 Monaten
|
aktien.guide Basis
tonies — Analyst/Investor Day - tonies SE
1. Management Discussion
Good morning and a very warm welcome to everyone joining online, but especially to those here at The Smith Center inside the Science Museum in London. It's fantastic to meet existing and new investors here in person. As you probably already saw in your goodie bag, this isn't the first time we are working together with the Science Museum. Thank you for having us. My name is Moritz, and as Head of Investor Relations, I'm honored to lead you through the day.
Let's now have a look at the agenda. Today is all about the next chapter of the tonies story. We are going to show you exactly how we are moving from being a category creator to becoming a truly global icon. And for that, I'm excited that we have the full Management Board together on stage for the very first time. Over the next few hours, we will deep dive into the tonies experience, show you how we are scaling our growth engine, particularly with our U.S. first strategy and demonstrate the resilience of our financial model that ensures we keep delivering on our promises. Before we kick off with the presentations, just a few quick housekeeping points to ensure a smooth day.
First, please take a moment to switch your phones to silent. During the breaks and the product exhibition, there will be enough sounds to make your day. Second, our lawyers have told me to point you to the closest fire exits here to the left as well as in the back. In case of a fire alarm, please follow the instructions accordingly. Finally, we have a dedicated Q&A session for those that are here in the room scheduled for 1:15 local time, 2:15 Central European time, which will also be streamed online. So please hold your major questions until then. During our working lunch and after the closing remarks, we have set up a product exhibition, so you will have plenty of time to play around and chat with the management team. And now let's kick the day off.
[Presentation]
Good morning. Welcome to our very first Capital Market Day's here at tonies. I'm Tobias Wann. I've been the CEO of tonies for the last 2.5 years. So why a Capital Market Day? Why now? About 10 years ago, our very first Toniebox launched in Germany. After our 2 founders, where actually one of them is here today in the room, Patric Faßbender. Welcome, Patric. Great to have you here, spent 3 years developing it. About 5 years ago, tonies IPO-ed at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. This was the last time we prepared a midterm outlook for you. Since then, a lot has changed and a lot will change in the next 3 to 5 years. This is why we are here today. For the next 45 minutes, I want to tell you what you can expect from tonies and what it means for what comes next, how we move from a category creator to a true global icon.
But before I tell you anything about our markets, our financials, our strategy, I want to start somewhere else with a child. Imagine her 4 years old on the floor of her bedroom at the end of a long day. What she needs most is to feel safe, to listen, to explore, to invent stories in her own mind, to be in her own world on her own terms. Now imagine her parents in the next room, proud of her curiosity, wanting her to grow but also tired, juggling work, dinner, screens everywhere, the constant negotiation of just one more video. Both have very real, very human needs. She needs security, imagination, a sense of agency over her own world. Her parents need peace of mind to know what's in her hands is safe, age-appropriate and genuinely good for her. And nowadays, meeting both of those needs at once has become a lot harder.
Childhood is changing. It's all over the news these days, and it's increasingly shaped by passive algorithm-driven screen-based content. Parents can see it. Researchers can see it. And now governments are actually acting on it. The headlines are up here. Screen time is among the top parental health concerns, phone bans spreading through schools worldwide, the anxious generation entering the mainstream. Parents aren't looking to ban technology. They are looking for an alternative, something that gives their child genuine agency and gives them a genuine peace of mind. That space between what a child needs and what a parent can trust is exactly where tonies lives.
More than 12 million Tonieboxes have made it into family's lives. Yes, 12 million. Over the last 10 years, we built something that had never existed before, the world's largest interactive audio platform for children. Ears first by design. Why ears first? Because imagination starts with the ears, not the eyes. When a child hears a story without a screen in front of them, they are not passive. They are building the world in their own mind, the director, the set designer, the main character, all at once. We call this magic, not machinery, exploration, not consumption. The child is in control of the experience. A child picks up a Tonie, places it on the box and hears their favorite story begin, a small act of choice that opens a whole new world for them. They did that. Not an algorithm, not a recommendation engine, not a parent deciding for them. And on the other side of that choice is imagination, discovery, learning play.
A Tonie picked up at the age of 2 leads to a different one at the age of 4 and another one at 7. Children grow with us. not out of us. That's why families stay with us for years and not weeks. And building a company that makes that possible, that is the mission we all signed up for when we joined tonies. Let me briefly introduce the incredible team that drives it day-to-day and that is here today to talk it through with you. First of all, Ginny McCormick, our Chief Experience Officer, a highly experienced industry leader who spent many years at Hasbro and Amazon and joined us about 2 years ago. Chief Experience Officer. I know this needs explanation. Her role uniquely combines experience. That is what tonies is all about. In our case, that means marketing, product and content. And Ginny in those 2 years has already delivered exceptional results. Just think of the launch of the beautiful Toniebox 2 last year.
Christoph Frehsee, our Chief Revenue Officer. He built our U.S. business from 0 to over $300 million in just a few years. His entrepreneurial perspective is invaluable to our growth story. Both Ginny and Christoph are actually based out of the U.S. And as you will hear in the next few hours, that is not coincidental. And then, of course, Hansjorg Muller, our Chief Financial Officer, who joined us with deep experience in subscription, platform and digital models, thanks to his prior roles at Netflix and Electronic Arts. And he has clearly also a strong track record of driving profitable growth.
Behind the 4 of us stand over 600 tonies, as we call them, the people who actually make the magic around the world. Now before all the 3 take you through their details, I want to give you my perspective of the future ahead of us. Let me start with the business model. tonies is a great business model because families join an ecosystem and because our product delivers for them over the course of multiple years again and again, tonies is built on subscription-like economics. Now how does this work? It all starts with the box. As I said, more than 12 million to date. And a box is always just the start of the beginning -- the beginning of the relationship. With each box come 20 Tonie Figurine purchases over the first 4.5 years, picked from over 1,500 tonies, 3,500 digital titles and more than 350 licensing partners. Many families stay with us much longer.
Actually, many of the first Tonie boxes sold in 2016 are still in use today after 10 years. We also leverage our own IP, and there's more from digital offers to accessories like headphones. Very important for you to take home. We don't sell a product once. We earn a place in a family's routine and the relationship compounds from there. And the market is noticing. We are the recognized leader across toy in all our markets, and that's what Circana says, the gold standard for tracking retail consumer spend.
We are growing faster than any other preschool brand in the U.S., Germany, U.K., France, both for the full year of 2025 and again in the first quarter of 2026, all 4 markets simultaneously. And today, we are already the #1 preschool brand in Germany, the U.K. and in France. And as of the last quarter, Q1, also #2 in the U.S. Australia and New Zealand is not on the slide here, but it's the same pattern. We are the fastest growing. And also after just 1.5 years after the launch, we are the #1 property in preschool toys in the first quarter of 2026 in Australia. This is what just a few years of execution look like. The U.S. launched just 5 years ago. And as you can see, the pace at which we grow is still leading the industry today. Again, this is independent third-party data. These are not our numbers, their numbers.
And yes, in some ways, we are a toy. We spark joy in children's lives. We enable their development. We are part of how they play. But let me be clear, when you look at us only as a toy, you are thinking incorrectly about our category. tonies is a category creator, sitting at the intersection of several markets. Toy, education, technology, gaming, media streaming, we don't grow with the market. We take share across all of them. This is the pattern actually you hear again and again throughout the day. In each of these markets, we can deliver unique experiences. But what's more, we have parents trust. Trust in the tonies brand is the success factor that let us play across them.
Our product, as you know, is tactile first and highly durable. Some of you actually know what I usually do to demonstrate that. And funnily enough, most recently, even the German newspapers wrote an article about it. I usually take this box, throw it against the wall, it will still work. I promise I don't do this here today. So you're safe. But now here's where it gets interesting. We combine that with subscription-like economics like in media and like in tech. That combination is genuinely rare. And think of the opportunity we have in horizons. The opportunity overall is massive.
As our product world expands, market opportunities, they stack on top of each other. We keep driving further addressable space, our early core, our current expansion trajectory and further potential beyond that. Each of these horizons, larger than EUR 100 billion, spending toy and technology where we started, now gaming and education, think of Tonieplay or our Book and Pocket Tonies, those are the nonfictional tonies for kids already in school to media streaming for kids, not too far away probably. This is the total addressable space, and we will grow into this with time.
The scale we've reached today means we are already a through line running through childhood for an entire generation. You know these stats, and I get never tired of telling them. More than 12 million Tonieboxes in homes around the world, more than 165 million tonies, the figurines. And the average child spends around 280 minutes a week with their Toniebox. That's close to 5 hours of active screen-free engagement.
Now here's a way to look at those 280 minutes that we report every quarter. It's roughly about 7% of a young child's entire awake time. So the box is not a device used occasionally. This is what it means to be part of the child's daily rhythm, wake-up, play, bedtime. And there's still lots of space for us to grow into. What's most important, I think, to all of us here, every additional minute we earn is a minute more of imagination is a minute less of passive consumption.
Shortly after I joined tonies, I formulated a vision for us to become a global icon. And I made a commitment, pick a small number of priorities that can get us there and then stick to them. Today's, those priorities define what we do and just as importantly, they define what we do not do. There are 3: first, build an ecosystem that compounds value; second, win internationally, U.S. first; and third, extend our story of reliable, profitable growth. One strategy executed across 3 fronts. And today, you will hear from the 3 people here responsible for each one of them. Ginny on building an ecosystem that compounds, Christoph on winning internationally, U.S. first and Hansjorg on extending our story of reliable, profitable growth. It's no coincidence that these priorities are also the 3 elements of how we run through the day-to-day.
But before they take the stage, let me give you my CEO view first. Starting with how we are shaping the future of childhood by building an ecosystem that compounds value. The thought I want you to take from this chapter above all else, you are looking at an ecosystem business. This is not just about the box. It's about building a self-compounding system. At the heart of this ecosystem, the device, clearly, around it and above-the-box content portfolio, the tonies themselves. I'll show a bit more in a few seconds. Beyond that, accessories and wrapping all of it, the digital experience through our app. No single layer alone creates the value. It's created in the interaction between them. Content drives engagement. Engagement drives habit. Habit drives repeat participation and the ecosystem grows household lifetime value over time.
The discipline I apply is simple. Everything we build must fit and compound within this ecosystem. So to start with, we've been steadily extending that above-the-box portfolio I mentioned year after year. Think of these as differentiating a child's engagement. We are building breadth so we can be more tailored for different ages and for different use cases. We have Book and Pocket Tonies offering nonfictional content for older children. My First Tonies for the very youngest. From the Classic Tonies right from the start in 2016 to Pocket Tonies in '23, Book Tonies in '24, My First Tonies and Tonieplay as major innovations around the Toniebox 2 launch in 2025 to now Cuddle Tonies, our newest addition this year.
Each new format means a new way into the ecosystem and a new reason for a family to stay longer. Like with any ecosystem, we are backwards compatible. A family that enters early doesn't exit when their child grows. The ecosystem grows with them and so does lifetime value. And of course, there's much more to come. A key part of this ecosystem is content, the heroes of their childhood. They are all here in one ecosystem. BLUEY, you heard it yesterday. We just launched now exclusive to the Toniebox, a major driver of acquisition and retention this year and for the years to come.
But there's so much more. Pikachu, Mickey, Peppa, Chase, we have Minecraft and Hot Wheels. It's important for me to say we are not distributors of that content. We invented a completely new way for kids to interact with these characters. Let me show you in one picture. Here, you see the sheer breadth. Make a count, it's about 70 tonies on one slide, but that's less than 5% of the current portfolio. Think about what this means. A child can access all of those with just one platform. When you want to watch your favorite TV show, where do you go? There's so many different offerings. It's fragmented, right? The tonies platform, however, is not.
Now, let's move on to our device strategy. You've heard us, me say device all the way through these presentations in the past today. And then we launched the upgrade of our wonderful Toniebox from 2016, the Toniebox 2 in 2025, an even better device than we had ever before. But the truth is, and I realized this when I joined, if you want a real ecosystem, we should ultimately no longer think in terms of one device. And therefore, let me say this is my personal one more thing moment of this presentation. In the future, we'll say devices, plural. I'm proud to announce that this year, we will launch Toniebox Lite. Here it is.
The Toniebox Lite brings what a Toniebox is supposed to. The listening experience that makes Tonie special to more families, an accessible entry point launching in selected markets later this year and sitting next to our flagship product, Toniebox 2 on shelves. Whatever the device, the tonies promise doesn't change. You can expect independent intuitive listening, extensive content for every age and interest, a tactile experience and a parental peace of mind. Those 4 things are foundational. They are nonnegotiable. They are the defining features of a Toniebox. Now what a Toniebox Lite adds is, first, addressable market expansion. This is about accessibility. Toniebox Lite will help us lower the barrier to entry into the ecosystem.
Second, we have a more compact design, as you can see. The Toniebox Lite is a companion at home and beyond on family vacation and on the go. And third, we'll see an uptake in multi-device ownership. tonies families adding devices for siblings or secondary locations for grandma's house or the living room. Same promise, just made to a larger group of people. It means more families earlier and more devices per family. And that is as far as we will go today here.
Now I know you have many questions. I tell you in only a few weeks, we will release further details on Toniebox Lite. And as you will be introduced to the product in more depth, the strategy, the specs, the commercial details. Our half year earnings call on August 20 will provide an ideal opportunity for us to answer all those questions you have. So while we will not take questions on Toniebox Lite today, I'm sorry, let's say it's worthwhile to stay tuned for our next investor interactions in the second half of the year.
Now here comes the second priority, win internationally, U.S. first. Before I talk about new markets, one thing has to be clear. Growth is not just a game of new markets. We still have a long way to go in the markets we already serve. Take the U.S., for example, North America. Even there, with all the market-leading success, only around 12% of relevant households have a Toniebox today, 12%. So we are winning the market, and we've still reached just a bit more than 1 household in 10.
Now imagine a world where that gets closer to 58%. That's the number we have already reached in DACH, so Germany, Austria, Switzerland. And even there, in DACH, where we are long established since 2016, our ecosystem economics give us tailwinds. We are still growing. Plus 5% in '22 and '23, then plus 11% in '24 and now plus 16% in '25, and we are not done. As I said, Pocket Tonies, Book Tonies, Toniebox 2, Tonieplay, all these new product formats with more potential right in front of them.
Our first global campaign, new channels, meeting parents where they shop with sales campaigns on TikTok and now entry into the grocery segment. Now if you've been paying attention during our Q1 call earlier this year, the first quarter in 2026, up 28% year-on-year DACH. That reconfirms our momentum. Established markets keep growing when the ecosystem keeps expanding. And beyond DACH and North America, the rest of world, as we call it, the markets we are already in are still growing rapidly. That's 100% CAGR on a multiyear basis. Each market layers in as it launches. This is what disciplined international expansion looks like, every region growing. They don't substitute. They're additive. But of course, with all the room to grow, still this market view would feel pretty incomplete without looking at the world still out there.
Something I said many, many times. Today, we are activated in more than 100 countries. Now contrast that with our current core markets, DACH, North America, U.K., Ireland, France, Australia and New Zealand. In all these other markets, we never ran a campaign. We never set up a local team. We never signed a single retailer. Families found us anyway. That is what I call global product market fit. Now there are more than 570 million households with children in our core age range, 570 million. A very, very large part of that is the world still in front of us. So a fair question you ask now and actually many of you did in the past, if you have so much demand across the globe, why do you not go there? Why not go to Europe? I mean we are already established in several European markets and expanding it into more lets us step into real synergies into our operations, channel partnerships, the infrastructure we already built. And of course, an existing category and a category we actually created.
Then some asked for Latin America. They see the potential to scale across 2 large language groups, Spanish and Portuguese. It's just one localization effort and that opens up many markets. Lastly, Asia, enormous number, enormous number of households and strongly digital mobile-first parents with a very strong appetite for premium trusted brands. The honest answer is we will, but on our own terms. For 2 years, we were very deliberate, device innovation and winning the U.S. Now we rebalance that focus towards international growth again. So here's another moment that makes me genuinely excited. I'm proud to announce that by the end of 2027, we plan to launch at least 2 new international markets. This is what our global product market fit allows us to do and what we intend to use throughout the years to come. And then our clear ambition, we want to be in all major regions by 2030.
That brings me to my last topic, our story of reliable profitable growth and how all of this translates into a midterm financial ambition. Hansjorg will take you deep into financials after lunch. I want to spend just a few minutes on how I think about tonies financial path forward. Well, let's start with the past. We continuously delivered. 5 years since IPO, 5 years of delivery. Every year, guidance met or exceeded from more than EUR 250 million in 2021 to EUR 630 million in 2025. And I can tell you, this was not always easy. 2021 was still mid COVID, who remembers, with the consumer confidence crisis that came with it. And in that same year, we ran our very first full year of U.S. operations and launched France.
Last year, it was tariffs, and we mastered them, shifting production to Vietnam in record times, finding the right commercial response working closely with our partners. 5 years, 5 deliveries, no exception. And the present continues that line. In 2025, we delivered EUR 630 million in group revenue at an 8.6% adjusted EBITDA margin. For 2026, I want to reiterate our guidance here loud and clear. More than EUR 760 million in group revenue, over 20% growth year-on-year. North America, up more than 30% and a 9% to 11% adjusted EBITDA margin.
And what's even better about that continuous delivery? It's structural. Every box that enters our ecosystem needs to 20-plus tonies over its lifetime. That's an observed behavior across all cohorts we've ever acquired in every market. More than 60% of the lifetime value of the cohorts we have acquired since 2020 is still in front of us. It's simply the future purchases from boxes already in homes today. On this slide, you're looking at a $1 billion business. One could say quasi-banked.
Before I close, one question I know is on your minds, and you probably want to hear from me, artificial intelligence. I tell you it's on ours, too, and I want to be clear how we think about it. It's not hard to find a newspaper headline these days along the lines of those that you can read here. AI productivity is about to become visible and investable, and it will divide the best from the rest. We, here at tonies, intend to be among the best.
First, AI is a structural tailwind, and we are capturing it already today across the value chain from supply chain to marketing to sales, to customer happiness and product management. And honestly, I'm personally always impressed to see this myself at tonies. It's one thing to hear from someone what AI can do now. It's another thing to see how we put it to work every single day. Just another day, we had a launch assessment for a new product line, dealing with this new data, some tweaks and twists to handle, we estimated would have meant normally a week for a data analyst, maybe a bit more to put this together. We stitched together Claude and Snowflake, and we did it, I was in the room. We did this in 30 minutes. So not days, half an hour. I considered a CEO task my CEO task to empower our tonies employees in such ways constantly.
Another example, and you can check this one out for yourself, if you want. We launched an AI chatbot in several markets the other week. The results are quite honestly hard to believe, even for me. One market got an 80% automated resolution rate in the very first week, and our customers are loving it. This is happening now. We are a dynamic, innovative company. We pursued profitable growth for a decade now. We constantly upgrade. AI is just another page in that playbook.
Now if you look at how parents, our customers are actually thinking about AI, there's a real reason to be bullish. Most parents believe AI will be crucial to their child's career, and I'm sure many of you in this room can relate to this. They see it as beneficial in education. They want their kids to be prepared. Around 2/3 of moms are actually already using AI themselves for parenting tips and recommendations. Parents see the opportunity. They understand that AI is going to fundamentally transform how their kids live as adults, and they want them to be ready for it.
But -- and here's where it gets interesting. At the same time, parents are deeply worried. More than 2/3 fear it could hurt their child's creativity. Around 3/4 worry an AI toy might say something inappropriate, untrue or unsafe. And most parents want stricter guardrails on AI for kids today. So here's the tension. Parents want their kids to benefit from AI, but they are not willing to sacrifice trust to get there. And that's exactly the space we are built for. That tension between the momentum behind AI, the good and rightful fear of parents of the risk for their children is actually an incredible business opportunity.
Figuring that out, contributing to the resolution of that tension is, of course, extremely hard. But here, we are here at tonies set up for the challenge. Parental trust is what we've spent more than a decade earning. We can build on that. And we are already at the forefront of the AI opportunity. You know we have a strong innovation pipeline and our efforts to build AI into our business are scaling up today. That is what gives me confidence that AI is an opportunity that we have and should take, all while preserving that unique edge of magic and of sparking joy and imagination.
So now where does all of this leave the future? It's clear to me our profitable growth story continues. Today, in 2025, EUR 630 million top line, 8.6% adjusted EBITDA margin. That's the starting point. In the midterm, we target more than EUR 1.4 billion in net revenue at a 16% to 18% adjusted EBITDA margin. As we will hopefully convey clearly to you today, there's a clear plan behind this, built on priorities and runways. Over the past years, we promised you to reach our financial targets, more than EUR 250 million in 2021, more than EUR 630 million in 2025. We delivered continuously over and over again. Today, we are reaching for more than EUR 1.4 billion, and we are confident to deliver it again. EUR 1.4 billion. But here's the thing. What we are doing at tonies is much more than a number on the P&L, more than a revenue line or a margin. It's much more. It is building a true global icon. Think about what a global icon is. We basically covered it all today. It resolves the tension no one else has solved.
For us here at tonies, that means we give children agency, imagination and joy while giving parents trust and peace of mind. A global icon earns its place and emotional connection in key life moments. Your very first device, the one you still remember when you have children of your own. And the global icon scales across formats, markets and generations without ever losing its purpose or meaning. That is exactly the company we are building. With that, welcome to the rest of the day. My colleagues will take you through all the details. For those of you who are here in person in the room, we will have time to talk and walk through the immersive experience we've set up. For everyone on the screens and obviously, for everyone in the room, there will be a structured Q&A at the end. Now please join me in welcoming Ginny, our Chief Experience Officer, on stage.
Thank you, Tobias. Hello, everyone. One more time. Hello. All right. For more than 25 years, I've been helping companies understand and serve families around the world. Backed last night after the game, I did a bit of an audit. I've worked on brands that have endured for over 90 years and some that have only survived for a few. And in that work, I start to understand patterns. What's truly differentiated? What stays with families, as Tobias said, generation after generation. And that's why I'm so excited to be at tonies. tonies is one of those rare brands. And I'm going to share with you now how we're shaping the future of childhood.
So in our time together, we're going to cover 3 things. First, why are we uniquely positioned to win in this change with how parents think about entertainment and education for their children. How we are building differentiated content with tonies Studio and our proprietary data and how we're engineering the ecosystem to stay with families for long-term engagement. So let's jump in or as we say at tonies ears up. There is a broader culture shift happening about parenthood. And this presents a new paradox for parents. Their children have more access to content and technology than ever before, and it's exponentially growing every day. And for parents, they are torn. Of course, they want this child to be curious, independent, engage with the world around them. But at the same time, every parent knows your #1 job is to protect that child. And they know they now need to protect against technology. Why? Well, this is the first generation of parents who grew up surrounded by social media, constant connectivity with their phones, algorithmic feeds, and they know firsthand the positives and the negative consequences.
Many are conflicted about their own relationship with technology, and they are stopping and pausing before they give that technology to a child whose brain is literally still forming. And this experience is amplified in culture and now validated in research. Unlike 5 or 3 years ago, now there is tremendous research showing the impact of technology and screens, especially on early children in their cognitive, social and emotional skills. The research continues to evolve, but the verdict is absolutely clear. Excessive exposure to screens in the early years has developmental trade-offs. And that's why the conversation has shifted from families and schools to a matter of public health, national policies. Over 40 countries are drafting or have already implemented technology limiting access to children. The U.K. had an announcement today. We also saw big shifts. Sweden, who was an early adopter of screens in schools, reversed their position last week. And this is not a trend. This is now because of the research and established fact about child development.
Over 10 years ago, tonies pioneered the need for something different for families. It was designed around a powerful belief that children should, of course, have technology and content, but it absolutely has to be delivered in a way that supports their development. I'm excited to share with you today, we are announcing the tonies Advisory Group. Now this is a group of experts from around the globe, neuroscientists, educators, psychologists, all who understand what is happening in these trends. They have agreed to share their research and their expertise directly with our teams. This Board understands the importance of audio. It's something many of us take for granted but audio unlike anything else in early childhood is impactful. It literally build your brain through this active engagement. Now I am not a scientist so rather than hear it from me, I thought you may like to hear from some of our experts.
[Presentation]
So this commitment to research is not new. In fact, for the past 3 years, we've been working to do independent research with leading universities. And we've been doing this both in the U.S. and in Europe. Let's look at the results. This is what independent research says about the impact of having a Toniebox in your household. These are huge shifts, 53% increase in a child's attention. 66% improvement in vocabulary and most significantly, a 25% drop in excessive screen time when tonies is in the home. The research validates what families have been telling us for years. Tonieboxes improve their children. They improve everyday family life. They add tremendous value.
Now let's move to our second chapter. Let's talk about content. Content continues to be one of tonies strengths and most difficult to replicate tools. This isn't because of the depth of our portfolio, although it is deep, but it's also because our experiences are differentiated. And as we just heard, audio content meets families in a way that traditional media, movies, entertainment often does not. Now our ecosystem at tonies is based on a very simple insight. A child's relationship with audio evolves as they grow. At tonies, we do not believe in one childhood. We don't believe in one audio. There's different ages, there's different stages, there's different moments. And that's why we've developed our ecosystem.
Now of course, we all know tonies is more than audio. These amazing figurines and our cuddly plush are tactile, right, because that's a key part of how children learn, especially in those little ears. But let's talk about audio for a minute because it gives us a very clear lens to see changes in behaviors, interest and independence. So let's start with our youngest listeners. Those early sounds, those da-da become dada, become words, become dada I love you, and that fuels the family. They understand action and reaction through audio. And of course, it's a soothing tool. It gives them emotional regulations at the moments they often need the most.
When children grow 4 to 6, this is the age of their independence. They're choosing their audio. They're creating routines on how they use audio in their everyday life. And this is the age of imagination and discovery. It's the age of questions. When, where? Why? Why? Why? No why, why? This is what happens. Audio brings that to life. And this is how they bond as family, music, stories. Children grow up, they become more complex. Of course, they can handle more depth in their content, more logic, more rationale, more emotional topics. But they also are looking for interactivity. They want to choose. They want content that connects them with their social environment, which is surging at this point. And this is the phase that they start creation. So all these insights have been operationalized in our ecosystem.
And as you can see, we move families from the very first My First Tonies, all the way up to our older content. And what's really critical for you to understand is we never lose connection with the family. We continue to deepen trust year after year product after product. Now all of this amazing content is powered by tonies Studio. As you know, global entertainment brands have their own internal studios, so do we.
tonies Studio is our creative engine. It's where we bring together our expertise in storytelling, child development and ears first audio. This team is amazing, combinations of producers, script writers, musician, audio experts, and we work with a diverse network of partners from ideation to the final production. This team obsesses over details many of you may not initially recognize when you're listening to the audio. You want some examples. How many words per minute can a 2-year-old handle? What's the right way to build suspense that's exciting but not scary for a 7-year-old. These are the expertise that we have in our studio. And this is why regardless of the age or the stage, our tonies products have the highest quality bar, and that deepens families' trust and has them come back purchase after purchase.
Speaking of trust, we have the trust of over 350 partners who have chosen tonies to extend their brand. Now we are not simply another licensee or a distribution outlet. But for partners like Disney, Hasbro, Paramount, we're a translator of their beloved brand. And this has shifted over the years. Initially, we were working with existing stories. But now these partners see us as a true creative partner. We take their IPs and create bespoke in-character stories, things that you cannot find anywhere else.
The reason we can do this is because we have earned this trust after years and years of high-quality reviews, consistent execution and of course, the consumers' response, an average of 4.7 stars on tonies and the sound we love most, the repeat plays day after day. This trust creates a flywheel. When parents are making choices, some of these partners immediately signal safety to them, quality and of course, the brands their children know and love. And as we bring more families into our ecosystem, we have broader reach and deepening engagement, and that is incredibly valuable to these partners. So this wheel connects, and it's very difficult for anyone else to disrupt, which is why this partner chose to launch exclusively on tonies.
Pokémon, #1 global toy property for 4 years. It's a phenomenon. Why? Well, it's equally appealing to children and the parents who grew up with this decades and decades ago. It has cultural scale, nostalgia and enduring fandom. This is the type of partner that can immediately extend our reach and also serves everyone who's in our ecosystem. Now again, when we worked with Pokémon, they have a deep canon of stories, of course, but we're not using their stories. They entrusted tonies Studio to create exclusive content based on their characters. I'm super proud of this work. I had to beg for a sneak peek. So for your ears only...
[Presentation]
We are so excited. Obviously, Pokémon fuels collectability, and we can see this influencing the tonies ecosystem. Also, Pokémon has a wild fan community. So I was thrilled to see their response. Across Reddit, fan forums, you see this comment over and over and over again. I don't even have a child, and I cannot wait to buy these Pokémon tonies.
Now let's talk about a capability that I think at tonies often is misunderstood by people from the outside. Many companies talk about content, right? And they talk about a library. At tonies for us, content is a system. It's one that continuously improves with every listen. Of course, we have sales data and we have download data, but we have much more. We understand how families use our product. We understand when they put a Tonie on the box, when they take it off, when they repeat it, what time of day they're listening, how routines form. And of course, this data is all captured within local guidelines. But with over 165 million tonies sold, that's a lot of data to learn from. And we put that in practice.
So let me give you a very simple example. When we initially launched our PAW Patrol Tonies, we were working with Paramount and their existing stories. And we saw how children put them on when they listened, how often they came back. And then we compared it to other content within our portfolio for the age. And then when it came time to introduce new PAW Patrols based on the new season, we made many improvements. We shifted to add more character voices. We added sound in moments where the story was falling off and not holding children's engagement. We increased audio effects to make moments more dramatic as they imagined. And now these are some of our top performers. So our moat isn't a single title. It's not an individual franchise, but it's our listening and learning system that only tonies has.
Now let me tell you a story of a brand. It started with a single Tonie, but it became a beloved tradition for families. Using our data, we saw that box usage spiked in evenings as families were putting children to bed. And they were using all kinds of tonies, some maybe not for the sweetest dreams, maybe some a little more exciting. So we saw the opportunity, and that's what led us to create Sleepy Friends. This is our unique approach to bedtime rituals. It has calm characters, soothing stories and soundscapes that lull you into the sweetest dreams. And we know that because in over 3 million families, this is their nightly tradition.
Sleepy Friends, though, is now moving beyond the box. We are partnering with Carlsen, a leading German publisher, to launch a series of books next year. Of course, this will expand our retail presence. We will be beyond the tonies aisle and into books. We'll launch with over 3,500 bookstores in Germany. And this will be a tool to introduce new families to Sleepy Friends, but also tonies. But the headline I want you to take away is this is a signal of our future. Not only will tonies be the destination for great childhood brands, we will also be the creator. We will move from licensee to licensor, and this is just the beginning.
Now our third section and most critical, how families stay. Why do they continue to age with tonies? Now in other children's brands, especially those I've been part of, they have a unique structural challenge. They focus on segments like infant or preschool, and that means growth requires constantly acquiring new households, younger children. That's not a barrier for tonies. And in this chart, you can see how households evolve with us. My First Tonies, our first listening experience, is 80% activated in households with children under the age of 2. That gives us the opportunity to introduce them and create these listening rituals. As children age, you see Classic Tonies. It serves our youngest ages, but also ages up with the child in our figurines. Tonieplay, which we were very proud to launch last year, has been activated in households with children 3 to 4, 40% of the time. And book and pocket continue to age up as you see children grow with tonies. So as you can see, the family stays with us. We do not lose.
Now that we've talked about how we grow within an age, let's talk about something equally important. How do we deepen engagement at each age? Well, I'm going to share with you 4 mechanisms that we've established across the portfolio. First is relevance. Kids, just like adults are trend-driven. They know when something is hot and when it's growing. And that's why at tonies, we stay very close to kids culture and evaluating emerging trends. A great example of this is Ms. Rachel. For those of you who do not know her, she is YouTube's favorite preschool teacher based out of the U.S. And when we brought her to the tonies platform, she became #1 in U.S. downloads and #2 in the U.K., a phenomenal example of when a creator trusted by parents comes into our ecosystem, our community response.
Now let's talk about routines. You heard me talk about the relevance of bed times and being part of daily family life. Let me share a fact with you. Families who own at least one Sleep Tonie, double the number of tonies that they buy in their lifetime. Let that sink in. One single figurine can double a family spend with tonies. That is the power of routines because that daily listening drives deeper engagement, that leads to more demand, which, of course, leads to more purchases. Seasonal moments. Now these are a bit of a special routine. The simplest way to think of them is thinking about holidays. Of course, for children, the most magical time. We have content like Grinch in the U.S. or the tonies Advent Calendar, which is a tonies original we created. Now in Germany, children on average listen 14 minutes per day from December 1 to December 24. Just of that one Tonie. That is the time they are making their wish list, talking to Santa and parents are making purchasing decisions. And tonies is present the entire time.
Now let's talk about serialized experiences. This is a new format we've launched from tonies. Many of you know us for single listening sessions. But now we have content that evolves across multiple listening days. A phenomenal example is our Today with tonies podcast created in the U.K. for children under the age of 4. It has daily content and, of course, cliffhangers like the answer to a joke or riddle that's revealed the next day. So this naturally encourages a listening behavior, and it's how many families start their mornings. This format is an example of how we will enter new categories. I'm sure many of you can immediately see the connections between sports and serialized experiences. We can follow seasons, we can highlight moments and all the while help tonies ears first experiences come into new households.
Sports fandom, its shared identity as a family is a natural extension. Now all 4 mechanisms together drive deeper engagement, relevance, routine, seasonal moments and serialized experience. And speaking of relevance, I'm sure none of you missed our big news yesterday. Yes, you can believe it, Bluey has come to tonies.
[Presentation]
It is impossible for me to overstate the strength of Bluey. And I know for many of you whose YouTube feed or videos does not look like a preschool family or like mine, that may be new news. So let me give you some context. Bluey was the #1 stream show in the U.S. last year. Please note, I did not say #1 children, #1 show across all content. And that was for the second consecutive year. 45 billion minutes of Bluey were viewed in the U.S. alone. It's the #1 preschool property. And that's why we are so excited to give this to our fans, who reacted with joy, squeals and a whole lot of social shares yesterday when we sent out our preorder announcement. And of course, we're bringing Bluey to tonies as a full ecosystem launch.
For new families who don't know tonies, there's a Bluey with our beloved Toniebox 2. We also have 3 Classic Tonies representing the key characters of Bluey, Bingo and Muffin. And of course, a Tonieplay game, so children can have their own interactive stories with Bluey. All of this is surrounded by accessories, our to-go bag and sleeve. And so this is how we talk about launches, right? Across our whole ecosystem, this content is exclusive to tonies and uses the entertainment voices, and we know that's very critical to our audience.
And while it's fun to talk about the new, I want to also talk about a part of our portfolio that continues to grow. These are our evergreen titles. So at tonies, content becomes valuable year after year. Here's 3 examples for you. We have our Favorite Children Song that launched in '21. In '22, Gabby's Dollhouse and in '23, Spidey. You can see one of our owned originals, but also 2 licensed content, boy and girl. And despite having launched years and years ago, these are in the top played tonies in the past 6 months, right? Amazing. We haven't done anything to these products, and they continue to delight consumers as they discover our ecosystem. And this is how our launches become long-term assets.
Now I'm going to end with something that I hope you will enjoy as much as I. I want to talk through what happens when families fully engage in the ecosystem. We've talked and shared with you a lot about an average household, right? You know 280 minutes, they have 1 box and roughly 20 tonies over the 4.5 years. But what I want to share with you today is our super fans. So we define these as the top 10% of households that engage in listening and buy. They are completely different. They listen to tonies 600 minutes a week. They use their box 325 days a year on average. They own over 2 boxes. They were 6x more likely to upgrade to Toniebox 2. And their collection in that same period goes to 50 tonies. So hopefully, you understand that the average family is not our ceiling. It's our beginning.
So we've covered a lot. We've talked about the shift that's happening for modern families and why tonies is uniquely able to lead. We've talked about how we built differentiated capabilities through our partnerships, through our own IPs, through tonies Studio, through our listening data. And we talked about a business designed for enduring engagement, one that grows with children that strengthens the relationship with families over time and becomes more valuable as our ecosystem expands. And this is what gives us confidence, confidence in the relevance of this category as solving a need for families, confidence in the strength of our model and confidence in our ability to be the next global icon for families. And now we have a 15-minute break.
[Break]
As announced earlier, we are progressing through the day, and you will now hear from Christoph, our Chief Revenue Officer, on scaling the growth engine, how we win internationally, U.S. first.
Thank you, Tobias. Yes, hello. I'm Christoph Frehsee, it depends when you live that long in America and Germany, and you don't anymore. But yes, let me tell you actually how I got to tonies and what made me understood that this product has truly global customer appeal back in 2019. So my son who lives in California received a Toniebox in California from his grandma in Germany. Basically, within days, tonies time, that's -- he coined the word, became his favorite part of the day. It was basically story, music and at the time, everything dinosaurs, like T-Rex, Mosasaurus, all those things.
And the best part was I got my phone back. So it became his proudest possession and Toniebox has to go everywhere. And so when it was his turn on sharing day, he took his Toniebox to his little preschool in Palo Alto for show and tell. And in the evening, I got this picture, that's him, little Christoph with his little collection, his friend, Michelle. And so I asked him, so you took the box, how did it go? And he's like, well, now everybody wants one. And Michelle asked only if we had frozen. And Jason, next to him, he wanted the PAW Patrol.
And by the end of the week, every parent and also every single teacher ultimately was asking me where they could get the singing and talking box that all the children were talking about. So I remember thinking, wow, here we are in Silicon Valley, work space, iPhone, iPad, YouTube, social media and if this product can have such engagement, but also word of mouth, word of kids, word of mom, there's really a much bigger opportunity here.
So when the opportunity came to join tonies and jump start the U.S. business, I jumped on it, never looked back. So today, in the next 30 minutes or so, I want to do 3 things. First, bring you up to speed and show you how we've built tonies internationally over the last 6 years. Second, explain you a little bit the growth engine. We're going to get a little bit tactical there behind our success. And then third, show why we believe truly the runway ahead is even larger than the road behind us.
So as Tobias showed us, basically, demand is not limited by geography. Today, we operate in 5 markets, 10 countries, yet Tonieboxes have been activated all around the world in more than 100 countries. Families are basically already telling us where demand is. Our job is simply to meet them. Our growth was sequenced and intentional, started out, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, then U.K., Ireland, United States 2020, immediately after France. That helped us unlock Canada, and then we added Australia and New Zealand in 2024.
Each market was chosen deliberately. Each market taught us something and each launch made the next one easier. So when I had the pleasure to join tonies, we made just over EUR 100 million. That was a big deal back then. And the revenues, though came entirely from DACH. Since then, we have grown the company more than sixfold. DACH itself in the same period has more than doubled beyond EUR 200 million last year. And at the same time, we added another EUR 400 million of additional revenue outside of our home market.
As you can see, blue, the United States or North America has become our largest market and one of our fastest growing as well, demonstrating that the tonies model can succeed well beyond its country of origin. In fact, we call the U.S. now our second home market. Importantly, in the same time, though, we did not sacrifice profitability to get there. Growth profitability actually improved from minus -- yes, EUR 15 million at that time, when we burned some money to actually plus EUR 54 million adjusted EBITDA. So that's from minus 8.1% adjusted EBITDA to a plus 8.6% within 4 years.
Tonies has proven it can scale across markets, grow revenue and increase profitability at the same time. I think that combination is quite rare. Now let's look at the market that really put our models as the test, the United States. Like Tobias also made it clear, one strategic choice mattered more than any other in the past to prioritize the U.S. not because it's easy, but because it was the largest opportunity and the toughest test.
The U.S. has roughly 5x more children than in Germany. And families also spend more than 1.5x per child on toys, entertainment, educational products, the intersection where we operate. So together, that creates a 7.5x larger opportunity than our home market. And we knew if we would succeed there, we would gain more than scale. We would build the capabilities, partnerships and confidence to expand locally.
So there's tremendous value in the U.S., not just financially, but also strategically. The U.S. is the largest consumer market in the world, one currency, one shared language, yet enough diversity to actually reflect many of the dynamics that we see globally. This is where you compete for attention with the world's strongest and biggest brands. This is where you partner actually with the biggest licenses, the most sophisticated retailers and also the most advanced digital platforms.
I experienced myself, when you sign with Disney, Netflix or Warner Bros. in the U.S., every license in the world afterwards takes a call. At the same time -- and that is really interesting. The U.S. has one of the most consolidated retail landscapes anywhere. Basically, Target, Walmart and Amazon service more than 85% of preschool consumer demand. So that means when you master this and you earn meaningful space at those 2 retailers, Target and Walmart, for example, every conversation around the world with other retailers truly changes.
But perhaps more importantly, U.S. also made us a better company. To win in the U.S., we had to grow up fast. We had to strengthen basically every capability across the business from product to operations, to marketing, retention and also sales. The U.S. was not just a market opportunity. It was our proving ground. So 5 years later, the results, speak for themselves. Our largest market, we generate more than USD 300 million in net revenues. We're present in more than 7,500 point of sales. That means we have earned shelf space virtually everywhere where parents are.
So not just Target, Walmart, Amazon is digital, but then also Kohl's, clubs like Sam's Club, Barnes & Noble, Macy's and many others. In Q1, sales volume, tonies is the second largest preschool manufacturer in the U.S., basically just behind Spin Master, on PAW Patrol and Melissa & Doug, but ahead of Mattel and Hasbro. And that ranking actually, Circana data does not even include our own website sales and not fully our Amazon volume. So you make the math where we achieved that.
Most importantly, we've achieved the scale while reaching only approximately 12% penetration. Or put differently, nearly 90% of U.S. households with children are still ahead of us. So how do we do it? Well, like Tobias said, we declared the U.S. our second home market. That means we built a real U.S. company then. We built an organization with more than 100 team members in North America and also a new headquarter in Boston.
Fun fact, I'm actually for now, still the only one with a German accent over there. Well, as a team, our retail strategy really worked. From day 1, I would also say it was our retail chess game. We played it very, very deliberately. I knew that Target or Tarjay, like we call it in California, had to become really our lead retail partner. The Target mom was not just a perfect customer. It is the customer, bull's eye, no pun intended.
We knew if Target truly embraces the brand, Walmart would take notice, and that's exactly what happened. So we built Target from -- we have 2 [indiscernible] also there, 4 feet to 8 feet, now 12 feet. So let me tell you the little anecdote. From the first meetings, I remember that vividly, they made it very clear that they would never think that our brand could earn more than 4 feet in line at Target because they clearly said the productivity we require, Christoph is really, really high.
Well, we own the space and it looks like this now, 12 feet. And as I said, as the Target went from 8 to 12 feet around that time, Walmart really woke up and was like, "Oh my God, we're missing market share here." So they positioned us in a way, they call this the trend pod, 11 feet. The end of the aisle on the racetrack and very dominant position and invested heavily behind the brand.
[Presentation]
That was the feature in last year's holiday campaign. And to be clear, you might think, well, you buy yourself into that clip. That's the Walmart clip that runs out, tonies, Nespresso, Apple, right? Now, that kind of visibility at Walmart cannot be earned -- cannot be bought. You have to earn it with foot traffic and relevance, and that is what tonies brings to retailers.
So we obviously also have to build cultural relevance in the U.S. So when we launched TB2, we launched it at America's most important commercial intersection, Times Square in New York. And we also partnered with some of the most influential voices in children's entertainment. Ginny introduced earlier, Ms. Rachel, the nation's #1 preschool teacher, 5 million Instagram followers with a beautiful figurine here, criss-cross applesauce. Let me show you how she goes really to battle for us with her fans.
[Presentation]
That's Ms. Rachel. Then next up, Laurie Berkner. So Laurie Berkner is actually one of the most recognized names in children music in the U.S. with more than 700,000 YouTube subscribers. She is also a partner of us that goes on tour with us and fills actually halls and -- concert halls with little kids where you take your child for the first content.
[Presentation]
Of course, they do. Well and if you ask Snoop Dogg, what to get for your kids in the next holiday season, he will tell you.
[Presentation]
It's actually really cool, tonies, if you get a hold of it, Bow Wizzle and it's about affirmations. It's really -- yes, gets you started in the morning. So winning the U.S. ultimately require 3 things: a local team, retail excellence and then also building cultural relevance. Together, those capabilities have become truly a blueprint for growth in every market we enter. By now, I think you got it. Business model is quite simple.
At the core, growth is driven by 2 compounding levers: household acquisition on the one hand and customer lifetime value. Acquisition is driven by the market size, distribution, brand awareness and lifetime value is driven by the quality of the content experiences, the partnerships we form and our truly outstanding understanding of our customer behavior. So looking ahead, of course, we expect Toniebox Light to help us accelerate household acquisition, as Tobias mentioned.
And I think it was also very clear from Ginny's presentation how our investments in our content experiences and the partnerships we form truly further will accelerate and strengthen our ability to increase lifetime value. Let me show you how this formula played out in numbers in the United States from what we want to share today. But basically, our install base cumulative grew with 104% CAGR between '21 and '25, while the figurine, the attach sold grew even faster at approximately 139% CAGR.
This is truly the compounding effect in action. And importantly, this formula repeats itself. Once the market reaches minimum efficient scale, the install base compounds, attach compound and also with that, obviously, profitability flows. Today, box sales become tomorrow's recurring demand. It's a formula. So we have shown that the model travels from Germany, our home market to the U.S. Two markets with, I think you agree, very different consumer behaviors, media habits and also retail landscape.
But we have seen the same formula drive growth and profitability in very similar ways. Now let's look at the growth engine that powers it. Our growth engine is not built around a single channel. It's built around 3 channels, true omnichannel, each serving a distinct purpose, tonies.com, wholesale and marketplaces. Each channel plays its role in acquiring customers, building engagement and maximizing lifetime value. Together, they form one integrated distribution engine.
Let's start with tonies.com. We call it -- it's the home of the tonies. It's our most important channel for actually initiating new households and retaining existing ones. Over the last 6 years, we have built what I believe is the best customer acquisition experience in the category. The reason is simple. Unlike traditional retail, we are not limited by shelf space, and we can help every family build the perfect tonies experience from day 1.
So let me show you it is kind of like half life, how our bundler works on the website. So imagine I buy a set now to get my little niece, Hannah, who lives in Washington, D.C. into the system, right? Take a red Toniebox, now I build her collection. I know she loves Moana. And then what else? Zootopia, we've been to the movies together, great film actually. She's a huge Frozen fan. So Olaf as a Cuddle Tonie into the bundle.
Now I want to help my sister, so let's definitely get Sleepy Sheep for bed time, and that will double her future value also we heard. Then I can't check out without games. Gabby's Dollhouse game is actually also really fun if you want to play that. That should be good for attach. Now system is smart because you need a controller before you continue. Headsets because, yes, we love when they listen to tonies, but sometimes it's good they listen by themselves.
And then a Creative Tonies. I'm a big fan, and it's actually Blanco is a huge SKU because people actually design and make it look like whoever sends the messages. My sister and her daughter are a lot on the go. So I take also a bag to keep it all together when they travel. And then Hannah likes a night light at night as well. So the crocodile. Tada, checkout $323 plus tax.
So before long, I have actually built a completely personalized experience around that child. And ultimately, no retailer can offer that level of personalization, right? No retailer can offer that level of assortment also. And the result is a significant higher basket value at the point of acquisition. But we can clearly see because customers built their own ecosystem from day 1, they also tend to exhibit stronger lifetime value over time.
Second channel, that's real fun, Wholesale. So our retail partners, right? Our retail partners provide us with basically the physical manifestation of the brand. It gives us in every country, national reach and builds brand awareness in trusted retail environments from small mom-and-pops to big chains. And with that access to millions of families where they already shop. Being also carried at retailers like Target, legitimizes the brand because ultimately, customers trust the creation of those retailers.
Unlike online channels, retail allows customers actually to discover the brand physically. They can touch the product. They see all the figurines. They experience also the quality of the product. And in many stores, they can actually press a button and get a taste of the audio experience itself. That moment really matters because tonies is a product that becomes even more compelling once you touch and experience it. Retail plays also a unique role in collection building.
Families often come into a store and say, you can only pick one, but well, they leave with several. And wholesale is not simply a distribution channel for us. That's truly -- it's a partnership. It's where we introduce the brands to millions of families where they discover it and their journey begins. Personally, I really love selling to retail this brand because it's a true win-win. Retailers actually prioritize tonies because they combine -- recombine this high-value customer that we bring in with the predictable recurring demand that Tobias also talked about.
Currently, we're at 25,000 doors point of sales globally right now. Fun fact though is most retailers initially list us as a toy. Remember Target saying you're only going to get 4 feet. But what they quickly discover is that we behave very differently. At first, they're attracted by our customer profile. We bring in the cool mom that listens to Ms. Rachel. So we bring in parents, millennials and Gen Z families. It's a premium customer, above average spending power.
But what really changes the conversation is what happens after the first Toniebox is sold. As retailers build what we call their native installed base, these households come back and retailers see customers returning again and again and again for characters, games and accessories. They see a very high purchase frequency, much higher than other brands can offer. And they see growing demand from households, they have already acquired themselves. So in many ways, the model resembles the traditional video game console business, a platform creates future demand.
But unlike video games, we retain the physical collectible nature of our figurines. That will not go away. While much of the gaming has moved towards digital downloads, subscriptions, game passes, our business model remains highly productive for physical retail. That combination is powerful and also sought after. Retailers initially buy a toy, but they ultimately discover it's a category of its own. And because our platform is connected, and that's where the fun stuff starts now, we can help retailers also understand the value that install base in ways other brands that they carry cannot.
So next slide is going to get a bit technical, so bear with me. Most retailers can tell you how many boxes they sold. They can also tell you how many figurines they sold. But we can get one step further. We can connect those sales back actually to the activation behavior of the boxes from that retailer. So retailer here, every box is 10,000 boxes and every figurine is 100,000 figurines. So 50,000 boxes, 500,000 figurines sold. They feel great at first glance. 10 tonies per box is already really, really attractive attach rate.
So there's little reason they do this with 4 feet to expand space. But the activation data that we can show them tells a different story. Actually, in this example, yes, you have built this install base, but here's what, your people, your customers only bought 200 -- or activated 200,000 of the 500,000 boxes -- tonies you sold on their boxes. They actually purchased another 400,000 tonies elsewhere. So the retailer actually served only 33% of that consumer demand.
Shocking? The reason is simple. A typical 4-foot section can only carry 32 to 48 tonies. But families quickly outgrow that assortment and begin purchasing additional characters elsewhere because the retailer simply does not stock them. So at roughly $20 per tonies, this equals to missing demand of 400,000 tonies represents approximately EUR 8 million potential retail sales flowing to other channels. That changes the conversation. So what initially looked like a successful category, 10 tonies per box reveals a much larger opportunity hidden within the retailer's own install base. And that is how you grow from 4 feet to 8 feet to 12 feet at national retailer.
The same data helps us also resolve the channel conflict. If you're like, wait a second, where did the other 300,000 figurines go? Well, we can show. Retailers sometimes worry about the growth of Amazon and tonies.com. Using activation data, we can demonstrate how households move across channels and how the entire ecosystem contributes to the category growth. Just as importantly, the same retailer can see the 300,000 tonies sold went to boxes purchased elsewhere. Happy about this.
That realization changes also the conversation because instead of viewing those channels purely as competitors, zero-sum game, retailers recognize the opportunity to capture ongoing content purchases from a much larger install base. And so they really want to leverage their unfair advantage, which is physical presence in many markets. So instead of arguing about which channel gets credit or a particular sale, the race really become serving as much of the install base as possible in their physical presence. That's the power of a connected device.
So the result is that tonies can actually win across all retail formats. It's also very special. I would say most brands are really dependent on 1 or 2 dominant channels. Tonies is different here. Parents do not think in retail formats, right? They think about solving a need for their child. That allows tonies to really show up wherever parents, but also gift givers like grandparents already shop. Bookstores, Barnes & Noble in the U.S. or Thalia in Germany.
Mass retailers talked about Walmart or BIG W in Australia. Specialty stores, Smyths Toys, huge chain here in the U.K., France and also Germany. FAO Schwarz, Jewelry Club. Here in London, I would recommend that you actually go to John Lewis. When grocers, drugstores, pop-up concepts we tried and even vending machine. So this significantly really expands our addressable distribution opportunity while reducing the dependence on any single channel.
And there's another reason why tonies growth engine has proven so scalable across the markets and geographies. And here's what our retail relationships buy us globally. I talked about -- it took us 5 years to get to Target that forced Walmart's hand, went much quicker, 2 years. Now it accelerates expansion everywhere else. The impact goes beyond. When we entered Australia and New Zealand, we basically covered directly 2 major retailers, both with 8 feet.
And they watch closely how Target and Walmart allocates space to spot trends in their own markets. So within year 1, we secured 2 leading retailers. And together, they represented more than 80% of the local retail network, almost immediately. The same happened also as we jumped from the U.S. to Canada. So, as I said before, success in the U.S. shortens the path to scale everywhere else.
The third channel is Marketplaces. So if wholesale is about reach. Tonies.com is really about the engagement collections. Marketplaces basically sit at this intersection. They help us acquire new households, strengthen customer lifetime value and maintain also commercial control. When I say marketplaces, I mean mainly Amazon, which we operate, and that's important as a third-party seller, but also local players like Cdiscount in France or also walmart.com in the U.S. where we supplement as a seller, Walmart's owned inventory.
Marketplaces work because they align perfectly with how modern parents shop. In the U.S., more than half of product searches start actually on Amazon. 70% of all adults in the U.S. subscribe to Amazon Prime. That means on the phone. Like tonies.com, Marketplace allow us to offer our full portfolio without shelf space constraints. And because we operate primarily as a third-party seller, like I said, we maintain control about pricing, assortment experience and valuable customer insights. So I've discussed the engine.
But now I'll show you 3 boosters here, and I want to talk a little bit more kind of our unfair competitive advantages. And these boosters are particularly powerful. First one is our app. Here we are on the left side, our app. When you buy a Toniebox, you have to register the box. And actually, parents give us in most cases, the child's age and also content preferences. That really allows us to put them on the customized journey all along the tonies experience.
The second one is our app. No, that was the first one. The second one is our First-party data. I showed you already how we use it with our retail partners. And, of course, we use it for customers for better experience. And lastly, for the business, it helps us making better decisions all across forecasting and supply chain as well.
Third one is our Real-world fandom. We have live experiences. I mentioned already Laurie Berkner in the U.S. But in Germany, you have 20 boxes for museum tours. And in the U.K., we took a London taxi to have Santa Claus deliver 20 boxes to hospitals before the holiday season. So we engage our user base in real life experience. And that is really priceless. Together, these 3 advantages strengthen acquisition, increase engagement and expand the customer lifetime value across the entire ecosystem. So each channel basically reinforces each other. That's the flywheel, and these advantages help it spin faster every time.
Now third chapter. So, so far, we discussed the engine. Question is, where do we go from here? So far, we are focused on what was built, a business spanning 5 markets, 10 countries, more than 12 million Tonieboxes sold and a proven growth engine that has scaled across geographies. But we believe the opportunity ahead is significantly larger. Within our existing markets, we continue to see substantial room for growth in household penetration, distribution, awareness and engagement.
Beyond that, tonies households already exist in more than 100 countries around the world, creating a really strong foundation for future expansion. In total, we estimate our addressable opportunity exceeds 570 million households globally. In short, significant growth opportunities, both within our existing markets and in new geographies. The question is not whether there's room to grow. The question is where we go next and when.
So when we evaluate markets, we do this through 2 lenses: strategic attractiveness, we check market size, language leverage and competitive dynamics to maximize our reach. The other dimension is operational readiness. We look at our infrastructure, existing demand and content localization to maximize ROI. Together, these criterias both determine where we go and when we go. Over time, we have developed 3 repeatable models for entering new markets.
The first is a fully owned operation as demonstrated in France. France is a really culturally distinct market, and they had an established player at the time. So we went head on with local capabilities, localized the experience and successfully competed. 4 years later, we won. The second is our adjacent expansion as demonstrated in Canada, a market that is very similar to the U.S. While requiring French language capabilities also for Quebec, we support Canada from our existing organization in the U.S., allowing us to leverage teams, content and infrastructure already in place.
And the third one is the distributor-led model that we applied in Australia and New Zealand. It's highly efficient for us because we combine local expertise with our proven launch playbook and existing portfolio. Three different market requirements, 3 different approaches. The principle remains the same. So for future launches, we will continue to obviously invest in those launches, but each one will benefit from the capabilities, the content partnerships and the experiences we have already built.
Our road ahead, 1.4 billion, as Tobias said, by 2030. Importantly, that ambition does not require us to reinvent the model. It starts by continuing to grow the markets we already serve. Remember, DACH 58%, but only approximately 12% penetration in our second home market, the United States. Significant opportunities remain there across awareness, distribution, household and engagement. Beyond our existing footprint, we see very attractive opportunities across Europe, across Latin America, of course, but also to expand further in Asia Pacific.
Tonieboxes are already used in many of these markets today. So what we shared today, our ambition is basically 2 new markets by the end of '27 and to be in all major regions by the end of 2030. The next chapter is not about building a new growth engine. It's about scaling what we already have. Our ambition is built on this proven growth engine. Over the last decade, we have proven that this model actually works. And importantly, that model and this engine also becomes stronger with every market we enter.
Our data compounds, our operational playbook compounds, our licensor relationships compound, our localization capabilities compound, our distribution credibility compounds, most important and absolutely priceless, our fandom compounds. I believe we're still in the early chapters of the tonies story.
And by now, I hope I've convinced you of 2 things. First, the product is proven across markets, cultures and also retail formats. And second, we have absolutely built a repeatable growth engine with the operational and commercial capabilities required to scale tonies globally. The opportunity ahead is substantial, more than EUR 1.4 billion in revenue and 16% to 18% EBITDA margin by 2030. So after lunch, Hansjorg will walk you through the final model that underpins that ambition.
[Break]
Welcome back. I hope you enjoyed the break. Wonderful London weather, 27 degrees I'm hearing, sun is shining. So when tonies comes to London, London is actually giving back. Isn't that great? So now we have two more important agenda topics for all of you. You first hear from Hansjorg Muller, our CFO, about our resilient financial model. And then we have Q&A where we will all be -- all four of us will be on stage and happily take your questions. With this, please welcome on stage, Hansjorg Muller, CFO, tonies.
Good afternoon. Welcome to the last session before we open it up to your questions actually. So before I take you through our resilient financial model, let me give you a bit of perspective on myself. Many of you already know me. For those who don't, I've spent my career in similarly strong ecosystem environments at EA, at Netflix, both businesses are built on similarly strong cohort economics, the same mechanics you'll see a lot more of in the next 30 minutes. If there's one thing I learned, the key lesson I took from these experiences is the real strength was never a single product. It was always the ecosystem around it. And this is exactly what we have at tonies in a strong and powerful way. And it is what drives our financials.
So if you take nothing else away from the next 30 minutes, take these three things. One, and you've heard this now a couple of times, we are much more than a toy. We run an attractive, predictable, resilient ecosystem. Two, our track record. This is our confidence in our ambition. Three, what the ambition actually is, more than doubling revenue to EUR 1.4 billion by 2030 and more than doubling profitability to 16% to 18% in the midterm. So what to expect today? This is how I structured my session. First, the basics, how our ecosystem economics actually work. Then I'll get more into our track record, and then I'll deep dive into what to expect.
So with that, let me introduce to you into our ecosystem flywheel. You've all been to a toy shop, right? You walk down the toy aisle. Most likely, you find the plastic toy, a very linear, short-lived, sometimes singular moment of joy. What we do at tonies is different. We take the best out of toy. And with that, we touch so many areas at once. sparking joy and magic moments, fostering child development and for parents like some of us, giving a real sense of peace of mind. Now take that and combine that with the attractiveness of very specific business models.
So in addition to toy, we reach into education, think pocket tonies, clever tonies, and that's only the start of what a journey into learning could look like. We bring in technology, the box itself, the data library Christoph spoke about earlier. We bring in gaming, think Tonieplay as the category innovation in audio gaming. And then most importantly, the recurring pattern of media and streaming. In fact, more than what's shown on the slide here with new content, we're now just entering sports, as Ginny has shown you before. So yet another vector, a classic toy can simply not deliver on. So summarizing the box purchase is merely the entry into that ever-growing ecosystem.
Let me get you one level closer to how our ecosystem economics behave, namely they're subscription-like with purchase patterns that drive predictability. We manage cohorts. This is how the cohort model works. So what you're looking at here is the attach behavior of every cohort. the number of tonies activated year-by-year for each year's intake. Take 2021 as an example. You see a year-1 purchase, a year-2, year-3, year-4. The families who entered in 2021 bought a certain number of tons in that first year, and then it kept going. Now look across the vintages. The same year-1 purchase is more or less the same in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. The year-2 purchase, again, is remarkably consistent, right? The year-3 purchase, the same, you get the idea, right? This is what consistency looks like and that gives us predictability and resilience over time. What does that mean? We can plan and build our forecasts on cohort behavior we've now observed for years. And obviously, what's shown here is in units, the same is true for revenue.
So what does that mean? What does this tell us about the model? Four things. First, it works anytime, as you can see here. Every cohort, every vintage shows similarly stable behavior. Second, it works everywhere. We saw this in DACH first. We saw the same kind of behavior and predictability when we launched in the U.S. Every market behaves subscription-like. What you see here in the chart is just the global aggregate of this. Third, the ecosystem compounds a growing portfolio structurally feeds the cohort stability with new formats, My First Tonies, Cuddle Tonies, Tonieplay, Clever Tonies, they all add lifetime value to cohorts we already have, not just new ones. And then fourth, it's resilient against saturation. Newness is baked into the product's DNA. When we launch something like Bluey or Pokémon, which Ginny just showed you, the whole ecosystem feels new again to our families. Now that you've seen how the cohort model works, let me show you its longevity.
Longevity starts with early entry. No device enters the child room younger than tonies. I only need one number to show you that, 79%. That's the share of children who get into tonies aged 3 or younger. Now compare that to, for example, Amazon Alexa or Nintendo or Roblox, we are simply the first device in the child's room by several years. Why does that matter? Well, one, it's a blue ocean. It's hard for competitors to reach into that age group that early. Other devices aren't as built for the toddler's room and only become relevant at age 4 or even at 6 plus. So moreover, this early entry precisely means high longevity. Boxes activated in 2016 can still be active today and a significant share of them actually are. Last, it leaves us with the potential to extend on both ends, right? My First Tonies , Toniebox 2, which is 1+ certified, moved us even younger than before. Clever Tonies or play, Tonieplay, they keep families longer. And while there's still room to go, it's a reality today that we already entered the room years before competition arrives. So this early capture compounds into real lifetime value.
Now let me connect the cohort economics with the longevity of that ecosystem. And I'll translate it into financial terms. Each bar here is 1 year's cohort and the revenue that cohort generates over its life. I'll give you 2 examples. I'll talk to 2 examples. Take 2020. The families who joined 6 years ago are still generating revenue today. They've delivered much of their value, of course, already, but they haven't stopped, not least, of course, because new formats and content keep them engaged throughout. Now take 2025, for example, a far larger cohort with almost all of its economic value still ahead of it. The bars get thicker every year because each cohort is bigger and more valuable than the last. And the revenue still to come from cohorts we have already acquired is more than EUR 1 billion. Now factor in the cohorts we will have acquired by end of this year, you're looking at approximately EUR 1.5 billion in revenue that we predict based on reliable cohort behavior. That is the essence of cohort-based economics. It is -- some may even say a quasi bank business. So I've shown you how the ecosystem economics work.
Next part, let's look at the track record. Tobias has already alluded to it. In net revenue terms, we've always delivered on what we promised as we've grown from EUR 188 million to the EUR 630 million in net revenue. Every single year, we met or beat our guidance. We did that despite some significant headwinds. Of course, we guide on profitability as well, and we've always delivered on both of them year-over-year. That delivery is impressive on its own. It's even more impressive against the backdrop. You've heard me talk last year about tariffs and component costs this year. But such headwinds didn't just arrive recently. For the last 5 and more years, we've had our fair share every single year. You see that little character at the top. That's a creative Vampire tonie. We put them on our internal slides whenever there's something scary on the horizon. But we all know we continuously delivered. The resilience of the business model is what delivered. But still, our little guy here has had more than a busy few years. 2021 with COVID and global supply chain disruption, 2022, the war in Ukraine, inflation, consumer sentiment crisis. 2023, the Middle East crisis, raw material price hikes, 2024 inflation, consumer caution again, 2025 tariffs, FX headwinds, still cautious consumers. So through every year of it, the model held, reliable, growing and more profitable.
You all know what 2025 looks like, an extensive new tariff regime on top of everything else. And still, we delivered. So let me show you the toolkit behind that resilience. At the top, the installed base flywheel, our large fan base kept purchasing subscription-like right through it. Then supply chain, a flexible setup with fast ramp-up of our Vietnam capacity to diversify box supply, incredible agility shown by our teams. Next, pricing, a measured well-communicated response with limited impact on volumes. This is the commercial firepower we have earned as a business. Lastly, design to value, continuous improvement across our cost base to counterbalance the pressure. And the result in a year like that, net revenue up 36% at constant currency, adjusted EBITDA up 50% year-on-year. One new flagship platform launched successfully, 3 new above-the-box formats prepared, two of which landed successfully in 2025 with tonieplay and My First tonies and Cuddle Tonies, which we launched in 2026. So really remarkable.
That brings me to the third and final part, what to expect? What are we aiming for, right? And what you were probably all staying for even after lunch. Let's unpack it. We already shared the ambition earlier today. 2025, we did EUR 630 million in net revenue at 8.6% adjusted EBITDA margin. By 2030, we target more than EUR 1.4 billion, just to repeat, at a midterm margin of 16% to 18%. That is more than doubling revenue, over 2.2x times and it's expanding margin by more than 1.9x versus 2025. I'll let you do the math of multiplying these effects through. But what's driving this? Let's start with the top line. By 2030, as I said, we target the EUR 1.4 billion. It's a 17% compound annual growth rate from here. It has three building blocks. First, the existing business. Most of the growth comes from the core, existing products in existing markets, growing the installed base, driving the flywheel. While product innovation and new launches are exciting and provide us with additional potential, it's comforting to know that much of what we aim for is actually coming from the predictable engine we already have today.
Second, new devices. and attach innovation, drive additional growth. Toniebox Light is just another step in this sense. And third, new market launches. They contribute meaningfully. You've heard Christoph say today, we'll add 2 next year, but they will take time to ramp, time to build the flywheel, and we have planned for that. So now let's turn to the bottom line. Our ambition is to bring adjusted EBITDA to around 16% to 18% midterm, a clear step up where we are today. I'll come to the contributing factors to that step up next. Gross margin will remain a key lever for future EBITDA improvement. There's mainly 3 drivers behind it. First, the product mix. This is the flywheel again as the install base grows our installed base grows and attach grows faster still, how 20 tonies for one box on average, margin improves naturally. Second, structural cost improvements, major efficiency program across products, design to value, supply chain design and more. Third, our commercial and production levers, a stable response setup with sourcing flexibility proven highly effective last year. Let's pause. It's noteworthy that we expand gross margin and with awareness of how external factors component cost, inflation, tariffs and more have been working against us the past years.
But as we bring it together, how do we get from here to there on EBITDA. So the first building block, around half of the EBITDA margin step-up will come from gross margin improvement, what I just explained on the previous slide. Contributing to this are, again, the natural product mix improvement and further product innovation. In the second building block, roughly the other half is coming from operating leverage. What do we mean by operating leverage? Structural improvements to the underlying business. As we scale, scale effects, we become more efficient on many fronts. Our brand works harder for us. And the third also important building block, while we drive for efficiency, we also retain our focus on growth. This EBITDA ambition also ensures the funding of the initiatives we've shared with you today.
Let me move to a slightly different topic. I want to point out the nature of our -- the CapEx-light nature of our business. Tonies is, and we aim that to continue a CapEx-light business by design, right? We have no owned manufacturing. The production backbone sits to a large degree with our suppliers. We have no own distribution. We go through 3PLs and third-party retail. No warehouse fleet, no store network and our hardware is durable and long-cycle. Generational updates are infrequent. So the tooling and the R&D investment stays relatively low. Now, what do we do with all this success? How do we allocate capital, I think, will be one of your questions. For now, the best home for our capital is the growth in front of us, guided, first and foremost, by reinvestment into the core. This means organic growth and ecosystem scaling. So reinvest to expand internationally and to fund that high-margin innovation that grows lifetime value.
Moreover, there's a second important aspect to this. It's balance sheet resilience, right? Keep leverage low, use our cash to self-fund the growth, maintain flexibility. There will be, of course, opportunities. Once the ecosystem sustainably generates more and more and more cash to allocate, and we'll pursue these opportunities like always with a clear vision and discipline. But for now, we don't have plans to share buybacks or dividends or the likes. So before I close, a few things that you should know about this plan. On product, every planned innovation from box to attach is reflected in the ambition we stated. On internationalization, the planned velocity of new market launches through 2030 is reflected too. On efficiencies, we've reflected our full efforts to manage the bottom line from cost of goods sold to operating leverage with no dedicated AI efficiency gains yet priced in.
So we might wonder some further upside, right? You might be thinking about. Inorganic growth, faster rollout, unconfirmed launches is explicitly not yet in these numbers. So let me bring it all together with what gives me confidence in this plan. First, our subscription-like economics that I've shown you. They give us predictability with around EUR 1.5 billion of future revenue still outstanding just from already existing cohorts and those we will acquire until the end of this year. Second, the margin expansion is structural. The operating leverage is only one aspect. A large part of it is almost inevitable as the installed base scales. And third, we have a proven playbook, tested, repeatable, adaptable business levers that drive that resilience.
Lastly, capital discipline and strong profitability levers fund the next phase. This plan isn't based on needing capital raises or changing capital structure. The model funds itself. And of course, looking at the stellar team today on stage, we have another reason that this ambition is more than realistic to achieve. With this, thank you. I look forward to your questions. But before I go there, Tobias for some closing remarks.
Thank you, Hansjorg. Thank you, Ginny. Thank you, Christoph. Let's wrap this up. These are the things I would like -- we would like you to take home from this very first Capital Market Day here in London. You heard us talking about three things repeatedly over the last couple of hours. Number one, build an ecosystem that compounds value, right? We had introduced you to Tonie Box Light. Ginny spoke about our content portfolio and everything that actually surrounds that. Very important first point of our strategy. Secondly, win internationally, U.S. first. I think Christoph made it really, really clear how we got there in North America and what are some of the unique strengths that only we have that we can now apply as we continue to further internationalize our business. And how that, and I say it again, this word, compounds over time. Australia was a great example of us applying all the learnings of all the previous market launches, and you could see the effect there.
Third, extend our story of reliable, profitable growth. Hansjorg took you deeper into our numbers. We have revealed our midterm ambition of EUR 1.4 billion in revenues by 2030 and also obviously, the 16% to 18% adjusted EBITDA margin that goes with that. And this is all built on our subscription-like cohorts that, again, compound. Think of the quasi-bank business that we have shown to you. And the last thought I want to kind of make sure you take home is, yes, this is hopefully very clearly showing you we are not your average toy. We are much, much more than that. And there's so much more for us to obviously go after. And allow me a fourth point that is not on the screen. What makes me extremely confident about us delivering all this is our fantastic team that we have here at tonies. Over 600 very motivated people that show up every single day to make this happen in Germany, in the U.K., in France, in North America, in Australia and probably in a few more countries down the road.
So thank you very much for joining us here in London, the Science Museum. Thank you very much, everyone on the screen. I know there's been a lot of you, and thank you for your patience as we went through the day. We are opening up for Q&A now. So I would like to ask, first of all, Moritz, our Head of IR, back on stage and then also my colleagues, Ginny, Christoph and Hansjorg. And then we open up for questions. And hopefully, we'll have time for an informal chat after. Thank you very much.
And we have 2 wonderful colleagues here, left and right with microphones in their hands. So please raise your hand and then either [ Vini ] or [ Josefina ] will bring you a microphone, and we'll try to actually capture the priority of the hands going up, I think first. Can you maybe quickly introduce yourself and then ask the question?
2. Question Answer
Sure. My name is Mason. I'm from [ Edel ] Capital. In the release this morning, you disclosed that your penetration in Germany was at 58%, which is really, really high. So my question is, number one, are you surprised at how high that penetration number is, number one? Number two, can it go higher? And number three, how replicable is that 58% across your other key geographies?
Fantastic question. Thank you very much. No, I'm not surprised. Obviously, I've seen this number growing over the last couple of years. And so I actually -- I'm just convinced that this number is something that we can, to a degree, also take as a target for other markets. Probably not at the exact same height. I mean, if you look at the U.S. business, I would always say this is a great aspiration, but the North American market works differently, right? I mean it has different listening behaviors. It has also different media consumption behaviors. It's a lot more diverse market. But it's clear, hopefully, by today that the 12% that we have in North America is really, as Christoph also said, just the beginning, right?
But let's also say, I mean, Germany is our home market. Home markets behave slightly different, but it's also our hero market, and we'll take what we have in Germany, all the learnings and apply it in other markets. The important thing that I find most -- I mean, the really important fact that makes us all very proud about our core market that is the growth we see in this established market. The 26% year-over-year growth in Q1 of 2026. This is probably what I would like you to take away. Maybe one from this side, Gerhard.
Gerhard from Berenberg. You said that the partnership with Bluey and Pokémon was exclusive. And I don't think that was the case historically where Disney would go along several platforms. Can you tell us how this came about, how defensible this is and why they have chosen to be exclusive with you?
Ginny, do you want to take that?
Absolutely. So for both partnerships, two factors to think about. Obviously, when they look at the space, they see tonies as a leader. So while others are asking, they are not responding. The second piece is, as we shared, all the content we create is exclusive to that platform. So while there will be Pokémon on different platforms like audible or experiences like this, this is what we will own with families. And those two pieces are becoming more and more critical to our partners and who they select and how they want to establish these relationships long term.
My name is Russell Pointon from Edison. Two questions. First of all is on the product. I'd just be interested to find out what was the most important feature that surprised you on the launch of the second box. And the second question was on the presentation on the U.S., you talked about the population size and the relative lifetime spend is EUR 1.5 billion. Could you just talk about the factors that build into that EUR 1.5 billion? Is it just a reflection of relative wealth, that type of thing and perhaps link that into how you think about future markets? Is it that -- I assume you're going to go for the markets where the spend per customer is probably likely to be higher?
Yes. Great. I'd suggest I'll take the first one, you take the second one. So the feature that surprised us, to use your word, surprise, maybe it's not the right word. On Toniebox 2, obviously, you heard me saying this a couple of times. We had and still have, obviously, Toniebox 1. It's still used in millions of households. It's a wonderful product. It works every single day. Every stat you see -- I mean, it's mostly driven, obviously, from Toniebox 1. So we always said the time we are going to launch a new box would be a time when we have -- when we think we have a real innovation.
So not just round shapes or something like that, really, we wanted to bring something new. And so that is -- that was the time -- the time was there last year when we built everything is ready for Tonieplay. Interactive audio gaming, another category we created. And surprise or not, whatever word you want to take, the way Tonieplay is now landing in households is really amazing. And we like that. It's -- the games that we have, the quality of the games, the level of interaction, the adoption of this relatively young category is really, really good. And that's, by the way, something that only works on Toniebox 2. Christoph, do you want to talk about?
Yes, I appreciate it, Russell. You picked on those numbers. So first to the 1.5x, that includes toy, entertainment and educational product. And that's the intersection that we consider ourselves. And I think the different spending happens, of course, not just only geographically, but also socioeconomic in every market. So at the end of the day, when you say like how it influences future selection, as I said, we optimize for reach. We are the next million users. And then we balance this with ROI, what's for us the most effective way to ultimately reach them. And I think with that, there are plenty of pockets around the world in different formats that we can reach.
I'm Jeff from First Generation. This question is for Ginny. I thought the super fan engagement metrics were really interesting. I'm curious if you've learned anything around the inputs that are controllable by Tony's that can result in a greater number of super fans. And then I'm also interested as to whether you know what the daily activations are for the product as a percentage of total activations. Just how much is an actual daily habit for the installed base?
Happy to answer those. I don't have the daily activations, so I'll get back to you on that. But for the super fans, what we've seen is some of those triggers. Obviously, we shared the Sleep Tonie statistic with you, which obviously enables that deeper engagement. And we also see a lot in terms of how quickly they acquire Tonies in the first year as really being a signal in how they will deepen their relationship. And the last is the content diversity. So it's very easy, I think, if you don't have a little listener in your life to think a figurine is a figurine. No, it is not. So you really have to represent the right characters, the right stories, the right environments, and that is also a key signal we see.
Christian here.
Christian from NuWays. I have a question. So the -- on the figurines that you sell per Toniebox after 4.5 years, all this data is based on TB1. Would you expect this to be any different with TB 2?
Think it's another one.
I'm happy to, but everyone feel free to join in. We see no signals of why that would change. If anything, there is more growth opportunity TB 2. So obviously, we've talked about play, the excitement in that whole different category, which, again, is accretive. It's not replacing the figurine. It's another way, another time of day, another occasion to interact with your Toniebox. So we see exciting future there.
If I may ask another one on the U.S., basically, it seems like all the building blocks are already in place, right? You had all the relevant retailers, your brand recognition is really strong. So do you have to do much more to get to the #1 and maybe double sales? Or is it basically just -- you just have to wait and wait for the cohorts actually to convert into Tony figuring sales?
Christoph?
I think it's great. In the U.S., we basically just roll out of bed and then the rest happens. I think your observation is pretty good in the sense of like, as I mentioned, the pump is primed, the distribution channel is there. The numbers we also suppose are significant in that sense. The native installed base that model that I shared with you of also how much basically every retailer has almost hooked themselves in. I think a retailer would have a really hard problem right now to take Tonies off or reduce because their own installed base will be like, we're the Tonies, right? So -- but hey, it's also, as I said earlier, one of the most competitive markets. It's one where you compete for mind share with parents like no other. So we want to defend it, and our work is not done. Does that help?
In the back.
It's Peter from Pictet. Could you guys talk a little bit about the road map for sports and what to think about that? It seems like a very big area that there's a lot to do. So I'd love to understand a little bit how you're tackling such a big opportunity.
Yes. I mean I love to talk about sports all the time, but then she also -- so you probably take that before I get too excited because I am super excited about sports.
So hopefully, you've seen in the portfolio today, there is sports content in our Pocket Tonies, which we know consumers love. We also have a Tonieplay sports game out in Germany right now where you can battle, bring that competitive energy you may have to Tonieplay. And so with those initial experiences, again, we are testing new formats in different ways. That also with our growth, has triggered a lot of conversations from different leagues, whether in the U.S. or in Germany or across Europe, who obviously see this fandom as something that is very important to the family. And a lot of those sports companies are focusing on building their brands at the earliest years. So there's tremendous synergies, nothing we will announce today, but we're very excited at the road map of different kind of experiences we could create together.
Stuart Brown, a private investor. My 1-year-old son is delighted about the news of Bluey coming to Toniebox. He would like to know when that will start shipping in the U.K. And also, Bluey, you've gone with the figurines as a 3-pack, I believe, retailing at the pricing I've seen $70 in the U.S. What does that say about the pricing power and Bluey, the character that you've gone with a 3-figurine pack at a higher price point than is traditionally the case for the average figurine?
Yes, fandom. Look, we realized when we work closely with our retail partners and all this that the individual figurine is $20 -- so we retail it at 3x $60. And ultimately, that was almost a void that there's a higher price point giftable item. So it actually -- and we've started to build this more and more because right now, as a gift giver, you give the $100 or above $100. And then you are like with $20 item. So we wanted and we felt Bluey is also if there is an IP, and that's a great one to introduce that. So commercial aspects, there's also planning aspects to that, but we're very excited about.
Delivery. Delivery date for his son, he cannot come home without...
Lucia, you can help us out.
So for the U.K., we're going to start in mid-August preorder.
So for those who couldn't hear, Lucia, by the way, our General Manager for the U.K. here at tonies. Mid-August for a preorder date, right? The U.S.
The U.S. has now also to strengthen our relationship. We have a first-to-market experience with [ Target ] on July 19, starting there, and then the other retailers will join after a little bit.
And preorder.
And preorder is on right now. So yes, you can go on tonis.com and also at Target and preorder right now. They're selling.
Trevor Fitzgerald from Mirabaud Asset Management. Just a follow-up question, a bit of housekeeping about the lifetime value of the cohorts. You've got a number there of EUR 1 billion to EUR 1.5 billion, but that's a pretty wide range for something you've got a very good idea of. Why so wide a range? And when it comes to lifetime value, what's your definition of that lifetime? Remember that 4.5 years before.
Hansjorg.
I'll give it a shot. The reason why there is a range, EUR 1 billion to EUR 1.5 billion is because the EUR 1 billion is associated with the cohorts that we have already acquired, whereas the EUR 1.5 billion is associated with the additional cohort that we expect to acquire throughout this year. That's the main difference that describes the ends of both ranges.
There was a second part of it or...
Lifetime value before we had 4.5 years? Or is that a time because obviously, a lifetime is a long time.
Yes. We usually express this is in simplified terms to make this easy to communicate and understand. 20 tonies per box through a 4.5-year period. Of course, that's more than 20 if the lifetime is longer. But that's the easiest and I think most adequate number to compute or model with.
More questions from the room over there. Now the hands goes up. Maybe we go over here real quick for you, Ramon. Microphone is coming.
Ramon Huber from Limmat Capital in Zurich. So I have a question for all of you. You have to be ready and I'm going to see who is raising the first hand. Who will still work at Tonies in 2030? I think Tobias was the first.
But I also extended my contract first.
I know...
It's Thomas from Premier Miton. Given you're officially in 10 countries, but unofficially in 100, you obviously tolerate a bit of a gray market. But I just wonder how you feel about the gray market in general, in particular, as you launch the new box and given its selective launch, there's a risk of it being transmitted across borders, maybe more than you're currently comfortable with, with your existing portfolio.
Thank you. Not worried at all. I honestly say this. We've received this question before. We looked at the data ourselves. Let me give you some real interesting perspective. When we look at gray -- you call it gray market you could say second market -- secondhand market, right? There's an interesting data point here. If you buy your box and usually that secondhand market box comes with an assortment of Tonies. There is an interesting thing to watch. Kids, households with a secondhand market box immediately have a higher listening time than someone who probably buys a new box with only 1 or 2 figureines. And I think by now, after this day, you know why. Because they have immediately some more figureines they can actually select from the probability that they find something that they really hooked with is higher.
Secondly, and I think we also referred this a couple of times throughout the day, we have this built-in newness freshness. I think you had also expressed this so nicely. The ecosystem feels new almost every day because every day, there is something new coming. And I can tell you when there is the new Moana movie coming to the box offices, whether you have actually a second market or first market box, that kid wants to listen to that Tonie the moment the movie releases in the cinema. So the buying pattern of Tonies is similar. So we actually look at a secondary market box as something that completely works in our favor. And so this is why I'm also not at all worried about this box having any cannibalization effect on this box or any other box or market. But I love the question. Thank you.
Gerhard.
The gross profit margin is one of your key levers for the margin improvement. And just a question about the memory prices currently. I think they're hitting Nintendo quite hard. How are you looking into memory prices this year, next year? And how can you deal with that?
Yes. Maybe let me start off with this year, the memory price dynamic is included in our guidance. And our ambition that 2030 or midterm target that we expressed is based off of today's market prices, basically priced in. Of course, as I've already alluded to in the earnings calls, we have a toolkit, right, of maneuverability. We have experience, knowledge and production capacity for different technologies in terms of memory chips, and we can switch depending on which market prices break out or not. So that's the first. Then we have, of course, our long lead inventory buys and our existing inventory. Last resort, as always, we have the pricing power that we demonstrated should we need it.
Can you guys just flesh out a little bit the reason why you guys have a very wide moat around your business, i.e., what's going to stop any other competitor from stealing some of the growth that you guys have lined up nicely in front of you from a market standpoint? How is it that you're going to retain your market share and protect yourselves against any potential threats from competitors?
Yes. I think I hope you have actually seen it at some point throughout the day, right? This is -- we have various ways how we look at our competitive moats. The #1 moat is the 12 million boxes and the ever accelerating flywheel in obviously, boxes getting into households. And let me be very clear, the 12 million boxes that we have in households today, it's actually over 12 million as we speak. It's something that we have built over the lifetime of 10 years. When Patrick and the team started in 2016, obviously, that was the first commercial moment for us in the fourth quarter of 2016. And then look at -- we are showing this in many of the interactions with you. Every fourth quarter, we are actually making a significant jump in box activations because fourth quarter for us is box quarter. And this is because, obviously, Christmas and Black Friday, Cyber Monday, all these events that we have, and you cannot compress this. It's hard to compress this.
So we are going to continue obviously growing, and we're looking back at 10 years of execution of that growth, number one. Number two, the content library. I think by now, it's clear. We are creating amazing content, unique content. We talked about some exclusivity that we have on some of the leading IPs in the world. Number three, our international expansion strategy. There is no global competitor, period. There is no company that is in all the markets that we are in. And we are planning to literally release the brake and grow significantly faster in more markets.
So -- and then let me actually finish with one thought. You saw the number as well today, 570 million households in our age range as households with kids in our age range. That is a number we are really going after. So competition might be interesting for some of you, and it is to a degree also for us. But we look really forward and we see this huge opportunity, this blue ocean to actually use your word that we still can go after. So I'm extremely confident about the growth strategy and the moats that we have built.
Last question?
Yes, maybe one more question from you.
Stuart Brown again. At what point does a Hasbro or a Mattel, particularly given some of you and your colleagues' recent career experience, at what point do those companies decide to stop licensing out and just decide to take the company themselves?
The company.
Take Tony?
As in buy out.
I mean, first of all, I can't comment on Hasbro's strategy, and I'm pretty sure Ginny wouldn't either. You would need to look and talk to them about it. I want to make one thing very clear, and I really mean it, and I say this for all 4 of us here on the stage. Look, when I say we are building a global icon, and we have a generational opportunity to build a global icon. I'm not actually looking at someone taking us out to use your words in the next 1 or 2 years. We have an opportunity here at tonies to actually create something generationally, and we are here on stage for the years to come to actually take that opportunity.
Thank you. Thank you very much for the great questions. Thank you for coming. For those in the room, please mingle with us now. And over a coffee, we have this beautiful, as we call it, immersion room over there where you can actually just get a feeling of how tonies really work in our day-to-day lives at our customers. Thanks again. Thanks, everyone, on the screens. It was great, and talk to you soon.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
tonies — Analyst/Investor Day - tonies SE
Capital Market Day: tonies kündigt Toniebox Lite, exklusive IP-Deals, 2 neue Märkte bis 2027 und mittelfristiges Ziel >€1,4 Mrd. bei 16–18% EBITDA an.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Narrativ: tonies positioniert sich als „Ecosystem“-Marke (Device + Content + Daten) mit U.S.-First-Expansion, exklusiven Lizenzpartnerschaften und einem mittelfristigen Finanzziel, das Verdopplung von Umsatz und Profitabilität vorsieht.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Device-Strategie: Toniebox Lite als günstigerer, kompakter Zweit-Device‑Einstieg neben Toniebox 2 zur Beschleunigung der Penetration und Multi‑Device‑Nutzung.
- Content‑Moat: tonies Studio produziert exklusive Inhalte (z.B. Bluey, Pokémon) und verschiebt die Rolle von Lizenznehmer zu kreativer Partei/Urheber.
- International: U.S.-Erfolg als Blaupause; Ziel: ≥2 neue Märkte bis Ende 2027, Präsenz in allen großen Regionen bis 2030.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Produkt-Launch: Toniebox Lite kommt noch 2026 (marktselektiv); detaillierte Specs folgen vor dem Halbjahrescall am 20. Aug.
- Content-Timing: Bluey: UK‑Preorder Mitte August, US‑Einführung (Target First) ab 19. Juli; Pokémon-Exklusivformat geplant.
- Finanzziele: Bestätigung 2026‑Guidance (>€760M Umsatz, 9–11% adj. EBITDA) und Midterm‑Ambition >€1,4Mrd Umsatz / 16–18% adj. EBITDA bis 2030.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Penetration: DACH 58% vs. USA ~12% – Management sieht DACH als Vorbild, erwartet aber niedrigere Endpunkte/andere Ramp‑Rates in neuen Märkten.
- Exklusivität: Partner wählen tonies für Reichweite und kontrollierte, exklusive Umsetzung; Vereinbarungen sind IP‑spezifisch und werthaltig.
- Finanz‑Klarheit: €1–1.5 Mrd. „Future Revenue“ erklärt durch bestehende Cohorts (+ erwartete Käufe in 2026); Range = mit/ohne erwartete Neuakquisitionen dieses Jahres.
- Risiken & Input‑Fakten: Fragen zu Graumarkt, Speicherpreise und Sports‑Roadmap wurden gestellt; Management sieht Graumarkt neutral/akzelerierend, Memory‑Risiken im Toolkit eingeplant.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Kapitalmarkttag liefert klare Wachstums‑ und Marge‑Thesen: Lite‑Device, exklusive Inhalte und bewährte Cohort‑Economics sind die Haupt‑Treiber; Zielwerte erscheinen erreichbar, aber abhängig von internationaler Execution, Input‑Kosten und Lieferketten. Aktionäre bekommen konkrete Produkt‑ und Marktkatalysatoren sowie eine wiederholte Guidance‑Bestätigung.
tonies — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and good afternoon to -- from wherever you are joining us virtually today. And welcome to the tonies' earnings call for the first quarter 2026, highlighting once again a great start to the year.
With me today are our CEO, Tobias Wann; and CFO, Hansjorg Muller. As always, Tobias will walk you through last quarter's business highlights. Hansjorg will walk you through the financials before we finish with the confirmation of our full year 2026 guidance. After the presentation, we will continue with the Q&A session, and we invite you to submit your written questions through the Q&A function during the presentation already.
We have an exciting story to share with you today. So without further ado, I will hand the floor over to Tobias to kick things off.
Thank you, Moritz. A warm welcome from me as well. Let me start where we always start, with the platform we've built, because that platform keeps getting stronger and stronger. We've sold around 12.2 million Tonieboxes activated in more than 100 countries, and there are more than 165 million tonies out there. If every tonies were a person, they would form one of the 8 most populous countries on the planet. This is the world's leading platform for kids' audio, and this platform grows quarter after quarter, year after year. Every Toniebox we sell is a gateway to a trusted relationship that lasts for years to come, a product that genuinely earns its place in family life almost 5 hours a week every single day.
The first quarter is usually our smallest by revenue but Q1 tells us a lot about the state of our business. Q1 2026 tells us that the momentum we built in '25 is carrying forward. In the first 3 months of 2026, we grew revenue by 35% in constant currency to EUR 126 million. Every single market delivered high double-digit growth: DACH grew 28%; North America grew 34%; rest of world grew 53%. As our platform grows, our installed base grows, we lock in future revenue. With a strong start to the year, we are fully on track to deliver our full year guidance. 2026 is shaping up to be another year of strong profitable growth for tonies.
We've had a busy and productive first quarter. Let's have a look at what stood out. Q1 was a quarter of strong execution across our business. In North America, we continued our remarkable growth trajectory. In DACH, we showed once again that our most established markets still has significant room to expand. And in Rest of World, we are building on the same momentum we've seen in our bigger markets not too long ago.
We continue to grow through partnerships that open up new territory. One standout example, a collaboration with the German Professional Football League. Our DFL game adds a new genre to the Tonieplay roster sports.
In addition, our products are being recognized by the industry's most respective voices, including not one, but 2 recent Red Dot awards, one for the Toniebox, the other for Tonieplay. On top of this, we have further strengthened our leadership team. A month ago, Mark McColgan joined us as General Manager, North America. He previously served as General Manager of Mattel U.S., one of the biggest roles in our industry. Mark joining tonies shows that we are competing at the highest level and underscores our ambition of becoming a global icon.
Our strong start to the year goes beyond business success because what's behind these numbers are countless moments of joy in millions of family households around the globe. At tonies, we spark magic moments for our little listeners. I only lead one tonie figurine to prove this. This incredibly cute puppy cannot only sing and rhyme. He also has sparked more than 200 million minutes of joy in Q1 alone. That is more than 4 years of listening time every single day from January 1 to March 31. I know these numbers are hard to grasp, but they are all the more rewarding when you imagine what they mean for children and parents alike, peace of mind.
Let's return to more tangible business highlights, starting in North America. Only 1 year ago, we were the #6 company in U.S. preschool toys, 6. In Q1 2026, we've risen to #2 behind only PAW Patrol. And not only that, no other company has added more revenue year-over-year in preschool toys. We are the top gaining property and manufacturer in the category. From 6 to 2 within 12 months, that's a giant leapfrog. And it reflects what we have built in the U.S. over the past years, a brand that families love, a product that time and time again has earned its place in family homes and a retail presence that puts us exactly where parents shop. Yes, we are growing fast in North America. Yet when you consider how many households we haven't yet reached, there is even so much more potential in this market.
Turning to DACH, our most established region where brand awareness stands at 80%. In Germany, tonies is the #1 preschool toy property in manufacturing. And we are not just leading, we are adding more revenue than any other property or manufacturer. In other words, we are leading by miles and pulling further ahead. We have held the #1 position for more than 12 consecutive quarters, and we intend to hold it for much longer because we will keep delivering with new products, new content, new reasons for families to join, to stay and to come back.
And then Rest of World, 3 markets, different stages of maturity, but one shared result, tonies is the brand families reach for, especially in preschool toys. In this category, we are the #1 property in the U.K., in France and in Australia. #1. we're just getting started, a very rare combination. Because in each of those markets, we are also adding more revenue than all other properties. The picture is the same for manufacturer rankings. We are leading in France, one of Europe's most competitive markets. And in Australia, we've reached the top within just 18 months. That's the result of our playbook and that is global icon material. What excites me most is how early we still are in each of those territories. The positions we hold today are the foundation, not the ceiling.
Our brand thrives most at major commercial events. With an earlier Easter this year, Q1 gave us the chance to show what tonies is capable of when we show up globally, one voice, one campaign across every market at once. This spring, we dialed up the joy, the same creative direction, the same spring energy tailored to each channel and market. In DACH alone, we distributed around 500,000 catalogs to our retail partners. That kind of reach at that kind of scale is only possible because we've built the retail presence, the partnerships and the brand recognition to make it land, a global campaign with a local feel generating more than 12 million impressions from Melbourne to London, from Paris to Los Angeles. And families responded exactly as we hope. Easter boosted our revenues on 3 continents.
Now let's talk about partnerships. Partnerships can open up entirely new territories. Our collaboration with the DFL, the German Football League, does exactly that. Together, we have launched the first ever Tonieplay sports game, Stadion Duell: Bundesliga. It's a multiplayer experience available across all our markets with the added appeal of a favorite team experience in DACH. It's a new game mechanic designed to travel to other leagues and to other sports. This is not just a licensing deal. It's another proof of concept for what Tonieplay is, a platform for interactive play that starts with audio and reaches far beyond it. So we are now in sports and in a way, that's a logical next step because tonies and sports go way back.
We've been supporting the Minnesota Timberwolves at the NBA and our local Bundesliga team, Fortuna Dusseldorf, for quite some time. With more and more collaborations, we're extending that spirit globally beyond the game itself. In Minneapolis, we've had in-arena brand activations with the Timberwolves who are currently making a deep playoff run. In Auckland, creator and local tonies star Emma Memma joined more than 1,000 families for a picnic at Eden Park, New Zealand's National Stadium. In Dusseldorf, we hosted a children's press conference together with Fortuna Dusseldorf, the kids asked all the questions. And I was joined by Mario Gotze, World Cup winner and tonies fan himself, for a visit to Clementine Children's Hospital in Frankfurt, where we gave away tonies product.
Q1 is also the season of industry events. This year, again, we showed up with energy. Nuremberg, London, New York, Las Vegas, tonies was everywhere, winning some of the most prestigious awards our industry has to offer, like the ToyAward for My First Tonies in Nuremberg.
Across every booth, our childhood-long product journey was front and center. Whether it's My First Tonies, Cuddle Tonies or Tonieplay, the industry is paying attention. Retail partners have just been as excited as families. Feeling this buzz is -- to kick off the year is never getting old to me.
And our products are award-winning even beyond our industry. This quarter, we want to highlight not one, but 2 awards for our design. The Red Dot Design Award is one of the most respected design recognitions in the world. Toniebox 2 received the Red Dot Award. Tonieplay received Red Dot Best of the Best, the highest distinction this honor offers. Two products, 2 awards, one clear signal. We are not just building great experiences, we are building them in a smart and beautiful way.
Advancing our business also means setting up the organization the right way. And the right way starts with the right people. I'm excited that 4 weeks ago, Mark McColgan joined us as our new General Manager, North America. Mark spent more than 25 years at Mattel, most recently as GM for their U.S. business, which generates revenue of more than $5 billion. This appointment shows the appeal of our platform, our vision and our strategy, not only to consumers and investors, but to top talent in our industry. North America is key to our global growth strategy and Mark brings a track record of creating affinity for beloved brands. That's exactly what we need to scale our next phase of growth in the U.S.
And with this appointment also comes an important transition. Christoph Frehsee, who joined our Management Board last year, will now fully focus on his Chief Revenue Officer role, driving commercial excellence across all our markets.
With that, I hand over to Hansjorg, who will present you the details of our Q1 results.
Thank you, Tobias. Let me take you through the numbers now. But before turning to Q1 2026, let me briefly recap our full year 2025 performance, not to repeat what we've already covered in April, but because the profitability trajectory is an important context for everything that follows. Our focus is on scaling tonies sustainably and profitably.
Last year, we achieved strong pipeline growth whilst expanding our margin above our guidance range despite macro headwinds. This achievement shows what tonies is capable of. We're scaling and we're accelerating margin growth simultaneously. Our business model is designed to fuel exactly that. Conscious will only report our margins again in August, we foresee such a development for this year, too.
Now let's look at Q1 2026. It's been a great start and our top line growth shows strong momentum, but let's also put the size of particularly Q1 and Q2 into perspective. With 50% of our business conducted in Q4, we are, of course, happy with our Q1 results and they confirm our outlook on the year.
Group revenue came in at EUR 126 million. This growth of 35% in constant currency was the result of high double-digit contributions from all regions. The one number that really stands out here is our DACH growth rate of 28%. It's an outstanding result in such an established market. We're now up to EUR 50 million in Q1 revenue as momentum and adoption of product innovation continued and the shift of Easter into Q1 provided an additional tailwind. North America delivered EUR 48 million, up 34% in constant currency.
So in our most important growth market, we're continuing the momentum we built through 2025. Quite literally, that is because our new customers that joined our ecosystem in Q4 showed particularly high engagement during the first months of 2026, actively building their collections and driving long-term value.
Rest of world surged by 53% to EUR 28 million. This was driven by increased market penetration, retail expansion and new product launches. Tobias has already discussed how fast we're growing across the individual markets, it's clearly reflected in our top line. Together, our markets outside DACH make up 60% of our revenue share. This is on par with last year's level and that's despite the strong performance in DACH and headwinds from unfavorable FX on the top line. tonies is a global company with a global footprint.
The next slide contains one of my favorite figures. Looking at our category split, Toniebox revenue grew over 60% year-over-year in constant currency. What you see here is the Toniebox 2 impact in full force, but also considering that in Q1 2025, the Toniebox 2 launch was already known to retail and the environment. So sales were already slowing down. So not entirely comparable like-for-like versus the prior year. It's a great result, nevertheless, I have to point out, and it reinforces the strength of our business model, once again, the box growth locking in future revenue from above this box sales.
At the same time, we've seen strong demand for tonies with 30% growth and close to EUR 100 million in revenue this quarter. Accessories and Digital grew 18% and remained a steady contributor as our platform expands. As a result, our revenue mix shifted slightly with Tonieboxes gaining share due to the reasons just mentioned. This shift is as planned and as mentioned, specific to Q1 from a year-on-year perspective and the margin mix implications from this shift are as expected and will be shared as we report H1 in August.
Talking just about growth across all areas wouldn't point a complete picture of what we've been working on over the past few months. Because in the current macro environment, I think it's very important for us to emphasize resilience as well. It's a structural feature of our business. Whilst the situation around fluctuating tariffs may have stabilized to an extent, we are closely monitoring a range of macro effects. We are using our toolbox to optimize production costs and we're watching carefully how consumer sentiment and FX effects develop.
But here's what we do know. On tariffs, we have a stable response in place with sourcing flexibility across our production network and commercial levers that we have proven effective before. On memory chip prices resulting from demand and supply peaks due to the industry's focus on AI, we have flexibility and choice in memory technology and box production. We've secured box and memory inventory positions. And if necessary, we have pricing options at hand to protect margins so that further volatilities can be covered from within our guidance.
With regards to consumer sentiment, our category is and remains resilient. Families do not compromise on quality experiences for their children. Our platform drives loyalty and our pipeline -- our IP pipeline gives us lots of reasons to be optimistic about even stronger customer acquisition and engagement in the months to come.
And finally, as I mentioned on previous calls, on FX effects, whilst we do see effects on the top line, on the bottom line, our business model and distribution of currencies across revenue and cost provides natural hedges. Our financing -- And our financing structure gives us flexibility on working capital.
To recap, our transition from last year to this year, 2025 proved we can execute in volatile conditions. 2026 shapes up to be no different.
And with that, back to Tobias and our outlook.
Thank you, Hansjorg. Our outlook is indeed the last agenda item. Before we head into the Q&A, I can be very brief on this. We are confirming our full year guidance for 2026. We expect another year of strong profitable growth with group revenue growing more than 20% to above EUR 760 million. In North America, our most important growth market, we expect revenue growth of more than 30% in constant currency. And we are guiding an adjusted EBITDA margin between 9% and 11%.
I often say that we at tonies are just getting started. That is especially true when we're talking about Q1. We are off to a strong start, but as always, the year will be one in the back half, particularly in Q4. There are a lot of reasons to be confident. We at tonies know how to execute when it matters. We've done it year after year and we are building towards that again.
On that note, back to you, Moritz.
Thank you, Tobias. As a reminder, if you have any questions please post them to the Q&A function. And the first questions are already in. Your guidance implies adding over EUR 130 million in absolute revenue this year. With this strong start into the year, don't you think your current guidance is a bit too conservative?
Thank you for the question. Let me take this one. So let me start with this. As you said, yes, we had a strong start into the year, driven by really, really great execution across all our markets. That said, it's really important to keep Q1 in perspective. It is historically our smallest quarter, so the results should not be extrapolated linearly to the full year.
Our revenue profile remains heavily weighted towards the second half. So Q3 and Q4 will again be primary drivers for our 2026 performance. The year-over-year comparison also benefits from timing. We had Easter early this year in Q1 and we had in Q2 of 2025, so we pulled some seasonal demand forward. But even if you're accounting for all that, we're very pleased with where we stand. This quarter, as Hansjorg and I have said, show real brand resilience. And we show this resilience in a macroeconomic environment that remains challenging, let's be clear, and with consumer sentiment still be subdued.
Thank you. The next question is on warrant expiration and dilution. The noncash revaluation of your public warrants heavily impacted the reported net profit or EPS in full year 2025 as the share price appreciated. With these warrants set to expire in November 2026, what is management's projected dilution scenario for the capital structure if they are fully exercised in the coming months?
This is a good one for you, Hansjorg.
Yes, we can talk, I think, half hour on this. But let me recap first. The exercise of the warrants actually requires a share price to exceed EUR 11.50. And whilst I can't predict the share price, this then also means that there is also a scenario where the warrants expire without value, meaning without any consequence to cash or treasury shares for us. So that's just one scenario.
In a potential exercise scenario where there could be potential dilution, so in case the share price exceeds the strike price, I would recommend to evaluate this to 2 distinct lenses. So the impact on total issued share capital versus the impact on shares currently outstanding and we report these numbers. So based on our total shares or issued share capital of approximately 126 million shares, the exercise of warrants will not result in an issuance of new shares. And as a result, there is no dilutive effect on the currently outstanding shares.
Based on our -- from a perspective of shares outstanding, which excludes treasury shares, the exercise of warrants could result in a dilutive effect for existing shareholders as treasury shares are transferred to free float. Overall, though, I really want to point out that all of this is a positive dynamic for us because this will clean up our capital structure by the end of the year. It will make our financing costs much more transparent, meaning we will not have to go through revaluations or noncash revaluations of financial instruments that are dependent on share price. So simplification for us going forward, plus ability to satisfy any obligation via our existing treasury shares. That's probably the key message.
Thank you. Now we have 2 questions on freight and supply chain and the situation in the Middle East. The first one is, this global energy shock has more than doubled the price of oil and gas. How significantly have fuel surcharges and shipping bottlenecks impacted your freight costs in Q1? And is this elevated logistics baseline fully baked into your 9% to 11% adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year?
And then the second one, do you think profitability could be burdened should the conflict in the Middle East hold on for the rest of the year in terms of energy, freight, transactional FX effects? And how are you already seeing broad uncertainty spreading to your key markets that is waiting on demand?
Okay. Great questions, which I at least generally expected. So let me take them. First of all, yes, global energy costs have gone up and that always affects freight. But the material impact on our logistics is contained. Our sea freight costs are in line with what we planned. And we monitor those surcharges very closely. The key point is you can fit several hundred thousands of figurines into one single container. So even when the freight rate moves, the per unit on a figurine is negligible.
And on routing, we have already made the strategic decision a while ago to ship via the Cape of Good Hope. And that decision literally quarters ago has now shielded us from any volatility around the Suez Canal. So I can tell you today, our goods are flowing steadily, no delays, and we continue to work under long-term shipping contracts with our partners. And we always continuously benchmark those terms and rates to make sure they remain competitive.
And to add to the second question, as I said, I mean, with regards to the impact, situation in the Middle East, I can very confidently say that we do not see negative impact from depressed consumer sentiment right now. And I mean, this again highlights the resilience that we also described in the presentation and the independence of our business model in challenging economic environments.
Thank you. The next one is on the convertible buyback. You bought back your convertible bond. Why is that? Aren't there better uses for excess cash? What is the impact on your financing costs?
Hansjorg?
I don't think capital structure was such an exciting topic, but happy to expand on this. And actually, similar to the warrant question, there is basically good news and simplification for us in this as a net result, but if I go step by step here for the convertible buyback. So we received the conversion notice from the convertible holder and in accordance to the notes and the terms of that instrument. The convertible bond was then redeemed through settlement of treasury shares. And as a result of that, the transaction actually didn't involve any material cash outflow from the company's perspective.
But what this does then do, this redemption contributes to even further simplification of our capital structure, just like the explanation for the warrants end of this year. So greater clarity on the equity base, simultaneously reducing our overall leverage, reducing future interest expense associated with the coupon payments. So all in all, a good event for us.
Next one on the international expansion and Pokemon. Could the Pokemon market launch in summer be a good facilitator to enter the Japanese market?
Yes. So yes, let me be clear, Pokemon is or was initially a Japanese IP. But what's absolutely fascinating for everyone who follows Pokemon and that IP is how this has now actually arrived at a global scale, how big the global pool of this IP is. So do not forget Pokemon is the highest grossing IP globally. It is majorly attractive in all of our current markets, all of them. And clearly, that's I think, where you're leading beyond the markets that we're in. So we expect this, as we call it, tempo launch to be one of many cornerstones of our customer acquisition and retention success in 2026. It pulls in both little listeners who are starting to engage with our products and as well as triggering nostalgia memories for the parent generation. That will be really, really interesting.
So -- But to come back to your question, please understand I cannot comment here today on our internationalization road map. But I invite you, whoever asked that question and everyone else, to come to our Capital Market Day in London where we will actually share a bit more about our plans to expand further globally.
Okay. The next question is on Tonieplay. Can you share early attach rates among TB 2 households? You mentioned 50% Tonieplay activation among 6 years and older households in full year 2025. Has that held or improved in Q1?
Yes. I -- So we have shared this in earlier communications, but we also shared that it will take time to build an installed base for TB2, right? You need Toniebox 2 for Tonieplay. I confirm Tonieplay has shown strong engagement metrics with users. So the people who buy it, love it. And we see attachment rates that are very strong, exactly in that age range where we want them to be strong. We've confirmed this trend in -- throughout Q1. But please understand that at this point, we will not share any dedicated segment metrics for Tonieplay.
Okay. The next one on EBITDA margin. Should we expect EBITDA margin to exceed prior year already in H1? Or will margin expansion be back-end loaded towards H2 given the current macro headwinds and tariff impact?
Hansjorg, sounds like a question for you.
I'll happily take it. Yes, I think there is already a part of the answer in the question, which -- Q1, Q2, smaller quarters, smaller baseline also in prior year, more volatility. Typically, we generate most of our revenue volume and also profitability towards the latter quarters. A similar pattern applies to this year. So I don't want to guide for H1 profitability right now, but I would view this in the same principle. And of course, independent from H1 for the full year, of course, where -- as we've indicated in our full year guidance, we are aiming to show operating leverage, improved profitability.
So for H1, just a couple of call-outs. Of course, now Q1, Q2, there are 100% of tariffs applicable in North America. This was not the case in Q1 last year. So there are some year-on-year impacts that will shape that. But for the full year, which I'd much rather look at, this balances out much better, and we will see a year-on-year profitability increase.
Next one is on licensing. What are typical barriers to licensing agreements? How do Creative Tonies substitute for official tonies releases?
Yes. Actually, I mean, I can clearly tell you, we don't really have barriers when it comes to licensing. And maybe just to tell you, we have a licensing pipeline that is built 24 months in advance. So it shows you how we think about licensing and how our IP license partners think about tonies. And that said, there is currently no IP we cannot publish. The theoretical only barrier could be that there are conditions asked that we, as tonies, would consider unreasonable or off-market rates. But usually, I have to tell you it's the other way around. I mean it is a lot more IP license holders that want to get into the tonies ecosystems that we then can actually carry forward.
The next one is on Google Trends. tonies is very cyclical. If you look at something like Google Trends, what are the plans to reduce this cyclicality?
Hansjorg, I think you could take this one.
Yes. I think some of the initiatives were -- about here are already visible, right? This is largely portfolio and product dependent, right? So we have various initiatives. We've seen a bigger -- slightly bigger Easter impact this year, but also we are through our age group expansion now present in more, call it, use cases. So with that, we have more variety in product, which is applicable on a more continuous basis as just in a holiday period. That's probably my general view on that, but happy to chime in, Tobias.
No, I agree with this. Nothing to add.
Next one is also on internationalization. Can you provide more details on your road map for entering additional countries, specifically, which markets are of highest priority? And when do you expect additional market entries?
Yes, I completely understand the question. I mean every quarter, every full year presentation, we're showing you the map of the 100 -- plus 100 countries where the Tonieboxes are activated. But as I just said, I think, 2 or 3 questions before, today I don't want to comment on this specific question, but we will clearly speak to this during our Capital Market Day in London.
Okay. Next one on marketing. You have mentioned a lot of marketing brand investments into sports events. Can you elaborate on the evolution of marketing expenses in 2026?
Okay. Let me -- Maybe let me get that straight that those sponsorships, these are very, very, very small numbers compared to our marketing budget. Actually, we are doing this not so much from a commercial point of view. There is also -- as we had said, Fortuna Dusseldorf is our local hero club, and we are a Dusseldorf-based company. So don't look at this as a full-blown Bundesliga sponsorship.
But I think in general, obviously, all of our costs, marketing costs have been factored into our financial planning and clearly into our guidance. So at this very moment and during this point in time, we do not offer any specific info for marketing spending. But as I said, it's in line. It's exactly -- we are progressing exactly as we are planning. And so to basically sum this up, you always prioritize brand and category branding and you've seen -- hopefully seen that we've been very, very efficient at doing this.
Okay. Next one is on Pokemon again. Could you already comment on the initial performance and wholesale uptake of your Pokemon licensed content?
So if anyone on this call has any doubts about the pull factor for Pokemon, I think the amount of questions are clearly proving the opposite. But as I said, it's too early. It's too early to comment in detail about Pokemon. It's coming. We are very excited. I think I've said on the full year call a couple of weeks ago, we are the very first company ever in this -- I mean, biggest global IP. But still, we are the first company ever to actually produce and then obviously have audio content for the Pokemon figurine. So it will be very, very exciting. But I ask you for a couple more weeks until it hits the shelves and then I assume a couple of more months until we'll be able to talk about it.
Okay. Next one on growth drivers. Can you elaborate on what should be the main growth drivers in H2 regarding the difficult comps after the TB2 launch in H3 2025? What about growth drivers in 2027?
Difficult coms or comps?
Sorry, comparables.
Comparables. Hansjorg, do you want to take this one?
Sure, happy to. So remember, we're not just about box. It's also the entire ecosystem that surrounds that. So both from a penetration perspective, there is ample upside. And yes, we've had a, call it, box upgrade beat in 2025. But you've seen us build around that. In fact, we've actually launched 3 new categories around the new box, right? And all of them performing well. So what's happening beyond that, I think you already know that this year, we have, I call those super mega IP launches, that are significant growth vectors.
And there's also some initiatives that we are -- that we have in the pipeline that we're, of course, not yet ready to talk to here. So couples -- coupling the penetration upside, the internationalization upside that you mentioned, plus the new range of categories that we continue to expand, provides ample upside and actually requires our focus to focus to tap into the most important and promising ones.
Okay. Let's finish with this one. Let's be honest, tonies is also for parents. When will you finally get a '90s tonies, Bravo Hits tonies or similar for parents?
Love it, I love the question. And I agree. I agree. It is also for us here, the parents, the adults, at least I have -- I don't know how many boxes I have at home, obviously, I probably don't count as average. But let me actually say this. We just talked about entering sports today and how interesting this is as a field for us to get into, right? Because you know how fascinating sports is all across the globe and throughout obviously, all the different disciplines. So we'll focus for now, obviously, in getting sports right and everything else we just talked about. But this is what I like about this question, music is also super interesting. And there may be a point in time where we will double down on music. When it's the time, we'll tell you, I promise.
Okay. This concludes our Q&A session. In case of open questions, we will follow up in the next couple of days. And before Tobias finishes with the key takeaways, let me quickly highlight the next events to come. On May 19, the 3 of us will be at the Berenberg European Conference in New York, followed by Hansjorg attending Cantor's European Summit in Hamburg on Thursday next week. On May 28, we will organize a Non-Deal Roadshow with Kepler in Paris, and I would join the virtual Nextcap's Forum presented by ODDO on June 12. Feel free to reach out to any of the brokers to schedule a meeting.
The next big milestone on the event side will be our first Capital Markets Day since IPO on June 18 in London. We have a great agenda in mind with full Management Board attendance in person on that day. In-person registration is already possible through the Financial Calendar section on our IR website. So Tobias, please take over again for the key takeaways and final remarks.
Yes. And just let me say on the Capital Markets Day, I really hope I see many, many of you there. And as Moritz said, it will be also an opportunity to engage with the entire Management Board. So you know Hansjorg now and myself from many, many interactions, but we will have Ginny McCormick there, our Chief Experience Officer, and before mentioned, Christoph Frehsee, our Chief Revenue Officer. So it's really also a unique opportunity to meet and engage with us.
That said, thank you all for the great questions, the engaging discussion. As always, let me close with a brief summary, 5 takeaways from a strong start to 2026. First, our Q1 performance was fueled by all segments and categories with standout results in DACH and in the Toniebox category. Second, we've strengthened our leadership team. Mark McColgan has joined us as General Manager, North America. Third, we are confirming our full year guidance as we deliver another year of profitable growth. Fourth, as I just said, at our Capital Market Day in June, we'll provide more details on our 2026 and beyond road map. And I'm really looking forward to seeing many of you in person at London's Science Museum.
And fifth, tonies remains resilient and well positioned for 2026 and beyond. We have an outstanding product pipeline for the rest of the year with lots of exciting launches. We've entered the sports category. There will be Pokemon and there will be even more. Stay tuned.
For now, thank you all for joining today's call, for your continued interest and for your trust in tonies. Take care, and goodbye.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
tonies — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Q1 stark: Umsatz €126 Mio (+35% ccy), Wachstum in allen Regionen, Guidance bestätigt; Fokus auf Produkt‑/Lizenzexpansion und Nordamerika.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: €126 Mio (+35% in Constant Currency)
- DACH: €50 Mio (+28%)
- Nordamerika: €48 Mio (+34% in ccy)
- Toniebox: Kategorie +60% YoY; Tonies‑Inhalte ~€100 Mio (+30%)
- Geografie: Rest of World €28 Mio (+53%); außerhalb DACH ~60% des Umsatzes
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Globaler Ausbau: Priorität auf Nordamerika‑Skalierung mit neuem GM (Mark McColgan) zur Beschleunigung von Marktanteil und Retail‑Präsenz.
- Produkt & Content: Toniebox 2 und Tonieplay treiben Penetration; Sport‑Genre (DFL) und Pokémon als Groß‑IP‑Treiber.
- Organisation: Führung gestärkt, CRO fokussiert auf kommerzielle Exzellenz; Kapitalstruktur laufend vereinfacht.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Guidance: Bestätigung: Jahresumsatz >20% auf >€760 Mio; Adjusted EBITDA 9–11%.
- Timing: Saisonal starkes H2/Q4; Q1 nicht linear auf das Jahr übertragbar.
- Risiken: Tarife, FX, Logistik und Memory‑Preise erwähnt; Management hat Vorräte, Sourcing‑Flexibilität und Preisoptionen als Abfederung.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Warrants & Dilution: Ausübung nur bei Kurs >€11,50; bei Vollausübung keine neuen Aktien auf Issues‑Basis, mögliche Verwässerung nur über Freigabe von Treasury‑Aktien; Ziel: Vereinfachung Bilanz.
- Logistik & MENA: Freight‑Impact begrenzt, Routing via Kap der Guten Hoffnung reduziert Suez‑Risiko; aktuell keine nachweisliche Nachfrageeintrübung.
- Profitabilität & Timing: EBITDA‑Expansion erwartet für das Jahr; H1 dürfte volatiler sein, Margenwirkung vorrangig in H2.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Tonies liefert ein solides Wachstumsstartsignal und bestätigt die Jahresziele; Hauptchancen sind internationale Penetration und starke IP‑Starts, Hauptrisiken bleiben Saisonalität, Tarife und FX—Management signalisiert jedoch praktikable Absicherungen.
tonies — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning and good afternoon to from wherever you are joining us virtually today, and welcome to the tonies earnings call for the financial year 2025, a landmark year where tonies didn't just meet ambitious targets, but again redefined the global benchmark for connected screen-free children's entertainment.
My name is Moritz, and I'm the new Head of Investor Relations. Being born and raised literally 20 minutes from here, it is my pleasure joining tonies on its path from being a local hero to becoming a global icon.
With me today are our CEO, Tobias Wann; and CFO, Hansjorg Muller. Tobias will start with last year's business highlights, and Hansjorg will walk you through the financials before we finish with the outlook for the financial year 2026.
As usual, after the presentation, we will continue with the Q&A session, and we invite you to submit your written questions through the Q&A function during the presentation already.
I will hand over the floor to Tobias to kick things off.
Thank you, Moritz. Welcome to the team, also from my side again. And also a warm welcome to all of you on the call.
Today, we are indeed looking back on a landmark year for tonies. 2025 was full of success and innovation. We strengthened our leading market position as the global #1 for kids audio. All indicators point the right way. Our global footprint is getting deeper and deeper. Our installed base grows. We are now around 11.8 million Tonieboxes activated in more than 100 countries. And those Tonieboxes are in heavy use.
Our content portfolio appeals to kids in more ways than ever, inspiration, education, entertainment and now also gaming. But one thing is true as ever. It all starts with listening. And kids are listening close to 5 hours per week with their Toniebox, 5 hours of playtime, creativity and engagement over algorithms and screens.
2025 reinforced the appeal and unique position of tonies in family homes across the world. And it shows us that we are on the right track as we evolve tonies into a true global icon.
We once again delivered on our full year guidance. In fact, we surpassed our expectations slightly despite a challenging environment. At the top line, we saw double-digit growth across all markets, increasing group revenue by 36% at constant currencies, an outstanding achievement.
DACH returned to double-digit growth at high profitability levels. North America once again showed how much potential we can still capture, growing the largest region in our portfolio by more than 40%, simply remarkable. And a 68% growth rate in Rest of World speaks for itself, particularly when that region already delivers over EUR 140 million in revenue.
While we pursue a strong top line growth, we are also very focused on improving profitability. This year, we expanded our margin to 8.6%, a great success considering the environment we've been in.
You're familiar with the model that's behind the success. Our installed base grows exponentially in 2025, boosted by Toniebox 2. Every Toniebox we sell fuels subscription-like revenue through figurines and now games. The more boxes in homes, the more Tonies families buy year after year. That flywheel is spinning and it's spinning faster than ever. To give some perspective, not even 1.5 years ago, we celebrated 100 million Tonies sold over a span of roughly 8 years. Now 18 months later, we reached 156 million Tonies sold, 43 million Tonies just in 2025.
So we are clearly on a roll, and let's take a look now at the underlying highlights. First and foremost, 2025 was the year of our biggest innovation since the first Toniebox launched back in 2016. With Toniebox 2, we have created a foundation for the next chapter in our growth journey. We opened up our product portfolio for new target groups, new growth vectors and new opportunities. We performed in all of our markets. North America remained a growth engine despite U.S. tariffs. DACH showed how we grow even in a more established market. And Rest of World showed the momentum we built once we really get into a market.
One key to the success, strong partnerships, with retailers and with the world's greatest licensing partners. 2025 highlights include new formats with Disney and a landmark collaboration with Pokemon launching in 2026. Let's take a closer look. We have talked a lot about Toniebox 2 before and deservedly so. We had a beloved, innovative product in our first-generation Toniebox. It never went out of fashion. To the contrary, we built a global platform and a huge installed base with it. With Toniebox 2, we took this winning formula even further. We kept everything that made Toniebox 1 a global success, but added new dimensions of interaction and play that open up entirely new growth vectors for us. And once again, we fueled the growth of our installed base.
The nuances here matter because this drives both top and bottom line growth. Tonies has always been positioned right at that intersection of tech, toys and content. Now we are adding gaming to that mix. Alongside Toniebox 2, we introduced Tonieplay, a new category that perfectly complements our audio-first approach. We have created the foundation to bring so many new ways to our platform, to engage, to interact and to play.
So let's have a look at how our new flagship device introduced itself to kids and families around the globe. Toniebox 2 has become an immediate success. Our fantastic team worked really hard for that. Long before the first Toniebox 2 was sold, we made sure we had high availability across the world. Then, a flawless global launch drove adoption early on and fantastic customer feedback continued that dynamic.
In Q4, our most important quarter, around 80% of all Tonieboxes sold were Toniebox 2. We've stopped production of Toniebox 1. So it won't be long before every Toniebox sold is a Toniebox 2, which will fuel our flywheel even more.
Our promise to families is simple, we deliver on their real needs, inspiration, entertainment, education, experience that support good child development without screens. Imagination, independence and wonder before algorithms and endless growth. With Toniebox 2, we have taken that promise further. We have now the foundation to build an ecosystem that reaches humans throughout their first decade of life, younger and older kids alike. For us as a business, engaging families earlier and retaining them for longer means unlocking new growth vectors. We've added a younger age group to our target audience, kids between 1 and 3 years. To drive early adoption, we evolved both our product and our content portfolio. We now develop formats designed specifically for children aged 1 and up.
The highlight here, My First Tonies. The range of soft, squeezable characters built around the needs of the very youngest. Simple and tactile, they introduce first sounds and language in a gentle, playful way that resonates. In North America, where we first launched them, My First Tonies averaged 10% higher listening time with 1-year olds compared to Classic Tonies.
And keep in mind, My First Tonies offer relatively short content tailored to the attention span and instincts of toddlers. So what that tells us, babies and kids love their My First Tonies so much that they are listening to their favorite animals over and over again. Fully developed in-house, this new content format is now ready to win over children all over the world.
Now let's turn to the other end of the age range. Here, Tonieplay is our highlight, bringing interactive screen-free gaming to older kids. Approximately half of households with 6-plus year olds that upgraded to a Toniebox 2 have adopted Tonieplay already. That clearly shows the Toniebox can add new dimensions of wonder at a later stage in childhood.
And while Tonieplay is a full new category, we are also evolving other formats. Pocket Tonies, our Educational Content Tonies, Book Tonies, our long-form audio. Together, they now account for around 60% of our portfolio for older kids and drive strong engagement. With Book Tonies for example, we are seeing engagement rates up 25% compared to Classic Tonies. That confirms what we always believed, older kids want more depth, and we are delivering it.
We are growing our platform, our user base and our formats. And in doing so, we maximize the appeal of our global Tonies brand. One moment that clearly stood out to me happened over the holiday season, our own Tonies Christmas miracle you could say. More Tonieboxes than ever before were unwrapped under Christmas trees around the world. That we expected. But we didn't anticipate this tonies became the most downloaded app across all categories in the app stores, #1 in the U.S., DACH, U.K. and France, ahead of ChatGPT, Meta AI, Google Gemini, Amazon Alexa, Garmin, tech that was gifted to adults.
I couldn't help but smile thinking of our global icon ambition. So Toniebox 2 is clearly the #1 choice of kids and parents, and of industry experts, too. We set an industry standard with Toniebox 1 10 years ago, and we are doing it again with Toniebox 2. We are really proud that My First Tonies have already won the prestigious ToyAward in the Baby & Infant category at Nuremberg Toy Fair in January.
Given our focus on winning young kids for Tonies, that means a lot. Toniebox 2 won the Best EdTech Innovation Award at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas this year. And in Australia, we are not just the Overall Product of the Year but also, the Product of the Year for Infants and Pre-Schoolers.
So clearly, we are shaping the industry, be it in toys, be it in tech. Tonies leads the way these awards reflect the appeal of our product, our platform and our brand.
Let's move from awards to bar charts, maybe not as shiny, but equally exciting. Looking at our markets, I'd like to start with North America, our largest territory and growth engine. Let's be clear, we faced a challenging macro environment with tariffs and economic uncertainty. And despite this, we delivered 40% growth in constant currency while increasing profitability. How did we do this? We listened to our customers and embedded Tonies further and further in families' lives, with higher visibility and through strong execution within our organization. As everywhere else, Toniebox 2 created excitement like we never did before. We captured Times Square. We were featured in Walmart's Holiday TV Spots alongside household brands like Apple and Nespresso.
Throughout the year, we delivered day-to-day moments of joy with outstanding collaborations. Just to give you some examples, Ms. Rachel Tonie has seen incredible demand. And Snoop Dogg's Doggyland has been a great success that showcases the diversity of our content in North America.
Next up, market presence. Shoppers that look for Tonies, find them. And shoppers that don't know Tonies yet, see us. That's because you cannot miss us in stores of all major retailers as we continue to expand. The impact we have on kids and on family routines in the U.S. is noticeable across the broader toy industry. In 2025, no other preschool toy brand grew as strongly as the Toniebox. We accomplished this in a year in which every international company had to deal with tariffs.
One year after the so-called Liberation Day, I can say with confidence and with pride, our team managed it exceptionally well. We increased prices and saw no material impact on demand. That signals very clearly how much families in the U.S. value our products. And we diversified our supply chain ramping up capacities outside of China. The result is what you can see here on the left-hand side of this slide.
Distribution channels, whoever wants to be successful in our industry needs to play the omni-channel game, and we are mastering it. D2C, wholesale, marketplace, each channel contributes individually and feeds into another as a self-sustaining flywheel. Families discover us in store, buy online, return to retail and vice versa. Still, retail partnerships are particularly important in building market presence. They underscore our intent to be a staple in family's lives and drive brand recognition.
Building on the strong nationwide footprint, we continue to scale. In 2025, we increased permanent points of sale in North America by 12% from 6,500 to 7,300. One highlight, in particular, our long-standing partnership with Walmart where we moved from the consumer electronics section into the toy category. That has been a significant shift because it means every family browsing for toys now finds Tonies exactly where they are looking. That placement drives discovery and ultimately growth.
Now let's turn to our most established market, DACH. DACH is not only where our home is, it's where every second family household already owns a Toniebox. 80% of our target group know our brand, and it's our most profitable market. That's why we are particularly pleased that we accelerated growth here again, increasing our top line growth rate by nearly 5 percentage points year-over-year to 16%.
Toniebox 2 played a pivotal role creating unmatched buzz around the launch, but we delivered innovation beyond that with Book Tonies and our My First Tonies. Our success in DACH, our blueprint market, underscores Tonies' potential to grow fast, sustainably and highly profitably even in a more developed environment. We didn't only grow with the new signature device and innovation beyond the box. We are also constantly looking for new ways in distribution, growing our retail presence even further. We opened up a new channel with our TikTok Shop, and we successfully tested our first-ever Tonies vending machine. So more than 9 years after selling our first Toniebox in Germany, our customers in DACH are hungrier than ever to buy from us.
Let's also have a look at our Rest of the World region. Our international markets, France, U.K., Australia and New Zealand grew 68% in constant currency, a fantastic result considering we've established ourselves across these markets in a relatively short time. France delivered a very strong performance. No other brand gained as much market share as Tonies even in one of Europe's most competitive markets, our playbook works.
In the U.K., we gained market share as well and increased our installed base to over 1 million Tonieboxes.
And in Australia and New Zealand, 2025 was our first full year of operations, and we are already serving more than 500 points of sale. One of them was something truly special, something we have never done before. Right in the heart of Sydney, we opened the world's first tonies store, a completely new way of bringing tonies to where families are. We gave children memorable experiences, not just through the Toniebox, but by meeting the heroes like Emma Memma, for example. We make the Tonies brand visible, tangible and experiential beyond any shelf placement. In addition, we added 3 major retailers in 2025 in Australia, Target Officeworks and JB Hi-Fi.
Brand connection and distribution built at once, that is how we grow in new markets. It's been very important to me and many others here in the company, beyond our products, we lives our values as a company. Tonies is a force for good, across the world, together with our community. We show up in people's lives far beyond the point of sale, art, charity, celebrations. This is what defines us. At Kunstpalast Museum in Dusseldorf, we enabled children to experience art in a whole new way. In London, our tonies cab delivered presents to hospitals during the holiday season. In Toronto, we participated in the Santa Claus parade. And our Toniepalooza events continue to attract more than 40,000 visitors a year.
Our mission makes us who we are, and it truly sets us apart. The same goes for our business collaborations. Through our partners, we continuously reach new audiences, surprise fans and deliver on their wishes. The most recent example is our Cuddle Tonies, launched in partnership with Disney. Our work with Disney goes far beyond a traditional licensing relationship. It's actually a true creative partnership. With Cuddle Tonies, we collaborated closely from the very beginning, shaping a more intimate listening experience. The characters speak directly to the child, a calming story-led moment designed for comfort and connection. Disney produced the in-character performances to ensure absolute authenticity. Together, we curated stories, guided the audio experience and layered music and sound design. That way, we bring each world to life in a way that feels uniquely suited to Tonies.
The result, continued innovation for us and a new category for Disney, an audio-first plush built around narrative and immersion. This reflects the trust an iconic brand like Disney places in our expertise. We are helping Disney and so many other fantastic brands bring families the best possible experience through audio-first storytelling.
And we've got many more partnerships like this. This year, Pokemon will join our lineup. The top global toy property for 4 consecutive years, loved by multiple generations, kids and adults alike. This is a landmark partnership for tonies. Tonies will be the first partner to bring audio storytelling to the Pokemon universe, creating a completely new way to engage with Pikachu and his friends. This partnership demonstrates the power of our platform. The biggest brands want to reach new audiences in our community. We tap into their fan bases and together, we deliver genuinely new experiences for everyone. That reinforces our market position. And just as important, it shows the pull of tonies globally.
So before we break down our numbers in more detail, let me recap the strategic progress we made last year. The final quarter of 2025 captured what tonies is all about. Q4 has always been essential for our success, a moment of truth, the peak of our commercial calendar and once again, we delivered -- we increased revenues by 39% in constant currency, surpassing the EUR 300 million mark. We sold 1.4 million Tonieboxes and more than 21 million Tonies in 1 quarter alone. We know how to scale when it matters. We know how to execute in retail with existing and with new partners.
Our integrated supply chain is highly resilient, capable of handling exceptional peak season demand. We create unparalleled buzz with great IPs and strong retailer partner integrations. And we onboard new Tonies families fast and smoothly, thanks to our brand-new app, and also a customer happiness team that loves our brand as much as our fans do.
It's a great privilege to excite our customers and to deliver a product that spreads joy and happiness, even in peak times. I am proud that in 2025, we proved it again.
And with this, I now hand over to Hansjorg, who will take you through our financial results.
Thank you, Tobias. Thank you very much. Now before I get into the numbers, of course, I wouldn't want to miss this milestone. Since December, you all know, tonies is listed on the SDAX and of course, I totally share the excitement of this little listener here. So a very proud of this achievement. Very pleased that our performance as one of the fastest growing German companies is reflected in our share price performance and in our capital markets standing. And let me tell you, we are ready to continue this journey and we're bringing receipts for our confidence.
Let's look at the results. The headline is straightforward. In 2025, we delivered. We aimed for group revenue growth above 25% at constant currency, and we delivered 36%. We aimed for North America revenue growth above 30% at constant currency and delivered 40%. Then, we aimed for an adjusted EBITDA margin between 6.5% and 8.5%, and we delivered 8.6%. So we grew or sustainably and profitably, and we did so despite a generally challenging macro environment. I don't need to explain to you the extraordinary situation around tariffs we faced earlier in the year. Being able to pull this off is remarkable for us.
Our top line growth was fueled by all markets and our international expansion in particular. Our revenue share from markets outside of DACH has now climbed to 66% as expected as we aspire to become a global icon.
Our Toniebox performance was strong and accelerated year-on-year as it should when you launch a new signature device. We're moving according to plan, locking in future figurine and games revenue through Toniebox sales.
We improved our adjusted EBITDA margin to a higher contribution margin mainly, and we achieved this despite macro headwinds, including tariffs. Our regional EBITDA margins improved everywhere. North America stood out, giving almost 7 percentage points year-on-year. DACH continued to improve from an already high base. And the rest of the world is already clearly in the green.
Then free cash flow. We did make the strategic choice to build up higher than usual inventory levels ahead of the launch of Toniebox 2 and other new content categories to maximize their commercial impact. And while that had an effect on our free cash flow, it was an investment that paid off, especially as we look at the cash available balance, including unused credit lines, EUR 138 million to further fund innovation and expansion ourselves.
Now let's dive deeper and start with the P&L. Our focus is and remains on profitable growth, and we have achieved exactly that, as you can see here. I want to highlight a few figures. First, our contribution margin. It was already strong last year at 34.5%. This year, we continued our cost savings programs that together with a continued and expected product mix shift, improved contribution margin by 2.5 percentage points to 37%.
This, in turn, was the primary driver to expand our adjusted EBITDA margin, which improved by 1.1 percentage points so that we surpassed the upper end of our guidance. Now let's take a closer look at our full year top line by diving deeper into our markets. You already heard from Tobias that each of them contributed double-digit growth.
Overall, group revenue came in at EUR 630 million, EUR 276 million, of which from North America, EUR 214 million from DACH, and EUR 141 million from the Rest of the World. Each market has its own story and pace, but overall, they are following similar dynamics at different scales.
Another figure we're keeping close track of is our international revenue share. It continues to grow, and we are very pleased with that. International revenue now accounts for 2/3 of our total as our regions outside DACH are growing even faster than our home market.
Let's take a look at our category split next. Toniebox 2 was not only our flashy headliner launched last year, but also a shining star when it comes to performance. Overall, Toniebox revenue grew by 21% in constant currency. That matters because every Toniebox sold is a leading indicator of future tonies revenue. A growing installed base means growing subscription-like figurine revenue, and that structurally drives margin. This year's results also show the dynamic and the expected revenue mix shift toward Tonies figurines and games. With 43% growth, revenue in that category grew faster than others, fueling our margin expansion as planned.
Last but not least, the positive development of our Accessories & Digital business contributes to our overall growth with a category increase of 25%.
Now moving from full year to Q4. Tobias already discussed the drivers behind our strong year-end performance. I want to focus now on the numbers. Group revenue in Q4 was EUR 313 million, roughly half of our annual revenue as is typical for us. Also in Q4, we saw double-digit growth in every market and every category. We registered above full year growth rates at group level in DACH and in North America, a testament to our ability to accelerate our momentum when it matters.
On the right-hand side of this chart, you can see the category split. Here, I'd like to provide some context on the Toniebox growth rate. In Q4, we recorded 18% growth year-over-year, slightly below the full year figure of 21%, which is simply because Q3 already captured significant launch effects from Toniebox 2.
On to segment reporting. Last year, we achieved profitability in all regions for the first time. This year, all markets improved even further. So we're progressing according to plan. Looking at our EBITDA margin, DACH continues to be our main profitability driver. The 24.6% EBITDA margin is a further improvement from an already high base, supported by operating efficiencies. DACH remains our profitability blueprint that we translate to other markets.
We are seeing the success of implementing that playbook when we look at North America. A margin improvement of almost 7 percentage points year-over-year, we're nearing double digits. It's an outstanding development, driven by a favorable product channel mix as well.
And Rest of the World is a success story of its own. Despite still being in a very high-growth phase, despite having just completed the first full year in Australia and New Zealand, we're already expanding our Rest of World margins.
Finally, on group level, we improved EBITDA margin from 7% to 7.7%. Our journey of sustainable, profitable growth continues.
Now I want to take a closer look at the development of our adjusted EBITDA margin. Overall, the increase here was supported by a higher contribution margin, which is comprising COGS, licensing and fulfillment. As mentioned earlier, notable benefits were improvement in COGS, cost of goods sold, driven by product mix shifts towards figurines but also our continuous cost savings efforts, which more than offset the negative impact of U.S. tariffs.
With regards to licensing, increasing the share of Tonies Originals sold, supported licensing costs favorably while the ongoing U.S. wholesale expansion improved further our fulfillment costs. These 3 positive drivers more than made up for the negative 1.4 percentage point other category. That was related to beneficial one-off effects in 2024, which we then didn't have in 2025, mainly driven by foreign exchange and an adverse one-off effect in 2025.
As a result, we increased our adjusted EBITDA margin by 1.1 percentage points to 8.6%. One of my favorite slides. As we said before, our business is resilient. Our organization is resilient. 2025 proved it. And we are on track to show it again this year.
Markets will remain volatile, and our proven toolbox to manage this uncertainty is not part of our reality. Tariffs didn't go away, but we managed them well. We now have a stable response set up. We have sourcing flexibility across production, and we have effective commercial levers. We made targeted price adjustments successfully, means our toolbox of measures proved effective throughout the year. We also have a toolbox to address production challenges. Device components, namely memory chips, have increased in cost for us as well as for other players in the tech sector.
So in addition to the just mentioned commercial mitigation measures, here, we're also equipped with expertise and access to alternative more cost-effective memory technologies. So the Toniebox inventory that we equipped us with and the memory chip inventories that we secured already give us flexibility to shift production towards these more economical alternatives, if necessary.
Consumer sentiment is and remains key for our demand. But we have a great advantage over classic entertainment properties because we offer a value proposition that families tend to not compromise on, as time has shown. We offer great experiences for their children. That gives us strong stickiness even in a challenging consumer environment. Our platform drives loyalty, and key IP launches continue to drive acquisition and engagement.
And lastly, we're prepared to mitigate currency effects. Our business model is, to a significant extent, naturally hedged on the bottom line, and flexible financing for working capital puts us in a solid position.
2025 has shown how resilient tonies is. We're capable of executing our strategy even in times of volatility. I see us well prepared for 2026 and another successful year of profitable growth.
And with that, let's take a look at our guidance. Back to you, Tobias.
Thanks, Hansjorg. 2025, as you have heard, was a great year, and we are convinced 2026 will be, too. Our ambition to grow tonies sustainably and profitably is reflected in our guidance. For the full year, we expect group revenue growth of more than 20% in constant currency to above EUR 760 million. North America revenue growth of more than 30% in constant currency, and an adjusted EBITDA margin between 9% and 11%. As always, this guidance assumes no material deterioration of consumer sentiment or force majeure events. We continue to scale tonies globally, profitably, sustainably from a position of strength. So we are excited for another great year.
And with this, I'd now like to open the floor for your questions. Moritz, please take over.
Thank you, Tobias. [Operator Instructions] I see the first questions are already in. Why did free cash flow decrease from 2024 and become negative?
Thank you. That's a perfect question for the CFO. Handing it over to you, Hansjorg.
Thanks, Tobias and Moritz. Yes, happy to take that one. I think let's start with the fact that 2024 was a milestone year operationally, also financially, and we achieved our targets probably earlier than expected.
For 2025, what's really different is that we intentionally built up strategic inventory to fully support the launch of TB2, but also 3 new content categories, right? We established 3 new categories, which is Tonieplay, My First Tonies and Plush Tonies. This kind of investment didn't happen in 2024, nor is this ongoing recurring investment that we'd expect in 2026 in a comparable fashion. So it's not entirely comparable year-on-year, and considering that forward-looking, although we're not guiding on free cash flow, we expect this to improve coming out of this onetime inventory buildup to secure commercial success for Toniebox 2 in the new categories.
Thank you. The next question is on the guidance. You guided for 25% growth in 2025 and delivered more than 30%, congrats, but why do you expect decelerating sales growth for 2026?
Thanks for the congrats. I'm happy to take this one. So let me actually make this really clear. 2025 was a great year for tonies. And we really believe 2026 will be as well. I may want to -- I think I read the question in a sense that I probably should put our guidance into perspective here.
In 2025, we added around EUR 150 million in revenue. So for 2026, our 20% constant currency growth implies at least another EUR 130 million, so -- while we do this, while improving our overall profitability. So in percentage terms, that's naturally less than 2025, given the significantly higher baseline. But in absolute terms, this is a very continued strong, very strong momentum.
And let's also be clear, we are delivering this despite geopolitical headwinds that do dampen customer -- consumer sentiments across the board. And I want to be explicitly saying that we have never experienced consumer sentiment issues and are confident also for 2026 because we have such a strong, high-quality product.
So outside of DACH, we expect the growth rate of more than 30%, and they will be supported by new franchises, as I explained, by exciting new product innovations. DACH will continue to grow. We've seen exceptional growth, and we clearly expect it to continue, probably not necessarily always double-digit growth rates here.
But again, we are very confident that this will be another great year for tonies. And I think this is very, very strongly reflected in the guidance that I have presented.
Okay. Next one is on sourcing and memory chips. How is the shortage and price increases in memory chips affecting your earnings forecast? What additional costs were incurred in securing the necessary memory chip capacity?
Hansjorg, since you actually talked about memory chips already, you may want to take that one.
Sure, will do. Yes, great question. And I think I'll start with -- according to our estimate, any remaining volatility that the memory chip market should give us, we think we've already covered in our guidance or captured in our guidance. So we don't expect this to break out from there.
Of course, we have significant mitigating actions that we've undertaken the last months. I've already mentioned earlier, we have access to and experience with various technologies, changing between memory chip components to more economical ones where necessary. We also equipped ourselves with inventory. Like we've pointed out earlier, we have a significant inventory balance at the end of 2025. This plays into a strategic advantage now because it actually gives us the ability to potentially change production to lower cost memory components. Plus, we have, of course, the inventories that we secured already on those memory components.
Hence, all of these are reasons together with the commercial levers that we have, just like we did for tariffs, that gives us confidence that we've covered any potential fluctuations, uncertainties already in our guidance.
Okay. Next one is on geographic expansion. If you're saying Australia and New Zealand had an exceptional positive start, are there any plans to use Australia and New Zealand as a blueprint for further geographical expansion?
Thank you for that question. I actually love to talk about this topic in Australia specifically. And yes, I agree, 100%, Australia and New Zealand has been an exceptional success. We have a great team in Australia. We had, from the very beginning, a very strong comprehensive retail penetration. And this is clearly also a very powerful proof of concept of what I call usually or describe usually as global pool, right? We have, as I said before and said in many previous calls, the Toniebox is active in over 100 countries. That's what I mean with significant global pool.
Moving into a market like Australia just shows how we capitalize on that global goal as we enter and scale in those markets that we see being already penetrated in some way, shape or form with Toniebox. And yes, I mean, Australia, it's been our fifth major market launch. And every time, we have, we find and improve the playbook. We are tailoring our go-to-market strategy to each -- so each of those market entries is more efficient or better than the last, and we continue to do so. And we will continue to leverage this global momentum or global pull also in the coming years.
However, I hope you understand that I'm at this very moment, not ready to share specific time lines or country sequences for the next phase of our road map. But very clearly, you can see with Australia and all the other countries, we know what we do here. We're getting better, and we have those -- all those remaining countries that we can still enter and that creates a lot of excitement on our end as well.
Okay. The next question is a double question on Tonieplay. Can you give a first indication on how Tonieplay sales per Toniebox 2 are trending?
And the second part of the question is, could you share first indications how Tonieplay impacts customer behavior and stickiness. Weekly playtime has increased by 10 minutes year-over-year. Was it driven by Tonieplay? Are there any cannibalization effects on other product groups?
There's a lot of specific questions. So let me dissect this. What I can tell you, Tonieplay had a really strong start, as I've shown you in the presentation in its respective target age group. And the user feedback that we are getting is extremely positive. For example, you can see this going through the website we use on tonies.com.
As I said, approximately half of households that have a 6-plus year old and that upgraded to a Toniebox 2 have adopted Tonieplay already. That's a significant number. And it shows that the Toniebox, the new Toniebox can add new dimensions at a later stage childhood. That's exactly what we wanted to prove and it's working. However, I mean, obviously, I understand where you're going with the question, but we needed to also be patient. We will definitely need at least a good 12-month full cohort life cycle to actually draw deep conclusions. But I can tell you, from all I can see and all we are seeing here as a team, we're off to an exciting start.
And with regards to playtime and the second question, if I remember it correctly, again, we're only 6 months in the market. And it's relatively early to draw those conclusions. We see a very positive momentum, and we see clearly customer adoption, we see stickiness. At this point, we are not commenting on any specific metrics, but I can tell you that we see a significant share of our users already showing strong adoption and retention of Tonieplay over multiple weeks.
And let's also be clear, there's strong IP coming up. We talked about the Hasbro games. Those are extremely exciting games. We -- the one we can talk about in public is the MONOPOLY Game, and I've played it myself, and I can tell you playing MONOPOLY with Toniebox is an awesome experience. I can't wait for all of you to try this out.
So there is so much to come, and there's so much to explore, I wouldn't even think of talking about cannibalization and these type of things. This is all growth layering on top of growth.
Okay. The next question is on inventory. Can you shed some more light on your relatively high inventory levels in terms of composition, product categories, etc?
Hansjorg, do you want to take that?
Sure. In fact, it's similar what I stated earlier. Our strategic inventory buildup was mainly driven by supporting the TB2 launch, but also, we established 3 new categories, right, Tonieplay, Plush, and My First Tonies. And this -- investment and launch of this magnitude hasn't happened in the year before, nor happening in the year after. So that's why this year stands out.
I would also add our fiscal year ends in the same week as our most busy peak period of the year. So by definition, whatever we do in that last month has quite an impact on financial KPIs. But operationally, we get a lot of credit for what we did here because it secured us that commercial moment. And we have the benefits throughout a longer time period now throughout 2026.
Okay. The next question is on interest and taxes. Interest income was EUR 8 million in the first half of the year and EUR 0.3 million in financial year 2025. Could you explain this? And what we should expect in financial year 2026? You paid cash taxes in 2025. How much tax loss carryforwards do you have left? And what tax rate should we expect for '26, '27?
Hansjorg, you're in such a great flow, I'll let you continue.
Yes. I think there's 2 questions here. Let me try to answer this without getting too technical. So the first one on interest. Yes, there was -- we were tracking positively for the first half of the year and then negatively for the second half of the year. The main driver, actually the sole driver of this is the valuation of our warrant shares, which basically led to this benefit at lower share price in the first half of the year. And then, our share price strongly climbed during the second half of the year, leading to an inverse position.
The good news here is that our warrant shares actually either settle or expire throughout this year. So at the end of this year, we will have quite a simplified capital structure and this volatility nor financial impacts will no longer have to be reconciled. So simplification to be expected here.
Tax, yes. This is another point where 2025 -- 2024 and 2025 are a bit difficult to compare like-for-like because 2024 was in relative terms, a lot more driven by tax loss carryforwards than 2025 is, and we don't guide on effective tax rates. But I think the 2025 environment is probably more representative of what's happening going forward.
Okay. In the interest of time, let's take 2 more questions. The first one, let's call it, on sales channels. Where is your Tonies vending machine located? Could you imagine rolling it out further?
Yes. I love the question. Thank you for that one. It's a real highlight. This is why I'm smiling, and something that we have discussed for a while here as a team and worked on. And it's a typical example of great tonies inventions and engineering capacity.
So the first real life vending machine, Tonies vending machine is located in Aachen here in Germany in our home DACH market, not far from Dusseldorf. So it's, as I said, a really good example of us constantly exploring channel innovations. I also talked about our own store in Australia and New Zealand. We talked about TikTok Shops and all of the things and now the vending machine.
While I cannot share any specifics here on rolling out those vending machines globally, I can tell you, and you can hopefully see, I am and we are excited about this. And this one vending machine is already really working well. So there is no reason to assume that this will be the last.
Okay. Thank you. The last one on licensing costs. Licensing costs in North America seem to be structurally lower than in the DACH region. Hence, once the mix in North America shifts towards figurines, could contribution margins in North America exceed the current DACH levels of 38%.
Hansjorg, do you want to take that?
Thank you. I think, again, quite a few questions lumped into one. Let me try to dissect. The main driver of our licensing ratio, the percent of licensing cost of revenue is, in fact, time from launch because the further away we progress from launch, the more our mix will evolve towards figurines. That means, the more figurines, the more licensing cost.
So expect right, as we grow also in the U.S., we are not as far progressed from launch as in DACH, for example. So that mixed development will further continue. A second point, I would mention here. And by the way, this mix evolution is also our main profit driver, whilst there may be an impact on licensing, the main driver of our ever-growing profitability is the further away from launch we are, the further our mix shifts to more profitable tonies versus the box, right? This is all as planned per our standard, call it, business model.
The second component that I would mention here is the fact that licensing ratios always breathe a bit from year to year because it's primarily driven by what we launch in that year, right? And sometimes you satisfy a certain listening need better with a licensed product and sometimes you satisfy better with an own production. We don't do this necessarily to drive an improved licensing ratio. We do this to best satisfy the listening desires of our listening -- of little listeners, and the licensing ratio is an outcome. And yes, of course, structurally or high level, we want to be -- we want to have a healthy combination of licensed and owned.
Okay. This concludes our Q&A session. In case of open questions, we will follow up during the next couple of days. Before Tobias finishes with the key takeaways, let me quickly highlight the next events to come until our Q1 results on May 13. Hansjorg and myself will be at Metzler Small Cap Days in Frankfurt on Thursday, followed by IR-only events in Munich and Madrid. Following Q1, the 3 of us will be at the Berenberg European Conference in New York and organize the roadshow with Kepler in Paris later in May.
The next big milestone on the events side will be our first Capital Markets Day since IPO on June 18 in London. We have a great agenda in mind with full Management Board attendance in person on that day.
So Tobias, please take over again for the key takeaways and final remarks.
Thank you, Moritz. Thank you all for the great questions. I really enjoyed it. It was an engaging discussion, I think.
Let me close today's presentation with a short summary as always. We delivered in 2025, and we are ready for a strong 2026. Key takeaways. First, 2025 was a very strong year across all markets. Despite macroeconomic challenges, we grew in every market by double digits. We expanded our margin, we achieved our goals and we delivered our biggest ever product launch.
Second, Toniebox 2 has taken over a smashing success with customers and partners alike. We have not only launched a new flagship product, we have created strategic levers for future growth.
Third, we will continue our profitable growth journey in 2026. We aim for double-digit growth across all markets, again with expanding our profitability.
Fourth, Moritz just mentioned, at our Capital Market Day in June, we will share more details on our midterm road map. We have big ambitions, and we are excited to share how we will continue to grow into a global icon.
And finally, tonies is well positioned for 2026 and beyond. We have a clear plan. We have a strong pipeline. I'm really excited to tell you much more in the coming months. So now, thank you all for joining today's call, for your continued interest, and for your trust in tonies. Take care. Goodbye.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
tonies — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz (FY): EUR 630 Mio. (+36% gegenüber Vorjahr, konstanten Währungen)
- Q4-Umsatz: EUR 313 Mio. (Q4 typischerweise ~50% des Jahres; +39% cc)
- Adjusted EBITDA-Marge: 8,6% (oberes Ende/Guidance übertroffen: Ziel 6,5–8,5%)
- Contribution Margin: 37,0% (+2,5 Prozentpunkte)
- Installierte Basis: ~11,8 Mio. Tonieboxen; 156 Mio. Tonies cumulativ (43 Mio. in 2025)
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Produkt-Flywheel: Toniebox 2 treibt Absatz und damit wiederkehrende Revenues (Figuren, Spiele); TB2 machte ~80% der Q4-Verkäufe aus.
- Neue Kategorien: Einführung Tonieplay, My First Tonies und Plush erweitert Zielgruppen (1–3 J. und 6+ J.) und Monetarisierung.
- Internationalisierung: Skaliertes Retail‑Netzwerk (Walmart, Times Square, neue Märkte AUS/NZ) plus Supply‑Chain‑Diversifikation gegen Tariff‑Risiken.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Umsatzprognose 2026: >20% Wachstum cc, Ziel >EUR 760 Mio.
- Region NA: >30% Wachstum cc erwartet.
- Profitabilität: adjusted EBITDA-Marge 9–11%; Guidance unter Vorbehalt bei deutlicher Verschlechterung der Konsumnachfrage oder Force‑Majeure.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Free Cash Flow: Negativ durch gezielten Aufbau strategischer Bestände für TB2 und neue Kategorien; Management nennt Einmaleffekt, erwartet Besserung 2026.
- Halbleiter & Sourcing: Memory‑Preisrisiken sollen durch Vorräte, alternative Speichertechnologien und Produktionsflexibilität abgedeckt sein; Kosten bereits in Guidance berücksichtigt.
- Tonieplay & Mix: Starke frühe Adoption (~50% bei 6+ J. Upgrades); Management sieht keine erkennbare Kannibalisierung, fordert aber 12 Monate Datenzyklus für definitive Aussagen. Lizenzmix erklärt Margenprofil regional.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Starke operative Execution: deutliches Umsatz- und Margenwachstum, TB2 als strategischer Hebel und mehrere kurzfristige Katalysatoren (Disney, Pokemon, neue Kategorien). Kurzfristig belastet Inventar die FCF‑Kennzahlen; mittelfristig sollte die Flywheel‑Logik zu weiterem margenstarken Wachstum führen.
tonies — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
I'm happy to lead you through today's call in which we will be presenting our financial results for the third quarter and the first 9 months of '25. After the presentation, we invite you to submit your questions via the Zoom Q&A function. Joining me on the call today are our CEO, Tobias Wann; and for the first time, our new CFO, Hansjorg Muller. As usual, Tobias will begin with an update on strategic highlights and relevant business developments. Afterwards, Hansjorg will guide you through the financial results in more detail. And of course, we'll also provide an outlook and look forward to answering your questions at the end.
And with that, over to our CEO, Tobias, who will give you an update on the world of tonies.
Thank you, Peter, and a warm welcome also from my side. Thank you for joining our earnings call. Today, we are looking back on a quarter that was eventful and even historical for tonies because we opened a new chapter by launching Toniebox 2, our biggest innovation since introducing Toniebox 1 back in 2016. We've done so very successfully and by staying true to our mission. Across the world, we have strengthened our position as the largest audio platform for kids. With Toniebox 2, we are not only redefining how children grow through listening, touch and play, we're also unlocking additional growth potential for tonies with new audiences and use cases.
We also reached another milestone in the third quarter documented on this slide. We sold our 10 million Toniebox. Fittingly, it was a Toniebox 2. Overall, Tonieboxes have been activated in more than 100 countries with over 134 million Tony sold. In the third quarter, we not only expanded our reach with 282 minutes, our average weekly play time also remained on a high level. This is an important KPI. It shows the positive impact our screen-free product has on families and it's highly relevant for our business as it underscores a deepened engagement with our platform.
Let's now take a look at our Q3 in financial numbers. We had an exceptionally strong third quarter, and we are very satisfied with our performance in the first 9 months as well. Q3 was not only historical, but also highly successful. We increased revenues by more than 52%, growing our year-to-date performance by 33% or EUR 322 million on a group level. And I'm pleased that all markets contributed to this increase.
In DACH, we recorded double-digit growth. After 9 months, revenue was up 16%. North America continued its strong momentum with 36% growth year-to-date. And in Rest of World, revenue surged 80% compared to the first 9 months in 2024. As I said, the launch of Toniebox 2 was a key driver behind this strong performance, also accelerating our annual performance. Our sequential growth from Q2 to Q3 was obviously supported by phase-in effects as the first Tonieboxes 2 hit the shelves in September. But our new core device has also hit the Spirits of the Times, generating significant momentum across markets.
We have seen impact both from upgraders, so that's households already owning a Toniebox as well as first-time buyers of a Toniebox 2. So we are on a good trajectory to continue our long-term platform growth. And we are not only on track to reach our long-term, but also our midterm goals. With Toniebox 2 off to a good start and a strong Q3 business performance, we are pleased to confirm our full year guidance for financial year 2025. More on that later, but let me already state that this underscores our resilience in a challenging macro environment.
In the next few minutes, I'll dive a little bit deeper into our business update for Q3. Our strong performance is the direct outcome of several major steps forward that we took over the past few months. Today, we look at some highlights. After a deep dive into the launch and early performance of Toniebox 2, we'll cover relevant developments in our major markets and exciting new partnership. And naturally, Hansjorg will introduce himself. And what I want to reiterate, not only have we worked to drive immediate results over the past month, we've also focused on preparing the road ahead. Therefore, we are well positioned to deliver another strong Q4. We'll be taking a look at that as well. But now let's dive in.
Toniebox 2 is the champion, leading the next chapter of our platform and growth strategy. Most of you are very familiar with Toniebox 1. For over 9 years, it set the benchmark for creative screen-free play, earning the trust of families in over 100 countries. That has made us the global #1. And Toniebox 1 never became out of fashion. It was a huge success among different cohorts selling as well as or in most cases, even better than in the year before for nearly a decade.
Toniebox 2 is built on this unique success story. It has everything that made Toniebox 1 highly popular. But with Toniebox 2, we are adding new use cases, enhanced features and even more immersive interactive experiences. At the same time, Toniebox 2 unlocks entirely new possibilities to shape and expand our business with new verticals in a broader age group. In a nutshell, we carry forward our legacy while setting the stage for a future with more imagination and more growth.
Toniebox 2 is both continuing and enriching the experience millions of kids and families have fallen. At its heart, it's a screen-free audio-first experience. But with Toniebox 2, it's becoming even more engaging. tonies has always said right at the intersection of tech, toys and content. All of that still holds true, but now we are adding something new to the mix, gaming. Alongside Toniebox 2, we've introduced Tonieplay, a whole new expanding product category that brings interactive games and quizzes to our platform. This hands-on experience perfectly complements our successful audio offering. The combination of Toniebox 2 and Tonieplay will be a key driver of our growth going forward. Let me explain why.
We are expanding our platform, driving growth across a much broader target group with entirely new growth vectors. We are reaching families earlier, engaging children for longer and creating more opportunities for cross-selling and ecosystem participation. This broader appeal increases our total addressable market and strengthens our long-term growth trajectory. Specifically, Toniebox 2 unlocks 3 key growth vectors. Growth vector #1 are younger children.
For the first time, Toniebox 2 is certified for use by children 1 and up. We've developed new age-appropriate content like My First Tonies, allowing us to welcome families into the tonies ecosystem earlier and build more loyalty from the very start. Growth vector 2 is our core target. The 3 to 6 age group remains central. And with Toniebox 2, they benefit from enhanced features while the familiar tactile play experience is preserved.
In established markets, this also creates a strong upgrade incentive for existing Toniebox families. Growth vector 3 are older kids. We are now offering formats and interactive games designed for children up to age 9 or even older. By activating these 3 growth vectors, Toniebox 2 enables us to attract users at an earlier age, engage with them more deeply and retain them for longer. This expands our installed base, increases customer lifetime value and opens new opportunities for licensing partnerships and recurring revenue. In summary, Toniebox 2 is a catalyst for the sustainable growth.
While it's still early, we are already seeing some very encouraging signals from our global community that our strategy is resonating. Those who already love the Toniebox are embracing the next generation. Early data shows that around 40% of Toniebox 2 buyers at launch are upgraders from our current platform that is owners of Toniebox 1. As we approach the holiday season, we expect this share to shift with Toniebox 2 increasingly becoming the entry point for new families replacing Toniebox 1.
It's also clear that parents recognize that Toniebox 2 is a great toy even for the very youngest children. If we only look at Toniebox 2 activators that did not own a Toniebox before, nearly 1 in 3 have 1-year-old kids at home. At the same time, we are seeing that Toniebox 2 is appealing to older children as well, thanks to Tonieplay.
Let's look at the DACH market where our new device has been available since September, which provides us with a more solid database. There are 55% of all households with kids 5 years or older that activated the Toniebox 2 have played at least one of our new games. Yes, these are early indicators, but these figures show that the design of the platform is working as intended also because we made a concerted effort to showcase our innovation.
To celebrate the launch of Toniebox 2, we hosted events in Berlin, London, New York, Paris and Sydney. Our aim was to connect directly with our communities, inspiring those who already love or who are just now discovering Tonies. Having witnessed the event in Berlin firsthand, I can tell you seeing the excitement of kids and parents interacting with Toniebox 2 is one of the best parts of my job. But that was not all because both in New York and Paris, Tonies was on full display on oversized billboards even after our launch events had ended.
These billboards were part of our first truly global multimedia campaign to strengthen our global brand equity. Brand and mission visibility are essential to bring our story to more and more hearts and minds in households around. In addition to our own channel, we also saw global buzz across major news outlets, confirming we introduced the right product at the right time. In total, media coverage on the launch of Toniebox 2 generated over 1 billion impressions worldwide.
We are building on this momentum and continue to see new levels of excitement and attention across the global media landscape and also in the broader tech community because less than 2 months after launch, Toniebox 2 already won an award. It's a great honor for us that our new core device was named as CES 2026 Best of Innovation Award winner by the Consumer Technology Association.
Global buzz in the media and from peers is important to reach even more families. However, what matters most is that the product truly resonates with those who we created it. The feedback from our community is what drives me and the team every day. The numbers speak for themselves. We are seeing a strong 4.6 average rating, nearly 9 in 10 users would recommend Toniebox 2 to a friend. And the volume of online conversations about Tonies has surged dramatically. But it's not only the sheer number, the sentiment is also overwhelmingly favorable.
Parents tell us their children are absolutely loving the TB2 experience from its foundational promise of screen-free time to particular new features such as Tonieplay or the sleep timer. In true Tonies fashion, we even listened to our community and in turn, we've delivered to quote one of our customers, a really well-designed product.
For us, this is fascinating feedback, but first and foremost, a source for inspiration to do even better. The launch was about making a strong first impression. And we've done exactly that by ensuring that families everywhere know about Toniebox 2 by creating excitement and by earning our customers' trust. Now the holiday season is about activating our platform at scale and turning that strong first impression into growth. We are entering the holidays with strong foundations, high demand and a platform that's already -- that's ready to perform.
And this is particularly true for North America, where our Toniebox has been available for not even 6 weeks now. North America is a key engine for our growth, and we are fully prepared to keep the momentum going. We've secured exceptional visibility. In over 1,500 American Target stores, we are prominently placed with 12 feet of shelf space. Quite literally, no shopper can miss us. Tonies will be front and center this year for families as they browse for gifts. The same is true at Walmart, where over the past year, we've moved from the electronic section to the toy section.
Our presence at our retail partners even goes beyond the shelves. We are honored to be featured in Walmart's holiday season video and TV spot alongside household brands like Apple and Nespresso. And here, maybe we can roll the video real quick, Peter?
[Presentation]
Thanks, Peter. Let's be very clear, this is no paid partnership. Walmart chose us putting our brand in the spotlight during the most important time of the year. With these and more initiatives in place, we are set to drive continued awareness, engagement and sales in North America as we close out the year. Another key to our portfolio's success are local heroes. That's also true for the U.S. A prime example for our ability to secure the hottest licensing content is the Ms. Rachel Tonie. Here's an example. With its launch, our approach and instincts were clearly validated again. Ms. Rachel is a true social media superstar in the U.S. with over 13 billion views and more than 17 million subscribers on YouTube.
The response to launching a Tonies with her has been overwhelming. Restock sold out within just 1 single day and almost 130,000 customers signed up for back-in-stock e-mail notifications. The Ms. Rachel Tonie has enabled us to expand into new customer segments, especially households with kids between 1 and 3 years old. This clearly demonstrates how much of an impact securing the most relevant and authentic licenses has for the North American market.
And we're moving on to DACH, which is not only our home, but also our continued growth market for Tonies. This year, we are up 16% revenue year-to-date, which shows just how much trust and excitement there is for Tonies in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. Our brand is as hot as ever. 82% aided brand awareness is a fantastic achievement. In addition, we are seeing encouraging feedback from retailers who are eager to promote the Toniebox 2 and their point of sale prominently as shown by the photo in the bottom right.
And one recent example for this are our Christmas Tonies. The hype was real before Santa could even think about settling up his rain deer. Our Christmas Tonies have been flying off the shelves with sales doubling compared to last year. And our advent calendar sold out again in just a few hours. And we are not standing still on the channel side either, whether people prefer buying Tonies on the street or on social media, we are there.
Turning to a strategic lever that is relevant not only in DACH but globally, partnerships. With Toniebox 2, we set up our platform to be more open than ever to partnerships also now in gaming. One area where we see special potential is bringing globally recognized brands and characters into the world of Tonies. For our partners, this is attractive because in turn, we are introducing the Tonies community to these brands, creating a win-win-win situation for families, for our partners and for us.
In the past few weeks, we've taken a major leap forward into our partnership strategy, expanding our collaboration with Hasbro to Tonieplay. In the second quarter of 2026, we'll introduce 3 iconic Hasbro board games, including Monopoly in brand and new audio-first Tonieplay formats that only our platform can deliver. It's a perfect match, 2 trusted brands coming together to unlock new worlds of discovery, connection and joy for families everywhere.
With that, I'll now hand over to Hansjorg, who will take you through our financials. Hansjorg, I'm very happy to have you on the earnings call for the very first time today, take it away.
Thank you, Tobias. Excited to be here. Let me take a moment and briefly introduce myself to the ones who haven't had the chance to connect with me yet. I joined tonies as CFO on September 1. Prior to that and for more than 25 years, I held leadership roles in finance, strategy and operations across various global markets. Most recently, I was CFO of Netflix's APAC business. My positions before included roles at Electronic Arts and Procter & Gamble. In other words, I think I both know entertainment and digital platforms and business models as well as what it takes to bring a physical product to the shelf and the homes of consumers and customers while driving profitable growth.
tonies is a special company with fantastic global growth potential. My first 2 months have been super inspiring. I've already had the opportunity to meet many of you and engage in valuable dialogue about the company's strategy and outlook. The openness that I've encountered in our discussions so far have really impressed me. So I'm super excited about what lies ahead and look forward to working closely with you as we continue to deliver our growth ambitions. Please do know, my door is always open for direct conversations and closing exchange. So please don't hesitate to reach out to me at any time. But with that, let's move directly into our results.
Looking at our year-to-date performance, we've delivered strong growth across all markets from 16% to 80%, depending on market, a stellar result. For this, together with pulling off the Toniebox 2 launch, a big congrats to our teams. Our growth momentum has picked up considerably in Q3. As Tobias said, this was partly due to phasing effects as we prepared retail partners for the Toniebox 2 launch, obviously, already way before we introduced it to the broader market. This affected the DACH market in particular.
Our 9 months revenues came in at EUR 322 million in constant currency, an increase of 33%. In DACH, we're continuing our usual double-digit growth track as we showed in full year 2024. And both North America and Rest of World performed strongly, too. Two other things I'd like to highlight here. First, on top line growth. We anticipated the strong phase-in in Q3. And as a result, our full year guidance remains unchanged.
And second, regarding our market split. For us, it's really important to grow globally. So an important KPI here is our share of international revenues, those outside of DACH. And we're pleased to see that we continue to gain momentum here with an increase of 6 percentage points year-over-year to 59%. This confirms our international expansion strategy works, where we grow significantly ahead of the still double-digit growing DACH market.
Overall, we're seeing a very healthy balance of growth across all regions with international markets clearly making up the majority of our business.
Looking at the category split year-to-date on this slide, you remember -- you might remember that we saw a somewhat skewed mix in half 1 of the year due to the anticipated launch of Toniebox 2 and Tonieplay. The share of Tonieboxes sold at the time reduced a bit year-on-year simply because the launch created that temporary shift in sales patterns, which we already explained in August.
In Q3, we've now seen that normalization as expected. And for year-to-date, we're back to our usual seasonality pattern. I'd also like to point out the performance of the Tonies category here, where we have seen a 36% year-over-year growth in revenues in constant currency, resulting a slight increase in overall share of the business. That is now developing exactly as we expected and how we want it to be. This disproportionate growth is the result of the successful extension of our portfolio. So particularly fueled by new products such as Tonieplay, Book Tonies, My First Tonies as well as the milestone launches like Tobias mentioned, Ms. Rachel or the Christmas Tonies.
So in short, after some temporary shifts earlier in the year, our year-to-date overview shows that Q3 brought us back to our usual healthy balance with continued momentum coming from our growing content portfolio. So, picking up from what I just shared regarding our 9 months figures, let's zoom in on Q3 because this quarter really stands out. Looking at these growth numbers, you can clearly see how much momentum we had in the third quarter. Q3 was exceptionally strong across every region, every new product category helped us reach a new level of growth. And while it's fantastic to present such a performance in my first earnings call, it is an exceptional benchmark. It was partly driven by phasing effects, as mentioned earlier. But for now, it's great to see such a strong performance driven by our latest innovations and the excitement that they have created in the market.
Now let's come back to something we've spent a lot of time on in our last call, how we're handling unpredictable macro effects, especially around U.S. tariffs. But today, we can say with confidence, we've got clarity for 2025. But more so, we've done our part to become more resilient. We have now sourcing flexibility across both figurines and box manufacturing, the latter of which we bolstered this year by opening a new production site in Vietnam already in April.
Also in regards to foreign currency, we're in a good place, even with our international business growing because we are naturally hedged via our supply chain and other expenses. When it comes to consumer sentiment, our business model continues to prove resilient. We're seeing healthy demand, strong pricing power and support from our partners as we head into Q4. So I'm glad that resilience is something that's showing up in the numbers and how we're able to move forward largely unaffected by what's happening around us.
Let me hand back to Tobias now, who will present our outlook for the full year.
Thanks, Hansjorg. Building on the resilience we just talked about, you won't be surprised that this closing section in which we present our guidance is without surprises. And I say this with confidence also for us, the most important time is now. Traditionally, Q4 makes up close to half of our annual revenues with the holiday season and special commercial moments such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday being key to our performance. This year is no different despite some intra-year phasing effects that are quite natural when you have such a big launch as ours. Something that also hasn't changed is the fact that we are approaching high season, well prepared.
Over the past years, we have learned to deliver at scale consistently recording more than 45% of our full year revenues between October and December. With 53% of our revenue target already in the books after 9 months, we are well on track to achieve our guidance and finish the year on a high note again. And as a result, we are reiterating our full year guidance for 2025. Profitable growth continues to be at the core of our story. We expect group revenue to grow by more than 25% this year in constant currency, taking us above EUR 600 million, with North America set to deliver over 30% growth in constant currency. For our adjusted EBITDA margin, we are guiding in a range of 6.5% to 8.5%. 2025 is shaping up to be another great year for Tonies. We are confident in our momentum and are well positioned to deliver strong profitable growth yet again.
And with that being said, we are now happy and ready to take your questions.
Thank you, Tobias. Let us now begin with the Q&A session. As a reminder, if you have any questions, please post in via the Zoom Q&A function and as I've seen, some of you already did. So, let's jump into the first question which we already received. Could you calibrate the Q3 growth rate versus the full year guidance? Does this mean that you will increase your guidance in the weeks to come?
Happy to take this one. So, I hope it became also clear throughout the presentation. We have no plans to change our existing guidance for the year. And as communicated before, all impacts from TB2 tariffs and everything are already included in our guidance. I want to reiterate, Q3 was exceptionally good due to phasing effects from the TB2 launch and substantial retail preorders, especially in September. Q4 will be, for sure, again, our best quarter of the year with almost 50% of revenue share. We have always delivered on our promises since the IPO in 2021, and we are confident that this is going to be another successful year for tonies. Let me put it this way.
Thanks, Tobias. The next question is an interesting one. Can you please give us a first indication regarding your expectations for '26? Will the growth dynamics be comparable to '25?
Yes, it's a great question. But let's be clear, at this very moment, it's too early to provide you with any details regarding expectations for 2026. But I would like to frame this a bit because I'm getting this question a lot, and I can understand it. We have a very large and growing sticky installed base. And we have a resilient, highly scalable business model. So, we are absolutely confident that next year will be another year with substantial growth and higher profitability. So, we are not changing anything to our business. And that said, I think you and I, we wouldn't expect anything different there. So, I think what I want you to take home, we have all ingredients for a successful and exciting year ahead. We have an exciting innovation pipeline.
Some of the elements we have already announced today, others will be announced later and next year, and I am personally very excited about that. We have a continued strong momentum in all our geographies. And as I said, we have a really, really, really good business model. So, we will give a detailed outlook for 2026 for sure, when we do our financial year 2025 review on April 14. And then I think also something you should put in your calendars at least pencil it in for Q2 next year, we are planning a Capital Markets Day.
And during that Capital Markets Day, we will provide more details about the growth potentials, not only for '26 then, but also for all the years to come.
Okay. Thanks. I hope that covers everything. I think we have the first question for Hansjorg now, and we can split it in 3 parts. So, how was your profitability in the first 9 months? That's the first part. And how do you think about EBITDA margin guidance now the tariff impacts are clear. And there's already a follow-up question in there. What will free cash flow be? So, Hansjorg, the floor is yours.
Thanks, Peter. That's 3 questions for me. Thank you. Happy to take them. So, profitability year-to-date, I think you're aware, we don't provide information regarding profitability in our Q1 and Q3 announcements. But you have seen that we've been profitable for half of -- first half of 2025 on a comparable level to the prior year. And we are happy how this is developing further in Q3. We have -- also need to add, we do have a special year with the launch of Toniebox 2 and equally tariffs.
But despite this tariff uncertainty at the beginning of the year, we have shown that we've managed the business with foresight. So, I mentioned previously, Vietnam production. And we have a toolkit at hand that now allows us to navigate this macro environment. And now thanks to the, call it, calmer environment with regards to tariffs, we believe we have sufficient clarity on our profitability for the remainder of the year, and that's why we are confirming our guidance, as I said before.
So, coming out of these 9 months with strong confidence to achieve the guided adjusted EBITDA margin between 6.5% and 8.5% in fiscal 2025. And you had a question about cash flow. We don't guide or comment on free cash flow. But what I can say, positive free cash flow is inherent in our business model. And but then also second, given we operate this year in a broader inventory environment due to the launch, right? We're launching a new box. We're expanding the portfolio, and we're growing strongly plus the volatile macro environment, we've decided for more safety in terms of a higher inventory. So this will affect our free cash flow in this period.
But we are confident for structurally strong cash flow generation in the years to come. And again, this year's decision, growth -- weighing growth decisions are of strategic nature to support our content and product expansion. I hope that clarifies?
Thanks, Hansjorg. A different topic regarding the partnerships. Can you quantify your expectations for the extended partnership with Hasbro? When can we see the first impacts?
I can't and I don't want to quantify them. I can share again my excitement, but I hope you understand that we cannot provide detailed figures for individual partnerships. But it's -- let me take this question as an opportunity to explain again how important partnerships like this one with Hasbro are for us. They are part of a multiyear portfolio and product planning strategy that we clearly have, but they are also clearly fueling our growth and our relevance as a brand in the next coming months and years.
And this is because we are building a very -- continue to building a very diverse and engaging content with very interactive formats, both, by the way, in licensed and owned and now for children aged from 1 to 9 and even older. And I think I said this a couple of times, the partnership with Hasbro is a great example, and it's also one I personally find very, very exciting because I do like the games that we are going to tonify in 2026. We see a lot of economic potential clearly.
But another thing that is important to me and also for my team is the fact that we are now also moving on the family table with the Toniebox and families, friends sitting around the Toniebox, playing with the Toniebox, multiplayer mode, single player mode, this is a complete new thing for us, and this is exciting, and I can't wait for this to happen.
Okay. Thanks. One regarding the TB2 feedback. How do you assess customer feedback on TB2 so far? What do you say about the negative feedback related to TB2 launch one can find on the social media at some places?
So, I mean, I've shared the numbers with you. The feedback on TB2 and Tonieplay has been overwhelmingly positive. It's nothing we are making up here. These are pure true numbers. So both, by the way, from consumers as well, importantly for us as well, from retailers, and you saw media as well. So the reviews that we are seeing are very promising. The sentiment that we are measuring is clearly on our side, by the way, both from upgraders as well as new joiners into the Tonies ecosystem.
So, the first learnings we take from that is that we have, I think, done an excellent job to launch a flagship product that takes everything that's been great about our previous Toniebox 1 and improves it in many ways. Also very important, the play extension and with it, obviously, with Tonieplay and all the technical improvements we have done, sound quality, design, haptics, that's something I'm really, really proud about and also what the team has done here over the last couple of years.
There's an important technical feature that excites me a lot, and I think, I guess, also a lot of you, we are going to take over-the-air updates in the future to continuously make the product better. So, this is already a fantastic product, has a lot of positive consumer sentiment and reception, but we are continuously working on new features, new exciting things that we are then going to launch over the next couple of weeks, months, even years to increase the interactivity of Toniebox 2.
And yes, there is here and there also feedback that we are taking close to our heart that we want to continue and want to improve the box in its experience. There's one thing I want to take this opportunity because I've heard it so many times, the cable that is included with TB 2 and it's actually also the #1 critics, if you read it online, is very, very short. But no, we are not saving money on cable length. This is a regulatory requirement for the box to be 1 plus certified. And if we would have actually had a longer cable, we would have not gotten this 1 plus certification.
We have probably -- we can improve the communication about this and explain to our consumers why the cable link is as it is, but it is certainly nothing we have done to save money or, yes, create frustration. So, for almost all of the feedback points, we are very confident that we will have solutions or that we are communicating better on it. The overall sentiment, the overall reception of Toniebox 2 and Tonieplay was absolutely overwhelmingly positive.
Okay. One regarding consumer sentiment. How sustainable is the current demand trend into Q4? Are you seeing any changes in consumer sentiment in your core markets?
So, I think I said it in the presentation, our business model proves continuously to be very, very resilient. And that also obviously speaks to the way we look at consumer sentiment. We are seeing very healthy demand. But then there's a second data point that you all know that we have that is important to us and that we measure very, very closely that is activation data. So, the number of Tonies and boxes that are being activated. And year-to-date, we are seeing very encouraging patterns. So, that is a good signal and a continued forward-looking signal also for us about consumer sentiment. And apart from that, as you've seen this year, again, we have very strong pricing power, and we have support from our partners, retailers and also our marketplace partners as we head into Q4.
So, I'm personally really glad that this resilience is something that is showing up in the numbers that I've just presented today and Hansjorg have presented today. And we are currently unaffected by consumer sentiment, and we are walking into Q4 with a high level of confidence.
We received 2 more questions for Hansjorg, I think. One is, you're talking about phasing for Q3, but this should only be true for the boxes. Why you think the figurines and accessors are so strong?
Yes. Thanks for the question. I think the way to think about this is the fact with the launch of Toniebox 2, we launched into a whole new category, right? Toniebox 2 comes with play, which is the attach to Toniebox 2. And with that, there is a significant phasing, namely all the games that come in the Tonies category. So, that's the phasing part. But of course, we also have organic growth, so to say, in that category from the products that I mentioned earlier that contribute to that 36% year-over-year growth in the Tonies category.
And another typical CFO question, I guess, can you break down the content licensing costs for figurines in Q3? And are there new licensing agreements that could materially increase costs in '25 or for the rest of '25, I suppose?
Yes. Breaking it down would probably go into a lot of detail. But at a high level, there is typically 2 licenses, one is for the figurine, one is for the audio for the content. And for the new formats, that is very similar for Tonieplay. But you can assume that we negotiate with our partners for new or rates for new products that will match or come in at similar levels versus where we're coming from. So, I wouldn't expect any distortions or significant volatility.
Now having said that, licensing cost ratio always depends a bit on our product mix as we've seen historically, but it's hovering around a very stable ratio.
Okay. How sustainable is the Q3 growth run rate? What would be a sustainable growth rate in the coming quarters, indication on current trading would be helpful.
I'm happy to take that. I think Hansjorg has spoken to it, and we have touched this in the presentation a couple of times. If you look at Q3 in isolation, clearly, the growth rate is influenced by the seasonal shifts we have seen due to the TB2 launch. And then that makes it clear, therefore, it is unique. We have guided a full year growth rate, and this should give you an indication for Q3.
Another one for Tobias, which product categories do you still want to penetrate? And what R&D costs are expected in Q4 and in '26?
I hope you understand I'm not going to explain our product road map to the public. There are many things that we are working on that creates a lot of excitement. And I think those of you who know me, they also -- you also can confirm that I personally stand for acceleration of our innovation speed. There's a lot more and sooner than obviously waiting another 9 years that I want to achieve with the team. I'm personally extremely excited. I can tell you that for what it's coming in '26, in '27 and '28, and I think probably the best way to look at this is and building some excitement, hopefully, with you is the Capital Markets Day because that is a good opportunity for us to also look into a bit of a broader strategy that holds for a couple more years.
Okay. As I can see, we have 3 more questions at the moment. One is regarding the Rest of World development. In Rest of World, we saw significant growth in Q3. You mentioned better product accessibility as the main driver. How do you achieve better product accessibility in those regions?
Product accessibility. So, I think if you look at the growth in Rest of World in every market, it's sustained by scaling our operations and the installed base, right? So, what we are doing is we are expanding the channel. We have more retailers, more doors, more shelf space and then all results in more velocity at the point of sales. And we have product expansion, right? So, we have above-the-box product expansion that continuous innovation, and we presented a few over the last couple of earnings calls. So, I mentioned pocket Tonies before. So that's Clever Tonies and Book Tonies, I mentioned My First Tonies. There's a lot happening and continues to happen on above-the-box innovation as we call it. And now obviously, with Toniebox 2, there is also innovation that is happening at the box level.
And as I said, there is clearly also our desire to continue working on innovation like that. And if you combine all these things in this recipe, there is continued accessibility in all region, not only in rest of world.
Okay. Thanks. We have a question from an investor who also seems to be a customer of us. As a parent, I'm excited about Toniebox 2 and plan to upgrade. From an investor perspective, could you clarify whether Toniebox 2 includes any design or manufacturing changes that are expected to reduce unit production or maintenance costs and thereby improve gross margin or operating profit?
Hansjorg, do you want to take that one?
Happy to take that, and thank you for considering to upgrade. I'm also a parent and I have upgraded. I think we have talked to this to an extent at the TB2 call. We currently do not plan with improvement in margins for this year. We rather plan with directionally similar levels as with TB1. Of course, we're working on initiatives to continuously improve our bottom line through product levers, design-to-value levers as we've shown in the past years, and we're good at it. But right now, we're not able to comment further details on that.
Okay. Here's the one related to the revenue share of TB1 and TB 2. How does it compare between the 2 Tonieboxes? How does the share of each Toniebox looks like? And what could be the rough steady-state estimate for '26?
Yes, happy to take that one, too. But a simple answer, please understand we're not breaking out this detail at the highest level or simply said TB2 replaces TB1.
That was quick. Another follow-up to the free cash flow question we already received. Can you explain what free cash flow you think tonies can achieve in Q4?
Hansjorg?
We're not providing a free cash flow guidance, as you know, as mentioned before. And then, yes, I can add 2025 is marked by high investments, right, associated with the market launch of TB2 and Tonieplay. We're expanding our portfolio. So, the strong figure that we showed in 2024 is maybe not the exact or the right comparison. But as I mentioned before, we are confident to deliver sustainable positive cash flow in the years to come as we are able to deliver on our substantial growth potentials our business model has. So free positive cash flow is inherent in the business model, but now we manage growth and product and category expansion first.
Okay. And I think we're coming to the last question we received, and this could be a question I have sent in because I'm most interested in this one. How likely is [ SDAX ] inclusion in '26?
Happy to take this one. And I'm interested in this one as well. I'm following this personally. But I have to tell you, it's difficult to answer. All of you know how it works. There are clear criteria for companies to be included in SDAX. We do qualify from -- clearly qualify from a market cap perspective. Turnover rate is the other important criteria. And based on the trading in the past few months, I would say it's increasingly likely. But I cannot predict this. And so, I would probably recommend you do your own calculation and your own estimations and follow it, and then we'll look at it again early 2026.
Okay. Since there is no other follow-up question, this concludes and wraps up our Q&A session. And as far as I have the microphone already, I continue a bit. And this is maybe also helpful for the inclusion into the SDAX in the weeks and months to come. So, it shows you a bit what we plan to do in the weeks and in the next quarter. The first glance on our financial calendar for '26 and the next official announcement date will be, as in the last years, we already did this the same way. We have scheduled the communication of Tonies preliminary results for beginning of February. And before that, we will be on the road with roadshows and conferences.
We provide the presentation anyway on our web page or it's already on our web page, so you can check yourself. And if you are available around in the cities mentioned here, we would be happy to meet you personally. So, please ask the accompanying bank or the [ Ion ] Capital Forum will be a big one end of November to show up yourself. And we will continue this with the auto conference in Lyon and another big conference in Frankfurt. So, we're happy to meet you there and continue the conversation and whenever feel free to contact us for any additional questions you have following this conference call. And now we come to the end, as usual, with the key takeaways of Tobias, and over to you.
Thank you, Peter. Maybe before I get to the wrap-up, I just want to -- thank you again for the great questions we got from you today. I also realize we didn't get to all the questions. We actually received quite a lot, which I appreciate. But maybe that's also a great connection to what you just said, Peter. If you are in one of the conferences, please make sure that you ask the question again, and we are very, very happy to answer them. Of course, you can always also reach out to Peter and our Investor Relation team, and we'll make sure that we follow up after the call.
Okay. Let me briefly state the 5 key takeaways that have defined our performance so far this year and obviously also set the stage for Q4 and beyond. First, looking at our results year-to-date, we delivered strong growth across all markets with a truly exceptional Q3. The launch of Toniebox 2 drove growth and our footprint continues to expand. Our strategy is working, and we can deliver growth even under uncertain macroeconomic circumstances. This is important.
Second, Toniebox 2 is a fantastic launch success. Let me be very, very clear here. It was important to land our biggest innovation to date, and we did. We are already seeing the first traction along our planned growth vectors that I explained and the product resonates with families, the momentum is real.
Third, we are heading into the most important time of the year, well prepared and with confidence. Our team is ready to deliver powered by the strong feedback Toniebox 2 has received. Fourth, just like Tonies, our leadership team is stronger than ever. With Ginny, Christoph, Hansjorg on board, we have a group anchored in both Germany and the U.S., combining global experience, deep functional expertise and a shared commitment to driving Tonies next chapter.
And finally, we are well positioned for '26 and beyond. Our new platform around the Toniebox 2 ecosystem sets us up for continued profitable growth and long-term success. I'm proud of what the team has achieved, and I'm excited for the crucial final stretch of the year, as well as for everything that lies ahead for Tonies next year, this year, even today because today is going to be an amazing day. Peter?
[Presentation]
Thank you, Snoop. A fantastic partnership we are really, really enjoying. So, I sincerely hope that you all have an amazing day, and I thank you for your continued interest, your trust and for joining us today. Take care. Bye-bye.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
tonies — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz 9M: EUR 322 Mio. (konst. Währung, +33% YoY)
- Q3-Wachstum: Q3-Umsatzanstieg >52% YoY (stark beeinflusst durch TB2-Phasing)
- International: Anteilsverlagerung: 59% Umsatz außerhalb DACH (+6 Prozentpunkte YoY)
- Engagement: Durchschnittliche wöchentliche Spielzeit ~282 Minuten (Nutzerbindung)
- Meilensteine & Guidance: 10 Mio. verkaufte Tonieboxen insgesamt; FY25-Guidance bestätigt: >25% Wachstum auf >EUR 600 Mio.; adjusted EBITDA‑Marge 6,5–8,5%
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Produktstrategie: Toniebox 2 plus Tonieplay erweitern das Angebot (interaktive Spiele), Ziel: größere Zielgruppen und längere Nutzungsdauer.
- Wachstumsvektoren: Drei Zielgruppen: 1+ (My First), Kern 3–6, ältere Kinder bis ~9; Mix soll Absatz, CLV und Lizenzopportunitäten erhöhen.
- Markt & Retail: Starke Platzierung in Nordamerika (Target, Walmart) und weltweite Kampagne; Partnerschaften (z. B. Hasbro) sollen Content-Pipeline stärken.
- Operative Resilienz: Sourcing-Flexibilität, neue Produktion in Vietnam und Währungsabsicherung reduzieren Tariff‑/Lieferrisiken.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Guidance: Bestätigung FY25: Gruppenumsatzwachstum >25% (Ziel >EUR 600 Mio.); Nordamerika >30% Wachstum (konst. Währung); adj. EBITDA 6,5–8,5%.
- Q4-Einordnung: Q4 bleibt das umsatzstärkste Quartal (~45–50% des Jahres), Q3-Phasing erklärt die Spitze.
- Cashflow: Kein Free‑Cash‑Flow‑Guidance; höhere Lagerbestände für den Launch drücken kurzfristig den FCF, strukturell positives FCF erwartet.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Guidance‑Abfrage: Management will Guidance nicht anheben; Q3-Überperformance resultiert aus Phasing und Vorbestellungen.
- 2026‑Ausblick: Zu früh für konkrete Zahlen; detaillierter Ausblick bei der Finanzjahres‑2025‑Präsentation am 14. April und auf dem geplanten Capital Markets Day (Q2).
- Profitabilität & Risiken: Keine Detailaufstellung zu Q3‑Profitabilität; Bestätigung, dass Tarife und Lizenzkosten beherrschbar sind und keine signifikanten Margenverzerrungen erwartet werden.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bewertung: Toniebox 2‑Launch liefert starke Nachfrage und erhöhtes Engagement; Q3 war überdurchschnittlich, Guidance bleibt konservativ bestätigt. Kurzfristig wird FCF durch Inventar beeinflusst, langfristig spricht die Plattform‑/Content-Strategie für nachhaltiges, profitables Wachstum.
tonies — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Welcome to tonies H1 2025 Presentation. My name is Peter Dietz, and I'm from the Investor Relations team. Today, our CEO, Tobias; and CFO, Jan will first walk you through our presentation. And afterwards, we invite you to submit your questions via the Zoom Q&A function.
That's it from my side. And now over to you, Tobias.
Thank you, Peter. A warm welcome from my side as well. Thank you all for joining us. Allow me a few personal words to start with. When preparing for this call, I reflected on the first half of the year, and there was one specific day my mind kept returning to, April 2. Since then, and I think you all agree, the world is different and what we saw back on the day and in the weeks and months thereafter was unprecedented. Some called it Liberation Day. For us at tonies, it felt more like uncertainty day.
Like many companies, the tariff situation gave us headaches. We set up task forces, we adjusted planning scenarios, we optimized our supply chain, but would that be enough? At the time, I did not know. Today, 4.5 months later, I do. And I'm proud to say that thanks to our resilient business model, tonies has continued to grow almost as if uncertainty day had never happened. We have navigated headwinds. We have overcome turbulence through flexibility, through preparation, and through operational excellence. It has been a total team effort, and I want to thank all members of the tonies team around the world. We've achieved strong financials far from guaranteed at the start, and we have laid the groundwork to deliver on our goals for the second half, a second half that promises to be the most innovative since our company's foundation.
Jan and I will now take you deeper into these topics. But first, let me start once again with one of my favorite slides. It confirms some very encouraging achievements, underlining that the idea of tonies, the product, the connection we have is unfaced by macroeconomic shifts. We are expanding our #1 global position dynamically across the world. Second, we are growing our platform. And third, we have every reason to look ahead with confidence. By the end of June, we have sold over 9.5 million Tonieboxes and more than 125 million Tonies. Each of these boxes represents the home in which we are part of everyday life. And each Tonie sparks imagination and joy and drives engagement with our platform.
So what's so special about these numbers is not only our reach to more than the 100 countries, but the depth of engagement. On average, children spend more than 4.5 hours per week with their Toniebox. That is screen-free creative play in today's world, a rare and valuable connection. And connection is what our relationship with families is all about. It's reflected in the feedback we receive personally, online, via retailers, but also in our outstanding Net Promoter Score. And that NPS is not just a KPI, it is the voice of parents saying, I trust this for my child and I want to tell my friends about it. And such a level of trust is rare, and it is something we really, really treasure.
Let us now take a closer look at how these foundations translated into our performance in the first half of the year. In that first half of the year, we continued our growth trajectory. 20% top line growth at constant currencies amounted to group revenues of EUR 177 million. Our platform continues to grow even against a challenging macro environment and against external headwinds. Again, our business model has proven to be very resilient. Let us break it down by region, so you can see how each market contributed to this strong performance.
In DACH, we generated EUR 71 million in revenues, on par with the solid prior year period. That was despite foreseen shifts in wholesale order patterns, which I will comment on later. After a softer Q1, we turned the momentum with sequential growth in Q2 and at the same time, paved the way for growth with new products. North America again delivered an impressive growth rate of 28% at constant currencies and remains on track to be our largest market. And that is despite the tariff situation already discussed. Combine that with profitability after 6 months in the U.S., we are very positive that we can build further on this momentum. And the Rest of the World region performed simply outstanding, growing exceptionally at 78% to EUR 35 million. Overall, this is a really, really strong performance across all markets driven by sustained high demand for our products.
With regards to profitability, we improved our operational excellence so significantly that we generated a positive margin despite all external challenges we have seen. Jan will talk about this in more detail. Our adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 2.1%, the EBITDA margin at 1.8%, both slightly lower than last year, but a good reflection of our resilience in a volatile and investment-heavy time. In the past two earnings calls, we decided against publishing a guidance due to all the uncertainty caused by tariffs. We were always confident that 2025 will be another year of profitable growth for tonies though. Given we have more certainty now, we will provide more transparency today, and I will close this presentation with a detailed outlook on the full year.
Now moving away from the financials. On the right-hand side of the slide is one highlight I'm most proud of, the continued expansion of our platform. Picture this. In just 6 months, we sold more than 13 million Tonies. To put this into perspective, that is over 10% of all Tonies ever sold since 2016 achieved in just 6 months. This shows the incredible momentum in our content business. It creates stable recurring engagement and long-term value for the business. With this high level of unit growth, high repeat engagement and strong financial performance, let us now turn to the key themes that are driving this momentum even beyond the first half of the year.
So looking at our first 6 months, we made tangible progress across all strategic levers. Let me focus on a few standout areas here. First, let's look at our markets, how we prepared to build on our momentum in the U.S. and Rest of World and how we target growth with product innovation in DACH. Then I'll highlight some product developments. We had great launches in H1. We have a lot in store for the second half, and we have encouraging data that underscores our products impact. Of course, we'll give an update on the current tariff situation to help you understand how we have adapted, how we have managed and how we have brought the situation under control. And finally, I want to comment on our leadership setup going forward, which will help us accelerate our international growth further.
So let's start with North America. There, we not only continued our growth momentum, but also prepared for an even stronger second half of the year. Retail partners continue to be key drivers of our ongoing expansion. Today, about 90% of the U.S. toy market is covered by three major players: Target, Walmart, Amazon. Let me outline how we build up our presence in North America by leveraging these three partnerships.
Since 2024, we are present in all North American Target stores. That is 100% market coverage, a long way from our first online listings in 2020 or the seasonal in-store presences that we're following that. Building on this, we will now increase our shelf space by 50% to 12 feet in each store. As we have seen exponential growth with shelf space expansion in the past, this will accelerate revenue growth in the second half of the year period. At Walmart, a big change is underway. In Q3, so right now, tonies is moving from the consumer electronics section into the toy section. And I have to tell you, this is one of the very rare category changes Walmart has ever made for an external partner. It puts us right where parents and kids are browsing for toys, increasing our visibility, increasing sales velocity, increasing brand relevance ahead of the holiday season.
And on Amazon, which is direct-to-customer consumer for us, we continue to deliver on special commercial moments. This Prime Day, we sold 50% more units compared to the previous Prime Day, driven by doubling the numbers of Tonies sold. This underscores our momentum and tonies' popularity in a very competitive market environment. Amazon remains not only our high-volume sales channel, but also a very critical source of insights to react fast to consumer trends.
So across all those three partners, we have prepared for reach, for visibility, for conversion. Combined with a strong organization and logistics setup, this gives us a powerful engine for Q4. And particularly in light of tariffs, let me highlight. All of these partnerships evolving to this stage are clear undisputable signs of confidence of all major retailers in our largest market. You do not capture shelf space from competition like that, you do not move categories like that, you do not deliver D2C moments like that if tonies were at risk by tariffs.
And I would even go further than that, we might as well emerge as a general winner from this situation. So our engine has proven very resilient in times of uncertainty. Our U.S. business has been largely untouched by tariff effects. This gives us even more confidence that we are well positioned to deliver strong growth in the U.S. for the remainder of this year, but also in the midterm.
Turning to our home market DACH, our blueprint for profitability and a key contributor to our bottom line. In the first half of the year, our DACH business recorded an EBITDA margin of 16.5%. Put differently, our profitability in DACH fuels our organic investments in other markets. Our goal is to continue growing our top line here as well. In Q2, we saw this picking up as a result of constantly delivering innovation. The DACH market is hungry for it, as shown by the great success of Clever Tonies for older kids last year. At the end of Q2 this year, we launched our Book Tonies in DACH.
Book Tonies are long-form audio books that increase engagement with older target groups, a key factor to grow in developed markets. In addition, Book Tonies have a shorter development time. But most important, just like Clever Tonies, they have hit a nerve in the market. We see it in conversations with retail partners, and we observe it in usage data. Engaging with kids above 5 extends the life cycle of our platform in households and unlock significant new growth potential.
Book Tonies work like a charm in this regard, 53% of activations come from households with children over 5. In addition, the listening behavior reflects our approach to deepen engagement. Given the longer content, the average playtime session increases with around 42 minutes. We are excited to see the impact on weekly average playtime as we bring more Book Tonies to the market. After launching 11 SKUs in the first half of the year, we expect our Book Tonies portfolio to grow to around 20 SKUs by the year-end. So to summarize, DACH is highly profitable and DACH still has a great potential for growth. Innovation remains the key driver here. We have seen the success of Clever Tonies, we are seeing the hunger for new content of our own IPs, now we are off to a good start with Book Tonies, and that gives us confidence for all that is up next.
And then I alluded to it, our fastest growth in 2025 came from what we call Rest of the World. And while we expected that, I must say I am -- we are stunned with the market moving impact we have seen. In Australia and New Zealand, this momentum from our 2024 market launch is continuing into 2025. And a general remark here, after 2 consecutive years of market decline, the overall toy industry in Australia grew by 7% in H1. And our Toniebox Starterset was the #1 item in the entire toys category in Q2. We take pride in our innovation power and then the fact that the Toniebox has opened up interactive audio entertainment, a completely new category for families. But seeing how vitalizing our concept can be for an entire market, for an entire industry is a fantastic motivator going forward.
In France, the flywheel effect of our business is also clearly visible. I spoke about reaching a tipping point last quarter. Now we see the acceleration after Toniebox sales nearly doubled year-on-year in the first half. Tonies, so the figurine sales grew even faster, more than 2.5x compared to last year. So once a household owns a box, the behavior we see is subscription-like, steadily buying a collection over time. We have seen that kind of dynamic continue in other markets, making France another territory for years of sustained growth to come. These results prove that our brand resonates quickly with families even in highly competitive markets such as France. The combination of strong global product market fit, effective marketing and growing retail partnerships gives us confidence in the scalability of our model across new geographies.
But very importantly, our growth story is not just about entering new markets, it is also about the positive impact we create for the next generation. This is why we do what we do. With our products, we help foster awareness, inspire imagination and reduce screen time. This is a topic that is very close to my heart. In 2024, we published our first sustainability report, reflecting this holistic approach. And given our focus, we go beyond traditional ESG categories to include our mission of creating a positive impact for children's development and well-being. That is why our product design, our content choices and our business decisions are guided by responsibility for the planet, for the people and for the families who use Tonies every day. For us, sustainability means making sure technology serves children, supporting their growth, encouraging their creativity.
Latest research is backing the success of our concept. We just received results from studies showing that children who listened to a Toniebox scored 32% higher in emergent literacy compared to those who did not. And they were also significantly less likely to exceed 1 hour of daily screen time. Tonies is more than just entertainment. It's a platform that helps children listen, learn and grow in a responsible way while giving parents confidence and peace of mind.
Our positive impact is amplified by the strength of our content and innovation pipeline. This is a really important part of our presentation today. The first half of 2025 already brought a rich mix of launches, but there's more, much more to come in the weeks and months ahead. From January to June, we delivered a balanced portfolio of new launches catering to both our loyal Toniebox households and to new customer segments like the Book Tonies.
Let me mention some highlights. We grew our Tonies Originals portfolio and extended popular franchises, keeping beloved characters front and center while driving repeat purchases. As I said, in DACH, we launched Book Tonies. In the U.S., the much anticipated launch of Ms. Rachel strengthened our preschool portfolio and exceeded our expectations. The buzz we created in communities and on social media drove beyond anything we thought we could do. The best part with half the year in the books, we are only 1/3 of the way through our planned 2025 launches. These include tonies launching live with movie starts and new beloved franchises. So with roughly 65% of our launches still to come, you can expect great things in the month ahead. And on top of our strong content pipeline, we have planned something very special, something we have also allocated significant resources to in the first half. So let me assure you it's going to be really, really exciting.
One thing maybe less exciting, but a topic we needed to address over the past month, tariffs. We expect them to remain a relevant topic as the situation will likely stick around for the foreseeable future. But at tonies, we have made good progress since April 2, and we have the situation under control. We now have better visibility on tariff levels through the end of 2025 and beyond. We can plan ahead with confidence and make informed sourcing and pricing decisions well in advance. As you will hear later, this also puts us in the position to give a clear, reliable guidance to the market for the year.
Across our key sourcing countries, tariff agreements have been announced or are at least stable in the case of China. The rates we see for China, Vietnam, Tunisia and Bosnia are all lower than the maximum tariff rates previously discussed. In addition, we started diversifying our supply chain well before April 2. I've said this many, many times. We are very well prepared to manage and adapt the situation. The head start with our supply chain help as does agility within our organization. We have a toolbox at hand that proved and continues to prove effective. Our diversified supply chain for Tonieboxes, figurines and accessories allows us to flexibly shift volumes across jurisdictions.
Our position as a category creator and leader gives us the ability to set prices appropriately without losing competitiveness. Healthy cash reserves and a new syndicated loan gives us room to maneuver. Jan will come to this later. And ongoing improvements in unit economics, together with strong partnerships help us protect margins. In short, tariffs might be here to stay. They do have an impact on the way we do business, and we would clearly prefer not to have them, but we are well prepared, and we do not expect them to derail our overall growth or our execution plans.
Let us look maybe closer at two of the examples I mentioned. First, our diversified sourcing strategy. We prepared a shift of Toniebox production capacities to Vietnam well before the current tariff situation. That is why we were able to get it up and running at full capacity as of April 1, 1 day before the initial announcement of tariffs. This move enabled us to shift capacities without losing any degree of productivity. The site in Vietnam combines high technical capacity with the ability to produce Tonieboxes at scale. By the end of 2025, by the end of this year, it will have the potential to produce over 1.8 million units annually. And by the end of July 2025 alone, we had already shipped more than 330,000 Tonieboxes from Vietnam to the U.S. All this while operating the same efficiency at the same unit cost and at the same quality standards that we know from other sites, for example, China. This gives us flexibility to shift volumes between sites to reduce dependency on any single country and to navigate tariffs more effectively.
Next slide. Another important lever in our toolbox is our pricing power. As the category creator and market leader in a very resilient business, we are able to set prices in a way that reflects the value we deliver without losing customer trust or market share. In the U.S., we did that as of May 1, increasing Tonies figurines prices by approximately $2 on average. We have done that. And as of now, 2 months in, we see no substantial impact. This is what pricing power looks like when prices are grounded in the value we deliver.
Moving into the next chapter of our journey. We have strengthened our Management Board with two outstanding leaders who bring the right mix of experience, energy and passion for our mission. Our new setup reflects our increasingly international footprint as well as our growth ambitions. While I can tell you we will miss Jan dearly going forward, I'm also happy we conducted a thorough succession planning for his role as CFO. I look forward to welcoming Hansjörg Müller as our new CFO starting September 1, with more than 20 years in senior leadership across entertainment and consumer goods at Netflix, Electronic Arts and Procter & Gamble. He combines deep financial expertise with a strong track record in scaling global brands. And this will help us steer tonies through our next growth phase with the right balance of ambition and financial discipline.
I'm equally happy that Christoph Frehsee joined our Management Board as first Chief Revenue Officer effective July 1. A familiar face to some of you. Christoph has been with tonies for years and successfully built our North American business from the ground up as General Manager. He will remain located in the U.S., but now oversee a global function to drive growth across all channels and markets. With his profile as a proven entrepreneur and with more than 15 years in business building roles, he is perfectly equipped to do that and complements our setup ideally. So with Ginny as CXO, Hansjörg as CFO; and Christoph as CRO next to me on the Board, we now have a truly cross-functional leadership team based both in Germany and the U.S., combining global experience, deep expertise and a shared passion to take tonies to the next level together.
And before we move on, there is one additional highlight I would like to share with you. Patric Fassbender, tonies' Co-Founder, has rejoined tonies as a member of our Supervisory Board. This happened as planned after completing his cooldown period. All of you -- most of you remember, more than 10 years ago, Patric, together with Marcus Stahl, came up with the original ideas for tonies, and created the foundation for the company and brand we know today. His return brings not only his deep product and brand expertise, but also the creative vision and passion that have been at the heart of tonies since the very beginning.
I would now like to hand over to Jan for a deep dive into the financials.
Yes. Good morning, everyone, also from my side. I'm very happy to take you through the highlights of H1 from the financial side. And as Tobias already said, it's been a dynamic first half of the year, but it's been a really good one for tonies. It is actually coming in exactly as we expected it to be. And there are several pretty noteworthy succession -- successes we have celebrated. I'll come to that in a minute. And what makes me very, very happy if I look at the top line is that we see continued 20% year-over-year growth, which is a stable expression of a successful international product expansion. And you can see it as the share of international business has now increased again year-over-year to 60%. And our international expansion strategy is clearly working.
And also, you see a lot of dynamic growth in all regions. I'll speak to DACH in a minute because there were some Q1 effects that actually have turned around Q1, and Q2 DACH is back on a growth track. And I think that is exciting for some of you who had questions on that effect that we explained in Q1. Also, we are on comparable profitability levels versus our prior year. That means we're growing in hyperspace profitably. And our adjusted EBITDA is coming in at 2.1% EBITDA and 1.8% margin. And what makes me very excited about it is that North America has turned profitable on a segment reporting view for the first time in a half year period. It just shows that our business model is profitable and that we are successful in replicating that business model in our international expansion. And the main achievements on the profitability side, what you will see is coming from the contribution margin. I'll speak to that in a minute. And I think some interesting effects to observe there as well.
On the cash side, I feel very, very confident. We were at EUR 39 million of cash on balance sheet. We had not used or just to a neglectable level, our available credit facilities. So that means our cash available with EUR 121 million is a very solid foundation. And Tobias said it before, also in these dynamic tariff environments, I think it's testament to us being able to secure the business against potential macroeconomic volatility, but also most importantly, to finance everything that we want to finance for our Q4 Christmas business.
I'll move on and discuss with you now the management P&L, which I think is a pretty strong H1 2025. On the left-hand side, you see the 2025 numbers, '24 next to it and then the change in deviation. So what's probably most noteworthy if we stay on H1 is an incredible improvement of the contribution profit. So the margin is up 5.6 percentage points. And you probably say, wow, what has been the driver behind that? Well, it's several things. It's mix effect, as always, right? But the most important things are we have optimized our procurement and sourcing. So we have not only prepared for tariffs as Tobias said, we have also executed some of those. We have important mix effects in our product mix. Please always remember, we're more profitable on the tonies on the attach, on the blades in our business model, and you see it in product mix. And this is driving up the contribution margin.
And you can see those effects then being supported by better licensing rate. Right-hand side there, if you look below the 3.6 the PPs, you see fulfillment is better year-over-year. There are several of those mix effects in, but most importantly, it's better sourcing and also product mix. And then you see some effects below the contribution margin to EBITDA, which tells you that we've probably been investing. We have been investing in product and international growth. And you can see that with the marketing expenditures slightly increasing versus prior period and similarly on the SG&A side, you see it in personnel, but a little bit more on the OpEx side. And this also includes certain, of course, mitigation costs for tariff effects. But again, I said it before, this P&L is strong. We are very happy with it, and it is coming in as expected.
I would like to run now through a bit of a dissection of the growth. The growth is coming essentially from our international expansion. And I particularly want to spend time on the DACH effect because some of you have discussed it with me also in individual calls or when we were on the road. DACH was negative in Q1. You'll see in a minute, it's positive again in Q2. Q1 negative effect in DACH has been the result of an extremely strong Q4 2024. So big orders have been on a cutoff fall into the Q4 of -- or the December period of 2024. So overall, we're very, very happy. DACH is not in decline. Even if you look on it, it's fading that needs to be considered and baseline effects.
And if I then look at North America and Tobias call it out also Rest of the World, I see super, super strong growth rate. Very, very healthy behavior. Please remember, we announced last year around that we're transitioning into expanded shelf space and setting it with major retail partners in the U.S. So there's even a strong baseline in the U.S. versus last year, and we're doing well. And it results, as I said, in strong increase in the share of our international business to 60%.
If you now look on the next slide on the product mix, you will see effects here. So if you look on Tonieboxes and Tonies, this is the most noteworthy thing to consider. I spoke about our contribution margin, and I said that the contribution margin with over 40% is impacted by product mix. We have been selling, relatively speaking, more Tonies this half year 1 versus the prior year and a little less boxes. This is a good sign, not a bad sign. Our platform is healthy. Consumer demand is healthy. But we've just seen for some phasing effects here, stronger demand on the Tonies side, and this is something you should take as a good sign.
I personally believe it's actually super exciting. If you see a contribution margin of about 40%, you probably remember that we guided during our IPO to a target contribution margin of about 40% -- above 40%. You see it again in this H1. So that means we are on track. We're moving towards our midterm guidance, and I think that is something very positive to take away.
I spoke also about Q2 and that, that is back on track. On the next slide, you'll see that here, left-hand side, DACH plus 1%, we are growing. It's not as much so that we can cover the Q1 effect. But overall, I think I've made sufficient alluding or explanation why we're very relaxed about the DACH situation for the full year and the remainder to come.
With this, I want to move on one more slide and look at the segment reporting. Segment reporting here, I spoke to it, as I said, it's a very strong profitability profile because we have increased profitability in all segments. DACH slightly behind, but North America, first time profitable, Rest of the World better. You see the stronger contribution margin effect coming through if you compare it to prior year levels. And there might be some questions why DACH has been having a bit lower contribution, but it's mix effects. It's investment effects. It's nothing that gives me any concerns. It's just an interpretation, I would say, of the H1 figures as well. So overall, we are we are very, very confident here. So that shows you that the business model works. We have a strong H1, which puts us in a good position to continue our spree and strategy execution in the second half of the year.
Let's move on. EBITDA, given we have some effects, I want to spend some time again walking you through the bridge. So you see the strong COGS improvement year-over-year. As I said, we have reduced purchase prices for all of our products, so successful in sourcing. We have optimized our logistics cost. We have certain effects from a weaker U.S. dollar as we're sourcing there and most importantly, also product and channel mix effects. Licensing costs coming in better. There can always be depending on product mix, a few ups and downs in this range. So that is good news.
Fulfillment costs, we have been good at optimizing versus prior year. You see that marketing increased versus prior year. I spoke to that. We've taken deliberate decisions to invest into international and product expansion, and that's also how you should interpret personnel costs and OpEx costs to some extent. OpEx includes, in addition, mitigation costs for the supply chain and tariff situation, and that is something you might even want to think as partially one-off. But overall, for the full year, we believe we are in a very, very good position now to mitigate to the best possible extent the effects from tariffs that Tobias was alluding to.
Final slide I have before you today is on the cash position. Comparison here is versus the full year of 2024, of course. You can see that operating cash flow with the typical seasonality effects, investing in financing as well, some FX effects in there. That's, of course, not surprising. But I think the most noteworthy point is that if you compare the year-over-year cash position in last year's H1, we reported an effective cash position. So cash on balance sheet and on account plus available credit lines of EUR 40 million, whilst we're now at EUR 120 million. And I think that gives me a lot of reassurance that we're in a good position for the remainder of the year.
As my slides are coming to an end, I also just want to take one personal note. And as you know, I've taken the decision to leave tonies and my tenure is coming to an end by end of August. I'd like to take the opportunity to say thank you to everyone on this call and beyond for the great collaboration, our shareholders, analysts, partners. It's been a pleasure working with you. I want to thank also the whole Supervisory Board, our founders, the Management Board colleagues and all tonies. It's always been an honor and a pleasure to work with tonies. I'm really, really excited about tonies. And I'm sure that with Hansjörg, a great successor in place. I'll still be around with the company, but still wanted to say thank you to everyone. It's been a pleasure.
And with this, back to Tobias on the outlook for the year.
Thank you, Jan, for giving us a great overview of the first half 2025 results and the progress we have made this year. And thank you for all the great contributions as tonies' CFO over the last years. You have been a fantastic business partner and also a friend to work with.
As I mentioned at the beginning of the call, we now have greater clarity on key factors. And this gives us a stronger foundation for our planning and allows us to move forward with confidence. Building on a strong first half, let me take you through our guidance for the full year and how we see our profitable growth story continuing in 2025. So for the full year 2025, we expect group revenue to grow by more than 25% year-over-year in constant currency, taking us above EUR 600 million. This reflects continued strong demand across all markets and all channels.
In North America, we forecast revenue growth of more than 30% year-over-year in constant currency and building on our momentum and the significant retail and brand presence we have established. We expect our adjusted EBITDA margin to come in between 6.5% and 8.5%, achieving profitability similar or even above last year in this unprecedented environment. That will be a strong result of efficiency gains that help us absorb tariff effects for 2025 and extraordinary investments in product, in content and in market expansion. Some of these investments will impact the second half of the year, a half year that features an incredibly strong innovation pipeline, as I alluded to earlier, which will only accelerate the fantastic momentum on our -- of our communities around the world. The contribution of this is reflected in these targets.
So let me say it very clearly, we are in a great position. Over the past years, we have continuously delivered on our goals of high growth and lately profitable growth. Our growth prospects are as strong as ever, and I'm very confident this will only improve in the coming months. Who would have thought that on April 2? So stay tuned for the next chapters of our journey. We are now looking forward to your questions. Peter?
Thank you, Tobias. Thank you, Jan. Let us now begin with the Q&A session. As always, as a reminder, if you have any questions, please post them via the Q&A function. Let me check and do we have a very interesting question already. It is, do you have any comments on the rumors regarding a new TB-2 box and the launching date September 15? Can you give further information about the innovation pipeline in H2?
Yes. I'm very happy to take this one. And I think I hinted a couple of times throughout the presentation, and I have started to hint, I believe, three or four quarterly calls in the past. So in general, please do understand that we do not comment on any of the market rumors. But what we can say and what we just presented in our call is that tonies has a very sustainable and impressive innovation pipeline. And this innovation pipeline covers many aspects of our product. It covers all what we call here internally above-the-box innovations, and I talked about Clever Tonies. I talked about Book Tonies that we brought out. We have more very, very interesting and completely new Tonie innovations, above-the-box innovation that will come up. But we also will continue to work on the box level innovation. And there is something exciting coming up in the second half of the year, and I can't wait for basically showing it to all of you, and I will show it to all of you when it's time, but that time has not quite yet come. I hope you understand that.
We collected many more questions. The next one is, why is the margin spread in your guidance still so big? What uncertainties do you still see for H2? What are the upside or potential downside risks?
Great question. So we delivered on our promises since the IPO. I've said this many times, I'd say it again on this call. And very clearly, this is also our ambition for 2025, and that was also leading us in our guidance. Also, the picture of the U.S. tariffs has become much, much clearer. We still face some general geopolitical uncertainties that we need to deal with.
I think I said it in April in our latest call without the U.S. tariff turbulences, we would have given a guidance in the earnings range between 9% and 11%. So you see that 2% margin spread that we have now between 6.5% and 8.5% is pretty much what we would have actually shown under normal circumstances. And as we will continue to obviously normal circumstances in the years to come, there will be guidance margins or this margin spread that we can potentially continue to expect.
And the next one, the topic was already addressed, but they asked for more details. The number of Tonieboxes seems to have come down in H1. Is this a general situation effect? And how will you address this?
So let me say this once and again, very clearly, nothing to worry at all. This is mostly to order phasing effects. We expect a much stronger H2 with regards to Tonieboxes, but obviously also Tonies. And this is something that has -- can be explained with those special effects, but more to come on this very, very soon. I think it will become very, very clear very soon.
Okay. The next one is regarding the consumer restraints in the U.S. How do you see the risk of consumer restraints there, especially for Christmas sales in view of possible economic downturns?
Yes, great question. And I think I also touched on this when I was talking about the U.S. and our recent development in the U.S. From all what we see, we do not have any reasons to expect customer restraints or cooling down customer sentiment for this Christmas season, neither in the U.S. actually nor in the rest of the tonies' world. We here strongly believe that parents will always continue to focus on their kids' happiness, especially regarding Christmas and that they will continue to invest and buy for their kids. It's a very, very resilient category.
So another proof point, as I said, for tonies potentially decoupling even from economic worries in the U.S. that may be there or may be looming overall is that we only have seen very negligible volume effects observed post price increases on selected of our tonies that I referred to on May 1. So we've been able in the past and even this year to increase prices without notable volume effects.
Thanks, Tobias. And it would be a shame if you wouldn't have any question for Jan in his final call. So I think this looks like a good one for you. Your contribution margin looks exceptional. What is your full year expectation?
Thank you that you're also thinking about me this call. Yes, contribution margin, and I tried to make that point earlier. So what you see here is that we have a higher share of tonies. And you also know for those of you who track us that the second half of the year and especially Q4 is typically Toniebox time. That's where the majority of the people get into the system. So as a result, you should expect that the contribution margin drops. It should drop by product mix, but there's also secondary effect to be taken into consideration.
The tariffs set by the U.S. administration, they have come into effect in April. And all of the inventory that we're bringing into the country for the Christmas business is only starting to sell through in the second half of the year. So tariff effects also will only materialize in the second half. So please expect the contribution margin to drop. But I really love to look at this H1 because it tells me that whatever tonies has promised and that was over 40% contribution margin is real. It's inherent in the business model. And I think that's something very, very exciting that I also do see in the segment reporting. But for the full year, this 42% will, of course, drop also below 40%.
Okay. Next one. And two questions, which seem to be quite similar. Can you kindly elaborate on the increase of other expenses, which are way above the revenue growth? How much of this growth is in line with the revenue growth? And what are onetime effects?
Yes. I think there's another one also coming around operating expenses, et cetera. I tried to explain that in the presentation. We have a particular effect here as we have taken deliberate decisions to invest into product and international expansion. And that is what you should interpret those numbers. And I think that is an important one to consider. We will, of course, see operating leverage coming through in the second half of the year, but there's always a bit of a pre-invest. There's, of course, a smaller FX effects, et cetera. But overall, this is the main explanation for this development.
Okay. Next question is regarding margin development. In North America, contribution margin is almost identical to DACH, yet EBITDA margin is only 1% versus 16% at DACH. Is this big gap simply due to higher fixed costs at the scaling phase or something more structural and it continues? And should we expect North America EBITDA margins to converge towards DACH levels as revenue scales?
Great question. Thank you. I'll take it. Let me just generally say. In the U.S., we do have higher fixed costs, but also much higher revenue potential. The U.S. is by far not as grown up, let's say, as the DACH market. There's more operating leverage to be expected in the next years. Just to give you a number that I always like to refer to, we are about, let's say, 50% to 60% with regards to household penetration in the DACH region in our targeted age group. That same number in the U.S. is more like 10% to 12%. So you see the runway we still have ahead of us in the U.S. despite the fact that the U.S. is now our biggest market. So you can expect more growth, and we're going to invest in more growth and more profitable growth in the U.S.
I think the second part, we've never and will not guide target profitability in North America. Maybe we do this at a later point, for example, at the Capital Market Day. But what we said and what we are doing is that we are replicating the DACH blueprint across regions, and North America is obviously a very important region. So you will see North America growing in profitability. But please understand that at this very moment, I won't comment on an exact profitability target.
Okay. And the next one we have is regarding the payroll growth. Is it in line with the revenue growth? Where did most of the hiring happen?
Looks like a CFO question to me. I will take it. So hiring happened across the group. So you know us, we are investing into international growth. You can expect that hiring and investment happened in our international markets. That also includes, of course, growing the U.S. business, that includes investing into capabilities. You have seen that we have brought on board Ginny last year on the Management Board level, et cetera. So with the growing size of the business, we're also building capabilities and bring exciting talent to tonies to sustain our further journey.
And we do similarly also on the functions. So the functions also get strengthening, as I mentioned, in Ginny's area and the product and operations, et cetera, et cetera. So this is across the Board. And I think it's a healthy development to do this. We typically have a bit of a prebuilding in H1. You'll always see more leverage on the personnel cost side in the second half of the year. So this is how this trend should be read, and hope that makes sense to you.
And there's another one in this direction, which asks for more details. Can you please -- it's also for Jan. Can you please elaborate on your personnel expenses and discuss plus 15% headcount versus plus 27% personnel expenses despite strong euro? I think you addressed this already.
Yes. Again, we're also investing into senior talent, and that comes with all the growth, you know that. So we're making sure that our organization grows at the same pace and capability development as the business does. And I think it's a very healthy and good development. And again, I want to refer to the H1, H2 full year then leveraging effect. That's probably also something that explains the figures on a full year basis.
Okay. And a detailed question regarding the tariffs, giving some clarity around tariffs. When -- no, sorry, did you split the IP software from the physical structure? As according to my understanding, IP software might be tariff-free.
That is an expert question, tariffs on me. Yes, it's split. IP, so payments made to licenses is not subjected by tariffs, you're completely right.
Okay. That's why I mixed it up with the next question. Given some clarity around tariffs, when do you expect to hold your Capital Markets Day you postponed in May?
Yes. That's -- I expected that question, and it's absolutely rightful. We didn't want to do it in May because of the situation we're in, not having given a guidance, not really having clarity on tariffs, which has clearly changed by now. We'll inform you as soon as we are feeling confident to lock in a specific date. But from all I can see right now and what I would find and deem the right time is probably Q2 of 2026 after we are reporting our 2025 full year earnings. So that seems to be a good timing to me. But please stay tuned, we will inform you as soon as we have a specific date to announce.
There are two more regarding price increases in the U.S. One is, could you talk about the magnitude of price increases, more general question and the consumer reaction in it? I think it was partially addressed in the presentation. And how much were box prices increased?
So we have adjusted pricing in parts in our classic Tonies lineup. That's what I referred to effective May 1 from EUR 17.99 to EUR 19.99. And in the U.S. specifically, I don't know if all of you know, we have three price categories. We also reduced prices in the lowest tier to EUR 9.99. So we have -- we continue to have three price points and the higher price point, which is, by the way, also the one where we have most of the classic content Tonies is the one that we increased from EUR 17.99 to EUR 19.99. We have clearly discussed this with our partners, and they understood the rationale behind it. And as I said, we have only -- if only we've seen temporary volume effects, but clearly, we outgrew this very, very, very quickly. We have kept prices on Tonieboxes. We have kept prices on the Book Tonies, on Clever Tonies, and we will obviously continue to drive profitable growth within the pricing structure that we currently have.
I think we have time for two more questions. How many point of sales do you currently have in the U.S.? Idea is to go to importance of Target and Walmart.
Yes, I'm happy to take this one as well. Please understand, I feel more confident and happy to speak about this a bit more broadly, but you can definitely expect us to grow our footprint again. We are currently selling at the end of 2024, that's at least the latest number I have in mind in around a little bit over 9,000 point of sales in the U.S. And for reference, Target has about 1,750 stores, and we are selling in all of those 1,750 stores. Target and Walmart are key channels for us as is the wider industry. I mean U.S. retail is clearly more concentrated than we are used to see this in Germany or in Europe. But we have plenty of further growth potential in U.S. retail. There's quite a few significant retailers that we are just about to enter. We are not yet in, but we're having final discussions to enter.
So we'll see that we will have more retailers joining our ecosystem. We're expanding point of sales. We're growing shelf space, super, super important. This is this magic formula. I'm always referring to as point of sales times shelf space, times velocity, that is literally defining wholesale success. So more point of sales, more shelf space. And then all of this will see sales productivity or velocity going up.
Just to give you one last hint here, and I think it is a very good comparison also for us and a good aspiration. I said in Target, we are growing from 8 feet to 12 feet this year, 50% growth in shelf space. LEGO in Target has 72 feet. We will have 12, LEGO has 72. We have examples of retailers in Europe, Germany that also now have 72 feet and even more reserved for tonies. I'm not saying we'll get there, but I'm saying we have done it and we've proven it in other markets. The U.S. very much follows other markets. We are at 12 feet right now, LEGO has 72 feet, so there's ample room for growth.
Okay. We have two quick questions we can combine for Jan, I think. One is regarding the DACH return to growth. Do you expect DACH to return to growth for the full year? This is the first part.
Yes. Clearly, yes. I said it before, we believe that Q1 was just phasing and baseline effect as explained. So DACH should grow on a full year basis.
Similar question regarding the U.S.
Okay. Yes, absolutely. Also U.S. I see the question here, weaker growth that because there was something weak. No, please always consider there's baseline effects. Last year was a strong increase in the second half of the year. We are fully confident that U.S. is growing, and that was also implied in our guidance. You have seen us giving a very ambitious guidance for the North American market. So I think we should be good.
And two final quick questions for Tobias. You have managed to drive COGS improvement, which you said was due to negotiation of prices from suppliers. Is this something that might normalize higher in due course or will be ongoing?
Great question. And I think in previous calls, I've said since I started 18 months ago, we have been investing significantly in also our capabilities and capacities to set up better processes for us to scale efficiently here at tonies. This is a direct outcome of what we have achieved over the -- and the investments we've done over the last 18-plus months. So to answer your specific question, the purchase prices that we negotiated with our suppliers are here to stay, they're sustainable. And we expect them to obviously even go down further as we continue to grow and scale. So we continue with negotiations. We continue to work with our suppliers. We continue to obviously also work on the supplier footprint, as I had mentioned, and obviously, the diversity in our supply chain. Additionally, we have also negotiated inbound transportation logistic contracts with better pricing and another effect, obviously, that you see us investing in this function.
Here we go for the last question regarding the margin guidance for '25 is lower as you told guidance after the first quarter without tariffs. Is the difference the tariffs consumer confidence?
It's a combination. It's a combination of FX effects and partly not mitigatable tariff costs, where we chose not to pass on the cost with full effect. And now you might ask why if you just said that we have such a resilient pricing power, which we do have. But we are making very selective and very educated decisions on where and how we want to increase prices. And let's not forget, we are building an ecosystem. We are expanding boxes usually in the second half of the year around these commercial moments, specifically like Friday, Cyber Monday and then Christmas. And then this ever-increasing, ever-growing ecosystems of boxes will then be followed with subscription-like Tonies figurine sales that are obviously at a much, much higher margin profile than the boxes.
And this is why it here and there makes sense to invest and potentially not pass on fully any tariff cost. And then you can expect a much higher return in the years to come. That's a bit the idea behind it. So let me say it again. Consumer sentiment looks very healthy. We will now obviously see all this unfolding in H2. We will see a much higher box sale in H2 than we have seen in H1. That's a typical thing that will potentially be multiplied this year with extra effects that I've alluded to. And in the years to come, then all those additional boxes that we are selling all over the world will then have the Tonies figurine sales effect that we've seen also in the past.
Great. Thank you very much. This wraps up our Q&A session. Thanks for your fantastic interest and the great questions. And feel free to ask additional questions. We are all available afterwards. And for the wrap-up of the whole presentation, I hand over back to Tobias for his key takeaways of today's call.
Yes. Thank you. I agree, Peter. Thank you for the great questions and this really engaging discussion today. And as a good tradition here in our tonies' presentation, before we wrap up, I would like to briefly revisit the five key takeaways that have defined our first half in 2025 and that also set the stage for the remainder of the year.
So looking at our results in the first half of 2025, we performed in line with our expectations going into the year, but we even exceeded our expectations after April 2. We invested in our growth and still increased revenues considerably at profitable levels. Our international footprint grows by the hour. And that is not just about hitting numbers, it is a proof that our strategy is working, that our platform has incredible global product market fit, and that we are executing with discipline even in challenging times. At tonies, we deliver growth in any kind of environment. And a good reason for that lies in takeaway #2. Thanks to our uniquely resilient profile, we are seeing strong demand no matter the circumstance. We have a product that families continue to choose and love. Our brand resonates deeply, meets a genuine need and earns the trust of parents in their homes.
On tariffs, I can say with confidence that we have done our homework and we have the situation under control. The sourcing flexibility we have built over years, including the planned expansion to Vietnam is paying off. This is not just risk management, it's a strategic advantage that lets us grow with stability. Our guidance is a statement of confidence in our long-term growth story. On the foundation of a product which families love, it reflects our organizational ability to navigate challenges to capture opportunities and to keep scaling internationally while maintaining profitability even in times of macroeconomic headwinds.
And with Ginny, Hansjörg, Christoph on Board, we now have the leadership team anchored in both Germany and the U.S., uniting global experience, deep functional experience and expertise, and a shared commitment to driving tonies' next chapter of growth. We are proud of what the team has achieved. We are well prepared for the important second half and really very excited about what lies ahead.
Thank you all for your trust, for your continued interest and for joining us today. Until next time.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
tonies — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: €177 Mio. (+20% YoY, konstant Währungen)
- Margen: Adjusted EBITDA 2,1% (bereinigt), EBITDA-Marge 1,8%
- Einheiten: >9,5 Mio. Tonieboxen kumulativ; ~13 Mio. Tonies in H1; >125 Mio. Tonies kumulativ
- Cash: €39 Mio. Barmittel; €121 Mio. verfügbare Mittel inkl. Kreditlinien
- Regionen: DACH €71 Mio. (stabil), Nordamerika +28% cc, Rest-of-World +78% (€35 Mio.)
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Resilienz: Management betont robuste, wiederkehrende Nachfrage trotz April-Tarif-Schock; Geschäftsmodell habe sich bewährt.
- US-Expansion: Fokus auf Retail: Target-Shelfspace +50% (auf 12 ft), Walmart-Umplatzierung in Spielwaren, Amazon-D2C-Momente stärken Q4-Pipeline.
- Supply Chain: Diversifikation (Vietnam-Produktionsstart 1.4., >330k Boxen nach USA bis Juli) reduziert Tarifrisiko.
- Produkt & Content: Starke Launch-Pipeline (Book Tonies, Ms. Rachel u.v.m.), rund 65% der geplanten 2025-Launches noch ausstehend.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Umsatzziele: Full Year >25% YoY (cc) — Ziel >€600 Mio.
- Regional: Nordamerika >30% YoY (cc).
- Profitabilität: Adjusted EBITDA-Marge erwartet zwischen 6,5%–8,5%.
- Risiken: Tarife/FX und Investitionen erzeugen Spanne; Management sieht Tarife als beherrschbar, aber bleibt Unsicherheit.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Produktgerüchte: Management kommentiert keine Marktgerüchte (z. B. TB‑2/Launchdaten) bestätigt aber weiterhin „etwas Spannendes“ für H2.
- Margen-Spread: Differenz 6,5–8,5% wird mit verbliebenen Tarif-, FX- und Investitionsunsicherheiten erklärt; ohne Tarifstress wäre Spanne enger (9–11%).
- Unit-Phasing: Toniebox‑Rückgang in H1 wird mit Order‑Phasing erklärt; Unternehmen erwartet deutlich stärkere H2-Saisonalität.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Starkes H1 mit 20% Umsatzwachstum, positiver operativer Performance und klarer Guidance (>25% Umsatz, 6,5–8,5% EBITDA-Marge). Hauptrisiken bleiben Tarife, FX und saisonale Produktmix-Effekte; Management betont Supply‑Chain‑Resilienz, starke Retail‑Momentum und ausreichende Liquidität.
Finanzdaten von tonies
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Dez '25 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 630 630 |
31 %
31 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 233 233 |
29 %
29 %
37 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 397 397 |
32 %
32 %
63 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 137 137 |
33 %
33 %
22 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 48 48 |
44 %
44 %
8 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 20 20 |
1 %
1 %
3 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 28 28 |
119 %
119 %
4 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 13 13 |
0 %
0 %
2 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen EUR.
Nichts mehr verpassen! Wir senden Dir alle News zur tonies-Aktie direkt und kostenlos in Deine Mailbox.
Auf Wunsch erhältst Du jeden Morgen pünktlich zum Frühstück eine E-Mail, die alle für Dich relevanten Aktien-News enthält.
tonies Aktie News
Firmenprofil
tonies SE ist in der Herstellung von digitalen Unterhaltungsprodukten für Kinder tätig. Das Unternehmen bietet einen intelligenten, vernetzten Audioplayer, die Toniebox, an. Die Produkte des Unternehmens sind an der Schnittstelle von vier Verbrauchermärkten positioniert: Videospiele, traditionelles Spielzeug und Spiele, Connected Audio und Videostreaming. Das Unternehmen wurde 2013 von Patric Fassbender und Marcus Stahl gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Luxemburg.
aktien.guide Premium
| Hauptsitz | Luxemburg |
| CEO | Mr. Wann |
| Mitarbeiter | 634 |
| Gegründet | 2013 |
| Webseite | tonies.com |


