TransUnion Aktienkurs
Ist TransUnion eine Topscorer-Aktie nach der Dividenden-, High-Growth-Investing- oder Levermann-Strategie?
Als kostenloser aktien.guide Basis-Nutzer kannst Du die Scores zu allen 7.921 weltweiten Aktien einsehen.
aktien.guide Premium
aktien.guide Unlimited
Kennzahlen
📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 15,10 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 4,73 Mrd. $
Marktkapitalisierung = 15,10 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 5,17 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 19,97 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 4,73 Mrd. $
Enterprise Value = 19,97 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 5,17 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
TransUnion Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
26 Analysten haben eine TransUnion Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
26 Analysten haben eine TransUnion Prognose abgegeben:
Beta TransUnion Events
🇩🇪 Neu: Alle Transkripte jetzt auch auf Deutsch verfügbar!
Abonniere Premium, um Transkripte und KI-Zusammenfassungen auf Deutsch zu lesen.
Vergangene Events
|
JUN
3
46th Annual William Blair Growth Stock Conference
vor etwa einem Monat
|
|
JUN
2
2026 Baird Global Consumer
vor etwa einem Monat
|
|
MAI
27
Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference
vor etwa einem Monat
|
|
APR
28
Q1 2026 Earnings Call
vor 2 Monaten
|
|
MÄR
11
RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Institutions Conference 2026
vor 4 Monaten
|
|
MÄR
10
Analyst/Investor Day - TransUnion
vor 4 Monaten
|
|
FEB
12
Q4 2025 Earnings Call
vor 5 Monaten
|
|
NOV
18
J.P. Morgan 2025 Ultimate Services Investor Conference
vor 8 Monaten
|
|
NOV
11
Baird 55th Annual Global Industrial Conference
vor 8 Monaten
|
|
OKT
23
Q3 2025 Earnings Call
vor 8 Monaten
|
|
SEP
9
Barclays 23rd Annual Global Financial Services Conference
vor 10 Monaten
|
|
JUL
24
Q2 2025 Earnings Call
vor 11 Monaten
|
|
JUN
5
45th Annual William Blair Growth Stock Conference
vor etwa einem Jahr
|
aktien.guide Basis
TransUnion — 46th Annual William Blair Growth Stock Conference
1. Question Answer
All right. Thank you to everyone in the audience who's joined us today. My name is Andrew Nicholas, and I am the business services analyst here at William Blair. Before getting started, I am required to inform you that for a complete list of research disclosures or potential conflicts of interest, please visit our website at williamblair.com.
Very pleased to have TransUnion at the 46th Annual Growth Stock Conference. With me today is TransUnion's CFO, Todd Cello. We're going to spend the 30 minutes here just doing a brief Q&A, walking through the major drivers of the business, but we're going to try to do it at a relatively high level for those that aren't familiar.
So with that preamble finished, maybe start, Todd, with just a high-level overview of the business. What -- I think most people know you as a consumer credit bureau. Where are your businesses unique to maybe some of the other bureaus? Where are some key areas of competitive differentiation when you can kind of go from there?
Okay. It sounds like a good place to start. So thank you, Andrew. Thank you for having us. It's always a pleasure to be at this conference, great group of investors to meet with. So it's been a very productive morning. So talk a little bit about TransUnion and where perhaps we're different. I mean I guess I'll start with where we're the same. Everybody understands TransUnion's legacy being one of the 3 large credit reporting agencies in the U.S., but also globally.
We operate in 30-plus countries. Credit is the core of what we do, but what we've done over the last several years is we've developed out capabilities in fraud and marketing as well. Reason for that is TransUnion has been in fraud and marketing using credit data forever in essence.
So we see a significant opportunity to continue to expand our offerings in those markets. So we've been quite intentional in repositioning our portfolio over that period of time through mergers and acquisitions and different partnerships to be able to, in essence, build up the capabilities there.
We think about TransUnion just overall, primarily in the U.S., it makes about 80% of our business is in the U.S. Of that, to speak to the diversification I was just talking about, about 50% of the revenue in the U.S. is just pure credit, another 15% is consumer, which is also credit. So arguably, about 65% of the U.S. is credit. That other 35%, though is going to skew towards the marketing and the fraud revenues that I talked about.
And in the U.S., we go to market through vertical markets, financial services through lines of business like mortgage, auto, credit card, banking and consumer lending. Those are the core areas. We also have what we refer to as an emerging verticals segment. And in there, these are adjacencies in essence, where we're able to take the core credit, augment it with products and services like fraud and marketing to go after vertical markets like insurance, tech, retail, e-commerce, public sector, media, tenant and employment to name a couple of them there.
Outside the U.S., we have another 20% of our revenues come from our international business. There, we have some really nice pieces of our portfolio, in particular, in India. We operate the largest credit bureau in India. We were an initial shareholder of that business. We've consolidated it for about the last 12 years. It's about 25 years old. A really great part of our portfolio with a significant amount of runway going forward.
We recently closed on an acquisition in March of the largest credit bureau in Mexico. So now TransUnion has coverage across North America. We have a -- obviously, I talked about the U.S., but we also have a very meaningful business in Canada, but adding Mexico, similar to India, original shareholder on a minority basis, we were able to acquire a majority that we're really excited about the potential there. Our business has been growing double digits without our involvement. So we're very opportunistic that we're going to continue that and then add to the growth rate of the business.
Fantastic. Well, I appreciate that as a start. I think one of the things you've also been highlighting as a company over the past several years, including at your Investor Day earlier this year is the technology infrastructure and the tech platform that you've built OneTru. Can you spend some time kind of walking through what that platform is, what makes it unique? And maybe most importantly, what it unlocks for you as an organization?
Yes, for sure. That's a really important question because it's what underpins how we deliver our products and services to our customers.
So OneTru is the platform that TransUnion acquired through the Neustar acquisition in 2021. It was called OneID. We named it OneTru. So when we acquired Neustar, fraud and marketing came with the acquisition because that was one of their areas of expertise. So what we're doing now with OneTru is we're adding credit to it. So in essence, what that means is OneTru is going to house all of TransUnion's data assets. And that's significant because having all of our data in one place enables our developers to be able to work a lot more efficiently, also enables us to be able to deliver to our customers quicker as well.
All within a really good compliance structure, making certain that the data that we house together is being used appropriately, right? There's different regulatory requirements for credit data versus noncredit data. So that's kind of foundational to OneTru. It's really exciting about what we're doing from a technology perspective is historically, TransUnion has operated its businesses with physical data centers.
So when I talk about us operating in 30-plus countries, I think each one of those countries has a data center that we would maintain. So if we were to deploy intellectual property, new products and services, in essence, have to go to each one of those data centers and deploy it. So it's a little inefficient.
So underneath OneTru, what we're doing is we're using Cloud Services from AWS and Google Cloud Services so that's what -- that's the layer underneath OneTru. And why that's important is no longer will we need those physical data centers anymore. So if we put OneTru on top of that, in essence, we're able to quickly deploy our product innovation into market as well as TransUnion is entrusted with a lot of personal data as well to financial related. So with that, we want to make certain that our security posture is also able to be quickly deployed out. So we'll be able to do that.
So where we're at right now with OneTru is we are migrating U.S. credit, as I already said. So we expect by the end of this year that we will be complete with the tech migration. So the U.S. business will be fully on OneTru by the end of 2026. We're intentionally taking our time because it's customer impacting. Nothing is more important than making certain that our customers can transact with us in an efficient and obviously smooth way. So we're handling that with care. We'll get that done by the end of the year.
We've made really good progress to this point through May. Once we're done, our plans then are to move to Canada and the U.K., which are 2 of our larger developed markets, and then we'll also hit the Philippines in 2027 as well. At that point in time, we'll have about 90% of TransUnion's revenue on the OneTru platform. And then the game plan is every other geography that we operate in will also fall. And so it's really exciting when you think about having everything all in one environment.
And then really what it ends up being is that customization, that last mile delivery, so to speak, where in each market, things are going to be a little different maybe from a regulatory perspective. We'll still customize our products in those ways. But having so much of the data and the technology all in one place really is going to enable us and set us up for a significant amount of innovation. I think what I've been remiss in talking about throughout this point is this is an AI-enabled platform as well, too. So when you think about what is already in production with fraud and marketing, we're already using AI capabilities. Credit is going to benefit from that when we're there.
Great segue. So obviously, I have to cover this AI topic. It's a broad one, but maybe I'll start with the data itself. Can you just kind of hit home for everyone in the audience, the data moat that TransUnion has, the uniqueness of the sources, alternative data, how difficult it would be to replicate and just kind of outline that for everyone since it's top of mind in market right now?
So as a credit reporting agency, TransUnion receives credit data from tens of thousands of lenders across the world, right? And the value that TransUnion and our competitors play is that we have the ability to link and match that data to put together a comprehensive report on the consumer. But because of the sensitivity of the data that we are entrusted with, it's heavily regulated. In the U.S., it's called the Fair Credit Reporting Act. So there's certain obligations and use cases as to how that data can be used.
So I already talked about all the contributors to that data, right? So think of the scale there, like just the number of data contributors, we call them furnishers as well that enable us to make the file, but then you also have the regulatory framework itself, right? And what's so powerful about credit data is it's sourced independently, right? And so it's coming from the lenders and it's refreshed frequently. So we call the top of the credit report, we refer to that as the header. And in essence, what that means that's your name, it's your address, it's your phone number, date of birth, social security number, e-mail addresses, your phone number, indicative information about who the consumer is.
So we're able to leverage that data and it's permissible, we take that header data, and we're able to use that to build identity graphs. So what that means is to then take noncredit data and add it to the consumer profiles that we maintain. And that's really where the value comes for TransUnion, right, is that we are looking to best represent a consumer in the marketplace by fully showing who they are. And then why is that beneficial then for our customers is they're then able to transact with more confidence that they know who they're dealing with and what the potential risks are before they get into any type of potential engagement.
So off that credit file, TransUnion has proprietary data assets. And I'll just go through a couple of them. So think of what I talked about with the credit header as spine. I like to refer to it maybe as like the glue that holds everything together. Noncredit data then that we have, for example, one would be our short-term lending credit bureau data. So think of short-term lenders, payday lenders, not part of the traditional credit ecosystem, we're able to -- we bought a business several years ago that has that data. We're able to take that data and then append it to that spine that I was talking about.
Another example would be our Argus database. This is where we have a contributory database from credit card issuers where we have credit card transactions and deposit data. We're able to take that data also put it on the identity graph. From a fraud perspective, we have device-based fraud information. We have about 14 billion devices that we've built up through a consortium that we know if a device has been associated with fraud or not and what consumer that links to. So you put that on this identity graph.
And then another area is TransUnion is responsible for helping to run caller ID landline in the United States. So we get a tremendous amount of signal from phone calls as well, too. Those are good examples of the proprietary data that we have, but we're not done yet at that point. I'd like to say we have an insatiable appetite for data, right? It goes back to wanting to be able to represent the consumer more comprehensively, right?
So what we do then is we engage with third parties where we might have a need to build out that profile for the consumer, we'll engage with third parties who might have different data elements, and we buy that data. So we'll also append that to the identity graph as well, too. Now we're in market with the identity graph and you're using the capabilities that we have. By just simply using our products, we're also able to derive signal from it. So a good example of that would be if you think of its fraud mitigation, and we're able to help our customer identify a fraud instance, well, we're able to capture that information, and then we're able to use it within the identity graph and it makes it stronger.
So we refer to that as like a flywheel effect that we have. Marketing is another example of that, right, where we help our customers build audiences to tailor their marketing campaigns to those offers that they send out if the consumer engages and corroborates that they want their data can be used, we're able to bring that information in. So the whole flywheel effect is incredibly powerful.
Very helpful. Obviously, with proprietary data as kind of the anchor, one of our kind of thesis for the space or the information services sector as a whole has been that AI will benefit the sector through increased supply or product innovation, demand generation and operational efficiency. So I just kind of want to hit those 3 things. You've alluded to some of them, but just on the supply side, are there specific things that AI is enabling in term or OneTru from a new product innovation perspective that you'd call out, new products that maybe weren't able to be facilitated before that or at least now easier to do on a quicker time line?
Yes, for sure. So let me go through, and I'll address that question through credit marketing and fraud, but you asked me a couple of other questions you get back. That's a big question to ask me. So if we just focus on the innovation and how we're using AI today, let me answer it in the 3 categories that I've talked about with credit marketing and fraud.
So from a credit perspective, a great example today is what we call our TruIQ analytics orchestrator. And in essence, what TruIQ is think of it as an analytics sandbox. It's where our customers come to build their models to understand different risk scenarios and if they would engage and how they would engage with a particular consumer. So what we've done with this new capability is we've been able to partner with Google Gemini to use some of their models in essence, to enable our customers to use -- to speak basically to do the work on the analytics that I was talking about.
Historically, what TransUnion has done is we've hosted innovation labs where we've brought our customers to the office, and we do the analytic work with them. What this capability does is it puts more autonomy back in the customer. Of course, we want to work with our customers. We want to be side-by-side with them, but it's a lot more efficient if they're able to do some of the work themselves.
So that's been a significant change for us that we feel is going to drive some incremental revenues going forward. From a marketing perspective, in marketing, a lot of what we've done from audience generation in the past has been good data on audiences, but static, maybe not as fresh. So what we're able to do now with OneTru is because of how fast that the platform operates is we're providing more real-time, fresher data to build those audiences.
And then the final area would be in fraud. And in fraud, what we've seen there is that just by leveraging our OneTru platform, the turn times and building scores is 2x to 3x faster. And it's just as an example, last year, we built 10 new scores, and that would have taken a significant amount of time. And we were able to do that in a short period of time last year. And you made reference to our Investor Day earlier, I mean we highlighted a credit washing score or capability, I should say, at the Investor Day. And in an essence, that's where consumers are trying to manipulate their credit file. They're trying to almost move faster than TransUnion can move. So we're able to use AI capabilities to detect that and to make sure that, that doesn't -- that doesn't happen.
Those are good examples [indiscernible] applied demand. I think one of the things that was super interesting at the Investor Day was just kind of how you talked about how your clients are interacting differently with you in this new paradigm. So can you flesh that out?
Yes, for sure. So from a demand perspective, what we see is from customers that are more sophisticated early on in using AI capabilities, they're more frequent users of our data. So in particular, again, I've been talking a lot about analytics and scoring. But typically, our customers would refresh their own scores or their analytics maybe once a year, maybe 2 or 3 years, right, because it was an arduous process. What we're seeing now is customers that have AI capabilities, they're requesting more of our data so they can refresh their models to the point where we've seen some even get them monthly. So think about from what was years to they're able to do it monthly.
So what that means is they're ingesting more of our data more frequently so they can continuously calibrate. So those are -- typically, they're more sophisticated. They're larger customers under multiyear type of agreements. They got volumetric pricing with us. So we do see incremental revenues, but it's not prohibitive. So that's why that's an important point to make there. So that's been a positive.
And the second area as well, too, is these same customers that are more sophisticated with AI capabilities, they want to ingest more of our products and services. So they want to ingest more of our marketing and more of our trusted call solutions, just as 2 examples. And what's kind of fascinating to me about that, where the bottlenecks is at, it's really more on the customer side. It's not our ability to give it to them. They can take it, but where there's a little bit of a pause is their validation of these products. So for them to go back and test and make certain that it's something that will be beneficial to their decisioning criteria. So that's encouraging, right, because they can take the product innovation, but it's that testing piece that they're going to check.
Efficiency benefits. So it just seems like the data and information services space would be really well positioned to benefit from this technology from an operating efficiency perspective. So maybe you could highlight kind of what you're seeing on that front, what the opportunity looks like, where you are finding savings, if any, and we can go from there?
There's 2 really good examples of how we're being able to leverage AI internally. So I already talked about the OneTru platform being AI-enabled. But when you think about our developers, people that are working with OneTru every day to build our products and services, they're software coding. And we've built something called OneTru Assist, which in essence, enables our developers to be able to speed code and code cleanup. So what we've seen there is about a 20% productivity gain.
So before anyone asks like when is that going to show up in adjusted EBITDA margin, we're being intentional because that's increased capacity for us. So we're able to point that excess capacity towards product innovation. So we're really encouraged about that opportunity. The second area that we've seen some meaningful traction is how we handle consumer disputes. So if I go back to your second question about credit bureau and being regulated, one of those criteria is that if a consumer thinks that they have an inaccuracy in the credit report, as a credit reporting agency, you are required to answer that consumer's call and investigate and come to a resolution within a set number of days.
So as you can imagine, we have a high volume of disputes that come in on consumers' credit files. But also, as you could probably imagine, there's a lot of commonalities and requests that do come in. So we're able to use AI capabilities to be able to find those similarities and to build a better workflow to most efficiently handle the consumers when they come in.
We want them to have a good experience when they come in and deal with us, right? So if there's that much commonality and there's repetition, we now know, oh, we've seen that before. And AI is helping us do that. So that's a positive from an engagement and a relationship with the consumer, plus there's productivity gains because we're not necessarily having to answer the phone, right? We might be able to do that in a digital kind of frictionless manner for the consumer.
All right. Great. We have maybe 5 minutes left. I think we've hit a lot of the major points on the AI topic. Maybe we can switch gears to just the current environment. What are you seeing in terms of the health of the consumer? I think you described April to date activity on your earnings call as being at or ahead of expectations. What are you seeing now? How would you describe the overall market environment in the U.S. in particular?
Yes. So high level, what we're seeing is a continuation of the trends that we talked about on our April earnings call. So if I look at where we're at through the middle of May, we are trending towards the high end of our guidance, if not being ahead, which is what we messaged, right? We said that if trends persisted, we oriented the market to that level. So we're -- that's what we're seeing to this point. That's where we're at.
So what underpins that in the U.S. is a generally resilient consumer. So a big driver for TransUnion is employment. And if consumers are employed, obviously, they can live up to their financial obligations, but they also can aspire to a higher quality of life as well, too, such as maybe buying a house or buying a car or paying for college education, things that you may need loans for.
We really haven't seen much of a deterioration there. But a common question we get and what we recently put something out in our newsroom is about this this K-shaped economy that we're operating in. And that is prevalent, right? I mean we definitely see that happening. Consumers that are on the lower -- the part of the K that's pointing down are definitely impacted by higher energy costs, higher inflation. We've seen their delinquencies tick up a little bit, still within historical ranges, but not ideal where it should be. So that's all in the market.
But what our research has shown us, and our research is leveraging our core credit reporting database, right? So it's a phenomenal place to look. is that we're seeing that in prime, near prime, prime and super prime, we're actually seeing the proportion change in that there's more consumers compared to 4 years ago in those categories. And that subprime space is kind of held flat.
So what that means is we're seeing consumers actually in aggregate, actually getting better, but there still are the consumers on the lower part of the K that are definitely being impacted. So the way we're thinking about it is you kind of net those together and that's the resiliency. And then that's also the employment that I talked about that's there as well, too. And across our businesses, the core lending businesses, mortgage continues to be incredibly low. I mean we're still talking about volume levels we haven't seen since the mid-'90s, right? Before the conflict with Iran, we saw the 30-year mortgage go below -- around 6% or below, and we saw a significant increase in our volumes. And then unfortunately, that was short-lived and it went up.
So the reason I bring that up is if we're talking about volumes from the '90s and you think about population growth in the U.S., right, there's -- if interest rates get much higher in mortgage, there's really not going to be that much of an impact to us. But a 50 basis point reduction in interest rates, let's just say we get back to 6% or below and that it's going to unlock a significant amount in mortgage, in particular, like we can see, again, looking at our credit file that there's 10 million mortgages that have an interest rate of 6% or above.
So that just speaks to the refinance opportunity that's out there. Markets like auto kind of tepid right now, right? Home -- I'm sorry, new car sales and used car sales are kind of flattish, right? And the average life of the used car is 7 or 8 years right now. So that -- I would look at that as under trend as well, too. So there should be some upside coming from mortgage and auto in a more normalized environment.
Our card and banking business has been resilient, low to mid-single-digit grower. I still think that, that's a little bit below trend. And then probably the strongest part of our core lending has been in consumer lending, home to our fintech customers. They're healthy. They've got funding. Delinquencies are manageable and the personal loan has become more of a mainstream product. So they're selling to more in the subprime product consumer.
Sure. We have 8 seconds. I don't know that we can finish this whole question in that second, but I'm going to try to squeeze some. Is there any major distinction between what you just described in the U.S. versus what you're seeing internationally or any kind of major changes? Obviously, conflict in the Middle East might have a very specific impact in those regions, but...
Conflict in the Middle East, we're watching closely India and the Philippines because of the Strait of Hormuz a source of where energy comes from, not a material impact at this point in time. Otherwise, the other geographies that we operate in, it's more dealing with the higher energy price and inflation. So think about the U.K. and Canada. But again, what we're seeing is through May, I'd orient you to the high end of the guide right now.
Great. Thanks a lot.
Thank you.
Thanks, everyone.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
TransUnion — 46th Annual William Blair Growth Stock Conference
TransUnion — 2026 Baird Global Consumer
1. Question Answer
All right. I'm Jeff Meuler, Baird's Information Solutions Analyst. Pleased to introduce TransUnion, which is one of the big 3 global consumer credit bureaus and a broader information solution company anchored by a proprietary consumer identity graph that powers credit, ID and fraud, marketing and consumer solutions. I'm joined on stage by TransUnion's CFO, Todd Cello. Also at the conference, the IR team, Greg and Jason in the audience.
Maybe to start, Todd, you had an Investor Day this March. I want to unpack some of the messages. From a company description perspective, I just gave a bit of it, but there's a concept of a 360-degree view of a consumer with multiple different use cases and a common identity graph. I think there's still some investors that think of you as credit bureau first.
So just help us understand like how broad the data that you know about a consumer is and how you tie it all together, what's hard about that so investors can start to think through implications in an AI world.
Sounds good. I think it's an appropriate place to start. Thank you for having us. This is always a great conference. to be at. So for TransUnion, data is the differentiator for us. And those are the competitive advantages that, in essence, we have to enable our customers to what Jeff just said, to assess credit, but also to tailor marketing campaigns and to help mitigate fraud.
So it all starts with our heritage of being a credit reporting agency. And if you think about the data that TransUnion is entrusted with, in essence, on the credit report, you have indicative information about the consumer such as name, address, social security number, date of birth, e-mail. And in essence, what that data does is it provides a spine for our identity graph.
And if you think about the sourcing of that data, right, it's difficult to get to. We're only 1 of 3 companies in the United States that gets this data. And the expertise we have is we link and match, and we're able to put a consumer profile together.
With that identity spine, then what we're able to do is append our other data assets that we have. So good examples of that would be data that we have on short-term lending as one example. We made an acquisition of a business called FactorTrust several years ago that gives us those short-term lender trade lines.
Another area is Argus. Again, another acquisition we made many -- several years ago, where we have transaction-level data on credit and deposit information on the consumer. We also have data pertaining to device-based fraud that we're able to append on this identity graph. And then on top of that, we manage caller ID for the U.S. So all that phone signal information we have.
So the expertise then is how do you pull all that together, put it on an identity graph. And it's not that this is necessarily something that's easy to do as well, right? Because if you just -- yes, those are proprietary assets that we have. But it's the linking and the matching that we do to know that it's Jeff Meuler to put that identity graph together. So that's an area where we differentiate ourselves.
Then what we do is we also have relationships with thousands of other data providers that we augment our proprietary data with. So lots of different relationships where, again, we're taking fragmented and maybe not consistent data, pulling it together. We like to say we have this insatiable appetite for data.
The more and more information that we can have on a consumer, the better we're going to be able to represent that consumer in the marketplace and the better that our customers are going to be able to transact with confidence with those consumers.
So that's something, too, when you think about just the years of us with those third-party relationships, like I call that -- think of that as like the network effect, right? So now you've built from our proprietary to the third parties. And then when our products and services are actually used, we get signal from that.
So for an example, for -- in fraud mitigation, we're helping our customers mitigate. But if we come across something that's fraud, we're able to capture that. So now you've got this flywheel effect that's happening.
Marketing is another good example of that. When we are helping our customers build their audiences and there's collaboration with the consumer, we're able to know that information, and we're able to append that to the identity graph. But the identity graph is only as good as being as fresh as possible. So we're constantly updating the graph itself.
Got it. And I think a lot of investors have gotten more comfortable with AI risks on the credit bureau. Maybe anything else that you can say about the fraud and identity or marketing businesses in terms of why they're AI resilient?
And I thought there was an interesting announcement from you, a partnership with Google for YouTube, a multi-touch attribution. A lot of investors probably say, "Hey, doesn't Google have a lot of data natively that AI can make sense of?" So maybe that would be a good illustrative example of something that you do that investors may not inherently think of.
Okay. So let's start with marketing and fraud. So first of all, the markets themselves, there's not necessarily a clear leader in the space, highly fragmented competition, but we are a scaled provider. And how we go about doing that is through identity.
So I just talked through our -- how we manage identity and are able to represent the consumer in the marketplace. So as a result of that, what we're able to do is help our customers better tailor their marketing campaigns, build their audiences, know the performance. So in marketing, what we're doing is we're doing identity, we're building audiences. And then we are measuring.
So to the second part of your question, we're really excited to announce the partnership recently with YouTube, where, in essence, they are using our multi-touch attribution capabilities for measurement purposes. And in essence, what they're doing is they've come to TransUnion to say, "Help us understand how advertisers are performing on our platform."
And that's powerful for them because they want to know if you've seen a video on YouTube and you saw an advertisement, what did you do with that advertisement? Did you convert? Did you go and buy something there?
So the position that TransUnion is in is very unique because we represent the top -- think of the Fortune 100 in brands. So we have those relationships, and that's where the value we add to Google or a YouTube is we bring those relationships -- and we're also a neutral party as well, too. We're not placing ads, we're just helping to measure.
So a good example -- another good example of that is we have a similar relationship with Meta. So the walled garden see value in using these capabilities. And these can be contracts that are 7 digits for TransUnion.
I think a lot of investors broadly in the market have placed information solutions companies in the AI loser or AI at-risk buckets. And I think a lot of the management teams are sitting there seeing a lot of opportunity from AI.
One of the anecdotes that you've given is the most AI-enabled or most AI-resourced customers consume more TransUnion data. Can you provide more detail on that? And is it frequency of data? Just is it additional use cases? Help us understand what that means.
Yes. No, it's a great question. So the more sophisticated customers that we have, they want more and more of our data. So probably the best example is just models themselves, the risk models. Historically, lenders would update their risk models maybe on an annual basis, maybe every 2 or 3 years.
What we're seeing is customers that have adopted AI into their workflows, they've been able to refresh those models a lot more frequently. We've seen examples of monthly now. So in essence, where because they can take our data, they're refreshing. So what's that to? Fresher data, kind of like how I was talking about the identity graph, right? We have to keep it fresh.
Fresher data helps them mitigate risk. So they're constantly updating their scoring models. That's specific to credit that I'm talking about, but these models are also being updated in fraud and marketing as well, too. There's models that are built there. So overall, that's one big way that we're seeing a benefit. And we highlighted some of this in our first quarter earnings materials as well.
The second important area of AI-enabled customers, they're going to be more receptive to taking more of our product innovation. So whether that's scores or attributes or products like I talked about already in marketing with our audience generation or fraud mitigation or trusted call solutions as another example, they're going to be able to take more and more of that data.
And what's kind of interesting there is the biggest bottleneck actually is more on the customer side, not on our side because before they'll take all this data, they need to pause to test it and make certain that it's working appropriately.
So is that because of regulatory reasons? Or what is the reason for that?
Yes. So that's one of the main reasons that we differentiate -- one of the main areas that we would differentiate ourselves in is just the rigor that TransUnion operates in as far as being a regulated entity under the Fair Credit Reporting Act, it's in our DNA. We take being in compliance very seriously.
And we've rolled that out to all of our other -- all the other products. When I talk about marketing and fraud, we bring that same posture. So from a customer's perspective, they value that deeply because they see how we treat the data and how we're able to then use it appropriately in the marketplace.
And you're on the tail end of a multiyear tech transformation and you have a modern data management platform, OneTru. It seems like that should align well for the AI era. But how is OneTru impacting your go-to-market or partnerships or monetization potential? I know you've given anecdotes on Snowflake and Snowflake seeing increased utilization lately.
Yes. So I'll start -- let me start the answer to that more on the partnership because you alluded to Snowflake. Snowflake and [ Databricks ] are two larger relationships that we have. And what's powerful about those partnerships is that we are able to meet our customer where they're at.
So if their data is in Snowflake or if it's in [ Databricks ], we're able to use -- bring our identity product to that environment to help them be able to, in essence, resolve identities and to better market or mitigate fraud. So that's a really powerful capability that we have.
In addition, OneTru has brought us pretty significant cost savings. We had a transformation program that we announced back in 2023, we generated $130 million of cost savings as well as on an ongoing basis, we're bringing our capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue down from 8% to 6%.
And the One True platform enabled all of that because in essence, what we're doing is as opposed to managing disparate data centers all across the world, what OneTru is enabling us to do is to put all of those products and services on a common platform, and we're able to leverage that across the world. So needless to say, that then drives product innovation.
So at our Investor Day in March of this year, we highlighted that in 2026, we're introducing 30 new products, 40 product enhancements that are going to generate $500 million of revenue over the next 3 years. So that speaks to the monetization part of your question and that we're able to see some pretty significant growth from that.
So your financials have been good, good compounding growth, no evidence, I think, from the outside of AI disruption, lots of good anecdotes. You kind of just gave us some revenue that could accrue over the next 3 years.
Just -- I know this is a guess, but how do you think from the outside in your financials, we're going to -- like when do you think we're going to start to see some of the benefits from AI more tangibly from the outside to your business?
I think as I've already walked through, right, the OneTru platform is AI-enabled. So I'd make the argument that we are starting to see that, right? And our expectation, as far as the growth algorithm that we put out again back in our Investor Day in March, is for high single-digit growth over that period of time. But what's important is that guide does not include any upside from AI capability.
So I give you -- we talked already about the identity graph and products in marketing and fraud that we feel very confident that we're going to benefit from. We look at that as all upside to the medium-term guide that we provided. So we've been performing, I think, pretty well over the last couple of years with high single-digit growth, underlying margins growing at least 50 basis points.
And that's kind of kind of an okay type of macro environment that we've been able to post those results. So we've been busy innovating and driving AI into our products and services. So the expectation is that if the market holds the way that it is and we continue to execute, the AI products and services are going to be upside to that number.
If the market holds, I'm not going to lie. When I saw TransUnion announce an Investor Day, I got a little cautious. Correlation doesn't mean causation. But 2019, you had an Investor Day within a year, we had COVID. 2022, the next day, the Fed is raising rates. Right on cue for March, we have an Iranian conflict.
You said that Q1 results were good, you said volumes were holding up into mid-April. Can you just give us any update on -- with gas prices where they are, with any other macro factors, are things still holding up in your business?
Well, thank you for the sobering update on our timing on Investor Day. For sure, it's been challenging in that regard. What I would say is what we talked about in our April earnings call, really strong quarter. But with the conflict in Iran, we felt it was the prudent thing to do was to not raise for a pretty meaningful beat that we had in the quarter just as we navigated a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace.
So what I can tell you is through the middle of May right now, the volumes that we talked about on the earnings call at the end of April, have continued at that same level. So consistent with what we said on the earnings call, the expectation would be if that continues for the rest of the quarter that we should be at the high end of our guidance or above. So that's where we're at right now.
And then you talked about 50 basis points of underlying margin expansion, which is good. But you're using the phrase underlying, and I think investors are kind of pushing back on your margin trajectory for a couple of years, and it felt like you were approaching an inflection with tech transformation and other things. So just help us understand what you mean by underlying and maybe talk through what type of margin trajectory you're on.
Yes. That's an important point to clarify for those of you who aren't familiar with TransUnion. The way that you probably are aware that FICO, a partner of TransUnion and its scoring, increased pricing for mortgage quite significantly at the end of 2025 for pricing in effect in 2026. We treat that product from FICO as a pass-through. So what they charge, we pass that through to our customers.
So if you think about it from a margin perspective, there's revenue and then there's an equal amount of cost. And FICO over the last several years, has been more aggressive with their pricing. So what's happened then is our margins, if you look at them in aggregate, because of the dynamic I just talked about; the margins were kind of flattish. And what in essence that was doing is it was masking a lot of the really good work that we've done from an operational perspective.
And I talked about this already with the transformation program and the cost savings that we've been able to achieve. So we are now -- we report our adjusted EBITDA margin as reported with the FICO royalty in there, but we are also showing excluding that. So excluding it from the revenue and excluding it from the expense, so investors can see the underlying margin of the business on the things that are more controllable.
And just to expand a little bit more, FICO, it's predominantly in mortgage, right, that they have -- that there's this pricing power that they're able to leverage. So that's what we're adjusting for is FICO Mortgage.
So your mortgage revenue grew 24%, excluding FICO royalties in Q1 with inquiries plus 7%? What all goes into that delta? And then maybe more importantly, what do you expect for go-forward mortgage pricing on the credit file post 2026?
Yes. So we -- obviously, a tremendous amount of value on data. And when I talked about the identity graph earlier, hopefully, you have an appreciation for the power of the data. And I've talked about scores as well, too. Scores don't work without the data, right? So we maintain the data. So we have an appropriate price to reflect the value that we bring to our customers for the data. And then specific to mortgage on an ongoing basis going forward, I would expect us to have a CPI-like price increase for mortgage.
And how do you think about the pricing on VantageScore in mortgage? You came out with an intended price. You cut the price earlier this year around Investor Day. What's the go-forward opportunity, including if FICO continues to take aggressive mortgage pricing? And anything you want to say about what you're seeing on the initial rollout of VantageScore in terms of uptake or what the market is doing or how it's using VantageScore?
Yes. So the FHFA, who regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, in essence, have enabled VantageScore to be used where over the -- in the underwriting of a mortgage. So I think over the last 30-plus years, Fannie and Freddie were only buying mortgages in the secondary market if a FICO classic score was part of the transaction.
So in essence, there was almost -- there was a monopoly situation there. So the FHFA acknowledged that and have enabled competition in the space. VantageScore has existed, I think, since 2006. It's a collaborative effort between TransUnion Equifax and Experian. It's used quite extensively in other areas of the market outside of mortgage. You'll see it, as an example, on our direct-to-consumer platform. That's the score that we leverage and some leading credit card issuers also use it as well, too.
So we're looking at the opportunity now that there's competition in the market. So what we did on -- right before our Investor Day is we lowered the price for VantageScore to $0.99, and that compares to $10.95 for the FICO score. And what we're trying to do is to just drive awareness and ultimately, adoption of the score.
And to this point, we've seen a lot of receptivity from lenders. Just in the last couple of weeks, Rocket Mortgage said that they'll be using VantageScore. United Wholesale Mortgage also has indicated that they'll be using it. So there seems to be some good movement.
But with that being said, this is going to take some time. to do. It's not something that's going to just simply flip over because as I already said, we're looking at like 3 decades of a process being a certain way. So our expectation is that the market is going to take some time to assess. And as a result of that, we didn't put in our guidance this year any type of VantageScore adoption for that reason.
Got it. Maybe just to move to U.S. markets. I think investors sometimes have a perception about TransUnion being more cyclical than it is or the stock trades higher beta. In your consumer lending business or you're very strong in fintechs, it's been growing kind of that like a teens to 20% range recently. Just how cyclical do you think it is? And maybe go into some of the structural growth factors that are contributing to that growth?
Yes. So in consumer lending, I mean, primarily, it's relationships that we have with fintechs. And just personal lending itself has become more of a mainstream product. What started off initially as a subprime targeted type product. Now you're seeing that mainstream. I get offers for it all the time when I sign into my credit card issuers, unsecured personal loans, it's very prevalent in the marketplace.
So with it being more mainstream, in essence, what we're then able to do now is we're able to sell more products and services to the consumer lenders. So as opposed to just selling credit and scores, we're also bringing a lot of our product innovation. So marketing, trusted call solutions, a couple of good examples that we're able to sell in there. So where there could be some cyclicality in the business, we look to offset that by selling those products and services.
But overall, it's a strong grower in our portfolio. It grew over 20% in the fourth quarter. It grew 13% in the first quarter. We have a unique position, but we're not overexposed to it either, right? It's like -- it's about $145 million worth of revenue for us on a $5 billion plus Peak was about $175 million back in 2022. So we still see some good upward trajectory in this space.
And then outside of financial markets in the U.S., you have an emerging vertical segment that does about $1.3 billion of revenue. It was growing 3% to 4% in '23 and '24. It accelerated in '25. What are the biggest factors going into its acceleration? Or how sustainable is the recently faster growth?
Yes. So one of the bigger drivers within the emerging verticals is our insurance vertical, and this is where we're servicing property and casualty insurers, but a whole host of other insurers as well. In 2022 and '23 with high inflation, many of these insurers pulled back in underwriting. And as a result of that, their marketing activity also pulled back.
What we've seen over the last couple of years is the insurance business snapped back quite nicely as the insurers have gotten rate adequacy. They've come back to market and marketing is almost fully recovered in the insurance space. So that's a big driver. That's about 30% of the overall revenues within the emerging verticals of about $1.3 billion.
Once you get out of insurance, the remaining verticals, we call them that diversified market. So we serve just that, right, diversified. So think of like retail, e-commerce, media as an example. And where we're seeing the growth rates there tick up especially is the fraud and the marketing products that I spoke about earlier, that's where the growth has been coming from.
In the first quarter, we saw about 6% growth in the emerging verticals. What I would tell you is that the bookings and the retention that we've seen with those customers in the diversified markets, it's actually been very strong. So we expect that those growth rates are going to accelerate as the year goes on.
We only have a minute. International is a big part of your business that's not growing at its typical growth rates. There's lots of things going on there, India, Mexico. I guess, what are you most excited for in International over the next several years? Or what are the key pieces to getting it back to its typical growth rate contribution to TransUnion?
I think we're -- the portfolio in International is amazing. I mean we're -- we continue to be super excited about the potential in India. Took a step back, regulator cooled the market down. I could tell you there is in May, volumes that we've seen in India would suggest that we are on that path to mid-single-digit revenue as we've guided. So we're really excited about that.
And there's just huge runway. We made an acquisition of credit bureau in Mexico that we were an initial shareholder on going back 30 years ago. We were the technology partner. We finished that acquisition in March similar type of dynamics in India as well where we can bring our growth playbook and drive some meaningful shareholder returns.
Excellent. And we will wrap there since we're out of time. So thank you for your insights on TransUnion. The TransUnion team will be available for a breakout session now in [ Astra Sweep One ]. The next presenting companies at the conference in this room, Cheesecake Factory, also at this time, RB Global, APi Group, BlackBerry Limited.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
TransUnion — 2026 Baird Global Consumer
TransUnion — Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference
1. Question Answer
Good morning, and welcome, everyone. Thanks for joining us at our 42nd Strategic Decisions Conference. My name is Kelsey Zhu, I'm the information services analyst at Autonomous. With me on stage today, I'm very pleased to welcome Chris Cartwright, the President and CEO of TransUnion.
Thank you. Good to be here.
Thanks so much for joining us again.
Always a pleasure.
So Chris, I know we have a lot to talk about today. There's macro, there's consumer, there's AI, there's the whole credit score transition topics that I want to pick your brain on. But I think a good place to start is you obviously had 9 consecutive quarters of delivering organic revenue growth of high single digit and above. In the last quarter, your growth actually accelerated to 11%. So this is definitely outperforming the type of credit volume trends we've seen in the market. Could you maybe just tell us a little bit more about what's structurally different in TransUnion's portfolio today that's driving all the strong performance?
Okay. Just a bit about TransUnion because I know there are some generalists in the audience that I want to level set before I answer your very good question.
So we're one of the 3 large global credit reporting and consumer information companies, if you will. We operate in 30 countries around the world. Roughly 80% of the revenue comes out of the U.S., where our business is a mix, like half credit and then half the combination of marketing, fraud mitigation, public records and communications solutions.
We have been undergoing a transformation in the past 4 years along 2 key dimensions. The first, through a series of acquisitions that we made in late '21, early '22, we significantly expanded our product capabilities. So obviously, we're steeped in credit and credit analytics tradition. But now we're also very good at digital marketing enablement and online and phone-based fraud mitigation. And all these services are unified now on a common technology platform called OneTru, and it's really that technology innovation and standardization.
That's the second leg of our transformation. And it's going to allow us to change our operating model from one where we have independent technology stacks across these 30 countries that are essentially doing very similar things for the same industries, for the same customers with common information to a global configurable platform, which is 2 things for us. One, any country or as we migrate countries to that platform, suddenly, all the services that it enables become available, many for the first time in those countries. So we're launching new growth path, if you will. But secondly, we're getting cost scale because we won't be doing the same things redundantly around the world, which is really just a function of being a 50-year-old business that expanded country by country, one bank consortium at a time.
Now you mentioned that we've been growing well and our growth is accelerating and it's above market volumes. And that's all true. And I'd say it's a function really of a couple of things. One, really, since we became a public company in the summer of 2015, with only a couple of exceptions, this business has been able to grow high single to low double digit organically. The only exceptions to that would be 2020, the COVID year, followed by 13% growth in a full recovery, which took us to kind of peak lending volumes in the super low interest rate environment, the ZIRP environment, as you folks call it, before inflation spiked dramatically in Q2 of '22. And then we had an aggressive Fed response, 500 bps of rate escalation, which put consumer lending volumes in a recession for the next 6 quarters, if you will. And during that period, we grew 3%. In '24 and '25, we accelerated again to 7% and 8% organic growth ex FICO. And this year, we're trending hopefully as good or better. We'll get to some of that update later.
So the point of taking you through that brief history is to say that this is a growthful market. And the data that we're providing and the analytics we're providing is dimensional and growthful and can sustain that level of growth independent of the second reason that we're growing to the top of the market is we now have a lot more things to sell the market segments that we serve, whether that's our financial services market in the U.S. or a range of what we call emerging markets like telecom or technology, retail, e-commerce, the media segment, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. There are over 20 different market segments that we organize ourselves around in the U.S. And now we can sell them credit, marketing, fraud, identity verification and resolution, direct-to-consumer credit enablement, investigative solutions, a whole range of different products. So it's a function of growthful markets, product diversification, solid tech execution.
That's a really helpful summary. Thanks so much for that, Chris. I guess a good place for us to start diving into some of the macro consumer debates. It's really just -- I feel like we've been having conversation around the K-shaped economy for a while now. So what's the latest in terms of the health of U.S. consumers and specifically for subprime categories? Could you just give us a quick update what you're seeing in the market?
For sure. Happy to. So the K-shaped economy is real. The middle is transitioning. However, it's not necessarily a negative story or nearly as negative as is often portrayed. We recently just produced some analysis that shows that the primary driver of this K-shape is that folks in the middle of the credit spectrum are migrating upward and becoming near prime, prime and super prime. And it's less that they're deteriorating and ending up in the subprime. So the percentage growth at the bottom of the K, people transitioning from the middle to the subprime is materially less than the percentage growth of consumers whose credit is improving, and they're getting structurally more stable. Now look, it's a different question about whether that kind of divergence between lower income, higher-risk borrowers in the latter is good or bad. But I think oftentimes, there's the sentiment that it's all negative and consumers are moving from the middle to subprime, which, in fact, they're not.
Now over the past quarters, we've looked hard at the performance of recent loan originations within the subprime space. And their vintage curves, their performance curves are very consistent with the prior year. There's been no concerning increase in loan delinquencies. There's been some modest tick up, but you would expect that given that lenders expanded their loan boxes and made more loans into the subprime space last year than they did previously as their confidence in that segment increased and continues to this day. And lenders are managing their risk. In large part, they are taking on more customers in the subprime space. They're making a higher volume of loans, but they're also making a lot of small dollar bets to determine the consumer's ability to service the debt over time and to mitigate their own risk. So we don't see any red flags. We don't see any concerns with the performance of loan portfolios among subprime borrowers at this point.
So consumers are relatively healthy still. We're still in this benign credit card...
I mean, look, I -- yes, I definitely understand the macroeconomic concerns, right? There's an enormous number of uncertainties, which we'll discuss. But consumers are still highly employed, and there are still some real wage gains above inflation. Now of course, inflation may spike. We don't know. That's a big part of the uncertainty and anxiety. But through April and through May, when I look at the performance of our business, our portfolio throughout the U.S., it's completely consistent with how we've been guiding investors year-to-date from the initial guide for the full year to the first quarter earnings results, we're very much on track to deliver what we guided to.
Got it. And you mentioned that some of the lenders are expanding the credit box a little bit. I was wondering if you can talk a little bit more about consumer credit origination volume trends that you're seeing across different products, but also just the environment we're in right now. I don't know if it's correct to call it like higher for longer or hold for longer. Are lenders still expanding that credit box? Or how are you thinking about the impact of higher for longer on your portfolio?
Sure. Well, look, as I mentioned, and as you know, we outperformed our guidance, the high end of our guidance substantially in the first quarter. And because we saw these uncertainties building and we wanted to be very confident with investors that we could deliver the full year guide, we chose to bank the overperformance and increase our contingencies, if you will. And those contingencies were already adequate because we started the year by issuing what we call a prudently conservative guide. And we were also very clear in the first quarter earnings that if market volumes across these lending categories held, we would expect to overperform the high end of the guide to some degree. And we don't see any changes in the lending volume across card, auto, consumer lending, even the fintech component and mortgage that would prevent us from doing so really through the middle of May. So I mean we're feeling pretty good about that.
Now of course, there have been any number of macro uncertainties in the recent year or 18 months. There have been concerns about the inflationary impact of tariffs, obviously, that didn't nearly manifest itself to the degree that some had thought. Concerned about increased levels of deficit spending that proved to be pretty manageable and inflation was down to the high 2s, maybe 3 level. But then, of course, the conflict in Iran and the lack of oil flowing through the Strait and all of that is a whole another different contributor, and we just have to see how that is going to manifest itself. But I guess the point is sitting here in late May, it has not manifested itself negatively in our business volumes to any degree.
Got it. So stable volume trends is what we're seeing.
Yes.
So I guess one of the main investor debates or conversations we've been having this year on information services companies is really the AI impact on the whole sector. And I do want to talk about AI disruption risk and competitive landscape and things like that. But I think oftentimes, people don't really ask about or really debate about the AI upside to some of these information services companies. And I thought a good place to start there is just in your last investor presentation deck, you highlighted AI-enabled customers are actually consuming more data, and that's a positive impact on TransUnion. I was wondering if you can talk us through some of that, what you're seeing and the potential revenue uplift that you could see from this AI implementation.
Yes, for sure. So I mean, look, as a first principle, I think we can all agree that AI can do very powerful things with access to quality curated, relevant information at scale. And that's no different in my part of the information services industry, credit reporting and marketing and fraud services and the like than anywhere else, legal research or market information or medical publishing. The difference is that the information that we provide as our business foundation is very difficult to access. You need to have tens of thousands of relationships in the U.S. market. Those are individually contracted. Those are managed on a monthly basis ongoing. You have to have a legal permissible use to gather the information, and then you have to be very careful about who you allow to access it. You have got to monitor the manner in which they're using it. And this all takes place under a very tight, clear and punitive legal and regulatory framework. And I think that creates a considerable barrier to entry because you simply can't get access to the credit information for the AI to do what the AI does.
The other problem is that generative AI isn't really applicable to core credit decisioning because it's legally required that you'd be able to expose the full audit trail of how a loan decision was made and inform the consumer of that. And that's not possible with generative AI. However, you can still leverage AI and machine learning in order to accelerate the development of predictive models that is really the basis, the purpose of all of this credit information. So as I look at our business, it's a very large and defensible moat around credit information. There is a similar moat around the marketing and the fraud data that we provide because much of that signal comes from broad global industry consortiums that we've built with hundreds of companies, and we have years and years of data there. And so that's a difficult barrier to access.
AI principally gets this information in the foundational models by crawling the Internet and crawling publicly available sources and doing broad content licensing deals and the like. And none of the information that we provide is really accessible in that way. So I feel like, first, the data layer, the intelligence foundation for our business, if you will, exists behind very material barriers to entry. But the purpose of the data is to use it to build models that can better predict the future, better predict outcomes, outcomes for loans or marketing campaigns or certain fraud prevention techniques. And so we can employ that type of technology to more rapidly refresh and deploy models in much less time at much lower cost, which is going to allow us to do more of it and better service the full spectrum of our clients.
Now when you think about a bureau like TransUnion in the U.S., we have thousands of clients. Some of them are very large and sophisticated, and they really just need our data and understanding about what data is available for their own modeling and internal efforts. We call that the do-it-yourself segment of the market. There's an equally large segment that need our assistance. That's the do-it-with-me segment of the market. And there's a third equally large segment that really wants our help, wants us to do it for them, right? So those 3 growth segments, there's an opportunity for us to really expand the range of services that we can provide them based on the acquisition and the integration of all of these products on a common platform, but also the depth to which we provide it. I mean, right now, a typical lender may only refresh their loan origination model once a year, right? Because it's difficult and it is somewhat costly to do it.
With AI and with the tech innovation of bringing all of our data together on a common platform, we can refresh those origination models or the cross-sell models or delinquency and collection treatment models, whatever aspect of the lending life cycle you want to focus on, we can do it more frequently and more effectively in a forward deployed partnership with our clients. And so it's going to enable us to really change the manner in which we serve our clients from more reactive and at their request to proactive and enabling, and that's really something that wasn't possible before AI and the application of it across our data sets.
Got it. There's a lot to dive into there. At TransUnion, when you think about your AI implementation initiatives and processes, I guess, how much of that is focused on internal cost save opportunities? How much of that is focused on externally driving whether it's new products, new client segments that you weren't able to previously in the pre-AI world. Maybe talk us through some of the initiatives that you're really excited about across credit, marketing, fraud, consumer.
Well, first, just as we were discussing, I guess I'm probably most excited about the ability to use our data and AI in combination to service our clients' credit fraud marketing, identity resolution, data hygiene needs more proactively, more holistically than we could previously and really kind of transform the frequency and depth with which we do that, right? And I think that's an enormous revenue growth opportunity for us. And when you were at our recent Investor Day, a number of investors commented to me that they've been to the website, and they've seen demos of the agents that we've created to orchestrate and accelerate analytics and model development. But we can now build all those predictive models in a fraction of the time that it took previously.
Our large analytics consulting organization, which is a key enabler of our data usage is like orders of magnitude more productive. And that's where they're going to become more forward-facing, more kind of forward engineering and consultative than before. And I think that it will enable a lot of growth because, I mean, look, the truth is our business and our industry has evolved a lot in recent years. We're not just about credit. We are broad global diversified consumer data and insights companies. But most of our clients don't appreciate all that we can help them with. And so this is a great way to both evangelize the things that we can do, but also deliver real value analytically. So that's the first thing AI is accelerating that I'm super excited about.
Now obviously, software development and data science is one of the most critical things that we do is our internal manufacturing process, if you will. I'd say 60% of my global headcount is in those 2 areas. And those associates are more productive because of AI support in the whole spectrum of software development activities. We estimate between 20% and 50% productivity improvements across our technology organization, depending on what they're doing and how well AI can enable it. And that's definitely true on the analytics modeling side where things like our analytics orchestrator are driving orders of magnitude productivity increases.
Now we're in the early days of applying artificial intelligence to some of our consumer and customer support operations. I do think eventually, you will see nice savings flow from that. But when I think about savings and the potential for them across the portfolio in the medium term, AI will be an important part of that. But remember, because we've been investing on the technological side to build a global product platform, OneTru, and most of our business will run on OneTru in the medium term, that's going to allow me to dramatically reshape my product, my technology organization where today, I'm running on separate individual technology stacks in each of the 30 countries that I operate in around the world, that's going to be replaced by a global configurable tech stack enabled by all of our proprietary data, and I can deploy that in markets around the world.
So our business model is going to evolve from the sum of vertically integrated multi-domestic pieces to one that is globally architected and run on a global product platform, but also an internal operational platform that's shared across our business in different markets. So just deploying all of that, which we've created over the past 4 years, and we're in full rollout mode, that means material structural cost reductions that we'll use to accelerate revenue through sales deployment and new innovation, but also flow through to bottom line margin enhancements. And then in addition to that, we're going to apply AI.
So have you thought about the sizing of that medium-term cost opportunity that you highlighted? Because one of the key steps that you mentioned is 20% to 50% uplift in productivity for developers. So it's also a question of like how much of that do you reinvest? How much of that do you give back to margins? So maybe just tell us a little bit more about how you think about that.
Yes. And so the blended estimate on improved productivity for my developers is, say, 30%. But if you talk to any CEO in Information Services, they will tell you that the -- either their innovation pipeline or their internal efficiency pipeline that requires software development to fulfill it ideally needs more than a 30% productivity boost. So it's great that they're more productive. I can absorb all of that productivity and drive faster innovation and faster innovation deployment and a better operational tech stack and use that to become more efficient rather than downsizing any employees, right? I'm going to take -- I'm going to use it as a productivity enabler and then implement those benefits.
But look, we had an Investor Day recently. The medium-term guide calls for improving margins 50 basis points a year over the next 3 to 4 years. That's in addition to a 240 bps improvement in margin that's transpired over the past 4 years that was largely masked by the price increases that FICO was putting through that were included in our revenue. And again, that's revenue upon which we have no margin, right? So it was masking the operational leverage and the revenue flow-through that we were seeing in the business. Now that we can break that out, investors can see that indeed, our margins have improved a lot over the past 4 years. And to get to really what you're asking, can I outperform the 50 basis points? What I would say is this, putting uncertainties aside, if I could count on 7% to 9% compounding revenue growth and a lot of that -- it's coming through with a good mix of credit, I have a lot of flow-through to profit that coupled with the structural cost reductions makes me highly confident in the 50 bps as a floor.
Got it. Super helpful. And we'll come back to FICO in just a second. Maybe one last question on AI. And I know, Chris, you touched on this at the beginning of this AI discussion about your competitive -- clear competitive advantages in the credit space. Can you maybe tell us a little bit more about how you think about AI native competitors in fraud, marketing, consumer? And how are you thinking about TransUnion's competitive advantages there?
Yes, absolutely. So I mean I grew up in information services. I probably worked for 25-plus years in different information services companies or conglomerates that had legal, tax, financial, medical, health care data, et cetera. And so I keep track on what's going on in a lot of these spaces. And again, as a rule, where the information is broadly accessible, then new AI competitors can come and challenge the competitive dynamics in the industry, and you're seeing different variants of that as you look broadly across the space.
Now that's not to say that the incumbents that have a massive advantage in terms of the data they've got and their domain expertise won't respond and compete very effectively over time. You don't see that dynamic in credit because the moat around the credit data and its mission criticality and the high regulatory content is so substantial. In the marketing world or in the fraud world, there are various AI-enabled competitors that have been there for quite some time. I'd say the advantage that we have as an incumbent is all of the proprietary data that we get from the industry consortiums that we've created in fraud and marketing.
In fraud, we've got this 1.5 decades consortium of companies that use our software to detect potential fraudulent behavior on their e-commerce servers and then they report that to us. And we have a large device reputational network that is proprietary and is a considerable moat to providing online fraud detection. In the phone world, that data comes from the carriers. We're one of 2 scaled players in providing phone authentication. And then any other flavor of fraud mitigation, be it biometric or knowledge-based authenticators, et cetera, et cetera, we either originate market-leading solutions in those areas or we have a full range of partnerships, and we take all of that signal of potential fraud and it goes into the OneTru data foundation and our clients can build rapidly very sophisticated AI-enabled models to score the likelihood of fraud in the transaction.
So in short, it's the combination of our architecture and our analytics sophistication fueled by a lot of proprietary data, even in areas like fraud or marketing that gives us an advantage against new players that come up that are really just leveraging somebody else's AI capability.
Got it. So scaled data and...
Scaled proprietary data, modern tech stack, AI sophistication, deep client relationships, forward engineering organization in a massive domain wrapper.
Got it.
So look, when people think about AI and potential for disruption, they often come at it first from, is this theoretically possible? The answer is sure, it's theoretically possible. The second question should be, is this economically viable given the advantage of the entrenched players and their technological sophistication and the clear motivation we all have to be excellent at this. And I think there's a lot of fallout when you consider economic viability against large sophisticated entrenched competitors.
It's very well said. Thanks so much, Chris. I guess switching gears to talk about the credit score transition. that's taking place right now. Maybe a good place to start is just the VantageScore pilot program that FHFA Director, Bill Pulte has announced a few weeks ago. We heard about this 21 approved lenders. We heard various different things about the loan level pricing adjustments for VantageScore. I guess like from your seat, what are you hearing from lenders, MBS investors, regulators? How is the pilot program going?
Sure. Yes. Well, no shortage of things to talk about in the mortgage realm, particularly around the implementation in earnest of score competition, which I think is a really great and healthy thing for the U.S. mortgage market simply because the VantageScore is a next-generation score based on trended and alternative data and developed with modern scoring techniques. It's a very good score. It performs very well against the incumbent. The challenge, of course, is that current processes are designed in consideration of only one score for over 30 years. And the way I would characterize it is we're in the early days of working through all of the adjustments, all of the learnings, all of the human behavioral change that has to happen to enable share shift and competition at scale.
The good news is that the FHFA, this is for real, this is happening. There is massive interest among lenders, amongst lenders in the 21 are some of the largest mortgage originators in the U.S., people like UWM, people like Rocket Mortgage, a variety of the largest banks, et cetera. And there's just a tremendous proven tangible appetite for change given the massive price increases that have been put through by the incumbent, not only over the last 4 years, but in really since 2006 forward when Vantage was formed to create a counterweight to their monopoly, right?
And so there's just no doubt that there's market demand for this. There's no doubt that the score is better. And of course, it's going to take some time to work it through, but that's all happening because there's a tremendous economic incentive on behalf of the lenders for it to happen. And score improvements contributes to overall safety and soundness as well, which the FHFA wants to happen. And most importantly, the FHFA is also very focused on reducing loan transaction costs. And so a score that cost $0.99 versus one that costs $10 or $5 plus a contingency on a successful borrower, these are material dollars that can be taken out of the system that aren't contributing a lot to the economics.
I guess what are the remaining hurdles for a full-scale implementation for VantageScore? I mean it's great that there are 21 approved lenders, but there are hundreds of other smaller lenders in the market. So I guess like what's your expectation around both VantageScore full-scale implementation time line and maybe FICO 10T implementation time line as well?
Well, the FHFA has said that they hope to certify FICO 10T over the summer at some point, and we'll see if they can deliver on that time frame. And I expect that FICO 10T will be a materially more performance score than FICO Classic because it takes advantage of the alternative data and the trended data that the bureaus provide. And ultimately, it's the data that determines the efficacy of the score. It's not the magic of the score. So that's what we understand on that development. But I think we're in a prolonged period of transition. And this is my estimation based on what I gather from a variety of sources. This is in some definitive proclamation by the FHFA. But the FHFA is working at this in earnest. The GSEs are ready, and they'll probably take the majority of this year to continue to educate and refine the process because there are multiple players in this mortgage origination through securitization process. They have to be brought along. There are some systems adjustments that have to take place. Those are all -- this is a large change management process, and it's going to take some time.
And I think that's why, look, it was prudent that each of the bureaus came out and assumed no adoption of Vantage over the course of this year and said, let's make '26 a year about learning and change management. I'm sure some of that will continue into '27. I do think there will be some share adoption of Vantage in '26. You're seeing that. But this is not a flip the switch. This is not a single event becomes the aha moment that proves that nothing will ever change. I think those are all kind of wishful and unrealistic assumptions. The fact is it's going to change. There's going to be score competition. There's a tremendous economic incentive to adopt Vantage, and it's just going to take some time to work it through.
Got it. I guess in the non-mortgage verticals across credit card, auto, personal loans, what type of market share has VantageScore been able to gain over the years? And what's your medium-term expectation for VantageScore market share gains in mortgage?
Yes. Look, that's a good pivot because oftentimes, the FICO versus Advantage discussion is framed in a way where it's as if Vantage is this new thing that has just appeared on the scene. Vantage has been around since 2006. Vantage is significantly used in consumer lending. There's a major card issuer, Synchrony, that for not quite a decade now has been fully on Vantage, originating, securitizing. You see it in auto as well. We've had a nice business amongst community financial institutions that originate a whole lot of mortgage and moving to Vantage because of price escalations from the incumbent, right? So it's known. It's used across 4,000 banks. It's the most frequently pulled score or offered score in consumer education. And so what I think will happen is I think the share that exists outside of mortgage exists for a large reason because of the halo effect of the monopoly that exists in mortgage. As that monopoly becomes competition and share begins to balance between the 2 players, I think it will have a knock-on effect on share dynamics in these other lending categories.
So I guess one of the main initiatives or projects that Director Pulte is really excited about is just reducing closing costs. So under that or in this general operating environment, how should we think about pricing for VantageScore and credit data in the next few years?
We'll just focus on the score for this time. I mean, look, we operate in countries around the world. We produce scores. There are some other third-party scores that we would distribute in one market or another. But around the world, there are no other scores that sell for the price point of a FICO score in U.S. mortgage markets, right? I think that's just a function of a lack of competition. I'm very comfortable with the score where we're at. I don't think this is a time to worry about pricing or revenue realization. It's -- let's be supportive of industry change. Let's lay the foundation for real competition going forward and enable share shift.
And then over time, I mean, look, any revenue we get from a score is additive to our P&L currently. And within our business, we have fully decoupled our data revenues versus third-party scores, right? And so FICO is at liberty to manage their business as they see fit. We're more than happy to calculate the score on our data behind our firewalls, if that's what the client wants. We're more than happy to support FICO's direct licensing program. If I could wave a wand and 100% of FICO score calculation shifted to resellers or clients, I'm fine with that. My economics, my revenue, my profit is unchanged. It's just my margin goes up a lot because I no longer have to book 0 margin FICO revenue in my P&L.
So I mean, I think it's important to understand that decoupling that's been achieved over the past year or 2. And again, we're focused on share shift and share adoption. So pricing will remain what it is today for the long foreseeable future. And we will continue to take the very reasonable price increases that we have put through both TransUnion and our bureau competitors that really reflect significant investment in innovation. I mean, remember, just recently, we had Director Pulte and Director Turner of HUD, celebrating score competition, celebrating the use of alternative and trended data. And you have to remember that, that moment was made possible by 20 years of patient investing by the bureaus in creating a credit score alternative and creating trended and alternative data. And so the fact that we have put through some price increases and we'll continue to do so on our product reflects a lot of underlying innovation and investment that's taken place over 2 decades to get to this point.
Got it. Maybe just one last question on mortgage. I do want to touch on the whole tri-merge, bi-merge, single-file underwriting debate. And we've seen, I think the FHA has already said that tri-merge requirement remains for the time being when we're going through the credit score transitions. So I guess, worst-case scenario, if we do move from tri-merge to either bi-merge or single file underwriting, could you just talk us through TransUnion's competitive advantage in the credit data space?
Yes. Look, there's a number of ways to come at this. But I think we have to start with likelihood and severity, right, because investors get concerned when they hear regulators make comments that while not about the tri-merge necessarily, raise some question about further potential change. It's my belief, it's our belief based on any number of discussions we've had in and around Washington, and in particular, within the FHFA, within the GSEs, within the HUD, within the treasury, within the administration, within Capitol Hill, across Capitol Hill, there is firm and broad support for the tri-merge. It is highly unlikely that there will be any shift. And at this point, really the only people who are advocating a change is the Mortgage Bankers Association. And I appreciate their circumstances. This is -- the past 5 years, it's been very difficult to be a mortgage broker, or a mortgage originator. Volumes are dramatically below the curve.
So I understand why they want to try to find cost reductions wherever they can. But it's imprudent to go to a single poll or even a bi-merge because you lose a lot of important data, a lot of predictive signal that helps you, one, determine fraud; and two, most accurately price the mortgage for the consumer that you're trying to win and then ultimately, to the GSEs to whom you want to sell the loan. So there's a strong economic reason for lenders to pull multiple scores and the tri-merge. There's a strong overall safety and soundness argument in support of it. But let's say, even if it does happen, right? Well, look, we love our mortgage business. We love the tri-merge component. We value all of the components of our revenue stream. But it wouldn't be that material to our overall P&L, right? We will be over $5 billion. We will be approaching $1.9 billion in EBITDA.
When you look at the component of our business that is from the tri-merge at underwriting, it's a relatively modest portion, particularly because we're not talking about it all going away. We're talking about the potential reduction from 3 to 2 and perhaps some price competition. And I would just remind everybody, we just went through this over the past 2 years, right? The FHFA said, you no longer have to pull at qualification 3 credit reports in order to get a signal from the GSEs about whether they would buy this conforming mortgage, you could just pull one. And the market has, over 2 years, reached an equilibrium of pulling more than 2. And I would say that our mortgage revenues have grown very nicely over this period. Our share is stable to growing. And I don't think investors have really noticed the change. So if the same thing were to happen, and again, it's a super low probability at mortgage underwriting when -- I don't think it's nothing that we wouldn't grow through in a single year.
That's very helpful. Switching gears to international markets. The 2 markets I definitely want to touch on is Mexico and India. In Mexico, you just completed the acquisition of TransUnion de Mexico. Maybe tell us more about what attracted you to that asset in the first place? What kind of revenue or cost synergy are you expecting? And how should we think about the medium-term growth algo and margin profile of this business?
Well, from the get-go, Mexico will be accretive to our overall growth rate and our overall profit margins even as we're integrating the business this year and not separating out integration costs, right? So it's a very profitable and attractive market and asset. And it's one that we've been in for over 25 years. We owned 26% of the bureau over this period. We wanted to buy fully into it, but the Mexican banks wanted to retain the asset at that point, and we were their technology partner.
Finally, circumstances presented themselves where we could acquire the bureau in full, and we have. But the way it stands today is it's a very basic bureau. It's got good data coverage across the large banks and the smaller banks and the fintechs as well. But we will materially broaden the coverage, and we will replatform it from the legacy tech stack, which is considerably behind OneTru, which will bring the range of our credit analytics sophistication into the Mexican market, coupled with all of our marketing, fraud, consumer enablement and identity resolution capabilities, all of which are native and integrated to the OneTru platform.
So in short, we're going to enable a lot better credit functionality plus a whole range of additive complementary functionality in the Mexican market and all taken to market with the thought leadership and the partner problem-solving orientation that we have in every market in which we compete. Mexico is a big market. It's fast growing. Traditional financial services are underpenetrated. And what we do, both on the data and analytics side is a real enablement for economic growth and financial inclusion. So I think Mexico will become one of the real bright spots in the portfolio over time.
Speaking of bright spots, I guess India has been a key growth driver in TransUnion's portfolio for so many years. And I guess, sometime in 2023, I think the end of 2023, we had the RBI's cooling action, and now we're just getting out of this bottom of the cycle. Maybe tell us a little bit more about how you think about the recovery trajectory for TransUnion's India business in '26, '27? And what level of new normal in terms of medium-term growth rate can we expect for that business?
Well, sure. Well, look, first things first. The good news is we are recovering in India in the second quarter as we expected and as we guided to, which puts us on track for the full year recovery that we're forecasting in 2026. You characterized the RBI actions as cooling actions in 2023. I think that's exactly right. We had been growing at about 30% a year for 3 years. It was fueled by a lot of economic growth and a lot of lending activity, particularly online unsecured new-to-credit lending activity and the RBI became concerned about some of those practices and perhaps that it was a bit overdone.
The good news is despite the cooling measures that they put in place, which actually worked really well, much to our volume detriment, the delinquencies of the loans that were originated in that period have been very stable, right? So it didn't manifest itself as a lending problem, a loan problem, but it definitely cooled the market. What you saw replacing it and what has helped that market return to growth are gold loans, which unfortunately don't require a lot of credit pools, although we're starting to introduce some analytics around that. Aside from that, personal lending, card lending, et cetera, has bottomed and is starting to grow, and that's why we're starting to see the improvements in our results.
So I feel like you're going to see some good organic growth over the remaining quarters of this year that get us back on track. Obviously, India is a fantastic market to have this fantastic and large share business in. And I would expect -- I mean, medium-term guidance, I mean, it's mid-teens plus. And I don't know that we have provided medium-term guidance necessarily on India, but I'm just -- I'm loath to get too far ahead of the next quarter because I just want to start to see more of this recovery. But look, things are still strong in India, a massive productive population, underpenetrated in traditional financial products, a sophisticated regulator and government that wants to build a world-class financial services industry and a heck of a lot of GDP growth. So I'm thrilled with that position.
Got it. Maybe just one last question before we wrap. How are you thinking about capital allocation capital allocation between buybacks, debt, payments, M&A?
Sure. Well, look, our debt is in very good shape. Even pos-acquisition of Mexico, we're at about 2.8x. We will easily go down beneath our target of 2.5x leverage by the end of this year. We really want to focus a lot of energies on share buybacks. Unfortunately, the growth of the hyperscalers and the frenzy around all components of the AI stack is sucking a lot of oxygen out of information services. Some fear of AI displacement is also impacting information services, and we want to buy back shares to the greatest extent possible. I expect that we will buy back roughly the same amount of shares this year as we did in '25, where we started to accelerate it, but that's only because we had to pay for the Mexico acquisition this year. Next year, we've got all of our free cash flow, which is now solidly above 90%. And if we're still in this position where there's a big share value dislocation, we'll be aggressive in buying back shares.
Got it. This is all super helpful. Thank you so much for sharing with us today.
Thanks for hosting.
Thanks for everyone for coming.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
TransUnion — Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference
TransUnion — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and welcome to the TransUnion First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] please note this event is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Greg Bardi, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for attending today. Joining me on the call are Chris Cartwright, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Todd Cello, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
We posted our earnings release and slides to accompany this call on the TransUnion Investor Relations website this morning, and they can also be found in the current report on Form 8-K that we filed this morning. Our earnings release and the accompanying slides include various schedules, which contain more detailed information about revenue, operating expenses and other items, as well as certain non-GAAP disclosures and financial measures along with the corresponding reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures.
Today's call will be recorded and a replay will be available on our website. We will also be making statements during this call that are forward-looking. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements because of factors discussed in today's earnings release and the comments made during this conference call and in our most recent Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q and other reports and filings with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement.
With that, let me turn it over to Chris.
Thanks, Greg, and let me add my welcome and outline today's agenda. First, I will review our first quarter results and updated 2026 guidance. Second, I'll discuss how AI is accelerating innovation across to you and driving higher data usage among some clients. And then I'll pass to Todd, who will detail our first quarter results and provide second quarter and full year '26 guidance.
So we started the year very strong, exceeding our first quarter guidance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted earnings per share. This is our ninth straight quarter of at least high single-digit organic constant currency revenue growth with 11% growth versus our 8% to 9% guidance. Excluding FICO mortgage royalties, revenue grew 7% and which is also above our expectations. Now U.S. markets grew 14%. Financial Services led the way up 24% or 14% excluding FICO mortgage royalties. We delivered broad-based strength across lending types driven by modest volume growth, pricing actions and sales momentum across both credit and noncredit solutions.
Emerging verticals had another healthy quarter growing more than 6% led by insurance and public sector. International revenue was flat organically as expected. Canada and the U.K. grew high single digits and Africa grew 10%, and India declined mid-single digit, slightly better than we'd expected, and we expect a gradual improvement throughout the course of the year. Now strong revenue growth translated into 12% growth in adjusted diluted earnings per share. In line with our disciplined M&A approach focused on highly strategic bolt-ons, we recently completed 2 acquisitions. TransUnion to Mexico extends our global playbook into an attractive market where we now hold the leading position. The smaller acquisition of RealNetworks Mobile division adds complementary messaging capabilities to our leading trusted call solutions. And in addition to completing these acquisitions, we repurchased $25 million of shares year-to-date through April. We have ample capacity under our $1 billion repurchase authorization and expect to increase repurchases over the rest of the year.
Our outperformance reflects consistent execution in a relatively stable operating environment. The strength of our diversified portfolio positions us to navigate potential changes in economic conditions. And as a reminder, our customers entered 2026 with cautious optimism. Lenders anticipated loan growth supported by their strong balance sheets, healthy consumer finances and expectations for rate cuts throughout the year. In February, the conflict in Iran added uncertainty about inflation, interest rates and the potential impact on consumers. The 10-year treasury rate in the 30-year mortgage rate are currently 4.3% and 6.3%, respectively, after briefly dipping below 4% and 6% in late February. We continue to monitor market dynamics and potential second order impacts on consumers and customers. To date, we have not observed any change in customer behavior tied to these developments. Through mid-April, volume and revenue trends have remained at or ahead of our expectations. We saw a brief pickup in refi-driven mortgage activity during February's rate debt, followed by a March normalization previous levels. U.S. nonmortgage lending remains healthy. Against this backdrop, we delivered another strong sales quarter, underscoring sustained demand and commercial momentum for our credit marketing and fraud solutions. An uncertain market underscores the importance of our durable growth strategy. We have the broadest, deepest and most relevant solutions portfolio in our history.
Our fastest-growing products include trusted call solutions, True IQ, identity-based marketing and next-gen fraud models, which address customer needs across economic cycles. Looking ahead, we expect our strongest ever cohort of new product launches and major enhancements in 2026. While our investments in global AI-enabled platforms position us for cost efficiency and operating leverage. Against this backdrop, we are maintaining our full year organic constant currency guidance, including revenue growth of 8% to 9%. We are balancing first quarter outperformance driven by healthy underlying trends against macro uncertainty and the need to maintain prudently conservative guidance. The increase to the high end of our guidance, $154 million of revenue, $39 million of adjusted EBITDA and and $0.04 of adjusted diluted earnings per share primarily reflects the addition of TU to Mexico.
Our guidance approach remains unchanged. If current trends continue, we expect to perform at or above the high end of our range. Alternatively, we expect that we could absorb a reasonable level of market softening within our guidance range. Todd will provide additional details on our guidance assumptions. At the high end of guidance, we expect to deliver our third consecutive year of high single-digit organic constant currency revenue growth and double-digit adjusted diluted EPS growth. Now this consistently strong financial performance underscores the strength and durability of our growth strategy. And as we highlighted throughout our Investor Day last month, AI can enhance that strength and fuel a new generation of growth.
Our proprietary and differentiated data assets anchor our competitive advantage as we move into an AI future. Our contributor or credit databases are sourced from thousands of institutions operating under demanding regulatory frameworks. Our industry-leading identity graph combines our proprietary data with billions of dynamic disparate signals in near real time, creating a network effect that powers our marketing and fraud solutions. We power our customers' complex mission-critical workflows with governable, explainable data and deep domain expertise, delivering effective and deterministic outcomes. And these solutions are priced economically relative to the significant value that they provide. Instead, we believe AI is a growth accelerant, enabling us to activate our data to serve our customers more effectively.
Already, AI drives tangible growth for TransUnion in 2 ways. First, by increasing demand for our data; and second, by accelerating our pace of innovation. Now let me provide additional context for what we highlighted at Investor Day to explain how these dynamics are converging. From a demand perspective, AI models are only as good as the data we can learn from, and customers are prioritizing the freshest, highest-quality signals. Our powerful and flexible [indiscernible] platform enables customers to integrate our best-in-class data directly into their AI environments. As AI-driven workflow scale, we see customers expand their use of TU's data, shifting from episodic transactions toward more embedded partnerships. For these reasons, our most AI-enabled customers are already consuming more data and adopting innovations faster. While most of our customers are early in their AI journey.
Let me share 2 examples of how TransUnion facilitated AI adoption for 2 lenders and then how we scaled our relationship as a result. Now 1 of our most sophisticated fintech customers has embedded AI across underwriting, portfolio management, customer service, marketing and fraud prevention. As these enabled programs scale, the customer expanded their use of our credit, identity and fraud signals within their workflows. Their AI underwriting models also refresh data more frequently, driving higher credit volumes. Their spending with TransUnion increased by more than 60% from 2022 and approaching $15 million in revenue in 2025 and outpacing 50% loan growth and volumetric unit pricing. Also a top 5 credit card issuer has embedded to use data across its AI-enabled governance, risk management, servicing and engagement workflows for its 50 million-plus accounts. These workflows support daily customer engagement and risk triggers rather than periodic checks.
As a result, our relationship has evolved from a point-in-time transactional data vendor to a mission-critical, enterprise-wide partner under a multiyear subscription-based contract. TransUnion's revenue with this customer increased by over 20% from 2022 to $20 million in 2025. And despite a decline in new accounts during that period. We see opportunity to deepen its relationship further by cross-selling additional credit in noncredit solutions.
Now our next-generation AI power products reflect and drive increased demand for our data. During Investor Day, we highlighted 3 of these solutions, all built on the OneTru platform, these solutions enhance fast-growing products operating at scale, including True IQ, marketing audiences and fraud analytics to enable continued growth. they industrialize in-demand customized analytics into scalable solutions that drive higher data usage and monetization across our portfolio.
So first, TruIQ Analytics orchestrator uses Google's Gemini models to streamline advanced credit modeling with natural language prompts. Analytics orchestrator scales the expertise typically delivered in highly effective but ad hoc innovation labs into a self-service solution. This enables customers to build models faster and more frequently with less reliance on our data science teams. We expect analytics orchestrator to increase data usage drive new revenue streams, enable stickier customer relationships. In marketing, we are transforming our static audience segments into curated and outcome-driven audiences by TransUnion built off our identity backbone. We're also providing self-service search and discovery tools that accelerate activation and improve campaign performance. We expect improved efficiency and speed to drive increased consumption of our marketing audiences. And in front, our AI model factory unifies our identity data and advances analytic capabilities to respond to evolving fraud threat vectors. We're launching new fraud models at 2 to 3x faster than previously possible with 10 new models launched in the last 12 months, including our credit washing and synthetic identity solutions. We generated tens of millions of dollars of incremental pipeline from these new fraud models. So in summary, AI will continue to accelerate our pace of innovation and expand the ways customers consume data, supporting durable growth across our solution suites.
Now with that, I'll hand it over to Todd.
Thanks, Chris, and let me add my welcome to everyone. I'll build on that overview with first quarter results before providing guidance. Starting with the quarter, we exceeded the high end of our guidance across all key metrics by $41 million on revenue and $18 million on adjusted EBITDA or $22 million and $8 million, respectively, excluding the Mexico acquisition.
Total revenue increased 14% on a reported and 11% on an organic constant currency basis led by U.S. Financial Services. Excluding FICO mortgage royalties, organic growth was 7%. Growth was broad-based and aligned with the innovation priorities outlined at Investor Day. Credit, excluding FICO mortgage royalties and fraud, both grew high single digit driven by continued traction in TruIQ, alternative data and trusted call solutions. Marketing Solutions delivered mid-single-digit growth with healthy identity performance.
Consumer Solutions grew low single digit including another quarter of double-digit growth internationally. Adjusted EBITDA increased 10%. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 35.2%, down 100 basis points year-over-year. As anticipated, underlying margins contracted modestly in FICO mortgage royalties were a 120 basis point headwind. Our Mexico acquisition contributed 25 basis points in the quarter. Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $1.18, up 12% year-over-year and $0.08 ahead at the high end of our guidance. In the first quarter, U.S. markets revenue grew 14% on an organic constant currency basis versus the prior year. Across all our B2B verticals, we delivered strong bookings and retention rates to start the year.
Financial Services revenue grew 24% or 14% excluding FICO mortgage royalties. The environment remains constructive, and we outperformed underlying volumes driven by TruIQ, alternative data and noncredit solutions. Within financial services, credit card and banking rose 5% on stable lending volumes and strength from trusted call solutions. Consumer lending grew 13% and supported by sustained consumer demand and strong FinTech performance. FinTechs continue to perform well with increasingly diversified funding bases and delinquency trends within historical norms. Auto was up 11%, outpacing modest industry volume declines through pricing, share gains and new wins across our solution suites.
Mortgage revenue grew 50% excluding FICO royalties, revenue grew 24% compared to inquiries up 7%. Inquiries were slightly better than anticipated, with additional outperformance through pricing and increased adoption of non tri-bureau solutions. Emerging verticals grew 6%, led by another quarter of double-digit growth in insurance -- within insurance, credit-based marketing continues to recover as insurers and pursue profitable growth. Consumer shopping also remains active. We drove new wins and growth across core credit driving history, trusted call solutions and marketing solutions.
Across our other emerging verticals, public sector grew high single digits and is positioned for a strong year. tech, retail and e-commerce, and media grew mid-single digits. Communications grew modestly tenant and employment declined modestly but is expected to return to growth over the rest of the year. Consumer Interactive was flat, driven by indirect channel growth and breach-related wins, offset by declines in the direct channel.
In international, all revenue growth comparisons are on an organic constant currency basis. International revenue was flat in the quarter, reflecting varied results across our diversified portfolio. Our 2 most developed markets drove outperformance against subdued market conditions. U.K. grew 7%, driven by healthy volumes from our largest banking and fintech customers as well as new wins across verticals. Canada grew 9%, reflecting another quarter of innovation-led growth as well as strong performance from fintechs and insurance. Africa performed well, too, growing 10% with strength across banking, FinTech and retail. Across our other emerging markets, India, Latin America and Asia Pacific, growth was softer, reflecting subdued conditions and timing dynamics. India declined 5%, slightly better than guided. We expect a gradual recovery in consumer lending, supporting mid-single-digit growth for India in 2026.
We also continued to accelerate the pace of innovation in India. Most recently, we announced a strategic partnership with the leading Indian telco geo to enable branded calling across its 500 million subscribers as we continue to expand the reach of our leading trusted call solutions globally. Latin America was flat organically with growth in Brazil, offset by modest declines in Colombia and other markets. TransUnion to Mexico which was recorded as inorganic, grew well in the first quarter on the heels of double-digit growth in 2025. Asia Pacific declined 18%, primarily by lapping onetime contracts, as well as softer volumes. Performance across India, Latin America and Asia Pacific is expected to improve in the second quarter and as the year progresses.
Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the first quarter with $5.6 billion of debt and $733 million of cash. During the quarter, we funded the approximately $660 million purchase for TransUnion New Mexico with $520 million drawn from our credit revolver as well as cash on hand. As a result, our leverage ratio at quarter end increased modestly to 2.8x. For the remainder of 2026 we plan to continue to execute our balanced capital allocation framework, prioritizing debt prepayment and capital return to shareholders. We have repurchased $25 million so far this year and expect to increase the pace of repurchases over the remainder of the year. We also remain committed to pushing our leverage ratio towards our long-term target of under 2.5x. Before getting into guidance details, I want to reiterate our approach.
Even with first quarter outperformance and healthy underlying momentum we are maintaining our full year organic growth assumptions. This reflects our disciplined guidance philosophy and provides flexibility in an uncertain environment. In the second quarter, we are guiding revenue to be between $1.271 billion to $1.283 billion, up 12% to 13%. Acquisitions add 4% and and FX has an immaterial impact on our guidance. We expect organic constant currency revenue growth of 8% to 9% or 5% to 6% excluding FICO mortgage royalties. We anticipate mortgage revenue growing over 30% or 10% plus excluding FICO, compared to a mid-single-digit decline in inquiries. We are guiding adjusted EBITDA to $439 million to $445 million, up 8% to 9%, implying a margin of 34.5% to 34.7%. Underlying margins expand by 20 to 40 basis points, offset by an 80 basis point drag from FICO royalties and a 60 basis point impact from acquisitions. We expect our adjusted diluted earnings per share to be between $1.13 and $1.15, up 4% to 6%.
For full year guidance, we expect revenue to be between $5.1 billion and $5.135 billion, up 11% to 12%. Acquisitions add 3.5% and and FX has an immaterial impact on our guidance. Our organic constant currency assumptions are unchanged at 8% to 9% or 5% to 6% excluding FICO mortgage royalties. Our segment level assumptions are also unchanged. For mortgage, we continue to expect growth of 28% or 6%, excluding FICO, compared to mid-single-digit inquiry declines, unchanged since February. While the first quarter exceeded expectations, we modestly lowered volume assumptions for the remainder of the year to account for recent interest rate volatility.
Full details on mortgage assumptions are provided in our appendix. We anticipate mid-single-digit international revenue growth for the year, driven by gradual recoveries in India, Latin America and Asia Pacific, following a softer first quarter. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be 1.796 billion to $1.816 billion in 2026, up 9% to 10%. That results in a margin of 35.2% to 35.4%, down 60 to 80 basis points. Underlying margins are expected to expand by 50 to 70 basis points driven by revenue flow-through and remaining transformation savings. This strong underlying expansion is offset by a 90 basis point drag from FICO royalties and a 40 basis point impact from our acquisitions. We anticipate adjusted diluted earnings per share to be $4.68 to $4.75, up 9% to 11%.
For other guidance items, depreciation and amortization is now expected to be approximately $640 million or $320 million, excluding step-up amortization from our 2012 change in control and subsequent acquisitions. We anticipate net interest expense of $245 million, up $25 million from February reflecting $20 million related to debt financing for the Mexico acquisition and $5 million from higher sulfur on floating rate debt.
Our adjusted tax rate is expected to be approximately 25.5%, modestly better than anticipated, driven by favorable geographic mix of earnings and changes in tax law that became effective in 2026. Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately 6% of revenue. We expect free cash flow conversion as a percentage of adjusted net income to be 90% or greater in 2026 and going forward.
Slide 17 reconciles our updated full year guidance relative to February. As shown, the increase is driven by our consolidation of TransUnion to Mexico, with nonoperating items having a net neutral impact on adjusted diluted EPS. While TransUnion to Mexico is accretive to 2026 earnings, it is modestly dilutive to our adjusted EBITDA margins this year. Importantly, the Mexico business operates at margins above our company average. The 2026 margin impact is driven by accounting mechanics rather than ongoing economics.
Historically, our 26% ownership was accounted for under the equity method, contributing approximately $17 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2025 with no associated revenue. Following the acquisition, Mexico's revenue is fully consolidated, while only the incremental adjusted EBITDA associated with increasing our ownership from 26% to 94% is additive versus prior reporting. As a result, consolidated margins appear modestly lower due to revenue consolidation despite the business's strong underlying profitability.
In addition, during 2026, we will incur onetime integration expenses related to the Mexico and Mobile division of [ Mural ] Networks acquisitions, which we are not adding back to adjusted EBITDA. Our 2026 guidance fits within the context of our medium-term financial framework, which we reintroduced at our March Investor Day. Over the medium term, we expect to deliver high single-digit organic revenue growth, 50 basis points of underlying margin expansion and low to mid-teens adjusted diluted earnings per share growth. This guidance is anchored in our repeatable earnings model and the momentum we are delivering today and not dependent on a recovery in U.S. mortgage or other markets.
Our medium-term financial framework reflects our value creation flywheel. Our multiyear transformation is now enabling faster innovation and improved commercial outcomes. We are scaling the business on a common technology and operating platform and deploying AI across the enterprise to drive further productivity. Our scalable growth drives compounding cash flow that we will deploy to fund our growth, optimize our balance sheet and increasingly return capital to shareholders.
With that context, I will turn the call back to Chris for closing remarks.
All right. Thanks, Todd. So before closing, I want to provide our perspective on last week's announcement from the FHFA Director and the HUD Secretary. These developments are an important milestone and a 20-year journey to enable competition and modernization in mortgage credit scoring.
So as noted by Director Pulte, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun accepting VantageScore 4.0. Freddie Mac took delivery of VantageScore loans during an operational test and will soon securitize them. The FHFA is expanding this pilot with a group of lenders and the GSEs will communicate pricing guidelines. Additionally, HUD Secretary, Scott Turner announced that the VantageScore will also be accepted for FHA mortgages starting later this year.
With the combination of Vantage 4.0 and TransUnion's comprehensive trended and alternative data will expand access to creditworthy consumers and promote affordability while maintaining safety and soundness within the mortgage ecosystem. And we have taken several steps to foster industry adoption, most recently announcing the industry's first 99 [indiscernible] VantageScore 4.0 mortgage pricing. Adoption of VantageScore can drive hundreds of millions of dollars of savings for lenders and consumers. Managed Score also represents an incremental revenue opportunity over time. We plan to support continued score valuation from our customers with free vintage score offered to those customers who purchased the FICO score through the end of 2026.
We are also offering customers multiyear pricing for credit reports and Vantage 4.0, providing better pricing certainty to lenders. And more broadly, our actions reflect our belief that effective mortgage underwriting and responsible financial inclusion are ultimately driven by the quality and the depth of the data used. As stewards of data on over 295 million U.S. consumers, we continue to invest in data sets and analytics that support the fairest and the most accurate credit decisions across economic cycles.
So in summary, we started 2026 with a good first quarter, growing both our revenue and our earnings by double digits. We've raised our guidance based on our recent acquisitions and anticipate a strong year. We're guiding 8% to 9% organic constant currency revenue growth and 9% to 11% adjusted diluted earnings per share growth. And AI continues to accelerate to use growth reinforced by the dynamics that we highlighted, expanding data demand and accelerating innovation, and we look forward to continuing this conversation in future quarters.
Now with that, let me turn it back to Greg.
Thanks, Chris. That concludes our prepared remarks. For the Q&A, we ask that you each ask only 1 question so we can include more participants. Operator, we can begin the Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] And the first question will come from Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley.
2. Question Answer
And thanks for the comments at the end on the press conference from last week. I wanted to ask a question about that conference. There was a comment made about scrutinizing pricing in the credit bureau industry. And I was hoping you could just maybe talk about you've already sort of provided the $0.99 down from a higher like the $4 level you were originally talking about.
And so I guess what are the areas, maybe in particular, on pricing that investors should be thinking of are maybe under scrutiny?
Well, Tony, and thank you for the question. It's an important question. And going back to that press conference from last week, I mean, well, first of all, we're just really excited to see the momentum at the FHFA. And in the GSEs for accepting Vantage 4.0 and the progress in completing the LLPAs and the pricing guides generally.
We see strong demand in the market. And so I think you'll begin to see some rapid adoption of that. Yes, we're not entirely clear on what Director Pulte was referring to in his comments. We are following up to try to get clarity on those I think there's a lot of speculation that it could be a reference to the Tri-Merge. And look, I think we've been pretty clear in recent years about the importance of the tri-merge in underpinning the safety and soundness of the mortgage market in the U.S. and ensuring that the potential pool of mortgage applicants that are scored accurately and qualify for mortgages is as substantial as it can be while also accurately assessing the risk that lenders are undertaking that will eventually be passed on to the GSEs and to investors.
I mean, in short, the rationale for the tri-merge is that it drives the efficacy of underwriting and financial inclusion because you're getting full access to all of the data that's available for diligence. And I think sometimes, discussions about changing from the tri-merge don't appreciate that credit bureau data is not a constant across the 3 bureaus. We have different furnitures. There have been new lending types that have emerged in recent periods like fintech, financial innovation like NPL and now the bureaus are actively developing alternative data like rental and utility and others, our files have diverged even more. And so using data inconsistently or excluding a report means you'll either be mispricing risk or lowering access for creditworthy borrowers or lowering the hurdles for potential mortgage fraudsters.
So we firmly believe Tri-Merge is the gold standard. It's deeply embedded in mortgage underwriting processes. The industry is already digesting a good degree of change, whether it's the early assessment program, and most recently, score competition, which is terrific. And I think this would be an even more substantial change at a time when stability is particularly important as this administration contemplates the IPO of the GSEs. And I think we got to remember that we charge $10 to $12 per report. That is a fraction of closing costs. It's less than 1%. And by pulling all 3 reports, you optimize across all the dimensions of the mortgage process. you can score the largest number of consumers and qualify the largest proportion for homeownership, you mitigate risk, you ensure accurate pricing and you minimize the risk to taxpayers via the GSEs.
And ultimately, you ensure that investors who are buying these assets once securitized fully understand the risk management process from which they were generated. So look, we -- look, I know from my own discussion some last week, there's a lot of support in the industry for the tri-merge whether it's legislators or regulators or investors, I think they understand the value of maximizing the diligence on this. So we'll just have to wait and see. And obviously, -- we look forward to further discussions with the director with the FHFA. I think goodness always comes from that, and we would certainly welcome it.
The next question will come from Andrew Steinerman from JPMorgan.
My question is on India. Looking back to the Analyst Day recently, transient outlined to double-digit revenue growth, organic revenue growth profile longer term for TransUnion India. How long would it take to get to that cadence? And what needs to change to get there?
Well, thanks for the question, Andrew. India is a great part of the TransUnion story, and we're super pleased that we own that asset, and it's a wonderful market and a growing economy. But it's an economy that's had a variety of macroeconomics and also regulatory shock in recent years, some of which were exacerbated by the conflict with our and in Middle East and rising energy prices and the like. I think despite that, we have seen some stabilization for consumer lending volume and commercial lending volume, which is helpful. And we're also growing through some kind of onetime exceptional and anomalous stuff. And so we did okay against our guidance in the first quarter. And we believe we now, with this foundation of stability are going to pivot back toward growth and overall, we think India will deliver mid-single-digit growth over 2026. And and hopefully, that gets us back to sustained low double-digit growth and beyond as the economics and the political environment inside should stabilize there. I mean the regulatory environment, not the political environment.
And the next question is from Andrew Nicholas from William Blair.
Chris, in your prepared remarks, I think you made the comment that most of your customers are still pretty early in their AI journey. And so I was hoping you could flesh that out a little bit more. What are you kind of seeing in terms of pace of adoption what's a reasonable time line for some of your customers to get a little bit more ready on that front? And any comments on what would be kind of slowing that or expectations for adoption there?
Yes. Thanks, Andrew. Well, look, I would just -- stepping back, I would say, societally and economically, we're still in the very early innings of AI adoption. I think you've got certain sectors of the economy where the adoption is fairly deep like software development, if you will. Those are the guys that created it. So it's not surprising that they are deeply applying it to their work first. And then I think you've got kind of mass experimentation going on just about everywhere else. I think you're going to see that accelerate as people understand the technology more deeply and its potential across all types of business processes and functions. And if you even here at TransUnion, I mean our developers have been using it for a while. They are dramatically more productive. It's not order of magnitude, productivity increases yet, but it's solid. 30% plus productivity kind of ranging depending on the nature of the development activity. And frankly, it really helped us accelerate the delivery of the OneTru platform and the migration of our products and our legacy technology onto that platform. At the -- at a recent Investor Day, which you attended, you would have seen the true true analytics orchestrator. That is 1 of the most potent applications of AI that we have here at TransUnion, we're using it across our data and analytics organization. We're seeing 2 to 3x productivity improvement that's allowing us to build more models more frequently with greater accuracy than we could previously. And all of the internal use is designed to ready the application, the agent for licensing and usage independently by our clients, which is what I was referring to in my prepared remarks. So look, we're very much in the early innings. But I don't think there's really anything that's going to slow this down. I think the productivity potential and the potential to lower the cost of things that today are very difficult but can become substantially more cost-effective and thus can be consumed in greater quantities, that's what I see happening going forward.
And the next question will come from Jeff Mueler from Baird.
On the updated pricing guidelines and dedicated Vantage LLPA grid. I guess just have they been communicated to the 21 initially approved lenders? Have you seen them -- if so, any perspective you can provide on what they look like? If not, just when do you expect them, given that it sounds like they're finalized and how important do you think they are to the share shift that you expect?
Yes. Now I'll remind you that for our guidance purposes this year, we didn't assume any share shift. We viewed this year as 1 of learning experimentation and transition. And we're not clear on exactly which lenders are in the initial cohort of 21 and we're not clear on whether the FHFA has communicated the LLPAs to all of them. We know from discussions with the FHFA staff and also from the CEO of Vantage score that the guides are complete and that they're in dialogue with the firms that are in this initial cohort, but I'm not sure about the time frame for public release. mean some of these questions, they just simply have to be answered by the FHFA. But I think the director was very clear and forceful and enthusiastic that they're ready to go they're ready to scale, and he's really excited to push that forward and get competition going.
And the next question will come from Faiza Alwy from Deutsche Bank.
I wanted to ask about the contribution of noncredit products to your growth in financial services, particularly outside of of mortgage and sort of what the traction has been there? And relatedly, if you could touch on the -- you alluded to some macro uncertainty likely related to the conflict and that you could absorb a reasonable level of market softening within the guidance range. So I was hoping you could double-click on that because I'm assuming to the extent there is softening, it would impact more of your credit growth.
Let me pull back to lens a little bit and just kind of characterize this first quarter. I mean, obviously, we're off to a good start. We're nicely ahead of expectations, and we're well positioned to deliver a third straight year of high single-digit revenue growth, low double-digit profit flow-through and low to mid double-digit EPS. The strength is really coming out of the U.S. right now. A lot of strength in mortgage, which I know Todd will double click on in the call. Consumer lending also very strong in auto and card off to very solid starts as well. So we're very pleased with that.
On the emerging market side, we're right on our plan. This is how we modeled revenue growth for the course of the year. This is a solid start at 6%, and it does position us to achieve our plan of high single digit for the full year. Now obviously, with the conflict in Iran, there are new uncertainties and new pressures on the cost of energy and thus inflation and thus potentially interest rates as well. In February, the 10-year got down to about 4%. The 30-year mortgage was around $6 million -- we got a little disproportionate volume bump because refi was reactivated. That was fairly short-lived, and then we kind of reverted back to the previous levels of volume, which I'll remind you are almost represent a floor now for ongoing mortgage natural purchase activity in the U.S. But -- we like to have a conservative guide, particularly in the early part of the year. We point investors to the high end of the guide. Our goal is to hit the high end and exceed the high end we have a reasonable level of contingency to achieve that, which we will hopefully release throughout performance over the course of the year.
And given this heightened geopolitical risk, we just thought it prudent not to flow through the revenue and the profit at this point. Another thing to be very clear on, though, is that through really the beginning of this week, our volumes across all of our credit categories are steady. So we're not seeing really any negative impact on any type of loan volumes at this point. And if we maintain this level of stability and kind of volumes, we would fully expect to deliver at or above the high end of the guidance over the course of the year. This kind of stability and performance, it's also there on the subprime side, drilling into consumer lending, which had a very strong 13% growth rate in the quarter. We've been looking at the level of delinquencies there amongst subprime borrowers. They're holding up exactly as you would expect, solid underwriting practices, small loan amounts, good controls, FinTech players, accelerating their use of alternative data to fully understand risk and so while all of the players in this space expanded their credit box a bit last year and again in the first quarter, the delinquencies are solid. And so we're not really seeing anything problematic at this point.
Faiza, I'm going to go back. This is Todd, to the beginning of your question as it pertains to contribution of noncredit to financial services. So Chris just gave you all the details about what we saw in Financial Services and excluding mortgage, we continue to see stable volumes. But the diversification of our products, we had a couple of three, what I would consider to be outperformers. First, the TruIQ analytics platform continues to perform well within financial services as well as alternative data and then our trusted call solutions has been a winner with our financial services customers as well.
And our next question will be from Manav Patnaik from Barclays.
Yes, I guess I just wanted to follow up on the second part of that. Chris, you talked about absorbed a reasonable level of market softening within the guidance range. I was just hoping you could put some parameters on that? Like what is the low end of the range, I guess, imply from some of the volume trends you're seeing today?
So Manav, I'll take that one. Thanks for the question. So I think what -- if you listen back to the prepared remarks, we just continue to see stability within our volumes. And we're happy to print a very solid Q1, where organic constant currency, excluding the FICO mortgage royalty was 7%. But for all the reasons that Chris just went through geopolitically, we just felt it was the right move to not raise the guidance for the beat that we had in Q1.
So in essence, what happens, then it's just math. When we look at the growth rates for the rest of the year by us printing a 7 and then maintaining the organic constant currency growth rates, we end up for the full year at a 6% rate. And then when you look at it for the second quarter in the guide, it's also 6% at the high end, which is implying the second half is 5%. So if you believe, which we do, that volumes continue to be stable, we orient you towards the high end of our guidance, that should mean if things stay stable, we should beat in the subsequent quarters. In the event that we don't, I think you'd see that we've built some cushion here and based on keeping the organic constant currency rates.
So there is some push in there. But then the range itself at the low end would provide some cover for us. So we're very comfortable with the guidance that we're providing this morning.
Yes. And Manav, as you know, these past 3 years, we've really prioritized stable and consistent delivery at the high end or above in our guidance. That was certainly our posture going into 2026. And just given the uncertainty and given the outperformance, we thought it would be prudent to add a bit more contingency on the revenue and the profit side. And we did it again out of an abundance of caution, not because we're seeing any negativity in our volumes at this point.
And the next question will be from Ashish Sabadra from RBC.
I just wanted to better understand if the Iran conflict is having any impact on the international markets. I was just wondering if you could provide some any color on your conversations with customers or if you've seen any trends softening in those international markets?
Yes. So I think we've definitely covered our views on the U.S. market, and we'll leave that on the international side, yes, there has -- there is more exposure to rising energy prices in the international market.
There's been some exposure into India. But early on, the Trump administration is allowing India to purchase Russian oil, which is helping offset some of those inflationary pressures. In the Philippines, which is a great part of our business, but a small part of our business, I think things are particularly difficult. They're highly dependent on imported energy. And there's been a considerable run-up in the prices. And the government there is almost you're running a coved like playbook with energy subsidies going out to consumers and the like. And that was part of the reason why we had a difficult quarter in Asia Pacific although, frankly, the primary driver is just the end of the onetime analytics work that we were doing in Hong Kong to prepare for this transition to the MCRA. We think that's kind of finished and out of the system now. And so the comps improve and the performance is already stabilizing there. But I think that's some flavor for where we're seeing some energy impact elsewhere in our portfolio. Obviously, the U.K. and Europe has more exposure, and we've got a great business in the U.K.
We think we're performing really well there competitively. And again, it was another quarter of high single-digit growth.
And our next question will come from Kelsey Zhu from Autonomous.
Could you maybe talk a little bit more about your expectation around VantageScore market share gains and future pricing policy in the mortgage vertical over the medium term? More specifically, Cycle 100's latest pricing model is $0.99 upfront and then $65 at closing. I was wondering if VantageScore pricing could adopt a similar framework of lower cost upfront and then the success via closing? Or is that not something that you're considering?
Yes. So thanks for the question. Obviously, in terms of the pricing model and the pricing levels, there's a lot of options in the medium term. I think TransUnion's position, and I see this reflected in the behavior of our competitors as well, is we just need to get this started, right? We've been talking about price competition since 2006 when the bureaus came together to form the VantageScore.
Finally, we've got a regulator that was willing to push this and make it happen. And we have very attractive pricing at roughly $1 per score with no tail, no success fee attached to it, which is which is important to note. And I think in terms of pricing and model, it depends on your perspective and what you're trying to accomplish. The goal of the administration, the goal of FHFA is to reduce borrowing costs and therefore, help home affordability and charging $65 for the score as opposed to just buying at 1 time for $1, that's a material price difference, right? And so we're just focused on the introduction. We're focused on the transition, and we're focused on share gain. But we acknowledge that downstream, we have a lot of optionality. But in the meantime, let's just continue to plow forward here. It's a more modern score, Vantage 4.0. It rests upon a broader foundation of trended credit information as well as alternative data. It's been 2 decades in the making. And we're just excited that competition is here and the playing field is leveled and we're excited to get after it.
The next question will come from Jason Haas from Wells Fargo.
Just wanted to follow up on the strength in mortgage. Can you just talk about what drove the strength there outside of mortgage -- or outside of the FICO score?
Sure. Jason, it's Todd. I'll take that one. So as you probably recall, in the first quarter, we guided for a modest increase in inquiries and 35% growth for mortgage revenues. And we ended up posting 7% increase in inquiries and 50% growth. So the outperformance that we saw primarily pertained to volumes.
And Chris spoke to that earlier. In particular, in late February, when the 30-year mortgage rate dipped below 6%, we saw a pretty significant increase in volumes. But as I'm sure you're aware, with the conflict in Iran. We saw an increase pretty immediately in early March of the 10-year treasury and thus, the 30-year mortgage went back up and those volumes dropped back to previous levels. So the outperformance is primarily just related to that dynamic that I articulated. I would say that the pricing assumptions that we had assumed are pretty much held. So there are not much noise there.
Other thing I'd highlight as well is that when you think about these moves in interest rates, you see how a drop in interest rate had such a significant increase in a short period of time. If rates were to go up, let's argue the opposite way, it would be a modest negative because we're already near the floor of activity when we're talking about volumes that we haven't seen since the mid-'90s.
But when you go the other way and you see a 25 basis point drop it's pretty significant, what the opportunities would be from a volume perspective, in particular, the ReFi population. And we included some slides in the appendix of today's materials. And you can get a sense on one of those slides as to just the population of consumers that would be eligible to ReFi. So the opportunity there is pretty significant.
However, we're not there yet, right? So when you look at the guidance for the rest of the year, for the second quarter and for 2026 for the full year, we're calling for inquiries to be down mid-single digits. And again, upside would come if we just see that a little bit of move on the interest rates.
Yes. And I think another element of the mortgage outperformance is that on the prequalification side and on the early assessment side, the volumes that we're experiencing have been favorable to our guidance assumptions. And look, we are solidly into the third year of the early assessment program from the GSEs and just changes in mortgage prequalification practices.
And I think it's worth noting that, I mean, look, when you think about tri-merge and potential changes to the system, our data gets consumed primarily because the market participants want to fully understand risk and they want to optimize price. And that particularly matters if you're a lender and you're going to sell on certain mortgages to the GSEs because variances in credit scores per the LPAs can have a material variation in what you can realize for those loans.
And so even though in theory, you only have to pull 1 credit report during the prequalification process. We see the industry settling into somewhere between 2 and 3. There are still a lot of players that are pulling 3, and there's a number of players that are increasing the number of poles they do for mortgage because really understanding the risk and optimizing around price matters a lot to their economics and the relative cost of a credit report is small.
Our final question today will come from Scott Wurtzel from Wolfe Research.
Just wanted to ask on TCS I'm wondering if you can unpack some of the drivers of the growth that you saw during the quarter. And just as a kind of related follow-up, I know there's sort of the trusted messaging opportunity as well down the line, if you can talk about sort of your expectations for a time line in terms of productizing that and when we can see that start to contribute to growth.
Great, Scott. So another really strong quarter for trusted call solutions, kind of a [indiscernible] component of our fraud mitigation services. And we think we're positioned for another really strong year there. It is a unique and differentiated offering. It's a very durable offering. And I mean I think you just it underscores that even though we have been in this era of digital commerce analog commerce over the phone is still really important to ensuring the authentication and the safety of various transactions. And we want to extend that to the tech side of things.
Increasingly, there's fraud in the SMS channel in the text channels generally and that's why we bought the mobile division of real networks. They've got some great underlying technology. We think it will take us about a year to complete the integration and the productization of that technology. But then it is the perfect complement to all of the business that we've generated and all the market penetration that we've got there.
And I think going forward, just the combination of authentication over the phone and over the text combined with all of our digital device behavioral and reputational assets is kind of an unbeatable combination in the fraud space.
And I just want to add some numbers and remind you what we presented at Investor Day pertaining to trusted call solutions. So this was a $27 million product for us in 2021. At the time of the Neustar acquisition, this year, we are expecting it to be a $200 million product at the end of 2026. And in 2028, we expect that to be a $300 million product.
All right. Chris, Todd, I think that's a good place to end. Everyone, thanks for the time today, and have a great rest of your day. Thank you.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
TransUnion — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
TransUnion — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Q1-Beat: Starkes Umsatz- und EPS-Wachstum, Guidance bestätigt; AI-Einsatz, VantageScore‑Momentum und Mexico-Akquisition prägen die Story.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: +14% reported, +11% organisch (constant currency); exklusive FICO Hypotheken‑Royalties organisch +7%
- Regionen: USA +14% organisch, International gesamt flach; UK +7%, Kanada +9%, Indien -5%
- Profitabilität: Adjusted EBITDA-Marge 35,2% (−100 Basispunkte YoY); Adj. EBITDA und EPS über Guidancestand
- EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS $1,18 (+12% YoY)
- Bilanz & Kapital: Nettoverschuldung $5,6 Mrd., Cash $733 Mio., Leverage 2,8x; $25 Mio. Aktienrückkäufe YTD
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- AI-Strategie: KI (künstliche Intelligenz) soll Daten‑Nachfrage steigern und Produktinnovationen beschleunigen; OneTru-Plattform und AI‑Produkte (TruIQ Orchestrator, Audience‑Produkte, Model Factory) sollen Datenkonsum erhöhen
- Marktposition & Produkte: Schnelles Wachstum bei Trusted Call, TruIQ, Identitäts- und Fraud‑Modellen; Fraud‑Modelle 2–3x schneller, deutlicher Pipeline‑Aufbau
- M&A & Kapitalallokation: Übernahme von TransUnion Mexico (Konsolidierung erhöht Guidance am oberen Ende), Zukauf Mobile‑Messaging stärkt Trusted‑Messaging; Fokus auf Schuldenabbau und steigende Rückkäufe
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Q2: Umsatz $1,271–1,283 Mrd. (+12–13%); organisch 8–9% (5–6% ex FICO); Adj. EBITDA $439–445 Mio.; Adj. EPS $1,13–1,15
- Full‑Year 2026: Umsatz $5,10–5,135 Mrd. (+11–12%); organisch 8–9% (5–6% ex FICO); Adj. EBITDA $1,796–1,816 Mrd.; Adj. EPS $4,68–4,75
- Risiken & Annahmen: Guidance beibeh./konservativ trotz Q1‑Beat wegen geopolitischer Unsicherheit (Iran) und Volatilität bei Hypothekenvolumina; FICO‑Royalties und Akquisitionen dämpfen Margen kurzfristig
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Preisaufsicht & Tri‑Merge: Diskussionen mit FHFA über Pricing‑Scrutiny und mögliche Änderungen am Tri‑Merge; Management verteidigt Tri‑Merge als Underwriting‑Standard
- AI‑Adoption: Viele Kunden noch in frühen AI‑Phasen; TransUnion sieht produktive interne Effizienzgewinne (30%+) und erwartet beschleunigte Kundenintegration
- Regionale Risiken: Nachfrage in Indien & APAC Thema; kurzfristige Volatilität durch Energiepreise/Geopolitik, aber mittelfristig Erholung erwartet
⚡ Bottom Line
TransUnion lieferte ein starkes Q1 mit Umsatz- und EPS‑Beat, bestätigt aber eine konservative Jahres‑Guidance. KI‑gestützte Produkte, Trusted‑Call/Messaging sowie die Mexico‑Akquisition stützen Wachstum; kurzfristig bleiben Hypothekenzyklen und geopolitische Risiken die Hauptrisiken. Aktionäre profitieren von organischem Momentum, aktiver Kapitalrückgabe und klarer Profitabilitäts‑Roadmap.
TransUnion — RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Institutions Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Sabadra, and I cover information services companies at RBC Capital Markets. We are really excited to host Chris, CEO of TransUnion; and Todd, CFO of TransUnion. Thanks again for giving us this opportunity.
Our pleasure. Thank you.
What a great presentation yesterday at the Investor Day. But before we go on to the Investor Day and talk about your midterm targets, I wanted to first level set on the state of consumer, like the #1 question that we get from investors is around the state of consumer credit, state of consumer lending. You obviously have a unique lens into it with everything that's going on, higher oil prices. How do you think about what's going on with consumer credit and consumer lending?
Yes, great place to start, right, in the foundation of current market dynamics. Let's separate out the oil price portion of that question because clearly, that's developing news, if you will. But look, the state of the consumer has been consistent and strong for a couple of years now. And we've had stable lending volumes that have resulted from that. And if you look to the bank stocks, so many of our clients, they've had stable delinquencies in their portfolios and improving origination volumes in almost every lending class. And in particular, consumer lending has been resurgent over the past couple of years as fintech companies have gotten consistent access to the capital markets and have kind of emerged from that deep freeze state that they were in, in '22 and '23 after the spike in inflation.
And in interest rates. Now there's a lot of talk about a K-shaped recovery. I believe that's correct. And there's continued pressure for lower income and higher-risk consumers. But again, it hasn't translated into a deterioration in loan book performance or a loss of appetite for borrowing amongst those consumers, right? And that's part of what I think has helped support loan volumes in the lending system. We've had 2 good years of reasonable volume growth and really good financial performance as a result of it. We outlined our guide just a few weeks back now, although things have been moving pretty quickly.
And the volume conditions and overall market dynamics we've experienced thus far in the first quarter have been very consistent to delivering against those. But now we have a war in the Middle East and potentially constrained oil supply and with a whole series of knock-on economic effects depending on the scenario you believe. And I think it's very fluid. We don't have any particular special insight into what may happen, of course. But I would just say that our economy has shown a tremendous resilience. The 10-year rates are holding up nicely. Volume is good, and we're just going to have to see what develops.
I'd also separate the question about how current geopolitical events are translating into macro changes versus just the intrinsic value of the business that we have created with 4 years of transformational investments at TransUnion. You saw at Investor Day. Yesterday, we talked about how we can now compete across more product categories and more geographies than we have ever been able to do before. We have continued to invest heavily in vertical domain expertise to tailor our solutions. We have built several global platforms to underpin our business, our expanded scope that is going to help us more rapidly diffuse our products across markets around the world and scale our growth with higher profit flow-through than ever before.
And like you and I were talking before we started this conversation, the last 5 years have been pretty bumpy lots of bumps in the road. That's the only kind of consistent factor that we're experiencing. And I think what we're showing is that we have real revenue durability in margin and overall financial durability because of the diversification that we've built, product, geographic, vertical, et cetera. And I would expect that to continue to perform well.
That's great. That's very helpful color. And that's a great segue into the next question around your midterm guidance. Again, as you said, very strong delivery over the last 2 years and your midterm guidance of high single-digit revenue growth, seems very consistent with what you've delivered over the last 2 years. But I was just wondering if you think about what are your upside and downside risk to that high single-digit revenue growth. If you can talk about the key themes, but also then drill down into each of the solutions like credit, marketing and fraud as well as consumer solutions?
For sure. So let's open -- why don't we have Todd ground us into what is the guide, what's the thinking that went in the guide, and I'll provide some color commentary on the back end.
Yes. That sounds great. So thank you for the question. So our medium-term guide is assuming a continuation of the current trends that we're seeing in the market today. So relative stability in core U.S. lending markets would be the best example of that. And consistent with how we provide guidance of during -- at the beginning of the year. The medium-term guide is the same type of thought process goes into that meaning that what we believe that we have a high conviction of being able to deliver on is incorporated into that guide.
So if you think about how we guided 2026, we're -- that's the beginning of the year. And as the year goes, we want to orient our investors towards the high end of that guide. And if we beat we'll obviously then continue to raise the growth expectation. Similar thinking went into this medium-term framework as well, too. So -- and the framework also has got stability in volumes. But another important part is it's not a bet on any new innovation. It's what we've already got in market or about to come into market. So there's no bet on an upside on something to come. And as far as additional upside would be in our materials yesterday, in particular, there's a bridge that we had out there on our EPS upside. And the right-hand side of that slide, walks through what that upside would look like. And a good example of one would be as mortgage. And we actually put a bar on that slide, right?
And just simply assuming mortgage goes back to 2019 levels, not 2020 and 2021 when everybody was moving and buying houses and refinancing, but a more normalized period of time. That would mean a $1 of EPS if that happens. And recently, what we saw happen a couple of weeks ago before the geopolitical and war issues, we saw the 30-year ago below 6%, and we saw...
That's a big deal.
And that was a really big deal, right? And we saw volumes start to tick up. Home sales were announced yesterday. I'm sure all of you saw that. I mean there was an uptick in February. The mortgage rate was cited as one of the reasons. Unfortunately, it's back above 6%, but that threshold is important for consumers. So if we get back there, that will be an upside.
But the other upside is just other lending volumes within the U.S. I mean, when you look at auto of kind of flattish right now, choppy last year with tariffs, a lot of pull forward. There was an electronic vehicle credit that went away as pull forward there. So we're seeing kind of flattish volumes there. And card and banking, low single-digit type of growth. So again, kind of subdued would be the best way we would say that. So in the medium-term guide, that's another source of potential upside if there's a normalization in those particular line of businesses within financial services.
That's very helpful color. And maybe just a quick follow-up on that would be, can you just remind us how much is your exposure to fintech and what you're seeing on the FinTech side as well and in general from a lending perspective?
So fintechs, it's about $140 million of revenue. So if you think about that in the context of TransUnion's $4.5 billion last year, and we're guiding obviously a lot higher. It's relatively small, but it's a strong position, though that we have. And that is the line of business. It's performing really well. I exited last year with a double-digit, almost 20% growth rate. So that's a source of strength.
Yes. And really very strong. And like Todd said, and I'll echo this, the medium-term guidance is top of market. It's high single-digit revenue growth with low to mid-double-digit conversion into EPS, and we view that as an achievable baseline of growth, but lots of ways to win beyond that. And again, remember, Todd talked about it in mortgage, but it's true, every lending line of business in the U.S. is still below the long-term trend lines, even going back to a reasonable point like 2019, it's just mortgages far and away, furthest off of that long-term trend line.
So these are just like okay market conditions. And in these conditions, we have still been able to grow at exactly the same level that we're now forecasting as our baseline for the next 3 years. And again, importantly, the forecast in the guidance floor that we set for the next 3 year reflects the business as it is today. But as you know from Investor Day, we've invested to transform the business. We've got a next-generation platform that delivers all of our products, and we're converting customers to that platform very rapidly. And we hope and believe that, that's going to be a lever for outperformance. But I believe that's part of the conversation.
No, this is a good segue into my next question. I was going to ask you about the $500 million of innovation-led revenues over the next 3-year period. if you can talk about -- obviously, there was a lot of conversation about OneTru platform, some of your solutions, including TruAudience, TruIQ and TruValidate. How do I think about these solutions helping drive that $500 million in revenue? And if you can provide color on what's going to drive that? Is that increased wallet share versus new logo win? Any incremental color on those fronts?
Yes, good question. So let's frame it up. I mean if we were at a bank, supporting one of our customers, let's say, we run a monthly marketing campaign to acquire new customers. That's a vintage of growth, right? You get out there, you acquire those customers, you have certain expectations for what they're going to deliver for you economically. What you saw yesterday is we said based on the innovation that we're delivering on the OneTru platform, we are expecting $500 million based on new product growth. And that's encompassed in the guide, of course, but that's just that vintage, right? And now that we're on a platform, and we're no longer investing to build the platform, and we've unified all of our data across our 4 key product categories, credit, marketing, fraud and consumer enablement around our industry-leading identity, I would expect that the rate of innovation in NPI will continue or grow, right?
So that's how you should think about that $500 million. It's not a onetime event. It's reflective of transitioning from a period where we were investing really heavily to transform the business and innovate all the acquisitions we made to restructure the portfolio to one where we're leveraging what we've built to innovate faster and to grow faster.
Yes, yes. And that came through very clearly at the Investor Day. So thanks for those presentation. Maybe switching gears a bit and just talking about VantageScore and FHFA. Yesterday, you made a comment around one of the GSEs doing a pilot and securitizing the portfolio using VantageScore. I was wondering if you could unpack that a little bit. One of the questions that we've gotten from investors was, was this an exclusive VantageScore? Was it both VantageScore and FICO? Anything you can share on the pricing of that securitized portfolio? Or any kind of feedback that you received that they might have received for that securitization? Any color that you can provide on that front?
Yes. Unfortunately, the color I can provide is fairly limited, and this was something done internally by one of the GSEs that we learned about fairly recently. And so we look at this -- and I think it was a very modest pilot. But I mean, I think that obviously, introducing choice and scores and competition in a market as large and dynamic as U.S. mortgage is it's a considerable thing. And we look at it as essentially the GSEs running water through the pipes -- before more volume more to come. But nonetheless, an encouraging step forward in the adoption and the implementation of a competing score, which we firmly believe the market needs. There's been an inadvertent lack of choice in this market for 30 years. There is a more modern score available, Vantage 4.0. It is more effective because it leverages trended credit data going back in our case, 2.5 years, and that's the longest look back in the industry, but you can also include rental trades, utility trades, other data sets that have been proven to be additive to the predictiveness of the performance of borrowing, right?
So we want to get that out in the market. It will make the U.S. credit market or mortgage market larger. It grows the addressable market. It will be more precise in terms of understanding and pricing risk. It will contribute overall to the safety and soundness of the market. And so look, we're excited. And that was part of our thinking behind lowering the price of Vantage from, in our case, $4 to $0.99 is simply -- this is a great opportunity to make an important structural change in the lending market, again, ushering in choice, ushering in price competition. It's also a chance for us to kind of reset the economics around the market to what we see in markets around the world, which is data is at the core of value and you have scores that provide some insights, some summary level insights of the underlying data. But the value is driven by data, not scores. And if you look around this planet in every market that this exists, it's data that is the premium price, not the score.
Now again, we have an anomaly in the U.S. mortgage market. It's time to correct the anomaly, and we're trying to eliminate obstacles to adoption. And as you saw, our competitors fast followed on that. And again, we price Vantage, we market Vantage entirely independently even though we are co-owners of the business that produces the VantageScore. But look, there's a lot of enthusiasm to get going with Vantage implementation in the U.S. mortgage market.
That's very helpful color. Talking about obstacle, one of the things that also we -- that investors are focused on is the LLPA matrix from FHFA. I was just wondering if there is any visibility on time line or any tentative time line for that matrix?
We don't have any special visibility when all the work that is -- has been undergoing. And I think lots of good -- I think the FHFA has lots of good work to grease the skids and enable competition. When exactly they're going to complete it. I don't know. I hope it's relatively soon. I do know that TransUnion and frankly, each of the bureaus have been working with lots of lenders in the market to understand how they can use Vantage. And now Vantage, which is a more modern and predictive score as per GSE studies, don't just take my word for it, right? So it's a more modern and a more predictive score than the incumbent classic score. Lots of clients are interested in using it, and it's now 1/10 of the price. So I feel like the stars are aligned for share adoption, and we're ready to go.
That's very helpful color. One last final question on FHFA would be just any thoughts around tri-merge to bi-merge. Is that even something that FHFA considering?
Look, I cannot speak for the FHFA. I have periodic interactions. What I do know is this, from the first time I met the current director, Director Pulte, he was laser-focused on the cost of originating mortgages as a prime area for improving affordability and affordability in housing for U.S. consumers. You've heard the President talk about it. Affordability is all over Washington, right? And so this is an important initiative. And I think this is that type of passion for the topic is why he has created this opportunity for score competition. Now pulling back from the FHFA and their particular views at this point because, again, I can't speak for them. What I can speak for is what the data tells us. So the first thing the data tells us is that in at least 25% of the cases, if you only pull 1 credit report, you will miss a trade line that exists for that consumer that would influence the score materially, right?
So whether it's 1 or it's 2 if you don't pull 3, you're diminishing signal and predictiveness and ultimately, the safety and soundness of mortgage origination and securitization. And as we've seen through different chapters in history, most recently, the great financial crisis, it's a bad idea to scrimp on due diligence, right? And pulling 3 bureau reports is the most comprehensive form of diligence. I think there's a tremendous amount of support for the tri-merge on Capitol Hill, in the treasury throughout the administration -- lots of voices get it, right? Now other voices were like, let's save some money because we're in a very low origination period in mortgage and people are hurting, but I say we save some money with some score competition. Let's get some of the option there. I think that is a much safer and sounder approach to it.
That's very helpful. Just switching gears on Gen AI which has been a key topic for the space. Obviously, the presentation yesterday, you really highlighted the proprietariness of the data, but I just want to see if you wanted to drill down further, talk about why -- how proprietary the credit and the alternative data is. One of the questions that we get is, can the cash flow financing or consumer permission data, could that disrupt any of the credit data or even on the marketing side, if you could also help address what makes this data so proprietary and the comprehensiveness of the data?
Okay. So there's a couple of dimensions to the question. And I want to be clear. The first would be one, how proprietary is the information that underpins marketing, credit and fraud and what's the risk of AI disruption? We've been focusing on credit first you said, what about cash flow? What about consumer contributed? Can that disrupt the dynamics okay. So here's the core dynamic and the foundation of the market. Credit information is large, proven at scale and relatively low price point for all of the predictive insight you get. And most loans in the U.S. are underwritten with that alone. You don't need to go to income. You don't need to go to cash flow, whatever. Now that said, if cash flow were available at scale and not episodically per consumer permission, it would be an attractive additive data asset. And the reason that credit is still growing as fast as it is after 50 years is because lenders are constantly looking for new data assets, to add to the core of credit and other information that they use in their secret sauce IP to find an origination advantage.
They're out there looking for data that helps them spot opportunity in the marketplace, price it correctly and acquire it. So we view alternative data innovation broadly and cash flow would be a subset of that. It's a great positive for our business, which is why we and all the bureaus have been pursuing alternative data. So I think it's very exciting.
The second thing I would talk about is marketing and fraud. So before I do just, the defensibility of credit, as I've said many times at this point, you've got to go to thousands and thousands of different institutions and negotiate contributory relationships in order to get access to credit.
Not to mention that it's also PII.
There's lots of PII with credit too, and that is like difficult to handle. You have to be very careful. There's a ton of regulation around who can acquire that information and for what purposes, but also which customers can actually use the information. And we're the intermediary responsible for validating that every client has a legitimate credential commercial use case and monitoring their utilization, which we do in a whole variety of ways and consistently recredentialing thousands and thus tens of thousands of customers in the U.S. it takes a lot of work and a lot of investment. And if you mess up, well, regulators and trial lawyers have a lot to say about that, right? So there's a lot of reasons why credit data is not going to get loaded into ChatGPT so we can all find out our neighbor's credit score, right? There are 100 and other privacy-related reasons.
And the question turns to marketing. Well, as you saw yesterday, unbundling what is marketing. In our case, it's proprietary data and analytics that we're bringing to bear to make every marketing campaign more efficient. We're not in creative. We don't buy and sell media. We don't do that. We're like the old BASF commercial. We don't produce the thing. We make the thing better. That's what we're doing with data and analytics underpinning marketing. What are those data and the analytics? Well, first, we're leveraging our PII, all of the identifying information that we have about consumers, whether it be terrestrial or digital. And as we outlined at Investor Day, and you can go look at the slides, it's very powerful, it's industry-leading. It's not only the credit information. It's all the public records in the U.S. It's one of the world's largest device reputational networks and it is the single largest, most authoritative phone record in existence, and it's unique to us.
And then we layer on lots and lots of other identity. So the first step in the marketing campaign is, well, who are all these people? How can I identify them from all of the different fragments of information? How can I make sure that their name address, phone number, e-mail, IP, device, et cetera, is as enriched and current as it can possibly be. That's derived from a highly proprietary data source. That's one.
Then you pivot into audiences. Now there are many different audience providers. It is much less proprietary. But because of AI, we're starting to manufacture AI-driven new audiences that the audience is created, it's derived from this range of proprietary information that we have, and it's more tailored and specific and performant than a lot of what's out there. But if you come to TransUnion, we have a capability that is essentially a retail application where every audience provider parks their data, and we have an analytic layer that helps clients decide which one to use. So we're kind of agnostic on the audience. We're going to make retailer margins on that part of our business.
We did have broad digital connections to every publisher, walled garden, et cetera, in the digital advertising ecosystem that is hard and expensive to create. Those are one-on-one deals and one-on-one systems integrations and they have to be maintained. But there's a final level of proprietary data, which is how do we measure the effectiveness of these marketing campaigns. How do we know, did the consumer see my ad? Did they interact with it? What do they do next? Well, because we represent so many companies, so many brands which collectively represents so many billions of dollars of marketing spend, we've been able to negotiate with hundreds and hundreds of players across the advertising ecosystem to share marketing performance information with us. And so this entire fabric of marketing performance information that flows to us is the result of those relationships of all that brand spend that we have, and it's a network effect.
And if you -- look, can somebody go out and build another consortium? Sure, it is theoretically possible. But there's only a handful of these things because it's not really economically feasible. And AI doesn't make it any easier to accomplish that. So again, it's a highly defensible series of products. Now on the fraud side, so many different types of fraud signals are pouring in from our different point solutions, and we aggregate them all in a common data and analytic layer, that layer is OneTru. And again, hundreds of customers around the planet are sharing what they're experiencing with various devices, interacting with them from an e-commerce side. And now also, what are they experiencing over the phone in their call centers. So again, a very broad consortium of data being contributed uniquely to us creates the value in the asset.
And AI doesn't help you create those relationships. And remember, TransUnion is not standing still with regard to the application of AI. And none of the players are in info services, right? So we want to harness the potential to better activate this information in ways that help us, well, one, serve our clients better than we've ever been able to service them before, but also leverage the data to generate insights and then program agents that do the work that is currently done either by our clients or by software suppliers upstream from the markets that we currently compete in. So I think the market reaction to AI has been AI scary as opposed to AI, exciting. And I know it's exciting for us. I mean today, the typical lender refreshes their lending model every 2 to 3 years. Why? It's hard. It's hard to pull all that data together. It's hard to have all the smart people to do the analytics. Well, with AI, we can refresh those models continuously.
So if you're a lender and you're only refreshing your lending model every 2 years, how well will you compete in a future where your competitors are doing it on a weekly basis. We can enable that, and we can do it across credit, fraud, marketing, et cetera.
That was very helpful color. We are at the top of 30 minutes. I really appreciate that. Thank you. Thanks a lot.
Thank you.
Thanks a lot, Chris. This was very helpful, very insightful.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
TransUnion — RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Institutions Conference 2026
TransUnion — Analyst/Investor Day - TransUnion
1. Management Discussion
All right. I already see notes being furiously taken, so I think we're ready to go. Good morning. Welcome. Nice to see so many familiar faces.
For those that don't know me, I'm Greg Bardi, and I lead Investor Relations here at TransUnion. On behalf of the executive leadership team, welcome to TransUnion's 2026 Investor Day. We have an excellent schedule for you all. Thank you for spending the next several hours with us.
The theme for the day is Innovation at Scale, Value that Endures. We spent a lot of time thinking about those 6 words over the last few months. And I hope by the end of the day, they resonate with you all.
I get the distinct pleasure of offering the forward-looking statement. I've been waiting to do this forever. With that out of the way, let's show what we really mean by Innovation at Scale, Value that Endures.
[Presentation]
Well, okay. Good morning, everyone. Good to see so many of you in the room, lots of familiar faces. Yes, so I really like that video. I think it captures the energy behind all of the work that we're going to highlight for you folks today. Thank you for joining us. We really appreciate it. It's been a while since we've done one of these, 4 years. And we appreciate your interest in understanding how we've been building TransUnion's future.
So by now, most of you know me. If not, I'm Chris Cartwright. I'm the President and CEO of TransUnion, and I have been for about 7 years now. And look, we're excited for today. This is our opportunity to show how our investments and our execution over these last 4 years have really enabled a new generation of innovation-led and very scalable growth for our business. So let's get into it.
So since our last time together, we have materially extended our competitive footprint and built some underlying capabilities that will enhance our revenue and our profitability. And more importantly, it positions us to thrive in an increasingly digital and AI-driven world. The program today is going to review these investments and our progress. And I hope that you come away understanding a few key issues.
So the first is that we've increased the scope of how and where we can compete significantly. We have many more relevant and proprietary solutions and data that we can offer in countries around the world. We've acquired these through M&A, also a lot of internal development. We've continued to extend into attractive geographies like the U.K. and most recently, Mexico, the [ Bureau of Mexico ] transaction closed 2 weeks ago, hallelujah, more than 20 years in the making, Veeva Mexico, but we're super excited. It's a great addition to the portfolio, and it makes us the leading bureau across North America. We've also added a ton of domain expertise. We continue to launch in new industry verticals and deepen our connection to the marketplace.
So second, underpinning all of this solutions and geographic expansion, we have built several global platforms that will help us scale and operate more profitably. We have a solutions delivery platform, which is OneTru. You saw it mentioned in the video.
We also have an operational platform that supports our business, both existing customers and managing consumer relationships across all of our various markets. And we built a global talent platform. And all of this will help expand our revenues and our profits but at higher margins than we were previously able.
The third point is that we're positioned to innovate faster and more meaningfully than we ever have. We've unified our data and identity assets, our data management and our analytic capabilities on OneTru, a single global AI-enabled cloud platform. And this platform is going to allow us to export our innovations across our markets, tapping their full potential and freeing local teams to engage more deeply with clients in the marketplace.
And our financial performance will strengthen as we roll out these products and platforms to each country in our portfolio. So over the next few years, we're going to grow revenue by offering a broader range of interrelated products across our markets, supported by these powerful underlying technologies. We're also going to drive savings as we standardize on our global platforms, creating value for customers and shareholders alike. And the combination of these improvements will help us drive more free cash flow to support ongoing investments in innovation, go-to-market strategies, debt repayment and, of course, share repurchases. So we are on the cusp of creating a value-creation flywheel.
Now before I move on, I want to share some thoughts on AI and its potential impact at TransUnion. Obviously, it's an issue that everybody is focused on, and we are, too. So AI is the most powerful and disruptive technology that we've encountered in generations, arguably ever. And no doubt, businesses will be at risk if they only aggregate accessible information at scale and then apply limited domain knowledge, analytics and reasoning.
Fortunately, that's not the way we do business. That's not our value proposition. TransUnion's data and solutions are based on information that is difficult to access. It's highly proprietary. It's challenging to monetize due to legal and regulatory restrictions, and there are significant penalties for noncompliance. But what AI will allow us to do is to lower our cost and boost our productivity. That's great. But I think more importantly, we're going to be able to activate our data and our clients' data in powerful ways that would not be possible without it.
So during these sessions this morning, we are going to show you demos of what's currently possible and what will be achievable when we combine our data and analytics with the power of AI. So I've given you an overview and outlined the ways in which we've transformed the business in these last 4 years. I want to reinforce, we think we are entering a next generation of innovation-led and very scalable growth.
So let's get into the transformation, what we thought and what we did and the value that we believe it's going to create. So 5 years ago, we sat back and we looked at the business that we had created. We had a couple of insights that guided our efforts. They remain key to the strategy today. The first was that our traditional approach of growing our credit services into new markets around the world led to product and operational redundancies over time. This increased our cost, and it made it harder to share innovations across markets.
So we've been around for more than 50 years. And over this period, we've extended into over 30 different countries around the world. And typically, we enter a market by partnering with a group of local banks. They bring the data and some minimum level of demand, but we bring our talent, our bureau know-how and of course, our technology. The resulting businesses run independently. Over time, their product and their operational technologies become localized and nonstandard, even though they're serving the same industries with similar data sets to meet the same needs. So the resulting portfolio is more a multi-domestic collection of independent units, not a cohesive global operation. And when we looked at this, we realized that if we adopted a unified global product and operations approach, we could create a lot of value.
So the second insight that guided the strategy was that our data and our identity resolution would enable us to expand into marketing and into fraud prevention more deeply. And that together with our consumer enablement products, this group of services would more effectively meet the clients' broader commercial needs, right? So not just focused on credit, but understand what they're trying to accomplish as a business more broadly and deliver the data and the know-how to help them achieve it.
In short, we realized that we could provide clients with an integrated suite of these complementary solutions. But to achieve this, we needed to rearchitect the business around a strategy of global scale. So we implemented what we call a global operating model. And in it, functions that need to be local, stay local, such as revenue-producing go-to-market roles, client support, et cetera. But functions where we're trying to achieve scale and reuse around common needs across the portfolio, areas such as technology or operations or product development, well, those became primarily reports to the global organization, and we established a leadership team to address that.
We also built global capability centers, or GCCs, to centralize work that doesn't really depend on local knowledge and can be managed centrally. These central hubs have helped us control our costs in recent years. But I think more importantly, they have evolved into innovation centers, and they are leading the development of our next-generation platforms currently.
So the next step in the transformation was to build best-in-class solutions in marketing, in fraud and doubling down in consumer. And we did a lot of M&A to restructure the portfolio in the late '21, '22 time frame. And that helped us bring in the things that we needed in order to be best-in-class in each of these areas.
As I said, we also invested in the product and operation platforms to give us global scale. These are a combination of standardized processes, technology and talent. And together, they create greater operational leverage in the business. So on the product side, we call this platform OneTru. On the operations side, it is TruOps. And today, they are live and supporting clients, and they will be highlighted over the course of the day.
We also invested in a much larger sales organization with deep expertise, particularly in these newer solutions where we needed sellers and business leaders that came from those markets and really understood those customers' needs and how they related to the variety of services that we are now providing.
So what I would say is this has been heads down hard work for 4 years now. But the transformation is now proven. It's complete. And we are now moving from an era of investing to build these capabilities to one of creating value through innovation and scaling.
So next, I want to talk about why we wanted to expand into these complementary markets. So here's the range of services that we're now offering and identity founded on our PII organizes them and is at the center. We gained a lot of insights into these market adjacencies, marketing and fraud after providing data and identity resolution to the competitors in those spaces for a lot of years.
Now individually, each of these markets is large, it's fast growing. They're profitable. And the data and services that we're providing in each, they are proprietary. There are material barriers to entry in each. But offered in combination, we are able to cross-sell and to bundle our services to clients. It helps us embed more deeply in their work and become a more meaningful partner and it also creates switching costs.
So we think our identity assets and our resolution capability give us a competitive advantage. We have built these up over years through M&A and internal development. It starts with our credit header information at the foundation. It's a great foundation upon which to organize data. We license it to a variety of external parties. You can also use it to corroborate the accuracy of a data set, and it's at the core of the platform.
The public records we obtained through our TLO acquisition some years ago, that further improves our PII, but it also helps us understand the consumer's stage of life. Marketing phone information came from the Neustar acquisition, device reputation and behavioral from the iovation deal. All of these together strengthen the identity. These are the core elements that create a really authoritative and unmatched identity asset.
And look, I want to be clear, we're the only company in the industry that can provide this range of credit, noncredit telephony and device information. So the identity data at the core is powerful and differentiated. But the AI algorithms that leverage this data to resolve identity, those are increasingly valuable in a digital and device-driven world where more of the work will take place through autonomous agents and the effectiveness of cookies is going to diminish over time.
There's also a feedback loop here, a bit of a network effect. When you provide marketing services or fraud services, there's a digital trail. There's some exhaust. This feeds back into the identity data further enriching it. So the example is if during a marketing campaign, a device gets flagged as suspicious, we share that with our fraud prevention services. And then if that same device shows up at a client, it can be flagged for additional review.
So let's talk about how our clients use all of these services. So over these past 4 years, we've gained a really deep understanding of how our customers' interconnected needs play out across these 4 solution categories. You see the work that they're trying to accomplish in the broad, we call this the jobs to be done in each solution area. And together, they really cover the needs and goals beyond just credit and analytics.
And so for a client to run their business successfully, they've got to start first by identifying the most valuable consumers that best align with whatever their strategy is. Well, that's credit information. That's alternative data to access a consumer's ability and their willingness to repay for a service. They then have to go acquire those customers efficiently and consistently. Well, this is where marketing comes in. Our identity, our activation, our measurement solutions, that's the next step in the process.
The transactions that result from those processes need to be authenticated. They got to protect themselves from fraud, and we can achieve that through a wide range of our authentication solutions, both online but also over the phone. And having fought hard to win these client relationships, they want to maximize the value of them over time. That's where the consumer enablement portion of the product line comes in.
So if you look at all of this work in a big company, there'll be a variety of folks responsible for it. It could be the Chief Risk Officer, a Chief Marketing Officer, a fraud operations leader. But the smaller the organization, the more likely that a single individual is juggling all of these roles. And with an integrated platform like OneTru, customers have a data-driven and orchestrated workflow platform that helps them operate with greater efficiency.
And all of these solutions are unified by our common identity across the categories. And that means there will be no mismatches between the consumer that the marketing department wants to target, the consumer that a fraud department deems as legitimate and the consumer that the credit risk team believes is qualified for a loan. That's kind of unique in this space, particularly when you're using multiple vendors that have identities of varying qualities. And the first effort is just to reconcile and make sure you're all talking about the same individual. And that's why we think identity is at the heart of everything we do. And so look, collectively now, after all of this transformation, these 4 areas form our field of play. This is where we compete, and this is what we've unified on our OneTru platform.
And look, we think the opportunity is substantial, right? The market for these solutions is very big. It's expanding at near double digits. We estimate that the serviceable market for TU is now over $50 billion and growing rapidly. And we finished last year at about $4.6 billion, right? So there's a lot of runway for growth here, particularly in marketing and fraud, where as you look around the world, we are a scale provider of these services. But in general, it's a fairly fragmented space. And given that we can bring the combination of credit marketing and fraud on a common platform, we think our scale advantages are going to allow us to grow pretty quickly.
You've seen that play out in the U.S. So here, we're comparing the mix of our product revenues between the U.S. and the international markets. If you look back 5 years ago in the U.S., we would have been highly weighted toward B2B credit. Well, through M&A and subsequent growth, it's now roughly an equal split. And that's because we have strong solutions. We've executed a sales playbook very effectively. I think in the second half of last year, you could really see the growthfulness of marketing and fraud. It started to equal and even surpass credit in some places. And now in the U.S., we compounded in the second half of the year, low double digits.
Internationally, today, the mix is very B2B credit-centric. And it can even be misleading because if you look at markets such as India, it's even more skewed there. Well, we think we can move the international business and make it look over time more diversified and thus durable like revenues coming out of the U.S. As I mentioned in the outset, it used to be very difficult to take a great product or a great idea and push it in markets around the world, independent tech stacks, right?
Well, now as we move countries onto the OneTru platform, they will suddenly have available to them the full range of our products, the best of our analytics and then their localized IP. So we can replicate and we can scale our innovations around the world much more easily than we could previously.
So let's dig into these global platforms and how they're going to help us scale. So we've talked a lot about OneTru. This is OneTru on a page, kind of as close as you can to representing all of this. And most of the functionality of OneTru is there in the circles in the center. So key to the strategy is integrating the data, the identity, the analytics and of course, our decisioning on this common platform, which, again, we can roll out to markets around the world because it's configurable and it's cloud native.
So let's talk about the functionality in OneTru and then we'll pivot to the business benefits. So OneTru is a fully enabled data management platform. At the core, around all of the data that we have globally are a series of functions starting with data management. This is where we collect, govern, process data for all of our solutions. It's important that you capture every raw data signal, whether it's ours, whether it's a customer or it's third-party contributed data. We securely store it. We consistently govern it. So our data scientists and our clients understand the provenance and understand that it is good and they can use it in their models, which again are highly regulated and governed.
Identity links all the data together. Analytics is where we build models and generate insights. And the delivery area is where we operationalize the data and push models to production. This helps our clients make better decisions. This is where we can model, launch and then test performance and iterate along with our clients.
It's also important to note that on the left-hand side, we can process any data. It doesn't have to be just TransUnion data. Clients can contribute all of their lending information, all their marketing intel. They can -- we can bring on third-party information. We can ingest and organize it all into OneTru and it becomes part of the analytics foundation.
We can also give our clients permissioned access to the platform. Now we've been using this platform internally, our 800 data scientists globally for some time. Now we're starting to collaborate with our clients, clients who rely on us to keep their models current, and they can all collaborate on the OneTru platform. And then all of this functional goodness flows upstream into the end-to-end product suites, be it credit marketing or fraud.
Now notably, there's an AI layer that rests on top of this. We have looked at all of the data. We've established with the AI folks call a semantic foundation, which means that OneTru understands the data that it manages. It understands its relationship between all of the different data elements and the business applications of that information. We've also created a customized internal knowledge graph so a user can find our data, figure out what it is, how it relates, how to build models based on it to solve their business problems.
And then we partner with a third party, Google Gemini in this case, on the LLM, the natural language translation layer that allows our users to talk to OneTru to ask it, what kind of data do you have within this time frame, what would be useful to conduct this kind of analysis, help me optimize my decision-making accordingly. So there's a lot of business benefits from the platform. Obviously, as we get more and more countries on it, we'll have more products to sell and more powerful ways to activate our data and our clients' data. It's also going to help us reduce our costs, right?
Today, we've got 27 independent tech stacks underpinning these 30-plus countries. We don't need that many technology stacks. This is a great opportunity to simplify, to unify and create scale. And given that the platform represents the broader range of work that our clients are trying to accomplish, it helps us do more for them to sell more, to bundle more, to penetrate the client more fully. So in summary, OneTru is our approach to accelerate innovation and really expand our solutions and create both revenue growth and greater scale worldwide.
It also has an internal counterpart, we call TruOps. Now we've got 27 tech stacks on the product side around the world. We have just as many on the operational side, technology that's been invested in over time to support existing customers, to fulfill their work requests to manage consumer disputes. Over the past 4 years, we have created a next generation of all of this operational technology. And it effectively addresses our requirements across the piece. It eliminates the duplication that we've got. So it streamlines these previously fragmented operational systems across regions into a unified globally consistent operating model. It's also going to reduce cost. We're standardizing our processes and TruOps delivers a better customer and consumer experience while also driving the productivity of our associates.
The last component of global scale is with these capability centers that I mentioned at the outset. So we've really expanded our workforces in our India-based, South Africa-based and Costa Rica GCCs. And we've evolved our approach to the GCCs. Today, they have a full management hierarchy. Frontline engineers are managed by product managers. There are business leaders. 40% of our global workforce is now based in one of these GCCs. And I think most importantly, 80% of the engineers and the data scientists that are working on our next-generation global platforms, they're in these capability centers. So these centers are not about simple wage arbitrage. They become our global innovation hubs, and they're helping us move faster and more effectively. Over this period, we've more than doubled the headcount, and we'll probably settle at about a 50-50 split.
So these are the 3 scaling platforms that underpin our broader scope of products and operation, and this is how we're going to grow more profitably. It's OneTru for solutions, TruOps for operations and of course, the GCCs. But it's not just about scale. OneTru is also a platform for innovation. And we think about the opportunity to innovate for our clients, in several levels, right, of increasing value add. The data is still the foundation of the business.
And when we talk to our clients and we survey them, what they care most about is, do you have unique, complete and current information around which we can make predictions and decisions about how we allocate our capital. So data is still king. We refer to that as the intelligence layer. That's where our data, our data science, our data architecture all comes together. And we're always looking to improve and expand what we have.
But we make that data accessible to our clients on the orchestration layer. Now that might be through narrow point solutions, of which we had many, many around the world after years of internal innovation and M&A that we've worked through and we've synthesized into more complete end-to-end workflow platforms. So this is how our clients can access our data to get their work done.
The last layer, we can call the activation layer. Now traditionally, that was the sales force and the customer success organization, taking our analytics and consultants, which we have 800 around the world, out to clients, helping them understand the data we've got and how they can use it to operate more productively.
But now we're entering this era of agentic AI. And what we're going to show you today is several ways in which we have created AI agents that automate the work that our clients traditionally did internally with their own teams. And these AI agents for us represent a new business opportunity. It's an expansion of the range of needs that we can serve. It's new TAM, it's new growth and it's new profit. And so later, when Mohamed, our Head of Solutions comes up and Venkat, my Head of Data and Technology, we're going to demo these agents, and we're going to get into more detail.
And of course, I'd be remiss if I didn't talk about AI and the moats that we have that protect our franchise. So a couple of ways to think about AI, how you're using it to improve your productivity, so internal applications and then how you can enable your services to compete more effectively.
So internally, we've been implementing AI to streamline operations. We are more productive in software development. The typical developer now is 25% to 30% more productive through the use of these gen AI tools. We're using it in consumer dispute resolution, where we have thousands of employees around the world who are servicing the needs of consumers. So far, we've got 20% left. I would say this is early innings in this internal productivity gain. There's a lot more opportunity there to lower our cost.
Some examples of how we're using it externally. Well, we've just launched a new fraud platform, which we call TruValidate. At the core of it is a model development capability that we're going to demo later. And the first model to come out of there is a credit washing model that identifies a new type of fraud. And using all of our data and our AI techniques, we've been able to boost the predictiveness of the model by almost 40%. We also created this natural language interface to all of our data that resides in OneTru.
So a client, data scientist, they don't know the range of what we offer. They don't understand how all of our data and data attributes relate to one another and how they can use them in their modeling to solve their business processes. Now they can talk to OneTru and they can go step by step. We can both educate them and we can cross-sell them on our broader data and analytic capabilities. And we're going to bring that to life in a demo. We've launched something called our analytics orchestrator in OneTru. You might have seen a press release that we did with Google earlier about that.
We're leveraging Gemini on the language translation side. But this is an AI assistant that helps data scientists translate a natural language query into a full analytic workflow. And it's a great example of how we're going to become dramatically more productive and be able to service our clients with more frequency and effectiveness than we could, if not for AI.
And look, AI raises some concerns for information services companies, but it's not the case for us. Our advantage lies in our proprietary consumer data that we collect from a wide range of sources. We operate under all types of legislation and regulation. Credit has the Fair Credit Reporting Act, marketing and public records, Gramm-Leach-Bliley, the Driver Privacy Protection Act. There's a lot of regulations and complying requires a ton of investment and a ton of discipline, even public records, while public are highly regulated and very difficult to aggregate at scale.
But what we've seen in the market is that AI increases the demand for high-quality, curated, regulated and auditable information that we offer. So ultimately, I think it's a growth opportunity for us because the effectiveness of AI is determined by the quality of the data that it learns from. And we've got terrific data, very high-quality data. And so I think this is an advantage, and it's really going to boost not just productivity but revenue growth.
And so I don't want to steal too much of Todd Cello's thunder, our CFO, will come up and kind of pull it all together in a financial expression at the end of the presentation. But earlier, I said that because of all these investments and some great execution these past 4 years, we think we're entering a new era of accelerated value creation, much faster innovation, but on a much more scalable tech and operational foundation. And this flywheel starts with industry-leading growth.
Over the past couple of years, the market has stabilized in the U.S. and the U.K. And you've seen us return to top-of-line organic revenue growth and market conditions that are still just kind of okay, right? All the lending volumes in the U.S. are still below the long-term trend line and mortgage is like way below the long-term trend line, which is why we focus on it. So there's a great opportunity for volume recovery.
But independent of volume recovery and independent of all this innovation that I've talked about, we're back compounding high single digits, even on our own, independent of including FICO mortgage scores and the price increases that can kind of inflate the top line growth.
But looking forward, there'll be more innovation, more revenue growth, and it will be more diversified geographically across products, leveraging AI, which means more durability in the revenue. The scaling components that I talked about, the technology modernization that OneTru and TruOps represents, we just delivered almost $100 million in tech savings at the end of last year because of a tech modernization program.
We have more work to do. There are more structural savings opportunities ahead of us. And we're going to continue to optimize our business model so that we're not the sum of multi-domestic parts, but truly a cohesive global operating whole. AI is going to drive productivity in all the ways in which we read about and are experiencing. And we're going to grow free cash flow. That's going to help us continue to fund innovation and go-to-market. It's going to let us optimize our balance sheet, and it's going to allow us to kind of accelerate very shareholder-friendly capital returns.
And so what you can expect is that we're going to return to what has been the long-term post-public trend of TransUnion of compounding high single digits with great profit flow-through and mid-teens earnings per share growth. That's essentially what we've delivered in '24 and '25. And again, those are just kind of okay markets. But now we're bringing together all of this innovation and starting to leverage it. I think there's a great opportunity to go for.
And look, I'm happy to have my executive team with me here today. These are the folks that have made this happen, and this is a great team, the right team to go forward and leverage all this transformation to build a better business. You're going to hear from most of them today. It's a great mix of folks who have grown up in lending and information services.
And last year, we integrated some new blood. Mohamed joins us from Mastercard as our Chief Global Operations Officer. You'll hear from him. Tiffani Chambers joins us leading operations from Bank of America, where she did that for the Consumer Bank. And we have a new Head of HR, Alicia, who joins us most recently from Lyft and Google and GE prior to that. So it's a really strong team.
Let me quickly take you through the agenda for the remainder of the day. I'm going to hand off to Venkat here in just a minute. He's our CTO, but also our Head of Data and Analytics. Venkat is the godfather of OneTru. He's been working on it for 8 years. It was part of the turnaround of Neustar, OneID. And one of the main reasons that we acquired Neustar to help us build a next generation of technology, which I've been describing. He's got a great background for the job. Prior to Neustar, he was the Chief Data Officer at Walmart. Prior to that, he was Head of Lending and Analytics at Capital One. And if you dig deep enough into his CV, he started his career at one of our competitors where he helped build many of their analytics products. And so he has a deep grounding in the credit business as well.
Mohamed, as I mentioned, came from Mastercard. He's got 25 years in financial services, and he was part of the organization, not the platform payment side of the organization, but all the innovation around card analytics and fraud prevention and mitigation and built a multibillion-dollar product suite there. He's up next.
You're then going to hear from our market leaders, Steve Chaouki and Todd Skinner, and Todd Cello will wrap up the day. And in between, Mohamed brought a whole posse of our solutions experts. We've got the leaders for credit, marketing, fraud and communications, and they're going to present on their product lines. And in total, I hope this is a really informative day that helps you appreciate the great business that we've built and how rapidly we're going to be able to grow and how profitably we're going to be able to grow.
So with that, I'm going to pass it to Venkat, and we're going to get into it. Thanks very much.
Thank you, Chris. Welcome, everyone. Today, I'm going to describe OneTru platform into a little bit more detail. Chris went through a lot of what OneTru is enabling. I'll double-click into it a little bit. But before I unpack the power of OneTru platform, it's important to anchor on the core requirements that fundamentally demand a platform. The data to insights process, often called the data analytics value chain is a standard industry framework for converting raw data into actionable decisions. And it is common across credit, fraud, marketing globally, every solution we offer.
Now winners are defined by speed and scale as in how quickly organizations move from data to action and how consistently they deliver better models and better decisions. Executing this at enterprise scale requires navigating complex governance, data permissions, evolving security landscape and regulatory requirements. Point solutions cannot manage this end-to-end complexity. They fragment the value chain, slow down the execution and increase the risk. This is why platforms win. OneTru is the manifestation of this data analytics value chain.
Chris talked a lot about OneTru platform. Let me double-click into a little bit about the architecture of OneTru and double-click into OneTru. It's a composable multi-cloud native cloud platform built for scale, speed and compliance. It's designed to operationalize the full data to action life cycle that we talked about with a single consistent architecture across the solutions portfolio. It's the shared foundation that drives reuse, like Chris said, and operating leverage.
OneTru is also more than an internal platform powering all of our solutions. Like Chris talked about the intelligence layer orchestration and activation layer, it is enabling that orchestration and the activation layer. Its capabilities are commercialized through TruIQ, enabling a Platform-as-a-Service model that embeds TransUnion deeply into customer workflows and decisioning environments.
What truly differentiates OneTru and what I'll walk through next are our 5 foundational pillars: best-in-class data, industry-leading identity, a flexibility-first platform, global availability and natively embedded AI. Together, these differentiators make OneTru a strategic platform, not a technology upgrade that drives scalable growth, durable differentiation and long-term value creation.
Let's start with the first one, our data. Our core competitive advantage is proprietary data at unmatched breadth and scale, spanning credit, identity, device, communications and behavioral signals with a deep global reach. This is not static data. It operates at massive continuous volume, billions of records updated and refreshed monthly and over 50-plus billion signals or transactions that happen monthly on our network.
These transactions are device authentications, credit applications, real-time events, update events on the profile, call authentication, et cetera, on and on, that signifies a consumer behavior, an event, a signal, something that happened to a consumer. These signals create a living data asset that compounds in value over time, creating the network effect and the reinforcing the flywheel, as Chris described.
With all of that, the result is a data moat that is extremely difficult to replicate. It's built on a long-standing consortia, regulated [ formation ] relationships, privacy by design governance and decades of operational integration. AI further amplifies our advantage, driving more demand for this trusted curated truth.
What really sets us apart is the data we have that nobody else does. We have undisputed leadership in alternative data. Through strategic acquisitions like FactorTrust and Argus, we've established market leadership in buy now, pay later, short-term lending and deposit behavior to capture the rapidly growing demand for nontraditional credit insights.
Our data footprint is unparalleled in its breadth and utility from maintaining the largest global device consortium for fraud prevention to covering the entire U.S. population for marketing and identity. We have scale in public records and communication data, making TransUnion's insights indispensable. But the data is only as good as it is actionable. And that's where our industry-leading identity resolution comes in. Identity accuracy is critical to differentiated outcomes across the customer life cycle.
Chris talked a lot about identity, but let me tell you a little bit about what differentiates our identity graph. We start with our authoritative proprietary and trusted data, the signal that I've talked about, 50-plus billion transactions monthly that ground identity in real people and households, natively connecting online and offline. Deterministic and probabilistic signals that are evaluated simultaneously, not stretched together after the fact.
Using AI, every linkage is continuously scored, tested and refined, allowing for configurability by use case as opposed to a binary yes or no that is strictly attached to the profile. This scoring methodology allows us to configure, say, for example, high precision for fraud versus optimizing for reach in a marketing use case. The same identity can be leveraged in a very configurable way, very unique, nobody else in the market can do.
Our methodology is built for real-world behavior. It adapts to shared devices, changing signals and dynamic consumer behavior, all with our expert governance, privacy and permissible purpose controls embedded, not bolted on.
Proprietary data, unmatched signal and a differentiated methodology combined and the results are materially better. Independent analysts validate that our identity accuracy is industry-leading, especially in the hardest digital to physical matches. Ubiquitous cloud-native distribution, including as a Snowflake native app, puts identity closer to customer data, reducing friction and accelerating value. So we have the data. We know how to match it accurately in a leading -- industry-leading way. Now how can our customers take advantage of all of this on OneTru any way they want to.
Architecture as an advantage is best demonstrated through our deployment optionality that we have. Solutions hosted in TransUnion cloud environment or a composable environment deployed in customer cloud, accelerating time to value. And it can be available natively in AWS, GCP, Snowflake for some customers on and on, and customer can choose features and deploy only what is needed across the value chain.
This is best demonstrated through our TruIQ Data Enrichment app. The product, TruIQ Data Enrichment, where large customers can opt to have petabytes of data, historical time sequenced profile of 20 years of historical data, 20-plus years of historical data on consumers for analytical purposes, provisioned securely and directly. No copies, no data moves, provisioned directly in the cloud so that the customers can work natively in the environment they already work in with access to the richness of TransUnion data, combining with their first-party data and leveraging analytics at the intersection of our data and their first-party data. And this flexibility will eventually be available in all the global markets we serve.
OneTru lets us build once, deploy anywhere, turn innovation into a global growth engine. In the U.S., credit, marketing and fraud are live on OneTru. That really represents 80% of the revenue across, and we're scaling the customer migrations to complete this year. We're deploying OneTru in Canada, U.K., India and Philippines, rapidly scaling analytics and fraud solutions in those markets.
In Mexico, we're planning to leverage OneTru as the foundation. From day one, we're initiating a project to get Mexico on OneTru, which leaves us with the last and important differentiator, natively embedded AI. So a fair warning. I'll get a little bit technical here. It's important that you understand the ecosystem that we built and the differentiated nature and how we work with our platform.
We architected an ecosystem using neurosymbolic approach to turn massive data into precise actions. Neurosymbolic AI combines -- the approach combines the learning power of neural networks with the reasoning and transparency of symbolic logic to deliver AI systems that are more accurate, explainable and trustworthy at enterprise scale.
And our system has 4 components. The universal interface or the front door of the AI. It uses foundation models to allow for users to interact with the complex data using plain English. This is all of us use models, and this is the front door of the system. But there is a lot more architected in knowledge graphs that Chris talked about, the semantic foundation. It maps the complex nonlinear relationships between different data points. This provides the deep context that AI needs to make accurate connected decisions. When decisions matter, complex decisions you needed this deeper context.
The learning engine, it continuously ingests new data and outcomes to retrain and refine models automatically. As market conditions or fraud patterns change, the learning engine adapts the platform intelligence in near real time. This learning engine is refined by decades of TU experience, utilizing the leading-edge methods, specifically designed for explainability.
Lastly, the agents are specialized the AI programs to execute specific tasks or workflows. For example, flagging a suspicious application or optimizing a bid, ad bid. When all of these 4 components are working together, that's when you really unlock value. And we have all 4 operating on OneTru in what we call an analytics orchestrator agent that fits into the activation layer that Chris talked about.
Last week, we announced this analytics orchestrator agent in market in partnership with Google. We're getting great initial response from the market, including some customers who are ready to get started now. It's a very exciting step in our AI journey, and it's a great example of how these 4 components come together and live within the OneTru platform.
I'll let you see for yourself. Please roll the video.
[Presentation]
Thank you. Chris talked about the 800 data scientists on my team that have deep domain expertise that built thousands of models for our customers that make critical decisions every day. All of that domain expertise, that tribal knowledge is captured in the semantic layer, and we're -- they're using this agent to be able to do more with what they do for our customers, and we can serve more customers with the same resources. It is supercharging some of the customer engagements now.
We'll launch this as a core component of TruIQ suite, making a major shift from low-code to a no-code environment. And if you look at the data analytics value chain, what we mean by saying AI is embedded natively across the platform, that is not the only agent. It's a very important agent for the core modeling and analytical workflows, but across the value chain, any user has an agent, for example, the onboarding agent there, right? We have -- is used to automate the data onboarding process and the data ingestion process into the platform, which we do tens of thousands of data sources and petabytes of data into the platform, using conversational AI.
So with built-in governance and compliance, including human in the loop, this significantly improves the user experience and productivity of data operations users that are ingesting data into the platform. And on and on, AI is embedded across through the layer, and we have a robust road map, including in marketing and other services where we have MCP agents, enabling some of our data access through an agent to agent communication that some of our colleagues will talk later. We're excited about the AI road map and how we come in here, but also in a way that brings in reliable enterprise scale, trustworthy, governed and auditable and explainable way of how these agents work. This is very differentiating for us.
So we're seeing great results in both our products and internal use cases. Role-based agents such as the analytics orchestrator agent has allowed us to slash data scientist effort by 75%, while simultaneously accelerating our customer speed to insight. Said another way, our same resources can do 3 to 4x more engagements that they're doing. And these engagements, like we discussed, are sticky in being able to provide solutions that create sticky revenue on our platforms.
There are other product-specific examples that Mohamed will talk through later. And AI is also deeply embedded in our software development and operations. We've deployed context-aware tools to empower our engineering teams. It's delivering a 25% to 30% increase in feature throughput, allowing us to innovate faster. And then there are other areas where we are using AI to drive improvements like consumer dispute resolution, security vulnerabilities and patchings in technology areas. It's providing a lot of lift like you see there.
So AI was the last of our 5 differentiators, data, identity, flexibility, global reach and native AI. So how is this all coming together to unlock value? Let's look at the short-term lending bureau, we call FactorTrust. It's one of the first credit use cases completely migrated to the OneTru platform. Amazing progress there, amazing metrics. Jamal is going to talk a lot more about that, the incremental lift and how that's really enabling customer wins as a result of migrating to the platform. But let me touch a little bit in some of these great spaces, 25% faster response times in real-time API calls over a 12x faster batch processing, right, cutting from 24 hours to 2 hours.
Our customers are telling us they're already seeing lower rates of abandoned applications online in this space and higher win rate versus competition. And not only enabling the outcomes like we're seeing in credit, we're also obviously, Chris talked about this, creating a lot of cost savings efficiencies and leverage. By eliminating the technical sprawl and unifying our core, we have moved from a high-maintenance legacy model to a high-velocity platform.
We successfully consolidated the U.S. physical footprint from 30-plus legacy data centers to just 2. Most of the other applications running on cloud, we see a 50% reduction in maintenance activities, capacity that can be redeployed to innovation and growth. And we permanently lowered our capital intensity, reducing CapEx from 8% to 6% of revenue. Not to mention the $70 million in savings from the consolidation. And we're just getting started. So like I said, OneTru is just not a technology -- another technology upgrade or a technology transformation project, it's a growth and innovation engine that creates long-term value for TransUnion.
And to further delve more into how he's using this for innovation, I'll invite Mohamed here.
Let's talk about innovation. Nice to be here with all of you. I celebrate my 1-year anniversary with TransUnion this month. So very excited. It's been a great year. I want to talk a little bit about my background, add a little bit to what Chris said.
So I started my career in software development, worked to develop a lot of different solutions and worked with a lot of technology leaders, and I do have to say Venkat is a great visionary leader and a great partner to have in the journey that we're on. After software development, I spent 25 years in financial services. I first started at McKinsey, where I work with banks and insurance companies across the globe and then move to GE Capital and then Synchrony Financial, where, by the way, I was a customer of TransUnion. So I know the products well. I gave them a hard time when I was a customer.
And then I moved to Mastercard. At Mastercard, I led a global product organization. For those of you that are not familiar, Mastercard operates in over 120 countries across the globe. And what I did is I used the transaction data when you swipe a card to build products that help customers make better decisions and get better insights. That business, when I left, was a multibillion dollar business growing at 20%. For those of you that are familiar with MasterCard, the services business is a large part of MasterCard revenue. And what I built was a big portion of that services business. It represents over 40% of the company's revenues and is growing faster than the core payments business for Mastercard.
For us, at TransUnion, I see our noncore credit solutions in a similar way to the services business at Mastercard. Now what I will tell you is that TransUnion, we have a lot of very valuable assets. You've heard about the breadth and the scale of the data that we have. It is significantly larger than what I had at Mastercard. And it creates many avenues for innovation for us as a company.
In addition, you heard about the OneTru platform. The OneTru platform is allowing us to be able to take advantage of that data and create solutions at a scale, not possible at other organizations. So I've been here for a year. I've heard 2 big questions from some of you here. The first one is how does marketing and fraud fit in the overall TransUnion business? And the second is, how are we driving differentiation and innovation at TransUnion?
So if you leave this presentation, there are 4 things that I want you to walk away with. The first is the markets that we play in that Chris talked about, these large markets, we have an absolute right to play and operate. And what I would like you to leave with as well is to understand how marketing and fraud is a natural extension of what we do in our core business. I want you to be able to also understand the solution transformation that we've undergone and how that is helping us to be able to drive innovation at scale globally.
The work that we're doing and the products that we're developing is helping solve big problems for our customers. And all of the work that we've done is delivering real outcomes, real outcome for our customers and revenue growth for TransUnion. So we've been doing a lot of work, the transformations that Chris talked about. In solutions, we've transformed the global solution organization to be globally aligned. We moved from siloed teams in markets using these local tech stacks. That allows us to move a lot faster.
In addition, we are laser focused now on driving and solving customer problems and delivering customer outcomes. We've also enhanced the rigor and the focus and the agility in how we develop products across the solutions team. And finally, we've also elevated the focus across the solution lines to have much more financial and commercial rigor.
In the year that I've been here, we've achieved a lot. And I am extremely excited and more energized today about what we can achieve in the coming years. So over the next hour, I'll walk through the transformation work that we've done in solutions as well as the innovation and the solution leaders, Jamal, Brian, Steve and Jimmy will give you more details on each solution area.
So let me talk a little bit about how we're able to win and our right to win in the markets that Chris described earlier. These are large and growing markets. First, in our credit solution area. That is an area where we've had a natural leadership for over 50 years. It's an area where we're highly differentiated, and we are winning share and growing faster than our competitors. But what is really exciting is the growth opportunity in alternative data and in analytics and Jamal will give you a lot more color on what we're doing and the great work that we're driving in that area.
Marketing. All right. So let's address the question that I raised earlier. So just to be clear, we are not a marketing agency. We are not doing creative work, right? What we are doing is we're taking advantage of the customer identity of our data, of our analytics capability to help our customers be able to have better marketing outcomes, to be able to know who the target, to measure the performance and the ROI of their marketing campaigns. It is essentially exactly the skills that we've honed over the last 50 years in our credit business. We're using those same skills, the same capability and some common data to be able to develop these solutions, and it's working.
Today, we're a trusted partner of 70% of the Fortune 100 companies. Similar to marketing, fraud is another area where we take advantage of our leading identity graph, our proprietary data, we combine that with public data, analytics and AI to be able to help develop models and signals that are helping our customers prevent fraud. Some of the proprietary data that we have is quite unique. For example, our device consortium data. We have billions of device data globally, and we have the long-standing device consortium. Our phone data signals from our Trusted Call solutions, we see billions of phone calls every year.
Now if I move over to the consumer business, the consumer business is a natural extension of what we do in our B2B space and is an area where we're looking to drive even stronger growth. Today, we serve over 380 million consumers, primarily through our B2B partners like an issuer or an aggregator. We are the B2B leader in the markets that we operate. In our direct-to-consumer business, we have tens of millions of consumers that come to our web assets, to, for example, get credit monitoring or to do a credit correction. To be able to get that number of consumers would cost other organizations, millions and millions of marketing dollars.
Now what we've also done is we've consolidated and created a unified global consumer product suite. We had over 300 different products that were fragmented, unifying them and bringing them together into a single place, allows us to be able to be a lot more effective and a lot more efficient. And we've already migrated our customers, our B2B customers in the U.S. and in Canada on to the platform. It is, by the way, the same platform we're also using for our direct-to-consumer business.
So we have a lot of growth runways. It's going to come from different areas. The first is leveraging the offers. You've heard about the Monevo acquisition that we've done using that to help unlock potential in the offer space for our direct-to-consumer as well as for B2B partners, but also continuing to enhance our premium products. It's also about taking this global consumer suite of products and rolling out across all global markets. And the last is to make we're continuing to modernize and improve our direct-to-consumer business, and you'll hear more from Steve Chaouki on that.
Now we are helping our customers solve big problems. There's $1 trillion in credit losses that customers like ours experience every year from poor underwriting decisions or mispricing risk. Marketing grows every year by about $1 trillion. There is about -- we estimate at least $25 billion of wasted marketing spend. And frankly, that number is probably pretty conservative because some estimates go as far as half of the spend on marketing is wasted.
Over $500 billion is lost by businesses each year due to fraud in the areas that we operate. And that number is growing. I think you're all aware of the impact of AI that's happening and the new vectors of attack that AI is introducing. And as it relates to the consumer, there's over 600 million credit invisible consumers in the markets that we operate. For us, as TransUnion, financial inclusion is core to our mission, and we want to work with businesses and consumers to help them on their credit journey.
So our solutions help our consumers and our customers solve these issues by embedding identity, analytics and decisioning in the customer workflows. For example, our spoof call protection has blocked hundreds of millions of spam and scam calls to consumers.
Now let me talk about the customer life cycle. We help our customer solve the different problems that I mentioned by deeply embedding our solutions across the customer life cycle, from an engagement to acquiring a new customer, to managing a customer once onboarded, to recovering our customer. Our highly complementary solutions work together to make that possible, to help a business figure out who to target and get the right customers, to establish a relationship with a new customer, through, for example, our marketing business, to be able to manage our relationship to ensure that the customer continues to come back. And if the customer were to leave, to help the business figure out how to win the customer back.
For example, we work with the large U.S. issuer to help them be able to build a prescreen campaign. Our credit product helps find qualified candidates to go after. Our audience helps with the targeting of those. And our fraud ensures we're protecting from fraudulent actors coming in and getting access to that credit. Underneath all of that, our connected identity runs through every stage and enables our solutions to work together, so that customer can solve each step in that life cycle.
So I talked a little bit about our solutions transformation. I want to give you a little bit more color. Historically, our customers had a lot of powerful point solutions, but they were fragmented. They were siloed. It was complex for them to integrate these different solutions together. We have transformed that model. We have moved from siloed disconnected products to integrated and interconnected solution suites. Today, we have our integrated solutions delivered on OneTru across our solution lines. That shift dramatically reduces complexity, saves cost and delivers a better customer experience. It also enables us to be able to innovate at a much faster pace than we've been able to in the past.
Look at marketing, for example, we went from 90 products on 16 technology stacks to 30 products on the OneTru platform. I talked about consumer earlier where we had 3 different disjointed products that are now combined in a unified platform as well. This makes a difference and allows us to innovate at speed.
All right. I want to give you a slightly different way of looking at the OneTru platform from a customer lens. Now it all starts with data. So if you look at the bottom here, the data, the biggest challenge you have is a customer coming to work with a new company is taking that data and figuring out how to get it connected. It is -- a lot of time, it's expensive because you have to take your data, you have to move it, you need tech resources. We make it easy. We can directly access the data that sits in the customer cloud. No work required.
I would have loved that. I mean I used to be in software development. The amount of work to massage, move data is significant. The other choice the customer has is they could move and put it in our cloud. So it's a customer choice. Once that data is available, they are able to combine it with TransUnion's data and third-party data. Now what we do is we use our connected consumer identity to be able to link the different pieces of data, our data, the customer data, the third-party data together and enrich that data.
What does that mean? For example, adding an e-mail address, adding a phone number, having all of that together, you're now able to run analytics and AI to build better models, to get better insights on that data. Now what is really exciting is our ability to now interconnect our different solution lines. So imagine a customer that starts with our credit solution area. You have the data now already sitting in our OneTru platform or is enabled in your cloud using our OneTru platform. You could use that same data to be able to take advantage of our marketing solution or our fraud solutions, and build end-to-end workflows.
That is a powerful unlock. So for example, on our TruIQ platform, and Jamal will talk more about it, you're able to combine our credit solutions, our marketing and our fraud at the same time to deliver better customer outcomes. And the work I described is delivering real measurable outcomes for our customers. We are seeing improvements, higher conversion, faster time to insight, dramatically improved fraud capture and better customer engagement. For example, 162% improvement in fraud, remember that $500 billion number that I talked about, imagine getting an improvement like that.
On the other side of fraud, we're helping making sure that the right person is able to get through. So for example, we're seeing a 100% improvement in answer rate through our Trusted Call solution, and Jimmy will talk about that. In marketing, we're helping also prevent some of the waste. At 200 -- overall 280% conversion lift in optimizing audiences. So the takeaway is simple. Our connected consumer identity, our interconnected solutions, our interoperable platform and the analytics backbone is driving better outcomes for our customers and more superior results.
Let me give you a couple of examples, and you'll hear more examples from our solution leaders as well as from Steve Chaouki and Todd Skinner later on. This is a top 10 U.S. issuer that was already a credit customer of ours, but they wanted to find new ways to be able to improve the performance of their book. They wanted lower fraud, they better -- wanted better marketing results, they wanted to develop better risk models. They ended up combining multiple of our solutions, all seamlessly integrated, and that helped them be better engaged with their consumers, be able to drive more effective marketing campaigns and have less fraud.
This is a 20-year relationship that we managed to continue to extend and build even more trust with that relationship, but it also helped drive our noncore revenue 3x faster over the last 5 years. Another example, a top 3 payments player. This customer wanted to improve their analytics. They started with our TruIQ Data Enrichment capability, again, taking the data and enriching it with our information, and they combine their data with our data and third-party data. Now the interesting thing is we also brought other competitors' Bureau data into the TruIQ system.
Together, they've linked all of that in the cloud and use it to help build better identity information and to be able to build better analytics. This all happened within a span of 2 years. And they've also extended now to fraud and offers, and they want to replicate what they did with us in the U.S., in the U.K. market. This is an example where it shows you that the value of taking our solutions globally also allows our customers to follow -- our global customers to follow that expansion.
So our ability to bring and link different connected consumer data with our proprietary TU data and third-party data using our identity graph is able to unlock value for our customers. All right. Let me talk about AI for a second. I know there's a lot of questions across all businesses and what the impact of AI is to that business. And what I will tell you is for TransUnion, it is only strengthening our business. It is not just an overlay for us. We're embedding it across all of our solution lines.
OneTru's native AI capability that Venkat just talked about, it's quite powerful. It's allowing us to be able to innovate with AI much faster. We're able to move from raw data to tailored insights. We're able to create better and faster AI models and be able to make better decisions and we're able to simplify tasks and deliver a better customer experience. You saw earlier a video of the analytic -- the TruIQ Analytic orchestrator that Venkat showed. Now this tool is currently available to our own analysts, but we're soon extending it to be available to our customers directly in the TruIQ suite.
In marketing today, a lot of the audiences are predefined or preconfigured. We're using audiences by TransUnion as a way to be able -- where we're using AI in audiences by TransUnion to be able to allow our customers to create custom audiences to be able to suit what their need and who they're trying to target. For fraud, our AI model factory that you'll hear more about is enabling us to roll out new model at a much faster pace from months to days. That helps us be able to protect fraud and be able to address some of the newer fraud attack vectors that are emerging.
You will hear a lot more about our AI solutions in some of the solutions deep dives as well, but this is just the beginning, and there's a lot more that we have in the pipeline in terms of new products and innovation using AI. So we are enjoying measurable outcomes from all the work that we're doing. Our products are showing faster revenue growth. We are seeing higher retention and our sales pipeline is stronger than it's ever been. Our Trusted Call solutions, for example, is seeing 40% year-on-year growth. We're seeing the highest retention rate we've ever seen in our marketing business and we've doubled our pipeline across several areas.
But beyond commercial results, we are also getting independent recognition from Gartner, Forrester, Juniper Research and others. This underscores the strength of our innovation, execution and leadership across our solutions.
Now I am incredibly excited about the impact that solutions delivered in 2025, but there's a lot more potential in the years to come. In 2026, we're expecting to deliver over 70 new products and enhancements across our portfolio globally. We are focused on scaling through building once and deploying many that approach will help us to be able to move a lot faster across our geographies. This saves time and cost replicating our products in the different tech stacks across the markets.
And thanks to our high-performing teams and our transformation efforts and the OneTru capabilities, this work is expected to deliver over $500 million in incremental revenues over the next 3 years. None of this would be possible without a great leadership team. We have a team that brings a lot of domain knowledge and expertise and global experience across credit, fraud, marketing, consumer and communications. It's a team positioned to deliver great results. You will hear from some of them, I mentioned Jamal, on credit, Brian on marketing, Steve and Jimmy on fraud.
There's also demos outside. I know some of you might have seen it before. But during the breaks, please go out or even at the end of the day, they'll be there to showcase some of the products and some of the work that we're doing and the impact that we're driving.
But before I wrap up, I hope that you can now agree that we've made big strides in solutions and in the solutions organization that we're well set up to capture the market -- the big market opportunities that Chris mentioned earlier, that we are driving innovation at scale and that we're delivering results and impact for our customers and faster financial growth for TransUnion.
Thank you. I'd like to invite Jamal to talk about credit. But before that, we're going to play a quick video.
[Presentation]
Hi, my name is Jamal, the Global Head of Credit Solutions at TU. Before joining TU, I spent 25 years on the customer side of credit. Most recently, I was the Chief Data Scientist and Head of Personal Loans for LendingClub. And before that, I led consumer credit for HSBC across the U.S. and Lat Am. Throughout my career, I was able to create the most value when I had access to the right data and the ability to turn it into actionable outcomes.
I was a super user of data. I had access to credit, alternative and first-party data to build credit strategies and marketing programs. And this experience is shaping the way we are evolving credit solutions at TU. Our strategy is to provide customers with the most -- to provide the most print -- the most comprehensive data combined with advanced analytics to our customers to help them make smarter and faster decisions. So I'm going to repeat the statement one more time because I will keep coming back to it for the next 20 minutes. Our strategy is to provide the most comprehensive data combined with advanced analytics solutions to help our customers make faster and smarter decisions.
There are 4 key things that I'd like you to take away from the discussion from today. One is our core credit data is data-centric, built on proprietary -- data centric, built on proprietary data and operate in a highly regulated environment. It is very difficult to replicate what we do. It is also resilient due to strong performance driven by high demand for credit reports and scores.
Two, we are investing into 2 more growth factors. One alternative data, which you've heard about from Venkat. We believe that alternative data provides deeper visibility into the consumers for our customers. And advanced analytics solutions make it easier for customers to access our data, build and deploy models and activate marketing campaigns.
And finally, we believe AI to be increasing the demand for our data and accelerate the innovation. In 2025, credit risk generated $2.6 billion in revenue, about 50% of TU's total and grew at 13% year-over-year. If you look at the pie chart to the left, 95% of the revenue comes from proprietary data in core credit and alternative data. More importantly, 15% -- more than 15% now comes from new vectors, of what we call new vectors of growth in alternative data and analytics enablement. If you look at the bar chart to the right, 70% of our revenue comes from the U.S. and 30% comes -- 70% comes from the U.S. and 30% comes from international market.
We are only $2.6 billion within $27 billion TAM that is growing at 8% CAGR. So the opportunity is large and growing and most importantly, as 2/3 of our TAM comes from new vectors of growth in alternative data and analytics enablement.
So I mentioned the strategy a few times, so I'm going to spend now a few minutes to speak about the strategy. When we build the strategy, we built it from the customer's lens, where credit data, alternative data and analytics enablement are not separate products, but an integrated ecosystem to drive the greater value for the customers. And having led these functions myself, I know that the most outcome comes when all these 3 pillars of the credit strategy work together, but it's always starting with core credit.
For example, we power billions of credit decisions for customers annually with access to 1 billion consumer profiles. This is what we call our foundation of trust. And when it comes to alternative data, we continue to enrich the credit -- the consumer profile beyond what is in the credit file to help customers approve more loans, price risks more accurately and unlock additional use cases. So let me give you a couple of examples on how alternative data enhances the credit profile.
In the U.S., using FactorTrust trade lines help us expand the credit profile on 57 million consumers. And score 5 million more who were previously invisible. In the U.K., we use 145 million checking account records to assess ability to pay for consumers. And finally, the third inner circle, we bring all this rich data, and we combine it with advanced analytical solutions to create greater value for the customers. And the way we do it is very consistent with how Venkat mentioned it. We give them faster access to this data in the environment of their choice. And two, we give them access to advanced analytics solutions that helps them turn this data into actionable business outcomes.
And finally, Mohamed mentioned that somehow customers see 40% faster time to market for running their marketing prescreen campaigns. This strategy is resulting in higher approval, lower losses and business growth for our customers. So what I'm going to do over the next few slides is take each of these pillars and deep dive into each of them.
So if you look at core credit, this is the 83% of revenue on the pie chart. It has been a strong foundation for our business and core credit continues to grow faster than the broader market. We have the #1 bureau position in 5 of the 7 regions where we operate. We refresh 5 billion records each month through an extensive network of data furnisher across 30 countries. If you look at the chart, we have significant global reach and a very proven playbook for scalability. And as Mohamed mentioned and Venkat, we are expanding into Mexico in the first quarter of this year. And Todd Skinner will speak more about Mexico in his discussion.
Moving into the second pillar which is alternative data, alternative data makes actually more than half of our TAM. So we have been very deliberate in how we are building our portfolio of alternative data assets. But I'm going to go through a few examples to highlight some of the successes we had. In short-term credit and bill pay, we transformed FactorTrust to be the leading short-term lending assets. I have a full page on this after this. And we are extending buy now pay later trade lines in the U.K. to cover 190 million, which represents 95% of the market coverage.
In income and employment, we have now a solution that is live and delivered on our credit report powered by Truework that is active in mortgage, in auto and in consumer lending.
And finally, we are the only player in the market that provides benchmarking insights for cards and deposits at the transaction level through August. These alternative data assets, they help our customers see more consumers and find new opportunities for growth.
So when I get to the FactorTrust piece, FactorTrust represents the blueprint for transformation and innovation at TU. We acquired FactorTrust in 2017. We increased the transaction volume by 6x since we acquired it. And we just recently moved FactorTrust onto OneTru, as Venkat said, so to increase and enhance reliability and scalability.
We use TruIQ analytics capabilities to create the next-generation score, achieving 15% lift versus the previous score and the results are coming in and the market is rewarding us. So we are seeing 20% revenue growth year-over-year and we are winning 4 or 5 competitive deals against our key competitors. So we are extremely happy with how FactorTrust turned into the assets that is leading the market.
Now before I get to the third pillar, as a customer, accessing data faster and more frequently has always been a competitive advantage. So that meant faster time to market, more relevant offers, better credit decisions and ultimately higher conversion rates. And this is where TruIQ comes in to solve these type of problems for customers. So let's watch a quick video first, before we deep dive into TruIQ.
[Presentation]
The interesting part is when we were having breakfast, I was sitting with Joe and Josh, never met them. And we were actually demoing how we are now reducing the ability to go to market from a few weeks into a few days. So I encourage you guys to look at the credit in a demo when you have time.
So I just want to explain in simple terms what TruIQ again is, I'm sure the video is self-explanatory, but TruIQ gives customers a fully flexible and integrated solution, where data flows seamlessly all the way from insights to activation without multiple handoffs or third party. And this is huge, like me being in that seat for 25 years, having these type of solutions would have been life-changing. I would have been promoted faster probably. So this is really an exciting product that we believe is going to change how people start conducting their marketing campaigns.
The benefits are simple, faster time to market, more targeted and more frequent campaigns, better risk, higher conversions and ultimately more revenues. And as Venkat said, now with AI embedded in each of these modules, customers can unlock faster insights, model development and optimize their marketing spend and performance. So we are very excited about TruIQ.
So I'm going to give a couple of examples quickly. Couple of real examples of how IQ has been impacting the results of key clients. One is $100 billion-plus bank that was able to link our data to their data on the cloud and reduce their prescreen campaign by more than half. So they reduced it from 45 days to 21 days. Another client was able to use our analytical modeling environment, we call analytics studio along with our innovation lab data scientist and build their next generation of underwriting strategies using our advanced techniques and data together.
If you look at TruIQ, like I've mentioned, I gave you an example of FactorTrust as one blueprint asset in alternative data that has been doing exceptionally well. Well, TruIQ is one of those products in analytics enablement that is doing also exceptionally well. So we've seen 40% year-over-year revenue in 2025. We have 4 products in alpha or beta, we have the product in the U.S. and India and expanding to the U.K. in the next few months, and we are seeing increasing competitive wins in the market because we see more clients embed TruIQ in their workflows.
And this is an area where I believe AI is going to be helpful for us because we continue to integrate AI into the TruIQ modules and workflow. Finally, I just want to close by saying is, remember when I said comprehensive data and advanced analytics, helping customers make faster and smarter decisions. I repeated a few times. Hopefully, we've shown you that our core credit continues to perform at scale. That our alternative data expands access to credit and that TruIQ solutions, those innovative solutions are creating real customer impact and helping customers make faster and smarter decisions.
It is why customers continue to choose TransUnion and why we are very confident about the long-term growth opportunity that is ahead. We're going to play one more video, and I'm going to introduce Brian Silver, my colleague, who leads Marketing Solutions. Thank you.
[Presentation]
Welcome to a better way. No better way to say it. Good morning. Thank you for joining us, and I really appreciate the time today. As my colleague and friend, Jamal said, I'm Brian Silver. I run Marketing Solutions. I've been in the ad tech space for over 26 years. I got deep into data when I ran the business side of Yahoo! Mail data. And then when I left Verizon Media, I was brought in to join LiveIntent to create their identity business, and they just recently got sold by -- to Zeta Global. For the previous 3.5 years, I was at Oracle advertising, running strategy, BD and operations before coming over to TU.
I've seen firsthand how data shapes and drives value and better decisions. When I joined TU, I recognized a company with world-class assets, trusted relationships and solutions that when connected, tackle markets' biggest challenges. In the next 15 minutes or so, I'll share with you our journey, what I encountered just 11 months ago when I joined, the powerful foundation already in place, the market's readiness and how we're weaving these into solutions that are scalable, defensible and transformational.
Today, I will take you through a couple of key truths that set the stage for our discussion. We all understand that the marketing ecosystem is complex. New channels, increasing fragmentation and greater complexities. Marketers need a trusted partner to guide them through and consolidate away from, on average, 16 disparate solutions just to follow their consumers through their journey. When I first started meeting with customers, I asked what value does TransUnion bring to them? What they told me was all pretty unanimous.
First, TransUnion is foundational to their business. They were a trusted partner, and they brought the best data in the business. So you see TransUnion is that trusted partner. We offer a suite of solutions, all with a single view of the customer. This is vital as AI models depend on consistent identity signals across planning, activation and measurement. AI is accelerating marketing and the world, which is driving demand for connected data, shortening time to value and expanding expectations for marketing platforms and performance. But if you remember one thing today, remember this, because of our best-in-class data and deep connections in the industry, TransUnion's marketing solutions is perfectly positioned to be a global leading marketing player today.
And our momentum is building. In 2025, Marketing Solutions grew 25 -- sorry, 15% in Q4 and 7% over the year, our best year since the acquisition of Neustar. Our revenue is structured around 3 global pillars: identity, audience and measurement, and I'll get into more detail about those in the upcoming slides. But what's the most exciting part, we're just getting started. We're at a pivotal moment. Your data, your ability to connect it and whom to trust to give access to continue to be more critical and a hard decision each and every day. Change in our industry is constant, but the need for data and trusted partners remains foundational.
AI accelerates demand for richer connected data sets to support these, audience creation, personalization and predictive outcomes. But remember, AI is only as good as the data it learns from. Media fragmentation creates often too many disconnected and actually incorrect data signals. Marketers struggled to understand consumer preferences and make smart decisions. They need a trusted partner to connect data to a single view of the customer. As companies move data to the cloud, they want a reliable partner that can meet them where they already are. These dynamics heighten the strategic importance of a trusted identity and govern data, 2 of TransUnion's core strengths.
Here is our solution framework. We've organized our offerings into the marketing life cycle across -- sorry, we've organized offerings across our marketing life cycle into a unified customer experience we call TruAudience. Customers access these through modular suites, spanning identity, audiences and measurements. Everything resides on top of our OneTru platform, and this layer enables seamless collaboration that brings beyond a lot of these features privacy-enhancing technologies, which remain critical here and around the globe.
From a customer's perspective, we offer an enterprise, flexible way to buy across our solution, generating a flywheel effect. Clients can begin wherever they need, whether it's cleaning their data, buying third-party audiences, or purchasing additional audiences and then they expand to other solutions. Insights like wasted media spend or audience effectiveness, help drive outcomes that are established based on customer defined metrics. Our solutions provide the foundation and seamless integration clients expect for planning, activation and measurement. And these services are enriched by an expert service level that ensures our clients can expect the maximum insight value from their TU partnership.
The flywheel effect enables real cross-sell and upsell opportunities. It helps us deliver value to multiple marketing personas as needed. As I have said, all of these applications are built on the common foundation of OneTru and as OneTru continues to expand globally, we have the ability to move from point solutions to our full enterprise offering to new markets and to global players.
But the key to our solution is not just flexibility. It is the integrated partnerships in all phases of the flywheel. Identity reaches its full potential when activated through audiences, moving from insights to action. But activation isn't enough until measurement proves performance. When identity powered audiences drive measurable results, we don't just validate campaigns, we reinforce results -- sorry, we reinforce the value of our solutions, making every campaign smarter and meet and beat our customers' expected ROI. This is how the flywheel accelerates each campaign, learns, improves and propels to the next.
TransUnion stands apart by providing deterministic identity, high-quality audiences and comprehensive measurement, all connected end-to-end with high-quality service. We've proven our value with mature marketers. As Mohamed mentioned, we work with 70% of the Fortune 100 today. As we've consolidated and simplified our offerings, 20% of our customers utilize at least 2 of our solutions today, and this number is accelerating and growing rapidly. We are no longer looked upon as a single part of a solution, but a key partner for all of the solutions. If you think back to the legacy Neustar days, companies were coming to us because of our high valued and high performance in measurement.
Companies like USAA, the NFL, the NBA, GM, Ford, Walmart, et cetera, are excited to grow with us and for us to have the ability to provide the results to engage their current customers and their future customers. Our integration network covers 98% of the addressable media partnerships, including 10 global -- 10 global media platforms. As we move into more countries and regions, our partnerships are expanding as well. Connections build trust and emphasize interoperability, critical in today's landscape. As we discussed, marketers use many systems and AI-driven workflows require secure, consistent data movement. Interoperability is no longer optional. It's a requirement to create value across partners and solutions.
Trust, confidence, data fidelity, these are providing us with winds in our sails as we head into 2026 and beyond. In Identity, our best-in-class data delivers 30% higher conversion rates. Audience has allowed marketers to find the right customer at the right time, our measurement solutions report and optimize real-world outcomes. Unlike competitors who typically measure on a single platform, we report incrementality across multiple platforms, thanks to our strong partnerships and quality integrations.
Our solutions give teams what they need. Who are we reaching today? Who should we reach tomorrow? And what impact is our marketing actually having? These tailwinds are substantiated by our 2025 results. Across our pillars, as shown here on the right, let me highlight a few trends. Identity Solutions grew 21% last year with 40% of our new bookings coming from our native cloud integrations. And benchmark studies revenue grew over 190% last year, opening up many new mid-tail, mid-market and long-tail customers.
AI is helping us not just solve complex issues in the marketing space, but accelerate everything possible. Marketing solutions has already been utilizing this in our day-to-day for a long time. We started with LLM models and machine learning in our insights across MMM, MTA, attribution and experimentation. Remember, AI is only as powerful as the data it learns from. That's why we're focused on delivering trusted, connected and governed data at the core of every AI decision. Our best-in-class data is the ultimate competitive difference in the business.
In a recent study, utilizing TU's data, customers were able to see a 10% improvement in leading model fit, while also reducing false positives in audience targeting by almost 20%. But let me be clear, power's marketing solutions using AI today and more in the future. First, within our audiences by TransUnion product, we rapidly deliver audiences to customers with enhanced search and discovery, modeling through self-service portals. Next, as Venkat was talking about, we've begun to develop machine-to-machine agentic workflows or MCP agents, model context protocol agents from clients and partners can connect to our MCP servers to engage with our data and solutions.
Lastly, we're also creating predictive modeling to increase the probability of selected audiences and data sets to act in the customers' desired ways. At a recent sales kickoff, I was sitting on a panel with a leading auto data provider. He was telling the audience about his problem, which is to help solve his customers' biggest problem, which is they know that of all the people who buy a car brand today, 50% of that audience will not come back and buy that car brand again tomorrow. When we were going off stage, I said, hey, how valuable would it be if TU can not only tell you which 50% would come back, but then provide you with additional data sets to then convert that audience as well.
He turned to me, lit up like a Christmas tree and said, well, that would be worth its weight in gold. And I said, well, I kind of like silver a little bit better, but I get your point. Lastly, I'd like to take you through what this looks like when we package this all together. Here is a client example showing our enterprise solution in action built on trust and adaptation as the media ecosystem evolved. We started working with this top 5 U.S. retailer 14 years ago with traditional marketing effectiveness. As we improved campaign performance, the company expanded our measurement capabilities across their full marketing campaigns starting with brand and event marketing.
When that proved effective, they expanded to include performance measurement in Canada and Mexico. Throughout our measurement results, we discovered a need to shift to more personalization in the retailers' messaging and move to identity-based targeting messaging with our Identity resolution and customer intelligence solutions, building a 360-degree view of their customers and improving match rates by 20% for campaign performance.
This supported the creation of a single view of their customer through utilization of our identity enrichment services to bring all of the disconnected data sets that they had into one view. This increased their known customer database from 14% to 30% and drove the ability to track purchases and future marketing opportunities.
As the industry continues to shift towards retailers monetizing their own websites, we help to transition with tested audience strategies in media buying, leading to the launch of their retail media network. And then built, tested and scaled audience models: First, to support test and learn strategies and measure how these audiences performed and second, to scale audiences around specific customer types first-time homebuyers, do-it-yourselfers, et cetera. Through every step of this process, we expanded the use of new capabilities and reported on key performance metrics ensuring a balance of solutions to expected results.
This partnership drove significant benefits to both, customers and TransUnion. The retailer's paid media investment grew from $400 million to over $1 billion in the time in which they were with us. This, of course, was driven by the 20% increase of their identity match rates but ultimately, it was based on the fact that we hit their targets each and every step of the way. TransUnion, of course, benefited from this relationship as well. We increased our ACV by over 6x over the lifetime of this partnership. I would say, it was a really good partnership and continues to be one today.
So in closing, I know you had questions coming in today. Efficacy of our strategy, how important can this be for TU? Today, I focused on facts of our industry, where TU currently is established and more importantly, how big of an opportunity can this be? Ultimately, laying out for you our case that because of our best-in-class data and deep connections in the industry, that marketing solutions will be a leading global player.
The results speak for themselves, how our financials have rebounded, and we're poised for strong growth in the upcoming quarters and years. We're expanding globally -- sorry, we're expanding globally, capitalizing on our differentiators, leveraging AI for speed and usability and using best-in-class data to fuel their growth. I thank you for your time today.
But before I let you go, not that I'm competitive, but the outcomes-based measurement demo that's outside is first class, and I really like to win, and so you should go check it out. Well, let's watch a small video and then introduce my colleague, Steve, to come on to the stage.
[Presentation]
Oh, my goodness. I've got a confession. I've been in fraud, identity and security for more decades than I care to admit. And at least for me, a fraud guy, I get goosebumps when I watch that video. And the reason I get the goose bumps is we're not just fighting fraud here. We're actually enabling trust at a very human level. And we're doing that at a global scale. And for a guy that was used to writing code at Accenture decades ago, to standing up here and representing our ability to impact our clients and our customers and our consumers, fighting fraud is, frankly, it's humbling. So hopefully, I can share some of that goose bump with you, if that's an appropriate thing.
My name is Steve Yin. I'm responsible for our global fraud solutions at TransUnion. And together with my colleague, Jimmy Garvert, we're going to walk you through how we are going about not only fighting fraud, but enabling trust at a very human level. The topic of fraud is pretty uncomfortable. It's a little bit scary. It's a little bit mysterious. And the reason that is, I think everybody gets it, right, is that it can impact me and you and your family, your friends, any time, any day globally. Actually, it's kind of scary when you think about it in those terms.
In fact, we do this global survey, a fraud survey, a study every year, and we survey thousands of consumers and hundreds of companies and in the past 90 days, over 60% of the individual surveyed indicated that they had personally been or their family member had been a victim of or an attempted scam, it is happening all the time. And we've got solutions that help combat that. I'm going to share with you 3 things today: the success we've enjoyed to date, the opportunity that we see in the market going forward and how we are uniquely positioned to capitalize on our proprietary data and advanced analytics to accelerate growth.
And along the way, we might share a little bit about how fraudsters think and how we stay ahead of them. Four areas. We're going to deep dive into each one of these things as we go. The first, obviously, large growing and global market. Fraudsters don't care about borders. They don't have regulatory compliance that they're worried about. They don't have to check with legal before they do something. It is a very intense and dynamic market, and it's global. But guess what?
We've got best-in-class data, and it really does create a competitive moat from which we compete in. Our solutions span the entire consumer journey. We think about it in 3 primary areas: identity, digital risk and also communications. And the fourth thing to point out is, at the end of the day, fighting fraud is actually a fairly simple thing, right? It's you separate the goods from the bads. You treat the goods really, really well, and you kick the bads off to the side.
Simple is not the same thing as easy. And what you're going to find is fighting fraud is all about data. Always has been, will be for the foreseeable future and advanced analytics is how we unlock the value of that data when we're fighting fraud. So how big are we from a financial perspective? It's about a $760 million a year business, growing at high single-digit rates. You can see those 3 areas that I mentioned, digital risk, identity and trusted communications. That's how the revenue breaks out.
The thing that's not shown on this slide, though, is that our revenue actually breaks out not just within financial services, but it also -- we do quite a bit of business in all of the vertical markets that we serve. The market's big. We already know this $25 billion total market opportunity. The thing that's most interesting to me in that survey that we do on an annual basis, we ask executives to estimate how much of their top line revenue is lost to various types of fraud throughout the year. And this number is, it's actually a little bit higher than that. It's over 7% of revenue is estimated to be lost to fraud on an annual basis across the globe. It's a pretty intimidating number.
The second thing that I'd point out is that human level trust that we're enabling digital interactions over 75% of all the interactions that consumers have in the financial services space, are digital at this point. So how are we enabling trust when 3 out of 4 times, you don't even know you have no personal relationship with that individual, when you're making that transaction, when you're considering opening that account.
Diving into our 3 pillars a little bit more. Identity, we've talked a lot about identity throughout the day. Identity most people think in terms of off-line identity. What's your name, your address, your phone number, things of that nature, but any more identity is this, right? Everybody knows this. You were incredibly tightly tied. Your identity is tightly tied to this device that's sitting in your pocket right now or on the desk. And so what does that mean? Digital risk. If you think about how you're using the phone, we're able to identify you from your phone, not through cookies and things of that nature, but how you're utilizing the phone, where you're utilizing your phone.
And it's not just your phone. It's any of those 5 or 6 devices that you're using on a daily basis to interact with our clients. Imagine the amount of data that's flying off of your phone continuously, and we're capturing that. And the last area is trusted communications. I'm not going to dive into that one. Jimmy is going to spend some time talking about our unique capabilities in those trusted solutions in phone calls. Underpinning all of this, we've already talked about is orchestration and optimization, all of it AI-enabled. And then across the top, is analytics weaved throughout each one of those solutions and across the solutions.
Our portfolio is broad and deep. The circle is just a quick way to think about the life cycle of the consumers that are interacting with one of our clients, from unknown to the client all the way through creating a business relationship, transacting within that relationship and then ultimately, terminating that relationship over time. What you'll also notice is that quite a few of our solutions have major impact in multiple areas of that cycle, right? So think about the leverage that's associated with being able to deploy a single capability throughout different various areas of that consumer life cycle.
So I said we might talk a little bit about how fraudsters operate. And I'll give you a couple pieces of insight here. Fraudsters operate in the gaps Think about that. They operate in the gaps. The gaps can be data gaps. So data silos, think of silos. They can be process gaps. A handoff wasn't proper, so there's an opportunity to exploit that. The technology may have some gaps to it. But importantly, importantly, there's a human gap. I say there's a human gap because over 60% of the scams that are perpetrated on a global basis traverse the phone channel.
Imagine that. Our clients are talking to the fraudsters at some point, 60% of the time on scams. And yet these gaps exist. We're here covering those gaps, we're bridging those gaps. We're identifying the risk areas, and we're doing that through this bottom layer here, which is advanced analytics. I'm going to dive into that one a little bit more and talk about this thing we call the AI model factory.
So what is the model factory? It's a way for us to accelerate our ability to deploy AI into our clients' workspace, specifically to fight fraud. It's all built on OneTru. All of our data across all those pillars is in a single place. What does that do? It allows us early identification of emerging fraud threats. It doesn't matter where in the globe, we have a unique ability to see those threats as they're emerging.
What does that enable us? That enables us to create models that can fight those emerging threats. And oh, by the way, because it's all in this single hosted platform, we can create continuous learning in those models and continuous training in those models.
And then what if as we started to see a model degrade because they do degrade, especially in fraud very rapidly, we're able to alert our clients and say, hey, you know what, you may want to update the model. Here is now what's working even better and what if you're able to hit a button and that model now becomes live in your network for the very next transaction. That's what we're talking about when we talk about the model factory, okay?
We've got 3 examples that I'm going to walk through. And Brian said, you got to go check out the marketing solutions. I would recommend you go out and check out the fraud solutions demos out there, but before we get into those 3 examples, let's meet Jane real quick.
[Presentation]
Quick show of hands. Who thinks Jane -- that we made Jane up just to kind of give you an example? Whoa, no hands. You think we made up Jane? Jane is real. Jane is a little scary. Jane actually defrauded clients of $6 million over a 5-year period of time by what we call serial credit washing. You go out, you get some loans, you then dispute those loans because you're a victim of some sorts. Those loans get pushed off to the side, your credit rating goes up and you go out and you do it again. She did that for $6 million across 5 years. Real person doing this.
Exceptional, yes, but indicative of the types of things that we are able to uncover uniquely. We're the only ones in the industry with a solution that is targeted at this type of fraud. Oh, by the way, on here, you're already noticing that it says synthetic identity. Jane went on to then try to create 5 additional synthetic identities and rinse and repeat this. Again, well, with our synthetic identity score, we're able to identify that, that's actually not a real person that's doing that. And we do that through something we call proof of life, also unique in the industry. Proof of life, you're like, what does that mean? It means would a synthetic identity have a driver's license? Would they have a bankruptcy in their history? Would the fraudster go to that extent to create a 7-year ago bankruptcy in their profile in order to then become a synthetic identity. These are solutions that are coming out of that model factory, and they're sewing together, through analytics, those gaps that we have identified, in this case, in the data gaps.
The last thing I'll leave you with is this one. This one is especially -- it's special to me. And that is another product of our model factory. It's a new model, just brought it out. I think it's coming commercial like this week or next week. It had been in beta. And it's an AI model that sits on top of the largest device consortia in the world, our device consortia. And it's a model that identifies additional orthogonal risk versus what we had always historically been able to identify from a device risk perspective. This model has become the single most predictive feature of fraud at Starbucks. So if you're a Starbucks frequentler, I am, we're protecting not just the $50 that you've got in your Starbucks Card on your app, but the $2 billion of stored value that Starbucks has predicated on all the people that are walking around with $50 in their account. We're doing that all day, every day. And from a business model perspective, this is incremental business on top of that device risk revenue that we receive. So this is additive revenue through analytics, through AI.
With that, I'm going to hand it over to Jimmy, and he's going to walk us through communications fraud.
Thanks, Steve. Good morning, everybody. I'm excited to be here to talk about our trusted call solutions, the success we've had since we've joined TransUnion 4 years ago as part of the Neustar acquisition.
So when you think about phone calls, it is something that -- it is a personal environment for you. So think about your own experience with phone calls over the years. You got a lot of scam and spam calls, numbers you didn't know, things that caused you to stop answering the phone. And so what happened there? Legitimate calls, you stopped answering. So that has become a real market challenge.
Now TransUnion is now at the forefront of revolutionizing voice calling. And so when I think back to 20-plus years ago, when I helped build out one of the first next-generation digital networks here in the U.S., I never imagined kind of the evolution that would come associated with that, went from 3G to 4G to 5G, opened up all those gaps that Steve talked about, the risk that happened, that the bad actors were starting to exploit, free phone calls, very low cost to be able to spoof their identities and your identities and the business identities that created this lack of trust. So we built this opportunity to be able to restore trust in voice calling.
And it's something that, at Neustar, we've had a team of experts that we brought over as part of that acquisition. This team continued to innovate around things like call authentication to the point where the FCC mandated a call authentication standard that our team co-wrote that every carrier in the U.S. implemented. We went from being the thought leaders to the market leader. And we leveraged that market leadership position to get the integrations and the partnerships that allowed us to launch products such as Branded Call Display and Spoofed Call Protection that have shown phenomenal results over these past few years. We went from $27 million in revenue when we started here at TransUnion back in 2021 to over $160 million last year. We'll do well over $200 million this year with clear line of sight to over $300 million in 2028. It is a market need that the enterprises and consumers want to see. They want to see this reestablishment of trust.
So for us, it goes beyond just what we're doing for the large enterprises here in the U.S. We have the opportunity to continue to scale this because this issue is not a U.S.-only issue. It's a global issue. It's one as well that cuts into text messaging. We recently announced the pending acquisition of data assets from RealNetworks that start getting us into the text messaging analytics market. Again, there's a lack of trust, not just in voice communications, but text messaging, all forms that the enterprises want to engage with you.
We now have that opportunity. When we think about international and the markets that we serve, that's another $500 million-plus opportunity. SMBs here in the U.S. are another $1 billion plus. The text messaging and the ability to link text messaging with voice calls, we will be the only company capable of doing that. That's another $2 billion.
And the results speak for themselves as well on the effectiveness of this solution. We're stopping fraud before it happens. And we have the opportunity to educate consumers on what legitimate transactions are because fighting fraud just isn't stopping the bad, as Steve said, it's elevating the good. Consumer education on what is a legitimate transaction matters. And what we see associated with that are things like an 83% lift in credit card conversion from a bank leveraging our Branded Call Display. So we are very excited about the opportunities and the scale that we're achieving. We're just still, even though we've been doing this for a few years, at the infancy of what we can do.
So with that, I'm going to take a step back and talk about our overarching fraud solutions that Steve and I have just discussed. So as Steve said, that mobile device is now your digital identity. And it is -- it's the first thing you pick up in the morning. It's the last thing you put down at night typically. It's how enterprises want to engage with you. And it's why the bad actors, the fraudsters wanted to take advantage of the gaps that are created associated with that digital identity.
When you think about being able to stop the bad actors, what are the things you need to have? Identity of the individuals, we have that. You need to have digital assets things like device that Steve talked about. We have that. And you need to have the fundamental telco signals that you can understand what's really happening at the time of those transactions. We have that. We are the only company that has the breadth and depth of information that allows us to provide both the protection as well as the promotion of legitimate transactions. So we expect, because of this market position, to achieve, at a minimum, high single-digit growth over the coming years. We're very excited about what we are doing here within the fraud portfolio.
So before we get to a break, and you'll hear coming out of the break from our market leads who show how we've taken this solution set and take it globally as well, I wanted to just take again the opportunity to talk about the proprietary data assets that you've heard across all of our facets around identity.
I've had the honor to share the stage with market leaders across credit, marketing, fraud. They're showcasing the actual results of the integration that has happened associated with the strategic acquisitions that were made over the years. Now that these integrations are complete, it's not just about the cost savings that Venkat had. We're showing the tangible revenue growth that comes from the innovation of the platform that has been created here at TransUnion. So the last parting thought that I have associated with this is because of that market position, because of the unique data assets, the integrations that we have in the markets that we serve, TransUnion is one of those companies that sits in that enviable position where we can take the transformational nature of AI to really drive the growth and innovation of our solution set.
And so with that, I encourage everybody in this 20-minute break that we have to go to the solution showcase out there, all the demos that we have. Again, I'll do the plug for Branded Calling and Spoofed Call Protection like everybody else. But thank you for your time this morning, and we look forward to continuing the conversation after the 20-minute break. Thank you all.
[Break]
Alright, thank you, everyone. I'm going to pick up where my colleagues left off. I'm going to talk about how these great platforms that we built over the last 2 years and all the solutions families that were created, add value to our customers and thereby generate revenue for TransUnion.
I've been here 18 years almost. And I think even as we've emerged and evolved the business into this vast, heavy platform and solution company, we were trying to retain the things that made us historically successful in the marketplace. And that is our ability to understand our customers' business and our proximity to our customers, the amount of time we spend with them and our understanding of what they specifically need.
The U.S. business has really operated under these 4 pillars for a while now. And I think I'll just lay them out and then we'll go into them in more detail as the slides progress. We maintain market-leading positions in a large set of verticals across the country, about 20 of them. And there are subverticals within there, and we segment it. And we work very hard to make sure we have expertise in those spaces, and we serve our customers effectively through knowledge and leading with insights, which is the second point. We have an insights team and a specialized sales force that addresses and engages our customers regularly to understand them and serve them as well as we can. We leverage this vast set of solutions that you've learned about this morning and then use our proven playbooks to do this at scale repeatedly over and over again across all the industries in which we operate.
What are those industries? To reorient everyone, these are the main verticals that we serve in the U.S. today. Financial services is the probably most well-known vertical of TransUnion and the original vertical of TransUnion. It's just under half of our revenue right now. Within that, we operate 4 subverticals: mortgage, card and banking, consumer lending, and auto. We want to face our customers the way they face us. And that's usually how our customers organize their businesses even within their institutions. So we want to make sure that we're bringing the appropriate expertise to them. And that's the same across all these verticals. It's kind of the model that we employed everywhere.
Our consumer business is our second one. I'm going to go into much more detail on these shortly. That's our second oldest business. It's about 16% of our revenue. Most of it lives in that indirect bucket. About 3/4 of it is B2B2C. So it's really -- it's a consumer business, but it's B2B. And then those customers then serve consumers directly. And about 1/4 of it is our direct-to-consumer business. That's where we have our new freemium product. I'll talk about that as well.
On the emerging verticals front, insurance is our original emerging vertical. We started in the personal lines space in P&C. In that space, we are the market leader. We have the largest market share, but we've grown since then into life and commercial. And then we have a broad range of diversified markets, which are all actually quite big. Collectively, they're about 1/4 of our revenue, but they represent a variety of different verticals where we've chosen to engage the market and where we believe we have a special right to win.
Financial services is the first one I want to talk about. And as you can see here, mortgage is about 1/3 of the revenue there. Card and banking is a similar size, and then consumer lending and auto are both sizable, but a little bit smaller. We've had a very good growth profile in this business for the last couple of years, growing in the teens, as you can see. And in 2023, we were still able to grow. That's despite like the fastest rising rates in 40 years. I think rates have not risen as fast in '22 and '23 as they had since '80, '81. So despite that, which is probably the hardest thing to overcome in that industry, we were able to grow the business. And of course, as rates settle, they haven't come down really. They've kind of just flattened a little bit, maybe trickling down. We've been able to get nice growth out of that business. We serve about 12,000-plus customers in the space. We have long-standing relationships with every major lender, and we're the leading bureau for fintechs.
All that said, we've been able to grow the business ahead of the industry growth, and we're growing across all 4 of these verticals and across the risk spectrum from super prime all the way down to subprime and everything in the middle. So we have nice broad-based growth across a variety of different customer types and across the entire risk spectrum that serves in the space.
Our next area is Consumer Interactive, and I said I'd talk about this a little more. This bucket here is B2B2C. Think people who serve customers and then use credit data for them. It could be a bank, for example. If you use Capital One, you may go into their credit monitoring tool, and you'll find us there. We're very public, right? It's known that we are supporting that.
And then the direct side, of the house, which is 1/4 of the business. That's our freemium product that we launched last year. Growth in this set of verticals has been a little slower than others. Our B2B side has been growing more strongly. That's been buoyed mostly by -- or among many reasons, but very specifically by our breach business, which has grown rapidly for us. The breach business is a little bit lumpy. It's a breach services business. When the customer has a breach, we come and help remediate it for them. That has been growing rapidly, but it's lumpy. Those -- the big breaches, especially are coming in big buckets. So over time, it works itself out to be a fast-growing business, but we tend to tell you when those things happen.
And then our direct business has a new freemium product. That product is beginning to grow and beginning to show the signs of growth. Now -- but you have to remember, a freemium product needs 2 things. We need to fill it with consumers, which we're doing at a faster pace than we expected. So we're getting customers to come in and use it for free. Then we need to have the offers, which we're growing as well. And then we match the offers to consumers and over time, you generate the revenue. So it's not something where you hit the switch and instantly, you have a ton of consumers who are generating revenue. We have to build the momentum of the flywheel, which is what we're doing right now.
In our emerging space, you can see insurance. I'll start at the bottom and then go to the top just because of the timing. Insurance is our original vertical in the space, growing nicely through all cycles, started as a personal lines business, but we are getting material growth within commercial and life. We are the leading bureau in the space. We have primary share with many, many carriers and have more than our share within this in credit and driver history and things like that.
And then we're beginning to expand our share within commercial lines and life insurance and grow that sector. And then in the diversified space, you can see we have a broad range of verticals. We're expanding the growth there and building on it based on the solutions that you saw earlier today. Tech, retail and e-commerce being the biggest, but our media business is rapidly growing at 20%, and telco, very strong for us. We have relationships with pretty much all the major telco carriers, most of the top retailers and most of the entities within the media ecosystem, as my colleagues mentioned earlier.
So how do we do this? What do we do and how do we serve these verticals? We start with what we call robust thought leadership. We have a dedicated research and consulting team that creates top-of-the-funnel research to engage the market. I hope you have a chance to talk to some of them out there.
The leaders of that team are out there today. You can find them in the expo. We then take that and use deep vertical expertise, hiring people who worked at our customers or have a deep understanding of our customers to help us engage our customers as a peer, as a colleague, someone who truly understands their business. And then we serve the customers through a specialized sales team. These sales folks are organized around buyer personas. Not organized around products necessarily, but organized around how people buy the products. A buyer may buy several products or just one product family. We set our sales force up to look like them so they can carry the bag in that services that customer's needs. I think it's very important to do it that way. Otherwise, you find you wind up with a lot of product pushers in there. Here, you actually have an engaged seller who understands the customers' needs and can package things together for them in a way that works very well.
I'll give you an example, like you saw that credit washing product and how that goes through this ecosystem quickly. The credit washing product was identified through conversations with our customers and top-of-funnel research not that long ago, like a year ago, not very long ago at all. We then used our capabilities, and Steve and his team delivered a product to us rapidly. We launched it into the market at the very beginning of Q4 of last year. And within a few months, we had a $12 million pipe growing rapidly with sales converting. It's a very exciting process for us now that we have these platforms that are capable of rapidly developing products. We can now bring ideas that are very salient, relevant and timely and actually deploy solutions to them quickly so we can be first movers in the market and gain share and serve our customers as well as possible.
We then leverage a variety of metrics and best-in-class tools to make sure our sales force is as effective as it can be. In 2025, those tools and this 1,000-person approximately sales force just under delivered the best results we've ever had, and we continue to build on those results. We increased top-of-funnel pipeline by 23%. The opportunity size has increased by 21%. Our wins increased by 30%, and our increase in revenue from these wins was 13%, like a very good solid year, and this is setting us up for the future. A lot of these wins actually will flow into '26, like you win them at the end of '25. By the time you launch the solution with the customer, it's now. So these are very good top of funnel and bottom of funnel performance for our sellers.
How are they achieving this? Well, beyond having great sellers who face off to our customers the way they want to face off to us with great buyer persona service, we carry a large bag. Something we've joked about this for years at TransUnion. For years, when I got here, we carry what we call the light bag, small, had credit, a little bit of fraud. We could serve our customers very well with it, but we were limited in our capabilities. What you see here, I think you've seen this depiction before, the 4 products of the identity go down the middle, that's what we're carrying today. So our sellers have so many more tools. Our vertical leaders have so many more tools to actually address and serve the needs of our customers. And these tools overlap with each other, and I'll talk about it in a little bit. It's not isolated to like, well, this is a credit tool only and here's a fraud tool. Often, these tools interact with each other and create value that only TransUnion can unlock because of these capabilities that we have and allows us to be the best possible provider to our customers.
What are the results of this? So the first year after -- right before we bought Neustar 2021, we bought them in December, you can see our penetration of products into the customers that we have. 14% of our top 100 use 5 or 6 products from us; 39%, 3 or 4; and 47%, just 1 or 2. That's how this chart is laid out. Fast forward just a few years, last year, 21% of our customers use now 5 or 6 products, 50% increase from just a few years ago. 39 -- or 43% use 3 or 4 and only 36% are using 1. So we've had a lot of success, which is great. But as you can see on the dial, there's still a ton of opportunity. Our goal is to make that dial as blue as possible, make the whole thing dark blue if we can. So as we continue to move around, we have a lot of growth opportunity just within the customer base that we have by expanding our solutions to them in the way that we've proven that we can do.
I'm going to demonstrate how this works with 3 examples here, one from each of these key verticals. We'll start with financial services. We'll move into insurance and then into the DM space. These case studies show how TransUnion adds value to our customers. This is a pretty traditional relationship for TransUnion. You can see it up here. It's a top bank. Everyone would know it in this room. We've had a long-standing relationship with them. If you go back to 2022, we did about $16 million a year with this bank. Most of it was credit, but we had a nice fraud business and decent consumer and marketing business as well. As we've added these solutions and capabilities, we've been able to grow this dramatically. And you can see here, credit only grew 37%, but noncredit grew 85%. So had we not had these extra solutions, we could not have had this growth with this customer.
How did we do this? Our marketing solution, for example, in this case, was multi-touch attribution and analytic tool that help them with their credit card business. They have spend just like everyone else on marketing within the credit card business, trying to acquire customers. We were able to take that same exact spend using our analytic capabilities and partnering with them to deliver 4% more applications, which is good. I mean it's not like awesome, but it's pretty good.
But more importantly -- than 4% more applications, we delivered 31% more accounts. That's really good. That's the same amount of money delivering more accounts. How do we do it? By optimizing their spend and finding customers who have intent. Getting a consumer to apply who has no intent to take the card or doesn't qualify for the card is not very useful. Finding consumers who want the card and actually qualify for it, that's really useful. And we were able to do that for them and grow this with like not much extra spend.
Similarly, we have an Argus relationship with this customer. This customer leaned on us to say, "Hey, we're acquiring consumers to the bank, but we want to get them into credit cards." So we did an analysis leveraging our Argus capabilities, and we were able to increase their number of consumers taking a credit card by 500 basis points. That's a huge uptick, basically off the same base. A very, very good thing for them because multiple customers who have multiple accounts tend to perform better and be stickier for the bank. So very exciting for them, very exciting for us, obviously. We're very happy to be able to serve them in this way.
The next example is a P&C company, an insurance company. In this case, while I say we have leading market share in the space, it doesn't mean we have 100% market share. This was a P&C carrier where we did not have the leading position. In fact, we had a pretty weak position here. But Neustar, when we acquired them, had a very strong position within marketing. So we were able to bring the Neustar marketing capabilities into the space, using things like multi-touch attribution like I described and other benefits and other programs that we use here and grow our core business with a customer where we had very little penetration through a relationship that we now had via the Neustar acquisition and the marketing capabilities that this customer used. So you can see here, we had a 30% growth in this relationship but the credit business and fraud business grew rapidly with credit 3x in the space, like a reverse synergy, I guess, you'd call this, or a way to continue to serve them in different ways and penetrate markets in ways that we had not in the past.
The last example that I'm going to use is an audio streaming platform. I think you would all know who this is. It's a household name. Most of the people in the room probably have used it. It's a place where you go stream audio and then ads are placed in that audio streaming platform by brands who want to advertise to consumers. In 2021, this platform was generating about $2 million for TransUnion, mostly in the audience space. We enhanced this with TransUnion data. So we took the -- what was the heritage Neustar product at the time, enhanced it with TransUnion identity capabilities and made the identity much more refined, bringing it to be the best identity resolution capability in the industry. This customer purchased that capability to run their marketing ecosystem.
What does that mean? That means that I as a brand, want to find a customer, I use TransUnion's identity capabilities to reach them as they stream media through this platform. So it benefits both the platform itself and then the ecosystem that uses the platform, all the different brands. It gives them a one-stop shop. So the brands come in and look at like what Brian showed you in the video and what he talked about, the brands come in and talk to the streaming service in a single environment and deploy their audiences.
So what are the results? Great yield optimization. This is a really good example. Why would they give us 7x the volume or 630%, right? It's because we were able to drive up their CPMs. CPMs are cost per -- cost per million, cost per thousand, like the impressions that people pay to reach customers. But because the impressions were highly targeted, the brands are willing to pay more for those impressions, which made the media more valuable. And the brands are happy to do it because their results were better through more precision targeting. So the brands got better outcomes as a result of that highly precision targeting. This would not have happened had we not created this identity graph and dwell down the middle using all the capabilities that are specific to TransUnion. Super exciting for us and a great way for us to get out into the market and achieve the results that we want to achieve with our customers.
So within those 3 examples, I think there's so many more, right? I could go on and on and on. And I love this stuff. So I would do it, but they gave me only 20 minutes. So I want to leave you with a few takeaways. We have a great business model. We have awesome products and great platforms to deliver them. We have a team that is an expert in the markets that we serve and is very close to our customers and allows us to reach into them and help them create value.
Our value comes after we create value for somebody else in most of these cases, all these B2B businesses. And what we're doing is trying to unlock that value every day through all these capabilities that we presented to you today. This gives us a very durable, diverse and highly growing portfolio. It gives us a very special position in the marketplace and allows us to lead in these 19, 20 verticals where we operate, but also allows us to get into future verticals. We just haven't done it yet because we've been so focused on these, and we're able to serve them, but there are others where we can still go in the future.
So the growth profile in the U.S., despite it being the "mature market", the big market of the company is still very high. We still have a lot of potential to take all these products to the customers that we have, to deliver more value to them and understand and build new products quickly like we did with credit washing and then to create differentiated ROI accretive relationships with our customers.
As we expand our sales solutions, I think we -- or expand our marketing solutions and our suites, I think we're just going to get better and better. We are very well poised, I think, for high single-digit growth, which is what we think we can deliver. And I think we have a huge opportunity to continue to add value within the U.S. market and grow this business and achieve the potential that we're building for ourselves.
So I thank you all for your time. I'm going to hand it off to my esteemed colleague, Todd Skinner, who will talk about the international business.
Good morning. It's nice to see you all. As you know, my name is Todd Skinner. I run our International division. I've been doing that for 5 years, been with the company for 12, all in the International division. And what I like about Steve and Mohamed's conversation is it's very much a prequel to what you'll hear from an international perspective. And I think a lot of the things that Steve talked about, we're doing in the international space. But what I wanted to talk to you today about is why international is a compelling long-term growth story for us at TransUnion. And at its core, it's consistent with everything that you've heard today.
We operate in structurally attractive markets that are in both developed and emerging marketplaces. And we have a proven playbook to grow the value of our relationships with our customers that allows us to outperform in the long run. And increasingly, we're amplifying that through our global platforms like OneTru that will allow for faster solution diffusion, which meaningfully expands our long-term growth ceiling in international. And importantly, this isn't a story about hope or potential. It's actually grounded in results that we've already delivered in both our developed and emerging marketplaces, and we're still early in the journey. And so the international thesis is based on these 4 things.
First, that we hold market-leading positions across a broad and diverse set of markets that are not early-stage experiences. We hold #1 or #2 positions in many of these markets. Second, that we've demonstrated that our growth playbook allows for us to outperform underlying economic growth. That matters because our results are not simply a function of macro tailwinds. Third, that we're indexed to emerging markets that are large populations with low credit penetration and expanding financial ecosystems. And finally, the transformation that we're going through matters for us in international more so; that the global technology and operating model that we're building will allow for us to increasingly allow those innovations to cross our borders faster than ever before and create new growth vectors for us in international.
Now we operate in 30 countries and generate $1 billion in revenue. And what's important here is not just the size of the business but the quality and the balance of our portfolio. We have strong, durable positions in developed markets like Canada and the U.K., which generate consistent cash flow and are innovation testing grounds for us across international. And at the same time, we've scaled leading positions in faster-growing markets like Asia, India, Latin America, Africa and now Mexico. And this balance allows us to fund our growth internally, reinvesting in innovation and take a long-term view in emerging markets without sacrificing that near-term discipline that we talked about.
And so we have a proven growth playbook, and it's not accidental. They come from repeating the same process in every market, and the teams continue to generate success. We start with market growth, ensuring that we're in those structurally attractive marketplaces. With the technology modernization strategy that we're undergoing and the development of our product platform, OneTru will drive product innovation beyond core credit into fraud, marketing and consumer. We have established ourselves in credit and developed deep relationships with our customers that have allowed us to move from transactional to established partner status across the credit life cycle. We leverage that client approach to make sure that our solution sets will expand broadly beyond the existing relationships into new conversations.
And finally, with solution expansion, client engagement can allow us to expand into adjacent verticals, insurance, fintech, consumer, telco, gaming, public sector using the same underlying data, the identity assets to generate value for our customers.
And we see this in every market. From 2022 to 2025, international GDP in our markets grew, on average, 3%. In contrast, TransUnion outperformed by growing our revenue at a 10% CAGR. The gap exists nearly in every market where we operate. And that tells us 3 things about our business: that our growth is structural, not cyclical; that the value creation is value-driven, not volume-driven from our markets; and that there is still room to expand our share of wallet in the existing offerings that we have and we will increase share as we introduce new solutions and enter new verticals, the hallmark of a scalable, resilient international model.
So let's take a look at an example in action. Canada. Canada is probably the best example of our playbook at work. Through the period, the GDP and credit growth in the market grew at a modest 1.5%, and we were able to deliver double-digit growth at almost 11% over the 3 years. So how do we do that? First off, it's product innovation. It's a key differentiator for us in that marketplace. Led by our fraud solutions, not only our IDX identity solution used to detect fraud at origination, it now has moved up the funnel and is helping customers identify what was previously thought as risk as good consumers. This new solution has grown tremendously over the last 3 years, and we have 25 customers on this platform with more room for growth.
You heard Jimmy talk earlier about our branded call solutions, or branded call solution that allows for customers to make more connections. Imagine taking -- identifying more customers and more connections to help our customers grow. Our mature trended risk solutions and new iterations continue to show growth for us in this market. Through share gains, share shifts and new iterations, the solution has grown 22% over the period.
And lastly, Consumer Interactive, our indirect business continues to penetrate the market, supporting financial inclusion, education and our customers' objectives. We are the primary solution used by the 5 biggest banks, 2 of the largest monolines. We support 2 of the 3 aggregators, alternative lenders and offer our solutions through fintech.
Now these innovations drive different conversations. We're deepening our solutions in our largest customers' workflows, and we're working with growth-oriented mid-market firms. As they consume these innovative solutions, they're also consuming other core bureau solutions from us to get the greatest benefit from TransUnion.
The outcomes are clear. We have market-leading positions in financial services with the monoline card companies in insurance and breach services, and we've produced double-digit growth across consumer, fintech, telco and gaming in this marketplace. So Canada, even a mature market with benign macroeconomic headwinds, we can connect with our customers. We can drive innovation that solves problems and embed ourselves into their workflows so that we can drive sustained outperformance.
Now let's talk about our emerging markets. International is uniquely positioned with 57% of our revenue coming from emerging markets. And that matters because emerging markets drive 3 combined forces for us. First, demographics. Across our emerging market footprint, 1.6 million people under the age of 50 represent an economically active population entering the formal financial and digital ecosystem.
Second, from a financial inclusion perspective, only 1/3 of adults in these markets are credit active compared to roughly 2/3 in our developed markets. And that gap represents an extremely long runway, not just for credit growth, but for fraud and marketing as consumers move from first product to deeper engagement.
And third, digitization, and this is where the opportunity really starts to unfold, is Internet penetration across emerging markets is now approaching 60% and growing at double-digit rates, driven primarily by mobile access. Digital banking is expanding rapidly, up nearly 20 points from 2021 to 40% of adults in low and middle-income economies now using digital payments.
And lastly, and most importantly is e-commerce in markets like India, South Asia and Latin America growing at double-digit rates through smartphone adoption and digital public infrastructure investments. Digitization directly expands the demand for our portfolio. As consumers move online, they will have more choices and become more attractive to our customers across channels. Our credit, fraud and marketing solutions become mission-critical as risks move from physical to digital.
Let's talk about India. It's an important part of our international growth story. It's a fast-growing major economy with large and a digitally engaged population, and we're the clear market leader. This is a long-term growth engine, and we see beyond short-term cycle impacts. Since 2017, India has delivered 23% compounded growth even through significant volatility, a COVID-driven contraction, a sharp V-shaped recovery and most recently, regulatory and macro impacts. Importantly, even in 2025, a challenging year, we remain positive and profitable, reinforcing the resilience of our franchise. The track record gives us the confidence that India is a double-digit growing market over the long run.
The long-term thesis in India rests on 4 pillars: demographics and inclusion. India is the world's largest population with broad participation in the financial ecosystem and significant headroom in product debt. Second, product innovation. With movement towards high-frequency data submissions, you heard Chris talk about earlier, analytics, fraud, trusted communications, marketing and platforms like OneTru and TruIQ, we materially expand our value with our customers.
Third, deeper client engagement. We've been moving away from data supply to insight-led consultative selling with our customers. And last, vertical expansion. We will deepen our relationships in financial services and fintech and consumer and expand more widely into insurance, telecom and marketing. All these verticals represent incremental growth vectors.
Now India has made enormous progress from a financial access with nearly 90% of adults now having a formal financial account. Households, however, in India is -- wholesale credit in India is roughly 40% to 50% of GDP, where in developed markets, it's more 70%, which underscores the significant runway as incomes rise, digital adoption accelerates and first-time borrowers move deeper into the credit life cycle.
We're seeing early signs of success and product expansion beyond credit in India. We're now providing marketing solutions to the largest Indian organized retail jeweler and one of the largest Indian automobile OEMs. We've also secured our first global IPI fraud solution with one of the large private sector banks. This is why we view India as not fully penetrated across credit and our other solutions make us early in the monetization life cycle.
Now let's talk about Mexico and our acquisition that happened last week. It is the next great market opportunity for us at TransUnion. With the access of Buro de Credito, we are now the #1 bureau player, providing predominantly credit solutions to the market. With majority ownership, we can now start to prove our playbook from end-to-end in this marketplace.
Mexico combines scale, demographics and accelerating digitization, which together create a very compelling growth setup for TransUnion. Starting with scale. Mexico is the second largest economy in Latin America, the 12th in the world and the population soon to reach 138 million by 2027.
From a financial inclusion standpoint, Mexico remains materially underpenetrated. Only about 50% of adults have at least one financial product compared to Colombia, 90% and Brazil at 80%. Credit card penetration has improved in the last 5 years, up to 23%, but that's still 1/3 of what the U.S. markets are.
At the same time, digitization is accelerating rapidly. Internet penetration continues to rise, driven by mobile access and smartphone adoption, exceeding 70% of all connections in the country. Digital banking usage is expected to double by 2027 from roughly 20% to 40% of adults and e-commerce and digital payments are growing at double-digit rates.
For TransUnion, these trends translate directly into demand. As consumers transact digitally, more lenders acquire customers online, identity verification, fraud prevention, analytics and trust-based engagements become mission-critical. That's why Mexico represents a multiyear runway for growth, not just from expanding credit access, but from increasing solution intensity over time as clients move from basic bureau usage to fraud analytics and marketing.
Our focus in Mexico in the first year is very clear. First, we want to upgrade our client engagement, moving from customers from just report usage to embedding our solutions deeper into their workflows that solve problems and become their trusted advisers. Second, modernize the platform. You heard Venkat talk earlier that we will standardize our global data and migrate to OneTru. And lastly, expand the solution stack, particularly trended data from a credit perspective, fraud and analytics.
This is the same playbook that has worked everywhere else now applied to a market with exceptional structural tailwinds. Transformation. So everything I've discussed so far talks about the growth potential in international, but it becomes more powerful with the transformation that we're undergoing. Transformation is not just an internal efficiency for international. It's actually about unlocking new revenue pools, increasing solution intensity and extending our growth runway across all of our markets.
So let's talk about how transformation augments our proven growth playbook. So we start with what already works, market growth, client engagement, product adjacency, product innovation in the adjacent verticals where we operate. Transformation adds new dimensions for us to each one of those levers. On the solution expansion side, there's significant white space to scale marketing, fraud and communication solutions using the global IP that already exists.
From a technology and a platform perspective and modernization, OneTru standardizes data, identity and analytics across markets. That reduces the repeated local customization. It improves performance and allows us to deploy capabilities in months instead of years. And critically, these 2 reinforce each other, that better platforms enable faster solution rollout and broader solution adoption increases the return on our platform investments.
You heard Chris mention earlier that international is still early in the solution diversification compared to the U.S. We run at about 30% of our total revenue versus 50% in the U.S. We have a plan to diffuse solutions faster through OneTru, and we see a clear path of outsized growth and revenue mix diversification from that.
We've prioritized markets where our solutions provide the greatest benefit to our customers, and we'll be rolling this out through 2026 and 2027. Now you also heard Venkat talk about OneTru at the enterprise level. And let me make it a bit more real for you because this is one of the most important foundations for the next phase of growth for us in international.
Historically, international bureaus have grown through a strong playbook, great client relationships, localized product development, predominantly credit and expanding into adjacent markets. The limitation wasn't demand. The limitation was how quickly we could industrialize and scale innovations across our markets without rebuilding the same capability twice.
OneTru changes that. OneTru is a common global foundation for data, identity, analytics and delivery, so we can build once and deploy across our global markets with consistent performance and controls. There are 3 very practical things this enables for us in international: faster product velocity for all of our global markets; better product performance and consistency at scale that drives better outcomes for our customers; and lastly, materially lower friction to expand the solution stack.
So I'll close with 3 key messages that international is a high-quality, high-growth portfolio with strength in developed and skewed towards attractive emerging markets. Second, that we have a proven growth playbook that consistently outperforms local economies as shown in the Canada example. And third, transformation on OneTru materially expands and accelerates the long-term growth opportunity for us in international. Taken together, we believe that international can easily and sustainably deliver low double-digit growth over the medium term, creating meaningful value for our shareholders.
Let me introduce our CFO, Todd Cello, and he'll walk you through how all of our presentations translate into financial results. Thank you very much.
Okay. Thank you, Todd, and thank you to everyone for your engagement throughout the day. I get to close this out and tell you what this all means from a financial outcome perspective. After everything that you've heard today, I'm certain you're confident about the upward trajectory of TransUnion's business. In the recent years, you, as shareholders, have been with us as we've navigated an uncertain market, but we've continued to drive value and build a better and stronger TransUnion.
So my message for you today, TransUnion's next era positions us for scalable growth and compounding cash flow. I recently celebrated my 28th anniversary with TransUnion, the last 8-plus years I've been the CFO. My tenure has spanned private family ownership, 2 leverage buyouts, an IPO and a continuous evolution of the business.
I am confident as I've ever been about what's ahead, not just as the CFO, but as a long-term shareholder. So with my time today, I'm going to walk you through 3 items. The first is a financial-oriented retrospective of our recent journey that brings us today. Second, a reintroduction of our medium-term financial framework and the drivers behind them. And finally, I will close with why TransUnion is a great investment and a best-in-class information and insights company.
So let's get going. So since our last Investor Day in March of 2022, there's been 2 distinct phases that have impacted the business. So first, in 2022 and 2023, despite a rapid rise in both inflation and interest rates, resulting in declining U.S. lending volumes, we still grew our revenues.
But during this challenging time, we responded proactively by launching our transformation program, voluntarily prepaying debt to reduce our leverage, and we executed on 4 refinancings. In 2024 and 2025, U.S. lending volumes found their bottom and they stabilized.
And what you saw is that we delivered accelerating and broad-based revenue growth during that time. We also delivered on the transformation program that we announced in November of 2023. And we did that both on time and within budget. And most importantly, we secured the $200 million of free cash flow benefit that we originally committed to.
And during this time, we also significantly reduced our leverage ratio and began to deploy a portion of our free cash flow towards share repurchases. So let's zoom out a little bit, and let's take a look at the last 4 years are just a portion of the decade-long track record that we've had of delivering industry-leading growth since we've been a public company.
TransUnion has shown resilience during this period of time throughout varying economic environments, including the COVID-impacted 2020. Overall, we've compounded revenue at high single digits organically. And this is a testament to our purposeful diversification across verticals, geographies and solutions. And during this time, over the last 5 years, we've made investments that laid the foundation for strong compounding earnings.
We deployed $4.8 billion across 5 acquisitions: Neustar, Sontiq, Verisk Financial Services and Monevo added key solution capabilities. Mexico, which you just heard Todd talk about, closed last week, and it represents a highly complementary international credit bureau asset that we've been seeking to acquire for a long time.
So we're really excited to have that asset in the fold. Outside of the inorganic activity, we also invested about $700 million during this time in transformational programs to build out the best-in-class global operating and technology platforms. We completed our onetime spend at the end of 2025 related to these programs, and we do not expect any additional programs going forward.
Neustar was our most transformational investment, and it has created a significant value across the enterprise. In addition to scaling our capabilities in marketing and fraud, Neustar provided us with the OneID technology platform that became OneTru, which you've heard about throughout the morning today.
This is going to be our destination technology platform for all solutions and geographies. So put simply, the pace and the breadth of the innovation that Venkat and Mohamed spoke about earlier, it wouldn't have been possible without Neustar.
So let's take a look at the numbers. At acquisition, Neustar had $115 million of adjusted EBITDA, which was about a 21% margin. Four years later, we doubled adjusted EBITDA to $255 million through revenue growth and cost synergies. The margins now for the Neustar business are in the TransUnion like mid-30s.
In addition, our enterprise-wide technology consolidation onto OneTru has delivered $70 million in savings annually. Venkat gave you all the details about that in his presentation. I think what's really exciting about that is we expect that number to continue to grow as we migrate more countries onto OneTru.
So the net of all of this is Neustar is delivering about $325 million of cash benefits, which brings that 27x multiple back in 2021 down to 10x. I consider that to be a highly compelling cash-on-cash return. The Neustar acquisition along our other transformational actions position us for this next era of TransUnion.
Innovation-led and scalable revenue growth, strong cash generation with balanced and shareholder-friendly capital deployment. So this slide, which Chris introduced earlier today, depicts our value creation flywheel. And I'm going to take you around each section of this flywheel to emphasize the drivers. But before I do, just to highlight, our growth and what you've heard so far, it's increasingly diversified, and we're embedding ourselves deeper into our customers' workflows to solve their increasingly complex problems.
We're going to scale the business through the revenue flow-through, cost savings from our continued technology modernization, but there's also further operational productivity benefits that we're going to be able to enjoy by leveraging AI. And our strong free cash flow is going to increase capacity for capital deployment.
So I want to dig into each one of these. So the manifestation of the value creation flywheel is our medium-term financial framework. Revenue, we expect to be high single-digit organic growth, and this excludes the no-margin FICO mortgage royalty. So earlier, you heard from Jamal talk about our core credit market. It's mature, but it's very growthful.
You heard Brian Silver and Steve Yin and Jimmy Garvert talk about the significant opportunity and the right to win that we have in the multibillion-dollar marketing and fraud markets. Just a little while ago, Steve Chaouki walked you through how our diversified products, coupled with domain expertise, drive growth across the vertical markets. And right before I came on, you heard from Todd Skinner, and he walked you through the huge opportunity in our international markets, which skews to emerging markets and has a long way to diffuse our intellectual property.
From a margin perspective, we're expecting 50 basis points of annual margin expansion. So like what I just talked about with revenue, this excludes the FICO mortgage royalty pass-through. And then finally, adjusted diluted EPS, we expect low to mid-teens growth, and this is inclusive of the benefit from accelerated capital deployment.
So let's look at a summary of the growth targets by the solution families that you already heard earlier today. So we believe credit, marketing and fraud can all grow single -- or high single digit or greater. Consumer Solutions will be a mid-single-digit grower, powered by a unified global platform and our freemium offering stabilizing our U.S. direct business.
There's still some work to do here. However, we're confident that we have the right strategy, the right capabilities and the right people in place to make this growth a reality. This slide looks at our expected growth from a market lens. So for U.S. markets, we expect financial services and emerging verticals to grow high single digits. And we expect the Consumer Interactive business to grow mid-single digit.
I want to pause there because what's important about these targets is they're grounded in what we've already built and what we're executing on today. So that's important to remember, especially when I get to EPS in a moment. The other thing that's important is there's no assumption of any type of U.S. lending volume recovery in these targets. So think about it as stable and where we're at today. So a good example of that would be U.S. mortgage. Any type of recovery would be upside to these targets.
From an international perspective, we expect low double-digit growth. We believe strongly in the track record of this portfolio, great opportunity in the key emerging markets, which you already heard about with India and Mexico. So let's move along the value creation flywheel, and let's talk about scale.
We expect to continue to deliver healthy underlying margin expansion from revenue growth and structural savings opportunities. And as we noted in our February earnings call, given that the FICO mortgage royalties impact revenue but not profit, we believe the best way to judge underlying performance is to exclude these numbers from our margin calculations.
So when you look at it on this basis, you could see that we have significantly expanded our margins from 2023's level at 35.8% to the high end of our guidance in 2026 at 38.2%. That's 240 basis points of margin expansion during that period of time. And I want to take a second here and just look at what we've been doing during that time, going from '23 to '24, the 35.8% to 37.1% expansion was the first benefit from our transformation program as we optimized our operating model and we're able to secure significant efficiencies in how we do our work by centralizing and standardizing work.
The other area to highlight would be '25 to '26, and you see a significant amount of margin expansion there. That's the completion of our tech modernization. So as I said earlier, the benefits that we enjoyed from our transformation, you're seeing right here. And the last point that I would leave you with on this margin is that this is with kind of a tepid U.S. lending market.
And if you know anything about credit transactions, they're highly profitable. So again, to what I was saying earlier, any type of recovery is going to have a high flow-through to margin, thus having a favorable impact here. So going forward, we expect to deliver 50 basis points of expansion per year while also balancing that with thoughtful investments to be able to sustain the top line revenue growth.
Our investments in building scalable and global technology and operating platforms position us for continued cost savings. So from a technology perspective, we're going to deploy OneTru across all of our geographies to enhance solutions. And we'll fund those investments within the normal course of business. Each migration eliminates a siloed technology stack and lowers maintenance cost.
More importantly, and this is why we're doing it, is the true global platform will enable us to deploy our intellectual property faster to innovate and drive revenue growth. From an operating model perspective, I just spoke about this when I was talking about margin. Our focus here is centralization and standardization of work.
We're going to leverage the TruOps operational platform that Chris spoke about earlier today to drive positive customer outcomes, but also operating efficiencies. And we're going to do that by leveraging the global capability centers that are at the center of this strategy, home to about 5,700 of our over 13,000 associates. These centers have evolved into true innovation hubs for us. And these platforms will enable us to deliver more value from AI by deploying rapidly and at scale.
Earlier, you heard from Venkat talk about one of the big successes thus far has been OneTru Assist, and that's our AI developer tool. We're already seeing a 25% to 30% productivity lift using those tools. The second area where we've been able to leverage AI to drive efficiencies is within the consumer experience.
We've deployed generative AI for consumer disputes, resulting in a more effective experience for the consumer, but we also enjoy a 20% productivity gain as a result of that. So we're going to continue to push AI across the enterprise to drive process improvements as well as automation.
So let's move to the last piece of the value creation flywheel. Let's talk about deploy. And as I said initially at the beginning of my remarks, TransUnion's next era positions us for scalable growth and compounding cash flow. The combination of scaling earnings and no onetime spend for investments means we expect the strongest cash generation in TransUnion's history over the coming years, which obviously provides capacity for capital returns.
And as you can see on the left-hand side of this slide, we continue to expect a 90% plus free cash flow conversion. And then based on the growth algorithm that I just took you through, we expect that we'll be able to generate about $3 billion in free cash flow from 2026 to 2028. And here's how we're thinking about deploying this cash over the next several years.
We expect an increased bias towards shareholder returns going forward while making sure our leverage ratio is at or below our target of 2.5x. We're going to continue to grow our dividend alongside our earnings, and we'll do that within the payout ratio of 10% to 15%. And as we demonstrated in 2025, we plan to increasingly deploy our cash to repurchase shares.
We expect the pace of repurchases to only increase as cash generation builds. And with that said, we're equally focused on disciplined and active management of our balance sheet. We remain on a glide path to an investment-grade credit rating in the coming years, which we feel is appropriate for a business of our size and maturity. And we're also going to continue to look for ways to optimize our debt stack and prepay debt when appropriate.
And regarding M&A, you've heard a lot throughout the day that we have a high conviction that we have a generation of growth ahead of us. So that means that the bar for M&A is very high. We're not seeking large-scale acquisitions, but only highly strategic bolt-ons. We provided the slide that's up now during our February 2025 earnings call alongside our refreshed capital allocation framework.
The slide remains unchanged, like any good strategic M&A slide should. So our focus on M&A continues to be on non-U.S. credit bureaus, like you heard Todd Skinner talk about with the Mexico acquisition. We're always looking for data assets centered around enhancing our consumer identity capabilities. And then we're looking for complementary capabilities for core solutions, like the pending acquisition of the mobile division of RealNetworks to bring text messaging capabilities to our trusted call solutions. M&A options will always be compared to every alternative to ensure the best return for shareholders.
To close out the financial review, we are very confident in the compounding growth algorithm with several sources of upside that could make our earnings even higher. So in 2026, the high end of our guidance assumes $4.71 of adjusted diluted EPS. For illustrative purposes, if we deliver on our new medium-term guidance of low to mid-teens adjusted diluted EPS through 2028, EPS would be $6 plus. But there's more. Any benefit from an eventual recovery in mortgage would be in addition to this.
So if we just simply assumed mortgage volumes from 2019, if we return to that level, that would be $1 of benefit to EPS over this period of time. And in addition, on the right hand of this side, we laid out what we believe to be other opportunities to continue to grow our adjusted diluted EPS.
The first is normalization of non-mortgage U.S. lending volumes. We talked about mortgage, obviously, is a big source, but there's more that could be there in auto and credit card and banking as well based on the historical trends.
Adoption of VantageScore is a source for us from a profitability perspective. The further scaling of our platforms and our solutions is another. Remember what I said earlier that we're not assuming any material volume uptick and the targets assume what we have built today, not a bet on something that's going to be built in the future. So that's an important point.
And then as I talked about in scale, we're going to be relentless in our approach towards leveraging AI to drive growth and productivity. So simply put, the earnings power at TransUnion is stronger than it's ever been. So before I bring my colleagues up to start Q&A, any good stock pitch finishes with a reiteration of the thesis.
So the management team has high conviction in what TransUnion has built and continues to build. We have the right combination of unique data, powerful technology and deep domain expertise to continue winning in the market. Our interrelated solution sets suit solve our customers' most pressing needs, and our products are getting better and better.
We have clearly inflected into a period of accelerated innovation and scalable growth. And AI is an accelerant. It's going to accelerate demand for our data, empowering us to do more and to do it better for customers and enabling the efficiency across the enterprise.
So the net of all of this is TransUnion is a structurally higher return business with a repeatable earnings model, durable growth, expanding margins and disciplined capital deployment, driving compounding earnings power. Our momentum is real. The opportunity in front of us is significant, and we are just getting started. Thank you for your time.
All right. No questions or... All right. All right. Let's start with Mr. Steinerman here.
Hang on. Before we start, and I appreciate all the enthusiasm. I'm good. I just want to call out to you -- you noticed the music selection. That was Can You Feel It by the Jacksies. I'm Head of Strategy, Martin, there is a college DJ, and he's responsible for all of this music. So I just thought I'd -- thank you for setting the tone and can you guys feel it.
2. Question Answer
Okay. Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan. I really appreciate how your team laid out the organic revenue growth, high single digit over the medium term by both geography and by verticals. I think of info services companies build up differently. And I was just wondering if you'd willing to build up for us how to get to high single digits by thinking about what's your volume assumption? I kind of heard it wasn't a notable volume assumption, pricing, pricing for your products, retention and cross-selling of products to make the high single-digit organic revenue growth profile.
Okay. Well, thanks for the question, and we'll take kind of a team approach to answering some of these so we can give you the fulsome answers. Well, look, on the fly, I'm not going to reconstruct that in the manner that you just described, but I definitely understand where you're coming from.
A couple of points that Todd emphasized in his kind of walk up to $6 and then $7 per share with mortgage normalized. We're not assuming any inflection to the positive in volumes at this point. We're still dealing with a market that is stable and muted. As one of you said in one of your notes, it's just an okay market right now.
So if we do return to the longer-term lending volume trend lines in the U.S., in the U.K., in India, where there are some policy-inflicted wounds and all of that, that's EPS upside to the $7 per share, right?
And then that's in addition to the acceleration of revenue that we expect as we roll out this platform to markets around the world, the profitability improvements that we expect because of all of the ways in which standardization and platforms and AI are going to help us be more productive.
So not a big -- not like an enthusiastic or an unrealistic volume assumption, quite the opposite, very conservative. Now pricing, pricing is individual market, individual product. I do think that our pricing leverage is going to increase substantially as we start selling more multiple products, more solutions, more integrations, et cetera, based on OneTru to all of our clients, right? So price has not been a huge part of our story.
But the markets themselves are pretty high growth and compounding. And as you saw some of the various TAMs that we showed over the course of the day, there's a lot of runway, right? We're in no danger of tapping out in these markets anytime soon. So what I would say is a fairly down the middle and conservative guide, if you will, gets us to $7, but there's any number of additions to that $7 depending on how things develop. And of course, what's in our control is the pace and effectiveness of rolling out the platforms. That's going to drive us north of $7 a share.
And do you think maybe the cross-selling would be the biggest of all those and much on volume, [indiscernible]
Well, look, near high single-digit compounding in all of our solution markets is a big driver. A completely reimagined product on this platform, massive amount of cross-sell and more price juice there. So I definitely would expect that.
And then look, AI enablement, our ability to deliver analytics at scale to improve the frequency of analytic delivery, so clients aren't revisiting their credit origination models every 3 years because it's so hard. We can evolve into a world where that is more consistently done annually, quarterly, continually, right?
So it unlocks a lot of potential and a lot of volume growth there. And again, I think that's all -- I mean, Todd tried to say at best. The projections that we outlined for the medium term, that's the business that we have today. It's the business that we've already built. As all this innovation rolls out, it's a step function improvement for the business of the future.
We'll do Kelsey and then -- Toni and then Kelsey.
Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley. Historically, the bureaus have enjoyed the moat of lenders providing the data to the 3 of you. Today, you talked a lot about the alternative data piece of the pie. I guess how does the moat on alternative data compare? You said a couple of times that it's proprietary, you combined it into the 95%. So just explain the proprietariness, talk about the sources and why aren't others able to get this data or are they, but combining it with your other data makes it sort of even more special.
Yes. Great. Well, look, as many of you know, I've been in information services for a long time. Typically after 50 years, products peak in their value and start to compound at inflationary rates. That's not the case in the credit market because clients are so hungry for differentiated signal to make better decisions to solve really big problems. Mohamed talked about the size of the problems that incremental data sets can be really valuable.
Now you're talking about the moats around it. Let's talk about some specifics. One of our biggest extensions in the credit space was going downward, down the risk spectrum and starting to get coverage from payday lenders and from online unsecured lending, et cetera.
There are lots and lots of people in America who are taking on those types of loans and by and large, repaying them exactly with the terms. Now that's additive. But still, you got to go to a lot of different places in order to aggregate it. You have to be trusted by the market, right? These individual lenders just don't give that data to anybody. And again, there is the regulatory moats and the regulatory -- and litigation penalties if you don't do it right. The same is going to be true on utilities furnishing, rental furnishing, a whole variety of other datasets. Perhaps you want to elaborate or...
Yes. So I mean, within the credit ecosystem, it follows a very similar path to traditional credit furnishing, and there are thousands of them, I think 10,000. I mean it's a lot. So it's the same normalization, management, linking. We have to be able to link these credibly across all the different datasets. These are very difficult things to do accurately. You think how many John Smiths there are, even within New York City, even probably within a couple of blocks in New York City, like getting this level of fidelity and then doing it all over the world, it becomes a very important part.
Similar to our fraud assets, like you talk about device. Device is a give-to-get consortium, you join this, you give your device data and then we build out the largest network of devices, I believe we're in every country in the world because fraudulent devices exist in every country in the world. We may not be getting revenue in every country in the world, but we're tracking them everywhere they are. And these are billions and billions of devices that are coming into us regularly. So this is -- while that may not be traditional credit per se, it follows a similar kind of pattern.
Yes. And look, these markets need a neutral party and a trusted party to act as the aggregators between all of the different potential contributors, be it banks or insurance companies or phone carriers, et cetera. And so that's the role that we fill.
This is Kelsey Zhu from Autonomous. Chris, maybe you can talk a little bit more about your decision on cutting VantageScore pricing and what you're hearing from lenders in terms of potential adoption rates, but also what you're hearing from Director Pulte for implementation time line for VantageScore and FICO 10T, as well as if there's any updates on the tri-merge single file conversation.
Was there a cut of VantageScore pricing? I haven't. No. No, obviously, yesterday was an exciting day in credit reporting. We don't get many days like that very often. And we led the group by issuing new $0.99 pricing on VantageScore 4.0, which is a material reduction from where we had been in the market at $4 a share.
And look, stepping back a little bit, we look at this as a generational opportunity that we've got, again, enabled by the FHFA and Director Pulte, but to kind of reset the economic value around scores versus data. Now as we've argued for many quarters now, the inherent value, it's all about the data, right? No data, no score. The quality of the data determines the predictiveness and the accuracy of the score.
Now somehow in mortgage, and it's not somehow, it's because of limited choices, the value proposition got turned upside down, right? And we're all kind of, I think, familiar with that story. So we look back -- we looked at it and looked at a variety of factors and decided that we wanted to take advantage, full advantage of the opportunity that Director Pulte and the FHFA had created to bring real choice on scores into the market because lenders have not had a choice up to this point, also to reduce the cost of mortgage affordability as part of the overall kind of affordability agenda of this administration, which is great, and again, to reset the economic value. And so right now, we're just trying to facilitate as rapid adoption of Vantage 4.0 as possible.
And look, the market needs it. The incumbent score hasn't innovated in 20 years. It's not based on trended data. It doesn't use any alternative data like utilities or rental payments or other things like that. And that means that there's an inefficiency around who gets approved, who gets rejected, the size of the market, the overall safety and soundness, right? So we need to modernize the scores. So for all of those reasons, we decided to eliminate really any obstacle to market adoption and share shift.
Now in terms of dynamics with the government and all of that, I mean, it's been -- let's be clear. FICO has had a monopoly over scoring in mortgage inadvertently, created years ago, decades ago, but in fact, it has been a monopoly. A lot of directors of the FHFA had a chance to change that, none did, but Pulte did to his credit in this administration. And so we are greasing the skids for rapid market adoption, right?
Now the FHFA needs to deliver on some remaining logistical issues in order to support the full scaling of adoption. We're encouraged that they're already experimenting and they already have been accepting loans at one of the GSEs and securitizing those loans based on Vantage in the marketplace, right? And I think this is our effort to accelerate that overall process.
Now the fact that our competitors responded so quickly in the same day just means that we're all focused on it. We all see the same market opportunity and societal need, and we're full throttle toward implementation.
Let's go with Faiza and then Ashish.
I just want to thank you all for providing so much information in the deck around revenues by business solution and regions and all of that. So I hesitate to ask the question because I don't want to discourage disclosure. But I do want to ask about the opportunity around marketing solutions within financial services because it does sound like there's been an inflection within marketing solutions, but it's not as apparent on the financial services side. So I'm just curious, kind of what's the dynamic behind that? Is it just timing? Is it sales resources? Just a bit more color around that opportunity and kind of what you're seeing there would be helpful.
So I'm going to let Steve talk about the adoption of marketing solutions in financial services in the U.S., and then Todd can speak from an international perspective. But thank you. Thank you for noticing the inflection point in our growth rates in marketing.
When we acquired Neustar, we believed we could grow high single digits and then get it to low double-digit compounding. We delivered kind of mid-teens growth in the fourth quarter, kind of walked that back. There were some big jobs there that perhaps took it up a bit, but there's no guarantee we won't have those big jobs again this year, but we thought we'd be conservative. But I think the performance of marketing in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter, it just demonstrates how growthful this market is.
Now it's taken us some time to pull all the right assets together in that kind of end-to-end workflow that I described, right? We started off with 90 different point solutions. Now we have integrated it down to a clean workflow that has a beginning and that has an end. You can use the entirety of the workflow or you can just get the piece that you want, depending on your needs, lots of ways to monetize, a lot of ways to win. That's why you saw the growth. Now financial services?
Yes. Look. So there are two reasons why we're growing. One is we are penetrating the markets where we are effectively and two is the great work that Brian and the marketing team did to create a solution that is more sellable and consumable by our customers.
I don't want to misquote, but many, if not most, of the large financial institutions and insurance providers who are our customers, which are pretty much all of them, are using some form of marketing solutions from us now. And we have the opportunity to continue to upsell many more into them. And we have unique integrated capabilities straddling both the credit space and the marketing space that allow us to deliver value to regulated institutions who use credit in their underwriting, which extends beyond just financial services and insurance to things like cell phones and other kinds of utility providers usually go down the list. And we are able to provide unique signal and unique measurement capabilities for them as well as unique audiences and better ways to reach their customers. So we are much more effective now with the marketing solutions in that space.
As the fraud solutions come to bear that you're seeing now, the same thing is happening there. I think fraud is about 1.5 years behind marketing in terms of its evolution of product, and we're very excited about the things that are going to come forth in fraud as well with a similar customer base and expanding the base of customers who are buying these new solutions from us.
Yes. I would just say a couple of things. So first of all, we're early in the Marketing Solutions selling process in the international space. We're working with Brian Silver's team. We have created in 2025, just started building an international sales team. And so that international sales team from creation to the end of the year has been able to generate roughly $15 million in pipeline going across 5 different markets.
So what's really important about that is they're selling directly into the countries that they're operating in and supporting a few markets like into the U.K. and Canada to develop that Marketing Solution Services in the market. I think what Steve talks about in the U.S., you'll begin to see in the international markets over the coming years.
This is Ashish Sabadra from RBC Capital Markets. Great presentation. I wanted to focus on the $500 million of innovation revenue over the next 3 years. I was wondering if you could drill down further on that in terms of the time line. Is that going to be back-end loaded or throughout the 3-year period? Any color on how do we think about like whether it's from pricing, upsell, cross-sell versus new logos, similar to the question Andrew asked.
But also, how should we think about the proliferation of agentic commerce because that's a question that we get a lot as consumers start to interface through agents rather than directly, could that be a potential tailwind or a headwind to that $500 million of innovation revenue?
So two questions there, right? It's the $500 million, and then we can talk through the agentic.
Yes. Let me at least answer the $500 million. So the $500 million is part of our 3-year plan and the process that we built. So the numbers that Todd has sort of shared with us already includes that number. And the number is coming from enhancements to existing products where we've identified incremental revenues, but as well as new products. So for every new product before we decide to invest in building the product, we obviously will build a business case around it to identify the value.
So the exciting thing here is that, I mean, the timing is -- think of it as sort of spread out, obviously, a little bit more in the year 2, year 3 versus year 1, given the development time line. But some of the enhancements will be delivered this year and are going to already -- some of them like credit washing is already delivering real results for us this year.
What I will tell you is what's exciting here is the pace of innovation, right? So the message is the number that you're seeing is based on the work that we're doing in 2026. Our goal is to continue to accelerate the innovation and deliver even more next year and the year after that. So on the agentic, I don't know.
Yes. Steve, maybe you want to share your thoughts on how agentic AI is going to impact demand for identity and others of our services.
Yes. Look, I think it was said earlier, so I'll reiterate it. Agentic AI is a very positive thing for us.
Why is it a positive thing? We think of our customers kind of in three segments. There's the most sophisticated, the biggest ones, the ones who spend the most with us, we call it do it myself. They are big banks with lots of resources. They want to do everything themselves. And the middle section is called do it with me, still pretty sophisticated, many household names, but they need more help from us. And a large, small segment that's do it for me, and they do basic things, perhaps as simple as score-based underwriting, which is not a great idea, like not the best thing to do. But we think that agentic AI is going to expand the top two segments. And those are the bigger spend segments with us. It will increase consumption of our data because agents can now consume the data instead of people.
The biggest like bottleneck to getting revenue and delivering on sales is not selling power or TransUnion's capabilities. It's getting our customers to validate, consume, understand, go through their governance processes. All these things just take a long time. And the more you can automate those things, the more you can consume, the better off we all are.
You can just -- here's a simple example. Many, many years ago, perhaps -- not perhaps, like refreshes on your portfolios were probably done quarterly. Then they moved to monthly. Now sophisticated players moved to daily on the triggers. When you go from quarterly to monthly, you don't get 3x as much money. You get more, though, like we charge more, but we give them a volume discount. And when you go from monthly to daily, we charge even more in aggregate.
We're going to have more customers who are able to do that kind of stuff to go from model refreshes every few years to model refreshes a few times a year or maybe even more often than that to consuming data periodically to consuming data continuously. Lots of really exciting opportunities for us using our agents, but also using their agents, too. And that's okay. Like they're still going to need to buy the data in order to power those agents.
So we're very excited about it. In fact, we're already starting to see it with certain customers. Not a lot, but we're seeing customers increase their consumption, speed up their validations. And I think it's just the tip of the iceberg. It's going to go pretty quickly when it goes.
Yes. And look, that's a great lens on the credit part of the business, and you can see how agentic AI is going to improve the velocity or the frequency and all of that. But already if you look at marketing, marketing models are refreshed much more frequently, right? And in fraud, I mean, you just can't refresh them frequently enough. And with AI and agents, including bad guy agents running all over the cyber world, there's going to be a tremendous, I think, increase in demand for authoritative information that leads to really good prediction and outcomes that is refreshed as frequently as possible.
Let's go down this row here, Jeff, Andrew, Brendan.
Jeff Meuler, Baird. So when I see the acceleration in marketing in 2025, I want to tie it to kind of all of the transformation and product or platform consolidation. I don't see the same acceleration in fraud, which I would think would be benefiting from similar factors. It continues to have good growth, but not acceleration. So is there any reason why the benefit would be more pronounced in marketing today than fraud?
And then on marketing international, I know you talked about building out the sales force, but it's really small as a percentage of revenue, and you have a lot of like Fortune 100 customers that operate globally. Are there any other missing pieces to really unlock that opportunity like you need more local customer data or something like that?
Yes. Good questions. So first, on the rate of growth in marketing and in fraud. So with all the assets that we acquired when we were restructuring the portfolio, it took varying lengths of time to bring them all together and create the new product offering, if you will. And as Steve just mentioned, in terms of commercializing the goodness that resulted from that, fraud is a year or 18 months behind marketing. Now it's already growing at a nice rate, but fraud and marketing have the potential to compound in the low teens and perhaps even better if we execute well. So be patient. I think you're going to continue to see fraud revenues accelerate.
In terms of marketing and rolling it out around all of our different geographies, the rules -- well, the state of the marketing game in different countries varies based on regulations and industry practices and the availability of data. In the -- in advance of rolling out the OneTru platform, our teams like in the U.K. or in India are working to pull together the types of data that we need to fuel our marketing solutions.
And so first, we've got to finish converting the U.S. over to the OneTru platform. That's the focus of this year, right? And it's going to have an enormous impact because the U.S. is still about 78% of our global revenues. But then we're going to go to these other markets that have attractive potential for our solutions, and they're doing the prep necessary to get new products in market and to start scaling them quickly once we land.
Andrew Nicholas with William Blair. I wanted to ask a question on Consumer Interactive. I think the guide for this year is low single-digit decline. The medium-term target is mid-single digits. So I guess the first part is, should we expect that to accelerate even beyond the mid-single digit in '27 and '28 and we kind of aggregate to a mid-single-digit growth rate?
And second, it sounds like you've gotten even more customers than you expected onto this platform. You're fleshing out the offers capability, monetization is a little bit later. How should we think about kind of the phasing of that and how long that process takes, at least as the way you're thinking about it strategically?
Okay. Great. Well, thank you for reiterating the guide. And you're right. No, it's not a problem. It's like -- let's start with that. That's a representation of kind of this is where we are. Mohamed, why don't you talk about what we're building and where we're going?
Yes. Well, first of all, I -- as I mentioned, we are the leader in the B2B2C space in the consumer business. And in the international markets where we're primarily focused on that and even in the U.S., we are growing at a faster clip. Actually, international is growing at double digits for us, and we're expecting that to continue.
So the opportunity for us here is the work that we've done to unify and consolidate a lot of these solutions together and to be able to deliver on a better experience and enhance our solutions. We just hired a new leader for our Consumer Solutions business globally, Francesca. She just joined us from Capital One, where she was leading the consumer business there. And she's coming in and she's helping us essentially replicate the kind of work that we talked about in marketing, the kind of work that we're already doing in fraud and doing the same thing in consumer.
The challenge is some of the fragmentation, bringing that together, making sure we're delivering the solutions in a timely fashion and getting that right consistently. That's how we're going to unlock the value. But we see a lot of potential in consumer. So to your point, is -- the long-term vision, is that for us to get it -- to keep it mid digits? I mean, look, obviously, our goal is, we think there's a lot of potential, and we're going to lean in to try to capture that potential for that business.
Yes. Look, I think that's right. And a slightly different spin on it is, obviously, we talked about a lot of platforms in our day. It was a platform-centric kind of presentation, and Mohamed is alluding to yet one more. The consumer platform, the global consumer platform, that's the core of our consumer enablement.
And our strategy is to be an enabler in the consumer business, right? So it's a B2B2C play, and we are the largest player in the U.S., but there's opportunity to enable other businesses to tap into consumer markets in countries around the world. That's why we built the platform. That's why it's one of our four core product solutions. And it's a different play from spending a lot to build a direct consumer brand, right? And that's not our business, right? We think those needs are well met in the U.S., but we can enable a lot of other players to capitalize on their brands and their marketing spend.
Brendan.
It's Brendan Popson from Barclays. I just wanted to ask if -- Todd, if there's any way to quantify the margin sensitivity as it pertains to credit volumes from that 50 bps expansion expected? And then also, you clearly -- it sounds like you're expecting noncredit to become a bigger part of your business over time but still planning on 50 bps expansion. I know in the past, there's been sometimes some modest mix headwinds. So is there -- is this just simply a matter of OneTru or anything else you can call out on why you still have that confidence even as -- even if noncredit becomes a little bit bigger over time?
Yes. Thanks for the question, Brendan. So I think what -- probably best is if you recall the slide that I presented with the margin expansion. And one of the key points that I was making, I think it's Slide 137 or something like that, if I remember. But if we -- if you go back to that page because I think you guys all have print-outs, like think of the underlying -- it was 137.
Think about the underlying credit volumes during that period of right? And they were relatively subdued, right? Mortgage went down significantly. Card and banking have been doing okay. Recently, we've seen consumer lending take off and auto has also been kind of tepid. We posted that type of margin expansion with core credit volumes being lower than like a historical run rate.
And what's happened is we've seen the mix of our -- to your question, the mix of our products has also changed as well, too, especially newer products that initially might carry a lower margin, but ultimately, the way that we plan for our products is that they're going to scale and have a margin that's ultimately higher than TransUnion's margin. So during this period of time, we were dealing with that, and we were still able to deliver really significant margin expansion.
Clearly, there were some productivity programs in there. So in my prepared remarks, I talked -- I highlighted '23 to '24, and then I highlighted '25 to '26, but look at what happened between '24 and '25, right? We still grew 40 basis points, really didn't have a benefit from a productivity program in those years, right? So that gets to -- again, if you look at the subdued kind of lending volumes, we were still able to expand margins, I think, meaningfully during that period of time.
So what we're trying to do with this guide is be very balanced in regards to how much margin that we want to be able to show on an annual basis, but also be very thoughtful about how much reinvestment we want to make back in the business. I mean you've clearly heard today a high degree of conviction from this team about what's ahead of us.
My job as the CFO is I got to figure out how do we make certain that we continuing to fund these things, right? Because the runway that we have is real. So there's a constant tension, which is a good thing within the organization to figure out what the right balance is on the margin.
So look, this is a really important point, and we want to make sure that we're understood. And it's great now that we can show our margins with and without FICO, which has distorted our margins.
So some investors in recent years have asked whether the business still has the same operational leverage that it once did because to the blue bars here, you would see flattish margin progression after the cost takeout program. But again, that's because the overall margins were being distorted by disproportionate price increases by FICO. If you strip that out, you see that over this period, we increased margins by 240 bps, pretty good in a really difficult environment, which was not a robust credit environment and lower credit volume has a high decremental margin impact on the business. And at the same time, we were integrating other solutions like marketing and fraud that had lower margin, and we were bringing it up.
So having done all of that work and with those headwinds, to grow margins 240 bps in the period, I think, is impressive. And that gives us confidence to project 50 bps a year improvement, which to Todd's point, is balanced. It's balanced between margin harvesting but continued investment in the business.
Let's go, Curt and then Jason.
Curt Nagle, Bank of America. Todd, maybe just going back to that point you just made about margin progression and noncredit versus credit. Could you go a little bit more into detail in terms of -- for those noncredit products in terms of what's driving that accretion? I guess was the point more just a maturation and then deployment of product versus higher inherent margins? And then maybe just talk through, if we could, underlying assumptions on India growth for that low double-digit growth?
Okay. So I'll take that. That's a very different question. So I'm going to let Todd take that one. But let me start high level with -- when we look at our solution profitability, first of all, every single one of them carries a margin higher than TransUnion's adjusted EBITDA margin, right? So in many cases, meaningfully. Credit, to the point I was just making to Brendan's question is the highest margin, right? But other products that we sell where maybe we have to purchase some data as an example, it's going to have an impact on the margin but not that significant. These contribution margins are very attractive to us, right? So that's kind of a broad perspective when you just think about the solution suites themselves.
What I was referring to was more of a product early in maturity and that there is a little bit of a ramp-up period during that time and that in that period of time, margins aren't going to be at a TransUnion like. That's the investment that we're making. So our job as a management team is to place those bets and make certain that you as shareholders, don't see them, right? And that we're -- and I'm not trying to be facetious there, but that's the balance, though, right, that we're trying to continue to grow, but then how do we fund it is really what I'm getting at there. So that's how -- that's what I meant. It's more of a maturity thing. So hopefully, that clarifies.
And so any of these solutions are very attractive, right, from a contribution margin perspective. There was some macroeconomic noise, though, in this period that impacted the margins of some of the newer solutions. So in the '22 time frame with the spike in inflation, the spike in rates and the decline in lending volumes, on the marketing side of the house, businesses were squeezing hard too, right? So there were fewer campaigns, which meant less identity resolution and less audiences. And those are two of our more profitable areas, right?
Now that we've stabilized and we're starting to come back, that growth and the flow-through from those products is also improving the margins, the contribution margin and the overall margin of the marketing business.
So Curt, on the India story, I assume you're good on the back story. You kind of understand how we got to where we are today and you're more interested going forward. Yes. So a couple of things I would say. So we've guided single digits through the rest of this year. What I can tell you is that early in the year, we see our online volumes and the expectations that we have, we see it coming back. It's still a bit bumpy, and I think that's normal from a market that's coming back.
I think it goes back to the thesis that we've covered today, right, which is around innovative new solutions. So we're launching TruIQ in the marketplace at the end of this month. We have eight customers and a pipeline built for them to consume the product. Back to Steve's point, as customers start to use our solutions that have AI enabled, I think you're going to see more data consumption that comes from that. In particular, India is moving towards data frequency on a daily basis from a consumption basis or from a -- providing it to us. And I think that will flow back to customers from a consumption perspective.
The second thing I would say is that from -- on a credit side, we're building scores on a regular basis. We built our Grameen score, which is for rural populations. We've rebuilt our MSME score. We're enhancing our current commercial and CreditVision trended scores with alternative data that we get through our Consumer Interactive business. So in the core business, we see credit coming back.
Now the other things I would add is that India from a marketing perspective and a fraud perspective are early stages. Steve talked about our global fraud solutions. Up until about 3 months ago, we were unsure of the data privacy in India that restricted our ability to use that global platform that was situated in the U.S. Now that, that has cleared the hurdle, we see a lot of customers talking to us. I mentioned that we have one of the big private banks buy a 5-year IPI deal from the global fraud solution that's based in the U.S. We believe we'll see more of that coming along.
I also mentioned that we talked about marketing solutions in the marketplace, one of the largest Indian retailers, one of the largest OEMs. We also have a couple from the region that we're servicing. One is a large aircraft -- an airline that services the area. We see lots of traction that will slowly come. It's a new market in India, but we're getting in very early from a marketing perspective.
And then lastly, Jimmy talked about Trusted Call Solutions. If you look at the Indian market, fraud is call scams, fraud is prevalent. And we're having conversations with all the major telecoms around the solution that we have. I think they see the benefit in India as they do in Brazil, Canada, U.S. and the U.K.
Jason Haas from Wells Fargo. I'm curious if you're seeing any growing interest from your customers in cash flow underwriting and if there's any way for you guys to be able to play in that space more and capitalize on it?
Yes and yes.
Go ahead, Steve.
Yes. So there is -- of course, it's been an interesting thing for them for some time, especially fintechs and certain ones. It works well in certain categories. I don't think it's a universal thing. It's not -- for example, in credit cards, it's not overly valuable. It's not -- income in general is not overly valuable in credit cards. In the high end of auto, it's not, but in the more sensitive parts of auto, it is. And in larger loans, it is. And so I think there's definitely good interest from our customers, and we are working with them on a variety of different fronts to help enable that. We'll have more to come, I guess, in the future.
All right. Let's go with Surinder, Ryan, and then we can wrap it up.
Following up on the first question about just putting together the financial framework for especially the revenue guide here. Given that the recent conservatism in how you've been beating in the past year or so the 12 months, the 18 months of the past year, what is the lens that we should apply to the framework that you've provided here? Is the idea that with 0 volume growth and given those other assumptions that aren't in there, that this is a conservative number that you should hit? Or is this more realistic in terms of the expectations? And then what's kind of the puts and takes outside of those other assumptions?
Yes. So I think that our guidance philosophy is always centered around providing the market what we have a high degree of certainty to and then orienting investors to the high end of that to that guidance, right? So in essence, what the long-term guide is doing is it's keeping stability. So I'm glad you asked the question because I never said 0 volume growth. I said stable. And clearly, there has been stable growth, and we expect that to continue. So that's a really important clarifying point. So hopefully, we all got that, right? So that's what we're looking for.
And then the second part of it really goes to the question we had earlier about the $500 million that Mohamed presented right? Like what I said when I gave the medium-term guide, we're -- the guide has only got what we've built so far as well in there. It doesn't have the incremental benefit of the scaling of these solutions that we went through throughout the morning. So what I'd like you to take away from this is we're putting a guide out in the medium term that we have a strong conviction that we're going to be able to deliver on.
And when I went through the EPS slide where I took the high end of the 2026 guide and did the illustrative example to walk you to $6, but more importantly, $7, the right hand of that slide is really where you should be focused at because that's where the outperformance is at. So medium-term guide is consistent with a guide that you get for us from a quarter or for the full year. It's grounded in what we have visibility and conviction in today with levers for outperformance.
Yes. And so a couple of additional tidbits. I think part of what you're asking is we've put out this medium-term financial framework. And should you expect that we're going to outperform the high end of that guide by the same degree that we've been outperforming our guide in '24 and '25. That wasn't our intention, okay?
I would also point out that, that guide is at the top of guidance in our market and also in information services. So it's a strong guide, but it's a guide that we have confidence and conviction in, but it's in a higher bar than we had, say, in 2024 when we guided then.
And then we outlined at least half a dozen ways, half a dozen opportunities to create upside based on all the innovation that we showed you today. And then, of course, part of it is macro. I mean in a more certain environment with more favorable interest rates or just stability, I would expect loan volumes to increase beyond what's [ assumed, ] but we didn't bake any of that acceleration of volume to Todd's point and all. So hopefully, that gives you the color you were looking for.
Ryan Griffin from BMO Capital Markets. I just had a quick question on fraud and marketing. I think you said that those businesses could compound in the low teens and even better if you execute well. I was just wondering what degree that depends on the cyclicality of those markets. And then in a prior question, you also referenced that the FHFA, one of the GSEs is accepting the loans and securitizing. Can you unpack that comment a little bit more as well?
Okay. So we'll handle those separately. But first, in terms of the cyclical risk of our revenue performance in marketing and fraud. Unfortunately, fraud doesn't appear to be cyclical, right? So we just have to get the best version of all the data and analytics that we have in fraud in the TruValidate solution. Now what we have is really good and very compelling, but there's a robust pipeline of improvements and that plus Todd and Steve continuing to improve their go-to-market and their commercialization, that's going to increase the rate of growth in fraud.
There's a bit of cyclicality in marketing. I mentioned it when answering the other question just a minute ago. In very difficult economic times, businesses will reduce the marketing spend. They will squeeze their suppliers, right? Now a high proportion, greater than a majority of our revenue in marketing is subscription oriented, right? So it's not as transactionally at risk as perhaps other product lines, but there is a little bit of cyclicality.
Honestly, I'm not worried about cyclicality in marketing right now impacting our revenue growth because I think we've delivered so much value in the integrated product suite, and I think the data is so differentiated that we can grow through those headwinds, those potential headwinds.
The GSEs, yes, I mean, look, we are obviously in contact and collaboration with the GSEs pretty frequently. All the bureaus are. We were gratified to learn that they have run a pilot. They have securitized a loan portfolio and issued it that was based on Vantage 4.0, and that's just what I was mentioning.
Any closing remarks?
Well, first of all, you guys have been great. I know we threw a lot of information at you. Did I mention we have some platforms, right? But look, it was a great day. And after 4 years of working hard, it was exciting to get to spend time with you and hundreds of other investors that are dialed in and tell our story.
And what I would say is in that '21, '22 time frame, we made some bold moves because we believe we needed to do that to fulfill the full potential that we had in this business. And there were some times along the way where there were concerns about leverage. There were concerns about transformation risk. There were concerns. But we kept our heads down. We executed through it. And I think now you can see the business that we have created and you can see how the financial performance can inflect and be really attractive go forward.
So thank you for your time and attention. Let's get some food.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
TransUnion — Analyst/Investor Day - TransUnion
TransUnion — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to the TransUnion 2025 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
Please also note that this event is being recorded today. I would now like to turn the conference over to Greg Bardi, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for attending today. Joining me on the call are Chris Cartwright, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Todd Cello, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
We posted our earnings release and slides to accompany this call on the TransUnion Investor Relations website this morning, and they can also be found in the current report on Form 8-K that we filed this morning. Our earnings release and the accompanying slides include various schedules, which contain more detailed information about revenue, operating expenses and other items as well as certain non-GAAP disclosures and financial measures along with their corresponding reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures. Today's call will be recorded and a replay will be available on our website.
We also will be making statements during this call that are forward-looking. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements because of factors discussed in today's earnings release and the comments made during this conference call and in our most recent Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q and other reports and filings with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.
With that, let me turn it over to Chris.
Thank you, Greg, and good morning, and welcome, everybody, to the call. Kind of excited to share our fourth quarter results with you today. We had a really good quarter, as you can see, and it was a great capstone to another strong year of growth and profitability at TransUnion.
So I'm going to start focusing on the fourth quarter results themselves and also provide an overview of our 2025 accomplishments. And then we'll get into the 2026 guide and our strategic priorities. And then I'll pass it over to Todd, who's going to give you the full financial details on Q4, as well as providing the first quarter guide and the full year 2026 guide.
So 2025, we finished very strongly again, exceeding revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted EPS in the fourth quarter. In total, revenues increased 12% organically and the U.S. market grew 16%, and both of these are some of our strongest underlying performance since 2021. We grew adjusted diluted EPS by 10% in the quarter, actually in the mid-teens, 14% if you exclude the impact from the tax rate reset this year. And with robust business fundamentals and strengthening cash flow, free cash flow, we continue to emphasize shareholder-centric capital deployment, particularly at the current valuation level. So we repurchased roughly $150 million of shares in the quarter for a total of $300 million over 2025. And of course, we retain ample capacity under our recently increased $1 billion repurchase authorization. And we also raised our quarterly dividend by 9% to $0.125 a share.
Now the fourth quarter results demonstrate continued execution against our growth strategy across our solutions, our market verticals and our geographies. Within the U.S., Financial Services grew 19%, 11% excluding mortgage. Mortgage, consumer lending and auto were all double-digit growers. Across all lending types, we outpaced volume growth through new business wins across our solutions suite.
Emerging Verticals accelerated from 7% in the third quarter to 16% growth in the fourth, with insurance, media, tenant and employment screening, tech, retail and e-commerce all growing double digits. And across U.S. markets, our core B2B solutions families grew double digits. Marketing and fraud grew 15% and 14%, respectively. Now this is our best quarter of growth for both of these since the Neustar acquisition.
Our results reflect the power of our streamlined product suites, the accelerated pace of innovation, and our improved go-to-market activities. Our innovative solutions are really resonating with our customers, and they're driving new levels of growth for TransUnion. So internationally, we grew 2% on an organic constant currency basis. Canada and the U.K., our 2 most established markets, they both grew double digits, and they continue to outperform their overall market significantly. Our emerging markets continue to navigate some moderating economic conditions and some credit volume -- moderating credit volume conditions.
India declined 4%, below expectations in what we're viewing as a reset year for unsecured lending and for credit card originations in the Indian market. Now we believe that we are experiencing a bottoming of unsecured lending and card volumes in 2025 and probably early into '26 as well, but we expect a slow and steady improvement in volumes over the course of 2026, supported by using capital restrictions and now with the U.S.-India trade agreement, a lot less uncertainty. We anticipate mid-single-digit growth in India in '26, and a return to double-digit growth thereafter. And again, India is an immense growth opportunity for us, driven by their favorable economic and demographic trends and our unique market position and the coming deployment of all of our global products and IP into this marketplace. Todd is going to provide a more comprehensive review of India in our fourth quarter results shortly.
So 2025 marked a milestone year for TransUnion. We delivered strong financial results. We accelerated the pace of our innovation, and we executed very well on our business transformation. So in 2025, we delivered our second straight year of high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit adjusted diluted EPS growth or mid-teens excluding the impact of the tax rate reset. We also expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by 50 basis points in the year, excluding the impact of FICO mortgage royalties. And this underscores the underlying operating leverage in our business. We significantly outperformed the high end of our initial guidance in February by $183 million on revenue and $56 million on adjusted EBITDA and $0.22 per share adjusted diluted EPS.
Our strong earnings and free cash flow enabled a thoughtful and accretive capital deployment throughout the year. We returned in total $390 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. We completed the acquisition of Monevo, our new credit offers engine, and we announced our agreement to acquire majority ownership of Trans Union de Mexico.
Now moving to our solutions. Our complementary and scalable solutions have really powered diversified revenue growth that is very durable. We now generate roughly half of our U.S. markets revenue outside of core credit. And in international, we generated over 1/4 of our revenue from noncredit solutions, but with expansive opportunity as we deploy fraud marketing and consumer solutions in our countries around the world.
Slide 7 provides the 25-year breakdown by solution family. This is our second year of providing this breakdown, and we simplified the reporting around 4 strategic solutions areas of credit, fraud, marketing and consumer. Our communications products, which include Trusted Call Solutions, are now largely reported within our fraud mitigation solutions. We also allocated our market-specific solutions, including our investigator tools to these main solution families.
On '25, we drove accelerated innovation and growth across solutions. We launched over 30 major enhancements and new products, by far the largest cohort ever, and we have a significant pipeline and long-term revenue growth potential. In addition to driving strong new business, these solutions and enhanced go-to-market supported record retention rates and record new sales in U.S. markets. So to highlight our growth drivers in each solution family. So Credit Solutions grew 13%, driven by U.S. nonmortgage volumes, consistent pricing, sales acceleration in FactorTrust and TruIQ analytics.
Marketing solutions accelerated from flat growth in '24 to 7% organic growth in '25, enabled by our tech replatforming, an integrated and simplified solution suite as we've gone from over 90 products down to 30 and, of course, a strengthened leadership team. So we drove robust bookings in identity, increased sales and usage of our audiences and strong retention in our measurement solutions, setting up marketing solutions for another strong year in '26.
Fraud solutions grew 8%. Trusted Call Solutions or TCS, led the way, growing by $40 million or over 30% year-over-year to $160 million. We expect TCS revenue to exceed $200 million in 2026, and our recently announced tuck-in acquisition of the mobile division of RealNetworks is expected to close in the first half of the year and only adds to this potential growth. The acquisition augments our TCS voice channel capabilities with highly complementary messaging solutions to fight fraud and improve customer engagements. So our fraud and other products are poised for accelerating growth with strong demand from our new AI-powered fraud models for synthetic fraud detection and credit washing.
Finally, consumer solutions grew 6%, excluding the large breach win in 2024. Our indirect channel grew well and direct-to-consumer freemium offerings continues to add users at a healthy pace. We also continue to see strong growth and demand for our consumer solutions across international markets. Our ambitious business transformation enabled us to accelerate our pace of innovation and growth. Through several years of investment in execution, we have built a truly scalable global technology and operating platform.
In '25, we strengthened our global operating model with key talent additions and process improvements. So first, we added several new solutions and operations leaders throughout the year. Most recently, Francesca Noli, who previously led Capital One's CreditWise product has joined us as the Head of Consumer Solutions. We also standardized our global product management best practices to better align our resources, streamline decisions and enable a faster pace of product development and introductions.
We significantly advanced our tech modernization in '25. We migrated over 100 U.S. credit customers to OneTru by year-end, proving the platform's ability to deliver the most complex and sophisticated use cases. We augmented our underlying OneTru capabilities, including integrating additional identity data such as our public records to strengthen our industry-leading coverage and density. We also implemented agentic AI across core processes such as data onboarding, identity resolution, analytics and delivery. And globally, we deployed key TruIQ analytic capabilities into the Indian, Canadian and U.K. markets.
So these achievements reflect the results of our disciplined multiyear investment. The fourth quarter marked the completion of our transformation investment program on schedule, on budget, and we're going to realize the full target savings in 2026.
So in '26, we expect to deliver another year of strong financials. We anticipate growing 8% to 9% organically in constant currency for revenues, 7% to 8% adjusted EBITDA growth, and 8% to 10% adjusted diluted EPS growth. The high end of our guidance implies a third consecutive year of at least high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit adjusted EPS growth. And our guidance assumes continued healthy operating leverage with 70 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion when excluding the FICO mortgage royalty payments.
So our initial guidance maintains our prudently conservative approach. We expect modest U.S. lending growth similar to recent quarters and a gradual recovery in our international markets. Now assuming a continuation of these current trends, we would again expect to deliver toward the high end of our range.
Our strategic focus on '26 is to build on our momentum and to drive innovation-led and scalable growth. The priority is really turbocharging our innovation. We expect that the pace of major product enhancements and introductions will accelerate further in '26. Across our portfolio, we are launching new AI-powered solutions to boost product predictiveness and capture more value within a customer's workflow.
In credit, we're embedding role-based AI agents in TruIQ analytics for faster data exploration and easier accessibility. In fraud, advanced machine learning and AI already power our newest models and will support rapid development of customized models for clients at scale. In marketing, we're enhancing our robust identity data with AI models to create advanced consumer behavioral models. And in our international markets, we continue to deploy our fastest-growing U.S. solutions, including TruIQ analytics and Trusted Call Solutions into target local markets. We believe our broader solution suite will enable continued outperformance in mature markets like Canada and the U.K., and adds to our growth potential across our attractive emerging markets.
Our solutions portfolio is the strongest it's ever been, and it's only gaining momentum. And to ensure commercial momentum, we continue to sharpen our go-to-market approach and have added specialized sellers capable of selling our newest solutions. So we're unlocking the full potential of our global technology and operating platform to fuel these innovations and growth. We're on track to complete U.S. credit migrations onto OneTru by midyear. And further, we plan to migrate credit and analytic capabilities for Canada, the U.K. and the Philippines onto OneTru over the course of '26.
From an operating standpoint, we remain focused on continuous improvement, standardization and automation. Scaling our technology and operating platform, we also anticipate ongoing cost savings that will boost margins and support future growth investments.
And finally, I wanted to finish with a few thoughts on AI, given the recent noise in the information services and software space. So AI raises concerns about commoditization, especially for information services companies that manage more readily accessible and unregulated data. However, I believe that TransUnion's data assets are protected from this risk because they're broadly sourced, they're proprietary, they're highly regulated, and they're continuously enhanced by [indiscernible] from providing services across our networks. And this creates a significant entry barrier.
Now with our market-leading identity resolution, we integrate all of this data to enable advanced analytics and deliver great predictions of credit and fraud risk to clients as well as marketing effectiveness. This helps our clients make smart decisions about their resource allocation. Also, AI can accelerate our growth by increasing the data consumption by our clients to improve their AI-enabled models, but also by substantially automating our internal analytic processes. And I'll remind you that today, our most AI-enabled clients also consume the most data.
So we think we're in an advantageous position. We have a ton of domain-specific data and a position in our customer workflows that's going to allow us to drive substantial value and be enabled by AI rather than [ erode it. ]
So if I can double-click a bit. I'd start with our credit solutions and remind you that these are broadly sourced proprietary data. In the U.S. alone, at any point in time, we have 12,000 to 14,000 active lenders furnishing data. This represents individual contracts and individual ongoing supervision for each one of these data contributors. Additionally, they can only contribute the data to authorized reporting agencies, and we can only use it for very specific and highly regulated purposes.
Before we provide this information to a customer, we have to research them. They go through an elaborate credentialing process. They can only use the data for specific uses. We have to monitor their usage of the information on an ongoing basis.
Credit information is deeply important to consumers, each year the bureaus handle millions of consumer inquiries and thousands of regulatory inquiries. And unfortunately, credit reporting is also one -- receives like the highest volume of litigation from consumers of any industry in the U.S. So obviously, the combination of the broad sourcing networks, the proprietary and highly regulated nature and all of the challenges around selling this information and supporting its usage in the market create quite a barrier to entry.
Our fraud and marketing solutions also leverage fast contributory networks of data and an industry-leading data craft. Most of this information is proprietary and sourced from industry consortiums. For instance, our fraud models use data from our device consortium alongside with anomalies that we did [indiscernible] and in credit files or from our public records business. This device consortium represents hundreds of corporations around the world and has engaged with over 14 billion devices over the last 15 years.
In marketing, our measurement solutions capture information on consumer interactions with ads across hundreds of leading e-commerce entities. And this includes the walled garden, streaming platforms, most of the prominent publishers out there. And these entities provide us with this data because we represent multibillions of dollars of brand spending from their consumers, rather from their customers. And they're looking to us for independent and entrusted measures of advertising effectiveness.
And so our marketing identity solutions, they take in all of this data input, plus they gather additional information from our clients' range of internal systems and they bring it all together to assess, to provide insights into the effectiveness of a client's marketing initiatives and just assess the probability that a prospect is going to convert within the marketing funnel.
So we're also actively leveraging AI internally, and we're seeing some enormous benefits, driving software development productivity, speed of product development, improving our customer experience and the consumer experience and operations, and just allowing us to do a lot more with less. AI is enhancing each phase of our analytic data insight process within OneTru, empowering our newest products.
So net-net, I think AI is going to be a revenue and profit growth enabler for TransUnion. And I'll remind you that our most AI-enabled customers consume more data than our traditional customers and adopt our newer solutions more quickly. So increasingly, TransUnion can capture value with AI agents by performing the work that's done upstream, either by internal client teams or encroaching on automation in workflow solutions that rest upon our data and analytics.
So I'm sure we'll get some questions on this in the Q&A. I look forward to that. But now I'm going to hand it over to Todd for more depth on the financials.
Thanks, Chris, and let me add my welcome to everyone. As Chris mentioned, we exceeded guidance in the fourth quarter, led by U.S. financial services and emerging verticals. Consolidated revenue increased 13% on a reported and 12% on an organic constant currency basis.
The Monevo acquisition added 0.5% to growth. The foreign currency impact was immaterial. Mortgage contributed 3 points to growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased 10%. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 35.6%, in line with our expectations as we made targeted investments in the quarter behind strong revenue growth. Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $1.07, $0.05 ahead of the high end of our guidance and an increase of 10%.
In the fourth quarter, we incurred $25 million of onetime charges related to our transformation program, $6 million for operating model optimization and $19 million for technology transformation. The fourth quarter marked our last quarter of onetime charges related to our transformation program.
Looking at segment financial performance for the fourth quarter, U.S. markets revenue grew 16% on an organic constant currency basis versus the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 37.9%. Financial Services revenue grew 19% or 11% excluding mortgage. The environment remains positive. Lenders have sufficient capital, credit performance is strong and consumers continue to show resilience due to low unemployment and rising wages. We continue to outperform underlying volumes on the strength of our broad-based solution suite.
Credit card and banking rose 3%, with healthy lending volumes and good demand for our alternative data, fraud and marketing solutions. Consumer lending rose 21% as fintechs and personal lenders continue to expand activity. Delinquency trends remain stable even with the pickup in activity and fintech funding remains strong. FactorTrust finished the year well and grew nearly 20% for the year. Auto grew 12%, driven by volume growth, pricing and new wins. Mortgage revenue grew 37% against inquiries up 4% due to third-party scores pricing and non tri-bureau revenue. Mortgage represented 13% of TransUnion's 2025 revenue. Emerging Verticals accelerated to 16% growth, up from 7% in the third quarter with strength across our verticals. Even excluding some onetime project revenue, underlying growth was still over 10%.
Insurance again grew double digits. Tech, retail and e-commerce, media, and tenant and employment also accelerated to double-digit growth. Communications grew mid-single digits and public sector grew modestly. Insurance delivered its first $100 million revenue quarter, a testament to strong execution and our unique position as the clear leading bureau serving the insurance space. Double-digit growth in insurance was supported by consumer shopping and healthy credit-based marketing activity as insurers benefit from improved rate adequacy.
We continue to execute a broad-based growth playbook with strong sales across core credit, driving history, marketing and Trusted Call Solutions.
Turning to Consumer Interactive. Revenue grew 8% on an organic constant currency basis driven by strength in the indirect channel and breach remediation wins. For my comments about International, all revenue growth comparisons will be in organic constant currency terms. For the total segment, revenue grew 2%. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 43.1% as we controlled expenses for moderating revenue growth.
Looking at the specifics for each region. Our U.K. business grew 10%, a second straight quarter of double-digit growth. We benefited from healthy volumes from our largest banking and fintech customers as well as new wins across verticals. Canada grew 13%. Broad-based growth was driven by fintech wins and customer expansion, innovation-led gains in financial services and growth across Consumer Indirect, insurance and auto.
2025 was our third straight year of double-digit growth in Canada, reflecting our proven global growth playbook. Latin America declined 3% due to softer economic and lending conditions. Colombia grew low single digits despite political uncertainty that weighed on activity. Our other Latin America countries declined modestly impacted by uncertainty linked to recent trade and immigration policies. Our smaller Brazilian business also declined. Asia Pacific declined 11%. The Philippines grew low single digits, but Hong Kong faced soft volumes and continued to lap onetime consulting revenue from the prior year. In both Latin America and Asia Pacific, we expect similar growth rates and dynamics in the first quarter of 2026, with improving performance as the year progresses. Finally, Africa increased 3% with good growth across banking, insurance and fintech.
Turning to India. Revenue declined 4% in the quarter and grew 2% for the year. Here are our expectations. As a reminder, in 2024, we experienced strong but decelerating growth throughout the year, and the Reserve Bank of India took proactive actions to support financial stability and slow lending by tightening regulations and targeting lower loan-to-deposit ratios industry-wide.
In 2025, India experienced stable GDP growth and inflation, and the RBI steadily eased some of the lending restrictions. With that said, unsecured personal loans and credit cards, which drive our volume and revenue remained sluggish due to capital constraints and lender conservatism.
Overall, consumer loan growth in the year predominantly came from secured products like gold loans, where credit pull penetration is not significant. Unsecured personal loan and card lenders prioritize existing customers and higher notional loans as opposed to new to credit opportunities, which also impacted credit polls. This dynamic weighed on growth, particularly after U.S. tariff announcements dampened commercial lending to export-oriented sectors. Despite volume challenges throughout 2025, we continue to drive solid sales throughout the year of our innovative credit and direct-to-consumer solutions.
For 2026, we expect mid-single-digit growth with high single-digit declines in the first quarter, followed by improvement over the course of the year. Our guidance assumes a tempered recovery in the unsecured personal loan and credit card markets. Economic conditions are favorable and the recently announced trade deal between the U.S. and India reduces some uncertainty.
That said, lenders remain cautious, and we will monitor conditions closely. We believe our accelerating pace of product innovation also supports improved growth in 2026 with several new consumer and small business credit scores, additional TruIQ analytics tools, and an expanded direct-to-consumer offering.
Longer term, India remains a unique opportunity for TransUnion, and we believe a healthy double-digit growth compounder. We are the market leader in the world's fastest-growing market. In addition to highly favorable demographic trends with 850 million consumers under 35 years old, rapid digitization plays into our strength in fraud and marketing. We plan to expand our offerings in India with our leading global IP, including marketing solutions, True IQ and trusted call solutions. Secular trends combined with significant vertical and solution, whitespace present multiple avenues for growth across our Indian business.
Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $5.1 billion of debt and $854 million of cash. Our leverage ratio at quarter end declined to 2.6x as we continue to push toward our long-term target of under 2.5x. Our strengthening free cash flow and ongoing delevering positioned us to return capital returns to shareholders. We repurchased $150 million in shares in the fourth quarter, bringing the total for 2025 to roughly $300 million. We view valuation as attractive at current levels and plan to continue being active in the repurchase market over the course of 2026. We also raised our quarterly dividend from $0.115 to $0.125 per share, underscoring our commitment to growing our dividend alongside earnings growth.
We expect to complete our acquisition of a majority ownership of Trans Union de Mexico in the first half of 2026. We are excited to expand our global reach and bring our expertise and solution to Mexican consumers and businesses. Based on current exchange rates, we expect the purchase price to be approximately USD 660 million. We plan to fund the acquisition with cash on hand and debt. Ahead of the acquisition in February, we upsized the capacity on our revolving credit facility to $1 billion.
Before turning to guidance, I want to provide final comments on our completed transformation investment program. In late 2023, we announced this program to optimize our operating model and modernize our technology capabilities. In addition to driving structural cost savings, the program was a clear enabler of our current innovation and growth momentum. We met all financial commitments for the program, completing it on time, and within our $355 million to $375 million budget.
Additionally, CapEx was roughly 8% of revenue in 2024 and 7% of revenues in 2025, better than expected as we manage capital investment throughout the period. The program delivered $200 million in free cash flow savings, inclusive of roughly $130 million of operating expense savings and a reduction in capital intensity to approximately 6% of revenue starting in 2026. In 2026, there will be no onetime spend related to this investment program. We expect free cash flow generation as a percentage of adjusted net income to be 90% or greater in 2026 and going forward.
Turning to guidance. We have maintained a prudently conservative approach. We assume modest U.S. lending volume growth and a tempered recovery in our international emerging markets. If conditions and business momentum continue, we expect to deliver results towards the high end of our guidance range.
Additionally, our acquisition of Trans Union de New Mexico, which we anticipate being modestly accretive in its first year upon closing is not included in guidance. Throughout the year, we plan to provide transparency on the impact of FICO mortgage royalty increases, which increased our reported revenue this year but have no profit impact.
That brings us to our outlook for the first quarter. FX impact is expected to be a 1 point benefit to both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. At this point, we assume minimal impact from acquisitions. Revenue is guided to be between $1.195 billion and $1.205 billion, 8% to 9% on an organic constant currency basis or 5% to 6% excluding the impact from FICO mortgage royalties. We anticipate total mortgage revenue growing roughly 35% in the quarter compared to a modest increase in inquiries. We anticipate adjusted EBITDA to be between $414 million and $420 million, up 4% to 6%. This implies an adjusted EBITDA margin of 34.6% to 34.9%, down 140 to 160 basis points. However, excluding the 110 basis point margin drag from FICO mortgage royalties, we expect our margins to be down modestly in the first quarter. We expect our adjusted diluted earnings per share to be between $1.08 and $1.10, up 2% to 5%.
Turning to the full year. We anticipate FX and acquisitions to be immaterial to revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Revenue is guided to be between $4.946 billion and $4.981 billion, 8% to 9% on an organic constant currency basis or 5% to 6% excluding the impact from FICO mortgage royalties. Specific to our segment organic constant currency assumptions, we anticipate U.S. markets to be up high single digit or mid-single digit excluding mortgage.
Within U.S. markets, we expect another strong year from our B2B solutions and verticals and a transition year from Consumer Interactive as we lap breach wins and ramp the monetization of our freemium channel. We are guiding Financial Services to be up mid-teens or high single digit excluding mortgage, Emerging Verticals to be up mid-single digit and Consumer Interactive to decline low single digit. We anticipate international growing mid-single digit.
Turning back to the total company outlook. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $1.756 billion and $1.777 billion, up 7% to 8%. That would result in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.5% to 35.7%, down 30 to 50 basis points. However, excluding the impact of FICO mortgage royalties, we expect to expand adjusted EBITDA margins by 70 basis points at the high end of guidance, driven by flow-through on revenue growth as well as the remaining savings from our transformation program. We anticipate adjusted diluted earnings per share to be $4.63 to $4.71, up 8% to 10%. Our adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance assumes no benefit from our acquisition in Mexico nor other capital allocation actions.
For other guidance items, we expect depreciation and amortization to be approximately $600 million or $310 million excluding step-up amortization from our 2012 change in control and subsequent acquisitions. Additionally, we expect net interest expense to be about $220 million. The adjusted tax rate to be approximately 26%, and capital expenditures to be about 6% of revenue.
Before handing it back to Chris, I want to provide our perspective on the mortgage market and how our assumptions inform 2026 guidance. Given the growing -- given the number of moving pieces, I want to provide our high-level view on industry structure and dynamics.
First, credit data is a foundation to safe underwriting mortgage in all lending categories. Any score or analytic depends on credit bureau's data stewardship. We differentiate our data from peers as the only bureau with 30 months of trended data plus alternative data sets like rental and utility trade lines.
Second, our pricing actions preserve the profitability of our mortgage vertical while prioritizing lower costs for consumers and promoting lender choice. In 2026, we are offering VantageScore at $4, a 60% discount to a FICO score. We are also keeping the price of our credit data plus VantageScore flat in 2026 at $15. Our pricing approach [ influence ] TransUnion's profitability from potential changes in third-party score delivery models. Finally, VantageScore adoption represents incremental profit and margin opportunity for TransUnion. We have had very constructive discussions about VantageScore 4.0 and expect customers to test and validate throughout 2026.
That brings me to our underlying U.S. mortgage guidance for 2026. We anticipate generating $425 million of mortgage revenue excluding FICO royalties, up roughly 6%. This expectation is driven by core data pricing as well as new wins in TruIQ and Trusted Call Solutions. Inclusive of FICO royalties, we expect $750 million of reported mortgage revenue, up 28%.
A few underlying assumptions to this guidance. We expect mid-single-digit inquiry declines based on the extrapolation of current origination trends. Given the presently low level of mortgage activity, any additional reduction in interest rates represents upside to our guidance. We assume no shift to the FICO direct licensing program in the year, informed by current observations and customer feedback. No customer has shifted to this program to date. Again, absolute profitability is similar regardless of whether TransUnion or the reseller calculates the score.
Finally, any VantageScore adoption represents profit and margin upside to our guidance. Timing and pace of adoption will be dependent on key milestones, such as the FHFA publishing its loan level price adjustment matrix for the GSEs. Given that FICO mortgage royalties impact revenue but not profit, we believe the best way to judge underlying performance is to exclude these revenues from our metrics. In 2024 and 2025, we grew high single digits even when excluding FICO mortgage royalties and expect to deliver 6% growth based on the high end of 2026 guidance. Excluding no-margin FICO royalties also uncovers the underlying operating leverage of the business over the last several years.
Based on the high end of guidance, we expect to deliver 38.2% margins with 70 basis points of expansion in 2026 or 240 basis points of expansion since 2023. This underlying operating leverage across the 3 years is again driven by strong revenue growth and the benefits of our transformation cost savings.
Finally, the secular trends in mortgage remain the same, and any recovery in mortgage activity represents upside to our financial results. There are now almost 10 million mortgages with rates above 6%, creating a significant refilable population if average rates fall below 6%. Every 10% increase in volumes would add over $40 million of adjusted EBITDA and $0.16 to earnings. A full recovery to 2019 levels equates to close to $1 in earnings or over 20% upside to our earnings base. This upside is in addition to the significant opportunity from VantageScore adoption.
I'll now turn the call back to Chris for closing remarks.
Well, thank you, Todd. So to summarize, we finished 2025 with a great fourth quarter, growing our revenues by 12% organically and surpassing guidance. Assuming business conditions remain stable, we expect another strong year in '26. We're guiding for 8% to 9% organic constant currency revenue growth and 8% to 10% adjusted diluted EPS growth. Our '25 results and our '26 guide reflect the benefits of our multiyear strategic transformation. We remain focused on leveraging this transformation to drive innovation-led and durable growth.
So we plan to share more details around our strategic momentum and our future growth prospects at our Investor Day coming up on March 10 in New York City. We've got a robust schedule planned with opportunities to hear from our senior leaders and to see demos of our newest products. And we plan to spotlight our AI-enabled OneTru platform, our reinvigorated innovation engine and how our robust product portfolio is driving growth across our verticals and geographies. We'll also provide an updated financial growth framework.
Our strategy emphasizes driving industry-leading organic growth, enhancing our earnings and our cash flows and strengthening return of capital and shareholder-friendly capital deployment. So I hope you can all join us. Please reach out to Greg and the IR team for more details.
And with that, back to you, Greg.
That concludes our prepared remarks. For the Q&A, we ask that you each ask only one question so that we can include more participants. Operator, we can begin the Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] At this time we will take our first question, which will come from Jeff Meuler with Baird.
2. Question Answer
My question is on the U.S. emerging vertical guidance. It's good, but you just put up really strong growth, even excluding, I think, one timers, you said it was double digit. It's broad-based. And I would think that there would be building benefits from the product replatforming and capabilities, consolidation along with the tech transformation. So just any specific call-outs on the U.S. emerging verticals outlook beyond just the general prudent conservatism?
Yes, Jeff, and thank you. Yes, it was a great quarter, wrapping up another really strong year of top line organic growth. And emerging was certainly a big part of the story. We're happy to get into the guidance and the approach. Probably a good way to start the call, given some of the chatter early on here. But as you know, we're starting the year, and typically, we guide a bit on the prudently conservative side to set us up for beats and raises over the course of the year. That's been the approach over the past 2 years, and we've been outperforming consistently over the last 8 quarters. I think it's very much the same posture in '26. So I do understand your question on emerging.
Let's just have Todd take us through a quick comparison of the '25 guide versus the actual achievement and then how we're setting up in '26.
Okay. Thank you, Chris, and Jeff, thank you for the question. It's a good place for us to start this morning. I think it's important just to ground us and everybody in what we feel is a very strong guide starting off 2026. And I would start with, at this point in the year, this is a guide that we have a high degree of confidence in being able to achieve. And if you were to look back to last year at this time, we were guiding our organic constant currency revenue growth at 4.5% to 6%, and we ended up growing 9%. And if you look at the guide that we put out for 2026, we're contemplating 8% to 9% growth.
So a continuation of 2025, again, a high degree of confidence. And as we typically do, we would orient you more towards the high end of that guidance just based on the assumption that conditions that we're seeing, if they stay the same, we should be about at that level. And if you look at our results, ex FICO compared to the guidance and specifically FICO mortgage, last year, we were guiding 2.5% to 4%, and we ended up at 8% growth. And this year, we're guiding 5% to 6% growth. So you saw a significant outperformance in products and services that TransUnion is delivering into the market and adding a significant amount of value.
Specific to your question on Emerging Verticals, last year, we were guiding mid-single digits, and we ended up posting an 8% growth for 2025. And right now, we're starting at mid-single digits. And again, it's just back to that, what we have high confidence in and conviction in being able to achieve at this point in the year. So we feel that it's a healthy guide at this point. But again, we oriented towards more of the high and we see upside as the year goes on.
And just from a profitability perspective, I know you're asking about revenue, but I want to round this out. Last year, we were guiding adjusted EBITDA growth at 3% to 6%. We ended up growing 10%. And right now, we're guiding 7% to 8%. And similarly, adjusted diluted EPS last year, 1% to 4%. That 4% was burdened by a change in our tax rate due to some Pillar 2 impact as well as FX at the time. We ended up delivering double digits for 2025, which was an outstanding result for TransUnion, and it's the second year in a row of double-digit EPS growth. And what you could see for 2026 is we're guiding 8% to 10%. So we're already at the high end where we're orienting investors towards that high at 10% double digit. So if we achieve that, that would be 3 straight years, which we feel is indicative of the earnings power that we have created at TransUnion.
Yes. And so good detail. I mean we've leaned in more for the total guide this year as you can see. And we would expect to hit the high end and hopefully outperform that as well.
On the emerging side, it's great that we have got that part of the business growing high single digits. I would expect that we can continue to do that despite a lower initial guide over the course of the year. It's really important to point out the strength that marketing solutions and fraud are showing both for full year '25, where both were, again, at the high single-digit level. And then we exited low double digits in the fourth quarter. Now we're not going to extrapolate from the fourth quarter in our '26 guide. That's a bit too aggressive. But again, you should think of the Emerging Verticals as a high single-digit compounder now, and that's half of the revenues in the U.S., which is 80% of our total business. And you can also expect that, that is being driven by marketing and fraud now, which are now positioned post Neustar asset integration on the OneTru platform to compound mid-single digits to low double digits, which is what we told investors we would achieve when we acquired Neustar back in early 2022.
And the next question will come from Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.
Chris, you talked a lot about AI, which was very helpful. And I was hoping you could talk even more about within marketing and fraud, you talked about this already, but just maybe nail down your differentiation versus competitors and maybe more about the data assets in those areas, specifically where the data is coming from and why competitors can't get the data. All of that would be super helpful.
Okay. Thanks, Toni. Well, with the first component of value in our digital marketing suite is our identity data asset and our identity resolution capabilities. And all of our data has been consolidated on the OneTru platform on a common identity spine or graph. We have several different views of that. One is the individual, of course, one is the devices and one is the geo location. And now that we've achieved that, and that was a delivery over the course of '25, we consistently hear from customers that we have the best identity information in the market, period. And every effective marketing campaign starts with clean data in a clean sense of where you can access these customers digitally.
So one, I would emphasize that unless you are operating a credit bureau, fraud contributory networks, a marketing measurement platform, and you own all the public records in the U.S. plus, you're going to struggle to have the identity data that we have, plus again, we're hovering in from thousands of sources, individually contracted, a whole degree of other information that augments the identity graph. In fact at Investor Day, we're going to drill into this even more deeply. That's the first point, I would say. And that's proprietary and that's differentiated.
On the audience side, it's a variety of behavioral, demographic, [ psychographic ] and some real-time consumer intent data that's flowing in. That data, less differentiated, but also not a large percentage of our growth or profit, but very complementary to identity. And what we find is if you win identity, they then leverage from that to audience purchasing. And then from that, it moves into activation where we have invested a lot to extend the number of connections we have with publishers and platforms throughout the digital ecosystem so we can more directly activate.
And then when you get to measurement, in order to measure the effectiveness of advertisements and influencing prospects within the marketing funnel, you have to negotiate and program integrations into hundreds and hundreds of different points within the digital ecosystem. Some will be massive walled gardens that we all know about. Others will be streamers and prominent publishing sites, et cetera, et cetera. All of those contributions, which can come at an individual consumer level or a cohort level to protect privacy have to get integrated and interpreted and normalized and then aggregated for subsequent analysis.
So there's a lot of proprietary information. There's a lot of proprietary integrations, a lot of data science and a lot of analytics to get coherent answers as to whether advertising is working and who you should prioritize for the next round of ads.
Similar dynamics in fraud. I mean we have hundreds and hundreds of customers around the world who run our fraud mitigation software on their computers. We see every device that connects to it. We can relate many of those devices back to individuals. We understand if there's any questionable behavior that these devices engage in. That helps us form a reputation. We're analyzing the geo locations from which they connect and the IP addresses to see if there are anomalies there. And then we're aggregating the behavior of these devices and comparing it to patterns of good and bad device behavior from a fraud perspective. All of this are proprietary integrations, individual sales, ongoing relationship maintenance that leads again to proprietary network effect enabled data flowing into these assets.
So again, there's a lot of proprietary information in the fraud and marketing world, it's difficult to access, too. You just don't get it by crawling the web or licensing a book library from a publisher.
And the next question will come from Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.
I'm looking at Slide 23, the $750 million of U.S. mortgage revenues for '26 being up 28%, which, of course, includes the FICO reps. Does that 28% figure make any assumption about market shift from FICO to Vantage? And also, are there any assumptions in your '26 guide in terms of VantageScore adoption benefiting TransUnion today, meaning in '26?
Andrew, I'll take that question. So right now, in our guidance, what we are assuming is status quo. We are assuming that there is no shift to the FICO direct program based on customer feedback that we've had at this point in time. And we also are assuming that there is no VantageScore adoption as well.
So needless to say, in both of those situations, if that were to happen, if we were to see a migration to the FICO direct program that would enable our profit margin to increase, similar with VantageScore as well, too. So there's just nothing but upside. So we've taken a conservative posture with both of these assumptions to start the year. Just that there's just so many unknowns at this point in time. But the net of it is, if we do get either to move, you'll see higher profit margin.
Yes. We just thought it was a cleaner and clearer way to present our numbers for '26 because different of our competitors could have different assumptions around share movement and conversion and the like. So this is clear, and it's clean.
But just to reinforce what Todd said, if the direct license program does get traction over the course of the year, that may erode some of our revenue, but it won't erode any of our profits. In fact, our profitability will increase because we don't have a margin on FICO royalties within mortgage. And then once these LLPA matrices are published by the FHFA, we would expect that we're going to start selling Vantage scores that will be additive to revenue and highly accretive to profitability. And look, the whole industry is waiting impatiently for those things to come out because there's a heck of a lot of interest amongst lenders. And we're working with lenders currently, providing them with free scores and supporting analytics so they can do their backfile estimates and performance conversions and get ready for share movement.
The next question will come from Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank.
I wanted to ask about consumer lending. It was interesting to see that growth rate accelerate, and I know you talked about a prudent die, but I'm curious if you can talk about the trends that you're seeing there? Is it just better market performance? You touched on some of the fintech activity. But just curious to hear a little bit more about that and what you're embedding for the guide and your confidence there.
Sure. So happy to talk about consumer, probably should zoom out a bit and just talk about the health of the marketplace. Again, I would reinforce what you heard the banks say that the macro conditions are still solid and stable. We've got good GDP growth. We have low levels of unemployment. Obviously, job creation is not as robust as we would like, but perhaps a little bit better than was assumed. Real wage gains, we're still eating out gains there, which is good for the consumer. And the consumer leverage ratios are still acceptable. They're still within range. Although if you're on the lower end of the economic spectrum, you're under stress. That's unfortunately been the story, at least over the past decade that I've been here.
The banks are all reporting good earnings. They're optimistic about loan growth. Their delinquencies are low or within a manageable range certainly, which is a positive. And a lot of the banks and a lot of economists are forecasting a stronger second half to the year, which is great, right? Because over the course of '24 and '25, you've seen how fast we can grow revenue in this business and the flow-through to profits and what are just kind of stable but still somewhat muted economic conditions.
We are forecasting those conditions over the course of '26. We think that's sensible and conservative to start the year at. But if we do have any improvement, we're going to have material, we're going to have nice upside to the guidance that we're giving. And again, I would point out, our organic revenue growth rate is strong. It's been at the top of the industry in '24 and '25. We're guiding at the top of the industry in '26. We would point you to the high end of our guidance, and we're going to work really hard to outperform that.
Yes. And Chris, I would just add, when we talk about consumer lending, I think it's important to call out that we've had some really good success, both with FactorTrust in that space, and that grew 20% for us. And that is a really good indicator of what we've done with the OneTru platform, and that was the first product that we went and replatformed. That's embedded in the numbers. So it's a good proof point on where we're headed with OneTru. And hand in hand with that, also TruIQ was a winner in the consumer lending space for us as well, too. So I think our data analytics and the capabilities that we'll bring to our customers, a lot of good momentum in the consumer lending space in those 2 areas.
Yes. And I guess just to finish up on consumer lending. We expect continued strength in that area. All the players have been able to resupply their balance sheets. We think there's still a good environment for loan consolidation and conversion of revolving card balances and the like.
I think over the past, say, 4 or 5 years, because of the experience in '22 and '23, where consumer lending was hard hit, there's been an assumption that it's a more volatile space than it actually is. Consumer lending has always been an important part of the U.S. lending landscape. It's far more robust and [ growthful ] and I think you've seen that over the past couple of years, and we expect more strength this year.
The next question will come from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.
I was hoping to ask on the margin trajectory this year. I know that there's some difficulty. You provided a lot of information on what margins look like ex FICO. But it does look like it's modestly down year-over-year in the first quarter before improving as the year progresses. Can you just kind of flesh that out a little bit further, what impacts or informs expansion as the year progresses or accelerating expansion as the year progresses ex FICO?
Andrew, and thanks for the question. So let's dig into this. So in the first quarter, our high guidance, we are calling for a margin of 34.9%, which would be down 140 basis points. We think it's probably best to look at our margin, though, excluding the FICO mortgage royalty. At that level, we're at 37.5%, which would be down 30 basis points.
When you compare that to the full year guide. Full year, we're guiding 35.7%, which at the top, all in with the FICO mortgage royalties. So we'd be down 30 basis points. Really, where your question is at is an ex FICO, we're going to grow our margins 70 basis points to 38.2%.
So several factors here. The first one, the first quarter of any year for TransUnion is our seasonally lowest revenue amount in dollar terms. So needless to say that if you don't have higher revenue, you don't have that flow through in dollars down to profit. So that's the first thing of why Q1 is the way it is.
Second, if you look at the growth rates that we've provided in the guide relative Q1 and then relative to what we would -- you'd imply for Q2 through Q4, and then we're at the high, that growth rate ex the FICO mortgage is relatively stable each quarter throughout the year. So meaning we're not necessarily assuming that there's a significant increase in the revenue growth rate. So there's a stability in that growth rate.
So then where this then leads to then is in the margin expansion that we're expecting, a lot of that's going to happen in the second half of 2026. And as a reminder, in 2025 in the second half, we were opportunistic with our performance and making onetime investments back into the business to continue to solidify the really strong advances that we made with our technology and our product teams of augmenting sellers to continue the really good momentum that we have on the top line.
So we're going to lap some of those onetimes. We won't have them in '26, so that will provide a benefit. And from a compensation perspective, in the second half of 2025, we did have higher incentive compensation accruals. We're at this point in time right now we've reset those accruals back at target, right? So that provides a natural upside for us with the margin in the second half.
Yes. And so look, in the [ big, ] over the past couple of years, some investors have asked whether our business still has the same degree of operating leverage that we enjoyed previously. And it's because we've been growing high single digit, and you haven't seen the top line margin flow through.
As we explained, it was being masked by the FICO price increases that have been quite considerable over the period. Now that we're breaking this out, you can see that margins have expanded by 240 bps over the past several years, which is terrific. And so you can see the operating leverage is still here. And again, we are now also supporting marketing and fraud and analytics product line that has lower margins at this point than does core credit, and we're also investing heavily in the business.
So I hope from this, investors are reassured that we still have tremendous operating leverage, and you're going to see that in our profits and our EPS as we continue to compound the top line high single digits.
The next question will come from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.
Just one question from this AI debate that's out there, and that's more tied to your selling model. Like how seat count tied or enterprise tied is your business? Just touching on the angle that everyone's worried or believes that because of AI, every industry will have materially less headcount, more efficient, et cetera. So just trying to appreciate how you think that could impact your business.
Yes. Well, Manav, as you know, we are a highly recurring transactional business at the core with a material chunk of subscription that's not tied to seat count necessarily more to utilization or ranges that factor under the annual subscription that we would charge a client. So I don't think there's going to be a model disruption because of anything on the AI side.
I do think, to the latter part of your point, we're going to apply AI and are applying AI to drive productivity internally. You're going to see a dramatic productivity increase in our software developers. That's not really going to translate into fewer developers because we have so many innovation opportunities that a 30% or 50% increase, I'm going to put the work on product and revenue growth. But in our analytics organization, there's going to be a massive productivity improvement.
We're launching a new product, a new analytics platform that's all AI-enabled. We call it the [ Analytics Orchestrator. ] You'll see that at the upcoming Investor Day, and that's going to enable orders of magnitude improvement in the speed with which we can create models and insights across the credit risk marketing and fraud value chains within our clients.
The point of this is that more and more of our analysts will be forward deployed in the clients. There will be more of a consulting and consultative selling and an enablement aspect to how we engage in the market because now we have 3 strong product lines with highly interrelated workflows that we've pulled together on this common platform, and we want to show clients how they can become a lot more productive by consolidating their work on this platform. And the best people to show them that are in the analytics organization. So I mean I think that's how the go-to-market model is going to evolve in the coming years.
And our next question will come from Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.
I just wanted to drill down on the international side. You provided a lot of good color on India, but I was just wondering if you can also talk about Canada and U.K. or other countries as well.
Yes, for sure. Well, look, obviously, the international division in total didn't grow as fast as we have become accustomed to. The business is in the mature markets. Canada and the U.K. are doing exceptionally well. They're growing well above the market, and we're confident that we're taking share in both markets. And look, it's because we have strong management teams. We've incorporated a lot of our new products into those markets in both Canada and the U.K., the TruIQ analytics platform has been localized for their use. And I just feel like we get great value propositions and an opportunity to grow above market for quite a bit of time.
We've had macroeconomic -- kind of macro-driven softness in India, and in Latin America to a degree as well. Focusing on India. I mean, look, India has been [ buffeted ] by some macro forces over the past couple of years. We've talked about the RBI intervention in the unsecured lending market to calm that down. We've also seen lenders reviewing the profitability of their card portfolios and also pulling back a little bit there. The tariffs of 50% that were imposed in the fourth quarter really jolted the market. A big part of the Indian economy are small- to medium-sized businesses that are export oriented. The U.S. market was important. Those tariffs kind of froze exports. And the banks looked at that and said, "Hey, this sector of the market is less lendable, we have to be cautious here, too, right?"
Now we think the fourth quarter in India and the first quarter of '26 are going to represent a bottoming out from a volume perspective, kind of a financial lending retrenchment, if you will. And then we're going to start resuming our growth. We're forecasting mid-single digits for the year. Clearly, over time, India has far better growth potential than that. Demographics are great. The economy is still growing almost 7%, inflation is manageable. There's a lot of goodness. And I do think that the broad outline of the deal that the U.S. and India have announced is going to be helpful to bringing some stability back to that market.
So we're bullish on India longer term. We are bringing our fraud marketing and analytics products into India. This year, those are going to be entirely new vectors of growth. And so we're looking forward to just getting in there and continuing to drive growth in a very fundamental way, and we're confident that over time, the macro is going to heal itself and be supportive of growth.
And our next question will come from Jason Haas with Wells Fargo.
When we think about the annual guidance, excluding FICO, the 5% to 6% organic growth and the 50 to 70 bps of EBITDA margin expansion, is that a fair framework for thinking about how the business should grow longer term? Are there still costs or anything weighing on the business in 2026?
Yes. So look, as Todd was detailing earlier, net of FICO in '26, it's 5% to 6% organic guide. And look, as we have reminded the market, we start off with a prudently conservative guide at the beginning of the year, and we steer you guys more towards the high end, which would be 6%. And for the past 2 years, we've been able to beat and raise.
And so I would just say, think about those factors in your own deliberations. But as I've said in prior calls, I think this is a business that can now organically compound in the high single digits, perhaps more annualized. And in fact, we did in '24 and '25 ex FICO, right? So organic revenue growth was 8% in '25 ex FICO, similar in '24. So we're proving that we can grow at that level.
We have exited our period of incremental investment and add-backs. We're not adding anything back. We don't need to. That is going to -- it has helped our cash flow tremendously. We're very confident in a low 90% cash flow conversion in '26. I want to reiterate that for all of you on the call this morning.
And then look, in terms of just operational efficiencies and flow through EPS. As we continue to grow at this level, particularly ex FICO, you're going to see really good flow-through to profits and you should expect double-digit growth, perhaps even mid-teens compounding in EPS. That's not the official guide, but that speaks more toward what we've delivered in '24 and '25 into the potential of this business.
And remember, our tech transformation is different, right? We have built a global platform to run credit marketing and fraud businesses with this integrated analytic layer on one single platform. We're converting the U.S. to it. We're also going to convert Canada, the U.K. and the Philippines over the course of the year. That gives us a way to continually take cost out of the business, right? And so that's another initiative that's going to improve the profitability of the business.
Now with those profits, we can invest more in product innovation, in larger and more consultative selling and also in improving margins for the business overall. So I think that's an often overlooked or certainly underappreciated dynamic that we've created in our business. But you can look for us to leverage that in the coming years.
And our last question will come from Kelsey Zhu with Autonomous.
Could you talk a little bit more about your assumptions behind the mid-single-digit declines and mortgage increase guidance for 2026? And how the trigger leads or legislation affect total volume growth there? As well as if you're seeing any competitive pressure from Equifax credit file that also includes the work number indicator?
Sure. Right. So a good topic to talk about. First, I would say that triggers will not have any negative impact at TransUnion. We've been out of the mortgage triggers business for quite a while now. Other players in the space, we'll have to address that.
With regard to any share movement because of bundling credit and some incoming information off the work number. Look, you can look at our mortgage results. We're still doing very well overall, relatively speaking. We've seen no share movement because of -- we had no share movement in the prequalification space. We are aware of 1 large customer that moved between our 2 competitors. We look at that as really a case of price discounting. That trade happened at a 25% discount to the prevailing prices. So I'm not sure I would attribute it to any market innovation.
Now in terms, Todd, of the setup for mortgage and the assumptions for the year, maybe some color on that?
Yes, sure. So the volume assumptions in the first quarter, we're expecting to be up modestly. But for the full year, it's going to be down mid-single digits. So obviously, what that says is that Q1 is our easiest comparable because we saw volumes modestly improve throughout 2025. And then again, looking at mortgage outside of the FICO mortgage score, our mortgage business is still expected to grow 6% on a year-over-year basis, and that has to do with some of our own pricing but also driving innovation through.
Yes. And so perhaps, when we wrap, I'll just emphasize to everybody, Fourth quarter was a great exit to a great year. 12% cumulative growth is awesome, 6% and [ 16% ] in the U.S., we're super encouraged by. Macro factors buffeted us a bit in our emerging markets, which pulled down international. But as we've shown, that's a consistent high single-digit, low double-digit grower over time. I would expect that we can resume that pace in the coming year or so. But there's still a lot of incremental revenue and profit fall through to come because of the transformation that we've achieved.
In every country that we convert to the OneTru platform, that country will be able to bring to market the best of our credit, best credit analytics, in addition to marketing and fraud and our new analytics platform. We now have 4 market-leading horses pulling our wagon, so to speak. I think that's going to be additive to our growth rate and profit fall through.
So we're excited. We're excited with where this business is at and what we can deliver for investors and we're ready to get at it.
All right, Chris. I think that's a good place to end. Thanks for all your questions today, and have a great rest of your day. Thanks.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
TransUnion — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
TransUnion — J.P. Morgan 2025 Ultimate Services Investor Conference
1. Question Answer
Andrew Steinerman, your business information services analyst. Alex Hess, my Vice President of my team. Also on your way out, grab an information services data book. We just published it yesterday, which means we worked on it all weekend.
This is the TransUnion session. I'm with Chris Cartrich, CEO, IR, Greg Bardy. This is the [ Info Services ] track. The business services track is there. The payment services track is here. Welcome to the Ultimate Services Investor Conference. Chris, welcome back. Thanks for joining us.
Thank you, Andrew. Always a pleasure.
So most recently, I've been hearing you talk about high single-digit organic revenue growth. My question to you is pairing that up with double-digit EPS growth and the term you used, that's indicative of TransUnion's earnings power. My question is, what gives you confidence? It seems like you're kind of rolling out that message more recently. So it's truly on your mind. And what needs to happen to achieve those medium-term targets?
Yes, good question. So we're going to be hosting an Investor Day next year in March, I believe it's March 10. And obviously, then we will officially roll out our growth guidance. And -- but I thought it was important to start sharing with the market our views as to how fast we can grow and the type of EPS that we can deliver in normalized market conditions. I guess the first kind of proof point is just the inherent growthfulness of our portfolio as we've demonstrated since our IPO in the middle of 2015.
We have consistently grown in the high single-digit range with the exception of the turmoil of COVID and also the lending recession that happened in the '22, '23 time period, largely because of a huge spike in inflation and a corresponding spike in rates and loan prices. As the markets return to first, a subdued, but at least a stable market, which is how I would describe the '23, '24 period. And then now in '25, we have stability, but we actually have some volume improvements, you're starting again to see how growthful our market positions are, particularly in U.S. financial services, positions that we've built through a combination of having the leading trended data and analytic attributes in the industry and the leading kind of down market small dollar unsecured credit information, right?
And that, plus the combination of our go-to-market and our vertical specialization allows us to really benefit from market growth in this kind of high single-digit level. Now in addition to that, we have been investing heavily in the business for the past 3 to 4 years. A number of product rejuvenation or platform innovation initiatives and even internally, things to position us for structural cost savings over time. I would point to the development and the launch of our OneTru platform, which is a next-generation global configurable platform upon which we run our credit marketing, fraud and investigative solution businesses as well as having an analytics sandbox that cuts across the top of them, all based on a unified pool of identity data that is common across all of those various interrelated applications.
That was a heavy lift technologically. We have completed the majority of the investments and launched the platform and are now running parts of our credit marketing and fraud portfolio in the U.S. on that platform. '26 is a big year of migration. But already, we're seeing the benefits of that innovation in terms of higher growth rates in revenue than we have seen previously. And so all of that product development on top of the next-generation platform is additive to the inherent growthfulness of the market positions that we've built over time.
As we move our revenue to the new platform, we're going to be able to save by demising all of the infrastructure and people costs associated with the old. So we're going to be transitioning over the course of '26. Currently, the P&L reflects that we're maintaining 2 environments, right? At the end of '26, we will be demising in the old environment, which will give us a structural improvement to our costs. Now as we roll into '27, we'll take a portion of that and flow it to margin, but we'll also retain a portion so we can continue to expand our go-to-market resources, right, sellers and fuel continued innovation and product development to keep the top line revenue growing, which has really good profit fall-through.
But we also need to preserve some of that so we can go to the next country and the next country and maintain duplicative costs while we move from the old to the new. And when we do that, the next country, say, the U.K. or Canada or the Philippines, as is the case, we'll get the benefit of our best-in-class products, right, that are represented on the new platform on a more modern technology and then we'll demise all of the related old costs of the infrastructure, a lot of the development resources, even some of the product management resources as the org shifts to a common configurable global platform that creates both growth and scale in the business.
We've been also doing similar investments on our internal technology, right? We call that true ops. So we're going to a standard set of processes and technologies and even people through our offshore capability centers for actually running the business and supporting our customers and managing all of our consumer disputes. Again, as we move from the legacy old, which is fragmented to the consolidated new, there's going to be ongoing cost efficiencies that will fuel revenue growth and profit expansion. And then finally, having a lot of this investment behind us, we're generating more cash, more free cash flow. We will have 90% plus free cash flow conversion next year.
And we've been buying back shares at an accelerated rate because we don't like our current valuation, and we want to take advantage of that. So you can expect us to be more aggressive on the capital allocation front in terms of share buyback, debt retirement and if rates do drop, refinancing the entire debt stack, all of which is going to further drive EPS.
Okay. So in that answer, I heard your view on U.S. consumer credit activity as with some volume improvement. I hear any caveats. So if you wanted to make any caveats to that language about the consumer credit backdrop, it would be good to do it inside this question. I'm looking at U.S. Financial Services, and the company has seen double-digit non-mortgage revenue growth over the last couple of years. So obviously, that's more than just volume recovery in the market. So if you could pull apart for us, again, non-mortgage revenue growth within U.S. Financial Services, how much of that is volume improvement in the marketplace versus just TransUnion winning more cross-selling, et cetera?
Yes. So I guess, first, some comments on the health of the market and what we're seeing in real time. In the Q3 earnings, and we've done this for, I think, the past couple of quarterly earnings presentations, we have said that if the market conditions that we were experiencing at the time persisted, we expect it to be at the high end or above of our guidance. And we said it again in Q3. And again, we're seeing that the market conditions are persist. October is in the books. It was good. We're in November now, and I look at the volume reports daily. I'm not seeing any declines in any lending categories thus far. And I hope that continues over into '26.
And you say you don't see declines is volumes continuing to improve?
I guess what I'm saying is I'm seeing a continuation of the strong volume trends across all consumer lending categories that we experienced in the third quarter. And so we would -- we're very comfortable and confident with how we have guided at this point. And look, I've had a couple of meetings this morning. There's been a series of questions about are you seeing deterioration in Subprime and are you seeing deterioration in lower income consumers. And we're not, which is why I'm sharing the loan volume perspective that we are currently experiencing. And look, as we all know, there have been a lot of really negative forecasts about the implications of trade or economic policies that have not come to pass yet.
The consumer has proven to be pretty resilient. The consumer is still employed with some real wage gains and a reasonable level of debt of leverage and supporting the debt volumes that they've got with low and manageable delinquencies. So, so far, so good.
Right. I just want to say, like I heard you said no deterioration in Subprime, but is it also the case that super prime is doing better than Subprime in terms of volume improvement? Or are they both constructive?
They're both constructive. They're both constructive. And look, one of the reasons why we're seeing such good growth in consumer lending, and I think pivoting to the other part of your question is, certainly, there's some overall market growth in the U.S., which is great, and I think things can remain healthy. We are also enjoying some share gains because we're competing really effectively. For example, we replatformed our payday lending credit solution, which is called FactorTrust before onto OneTru.
In the process, we reengineered the data. We built on a lot more of the analytic attributes that are necessary to create more predictive models. So the data and the models are producing better predictions than ever. That's allowing us to take share and to win at a higher rate. Our growth rate from that area alone is going to be 20% plus this year and the pipeline that we've built is considerable. So innovation through this OneTru platform and the rejuvenation of the various products that rest on the platform is increasing our growth period.
And then on top of it, we have added a lot of relevant growthful products to core credit, marketing services, call authentication services, fraud mitigation and a new analytic platform, TruIQ. All of that is driving our dollar growth beyond what you would get if it was simply explained by volume growth or volume growth in any one lending category.
Okay. So let's talk about the mortgage market. I know it's been very hard for anyone to predict the mortgage market in terms of volumes, but I'm going to ask you to do this kind of looking at 2026. I want you to talk about what you sense will be driving your business in 2026. I'm going to mention 3 things: lower mortgage rates, the commercialization of Vantage 4.0 with GSEs? And then also any moves around or really towards [ prequal ] and pre-approvals?
Yes. So in terms of the rate and the volume environment, I'm not going to prognosticate at this point. We're planning for a steady volume environment. If rates do dip, I mean, currently, the 10-year is floating between 4 and 4.1%, something like that. If it drops into the high 3s, if we get [ 3.7, 3.6, ] it will lead to more refinance activity. We saw that in mid- to late '24 when the 10-year [indiscernible] like 3.6, 3.7 levels. We saw an uptick. It only lasted for a few weeks and then the market began to worry about inflation again. and the rates went back up.
So look, in a steady-state environment, I expect that we will continue to grow our mortgage revenues and drive profits independent of changes in the relationship with FICO or the cost of the FICO score in mortgage. And I know we can talk about that in a bit more detail. The new pricing that we've put out in the market preserves and grows our '25 level of profitability from the mortgage segment. It also gives us more degrees of freedom in how we manage it. And then as the market gets comfortable with 2 scores and begins to choose between FICO and Vantage, every VantageScore sold in the market is a new revenue opportunity with a very high profit fall-through for the bureaus, right?
We've never been able to enjoy any profits on the mortgage score before. But the mortgage score has been a rapidly increasing cost that's driving up the top line, but not producing any profit. And so it's been a consistent pressure on our margins, right? Now with a different relationship with FICO, we can separate that out, and we'll be able to show the core of the business independent of the FICO score, the growth rate, the profit pool and the considerable margin health of that part of the business. And then we can focus on the impact that the score has on the profitability of the enterprise and the like.
You think we'll learn a lot in '26? Like is there enough interest in Vantage that you'll actually see [indiscernible] adoption [indiscernible] '26.
The starting point that I would say is -- all the lenders are familiar with the VantageScore. All the lenders use the VantageScore today. They use it for portfolio management. They use it to value their collections before they sell it to third parties. They give it away to consumers. They use it for internal analytic purposes because they want to manage their costs, right? They haven't been able to use it in mortgage origination because of a regulatory hurdle. That's been lifted.
And the securitization markets, right?
And yes, for 30 years, there was only one score permitted. And all of the elements within mortgage origination through securitization and purchase are kind of calibrated around FICO, right? But it's not like the banks are starting from -- it's not a standing start and familiarity with the Vantage. It's also important to point out that there are large players like Synchrony and card that only use Vantage and securitize with. right? And that there are players in the auto market that also use Vantage.
And there are plenty of lenders that originate mortgages that they hold on their own books that use Vantage because they wanted to have a more predictive score at a lower price point. So there's a lot of familiarity. That said, there's also a lot of learning and experimenting and just gaining of comfort in a year of transition. So I think '26 is going to be about allowing free access to the VantageScore for all of the lenders so they can do the analytic work and the calibration to understand what, if any, impact Vantage would have and then grease the skids for greater adoption and share transfer in '26 and '27 and I think increasingly thereafter. And again, it's important to point out that we have retained and will grow our pool of profits on mortgage in '26 with the pricing that we put in place.
And there's a lot of upside as market share shifts to Vantage, which it inevitably will, we're going to have something new to sell that has a very high flow-through to profit. It's going to drive EPS. It will be helpful to margin, et cetera.
I didn't quite hear if you had said anything about [ prequal ] and pre-approval. So...
Thanks for the reminder.
In originations, you have to go by what the GSEs want or let's say, to what securitization markets want and you're going to have a tri-merge. But in [ prequal ] and pre-approval, when lenders are looking for consumers to lend to in mortgage, they could use 1B. And somehow, there really has been a trend. I can't exactly say when it started, but it was somewhere about 1.5 years ago, where in prequal and preapproval, and I assume it's just because of cost because they don't know if that's going to originate or not, that there's more use of 1B and 2B. Just tell us where we're at. Like do you feel like that has stabilized? And then, of course, I'm going to ask you, how does TransUnion position itself to be that in that 1B or 2B?
Yes, for sure. So the early assessment program, which now allows a lender to pull credit score and submit it to the GSEs and get an indication of whether the GSEs would ultimately purchase that loan has been in place for a while. And so I think initially, there was thinking that we would go from 3 to 1, but that hasn't happened. And part of it, of course, is transitions take time. But the more important factor is just understanding the revenue dynamics of lenders and brokers. And when they are working with a prospect and it's a revenue opportunity, right, and they're competing for that business, if they pull only one, right, there's a chance that they may not get approval for that client because the bureau score may not be high enough or it may not be optimized to get that client the lowest price.
And without the lowest price, the client may shop more. And so they're incented to pull more than 1, which is why today, they're pulling 2-plus bureau files per origination. But then on top of it, the compensating positive is that with the early assessment program, you can pull a credit report and not have a hard inquiry show up on the credit file and hard inquiries degrade your credit score, right?
Now it's a soft pull. So now the consumers know that, they can shop more. And so you're seeing shopping activity compensating for some of the pull savings that the prequal program was intended to produce, right? So the net of it is not that great a diminishment in the upfront credit diligence that we're seeing.
Okay. So you're saying it's sort of a wash at this point, close to a wash.
Yes, it's close to a wash or certainly not concerning diminishment, right, for the industry. The other thing I would say is, look, we have been well positioned and I think performed well from a share perspective in that part of the mortgage chain because there's a lot of respect for our trended data. There's a lot of respect for the innovation that we've produced in alternative data, whether it's going down market and having the Subprime and the unsecured type of data as well as a leading share of rental payments that are contributed that can now be used. And so I'm -- I think you've seen us gaining share in that segment since this has been announced a couple of years ago. And I don't see anything that's going to disrupt that.
Okay. Great. Turning to Emerging Verticals. In the third quarter, you achieved 7.5% organic revenue growth, which is really the fastest organic revenue growth that we've seen in years. My questions are sort of multifold. Like one, what sort of made that happen? And is it sustainable? And particularly, would you be pointing to fraud prevention and marketing solutions?
Yes, and I would, yes, kind of across the board. I do think a higher growth rate is sustainable. And maybe the first thing is just to orient roughly 78% of our revenue, which is $4.5 billion plus in '25. comes out of the U.S. So it's 80% in the U.S. And of that 80%, it's a 50-50 split between the traditional credit information and then things like consumer, fraud, marketing, analytics, communication solutions, investigative solutions, the related products.
I would say that part of what gives me confidence in high single-digit revenue growth go forward is that all of those products have been substantially retooled and improved and are starting to grow at faster rates. And that's certainly true of marketing and it's very true of the communication solutions, which has been compounding low double digits since we acquired the business.
It's been amazing, and it's a huge market. And the type of authentication that we're providing to inbound and outbound phone calls, we will also expand and begin providing to text messages, which are another vector of fraud. And then in this era of AI, bots can make phone calls and impersonate people, but we have technology that can listen to the content of that call and identify whether it's a bot or a human, right? So there's a lot of vectors for growth around communications authentication, which is part of fraud mitigation or marketing effectiveness and then core to our strategy.
So all of the products that are overweighted relative to credit in the emerging sector are better and starting to grow faster and thus lifting the growth rate in the sector. If we can continue to execute and grow those things more rapidly, and it's a combination of having built better products, but also adding sales resources, which we are doing substantially in the second half of this year, we're going to permanently get higher growth rates out of that part of the portfolio.
Okay. That makes sense to me. When you're talking about OneTru, one of the biggest things is an enhanced identity graph. I would say core to a credit bureau is identity graph. How do you know that OneTru is a leading identity graph? And do you feel like you're winning some of those solutions in marketing and fraud preventing the course of OneTru's identity graph compared to other choices?
Sure. Well, look, identity data in the identity graph underpins every information product. It just happens that credit reporting agencies have particularly broad and accurate and current identity because consumers maintain the quality of that information because they don't want to get evicted from their homes or have their cars repossessed or their credit cards cut off. So it's kind of the gold standard for identity.
So having that as a foundation is helpful. But we're also the only bureau that also has a public records business in the U.S. And so -- and I always hate to say this, but we're kind of -- we're #2 behind LexisNexis in public records. We hoover in publicly available information at the federal, at the state, at the municipal level, all of that produces tremendous identity signal. And that is core in our data foundation and part of our identity graph. We're also a leading provider of marketing information.
Marketing information helps us substantially enrich the identities in the underlying graph. And then finally, because we are one of the leaders in online fraud mitigation and phone-based fraud, right, we're getting a ton of device-based identity signal that we're able to then associate back to individuals and individual addresses and then the entire range of information that we have. So in short, we have the best identity in the market because we have the most expansive collection of relevant data. And we've been able to all associate this around that core object.
That core identity object, again, is common across our whole suite of solutions. So if you're doing credit analysis and you develop the prioritized list of consumers that you want to market to, when you then pivot to enriching those with marketing information and developing audiences to then market to, there's no degradation. There's no identity signal loss as you move between credit, marketing and fraud. It's all common and it persists across the process. And that is unique in a structural industry change that we have created with these investments in the OneTru platform.
And so I don't know if you said this or others have said this before, they've said, look, everybody's got identity. Everybody talks about identity. Every restaurant has food, too. It doesn't mean it's the same, right? You can go to McDonald's or you can eat a multi-michelin star. We're more of the latter.
But are you -- like have you ever had any third-party benchmarking of your identity graphs. Like to me, it seems...
No, but I'll tell you what, because there is no third party, but I'll tell you what. Identity is growing in the high teens since we have innovated in the way that I just described. And the clients bake it off every day in the course of their decision-making around credit marketing and fraud. We know it performs extremely well. And not only is it a great repository of data, around which we -- that we have appended to these customer identities. But we can take identity as a service and push it out into the data ecosystem where our clients' data lives.
So they don't have to ship the data back and forth, which they very much don't want to do, right? So I can push my identity graph and my identity resolution capabilities into some big banks data center where they've got conflicting and unreconciled consumer information coming in, and I can bring that together in a golden copy that they can use for all of their internal sources. If those banks have pushed into a public cloud provider or into the Snowflake stack, again, we're there as a consumable service.
So it's not just our identity that we can do that with, we can do that with all of our data and all of our data enrichment capabilities. We can push that widget out. We can connect it to our clients' data sources, and we can provide ongoing enrichment and rationalization of their underlying data.
Okay. Something that stood out to me in the conference call was you said that you've been tracking your AI-enabled customers and that they consume more data than, let's just say, a benchmark traditional cohort. I was hoping you could just talk more about that, like what are these AI-enabled customers doing differently with TransUnion? And then, of course, how is that going to lead to more revenue growth?
Well, I think AI in general, performs better, the more high-quality content you can put into it, right? And so clients that are increasingly relying on AI for parts of their analytic and either underwriting or fraud mitigation or marketing processes want the greatest volume of high-quality data input. And so if you are a data provider and you've got really good stuff, you're well positioned because they want to buy it and use it because it produces a better outcome for them. And we see that across the piece with clients that are kind of leading in AI adoption.
Okay. Question from the audience? Go ahead, [ Raj ].
What sort of customers -- so in terms of new customers, are you getting fraud first customers? Or are you getting credit first customers and cross-selling into one another? And then maybe a follow-up on that would be, by 2030, would you be known as a credit bureau? Or would you want to be known as a fraud data solutions provider company?
Sure. I would say from 2025 and even earlier, we are a global information and analytics company around consumer insights, anchored by credit certainly, which is a great data set and super predictive. But the information that we bring to bear for clients is far broader simply than credit as you look around our portfolio globally and as represented by 50-50 mix that we talked.
In terms of the synergy, the process complement between credit and marketing, you're going to see more cross-sell and more interplay there, right? Because -- I mean, look, think of it. If you're a risk officer and you want to originate more loans, you may look to the credit file first, and you may look to the credit file combined with other internal experience your bank has or your insurance company has with the market and figure out what segment of the market is most desirable for you.
But then you have to go actually get those customers. You have to plan the marketing in an intelligent and cost-effective way and then measure the success. And so you bridge over into marketing. So on the platform, we have built integration between the credit origination process as it goes from credit data analytics to marketing effectiveness and measurement. And that loop, that circle is going on every day, every month within our big clients. So I expect more cross-sell there going back.
Okay. I think we have to end. Chris and Greg, thank you very much. So next up is NIQ. If you want to grab an information service data book, they're up here. Thanks, everybody.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
TransUnion — J.P. Morgan 2025 Ultimate Services Investor Conference
TransUnion — Baird 55th Annual Global Industrial Conference
1. Question Answer
[indiscernible] Company. TransUnion is a leading consumer information company, one of the big 3 global credit bureaus.
With me on stage is CFO, Todd Cello. Also with us at the conference are the IR team of Greg and Jason.
Maybe to start out, it's been an interesting, I guess, 5 years. So just to help investors -- give investors a framework of how they should think about what type of growth company TransUnion is or what type of environment is required to generate high single-digit to low double-digit growth.
Over a long period of time, you've grown really well. 2 years ago, things were a little bit more challenged in 2022 and 2023. The last 2 years have been really good. So how much of that's the environment? How much of that is TransUnion-specific factors? Just kind of like frame up what kind of growth company TransUnion is?
Okay. Sounds good. Thank you for having us, Jeff. This has been a great conference. And I think it's a great place to start our discussion just so investors can get an appreciation of where we drive growth.
So clearly, '22 and '23 were unusual years in that the United States was impacted by significantly high inflation. And as a result of that, interest rates were on the rise. So what happened during that period of time is it created a significant amount of uncertainty for our core group of customers focused on lending.
Nobody really knew at that point in time when interest rates were going to stop rising. So that uncertainty slowed our customers down in regards to acquiring new business. So in both years, in '22 and '23, we grew 3%. We clearly do not aspire for 3% growth. But considering what had happened during those years, also some banking failures during that time as well that had an impact, not indicative of the company, but being able to grow 3% did show the overall resiliency of the portfolio and the design of it overall.
I'd characterize the growth that we've seen in '24 and '25 is more like what you should expect from TransUnion on a year-over-year basis, that high single-digit growth, perhaps even getting to double-digit growth. And when I think about where the growth has come from in '24 and '25, I mean relative stability in the U.S. in core financial services.
We still see lending volumes up. We were calling it subdued in the middle of the year. I think now we're calling it more stable. We're seeing a good uptick in areas like consumer lending, where we have a terrific position with fintechs. We saw strong growth in the third quarter there. We also saw good growth in our core credit and credit card and banking customers, but a little bit more modest growth. They're starting to acquire customers and originate, but perhaps at a slower rate.
Auto has had kind of fits and starts throughout the year because of tariff impact. There were some pull forwards a couple of times this year, but overall, relative stability. And I'd highlight auto as an area that we have had outsized growth considering that the volumes have been somewhat tempered. And really what that is, is it's more of a testament to the diversification of the products that we're able to sell into auto.
Products like our trusted call solutions as well as our marketing products have really taken hold in that space. And that's what you should expect from us as we go forward. And in particular, those products, they're really going to resonate more in our emerging verticals. And we were pleased with the performance in the third quarter where we grew 7.5%.
In those businesses, it's outside of core lending in the U.S., and we're focused on areas like technology, retail, e-commerce, media and a whole host of other vertical markets. But we're driving into those businesses are our new products. So the trusted call solutions, the marketing, the fraud capabilities.
So when you think about the transformation that TransUnion has been under for the last several years, moving all of our data assets to what we call OneTru, the results that we're seeing in the emerging verticals are indicative of what we're expecting on a go-forward basis.
Outside of the U.S., our international portfolio has had -- it has a balance to it. If I were to go back a couple of years, I'd say India, when we were growing 3%, India was growing really strong. And then this year, what we're experiencing is more the developed markets of Canada and the United Kingdom where we're growing. And that's all intentional, the design of the portfolio to be able to perform when one area is up and the other one is down. So think of this business more high single-digit grower on a go-forward basis.
Is the consumer or your end markets does it feel like they're improving? I think you said you were characterizing them as subdued. Now you're talking about being stable. Some of the labor market data has been weak, so that might be different than some investor perceptions.
So we continue to see a relatively healthy consumer. That's the best way to characterize it. And clearly, we've seen news with layoff announcements that are now a little bit more prevalent in the marketplace. But for our business, through what we've experienced, we do see a consumer that is living up to their financial obligations because they are employed and they have real wage growth. I mean those are key drivers for our business.
And when they're employed and they have the real wage growth, that enables them to pay their financial obligations. So that feeds right into delinquencies. And the delinquencies, needless to say, we have a great perspective on that because of the data that we maintain. And what we've seen is a normal level of delinquencies. I would characterize what happened again, going back to '22 and '23, kind of unusually low delinquency rates because consumers had forbearance programs. So the delinquencies went down meaningfully.
And I'd say where we're at right now is we're back at more of a normal level. If you look at the delinquencies across areas like consumer lending and auto and mortgage and credit card and compare it to pre-pandemic, we're about at those same levels. So that's a good indicator for us about the overall health of the consumer. I would say, though, we are seeing a little bit of a bifurcation in consumers. And what I mean by that is we're seeing more consumers that are -- would be considered super prime. There's more of a percentage of those super prime consumers now in the latest quarter.
And at the other end of the spectrum, the subprime consumers, there's more of those consumers. And just to give you the numbers, it's about 40% are in the super prime category and about 14% are in the subprime category. So what's happening is the middle is compressing. So the lower income consumer is under more -- a little bit more pressure, but the consumer in the super prime is performing well. And that's really -- you see that in how purchasing and like retail sales have held on because those are the consumers that are pretty much driving that.
TransUnion puts out a study called the Credit Industry Insights report. We just put it out in our newsroom last week. All the details are in there. So I'd recommend checking that out. Otherwise, in the market, we also look at our customer health as well, too. And with the recent earnings season wrapping up, a lot of the large banks, but also the medium and small-sized banks had good earnings. And of course, when you put away -- put aside some of the businesses that we wouldn't support like investment banking, and you look at their lending operations, we were encouraged by what we consider to be strong results. And what's indicative there is that we didn't see an increase in loan loss reserves, anything that would be kind of a trouble spot for the customers.
So we look at it from a balanced perspective. And right now, it's stable, and that's how we're planning the business right now, but cautiously watching.
So is it a fair characterization that you put up like 3% organic growth when you're facing macro headwinds in the 2022 and 2023 years, you put up high single-digit growth without a lot of macro tailwind. Is that how you see it?
I think what happened in '22 and '23 was such an outlier as far as how fast interest rates went up and the Federal Reserve's response was something we hadn't seen in decades. So I think that, that was just such an anomaly. But I think it's -- if you were to look at and think about the overall performance of the portfolio in a time when maybe there's not as much growth, as I've been saying, the design is intentional, whether it's in the U.S. markets, core financial services is always going to be what it's going to be, but we're intentional about the vertical -- the emerging verticals that we operate in to be able to have a countercyclical play. And the same thing happens within our international business as well too.
And do any markets feel like they're running hot for you or where like you worry that there's -- what's been a growth driver that may not repeat? Or I don't know if you can hit on FICO pricing as part of this?
I would say right now, I don't feel like there is any one particular market that's running hot. I would say that where we do have outperformance in areas like in Canada and the U.K., where we've posted high single to double-digit growth. A lot of that has been on our team and their execution being able to drive innovation, but also to take share with that innovation. So those areas have been performing pretty well. Otherwise, I wouldn't look in anything in the U.S. as I would say it's like overheated or running too hot. Happy to go into the pricing, but how did you want me to handle that one?
Let's just -- before we get there, you kind of gave a look in one of your slides, I think it was Slide 4 of the most recent investor presentation where you deconstructed your U.S. markets growth. It was 13% underlying growth, 4% volume or new wins. You just mentioned some of the new wins. 5% pricing. Before we get to there, you also get 4% from noncredit growth. Talk about what's driving the noncredit growth.
Yes, absolutely. So when you -- when we look at -- and that's intentional, too, right? As far as the diversification of our product offerings, you know us as a credit reporting agency, but we've invested in concept of identity resolution, right, and being able to take our data assets and resolve a consumers' identity so our customers and the consumer can transact with confidence in a digital world. And natural offshoots of that would be going into areas like marketing and fraud.
So when I look at the growth that we're experiencing outside of credit in the most recent quarter, we're seeing good growth coming from our marketing suite of products. And that's a couple of years' worth of effort in replatforming product, our TruAudience product, also just changing our go-to-market strategy as well, too. It's starting to yield some very significant benefits for us.
Our trusted call solutions is another area that I would highlight. This is a business that we expect to generate about $150 million in revenue in 2025. Just 3 years ago, this was a $50 million business for us. And what in essence is doing is it's bringing the voice channel back into interactions with consumers. I don't answer my mobile if I don't recognize the number. So we're bringing trust back into that area, growing significantly, there's international applicability to it. So we could take this outside the U.S. So there's a lot of momentum going there.
I'd highlight another area would be our FactorTrust database. It's not core credit. It's a short-term lending credit bureau that we have. And we used that as a proof of concept for our transformation or tech modernization. And in the most recent quarter, we saw 20% growth out of that. And that area fuels a lot of the good growth that we see in financial services, consumer lending. So just another good example of innovation.
And yes, I'll leave it at those 3.
And then for pricing, so you get 5 points of growth from pricing in U.S. markets. How much of that is FICO? And how much of that is other pricing initiatives?
Yes. So as far as pricing initiatives that TransUnion undertakes, I mean, we have a regular process on an annual basis. We look at our pricing and we pass regular increases on a CPI, CPI plus type of outlook. The vast majority of the price increase, though, is in mortgage just because of the magnitude of what the FICO price increase was. But I don't want you to take away from this that we don't have pricing power because we do. We just haven't taken it to the extent that one of our partners did.
And then there's a change in the market where FICO is offering an option where resellers can buy directly from FICO instead of buying from the bureaus. How will that impact your business and your financials?
Well, I think it provides us with a tremendous opportunity to put the value back on the data as opposed to on the score. So if you think about any type of scoring algorithm, it doesn't work unless there's data behind it. So our approach towards this new price dynamic that's been introduced in the market is we're going to put all the value on the data where we feel that it rightfully belongs. So that's been our primary focus with this.
And then you also think about what TransUnion does with the data and what it enables. And to expand on that, we're creating credit files on consumers. So there's a lot of expertise linking and matching to pull disparate pieces together to create a comprehensive file on the consumer. We have cybersecurity issues that we have to make certain that we're safeguarding this data asset that we're entrusted with.
We have regulatory obligations as well being a credit reporting agency. We have -- as an example, we have to handle consumer inbounds if they have a dispute on their credit report. So all of those things are critical part of being a credit reporting agency that any type of score is going to benefit from that infrastructure.
But before we get to the opportunity for VantageScore adoption within mortgage, I guess, do you make yourself whole on the bundled pricing because of the value of the data? Or is there any impact on your 2026 or go-forward financials from the changes that FICO has enacted?
Yes. So the way that probably the best way to think about this would be just the pricing that we've put into the market. If I look at the pricing that we have in place in 2025, a credit report plus FICO in one bundle or a credit report plus VantageScore in another bundle, we have those priced exactly the same today. Now clearly, there's not many people using VantageScore, but we do have them priced the same.
When we go into 2026, that same bundle of the credit report and VantageScore will carry the same price. So there's really no price increase going on there. But where the price increase is happening is TransUnion received a $10 royalty now or will receive in 2026 from FICO. So our approach is to pass that expense on to our customer and charge a processing fee. And the processing fee is really a reflection of all the things that I just talked about, about what a credit reporting agency does and the value that we have.
So what we've been solving for with all of this is to protect our profit dollars related to this change. So what I would expect as we go forward and VantageScore hasn't been adopted. The GSEs haven't set it up yet. What that will mean for us is the status quo as we go into 2026. We'll have higher revenue because we're going to pass through the FICO score as well as the processing fee, but our margin percentage will be a little bit lower and the -- but the margin dollars will be protected.
Now what happens is if -- as we move forward and if there's migration to the VantageScore, what we'll see happen is we'll generate less revenue because we're no longer going to pass through the $10 royalty to the -- to our end customer. And then we'll have the VantageScore on there. So we'll have a higher profit margin in that scenario. So these are going to be important dynamics as we get into 2026. And when we have our earnings call -- our next earnings call in February, we will clearly lay all of this out so you can understand.
What if a customer just goes to the tri-merge reseller the bundler and if they're buying the FICO score from FICO instead of you, is that a revenue headwind to you?
It would be a revenue headwind to us, but it would be accretive to our margin percentage in that scenario.
And what are the most important steps to driving adoption of VantageScore, uptake of VantageScore for mortgage where the market now for the first time is a choice in the conforming market?
Right. So the first thing that has to happen is the GSEs, so Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae need to change their systems. And it's called the loan level price adjustment matrix that they need to change, right? And they're working on that right now because up until this point, that's only been set up to accept FICO. So this is a big change once we're hopefully sometime in early 2026, that will be in place, that will enable our customers to be able to use the VantageScore. While that's going on our lenders, the lender customers also need to change their origination systems. So they can work on accepting the VantageScore as well, too. So those -- I would say that those are the 2 biggest things that need to happen.
And I would say from a Vantage adoption perspective, where we're proactively working with our customers is just to show the predictive -- the better predictive power of VantageScore. The VantageScore is based on trended data, so not a point in time. And if you follow TransUnion, we're the pioneers in credit -- trended credit data. And so that's a huge uptick because if you think about just using point-in-time data, it doesn't give you a full picture of how a consumer is performing.
So the VantageScore picks up that trended data. It also picks up alternative data as well, too. And what alternative data simply means is noncredit data. So think about -- a good example of that would be rental data as a consumer paying their rent on time. So what we see with VantageScore is we could score about 33 million more consumers than what we could see with the FICO score because of the dynamics that I just went through.
But that's relative to classic FICO, not relative.
Correct.
FICO 10T. How does Vantage perform relative to FICO 10T?
And unfortunately, we haven't been able to do that test yet. And from what we're hearing is it's forthcoming. Obviously, FICO is claiming that it's a stronger score. We just haven't been able to validate it to this point.
And are there other reasons, I guess, to use VantageScore? Or we'll just have to wait and see the data once like there's a bake-off relative to 10T? Price is the big one.
Well, I don't know -- I think it's a better score. Price will be a component of it. But the way we're leading is just the better predictive power of the score is really what we want the differentiator to be.
Got it. 2025 margins based on guidance are around 2022 margins, and you've had 2 years now of high single-digit organic underlying growth. Normally, when you have that kind of growth, you see margin expansion. Is there something that's different about the incremental margin model today? Or what are you incrementally investing in?
Yes, sure. So I'm going to take you back a couple of years ago to answer your question. So 2 years ago, we announced a transformation program to optimize our organizational model as well as to modernize our technology. We said it was a 2-year program. We'd spend up to about $375 million. We're wrapping that up. As part of that transformation -- part of that program, we enjoyed a 90 basis point increase in margin in 2024. So we went from 35.1% to 36% and as part of the program, it was always our intention that 2025 was going to be limited. The reason for that is the first leg of the margin expansion really came from us working on our org design and leveraging our global capability centers to standardize and centralize processes.
So we did that work largely in 2024, but our tech modernization needed all of 2025 to get that completed. So there's another $35 million worth of cost savings that we will secure at the end of 2025 at the conclusion of the program as we complete it. Now when we -- the tech transformation, we will stop the onetime spending, so no more non-GAAP adjustments as we go into 2026. However, the piece that's remaining is our customer migration in the U.S. And we want to handle that with the utmost care.
So we've decided to push the time line out to completion until Q2 of 2026. But we're going to do that, delivering the same $35 million of cost savings as well as doing things like we also committed to lowering our capital expenditures from 8% of revenue down to 6% of our revenue. In essence, what we're doing is we're running -- we're going to run 2 operating environments to make certain that we get the customer migration right. So we've been able to secure cost savings elsewhere in the business to be able to still live to the financial commitments that we gave 2 years ago.
So that gets -- we're at 36% this year. We made a small acquisition. But if you remember back in February, we actually guided at 36.2%. So when I look at this organically, excluding an acquisition, a small acquisition we made, we are putting up 20 basis points on an organic basis. As we go forward into 2026, the expectation is the cost saves from the program I just talked about, plus some other organic initiatives will give us some margin expansion opportunities.
However, the dynamics that we just talked through with the mortgage pricing is an important one to think through as far as what the -- maybe the margin percentage impact will be in 2026, not the dollars, dollars will be protected, but just the margin percentage. And it's all going to pertain to adoption of either the VantageScore or in the example, the question you asked, Jeff, about the reseller calculating the FICO score themselves, right? So there'll be some scenarios to walk through when we get to our February earnings call.
And when you said solid margin expansion in '26, is that on an organic basis before considering the accounting-driven margin headwind from the Mexico acquisition. Talk through the implications to margins from the Mexico acquisition.
Yes, for sure. So TransUnion today owns a little bit less than 26% of the largest credit bureau in Mexico. In January, we announced an acquisition of that business. We're currently going through the regulatory approval process. We're expecting the transaction to either close here in the late fourth quarter, more than likely, though, in the first quarter.
As part of owning a little bit less than 26% of the business, we have been accounting for that business under the equity method. So what that means is we've been picking up minority interest. And that's been benefiting our EBITDA. So when you think about when we make the acquisition, we will be able to consolidate 100% of the revenue, but we'll -- when we get the entire EBITDA, there's already a piece that we have. So we'll need to adjust for that. And again, when we close, we will make certain that, that's very clear and lay out all the moving pieces on that.
Are you going to be an AI winner? Or is AI a risk factor for you?
We think that we are going to be an AI winner for sure. I mean machine learning has been at the heart of what TransUnion has done for a long time and how we're able to leverage what we have to drive product innovation as well as operational efficiencies, we see just a tremendous amount of opportunities.
On the revenue side of things, just some early wins we've seen have been in our fraud suite of products, helping to detect synthetic fraud or something called credit washing, in essence, where a consumer disputes a credit -- a trade line on their file and it's pulled and then they go apply for credit when they don't have that dispute on there.
If you think about the unique position we're in where we're able to see all of that, AI plays a pretty cool role in enabling us to detect those types of things. So that's just an example. There's a whole host of others that are on our OneTru platform. From an operational perspective, just a tremendous amount of opportunity as far as how we interact, make interactions with consumers easier by leveraging AI. We have a lot of touch points with consumers that maybe we can have them be a lot more self-service, which I think they would appreciate as well as in our OneTru environment, we're using it today with something called OneTru Assist, which, in essence, is enabling our developers to speak to clean up code or to modify code. So not enough time to go through, but there's other examples.
Any revenue or data sources that you have that are more reliant upon the aggregation of publicly available data that you're watching from a risk perspective?
I would say, for the most part, that our data assets are unique to us. And the value really is being able to pull together that data around a common ID. And when you think about the credit header, what sits on top of a credit report, the indicative information on a consumer, that, in essence, we're able to leverage to be able to piece disparate pieces together, and that's really what I think differentiates us.
Got it. Thank you.
Thank you.
That's all that we have for questions in this room. Todd and the team will be available for a follow-up now in the Oak room. Please join me in thanking the team.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
TransUnion — Baird 55th Annual Global Industrial Conference
TransUnion — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and welcome to the TransUnion's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Greg Bardi, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for attending today. Joining me on the call are Chris Cartwright, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Todd Cello, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We posted our earnings release and slides to accompany this call on the TransUnion Investor Relations website this morning, and this can also be found in the current report on Form 8-K that we filed this morning.
Our earnings release and the accompanying slides include various schedules, which contain more detailed information about revenue, operating expenses and other items as well as certain non-GAAP disclosures and financial measures along with the corresponding reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures. Today's call will be recorded and a replay will be available on our website. We will also be making statements during the call that are forward-looking. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements because of factors discussed in today's earnings release in the comments made during this conference call and in our most recent Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q and other reports and filings with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement.
With that, let me turn it over to Chris.
Thanks, Greg. During the third quarter, TransUnion again exceeded all key guidance metrics and achieved its seventh consecutive quarter of high single-digit organic revenue growth. These results demonstrate the growing momentum of our innovation-led strategy. I want to outline 4 key highlights from the quarter. First, we delivered market-leading and diversified growth with revenue increasing by 11% on an organic constant currency basis, excluding the significant breach remediation win from last year, which represents our strongest underlying performance since 2024.
Second, we are raising our 2025 guidance across all metrics, reflecting our strong third quarter performance stable lending trends in the U.S. and new business wins. U.S. lending conditions continue to be solid, characterized by modest GDP growth, still strong employment, stable delinquencies and lower interest rates and manageable inflation, and this is despite emerging concerns regarding a slowing labor market and stress first for lower-income consumers.
Third, we advanced our technology modernization with successful migration of our first U.S. credit customers. OneTru is accelerating our pace of innovation in credit and noncredit products. We remain on track to achieve our remaining structural cost savings in 2026 as anticipated. And fourth, we accelerated our share repurchases to take advantage of highly attractive valuation levels. During the third quarter, in October, we repurchased $160 million in shares, bringing the year-to-date total to $200 million.
Additionally, we increased our share repurchase authorization to $1 billion underscoring our commitment to delivering value to shareholders. Further details on each of these highlights are discussed below. Now our third quarter results demonstrate effective execution against our growth playbook, with strength evident across our solutions, our verticals and our geographies. U.S. markets delivered 13% organic constant currency revenue growth when excluding last year's breach win. Financial Services grew 19% or 12% excluding mortgage, reflecting continued broad-based outperformance in a stable and modestly growing market.
Emerging Verticals accelerated to 7.5%, their strongest growth since 2022. Our noncredit solutions, which account for over half of U.S. markets revenue grew 8%. We -- these results reflect the emerging commercial benefits across our vertical markets from our accelerating innovation in credit marketing, fraud and communications. Now international revenue grew by 6% on an organic constant currency basis. Canada, the U.K. and Africa all exceeded expectations and achieved double-digit growth despite muted economic conditions in each market. India grew 5%, slightly below our outlook as new tariffs impacted U.S. export-dependent small- and medium-sized businesses, which tempered the pace of lending recovery. We now expect high single-digit revenue growth in India in the fourth quarter. On a positive note, we experienced some volume improvement in the first days of the festival season in late September and early October. This is supported by further pro growth actions from the RBI and the Indian government. Todd will provide a comprehensive review of our results in just a minute.
Now looking ahead, we're raising our 2025 outlook based on our strong third quarter results, stable U.S. lending trends and our continued commercial momentum. Our guidance raise maintains a prudently conservative approach, which offers likely upside if current lending conditions continue. Now at the high end of guidance, we now expect 8% organic constant currency revenue growth or 9% excluding last year's large breach win. 9% adjusted EBITDA growth and 9% adjusted diluted earnings per share growth. Excluding the 400 basis point impact of a higher tax rate in 2025 and our results show another year of double-digit EPS growth, supported by our consistent execution and the strength of our diversified and resilient portfolio. Now we continue to advance our technology modernization to drive cost savings, accelerate innovation and enable sustainable growth. In the third quarter, we completed the migration of our first U.S. credit customers key milestone. We're enabling these clients with faster processing speeds and seamless access to our newest innovations, including TruIQ analytics.
Additionally, we expanded our dual run program for key customers. We're partnering closely with our customers to ensure smooth transitions ahead of a full migration. And by year-end, we expect OneTru to power a critical mass of our run rate U.S. Credit volume and revenue. and we plan to complete all U.S. migrations by mid-2026. Over the year, we identified incremental third-party spend and other internal savings to deliver our targeted savings for 2026 and allow additional time to complete U.S. credit migrations.
In '26, we expect to deliver $35 million of operating expense savings and reduced capital expenditures to 6% of revenue. We will leverage these savings to drive margin expansion in '26 and fund growth investments. We anticipate no technology-related onetime expense add-backs in 2026. Next year, our technology modernization will shift to our international markets. We've launched True IQ analytic platform in Canada, the U.K. and India in 2025. Next year, we plan to export other entree enabled solutions to these markets and start modernizing the core credit capabilities across Canada, the U.K. [indiscernible]
OneTru is our definition platform. and we expect to fund these migrations through normal operations, driving additional savings in 2027 and beyond while diffusing our innovative solutions globally. Now our technology modernization is enabling commercial success across our solutions. We see new products rapidly gaining market traction, and we've built a robust innovation pipeline to fuel our next phase of growth.
FactorTrust has delivered exceptional results. We secured multiple new wins in the quarter and continue to expand the pipeline. FactorTrust has been a key driver of outperformance in our consumer lending business throughout the year. and we anticipate roughly 20% growth from FactorTrust in 2025. TruIQ data enrichment launched on Snowflake with the first few live customers. The Snowflake partnership expands the market opportunity for data enrichment and underscores our commitment to meet customers wherever their data lives. Data enrichment has quickly become one of our most successful recent product launches. In fraud, we experienced strong demand for our newest synthetic fraud models and credit washing solutions. These new tools are built on OneTru and leverage our augmented identity graph which now includes integrated public records and delivers better fraud signals.
With OneTru, we're beginning to penetrate the large and fast-growing global market for advanced fraud analytics. We're accelerating growth in our marketing suite as well, driven by strong demand for our enhanced cloud-based identity resolution and audience activation capabilities. Over the last few years, we streamlined our marketing suite down from 87 products across 6 separate platforms into a single integrated marketing platform on OneTru. This integrated solution improves performance and simplifies our product portfolio for sellers and customers.
Trusted call solutions continues to scale with new customer wins and ongoing capability enhancements. We expect to deliver over $150 million in revenue in 2025, a 30%-plus increase year-over-year, and we also continue to pursue global expansion opportunities for TCS. And in Consumer Solutions, our freemium model is increasing in users and offers available. We're also migrating our indirect customers globally onto a new platform that combines our credit education identity protection and financial offers behind a single set of APIs.
OneTru brings together our unique data within a single workflow platform. making it easier to deploy AI solutions across use cases and at scale. And TU is well positioned for AI-led growth. Our credit solutions are based on proprietary data contributed by thousands of individual furnitures. This data is not publicly available and can only be gathered and utilized within demanding regulatory frameworks. Our noncredit solutions also are developed from data gathered from tens of thousands of sources, many unique to TransUnion and then combined with proprietary data exhaust from our fraud and marketing solutions. This vast ray of data fuels our credit, fraud and marketing predictive models, which already use advanced machine learning and AI to boost accuracy and to facilitate actions based on their better predictions.
And increasingly, TransUnion will capture value with AI agents by performing work currently done by internal client teams or automation upstream from our data and analytics. And our most AI-enabled customers already consume more of our data than our traditional customers, and they adopt our newer solutions more rapidly. So we are actively leveraging AI across the enterprise to drive faster product development to enhance customer experience and improve ops efficiency.
Internally, OneTru Assist and OneTru AI studio are driving productivity gains for our software developers and data scientists but also for nontechnical teams. Within the OneTru [indiscernible] platform, Agentic AI is enhancing core processes such as data onboarding, ID resolution, analytics and delivery. And at the product level, we're embedding AI into our solutions, including role-based agents for TruIQ analytics, our next-generation fraud detection model and advanced consumer behavioral analytics in our marketing suite.
So in summary, the tech modernization is driving rapid innovation and ops efficiency, but it's also positioning us to lead in the next phase of AI-driven growth. Our strong earnings and solid balance sheet have enabled us to boost capital returns for our shareholders. In the third quarter and October, we ramped up share repurchases to $160 million, increasing our total for the year to $200 million, and this reflects our ongoing commitment to shareholder value. The board recently raised our share repurchase authorization to $1 billion and we believe buying back shares is especially attractive given our current market valuation.
Now with that, I'll hand it over to Todd.
Thanks, Chris, and let me add my welcome to everyone. As Chris mentioned, we exceeded guidance across all key financial metrics in the third quarter, driven by U.S. Financial Services and Emerging Verticals. Consolidated revenue increased 8% on a reported and 7% on an organic constant currency basis. The [indiscernible] acquisition added 0.5% to growth. The foreign currency impact was immaterial. Excluding the comparison to last year's large breach remediation win, organic constant currency growth was 11%. Mortgage contributed 3 points to growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased 8% with margin at 36.3%, above our 35.6% to 36.2% guidance due to revenue flow-through.
Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $1.10, $0.06 ahead of the high end of our guidance and an increase of 6%. In the third quarter, we incurred $34 million of onetime charges related to our transformation program, $12 million for operating model optimization and $22 million for technology transformation. Cumulative onetime transformation expenses total $49 million, and we remain on track and within budget for our $355 million to $375 million in onetime expenses by the end of 2025.
Looking at segment financial performance for the third quarter. U.S. markets revenue was up 7% on an organic constant currency basis versus the prior year or 13% excluding the impact of last year's large breach win. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 38.4%, up 70 basis points due to revenue flow-through and lower product costs compared to the prior year. Financial Services revenue grew 19% or 12% excluding mortgage. In the U.S. consumers remain resilient with still low unemployment and positive wage growth and lenders well positioned with adequate capital and healthy credit performance.
Our growth reflects strong performance against the favorable and stable market backdrop. We continue to outperform the market by driving new business wins across our solution suites. Credit card and banking rose 5% against modestly improving online volumes. We continue to see good sales momentum with trusted call solutions and alternative data.
Consumer lending grew 17%, driven by healthy marketing and origination activity from fintech and point-of-sale lenders. FactorTrust also delivered another strong quarter. Auto grew 16%, driven by pricing as well as growth in communications and marketing solutions. We saw an uptick in activity in the quarter including increased electric vehicle sales in September ahead of the expiration of the federal EV tax credit. We anticipate volumes to normalize in the fourth quarter.
Mortgage revenue grew 35% on flat inquiry volumes, benefiting from third-party scores pricing and non tri-bureau revenue. Mortgage now represents 12% of trailing 12-month revenue. Emerging Verticals grew 7.5%, led by double-digit growth in insurance. other verticals accelerated as well, driven by strength in trusted call solutions, marketing and specialized risk, tax retail and e-commerce and collections posted double-digit growth.
Media & Communications grew mid-single digits and tenant and employment grew low single digits. Public sector declined due to revenue timing. In Insurance, we delivered another strong quarter. Consumer shopping remains elevated credit-based marketing activity continues to normalize as insurers benefit from improved rate adequacy complemented by new wins in our modern marketing solutions. Commercial momentum continued in core credit and driving history products as well as trusted call solutions.
Turning to Consumer Interactive. Revenue declined 18% on an organic constant currency basis due to last year's breach remediation win. Excluding this impact, Consumer Interactive grew mid-single digits with growth in both the direct and indirect channels. For my comments about International, all revenue growth comparisons will be in organic constant currency terms. For the total segment, revenue grew 6%. Canada and the U.K. delivered double-digit growth, demonstrating our ability to outgrow market volumes in our most mature markets.
Africa and the Philippines also grew double digits. Other markets, including India, Latin America and Hong Kong experienced below-trend market volumes and growth rates. Adjusted EBITDA margin for our International segment was 43.2%. Looking at the specifics for each region. India grew 5%, slightly below our expectations as recent trade actions tempered the pace of volume recovery. We now anticipate the high single-digit revenue growth in India in the fourth quarter.
In late 2023 and throughout 2024, the Reserve Bank of India took actions to slow lending by tightening regulations and targeting lower loan-to-deposit ratios industry-wide. These actions included temporary bands of several nonbanking finance companies. Volumes troughed in the fourth quarter of 2024 with gradual improvement throughout 2025. We Conditions overall are favorable with manageable delinquencies and modest inflation.
The RBI lowered rates by 100 basis points throughout 2025 and lifted lending bands on the impacted nonbanking finance company. The recovery has been measured. Loan-to-deposit ratios are still modestly elevated and non-bank finance companies have conservatively returned to the market. Lenders are prioritizing existing customers and lower volume, higher notional loans over new-to-credit opportunities. These dynamics have underpinned our guidance throughout the year.
Recent U.S. tariffs of 50% on Indian imports, however, introduced uncertainty and has dampened commercial lending particularly to small and medium-sized businesses in export-oriented sectors. This has resulted in new pressures on CapEx, employment and credit demand. On a positive note, the Indian government recently enacted tax reforms and the RBI proposed further regulatory easing to support lenders and stimulate growth.
Volumes in the early festive season in late September and early October, while still dampened from tariff effects showed some improvement. We will monitor ongoing trends. From a TransUnion perspective, we continue to deliver double-digit growth in business wins and new product introductions, outperforming the broader market and our competitors. We remain highly confident in India's robust long-term growth potential. Our U.K. business grew 11%. Our strongest performance since 2022 driven by healthy volumes from our largest banking customers and new business wins across verticals. We also continue to expand our consumer indirect offering to new partners now serving over 27 million U.K. consumers. Canada also grew 11%.
We drove innovation-led share gains across financial services, telco, insurance and auto as well as new and expanded wins in fintech and Consumer Indirect. Latin America revenue was flat amid softer economic and lending conditions. Colombia delivered modest growth despite political uncertainty that weighed on government revenues and lending activity. Brazil declined as we lapped one-time project revenue.
Our other Latin America countries grew modestly, impacted by consumer uncertainty linked to recent trade and immigration policies. Strategic campaigns and innovation-led wins offset some of the near-term volume pressures in the region. Asia Pacific declined 8%. The Philippines remain strong, but Hong Kong faced a soft economic backdrop. We also lapped onetime consulting revenue from the prior year. Finally, Africa increased 12% and with broad-based growth across financial services, retail and insurance.
Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $5.1 billion of debt and $750 million of cash on the balance sheet. Our leverage ratio at quarter end declined to 2.7x as we continue to push toward our long-term target of under 2.5x. Our strengthening free cash flow and ongoing natural delevering positions us to accelerate capital returns to shareholders. We repurchased $160 million in shares in the third quarter and October, bringing the year-to-date total to $200 million.
We remain on track to complete the Mexico acquisition in late 2025 or early 2026, which will be funded with cash on hand and debt. We look forward to adding Mexico to our leading global portfolio and bringing our state-of-the-art technology, innovative solutions and industry expertise to Mexican consumers and businesses.
Turning to guidance. As Chris mentioned, we are raising our full year outlook, reflecting strong third quarter results, stable U.S. lending conditions and new business wins. Our guidance remains prudently conservative. If current conditions continue, we expect to deliver results at or above the high end of our guidance range. That brings us to our outlook for the fourth quarter. FX impact is expected to be minimal to both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. We expect our [ Monevo ] acquisition to contribute roughly 1% to revenue. We expect revenue to be between $1.119 and $1.139 billion, up 7% to 9% on an organic constant currency basis.
Our revenue guidance includes 2 points of tailwind from mortgage. In the fourth quarter, mortgage inquiries are expected to increase modestly. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $393 million and $407 million, up 4% to 8%. We expect an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.1% to 35.8% and down 70 to 130 basis points. We expect our adjusted EBITDA margin in the second half of the year to be roughly 36%, consistent with the first half of the year and full year expectations. We expect our adjusted diluted earnings per share to be between $0.97 and $1.02, down 1% to up 5%.
Turning to the full year. We anticipate FX to be immaterial to revenue and adjusted EBITDA and the Monevo acquisition to contribute 0.5% to revenue. We expect revenue of between $4.54 billion and $4.4 billion. We expect organic constant currency revenue growth of 8% and an increase from our prior guidance of 6% to 7%. Excluding mortgage, we expect organic constant currency growth of 5% to 6%. These growth rates include a 1% headwind in from last year's breach win comparison. Specific to our segment organic constant currency assumptions, we expect U.S. markets to be up high single digits or mid-single digits, excluding mortgage.
We now anticipate financial services to be up mid-teens or roughly 10%, excluding mortgage. We expect mortgage revenue to increase by nearly 30% against modest declines in mortgage inquiries. We expect emerging verticals to be up mid-single digit. We anticipate Consumer Interactive decreasing low single digit, but increasing low single digit when excluding the impact of last year's large breach win. We now anticipate international growing mid-single digits.
Turning back to the total company outlook. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $1.62 billion and $1.637 billion, up 8% to 9%, an increase from our prior guidance of 5% to 7% that would result in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.9% to 36.0%, down 10 basis points to flat. The anticipated adjusted diluted earnings per share to be $4.19 to $4.25, up 7% to 9%, also an increase from prior guidance of 3% to 6% growth. Our expected adjusted diluted earnings per share growth reflects strong double-digit underlying performance, excluding a 400 basis headwind from a higher tax rate in 2025, we expect depreciation and amortization to be approximately $570 million.
We expect the portion excluding step-up amortization from our 2012 change in control and subsequent acquisitions to be about $285 million as technology modernization initiatives go into production and start to depreciate. We anticipate net interest expense will be about $200 million for the full year. and we expect our adjusted tax rate to be approximately 26.5%. Capital expenditures are expected to be about 8% of revenue.
We continue to expect to incur $100 million to $120 million in onetime charges in 2025 related to the last year of our transformation program. Given those investments, we expect our free cash flow conversion as a percentage of adjusted net income to be 70% in 2025 before improving to 90% plus in [ 2026. ]
I will now turn the call back to Chris for closing remarks.
Thank you, Todd. So I'd like to provide some perspective on the recent changes in the mortgage market both in terms of score competition and also distribution. We believe that these changes are a net positive for TransUnion, enabling us to fully leverage our leading trended and alternative data to the benefit of homebuyers. Additionally, we believe that the introduction of score competition will redistribute the economic value in the mortgage credit market towards data providers and away from scores. And this is what we experienced in all markets where score competition exists. It's our extensive contributed data from thousands of lenders that forms the foundation of value in mortgage credit decisions, not the score. And we expect the proportion of value associated with data to increase over time now that competition is possible.
As a pioneer in trended data and an innovator in the alternative data space, TU will empower mortgage lenders to reward consumers for responsible credit behaviors while preserving the safety and soundness of the mortgage market. TransUnion is the only bureau with 30 months of trended credit data creating the most complete picture of consumers. And we continue to enhance our mortgage credit report with alternative data, including rental and utility trade lines and short-term lending attributes.
Now VantageScore 4.0 uses trended in alternative data to boost predictive accuracy and to expand financial access, scoring 33 million consumers that were previously credit invisible. And the score is already used by the largest banks and 3,700 institutions in total, including increasingly in securitization. Additionally, Vantage score is the leading credit score for credit education, serving 220 million consumers. So we believe that the combination of TransUnion's leading trended and alternative data alongside VantageScore 4.0 will shape a new era of more inclusive mortgage access, benefiting homebuyers, lenders and investors. And we provided further details on the importance of TransUnion in the lending ecosystem and the value proposition of the VantageScore in our appendix of this earnings presentation.
So starting in '26, we're expanding our mortgage credit offerings to accelerate Vantage score adoption. First, we'll offer VantageScore 40 at $4, significantly below FICO's announced price hike to $10. For customers that adopt Vantage Foo, the cost for a credit report plus the score in '26 will be similar to the cost of a credit report plus the FICO score in '25. Now to enable lender choice will also provide a free Vantage score for mortgage customers that purchase a FICO for from TransUnion through the end of 2026.
We'll also offer multiyear pricing for credit reports and VantageScore [ 4.0 ] to promote certainty after multiple years of rapid FICO price increases. And we'll launch a free Vantage or credit score simulator to empower prospective homebuyers to improve their credit scores and qualify for the best possible mortgage terms. So these offerings provide clear cost savings and predictable pricing for clients, emphasizing that the main value in lending is in the data. Our actions will preserve the profitability of our mortgage vertical regardless of changes in third-party score delivery models.
For TU, VantageScore adoption represents an incremental profit and margin opportunity over time. So looking at the industry broadly, even a modest recovery in mortgage activity would boost already attractive financial results. Mortgage originations in 2025 are roughly 40% below 2019 levels and at their lowest levels since the middle of the '90s. Despite this volume decline, we have built a strong profit base in mortgage. This year, we expect to deliver $580 million in mortgage revenues or $395 million when excluding the $185 million of no margin FICO royalties.
Now we expect an eventual normalization in mortgage activity with the pace largely determined by interest rates. Lower rates would drive substantial refinancing activity and start to unlock home purchase demand. Currently, over 9 million mortgages have rates above 6% compared to $5 million total mortgage originations in 2024. So if the average rates fall below 6%, we expect a significant increase in market activity. This normalization would significantly boost our earnings. Every 10% increase in mortgage volumes would add $40 million of adjusted EBITDA and $0.15 to our earnings, a full recovery to 2019 levels equates to $240 million of adjusted EBITDA increase or $0.90 in our earnings. And this represents a 20% increase to 2025 adjusted diluted earnings per share.
Any volume normalization would be in addition to the typical growth drivers in mortgage of pricing and innovation-led new business wins as well as the upside from Vantage score adoption. And lower interest rates would drive incremental volume demands across all lending categories, which also remained below the long-term trends. So taking this together, we remain confident in navigating this evolving mortgage landscape to maintain our attractive financial profile with upside from Vantage core adoption as well as an eventual recovery in lending volumes. Now in closing, TransUnion's strong third quarter and year-to-date results highlight the benefits of our multiyear strategic transformation. We view the high single-digit revenue growth in the double-digit underlying EPS growth in each of the last 2 years as indicative of the long-term earnings power of our business in stable conditions. And going forward, we're poised to accelerate growth and efficiency powered by our [indiscernible] platform and the most innovative products in our history. We're just beginning to tap the potential in large and growing markets such as credit analytics, fraud, marketing and trusted call solutions. And we've also reinvigorated our consumer business.
We see growth upside in each of these businesses because of recent product innovation and our expanded go-to-market adverts. And this is in addition to any benefit from normalization in U.S. mortgage as well as India returning to its typical growth algorithm. Our industry-leading growth and enhanced free cash flow generation will enable us to accelerate capital returns to shareholders. while continuing to invest thoughtfully in innovation and expansion. So we plan to share more about our technology transformation, product innovations and accelerating commercial momentum as well as updating our medium-term financial framework at an Investor Day that we will host in early 2026.
And so with that, let me turn it back to Greg.
That concludes our prepared remarks. For the Q&A, we ask that each ask only 1 question so we can include more participants. Operator, we can begin the Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.
2. Question Answer
I appreciate the left side of Slide 4. This is the slide that breaks down the growth drivers by bar and colored bars in U.S. market. I particularly wanted to ask how much of the U.S. market growth here on Slide 4 is coming from FICO pricing pass-through. And I'm just assuming that is on the green bar of pricing, you correct me if I'm wrong, and while you're looking at the green bars, if you could just comment on the other green bars, the volume growth, that's credit volume growth and the noncredit growth green bars, do you think TransUnion is growing with market or gaining share relative to end market activity?
Andrew, this is Todd. I'll take that question. So as it pertains to pricing, when we look at that 5%, I would say, good portion of that relates to the mortgage pricing. But there still is pricing that TransUnion does take, and we do have a pretty robust process to have price increases on an annual basis. But say the majority of that is primarily related to mortgage. If we look at the other green bars, the volumes in particular, do speak to the growth that we have been experiencing within credit. So we articulated that, talk specifically about within financial services, excluding mortgage, saw some really good growth in consumer lending. Credit card and banking also was up a little bit and auto has kind of held its own. Other than that, like we are seeing good volume growth outside within the emerging verticals as well. If you look at noncredit growth, think of that as our trusted call solution capabilities. Think of that as marketing as well as fraud. And in particular, in the third quarter, we saw very strong growth continue in trusted call solutions. And encouragingly, marketing post a very good solid quarter. And you can see that when you look through to the Emerging Vertical overall growth rate at 7.5%.
Just [indiscernible] on to that, too. One last thing is that the -- I just talked about the volumes in that first bar, but the bar clearly has wins in there as well, too. So I'd be remiss to not recognize the terrific work that our sales team has done and continuing to build our pipeline, convert to bookings and ultimately, enjoy the revenue recognition that you're seeing here.
Yes. And look, if I can add my [indiscernible] Andrew. Obviously, to compare our results to the market, you got to do some slicing and dicing for noncomparable lines of businesses and such between the different players. When we isolate it down to financial services performance, we think we're materially outgrowing the market. A lot of it is due to our new innovation. The FactorTrust score has really reinvigorated our growth across consumer lending, and so yes, we are gaining share. And when you adjust for mortgage, which is a bit of a content between the several bureaus, our growth rate is more than double that of what we see elsewhere in the market.
The next question is from Jeff Meuler of Baird.
So really nice quarter. They've been good for a while now. I want to ask about the pace of investment. There was a nice EBITDA to go along with really good revenue growth, but the flow-through on the revenue upside was lower than it sometimes is on big revenue beat, especially when you're at 11% underlying growth. my question, are you incrementally, I guess, reinvesting into strength? And if it's incremental investment, what is it in? Like is it some of the AI initiatives ahead of productivity and revenue benefit? Or what is it? And any framework, updated framework you can give on how to think about margins beyond [indiscernible]
Yes. Well, listen, for sure, Andrew, I think you characterized it -- sorry, Jeff, apologies. I think you characterized it right that we are accelerating investments given the financial strength that we're delivering in 2025. And I mean just pulling back the frame a little bit, we're very happy with how we're performing, not just in the quarter, but how we're set up to perform in '25 and really over the past couple of years. We're talking very high single-digit organic compounding growth. We've got margin expansion. We've got low double-digit EPS growth when you make sensible adjustments to the numbers. And we're highly confident that we're going to deliver on all of these metrics, including our 36% margin guide. I would also point out that our guide for the remainder of the year, the fourth quarter and the full year maintains our prudent conservatism, which I think you guys know means if conditions persist as we have experienced them in the quarter and for most of the year, we would expect to outperform the high end of this guidance. So in terms of the fall through, look, the strong outperformance has given us a chance to continue our product innovation to invest in AI areas like I highlighted. We had a slide on that in the deck, and I talked about how where AI is really permeating much of our product and some of our new feature functionality for using our new analytics platform. But additionally, we're growing our go-to-market effort across all of our new product lines because we want to make sure that we can continue to compound the top line at this level going forward. So hopefully, that gives you what you need.
I think I heard you talk about '26, Andrew. So let me kind of -- sorry, Jeff, I call you Andrew now too. 2026 as far as how we're thinking about margins, I think our expectations are for what we would characterize to be a solid expansion in '26. So if conditions stay the way that they are revenue growth, plus the remaining savings from our transformation program will allow us to achieve that solid margin expansion while also allowing us to invest back in the business. So just like what Chris just talked through, so that's an important point. Also, we're committed -- just to reiterate a point we made in our prepared remarks to stop the transformation program adjustments. So that will end at the end of 2025. I think it's important to call out here that when we announced that program in November of 2023, we called for that spend to be between $355 million and $375 million. We've managed to that budget, and we've hit our deliverables. So that's been a big focus for us internally. So really proud of what the team has been able to accomplish there. The other part, when we think about 2026, not forget that we're also planning to reduce our capital expenditures down from about 8% to 6% of revenues. So the margin expansion plus the CapEx coming down to 6% nets us to a 90%-plus free cash flow conversion, which we've had our eyes on since the beginning of this transformation program.
The next question is from Faiza Alwy of Deutsche Bank.
I wanted to ask about the really strong growth you had in Emerging Verticals. And I'm curious how do you think about the sustainability of that growth? I know you're still guiding to mid-single digits the year. But was there anything sort of onetime related? And maybe if you can remind us around how much of the business has been related and what you're seeing from a new business perspective here?
Yes. Thanks for the question. And look, there's nothing anomalous in the third quarter results for emerging verticals. There's nothing that is onetime or that you need to make an adjustment for. Obviously, it's been a little bit bumpy in the past couple of years as we've been raising our growth rate and emerging from low single to now high single digits. We've got a stable foundation of revenue performance across almost all the vertical components of emerging. We had to get through some volatility in the tenant employment because of changes and the like. And the only component, I think, that is not performing right now is public sector, which is relatively small for us, but we used to be able to count on it for low double-digit growth. Dodge kind of interrupted that. shutdown is probably not going to help. But there's no reason in the intermediate future with stability that our solutions don't start growing at low double digits again. Now with that said, what's driving the improvements in the growth are, first, insurance. Insurance has been a solid double-digit organic grower for the past couple of years. We're doing exceptionally well there. We've got terrific products, particularly our driver's risk solutions. And we estimate now with current policy levels that we touch 50% of all policies that are being underwritten in the U.S. So it's a fantastic and growthful position that will continue. We've also really grown well in our trusted call in our communication solutions. That's, again, a double-digit grower. There's a lot of addressable market ahead of us. There's a lot of opportunity to expand those solutions internationally. And marketing has been reinvigorated. Marketing has been a target for tremendous reinvestment over these past couple of years. We launched our true audience marketing solution. It's now -- we've gone from just dozens and dozens of point solutions into an integrated end-to-end workflow solutions for marketers. And our Audience data, our onboarding revenues and most importantly, our core identity resolution, which really leads the market are performing exceptionally well. Fraud's contributing investigative solutions, all of them are showing improved revenue performance. So our goal is to get this number up and to really take advantage of some very large and fast-growing markets.
The next question is from Toni Kaplan of Morgan Stanley.
Chris, thanks for going through your AI solutions in the prepared remarks. I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about your proprietary data and particularly how you're positioned in the marketing business, but also across other parts of the business. I think you did a great job, but I just wanted to hear more specifics on that.
Yes. Well, thanks for the question. And obviously, AI concerns have permeated the info services space over the past couple of months, and there's been a lot of thought about who's positioned to win and who might be vulnerable. And as I articulated, in the main deck. I mean we feel like TransUnion in the bureaus overall are really positioned to be beneficiaries of AI because of the breadth and the proprietary nature of the data, the broad contributory network and all of the levels of regulation around this information. you simply can't go out and crawl the web and get all of this credit information and then credential all of the customers who consume it and then ensure that those customers are only using it in [ regulatorily ] approved ways. That can't happen, right? So we've got this proprietary defensible foundation of information. If you look at the marketing space, I mean, we are gathering information in marketing and fraud from literally tens of thousands of different touch points. Many of them are not publicly accessible. And that information, while it's not regulated by the Fair Credit Reporting Act, it is regulated by the driver's Privacy Protection Act by GLB regulations overall. Again, there are regulatory hurdles or moats, protections around this data. And then our solutions not only take that foundation of data, but they combine all of the exhaust we get from providing marketing, in particular, audience activation and measurement services to the space, and they incorporate that back into the data foundation. So there's a bit of a network effect that enriches our marketing data and our fraud data that makes it hugely defensible. Now as we build AI on top of that foundation, as we move from advanced machine learning to more AI and generative techniques, it gives us an incremental growth opportunity because, look, the analytics and the insights that consumers drive from our data that leads them to take actions. A lot of those actions are embedded in software applications upstream decisioning and other workflow applications Increasingly, the AI agents that we're going to build are going to erode the value of the upstream software applications. And so over time, our business and as you look across our industry, we are going to evolve into integrated workflow platforms driven by proprietary data and analytics. So we strongly believe that AI represents a massive growth unlock for the business and it's just going to take some time for the market to understand this and then recognize it.
The next question is from Manav Patnaik of Barclays.
Chris, I just want to follow up on that last statement you made. I think, yes, the market will take some time to appreciate it. But is it also because it's going to take you guys sometimes to actually show that benefit in the revenue line item? And then maybe to add, just on the cost side, does that help? When can we start seeing that help your margin flow through?
Yes. Look, fair question, Manav. I mean, look, we've raised our guidance for the fourth quarter, but we didn't do it based on anticipated new AI revenues, right? And so if your perspective is the next quarter, it's going to take a little bit of time. In the intermediate term, you're going to start to see increases in wins and retentions and pricing power increases and absolute new categories of revenue developed quarter-by-quarter as we begin to utilize AI across the product suite. The other thing I would say is, look, internally, we're using AI to automate a lot of our customer service operations and our dispute resolution operations. We have thousands and thousands of people that service consumers around the world who have questions or concerns about their credit or the scores being calculated based on it. We can do a better job servicing those consumers with AI-enriched processes, and we're investing a lot to make that happen. And so I think that's going to allow us to continually improve service at much greater productivity over time that will be a net positive to our margins going forward.
Next question is from Ashish Sabadra of RBC Capital Markets.
Congrats on such solid results. I just wanted to ask a few questions on mortgage, questions that we're getting a lot from investors. First 1 was just around mortgage. Is there opportunity for you to continue to raise prices on your data file even in a FICO direct license model? Second is just some concerns around B2B. Have you heard anything on that front? And third would be just on the trigger marketing regulation. Could that have any impact to your revenues going forward?
Ashish, could you -- I didn't hear your -- the second component of your question. The first is the change -- the competition and the changes in the distribution model and go-forward pricing power. And the third is about triggers. What was the second...
Is the [indiscernible]? Is there any potential risk there?
Look, we've got our mortgage team at the Mortgage Bankers Association meeting, which has been going on Sunday. We've had a ton of client interactions. All 3 bureaus have had their representatives on stage talking about their new integrated mortgage offerings to counter this latest and very aggressive price increase by FICO. I think you have to just stop for a second and realize that 4 years ago, the FICO score cost I think it was $0.62. Today, we're talking $10. And so resellers and lenders are really frustrated by the aggressive price increases that have been put through and put through on the eve of competition for the first time in 30 years in score pricing. Now what we have put forward is a superior score in the Vantage 4.0 that is materially discounted against the incumbent score. It's a better score because it leverages trended data. It's going to allow us to score 30 million-plus consumers that were previously unscorable, meaning that they couldn't qualify for a GSE mortgage because we were using a score that was point in time data and not trended data and trended data has been the standard for a decade in the mortgage industry. right? So there's been a real lack of innovation in that regard. So we're putting forth the score. It will allow us to unlock the power of our trended data and alternative data we estimate 5 million to 6 million more Americans will qualify for GSE-sponsored mortgages going forward. And there is value there that I think TransUnion and the other bureaus will be able to capture while still saving the industry an enormous amount of cost, right? And so the industry is looking for this opportunity. Now look, for 30 years, the industry has not had choice. And so much of it is calibrated to the FICO classic score. But the industry is hungering for change. They want greater financial inclusion because that means more customers for them to make loans to the GSEs care about financial inclusion, and they also care about safety and soundness. And for 10 years, they've insisted upon trended data from the bureaus because they know it works better, right? So now the stars are aligning to really support what I think will be a material share shift over time. Yes, it's going to take some time to warm up the engine. But look, we have already helped a number of clients move off of the FICO score. Synchrony moved to Vantage score for underwriting their card portfolios some years ago. They wrote a white paper on how to do it. They've had kitchens on how to do it. They securitize those mortgages. Community financial institutions have been under the vice of FICO price increases. They hold a lot of their mortgages on their books. We have been converting many of them over to the Vantage 4 and trended data for years, okay? So it's not like this can't happen. I think the industry is awakening to the opportunity I think the entire EV industry is going to start experimenting with this. And I think over time, you're going to see material share shift to Vantage because it works better and it unlocks trended data and the industry is set up with the price increases. So that's the first point. Now triggers, we've essentially been out of the triggers business for years, right? And so we're not impacted by the changes in regulation or legislation. And look, in terms of the tri-merge, the tri-merge is an important part of the safety and the security of the mortgage lending system in the U.S. We have proven it out empirically neutral third parties like S&P have analyzed this. And what they've observed is that in recent years, the 3 bureau files have started to diverge in terms of their data content. This era of accelerating alternative data on the credit files is just going to lead to further divergence. If you don't pull 3 files, the chances are you're not going to qualify somebody who could be qualified. It's a misrevenue opportunity. You're also not going to assess the risk as well as you will if you pull 3 files. And you may end up charging people more on a very large and long-duration credit and that higher rate is going to come down to a massive increase in the interest that a consumer pays. So for a very small cost in the context of this larger transaction, you get greater financial inclusion, greater profitability and greater safety and soundness. So for all of those reasons, which the FHFA understands very well and there's an enormous amount of support on Capitol Hill for the Tri-Merge I don't see any changes coming on that horizon.
The next question is from Scott Wurtzel of Wolfe Research.
Just wanted to go back to maybe some of the trends you're seeing on the fintech lender side. It sounds like during the quarter itself, trends were pretty stable. But just given some of the noise that we've heard around subprime credit anything. Just wondering if you can maybe talk about some of the trends you've seen since kind of the end of September, early October on that side of the business.
Well, look, let me pull back to [indiscernible] and just talk about the overall market conditions that we're seeing in the health of the market. I mean look, the broader context is coming out of COVID and coming out of this year of really cheap money in the U.S. In '22 and '23, we had to deal with declining volumes. In '24 and '25, we've largely had stable but muted lending levels. All lending categories are below the long-term trend. Mortgage lending is dramatically below the long-term trends. It's back to mid-90s levels. Now I think we're in a period of stable to improving loan volumes. I mean if you look at our results, 11% organic growth and with 13% in U.S. markets alone reflects really good volumes. Now we're not back to the long-term trend lines. But when I look at my daily volume reports across all categories, I see material volume increases. Part of that is because of the soundness of the market. So it's macro driven, but a lot of it is based on our commercial success, right? And the wins that we're racking up in market and the dramatic performance improvements in our subprime oriented credit scores, right, the FactorTrust scores. So we're doing really well there, and we see a market that's got decent GDP growth, lowering interest rates, a lot of stability in delinquencies. We have looked really hard here at the nominal debt levels of consumers of all risk tiers. I'm looking at their current levels back to 2019. You see in the media a lot of concern about the nominal increases in consumer leverage. But when you adjust that for inflation and you adjust it for the substantial wage gains, particularly that lower income Americans have enjoyed over this period. Their net indebtedness in '25 looks pretty much the same as 2019. And I think the banks confirm this. I mean we just had a round of bank reporting. All the results for the industry are quite solid, Lending volumes are increasing. And practically, no one took any increase in their bad debt reserves, right? So the industry feels good about the condition of the market. and the industry feels good about the condition and lendability of the consumer. Now at the lower end in subprime, I mean, look, go back over the last 8 quarters, as I to do a media search for you. In every quarter, somebody is talking about instability and subprime, rising delinquencies, et cetera, et cetera. And despite those concerns, some of which are legitimate we have managed to post market-leading growth in every quarter, right? So clearly, our foundation for growth is very broad-based across all risk per in the U.S. The portfolio is really representative of the broader lending ecosystem. It's not skewed towards subprime. If it were, we wouldn't have been able to outgrow the market for the past 8 quarters. So those are my thoughts on that topic.
The next question comes from Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners.
My understanding is out there, the VantageScore has about 5% market share in autos, credit cards, personal loans, et cetera. Obviously, on the nonconforming part of mortgages, I believe it's basically negligible kind of nonconforming piece. When we think about the pricing you guys have come out with for Vantage score for mortgages of $4 you just announced recently [indiscernible] obviously came out at $4.50 a price. And then you talk about it versus $10 per FICO score, that is a huge cost savings. I can see an argument there. But obviously, FICO has a second model out there, right, a brand-new one at $5, but then it's a $33 fee on the back end if the mortgage closes. All this stuff, of course, gets paid by the consumer. So if I'm the lender -- if I'm the lender here, I'm going to be much more likely to go with the dollar option for FICO and then the $33 on the back end that the consumer pays for all that correct, on the lender. So I'm -- in my mind, I'm comparing your $4 number to $5. Am I wrong on that? And also if you could comment on the 5% market share.
Yes. Well, look, the market share is low in these other areas. But I think that's derived in large part to the monopoly positioning in mortgage. And of course, for FICO, the profitability of the business has driven disproportionately out of mortgage where the pricing is high. And I think now that all of these resellers are being forced to do the analytics behind the Vantage score and conversion, it just creates a very ripe opportunity for share shift. And I think that's how it's going to play out over time. Now in terms of the success-based model or the booked fee model, and in terms of shifting the calculation of the FICO score via the direct approach. I think that the resellers and the lenders, but particularly the resellers are just starting to understand the complication with administering the model. It comes with a blizzard of complexity, right? The first is just the accuracy of the calculations themselves. As we've seen in the industry, sometimes there are errors. And when there are errors, the question will be, who's responsible for that era. Secondly, today, none of the resellers are agents of the bureau. That's a status that's very difficult to attain. You have to have considerable cybersecurity investments in scrutiny. And they've simply been consumers of the data and the output of the score calculation that we provide and then they pass the 3 of them on to the GSEs or to their lending customers, right? Well, now they're going to have to increase their cybersecurity investments. They're going to have to increase their personnel investments to support potentially consumer dispute inquiries and the legal and the regulatory liability that they're going to have to assume is considerable. I don't think that any of that was really understood at the initial press release. But based on the feedback that we're getting from the MBA, the resellers are now understanding that, and they really -- they don't really know how to handle that because it is really quite complicated and it is fraught with a number of challenges that can have significant financial consequences.
From your perspective, in 2026, are you viewing that the change that FICO have done for their pricing in the marketplace? From your perspective, given the change of your own pricing, et cetera, that you will be -- it will be neutral to you. In essence, you're raising the price on your credit file for mortgages basically to make up the lost FICO revenue and profit. Am I thinking about that correctly?
Look, yes, look, the measures that we have taken around our mortgage offerings in total actually hold the cost of the credit and the services that we provide related to credit constant between the years, right? And so we expect that we're going to protect our revenue and our profits regardless of who's calculating the FICO score and regardless of which model they choose, right? And then from there, I think we will have revenue growth and margin enhancement as we start to take share from FICO Classic.
So again, I'm sorry, in '26 then you don't think from an EBITDA basis, the changes that FICO put in place here are going to change your outlook for next year?
Correct.
The last question will be Andrew Nicholas from William Blair.
This is Tom Roesch on for Andrew Nicholas. I wanted to touch on the trajectory of India growth. I think fourth quarter, you're expecting to exit the year in the high teens growth. I was curious when you -- what you're thinking about like getting back to that rate, could you see it happening next year? And then relatedly, it sounds like it's tarmac was on the commercial lending part of the business. So I was wondering how consumer lending within India track relative to your expectations in the quarter?
Well, look, the India situation is very fluid because we're in the middle geopolitically of intense negotiations around tariff and trade terms. And we were very much hitting back toward high teens growth in India in the fourth quarter when things went a little bit sour in the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on all imports coming from India. Now the challenge there is that a good portion of the economy, about 30% is driven by micro, small and medium businesses, very entrepreneurially driven that are also export dependent. And so with this additional cloud hanging over, the banks have slowed lending to that segment, which has flowed through in the form of lower volumes to our leading bureau there, civil, right? Now again, things change pretty quickly in these trade negotiations could be here a month from now with stability restored and lending volumes increasing. But what we do know is that India continues to be an awesome market. They've got 7% GDP growth, then we've got inflation down to 3%. They have a central bank, the RBI, that is growth-oriented, that has been enabling fintechs that support unsecured retail lenders to resume their operations, which was driving more volume. They've been cutting rates. So all the macro factors are aligning for a resumption of terrific growth coming out of one of the largest and most attractive markets on the planet. But we have hit a speed bump here with the 50% tariff, and we're just going to have to wait until that gets resolved. I'm confident it will resolve. I think the U.S. and India are natural partners, and there's a tremendous amount of trade that we'll do. But things do get heated in the course of negotiations. And so that has delayed the full recovery of that market a bit. I'd say the other bright spot in India is that, I mean, look, we have 40% exposure to consumer credit. We're growing in all of our other categories. And we recently launched our analytics platform, TruIQ analytics in India with a lot of interest from major bank clients and I think it's a whole new vector of growth that will both help us defend the massive market share that we have and then generate new revenues additionally.
Tom, I'm going to add on to that. Hopefully, what you're hearing from Chris is the -- just the conviction that we have in the India business and the runway that's ahead for us. You got to think about this longer term, but when we take a step back and we think about just the overall portfolio of TransUnion in the businesses that we have and how diverse they are. I just want to call out, while India is very important to us. it does represent only about 7% of our total revenues. And what's important to talk about that balance of the portfolio is if you go back to '22 and '23, when the more developed markets of the U.S., the U.K. and Canada were in a slowdown because of high inflation and rising interest rates, India business was growing in the 30% range. So right now, there's some things going on in their market that Chris just articulated. So that revenue is down to 5%. But if you look across the portfolio, now markets like Canada and the U.K. are leading the international growth one in the third quarter. And despite all of this noise with India, we continue to deliver high single-digit revenue growth with India clearly below trend and our long-term aspirations.
Yes. In addition to that, I mean, as I outlined in my concluding remarks, there's a number of places in the portfolio where we think we will boost our growth rate based on all the product innovation and based on expanded go-to-market investments. And I would put marketing, fraud, communications analytics across credit marketing and fraud. I think investigative solutions has got a lot of use. Of course, India's upside, of course, mortgage is upside. And let's not forget the consumer business. We've made massive investments to remediate the consumer business. They're starting to bear fruit. Our intermediate goal is to get that back to a mid-single-digit compounder I feel like we're on the way there. So I mean if you like 11% in market-leading growth, understand that it's on a stable consumer lending foundation today, and there's upside from that, given all of the product innovations in all of those different market areas that I just outlined. And I think, again, it's important to emphasize that this is a global portfolio. At any point in time, we're going to have strength and weaknesses across it. And if you look at the consistency of our results over the past 5 years, the worst we've ever done is grow in line with market. But for the most part, we outperform the growth rates in the market. So I think this portfolio is much less risky and far more durable than is currently understood.
All right. Thanks, Chris. Todd. I think that's a good place to end. Thanks for all your questions today, and have a great rest of your day.
Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
TransUnion — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
TransUnion — Barclays 23rd Annual Global Financial Services Conference
1. Question Answer
All right. Good morning, everybody. Let's get this started. Thank you for being here. My name is Manav Patnaik. I'm Barclays' business and information services analyst, for those of you who don't know me. I'm glad to kick off day 2 here on our side of the universe with TransUnion, and we have Chris Cartwright, the CEO. So Chris, thank you for being here.
Thanks, Manav.
Maybe, Chris, just from your vantage point, since you have a unique kind of insight into the end markets and so forth, just a broader macro question. A lot of focus on rate cuts and jobs data and employment. But just from your vantage point, like what are you seeing? Let's start with the U.S. for now.
Sure. Well, I'd say for about 18 months now, we have characterized the macro conditions as still muted, but stable, muted because in the 4 subcomponents of financial services, the volumes and say mortgage and auto and card and consumer lending are below their historic trends, right, particularly in mortgage, as we know, which is still like 1995 levels. The volumes are muted, but there has been volume stability at these lower levels. And I would say this year, we had a little bit of a bump up, right? It's nice to see after the volatility of '22 and '23. In this environment, we've been able to return to high-single-digit growth, grew at about 8.5% in the first half of the year. And so far, the trends that we're seeing volume-wise in the third quarter are very consistent with that and consistent with what we need to achieve and hopefully surpass our guidance.
Okay. And when you think about over, let's just say, the next 12 months, rate cuts in isolation are obviously good for lending and for your business. But how do you balance -- what else do you look at in terms of projecting or thinking about what volumes might act like for you guys?
Yes. So what I'd say is, look, the banks reported a week or 2 ago. And those are all strong reports. And for the first time in a while, we're seeing personal loan volume growth, which is great, and delinquencies are at reasonable levels across all the categories. The concern now is that the labor market has deteriorated somewhat and that certain households will be distressed and will become less lendable. If that's accompanied by rate cuts, they're going to stabilize that their GDP growth, that's a terrific and probably net positive counterbalance to a certain level of unemployment increase. And the rate cuts help, not just in mortgage to spawn some refinancing activity but really across the board. Auto loans can be refinanced. There's still a considerable amount of revolving credit debt out there. And within the consumer lending category, which is back strongly this year, fintechs are well supplied to execute loan consolidation programs. So I think the rate cuts will be further net positive to market volumes.
Got it. We focused on volumes, obviously, thus far, but you guys have been outgrowing volumes for quite some time over the years. So maybe just by category, start with -- maybe since you mentioned fintech, let's just start there. Like, can you just remind us of the -- you guys have had the lead with the fintechs for a while. Like what is the value proposition there? And how do you grow above just their lending volumes?
Yes. So fintech is just another phase kind of a web enablement of consumer lending in the U.S. That's been part of personal lending for decades and most of those consumer lenders are not depositories, right? They're borrowing from the capital markets. Now the fintechs emerged a decade ago or more and in a really low rate environment, and they achieved nice market share amongst consumers, and they probably grew a lot faster than they would otherwise have grown because of a really low rate environment. But when rates were increased so much in 2022, they fell off quite aggressively. So it was a pretty volatile period that I think kind of taints the consumer space as being more volatile than it actually is historically, right?
Now what you're seeing is that these lenders have survived a very difficult period. Their credit delinquencies have held up quite well and their capital has flowed back to the space that's allowed them to start lending pretty aggressively again. So we have a lot of market share there. We were a first mover in providing data and analytics to build their initial lending models and have supported them well along the way. We've only increased our market share. But now we're starting to penetrate that further with phone solutions with data enrichment and marketing flavored solutions. And so there's just more products being sold into the consumer lending/fintech category because we now have a broader portfolio of products.
Got it. And then similarly, if you touch on auto, for example, you guys have grown well above the volumes there. So what are some of the trends you're seeing in auto? And is that sustainable?
Yes. Well, the underlying trends in auto, there was, as we all know, some pull forward because of fears over the tariffs and that increased volumes in the early part of the second quarter. By June, that had kind of run its course. Now our performance has been above the volume dimension there because, one, we've been able to put through some price increases on our own data and then third-party score providers have also put price increases through there. In addition to that, though, we've just broadened the mix of products that we're selling in there. So they're using a lot of trusted call solutions. And again, some of our data enrichment solutions. We have further penetrated the portfolio management component of the business, not just the origination volumes. And so again, having more products and taking them to these different segments is benefiting our growth rate.
Got it. Maybe on mortgage as well, just to touch on that. I mean, I think there, there's been a lot more dynamic of the third-party scoring and the pricing and so forth. And maybe I'll come back to that question later, but just your thoughts on -- we've all been waiting for this mortgage market recovery. At some point, it's taken a whole lot longer. Do you think a rate cut is enough? Or what else do you see in the data that you guys track closely that's required for a more sustained recovery?
Well, there's still not a lot of refinance activity happening at this rate level. If we can get a rate cut or 2, I think you'll start to get to a threshold where it will be attractive to refinance some mortgages. I think there are 8.3 million mortgages in the U.S. that are 6% and above. And so if you can get 30-year fixed rates down, in the high 5s or the mid-5s, there becomes a nice refi opportunity. And if it's a slow decline in rates over a period of time, lenders are going to get multiple bites at the refinancing apple, so to speak, if that's where things go. Of course, we're also going to have to just to see what happens on the inflation front. Inflation is still plugging along with a 3 in it and it would be better if it were a little bit lower, but it may not transition to lower levels until after a year of full tariff program implementation, right?
So that's another variable there. But I will say this, toward the end of the Biden administration, the 10-year fell to like 3.7%, 3.8%. And I don't know exactly what the mortgage rates were in the market, but we did see a turn on in the refinance cycle at that level. Now we're not that far. We're 0.5 point or so away from those levels. And if we get to that again, I would expect a perk up in foreclosure volumes. And it's a -- I'm sorry, refinancing volumes, not foreclosure volumes.
And just to clarify, in refinancing versus purchase like in terms of inquiries, a refi is pretty much one for one-- I mean not as many pools for origination, right, in terms of backing volumes and inquiries for you guys?
Yes. That is correct. Although you know from some earlier discussions that we were in together, that there are just a lot of dynamics in play. A lot of changes in the mortgage marketplace that are impacting the volume of inquiries relative to the volume of loans originated. And as credit pulls in the qualification process have gone from hard inquiries to soft inquiries, it's encouraging consumers to shop more. And that's an offset, I think, to some of the efficiencies that you're seeing in the GSE early access program where you no longer have to pull 3 bureau reports on qualification.
And this whole pre-qual dynamic, obviously, over the last year has really, I think, taken a hold. But why now? Like why weren't people doing pre-quals before? And then in terms of your comment on share dynamics, like is it really just going to 1 bureau or is it sometimes 2, some people still pulling 3 in the pre-qual process?
Well, the early access program in this pre-qual reform where you don't have to pull 3 bureaus is a relatively new development, right? So it's probably been a couple of years, maybe 18 months getting implemented across the market. So that's a relatively new dynamic that the market's digesting.
Okay. Maybe sticking to mortgage. There's been a lot of noise from the FHFA, the new leadership there. It sounds like the [ 3D ] is still staying as of today. But just your thoughts on the lenders' choice. You jointly, I guess, own the VantageScore with the other 2 bureaus. Just any change in strategy so far? Or how long do you think all the stakes?
Look, I think it's going to take some time. The mortgage industry is complex. The origination and ownership process has a lot of different players, they each play a role and sometimes they have competing incentives across the spectrum of origination to ultimate ownership. Director Pulte has said that the Tri-Merge is going to stay. I think that is a solid decision because it's almost axiomatic in data and analytics that more relevant data produces a better outcome. And there are still differences in the bureau files. S&P did an independent analysis of that, that showed just the shift from a 3 bureau pool to a 2 bureau pool resulted in millions of Americans not qualifying for a mortgage or qualifying for a mortgage, but at a higher rate. And given that these are long-duration credits, a relatively small difference in interest rates adds up to significant increased interest expense over the mortgage.
In terms of what score is used upfront for qualifying a consumer for potentially getting a mortgage, I think the market is long overdue for a shift from a score that's based on a point-in-time credit information to trended credit information. So Vantage 4.0 is based on trended credit information and the lending market in the U.S. and in many developed markets around the world for a decade now has been pivoting to trended credit information because it's more predictive and the lenders pay price premiums for it around the world because it is more predictive. And in fact, the GSEs for probably 8 years now have required trended credit data in the U.S. for their own underwriting processes.
So there's just no doubt that more data points around credit and even rental payment information and other alternative data sets maximizes the addressable market of potential mortgages, which is good for originators, but also improves safety and soundness throughout the process. So it's good that both the VantageScore and the FICO 10 T score, which is also based on trended data also includes rental information are now being pushed in the market, right? Because the FICO classic is 20 years old, and it's a point-in-time data. This is going to broaden the market and improve safety and soundness, whether it's FICO or Vantage. And then the time to transition and the ultimate pricing and all that, which I know is on everybody's mind, it's complicated. These things are going to take time. Some of the rules are going to have to be further clarified. I think pilots will be run in parallel for understanding, but net-net, I think it's good that qualification move to a more predictive data set. And I think competition is good because it's just going to fuel further innovation on multiple levels.
And just thinking ahead a little bit, like do you imagine -- it's been a 1 score market for so long. Do you imagine this could evolve into becoming like the rating agencies where you get 2 or 3 ratings per bond. Is that what the -- how you would think this can play out?
Yes. Look, there's definitely a spectrum of potential outcomes, right? What's not going to happen is that we're going to stay with the same score that we've had for the past 20 years. There's going to be a migration. And it's going to be a net good for all market participants, including data and score providers. And I don't know that there will be 1 uniform practice, right? Some lenders may want to pull multiple scores. They may want to pull multiple scores, particularly on mortgages that they want to hold on their own balance sheets. It could be that the capital markets come to value multiple score pools because they feel like the risk diligence that's being done upon origination is greater, and it will give them greater confidence in the bonds. But look, lots of different things, a lot of variables in play that are going to have to be worked out, right? And I don't know that anybody has 20/20 line of sight to what it looks like 5 years from now.
Got it. Fair enough. Let's shift gears a bit to India. Last week, at our Credit Bureau Day, we had the opportunity to talk to Todd Skinner. So he gave us a lot of the good background on how well it's going, how is the future, and we can talk about that a bit, too. But a lot of questions we've gotten around you had expected a reacceleration in India towards the back half of the year. 50% tariff on the country from the U.S.? Like how does that change the outlook? Does it change the outlook?
Yes. Well, look, we're going to have to see, right, because India was recovering. We went from flat in India in the second quarter or maybe it was 1%, excuse me, guys, I'm a little -- I have a little cold, to 8% growth in the second quarter, and we're doing a pretty good job of predicting the glide path toward the exit that you described. But look, having major powers fighting over the terms of trade is not a good thing, right? It creates uncertainty around trade, it could have an impact on the Indian economy because I think 20% of the GDP is exported to the U.S. We don't know how long this is going to persist. Is this a permanent state of affairs or is this negotiating leverage that's going to get resolved at some point. And it's all happening kind of real time, right? It's only been 3 weeks since this dispute kind of surfaced. So we're going to have to see.
Okay. And let's just put the last, let's call it, 6 to 7 quarters aside for a second. What are the main growth drivers in India? Like why is mid-20s the right growth rate there?
Yes. And look, I think that's the right question to ask because whether we fully recover by the end of this year or by the middle of next year is a far secondary concern to just the attractiveness of the market. So first, rapidly growing population and an enormous number of consumers that have become lendable through both their economic growth but also through the availability of a score and data. So we set up the first bureau in India 25 years ago. It took 5 years to get enough data and enough track record for lenders to be confident in the score. So they've had it for 20 years. And I can tell you, having spent a good deal of time in country this summer in meeting with probably 20 different bank CEOs at our conference, they all talk about when they were coming up in their careers, how difficult it was to make personal loans because there wasn't data transparency, and there wasn't trust.
And so they used rules of thumb that really underperformed the potential of the marketplace. But the combination of economic growth and data has brought hundreds of millions of Indians into the mainstream lending market. I think there's the potential for dramatic ongoing growth in financial inclusion as India's GDP continues to clip along at 6%, 7%, 8% when it's -- when it's ginning fully and consumers benefit from that, plus financial products are underpenetrated in that marketplace. There's rapid digitization in the Indian marketplace. And the RBI is very progressive in looking for how to use other data sets that they've accumulated at the federal level to include more consumers in the mainstream lending economy.
So India is tied together by the universal payment infrastructure, the UPI now. They can do cash flow-based types of lending there. They've got a wealth registry, they've got a real property registry. And again, they realize that there's a real symbiosis between providing data to improve financial inclusion and then making loans, which ultimately result in GDP growth, and they're highly focused on that. And that's just in the personal finance space before you get into the growth potential in our commercial lending business, marketing, fraud, analytics, direct-to-consumer products, all of which we're bringing to market through our global replatforming.
Got it. That makes sense. And maybe 1 last one in India. Like the experience in the Equifax is there, even CRIF is in there, but none of them are nearly the size of you or the growth rates you're showing. Was it just the first mover advantage? What is it about India, unlike the U.S. where the 3 of you are pretty equal?
Yes. There's definitely the benefit of a first-mover advantage. When you have high market share as we do in India, and it's north of 70% of consumer loans start with a query into our bureau, we see the preponderance of consumer shopping activity, which influences their credit risk assessment, right? And so therefore, we have a more complete and predictive body of data upon which to build lending models. And because the data produces better predictive outcomes, more people use our data and the more they use our data, the more predictive it becomes. So we've got a flywheel effect in India. That gives us an advantage and has allowed us to maintain share in this low 70% rate despite the best efforts of some quality competitors.
Got it. If you can shift gears a little bit to the data side that you talked about, a lot of questions in our universe broadly around AI and AI risks. So addressing that topic. I think we all appreciate the core credit data is pretty moated proprietary, but maybe can you help us walk through the spectrum of your other businesses in terms of where you see data has also been proprietary, which maybe we don't appreciate. And then the second part to that is there's a lot of questions around software being easily disrupted. So the point is all the analytics and software that you provide around your data, like how do you protect that moat?
Yes. I would parse a difference between software, general workflow software and analytics and predictions and the like, if you will, and decisioning software being more toward workflow software. But look, we have an industry contributory data model that has its roots in fraud mitigation, but also became a basis for objective lending and lending outside of local boundaries. That underpins the industry, and it underpins our markets -- all of our markets, we're in 30 globally, but all the bureaus are -- have vast global reach at this point. There are elements on perhaps the marketing side where it's not contributing and it's not as initially differentiated. But because we're in the media planning and measurement space, collecting signal from across the digital infrastructure, the publishing and the streaming infrastructure, we're getting a lot of unique and differentiated signal about how consumers are interacting with advertisements that flow into our database that improve its usefulness and productivity -- predictiveness beyond the base demographics, psychographics and perhaps the behavioral stuff.
The same is true on the fraud side. We operate one of the largest contributory networks on device behavior and device signal globally, right? And again, that's the type of information that's not going to get disrupted by AI because it is more unique and more proprietary. And when you think about the bureaus, I mean, our goal ultimately is to have value-added data that helps better predictions, better decisions. And we've been using AI which is a broad and loosely used term at this point for a long time. Advanced analytics, various flavors of machine learning underpin all of our models in the TU and across the industry for a long time. But as we moved all of our data to a platform, and we have been consuming more and more data sources and we need to ingest and curate and associate them with the right identity in real time. We have applied more AI-infused algorithms to do that. And increasingly, we will build AI agents based on this corpus of data that we have accumulated and organized that will start to action based on the data in a similar way to what workflow software does today. But I think we're in the early stages of that. But I'm sure we're going to talk about our platform, OneTru. And OneTru is kind of fully AI-enabled today, and we're building out the agentic AI portion to execute a lot of the workflows that might previously have been done in orchestration software or decisioning software.
Okay. Two follow-ups from there. So on OneTru all the AI capabilities and stuff you're building out. I guess just a broader question from your seat, like -- is this hype real? How long -- is the hype real? This is the AI hype out there? Is it real from what you're implementing like and when can we see on our side of the creation, the real benefits, whether that shows up in revenue or cost or whatever it is?
Sure. I think AI is real, but also massively hyped. And nobody is better than the tech industry at building momentum around a new generation of technology, if you will. And so there is a degree of hype, if you will, but look, we're already utilizing AI to ingest in associate data. We're organizing our core data sets of credit, marketing, fraud, using the ontology of AI, to get greater semantic meaning out of the data so that we can move from just a straight identity graph to one that incorporates behavioral signals from around the web based on what the clients are doing to increase the power.
But I think it's going to take time before these become meaningful line items in the P&L in either the revenue side, meaning don't look to next quarter, don't really look to next year. But in the coming years, in the intermediate period, these are going to become revenue realities. And I also think on the operations side, I have a lot of employees that focus on repetitive customer service and consumer dispute resolution tasks globally. And we've been moving that type of work onto a common internal operational platform for standardization and scale efficiencies. But now that the data is all there, we can increasingly apply AI for better customer service and better cost leverage.
So it sounds like you're not looking to necessarily reduce your employee footprint, but you can do more with the same. Is that -- that's what we're hearing from other companies, too, so just.
We can definitely do more with the same and I don't know ultimately what the impact is going to be on the employee footprint. I think often what gets lost in these productivity discussions in the corporate world is simply that there's inexorable pressure on costs to do more, right? And depending on the administration under -- depending on the administration and the nature of regulatory pressure we're facing, we'll be making investments in better servicing customers. And now that consumers are so aware of the importance of credit and want to actively engage in the management of their credit and that AI and other types of automation are going to give them new tools and ways to engage and optimize their personal finance, independent of underlying productivity improvements, you might have a lot more labor expansion than you will because we will be applying system standardization, centralization, offshoring and AI to minimize that investment.
Got it. Okay. Maybe this is a good time to then appreciate the OneTru platform. You said it's fully GenAI enabled, et cetera. So just I hand it over to you just to help us imagine the power of this. And if you need to add anything to it? Like is it more building? Or is it -- are you looking for tuck-in M&A deals or something? Just how should we think about that?
Sure. Let's just put M&A outside of the picture for now because I think it clouds it. And look, to a degree, AI clouds it, right? Let's just go back to the basis for a global platform. And look, when I became CEO, I had the benefit of 6 years running the U.S. during most of which I was also trying to orchestrate more product development globally because we recognize that across the 30 markets where we were providing credit risk analytics in some form of marketing and fraud mitigation there was just tremendous similarity in bank needs and insurance needs and telco needs, et cetera, all the different segments that consume.
So you have largely similar needs, highly similar data sets, but all being run on independent tech stacks that were diverging over time because the tech organizations were independent. The equivalent would be if we were a company that produced spreadsheets like an excel spreadsheet, if we allowed every country to build their own spreadsheet, even though they started with some commonality in their DNA, you would be suboptimal from an efficiency standpoint. And also, it would make it extremely difficult to innovate to then diffuse that innovation across all of your markets. So we step back and said, look, it's time to rethink how we deliver our services and to try and do it 1 time in a way that can be configurable and delivered globally. But not just our credit services. We wanted to pull back the lens and say, what is the broader intention of a lender or an insurer.
And we said, look, that intention is to understand the dynamic in their marketplace and identify who they're willing to do business with, who they will make a loan to, who they will underwrite for insurance, et cetera. And then to learn enough about this consumer to effectively go acquire them, whether it's through direct mail or through a pop-up ad on the Internet. So that took us from the credit domain to the marketing domain. And then once you engage that customer from a marketing perspective and that customer came to you to be able to authenticate that is indeed the targeted customer responding to the right offer.
Now that engagement can be e-commerce. It can be like, hey, I saw your ad. I clicked through and here I am. It's really me. Or it could be I picked up the phone and I called you and it's important to then have associated that consumer's phone number with their identity and to be able to validate that the phone is engaged and engaged from a geo location that's familiar, right? So that's why we brought credit, marketing and fraud altogether and integrated the business logic on a single platform that is OneTru on top of this global unified body of data. So that was the thinking, right?
So it took some time for us to build out the platform, which started off with the platform that we acquired from Neustar, where they had a very modern architecture and had done this type of unification, but within the marketing and the fraud realm. We extended it to credit, rebranded it OneTru. So now the platform has all the necessary credit marketing and fraud functionality to allow us to begin migrating our customers in the U.S. to it. The U.S. is probably 78% of our revenue globally. This year, by the end of the year, we'll have migrated the majority of our online and batch credit customers to OneTru that will probably take us another 1.5 quarters to get it completely done, so that will spill in a bit into '26. And then we'll have all of U.S. credit running on OneTru plus U.S. marketing and fraud customers will be in the process of migrating to OneTru.
So we'll have proven out the platform and hardened it and then we'll take that platform and start migrations in Canada, the U.K., in the Philippines on the path to eventually migrating all 30 countries to this common platform. Now once they're on a common platform, there are engineering and tech stack efficiencies. There's product management efficiencies and so we will become structurally more efficient as we migrate this platform around the globe. Some of that will go to ongoing margin enhancements. But some of the savings will go to building bigger and broader selling and support organizations necessary to support new products like marketing and fraud and an analytics layer and analytic sandbox that we'll be introducing in the markets around the world. That's a lot. I'll pause for a second
No, no, no, that make sense. No, I think that's appreciated. But maybe just in the interest of time, let's touch on that capital allocation side of the question, in terms of your priorities there in terms of M&A, maybe just start with, obviously, you're going to be closing the Mexico deal soon which makes sense, but just your priorities on how we should think about capital?
Yes. So a couple of things to be clear on before we get to capital allocation that are all in financial world. The conversion time frame that I outlined, to OneTru for credit in the U.S. We are fully confident that by the end of this year, we're going to achieve all of the dollar savings that we outlined when we announced our restructuring program in the end of Q4 and it's going to be driven part by our technology modernization, but also the reconfiguration of our workforce around our global centers. So we're going to get the savings and then we're going to continue with the platform evolution and migration globally.
Now in terms of capital allocation and just spend, 1 benefit of moving to the platform is we're going to have lower CapEx ongoing. We're committed to lowering our CapEx from high 7s to low 8s down to 6%. And that's what's going to create a persistent savings stream over time. Now M&A, we are still digesting all of the M&A. It's fully integrated and it's been deeply integrated on the OneTru platform, but we haven't fully commercialized it yet. And I think you're starting to see the benefits of the work, marketing sales have grown, there's been a sea change in the level of marketing sales, fraud is fast following. We're selling more data enrichment, more analytic sandboxes, that's all going to become very material in our overall financial profile, which is already high-single digits at this point.
So with that, over time, I'm sure we will acquire our way into new countries. There may be product tuck-ins. I don't foresee the need to do anything transformational, right? And there's just a lot of leverage for us commercially yet to be manifested from all the work that we did in that late '21, '22 portfolio rejiggering phase. And of course, as our free cash flows improved from 50% last year, 70% this year, 90% next year, we're going to buy back more shares, we're going to retire more debt. If we get a break on the interest rate environment, we'll refinance the debt stack, all of which is going to allow us to deliver compounding high-single-digit organic revenue growth and great EPS flow through.
Got it. In the minute that we have left, maybe let's just use Mexico as the last question and just appreciate why these incremental geographies make sense as part of the overall strategy?
Well, Mexico has a nice bureau that's been run for years by the banks. The regulator for years is one of the banks to divest the bureau. We were a 26% owner for 20 years, and we took advantage of the timing to acquire the bureau. But it's a very basic bureau. And there's a tremendous amount of credit innovation, data innovation, trended credit data, alternative credit data, analytic sandboxes that we will bring to Mexico in short order plus the consumer engagement tools are lacking across the Mexican economy, and there's really not mature marketing or fraud mitigation solutions. So we'll replatform under OneTru and suddenly, all of that functional goodness becomes available to the Mexican market.
And last one here. Are there a bunch of other bureaus that aren't owned by the big 3 that would over the next, whatever, 10, 20 years, be something that could change hands?
I definitely think so. Look, all bureaus across the globe, build relationships, look for that opportunity to enter into those marketplaces. And yes, there's quite a few. There are even emerging countries and emerging economies that are licensing Bureau rights out currently. And we're all kind of participating in that kind of global growth because what a lot of these emerging companies see is that -- countries see is that having bureau data and bureaus at the core of the lending economy improves economic growth.
Got it. All right. Well, we're right on time there. So thank you, Chris, and thanks, everyone, for being here.
Thank you. Thanks, Manav.
Thank you.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
TransUnion — Barclays 23rd Annual Global Financial Services Conference
TransUnion — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and welcome to TransUnion's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would like now to turn the conference over to Mr. Greg Bardi, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for attending today. Joining me on the call are Chris Cartwright, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Todd Cello, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
We posted our earnings release and slides to accompany this call on the TransUnion Investor Relations website this morning, and they can also be found in the current report on Form 8-K that we filed this morning. Our earnings release and the accompanying slides include various schedules, which contain more detailed information about revenue, operating expenses and other items, as well as certain non-GAAP disclosures and financial measures along with their corresponding reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures. Today's call will be recorded and a replay will be available on our website. We will also be making statements during this call that are forward-looking. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties.
Actual results could differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements because of factors discussed in today's earnings release, in the comments made during this conference call and in our most recent Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q and other reports and filings with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement. With that, let me turn it over to Chris.
Thanks, Greg. Let me add my welcome and share our agenda for the call this morning. First, I'll provide the highlights of our second quarter 2025 results and an overview of market conditions. Second, I'll discuss progress toward our 2025 strategic priorities, including a spotlight on our fast-growing trusted call solutions business. Finally, Todd will detail our second quarter results and updated 2025 guidance.
In the second quarter, TransUnion exceeded all key financial guidance metrics. For a sixth straight quarter, we delivered high single-digit organic revenue growth, highlighting our strong execution in a stable but still subdued market and the benefits of our accelerating pace of innovation. Revenue grew 9% on an organic constant currency basis, well above our 3% to 5% guidance. Excluding mortgage, our growth of 6.5% also exceeded expectations.
U.S. Markets segment delivered 10% growth in the quarter. Financial services grew 17% and and growth, excluding mortgage accelerated to 11%. Across all lending types, we continue to outperform overall market growth by driving new business wins across our solutions suite. Consumer lending and auto grew double digits [indiscernible] Banking grew mid-single digits. We experienced robust activity from fintech lenders, supported by healthy funding and heightened consumer demand for debt consolidation products.
Mortgage was up 29% compared to flat inquiries, both modestly above expectations. Earlier this month, the FHFA announced it will allow lenders to use VantageScore 4.0 for conforming mortgages and that the tri-merge credit report requirement will remain in effect. We believe these policies will provide choice for lenders and enhance safety and certainty within mortgage markets, benefiting homebuyers, lenders and taxpayers over the long term.
Emerging Verticals grew 5%. And Insurance grew double digits, driven by a gradual recovery in marketing and healthy consumer shopping activity in addition to new wins across our solutions. We also grew across our diversified verticals led by communications and tech, retail and e-commerce. Consumer Interactive grew 2% organically, driven by the successful launch of our freemium solution marking a key step in our turnaround strategy.
International grew 6% on an organic constant currency basis. India's growth accelerated to 8% as anticipated, we experienced a modest pickup in consumer lending and delivered strong growth in our nonconsumer businesses. Within the remainder of the international portfolio, Canada and Africa were standouts, each growing double digits. Supported by our strong financial results, our leverage ratio declined to 2.8x. We believe we're positioned to delever to 2.5x before funding our planned Mexico acquisition, which we expect to close by the end of this year. We also opportunistically accelerated our share repurchases in the quarter.
Through mid-July, we have repurchased $47 million in shares. We expect that our financial results will further support disciplined capital deployment throughout the year. Now our second quarter results reflect a strong performance in stable but still muted market conditions. U.S. credit volumes in the second quarter were slightly above expectations, particularly in consumer lending. Activity in cards remained steady, while auto and mortgage activity is below historical trends. Based on our overperformance in the first half of the year, we're increasing our 2025 full year revenue and adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance.
Even with this increase, we believe our updated guidance remains prudently conservative to accommodate ongoing macro uncertainties as we will detail later in the call. In the U.S., consumers and lenders remain sound and resilient, supporting stable lending activity. Consumers are benefiting from low unemployment, modest to positive real wage growth and manageable inflation. Consumer sentiment in June improved from low levels earlier in the year, reflecting a better outlook for the economy, inflation and personal finances.
Major lenders reported solid second quarter earnings with strong profitability adequate capital and good credit performance. Now in April, we noted that traded fiscal policy proposals added uncertainty to employment levels, inflation, interest rates and economic growth. The U.S. has reached trade agreements with several countries since then and more are expected soon. However, the recently passed U.S. fiscal package extends the 2017 rate [indiscernible] increases the deficit and raises the debt limit. This has raised concerns about higher inflation and interest rates, which could negatively impact economic and lending conditions. The 10-year U.S. treasury rate remains elevated, although below its mid-January peak and we will continue to monitor the impact of these policy changes on rates, consumers and our customers. In July, I attended the TransUnion Civil Annual Credit Conference in India, celebrating Civil's 25th anniversary.
The event drew over 2,500 clients, including more than 100 CEOs from major Indian lenders and key Reserve Bank of India regulators. We discuss future innovations to increase financial inclusion and introduce new solutions and market insights. This event reinforced Civil's strong reputation and the positive impact it has on the Indian economy. Our India strategy reflects our vision to foster trust in global commerce between consumers and businesses. We recognize significant opportunities in India supported by our scale, well-known brand, high-quality data innovative products and strong relationships with bankers and regulators alike. Our future innovation aims to expand credit access for underserved markets such as small- and medium-sized businesses, new to credit consumers and microfinance, all identified by India's government as vital economic drivers.
After the event, I'm even more confident that India represents an enormous long-term growth opportunity for TransUnion, with the potential to grow over 20% annually over the medium term. In the near term, consumer lending in India is experiencing a gradual volume recovery due to manageable delinquency levels, lower interest rates in the return to market of nonbank lenders who were sidelined by the Reserve Bank last year. The RBI has reduced interest rates by 100 basis points thus far in 2025 and and is balancing lending safety with economic growth. We anticipate our growth in India will accelerate later this year as lending volumes continue to recover resulting in nearly 10% organic constant currency revenue growth for the full year and with fourth quarter growth in the high teens. We also continue to transform the company by modernizing our technology, enhancing our global operating model and accelerating innovation across our product suites. I'll detail our reason progress.
In the quarter, we accelerated U.S. customer migrations and further enhance the core capabilities of One True, our global configurable cloud-native platform. Our customer migrations are focused on minimizing conversion disruptions while delivering our targeted savings within the committed investment levels. To achieve this, we strengthened OneTru's functionality to manage our most complex and customized batch and online workloads. We're achieving notable performance and innovation improvements on the new platform, including over 50% faster processing, robust cybersecurity and compliance controls and rapid development of new scores, attributes and models.
We also migrated several key consumer indirect customers to our new global consumer technology platform. This scalable platform enables faster product releases, seamless multi-region deployment and reduced operational complexity. To further enhance OneTru's capabilities, we have augmented its underlying identity graph with our comprehensive public records database. This integration enhances data fidelity and introduces more robust attributes related to addresses, phone numbers and e-mails.
Our identity graph now encompasses a wide array up to use proprietary data assets. including traditional [indiscernible] information, public records, communication and device identifiers, streaming data and other unique data sources. Together, these elements enable industry-leading consumer identity resolution, improved data onboarding, more targeted marketing and optimized fraud prevention and risk management.
During the quarter, we successfully transitioned over 20,000 specialized risk clients to the enhanced OneTru Identity Graph, resulting in significant performance gains for these customers. We also expanded adoption of our AI-driven developer tool, 1 true Assist, which employs advanced language models to automate repetitive coding tasks facilitate code translations and detect and address security vulnerabilities.
OneTru supports the entire OneTru software development life cycle and has contributed to 20% to 50% on productivity increases for developers. Additionally, we recently launched OneTru AI studio, which provides low-code and no-code AI workflow solutions for broader nonengineering use cases. We're improving our global operating model as well by strengthening product event practices and our leadership. In Q2, Brian Silver joined us as Head of Marketing Solutions, under [indiscernible], bringing significant digital marketing experience. We continue to refine our approach to product management to better align resources, streamline decision-making and accelerate new product iterations. These changes will improve commercial outcomes by integrating our geographic and vertical led go-to-market strength with enhanced product development expertise.
Our technology stack and operating model are contributing to faster innovation and growth across our 6 global solutions families. We've increased the pace of new product introductions while also completing foundational technology modernization. FactorTrust customers can now use OneTru with its improved processing times expanded scores and attributes in more rapid model development. FactorTrust growth rates have reached double digits due to competitive wins and with a strong pipeline of new opportunities.
In fraud, we launched new models using our materially enriched identity graph and our analytics and machine learning capabilities. Additionally, we developed a solution to identify consumers who dispute credit trade lines by falsely claiming to be fraud victims. Early demand for this solution is strong, representing a cross-sell opportunity into credit customers. Marketing Solutions reported stronger retention and increasing sales momentum, particularly within audience and identity products.
Within U.S. Consumer Solutions, we rolled out a new freemium offering with updated web and app experiences, resulting in strong growth in the number of new free users. We plan to further expand these capabilities and offer in our offer inventory. And with Monevo we integrated lenders' underwriting criteria to personalize prequalified offers through online publishers and improve consumer experience and add conversion. We will continue to build this marketplace by adding new publishers and top-tier lenders to the platform.
Now I'll conclude my remarks with a deeper dive into the innovation and growth of our communication solutions, particularly Trusted Call solutions or TCS. We entered the communication solutions market through our Neustar acquisition, which leveraged its relationships with telco companies to build a suite of data-driven authentication solutions. Our communication solutions help make Trust possible in the phone experience by authenticating and clarifying the purpose of phone calls. Our customers report better answer rates and higher consumer satisfaction when using the service.
The use case is typically combined fraud mitigation and brand identification to improve consumer engagement. Now Communications Solutions overall has grown 10% plus per annum since 2022 and should achieve $320 million in revenue in 2025. We Trusted Call solutions has grown from $50 million in revenue in '22 to an expected $150 million this year. Financial services accounts for almost 30% of TCS revenues with the remaining 70% spread across our emerging verticals. The remainder of Communications Solutions includes legacy products, such as landline caller ID and listings management.
These products embed us with telco companies and provide the data necessary for new products such as TCS and are very profitable, although the revenue growth is flat to declining slightly. In sum, we believe communication solutions can deliver at least high single-digit growth driven by the sizable market for trusted calls.
Now I'll detail how TCS works, why we're the market leader and how we will build on our momentum. Trusted Call Solutions enhances the phone channel, closing the user experience gap of digital channels. As most businesses rely on phone calls for important communications and consumers prefer them for urgent matters, unanswered calls in robo calls remain major issues. Over 80% of outbound calls go and answer and consumers receive 55 billion robo calls annually, leading to $12 billion in fraud. Our solutions adds color name, logo and call context to outbound calls. It authenticates inbound calls to block fraudsters and leads to better engagement, brand protection and financial results. Customers across industries report improved contact and conversion rates.
Now TCS integrates TransUnion into the mobile call ecosystem, establishing an essential framework that benefits telecommunications carriers, enterprises and end users. Enterprises serve as our primary clients. We authenticate and onboard their phone numbers and enriched call data into our comprehensive data management platform.
Telecommunications carriers are our strategic partners. What a call is initiated via a mobile network, the carriers access verified rich call data such name logo and contextual information from TransUnion to present on the recipients device. Enterprises compensate TransUnion for displaying authenticated information and we, in turn, provide royalties to the carriers.
Consumers benefit from an enhanced and trustworthy calling experience, enabling them to make informed decisions when responding to calls. Now TCS is positioned at the forefront of the industry, addressing an estimated opportunity exceeding $1 billion in the U.S. alone. We've identified several sustainable competitive advantages that underpin our success in this market. First, TCS covers 94% of U.S. wireless consumers through our exclusive relationship with AT&T and strategic partnerships with First Orion and T&S. This collaboration enabled the delivery of 5 billion authenticated branded calls across the top 3 carriers in 2024. Leveraging our broad on coverage and scale, we partnered with AT&T this year to introduce branded call displays featuring call reasons and providing context to phone calls and improving consumer engagement. Our innovation road map includes upcoming releases such as omnichannel capabilities and advanced fraud detection signals.
Second, we steward expansive and authoritative data sets to rigorously verify enterprises and telephone details. which enable us to [indiscernible] calls. Our robust industry relationships and integration with over 800 carriers enabled us to develop TCS. Third, we possessed extensive distribution channels through TransUnion that allow us to deploy TCS in numerous vertical markets. We see significant interest and strong sales across all sectors we cover, including financial services, insurance, health care in the public sector.
And finally, TCS integrates seamlessly with our market-leading fraud solutions to safeguard against data breaches, account takeover attempts, fishing and other impersonation related threats. Collectively, TCS enhances TU's long-term growth prospects, providing a pathway toward near $250 million in revenue by 2028. As the market leader, we maintain robust integration with telecom companies and businesses, positioning us to capitalize on a large market opportunity in the U.S. Our strategy includes deeper penetration of our core verticals scaling the existing solutions and broadening the product portfolio.
Furthermore, we believe that we can take this solution to many of our markets globally in the coming years. Recently, we launched a branded call display in Canada, developed in collaboration with TELUS, a leading Canadian telecommunications provider. And we have introduced initial solutions in Brazil and France and are evaluating additional opportunities in markets such as India. We will continue to provide updates on our progress as we scale TCS in the coming quarters.
And with that, I'll hand it over to Todd.
Thanks, Chris, and let me add my welcome to everyone. As Chris mentioned, in the second quarter, we exceeded our guidance across all key financial metrics, driven by broad-based outperformance in our U.S. market segment led by financial services. Second quarter consolidated revenue increased 10% on a reported and 9% on an organic constant currency basis.
The Monevo nivo acquisition contributed 0.5% to growth. Most of Monevo's revenue is recognized in the U.K. with the remaining U.S. revenue recognized in Consumer Interactive. The impact from foreign currency was immaterial. Our business grew 6% on an organic constant currency basis, excluding mortgage from both the second quarter of 2024 and 2025.
Adjusted EBITDA increased 8%. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 35.7%, ahead of our 34.8% to 35.3% guidance due to flow through a stronger revenue growth. Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $1.08, $0.09 ahead of the high end of our guidance and an increase of 9%. Finally, in the second quarter, we took $29 million of onetime charges related to our transformation program, $5 million for operating model optimization and $23 million for technology transformation.
To date, we have incurred $315 million of planned onetime transformation expenses over the course of the program and remain on track for $355 million to $375 million in onetime expenses by the end of 2025. Looking at segment financial performance for the second quarter. U.S. markets revenue was up 10% compared to the year ago quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA margin was 37.9%, down 110 basis points due to the timing shift of investments from the first quarter to the second quarter as we discussed in April. Financial Services revenue grew 17% or 11% excluding mortgage. Credit card and banking was up 5% against flattish online volumes. We saw good growth from alternative data sales and trusted call solutions as well as healthy batch activity.
Consumer lending growth accelerated to 18%. The we experienced further strengthening in marketing and online volumes from fintech and point-of-sale lenders. We also delivered strong factor trust growth. Auto grew 19%, driven by pricing of our data and third-party scores as well as good growth in our communications and marketing solutions. Volumes remained elevated in April, likely due to a pull forward of demand ahead of tariffs, but normalized in May and June towards levels seen early in the year.
For mortgage, revenue grew despite flat inquiry volumes, benefiting from third-party score pricing and non tri-bureau revenue. mortgage accounts for about 12% of TransUnion's trailing 12-month revenue. Emerging verticals grew 5%, led again by double-digit growth in insurance. tech, retail and e-commerce, telco antenna employment all grew mid-single digits. Media was flat and public sector and services declined. We expect media growth to improve in the second half as marketing wins convert to revenue and public sector to return to growth later in the year.
In insurance, we delivered another strong quarter, supported by stable market conditions. Marketing activity continues to recover as insurers benefit from improved rate adequacy, especially in Personal Lines auto. Consumer shopping also remained active. We delivered broad-based new business wins, including in core credit and driving history as well as trusted call solutions and our modern marketing products.
Turning to Consumer Interactive. Revenue grew 2% on an organic constant currency basis. Both our direct and indirect channels grew in the quarter. Excluding the impact from lapping a large breach remediation win, in the third quarter of 2024, we expect growth in the direct and indirect channels in the second half of the year. For my comments about International, all revenue growth comparisons will be in organic constant currency terms. For the total segment, revenue grew 6%. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 42.7%.
Looking at the specifics for each region. India growth accelerated to 8% as anticipated and up from the 1% growth in the first quarter. Commercial credit direct-to-consumer and new products like our API marketplace drove growth, offsetting still muted consumer credit volumes. Our U.K. business grew 5%, and batch and online activity remain healthy for our largest banking customers, and we continue to ramp new business wins across our verticals. In Canada, we grew 10% in a muted market. We drove growth through sales of our innovative fraud, identity and consumer indirect solutions.
Share gains across financial services, auto and insurance and increased portfolio review batch activity. We also benefited from some onetime revenues in the quarter. In Latin America, revenue grew 4%. And with modest growth in Colombia and Brazil and high single-digit growth in our other Latin American countries. In Asia Pacific, we declined 8% as we lapped onetime consulting revenue in the prior year. Philippines growth remains strong, while Hong Kong faces a softer economic backdrop. We expect Asia Pacific to return to growth in the second half of the year. Finally, Africa increased 14% with broad-based growth across financial services, retail and insurance.
Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $5.1 billion of debt and $688 million of cash. Our leverage ratio at quarter end was 2.8x. We have repurchased $47 million in shares year-to-date through mid-July, in line with our balanced approach to capital deployment. We remain focused on delevering to under 2.5x leverage ratio. Throughout the remainder of the year, we plan to balance debt prepayment and share repurchases based on market conditions.
We also plan to preserve capital ahead of our TransUnion de Mexico acquisition, which we expect will close by year-end. Turning to guidance. As Chris mentioned, we are raising our guidance for the full year primarily to account for strong first half results as well as continued business momentum. Even with the guidance raised, we maintained a prudently conservative posture for the remainder of the year to account for ongoing market uncertainty.
We believe we can manage some level of U.S. lending activity softening within our guidance range. Should current conditions persist, we would expect to deliver results at or above the high end of our guidance range. That brings us to our outlook for the third quarter. We expect FX to be less than 0.5% headwind to revenue and adjusted EBITDA. We expect Manivo acquisition to add a percent to revenue. We expect revenue to be between $1.115 billion and $1.135 billion or up 2% to 4% on an organic constant currency basis. These growth rates include a 4% headwind from lapping the large breach remediation win in last year's third quarter.
Excluding the breach comparison, our organic constant currency growth guidance would be 6% to 8%. Our revenue guidance includes approximately 2 points of tailwind from mortgage. In the third quarter, we expect mortgage inquiries to decline modestly. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $397 million and $411 million, up 1% to 4%. We expect adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.6% to 36.2%, down 10 to 70 basis points. Our margin expectation for the third quarter is consistent with our results in the first half of the year as well as our expectations for the full year. We expect our adjusted diluted earnings per share to be between $0.99 and $1.04, down 5% to flat.
Turning to the full year. We anticipate FX to be less than 0.5% headwind to revenue and adjusted EBITDA, and the Monevo acquisition to contribute 0.5% to revenue. We expect revenue of between $4.432 billion and $4.472 billion. We expect organic constant currency revenue growth of 6% to 7%, an increase from our prior guidance of 4.5% to 6%. Fluting mortgage, we expect organic constant currency growth of 4% to 5%. These growth rates include a 1% headwind from lapping the large breach in from last year's third quarter. Specific to our segment organic constant currency assumptions, we expect U.S. markets to grow mid-single digit, both including and excluding mortgage.
We anticipate Financial Services to be up low double digits or high single digit, excluding mortgage. We expect mortgage revenue to increase by over 20% and against modest declines in mortgage inquiries. We expect emerging verticals to be up mid-single digits. We anticipate Consumer Interactive decreasing low single-digit but increasing low single digit when excluding the impact of last year's large breach win. We anticipate international growing high single digit.
Turning back to the total company outlook. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $1.58 billion and $1.61 billion, up 5% to 7%, an increase from our prior guidance of 3% to 6%. That would result in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.7% to 36.0%, down 30 basis points to flat. We anticipate adjusted diluted earnings per share to be $4.03 to $4.14 up 3% to 6%, and also an increase from prior guidance of flat to 4% growth. Our expected adjusted diluted earnings per share growth reflects strong underlying performance and is inclusive of a 400 basis point headwind from foreign exchange and a higher tax rate in 2025. We expect depreciation and amortization to be approximately $570 million. We expect the portion, excluding step-up amortization from our 2012 change of control and subsequent acquisitions to be about $285 million as technology modernization initiatives go into production and start to depreciate. We now anticipate net interest expense will be about $200 million for the full year. We expect our adjusted tax rate to be approximately 26.5%. Capital expenditures are expected to be about 8% of revenue. We continue to expect to incur $100 million to $120 million in onetime charges in 2025 related to the last year of our transformation program. Given those investments, we expect our free cash flow conversion as a percentage of adjusted net income to be 70% in 2025 before improving to 90% plus in 2026.
In closing, we delivered strong results and are quickly approaching a period in 2026 and beyond that we believe will see stronger free cash flow generation and the leverage ratio within our target range. This will enable disciplined and shareholder-friendly deployment of capital, similar to our approach throughout the first half of the year. I will now turn the call back to Chris for final comments.
Thanks, Todd. In summary, we delivered a robust second quarter, surpassing our guidance across all key financial metrics and marking our sixth consecutive quarter of high single-digit organic revenue growth. Based on our strong performance in the first half of the year and sustained business momentum, we're raising our 2025 guidance, now anticipating 6% to 7% organic constant currency revenue growth. And we continue to make substantial progress toward our strategic priorities. Following several years of investment, our current focus is on execution and value creation. Our growth playbook, which has historically emphasized differentiated vertical market engagement and geographic expansion has driven our industry-leading growth over the past decade. As a result of our transformation, we are equipped with an expanded suite of solutions for our customers.
Product innovation is an increasingly essential component of our growth playbook, complementing our established vertical and geographic strategies. We are confident that our strategic investments and our disciplined execution will further enhance our product offerings and customer experience, positioning us for another phase of industry-leading growth. And with that, let me turn over the time to Greg.
That concludes our prepared remarks. For the Q&A, we ask that you each ask only one question so that we can include more participants. Operator, we can begin the Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Faiza Alwy from Deutsche Bank.
2. Question Answer
Chris, you mentioned in your prepared remarks that across all lending types, you're outperforming the overall market driven by new business wins. And I'm curious sort of is this more customer mix? Or is it related to some of the new technology and product innovation or something else you're doing? Just would love a little bit more color there.
Yes. Sure, Faiza. Well, I would say it's a combination of some of those elements. On the customer mix side, consumer lenders have come back strong in recent quarters as we expected. -- funding is flowing again to the space, and they're addressing an attractive market opportunity to consolidate revolving card balances at lower rates. It's what they're really good at. And as we know, consumer lending, fintech, in particular, was really bruised during the market slowdown in '22 and '23. But now they're back and they're back and forth. And it's going to benefit us disproportionately because we have very large share there. We are comfortably above 2/3 of the market in terms of market share, and they had a standout quarter, and they've got good momentum. I would say we're also selling into these financial services subcomponents, whether it's mortgage, consumer lending card, no auto, a broad array of products. Remember, these are market segments for us. They're not products. So yes, we're selling credit and credit analytics. But we're also selling Trusted Call Solutions. We're selling marketing solutions, in particular, in the auto vertical, we posted really great growth in the second quarter. Less than half of that was the price benefit from the core price increases, and it was just a little bit from volume. Rest of it is coming from the performance of our product suite in the auto segment. So I think it's an important thing to mention there. But look, we've got good momentum in financial services, as you can see from Q2 in the whole first half. And that's allowed us to raise the guide materially for the year, while still maintaining a very conservative posture.
The next question comes from Andrew Steinerman of JPMorgan.
Just 2 quick questions. One, I definitely noted the momentum at FactorTrust and other kind of alternative bureaus in the marketplace. Could you just give us a comment of why there's good momentum right now. to the alternative data bureaus. And is that tied to stronger loan growth? And then let me just give you my second question. About the Mexico acquisition, how is that asset performing now? And just remind us why it takes kind of a longer period of time to close, meaning longer than a traditional U.S. acquisition.
Yes. For sure, Andrew. Okay. So regarding alternative credit data, of which FactorTrust is a market leader. For us, it's really a story of re-platforming in innovation and then relaunching FactorTrust. We acquired FactorTrust some years ago. It's a great data set with good coverage, but it was on an antiquated technology platform. And so we prioritize moving it to OneTru. In the process of replatforming and on OneTru. One, of course, we did prove out that we could handle credit at volume with real-time reporting and the various complexities on the OneTru platform. But we also considerably innovated on the analytics side. We implemented a better identity spine underpinning the data. We added a lot of data attributes. We enabled our TruIQ analytics solution for more rapid modeling. And as a result, we're just winning more business with FactorTrust than we did previously. And we have a very robust pipeline. So I think the momentum in FactorTrust is going to continue. Perhaps we're getting some benefit selling it as an add-on into some of these other segments. Consumer lenders are -- the fintech guys do like this alternative data Anybody with a subprime focus is also interested in the subprime data. And we posted some nice sales FactorTrust in the auto vertical as well. Now in terms of the time for Mexico, or just the performance. The asset continues to perform well. It's on plan. And we're still on plan in terms of clearing the government review and regulatory hurdles to closing the acquisition. We are targeting and hoping to close the deal before the end of the year. And look, some of this just takes a bit of time. But the fact that it takes time, shouldn't raise any concerns that's just the operating standard in Mexico, but we're getting a great asset at a really fair price, and we're going to bring a ton of innovation to the Mexican market that I think is going to sustain and increase the growth rate for many years to come.
Our next question comes from Jeff Meuler of Baird.
So on the CI freemium and marketplace rollout, it sounds like it's a little bit staggered or it's kind of like a beta period. So what are the most important initial learnings? And then what's the time line to more fully integrated capabilities and build out marketplace? And then I guess, finally, are you willing to share anything on what you now expect intermediate term for growth out of the Consumer Interactive business?
Yes, yes, for sure. So look, it was a solid quarter. for the consumer segment overall, the direct business and the indirect business both grew low single digits. As you know and everybody on the call knows, we've been investing heavily in this space for several years now to add the capabilities that you need to grow in this current environment. We've launched our new freemium solution. That means new user interface integrating subscription offerings and integrating a full complement of loan -- of consumer loan offers as well as identity protection and breach remediation. We exited the beta period in the first quarter. In the second quarter, we've been converting our core customer base, and we're probably plus 75% at this point. and we're converting over the offer inventory to the new platform, and that's probably at 75% or 80%, too. But right away, you can see that it's going to have a positive impact on the growth rates of the business, particularly on the direct side, where we've been working hard to mitigate the decline. I think we've got that behind us now. And our goal is to kind of stabilize this low single-digit growth in the coming quarters as we start to optimize these different elements that we've got now, offers, freemium, an integrated offering of subscription, freemium, breach, all of these things coming together, the interplay, we're going to be optimizing our marketing, optimizing our customer flows and conversion, if you will, the pricing, all of this stuff. And then, look, over time, we're going to bring more and more lenders and offer types onto the platform. It won't be so card-focused There'll be a lot of different opportunities for consumers to engage with TransUnion in a freemium way and get the full range of consumer lending and insurance offers and other opportunities there. And in terms of the guide, look, right now, we're just executing on a whole bunch of goodness, bringing it together and returning this $600 million chunk of business to consistent growth. In the intermediate term, mid-single-digit growth. And I think once we're firing on all cylinders, we would expect to push even beyond mid-single digits. So hopefully, that clarifies.
The next question comes from Toni Kaplan of Morgan Stanley.
I was hoping you can talk about the consumer lending environment. I think late last year and early this year, you had talked about it being a stable but muted environment. Now it seems like you're seeing it a little bit better than expected and better than that. And when I look at U.S. financial services, you grew double-digit ex mortgage. So just it sounds like you're still being a little bit cautious on how the environment plays out just with potential for deficits and inflation and that potentially impacting lending. But maybe just talk through where you -- like how much better is it now? Where do you think for the remainder of the year, we sort of are in terms of market strength and into next year? And just the puts and takes around all of that.
Yes. Well, we'll give you some flavor there around financial services. So yes, it's stable but muted I think that's a fair assessment, although perhaps a little bit less so than it has been in recent quarters. I mean as you can see consumer lending is coming back, and I've already talked about that opportunity, Card is still a more tempered environment, kind of flattish online volumes. And we are selling in alternative data and trusted call solutions into cards. The big banks all reported over the past couple of weeks, and their commentary on card was a bit more optimistic, I think, than we've seen. And we're starting to see some nice positive batch activity in card, which means card lenders are moving more toward the front foot, if you will, which is good. But it's far short of saying, happy days are here again. Auto, I talked about the volumes are still net positive a bit. A lot of that is the pull forward because of tariff fears, but we're selling a lot of products into the auto vertical, which is great in driving our revenue growth. And look, mortgage is bouncing along what I think is a bottom. This is kind of like industry existential volume levels. The 10-year rates remain elevated, and there's still I don't know, kind of neutral in terms of whether they're going to go up or they're going to go down. We're going to have to see how that plays out. And so I don't expect a big refinance boom to happen anytime soon. And asset affordability is still a challenge because of the supply side of the housing equation. But what it really shows is one, as an industry, we're trading on rather tempered volume levels because of all of rate increases that happened in the '22, early '23 time period, as we've said. And so if you get just a little perk up in volume activity, you get nice growth rates. It also speaks to the portfolio diversification that we have achieved. Again, when we talk about consumer lending or card or auto, these are market segments. We're not just selling credit products. We're selling analytics. We're selling alternative data, marketing, fraud, phone solutions, et cetera, right? And the breadth of the offering is appealing, and we're putting good points on the board.
The next question comes from Manav Patnaik of Barclays.
I was just hoping for maybe a quick update on your fintech exposure, how that's performing some of this positive business momentum you're talking about how much of that is from that customer category?
Sure. So Manav, I've touched a couple of times on consumer lending. And while the category is broader than just fintech. Fintechs are an important part of that. And as you can see from the results of the larger players, they're doing much better. In fact, they've recovered the stability that we see in the market environment, even at an elevated interest rate allows funding to flow back into the market and that takes care of the supply side of things. The demand side is good because during the COVID era, when credit scores artificially were inflated, a lot of cards were issued to a lot of consumers that might not have qualified for them previously. And they took advantage of that and they levered up and they're revolving those balances, and that creates a great demand side opportunity for loan consolidation. So we're definitely seeing a pickup in fintech within consumer lending. But look, I just want to emphasize, it's more than just consumer lending. The growth is great. We expect it to continue, but we're really doing solid performance across all of the financial services subcategories.
Our next question comes from Ashish Sabadra of RBC Capital Markets.
Apologies, Ashish. I seem to have lost your line. We will be going with the next question, Scott Wurtzel from Wolfe Research.
I just wanted to touch on the mortgage side and specifically on the prequel environment. I'm just wondering if you could speak to what you're seeing in the market from general shopping activity to also the competitive dynamics in that space.
Scott, thanks for the question. I'll jump in here with that. As far as mortgage is concerned, I think what -- we've been pleased with the performance that we've seen to date in general, through the first half inquiries have been in line. And as a reminder, -- when we talk about our inquiries, we're talking about prequalification as well as Tri-Merge. So in the second quarter, in particular, we were roughly flat. And this goes to what Chris just said in the previous response that there's -- we believe we're at a bottom here and that there should be upside in the space. The revenue that we saw did outperform specifically to your question, due to prequalification. We have seen good traction with our customers. in that space, especially after the change last year with the early access program. So we've been able to maintain our position, if not even gain on what we have there. But in mortgage, we've -- outside of just the pricing that we all know about and what drives the majority of the 29% revenue increase that we saw. We've also had some success selling other parts of our product portfolio such as batch marketing as well as trusted call solutions, which we obviously covered in-depth on the call here today. So as we look to go forward into the second half of the year, I mean, for all intents and purposes, we're pretty much holding to the guidance that we've been provided -- providing thus far. So that will call for the second half for inquiries to be down modestly. And then for the full year, also be down modestly as well, too.
Once again, I will introduce Ashish Sabadra of RBC Capital Markets is our next question asker.
Just wanted to go back to India. Obviously, we saw some pretty material acceleration in India. From 1Q to 2Q, you've talked about 20% plus growth over the midterm. I was just wondering if you could provide some color about the second half of the year. How should we think about the puts and takes there?
Yes, I just got back from a week in India. It was very exciting, invigorating in fact. First, it's great to see the business pick up materially as it did increasing from 1% to 8% organic. I feel like consumer lending momentum is returning in that market as we expected. Now that the posture of the Reserve Bank pivoted to balancing growth as well as safety and soundness. The team there is still confident that for the full year, we can hit a 10% growth rate. And that means by the fourth quarter, we should be back to high teens organic growth. And then that sets us up to a return to probably low 20% kind of compounding and potentially better. As I mentioned, I was over there because we were celebrating the 25th anniversary of our bureau over there, it's called [indiscernible]. And I interact with just a ton of CEOs and a ton of senior regulators and they confirm that because of the actions of the RBI, they expect consumer lending to return full force over the next 4 quarters. And so that's in addition to this improvement in volume that translated into 8% growth for us in the second quarter. And look, the reasons are the RBI has cut rates by 100 bps already very focused on stimulating economic growth. Inflation is lower in India than it has been in quite a number of years. That's encouraging, too. So that's part of the pro growth stance. The RBI has also indicated that they're comfortable with the loan-to-deposit ratio in consumer lending currently and with the lending practices of certain key nonbank financial players who were sidelined over much of the past 6 quarters, but have now come back into the market and are beginning to resume lending. And look, delinquencies overall are holding up nicely. They are manageable. They're within historical standards. So we're really setting up for the recovery in consumer lending in India that we expected. It took about 6 quarters for India to slow down to the bottom in Q1. It will probably take about 6 quarters until they are fully back rolling along and we're 2 quarters in. But look, India represents an enormous long-term opportunity. What's exciting about being over there is regulators and lenders, they really appreciate the value of credit reporting agencies and having a foundation of objective and quantitative data to base their lending practices on. They've only had a functioning score in that market for about 20 years. And the CEOs can tell you what it was like lending to consumers previously, which is they were very conservative, they were very cautious. And they recognize that in working with us over this period, they've been able to bring literally hundreds of millions of Indian consumers in the mainstream consumer finance. So financial inclusion has been great that's helped drive their economic growth. And in addition to all the secular tailwinds of great demographics, further financial penetration potential, the continuing digitalization of commerce there and urbanization trends, there's a ton of growth opportunity. And we're maintaining our market share in the low 70s, which is great. We have a data quality advantage. And I think it sets us up for at least 20% compounding over the longer term. It's also a diversified portfolio. With all this growth potential in consumer, consumer is 60% of our revenues today. And there's a lot of opportunity for innovation there. And microfinance, agri lending, lending to small and medium businesses. Plus, we're setting up to bring marketing and fraud solutions to India on OneTru. And we just launched the TruIQ analytics platform there and completed our first innovation lab. And there's an enormous appetite for more analytics in the Indian market. we partnered with this customer. We earned several hundred thousand dollars worth of consulting fees that we've got their data business for the long term, and there's great potential. And I guess the last thing I would say is, look, I had the privilege of meeting with the governor of the Reserve Bank of India, while I was there, my team and I and really, their focus is all about how they can bring more of the Indian population into the mainstream lending economy. While they're pleased that there are now hundreds of millions of folks participating in that, there are still hundreds of millions of people, particularly in rural areas that want access to capital on more favorable terms and they want to understand how they can leverage all of this alternative data that they've created with their federal registry for for wealth, for real estate, for the data that's flowing through their universal payment interface. And we're positioned to help them think through the opportunity and partner on the execution. So India is indeed a very bright growth opportunity for us, and we're fortunate to have it.
The next question comes from [indiscernible] of Autonomous.
With the recent announcement from the FDA in terms of validating the usage of Vantage 4.0 in mortgage underwriting I was just wondering how you really think about the strategy to gain share for VantageScore, not just in mortgage but also in non-mortgage verticals.
Yes. Fair enough, Kelsey. So look, first, I would just say that we appreciate and we support the clarification around policy that the FHFA has made recently with their pronouncements around the mortgage tri-merge and score competition. We think they are the right decisions for consumers, for the GSEs and for just the safety and soundness of the mortgage economy overall. And basically, they're just founded on the principle that more data, particularly when the data is accurate, curated and predictive will result in better outcomes across the board. And look, that was our positioning all along on the mortgage tri-merge, right? The bureaus have differences in their data and a mortgage decision is enormously important for the typical American consumer. It's not only a quality of life issue, it's one of the best wealth-building opportunities. And we should bring to bear all of the [indiscernible] curated data that's available to make the best possible decision for behalf of that consumer as a borrower but also on the behalf of all those consumers who are also taxpayers and ultimately bear the risk of the GSE. So maintaining the tri-merge makes a ton of sense. Regarding scores and score competition, clearly, we think it's time to modernize scoring the current score that has been in effect since 2004 can be improved. And it also relies on point-in-time credit data, right? And for over a decade now, the entirety of the consumer lending industry has been pivoting to trended credit data. Now we led that with the introduction of our CreditVision trended credit data in the U.S. in 2012. But all of the bureaus have turned to credit data. All of the clients across all lending categories are using trended credit data. And it's so much more predictive and effective that all the clients pay a material price premium to use it. So for the purpose of evaluating whether a mortgage application qualifies as conforming or not for the GSEs, by all means, let's pivot to credit scores that are based on trended data and let's incurred competition. The competition leads to innovation, it leads to sharpening the pencil on price. And so we're very supportive of the policy decisions. Now look, with any major policy pivot like this, it's going to take some time until all of the operational nuances are ironed out. The regulators are working hard on that now. And look, we're standing at the ready, along with Vantage to complete whatever analytics or comparisons that they want between the various score that are out there in the market. And look, we hope that the GSEs will we'll pursue that. We know that they're interested, and we know that we're willing. And we'll just have to see how this plays out because it is a complex industry in a complex situation, but I'm confident that the right policies are in place for the right reasons, and that ultimately is going to benefit the overall mortgage economy.
Our final question this morning comes from Jason Haas of Wells Fargo.
I wanted to follow up on some of the figures that you've given around the investment and expected that benefits from the cost savings program. So you've called out $100 million to $120 million of investments this year. Can I confirm that next year, the expectation is that, that goes to 0? And then alongside that, the expected benefit is $120 million to $140 million of OpEx savings. Are you able to give me a sense for how much will be incremental for next year? So from -- yes, so how much versus this year? And then yes, that will be it.
Jason, this is Todd. I'll take that question. So the answer to the first part of your question as it pertains to the investment you're referring to the onetime cost for both the optimization of our org model as well as our technology transformation. We committed to a spend of up to $375 million. We are on track to hit that number and being probably not even exceed it, we'll be right around it. And the expectation is that it's going to stop at the end of 2025 as we committed to. The benefits from that program as we shift into 2026, what we're focused on is the free cash flow benefit. And if you remember, when we announced the transformation program in November of 2023, we committed to a $200 million free cash flow benefit going forward in 2026. And we have really good line of sight to that. As a reminder, on the operating expense savings from the program, we achieved a significant portion of that in 2024, it was about $85 million. The remainder of those cost saves are going to largely come in 2026 because in 2025, we always planned to complete our tech transformation work. And that's what we're in the midst of doing right now. The last component of this is capital expenditures. We are running at about 8% of our revenue, which has been historically where TransUnion has ran at. The commitment for 2026 and beyond is that capital expenditures will drop down to 6% of our revenue. And a lot of that just pertains to moving our computing environment to a cloud where the cloud-based environment where the expense shows up in the P&L as opposed to being capitalized. So the net-net of all of this is the free cash flow conversion. This year, we anticipate to make significant progress in improving the free cash flow conversion to 70% and what's most important with those free cash flow savings that I already talked about in 2026, we are committing to 90% plus on the free cash flow conversion.
Yes. And so look, the net of it is, the program is on track. We are very confident that we're going to deliver the savings that we articulated and that we're not going to spend more than the investment that we articulated, and it's going to happen within the time frame that we targeted. And so that's great, and that's all the kind of financial savings aspect. But again, this modernization is also leading to a real acceleration in our innovation. And that's why in my comments, I talked about the retooling and FactorTrust and how we're getting great commercial value out of that. the launch of our TruIQ analytics in multiple markets around the world, including data enrichment, innovation in fraud, innovation in our identity graph, this is all being enabled by this OneTru platform that we're creating, and we're going to get tremendous leverage about it. And look, I'd be remiss if we ended the call if we didn't just reinforce that we have put forth improved guidance for 2025, and we firmly believe that it is conservative guidance. We grew 8% and 9% in organically in the first 2 quarters. And if you do the math, which I'm sure all of you smart analysts have, our guide still assumes that we are decelerating in the third quarter and particularly in the fourth quarter. And the reason we're doing that is because we're being prudently conservative. We want to have guidance that while elevated would still allow us to support and offset a slowdown in lending that may or may not arise. What I do want to be clear is that this slowdown is not reflected in our current business momentum, right? We're almost done with July. July is a continuation of the strength that we saw in the second quarter. And unless there's a slowdown in lending or a slowdown in the economy generally, we would expect to exceed the high end of the guidance that we've provided today. And that's true not only on revenue, but EBITDA and all of the different financial metrics. So I just want to be clear on that before we end the call.
Perfect. That's a good place to end. Thanks for all your questions today, and have a great rest of the day.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now all disconnect your lines.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
TransUnion — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
TransUnion — 45th Annual William Blair Growth Stock Conference
1. Question Answer
All right. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for being here for the TransUnion presentation. My name is Andrew Nicholas, and I'm the business services analyst here at William Blair. Before getting started, I'm required to inform you that for a complete list of research disclosures or potential conflicts of interest, please visit our website at williamblair.com.
With that out of the way, very pleased to welcome TransUnion's CEO, Christopher Cartwright, to the stage. We're going to spend the 30 minutes we have here going through the high-level topics of the business, give you a sense of what TransUnion does, who they are and a little bit about the macroeconomic backdrop before we move to the breakout for maybe a more detailed discussion as well.
So first of all, thanks, Chris, for being here. If you wouldn't mind starting just again in the theme of it being a generalist conference, just talking a little bit about the business, who you're serving, what you do, and we can kind of move from there.
Okay. Great. So if you'll allow me 2 to 3 minutes max as just a primer on credit reporting agencies and what we do in particular. So most people are familiar with credit reporting. You're likely a subscriber to a service of some sort that gives you access for monitoring. But at the core, the industry takes in information from lenders, personal lenders of all stripes in a geography in the U.S., for example, we probably have close to 95,000 different consumer lending institutions that are furnishing us data periodically. At a minimum, it's on a monthly basis, but it can be more as frequent as every day, depending on the lender or the segment of the space.
And that informs us as to the existence of loans to particular consumers, the terms of those loans and their payment performance. And from that, we can provide that data history, but also provide different analytic views. It could be as familiar as a credit score, and there are many different flavors of credit scores and customized credit scores that a lender will produce or rather that a bureau will produce for lenders. And so that was the business model. And it provides a quantitative and unbiased foundation for making lending decisions where the lender and the consumer don't know one another, which is the preponderance of cases these days.
And so that model was taken globally. TransUnion serves over 35 different nations, geographies around the planet with this basic credit reporting information that's used for a variety of use cases within a lender in the process of their life cycle relationships with consumers and just participating in the market. So the first use cases, if you will, is simply to understand the size, the flavor, the dynamics of the consumer lending market. And that could be mortgages, student loans, personal loans, auto loans, card loans, et cetera. It's the full panoply of consumer lending products. So what's going on? And then how are we doing as a lender? We'll benchmark our relative performance.
And then moving on to, well, who are those consumers that are attractive to us and we would like to do business with. And so we can provide snapshots and lists of that information that then allow lenders to market to those consumers, right? So that would be on the market understanding and customer acquisition side. The other use cases would be a lender has a book of outstanding loans, market conditions are varying, consumers are being impacted to varying degrees. What's the risk that's emerging in the existing inventory or portfolio of consumer loans? And how should the lender adjust their practices vis-a-vis these outstanding loans to mitigate risk and ensure safety and soundness. And then at the end of this relationship life cycle, if you will, some loans become late. Some of those loans become fully delinquent and become collection issues.
Now some lenders are going to collect on their own, and we're going to be able to provide analytics that help them prioritize their operational efforts to go get the loans because clearly, you want to get the maximum amount of recovery for the minimum amount of labor output. Other lenders will want to sell it to the third-party collections industry. And the question will be, well, how do I fairly value this portfolio of delinquent debt? And again, our collections business provides those types of analytics. So that's the core model, and it exists in all these different countries.
Now what we've done in recent years is we've decided to go from just helping our lending customers understand the market and identify who they would like to do business with to assisting them in the range of marketing activities to actually go get those consumers, right? And so that's everything from enriching their understanding of who those loan attractive consumers are with a variety of marketing type information, demographic, psychographic, geographic behavioral data elements to the ability to create audiences and to onboard digitally marketing campaigns and then measure the effectiveness of the marketing efforts and then continue to do that.
And then the last element of the portfolio of services would be fraud mitigation because, look, if you're effective in your marketing, you're going to entice consumers to engage with you. That may be a phone call, that may be an e-commerce type of transaction. And when that happens, you want to authenticate that you are dealing with the very consumer that you targeted because fraud is material and fraud is a growing risk. And we have great tools and services that can authenticate e-commerce transactions and can also authenticate phone transactions, right?
And so that's the panopoly, the 3 critical services of credit of marketing and then a fraud mitigation that today rests on a common platform, all organized around this persistent consumer identity, name, rank, serial number, address, phone numbers, e-mail addresses, device IDs. We've aggregated all of that. And then we -- that's the foundation upon which the credit information, the marketing data and the fraud services all rests. I'll pause.
No, that's perfect. Very helpful. Maybe we'll start and hone in on the credit piece, in particular. Obviously, every quarter is a new quarter, a lot going on in the macroeconomic environment. Can you speak to kind of the state of the consumer today, what you're seeing in terms of lender behavior along the spectrum of credit origination versus portfolio review and just kind of the status quo right now as you see it?
So from a consumer health perspective, the health checkup is quite solid for consumers, right? They're healthy, but they're extremely worried about the future. And I think that statement is true of investors as well as consumers. But look, consumers are still highly employed. They're enjoying some real wage gains. Inflation, while it's not back to that 2% target, it's been reined in considerably. If you look at their kind of income to leverage ratios and you -- inflation adjust all of this, their leverage ratios are still healthy and delinquencies are within reasonable boundaries, if you will.
The only, I think, concern that we see at this point is, with the unemployment rate, if you unbundle the number, the percentage of consumers that are working part time but wish they could work more hours has increased in a material way, and that could be an early indicator of a slowdown in the jobs market. And I think there were some numbers that came out today that indicated that hiring may have softened a bit. No, not today, yesterday. And right away, you saw the 10-year rate start to dip a little bit to accommodate a slowing marketplace. But in general, the consumer metrics have held up pretty well. And then the consumers' demand for financial products is still there, right?
Now again, the business -- our business lending and supporting lending with data has slowed over the past 3 years or so as first inflation spiked, then rates spiked, then there was a recession in lending volumes and our volumes came down, but then stabilized about 18 months ago. So we're still in a subdued but stable range of lending activity. Mortgage is very low relative to its peak and relative to the long-term trend line. Consumer lending as well. Autos is a bit low. Card is fairly stable. But all of these should be considered at near baseline activity levels. Now we would benefit a lot from thoroughly taming inflation and getting a reduction in the 10-year. So there's a lot of upside to the lending volumes, if you will.
But right now, given the state of consumer health, given the ongoing demand that we see for lending products and just the availability, right, the supply side of the equation, banks are there and willing to lend. There is a degree of caution that's crept in that the lending box is still -- the aperture is about the same as it's been previous -- over the past, I'd say, 8 quarters. And banks of all sizes have replenished their deposit base, really starting from mid-2024, they attracted the deposits that they needed to be confident going back into the market and resuming a higher level of lending activity, and we've seen that. So overall, pretty good.
Now obviously, lots of different parties are worried about what's to come 3 months, 6 months down the road, depending on the fiscal posture of the U.S., the Big Beautiful Bill and things like that, but also the trade policies that persist. And that's just an unknown. There are a variety of scenarios. But at this point in time, that's what I see.
And maybe honing in even a little bit further, I think TransUnion has -- was a first mover to the fintech space. Can you speak a little bit to that client base in particular? I think in the past, you've seen some of that level and stabilize. Is it picking up, too? Or how would you describe that backdrop?
Well, again, starting with a bit fuller time line, fintechs boomed and were responsible for like 20% of the originations in the U.S. before inflation spiked and rates went up. And then investors who were funding all of these loans to the fintechs pulled back materially, and we entered into a 2- or 3-year winter, if you will, in the fintech space where it was really hunkered down and survive. A lot of money has started to flow back into fintechs, and you're seeing some of the larger and best-known fins post really good financial results, increased their guidance for the full year.
And that's because, again, with current conditions, investors are willing to loan money to the fintechs for them to deploy in the form of loan -- debt consolidation loans and a variety of other financial products. But it's a good time for them because their balance sheets are stable and replenished, but also there was a lot of card issuance during this COVID chapter in our economy to consumers that looked like they were more lendable than they actually were, right? And so they got credit cards and loaned out in lines and they quickly utilize them. And now they're revolving maxed out lines at pretty high rates of interest, and it's a great consolidation opportunity. And that's what fintech is terrific at.
Great. A few more just on the macro backdrop before we move into some more kind of TransUnion-specific growth initiatives. Just on India, in particular, it's an incredibly valuable business for you, a dominant market position in that area. Can you speak to conditions there because it's been a little bit of a different growth slope to start the year. But there is, at least as of the last quarter, some confidence in that growth accelerating again exiting the year. So can you give investors in the room a little bit of context there and how things are going?
Sure. So we are the largest and far and away, best-known brand in the CRE space in India. We have over 70% market share, and we have maintained that market share despite lots of competitors coming into what is probably the most growthful and attractive market in the world at this point in time. As some of our longer-term investors here will know, we've been compounding at up to 30% plus a year in India for some years now. And we expect to achieve several hundred million in revenue this year from the Indian market.
Now over the past, I'd say, 4 to 6 quarters, our growth rate in India started to slow a lot. And that was because the RBI became concerned about an excess of froth in the consumer lending market and started to put their thumb on the scale, so to speak. So what concerned them was the deposit-to-loan ratios were getting a little stretched, and they thought it was because of some speculation in the market where some consumers were taking out these short-term unsecured loans and putting it in the very hot Indian stock market. They were also concerned that some lenders weren't doing all the appropriate diligence before issuing a loan, et cetera.
So they took some of the larger lenders and said, you're in the penalty box, you can no longer issue loans for a while, and you've got to improve your loan diligence standards thereafter. And they went across really the piece in the lending industry and said, get your loan-to-deposit ratio in a more normalized level. Well, as a result of that, lending volumes fell and our revenue growth rates declined. right? In this most recent quarter, we were flat.
Now what we have seen, though, is there's been a transition in leadership at the RBI from an outgoing leader that was very focused on safety and soundness and calming froth in the market to a new leader that's been very vocal about balancing safety and soundness with growth. The consequence of the prior RBI practices is that GDP growth in India slowed because there was less credit going into the system. That's not good. So now India has 6% GDP growth. They aspire for more and the economy is capable of producing more, plus inflation is pretty much controlled. It's actually quite low for the Indian market. It's at 3% or 4% right now, which is solid.
So this RBI governor has been clear that the RBI is happy with the current loan-to-deposit ratio. The RBI has injected more liquidity into the market, and they've taken all those lenders out of the penalty box and allowed them to resume lending, right? And that lending activity is ramping up. So we believe over the fullness of 2025, we'll go from 0% growth in the first quarter to probably high teens growth in the fourth quarter, the exit growth rate and a full year growth rate of about 10% in India as we get back on that longer term, let's say, high teens, low 20% compounding. It could be north of that, right? But I mean, it's a super growthful market, and we're very well positioned.
And the other exciting thing is, look, we're bringing lots of new products into India. We do more than just support consumer lending in India. We are also, for lack of a better term, we are a Dun & Bradstreet commercial credit provider in India. And we're also bringing our full suite of marketing and fraud and identity resolution offerings into the Indian market in the coming years as well as a new and improved suite of analytics solutions that our clients will use across different market segments in India. So there's a lot of new product, a lot of new growth curves that we're launching in India because we have a right to do well across all of those segments.
I was actually going to go in a different direction, but because you mentioned all that and bringing new products into India, I think that's consistent with what you've done in international geographies in the past. And I think a lot of that is enabled by the tech infrastructure. So maybe this is a good time to talk about the tech infrastructure, the transformation plan that you've undergone several times here in the past couple of years and the cost savings that you've messaged and capital spending savings that you've messaged tied to that.
Well, look, because there are some folks here that are new to the story, if you will, the starting point for TransUnion and frankly, for many Infoserve players that built the business in a given geography, the U.S. and then took it global, it was very much a one country at a time expansion over a 40-year period. And so we ended up with a very fragmented tech stack across these 35-plus geographies in which we operate. And so you end up with a degree of tech sprawl, if you will. And now we're at a new chapter in technology where public cloud providers can offer very attractive alternatives to your own hosted data centers.
So there are a couple of ways that you take advantage of that. One, you can take everything that you've got across all your geographies and move it to a Google, an Amazon, a Microsoft, et cetera, right? There, you get the benefit of their superior data center management capabilities, better cybersecurity, if you will, and also the ability to flex the size of your compute capacity based on your needs, which, of course, vary over time, which can vary over a 24-hour period. And so we're doing that at a minimum.
But what we're really able to do now is because of innovation on our tech stack, we created a next-generation foundational data and analytics platform, if you will, that has currently been deployed in the U.S. and underpins our credit, marketing and fraud products, again, all organized around a persistent consumer identity. And we call that OneTru. And we are completing the migration of all of our U.S. customers onto OneTru for the fulfillment of those 3 key services this year. And we're going to then be able to close all of our data centers and downsize the labor associated with that, which will more than cover the cost of running the business in GCP and Amazon.
We'll then turn to our international markets next year and migrate Canada, the U.K. and the Philippines all to the OneTru platform. And so our technology migration, which is going to drive a ton of standardization, innovation and cost savings is enabled by having a next-gen platform that was built native to the cloud and agnostic between cloud providers, so we can switch our workloads between them and ensure good price competition. That's going to achieve a level of savings across this tech sprawl that's kind of unique in our industry, right? It's building a platform that can underpin all your different products globally is a higher order engineering capability.
We were able to achieve that in combination with an acquisition that we did in late 2021, a company called Neustar that had this very advanced tech platform that we've since expanded to cover all of our needs. We're going to achieve that consolidation.
The other benefit of the consolidation is that because we will have our best-in-class products for all these main categories running on one platform, when we convert a market to that new platform, they can suddenly begin selling the products, this broad range of products in that market. So when we go to Canada or the U.K. and they convert to the OneTru platform, they will get not only best-in-class credit management capabilities, but the best of our analytics suite, our best marketing suite of services, our best fraud, et cetera. And those will be powerful new product innovations that should spur faster revenue growth in each of the markets that converts to this global platform.
And you've seen it in other international geographies, I would expect or suspect that's also the rationale for the Mexico acquisition that you announced earlier.
Yes. It's certainly part of the synergy case that we've built around acquiring Mexico. So I would say, look, Mexico is kind of a mini India, if you will. It's a large population. It's a fast-growing population. They are underserved in terms of mainstream credit products from kind of a more Western sophisticated kind of U.S., Canada, U.K. type of population. And so -- and also the credit products that the banks are consuming there are very basic. So Mexico was just an attractive geography for us to expand into.
Now we help build the Mexican credit bureau starting in 1996 in partnership with the major banks there. And frankly, from like '96 forward, we wanted to own the bureau in its entirety, but the banks just weren't ready to sell. When they became ready to sell, we were able to acquire the business recently. That acquisition is going through its regulatory review period and should close at the end of this year, early Q1, we think, at the latest. But it's a very attractive fast growth, margin-accretive business that we can bring a lot of new product innovation to and a lot of analytic rigor to because of this next-gen technology platform that we're implementing around the world.
Great. We have about 5 minutes left. I want to make sure we hit on some of the more topical regulatory items, been a lot of commentary out of D.C. from the FHFA around mortgage score pricing, maybe a refocus on the tri-merge to bi-merge transition. Can we hit those 2 topics? Maybe give a little context for the audience as to what I'm referring to and then also how TransUnion is thinking about the potential impact.
Well, I would say from '23 forward, this has been a pretty difficult environment for mortgage lenders, right? Rates went up a lot and volumes went down a lot and the boom in refis that drove so much of the industry went away, right? So you've got an environment with many fewer mortgage transactions, but also an environment where consumers are shopping more when they go to pursue a mortgage. So what that means is that mortgage originators are having to incur a lot of marketing and early loan evaluation costs, but not necessarily booking the same percentage of those opportunities that they did previously. So it's a difficult time financially.
At the same time, for the portion of origination costs that are data-driven, which happens to be the smallest proportion of mortgage origination costs, which are estimated about $8,500, right? The data load is maybe $300. But there are certain players, certain score providers, verified income and employment data providers that have aggressively taken price during this period and incurred kind of the ire of the mortgage lending industry. Now we're a player in that space. But we're not a score provider. We are a facilitator of providing a mortgage score, and we don't provide the income and employment. We provide underlying credit data.
And the government requirement in mortgage origination is that you pull a credit report from each of the 3 leading bureaus here in the U.S. That's called the tri-merge. An idea to save on the data load for originating a mortgage has been to move from 3 reports required to 2 reports required. And the requirement is how many reports do you have to pull to underwrite a mortgage that you can then sell to Fannie or Freddie for securitization, a conforming mortgage, which is a pretty material amount of the market.
The problem is that the 3 bureaus' data sets are not identical. There are historical strengths in various geographies that lead to differences. Some suppliers like on the fintech side, we have far and away the largest proportion of the market reporting their loans, the fintech market. So if you go from 3 to 2, you're going to miss out on certain data. And that missing data will mean, and we've shown this empirically that a couple of million consumers that apply for mortgages each year, whether it's a first home purchase or a refi, they're not going to qualify or they're not going to qualify for the lowest cost government-sponsored loan, right?
So there's a negative impact on the goal of broadening the mortgage market and including the most consumers possible from moving through a tri-merge to a bi-merge.
Now the new director of the FHFA and in fact, the leader simultaneously of Fannie and Freddie, Bill Pulte, is sympathetic to reducing the cost of mortgage origination, and he's been tweeting and calling out certain data suppliers who have been very aggressive in their pricing. I'm not sure what it's going to lead to at this point. But in his recent comments, it's pretty clear it's unlikely it's going to result in a move from 3 bureaus to 2 bureaus to originate a mortgage for the GSE because that's what's written into the laws and the regs today. And he said repeatedly, we're going to implement the law and not try to expand the mandate or influence competition, if you will.
All right. Great. We're basically running out of time. So I appreciate your time up here. For those interested, we're going to Richardson for the breakout, and we'll meet those of you who are interested here shortly. Thank you.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
TransUnion — 45th Annual William Blair Growth Stock Conference
Finanzdaten von TransUnion
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Mär '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 4.726 4.726 |
11 %
11 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 1.946 1.946 |
14 %
14 %
41 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 2.780 2.780 |
9 %
9 %
59 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 1.337 1.337 |
12 %
12 %
28 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 1.443 1.443 |
6 %
6 %
31 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 588 588 |
8 %
8 %
12 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 855 855 |
5 %
5 %
18 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 705 705 |
92 %
92 %
15 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen USD.
Nichts mehr verpassen! Wir senden Dir alle News zur TransUnion-Aktie direkt und kostenlos in Deine Mailbox.
Auf Wunsch erhältst Du jeden Morgen pünktlich zum Frühstück eine E-Mail, die alle für Dich relevanten Aktien-News enthält.
TransUnion Aktie News
Firmenprofil
TransUnion engagiert sich in der Bereitstellung von Informations- und Risikomanagementlösungen. Außerdem stellt sie Unternehmen Verbraucherberichte, Risikobewertungen, analytische Dienstleistungen und Entscheidungsfindungskapazitäten zur Verfügung. Sie ist in den folgenden Segmenten tätig: U.S. Information Services (USIS), International, Consumer Interactive und Corporate. Das USIS-Segment stellt Unternehmen Verbraucherberichte, Risikobewertungen, analytische Dienstleistungen und Entscheidungsfindungskapazitäten zur Verfügung. Das Segment International bietet Kreditberichte, Analyse- und Entscheidungsfindungsdienste und andere Mehrwertdienste für das Risikomanagement. Das Segment Consumer Interactive bietet Lösungen an, die Verbrauchern helfen, ihre persönlichen Finanzen zu verwalten und Vorkehrungen gegen Identitätsdiebstahl zu treffen. Das Segment Corporate bietet Unterstützungsdienste für jedes Segment, hält Investitionen und führt Unternehmensfunktionen aus. Das Unternehmen wurde am 15. Februar 2012 gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Chicago, IL.
aktien.guide Premium
| Hauptsitz | USA |
| CEO | Mr. Cartwright |
| Mitarbeiter | 13.500 |
| Gegründet | 1968 |
| Webseite | www.transunion.com |


