Toronto-Dominion Bank Aktienkurs
Insights zu Toronto-Dominion Bank
Insights
Mit KI besser investieren
aktien.guide Unlimited – alle Details der KI-Analysen
👉 Detailliertere Insights
👉 Exklusive Einblicke in Chancen & Risiken
👉 Klare Antworten auf deine Fragen
Mit KI besser investieren
aktien.guide Unlimited – alle Details der KI-Analysen
👉 Detailliertere Insights
👉 Exklusive Einblicke in Chancen & Risiken
👉 Klare Antworten auf deine Fragen
Mit KI besser investieren
aktien.guide Unlimited – alle Details der KI-Analysen
👉 Detailliertere Insights
👉 Exklusive Einblicke in Chancen & Risiken
👉 Klare Antworten auf deine Fragen
Mit KI besser investieren
aktien.guide Unlimited – alle Details der KI-Analysen
👉 Detailliertere Insights
👉 Exklusive Einblicke in Chancen & Risiken
👉 Klare Antworten auf deine Fragen
Ist Toronto-Dominion Bank eine Topscorer-Aktie nach der Dividenden-, High-Growth-Investing- oder Levermann-Strategie?
Als kostenloser aktien.guide Basis-Nutzer kannst Du die Scores zu allen 7.608 weltweiten Aktien einsehen.
aktien.guide Premium
aktien.guide Unlimited
Kennzahlen
📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 285,95 Mrd. C$ | Umsatz (TTM) = 63,17 Mrd. C$
Marktkapitalisierung = 285,95 Mrd. C$ | Umsatz erwartet = 63,56 Mrd. C$
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 557,08 Mrd. C$ | Umsatz (TTM) = 63,17 Mrd. C$
Enterprise Value = 557,08 Mrd. C$ | Umsatz erwartet = 63,56 Mrd. C$
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Toronto-Dominion Bank Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
23 Analysten haben eine Toronto-Dominion Bank Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
23 Analysten haben eine Toronto-Dominion Bank Prognose abgegeben:
Beta Toronto-Dominion Bank Events
🇩🇪 Neu: Alle Transkripte jetzt auch auf Deutsch verfügbar!
Abonniere Premium, um Transkripte und KI-Zusammenfassungen auf Deutsch zu lesen.
Vergangene Events
|
MAI
28
Q2 2026 Earnings Call
vor 27 Tagen
|
|
APR
16
Dominion Bank - Shareholder/Analyst Call - The Toronto-Dominion Bank
vor 2 Monaten
|
|
MÄR
24
24th Annual Financial Services Conference
vor 3 Monaten
|
|
MÄR
11
RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Institutions Conference 2026
vor 3 Monaten
|
|
FEB
26
Q1 2026 Earnings Call
vor 4 Monaten
|
|
JAN
6
RBC Capital Markets Canadian Bank CEO Conference
vor 6 Monaten
|
|
DEZ
4
Q4 2025 Earnings Call
vor 7 Monaten
|
|
SEP
29
Dominion Bank - Analyst/Investor Day - The Toronto-Dominion Bank
vor 9 Monaten
|
|
SEP
9
Barclays 23rd Annual Global Financial Services Conference
vor 10 Monaten
|
|
SEP
3
2025 Scotiabank Financials Summit
vor 10 Monaten
|
|
AUG
28
Q3 2025 Earnings Call
vor 10 Monaten
|
aktien.guide Basis
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the TD Bank Group Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.
I would now like to turn the meeting over to Ms. Brooke Hales, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Hales.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to TD Bank Group's Second Quarter 2026 Results Presentation. We will begin today's presentation with remarks from Raymond Chun, the bank's CEO; followed by Leo Salom, Group Head, U.S. Banking; after which Kelvin Tran, the bank's CFO, will present our second quarter operating results. Ajai Bambawale, Chief Risk Officer, will then offer comments on credit quality, after which we will invite questions from analysts on the phone. Also present today to answer your questions are Sona Mehta, Group Head, Canadian Personal Banking; Barbara Hooper, Group Head, Canadian Business Banking; Paul Clark, Group Head, Wealth Management and Insurance; and Tim Wiggan, Group Head of Wholesale Banking.
Please turn to the next slide. Our comments during this call may contain forward-looking statements which involve assumptions and have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially. I would also remind listeners that the bank uses non-GAAP financial measures to arrive at adjusted results. The bank believes that adjusted results provide readers with a better understanding of how management views the bank's performance. Ray, Leo and Kelvin will be referring to adjusted results in their remarks. Additional information about non-GAAP measures and material factors and assumptions is available in our Q2 2026 MD&A.
Please turn to the next slide. I will now hand the presentation over to Ray.
Thank you, Brooke, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. In Q2, the bank delivered a strong quarter, reflecting continued momentum across our businesses and structural cost reduction.
EPS was up 21% year-over-year and ROE was 14.4%, up over 200 basis points year-over-year. TD is executing against the strategies and targets that we shared at Investor Day. In fact, in many cases, we're ahead of schedule. The bank is on track to outperform its 6% to 8% EPS growth and 13% ROE targets for fiscal 2026 provided that the current macroeconomic conditions continue. Strong revenue performance this quarter was driven by momentum in our market-driven businesses, margin expansion and volume growth in Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking. Impaired PCLs declined quarter-over-quarter, reflecting strong credit performance an update to our macroeconomic outlook resulted in a performing reserve build this quarter. We continue to expect total PCLs of 40 to 50 basis points in fiscal 2026.
TD delivered positive operating leverage for the fourth consecutive quarter. Excluding variable compensation, FX in the U.S. strategic cards portfolio, expenses were up 3% year-over-year. We are well on our way to achieve our 3% to 4% expense growth target for fiscal 2026. The bank is driving structural cost reductions enabling the team to deliver the smallest expense growth since 2022, while at the same time, accelerating investments across AI, innovation and frontline talent. Today, we announced a $0.04 dividend increase, bringing our dividend to $1.12 per share, reflecting confidence in TD's future growth and earnings power. The bank's CET1 ratio was 14.3%, with strong organic capital accretion offset by consistent share repurchases. It's been 8 months since TD's Investor Day. We see strong momentum across our businesses and unparalleled opportunities to take market share on both sides of the border. TD remains committed to completing our $7 billion share buyback program.
Please turn to Slide 3. Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking delivered record Q2 revenue, PTPP and earnings. In real estate secured lending, volumes grew 5% year-over-year. This disciplined growth is anchored in our strategy of speed and specialization. The bank has the largest portfolio of active credit cards and added the most cards in the market based on the annual Nielsen report. We again achieved record penetration rates for consumer and small business credit cards, coupled with strong credit quality. In the Business Bank, loans were up 7% year-over-year driven by distribution expansion and broad-based momentum. Our clients continue to demonstrate resilience through macroeconomic uncertainty.
In TD Auto Finance, we were proud to be recognized again this year by J.D. Power with the highest rank in dealer satisfaction. In U.S. banking, AML remediation remains our top priority. You will hear more about our continued progress from Leo. The business is also building towards sustainable growth, with increases in core loans expected to be more than offsetting balance sheet runoff beginning next quarter. We saw that momentum accelerated in Q2 with core business loans up 1.2% sequentially. This quarter, middle market lending balances were up 13% year-over-year in U.S. proprietary credit card balances were up 18% year-over-year, driven by strong acquisition. And in our U.S. wealth business, record mass affluent sales drove double-digit asset growth year-over-year.
As we shared at Investor Day, U.S. banking has significant opportunities to accelerate commercial loan growth, scale our cards franchise and deepen U.S. wealth relationships, delivering substantial upside to the bank's earnings over the medium term. Wealth Management and Insurance delivered record earnings and assets. We continue to drive innovation in TD Direct Investing Canada's #1 digital investing platform. TD is the only Canadian bank to offer partial share ownership. With as little as $1, clients can now invest in some of the biggest companies in the world, bringing down barriers and creating new opportunities for Canadians.
This quarter, we launched a fully redesigned TD Easy Trade. The app offers market-leading capabilities, 100 free trades helping to widen the gap to peers in direct investing. With this launch, the bank is positioned to continue to serve the next generation of investors. We continue to take share in ETFs with assets more than doubling since the end of fiscal 2024. We are well on our way to achieving our medium-term target of $54 billion in ETF assets. And in insurance, we continue to build on our position as Canada's leading digital direct insurer with over 80% of our clients digitally engaged, strong progress towards our Investor Day target of 90% plus.
Wholesale Banking delivered record earnings this quarter, supported by strong client activity across Global Markets and Corporate Investment Banking. Broad-based momentum across our platform enabled the business to earn through the almost $200 million in revenue from the Schwab transaction in Q2 last year. The team continued to execute against the strategies we laid out in Investor Day and placed in the top 10 in the U.S. equity and equity-linked lead tables calendar year-to-date. Clients are entrusting TD security with their largest and most complex transactions as they navigate the evolving macroeconomic environment.
Please turn to Slide 4. We continue to make progress against our strategy to deepen relationships, make TD simpler and faster and execute with discipline. This quarter, the Canadian Personal Bank delivered almost $9 billion in closed referrals to wealth, double-digit growth year-over-year and well on our way to achieving our medium-term target. Within wealth itself, TD has an unparalleled pipeline from direct investing to advice. This quarter alone, direct investing referred $1.5 billion to advice, up 42% year-over-year, positioning TD to capture assets through the significant intergenerational wealth transfer currently underway.
In Canada, we continue to invest in our small business banking franchise and attract clients, with net client acquisition up 15% year-over-year in the first half of 2026. Effective next week, we are moving our small business banking franchise, the Canadian Personal Banking. Almost 90% of small business clients also do their personal banking with TD. This realignment will enable TD to deliver simpler and faster for our small business banking clients, the backbone of the Canadian economy. Across the bank, we have a clear strategy that is driving higher ROE. This quarter, U.S. banking and wholesale banking ROEs were up 130 basis points and 360 basis points year-over-year, respectively. As I said last quarter, TD may achieve its medium-term ROE target faster than we expected at Investor Day.
Please turn to Slide 5. At our Investor Day, we shared targets to take out $2 billion to $2.5 billion in structural costs and generate $1 billion in annualized value from AI over the medium term. We have strong momentum and are tracking ahead of pace on both targets. Across the bank, structural cost reductions are fueling accelerated investments in innovation and AI. TD is and will continue to be a leader in AI. I believe AI will transform our operations, make our colleagues more efficient, our processes faster and our products and services better. We're already seeing it across our businesses.
In RESL, we reduced mortgage pre-adjudication cycle time from approximately 15 hours to 3 minutes using a agentic AI. In insurance, TD continues to innovate. We set a new industry standard for AI adoption in Canada, becoming the first home and auto insurer to launch a client-facing generative AI virtual assistant. And across the bank, we have over 40,000 colleagues using Copilot and over 7,000 engineers using AI for software development was with the most active achieving a 29% increase in throughput. TD is increasingly emphasizing AI opportunities that transform end-to-end experiences, drive lower unit costs and are scalable across the enterprise. We see significant opportunities across credit, contact centers, fraud and frontline productivity among other focus areas. We are tracking well ahead of pace on our target to deliver $200 million in value from AI this year. At the halfway mark, we have already delivered almost $145 million in value across predictive, generative and agentic AI use cases.
Please turn to Slide 6. For the fourth consecutive year, TD was named the most valuable brand in Canada by Brand Finance. TD was also recently ranked #1 on LinkedIn's list of the top 25 best Canadian companies to work for. These incredible accomplishments reflect the dedication and commitment of our colleagues across the bank. Thank you for continuing to deliver for our clients and shareholders every day.
Now before I hand it over to Leo, I'd like to take a moment to honor the memory of Richard M. Thompson. He was one of TD's true architects, dedicating more than 4 decades to our organization, rising to become Chairman and CEO. It was under his leadership, TD launched the first bank-owned self-directed brokerage in Canada, laying the groundwork for today's TD Direct Investing. TD Securities roots can also be traced back to his time leading the bank. They care deeply about TD, its clients, its colleagues and the community. His impact will be felt for generations to come.
With that, I will hand it over to you, Leo.
Great. Thank you, Ray. As we enter the latter half of fiscal 2026, we continue to make good progress on our AML remediation program. This quarter, with respect to the look-back activities required under the OCC and FinCEN consent orders the third-party vendor has now completed its first population of look-back reviews. While there's more work to do in the coming months, I'm encouraged by the progress being made on this very important deliverable.
Turning to our AML platforms and systems. As you've heard me speak about in prior quarters, our AML program is now running on a new transaction monitoring system that has an embedded machine learning and AI enhancements, we've streamlined and improved our investigative practices and last quarter, we deployed our new KYC strategic platform. This foundational work has resulted in measurable residual risk reduction as our processes continue to mature. Notably, this quarter, we embedded an improved customer risk rating model into our KYC platform, which provides us with more accurate, timely and consistent risk assessments across our entire client population. We also continue to focus on improving our operational systems to enable frontline staff to complete critical AML tests with greater efficiency. Specifically this quarter, we updated our onboarding systems for money service businesses, providing our colleagues with the ability to sustainably identify, detect and manage these types of businesses going forward.
Finally, we made an important enhancement to our financial crime risk management training program with the introduction of enhanced controls, which provide detailed insights into training effectiveness, completion metrics and workforce readiness, all of which are important elements of a sustainable training program. From a financial perspective, the composition of our AML remediation spend has begun to shift towards validation and sustainability costs as management implementation expenses have started to moderate on a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis. We expect that trend to continue with overall AML remediation costs moderating in the second half of the year, largely in line with the previous guidance of $500 million in fiscal 2026.
With that, I'll turn it over to Kelvin.
Thank you, Leo. Please turn to Slide 8. TD delivered a strong quarter with momentum across our businesses. Through the TD Cowen acquisition, and as you heard on Investor Day, we are taking deliberate strategic action to diversify the bank's business mix. We saw the benefits of that strategy play out this quarter, with strength in our market-driven businesses, margin expansion and volume growth in Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking delivering robust top line growth.
At 43 basis points, total PCLs were within our guided range and flat quarter-over-quarter. Expenses increased 5% year-over-year with approximately 2% driven by variable compensation, foreign exchange and the impact of the U.S. strategic cards portfolio. We delivered our fourth consecutive quarter of positive operating leverage. We made significant progress on our structural cost reductions, enabling accelerated investments in business growth. Total bank PTPP was up 12% year-over-year after removing the impact of the U.S. strategic cards portfolio, FX and insurance service expenses. We've shared the details on Slide 23.
Please turn to Slide 9. Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking delivered record Q2 revenue, PTPP and earnings. Average deposits rose 3% year-over-year, reflecting 1% growth in personal deposits and 5% growth in business deposits. We had a strong RSP season, including record closed referrals from the Canadian personal bank to our wealth business. Average loan volumes rose 6% year-over-year with 5% growth in personal volumes and 7% growth in business volume. Strong business loan growth reflected continued investment in our frontline bankers and execution against our local advice-focused model. Net interest margin was relatively stable, up 2 basis points sequentially. As we look forward to Q3, based on the current rate and competitive market dynamics, we again expect net interest margin to be relatively stable, similar to this quarter's results. Expenses rose 2% year-over-year and benefited from some timing impacts.
Please turn to Slide 10. In U.S. Banking, Earnings were up 12% year-over-year and ROTCE expanded by over 200 basis points to 14.8%. Excluding sweeps and targeted runoff in our government banking business, deposits were up 1% year-over-year. Deposit costs declined quarter-over-quarter, reflecting our strategic pullback on certain higher cost deposits, and the strength of our non-term deposit -- non-term personal deposits and operating business deposit franchises. Core loans grew 3% year-over-year driven by accelerated momentum across our portfolio. New bank card account acquisition was up 32% year-over-year and TD Auto Finance delivered record Q2 originations. We also saw a 17% year-over-year increase in middle market lending commitments and our home equity lending pipeline remains robust. Net interest margin was 3.41%, up 3 basis points quarter-over-quarter driven by higher loan and deposit margins. As we look forward to Q3, we expect net interest margin to modestly increase.
Expenses increased 10% year-over-year reflecting higher governance and control investments and spend supporting business growth initiatives, including the conversion of Nordstrom credit card clients on to TD's servicing platform. There is no change to our guidance for fiscal 2026 overall expense growth in the mid-single-digit range and approximately USD 2.9 billion in net income for the U.S. Banking segment. As we shared on our Q1 call, in February, we converted Nordstrom card clients on to TD's servicing platform. The conversion was completed smoothly and marked an important strategic milestone that provides scale and as we build out our credit card franchise and opens opportunities to pursue new strategic partnerships and drive down unit costs over time.
Slide 22 provides an illustrative example of the accounting for our strategic cards portfolio. As a result of the Nordstrom change and consistent with similar transactions, the receivable adjustment of USD 144 million was treated as an item of note in Q2. Please turn to Slide 11. Wealth Management and Insurance again delivered record earnings and assets. In [indiscernible] we had new account growth of 15% year-over-year, driven by 16% account growth in TD Direct Investing. Trades per day were up 11% year-over-year as clients continue to engage across our platform. Insurance delivered record earnings, reflecting disciplined claims management and accelerated structural cost reduction. Sequentially, expenses for this segment, excluding variable compensation, were relatively flat. We are driving structural cost savings while investing for the future, including accelerated distribution expansion.
Please turn to Slide 12. Wholesale Banking delivered record earnings driven by strong execution across global markets and corporate and investment banking, including strength in our equities, capital markets and lending businesses. Our performance reflects the depth and diversification of the platform combined with high levels of client activity and constructive market conditions. Expenses increased 6% year-over-year as we continue to invest in talent and technology. Return on equity for the quarter was 14.5%, an improvement of 360 basis points year-over-year, driven by strong revenue growth moderating expense growth and disciplined capital management.
Please turn to Slide 13. Corporate net loss for the quarter was $166 million, relatively flat to the same quarter last year. Please turn to Slide 14. The common equity Tier 1 ratio ended the quarter at 14.3%, down 26 basis points sequentially. We delivered strong organic capital accretion again this quarter. The bank repurchased approximately 19 million common shares under its share buyback program in Q2, which reduced CET1 by 41 basis points. TD's capital position is a competitive advantage. As Ray shared, the bank remains committed to completing a $7 billion share buyback. Upon completion of this program, and together with our previous share buyback, we will have returned $15 billion in capital to our shareholders.
And with that, I will turn it over to Ajai.
Thank you, Kelvin, and good morning, everyone. The bank exhibited continued strong credit performance this quarter. Please turn to Slide 15. Gross impaired loan formations were 22 basis points, a decrease of 5 basis points or $457 million quarter-over-quarter. The decrease was largely recorded in the wholesale and U.S. commercial lending portfolios, partially offset by an increase in Canadian commercial.
Please turn to Slide 16. Gross impaired loans decreased 4 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 54 basis points, reflecting lower impairments in wholesale and U.S. banking segments, partially offset by an increase in Canadian personal and commercial. Please turn to Slide 17. Recall that our presentation reports PCL ratios, both gross and net of the partner share of the U.S. strategic card PCL. We remind you that U.S. card PCL's recorded in the corporate segment are fully absorbed by our partners and do not impact the bank's net income. The bank's provision for credit losses was 43 basis points, stable quarter-over-quarter as lower provisions in the wholesale and corporate segments were partially offset by an increase in Canadian personal and commercial and U.S. banking.
Please turn to Slide 18. Impaired PCLs were $973 million, decreasing $191 million quarter-over-quarter, reflecting lower provisions in the wholesale, U.S. banking and corporate segments, partially offset by an increase in Canadian commercial. The bank recorded a performing PCL of $28 million, largely related to an update to the macroeconomic outlook, partially offset by migration of performing reserves to impaired in the Wholesale segment. Please turn to Slide 19. The allowance for credit losses decreased $147 million quarter-over-quarter due to lower impaired allowance in wholesale banking driven by resolutions, partially offset by performing build largely related to an update to the macroeconomic outlook.
Now I'd like to spend a few minutes discussing 2 key risk topics. First is private credit and private equity. We've added a slide in our appendix detailing a breakdown of our gross loans to the financial sector. TD's exposure to private credit and equity is small at approximately 1% of total bank gross loans and is primarily concentrated in subscription of capital call facilities. Our exposure is low risk, primarily investment grade and does not pose a material concern for the bank as it continues to perform well with no watch list or impaired loans. Second is the geopolitical environment and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. We have not realized material impacts on credit performance to date. We have, however, added some performing reserves this quarter to reflect deterioration in our economic outlook and the uncertainty related to the duration and impact of the war.
We will continue to carefully monitor potential impacts of the heightened risk environment on our credit portfolios and take suitable actions if warranted. With that, let me summarize the quarter. The bank exhibited strong credit performance as evidenced by lower gross impaired loans and gross impaired loan formations and stable PCL. Additionally, we continue to be prudently reserved at 97 basis points of allowance coverage, while results may vary by quarter and are subject to changes to economic conditions, we continue to expect fiscal 2026 PCLs to fall within a range of 40 to 50 basis points.
With that operator, we are now ready to begin the Q&A session.
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala with BofA Securities.
2. Question Answer
So I guess, maybe, Ajai, starting with you on credit quality, [indiscernible] on the PCL guidance. Just give us a sense, when we think about -- you probably have among of all the banks like the best sense of what's happening with the consumer, the sort of dynamic with high unemployment rates going higher. As we look through the next 6 months and beyond, do you think generally credit and at least the early indicators that you see suggest that credit sense for the Canadian consumer book are moving in the right direction? Or do you expect further worsening? And with the endpoint being unclear in terms of when we actually see some of the peaking on delinquency, GILs, et cetera?
Yes. Again, there's quite a few things there, Ebrahim, but let me answer your question comprehensively. Let me start with what I expect. Okay. First, I should remind you that we affirmed the bank's guidance. What I do expect is some pressure on PCLs because of 3 reasons: trade and tariff actions, potential impacts of the Middle East war and the macro environment, particularly in Canada. If you think about trade and tariffs, TD Bank is already well provisioned. We have close to $500 million there, and most of that reserve is unused. With respect to the Middle East war I'd call it a watch item.
Having said that, what we did this quarter is we put more weight on our downside case, and we have already built some incremental Brazil. So we are going to continue to reassess our reserves each quarter, but I feel quite comfortable that at 97 bps we're well positioned on reserves. As I mentioned, we still have that $500 million, and we have a lot of financial flexibility. If I turn to the second part of your question, which is on Canadian consumers, I'd start by saying household debt in Canada is high. But if you look at how the Canadian consumer has done, they've been very resilient. The reason they've been very resilient is a few things. One, rates are down, okay? If you look at where rates peaked, rates are down 275 bps. The second reason I'd offer up is the starting point on wealth is much better than it was pre-pandemic. The third is wage growth and the fourth is ongoing government support.
Having said that, are we seeing some migration in Canadian consumer? The answer is yes. We're seeing it largely in the less than [ 650 ] segment, but it is entirely expected. It's linked to the macro environment. So again, I think you should expect some migration on the Canadian book. We're seeing a little bit of it in resi. We're seeing a bit of it in auto. We're seeing a bit of it in cards. But overall, I think credit is still in good shape. Yes, there are some uncertainties. We'll continue to watch them. we'll reassess them through our process. But at 97 bps, including $500 million for trade and tariffs, I think the bank is very well provisioned. So hopefully, I gave you enough context, Ebrahim.
No, that's good context and very comprehensive. And I guess one for you, Ray. AI is going to transform the bank, like you've talked a lot in terms of the details and how TD is deploying AI. As we look forward, I mean, I think you obviously laid out some ROE targets at the Investor Day, you're running ahead of those. As we look forward, like do you think is it unreasonable to assume that TD despite its business mix, having more U.S. exposure could actually become a much profitable bank than what we are historically used to? And even in terms of as we think about the time line to achieve some of your investor day targets, are you feeling better about them today than you did on the day off?
Thanks, Ebrahim, for the question. So let me tackle that in a few different buckets. Let me start with the Investor Day. And I think it was about 8 months ago, certainly feels a little bit longer than that. But as I've said for the last number of quarters, we continue to have momentum and we are ahead of the vast majority of the metrics and the medium-term outlook that we had set at Investor Day, all the businesses are ahead of their targets. And so we feel very good not only in achieving them, but achieving them sooner.
If I look at our ROE target and ROE being up 200 basis points year-on-year at 14.4%, if I look at just us going from our current CET1 ratio of 14.3% down to 13%, that picks up another 90 basis points of ROE. And then if you look at our expense management or a structural cost reduction from $2 billion to $2.5 billion, that adds another [ 110 ] basis points. And so when you look at that, that's about 200 basis points of ROE pickup, and that's all within our control. And I think that's what really gives us a lot of confidence that we can get to Certainly, our ROE targets ahead of what we had anticipated at Investor Day, assuming macroeconomic conditions remain.
On the structural cost reduction, which has been a critical focus for us, leveraging AI, automation, process redesign, we set a goal of $2 billion to $2.5 billion. What I can tell you, Ebrahim, is we are well ahead of pace. Our goal for this year was to have $900 million of structural cost reduction, and we have already achieved that. And so on that side, we think there's upside. And on the $1 billion AI objective that we set out, $500 million in expense reduction, $500 million in productivity or revenue, we definitely see, as we've gotten more and more into the agentic AI and generate predictive AI. We definitely see more upside to the $1 billion goal that we had set.
So coming back to your question, do we think that we're -- that we can do more than what we had put on the Investor Day? We believe we're ahead of pace. We have momentum right across all of our lines of businesses. And I think that's setting us up well for accelerated growth on a go-forward basis.
The next question comes from Gabriel Dechaine with National Bank Financial.
First, on the -- well, a couple of angles here in the U.S. The expenses, they were up quite a bit. I know you gave some explanation, but let's just revisit that indulge me. And what stands out as the AML cost, $173 million, that's ahead of the $500 million annual kind of figure. Was there a mention of some sort of a third-party agreement that's no longer going to be costing you money or something like that?
Well, Gabe, thanks very much for the question. Let me start by saying that I think the quarter was a solid quarter for the U.S. I came in and that was up 12% on a year-on-year basis. And if you break down the factors, we had positive core loan growth. We had moderate NIM expansion. And as Ajai described, I think PCL performance in the U.S. was quite strong.
So expenses were somewhat elevated at 9.9% on a year-on-year basis. But I would note that it was flat on a quarter-on-quarter basis, and it's the third quarter that we had relatively the same expense. Despite the fact, to your point, we did have higher governance and control expenses in the quarter. And I think composition matters here. We're seeing more -- as I'd indicated in previous quarters, we would expect to start seeing more validation look back and monitor expenses this year and less remediation implementation expenses, and that's exactly what we saw in the quarter. So that was somewhat elevated. The other important milestone in the quarter was that we completed the conversion of Nordstrom. And so we had higher conversion and operating expense that we assumed as part of that transaction.
So if you isolate those 2 categories, our base operating expenses were below 3%. So I feel like we're making some really good progress in terms of moderating the rate of growth I should -- let me just reaffirm that we still believe that we will achieve our mid-single-digit expense growth guidance for the year. In fact, we've got good line of sight to being able to achieve that. And more importantly, I think we're tracking really well to meet and/or exceed our NIAT objective that we laid out in Investor Day. So net-net, I'm feeling good at where we are Obviously, any opportunity that I've got to accelerate the remediation process. It is my #1 priority. We're trying to work through it as quickly as possible because we know how important that is to the overall franchise.
Yes, I get that. I wasn't taking the number. Just trying to get a sense of the -- I guess, additional elements this quarter that might not be around in coming quarters, as that cost mine kind of does drift down sequentially. But I guess more on the strategic side, as you move -- and I appreciate that AML remediation is your #1 priority. But as you move through the process and maybe increased bandwidth for growth initiatives, it sounds like there's some improvement in the core commercial banking loan book. You're open, it sounds to exploring new strategic card partnerships. I want to get a sense for how you're thinking about the growth aspect of the business at this point and what we can look forward to?
Yes, Gabe, thank you very much for the question. I think the quarter did highlight the fact that we are seeing acceleration in a number of different areas. I know Kelvin described a little bit of the loan growth. But I just wanted to call out maybe a couple of stats. One, you've been talking about the fact that total loan growth was going to turn the corner. Well, on a spot basis, total loan growth this quarter versus last quarter was in fact positive. So that's the first quarter that we've seen that since we embarked on the balance sheet restructuring exercise. So that's that was a step in the right direction, and we would expect to build on that momentum in the subsequent quarters.
If I look at core loan growth, core loan growth was 3% for the quarter and it was really well distributed across both our consumer lending portfolios as well as commercial loans. I'll talk about consumer loans just for a moment. We saw a number of our businesses, particularly the bank card business that was -- where we saw overall balances up 18% and 32% growth in account sales. We're seeing real positive momentum there. We've been investing in that business over the past 3 years, and we're beginning to see the fruits of some of those investments. I'd say turning to commercial. I was particularly pleased about the quarter-on-quarter performance in commercial.
Overall, growth was 1.2% for the quarter. So if you annualize that, that would suggest a mid-single-digit growth rate for our commercial businesses. But probably more important than just the absolute number was the composition. We've been seeing really strong performance in sort of the middle market segment for some time. What we saw this quarter was stronger performance in both small business and our commercial regional businesses. So it was a slightly broader base win this quarter, and I think that's quite encouraging. I do think that given the work that we're doing, to your point, the fact that we're increasing the number of bankers on the street supporting our commercial banking business, I do expect us to see some degree of acceleration in that business. There's obviously some macroeconomic factors that you can't control, and there's still risk of trade and supply chain disruptions. But generally speaking, I'm really confident about what I'm seeing in terms of some of the pipelines and some of the leading indicators.
Okay. And Ray, I heard you say it felt like a long time since an Investor Day, I thought time was supposed to fly when you're having fun. All right. That's all folks. Have a good day.
The next question comes from Paul Holden with CIBC Capital Markets.
I want to ask a question on the expense guide. So I think, Kelvin, you're pretty clear in terms of core expense growth was pretty good this quarter. I think 2% if we adjust for some FX and variable comp so better than the mid-single-digit guidance, but then you kind of stuck with the mid-single-digit guidance for the full year. So maybe you can talk about some of the things that were timing related and why that will come back next quarter. And I would have thought, given what Ray has said on being ahead of plan on AI that maybe there was some upside to expenses and efficiencies this year. So maybe you can help us think through all of that.
Paul, maybe I'll just kick off and then Kelvin can jump in. Paul, I just want to clarify, the mid-single-digit guidance is specific to the U.S. the guidance that we have for -- at the enterprise level, and we have confidence in that is 3% to 4%. And so we don't see -- there's nothing that we see as a onetime that's creating the our expense this quarter. And so we see the structural cost reductions that we've been making across all of our business lines continuing. And as we accelerate our value from AI and automation. I think you're going to see, as I've been saying previously, that we try to continue to take the structural cost run rate of the organization down consistently on a unit cost basis. And so you're seeing that play through. and you'll continue to see that play through, Paul. So I just wanted to clarify the mid-single digit is U.S., not enterprise.
Yes. That's right. It's Kelvin here, our guidance for 2026, expense growth, FX and variable compensation and strategic comfort 3% to 4% so this quarter, we're at 3%. Q1 was higher than that. And so just on an average basis, we'll get to that range for the full year. And we're confident that we'll get there.
Okay. My mistake I understand. And then maybe just a quick one for Sona. Increasingly hearing about some increased competition maybe on the loan side and also on the deposit side, sort of pressuring margins a bit. What are you seeing in your business specifically and your confidence around the ability to sort of maintain margins in Canadian retail banking?
Okay. Thanks for that question, Paul. So if we look at the quarter, we were up in CAD PNC 2 bps sequentially, in line with our NIM guidance. And really, that's broken down in a couple of factors. We saw some positive trends on deposit margins, including tractor repricing as well as driving higher loan margins. And so let me talk a little bit at what you're getting to. So in the market, we definitely did see in the second quarter, particularly competitive pricing set in. But Paul, as you've heard me say, we are firmly committed to profitable growth. And for us, that means disciplined pricing. And so as we anchor in this principle, we've nonetheless had 5% year-over-year RESL growth. And that's because we are with our disciplined pricing, we are able to drive positive on off margin, including in this competitive quarter.
And so as we look ahead, we expect to see relatively stable NIM in Q3 similar to this quarter. And I'm even optimistic for some potential NIM upside in Q4. And if I just step back, Paul, I think -- and picking up off what Ray said earlier, I think we're out to capture organic growth upside. We see tremendous momentum across the businesses. Obviously, we're pleased with in RESL, how we're leaning in, competing on speed and specialization rather than price. But across the board, we see momentum. We've had #1 year-over-year growth in RESL in cards and in deposits. So we're particularly pleased with the quarter and proud of our team's work.
The next question comes from Matthew Lee with Canaccord Genuity.
Most of my questions have been answered, but maybe one on cards. You did highlight strong acquisition and record penetration U.S. bank card balance their up and obviously the Nordstrom conversion onto TD's platform. Just how are you thinking about cards in general as the growth engine, especially balancing kind of position, credit normalization and maybe potential new strategic partnership.
Yes. Matt, thanks for the question. I'll start on the U.S. side, and maybe I'll pass it to Sona to add something from a Canadian perspective. I think from a U.S. business, we're somewhat underweight in terms of total cards in our overall book. So it is a segment that it's a product that we're very focused on. And it's one of the reasons why 3 years ago, we embarked on a really comprehensive build. We added significant talent. We retooled our cards operations. We retooled the product lineup. We changed some of our credit underwriting.
In fact, we implemented a number of AI models that allow us to be able to leverage deposit activity to be able to fine-tune some of our targeting. All those things are culminating in the performance that you're seeing today on the bank card side of the house. So I absolutely want to grow our bank card one of the Investor Day targets that we established was to get to a 30% penetration of our deposit book. And quite frankly, Matt, I'd like to exceed that. In fact, we're tracking quite well. We picked up 200 basis points on a year-on-year basis. So clearly, we want to try to maximize the growth of our core bank card business. But I also -- I'm thrilled about the successful conversion of the Nordstrom transaction being partnered with one of the premier retailers in the U.S. marketplace is a privilege. And to the extent that we can deepen our relationship with Target and potentially bolt-on other really high-quality card partnerships. That will be a priority for us in the future as well.
I'd like to have cards receivables be a larger portion of the overall hold. And to your point, we're cognizant about the risk profile. But I can tell you, based on what we're seeing at this point, we're quite comfortable with the credit risk that, that portfolio represents. And I think in many ways, being able to build a bigger cards business as part of our overall U.S. balance sheet will actually improve NIM and will improve our overall diversification in terms of our asset earnings. So net-net, it's a long-winded way of saying it's a big priority for us in the U.S. So...
Yes. Maybe just briefly, Matt, really strong story north of the border as well in our cards business. We've had a strong cards acquisition, up double digits year-over-year, and it's really driving to continued momentum towards our Investor Day targets on depth of relationship, both for personal consumer cards as well as small business banking clients. What I'm particularly pleased with is it's exactly growing in the spots that we would want it to grow. So we've had a really thoughtful execution playbook against how do we really increase the depth of relationship within our existing clients. And so most of our growth year-over-year is actually coming from strong preapproval conversion amongst our existing clients. So are the clients we know the most about and very additive, right, from a quality book perspective.
And then on the flip side, with our new to banking clients. We've seen continued momentum in deepening that relationship at point of sale in our branches. So really healthy mix and really healthy growth, supporting our #1 position in the industry this year.
The next question comes from Doug Young with Desjardins Securities.
I guess for Tim and for Ray here. On wholesale, I mean, I know this is a particularly strong quarter and results are pretty good. But are we -- caught my eye in wholesale of 14.5%. I think you've targeted 13% from the Investor Day. Maybe Tim, you can talk a bit about sustainability. Is there room for further ROE expansion and then what drives this? And Ray, as you look over at that, does that give you more comfort? You've got a lot of excess capital, and I know it's pointed towards organic growth and buybacks and whatnot, but does that give you more comfort deploying capital into capital markets.
So why don't I start and then, Tim, you can jump in after. I would say, first and foremost, very pleased with the continued momentum in TD Securities. And as we said also at Investor Day, what we're trying to do in the organization is balanced or rightsize our NII and fee income. And whether it's our wealth business, our insurance business, which both had record quarters or our wholesale business, getting the fee income mix across TD Bank was a priority for us coming out of Investor Day, and you're seeing exactly that, not just from Tim's business, but from [indiscernible] businesses. And so -- so I'm pleased there.
And before I hand it over to Tim, from a capital perspective, what I would just say is it is an area of the organization that we do believe has outsized opportunity for accelerated growth and Tim and team are demonstrating the power of the platform and the acquisition of TD Cowen and TD Securities combined. And so I would say it's playing along exactly what we thought on a go-forward basis. And then just from a capital perspective, the only thing I would say is I do think we are positioned differently than any other organization amongst our peers that we start with an incredibly strong capital position at 14.3% CET1. But when you overlay our strong organic capital generation that we do here within the organization. It really gives me an advantage that we can deploy capital in different ways.
At the same time, we can do -- continue to do buybacks while we look at not only organic growth opportunities and how do we want to accelerate some of our organic growth opportunities like in TD Security. So it gives me flexibility Doug, to be able to do multiple things that maybe some of our peers can. So on that note, I'll hand it back over to Tim.
Doug, I would just add 2 or 3 things. So it is important to note, despite all the headlines that we are in a constructive market. So from a capital markets perspective, equity capital markets, debt capital markets, credit generally are in a positive place. You've heard me speak before about volatility. I would characterize it as a healthy level, both from the standpoint of being able to monetize volatility on the trading side, while keeping the capital markets open.
And then I would just say, generally, there's an openness to M&A. So as we sit today, it's a constructive environment and quite a healthy backlog. The second point, as Ray mentioned, we've invested heavily in our platform, and we continue to invest. So we're doing more. We're deepening our relationships with our existing clients. And if we look at the first half, that's reflected where we had top line up 18% year-over-year despite the $180 million earned last year from the swap transaction. So very healthy from that perspective. On capital specifically, I would continue to emphasize, we're not capital constrained by any means, but we do need to do more with that resource. So I always like to look at revenue growth relative to RWA growth.
And again, in this quarter, that number was about 3x. The other point I wanted to emphasize is mix. So good balance between corporate and investment banking and global markets. And I think that's reflected as well in the results. but also geography. So directionally, if we look at 2022, which was the last year prior to the Cowen acquisition, we would be doing about [ a quarter ] of our revenue in the U.S. And today, that number is twofold. And of course, it's a market that's about 20x the size of Canada. So we see a tremendous amount of runway. So all of that coming together drove the ROE, 14.5% and the efficiency ratio of 63%. But maybe the last point I wanted to leave you with, there's obviously always cyclicality in our business, but it's about creating durability and repeatability on our platform and positioning ourselves to be able to serve clients and deliver for shareholders through the cycle. And I think that's what you're seeing.
There are no more questions in the queue at this time. I would now like to return the call to Mr. Raymond Chun for closing remarks.
Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate your questions and comments. In Q2, we continued our business momentum with strong credit performance, positive operating leverage and robust earnings growth. ROE was 14.4%, up 200 basis points year-over-year. I'm proud of the progress through the first half of the year, and I'm confident TD will continue to deliver for its stakeholders.
Now before we close the call, like to go a little bit off script for a moment to congratulate Brooke and her team on winning across 5 categories at the IR Impact Awards last month. What an incredible accomplishment reflecting strong engagement with all of you, our investors and analysts. Thank you for your support and congratulations again to Brooke and the team I look forward to connecting with all of you again next quarter. Thanks, everyone.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Solide Q2-Ergebnisse: EPS +21% YoY, ROE 14,4%, Dividendenerhöhung und laufendes $7 Mrd.-Buyback‑Programm bei weiterhin kontrollierten Kreditrisiken.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- EPS: +21% YoY (Ergebnis je Aktie)
- ROE: 14,4% (+200 Basispunkte YoY; Return on Equity)
- PCLs: 43 Basispunkte (Provisionen für Kreditverluste), Guidance FY2026: 40–50 bps
- CET1: 14,3% (Common Equity Tier‑1), Q2‑Buybacks reduzierten CET1 um ~41 bps
- Dividende: +$0,04 auf $1,12/Aktie; Buyback‑Commitment: $7 Mrd. laufend
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Investor‑Day‑Momentum: Viele Zielgrößen (EPS‑Wachstum, ROE) liegen vorzeitig im Plan oder darüber; Management sieht Upside bei schnellerer Zielerreichung.
- AI & Kosten: Strukturelle Kostensenkung von $2–2,5 Mrd. Ziel; AI‑Wertschöpfung mittelfristig $1 Mrd.; bereits ~$145 M im laufenden Jahr erzielt.
- US‑Risikofokus: AML‑Remediation bleibt Priorität; Systems/Trainings/Look‑back‑Arbeiten laufen, Kostenverlagerung zu Validierung/Sustainability erwartet.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- PCL‑Guidance: FY2026 bei 40–50 bps bestätigt; aktuelle Reservendeckung ~97 bps inkl. ~$500 M für Trade/Tariff‑Risiken.
- Expense‑Guidance: Konzernziel 3–4% Expensewachstum FY2026; US‑Segment: mid‑single‑digit; Q3‑Erwartung: stabile kanadische NIM, US‑NIM leichte Steigerung.
- Wachstumserwartung: Bank sagt, sie ist auf Kurs, die Investor‑Day‑Ziele für EPS‑Wachstum (6–8%) und 13% ROE zu übertreffen, sofern makro stabil bleibt.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Kreditqualität: Analysten fragten nach makro‑/Konsumentenrisiken; Management sieht Resilienz, erwartet aber leichte Migration in schwächeren Segmenten (Score <650).
- AML‑Kosten & Timing: Nachfrage nach Höhe und Persistenz der AML‑Ausgaben; Management: Verschiebung zu Validierungskosten, Gesamtkosten FY2026≈$500M, moderat rückläufig H2.
- Wachstumskanäle: Karten (Nordstrom‑Conversion abgeschlossen), Middle‑Market‑Kredite und Wholesale‑Momentum wurden als Haupttreiber für weiteres Gewinnwachstum diskutiert.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: TD zeigt starke operative Dynamik, erreicht positives operating leverage und verbessert ROE; Dividendenerhöhung plus aggressiver Buyback signalisieren Kapitalvertrauen. Wichtige Risiken bleiben AML‑Remediation‑kosten, makro‑/geopolitische Unsicherheit und mögliche Kreditmigrationen; insgesamt positiv für Aktionäre, bei weiterem Augenmerk auf Execution.
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Dominion Bank - Shareholder/Analyst Call - The Toronto-Dominion Bank
1. Management Discussion
Good morning. On behalf of the Toronto-Dominion Bank, I welcome you, shareholders and proxy holders to this annual meeting, whether you are here in person or online on our virtual platform. Thank you for taking the time to attend the meeting and for your continuing interest in and engagement with TD. My name is Tony Di Girolamo, and I am the bank's Corporate Secretary. We thank you for your participation. We care about your views, and we appreciate your trust as shareholders of TD. I acknowledge that the land we are meeting on is the traditional territory of many nations, including the Mississaugas of the Credit, the Anishinaabe, the Chippewa, the Haudenosaunee and the Wendat peoples.
We are thankful for the opportunity to work and live on this land, which today is home to many First Nations, Metis and Inuit peoples. We recognize that the city of Toronto is covered by Treaty 13 signed with the Mississaugas of the Credit and by the Williams Treaties signed with several Mississauga and Chippewa nations. As you continue your personal and professional journey, I invite you to take the time to learn about the indigenous peoples of the lands where you live and work and to reflect on your relationship with them. John MacIntyre, Board Chair, TD Bank Group. [Foreign Language]
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the 2026 TD Bank Annual Meeting of Shareholders. I'm John MacIntyre, Chair of the Board of Directors. I will act as Chair of this meeting as stipulated by the bank's bylaws. I'm joined on the podium by Raymond Chun, Group President and Chief Executive Officer; Simon Fish, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer; and Tony Di Girolamo, who you've met, our Corporate Secretary. Tony, with the consent of the meeting, will serve as Secretary of the meeting. In addition, members of the bank's senior executive team and Board of Directors are available to assist with questions if necessary. Pat Lee and Megan Rocha, representatives of TSX Trust Company, the bank's registrar and transfer agent, will act as scrutineers.
I now call the meeting to order. We previously mailed the notice calling the Annual Meeting of Common Shareholders. We've received confirmation of that mailing from Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions and TSX Trust Company. I direct that a copy of the notice mailed to the shareholders and the other meeting materials delivered to shareholders by notice and access be kept by the Secretary and annexed to the minutes of this meeting. I have received satisfactory proof that the notice calling this meeting was duly publicized and sent to all shareholders of the bank. We have received proxies representing more than 54% of the approximately 1.7 billion outstanding common shares.
Accordingly, we have a quorum present, and I hereby declare the meeting duly and properly constituted. Please note that the discussions during the meeting may contain forward-looking statements about the bank's outlook and objectives and strategies to achieve them. Ray will be referring to non-GAAP financial measures, also known as adjusted results in his remarks of today's meeting. Details regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures are on the slide presented in the room and on the webcast and can be found in the bank's financial reporting. For the duration of today's meeting, I will refer to registered shareholders and duly appointed proxy holders as shareholders and proxy holders.
These shareholders and proxy holders are able to view the meeting, vote their shares and submit questions regardless of their method of participation. Instructions for how to do this, including asking questions, were included in this year's proxy circular. This year, we have enabled question and comment capabilities through the webcast platform with the aim of having our experience for our virtual attendees as interactive as possible. As in past years, both English and French will be spoken during this meeting. Simultaneous translation will be provided in person via the headsets provided. Those joining today via the webcast can select to hear the meeting in either English or French. Shareholders and proxy holders will be able to ask questions verbally in the room and both in writing and verbally through the webcast.
As in past years, we will have a question-and-answer session after the formal business of the meeting is completed. During the formal portion of the meeting, we will pause to address questions and comments submitted by shareholders and proxy holders that are specific to the motions presented during the meeting. We will ask that all general questions be reserved for the question-and-answer period after the completion of the formal portion of the meeting. To ensure that every shareholder and proxy holder can participate, whether they are attending in person or joining via the webcast, we will begin by taking questions from those present in the room, followed by questions submitted through the webcast.
Individuals joining the meeting as guests are not able to ask questions. In each case, we also ask that you identify whether your question relates to a motion being considered as part of the formal business of the meeting or whether it is of a more general nature. We ask that any questions that relate to the business or affairs of the bank restrict to those questions rather than addressing matters of a personal nature. For people in the room, we have a representative from TD Client Care here with us today. Can Sarah Barrow stand and be recognized? In the back corner. If your question is of a personal nature, we will defer your question and ask that you speak with Sarah after the meeting or we will have one of our Client Care representatives get in touch with you after the meeting.
We ask that in-person attendees wait to be recognized by me as Chair before speaking. You will be prompted to approach one of the microphones on the floor at the appropriate time. Before speaking, please state your name and confirm that you are a shareholder or proxy holder before asking the question. For those with limited mobility, please raise your hand and a microphone will be brought to you. We like all our shareholders and proxy holders that wish to ask a question to have the opportunity to do so. To that end, we ask that you please keep your comments brief, limiting yourself to 2 minutes and to the subject under discussion so that all shareholders and proxy holders have an opportunity to participate.
We also request that you only ask one question at a time. If a speaker has an additional question, please requeue at the microphone to allow us to speak with as many shareholders as possible during the meeting. Shareholders and proxy holders who are joining us virtually will be able to submit questions via the webcast by clicking on the questions tab on the webcast page. If you're watching the webcast in full screen, you will need to minimize the video to access the questions tab. Shareholders and proxy holders who wish to submit a question or comment through the webcast platform can do so at any time, and we will address them at the appropriate time. Please indicate whether it relates to a specific motion or whether it is to a more general motion.
For example, if you'd like your question read out before shareholders vote on the advisory vote on executive compensation, please indicate that in your submission, and we will read it out then. If it's a more general question or comment, then we will read it during the general Q&A session following the formal meeting. It's recommended that you submit any questions as soon as possible during the meeting so that they can be addressed at the appropriate time. The ability to submit questions online is not available to individuals who joined the webcast as a guest. The secretary will read out the questions received over the webcast in the original language submitted. Shareholders and proxy holders attending the webcast can also ask questions verbally by entering their phone number in the question text box and indicating the topic of their question.
A representative will then call these individuals to connect their audio and place them in queue to be called upon at the appropriate time. Additional details can be found in the webcast portal. To address as many different questions as possible during the meeting, if we have several questions that are similar in nature, we will group those questions so that they can be addressed together. As in past years, the vast majority of shareholders submitted their proxies or voting instructions in advance of the meeting, but shareholders and proxy holders, whether attending virtually or in person, will also have the opportunity to vote during the meeting.
To keep your vote confidential, proxies are counted and tabulated by the scrutineers. Additional information on how to ask questions, how to vote and the other protocols and procedures being used for today's meeting, along with the agenda for today's meeting are available at TD's Annual Meeting website and the Documents tab of the webcast. In-person attendees were also provided a copy of the agenda on their chairs.
Before I invite Ray to address the meeting, I'd like to make a few comments. When I think back to last year's AGM, I'm proud of what our bank has achieved. I am very proud. Our businesses are performing well and have momentum. Our strong balance sheet remains an important differentiator, and our capital position is well above regulatory requirements. Anti-money laundering program remediation remains the #1 priority of the Board and for management. While this is a multiyear process, we made consistent progress in 2025 and continue to make the investments needed to meet our regulatory obligations and strengthen the bank for the future.
As we advance through this important year, we also created significant shareholder value through buybacks, higher dividends and stronger financial performance. We look ahead with renewed confidence and a clear strategy for the future, building on our strengths to create lasting value for shareholders. Ray will discuss this in more detail very shortly. Fellow shareholders, you have entrusted the Board to oversee and ensure its success for the long term. It's a role we take very seriously and a responsibility we exercise with care and focus. As you know, we added 5 new independent directors to our Board in 2025 with deep and varied experience.
Together, we have effectively challenged management, reviewed strategy and overseen critical investments in our risk and control environment. As a part of our role, the Board is also very focused on the long-term needs of the bank. We regularly assess the economic, geopolitical, climate-related and technological changes shaping the environment around us, including AI. We work closely with management to understand both the risks we face today and those emerging on the horizon. This perspective informs our oversight and helps ensure TD remains resilient through change.
Every year, The Globe and Mail ranks corporate governance at Canada's largest publicly traded companies. They evaluate a broad set of criteria, including Board independence and diversity, director tenure, committee composition and CEO succession planning. I was pleased to see TD tied for the #1 ranking in 2025, but we will continue our efforts to further strengthen our Board and governance. Throughout 2025, the Board worked closely with our new CEO in his first year.
In a short time, Ray has taken decisive action to strengthen TD. Your bank's leadership is building an organization that is resilient and forward focused. We're investing in the capabilities and innovation needed to meet the needs of our clients today and for the years to come. They've done a tremendous job, improving performance, energizing our colleagues and shaping a clear strategy. An excellent job.
To speak more about our progress, I'd like to now invite Ray to address the meeting. Ray?
Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. [Foreign Language] Hello, and welcome to TD's Annual Meeting. I'm so pleased to report that TD had a tremendous year. I'm extremely proud of the progress we've made for our bank, our clients and for you, our shareholders. In just 1 year, we've developed a focused strategy, and we are executing it with discipline, building momentum in every business. We also united TD around the clear and inspiring new purpose to reimagine what banking can be. Our purpose reflects our determination to move faster and lead our business, clients, communities and industry in a rapidly changing world. Our colleagues have embraced our new strategy and purpose and are moving ahead with renewed confidence in the future.
You can feel their energy and excitement right across TD. We're back to winning. You can see this progress reflected in our performance. We've extended our position as Canada's premier banking franchise. We have the #1 most valuable brand for the fourth consecutive year. We're #1 in growth across total personal deposits, Canadian real estate secured lending and Canadian credit card volume. We operate the country's #1 direct insurance business, #1 institutional asset manager and fastest-growing ETF business, a powerful Canadian franchise. In the U.S., we have a tremendous business and continue to gain in strength and performance. We have the eighth largest bank in America with over 10 million clients in one of the largest and most competitive banking markets in the world.
We're building our future in the U.S. from a position of strength. In 2025, we restructured our balance sheet, created capacity to grow with our clients and invested in new leading applications. Our U.S. bank is a key part of our growth strategy and a key part of TD's future. With TD Cowen now fully integrated, we've added powerful new capabilities to TD Securities. This integration is driving strong results. TD Securities delivered record revenues and earnings in 2025, secured larger mandates from clients and accelerated our strategy to build a top 10 North American dealer with global reach. You can see this performance reflected in our 2025 financial results. Revenues grew 9% to $61.8 billion. Earnings grew 5% to over $15 billion.
Earnings per share increased 7% to $8.37 and our CET1 ratio ended the year at 14.7%, among the strongest capital positions in banking. We extended this performance into 2026 with record first quarter earnings of more than $4.2 billion, up 16% and record EPS of $2.44, up 21%. We also returned capital directly to you, our shareholders. We completed an $8 billion share buyback and have started a second buyback of $7 billion to return a total of $15 billion. At the start of the year, we also increased dividends. Going forward, we'll review the dividend level twice a year rather than once. And as earnings grow, so will your returns.
In just 1 year, we placed TD on a different trajectory, opening a new era of growth and performance. At our core and throughout our history, TD has always been about the people we serve, families, hard-working Canadians and Americans, business owners and business leaders, the people who form the backbone of our economies. That's why deeper relationships is the first pillar of the strategy that we outlined at Investor Day in September. Deeper relationships is about earning our clients' trust and the right to serve more of their needs. To achieve this, we are making the largest investment in client-facing talent and capabilities in decades, deploying mortgage and investment specialists, wealth advisers, business bankers and other experts right across the communities where we live and work.
These colleagues are helping families to purchase their first home, homeowners invest for the future, supporting graduates with their student loans, their first credit cards and their first investment account, assisting newcomers as they plant roots in Canada, gain credit, invest and start a new life and advising entrepreneurs and business as they invest for the future. Our focus on deepening relationship led to a record $31 billion in closed referrals from personal banking to wealth. Record credit card growth in Canada and in the U.S. and entirely new mandates for TD Securities across Canada, the U.S. and globally.
Deepening relationships has never been more important to our clients. We are operating at a time of significant uncertainty. Like many of you, our clients are working hard to build their financial future as geopolitical events, economic volatility and new technologies create new challenges. TD will continue to distinguish ourselves with the human experiences that have always defined our bank. Our new brand promise, more human or in French, [Foreign Language], reinforces our commitment to build on this legacy. We're bringing a more human element to banking from the innovation we deploy to the experiences we design. Take TD Direct Investing, Canada's #1 digital investing platform.
We're the only Canadian bank to offer fractional share ownership. With as little as $1, clients can now invest in some of the biggest companies in the world, bringing down barriers and creating new opportunities for Canadians. Our platform is designed to support clients through every stage of their lives from that $1 investment on TD Easy Trade to more sophisticated investing on TD Active Trader and every step along the way. That's more human. We also have programs designed to help clients overcome financial obstacles and solve problems, such as TD Early Pay, which allows U.S. clients to access their paycheck 2 days early.
These 2 days can have a profound impact, reducing the stress of making bill payments on time and getting food on the table. That's more human. More human will always be at the center of the advice we provide, the experience we offer and the seamless way we integrate digital into the client experience. So we're moving with speed to bring more human approaches and exceed our clients' expectations. Speed matters. In a fast-paced world, speed will be a competitive advantage for TD. That's why running a simpler and faster bank is the second pillar of our strategy. Our goal is to elevate the client experience and free up colleagues' time. We're approaching this in 2 ways.
First, structure. We're breaking down silos, reducing layers and clarifying accountability. This is already helping our colleagues make better decisions faster. Second, technology. We're deploying AI and technology at scale throughout TD. We're responsibly harnessing AI to accelerate execution across the client journey from onboarding to advice. We're deploying AI assistant in the phone channel and in our branches to shorten response times. We're accelerating the mortgage approval process, getting document review times down from hours to minutes. We're getting auto loan decisions to clients in seconds right in the dealerships, and we're building more comprehensive investment plans faster for wealth clients.
As you can see, AI will open enormous opportunities for those who embrace its potential. TD will be a leader in AI. We're not new to this game. We acquired Layer 6 in 2018 and have been building our AI talent, expertise and leadership for close to a decade. This experience positions us well to both capture the opportunities and mitigate risk. AI offers powerful advantages, but its progress and oversight must be thoughtful and human-led. As we reimagine the bank and the client experience, disciplined execution, our third strategic pillar is central to how we deliver. To keep winning, we'll continue to grow investments in innovation, new capabilities, AI and the client experience. To fund these critical investments and improve financial performance, we're fundamentally restructuring our cost base.
This will provide TD with long-term strategic advantage. We're redesigning and automating processes, pulling down procurement costs, modernizing infrastructure and relentlessly prioritizing for maximum efficiency. We've made strong progress in a short time, delivering positive operating leverage for the past 3 consecutive quarters. Restructuring our cost base, along with an intentional deployment of capital to elevate ROE is both driving our performance and funding our future. As we scale our business, we continue investing to strengthen our governance and control foundations. Critical to this effort, we're driving consistent progress on our U.S. AML remediation, our #1 priority.
With ongoing investments in talent, technology, processes and training, we're building an AML program to protect the bank, our clients and the financial system we serve. As clients' expectations grow, TD will continue to lead with clarity and conviction, driving deeper relationships, running our bank simpler and faster and operating with disciplined execution. Our strategy is designed to be resilient through change and shifting dynamics, dynamics that impact our clients, our economies in this country. This is an important moment for Canada. There is uncertainty ahead, but one thing is absolutely clear. Tomorrow will not look like today.
We have tremendous advantages and Canadians have good reason to believe in our country, a highly skilled workforce, exceptional universities and colleges, extraordinary natural resources and a stable financial system supported by the strongest banks in the world. These are terrific strengths, and I'm encouraged by the steps being taken by the Canadian and provincial governments. Building a stronger future will take continued action from governments and business leaders, to bring down interprovincial barriers, expand international trade, to develop and commercialize groundbreaking innovation, to design appropriate regulatory and tax frameworks and attract investments to build the projects and infrastructure to unlock the full economic potential. That's the Canada, I believe, that we can build together.
TD will continue to invest in our business to finance projects and programs essential to our future and contribute across our communities. Our strategy supports this future and is powered by our colleagues. Ultimately, TD's long-term success depends on our people and our culture. In fact, I believe building a winning culture is one of the most important responsibilities of a CEO.
Across TD, we're fostering curiosity, courage, accountability to strengthen our culture and drive our strategy. Curiosity to keep learning and to see around corners, courage to challenge the status quo, to lead through change and to be bold, accountability to deliver consistently and with integrity. This is the culture we are building. This is the culture that will power our future. And our colleagues bring this to life each and every day. I want to thank our colleagues for all you do for TD. I am so proud of your tremendous efforts and your continued commitment to TD and our clients. [Foreign Language] Thank you. I am very proud.
I also want to thank our clients for your trust. We'll continue to work hard every day to help you succeed and achieve your goals. Finally, I want to thank our shareholders here in the room and around the world. Thank you for your continued support as we reimagine what banking can be. Thank you.
Thank you, Ray. At this point, I'd like to move to the formal business of the meeting. I'd first like to recognize the fact that the movers for the motions presented by the bank are employees who are also shareholders. Voting will be open so long as the formal portion of the meeting is proceeding. Voting is not available to individuals who join the meeting as guests. If you voted in advance of the meeting and do not wish to change your vote, then you don't need to do anything and should not vote again at the meeting. If you vote at the meeting, you will automatically revoke your prior vote. We'll be conducting the voting on all items of formal business at today's meeting by ballot.
For shareholders and proxy holders who are joining remotely and have accessed the webcast with the appropriate credentials, the voting polls will open soon and will close after the presentation of our formal items of business. Shareholders and proxy holders will see the vote tab appear on the webcast page when the voting polls are open, which is how you can vote through our virtual voting platform. If you're watching the webcast in full screen, you'll need to minimize the video to access the voting tab. If you are with us in the room and you wish to vote during the meeting, you will need the yellow and blue ballots that were offered to you at the registration desk.
We have prepared a blue ballot for the first 5 items of business being the election of directors, the appointment of the auditor, the advisory vote on the bank's approach to executive compensation, the first amendment to the Toronto-Dominion Bank 2000 Stock Option Incentive Plan and the second amendment to the Toronto-Dominion Bank 2000 Stock Incentive Plan. Information about these items of business, including a description of each matter and the related resolutions is set out in the bank's proxy circular, which was made available to shareholders prior to the meeting. A yellow ballot has been prepared for the 9 shareholder proposals to be voted on today.
These proposals, along with the proponent supporting statements and the Board's responses are set out in the proxy circular. Scrutineers have a supply of ballots in both English and French. If you've not received a ballot and would like to vote during the meeting, please raise your hand now. I would ask the scrutineers to distribute a set of ballots to any shareholders or proxy holder in attendance who has not received a ballot or completed a proxy. As previously mentioned, if you've already voted or sent in a proxy, there's no need to complete a ballot. When you sign your ballots, please print your name clearly above your signature. When votes are submitted to our registrar and transfer agent, whether voted at this meeting or submitted by proxy, they are counted and tabulated by their officers.
The scrutineers of this meeting will then verify and report the results. A simple majority of the votes cast during this meeting or by proxy is required to pass each of the matters to be voted on today. In the interest of having an open, fair and orderly meeting, the agenda placed on the chairs of each in-person attendee contains guidelines for shareholder participation. These guidelines are based on customary rules of order as well as common sense and courtesy. This document is also available online on our annual meeting web page and in the Documents tab of the webcast for virtual attendees. On behalf of your fellow shareholders, I thank you in advance for your cooperation.
Copies of TD's 2025 annual report, which contain the bank's 2025 financial statements and the auditor's report were delivered to common shareholders in advance of this meeting and are available at the entrance of the room. You can also view the annual report on our website at td.com or in the Documents tab of the webcast. We will now address any questions or comments that have been submitted by shareholders or proxy holders directly related to the 2025 financial statements. If you have questions or comments that are not directly related to the 2025 financial statements, please hold them until the appropriate time.
Are there any questions or comments from the floor regarding the financial statements?
My name is [indiscernible] shareholders, I would first commend the entire Board for spectacular Q1 results and the second commendation of excellent customer service that I have received from TD Bank as a client. Now my question as a shareholder, what part of those Q1 earnings come from U.S. operations?
Thank you for your question, and thanks for your comments as well. They're appreciated. The disclosure in the financial statements, I think, discloses that number. So I won't throw it out here off the top of my head, but we will circle back to it as well and get back to you on a specific answer for you. But thank you very much for the question.
Okay. That's it, I think, for the room. Tony, are there any questions coming in from the webcast or phone?
Chairman, no questions have come in related to this item.
Okay. Thank you. We will now move to the election of directors. The Board of Directors has fixed the number of directors to be elected at 14, and I confirm all the nominees are eligible for election and have consented to serve as directors if elected. All 14 nominees are currently directors of the bank. Information about each nominee is included in the proxy circular. To facilitate the introduction of the nominees, we prepared a slide presentation that introduces each of them.
[Presentation]
Ayman Antoun, Ana Arsov, Cherie Brant, Raymond Chun, Elio Luongo, John MacIntyre, Keith Martell, Nathalie Palladitcheff, Frank Pearn, Jane Rowe, Nancy Tower, Ajay Virmani, Mary Winston, Paul Wirth.
I will now call on the Secretary to nominate the directors for the coming year.
I nominate each person named in the proxy circular under the heading Director Nominees to be a director of the bank until the close of the next Annual Meeting of common shareholders of the bank.
Thank you, Tony. We will now address any questions or comments that have been submitted by shareholders or proxy holders related directly to the election of directors. Are there any questions or comments from the floor regarding the election of directors? We'll now address any questions from the webcast. Have any questions come in through the webcast related to this matter?
Chairman, no questions have come in related to this matter.
Thank you. Voting is open, and we invite shareholders and proxy holders to submit their vote if they have not already done so. In-person attendees are asked to move to item #1 on the blue ballot, which relates to the election of directors. Please mark it now. Virtual participants are asked to vote in the polling feature on the webcast. As I mentioned earlier, if you've already voted or sent in a proxy, there's no need to do anything unless you'd like to change your vote.
[Voting]
The next item on the agenda is the appointment of the auditor. The Board recommends that Ernst & Young LLP be appointed as auditor of the bank until the close of the next annual meeting. Helen Mitchell and Dom Guiffrida, representatives of Ernst & Young, are available to assist with questions if necessary. I'd now like to call on Sarah Green, Senior Counsel of TD, to make this motion.
Thank you, Chair. I move that the firm of Ernst & Young LLP be appointed auditor of the bank until the close of the next Annual Meeting of Common Shareholders of the bank.
Thank you, Sarah. We will now address any questions or comments that have been submitted by shareholders or proxy holders related to this matter. Are there any questions or comments from the floor regarding the appointment of auditor? Have any questions come in through the webcast related to this matter?
Chairman, no questions have come in related to this matter.
Thank you. We invite shareholders and proxy holders to submit their vote if they've not already done so. Again, for in-person attendees, the appointment of the auditor is item #2 on your ballot, your blue ballot. For virtual participants, you should vote now using the Vote tab on the webcast screen if you've not already done so. Please mark it now. And again, as a reminder, if you've already voted or sent in a proxy, there's no need to do anything unless you'd like to change your vote.
[Voting]
The next item of business is the advisory vote on the bank's approach to executive compensation. The resolution on the approach to executive compensation is set out in the proxy circular under the heading Advisory Vote on approach to executive compensation. I'll ask Maya Raja, Senior Counsel with TD, to move the motion.
I move that the resolution set out in the proxy circular under the heading Advisory Vote on approach to executive compensation be approved.
Thank you, Maya. We will now address any questions or comments that have been submitted by shareholders or proxy holders that directly relate to this matter. Are there any questions or comments from the floor regarding the bank's approach to executive compensation? Are there any questions from the webcast?
Chairman, no questions have come in related to this matter.
Thank you. We invite shareholders and proxy holders to submit their vote if they've not already done so. If you've already voted or sent in a proxy, there's no need to do anything unless you'd like to change your vote. And again, for in-person attendees, this is item #3 on your blue ballot. For virtual participants, you should vote now using the Vote tab on the webcast screen if you've not already done so. Please mark it now.
[Voting]
The next item of business on the agenda is the first amendment to the 2000 Stock Incentive Plan. The resolution on the first amendment to the 2000 Stock Incentive Plan is set out in the proxy circular under the heading First Amendment to the 2000 Stock Incentive Plan. I'd like to call on [indiscernible], Counsel with TD, to move this motion.
I move that the resolution set out in the proxy circular under the heading First Amendment to the 2000 Stock Incentive Plan be approved.
Thank you, Tom. We will now address any questions or comments that have been submitted by shareholders or proxy holders that directly relate to this matter. Are there any questions or comments from the floor regarding the first amendment to the 2000 Stock Incentive Plan? Any address -- any questions from the webcast?
Chairman, no questions have come in related to this matter.
Thank you. We invite proxy holders and shareholders to submit their vote if they've not already done so. For in-person attendees, the first amendment to the 2000 Stock Incentive Plan is Item #4 on your blue ballot. For virtual participants, you should vote now using the Vote tab on the webcast screen if you've not already done so. Please mark it now. Again, as a reminder, if you've already voted or sent in a proxy, there's no need to do anything unless you'd like to change your vote.
[Voting]
The next item of business on the agenda is the second amendment to the 2000 Stock Incentive Plan. The resolution on the second amendment to the 2000 Stock Incentive Plan is set out in the proxy circular under the heading Second Amendment to the 2000 Stock Incentive Plan. And I'd like to call on [indiscernible] to move this motion.
I move that the resolution set out in the proxy circular under the heading Second Amendment to the 2000 Stock Incentive Plan be approved.
Thank you, Tom. We will now address any questions or comments that have been submitted by shareholders or proxy holders that directly relate to this matter. Are there any questions or comments from the floor regarding the second amendment to the 2000 Stock Incentive Plan? Are there any questions from the webcast?
Chairman, no questions have come in related to this matter.
Thank you, Tony. We invite shareholders and proxy holders to submit their votes if they've not already done so. For in-person attendees, the second amendment to the 2000 Stock Incentive Plan is Item #5 on your blue ballot. For virtual participants, you should vote now using the Vote tab on the webcast screen if you've not already done so and please mark it now. As a reminder, again, if you've already voted or sent in a proxy, there is no need to do anything unless you would like to change your vote. I'd like to remind you that when you finish marking and signing the blue ballot, please print your name above your signature.
[Voting]
I'll now ask the attendants to collect the blue ballots so that the scrutineers can begin tabulating the votes on the first 5 items.
There are 9 shareholder proposals for consideration at this meeting. All 9 proposals were submitted by MEDAC of Montreal, Quebec. I would also like to mention that the proxy circular contains details regarding one withdrawn proposal. The withdrawn proposal is from InvestNow of Toronto, Ontario. Details of the withdrawn proposal were included in the proxy circular at the request of the proponent. We now turn our attention to the proposals proceeding to a vote. The proxy circular includes statements by the proponent in support of their proposal as well as the reasons why the Board is recommending to shareholders that they vote against each of these proposals.
In the interest of time, we won't be revisiting the reasons for the Board's position during the discussion of the proposals. Shareholders and proxy holders will be given an opportunity to comment on each of these proposals. As I indicated earlier, I ask that each speaker be mindful of the guidelines for shareholder participation. I would also appreciate if each speaker would give their name and state whether they're a shareholder or a proxy holder. Shareholder proposals 1 through 9 were submitted by MEDAC and are set out in the proxy circular under the heading Shareholder Proposals, starting on Page 132. MEDAC has provided the bank a brief statement on those proposals to be read out at the meeting.
I will now invite [ Christine Michel ], an employee shareholder, to proceed with reading the statements and moving the motions on behalf of MEDAC.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman. My name is [ Christine Michel ], and I'm acting on behalf of MEDAC, the [indiscernible], which has submitted 9 shareholder proposals, 5 new proposals and 4 proposals that had already been submitted in the past and that received sufficient support to be presented again. In respect of the former proposals, we will indicate the reasons why we would have been ready to agree that these proposals not be put to a vote again, but we will focus on the new proposals. The first proposal aims at strengthening shareholder participation at Annual General Meetings.
This is our key proposal this year. Shareholder participation at annual meetings is extremely important. And we are, therefore, proposing that the bank takes a number of measures identified in our proposal. We would have been prepared not to have this proposal submitted to a vote if one of those measures had been accepted by the bank.
This is the simplest one. We were requesting the annual publication of a simple table similar to the Broadridge table that is illustrated in our proposal that could have made it possible to see at a glance whether the participation rate of shareholders at annual meetings had increased or decreased over the past few years, broken down between institutional and individual shareholders. That measure would not have been costly and would have been very useful to shareholders who otherwise have access to this information only with difficulty.
Proposal 2, inclusion of young people in the bank's governing bodies. It is proposed that the bank's Board of Directors develop and make public by the 2026 Annual Meeting a plan to increase the representation of young people aged 35 and under within its governing bodies. This is a measure that is already applicable to state corporations in Quebec. We have agreed not to put this proposal to a vote, FTD had shown that it is supporting financially and substantively training programs in civil society to prepare young people to participate on Board of Directors. We've identified a number of similar initiatives, and they require financing.
Proposal 3, responsible compensation policy aligned with performance. It is proposed that the bank adopt a more responsible compensation policy that is aligned with the bank's overall performance. This proposal brings into a single proposal, most of the measures that we have proposed in the past related to management compensation. We would have agreed not to put this proposal to a vote if TD had implemented any one of those measures, which it has not done.
Proposal 4, strategic diversification of skills on the Board of Directors. It is proposed that the Board of Directors adopt a new skills diversification policy tailored to the challenges of today and tomorrow. We believe that in addition to the regular review of the Board's skills matrix, there should also be a mechanism for ad hoc in-depth review of the matrix that could be triggered in a situation of crisis as is the case presently. And we understand that is not the case at TD Bank.
Proposal 5, formal recognition of the systemic role of the Board of Directors. It is proposed that the Board of Directors establish a permanent advisory committee on the systemic impact of the bank's decisions. The bank has declined to implement such a committee that would deal with the important question of its systemic role in society. Such a committee could draw upon external resources.
In terms of the 4 proposals that are being presented again, Proposal 6, 27.9% support last year, fighting against forced labor and child labor in loan and investment portfolios. We would have agreed not to put this motion to a vote had TD indicated what it is doing when it learns that one of its clients resorts to forced labor and child labor and whether such a situation has arisen during the year. As an example of acceptable disclosure, we have agreed not to put this matter to a vote this year at the Annual Meeting of Scotiabank.
Proposal 7, 17.36% support last year, regulating artificial intelligence in order to safeguard the human aspect. We would have agreed that this proposal not be put to a vote had TD Bank undertaken, in particular, to adhere to a voluntary code of conduct to ensure oversight of generative AI. As an example, CIBC Bank agreed to adhere to that guideline.
Proposal 8, public disclosure of nonconfidential information, country-by-country reporting, compensation ratios and tax savings. We would have agreed not to put this proposal to a vote had TD Bank disclosed its country-by-country report.
Proposal 9, 17.5% support last year, advisory vote on environmental policies. We would have agreed not to put this proposal to a vote had TD implemented the practice of an annual advisory vote on its environmental policies. We invite all shareholders to support all of our proposals. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
We'll see. We will now address any questions or comments that have been submitted by shareholders or proxy holders that directly relate to these proposals. There's no questions in person. Are there any on the webcast?
Chairman, no questions have come in related to this matter.
Thank you. Again, your Board of Directors has recommended you voting against proposals -- sorry, I didn't see you down there.
My name is David Peters. I'm a shareholder. One of the more interesting people to raise questions at this meeting in the past seems to be missing today. So the question I have to raise is who miss your Willie Gagnon?
Thank you for your question. I don't have an exact answer for that, but there are 2 conflicting bank Board meetings today. So I think our belief is he is attending the other meeting, and we agreed to put the proposals forward with one of our employees. So -- but thank you for asking the question.
Okay. So again, your Board has recommended voting against proposals 1 through 9. We invite shareholders and proxy holders to submit their votes if they've not already done so. You've already voted or sent in a proxy, there is no need to do anything unless you'd like to change your votes. Again, for in-person attendees, please mark shareholder proposals 1 through 9 on the yellow ballot now. For virtual participants, you should vote now using the Vote tab on the webcast screen if you've not already done so.
[Voting]
Thank you. That completes the shareholder proposals. I'll wait a moment while you finish voting. In-person and online voting will close shortly. And again, for our in-person attendees, please remember to print your name above your signature on the ballot. I'll now ask -- the polls are closed. I'll now ask the attendants to collect the yellow ballots. Thank you. I understand that the scrutineers have a preliminary tabulation of votes cast in respect of each of the business items before the meeting. I now ask Megan Rocha, representing the bank's registrar and transfer agent to provide us with the scrutineers' preliminary report.
For the information of the shareholders, we wish to report that more than 54.1% of the eligible shares were voted at this meeting. The preliminary results with respect to the election of directors are that a substantial majority of the votes cast at the meeting voted in favor of the 14 nominees named in the management proxy circular, with each nominee receiving in excess of 98.6% in favor. The preliminary result with respect to the appointment of auditors is that no less than 96.5% voted in favor of Ernst & Young LLP. The preliminary result with respect to the advisory vote on the approach to executive compensation is no less than 95% voted in favor of the resolution.
The preliminary result with respect to the first amendment to the Toronto-Dominion Bank 2000 Stock Incentive Plan is that no less than 96.5% voted in favor of the resolution. The preliminary result with respect to the second amendment to the Toronto-Dominion Bank 2000 Stock Incentive Plan is that no less than 97.1% voted in favor of the resolution.
The preliminary results with respect to the shareholder proposals are: Proposal 1, no less than 99.3% voted against; Proposal 2, no less than 98.6% voted against; Proposal 3, no less than 94.3% voted against; Proposal 4, no less than 91.6% voted against; Proposal 5, no less than 93.6% voted against; Proposal 6, no less than 79.1% voted against; Proposal 7, no less than 78.7% voted against; Proposal 8, no less than 92.4% voted against; and Proposal 9, no less than 85.3% voted against. Chair, that concludes the scrutineers' preliminary report on voting.
Thank you, Ms. Rocha. I now declare that the 14 director nominees named in the proxy circular have been duly elected. Ernst & Young LLP has been duly appointed as auditor. The resolution on the advisory vote on the approach to executive compensation has been passed, and resolutions on the first and second amendments to the 2,000 Stock Incentive Plan have been passed. Shareholder proposals 1 through 9 have been defeated. Final voting results will be made available shortly on td.com.
TD would like to thank our shareholders for their support and valuable feedback as TD embarks on its next chapter. This concludes the formal business of the meeting. We'll now move to more general questions or comments from shareholders. I anticipate that some of our shareholders or proxy holders may have questions. I'd like again to remind you please keep your comments brief limiting to 2 minutes so that all shareholders and proxy holders have an opportunity to participate. And again, I remind that questions should be of general interest and not a personal nature. For those of us in the room, as I mentioned earlier, a representative from TD Client Care is here today.
Sarah Barrow is located at the back of the room and can assist with personal questions after the meeting concludes. If you're asking a question of a personal nature on the webcast, we'll defer your question and have one of our Client Care representatives get in touch with you after the meeting. We'll now proceed with the questions. I'll invite Ray to the podium to lead the Q&A of the meeting.
Thank you, John. I'm looking forward to this portion of the meeting when we have the opportunity to hear from you, our shareholders, answer your questions. Before asking your question, can you please give your name, state whether you are a shareholder or a proxy holder. So let's begin with the question from the room.
Raymond, one more time. I believe I have the same questions that was asked during the business of the meeting. So my follow-up question, I was listening to that lady shareholder proposal. Our mission is more human. And the proposal was regulating AI, and I'm a strong proponent of regulating AI. If we don't regulate AI, we will have lots of job losses. And sometimes, we will have people serving us outside of Canada, which I, as a client will not like, and I will switch my business to some other bank. That's my only way to stay with one bank or any other organization that I have stayed with. So this is one piece.
The second piece about post-AML regulatory oversight that the bank is undergoing right now. What impact has it made on TD operations in United States? And throughout 2025, how much segment -- like what's the segment of those revenues that are coming to us come from U.S.? Has it slowed down? Or has it kept the same pace? This is part one. And second, again, I commend the entire TD customer service because I have dealt with other banks, too, and you guys ranked #1 right now in Canada. Thank you.
Thank you. Well, first and foremost, thank you for your comments. Thank you for the acknowledgment of all of our 100,000 colleagues at TD Bank. We pride ourselves in the service. And so thanks for that acknowledgment.
On your first question previously on what percentage of our earnings comes from our U.S. retail business, it's approximately 20%. So about 20% of the total TD Bank earnings quarterly, annually, fluctuates, obviously, depending on the quarter, but you can take that as the percentage on that side. If I think about it -- and I'll get back to your AI question in a second. From an AML perspective, as I said during my remarks, AML is the #1 priority and the remediation of our AML for myself, certainly for the entire organization. We have made tremendous progress, and it all starts with making sure that we are hiring the best of the best talent, not just from financial institutions, but from regulators, law enforcement agencies, technology companies.
And we are making substantial investments to upgrade and have upgraded our platforms to allow for detection, monitoring, escalation. And you heard the culture changes we're making in our organization to have our colleagues more curious, more courageous, more accountable. All of that with the changes that we've made around the governance of our AML and the focus of our leadership, we are on track with the milestones that we've committed and do feel very pleased with where we are. Still more to do. This is a multiyear journey as we go on this process. And so we still need to go through validation, sustainability. But from a management action perspective, we are where we set out to be from a milestone.
So -- now let me shift to your question on AI. And as you heard in my speech, everyone, I do believe that AI is probably one of the most transformative technologies in our lifetime. And it is really important with the pace of change and the capability of AI evolving at the rate it is that institutions like TD stay at the front end. And we have been on this journey for well over almost a decade. And I do think AI does 3 things. And I try to simplify it so that everyone within our organization, but also our clients, what are we trying to achieve by leveraging artificial intelligence as we move forward? I think it's 3 things.
First and foremost, I do believe in the near and medium term, it will help every colleague at TD be more effective and be more efficient. Number two, I believe it will help speed up every single process, which drives better client experiences. And you heard that our second strategic pillar is speeding -- is speed and simplification. And number three is that it will help make our products and services better, right? And so we are managing our organization and leveraging AI to enable these 3 capabilities and functions. And yes, it's important that we understand the risks and we understand the implications that AI will bring, as you just commented on, but it is front and center with us. We are proactively managing both the opportunities and the risks. So thank you for your question.
Over there.
I'm [ Abid Raza ], and I'm a shareholder. My question is about data. Where -- which jurisdiction do TD keep information on Canadian clients and shareholders? Obviously, I'm very concerned or we should be concerned under present environment.
Thank you for your question. Really important question, certainly in today's day and age. Let me start by saying protecting your data is one of the most highest responsibilities that we have as an organization, and we continue to invest to make sure your data is protected. A few things that I think are important. First and foremost, what do we do to protect your data? Number one, your data is encrypted, right?
And so regardless of the location of your data, what we make sure is your data is encrypted and that we control your data and no one else has access to your data outside of TD Bank. Then from a where is data located, most of our data now, as is with most institutions around the world have moved to a cloud situation that allows for more flexibility, but more security. But the big important message that I want all of you to take away is your data is encrypted and that only TD has access to your data. And I think that's the important thing as we go forward.
Any other questions in the room? I don't see any other questions. So why don't we see if we can take questions from the webcast. Have any questions come in from the webcast, Tony?
We have received a question on the phone line from [ Jeff Carlson ] regarding the 2023 Stanford settlement and the 2024 AML issue. Mr. Carlson, please go ahead.
Can you hear me?
Yes, go ahead, Mr. Carlson.
Mr. Chairman, I am a proxy holder for my family shares in TD Bank. Over the past few years, TD Bank has lacked ethical oversight of its operation and has at times acted criminally. As discussed in the '25 annual report, this is evidenced in the $1.2 billion voluntary settlement related to the Stanford's Ponzi scheme, that's from 2023 and more recently in the criminal conviction of TD Bank and subsequent $3 billion fine in the money laundering scheme of 2024. In addition, the 24th conviction resulted in a further $1 billion in remediation costs, and those are expected through the end of 2026.
That's a total of over $5 billion of actual shareholder value destruction since 2023. Further, all of these activities have severely limited TD Bank's ability to grow, particularly in the U.S. In fact, it was forced to shrink its U.S. operation as a consequence of the '24 criminal case. So these are very serious matters and shareholders shouldn't be satisfied that the bank's recent share price gains are proof that its previous unethical and illegal behaviors have been resolved. My question is, what is the bank doing to prevent recurrence?
Well, thank you for your very, very important question. And as we've said in the past, and I've said very publicly, it's unacceptable where we found ourselves with our AML matter. Well, let me answer the question directly on what are we doing as we go forward to ensure that TD doesn't find ourselves in that position again. A few things that I do want to call out. I do want to recognize that as we refresh the Board, one of the things that we did to look at the skills and capabilities was to make sure that we were bringing Board members that had large financial institution experience, that had experience certainly in the subject matter expertise around compliance matters, governance matters.
And so you see that play through in both our parent Board and in our subsidiary U.S. Board, and we've had about a 50% Board turnover. Second, we've established new committees within our Board specific to monitor both the remediation of the AML issues, but also to ensure that there is focus around the compliance and all things from a regulatory perspective. We've set up internal senior leadership challenge committees and assigned individuals at very senior levels to have a leadership role in reviewing all regulatory matters and ensuring timely resolution of those matters.
And I would say the investment that we have made in hiring the best talent, and we've spurred no resources over the past 18 months to bring in talent across our organization in the first line, second line, third line to ensure that we have not only the talent at the most senior levels, but talent all the way through the organization to ensure we're able to identify, escalate and resolve issues on a go-forward basis. And then I'll end with the significant, as you called it out, investments that we have made as an organization to modernize our platforms and our capabilities and our reporting.
And so we've done a tremendous amount to ensure that as we go forward that we don't find ourselves as an organization in the situation. But it is -- I appreciate you bringing the topic up. We take it incredibly seriously. I take it incredibly seriously. And I'll end with what I said earlier, it is my #1 priority. It is the bank's #1 priority to not only ensure that we remediate our AML issue, but that we build a world-class platform that is the example for how you actually lead from an AML/BSA compliance regulatory perspective.
Any other questions on -- from the webcast?
There are no additional questions on the webcast.
I'll do one more round in the room to see if there are any other questions in the room. I see there are no further questions. Thank you to our shareholders, our proxy holders for your questions and comments. And I'll turn it back over to you, John.
Thank you, Ray. That concludes our meeting. On behalf of the bank, I'd like to thank you for participating in this meeting and for your ongoing commitment to TD. I wish you all the best for your families and hope you stay safe and healthy. The meeting is now terminated. Thank you all, Mercy.
Thank you for attending the TD Bank Group Annual Meeting of Shareholders.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Dominion Bank - Shareholder/Analyst Call - The Toronto-Dominion Bank
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Dominion Bank - Shareholder/Analyst Call - The Toronto-Dominion Bank
📊 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: TD stellt auf Wachstum und Effizienz um: klare Strategie "reimagine what banking can be" mit drei Säulen – tiefere Kundenbeziehungen, ein einfacheres/schnelleres Bankmodell und disziplinierte Ausführung. Starke 2025-Zahlen und ein rekordverdächtiges Q1‑2026; AML‑Remediation bleibt oberste Priorität.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Kundenfokus: Massive Investitionen in kundennahes Personal (Mortgage/Wealth/Business-Spezialisten); berichteter Rekord von $31 Mrd. an Referrals von Retail→Wealth und starkes Kartenwachstum.
- Technologie & AI: Einsatz von KI plangesteuert und skaliert (Layer 6-Akquisition 2018); KI‑Assistenten in Call‑Center/Filialen, beschleunigte Kredit- und Anlageprozesse.
- Effizienz & M&A: Restrukturierung der Kostenbasis führt zu drei aufeinanderfolgenden Quartalen positiver operativer Hebelwirkung; Integration von TD Cowen stärkt TD Securities.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Finanzdaten: CEO nannte Rekord-Q1‑2026: Ergebnis >$4,2 Mrd (+16%) und EPS $2,44 (+21%); Gesamtrückkäufe $15 Mrd (erstes $8 Mrd, neues $7 Mrd) und Dividendenniveau künftig halbjährlich überprüft.
- Risikoupdate: AML‑Remediation: Management berichtet von Fortschritt, Validierung und Nachhaltigkeitsarbeit, sieht das Thema aber als mehrjährig.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- AML‑Risiko: Häufigstes Thema: Kosten, Governance‑Änderungen, Board‑Refresh und neue Führungsgremien; Management betont Einstellungs‑, Technologie‑ und Kontrollinvestitionen.
- AI & Regulierung: Aktionäre fragten nach Regulierung und Arbeitsplatzrisiken; Management positioniert AI als Beschleuniger, mit aktivem Risikomanagement.
- Datenschutz & Geografie: Fragen zu Datenspeicherung beantwortet: Daten verschlüsselt, Cloud‑Hosting, TD behält Zugriffskontrolle; CEO nannte ~20% Beitrag der US‑Retail zum Ergebnis.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Für Aktionäre: Solide operative Dynamik, hohe Kapitalrückführungen und klarere Wachstumsagenda sind positiv. Reputations‑ und Regulierungsrisiken (AML‑Validierung) bleiben maßgeblich; Beobachten Sie die Nachhaltigkeit der Remediation, Validierungsergebnisse und die operative Umsetzung der KI-/Kostenprogramme.
Toronto-Dominion Bank — 24th Annual Financial Services Conference
1. Question Answer
All right. For our last fireside before the break, I think the break is next, Sona Mehta, Group Head of Canadian Personal Banking at TD Bank.
Thanks for sitting down with us today and catching up on your business, your strategy. And we just had your peer, Royal, do the same thing. So we'll try to compare notes.
It's a pleasure to be here, Gabe. Thanks for having me.
The one thing I want to -- and this is more of a thank-you type of question, but TD went the other way a while back and combined Personal and Commercial from a reporting standpoint. There was a trend of splitting them up, which made it a bit tougher to follow. Is that more of just a segment at how you report the numbers or is there any more behind-the-scenes kind of coordination going on between the 2 businesses?
I like starting with a thank-you question. So if I look back to the last time we had any changes to segment reporting, that was probably last quarter, I think, of 2022. And so at the time, you might recall, we actually had retail -- like Canadian Retail as a segment. And so at the time, what we did is we said CAD P&C stands on its own and Wealth Management and Insurance stands on its own. And so we've largely stayed in that space now. To your point, I think it's simplicity of our external reporting.
There's also assets underneath those 2 businesses that are tied together. So I think about like our branch networks, some of our technology infrastructure. So splitting that apart is a bit artificial. So we have kept it simple and clean from that perspective.
One of the things though that we did very intentionally do at our Investor Day is my peer, Barb Hooper, and myself, we each set discrete business line metrics, so whether it's PTPP, ROE, efficiency ratio, we said, "Here for each individual business, this is our aspiration that we look to drive." And now we're reporting on that each quarter.
So hopefully, our goal is you're getting the best of both. You get the simplicity of one reporting at the segment level, but we do provide you the granularity and progress against our Investor Day commitments at the individual Personal and Commercial bank level.
Okay. Well, when I look at the combined business and, I mean, you could reference the Personal's contribution to that, but margins have been sort of flat for a while. And I know there's differences in how banks manage their treasury and all that stuff. So maybe you can explain some of the divergence we're seeing between TD and some of the others. Is it your decisions you made a few years ago are impacting you today? Are you being more competitive in your pricing, your customer acquisition strategy? Yes, let's go with that one.
Yes, for sure. Happy to go through that, Gabe. So I think we've been performing in line with our guidance. So last quarter, we were up sequentially 1 basis point quarter-over-quarter in NIM, so in line with our relatively stable guidance. And that's where we've been stable over the last little while.
If I decompose that, you look at our tractor on/off benefit, that's modest. And that's purely timing because we locked in less deposits at that time where rates were lowest in the pandemic level. And so naturally, what you get now is modest. But frankly, that was a benefit we took earlier. So I would kind of park that.
Then where we have favorable tailwinds are twofold, really on deposit mix, so we've seen a preferential mix on deposits. And then on our RESL book, we are definitely seeing favorable pricing as older cohorts roll off and they get replaced with better-returning cohorts. And then finally, an offset of balance sheet mix. So altogether, like a bunch of different factors, but they net out to stability in the moment.
As I look further ahead, obviously, for the immediate next quarter, we've guided to stable again because those factors are largely quite similar. But as I look further out into the year, what we're seeing is -- so we've now driven several quarters of RESL sequential origination margin expansion. So those will start to cumulate. You need like a certain aggregate volume, so to speak, for it to be material to NIM overall. So as that cumulates, but also as more and more of the lower-originating margin cohorts roll off, so I'm optimistic about the back half of this year having some potential NIM expansion.
Obviously, this all kind of is backstopped by a constructive competitive dynamic. But the fundamentals, as I see them, are supportive of some potential expansion in the back half of 2026.
And even the size of the book, that could be something that goes into -- and the timing of growth from years ago, that could go into 2027 as well.
Yes. I think we're -- I mean, it's hard enough to look a few quarters out in this kind of market. So we're really more on steady ground, and even that depends on a lot of factors. So I would say really in the back half of this year, we hope it's going to be constructive.
And then I guess the rate outlook, at least the Bank of Canada rate, as central banks -- maybe we have rate hikes again in the latter half. That should be good for margins still because it has been for TD in the past. But the trade-off is growth probably is weaker?
That's exactly the question, right? So there you go, Gabe.
Still got it.
The timing difference isn't hurting you. I mean you see from our NIFs disclosure, like generally, rising rate environments are accretive. We've got a large and stable deposit base, so that's helpful. But then the question is, what's the downdraft? That if rates go up, does that impair customer willingness to get out there? And does that -- you'd have lower growth, right? So there's a bunch of puts and takes.
For me, like I lean into our strategy underpinnings, and we are definitely a growth-oriented institution. And so that's where we'll lean on outperforming.
Okay. So sticking to the things that you can control, your strategy. There, I think probably prior to your Investor Day, there was -- the amortizing HELOCs that TD basically introduced to the Canadian marketplace was a big growth driver for years. And then during the rate hike environment, kind of took a step back because of those trigger rate things. And now it's like you're reinvigorating that product strategy. Why?
And also, I get long questions, but what has been done to the product to make it so we don't have to worry about trigger rates again? Not that that seems like a plausible scenario right now, but could be in the future.
Maybe I'll take those in 2 parts. So on the product construct, of like our HELOC FlexLine product, I would back up the bus and say what we're really focused on in our Real Estate Secured Lending business, which we are transforming end to end, our 2 anchor points are speed and specialization. Maybe we'll talk about speed in another moment, but relevant to this question really is specialization.
And so what we're seeing is as we put specialists in front of each customer, increasingly, so we have leads from our branch channel going to our mobile mortgage specialists, where the deal is complex, as an example. And so as we put deeper specialists in front of each of our customers, what we find is the advice conversation becomes more robust and specific.
Naturally, the FlexLine product has a very rich value proposition in terms of flexibility to the customer. And so more specialization, leading to more advice conversations, opens up the aperture for customers in terms of what might be the best for them.
What we find is there's a segment of customers that really benefit and value this product proposition where you do have access to the floating portion as you pay down your principal. It helps manage life. Maybe you want to do a renovation or you're looking to invest in something else or, frankly, just a vacation. And so those are things that are really goodness that come out of deep client-centric advice conversations.
I would say over maybe the past 5 years, we had more upside in this HELOC FlexLine product, that we've now reinvigorated with the specialized approach. And frankly, from our perspective as an institution, clients, I think because their needs fundamentally are met for flexibility, we find that a client that has had this FlexLine product, they actually retain with us at a higher rate relative to the traditional mortgage.
So net-net, it's kind of the ecosystem where everybody wins. The client actually gets a better product that suits their needs, and as an institution, they stay with us. So it's a business trend that we definitely find is additive.
I think your second question on -- might be more related to the variable rate product and the amortization implications. We've kept that product construct fairly consistent over time. I know a few of our peers have a similar construct. What we notice is that when a customer comes to us and they have this big home purchase, cash flow really matters. And so what we've said is, yes, interest rates, you may choose a variable rate product, interest rates are going to go up, they might go down, but your cash flow is largely likely the same during that term of that mortgage. And so customers value that we keep that mortgage payment fixed and flat, right, through that time.
We do certainly offer them options. So during the life of that term, as rates change, they could increase their payments, they could do lump-sum payments to stay even-keel with amortization. So we offer that option.
What we do though do, which is very important at time of renewal, is that's like a real reset, right? The amortization, the payment amount. And so if there was any temporary negative amortization, that gets reset at that point. And traditionally, that's obviously quite important.
And so I think overall, what you see then is the approach that we're taking, the advice, the way we support our customers during different economic cycles, it all manifests in strong credit performance. So overall, we're quite happy with that combination of product offering, stability for customers, but then naturally a full reset at renewal time.
And I guess the whole refi notion was when we looked at those charts and saw the payment shock type situation last year and this year, and then for some of those borrowers that had -- weren't paying down their principal, they were negatively amortizing, what behaviors did you observe ahead of the renewal? Was it generally more, I guess, conservative or constructive, and similar expectation this year?
We've actually been very pleased with the performance through the renewal cycles. And I think all of us were a little queasy a couple of years ago to say, when we were early days in this, like, how will consumers be able to navigate through this circumstance? What we saw was very strong performance, both through the term of the mortgage as well as at renewal.
One of the things we pride ourselves on is being very proactive with our clients. So we will be monitoring the credit quality of the book in aggregate, obviously, but in segments and then down to the customer level. And we will reach out to customers if we see signs of distress early, and we can offer them constructive options at that time. And so then that also equally applies at time of renewal. And so we can look at: do they need a different amortization schedule? Is it an adjustment in payments?
And frankly, some customers, because it is a planned moment, like it's not like a month-to-month thing that they're reacting to, but they know their mortgage renewal is up a year from now, they will start to make the choices that they need to, to manage their affairs. And then we're there every step of the way to offer advice and constructive options while managing credit quality.
Okay. And have you observed any different behaviors regionally, like Ontario, in particular, that's higher unemployment rate?
Yes. We have a strong book in Ontario by virtue of our footprint, and that holds true in the RESL book as well. About half of our exposure is in Ontario. Naturally, I think the question comes up is the unemployment rate, as it varies between different regions, what's the impact to that region, but in aggregate in the book.
In Ontario, specifically, Gabe, our credit performance is actually slightly higher than the rest of the country. And so you've got an in-built better starting point in Ontario, an in-built resilience. And so to the degree that we see disproportionate impact, obviously, employment does translate into elevated losses, but we're starting out at a better point in Ontario. So net-net, we feel very comfortable with both the credit quality in the book, but the performance that's very much in line with our expectations.
Okay. What about on the unsecured side? We'll start with credit cards. And TD's business is a combination of 2. You've got the first class, you got the Aeroplan, the more affluent customer, I guess. And then you have something we don't talk about that often, but years ago, you bought the MBNA portfolio, and that's a different customer that uses credit cards more as a borrowing vehicle. Like what's going on with that customer right now? And how big is the book?
Yes. So maybe if I talk about the aggregate credit card business first. So it's a business that we highlighted at Investor Day, one that we see considerable upside opportunity. We identified that our aspiration is to deepen our relationships by 700 basis points in the Personal side and 1,500 basis points on the Small Business customer side.
I couldn't be more pleased with the progress that we're making. We're tracking ahead of where we even set our own goals. If I look at our record -- our relationship depth in both Personal and SBB, we're at record levels. And really, we've come off of an incredible quarter where we had the highest-ever acquisitions that we've had in any quarter across the portfolio.
What I really like, Gabe, is...
This is for cards, we're talking.
This is for cards. What I really like is that it's balanced growth. And how we're going about it is 2 very simple things. So we've taken our existing customers. These are checking customers from our leading day-to-day bank, and we're pre-approving those customers and being proactive, reaching out to them increasingly via mobile, which we hadn't done before. And so we've had record uptake in pre-approvals. These are customers we know, we have their data, they're franchise with us. We understand the credit risk and they fit very well within our risk appetite.
And then the second was this opportunity that we had. So we acquire more day-to-day customers every single year. But I would say we were doing okay at deepening the relationship into credit cards. Now we are doing so much better, like record levels of franchising at point-of-sale onboarding. And so it's very balanced growth. So we're really saying our core bread and butter of our business, those are the customers that we're growing with. And it's translating to number one year-over-year loan growth again this past quarter. So really, really strong progress, and then underpinned by these leading credit qualities. I think from soup to nuts, you see like a really well-performing book.
You mentioned MBNA in particular. I think the way I think about it, Gabe, is, and you've kind of articulated this in your question, is what we want to do is have a very full product shelf that has the right product for any customer. And so that's really what the MBNA portfolio gives us, is to have a choice for the customer that is looking for something that's more of that ilk. But at the same time, we have our premium travel cards, we have our cashback cards. Having that right roster of cards and partners is incredibly important. And then we do all the right things to make sure the book grows.
Right. So what's the portfolio, how big is it now, the MBNA one? And is it -- because it is a borrowing -- more of a credit product, right?
Yes. I mean, I think you have pockets of it, Gabe, right? So over the years, that book has diversified as well. Like you see Amazon, our Amazon product is in that portfolio and it has more of a spend kind of profile to it. So I would say that book continues to grow in line with our overall book. So we like the spot that it sits at in the customer continuum. It's really about customer choice.
Okay. And what's been the key to the record quarter for customer acquisition? What was the...
This is on the credit card side?
Yes.
Yes. So I think it goes back to this we have a large back book of clients that we have not, up until now, fully franchised to the full opportunity that we had. And so what we've said, and I think -- I hope you heard this like tone at Investor Day, like this is a TD that is an edgier TD, where we're saying like opportunity that's on the shelf, it's coming off the shelf. We are going to get at it. And these are just like all of the block and tackling pieces that we have to make sure we have pre-approvals ready to go.
It's a very different experience to say to a customer as they walk in, "Yes," versus, "Let me ask you 20 questions." It's a very different experience. Now let me make sure it's served up in mobile, right? We know more customers are in mobile than they are in our assisted channels. So these are all like the really healthy things that you do when you're just getting at the opportunity, the team has done an incredible job.
Okay. And then on the -- I know we talked about deposits earlier, more as a margin question, but the balances itself have been growing, which different banks are doing different things, but yours has been a bit of an outlier. And the story we hear from some of the other banks, which have maybe flatter deposit balances, that the old GICs that we originated back in 2021, '22, those are maturing, they're not coming back, they're going to the wealth product, whatever, and then the core deposits are still growing. So what's your version, I guess? What's happening at TD's deposit business that's maybe a bit different?
For sure. So maybe I'll break out into 2 pieces. So one, I would say, in this part of the rate cycle where rates have moderated, they're kind of at a lower level now, we are definitely seeing the favorable shift from term deposits into non-term deposits. So that is very much a phenomenon in our book and it's a tailwind for us.
What I would say though that underlies that or goes beyond that is, okay, so that's happening. But then the question is, how is the book also being replenished? And so for us, this is an acquisition and a book growth led story. So as new customers, as we bring in more customers, more customers onboard to TD with deposit product. So over 80% of our customers, when they come new to bank, open either a checking account or a savings account, often both. That's what we'd like.
And so when you have this consistent acquisition inflow and we do the things that we do incredibly well -- so we engage the customer, we make sure they're active, they're engaged. That leads to primacy. We have more Canadians view us as their primary bank than anyone else. And so when that happens, a primary customer tends to hold more deposits. They also tend to stay with us longer. And so this isn't something that's once and done. Like this is something we do every day, every week, every month. And it fuels this deposit book that we have.
And so what you see is a very preferential profile. We have 69% of our deposits that are in this non-term, very stable book, versus probably mid-50s in the industry. So this for us is, yes, we're seeing definitely the rundown in term deposits, but we are seeing this healthy, steady, strong acquisition base.
There's obviously going to always be seasonality, Gabe. There are some quarters that people are flowing into RSPs and other investments, so like an individual quarter might behave differently. But in aggregate, this has been a point of strength for TD. I think it's something that we pride ourselves in, and we continue to see strength and momentum here.
Okay. We talked a bit customer acquisition, growth, obvious reasons. But there's also a discussion to be had around what you do during periods of economic weakness. And in the past, we've heard banks say -- you talked about it, but when we're talking about mortgage renewals, working with our customers, getting ahead of them, like what -- the volume of that activity must be higher today than what it normally is. Other than reaching out to mortgage customers before renewal or well before renewal, are there any other strategies you're implementing to kind of make sure during a period of economic softness, that things don't -- we don't have more negative developments than is necessary?
Yes. I think we start with a very client-centric ethos and also a prudential ethos. And so if I start maybe with the second part first, when we underwrite a client, we pride ourselves on being a through-the-cycle lender. So that means then we don't have frothy times and we don't pull back, right? So we have a very consistent risk posture. So I think that matters first. Because we're saying there is a typical type of borrower profile that stays within our risk appetite on a perennial basis and we don't wax on, wax off. We would prefer to have consistency there. So you start out with that. You start out with a strong borrower.
The second thing that we do is obviously very holistic monitoring. And I mentioned that both at the portfolio, the subsegments, down to the individual borrower. I think the key for us is that we reach out early. So if you see distress, that customer can come into our TD Helps group, that I mentioned, in 2 ways.
One is someone -- they've talked to someone in a branch or one of our contact centers, and expressed some financial duress in their life. And then that could be a referral into our TD Helps team.
Equally, when we see things in our portfolio where we see signs of distress, maybe it hasn't manifested, maybe the person hasn't reached out, we will proactively reach out to customers and say, "Hey, can we offer you some help and advice?" We talked about mortgage, it might be like a temporary relief on payment, it might be adjusting actual payments amount and amortization. Like if you hear some of the individual stories, Gabe, like we really help customers through what might be some of their hardest moments. And so we pride ourselves we're there for life's best moments and we're there for the hardest moments.
And so I think it comes down to our borrower-by-borrower approach and to say like, "Let's work with you to try and get you through this." And so we've seen that, as the mortgage book has renewed through multiple cycles, we'll have 27% of that book renewed this year, we're there, we work with our clients. And that serves us really well.
And ultimately, you see it bear out in the results. We have, among our peers, leading performance in our RESL book, in our credit book. And I think it's the -- it's not one part of the ecosystem, like it's the whole thing, starting from underwriting, stability in the profile that we look for and then supporting our clients through tough times.
Okay. Well, I should end on a happier note.
Yes, let's find some happiness. We are very pleased with the momentum, I have to say, in the business. This past quarter, Gabe, we took -- we led the industry in personal deposits growth, in credit card growth and in our RESL growth. Our team has this data back to the last 8 years or so, we've never done that before. Like this is a team that is getting at the opportunity that we have, and we're tracking very well against where we said we were going to chart the path to the future.
Perfect.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Toronto-Dominion Bank — 24th Annual Financial Services Conference
Toronto-Dominion Bank — 24th Annual Financial Services Conference
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernbotschaft: TD setzt auf organisches Wachstum durch Kundendurchdringung, Spezialisten‑Vertrieb und Produktdifferenzierung. Real‑Estate‑Secured‑Lending (RESL) sowie HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit)‑Verbesserungen stützen die Perspektive für eine mögliche NIM (Net Interest Margin)‑Ausweitung in H2 2026; kurzfristig bleibt die Lage stabil.
📌 Strategische Highlights
- Reporting: TD kombiniert Canadian Personal & Commercial extern, liefert aber quartalsweise Zielkennzahlen auf Einheits‑Ebene sowie Granularität zu Vorsteuerergebnis, Return on Equity (ROE) und Effizienz‑Ratio seit dem Investor Day.
- Produkt: HELOC "FlexLine" wird durch spezialisierte Beratung neu positioniert; Zahlungen bleiben während der Laufzeit stabil, am Renewal‑Datum erfolgt ein Amortisations‑Reset zur Risikokontrolle.
- Karten & Einlagen: Rekord‑Akquisitionen bei Kreditkarten durch mobile Pre‑Approvals; Deposits profitieren von ~69% nicht‑term Einlagen und anhaltendem Neukundenzufluss.
🔍 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Management nennt konkret die Erwartung einer möglichen NIM‑Verbesserung in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2026 durch kumulierende RESL‑Origination‑Marge; kurzfristige Guidance bleibt "stabil". Zusätzlich wird nun regelmäßig Fortschritt zu Investor‑Day‑Zielen berichtet.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Margen: Analysten fragten nach der Divergenz zu Peers; Antwort: kurzfristige Stabilität durch Deposit‑Mix und rollierende RESL‑Cohorts, mittelfristig potenziell besseres Umfeld in H2 2026, abhängig vom Wettbewerbsdruck.
- Produkt & Kredit: HELOC‑Risiken und negative Amortisation wurden thematisiert; Management betont fixe Zahlungen während der Laufzeit, Reset bei Renewal und proaktives Monitoring via "TD Helps".
- Karten & Portfolio: Nachfrage zur MBNA‑Position und Kundenverhalten; Antwort: diversifiziertes Kartenangebot, starke Mobil‑Onboarding‑Leistung und hohe Primacy bei neuen Kunden.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Für Aktionäre bedeutet der Austausch: TD verfolgt ein wachstumsorientiertes, zugleich vorsichtiges Kreditprofil mit starken Einlagen- und Akquisitionsmetriken. Die operative Performance ist robust; NIM‑Upside ist möglich in H2 2026, bleibt aber von Zins‑ und Wettbewerbsbedingungen abhängig.
Toronto-Dominion Bank — RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Institutions Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Kelvin Tran, the CFO of TD. Kelvin, welcome again to the conference. Thank you for coming.
Thank you for having me. Great to be here.
So as per usual, what we've been -- I've been sort of highlighting for everybody is Canadian Banks just recently reported. So we'll do a lot of follow-up on what we just saw in the quarter. And I think in your case, one of the things that I constantly get asked about is loan growth. It's a function of all banks, U.S., Canada. But essentially, the question that I keep getting is when we look at your loan growth in '25, it was relatively light, below the peer median growth. And a lot of people want to know a little bit more about how you see loan growth evolving over the course of '26. And in your case, in particular, because you have a strong position in Canada, people are quite interested in the mortgage market. And what kind of housing market do you need for much stronger mortgage growth. So why don't we start with the loan growth question, and I'm sure it will evolve from there. But over to you, how do you see it evolving over 2026?
Sure, sure. Thanks for the question. Good afternoon, everyone. Yes. So why don't I just help you unpack the Canadian story versus the U.S. story and talking about how we see our results. So for Q1 this year, we're very pleased with our Canadian loan growth. If you look at the detail for the mortgage business, which is RESL, we call it. Volume grew more than 5% year-over-year, and that's on the back of a relatively challenging mortgage market. What we're laser-focused on is growing the originations of our proprietary channels, right? That's a more profitable channel, stickier. And it proves that -- and our originations there is up double digit year-over-year. So it proves that our specialization strategy is working and our refinement of our referral model between the branch and our mobile mortgage specialists is working as well. So very pleased about that.
The other asset class that we're very focused on is credit cards. And for those in Canada, volume was up 7% year-over-year. And we look at active accounts, and those were at record levels. and still growing at 5% year-over-year. So those are like leading indicators of future growth that you're talking about, the credit card business.
Is that like new accounts, do you mean or...
Active accounts. And so those would -- if you grow your active accounts and over time, they'll build more and more volume. And so they're at record levels and still growing 5% year-over-year. And then on the business loan side, that is up 6% year-over-year despite a fairly uncertain macro environment, as you know, in Canada. So overall, very pleased with the results of our Canadian businesses. And then on the U.S. business, as you know, we've worked really, really hard on restructuring our balance sheet over the last year. Because of the asset cap, we're very focused on creating 10% of balance sheet room so that we could continue to support our customers, our clients. And there, on loans or businesses that are less profitable, we exited them either by selling loans or by putting them in runoff mode.
So when you look at that year-over-year, that is impacting year-over-year loan growth. Excluding those runoff portfolios, we're really looking at core loan growth growing 2% year-over-year. But if you look underneath that on the areas that we really like, like in our proprietary bank card portfolio, that is up 15% year-over-year. And other areas that we really like, for example, is the commercial middle market business where we have synergies with TD Cowen. We like that space, we will continue to double down on that. So overall, that's the environment. We're very pleased with that on both sides of the border, given how we perform and the 2% loan growth ex runoff is fairly much in line with the U.S. market.
And can you speak to what you're seeing in terms of spreads for all of this loan growth? And we do see your net interest margin certainly in the U.S. has had a very big ramp up. And I know you can talk a little bit more about the NIM expansion that you've seen and what you're expecting going forward. But can you talk about the spreads that you're seeing on these loans?
Yes. Loans -- our loan spreads are good. And like we talked about over our strategy deployment per Investor Day, we're much more disciplined in terms of ROE threshold when we issue these loans. And so therefore, you do expect loan margins to be better than what they used to be, plus the fact that working with TD Cowen, it's going to generate fee income as well. So it's not just on an NII growth, but also fee income growth, whether it sits in TD Securities or in U.S. banking.
And a couple of weeks ago when I was fashioning these questions, I was thinking about possibly lower rates. I don't know if that's the case anymore. But if there was a change in interest rates in the U.S., how should we think about your margin?
Well, again, it depends on the week that you're asking me this question 2 weeks ago, maybe 2 to 3 rate cuts, now seemingly potentially no rate cuts depending on who you're listening to. I would say the direction over the last 2 weeks with less rate cuts is going to be a tailwind and beneficial to our margin in the U.S.
Yes. That's what I figured. And maybe just to wrap up the balance sheet growth deposits. How do you see that evolving? What we saw in Canada was a lot of term deposits sort of running off. Are we at the end of that? And can you talk about deposit, deposit mix and how that's affecting your margin?
Yes. I mean you're absolutely right. Several years ago, when rates were really high, you see a migration of core deposit, checking deposit to term. And it's been a while now that consistently every quarter, term deposit is coming down, it's going into core deposit, which we like.
So one of the things that I get asked a lot about is TD's stance on costs. And it became very clear at your Investor Day that you were going to be laser-focused on costs over the course of this time. Now one of the things that you guys did was a fairly large restructuring charge, savings of $775 million. Those are pretax numbers, by the way. And some of that $400 million in run rate cost savings is reaffirmed. I guess the question is, where have you been successful in reducing costs thus far in '26? And where could you maybe accelerate maybe in '26 and into '27 as people think about your efficiency targets and your operating leverage targets?
Sure, sure. So you're right. On Investor Day, we talked about cost take out about $2 billion to $2.5 billion. We have 6 levers where we could pull. And then more specifically by business segment, you would see a higher proportion of cost savings coming from the wholesale banking business and also U.S. banking. But all businesses would -- is expected to contribute to that. And somewhat public, you've already seen it. like in Q1, we announced store closures in U.S. banking. That's part of our distribution transformation lever. But there's also procurement, AI automation as well. And what Ray talked about and the management team is very focused on is reducing structural costs. It is looking at unit cost, how do we wake up every day just grinding down that cost day in, day out. And so if you look at RESL, we talked about that, how do you drive that we did 20% or more savings from just education, funding and discharge through automation and AI.
And then even in the claims and insurance, well, how do you drive claims cost down and prevent fraud and claims. On the procurement side, it is about both driving down volume, which is demand management, like how do you prioritize your activities to drive down demand, but also for unit cost, right? So it's volume times cost. And given our purchasing power, we continue to negotiate with the power of our franchise. And one recent win was looking at a very large contract on a North American basis and driving down significant savings through that renewal. And those are structural unit cost savings because those are vendors that we use on a continuous basis. And so that would drive down unit costs. And so very pleased about all of those levers that we have.
And what's the -- I mean, it was interesting, we had one of your peers up here was talking about sort of a bit of a philosophy. Do you guys kind of have a philosophy on, okay, we've driven down, I don't know, i will take the number. How about -- I've driven down $775 million pretax of costs. And part of that is going to go towards reinvestment in AI or is there a general philosophy at TD in terms of reinvestment and specifically into AI because there's probably going to be some follow-ups. AI has been very topical here.
Yes. We look at AI as one lever as any. So no specifically that we have to do that or not. It is all depending on the business case. And this year, where we guided to is expense growth of 3% to 4%, and that's all it. So meaning we're investing in the business, investing in areas where it would drive future growth, net of the productivity savings.
Yes. I mean your expense growth was up 7% year-over-year and a bit ahead of your -- I think, your longer-term guidance. So does it -- when do you think it moderates this year? Is it a back half story just like credit? Or is this something that can happen relatively quickly?
Right. So if you look at our expense growth, we're already bending the expense growth curve. 7% is the lowest expense growth in the last 6 quarters, right? And you would see that expense growth continue to come down as we, I would say, implement these strategies and these levers quarter-over-quarter. Okay.
And maybe just shifting gears now to credit, credit quality because I had a little bit of -- there's a few things out there on private credit that's hitting the markets recently. So I did want to touch on maybe just that first before we dive into some specifics. Can you speak to private credit exposure at TD and just give everybody a general idea of how you view the issues that we're seeing today in the private credit space?
Sure. Like we don't have big exposures to private credit around 1%. So nothing that we would call out or be concerned about.
And how is it -- is it -- what is it mostly consist of? Or is it very diversified by industry sector?
Yes, it's quite...
It's quite okay. So then looking at your ACLs and your existing and your PCLs that we recently saw. First and foremost, I think one of the things that everybody is really nervous about is the upcoming discussions on USMCA. Now we've got oil, high oil sort of some volatility around that. Can you maybe discuss how we should think about provisions for credit losses sort of playing out for the rest of the year? And maybe give us a range, like how -- everybody -- every Canadian bank is suggesting that provisions for credit losses are going to fall in the back half of the year. Why is that particularly true for your bank?
Yes. So number one, our guidance for PCL ratio is 40 to 50 basis points this year. We haven't changed our guidance despite the fact that there are changes in macro environment. And that's down from 45 to 55 basis points of last year. So that's an improvement year-over-year. In terms of our coverage ratio, we're at 99 basis points. So we feel very comfortable with that. And within that 99 basis points, is inclusive of over $500 million of tariff and trade policy-related risk reserves.
So we feel comfortable with that number because the way we go about it is actually looking at various scenarios that could play out given the information that we have now. Plus we also do a bottoms-up file-by-file review on the non-retail portfolio. And so that gives us confidence and a good understanding of where the risk resides, and we continue to be comfortable with that number. And then on top of that, we do stress testing on different possible scenarios that could come up. And so nothing right now tells us that we need to change that number.
And when you do this file-by-file review, how much of a future look can this actually play out for you? Because I mean typically, I remember that the old adage we really only have a view on this credit about 6 months. Is that a fair assessment?
I would say it's more than 6 months. But yes, you have to look at the customer, the geography, the industry they're in, vulnerable they are in terms of financial situation, but also to the shock that you're seeing in the market. You take that all into account, you stress them notches of downgrade differently. And then you go, okay, well, what is your exposure? And then using some expert judgment overlay on top of that.
And so what do you tell investors that ask about the small creep up we see in the consumer delinquency statistics across all Canadian banks. Why is that not -- why is that something that's not concerning the bank?
Because we expected that to happen. And so in when consumers are under pressure, which they are, you do expect consumer credit to deteriorate. And where you expect to first go would be credit cards and auto, and you're seeing that playing out. And when we look at our models, it's playing out fairly much as what we expected. And so therefore, from that perspective, we're not concerned. And we would expect continued pressure in that -- in those categories throughout 2026.
Okay. So that's not a function -- that's not what's going to help your PCL in the back half of the year.
Well, we're not one of the banks that said back half, first half. We said the 40 to 50 basis points. And I think in Q1, it was 43 basis points.
So you're still within the range for the rest of the year?
Exactly.
Okay. And how should we think about it -- or have you thought about discussing your longer-term loss ratio?
Well, there's so much depending on the macro environment, but what makes us feel good about it is when we look at the credit quality of our book, it is strong. And that gives us comfort. We haven't seen anything that causes us concern. And with the $500 million of reserve, we feel very comfortable.
So one of the other things that really sets you apart versus your peers is an extraordinarily high level of capital and a very active buyback program.
Good place to be in, right?
Yes. No, absolutely. There's no harm there. So last year, you returned a lot of capital. This year, I think you committed to about $7 billion of return on capital.
Yes.
The issue that I have is I can't model down your common equity Tier 1 ratio even after that large outlay. So realistically, where could we expect your common equity Tier 1 ratio to land at the end of the year? And are you -- is this a burning issue for you? Do you guys feel like really needs to come down to 13%. And I know you guys want to, but is it realistic for us to see it?
Right, right. And so one of the governor is ROE. We're very focused on driving ROE growth. We want ROEs to get to 16% in 2029 and hopefully even sooner. And so that's the amount of capital -- excess capital matters because that's the denominator. And what you heard us talking about it on Investor Day is that we are disciplined in deploying our capital, right? We're deploying our capital organically because that is the highest return that we get. And that would drive earnings growth, which would then come with higher dividends because we have a payout ratio that we want to stay with within 40 to 50 basis points. And then if there's any excess capital, bearing any additional usage, we will return that capital consistently back to our shareholders. And that's what we said, and that's what we were going to do.
And our goal is to get to 13% CET1 by the second half of 2027. And if that means that we need to launch another share buyback after this one, we will consider it, obviously, subject to approvals and market conditions and whatnot, and we're not shying returning capital that way.
And a question that I get from a lot of investors is, I mean, at some point, does the stock price stop you from buying back your stock?
Well, if you ask whether I care about what share price I buy back the stock, I do care. We're using shareholders' money to buy back our stock. But if you look at the increase in the stock price, it's just a reflection of our strong execution. And so we believe that if we continue to -- so don't look backward, but look forward, continue to execute on our strategy, we will continue to drive earnings growth. We will continue to drive ROE growth, and that would be further reflected in our share price. So we will be -- continue to be comfortable in doing that.
And so is it possible, Kelvin, that I don't have enough RWA growth built into the model because I can't get your common equity Tier 1 ratio down to -- I think I still -- I can't remember -- I think I've got like almost 14 by the end of '27. So it's really hard to grind it down. Is it -- is there a potential for RWA inflation here? Or what am I missing on that?
No, I think it's just a good problem to have. Like I said, we just spin off so much organic capital. But if there's a need, we're not shy of returning capital back to our shareholders through share buyback.
I will take questions from the audience. So don't be shy. If anybody wants to ask a question, please go ahead and raise your hand. Kelvin doesn't mind either, right?
No.
By any means, no. If there's no questions, we'll march on. It's been a really strong capital markets kind of environment. We've had a lot of volatility in the markets, a lot of client activity, a lot of business. Several of the Canadian bank CEOs, CFOs have all told me a lot of momentum bleeding into 2026. Maybe you can give us a view. And maybe give us a reminder on what it is that you're trying to accomplish with TD Cowen.
Sure. So I agree with that view. If you look at '25, there was good momentum going into Q1 and then Q1 now going into Q2. The market generally continues to be constructive, though last 2 weeks, there's quite a bit of volatility. We'll see how that plays out over time. It's early days. But you're right, if you look at Q1, our results were very strong. Earnings of $560 million, up 65% year-over-year, record revenue of $2.5 billion. And that's the combination of efforts that we spent is a multiyear effort in investing in wholesale banking. We like that business. We want it to grow. And TD Cowen filled the gap that we had. And with the successful integration and the continued building investment in prime services or global transaction banking, we see a lot of potential with wholesale banking.
Now when you step back, what's interesting is we do talk about a good macro environment. But if you look at the last year, they're actually quite different quarter-to-quarter because they're not -- it's not the exact same environment over time. In some quarters, fixed income is stronger. Some quarters, equity, equity derivative is stronger. Some quarters, advisory is stronger. And even in Q1, it was commodities but precious metals. And now in Q2, it seems like commodities but oil. And so to be able to perform in different markets just shows that we've built a diversified business that could capture opportunities when they arise. And so I feel really good about that.
Is the build over? Is there verticals that you need to work on?
There's no major gaps, but like I talked about, prime services, we're launching a few products, still more to go, but also global transaction banking is on its way. But a lot of the investments have been made already, but still some to go.
It's interesting, the global transaction banking. I mean, you hear it a lot, everybody is building it out, working on it. Is it getting to be a crowd space, what's your...
No, no, I don't think so. Like if you look at Global Transaction Banking in my oversimplified world, it's just the equivalent of the deposits business on the retail side, right? But it's helping corporate. And so those are sticky deposits that you'd like, you're servicing the customer, helping them with cash management. So all these are very similar to retail on the core checking and deposit. We like that business. We like the space.
And not getting competitive?
Everything is competitive, Darko.
Fair enough. But increased competition...
Right. But I think increased competition is good, but we were strong and we're up for it...
All right. And one other thing, I mean, it's now been how many years that Cowen has been in the fold. And I think we're past the point where people were once concerned that there were sort of handcuffs on employees. And like where are we in that journey?
What I would say is what we find is that you have to have the right culture to begin with. And we do spend a lot of time looking at cultural fit when we first acquired TD Cowen. And then at the end of the day, People want to work for a winning bank. People want to work for a bank that they're building something together. It's exciting when you're building something together. That's what we're being told for people who are from TD Cowen, but also people that are now joining the wholesale bank and say, we see that you are committed to investing in this franchise. We see that you're building something special here. We want to be part of it. And so I think like what's not to like.
And I guess maybe just draw the link between TD Cowen and the U.S. Bank. I mean I think that's the one thing that I think a lot of people really want to get a little bit more firmer in their mind in terms of the opportunity set.
Sure. Like so if you look at our U.S. banking business, they deal with small business and middle market clients. And TD Cowen, that is their sweet spot from an advisory perspective. But before when TD Cowen was on their own, they didn't have a balance sheet. So this is like a perfect marriage where we have a balance sheet in U.S. banking. We didn't have the capabilities, the expertise that TD Cowen would bring in. And now there's really good synergies.
From a booking point perspective, it's a little bit different, right, because you see some of the fees that go into wholesale bank -- so it's slightly different. But at the end of the day, I see this as one big bank, one big TD bank and how we are servicing our clients.
And -- I mean, have we seen tangible results? Or is this still more of an opportunity?
No, there's tangible results. And then -- but some of these relationships are multiyear relationship, like you build a relationship. It doesn't mean that there's an opportunity right away for them. But if you service them well and they build that relationship and you build that trust, it's just a matter of time.
And so another question that gets lobbed at me, and it's not one that I like to think about too much is Darko, what is your absolute best case scenario for TD and the asset cap? When could it come off? Maybe you can give us a bit of an update on the AML work that you've done and just give a reminder of kind of that asset cap and sort of the parameters around it.
Sure, sure. Just high level, we're making good progress on the AML remediation. We try to be as transparent as we can. So in the investor deck that you see, we talked about what we've been able to accomplish this quarter, but also what to expect next quarter. And so this way, next quarter, if we say, hey, we're missing something, then you know whether we're on track or not. And that's the transparency that we want to provide. In terms of the asset cap, we were so laser-focused, as you know, when we had the global resolution back in 2024, immediately, we announced how we're going to create the capacity. And that was really important for us.
It's not just the numbers game, but our clients want to know that we are there for them. And we want to be able to tell them right away, this is our strategy, look at our execution and the execution was really, really strong, creating 10% of balance sheet room. So we're very comfortable that we have enough room and we have additional levers we wanted to pull in servicing our clients. So from an asset cap perspective, we really like the space where we're at today.
Okay. Great. You mentioned earlier that you had some success with your credit card business. I think it was a 15% growth in U.S...
Bank card in the U.S., that's right.
But on the flip side, you just did something with Nordstrom. So maybe you can talk about the changes. What are the financial benefits we should think about with the changes and more -- and the business case, too? Maybe you can touch on that.
Sure, sure, sure. Stepping back, we just like the credit card space, the good space, not easy. You have to have scale, you have to have data so that you can manage the risk. Proprietary bank card is important because it helps us deepen relationship with our existing customers on the stores, the branches. And then the partnerships are important because we can leverage on their customer relationship to help us build scale. And this is just another evolution of that building scale because we now have taken over the servicing of Nordstrom's clients, right?
So full service provider. And so we've taken that over from Nordstrom. That required us to add people, a little bit of system. But that shows the importance -- the strategic importance of this asset class that we're committed to this partnership. We're committed to investing in this business. And this is what we know what to do. Like this is our space and it helps us build scale. And the benefits are with Target and Nordstrom is a revenue sharing and a credit risk sharing agreement. And so by taking the servicing over, we will take a bigger share of revenue but also expected credit losses. But net-net, it's a benefit to the bottom line.
So it's an overall better benefit, but now you're participating in some of the credit risk?
We always participated in the credit risk, but it was a different percent -- but yes, so I'm making it up here. So let's say it used to be 90-10. We had 10%. Now it was like 80-20, right? So we just have more revenue, but also more expected credit losses. But overall, the revenues we expect to be higher than the credit losses. And so therefore, you make more money out of the deal.
So that was Nordstrom. The obvious question is Target? Or is this something that you -- and is this a commercial for more of these kind of relationships?
No, we like the space. We think that we could operate this more efficiently. And so we've done it now with Nordstrom. It was converted this quarter. And so with scale, it's just going to be more profitability for us.
Okay. We're coming up to the end of our time together. Maybe you can give us a couple of key takeaways that you'd like to leave with investors.
Sure. Well, thank you for having me. I always enjoy this conference. We're very pleased about the execution that you've seen so far. We've laid out our strategy at Investor Day. And what we're asking our shareholders to do is trust us, we will do what we said we would do. If you look at Q1, that is playing out as we expected. And we're committed to delivering the financial targets and the strategies that we've laid out on Investor Day.
Okay. That's it. Thank you so much. Appreciate it.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Toronto-Dominion Bank — RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Institutions Conference 2026
Toronto-Dominion Bank — RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Institutions Conference 2026
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: TD zeigt Fortschritt bei der Strategie: Q1-Ergebnis $560M (+65% YoY) und Rekordumsatz $2,5bn. Wachstum ist selektiv (Kanada: Hypotheken & Karten; USA: fokussiertes Ausbau), Kapitalrückführungen bleiben hoch, Kosten- und Produktivitätsprogramme werden konsequent umgesetzt.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Kanada: RESL-Mortgage-Volumen +5% YoY; proprietäre Originations im zweistelligen Bereich; Kartenvolumen +7%, aktive Konten +5%; Firmenkredite +6%.
- USA & TD Cowen: Kernwachstum ex Runoff ~+2% YoY; US bank card +15% YoY; TD Cowen liefert Gebühren und Synergien (Middle Market, Prime Services, Global Transaction Banking).
- Kosten & Kapital: Kostenziel $2–2,5bn Reduktion, bereits $775m Restrukturierung (vor Steuer) mit $400m Run‑Rate bestätigt; Expense‑Guidance 3–4% für 2026; CET1‑Ziel 13% bis H2 2027; Kapitalrückführung ~ $7bn angekündigt.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Aktuelles: Übernahme der Servicing‑Aufgabe für Nordstrom in diesem Quartal (höherer Umsatzanteil gegenmehr erwartete erwartete PCLs, netto vorteilhaft). PCL‑Guidance unverändert 40–50 bp; Coverage ~99 bp inkl. >$500m tarifbedingter Reserven. AML‑Remediation: transparente, quartalsweise Fortschrittsangaben.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Loan Growth: Nachfrage nach der Entwicklung 2026 (insb. Hypotheken); Management sieht weiteres Wachstum aus proprietären Kanälen, blieb aber vorsichtig bzgl. Marktabhängigkeit.
- NIM & Zinsen: Nachfrage nach Sensitivität an Zinssenkungen; CFO: kurzfristige Zinsdynamik bleibt maßgeblich, zuletzt weniger Cuts = tailwind für US‑NIM.
- Kapital & RWA: Wie tief kann CET1 fallen bei starken Buybacks? Antwort: Ziel 13% bis H2 2027, weitere Buybacks möglich; zu RWA‑Inflation blieben konkretisierende Details knapp.
📌 Bottom Line
- Fazit: Der Auftritt untermauert, dass TD die Investor‑Story (ROE‑Verbesserung, TD Cowen, Kartenwachstum, Kostenhebel) liefert. Für Aktionäre: positives Signal durch Earnings, Kapitalrückführungen und operativen Fortschritt – Risiken bleiben makrobedingte Kreditentwicklungen, RWA‑Pfad und erfolgreiche Umsetzung der Kostensenkungen.
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the TD Bank Group First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Ms. Brooke Hales, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Ms. Hales.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to TD Bank Group's First Quarter 2026 Results Presentation. We will begin today's presentation with remarks from Raymond Chun, the bank's CEO; followed by Leo Salom, Group Head, U.S. Banking, after which Kelvin Tran, the bank's CFO, will present our first quarter operating results. Ajai Bambawale, Chief Risk Officer, will then offer comments on credit quality, after which we will invite questions from analysts on the phone. Also present today to answer your questions are Sona Mehta, Group Head, Canadian Personal Banking; Barbara Hooper, Group Head, Canadian Business Banking; Paul Clark, Group Head, Wealth Management and Insurance; and Tim Wiggan, Group Head, Wholesale Banking.
Please turn to the next slide. Our comments during this call may contain forward-looking statements, which involve assumptions and have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially. I would also remind listeners that the bank uses non-GAAP financial measures to arrive at adjusted results. The bank believes that adjusted results provided readers with a better understanding of how management views the bank's performance. Ray, Leo and Kelvin will be referring to adjusted results in their remarks. Additional information about non-GAAP measures and material factors and assumptions is available in our Q1 2026 MD&A. I would also like to note that effective this quarter, the bank renamed its U.S. Retail segment to U.S. Banking to better reflect the segment's financial products and services.
With that, let me turn the presentation over to Ray.
Thank you, Brooke, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. We had another strong quarter as we continue to demonstrate momentum across our strategic priorities. In Q1, the bank delivered a strong quarter with record earnings of $4.2 billion and EPS of $2.44, powering an ROE of 4.2%, up 100 basis points year-over-year. We saw robust trading and fee income growth in our markets-driven businesses, volume growth in Canadian P&C Banking and margin expansion. Impaired PCLs ticked up quarter-over-quarter in wholesale and U.S. commercial, reflecting a small number of borrowers across various industries. Overall, credit performance was in line with our expectations. We continue to expect fiscal 2026 PCLs to fall within a range of 40 to 50 basis points. Ajai will share more details shortly in his remarks.
Our year-over-year expense growth continued to moderate this quarter, and we delivered positive operating leverage for the third consecutive quarter. We are on track to achieve our 3% to 4% expense growth target for fiscal 2026. The bank's Q1 CET1 ratio was 14.5% with strong organic capital accretion in the quarter. In January, we completed our $8 billion share buyback and launched our new $7 billion share buyback. As of the end of Q1, we had bought back approximately 84 million shares across these 2 buyback programs. We remain committed to consistently returning excess capital to our shareholders. We have conviction that TD's current share price does not fully reflect the bank's intrinsic value. TD has strong momentum, and we see considerable upside from here. Even with significant share buybacks, TD's robust organic capital accretion means it will take time for the bank to reach a 13% CET1 ratio. This is an enviable position for any bank and a unique advantage for TD. We are managing towards a 13% CET1 ratio by the second half of fiscal 2027.
Overall, we have momentum across our businesses as we continue to deliver on our strategies to deepen relationships, make TD simpler and faster and execute with discipline. We continue to see potential upside to our 6% to 8% EPS growth and 13% ROE targets for fiscal 2026, provided that positive macroeconomic conditions continue.
Please turn to Slide 3. Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking delivered record revenue, PTPP, earnings, deposit and loan volumes. In real estate secured lending, loans were up 5% year-over-year, and we continue to achieve sequential origination margin expansion. In addition, we saw record Q1 originations in our proprietary channels. In cards, we delivered the highest quarterly acquisition in a decade, driven by record pre-approvals for our existing clients and record point-of-sale deepening in our branches. We saw continued acceleration in the business bank with loans and non-term deposits up 6% and 7% year-over-year, respectively.
At Investor Day, we laid out our strategy to capture deepening opportunities, including frontline expansion. We have added over 300 business bankers, an increase of 10% since the end of fiscal 2024, and we are seeing the benefits of that strategy play through. In U.S. Banking, we saw continued momentum across our core business lines as we deepen relationships with our clients. Mid-market lending balances were up 4% year-over-year, and we saw strong pipeline growth with commitments up 15% over the same period. U.S. proprietary credit card balances were up 15% year-over-year with record digital acquisition. Earlier this month, we completed the conversion of Nordstrom's card clients onto our servicing platform. This is an important strategic milestone that provides scale as we build out our credit card franchise.
In our U.S. wealth business, total client assets were up 12% year-over-year with mass affluent client assets up 18% year-over-year. Wealth Management and Insurance delivered record earnings and assets. Let me start by congratulating the direct investing team. Last week, our leadership in the market was once again recognized when personal finance expert, Rob Carrick, said TD Direct investing is still king among Canadians online trading platforms. As we saw in Canadian business banking, our frontline expansion strategy is also delivering results in wealth. We added almost 200 financial planners and advisers since the end of fiscal 2024. In the most recent data, TD took 19 basis points of market share in financial planning with newly hired planners delivering strong growth. This month, we successfully combined our discretionary business in private wealth management.
This simplifies our business model, enhances our value proposition to clients and helps position us for outsized growth. It is expected to unlock $40 million in platform and operational efficiencies as outlined at Investor Day. And in insurance, we continue to build on our position as Canada's leading digital direct insurer with almost 80% of our clients digitally engaged, strong progress to our Investor Day target of 90% plus. We have significant growth aspirations for our insurance business, and we are mitigating the volatility that comes with that growth.
This quarter, we issued another innovative cat bond in the Canadian market, the first that offers protection against aggregate losses of small- and medium-sized cat events. Wholesale Banking delivered record revenue and earnings, supported by strong client activities across Global Markets and Corporate Investment Banking. The team continued to make progress on disciplined execution, achieving improved ROE and moderated year-over-year expense growth this quarter. Reflecting continued momentum, TD Cowen ranked in the top 10 in 10 categories in the 2025 Extel Global Fixed Income Survey and TD Securities was awarded the Best Trade Finance Bank in North America by Trade Treasury Payments.
Please turn to Slide 4. This quarter, we continue to make progress against our strategy to deepen relationships, make TD simpler and faster and execute with discipline. As we shared at Investor Day, TD has significant opportunities to grow franchise relationships across the bank. This quarter, we drove increased penetration rates in both consumer and small business credit cards in Canada and in our proprietary bank card in the U.S. We are also making progress on our deepening targets in TD Securities. We launched Synthetic Prime in the U.S. and Europe. Our clients have told us they want to diversify their prime providers and our robust balance sheet and capabilities position us well for this opportunity. Our target of $1 billion in value from AI over the medium term reflects both our progress to date and our confidence in what's ahead. A core tenet of our AI strategy is to build once and use many times, scaling AI through repeatable patterns that lead to faster AI deployments and reduced cost of delivery. We saw the benefits of this approach with our GenAI knowledge management solution, which we first introduced in our contact centers last year and have now deployed across our over 1,000 branches in Canada.
Questions that used to have colleagues jumping through screens are now answered in seconds. We are taking the same approach with agentic AI. We launched the initial scaling of an agentic AI solution to simplify the RESL pre-adjudication process. This provides the foundation for broader agentic AI adoption across RESL and other businesses. We are executing with discipline across the bank. Kelvin will share more details on our efforts to deliver structural cost reduction in his remarks. We have a clear strategy that is driving higher ROE with 4 consecutive quarters of ROE improvement in U.S. Banking and ROE up over 400 basis points year-over-year in Wholesale Banking. I remain confident that we will achieve the medium-term targets that we laid out at Investor Day. In fact, for ROE, we may get there faster than we expected.
At our current earnings, achieving a 13% CET1 ratio through share repurchases translates into approximately 100 basis points of ROE. Delivering on our $2 billion to $2.5 billion cost takeout would yield an additional 150 basis points of ROE. And all our businesses are laser-focused on driving ROE to their Investor Day targets. With these levers and our strong performance in Q1, I am confident in our path to 16% ROE.
Please turn to Slide 5. TD is the only Canadian company ranked in the top 100 most valuable brands in the world by brand finance, and we continue to invest to extend this leadership and deepen our client relationships. Earlier this month, we launched our new brand, reinforcing that in this complex digital-first world, TD will always be more human by delivering simpler, more intuitive and more connected banking experiences in every interaction and in every channel.
Thank you to our colleagues across the bank for your dedication and commitment. TD is back to winning because of you. With that, I will hand it over to Leo.
Thank you very much, Ray, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 6. As we enter into 2026, we remain focused on our #1 priority and continue to make good progress as expected against our U.S. AML remediation program. This quarter, we continued to improve the efficiency, the efficacy and the accuracy of our program. This month, our new KYC platform went live to our business users. This is an important milestone as it delivers a centralized platform that enables the collection and maintenance of customer information in a single know your customer profile. As we complete the full implementation of this new system in the coming months, we will gain better insights about our customers, establishing an important building block of a strong AML program.
In addition, as we've spoken about previously, we are continuing to work on additional AI and machine learning capabilities. We implemented machine learning models in our transaction monitoring system last year and additional models will be deployed in our program over the coming quarters. Finally, we rolled out an enhanced financial crime risk assessment methodology that is data-driven, resulting in a more sophisticated assessment of the bank's financial crimes risk. I'm pleased with the work that our teams have been able to accomplish, and I'm certain that we are building a sustainable program that will serve us well into the future. From a financial perspective, while investments will fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter, we continue to expect our AML remediation spend to be $500 million in fiscal 2026.
That said, the composition of our spend will gradually change towards validation work and look-back costs as we complete our remaining management remediation actions. With that, I'll turn it over to Kelvin.
Thank you, Leo. Please turn to Slide 7. Driven by robust top line momentum, coupled with disciplined execution, TD delivered a strong quarter with record earnings. Total bank PTPP was up 19% year-over-year after removing the impact of the U.S. strategic card portfolio, FX and insurance service expenses. We've shared the details on Slide 23. Revenue grew 11% year-over-year, reflecting growth across all of our businesses. At 43 basis points, total PCLs were within our guided range. Expenses increased 7% year-over-year with approximately 1% driven by variable compensation, foreign exchange and the impact of the U.S. strategic card portfolio. We delivered our third consecutive quarter of positive operating leverage.
Please turn to Slide 8. This quarter, we incurred restructuring charges of $200 million pretax driven by further workforce optimization. We have now concluded the restructuring program with total charges of $886 million pretax. We expect fully realized annual cost savings of $775 million pretax. Our restructuring program is one part of our broader efforts to drive structural cost reduction across the bank. As you heard at Investor Day, we are targeting $2 billion to $2.5 billion in annualized cost savings over the medium term. AI is helping power these savings as we scale through repeatable patterns driving faster deployment and reduce cost of delivery. Strong cost management and a deeper understanding of unit costs are also critical components of this effort.
In insurance, we expect to deliver over $150 million of claims cost reductions over the medium term through vendor optimization and AI deployment and fraud detection and process reengineering. This will drive reduced time lines for claims fraud detection and increase speed and accuracy for claims resolution, further enhancing the client experience. We're also making progress in wealth. Investments in process improvement, digital and AI capabilities are expected to reduce the time it takes to complete a financial plan by 50%, creating capacity for higher-value advisory and business development activities. This is just the beginning. We look forward to providing further updates as this work progresses.
Please turn to Slide 9. Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking delivered record revenue, PTPP, earnings, deposit and loan volumes. Average deposits rose 3% year-over-year, reflecting 3% growth in personal deposits and 5% growth in business deposits. Average loan volumes rose 5% year-over-year with 5% growth in personal volumes and 6% growth in business volumes. NIM was stable, up 1 basis point quarter-over-quarter. With good revenue and disciplined expense management, we delivered over 200 basis points of operating leverage. We made strategic investments to deepen relationships such as adding business bankers in priority markets and equally to create simpler and faster client experiences that also reduce structural unit costs, including our launch of the RESL pre-adjudication agentic AI capability that Ray shared. Going forward, we will take the opportunity to invest in our strategic priorities while continuing with disciplined execution. As we look forward to Q2, we again expect net interest margin to be relatively stable.
Please turn to Slide 10. In U.S. Banking, year-over-year, earnings were up 22%, PTPP was up 7% and ROTCE expanded by 330 basis points to 14.7%. Excluding sweeps and targeted runoff in our government banking business, deposits were up 1% year-over-year. Core loans grew 2% year-over-year, reflecting continued strength in bank card, home equity and middle market. Net interest margin was 3.38%, up 13 basis points quarter-over-quarter, driven by an adjustment for client deposit rates in the prior quarter and higher loan margins from improved product mix. As we look forward to Q2, we expect NIM to modestly increase.
Expenses increased 8% year-over-year, reflecting higher governance and control costs and employee-related expenses. As Ray mentioned, earlier this month, we completed the conversion of Nordstrom card clients onto our servicing platform. Going forward, for Nordstrom, TD will have a higher share of revenue and expected losses. Slide 22 provides an illustrative example of the accounting for our strategic card partnerships. As a result of the Nordstrom change and consistent with similar transactions, we expect the receivable adjustment of USD 145 million to be treated as an item of note in Q2. The Nordstrom conversion was fully reflected in the guidance that we provided at Investor Day. U.S. Banking is on track to achieve our target of USD 2.9 billion in earnings in fiscal 2026.
In addition, I wanted to highlight a change in the presentation of our financials for U.S. Banking. TD invests in tax advantaged entities to support the communities in which we operate while generating income tax benefits. Previously, losses on these investments were recognized in noninterest income, while the related tax benefits were recognized in provision for income taxes. Effective this quarter, to promote comparability with U.S. peers, we reclassified the losses from noninterest income to provision for income taxes in U.S. banking. In accordance with IFRS, we made offsetting adjustment in corporate segment so that there is no change in noninterest income or provision for income taxes at the total bank level. This change lowers the efficiency ratio in U.S. banking. As a result, we updated our medium-term target and now expect U.S. Banking to deliver an efficiency ratio in the mid-50s by fiscal 2029.
Please turn to Slide 11. In Q1, Wealth Management and Insurance delivered record earnings and assets. We saw market share gains across our businesses, led by 97 basis points of revenue share growth year-over-year in direct investing. Trades per day were up 10% year-over-year, driven by new client growth and deeper relationships. ETF assets surpassed $31 billion, up from $17 billion at the end of fiscal 2024 and well on our way to our medium-term target of $54 billion. In Insurance, we continue to focus on profitable growth, increasing ROE by 80 basis points year-over-year. Sequentially, expenses for the segment, excluding variable compensation, were down 2%, reflecting disciplined expense management. We are driving structural cost savings while investing for the future, including unifying our discretionary private wealth businesses and our new TD Easy Trade app.
Please turn to Slide 12. Wholesale Banking delivered record revenue and earnings driven by broad-based performance across Global Markets and Corporate and Investment Banking with strength in commodities, global equity derivative and advisory fees and equity underwriting. Overall, performance reflects the depth and diversification of the platform, combined with high levels of client activity and constructive market conditions. Impaired PCLs increased, reflecting a small number of borrowers across various industries. Ajai will share more detail shortly in his remarks. Expenses increased 5% year-over-year as we continue to invest in technology and front-office capabilities, spending to support business growth and higher variable compensation. Return on equity for the quarter was 12.6%, driven by strong revenue growth, moderating expense growth and disciplined capital management.
Please turn to Slide 13. Corporate net loss for the quarter was $153 million, a smaller loss than the same quarter last year, reflecting higher revenue from treasury and balance sheet management activities, partially offset by higher net corporate expenses.
Please turn to Slide 14. The common equity Tier 1 ratio ended the quarter at 14.5%, down 15 basis points sequentially. We delivered strong organic capital accretion this quarter. The bank repurchased 19 million common shares under its previous and current share buyback programs in Q1, which reduced CET1 by 38 basis points. As Ray said, TD's capital position is a competitive advantage. We remain committed to consistently returning excess capital to our shareholders.
And with that, I will turn it over to Ajai.
Okay. Well, thank you, Kelvin, and good morning, everyone. I was pleased with the bank's overall credit performance this quarter. Now let me turn to the results, starting on Slide 15. Gross impaired loan formations were 27 basis points, an increase of 4 basis points quarter-over-quarter. The increase was largely recorded across the wholesale banking and U.S. commercial lending portfolios related to a small number of borrowers across a range of industries, partially offset by lower formations in the Canadian commercial lending portfolio.
Please turn to Slide 16. Gross impaired loans increased 2 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 58 basis points or $5.59 billion. The increase was reflected in the U.S. commercial and Canadian consumer portfolios, partially offset by lower impairments in Canadian commercial.
Please turn to Slide 17. Recall that our presentation reports PCL ratios, both gross and net of the partner share of the U.S. strategic card PCLs. We remind you that U.S. card PCLs recorded in the corporate segment are fully absorbed by our partners and do not impact the bank's net income. The bank's provision for credit losses was 43 basis points, an increase of $57 million or 2 basis points quarter-over-quarter, driven by the Wholesale Banking segment, partially offset by lower provisions in Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking.
Please turn to Slide 18. Impaired PCLs were $1.16 billion, increasing $221 million quarter-over-quarter, largely as a result of credit migration in the wholesale and U.S. commercial lending portfolios related to a small number of borrowers across a range of industries, partially offset by lower provisions in Canadian commercial. More than half of the increase in the bank's impaired PCLs this quarter was due to a single borrower in the wholesale segment. We do not expect the level of impaired provisions in wholesale this quarter to be reflective of a typical run rate moving forward. The bank recorded a performing PCL recovery of $125 million, reflecting improvement in the macroeconomic forecast and migration from performing to impaired in the wholesale and U.S. commercial lending portfolios. The performing PCL recovery was primarily recorded in the U.S. Banking and Wholesale segments.
Please turn to Slide 19. The allowance for credit losses decreased $144 million quarter-over-quarter related to a $156 million impact from foreign exchange, improvement in the Canadian and U.S. economic forecasts, partially offset by higher impaired allowance in the wholesale and U.S. commercial lending portfolios. Now to summarize, the bank exhibited strong credit performance this quarter as PCLs were within the guidance offered at the end of last year. Additionally, we remain prudently provisioned with allowance coverage of gross loans at 99 basis points, including more than $500 million in reserves set aside for ongoing elevated policy and trade uncertainty.
Looking forward, while results may vary by quarter and are subject to changes to economic conditions, we continue to expect fiscal 2026 PCLs to fall within a range of 40 to 50 basis points. TD is well positioned to operate through a variety of economic scenarios, considering our prudent provisioning, broad diversification across products and geographies, our strong capital position and our through-the-cycle underwriting standards.
With that, operator, we are now ready to begin the Q&A session.
[Operator Instructions]
The first question comes from Matthew Lee with Canaccord Genuity.
2. Question Answer
If we assume you reach 13% CET1 ratio by the end of 2027 and your cost savings continue to improve and you achieve the earnings growth in your targets, I think my math suggests that you can get to that 16% ROE by the exit of 2027. Can you maybe talk about factors might prevent you from getting there or whether it's just a matter of accounting for the unknowns?
Thanks, Matt. It's Ray. Thanks for the question. As I said at the end of our Q4 results, I mean, we are definitely seeing good momentum coming out of, first and foremost, fiscal 2025, and you saw that momentum carry through. And you're seeing that play through on our ROE at 14.2% after the first quarter. The way I would think about it, Matt, is on some of the things that we control. If you think about our CET1 ratio getting down to the 13% by the second half of 2026 -- 2027, as I commented in my comments, that gives us another 100 basis points. We are well on pace on our $2 billion to $2.5 billion expense takeout and the discipline and the structural cost reduction. We're actually a bit ahead of schedule, I would say, on the things that we're focused on. That gives us another 150 basis points pickup on that. And so -- and if you look across our businesses for the quarter, every business at TD improved their ROE as per our Investor Day commitment.
So, what I would say is that we're certainly -- as I said even in our Q4 comments, we are ahead of pace as to what we thought during Investor Day, and our confidence is high on getting to the 16% ROE that the guidance that we gave. That's the way I would think about it.
Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just a quick one on the U.S. loan book. Total loans were down 9%, but core loans were up 2%. Can you just maybe help us understand what the areas of focus are in terms of growing that book in the U.S.? And when we should start thinking about core loan growth being to outpace the identified sales and runoffs?
So Matt, thanks for the question. So if you look at the core loan growth for the quarter, it was 2%. If I can break that down for you, we saw really strong consumer lending growth. As I prioritized in our Investor Day discussion, our credit card book, particularly our bank card book is a major area of focus for us. So just to give you a sense of the momentum that we've got in that segment, we saw 15% balance growth for the quarter. Unit sales were up 33% on a year-on-year basis. We use the term penetration rate as a critical indicator of the cards portfolio success, and we saw a 200 basis point increase in the penetration of credit cards to our deposit client base on a year-on-year basis. So we're making progress towards that plus 30% figure that we gave at Investor Day. And sales activities were strong coming out of the seasonal Christmas rush. So you put all those things together, we are pleased about our consumer lending growth anchored by that cards performance.
On the commercial side, a bit more of a tale of 2 cities. at the higher end, at the corporate mid-market business, we're seeing relatively good activity and loan demand. So our mid-market business, we saw 4% growth. And Ray, I think, commented in his comments, we saw 15% growth in actual commitments. So the pipelines look good at the top end of the -- at the larger corporate end of the market. Likewise, in our specialty business, higher education, which is a really important segment for us, we saw loan growth of about 5%. So at the higher end, we're seeing good loan demand and the economic momentum in the U.S. is translating into good loan growth.
Where we're seeing a little bit of sluggishness in the U.S. market broadly is at the small business and sort of the lower-end community banking level. That segment is growing a little slower. And I think that those businesses are just more susceptible to the trade uncertainty, the supply chain disruptions and just the current state of interest rates. So I think there, we're still seeing some muted growth. But when you take everything as a whole, I'm quite pleased with the 2% growth on balance. I would expect that growth rate to moderately accelerate over the next couple of quarters. And we should -- to your point around when should the entire portfolio switch over to a net growth position. We are targeting that in the third quarter, total loans, so that would include the -- those loans that have been identified for runoff, we would actually post net loan growth at the aggregate bank level in the U.S.
The next question comes from Gabriel Dechaine with National Bank Financial.
Yes. I just got a quick one here on credit performance because we saw the impaired going and performing going in a different direction here, and you did a good job explaining the -- what was going on in the impaired book and your expectations going forward. Just wondering about the performing release. I guess part of it is the U.S. some runoff, but what macro changes did you make that might have resulted in these pretty material releases?
Yes. Thanks, Gabe, for the question. So again, I'll start by saying our performance release, it's well founded, and it's been through all our governance processes. And there are really 2 drivers of that release. One is the macro changes. And if you go and look at our disclosures, you'll see the unemployment numbers have improved both Canada and the United States, and you'll see the GDP numbers have also improved. That drove part of the release, okay? The second part, actually don't even think about it as a release, okay? We built performing against names that were migrating. When that loan moves from performing to impaired, I have to reverse the performance and add it to the impaired. So those are the 2 component parts. But again, as I said, it's well founded.
The next question comes from Paul Holden with CIBC Capital Markets.
Two questions related to Leo's business. I guess, first is with respect to the NIM expansion, 13 basis points this quarter, guidance for modest expansion next quarter. I think that was the same guidance we got this quarter. So what drove the upside this quarter and the potential it follows through next quarter? And then second part of the question, with that good NIM expansion with you talking about loan growth starting to improve and crossing over to positive in Q3 and what I'm seeing good expense discipline, can we start to expect to see positive operating leverage and lower efficiency ratio out of the U.S. Bank in 2026?
So Paul, let me take both of those, and then maybe I'll give you a sort of a summary view on the aggregate U.S. performance. Let me start with the NIM. We delivered NIM of 338 basis points, up 13 basis points quarter-on-quarter, 52 basis points on a year-on-year basis. So obviously, a strong print. Really 3 factors. One, the remaining impact of all the loan repositioning work that we did last year, which obviously gave us a strong tailwind. Second, selective repricing activities across both the deposit and loan book as we adjust the overall balance sheet to its new size. And third, the tailwinds that we're enjoying from tractor on rates. So those were the 3 primary drivers. And that was offset ever so slightly by the repricing by the Fed rate cut.
As we look at the next period, I won't have quite as much tailwind from the bond repositioning activity because that's already reflected in our NII. But I till think that we'll have margin expansion opportunities that'll be more modest in nature.
And then as we think about the rest of the year, obviously, that tractor tailwind will still be there, but we'll have to absorb the Fed rate cuts that are planned for the second half of the year. So that's basically in a nutshell where we think overall NII is going to be. But as you saw, the net interest income number on an absolute basis from a revenue perspective was up 10% year-on-year. So we're really pleased with the momentum that we're seeing there in aggregate.
With regards to overall loan performance or the state of the business broadly, I couldn't be more pleased with the quarter. NIA $723, up 22% on a year-on-year basis and driven by both top line revenue growth and sound credit performance. I think it was a good solid profile. We are seeing acceleration in those critical loan areas that you mentioned, and I would expect that to continue over the next few quarters. But I do want to hit your expense point. A lot of effort is going into our expense strategies, expense -- strategic cost management strategies. As you would have seen this quarter, we did close 51 stores as we announced in the Investor Day.
So we are going to see distribution savings. We continue to lean into our vendor management programs with a sizable win this past quarter, which certainly will contribute to our expense run rate profile going forward. AI and some of the process automation work is still front and center. And we are beginning to see some degree of opportunities to at least change the resourcing mix associated with our remediation programs, all of which should create some downward pressure on expenses for the balance of the year. So you put the revenue momentum that we're enjoying now, the pricing discipline we've put in place, the expense focus that we have and will continue to materialize over the rest of the year, I feel quite confident with regards to the outlook for the rest of the year.
Okay. That's good. One follow-up, if you don't mind. Just looking at the quarter-over-quarter change in branch count down roughly 5%, but FTE up roughly 2.5%. Maybe you can just talk quickly into in terms of where you're adding headcount, and then I'll stop there.
Paul, I'm glad you brought it up because I should have mentioned it before, but we had a really important transaction that we closed. We successfully converted the Nordstrom portfolio onto our platform. So effective this past weekend, we are now servicing all of Nordstrom onto our platform. So the FTE increase that you saw was essentially additional call center representatives, our collection staff and fraud to be able to manage that expanded volume flow that now we'll be managing directly. Previously, it was managed in Nordstrom. So we've taken -- we've expanded our staffing to be able to support that portfolio.
The next question comes from Sohrab Movahedi with BMO Capital Markets.
I just wanted to -- a question for Sona. If I remember correctly, I think at the Investor Day, the medium-term type of targets for your business would have had efficiency ratios, which I think you're at right now and ROEs around, I think, where you're at right now or at least where in this quarter. So is this as good as it gets for your business from those sorts of metrics? Or is there still room for improvement here, Sona?
Thanks, Sohrab, for the question. Yes, you're referencing our Investor Day targets. So both on efficiency ratio and ROE, we're targeting the 40% range. Sohrab, maybe if I just step back and look at both of those. So our efficiency ratio, obviously, this quarter, both from a revenue and an expense perspective, we're pleased with the performance this quarter. As I look at what we talked about at Investor Day, there's a number of levers that we have to manage efficiency ratio and improve efficiency ratio. We talked about distribution optimization. We talked about tech platforms and procurement. But what has become an even greater driver, I would say, since Investor Day is how we will deploy AI to favor efficiency ratio.
Maybe I'll just spend a few seconds on that. Our approach there is really to drive simple and fast experiences, but they come with real P&L outcomes. One example I would share with you. So you heard me talk a lot at Investor Day about speed and specialization. It's absolutely core to our RESL strategy. And so we recently deployed and started to scale agentic AI into the RESL workflow. That's taking pre-adjudication processes from 15 hours down to minutes. So it's delivering speed to decision. As we said, speed was a big strategy, a better colleague experience that helps us win more business. And of course, it takes out structural cost as well.
So I think what you will see is a number of things that we will do will benefit efficiency ratio and will benefit ROE over the long term. And these are short-cycle cases that we get up and down and deliver real value. So back to your point, I think we're very pleased with the performance, and we'll continue to lead in, and we're making very good progress on our Investor Day targets across the board.
And I think if I heard you correctly, but correct me if I'm wrong, since Investor Day, you would have -- you would move these targets higher basically, lower expense ratio and higher ROE just because of the traction on AI. Is that fair?
Not quite. I think you will see us lean heavily in. Our targets, we hold on our specific targets, but the momentum and progress is incredible. We just see an engine that is humming and we see lots of possibilities.
Maybe I'll just jump in for a second also. What I would add is that the benefits that we think we will get now from an AI perspective, how we put out the $1 billion, $500 million in revenue, $500 million in expenses, as Sona outlined with one example with the agentic. We now see how much that can be scaled across the organization across every business line. So if you think about this mortgage example, it can be applied in credit cards, can be applied in small business banking, can be applied in commercial banking in the U.S. And so I do think we're going to get more from the value from an AI perspective beyond the $1 billion that Sona commented on. And then again, we're seeing good momentum, better momentum than what we had thought during Investor Day as -- which was only 6 months ago. So I think a great start to the year and lots of momentum. And then if the macro environment continues, we do think we have upside both to our ROE at the enterprise level and to the EPS guidance that we provided.
There are no more questions in the queue at this time. I would now like to return the call to Mr. Raymond Chun for closing remarks.
Well, thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate your questions and comments. In Q1, we continued our strong momentum, delivering robust top line growth, positive operating leverage and record earnings. ROE was 14.2%, up 100 basis points year-over-year as we continue to execute against the strategies and targets that we've shared with you. Fiscal 2026 is off to a strong start, and I'm confident TD will continue to deliver for its shareholders. I look forward to connecting with all of you again next quarter. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Gewinn: Rekordgewinn $4,2 Mrd im Q1 2026.
- EPS: $2,44 je Aktie.
- ROE: 14,2% (↑100 Basispunkte YoY).
- Umsatz: Erlöse +11% YoY; bereinigtes Ergebnis vor Steuern und Rückstellungen (Pre‑tax, pre‑provision profit, PTPP) +19% YoY (nach Anpassungen).
- CET1: 14,5% (−15 Basispunkte q/q); Share‑Buybacks laufen (ca. 84 Mio Aktien zurückgekauft über 2 Programme).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Kapitalmanagement: Ziel, CET1 auf ~13% bis H2 FY2027 durch Rückkäufe zu managen; umfassende Buyback‑Programme laufen.
- Kostendisziplin: Abschluss des Restrukturierungsprogramms (Q1 Belastung $200M; gesamthaft $886M) mit erwarteten jährlichen Einsparungen von $775M pretax; Ziel $2–2,5 Mrd jährliche Einsparung mittelfristig.
- Wachstum & Tech: Beschleunigung in Kartengeschäft und Wealth; AI‑Ziel: $1 Mrd mittelfristiger Wert (≈ $500M Umsatz‑ und $500M Kostenwirkung) zur Skalierung von Effizienz und Produktivität.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- PCL‑Erwartung: Prognose für Fiskaljahr 2026: 40–50 Basispunkte Provision für Kreditverluste.
- NIM‑Erwartung: In Kanada stabil; U.S. NIM 3,38% (↑13 bps q/q) und erwartet moderat weiter ansteigend in Q2.
- Sonstiges: Nordstrom‑Kartenkonversion führt zu einer Q2‑Anmerkung (Receivable‑Anpassung ~USD 145M); U.S. Banking Ziel: USD 2,9 Mrd Gewinn in FY2026.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Weg zu 16% ROE: Nachfrage nach Treibern und Risiken; Management sieht Hebel in CET1‑Reduktion, Kostensenkungen und ROE‑Verbesserungen in allen Geschäftsbereichen, bleibt aber vom Makroumfeld abhängig.
- U.S. Kreditwachstum: Kern‑(core)‑Kredite +2% YoY vs. Gesamtloans −9%; Fokus auf Karten, Mid‑Market und Home‑equity; Ziel, auf Aggregat‑Nettowachstum in Q3 zu kommen.
- Credit‑Releases & Impaired‑PCLs: Performing‑PCL‑Recovery getrieben von verbesserten makro Annahmen (bessere Arbeitsmarktdaten, GDP) und Migrationseffekten; impaired Anstieg primär durch wenige einzelne Kreditnehmer im Wholesale/U.S. Commercial.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Starker Start ins Fiskaljahr: robustes Umsatz‑ und Ergebniswachstum, operative Hebelwirkung und klarer Kapitalrückgabe‑Fokus. Hauptrisiken bleiben makroökonomische Entwicklungen und vereinzelte Kreditereignisse im Wholesale/U.S. Commercial. Für Aktionäre bedeutet das: solides operatives Momentum kombiniert mit aktiver Kapitalrückführung, aber Sensitivität gegenüber Konjunkturveränderungen bleibt bestehen.
Toronto-Dominion Bank — RBC Capital Markets Canadian Bank CEO Conference
1. Question Answer
Next session. But before we begin, I've been asked to tell you that Raymond Chun's comments today may include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from forecasts, projections or conclusions in these statements. Listeners can find additional details in the public filings of TD Bank Group. Okay. Raymond, thank you for joining.
Thanks for having me here, Darko.
Always a tough one to have with a bank that had an Investor Day so close to and then a good fourth quarter. So -- and your fourth quarter, in particular, was interesting in the sense that when I went through the results, there was an amazing amount of guidance in your numbers. So a lot of what I'm going to ask today is maybe for some refinement on a few things.
And I do want to go back to the Investor Day and the plan. So what I wanted to sort of touch on is -- some of the things you said in the last fourth quarter call was pretty interesting in terms of credit card penetration, referrals from wealth, the strength in mortgage originations. So I wanted to touch on knowing a little bit about sort of how that's coming about so quickly, so strongly, the momentum that you pick, what's changed? How is execution going? And how should we think about those things as we head into 2026?
Sure. Lots there. I could take 35 minutes just on that one question there, but I'll try to maybe get it down to 5, everybody. We had our Investor Day, which was in September. I mean, in some ways, it feels like it was a lot long -- lot much longer, but it's not that long ago.
Let me start by saying if -- as we come out of the Q4 earnings season, the momentum that we have at TD coming out of the Q4 would be better than I would have anticipated at Investor Day back in September.
And so part of what I said on the call is around EPS and ROE. Do we think that there is some tailwind opportunities in those metrics, assuming that the macro environment conditions stay relatively stable, I would say yes. And so I do think we are further down the journey than I would have anticipated already at this point, even though Investor Day was only in September. So the execution portion -- and so what gives me that sort of confidence or the proof points that you would say that the momentum is better than we would have said. I mean when we exited 2025 on the Canadian Personal Banking, which is certainly the area of the organization that from an organic growth perspective is driving a lot of our growth.
We were -- from a year-on-year growth perspective, we were #1 in personal deposit growth, #1 in credit card growth and #1 in RESL growth.
In the Wealth Management business for direct investing, which is a critical business for us in Wealth Management, we had 27% account growth on a year-on-year basis, 37% growth in trades per day. I mean these are huge numbers on top of already sort of on a year-on-year basis. So I'd say the momentum there. Then you look at TD Securities and Q4 at $2.2 billion in revenues, we continue to see the benefit of the fully integrated North American global platform that we've introduced, and we're just getting started on that journey.
I'd say the cost management piece, and I'm sure we'll talk about cost management, Darko, is the piece that we are early days, but I'm excited about. We are doing cost management differently under my leadership and moving to this unit cost management and driving structural costs out, and I'll be happy to talk about that.
On the RESL side, I think it's been a very positive story. Honestly, for me, winning on RESL absolutely does matter. right? If we look at our RESL portfolio, for our clients that have a mortgage with TD, they are 2x more likely to have a checking account, a savings account and a credit card, right? And so this whole -- remember, the 3 big themes that we have at TD Bank that came out of the Investor Day strat review, right, that we laid out was, number one was deepening our relationships across every business line with our clients. Number two was a simpler and faster bank. And number three was disciplined execution.
I would tell you, having a mortgage matters when you're trying to deepen relationships across the organization. And we are doing things differently on the mortgage side to drive that growth. The mix is one. We've gone from sort of more on the broker side historically to a mix move towards proprietary mortgages. And so we're adding 500 mortgage specialists inside of our 500 largest mortgage branches. We have 1,000 MMS, and these are our mortgage mobile sales force that are the hunters. Historically, those individuals would have been hunting externally while the branches were taking care of the organic growth, Darko.
Last year, what we did is we brought the mortgage sales force back into the right? And so what I would tell everybody is that the turnover rate in the personal banking inside of a branch is every 18 to 24 months, you see the personal bankers sort of rotating through. There's probably 30% of mortgages that no matter how well you train that group, think self-employed, think rental properties, multi-units, multiple properties. They're just more complex for someone that's only been on the job for 18, 24 months.
Get the mortgage experts, the 1,000 colleagues that are TD proprietary to do that, and that's exactly what we've done. And even in a down home market in 2025, we had record closed deals in mortgages in TD Bank, and it's because of some of these changes that we've made on the RESL side.
And then from a profitability perspective, what you've seen Sona and team has put significant attention towards managing the profitability and the margins. And you're seeing margin expansion on mortgages on both acquisition and renewal, right? And so the product itself is becoming much, much more profitable from a margin perspective, deepening the relationship, it's key. And then for us, making sure that we become the bank of choice from a relationship banking is critical as part of our strategy.
And so how do you manage the spread, especially with all these renewals going on? Is it just a function of the rates are in a better place?
I think it's a combination of a few things. One is -- and I'll speak specifically to TD Bank, right? I would say, historically, over the last number of years, part of our portfolio was the mix of the product, meaning we had a higher percentage of our mortgage portfolio in mortgages versus HELOCs. Right? And so disproportionately higher. And so we are certainly rebalancing that with our clients. And so you'll find better margin on the HELOC portfolio versus the mortgage portfolio. And so you're seeing that.
For us, we were over concentrated a little bit too much on broker, from a broker channel perspective. And as you move back to the proprietary channel, you're starting to see margin expansion on that piece of it. And so -- and yes, pricing matters, right? And so we've introduced much, much more sophistication using machine learning, but we've also made real-time pricing engines available for the broker channel. And so as much as rate matters to a broker, speed matters incredibly. And so speeding up that entire RESL process, Darko, has had huge benefits to us from -- not just from a closing of deals, but from a profitability.
Okay. Great. That's great insight. Maybe switching gears a little bit, thinking about commercial loan growth. I've heard mixed views on commercial going into '26. Some people are saying, look, it's still uncertain, pens are down. But I'm hearing we're -- there's also some green shoots. How do you see it in Canada and in the U.S.? And where do you see actually the better opportunity in '26 for your franchises in Canada or the U.S.?
On the commercial banking side, if you look at our Q4 numbers, you'd see that we actually had good momentum in commercial banking on both sides. On the -- in Canada, you saw deposit and loan growth somewhere in that 5%, 6% in Q4. What I would tell you in Canada, we are making significant investments in distribution expansion and that's right across the board.
And so remember, if you go back to the Investor Day presentation, what we've said is we're adding 1,200 wealth advisers in Canada, we'll be adding 880 -- that's over the next 3 years. We're going to add 880 business bankers, and that's a mix between small business bankers and commercial bankers in Canada. And we're going to add 1,000 specialists inside of our branches, the 500 mortgage specialists, but also 500 investment specialists inside of the Canadian.
On the U.S. side, we're going to add 500 wealth advisers in wealth, 200 commercial bankers in the United States. And so part of the accelerating our growth, where we underinvested potentially as a bank over the last number of years is on our frontline distribution sales capabilities, and that's where we're actually redirecting some of our investments.
And so if you think commercial bank specifically, -- if you go back again to Barb's Investor Day presentation, we were the fifth largest commercial bank 20 years ago. We've grown that business now to be the #2 largest commercial bank in Canada, right? And that's in both commercial lending, also the small business lending.
But we fundamentally believe that local leadership matters and having feet on the ground in the local markets with the specialized skills in the local markets is a differentiator for TD Bank. And so adding all of these bankers in local markets across the country where we've done the analysis, we have the demand.
From a risk perspective and a risk appetite, risk curve, you'll see no change at TD Bank in all of our businesses across the organization when it comes to risk appetite or risk curve. But we need more bankers on the ground across all of our businesses, not just business banking. And that would be true both in Canada and the United States.
But which area do you think you're more optimistic on with respect to loan demand? Would it be Canada or the U.S.?
I think loan demand right now, Canada. I mean the numbers that I'm seeing would predict that, but we are growing in the United States and especially in our mid-market businesses in the United States and our partnership between Leo's U.S. commercial banking business and Tim Wiggan's TD Securities business, we're seeing terrific opportunities to build volume in those areas. We haven't had that type of partnership in those 2 businesses ever before, and we're seeing that now between the commercial bank in the U.S., Darko, and TD Securities with the fully integrated Cowen integration now complete.
And where are you on this journey of adding all of these frontline staff? I mean it's just very early days, right?
Very early days, but I would say on the business banking side, we added 200 business bankers last year. And again, that's between commercial banking and small business banking.
On the wealth management side, we added 50. So we actually intentionally slowed the machine a little bit on the wealth. We're going to now accelerate that in Canada on a go-forward basis. And on the U.S. side, I'd say early days from a wealth management perspective. And about half of our growth in each of these areas will be sort of internal colleagues that are moving up inside the organization.
So think about personal bankers or the investment specialists becoming financial planners. Think about financial planners becoming investment advisers and those types of things. So you see a natural movement there, small business bankers becoming business bankers on that side of it. And that would be true in the U.S. And then the other half is external recruiting that we're seeing coming in from other organizations.
And that might be tough in this environment. Markets are up. It's expensive. It's...
You know what, it's -- listen, it's competitive for sure, especially in the wealth management space. But I do think our value proposition that we're presenting to the Street and the opportunities is resonating, and we're seeing actually good take-up.
So lots of frontline expansion brings you to costs, right? I mean so -- and one of the interesting things that we heard about at your Investor Day was a far more focused, I would say, focused view on costs. You talk about structural costs. Maybe you can talk a little bit about where you are in that journey. And since Investor Day, have you unearthed more opportunities? And what can you say to us about the cost.
Absolutely. And I do think cost management is very, very important, as you saw what we said at Investor Day. I was clear that we're looking at cost management under 6 buckets, and it's structural costs. And so those buckets, distribution transformation, AI automation, data technology, you're going to get moderation of our expense spend overall. You've got the global resourcing strategies that we have.
And what am I missing? I'm missing one, right? But if I look across those buckets, the biggest thing that I would say to everybody, and I'll give you a couple of examples, is moving to a unit cost management, right? And so -- procurement would be the last one, right? And so when you move to a unit cost management, it is fundamentally different, how you're trying to take the real structural cost out of company permanently, right?
And so historically, when you would have heard organizations talking about some sort of an expense management, cost management, you'd see project spends being cut, you'd see marketing spends being cut. You might see FTE hiring freezes. All of that, as I've said, is like a fad diet, right? It all comes back in time, right? And so what you got to do is say, how do you take the run rate cost of your business completely out?
And let me give you a perfect example. On the mortgage side of the business, here's what we're doing, right? And you can replicate this into the top 20 processes across TD Bank. There's 3 buckets of costs when you look at mortgages. There's adjudication, there's funding and then there's sort of end-of-life discharge. Those are the big buckets of cost. And so if you look at TD Bank's unit cost on adjudication of a mortgage 2 years ago, that was $514 per unit.
Funding was $124 per unit. Discharge was $24 per unit. And through the use of AI, automation, modernize, redoing our processes, policies and what have you, you fast forward to 2025, Darko, that adjudication cost went from $514 down to $390. That's down 21% now. And it is a fundamental restructuring cost that's permanent. If you look at our funding, it's gone from $124 down to $97. And for discharges, we've gone from $24 down to $19. That's 24% and 23%, respectively. That's not the end of the journey.
The exciting part actually starts in 2026 when we start to layer in Agentic AI on top of that. And so in the next 2 quarters, you're going to see Agentic AI layered into each one of those buckets. And I give you -- on the discharge component, as you layer Agentic AI and you actually make the entire process where you don't involve people, we're going from the $19 that we're at today, and we can take out another 50%, we'll be down to $9 per unit on the discharge. So you go from $24 two years ago down to $9 on that.
If you look at adjudication that we're at $390, the big part of adjudication is sort of that pre-adjudication, and then any of you that have purchased a home, you see like think about your down payment confirmation, income confirmation, purchase agreement validation. That's a lot of prework that needs to get done. Historically, that has taken 1.5 days to 2 days. That is now down to minutes under our new process. And so you just layer this stuff in, Darko, and these are permanent reductions, and we do a lot of these.
Now you can take what we just did in the discharge side of the Agentic AI, and there's dozens of applications of that exact process of the Agentic that you can apply to other things in the organization. And an example that I've been giving people is to say, I ran the -- when I ran the insurance business, if you had a glass claim that came in, and we have tens of thousands of glass claims. Today, that's all done manually by people.
Tomorrow, that same Agentic AI process that we apply to discharges, you could apply to processing and paying out glass claims through an Agentic AI process. So lots of opportunities. And so the $1 billion target that we set for AI, we've done -- we did 75 use cases in 2025, netted us $170 million of value. We have 20 -- sorry, $200 million booked of initiatives that's going to drive $200 million of value for AI-related initiatives in 2026 and $1 billion overall over the medium term. And I actually think one of the things that I'm seeing is that there's more opportunity than even what I had thought initially back on Investor day.
So that's great detail. I was busy writing down a bunch of room. But in addition to the structural work that you're just talking about, you took restructuring charges in '25. And as the way we measure it, restructuring charges as a percentage of your base, expense base, whatever, it was relatively high, right? So some of the feedback I've been getting is, wow, this is a bit of a left turn for TD, so focused on cost, Darko, is it too aggressive for TD? Is there friction? Are there -- what do you say to those peers -- because I literally look back and I say, TD has the most aggressive cost targets. It just is what it is. But how do you allay those peers that it's...
On the restructuring piece, so we've said $825 million of restructuring charge, will be finished that at the end of Q1 will be the last sort of [ ION ] treatment. Going forward, no more restructuring charges on that. That's going to net us -- that's going to generate $750 million pretax annualized benefits from the $825 million restructuring charge. That's that.
What I would tell you is this, if you go across TD Bank, there is a real excitement. And what I would tell people is usually when you talk about cost management or expense management, that doesn't naturally fit into excitement. Right? And so -- but what we're positioning inside the organization is to say, it's not -- we are not reducing your project budgets. We are not reducing our hiring freeze of FTE. I'm not cutting marketing spend.
What we're going to do is restructure the waste that's in the organization and go to this unit cost. It allows us to invest and innovate. It allows us to add the distribution FTE that I just talked about. There is excitement across the organization that we're actually investing in the things that we need to invest in Darko while we bring this discipline.
And the last part of our strategy was disciplined execution on cost management, capital management. and governance and control, right? And that has really resonated across the organization because it isn't just we're going to take it all and starve the businesses. Usually, when you get into this expense management push, the worry is, are you starving the businesses and then ultimately, from an innovation, competitiveness, growth, what happens there. You saw in our commitment at the Investor Day from an MTO perspective, we are driving earnings growth throughout the MTO and have high confidence in our commitments and targets that we've set for the MTO.
And maybe just a final sort of touch on that is I thought that at Investor Day, I think in total was $2 billion to $2.5 billion of cost takeout, inclusive of the restructuring, but that a large part of that would fall to the bottom line. Is that still the case today?
That's still the case because what I've said to everybody and externally, but also internally, we don't need more project spend. We have sufficient budget for what we need to get done on that piece of it. And so where we are going to take some of it is to invest in the areas that we think can accelerate our growth on a go-forward basis. But think about something like distribution transformation, everyone. That to me is TD Bank probably, in my opinion, certainly in Canada, probably just the same in the United States.
We have more opportunity in the distribution transformation than any of the other Canadian banks. Part of that is just a model that over time, TD Bank, and it's been a great model, and we're going to continue to be a leader from a branch perspective, but our longer hours or comfort, convenience has driven more transactions into our branches to the tune of about 30 million more over-the-counter transactions happen today at TD Bank branches in Canada and the U.S. than our next closest competitor.
And the vast, vast, vast majority of those transactions, everyone, can be done on the mobile device today without one more dollar of technology spend. That's bill payments, depositing a check, moving money, so on and so forth, right, setting up your direct deposit. And so we have a huge opportunity to migrate those transactions and move forward. In the contact center, we get 2 million calls a month in phone channel calls every single month.
And the vast majority of those calls are simple banking transactions that can be done through a mobile digital device today, right? And so if you look at all of that, that's just pure cost takeout that we can do and actually goes right down to the bottom line. And I believe it's a win for customers. I keep pushing to my team, certainly in the middle of winter, I don't know how it is actually a good thing for clients to have to go into a TD branch in minus 20 degrees and 3 inches of snow to deposit a check. We have that capability.
So you will see a significant push in TD Bank to improve the experience for our clients, but also to educate our clients on how to use the digital mobile tools and the capabilities and channels that we have, Darko, and that will be a big benefit for clients, but it will also be a good benefit from a shareholder perspective.
Okay. So one of the things that sort of has been helping the Canadian banks and certainly TD with a large deposit base has been tractoring improvement in mortgage spreads and all that's positive. And I think a lot of that -- the expectation is that a lot of that will continue into 2026. I think one thing that's different, though, is maybe the Fed -- the U.S. Federal cut rate.
So maybe you can talk about -- because you have a big U.S. business and you repositioned the balance sheet there. So maybe you can talk a little bit about how we should think about the environment in the U.S. with rates going down, how that might affect or not affect your net interest income and net interest margin.
So on the NIM perspective, I would tell you, I mean, we have in TD economics, we've called for 2 rate reductions in the United States, probably in the first half of the year, let's see. But lots can change as the administration makes changes, right, as we go forward. But that's what we have in our plan.
In Canada, we have rates staying stable for 2026. And so I do think a little bit of a different environment. If you look at the U.S. from a NIM perspective, we do think our guidance on the NIM, at least certainly in the first quarter, but as we look forward, still moderate expansion of NIM in the U.S. And that's part of that is the bond investment portfolio that we executed. The benefits of that will continue to play through.
And again, we'll continue to manage the interest rate environment and the tractors on that side of it. I'd say Canada, a little bit different guidance. It's first half, second half. I'd say the first half guidance around NIM has been more to that it's going to be stable. And then in the second half, you'll start to see some potential NIM expansion in Canada for TD Bank, talking TD specific.
And the expansion is driven by...
Well, you've got a combination of expansion that you're seeing in our RESL margins, right? Our on-off tractors are still positive in both the U.S. and Canada. And so you're going to still see some tailwinds there. But there are still some headwinds that we're managing on the rates perspective. And again, I'll preface all of this by the USMCA is still the big uncertainty. And depending on where that lands, some of these, obviously, macro issues can change quite rapidly and quite significantly. But at least from the perspective that we would have is that, that environment is better today than it was last year and the Canadian government and Prime Minister Carney, I think, is doing all the right stuff right now to manage that, and we'll hopefully see where that lands.
And so that's NII. What about the fee side of the business? How should we think about fees?
We've been very clear. If I go back to the Investor Day, I think one of our biggest opportunities that TD Bank has is to increase our fee revenue. We are still too much from an interest rate perspective in NII. And so you're seeing that the businesses, first and foremost, that we are investing to accelerate is between TD Securities, Wealth Management and TD Insurance. all right? And so those 3 businesses, as you heard at Investor Day, have significant upside growth opportunities and it is to drive the fee income side. And you're seeing that.
So whether it's TD Securities, record revenues on a quarter. Every quarter, they're producing record revenues. We're still early in that journey. From a wealth management perspective, record earnings in 2025. And I think you're going to see that continue as we make investments in these 1,200 wealth advisers. We're also launching new capability in direct investing, the next generation, what I call TD Easy Trade to go after new to investing clients that are sort of go toe-to-toe with Wealthsimple. You're going to see that play through.
And then I think in the insurance business, we just fundamentally have, I believe, the winning model with a direct model that is a digital model. And when I ran the insurance business 6 years ago, everyone, and this is part of the structural cost reduction, that business was the #1 direct investing business back then and it still is today. But we were a phone channel business exclusively. And so all sales would have been done through the phone channel. And so as we grew the TD Insurance business 6 years ago, what did you have to do? You have to add more people in the contact center, more underwriters, more people in the back-office operations.
We made the decision 3, 3.5 years ago to modernize the entire tech stack of the insurance business at TD Insurance. It is the most modern tech stack that is available in Canada for home and auto insurance. And last year, 50% of all policies underwritten in TD Insurance for home and auto insurance were done digitally with straight-through processing, no human intervention. That goes from shopping to binding to all your servicing, issuers of your digital pink slips.
So as you go forward, we've taken a massive variable expense business, and we've made it into a fixed expense business at a marginal cost of pennies at the next policy level. That's not true for traditional brokers. You've got to pay large commissions for every single deal. That gives us a significant cost advantage as we move forward in the insurance business. And that's why you saw the ROE that I know surprised a lot of you as to how much ROE the insurance business the TD generates on a go-forward basis. That will get even better, everybody.
When I think about AI, TD Insurance is further down the AI journey than any other part inside of TD Bank. And so whether that's in pricing sophistication to fraud, to claims management, all of those areas will become significantly more efficient leveraging AI as we move forward, and they are the furthest down that journey.
Okay. At this point, I think I'm going to quickly rush over to the questions.
Sure. Sure.
So first question, once your loan reduction efforts in the U.S. are complete, where -- which loan categories do you think will have the highest growth potential in '26 and '27?
Yes. So I think, again, we have finished the -- for the most part, we finished the balance sheet restructuring. And so we've got the $52 billion of asset cap room. And so we are definitely back into trying to drive the growth as per the question. I will say everybody -- I want to make sure that everybody understands the AML remediation in the United States, it is -- Leo and team have done a terrific job in making sure we get to the milestones and the commitments, but we are not at end of job. And that is still #1 priority in the United States and for TD Bank is to make sure in 2026 that we complete what we need to do and actually deliver on the commitments that are still required around the AML remediation side.
So I just want to make sure that even though the conversation today is more around growth, that is still the #1 priority and has to be, and we won't be distracted from that.
On the growth side, I do think from a middle market commercial banking perspective and small business banking, we see significant opportunities, not just to grow, but to grow it more profitably. And so what you're seeing in the United States is a significant move towards ROE right? And so we have gone through and looked at every single client on our books, whether it's in TD Securities or whether it's in the commercial bank, both Canada and the United States to make sure what do we need to do with each one of those clients to deepen the relationships to get to the ROE hurdles that we want to get to.
And so it's a combination of growing, but deepening the relationships that we have to actually be more from an ROE. And we need -- those are the 2 businesses that I would say we said it at the Investor Day. From an ROE perspective, both of those targets are at 13%. And it's great to see for Leo and the U.S. Bank, this shift to an ROE focus last year, they improved ROE 180 basis points year-on-year. And you saw in the TD Securities business, another business that's heavily shifted towards an ROE focus. Q4, we ended the quarter at 12.6% ROE, and both of those have a medium-term target of 13%. And so again, 2 businesses that to me are ahead of the pace that we had thought we'd be at during Investor Day.
Okay. Interesting question. So digital banking and stablecoins looking to disrupt traditional branch banking. How do you defend against this? And how big a threat do you view these trends?
So if you look at stablecoin, and I think there's maybe 2 separate questions. There's the digital banking question, which I'll get to. And then there's a sort of digital assets, stablecoin. I think you've got to break that whole digital assets piece into 3 buckets, everyone. You've got tokenized deposits, you have stablecoin and you have crypto, right? And so I would say the piece that I think has the highest opportunity and the one that certainly from a TD Bank perspective, we'd be most focused on immediately is on tokenized deposits. I think there's huge benefits. It's regulated.
The benefits to -- from a P&L perspective, from a client perspective, it's an on-us transaction. So I think tokenized deposits is certainly real and it has terrific opportunities. The stablecoin piece, lots of, obviously, attention, and that's the one that's certainly in the U.S., the Genius Act. What you're seeing that played through in 2025 is sort of regulation around stablecoin, which is actually a good thing. You're seeing Canada quickly coming up behind that.
And so the question that I think everybody needs to think their way through on stablecoin is you need interoperability. You don't need -- you can't have 200 different stablecoins out there. Otherwise, it's a very little value. And so what's the platform or what's the way in which the ecosystem will allow interoperability of stablecoin and at different currencies, whether it's a U.S. dollar stablecoin, Canadian dollar stablecoin.
And so you're seeing lots of discussion in the industry around various different operating models as to how you might launch stablecoin. And it's different potentially in a country like Canada, where you have a concentration of banks versus in the United States where you have over 4,000 banks, right? And so a lot more to be played out, but that's where the noise or a lot of attention.
And then on crypto, that to me is much, much more of an investment and certainly on the direct investing side, and that's more of a sort of a different conversation, a retail conversation that I think about it, right? So that's the way I would think about that.
On the digital transformation on banking, what I would say to everybody is, listen, I think if you're going to win in the future, you have to be able to win on not even just digital, you have to win on mobile, right? And that's just the way we live our lives today. And I always say to people, it doesn't matter like there's only one thing that I drive back to my house in the morning, if I forget, and that's my mobile phone, right?
And so we have to make sure that TD Bank creates mobile experiences that are simple, fast and engaging. And it matters because if you think of all the new to Canada that's coming to Canada, where are they all coming from? They're all coming from countries that are much, much more advanced, Asia, Europe, India, Africa. These countries, they lead with mobile in many, many cases. And so I do think getting that mobile leadership matters to Darko as you go forward.
So we're at the last few minutes. Over to you for some key takeaways for investors.
I appreciate that. First of all, I think last year when I was here for my first time at the same point, I sort of said, if I'm back next year, judge us on whether or not we delivered on sort of the 4 big critical initiatives that matter to TD.
And the first one was ensuring that from an AML that we do what we say we're going to do and deliver from an AML perspective and rebuild our trust relationship with regulators. And I think Leo and team have done that.
The second part I'd say is we need to restructure the United States from a balance sheet perspective, so we have the asset cap room, we had the investment bond portfolio that we needed to execute and then pivot the organization to be much, much more ROI focused, and I'd give them a checkmark on that.
The third part that we said is that we're in the midst of doing a strategic review. We'll roll that out at an Investor Day and be more transparent with all of you on guidance targets and what we plan to do as an organization as we go forward. And I think that's really, really resonated, not just externally, internally with our colleagues, the move to deepening relationships, building a simpler and faster bank, leveraging AI automation and driving discipline around cost management, capital management and governance and control has mattered, and we've simplified that.
And I'd say finally, and probably the most important part that I thought for 2025 was making sure that we retain our best talent, that we create an environment that attracts top talent and we start to rebuild the trust between our critical stakeholders that includes yourselves, our investors, our regulators, our clients and of our colleagues. And I would tell you today, not only is there excitement across TD Bank, the pride is back within TD Bank and this idea of winning at TD has really, really resonated. So I would say, feel great about delivering on the things that Darko that we said that we would deliver in 2025. And that's part of what we want to be known as a management team is that what we say we will do.
And so as I think about 2026 and when I'm back here next year, I'm hopeful that there's probably 3 things. And the first thing I would say is hold us accountable to the targets that we set at Investor Day for 2026.
On EPS, on ROE, on cost management, expense management, positive operating leverage that we deliver what we say we're going to deliver. I think you should hold us accountable.
Number two is clear proof and evidence that we are building deeper relationships, a simpler and faster bank and more discipline on how we run our organization.
And I would say three is that we are fundamentally operating our capital differently as we go forward. And so we start with always organic capital and we are more disciplined now around the organic capital. We are exiting noncore businesses, and you've seen us do that across 2025. But even in the businesses that we are operating in, holding them to ROE standards and making sure that they have a road map on the organic side, investing in businesses organically that are accretive from an ROE perspective and add value to the shareholder.
And then two, on the capital piece, what I've said very clearly and very publicly is if we do not have a need, if there is excess capital after the organic investments that we will return consistently capital back to the shareholders on an ongoing basis. And so I think it's -- those are the 3 things that I would say will guide us in 2026 when I'm back here next year.
Excellent. Thank you very much.
Thank you everyone.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Toronto-Dominion Bank — RBC Capital Markets Canadian Bank CEO Conference
Toronto-Dominion Bank — RBC Capital Markets Canadian Bank CEO Conference
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: TD meldet deutlich stärkere Momentum seit Q4 als beim Investor Day erwartet: organisches Wachstum in Kanada (Einlagen, Kreditkarten, RESL) und Schub in Wealth sowie TD Securities treiben Performance; Management fokussiert auf tiefere Kundenbeziehungen, vereinfachte Prozesse und striktes Kostenmanagement.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Distribution: Massive Personalaufstockung: geplant u.a. 1.200 Wealth‑Advisers (Kanada), 880 Business‑Banker, plus 1.000 branchenspezifische Spezialisten (500 Mortgage, 500 Investment).
- Mortgage‑Shift: Mix verschiebt sich weg vom Broker‑Kanal hin zu proprietären Hypotheken; höhere Margen bei HELOCs und bessere Abschluss‑Geschwindigkeit durch Machine‑Learning Pricing.
- KI & Kosten: Unit‑Cost‑Ansatz: permanente Kostensenkungen in Mortgage‑Prozessen (Adjudication $514→$390, Funding $124→$97, Discharge $24→$19) und Einsatz von Agentic AI zur weiteren Halbierung einzelner Prozesskosten.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Konkrete Fortschritte: 200 Business‑Banker und 50 Wealth‑Advisers wurden bereits hinzugefügt; Rekord‑Mortgage‑Closings 2025 trotz schwachem Markt.
- Kostenmodell & AI: $825M Restrukturierungsaufwand, abgeschlossen Ende Q1; daraus $750M p.a. Vorsteuer‑Nutzen. 75 AI‑Use‑Cases 2025 ergaben $170M, $200M ist für 2026 gebucht; $1B Ziel mittelfristig.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Loan‑Momentum: Analysten fragten nach Canada vs. US — Management sieht kurzfristig stärkere Nachfrage in Kanada; US‑Mittelsegment bietet aber Chancen, sobald Asset‑Cap‑Room genutzt wird.
- Risiken & AML: AML‑Remediation in den USA bleibt Priorität und möglicher Beschränkungsfaktor für Wachstum; Anleger sollen Fortschritt genau beobachten.
- Kostenaggressivität: Kritische Nachfragen zur Härte der Kostensenkungen; Management betont strukturelle, permanente Maßnahmen statt kurzfristiger Kürzungen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit für Investoren: TD zeigt operative Fortschritte: organisches Wachstum, messbare Kost‑ und AI‑Effekte sowie klare ROE‑Fokussierung. Positiver Hebel für EPS/ROE bei stabiler Makro‑Lage, aber Umsetzung (AML, Rekrutierung, AI‑Rollout) und makro‑/Zinsrisiken bleiben entscheidend.
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the TD Bank Group Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Ms. Brooke Hales, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Ms. Hales.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to TD Bank Group's Fourth Quarter 2025 Results Presentation. We will begin today's presentation with remarks from Raymond Chun, the bank's CEO; followed by Leo Salom, Group Head, U.S. Retail, after which Kelvin Tran, the bank's CFO, will present our fourth quarter operating results. Ajai Bambawale, Chief Risk Officer, will then offer comments on credit quality, after which we will invite questions from analysts on the phone.
Also present today to answer your questions are Sona Mehta, Group Head, Canadian Personal Banking; Barbara Hooper, Group Head, Canadian Business Banking; Tim Wiggan, Group Head, Wholesale Banking; and Paul Clark, Senior Executive Vice President, Wealth Management. Please turn to the next slide.
Our comments during this call may contain forward-looking statements, which involve assumptions and have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially. I would also remind listeners that the bank uses non-GAAP financial measures to arrive at adjusted results. The bank believes that adjusted results provide readers with a better understanding of how management views the bank's performance. Ray, Leo and Kelvin will be referring to adjusted results in their remarks. Additional information about non-GAAP measures and material factors and assumptions is available in our 2025 annual report. With that, let me turn the presentation over to Ray.
Thank you, Brooke, and good morning, everyone. We ended the year with another strong quarter, which I'm looking forward to discussing in a minute, along with the progress we've made against our new strategic pillars. First, I'd like to share my perspective on the external environment. There continues to be a high degree of uncertainty around tariffs and Canada-U.S. trade dynamics with important impacts, particularly to industries facing the highest tariffs such as steel and aluminum.
While economic uncertainty has impacted business and consumer confidence, Canada's economy and employment remain largely resilient. New government actions such as the Canadian Mutual Recognition Agreement, defense spending increases, the major projects office and other measures to incentivize private sector and foreign investment will help support economic activity as Canada prepares for CUSMA renegotiations.
As one of Canada's largest employers serving 1 in 3 Canadians, we will continue to work with our clients and governments to build a stronger economy. In the U.S., the economy continues to perform with businesses and households benefiting from regulatory and monetary policy changes, and we're seeing a pickup in investment activity in some sectors. With the strong presence across the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. serving more than 10 million American businesses and households, we are focused on helping them achieve their financial goals.
Across our business, TD is well positioned to manage through this period and help our clients successfully navigate a changing landscape. Now before I move to our performance, on behalf of all of our colleagues on the Board, I want to share our deepest condolences with the family and friends of Nadir Mohamed. We were fortunate to have him as a director from 2008 to 2023. And like in all of his other professional endeavors, he made a tremendous and lasting impact on our organization. Our thoughts are with everyone who had the privilege of knowing him.
With that, let's turn to the next slide. At our Investor Day, we described our strategy to deepen relationships, make TD simpler and faster and execute with discipline. I'm looking forward to providing updates on our progress each quarter. Our single greatest growth opportunity is to deepen relationships with clients across our businesses. This year, we achieved record personal credit card penetration rates and delivered record closed referrals from the Canadian Personal Bank to wealth, and we're just getting started. In TD Securities, we are leveraging our platform to provide a full suite of services to our clients, including acting across advisory and financing products for National Fuel Gas' recent acquisition of the CenterPoint business.
As you heard at Investor Day, AI is a massive opportunity for TD, and we have concrete plans that are already delivering clear outcomes. This year, we implemented approximately 75 AI use cases that generated $170 million in value. These use cases span from transforming loan underwriting to creating intelligent leads to deepening relationships to meet more of our clients' needs. For next year, we expect the AI use cases to generate $200 million in incremental value, including use cases to reimagine end-to-end processes as described at Investor Day.
We are prioritizing our AI investments with use cases focused across categories such as customer acquisition, customer insights and risk management. We are also delivering disciplined governance and controls. In fiscal 2025, fraud losses were down 26% year-over-year, driven by ongoing investments in fraud modernization across capabilities, data, systems and processes. We have a clear strategy that will accelerate growth and returns and drive long-term shareholder value.
I remain confident that we will achieve the medium-term targets that we laid out at our Investor Day. This year, we delivered 5% earnings growth, much stronger performance than we anticipated at this time last year when we expected it would be challenging to deliver earnings growth through a transition year. Our year-over-year expense growth moderated this quarter, and we delivered positive operating leverage. We are on track to deliver 3% to 4% expense growth and positive operating leverage in fiscal 2026, aligned with the targets we shared at Investor Day.
TD delivered a strong Q4, and we are carrying that momentum into fiscal 2026. We expect to achieve the 6% to 8% EPS growth and 13% ROE targets for fiscal 2026 that we provided on Investor Day. And we see potential upside to these EPS and ROE targets from our strong business momentum and the outcomes we are driving by deepening relationships, delivering a simpler and faster bank and executing with discipline, supported by tailwinds if positive macroeconomic conditions continue and from PCLs if trade and tariff uncertainty reduces. Both Ajai and Kelvin will provide more details on our fiscal 2026 outlook in their remarks.
Please turn to Slide 3. In Q4, the bank delivered a strong quarter with earnings of $3.9 billion, EPS of $2.18 and ROE up 110 basis points year-over-year. We saw robust fee and trading income in our markets-driven businesses and volume growth year-over-year in Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking. TD delivered positive operating leverage this quarter. PCLs were stable quarter-over-quarter, reflecting strong credit performance. Ajai will share more details shortly in his remarks. We have moved from an annual dividend review cycle to a semiannual cycle to support alignment of shareholder return with earnings growth.
Today, we announced a $0.03 dividend increase, bringing our dividend to $1.08 per share, reflecting confidence in TD's future growth and earnings power. As we shared at Investor Day, we expect earnings growth to accelerate over the medium term. The bank's Q4 CET1 ratio was 14.7% with strong capital generation in the quarter. As of quarter end, we were over 3/4 of the way through our current $8 billion share buyback with 65 million shares repurchased for a total of over $6 billion. We continue to expect to complete this share buyback by the end of the first quarter of 2026.
At that time, we will announce -- at that time, as we announced at Investor Day and subject to regulatory approval, we plan to initiate a new share buyback of $6 billion to $7 billion. Through these 2 share buyback programs, we will effectively return all the capital generated from the Schwab sale to our shareholders. For fiscal 2025, we delivered a total payout ratio of 93%, including share buybacks and common share dividends.
Please turn to Slide 4. In Q4, we saw strong momentum across our businesses. Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking delivered record revenue, deposits and loan volumes. We had a record year in digital sales for day-to-day banking products, continuing our momentum in mobile leadership. Real estate secured lending posted robust sequential growth, delivering higher origination margin and record Q4 originations.
In cards, we delivered strong momentum with the best year of cards acquisition in nearly a decade. In the Business Bank, loans were up 6% year-over-year, reflecting growth across our commercial business. We also saw strong small business checking account openings, up 10% year-over-year. In U.S. retail, we delivered continued momentum and core loans were up 2% year-over-year. U.S. bank card balances were up 14% year-over-year with the strongest account acquisition in 7 years.
In our U.S. wealth business, total client assets were up 10% year-over-year with mass affluent client assets up 21% year-over-year. In addition, for the ninth year in a row, the bank ranked #1 in small business administration lending in its footprint as we continue to serve our communities from Maine to Florida. Leo will provide updates on our U.S. balance sheet restructuring and AML remediation in his remarks.
Wealth Management delivered record earnings and assets. We had a particularly strong quarter in direct investing with new accounts up 27% and trades per day were up 37% year-over-year, respectively. As you heard at Investor Day, direct investing is an acquisition engine for the bank and drives outsized opportunities to deepen relationships. This year, we saw record flows, $3.9 billion from direct investing to advice. We saw record sales of $1.6 billion in ETFs this quarter.
For the year, TD's ETF market share is up 48 basis points. In Insurance, we continue to build on our position as Canada's leading digital direct insurer. This quarter, we saw record digital adoption, supported by the launch of the new usage-based program for auto insurance. This quarter, Wholesale Banking delivered a record $2.2 billion in revenue, showcasing the power of our client franchise and breadth of capabilities as we benefited from a more constructive backdrop, especially in capital markets.
We also generated record net income and ROE over 12% and executed on RWA optimization opportunities to grow revenue well above RWA growth for the quarter and fiscal year overall. Another indicator of our strong momentum, we rose to #6 in the U.S. corporate access rankings, which demonstrates the strength of our relationships across corporate and institutional clients and our ability to deepen our share of wallet.
Please turn to Slide 5. Before I turn it over to Leo, I want to thank our colleagues across the bank. Every day, you come to work with a commitment to our clients and the dedication to our bank that is truly remarkable. At Investor Day, we outlined a clear strategy to accelerate growth and deliver peer-leading performance. You, our colleagues, are the source of TD's strength and why I'm confident we will deliver. With that, Leo, over to you.
Okay. And thank you, Ray, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 6. It's now been more than a year since we announced the global resolution, and we've made significant progress against our U.S. AML remediation program. As you've heard me talk about previously, we have an outstanding AML leadership team guiding us through this critical work, and we've completed a number of key milestones this year, such as the deployment of the next-generation transaction monitoring system, improved technology for investigation practices and the implementation of our first AI-powered financial crimes automation platform and machine learning case triage model, which improved our team's productivity and risk assessment accuracy.
This quarter, we deployed another round of machine learning enhancements to our transaction monitoring system. These AI and machine learning tools are not only improving the efficacy and accuracy of our program, they are important levers in creating an efficient and sustainable program that will serve us well into the future. We also introduced a new and enhanced system for submitting unusual transaction referrals, improving the end-to-end process from intake through investigation through reporting.
UTRs are a key tool in facilitating early detection and by increasing both the accuracy and efficiency with which our teams submit these reports, we are doing our part in detecting, reporting and preventing criminal activity. Turning to our look-back activities. I'm very pleased to say that this quarter, we made good headway against the suspicious activity look-back reviews required under the OCC Consent Order.
Importantly, thanks to the hard work and dedication of our teams, we've completed the majority of our U.S. management remediation actions this year, in line with our previous commitment. That being said, we're not at end of job and AML remediation remains our top priority with significant work ahead and important milestones to come in 2026 and 2027. For fiscal 2025, total U.S. BSA AML remediation and governance and control investments in the segment were $507 million, in line with our guidance. And while investments will fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter, we continue to expect similar investments in fiscal 2026.
Now I'd like to give you an update on the balance sheet restructuring activity. So please turn to Slide 7. You will recall this effort has 2 critical objectives. First, to strictly comply with and maintain a buffer to the asset limitation; and second, to ensure that we can continue to serve our clients and communities as their needs evolve. We made meaningful progress against our objectives this quarter. At the end of the fiscal quarter, total assets were $382 billion, reflecting continued runoff of noncore lending portfolios. We've achieved and exceeded the 10% asset reduction that we announced on October 10th, 2024, creating $52 billion of capacity versus the asset limitation.
With the actions taken to date, coupled with selective actions in fiscal 2026 and beyond, U.S. Retail has the capacity to grow core loans at a rate consistent with our historical performance through the medium term without risking a breach to the asset limitation. As disclosed in the third quarter, we completed the U.S. investment portfolio repositioning by selling lower-yielding investment securities and reinvesting the proceeds into similar composition of assets at higher rates.
During the fourth quarter, we identified additional bonds and sold approximately $7 billion notional for an upfront loss of $274 million pretax. In the aggregate, through our investment portfolio repositioning, we have sold approximately $32 billion notional for an upfront loss of $1.6 billion pretax. The investment portfolio repositioning generated an NII benefit of approximately $500 million pretax in fiscal 2025 and is expected to generate an NII benefit of approximately $550 million pretax in fiscal 2026.
We expect our investment portfolio repositioning, together with our asset reduction program to help us improve return on equity through fiscal 2026 and deliver on our target of 9.5% ROE. We aim to deliver approximately $20 billion of RWA release, which will help support our medium-term target of 13% ROE. With that, let me turn it over to Kelvin now.
Thank you, Leo. Please turn to Slide 8. TD delivered a strong quarter. Total bank PTPP was up 25% year-over-year after removing the impact of the U.S. strategic card portfolio, FX and insurance service expenses. We've shared the details on Slide 26. Revenue net of ISE grew 15% year-over-year or 12%, excluding the $388 million net negative impact of severe weather-related events in the prior year, reflecting growth across all our businesses.
Expenses increased 10% year-over-year with approximately 1/3 of the growth driven by variable compensation, foreign exchange and the impact of the U.S. strategic card portfolio. We delivered positive operating leverage while taking the opportunity to accelerate investments to drive business growth. Impaired PCLs were relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, reflecting strong credit performance and performing provisions were also stable quarter-over-quarter.
Please turn to Slide 9. Through our restructuring program, we are reducing structural costs and creating capacity to invest to build the bank for the future. We expect to conclude the restructuring program next quarter with approximately $125 million pretax in additional charges for a total expected program size of approximately $825 million pretax. We identified additional opportunities to drive productivity, including U.S. store optimizations as part of the distribution transformation described at Investor Day and impacts from organizational reviews. We expect to generate higher savings from our restructuring program with annual run rate savings now estimated at approximately $750 million pretax.
Please turn to Slide 10. Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking delivered record revenue, deposit and loan volumes. Average deposits rose 4% year-over-year, reflecting 3% growth in personal deposits and 5% growth in business deposits. Average loan volumes rose 5% year-over-year with 5% growth in personal volumes and 6% growth in business volumes. Strong loan growth across our businesses this quarter capped a record year in RESL proprietary channel originations and in retail auto finance originations.
Net interest margin was relatively stable quarter-over-quarter. The impact of balance sheet mix was partly offset by higher RESL origination margins. Tractor on and off rates were offset by rate reduction. As we look forward to Q1, with similar drivers, we again expect NIM to be relatively stable. Expenses increased year-over-year, reflecting higher employee-related expenses and other operating expenses.
Please turn to Slide 11. U.S. Retail sustained business momentum and continue to execute against critical deliverables. Deposits, excluding sweeps, were down 1% year-over-year and were up 1% excluding targeted runoff in our government banking business. Core loans grew 2% year-over-year, reflecting continued strength in bank card, home equity and middle market. Net interest margin was 3.25%, up 6 basis points quarter-over-quarter, driven by higher deposit margins, higher loan margins from U.S. balance sheet restructuring and normalization of elevated liquidity.
As we look forward to Q1, we again expect NIM to moderately expand. Expenses increased USD 84 million or 5% year-over-year, reflecting higher governance and control investments and higher employee-related expenses, partially offset by costs associated with the extension of the Nordstrom program agreement last year. Overall, we continue to expect U.S. Retail expense growth in the mid-single-digit range this year.
We remain focused on productivity initiatives to help fund investments in our core franchise. These include the conversion of Nordstrom strategic card customers onto our servicing platform in the first half of fiscal 2026 and investments in our digital and mobile capabilities and technology modernization.
Please turn to Slide 12. In Q4, the Wealth Management business serves almost 2.7 million clients fired on all cylinders. We saw client growth, net asset growth, strong trades per day and market appreciation. We saw strong fundamentals in insurance with double-digit premium growth in general insurance in fiscal 2025 and more than 3.5 million quotes, which drives future client acquisition. For the Wealth Management and Insurance segment overall, revenue net of ISE was up 39%, with approximately 2/3 of the growth driven by the impact of prior year catastrophe claims. Expenses were up year-over-year, reflecting higher variable compensation, technology spend supporting business growth and employee-related expenses.
Please turn to Slide 13. Wholesale Banking delivered record revenue and net income, driven by broad-based growth across Global Markets and Corporate and Investment Banking. This quarter, we benefited from a constructive backdrop, especially in capital markets, and our pipeline of future deals remains robust. Reported expenses include acquisition and integration-related charges for TD Cowen. We do not expect these charges to continue going forward.
Adjusted expenses increased year-over-year, reflecting higher variable compensation and spend supporting business growth, including technology. These investments are part of the strategy we outlined at Investor Day. We are continuing to mature our platform to support our ambition to become a top 10 North American investment bank.
Please turn to Slide 14. Corporate net loss for the quarter was $195 million, largely flat year-over-year. Higher net corporate expenses were offset by higher revenue from treasury and balance sheet management activities. Please turn to Slide 15. The common equity Tier 1 ratio ended the quarter at 14.7%, down 15 basis points sequentially. We delivered strong internal capital generation this quarter, which was partially offset by RWA growth, excluding FX. The bank repurchased 19 million common shares under its share buyback program in Q4, which reduced CET1 by 33 basis points. And we continue to expect to complete our current share buyback by the end of Q1, subject to market conditions.
Please turn to Slide 16. At this time last year, we noted that 2025 would be a transition year for the bank. Throughout the year, we took charges as we restructured our U.S. balance sheet. We do not expect balance sheet restructuring charges to continue going forward. Looking back over the year, I'm pleased with -- that we largely delivered what we said we would deliver in 2025. And in many cases, we delivered more.
Even with a prudent reserve build for policy and trade uncertainty, fiscal 2025 earnings were up 5% year-over-year. And reflecting our commitment to return value to shareholders, we bought back over $6 billion in shares this year, helping drive EPS up 7% year-over-year. As Ray said, TD is entering fiscal 2026 in a position of strength. We expect to achieve our fiscal 2026 targets with upside potential driven by strong business momentum and execution against the strategy we laid out at Investor Day, supported by tailwinds if positive macroeconomic conditions continue and from PCLs if trade and tariff uncertainty reduces. With that, Ajai, over to you.
Okay. Thank you, Kelvin, and good morning, everyone. Our key message for the quarter is that credit results for the bank are strong. Please turn to Slide 17. Gross impaired loan formations were 23 basis points, a decrease of 3 basis points or $256 million quarter-over-quarter. The decrease was largely recorded across the wholesale banking and U.S. commercial lending portfolios, partially offset by higher formations in Canadian personal and commercial.
Please turn to Slide 18. Gross impaired loans were stable quarter-over-quarter at 56 basis points. Please turn to Slide 19. Recall that our presentation reports PCL ratios, both gross and net of the partner share of the U.S. strategic card PCLs. We remind you that U.S. card PCLs recorded in the corporate segment are fully absorbed by our partners and do not impact the bank's net income. The bank's provision for credit losses was stable quarter-over-quarter at 41 basis points as higher provisions in the Canadian Personal and Commercial segment were offset by lower provisions in the wholesale and U.S. Retail segments.
Please turn to Slide 20. Impaired PCLs were $943 million, increasing $39 million quarter-over-quarter, driven by the Canadian and U.S. consumer lending portfolios, including the impact of seasonal trends in the U.S. card and auto portfolios. Performing PCL was $39 million, a decrease of $28 million quarter-over-quarter. The current quarter performing build largely reflects the adoption impact of a model update in our Canadian credit card portfolio, partially offset by improvement in the Canadian and U.S. economic forecasts.
Please turn to Slide 21. The allowance for credit losses increased $40 million quarter-over-quarter, reflecting the adoption impact of a model update in our Canadian credit card portfolio and a $47 million impact from foreign exchange, largely offset by lower impaired allowance in the Canadian commercial and wholesale lending portfolios, driven by resolutions and some improvement in the Canadian and U.S. economic forecasts.
Now in summary, the bank exhibited strong credit performance in the fourth quarter, reflected in lower gross impaired loan formations and stable gross impaired loans and PCLs. Our fourth quarter credit results capped off a strong fiscal 2025 as elevated performing provisions for policy and trade uncertainty were offset by good underlying credit performance, resulting in a full year PCL rate of 47 basis points, stable year-over-year and within the guidance we offered at the start of the year.
Looking forward, while [indiscernible] quarter and are subject to changes to economic conditions, we expect PCLs to be in the 40 to 50 basis points range, an improvement from the 45 to 55 basis points range guided for fiscal 2025. Though economic uncertainty remains elevated, TD is well positioned considering our prudent provisioning, broad diversification across products and geographies, our strong capital position and our through-the-cycle underwriting standards. With that, operator, we are now ready to begin the Q&A session.
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from John Aiken at Jefferies.
2. Question Answer
Sorry about that technology. Ajai, I know that most of the deterioration on the domestic consumer portfolio came out of residential mortgages and really no risk on that front. What I was hoping that you might be able to explain to me is the dynamic where we've seen degradation on the residential mortgages year-over-year, but we really haven't seen the HELOC portfolio show any -- really any degradation. What are the dynamics behind that? And would incremental impairments on residential mortgages, when will that start to impact the HELOC portfolio?
Yes. No, thanks, John. Let me talk more generally about Canadian housing and our asset quality, and that should give you very good color on what's going on. So you would have seen that our Canadian housing outlook is actually slightly better. And the reason it's slightly better is that there is pent-up demand and the job market is also a little better. Our customer profile continues to be strong. And again, this is across all of RESL, HELOC and residential mortgages. If you look at some of our stats, and I'm very focused on what's the distribution and what's in the tails, we have less than 1% of our uninsured Canadian RESL portfolio which scores less than 650 and LTV greater than 75%, okay?
And if you look at some of the other metrics like our uninsured current LTVs, again, they're low, like at 56%. Now let me just turn to quality, okay? And I'm seeing this quality broadly across residential mortgages and HELOCs. And I look at things like delinquencies across both those asset classes and -- or sub-asset classes, they are stable, okay, quarter-over-quarter. And I'm not seeing huge differences between residential mortgages or HELOCs. And if I look at the greater than 90-day delinquencies, it's up 1 bp quarter-over-quarter at 15 bps. And that 15 bps is a pre-COVID number. Again, charge-offs across both these books very, very low.
Impaired PCLs, yes, are slightly higher. But if I were to quantify that, that's $6 million, okay, very low. And then I think you talked about gross impaired loans. The gross impaired loans are slightly higher. I think that number has gone up $55 million or $60 million. I don't remember the distribution between residential mortgages and HELOCs, but what's occurring there, that's actually vintages from '22 to '24 that were originated at higher rates. So that's where we're seeing the migration, and that's probably what you're talking about. And that's coming largely from the marginal segment. So again, some uptick in residential mortgages. But again, if you ask me, am I concerned about that portfolio? No, I think that portfolio is a very strong portfolio. So hopefully, I've given you enough color and tried to answer your question as well.
The next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala at Bank of America.
Maybe for Kelvin or Ray, just in terms of capital, when we look at the CET1 at 14.7%, half of retained earnings going into dividends, half going into buybacks, I guess, would be the way to think about it. Do you think you can flex this capital ratio into -- I think you've talked about mid-13s over the next year via RWA growth? Or should we expect the pace of buybacks to materially increase over the next few quarters?
Ebrahim, maybe I'll start it off and then pass it over to Kelvin. I would say that as per my comments, I do think that there are opportunities and tailwinds as we head into fiscal 2026, both on the EPS side and from an ROE perspective, Ebrahim. But I said I preface that with making sure that the macro conditions prevail and then certainly from the uncertainty that we have around some of the tariff and trade uncertainty.
But as you saw in our Q4 results, the momentum of the businesses, I think, will have a strong play with respect to ROE. With respect to capital, as we said in our Investor Day, we are definitely taking a very different -- disciplined approach on capital allocation. First and always, the priority is capital organically to be allocated. And that's looking at, Ebrahim, all of our existing portfolios, the noncore businesses, and you've seen the actions that we've taken.
We'll continue to go through that and make sure that any of our existing businesses that are noncore do provide appropriate returns, and we're looking at that. And then making sure that we're deploying the capital even within our organic businesses to the ones that have the most accretive ROE on a long-term basis to give shareholder value. And then we've said very publicly at Investor Day that we will continue to consistently return capital back to shareholders if we don't see -- if we don't have a need on an organic perspective. So on that, I'll pause there and maybe hand it over to you, Kelvin, to talk about RWA.
Sure. It's Kelvin. So as Ray said, first, we plan to complete our existing share buyback program by the end of Q1 and then initiate the next buyback program of $6 billion to $7 billion, subject to regulatory approval. And we will strive to grind down our CET1 ratio as much as possible, subject to market conditions. And I think the issue is that we continue to spin off and generate significant capital accretion every year. Again, it all depends on market conditions. But right now, we're seeing that it is still -- we're not getting to 13% yet in '26, but maybe in '27.
That's helpful. And if I can have a follow-up for Leo, maybe on Slide 6, Leo. So I just want to make sure I understand this correctly. I understand you need to demonstrate sustainability, nothing needs to break in a material way. But just hypothetically, if we go through all of '26 through the sustainability review, I'm just wondering in a world where there was no big sort of leakage in terms of all the systems that you put in place. Is there anything different that needs to happen in 2027? And I'm asking this in the context of a U.S. regulatory framework that's becoming a little bit more pragmatic and not sort of belaboring banks that have had issues in the past. I'm just wondering, is there a scenario where assuming you check all the boxes in '26 on sustainability, where maybe the asset cap could get reviewed as early as '27?
Yes. No, thank you very much for the question, Ebrahim. I won't comment with regards to the timing of any sort of relief. But I will -- I just want to maybe provide a little bit of color to your question. I think to your point, I think we've made really good progress on the delivery of the management actions. And I've iterated some of the areas where we've made progress, whether that's the transaction monitoring platform, the work that we've done on the customer risk rating tools, the AI tools.
So I think we feel very good about the residual risk reduction that we've actually brought forward in terms of the overall AML program. But as I've said before, I think we've got a couple of stages. Everything we do, every management action we do is going to be subject to internal challenge and ultimately to internal audit validation. And that's an important process. Much of that will take place in 2026. And then thereafter, as you know, we're working very closely with the monitor and as well, we're working with the regulator to ensure that we can demonstrate sustainability over the long term.
Both of those stages are an important part of the process. So I think being able to demonstrate that not only we've implemented the right actions, we've reduced residual risk, but that we can demonstrate that over time will be critical in terms of earning release from the consent order eventually and then potentially any interim relief. So I think we're making good progress at this point. We'll keep you abreast of the progress over the next few quarters. But at this point, I feel very comfortable with the AML remediation plan.
The next question comes from Gabriel Dechaine at National Bank.
The margin outlook more stable or relatively stable, whatever. In Canada, I'm just wondering because a few of your peers, I mean, there's a bit of a mixed bag, frankly, but some peers are talking about and exhibiting a wider -- benefit from wider mortgage spreads. And I'm wondering if that's something that could factor into your outlook and surprise on the positive side.
Then on expenses, you had guided to 5% to 7% growth this year, came in at 10%, including 10% in Q4. And you talked about some year-end investment undertakings that you took advantage of the strong revenue growth. That's fine. I'm just wondering about 2026. You're guiding to mid-single digits now. You've taken another restructuring charge. Those investments you made perhaps help your efficiency performance. Are you -- you should be more capable to deliver? Are you more committed as well is the question?
Thanks, Gabe. Sona. Maybe I'll start with your first question on Canadian margins and specifically RESL. And I can share a little bit more on what's underlying our NIM. Kelvin had already alluded to the 3 factors. If I start out in RESL, we had a really good volume growth quarter. And what I'm particularly pleased to see is we're staying true to our strategy where we're anchoring on speed and specialization to drive growth, but with incredible pricing discipline.
And so again, that enabled us to drive sequential origination margin expansion. So that's obviously positive to NIM. But then when I step back and look at overall Canadian, CAD P&C NIMs, that strong loan growth outpacing deposits, that naturally has a balance sheet dilutive impact to NIM. And then finally, tractor on-off, Kelvin alluded to, is an important factor. And when we look at that, the magnitude of the NIM benefit that we see is really quite dependent on the maturing tractor rate. And so if I go back -- yes, sorry, go ahead.
That tractor tailwind is sort of flattening out, I guess. Is that what you're saying?
Yes, in a sense. And like that really is reflective of the maturing tractor profile. So if I go back several years ago, when rates were the lowest, we locked in less tractors through prudent treasury management. And so as we fast forward to today, our tractor on-off lift was largely offset by the recent Bank of Canada rate cut. So like in some total, many factors, but that's what's driving stability in NIM.
So I'm not quite clear on the mortgage commentary then some other banks are being quite specific that it's going to be good. They originated a bunch in 2021, 2022 that were -- it was a very competitive environment and the renewals are coming in at higher spreads. That's not something a dynamic that will work in your favor?
No, absolutely. It is something that we are seeing, Gabe. It's been several quarters. we've had positive expansion. And so as this accumulates, that becomes a broader tailwind.
The other thing, Gabe, I think you'll see in our mortgage portfolio, and Sona has commented on that on a number of occasions is just the mix of the mortgages, right? And so you're going to see more and more proprietary mortgages that are booked through our proprietary channels, whether it's our branches or our MMS, which are both proprietary and obviously, better margin in those, and you're seeing that margin expansion in our residential book while we continue to take market share and loan and mortgage growth, as you saw on a quarter basis.
So I think it's a good story from both a volume perspective, but also from a mix and margin expansion in the RESL book that you're going to continue to see favorability as we play through.
All right. Then on the expenses...
Just on the -- just on your expense, the second part of your question, Gabe, on the expense side, let me just sort of walk you through a little bit. On the 5% to 7% guidance that we provided at the beginning of the year, if I sort of take you back, I mean, that was with the guidance that we thought and Kelvin commented in his comments that we thought earnings was going to be relatively flat on a year-on-year basis, and we delivered a 5% earnings growth.
So I think some of the expense that you see growth on that side of it is due to the outperformance on our earnings growth. I'd say the second piece is where we've been saying that you're going to start to see moderation of our expenses on a quarter-over-quarter basis, and you saw that from a Q3 to Q4 moderation of our expenses. And so if you factor in the variable costs and the FX that Kelvin said, we're probably down to about a 7% expense growth on Q4 and definitely trending in the right direction to get us to the 3% to 4% expense growth in 2026, and I have high confidence we're going to deliver on that.
And where that confidence comes from is the 6 buckets of expense categories that we outlined in the Investor Day, Gabe, where we have -- that was a bottoms-up exercise, and we actually have identified initiatives and tactics in each one of those 6 expense buckets, and we've already started to make progress. And so the $900 million of the $2.5 billion expense takeout that we've committed to over the medium term -- $900 million of that is in 2026, of which $500 million is the restructuring that carries from 2025 to 2026 and the incremental $400 million, we already have clear sight lines into that.
And then I'd say, finally, what's really important that we said in our Investor Day is that we continue to deliver positive operating leverage. And you're seeing that for the second consecutive quarter, TD Bank has delivered positive operating leverage, and we expect to have that continue in fiscal 2026. So on your question about conviction and commitment, absolute on what we said in the Investor Day and cost management and the disciplined execution around that is one of our strategic pillars.
The next question comes from Doug Young at Desjardins.
Hopefully, this will be relatively quick. But Leo, you set out a target at the Investor Day, and thanks, Ray and everyone for all the other targets and guidance provided in the remarks. But Leo, you set a target of USD 2.9 billion NIAT for fiscal '26 at the Investor Day. Just wondering how you're feeling about that as you sit and look at today and all the different variables, macro rates, balance sheet restructuring expenses. Can you unpack that?
Sure, Doug. Maybe I can just ask you to take a look at the quarter as sort of an indication of the momentum going into 2026. We're really pleased with the quarter revenue growth of 7%, and that was driven by a 7% growth in NII on 6 basis points worth of NIM expansion. But also, we had about an 11% growth in fees, where we saw service fees, our lending fees and wealth management all contributing to a double-digit growth rate. And I do think that's a sustainable momentum as we go into 2026.
Expenses, we did very aligned -- to Ray's point, we did see moderation in the expense growth profile in the fourth quarter, expenses were up 5%, but we did manage positive operating leverage of 232 basis points and our commitment and our guidance of mid-single-digit expense growth stands, we feel quite comfortable with that. And then as Ajai outlined, I think from a PCL perspective, PCL came in at $220 million, which was down on a quarter-on-quarter basis and down year-on-year, and it was the lowest level of PCL that we've had since the last quarter of 2023.
So if you look at all of the fundamental indicators, I feel quite comfortable with the guidance of both the $2.9 billion NIAT target for the year, but also the return on equity number. Our return on equity for the quarter closed at 9.3%. We've managed to post 180 basis points worth of ROE improvement since the fourth quarter of last year. So Doug, at this point, obviously, we still have a lot of macro uncertainty. We still have to work through potential rate declines, et cetera, that will obviously add some degree of uncertainty for next year. But from an underlying business momentum perspective, I'm quite confident with some of the guidance that we provided on the September Investor Day.
Appreciate it. And then just second, I know insurance is a small business, but the earnings were quite weak. And I was a bit surprised given I think it was relatively low CAT this quarter relative to last year, at least in companies that I'm following. So maybe you can -- is there anything unusual like actuarial assumption reviews or anything unusual [indiscernible] going through the insurance results that caused the weaker bottom line results?
Thanks, Doug. Let me take that. So from an insurance perspective, I do think having run the business, I look at the insurance from a full year perspective. And if you look at it from a full year perspective, gross written premiums continue to be very strong, 10% growth on the General Insurance gross written premiums. As per the Investor Day, our goal is to double the size of our home and auto business by 2029.
And so when you look at it from a full year's perspective, I think strong performance. The ROE came in at 24.4% above what we expected -- sorry, 24.2% above what we had expected on a full year basis. But when you double-click into the Q4, your specific question, one nuance that we did in the -- over the course of 2025, but it hit more in 2020 -- in the Q4 is that we did look at making sure that we are growing profitably across all of our geographies across the insurance business. And we've rebalanced in some of the higher severe weather regions. And so you saw that play through. That's actually going to prove to be a positive around resiliency and stability of our earnings as we play through.
And so I feel very confident in the Investor Day commitments that we made on the insurance business, but we did actually use it as an opportunity in Q4 to rebalance from a geography perspective and the profitability in the high CAT zones.
So you moved out of the high CAT zones or you were in high CAT zones and therefore, that impacted Q4, and therefore, you've moved out of that, and that should benefit you going forward? Is that...
Yes. Just a little less concentration. And so where we had higher concentration in some of the high severe weather zones, we've moderated the concentration there while accelerating growth in 2026 going forward in the geographies with less CAT exposure.
The next question comes from Paul Holden at CIBC.
I want to ask a couple of questions on deposit growth, maybe starting with Sona because you already gave some flavor on NIM sort of tailwinds and headwinds and you mentioned that deposits is not quite growing at the same pace as loans. So maybe you can talk about why that is and what TD is doing to accelerate particularly low-cost deposit growth.
Yes, absolutely. Thanks for that question, Paul. I'd start by saying it's been a tremendously strong quarter, closing a really strong year. So we've had #1 growth actually across our 3 major product lines in the Canadian Personal Bank. So that includes deposits, cards as well as RESL. So we're feeling really good about the growth momentum that we're seeing. In terms of the mix in demand deposits and term deposits, similar to what you would see right across the industry, we are seeing a decided shift. So that is a positive trend with a much faster clip of growth in non-term versus term deposits.
What I would say, Paul, is we start from a position of real strength here in non-term deposits. I think as we shared at our Investor Day, 86% of our new clients onboard with a checking or savings accounts. And that fuels -- that continues to fuel what is an enviable portfolio mix. So we have 69% of our deposits in non-term deposits versus an industry profile that's more in the mid-50s. So overall, we feel really comfortable with what we're seeing in the industry and certainly what we're seeing amongst our own client base.
Okay. So no reason to suggest any kind of change in trend then in the near term?
Correct.
You're happy with where you are.
Yes, we're very pleased with where we are.
Okay. So I also wanted to ask Leo about deposit growth there. It's down a little bit Q-over-Q and year-over-year. I'm not going to make a big deal of it because it's not down a lot, but still down. Like how should we think about that in '26? Should we start to see those personal deposits growing again? Or do they continue to shrink as maybe you continue to rationalize the retail store count? Just help us think through that.
Sure, Doug. Thank you. So if you look at our deposit numbers on a headline basis, they were down slightly. The runoff is really coming from the Schwab sweep deposits running off essentially as planned. We had indicated that under the new agreement, Schwab did have the ability to bring down the overall level of sweep deposits and they're executing that plan as per the agreement.
In addition, we've targeted the government banking collateralized portfolios, those that provide us very little liquidity, largely commoditized in terms of pricing. We targeted about $5 billion of that portfolio for runoff, and that was aligned to the overall portfolio balance sheet restructuring activity. In addition, we have taken from about, as you know, earlier this year, we had taken a very defensive posture in terms of pricing to defend our deposit base. As we move through the year, as we've made progress on the balance sheet restructuring on the lending side or on the asset side of the house, we've also looked at our deposit business and implemented much more pricing discipline around some of our higher-priced deposit categories, both in consumer and corporate to make sure that we are managing healthy deposit margins.
And in the quarter, we saw a 5 basis point expansion in deposit margins as a result of the actions that we're taking. So given where we are in the U.S., given the restructuring activities, we are being more selective around our pricing, and we have the opportunity to do so, and that is translating into some margin expansion for us. So to your point with regards to the outlook, absolutely, I expect us to go back to a growth posture, but particularly around our core deposits, our core checking account interest and noninterest-bearing checking account balances, we believe that's critical for long-term profitability. And so we did provide guidance as part of Investor Day that we would target mid-single-digit deposit growth rates over the MTO period, and I fully expect us to go back to that profile.
Okay. Is it too early to ask for that in '26 or not?
I think we've already provided enough guidance at this point. So maybe next quarter.
Maybe I can just ask Paul Clark to jump in. I do think we have a terrific momentum in what we said at Investor Day on referrals from retail to wealth and the momentum that we see there because that, to me, is also another significant deepening of our client relationships and will play into sort of our volume story as we move forward.
Yes. Thanks, Ray. For the full year, we saw over $31 billion in assets as a result of our relationship with retail and commercial. So this is closed referred business. In the quarter, the number was over $7 billion, Paul, which is just a testament to the momentum that we continue to gain. When you think about that in the context of Sona and Barb's business, but predominantly Sona, the way that you have to think about that is for every dollar that Sona sends us, we're consolidating $3 roughly from our competitors.
So in the quarter, that results in 2 things. Sona graciously sends us business, which is obviously going to impact our numbers, but we're consolidating from our competitors away. And if you remember at Investor Day, we committed to get that number to $40 billion annually, and we're already up 11% year-over-year. So just great momentum from both Sona and Barbara in the context of this.
The next question comes from Sohrab Movahedi at BMO Capital Markets.
Ray, I just wanted to focus on Slide 16. You have some targets for 2026, including 6% to 8% adjusted EPS growth. I wonder if you could just tell us which business segments are likely to exceed that and which may be a little bit below that? In other words, how is that -- how are you arriving at that by business segment?
Listen, why don't I start it? And then I think you've heard from Leo and Sona some of the terrific momentum. Maybe I'll also ask Tim to jump in. But I think what you see, Sohrab, when you look across our Q4 results is actually strength across all of the businesses. And I see momentum in every single one of the businesses. And so I would say, as I said in my comments, we do have positive tailwinds on EPS and ROE as we head into the 2026. And that's on strength of both -- a lot of that is on the strength of our fee income businesses, our markets-driven businesses in TD Securities and in the Wealth Management business.
But our fundamentals, as Leo said, in our core banking businesses in Canada and the United States, the fundamentals are better than we had expected even at Investor Day as we ended Q4 and jumped into the fiscal new year. So why don't I let Tim and Paul talk about their businesses because they're the ones that really from a fee income perspective is also providing tailwinds. And then Barb can maybe comment on the strength of the business bank, and then you'll get a full view of all of the businesses since already Sona and Leo have commented.
Thanks, Ray. And Sohrab, I would just say, obviously, an exceptionally strong Q4, a record revenue and NIAT number. I would say that the shape of the year continued to play out in favor of investment banking in the second half of the year. And so if I look at Q4, specifically for our investment banking business, we had a record revenue quarter, exceeding Q2, which obviously had Schwab in it.
Early days for Q1, although I will say that the momentum is carrying through into the new fiscal year. And finally, something that we talked about at the Investor Day, a tremendous amount of focus on capital discipline and optimization, and that applies both to the market side as well as the loan book and investment banking, which accounts for about 40% of our overall RWA. And so if you look at the ROEs, obviously high in the quarter at 12.4%, up close to 500 basis points. But more importantly, if we look at revenue growth, the RWA growth in Q4 came in at 2.6x and 1.6x for the year as a whole.
So I would say, overall, results for the year exceeded our expectations. We had talked about delivering anywhere from $375 million to $425 million in NIAT on average per quarter, and we're at the high end there and exceeded our revenue targets per quarter that we expected, which were $1.8 billion. So I feel very good about the momentum that we showed in Q4 and thus far carrying over nicely into the new fiscal year.
The only thing I'd add on ours, and I know Kelvin took you through the numbers and people tend to focus on the top line revenue line at 16% year-over-year. And each of our businesses have had tremendous market share growth this year, which bodes well for earnings next year. But what I would tell you, I've been most impressed with this year is just the focus on efficiency. Our efficiency ratio through the year improved about 250 basis points, and that really sets us up nicely as we head into next year. ROE for the full year was just over 62%, and we continue to see strong momentum this quarter and heading into 2026.
Barb, quickly...
Thanks, Sohrab. So for the Canadian Business Bank, we are seeing very strong momentum as well. We laid out the strategies at Investor Day that we are looking at to accelerate our growth. And I'm happy to report that we did add about 200 incremental frontline bankers in 2025. Almost half of those were in small business banking, and we add -- we made those additions a little bit earlier in the year. And we did see in our results in Q4, a pickup in our new client originations and our deposit growth. We're looking to add more small business bankers in 2026. And so we expect good momentum to continue. We also added to our commercial banking that was a little bit later in the year. So I don't think we're really seeing a significant amount of benefit in Q4, but we certainly expect to see that in '26. So we're feeling very positive.
Sohrab, I hope that gives you a sense of the momentum that we're carrying.
Yes, that's very helpful. And I just wanted to put Kelvin on this but and get him to clarify something. In the context of buybacks, I think a couple of times you mentioned subject to market conditions. So under what conditions would you not do the buyback?
Just how fast you can buy given the volatility in the market and how much you can actually -- from a regulatory perspective, you can buy back. So if we would and the market is conducive like earlier this year, we would step in harder on that front.
So you're price sensitive?
Not really, but at the margin, we would be.
There are no more questions in the queue at this time. I would now like to return the call to Mr. Raymond Chun for closing remarks.
Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We certainly appreciate your questions and comments. TD delivered for its stakeholders in Q4 with robust top line growth, positive operating leverage and strong credit performance. We are well positioned for the year ahead. So let me take a moment to wish you and your families all the best for the holiday season, and we certainly look forward to connecting in the new year. Thank you, everyone.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Ergebnis: Nettogewinn $3,9 Mrd, EPS $2,18; ROE stieg um 110 Basispunkte YoY.
- Umsatz: Revenue netto ISE +15% YoY (oder +12% ex. Wetter-Effekt); PTPP nach Anpassungen +25% YoY.
- Kosten: Aufwendungen +10% YoY; dennoch positive Operating Leverage.
- Kapital & Kapitalrückfluss: CET1 14,7%; Dividende +$0,03 auf $1,08; laufendes Buyback ~65 Mio Aktien (~$6 Mrd), weiteres $6–7 Mrd geplant (reg. Genehmigung).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Strategie: Fokus auf „deepen relationships“, „simpler & faster“ und disziplinierte Ausführung; Investor‑Day‑Ziele bleiben Richtschnur.
- KI‑Einsatz: ~75 AI‑Use‑Cases in FY25, erzielter Wert $170 Mio; Erwartung $200 Mio Zusatzwert in FY26.
- Bilanzrestrukturierung: Verkauf ~$32 Mrd Nominal mit $1,6 Mrd Vorsteuerverlust; repositioning brachte NII‑Nutzen ~$500 Mio (FY25), ~$550 Mio erwartet FY26.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Ergebnisziele: FY26‑Ziel EPS‑Wachstum 6–8% und mittelfristiges ROE‑Ziel 13% (Investor Day).
- Kostenpfad: Erwartete Aufwandsteigerung 3–4% in FY26; Restrukturierungsprogramm Gesamtkosten ~ $825 Mio vor Steuern, jährliche Einsparungen ~ $750 Mio Laufrate.
- Kreditrisiko: PCL Erwartung FY26 40–50 bps (Verbesserung gegenüber 45–55 bps Guideline FY25).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- AML/Asset Cap: Umfangreiche Fragen zur Nachhaltigkeit der AML‑Remediation; Management betont Fortschritte, verweigert aber konkrete Zusagen zur Aufhebung der Asset‑Beschränkung.
- Kapitalallokation: Diskussion über Buybacks vs. CET1—neues Programm $6–7 Mrd geplant, Ausführung abhängig von Markt‑ und Regulierungsbedingungen.
- Fortschritte & Risiken: Kreditqualität in RESL/HELOC, Margenentwicklung bei Hypotheken, Depositentrends (Schwab‑Sweep‑Runoff) und Kostendisziplin wurden vertieft hinterfragt.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Solider Quarter‑Report: starkes Umsatzwachstum, positive operative Hebelwirkung, aktiver Kapitalrückfluss (Dividende + Buybacks) und konkrete Ertragshebel (KI, Portfolio‑Repositionierung). Wichtige Unsicherheiten bleiben AML‑Remediation, Handelstarife und makroökonomische Entwicklung; Anleger sollten Timing der Asset‑Cap‑Entlastung und Buyback‑Durchführung beobachten.
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Dominion Bank - Analyst/Investor Day - The Toronto-Dominion Bank
1. Management Discussion
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome. On behalf of our entire senior executive team, thank you for joining us for TD's 2025 Investor Day. It's fantastic to see so many familiar faces. For those of you I haven't met, I'm Brooke Hales and I have the privilege of leading Investor Relations here at TD. Whether you're joining us in person or on the webcast, we're delighted to have you here as we share our renewed strategy.
Before we begin, I'd like to acknowledge that tomorrow is National Day for Truth and Reconciliation in Canada as we honor the indigenous people on whose lands we gather. Now let's turn to today's Agenda.
We'll begin by hearing from our Group President and Chief Executive Officer, Raymond Chun, who will share our strategic priorities and financial targets. As you'll get a glimpse of today, Ray is known as a decisive leader who drives results and challenges the status quo. And I have to tell you, he absolutely loves to win.
After Ray, you'll hear from our CFO, Kelvin Tran and each of our business leaders. We'll have two breaks and two Q&A sessions where we'll take your questions. Finally, after we wrap up the formal agenda, we hope you'll join us for a networking reception.
Now the inner lawyer in me needs to remind you that today's presentation will include forward-looking statements, which involve assumptions and have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially.
I'd also like to remind you that the bank uses non-GAAP financial measures to arrive at adjusted results. The bank believes that adjusted results provide a better understanding of how management views the bank's performance. Our speakers will be referring to adjusted results in their remarks. Additional information about non-GAAP measures and material factors and assumptions is available in the Investor Day materials on the TD Investor Relations website.
And with that, let's kick off the day. There's a renewed energy across the bank, and our colleagues are excited about the future. It's because of our next speaker, our Group President and Chief Executive Officer. Please join me in welcoming Ray to the stage.
Thanks, Brooke. And let me start by saying, Brooke, you're absolutely right. I do love to win everyone. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TD Terrace. Thank you so much for joining us here in person and for all of you that are on our webcast. I've been looking forward to this day for a long time. And I hear there's a little bit of interest amongst all of you also.
When I was named CEO about a year ago, I couldn't have been more energized to lead our bank. The team has accomplished a lot since then. We've taken decisive action to remediate the AML program, we've sold our stake in Schwab, exited certain non-core businesses. We initiated an NCIB and have already bought back approximately $5 billion in TD stock. And we've restructured our U.S. balance sheet to build capacity for growth. I'm proud of what we've already accomplished, I'm excited that we are getting back to winning and I'm even more energized about the opportunities that are in front of us.
We have a massive organic growth opportunity. Today, we'll lay out our strategy to capture it, to deepen client relationships and accelerate growth in Canada, the U.S. and TD Securities. We'll also take you through detailed plans to fundamentally reset our cost base, lower our efficiency ratio and increase ROE.
Our strategy builds on our strengths. Thanks to our clients and the trust they put in us, and thanks to our colleagues who care for them, we have built a formidable bank. Let's take a look at where we stand today.
We have a diversified portfolio with personal and commercial banking leadership in scale in North America, a powerful $2 trillion balance sheet with unique capital advantages. I'll come back to that in a minute. We have Canada's most valuable brands. We run the country's premier retail franchise. It's a deposit-taking powerhouse with the primacy advantage, that's the envy of other banks. We have market leadership in core deposits, credit cards and RESL and the country's second largest business bank in both loans and deposits.
We also have the #1 direct investing platform in the fastest-growing private wealth management business in the country. And in insurance, we've disrupted the market to become the #1 direct insurer.
In the U.S., in just 20 years, we've built a top 10 bank with more than 10 million clients. That's exceptional. And yes, we have room to grow. Leo will tell you more about this later on.
In TD Securities, we now have a full-service platform. Our clients are responding and we're winning new mandates and growing faster.
Now let me describe our tremendous financial advantages. Our core deposit leadership and powerful capital base provide us with margin and earnings advantage. This delivers significantly more annual organic capital generation than our peers. This means we can maintain a strong CET1 ratio, serve our clients, invest in growth and return capital to shareholders. These advantages cannot be easily replicated.
We're also very strong risk managers are through the cycle approach to credit risk management has served both TD and our shareholders well. We're very well reserved, as you can see from the allowance coverage ratio on this slide. And on the right, you can see a well-managed $1 trillion diversified loan portfolio. This allows us to support clients through changing market dynamics.
Now this afternoon, we're going to talk a lot about growth and performance. But let me be clear, AML remediation is our #1 priority. This has my full attention. We're making steady progress in building a world-class program. We've hired specialized talent and leaders with deep expertise. We're investing in leading-edge technology and redesigning processes to build a strong AML program and further strengthen our governance and controls across the enterprise. And we're purposely changing certain parts of our culture.
Look, I'm proud of our culture. It's why I've been here for more than three decades. But there are some aspects that absolutely must change. Accountability at all levels is nonnegotiable. Curiosity, as you know, curiosity sparks discovery and insights accelerates progress, it also drives innovation, encourage leaders and colleagues with the courage to drive change and always do the right thing. As we've all seen, strategy provides direction but its culture that enables teams to win.
Strengthening our winning culture is one of my most important jobs as CEO. As we build for the future, we know the world isn't standing still. We face new risks, economic changes, disruptive technologies and new innovations. Here in Canada, our trading relationship with the United States is center stage. We'll continue to work with governments and clients to unlock the country's potential. I meet regularly with clients and leaders in Canada and the U.S., and I remain confident in our collective future. TD will successfully lead through change and uncertainty, innovate and develop new technologies to power our future and deliver for our clients.
Now as we look ahead, we know we have lots of work to do. TD has historically outperformed for our shareholders. However, as you can see on this slide, in recent years, our performance has slipped in ROE, EPS growth and total shareholder return. That's unacceptable. That's changing. Through the strategic review, we examined every part of our business and asked ourselves tough questions such as how do our competitive advantages create opportunities to win and grow.
How do we reset our cost base, operate efficiently and move with speed? What's the best use of our shareholders' capital? Here are the key takeaways. We have a clear opportunity for accelerated growth in Canada. We've created the balance sheet capacity to grow in the United States, and there's tremendous runway to deepen our clients in TD Securities. To meet changing client demand, we need to reshape distribution, including growing digital sales, enhancing the productivity of our branch network and adding sales capability in key segments. We also see an important opportunity to accelerate fee income growth in wealth, insurance and TD Securities. To fund these initiatives and investments and improve our efficiency ratio, we must reset our cost base and moderate expenses.
It's an absolute priority as you'll hear today. We also need to sharpen our focus on capital allocation to maximize returns. Let's look at what this focus and discipline will deliver for our shareholders.
For fiscal 2026. Fiscal 2026 will be the first year in our journey towards premium total shareholder returns. We expect to achieve ROE of 13%, grow EPS by 6% to 8%, reduced expense growth to 3% to 4% and deliver positive operating leverage. We also expect a 40 to 50 basis point PCL Ratio. By fiscal 2029, we expect to achieve 16% ROE, 7% to 10% EPS growth and mid- to high single-digit PTPP. We'll also drive a comprehensive program to deliver $2 billion to $2.5 billion in run rate expense reduction.
We are targeting a mid-50s efficiency ratio with positive operating leverage. In the long term, we plan to drive towards efficiency ratio leadership by deploying AI and other technology. I'll walk you through detailed plans to achieve these targets shortly.
Now let me turn to capital. In fiscal 2025, we deployed almost $3 billion of capital to reposition the U.S. Bank's balance sheet and execute a bank-wide restructuring program. We also initiated an $8 billion NCIB program, which we expect to complete in Q1 of fiscal 2026. For fiscal 2026, we are targeting a CET1 ratio of approximately 13%. TD's capital position will remain substantially above that even after we complete our current NCIB program.
We've assessed our near-term capital needs, and I'm pleased to announce we plan to initiate a new buyback of $6 billion to $7 billion in fiscal 2026, subject to regulatory approval. This will return virtually all the capital generated from the Schwab sale to you, our shareholders.
TD has a bright future. And we don't believe our current share price reflects the bank's intrinsic value. The additional NCIB also demonstrates our ongoing commitment to return capital to our shareholders. This brings me to the overall approach to capital allocation, which will be very different at TD going forward.
First, we'll deploy capital organically with more discipline. So what does that mean? It means we're doing the hard work to optimize capital where necessary within our businesses as we've demonstrated, this includes exiting businesses that are non-core or don't provide an appropriate return. It also means deploying capital in ways that are accretive to ROE, while accelerating growth to drive long-term shareholder value.
Second, we will consistently return capital to shareholders. Over the past decade, we've returned capital just above our 40% to 50% dividend payout ratio with some acceleration in recent years. As you can see on the right, we're targeting a total payout ratio of 94% this year and over 100% in fiscal 2026 based on analyst earnings estimates.
We also expect enhanced capital accretion starting in 2027 as we accelerate growth and increase operating leverage with no change in our risk appetite. This will allow us to generate more than 75 basis points or approximately $5 billion of excess CET1 annually on today's RWAs, even after paying dividends. We're generating the capital to execute on organic growth strategy, consider inorganic opportunities, maintain an additional capital buffer and still return the majority of excess capital to shareholders. This is an enviable position for any bank in a unique advantage for TD.
Our commitment to returning capital is an important part of our total shareholder return story, and it's an important part of how we'll deliver on our 16% 2029 ROE target.
Let's take a look at our strategy to deliver this growth. So we have three strategic pillars. I'll start with deeper relationships. So throughout my career, I've always believed when our clients win, we win. This isn't a slogan. It's at the heart of our bank, and it's how I've led in every single role in my career. When we serve clients with excellence and deliver outstanding experiences, we build trust and relationships get stronger.
It's how we'll deepen share of wallet, digital engagement and fee income. Earlier, I told you we have a massive organic growth opportunity. Here's why. In Canada, we've earned the trust of an enormous client base and lead in retail banking in primacy. This is a tremendous strength. Sona describes this as the holy grail of banking, and we have it. Given this powerful advantage, our client relationships should be much deeper. As you'll hear from our leaders throughout the afternoon, we have a singular enterprise-wide focus on deepening with clear plans, targets and scorecards across every business.
We're also making strategic investments in frontline talent and digital capabilities to deliver. As we drive these programs forward, we'll increase card penetration, capture the RESL opportunity with our clients expand our wealth client base and grow both AUA and AUM.
Let me provide some more detail on the plans we're executing. First, we're reimagining our distribution and sales model. As you can see on the left, we're investing significantly in frontline distribution and deploying specialized talent closer to our clients. Look at the right side of this slide, branch referrals to wealth advisers are already up 18% and revenue per frontline colleague is up across personal and business banking. Sona, Barb, Leo and Paul have exciting plans to drive these numbers even further.
Now branches have always been a TD strength, and they will continue to be a strong competitive advantage, but we need to reshape the role of a branch in a digital era. We're transforming branches from transaction hubs to high-value advice centers. Do you know how many more simple day-to-day transactions like depositing a check, paying a bill are done in a TD branch every year versus our peers? 30 million transactions. That's a lot of transactions and our clients can do all of them today on their mobile device without one more dollar of investment.
We already have 13 million users across North America and every day, we're helping more clients do more of their banking digitally. This will improve their client experience and created tremendous capacity and efficiency in our branch network.
Without question, digital is critical to our future, and we have a leading position. We have 8 million mobile users in Canada, more than any other bank and 5 million in the U.S. As we migrate to digital, we will also increasingly sell through digital. Clients are changing, banking is changing, and we will lead the way. As we drive these changes and accelerate growth, we're also targeting a significant increase in fee income. We expect fee income growth to drive 170 basis points of ROE contribution over the medium term, primarily in TD Securities, wealth and insurance.
In TD Securities, we've always had strong client relationships. What we didn't have was a full-service North American platform. We do now. With the successful integration of TD Cowen, we've added U.S. equity sales trading execution, advisory capabilities and one of the top investment research platforms in the industry. We have tremendous upside, as Tim will explain.
In wealth, we're growing advice. In Canada, we're tapping into our massive direct investing base and capturing more referrals from Canadian personal and commercial banking, which Paul will take you through. In the U.S., we see a significant opportunity. We're investing in new capabilities and frontline advisers to build out this business.
In insurance, we have the winning model, direct-to-consumer. As I mentioned, we've disrupted the market to become the #1 direct insurer. James has a clear plan to expand on our success and significantly grow gross written premiums through the medium term.
As we drive these outcomes across our business, we will deliver peer-leading performance and build undisputed leadership and client experience. To do this, we need to be simpler and faster. We are a large, regulated complex organization. But that doesn't give us permission to be bureaucratic, slow or inefficient. I've always believed that speed is a competitive advantage. Across TD, we're deploying the capabilities needed to drive speed, such as AI-powered virtual assistance, AI-enabled adjudication, predictive tools and new applications. These new capabilities are already driving strong outcomes.
We're approving mortgages in hours instead of days. We're pre-approving credit cards with data-driven insights for millions of clients. We're producing reports in minutes versus hours or days, and we're responding to clients in just a few seconds, significantly shortening call and wait times. Tremendous progress with more on the way.
We're also simplifying our operating model. We're stripping out complexity, reducing management layers and speeding up decision-making. In the third column, you'll see we've now given our line of business leaders increased end-to-end ownership, putting decision rights closer to the client.
For instance, global transaction banking used to sit under three leaders. We pulled it now together under Tim and TD Securities, and we're building a world-class platform. One owner, one budget, one strategy, one decision-maker. To drive these and other growth initiatives, we're focusing our investments for maximum impact.
TD is a growth bank and we'll continue to invest in our future. We're investing in new platforms, technologies, data and talent. And the benefits of these investments are starting to flow through the organization. And over the medium term, we'll spend less money to run the bank and more to grow the bank, as you can see on the left.
You can see some of the outcomes targeted by these investments on this slide, 90% of our data simplified in the cloud, 90% of our products digitally enabled. AI is an important part of this strategy. We're targeting $1 billion in annual value from AI, half through revenue uplift and half through cost savings, with concrete plans already delivering clear outcomes.
Now we've been building our AI leadership and competitive advantage for years. We acquired Layer 6 in 2018, which gave us a head start. Its Co-founder, Max Volkovs, is our Chief AI scientist. Max is one of the most renowned AI experts in the world. He's attracted the brightest minds in the field to our hub in Toronto, and we just opened a second hub in New York City to extend our leadership.
2,500 scientists, engineers, data analysts and experts are building proprietary platforms and applications right here at TD. This is huge. AI is fast becoming fundamental to business and to client experience. Having in-house talent of this scale is a powerful advantage for us. Max and other top AI and digital leaders are with us today. They're showcasing concrete examples of our leadership just outside this room. Ultimately, the success of our strategy requires our third strategic pillar, disciplined execution.
Disciplined execution is part of my DNA and is now part of our DNA at TD. Let's start with Disciplined Governance and Controls, protecting the bank our clients, our shareholders and the financial system is a responsibility that we take seriously. We have a strong financial risk foundation and will continue to be disciplined. We're making ongoing investments in talent, technology, data and AI to enhance compliance and address dynamic risk categories like cyber and fraud.
We will never lose focus on this and are actively benchmarking capabilities, testing our resilience and elevating performance.
This brings me to our cost base. As you know, our efficiency ratio is 58%. To achieve our mid-50s target, we're fundamentally restructuring our cost base and we're moderating expense growth to drive $2 billion to $2.5 billion in annual savings. We're managing this program in a coordinated cross enterprise way. Everyone is a part of it, and every leader is accountable to deliver their savings targets. We have not addressed our cost base in this focused, comprehensive and disciplined way before. We are permanently resetting our cost base.
This effort is far reaching and absolutely necessary. Our 2025 restructuring program is on target, and we expect $500 million in savings to hit in fiscal 2026, largely from the businesses we've exited or restructured.
As you can see on the slide, we plan to take an additional $400 million in fiscal 2026. The majority of these savings will come from distribution transformation, AI and automation and our global delivery workforce programs, which I'll cover in a minute. Combined, this will drive almost $1 billion in savings in 2026. We will realize an additional $1 billion in savings through 2027 and 2028 as we advance towards our mid-50s target.
Let's dig a little deeper here. To achieve our cost reduction goals, we're driving change across six core initiatives. And earlier, I discussed the massive opportunity in distribution transformation. We're targeting up to $450 million in annual savings as we migrate transactions to digital, grow digital sales, enhance frontline productivity, optimize branch size, hours, location and capacity. A portion of this will hit in 2026, as I mentioned.
Next, we're reshaping our top 20 processes, which represent approximately 60% of our processing costs. So how are we going to do that? We're harnessing AI and automation to simplify our processes and deliver $0.5 billion in savings. And we already know how.
For example, in TD Insurance, AI claims management alone will take out $40 million and make the process simpler and faster for clients. We also expect to save $400 million a year through the tech and data modernization initiatives I discussed earlier.
Procurement is another significant opportunity. TD has an addressable spend of over $6 billion with vendors. We have clear sight lines to the first $200 million to $300 million in annual savings. We're also consolidating vendors within our global delivery workforce strategy to deliver an additional $200 million to $300 million in savings, which will begin to flow through in 2026. And expense moderation will deliver an additional $400 million in savings. Now combined, all of these savings will significantly enhance our bottom line, help us achieve our mid-50s efficiency ratio target.
To enable this program and ensure its success, we recently hired Taylan Turan as Chief Operating Officer. Working with leaders across TD, he will accelerate our change agenda, reshape operations and drive bank-wide efficiency. This program will allow us to achieve our efficiency target and invest in our growth. We're applying rigor and discipline as we make investments to grow the business and achieve our goals. This investment discipline and the consistent execution of our plans will drive our growth and enhance ROE.
Now as you can see on this slide, Canadian Personal Banking and Wealth Management are very strong ROE businesses. We'll maintain those industry-leading levels as we build stronger returns in TD Securities and U.S. retail. I've covered a lot of ground today. So let me sum it up. We have a tremendous opportunity to reclaim client experience leadership, accelerate growth through deeper relationships and deliver peer-leading performance and shareholder returns. As we drive change, harness AI and extend digital leadership, we're building a more disciplined, simpler and faster bank.
To fund our growth and achieve our efficiency ratio target, we've launched a comprehensive enterprise-wide program to restructure our cost base. Make no mistake, we will get this done. And with a strong capital base and industry-leading organic capital generation, we plan to buyback an additional $6 billion to $7 billion in TD stock in 2026 and consistently return capital to shareholders going forward. These initiatives, combined with disciplined capital allocation, will lift ROE to 16% by fiscal 2029. We're getting back to winning for our clients and for you, our shareholders. Thank you.
Now over to you, Kelvin, to dig a little bit deeper into the financials.
Well, thank you, Ray, and thanks, everyone, for joining us. I'm Kelvin Tran, the bank's Chief Financial Officer, I'm sure many of you know me by now, I've been CFO since 2021, and I have been with the bank for over 20 years in various leadership roles. This Investor Day marks an important milestone in TD's journey. I will start by recognizing where TD stands today and then talk about where the bank is heading in the future.
We have a fantastic franchise with diversification and scale across our footprint. TD is a top 6 North American bank by total deposits and total gross loans. Over the past five years, we have grown deposits and loans by about 7% per year, and the team has delivered growth across all [ our ] business segments and footprint.
The bank's growth has been supported by our leadership in core deposits. That is our bread and butter, so to speak. These are sticky deposits, and they are highly profitable. In Canada, TD has top market share in non-term deposits. And in the U.S., ex. Sweep deposits, almost 90% of our deposits are non-term. And this strength drives lower deposit costs for TD, which is a significant competitive advantage for the bank.
Our discipline through the cycle approach to underwriting is also a competitive advantage. And as you can see in the middle of the slide here, TD has consistently delivered net charge-offs below the Canadian peer average. And that's across diverse products from mortgages to credit cards and from personal loans to commercial loans. Together, stable non-term deposits and lower NCOs coupled with our diversified business mix have supported steady earnings for TD through the cycle.
And over the past five years, the bank's adjusted EPS volatility was about 250 basis points below the Canadian peer average as shown on the right of the slide.
Now I want to dive deeper into the three financial objectives that Ray described in his remarks. Accelerating revenue growth, managing expense with discipline to create the capacity to invest for the future and allocating capital with a focus on shareholder return. As you can see in the lower left corner, we have grown revenue at about 5% per year over the past 5 years. In U.S. retail, we have weathered overdraft and other regulatory fee reductions. In our insurance business, the industry saw record weather-related events in fiscal 2024 and in Wholesale Banking, we have delivered faster revenue growth. Today, our business leaders will walk you through detailed strategies to accelerate revenue growth.
And the keyword here is acceleration. As you heard from Ray, the strategy center on enhancing digital engagement and helping our clients succeed. And we know that if they succeed, we succeed. And then we will earn the right to have a deeper share of wallet and grow our fee income businesses. And most importantly, these are organic growth opportunities that already exist within TD's four walls.
I want to pause for a moment on the U.S. Retail segment. This is a very, very important slide. I want to emphasize that this business has the capacity to grow while still complying with the asset cap. As you heard on our Q3 earnings call, we have already reduced assets by over 10%, creating room to continue to support our clients' needs.
And it's important to note there is additional dry powder on our balance sheet, with over 77% of loan-to-deposit ratio, and that's ex. Sweep deposits in the U.S., we have a sizable investment portfolio where almost USD 40 billion of that represents non-HQLA securities, which could then be run off to create additional room for core loan growth.
Now what does this mean? All in, our U.S. retail business could grow loans faster than their historical growth rate and still has the capacity against the asset cap over the medium term.
I'm sure you're thinking Kelvin, revenue growth is great, but what about expenses? I'd like to spend some time on our efficiency ratio and productivity initiatives, which are important topics that we're talking a lot about today. We are focused relentlessly on controlling cost growth by driving productivity to bend the expense growth curve. The $2 billion to $2 billion in savings that Ray highlighted earlier, will help drive efficiency ratio improvement, and that's across the bank.
So let's take a look at history to put TD's approach to expense management in context. The bank had a peer-leading efficiency ratio from 2015 to 2022. And our approach was to invest to drive top line growth. and the realization of this revenue growth enabled TD to maintain a strong efficiency ratio for many, many years.
If you look at the last couple of years on this slide, our efficiency ratio deteriorated. Due in part to elevated governance and control expenses, but also reflecting our decision to continue to invest in the business. Now let's call it like we see it. Not only we are no longer peer-leading in the efficiency ratio, we have fallen behind the Canadian peer average. We know we need to do better, and we will.
In 2025, year-to-date, our expenses are up 12% year-over-year. And if you remove the impact of FX, variable compensation and the strategic card portfolio PCL, that number is closer to 9%, driven mainly by governance and control costs and business investments. We believe that 2025 represents a high watermark for governance and control expense growth for the bank. We have made the required investments and this cost is now mostly in our run rate. Next year, we expect expense growth of 3% to 4% year-over-year, with constant levels of FX, variable compensation and our strategic card portfolio PCL. And that is predominantly driven by business investments, which includes those investments we're making in the strategic initiatives that you hear about throughout the day from our business leaders. And this number is net of productivity savings.
While the expense guidance is helpful, let me reiterate that our goal is to manage to positive operating leverage. We have multiple levers that we can flex expenses up or down depending on the macro environment. And as Ray has said, we are targeting $2 billion to $2.5 billion in cost takeout. We're confident we can achieve this goal because we have clear line of sight across various levers. And this includes distribution transformation as we migrate more transactions to digital channels global delivery workforce as we consolidate with vendors to drive synergies from scale, automation and AI and technology in data modernization.
So how do we get back to a mid-50s efficiency ratio? You can see that on this slide. If you take 2024 results and remove $2 billion in structural costs, our efficiency ratio would have been closer to 54%. And as governance and control cost growth moderates, and we maintain our relentless focus on prioritization of investments and driving productivity, we will drive positive operating leverage. You will also hear throughout the afternoon that we have many levers to drive productivity and a commitment from each of our business leaders to deliver on those opportunities. And this combination gives me confidence that we will deliver on our targets. And as a result, we expect efficiency improvements across our businesses.
In Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking, you will hear from Sona and Barb about opportunities to automate processes and leverage AI to drive colleague productivity. In U.S. retail, we will benefit from the normalization of remediation investments over the medium term. But Leo will also speak about data rationalization, technology modernization and core process transformation to take out significant costs.
In Wholesale Banking, you will hear more from Tim shortly about strategies to grow revenues and deepen the TD Cowen integration, both of which will improve efficiency ratio over time. And we expect productivity improvements by enabling our bankers with a broader product suite to sell and win more business. It would be very fun to watch.
I also want to pause on TD Insurance. As it is a great example of how we can restructure our cost base and further leaning into digital capabilities. And as you would hear from James shortly, our insurance business operates a digital direct model with a largely fixed cost base. Thanks to the significant investments we've made over many, many years in technology. And as we further scale that business and grow revenue, the efficiency ratio will improve over time. And on top of that, we are leveraging AI to improve the claims experience by lowering claims costs, while at the same time, enhancing customer satisfaction.
At the total bank level, we expect to improve our efficiency ratio by over 300 basis points. Now the combination of accelerated revenue growth, enhanced efficiency and disciplined RWA growth will lift ROE to 15% by 2028 and to 16% over the medium term.
As you know, our Canadian businesses deliver strong organic capital generation, and that will continue. However, we must, and I repeat, we must improve our ROE in U.S. retail and in Wholesale Banking. In U.S. retail, we have already taken actions to improve ROE through the balance sheet restructuring activities that you've seen this year, but there's more work to do. And as you would hear from Leo, the team will further enhance U.S. ROE by driving underlying business performance through deepening client relationships and further optimizing cost and capital.
And in Wholesale Banking, with the acquisition of TD Cowen, we now have a more diversified revenue stream. And you have seen that play out real time in our strong and consistent results year-to-date.
Earlier in the year, our Global Markets businesses benefited from market volatility. And in Q3, as market volatility normalize, we saw an acceleration in our capital markets and advisory businesses. TD Securities has already extended balance sheet to a strong [ roster ] of client. So this business does not need to consume outsized RWA growth to drive outsized revenue growth. And as you would hear from Tim, with the new capabilities from the TD Cowen acquisition, we will do more business with existing clients and drive higher client relationship returns. And to wrap this up, our strong organic capital generation will enable the bank to buyback shares to further elevate ROE.
Now I want to emphasize this point. TD generates organic capital at a very, very impressive clip. And as a group that follows TD closely, I'm sure you know that already.
As you can see on this slide, on average, from 2015 to 2022, TD had delivered 89 basis points of adjusted organic capital accretion annually. And in '23 and '24, our annual capital accretion was lower, reflecting the AML resolution and the related operational risk capital impact, the transition to Basel III and the TD Cowen acquisition, among other impacts.
And over the medium term, on average, we expect to deliver more than 75 basis points of organic capital accretion this year, which is highly achievable given our history. And this will fuel investments in our businesses with a focus on our highest return opportunities to deliver long-term shareholder value. It will also enable the bank to consistently return capital to shareholders through share buybacks. In short, TD's superior capital accretion provides us with tremendous flexibility to execute our strategy, invest in our business and deliver returns for our shareholders.
For fiscal '26, we expect to deliver a positive operating leverage. And this despite the headwind from the significant share buybacks, which, although they are accretive to EPS, they impact revenue growth by reducing earnings on excess capital. In addition, in fiscal '26, we expect to deliver adjusted EPS growth at the low end of our medium-term target range depending on the timing of the share buyback, expense growth of 3% to 4% and an adjusted ROE of approximately 13% as we execute against our vision and strategy.
We will build deeper relationships, make TD simpler and faster and execute with discipline. And over the medium term, we're confident that we can deliver mid- to high single-digit PTPP growth as we manage revenues and expenses together. And with share buybacks, we expect adjusted EPS growth to be higher at 7% to 10% over the medium term, and we expect to deliver 16% of adjusted ROE.
As of Q3, TD had a 14.8% CET1 ratio. We're committed to driving higher ROE. And therefore, we'll look at both the numerator and the denominator very carefully. We will not sit on excess capital, holding it just in case. And as you heard from Ray, subject to regulatory approval, we expect to initiate another upon completion of our current share buyback program. We will deploy our capital to drive significant value for you, our shareholders. And with that, I'm going to hand it over back to Brooke. Thank you.
Thank you, Kelvin. It's now time for a short break. Refreshments are available just outside the back doors to your left. See you back in 10 minutes.
[Break]
Welcome back, everyone. We're now going to hear from three of our business leaders, Sona Mehta, Group Head, Canadian Personal Banking; Barbara Hooper, Group Head, Canadian Business Banking; and Leo Salom, Group Head, U.S. Retail. After the presentations, we'll host a Q&A session, where we'll take questions both from the room and from our virtual audience.
[Presentation]
Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Sona Mehta, and I am thrilled to be here with you today.
The Canadian Personal Bank has unmatched scale, incredible acquisition power and a best-in-class primary core deposit-rich franchise that truly sets us apart. With this leading position, my team and I are bringing curiosity, pace and uncompromising disciplined execution to get after our organic growth upside. I hope you can feel the energy in the air. We are fired up. And as Ray said, we are excited to get back to winning.
So this afternoon, my goal is to share three things: how we'll capture the deepening opportunity, accelerate PTPP growth and achieve a lower efficiency ratio. All of this is through a simpler, a faster TD. Our ambition is bold. Our strategy is sharp, and we have momentum. So we're going to dive right in.
It starts with we are so honored to serve 14 million Canadians, 1 in 3 Canadians bank with us. Their trust has enabled us to build Canada's #1 leading core banking franchise. And our #1 branch presence is matched only by our #1 digital reach. So taken together, these #1 positions are powerful. This is what drives our consistent track record in new acquisition and fuels our top two position in real estate secured lending and in cards.
So with over $300 million in deposits and over $400 million in loans, last year, we delivered $13.8 billion in revenue. This drove 45% ROE in the Canadian Personal Bank. And on a comparative basis, the segments CAD, P&C segment, 33% ROE is more than 1,000 basis points above peers. Between our #1 positions, consistent earnings and leading ROE, there is a lot to like here.
Now our distribution advantage has been a key franchise enabler. We have kept ahead of evolving client expectations. Our leading distribution network drives results and it is hard to replicate. Today, we have 8.4 million clients using mobile that is the most of any bank in this country. We have been #1 in active mobile clients for 11 straight years. And let me just say, these clients are active. They are using mobile an average of 22x per month. So let's just pause. That translates to 2 billion times a year, where we can build connection and relationship over mobile.
This level of engagement has enabled us to double digital sales over the past five years.
Now in parallel, our branches across the country continue to serve important client needs, including complex advice. Now while we do not have the most branches in Canada, we do believe we have the very best positioned network. As you can see here on the top right, our branches are 91% urban, that means we over-index in high-growth markets. This translates into a larger book of business for our branches, serving 25% more clients and $60 million more in core deposits than the peer average. These are commanding scale and efficiency advantages. We've long been innovators in distribution from the early days of [ 8 to 8 ], 6 days straight to our then pioneering Johnny Cash machines. And each year, we elevate the experience across all channels. Our nonstop practical innovation has built up a strong distribution advantage. And that is key to consistently attracting new clients.
As you can see in the middle chart, we are outpacing the Canadian population growth and by our widest margin yet. We are an acquisition powerhouse. At our last Investor Day, we set a big target to grow new to Canada acquisition by 50%. So how did we do? We crushed it. In 2024, we delivered 55% growth and achieved this way ahead of plan. And we did it by creating unique segmented customer packages. We mobilized thousands of TD bankers across the country who together speak over 80 languages.
And language matters. Like at our Jackson Square branch in Hamilton, Ontario, a family came to us after learning that one of our bankers, [ Haytham ] spoke Arabic. Within minutes, by speaking in their mother tongue, our clients were finally at ease, confidently working through their banking.
It's through superstar colleagues like [ Haytham ] that we deliver comfort and build lifelong relationships always. Our colleagues' heart, their focus, their execution this drives our ability to win across all segments. Years of this acquisition excellence has built up what is today, Canada's leading core banking franchise.
Checking and savings relationships, they are like the heartbeat of a retail bank. 86% or nearly 9 out of every 10 clients onboard to the Canadian personal bank with a checking or savings account these high-quality day-to-day relationships feed our preferential deposit mix. 68% of our $300 billion deposit book is in core non-term deposits.
Now finally, the [ Holy Grail ] primary banking. I know you hear lots of talk about this, and that is because primary relationships matter. When you are a client's main bank, that delivers retention, drives higher deposit leads to deeper relationships and sold the whole industry cares about primacy. We all want to lead in primacy.
So now I'll ask you to look at the third pain. As you can see, TD ranks #1 in primacy. More Canadians think of TD as their main bank. In fact, we leave the peer average by 700 basis points. This is a key differentiator. Primacy is one of our biggest competitive advantages. These relationships, their trust, this is our springboard to accelerate growth. And so the big question we asked ourselves in our strategic review is how do we take this terrific franchise to the next level.
You know what I see is this is the strongest foundation that a retail bank can have, but coupled with the headroom to grow through deeper client relationships. I'll just say that again. We have headroom to grow and the key is deepening relationships.
Now to land deepening, we have to make it simpler and faster to do business with us. Simple and fast will enable the very best client experience, more sales and greater retention.
Our second big unlock is to structurally transform our business. And we are targeting $200 million to $300 million in cost efficiency as we step up digital leadership, and we deploy AI right across our business. So by relentlessly focusing on deepening, as well as structural transformation, we are not just shaping the future. We are owning the future.
So that leads me to our strategic financial ambitions. We are setting out to drive to high single-digit PTPP over the medium term. And in tandem, deliver a 300 basis point improvement in efficiency ratio to 40%, while continuing to achieve peer-leading ROE of 40%.
So now let's talk about how we'll get there. You heard Ray set out the strategic pillars that we are focused on right across TD, deepening relationships, becoming simpler, faster, and disciplined execution. We start with our in-built superpowers. More clients, 1,500 basis points more have a day-to-day account with us. And in case you missed it, we lead in primacy. This is a great foundation for deep relationships.
As you can see on the middle graph, this has translated into above-average relationship depth, as you would expect. However, what you also see is that we are not best-in-class in deepening, not yet. We have 300 basis points of organic growth upside available via deepening and there is absolutely no reason that, that should be the ceiling.
We know our clients want to do more business with us. We see it every day in our top of funnel data. And so frankly, it's time to get at it. We have set specific targets for each of our biggest deepening opportunities. Over the medium term, we aim to increase penetration rates in personal credit cards by 700 basis points and in business credit cards by 1,500 basis points. We are setting out to capture $40 billion of RESL volume from our existing clients who hold a mortgage outside of TD. And we will be partnering with Paul's wealth team to increase referrals from the Canadian Personal Bank to wealth to $40 billion a year.
We are going to capture that headroom. And as Ray said, it will be a win for our clients and a win for TD.
Now starting with cards. We have a platform that is ready to take off. Our award-winning proprietary and co-branded credit cards along with strong partnerships like Uber and Starbucks position us at the forefront of industry loyalty and value. Across our lineup, we have 8 million active accounts, including over 1 million Aeroplan cardholders and we are not done yet. We just completed a long-term extension of our exclusive co-brand credit card with Amazon in Canada. And TD rewards cardholders are loving the ability to use their points on Amazon, redeeming 100 billion points to date. All in all, this is a winning value proposition.
So we are out to capture 700 basis points of deepening headroom on personal cards and doubled that with our small business banking clients. We have thoughtfully redesigned how we operate, policy by policy, process by process, digital funnel by digital funnel.
For example, previously, far too many TD clients had to do a full extensive application for a new credit card. Even if they were existing clients that we knew well. So fast forward, now we fully use our data to preapprove 37% more clients who don't yet have a credit card with us. That is more than 3 million clients who are now preapproved. Let's be clear, to be able to start with the yes, is game changing. And we are already on the move. We are up 300 basis points in deepening with 56% of checking clients now holding a TD credit card. So just to be clear, that was our warm up. And now we hit the ground running.
The deepening opportunity also extends to real estate secured lending. This business is undergoing such an exciting transformation, right, from home buying, all the way to renewal. As you can see on the far right of the slide, you will see that our overarching goal is to deliver disciplined share growth with strong returns.
As we do this, we will set out to bring back $40 billion of mortgages that our clients hold with other banks. So how? Through specialization, through speed and with laser-focused price discipline.
I'll start with specialization. We reintegrated our proprietary channels this year. Our mobile mortgage specialists now work hand-in-hand with in-branch bankers to assist clients on the most complex deals. Their empathy, their expertise and dedication is supporting more clients on their home buying journeys. And the results are off the charts. Our funded volumes from branch referrals are up 3x, and productivity is up more than 40%.
Speed is another critical element to how we will further deepen. As you can expect, a slow home buying process, it can create anxiety for clients. And so we are driving to speed to decision throughout the client's journey from faster pricing to structurally simplifying how we process a mortgage application. We have already increased 1-day approvals in our Mobile Mortgage Specialist Channel by almost 20%. And our focus on speed and specialized advice will drive enhanced returns. As RESL economics rebound, we have been laser-focused on improving returns and driving positive on-off spreads since fiscal '24.
And so through our end-to-end transformation, we are well poised to deliver growth with strong returns. Our digital ambition is equally important. As we have highlighted on the right, our ambition is to widen our leadership in mobile banking and to achieve 50% digital sales in the medium term. We will do this by transforming our market-leading app into an end-to-end app across shopping, buying, onboarding and engagement to drive deeper relationships. We will exceed client expectations through more intuitive, more human, more tailored experiences. You will see us stay at the forefront of digital excellence.
Now the Canadian Personal Bank has an important role to play across TD. We can deliver the whole bank to more clients. And here too, primacy has an advantage primary clients have an almost 2x better wealth penetration rate than non-primary clients. As you will hear from my colleagues, we work closely with our partners across Wealth Management, the Business Bank, and TD insurance. We are deepening across all three.
For today, I'll spotlight our work with wealth. Closed Wealth referrals are already up 23%. Over the past five years, the personal bank has referred $140 billion to wealth, and we aim to grow our referrals by another 43% to $40 billion a year over the medium term. That is the path to enduring relationships right across TD.
So now let's move to simpler and faster. This is so central to how we will achieve our medium-term targets. As I mentioned, we have high interest from clients at the top of our funnels. But over time, we have inadvertently introduced friction. I think we can all agree that no one likes waiting in line for a purchase. And every time you make a client jump through a digital hoop, they drop off. And so what we're doing is examining our key purchase moments and asking ourselves what is the simplest, fastest client experience that we can deliver. I'll share three examples: Faster Leads, Faster Onboarding and Faster Pricing.
So first, Faster Leads. In the real estate secured lending business, we launched TD Mortgage Direct. And so now when a client shows home buying interest online, a specialist is instantly alerted and calls them within minutes. This fast direct model has driven more than $4.6 billion in funded volume since inception, and is performing 4x above our traditional conversion rate.
The next example is Faster Credit Card Onboarding. We recently launched a simplified workflow. It combines checking and credit card applications into one flow and cuts the time in half. We expect a 1,000 basis point lift in new client card penetration all within our existing risk appetite and strong credit quality.
Finally, we are focused on faster RESL pricing. As we execute on this focus for speed for our clients, we are seeing that our deal funding rate is up 7% in our mobile mortgage channel. Again, simply put, when the client wins, we win.
Now making it easier to do business with us starts with how we get things done every single day here at TD. It wasn't that long ago that many of the Canadian Personal Bank's distribution channels set in different parts of the organization. Fast forward to this year, we have brought digital, phone and ATM into the Canadian Personal Bank. Now all distribution and product teams sit at the same table with end-to-end accountability for our clients' experience. And as I shared just a bit before, our branch and our mobile mortgage teams work closely together, and this integrated team is winning in the market.
One of the most transformative levers that we have to structurally get to simpler and faster is AI. We wholeheartedly believe that AI can deliver over $200 million in revenue upside and unlock another $100 million in annualized cost savings. For years, we've deployed Predictive AI everywhere from propensity modeling to adjudication. And now we are actively innovating with generative AI to empower colleagues and reduce manual work. GenAI is an action in our contact centers and soon to be in our branches.
Questions that used to have colleagues jumping through screens can now be answered in seconds. And we expect to deploy our first client-facing version of this capability in the year ahead.
And we are on the precipice of Agentic AI opening up compelling opportunities. For example, most of the RESL application reviewed to date has been quite manual. We are now working on reducing pre-adjudication processing from hours to minutes. That's just one step of many where AI can help us get decisions to clients faster. We see so much potential for AI to improve processes by 40% and enabling us to support client needs and business growth.
Now let's turn to our third pillar, Disciplined Execution. For the Canadian Personal Bank, this is all about driving growth with disciplined credit quality, cost management and driving financial performance. Our Disciplined Execution delivers growth while maintaining strong credit quality.
As you can see here, over the past five years, we have grown credit card accounts by 30%. We have not compromised on credit quality. We have been very disciplined. You'll see on the right that we continue to have peer-leading 90-day plus delinquency rates and this contributes to our strong return profile.
Now as clients' needs and expectations go up, we are reimagining our distribution model. What we see is that clients often seek us out in person in branches during new moments like when they first joined TD or in complex moments as they invest for their future or buy a home for the first time. And here delivering deep specialization matters. So leaning in on the success of this past year, we will redeploy another 500 branch colleagues into home borrowing or investing specialist roles and add to our mobile mortgage specialists. We see $200 million of top line revenue growth.
And for simpler sales and servicing, our future is in boldly extending what it means to be the mobile leader. Clients are definitively adopting digital convenience.
93% of financial transactions are already taking place in self-serve channels. But as you heard Ray say there are still millions and millions of transactions currently in the branch that will in time shift to mobile. And we see an equally important role for mobile to play in simple sales. We see 50% of digital simple sales as well in the art of the possible. This digital momentum can create a $150 million cost reduction and reinvestment opportunity.
We have long been innovators in distribution, and we will continue to be on the front foot as we drive leading distribution transformation.
I find the innovation potential opening up before us so incredibly exciting. We are fully tapping into this reimagining distribution, embedding mobile throughout and reimagining top processes with AI. As we have elevated the colleague and client experience, we can also structurally transform our cost base by $200 million to $300 million. And improve our efficiency ratio by 300 basis points to 40%. With technology, with our disciplined execution, we have high confidence in capturing this potential.
So in closing, the Canadian Personal Bank is the premier retail franchise. We have unmatched scale and leading primacy, a track record of growth, and the runway to reach new heights. I'd like to thank our colleagues. We have the best bankers from coast to coast for all that you have done to build this formidable bank and for your deep conviction in the path ahead.
Our ambitions are bold, our strategy is sharp. We have momentum. We will leverage our leading primacy to drive deeper relationships we will boldly extend our leadership in mobile, and we will unleash the full power of AI. As we do this, we will deliver PTPP growth, enhance our efficiency ratio and to continue our industry-leading ROEs. The future of the Canadian Personal Bank is bright. Thank you.
[Presentation]
Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Barbara Hooper, and I lead the Canadian Business Bank. Over the past 20 years, the Business Bank has grown from #5 in the market to #2. How did we do that? We've built a model and a culture that our clients and colleagues value. It's a successful model and it's prime to grow. So I'm thrilled to talk to you today about the strength of our current business and the tremendous opportunity we have to supercharge our growth through accelerated investments in people, processes, technology and AI. And as you're about to see, this growth is on top of our already strong performance.
We are a leading Canadian franchise with top two market share across most products in commercial banking, small business banking and auto finance. Our three lines of business represent 1 million business clients and 1 million retail auto clients with over $120 billion in business loans and $30 billion in retail auto loans. Our $160 billion in deposits provides a stable source of funding. And as Ray mentioned, puts us in a strong position.
The business bank is an important part of TD, contributing 15% of adjusted earnings and 21% of pre-provision pretax earnings in 2024 with an ROE in excess of 20%, but more than that. The Business Bank plays a key role in TD's overall ecosystem through our trusted client relationships and collaborative partnerships across the organization, we can connect our commercial and small business clients to partners in wealth, TD Securities and the personal bank. These partnerships help us unlock greater value for our clients and gain share of wallet.
We have a history of growing our business, steadily gaining 700 basis points of share over the last 20 years to become #2. As you can see, we've grown our business loan volumes from $16 billion to over $120 billion during this time. That's an 11% CAGR.
Our strong client relationships have been critical to our success. In fact, 70% of our 5-year loan growth has been from existing clients. And we're proud that over 50% of our commercial clients have banked with TD for over 10 years, with nearly 1,000 of those having been with us for more than five decades.
So what's our secret? It's our bankers. Our business bankers are trusted advisers for their clients, and I firmly believe that they are the best in the country. Much of our growth has been achieved because of the quality of our bankers and the advice they provide.
You might be wondering what enables our bankers to be so successful? Well, it starts with coverage. The business bank has strong national scale across all of Canada, but local coverage is really at the heart of our strategy. Being local matters to our clients. They consistently tell us that having their bankers close by allows for a richer understanding of their businesses, markets and needs, all key factors for giving great advice and developing deep relationships.
I hear it all the time. Business owners in Quebec City, want a banker who's there, not in Montreal, and if you live on Vancouver Island, you'd prefer your banker be there, too. And our commercial bankers are empowered with local decision-making. 80% of commercial credit decisions are made in market. This means faster decisions, better advice and stronger risk adjudication. And our local teams include customer support officers and cash management teams. Clients have told us, they appreciate knowing their service officers and dealing with them regularly instead of speaking to someone new every time they call. And it's not just our clients who love that our bankers are local, empowered and dedicated, our bankers do, too. And that's a big part of why we're able to bring in new talent and retain experienced bankers.
In fact, as you can see, the average tenure of our bankers is 11.5 years. That says a lot. It speaks to the culture here at TD. We genuinely care about our clients, our people and doing right by our communities all across Canada. And specialization is another important element of our strategy that's driven significant gains for our business. Many of our bankers are specialists in key industries. Their deep segment expertise means better advice, better risk adjudication and more value for clients, which contributes to the market share growth I mentioned earlier. For example, we began specializing in commercial auto in 2019 with the creation of our National Auto Group.
We brought together industry experts in everything from sales to credit who were completely focused on the auto sector. The result? Since the launch of this team, we've been able to take share every year for the last five years, as you can see on the right. Clients truly appreciate that our specialized bankers are immersed in their field. And while we have national teams that specialize in sectors like real estate, agriculture and automotive, for sectors like transportation and food and beverage, we've established local specialized teams to meet their clients' unique needs. Going forward, where we see opportunity and scale we will continue to specialize in new industries and segments to enhance the value we're delivering to clients and grow the business.
For instance, in 2023, we jumped at the opportunity to add bankers specializing in the tech and innovation space to establish our TD Innovation Partners team. This group is better equipped to work with and advise entrepreneurs and founders within the innovation economy from the startup stage to IPO.
And the success of our bankers goes hand-in-hand with our long history of disciplined risk management. We have a diverse portfolio with a stable mix of commercial and industrial and commercial real estate that reflects both the Canadian economy and our risk appetite.
But our approach to risk goes beyond diversification. At TD, we've embedded a strong credit culture throughout the organization and within the business bank. Our consistent and disciplined underwriting and through-the-cycle approach results in favorable PCL performance. It also means we can continue to have a growth mindset during periods of economic uncertainty.
In fact, it's not uncommon for us to gain share faster during economic downturns. As I've mentioned, we've grown this business 700 basis points over the last 20 years. That's a huge accomplishment, but it was achieved without compromising on our risk appetite, a strategy that won't be changing going forward. So it's our winning model and culture that's been behind the business bank's growth to become the #2 player in the market. With our strong efficiency ratio and consistent focus on returns, we are a significant contributor to TD overall.
But this is just the beginning. By accelerating our investment in new bankers, processes technology and AI will fuel growth in 2026 and beyond. Ray and my colleagues have already shared some of the outcomes and opportunities that have come out of the strategic review.
For Business Banking, it's reinforced that we're focused on the right areas strategically, operationally and financially. We are committed to growing the business and increasing our PTPP.
As we enhance our technology and increase automation, we will further improve our efficiency ratio while continuing to focus on profitability and ROE. It's this combined focus that drives our goal to grow PTPP at a high single-digit CAGR over the medium term.
So how are we going to do that? By expanding our client base, deepening our share of wallet and becoming more efficient. To drive substantial growth over the medium term, our plans are anchored in the enterprise pillars that you're now familiar with.
Let's start what we're going to do differently to build deeper relationships. We're going to invest in more revenue-generating frontline bankers, as I'll explain in a moment, and increase our focus on relationship banking across the enterprise. Earlier, I said that our bankers are the best in the business, and I really believe it. When you look at the past 10 years, a big part of our success in growing the book and taking share is directly tied to increasing the number of bankers we have. At the same time, we've increased the amount of revenue per banker. As you can see here on the left-hand side of the slide, we know that when we add more bankers, we win more business. It's a proven low-risk strategy.
With more revenue-generating frontline colleagues will increase the number of new clients and accelerate growth, growth in our loan book, growth in deposits and growth in other fee-generating products and services. That's why we're aiming to accelerate our investment in people, increasing our team of frontline bankers by 28% over the medium term.
Of course, we'll continue to develop all of our colleagues to ensure we maintain that high standard of client advice and service that's driven our success to date. With our deep client relationships and strong collaboration with other TD businesses, we are able to bring the whole bank to every client to meet more of their needs. Our ambition is to accelerate investment to increase relationship banking across TD.
Our large client base of 1 million businesses across Canada presents a significant deepening opportunity. How will we do it? First, will improve the client experience by making investments to leverage AI and scale self-serve and digital capabilities, which will also increase our share of wallet across all segments. In Small Business Banking, improvements to self-serve in digital will boost client acquisition, strengthen new relationships and reduce attrition within the first year. While investments in platforms like Global Transaction Banking will help us better serve our commercial clients, all of which creates capacity for relationship building.
What does this look like in action? In 2025, we implemented a new AI model to predict which small business customers might have a particular product need within the next three months. Our account managers take this information together with the product pre-approval and reach out to clients. Early results are terrific with a 26% increase in pre-approval take-up rates. But as importantly, clients appreciate that we've offered them what they want, when they want it and have made the process fast and easy. It's deepening and strengthening relationships.
The second way we're going to deepen relationships is by unlocking growth opportunities across the enterprise. Our partnership with Wealth is an excellent example. Business owners are busy. So by co-locating private bankers in our commercial banking centers, we are making clients' lives easier by collaborating to meet more of their needs, including wealth solutions in a way that's convenient for them.
Similarly, our wealth partners are introducing their clients with business banking needs back to us. The increase in wealth referrals you see here on the screen is significant, both because we're generating more leads and increasing the quality of leads, which is driving a better close rate for our wealth partners.
Beyond referrals, this is a testament to the trust that TD is built with our clients to take care of all of their needs across the bank. And a little -- in a few minutes, Paul will share with you a great example of how we are working together with Wealth and Winning.
Now let's look at our next pillar, simpler and faster. We have been on a journey to increase our speed and efficiency, making it easier for clients to work with us and for colleagues to get work done. While we've made strides in this area, there's a lot of opportunity to make even more progress.
Now business banking is always going to be a people business where relationships matter. Our relationships are strengthened when we can streamline administrative activities and make transactions easier for clients. It also frees up capacity.
For instance, this year, we streamlined the process to enroll new clients in our commercial banking web portal. It now takes just minutes. Not only does this improve the client experience, it frees up time for our bankers and clients to get to know each other better and discuss how we can meet their full set of financial needs. And now with new advances in AI, we're able to simplify processes like never before. Building on the simplification we've already achieved, the business bank is now accelerating our investment in technology and reimagining processes, which will make us faster and more cost efficient.
As you can see on this slide, over the medium term, we aim to onboard half of new small business clients digitally, significantly boost digital adoption and cut 1/3 of manual work in our operations group. This is going to provide a better client experience make us more cost efficient and free up more capacity for our bankers.
Let's look at an AI use case in our auto finance business. Imagine you're a finance manager at a car dealership. The customer in front of you has found the perfect car and they want to buy it. You filled out the paperwork for their loan and submitted it to TD. And now with the work we've done to enhance our credit auto adjudication for our prime customers, instead of sitting there and waiting for up to 25 minutes, that review takes just seconds for the large majority of applicants.
That's a huge time savings. It's made possible by our new proprietary automated decision platform that uses real-time machine learning for credit adjudication, the first AI model of its kind at TD. Dealers love it. It saves them time and helps them close deals faster. Clients love it. They find out instantly whether they've been approved, no wasted time, and we love it because we review 1.5 million credit applications every year.
But this time savings is not at the expense of credit quality. In fact, this process improves our portfolio credit quality since it drives a greater share of higher quality deals to TD.
To be clear, we've been using auto adjudication in our auto business for years, allowing us to process roughly 55% of prime applications automatically. Now with the AI enhancements I mentioned, we're auto adjudicating nearly 70% of prime applications, and we see a clear path in the medium term to auto adjudicate over 85% of all applications.
And in our commercial business, we're building automation tools for our more complex commercial deals including an AI-based tool to assist our bankers in assessing borrower and industry risk. This will support our goal of automating up to 70% of Commercial credit processes and reducing the time it takes us to do credit analysis and underwriting by 25%. Our goals are ambitious. But with a focus on disciplined execution, we are confident in our success.
The outcome of these technology investments over the medium term is twofold. First, a significant reduction in the manual work inherent in our processes, speeding up service levels and improving the client and colleague experience. And second, we'll drive run rate cost savings of $150 million to $200 million a year, improving our efficiency ratio.
Earlier, I spoke about adding new frontline bankers at an increased rate. And yes, there will be a cost to this. But history has proven that new bankers pay for themselves quickly and are accretive to the business.
Now how does all this translate to the bottom line? We expect to achieve a high single-digit PTPP growth CAGR in the medium term. As you can see on the left, our business as usual baseline has momentum thanks to our scale, local and specialized bankers and through the cycle approach. Additional growth will come from deepening relationships and becoming simpler and faster while reducing run rate costs. I'm confident the combination of investments and strategies I covered will drive earnings growth and attractive returns.
So to wrap up, the Canadian Business Bank is strong. We've built a model and a culture that our client and colleagues value. It's profitable. It's proven to drive growth, and we're positioned to capture even more by putting more bankers in more markets, meeting more of our clients' needs within business banking and across the bank and leveraging new technology to improve the client experience and be more efficient. We have a tremendous opportunity to supercharge our earnings growth and drive attractive returns. We're focused on the future, and I couldn't be more proud to lead TD's amazing business banking team in this exciting next chapter of our growth. Thank you.
[Presentation]
Good afternoon, everyone. It's a real pleasure to be here with all of you today. My name is Leo Salom and I'm the President and CEO of TD Bank in the U.S. And I joined TD about 14 years ago where I served as the Head of the Wealth and Insurance business before transferring to the U.S.
As I reflect on the last couple of years, it has certainly been a very challenging period for our U.S. business. But as we look forward, I believe that our U.S. business has been and will continue to be an important contributor to TD's growth aspirations and an integral part of the shareholder value story. So thanks again for joining us today.
Now let me just begin by describing our presence in the U.S. Today, TD is a top 10 retail and Commercial Banking franchise by total assets and the largest FBO in the U.S. a milestone achieved in just 20 years, unmatched by any other U.S. or global peer. We serve over 10 million retail clients and nearly 700,000 Small Business and Commercial clients. We operate a leading retail distribution network with 1,100 stores and approximately 29,000 colleagues who deliver a differentiated level of client service and advice each and every day.
We are deeply embedded in our communities we serve up and down the East Coast, from Maine to Florida. And across that footprint, TD enjoys a top 3 deposit market share position and we hold top 10 market share rankings across cards, consumer real estate lending, C&I and Commercial real estate lending. We have been the #1 SBA lender in our footprint for 8 consecutive years, providing critical capital and financing support to small businesses. And above all, our success has been built on an unwavering commitment to our clients.
In 2025, we earned the #1 ranking in dealer satisfaction in the J.D. Power U.S. Dealer Financial Satisfaction Survey for the sixth consecutive year and we regained the #1 ranking in Florida in the J.D. Power U.S. Retail Banking Satisfaction Survey.
And over the past two years, our U.S. franchise has delivered sustained growth marked by three distinct phases of expansion. First, through acquisition. We entered the U.S. by acquiring Banknorth in 2004, followed by the acquisitions of Commerce Bank and the South Financial Group. Together, these banks form the foundation of our U.S. bank.
Second, consumer asset build-out. We acquired the Chrysler Financial auto financing portfolio and launched our co-branded card partnerships with Nordstrom and Target.
And third, sustained Organic Growth. Over the last 10 years, we opened 250 de novo stores, expanded our small business and commercial banking segments and launched our national specialty banking franchise.
Now we certainly have come a long way in the last 20 years, but I would argue that we're still a young franchise with tremendous potential. And as I will highlight, we have an unparalleled opportunity to become a more efficient more profitable and more formidable competitor in the U.S.
Now the flagship of our U.S. bank is our deposit franchise. We enjoy strongholds in Greater Philadelphia, New York and New England, where our product deposit share well exceeds our brand share. We've made inroads in Florida and the Carolina's, our fastest-growing markets. And our consumer and commercial deposits have grown at a CAGR of 6% since 2019. And a stat that really speaks to the power of our deposit gathering capabilities, 76% of our deposits are held in markets where we hold a top 3 market position. And that includes Greater Philadelphia, where we enjoy a #1 position.
We're #2 in New York, #3 in Boston. And in Florida, we have now achieved a top 5 position. Essentially, where we decide to play, we win. This is a distinct competitive advantage providing us with significantly higher liquidity levels and lower cost of funding versus our end-market peers.
Now turning to our loan portfolio. Since 2019, our Core Loan book has grown at a CAGR of 4%, a direct result of a number of new product launches, new more sophisticated underwriting models, enhanced third-party partnerships and our proven One TD referral model.
But even with this resilient performance, though, we still have significant opportunity to accelerate loan growth within risk appetite while remaining compliant with the asset cap. It is important to point out that our loan-to-deposit ratio is just 56% overall, which represents a clear advantage versus our peers. And through our balance sheet restructuring program, which I'll cover in a moment, we've created significant capacity to continue serving the lending needs of our existing clients as well as new prospects in our communities.
Now before highlighting the opportunities ahead, I want to take a moment to reflect on the global AML settlement. October 10, 2024 was one of the most difficult days for anyone who has ever worn the TD Shield. Reflecting back, I take comfort in how we prepared for and weathered the days and weeks following the settlement announcement. And now almost a year later, we have made significant progress against our AML remediation. We've maintained stable deposit levels with minimal customer attrition. We've executed our balance sheet restructuring program, creating nearly $50 billion of headroom, we've completed our investment portfolio repositioning, contributing approximately $500 million in additional NII this year.
We've improved earnings sequentially throughout 2025, and our return on equity has improved by 140 basis points year-to-date. And finally, a particular point of pride for me is that our colleagues have been there every step of the way with employee attrition at its lowest level in over 7 years.
While there is more work to do, I do want to take a moment to thank the 29,000 U.S. colleagues for their resilience and dedication. And moreover, I want to sincerely thank our clients for their continued loyalty to TD Bank, we remain committed to earning their trust each and every day.
As Ray and I have previously shared with you, AML remediation is the bank's #1 priority with our full focus and commitment. We've completed a number of critical milestones. We have onboarded an outstanding AML leadership team. We've elevated our investigative capabilities, we've launched our next-generation transaction monitoring system, and we've implemented the first phase of our AI and machine learning solutions.
We expect to complete the majority of our management remediation actions by the end of this year with significant work and important milestones to come in 2026 and 2027. From a cost standpoint, we are tracking towards $500 million of spend this year and similar levels of spend in 2026. And as we complete our management remediation actions and make progress on the validation work, we expect that costs will begin to moderate accordingly.
Now as Ray outlined on many occasions, we embarked on a comprehensive strategic review process earlier this year. And as part of this review, we asked ourselves a lot of tough questions and identified a number of areas where we could accelerate growth and improve returns.
First, despite having created one of the most significant client franchises on the East Coast, we lack relationship depth with many of our clients. Second, today, we operate an overly complex legacy operating infrastructure, a carryover from some of our past acquisitions. And third, we had trapped capital in a few businesses where we lack scale and do not meet our hurdle rates.
So we're taking action. We have defined a series of strategic priorities to strengthen our franchise by deepening client relationships with our core retail and commercial clients, rationalizing and building an infrastructure commensurate with the size and scale of a top 10 U.S. bank, a precondition for long-term sustainable growth. And we're adopting a relentless focus on capital returns and shareholder value. So to that end, we have set ambitious targets for the years ahead.
In 2026, we are targeting $2.9 billion in NIAT which reflects double-digit earnings growth and a return on equity of 9.5%, up 100 basis points year-on-year. Our outlook reflects the benefits of our balance sheet restructuring activities and is an early indication of the earnings potential of the U.S. franchise.
Now looking ahead to the medium-term projections, we aim to deliver high single-digit PTPP growth an efficiency ratio in the mid- to high 50s, enabling a return on equity of 13%. And I do want to underscore that we expect to deliver these financial results while executing on 2 very important funded priorities.
First, we will continue to relentlessly prioritize our AML remediation efforts and our broader governance and control program. And second, we will purposely invest in digital, data, AI and technology infrastructure to position TD Bank as a leader in the U.S. banking industry.
Now let me tell you how we're going to deliver these targets. As I mentioned earlier, our deposit franchise is our key differentiator anchored by long-standing client banking relationships up and down the East Coast, a leading omni channel deposit acquisition model and a brand that is known and trusted in our footprint and gives us a distinct competitive advantage. Combined with our efforts to foster greater engagement and deliver innovative solutions, this provides a platform to drive greater relationship depth and accelerated revenue growth.
Now what does this mean for our revenue profile? We expect to deliver mid- to high single-digit annual revenue growth through the medium term. To achieve these results, we will execute against 4 core business priorities. First, we're Reimagining our Retail Distribution model with a focus on digital delivery. Second, we are scaling our consumer asset portfolio with a focus on growing our credit card franchise. Third, we're deepening our U.S. wealth business with a focus on our mass affluent segment. And finally, as you'll hear from Tim later this afternoon, we'll accelerate our commercial banking franchise in partnership with TD Securities.
Now beyond these powerful drivers, our revenue performance will also be impacted by higher tractor rates, higher investment portfolio returns and higher revenue share from the recent expansion of our Nordstrom strategic cards partnership. These tailwinds will be partially offset by non-core loan and Schwab deposit runoff.
Now let me discuss each opportunity in detail. Similar to the distribution changes that Sona referenced, our first deepening objective in the U.S. is reimagining our retail distribution model. Today, we have an exceptionally strong store network with a proven track record of deposit client acquisition. But increasingly, clients expect greater personalization and an elevated more seamless omni channel experience. And to that end, we are accelerating investments in digital & mobile capabilities across sales, onboarding and servicing.
Through these investments, we expect to increase digital acquisition to 50% of total sales, enhanced digital adoption to 70% and drive digital self-serve above 90%. This will create greater capacity for our store colleagues to provide advice to our customers on a broader suite of products and services, enabling a deeper relationship.
Now to facilitate the pivot to this advice-based model, we're retooling stores to our next-generation store design concept, which includes enhancing our self-service capabilities, creating private spaces for those advisory conversations, increasing specialists to deliver more lending, wealth and small business services and deploying digital merchandising and marketing to provide real-time customized promotional capabilities in our stores. To date, we have upgraded 175 stores or 16% of the total network, and we expect to have half of our network transitioned over the medium term.
In addition, we will continue our optimization efforts. Since 2020, we have closed 174 stores across the network while opening or relocating 62 stores. Looking forward, we expect to optimize a further 10% of our network by closing or relocating existing stores to high-opportunity areas within our existing MSAs.
Now turning to deepening opportunities. One of the most significant opportunities is our bank cards business. We've made significant investments in cards since 2022, including expanding our product offering, particularly our cash-back products with market-leading value propositions, enhancing underwriting capabilities using AI-enabled models, allowing us to extend credit to more clients than traditional underwriting methods. And extending and expanding our co-branded partnerships beyond 2030.
From 2022 to 2024, average bankcard volumes increased by 30%, a direct result of these foundational investments. And going forward, we look to accelerate the growth of our cards portfolio via our existing deposit clients which should reduce the cost per acquisition while mitigating our credit risk. To that end, we are targeting to increase overall bank card penetration to 30% of our deposit base up from 18% today. Coupled with our expanded Nordstrom partnership, this will generate approximately $700 million in incremental revenue through the medium term, a significant acceleration of the financial profile of our cards franchise.
Another significant opportunity to deepen relationships is the expansion of our Wealth franchise. With the sale of TD Ameritrade to Schwab, we are no longer bound by a shareholders agreement, restricting brokerage and Wealth Management activities in the U.S. We've already made some initial investments in the franchise, but we're doubling down on the strategic priority to expand wealth distribution focused on this mass affluent segment.
Just to give you a sense of the opportunity in front of us, approximately 30% of our existing 10 million client base qualifies as mass affluent. And they have over $600 billion in net investable assets at other institutions.
So how are we going to capture this opportunity? First, we're going to scale our adviser force by hiring 500 financial advisers incremental to the 220 that we have today. Second, we're going to capture our mature -- continue to mature our One TD model driving high-quality referrals to those advisers. And finally, we're going to tailor our investment products and services to meet the needs of this particular segment. Taken together, these activities should enable us to triple mass affluent assets and increase revenues by approximately $300 million through the medium term.
Now turning now to our commercial bank, we have built a scaled franchise with strong client relationships that have endured over decades. Our bankers aim to be our clients' most trusted advisers, working with them side-by-side through all economic cycles, and evolving stages of their businesses. These clients stood by us during our difficult time because as many of them shared with me, we stood by them during theirs.
And we're seeing the tangible impact of these relationships. We accelerated growth in our middle market and specialty banking areas and posted record levels of relationship banking fees over the past year. And looking forward, this targeted strategy will enhance cash management capabilities to capture greater deposit and fee opportunities, deepen relationships through greater specialization in our One TD model with a particular focus on the Middle Market and Specialty banking segments, leveraging our unique partnership with TD Securities.
And third, we'll expand lead agent positions driving higher fee income and enhancing overall returns. We will do this as we continue to execute on our balance sheet optimization efforts, recycling runoff capital into profitable loan growth. Collectively, our efforts should increase return on equity in our commercial bank by 500 basis points and increased core revenues by $700 million through the medium term. Now while delivering on these 4 core business priorities, certainly important, we must also evolve as a simpler and faster organization.
Turning to our balance sheet restructuring efforts, we have made significant progress simplifying the U.S. franchise in the past year. As you can see on the left side of the page, we have sold portfolios and initiated the wind down of businesses that were either not profitable or did not contribute to deepening relationships with core clients.
Now let me just give you one example. We are exiting the retail card services business. This is a business that we acquired as part of one of our past acquisitions. It has roughly 40 merchant counterparties, $3 billion in loan balances, a complex fulfillment model and simply put, wasn't delivering an adequate return on capital. Winding down retail card services allows us to redeploy capital to our bank card franchise, where we can deliver above average return on equity. And that's just one example.
When you consider all the actions that we've already taken, we've created roughly $50 billion of capacity versus the asset cap, and we will reduce nearly $20 billion of RWA, a 10% reduction from our 2024 levels.
Now our focus isn't just on simplifying our business mix. We're also simplifying our operating infrastructure. We are transforming our data and technology architecture to deliver a scalable, cloud-native modular environment, enabling us to better support colleagues and serve clients. This change will modernize our core architecture and apply end-to-end process transformation, including AI, to our most critical operations. And we're prioritizing several areas for AI deployment.
First, we're automating operational processes to significantly improve our cost to serve. Second, we're transforming our knowledge management solutions for stores and call centers, creating significant productivity for our frontline colleagues. And finally, we're enabling real-time data insights across all sales and servicing channels to deliver greater client personalization and greater client penetration across our suite of products and services. These are a small subset of what we're discussing as we begin to embrace AI across the bank at scale.
Now not only will these initiatives simplify our operating processes, but conservatively speaking, we estimate that these activities will reduce our operating cost base by $200 million through the medium term.
Now achieving the aspirational targets that we've outlined will require ruthless discipline and execution across the franchise. I've talked at length about our AML remediation efforts, but it's important to reiterate that we are uplifting our overall governance and control framework as well with a focus on key prudential risk like capital, liquidity and credit and integrated control and compliance program across all three lines of defense and robust leading fraud data and cyber platforms.
Now let me take a moment to elaborate on credit risk. We are very pleased with both the quality of our credit portfolio and our allowance coverage. In fact, we enjoy an allowance coverage ratio above both regional peers at money centers, a reflection of our prudent credit risk management practices. But finally, effective risk management is more than just strong policies and practices. It is all about culture. And as you've heard in Ray's remarks, we will continue to elevate our risk culture by investing in top talent across all lines of defense and promoting a culture of curiosity, accountability and ownership. In summary, we are building a strong foundation that will allow us to continue to consolidate our position in the U.S. market for years to come.
Now turning to a topic that I know is top of mind to all of you in the room, Strategic Cost Management. Historically, our U.S. franchise has been a top performer in efficiency versus peers. More recently, however, we've been impacted by elevated governance and control spend, but we remain dedicated to recapturing our top quartile efficiency ranking. Through the medium term, we will relentlessly [Audio Gap] focus on optimizing the store network, driving unit cost improvement through process reengineering and AI, reducing third-party spend. And finally, making investments to reduce the cost of running and operating our core infrastructure.
These actions, coupled with the moderation of our overall governance and control spend are expected to deliver approximately $750 million of cost takeout and an efficiency ratio in the mid- to high 50s through the medium term.
Now finally, over the past year, you've heard me talk at length about our focus on return on equity. We've seen those actions take shape in the third quarter, with return on equity of 8.9%, increasing 140 basis points versus the fourth quarter of 2024. I would note these figures include roughly 60 basis points related to the operational risk capital hit associated with the global AML settlement. We remain confident that we can return profitability to historical levels by sustaining momentum in core deposit and lending businesses, deepening relationship by executing on the core business priorities that I outlined earlier, completing the balance sheet restructuring program and delivering $750 million in structural expense savings.
Taken together, these actions should enable us to deliver 13% return on equity through the medium term.
Now in closing, TD is a top 10 retail and commercial banking franchise in the U.S. We have an enviable footprint in the U.S. in markets that have a collective population of over 100 million residents with a GDP in excess of $10 trillion. In fact, we operate in 5 of the top 10 MSAs in the country, and we serve these markets from a position of strength. We have one of the strongest capital and liquidity positions amongst U.S. peers with the financial wherewithal to invest and transform our U.S. franchise. And to that end, we have demonstrated our commitment to build a leading BSA/AML program in North America. And we have taken steps via our balance sheet restructuring to allow TD to continue to serve our clients and communities.
Looking forward, we believe in the U.S. market and the tremendous opportunity we have in front of us to continue to press our deposit advantage to accelerate the growth of our consumer and commercial lending franchises to build a wealth franchise serving the retirement needs of millions of Americans to transform our distribution model to better serve our clients' evolving expectations and to strengthen and optimize our governance and operating infrastructure, all of which will position TD as a stronger, more scalable franchise.
I want to thank you all for your time today and more importantly, for your support during this phase of our journey as we emerge as an even more formidable competitor in the U.S. Thank you.
Thank you, Sona, Barb and Leo. We'll now move into our first Q&A session. We'll begin by taking questions from those in the room. If you'd like to ask a question, please raise your hand and we'll bring you a mic. And please remember to introduce yourself. If you're watching on the webcast and would like to ask a question, please click the Ask button at the bottom of the page.
I would now like to welcome Ray, Kelvin, Sona, Barb and Leo back to the stage.
2. Question Answer
Matt Lee, Canaccord Genuity. Just wanted to know your 2026 guidance and medium-term targets, do they assume a status quo USMCA outcome at the review next year? And if not, do you have any concerns around potential for trade conflicts to escalate and maybe slow down the growth that you're expecting over the near term?
So maybe I'll start, Matt. Just if you look at 2026 or the medium term, what I would tell you is this, that we have already -- we have factored into our provisions as we shared through our quarterly updates about $600 million in reserves and allowances. And so from an uncertainty perspective, I think we factored that in.
As we look forward into our 2026 numbers and longer, now what we've shown consistently is that TD Bank is well positioned regardless of the uncertain environment, and we've shown we can manage that through the cycles. And then certainly, that holds true for the underwriting standards that we have. So when we say we're a through the cycle lender, we factor in that there are ebbs and flows on that side.
Now I will say, I mean, that is considering sort of the base case scenario that I think we've factored into what we think will be potential tariffs but let's see how the USMCA plays out on that side, but we are optimistic, as I said in my comments, that we do see -- at some point, I don't think it's going to get resolved in the short term. But I do think as the USMCA plays itself through, we'll continue to monitor, but we are well provisioned for that.
Just a quick follow-up. If the review doesn't confirm an extension in 2026, does that change your views around capital or CET1 comfort ratio?
Sorry, can you just repeat that question?
Yes, like your comfort around your CET1 ratio, does it change if you don't get an extension in 2026 for [indiscernible]?
Yes. So we will have to look at it. If you look at our medium-term outlook, our assumption in our model is -- CET1 ratio would be around 13%. And so we'll just manage that given the environment.
And again, I mean, I think the one advantage I'll add, Matt, and I think we pointed it out to everybody is the organic capital accretion that we expect to achieve sort of starting in 2027 getting back to a normalized rate. Which is considerably higher than any of our peers, allows us to weather different uncertainties, but also gives us quite a bit of flexibility on the CET1.
Mike Rizvanovic at Scotiabank. Maybe one for Sona. Just wanted to go back to the 700 basis point advantage that you noted on the customer primacy. And I'm wondering how that's trended over time? And then secondly, given that you're peer leading, does it become progressively harder to move the needle or even to maintain that? Because we are hearing all the banks talk about very similar things when it comes to the dynamic of customer primacy and getting that customer relationship deeper.
Yes. Great questions, Mike. So let me start at the top. From a primacy perspective, that level of primacy has been quite consistent for us. So we have a steady track record of performing at that level.
As you talk about do we have upside, can we hold the fortress and maybe even widen the gap? I'm actually quite optimistic on that front. So if I go back to our thesis, we've said we have these leading advantages. We lead in core banking, we lead in primacy, we lead in distribution advantage. And yet, we haven't yet achieved peer best-in-class on deepening. And I think I hinted to it, the operative word there is yet. And absolutely, I see that as well within the art of us achieving that. And so that -- as we do that, that's actually a positive force to reinforce the flywheel of primacy. So that's the first point.
The second one we've noticed is as clients go digital, when you think about active mobile clients where we today have an advantage, they're interacting with us 22 times a month. On a physical bricks-and-mortar context maybe decades ago, you wouldn't have seen that level of traffic from an individual client. So that actually gives us opportunity to continually reinforce that connection and relationship and as we onboard new clients in digital, if anything, we see the same or better primacy. So like all of these winds I see blowing in our favor. So we expect to continue to hold and widen our primacy advantage.
And -- can I -- just one quick one for Leo, not to sound facetious, but one of the priorities that you mentioned was the technology capabilities and your -- I guess, your tech infrastructure in the U.S. And you mentioned it was acquisition-related, but these deals go back to 2004, 2008. So what has precluded the bank from integrating tech in previous years? Has there been any hindrance that now maybe isn't holding you back?
Yes, Mike, I don't know if I want to revisit the past, but let me talk a little bit about the future. So we're doing a number of things from a technology standpoint. Well, first, we're rationalizing the overall technical and data architecture. We're looking at opportunities, whether it's in data to be able to consolidate onto our cloud-based infrastructure whether it's on the systems side, we're in the cards business, we're consolidating onto our single center of excellence platform.
In the commercial banking areas, we're taking processing, dual processing environments and converging them onto a single environment. And we're also modernizing. So we've embarked on a core modernization initiative to take our core back-end system and rewrite it to be able to reduce our run costs as well as reduce the cost of change, future innovation that will allow us to be much more innovative in terms of new product capabilities.
And then finally, I'd say where I think a lot of the opportunity is to be able to transform our businesses, it's to apply AI at scale in terms of end-to-end process engineering. And there, I think we've got the biggest opportunity because it's where you can really shave significant amounts of cost from our unit cost structure, which is going to be critical for us.
Because we're large enough right now that we have a degree of scale being a top 10 bank, but scale is being redefined in the U.S. continuously. And so for us to be focused on AI, focused on some of these process reengineering work will allow us to continue to become even more cost competitive in the future.
So those are the things that we're doing now, Mike, and I'm very confident that we'll be able to make progress on all those items.
Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America. Maybe just sticking on the cost topic. And Ray, I think you said you're going to reset the cost base fundamentally. Just talk to us, I get AI-led productivity, but beyond that, were the aspects of TD in terms of how expenses were managed and which probably was not the most efficient way. Like how is that changing on an operational standpoint? Because you all the time we hear about productivity improvement from all the banks. Just what should give us confidence in the way you look at the medium-term targets that you can actually achieve this operationally?
It's a very important question, Ebrahim. So thanks for asking that. Maybe I'll break it down into three parts.
Number one, we have outlined in your presentations sort of six very strategically important initiatives or buckets. And these are all structural costs. I mean this isn't about cutting your project spending or reducing your marketing spend. Those things all come back at some point over time. And I deliberately used the word structural cost reduction. And so if you think about the vast majority of those savings, the $2 billion to $2.5 billion are going to come from process reengineering, right? And so think about your top 20 processes.
I'll give you an example. If you're onboarding clients, whether it's credit cards, checking accounts, savings accounts, direct investing accounts, that onboarding process has a unit cost. And so one of the big, big shifts that you will see at TD Bank, and I don't think a lot of banks have gone down this journey. They're in industries manufacturing, that's very common. We are moving to a unit cost based model. And so every product leader will understand the end-to-end unit cost of look, for example, opening an account. And if it's just for round numbers, if that's $100, I would tell you that the vast majority of people would say, in the banking industry, especially as we automate and introduce AI and redesign and reengineer, you can reduce your structural costs in those top 20 processes between 20% to 30% at a minimum. Those top 20 processes account for about 60% of processing costs. That is a massive structural reduction.
Let me give you an example. I think TD Insurance, to me, is the terrific example of when I say structural cost reduction, what am I talking about? Go back 5 years in TD Insurance, we were a direct insurer, but we were a phone-based organization, which meant that every time we scale the organization, more people in the contact center, more people in our back office is processing the manual processing of the operations, we've made significant investments, and you're going to hear that from James over the last number of years to digitize and be the most modern digital platform in the insurance industry.
So what have we done? We've taken what would have been a very variable based -- variable expense based organization and made it flat fixed. The marginal cost of the next policy for TD Insurance is in the pennies. And when you're at 50% now digital sales end-to-end, no human intervention, that gives us a massive cost advantage, that is structurally reducing the cost of running the TD Insurance business, and you saw the numbers on efficiency for TD insurance. And that's why I've said -- that is the winning model going forward. I just wanted to give you a real example. We will replicate that across many, many areas of the organization. Procurement is another area.
When you're a company the size of TD with $6 billion in procurement on an annual basis, we have a significant opportunity to be much, much more disciplined. And so think about that program as the first -- this is probably, in my 30 years of being at TD everyone, the most focused, the most disciplined, the most comprehensive enterprise-wide structural cost reduction program that we're putting in place, and it's exactly why one of the big reasons that I've introduced a COO role and brought in Taylan Turan, who has run massive transformation programs to make sure that we don't lose focus on this. Then you overlay that with a change in the tone.
Make no mistake, everybody, we will get this work done and every leader in this organization is accountable, there's a different expectation around accountability. And I said that was one of the changes that we were making to our culture is accountability, courage and curiosity, right? And so I hope that helps you capture, Ebrahim, that we're serious about the cost reductions. I'm confident we're going to get it done. And we're already down the road. I hope you saw in my slide, $500 million already will be captured from our restructuring that we do this year that comes into next year, $400 million more in 2026. So $1 billion of the $2 billion, $2.5 billion, we will capture in the first year in 2026 as we move forward.
That was pretty comprehensive. I guess maybe for Kelvin, just around capital targets you put out, I think, 13% CET1 next year with the $6 billion to $7 billion in incremental buybacks, I'm not sure if you're doing the math incorrectly, but it implies either significant RWA growth. Just give us a sense, given the earnings accretion through now, through the end of '26 net of dividends, feels like you would have another $5 billion to $8 billion of excess capital. Are we missing something?
Yes. So let me clarify that. When we say 13%, really exactly what you're saying, there's going to be so much capital. We're not going to be able to grind it down to 13% in 2026. And so we just -- for this slide, we just basically expected it to be stable from -- throughout the MTO period as opposed to giving you a higher level and then grinding it down. But we're not expecting '26 to be getting to 13% levels yet, right? And then that's over time, we're going to grind down and then given the significant organic capital that we'll continue to generate, then we'll self-fund the business growth and also future NCIB as well.
And I think the important message that I want all of you to take away is the discipline that we will manage capital going forward is different, right? And so I think we've been clear the organic opportunities that you would have heard already this afternoon, and you're going to hear from the rest of the speakers is significant. So that is priority one. But we have to be more disciplined, Ebrahim, on how we manage capital even within our businesses, and you heard from Leo, some of the decisions that we've made in the first year to exit non-core businesses. And so I do think the bar, we will hold ourselves high on making sure that all the businesses that we invest in are accretive from an ROE perspective. So that's one.
The second is if there is excess capital above and beyond the dividends that we return that we will consistently return that excess capital back to our shareholders to create long-term value if we don't see an opportunity from an M&A perspective. And we do think that there will be selective opportunities, and I use that word very intentionally selective M&A opportunities and we look at those and where we've seen success is where they add capability or allow us to scale an existing area, right? And so I think -- and when Tim comes up, he'll talk about the acquisition of Cowen. That is a perfect example where we are selectively using our capital to accelerate the growth but there will be much, much more disciplined around capital management as we move forward at TD Bank.
Sohrab Movahedi, BMO Capital Markets. A quick question for Ray first. Ray, you said there are no change in risk-appetite. And presumably, in the first instance, we all think of that as credit quality, but you've also said I'm going to move faster and I'm going to deploy AI at scale. The cynic in me says you've changed your risk-appetite. So tell me what can't go wrong if you're moving quickly and deploying stuff that may be unproven?
Sohrab, thanks for the question. Let me just start by saying, first and foremost, everybody, our colleagues are excited about the changes that we're proposing. And why do I say that? I mean this theme of simplicity and speed, I would tell you that there is risk, Sohrab, when you're slow. There's risk from a response to customers. There's risk in real-time data to make faster decisions around fraud and so when we talk about speed and simplification and speeding up our organization, in many ways, we're going to reduce our risk.
We're going to reduce the cost to run our organization and be more efficient and you've seen our efficiency go the wrong way over the last number of years. And so the introduction of AI, automation, all of that takes out also manual work. And when you have complex organizations like a TD Bank or any big bank, having manual operations and where there's lots and lots of manual work creates potential for errors, creates potential for risk. And so I see this, Sohrab, as not only speeding up and making our organization more efficient but reducing the risk for the organization.
And I can tell you, as I go across our entire organization and I speak to our clients -- our colleagues and tell them, our strategic focus is about deepening our relationships, speeding up and simplifying our organization so they can do the jobs that they've been hired to do, and our clients can engage with us regardless of business line simpler. My goodness, the excitement is contagious across the order. So I hope that answers your question, Sohrab, but I actually do think we're going to reduce our risk, not increase our risk.
That's helpful. Just the $1 billion or so of benefit from AI, I think 50-50 between revenue and expenses, just curious as to how you arrived that billion -- at that $1 billion. Is that just the plug to get you to the 16% medium term? Or is that...
I knew this question would come at some point, right? But Sohrab...
And then more importantly, how do we -- like how do we track of what you have to invest to get that benefit? I mean is it a good trade-off if you have to spend $2 billion to get $1 billion.
It's a good question. And I do want to dial the clock back a little bit in what I said in my speech. We have been on this AI journey since 2018 when we purchased Layer 6. And so I know a lot of organizations are on the bandwagon fairly recently and all excited. We've been at this journey for 7 years, right? And so our -- we have the learnings that we've had has been extraordinary, 2,500 colleagues at a minimum that are dedicated in our own house, I just can't emphasize to everybody how important that is, first of all, right, that we are not relying on third-party vendors for everything that we do. Our talent is in our own house and is proprietary and we're investing and growing, and we've been doing that for 7 years.
And if you speak to any of the leading AI experts in the world, they will tell you that is a massive differentiator for TD Bank that we have the scale within our business within the AI field. So I just wanted to emphasize that. So when you sort of say like how did we get to the $1 billion, it has been, first of all, a comprehensive bottoms-up exercise. So we went out to every single business area across the entire organization in both Canada and the United States and in TD Securities globally to look at from a bottoms-up what are all the real practical examples of where we are applying AI right now or very near future?
And what will the cost savings and revenue opportunities be? And so it's been actually a very bottoms-up and you'll hear throughout the course of today, and I'll hand it over to my colleagues to talk about real practical moments that we're implying right now. And so this is not about savings that are coming, these are some of these stuff, Sohrab, is things that we're recognizing and realizing as we speak. So maybe I'll pass it over to some of my colleagues.
Maybe I can start adding on there, Ray. Sohrab, so one of the things that I really like and the approach that we've taken is the discipline that Ray talks about is what we're applying as we grow the deployment of AI. What we're doing is looking at specific cases, patterns, if you will, and perfecting them, like really perfecting them and then using that and scaling across the organization. So if I look at Knowledge Management solutions. So we talked about we first put it into play in NACO, our contact center.
And it took us a certain amount of time to actually come through the curve of learning, getting to the accuracy and the intuitiveness that our colleagues need, we've really perfected that. And then what we do as we're building it for my branch teams now, we took that same learning, and we actually delivered the tool for branches in 1/3 of the time that it took us for our contact center deployment with 20x the scope. So it's really a case of pattern recognition. And now we're doing this next thing in the Canadian personal bank is now moving on to Agentic AI.
And so our operations teams have really owned that hand in hand with the Layer 6 team. They are coming up with incredible ideas by taking a part that full process and saying, which are the parts that are incredibly manually intensive, that slow down, speed to decision. And as they do that block by block, it's the same idea. Let's perfect the first case with Agentic and then scale from there. So what you will not see us do is it's not like 1,000 trees or flowers that we're planting and hoping many of them bloom. We're actually taking specific use cases, honing them and then scaling them.
I could give you one good example, everybody. And just Sona triggered me, Sohrab, just to make it real for everybody. When we did this Knowledge Management system in the contact center, for those of you that cover contact centers, you know how precious 1 second of average handle time. I mean that is a critical metric in the contact center, how long does a colleague spend on the phone. And so 1 second, an incremental 1 second of handle time in the contact center is equal to $100,000 in cost. Just absorb that, right?
And so when we have colleagues that have to then call into a resource desk because there's a lot of churn in a contact center, right? They have to call into the resource desk where the experts sit to get an answer, that wait time that they have is very, very expensive potentially, right? And so now we've introduced a knowledge management system through AI, GenAI that they can, at their desktop, get the answers that they've been historically going to the resource desk and figure out from there how much average handle time in seconds we are saving.
And what does that translate to as a bottoms-up cost exercise as per Sohrab your question. I just wanted to give you one real example of what's been implemented, now overlay that into the thousands of colleagues that Sona is talking about in our branch network that will be implementing the exact same GenAI capability across the entire branch network as we move forward.
John, did you have a question?
John Aiken with Jefferies. Leo, in your commentary, one thing that stood out to me that was interesting was the low attrition rate that you're currently seeing with your employee base. Can you talk to your employee engagement measurements, however, you do that surveys, whatever, in terms of where it stood in the dark days of the AML, where you stand today and where that actually sits relative to where employee engagement was prior to all the AML issues bubbling up?
John, maybe I can take you back. We held a meeting, in fact, a live broadcast with 29,000 employees the day of the actual [indiscernible] or I should say, the day after. And in that day, we had a very frank conversation about what had happened, what was the path forward, what I needed from every employee in the organization.
And I promised them that we would engage them fully on a monthly basis in terms of giving them a sense of our journey forward. And that's exactly what we've done. We have kept doing live broadcast communicating in terms of the changes we've made to our AML infrastructure, the changes we've made in core processes, the investments that we're making, and I cannot tell you, John, how proud and humbled I am by the response of TD.
I think the organization felt itself in a place that it was -- it had never been, we had historically held ourselves out as leaders in risk and governance and finally, finding themselves in debt with a tremendous task ahead of us. Some organizations might have turtled, in our organization, I could not be more proud of the way people stood up and said, no, no, we've got to defend the shield. We've got to move forward. And a year into this, I think you can look to what's been accomplished and say that's a terrific set of deliverables.
But what I'm most proud of is the fact that to a person, the organization has expressed a commitment to trying to build the organization we need to be for the next 10 years as opposed to focusing on what might have happened or might not have happened in the past. And so once again, John, long-winded way of saying, I couldn't be more proud of the -- my TD colleagues in the U.S. Thank you.
Paul Holden, CIBC, question for Sona and maybe for Leo as well. Just thinking about the themes you're talking about today, digitization, speed, efficiency, those things don't make me think of the traditional bank branch. So just wondering how you're sort of balancing the push for efficiency versus maintaining the branch network. And maybe really the question is like, why not accelerate the pace of shrinking that branch footprint?
I can start. Thanks very much. It's a very fair and good question and one that we should talk about. As I look at our branch network, we've led both in our branch network and in our mobile network. I think what is really important, especially here in Canada, and TD is no different. We generate incredible growth through our branch network. So even today, 70% of new client acquisition and complex sales happens through our branch network and so this is a real balancing act, I would say.
As we think about it, there are both revenue upside opportunities as well as cost transformation opportunities. Both are important. It's not a one-way direction of travel. And so one of the things that we've done in our branch network is we've actually upped our game in specialization. We've seen that as clients increasingly come to the branch. They're coming in their complex moments, and so we've redeployed colleagues already, and we're actually planning to double down on that redeployment to catch that specialized need that clients are manifesting.
There are absolutely opportunities as we see digitization happening and clients are definitively moving that way. When I think about that in the context of TD, we have above average -- peer average foot traffic in our branches. It's 30% more, it amounts to 30 million transactions, definitely over time, that will migrate to mobile, but it doesn't lessen the in-moment benefit that branches generate. So for me, it's really about sequencing.
As that activity migrates, our colleagues can focus more on complex advice moments and then when there's capacity, as we've done over the last 10 years, we adjust staffing mix, we adjust hours, we adjust footprint. That's a well-tread combination. It's not entirely new. It's well-tread and it's something that with the right team, we can actually get that revenue cost trade-off, but sequencing is incredibly important. So I don't see pacing ahead of that, that would be impairing our revenue growth.
Yes. Maybe I can add, Paul. Just to build on Sona's point, first thing I would say is our store network is a differentiator. So I think it's an incredible valuable source of both net new deposit-gathering activities as well as increasingly, it's going to be the source of the sale of more complex products and services. As we try to pivot and become a deeper organization with our clients, I think the store network -- the character of the store network will change. Maybe the positioning of that store network might change and evolve over time.
But I still think stores are going to be an invaluable part of the overall distribution mix. What we do have to do though, is continuing to invest deliberately in the digital channels so we can provide a much more fulsome servicing platform. So we can take those less or more basic transactions out of the stores to permit that pivot to take place towards advice. But I do think that's a revenue lift play for us as well.
We'll certainly look to consolidate some stores. I gave you some stats in terms of what we've done since 2020. We'll continue to do that as a matter of course. But what I really care about is how quickly can I get that pivot? Because with that will come higher lending volumes that will come greater wealth relationships and hopefully, greater small business partnerships as well. So that pivot, I think, is critically important for us.
The only thing I'll add, though, Paul, is that historically, and even today, I mean, you heard from Sona, that our model attracts in many ways because we win new to Canada in many ways, but it does attract a higher propensity for branch, right? And so you've got clients today, and I think that's where we have an outsized opportunity from a cost management as we move forward while delivering the experience that clients want. So we are very conscious, Paul, that we have 30% more foot traffic in our branches for a very specific reason. Our client base starts there, right? And that's why we won from a new to Canada. And we've been very strategic in where we place our branches across both Canada and the United States to take advantage of that.
So as we transition to digital, you want to make sure, and we want to make sure that we're providing from a sales perspective, service perspective, I think we're well positioned on sales, that we remove all the friction, and so that clients can actually go end-to-end, and that's where you're seeing acceleration of our spend and our focus, but it is providing us, over time, a greater opportunity on cost management than any of our competitors because the structure of our client base and our transactions in our branches, and we've got longer hours and the density with our branches being in more urban markets, will provide more opportunities as we get better from a digital perspective.
And then, Ray, one question for you. As I think about your messaging regarding capital allocation, you've obviously gone through a very deep and long strategic review of the business, arrived at the decision to return most of the rest of the capital from Schwab through buyback and then you talked about M&A would come if there were product or capability gaps. So I guess my assumption would be you don't see any product or capability gaps today that need to be filled. Is that a correct assumption? Or is it there might be some, but you just have other priorities today where you just don't see timing of M&A is appropriate?
Thanks for the question, Paul. I'd say the -- it will be very clear as we go through the rest of the afternoon, the priority for TD is organic growth. We think there is considerable outsized opportunity inside of our organization when it comes to that. And I do think you have to prioritize. You can't be great at everything. And so we have prioritized through the strategic review organic growth as the priority. The benefit that we have, even after we returned $6 billion to $7 billion of capital to our shareholders next year, that because of our both organic capital accretion and our strong capital position, we will have the flexibility if selective opportunities do occur, it's not a priority for us.
As we've come through the strategic review, Paul, and M&A right now is not a priority, you heard from Leo, getting the remediation done in the United States, the AML is the #1 priority there. And then you overlay organic growth as from a growth perspective, our greatest opportunity on that side. And then the focus and discipline that we will have around cost management as we execute the six strategic -- sort of the six pillars of our structural cost reduction across our organization. Look at those three as sort of the key priorities for this organization over the next 12 months.
The first question I've got is on buyback here. Is it plausible that this is more of a permanent feature of your capital deployment plan than it has been in the past? Maybe there's a shift in priorities, it sounds like, a desire to give capital back, but also to hit the 7% plus or almost kind of have to from an earnings per share growth standpoint.
So Gabe, maybe I'll take it. I mean I've been -- as I said in the commentary, Gabe, I mean, it is what we are going to do on a go-forward basis is part of the discipline around capital management and because of the fact that we have an outsized organic capital accretion, we think we have the ability to invest in organic the way I just talked about, look at sort of opportunistic moments for acquisition, but consistently return back majority of our excess capital back to our shareholders. We think that's the right thing to do from a shareholder value long term. But we have the flexibility as we sort of play out our strategy. But it is a fundamental change in how we will manage our capital going forward.
Maybe I can add to that. So if you look at our MTO, we're not relying only on share buyback to drive the EPS growth. You look at our PTPP growth, we expect to be mid- to high-single-digit. So that's the biggest driver of EPS growth and then the consistent return of capital is also the need to manage the denominator because we generate so much capital and earnings are so strong if you don't buy back shares, your denominator will continue to balloon and you're not going to be able to hit the 16%. So it's really a balancing act of managing ROE, EPS and growth at the same time.
Yes. I concur with that. Other one, just in case I missed it, the $2.5 billion of cost savings down the road, is there any -- I know we wrapped up or just about wrapped up a restructuring program. Are we going to see more of those to get to the next level? Or is this built into your kind of run rate already?
No. From a restructuring perspective, we don't believe we'll need to do a restructuring to get into the $2 billion, $2.5 billion. Now inside of that $2 billion, $2.5 billion is the half -- $500 million in 2026. That will be the carryover from the restructuring in 2025. But then the balance of it, we see it as structural cost reductions without requiring a restructuring charge.
Okay. And that number just conceptually, is this -- I think it was asked on the earnings call earlier this year, like most of that stuff gets reinvested. So the cost savings are something that you view as facilitating internal investment?
That's a good question, Gabe. The majority of that $2 billion, $2.5 billion, we see -- would see it flowing through to the bottom line.
Shalabh Garg from Veritas. So I see you've identified $20 billion of loan within the non-core portfolio in the U.S. retail, so a couple of questions there. Do you expect the core loan growth portfolio to outpace the non-core portfolio runoff? And then, b, do you see this as an opportunity to grow your core loan portfolio above the market rates over the next 3 to 5 years?
Yes. Thank you for the question. So just to answer the core growth, we do expect core growth to be at or above overall market growth rate. So we think we've got the flexibility, the capacity to be able to do that. With regards to core, non-core, I think last time we were together, I did mention that we were looking at a portfolio that we would either reprice or and/or exit. That will take place over the next 3 years. You could see the overall level of loan growth still contract in the first and second quarter of next year, but we would expect thereafter core loan growth to be able to overcome and for us to be able to post overall loan growth in the portfolio.
And if I could just add one additional because I think we've made the point, but if I could ask everyone to take away one point is with the actions that we've taken thus far, we've executed the balance sheet restructuring and the point that Kelvin raised in his presentation around the non-HQLA exposure, we do have $90 billion of headroom on a pro forma essentially $180 billion, just under $180 billion loan book. So to the point of can we grow, I just want to make sure that everyone is clear, we can absolutely grow our core loan growth. And certainly, through the MTO period, we would not have any restrictions or obstacles to be able to put on high-quality in risk-appetite, loan exposures on the book.
And then I see there's an expectation for lower sweep deposit balances, and I get it's part of the agreement and its 8 years from now in terms of the life of that agreement. So do you expect this agreement to carry forward now that you are expanding your wealth through adviser acquisition. Is there any risk over there?
Which agreement, I'm sorry.
The IDA agreement.
So we did, as you know, we did renegotiate that IDA agreement. It now is extended through 2034. I don't necessarily want to speculate on what's going to happen post 2034. But we do have -- the agreement provides for a floor at $60 billion. I would expect them to operate to a buffer off that floor. And so within the next few quarters, I would expect them to start to stabilize what their overall balance level is. And barring any major changes in the markets, I would expect them to keep that relatively constant over the life of the agreement.
It's Darko from RBC. A question for Kelvin on your Slide 44, where you present sort of path to the higher ROE? I'm wondering if you could just unpack the 300 basis points of reduction. How much of that is PCL taxes? And then the other one is 50 basis points, which is the one that's sort of confusing to me is sort of RWA growth net of buybacks. I view both of those as actually positive to ROE, like RWA growth is organic deployment and a buyback would help with the denominator of the ROE. So maybe you can just unpack these two. And if it's too complicated, happy to talk about this mathematically outside if you...
I'm glad you described the slide because Slide 44, I have to think about it. Sure. So on the first one, the 300 basis points, I would say that first look at it on the headwinds, we have Schwab equity pickup that is going to go away. That's an important component. And then another component then is that we currently have a bunch of cash sitting on our balance sheet that is earning. We call it earnings on excess capital. And as you buy back shares, that earning is going to go away. So those two components alone, it's about 100 basis points of that. So whether you put it in that column or put as part of the RWA column, you can think about it that way. And then the rest of it, the 200 basis points, the biggest component is really taxes. And then you have the other items, which are much smaller.
And then I would say on the RWA and NCIB, one way to look at it is you need to grow RWA in order to generate the PTPP that you see on the left-hand side of the graph. And so RWA consumes capital. And one way to look at it is you actually have to issue capital to support that. And so the NCIB is effectively our way to self-fund the RWA growth through our organic earnings. And so you basically see here is that we can generate organic earnings and that will self-fund any capital increases that we need on the denominator. So it's almost like flat there. But if we need more detail, we'll go through it. There are various ways of presenting that, but that's how we're thinking about it.
I'll do a slightly different attribution analysis later and my question for both Barbara and Leo. In your presentations, you're essentially going through what's going to be a process of some significant hiring activity, commercial bankers in both cases and then also Leo, a lot of advisers. Why is now the time to increase and go above past levels of hiring growth? And who are you hiring these people from? Are these experienced commercial bankers, experienced wealth advisers. And maybe you can just speak to why now in the middle of all this uncertainty is the time that we could grow the commercial business by simply hiring people, possibly hiring people away from others.
Darko, the response might be a little different depending on the geographies. So let me talk about it in the U.S. In the U.S., there's two areas that I think we are under scale in terms of our coverage model. First is the small business coverage. Despite the fact that we have an incredibly strong small business franchise, #1 SBA lender in the U.S. for 8 consecutive years. We still don't have the sort of coverage across the footprint that I think is required to be able to be at scale.
So I would expect just growing into our natural small business coverage, more akin to the coverage profile that we've achieved in Canada would be something that we would want to do in the U.S. And we already have a great brand in that space. We've got great followership. We've got an installed base. We have 700,000 clients. We're a little underrepresented on lending on non-SBA lending. So I think that just lends itself to be able to shore up what is already a very strong part of the overall commercial bank. The other area, which is where we're less developed. We did embark on a national mid-market strategy like some of our competitors did.
And I do believe that we have an opportunity to be able to selectively and prudently continue to build out our mid-market capabilities, continue to invest in our specialty national capabilities, potentially specialized with greater precision. And ultimately partner really effectively, and I'm sure Tim will talk about this a little bit more, but leverage TD Cowen's strong mid-market client base and mid-market sponsor base to be able to power accelerated referrals and accelerated growth in that space.
Just to give you a sense, we've already hired three senior executives from TD Cowen, moved them over into the commercial bank to be able to create that stitching between the two groups. And you can point -- you can look at the results that we've achieved thus far. We're seeing near-double-digit growth rate in mid-market in a market that's somewhat muted. And that's directly as a result of the partnership that's still developing. So I do think, to your point, maybe it's a little idiosyncratic to what we're living right now with the marriage of TD Securities and TD Cowen and the bank. But I'm really optimistic about what we're going to be able to do in that space.
So maybe quickly in Canada, Darko, it's a little bit different when you look at small business banking advisers versus commercial. So I'll start with small business banking. But really in both sides, we are a little bit under-clubbed from a frontline banker perspective versus some of our key competitors. So we've been able to grow the business nicely and take share despite not having as many feet on the street, if you will. So we see a lot of opportunity to accelerate growth even in this environment by closing that gap a little bit. On the small business banker side, where do we get them from?
It's a combination of experienced folks from outside, but really a lot of our hiring into the small business is really from other parts of the bank from Sona's business. Thank you, Sona. So we'll see people progress in their career from being a branch-based adviser, maybe a branch manager, moving into small business banking to expand on their experience. We find it's a very effective way to staff small business banking. These are people who know TD, know the culture. They have serviced small business banking clients in the branches.
They know what good customer service looks like. And we can get those folks trained up pretty quickly. So in kind of 6 to 12 months, they're fully productive on the small business banking side. In Commercial Banking, it's a little bit more balanced between internal hires and external. We hire a lot of early talent into the commercial bank. We train them up. We've got a fair number of folks who are sort of promotion ready, they're ready to step up. And by opening up new roles that we're looking to fill, we can give those folks the opportunity. But we do also hire a fair bit from outside of TD from other financial institutions, so experienced bankers.
The other thing I would say is that in both small business banking and commercial, we don't sort of hire a new banker and give them an empty book and ask them to go out and bring on board their first new client. We do rebalance of the portfolio. And so the new bankers are they're starting with the portfolio and with a portfolio of clients that they're going to start to look after. And then both the new bankers and the existing experienced bankers have more capacity to go out and generate new business.
I know we're at time. But maybe, Darko, just if I sort of take all of this and say that across the enterprise, we have put a singular focus around deepening relationships, which will then carry through to the prioritization of our investment dollars. And so where will we invest our dollars as we go forward. And in the past, you might have had different business lines sort of prioritizing different things, and that becomes challenging, right? And so when you have the acquisition engine that we have, when you have the scale of TD Bank in both Canada and the United States, and we're serious about this deepening organic opportunity.
One of the big restrictions as to getting to that is actually having enough people to catch the business, and you're going to see the referral flow that Sona talked about to the wealth management business or Barbara is putting to the wealth, but you're going to have people to catch this, right? And so we have prioritized deepening across the entire organization and that is why we're making these substantial investments.
And you're going to hear from Paul Clark and the investments that we're making in the Canadian wealth business because we have the clients, but we need to make sure that we are creating the capacity and have the people feet-on-the-ground, local talent matters, both in Canada and United States. So I just wanted to add that, Darko, that when we say this is a priority, it also means that it lines up against all of our investment spending going forward.
Thanks, Ray. That was a great discussion. Thank you all so much for your questions. We'll now take a longer 20-minute break. Refreshments are available on the south side of the conference center where lunch was served. Thank you.
[Break]
Welcome back, everyone. Next up, we'll see presentations by Paul Clark, Senior Executive Vice President, Wealth Management; and then James Russell, Executive Vice President and President and CEO, TD Insurance; and finally, Tim Wiggan, Group Head, Wholesale Banking and President and CEO, TD Securities. After the presentations, we'll move into our second Q&A session.
[Presentation]
Good afternoon, everyone. My name is Paul Clark, and I lead Wealth Management in Canada and TD Asset Management globally. I've been with TD for over 30 years and part of the wealth team for the past 10, and I'm really excited to share our story and the long-term value this business is creating by deepening existing relationships, unlocking new opportunities in personal and commercial banking and continuing our long history of driving efficient and high-return growth to our shareholders.
Ours is a unique story grounded in 3 essential elements. We have the largest in-house pipeline of any wealth management firm in Canada. We're uniquely positioned to monetize this pipeline given our leadership in direct investing, our investment excellence in TD Asset Management and our scaled advice offering. And we'll continue to leverage the value of our business mix and focus on efficient and accretive growth to take market share while strengthening our industry-leading ROE.
Let me ground you in who we are today. We're a scaled and innovative leader with $1.2 trillion in assets and 2.6 million clients. And as you can see, we have a franchise that's benefited from 40 years of organic growth and a history of innovation centered around direct investing. We've continually reinvented our business to meet our clients where they need us most. And as a result, we're #1 in direct investing, #1 in institutional asset management and #1 in private trust. Let's transition to our acquisition pipeline.
Look, if there is one slide you take away from today's presentation, it's this one. It starts with 1 million affluent clients in direct investing without a private wealth management relationship, and it extends to the 11.5 million personal banking clients without a wealth relationship or product. Together, they represent the largest in-house opportunity of any wealth firm in Canada. And when you combine this with the industry-wide $1.2 trillion in assets crossing generations that are 4x more likely to switch firms, our leadership in direct investing, along with the fact that TD Bank's 1 in 3 Canadians positions us to capture an outsized share of this growth and these flows.
Now what gives me confidence that we can execute? Look, it starts with Easy Trade. It's built to attract the next generation of investors. It extends to financial planning and private banking direct which allow us to reach into every market in Canada at scale virtually. And it now expands to private bankers co-located in retail branches together with those already located in our commercial banking centers and leverages our new family office to serve ultra-high net worth clients. In aggregate, our expanded offering and our approach to distribution now positions TD Wealth to cover every segment and every market in Canada. In fact, as part of the strategic review, Ray challenged us to strengthen our alignment across the bank.
For wealth, this is essential. And why? Because the bulk of our growth has and will continue to come from our Canadian banking partners. It's our secret sauce. The review confirmed the opportunity and our approach to deliver this growth. Together, this will increase our mix of fee-based assets as we grow to $1.6 trillion, accelerate our revenue CAGR to high single digits, sharpen our efficiency ratio, all while extending our industry-leading ROE. And look, it all starts with deepening relationships. And this isn't new to us. This is how we've grown our business from the ground up. And today, it's more important than ever.
Accumulated wealth in Canada is at record levels. The intergenerational transfer of wealth has begun, and clients are looking for advice and digital tools that meet the challenges of the moment, and we've got them. Let me walk you through how we've uniquely positioned ourselves to win with both human advice and digital experiences. Canadian Personal Banking is at the core of this opportunity. We have an established track record of deepening relationships and consolidating assets from our competitors. For every dollar referred by personal banking to wealth, we consolidate $4 in direct investing, $3 in financial planning and $3 in private wealth management.
Let me be clear. This incremental growth, it's at the cost of our competitors, and it drives market share. In aggregate, we're targeting $40 billion in new assets annually just from this one opportunity, and we're already at $27 billion year-to-date. This represents a significant portion of our asset growth in the medium term. And as you can see, as importantly, it improves client retention in retail by 4x and allows additional opportunities to deepen these relationships right across TD. Every single number on this page tells our story. Every day, some of these branches work closely with our advisers to build relationships and address our clients' long-term investing needs. This partnership is grounded in understanding our clients personally and professionally.
The combination of a personal banker and a wealth adviser enables us to support their everyday banking needs and is the catalyst to understanding their long-term investing goals. When you combine the bank's leadership in primacy and layer in a wealth professional, TD is perfectly positioned to win, and the results confirm it. Closed referrals to private wealth management this year alone are up 20%. I want to highlight another hidden gem. You heard from Barb about our co-location of private bankers and commercial and the impact it's having on new business for both of us.
As a matter of fact, just last month, Commercial Banking introduced a client to our family office, and we landed that deal worth several hundred million dollars. And we landed that deal because we had a private banker on the ground because of a seamless relationship with commercial and because our family office was ready to win. None of this was in place a couple of years ago, and all of it represents new opportunity for TD Wealth. This is just one of many examples where Barb's team and my team operate as one and closed referrals from the commercial bank, they're up an unbelievable 45% alone this year.
The opportunity inside wealth is equally impressive, and this is a story we've never shared with you before. No other bank has a direct investing business like ours, 1 million affluent clients, 75,000 high net worth clients and $275 billion in high net worth and mass affluent assets, all without the benefit of our advice. They've already chosen TD. The opportunity in front of us is to deepen these relationships, and we already have a head start. Every day, our direct investing high-value client team provides them with exceptional service grounded in deep personal connections. As a result, the average tenure of these clients, 20 years, truly incredible. These relationships extend through generations and position the team to introduce our DI clients to private wealth management at the right moment, at the moment that matters to them. It's the epitome of delivering relationship banking in a digital business, and I've seen it firsthand.
We have a high net worth family who are DI clients across generations. I've known them for over 10 years. I've watched our team introduce these clients and their children to our advice professionals in the moment that mattered most. And for them, it made all the difference. No other firm in Canada brings these businesses together quite like we do. And I'm proud to say that private wealth management and direct investing already share 100,000 clients. This integrated approach is clearly meeting their needs, combining the best of DIY digital tools alongside professional portfolio management, tax and estate planning and private banking. Flows between direct investing and private wealth management, where they used to be measured in the hundreds of millions of dollars. This year, we've already crossed $3 billion.
By the end of the medium term, we anticipate annual flows to advice will exceed $5 billion in assets. Only TD has the team, the platform and the population of high net worth direct investing clients to bring this opportunity to life. To take advantage of all the opportunities internally and externally, we have to accelerate the growth of our adviser base. Over the next 4 years, we'll expand this team by 1,200. We have a long history of growing our talent pool organically. In fact, many of our most successful advisers began their careers in personal and commercial banking. They're culturally aligned, understand how to navigate our branch network and most importantly, how to unleash the power of relationship banking.
Over 50% of this expansion has come from colleagues within TD and the remainder from our competitors. Both groups see the value of our pipeline, the integration of our businesses and the tremendous TD opportunity in front of them. They chose financial planning as former personal bankers, they witnessed firsthand the power of our in-branch integrated approach. In fact, just last month, I met with our newest group of financial planners. As former personal bankers, they told me they chose financial planning because they witnessed firsthand while they were working in the branches, the power of our integrated approach. In fact, planners hired in the last 3 years are driving more than 75% of our net asset growth in that business. They're building their client book of business quickly at a lower cost and with greater certainty.
Their success demonstrates our strategy is winning. And as importantly, it's attracting new investment professionals to TD from our competitors. While our advisers excel at deepening relationships, direct investing is the acquisition engine within wealth. And through the medium term, our intention is to grow our client base by 40% over 1 million accounts. Let's talk about how. Three years ago, we introduced Easy Trade, surrounded it with our best-in-class learning platform and more recently, augmented it with our real-time partial share capability. Our growth of new investors is directly tied to each one of these innovations. Our opportunity now is to reimagine that offering. And I'm excited to say we'll be launching a new app early next year.
We've been working with our high net worth -- sorry, our next-gen clients, leveraging our strengths in building the new mobile trading experience they now demand. These investors include second and third-generation TD Wealth clients who are just beginning their digital investing journey. This is the generation that will inherit the $1.2 trillion in assets I was referring to. They're the real disruptive force reshaping our industry. And we're reinventing our model with a marriage of unique digital experiences and human advice grounded in a deep personal understanding of these clients in a way that no one else can.
Most of these clients will evolve into either long-term investors or active traders. And for the active traders, our new platform is resonating and our users are growing. We anticipate usage will increase by 45% and will be instrumental in strengthening our #1 market share. Now let's talk about a business I've admired for a long time, TD Asset Management, the #1 institutional asset manager in Canada with over $270 billion in AUM, that when combined with our retail portfolio represents more than $0.5 trillion, $0.5 trillion in Canadian client assets. While we largely grew this business organically, and I'm really proud to say we did, this is a space where we've made strategic acquisitions grounded in capability enhancement.
Greystone is a terrific example of this. The acquisition provided us immediate leadership position in private market alternatives in Canada. This capability, combined with our track record of investment excellence has deepened our Canadian leadership position and is now unlocking opportunities globally. Today, we're just going to talk about a couple of opportunities. In private market alternatives, we're targeting $65 billion in AUM over the medium term. Our ability to drive our leadership position stems from 80 private market professionals, 35 years in real estate and the most robust in-house alternatives capability of any Canadian bank-owned firm. And its roots, they go right back to Greystone.
And with our history of leveraging institutional capability to drive innovative retail products, we've become the fastest-growing ETF franchise in Canada. We plan to triple ETF AUM in the medium term with a continued focus on both passive and active opportunities. Our investment excellence and acumen, combined with our distribution and brand are driving synergies right across TD Asset Management. I'm excited for what the future holds for this business and as importantly, its contribution to wealth's overall success.
To grow efficiently, we must continually simplify our business model, drive process improvement and make it easier to be a client and colleague of TD Wealth. It starts with the client experience. Our investments in digital onboarding are having a huge impact. Today, almost all our direct investing accounts can be opened online same day with no human intervention, making it easier for our clients to make that all important first trade. We now have the capability and are aiming to open 80% of our accounts digitally. We've also reduced the need for our clients to visit a branch to perform administrative tasks by over 99% just in the last quarter. This means that branch visits are now at the client's option where the opportunity to provide deeper advice and human interaction will always be the differentiator at TD.
In a digital era, our clients expect immediacy and we're delivering. In a moment, I'll also share the impact this is having on our efficiency. At the same time, we're investing in our advisers to enhance capacity and free up time to drive new business. Investments in process improvement, digital and generative AI capabilities will reduce the time it takes to complete a plan by 50% next year. This, along with investments in data modernization and workflow integration will improve adviser capacity by 25% over the medium term. Next year, we'll leverage AI to streamline client annual reviews, freeing up 3x per adviser per month. Capacity, they will reinvest into business development, including leads from our retail partners.
Capacity here is a force multiplier. And why do I say that? When you combine 1,200 new advisers, 25% new capacity in that team with the richness of the referrals we're receiving from Canadian banking, it's a recipe for outsized growth. Speed and ease are often measured in singles and doubles. But every so often, every once in a while, you get that opportunity to hit a home run to knock it out of the park, to reinvent your business model and reshape the industry. Combining our discretionary businesses and private wealth management is just that. While we could have continued to operate our investment counsel and our investment advisory businesses separately, they're both doing incredibly well. We've reimagined their potential and are combining them into one business.
Today, as 2 businesses, they compete for investment dollars and referrals inside the house. Tomorrow as 1 business, they'll only compete with the [ Street ]. This first-of-its-kind move in Canada positions us for outsized growth, as importantly, drives $40 million in efficiency and is a best of approach, benefiting our clients day 1. This new combined operating model will attract seasoned professionals and their portfolios to TD as we move towards those 1,200 advisers. Look, this was and is incredibly complicated work, but the investment translates into real value to our clients, our colleagues and the firm. Best of all, subject to regulatory approval, we'll be up and down in a matter of months and in market early in 2026.
As you can see, disciplined execution isn't just how we operate, it's how we win. Refining our business models, leveraging AI and our focus on process improvement will continue to drive our efficiency ratio. Over the medium term, work already underway will capture $75 million of annual savings. First, savings will come from structural simplicity, productivity initiatives and vendor optimization. All of that work completed this quarter. Second, savings from digitization of the onboarding experience will be fully realized next year. And finally, in our back office, where additional investments in process improvement and AI will reduce complexity, drive straight-through processing and deliver additional savings over the medium term.
Before I close, I really want to bring this point home. Our industry-leading efficiency ratio matters. Building on it, it's critical. It's our source of funding to invest in our business and platforms. And as you can see, we'll continue to balance efficiency with investment for the future. It's also our means to grow through volatility, and it drives our industry-leading ROE. Relative to our peers, we're in an exceptional place. In fact, our lead over the next closest competitor remains considerable. Our profitable and efficient organic growth has been supported by 2 mature businesses at scale, direct investing and TD Asset Management. Now scaling our advice model will augment this performance over the medium term and drive the best return on the street.
Let me close where I started. We have a pipeline like no other, 12.5 million clients right across the bank that will fuel our growth over the medium term and beyond. The expansion of our adviser base by over 45%, together with our virtual scaled models now unlocks this full potential. And when combined with our innovations in direct investing, will accelerate our acquisition of new clients and cement the relationships we have today. We're targeting revenue and asset growth in the high single digits through the medium term. And our proven track record of driving efficiency will strengthen that industry-leading ROE. The opportunity in front of us is not only significant, it's uniquely ours. Thank you.
[Presentation]
Well, thank you, and good afternoon. My name is James Russell, and I have the pleasure of sharing our TD Insurance strategy with all of you here today. Insurance has always been part of every Canadian's life. You can't own a vehicle, finance a home or run a business without insurance. We have a rich history. Over the past 75 years, TD Insurance has earned our place in the Canadian market. We're the largest direct-to-consumer home and auto insurer and one of the top 3 personal home and auto insurance groups in the country. We have an impressive business with strong fundamentals and significant runway for growth.
Today, I'm going to highlight how we have built the most successful direct insurance business in Canada with a scalable digital-first model, how we'll leverage new technologies, including artificial intelligence to reshape how we operate, interact with our clients and manage risk and how we will accelerate our growth to become the second largest personal lines insurer in Canada. Over our 75-year history, TD Insurance has always had a strong record as a disruptor within the industry. Disruption is in our DNA. Throughout our journey, we have reinvented ourselves time and time again from being a pioneer in recognizing the transformative potential of digital to building a leading end-to-end turnkey auto claims center network, while establishing AI and analytics centers of excellence across the organization.
Fast forward to today, we now have a strong portfolio of products that provide protection and peace of mind for more than 4 million Canadians and their families. We're the #1 brand in home and auto insurance and lead across multiple categories, including the highly profitable direct-to-consumer channel and affinity market segments. We've stood by Canadians during their moments of need. And in turn, we've earned consistent organic and profitable growth. This is the significant franchise value that TD Insurance provides. Since joining TD 3 decades ago, insurance has grown substantially, proving that good things come from combining the most trusted brand in Canada with a leading direct-to-consumer organization.
You heard earlier today about our leadership in primacy and retail banking. Well, at TD Insurance, of our 4 million clients, 75% are also TD Bank clients. That bears repeating. 75% of TD Insurance clients are also TD Bank clients, an incredible opportunity that is ours to own. Our diversified portfolio includes both life and health and general insurance products, allowing us to meet our clients' insurance needs, generate strong returns and consistently return capital to the bank. Life and Health is primarily geared towards providing TD clients with products that are authorized by the Bank Act. While working closely with Sona and the Canadian Personal Banking team, we protect clients' financial security and deepen overall relationships.
And because we distribute at scale through TD's channels, we can operate at substantially lower costs than other life and health insurers. And our General Insurance business provides coverage that enhances the financial security of both bank and nonbank clients. At the core of General Insurance are the relationships we have with more than 750 alumni professional and employer groups, what we call the affinity market. Our affinity network broadens the reach of TD and TD Insurance to over 10 million group members throughout Canada. These clients also tend to be more profitable. Many of these households are mass affluent and potentially also own a business. We also have a unique direct-to-consumer private client advice group that provides white glove services to high net worth clients.
In a short period of time, we've grown to become the second largest high net worth insurance provider in the market. And as General Insurance makes up more than 85% of the TD Insurance businesses and is a powerful growth engine, I'll focus on this area of the business for the remainder of our time. We have a scaled direct business model with distinct advantages that our peers simply cannot replicate. First, operating under TD, the most valuable brand in Canada, makes our marketing more efficient and effective. Second, I mentioned that affinity clients are more profitable, have more assets to insure and generate higher premiums. Third, we have a direct relationship with our clients.
While most insurers outsource distribution and client servicing to brokers, we own the end-to-end client relationship, generating proprietary data and unparalleled insights into client shopping, servicing and claims behavior. And finally, our direct model has inherently lower distribution costs, almost as much as 10 points against our key competitors. These advantages fuel what we call our growth flywheel. Better distribution margins allow investments into new capabilities such as digital, lowering distribution cost per unit and enabling more competitive pricing. Better pricing means more growth, which generates more data. Just think about it. Today, we have 10 million client interactions each year. Those millions of interactions enable smarter targeting and risk selection. And the more we grow, the better we become at generating new data and insights, scaling faster and responding to trends. All of this together helps drive our business and our powerful flywheel. Our peers recognize these advantages, but they can't replicate them.
I've taken you through our history as a disruptor, our unique suite of products and our competitive advantages. Now it's all about our growth story. The strategic review reaffirmed that we are well positioned to support the bank's objectives. Our goal is to double our general insurance premiums to more than $13 billion over the medium term. So how are we going to get there? We have strong strategic levers in place to accomplish this. First, we excel at client acquisition and deepening relationships through targeted marketing and making it easier for clients to do business with us. Second, we are well positioned to unlock the potential of AI and drive the next transformation of the business end-to-end from providing highly intuitive experiences to making interactions and decisions seamless and easy.
And third, we continue to excel in the fundamentals through disciplined execution and sophisticated pricing capabilities that strengthen profitability and market competitiveness. Let me emphasize that the growth we will deliver will be profitable because while we build for the future, we will maintain focus on analytics, risk selection and catastrophe risk management. Through this focus and by containing expense growth, we'll ensure that we deliver industry-leading performance. Our medium-term objectives are to drive rapid growth and scale the business while managing expenses by leveraging AI to rewire our organization as well as strengthen risk selection and profitability to protect margins.
Our focus on profitable growth will result in an ROE of 28% even as we self-fund investments. So let's talk about how we'll do it. Ray spoke earlier about accelerating growth through deeper relationships. Let me bring this to life within TD Insurance. The strategic imperative of TD Insurance is to provide the bank with the ability to deepen fee income with a goal to double the General Insurance business and reach #2 in market share, driving growth in the high teens over the medium term. We want to be the first stop for every Canadian who is shopping for home and auto insurance, and we're heading in the right direction. In fact, we expect to generate more than 4 million quotes this coming year. This illustrates our commitment to sustainable growth, driving more quotes into our systems to acquire clients efficiently.
By partnering with experts like Google, we refine our targeting and power our AI with proprietary data to pinpoint the most profitable client segments. Leveraging advanced analytics, we continually improve our marketing ROI even as we expand advertising efforts. So what has this approach gained us? In the last 5 years, we've doubled the number of home and auto quotes while doubling our marketing ROI. And as you can see on the right-hand side of this slide, over the past 5 years, TD Insurance premiums have grown at a CAGR of 10%, 5 points higher than our top peers.
Over the past few years, we further strengthened our direct model advantage by transforming our technology stack end-to-end. We invested early and consistently in digital distribution, lowering acquisition costs, personalizing client experiences and maintaining direct relationships across the policy life cycle. At Investor Day in 2023, we shared that we are generating about $300 million in new policy premiums from the digital channel. We've now doubled this to $600 million over the past 2 years, and expect to end the year with $800 million of web-driven new policy premiums. And in a few years, we're aiming for that number to grow to $2 billion. We also built a world-class integrated operational backbone from digital quoting tools and extensive self-serve capabilities to a scalable policy administration system and advanced claims platform.
This foundation has enabled rapid modernization and continuous improvements to the quality of service and our cost efficiency. And the result, our mobile app has been recognized by both Apple and Google as the #1 app for home and auto insurance in Canada. As the bank focuses on becoming simpler and faster, TD Insurance will do the same. At the beginning of this presentation, I said disruption is in our DNA. That inherent drive to disrupt, coupled with advancements in artificial intelligence means that TD Insurance is poised to harness its full potential today and into the future.
Today, we have succeeded in combining the advantages of our direct model with a modern digital-first platform. And to evolve our cost structure and strengthen economies of scale, we built up client self-serve capabilities, deflecting phone channel costs. And we will continue to reinvent our model, building AI on top of our digital-first business. In fact, we've already started. We've beta launched a Gen AI chatbot, which will provide quick and easy support to our clients. We also rolled out AI productivity tools for our colleagues. Our skilled teams won't have to spend time managing processes, but instead we'll focus on complex case management and client interaction.
And through AI, we'll reimagine our entire organization while enabling a human-first digital always approach at scale, starting with our claims practice. Imagine fully automated end-to-end claims with AI guidance and coverage determination, all settled in minutes. This is what we call touchless claims. Let me show you what our vision for the future of claims looks like for our clients.
[Presentation]
As you saw from that video, touchless claims are the future for insurance. When the unthinkable happens, that is when clients need us the most. And we will continue to deliver on our promise to be there for them in those difficult times. But along with our commitment to our clients, there's the reality that almost $0.70 of every dollar that we collect is paid out in claims and related expenses. This is the biggest item in our P&L. Claims management is an area where we know we can excel by leveraging new and innovative technologies. In the specific example on this slide, we would reduce handoffs, increase consistency across files and improve overall client satisfaction. Agentic AI will make touches claims a reality and help settle auto claims in 15 minutes or less. The key is not to simply make existing processes better with AI, but to reimagine them from the ground up.
By the end of this journey, we aim to be Canada's leading insurer in claims management and consistently impress our clients at the key moment of truth. The only way we can deliver on this strategy is through disciplined execution. It underpins everything that we do. I've mentioned this a few times, but it's an important point to reinforce. Analytics and risk selection are the foundation of any successful insurance company. And with over 75 years in the business, we know how to do this extremely well. But analytics today go far beyond underwriting. They drive acquisition and targeting, enable next best action recommendations to boost client loyalty, predict emerging claims trends and trigger proactive preventative measures. That's why, as you can see on this slide, we've made significant investments in analytics, where we aim to generate more than $200 million in AI-driven benefits over the medium term.
This investment is central to sustaining our performance, and we have the benefit of having in-house AI and analytics experts and a world-class team in Layer 6. One example of this is our usage-based insurance app, TD My Insurance. We've collected billions of driving data points, offering discounts to good drivers while also predicting broader trends. During the pandemic, we collected client movement to Apple's -- or we compared client movement to Apple's open source mobility data to guide pricing decisions. Since premium growth affects profitability, analytics are vital. And we continue to refine our modeling to drive disciplined growth and lasting profitability.
And of course, we can't talk about profitability without talking about how we'll manage catastrophic risk. Natural disasters can be devastating to Canadians, their families and entire communities. Protecting our clients in their moments of need is a responsibility that we take very seriously. 2024 was the worst year for catastrophic loss in Canadian history with industry-wide insured damages from severe weather events surpassing $8.8 billion. To address this, over the past 12 months, we've made hundreds of changes to our pricing and product design while strengthening reinsurance coverage. Earlier this year, in collaboration with TD Securities, we made history as the first insurer in Canada to issue a Canadian dollar-denominated cat bond to further diversify our sources of protection.
Our disciplined approach keeps us resilient, ready to handle major volatility, address climate change risk and drive growth in our General Insurance business. And we continue to support and protect our clients by providing them with proactive prevention advice. For example, we send weather alerts directly to clients through our My Insurance app, and we offer complementary services for wildfire protection. Today's consumers expect digital-first, on-demand and highly personalized experiences. This is where our cost-effective digital direct model sets us apart from the market. It's built for the modern consumer and the modern economy.
By continuing to shift variable expenses to fixed, deepening automation and shifting the majority of transactions to digital, we'll avoid more than $200 million in run rate costs over the medium term. This is our key to deliver ambitious and profitable growth. I'll end by saying this, we built this insurance -- this business to win in the market, and we are winning. Our strategy is focused. We're well positioned to continue our role as a disruptor, delivering fee income growth for TD. We're a trusted brand. We have a scalable direct model, modern infrastructure and millions of client relationships that we intend to deepen. We're executing with discipline, and we're doing it while remaining laser-focused on risk management. This is what makes TD Insurance unique. We have a rich history steeped in innovation and disruption. And I look forward to sharing more with you in the years ahead as we continue to excel and drive value for TD. Thank you.
[Presentation]
Thank you very much, and good afternoon, everyone.
I'm Tim Wiggan, President and CEO of TD Securities and Group Head of Wholesale Banking. As someone who spent their entire career in capital markets and 25 years at TD, I feel particularly privileged to share our story with you today. As you've heard from Ray and my peers, there is real change happening across the bank, and TD Securities is a critical part of this change. Our time is now. We have a generational opportunity in front of us. The TD Securities strategy is all about building on the successful TD Cowen acquisition and continuing our journey to become a top 10 North American investment bank with global reach and the results speak for themselves.
Let me start by sharing a snapshot of where we are today. TD Securities is a fast-growing client-centric investment bank with global exposure. With over 10,000 clients, we have a presence in 15 countries with 32 offices around the world. Across both corporate and Investment Banking and Global Markets, we hold leading positions in Canada across our core products. In fact, just last Friday, TD won Canada's Best FX Bank in the Euromoney Foreign Exchange Awards for 2025, a notable achievement. In the U.S., we are building on the strong presence we've established, and we are now achieving top 10 rankings in several of our strategic growth areas. We have a leading research and strategy team with over 100 analysts covering over 65% of the S&P 500 and over 1,300 stocks, ranking us sixth in North America for total stocks under coverage.
Our Washington research and strategy teams offer unique and proprietary macro perspectives, and we occupy top spots in industry rankings, both for research and corporate access in the U.S. and Canada. We generated $7.3 billion in revenue in fiscal '24. And year-to-date, we have generated 3 consecutive quarters of $2 billion in revenue. In short, we are seeing terrific momentum. Now let's take a step back and talk about how we got here. The TD Cowen integration by all measures has been incredibly successful. It's been a little over 2 years since we joined forces, and we are fully harnessing the power of our talent, product depth and geographic mix to serve our clients.
On a personal note, as someone who joined TD through an acquisition, TD Securities has a proven track record of integrating firms while maintaining the core entrepreneurial spirit that made them successful in the first place. As this slide shows, our business mix is more diversified and balanced from a product perspective. And as you can see in the right-hand graph, we have further -- we have gained further exposure in the U.S. market, the largest global fee pool, 20x the size of Canada's. The U.S. market now makes up nearly half of our revenue. Digging deeper, we are unlocking the power of our franchise. We have a client base encompassing the top fee pairs across our businesses. And now it's about deepening those relationships and delivering the whole firm. This is how we will continue to win. The momentum is tangible.
Let me highlight 2 examples on this slide. On convertibles, we are #6 in league tables in the U.S., and we were the sole bookrunner on a $2.25 billion convertible bond deal. This was the largest sole-led deal in the U.S. since 2016. And our leadership extends to global markets, where TD held the #1 spot in Q2 market share for both high-touch and low-touch Canadian equity trading. As a result, we are seeing a step change in our quarterly revenue. In fact, our quarterly average revenue in fiscal '25 is $2 billion or almost 2x higher than fiscal '22, which was the last full year prior to the Cowen acquisition.
It is important to note, we have achieved this growth and momentum while maintaining our disciplined risk culture on both credit and market risk. This is core to how we are consistently there for our clients through volatility and uncertainty. Our risk discipline will not change as we execute on our growth strategy. Our corporate loan book is diversified across industries and backed by consistent underwriting discipline. We will also continue to manage our market risk carefully as we intend to grow our trading revenues significantly higher than our value at risk.
As we grow, our clients are trusting us with larger and more complex transactions, and we will execute on these without shifting our risk appetite. As I said off the top, we have a generational opportunity in front of us. The strategic review was a terrific exercise that has sharpened our focus on where we need to be investing. It also reinforced our strategies to drive growth by deepening relationships with our clients, investing in our capabilities and modernizing our platforms as we scale. And we will continue to do this with a focus on improving frontline productivity, efficiency and optimizing capital.
As you can see from this slide, we have historically operated a highly profitable wholesale bank with a low 60s efficiency ratio and a 14% ROE. This is in our DNA. We aim to return to these levels as we grow -- as the top line growth accelerates, expenses normalize and our actions to optimize capital and balance sheet materialize. We are in the investment stage of our J-curve, building out capabilities for future growth. As we scale and drive operating leverage, we will restore our ROE to historic levels. We aim to deliver on our medium-term targets, including high single-digit revenue growth and efficiency ratio in the low 60s and a 13% ROE.
With our strategy, disciplined execution and a clear commitment to our clients, I am confident in our ability to deliver accelerated growth and enhanced returns for investors. And why am I so confident in our plan? It's about how we execute. As Ray has outlined, TD is focused on 3 enterprise themes. The first area of focus is deepening relationships. We see an opportunity to add $3 billion in revenue over the medium term by deepening client relationships. Let me walk you through a few examples in Corporate and Investment Banking and Global Markets that will illustrate how we're capturing aspects of this broader revenue opportunity.
In Corporate and Investment Banking, we have a formidable client franchise and top talent. We have scale across M&A, capital markets, lending and global transaction banking. What has this resulted in? In 2024 alone, Corporate and Investment Banking generated $3.1 billion in revenue, with more than half coming from the U.S. This is a significant shift in our geographic footprint. While we will continue to grow our client base, we have a large opportunity ahead of us simply by going deeper with the clients we already serve. And our client connectivity is strong. We generate fees with 80% of Canada's top 100 fee payers and 70% of the top 100 fee payers in the U.S. And while we are on par with our peers from a client connectivity perspective, our share of wallet lags, and this is our opportunity.
We are showing momentum and are in the right sectors and industries. We're already a top 10 player in key sectors like biotech and real estate, and we're on the verge of breaking into the top 10 in other sectors as well. Take the financial institutions group, for example. We've quickly climbed the rankings as we've added proven talent and deep expertise, and we see a clear runway to breaking into the top 10 in one of the largest fee pools in the market. What we are now working towards is deepening those relationships and winning transactions across the breadth of our products. By aligning our balance sheet and talent to priority sectors, we see up to a $1 billion in incremental annual opportunity from investment banking fees with existing clients alone.
So how will we further capitalize on this opportunity? As Ray mentioned earlier, Global Transaction Banking is a clear example of how we are simplifying the bank and going deeper with clients. We are building a world-class transaction bank for our commercial and corporate clients and investing in next-generation capabilities such as real-time payments and automated clearing. With a unified product road map and centralized investment, we are efficiently building our capabilities and driving meaningful value for TD and TD Securities. We see the opportunity to scale this business, increase deposits and secure a cost-efficient source of funding for all of TD, driving growth in overall transaction banking revenue.
In TD Securities over the medium term, we expect to double our product penetration with our clients from 20% to 40%. Pivoting to Global Markets, we have broad trading capabilities and deep client relationships across our geographies. A key catalyst for this geographic expansion was hearing from our Canadian clients that they wanted greater access to the U.S. market. Our expanded U.S. presence means we can now serve our clients cross-border. As you can see on this slide, we also have an enhanced and diversified product mix. This breadth and scale is critical to meeting the needs of our most sophisticated clients.
In 2024, Global Markets generated $4.2 billion in revenue, with approximately half coming from the U.S., again, underscoring our scale in the world's largest fee pool. The foundation is built. Our active clients encompass 90% of the global fee pool. In fixed income, we are starting from a position of strength. We are #1 in Canadian investment-grade credit, #1 in Canadian provincial bonds with more than 5,000 active trading relationships. Accelerating fixed income growth will come from enhancing our product suite, deepening our share of wallet in underpenetrated core products and growing the mortgage-backed securities platform. This is a $750 million annual revenue opportunity for us.
Switching now to an area in which TD Securities has led with distinction, I'd like to highlight our e-trading platform, TD Securities Automated Trading. Today, TD SAT is the #1 trader in the U.S. municipal bond market and one of the largest participants in the investment-grade credit market. We are extending this innovation and cutting-edge technology into other asset classes, including ETFs and high-yield credit. This business has grown 35% since fiscal '22 while delivering impressive frontline productivity and efficiency. This platform is a critical part of our value proposition and is one of the fastest-growing areas of our capital markets business.
TD SAT is just one part of our leadership in e-trading. We are also a market leader in FX and equities, underscoring our commitment to innovation. In Global Markets, we will accelerate growth and deepen client relationships through scaling prime services. This is a true relationship business that extends beyond leverage and securities lending and creates a halo effect that drives trading revenues across equities, FICC and global markets more broadly. We know that a strong prime offering drives deeper client relationships. We have a 25-year history of prime brokerage in Canada. We are now expanding our U.S. offering, in particular, with synthetic and arranged financing.
Our clients have told us that they want to diversify their prime providers and our robust balance sheet positions us well for this opportunity. Our expansion plans are solidly underway, and we see a $500 million annual revenue opportunity in U.S. prime. The second area of focus is about simplifying how we operate to move faster. Strengthening the investment banking culture at TD Securities means having the right subject matter experts in our front office and control functions working together with speed to deliver for our clients. Within TD Securities, initiatives are already underway to become simpler and faster by increasing the metabolic rate of our organization to respond to our clients' needs.
To facilitate the execution of our strategy, we've recently streamlined leadership structures across corporate and Investment Banking and Global Markets. We've also enhanced frontline risk, compliance and legal subject matter expertise to enable faster decision-making. And finally, we've moved to an agile product-led delivery model to build smarter tools that streamline workflows and improve the client experience. All of these actions on the slide were designed to accelerate revenue growth, reduce complexity and drive faster client outcomes. The hard work, dedication and focus of our teams is evident in our results and how we deliver for our clients.
Our platforms and technologies are also critical to delivering for our clients. To this end, we are leveraging technology and AI to augment and simplify the client experience and increase our productivity and efficiency while protecting the bank. We recently launched our TD Securities AI virtual assistant to enable our front office sales, trading and research colleagues with smarter, faster ways to deliver market insights to our clients in 1/10 of the time. With over 300,000 pages of research published last year alone, the TD Securities AI virtual assistant allows us to harness our considerable intellectual capital to deliver value for our clients. And as our colleagues have put it to me, they feel like they have our research analysts on call 24/7.
This investment in AI and automation reflects a meaningful step forward towards the future of how we work, a combination of our deep bench of intellectual expertise and powerful technology working in tandem. Simply put, we have made and will continue to make investments in our platforms as we grow the business. This takes us to our third area of focus, disciplined execution, which is critical to achieving our goals. We are strengthening our governance and control functions to set us up for long-term success. We are more than halfway through a foundational investment in a multiyear initiative to improve regulatory responsiveness, increase automation, simplify processes and better manage risk.
These are part of our efforts to enhance the risk and control frameworks and modernize our core business processes as we scale. Expense discipline is also critical during a period of substantial investment. To deliver on our profitability goals, we are focused on targeted expense discipline initiatives that will flow through by fiscal '29.
This should look familiar as it was consistent with what Ray and Kelvin outlined earlier, scaling AI and automation to reduce costs, modernizing our tech platform and simplifying processes, optimizing our vendor and workforce strategies as well as improving frontline productivity and moderating expense growth from reduced discrete investments as we move into the flatter part of the J curve. We anticipate these initiatives will deliver approximately $500 million to $600 million in savings over the medium term and help us achieve our efficiency target in the low 60s.
In terms of pacing of these savings, our path will look very similar to TD overall as the business scales and the bank executes on enterprise-wide initiatives. We see expense growth in line to slightly above the bank excluding variable expenses and other expenses that are commensurate with revenues for fiscal '26. Then we will accelerate efficiency from there in fiscal '27 and '28.
As we look to deepen our client relationships, deploying our capital in a disciplined manner will be critically important. Approximately 40% of our capital comes from our corporate loan book, where we have undergone a rigorous exercise to identify core profitable relationships where we can deepen share of wallet. We see an $800 million revenue upside from meeting client level ROE hurdles and reallocating resources towards more accretive relationships. Tying all this together, we are confident in our ability to accelerate growth and enhance returns for our investors.
Looking at this slide, we are showing the ROE bridge from 9% in fiscal '24 to our medium-term target of 13%. The biggest driver of this movement -- improvement should come from profitable growth in Global Markets and Corporate Investment Banking that I just walked you through. The growth will be further enhanced by cost efficiencies and higher front-office productivity, which together brings our efficiency ratio down from the low 70s you see today to our medium-term target in the low 60s.
What I want to underscore is this. This isn't just an aspiration. We are already delivering the growth. We have the demonstrated track record and disciplined focus required to drive this level of profitability again, and I am confident we will deliver. In closing, we have a generational opportunity in front of us. The integration has been a success. Our platform is delivering. We have the right client base. We have leading products and platforms. And we also have top talent. We are growing key businesses and equipping our bankers with a full product suite to capture more client opportunities. At the same time, we are building a culture defined by discipline, speed and an unwavering client focus, all of which are required to compete and win as a top-tier investment bank. And I could say with confidence, we are just getting started. Our time is now. Thank you.
Thank you, Paul, James and Tim. It's now time for our second Q&A session. Once again, for those in the room who would like to ask a question, please raise your hand and we'll bring you a mic. And please remember to introduce yourself.
[Operator Instructions]
I'd now like to invite Ray, Kelvin, Paul, James and Tim to join me on stage. [indiscernible] come on.
Yes, I must have been a buy-rated analyst or something. But it's good to see all of you. For Tim, historically, your business has done nearly 14% to 15% ROE. And from a mix perspective, it would seem your business now leans more towards high return and high-margin businesses. Can you maybe talk about what structurally has changed that prevent you from getting to back to that level?
Yes. Thanks very much for the question. I would say as it relates to ROE, obviously, a few things factor in the equation. The first off is just the breadth of products that we have. And so hopefully, from the presentation, you got a sense for the amount of investment that's happened both on the Corporate and Investment Banking front as well as the Global Markets front.
The second point is our focus on the U.S. So the U.S. is about 70% of global capitalization and about 20x the size of the Canadian market. So what we are essentially seeing today is that the clients that we have historically had that was augmented through the acquisition of TD Cowen have a much broader suite of products that they can interact with us on. I would also say, historically, we have benefited from financial strength. And so we've had a strong credit rating, loan book and balance sheet. And so it's really around better utilizing those financial resources.
Maybe just add two things. One is -- I think it's a great question that the medium-term target for the Investment Bank considering that not a destination but a journey, right? This is part of the journey as we get to the 2029, the destination continues. And so I think it's a good call out. But we are, as we've said, investing and then as you'll see the investments play through and then the growth starts to move through. So think of that more of a journey perspective.
The other piece is that from a portfolio perspective, when I look at it across all of our businesses that you heard about from this morning, I love the portfolio of businesses that we have at TD. And not every one of those businesses has to return 16% for the enterprise ROE of 16%, they all need to be accretive, though, as we move forward, and that's what you're hearing from each one of them. And as they continue their journey, it's the enterprise ROE of 16%, but my expectation is not that every business in the medium term will need to get there, but every business will be accretive and add to it. I hope that helps.
Sohrab?
Sohrab Movahedi, BMO Capital Markets. Just staying with Tim for a second. Tim, if you succeed on your plan and understanding that it's a diversified business. What percentage of the total bank will you be in the medium term?
So we're currently 8% to 10% of the bank's net income after tax. I would submit to you that our peers would be more like 15% to 20%. So I think we would see our way through to being roughly double where we are from a bottom line perspective.
So you hope -- just to clarify, you hope to grow faster than the rest of the bank with a lower ROE?
Yes, we do.
Okay. The second thing, just to clarify, while we have Kelvin. Kelvin, I know earlier in the first Q&A session, I think you clarified that CET1 for 2026. I just wanted to be crystal clear you are targeting a -- or you're expecting, I shouldn't say targeting, you're anticipating a 13% ROE in 2026 on a 13%, is the math on a 13% CET1? Or are those two numbers completely unrelated to each other?
Yes. I would say they are unrelated to each other, the 13% ROE would be based on a higher CET1 than 13%.
We'll take one from the virtual audience since we didn't get a chance to on the first Q&A. You've emphasized accelerating growth in high fee businesses such as wealth, insurance and global transaction banking. What do you see as the biggest barrier to capturing this growth between talent, technology or competition? And how is TD positioning itself to overcome it?
So good question, and maybe I'll start and then I can pass it over to any of my colleagues. When -- for sure, the focus for us is to accelerate fee income businesses, and that will provide us better balance from a revenue perspective. But when you think about what's the barrier? I would tell you that historically would have just been prioritization in our organization, right? That are you going to put the resources that's required to get to the growth and the outsized opportunities. And that's what you're hearing consistently as we go forward, that as an organization we have a singular focus around the enterprise, I would tell you, on deepening relationships, speed and simplification. And that's where you should expect to see the bulk of our investments as a company go towards.
And you're seeing that. Historically, you might not have seen the outsized investments in the resources to grow our Wealth Management business or the Insurance business, the Commercial Banking business, but you're seeing the investments that we're going to make on our frontline distribution, but that's a prioritization, and that's a trade-off, right?
And the other piece of it is to make sure that we deliver on the structural cost reductions that we shared with you today. That's important as we move forward because parts of that structural reduction will be also to fund some of the growth initiatives that we're talking about. The majority of it will fall to the bottom line, but there's still portions of that, that will actually be required to fund the investments.
So I would tell you I'd answer it that way, right? Prioritization of our investments and then making sure that we deliver the structural cost reductions with the discipline that we've laid out to continue the investments as we grow.
And the only thing I'd add is it's interesting -- I actually think the barriers are opportunities. When you look at technology, specifically inside of wealth management, having direct investing gives us an incubator for innovation. But maybe I'll just bring it to life in a very clear way. Just before COVID, we brought digital onboarding to direct investing. It made a huge difference for that business, and you hear -- heard me talk about it today. But more importantly, that same platform and capability has now been delivered to our advice businesses.
And so I think when you have a platform like direct investing, that is such a leader in the space, to be able to leverage that right across wealth is a huge advantage. So I see technology as something when you combine with what Ray talked about from a Layer 6 perspective is a real advantage.
And then on the people front, half of our growth in advice has come from Sona and [ Barb's ] teams. And I talked about that today. And I don't anticipate that's going to change in the near term. But when you combine people from the outside who bring new thinking and new thought processes with a team that is ready to perform because they know the branch network so well. I actually think our people are an advantage right now.
The one thing that I'm most interested in watching over the next couple of years is, as technology and our teams work closer together, specifically on AI, I'm actually -- I see them both as force multipliers for our business, not something that's actually a barrier to our success.
And maybe just to add to what Paul mentioned for insurance. I mean I think everything that you mentioned there are also critical factors for how we're going to grow the business. If we think about it being a direct-to-consumer insurer, it's critical that we manage our expenses. Customers expect to get value for what they purchase. And the way we're going to do it is through digital leadership, and we're showing that. So -- and underpinning that, of course, is the talent that we have. I talked a lot about the AI talent. We have over 300 people in the Insurance business alone, actuaries, analysts that actually drive insights.
And so we've been very successful at this, and I think we're well positioned to grow in this space. And you talked a bit about competition and that's how we can distance ourselves from the competition because there is a war for talent. But the great news is that we have all the people in place right now.
And maybe I'll just jump in on transaction banking. The reality is that we have transaction banking today for our corporate and commercial clients. So within TD Securities, we have a large client base, roughly 2,000 clients, and it's been growing steadily. So it's really around, again, the theme of deepening. We're able today to take deposits, both in the U.S. and Canada. But from a cash management perspective, we're limited to Canada alone. And so we see the opportunity really to deepen existing relationships rather than starting from scratch.
Okay. We have a question in the back from Mike.
Mike Rizvanovic, Scotiabank. I'll start with James. I wanted to ask you about the 28% ROE target for insurance. Life insurance is not even in that ballpark, P&C insurance is certainly not even in that ballpark. And so I'm -- just correct me if I'm thinking about this correctly, but is it really the massive returns that you can generate on things like credit protection and other forms of insurance that really drive that ROE?
Well, first of all, thank you so much for that question. I'd say it's the -- first of all, it's the consolidated returns that we have across the entire Insurance segment, which does include everything that you've mentioned. Our legal entities that do P&C insurance, our distribution entities, our Life and Health business and our reinsurance entities.
One thing I would say is that we have been highly capital efficient in the way that we manage our capital because we do both life and health and P&C insurance. The expense advantages I talked about lead us to have higher ROEs in the General Insurance business as well. And in fact, the year-to-date return on insurance this year is 26%. So -- and over the last 5 years, we've had a 28% average ROE within the Insurance business.
So it's historic. And really, what we're looking to do is grow the business and keep the same level of returns as we go forward.
Okay. And then maybe a quick one for Tim. You've laid out a pretty clear plan on how you're looking to grow your business, is M&A in your thought process? I'm wondering if with all these new added capabilities, is there anything that's maybe missing? Or would you look at M&A optionality in terms of maybe building it out a bit more?
Yes. So I would say a few things as it relates to M&A. We've obviously made a substantial investment in our platform. As I laid out in my presentation, we're a little over 2 years closing on the TD Cowen acquisition. So that is very much our focus, continuing to leverage that expanded platform rather than look for corporate M&A.
What I will add though is we have been adding talent. And a great example that I would highlight would be our U.S. FICC group. So we've traditionally had a strong FICC group, mainly Canadian focused. Almost immediately after closing TD Cowen in March of '23, we were able to attract a full team of FICC franchise in the U.S., and that included investment bankers, ECM, sales, trading and research.
So we're not precluded from adding talent, but our focus now is very much on leveraging our expanded platform. And I don't believe there's any one area that we would need to go out and make an acquisition to hit the targets that we laid out here this afternoon.
The next question is from Gabe.
I'll stick with Tim. If I look at your business, the revenue to risk-weighted assets or something like that, it's not best-in-class, but it's pretty darn close. Then if I look at return to risk-weighted assets, it's pretty low. So somewhere in between revenue and earnings expenses seem to be the bigger drag on the business. Now is that -- and when I look at your plan, there's much more emphasis on top line momentum. So -- and a little less of a driver from an efficiency gains.
So what -- we just witnessed the past couple of years of you make the acquisition, then you invest a bunch of money, that heavy investment phase is kind of mostly behind you now? And business as usual top line growth with some other initiatives will get you to that mid-60s or whatever efficiency ratio?
Yes. So I would say a few things. We are very much in the investment stage of our J curve, but it is normalizing over the MTO. And so if we look at the revenue, it's obviously there. It's apparent. We've roughly doubled our top line since 2022. We do see a normalization of expenses, and I wanted to emphasize the point I made in my presentation. We are basically on the journey from the 70% efficiency ratio to the low 60s in parallel with the bank overall, going from, call it, 58% to low 50s. So I want to be absolutely clear that we see fiscal '25 as the peak in our year-over-year expense growth and normalization from there.
In terms of numbers, we are still continuing to invest, that is what I've been charged to do by Ray and the team. So we expect to be slightly above that single-digit year-over-year growth that you heard from Kelvin and Ray earlier. So we see expense normalization absolutely over the MTO. And then we're expecting to grow our revenue at multiples of both our value at risk and our RWA. And that's really just a maturation as we're doing more and more with that existing client base with our existing financial resources. So it's really a combination of those three factors. We were just making the point that obviously, the easiest thing to see is the revenue that we've been putting out quarterly.
I would just say also the -- if you look at the size of the savings opportunity, they're quite big for your expense base. So it's not just about growing revenue but also getting more efficient.
And the only other thing to add, Gabe, is, I mean, when we did the strategic review for the Investment Bank, I mean, one of the conclusions that we've come to is that this is not about extending more balance sheet. This is not about extending on the risk curve. We have the client base already. We've already extended the balance sheet. What we haven't had is deepening relationships and fee income. And some of that was just pure capability.
And when we look at the Cowen acquisition, it's the number of the capabilities that we got with the Cowen acquisition that's now going to allow us to deepen and Tim referenced that in his comments that we've had Canadian clients consistently asking for some of these opportunities that we just haven't been able to fulfill.
And so that's a great revenue generator as we move forward. But this is another great example of why deepening relationships and this organic growth opportunity continues to be our biggest opportunity regardless of what business line that presented today.
So we're not looking at like for Tim's business, again some outsized period of corporate loan growth to facilitate the Investment Banking business type...
No, I would say bigger picture, if we look at the journey we have been on. We have enjoyed great client connectivity and the TD Cowen acquisition only bolstered that. And we have had -- we benefited from financial strength. So we really needed to add the products, the professionals and the capabilities in order to maximize those things. And that's really our narrative. It's doing more with our existing resources and growing at multiples of RWA and VaR.
Rob?
Rob from [ Picton ] Investments. Just a question for Paul on the medium-term objective to get to $65 billion in private AUM, what channel do you see that largely coming through? Is that you're going to increase penetration within the retail channel? And how do you -- like with this current product suite, do you think you need to add capabilities? Or with the Greystone deal, you largely have the capabilities in place. It's more just distribution?
It's a terrific question for a couple of reasons. And I'd answer it -- I'll bifurcate my answer here. The Greystone team that we inherited here was exceptional. And then not only did they give us a kick start, they took us to a place of maturity that would have taken a number of years. And so because of that, we're very confident that we both have the team to execute, but the distribution capabilities, too. And so this is like the perfect marriage of institutional distribution inside of TD Asset Management married with this tremendous skill set that we inherited with Greystone.
And so that's where principally the growth will come. But you are talking at a string that I think is worth talking about, and that is that one of the strengths in TDAM has been over the years to take the portfolio management in our Institutional business and port it over into our mutual fund and ETF business. And you saw a little bit of that on the ETF front this year. And I suspect as we move down the next couple of years, you're going to see more of it.
We got a question from our virtual audience. It's very exciting to hear how much innovation and investment into technology and AI is on TD's road map. I know there is a big push from FinTech players to jump into leveraging blockchain technology for some of the use cases around making transactions faster, secure and compliant. Does TD have such plans in its road map?
Why don't I start, great question and certainly lots of dialogue around blockchain or if you think about stablecoin, digital assets, crypto, I mean it all sort of streams together. And I would tell you is that we certainly have lots of colleagues within the organization in different businesses looking at those issues.
I'd say you've got difference between -- depending on geography. The U.S. is a little different than Canada. U.S. is probably more advanced in some of these categories, and so we're working through with various different associations in the United States. And then in Canada, I do think we're also looking for and working with regulators and with government officials on some of this new technology and innovation.
And so I do think they'll be on two different paths. But we are very, very certainly invested. We're doing a number of things within our own organization, and we'll continue to keep you updated as we develop our positions. What I would say is we are always looking closely as to what is the needs from a client perspective, right? And so if there's large demands from a client perspective, whether it be leveraging blockchain from a payment's movement perspective or stablecoins or digital assets, we always want to make sure that we're able to deliver these products and services to our client. But how do you do it in a safe, reliable way that protects our consumers and meets all the regulatory requirements. I think that's very important as we think through all of this innovation going forward.
Thanks. Any other questions from the room? [indiscernible] Well, that was another round of great questions and answers. Thank you all so much. To wrap things up, I'll pass the podium to Ray to offer a few final thoughts, and then I'll just be back with some housekeeping.
Okay. Well, thank you, everyone, and thank you for your time this afternoon. I really appreciate the great questions both in the room and through our webcast. We have covered a lot of ground today. We shared clear plans to accelerate growth, enhance the performance and create long-term value.
As I said in my opening remarks, TD is a formidable bank with distinct competitive advantages and an enormous opportunity to grow. To drive the strategy we outlined today and reclaim our leadership, we are running the bank differently. We're deepening our relationships to accelerate our growth which includes significant investments in frontline distribution, digital leadership, AI and data-driven solutions to drive stronger outcomes for our clients and for our shareholders.
We're building a more disciplined, simpler and faster bank. We're removing complexity and enabling TD colleagues to move faster. We're resetting our cost base to achieve our efficiency target and to fund our growth. Capital allocation is also changing. We're deploying capital with greater discipline across our businesses to enhance total bank ROE to 16%. We've also made a commitment to consistently return excess capital to shareholders. We've planned a $6 billion to $7 billion buyback in 2026, and expect more going forward.
And finally, as I said earlier, strengthening our winning culture is one of my most important jobs as CEO. As we execute our strategy, we will achieve our targets and deliver long-term value for you, our shareholders. That's my commitment. That's our commitment.
Let me close by thanking our colleagues. When I travel across the bank, I can feel their energy, their desire for change, their dedication to our clients. And together, we are getting back to winning. And together, we will build TD for the future. Thank you, everyone, for your time.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Dominion Bank - Analyst/Investor Day - The Toronto-Dominion Bank
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Dominion Bank - Analyst/Investor Day - The Toronto-Dominion Bank
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Strategie: TD legt einen klaren Fahrplan für organisches Wachstum vor: Kundenvertiefung ("deepening"), Digitalisierung, AI‑Einsatz und eine strukturelle Kostensenkung.
- Ziele: Fiskal 2026: adjusted ROE ~13%, EPS +6–8%, Expense‑Wachstum 3–4%, PCL 40–50 bp; Mittelfristig (2029) ROE 16% und EPS 7–10%.
- Kapital: Neues NCIB in Höhe von $6–7 Mrd. (vorbehaltlich Genehmigung); CET1‑Steuerung bleibt Priorität.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Distribution: Transformierung der Filiale zu Beratungszentren, Ziel: 50% Digital‑Verkäufe, steigende Filial‑Wealth‑Referrals.
- AI & Tech: Proprietärer AI‑Hub (Layer‑6), ~2.500 Fachkräfte, Ziel: $1 Mrd. jährlicher Wert (50% Ertrag, 50% Kosten).
- Kostensenkung: $2–2,5 Mrd. Run‑Rate‑Einsparungen; sechs Initiativen (Distribution, Prozess‑Top20, Tech/Data, Procurement, Global Delivery, Expense‑Moderation).
- Fee‑Wachstum: Fokus auf Wealth, Insurance und TD Securities; Fee‑Income soll ROE mittelfristig um ~170 bp stützen.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Buyback: Geplantes neues NCIB $6–7 Mrd. in Fiskal 2026, regulatorische Zustimmung erforderlich.
- Timing: $500 Mio. Einsparungen bereits für 2026 aus Restrukturierung; zusätzlich ~ $400 Mio. aus Distribution/AI/Global Delivery → ~ $1 Mrd. 2026.
- Operationalisierung: COO eingesetzt, konkrete AI‑Use‑Cases (Claims, Knowledge‑Mgmt, Adjudication) werden bereits skaliert.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- AML‑Remediation: AML bleibt Nr.1; Analysten haken nach Kosten, Zeitplan (Management: wesentliche Management‑Massnahmen Ende Jahr, weitere Arbeit 2026/27, ~ $500 Mio. p.a.).
- Kapital & CET1: Wie wirkt sich das NCIB auf CET1 aus? Management: Ziel ~13% langfristig; 2026 wird schrittweise gemanagt, organische Kapitalakkretion bleibt Puffer.
- Kostentransparenz: Zweifel an Realisierbarkeit der $2–2,5 Mrd.; Management verweist auf strukturelle Maßnahmen (Top‑20 Prozesse, Procurement, Tech) und bereits realisierte Einsparungen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Investor Day liefert einen konsistenten, quantifizierten Fahrplan: ehrgeizige ROE‑ und EPS‑Ziele, substanzielle Buybacks und ein großes Kostensenkungsprogramm. Die Bewertung hängt nun an der Ausführung (Kostensenkungen, AML‑Abschluss, US‑Reform). Bei Erfolg erhöht sich die Wahrscheinlichkeit deutlich besserer TSR und Dividenden/EPS‑Wachstum.
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Barclays 23rd Annual Global Financial Services Conference
1. Question Answer
Good morning, and welcome back. Our next presentation is from The Toronto-Dominion Bank. Here from the company, we have Chief Risk Officer, Ajai Bambawale. Welcome, Ajai.
Thank you.
I want to start off. As Chief Risk Officer, maybe tell me what's top of mind for you right now?
Thanks for the question. So with the risk environment so heightened, Brian, I mean, there's naturally more than one thing that's top of mind for me, but let me call out the top 3. The first is geopolitical risk, okay? The landscape, as you know, is turbulent, and it's characterized by things like deglobalization, trade protectionism, the ongoing conflicts, the strained relations. And the way I'm looking at it is this risk is unlikely to abate anytime soon, and it comes with macro implications. It comes with business condition and business investment implications. And what we're doing as a bank is we're thinking about the different scenarios that could play out, and we actually run those scenarios and try and build resilience internally for TD.
The second is financial crimes, and that is our #1 priority. And 2 things I'd call out there, which is why it's top of mind for me. The first is, this very considerable remediation program that's underway at the bank, both in the United States and internationally as well. But the environment for financial crimes is also fraught with risk. You read and hear and see more and more evidence of drug trafficking, human trafficking, trade-based money laundering. So financial crimes for us, it said #1 priority, but in the top 3 things for me.
And the third thing I'd call out is certain areas of nonfinancial risks like cyber and fraud. And I mentioned them on the investor call as well. With the geopolitical issues playing out, naturally cyber risk is elevated. So we got to invest more and more in cyber. And then fraud with a lot of emerging technologies, Gen AI, agentic AI, we're thinking very actively about our fraud program and how we continue to invest in our fraud program. So overall, risks are elevated and more than one thing on my mind.
Great. Can you talk to us about the current macroeconomic environment and what you are seeing?
Certainly. I'll start by saying the macro environment is quite uncertain, and it's really driven by 2 factors. One is the policy and trade issues. But the second is the geopolitical risk that I just mentioned. So what are we seeing? I think we're generally seeing resilience, particularly in the U.S. economy, we're seeing resilience. But what we're also seeing is more tempered forecast for economic growth. We've seen in Canada in this last quarter, business investments came off quite a bit. Our Q2 print was, I think, was down 10.1%. But our Chief Economist, if I just maybe spend a few minutes on what we're forecasting, we're forecasting in Canada low economic growth in the next couple of years, 1.3% for this year, 1.4% for next year. We're expecting unemployment to tick up from these levels. We are at 7%. We're expecting it to go up to 7.3%. But we do see rates coming off by 50 bps.
And then housing, housing has recalibrated and it's coming back a bit. For the U.S., again, lower economic growth, 1.7% and 1.8% '25 and '26. We do see unemployment in the U.S. ticking up a little more to 4.4%, and we do see policy rates coming off, 75 bps this calendar year and potentially another 50 bps next year. So overall, economies are resilient, but there is uncertainty about economic growth. But as a bank, we have taken that into account. And we've built quite a bit of reserves over the last 3 quarters, almost $600 million for this uncertainty. So I do feel that we're well positioned as a bank.
Great. Given the current environment, can you talk to us about TD's credit performance. In the third quarter call, you mentioned that you expect impaired PCLs to increase. You also reiterated the 45 to 55 basis point range for total PCLs for fiscal 2025. Does that mean you expect PCLs to spike in Q4? Or is this something you're seeing that other banks are not seeing? Maybe you can touch on the trajectory of PCLs into 2026.
Yes, I'm glad you're bringing that up, and I'd like to elaborate and start by saying that the credit quality across our portfolios is strong. We are not seeing any impact so far from tariffs at the borrower level. I do think it will come with a lag, and I'll come back to that point. If I look at all our delinquency buckets and the trends, I'd call them generally stable. You look at impaired PCL overall for the bank, we've had 2 sequential quarters of decreases, which, again, I would view as positive. So where we are right now year-to-date is 50 bps over 3 quarters. And what I said on the last call was I expect for the full year to be in the range that I gave the Street, which is 45 to 55 basis points.
Let's talk a bit about Q4. I don't give guidance by quarter, but I'll give you some sense of what I see in Q4. So in Q4, I expect from Q3 levels a bit of an uptick. The reason I expect an uptick is that there is seasonality in the U.S. consumer credit book, okay? And I've talked about that seasonality many times, but let me give you a few more points. What happens is starting from the back-to-school period till the end of the holidays, spending increases. As spending increases, the delinquency pressure on cards increases. As the delinquency pressure increases on cards, we see the delinquency pressure on auto increase as well. So that happens Q4, it happens Q1. And then in Q2, what happens is customers get tax rebates and they become current on their payment.
So because of that, I do see a bit of an uptick in impaired PCLs for Q4. And then you asked about 2026, and we are still working on our guidance for '26. And in Q4, we will give you guidance. But what I expect is a gradual increase in impaired PCL because of the tariff and trade actions, I see that playing out in '26. But as a bank, we are actually prudently reserved for that circumstance. We built $600 million of reserves, and we're intending to use it. And we will continue to reassess our PCL every quarter. And to the extent that things turn out to be more positive, we would even release that PCL. So overall, I think the message is the TD credit book is strong, and we are well reserved. We're sitting at 103 bps of reserves. We're well capitalized. So I do feel we're pretty well positioned.
Maybe can you give us a sense of how you think about the credit impact of the current tariff environment? And how do you think about potential credit outcomes given the uncertainty?
So the credit impact of tariffs is factored into our macro scenarios, and it's factored into our ACL numbers as well. And this last quarter, for our macro scenarios, we actually used a shallow recession for Canada, and we used lower economic growth for the United States. We then have a downside case, which is -- I would describe it a more typical recession, but it does factor in elevated risk from tariffs. And then in addition to all of that, we've actually built overlays. We built reserves through overlays. And I mentioned it on the investor call, we have built a little over $400 million for non-retail for the non-retail industries that could be impacted.
And the way we did this is we actually looked at all the industries. We looked at which industries are exposed. We then looked at which borrowers are most sensitive to tariffs. We assumed credit migration and based on that credit migration that drove our announced numbers. And then on the consumer side, so we didn't stop at non-retail. We looked at the impact of tariffs and inflation on rates, on unemployment, and we've built close to $200 million for the consumer side as well. So again, this tariff risk is pretty much in our numbers. And I feel good about what we've done, the actions we've taken. And I think those that know us well will know that we're very prudent when it comes to reserve building.
Great. When I contrast your build here to the pandemic, you added $4.1 billion in performing reserves during the pandemic compared to the $600 million you've built here for policy and trade. Maybe compare, contrast these for us?
I can. And I'll start by saying that no 2 scenarios are the same. And we all lived through the pandemic, and the pandemic was a very different scenario. The pandemic was a total shutdown of the economies and the return of the recovery path was so unclear. At one point, we really debated actively, is it going to be a V? Is it going to be an L? Is it going to be a K? Is it going to be a U? This policy and trade matter, I think, is quite different. It is going to inhibit economic growth. It's going to have some impact on business investments. It could lead to lower economic growth. There is possibility of a shallow recession in some economies like Canada, but it's a very different scenario.
The second thing I'd call out is fiscal stimulus. During the pandemic, there was significant fiscal stimulus provided. For example, in Canada, it was 12% of GDP. In the United States, it was 23% of GDP. In this current scenario that we're living through, we're not making those kind of assumptions. There is going to be fiscal stimulus, but our assumption is it's going to be very low. So again, no 2 scenarios are the same with the pandemic and what we're living through, I'd say it's dramatically different.
Can you tell us about where you're seeing some of the pressure so far? Which industries do you see as particularly in focus?
I can. And as I said just a few minutes earlier, we're not seeing much impact right now at the borrower level. There's a bit in steel and auto and aluminum. But as I said, I expect that to play out over a period of time. We have looked at all our industries across Canada and the United States and really assessed which are exposed to tariffs. So -- and I think this is in our disclosures. Examples of that include automotive, agriculture, sundry manufacturing, food and beverage, retail, transportation, industrial construction and trade contractors. And again, you can get the details from our disclosures. And that amounts to about 9% of our gross loans.
We then went and said, out of these, which are the industries and the borrowers that are most sensitive to tariffs. And that is less than 1% of our gross loans. We took those names and then we actually put them through some stress tests to see how they would potentially migrate. And then we took that migration and that drove the $400-odd million that I talked about of results in non-retail. And then as I said, on the consumer side, we've assumed higher inflation and rates and unemployment to build some overlays there. So again, from my perspective, the uncertainty, the potential impact on industries, the reserves we've taken, those are all prudent actions, and the bank is very well positioned.
Great. And then maybe how do you think about the potential for an economic downturn? How do you ensure that you're prepared?
This is something that we do quite well as a bank, and we try to anticipate what's coming at us. And -- as I just said, no 2 scenarios are the same. So what my team and I do, and again, the first line is very involved with us as well, we take a step back and say, what are the scenarios that could play out and how do we plan for those broad array of scenarios. And we've actually done that in the last few months. We've looked at our playbooks. We've looked at what should be the industries of focus. We've looked at the consumer books, particularly the exposure, what I would describe as sitting in the tails because that's what's going to surprise you.
So we've looked very closely at that. We've looked at our key risk indicators saying, do we need any change in our key risk indicators. We've, of course, looked at our resource plans. We've stress tested various tariff scenarios to see how things could play out. And then we don't normally stop at financial risk. We try to think about nonfinancial risk that may be impacted under such scenarios. And a good example of that is cyber and third party and how do we build those into how we think about scenarios that could play out. So again, we have a very good playbook. We have experienced talent that works with us in these kind of situations. And our through-the-cycle underwriting standards also help us deliver results that are very acceptable to our investors.
All right. Turning to your consumer portfolio. TD has a large real estate secured lending portfolio in Canada at $407 billion. You've seen some strong growth in the third quarter. There's been this repeating narrative over the years that the shoe will drop at some point for Canadian RESL given challenging conditions for consumers, upcoming renewals and high home prices. Are you seeing any pressure on credit in RESL?
Let me get into some detail on RESL. And I've been hearing that phrase shoe will drop for quite a long time. The RESL book in Canada, it is very much the cornerstone of our Canadian retail franchise. If you look at our customer base, I'd describe it as having a strong profile. And I'll give you 2 data points. One is the average bureau score on that book is 792. It's high and a good number. The second one is really how our score is distributed and what's sitting in the tail. So if I look at customers with a bureau score of less than 650 and an LTV greater than 75%, that number is less than 1%, okay? So the customer profile is strong.
Then if I think more broadly about the credit quality in that book, there are a few metrics that I'm very focused on. One, of course, is the delinquency buckets. And what I'm seeing in the 30- to 89-day delinquency bucket is a bit of an uptick, but still numbers. Like when I talk about uptick, I'm talking about a bp, but numbers are still below pre-pandemic. If I look at greater than 90 days, a bit of an uptick, so at or below pre-pandemic. If I look at formations, it's at pre-pandemic levels. I look at negative amortizing balances, they're reducing. If I look at debt service numbers, they're trending down. So these metrics only reinforce the point that the book is strong.
The other area we've been very focused on is rate reset risk. And we've been looking at rate reset risk on our fixed book, on our variable book for a while. We've been looking at what we would describe as high-risk customers and what could be different, and we've been building reserves for those high-risk customers. If I look at 2026, 29% of the book is maturing, and that number is about $105 billion. And my team has run the analytics on it. So if I look at 2026, 64% of customers are going to be renewing at lower payment rates, at lower payments. The 36% will have higher payments. But of that 36% that have higher payments, 93% are within the B20 stress. That's very positive. And if I look at the percent of payment increase as a percent of income is 3.5%. So overall, I feel the book is strong. Yes, there's a bit of migration, but the book is strong. Our reserves at 11 bps, I'm very comfortable with our reserves.
There's been plenty in the news lately around pressure in the Canadian condo market. Can you speak on both the condo RESL portfolio and consumer as well as the condo developers portfolio in CRE. Do you have similar concerns in the U.S.?
I'm happy to elaborate on the Canadian condo market, and I'll start with our exposure. So our exposure is $62 billion. It's about 15% of our RESL book. And you're right in calling out, is there some pressure in the Canadian condo market? The answer is yes. What's driving that pressure in the Canadian condo market, it's a few things. It's lower population growth. It's the policy and trade uncertainty. It's the macro uncertainty relating to unemployment and wage growth, like that's driving some pressure in the Canadian condo market.
But what are the metrics we're seeing? We're seeing some increase in delinquency, both 30 to 89 and greater than 90-day buckets, but it's very much in line with the rest of RESL. So I'm not seeing anything unusual here. We're going to continue to monitor the book. My team has actually gone and stress tested that book, and we've looked at the downside case. And I'd say that downside case is very manageable. So I think the headline is we'll continue to monitor it, but nothing very unusual on the condo book right now.
You talked about the condo developer market in Canada. And I think I'll just make a few points there. Our exposure is fairly small. It's under $2.5 billion, and that's approximately 2% of our commercial gross loans. We don't have a huge amount of exposure. That exposure is diversified across 60 projects. A lot of them are in the GTA and GVA and a lot are with very strong and experienced developers. The presales in Canada on this book is 60% to 70%, which is a good, very positive data point. And if I look at walkaway risk, okay, this is where did the investors buy, where is the market at, I would describe the walkaway risk right now as low, okay?
And the last point I'd make, again is we've stress tested this book. We've looked at the downside. The downside is quite manageable. And then you asked about the U.S. condo market. And again, I'd say our exposure there is fairly small. It's about 9% of U.S. RESL, which is USD 4 billion. Again, the metrics they are very much in line with the rest of RESL. And on U.S. condo developers, we really are not active in that space.
All right. Let's pivot to AML, a key focus for the investors. After going through such an event followed by a major overhaul of the risk infrastructure, can you talk to how the risk culture has changed at TD? You have a number of new people and new roles throughout the organization. How have you been working towards creating a unified risk culture? And then finally, can you talk maybe how the interaction between the 3 lines of defense has changed following that?
I know there's a lot there, but I will say it's a very pertinent question. And I'll start by saying that from my standpoint, there's nothing more important than culture in any organization. And for a bank, it's risk culture. And I've been at TD for 3 -- a little over 3 decades. And from my perspective, TD does have a strong foundation. It's central to its brand. It's central to its strategy. We've spent the last 2 decades trying to operationalize this culture, push our risk appetite deep into the organization. We've also linked our risk behaviors to performance and compensation.
Having said that, okay, what we've learned is you can't take the existence of a good culture for granted. It's something you got to work on. And there are some real lessons that have been learned by our institution through this AML event. Those lessons, Brian, are being taken very seriously. And we also saw leadership behaviors that are inconsistent with our expectations. So that begs the question, what are we doing about this? And I'd say we're doing a lot. And let me call out a few things. One is -- these lessons learned haven't been confined to 10, 15 people at TD. We've gone broadly to the organization and made sure those lessons have been shared with everyone.
The second one is on leadership behaviors, okay? We've again broadly communicated our expectations on leadership behaviors, and there is leadership behavior training internally at the bank as well.
The third thing I'd call out is roles and responsibility. They are much more clear across all lines of defense. The fourth thing I'd call out is ownership and accountability of risk is much better understood. And the fifth thing I'll say is the collaboration across the 3 lines of defense and the urgency and the responsiveness of dealing with risk matters is dramatically improved. So again, it is a very unfortunate event in our history. We're learning from it. We're taking it very, very seriously. And I do feel we're doing the right things. We're on the path to recovery.
Great. And then can you also provide us an update on how TD is managing through your remediation program? Maybe give us a little bit -- talk about what your role is in the remediation program.
Absolutely. So again, I'll focus my comments more on the U.S., but you'd be aware that whatever we're doing in the U.S. also benefits the entire enterprise. So we are where we thought we'd be on the remediation program. And we've said this publicly that we expect majority of our management remediation actions to be complete by the end of 2025. But there still is significant work and milestones to be achieved in '26 and '27. And the management remediation actions that we talked about are a broad set of actions to strengthen the AML and financial crimes program. And I would actually encourage investors to go and look at our disclosures to see how we define management remediation actions.
Examples of some of the milestones we've achieved, we have top talent at the bank, and that talent is led -- the AML department is led by Jackie Sanjuas. If I look at our investigations capabilities in the bank, they've significantly improved. We have new case management tools. We have more investigative analysts. We have better procedures and workflows. I think Leo at a conference recently talked about transaction monitoring. We have a new transaction monitoring system in the United States, and there are 21 or 22 new scenarios that have been implemented. And we've started also implementing machine learning tools in the transaction monitoring environment so that we get efficiencies and are able to detect the risk early. So -- and then there's a lot of focus on training and development.
I do want to emphasize that all of this work is subject to internal review and validation. It is subject to ongoing review by the monitor, and it is subject to review and acceptance by our regulators and the DOJ. So the point I'd emphasize is #1 priority -- it is a multiyear effort. We're very focused on it.
And the last point, what is my role, I mean, the AML department of TD Bank does report up to me, and it is my team, and Jackie Sanjuas does have a direct reporting relationship to me. It's her team that's leading the effort. But again, I do want to emphasize that all lines of defense are involved in this remediation. This is not just about the second one.
Great. Given the bank's strategic review, including the limitations placed on the bank in the context of the asset cap in the U.S. as well as the uncertainty presented as a result of the tariff landscape, have there been any changes in TD's risk appetite?
No. I mean risk appetite is not something that we change. We have a principles-based risk appetite, and we have certain -- a couple of core risk appetite measures. We don't go and change those. I mean the lending and growth that we see are in areas that very much fit our risk appetite. And I think we talk a lot about underwriting standards. We don't change our underwriting standards through the cycle. The only time we would change it is if we think there's going to be unexpected loss. And generally, what I found is that our underwriting standards by keeping them consistent and being pretty rigid on risk appetite that has served us well through cycles. And you're going to hear more about the strategy refresh. The only comment I'd make there is that, that has been fully -- I've been involved throughout. It's been fully vetted by the risk organization. There's no change in risk appetite. Whatever is going to be presented in the coming weeks is very much within the bank's risk appetite.
Great. Is there anything additional you can add with regards to the bank's strategic review?
Not a lot because the Investor Day is coming up in a few weeks. The point I'd make is that there is a lot of excitement internally, excitement with the strategy refresh, excitement with the change in leadership to Ray. There's a lot of effort that's gone in into the strategy refresh. As I said, it's fully vetted by my team and the strategy refresh is very much within our risk appetite. So more to come. And as I said, we hope our investors like it.
Great. Why don't we open it up to the floor. Does anyone have any questions for Ajai?
Any other closing comments you have, Ajai?
Well, the point I'd emphasize, AML is our #1 priority. We're working on it. Majority of actions by the end of '25. But again, this is a multiyear endeavor, significant work to happen in '26 and '27. And then the second point I'd make is on credit quality. I want to emphasize that the book is strong. We're very well provisioned. And then third is just on the refresh and Investor Day. I mean, we're very excited internally, those of us that are privy to the strategy refresh. So look forward to seeing everyone on Investor Day. Thank you.
Thank you, Ajai. Please join me in thanking Ajai for his presentation.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Barclays 23rd Annual Global Financial Services Conference
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Barclays 23rd Annual Global Financial Services Conference
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kurzversion: TD stellt Anti‑Money‑Laundering (AML) als Top‑Priorität in den Mittelpunkt, hat rund 600 Mio. USD an zusätzlichen Reserven aufgebaut und berichtet eine Reservedeckung von etwa 103 Basispunkten. Management betont starke Kreditqualität und verbesserte Risikokultur vor dem anstehenden Investor Day.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Remediation: Mehrheit der Management‑Maßnahmen soll bis Ende 2025 abgeschlossen sein; substanzielle Arbeit bleibt in 2026–2027.
- Operationalisierung: Neue Tools (Transaction Monitoring, Case‑Management), Einsatz von Machine Learning, mehr Investigations‑Analysten und Führungstraining zur Verhaltensänderung.
- Risikoposition: Keine Änderung der prinzipienbasierten Risk‑Appetite; Underwriting‑Standards bleiben unverändert, Strategie‑Refresh ist von Risikoteam vetted.
🔍 Neue Informationen
- Tarif‑Overlays: Ca. 400 Mio. USD für nicht‑Retail‑Exposures und ~200 Mio. USD für Konsumenten als explizite Overlays (insgesamt ≈600 Mio. USD).
- Portfoliozahlen: Kanadische Real‑Estate‑Secured‑Lending (RESL) ~407 Mrd. CAD, Condo‑Exposure ~62 Mrd. CAD, Developer‑CRE <2,5 Mrd. CAD.
- Guidance: FY2025 PCL‑Band bestätigt bei 45–55 Basispunkten; keine neue 2026‑Guidance bis Q4.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Kredittrend: Analysten fragten nach Timing und Trajektorie der PCLs; Management erwartet saisonales Q4‑Uptick in Karten/Auto, bestätigt aber keine Quartals‑Guidance.
- Tarifrisiken: Nachfrage nach betroffenen Branchen (Auto, Stahl, Landwirtschaft, Transport); TD nennt 9% der Bruttokredite exponiert, sensitive Namen <1%.
- AML & Kultur: Fragen zu Kulturwandel, Verantwortlichkeiten und Überwachung; Management nennt klarere Rollen, intensivere drei‑Linien‑Zusammenarbeit und externe Prüfungen durch Monitor/Regulatoren.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Für Anleger bedeutet der Vortrag ein risikozentriertes Narrativ: kurzfristige Ressourcenbindung durch AML‑Remediation und Reservesetzungen, aber gleichzeitig konservative Kreditprofile und explizite Overlays reduzieren das Abwärtsrisiko. Wichtige Watchpoints: Erfüllung der Remediation‑Milestones, Q4‑PCL‑Entwicklung und die am Investor Day präsentierte Strategie zur Kapitalallokation.
Toronto-Dominion Bank — 2025 Scotiabank Financials Summit
1. Question Answer
So I'd like to welcome our next guest, Leo Salom, who is the Group Head of TD's U.S. Retail business. Leo, welcome.
Mike, good to see you.
Good to see you as well, as always. Thank you for joining us today, and I thought maybe we could start with a bit of a macro question. Obviously, there's been a bit of volatility in the economy, both Canada and the U.S., but for the U.S. specifically, how do you sort of see the macroeconomic environment currently? And how do you see it evolving? And how does it sort of inform your views on your business?
Yes. I would say the U.S. economy has been incredibly resilient. I think a number of things, the consumer has remained very strong, in fact, potentially even pulling in some of the purchases as a result of the tariff concerns. We've seen unemployment relatively stable. We've seen a tick or two, but the reality is the market is still healthy in that regard. Tariffs, which I think we all feared was going to have a much more significant impact. I think those fears haven't played out. And there is a lot of investment dollars that are poised to go into certain industries, certainly in technology, biomedical. And so I think in many ways, the U.S. has been able to weather this period relatively well. Now there's tremendous uncertainty, Mike. And I guess we're all paid as bankers to be prepared we still have geopolitical risk that we've got to manage, there's still not clarity as to how these tariff frameworks are going to translate into true policy. So we continue to be vigilant. But I'd say, for the most part, if we do see the rate cut forecast that are right now built in the futures, I do think that the market context for next year in the U.S. is relatively constructive.
And obviously, on the credit side, that would be important for investors as well. So the credit outlook seemingly stable for now. Does this sort of indicate any pockets of stress in the book. Are you seeing any areas of concern? Or is it just sort of steady as she goes?
Well, you would have heard our Chief Risk Officer at the earnings announcement last week talk about the fact that we have set aside a performing reserve of $600 million, and that's Canadian, with the expressed purpose to try to address stress events that could materialize in vulnerable industries. So we have put that in place, a bit of an insurance policy to see how this tariff final negotiations play out. I'd say with regards to the U.S. book specifically, we've just come off a very benign, very strong PCL quarter. PCLs were $230 million. That was down $80 million quarter-on-quarter, half -- a little less than half of that was NCO performance. Half of that was lower performing PCLs related to the tariff builds. So I think we feel pretty good about some of the core leading indicators. The consumer remains strong. Our credit card book is performing well. And even in non-retail and some of the commercial books, we've seen a relatively healthy evolution in terms of the book. That said, to your point around staying vigilant, lower income segments of the marketplace are seeing some degree of stress. And certainly, in the commercial real estate sector, depending on what happens to medium-term rates, I think that will be a very important factor in terms of the health in some of those pockets. We have been -- as you know, we've been reducing the level of commercial real estate exposure for the last 4 years. So we feel relatively well positioned for it. And I'd say, overall, between credit performance being sound, the provisions that we've built for tariff-related items and just the quality of the allowance that we have, I think we're pretty well positioned as we go into 2026.
And on the retail side, I'm guessing same thing, stability, like you've got some near-prime lending in the auto side, that's still no signs of stress.
To your point, we don't operate in the subprime business at all. So our deepest reach portfolios would be the auto book.
Near prime.
Where we have near prime, and typically, that's about 9% of the overall book. So it's a relatively small amount of the overall footprint. I'd say the deepest portfolio we have is our co-branded partnership with Target, where obviously, we share the PCL exposure there. And that segment has seen some degree of pressure, but certainly well within our overall forecast models.
Got it. Got it. And then on the AML, obviously, very topical and you did make some commentary on the last call that you've reached some milestones. Just sort of high level, curious on where you are in that journey? It sounds like you're in the later innings and you've obviously done a lot to sort of fix what was ailing. Any color you could add there?
Yes. I know I've had a chance to speak to many of you on this topic, but I'm very pleased with the progress we're making on the AML remediation front. I think it starts with having built a great talented AML team of executives. We hired Jackie Sanjuas over from Citi. She's our BSA/AML Officer, not only for the U.S. but globally. We've assembled a group of 40 titled executives across the AML -- across the different AML domain functions. I think these are individuals from leading institutions, both G-SIBs as well as leading law enforcement agencies, Homeland Security, the FBI, FinCEN, et cetera. They've brought a tremendous amount of experience, and those individuals are now building out our program. We completed a major milestone with the implementation of our transaction -- our next-generation transaction monitoring platform. That was a critical deliverable, complex deliverable. We've now ported all of our planned scenarios. They're now operating on that new environment. So that's a major milestone. Likewise, we implemented a new customer risk rating platform on that new next-generation technology as well. And we're recalibrating the risk across the book and then acting and applying due diligence accordingly. This past quarter, we announced that we implemented two machine learning platforms, one to help us detect anomalous behavior on our transaction monitoring environment. And the second to look at any sort of adverse media screening alerts and be able to resolve them effectively. And so both of those are not only giving us another degree of redundancy, but eventually, we'll start translating into significant efficiency in terms of our transaction monitoring environment as well. So very pleased with the progress we're making. We are holding to our guidance. The bulk of our management actions will be completed by the end of calendar 2025. There'll still be some important milestones that we'll need to address in 2026 and 2027. But we are tracking right where we said we would be. And we're also tracking to the investment envelope that we said we would incur. So we will spend $500 million on our AML remediation this year, and we'll spend a comparable amount next year as well. And I think we find ourselves in a very good position. But I just want to emphasize as well, the investments we're making here will not only -- are not only intended to build a world-class AML platform, but they're leverageable. The assets we're building as part of this AML will be leverageable, whether it's the data infrastructure changes we're making, the changes in technology should shore up and should allow us to accelerate and build a more sustainable foundation for the bank.
It sounds like it's a concurrent strategy where it's not just benefiting the U.S., but it's bank wide at the same time.
Exactly.
Not something that does -- happens first in the U.S. and gets rolled out. It's more concurrent.
Mike, at the risk of bringing the entire group way into the weeds, but we're implementing a single client master that allows you to more effectively be able to look at one client across the entire institution across the 20-some-odd platforms we have. That piece of technology, which obviously is very useful for AML is highly leverageable for our marketing, our commercialization strategies, our servicing platforms. And so we're trying to be as thoughtful about how we spend in order to get as much leverage as we possibly can.
Got it. Got it. And then on your business in terms of the balance sheet optimization, that's something that you're very focused on. Maybe just remind investors in the room -- you sounded very confident that you can still grow even with the asset cap. Just remind us on that upside and maybe where you've sort of gotten to at this point?
Sure. So likewise, very pleased with the progress on the balance sheet restructuring piece. If I take you back to the announcement we made in October, we said we were going to get a 10% headroom of the $434 billion cap. I'm pleased to say in the third quarter, we've achieved that threshold. So we came in at -- overall assets came in at $386 billion. It's $48 billion of headroom. And that when you couple that $48 billion with the non-HQLA balances that we have, which are about $40 billion, we have $90 billion of capacity against $180 billion loan book. So to your point, Mike, around do we have the capacity to be able to grow? I think we've got the capacity to grow certainly at the historical levels of growth and/or at market expected growth rates for many years to come. And that was the first major hurdle, the big check mark that we want to achieve. We're still looking at further opportunities to optimize the balance sheet as we try to drive towards a more return-on-equity focused performance in the U.S. But for the most part, we're very pleased with the progress we've made thus far.
Okay. And you did mention additional loan reductions. I think the number was $18 billion.
That's correct.
Maybe talk a little bit about that. Is it selling portfolios or runoff, maybe a bit of both.
No. No, I'd say what we have left, there's a small corporate banking portfolio that we'll be shifting over to TD Securities just based on our internal segmentation. But if you leave that aside, for the most part, it's just organically going through the book and making sure that we are establishing deeper relationships with those clients that they're priced effectively. And if we're not able to do those two things, obviously, we'll run off select portfolio. So that runoff will take place through 2026 and beyond. So there'll be a tail exposure for 2027 and 2028 as well. We're going to be really focused, though, on core loan growth. So I just want to emphasize, we have posted core loan growth in our businesses for the last 3 quarters. And we certainly expect that, that will accelerate as we've now created the capacity, we've created the confidence amongst our clients that we will be able to stand by them and continue to grow with them, and that was a major objective when we set out for the balance sheet restructuring exercise.
Okay. And then as you sort of do this optimization further, the margin, obviously, has had a very strong uptick for two consecutive quarters, and I don't think anyone was expecting that to continue. But what's the sort of longer-term outlook on the margin side as you optimize, as you get to where you need to be?
So third quarter, we did have a good margin quarter. We came in at 3.19 overall, and that was up 15 basis points on a quarter-on-quarter basis. I'd say a number of factors just to decompose that a bit. One, obviously, the investment bond repositioning activities that are largely complete, Mike, the nearly $25 billion of rotation has been a source of tailwind in terms of overall NIM. We have further reduced the excess liquidity that we built up back in October of last year. We continue to run that down. And likewise, we're seeing tracker on rates influencing deposit margins, and we're seeing some improvement there as well. So those three factors largely maybe a little bit of runoff of lower-yielding loans, all are contributing to a better NIM performance. We did guide the fourth quarter to a moderate expansion in NIM yet again. As we go into 2026, a lot of factors at play. So I wouldn't want to venture in terms of guidance at this point. But depending on how rates evolve, depending on overall market conditions, we can see that move around, but I'm still relatively constructive on what the NIM evolution will be going into 2026.
Got it. Maybe just on the broader strategy in the U.S., if you could just maybe touch on your longer-term ambitions, maybe starting with the wealth management business. Obviously, that's something that is a very light capital -- light touch on capital...
Maybe if I could, because I don't know how familiar everyone is for the U.S. retail segment. If I can just sort of frame the bank for a moment. The bank today is a top 10 institution. We service 10 million retail clients, 700,000 commercial and small business clients. We are one of the best capitalized and most liquid institutions of any of the top 25 banks in the U.S. We find ourselves in a moment where we are doing a tremendous amount of soul-searching and looking at our infrastructure to strengthen that infrastructure. But we build off some real significant strengths. First, we have an exceptional deposit franchise. $234 billion in overall deposits, 88% of that in nonterm, 75% of that in markets where we're either #1, #2 or #3 from a market share position and at an overall cost of 169 basis points, which gives us a very profitable funding base to be able to support the bank's activities. I'd say second, we've got a really strong small business franchise. We service -- we are the largest SBA lender on the East Coast. We have been the largest SBA lender for the last 8 years. So we have a deeply embedded franchise. And that extends into community banking as well, where legacy of the three commercial banks that we acquired, we have deep commercial banking relationships in the communities in which we operate. To your point, there are some opportunities, though, that are more -- that really allow us to accelerate the growth that we currently enjoy in the U.S. And I'd say two areas, in particular, and we'll talk about this at some length at the Investor Day is the wealth management business, and the cards business. Let me just start on the cards business for a moment. About 3 years ago, we were able to hire away Chris Fred from Citi. We brought them over to run our overall bank cards business. We've done a lot of work in that space. We've retooled the product offering. We've enhanced and innovated our underwriting capabilities. We've implemented new digital capability to support the card servicing business. We've migrated multiple cards platforms onto our new target environment. And I really do believe we are really in an exceptional position to begin to start pressing our advantage in cards. Our first area of focus is going to be making sure that our TD checking account clients have our credit card in their wallet. So being very focused on an on us relationship deepening push in cards, I think will give us the capability to double our proprietary bank card business. And that's something we're -- we believe is very achievable and we're very focused on making that happen, and that will be a significant contributor in terms of overall profitability -- revenue growth and profitability. I'd say the second area that I'd focus on and you mentioned it is wealth, and that one is a little close to my heart because I did run the wealth business in -- here in Canada for a number of years. And I do think we have just a greenfield opportunity to build a next-generation wealth franchise in the U.S. And what I mean by that is because of the TD Ameritrade relationship and Schwab relationship, we've never really built a wealth franchise per se. We've had some accommodative capabilities, but the shareholder agreement that we had with TD Ameritrade basically said we were the bank and they're the investment provider. So without those limitations, we're being really focused on building our wealth capabilities with our strong focus on the mass affluent client. We have the 10 million total clients, about 3 million of them fall in the mass affluent segment. And we want to be able to bring retirement services and mass affluent investment services to that segment in a very bundled retail wealth sort of core offering, not too dissimilar to what we've done here in Canada with the build-out of our financial planning business, which has been one of the most successful platforms here in the country. So I do think that we've got a lot of work to do in that space. It will be a multiyear endeavor. But as we think longer term, it will be a source, not only of profitability, incremental profitability, but it will be a source of enhancement in terms of return on equity. And it will also allow us to further embed our retail clients with the bank, which I think is going to be critical if we're going to truly be that client's advisory partner through their life events. So long-winded way of saying we have a strong franchise today, but Mike, I think in both those areas that you've talked about cards and wealth, I think we've got some great opportunities moving forward.
So it sounds like the fee-based revenue in your business should be the stronger growth driver on the top line going forward as opposed to NII?
Well, I think both will grow because cards will certainly contribute to the NII story as well as some of the work that we're doing in mid-market. But there's no question that we want to prioritize fee-based opportunities. And that will be in a number of areas. It will be continuing to grow our core deposit businesses and making sure that we're getting the service fee opportunities there. Obviously, the last 3 years prior to this, there have been a number of fee rules, overdraft rules, et cetera, that did bite into fee income. I think the outlook on that is going to be more positive going forward. So that will be a source of growth. I think also, we'll see growth in our wealth businesses. That will be a growth of fee growth for us. And then in the mid-market space, working very closely with TD Cowen, I think that will be an area where we'll be able to bring greater transaction banking and other advisory services to bear in tandem with TD Cowen. So I think that will be a source of growth as well. .
Okay. And then on the expense side, I think that was one question mark some investors had on the quarter. In terms of the spending outside of the AML initiatives, what would you sort of offer on the expense side? Obviously, you have to invest if you're going to fund growth, but how do you sort of counterbalance that growth versus expenses versus trying to get to that positive operating leverage as a run rate?
Mike, we said back earlier in -- back in October, we said that 2025 was going to be a transition year for us, and that we were going to make some very significant investments in our governance and control environment and that's, in fact, what we're doing. The vast majority of the increase in the quarter was related to some of our risk programs, including the AML program. But I just want to spend a moment on two things. We are also investing in the franchise as well. And I'll call out two areas. The one we have successfully negotiated an agreement with one of our co-branded partners, Nordstrom, where we'll be extending the contract to 2032. But as part of that, we are going to become not only their funding partner and their credit card advisory partner but we will be servicing their entire 4.5 million credit card base. And so as a result of that, our revenue and P&L shift will change. So a portion of the work we're doing right now is just investing in the conversion process. So we do have some elevated conversion costs that we're incurring presently that we'll incur over the next 2 quarters. We'll convert that platform at the end of the first quarter and that will generate a higher revenue share arrangement for us for 2026 for the back end of 2026 and beyond. I'd say the other area that we're investing quite a bit and it's sort of a dual areas, we're spending very deliberately on our digital capabilities. I truly believe you cannot be in the retail banking space without having a world-class digital platform. So we're trying to build both servicing as well as sales capabilities commensurate with best-in-class retailers. And that's a purposeful area of spend for us. The other area that we're spending on is our technology modernization. And many of you might have had conversations with me, I really believe simplifying our data and technical architecture is critical to getting our unit cost and run costs down over time in a more structural way. And so those areas are garnering investment from us at this point in time. I did want to, though, give the group some comfort with regards to the outlook in terms of expenses. We're also leaning in on productivity quite deliberately, both in terms of looking at the organization, the structure of the organization. We closed 38 stores, so we're optimizing the store network to be able to create investment dollars to that digital pivot. We are rationalizing our corporate real estate envelope to bring down structural costs. And obviously, as I talked about the technology and data modernization type programs will yield benefit over time as well. So we're still very focused on productivity. The guidance that we provided on the call was that we will -- we would expect expenses to be relatively similar in the fourth quarter to what they were in the third quarter on an absolute basis. And that will moderate the level of growth of expense in 2026 down to mid-single digit. And the one additional thing I would add is that mid-single-digit number includes the higher expenses from the rev share structure, the new rev share structure with Nordstrom. So that gives you a sense of we're being very deliberate to try to grow into the level of expense that we have today, and we'll continue to be on the front foot in terms of productivity. With the purpose not only of trying to fund some of our remediation expenses, but to be able to fund some of the strategic accelerators that we think are available to us.
Got it. Maybe talk a little bit about the synergies or the link between your business and the wholesale business in the U.S. So TD Cowen, obviously, has been ramped up quite a bit. So a lot of investment in that business. What's the sort of link? And where are some of the opportunities that you see over the longer term?
Yes. Some of you would have certainly heard Tim Wiggan, who runs our TD Securities business. Talk about TD Cowen as completing TD Securities because it did provide for both U.S. and global, a very strong research, equity research, equity capital markets and advisory capabilities that completes where our traditional strengths have been on the TD Securities side. I'd say what that doesn't tell you though is the complement that exists with the commercial bank. TD Cowen has a long, a very long mid-market client roster that they have developed for more than a decade. And they have a really strong relationships with mid-market sponsors. And I think the advantage of merging TD Cowen's client base as well as their sponsor relationships with our balance sheet and our transactional banking capabilities and eventually the ability to upstream them into TD Securities for future capital decisions is a unique opportunity we didn't have, Mike before. So I do think that this partnership is really important. What we've done already is we've taken three senior leaders from TD Cowen, and we moved them into the commercial bank, running different aspects of the bridge between the two businesses. And you're beginning to see a little bit of the results. You would have seen our level of mid-market balance growth has been improving, and we're clearly outperforming our mid-market peers in that space at this point. We're coming off a smaller base, so you'd expect us to be able to do that. But you're also seeing an increase in our fee revenues associated with some of our commercial banking activities as we buy now more credibly for lead positions as opposed to simply being a participant. And I think that's going to be a very disciplined push. I'll just add one additional thing. We were -- we brought over Jill Gateman from PNC, where she was the Co-Head of Corporate Banking, and Jill is driving that mid-market transformation for us, and she's doing a wonderful job. So as we continue to lean in on this, I think the partnership is going to be another source of strength for us.
Okay. Great. On the AI side, obviously, there's an expense dynamic on efficiency gains over time. There's also a revenue dynamic, potential revenue gains as well. Maybe -- and not to ask you to quantify that might be at the Investor Day, it might not be. I'm guessing it probably will.
Stay tuned.
But any high-level thoughts on AI and how that impacts your business?
So at the risk of dramatizing the point, I think this is probably one of the biggest levers that the banking industry is going to be able to embrace. I should say, industry, generally speaking, but the banking industry certainly. I do think that some of the early steps that TD took with the acquisition of Layer 6, with the build-out of our model development capabilities on both sides of the border, we just announced the creation of the Layer 6 hub in New York City, and we're rapidly building out the teams there. We're not stopping at just model development. We're trying to build an organization that can pull through AI development activities right through to implementation. And that's going to be the key. Building the model is actually the easier part. It's then weaving it seamlessly into your operating processes, which is more challenging, and that's deliberately what we're trying to do. There's probably -- I can probably rattle off many use cases, but there's probably 3 or 4 areas where we're trying to be really deliberate around getting after the opportunity. Probably the simplest one is knowledge management. So wherever there is complex information that needs to be provided via an agent, via a relationship manager, et cetera, building the tooling so that, that individual can simply query the policies and the procedures across the bank and be able to provide clients with valuable on the spot. That's a huge source of productivity, makes the front end much more knowledgeable, allows you to be able to bring -- shorten the learning curves of new hires as you bring them on board. So that's a big area of focus for us, call centers, the branches, relationship managers. We're trying to retool these sort of knowledge management models for those various teams. I think the area that excites me more is more around the operational automation type applications. Wherever we have highly manual, repetitive analytical activities where today, you have a human being trying to decipher that those really lend themselves to a big labor arbitrage opportunity. And so we're trying to prioritize those. Those have the biggest expense -- short-term expense reduction value. So think of our fraud areas, even AML, our operational teams, rethinking the workflow there and figuring out how we can inject greater AI to be able to do more of the heavy lifting is going to be a big area of focus. And I'd say the last one, ironically is we're doing a lot of retooling on our tech modernization front, arming our developers with the toolkit so that they can code much more -- in a much more automated fashion is critically important. And we have deployed AI solutioning to allow that acceleration of code. And it's important we're seeing somewhere between a 30% to 35% lift in productivity amongst our technology core as a result of embedding that into their worktop. So I think in many ways, this is going to -- I've given you three examples, but the reality is I really think institutions that are able to embrace not only development, the model development component piece, but really the reengineering of processes through AI. That will be a big source of investment for us. And I think since we have the hood open in many ways with regards to some of the work that we're doing on governance and control, we're trying to make sure that we're leveraging some of this next-generation technology to be able to extract greater productivity.
Okay. Thank you for that thoughtful response. We've got about a minute left. Maybe I'll just turn it over to you, Leo, if you had any final key messages that you want investors to take away with from this discussion.
Well, Mike, thanks again for the invitation. It's great to be here with all of you. I'd say -- if I leave you with one message is that we have done what we said we would do a year ago. I know a year ago, I had very candid discussions with many of you with regards to what we were going to have to do in the U.S. And I'd say whether it's the work on the AML remediation front or whether it's the U.S. balance sheet restructuring work or the investment bond repositioning activity or ensuring that we could maintain core momentum outside of the balance sheet restructuring pieces. I think we can point to all of those and say that we've been able to make real substantial progress against that. But I'd also point to the earnings improvement that we've seen in the institution. We've had 3 quarters of sequential earnings growth. You're beginning to see a bit more of a normalized earnings profile based on what we've been able to generate recently. And we've done that while increasing our return on equity. Return on equity was at 8.9% in the quarter. We still have more work to do on that front, but that was up 60 basis points quarter-on-quarter, and it was up 140 basis points from early in the year. As we look forward, we will be providing on Investor Day guidance with regards to earnings outlook as well as guidance with regards to our return on equity hurdles. I think it's important, given where we are in terms of the evolution of the U.S. business that we provide our investors greater clarity on that front. But if I leave you with something, and you'd expect me to say this, but I'm incredibly optimistic about our franchise in the U.S. I think we have -- in two decades, we've built a top 10 bank in the U.S. We are still a very young franchise. This moment that we're living is letting us build an incredibly powerful infrastructure that will serve us very well not only to solve a specific AML program, but to build the platform to be a more formidable competitor in the U.S. marketplace. And that's exactly what we're going to try to do. And in the quarters to come, certainly in Investor Day in the quarters to come, we'll continue to provide you an update in terms of how we're evolving against that overall mission. But I do thank for all the investors that have been supporting the stock as you have recently, greatly appreciated, and we'll continue to get at the work we have to do. So thank you.
Awesome. Thank you very much, Leo, for the insights. Thank you for joining us today. Much appreciated, and...
Thanks, Mike. Appreciate it.
Thanks very much.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Toronto-Dominion Bank — 2025 Scotiabank Financials Summit
Toronto-Dominion Bank — 2025 Scotiabank Financials Summit
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: TDs US‑Retail präsentiert Fortschritt bei AML‑Remediation und Bilanzoptimierung, zeigt operativen Fortschritt (dreimal sequenzielle Ergebnissteigerung) und setzt auf Karten‑ sowie Wealth‑Wachstum plus Tech/AI‑Hebel. Management betont, dass Investitionen kurzfristig kosten, langfristig RoE und Erträge stärken.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- AML‑Programm: Großes Investment: 500 Mio. $ in 2025 und vergleichbarer Betrag 2026; Einführung Next‑Gen Transaction Monitoring und Customer Risk Rating plus zwei ML‑Modelle zur Anomalie‑/Adverse‑Media‑Erkennung.
- Bilanz: Asset‑Cap‑Optimierung erreicht: Gesamtassets bei $386 Mrd., ~ $48 Mrd. Headroom; Non‑HQLA ~ $40 Mrd. → ~ $90 Mrd. Kapazität gegenüber $180 Mrd. Kreditbuch; weiterer Abbau von ~ $18 Mrd. geplant (Run‑off/Portfolioumschichtung).
- Wachstum: Fokus auf Karten (Ziel: Verdopplung proprietärer Karten) und Aufbau eines US‑Wealth‑Angebots für Mass‑Affluent (~3 Mio. Kunden). Nordstrom‑Deal: Vertrag bis 2032, Übernahme von 4,5 Mio. Karten‑Konten.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Update: Konkrete Meilensteine: Implementierte Monitoring‑Plattformen, ML‑Tools live, Investment‑Rotation ~$25 Mrd. abgeschlossen, PCL (Provisions for Credit Losses) Q recent $230 Mio. (−$80 Mio. q/q). Investor Day angekündigt für detaillierte Ertrags‑ und RoE‑Ziele.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Kreditrisiken: Management sieht aktuell stabile Kreditqualität; warnte vor Stress in Bereichen mit niedrigerem Einkommen und Commercial Real Estate, hat aber eine performende Reserve von 600 Mio. CAD eingerichtet.
- Kosten/Investitionen: Diskussion über kurzfristig höhere Aufwände (AML, Digital, Konvertierungskosten Nordstrom) vs. Produktivitätsprogramme; Guidance: 4Q‑Aufwand in etwa auf 3Q‑Niveau, 2026er Kostenwachstum mittlere einstellige Prozentwerte.
- Margen & Kapazität: NIM (Net Interest Margin) 3,19% in Q3 (+15 bps q/q); Management vermeidet feste NIM‑Prognose für 2026, betont aber ausreichende Kapazität zum organischen Wachstum trotz Asset Cap.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Klare Execution‑Signale reduzieren Risiko‑Prämien: AML‑Investitionen und Bilanzmaßnahmen sind teuer, aber zielgerichtet und hebeln langfristig Ertrag und Return on Equity (RoE). Investor Day wird wichtig für konkrete Finanzziele und Timing.
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the TD Bank Group Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Ms. Brooke Hales, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Ms. Hales.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to TD Bank Group's Third Quarter 2025 Results Presentation.
We will begin today's presentation with remarks from Raymond Chun, the bank's CEO; followed by Leo Salom, President and CEO, TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank; after which Kelvin Tran, the bank's CFO, will present our third quarter operating results. Ajai Bambawale, Chief Risk Officer, will then offer comments on credit quality, after which we will invite questions from prequalified analysts and investors on the phone.
Also present today to answer your questions are Sona Mehta, Group Head, Canadian Personal Banking; Barbara Hooper, Group Head, Canadian Business Banking; Tim Wiggan, Group Head, Wholesale Banking, and President and CEO, TD Securities; and Paul Clark, Senior Executive Vice President, Wealth Management.
Please turn to Slide 2. Our comments during this call may contain forward-looking statements, which involve assumptions and have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially. I would also remind listeners that the bank uses non-GAAP financial measures to arrive at adjusted results. The bank believes that adjusted results provide readers with a better understanding of how management views the bank's performance. Ray, Leo and Kelvin will be referring to adjusted results in their remarks. Additional information about non-GAAP measures and material factors and assumptions is available in our Q3 2025 report to shareholders.
With that, let me turn the presentation over to Ray.
Thank you, Brooke, and good morning, everyone. We had another strong quarter, which I'm looking forward to discussing in a minute, but first, I'd like to share my thoughts on the external environment.
Global trade dynamics continue to be fluid. It was encouraging last week to hear the Prime Minister and President are intensifying their efforts to resolve ongoing trade challenges. However, there is still much work ahead with CUSMA or USMCA renegotiation set for next year. While Canadian companies have benefited from that trade agreement tariffs and especially sector-specific tariffs, create business uncertainty and economic distortions with significant impacts to the most exposed sectors. Despite this, the Canadian and U.S. economies have shown resilience, though momentum has slowed. These remain early days. It will likely be a long road before the full impact of tariffs is well understood. This is a time for bold, decisive leadership that unlocks Canada's economic potential and strengthens our productivity and resilience.
I'm encouraged by the federal government's focus on removing internal trade barriers, catalyzing major projects in partnership with indigenous peoples and diversifying export markets. This moment is an opportunity to build stronger, more resilient economies. At TD, we stand ready to meet that moment and work with governments and private sectors to strengthen communities across our footprint. And no matter how the external environment evolves, we'll be there to support our clients. It's a privilege to serve over 28 million households and businesses, and we will continue working hard every day to understand their needs and help them achieve their goals. With that, let's turn to the next slide.
With 3 quarters of the year done, I am pleased with what we have achieved. We continue to act decisively to support TD's future. Our momentum continued this quarter. With TD's announcement of a strategic relationship between Fiserv and TD Merchant Solutions. This will simplify TD's portfolio and reduce costs, improving the bank's financial performance over time. It will also elevate the experience for our Canadian business banking clients delivering best-in-class solutions.
We have continued to identify opportunities to innovate, to drive efficiency and operational excellence. Kelvin will provide more details on our efforts to structurally reduce costs across the bank in his remarks. As you know, the bank will host an Investor Day on September 29. We are very excited to share TD strategy and medium-term outlook with all of you next month.
Before I turn to Q3 results, I wanted to personally thank Alan MacGibbon, for his leadership and dedication to the bank. TD and I have greatly benefited from his many contributions and keen insights.
I also want to congratulate John MacIntyre, who will become the Chair of TD's Board of Directors effective Monday. John's deep financial expertise will help him guide our Board in the coming years. He will continue to be invaluable to me and my leadership team as we work to deliver on our strategy and drive long-term value.
Please turn to Slide 4. In Q3, the bank delivered a strong quarter with earnings of $3.9 billion and EPS of $2.20. We saw robust fee and trading income in our markets driven businesses and volume growth year-over-year in Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking.
TD delivered positive operating leverage this quarter, reflecting strong revenue growth that offset elevated expenses driven by governance and control costs and investments to drive business growth. Impaired PCLs decreased quarter-over-quarter, reflecting strong credit performance, and we added to our performing reserves for policy and trade uncertainty, taking a prudent approach with almost $600 million in reserves added year-to-date. Ajai will share more details shortly in his remarks.
The bank's Q3 CET1 ratio was 14.8%, reflecting strong capital generation in the quarter. As of quarter end, we were over halfway through our share buyback with 46 million shares repurchased for a total of over CAD 4 billion.
Please turn to Slide 5. In Q3, we demonstrated disciplined execution across our businesses. In Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking, we delivered a strong quarter with record revenue, earnings, deposits and loan volumes. RESL volumes surpassed $400 billion, driven by strong performance across our distribution channels.
We continue to deliver robust loan growth in cards. In this quarter, cards acquisition was the highest it's been in almost a decade. In the Business Bank, loans were up 6% year-over-year, reflecting growth across our Commercial business. We also saw record retail originations in TD Auto Finance. We delivered continued momentum in U.S. retail with core loans up 2% year-over-year. U.S. bank card balances were up 12% year-over-year, reaching a new milestone with USD 3 billion in balances.
In our U.S. Wealth business. Total client assets were up 12% year-over-year with mass affluent client assets up 26% year-over-year. This quarter, we made significant progress on our U.S. balance sheet restructuring. We completed the investment portfolio repositioning announced last October and achieved our targeted 10% asset reduction. The bank also continued to prioritize and execute on our AML remediation. Leo will provide more details in his remarks.
In Wealth Management and Insurance, we delivered record earnings and assets in Wealth and strong underlying business performance in Insurance. TD Asset Management won key institutional mandates globally and domestically, and continue to take share in its growing ETF franchise. We had a strong quarter in direct investing with trades per day up 18% year-over-year as we continued to gain traction in partial shares in our Active Trader platform. TD Insurance delivered strong premium growth year-over-year and continued to enhance its client acquisition strategies.
In Wholesale Banking, we continue to demonstrate the power of our broader platform, delivering over $2 billion in revenue for the third consecutive quarter. We are seeing broad-based revenue growth as market volatility normalizes in our capital markets and advisory businesses accelerate.
Please turn to Slide 6. This quarter, we launched TD AI Prism, a significant step forward in our effort to harness the power of AI. TD AI Prism is designed to deliver greater client personalization through accelerated AI-driven insights and support client services and growth.
And in TD Securities, we launched a Virtual AI Assistant, which queries our equity research library and synthesizes about 8,500 proprietary research reports, covering nearly 1,300 companies in seconds. This tool enhances the productivity and effectiveness of our front office institutional sales, trading and research professionals, enabling them to answer client inquiries with speed.
We continue to invest in enabling capabilities such as trusted data and AI. We recognize that leadership in digital and mobile is absolutely critical. We are looking forward to sharing more about our strategies and investments in these areas at our Investor Day next month.
Please turn to Slide 7. So before I turn it over to Leo, I want to thank our colleagues across the bank. Every day, you are working to deliver for our clients, drive shareholder value and build TD's future. Thank you for all that you do. With that, Leo, over to you.
Thank you, Ray, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 8. We've continued to make progress on our top priority, the U.S. AML Remediation Program. And we've now completed a series of important milestones. We have a strong AML leadership team in seat, we've implemented tactical risk reduction measures, we've improved our investigative capabilities, we've launched a new transaction monitoring process and platform, we've deployed all planned scenarios to-date on that new environment and are prepared to continuously add and make changes to meet emerging risks and trends.
This quarter, we deployed our first machine learning models in our transaction monitoring environment. This tool will continue to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of our program allowing our AML team to focus their investigative expertise and intelligence.
In addition, we've built out our governance over new business initiatives, including the establishment of a new financial crimes risk management subcommittee, dedicated to the assessment and oversight of financial crime risk of new business products and services. We've also launched new focus training or the first and second lines of defense related to suspicious customer activity associated with certain commercial products and services, coupled with the targeted role-based training and the enhanced bank-wide training, which I spoke about in the past, we are continuously uplifting and developing the knowledge and capabilities of our colleagues across the bank to be an effective AML risk managers. At this point, we are where we thought we would be in our work and continue to expect that we will complete the majority of our management remediation actions by the end of calendar 2025.
However, as we have said before, significant work, including important milestones, will continue into calendar 2026 and 2027. I want to also clarify that when we say management remediation actions, we're referring to a broad set of actions that we believe need to be completed to strengthen our AML program. And as we have disclosed in our MD&A, these actions include activities such as design, documentation, data preparation, systems, implementation of controls, testing and more.
Finally, as we have noted previously and is customary for remediations of this nature, our U.S. AML remediation work is subject to ongoing review by the monitor and acceptance by our regulators, the DOJ and FinCEN.
Now I'd like to give you an update on our balance sheet restructuring activities. Please turn to Slide 9. As you know, this effort has two critical objectives: first, to strictly comply with and maintain a buffer to the asset limitation, and second, to ensure that we can continue to serve our clients and communities as their needs evolve. We made meaningful progress against our objectives this quarter.
At the end of the fiscal quarter, total assets were USD 386 billion, reflecting the deployment of proceeds from the loan sales to pay down bank borrowings. I remain confident that we will largely complete the loan sales we identified last October by the end of the fiscal year. And as we continue to focus on simplifying our business, we will be reducing identified additional loans over the course of fiscal 2026 and beyond. And with the execution of our loan reductions and paydown of short-term borrowings, we expect to modestly exceed the 10% asset reduction we guided to last October.
With this asset reduction, the U.S. Retail segment could grow core loans at a rate consistent with our historical performance through the medium term without breaching the asset limitation. And this is without taking into account any incremental capacity that could be created through sale of up to $40 billion in non-HQLA securities.
This quarter, we completed the investment portfolio repositioning program as well announced back in October. In total, we sold approximately $25 billion notional for an upfront loss of $1.3 billion pretax. These actions are expected to generate an NII benefit in fiscal 2025 of approximately $500 million pretax.
Collectively, these actions have enabled the U.S. Retail segment to improve return on equity, excluding Schwab, by 140 basis points since Q4 of 2024. We expect to continue to improve return on equity through the remainder of fiscal 2025 and into fiscal 2026.
With that, I'll turn it over to Kelvin.
Thank you, Leo. Please turn to Slide 10.
TD delivered a strong quarter. Total bank PTPP was up 13% year-over-year after removing the impact of the U.S. strategic card portfolio, FX and insurance service expenses. Revenue grew 10% year-over-year driven by higher fee income and trading-related revenue in our markets driven businesses and volume growth in Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking.
Expenses increased 13% year-over-year with approximately 1/4 of the growth driven by variable compensation, foreign exchange and the impact of the U.S. strategic card portfolio. Impaired PCLs declined quarter-over-quarter, reflecting strong credit performance. Performing provisions reflect additional overlays for policy and trade uncertainty.
Please turn to Slide 11. As you know, we are undertaking restructuring program to reduce structural costs and create capacity to invest to build the bank of the future. We expect to incur total restructuring charges of $600 million to $700 million pretax over several quarters.
In Q3, we incurred restructuring charges of $333 million pretax. The restructuring program is expected to generate savings of approximately $100 million pretax in fiscal 2025, and annual run rate savings of $550 million to $650 million pretax. Cost savings will be driven by workforce and real estate optimization, asset write-offs and business wind down and exit as part of the strategic review. We continue to expect fiscal 2025 expense growth, assuming fiscal 2024 levels of variable compensation, FX and the U.S. strategic cards portfolio to be at the upper end of the 5% to 7% range, reflecting investments in governance and control and investments supporting business growth, net of expected productivity and restructuring savings.
We have delivered strong results year-to-date, and we are evaluating opportunities to further accelerate investments in our business to drive future growth. We look forward to sharing more at our upcoming Investor Day.
Please turn to Slide 12. Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking delivered a strong quarter with record revenue, earnings, deposits and loan volumes. Average deposits rose 4% year-over-year, reflecting 4% growth in personal deposits and 6% growth in business deposits. Average loan volumes rose 4% year-over-year with 3% growth in personal volumes and 6% growth in business volumes.
This quarter, housing market activity improved compared to the prior quarter, and our RESL strategy delivered both sequential volume growth and margin expansion in competitive markets. Net interest margin was 2.83%, up 1 basis point quarter-over-quarter, primarily driven by higher loan and deposit margin. As we look forward to Q4, we again expect NIM to be relatively stable. Expenses increased, reflecting higher technology spend and other operating expenses.
Please turn to Slide 13. U.S. Retail sustained business momentum and made significant progress on balance sheet restructuring. Deposits, excluding sweeps, were stable year-over-year, and were up 2%, excluding targeted run-off in our government banking business. Core loans grew 2% year-over-year, reflecting continued strength in bank card, home equity, middle market and small business.
Net interest margin was 3.19%, up 15 basis points quarter-over-quarter reflecting the impact of U.S. balance sheet restructuring activities, normalization of elevated liquidity levels and higher deposit margins. As we look forward to Q4, we expect NIM to moderately expand.
Expenses increased USD 199 million or 13% year-over-year, reflecting higher governance and control investments including cost of USD 157 million for U.S. BSA/AML remediation this quarter and higher employee-related expenses. While investments will fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter, we continue to expect U.S. BSA/AML remediation and related governance and control investments of approximately USD 500 million pretax in fiscal 2025. We expect similar investments in fiscal 2026.
Overall, U.S. Retail expense growth is expected to be in the mid-single-digit range in fiscal 2026. We remain focused on productivity initiatives to help fund investments in our core franchise.
Please turn to Slide 14. Wealth Management and Insurance delivered strong underlying business performance. In Wealth Management, market appreciation, coupled with strong account origination drove record assets this quarter. Direct Investing had a particularly strong quarter. We saw a significant increase in trading volumes led by our active trader clients with volumes up 23% year-over-year and increased deposits. We have continued to invest in our insurance business.
This quarter, while lower cat activity provided a benefit, the performance underscores the strength of our business and the ability to deliver profitable growth. Expenses increased this quarter, reflecting higher variable compensation commensurate with higher revenues and increased technology investments.
Please turn to Slide 15. Wholesale Banking delivered a strong quarter driven by broad-based revenue growth across Global Markets and Corporate and Investment Banking and our pipeline of future deals remains robust. We continue to demonstrate the industrial logic of the TD Cowen acquisition. Expenses increased, reflecting higher technology, front office costs, variable compensation and spend supporting regulatory and business projects.
Please turn to Slide 16. Corporate net loss for the quarter was $164 million a smaller loss than the same quarter last year, reflecting higher revenue from treasury and balance sheet activities, partially offset by higher net corporate expenses, which were primarily driven by higher governance and control costs.
Please turn to Slide 17. The common equity Tier 1 ratio ended the quarter at 14.8% down 5 basis points sequentially. We delivered strong internal capital generation this quarter. The bank repurchased 16 million common shares under its share buyback program in Q3 which reduced CET1 by 25 basis points. Our average LCR for the quarter was 138%. The bank is now operating at normalized liquidity levels.
With that, Ajai, over to you.
Thank you, Kelvin, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 18.
Gross impaired loan formations were 26 basis points, an increase of 5 basis points of $402 million quarter-over-quarter. The increase was largely recorded in the Wholesale Banking and U.S. Commercial Lending portfolios related to a small number of borrowers across a number of industries.
Please turn to Slide 19. Gross impaired loans increased $468 million quarter-over-quarter to $5.33 billion or 56 basis points. The increase was largely reflected in the Wholesale Banking and U.S. Commercial Lending portfolios.
Please turn to Slide 20. Recall that our presentation reports PCL ratios, both gross and net of the partner share of the U.S. strategic card PCLs. We remind you that U.S. card PCLs recorded in the Corporate segment are fully absorbed by our partners and do not impact the bank's net income.
The bank's provision for credit losses decreased $370 million or 17 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 41 basis points. The decrease was recorded broadly across the Canadian and U.S. consumer and business and government lending portfolios and reflective of strong underlying credit performance and a smaller current quarter performing build.
Please turn to Slide 21. Impaired PCLs were $904 million, a decrease of $42 million quarter-over-quarter, driven by the Canadian Personal and Commercial segment. Performing PCL was $67 million, a decrease of $328 million quarter-over-quarter. The decrease reflects a smaller current quarter build for policy and trade uncertainty.
Please turn to Slide 22. The allowance for credit losses was $9.7 billion, an increase of $116 million quarter-over-quarter, reflecting additional performing reserves relating to policy and trade uncertainty and higher impaired allowance associated with a few impairments in the Wholesale Lending portfolio.
Now in summary, the bank exhibited continued strong credit performance this quarter evidenced by a sequential reduction in impaired PCLs. While underlying credit performance remains resilient, we've conducted a further review of our lending portfolios considering ongoing policy and trade-related risks and have added incremental reserves this quarter.
In aggregate, our policy and trade-related reserves are now approximately $600 million, and we are prudently reserved for dynamic economic environment. While there are many potential scenarios that could play out in terms of the economic trajectory and credit performance, I expect fiscal 2025 PCL results to fall within the range of 45 to 55 basis points I offered at the start of the year.
Looking forward, TD is well positioned to manage through this period of uncertainty considering our prudent provisioning, broad diversification across products and geographies, our strong capital position, and our through-the-cycle underwriting standards that have served us well through challenging conditions in the past.
With that, operator, we are now ready to begin the Q&A session.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from John Aiken from Jefferies.
2. Question Answer
Leo, thanks for the update in terms of the AML remediation, the balance sheet restructuring. A question for you, though. In your prepared commentary, you talked about the lending portfolio could grow over the next couple of years without reaching the restriction. Not putting too fine a point on this, but are we expecting to see an inflection point at some point in 2026 and actually start to see the loan balances grow in the U.S. portfolio?
John, thanks for the question. Just to break it down, we did provide this disclosure. We've already reduced the overall balance sheet by about $17 billion. We've got an additional $18 billion on a spot basis that we've identified for runoff and/or selective repricing.
So that will be largely the work that we'll be doing over the next few quarters into 2026. I would expect that you'll still see from a headline standpoint that we'll see some contraction in the book through most of 2026 with an inflection point towards the end of the year. The areas where we are experiencing really good strong growth and Kelvin highlighted some of these.
In our bank card business, I'm really pleased we've been consistently delivering double-digit growth in terms of overall credit card proprietary growth. Likewise, we saw home equity balances grow by 9%. So solid performance there.
And even in the Commercial segment, which is given the uncertainty in the marketplace has been experiencing a bit of a wait-and-see sort of dynamic. We're seeing decent growth there. Small business was up 5%, our mid-market and specialty businesses were up 6%. So I think we're seeing the core underlying growth taking place. But to your point, we'll still have a runoff scenario for the better part of 2026 as we try to get to the fighting weight size for the U.S. business.
The next question is from Gabriel Dechaine from National Bank Financial.
First question, just to follow up on that one. So you've -- the loans we're talking about, in the U.S., the exits, runoffs, $17 billion to date $18 billion, thanks for that number identified for similar treatment. Is that contemplated? And is that the full program as you see it now, because there's what you do this year? And then it sounds like more beyond or beyond 2026 or whatever? Is this capturing all that outlook?
Thanks for the question, Gabe. I'd say that is the entirety of the program. That reflects not only what we announced back in October, but it also includes the product of the strategic reviews that we've conducted over the past 2 quarters.
Okay. Great. And just from a modeling standpoint, and I know these aren't all homogeneous portfolios, but when you choose to exit them, ROE is the ultimate deciding factor, but risk is another. So are these going -- in totality, are these going to cause your margins to go up or down and then your risk to go up or down, like just the nature of these portfolios. I know the correspondent mortgage would probably be low margin, low loan loss, but maybe the rest of program has different characteristics?
No, Gabe, that's exactly right. I'd say the 2 primary criteria. One obviously is we looked at portfolios that were not accretive to return on equity. And so making sure that the portfolio is profitable and is hurtling was criteria number one. Number two was, is it core to the franchise? Are they -- are we lending to clients that -- where we are able to serve them completely as opposed to just a stand-alone lending relationship and all the portfolios that we've chosen as part of this exercise fall in that category.
Okay. Next question is on expenses, expense management. So just so I'm crystal clear, the -- I mean I should know this now, but the USD 500 million of AML remediation costs, the direct stuff, that's in the U.S. P&C segment, correct?
Correct.
Okay. My hopefully, more intelligent question is, are there additional indirect costs that are I mean, seemingly tied to this issue as well? Because in Wholesale Banking, I see good revenue growth, but then expenses were up more spend to supporting regulatory and business projects. And then in the Corporate segment, sounded like governance and control costs were noted. I'm just wondering if there's additional inflationary pressures that are starting to affect other segments.
Gabe, it's Kelvin. Why don't I take that first. Yes. So overall, the majority of the year-over-year expense growth is governance and control related. You've already know that part of that is in Leo's business, and we've also taken this opportunity to uplift or uplift our governance and control cost across the bank where we see feasible. And so maybe I'll pass it onto Ajai just to give you a few examples of those. And then to Tim on the investment that he's making in his business.
Yes. So I'd say with respect to second-line risk functions that are under my purview. The main area we're investing in is AML. So not just U.S. AML, but we're very much investing in enterprise AML as well. And as I've said on earlier calls, there are other risk programs that we're investing in. A good example of that is fraud. Another good example is Cyber. Compliance is the third example I would share with you. So we are investing in other risk programs as well.
And Gabe, from a wholesale perspective, you mentioned the revenue. We are aggressively scaling our wholesale business. So as you've seen, in this quarter, we did $2 billion of revenue. And the way I would describe that, we essentially matched Q2 in revenue, which included the $184 million from Schwab that we disclosed. So that involves investment across global markets, capital markets as well as investment banking.
But to follow on Ajai's point, we also need to make foundational investment in our risk and control platform to allow us to scale within risk appetite and properly manage our risk. But I think we are well on track with our stated goals and the results are showing that our strategy has playing out.
I'm sure we'll dive into that in greater detail on the September in a month or so. Last one, buyback, the pace -- I mean, I know there's the number of shares and the dollar amount, the stock price has gone up since you announced the buyback program. So -- but if I look at the number of shares, it was 30-some-odd million in the last quarter, 15 million or so this quarter, unless I'm mistaken. Are you -- you're still committed to the full USD 8 billion amount?
Thanks for the question, Gabe. It's Ray. And yes, the simple answer is, yes. We are still looking to deploy about $8 billion from the Schwab sale proceeds for our current NCIB. And as you said, I mean we did -- we've made good progress this quarter. We bought back 16 million shares. We're at about 46 million shares that we bought back since we announced the program of $4 billion through quarter end.
And we'd just note that the pace of the buyback will depend on some of the market conditions. And as you saw and noted, we accelerated some of that repurchase in Q2 when we saw the share price dip. But we are committed to completing the $8 billion buyback that we announced.
The next question is from Matthew Lee from Canaccord Genuity.
Maybe just on the capital market side, activity finally seems to be picking up on the C&IB front. How does the addition of an integration of Cowen improved your approach to winning investment banking mandates, particularly in the U.S? And then should we expect capital markets to be a bigger growth driver for you this cycle than maybe how TD has looked in the past?
Yes. Thanks very much for the question. I would just say you should absolutely expect continued growth in capital markets. To give you a longer-term view of revenue, I'll just take you back to fiscal 2022. So that was the last full fiscal year prior to the TD Cowen acquisition, where we were doing on a quarterly basis, about $1.2 billion of revenue.
In Q4, we guided to an expectation that we could take that to $1.8 billion per quarter in this fiscal year. And quarter-to-date, as you've seen, we're actually coming in at $2 billion. And I would say, much like you've seen from other banks, over the course of the last few months, the first half of the year was about monetizing volatility, which I think we did very well.
But as we look at Q3, we've had a meaningful pickup in CIB. And within that, you would have obviously advisory equity capital markets for us specifically is a much bigger contributor and a lot of that is just as a result of the mix and being more exposed to U.S. equity capital markets activity. We also saw leverage finance pickup. So overall, as I said earlier, we are seeing the benefits of the broader platform and continuing to scale and invest to become a top 10 North American dealer.
All right. And as a follow-up, any industries in particular, are you starting to see some excitement in terms of equity and advisory?
It's actually fairly broad-based. So I would call out our biotech franchise has been a big contributor, our energy infrastructure, communication, media, telecom. So I would really suggest to you that the shape of this quarter is very well diversified. And even although we had outsized global markets activity in the first half when you normalize for Schwab, the sequential revenue on the market side was actually fairly flat but the meaningful delta, again, was in advisory and capital markets and fairly well diversified, which obviously is encouraging for us.
The next question is from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.
I guess just a few questions around expenses. And maybe, Leo, with you on the U.S. side. Just making sure I'm hearing you correctly. There's another, I guess, $18 billion of loans that are going to run off next year. Expense growth is going to be mid-single digits in the U.S. segment.
All of that obviously speaks to some version of negative operating leverage in that business for next year as well. And sorry if I missed it, but remind us, I feel like the control costs, AML costs were in the run rate this year. So when you think about just the drivers of expense growth relative to kind of the balance sheet runoff that's taking place, how should we think about that in terms of just the U.S. segment profitability looking out next year?
Yes. Ebrahim, good to hear from you. Maybe if I could just frame first expenses, and then I'll come back to sort of overall profitability. From an expense standpoint, as Kelvin guided, we are confident with our spend pattern against the AML program. So we will come in at the $0.5 billion number for the 2025 year.
And we believe that, that number will look similar in 2026. So I think we've got some degree of consistency there. I think from an expense standpoint, I would expect the fourth quarter just in terms of where we'll land, to be somewhat similar in terms of the absolute level of expense that we saw in the third quarter, and that reflects the slightly higher AML spend pattern just in terms of the calendarization from the first half of the year to the second half of the year, and that number, obviously, in any one given quarter could bump around.
I think the piece that we did share with you is that we are guiding to a mid-single-digit expense growth for 2026. And what that reflects is that while we still will have elevated remediation expenses, somewhat in line with what we've seen in 2025, you'll start seeing the benefit of the productivity efforts that we've announced in previous calls, and just the deliberateness around the choices that we're making.
Productivity is important because we want to continue to not only remediate but also invest in the franchise in those areas that we think have significant growth. To your point, with regards to overall profitability, we still believe that between the work that we've done on the bond repositioning, the tractor on rate versus off-rate profile, the work that we've done to reduce excess liquidity, notwithstanding that we're going to have some headwinds related to the runoff of the $18 billion that we'll still have a strong revenue dynamic in 2026.
And that, coupled with the disciplined profile and expenses would lead us to a year of NIAT growth, and we'll provide a little bit more texture and guidance during the Investor Day call in late September. But long-winded way of saying, I'm still constructive with regards to the outlook for 2026.
That's helpful, Leo. And I think if I heard correctly, you said you expect to have all the work done by the end of the year as far as the AML remediation stuff is concerned? And if that is, in fact, the case, my understanding of kind of how the U.S. regulators work is, you've got sort of [DUCs] lined up. They may observe this for 1 year or 2 years, 3 years, whatever it is.
But if you are done by the end of the year and if there's no breakage over the next year or 2, is it -- I'm just wondering the time line that you had initially put out going to '28. Is there -- how do you think about -- or how should we think about the removal of that asset cap during that process once things are done and the subsequent 12 to 24 months? Like if you could share your perspective on how shareholders to think about that?
Yes. So what I would say Ebrahim, let's just be a little bit more precise. And what we've said is that we think that the majority of our management actions, which is the first stage of the remediation effort. In other words, that -- that we can control. So the design of our programs, the documentation of the policies, the implementation of critical process changes, the data, the systems, those things that are foundational to a good program. We believe the majority will be completed by the end of 2025. But I've been very clear that some longer-tail items do stretch into 2026 and 2027. So the program doesn't entirely complete in 2025.
I'd say the other point that I would clarify is once we complete a management action, there's a number of stages that we will still be subjected to. Internally, within the bank, we have an internal challenge process that both the first and second line will conduct. Then we subject all of our programs to internal audits validation process.
The monitor will provide their governance oversight. And then finally, the regulator will look for a period of sustainability to make sure that the program is, in fact, living up to expectations. So I think what we can control, I feel quite comfortable with the progress we're making on the actual remediation plan. But I just want to be a little careful about the timing as to an asset cap or any -- we really don't control those items. What we want to do is make sure that we build a very strong program as quickly and as comprehensively as possible.
The next question is from Sohrab Movahedi from BMO Capital Markets.
Okay. I wonder if I could just ask Tim a little bit more on Wholesale Bank. I think you mentioned, Tim, that there are some investments that are taking place to accommodate a top 10 type, I suppose, aspiration in North America. I see a big increase in, for example, full-time equivalent or employee count. Some of it, I suppose, is seasonal. But can I get a sense of as you think about whether you're trying to go, how much more investing and spending needs to take place? And when do we expect to see the fruits of that, so to speak, on a sustained basis?
Yes. So I would say -- thanks very much for the question. I would say with regard to FTEs, that is absolutely seasonal. So as you look out over the next year-over-year or over the medium term, we don't expect a material increase in our complement of FTEs. And I would say, just generally, we'll be able to share more color in terms of the shape of the investment profile at the Investor Day. But you're really seeing all elements of expense hitting in the current year.
And so to give you tangible examples, our convertible platform didn't exist a year ago and is a meaningful contributor to the league table rankings that you're seeing in equity and equity linked that requires investment. We've been quite open that we are expanding our U.S. Prime business. You're seeing growth in Prime overall, 20% plus, but more to come as we roll out incremental strategies. So that's hitting.
The employees that we've added, which again, I would say, on a net-net basis are neutral, our subject matter expertise and leaders in their field. But as you know, there's a J-curve there. And then finally, all of this has to happen within our risk appetite. And so there's a material investment in our risk and control platform, and we're a year into a 2- or 3-year program on that upfront. So essentially, over the medium term, as revenue growth continues and those expenses normalize, I'm confident that we'll hit our targets that we'll speak more about next month.
Okay, Tim, and I appreciate that. And I'm sure you're going to give us more details, I guess, next month, but I guess, worth to try. As you go, as you make this progress towards your, let's call it, 3-year plan, is there an anticipation that your risk-weighted assets here should then continue to grow at some sort of a rate? And what sort of an ROE target do they have on your back?
Yes. So maybe I would take you back to pre-Cowen acquisition because obviously prior to this substantial investment, we were generating 13% ROE and efficiency ratios in the low 60s. So this is how we run the business. But as you well know, generally, it takes 3 to 5 years to build a world-class platform, and that's what we're doing.
With regard to risk-weighted assets, a big part of our objective is around the denominator and how we're managing capital. So the first part of that process is to make sure you have the right tools to deepen your client relationships and drive RAROC with your clients.
The second part is delivering, which I think we're doing. But to be clear, we have an exercise that basically looks at the loan book and looks for opportunity to upscale and go deeper and reallocate where necessary now that we have a platform in place to monetize more effectively against that loan book or RWA.
Okay. Look forward to the 29th of September.
The next question is from Doug Young from Desjardin Capital Markets.
I guess for Ajai. 2 kind of things of credit, higher gross impaired loan formations in U.S. Commercial, I think you talked about. But then in the U.S., there's a release of performing loan allowances. And so I'm just trying to connect the 2 and maybe walk through where the release came from?
And then if you can -- I think you said about $600 million of expert credit judgment. I think it's in your performing loan allowances related to risks around trade policies. Can you put a little more meat around that? Like was that 0 last year? How has that evolved? And then I have a follow-up.
Yes. So again, there are multiple parts to your question. So let me try to answer each one of them. You mentioned higher GILs. And yes, we saw higher GILs. Some of it came from wholesale and some from the U.S.
In wholesale, there were really 4 borrowers. One was in telecom and cable, 2 in professional and other and 1 in transportation. There were a few impairments on the U.S. Commercial book. 3 of them were CRE, and I would call those pretty much expected. And there was 1 in C&I in the industrial construction and trade contractor space. I don't necessarily view this as a trend, but you're right in pointing out the numbers, the GIL numbers did go up.
If I look at U.S. impaired PCLs. U.S. impaired PCLs went up because of these impairments and the related reserves. And then you're correct in pointing out that on a performing basis, performing PCLs in the U.S. came down and there was, I would call it, a small release. And the main driver of that small release was the macro -- change in the macro environment in the United States. And my final comment on that would be that I have seen this variation quarter-over-quarter. And it's not every quarter that the impaireds in the segments would move in the same line. So it's not an unexpected event from my perspective.
And let me turn to the $600 million. So we've actually built $600 million over 3 quarters, okay. We started building in Q1, then we had the big build in Q2. What we did this quarter was we actually went and refreshed all the work we did last quarter and went deep into understanding the borrowers that were most sensitive to tariffs.
And when we did this work, so that's non-retail, when we did this work, we looked at the potential impact on their financials, whether it was revenue or cost of goods sold. That gave us an idea of what potential migration should occur. Could it be one notch could it be two notches? And we use that potential migration to determine what the allowance would be. And this quarter, because that number was slightly higher, we took a little more against business and government lending.
What we've also done is we've been looking at the consumer portfolios over these 3 quarters. We're looking at the potential impact of inflation and higher rates on consumers. So this quarter, we actually added a little bit for the consumer books as well. So if I take that total $600 million, approximately $410 million is for business and government and $190 million is for the consumer sector. So again, I'll just end by saying I'm very comfortable with where we are at. We've done a lot of work to determine what the overlay should be. I think you know this uncertainty still exists, and it's going to continue for a while, but I feel we're well positioned. We're sitting at 103 bps reserves, and I'll leave it at that.
And so just to follow up on that, the $600 million and the $410 million, $190 million. How much of that is Canada? How much is -- I would assume most of this is Canada, but...
Yes, we haven't disclosed that, but I can tell you a fair bit is Canadian P&C, and the balance is -- U.S. based, some for U.S. retail, and there's some for Wholesale.
And then just in a real life example, like what is that $600 million. So if we had a breakdown in USMCA. Like that is what this is there for, it doesn't cover, obviously, everything that would happen, but it provides you a cushion in anticipation of that, is that how to think of that $600 million?
Well, this is -- we've made certain tariff assumptions for Canada and the United States. This is really taking those tariff assumptions and running it through our portfolio to determine what incremental migration or results would be required.
Now I want to be very clear that we've made certain assumptions. To the extent the tariffs turn out to be higher than the assumptions we've made, that means we have to build more reserves, to the extent that tariffs turn out to be lower than what we've assumed, that means we would be releasing. And to the extent that tariffs are as assumed, then as that book migrates, we built the reserves. We're going to draw down on those reserves.
Yes. Okay. And then just second, Leo, you talked about ROE improvement in the U.S. I guess it's kind of -- there's 2 parts of the equation. Obviously, the numerator and the denominator. How much of this is driven numerator versus denominator? And then can you give a kind of context to where you started and where you think you can get to with that U.S. ROE?
Well, Doug, thanks for the question. I -- we will be providing more clarity with regards to return on equity target at the Investor Day. So I won't front run that discussion at this point. But it's been a combination of both, right? So if you look at -- we are clearly contracting portions of the portfolio that we believe are not accretive to our return on equity profile. But the reality is a lot of the benefit because that RWA reduction is still funneling through the balance sheet. So where you're seeing the improvement right now has been the improvement in overall operating results. We've had 3 sequential quarters of NIAT growth from fourth quarter of last year to present. And that has allowed us to be able to post cumulatively 140 basis points worth of improvement when you exclude Schwab.
So I think we're executing as expected at this point. I hope that you also appreciate the fact that you're beginning to get a sense based on the performance that we posted this quarter at $695 million in earnings. What the outlook could look like for 2026 as well. So I think right now, it's been an earnings story with -- aided by the fact that we are selectively making some changes on the balance sheet side, you'll see more of that balance sheet impact next year as we complete the overall U.S. balance sheet restructuring.
The next question is from Shalabh Garg from Veritas Investment Research.
I'm referring to Slide 42. Now there was a sharp year-over-year improvement in the Canadian Commercial credit performance, whereas U.S. was a bit elevated. Now when I look at the size of the loan portfolios, they look pretty similar in terms of size and mix. Now does this highlight a difference in underwriting standards? Or is it more of a function of balance sheet positioning in the U.S. and the relative size in the 2 countries?
Yes. So let me -- it's Ajai. So let me explain the difference between what happened with Canadian P&C. And in U.S. Retail. And I wouldn't call it a difference in underwriting standards. The underwriting standards are pretty consistent across the board. And underwriting standards are not something that we change. So the underwriting standards are consistent.
What you see on Canadian P&C is you see the numbers are down $159 million. Impaireds are down 52% and performing is down 107%. U.S. retail is also down. So directionally, PCLs are -- it's the same. Okay. But performing is down $149 million in the U.S. The divergence has come from impaired. Okay? And impaired PCL is slightly up. It's up $21 million. And the reason impaired PCL is up is we did see some impairments. As I mentioned, there were 3 in CRE, 2 in office -- 1 in office, 1 in retail, 1 multifamily, and then there was 1 in C&I.
So again, I'd say the results are generally consistent. I won't call the underwriting standards different. But in any given quarter, you can see some variation across products, across segments. And in fact, CRE, I think I've said on previous calls, this whole CRE situation in the U.S. is still playing out and we're very well reserved for that situation. So I'll leave it at that.
The next question is from Paul Holden from CBIC.
I'll try to keep it quick in the interest of time. So a question for Sona. Kind of 2-part question, but trying to get to the major point, which is sort of maybe NII outlook on Canadian P&C banking. So if I look at loan growth in the quarter, I see residential mortgage is down a bit, but then strong growth in what I think are higher-margin products, HELOC, cards. So maybe you can talk through that a bit in terms of the outlook and why residential mortgage is down in the quarter, but good growth on the other side?
And then the second part of the question is really on deposit mix. I know in the past quarter, you've talked about benefit of GICs rolling off and demand deposits growing. Is that ongoing? And do you expect it to be ongoing? And then again, that really leads to like sort of what's the NIM and NII outlook for the segment?
Sure. Thanks, Paul. So first, maybe on the loan side of the business. We've seen actually we're quite pleased with the quarter. We've seen strong sequential momentum in the RESL business, and I'm speaking here, Paul, to the aggregate of both mortgage and HELOC. So on an average basis, it's up 1% quarter-over-quarter and better than that on a spot basis. So we are seeing good growth both in that line as well as in the credit card business. So we've seen strong 7% year-over-year growth in the credit card business.
As I look at NIM and NII, obviously, there's a number of factors there, broadly, influencing both NIM and NII, things from tractors, which obviously confer a lot of stability to our large core deposit business as well as product mix and balance sheet mix.
So in the quarter, in particular, I think we have benefited from favorable deposit margins, including a mix impact. On the RESL side of the business, coupled with the sequential growth, we saw a good margin expansion. So we saw both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, better margins both on originations as well as the portfolio. So kind of a four peat for RESL.
And then the credit card business obviously is healthy from an NII, NIM perspective. So that may be the first part of the question. Hopefully, I've answered that for you.
On the deposit side of the business, also, I would say a strong quarter. So we've led both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter in personal deposits growth. And what we're seeing is a good growth shift positively to demand deposits. So that is also a positive momentum. So I think a number of factors coming together. We continue to guide to a relatively stable NIM heading into Q4, but we're pleased overall with a strong exit in Q3 with good momentum.
Okay. And I guess really where I'm going with that is I get the guidance is for stable. But if I put all everything together, it certainly benefited the quarter and would suggest to me it probably benefit Q4, but you're guiding to stable. So are you just being conservative in that guidance? Or do you expect a change in trend? Just again, just trying to square everything up here.
Yes. No, I think the guidance is sound, Paul. I think there's a number of factors. And so it's obviously a growth business. There's a lot of mix impacts and then the one piece that we hadn't spoken about like balance sheet mix also comes into play. So I think our guidance is the right one.
The next question is from Darko Mihelic from RBC Capital Markets.
I'll be really quick as well. Ajai, you gave great detail on the $600 million reserve. So maybe just to boil this down, I'd like to understand sort of what would it take to release them, right? Would it be the USMCA is left alone for example, would that be better than anticipated and cause a release of substantially those reserves? If tariffs equaled what Europe got, would that be better than what you've anticipated and released those reserves? Would those be 2 sort of outcomes that would result in substantially most of those reserves being released?
Yes. I think where you're going is the right way to think about it. I mean, we -- as I said, we made some assumptions of what migration would occur and there were underlying tariff assumptions. Naturally, if things settle, and the uncertainty reduces and there's more clarity around tariffs, and let's say the tariffs are lower, we would reassess that result. And if you have to release part of that reserve, we will.
At the same time, if there are changes in the USMCA that are negative, and they are higher than what we've assumed, then you should expect us to increase our reserves. And then the third point I made, and this is a really important point because we built the reserve. If the migration occurs, as we think it is, then we've already built the reserves. We're going to use those reserves.
So if you look ahead, and we are working -- still working on the guidance for next year, that will follow. But the way I look at it is, looking forward, I actually expect impaired PCLs to gradually rise from these levels. It's going to be gradual as the impact of tariff plays out. And then performing PCL depends on the drivers, okay. But to the extent that tariffs turn out more favorable, then I know there are other drivers. But yes, it's going to have a positive impact on performing. And you'll see lower performing next year. Hope that helps you, Darko?
Yes. It does. Yes.
There are no further questions registered. At this time, I will turn the call back to Mr. Raymond Chun.
Well, thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate as always the questions and your comments. And let me just wrap by saying that TD has delivered for its stakeholders in Q3, 10% revenue growth, positive operating leverage, strong credit performance. So on that note, we wish all of you a good long weekend. Look forward to speaking with all of you again real soon at our Investor Day on September 29. Thank you.
Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Toronto-Dominion Bank — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Ergebnis: Nettogewinn $3,9 Mrd.; EPS $2,20.
- Umsatz: Gesamtumsatz +10% YoY; PTPP (adjustiert) +13% YoY.
- CET1: Common Equity Tier 1 14,8% (−5 bp q/q).
- Reserven: Zusätzliche performing-Reserven ~ $600 Mio. YTD für Politik-/Handelsrisiken; ACL $9,7 Mrd.
- Kapitalrückkauf: 46 Mio. Aktien zurückgekauft (~CAD 4 Mrd.), NCIB‑Zusage für ~USD 8 Mrd. aus Schwab‑Verkauf.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Bilanzbereinigung: US‑Balance‑Sheet‑Programm läuft; ca. $17bn verkauft, weitere ~$18bn identifiziert; Ziel: >10% Asset‑Reduktion.
- Portfolioaktionen: Investment‑Repositionierung ~ $25bn notional, Vorsteuerverlust $1,3 Mrd., erwartet NII‑Benefit ≈ $500 Mio. in FY2025.
- Kontrollen & Technologie: Fortschritte bei AML‑Remediation (ML in Monitoring) und Investitionen in AI (TD AI Prism, Virtual AI Assistant) zur Effizienzsteigerung.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Restrukturierung: Gesamtkosten $600–700 Mio. pretax; Q3: $333 Mio.; erwartete jährliche Einsparungen $550–650 Mio. pretax.
- AML‑Kosten: ~USD 500 Mio. pretax in FY2025; ähnliches Niveau in FY2026 erwartet.
- Kreditkosten: PCL‑Erwartung FY2025: 45–55 bps; performing‑Reserven weiterhin als Puffer.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- US‑Runoff‑Timing: Management erwartet Kontraktion durch 2026 mit einem möglichen Inflection‑Point gegen Ende 2026.
- Umfang des Programms: Die identifizierten $17bn+$18bn stellen laut Management das gesamte derzeit geplante Programm dar.
- Regulatorische Unsicherheit: AML‑Remediation größtenteils bis Ende 2025 (Management‑Actions), aber Regulator/Monitor‑Prüfungen und Nachhaltigkeitsbeobachtung können bis 2026/27 dauern.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Starkes operatives Quartal mit Umsatzwachstum, positiver operativer Hebelwirkung und aktiver Kapitalallokation (Buybacks). Kurzfristig drücken AML‑Investitionen, Restrukturierungskosten und Reserven die Profitabilität; mittelfristig sollten Bilanzmaßnahmen, Kostenersparnisse und Portfolio‑Bereinigungen ROE und NII verbessern. Anleger sollten regulatorischen Zeitplan und Reserveentwicklung beobachten.
Finanzdaten von Toronto-Dominion Bank
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Apr '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 63.173 63.173 |
5 %
5 %
100 %
|
|
| - Zinsertrag | 34.721 34.721 |
10 %
10 %
55 %
|
|
| - Zinsunabhängige Erträge | 28.452 28.452 |
19 %
19 %
45 %
|
|
| Zinsaufwand | 49.123 49.123 |
19 %
19 %
78 %
|
|
| Nichtzinsaufwand | -40.640 -40.640 |
4 %
4 %
-64 %
|
|
| Risikovorsorge für Kredite | 3.993 3.993 |
16 %
16 %
6 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 14.328 14.328 |
15 %
15 %
23 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen CAD.
Nichts mehr verpassen! Wir senden Dir alle News zur Toronto-Dominion Bank-Aktie direkt und kostenlos in Deine Mailbox.
Auf Wunsch erhältst Du jeden Morgen pünktlich zum Frühstück eine E-Mail, die alle für Dich relevanten Aktien-News enthält.
Toronto-Dominion Bank Aktie News
Firmenprofil
Die Toronto-Dominion Bank ist in der Bereitstellung von Finanzprodukten und -dienstleistungen tätig. Sie ist in den folgenden Segmenten tätig: Kanadischer Einzelhandel, US-amerikanischer Einzelhandel und Großkundengeschäft. Das Segment des kanadischen Privatkundengeschäfts bietet verschiedene Finanzprodukte und -dienstleistungen sowie Telefon-, Internet- und mobile Bankdienstleistungen an. Das US-Retail-Segment bietet Bankdienstleistungen für Privat- und Geschäftskunden sowie Vermögensverwaltungsdienste in den Vereinigten Staaten an. Das Segment Wholesale Banking bietet Unternehmen, Regierungen und Institutionen auf den Finanzmärkten Kapitalmärkte, Investmentbanking, Firmenkundenbankprodukte und Investitionsbedarf an. Das Unternehmen wurde am 1. Februar 1955 gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Toronto, Kanada.
aktien.guide Premium
| Hauptsitz | Kanada |
| CEO | Mr. Chun |
| Mitarbeiter | 104.843 |
| Gegründet | 1955 |
| Webseite | www.td.com |


