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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 13,87 Bio. ¥ | Umsatz (TTM) = 8,31 Bio. ¥
Marktkapitalisierung = 13,87 Bio. ¥ | Umsatz erwartet = 8,62 Bio. ¥
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 13,07 Bio. ¥ | Umsatz (TTM) = 8,31 Bio. ¥
Enterprise Value = 13,07 Bio. ¥ | Umsatz erwartet = 8,62 Bio. ¥
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Tokio Marine Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
19 Analysten haben eine Tokio Marine Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
19 Analysten haben eine Tokio Marine Prognose abgegeben:
Beta Tokio Marine Events
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Tokio Marine — Q4 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good evening, and good afternoon to everyone. My name is Endo. Thank you very much for taking the time to join us today despite your busy schedule. As of this April, I took over the CFO role from my predecessor, Mr. Okada. As the new CFO, I intend to continue contributing to the enhancement of corporate value while placing great importance on dialogue with capital market participants. So I look forward to our continued relationship.
I would like to get right into the details, but before that, I will briefly explain how we are disclosing the financial results for this period.
As explained at the IFRS briefing held last September, Tokio Marine Holdings have transitioned its accounting standards to IFRS at the end of fiscal year '25, and we have revised the definitions of KPIs such as adjusted net income accordingly. Since this financial reporting timing is a transitional period, we will explain results for fiscal '25 using JGAAP-based accounting and figures according to old definitions to announce the fiscal '26 forecast, we will be using IFRS-based accounting and newly defined figures.
Additionally, we have revised our presentation material format. We have referenced materials from European peers who have already adopted IFRS, materials, which I believe you are all familiar with, with the aim of presenting our performance in a more simple and easy-to-understand manner. Detailed data is available in the Group Supplemental Data in Excel format available on our website, and we hope that you will find it useful.
Apologies for the lengthy introduction. Please turn to Page 1 of the material. Here, we are presenting our core KPIs, EPS and ROE. To allow you to assess our progress against the current midterm plan, we have included figures based on both IFRS and JGAAP. Regardless of the accounting standards used, steady profit growth, combined with the denominator effect from share buybacks has led to a robust increase in EPS. On the other hand, ROE currently stands at 13%, making it appear flattish. This is due to our definition of ROE. In reality, it is trending towards improvement.
Specifically, we are in the process of selling business-related equities, which have a lower ROR compared to our core insurance business and reinvesting the proceeds into businesses with higher ROR. In this process, since our definition of ROE excludes unrealized gains on equities from the denominator, so selling business-related equities, realizing their gains and converting them to cash increases capital or the denominator, which in turn puts downward pressure on ROE.
As mentioned earlier, profit, or the numerator of ROE calculation are growing steadily, but our current ROE appears to be flattish, though this is strictly a matter of definition as explained. What makes ROE, in content, are improving. Furthermore, while this mechanism will continue until fiscal '29 until we achieve 0 business-related equities, we hope you will understand that we are in the process of utilizing the risk released through the sales of equities to achieve further profit growth and enhance ROE.
Next, I will explain our performance for fiscal year '25. Please turn to Page 2. Regarding top line, as shown in the graph on the left, the group as a whole recorded plus 1% year-on-year growth. This is because life insurance premiums declined due to the impact of Anshin Life's additional block cession transaction executed in March 2026. On the other hand, regarding the top line of the P&C insurance business, International saw plus 6% year-on-year growth, while Japan P&C saw plus 3% year-on-year growth with both segments showing steady growth.
Next, regarding adjusted net profit. Our management places great emphasis on adjusted net income, excluding gains on the sales of business-related equities, which we regard as our core business profit. However, adjusted net profit shown in the middle graph amounted to JPY 711.6 billion, representing a 17% increase year-on-year due to factors such as benign natural catastrophes and decrease in capital losses in North American credit investments. The normalized figure, which excludes one-time impact is shown on the graph on the right.
The normalized figure, excluding one-time effect is shown in the graph as it stood at JPY 635.6 billion, a 6% decrease year-on-year and below the full year forecast announced in February. This is because there has been some progress in the lawsuit filed by our Australian branch regarding a claim for credit insurance related to Greensill bonds, and we have factored a loss into our fiscal '25 financial results.
To explain the background, Greensill went bankrupt in March of 2021. Subsequently, from October '21 through June '23, 10 insurance claims lawsuits were filed in Australian courts. In response, in April 2022, we notified the parties involved that the insurance contracts are invalid due to fraudulent misrepresentation and fraudulent breaches of disclosure and stated that we would appropriately assert our position through litigation. In fact, we have successfully carried out various initiatives such as gathering evidence to substantiate our position.
As part of the court proceedings required under Australian law, a court-sponsored mediation was recently held in which our company participated. During this process, we have been engaged in settlement negotiations with the insolvency administrator for Greensill Bank, one of the plaintiffs on terms that are consistent with our position and acceptable to us. Given these current circumstances, we have made an appropriate increase in reserves in our fiscal 2025 financial results. Excluding this factor, the bottom line for each business segment remained solid and results were generally in line with our full year forecast.
Next, let us look at the FY 2026 forecast. Please turn to Page 3. On the left, you see a metric labeled Total Business Volume. This consists of gross premiums written from our insurance business and revenue from our solutions business and can be said to represent the total value we provide to our customers. Regarding the figures for FY 2026, we plan to expand the volume of value provided across all businesses with an 8% year-on-year increase for the group as a whole.
Regarding adjusted net profit, as shown in the graph on the right, using the FY 2025 IFRS-based actual figure of JPY 881.5 billion as a baseline, we are projecting JPY 950 billion, representing an 8% increase.
Regarding the breakdown by business segment, in the International segment, there are factors that led to a decline in profit such as the reversal effects from the low incidence of natural disasters in FY 2025 as well as factors contributing to an increase in profit, such as the absence of the additional reserves set aside in FY 2025 related to Greensill litigation. As explained earlier, excluding these one-time factors, in other words, based on our underlying performance, we expect the growth driven by disciplined underwriting, the consolidation of bolt-on M&A deals executed last year and the positive impact of the VTN. As a result, we are aiming for 10% growth for the International segment as a whole.
As for Japan, starting in fiscal 2026, the Head of Domestic Operations will oversee both the non-life and life insurance business, so the segments have been consolidated. As for the figures, similar to the International segment, there are factors behind the decline in profit, such as the rebound effect from the low number of natural disasters in fiscal 2025 and a decrease in dividend income due to the accelerated sale of strategic equity holdings. However, this is expected to be offset by expanded underwriting in the non-life insurance business and auto rate increases, leading to a forecast of a flat year-on-year results.
Finally, I would like to discuss our capital strategy. Please turn to Page 4. Our view that the profit growth in our business and expanded shareholder returns should be aligned remains unchanged. In that context, I will explain dividends, which forms the foundation of our shareholder return. First, regarding the DPS for fiscal year 2025. Here, we use the 5-year average of JGAAP adjusted net income as the dividend resource and apply a 50% payout ratio since the actual results for FY '25 exceeded the forecast announced last November, we have adjusted the DPS accordingly, increasing it by JPY 7 from the figure announced last November to JPY 218.
Next, regarding FY '26 DPS, since we have transitioned to IFRS, the dividend resource will be the 3-year average of IFRS adjusted net income, as explained at the IFRS briefing last September. Furthermore, regarding the dividend payout ratio, while we had stated that we would review it in light of the transition to IFRS, we have concluded that we will maintain the principle of 50%.
On the other hand, regarding fiscal year '26, we believe it is a transitional period involving changes to accounting standards and definitions, and we felt it was important to prioritize continuity with previous practices. As a result, we have set the DPS at JPY 245, representing a JPY 27 increase and the DPS growth rate of 12%.
Next, regarding share buybacks. We view this as a flexible means of shareholder returns and implement them at comprehensively considering our capital levels, opportunities for business investment and increased risk-taking and market conditions. In addition to these factors, we have recently utilized share buybacks to boost EPS growth by 2%.
Furthermore, in March of this year, we announced a strategic alliance with Berkshire Hathaway and stated that we would reassess our approach to share buybacks to enhance the flexibility of our capital strategy. Against such a backdrop regarding fiscal year '26, we have concluded that the annual amount will be JPY 400 billion. This decision was made after comprehensively considering the fact that our current ESR remains at a robust level, the effect of boosting EPS growth, the current status of our M&A pipeline and the increased flexibility in capital strategy resulting from the partnership with Berkshire Hathaway.
Furthermore, while we have announced a share buyback of JPY 287.4 billion, the same amount as the third-party allotment to Berkshire to offset the dilution resulting from that transaction, we anticipate that additional share buybacks will be necessary to achieve our objectives due to the rise in our stock price. As this additional buyback is currently underway, we will take it into account in our shareholder returns for the second half of the fiscal year once the number of shares to be repurchased is finalized. In other words, I would like to note that this is not included in the JPY 400 billion mentioned earlier.
This concludes my presentation. Going forward, we intend to continue making steady efforts to execute our management strategy, improve both our EPS and ROE and meet the expectations of the capital markets. We would like to ask for your continued support. Thank you for listening.
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Tokio Marine — Q4 2026 Earnings Call
Tokio Marine — Q4 2026 Earnings Call
Tokio Marine: Solide Ergebnisentwicklung, aber bereinigtes Ergebnis durch Greensill‑Rückstellung belastet; Dividende und Aktienrückkäufe deutlich erhöht.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: Gruppenweit +1% YoY; International P&C +6%, Japan P&C +3%.
- Bereinigter Gewinn: JPY 711,6 Mrd. (+17% YoY) nach Management‑Definition.
- Normalisiert: JPY 635,6 Mrd. (−6% YoY), unter voller Jahresprognose wegen Greensill‑Rückstellung.
- ROE: Return on Equity (ROE) bei 13% — scheinbar flach wegen Bilanzdefinitionen und Verkauf von Unternehmensaktien.
- EPS: Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) steigt dank Profitwachstum und Rückkäufen (Rückkauf‑Effekt ~+2% auf EPS).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Accounting‑Übergang: Übergang zu International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) angekündigt; Berichterstattung für FY25 weiterhin in JGAAP (japanische Rechnungslegung), FY26 nach IFRS mit neuen KPI‑Definitionen.
- Portfolio‑Reallokation: Verkauf von geschäftsbezogenen Aktien zur Reallokation in Geschäftsbereiche mit höherer Rendite; Verkäufe drücken kurzfristig ROE aufgrund Definitionswahl.
- Kapitalpolitik: Beibehaltung einer soliden Kapitalbasis, stärkere Flexibilität durch Allianz mit Berkshire Hathaway; Dividendenpolitik und Rückkäufe sollen Profitwachstum begleiten.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- FY26 Ziel: Total Business Volume (Gesamtwert für Kunden) +8% YoY; Gruppen‑Adjusted Net Profit auf JPY 950 Mrd. (+8% vs. FY25 IFRS‑Basis JPY 881,5 Mrd.).
- Segmente: International +10% (diszipliniertes Underwriting, Bolt‑on‑M&A, Positive VTN‑Effekte); Japan konsolidiert Non‑Life/Life, erwartet insgesamt flach dank Gegenläufigkeiten.
- Aktionärsrückfluss: Dividende je Aktie (DPS) FY25 JPY 218; FY26 DPS JPY 245 (+12%); jährliche Rückkäufe geplant JPY 400 Mrd. plus bereits angekündigte Ausgleichsrückkäufe JPY 287,4 Mrd. und mögliche weitere Rückkäufe.
- Risiken: Greensill‑Rechtsfall, Übergang zu IFRS und volatile Effekte durch Aktienverkäufe bis FY29.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Aktionäre sehen höhere direkte Rückflüsse (DPS‑Anstieg, hohe Rückkäufe) und EPS‑Wachstum, doch das bereinigte operative Ergebnis ist kurzfristig durch Greensill‑Rückstellungen und den Accounting‑Übergang belastet; langfristig strebt Management höhere Renditen durch Reallokation und Disziplin beim Underwriting an.
Tokio Marine — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
As it is time, we would like to start the session. Thank you for joining us for the Tokio Marine Holdings IR briefing for the second half of FY '25 (sic) FY '26 in spite of your busy schedules. I'll be serving as the moderator. I am Mishikuroro, Head of Global Communications. Today's session is held in a hybrid format where participants are joining both in person and online. The moderator is giving announcements for the Japanese audience.
Let me introduce the executives joining us today. From Tokio Marine Holdings, Group CEO, Mr. Masahiro Koike; Vice President, Director, Group CFO, Mr. Kenji Okada; Vice President, Director, Co-Head of International Business, Mr. Kichiichiro Yamamoto; Managing Executive Officer, Group CSUO, Ms. Mika Nabeshima. From TMNF, President and CEO, Mr. Hiroaki Shirota; Senior Managing Director, Mr. Hiroshi Sakiyama; from Ahi Life, President, Mr. Shuji Asano will be joining. We will first start with an opening presentation by our Group CEO, Mr. Koike, using materials posted on our homepage, after which we will open the floor for questions. We are scheduled to end at 2:30 p.m. Japan time. Koike-san, you have the floor.
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you very much for joining Tokio Marine Group's business strategy meeting today. Today, following the outline on Page 2 on your material, I will spend approximately 30 minutes explaining Tokio Marine's management and business operations. After that, I would like to take questions and comments from all of you as long as time permits. Looking forward to this meeting.
Please turn to Slide #3. Six months ago, at our May IR briefing, I had the opportunity to greet you and share my commitment. It has now been 5 months since I assumed the role of Group CEO. During this time, I have been traveling extensive both domestically and internationally, striving to spend my time at the front lines, the very source of our company's value creation. Through Townhall meetings and other forums across various locations, I have engaged in dialogues with many employees, both domestically and internationally.
This aligns with the realization of our unique sustainability management as described on the slide, which starts with our employees, specifically, employees who are deeply committed to fulfilling our purpose of protecting customers and society in times of need serve as the starting point for all activities. Through providing high-quality products and services, we contribute to solving the challenges faced by our customers and society.
As a result of being of service, we ourselves achieve sustainable growth and deliver solid returns to our shareholders and all stakeholders. Since our founding, we have cherished this unique Tokio Marine value creation model. I strongly feel that momentum is high among our employees across all domains, domestic and overseas and solutions to continuously evolve this model, pass it on to future generations and deliver value to all stakeholders.
And after receiving feedback from our employees that are direct and sometimes very straightforward, but these voices help me to enhance and move Tokio Marine even further into the future. Now please turn to Page 4. So today, we have 2 key messages to share with you. The first is the robustness of EPS growth. Our track record over the past 5 years has been trending among the best globally and fiscal 2025 is keeping its underlying growth trend.
Furthermore, while some lines in international business centered on North America showed some signs of softening, they remain resilient. Japan P&C is also progressing steadily amid major industry-wide transformation. So each business continues with their strong performance. DPS will expand in line with this robust EPS growth, and this will remain unchanged even after the adoption of IFRS in fiscal '26.
The second point is ROE improvement. Currently, we are midway through our journey toward raising ROE to global peer level. After adopting IFRS, our ROE will stand at around 13% on an apple-to-apple basis with our peers. We will continue to strive to further enhance ROE through profit growth and disciplined capital policy. Within this context, our current TSR stands at 155%, providing ample firepower for growth investments or shareholder returns.
While we recently announced 2 bolt-on M&A deals, we have raised our annual share buyback program to JPY 240 billion after comprehensively reassessing factors such as the uplifting effect to EPS growth and other M&A deals in the pipeline.
Now let me move on to explaining the main points. Please turn to Page 5. So this slide shows our EPS growth track record. As you can see, our 5-year CAGR of 19.9% is among the world's best. Furthermore, as indicated in the lower right, our EPS growth volatility is also the lowest, demonstrating that we have been achieving stable growth.
Please turn to Page 6. Here, the right side of the slide shows our EPS growth plan compared to peers. Our plan of 8% or more is at competitive level with peers, and our current performance is also progressing steadily at 8.9% growth.
Now let's delve deeper into the drivers of our world-class EPS growth, which are the organic growth of our core business and our M&A activities. Please turn to Page 7. Our current profits are largely comprised of international business and Japan P&C business, and the underlying trend remains solid.
For fiscal '25, we expect results to largely align with our initial plans, and we continue to believe our midterm targets are achievable. Going into a bit more details, within the international business, while we see some impact from softening and changes in the operating environment, such as lower premium rates, our portfolio is resilient.
We believe we can continue to achieve growth with expansion of underwriting profit as the main driver. Furthermore, in the Japan P&C business, the effects of previous rate increases will significantly materialize in fiscal '26. So we are also seeing achievement of the midterm plan at solid.
Please turn to Page 8. Regarding organic growth in our international business, as shown in the center of the slide, our North American operations, which account for 90% of profits, achieved profit growth over and above our peers in both underwriting in orange and investment in green. Although there are some softening in certain categories and the operating environment is rather difficult for asset management, we have revised our current fiscal '25 profit projection upward by 2% on a currency-neutral basis. Please turn to Page 9.
Our North American underwriting business consists of 2 main lines, Specialty P&C and employee benefits. As shown on the left side of the slide, we have a high competitive advantage. The right side of the slide shows the portfolio composition of these lines, clearly demonstrating a highly diversified structure. This was not built overnight.
Looking at recent rate trends, a remarkable 75% is comprised of lines with stable rates, meaning these lines are relatively unaffected by the current soft market conditions. While we are not immune to rate cycles, our robust underwriting framework has enabled us to build a highly resilient portfolio. In order for us to continue to achieve meaningful and superior profit growth, we will maintain and solidify the strength in our portfolio.
Please turn to Page 10. This chart, which I am attaching for reference purpose, illustrates the history of the rate cycle in the North American commercial market and the profit growth of our North American operations. As you can see, our North American business has a track record of achieving sustained and stable growth over a prolonged period by leveraging both underwriting profits and investment gains and losses to navigate rate cycles.
Now let me explain our 2 main lines of business in North America and our asset management activities. Please turn to Page 11. First, our Specialty P&C line comprises over 100 lines of business, forming a diversified portfolio with low correlations. We apply our strength, a disciplined underwriting strategy to this portfolio, rigorously executing risk selection and pricing based on the rate environment. This commitment to sustainable business operations in a forward-looking manner and the strict adherence to a strategy of no excessive underwriting or expansion has led to the consistently favorable combined ratio levels shown on the slide and the achievement of profit growth exceeding our peers.
We also view the meaningfully limited impact of the Los Angeles wildfires that occurred earlier this year compared to our peers as further evidence of our disciplined underwriting strategy. Please turn to Page 12. Next, the employee benefits line consists of TMHCC's medical surplus and Delphi's disability insurance, among others. The key to this line is steadily expanding the top line while stabilizing the combined ratio around 95%. Furthermore, leveraging our strength in highly specialized absence management service, we have gained strong support from customers and achieved stable profit growth.
Please turn to Page 13. Next is regarding North American investment. Regarding asset management income or income gains, we are showing AUM times yield as factors. First, concerning AUM, as shown in the center of the slide, it continues to grow at around 10%, supported by our strong insurance business.
Regarding the income yield on the left side of the slide, we are consistently achieving yields approximately 2% above the market by leveraging the strength in credit investment possessed by our central asset management subsidiary, Delphi. We intend to continue monitoring the credit market movements and carefully and appropriately seize investment opportunities.
Please turn to Page 14. Having explained our North American operations thus far, I would also like to touch upon our Brazilian operations from the perspective of building a global portfolio. Brazil now accounts for 7% of international business profits and is growing very strongly. The competitive edge over Brazilian operations lies in disciplined underwriting capabilities and DX/IT technological expertise. Leveraging these strengths, we achieved price competitiveness and risk selection through agile rate adjustments and high profitability through rigorous cost efficiency.
The slide shows the combined ratio, top line and as you multiply the 2, the underwriting profit. Each figure clearly demonstrates its overwhelming strength. Currently, for fiscal 2025, performance is again exceeding the initial plan. Please turn to Page 15. Regarding our overseas M&A strategy, we have achieved growth through M&A and continue to search for more as a means to further diversify our portfolio and acquire competitive strength.
At the same time, we have consistently adhered to our principles for acquisitions, the 3 principles, as you can see here, and a disciplined in and out strategy. This policy remains unchanged. To update you on how we see the current landscape, we see an increase in deal opportunities, both large and small, partly due to softer rates and other factors. However, we also see that valuations for large M&A deals remain appreciated.
Meanwhile, we continuously update our list of candidates we wish to bring into our group and actively pursue necessary actions. We believe that when all conditions, including timing align, this will lead to results. Amidst this, I am pleased to report that we have 2 recent bolt-on acquisitions to share with you this time.
Please turn to Page 16. First is the U.S. collector vehicle insurance business acquired by PHLY in the United States. Collector vehicle insurance is a niche auto insurance segment where PHLY excels, targeting specific vehicle types like classic cars. Enthusiasts of these vehicles typically handle their cars with great care.
Through product and service design, this market maintains a low loss ratio of around 50%. Furthermore, against the backdrop of increasing retirements among the baby boomer generation, the market is expected to continue to grow strongly. PHLY had long aimed to expand its business in this area and has now acquired a business from Ignyte Insurance, which holds #2 position in this field. Acquisition price is $650 million with gross written premium at approximately $160 million.
This acquisition not only expands our customer base, but also provides us with advanced underwriting expertise and talent, further enhancing our specialization. We, therefore, have high expectations for our growth in this market. Please turn to Page 17. The second acquisition announced last week on the 21st of November is of Agrihedge, a U.S. company providing fee-based services to livestock producers. The acquisition price is $970 million. Its fee income is approximately $100 million. In addition to incorporating the company's fee-based businesses such as insurance agency service and derivative brokerage service into our revenue stream, we are also acquiring solution providing capabilities, including consulting service for the agricultural industry.
This will further enhance TMHCC's competitive advantage in the agricultural and livestock insurance market. This will not only enforce TMHCC's underwriting capabilities, but this will also lead to solutions business. And therefore, this acquisition is very meaningful for the entire group. Next, I will explain our Japan P&C business. Please turn to Page 18.
As shown on the left, top 3 companies account for approximately 90% of the Japanese P&C market. Among the 3, TMNF's profitability or combined ratio has been the lowest by a significant margin in the last decade. Our lines of business consists of 2/3 personal and 1/3 commercial.
The strength of our personal lines lie in our flexible rate increase capabilities that beat inflation as in the case of auto insurance in October this year and our quality distribution with high productivity. In our commercial lines, we have unique strengths such as global standard underwriting capability and expertise, refining together with the European and American group companies and our ability to provide solutions enhanced by welcoming ID&E into the group.
Japan's P&C market is undergoing major transformation as it moves away from its past way of doing business, legacy, and this will bring about significant changes in the competitive environment. As we transition to a business environment where success is defined by the intrinsic values of an insurance company, we take this as an opportunity. We will continue to refine our capabilities even more to further increase our advantage.
Let me give some color from several perspectives. Please turn to Page 19. First, let's look at our ability to implement rate increases. While rate cycles in Europe and the United States vary by lines of business, they are generally softening. Japan, however, is seeing the opposite. Market is hardening.
The left shows auto insurance. Due to primarily to inflation, last year's combined ratio was the highest level in the past 10 years. In response, we implemented a rate increase last October last month ahead of our peers. Thanks in part to our agents' strong customer relationships, we were able to minimize the impact on policy renewals after the rate increase as expected.
The effects of this rate increase will be significant in FY '26, and we will continue to strive to stably achieve a combined ratio below 95%. On the right is fire insurance. As a result of implementing rate increases almost every year since 2019, our combined ratio has improved to the 80% range. In FY '25, we expect to finally achieve an ROR of 7% or more or profitability equivalent to the cost of capital.
We will continue to stay relentless to make improvements. Please turn to Page 20. Let me take you through the structural reform of distribution, which is the core of our ReNew initiative to transform TMNF into a new company. This will have the greatest impact on expense ratio. There are 2 major initiatives. First, regarding completely eliminating the so-called 2-tier structure or having our own employees perform agency work, our dialogue with all 40,000 agencies is progressing smoothly, and we expect to completely eliminate by the end of fiscal '26 as planned.
From FY '27, we, together with agents, will provide products and services to customers under a new task allocation scheme based on operational quality standards. This is the second point. Our staff are working hard to complete discussions with all agencies with the aim of completing the effort by the end of FY '25. As a result of these efforts, we plan to reduce the expense ratio to less than 30% on a current JGAAP basis and to around 26% on an IFRS basis.
Please turn to Page 21. Our initiative to improve our insurance underwriting portfolio by implementing thorough profitability measures is progressing smoothly. Specifically, we have carefully examined our portfolio and identified low profitability policies as Tier 2 and Tier 3. In terms of volume, this accounts for approximately 8% of the JPY 1 trillion in fire and specialty insurance premiums. For Tier 2, we are taking measures by category.
For example, we are categorizing into solar power generation facilities and old properties and taking measures that are effective for each category. And for Tier 3, where profitability is particularly challenging, we are taking more in-depth measures on an individual contract basis by raising rates and reducing excessive capacity provision in order to rationalize large-scale unprofitable policies. The key is that we are implementing these initiatives based on our purpose without downsizing or falling into a shrinking equilibrium.
In fact, our top line has actually increased, and our bottom line will also improve by JPY 14 billion under the current midterm plan. Next is Page 22. In response to changes in customer values and behaviors, we are focusing on diversifying distribution channels. Specifically, we changed the name of our direct channel, EDSP, to Tokio Marine Direct Insurance, incorporating the Tokio Marine name and launched a full-scale advertisement campaign.
After the brand was refreshed on October 1 this year, number of contracts and premium income in auto for October alone were both 1.2x higher than the previous year, and I feel it is going well. The direct market is expected to continue to expand. So we aim to achieve growth that significantly outperform the market.
Please open up Page 23. Next, turning to the use of AI and data. The use of AI and data is an important initiative that can unlock great potential in the evolution of the insurance business models. We are exploring ways to utilize AI and data that are tailored to the nature of business models of each region and business and are also promoting practical initiatives. For example, in our Japan P&C business, where 70% of the business is made up of standardized commodity lines, we are using AI for standard tasks such as call centers and responding to inquiries from agents, thereby improving customer experience and reducing expense ratios.
In our international business, proprietary AI developed and leveraged for underwriting auto insurance in Brazil enhanced our capabilities. We have also -- we are also seeing positive outcome in North America, where specialty lines for businesses are the main focus through sophistication of underwriting and claims payment. These are some examples of domain-specific AI utilization.
In addition, this year, we established the AI hub within holdings, which is already responsible for cross-group planning and development support. By harnessing the group's collective expertise, we aim to further enhance the strength of each company's business model. We will continue accelerating these efforts.
Please turn to Page 24 for details on our solutions business. Once again, the solutions business is a business anticipated to play a key role in our continued advancement and represents a major growth opportunity for the future. We are pleased to welcome ID&E into our group in the area of disaster resilience to reduce losses and risks. It is no exaggeration to say that this is an important page in the history of sustainability management as a company in the insurance business.
Up until now, we have been making preparations in the solutions area, expanded our capabilities and steadily made effort. The fact that we have welcomed ID&E into our group demonstrates that the vision we have conceived is by no means a self-centered delusion. While challenging, it is indeed achievable. These steps to pursue the business with strong commitment and persistent effort have similarities with the path we have taken in expanding our international business as shown at the bottom.
Like our international business, we want to firmly develop the solutions business into the group's next major pillar by committing with a strong sense of purpose. Please turn to Page 25. It has only been 6 months since ID&E became a wholly owned subsidiary, but this is the summary of collaborative approaches to our customers. First, in the area of private sector disaster prevention, TMNF selected 150 companies that are at high risk of disaster or highly sensitive to risk and made joint proposals to enhance disaster resilience to 40.
We are starting to see orders come in. Recurrence prevention initiatives are also based on insurance payments in the event of disaster. This is also underway. Because there were a few natural disasters in fiscal 2025, we -- in other words, us and ID&E, we were able to develop detailed strategies for specific approaches, although actual results are yet to be seen. And then in the public sector, shown at the bottom, we are beginning to close some deals by adding TMNF's capabilities to ID&E or by tapping into TMNF's network.
Collaboration between different companies and co-creation of value is unchartered territory for us, therefore, not easy and will take considerable amount of time. However, as anticipated before the acquisition, we feel confident that we can work together to contribute to improving the resilience of society as a whole. I hope that through these efforts, we will also be able to make our own insurance underwriting portfolio more resilient.
It was a very promising first 6 months. Please turn to Page 26. So I talked about each of the businesses. And from here, I will talk about group management and capital strategies. I will start with ROE. As mentioned at the IFRS briefing held at the end of September, after the adoption of IFRS, our ROE level on an apples-to-apples comparison with global peers is around 13%, and we are currently on the journey to raise ROE.
As shown on the right, realizing top-tier EPS growth based on this, transforming our business portfolio, including by leveraging M&A and expanding our solutions business, including fee business. We will steadily implement these steps to raise ROE. Please turn to Page 27. Regarding dividends, once again, the basis of our shareholder returns is dividends, and we will continue to increase DPS sustainably in line with profit growth.
After the adoption of IFRS from FY '26, gains on sales of business-related equities will no longer be included in adjusted net income. Through the sustained expansion of average adjusted net income, which is our core -- which is our source of dividends, we will continue to achieve world-class EPS growth and DPS growth consistent with it.
There will be no change to this policy even after the adoption of IFRS. Please turn to Page 28. Lastly, on share buyback. First, our current ESR as of the end of September 2025 is at a robust level of 155%. In May, we announced our share buyback forecast for FY '25 at JPY 220 billion. However, after comprehensively considering factors such as the level required to boost EPS growth by 2%, announced bolt-on transactions and other M&A in the pipeline, we have now decided to raise the annual amount by JPY 20 billion to JPY 240 billion. We will continue to implement a disciplined capital policy.
Finally, I would like to once again express my sincere gratitude to all our stakeholders, including our shareholders and investors for the support that has enabled us to carry out our business. Thank you very much. As a truly global company with roots in Japan. We intend to work to continuously improve our corporate value while refining our global integrated group management. We appreciate your continued support. That is all for me. Thank you for your kind attention.
Koike-san, thank you very much. So from this point onwards, I would like to receive questions from the participants and [Operator Instructions] In case we have no time to answer your questions, Global Communications will get back to you later on. So now I'd like to open the floor. SMBC Nikko, Muraki-san, please.
2. Question Answer
My name is Muraki from SMBC Nikko. Since I'm limited to ask one question, I'd like to go back to Page 3. At the very beginning of your presentation, you said that you want to be evolving your business model so that you can pass it down to the future generations. I'd like to know a bit more on that point. So if you foresee the next 5 years or maybe 6 years, and you look at how Tokio Marine is today and how would you like to change that in the next 5 to 6 years? On Page 38, I am seeing the very familiar slide. So kiln filling, which were acquired at Sumi-san and then through Naggana-san's Times and also times, you have expanded your footprint. and not only underwriting, but you have always been mindful of diversification as you executed investment as well. and Sompo Holdings, they are getting into the reinsurance market in the United States. MS&AD and Daiichi have made minority investment to asset management business as fee business. AXA, who you index yourself to, they don't like complexity in business. So to simplify their portfolio, they have sold their asset management business.
And so in the course of the next few years, including M&A opportunities, what are the areas that you want to strengthen or geographical areas that you want to strengthen and other areas where you don't want to strengthen so much or maybe a form of investment that you want to avoid perhaps in the next 5 to 6 years?
Thank you for the question. So let me answer your question. 5 to 6 years or even further out, how do we want to evolve ourselves into the future? In the domestic insurance business, also international business and also the newly established solutions business, in each of these 3 businesses, they all need to evolve in their own ways. While that is the aspiration, what we want to do is that we need to be purpose-driven. We want to continue to be purpose-driven and also further diversify the portfolio. That's where we attach the importance.
The major pillars to do that would be the solutions business because solution business, it is a form of providing safety and security to customers and make sure we are at the service of each local community. So this is outside of our underwriting business. It's something that is outside of the traditional area, but we want to expand and further enhance the solutions business. And after ID&E, we would like to look into further organic creation as well as seek for more M&A opportunities also in the solutions business.
The second major pillar is the further risk diversification to be done globally. Because right now, as Muraki-san mentioned, we began in year 2000 for our full-scale globalization, and we have been diversifying risk globally. And right now, about 65% of profit actually comes from international business. This 65%, about 90% of 65% of the profit is actually from the United States.
So I have just introduced our Brazilian business. We have some businesses in Europe. And we also want to create another major pillar within the International division for further profit contribution. While we are surrounded by uncertainties, we want to become even more resilient on a global scale. I said that we want to provide safety and security. We want to expand our ecosystem based on safety and security.
I reiterate, we need to be purpose-driven. And our employees need to feel the worth in working for this under this banner. And that's what will excel our enhancement, and that's how we can expand our ecosystem. In the next midterm plan, I'm sure there will be more details to be shared with you, including some numerical targets we will have to this aspiration.
Any other questions? Watanabe from Daiwa Securities.
Watanabe from Daiwa Securities. I have one question. This is on Page 70 of the handout. Private credit. On the left-hand side, you show the exposure of AUM within CRO, there's lending and the overall exposure across the group, how much is it? And on Page 72, at the time of global financial crisis, Delphi was able to remain in a positive territory. Why was that possible? If you could explain that.
So there were 2 questions. Let me ask Mr. Kenji Okada, our CFO, to respond to your questions.
This is Okada speaking. Allow me to respond to your 2 questions. First, with regards to private loans, the exposure of the group today, in terms of AUM, it's JPY 600 billion. And to the second part of your question, track record, this is before global financial crisis, it was in 2012 that we acquired Delphi and due diligence at the time of M&A, we did check how it went. But even at the time of Lehman shock or global financial crisis, insurance liability was backing its liabilities, and therefore, there were no issues with liability. And therefore, even if there were volatility in the market, they did not have to go through a fire sale. And so credit risk and liquidity premium, they were able to address appropriately. And that is why they were able to maintain a high return even during the global financial crisis.
Any other questions from the floor? Takemura-san from Morgan Stanley, please.
My name is Sakura from Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities. I have some questions regarding Slide #26. I was able to capture your image very well by this slide. And so when you are aiming for the global peer level ROE, number one, which is the top-tier EPS growth, this, I believe, is going to become the biggest driver towards achieving that level of ROE. Related to that, one thing I want to confirm with you is that the direct insurance, while you want to grow your direct insurance by growing direct business, how much impact will it bring to the overall profit?
And what is the loss ratio? What is the expense ratio associated with your direct business? The second is that at the bottom of the slide, you're also showing some financial leverage and yours is 3%. In a way, perhaps if you take the equity plus debt, the leverage that you are using now is about 3%. And compared to the peers, you are at a very different level in terms of financial leverage. But over the medium to longer term, what do you think would be the appropriate level of financial leverage for Tokio Marine?
Thank you for the question. Two questions, right? And so direct insurance impact of direct business and also financial leverage, what is the definition and also what we think is appropriate level. And so the first question will be answered by Okada-san, our CFO.
Regarding direct insurance, Tokio Marine Direct -- within the direct players, we are smaller than some of the others. the top line level from the most recent years, it is still loss-making on a single year basis. Over the medium to longer term, we want to grow the top line, perhaps JPY 50 billion level so that it will start to make a positive profit contribution to the entire group.
And as a leading investment source that we are making some advertisement promotion this year, but we are starting to see the good impact of this. And so we want to ride on the momentum in order to turn the business profitable as soon as possible. On the leverage question, on 26, the ratio, this is net -- the ratio of hybrid capital within the net asset. And so including the senior financing, this is the hybrid portion out of the net asset.
And as for the issuance of hybrid bonds, I know each company make their own decisions. In case of Tokio Marine, in 2020, when we acquired Pure, we had issued hybrid bonds. Basically, for large-scale M&As, if we need to add up some capital, sometimes we consider issuance of hybrid bonds. And so this is not for the recapping purpose, and it's not that we have a target for how much hybrid bonds we should utilize. It's only when you compare this versus ROE. We just wanted to draw your attention to the differences in the financial leverage levels of Tokio Marine versus the peers.
Sakamaki-san from Mizuho. Next question.
Sakamaki from Mizuho. With regards to growth through M&A, I have one question. Going forward, will there be an acceleration of growth through M&A compared to the past in terms of capital adequacy or execution capability to execute M&A? For example, 4 to 5 bolt-ons have been executed in the past, but the number of M&As could be executed in a year, would that be accelerated going forward? What is the current capability of the company? How do you see it? This is my small first question.
And my second question is with regards to solutions business, you have targeted solutions business, and so goodwill might have increased. And so I think higher growth through M&A is needed going forward. In that sense, by utilizing leverage, is it possible to further accelerate the growth of the companies you acquire? Two questions.
Thank you very much for those questions. So international business is where we are contemplating on M&A. So I'll ask Mr. Yamamoto, Co-Head of International to respond to that question.
Yes, this is Yamamoto speaking. Sakamaki-san. Thank you for those questions. In terms of the trend of M&A going forward, I think was your question. As you correctly pointed out, from around the year 2000, we have been engaging in M&A. In terms of our capability to engage in successful M&A, yes, indeed, it has grown. But the key is depending on the market, how many available deals will there be? And from that perspective, looking at the current market condition, the number of potential transactions is definitely increasing, and this trend is expected to continue going forward.
Let me give you some color. The insurance market is heading towards a softening. For example, PE funds that have certain deals before softening, they will be willing to sell them off. That's for sure. And even the businesses that are currently under insurance companies ahead of softening of the market, they want to make their business more resilient. And therefore, the noncore business could be sold off.
And we're seeing such trends emerging, and that is why we're seeing more potential deals available in the market. And that has led to the 2 deals that we have reported to you. But underwriting discipline and the acquisition criteria, we will definitely stick to it. And it all depends on the price, whether it will meet our level. But when there is a rise in opportunity, there could be deals that will fit our criteria. And there are still some that are in the pipeline that we're currently working on, and we're hoping that there will be more opportunities in the future. So I hope I answered your first question.
With regards to the second question, I think the question was on CIH. There is a solution aspect to it. So what is the synergy in the solution business? Okay. So this is Yamamoto speaking. I want to also respond to the second part of your question. With regards to Agrihedge, if you could please turn to Page 17 of the material. Goodwill is increasing. So whether we are expecting high growth, I think, is the question. On the left-hand side of Page 17, as you can see, the business Agrihedge has high potential for growth. And the main reason for that is -- well, this is the agriculture and livestock business insurance, especially for cattle livestock, the penetration of insurance is not high at this moment. And that has led to the high growth in the past. And similar growth is expected going forward.
And as you correctly pointed out, there is goodwill or intangibles, but high growth that will meet the intangibles is expected. And also another unique strength of this company is that it's not just hedging insurance or derivatives, but for the farmers, we'll be able to offer solutions to the farmers. In other words, analyzing the risk of price volatility, so providing training for that and coverage for that.
So it's a packaged solution to the farmers, which is the strength. And combined with that, we expect a strong and high growth. That is all for me. If I could briefly follow up on that. Page 87 further growth through flexible capital policy it says, but that doesn't mean that we will utilize hybrid bonds in order to create a source for further M&A, depending on the opportunities.
If there are opportunities out there, depending on the size, we are able to be flexible. That's what is shown on Page 87. And as was mentioned by Yamamoto-san, we will stick to the 3 principles of M&A. This policy remains intact, which I think is extremely critical. And for the Solutions business, having such a company in our ecosystem, of course, we are expecting a synergy impact to co-create value. And therefore, we will be pursuing our strategy in line with the intentions that you've explained -- mentioned in your question.
Sato-san from JPMorgan, please.
My name is Sato from JPMorgan. As a major interest, I am looking at as surplus, you have about JPY 2 trillion from the end of March, it must have increased even more. So in this situation, how much longer are we going to tolerate this level of surplus? That is my interest. In that sense, under the new definition, there's not going to be the upper limit to the target range. But you are not showing your ROE target. So I don't think the situation is so good. So you have ample surplus over how much of the time would you be able to put it to work or return it to shareholders? Of course, shareholder return over and above what you have done historically to adjust this level. So any ideas on how to use the surplus?
From CFO, Mr. Okada, please answer the question.
Thank you for the question. So first of all, under IFRS, the ESR range, as it was explained and as you reiterated, we are going to be removing the upper threshold in terms of our target range. Capital is important in order to grow our EPS. And also as a result, we want to make the ROE to be on the global peer level.
As you show on Page 26, the IFRS-based ROE as of today is about 13%. And then through the measures 1, 2 and 3, we want to enhance this even further by raising the ROE, that is one way to prove that we are doing efficient capital management. In terms of ROE target, with the introduction of IFRS and also the timing for the midterm plan do not align. Therefore, in the current midterm plan, if you go to Page 30, under the current definition of ROE, we are showing some targets, 20%, including business-related equities or 14% without.
And then we want to make sure that we achieve those targets under the original ROE as we indicate here. And then in next midterm plan under IFRS starting from fiscal '27, in May of '27, we will be refreshing our ROE target according to the new IFRS-based definition. And that's the timing at which we will be disclosing our new ROE targets to all of you.
Mashima-san from Tokai Tokyo.
My question this time around is the financial institution agents or relationship with financial institutions or banks or more specifically with MUFG. Under MUFG, there's MUSD agent, insurance agent, which I think is the largest financial institution affiliated agent in Japan. So share buyback, TOB or share buyback TOB was conducted and the relationship -- equity-related relationship, I think, will be diluted going forward. But there has been some issues in terms of relationship with banks. Banks, I think, with regards to their relationship with insurance companies, I have a sense that they are willing to kind of distance themselves from insurance companies.
And also, there is a call to not provide excessive favors and looking after each other. And especially when it comes to insurance business with MUFG, how is that going to evolve going forward? That is my question. And in the case of Sumitomo Mitsui, they have a major agent called and in July that has been established. And therefore, there are certain companies that are trying to enhance the relationship, strengthen the relationship. But I'm asking what your view is.
Thank you for your question. I'll ask Mr. Shirota, who is the President of TMNF, to respond to that question.
Thank you very much for the question. This is Shirota speaking. I'm not exactly sure whether I have a good understanding of your question. Mitsubishi MUFG unwinding of business-related equities, well, Mitsubishi Bank and insurance business, what is our view on the business relationship with the company? Is that your question? Well, yes. I see. So what we are working on is unwinding of business-related equities and also revisiting second of our staff.
And with regards to the business customs that we've had over the years, we're working to unwind it. Even if it is within the same group, we are addressing it in the same way. Having said that, we won't have equity ownership type of relationship. But as an important partner as a financial institution, we want to be selected by our customers. That stance remains unchanged.
And by correcting our relationship, we want to further work together in order to be preferred by our customers. So just because it's an agent of a financial institution, it doesn't mean that we're going to change our relationship with them. It's an appropriate level of competition that we want to seek further growth. I hope I answered your question.
Well, in terms of net premiums written with these major financial institutions, is that growing or decreasing?
I don't think I have -- I recall properly. But in terms of financial institution channel, it is growing vis-a-vis other channels. That is my understanding.
Okay. So Niwa-san from UBS, please.
My name is Niwa from UBS. I have a question regarding the North American business on Page 9, please tell me. So on the right, if I look at the pie chart, within this, the stable rate lines of business, you have much of your business coming from the stable rate environment. Regarding this, is if you have any lines where competition is intensifying, please let me know which lines those are? And is it the relaxing of the underwriting discipline by the players? And if there is a background serving to that, please let me know the environment because of alternative capital, and because of the distortion and relaxing of the underwriting discipline by the MGAs, I hear about these stories in the market. And so if you have any viewpoint on what is happening in the North American market, let me know. And should I still see that these are stable rating business? Or is it that there is more pressure to be imposed on the underwriting profit even in those rather stable lines?
Okay. So Yamamoto-san in charge of International business, please answer the question.
My name is Yamamoto. Niwa-san, thank you for the question. So here, situation is different for each line of business. I cannot make a blanket statement. Due to various reasons and factors, some competition is intensifying, things moving in the other direction, more pressure being imposed on bottom line, et cetera. As long as looking at the lines we have, we do not see any relaxation of the underwriting discipline in any of the lines we have. However, according to the market, for example, D&O and cyber. At one time, there was escalated premium rate and that improved profitability.
So now it's coming down and competition is intensifying. And that is because MGAs and also the new entrants are coming into the market, and that is what had intensified competition. Finally, in North America, the rate decline has stopped, but these are the cases where competition intensified due to new entrants and there was a higher pressure imposed on the bottom line. So that's one case. Another case I'd like to introduce with you for a different reason when we talk about profitability is that where it says MSL, this is medical stop loss. This is related to medical expenses, which continue to inflate. So this is a single year renewal basis, and so you can change the rate each year at the timing of renewal. However, we need to look at the underlying performance the results and make sure that we get adequate rates. And so that's how we look at the medical stop loss.
As you mentioned, recently, depending on some lines of business, the uniqueness appears in different reasons and sometimes the rates are stable or volatile all for different reasons for line by line. So for each lines of business, we need to look at the uniqueness. We need to keep our underwriting discipline. And if on the market side due to increase in the new entrants and intensified competition, et cetera, as Koike-san, our CEO, mentioned, we will not be doing any excessive underwriting because we need to keep our bottom line, and that will still continue to be the stance of Tokio Marine Group.
Let me just add something to that. So as Yamamoto-san mentioned, competition is intensifying in some areas of business. So when we do the underwriting for certain lines of business, perhaps the -- achieving the top line goal has become rather difficult. However, looking at the bottom line, at least in line with the midterm plan that we have shared with you, we will be able to achieve the midterm plan targets.
Let me see if there are any further questions. BofA Tsujino-san has her hand up by phone.
My first question is kind of a follow-up to Sato-san's question earlier. Year ending March '27, former standard, 14% is achievable in the old ROE and capital adjustment might not be necessary. And from May '27 under the new target, there is a target for the year ending March '29. And if there is a target, you will be making that judgment of whether you're going to have a target will be sometime in the future. So we should be waiting for that patiently. Is that what you're saying? Am I hearing you properly? That's my first question. And my second question is improvement in Japan P&C, and you also talked about your plans. But in specialty, every year, there's always this big large account, large loss, large loss every year.
And are you able to price properly? It's usually Japanese companies in the international market, large losses. compared to non-Japanese P&C companies, aren't you offering a low rate? That's my question and concern. And if -- of course, if there is a challenge, there is room for improvement, which is, I think, also quite favorable, but those are my 2 questions.
Thank you for your questions. There were 2 questions. With your question with regards to your question on ROE, I'll ask Mr. Okada, CFO, to respond. And the second part of your question on specialty, I'll ask Sakiyama-san to respond to that question.
Yes, this is Okada speaking. This is my response kind of overlaps with what I said to Sato-san, but from fiscal '26, IFRS will be adopted officially. And therefore, in May of next year for the full year plan for '26 and if we achieve the full year target of '26, the ROE target will also be disclosed on an IFRS basis.
In the meantime, the current midterm plan, which started JGAAP, next year will be the final year. And so I think it will be kind of a reference basis, but JGAAP basis, ROE improvement from 3 years from '24, whether that is achievable or not will also be disclosed. And so at the time of the closure of FY '26, we would like to do a recap on the same way.
So the ROE level, how are we going to raise ROE with regards to our next target? It will be in the next midterm plan. In other words, each business unit and each group companies will deliberate on this for the next midterm plan and the target will come up -- will be announced in May of '27.
Now when it comes to capital level adjustment, of course, achieving the level at the target is extremely critical, but the ESR level and contribution to EPS growth and the business investment pipeline, we want to be flexible by thinking about it on every 6 months. So we will be mindful of the ROE level, but also look at the capital level and those factors will be taken into account in deciding on the shareholder return for next fiscal year.
And basically, we are contemplating on maintaining our shareholder return policy for next fiscal year.
Sakiyama from TMNF. Tsujino-san, thank you very much for your question. And your question, I think, pertains to the increase in IBNR in the United States, and we're seeing losses in specialty this fiscal year. So IBNR increase in North America last year in property, for example, in auto, this I think, is unthinkable in Japan, but 10 million or more development took place in the United States for auto or there was delays in litigations in the United States and damage has increased.
So IBNR has been developed next year. So we have taken enough countermeasures last fiscal year, I think, is part of your question. But this year, again, a similar trend is occurring in specialty in North America. But actually, this year, 10 losses that occurred 10 years ago, loss has developed. What occurred in last fiscal year was excess layer where TMNF was underwriting, but this time, it's an umbrella type, which is under primary insurance coverage in Japan.
All of a sudden, which is something that goes back 10 years ago and has all of a sudden developed. In other words, the nature of IBNR or losses is different last year and this year. But what is common is loss developing for prior year losses. And from 2023, social inflation trends have been taken into account in North America. We have strengthened underwriting and reducing the limits and so forth. These initiatives are implemented in a disciplined manner. And therefore, in our underwriting policies, today, we do not have major concerns. I hope I answered your question.
So this is Koike speaking. I would like to briefly supplement. With regards to the first question, Mr. Okada said it well. We will be setting our ROE for the next midterm plan. But in the meantime, investment to our business is our top priority. But if there is a lack of opportunity, we will revise on a 6-month basis flexibly. Now when it comes to the second part of your question, you said Japanese companies overseas and low rates, Japan business overseas, well, I think you are right.
But in the past 3 years, we have been able to improve our profitability quite significantly. And so today, in terms of the competitive landscape, local companies in the United States, we are -- there are cases where there is an underbid where we will lose our account. And that is what we are seeing lately.
And so on telephone, we have Sasaki-san from Nomura Securities.
My name is Sasaki from Nomura Securities. On Page 24, let me ask you a question. And so in this plan, the solution business, you want to scale up your solutions business. And what I wanted to ask you is what is the size that you're thinking of to what level do you want to grow this business to? And also, where would be your monetization point? And so what ID&E used to do? Is it through the consultation fee mainly that would feed to the profit? Or is it that the bundled sales of insurance policies that would enhance your profit growth? And so where would be your monetization points? And if possible, when I hear of solution, I think of asset management. And outside of Japan, other insurance companies who have their names listed, when they have a good competitive asset management business, valuation tends to be higher. But if I look at Tokio Marine for the next 5 to 10 years, is asset management part of your expansion story? Do you have any of that kind of ideas right now as you want to scale up the business?
Okay. So first, regarding solutions business, let me answer the first part of your question. So when we talk about solutions business in terms of the size that we are thinking of, as Okada-san mentioned, towards the next midterm plan, we will be more realistically and on a detailed level, we'll share with you our target in terms of the size of the business. In terms of the monetization points, there will be various and diverse monetization point.
So one is similar to what ID&E used to do or what Agrihedge is also doing, which is through consultation fee. So that will be a fee business. That will be one monetization point. The second I can think of is collaboration with insurance business. And so whatever we do may lead to expansion of underwriting and so underwriting profit is another. And furthermore, if we want to create new values, we want to seek for new potential of growth in those new areas, but that is not so easy. And so to begin with the fee income and also the expanded underwriting will still be the main contributors. But when we talk about solutions business, it's not that we are only looking into fee business. That is not the correct way to look at it because ID&E, for example, -- they provide consultation.
They have the urban planning and they also have energy business. And so energy business is not necessarily fee business. They are doing the energy business themselves. So there are various ways to contribute to security and safety. We just need to mix and match these different components that would best contribute to the growth of the group. And then is asset management a meaningful target for the future years. As you know, we have a TMAM, Tokio Marine Asset Management within the group. And do we want to expand this kind of business? I would not be ruling out the option of doing so. But then right now, asset management business itself is not at the center of the focus right now as we look into the future.
Next question on phone, SBI Securities, Otsuka-san.
Otsuka from SBI Securities. I hope you can hear me. Yes, loud and clear. Top page in your story of value creation, I definitely would like to ask this question to you, Koike-san. In order to realize your purpose, what do you think is lacking? If I ask it the other way around, what do you think needs to be changed on a short-term basis or what will take time but has to be changed over the medium and long term? If I could have your views on that. I kind of asked a similar question 6 months ago, but I hope you could respond to this question.
Yes. Thank you very much for your question. In order to realize our purpose, what is missing? What has to be changed? What is missing? Rather than saying what is missing, and I think this is something that I said when I assumed the position, for Tokio Marine Group, the business model evolution is what we need. We've been in the insurance business and generate intrinsic value and offer value to our customers and society.
We've been focusing on that. But in addition to insurance, through solution business, we will offer a sense of safety and security. So changing the mindset I think, is something that will require major change. And also the products offered as solution by bringing ID&E into a group and the preparation company that is currently being developed, that is how we want to materialize the solutions business and the lineup, the product mix of solutions is also extremely critical. We need to enrich our offerings. What will make this possible is the employees, the aspiration, should I say, of our employees.
And as I said at the outset, I've been holding Townhall meetings in and outside of Japan. And I am sensing the strong passion amongst our employees. The members that are working to change the business model, I feel that they also are very enthusiastic about this.
So when you ask me the question of what is lacking today, I would say that the products that we can offer in solutions business, I think that will be a short answer to your question.
Understood. Kind of a follow-up question. Sorry about that. Page 24, this is a very easy to understand chart on Page 24, I appreciate. And you were talking about employees' mindset and aspirations. Apart from that, I also want to ask a question from a capability perspective. The Page 24 at the bottom, this is about acquiring international business by solutions business. This is outside of insurance intrinsic value and it's a noninsurance M&A. So not just a mindset change, but capability, I think, has to be added. Anything to add on that?
Yes. Thank you for that. For Tokio Marine Holdings, how are we going to manage the solutions business, that's very critical. And I didn't say that we are missing something on that because we have welcomed ID&E in the group, and we have already built up that capability. Within PMI, apply common sense as an insurance company, there are areas that are not working well. And that's definitely an area where we're striving to deliver in the solutions business, which is new to us. But by having this new company into our group, ID&E allows us to come up with a more flexible way of thinking and the value creation-wise, definitely, this is going to bring about some positive impact. So I look forward to that capability within your group.
Any other questions? Watanabe-san from Daiwa please.
ROE and adjustment of the denominator. And so Sompo Holdings who has already begun IFRS, the unrealized gain becomes part of the capital and that makes the denominator bigger. As you sell down your equities, the, which is the denominator side of the equation gets bigger and bigger. And so apart from EPS or ROE, any capital adjustment you're planning to do for that denominator side? And also, when you review this every 6 months, is it so that you can adjust it for more than 2% of your market cap.
Okada-san will answer the question.
So IFRS, with the introduction, we have revisited, changed the definition of ROE and then the denominator side of the equation, as we -- when it's a gain is unrealized, it does not get included in the denominator. However, once we sell the equities and it becomes cash, it does get included in the denominator.
And so in the next midterm plan, towards fiscal '29 as we need to be selling down our equities to 0, we have factored in that the denominator is going to get bigger. And even including that, we want to bring up the ROE to the global peer level, and that will be part of the new midterm plan starting from '27.
As capital adjustment, the appropriate level of capital from our perspective in a multifaceted manner, we look at the level of ROE and also what we want to prioritize, which is the business investment, the M&A pipeline and also in the current plan, there will be some contribution to the growth of EPS. And so we want to look at these factors comprehensively.
And rather than including ROE to those targets, by doing what I have mentioned, we want to be raising up the ROE so that we make a midterm plan and then we review the situation every 6 months. That's what I foresee. When you do that, 2% of market cap and adjustment over and above that level, would you still do it even if it's at that scale? EPS growth, we are aiming for 8% or more and then 1% to 2% will come from the adjustment.
And so 2% is the level that we are thinking of in terms of contribution to EPS. But then once we move on to the next midterm plan, we still really haven't started discussing that in details yet. And so do we set the target for EPS growth? Are we going to be setting the target for how much of ROE growth and also share buyback, are we going to be announcing any plans related to share buyback those have yet been discussed internally.
Are there any other questions? If not, can I ask Mr. Koike to give a closing remark?
Yes. Thank you very much for joining us in spite of your busy schedules. Through our exchanges with you, we, I think, are able to receive ideas and hints on how to grow our business going forward. I might be repeating myself, but we want to deliver a growth evolution that is true to our identity and grow our business.
Solutions business, domestic P&C and international business. We don't exclude the possibility of welcoming new companies through M&A. So with good governance in place, we'll make sure to further grow our businesses so that we will evolve and grow as a global company with roots in Japan. Your continued support is very much appreciated. Thank you very much.
And with this, we would like to conclude the IR briefing for the second half of FY '25 (sic) '26. Thank you very much for joining us today.
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Tokio Marine — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Tokio Marine — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
📊 Kernbotschaft
- Finanzlage: Tokio Marine bestätigt robuste EPS (Ergebnis je Aktie)‑Wachstumsdynamik: 5‑Jahres‑CAGR 19.9% und aktuell operative Zielrate ≥8% (momentan ~8.9%).
- ROE‑Fokus: Nach IFRS (ab FY'26) erwartet Management ein ROE (Eigenkapitalrendite) von rund 13% auf Peer‑vergleichsbasis; weitere Steigerung angestrebt.
- Kapitalpolitik: ESR bei ~155%; jährliches Aktienrückkaufprogramm erhöht auf JPY 240 Mrd (vorher JPY 220 Mrd); Dividenden (DPS) sollen mit EPS wachsen.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- International: Internationaler Bereich liefert ~65% der Gewinne, davon ~90% aus Nordamerika; Brasilien wächst stark und macht ~7% der internationalen Gewinne.
- Solutions‑Fokus: Ausbau der Solutions‑Geschäfte (Übernahme ID&E, Agrihedge) als künftige zweite Säule neben Underwriting; Ziel: Fee‑ und paketierte Lösungsumsätze.
- Japan P&C‑Reform: ReNew‑Programm: Abschaffung der Zwei‑Tier‑Agenturstruktur bis Ende FY'26, Expense‑Ratioziel <30% (JGAAP) bzw. ~26% (IFRS); Fire/Auto: spürbare Rateffekte für FY'26.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Akquisitionen: Zwei Bolt‑on‑Deals: PHLY kauft Collector‑Vehicle‑Geschäft (US$650 Mio, GWP ≈ US$160 Mio); Agrihedge akquiriert für US$970 Mio (Fee‑Income ≈ US$100 Mio).
- Bilanz/Investments: Private‑Credit‑Exposition (AUM) gruppenweit ≈ JPY 600 Mrd; Delphi liefert überdurchschnittliche Credit‑Yields.
- IFRS‑Timing: IFRS‑Umstellung ab FY'26; neue ROE‑Ziele und Mid‑Term‑Plan‑Zahlen werden im Mai 2027 kommuniziert.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- M&A‑Pipeline: Nachfrage zu Tempo und Kapitalverwendung; Management: mehr Opportunities, aber strikte 3‑Prinzipien und Disziplin; Hybrid‑Issuance nur selektiv.
- Solutions‑Monetarisierung: Nachfrage nach Größen‑/Zeithorizont; Antwort: Monetarisierung über Beratungs‑Fees, erweitertes Underwriting und Plattformgeschäfte, konkrete Zielgrößen kommen im nächsten Mid‑Term‑Plan.
- Underwriting‑Risiken: Nordamerika: Wettbewerbsdruck in D&O/Cyber durch MGAs; Management betont konsequente Underwriting‑Disziplin und selektive Zurückhaltung.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Investment‑Takeaway: Solides organisches EPS‑Wachstum, gezielte Bolt‑on‑M&A und aktive Kapitalrückführungen stärken kurzfristig den Aktionärswert. Wesentliche Unsicherheiten bleiben: IFRS‑Neujustierung der ROE‑Metrik, die genaue Skalierung der Solutions‑Sparte und die Entwicklung einzelner Nordamerika‑Sparten; Antworten dazu liefert der Mid‑Term‑Plan im Mai 2027.
Tokio Marine — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good evening and good afternoon, everyone. My name is Okada, and thank you very much for taking the time to join our call today. We also appreciate your continued support towards Tokio Marine.
Let me move straight into my presentation. Please turn to Page 3. There are 3 key messages I would like to highlight today. First, regarding the current business momentum. In the first half of fiscal '25, Japan P&C results benefited from benign natural catastrophes and steady execution of rate increases. Underwriting in our international operations, including North America and Brazil was also strong and overall business momentum remains favorable. In North American credit, capital losses came in below expectations and business-related equity sales totaled JPY 580 billion in the first half, reflecting accelerated divestments. Asset management and capital-related activities have also been progressing smoothly.
Second point is regarding our full year profit outlook. As mentioned earlier, underwriting momentum remains strong and capital losses in North America credit are below expectations. However, we have seen negative impact from cross-currency FX movements between the U.S. dollar and British pound. And in Asian Life insurance, lower interest rates have led to an increase in insurance liabilities, which must be recognized as loss. These market-driven factors outside of underlying business momentum have created downward pressure on profit. In addition, our direct channel company, E. design Insurance was rebranded as Tokio Marine Direct on October 1, and we are actively investing in promotions and advertisements. As a result, our fiscal '25 profit forecast, excluding gains on sales of business-related equities, is revised downward by JPY 28 billion from the initial forecast to JPY 672 billion.
However, the profit forecast, including gains on business-related equity sales, which forms the basis for dividend is revised upward by JPY 10 billion to JPY 1.11 trillion, reflecting accelerated divestments. On a normalized basis, we exclude one-off impacts such as capital gain and losses related to North American credit, gain on sales of equities as well as cross-currency effects. As a result, the main negative factors are lower profits in Asia Life Insurance and higher advertising expenses at Tokio Marine Direct. Full year profit on a normalized basis is projected to be JPY 20 billion below the initial forecast.
Third point is regarding shareholder return. Our view that profit growth in our business and expansion of shareholder return should be consistent remains unchanged.
Regarding dividend payment, which is the main means of shareholder return, we have revised upward the fiscal '25 actual basis adjusted net income, including gains on sales of business-related equities, which forms the basis for dividend payment. To be consistent, we will increase our fiscal '25 DPS by JPY 1 from the initial plan of JPY 210 to JPY 211.
We will also continue to manage our capital stock with discipline. Specifically, generated capital will be allocated to M&A and risk-taking opportunities that contribute to improving our ROE. If high-quality opportunities do not arise, we will execute share buybacks.
Our ESR currently stands at a strong level of 155%. Recently, we announced Philadelphia's acquisition of an insurance business serving collector vehicle for USD 615 million. In addition, we currently have multiple M&A opportunities in the pipeline. We have also previously stated our intention to achieve approximately 2% EPS growth through share buybacks, and our market capitalization continues to grow. Taking these factors into account comprehensively, we have decided to increase our fiscal '25 share buyback plan from the originally announced JPY 220 billion to JPY 240 billion. These are the key messages.
Let me now move into more details. Please turn to Page 4. First is the top line. All figures are explained on excluding FX factor basis. Net premiums written in the first half increased by 4%, slightly below our original projections. In Japan P&C, rate increases took place as planned, while in international business, some lines saw softening market conditions. In response, we remained disciplined, focusing on risk selection and bottom line.
Life insurance premiums declined by 3% due to the block reinsurance executed by Asian Life in April, but underwriting in international business exceeded our initial projections. Reflecting these first half conditions, we have updated our full year outlook and now expect net premiums written to increase 4% and life insurance premiums to increase 62% year-on-year.
Next, let me explain adjusted net income. Please turn to Page 5. Group adjusted net income for the first half was JPY 755 billion or excluding gains on sales of business-related equities, it was JPY 367.2 billion. Progress rate towards the original full year projection was 69% and 52%, respectively. Both are strong. As mentioned at the beginning, this reflects strong underwriting both domestically and internationally as well as capital losses in North America credit that were below initial expectations. I will now explain the details by business segment.
Starting with Japan P&C. Despite the impact of a higher-than-planned auto accident frequency and effect of large loss in specialty, progress against our full year forecast is strong due to fewer nat cats than average, the steady impact of rate increases in auto and fire and a decrease in foreign currency hedging costs due to the narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and the United States. Also, in October, auto rate increase of 8.5% was implemented ahead of our peers. Thanks to our agents' strong customer relationships, we have been able to control the impact of renewals after the rate increase as expected. Rate revisions will continue to be implemented flexibly in response to loss cost trends.
Turning to International. Although there are factors that drive profits down, such as the L.A. wildfires that occurred in January and the foreign exchange impact between the dollar and the pound, underwriting profits remain strong, particularly in major DCs in North America and TMSR in Brazil and less-than-expected capital loss in North America, so Q2 results are generally on track.
Turning to full year projections. Please turn to Page 6. Adjusted net income on an actual basis for FY 2025, excluding business-related equities is expected to be JPY 672 billion, down JPY 28 billion from original projections. As explained earlier, strong underwriting in International and a decrease in capital losses in North America will be factors to increase profits, while the FX impact between foreign currencies, profit decline in Asian Life and increase in advertising expenses at Tokio Marine Direct Insurance or TMDI are profit reducing factors. Adjusted net income, including business-related equities that includes accelerated sales of strategic or business-related holdings is expected to be JPY 1,110 billion, up JPY 10 billion from the original projections.
The nominal -- correction, the normalized full year projections, which presents the underlying capability of our business is shown on Page 7. Excluding one-off effects such as capital gains and losses on North American credit and strategic holdings and foreign exchange impact between the foreign currencies, the main factors that drive profits down are decrease in profits in Asian Life and increase in advertising expenses at TMDI, resulting in a downward revision of JPY 20 billion compared to our initial projections.
Next, let me cover shareholder returns on Page 8. Once again, we have -- as we have stated previously, the basis of our shareholder returns is dividends, and our policy is to sustainably increase DPS in line with profit growth. As explained earlier, our actual adjusted net profit for fiscal year '25, including gains on sales of business-related holdings was revised up by JPY 10 billion. To be consistent, DPS for FY '25 will be increased by JPY 1 compared to our initial plan to JPY 211 or DPS growth of 23% year-on-year.
Please turn to Page 9. Regarding capital stock adjustments and share buyback as a means to achieve this, our thinking remains unchanged. That is, as we always say, if there are M&As or risk-taking opportunities that contribute to improving our corporate value and ROE, we will execute them. In the absence of opportunities, we will conduct share buyback.
Earlier, I mentioned Philadelphia's bolt-on M&A of the collected car insurance business. The deal summary is on Page 10. This is a niche auto insurance business in which PHLY excels. And because car enthusiasts drive cars carefully, the loss ratio is low at around 50%. Also with the increasing retirement of the baby boomer generation, the market is expected to continue to demonstrate strong growth. PHLY, Philadelphia acquired the business from Ignyte, the second largest insurance company in this field. We are confident that this acquisition will enhance PHLY's underwriting expertise and further boost our growth.
We currently have multiple M&A deals in the pipeline, and our ESR is currently at a robust level of 155%. While we aim to achieve approximately plus 2% of EPS growth through share buybacks, our market cap reached JPY 12 trillion as of the end of September. Taking these factors into account, we have decided to increase our share buyback for fiscal year '25 from the JPY 220 billion announced at the beginning of the year to JPY 240 billion. Specifically, we have already decided and executed JPY 110 billion. And at our Board meeting held today, a new resolution was approved to execute the remaining JPY 130 billion. As mentioned in the news release issued today, we plan to purchase the entire JPY 130 billion through a share tender offer.
Lastly, on reduction of business-related equities. Please turn to Page 11. At the beginning of the year, we had planned to sell JPY 600 billion in fiscal FY '25. However, we have seen steady progress in reaching an agreement to sell shares and combined with the ongoing rise in stock prices, we have revised the plan upward by JPY 60 billion to JPY 660 billion. Towards achieving the milestones set in our current midterm plan of halving the balance at the end of FY '26 versus end of '23 and fully divesting by the end of fiscal '29, we are on track.
That is all for me. We will continue to achieve world-class EPS growth with high confidence driven by globally well-diversified portfolio with low volatility, strong underwriting and the resulting strong income. We also intend to further increase ROE through EPS growth and disciplined capital policy.
Your continued understanding and support is very much appreciated.
[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]
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- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
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Tokio Marine — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Tokio Marine — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Bereinigtes Ergebnis H1: JPY 755 Mrd.; ohne Verkauf von Geschäftsaktien JPY 367,2 Mrd.; Fortschritt gegenüber Jahresziel 69% bzw. 52%.
- Netto-Prämien: +4% H1 (FX‑bereinigt); Full‑Year‑Erwartung +4%.
- Lebensprämien: -3% H1 durch Block‑Rückversicherung; Full‑Year‑Prognose +62% YoY.
- ESR: 155% (Economic Solvency Ratio, solide Kapitalbasis).
- DPS & Buyback: Dividend per Share auf JPY 211 (+JPY 1; +23% YoY); Rückkauf erhöht auf JPY 240 Mrd. (JPY 110 Mrd. bereits ausgeführt, Rest JPY 130 Mrd. per Tender Offer).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Underwriting‑Fokus: Disziplinierte Zeichnung in Japan P&C mit vorgezogener Auto‑Tarifanpassung; international starke Underwriting‑Ergebnisse (u.a. Nordamerika, Brasilien).
- Kapitalallokation: Beschleunigte Veräußerungen strategischer Beteiligungen (FY'25 Ziel JPY 660 Mrd.), aktive M&A‑Pipeline; Priorität auf ROE‑steigernde Transaktionen, ansonsten Aktienrückkäufe.
- Direktvertrieb: Rebranding E.design → Tokio Marine Direct; erhöhte Marketing‑ und Werbeausgaben bewusst investiert, drücken kurzfristig das Ergebnis.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Prognose exkl. Beteiligungen: Bereinigtes Nettoergebnis FY'25 gesenkt um JPY 28 Mrd. auf JPY 672 Mrd.
- Prognose inkl. Beteiligungen: Erwartet JPY 1.110 Mrd. (Aufwärtsrevision JPY 10 Mrd.), Basis für Dividendenentscheidung.
- Normalisierte Sicht: Unter Bereinigung um Einmaleffekte Rücknahme um JPY 20 Mrd.; Treiber der Abschläge sind geringere Gewinne in Asia Life und höhere Werbekosten bei TMDI.
- Risiken: FX‑Effekte USD/GBP sowie niedrige Zinsen in Asien erhöhen Versicherungsverpflichtungen und können weiteres Druckpotenzial erzeugen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Kernaussage: Operative Stärke beim Underwriting bleibt gegeben, kurzfristig geminderte Profitabilität exklusive Verkaufsgewinne; zugleich deutlich gesteigerte Shareholder‑Friendly‑Maßnahmen (DPS JPY 211, Rückkauf JPY 240 Mrd., beschleunigte Beteiligungsverkäufe), womit Aktionäre direkt profitieren, obwohl FX und Asia Life als zentrale Risikoquellen bestehen.
Tokio Marine — Special Call - Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Hello, everyone. My name is Okada. Thank you very much for taking the time to join us today despite your busy schedule. Also, I sincerely appreciate your continued support to Tokio Marine Group.
Without further ado, let me begin. Please turn to Page 2 of the materials.
Here, I have summarized into 3 main points, what I would like to convey to you today. The first point is about KPIs after IFRS adoption. Tokio Marine Holdings will switch to IFRS accounting standards at the end of fiscal '25. The reason is that by adopting IFRS, our financial results will be on an economic value basis. Compared with JGAAP, IFRS will more accurately reflect our underlying state of the business in the financial results and economic value-based numbers matches our ERM approach, which is at the core of our management.
Also for stakeholders, moving to IFRS will make our disclosures simpler and easier to understand compared with our past method of adjusting JGAAP specific number, thereby improving transparency and comparability with global peers. In addition to the change in accounting standards, we will also revise the definition of our KPIs after IFRS adoption so that comparison with global peers becomes easier than before.
Specifically, adjusted net income, which is our profit indicator, will be based on IFRS financial numbers and will exclude capital gains and losses from asset management. In short, the profit indicator will be defined as underwriting profit plus investment income, which is the same definition adopted by global peers for their profit KPI. Adjusted ROE will also be aligned with the global peers' definition. That is the numerator will be the adjusted net income I just explained, and the denominator will be net assets, excluding unrealized gains and losses on financial assets and insurance liabilities from IFRS financial numbers.
Reflecting such definition changes, our KPI levels after IFRS adoption will be adjusted net income for fiscal '24 actual basis to be approximately JPY 805 billion, fiscal '25 forecast to be around JPY 840 billion. Adjusted ROE will be around 13% in both fiscal '24 and '25.
The second point is about the DPS growth. Dividends remain the main means of shareholder return and the policy to sustainably increasing DPS in line with profit growth will not change even after IFRS adoption. Within that, while we have traditionally used the 5-year average of adjusted net income as the basis for dividend payment, this time, we will shorten it to 3-year average. This is because, as explained earlier, since capital gains on losses will be excluded from adjusted net income under IFRS, profit on a single year basis is expected to be less volatile compared to the current profit definition.
Also, after IFRS adoption, due to the change in accounting standards, gains from sales of business-related equities will no longer be included in statutory accounting profit and adjusted net income. However, through continued profit growth in our core business, we will sustainably expand source of dividends and continue to achieve DPS growth in line with top-tier EPS growth. The third point is about capital policy.
First, regarding share buybacks. Since last year, we have announced that we will achieve 2% EPS growth through share buybacks. We will continue to use this as a standard while reserving some flexibility in execution by comprehensively taking into account market conditions, M&A pipeline and other factors. Next, regarding ESR, which serves as one of the factors for considering capital policy, with the introduction in Japan of a new capital regulation based on the concept of ICS or international capital standard, at the same timing as migration to IFRS at Tokio Marine from the end of fiscal '25, we will revise the definition of ESR.
It will emphasize consistency with the new capital regulation and comparability with global peers. Furthermore, we will position ESR as an indicator of financial soundness and set our target level as equivalent to the lower end of the current target range, a minimum level required for maintaining AA- rated capital adequacy, which would be 190% or higher.
On the other hand, we will abolish the upper end of the target range, which we have. Currently, we are significantly advancing the sales of business-related equities, releasing capital that can be used for growth investment, risk taking or shareholder returns. Under such a situation, to continue achieving top-tier EPS growth and raise ROE to the global peer level, it is essential not to decide on use of capital just because ESR exceeds the upper limit, but rather to carefully determine whether the use of capital in any certain way contributes to further profit growth and ROE improvement.
This is exactly the concept of our capital policy, as explained before, and our stance of continuing to put capital to work in a disciplined manner has not changed at all. Now I would like to explain each of these points in a little more detail. Please turn to Page 3.
The definition of KPIs after adoption of IFRS is as explained earlier. Let me go over the major differences from the current definition. First, regarding adjusted net income. With the transition from JGAAP to IFRS, gains on sales of business-related equities will no longer be included in profit. Insurance liabilities will be evaluated based on economic value that represents the profitability and strength of our business.
Post IFRS adoption, capital gains and losses from asset management will not be included. This is because our investment is based on long-term stable income management that takes into account the characteristics of insurance liabilities. Therefore, excluding capital gains and losses from temporary market fluctuations is in line with our strategy and more appropriately demonstrates the strength of our business. This definition is also consistent with global peers profit indicators.
Adjusted ROE will also be changed consistent with global peers. To be more specific, unrealized gains and losses on financial assets and insurance liabilities will be excluded from the denominator of ROE and will include goodwill and intangible fixed assets, which are excluded under the current definition. As shown on Pages 4 and 5 of the slide deck, our performance against the newly defined KPIs are adjusted net income approximately JPY 805 billion for FY '24 and approximately JPY 840 billion for FY '25 and adjusted ROE approximately 13% for both FY '24 and '25.
Please turn to Page 6. Dividends will continue to be the basis of our shareholder returns. There is no change to our policy of sustainably increasing DPS in line with profit growth. And the averaging period of adjusted net income, which is the source of dividends, will be shortened from the current 5 years to 3 years. I have already explained this.
Therefore, DPS for FY '26, the first year of IFRS adoption will be determined using a 3-year average of IFRS-based adjusted income from FY '24 to '26. Even after the transition to IFRS, we will continue to achieve top-tier EPS growth and achieve DPS growth consistent with that. In fact, as shown in the bottom of Slide 6, the 3-year IFRS base adjusted net income that will serve as source of dividend for FY '26 is JPY 805 billion in FY '24 and JPY 840 billion according to FY '25 forecast, which already exceeds the JPY 805 billion in source of dividends for FY '25.
Given the solid performance of our business today, dividend pool for FY '26 will naturally be larger than FY '25. The amount of DPS for FY '26 will be calculated based on the results for FY '25 and the profit plan for FY '26 on an IFRS basis and is scheduled to be announced in May next year. To achieve DPS growth that is consistent with the newly defined EPS growth explained today, we will take a holistic approach that will include payout ratio.
Lastly, but not least, let me cover ESR. Please turn to Pages 7 and 8. Our company has, over the years, aimed to maintain a capital level equivalent to AA rating, and this stance will remain unchanged after the introduction of new capital regulations. To directly reflect this stance, ESR will be redefined. Our current definition of ESR uses a 99.95% value at risk as the confidence level of risk calculation.
To be consistent with the new capital regulations and to emphasize comparability with global peers, we will change to using a 99.5% value at risk going forward. Secondly, change regarding restricted capital. Based on the idea of indicating capital available for new business investments and shareholder returns that are not included in the business plan, we have previously calculated ESR by excluding restricted capital from net assets and reflected expanded risk taking in existing businesses over the next year as part of our business plan in our risk calculation.
To be consistent with the new capital regulations and to facilitate comparability with global peers, we will now change these calculations to not exclude restricted capital from net assets and not reflect risks taken in existing businesses that are incorporated in business plans in these calculations. The new ESR level reflecting this change in definition will be as shown in the center of Page 7, 285% as of the end of March 2025.
As our goal of maintaining an AA-rated capital level remains unchanged, our ESR target based on the new definition will be 190% or higher, which is equivalent to the lower limit of 100% in the current definition target range. While the ESR level will change with the change in definition, our approach and discipline toward capital policy will remain intact. Capital generated through organic growth and portfolio review will be allocated primarily to M&A and risk taking that contribute to further profit growth and ROE improvement.
In the absence of such opportunities, we will consider expanding shareholder returns as we have no intention to hold on to unnecessary surplus capital. Our approach regarding share buybacks will also remain unchanged. As previously announced, share buyback will be executed flexibly, comprehensively considering the level required to boost EPS growth by 2%, market conditions, M&A pipeline, including bolt-ons and risk-taking opportunities and others are taken into account.
That is all from me. By taking accounting standards and the definitions of KPIs, our disclosure should more simply and clearly reflect our capabilities. This will also make it easier for our stakeholders to understand. While these changes will affect the numbers and their appearance, our management strategy or business operations will not change. We will continue to steadily implement our management strategy and achieve world-class EPS growth with high confidence and further improve ROE through EPS growth and a disciplined capital policy. It is with a strong will that we will manage our business.
Your continued support is very much appreciated.
[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Tokio Marine — Special Call - Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc.
Tokio Marine — Special Call - Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Tokio Marine stellt zum Ende des Geschäftsjahres 2025 auf IFRS um und passt KPIs an, um Vergleichbarkeit mit internationalen Peers herzustellen. Adjusted Net Income (ohne Kapitalgewinne/-verluste) wird für FY‑24 mit ~JPY 805 Mrd. und FY‑25 mit ~JPY 840 Mrd. angegeben; Adjusted ROE liegt bei ~13%. Management betont: Strategie und operatives Geschäft bleiben unverändert, Änderungen betreffen Reporting und Kapitaldefinitionen.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Kapitalallokation: Oberes ESR‑Limit entfällt; freigesetztes Kapital aus Verkäufen von Geschäftsaktien soll vorrangig in ertragssteigernde M&A und risikotragende Wachstums‑Projekte fließen. Share‑Buybacks bleiben flexibel und dienen neben M&A dazu, ein EPS‑Wachstum von ~2% zu unterstützen.
- KPI‑Anpassung: Adjusted ROE‑Denominator schließt zukünftig nicht realisierte Gewinne/Verluste aus Finanzanlagen und Versicherungsverbindlichkeiten aus; Goodwill und immaterielle Vermögenswerte werden berücksichtigt, wie bei globalen Peers üblich.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Konkretes Update: Formale Neudefinition: Kapitalgewinne/-verluste aus Asset‑Management und Gewinne aus Verkauf geschäftsbezogener Aktien fließen nicht mehr in Adjusted Net Income; ESR‑Berechnung wechselt von 99.95% VaR auf 99.5% VaR. Entsprechend ergibt sich ein neues ESR von 285% per 31.03.2025; Zielniveau ≥190%. DPS‑Bemessung verkürzt auf 3 Jahre (FY24–FY26 für FY26); die 3‑Jahres‑Basis übertrifft bereits die FY25‑Quelle.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit für Aktionäre: Erwartet werden transparentere, international vergleichbare Kennzahlen und eine etwas glattere Gewinndarstellung; operative Entwicklung bleibt gleich. Dividendenwachstum bleibt Kern der Kapitalrückgabe, zugleich erhöht sich die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass Kapital proaktiv für M&A oder flexible Rückkäufe eingesetzt wird. Wichtige Trigger: Umsetzung der Buyback‑Pläne, M&A‑Pipeline und die FY‑26‑DPS‑Ankündigung im Mai.
Tokio Marine — 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
[Interpreted] As it is time, I would like to start the session. Thank you for joining us for the Tokio Marine Holdings IR briefing for the first half FY 2025 in spite of your busy schedules. As always, I will be serving as the moderator. I am Ishiguro, Head of Global Communications.
Today's session is held in a hybrid format where participants are joining both in person and online. The moderator is currently giving announcements for the Japanese audience.
[Foreign Language]
Let me introduce the participants from the company side. From Tokyo Marine Holdings, Group CEO, Satoru Komiya; Vice President, Executive Officer, Group CFO, Kenji Okada; Vice President, Executive Officer, Co-Head of International Business, Kichiichiro Yamamoto; Senior Managing Executive Officer, Head of Solution Business, Yoichi Moriwaki; Senior Managing Executive Officer, Group CDO, Masashi Namatame, Senior Managing Executive Officer, Head of Japan-based business, Kiyoshi Wada, Managing Executive Officer, Group CRO, Kiyoshi Ajioka; Managing Executive Officer, Group CAO, Shumpei Takizawa; Managing Executive Officer, Masahiro Koike, Managing Executive Officer, Group CIO, Yoshiaki Nakahara; Managing Executive Officer, Group CSUO, Mita Nabisima.
Next, from TMNF, President and Chief Executive Officer, Hiroaki Shirota; Vice President and Executive Officer, Kenichi Kitazawa; Senior Managing Executive Officer, Eiichi Hosojima; Senior Managing Executive Officer, Hiroshi Sakiyama.
From [indiscernible] Life, we have the President, Shuji Asano, joining us today.
We will start with an opening presentation by our Group CEO, Mr. Komiya, using materials posted on our homepage. After which, we will open the floor for questions. We are scheduled to end at 2:30 p.m. Japan time at maximum 3 p.m. Over to you, Mr. Komiya.
Hello, everyone. My name is Komiya. I thank you very much for attending Tokio Marine Group's business strategy briefing today. We would also like to express our gratitude for your ongoing support to Tokyo Marine Group. The details of our financial results are, as I discussed with you during earnings conference call last week on May 20. Specifically, our adjusted net income for fiscal '24 stands at JPY 1.2 trillion, helped by gains from the sales of business-related equities. And we have consistently revised our projections upwards at the time of our earnings announcement. For fiscal '25, we are guiding for adjusted net income to exceed JPY 1 trillion. We are indeed standing in a place clearly different from where we were before. Yet we still consider us to be in the middle of our growth journey.
While the current global environment is challenging, with various issues arising, it is indeed not an easy environment to be doing business in. However, we will continue to demonstrate resilience. And even in such circumstances, we will accelerate our transformational efforts to achieve further growth. To this end, we will also ensure a smooth transition to the next generation. We have incorporated this determination into the cover of this presentation material.
Today, I would like to give the new CEO, Mr. Koike, a few words at the end.
Let's move on to the contents. Please turn on to Page 2 of the material. As indicated in the table of contents, I will first provide a 30-minute overview of Tokio Marine's management and business operations. Following that, we will open the floor for questions and comments from the audience as time permit. We hope this briefing session will serve as an opportunity for you to gain a deeper conviction over ongoing expansion of our corporate value.
Please turn to Page 3. Here are 3 key messages I would like to share with you today. First is the upper box. Our EPS growth has achieved a CAGR of 19.9% over the past 5 years, placing us at the top tier in the world. Additionally, our DPS growth is also top tier in line with strong EPS growth. For fiscal '25, we plan to set the DPS at JPY 210, which will be 22% increase compared to fiscal '24, marking 14 consecutive years of dividend increase. Furthermore, we will adopt IFRS starting from fiscal '26. There will be no change to the policy of continuously raising DPS growth with both angle of growth and level of confidence at high levels, backed by strong EPS growth even after the introduction of IFRS.
Next, in the middle box, the middle section is raise ROE to the level of global peers. Our current ROE stands at 12.6% and at 19.8%, including gains from the sales of business-related equities. We are among the top in Japan's financial sector. However, we recognize that there is still a gap between us and global peers. In addition to continuing to achieve world-class EPS growth, we will be releasing capital held in business-related equities and reinvesting it into the core business. We will be doing the low capital-intensive solutions business to further narrow the gap with our peers. We are determined to do this, and we believe this is a unique growth opportunity that we have this capital gains from equity sales and starting this solutions business that will set us apart from global peers.
Regarding share buyback, as previously announced, taking into account the positive impact of EPS growth, M&A pipeline and other factors, we will execute JPY 220 billion this year. As a first step, we have already voted to spend JPY 110 billion initially.
The final key message is strengthening group governance. We had established group Audit Committee in April last year and have been implementing various initiatives that leverages external perspectives. Additionally, Tokio Marine and digital fire following the receipt of business improvement order in December 2 years ago, we have been advancing reforms to break away from industry rooted practices such as holding of shares, core business corporations, secondment of employees to agents under the new initiative.
Quantitative results are already emerging, positively contributing to our corporate value. We will continue to strive for further enhancement of corporate value by maintaining a balance between profit growth and governance at a high level. That much are the key messages. We will now move on to details. Please refer to Pages 4 and 5. Page 4 shows the progress of EPS growth under the current midterm plan and Page 5 shows the track record for the past 5 years, including comparison with peers. Our EPS growth is world top class in terms of both target and progress. And as shown on Page 5, you can see that this is driven by our robust organic growth.
Please turn to Page 6. Our goal is to grow EPS at a high angle while managing volatility. The horizontal axis of this slide shows the growth rate of EPS and the vertical axis shows its volatility. The upper right quadrant represents the ideal state. As shown in the track record, we have high chance of replicating this in the future. And as we put more focus on solutions business centered on fee-based services in the future, we believe that our position will shift further towards the upper right, enabling further reduction in volatility.
From here, we will delve deeper into the international business and Japan P&C business, which form the backbone of achieving world-class EPS growth. Please turn to Page 7. First, let's evaluate the progress of the current medium-term plan for the international business. The overall progress rate is low due to a conservative upward revision of expected capital loss related to CRE loans. But insurance underwriting is performing well on the right in brown, it's growing by 10.2% in profit with prior year loss reserves adjusted on an apple-to-apple basis.
Now please refer to Page 8 for the organic growth potential of North American business, which accounts for approximately 80% of international business profit. As shown on the left side of the slide, our North American business continues to achieve high profit growth through the 2 pillars of insurance underwriting in orange and asset management in green. In insurance underwriting, we have 2 lines of business, Specialty P&C and employee benefits. As shown in the upper right, we have a top-tier presence in the U.S. We are completely bottom line focused, and our combined ratio is, as you can see on the bottom of the bar chart, it is currently slightly over 90%. In asset management, shown on the lower right of the slide, we have consistently achieved returns significantly exceeding the market by leveraging Delphi's strength in credit management.
For fiscal '25, we anticipate a slight decline in returns due to current market conditions and uncertainties. But we will continue to deliver performance that significantly outperforms the market. Let's take a closer look at our North American business. Please turn to Page 9. As mentioned earlier, one of the 2 lines is Specialty P&C line. As you can see on the lower right at the very bottom, it consists over 100 products, including excess workers' comp and surety, all with low-risk correlations to each other, thus enabling us to achieve insurance underwriting portfolio that is less impacted by market cycles. We have established a price leaders position and a strong sales network across all product lines, achieving profit growth outperforming the peers as shown on the left side of the slide. It's below CAGR of 14%.
Peers, as you can see, is 5%, but we are outperforming the peers in terms of profit growth. The source of that is the disciplined underwriting strategy that is bottom line focused. As you can see on the lower right, the combined ratio is slightly over 90%, and it is stable at a low level. Please turn to Page 10. For the employee benefit line, this refers to the employee welfare business line such as disability insurance offered by Delphi and medical stop loss offered by HCC. By offering highly specialized absence management service and employee benefits, as you can see on the upper right, in a bundle with the insurance policy, we are able to leverage our competitive advantage and maintain high top line growth of positive 10% growth.
Additionally, by setting rates and selecting risks based on loss costs, we have stabilized the combined ratio at around 95% despite fierce competition and have achieved steady profit growth. To steadily increase insurance underwriting profit in these 2 lines, it is essential to control the impact of inflation, and we still remain resilient. Please turn to Page 11. The slide shows the reserve ratio by inflation type for our North American business.
First, regarding inflation related to goods and services. Our North American business is centered on specialty insurance. Thus, proportion of property and auto insurance has always been low, making the business structure relatively less susceptible to the impact of inflation. Regarding social inflation in the middle, we have been closely monitoring this area and taking proactive measures for some time. Specifically, we proactively increased reserves in 2019, advanced settlements and over 90% of high limit policies that easily become the target of litigation had their limits reduced to $5 million or less. As a result, we have been taking down reserves for the past few years, attesting that the current reserve level is sufficient and appropriate.
Finally, the medical and wages category on the right, which accounts for more than half of our reserves is related to medical stop loss and excess workers' comp. We are controlling the impact through proactive rate increases and raising the self-insured retention by policyholders. Please go to Page 12. Page 12 shows the impact of L.A. wildfire that occurred in January this year. We have already strictly controlled our exposure to natural catastrophes and leveraged our risk selection expertise, meaning that we do not accept risks that do not offer commensurate return. As a result, you can see that we have been able to keep the impact on combined ratio low compared to other players.
Please turn to Page 13. This section discusses our unique strength in asset management at North American operations. First, regarding AUM, as shown in the upper right, it has grown in line with the expansion of insurance underwriting and is expected to exceed $71.1 billion. It's expected to exceed $70 billion this fiscal year in AUM. The source of this capital is sticky insurance liability, enabling us to invest without being swayed by short-term market fluctuations and allows us to execute hold till maturity investment strategy.
As a result, our track record in terms of yield shown in the bottom right demonstrates that we consistently achieve high yields relative to the market and that these yields are highly reproducible. Left of the slide shows trend in income gains, demonstrating our conviction that we can achieve steady growth also in asset management. Please turn to Page 14. Our international business is not limited to North America. Brazil is a prime example of how we can capture high growth in emerging markets and achieving strong profit growth. Our Brazilian business has gained strong support from customers and brokers. Market share of our flagship product, automobile insurance has more than doubled over the past 10 years and size has grown significantly to be in excess of JPY 300 billion with premium income. We are also continuing to reform our processes using DX and IT technologies, achieving industry-leading cost efficiency and profitability.
Please turn to Page 15. So far, we have explained our overseas organic growth strategy. Now I would like to touch on our M&A strategy. Since the acquisition of Kiln in 2008, we have continued a virtuous cycle in which one successful M&A attracts the next high-quality opportunity, resulting in ROI of over 20%, as indicated on the upper right. This significantly exceeds our cost of capital, and this also contributes in pushing up the ROE of entire business portfolio. We are always searching for opportunities. We are well prepared and have sufficient capital for acquisitions. While valuations remain high, if the market softens, then I'm sure more prime opportunities will rise. Bolt-on type of acquisitions will continue to happen, but I'm sure larger M&A opportunities will emerge not so far away in the future. That is my gut feeling.
Sales of business-related equities will generate excess capital, but we will not rush into acquisitions just because of that. Instead, we have been perseverance so far, and we will continue to adhere to the acquisition discipline outlined on the left of the slide as we have always done in the past, and we will constantly look for opportunities. Next, I will explain about Japan P&C business. Please turn to Page 16.
First is the progress of profit to current MTP in Japan P&C business. Due to the deterioration of loss ratio in the automobile insurance business, we are behind the plan. But as I have always said, we will take measures such as rate increases. So we expect to achieve the profit target of the current medium-term plan. I will give a more detailed explanation. Please turn to Page 17. As shown in the lower left of the slide, the combined ratio of the 3 companies are trending downwards, but our profitability is favorable compared to peers.
We will maintain this relatively advantageous profitability while we are aiming for double-digit percentage growth in the current midterm plan. The source of the organic growth that formed the basis for this growth are the 3 points shown on the lower right of the slide. If the traditional noninsurance competition such as holding of stocks, business cooperation and human resource support is eliminated and competition becomes a true test of insurance strength, we believe that the renew initiative will allow us to advance and accelerate profit improvement and strengthen also the foundation of growth even further. So please turn to Page 18.
First is the advantage we have in underwriting. Upper left of this slide shows the trend in loss ratio for fire insurance where the differences in underwriting capability show up clearly. As you can see, our loss ratio is approximately 10 percentage points lower than that of the peers. As promised, in the last midterm plan, we achieved a combined ratio of below 100%. And within the current midterm plan or rather within even this fiscal year, we will be able to beat the cost of capital. This strong underwriting capability stems from our global standard underwriting strategy, where domestic and international personnel with extensive expertise and experience collaborate to ensure global coordination in underwriting operations, reinsurance arrangements and product supply.
Additionally, the field level underwriting capability or the judgment skills of the frontline staff is crucial for strategic execution. Our underwriters are disciplined in their approach while leveraging the insights from overseas group companies. The lower left of the slide shows one of the initiatives under the renew project we presented last November, namely efforts to improve profitability. The approach of tiering policies according to profitability and implementing measures tailored to each tier, for example, Tier 2, Tier 3 is a method that PHLY has traditionally used, and we have adopted it at Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire. By thoroughly implementing this initiative, we aim to achieve even lower loss ratios. Going forward, we will continue to raise underwriting excellence through group integrated management.
Please turn to Page 19. Looking at the global rate cycle, while some lines are beginning to show signs of softening, Japan is moving in the opposite direction with its main lines continuing to harden. First, on the left of the slide for auto insurance, the combined ratio has risen to nearly 100% due primarily to inflation, marking the worst performance in the past decade or even longer. Despite continuous rate increases over the past 2 years, we have not caught up yet at all, and we will implement a significant rate increase in 2025 in an advanced manner. This will enable us to achieve the target combined ratio for auto insurance of below 95% level by fiscal '26 as promised.
On the right side, for fire insurance, as you know, we have implemented rate increases almost every year since I became the CEO in 2019. We have also done product revisions. As a result, the combined ratio for fiscal '24 improved to 80% range. We expect to achieve ROR of 7% or higher equivalent to cost of capital in fiscal '25. However, this is not the end of the journey. This is still insufficient when compared to company-wide ROR. So we will continue to work on this in an unwavering manner.
We are also constantly working to transform our insurance underwriting portfolio. This is Page 20. On the left-hand side, there are 5 markets in Japan with much opportunity for growth. While Japan is a leading country in addressing societal challenges, the penetration rate of specialty insurance is by no means high. As shown on the right, on Page 20, our specialty insurance has been showing top line growth every year as planned, and we believe that there are large untapped opportunities.
Going forward, we will continue to provide products by fully introducing and leveraging the knowledge of our overseas group companies, which have strengths in highly specialized insurance products and will grow Japanese style specialty insurance with low and stable combined ratios, mainly in the SME market. Please turn to Page 21. Through the implementation of renew, we will realize a customer-oriented, high-quality and independent distribution channel. As shown on the right, we have recently formulated a quality evaluation system for agents and have already started to review the agency commission system from a quality-based perspective to make it more balanced based on quality. For agents that struggle to operate independently, we are taking measures such as division of operations and are leading the industry in structural reform.
As shown on the left-hand side in the graph, our expense ratio has consistently been 2 to 3 points lower than peers. By carrying out our structural reforms of distribution from customers' perspective, both admin expenses and agency commissions will be reduced. After completion, agency commissions will be in the 18% range and expense ratio will be below 30%. We are committed to executing the reform. Let me now turn to the solution business that will drive new growth and take our company's growth to the next level. Please refer to Pages 22 and 23. Page 22, as shown in the pie chart on the slide, the world's economic losses are expanding dramatically. And I think it is fair to say that our core business, the insurance business is a growth industry in this context. Coupled with the widening protection gap, there are huge growth opportunities for the solutions business that reduces loss and risk.
Tokio Marine has been preparing for this for some time. I believe that our group's attempt to capture growth opportunities in both the insurance and solutions businesses is unique to us and rarely found amongst our global peers. Page 23 shows an example of the unique values we offer in disaster resilience, measures to be taken when the risk of flood damage caused by a typhoon occurs. This year, ID&E, which includes Nippon Koei, the #1 engineering consulting firm in Japan, joined our group. By combining their high-level engineering technology with our vast risk information and insurance payment data, we can offer highly effective recurrence prevention measures. This means that if a similar typhoon hits again, the chances of suffering the same kind of damage will be reduced or eliminated, meaning that our business and services will enable us in the society to build back better.
Please turn to Pages 24 and 25. Page 24 illustrates the world we aim to create through Build Back Better. Unfortunately, the reality is that there are not many customers and business partners who are fully prepared with disaster prevention and mitigation measures. Therefore, in the model case, we start from the point where a disaster occurs and our customer is affected. If a customer policyholder is affected by a disaster, we will pay claims. And if we use a portion of this insurance claim for disaster prevention and mitigation solutions and implement measures to build back better and improve resilience, we will be able to mitigate and prevent the next damage in addition to restoration.
If we can create such a world, our insurance underwriting portfolio will also become more resilient, and we will be able to keep the insurance premiums we receive from customers at stable and relatively low level. We will, as a group, work hard to achieve this. Let me briefly touch on the future growth potential in disaster resilience. So please turn to Page 25. Disaster prevention and mitigation is a very broad concept, but the current market size for the engineering consulting market alone is JPY 0.8 trillion.
Breakdown in the diagram on the left shows public works accounting for the majority. This is where ID&E has the largest share in Japan. And since Japan is a country prone to natural disasters, the need for engineering consulting related to disaster prevention and mitigation is expected to continue to increase. But as shown in green in the diagram in the middle, there is room for growth in private disaster prevention in particular. Total market size is expected to soon reach JPY 1.5 trillion. In order to capture this private sector's potential growth, contact with customers as well as opportunities to stimulate needs are necessary. Previously, ID&E has hardly engaged in private sector disaster prevention and mitigation. But in a sense, Tokio Marine has a great opportunity in the form of insurance claim payment. And therefore, now that ID&E has joined our group, has become an important member of our group, we will be able to capture a wide range of restoration demand. And I believe that is our role.
Please refer to Page 26. The foundation to ensure we deliver our business strategies I have discussed so far is our globally integrated group management, which is now in its 10th year. Quality of our management and business has been improving over time by placing the excellent talent acquired through M&A in the right positions across countries and regions. Important management issues, challenges are decided through discussion by gathering highly specialized talent and wisdom. This means that we have established a system that allows us to always take good risks. For example, Don Sherman, shown in the upper right corner, has extensive experience in asset management, having served as CEO of one of the largest unlisted mortgage companies in the United States and has made a significant contribution to the expansion of the group's investment income since joining the group in 2012.
Next to him, Susan Rivera has won the Insurance Women of the Year Award this year that recognized outstanding women in the insurance industry. She is making contribution on a global basis to the sophistication of underwriting, which is the foundation of our business by leveraging her extensive network of contacts. Please turn to Page 27. These results are actually having a positive impact on our business performance. As you see on the left, in the 4 areas of revenue, investment, capital and cost, we are currently generating annual synergies of $604 million. Direct premiums written through revenue synergies are approaching $1 billion. If we were to realize the $604 million in profits through an acquisition, the necessary acquisition price would be $8.8 billion. Without having to make a large-scale acquisition exceeding JPY 1 trillion, group companies are able to generate synergies at no additional cost through spontaneous discussions between one another. This is one of our unique strengths.
Please turn to Page 28. Our current ROE of 19.8% is among the best in the Japanese financial sector. But as shown in the slide, we recognize that we have not yet caught up with our global peers. In addition to continuing our world-class EPS growth, we will steadily bring our ROE closer to the level of global peers through our current business portfolio transformation, which is to say redirecting surplus capital created by selling business-related equities to the insurance business with higher ROR and expanding the solutions business with lower capital requirement. These are 2 unique drivers that global peers do not have. Let me give some color on business portfolio transformation.
Please go to Page 29. The slide shows our progress towards achieving 0 business-related equities. The amount sold in FY '24 was JPY 922 billion, well above the initial plan of JPY 600 billion. In fiscal 2025, sales of business-related equities are set at JPY 600 billion, but we are now more likely than ever to achieve our goal of reducing business-related equities to 0 by the end of FY '29 as well as our target of achieving approximately 20% of IFRS net assets by the end of fiscal '26.
Please turn to Page 30, ROE. ROE is calculated by dividing ROR and ESR and business-related equities are a major factor in raising ROE. Currently, our ROR, excluding gains on sales of business-related equities, is 17.9%, which is composed of 20.4% ROR from our main business and 6% ROR from business-related equities. In other words, it is clear that business-related equities are a drag factor for our ROR. So as I mentioned earlier, we will advance sales as much as possible and reallocate the surplus capital generated to our main business with a higher ROR. And if we are not blessed with opportunities for good M&A or risk taking, we will buy back our own shares. This is the market-based governance, which is also our true value, and we will raise our overall ROE through disciplined capital management.
Next is on dividend. Please turn to Page 31. Once again, the basis of our shareholder return is dividends, and we will continue to increase DPS in line with profit growth. As our profits for fiscal '24, JPY 1.2 trillion have exceeded our forecast, we will increase dividends by JPY 10 compared to the figure announced in November last year. As our profit target for fiscal '25 will also exceed JPY 1 trillion, the 5-year average of adjusted net income, which is our source of dividend will also increase. Taking this into account, we have forecasted a DPS of JPY 210 for fiscal '25, an increase of JPY 38 and a DPS growth of 22%. This will be the 14th consecutive year of dividend increase.
As you all know, we will introduce IFRS and ICS from fiscal '26 and will review our KPIs accordingly. We are currently considering this, including studying European peers who have already produced -- introduced the standards and plan to provide an update in November of this year. Regardless of the circumstances, our intention to achieve world-class EPS growth and consistent DPS growth remains unchanged. Next, please turn to Page 32 for information on share buyback. Our current ESR is at a satisfactory level of 149%. In light of this, we have decided to execute share buyback for fiscal 2025 and at level that will boost EPS growth by 2%, taking into consideration the M&A pipeline, business environment and other factors. The current plan for FY '25 share buyback is JPY 220 billion for the full year. And as a first step, JPY 110 billion share buyback has been approved.
Please turn to Page 33. Our efforts to strengthen governance in light of the series of incidents are progressing steadily. The slide at the top half shows the activities of the Group Audit Committee, which was established in April last year. By making full use of external perspectives, we will strengthen governance, increase corporate value and ensure we realize high-quality management. That is all for me. We will continue to seek a healthy balance between growth and governance and manage our business in a way that directly links our business purpose and strategy with the resulting profits and contribution to stakeholders. I look forward to your continued support. Thank you very much for your kind attention.
[Interpreted] Thank you very much, Mr. Komiya. We will now open the floor for questions. We kindly ask one question per person at a time. I will call on you among those who have raised your hand who are participating in person, and our staff will bring a microphone to you. There is an explanation given to the Japanese audience.
[Foreign Language]
Please use the chat box below for questions. To cancel your question, please let us know using the chat box. Due to interest in time, we may not be able to take all your questions, in which case, the IR Group or the Global Communications Group, we'll get back to you at a later date. Your understanding is very much appreciated.
[Foreign Language]
Firm SMBC, Mr. Muraki, please.
2. Question Answer
[Interpreted] From SMBC Nikko, my name is Muraki. I have a question to Mr. Komiya. On Page 28, I'm asking you this question. And so in 2019, you were appointed to be the CEO and it was 7% type of ROE. And then adjusted net income was about JPY 280 billion, and the dividend payment was about JPY 130 billion. And adjusted net income, of course, including the gains, it's in excess of JPY 1 trillion, and you have a plan to increase dividend. So financially, it looks like you have no worries. However, every year, we have seen many incidents surface, and I have asked you some questions on those incidents in the past, I recall.
In the past 6 years, Tokio Marine Group 6 years ago compared to what you had imagined 6 years ago, has it become what you wanted to achieve? And you continue to say that you are still in the middle of a journey, but then there must be some issues that must be passed on to Mr. Koike to continue to work on. So what are those issues?
[Interpreted] Thank you for your question. At the end of June, there will be an AGM. And then until my last moment, I am exerting all my efforts as a CEO. And so in terms of the look back, thank you for the question to allow me to do some look back. Since I became the CEO in 2019, since then, in Japan, we have seen unprecedented level of typhoon. We had COVID. And then we had social inflation and other types of inflation. And then globally, we have seen wars taking place.
Internally, we have had many incidents such as the Taiwan shock. And there was also a turnaround of some group entities such as Kiln. And I feel like we were able to overcome them. But then, again, in Japan, the governance issues rose, which we continue to work on right now in an ongoing manner. Since I was appointed, I am saying that we are at a tipping point once in a century. And I kept on saying that as I have executed various reforms regarding TMNF. If they don't do it now, when are they going to do it? And if you don't do it now, who is going to do it? That is the kind of a spirit we have in reforming the company, and we are trying to change not just this entity, but the entire industry. What I have been saying is that we have a bigger portfolio, anything can happen to any part of our portfolio.
Indeed, we have seen many things happen. But in order to overcome those difficulties and also by also experiencing them and resolving issues, it has made us tougher. And that is part of the characteristics of Tokio Marine Group. We have been tenacious. We have always been working hard in order to achieve risk diversification and also integrated group management on global scale. When I was appointed, I said resilient and robust company. That's the type of a company I want to make. Robust and agile company is what I wanted to create. I'm not sure if it was agile, but there is mutual respect, there is mutual cooperation, collaboration. There is a better sense of ownership among each entities.
Overall, capability of the group has been enhanced. And so if there is one issue in one corner of the group and they're suffering, there are other group companies that come over and help. And performance-wise, because we are all augmenting each other and some weaker parts are there, but then some stronger parts are also there. So on a group-wide basis, I'm sure I can say that we have become resilient and responsive. And perhaps we are even tougher and more robust now.
In Japan, the important thing is that we can compete on global scale and create entities that can compete on global scale. So the past 6 years, I don't know how far I was able to come, but then integrating the intelligence from different corners of the world in order to come problem, that capability we have gained. When I became the CEO, the decision-makers who participated from the global side, there were only 2 people, but then 30% of executive management today is overseas personnel, and they are the source of our group capability.
The second point, something that we said we must do is redefining insurance, and that is about solutions business. This is not just a disaster prevention and mitigation. But in solutions business, we had to develop that to become a major pillar of business. We had to a momentum and pave the new way for further growth. perhaps we were able to do that. And when we try to create new value, when we try to create new business, at the same time, we need to make sure that we need to be developing talent and creating good culture so that it gets passed down to the next generation and more generation to come later. That was my important duty as CEO.
On a global basis, we need to have more personnel from domestic and international who can manage this group on global scale. So Tokio Marine Leadership Institute, TLI was established 2 years ago in order to develop talent. I had tried very hard and perhaps 1 year ago, before we accelerated sales of business-related equities in terms of performance, market cap, et cetera, of course, we have more ways to go. We have more room for improvement, but I have seen what we have achieved so far and the landscape that I am seeing in front of my eyes has changed over the past 6 years.
As Muraki-san said, this 45 degrees angle of growth in ROE and also EPS growth, the journey along these 2 lines will continue. If you were reading a book, we are about to turn a page into a next chapter. Perhaps I was able to turn a page and facilitate people to go on to the next chapter. As it was written in our report yesterday and the day before, in and out strategy, execution of the strategy, enhancement of ROE, capital usage had to be better and therefore unprofitable contracts, we had to stop writing them. We need to make sure customers are convinced when we offer our business. The high cost structure had to be slashed and had to be changed. And not only on the individual company level, but more transparent, more rational businesses. That is what we had to have so that we become more attractive, we become more attractive market and more attractive industry. That's what we want to change into.
So lastly, the time that I spent with the stakeholders, I value this time the most of all the time I had as a CEO and in the journey along the way to all of the analysts and also investors who are even attending here today the time that I have as the time that we're having today, I value the most. And every time I was very serious in talking to you, community.
While I did that, there were good news, bad news, suffering times, good times and bad times. But every time whatever happened from the market, you have encouraged me. Other times, you have reprimanded me with some comments. And you have always given me hints and suggestions for me to move forward. And I took your voices into review and also reestablish our strategies. Your voices are very much at the center of how I manage the group and everyone in the market and everyone on the Tokio Marine side including myself, we have together developed this business. And you were like a coach, a co-runner who was always running along my side. So I wanted to thank you for that.
Including Insurance, but there will be further risk of diversification. We will be more global. There will be more integrated group management. We will be publishing up ourselves so that we become a solution provider in solving societal issues. And we want to further express Tokio Marine as a global brand, and that's what I expect to see. And I will still stay on support the rest of the members develop Tokio Marine and upgrade Tokio Marine to that higher level. Thank you for your question.
So the 6 years I was able to hear how much effort you had exerted into serving as a CEO. So thank you.
Natsumu Tsujino, BofA. We will bring a microphone to you.
You will be introducing IFRS for the next fiscal year. And you have not elaborated or given some color -- much color on that. Excluding gains from business-related equities, adjusted net income, profit in IFRS, how will that grow? Or how much will there be an increase and the increase in adjusted net income under IFRS will include life insurance, but in life insurance, depending on how you calculate risk assets the amount that will be released will be -- will differ. And what will be your thinking towards shareholder return. So how much will be the profit for IFRS? And when are you going to come up with adjusted IFRS, what is going to be adjusted -- sorry, these are very detailed questions, 1 after the other, but if you could give me -- give us some color on that. That's very much appreciated.
Thank you for your question. I would like to ask Mr. Okada, our Group CFO, to respond to that question. But as I said earlier, we will provide guidance by fall of this year. And through summer, I think they will have enough time for us to engage in discussions with you and how you think about KPI and shareholder return and also about life insurance. I'm hoping to have more discussions before we release our guideline in fall. So let me ask Okada-san to respond to this question.
This is Page 40 in the slide deck, and this has been -- this is not new. Under JGAAP, it's adjusted under adjusted net income, and we have adjusted ROE and also dividend payout ratio. This KPI definition will shift to a new definition from FY '26. And as was mentioned by Komiya-san, we're having discussions internally, we will take -- would like to reflect input and feedback from outside people like yourselves. By transferring to IFRS, we -- there will be improved comparability with our global peers. And so whether to call it adjusted IFRS, we're still considering it, but we want to focus on the comparability with our global peers -- able to compare apples-to-apples, but unfortunately, we have not decided on our definition yet.
And is this going to be on a trial calculation basis, but unrealized losses will have an impact of JPY 20 billion or so. And for domestic life from JGAAP to IFRS, JPY 30 billion and goodwill, so several billions of yen will be factored in. In the meantime, under IFRS, sales of business-related equities are not reflected in JGAAP. But whether that will be included in profit assets or not is still undecided at this moment. As for definition of profit that will be used to decide on our dividend.
We are currently using 5-year average, but whether that will continue to be used is still being deliberated. And as was mentioned earlier, the introduction is going to be officially from FY '26, but what with our investors and analysts, we want to make sure we have good understanding of you and therefore, in fall of this year, details of the KPI in definition after introduction of IFRS and the shareholder return beyond FY '26 will be explained. And as was mentioned by Komiya-san earlier, shareholder return policy, when we articulate this, EPS growth world's highest and DBS growth in line with that EPS growth will be maintained, and we would like to take a comprehensive approach in coming up with our policy going forward. That is all for me.
Now with regards to shareholder return, I have had engagements with our investors and analysts. And I've been saying over time that before and after introduction of IFRS and ICS, well, before Tokio Marine before and after. And if you compare Tokio Marine with other peers, we don't want to disappoint our investors and analysts. I have been saying that many times, and we want to engage you and get your feedback before we come up with any announcements on this.
Watanabe-san from Daiwa, please.
My name is Watanabe from Daiwa Securities. I have a question regarding the Japan P&C about pricing strategy on Page 19. Regarding auto insurance, within '25, you will be hiking rates. Usually, you would do so in January of '26, but when are you going to be hiking the rate and also by how much of a price increase would you do for your auto this year? And also for fire, you said that still it is inadequate, you were undercharging. And so any possibilities of further price increase and any more profitability improvement you're expecting for fire.
CRSO, Hosojima-san will give you the details regarding the domestic P&C auto as well as fire insurance plans, including the potential price hike. So Hosojima-san, please?
My name is Hosojima. Thank you for your question. So in auto insurance, last time in the IR session, the unit claim has gone up and also frequency, the decline is only a lenient decline that we are seeing. So compared to the expectation we had, the profitability is deteriorating. In the first half of this year, it was in line with our expectation. But then in the second half, the CPI expectation by BOJ has gone up. And the unit claim payment compared to CPI, it has gone up a lot more than the average CPI because of auto parts, advancement of auto parts, et cetera. But then more so than the CPI growth, the unit claim cost is going up even more, and it's because of parts and because of labor, et cetera, the labor cost increase was -- had to be passed on, and that is social norms that's been practiced in the industry.
And so I believe you asked that question based on the backdrop. So conventionally, we will do the price hike in January of '26 that will be the timing for the regular price hike. However, the profitability environment being so tough for us without waiting for January, we would do the price hike and also bigger price hike earlier than January of '26.
Nothing has been decided at this point. So for the rate of increase and also which month we will be doing the price hike once we make the final decision, we would like to make the announcements. And so that was regarding auto insurance. And then regarding fire insurance, compared to the past, the profitability has improved. And finally, it is now covering the cost of capital in terms of profitability.
So we have thus so far almost there because in '26, the plan was to cover the cost of the capital. That was the original plan. But due to rate increases, and also measures taken for the fire insurance results and also more disciplined underwriting. It looks like we will be achieving this target in terms of profitability within this fiscal year of fiscal '25. So that's 1 year early. Going forward, so the price hikes that have taken place once the long-term contracts come to maturity, the price hike impact will surface. And so there will be a continued improvement and also considering the burden on the customer side, we need to make fire insurance a sustainable scheme. To do so, we have to be able to pay when customers are really in need or in trouble. And so to some time -- to some extent, they will have to burden a part of the cost or when the damage is small, they need to burden the cost, but then we want to mitigate the price to increase to some extent so that the schema become sustainable.
And while we do that, we believe fire insurance will have improved profitability. As for the rate of auto increase, when you say that it's higher than the usual, are you speaking about it compared to last time, it was 3.5%. Is it going to be bigger than that? The recent price hike this time, it's going to be a bigger price hike than the previous hikes we have done. In any case, in auto, in fire, we have to look at the economic rationale, we have to also consider affordability by policyholders by looking at both sides, we will be managing them. For fire, we have done a series of price hikes, but also how we underwrite, how we design products, et cetera, there will be some issues or revisions that we might have to do.
JPMorgan, Sato-san.
Sato from JPMorgan. Page 32 in the slide deck, ESR target range and adjustment of capital. I asked this question 6 months ago and sorry, I'm repeating the same question. Looking back on your explanation in the past 1 year ago, ESR was 140%, market cap of 2%, EPS growth 2% contributing to that. And therefore, adjustment of JPY 200 billion was announced. And 6 months ago, when it was 147% in the first half, business-related equities was more heavily sold in the first half, and therefore, the level is too high, is overshooting. That was your explanation.
And this time, with 149%, it is above the target range of 140% and yet, whether there was an explanation that remains unchanged with regards to capital level adjustment. Why was this explanation not changed because of the M&A pipeline, which is not very tangible or visible or with the introduction of ICS, you're having a better visibility in terms of the impact of that. But compared to a year ago, explanation hasn't changed. What is the reason?
I see. Thank you very much for your question. I would like to ask Mr. Okada, our Group CFO, to explain. But I would also like to say that we have been trying to be transparent as much as possible and be sharing what we can at every point in time. And as you said, ESR is an important element in order to measure the -- how sound we are, and it is also an important factor that the market is watching and we are trying to be able to communicate at a transparent -- in a transparent way what we can communicate to you. So let me ask Okada-san to respond.
Yes. Thank you very much for that. My comments might overlap what was mentioned. But with regards to share buyback, ESR and capital level adjustment, but we're also looking at the business market environment and investment opportunities and also impact on EPS growth. This is also taken into account from this fiscal year. And so it's not just that we will decide on the amount of share buyback by looking at the EPS level -- ESR level alone.
And looking at the current business environment and as was mentioned earlier, there is impact of Trump tariff policies, and there are uncertainties in the market. But for us, in terms of new business investment or additional risk-taking opportunity could arise. So it's 147% to 149%, which is a 2% increase. But as you see on Page 32, the risk volume, risk amount hasn't changed over the past 6 months.
And in this context, our current assumption is that we're taking into account the impact of EPS growth and therefore, JPY 220 billion for the full year seem to be relevant. And we will also take a fresh look at the interim. And there is, therefore, a possibility that we could revise the full year share buyback amount.
If I may, with the introduction of ICS, your way of thinking towards target range, like, say, the broad breadth of target range? Could that change?
You're talking about the range of target range. Currently, it's 100% to 140%. Will our thinking change with the introduction of ICS, this is kind of an overlap with [indiscernible] question, and it's on Page 40. With the introduction of IFRS -- ICS is scheduled to be introduced in FY '26. And the definition of ESR and the target range for ESR is currently being deliberated.
We would like to seek your input and feedback as well. And we're hoping to share with us our guideline in fall of this year. So the points that were just raised by Sato-san just now, we're hoping to find time to get your feedback from our investors and analysts.
Sakamaki-san from Mizuho Securities, please.
My name is Sakamaki from Mizuho. I have a question. On Page 25, regarding the solutions business, you have more pages allocated for solutions business and talking about the expected future, you have the public spending, you have some room for growth in the private sector and what you expect the market to be. So in relationship to ID&E, how much of a market share expansion. Do you expect your market share according to this material is 10%. What's the speed of market share expansion and also how large do you want your business in this market to be? And also if you go to Page 28, for the ROE solutions business contribution to enhanced ROE in the next midterm plan? What aspirations do you have in terms of ROE with solutions business in place?
Thank you for your question. So regarding disaster prevention, mitigation, can I answer your question surrounding that area. Yes. So on the point. I would like to point to Namatame-san to talk about it.
My name is Namatame. Thank you for your question. So in the solutions business, as Komiya-san mentioned, for the next generation, we want to expand and enhance our capabilities, and this is one of the most important areas that we will be working on within the -- [ Muraki-san ] in charge of the Solutions business.
Together, we have been telling you that the disaster prevention mitigation and also health care, decarbonization, mobility and pet are the important areas where we want to expand our business areas, and there are some special initiatives. ID&E within that is -- was more leading in the effort because in disaster prevention and mitigation in order to materialize it as a business, our capability, our economic result had to be there with ID&E. And that is why we have decided to acquire ID&E on November 19, and we have integrated the 2 businesses. Now it has become a wholly owned subsidiary as of May this year. ID&E, together with them, what kind of businesses we want to be doing together as Komiya-san mentioned, let me add some words to that. So first, with ID&E. This is a business company. They have [ Nihon Co ] and Nippon Koei. So they have a construction consulting, disaster mitigation, prevention, services available and their market share they have a leading market share with a [ distant second ] and below.
And overseas, they have ODA projects and they have been developing various social infrastructures and also in private sector, they have been building intelligent buildings, city redevelopment with the disaster prevention and mitigation perspectives, city building, urban planning, et cetera, are their areas of forte. Their expertise in both domestic and international is extremely at high level. With that in the backdrop, as we integrated the 2 businesses, 2 sides had to come together to create new businesses. And we have had some long time having discussion over what we could do together, those discussions continue as today, and we are trying to materialize them.
What we have been doing so far at ID&E they have a public area, which has been their strength. And the government is facilitating making Japan a stronger land and there will be further growth to be expected to from this project. And on top of that, most recently in the Noto Peninsula earthquake we had last year, natural disasters in Japan, are becoming larger in scale. The situation is exacerbating.
So recovery and rebuilding and also preventing further disasters to bring us damage are some of the areas where we expect the business to grow. Already Noto Peninsula on January 1, the earthquake occurred from the second of January. We have closed the area. And then from the most difficult areas, the work had started towards disaster mitigation and prevention. And so that is what they do as an example. What we want to further work on is the private sector disaster mitigation prevention. So for example, there are various government-led initiatives, also voices from the stakeholders. In the private sector, there is a heightened awareness over of disaster prevention and mitigation. The voice is only getting bigger day by day, as you may know. So we still have a lot more to go.
We have not gotten enough input from the private sector. Therefore, through insurance, we have been working to protect policyholders through reinsurance. But then on top of that, we can also provide them disaster mitigation prevention advisers, for example, at data centers. intelligent facilities or where disaster prevention requirement is so high. There are various projects taking place, and we are thinking about where we can intervene and provide value. There are some redevelopment or reuse of land, land held by private sector companies, a facility that could be used as disaster prevention mitigation also as a commercial facility. And so those projects -- there are various projects underway in this area. And so we want to be preemptive in other words, because we have ID&E, we want to be utilizing the capabilities held by ID&E so that we will be able to create new businesses and also allows us to grow even further.
Thank you. Today, on this slide, we have talked about flood damage from typhoon as an example. So specifically, what kind of services we can offer, we will make a more clear list and share that with you. There are basically 2 things we want to do. The first is that because they have not really done private sector work, they were public spending centered. And so whatever they have, we can just move that or transform that be in private sector. And then we can offer that to through Tokio Marine on its customer base. So that this is just a fight of the time before the next 1 hits. So we need to be penetrating this as quickly as possible. Their profit is about JPY 10 billion. By expanding into the private area, how quickly they can expand is a key.
Another area is that the bundled sales or merged sales of insurance and disaster prevention and mitigation, it's unprecedented the new product that will become available. And then lastly, if I may add, the ID&E will be, of course, disaster prevention mitigation. They also have like urban development and energy business. In every area they have, it's all related to the solutions business, health care, mobility, decarbonization, there's a lot of overlap between the 2.
So the third point is the new synergy to be created from the areas that overlap already. As Namatame-San explained, mostly it will be the 2 major points. And so existing services, how quickly can we expand that into the private sector business and then for new services and products in May, we have just integrated with them, and there's PMI, there's a strategy meeting co-participated by the ID&E side and Tokio Marine side. So I hope to be able to share with you more specific stories in the near future.
Niwa-san from Citi.
Niwa from Citi. Page 28, long-term ROE, your message, business model. Those are some questions I would like to ask. Six months ago, when we looked at this slide, 20% ROE target, I think that was the end of the graph. Of course, you've been always calling for a high -- 20% or higher, so how is the ROE expectations going up? And I would like you to comment on 3 aspects. To be -- you're becoming a company that will -- can generate ROE of 20%. And how can you achieve that? And what are some risks associated to that? If you look at your global peers, ROE in insurance business is about 20%. That is my understanding. And if possible, use leverage or change the mix or going beyond insurance, it could be your options. So what are some ideas that you have in updating this slide on Page 28.
Thank you for your question. Again, I would like to ask our CFO to respond to this question. But at this point in time, becoming comparable to our global peers and increase our ROE and our drag factor, which has been, as you know, there are multiple factors that we have been sharing with you, and we want to make sure that we have the right initiatives in place and new added values, new businesses have been launched, and our organic capabilities have been enhanced. So now there is a particular goal -- it's not that there is a particular goal that we're aiming for, but there is a long way to go. It's kind of, I regret to say that, but in order for us to catch up with our gold peers, we need to deliver on what we need to do and also envision what we need to aim for. So let me ask Mr. Okada, our CFO, to respond to your question.
Thank you for your question. Page 28 has been upgraded, updated from a previous slide, and you might have interpreted as we've changed our target. But at the time we started our midterm plan of 20% of high end ROE. Basically, as you see on Page 30, business-related equity sales will be executed over 6 years. And what will be released out of that will first be used for conventional insurance business. And therefore, 20% ROE including business equities or excluding business-related equities, 16%.
And what we have been expecting to include under or higher portion is inorganic growth, capital released after sales of business-related equities. If that's going to be used to -- for M&A, we could achieve ROE of 20% or higher.
Well we announced this in fall of last year, our acquisition of ID&E was not announced, but it's a capital-light business. That has now become a part of our group. And therefore, there is a highly likelihood that we will be able to achieve 20% or higher in ROE. That's reflected in this updated page. So as was mentioned in terms of leverage, and I'm kind of repeating myself about on Page 48 -- or not Page 48. When we acquired Pure, we used capitalized securities, and therefore, using -- this is Page 84, so when it comes to large M&As, we will use hybrid securities and revisit our security makeup. But as we have been saying, are we going to use capitalization to increase ROE?
No. ROE is going to increase as a result of our improved growth. So coming back to Page 48, the rise in -- to Page 28. We're not expecting any leverage reflected in this, but organic growth and M&A should contribute to this growth in ROE. And if there is fee business with low capital requirement that will add to it, will improve the ROE incremental growth. That is what we mean -- that is all for me.
Thank you for that. So time is limited, but Takemura-san from Morgan Stanley and then Mashima-san from Tokai Tokyo. And then on telephone from Sasaki-san, Otsuka-san and from GIC, we have 3 questions through chat, and so we will cover that much before we close. So Takemura-san please, from Morgan Stanley.
From Morgan Stanley MUFG. My name is Takemura. I have some questions about the insurance underwriting, market share-related question. So this time, your business practice is changing a lot. And for market share, whatever is happening they might have worked favorable to you. But then when you start to see these changes, are you seeing any changes from the market share? Is your market share going up or going down because of these changes? And also your unit premium for auto, if it's going up, you might lose some customers. But can you say that that's not going to happen and why.
Thank you for your question. Share meaning market share. Can I clarify your question?
Yes.
So far, based on the renewed initiative, has that brought any changes? Or what do we expect to happen to market changes? What is happening with the market share situation now? I believe that was your question. So let me give that to Kitazawa-san, please.
Kitazawa-san, in charge of sales, will answer your question. Thank you for the question. So first of all, the status quo is that with the sales of business-related equities and also because of the merger of MS&AD, I believe that our business coverage area is even getting bigger because there are some companies who we couldn't even talk to are asking for inquiries. And we have also concluded contracts with those untapped customers. Market share like the past, each company, we don't really exchange market share. So this is only a ballpark figure.
But at the end of fiscal '24, so this is as of the end of March, what we have analyzed as market share is that we have shown the biggest growth in terms of market share within the P&C sector. The market is now becoming more liquid, and there is inherent value with insurance and also the plus alpha value brought by solutions will have a bigger role to play. And so as we go through this change, we want to provide them with higher value.
From Shirota-san, the President of DMF, will add some comments.
So as Kitazawa-san said, in terms of the competitive landscape, I think your question is asking what's happening to the landscape. So first of all, as Kitazawa-san said, with the sell-down of equities, et cetera, impacted by the shareholding, so there is competition and there is no business operation, et cetera. And so there is no like offering of convenience to customers, whether you belong to Zaibatsu or others, we are doing sales in a very flexible manner.
At the same time, what we have protected they may not stay with us anymore. However, in the healthy competitive environment, while we provide value, there is true competition taking place. And to us, this is what we wanted. However, we still need to be chosen within this competitive environment. And so that's how the market has already changed in this past 1 year.
In that environment, we will be providing insurance plus alpha. And so P&C, Life and Solutions. These are 3 types of services we can offer to 1 and the same client, and that is our forte. And so is defined. And with human power, we have the expertise to deliver those services, and that's what we will continue to do. That was about the wholesale business. In the retail market, similar thing is happening.
In the retail market, on top of what I have said, the purchasing behavior is changing now in retail. And so it's not just a face-to-face and it's not just direct, but there is a good mixture of human power and digital technology what people are expecting to see. And that becomes bigger value. And so the market has expanded with that in more demand, and we need to be capturing the needs and requirements of the customers, provide value, provide them with better value? And can we do that or not? That is where we are competing on. And so the competition is shifting to those areas.
Mashima-san from Tokai Tokyo.
This is Mashima speaking. Page 35, EPS growth target is shown and 8% or more announced in May '24 is the current target. And share buyback of 1% to 2%, I think, was the assumption back then. But now 1.2% of share buyback, I think it's more like 2% already. So more than 8% or the share buyback range has been raised and therefore, raising to 9%. And you were saying that you don't want to disappoint the market and so what I expect from you is EPS growth of maybe 10%. Do you believe that you'll be able to seek EPS growth of 10%, because 10% growth or 8% growth in the capital market, it will give a very different impression and therefore, 10% growth in EPS. Is that possible? That is my question.
Well, I thought I gave you an answer in my presentation. So I'd like to ask Mr. Okada, our CFO, to respond to this question.
Thank you very much for your question. If you could please turn to Page 4. Excluding business-related equities, CAGR of more than 8%. And for the 2 years, the second year, this is still in progress, but 10.5% is the plan, towards the plan for FY '26. TMNF is going to improve its underwriting profit. And therefore, we want to achieve more than 8% or -- will achieve 8%. And to what extent will we be able to achieve 8% or more in the final year of 2026 will be in question. We're still in the second year. And with regards to the plan that will start from FY 2027, it has not started yet, but we want to achieve well at a higher range than above plus 8%, and we would like to strive for that.
Now we would like to receive some questions over telephone from Sasaki-san of Nomura Securities.
My name is Sasaki from Nomura. I have a question. Business-related equity sales, when you finish, what will be the level of profit. This year, adjusted net income is JPY 1.1 trillion. That is your plan for this fiscal year. After 4 or 5 years, when you have finished selling business-related equities, this JPY [ 1.1425 trillion ]. Where will that go up to? Do you think that it should be above that number?
For example, excluding the gain from sales? Is it going to be the JPY 700 billion that you're looking at? And do you also we expect this number to grow, excluding equity sales after you have finished the selling.
Okada-san, CFO, will answer.
Thank you for the question. So after we have finished selling the equities, well, last year, as we have said, we will finish selling by '29 and by the end of fiscal '26, we will be half in the amount as a milestone. These we have committed, and so I will be executing the sell down accordingly. As for the level of profit as a result, as Tsujino-san questioned, once we move to IFRS.
Based on IFRS accounting, what are the profit indicators that we will use in indicating profit. And so that is something that is under consideration. In the fall season, we will be announcing the definitions of the profit indicators and also about the absolute level or what we want to achieve according to the new indicators. And so as I repeat, in the fall season, together with the definitions of KPIs, we would like to share with you which level of target we will aim for. Thank you very much.
Also online, we have also Otsuka-san from SBI.
Otsuka from SBI Securities. Digressing from today's topic. Koike-san, I understand is attending. As the next CEO, Tokio Marine Group's challenges? What are some issues that you consider as challenges for the group? What do you think needs to be changed immediately, what can be changed immediately or needs to be changed over time. I would appreciate if Koike-san would give some color on that.
Okay. So thank you for the question. Let me turn to Koike-san.
This is Koike speaking. Thank you for your question. What are the challenges the group is facing? And how do I plan to change. In terms of the direction of the business strategy, I don't plan to change at all in any significant way. But when it comes to execution, I think it's -- I have a strong sense that we need to focus on execution in order to improve our competitive advantage and also to develop into new domains beyond insurance. So the organizational setup and globally integrated group management will have to be brought to a new level.
And we will need to continue to invest in talent, which is going to be a driving force for transformation. I think we need to double down to take further initiatives on those fronts. So the direction or when it comes to execution of strategy, I would like to present my ideas with you when the time is right.
I wanted to get a better understanding. When you say execution, is that an ability to execute? Is that what you mean?
Sorry, the audio is very poor. Could you elaborate what you mean by execution? Is that a capability to be able to execute?
Yes. you're exactly right.
Yes, I used the word execution, meaning the ability to put things in place to execute.
On chat from Mr. Tan of GIC, we have received a question. I'm going to be translating to question. So given the group's high ESR sensitivity to credit spreads, do you have any concern around the spikes in credit spread in the event of -- this is on Page 83. And so if it moves by 50 basis points, ESR moves by 8 points. So he thinks this sensitivity is quite high. And while we have this highly sensible index. There is some concerns over U.S. recession. And so if the credit spread expands? Do we have any concerns in case of a U.S. recession scenario taking place?
Okay. So on that question, we would like to ask our CFO, Mr. Okada to answer. And if anything to add Nakahata-san, CIO, will add anything to it.
Okay. So if you look at the Page 83, the credit spread, it is expanding, and that is because in the asset management, as Komiya-san explained earlier, in North America, because underwriting profit is expanding, we have bigger AUM and because of bigger AUM, there is more risk taking.
And so that is a very healthy way to expand investment income. ESR is calculated in yen terms. And so in '24 yen was depreciated and that is 1 factor. In North America, asset management risk has also to be diversified, and we are also monitoring it closely. And so the current ESR situation and also the taking of credit risk in North America, we have no concerns over the status quo so far. [ Nakahara-san ], would you like to add anything?
Thank you for the question. And so from the asset management point of view, I'd like to add a few words. As you mentioned, right now, the market is uncertain. On the other hand, regarding the credit spread in terms of the level of spread, once the Trump tariff was announced, the credit spread widened but then it had come back to the normal level. And so we are in a situation prior to the announcement of Trump tariff. However, going forward, things are uncertain. And therefore, it could widen once again, who knows. We are also considering that scenario. And what is the investment activities required? And how much of that has been factored into this fiscal year's plan? This time, CRE loan situation has been disclosed. The balance is going to come down.
And the investment income will still going to grow, but we are not excessively expanding credit risk. But when the credit spread widens, we want to secure still some room to make further investment. And so that question will still be there. And if there is an opportunity, we might capture new opportunities as a way to see upside in investment income. That concludes my answer to your question. Thank you very much.
I think we have been able to respond to all the questions that were raised. We heard from Komiya-san as an opening presentation. But now we would like to turn to Mr. Koike as the successor to Mr. Komiya to say a few words before we close.
Hello. This is Koike. Today is the first time for me to stand on the stage at this business strategy briefing -- and I was able to see firsthand how our management is refined through dialogue with analysts and investors like yourselves. I feel truly invigorated, and I would like to express my sincere gratitude for your support.
I will be taking over as CEO from Komiya-san at the General Shareholders Meeting next month. But our business strategy and the broad direction we have discussed today will remain unchanged. By steadily implementing our business strategy, we will continue to achieve world-class EPS growth and realize an ROE on par with our global peers. What is expected of me is to make this progress even more solid.
And to not slow down the pace of the transformations we are currently working on, including TMNF, renew, but to further accelerate it as necessary. Mr. Komiya has always said, there is nothing that must not change other than the purpose that has been with us since our company's founding. I have always thought the same. Komiya-san's achievements and successes that have increased our company's corporate value will be inherited as organizational knowledge. I will continue to develop the good parts, but I will also review strategies and methods in response to future changes in the business environment and will not hesitate to make flexible challenges.
Let me give some color. As was explained today, we have built a strong business model, both in Japan and overseas and strong talent to support it. These competitive advantages will be further refined. At the same time, the solutions business, which is a business area I feel attached to as I have given much deliberation during my time at the corporate planning department. I will take the bull by the horn, if you will, to further enhance the range of services we provide beyond insurance.
To achieve this, I also recognize that we must raise the quality of our management to another level. While continuing to refine our unique globally integrated group management the company will evolve into a true global company with origins in Japan and continuously improve our corporate value. And I would like to take this opportunity to express my determination to you all.
I am currently preparing a message to our employees as CEO in June and have decided to tell our employees, approximately 50,000 of them around the world, that integrity, accountability and ownership are 3 points to always be strongly aware of and value. With each employee doing the right thing, sincerely fulfilling promises, and taking on the challenge of change with the sense of ownership. Accumulating evolution that starts with our employees will be an essential driving force in refining our business model and increasing our corporate value.
As CEO, I will take -- I will lead, by example, and embody this in every situation, both inside and outside the company. I will also engage with the capital market in a transparent and sincere manner. I welcome tough feedbacks from you and through such healthy dialogue, I will work with the management team gathered here today to improve the quality of our management and our corporate value. Your continued support is very much appreciated. Thank you very much for today.
Thank you, Koike-san. Let me pass to Mr. Komiya for closing remarks.
So this is Komiya again. It has been a long afternoon today. Thank you for your participation. As I said in the very beginning, this kind of opportunity to have a dialogue and receiving various suggestions and instructions and many other voices from you, I would like to take them all in reflecting our strategy and move forward. So I continue to ask for your support and guidance. That concludes my final remarks. And once again, thank you very much for your participation.
That concludes the fiscal '25 first half IR small meeting. This is the end of the meeting. Thank you.
[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Tokio Marine — 2025 Earnings Call
Tokio Marine — 2025 Earnings Call
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Zusammenfassung: Tokio Marine betont Fortsetzung des starken EPS‑Wachstums (5‑Jahres‑CAGR 19,9%) und will Aktionärsrendite durch DPS‑Steigerung (DPS FY25 JPY 210, +22%) sowie Kapitalumschichtung aus Verkäufen von konzernnahen Aktien in Kerngeschäft und Rückkäufe stärken. IFRS‑Einführung ab FY26 und Ausbau der Solutions‑Sparte stehen im Fokus.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Kapitalstrategie: FY24 Verkäufe konzernnaher Aktien JPY 922 Mrd.; FY25 Ziel JPY 600 Mrd.; Ziel: 0 bis Ende FY29. Volljahr‑Rückkaufplan JPY 220 Mrd. (erste Tranche JPY 110 Mrd.).
- International: Nordamerika‑Fokus mit Specialty P&C (Combined Ratio leicht >90%) und Asset Management (AUM > $70 Mrd., Outperformance).
- Solutions/ID&E: ID&E nun vollständig integriert (Gewinnbasis ~JPY 10 Mrd.), Ziel: Ausbau privater Disaster‑Resilience‑Angebote und Bündelprodukte mit Versicherung.
🔍 Neue Informationen
- IFRS‑Fahrplan: Einführung ab FY26; KPI‑Definitionen und Auswirkung (u. a. auf Dividendenbemessung) werden im Herbst vorgestellt.
- Konkrete Ziele: DPS FY25 JPY 210; Adjusted Net Income FY24 JPY 1,2 Bio; FY25 > JPY 1 Bio; Share Buyback FY25 JPY 220 Mrd.
- Solutions‑Markt: Engineering‑Beratungsmarkt JPY 0,8 Bio, privates Potenzial bis JPY 1,5 Bio.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- IFRS‑Impact: Analysten forderten Quantifizierung, Einfluss auf KPI‑Definitionen und Dividendenbasis; Management kündigt Protokoll/Trial‑Berechnungen bis Herbst an.
- Japan P&C‑Pricing: Auto: zusätzliche und vorgezogene Priserhöhungen (stärker als vorige ~3,5%) möglich; Ziel Auto CR <95% bis FY26; Fire: CR verbessert (ca. 80er‑Bereich) und ROR ≥7% in FY25 erwartet.
- Kapital & ESR: ESR ~149% (Target 100–140% früher); Fragen zu Sensitivität gegenüber Kreditspreads, Use‑of‑Proceeds (M&A vs. Rückkauf) und erreichbarer ROE (Zielbild bis ~20%).
⚡ Bottom Line
- Prognose für Aktionäre: Starke Orientierung auf Dividenden‑ und EPS‑Wachstum, signifikante Kapitalmaßnahmen (Aktienverkäufe + JPY 600 Mrd. Ziel FY25, JPY 220 Mrd. Rückkäufe) sowie IFRS‑Umstellung sind Haupttreiber. Upside durch Solutions/ID&E und Nordamerika; Risiken: IFRS‑Neudefinitionen, Umsetzung der Priserhöhungen in Japan und Marktsensitivität bei Kreditspreads.
Finanzdaten von Tokio Marine
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Mär '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz & Prämien | 8.305.572 8.305.572 |
5 %
5 %
100 %
|
|
| - Versicherungsleistungen | 5.278.974 5.278.974 |
6 %
6 %
64 %
|
|
| Rohertrag | 3.026.598 3.026.598 |
4 %
4 %
36 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 1.654.107 1.654.107 |
18 %
18 %
20 %
|
|
| - Sonst. betrieblicher Aufwand | 2.894 2.894 |
76 %
76 %
0 %
|
|
| EBITDA | 1.369.597 1.369.597 |
8 %
8 %
16 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | -1.740 -1.740 |
4 %
4 %
0 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operating Income) EBIT | 1.371.337 1.371.337 |
8 %
8 %
17 %
|
|
| - Netto-Zinsaufwand | 22.707 22.707 |
16 %
16 %
0 %
|
|
| - Steueraufwand | 347.470 347.470 |
12 %
12 %
4 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 980.428 980.428 |
7 %
7 %
12 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen JPY.
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Firmenprofil
Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. beschäftigt sich mit der Verwaltung ihrer Gruppengesellschaften, die im Versicherungsgeschäft tätig sind. Sie ist in den folgenden Segmenten tätig: Sachversicherung Inland, Lebensversicherung Inland, Internationale Versicherung sowie Finanz- und Allgemeines. Das Segment Nicht-Leben Inland befasst sich mit der Zeichnung von Nicht-Lebensversicherungen für Autos, Häuser, Reisen und Freizeit sowie Unfälle. Das Segment Leben Inland bietet Dienstleistungen in den Bereichen Lebens-, Krebs-, Kranken- und Rentenversicherungen an. Das internationale Versicherungssegment besteht aus dem Rückversicherungsgeschäft und dem internationalen Versicherungs-Underwriting. Das Segment Finanzen und Allgemeines umfasst Anlageberatung, Verwaltung von Investmentfonds, Derivatehandel, Outsourcing von Arbeitskräften, Immobiliengeschäfte und Gesundheitsdienste. Es bietet auch die Verwaltung von Nichtlebensversicherungsgesellschaften, Lebensversicherungsgesellschaften, spezialisierten Wertpapiergesellschaften, ausländischen Unternehmen und anderen. Das Unternehmen wurde am 2. April 2002 gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Tokio, Japan.
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| Hauptsitz | Japan |
| CEO | Mr. Komiya |
| Mitarbeiter | 51.987 |
| Gegründet | 2002 |
| Webseite | www.tokiomarinehd.com |


