Thales Aktienkurs
Vergleich mit Peer Group
📊 Peer Group
📈 Was ist das?
Die Peer Group sind die Unternehmen mit dem ähnlichsten Geschäftsmodell. Sie dienen als Vergleichsmaßstab, um eine Aktie einzuordnen.
🧮 Wie wird sie ausgewählt?
Nach Ähnlichkeit des Geschäftsmodells, also Unternehmen aus derselben Branche, mit vergleichbaren Produkten und einer ähnlichen Kundengruppe. Nur so vergleichst du Äpfel mit Äpfeln.
🏛️ Wofür ist sie wichtig?
Ob eine Aktie günstig oder teuer ist, lässt sich am ehesten im Vergleich beurteilen. Ein KGV von 18 oder ein EV/FCF von 20 wirkt je nach Maßstab günstig oder teuer. Die Peer Group liefert dabei den treffsichersten Maßstab: Unternehmen mit ähnlichem Geschäftsmodell, die denselben Bedingungen unterliegen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
Liegt eine Kennzahl unter dem Peer-Durchschnitt, ist die Aktie relativ günstiger bewertet, über dem Durchschnitt entsprechend teurer. Ein Abschlag zur Peer Group kann eine Chance sein, aber auch einen Grund haben (zum Beispiel geringeres Wachstum). Der Vergleich ist ein Startpunkt, kein Urteil.
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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 49,30 Mrd. € | Umsatz (TTM) = 22,82 Mrd. €
Marktkapitalisierung = 49,30 Mrd. € | Umsatz erwartet = 24,54 Mrd. €
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 49,82 Mrd. € | Umsatz (TTM) = 22,82 Mrd. €
Enterprise Value = 49,82 Mrd. € | Umsatz erwartet = 24,54 Mrd. €
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Thales Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
29 Analysten haben eine Thales Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
29 Analysten haben eine Thales Prognose abgegeben:
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Thales — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Thales' First Half 2026 Results Conference Call. The presentation will be held by Patrice Caine, Thales' Chairman and CEO; and Jeremie Papin, Thales' CFO. It will be followed by a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I must advise you that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Louis Igonet, VP, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to this presentation of Thales H1 2026 results. I'm Louis Igonet, Head of IR for Thales. With me today in the room are Patrice Caine, our Chairman and CEO; and Jeremie Papin, our CFO.
As usual, this presentation is webcasted live on our website, thalesgroup.com, where the slides and press release are also available for download. A replay will be available soon after the end of the event. With that, I'd like to turn over the call to Patrice Caine.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thales 2026 Half Year Results Conference Call. So let me begin with a few highlights of our performance in the first half of the year and I'm on Slide #2. So first, we delivered robust order intake, mainly driven by Defence & Space, once again demonstrating the strength and the relevance of our products and solutions. Notable examples include major contracts to supply satellites to Luxembourg and Turkey or air surveillance systems to Qatar or radars to the UAE.
Our sales growth was driven by the successful ramp-up of our Defence activities, especially in sensors and effectors together with the rebound in Cyber and the resilience of our Aerospace business. From an operational perspective, our continued focus on efficiency and competitiveness resulted in a robust year-on-year improvement in profitability.
The first half was also marked by outstanding free operating cash flow generation. This performance was exceptional, notably reflecting the growth in order intake and our strong project execution. Now beyond these financial results, we also reached several important strategic milestones during the first half of the year. We launched new solutions to enhance counter drone capabilities and smart ammunitions. We entered into promising partnerships with Destinus, for instance, to support armed forces in counter-UAS and ground-based air defence through enhanced system integration and production ramp-up.
We also entered with a partnership with Airbus Defence & Space, MBDA Deutschland, Safran Electronics Defense and Destinus to establish the Bliksem EXO Consortium, a multinational European industrial partnership to develop Europe's first sovereign exo-atmospheric upper-layer interceptor programme or again, with Renault to enhance our mass production. On top of that, we also enlarged our strategic partnership with Google to develop trusted cloud solutions now in Germany. And finally, in early June, we announced the planned acquisition of Exail with the ambition of creating a world-class player in autonomous underwater warfare while further strengthening our capabilities in inertial navigation.
So let us now take a closer look at the numbers, and I am on Slide #3. So as previously said, the commercial momentum in H1 2026 was particularly robust with order intakes reaching EUR 12.5 billion, a 22% organic increase year-over-year. The book-to-bill ratio is maintained significantly above 1, reaching 1.14. Sales reached EUR 10.9 billion, growing by 7.8% organically in H1. And if we exclude the one-off impact linked to the constellation of 2 geostationary satellites, the underlying organic growth in H1 is close to 10% at 9.6% precisely.
Adjusted EBIT rose by close to 10% on a reported basis, while EBIT margin improved to 12.5%. Then adjusted net income group share grew sharply by 13%, reaching EUR 990 million for the first half. Free operating cash flow generation was exceptionally strong in the first half, reaching EUR 1.8 billion, which is close to 3x the level reached in H1 2025.
Of course, Jeremie will further elaborate on that evolution. Net debt now, well, net debt stood at around EUR 500 million at midyear to be compared to EUR 1.6 billion at 31st of December 2025. As you can see on the chart, over the last 12 months, net debt has been reduced by around EUR 3 billion, which is a major achievement. So moving to next slide. I'm leaving the floor to Jeremie.
Thank you, Patrice. Good morning to everyone and thank you for joining our call. Turning to Page 4. Order intake was solid in the first half of 2026, standing at EUR 12.5 billion, a 22% organic growth. This achievement reflects a continued strong momentum across our businesses with particularly good bookings in Space and in Defence. Growth was widespread with all regions contributing. Europe and the Middle East, leading the growth in H1, a benefit of our long-lasting presence in those regions, our engagement to remain close to our clients and to offer them highly performing products and solutions in the current context.
In the first half of 2026, 18 large orders with a unit value above EUR 100 million were booked, 7 in Q1, 11 in Q2. Of these 18 large orders, 13 were in defence, including a number of new contracts in air defence. We had mentioned SAMP/T NG the new generation, in Q1, and Q2 has seen further orders in air surveillance and air traffic management. The momentum was also good in the naval domain. Furthermore, the group recorded 5 large orders in Space, both in observation exploration and in telecom, supported by sustained and robust institutional demand.
Finally, our small orders, those below EUR 10 million, were up 5% organically, which is another indication of the ongoing healthy underlying momentum of the businesses and the high granularity of demand across all our portfolio. Overall, the solid order intake performance confirms the strength of our positioning on growing markets and the continued relevance of our offerings.
Now let me move to sales on Page 5. In H1 2026, sales were up 7.8% organically to EUR 10.9 billion. If we exclude the impact of the cancellation of 2 geostationary telco satellites in our space business, sales growth amounted to 9.6%, which reflects a solid underlying growth momentum. Each of our 3 segments contributed to growth in H1. In terms of geographies, sales growth remained well balanced between mature and emerging markets.
Europe posted a solid 9.4% organic increase, while emerging markets grew by 14.6%, including a particularly strong performance in the Middle East, up 36.7%. You will note that in H1 2026, changes in scope had a very minor impact and currency impact was negative at minus EUR 116 million, mainly linked to the evolution of the euro against the U.S. dollar in the first quarter.
Turning to Slide 6 and having a look at the drivers of our group EBIT adjusted increase year-on-year. Adjusted EBIT for H1 2026 amounts to nearly EUR 1.4 billion, up 10% year-on-year and 11% organically. The strong increase in our gross margin was the main driver of our adjusted EBIT growth in the semester. It is up EUR 219 million, and the main contributors to sales volume growth were Defence and Aerospace. Part of this increase in gross margin was reinvested to support our future growth.
R&D was up 9% and reached 6.2% of sales and Marketing & sales were up 4%. G&A expenses up only 3% are being constrained, growing at less than half the pace of sales and reflecting our focus on cost discipline. Finally, restructuring costs stood at EUR 24 million in the first half, down by EUR 30 million compared to last year. This is mainly explained by the ongoing execution of our space adaptation plan over the first half of last year, which incurred some restructuring costs back then. This plan is now over and paying back.
Moving on to the performance review by segment and starting with Aerospace on Page 7. Orders in the segment reached EUR 3.3 billion, up 24% organically, reflecting solid momentum overall. In Avionics, order intake remained high, notably in the civil domain. Order intake in Space showed strong demand from institutional customers. In total, 5 large contracts were booked in Space in the first half of 2026, including geostationary telco satellites for Luxembourg and Qatar and orders for major programs and missions such as Copernicus and ExoMars.
Sales amounted to EUR 2.8 billion in the first half, up 2.1% organically. This performance was primarily driven by Avionics, where sales increased in the first half. Sales growth in Q2 was, however, a bit slower than Q1 as a result of the first impact from lower air traffic on aftermarket activities. In Space, underlying growth was solid over the first half. However, Thales has been notified of the cancellation of 2 telco satellites based on our Space INSPIRE platform ordered back in 2022. This impacted sales by a negative EUR 153 million over the semester.
Given the positive underlying momentum with our customers and the quality of the Space INSPIRE platform, we are confident in our capacity to reuse what was achieved and delivered so far as part of this contract. If one excludes this one-off element, Aerospace sales were up a solid 8.8% in the first half of '26, reflecting the continued underlying momentum in both Avionics and Space.
Looking at adjusted EBIT, the segment delivered a 130 basis points increase in margin to 10.4%. This strong progress was supported by an improvement in space profitability as it benefits from the successful implementation of the adaptation plan carried out since 2024. Meanwhile, Avionics continued to deliver a high and solid contribution.
Moving on to Defence on Slide 8. Order intake reached EUR 7.4 billion, up 28% year-on-year, reflecting sustained and continued success for Thales products and solutions across many geographies, but notably in Europe and in the Middle East, where demand remains very strong. 13 large contracts were booked in the first half compared to 6 in the first half of '25. The strong performance was broad-based across the portfolio as the vast majority of our products and solutions are addressing critical needs of our clients.
In particular, Air Defence Solutions saw strong client demand in the first half. It's also worth mentioning that 2 large orders in the first half were related to the development of the F5 standard of the Rafale, a key priority of the French military programming law. Defence sales amounted to EUR 6.3 billion, up 13% organically year-on-year. This reflects another quarter of double-digit growth in Q2 at 11.9%, supported by the ongoing production ramp-up in sensors and effectors and by solid contract execution across the defence business.
Finally, adjusted EBIT increased by 22% organically in the first half with an improvement in margin from 12.8% last year to 13.8%. Overall, these results confirm a solid sustainable trajectory in the Defence segment.
Cyber and Digital now on Slide 9. Sales in the Cyber and Digital segment reached EUR 1.8 billion, a 0.4% increase. In Cyber, sales were up 1.6% organically year-on-year. Growth resumed in Q2 with a 4.5% organic growth. This is a positive evolution and a good sign that the business trajectory is recovering. Digital sales -- Digital Identity sales were broadly flat year-on-year. After a good Q1, Q2 sales declined compared to last year when our secured connectivity solution had recorded some nonrecurring one-off orders.
In Payment Services, digital banking solutions saw continued strong growth. However, those were more than offset by lower volumes in payment cards. Moving to profitability with adjusted EBIT down year-on-year. This decline is driven by a decrease in Digital Identity. H1 '25 had benefited from 2 one-offs we mentioned last year, an exceptional contribution from a JV, Telit and other -- and another one-off order in secured connectivity.
In addition to that, margin was also impacted by some challenging situations in the market. First, in Payments and Services, where pressure is building in both volume and prices, but also in Identity and Biometrics. This activity, which includes secure travel documents, saw an impact in the first half from lower passenger traffic and, accordingly, less issuance and renewals of documents. In Cyber, adjusted EBIT was up 5.5% organically with a resilient margin at 14%, while we resume growth.
Moving on the first half of 2026 adjusted P&L on Slide 10. The cost of financial debt and other financial results was down compared to last year. This improvement is driven mainly by lower net financial charges at minus EUR 33 million, reflecting lower average net debt over the period. Foreign exchange results were also favorable in the semester. The finance costs on pension and employee benefits were stable year-on-year.
The effective tax rate in the first half was nearly similar to last year and stands at 25.8%. It includes this year again a temporary additional corporate tax in France, which added an additional EUR 57 million to our tax charge in the semester. Excluding this impact, the effective tax rate is stable at 21%. As a reminder, the additional corporate tax is expected to stand at nearly EUR 100 million in 2026. Minorities year-on-year evolution reflects the further reduced net losses incurred in Thales Alenia Space and as the company's operating profit turned positive. Overall, adjusted net income group share stood at EUR 990 million, up 13% compared to last year.
Turning to free cash flow on Slide 11. The free cash flow was somewhat exceptional in the first half of 2026 and stands at EUR 1.9 billion versus EUR 0.5 billion last year. As you can see, the main driver of this performance was a significant improvement in change in working capital, driven by a continued supportive momentum in the order intake with a very strong semester, as I detailed earlier, coupled with favorable phasing in customer payments. This reflects Thales' long-standing ability to execute projects well, which is obviously a key focus for the group.
As you know, a target of adjusted net income to free operating cash flow conversion was upgraded early July, and we now aim at reaching 100% to 110% conversion ratio in 2026, which is obviously strongly supported by the H1 performance. Before handing over to Patrice for Strategy and Outlook, let's look at the net debt evolution over the past 6 months. Net debt amounted to EUR 519 million as of June 2026. This is down EUR 1.6 billion compared to a negative EUR 1.6 billion at the end of December 2025. This is nearly a EUR 3 billion reduction in net debt since June of 2025.
The main driver of the decrease in net debt is, of course, the exceptional free cash flow generation we just reviewed. The group also paid EUR 606 million in dividend in the first half and new leases amounted to EUR 178 million. Our financial position is very sound. We have ample means to finance our growth going forward, starting with the planned acquisition of Exail that we announced a couple of weeks ago. Thank you for your attention. I now turn over the call to Patrice to review the group's strategic priorities and guidance.
Thank you, Jeremie. So moving now to Slide 14, which is kind of a recap. So Thales is well positioned on markets, offering strong growth and long-term visibility, supported by a comprehensive product portfolio and a broad customer base.
So we continue to see attractive growth opportunities across our 3 core businesses: Defence, Aerospace and Cyber and Digital. So if we start with Defence. In Defence, demand for our products continue to grow, driven by the current geopolitical environment all around the world. And the breadth of our products spanning across air defence, maritime warfare, effectors, electronic warfares, among others, together with the diversity of our customer base, provide a strong foundation for sustainable long-term growth.
Our strong commercial momentum and our continued ramp-up of our industrial capabilities will continue to support our fast pace of organic sales growth. Looking ahead, as already said, the planned acquisition of Exail will further strengthen our strategic position in the autonomous underwater systems domain and in inertial navigation.
Now moving to Aerospace in a nutshell, well, in Avionics, the underlying market fundamentals are solid, of course, supported by structural long-term growth in passenger demand for air travel. And this is the case regardless of temporary uncertainties -- uncertainties, sorry, related to the current situation in the Middle East. In Space, activity continues to benefit from Europe's growing focus on space sovereignty, supported by an unprecedented level of public funding. Typically, the last ministerial conference 2025-2028 has secured EUR 22.1 billion for European space programs, increasing the European Space Agency budget up to 30%.
And looking further ahead, the next EU multi-annual financial framework is expected to allocate around EUR 70 billion to Space, almost double the amount under the previous one. This favorable space environment is also very promising for the Bromo project as well as for future growth opportunities.
And finally, Cyber and Digital. While in Cyber and Digital demand continues to grow as well with AI typically acting as a key market accelerator. We expect AI to strengthen our position by accelerating the digital and AI transformation of our customers and therefore growing the need for cybersecurity as cyberattacks continue to grow in both scale and sophistication, leveraging AI. These trends are driving demand for detection and response services, application security and data protection to mention a few.
To address these evolving needs, we will continue to expand our portfolio with new solutions, including, for instance, our next-generation HSM, hardware security modules, namely Luna 8, a new data security posture management solution or another example with our forthcoming AI security fabric solution expected in 2027 next year.
So moving to the last slide, Slide 15. Well, the performance in the first half confirms the trajectory of durable and profitable growth on which Thales is established, and we are entering the second half of 2026 with confidence. The robust momentum and strong visibility enjoyed by the group, in particular, within defence activities, has led us to upgrade 2 of our 2026 guidance items a couple of weeks ago, which are: number one, the expected book-to-bill ratio for 2026, now expected above 1.1. And number two, the conversion rate of our adjusted net income into operating free cash flow for the year, now expected between 100% and 110%.
Therefore, we are confirming our objective to deliver sorry, between 6% and 7% of organic growth for sales in 2026, corresponding to sales of EUR 23.3 billion to EUR 23.6 billion. It means that nonrecurring items have no effect on our sales guidance given the underlying improvement in growth trends, notably in Defence. We are also confirming our expectation of a solid increase in adjusted EBIT margin, which is expected between 12.6% and 12.8% for 2026. And this is driven mainly by progression in the Aerospace and Defence segments. So that concludes our presentation with Jeremie. And now we are happy to take all your questions.
Ladies & gentlemen, we will now begin the Q&A session.
[Operator Instructions]
We are now going to proceed with our first question.
The first questions come from the line of Chloe Lemarie from Jefferies.
2. Question Answer
I will have a first one on the momentum in Defence because we've seen obviously growth that stands rather ahead of your high single-digit growth target. So could you maybe talk about the unlock there? What's happened for you to be able to sustain such a level of production and delivery and whether this could remain sustainable for the division in the future?
And my second question was on IRIS2. I was wondering how the discussions were ongoing around that project, given there's been some concern that Germany is investing in its own sovereign SATCOM constellation. So any color on how -- any progress on theIRIS2 project would be much appreciated.
Thank you, Chloe. I will share the answer with Jeremie. I can start with growth andIRIS2 and you would complement, Jeremie, if you wish. So yes, indeed, the first semester has allowed us to post quite a robust growth percentage. Honestly, it's the consequence or the outcome of the investment we have made in the previous years in terms to -- in order to ramp up the production.
So we've made a lot of investment in our industrial capacities, in our engineering also capabilities that led us to this type of growth. Now it's too soon to change the perspective for the full year. We see this business, you know that by heart is not linear, but though it's very encouraging as well at the same time.
OnIRIS2, things are progressing, I would say, as expected. So this is for me quite positive. We are waiting, I would say, being under contracts or follow-on contracts, I would say, soon. I say soon because there is, I would say, always some discussions to be, I would say, closed, but I see that coming now soon.
And what is also encouraging is the official willingness to seeIRIS2 and the German constellation being interoperable. So this is also a positive sign from our German colleagues from Germany to position the constellation they need for their own needs being complementary and not in competition withIRIS2. So for me, the late -- the last -- or latest, sorry, Franco-German Ministerial Council that was held last week was also very reassuring on this point.
Maybe if I may, Chloe, add a point on Defence. I think what we can say is that clearly, the outlook for us this year has moved to a high single-digit growth in revenue to a low double-digit growth potential.
So clearly, that -- some of that momentum is clearly going to continue. And the other point is we are also obviously aiming at and supporting the business further by reinvesting some of the -- into the R&D. So clearly, the focus on strengthening and keeping the momentum is there.
Can I add a follow-up on this? When you say you're investing into R&D, it obviously doesn't show in the margin. That was a really strong performance. Are you capitalizing it?
No, no, no capitalization at all. But as you will see, the R&D is up faster than revenue, as we had indicated, and it's at 6.2% of revenue now for the group.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the next questions come from the line of Ross Law from Morgan Stanley.
So the first one just on Space. I wonder if you can give a bit more detail on the growth in margin achieved in the first half? And what is driving that? Is it just volumes? Is it the result of the sort of transformation in that business or maybe even price? And then a follow-up to Chloe's question on the Defence margin, which was very strong 13.8%. How sustainable is that as we progress through the remainder of the year?
So on Space, I would say the outlook, first of all, in the first half, the business, obviously the revenue is somewhat impacted by the cancellation in those satellites that I mentioned, which reduced the revenue by EUR 150 million. The underlying growth is, however, solid.
And we were making good progress on program completion. We are also benefiting from the payback from some of the cost adjustment plans that we had kicked off and were in full implementation through last year. On the outlook for the remainder of the year, I would say, on Space, we should see a low single-digit growth and taking into account the cancellations. And yes, that's the current outlook.
On Defence, the Defence margin, there is nothing that is specific in H1. We think we can support a margin that will be above 13.5%. So I would say, while the growth is significant, we are seeing operational leverage and constant good execution on our programs, which allows the margin to hold up.
If I could maybe just quickly follow up on the margin, a bit more specifically in Space in both the first half and your expectations for the full year, please?
In the first half, what I mentioned in Space is that we had turned positive, and we expect to see that in the full year.
We are now going to proceed with our next question.
And the next questions come from the line of Alessandro Pozzi from Mediobanca.
The first one is on order intake, specifically in Defence. I think the order intake was supported by good performance on France. I guess this is coming from the F5, but also Middle East was up 200%, I believe. Can you give us a sense of whether you think this is a one-off in H1 because of the situation? Or whether do you think this is something sustainable that could support order intake as we go into the second half and in the coming years?
The second one is on free cash flow. You maintain the guidance that you have given just recently. But the performance was really strong. And if you look at the second half implies a small positive free cash flow, which is at odds with the historical performance. So just wondering whether it's just being conservative or there is just an acceleration of the free cash flow of the payments in H1 versus H2.
I can start on the first one and hand over then to Jeremie for the free cash flow. Indeed, in the appendix, you see all the organic, I would say, change H1 2025 versus H1 '26 in terms of order intake. It's positive and strongly positive almost everywhere, in fact. Then you know very well this business, as I said, it's not linear across the year. So it's always difficult to say that for the full year, it will be times 2 the first semester.
What we see for real -- what we see for real is that demand now come from everywhere. In the past, I used to say that we had, I would say, 2 engines of growth, Middle East, Asia, Southeast Asia for the -- since -- sorry, a while now, a third engine of growth, which is Europe and not only France, but Europe as a whole has been added to the 2 previous ones. And when you see a look at the percentage of growth of order intake for Europe, it's also very impressive, plus 46% organic growth H1 2025 versus H1 2026.
So let me just give a more qualitative than answer because, again, this is something which is not an equation. But clearly, we do expect for the full year a strong and very robust order intake momentum for Defence as a whole, leveraging all these needs coming from Europe, Middle East. Needless to say that [ URs ] are important in this region, of course, considering the war in -- or with Iran and still strong momentum in Asia and Southeast Asia. Free cash flow, Jeremie?
Yes. The free cash flow, as you pointed out, I think what we want to signal is obviously the fact that you cannot simply multiply H1 by 2 for the full year outlook. I want to point to the fact that our CapEx guidance for the full year is still roughly EUR 850 million. So obviously, the CapEx in H2 will be higher than the CapEx in H1 that -- there were some, I would say, cutoff payments between H1, H2 in terms of cash received down payments that one needs to take into account.
Overall, I think what is important is the fact that we are very, very confident about the overall cash generation of the business. We are normalizing working capital and as some of our, I would say, production in sensors and effectors grows. So there are a number of factors. But overall, obviously, the message on free cash flow is confident.
Okay. Just wondering if you expect any large down payments again in the second half?
I won't comment on that. But again, we had some favorability in the first half.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the next questions come from the line of Christophe Menard from Deutsche Bank.
I had 2. The first one is on the Space margin by 2028, are we still on the same trajectory given the strong performance in H1? And should you -- I mean, could we consider levels above 7% by 2028?
And the second question is on Digital Identity recovery. Should we expect some recovery in H2? And is the margin target of 13% for Cyber and Digital still the message that you have? Or could it be lower given the H1 performance?
So maybe starting with the target on Digital for the full year I think you should look at it as, yes, we are aiming at trying to be stable ex-one-offs, I would say, in the one-timers in 2026. So that would be around 13%, as you mentioned. We do reckon it is a voluntaristic target. But clearly, we do not want to trade growth for margin. So we are confident that we're not confident, but we are aiming for this rebound in the second half compared to the first half. And then on your first question...
I can take it if you wish. On Space, Christophe Menard, we've said previously, and I'm sure you remember that, that what we foresee or what we are aiming at is a kind of a linear progression towards 7-ish percent by 2027. So we didn't extend to 2028.
And your question was on 2028. So one, it's a bit too soon to say. Let's first reach this level of operational profit by 2027, let's say, around 7% and this is clearly in our hands or at reach, of course. But there is no reason why we should not continue to improve beyond 2027, of course. So without sharing figures on 2028, yes, we do work to continue to improve beyond 2027.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the next questions come from the line of Sam Burgess from Goldman Sachs.
Just the first question on Space. Can you hear me?
Yes, we can. We do hear you.
Can you hear me?
Yes. Yes.
Can you hear me?
Yes, we do.
I think there's a bit of a lag. In Space, what demand trends are you seeing across commercial, institutional and Defence markets? And on the commercial side, are you seeing more interest on low earth orbit applications versus geostationary?
And then just a second question, if I can, on Digital. How much of the margin decline that you saw reflected those nonrecurring benefits in H1 '25 versus some of the market pressures you mentioned in Payment Services and Identity and Biometrics?
I can take the first one, Jeremie. I'll give you the second one. So thanks for your 2 questions. Well, on Space, and that's what I've tried to recap during the presentation. First and foremost, yes, we do see a very strong momentum on the institutional segment, which is the vast majority of our business. In fact, at space, I remember a few years ago, it was around 2/3, should be still the same, a bit more probably now of our business of Thales Alenia Space business is made with, let's say, governmental agencies, European Space Agency and so on and so forth.
And I've shared those 2 figures during the presentation, which I would say are 2 good illustrations of this momentum. Number one, the latest ministerial conference that defined every year, the 3-year budget and the one which was held a while ago and that covers 2025-2028 decided to globally speaking, invest EUR 22 billion, so representing 30%, I would say, increase versus the previous ministerial conference.
But that the second illustration, which is even more promising is the budget, the space budget that is under discussion at EU level. And clearly, the figures that are under discussion, so it's not yet decided, of course, so we should be a bit, I would say, cautious, but the figures which are under discussion are extremely, extremely important, around EUR 70 billion to cover this multiyear period of budget for EU devoted to space.
So institutional markets, for me, it's kind of a no-brainer, a very strong momentum. Number two, Defence. Defence is something which I would say doesn't happen every year. I mean this is something that it's a more, I would say, scattered market, but still very active and in particular, linked to the geopolitical situation. So the momentum of Defence space for Defence is really the same as we see in Defence in general. And typically, the satellite that we have been, I would say, awarded by Qatar just recently is a military satellite. And it shows how important having, in this case, it's a military SATCOM satellite, it's important for those countries.
The last segment that you have, I would say, mentioned is the commercial one. This one has been clearly, I would say, impacted by the arriving of Starlink and the likes a while ago. So for the geostationary satellite, telecommunication geostationary satellite, this market is what it is now. So clearly, it's a few satellites per year. Now which has emerged is, as you said, LEO [Technical Difficulty] constellation.
And we have discussed or we've had the question aboutIRIS2, typicallyIRIS2, which is, by the way, semi-commercial, semi-institutional, to be honest, but is a huge opportunity for us, which clearly, if it materialized, and I'm optimistic on this point, will represent a very significant chunk of business for TAS for the years ahead of us. So globally speaking, yes, the tone about space is clearly much more positive than 2 or 3 years ago, you remember where the situation was a bit different. Turning to Digital...
On Digital, Sam, I would say that in the margin decline that you have seen in Digital, about 2.5 points of the margin decline are linked to the one-offs that we mentioned.
So you can take those off the 14.6%, and that's consistent with what we had said earlier in last year about the fact that the overall year-end margin had to be adjusted by 70 -- at least 70 basis points. And there's also an impact from forex to the margin in H1 of '26 for another 30 to 40 basis points. So altogether, I would say about half or slightly more is -- is not -- is the combination of the one-offs and the forex.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Olivier Brochet from Rothschild & Co.
I would have a couple of questions on the -- first of all, on Avionics. Could you unpack how the original equipment aftermarket have been trending and what you expect [Technical Difficulty] in IFE?
Could you speak a little bit louder, Olivier? We can't hear you very well.
Sorry. I will try to speak louder. So on Avionics, can you unpack how the original equipment and aftermarket have been trending, including in IFE? Secondly, in Biometrics, the slowdown that you've been experiencing, is it as a result of an outside exposure to the Middle East? Or is it broad-based? And third, in payment, could you be a bit more specific on what happened in H1 and how recurring that softness or weakness that you've experienced is, please? And apologies for the [indiscernible]
No, no. We could hear you. That's okay. Thank you, Olivier. I hope you will go well. So avionics, I start, Jeremie, and you will complement. So Avionics -- if we look at the 2 segments, OE on one side and support and maintenance on the other side, I would say very simply, OE, we are aligned with, I would say, communications made by Airbus and Boeing. So we are just following, if I may say, the ramp-up or their production rate.
So if you listen to their, let's say, indications, that's quite consistent with our own, I would say, deliveries. And by the way, we are clearly not the bottleneck here in this regard as long as at least Airbus is concerned, number one. Support and maintenance, it's true that the situation in the Middle East has had a slight impact, I would say, that was manageable. So nothing to be worried about at this stage. But let's be vigilant, yet we have seen a slight reduction as a consequence of aircraft flying less, in fact. So that's the color I could share with you about Avionics.
Biometrics, I should say, the main explanation, and we've seen that to a much greater extent, of course, but we have seen the similar situation during COVID. In fact, when people are prevented to travel, and that was the case in the Middle East, but not only in the Middle East because the Middle East is also an international hub for many international connections. When people are prevented to travel less, they just don't renew their passport. And there is a kind of automatic, I would say, a consequence on this situation. Hence, the fact that this business line has been impacted by this external factor linked to, I would say, difficulties to travel, globally speaking.
Payments, Payment is a very competitive market. That's not new, by the way. So clearly, it's a competitive market. It's also a market which we have seen in the past stocking and destocking effects. So it's always kind of a bit complex to model or to forecast precisely the way banks will renew their banking cards and so on and so forth. For us, the main stake, if I just take a step back, is really trying to accelerate the digitalization of this business as we have successfully done it for the mobile connectivity solutions business line.
That's for me, what is, I would say, at stake on a more strategic standpoint. I do not discard the fact that on the short run, we see those type of ups and downs in terms of growth for the business -- for the Payments business. But the strategic thing for me is the acceleration of the digital part of this business. Jeremie, do you want to add something?
No.
No, it's okay. [indiscernible] at least for us.
Could I just ask on the Payments side? Was it more pricing or volume in the first half?
Both -- in. Yes, should I say both, in fact.
We do think we will see some -- there were some -- as mentioned by Patrice, some customer delays, I would say, linked to stocking, destocking. So that trend on volume can improve and should improve in the second half, but it's always difficult to time.
We are now going to proceed with our next question -- the next questions come from the line of Herve Drouet from CIC CIB.
Coming back to DIS, maybe on the Cyber side, I mean, it looks like in second quarter, you are improving the organic growth profile of 4.5%. Do you believe you can continue to accelerate the growth in Cyber, maybe to high single digit, maybe more in line with the Cyber sector growth is my first question.
And the second question is back to payment cards and to move towards eCards like you did with eSIM. How long do you think you will be able to gradually be more competitive on the eCard side? And do you believe moving into eCard will enable you maybe to improve margins as maybe what we've seen between SIM and eSIM?
You take the first one, and I'll take the second one, Jeremie?
Yes. So in Cyber, as you saw, we managed to achieve the 4.5% growth year-on-year. So that is a first step. I would say the immediate outlook is to maintain this level of rebound. And of course, to further beyond, I would say, the next few quarters to see a further acceleration. But we are here -- what we are expecting for the -- for the second half is this, I would say, a full year between low and mid-single-digit growth in Cyber. And on payment cards?
Yes, I can follow on payment card on this one. Thanks for your questions. This business line is around EUR 1 billion-ish business now, just to share order of magnitude of this business. And the percentage of Digital business within this business line is around 10%, if my memory is correct, let's say, around 10%.
So clearly, there is a way to go to move from 10% gradually to something which would represent as for the mobile connectivity business, let's say, much more than 50%, 55%, 60% and so on and so forth. So I suppose it would take a bit of time unless we would do something, I would say, inorganic, but that's not in our hands now. It would take -- it would be progressive, of course, to move from 10% to 20%, 30%, 40%, 50% and so on and so forth. But we have a plan.
And by the way, the digitalization of this business is much more than e-payment or eCard, as you have mentioned. In fact, we have, I would say, we have -- we market a solution, a comprehensive solution to digitalize the full customer journey when a customer interacts with its own bank.
So it's something which is quite, I would say, complex in a positive sense, which means that it is a sticky business. When you are, I would say, integrated, deeply entrenched in the IS/IT system of our customers of banks, this business is quite sticky in a positive sense and of course, largely profitable. Let's keep in mind as well, and we shared that in the past that this business is a profitable business.
So what we, I would say, see here is the consequence of a lower volume than expected, hence, a lower, I would say, EBIT in absolute value. But in percentage, though we do not disclose the percentage, but I give you a qualitative, I would say, indication is a very good and very profitable business overall, whether it is physical or digital.
Hope it helps to give some color.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Sebastian Growe from BNP Paribas.
I have 2. The first one would be on Defence and the SAMP/T NG outlook. There was some recent news flow suggesting there might be an acceleration in demand for the system, including from Germany. So I was wondering whether you could provide an update with regard to the overall demand funnel for the system and how one should think about the potential limitations if and when a given country already uses the Patriot system?
And the second question I have, and sorry for belaboring and getting back to the Digital margin debate again. But if I may follow up on your earlier comments that you made and the potential margin recovery. Is my understanding correct that the current underlying margin drop by about 250 basis points is solely timing related? Or simply put, you still consider a margin of around 12% in digital as a realistic target?
Thanks for your questions. First of all, when a country needs to get equipped with this type of high-end air defence system, whether you call it long range or mid-range, depending of, I would say, the vocabulary that is used by such or such armed forces, definitely, and this is a fact, the SAMP/T NG clearly surpass in terms of performance, Patriot. This is a fact.
Number two, the other big advantage of SAMP/T NG is its availability. In fact, Patriot is a good system for sure. But the availability of the interceptors of the missiles are extremely far away. And typically, for the moment, if you want to get one, you would have to wait 2032, something like that to get not only the system, but in particular, the missiles, which are, of course, needed to operate such a system, which is not the case for SAMP/T NG where the availability is more 2028-ish versus 2032 for the Patriot.
So it's clear that the value prop of the SAMP/T NG is very attractive for many countries. Now of course, the U.S. political influence can rebalance those advantages. That's why, by the way, it's a real competition between the SAMP/T NG system and the Patriot. The list, if I may say, or the number of prospects and potential opportunities for SAMP/T NG is quite substantive. I can name a few countries which have been named by officials, so it's not a secret. But typically, Ukraine, Greece, some Nordic countries, countries in the Middle East as well. In fact, we see demand, sorry, in many countries.
Now as for all, I would say, large and costly, if I may say, costly systems, it's difficult to predict if it will come to a positive outcome in the second semester of this year or in 2027 or even after. There are a lot of political influence as well in those domains. So on one hand, this is quite, I would say, very promising system and the need is very important for this type of system. Now in terms of modernization, how do we, I would say, forecast future order intake. It's always kind of a delicate exercise to be conducted. On Digital, Jeremie?
Yes. On Digital, obviously, what we have said is that the margin adjusted for the one-offs last year was somewhat between 12.5% and 13%. And the outlook this year would be to try to rebound towards those levels, but it's an uphill task. And so we are seeing a better margin in the second half, clearly coming through. That's what I would qualify it.
If I might just quickly, quickly follow up on this. I mean this has been really a steep margin decline. So we're talking 9% here. And I think excluding what you mentioned before, the 30 bps, 40 bps currency headwind, excluding the, say, 250 bps or so of margin inflation that we saw in H1 '25, the underlying margin is still down 300.
So I heard your commentary around some timing effects in the first half of '26, but I was just wondering if there's more to it. So it is only timing? Or is there anything else in the market that has kind of resulted in this very steep margin decline on an underlying basis.
Yes, there is -- sorry. So there is some timing, but I would not qualify it as all timing regarding the margin level achieved in the first half of the year. And so for Digital, what we will expect in the full year is to see a rebound from the first half. And I would say, into the 12% plus level.
We will now take one last question. And the last questions come from the line of David Perry from JPMorgan.
Two questions, please. They're a bit philosophical, if that's okay. Just on Defence, Patrice, a lot of investors are now debating old technology versus new technology. Just be really interested in your thoughts on these industry trends and how you think Thales is positioned.
The second one is, obviously, you've had a lot of questions on Digital, and you say you have a plan. Does that plan include just selling the business and moving on? Because it does seem to be distracting from the really good performance you're delivering in Defence right now.
Thank you, David, for your 2 questions. Shall I start on Defence? Honestly, I don't know what is an old or a new technology in Defence.
What I see is the fact that we have, I would say, or we do master a range of technologies that allows us really to, I would say, have the right solution and product for the current needs, whether you think of, let's say, technologies that have been known in the past based on electronics, radio frequency, laser technologies and so on and so forth, new technologies linked to the digital world, data analytics, AI, cyber, cloud technologies, hybrid communications and so on and so forth. And even technologies of tomorrow when we speak about quantum technologies, not quantum computing, but quantum technologies for sensors, which is going to prepare the future of the future of Thales.
And that's probably one of the key strengths of the group, being able to be, I would say, across all these technologies, whether they are old or new, again, I don't know what is old or new technologies. But clearly, that's what makes me, I would say, confident in the future of our portfolio and our ability to meet today's and tomorrow's need of armed forces.
On CDI, I do not share your appreciation, David, that it's a distraction, I would say. It's a good and profitable business. We do leverage technologies, I know that you love figures, guys, but we love as well technologies and synergies. And CDI bring to Defence and Aerospace businesses, technologies know-how that was lacking to Thales before CDI and that are super useful to fuel the growth in those Defence. Typically, cloud technologies were not mastered by the group before the different acquisition in the CDI field.
Sorry to interrupt, Patrice. I'm just asking about Digital. Cyber, I get. But Digital, I just don't see the synergies and...
That's why I'm trying to explain you, David. Cloud technologies are coming from the Digital, I would say, part of the business. That's pretty clear. By the way, when we do hybrid communication for Defence, sorry to be a bit technical, but you need as well to understand, I would say, the underlying reasons of the synergies what we see on the day-to-day business between CDI and Defence or aerospace.
It's the case coming from mastering 4G, 5G standard and technologies coming from mobile connectivity business to offer what is called now in the defence world hybrid communication solutions, mixing some good old defence technologies with frequency hopping and so on and so forth with the fact that we do leverage as well civil networks.
That's what we see in Ukraine. That's what we see in the Middle East. That's what we see in the most modern countries, okay? So again, it doesn't appear in the figures. So you may challenge always the figures, but this is the reality we live in. And this is what allows us also to perform better in our legacy domains like Defence and Aerospace.
Again, just building on that to put it in the context, what we are talking about, what we've talked a lot about today is roughly a year-on-year impact of EUR 20 million to EUR 25 million. So for which we are confident that we will recoup some of it in the second half.
This concludes the question-and-answer session. So I'll now hand back to the management team for any closing remarks.
Well, I think this is it. So thank you, everybody, for your participation. Thank you for your questions. Of course, do not hesitate to reach out to the IR team for any follow-up questions. And have a great day. See you soon. Bye-bye.
Thank you -- ladies and gentlemen, if you didn't have a chance to ask a question on today's call, please do not hesitate to send your question to the Thales Group Investor Relations at the following e-mail address: [email protected], and we will get back to you as soon as possible. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.
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Thales — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Thales — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Solide H1‑2026: Defence‑getriebenes Wachstum, starke Cash‑Generierung und bestätigte Guidance trotz Space‑Einmaleffekt.
Kernaussagen und Zahlen des H1‑2026‑Earnings Calls.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Auftragseingang: EUR 12,5 Mrd. (+22% organisch), Book‑to‑Bill 1,14; stark in Defence und Space.
- Umsatz: EUR 10,9 Mrd. (+7,8% organisch; +9,6% ex. Storno von 2 GEO‑Satelliten).
- Adjusted EBIT: ≈EUR 1,4 Mrd. (+10% y/y), Marge 12,5%.
- Adjusted NI: EUR 990 Mio. (+13%).
- Free Cashflow: ≈EUR 1,8–1,9 Mrd. (≈3x H1'25); Nettoverschuldung ≈EUR 519 Mio., Rückgang um ~EUR 3 Mrd. YoY.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Defence‑Ramp‑up: Vorjahresentwicklungen in Produktion und Engineering ermöglichen erhöhtes Liefervolumen bei Sensoren und Effektoren; Management sieht nachhaltige Nachfrage.
- Partnerschaften & M&A: Geplante Übernahme Exail (autonome U‑Boote, Trägheitsnavigation), Bliksem EXO Konsortium und Kooperationen (Destinus, Renault, Google) zur Stärkung von Fähigkeiten und Produktion.
- Finanzdisziplin: Starke Cash‑Generierung wird für Dividende, Schuldenabbau und Finanzierung strategischer Akquisitionen genutzt.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Umsatz: Bestätigung organisches Wachstum 6–7% für 2026 → Zielumsatz EUR 23,3–23,6 Mrd.
- Marge: Adjusted EBIT‑Marge erwartet bei 12,6–12,8% für 2026.
- Weitere Targets: Book‑to‑Bill >1,1; Conversion Adjusted NI → Free OCF 100–110% für 2026. Risiken: Space‑Stornierungen, saisonale H2‑Effekte, Druck in Payments & Identity.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Defence‑Nachhaltigkeit: Anleger fragten nach Fortdauer des starken Defence‑Booster; Management: Produktionsinvestitionen + Auftragslage stützen Wachstum, bleibt aber nicht linear.
- Space‑Impact: Nachfragen zu 2 stornierten GEO‑Satelliten; Management: einmaliger Umsatzverlust ≈EUR 153 Mio., Profitabilität verbessert durch Anpassungsplan, Outlook: low‑single‑digit Wachstum ex‑effekt.
- Digital/Cyber & Cash: Fragen zur Margenerholung in Digital (Payments/Identity) und H2‑Cash; Management sieht Rückkehr auf ~12–13% als Ziel, nennt dies aber "ambitioniert", und bleibt bei konservativen H2‑Cash‑Annahmen (keine Details zu Down‑Payments).
⚡ Bottom Line
Thales liefert ein starkes H1: Defence‑Momentum und außergewöhnliche Cash‑Conversion reduzieren Verschuldung deutlich und finanzieren Akquisitionen. Für Aktionäre: robustes Wachstum und bestätigte Guidance sind positiv, Risiken bleiben in Space‑One‑offs und der Digital/Payments‑Erholung.
Thales — Thales S.A., Exail Technologies - M&A Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, everyone. Welcome, and thank you for joining us on such short notice. This morning, we will discuss our announcement regarding the proposed acquisition of Exail by Thales. I'm Louis Igonet, Head of IR for the firm. With me today are Patrice Caine, Chairman and CEO; and Jeremie Papin, CFO of Thales. As usual, this presentation will be in English and followed by a Q&A session. Its webcast is live on our website at thalesgroup.com, where the slides and the press release are also available for download. A replay of the call will be available in a few hours.
With that, I will now hand over to Patrice Caine.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us this morning. So we are delighted to announce this morning the proposed acquisition by Thales of Exail Technologies. This acquisition represents a compelling opportunity to accelerate Thales' expansion in two fast-growing key markets where Exail is today recognized as a key player, maritime robotics and inertial navigation.
The strategic rationale of this acquisition is clear and fits the group's strategic roadmap. Firstly, we gained a critical mass to further expand our mine countermeasure systems footprint and to drive innovation in unmanned anti-submarine warfare. Second, Thales' positioning in inertial navigation will be strengthened, thanks to Exail's multi-platform and multi-domain expertise based on FOG, Fiber Optic Gyroscope technology that is highly complementary with Thales' own capabilities. Finally, combining our R&D capacities with -- will accelerate our joint quantum sensing roadmap to sustain innovation and develop differentiating capabilities over the long run.
The deal structure is a 2-step process. We've signed an agreement to acquire the Gorgé family’s 35.51% for EUR 134 per share, subject to customary closing conditions. The closing of that acquisition is expected by Q3 2027. Immediately after the closing, we will file a mandatory tender offer for 100% of Exail Technologies' share. Finally, this acquisition will be value accretive for Thales. We anticipate significant revenue and cost synergies, notably through the mutualization of both commercial and R&D platforms.
So I'm now on Slide 4. Well, Exail is a fast-growing tech player with leading positions, in particular, in high-precision navigation & autonomous systems. Over the years, the company has been able to develop a comprehensive portfolio of solutions serving both defense and civil markets. We do value Exail's depth in cutting-edge technologies. Thanks to significant investment in R&D and a deeply embedded culture of drive innovation among its 2,200 employees. Exail has built a broad set of high-tech in-house capabilities from core components to products and systems. The company has notably developed recognized strengths in unmanned and navigation systems with clear differentiators in both areas, including costs and technology. Exail showed an impressive profitable growth track record over the years and generated close to EUR 500 million sales in 2025 with solid growth perspectives underpinned by a growing backlog in defense markets.
Moving on to Slide 5. Exail has developed over the years a world-class portfolio of high-tech robotics, navigation and maritime systems. It notably offers critical capabilities and best-in-class products in high-performance navigation and positioning systems with a particularly strong exposure to naval defense and civil maritime markets.
Since its inception in 1990, Exail also developed a wide range of recognized maritime robotic solutions, specializing in particular, in autonomous maritime surface and underwater drones. It enjoys notably a strong position in the attractive mine countermeasure segment. Those 2 activities or businesses have been delivering strong 20% plus growth over recent years, driven by sustained market momentum and Exail's differentiating and high-tech offer. Exail also offer a niche expertise in selected high-value components, including photonics, quantum instruments and on-board electronics with various defense and civil applications. This business has also been delivering strong growth over recent years.
Now looking to the strategic rationale into more details, and I'm now on Slide #6. Through this acquisition, we intend to capture significant growth opportunities across key markets, seeing sustained demand while combining Thales and Exail capabilities and growth perspectives. First, the mine warfare market. We see mine countermeasures systems as a highly strategic market with growth or growing operational demand and a critical need to increase effectiveness. By bringing together our respective capabilities, we will achieve scale and broaden our offering with a world-class comprehensive portfolio. This will strengthen our ability to win major programs and to serve customers across the full mission chain.
Second, we will drive innovation in the emerging and fast-growing unmanned anti-submarine warfare. This market, the anti-submarine warfare market, where Thales is holding a leadership position is fast growing and is a key priority for many navies worldwide. The move to unmanned systems is starting, allowing to reduce costs and also solve the shortage of experienced crews. Exail's technology base and products combined with Thales' broad portfolio will provide us with additional depth while leveraging Thales' positioning and customer relationships to accelerate our ability to capture growth prospects.
Third, on inertial system or inertial navigation, Exail and Thales portfolio are highly complementary. The combination of the two will create a comprehensive multi-domain and multi-platform offer, ultimately helping us penetrate key subsegments more effectively. This is [ true ] not only for defense programs, but also for broader mission needs where accurate and resilient navigation is fundamental.
Fourth, the transaction provides Thales with attractive growth perspectives. Exail brings a robust financial track record, secured growth outlook with an accretive margin profile for Thales. The combination of our two businesses will accordingly support sustainable profitability as we scale in our markets.
And finally, we will deliver significant synergies, both from a revenue and a cost standpoints. Synergies are about translating the strategic fit into measurable value accretion for Thales and its shareholders. The underwater mine countermeasure market is expanding and becoming increasingly strategic and recent events have somehow unfortunately confirmed that. This market is expected to grow fast over the next decade with high single-digit growth between 2025 and 2030, followed by low double-digit growth between 2030 and 2035.
In that context, the rationale is clear: materially broaden the offering by combining complementary capabilities. Together, Exail and Thales will leverage four key strategic assets. Number one, a global footprint with the ability to address the requirements of major countries and support customers at scale. Number two, a highly scalable platform, allowing us to grow efficiently and respond quickly to increasing demand. Third, faster development of innovative services by leveraging combined expertise, technologies and operational feedback. And number four, integrated solutions across the full value chain from components to autonomous systems, thanks to greater vertical integration that will allow us to cater to a wide range of needs from our clients. Overall, the combination is about complementarity and growth, expanding capability, accelerating innovation and strengthening our position in a strategic markets.
Unmanned anti-submarine warfare is still an emerging market, but it is scaling extremely fast. We expect this segment to grow eightfold between 2025 and 2030. The reason this combination matters is simple. Our capabilities are highly complementary. And together, they give us all the building blocks to move very quickly in robotic undersea warfare. Exail bring a comprehensive range of drone platforms. Thales and Exail are both recognized sonar players. And Thales specifically had strong capabilities in ISR sensors and critically mission systems. So together, we will be create a much more complete unmanned anti-submarine warfare offering.
And it is not just about adding assets side by side. It is about enabling new [ commercial ] combinations that were not possible before. A good example is the ability to integrate our towed sonars onto Exail's DriX drones. This is exactly the kind of capability that will shape the unmanned anti-submarine warfare of tomorrow, and that is what makes this combination distinctive. We are not just broadening the portfolio. We are accelerating innovation and creating capabilities that, in most cases, no one else is currently able to offer.
Now looking on Slide 10 at a critical area of our respective portfolios, inertial navigation. Inertial navigation, where we plan to capitalize on our highly complementary capabilities to further penetrate key subsegments. Inertial navigation is more than ever a critical technology as it is a key enabler for accurate and precise navigation without relying on any external signals such as GPS. But more than that, it is a highly strategic technology in increasingly contested environments. It is crucial for continuity of operations for resilience and mission effectiveness. In that context, what Exail brings is a full range of multi-domain inertial navigation and subsea positioning solutions based on FOG, Fiber Optics Gyroscope that address and equip a wide range of platforms, surface ships, submarines, drones, land vehicles and satellites. Its offering is particularly relevant in medium to high-performance applications while leveraging strong volume capabilities.
On the Thales side, we enjoyed a recognized expertise in high-performance inertial navigation systems across domains and especially in the most demanding environments. We have a strong track record in complex inertial navigation systems in avionics, leveraging advanced technologies such as proven Ring-Laser Gyro technology. So the strategic rationale here is very clear. By combining our strengths, we will strengthen a core technological capability that is relevant across the vast majority of Thales' markets with naval being a key area of expansion.
Good morning. This is Jeremie Papin, Thales' CFO. Turning to Slide 11. This is a detailed look at Exail's financials. Exail has enjoyed a strong financial performance, posting a 20% average annual revenue growth over the past 3 years and a significant recovery in profit margin. The revenue growth is supported by the strong order intake booked over the past years and the gradual ramp-up of the group's production capacities, both in maritime products and in navigation systems. In Q1 of 2026, Exail published a 40% growth year-on-year in consolidated revenue and confirmed solid double-digit growth objectives. In a structurally growing market and leveraging over EUR 1 billion in backlog, Exail can enjoy further revenue growth with a significant step-up in margins anticipated in the coming years. This is underpinned by the ramp-up of new large programs, coupled with strong operational leverage driving margin improvement and an expected acceleration in cash flow generation.
Moving on to Slide 12. Let's take a closer look at synergies. The acquisition of Exail and the combination with Thales' existing businesses can deliver significant synergies, both on revenue and cost. First, on the revenue side, synergies will be significant for Thales. We just discussed about the product and technology complementarity between the two companies in fast-growing markets, and this complementarity is breeding ground for revenue synergies. We are targeting about EUR 500 million additional sales within 10 years that will come from significant cross-selling opportunities into Thales' installed base and programs upgrade. We will leverage our global customer reach as we have long-standing customer relationship with over 50 navies worldwide.
On the cost side, we expect to generate EUR 60 million run-rate cost synergies to be achieved by 2030. This will be achieved through a deeper shared expertise in new technologies and next-gen systems, the combination of commercial networks and geographical footprint as well as standardized product development and accelerated R&D. SG&A and procurement optimization will also meaningfully contribute to these cost synergies. In total, the contribution to Thales adjusted EBIT from both revenue and cost synergies will amount to around EUR 90 million by 2032 with further upside from revenue synergies in the following years.
Moving on to Slide 13. The transaction presents an attractive value accretion for Thales and our shareholders. The transaction is based on a price of EUR 134 per share, implying an enterprise value for Exail Technologies of EUR 3.9 billion. Considering the strong synergistic potential, we believe it is relevant to look at the valuation multiple post synergies. This valuation represents a multiple of 24x the 2027 adjusted EBIT, including cost synergies and 20x, including both the cost and revenue synergies expected at EUR 90 million in 2032. Considering the expected growth and accretive profitability profile, this represents compelling multiple for an asset of high quality. Importantly, the transaction will be accretive to adjusted EPS in the first year post-closing. This operation fits into Thales' disciplined capital allocation, the company will maintain a solid investment-grade profile and our expected pro forma 2027 net financial leverage should reach about 0.7x. In terms of value accretion, the ROCE is expected to exceed cost of capital within 5 years.
So last slide, Slide #14. So in summary, with this transaction, we are creating a world-class player in robotized or unmanned or uncrewed underwater warfare with the scale, the technologies and the capabilities really to lead in a market that is becoming both more strategic and faster moving. Through this transaction, given our strong complementarities with Exail, we are also building a top-tier and a comprehensive portfolio in inertial navigation, covering all key domains, applications and platforms. And behind the strategic fit, the value accretion logic is clear. This combination brings a strong potential for revenue acceleration, supported by market growth and clear opportunities for synergies on both the commercial and operational sides. In short, this is clearly a strategic move that strengthens our position, broadens our capabilities and creates a stronger platform for profitable growth.
Thank you all for your attention, and we are now ready to answer any questions you may have with Jeremie. The floor is yours.
[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Chloe Lemarie from Jefferies.
2. Question Answer
The first one was actually be on the sales growth expected for Exail. So you indicated 20% by 2028, but then you talk about synergies in 2030 and then in 2032. So I just wanted to check if we could kind of extrapolate that type of growth beyond the 2028 horizon.
And then the second question is on synergies. So EUR 60 million cost synergies by 2030. Should we read from this that the full cost synergy will be realized by then and then you add EUR 30 million of revenue synergies that will flow through a little bit later?
Yes. Good morning, Chloe. So on the growth prospects, we believe that the growth momentum at Exail can maintain a strong double-digit beyond 2028 to which, obviously, we will be adding as they integrate the group. And so this is why we're giving you an indication of this acceleration by indicating that the revenue synergies at a run-rate will be about EUR 500 million within 10 years.
Now on the cost side, you are right, assuming an acquisition that is being closed within the second half of 2027 and a controlling stake for Thales, full control, we will be implementing and chasing cost synergies, which we believe will be achieved at a run-rate within 3 years post the acquisition, so probably in 2030, and those would be EUR 60 million. And to help you in your calculation, we gave you a 5-year 2032 outlook where you have the EUR 60 million of cost at a run rate and EUR 30 million from revenue, but obviously, limited revenue gain in 2032, much bigger revenue impact from the EUR 500 million of additional revenue by further beyond 2032. Does this answer your question?
It does.
We now move to our next question. And the next question comes from the line of Aleksander Peterc from Bernstein.
I just have two. The first one is if you could give us the breakup fee.
And then secondly, if you could give us the fully diluted share count that you use in your EV calculation and maybe the whole bridge from EV to equity value.
So on the breakup fee, we don't think this will be materializing. So we will not comment on that, but it has been agreed with Exail.
On the share count, Alex, it -- we are using 17 million. But obviously, as you point, there are a number of debt instruments that are linked to the acquisition price. And in total, we are assuming a net debt at Exail of EUR 1.6 billion with about EUR 2.2 billion to EUR 2.3 billion in gross debt and EUR 600 million to EUR 700 million in cash. Does this answer your question?
Yes, it does. So you do count the convertibles as part of that, you don't [ lose ]...
Yes. Yes, convertibles and all the instruments, including some management packages that have been put in place. So there are a number of items that build up the EUR 1.6 billion -- the EUR 3.9 sorry, billion of equity value that we are considering -- of enterprise value that we are considering and EUR 2.3 billion of equity value.
We will now move to our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Ian Douglas-Pennant from UBS.
It's great to see capital being deployed into the defense business. Congratulations. What lessons do you take from past integrations, especially from Imperva to this integration of Exail, high-growth business that -- high-growth high-tech business you're bringing on board, please?
And secondly, with the significant synergies being discussed on this call, what measures has Exail put in place to motivate employees, especially over the next year before the deal closes?
We can share the answer with Jeremie. Hi, Ian, thanks for your two questions. The first one related to integration. As far as this acquisition is concerned, I really think that this one is quite straightforward. I mean it's the core of the core business of Thales. It's defense. It's a project-based company with R&D largely based in France, by the way. So the cultural fit is also quite straightforward with the other French defense activities that we have at Thales. We share the same customers. We share the same knowledge in terms of typically anti-mine warfare. We are also -- as we explained, as I did explain during the call, the same market in terms of inertial system being complementary, but knowing both technologies and customer requirements.
So really, I don't see I would say -- I would say I don't see any difficulty to integrate Exail with or within Thales. Of course, it would be important to keep its agility because clearly, definitely, it's a smaller company compared to Thales. But with the example of Cobham AeroComms, we have demonstrated our ability to integrate much smaller company within Thales, applying, I would say, our rigor, if I may say, but still keeping their agility, their ability to innovate fast, which is, I would say, part of the value of these companies. On the second one, maybe, Jeremie?
Yes. I think, Ian, we are -- we value, again, at Exail, their agility, their speed. We recognize some cost competitiveness in their products. And therefore, we see synergies, again, through R&D optimization, reallocation, obvious commercial synergies. And then I mentioned procurement and some SG&A savings. I think when you look at the growth profile that this business has and that the Thales businesses will benefit from, there is a lot of motivation there for the Exail teams. So once again, this is going to be an integration where we will clearly protect and nurture and feed into Thales some of the agility and speed that we can see at Exail. I hope this answers the question.
[Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from the line of Herve Drouet from CIC CIB.
First question is, do you see -- and for you, what could be the risk you think that may reduce the chance of Thales of making that acquisition? I mean, is there some risk you see? I mean, there has been different press release about certain disagreement with, for example, ICG, one of the financial partners of Exail Technologies about valuations. I mean, could you say a little bit more on how you conducted these agreements? And do you have the green light from all parties, ICG included? So that's the first question.
And second question is, why is there, in your view, so much time? I mean you are talking about third quarter of 2027 to finalize the acquisition. Could you maybe elaborate a bit more why that will take so much time, in your view, to get a full closing of that transaction?
Thank you, Herve, and I will share the floor with Jeremie. On the risk side, if I got your point correctly, personally, I do not anticipate, I would say, any significant risk in this transaction. We have tried to explain during the call how complementary we are with Exail. So that leads, by the way, to the second part of your question. We need to -- as for any file, by the way, we need to get the normal authorization from the antitrust bodies in Europe or in different European countries, depending on the threshold of the turnover we do -- Exail does in these countries. Usually, our -- I would say, our experience is that it takes, let's say, 12, 15 months.
Hence, the fact that we said a reasonable time frame is Q3 2027. So this is quite, I would say, standard normal. If we can do it quicker, we would be happy to do it quicker. But this is, I would say, a kind of a normal time frame to get all these authorizations. We could mention as well FDI authorizations, but it will be also quite straightforward to my opinion. This is for the first step. And do remember that there is a second step after this, let's say, Q3 2027, the fact that we would be not obliged, but there is a mandatory tender offer that would be launched to buy the remaining shares, the floating shares outside the 35% that we would have acquired from the Gorgé family. Jeremie, any...
Yes. And this is a process that usually takes about three months for the tender offer. So that gives you an idea of why we think we will close by the end of '27 and start full speed integration and working closely with the Exail's teams in 2028.
And could you elaborate a little bit there has been with this potential valuation disagreement with ICG. I mean, in the past, there's been in the press some articles about potential valuation difference view between the ECG and at the holding level at Exail Holding. I don't know if there are anything you can say regarding that?
So we believe it's quite straightforward from the moment there is an acquisition price that has been set. It is kind of mechanical.
[Operator Instructions] We will now take our next question. And our next question comes from the line of David Perry from JPMorgan.
So two quick questions, and I'd like to sneak one in on the other news from Friday, if I may, on the F126. Just on the Exail deal, could you just give -- on Page 5, what are the split of the sales from maritime robotics versus navigation and positioning, please? You bundled them together. And then you've given us the sales growth for the business as a whole. It would be interesting to have it for each product segment, if possible.
And then just if I may ask, just the charge you took on the F126 seems absolutely enormous for a single program. Can you just talk a little bit about what happened there?
Thank you, David. So I'll take the first one, and I'll leave...
The Exail, you take.
Yes, for Exail. They did not disclose, in fact, the split between inertial systems or navigation and maritime robotics. The 2 represents 75% of the business as we said, now I can give you, let's say, a qualitative answer. So take it as a qualitative answer as it is not again disclosed by Exail itself, it's roughly the same. It's roughly balanced between navigation on one hand and maritime robotics on the other side -- on the other hand. On the...
On the F126 -- on the growth sorry, just the growth on the different product areas?
No, anything -- we don't disclose so far or they don't disclose so far this split of the growth between the two, let's say, subsegments. Sorry, I cannot be more precise, David. Sorry, it's by fault.
Again, David, we would point to the fact that the company -- Exail as a company has provided guidance, and we see that being realized. But that's where we'll leave it at for the moment. On the F126 contract, again, it's a sizable exceptional charge. It will have no impact on our adjusted EBIT. It is a situation where we were supplying a shipbuilder that has faced difficulties in the program.
And we -- while we were supporting our final customer, we maintained workload while there was a gap with cash in. So ultimately, we had to take this charge. We do not have any contract that is set up in a similar way. So this was absolutely the exception. And most importantly, we have not assumed any compensation in the charge we have booked, and we intend to forcefully fight for our rights given that we have delivered and supported the final customer at all steps in this contract. Our last one, last question.
Our last question comes from the line of Alessandro Pozzi from Mediobanca.
It looks like today is underwater day. One of your competitors also announced the acquisition of four companies today. I was wondering with the acquisition of Exail how do you see the strength of your portfolio vis-a-vis your competitors in terms of the breadth of the portfolio, technical capabilities? And how do you expect to see your market share going forward?
The second question on -- maybe going back to the 126, you talked about impairment you talked about this is the only contract set up in this way. What are the lessons learned from this impairment?
I'll take the first one. The first one is could take a bit of time to deep dive -- and it's not a pun word, by the way, when I say deep dive on this market. But if I try to summarize the situation, the -- I would say, the excellence, the worldwide excellence of Thales is definitely recognized in the sonar business, in the sonar activity, be it, I would say, towed array sonar, be it, I would say, a bouys sonar, flank array sonar, anti-submarine sonar, dipping sonar. We have a full range and a wide portfolio of sonar that we have sold across many, many navies across the world. So definitely, it's an area of really excellence and really meaningful in this domain.
Now you have, I would say, other complementary or adjacent, I would say, segments. We discussed typically anti-mine warfare segment, which -- in which you need sonars, by the way, but not only sonars. And one of the reasons why we have decided to move on Exail, but you have also the sonobuoy market, you have many other adjacent markets. I'm not sure to which transaction you are referring to. But looking at Thales, we have definitely a very, very strong positioning in the wide undersea or yes, undersea warfare market. And the future merge with Exail will clearly reinforce our presence in this domain.
Last point, do remember that it's not only a French activity. We are the champion, of course, based in France, but also based in the U.K. where we do supply typically sonar for the nuclear submarine of the Royal Navy. And we are also the champion in Australia as well. And we have won and we are starting a strong position as well in Canada. So definitely, our footprint, our portfolio is spread across the continent, and it's not only purely French-based activities. That's maybe what I try to -- when I can summarize, but it's a very, I would say, good question you've raised, Alessandro.
Yes. I was also referring to the PathMaster. I think you launched as a clearing system for mine. Is there any feedback you can give us on that system yet?
I'm not sure I took -- I got your point, Alessandro.
I think you've launched a new mine clearance system, the PathMaster. Is there any update on that product?
There is a lot of traction. It's -- this one is dedicated for what we call expeditionary mission. And of course, we have launched it because we have seen many navies willing to have, I would say, probably easier deployable system, probably a bit lighter to pursue under the counter-mine measure, I would say, the missions. And of course, I'm pretty sure that we'll book contracts or we'll be able to celebrate successes in this subsegment of the anti-mine warfare domain.
And the last one on the 126, if you could.
On the 126, Alessandro, I would say this came as a complete surprise. We had been working with the German Ministry of Defense towards supporting the transfer to a new shipbuilding shipyard. We have worked with Rheinmetall. We have worked, of course, with Damen. So clearly, we have been, I would say, very, I would say, proactive to support the customer in all their demands in all the different dimensions. And indeed, we have been as surprised as Mr. Papperger of Rheinmetall. So it's not a question of being, I would say, introduced in Germany. By the way, we have a strong footprint in Germany.
I think all the different stakeholders were extremely surprised and as well shocked or if not disappointed by this piece of news. After a year of hard work to transfer this contract from Damen to Rheinmetall -- so believe me, and I'm going to repeat what Jeremie said, we will fight, I would say, fiercely to, I would say, make our rights being, I would say, respected and to be, I would say, compensated by this, I would say, very disappointing decision, unilateral decision from the German MoD.
Okay. Do you think it will lead to changes in how procurement is done in Germany?
Sorry, say that again? It's pretty bad. I'm sorry.
Yes. Sorry. Do you think it will lead to changes in the procurement from German contracts?
I don't know, too soon to say. I don't know.
Okay. Thank you all for your questions. If you have any follow-up questions, do not hesitate to reach out to Louis and the IR team. And thanks for your presence. Thanks for your reactivity. I wish you all a very good day. Thank you, and talk to you soon. Bye-bye.
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Thales — Thales S.A., Exail Technologies - M&A Call
Thales — Thales S.A., Exail Technologies - M&A Call
Thales kündigt die Übernahme von Exail an, um maritime Robotik, unbemannte U-Boot-Waffen und Trägheitsnavigation zu stärken; erhebliche Synergien und Wertschöpfung werden erwartet.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Takeaway: Thales will Exail kaufen (EUR 134/Share) in einem Zweischritt‑Deal: Erwerb von 35,51% jetzt, gefolgt von einem Pflichtangebot für 100% nach Closing; Ziel ist beschleunigtes Wachstum in Mine‑Countermeasures, unbemannten Anti‑U‑Boot‑Systemen und Trägheitsnavigation sowie gemeinsame F&E (u.a. Quanten‑Sensing).
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Markt Exail liefert starke Positionen in maritimer Robotik und präziser Navigation; Mine‑Countermeasures und unbemannte ASW (Anti‑Submarine Warfare) sind hochwachsende, strategische Segmente.
- Technologie Ergänzung von Fiber Optic Gyroscope (FGO)‑basierten Inertialsystemen mit Thales’ Hochleistungs‑Trägheitslösungen und Sonar/ISR‑Kompetenzen.
- R&D & Synergien Gemeinsame F&E‑Kapazitäten sollen Innovationstempo erhöhen (Quantum Roadmap) und neue integrierte Produktkombinationen ermöglichen (z.B. Schleppsonar auf Exail‑Drohnen).
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Preis & Größe: Angebot bei EUR 134/Share, impliziert EV ≈ EUR 3,9 Mrd.; Equity Value ~EUR 2,3 Mrd.
- Synergien: Ziel: EUR 500 Mio. Umsatzsynergien in 10 Jahren; EUR 60 Mio. Kostensynergien Run‑Rate bis 2030; Beitrag zu bereinigtem EBIT ≈ EUR 90 Mio. bis 2032.
- Finanzen: Akquisition soll EPS‑akkretiv im ersten Jahr nach Closing sein; pro forma Net‑Leverage ~0,7x für 2027; EV/adj. EBIT ~24x (2027) bzw. ~20x inkl. Synergien.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Wachstum & Timing: Analysten fragten nach nachhaltiger Wachstumsrate jenseits 2028; Management erwartet anhaltend zweistelliges Wachstum und konkretisiert Synergie‑Phasen (Kosten bis 2030, volle Revenue‑Wirkung später).
- Bewertung & Vertragsdetails: Fragen zu Breakup‑Fee, voll verwässerter Aktienzahl (Thales nennt 17 Mio. für EV‑Berechnung) und Auseinandersetzungen mit Finanzpartnern (ICG) blieben knapp beantwortet, keine Details zu Streitigkeiten.
- Regulatorik & Integration: Abschlusszeitplan bis Q3 2027 wegen üblichen Kartell‑/FDI‑Prüfungen; Integration wird als machbar beschrieben, Fokus auf Erhalt von Exails Agilität und Motivation der Mitarbeiter.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikationen: Strategisch sehr stimmiger Zukauf, der Thales’ Unterwasser‑ und Navigationsportfolio deutlich erweitert und kurz‑ bis mittelfristig EPS‑akkretiv sein soll; Risiko liegt in regulatorischem Timing, Integrationsausführung und der Umsetzung der ehrgeizigen Synergien.
Thales — Thales S.A., Q1 2026 Sales/ Trading Statement Call, Apr 21, 2026
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Thales Q1 2026 Order Intake and Sales Conference Call. The presentation will be held by Pascal Bouchiat, Thales CFO. It will be followed by a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I must advise you that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Louis Igonet, VP, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Good morning, all. Welcome, and thank you for joining us for the presentation of Thales Q1 2026 Order Intake and Sales. I am Louis Igonet, Head of Investor Relations at Thales. With me today is Pascal Bouchiat, Chief Financial Officer of Thales. As usual, this presentation is audio broadcasted live on our website, thalesgroup.com, where the slides and press release are also available for download. A replay will be available soon after the end of the event.
With that, I'd like to turn over the call to Pascal Bouchiat.
Good morning, everyone. Let me start with Q1 2026 highlights. I'm now on Slide 2. We released today a robust first quarter 2026 that reflects the continued positive momentum across our businesses. Order intake was up sharply year-on-year, driven by the high level of demand for Thales products and solutions in a global supportive market environment. Even though I would like to reiterate that looking at order intake on a quarterly basis can be misleading, this performance illustrates the relevance of our premium portfolio, moreover in light of the current events.
Sales posted almost 10% organic growth in the quarter with a particularly strong performance in defense. The strong start to the year reflects both the quality of our backlog and continued solid execution across programs. Q1 also saw the continuous enrichment of our offer, notably in defense. You are already well aware of Thales technological leadership and the increasing efforts we put on innovation. And this is a new testimony with solutions increasingly powered by AI.
We indeed introduced SkyDefender, a multilayer and multi-domain air defense dome designed to provide full protection against the growing complexity and diversity of aerial threats. SkyDefender naturally includes the SAMP/T NG for midrange air defense alongside other multiple Thales solutions to also address short and long-range threats. We also unveiled Expeditionary PathMaster, a turnkey system that enables the conduct of full naval mine countermeasure missions. These leading offers, both boosted by our AI algorithms, illustrate how Thales is combining advanced technologies with operational expertise to deliver differentiated solutions that are more than ever at the heart of our clients' key priorities.
Finally, in space, Thales once again demonstrated its role as a trusted partner for its clients' sovereign capabilities. Thales Alenia Space was selected to supply a defense geostationary communication satellite to Luxembourg. This contract highlights our ability to support governments with strategic space capabilities and confirms the strength of our positioning in a domain that is becoming ever more critical for national autonomy and security. Overall, Q1 was a very solid quarter in the context of our 2026 objectives.
Moving on to order intake on Slide 3. Q1 2026 order intake was strong and amounted to EUR 4.7 billion as of end of March, which is a 27% organic growth versus Q1 2025. The commercial momentum remains strong across our businesses and in particular, defense. Large orders were a significant contributor to this performance. Seven of them were booked at group level in the first quarter this year for a total amount of EUR 1.6 billion against five large orders last year. Two large orders were booked in space, of which the defense geostationary communications satellite for Luxembourg, I already mentioned. Five large orders were booked in defense this quarter.
Among them, the SAMP/T NG order from Denmark as well as an air surveillance contract for Qatar, comprising various Ground Master radars. Besides large orders, the high granularity of order intake is also a source of satisfaction and resilience. In terms of volume, the orders with a unit value below EUR 10 million were again up year-over-year, and they accounted for half of the orders recorded in Q1 2026. It reflects the strength and diversity of demand across our businesses. A word finally on the performance by region. Order intake was particularly strong across Europe and Middle East this quarter, 2 regions that are seeing strong demand.
Moving on to sales on Slide 4. Sales amounted to EUR 5.3 billion in Q1 2026 and grew by 9.7% organically versus Q1 last year. This performance was primarily driven by Defense, where sales increased by 14.3% organically. Aerospace also delivered a good quarter with organic growth of 5.9%, driven by both Avionics and Space. Cyber & Digital recorded a 2% organic growth. From a geographic standpoint, growth was well distributed. Both mature and emerging markets showed solid sales growth and contributed to the overall performance.
In mature markets, Europe posted organic growth of 11.8%, while Australia and New Zealand grew by 14.3%. In emerging markets, which grew by 9.8% organically in the quarter, Middle East was particularly strong with a 29.8% organic growth. This broad-based dynamism underlines the strength and the relevance of our positioning with customers worldwide and our capacity to deliver. A word lastly on technical impact. Scope was not material this quarter. By contrast, currency effect was significant, mainly due to the year-on-year evolution of the euro against the U.S. dollar. Overall, currency led to a 2.5 points headwind on reported growth.
Let me now turn to performance by segment, starting with Aerospace on Slide 5. Order intake in Aerospace remained at a solid level in the first quarter and amounted to EUR 1.5 billion, up 1% in organic terms. The two large orders booked in Space offset the absence of large orders in Avionics this quarter, while Q1 last year benefited from a specific large order booked in Avionics. This reflects the natural lumpiness of order intake from one quarter to another, while underlying demand trends remain solid. To that extent, our original equipment in our Avionics business notably saw good order momentum in the first quarter. Sales reached EUR 1.4 billion in Q1 and posted robust organic growth of 5.9% over the period.
Avionics saw continued growth on a demanding comparison base as Q1 2025 sales were already up by strong double digits. This highlights the continued good level of activity across our end markets. While the current conflict in Iran had a negligible impact on Q1 performance, it could weigh on the aftermarket business from Q2 and onwards, depending on the evolution of air traffic in the short to midterm. In Space, sales growth was also solid, notably supported by the progressive contributions of orders booked in '24 and '25, which are now moving into execution. On a reported basis, total sales growth was impacted by foreign exchange.
Moving on now to Defense on Slide 6. Defense delivered a solid start to the year with order intake in the segment that amounted to EUR 2.2 billion in the first quarter, a 75% organic growth. Five large orders were booked in Q1 2026 compared to one in the same period last year. This strong order intake reflects ongoing commercial momentum across our entire portfolio and in all domains. The recent events and the global geopolitical climate highlight more than ever the relevance of Thales capabilities, supported by the depth of our portfolio. Two critical domains where Thales technologies and positioning is considered as best-in-class are particularly in the spotlight, namely air surveillance and defense and mine hunting capabilities.
Prospective in those two areas are strong. Sales amounted to EUR 3 billion, a robust 14.3% organic growth. This performance was a result of some program execution and was supported by further deliveries in the context of production ramp-up. We saw sustained momentum across the board, notably in the airborne, naval domains as well as sensors and effectors.
Moving now to Slide 9 -- excuse me, moving now to Slide 7. Cyber and Digital sales amounted to EUR 0.9 billion and delivered low single-digit sales organic growth in the first quarter, in line with the phasing anticipated for the year. In Cyber, the year started slowly as expected, with slightly negative organic growth. We anticipate a gradual and progressive growth recovery over the coming quarters. In Digital Identity, sales posted good organic growth as they were up 4%. This performance reflected continued sustained momentum in Digital Solutions, both in Payment Solutions and in Secure Connectivity. By contrast, payment cards still saw low volumes as expected. ForEx impact was overall material to reported sales growth over the quarter.
Concluding now with our financial objective for 2026 on Slide 8. The fundamental underpinning the group's activities are robust, supported by structurally favorable trends and offering strong visibility on the group's growth trajectory. We also remain attentive to the evolutions of the global geopolitical situation and its potential short and midterm effects. In that context, the robust first quarter and the visibility we have are giving us confidence to confirm all our objective for 2026. Book-to-bill ratio will be above 1. Sales are expected to grow organically between 6% and 7%, corresponding to a range of EUR 23.3 billion to EUR 23.6 billion. And the adjusted EBIT margin is expected between 12.6% and 12.8%.
Many thanks for your attention, and I will now be pleased to answer your questions.
[Operator Instructions] And the question comes from the line of Alessandro Pozzi from Mediobanca.
2. Question Answer
I have two. You're showing a strong top line growth in Defense on the back of capacity expansion. I was wondering if you can give us a bit more color there? And what should we expect for the rest of the year in terms of growth in Defense? And my second question on order intake. You had a stronger Q1 as well with seven large orders, of course, order intake can be lumpy. But I was wondering whether we are starting to see any impact, let's say, or positive benefit from the increased geopolitical tension that we've seen in the Middle East. You talked about Air Defense products with the SkyDefender and SAMP/T. And if you can give us maybe an update on your commercial momentum in defense, also for the SAMP/T, we heard about Turkey potentially being interested in the system. And any thoughts there would be appreciated.
Thank you very much, and good morning, Alessandro. So first on Defense. It's true that the 14% organic growth that we reported for Q1 is above our overall guidance and expectation for the full year. Let's be clear about that. We guided the market as we released our 2026 objective for Defense at high single digits. And I do confirm this overall guidance for Defense organic growth in 2026. Of course, always good to start on a positive footing.
Maybe I could also update you on our challenges in terms of growth for Defense. And the reason why we are still a bit cautious as we look forward in particular for the rest of the year. Today, it's true that, as I said, we managed to ramp up a number of production capacities in many sites across the board at Thales.
Second point, we see still today some constraints not issues, but some constraints when it comes to supply chain, even though, overall, we have been able to manage supply chain challenges, in particular in Defense pretty successfully over the last few years. It's true that at this point, it's not over. And I mentioned many times, in particular constraints with regards mechanical parts, but also PCB and PCBA. So those electronic boards that are absolutely critical for us.
And to that, I would also add today some constraint when it comes to supplies on energetics and propellants, which are also pretty important when it comes to producing effectors. So this is why we are, at this point, a bit cautious when it comes to 2026 organic growth for Defense.
Now in terms of momentum, and I guess your second question was about order intake, pretty strong Q1 and what we see today. So when it comes to defense order intake and as we look forward in 2026, we're pretty positive. Overall, we see a pretty strong level of momentum, level of demands. And you mentioned, in particular, the potential positive impact from the Middle East situations. It's also true that we got requests for what is called UOR, Urgent Operational Requirements from some clients in the Middle East. So which is in terms of business development, pretty positive.
Will this positively impact our 2026 order intake? The answer is yes. This is my view on this matter. Will we start seeing our concrete additional revenue in 2026? At this point, it's probably a bit too early. Even though, we got this type of demands, we know that, in particular, in these regions, it can take a bit of time to move from request for proposal to signing a contract and to effectively being able to start recognizing revenue. But overall, it is positive. And it's true that, in particular, in these regions, but even though more globally, it's true that air surveillance, air defense, in particular, domains where we see today a number of requests.
You asked me about the overall commercial campaigns with regards to SAMP/T NG. On that, I cannot give you more insight on this matter because as you can imagine, it is pretty sensitive. But globally, when we go through our spectrum of businesses of activities, it's true that air surveillance, which is much broader than SAMP/T NG. And in particular, we get today a number of requests when it comes to air surveillance, so radar-driven type of demand across the board.
Second point is also with regard ammunitions, rockets, in particular. Also, a domain where we see a strong level of demand. So overall, making a long story short, we need to be a bit cautious when it comes to revenue growth, but I do confirm the high single-digit growth for 2026. When it comes to order intake, my tone is probably even a bit more positive than it was a few months ago, considering the prospects that we see today coming from the overall geopolitical context.
Just a follow-up on the SkyDefender. How are you planning to market that product? Is it mainly for European countries, for the Middle East?
I suppose the answer is yes, of course. SkyDefender is multi-range overall protection dome, moving from what we call VSHORAD, very short-range air defense to long-range air defense capabilities through mid-range defense capabilities through our SAMP/T NG offering. So it's really a comprehensive sets of capabilities. Very short range is about what we call our ForceSHIELD type of capabilities, based on both rader capability, but also effectors, in particular, what we call the LMM and also RapidRanger type of offering. Mid-range is, as you know, SAMP/T NG and long range is early warning capabilities that allows to get early detections.
And all of that powered by AI-driven command and control, which is in the name of slides. So all of that is available today. And of course, we market this offering across the board in various countries, you mentioned Middle East and Europe are two examples of countries where we market this overall offering.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Olivier Brochet from Rothschild & Co.
I had three quick ones, please. The first one is on Defense orders. Can you just give us a bit of a flavor of what happened in France? Did we get any delays or anything related to the delay in budget in that country? Second, on Mine Hunting, you flagged that as an area where you have a lot of skills. Can you just remind us how significant it is in terms of revenues for you? And third one on Cyber. You also mentioned a gradual improvement in revenue throughout the year. Can you elaborate on the factors that will contribute to that improvement, please?
Okay. So first good morning, Olivier Brochet. On your first question about Defense order and the French component of Defense orders, nothing very specific to report to you on this matter. In 2026, probably, as you know, the French budget was voted beginning of the year, pretty much like what happened in 2025. Now it's true that in Q1 2025, we have seen some kind of freeze in terms of order intake, at least for Thales, with regards the French MOD. This is not what happened in Q1 2026.
And today no specific point to report with regard the French budget for 2026, except that it has been confirmed, as you know, with overall what is expected in 2026 in the overall French Defense spending is a growth of 13% in 2026 against 2025. So overall, it is positive.
Mine hunting capabilities in terms of revenue. Today, this is a small business. And the reason is, at this point, only a few navies have decided to get equipped on this type of pretty sophisticated system. And it's true that if I look back over the last 20 years, it's true that a number of navies have, I would say, given up this type of capabilities and what happened in the Hormuz Strait was a bit of a wake-up call for a number of navies and they are challenging themselves about the need to come back on this type of capabilities.
It's good because you've got a few countries, and in particular, U.K. and France grow as opposed to other navies have decided a bit more than 10 years ago to launch developments of new mine hunting capabilities. And this is what they have done with Thales. And we started developments of this new type of capability, what we call today the Expeditionary Pathfinders (sic) [ Expeditionary PathMaster ] 10 years ago.
And we are today in the process of delivering our assistance to the U.K. and to the British and the French navies. It's a pretty sophisticated type of system that embark various drones and robots, starting with what we call USV, Unmanned Surface Vessel, that carries payloads, in particular, a towed array plus robots that are able to put a military charge just close to the mine. All of that driven by AI. So I can tell you a pretty sophisticated type of system.
And yes, this really reflect Thales' capability to come up with pretty complex autonomous AI-driven system for our clients. And in this case, for navies. So we'll see, but at this point, a pretty low level of revenue. But probably a type of capabilities where we'll see demand growing in the next few years.
So Cyber, what is positive is that we have seen in Q1 order intake in two segments getting back to growth. And those are the two most important segments overall for Thales, which are DataSec and AppSec, which is positive. So the factors behind that, as you ask, Olivier, is I would say it's getting back to normal, which is today our commercial forces are fully trained with the right level of incentives.
As we mentioned, as we released our 2025 figures today, level of turnover when it comes to this commercial force, getting back to what is normal, i.e., 15% overall annual loan turnover for sales reps, whereas in 2025, it went up to 25%. So overall, we should see now and as from Q2, a positive growth on Cyber. And all of that consistent with what we said for the full year in terms of expected growth for Cyber, that should be mid-single digit, mid-single digit plus.
And the questions come from the line of Christophe Menard from Deutsche Bank.
I had two actually on Cyber and Digital. First, continuing on Cyber. Just reflecting on recent developments we've heard about AI. Has it changed your approach to product development? Any updated you have on this? Given also your good knowledge of AI, it may be applicable to your Cyber product line. Another question is on biometry. I may have missed it, but I don't think you've talked about it in the release. Is it stable or what is the outlook for biometry for the rest of the year?
So on your first questions about AI for Cyber, in particular in terms of product development, the answer is yes. We now use AI for Cyber product development. Commercial cybersecurity is mainly software development, so it is about coding. And it's true that AI-driven coding allows to go much quicker in terms of product development and using our engineers no longer to code, but to test, to validate what AI produced in terms of coding. So I'm not telling you that there is no more manual coding, but the proportion between manual coding from engineers to AI coding has shifted pretty significantly. So the answer is yes.
AI, this type and your question was about product development. Yes, AI driven by automatic coding.
Biometric overall, Q1, I would say, is stable. Now, maybe a point of vigilance on this matter. And I guess there will be also a question about our Avionics business, we are a bit vigilant when it comes to biometrics is the side effect of the Middle East crisis because biometrics goes together with mobility with people traveling, with air traffic because a number of our solutions are both secure documents.
And basically the renewal of secured documents is very much linked with people deciding to travel plus biometric, used in particular on airports. So all of that being driven by air traffic. So this is why we are a bit cautious today and looking at what is going to happen in terms of evolution of air traffic, considering what is happening in the Middle East.
May I ask just a follow-up on the AI? I was also thinking that given that AI may show some increased vulnerabilities on infrastructure, are you planning to spend more on R&D in Cyber or same type of amount?
No. Overall, the level of R&D spending on Cyber is pretty high. You probably have in mind that this is a business where gross margin is around 75%. But where -- behind that, you've got a level of sales and marketing around also 25%, 20% plus and R&D also in excess of 20%. So this is the standard level of R&D. And our intent is to keep having it at this level.
However, it's true that AI is a bit of multiplying factors in terms of overall effectiveness of our R&D. If we can use AI for coding, it means that our engineers can spend more time on other type of things. So this is why for the same level of spending, you could have a global positive effect, in particular, in terms of speed of development. This is our view.
And the questions come from Sebastian Growe from BNP Paribas.
The first one would also be on Avionics and in the wake of Middle East conflicts, there are currently concerns that jet fuel availability is only being guaranteed until mid of May, especially for the European Airlines. With that, it might lead to forced capacity cuts. So the question that I'm having is, how do you prepare for any such scenario? And how should we think of the visibility in terms of weeks or months that you have at this stage? And then I would have two more in Defense and a quick one on Digital. So maybe you can take the Avionics question first.
So Avionics, jet fuel and so on. So there are two side effects of the Middle East crisis. One is, of course, jet fuel prices going through the roof. And second, a potential jet fuel availability. So what we start seeing today is some airlines even though they have still access to jet fuel, considering that some of their flights are no longer profitable because of the steep increase in the jet fuel price. And in particular, those airlines that are not hedged on their jet fuel exposure.
This is today what we start seeing at this point more than the jet fuel availability. It seems like, and here, I'm referring to statements from various authorities, that at this point, in Europe, there is no shortage of jet fuel, even though we have seen some alerts, in particular in Italy, but it's very specific.
The situation could be a bit more difficult in Asia in terms of jet fuel availability. Not today, but for the next few months, yes, it could be jet availability in some countries, in particular, in Asia could be a second issue. Now what we see today is more about the impact of higher price for jet fuel and some airlines deciding to reduce overall capacity, deciding to start reducing what they call ASK, Available Seat Kilometers. This is what we see. And this is why, at this point, we are a bit vigilant in terms of aftermarket. Q1 for Avionics aftermarket was pretty solid.
Now, I guess it's recognized the fact that air traffic as compared to the initial 2026 projections, air traffic will be lower overall. Of course, all of that will depend upon the length of the crisis. But overall, we need to consider a drop in air traffic against the initial 2026 expectations. And this will have probably some kind of side effect on aftermarket. What will be the size of the reduction in demand at this point, it's really too early.
Again, Q1 was not affected because the crisis started end of February. So because of the lagging effect, we have not seen any impact in the aftermarket. We could start seeing some impact as early as Q2. But, at this point, probably too early to give you more insight on this matter, which is moving pretty quickly.
Thank you very much for the comprehensive answer. Then quickly on Defense and the orders pattern here, particularly on the SAMP/T NG order for Denmark. Can you provide some more color with regard to the number of systems that were sold? And how should we think of the potential follow-up order eventually from Denmark? And I think there was a lot of talk and also around the configuration previously, which was not defined yet. So if you could also comment on how we should think of the number of launches, the missiles, please that would be helpful.
So what can we say on this matter, which is as you can consider this is pretty sensitive information. So we have not communicated and our belief is that our clients has not communicated, in particular, on the number of systems, and they have not communicated on the number of missiles. So I cannot go very deep and sorry for that.
Maybe what we can -- what I can -- we explain is what does this represent overall? The sales of one battery. We said a few months ago is that one battery with 48 missiles, this represents approximately EUR 500 million. And we explained that when we look at the system parts, putting aside missiles, Thales' share represent more than 50%. Because what we do is we provide both radars plus most of the command and control for any battery.
And second, what we said is that on the missile part, we represent approximately 10% of the price of any missile for SAMP/T NG as we produce a seeker. So this is what I can share. Now, I cannot go further because once again, it's not public, it's not public information.
That's understandable. That helped me at least quite a bit. So thank you for that. And then lastly, on the digital part with Cyber & Digital, you pointed to low volume and payment cards in the first quarter. So the question here is, can you comment on the business outlook from here, i.e., for the rest of the year? And I'm asking the question in the wake of, I think, a pretty sizable difference in the margin quality within the various activities inside the Digital business. Yes, if you could comment on this, that would be much appreciated.
On payment card, as opposed to Digital Solutions, it's true that we keep seeing a level of volume that is slightly positive. However, with a pressure on prices that is still there. So this is why we are a bit cautious in terms of margin for payment counts. All of that is reflected in the overall 2026 guidance for CDI that we mentioned when we released our 2025 financials.
We said that 2026 EBIT margin for CDI should be around 13%. So this is what I can confirm. Now, it's true that most likely H2 in terms of EBIT margin would be higher than H1. And the reason, in particular is also because Q4 on CDI is traditionally a pretty strong quarter in terms of volumes and in terms of margin. But overall, what we see today in terms of level of demands on payment cards is really in line with the guidance that we shared with you a few weeks ago.
Now overall, you have seen our Digital business in Q1, reporting a 4% organic growth, which was a bit above expectations, which means that, overall, payment counts was absolutely decent in terms of level of revenue. And also, the mobile communication system in terms of demand was also pretty satisfactory in Q1.
And the question comes from the line of Ian Douglas-Pennant from UBS.
Just going back to the full year guidance. At what point would it be reasonable for you to revisit your full year guidance, especially I'm looking at the 6% to 7% organic growth for this year. It looks, I guess, one quarter that Cyber is tracking finally in line with your expectations. Defense is clearly tracking ahead, although I recognize what you're saying on supply chain. At what point would it be credible to revisit that? Or is it literally just the aftermath the civil aviation uncertainty that's holding you back?
And then secondly, could you talk about the -- I hear what you're saying about the incremental demand coming through from the Middle East, and it's great to hear how you're helping your customers in region. How durable do you think that demand is? Is this something we're still going to be talking about in a year's time? What's your sense here?
So in terms of full year guidance I guess based on H1, so mid-July, as we will report our H1 figures, of course, we'll share with you our update how we see the situation. And of course, I mentioned various uncertainties. I mentioned, in particular, the impact of the Middle East crisis. And hopefully mid-July, we'll know much more about whether it will have been fixed or whether we need to get ready for a prolonged period of crisis.
And as I mentioned the potential impact on our Avionics business, and on our Biometric business, of course, mid-year we know more about that, and we will be more comfortable to guide you on this matter. And by the way, also pretty much the same thing when it comes to potential opportunities, in particular in Defense.
As I mentioned today a number of urgent operational requirements that have detailed and mid-year, we'll get a better view on how many of them will be converted into order intake. And how much of that we could deliver in H2. So potentially providing a tailwind on our overall defense revenue. So my view is that mid-year is probably the right timing for us to provide updates on how we see growth for the full year 2026.
Middle East, our view is that you need to understand that what is happening today in the Middle East is really a trauma for all countries in the regions. The intensity of the strike from Iran to a number of countries in the region is such that -- our view is that it's not just for the short term that those countries are willing to get better equipped, we believe that it's here again a long-term view. How to build up better protection capabilities and in particular, when it comes to air defense, whether it's against a long strike missiles, but also drones, which means that everything which is connected with air surveillance, with air defense is a matter where those countries will probably consider for the long term, having a level of capabilities, which is much higher than it was.
Also considering that, as you know, you have heard about the number of U.S.-made missiles that have been launched in the regions. And it seems like, U.S. providers could be also struggling to replenish inventories. So all of that will be also probably a driver for effectors, which is also overall positive. And last point, as I mentioned, the threat from maritime mines is a new topic, which has been forgotten in the past and which can be also a driver for growth in these regions.
Maybe last point and also linked to the number of Patriot missiles that have been launched that have been launched, it's true that, here again Thales and through Eurosam and MBDA being able to come up with ability to deliver more quickly this type of equipment. The air defense, in particular, SAMP/T can be also a positive factors to develop revenues in these regions. So our view is not just for the very short term, it's more a mid- long-term a positive trend in terms of need for better air surveillance, air defense capabilities in these regions. And I think, yes, this is okay. Okay. Ian?
Next question, please?
And the question comes from the line of Herve Drouet, from CIC CIB.
Two on my side. First one, could you give us an update on Bromo, with consolidation of the satellite business from your side on Airbus? Did you get some indication on the regulatory side already on how that can go further? And I was also wondering with the recent projects in Poland Military satellite project, was it signed with Bromo or with Airbus and Thales separately? So that was my first question.
The second question is regarding the French Military Law, which is likely to be passed to the assis French Assembly. That's been in the press despite the increased budgeted, some analysis saying that there will be some project which will be canceled while order will be more prioritized. And I was wondering if you can share with us if there is any of those projects, which could be impacted, is Thales significantly involved? And reversely, if there are some which are going to be accelerated, how that also can potentially impact Thales?
So first, on Bromo and Poland. And first on Bromo, we initiated -- we started the overall consultation processes with works council. And this has started -- each of the three players have started this type of consultations. And it is progressing. So no specific matter on this -- concern on this matter.
And second, which is on the critical part of the closing of these transactions is the feedback from the antitrust authorities, in particular, the European antitrust authority. So on this point, we started engaging with them in a positive way, in positive mood. Now we are at the beginning of the process, and I cannot be more explicit because it's going to be interactions in the next few quarters with, in particular the European antitrust authorities. And this is why we said that the closing of the Bromo project shouldn't happen before 2027. It will be in the course of 2027. So nothing more to report on this matter except to say that things on those two matters are progressing as expected.
So Poland, on military satellite together with Airbus, it shows that when it comes to export, in particular, on defense satellites, we work together with Airbus. It's not new. It's not linked at all -- to Bromo at all in the past. In a number of cases, when it comes to export and, in particular, when it comes to export to MODs, we may, I mean, two companies may decide to partner together, and this is the case in Poland. So, it's good to see a new European country deciding to buy from Thales Alenia Space and Airbus this type of sovereign capabilities.
I mentioned in my introduction that in Q1 2026, we managed to book a Defense geostationary satellite for Luxembourg. So two examples of European countries deciding to increase their overall defense capabilities. And we keep working on all the type of opportunities of this kind. Your second question was more about the French Loi De Programmation Militaire, and what we can say on this matter.
So first and it is positive to see that the update of this 2024-2030 program law has confirmed a significant ramp-up in terms of French defense spending. So overall, looking at the 2026 to 2030 period of time, so the additional level of budget that is today embedded in this update, this additional level amount to EUR 36 billion, which comes on top of the previous LPM, which you probably remember was voted in July 2023.
I need to say that this update will have to be voted also at the French parliament, which is still not the case, but we see here, again, a broad consensus across political parties on increasing our French defense spending. So good to see that, all in all, this represents an additional EUR 36 billion of Defense spending over 2026-2030. This also confirms what we're expecting from -- for 2026 and 2027. So overall, the growth in the French Defense budget in 2026 will be 13% versus 2025.
And if you look at 2027, it should be 11%. So good to see that the need for higher spending is now translated in this update of this LPM. Now in terms of priorities, capabilities and so on. First one, it is true that there have been comments about the number of platforms. And it's true that the priorities have been more on specific items that I'm going to explain in a few minutes as opposed to getting more platforms. And this is maybe what you got in terms of comments, cancellation of programs. No, it's not cancellation of program, but at this point, there is no more frigates, for instance, in the -- there is not a second aircraft carrier, no.
However, we've seen a number of domains where there will be a significant growth in terms of spending. So first is ammunition and effectors. With overall as compared to the previous LPM, a 50% increase in defense spending for ammunition effectors. Second is space, where there will be a 65% increase in Defense spending as compared to the initial LPM.
Third is drones, where there will be almost 40% increase in spending. Fourth is Air Defense, overall, with 32% higher spendings. And fifth is operational innovations with a 14% increase in Defense spending. To that -- on top of that, also three additional elements where the progression is more limited, but with still quite significant progressions. One is in-depth strike capacities. Second is naval combats and third is electronic warfare.
So all in all, it represents nine specific items that will cover those priorities. I've forgotten -- I'm sorry for that. I've forgotten also as a key domain of priorities, which is military aircraft with, in particular, the Rafale F5 standards being a key priority. And what is also positive is as you go through this list of nine priorities, Thales, we click all the boxes, which is positive. Whether it's effectors, military aircrafts, space, drone, air defense, in-depth strike capacities, innovations, novel combat, electronic warfare. I mean, we click all the boxes. So overall, we are pretty happy with this outcome and this list of priorities.
And the questions come from the line of Benjamin Heelan from Bank of America.
I had three. Just wanted to follow up on some of your comments on Cyber and the margin. You mentioned the 13% margin. But at the full year, I believe the kind of messaging was a slight improvement from 2025 underlying, which was around 13%. So just wanted to see if there was any change there.
Secondly, on the Defense capacity increases, right? Obviously, the capacity increase is what's been capping growth. And obviously, as you're investing, you're growing, right? So it's the capacity that's been the constraint. Where are you on this journey? Can you talk a little bit about capacity? What are the big areas of the Defense business that you're expanding capacity and how much more is there to go? Is there a framework that you can provide for that?
And I know you've had a couple of questions on Avionics already and the impact of the Middle East. Just wanted to add one, so over the last 6 weeks, you haven't really seen any impact to the aftermarket component of the Avionics portfolio. Is that a fair summary of what you've seen so far?
Okay. So, starting with Cyber. So this guidance to 13% is right in line with what we said at the -- as we released our 2025 financials. We mentioned, you probably remember that when we commented 2025 for CDI, we mentioned that we benefit from a few positive one-offs that in 2025 amounted to 0.7 percentage in terms of EBIT margin. And we said that those one-off, of course, will not happen again in 2026. And hence, the fact that we guided that at 13%. So no change on this matter.
Second, increase in Defense capability. It's really across the board on many sites. It is airborne type of capabilities on Rafale, in particular, whether it is your radar, what we call the SPECTRA, which is a device -- the system that protect the aircraft, whether it is the pods that allows to designate the target. It's about Ground Master radar ramp-up in capabilities, both in France and also, in particular, in 2026 in the Netherlands, where we are growing our overall production output.
It is our effectors in particular, with significant investments in Belfast, but also a new production investments in France about, in particular, the ammunitions. So here, I'm talking about many, many sites, could be also optronics in countries. It is in Germany as well in terms of radar capability. So it's really across the board.
Just because -- just to give you an idea, a good way also is to track the overall level of capital expenditure. When I look back a few years ago, what we used to spend on an annual basis was around EUR 500 million per year. In 2026, I said that we should be around EUR 840 million. So you see the progression of our overall capital expenditure that support these progressions in terms of production output.
Middle East aftermarket. So as I mentioned, no impact in March because there is a bit of lag effect. We think that there will be a first impact on our aftermarket in Q2. The first impact, the magnitude of it at this point, it's probably too early, to be more precise on this matter. But it's part of the overall uncertainties. It's also true that we see airlines behaviors being quite different from one airline to the other. Of course, the most affected are the one in the Middle East. But we also see some airlines, in particular, in Asia, considering the issue about jet fuels that I mentioned, starting to cancel flights and we need to see the impact of that.
Now as we discussed with airlines, it's also true that -- they also tell us that management of their fleet until now was pretty tight. And it might not be -- I mean, their first decisions will not be to cut or to stop maintenance. And in particular, as we are approaching this summer season, so this is what we get from some of our customers, where there will be probably more uncertainties is, in particular, if the Middle East crisis continues throughout the summer, it's probably decisions that airlines will make probably early September following the summer season to decide to reduce capacity.
So this is -- this will be, of course, a bit more challenging in terms of situations. This is not the case. We see a number of airlines willing to have the right level of capacity in order to address the summer season. It's more afterwards in case we see the Middle East crisis continuing that some of them could make more structural decisions, including, by the way, to exit some old aircrafts.
And the questions come from the line of Chloe Lemarie, from Jefferies.
Most of mine have been answered already, but I did have one on MBDA. They recently commented on a step-up in production in '26 by 40% in doubling CapEx plans to 2030. So I just wanted to check, first of all, have you seen orders for your components from MBDA that would kind of support that 40% growth? And was that included in your initial defense guide? And do you feel confident in this type of ramp, given your comments on PCB supply constraints?
So of course, I will not comment about how I see the likelihood of MBDA to deliver on their commitments. This question should be directed to MBDA. Now it's true that the level of demand for midsized producers have never been so high. And it's a matter of fact that MBDA is doing whatever it can to increase its overall production capacity. So no more comments, but of course, we will be glad to see MBDA accelerating. So all of that is overall positive and nothing more to add on this matter.
We are now going to take one final question. And the final question comes from the line of Ross Law from Morgan Stanley.
Just a couple of follow-ups really. The first is on the LPM and I guess, bigger picture, how this impacts your medium-term outlook, both in terms of guidance for growth, which you've already raised to the top end of the 5% to 7% range at the full year. But also in terms of capacity and sort of expansion plans and capital performance that you see going forward?
And then the second question, just on the SAMP/T, can you just remind us of the current production rate of that program and the ramp-up you're planning for the coming years?
So on the LPM , of course, this update of the French LPM provide us even more comfort about our overall defense trajectory. So this is positive. Does it mean that today, I'm going to change the midterm view on defense? The answer is no. But you have seen that my tone is pretty positive when it comes to 2026 overall in terms of order intake. And my view is that it will continue going forward.
And I would say, months after months, we see signals, all of them in the same directions about clear tailwinds with regard to our defense business. Today, we discussed two key elements. One is about this update of the French LPM. And the second is those opportunities from a business standpoint coming from the Middle East crisis, which means that in just a few months, the last 3 months, we add two, I would say, a positive -- two significant positive inputs. When it comes to our overall defense business, we see, again, not just a level of demand, but a nature in terms -- type of capabilities that our clients are looking for, that will match our overall positioning, which is positive.
SAMP/T, as you know, we are today finalizing the development phase of the new generation of SAMP/T. And we also said that the first battery for Denmark should be delivered, I think that we said end of 2027, beginning of 2028. We've got also the delivery to the -- to our French customers as well that should start shortly.
Now with regard to the overall production output, here again, as we did in our overall Defense businesses, we will be able to adjust to ramp up our production capability at Thales to follow the level of demands. It is essentially for us radars, in particular, which we -- what we call the Ground Fire 300, this new flat panel type of capabilities.
And the second point is command and control. Here again, we'll be able to adjust the level of production to match the level of demand. It could take a few years, yes, but eventually, we will be able to follow the level of demand. As by the way, we did over the last 3 years on most of our overall production, and in particular, the growth on the radars, but also in airborne equipments has been -- the growth has been done as we manage to ramp up our production output in line with the level of demand.
And this is what I said earlier, we might see and where we are a bit vigilant is about the supply chain in some cases, where we need to probably to keep working on the overall ramp-up and resilience of our supply chain for our Defense business, but this is what we have been doing and pretty successfully. If I look at the '24, '25 and Q1 2026 growth for our Defense business. So this is what I can say to you.
So thank you very much. Thank you all for your questions. Of course, the Investor Relations team is at your disposal. If you have any follow-up questions, so don't hesitate to reach out. Thank you very much. I wish you all a very good day and see you in the next few days, few weeks. Bye-bye.
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Thales — Thales S.A., Q1 2026 Sales/ Trading Statement Call, Apr 21, 2026
Starkes Q1: Auftragsvolumen kräftig gestiegen, Umsatzbeschleunigung vor allem in Defense; Management bestätigt 2026‑Ziele, mahnt aber Lieferketten- und Luftverkehrsrisiken an.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Aufträge: €4,7 Mrd. (+27% organisch; sieben Großaufträge, davon €1,6 Mrd. Gesamtvolumen).
- Umsatz: €5,3 Mrd. (+9,7% organisch; Währungseinfluss: -2,5 Prozentpunkte auf reported Wachstum).
- Defense: Umsatz €3,0 Mrd. (+14,3% organisch); Order Intake im Segment +75% organisch.
- Book-to-bill: Erwartung >1 (Managementsignal für anhaltende Nachfrage).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Produktinnovation: Vorstellung AI‑gestützter Angebote (SkyDefender, Expeditionary PathMaster) zur Multidomain‑Luftverteidigung und Mienenabwehr.
- Verteidigungsfokus: Starke kommerzielle Dynamik in Air Surveillance, Air Defense und Mine Hunting; Nachfrage getrieben durch geopolitische Ereignisse.
- Kapazitätsaufbau: Produktionshochlauf und höhere Investitionen (CAPEX‑Ziel 2026 ≈ €840 Mio.) trotz Lieferketten‑Constraints (PCBs, mechanische Teile, Energetika).
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- 2026‑Ziele: Organisches Umsatzwachstum 6–7% (≈€23,3–23,6 Mrd.), bereinigte EBIT‑Marge 12,6–12,8%; Book‑to‑bill >1 bestätigt.
- Segmentziele: Defense weiterhin auf hohem Niveau, Management bestätigt «high single‑digit» Wachstumserwartung für Defense 2026.
- Risiken: Lieferkette, mögliche Nachfrageseite in Avionics/Aftermarket wegen gestörter Luftfahrt; Mid‑Year‑Update geplant (H1‑Report Mitte Juli).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Defence‑Nachhaltigkeit: Nachfrage aus Mittlerem Osten (UORs) wird positiv gesehen, Umsatzrealisierung jedoch zeitlich unsicher.
- Kapazitäten & Supply‑Chain: Ausbau an vielen Standorten; Engpässe bei PCBs, mechanischen Teilen und Energetika begrenzen kurzfristig Ramp‑up.
- Avionics & Aftermarket: Sorgen über Jet‑Fuel‑Effekte auf Flugverkehr; mögliche Wirkung ab Q2/Q3, noch nicht in Q1 sichtbar.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Q1 bestätigt starke operative Dynamik, vor allem in Defense; bestätigte Jahresziele und erhöhte CAPEX stützen Wachstumsszenario. Kurzfristig gilt es Lieferkettenrisiken und die Entwicklung des Flugverkehrs zu beobachten—ein H1‑Update (Mitte Juli) könnte die Sicht auf 2026 schärfen.
Thales — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to today's Thales 2025 Full Year Results Conference Call. The presentation will be held by Patrice Caine, Thales' Chairman and CEO; and Pascal Bouchiat, Thales' CFO.
[Operator Instructions] I must advise you that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Louis Igonet, VP, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, everyone. Welcome, and thank you for joining us for the presentation of Thales' 2025 Full Year Results. I'm Louis Igonet, I recently joined Thales as Head of IR. I'm excited to be with you today. With me today are Patrice Caine, Chairman and CEO; and Pascal Bouchiat, CFO.
The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. As usual, this presentation is audio webcasted live on our website at thalesgroup.com, where the slides and press release are also available for download. A replay will be available soon after the end of the event.
Please also note that this presentation contains forward-looking statements based upon what management of the company believes are reasonable assumptions. These statements are not guarantees of future performance.
With that, I'd like to turn over the call to Patrice Caine.
Good morning, everyone. So I'm now on Slide #2. So let's start by sharing some highlights for 2025 which was another very strong year for Thales. First, on commercial performance. We delivered another year of strong order intake, equaling the record level reached in 2024, thanks to our strategic positioning in high-growth markets.
Our sales growth accelerated, surpassing our guidance. We achieved a robust improvement in profitability compared to 2024. And most notably, our free operating cash flow reached a record high level, reinforcing our financial strength and ability to fund future growth. Hence, we achieved or exceeded all our 2025 financial targets.
On the strategic front, we also made major progress in positioning Thales for the future, thus delivering on our strategic road map. Typically, we further increased our production capacity to capture rising defense spending and support our customers' rapid ramp-up, ensuring we meet demand without compromising quality or on-time delivery, which are our clients' key priorities.
We also continued to strengthen our R&D leadership with new breakthroughs in 2025 that keep us at the cutting edge of technology from AI with cortAIx to quantum and even nuclear fusion with our GenF project. And we took a major step in space by signing an MoU with Airbus and Leonardo to create a leading European space player, a move that will reshape the industry and secure Europe's strategic autonomy in this critical domain.
So moving to Slide #3. To illustrate our ramp-up and successful positioning in the European rearmament dynamic, I'd like to mention our groundbreaking success with SAMP/T NG, a strategic milestone that reshapes the air defense landscape.
The SAMP/T NG produced in partnership with MBDA through Eurosam is the world's most advanced air defense system, which offers long-range air defense with a unique detection and tracking capability against all current and future threats, aircraft, helicopters, UAVs, cruise and ballistic or hypervelocity missiles.
It definitely sets a new standard in air defense with 360-degree and 90-degree coverage, meaning it can intercept threats anywhere in the sky, extensive interoperability with NATO systems, ensuring a seamless integration with allied forces, high firepower with low manpower requirements, optimizing operational efficiency, encamping and decamping, and 24/7 operations.
So with SAMP/T NG, we have disrupted a long-standing de facto monopoly. Denmark's decision to select SAMP/T NG over their legacy system is a clear validation of our technology, performance and value proposal, proving that European sovereignty in air defense is now a tangible reality. And this is only the beginning with SAMP/T NG being a high-value, a large-scale system we expect many more export successes.
Moving to Slide 4. Now to discuss what truly differentiates Thales, our innovation and technological leadership, I would like to focus on AI, where we are leading the transformation. Our AI leadership is built on scale and expertise with 800 AI experts and 100 PhD students.
We are also expanding cortAIx globally with 5 country hubs across the globe, 200 patents covering the full spectrum of AI technologies, securing our intellectual property and competitive edge. Our cortAIx accelerator is now fully deployed across all Thales divisions, embedding AI into 100-plus products with 250-plus use cases deployed or in development.
Another of our strengths lies in our strategic partnership. We are joining forces with industry leaders to codevelop solutions or use cases. With Dassault Aviation, for instance, we are integrating cortAIx into next-gen aviation systems, enhancing functions for manned or unmanned aircraft for observation, situation analysis, decision-making, planning and control during military operations.
With Naval Group, we aim to accelerate the development of trusted AI solutions applied to critical systems in several key areas, collaborative combat, decision support systems, electronic warfare, training and simulation, logistics and support, just to mention a few. Then to give you concrete examples of how we are turning AI and innovation into customer value.
Number one, our TALIOS reconnaissance and targeting pods capabilities are now unmatched. Boosted by cortAIx AI, it provides AI-assisted targeting, passive detection and enhanced vision to overcome stealth threats, electronic warfare and poor visibility. It maximizes mission efficiency, ensuring safety and maintaining superiority across all domains for the end users.
The second example is in the maritime domain, our autonomous mine countermeasures with first delivered in 2025 to the French Navy as AI augmented detection, classification and identification capabilities.
I am now on Slide 5. Moving on to our strategic ambitions in space, an area where Thales is positioning itself at the heart of Europe's sovereign capabilities. We have taken a major step forward by signing a Memorandum of Understanding with Airbus and Leonardo to create a leading European space player.
This partnership will combine our complementary strengths to build a global scale champion for Europe. Our target is to launch operations in 2027, subject, of course, to regulatory approvals and closing conditions.
And this initiative holds significant value creation potential for all stakeholders, for customers, for Europe, for investors. For customers, it means end-to-end space solution from secure connectivity to earth observation and exploration. For Europe, it ensures strategic autonomy in a critical domain. And for investors, it opens new avenues for growth in one of the fastest evolving high-tech sectors.
Let's now move to Slide 6 to look at our financial performance with a few charts. As previously said, we have enjoyed strong commercial momentum in 2025, reaching EUR 25.3 billion for the second year in a row.
The book-to-bill ratio is maintained significantly above 1, reaching 1.14. Sales recorded a sharp 8.8% organic growth, reaching a record high EUR 22.1 billion. Adjusted EBIT rose by more than 13% on a reported basis, while EBIT margin improved to 12.4%.
Adjusted net income, group share, grew by 5.5%, crossing the EUR 2 billion mark. And a very strong generation of free operating cash flow from continued activities, which increased by 27%, reaching EUR 2.6 billion, notably supported by the solid momentum in our order intake.
And the last chart, the dividend. This new year of strong financial performance is leading our Board of Directors to propose at the next AGM in May, a 5.5% increase to EUR 3.90 per share. It demonstrates Thales' confidence and commitment to regular shareholder returns.
Turning now to Slide 7, looking at our extra financial performance in 2025. I indeed wanted to come back on the continuous progress we've made in terms of corporate social responsibility.
First pillar, society. The Thales Climate Passport training deployed in 2024 raises employees awareness to climate change and its impact on society. The 2025 campaign was a success with over 94.6% of managers who completed the training, way above the 85% target. We are clearly ahead of plan on this pillar.
Second pillar regarding our strategy for climate change. Our CO2 emissions from Scope 1 and 2 decreased by 75.2% in 2024 and Scope 3 emissions decreased by 15.4% compared to 2018. The group has thus achieved its 2030 targets ahead of schedule for the third consecutive year. The absolute carbon footprint reduction targets remain relevant for 2023 in light of the group's growth prospects.
Finally, our third pillar named people aims at strengthening gender diversity where at the end of 2025, we are in line with our 2030 trajectory. First, the percentage of women in senior management position reached 21.8%. And this performance is in line with the group's trajectory to reach the set goal of 25% by 2030.
Second, the percentage of management committees with at least 4 women reached 69.2% in 2025 compared to 64.1% at the end of 2024. For 2030, we have set an ambitious target to have 85% of management committees with at least 4 women.
After this introduction, I now hand over to Pascal, who will comment our financial results in greater detail.
Thank you, Patrice, and good morning to everyone. I'm now on Slide 9. So starting with order intake. As Patrice mentioned, 2025 was again a strong year in terms of commercial momentum as order intake was maintained at a record level, namely EUR 25.3 billion. This reflects the quality of Thales' diversified product and solutions portfolio fit for our clients' purposes.
The book-to-bill ratio stood at 1.14, meeting our expectations for the year and even 1.24 for Defence segment. This bodes well for future revenue generation. This robust performance was driven by all type of orders with a notable strong momentum for orders below EUR 100 million.
Looking at large orders. 28 orders with a unit value over EUR 100 million were booked in 2025, of which half in the sole fourth quarter. 20 large orders were booked in Defence with several flagship contracts notably in Air Defence. I can, in particular, mention the LMM, Lightweight Multirole Missile contract with the U.K. MOD or a major land surveillance contract with the German MOD.
2025 saw also a good momentum in Space with large -- with 5 large contracts booked, of which 1 in OEN and 4 in telco, including the IRIS2 initial phase contract. Avionics booked 3 large contracts, of which a flagship contract for IFE with a major U.S. airline in Q4 2025. Overall, a strong performance in 2025 for order intake, driven by continued high demand from our clients in all our businesses.
Now moving on to sales on Slide 10. Sales in 2025 reached EUR 22.1 billion, translating into an organic growth of 8.8%, significantly above the top of our guidance range, which was upgraded in July. This robust performance was notably driven by Defence activities, which recorded double-digit organic growth again this year.
Aerospace also contributed significantly with stronger organic growth fueled by both Avionics and Space activities. Cyber & Digital sales were slightly down organically, in line with latest expectations. I will comment further the performance in the following slides.
From a geographical perspective, sales organic growth was again well balanced between emerging and mature markets. It's worth noting that all our emerging markets, Asia, Middle East and Rest of World, recorded double-digit growth.
Reported growth was negatively impacted by material currency impacts this year as the euro strengthened against most currencies in 2025, against the U.S. dollar, as we are all aware of, but also against other currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars.
Overall, currency led to a 1.5 percentage points headwinds on 2025 sales reported growth. Scope impact was positive and resulted mainly from Cobham Aerospace Communications acquisition in April 2024. Taking into account these elements, 2025 sales recorded a solid 7.6% reported growth year-on-year.
Let's now have a look at adjusted EBIT. I am on Slide 11. So as you can see, adjusted EBIT increased sharply in 2025 and reached EUR 2.7 billion. This increase mainly was driven by the significant progression of our gross margin, up by EUR 391 million (sic) [ EUR 383 million ]. This was mostly the result of the sales volume progression in Defence and Aerospace.
Looking at indirect costs. R&D expenses continue to increase in volume and represented 6% of sales in 2025, in line with our expectations. Marketing and sales expenses were broadly stable organically, reflecting Thales' ability to optimize its indirect cost in line with the evolution of the business. This was notably the case in Cyber & Digital in 2025.
G&A grew organically at half the pace of revenue, which is also satisfactory. Equity affiliates contributed positively for EUR 61 million to adjusted EBIT growth in 2025. This includes, in particular, a stable contribution from Naval Group, which includes the fiscal surcharge in France.
It also includes positive contributions from various JVs, notably from our Defence JVs. It also reflects a one-off positive effect linked to the Thales JV, which is accounted for in our Digital Identity business.
A word on mechanical effects. As for sales, negative currency impact at minus EUR 37 million outweighed scope positive impact at EUR 24 million.
Moving on now to performance for you by segments, starting with Aerospace on Slide 12. Orders in the Aerospace segment amounted to EUR 6.1 billion, slightly down versus last year on the back of high comparison basis.
Underlying momentum in both Avionics and Space remain solid. In Avionics, this solid momentum extended into most activities. In Space, 5 orders with unit value above EUR 100 million were booked, including several geostationary communications satellites and the initial phase contract for IRIS2. Those wins enhance visibility for the coming years.
Sales reached EUR 5.9 billion in 2025, recording a solid 8.7% organic sales growth. Both Avionics and Space contributed to this performance. Avionics indeed saw double-digit growth year-on-year, driven by OEN activities.
Both flight avionics OE and aftermarket enjoyed strong dynamic, supported by continued ramp-up in aircraft production and also a solid air traffic momentum. Both civil and military domains were supportive. In Space, sales were up as well in 2025, mostly driven by the OEM business.
Looking at profitability. Adjusted EBIT stood at EUR 560 million in 2025, an outstanding 39% organic increase, which led margin to reach 9.5%. Avionics posted a solid increase in its profitability driven by stronger aftermarket and further contribution from Cobham AeroComms. Space recovered even better than announced a year ago, posting a positive EBIT in 2025.
Now commenting Defence on Slide 13. Order intake in Defence amounted to EUR 15.1 billion in 2025, setting this year, again, a new record high. The book-to-bill ratio stood significantly above 1. It's now the seventh year in a row that Defence sees its book-to-bill ratio stands above 1.2. With a backlog of EUR 42 billion, the level of visibility in this activity keeps being higher at 3.4 years of sales.
Thales booked 20 orders with a unit value above [Audio Gap] air defense, effectors, airborne solutions or in the naval domain. We also believe that stronger European collaboration, for example, through EU MFF mechanism such as Space [Audio Gap] EUR 12.2 billion, up 12 [Audio Gap] firmly supported by further production and deliveries ramp up across the portfolio. Surface radars and effectors are, for instance, areas where efforts have been paying off in 2025.
Overall, organic growth has outpaced our expectations in 2025. And I want to highlight the tight execution throughout the year that led to this excellent performance. A word finally on adjusted EBIT [Audio Gap] EBIT in 2025 versus 2024.
Now moving on to Cyber & Digital on Slide 14. Sales in the Cyber & Digital segment were broadly flat organically in 2025, reflecting a mixed performance. In reported figures, it's worth noting that the FX impact was significantly negative and led to a 3.4 points headwind on sales growth.
Starting with Cyber as a whole, which was down 3.8% organically over the whole year. Cyber Products, which represented a bit more than 80% of the Cyber business in 2025, recorded a low single-digit organic decrease last year. As you know, until Q3, we have been impacted by the merger of Thales and Imperva sales forces, which notably led to a higher staff turnover and weighed on the performance.
Employee turnover is now back at a benchmark level. In Q4, Cyber Products was back to growth, which is positive, and paves the way for further growth in 2026. Market momentum keeps being supportive and Imperva sales force integration being now over, we should progressively recover sales growth profile.
Cyber Services sales were down double digit organically year-on-year as it kept being impacted by soft market in Australia. The premiumization strategy Thales has adopted for this business showed encouraging signs in related geographies as we are focusing on selective, profitable segments.
Digital Identity sales were up slightly, 1% in organic terms. Digital Solutions kept driving growth, notably in secure connectivity solutions and payment services. However, volumes on payment cards remained low in 2025. And at this stage, we don't expect the market to improve materially in 2026.
Having a look at profitability. Adjusted EBIT margin resisted in the context of lower revenues in 2025 and stood at 13.7%. This is mainly the result of tight cost management in the Cyber business, which saw an increase in margin in 2025 as well as a positive impact from one-off elements in the digital business we already mentioned in July 2025.
Turning now to Slide 15 and looking at below adjusted EBIT items. So the line cost of net financial debts and other financial results was moderately up in 2025 as expected. Net financial interest was significantly down in 2025 and stood at minus EUR 116 million in 2025 versus EUR 166 million in 2024, driven by the ongoing deleveraging following the acquisition of Cobham AeroComms.
Other financial results amounted at minus EUR 28 million versus plus EUR 35 million in 2024. This evolution is due to the non-recurrence in 2025 of positive one-offs recorded in 2024. The finance cost on pensions and other employee benefits were slightly up in 2025 to minus EUR 56 million.
Moving on to income tax. At minus EUR 561 million, the amount of income tax integrates EUR 75 million of tax surcharge in France in 2025. This led the effective tax rate to reach 24.1% in 2025. But it's worth measuring it is broadly stable excluding the surcharge.
The 2026 French budget includes a recurrence of this tax surcharge in 2026. The expected impact for Thales in 2026 P&L should amount to around EUR 90 million, a EUR 50 million increase versus 2025.
In addition, the impact on our share in Naval Group's net income should be broadly stable at minus EUR 8 million. Minorities have significantly decreased year-on-year to EUR 26 million. This is mainly driven by the reduced net losses incurred by tax.
All in all, this led to an adjusted net income, group share, at EUR 2 billion, an increase of almost 6%. The adjusted EPS stood at EUR 9.76 in 2025. Excluding the tax surcharge in France, adjusted net income group share would have been up by more than 9%.
Having a look at the bridge from adjusted EBIT to free operating cash flow, I'm now on Slide 16. So in 2025, on Slide 16, we see D&A, depreciation and amortizations broadly stable, while net operating investments were significantly up at minus EUR 746 million, in line with our guidance of 3% to 3.5% of sales. This reflects the group's strategy to keep investing for future growth, for example, with additional industry capacities as already commented.
Overall, the balance of D&A and net operating investments amounted to negative minus EUR 260 million. Change in working capital requirements was a strong tailwind in 2025. I will comment further in the next slide. All in all, 2025 is again an impressive year in terms of cash generation.
Free operating cash flow amounted to almost EUR 2.6 billion in 2025. This means a conversion from adjusted net income to free operating cash flow of 128%, a very strong performance.
Let's now have a look on what drove this impressive performance. I'm now on Slide 17. Firstly, and we've discussed it already, 2025 was once again a year of strong momentum for order intake. Major orders were booked while orders with a unit value below EUR 100 million were solid as well.
Secondly, the payment profile from our customers is very satisfactory. This includes down payment, but also highlights Thales' tight management of contract structure. Lastly, the emphasis that we keep putting internally on stocks optimizations over the last few quarters and year showed a positive outcome in 2025.
All in all, conversion ratio has outpaced expectations for the year at 128%. For 2026, we anticipate a cash conversion ratio between 95% and 100%. This give us confidence to reach the high end of the guidance we gave at our 2024 Capital Market Day, which is an average conversion ratio of between 95% to 105% over 2024-2028.
Now a word on net debt evolutions, moving on to Slide 18. Net debt saw significant reduction in 2025, and Thales' financial position is particularly strong as of end 2025. This was primarily driven by the strong free operating cash flow generation I just detailed. The impact from acquisition and disposal amounted to a negative EUR 69 million, which corresponds mainly to final price adjustments related to the sales of Thales transport business to Hitachi Rail finalized in May 2024.
The dividend cash out amounted to EUR 781 million in 2025, corresponding to a payout ratio of 40% and reflecting the increase in adjusted net income. All in all, net debt stood at EUR 1.6 billion as of the end of December 2025.
Finally, on Slide 19, a word on dividend. As I just described, 2025 was again a year of robust financial performance and value creation. This leads our Board to propose to the next AGM a dividend of EUR 3.90, up 5.5% versus 2024. This is in line with the payout ratio at 40% and reflects the increase in adjusted EPS.
A quick look at the chart on the right-hand side shows the steady growth of adjusted EPS over the last few years, reflecting Thales' ability to consistently deliver sustainable and profitable growth over the years.
This marks the end of this financial review. I'm now turning over the call to Patrice, who will address our strategic priorities and guidance.
Thank you, Pascal. So now turning to our strategy and outlook for 2026. So let's move to Slide 21. And before talking about our 2026 strategic priorities, I'd like to briefly give you the big picture on the tailwinds supporting our different businesses and the key differentiators that Thales can leverage to keep delivering strong and profitable growth.
Thales is a unique business in the sense that we are only positioned on markets which benefit from positive long-term momentum supported by proven resilience and sustainable macro trends.
First, if we start with Defence, our activities are supported by a strong need for more security, more protection in the context of geopolitical instability.
This is shown by the global increase in defense spending with a notable concentration in Europe, where it is projected to grow high single digits annually until 2035 in Europe. And also by the need for our clients for speed as they seek both high-performance products and solutions as well as good enough products that are quickly available.
The competition is fiercer than ever, but we have significant competitive advantages. Number one, our deep and diverse portfolio with a unique and historic ability to fill products with the latest technologies, our AI augmented radars, for instance.
Number two, our strong customer intimacy and historic knowledge of our clients' concept of operations or CONOPS. And number three, Thales is the strategic partner of choice at the heart of European rearmament. Our position is unmatched because we are deeply embedded in Europe's defense ecosystem.
Moving to Avionics. Well, in Avionics, we have a great visibility, thanks to sustained and powerful demand for travel and mobility. That shows no sign of slowing, resulting in continued growth in global air traffic, as IATA, the International Air Transport Association predicts passenger numbers to double in 20-year forecasts. And at the same time, a global renewal of commercial fleets, which increases demand for our equipment from OEMs.
And of course, we have strong differentiators, thanks to our commitment to developing a more sustainable and connected avionics, bringing skills and technologies to build the future of avionics, for instance, through predictive maintenance and new generation of flight management systems.
Space now, while demand in the institutional market is improving with a growing number of opportunities, thanks to the rise in government investments, typically growing ESA budget and EU MFF and the need for large-scale projects like IRIS2 or the space early warning initiative.
We have won very important contracts and delivered truly emblematic projects, which are a testament to the relevance of our positioning and the quality of our products in exploration in science with the Lunar Descent Element for the Argonaut mission in the 2030.
Regarding observation, the long-awaited entry into force of the all-in-one contract with Indonesia and the first slice of the Leonardo constellation. On the telecom side as well, where we recorded a good level of orders and the launch of the initial phase of IRIS2 will allow us to start the technological development of the payload.
And lastly, in Cyber & Digital. Well, the omnipresence of connected devices and the digitalization of our daily lives with the consequential need to protect our data, our applications, our identities from cyber attacks continues to fuel our activities.
We are a world-class player in Cyber with best-in-class products across application security, data security, identity and access management and also premium cyber services. And the services we provide to accompany all industries in their move to cloud are ideally positioned in the competitive landscape.
So moving now to Slide 22. To seize all the opportunities created by this environment and to address the many challenges facing Thales, I have identified 4 key priorities for 2026. The first one being our ability to capture profitable growth.
To seize this growth, we will continue to ramp up our capacity which means continuing to scale up production across both existing and new facilities with a clear focus, focusing on high-end demand products such as radars, munitions and optronic cameras, systems like our SAMP/T NG, Rafale equipment, counter-UAS, just to mention a few. And at the same time, ensuring we have the right talent. Hence, we plan to recruit more than 9,000 employees worldwide in 2026.
Secondly, we'll put a heavy focus on competitiveness through operational excellence, i.e., continuously improving internal processes to continue to deliver on time at cost and quality, but also AI-driven productivity, leveraging artificial intelligence to transform how we operate from AI optimized logistics to so-called software companion, accelerating development cycles and reducing time to market.
Lastly, to fully capture the current momentum, we will continue addressing our customers' core expectation, proximity, intelligence. Proximity, our customers expect alignment with their local realities and sovereign requirements, typically leveraging our ability.
We will further strengthen customer intimacy by localizing critical parts of the value chain where it creates value, as we demonstrated, for instance, with the recent radar factory opened in the UAE.
Intelligence as well, we will continue to enhance the value we deliver by embedding AI across our entire product portfolio, building on our track record of combat-proven AI-enabled systems already deployed operationally. We are scaling AI capabilities across all our offerings.
Another key area of focus in 2026 will be to restore growth in our cyber business. The integration of Imperva is fully done, as said by Pascal. So we are now ready to go back on the offensive.
First, by reaping the benefits on the sales team reorganization which is now fully up and running to gain traction and go after significant opportunities across all our segments, IAM, software monetization, that affect application security and the likes.
And second, by continuing to deliver on commercial synergies by offering to our clients solutions combining the best of Imperva and the best of Thales across all our activities, for instance, via cross-selling.
Lastly, our teams are working on the next generation of cyber products. These developments will be essential to ensure that we outperform the competition. So in a nutshell, we have everything in place to position ourselves for growth on these markets.
Regarding the Bromo Project, well, if everything goes as planned, this joint venture will be operational within 2 years. So during this time, we are focused on securing support from all stakeholders. This includes the European Commission, but also many key states and their regulatory bodies.
And above all, in the meantime, we remain focused on delivering our road map and maintain a solid pace of recovery. This is essential, as by definition, there is still a lot of work to do before the merger is authorized, if it is authorized.
So it is critical that we continue doing business to the best of our ability on a stand-alone basis. And as such, the recovery plan we have been implementing is now bearing fruit as you have seen in 2025.
But beyond that, we agree that this project has a strong rationale, securing Europe's future in space and allowing to accelerate innovation through joint R&D and cutting-edge space missions. And hence, competitiveness against global players, lead sovereign and military space programs for European nations and strengthen the European space ecosystem, creating opportunities for suppliers and employees alike.
Last but not least, regarding Avionics. Our focus for 2026 will be to expand that business above and beyond. Today, we benefit from a world-class portfolio, supporting our customers in making aviation greener, more digital and more connected. Our ambition is to extend our leadership across all aircraft manufacturers.
As you know, the most powerful structural trend in the market in both civil and defense markets is the renewal of most aircraft platforms around the 2030s and we are already actively preparing for this significant opportunity. To that end, in 2026, we are continuing to invest heavily in technologies, in industrial capacities -- capabilities.
In technology, our 9 product lines, including flight controls, high-performance IMA, Integrated Modular Avionics, help displays, navigation heads are already competitive and are being further enhanced to address the next generation of platform requirements.
In industrial capabilities as well, while we continue upgrading our industrial sites to ensure best-in-class performance and competitiveness. So thanks to the actions already taken and the investments underway, we are extremely well positioned for the upcoming competitions. We are excited to deliver the most advanced, reliable and industrially competitive avionics solutions.
So now I'm on Slide 23. Well, all these priorities will bring Thales to pursue ambitious financial targets in 2026. First, a book-to-bill ratio above 1. Second, a dynamic organic sales growth between 6% to 7%, which should correspond to sales ranging from EUR 23.3 billion to EUR 23.6 billion, including FX impact.
Number three, 12.6% to 12.8% adjusted EBIT margin, which puts us well on track to deliver our 2028 target. And number four, free operating cash flow conversion ratio still high, expected between 95% and 100%. This is clearly a key strength of our model.
So overall, we are well on track to deliver the various commitments we made back at our 2024 CMD where we provided some outlook by 2028. We are not even halfway through the 2024-2028 period. But I can already tell you that we feel very confident in our ability to reach the high end of our organic sales guidance given what I've just described in terms of business opportunities.
In terms of operating margin, we are clearly on track to deliver 13% to 14% by 2028. And as far as free operating cash flow generation is concerned, there again, we are confident we will be in a position to reach the high end of our guided range.
Many thanks again for your attention, and we will now be pleased with Pascal to take all your questions.
[Operator Instructions] And the questions come from the line of Chloe Lemarie from Jefferies.
2. Question Answer
Could I start with the guidance and digging into the divisional growth expectation, please? So for 2026, what do you factor in, in terms of organic growth for Defence, Aerospace and Cyber & Digital? And in Cyber, what do you call a vigorous market? And how do you think Thales will perform compared to that market growth, please?
Okay. So first, I mean, giving you a bit of insight on our segment expected growth for 2026. So in total, as you -- as we mentioned, the guidance of organic growth between 6% and 7% at group level for 2026 over 2025.
So going through our divisions, starting with Defence. So Defence at this point, high single digit. Overall, that was by the way what was our guidance for 2025. You have seen that we went above this level ultimately. Now as we move into 2026, we believe that high single digit is a reasonable guidance for Defence overall and consistent with the 6% to 7% overall for Thales Group.
Overall, that was, by the way, what was our guidance for 2025. You have seen that they weren't above this level ultimately. Now as we move into 2026, we believe that high single digit is a reasonable guidance for Defense overall and consistent with the 6% to 7% overall for Thales Group. Second, on Aerospace. So aerospace, I mean, growing, by the way, both from avionics and also from our space business.
So aerospace overall, what we see probably mid-single digit to mid-single digit plus with avionics mid-single digit. We mentioned as we presented 2025 growth that avionics in 2025 was more low double digit. So we are at this point, probably a bit more conservative on avionics for 2026. And today, as we see mid-single digit, this being based on also, I mean, the announcement from Airbus in terms of OEM, but also, I mean, as we see, I mean, the air traffic developing in 2026.
Space, we are positive on the back of, I mean, the 2025 order intake and as we see 2026 overall. So -- and lastly, I mean, CDI overall mid-single digit with, of course, I mean, cyber above this level and digital lower than this level. So as you know, I mean, one of our key priorities that Patrice mentioned is to get cyber back on growth in a market which is today pretty positive, as we said.
So at this point, of course, and we mentioned that Q4 for cyber product was getting back to growth, which is not the case for the cyber services that was down in Q4. At this point, of course, I mean, we need to be a bit cautious, but the market is there in terms of demand. Now it's up to us I mean, to get back to growth, in particular, in the cyber product, which is absolutely essential for us in terms of value creation. More to come as we move forward in 2026. But overall, yes, I mean, one key priority for us is to recover and regrowth.
[Operator Instructions] We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Benjamin Heelan from Bank of America.
I hope you both well. I had a question around AI and the implications around cyber. Obviously, there's been a lot of pressure on software companies over the past couple of months around the threats of Agentic AI. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing in the cyber market. Do you see it as a threat? Do you see it as an opportunity? How can we, on the outside, think about the impact of Agentic AI on cyber?
And then the second question was, I guess, a bit of a follow-on from that. Can you talk a little bit about given what is going on from a technology perspective with AI, how is your M&A strategy evolving to encompass that? Is it a time to accelerate doing deals in cyber or moving into different areas? Is it a time to slow down and see how things progress? Is there any update that you can provide us from that?
So I will take this one, Ben, and thanks for your question. Yes, indeed, there has been recently a lot of debates about AI and in particular, Agentic AI and how will it or not, by the way, disturb the software market. Well, as far as the cyber market is concerned, our market, first, it's a mix of, I would say, hardware product and software solution. And typically for hardware, there is no real, I would say, worries to have in mind.
For our software solution, I do think this is a clear opportunity to have even more, I would say, efficient solutions to fight against AI --to fight against cyber attacks, sorry. So this is for me a great opportunity. And in particular, we are, I would say, on the verge of, I would say, launching new solutions, leveraging Agentic AI to serve some of our products -- cyber products. That's a key plus for us. Now M&A, if I move to M&A -- well no change, if I may, in our global, I would say, approach or mindset in terms of capital allocation in general and M&A in particular.
We will be always, I would say, very pragmatic and financially disciplined. We are looking at every, I would say, verticals of Thales, defense, aeronautics or cyber and digital, probably putting a little bit space aside because we have already a big M&A, I would say, initiative to conclude with the BROMO project. But clearly, I do not exclude any segment or definition to benefit from an M&A, I would say, opportunity. So clearly, I would say we'll see if something will make sense in the next future. But I would say no change versus what we've already discussed for several years in a row.
The next questions come from the line of Olivier Brochet from Rothschild & Co. Redburn.
Two questions then. First of all, on cyber, you're positioning yourself for growth. Does it mean some pricing efforts that needs to be done there? And what impact do you see for the margin in cyber and digital in 2026. Consensus is at 15.1%. Is that something you think is reasonable? And second question is in your revenues in 2025, how much was done with Ukraine direct and indirect, please?
Maybe I will start and let Patrice to complete maybe. Margin. So I mean, first, let me start with this cyber product, which, as you understand, represent 80% of our cyber business. And this is where, I mean, clearly, our challenge to get back to growth and of course, not at the expense of prices. So basically, I mean, this is -- I mean [Audio Gap]
And for us, this represents when I talk about the Rule of 30, it should represent a level of EBIT margin of around 20% and overall a level of growth of 10%. This is basically what we have in mind in terms of midterm objective for this business. And of course, as we enter 2026, our view is not to give up on prices just to get back to growth. This is absolutely not what we are willing to do first point.
Second point on Ukraine and our level of revenue directed to Ukraine. Giving you just 3 figures. I mean 2024, overall, our revenue directed to Ukraine was around EUR 200 million. It went up pretty strongly in 2025 with overall in 2025, a level of revenue of around EUR 450 million. All of that to be compared to a defense level of revenue for Thales at EUR 12 billion.
So if you look at 2025, EUR 450 million out of EUR 12 billion, it's something like 3.5%, 3.6% of our revenue directed to Ukraine. Now we believe that revenue to Ukraine will keep growing in 2026. And today, our view in 2026 is a level of revenue to Ukraine that would be close to EUR 600 million. So it's a growth driver. Now when you look at overall what it represents against our global defense exposure, something like 3.5% of the Defense segment's revenue, which is still pretty limited.
That's very helpful. Sorry, I didn't catch if you commented on the consensus in cyber for '26.
The consensus -- no, I'm not...
It's 15.1%...
2026. Overall, I mean, what I mentioned is overall for cyber and digital level of growth mid-single digit. So if you start from our level of revenue in 2025 and if you add up 5% [Technical Difficulty], for the 2026 level of revenue. So overall, starting from 2025 level [Technical Difficulty] CDI -- so if you add the price on top of that, this is how you should get to 2026 expected revenue for CDI.
Sure. No, I was thinking of the margin consensus at 15%.
No. So overall, I mean, it's above what we have in mind. It's above what we have in mind. If I start with 2025, we mentioned a level of margin for CDI at 13.7%. But we said that we had in this level of margin, I mean, a few positive one-offs.
We believe that the 2025 recurring level of margin is more in line with 13% for 2025, putting aside those one-offs -- by the way, I mean, you need to understand that in 2025, CDI had also to face with 2 headwinds, one being, I mean, the drop in the U.S. dollars plus implementation of the U.S. tariff.
So all of that representing probably something like 1 percentage points of headwinds. And this leads to a recurring level of margin in 2025 at 13%. And I mean, from that, this is what we could expect for 2026. So maybe slightly above this level, but this is, I mean, the overall ballpark that we could expect for CDI EBIT margin in 2026.
But I think, Olivier, your question was related to cyber, not CDI as a whole. You mentioned the 15.1% consensus for 2026 for cyber, which corresponds to what we see globally for the cyber segment of CDI for 2026. So...
Yes, 2026, I mean, I'm sorry for that, but I mean the connection is not great. So if your question was about cyber EBIT margin for 2026. So overall, a 15.5% EBIT margin for 2026 is what we have in mind.
We are now going to proceed with our next question -- and the questions come from the line of Alessandro Pozzi from Mediobanca Capital.
The first one is on free cash flow conversion. I was wondering if you can perhaps share your assumptions around working capital and CapEx. I think working capital was a key contributing factor in 2025. And given the order intake, perhaps maybe we should assume something similar for '26. And CapEx I think you mentioned that -- of course, you have the ramp-up going on, you increased the production of radars and you mentioned that potential CapEx is going to go up again in 2026.
And if you can quantify that as well? And second question on capital allocation, which is a nice segue from the first question is, your net debt is substantially down, and we know that your priority is to delever the company. But I think by 2026, probably that target will be accomplished and or you're going to be very close. And I was wondering whether we should think about a different capital allocation, maybe more buybacks as well. So any thoughts on that will be appreciated.
Okay. Thank you very much -- thank you very much, Alessandro. So we can -- by the way, we can hear you loud and clear, which was not the case before, much better. So let's start with, I mean, cash flow generation for 2026. I mentioned that, I mean, conversion ratio should be 95%. And this takes into account a few assumptions that you want me to give you more insight.
So first, in terms of CapEx, it's true that we'll keep seeing our CapEx moving up in 2026. Overall, I mean, if you look at 2025, CapEx were at around EUR 750 million. 2026, it should be higher and probably, in my view, EUR 820 million to EUR 850 million CapEx for 2026, pretty much in line with the overall CapEx to revenue ratio around 3.5%, which was the high end of our guidance that we shared with you at our Capital Market Day in November 2024.
So first point. And second point, in terms of working capital, it's true that 2025, I mean, change in working capital was a clear tailwind and reflecting, I mean, in particular, down payments and large down payments in particular, defense export contracts. 2026 at this point, we believe that the guidance that I mentioned about conversion ratio is more based on a flattish level of working capital. So this is, I mean, what we have in mind.
Of course, it will depend at the end of the day of the -- of our order intake and the profile of order intake, in particular, coming from export contract. But at this point, what we shared with you is the level of cash flow generation. So I mean, makes -- to ensure 100% being based on something like a stable level of working capital. So again, with a stable level of working capital, a pretty strong level of cash flow generation again.
With Thales investing also more in terms of CapEx. As I mentioned, I mean, a level of CapEx EUR 820 million, EUR 815 million, it has to be compared to a level of depreciation slightly above EUR 500 million. So basically, we keep investing on all our industrial sites. We keep investing on ISIT. We keep investing in engineering tooling for us, I mean, to benefit from the growth that we see down the road. Maybe capital allocation for Patrice.
Yes, I can -- Alessandro, I can come back on this point in a more global setup. As you know, we've said that for a while now we have all the different levers available in what we call that ToolBox in Thales. Clearly, you've mentioned, number one, deleveraging the company, which is an important stake for us as we do want to keep Thales being an investment-grade company with a strong balance sheet.
Clearly, funding our organic growth through CapEx and R&D, and R&D is super important for us. M&A, we discuss M&A with the same, I would say, philosophy as already discussed, dividends as well. And we said that the 40% payout ratio will be proposed to the AGM giving clear visibility on this front. And last but not least, buyback. So buyback is part of the ToolBox clearly.
Now don't -- always keep in mind that among the different criteria that we look at if and when we have to decide for a buyback is clearly the price of the company, the share price. Is there a gap or not? Do we think there is clearly potential in terms of valuation of the company that is not well understood by the market. And it's true that currently, if we look at the share price of Thales, I cannot say that there is a misunderstanding or a mismatch between the full potential of the company and how the company is currently valued by the market.
So all in all, the ToolBoxes there, we have all the levers in hand, and we do not exclude one among any others per definition.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Christophe Menard from Deutsche Bank.
I had two. The first one on BROMO. Thanks for the update. Is there any extra update on the authorization? Any progress being made on this, quite obviously? You mentioned it needs to be authorized. That's the key element. And the other question on SAMP/T NG , thanks for the update as well.
The contract in Denmark, has it been confirmed -- I mean, there has been announced back in September, but is it confirmed yet? And can you comment -- I mean, you mentioned a few other potential markets. Do you see more interest since the September [ CH ] or the September announcement? And what is the updated potential?
I can start and Pascal will complement, of course, if needed. Well, on BROMO, I would say so far so good. I mean, everything is on track. Number one, the social processes are ongoing. And I would say with constructive discussions with the unions, constructive discussions. They do understand the rationale of this initiative. And I would say the benefits for everybody, the customers, the employees and as well the shareholders of the groups.
Of course, the second work stream, which is important is antitrust authorization. On this front, discussions are ongoing in a positive -- I would say, with a positive, I would say, mindset of everybody. So this is -- I'm not saying that we expect such outcome. But globally speaking, I would say the discussions are constructive on this front as well. That's the two main work streams. There are many others, but probably with less, I would say, importance than those two ones.
So stay tuned. We'll keep you informed, of course. But for the moment, work in progress in a positive sense. On SAMP/T, there is, for me, absolutely no risk not to do this contract in 2026. The Danish customer even passed us some LLI contracts, long lead item contract to, I would say, anticipate the formal and definitive full scope contract that was clearly expected in 2026.
So no surprise on the fact that it was not booked in 2025. Denmark has chosen to go through [indiscernible]. That's why it takes a bit of time. And again, it's just an iterative process. No surprise on this front. So you should or you could consider that it is 99% secure, I would say. Now of course, there are many other prospects in -- typically in Europe, Eastern Europe, in the Middle East as well. By the way, the recent events of this last weekend shows how air defense is important again and again after Ukraine, it's another, I would say, very visible and striking example of how air defense is important.
And of course, it reinforced our conviction that some SAMP/T NG has a lot of potential in the years ahead of us. I don't want to mention any country in particular because they don't like us to disclose discussions. But believe me, the pipe is important in this domain. And in particular, both in terms of, I would say, performance offered by the SAMP/T NG versus its main competitor, which is the Patriot system.
And secondly, an important criteria of decision is lead time. And again, SAMP/T NG is, I would say, available in the short run, clearly, before 2030, 2028, 2029, where the Patriot system, if you want to buy one tomorrow, you will have to wait much longer than the date I said for the SAMP/T NG. So all these criteria or all these elements are positive elements, and that makes SAMP/T NG a good candidate for future big orders in the years to come.
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Aymeric Poulain from Kepler Cheuvreux.
The first question is on cyber again. And just to understand the phasing of the reacceleration, the gradual comments you make in the guidance? And why does it take so long to regain the lost market share of last year? That would be the first question. And secondly, to follow up on Ben's question on AI implication for cyber, but perhaps broadening the question on the whole portfolio. I mean, what do you see in terms of the overall competitive impact of AI on your various businesses?
What are the most important challenges or opportunity? And maybe is there already some figures you can provide in terms of the contribution to sales or the benefit in terms of cost or the size of the investments that you're putting into your AI transformation?
Maybe -- first good morning Aymeric ,thank you very much for your two questions. Maybe I will start on cyber. So in a nutshell, why is it so low? Why it so slow? I mean -- so of course, I mean, I guess it was quite clear that 2025 was below expectations. And we made it clear that, I mean, those difficulties that we faced in 2025 was above what we anticipated beginning of 2025. And it's true that it took us a bit of time, I mean, to put that under control in terms of, I mean, the organization of the sales force, the implementation of the new variable compensation program, getting the right level of training across the workforce.
I mean, developing the new element, the new level of intimacy with customers and our sales force, our sales reps having to get trained to a new portfolio of products. So it seems to be easy from the outside. Now when you drive and you manage a sales force of more than 1,000 sales reps, I can tell you that it's not that easy. So we are, of course, a bit cautious. This is also our trademark globally. And we believe that we should see growth accelerating throughout 2026. Now let's take quarter-by-quarter, I mean, to give you more input on that. But please be assured that we are doing whatever we can, I mean, to accelerate on this cyber product business.
I've tried to explain, but perhaps I was not clear enough during the presentation, how we do leverage AI for a while now in all our different lines of products, be there I would say, sensors. I took the example of the TALIOS pod, but I could have mentioned how do we embed AI in our radars, in our electronic warfare equipment, in our even radio communication equipment, number one.
And number two, how do we leverage AI in the so-called decision and making system, the C2 system, if I take the military acronym. And we have already powered by AI, several, if not many, C2, C3, C4I systems for several customers in the world. So it's not possible to give you a measure of how AI make us even more, I would say, attractive. But that's what I observed with the conversations I have with our customers, starting from world-class products and making them even more, I would say, attractive by enhancing their capability through AI.
This is a clear and straightcut strategy for us. Last but not least, we do as well care about AI on our internal processes. That's another, I would say, aspect of how do we use AI. It's clear that it is a key element of our global and overall competitiveness plan. Now it's one element among many others. So it's, again, not possible to, I would say, decouple this one from all the others and to say, okay, the contribution of this element help us in this amount of -- in this percentage to improve the competitiveness of the group. But definitely, it is a key element that we use or a key enabler that we use to improve the overall competitiveness of Thales.
We are now going to proceed with our next question -- and the questions come from the line of David Perry from JPMorgan.
So two questions. One simple one, one a bit longer. The simple one is the associate line was very strong. If you could just comment on that, that would be helpful. The second one, if I can be a bit provocative. If I -- you delivered a good EBIT number overall for the group, it was better than consensus. But if I compare it to expectations 12 months ago, you're kind of double-digit better on EBIT in Defense and Aerospace and you're about 20% worse in Cyber and Digital.
What is the chance in 12 months' time that you meet your group guidance, which you often do, that it's going to be a lot better in defense or aerospace and worse in cyber, so -- or cyber and digital. If you can just give your level of confidence overall on the individual parts?
David, thank you very much again for your insightful questions. So I mean, the first one, I mean, about equity affiliates. Yes, it's true that, I mean, 2025 was pretty good. Having said that, 2024 -- the 2024 reference base for equity earnings was pretty low. And it's true that we had in 2024, some negative one-off. I think probably a better reference base for equity earnings would be more 2023 than 2024.
And if you compare 2025 against 2023, you will realize that overall, our equity earnings in 2025 are 20% above what we reported 2 years ago. And this is basically, I mean, a normal type of expected contributions and in particular, because it so that our defense JVs are doing pretty well, but also, I mean, fueled by, I mean, also the level of demand across the board. Maybe a last point, it's also true that and I mentioned it, we had on one of our CDI JV, a positive one-off in 2025.
Now the underlying, I mean, message is that overall, across the board, we see, I mean, contributions from JVs keeping moving up. By the way, it could have been even better absent the tax surcharge in France that it never got contributions by EUR 8 million in 2025. So all in all, I mean, a pretty good level of contribution, but reflecting, in particular, defense JVs that are performing pretty well. And I could also mention JVs in the avionics business that are doing also pretty well.
Now your second question about what is going to happen in a year's time when we meet again, how will -- no, I mean maybe I can start, Patrice, unless you want to. No, of course, I mean, we give you at this point, I mean, the best view that we have within Thales with, of course, I mean, defense with, I mean, quite a good traction on this matter. Avionics also pretty good traction. Space as well. And that's -- I mean, when you look at our level of growth for Space in 2025 has been above the expectations. It's a matter of fact.
I mean, I remember a year ago telling you space revenue should be low single digit in 2025. Eventually, we have done the mid-single-digit plus for space, so doing better. I mean the -- then it's about cyber, and we share, I mean, how we see the situation getting back to growth progressively on cyber product. And I mean, this is what we expect to announce you in a year's time as we release our 2026 financials.
But overall, what I see is that as compared to what we said a year ago, we are overall, whether it's order intake, whether it's revenue, organic growth, whether it's EBIT, whether it is net income, whether it's free operating cash flow, at the end of the day, when you look at our 2025 figures compared to what we said a year ago, all those metrics in terms of 2025 results are above what we said a year ago.
I mean this is just a fact-based comments. So at this point, and we are just entering 2026 with, of course, a number of open points, and we see in a year's time whether or not, I mean, we'll be at this level or whether we'll be above what we guided this morning.
But we have shared what we do strongly believe in as we speak, of course. But David, every year, we face along the year, unexpected events. And typically, last year, it was a tariff who could have expected the decision taken by the U.S. President at the very beginning of 2025, no one, by the way, no one. Then it's our duty. And I think it's part of the merit of the business model of Thales to deliver whatever it happens.
And the fact that, yes, we are, I would say, involved in several domains or several verticals, maybe a source of complexity for you guys trying to understand Thales, but it's also a source of resilience along the year when it happens something here or there. And it always happens something here or there, always, always always.
So at the end, what really counts, it's Thales' results, even more importantly, that's the results of division A, B or C. And again, if we do our results by the end of this year a bit differently, what would be even more important is doing our results globally speaking. So we will see, David. We'll do our best to deliver, I would say, as expected per division, but what matters most is what we do at group level.
Okay. And something we can chat about over the next dinner, which we look forward to.
With pleasure, David, with pleasure.
Yes, we are now going to proceed with one final question. And the questions come from the line of Ross Law from Morgan Stanley.
So just one on kind of high level on the medium-term growth outlook, which you've upped -- the upper end of the range of 5% to 7%. Can you just provide some color on the growth rates at the divisional level? That's the first one. And then just secondly, on Space, what is the absolute EBIT contribution in '25? And what do you expect for '26?
Okay. So at this point, I mean, a bit cautious and we are guiding you division by division for the 2024, 2028 period of time. I mean what we said today is overall Thales in terms of organic growth being at the high end range of the 5% to 7%. But at this point, we need to be more patient. I don't want to go deeper on this matter.
Second point on Space. So you probably remember a year ago, we said that we're expecting, I mean, 2025, pre-restructuring EBIT being positive. What I can share with you is that overall, the post restructuring, so full adjusted EBIT for Space was slightly positive in 2025 despite the level of restructuring that in my memory is something around EUR 20 million.
So overall being slightly positive despite the EUR 20 million headwind on restructuring. It shows that we have done a bit more than expected on this matter. And what we're expecting in 2026 is the further progression of our EBIT. All of that being consistent with the 7% plus 2028 EBIT margin that we shared at the Capital Market Day with some kind of linear progression in terms of EBIT margin.
This is what we said a year ago, and this is what we can confirm today. So linear progression from this breakeven plus full EBIT margin in 2025 to 7% plus in 2028.
So thank you all for your questions. We'll be happy to meet you on the road in the next couple of days together with Pascal. If you have any follow-up questions, do not hesitate to reach out to Louis and the IR team. I wish you all a very good day. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.
Thank you very much. See you. Bye-bye.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. If you didn't have a chance to ask your question on today's call, please do not hesitate to send your question to Thales Group Investor Relations at [email protected], and we will get back to you as soon as possible. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.
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Thales — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Auftragseingang: EUR 25,3 Mrd. (Rekordniveau; auf 2024er‑Niveau)
- Umsatz: EUR 22,1 Mrd. (+8,8% organisch; +7,6% reported; Währungseinfluss −1,5pp)
- Adjusted EBIT: EUR 2,7 Mrd.; EBIT‑Marge: 12,4%
- Free Operating Cash Flow: EUR 2,6 Mrd. (+27%); Cash‑Conversion 128%
- Ergebnis & Dividende: Adjusted EPS EUR 9,76; Vorstand schlägt EUR 3,90/Aktie (+5,5%) vor
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Kapazitätsaufbau: Massive Hochlauf‑Pläne zur Deckung der erhöhten Verteidigungsnachfrage; Rekrutierung von >9.000 Personen geplant.
- AI‑Strategie: cortAIx als unternehmensweite Plattform (800 AI‑Experten, 100+ Patente), AI in 100+ Produkten (z.B. TALIOS, autonome Minenbekämpfung).
- Space‑Ambition: MoU mit Airbus und Leonardo für einen europäischen Space‑Champion (BROMO), Betriebsstartziel 2027 bei regulatorischer Zustimmung.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Wachstum 2026: Organisches Umsatzwachstum 6–7% → EUR 23,3–23,6 Mrd.
- Profitabilität: Adjusted EBIT‑Marge 12,6–12,8%
- Cash & Invest: Free operating cash flow conversion 95–100%; CapEx ~EUR 820–850 Mio; Buch‑zu‑Rechnung >1.
- Langfristiges Ziel: Zielmargen 2028: EBIT 13–14%, Conversion hoch
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Cyber‑Erholung: Imperva‑Integration abgeschlossen; Management zielt auf schrittweise Wachstum 2026, Cyber‑Produktmarge mittelfristig deutlich höher (Rule of 30 → ~20% Zielband), 2026er Cyber‑EBIT ~15,5% genannt.
- AI & M&A: Agentic‑AI wird als Chance für Cyber‑Produkte bewertet; M&A‑Disziplin bleibt, Buybacks möglich aber abhängig von Bewertung und Kapitalbedarf.
- SAMP/T NG & BROMO: Dänischer SAMP/T‑Auftrag gilt als sehr wahrscheinlich; BROMO: soziale und kartellrechtliche Prüfungen laufen konstruktiv, keine Freigabegarantie.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bottom Line: Thales liefert 2025 starke operative und Cash‑Ergebnisse, getrieben von Defence und Avionics; hohe Cash‑Conversion finanziert Investitionen und eine moderat höhere Dividende. Cyber bleibt der Hauptrisiko‑Punkt, Management zeigt aber konkrete Maßnahmen zur Rückkehr auf Wachstum. BROMO und Space bieten optionalen Mehrwert, sind aber regulatorisch noch nicht sicher.
Thales — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to today's Thales Q3 2025 Results Call. The presentation will be held by Pascal Bouchiat, Thales' CFO. It will be followed by a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. I must advise you that today's conference is being recorded.
I would now like to hand the conference over to Ms. Alexandra Boucheron, VP, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Madam.
Good morning. Welcome and thank you for joining us for the presentation of Thales' 9 months 2025 order intake and sales. I am Alexandra Boucheron, Head of Investor Relations at Thales. And with me today is Pascal Bouchiat, Thales' Chief Financial Officer. As usual, this presentation is audio webcast-ed live on our website, thalesgroup.com, where the slides and the press release are also available for download. A replay will be available soon after the end of the event.
With that, I would like to turn over the call to Pascal Bouchiat.
Thank you, Alexandra. Good morning, everyone. So let me start with Q3 2025 highlights. I'm now on Slide 2. Thales continued to record over the third quarter a strong commercial momentum in most of its businesses. The level of demand for our solutions continues to be high, notably in Defense, where our backlog benefits from stronger European collaboration, in particular in the framework of the Readiness 2030 strategic defense initiative.
Thales indeed booked in the third quarter, several large contracts with European countries, notably in air defense. I will come back to those later in the presentation. Air defense, as you know, is a critical need today in a number of countries. In that context, Thales is proud to have recorded a first export success for the SAMP/T NG that was selected by Denmark in September. This comes as a major turning point for the SAMP/T NG and paves the way for further successes.
Space also saw some good news this quarter. Thales indeed signed a first contract with SpaceRISE, the consortium of satellite operators. This contract relates to a first sizable engineering development phase for the IRIS Square constellations. Although discussions are still ongoing with the open commissions and SpaceRISE, this is an encouraging sign that the project is progressively taking shape.
Finally, Thales keeps being at the forefront of innovation in its businesses. This is particularly true on the quantum revolution in which Thales researchers are playing a central role. To that end, we launched in September, the very first quantum-resistant smart card in Europe to receive high-level security certification from French Cybersecurity Agency, ANSSI, on industrial standards. This underscores Thales' commitments to staying ahead of emerging cyber risks in the quantum era.
Moving on to 9 months and Q3 2025 key figures on Slide 3. Order intake amounted to EUR 16.8 billion at end September '25, up 9% organically year-on-year. This performance was driven by continued strong commercial momentum in the third quarter, which saw a 30% -- 37% organic growth, and the booking of several large contracts that I will comment on the next slide. Sales came to EUR 15.3 billion over 9 months, up 9.1% in organic terms. Q3 alone recorded a sharp 11.2% organic growth. This puts us right on track to deliver our 2025 annual targets.
Moving on to Slide 4, commenting order intake. As mentioned earlier, commercial momentum keeps being strong for Thales, driven by the continued success of our product and solutions with our clients. As you can see on the graph on the right-hand side, all types of orders contributed to this robust performance. A few comments on large orders first, which continue to fuel the backlog. 14 large orders have been booked so far this year, of which 4 new orders came in Q3.
Nine large orders were booked in Defense over 9 months, including two with a unit value in excess of EUR 1 billion, namely the order of 26 Rafale by Indian Navy and the contract with the U.K. MOD for the delivery of 5,000 LMM missiles. Also five large orders were booked in Aerospace, of which four in Space and one in Avionics. It's worth mentioning that orders between EUR 10 million and EUR 100 million recorded a remarkable 18% growth, while orders below EUR 10 million were continuously solid as well.
Moving on to sales on Slide 5. A few words first on scope and currency impacts. Over 9 months, the scope impact amounted to EUR 90 million, mainly coming from Cobham AeroComms acquisitions closed in April 2024. Currency impact was negative at minus EUR 164 million over the period, including minus EUR 91 million in Q3 alone. All in all, this negative impact led to a 1 point headwind on sales reported growth.
Sales organic growth reached a solid 9.1% over 9 months. This performance is a result of strong sales momentum in Aerospace, mostly driven by Avionics and continued double-digit growth in Defense. In Cyber & Digital, sales were slightly down organically over the period, reflecting different trends I will comment later. Both mature and emerging markets contributed to this robust sales growth with a noticeable 14.5% organic growth in emerging markets.
Now moving on to performance by segment, starting with Aerospace on Slide 6. Orders in the Aerospace segment amounted to EUR 3.9 billion, up 7% in organic terms. This performance reflects solid underlying demand in Avionics, fueled by the continued success of Thales solutions. In Space, order intake was up with four large orders booked since the beginning of the year, of which three in telco, including the contract related to IRIS Square and also one in exploration.
Sales reached EUR 4.1 billion over the first 9 months of 2025, representing an increase of 6.9% organically year-on-year. This sustained growth momentum was notably driven by Avionics, which recorded continuous robust organic growth over the period in both civil and military domains. All sub activities were supportive of this performance. In Space, sales were up year-on-year, in line with our annual expectation for this business.
Now commenting Defense performance, I'm on Slide 7. Order intake in the segment amounted to EUR 9.9 billion over 9 months, a 12% increase in organic terms. Q3 was especially strong. However, we know that quarterly order intake can be bumpy. In the current supportive context, nine large orders have been booked since the beginning of the year. Three were booked in Q3, including two air defense contracts with the U.K. and Germany for a combined amount of EUR 1.9 billion. These significant commercial successes illustrate that Thales, leveraging its comprehensive portfolio of innovative products and solutions, is ideally positioned to benefit from the ongoing stronger European collaborations in defense.
The perspectives remain solid in the coming quarters and years as countries are progressively increasing their defense spending and benefiting from further support from Europe as part of the Readiness 2030 initiative. Sales were up sharply year-on-year, up 14% organically to EUR 8.2 billion. All our defense activities contributed to this robust performance with continued strong growth. This puts us right on track to deliver high single-digit organic growth for the full year 2025 in Defense. As a reminder, we expect a lower Q4 on the back of the high comparison basis from last year, which saw Q4 '24 record 24% organic growth.
Now looking at the Cyber & Digital, I'm now on Slide 8. Sales in the Cyber & Digital segment amounted to EUR 2.8 billion over 9 months, slightly down organically at minus 1.3%. In Cyber, sales were down year-on-year over 9 months. In Cyber Products, the business was not yet back to normal in the third quarter. The first half of this year saw the final step of Imperva's integrations with the merger of Thales and Imperva sales force. This, as you know, created some disturbances on the business. Those disturbances continue to weigh on the performance in the third quarter. We are continuously focusing all our efforts to get back to growth in an overall supportive cyber market.
Cyber Premium Services sales were down year-on-year. The business kept being soft in Australia, where it has a significant footprint. The ongoing execution of our premiumization strategy aimed notably at focusing our sales strategy on selective profitable growth segments. And this is, however, showing encouraging signs.
Moving to Digital Identity, where was sales were up slightly over 9 months. In Payment Services, digital banking solution showed outstanding growth over 9 months, which was, however, muted by still low volumes on physical cards. We indeed see some areas of the business still impacted by customers' destocking. Secure Connectivity solutions sales recorded sustained growth over the period, mostly driven by the strong momentum of digital solutions, included eSIM and on-demand connectivity platforms.
So concluding with our financial objective for 2025, I'm now on Slide 9. The continued strong momentum for both order intake and sales in Q3 2025 and the strong perspective ahead of us make us fully confident to achieve the target set for the year. Accordingly, we fully confirm our 2025 objectives. Book-to-bill ratio will be above 1. Sales are expected to grow organically between 6% and 7%, corresponding to a range of EUR 21.8 billion to EUR 22 billion. And the adjusted EBIT margin is expected between 12.2% and 12.4%. Many thanks for your attention, and I will now be pleased to answer your questions.
[Operator Instructions] And the first question come from the line of Olivier Brochet from Rothschild & Co.
2. Question Answer
Pascal, I would have three quick ones, if I may, please. The first one is on Defense and a small part of the business for you, I suppose, which are drones. Could you give us a sense of how large a business it is for you today? The second question is related to that one. You announced the joint venture with Destinus a few weeks ago. Can you share a bit more on what you will be doing in this area? And the third one is on the F126 in Germany. If they change the prime contractor for that contract, what are the consequences for Thales, please?
Okay. Olivier, so starting with your first question about drones. I mean it's at this point, quite a small business overall for Thales, but clearly, an opportunity for us to get growth. Maybe it's worth that I remind how we are positioned and what we want to do on this market. By the way, I guess that when you discuss about drones, I understand that it might be more unmanned air vehicles, what we call UAV. Knowing that we also see the emergence of drones, for example, undersea -- underwater system, where we also work on drones, by the way, with Naval Group. But at this point, the market is probably more driven by unmanned air vehicles.
When we discuss about drones or UAV, we can discuss about platforms that are used for different purposes, but we can also discuss about what we call loitering munition, which, as you know, is this type of ammunitions can fly over potential targets and then detect and be directed to the target. So I mean, the concept of drones covers a spectrum of different type of solutions.
Now how are we positioned on this matter? As you know, our play is not to develop platforms. What we do is more to provide the equipment, the solutions, but also the system integration. So what does it mean? It means that in terms of specific solutions, we provide, of course, a set of different sensors. That's the first, the type of business we develop in this drone business. Second is what we call C2, command and control. So providing the intelligence to the systems. And third is military capabilities and in particular, through the development and the sales of what we call warhead in particular, to equipped at drones or loitering ammunitions.
So this is where we are positioned. So as you understand, it's more either positioning Thales as a supplier of different equipment. By the way, I also forget another type of equipment, which is secured communications line of sight, for instance. So what we do is to provide this type of equipment together with, in some cases, also providing system integration capabilities. So this is basically what we do.
Now overall, at this point, it's a business which is probably yes a triple-digit million euros of revenue. But at this point, relative to the size of our Defense, it's not that a large segment, but clearly a growing one. Your second question was about the JV that we announced this morning. But your question was a bit broad, Olivier, when you say what we will be doing with this JV. So can you elaborate a bit more because otherwise, my answer will be quite generic?
I don't know if I'm still on the line.
Yes, yes.
I am, perfect. No, the question was on the JV with Destinus in drones.
No, I thought that you were asking a question about the JV that we announced this morning. So no, Destinus is probably a good example where, I mean -- and probably you have seen the number of potential drones that this could reflect. And basically, it's probably a good demonstration of what we want to do. And very clearly, we don't make platforms, but we can platform -- we can partner with platform makers. And in particular, when it comes to high volumes type of platform production, this is not the type of business we want to be in at Thales. Once again, with the intent at Thales to focus on providing sophisticated equipment. I mentioned sensors, C2, line of sight, warheads. So this is basically how we want to position ourselves, and Destinus is probably a good example of what we want to do.
Your last question was about F126. And it's true that the German MOD is considering changing the responsibility from Damen to another prime contractor. This is what we have understood. Now of course, we are in close relationship with the German MOD. And I mean, all news that we got from them are pretty reassuring about our positioning in this program, where you understand that we provide in particular, two large type of equipment. First is SAMP/T, in particular, water capability for this class of frigates, plus the Combat Management System, which is also, of course, a critical equipment for this class of frigates.
Our next questions come from the line of Alessandro Pozzi from Mediobanca.
Congratulations for the new JV in Space, and I do have some questions about that. I'm not sure how much you can say at this point, but I will try anyway. The first will be in terms of strategy, how the new company or the new JV is positioning versus what the three different companies are doing at the moment in terms of positioning in different subsegments of Space? And you talked about synergies. I'm not sure how you can tell us how you arrived to the triple-digit numbers. And also, we've been reading about on the press that there potentially could be a compensation to Airbus for having a lower share of 35%. Any color on that would be appreciated.
Alessandro, so on your first question, it's really about putting together the strength of the three companies and working more and more on more integrated offers, but it will be also bring together all the R&D capabilities, which are pretty significant in each of the three companies. I mean, to build up here again as much as we can and avoiding duplications of efforts when it comes to development. But because of that, freeing resources to invest in order to pursue new opportunities.
You discussed and I could elaborate just a bit on the synergies. We mentioned mid-triple-digit level of bottom line synergies 5 years after the closing. And as you can imagine, in this type of situation, it's going to be a combination of top line revenues. And of course, more synergies reflecting better competitiveness and better operational performance. When it comes to, in particular, better operational performance, as I mentioned, avoiding duplications of investments. But it means also combining as much as possible engineering capabilities.
Of course, working on program management where we believe that we can make a substantial savings. Of course, SG&A is also a matter we can expect also synergies. Not to mention, of course, procurement will be also an area where we can envisage synergies. So quite a wide spectrum of synergies. All of that in a context where we believe that the level of growth in this market should start picking up or should grow. And it's also true that the recent news in terms of announcements in [indiscernible] Europe in terms of the need to invest more in space capabilities is making the overall framework probably a positive in order to develop this type of synergies. It's always, of course, much easier to get synergies in a growing market than in a shrinking market.
Your last question was about compensations. And yes, to reflect -- I mean, to make sure that overall, there will be a balance between the economic contribution of each partner and its level of shareholding. And yes, there will be a mechanism with regard to balancing payments. Now at this point, it's really too early to make any more comments. And this type of balancing payments will be made public probably at closing and not before.
Okay. If I can, just maybe last one on Cyber. I think the overall division, Cyber & Digital, I think we've seen an improvement versus H1, but Cyber is still a little bit weak. Should we expect maybe an improvement in Q4? Or you see an improvement in Cyber sales something for 2026?
No. Of course, we are expecting 2026 to be stronger than 2025. Now Q4, we should see a sequential improvement as compared to Q3. Now it's true that, as I mentioned, in my press is true that we still see those disturbances still weighing in terms of overall efficiency and in terms of level of revenue. So we expect Q4 to be better than Q3, but it's true that where we're expecting more growth is probably from 2026.
And the next question come from the line of Benjamin Heelan from Bank of America.
I had a few. So firstly, just wanted to ask a little bit more on the Space JV. Are there going to be any onetime charges, cap gains, et cetera, that we need to think about? And should we assume going forward, it will be consolidated from January '27 as a rough time line? Secondly, I wanted to ask on Aerospace. It seems as though the supply chain is in a much better position than it was. Can you talk through a little bit how are you seeing the aftermarket performance there? What are you seeing in terms of your OE and your IFE business and the trends you're seeing there?
A quick question on Cyber, just to follow on from that last question. I mean the 3Q performance to me feels disappointing relative to the comments you guys had made on the Q2 call. And it doesn't seem from your comments that it will return to growth in Q4. It sounds as though Cyber will improve sequentially, but it's still not going to grow. And I feel as though at half year, the commentary was we're largely through a lot of these integration challenges, so we should start to see an improvement. So what has lagged in Q3, that's meant it's continued to be quite weak? Just to understand a little bit what's going on there.
And then final one, France in your geographic tables. It does look quite weak in terms of both orders, but also revenues. I was just wondering if there's anything to read into that with the government changes that we've had.
Ben, so a number of questions, so I'll try to be quick. So on the Space JV, you asked about onetime charge. Before closing, overall at Thales, we don't expect any significant onetime charge as the carve-out of our own business is mostly done because, as you know, we already today operate through a JV. Thales Alenia Space is already some kind of stand-alone company. So we don't expect on our side significant carve-out cost, first point.
Now once the JV is launched, you mentioned about 2027 January 1. I mean, we believe that the closing should be done in 2027. At this point, we cannot be more precise, but I wouldn't bet on January 1 in terms of date of closing. I think it will be probably later than that. And the reason, as you understood, of course -- by the way, there's, of course, a bit of uncertainty on this matter. And in particular, as you have understood, we have ahead of us, some significant discussions with regulatory bodies in various jurisdictions, in particular in Europe, but not only in Europe. And we know that by experience that all of that can take time.
Now once the JV is up and running, we mentioned the level of synergies that we plan to get. Of course, there will be cost to implement those synergies. Probably at this point, it's probably a bit too early to be more precise on this matter. But of course, to get synergies, we need to consider cost to implement those synergies. That's, of course, something which is quite obvious.
Aerospace, overall in Q3, above our expectations in terms of level of growth in this business. By the way, not that much driven by aftermarket, where there was growth. But where we had most of the growth in our Avionics business is more on IFE. But also the line fit was also pretty strong in Q3. And overall, Avionics in terms of top line growth in Q3 above our expectations. Which was not the case for Cyber and it's true that in Q3 overall -- and you're absolutely right. I mean, then the level of revenue in Cyber in Q3 was a bit below our expectations.
At this point, we say that Q4 should be better than Q3, yes. It has stabilized in Q3, but we are expecting more in terms of level of revenue. So we believe that we'll see Q4 being better than Q3. But of course, I'm a bit cautious considering the fact that Q3 was a bit below our expectations. And France. So France overall, no specific concern. It's true that Q3 last year, we had pretty large orders in France, by the way, in particular, on the SAMP/T for France. So as I mentioned, it can be a bit bumpy, but no specific concern on this matter.
And the questions come from the line of Ian Douglas-Pennant from UBS.
Sorry, can you still hear me? I was going to blame the UBS IT for not let me find the mute button. Could we talk about the Defense business just to start with. So what are your expectations for growth for the full year for that business? And if it's still high single-digit, could you talk about what the offsets are in Q4 in excess of, of course, the high comp that you've got? Secondly, on the Space JV, a couple of questions. Could you just educate us quickly the Thales SESO business? Could you just help us understand roughly how big that business is? And apologies if that's been said before? And if the JV comes into force in 2027, what are the major risks to timing around that? Should we be thinking about antitrust? Should we be thinking about negotiations with the partners? Should we be thinking about something else?
Okay. Ian, so on your first question about growth in Defense for the full year. So I stick to the high single-digit organic growth for revenue for the full year 2025. It's true that end of September, it's above this level because it's 14%. Now as I said, Q4 last year was very strong with a 24% growth as compared to Q4 2023. So hence, the fact that we said because the reference base is so high in Q4, we are, of course, a bit cautious. And this is why we stick to the level of growth that I mentioned earlier, so high single-digit.
Now probably from my tone, you can get that overall Q3 was, in Defense, a bit above expectations. And by the way, a level of growth, which is not coming from a single segment or a few segments, it's really across the board in Defense that we see pretty strong level of growth. Your question about our Space business, your question was about the size of this business today at Thales, was it?
Exactly, sir. Yes.
So overall, as you know, we operate our Space business through two JVs. One is Thales Alenia Space, where we own 67%, which is consolidated -- fully consolidated at Thales. And the 2024 level of revenue for this business was EUR 2.2 billion. And second, we've got in this, what we call, the space alliance with Leonardo. We also have a minority stake in Telespazio, 33%. But Telespazio is consolidated just through the equity method, which means that we don't consolidate the Telespazio revenue in our own P&L. We just reflect our share in the net income of Telespazio.
Your last question was about what would be the risk to close the -- this new JV. As you have understood, we've got -- if I summarize, we've got ahead of us three challenges, three steps or three key type of actions. One is, of course, to engage the social processes with works councils, employee's representatives and that in the various countries we operate in which, by the way, the three partners, the three companies operate. And the announcements of today allow us to initiate this overall social process.
Second is, of course, getting ready and working on the various steps to make a stand-alone company, which means that there will be some, in particular, a carve-out at each of the three companies. As I mentioned, at Thales, we already operate through two JVs. Which means that in our view, for our own contributions, the preparations will be -- will not be that a great challenge.
And the last point, which is probably, of course, the one where the timing can take a bit of time. It is, of course, going through all the regulatory approval and going through all the regulatory bodies, in particular, the antitrust regulators. And we know that all of that can take a bit of time. Now it's also true that we have already started to engage some of them, and other regulators will be engaged in the very short term. So those are, in my view, the three elements.
In particular, the last one, this is probably where, of course, we need to be vigilant, even though we believe that our case is pretty strong. Of course, I could comment more on this matter. But when it comes to this type of process interactions with antitrust regulatory bodies, we know that it can take time. So this is why we mentioned that the closing of the new JV will be in 2027 without, at this time, to be able to say when will this be enforced.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question come from the line of Herve Drouet from CIC Market Solutions.
Pascal, so two questions. First one, I just wanted to check the order from Denmark on SAMP/T NG, sorry. Was it -- do you know when it will be booked in your order book? And was the part booked in Q3 or not? And if it's not the case, at what time do you think it could be booked? And the second question is back to the Space JV. I understand you are saying you are currently operating through existing JV. So therefore, the job on your side and the cost you will have to put aside to include the business will be relatively limited. But I was wondering, did you get any data you can share with us in terms of the overall integration cost we should expect for this new entity to be put together? You were talking about synergies as three-digit -- in the three-digit million euro range in 5 years' time. I was wondering if you can give us a bit of a range potentially on the integration cost side, if you are aware of any.
Okay. Herve, so let's start with your first question about SAMP/T NG relative to Denmark. So it has not been booked in Q3. What we have announced in Q3 is the fact that we have been selected by Denmark. But of course then afterwards, you need to proceed with the final negotiations and signing a contract. Of course, this is a sizable contract. At this point, I'm not able to tell you whether this contract will be booked in Q4 2025 or in 2026. At this point, it's an open topic, but no specific stress on this matter. But it's probably quite a good example when I explained to the investors that it's always difficult to tell you that in this quarter why is it that the order intake in this quarter was above or below the expectation. It is also because we need to deal with this type of uncertainty, and it can move from December to Q1 2026. And at this point, I have no clue. But once again, it's not a concern to me.
Now on the JV, I will try to be clear, but taking into account, of course, the level of details that at this point we can communicate to you. So first, in terms of the level of synergies, we mentioned in the press release a level of synergies on the bottom line. So on the operating income, a level of synergies that would be mid-triple-digit million euro. Overall if I want to explain more in terms of what should be the range, it's between EUR 400 million and EUR 600 million of synergies on the operating income. And this 5 years after the closing of the transaction.
Now as I explained, to get these type of synergies, you need to -- of course, you need to spend money, you need to spend cash. And what is drafted in the press release, and I won't be able at this point to be more precise is that associated cost to generate those synergies are expected to be in line with industry benchmark. As you are expert of the industrial matters, no doubt that you will be able to have your own view about this statement. But at this point, and you need to consider that we are at the beginning of a new adventure with Airbus and Leonardo, pretty excited about putting together our assets. But of course, at this point, and considering this is the first step, we cannot be more precise on this matter.
The next question come from the line of David Perry from JPMorgan.
So it's a busy results day, and I missed a little bit of what you said. So I really apologize if I'm repeating anything. But two questions. One, could you just give a bit more precise detail on the sales growth that we saw in Q3 between Space and pure Avionics, and maybe even the Avionics civil versus military? And then just one last question. I know you've had loads of questions about Space and the JV. But that synergy number is very high as a percentage of sales for the combined entity. Are you expecting all of that to flow to EBITA? Or is that a gross number, but quite a lot of that is going to get recycled into R&D, for example, to be more competitive? So how much actually will flow to the EBIT number of the new entity?
Okay, David. So on your first question, overall looking at our Aerospace segment end of September, we said 6.9%. And I explained that Avionics growth was significantly above this level and Space -- below Space in line with our expectations, meaning that Space end of September is around 2%. And you've got Avionics, which is more probably something like high single digits of organic growth overall for the first 9 months in 2025. So we see, yes, this bit of disconnect between those two businesses.
On Space, it's -- yes, what we expect is really a bottom line impact of the synergies. Of course, you need to understand that in the first few years after the closing, there will be charges to implement synergies. And it's true that 5 years after the closing, of course, there won't be any more cost to implement synergies. But synergies will still not be at full speed, but will be already pretty significant, as you mentioned. And yes, this level of synergies is expected to impact positively the operating income of the joint ventures.
Okay. Very interesting. It's a huge percent of sales. Well, good luck with it.
No good luck. Of course, you also need to consider that from the current level of revenue of the JV. We mentioned EUR 6.5 billion of revenue. This is a pro forma 2024 figure. It shows that we expect the JV, as it close in 2027 or 2028 as the first year of -- full year operations in this new JV, we expect quite a significant growth. By the way, it's also good to have in mind that relative to Thales, this JV allow us to be more exposed to more growing businesses, in particular services because, as you know Thales Alenia Space doesn't provide service because service is part of Telespazio when it comes to Thales.
And it's also true that in the mid- to long-term, we expect services in the Space to grow more quickly than the infrastructure. So overall, please don't look at the level of synergies that we mentioned relative to the EUR 6.5 billion. It has to be compared to a level of revenue, which 5 years after the closing, which will be probably more something like 2032, which will be, of course, significantly above the EUR 6.5 billion revenue pro forma that we disclosed.
No, that's super helpful. Can I be cheeky and just sneak one more in? And again, I really apologize if it was already asked. In forming this JV, are there any equalization payments from any of the parties?
Yes. Of course as I mentioned, there will be, of course some kind of balancing payments. We cannot be more vocal at this point, as I explained earlier. But of course those balancing payments, it will ensure that the economic contributions of each of the three partners reflect its level of shareholding. This is quite obvious. But at this point, we cannot disclose. And by the way, those balancing payments might also take into account some valuation adjustments. So we need to wait until the closing to get final figures in terms of those balancing payments.
The next question come from the line of Chloe Lemarie from Jefferies.
Pascal, I would actually want to follow up on the topic of the F126 enrollment because the potential new prime contractor is in the process of being acquired by Rheinmetall, and they have actually called Thales among the companies they would want to partner with to expand their exposure to naval systems. So could you share maybe from your perspective, what could be the appeal of such a partnership? And what would be the key criteria for you to agree as opposed to just supplying systems as you currently do on naval platform? And the second one is on the Rafale in India. There's been quite a lot of news flow recently. So anything you can share to help us understand where in the process we are, especially around discussions on offsets and content, which seems to be a sticking point.
Chloe, I'm sorry, but I'm going to disappoint you probably on both topics. No, on Rheinmetall, of course, we are discussing. And that's already a comment that I made earlier. Of course the current situation, which is, by the way, very good with all those opportunities in terms of business development opens the door for more partnership with other companies. And I remember mentioning in particular, the JVs that we have decided with Kongsberg in Norway, but also JVs that were put in place in Ukraine to support our development in this country.
Of course, we are discussing with other partners and Rheinmetall is quite a good example. No, at this point, it's really too early to be more precise on anything because it's really too early. Maybe last point, I could comment specifically on F126. We welcome any decision from the end customers, the German MOD, to secure the overall execution of such an important project. And of course, we'll do whatever we can to cooperate with the new prime contractors if this is a decision of the German MOD. All of that with the spirit of collaborations, which is for us absolutely essential.
Last point on India. There is nothing more I can say on this matter. Probably a question that you could direct to Dassault Aviation as the prime contractors on this type of business. So no. And always difficult to make any comment. Now, good to see that Rafale has a number of opportunities which shows the quality of the aircraft. And in particular, when it comes to existing customers willing to order more, which, by the way, happened in various countries so far. It shows how they see the quality of the aircraft and also the support from the various partners in the overall operation. So all of that is pretty positive. But you need to be a bit patient on this matter as it is the case in all, I would say, Rafale opportunities.
On the Rafale, can I just ask you to confirm whether you're involved in the discussions on the offsets and the technological transfer? Or is it all through Dassault?
No. I mean, of course, we are involved with Dassault in the discussion. Now it's true that Dassault is leading the negotiation. But of course, we are involved as a partner, as a key partner with Dassault. And you discussed about offset. We are quite used to managing offsets in various countries and not just only for Rafale. It's really part of our business to be able to manage offsets in various countries. So don't consider that this is something which is new to us. This is something which we are quite accustomed to manage on various type of defense business in many countries. India is an example, among other examples of countries where you need to manage offset to develop your business. When I say offset, it's also -- and more and more importantly, the need for localization, which is, of course, something that we see developing for the future.
The next question come from the line of Ross Law from Morgan Stanley.
I've got two. The first is just on Cyber and coming back to Ben's question earlier. I'm just looking to understand if the integration of the sales team was completed in the first half, what exactly drove that 7% organic negative growth in the third quarter? And what changes in the fourth quarter to drive the expected sequential improvement? That's the first question. And then the second on rare earths. If you could provide some more color on which elements Thales is reliant on, where you source these, and what buffer stock you currently hold?
Ross, so on your first topic about Cyber. No, the integration of such a large commercial force, you cannot say that once it is merged, it is fully operational with a full effectiveness. And it's a progressive improvement that we expect from our commercial force through 2025. When it comes to your level of intimacy with your new customer, your level of technical understanding of the new portfolio of products that you need to sell, all of that cannot happen overnight, it takes time. And second, of course, all of that has also driven a level of turnover in our sales force, which was above what we anticipated. So which means that more turnover at our sales reps means the need to recruit more people, which means that we need to work more on training those new sales reps that joined Thales recently.
So all of that has created, yes, some disturbances and disturbances have not stopped end of June 2025. So it's a progressive improvement. But it's true that it is taking time. And it's true that today in terms of overall effectiveness -- looking at Q3 figures, it's true to say that overall, Q3 figures in terms of level of sales was below our expectations. Now we see with some metrics, that situation is improving, but it's probably a bit slower than expected. By the way, on the other side, if you look at Digital, our level of revenue was also above our expectation, in particular in the mobile connectivity business. So it means that it can be a bit different from one segment to the other.
Now, overall -- second question about rare earths. First, we don't buy rare earth minerals directly. Of course, we use small -- very small quantities of rare earths. At this point, we don't identify any specific risk in connection with the export restrictions, which has been imposed by China. Now of course, that's a point that we look closely. There was, in particular, the question about germanium, which is a strategic metal for Thales and in particular, in our infrared technologies. And it's true that on germanium, we have seen increasing global supply tension for this specific metal. Which means that as we have done in many other situations, we are working on different ways to manage these situations. So exploring new sources of germanium outside the traditional producing countries.
We are working on some recycling initiatives with some partners. And we are also working this time more on R&D to find alternative materials or to optimize the use of germanium in particular through optimized processes in order to use less germanium for the same outcome. So you see that overall our exposure is quite limited. But as always, as we face tension in the supply chain, we put in place the traditional actions, exploring new sourcing, working on getting additional stock from other partners, recycling. So those are the type of things that we have done in the past on other materials and overall pretty successful. So I would say this is one matter in the supply chain among many other supply chain challenges that we have been facing over the last few years. And that will continue, of course, as we will keep growing our top line.
And I made a few comments on supply chain in our last calls, saying that overall situation overall under control, which is the case. But please don't consider that supply chain tensions are no longer there. They are still there, which means that it is a continuous effort at Thales to manage supplies on various elements. I mentioned in the past, if you probably remember, hardware. I mentioned in particular PCB shortage. And we are still struggling to get the right level of materials for this type of patents, in particular, on specific hardwares and PCB is a good example. But so far, we have been able to manage all of that pretty successfully. And no doubt that it will continue this way going forward.
The next questions come from the line of Christophe Menard from Deutsche Bank.
So I had two. The first one is Defense Q3, very strong performance, as you said, organically. In the press release, you're saying that it's due to production capacity expansion being deployed. That means operational leverage, in my view. Does it mean that it could have a positive impact on your Defense margin in 2025? And the second question is on the Space Alliance. Sorry for this, you had a lot, but -- and still on the compensation, the formula that you will be using. My -- the question is, is the compensation -- I mean, you can't disclose it quite obviously, but is the compensation already agreed upon or will it be agreed upon in 2027? And will it be based on the formula mixing sales, EBIT performance, will it be based on historicals or forward-looking elements?
Thank you very much, Christophe, with your pretty specific questions. So on Defense, yes, but as I said in the past, new production capability being put on stream, yes, in Q3, but it's a continuous move. And quarter after quarters, we keep improving our overall production output following the investments that we have announced. And we gave you a few examples in the past about Thales increasing its production of effectors of airborne radars, ground-based radars. So we gave you a number of elements. I could mention also now more underwater system ramp-up capability. So nothing very specific on this matter. But all of that -- that was anticipated and all of that very much consistent with our guidance on Defense margin with this concept of 13% EBIT margin, which is the level of margin that we keep having in mind to guide you for the short and the mid-term.
Space Alliance, you want to know everything about that, but I will stick to what I said. Which means that, of course the mechanism has been agreed on, but the outcome will be finalized at closing. And that's the reason why we cannot be more precise on this matter as we speak today.
The next questions come from the line of Aymeric Poulain from Kepler Cheuvreux.
The last one on Cyber again. Would you be able to separate the performance in terms of organic growth in Q3 between product and services? And since someone asked about the margin outlook, would you be also able to confirm that the margin for DIS or Cyber & Digital now would stay around 14.5%? Or is there some impact of this weaker-than-expected organic growth on the margin outlook?
Aymeric, so your question in particular valid within Cyber because there are two elements between product and services. And this shows that where we are looking for growth. And what I said about effectiveness of the commercial force, all of that relates to the product business line within Cyber. This is where we've got a very pretty strong margin. This is why we are looking for growth on this segment, which is by far, the largest segment within Cyber.
The other one being services, where at this point, the profitability is not in line with our expectations. And where we said we made it clear, this business is needed, in particular, as we want to develop growth in products. This is a way to go-to-market for our product. But it's really a business where at this point, we are willing to focus on the profitable segments as opposed to market segments where we believe that differentiation is not recognized by customers. And this is why we have decided to exit some subsegments. And it's true that overall, if I take this service business, overall the drop in revenue. But part of it is really what we want to do is double digits year-on-year end of September. But once again, that's something we want to do in order to refocus this business more on the profitable market segments. And I need to say that I don't remember your second question.
The implication for the margin outlook.
Okay. So overall just to give you a rule of thumb, but probably a level of EBIT margin for the full year 2025, around 14% is probably what I have in mind. All of that being very much consistent with 12.2%, 12.4% overall at a group level.
The next question comes from the line of Sebastian Growe from BNP Paribas Exane.
Thanks for taking my question and squeezing me in. It's on SAMP/T. You recently said to expect more order wins for the SAMP/T and that beyond Denmark. So now you sounded on the call a bit reserved with regard to the timing of signing that contract. So my questions are, to what extent is the contract signing impacted by the question, how many systems Denmark might ultimately be willing to purchase? And secondly, how might the signing in, say, late '26 impact the signing of other contracts that you might have in the pipeline? So the question is if the Danish order is key to unlock potential elsewhere?
Sebastian, so it's true that as we discuss about Denmark, we are still discussing about the number of batteries. And it's -- this is why between being selected and sign a contract, there might be a bit of time gap. And that to a commercial discussion, which, in my understanding, also takes into account the final number of batteries that Denmark will order. First point.
Now second point, here we are discussing about a pretty sophisticated sensitive air defense capabilities. It's mid -- long-range type of capabilities. Those equipments, those systems are extremely sensitive for any countries. All of that, a bit like a combat aircraft, if I want to make some kind of analogy. All of that meaning that any contract of this kind, you've got a pretty lengthy upstream phase in terms of discussion with potential clients in order to end up with a final decision. It's not the type of contract that you sign in 2 or 3 months, it takes time because once again, it is extremely sensitive type of capabilities. But this is very sensitive, so I will not share this information with you. But of course, we are discussing with other potential customer.
When all of that will materialize, it will be probably progressive, but it will be in the next few years. So don't expect January 2026, Thales announcing one, two or three additional contract on SAMP/T NG that will be triggered by the signature of the Danish contract, no. This is quite important. And this is, of course a first step, which is so important for us as we discuss with other clients. Now the sequence of decisions in other countries at this point, of course, will take a bit of time. But as I mentioned a number of times, we are not looking for Q1 2026 order intake, but we are looking to keep growing our order intake in the next few years. And it's true that air defense capabilities is one key drivers -- key opportunities for Thales to keep growing our defense capability in the long term.
So air defense capability, in particular, SAMP/T NG is really the next 10 years in terms of capabilities because, of course, this system will continue to evolve, of course, but will be hopefully a success that will look like the Rafale success.
Last questions come from the line of Sam Burgess from Goldman Sachs.
Just following on the theme of air defense there. Some of your big wins recently have been focused on air defense, U.K., MOD, LLM, Denmark, SAMP/T. Just given the strength of demand that's likely to continue in that area over the midterm, do you see it as an area where you could do M&A or future JVs? Or are you pretty happy with your portfolio at the moment? And the second question, if I may, just the destocking that's ongoing in the banking payments business, any visibility on when that effect is likely to end would be really helpful.
Sam, so two different type of questions. So first on Defense and air defense. Yes, a quite important JV. As you know, we already operate under a JV with MBDA when it comes to mid, long-range air defense capability, and SAMP/T is a common venture between MBDA and Thales through a consortium, which is called EUROSAM. Now M&A on Defense because M&A cannot just be considered on air defense, because air defense is growing, so considering M&A on air defense questions, I would take it a bit more broadly about M&A in Defense.
Yes, no mysteries that we would be interested in any meaningful M&A on Defense. But this, of course, in line with our key M&A criteria when it comes to considering acquisitions. So of course the value of the technology, does it allow us to keep expanding our spectrum of technologies, what is the potential for growth, does it allow us to get a growing position in new markets, when I say new markets, in new geographies in particular. So those are the key criteria, of course, valuations as always. So yes, now we also acknowledge that M&A when it comes to transborder on Defense is always a challenge. So no rush. But of course we keep working and mapping the market to see whether there would be meaningful opportunities for us on Defense. But as you understand, not an easy ride considering the specificities of the defense industry.
Your second question about smart card destocking in particular on payments. It's true that it is taking more time than expected and in particular, in North America. So I would still be a bit cautious on this matter. Now that's something that we have anticipated. It's taking a bit longer, but I don't see anything concerning on this matter. So no, that's -- it's not for me something I'm quite concerned. Even though, yes, we would like the market to pick up a bit more quickly. But overall, for us, it's a balance also between level of revenue, level of margin. And at this point, the balance between the two on smart cards is pretty positive.
Okay. So I understand that was the last question. So thank you very much for all your questions. So as always, Alexandra and her team are at your disposal if you have any follow-up questions. It's true that there have been a number of questions, and it's true that it's not that common to issue both quarterly figures together with the announcement of a very important step relative to putting together a quite important business for Thales together with Leonardo and Airbus. That's a very positive news in our views. So don't hesitate to reach out. And with all of that, I wish you all a very good day. Thank you very much.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. If you didn't have a chance to ask your question on today's call, please do not hesitate to send your questions to Thales Group Investor Relations at [email protected], and we will get back to you as soon as possible. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect, and have a good day.
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Thales — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Auftragseingang: EUR 16,8 Mrd ( +9% organisch vs. Vorjahr)
- Umsatz 9M: EUR 15,3 Mrd (+9,1% organisch)
- Q3-Wachstum: Q3-Umsatz +11,2% organisch; Q3-Auftragseingang deutlich zweistellig (starke Quartalsdynamik)
- Defense: Umsatz EUR 8,2 Mrd (+14% organisch); neun Großaufträge in 9M (zwei >EUR 1 Mrd)
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Fokus Defense: Starke Nachfrage, Exporterfolg SAMP/T NG (Auswahl Dänemark) und große Air‑Defense‑Aufträge in UK/DE; Backlog wächst.
- Space-Strategie: Angekündigte JV mit Airbus und Leonardo zur Zusammenführung von Kapazitäten; Ziel: operative und Beschaffungs‑Synergien.
- Cyber & Innovation: Launch des quantenresistenten Smartcards; Cyber‑Integration (Imperva) läuft, verursacht vorübergehende Störungen im Wachstum.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Bestätigung: 2025-Ziele bestätigt: organisches Umsatzwachstum 6–7% (EUR 21,8–22,0 Mrd) und bereinigte EBIT‑Marge 12,2–12,4%.
- Risiken: Timing‑Risiko bei Vertragsabschlüssen (z.B. Dänemark SAMP/T NG), Verzögerungen bei Space‑JV‑Closing (Regulatoren, Soziales).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Cyber‑Schwäche: Ursache sind Vertriebsintegration, erhöhte Fluktuation und Übergangsstörungen; Management erwartet sequenzielle Verbesserung in Q4, echte Erholung 2026.
- Space‑JV‑Details: Synergien 5 Jahre nach Closing mit EUR ~400–600 Mio EBIT; Closing erwartet 2027, aber Timing unsicher (Regulatoren, Carve‑outs, Ausgleichszahlungen).
- SAMP/T‑Timing: Auswahl Dänemarks kommuniziert, Buchung noch offen (könnte Q4‑25 oder 2026 erfolgen); Anzahl Systeme bleibt Verhandlungspunkt.
⚡ Bottom Line
Thales bestätigt seine Jahresziele und profitiert von deutlichem Defense‑Momentum und großen Aufträgen. Kurzfristig dämpfen Cyber‑Integrationsprobleme und Unsicherheit beim Space‑JV‑Timing die Sichtbarkeit. Aktionäre sehen solides Umsatzwachstum und margenbestätigende Guidance, sollten aber Timing‑ und Integrationsrisiken beobachten.
Finanzdaten von Thales
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Jun '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 22.821 22.821 |
7 %
7 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 16.691 16.691 |
6 %
6 %
73 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 6.130 6.130 |
10 %
10 %
27 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 2.337 2.337 |
2 %
2 %
10 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | 1.375 1.375 |
6 %
6 %
6 %
|
|
| EBITDA | 3.513 3.513 |
13 %
13 %
15 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 1.094 1.094 |
4 %
4 %
5 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 2.419 2.419 |
23 %
23 %
11 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 1.496 1.496 |
40 %
40 %
7 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen EUR.
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Firmenprofil
Thales SA ist eine Holdinggesellschaft, die sich mit der Herstellung, der Vermarktung und dem Verkauf von elektronischen Geräten und Systemen für die Luftfahrt-, Marine- und Verteidigungsindustrie beschäftigt. Sie ist in den folgenden Segmenten tätig: Verteidigung & Sicherheit, Luft- und Raumfahrt und Transport. Das Segment Verteidigung und Sicherheit entwirft und liefert Systeme für die folgenden Bereiche: Land-, Luft-, See- und Raumfahrt sowie Cyberspace. Das Segment Luft- und Raumfahrt umfasst die globalen Geschäftsbereiche Avionik und Raumfahrt. Das Segment Transport bietet den Betreibern und Verwaltern von Verkehrsinfrastrukturen Systeme und Dienstleistungen für den Bodentransport an, wie z.B. Signal- und Steuerungssysteme für den Schienenverkehr und Lösungen für den Zahlungseinzug von Passagieren. Das Unternehmen wurde 1893 gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Paris, Frankreich.
aktien.guide Premium
| Hauptsitz | Frankreich |
| CEO | Mr. Caine |
| Mitarbeiter | 82.111 |
| Gegründet | 1893 |
| Webseite | www.thalesgroup.com |


