Svenska Cellulosa Aktie

Good morning, and welcome to this presentation of SCA's 2026 Half Year and Second Quarter Report. With me here today, I have President and CEO, Ulf Larsson; and CFO, Andreas Ewertz to go through the results and take your questions.

Over to you, Ulf.

Thank you, Anders. Good morning, and also from my side, a warm welcome to the presentation of our results for the second quarter. During the second quarter, SCA's market conditions were mixed between the segments. Pulp and solid Wood products faced a continued challenging market with weak demand, while renewable energy delivered a record result.

During the quarter, we saw improvements in both demand and pricing for the Containerboard segment. Price increases will impact our results for Q3 and Q4.

High fuel prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East affected the result within the Forest and Industry segments negatively, while the liquid biofuels business within segment, Renewable Energy, benefited in terms of increased margins. SCA reached SEK 1.3 billion on EBITDA level, and by that, an EBITDA margin of 25% for the second quarter.

Turning over to some financial KPIs for the second quarter. As already said, our EBITDA reached SEK 1.3 billion, which corresponds to a 25% EBITDA margin. Our Industrial return on capital employed came out close to 0, accounted for the last 12 months. And the leverage was at 2.1% with -- while on net debt to equity reached 10.7%.

I will now make some comments for each segment, starting with Forest. During the quarter, SCA continued to process windfall volumes for Forest owners in the areas affected by the storm at the end of last year. Harvesting level of our own forest was stable, but at a slightly lower level compared to the same period last year. Harvesting of own forest has contributed to a balanced supply of wood raw material or indices during the first and second quarter.

We've seen a continuous long-term trend of increasing prices for both Pulp, Wood and sawlog as can be seen in the graph on the bottom left. However, during the second quarter, both Pulp, Wood and sawlog prices decreased. When one compares Q2 '26 with Q2 '25, sales down 2%, while EBITDA was down 19%, mainly due to increased fuel costs and a lower harvesting volume in our own forest.

In general, we still have a slow underlying market for solid Wood products. Demand has remained stable over the last period, and we expect that situation to continue. The production in Sweden, Finland, Germany and also Canada has decreased given support to price increases in local currencies. Stock levels remain on the high side among producers for pine, but are normal for spruce. Stock levels at customers continue to be on the low side.

Delivery volumes were lower in Q2 '26 in comparison with Q2 '25. But Q2 '25 was, on the other hand, a record quarter in terms of deliveries for SCA. Our stock level of strong goods within SCA is at a balanced level. The price for solid wood products increased by 5% in the second quarter of '26 in comparison with the first quarter this year. The cost for sawlogs in the second quarter continued to be at the high level. We expect now to see decreases in low costs when moving into second half of this year.

Sales were 12% lower in comparison with the same quarter last year. EBITDA margin decreased from 18% to 6% due to higher raw material costs, lower deliveries and also due to negative currency effect.

Today's stock level of solid wood products in Sweden and Finland is described at the top left on this slide and is shown in relation to the average for the last 5 years. As mentioned earlier, we note that the general inventory level is on the high side, especially for pine, while I judge SCA level to be rather balanced.

As can be seen in the diagram to the bottom left, the Swedish and Finnish sawmill production has been below the 5 years average during '26. In the diagram to the top right, we can note that the export price index increased in the second quarter. And as already mentioned, SCA prices have also moved in the same direction.

Going into the next quarter, I estimate that price in the market will be close to unchanged. Looking forward towards the end -- year-end, we will probably see a stable development with a fairly good balance between supply and demand in solid wood products.

Moving over to the Pulp. When comparing Q2 '26 with Q2 '25, sales were down 3%, mainly due to lower prices and the negative currency effect, while delivery volumes increased. EBITDA was down 59%, which was also driven by lower prices and negative currency effect.

During the first quarter of '26, demand was rather weak, and net prices decreased from previous quarter due to high yearly rebates in Europe and the U.S. Net prices on NBSK then improved during the first quarter and in the beginning of the second quarter due to earnings being below cash costs for many soft food producers.

In China, demand for NBSK Pulp was normal during the second quarter, but prices decreased further due to Pulp port inventories being higher than normal. The conflict in Iran continued to increase complexity and costs for the Pulp industry.

Looking at CTMP, demand and prices remained on a low level during the second quarter. However, prices increased partly driven by increased prices on eucalyptus hardwood pulp. Inventories of softwood pulp were on a high level during the first and second quarters. Hardwood inventories on the contrary were below average level. And finally, CTMP inventors have been on a rather normal level.

Moving over to Containerboard. Sales were in line with the same period last year, driven by higher delivery volumes, but mitigated by lower prices and the negative currency effect. EBITDA decreased by 70%, driven by the planned maintenance stop at Obbola Mill, lower prices, negative currency effects and higher energy costs. The planned maintenance stop in Obbola had a negative result impact in the second quarter of SEK 147 million.

We've seen box demand improving during the second quarter. The manufacturing industry developed positively during the period, supported not the least by continuously growing retail business. European demand of kraftline has improved during Q2, following the box demand, and we forecast positive demand development of Containerboard also in coming quarters. There is no new Containerboard capacity started up in the first half of '26. During the last quarter of '26, we can expect ramp up of the new capacity started in 2025 as well as some closures to balance some of the increased supply.

Kraftliner inventories have moved down to historical average levels, driven by both improved deliveries and limited supply. During the second quarter, the availability of OCC has been in balance with supply and demand, which in its turn has led to minor upwards price adjustments. Prices for brown Kraftliner in Central Europe increased during the second quarter with EUR 60 per tonne and for white kraftliner with EUR 40 per tonne. The improved underlying demand in combination with strong cost pressure and lower global supply have supported the second price increase for kraftliner.

With gradual implementation as mid-June, prices for brown kraftliner in Central Europe will increase with additional EUR 60 per tonne and for white kraftliner with another EUR 40 per tonne. And the price increases will gradually be reflected in the earnings during the second half of the year.

So finally, I will say some words about Renewable Energy. In Renewable Energy, we've had a stronger quarter compared to the same period last year, mainly driven by high margins in our with ST1 jointly owned biorefinery in Gothenburg. Electricity prices were volatile during the quarter, but higher in comparison with Q2 previous year.

SCA's land lease business is stable at 10.6 terawatt hours according to plan. This is equal to 20% of installed capacity of wind power in Sweden. The market for solid biofuels was stable with slightly higher prices together with normal seasonal effects on deliveries. For liquid biofuels, we have seen continuous higher margins compared to previous quarters, driven by high fossil fuel prices, together with relatively stable renewable feedstock prices. However, in June, refinery margins returned to pre-Middle East conflict levels, mainly due to lower fossil prices and higher feedstock prices. We expect market volatility in renewable fuels to remain high as Europe ramps up the blending mandates both in HVO and South implementing RED III. In addition, we see impacts from conflicts in energy markets adding to this volatility.

And by that, I hand over to Andreas.

Thank you, Ulf, and good morning, everybody. I will start off with the income statement for the second quarter. Net sales decreased 4% to SEK 5.15 billion, driven by lower prices and negative currency effects, which was partly offset by higher delivery volumes. EBITDA decreased 36% to SEK 1.3 billion, driven by lower prices, negative currency effects, higher cost for planned maintenance stops and higher cost for raw materials. EBIT decreased to SEK 724 million and financial items totals minus SEK 90 million.

An effective tax rate of below 20% bringing net profit to SEK 523 million or EUR 0.74 per share.

On the next slide, we have the financial development by segment. And starting with the Forest segment to the left, net sales decreased somewhat to SEK 2.5 billion. EBITDA decreased slightly compared to the previous quarter and totaled SEK 866 million. Lower prices for Wood raw materials, higher fuel costs and seasonally higher costs for forest management were offset by seasonally high harvest from SCA's own forest.

In Wood, prices increased compared to the previous quarter. Net sales increased to SEK 1.5 billion due to high delivery volumes and higher prices compared to the previous quarter. EBITDA increased to SEK 89 million, corresponding to margin of 6%. Higher prices and lower cost for wood raw materials were partly offset by higher distribution costs.

In Pup, net sales increased to SEK 1.7 billion compared to previous quarter, while EBITDA increased to SEK 107 million, corresponding to margin of 6%. Increase was mainly driven by higher prices, high deliver volume and lower cost for wood raw materials, which was partly offset by higher distribution costs.

In Containerboard, kraftliner prices increased during the quarter. Net sales increased to SEK 1.8 billion, while EBITDA increased to SEK 135 million, corresponding to margin of 7%. Results was positively impacted the high prices and lower raw material costs, which offset by higher cost of planned maintenance stop of SEK 147 million and higher distribution costs.

In Renewable Energy, we had another record quarter driven by higher fuel prices. EBITDA increased to SEK 217 million, corresponding to margin of 42%. Higher fuel prices and high delivery volumes of tall oil were offset by seasonally lower demand for solid biofuels.

On the next slide, we have the sales bridge between Q2 last year and Q2 this year. Prices decreased 4% with lower prices in Pulp and Containerboard. Volumes increased 4%, driven by higher volumes in Pulp and Containerboard, which was offset by lower volumes in Wood. And lastly, currency had a negative impact of 4%, bringing net sales to SEK 5.15 billion.

Moving on to the EBITDA bridge, starting to the left, price/mix had a negative impact of SEK 229 million and higher volumes had a positive impact of SEK 32 million. High cost for raw materials had a negative impact of SEK 154 million, with a positive impact from energy of SEK 21 million, a negative impact from currency of SEK 204 million, and lastly, with a negative impact from planned maintenance stops and higher distribution costs. In total, EBITDA decreased to SEK 1.3 billion, corresponding to a margin of 25%.

Looking at the cash flow, operating cash flow decreased to SEK 446 million for the quarter and SEK 1 billion for the first half year. And as you know, other operating cash flow relates mostly to working capital currency hedges and should therefore be seen together with changes in working capital.

Look at the balance sheet. The value in forest assets totaled SEK 104 billion, working capital decreased to SEK 5.1 billion, capital employed totaled SEK 112 billion and net debt stood at SEK 11 billion. Equity totaled SEK 101 billion and net debt to equity was 11%. And we have now almost finalized our large ongoing investment projects.

Thank you. With that, I hand back to you, Ulf.

Thank you for that, Andreas. And I mean, to summarize the second quarter, I mean, we can state that the market is still in general, rather weak, but we increased the result in the second quarter in comparison with the first quarter. And by that, as we said already in the first quarter, I guess that we have increased the bottom now. And we have also, during the quarter, performed rather big planned maintenance stop in Obbola.

The market is a little bit different in different segments. Pulp solid wood products, I mean, more sideways, we can expect lower raw material prices in this third and fourth quarter. Energy, record results. Containerboard, well. We know now that we have done substantial price increases, and we will see the impact from those in the second half of this year. And the main focus for SCA for us now is really cash flow.

So by that, I think I open up for questions.

[Operator Instructions] And our first question is from Linus Larsson from SEB.

Ulf, you were entirely correct in calling the trough in the first quarter. Now we're seeing a stronger second quarter. Are you also seeing a sequentially stronger third quarter? That's my first question.

And then also if you could add maybe some color on your order inflow, your order book as of now? What are you seeing? What kind of tendencies are there in the market? You mentioned some improvements in Containerboard, for instance. Any more on the order book situation would be very helpful.

Yes. Linus. And typically, we don't do forecast. But yes, I think that Q3 will be a little bit stronger than Q2. That's my thinking. And why? Well, you talked about the order inflow. And I mean, again, we've talked about Pulp, and it is little bit disappointing that we are still going sideways in the Pulp business. On the other hand, we now see some closures. Canfor closed mill -- announced that they will close 1 mill. The announcement came last week, and we also see that we have curtailment, not the least on the Finnish side and so on.

Solid wood products. I guess, where -- it's a rather balanced supply-demand situation. And as I said, I mean, the inventory level for SCA is on the mid- to low side. So we are pretty confident with that. In containerboard, we feel rather strong markets. And the question is, of course, if it's caused by prebuying or if it's a real demand. I start to think that we see an okay demand now for coming quarters, and we feel that the order inflow is quite good. And in combination with that, we also know that ourselves, but also other companies, we will start to perform rather big planned maintenance stops now both in the Pulp and Containerboard business. So I'm cautiously positive for the autumn.

That's great to hear. And then maybe if I can pick up on what you said on the Canfor closure. I mean are you already seeing some dynamics in customer behavior markets? Or is it still too early? I mean the closure hasn't yet taken place. So is that still to come? Or is that already affecting sentiment?

As you say, I mean, it's very early, but we saw the futures in China, they went up $20 immediately. So I mean, of course, if this situation remains, I mean, then we will see further closures and curtailments taken. So I mean, sooner or later, we will come to some kind of balanced suply-demand balance. And I think we are closer to that point now.

Great. And then maybe one final one for me on the variable cost side. What are you expecting for the third quarter compared to the second quarter? You mentioned log costs coming down. I think what about out Pulpwood. Did you also mention that? Is that also a tailwind? And are you also seeing some headwinds from what's going on in oil markets, et cetera? And what is net of all those variable costs sequentially?

Yes. If we start with the wood cost, we saw that the wood cost went down in Q2 compared to Q1 with around 2% to 3% and we expect both Pulpwood and sawlogs to continue to go down in Q3, maybe roughly speaking, another 3% to 5%, and then we expect it to go expect go down further in Q4.

In terms of chemicals, hey went up a bit in Q2 compared to Q1. We expect them to be fairly flat, but, of course, it depends on the oil price. OCC, as Ulf mentioned, they have been slightly increasing and they could increase a bit further. And in terms of oil costs, it's hard to say. I mean, it went up, of course, in Q2 compared to Q1 quite a lot and then it went down and now it's gone up again. So that we'll have to watch and see. But net, of course, the wood cost is our biggest cost, so that will be a lower cost we expect in Q3 compared to Q2.

That's very helpful. And you said 3% to 5%, is that for the aggregate of pulpwood and sawlogs? Or how should I understand that?

Yes.

Our next question is from Gabriel Simoes of Goldman Sachs.

So my first one would be on the Containerboard prices. So earlier this week, you saw an announcement of a new conversion from newsprint to testliner. And even though actually late last week, right, even though costs are up, and prices have been following the cost increases, do you think the additional capacity coming online in the coming months could lead to a weakening of the current market momentum? Given the tighter kraftliner market at the moment, would you expect the premium for kraftliner versus testliner to be higher than what it was historically? So that's the first question.

And the second question will be on the Pulp market. So we've been observing lower softwood prices in China, which are only starting to translate into lower prices in Europe as well. And I just wanted to understand if you're experiencing some additional weakness in demand in your sales in Europe. And as we've seen other Nordic players announcing curtailments as well, on top of the Canfor closure that you mentioned, is that something you've also considered to try and improve the market balance?

And then finally, still on this topic, like with the ongoing substitution that we see from softwood to hardwood pulp, how much capacity do you estimate would need to be closed to rebalance the softwood market here? Because you mentioned the Canfor closure spin as a step in the right direction, but I wanted to gauge your understanding of how much more would be needed.

Okay. Now we have 3 questions, but I'll try to remember the first one, and that was what will happen in the Containerboard market. And as you said, I mean we are already today at the historical high delta between kraftliner and testliner. And we feel a strong demand for kraftliner as it just now. And I don't believe that you can -- I mean, we know that you cannot substitute everything because if that would have been possible, then it would have been done already with the price delta that you have today around SEK 280 million. So that is on the historical high level.

Can it be further? Can it be more? I'm not sure. Let's see. We feel that a lot of capacity is taken out already in kraftliner, not least in the U.S., 3 million, 4 million tonnes. And that has created some good space for kraftliner. And we also know that you have substantial oversupply of testliner in the market. And yes, we will be surprised, I guess, all of us to see another conversion from publication paper over to testliner. But I guess, we will also see some closures that they will not be announced in forwards. I mean -- of course, they will come and sooner or later, you will find some kind of balance. So no, I feel that the Containerboard market, kraftliner market is strong as now. And I guess that we can look forward to the price increases announced already that they through in the second half of this year. If we can get more, it's too early to say.

The second one was Pulp. And again, what we have seen just now short term is maybe substitution from hardwood over to softwood. So we have felt a little bit stronger demand in the softwood business. Nevertheless, now we have seen that hardwood prices, they come down a bit. And as I said, the market is small or less sideways in Pulp for the moment being.

We have seen some announcements of closures and curtailments. We have not announced anything. And as we are -- I mean, we have a rather stable situation. We have a new mill in Östrand, highly efficient and a rather strong cash cost position. So we have no plans for curtailments in Östrand.

And the third question, what was that? You have to repeat that one.

And the third question was basically how much capacity do you think would still need to shut down for the market to actually go to its balanced levels?

It's hard to say. I mean it's more a question of demand. I guess long term, we believe that softwood pulp will be scarce resource. I mean, I think the problem will be the raw material supply to softwood. So we believe strongly in the softwood pulp market. And it's hard to say. I've heard some figures, 300,000 tonnes or something like that, that we should take away from inventory levels now to get the balance, might be a little bit more, might be a little bit less. So let's see what we will face now in the coming quarters. But I mean, as you can see now when you have those curtailments taken, I mean, that's a clear message that we have reached the bottom. I mean, some producers, they cannot manage this price level.

And as Ulf mentioned before, we see also large maintenance stops usually during the autumn and including ourselves, we have a large maintenance stop at Pulp beginning in the end of Q3 and in the beginning of Q4.

Ioannis Masvoulas from Morgan Stanley.

A few questions from my side. I'll take them one at a time. Starting with the Pulp business, you just mentioned, Ulf, that you wouldn't consider any capacity changes on your side, especially at the restaurant. How do we think about given the much more difficult CTMP market, weak pricing and overcapacity that feels more structurally challenged than Austrian. Maybe some comments would be very helpful.

Again, I mean, you're absolutely right. I mean in CTMP, we have already -- we have taken curtailments during the spring, and we will continue to take curtailments if that's needed. I mean we have no margin when we produce for Asia while we have rather good margins when we produce for Europe. So I mean, we will not -- and also, we have, of course, a high marginal cost for wood raw materials, and we have to also keep an eye on the electricity price and so. So I mean, CTMP is a different story. And we don't run our CTMP facility at full capacity, not at all.

We usually try to take curtailment when we have high electricity prices. So then we -- it much easy for CTMP pulp -- it is easier to start and stop. So when you have high electricity prices, then we stop production for a couple of hours or a day or how long is needed and you start up again and they can close down again.

Understood. And maybe a second question on capital allocation. With strategic CapEx now winding down, what's the current thinking on potentially supporting the shares via buyback? Is there a certain level of tiering that you would consider as the balance sheet being in a good shape to support the buyback? Or is that not something you are sort of considering at this point in time?

I mean our main focus just now cash flow, of course. And as it is now, I mean, we still have a little bit to go in Obbola. Otherwise, we are more or less up running at design capacity in all other new investments. And our focus just now is to continue the ramp-up. and then, of course, that will generate a good cash flow, especially when the market is turning. And then it's more a question for the Board and our owners to decide about the capital allocation. As we've said before, I mean, we have no big projects coming up just now. So I mean, that's the case. You would like add something on the...

No. As Ulf said, we are focusing on ramping up our investments. And now our additional volumes that will be placed on the marginal markets with fairly low profitability. But once the market returns, I mean, those extra volumes will be placed in better markets. So we get effects from that. But we're focusing on ramping up our production.

And the third question on forest, where SCA traditionally has been always looking for opportunities to increase the forest ownership over time, especially when the balance sheet would allow you to do so. From today's perspective and given that the stock trades at a discount to forest NAV, would you consider selling part of your forest that is potentially not integrated with your own mills to accelerate the deleveraging path and to showcase the true value of the forest? Or is that not something that management or the Board is considering?

I mean, typically, forest and the forest resource will be a scarce resource going forward. We can be 100% sure on that. And what we are doing just now is that we sell pieces in the West, far away from the industry and also, in some cases, it's harder to run them in a, let's say, way due to different reasons. And then we try to buy the same volume close to our industry. So we try to move our forest holdings closer to the industry. But to be a net seller forest land in Sweden, I mean, that is not on the agenda.

Our next question is from Johannes Grunselius from SB1 Markets.

It's Johannes here. I have 2 questions. The first one is on the Containerboard business. I can see here that your implied sales price went up pretty nicely quarter-over-quarter. Is that a reflection of higher market prices? Or is it a combination of higher market prices and you have reduced discount on incremental volumes coming out from Obbola? That's my first question.

I think it's both that we have increased prices, but it's also a question about mix. And Andreas said earlier that if we are forced to deliver new, so to say, new volumes in overseas market, I mean, for a while now, we have had more or less no margin at all. But if we can -- and we see now an increase in demand in Europe and by that, we can also place lower volume in Europe and that will give us a better mix.

Yes, sure. Sure. Do you see a large potential here in the coming quarters? Or is this more of a long-term play, something for next year to see the big potential from this?

I think first, we will see the impact from increase, but that will come now in Q3 and also in Q4 as price increases they lag a couple of months. So that will be the main effect we will see next coming months. But then it depends on, of course, how the demand will develop. But as it is just now, we feel a rather stable demand in Europe, not the least in the retail business, but also -- that we've also heard from other reports now that the order inflow has been also in the industry quite good in many areas, and that will, of course, also benefit the kraftliner producers.

Sure. That's helpful. And the other question I have is on your Renewable Energy business. Obviously, very nice print there in the second quarter. But you also talked about high volatility. But did I get you're right that June was a good month for you in Renewable Energy? And as things looks now, can we assume that Q3 will also be sort of very, very high compared to history?

If you look at renewable energy, normally, you have a seasonally weaker quarters in Q2 and Q3 because we deliver less in our bioenergy pellets, things like that and usually have lower electricity prices. But in Q2, I mean, that was compensated with very high liquid biofuel price because of the high fuel prices. And then it depends on how the fuel prices develop in deferred quarter. But I mean, it all depends on the fuel prices. So if they stay on a high level, of course, that will benefit our Renewable Energy business. If they go down, it will be more normalized. So it depends on that development. But as you say, we had very high prices in -- both in June, but also in May and April.

Okay, okay. And it sounds like the lead times are quite shorter between liquid -- your sort of energy price and the traditional fuel prices.

Yes, it's fairly -- if you compare to our other segment, Renewable Energy then is a lower lag effect compared to Containerboard or Pulp is much quicker.

We'll now move to our next question from Martin Melbye from ABG.

A question on the forest. You indicate now that sawlogs and pulpwood will drop 3% to 5% and more for Q4. So at the end of all these price declines, where do you see like run rate EBIT for the forest going forward?

It's hard -- it depends how much the prices go down. But of course, we are 50% self-sufficient. So if prices go down, our industrial base benefits, but our forest, of course, goes down, but we net benefit from lower wood prices. But we expect that, as I said, go down 3% to 5% in Q3 and then further in Q4.

Okay. And this kraftliner price increase, how much is in Q3 and Q4 of the, say, 7% we saw in July?

The main part will be in Q3. But you have a lag effect. So you will see some of it in Q4. So it depends a little bit on what kind of structure we have in different business relations. Some is related to index, some, I mean, we negotiate and -- but the main part in Q3, and then you will see some also in Q4.

Our next question is from Francisco Ruiz from BNP Paribas.

Most of my questions has been already answered, but I have a question on if you could quantify the energy impact in this Q2 and how the delta could be in the coming quarters if there is a normalization of the oil prices at current levels?

Yes. It was a net negative as we still -- I mean, we have a net exposure, maybe 130,000 tonnes of bunker oil and diesel. At the same time, we have tall oil and the renewable energy business. But we saw a net negative. So I would say that in industrial parts, maybe net just over SEK 100 million in extra costs, something like that's very rough. But benefits renewable energy, but higher costs in forest and in the industrial operations.

We will now move to our next question from Cole Hathorn from Jefferies.

I'd just like to ask on forest valuations. I know you only update the forest valuations at the end of the year. But just like any color that you're hearing, initial thoughts on direction of travel, what you're hearing for the markets on the forest valuations. And then sticking on the theme, not necessarily forest valuations, but on sawlog and pulpwood prices being sold from the forest, what impact is higher fuel prices as well as the storm having in the third quarter? Just some color there. I know you've talked about 3% to 5% down, but just the operational challenges and how you're managing the higher fuel costs?

Yes, to start with for forest valuations, as you said, we take the 3-year average and we normally update that at the end of the year. In the Nordic Sweden, then you have a seasonally low amount of transactions during the first half of the year since the forest is covered in snow, and it takes a few months for the transaction to be registered. But what we've seen in very limited transactions is that one provider showed slightly down and the other one showed slightly up. So it's hard to say, but fairly stable.

Then in terms of sawlog and pulpwood, as I said, expected to go down with around 3% to 5% in the third quarter. Seasonally, we have a bit more forest management costs in the second quarter, but also in the third quarter.

And then on the fuel prices, we had high fuel costs in the second quarter, especially in the forest division. And depending on how the fuel prices develop, that will, of course, go down or go up. But I would say on the moving parts.

And then in terms of harvesting, we harvest seasonally a bit lower in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.

And then maybe just following up on the softwood pulp market, I mean we have seen Canfor's closure percent of supply, but inventory levels are higher than people thought at the start of the year. It has been challenging a lot of the markets under water. What needs to give here in this market? Where do we see the permanent closure coming from? Do we expect something to come out of Canada again? Or does it have to be to Europe? I mean I'm looking at Mercer now and they're almost 10% of the global softwood market and their bonds are trading at $0.60 on the dollar. So I'm just wondering where do we see the closures actually coming from in your view? What region? I know you can't talk about the specific companies.

Yes. I mean we don't like to speculate. We will not close down ourselves. That's for sure. So that's the first thing. And then we have seen a lot of closures in Canada. And I guess continue. And as you say, I mean, we have some pressure also in Europe and not the least due to high raw material costs. Again, that's one reason to keep the forest. And that will be even worse going forward. So -- but sooner or later, the market will find its balance and then...

And also, I mean, closures, but also the demand, if you look at the shipments so far this year in both the U.S. and Europe, they have been fairly low. So you need the market also to normalize. I think that will have the biggest impact.

Yes.

And then maybe just last one, if you allow me on kraftliner. You've talked about better mix kind of bringing back some odd export volumes back into Europe. Can you just talk about how the lower exports from the U.S. impacted the European market? Are we seeing that now and that's one of the reasons why kraftliner has been tighter. Just wondering your thoughts there.

I mean, it's hard to say how much -- what kind of impact it has had. But of course, it has an impact definitely. So I mean that is one reason for the Containerboard market to be strong, definitely.

We'll now take our next question from Detlef Winckelmann from JPMorgan.

Maybe just following on from Cole's question a little bit earlier. We are seeing -- obviously, you mentioned pulpwood sawlog costs going down 3% to 5% in Q3 and a bit more in Q4. But that obviously is more of the lag effect coming through. My question is more, we're seeing fuel costs now going up. Are we seeing any -- and let's assume that they stay at these levels, are we starting to see any sawlog or pulpwood price increases in the spot markets that would then impact you going forward into Q1, Q2 2027?

It's hard to say. As it is just now, it is a rather stable market. I mean, we -- continuously, we buy on stumpage and we buy at a certain lower level today than we did in the past. And also in the SA region, I mean, we are still very impacted by the storm that we had between Christmas and New Year. So I mean, it's good availability of wood in mid-North Sweden for the moment being. So it's hard to predict what kind of development we will have in the raw material market. It depends also, of course, on the development for end products. like to add something, Andreas?

No, as Ulf mentioned, you had the storm effect and then what's going to happen when that eases out. I mean it's hard to predict.

It's rather easy for us to buy wood on stumpage as it is just now. And it's more -- it's not easy to -- we cannot buy too much as we also -- we are heavily involved in the storm area, and we try to help our suppliers now to clear out the situation in that region.

Our next question is from Oskar Lindstrom from Danske Bank.

I have a couple of questions. I'll take them one by one. The first one is on the harvesting levels. Your own harvesting was down 7% H1 year-on-year. And what kind of development should we expect for H2? And what's sort of a normalized harvesting level that you expect for next year? That's my first question.

For this year, we expect a slightly lower harvesting level in comparison with last year. And the main reason is that we -- as I said, I mean, we try to do what we can now to help forest owners in the region impacted by the storm. So it's more a resource issue. And so I think we will harvest slightly less this year in comparison with last year.

Yes. And H1, H2, I don't know it was fairly similar H2 as H1.

All right. And next year, then we should see an increase in harvesting levels?

I mean we will be around 5 million, 5.5 million cubic meters. That is the level we have had.

Yes. All right. My second question is on gas prices in Continental Europe, and they moved up or they're fairly high for this time of the year. And you noted that the kraftliner, testliner price delta is at a historical high. I think it's around SEK 280 million you mentioned. Are these sort of elevated energy costs starting to pressure testliner producers enough to low capacity additions and sort of force them to increase prices or not yet?

I think the major curtailments stake is now in testliner. I mean they are not in testliner, so we cannot be sure. But I mean, substantial volumes are curtailed now in test. And I guess it's a chicken race. I mean we have seen many conversions, and we have the latest one announced yesterday in U.K. and which is maybe a little bit surprising, at least for me. But maybe the judgment is, of course, that it's better to be in testliner in comparison with publication paper long term. So that's the reason for it. But I mean, with the OCC price level you have just now with gas prices being where they are just now, substantial curtailments must be taken. And I guess also we will see substantial closures going forward. And I mean, definitely, they should need a price increase also for testliner, but I guess they are afraid of leaving customers in Europe because the alternative is even worse. So that's the situation now.

And then my third and final question is on log supply to sawmills. I mean Germany and Central Europe have historically had surplus log supply from bark beetle and storm damage. I mean, I guess that is now over or at least winding down. Are you seeing any shift in that dynamic heading into H2 that Continental log availability as a sort of a read-through to Swedish pricing for your sawn timber? Is it impacting the sawn timber market? And should we expect that to be a factor in H2 or in next year? Your thoughts on that, please.

I mean, as you say, I mean, as I said before, I think we will see the solid wood products market, that one will go sideways. And -- but at the same time, we will reduce -- decrease the log prices and by that a little bit higher margin in coming quarters. Long term, I guess you will have -- again, it will be scarce resource coming to raw material supply, not the least in Central Europe, not the least due to the spruce sped disease that we have seen. And that will, of course, impact log prices and also pulpwood prices in that region. And I guess as it is just now, I mean, you see a big price delta today between spruce and pine, which is -- has not been seen before. But if I remember right, I think we had SEK 300 higher prices for spruce as an average in comparison with pine.

And the reason for that is, of course, that it's not easy to get access to -- not the least to high-quality spruce products as it is just now. So we have definitely a stronger market for spruce products in comparison with pine products as it is just now. Long term, I think it will be a problem to get access to raw material, and that goes for both sawlogs and also for pulpwood. And that's the reason also why we stick to the forest. We believe that will be a really important asset to have going forward.

Our next question is from Pallav Mittal from Barclays.

All my questions have been answered. So just one remaining on wood. In your comments, you did mention that the European wood demand is normal as you see and customer inventories are now low. But clearly, the EBITDA for the Wood segment is down meaningfully. So what do you think needs to change for this -- for the earnings to recover in the wood segment? And are you seeing anything different in your repair and remodel exposure versus new construction?

As I said, I mean, it is a sideways market. And I think it will be so both Q3, Q4 and typically, you also have a sideways market in Q1. So I mean, to see some substantial changes will, I guess, second quarter next year, typically. But again, as solar prices will come down, the margin for this business will increase during the second half of this year. So -- but I mean, underlying demand is -- you must find a good balance. That is, of course, the key. And it depends on many different things, of course. I don't know if that was the answer or...

Sure. Just to follow up on that. I think you earlier said that selling prices probably will remain unchanged in Q3, given that you're talking of a very stable demand and raw material costs coming down, so should we expect selling prices probably declining in Q4 and start of next year?

We don't do forecast, and it's hard to say. But as we believe just now, it will be a stable market and prices will be on a stable level and raw material prices will come down. And by that, the margin will increase. And the best guess we can do just now is that we will have the same situation now for Q3, Q4, at least.

[Operator Instructions] It appears there are currently no further questions at this time. With this, I'd like to kind of go back to the management team for any additional or closing remarks.

That concludes our presentation of the half year and second quarter report. Welcome back in October for our third quarter report. Thank you for dialing in.

Good morning, and welcome to this presentation of SCA's 2026 First Quarter Report. With me here today, I have President and CEO, Ulf Larsson; and CFO, Andreas Ewertz, to go through the results and take your questions. Over to you, Ulf.

Thank you for that, Anders. And also from my side, a very good morning. So despite the increase in costs and the continued challenging market for forest Industrial Products, we delivered SEK 1.1 billion on EBITDA level and by debt to EBITDA margin of 23% for the first quarter.

Segment Renewable Energy had a record high result during the first quarter, and that was driven by electricity prices, strong deliveries and also a very good market for liquid biofuels. Our new wind farm located in Jamtland, started operations during the quarter and contributed to a high profitability within the segment. And our high degree of self-sufficiency in strategic areas continue to be an important factor to mitigate higher costs, partly offsetting higher wood raw material and energy costs.

Turning over to some financial KPIs for the first quarter. As already said, our EBITDA reached SEK 1.1 billion, and that corresponds to a 23% (sic) [ 23.4% ] EBITDA margin. Our industrial return on capital employed came out on 2% accounted for the last 12 months, and the leverage was 2, while our net debt to equity reached 11.9%.

So -- and I will now make some comments for each segment, starting with Forest. Stable harvesting levels from our own forest have contributed to balanced supply of wood raw materials to our industries during the period. We have seen a long-term trend of increasing solar prices, and they continued up also in the first quarter. However, availability of sawlogs has increased towards the end of the quarter due to the big storm, and that will also gradually reduce prices coming quarters.

Regarding pulpwood prices, they have been rather flat for a couple of quarters, and now they have started to come down. When we compare the first quarter '26 with the first quarter '25, sales were up 2%, while EBITDA was up 1%, mainly due to higher prices for wood raw materials.

Over to solid wood products. And in general, we still have a slow underlying market for solid wood products. We continue to note signs of improvement in the repair and remodeling segment, and we also see a decreased production in Scandinavia and Germany generating a better supply and demand balance, especially for Spruce. Stock levels remain on the high side among producers for pine but are on normal levels for spruce. And stock levels at customers continue to be on the low side. Delivery volumes were lower in Q1 '26 in comparison with the first quarter of '25, but first quarter '25 was an exceptionally strong quarter.

SCA stock level of is currently on a very balanced level. The price for solid wood products increased by a bit less than 4% in the first quarter of '26 in comparison with the fourth quarter of '25. And this development is in line with what I said when we presented the report for the fourth quarter last year. Sales were 13% lower in comparison with the same quarter last year. EBITDA margin decreased from 16% to 4% due to higher raw material costs, lower deliveries and a negative currency effect.

Today's stock level of solid wood products in Sweden and Finland is described at the top left on this slide and is shown in relation to the average for the last 5 years. As mentioned earlier, we note that the inventory level is on the high side, especially for pine, while the SCA inventory level is balanced. As can be seen in the diagram to the bottom left, the Swedish and Finnish sawmill production has been lower than average in the beginning of '26.

And in the diagram to the top right, we can note that the export price index decreased in the first quarter, SCA's prices, however, increased due to a better mix.

Going into the next quarter, I estimate that prices to the -- in the market will increase. On the other hand, increase in freight costs will have a negative effect, resulting in a slight net price increase for SCA. Looking forward, we will probably see a stable development going into autumn with an okay balance between supply and demand.

Over to pulp. When comparing the first quarter '26 with Q1 '25, sales were down 16%, mainly due to lower prices and a negative currency effect. EBITDA was down 88%, which was also driven by lower prices and negative currency effects. During the third and fourth quarters of '25, demand for NBSK pulp was rather weak, and prices were stable at low levels. Net prices on NBSK then decreased further in the first quarter '26, very much due to the higher rebates in Europe and U.S.

At the same time, gross prices increased in Europe and U.S. despite weak demand. In China, demand for NBSK pulp was on a normal level during the first quarter, but prices remained low. The conflict in Middle East is adding complexity in the pulp market, and it also increases the cost pressure.

Looking at CTMP, demand was very low in January and February, and prices were at the bottom. However, during March, we saw an improvement in demand and prices started to increase. Inventories of NBSK were on a high level during the first quarter. Hardwood inventories on the contrary were below average level. Finally, CTMP inventories have been on a rather normal level.

Moving over to containerboard. Sales were up 4% in Q1 in comparison with the same period last year, driven by higher delivery volumes somewhat mitigated by lower prices and a negative currency effect. EBITDA was down by 6%, driven by lower prices, negative currency effect and higher energy costs. We have noted a rather soft box demand during the start of the first quarter, but it has since then developed in a cautious positive direction. The retail business remains a positive driver, and we have also seen the manufacturing industry recovering in the beginning of the year.

European demand of containerboard has been moving sideways during the first quarter, in line with the box demand. There is no new containerboard capacity expected to start up in the first half of '26, although we can expect the ramp-up effect of new capacity started in '25 with the vast majority coming in testliner. Kraftliner inventories remain above historical leverage in Q1, as you can see in the graph. During the first quarter, the availability of OCC has been in balance with supply and demand, which in its turn, has led to stable prices in the first quarter.

Prices for brown kraftliner in Central Europe as during the first quarter decreased to EUR 25 per tonne and for white kraftliner with EUR 20 per tonne. Anyway, we now feel a more solid underlying demand in combination with strong cost pressure. And due to that, we have implemented a price increase of EUR 60 per tonne for brown kraftliner and EUR 40 per tonne for white kraftliner from the 1st of April.

Finally, I will say some words about renewable energy. And in the segment, we have had a strong quarter compared to the same period last year. and maybe the strongest quarter ever. And that is, of course, mainly due to higher production and stronger margins in our -- with [ SD-WAN ] jointly owned by refinery in Gothenburg. In addition, we have also had a positive impact from our new wind farm in the country of Jamtland. Electricity prices were high during the quarter, which had a positive impact in our wind business. Our new wind farm Fasikan was taken over in time and on budget and has been ramping up production during the quarter.

The sales land lease business is stable at 10.6 terawatt hours according to plan. And this is, as I said before, equal to 20% of installed capacity of wind power in Sweden. The market and price for solid biofuels were strong due to cold weather during the first quarter. Anyway, the positive effect was mainly offset by higher costs for raw materials compared to same quarter last year. For liquid biofuels, we have seen continuous higher margins compared to previous quarters.

The main reasons are the implementation of RED III across European countries as well as strengthen control mechanism regarding important products and feedstocks. In March, we also see additional price increases due to the situation in the Middle East. We expect market volatility in renewable fuels to remain high as Europe ramps up the blending mandates both in HVO and SAF.

And with that, Andreas, I hand over to you.

Thank you Ulf, and good morning, everybody. I'll start off with the income statement for the first quarter. Net sales decreased 8% to SEK 4.7 billion, driven by lower prices and negative currency effects. EBITDA decreased 33% to SEK 1.1 billion, driven by lower prices, negative currency minus SEK 86 million. Starting with the Forest segment to the left. Net sales were in line with the previous quarter at SEK 2.5 billion. Higher prices for sawlogs were offset by lower delivery volumes to SCA Industries. EBITDA decreased slightly to SEK 884 million due to seasonally lower harvest from SCA's own forest compared to the previous quarter, which was offset by higher prices for sawlogs.

In Wood, prices were slightly higher compared to the previous quarter. Net sales decreased to SEK 1.3 billion due to lower delivery volumes. EBITDA decreased to SEK 49 million, corresponding to a margin of 4%. High cost for wood raw materials and lower delivery volumes were partly offset by higher prices. In pulp, Net sales decreased to SEK 1.6 billion compared to the previous quarter, while EBITDA increased to SEK 40 million, corresponding to a margin of 3%. Lower cost for planned maintenance stops were offset by negative currency effects and lower prices.

In the quarter, we took market-related downtime in our CTMP mill due to high electricity prices. In Containerboard, net sales were in line with the previous quarter at SEK 1.7 billion. EBITDA decreased to SEK 104 million, corresponding to a margin of 6%. Lower prices, negative currency effects and higher energy costs were partly offset by lower costs for raw materials and higher delivery volumes. Renewable Energy with a record quarter EBITDA increased to SEK 206 million, corresponding to a margin of 31%. The increase was driven by higher electricity prices, the new Fasken wind mill and high results in liquid biofuels.

On the next slide, we have the sales bridge between Q1 last year and Q1 this year. Prices decreased 4%, with lower prices in pulp and containerboard, partly offset by somewhat higher prices in wood. Volumes were flat with higher volumes in containerboard, but lower in wood. And lastly, currency had a negative impact of 4%, bringing net sales to SEK 4.7 billion.

Moving on to EBITDA bridge. Starting to the left, price/mix and a negative impact of SEK 255 million. Higher costs from any wood raw materials had a negative impact of SEK 111 million with a positive impact from energy of SEK 34 million and a negative impact from currency of SEK 203 million. In total, EBITDA decreased to SEK 1.1 billion, corresponding to a margin of 23%.

Looking at the cash flow. We had an operating cash flow of SEK 569 million in the quarter. And as you know, altered operating cash flow relates mostly to working capital currency hedges and to, therefore, be seen together with changes in working capital.

Look at the balance sheet. The value of forest asset totaled SEK 104 billion. Working capital decreased to SEK 5 billion, capital employed, totaled SEK 112 billion. The debt stood at SEK 12 billion and equity totaled SEK 100 billion, corresponding to a net debt to equity of 12%, and we are now almost finalized our large ongoing investment projects.

Thank you. With that, I'll hand back to you Ulf.

Thank you, Andreas. And just to summarize, I mean, we have had a challenging first quarter. I think we have controlled what we can control in a good way. We see a positive effect from the ramp-up of our big strategic investments, and we are looking forward to the time when we can move over those extra volumes to our main market in Europe and the margin that can create. We have also started up our new wind farm outside Ostrand back in Jamtland and the project was done in -- on time and in budget.

So by that, I think we open up for questions.

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from Ioannis Masvoulas of Morgan Stanley.

Three questions from my side. I'll take them 1 at a time, if that's okay. First, on Containerboard. So you're starting from a fairly depressed EBITDA margin level in Q1. And going into the second quarter, you should be benefiting from lower fiber costs as well as lower power costs. How about other input costs around logistics, chemicals, et cetera. Just trying to understand the overall development into the second quarter on the cost side? And then related to that, is it fair to expect another increase in kraftliner prices in May to help restore margins.

I'll start with the market and then Andreas will give you the cost perspective. And I guess, I mean, as you realized we did increase the price for kraftliner from first of -- first, we reduced the price by EUR 25 per tonne for brown kraftliner in the first quarter in '24. White top, and then from 1st of April, we have announced that we will also come through with pricing increases of EUR 60 per tonne for brown and EUR 40 per tonne for white from 1st of April. And that will stepwise be implemented in the price for the first quarter.

I guess we see no price movement in May. We haven't heard anything more from test lines producers. And I think it's fair to say that they have to start, and then I believe that kraftliner can come after. So nothing is planned for May. But if we will remain on this level when it comes to gas prices, I guess, we'll see some attempts in -- yes, later in Q2 or in the beginning of Q3. So that's my view. Then Andreas about the cost situation.

Yes. On the cost side, if we start with pulpwood. The pulpwood will continue to go down slightly in Q2, but very slightly. As we talked about earlier, we have this 6-month lag effect. So the pulp -- started wood prices will go down mainly in the second half of the year. OCC prices are fairly stable. If we look at electricity prices. They're very high in January, February. So depending how electricity prices develop. But most likely, it will be lower compared to Q1. And then in terms of transportation cost, depending on the oil price development, but oil price will, of course, affect transportation. So that's the big moving parts. .

Okay. Then the second question, can you comment about the current pulpwood prices? I know you mentioned a slight benefit in the industrial units in Q2. But just trying to understand where are we now on pulpwood prices versus the peak of 2025?

Yes. The pulpwood prices, they went down slightly in Q4, slightly in Q1, we were talking about maybe 1% to 2% down. It will continue to go down 2% in Q2. And then you get the larger effect in Q3 and in Q4 because of this lag effect.

Okay. And just a last 1 for me. You talked about the CTMP market where demand remains low same with prices. Could you give us an update on operating rates in Q1 here and your expectation for Q2? And how are you feeling about this business, given the depressed market backdrop, are you willing to run the asset? I know it's a low-cost mill, but just trying to understand how you're looking at optimizing the business here.

Well, in the first quarter, I would say that we have maybe around the CTMP mill at 50% or something like that. I mean, due to high electricity prices and also the margin cost for pulpwood. So that's the case for first quarter. And I mean CTMP has been a very bad business in the first part of this year. Now we see that the CTMP market is picking up. And I guess, 1 part which is that short fiber pulp is picking up step by step and maybe we see some kind of substitution.

I also feel that we have a better consumption by both customers, not the least. And so areas now, we are running more or less full for the moment being. Of course, we keep an eye on the electricity price. And if it's too high, then we just closed down. And -- but we are rather positive for the CTMP business in the second quarter.

And we'll now move on to our next question from Linus Larsson of SEB.

Thank you. I'll start with a follow-up on the input cost side. And if you could maybe elaborate a bit on the pulpwood cost declines that you're seeing in your wood consuming operations over the course of the next few quarters? If you could quantify in any way what you're expecting going into the second half of 2026, please?

Yes. So as I said, now we got maybe 1% down on pulpwood cost in Q1 compared to Q4, while the sawlog prices increased with around 7% in Q1 compared to Q4. In the second quarter, we set both pulpwood and sawlog prices to go down slightly, but we're talking about 1%, 2% -- maybe 3% of pulpwood and 1%, 2% on sawlogs. And then we'll see a bigger effect in Q3 and but it's hard to say exactly now because it's now we're going to -- in second quarter, then we're going to get more of these storm volumes will, of course, will help to get the price down. So we'll see, but we expect a bigger decrease in Q3 .

And then -- and I hate to ask this, but if you could maybe please help us dissect the other line, which was weaker in the first quarter? And if you could help us understand what the normalized level might be going forward? And the reason I'm asking is that this is actually where more than the entire deviation compared to consensus occurred. So if you could just help us understand that would be super helpful.

Firstly have a seasonal effect, but the biggest thing is, of course, profit in stock. So when we sell something, for example, from the Forest business to the Wood business. And the Forest segment, of course, makes a profit. But until the Wood division cells that final product, you eliminate that profit. And that's why you have this cyclicality between the dotted line between different quarters. So because of the increased prices of sawlog and a bit lower delivery volumes in our Wood segment. You have a higher other costs, but that's only prioritization between different quarters.

Great. That's really helpful. And like given what you just said, Andreas, any pointers for what to expect in the second quarter?

I think if you look at the full year, because there is partization effects, I mean, they cancel out. So if you look at the full year, then you get quite a good picture of the yearly other costs.

Sorry, what do you mean? The -- if I look at the past couple of years, that.

Yes, yes, exactly. The past year.

And we'll now move on to our next question from Robin Santavirta of DNB Carnegie.

Now in terms of the new lease prices, you mentioned in your report that it increases uncertainty and of course, the oil price is also higher and you call out this as an indirect negative. But you have high energy sales efficiency. Do you think you have a competitive advantage of the Continental European producers, especially in containerboard?

Yes. I mean, we are not dependent on Russian oil and gas or oil at all, more or less. I mean that is, of course, a positive thing. And the other thing is that we -- when it comes to distribution, I mean we used to say that we have 40% degree of self efficiency due to the fact that we now produce liquid biofuels in Gothenburg and our part, I mean, count for around 40% coverage on the total cost. So that is, of course, very positive. And as you could see also in this quarter, we -- I think we did the strongest quarter ever for renewable energy. And a big part of that was, of course, liquid biofuels.

Right. And then also related to containerboard from what I hear from not only you but from other companies in the market side, it seems demand has increased quite significantly in March and April, and it's certainly in containerboard grades in Europe. And the start of the year was much slower. What explains the pickup in demand? Is this just pre-buying before prices go up? Or are there other dynamics in play?

It's hard to say really -- I think 1 thing can be that you have -- I mean, I guess, people they are they are securing the raw material supply in different areas due to the geopolitical situations. So that might be 1 thing. But we also feel that I mean the retail sector has been quite good for a while, and now we feel also that the industrial customers, they are coming back. And I mean, not the least today, I mean we have seen some reports and also yesterday from some companies. And I mean, they all say that the order inflow is quite strong and also from the more heavy industry, which have that will have a good impact also on our kraftliner business.

So yes, the level -- and I mean we all know that we have a lot of testliner capacity out there, curtail just now, I guess. And on the other side, if we will -- if gas prices will remain on this level, there is still I guess many of them, they lose money. So I guess we will see -- it's a mix between supply-demand and cost pressure and so on. But I guess we can we might see some further price increases coming into the autumn.

I understand. Finally, just on saw timber, I mean this market, of course, is tricky. But when I look at log prices in Europe and when I speak to companies there, they complain about scarcity that are much higher than you have in the upper parts of Sweden. Why wouldn't you sort of how bad waters even in this environment. But could it be a sense of you basically do not need the construction market to come back still get higher prices? Or is there something I'm missing the mismatch or so on prices in Europe versus other parts of Sweden.

I don't know if I fully took your question, but you talked about price deviation from Northern -- Southern part of Sweden.

mean they are paying 2x more for saw.

No, no, they don't. No, no -- they don't. And I think that's a misunderstanding. No. I mean you look at public price lists and that is, of course, not -- that is, of course, not the price in the market. So, I guess, when we do some comparisons, I mean, you don't -- it doesn't really differ too much. And also when it comes to log size, I mean the log is much more narrow in the Northern part in comparison with the Southern. So we are -- yes, we are favored.

So the price is roughly the same.

Maybe not the same, but not -- it's not -- as you say, I mean, it's not the double price -- of course, now with -- now you have the storm effect and we haven't seen really the result out of that. You see a big difference between spruce logs and pine. You -- we see also in the end market that now we have a deviation for sold goods by SEK 300 per cubic meter more or less if you compare spruce and pine to the advantage of spruce, of course. And I guess that's a result of the spruce beetle effect that we had in Central Europe a couple of years ago. So I mean they have a deficit of spruce logs.

So it's a more complex market than that. And you cannot really look at official price list. That's my clear message. You have to -- because what we buy in the market is something completely different in many cases where you have ad premiums and things like that.

And we'll now take our next question from Johannes Grunselius from SB1 Markets.

It's Johannes here. I have 2 questions. I would like to zoom in on your energy business and the containerboard business. So on energy, you said it already off, but you had a nice tailwind from higher biofuels. So I was wondering if you could give -- provide some color on what that means. I think your earnings delta were like SEK 60 million Q1 versus Q4. How much did biofuels supported that earnings growth? .

Yes.

I can first start with the production. I mean, we are also in the ramp-up phase with by refinery in Gothenburg. And that is the first thing. We have had record production in that unit, and we are far above design capacity. So that is very positive thing, of course. And then in addition to that, of course, we have had a very good price development. And then Andreas, you can.

Yes. So if you look in Q4 compared to Q1 the solid biomass pellets and unrefined fuels basically had the same profitability in Q4 as in Q1. So the increase comes from -- roughly half from the wind segment and roughly half from the biofuel business, roughly speaking. .

Okay. But -- but what you're saying, it's more of a ramp-up benefits, not sort of pricing benefits. And could you comment on Q2, how we should think about the pricing effect here coming from higher prices.

Both. We got both a higher margin in the biofuel business compared to Q4 as well as good production and we'll have to see how for energy, I mean by -- if fuels continue to be high, that, of course, will benefit our fuels business. But then, of course, Q2 is a weaker market for our Solid Biomass segment compared -- and Wind compared to Q1. .

Got you. And then on containerboard, if you could elaborate a bit on basically operations and also the mix because I assume you still in sort of a ramp-up phase in Ebola. So do you foresee sort of tangible benefits from more efficient operations in the coming quarters and also benefits from more commercial mix, if you can elaborate on that one, please.

I mean, step by step, I mean, we produce more in Noble by that, we also will be -- if you count the per tonne, I mean, then you will be more also cost efficient. And first, the volume and then we fine-tune the cost level. And this year, as we've said before, I mean, we will probably produce around 100,000 tonnes more in '26 in comparison with '25. And step-by-step, we will be more and more cost efficient. So that is 1 thing. But as you say, I mean, all surplus volumes today, I mean, they are placed in overseas market and the margin is completely different if you have to place those volumes in -- yes, in Asia or U.S. or South America or wherever. So I mean when the market comes back in Europe, that will, of course, improve the margin quite a lot, I would say.

And we'll now take our next question from Gabriel Simoes of Goldman Sachs.

So I have 2. The first one, they're both on the forestry side, but the first 1 is related to your forestry -- still culture cost in the first quarter, which are usually lower. But then I would expect some of that to come back in the second quarter, right? So overall, if you could guide us towards the level of expected profitability on per cubic meter basis for wood harvested maybe excluding the revaluation of course, for the remainder of the year and for the second quarter, specifically, that would be very helpful. And then a longer term more and more strategic question here would be basically on the valuation of these forest, right? So the company now trades at a significant discount to the book value of the forest. And I just wanted to pick your brains on whether this is something that bothers you? And if there are any measures to try and unlock some of that value of these forests.

Yes, I can start with the seasonality of the forest. I won't go into exact figures, but just to get some flavor. And as you know, we harvest seasonally more from our own forest in Q2 compared to Q1. So that's a net benefit. Then you're absolutely right that in Q2 and Q3, especially, we have our fertilization and civil cost because it's then we replanned, we do this fertilization. And that's maybe roughly speaking, what can be SEK 50 million to SEK 80 million per quarter in Q2 and in Q3. And then, of course, we will see how higher oil prices, of course, will also affect our -- the transportation and harvesting business. So on the plus side, we harvest more from our own forest will have slightly lower prices. and we will have higher seasonal costs for silviculture and fertilization.

And then when it comes to the valuation of the forest and if you plan something to unlock the hidden value of the forest. I mean, recently, and I mean, they show that the book value is also the market value. And I mean, we trust you have to like that and see opportunities when you have them. And I guess we will -- we are looking forward to what's going to happen now when Stora Enso will split, of course, and that might have an impact on the view of the price of the forest.

Otherwise, I mean, we are following continuously the market for -- I mean, the local market for -- when you buy and sell forestry states, and we can see that we are more or less on the same level as before. So I mean, nothing has changed.

And we'll now move on to our next question from Oskar Lindstrom of Danske Bank.

Reset some questions from Danske Bank here. First off, I'm just very curious or sort of higher oil prices and talk of possible aviation fuel shortages in Europe, creating a greater interest from you or from others in your aviation fuel project in my refinery in Essen. So that's my first question. .

Yes. I mean, I should say, just now, it is good profitability in the Biorefinery in Gothenburg. And by that, you can say that conditions for the same projects should also be very good. And I guess they are -- but that is, of course, a much bigger bet. And as we have also said, this market will be very volatile, and it's also very capital intensive. And I guess if -- before you start a big project like that, you need to have some security when it comes to some kind of offtake agreement or at least the price level for -- so long term, I mean you can talk about resilience and degree of self-sufficiency and things like that, both in the union, but also in Sweden, will that come? We don't know.

And the tricky thing, I guess, with these kind of projects is that -- always the political risk. I mean we are used to take the technical risk, the project risk and we can handle that. But the challenge is really the political risk. Will something change when we have a new government in place, both in Sweden and in the union and what kind of impact will that have? And that will, of course, it's more challenging to raise the money needed for such a big projects. But follow up on that.

I mean, would you be open to doing that as a JV.

I mean we can provide a fantastic place close nearby Ostrand also have from now the energy supply, which is really important. But maybe the most important thing, I mean, we are maybe the only player in that part of Sweden can provide with the raw materials, I mean the feedstocks. I mean, I guess we are a perfect partner in the JV, but this project is, of course, too big for us. alone. And so we have to talk with some friends if this should come through.

My second question is, I mean, continuing on that with the Middle East conflict causing disruptions as you mentioned. We hear a lot about how this is having an impact on Continental European producers, perhaps, especially on containerboard who are dependent on natural gas and oil for energy. What about sort of -- is it causing other shifts sort of that you're noticing, for example, in Asia or having impacts on the cost curve that are meaningful for you.

Yes, I don't know if we see some structure -- I mean for everyone, I mean, we see that the freight costs, I mean, they will increase depending on. into the industry and other competing materials. So it's really hard to say how this will turn out. If you will see a big restriction now when it comes to aviation and things like that, that might create the same situation as we had during the pandemic that people they will stay home and build Verandas and do a lot of work in their gardens and the houses and so also that might create some kind of a better market for solid wood products.

I mean it's hard to say and hard to speculate. We are so focused now on trying to control what we can control. And that is also something that we are very happy in the first quarter. I mean we have had good production. The cost level is good, very strong energy business. we see a positive effect of those strategic projects that we have launched. And -- but still, we are at the bottom of the business cycle just now, and let's see when it will recover.

And my third and final question is more straightforward. In the Renewable Energy division, I mean you've obviously been able to benefit here in Q1, partly from the ramp-up, of course, which will be hopefully sustainable for the rest of the year, but also from higher prices due to the situation in the Middle East. Are you able to lock in any of the higher prices through hedging or something like that? So that we get a little bit of that benefit for the rest.

We're in the business, then we don't hedge anything. I mean, that's just our self-sufficiency than exposed to spot prices. If we look at our solid biofuel business, there we say you have much more long-term stable contracts, and they have some spot volumes, but a large share is long-term contracts there are quite stable prices, while the spot, of course, that moves up and down with the market.

And with the biofuel business in there you do some contracts in advance but not very far. So I would say we are we are exposed to spot, and that's part of our strategy to be -- have a high self-sufficiency as I said, on oil around 40% self-sufficient. So then we want to have when the cost goes up, down, our renewable energy income growth was up or down as well. Some we don't have that long hedge exposure on renewable energy, more spot.

Thank you. Those were my questions. .

And we'll now take our next question from Andrew Jones of UBS.

I just got a couple questions. First of all, on containerboard, you mentioned that you got EUR 60 hike through in April, nothing expected in May. The index realized I'm curious what you're seeing from some of your competitors were some of them hiking but with a bit of a delay maybe coming through in May? Or like what explains the lower index move? And just to confirm, like are your customers in April already paying that SEK 60 million, has that been fully implemented? .

Good question. price increase from 1st of May. So what you see now in the index is the price hike from SCA. And I mean, as I would say, the major part of our business is also related to the index movements. I mean -- we will not get even 50% of this price increase in April, but we will get it in May. So that's the case. .

Yes. Okay. That makes sense. And just on the Wood Products business. I think you guided last quarter a flat price development in the first quarter, and it looks like it went up about 7% on a revenue per tonne basis. So kind of curious what changed versus your initial for process? And can you give us some guidance on how you see prices developing in the second quarter? .

Maybe you have a better memory than me. I think I said the 4%. And I think we had I'm not sure. But anyway, we had a small price increase, but the price development for sawlogs was even higher. So that's also the main reason for the profitability coming down.

[indiscernible] Gets a little bit less in other markets, so we try also to work with the mix, of course. But -- and now this quarter, we see that log prices will come down a bit. But on the other hand, I guess that 50% will be small positive effect from increasing prices and also a positive, small positive effect from decreasing log prices, I would say, in the second quarter.

And you're right. I mean we -- so we probably expected prices to be a bit more flat in Q1, but then again a larger effect in Q2. Now we've got a bit of that Q2 effect already in Q1. So I think the increase was about the same as we thought but less -- more in Q1 versus Q4, but less in Q2.

Related to what we said. But my thinking was that we should have a stronger market really in the second quarter, but that has not come through. It is much stronger for spruce than in comparison with pine. So spurce is maybe a little bit better and pine is a little bit less good, I would say. So .

Yes. That's clear. And actually, just on the freight question. You have -- I know you have some of your own vessels, I mean, obviously, that probably doesn't protect you from bunker fuel and all that sort of stuff. But I mean how does -- can you quantify the impact on your freight costs across the various divisions from what you're seeing now and maybe compared to what you think your peers might be paying, but without that self-sufficiency in vessels?

Yes to get. So on so figures you can work with. It's that I mean if you took both bunker oil, we took oil for burning and then also diesel for trucks and everything. I think our total exposure is around 130 million to 140,000 tonnes. And then we get back 50,000 tonnes is from tall oil and that's linked as the fossil price plus a green premium. So there were self-sufficient at around 40%. And then of course, custom and pellet business will be also an indirect hedge. But if we remove those, I mean, our net -- our total exposure of 130,000 to 140,000 tonnes, minus 50. That's around 80,000, 90,000 tonnes of exposure. And of course, this interact effect from pallets and [indiscernible].

Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Cole Hathorn of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

I'd just like to ask on the pulp markets for softwood pulp, in particular, what do you think is ultimately needed to bring down those inventory levels and tighten this market here? Because we've seen some kind of demand shift to the hardwood side. We've still got a lot of inventory levels in China, softwood futures have come lower. It just seems like quite a disconnected market softwood versus hardwood. So I'm just wondering what do you think needs to play out over the next few months to help balance the softwood market and ultimately support further pricing?

It's a very good question. And; I mean we are a little bit surprised ourselves. I must say, I mean, we have heard also talked about the investment in plantations in China that swing capacity is now running long fiber and so on. But honestly, I don't know really. But what we have seen is that positive price development step by step for eucalyptus pulp. And just now, I mean, you have a small delta between hardwood and softwood. So I guess that is the first sign that we will see some kind of substitution going forward.

And -- but again, when you look at inventory level, you are still on the high side for softwood and on the low side for hardwood. And also we have big producers in hardwood they have announced some curtailments. And -- but on the other hand, we have also heard that some Scandinavian producers, they also announced curtailments now. And -- but I mean, it's a short term, it's always a question about supply-demand balance. And I guess the price difference now between short and long fiber, that will help a bit. We see that on CTMP already now definitely for March, but also, I guess, coming in now in the second quarter that will help us I don't feel that we have any structural things that dramatically have changed the situation. I mean as long as something is a little bit cheaper than something else, I mean, the you try to substitute as much as you can. So I mean long term, I don't think this is a structural thing. It's more a question about supply/demand. And so let's see, but a little bit annoying, of course.

Well, hopefully, we see some capacity closures, but if I look at some of the softwood producers, there are some listed players that have seen the debt trade down. It seems like a lot of the market is really under pressure. If assets do become available, how does SCA think about M&A in that context at the right price? Or are you just comfortable staying with your business in Sweden? .

Yes. I think our -- I mean, we are an integrated forest company with the industry. And I mean I have a great respect to move into other geographies if you don't can guarantee the raw material supplies. So I think the integrated model we have today, I think, has been very profitable over time. And also in relative terms, I mean, we perform well -- and as it is just now, we have also done a lot of big strategic investments. And we will be very cautious now. We will focus on consolidate the balance sheet. And so I mean, for us, no M&As at least not short term. .

And we'll now take our last question from Pallav Mittal of Barclays. [Operator Instructions]

So firstly, just following up on oil and appreciate all the self-sufficiency and hedges that you have highlighted -- but if I just look at your transportation and distribution, it is almost 25% of your cost base. So they're roughly around SEK 4 billion, and diesel is up 30%, 35%. So how do you plan to offset that a SEK 1.5 billion cost headwind that you have. And just as a follow-up to this, are you seeing the roadside pulpwood increasing on the back of diesel costs going up?

As I said before, we have around 140,000 tonnes of exposure to bunker oil and diesel and oil in our industries. And roughly that we produce 50% to get back from a tall oil to the next closure of 80,000 to 90,000 tonnes. So of course, I think, if the price of diesel or oil goes up, I mean that we have 90,000 around roughly exposures, they can calculate the figure. And then in [indiscernible] that's the pure oil part and then transportation, I mean part of our business. I mean, we have our own roller ships. So there is only the bunker exposure. And of course, Sam, especially to U.S. and there we freight ships. And of course, then it depends on how the market for renting those or freighting those vessels move forward. But to bunker and diesel, our net exposure is around 80,000, 90,000 tonnes. .

Okay. And then just -- how should we think about your capital allocation now going forward, given the pressure on, I mean, the market and the free cash flow generation, do you think maintaining dividend is possible in this market environment?

So the CapEx, I would say that we will have around SEK 1.5 billion in current CapEx this year and then around another maybe SEK 450 million in strategic CapEx. And then in terms of capital allocation with a dividend or with share buybacks or other strategic CapEx, I think that's something for the Board, and now we're focusing investments. .

With no further questions from the line. I will now hand it back to the host for closing remarks.

And that concludes our presentation of the first quarter report, and we wish you well joining us today.

Good morning, and welcome to this presentation of SCA's 2025 Year-End Report. With me here today, I have President and CEO, Ulf Larsson; and CFO, Andreas Ewertz, to go through the results and take your questions. Over to you, Ulf.

Thank you, Anders, and also from my side, good morning, and a very warm welcome to the presentation of SCA's results for the full year and the fourth quarter 2025.

During 2025, SCA showed resilience. Despite increasing wood raw material costs, a challenging market environment and a currency headwind, we reached SEK 6.6 billion on an EBITDA level and by that an EBITDA margin of 32% for the year.

Our high degree of self-sufficiency in strategic areas continued to be an important factor to mitigate higher costs. Harvesting from our own forest increased and reached 5.4 million cubic meters during '25, partly offsetting the higher cost of wood raw materials.

SCA continued to gradually increase production in the sites where strategic investments have been made, and this has resulted in higher delivery volumes in comparison to last year, driven by the new paper machine in Obbola, the grading mill in Bollsta Sawmill, the biorefinery in Gothenburg and so on. These investments will contribute to increased productivity and cash flow generation during the upcoming years.

The book value of SCA forest assets decreased slightly compared to last year and amounted to SEK 104 billion at the end of 2025. As you already know, SCA bases the valuation of the forest on complete transactions in the region where SCA owns land.

Turning over to some financial KPIs related to the full year '25. As already said, our EBITDA reached SEK 6.6 billion for '25, which corresponds to a 32% EBITDA margin. Our industrial return on capital employed came out to 4% for the full year '25 and the leverage was at 1.7 after having finalized our big strategic investments.

The proposed dividend for the AGM to decide on is SEK 3 per share, and this is in line with our aspiration to provide a long-term stable and over time increasing dividend to our shareholders. We handed out SEK 3 per share also last year. And finally, earnings per share was SEK 4.56.

This slide will give you an overview of KPIs for the fourth quarter of '25, and our EBITDA reached SEK 1.2 billion during the fourth quarter, which gave us an EBITDA margin of 25%, driven by a negative currency effect and lower selling prices. Our net debt to equity remains on a solid level of 11%.

I will now give some comments for each segment, starting with Forest. Stable harvesting levels from our own forest have contributed to balanced supply of wood raw materials to our industries during the period. We have seen a continuous long-term trend of increasing prices for both pulpwood and sawlogs and as can be seen in the graph in the bottom left.

Regarding pulpwood, we have now passed the peak and prices have continued to come down during the quarter. Demand for sawlogs continued to be high, especially for spruce logs.

When one compares Q4 '25 with Q4 '24, sales were up 10%, while EBITDA was up 3%, mainly due to higher prices for Wood raw materials.

The storm in mid-Sweden during the end of the year had a limited impact on SCA land. We estimate that approximately 100,000 cubic meters has fallen. When we widen the scope to Sweden, we estimate that around 10 million cubic meters has fallen and the majority in Gävleborg and East Dalarna County. I guess we have also another 3 million to 4 million cubic meters in Finland.

SCA will prioritize harvesting windfall volumes to support private forest owners, and this might have a minor impact on the total level of harvesting from our own forest during 2026. Harvesting activities in windfall areas will primarily be carried out from Q2 and forward. Windfall volumes will contribute to an increased availability of wood raw materials in this region.

Over to Wood. And in general, we still have a slow underlying market for solid wood products. We continue to note signs of improvement in the repair and remodeling segment as well as a decreased production level in Germany, generating better supply and demand balance, especially for spruce.

Stock levels remain on the high side among producers for pine, but are on normal levels for spruce. Stock levels at customers continue to be on the high -- on the -- sorry, on the low side.

SCA had strong deliveries in the fourth quarter, resulting in a seasonally low stock level of sawn goods for us at the end of 2025. The price for solid wood products decreased by 5% in the fourth quarter of '25 in comparison with the third quarter same year. And this development is in line with what I said when I presented the report for the third quarter.

As expected, the cost for sawlogs has increased from the third to the fourth quarter, and we will also -- we also expect them to continue to increase going into the first quarter '26.

Sales were up 5% lower in comparison with the same quarter last year. EBITDA margin decreased from 17% to 6% due to higher raw material costs and the negative currency effect.

Today's stock level of solid wood products in Sweden and Finland is described at the top left on this slide and is shown in relation to the average for the last 5 years. As mentioned earlier, we note that the inventory level is on the high side, especially for pine, while the SCA level is seasonally low.

As can be seen in the diagram to the bottom left, the Swedish and Finnish sawmill production has been on a normal level during '25. In the diagram to the top right, we can note that the price decreased during the fourth quarter. The decrease in pine has been higher in comparison with spruce.

Coming into the next quarter, I estimate the price on average will be unchanged in comparison with the fourth quarter with a stronger tendency for spruce related to a better balance.

Going forward, we will closely monitor the market development in Continental Europe that is impacted by lower production, not the least in Germany.

So coming over to Pulp. When comparing Q4 '25 with Q4 '24, sales were down 14%, mainly due to lower prices and a negative currency effect. The negative EBITDA development was also driven by lower prices and a negative currency effect.

The cost for the planned maintenance stop in Q4 '25 was SEK 198 million compared to SEK 250 million in Q4 '24. Global demand for pulp was at a healthy level during the first quarter of '25. During the second quarter, the market changed with reduced demand and prices came under pressure much due to uncertainty related to U.S. tariffs.

During the third and fourth quarter, prices on NBSK pulp was stable at low levels. On the demand side, we saw an increased activity in China. The weakening of the U.S. dollar in relation to the Swedish krona, which started already in Q1 continued to have a negative impact on the price in SEK also in Q4.

Tariffs on NBSK pulp from the European Union to the U.S. were removed during the third quarter. This allows us to maintain a competitive offering to the U.S.

Market rebates are expected to increase by low single digits in the U.S. and mid-single digits in Europe. PIX prices are expected to start to increase to compensate for the rebate.

Looking at CTMP, prices were mostly unchanged in Europe and Asia at low levels during the fourth quarter.

Inventories of softwood pulp were on the highest level during the fourth quarter. Hardwood inventories on the contrary were on average. CTMP inventories came down during the quarter to a more normal level.

Moving over to Containerboard. Sales were up 8% in Q4 in comparison with the same period last year, driven by higher delivery volumes somewhat mitigated by lower prices and the negative currency effect. EBITDA was down by 6%, driven by lower prices and a negative currency effect.

We have seen box demand moving sideways in Q4, but still with a positive development on a year-to-date basis of around 1.5%. The retail business remains a positive driver. On the other side, we continue to see a weak European manufacturing industry, which, for the moment, has a negative impact on the demand. European demand of Containerboard has developed like the box demand and has moved sideways in the last quarter compared to Q4 '24, but with slight growth for the full year.

During Q4, we saw some closures of capacity in testliner, although not yet enough to balance the capacity started up in previous quarters. As can be seen in the graph, Kraftliner inventories remain above average level in Q4. Prices for brown kraftliner in Central Europe decreased during Q4 with EUR 20 per tonne, while white kraftliner has remained stable. We can see another negative price adjustment of EUR 20 per tonne in January. On the other hand, we now hear announcements of around EUR 100 per tonne price increase for testliner. And if that succeeds, I guess, we will have a price push also in kraftliner at the later stage.

So finally, I will say some words about Renewable Energy. And in Renewable Energy, we have had a strong quarter compared to the same period last year, mainly due to higher production and stronger margins in our -- with St1 jointly owned by refinery in Gothenburg. In addition, we have had higher production and stronger deliveries in solid biofuels.

Electricity prices continued to be low during the fourth quarter, but slightly higher than same period last year. Low electricity prices in the market impact on our wind business negatively, but is positive for SCA as a net buyer of electricity.

SCA land lease business increased to 10.6 terawatt hours according to plan. This is equal to 20% of installed capacity of wind power in Sweden. The Fasikan wind farm was taken over by SCA by the end of 2025 and is now ramping up production. And with the Fasikan adding to our current power production within the group, we increased our self-sufficiency rate to approximately 100%.

The market for solid biofuels in Northern Sweden continues to be weak but stable, and this fact increases our European export share and by that, a somewhat reduced margin. For liquid biofuels, we have seen continuous higher margins compared to previous quarters. And the main reasons for our European countries implementing RED III and better control mechanism within EU regarding imported products and feedstocks. And we expect market volatility in renewable fuels to remain high as Europe ramps up the blending mandates both in HVO and SAF.

And by that, Andreas I hand over to you.

Thank you, Ulf, and good morning, everybody. I'll start off with the forest valuation and the 3-year average price, which we used in the forest valuation to get enough transactions decreased by 4% to SEK 372 per cubic meter. The 1-year average increased slightly and the market activity during the year was on the normal level.

The valuation of SCA's forest assets decreased to SEK 104 billion in 2025. The decrease in the 3-year average price was partly offset by continued increase in standing volume to SEK 277 million cubic meters.

Biological asset increased by just below SEK 1.8 billion, driven by increasing long-term prices for raw materials and higher standing volume due to the net growth, while the value of the land decreased due to lower prices for forest land.

Prices for wood materials continue to increase. The slide shows the index price development for sawlogs and pulpwood paid by SCAs industries delivered to site. Prices are at a record high level with a continued tight market for sawlogs, especially on spruce, while the balance of pulpwood has improved.

If we move on to the income statement and focus on the full year to the right. Net sales were stable at around SEK 20 billion. Higher delivery volumes and higher prices were offset by negative currency effect. EBITDA increased 8% to just below of SEK 6.6 billion, driven by negative currency effects and higher raw material costs, which were partly offset by higher delivery volumes and somewhat higher prices.

The EBITDA margin was 32%. EBIT decreased to SEK 4.4 billion and financial items totaled minus SEK 433 million. With an effective tax rate of just below 20%, bringing net profit to SEK 3.2 billion or SEK 4.56 per share.

If we look at the fourth quarter to left, EBITDA totaled SEK 1.2 billion and was affected by a planned maintenance stop in Ostrand by SEK 198 million. Net profit for the quarter totaled SEK 485 million or SEK 0.69 per share.

Looking at the dividend. The Board has proposed a dividend of SEK 3 per share, which is unchanged from the previous year.

On the next slide, we have the financial development by segment for the full year. Starting with the Forest segment to the left. Net sales increased to just below SEK 10 billion and EBITDA increased to SEK 3.8 billion, driven by higher prices for pulpwood and sawlog and increased harvesting from SCA's own forest.

In Wood, net sales increased to SEK 6.1 billion driven by higher delivery volumes and higher prices, which was offset by negative currency effect. EBITDA increased to SEK 856 million, corresponding to margin of 14% and was negatively impacted by higher cost for sawlogs.

In Pulp, net sales decreased to SEK 7.1 billion due to lower prices and negative currency effects. EBITDA decreased to SEK 752 million corresponding to a margin of 11%. The decrease was mainly related to lower prices, negative currency effects and higher cost for pulpwood.

In Containerboard, net sales increased to SEK 7 billion, driven by higher volumes from Obbola and higher prices. EBITDA increased to SEK 1.1 billion, corresponding to a margin of 16%.

In Renewable Energy, EBITDA was stable and totaled SEK 442 million, corresponding to a margin of 22%. The market for liquid biofuels improved during the later part of the year, while electricity prices continue to be low.

Moving on to the quarter. And on the next slide, we have the sales bridge between Q4 last year and Q4 this year. Prices decreased 6% with lower prices in Pulp and Containerboard. Volumes increased by 7% due to higher volumes in mainly Containerboard but also Pulp. And lastly, currency had a negative impact of 6%, bringing net sales to SEK 4.9 billion.

Moving on to EBITDA bridge. Starting to the left, price mix, a negative impact of SEK 370 million, and higher volumes had a positive impact of SEK 77 million. High cost for raw materials had a negative impact of SEK 37 million, which was mitigated by high degrees of self-sufficiency in wood raw materials. We had a positive impact from energy of SEK 41 million and a negative impact from currency of SEK 269 million. Others was impacted by lower costs from planned maintenance stops. In total, EBITDA decreased to SEK 1.2 billion, corresponding to a margin of 25%.

Looking at the cash flow. We had an operating cash flow of SEK 3.1 billion for the year and SEK 529 million in the quarter. And as you know, other operating cash flow relates mostly to working capital currency hedges and should be seen together with changes in working capital.

Moving on to the balance sheet. The value of the forest assets decreased to SEK 104 billion, working capital decreased compared to the previous quarter but increased year-on-year to SEK 5.3 billion. In the quarter, we have increased our harvesting rights of especially spruce, sawlogs for 2026 from private forest owners, which increased both inventories and payables, but no impact on the quarter's cash flow. Capital employed decreased to SEK 112 billion and net debt totaled SEK 10.9 billion, and we have now almost finalized our large ongoing investment projects. Equity totaled SEK 102 billion and net debt-to-equity was 11%.

Thank you. With that, I'll hand back to you, Ulf.

Yes. I mean, I'll try to summarize 2025. I think we have delivered a solid result given the current market situation. When we compare 2025 with 2024, I mean, we are negatively impacted by almost SEK 1 billion related to currency and also to raw material costs. On the positive side, now I can see that our strategic investments, they have started to deliver, and it's -- it will be interesting to see when we have a turning point in the market, what kind of leverage we will get from those investments.

So by that, I think that we open up for questions.

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from Ioannis Masvoulas of Morgan Stanley.

Just two questions on storm Johannes where you've given us some very useful color. But just to get your perspective on how things develop from here, assuming we do have the additional wood supply coming into the market, shall we expect to see an acceleration in the decline in pulpwood prices? And what would it mean for solar prices that have remained stubbornly high?

And then second and related to the storm. Your costs, harvest costs were likely a bit higher in Q4 going into Q2 where you expect to focus on harvesting windfall volumes. How should we expect your harvesting costs to develop in Q2 and Q3 this year? And would that have a meaningful impact on your P&L?

Okay. If we start with the cost, I mean, as I said, not more than 100,000 cubic meters has fallen on SCA land. And of course, when you take care of that part, that will increase the cost, but that's a minor part of the harvesting we do on our own land. But for private forest owners, okay, we will have increase in costs. And typically, I mean, the forest owner has to pay for the increase in cost level. So that will be no major impact on SCA in that perspective.

When it comes to prices, I mean, as you say, for pulpwood prices, they have already start to decline, and that will step-by-step come into the accounts of companies as we have. I mean, we have a lagging effect, of course. But that will continue and maybe it will also -- yes, I mean it will not be -- pulpwood cost will not be -- that will be positively helped by the storm, that's for sure.

When it comes to sawlogs, I guess the main part of what has fallen is pine. And maybe we start to see decreasing prices for pine and that will also, I think, after a while, come also for spruce. But during the first quarter, at least for SCA, I mean we have to take care of what we bought already in the fourth and third quarter. And that means, increasing sawlog costs in the first quarter. But then I guess, we start to see some decreases also for sawlogs. But as it is just now, I guess it's an oversupply. It will be at least in the second quarter an oversupply of pulpwood while it will be a little bit more stabilized situation for sawlogs.

Okay. And sorry, just -- sorry, go on.

No, that's my view, more or less.

Very useful. And so, just one follow-up on pulpwood. What sort of cost development into your industries shall we expect for Q1 versus Q4?

Yes. On pulpwood, it's a low single-digit decline, around 2%.

But on the other hand, for sawlogs, I guess, we will have almost an 10%...

Yes, 7%, 8%.

7%, 8% price increase. And then step-by-step, we will see reducing prices.

And we'll now take our next question from Charlie Muir-Sands of BNP Paribas.

Just firstly, on currency, I know you gave the -- in the statement, you gave the average hedging rates. It looks like those are still meaningfully ahead of latest spot market rates. So as things stand, should we continue to expect, sort of, a sequential currency headwind over the next couple of quarters, I guess, particularly on the pulp segment given the movement of the dollar?

And then secondly, I'm sorry if I missed it, but have you given or can you share your thoughts on CapEx for 2026? And any early thoughts on where that might go to in 2027 as you complete wrapping up any final expansionary projects?

Yes. So, I'll start with the currency. You're absolutely right. We have -- I mean, for next year, on average, we hedge about 50% of our net currency exposure. So once those hedges goes out, of course, if the dollar stay at the same level, that will be a headwind.

And if you look at our dollar exposure, if you include the indirect FX, meaning that we might sell in SEK or euro in pulp, but the price also depends on the fixed prices in dollar. If we include that indirect effect, our dollar exposure is around USD 700 million per year.

And then on the CapEx side, our early estimate is around -- on current CapEx is around SEK 1.5 billion for next year and strategic CapEx, we have some spillover from this year to next year, suspecting that to be around SEK 400 million, maybe SEK 500 million. But after that, I mean, we have finished basically all of our strategic CapEx that we've currently decided on.

And then just briefly on pulpwood, as you've acknowledged, it's coming down. I just wondered, are you seeing at all any of your customers start to pressure you to pass those costs on in terms of lowering your prices in any of the industrial output grades?

I mean, prices are already very, very, I mean, low at the moment for our finished products. I think this lower cost will, of course, help our margins.

And we will now take our next question from Robin Santavirta of DNB Carnegie.

First question I have is related to harvesting volumes. You have nicely increased those in line with your guidance a few years ago and land at 5. 4% now in 2025. What is the best guess for 2026 and 2027? Is it roughly harvesting volumes in line with what you achieved in 2025? Or is it higher or lower? What are the key, sort of, reasons for that?

So, if we start with that one. I mean, we will -- I guess, we might see a minor decrease from our own forest as we now have to support private forest owners in our region, and we have some also agreements in place already, which is long-term good for us. I mean, we will place some of our resources in South from Sundsvall in Gävleborg and even further south to help it. I mean, 10 million cubic meter in a rather limited area, that's quite a lot and that will, of course, need some extra resources to take care of it. And we also have -- we have to fight against the time because now we had more or less 1 meter snow, which -- I mean, it's not too easy to go in there and start to do the harvesting operations.

So, I guess, we will have a peak in the second quarter and as fast as possible to avoid getting the wood destroyed, blue stain and things like that. So that might have a minor impact on the harvesting volume from our own forest -- on our own forest.

So for the full year, roughly the same or slightly lower, perhaps?

Yes. I mean, it is around this level.

All right. In terms of the European softwood pulp sales, can you shed some light on the discounts you have agreed for 2026, helping out with modeling here. And also in terms of the lease prices, where are they now at the end of January? And what's the outlook for the next month or 2 months? Just so we understand how the net price of the outlook is?

Sorry, I didn't get it. Was it pulp or was it solidwood products?

Yes, on pulp. I guess the discounts, the annual discounts for the year gone up a bit.

Yes. You're right. I mean fixed prices, they were on 1,500, and now they have started to increase. And I guess we will end up in 1,550, maybe at the end of January, and we start to -- by that start to compensate for increasing rebates. But we will, as you can calculate, we will not do it in one quarter. I guess, we will see another price increase in February. And I guess also, we will see a third price increase in March.

And at that time, I guess, we have at least compensated for increasing rebates. But that's the case. So, if you compare sequentially, if you compare Q1 with Q4, I guess we will have a lower price. We will have a lower price in Q1 in comparison with Q4. And in addition, you also have a stronger SEK against dollar, which have an impact also. That's harder to predict, but that's the case as it is just now.

And then Ulf guided previously on that the rebates in the U.S. is -- increases low single digits, while in Europe, it's mid-single digits. And that's the general market rebates.

And we'll now take our next question from Johannes of SB1 Markets.

Yes. It's Johannes. So I have two questions. The first one is on Containerboard. You did pretty well on volumes there or shipments, at least compared to my expectations. Could you share some color on that, sort of, ramp-up of volumes? And were you able to sell the new incremental volumes at market terms? Or were you -- did you have to, sort of, give hefty discounts there? If you could give some color there, please.

Yes. I mean, we are happy with the ramp-up in Obbola. And as I said also before, we are close to 600,000 tonnes in 2025, which is according to plan. So, we are -- we will continue that work also going in now to 2026. And I mean, it's more a question about mix. I mean, as it is just now with the current market situation in Europe, it's not possible to deliver the extra volume, so to say, in Europe, so that we have to find places overseas. And by that, of course, we have as it is just now substantially lower margin. But again, our main focus just now is the ramp-up. And then I guess, we are looking forward to the point when the market turns because then we will have a good leverage also from those volumes. But as it is just now, we are impacted price-wise due to the mix, geographical mix.

Okay. That's clear. My second question is more on capital allocation. And of course, this is more of a question for the Board, but I try to ask it to you, Ulf, anyway. But the sort of SCA's way of distributing cash to shareholders has always been traditional dividends. But in the light that strategic CapEx is now coming to an end and in light of the share price valuation, are you increase -- do you have, sort of, more intense discussions about share buybacks going forward? If you can elaborate on that question, please?

I mean, as you say, that's a question for our owners and the Board. And I think it was a sign of stability to keep the dividend at the level we had last year. And I mean, that's a sign of -- we believe -- I believe that we are now at the bottom of this business cycle. It's volatile, and now we are at the bottom. And also, I mean, we know that we are well prepared when the market turns. We have done big investments now, and we have ramped up them in a rather good way. And we are looking forward now to see increasing prices and then leverage from those investments. And as Andreas said, I mean, we have no big investments in plan now coming years. So I mean then, then let's see what kind of discussion we will have at that time. But for now, I mean, we are happy to deliver the same dividend as we did last year.

And we'll now take our next question from Oskar Lindstrom of Danske Bank.

Three questions from me. The first one is actually carrying on from Johannes' question a little bit here about capital allocation, but I'm not going to ask you about the share buybacks. I mean, given kind of weak markets, structural challenges and that the Energy segment, at least my book presumably is attractive as it did a few years back. Where do you see your potential to sort of structurally grow earnings in the coming years? I mean, where could you invest to drive your growth? That's my first question.

Do you want me to ask the other ones as well?

No, if -- we can take the first one first, I'm happy. I mean, again, as we said, I mean, just now, we are in a challenging market environment. As you know, we have done a lot of big investments. We will grow our volumes. We have been growing our volumes also in both '24 and '25. And I mean, just now, we are 100% focused on delivering on those investments. I mean, of course, we will come back when this is fully ramped up and when we have started to see a slightly better market and by that also a strong cash flow, then I think it's the time to come back to the development. But just now, we are so focused on, do what we have started, to finalize what we have started.

Yes, right. My second question is maybe for Andreas. Is there any impact from loss of emission rights on earnings in Q1 or for full year 2026? And if so, how much? And where have they been reported so far?

Look, we will have an impact if you look at '25 compared to '26 as now the new emission rules, ETS, is in place. That means that, if you look at our four big mills, Obbola and Ortviken will still be part of the ETS system, while Ostrand and Munksund, they are too good in their emissions. And therefore, they will strangely be removed from the system. On Ostrand, we don't have a surplus. That doesn't matter. But on Munksund mill, we will lose our emission surplus, which is about 100,000 tonnes of emission rights each year.

And then if you look historically back, publication paper, Ortviken was the biggest receiver of emission rights. But that, we divested in -- or closed down in 2020. So that had the biggest impact, but now Munksund will be removed for next year.

And if I may just ask a follow-up on the Munksund. Have you been selling those, the full sort of all the emission rights that you've been given each year? Have you sold them each year? Or have you built up a backlog? Or how should we calculate that?

We've usually -- some we sell internally to our logistics department, especially with 2025 when you have to have -- also buy emission rights for -- in the transportation sector, and the rest we have sold. So we will sell, we will lose 100,000 tonnes going forward.

So we should assume, sort of, loss of 25,000 tonnes per quarter times whatever the average price was for emission rights?

Yes. That's correct.

All right. Just a final question, if I may, on, I guess, the Wood segment. You mentioned this sort of dramatic or lower harvesting levels in the Central U.S. I presume it's as a consequence of the bark beetle infestations there. So two questions there. How dramatic is this decline in harvesting levels in Central Europe? And is there any sense that this is impacting or will impact the sort of the long-term timber and sawn timber supply for that region? Is it's the competitor that's disappearing?

Yes. I guess, I mean, we see also as it is just now, the spruce market is substantially stronger than the pine market, and that's due to the balance, I would say. And the production level in Germany has been also lower for a while now. And I guess, one part of it is that it is trickier to get access to sawlogs and, of course, when you have a tighter balance, you have to pay more. And then as it is a marginal business, I mean, then they have in some areas taking curtailment.

So the long-term effect, I mean, I don't -- typically, I guess, it will be tougher to get access to raw material in that area, especially in the Eastern part, where they were heavily hit by the spruce beetle and that is also -- I mean, long term, the estimation we've done is that we will have a strong balance for -- as a producer, we will have a strong balance for solid wood products going forward. But then, of course, it's also a volatile business. It will be impacted by the current business cycle. But we believe that solid wood products will be rather strong going forward as the material is needed, not the least.

If we shall have a chance to mitigate the climate change and so on, I mean, we have to use non-fossil products, and that will be -- that will be good, I think, for that business going forward.

And we will now take our next question from Andrew Jones of UBS.

A couple of questions. First of all, on Containerboard. Obviously, we've seen some price hikes announced by some of recycled players. I'm curious what you make of the potential for price increases in the current market given the demand situation and oversupply? I mean, is there more potential in kraftliner, maybe given the market is a bit more balanced there?

And my second question is on forest valuations. I mean, given, obviously, wood prices potentially coming down and obviously, rates going up as well. I mean, what are you seeing, hearing in your regions in Sweden in general on the sort of trends for valuations? Are you concerned about sort of more negative valuations as we go into 2026?

I'll take the Containerboard market first. I mean, as I said, I mean, we have seen now some announcements. I don't know if testliner producers, if they have come through with price increases, but they have asked for EUR 100 per tonne, and they certainly need it as I think that many testliner producers, they are bleeding just now.

Short term, we have seen gas prices coming up 35%. OCC prices still on the same level, but typically, they -- I guess they will also start to ask for more if testliner producers will come through with their attempts to reach higher prices.

And when that happens, then, of course, that will give price push also for kraftliner in a later stage. And I mean that is now needed in the market. But I guess we have a chicken race out there. There's a lot of capacity is coming on stream for testliner. And so, I don't know when it will happen, but it will happen, and we are at the bottom just now. That's my estimation.

Yes. And if you look at the forest valuation, I don't want to speculate going forward. But if you look at 2025, activity was a normal basis and the 1-year average increased slightly during the year. And for next year, we see, in general, that the Swedish economy is improving. Wood raw material prices are coming down a bit. But usually, I mean, when you buy a forest asset, you have 100-year view on the forest prices or the wood raw material prices. So it's not -- I mean, it's the general long-term view that's the most important. But we'll have to see. But this year was slightly up on the 1 year average, but the 3-year average declined.

Yes. Okay. That makes sense. And actually, just a follow-up on the wood prices. I mean, you're talking about relatively modest declines, obviously, prices being pretty flat so far for pulpwood. Given the decreases we've seen in Finland. I mean is there any -- I mean, I would assume that Sweden would have followed to a greater extent already. Is there anything stopping prices sort of gapping down lower given the potential for arbitrage across the border? I mean, what's the -- what's are the thoughts there?

Sorry, what was it wood raw materials? Was that pulpwood?

Yes.

Pulpwood, yes, but I mean, we have seen pulpwood prices fallen also in our region. And as Andreas said, I mean, we will see some of it also in Q1, I guess, for pulpwood.

But it's this lag effect because, I mean, you buy on stumpage what -- I mean, what we harvest in Q1, we bought in Q2 and Q3 and Q4, you had this delay effect because you buy stumpage to write the harvest from the private forest owner.

And also, you cannot just follow-up public announcements as you also, on top of that, have different premiums and things like that, which is individual for each buyer and for each market and so on. So, I mean, what you see announced will not be the -- exactly the same effect that you will have in the account, I guess. But you always have this lagging effect. But we are -- we have the same journey. And of course, now boosted by the windfalls we've seen in our region that will come -- that will also have definitely an impact on pulpwood prices.

And actually, just final one, just on context. I mean, what is the total size of the market in Sweden in terms of pulpwood consumption per year? I mean, how significant is that in the broader market?

I'm not sure. We have around 10% of the forest assets in Sweden, and we harvest around 5 million cubic meters from our own forest each year, just to have some kind of ballpark.

But was it the total harvesting volume in Sweden, was that the question?

Yes, exactly.

Yes. It's -- okay, sorry, it's around 85 million cubic meters per year.

Okay. So it's roughly 10% additional supply?

Exactly 10%, 15% -- 10% between -- I guess, it will be 15%. And then also in addition, you have 3 million to 4 million cubic meters on the Finnish side.

[Operator Instructions] And we'll now move on to our next question from Cole Hathorn of Jefferies.

I'd just like to follow up on sawn wood business. I just missed your commentary on what your expectation is of price declines quarter-on-quarter into Q1? And just on your sawlogs, I know you said they were -- they're going to be up around 7%. But just to clarify, that is Northern Sweden, I imagine the rest of Sweden sawlog prices are lower, just a clarification there.

Yes. I mean, starting with the price development for Finnish products. As I said, from Q3 to Q4, we had -- the average price was down 5%. From Q4 over to Q1 2026, I guess we will have a flat price development. But what we didn't expect really was the -- we have had another impact from -- negative currency effect impact, of course. But I guess it will be close to zero.

On the other hand, for us, as I said, we will have close to -- yes, 7%, 8%, you said, increasing log prices. And I mean, we cannot comment what will happen in other parts of Sweden, I guess. The reason for that for us is that we thought it would be a very tight situation coming into the first quarter, not the least for spruce log. So we bought rather big volumes in the fourth quarter. And I mean, we couldn't know or expect that we should have a big windfall in our region between Christmas and New Year. And if we would have knew that, then, of course, we should have acted differently. But now we have to take care of what we bought.

Also, and just a longer-term question on wood products. I mean, we've seen CBAM boosting the cost of cement, the cost of steel, import restrictions, increasing prices of these construction raw materials. Do we see wood as kind of an underappreciated beneficiary? When do people look at the construction costs of sawn wood and say, we should start using more of this product? Or is that just too far away into the future?

And then following up on Containerboard, we've seen some of the U.S. players talk about slightly better order books, slightly better demand. I'm just wondering, are you seeing any more positive trends in the containerboard and bauxite at this stage or not yet?

I mean, starting with solid wood products. I guess, we are pretty positive to the future market for solid wood products. Then again, it's always a balance between what you have to pay for the raw material and what can you get out from the market. As you know, more than 70% of the cost for the sawmill is related to the raw material, of course. But I mean, we feel that the demand for solid wood products is -- I guess it's okay as it is just now, and we see an improving trend also for coming quarters now. And let's see where we will end up. But...

I think, Q2 is usually typically a stronger quarter.

Structurally, I think that, I mean, in many cases, people have tried to turn from -- also from fossils over to non-fossil materials. And I mean, that will also benefit the solid wood business going forward. So I think we are positive long term in this field.

And then about Containerboard. I guess, we had -- if we look into last year, I mean, the consumption was up 1.5% during last year. And also when you look at the box demand, as you saw maybe on the slide I did show, I mean, you have a positive -- the trend is positive.

Then again, I think what is harming the balance just now is that we have seen a lot of new capacity coming on stream, not for testliner. I mean, the only capacity in kraftliner is what we are providing the market ourselves in -- from Obbola. But otherwise, in testliner, we've seen a lot of capacity coming on stream. Some has been closed, and I guess some more capacity will be closed. And I guess we have, for that reason, a little bit of chicken race just now out there, and let's see where and when that will -- how and when that will end up.

So I guess, but then you asked about consumption. Honestly, I don't think -- I think we are -- it is a rather slow market out there, at least for us being in Europe and might be a little bit better in U.S. and also in other regions, we have a slightly better demand. But again, the price is, of course, lower when we have to go overseas with our volumes. So that is -- and that has also impacted the result for us as we are now ramping up Obbola.

That was not a very clear answer, but it was a trial at least.

And we will now take our next question from Pallav Mittal of Barclays.

I have two of them. So firstly, can you talk a bit about the adverse mix impact that you highlighted for your pulp and the containerboard business, especially over the last couple of quarters? And do you expect that to continue in 2026 given the weakest demand that we are seeing in Europe? And just to follow up, what are your expectations on CTMP pricing in the near term?

Did you get the first one?

Can you repeat the first question, please?

Just asking about the adverse mix impact on your pulp and containerboard business?

Okay, yes. Okay. Yes. So, what we saw in -- especially in Q4, as Ulf mentioned, we had lower delivery volumes in Europe due to a weaker market, which means that we sold a larger part in Q4 in overseas market. And I think that was partly because -- I mean the weak market, but also because that customers knew that the rebates were going to increase at the beginning of the year. So they ordered as little as possible, of course, during the quarter. As you know, the rebates were kicking in the 1st of January. So I think you might have some positive effect there, but the weak market. I mean, we still expect that in Q1.

And the second one was around CTMP. I don't know if I get you right. But I mean, the demand is still slow on CTMP. And I think we and also other producers are -- we are taking curtailments now when we have a high energy price. And so, I mean, we do a marginal calculation. And by that, we have reduced capacity as it is just now from Ortviken.

Price-wise, we have not seen any increase in rebates in '26 in comparison with '25. So the price is more or less sideways. And the business we have in Europe is, it's okay. But then again, it's tough for us to come from Europe over to Asia not the least and make some money on it. So, we monitor this carefully, and we do this marginal calculation where we have to calculate on the marginal wood cost and also marginal energy cost for CTMP.

Sure. If I can just squeeze one more in, and this is regarding the first quarter of '26. I appreciate there are a number of moving parts. But can you help us understand, I mean, sequentially, how we should think about the first quarter, especially given the declining prices, negative effect but some support from the pulpwood cost side of things. So is it fair to assume a very similar EBITDA in Q1 despite having a zero maintenance?

Yes. So we won't -- we don't give direct guidance. But if you just look at the moving parts, we had a maintenance stop in the fourth quarter, and we won't have any maintenance stops in Q1.

On the pulp side, we see no maintenance stop, but the increase in rebates and negative currency effect as a negative and as a positive slightly lower pulpwood costs in containerboard.

It's, as Ulf mentioned this in the beginning of the quarter, this minus EUR 20 per tonne in prices. And then we'll have to see if this testliner prices goes through, that might have a positive impact if you go through that at the end of the quarter or Q2.

And then in solid wood products, we see fairly stable prices, a bit better on spruce, but increasing sawlog prices.

And then in Forest, we harvest seasonally a bit lower in Q1 compared to Q4. And then other costs, OCC is slightly cheaper. Also transportation cost has go down slightly.

And we'll now take our next question from Alexander of Pareto Securities.

Just a quick question regarding harvesting. If you could elaborate a little bit on expected -- the harvesting volumes sort of in the next few years? And also with regard to biological assets, what kind of long, sort of, term growth rate you see regarding harvesting specifically?

I mean, as I said, I mean, this year, we reached 5.4 million cubic meters. And I guess, next year, we will -- yes, if not do that as we have to support some forest owners in windfall areas, we will do that, of course. But I mean, we will remain on around 5 million cubic meters. So that's it.

And on biological assets, we -- it will -- we expect it to be slightly lower, the revaluation, next year compared to this year. But we still have -- I mean, we look at the long-term average trend price of wood raw material prices, and that will still increase even if the prices go down next year, the long-term average will still go up. But impact will be a bit lower next year compared to this year.

And on volumes in that calculation?

In the volume term.

No, the prices will go up and the volumes is based on our latest harvesting calculation, that would be unchanged.

That was our last question, and I will now hand it back to the host for any closing remarks.

And that concludes our presentation of the year-end report. Welcome back in April for our first quarter report. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.

Good morning, and welcome to this presentation of SCA's 2025 Third Quarter Results. With me here today, I have President and CEO, Ulf Larsson; and CFO, Andreas Ewertz, to go through the results and take your questions. Over to you, Ulf.

Thank you, Anders. And also from my side, a good morning. Happy to present results for the third quarter '25. So -- and when I summarize the quarter, we can state that SCA continued to deliver a solid result in a rather challenging environment. Our high degree of self-sufficiency in strategic areas continued to be an important factor to mitigate higher costs, not the least related to wood raw materials.

Our EBITDA reached SEK 1.64 billion and by that, an EBITDA margin of 33% for the third quarter. In Q3 '25, we had substantially lower prices in the Pulp segment in comparison with the same period last year.

Our planned maintenance stops in pulp and containerboard were also considerably more extensive compared to the same quarter last year. Delivery volumes in the Containerboard segment increased this year compared with the same quarter last year, driven by the continued ramp-up of our Obbola containerboard mill.

The uncertain market situation, mainly dominated by changing tariffs continues to affect market conditions.

The forest industry in general is momentarily challenged by a weaker -- with a market with soft underlying demand in many product areas.

Turning over to some financial KPIs for the third quarter '25. As already mentioned, our EBITDA reached SEK 1.64 billion in the quarter, which corresponds to a 33% EBITDA margin and a 22% EBIT margin.

Our industrial return on capital employed came out just over 6%, counted for the last 12 months. And the leverage was at 1.7x with our -- while our net debt to equity reached 11.2%.

I will now make some comments for each segment, starting with Forest. Higher harvesting levels from our own forest have not the least contributed to stable supply of wood raw materials to our industries during this period.

We have seen a continuous long-term trend of increasing prices for both pulpwood and sawlogs as can be seen in the graph on the bottom left. Regarding pulpwood, we have now passed the peak, I guess, and the prices have started to come down during this quarter.

Demand for sawlogs continues to be high, especially for spruce logs. When one compares Q3 '25 with Q3 '24, sales were up 14%, while EBITDA was up 17%, mainly due to higher prices for wood raw materials. Turning over to Wood. In general, we still have a slow underlying market for solid wood products. As said before, we have noted signs of improvement in the repair and remodeling segment this year in comparison with the last year, but the uncertainty in general economic development continues to affect the market recovery negatively.

Stock levels remain on the high side among producers for pine, but are on normal levels for spruce.

Stock levels at customers continue to be on the low side. The volumes in both production and deliveries were good for SCA during the quarter, resulting in a close to unchanged stock level of sawn goods.

The price for solid wood products decreased by 5% in the third quarter of '25 in comparison with the second quarter of '25. This development is in line with what I said when I presented the report for the second quarter.

As expected, the cost for sawlogs has increased from the second to the third quarter, and we also expect them to continue to increase going into the fourth quarter. Sales were in line with the same quarter last year. EBITDA margin decreased from 19% to 15% due to higher raw material costs and a negative currency effect.

Today's stock level of solid wood products in Sweden and Finland is described at the top left on this slide and is shown in relation to the average for the last 5 years.

As mentioned earlier, we note that the inventory level is on the high side, especially for pine, while the SCA level is rather normal.

As can be seen in the diagram to the bottom left, the Swedish and Finnish sawmills production has been on a normal level during the first 8 months of '25.

In the diagram to the top right, we can note that the price decreased during the third quarter. The decrease in pine has been larger in comparison with the spruce products.

Going into the next quarter, I estimate that prices on average again will decrease by up to 5%, somewhat more for pine and somewhat less for spruce.

And this is driven by the momentarily high availability of pine products. In the construction sector, we can conclude that start of new buildings continues to be low.

As said before, uncertainties are still present, but we see improved consumption in the repair and remodeling sector.

The level of duties now put in place on wood products from Canada delivered to U.S., about 45% in comparison to the level for wood products from European Union, delivered to the U.S. about 10% has strengthened the competitiveness for EU producers in comparison with Canadian producers.

And I guess it's likely that the price level in U.S. will increase when stock levels are coming down from today's high levels.

So over to pulp. When comparing Q3 '25 with Q3 '24, sales were down 21%, mainly due to lower prices, a lower delivery volume and a negative currency effect.

EBITDA was down 57%, compared to last year, mainly due to lower prices, a negative currency effect and higher cost for wood raw materials.

The cost for the planned maintenance stop was SEK 83 million this quarter compared to SEK 35 million in Q3 '24.

Global demand for pulp was at a healthy level during the first quarter of '25. During the second quarter, the market changed with reduced demand and prices came under pressure, much due to uncertainty related to U.S. tariffs.

During the third quarter, prices on NBSK pulp were stable at low levels. On the demand side, we saw increased activity in China during the quarter.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar in relation to the Swedish krona, which started already in Q1, continued to have a negative impact on the pricing in SEK also in Q3. Tariffs on NBSK pulp from the European Union to the U.S. were removed during the third quarter, and this allows us to maintain a competitive offering in the U.S.

Looking at CTMP, prices have been unchanged in Asia at low levels and have decreased slowly in Europe during the third quarter.

Inventories of softwood and CTMP have been increasing in July and August, as you can see in the diagram and are now on the high level.

Hardwood inventories on the contrary were stable during the third quarter.

Moving over to Containerboard. Sales were up 10% in Q3 in comparison with the same period last year, driven by higher delivery volumes and higher prices, somewhat mitigated by a negative currency effect.

EBITDA was down by 39%, very much driven by long planned maintenance stop with a cost of SEK 204 million versus SEK 87 million in Q3 2024.

Higher costs for wood raw materials and a negative currency effect also had an impact. We have seen a softer box demand during the last quarter, but still with a positive development on a year-to-date basis.

The retail business remains on a positive driver. On the other side, we continue to see a weak European manufacturing industry, which, for the moment, drives the demand in a negative direction.

After a stable first half of the year of European demand of containerboard has started to decrease in Q3, due to the current turbulent macro environment, it's difficult to have a view on the long-term demand.

In Q3, we have seen additional supply coming on stream with the vast majority coming in testliner. We do not expect further capacity increases in Q4, except from the ramp-up effect of newly started machines.

Kraftliner inventories remain above average level in Q3, as you can see in the graph. During Q3, the availability of OCC has been good, driven by the lower demand in the quarter, which in its turn has led to decreasing prices of OCC.

Moving into Q4, we see the availability of OCC to be stable and expect prices to be more or less unchanged. Prices for brown kraftliner in Central Europe has during Q3 decreased with EUR 20 per tonne, driven mainly by slow demand and reduced prices of OCC. White kraftliner has remained stable.

Finally, I will say some words about renewable energy. In this area, we have had a weaker quarter compared to the same period last year, mainly due to lower prices in wind power and solid biofuels.

Continued improvements in ramping up Gothenburg biorefinery are partly compensating for this. The market for solid biofuels in Northern Sweden continues to be weak due to warm weather and low electricity prices.

This factor increases our export share and by that, reduced margin. For liquid biofuels, we have seen higher margins compared to previous quarters. The main reasons are tighter supply due to maintenance stops in biorefineries, European countries implementing RED III and better control mechanism within the EU regarding imported feedstock.

We expect market volatility in renewable fuels to remain high as Europe ramps up the blending mandates both from -- both in HVO and SAF.

Electricity prices were low during the quarter, which impacted on our wind business negatively, but it is good, of course, for SCA as a net buyer of electricity.

SCA's land lease business is stable at 9.7 terawatt hours, which is equal to 20% of installed capacity of wind power in Sweden.

Installed capacity on our land is expected to reach 10.5 terawatt hours by the end of the year. And by that, I hand over to you, Andreas.

Thank you, Ulf, and good morning, everybody. I'll start off with the income statement for the third quarter. Net sales decreased 5% to SEK 5 billion, driven by negative currency effects and lower prices, which was partly offset by higher delivery volumes.

EBITDA decreased 18% to SEK 1.6 billion, driven by negative currency effects, lower prices and higher costs for planned maintenance stops. EBIT decreased to SEK 1.1 billion and financial items totaled minus SEK 103 million.

With an effective tax rate of just below 20%, bringing net profit to SEK 0.8 billion or SEK 1.19 per share.

On the next slide, we have the financial development by segment and starting with the Forest segment to the left. Net sales decreased to SEK 2.4 billion, driven by lower delivery volumes compared to the previous quarter due to several planned maintenance stop at SCA's industries.

EBITDA decreased to SEK 912 million due to seasonally lower harvest from SCA's own forest. In wood, prices decreased compared to previous quarter, while the cost for sawlogs continued to increase.

Net sales decreased to SEK 1.5 billion, driven by lower delivery volumes and lower prices compared to the previous quarter. EBITDA decreased to SEK 232 million, corresponding to a margin of 15%.

In pulp, net sales decreased to SEK 1.65 billion, driven by lower delivery volumes and lower prices. EBITDA decreased to SEK 242 million, corresponding to a margin of 15%.

Higher costs for planned maintenance stops and lower prices were offset by lower costs. We had lower energy and raw material costs in the quarter, and Q3 is also a low-cost quarter for indirect costs in all segments, which had a positive impact.

In Containerboard, net sales decreased to SEK 1.8 billion and EBITDA decreased to SEK 194 million, corresponding to a margin of 11%.

Result was negatively impacted by planned maintenance stops in both Munksund and Obbola of SEK 204 million.

The market for renewable energy continued to be weak. EBITDA decreased compared to previous quarter and amounted to SEK 79 million, corresponding to a margin of 21%. The decrease was mainly driven by lower deliveries of solid biofuels.

On the next slide, we have the sales bridge between Q3 last year and Q3 this year. Prices decreased 2%, driven by lower pulp prices. Volumes increased 1%, driven by higher volumes in containerboard, which was also offset by lower volumes in pulp.

And lastly, currency had a negative impact of 4%, bringing net sales to SEK 5 billion.

Moving on to EBITDA bridge and starting to the left. Price/mix had a negative impact of SEK 99 million and higher volumes had a positive impact of SEK 14 million.

Higher costs for mainly wood raw materials had a negative impact of SEK 57 million, which was mitigated by our highest degree of self-sufficiency.

We had a positive impact from energy of SEK 37 million and a negative impact of currency of SEK 169 million. This was impacted by higher costs for planned maintenance stops. And in total, EBITDA decreased to SEK 1.6 billion, corresponding to a margin of 33%.

Looking at the cash flow. Operating cash flow increased to SEK 1.1 billion for the quarter, and SEK 2.5 billion for the first 9 months. And as you know, other operating cash flow relates mostly to working capital currency hedges and should be seen together with changes in working capital.

Looking at the balance sheet. The value of the forest asset totaled SEK 108 billion. Working capital decreased compared to previous quarter and totaled SEK 5.6 billion.

Capital employed totaled SEK 160 billion and net debt decreased compared to the previous quarter to SEK 11.7 billion. And we have now almost finalized our large ongoing investment projects. Equity totaled SEK 104 billion and net debt to equity was 11%.

Thank you. With that, I'll hand back to you, Ulf.

So thank you, Andreas. And well, just to summarize, I mean, as I said, we have continued to deliver a solid result in a rather challenging environment. .

I guess the market has bottomed in more or less all areas except from solid wood products. On the other side, we will see a cost pressure coming in our solid wood business, wider price for pulpwood has now stabilized and are on its way down, I would say.

In pulp and kraftliner, I guess, the market is going sideways now, and we are 100% focused on what we can have an impact on ourselves, which is meaning that we are focusing on the ramp-up of our big projects. And they are going very well -- did go very well during the third quarter.

So by that, I think that we open up for some questions.

[Operator Instructions]

And we will now take our first question from Ioannis Masvoulas of Morgan Stanley.

I've got 3 questions, if I may. I'll take them one at a time.

First on pulpwood costs. Given the small decline that you show in your slide deck for Q3 and the typical lag in your business, what should we expect for cost development in your industries in Q4 this year and also Q1 2026?

You asked about pulpwood. And as I said, I mean, we see that now that prices for pulpwood is coming down in the market. But as you say, we have a lagging effect. And I could say that we have -- it's around 6 months or less. Andreas?

Yes. So in the fourth quarter, I mean, fairly flat, maybe we're talking about 1% decline in pulpwood prices. So fairly flat, while the cost for sawlogs will continue to increase a bit into Q4.

And in the beginning of next year?

Then I think that pulpwood will slowly continue to decrease. But as I said, I would say, it's around 6 months of lag effect in the terms of sawlogs. I think they will start to peak also around maybe Q1, Q1 next year.

And then going back to pulp, looking at NBSK inventories on days of supply were pretty much at the top of the historical range, do you see the recent temporary curtailments among your peers to help rebalance the market in the short term? Or do we need to see more aggressive supply response?

It's hard to say, I mean, maybe I didn't say that, but I mean we are still at a very high operating rate in NBSK, and we should because we have a very low cash cost, of course.

But on the other hand, we see announcements now from many areas where they have started to take curtailments. I guess also in the statistics that you see now, we haven't included the typical longer maintenance stops that we have had now during the autumn.

So I guess that the inventory will come down. And as always, it's a question, it's a supply-demand issue. And I guess we will see a better balance, but I mean, underlying, we have to wait for an increase in consumption before we can say that we have a stronger market.

Understood. And then just last question for me on the FX hedging. Looking at your disclosure, you seem to have brought down your USD hedge ratios for the next 4 quarters. Is that a conscious decision to avoid locking in an unfavorable FX rate?

And could these ratios come down further in the coming quarters if spot FX rates persist?

We use statistical model for our hedge strategy. So we have -- for the next 6 months, we hedge around 50% to 85% of our net exposure and then it goes down.

But then it depends on statistically how favorable the currency is. So we use model and for the U.S. dollar currently in the low range of that while for euro, we are on the normal range.

And we'll now take our next question from Linus Larsson of SEB.

Couple of questions on use of funds. It seems to me that you have a very strong balance sheet. Cash flow is robust through the cycle. You're running at high operating rates, like you say, your competitiveness is strong.

How do you look at buybacks in this context, given where your share price is trading and given your investment plans for the time being?

If we start with the investment plan, as I said, we are just now 100% focused on ramping up what we have started, and we feel that we are doing that in a good way. As I've also said, I mean, just now, we sit on our hands. We will not start up new big projects.

And I guess, as all other companies, we also try to -- yes, not do too many current investments because we have an uncertain market coming going forward, I mean, that's the position we have just now.

And the question about buybacks, I mean, that is more question for the Board, honestly. So let's see. We are now focused on ramping up what we have started. And by that, as you said, we expect that we will increase our cash flow capacity substantially.

Yes. Yes. No, that's great. But I mean, principally, how does the Board look at buybacks? Is there like a principal view on whether or not buybacks is part of the toolbox?

Again, that's a question for the Board. But as far as I understand, we have no principles in this matter. I think we have done since the split 2017, I mean, we have invested 20% of the net sales in the company every year. For us, that's a lot of money. For all companies, it's a lot of money.

So we are more focused just now to realize the cash flow that we suppose -- that we will have from these ongoing investments, so that's our focus now.

Yes. No, that's clear. And just to finish off that, what's your CapEx guidance for 2025 and 2026, respectively?

If you look at CapEx for '25, I think that current CapEx will be around SEK 1.5 billion. We might have some spillover to next year, so SEK 1.4 billion, SEK 1.5 billion. And then in terms of strategic CapEx, also depending on timing of some payment, but around SEK 1.3 billion, SEK 1.4 billion.

So maybe SEK 2.8 billion in total for current and strategic, but it depends on certain timing of certain payments. For next year, strategic CapEx will go down. We have some payments left in the ramp-ups, but strategic CapEx will come down.

And then I would guess that current will be slightly higher than this year since we have some spillover from this year to next year.

But how much will the strategic CapEx go down? Is it SEK 0.5 billion or SEK 1 billion or around the backlog?

It depends on some timing, but I would guess we have a couple of hundred millions left on our current projects.

And we'll now take our next question from Charlie Muir-Sands of BNP Paribas.

I wanted to start on the round wood market. So you mentioned obviously log prices are high and if anything, still slightly moving up due to high demand.

But equally, it sounds like the wood products market in general is still quite soft. So I'm just trying to understand, is this a demand that's for other uses? Or are you basically saying this is more of a supply issue for the market?

And if so, is this just of a hangover from the spark beetle delivery from prior years? Or is there any other reason why we could expect some better balance coming back on the supply side soon?

And then just on the pulpwood cost side, very helpful the detail you've given so far. But just in terms of the timing effects, the changes in pricing of pulpwood hit the forestry and then the industrial segment at the same time?

Or is there a phasing effect whereby the P&L benefit on forest is reduced before the cost tailwind on the industrial segments come through or anything like that to be aware of.

Yes. So if you look at the pricing, I mean we base our internal prices of what the Forest division pays for its sourcing and a lot to buy on stumpage. So you buy the right to harvest.

And then, I mean, you optimize the harvesting to try to have some larger areas to have efficient harvesting. So it can be vary. I mean, some of these -- what the harvest is couple of months. You bought it for some might be 3 months ago or 6 months ago.

And then that average price is what the industry gets to pay. But the pricing is -- when the prices goes down, the industry will get a lower price, but then, of course, our Forest division will earn less money on their own harvest. But one day, what they source externally that they get paid for.

And then the second question -- the first question was around the demand for sawlogs.

The coming demand. I mean, as we see just now, we have, as you saw on the graph in Sweden and Finland, the production is still on a normal level, even if we know that the price -- log prices are very, very high.

And profitability in the business is, in general, rather low. We feel rather confident with the profitability we have in our own Wood division. But I mean we -- up until today, we haven't seen any signs of decreasing log prices actually.

And also -- it's also difference between pine and spruce sawlog. On spruce sawlog, you have much lower supply compared to pine sawlog, sort of pricing and demand difference there.

And then just on the wood products side, you mentioned the relative competitive advantage for EU exporters to the U.S. now versus Canadian. Can you just talk about the relative profitability of your U.S. business compared with your European business today? How big an opportunity might this be?

Yes. First, if we take the tariffs, I mean, as I said, the tariff just now going from Europe over to U.S. is 10%, and coming from Canada over to U.S., then the tariff is 45%. As it is just now, in U.S., the stock level is on the very high side. So, so far, we haven't seen any impact on the, let's say, the local price in U.S. But I guess when the inventory level is coming down, then, of course, customers, they have to start to buy and then they can buy some volume from Europe and they have to buy some volume from Canada. But then I guess that prices can in a short while, increased quite dramatically. We don't have a big volume for U.S. We do, let's say, 80,000 cubic meter per year. But again, it's a global market.

So if we start to see better trade in U.S., I mean, that will, of course, have also an impact on the European market and also the Asian market and so on and so on. So we have to wait and see. But I mean, as it is just now, I guess, it's more a question of time. We will have a slow fourth quarter, as we always have. And I guess it will be rather slow also in the first quarter. But then I guess, in the beginning of the second quarter next year, then we might start to see something.

But Canadian volumes can't get displaced into other parts of the world or even coming into Europe to offset that benefit?

Yes, not really. I mean, of course, you will see some Canadian volumes in China and you might -- I don't think you will see too much of it in Europe. Again, it's -- you have the distribution cost and many of those sawmills, they are located inland. And so it's also a question of distribution, inland distribution cost within in Canada so I guess if this remains, which you never know, I mean, then you probably will see further closures and capacity reductions. And honestly, I don't know really how the U.S. -- I mean, we know that U.S., they need a lot of solid wood products coming into U.S. So I guess it might be so that we see some further changes going forward now.

Also when it comes to tariffs and things like that. So I mean, it's -- but all these -- I think we had a question before. But I mean, tariffs, we are not directly too much impacted by tariffs. We can handle that in a good way. But I guess that this discussion has created uncertainty globally. And that's the reason also why we have a rather slow demand in Asia in more or less all product areas. And so I mean that is the -- I guess the worst thing with tariffs is it is creating some kind of uncertainty in all areas and globally.

We'll now take our next question from Robin Santavirta of DNB.

Thank you very much. Firstly, I have a question related to the Containerboard business. Looking at the delivery volumes now this year, they have been quite steady, but it seems still Obbola is not running at full capacity. And now you had the log maintenance shut. So could you give some guidelines on volume outlook for that segment in Q4 and early 2026? Should we expect a bit of a step change or more of a slow gradual ramp-up during the end of the year and next year?

When it comes to Obbola, we have said that Obbola will produce 600,000 tonnes this year, and they will do so if nothing expected will happen in the fourth quarter. Then it is a tough market in kraftliner. So we have seen during the third quarter, increasing inventories in kraftliner. And so that's the case. And as you said, we also had a rather long maintenance stop in Q3. So that also had an impact on deliveries. But production-wise, Obbola will reach 600,000 tonnes next -- this year. And then the plan is to reach 700,000 tonnes next year.

Okay. Okay. Can I ask about this EU deforestation regulation? How do you view that? Will that have any kind of impact for your businesses in Europe either way, what is your view?

I mean, it has also created a lot of uncertainty. But I guess for us, we can manage EUDR, but of course, it would be an administrative burden, which we don't like. But we can handle it.

But what about your competitors? Could it be a setup where some pulp had been imported from some countries or some paperboard that has been imported from Asia or Americas, they could end up in a bit of difficulty to do so in the future? Or will this impact trade flow at all in your view?

Yes, it's very hard to predict. I mean, we have been working quite hard to find out a system which will not create a lot of administration. And I mean, typically, we are for free trade. I think that's good. And I think that EU in the long run, they will benefit from a free trade. We don't know what -- how this will be implemented in the trade up till today. So again, this is also another thing that really creates uncertainty. But the honest answer is we don't know how that will -- this will play out. The only thing we can do is to focus on our own ability to meet the requirements that might come.

Yes, for sure, for sure. Follow-up question related to the pulp market. What is going on in the softwood pulp market? There's a lot of curtailments now during early autumn. Certainly, Finland, some in Sweden as well, I understand some in Canada as well. And historically, when you do that, you tighten up the market quite quickly. Now we're not seeing that. Is this a bit of a substitution into hardwood pulp? Is it some Chinese volumes that -- I mean, historically, they do not produce a lot of softwood pulp. Now I understand there is some production going on in China as well. So why is not the market tightening despite the quite significant production curtailments in the Northern Hemisphere?

I guess the first thing is that the underlying demand is weak. So that's the first explanation. The second thing is substitution. I don't think that we will see more of substitution today than we did last year. I mean, it's not as easy as that. And we have always had a delta between hardwood and softwood prices. So I mean, if possible, I guess, it would have already been done. So I haven't heard anything -- no structural changes in that area. What we know is that a lot of capacity in pulp is -- will be built up in China. And that, of course, sooner or later, that will -- might have an impact. As it is just now, we are more considered about the CTMP volumes. And as we have understood, I mean, the board market is very weak. And while companies in Asia while they closed down the converting and stop producing boards, I mean, they still produce CTMP, and that will, of course, give a surplus in the market.

Then also, I guess, that the statistics that we also saw on our side was from August, Andreas, and I guess we will see some other figures now coming into September, October and so on. We also have had a lot of big maintenance stops in pulp. But you're right. I mean, we also hear that companies, they are taking curtailments now. So far, no big changes. But I mean -- and the prices maybe -- I guess that the price has already bottomed because at this level, we see that curtailments are taken instead of continuing to produce and of course, creating a negative cash flow. So we have reached the bottom. I guess we will see some result of actions taken now later this year. But again, the fundamental challenge is the underlying demand that must come back.

Thank you very much.

And we'll now move on to our next question from Oskar Lindstrom of Danske Bank.

Three questions for me, if I may. The first one is just on the lower wood cost. You mentioned this in the Pulp division sequentially, but not in containerboard, sorry, not lower pulp costs, lower wood costs, having a positive impact on pulp, but it didn't seem to have it on Containerboard. What's the reason for that? Should I go on with the other questions?

No, we take 1 at a time. So I mean, we have maybe 1% lower pulpwood prices in both Containerboard and in Pulp. In Pulp, we had a better yield in the quarters, we had lower consumption of both energy and wood and they generally have low cost quarter. But I would say it's more on the consumption side that we have lower cost on pulp in this quarter.

And in Containerboard, was it just the maintenance stop that sort of...

The Containerboard, we had large maintenance stop both in Munksund and Obbola, the cost around SEK 20 million. So that quarter was impacted by that stop.

Right. Moving on to cash flow. You say that you will increase your cash flow significantly in 2026, and I presume beyond as well, while CapEx looks as if it's going to come down quite a bit. If we only look at the ramp-up of Obbola, can you say anything about what kind of contribution you expect from that 2026 versus 2025? If you reach the 100,000 tonnes, could you put a monetary value on that?

Currently, I would say it's hard to put the money on the excess volume because you said that currently have a weaker market, and that means that the extra volumes you would place on -- you have a worst customer mix and country mix on those extra volumes that will, of course, depend on how the market develops. If you have a stronger market, I mean, those volumes would be placed in customers in Europe and places nearby. And that will have a larger impact. But if you have a weak market, of course, then we'll have to put it further away. So it depends on how the market develops.

And also to add, I mean, if you have -- yes, maybe that was exactly what you said. I mean, if you have an additional volume already this year, if you go from a little bit over 400 up to 600, I mean that puts a pressure in a tough market that puts a pressure on the market side, of course. So I mean you also have a -- you have ramp-up production-wise, but you also have a ramp-up in the market. So of course, we have to find markets overseas not at least as it is just now.

Of course. And my third question is, I mean, we've seen other companies in your sector announcing cost savings and even structural changes as a consequence of the tough market, which both they and you seem to feel is not about to change anytime soon. I mean, do you see any need for you to take actions if demand does not improve, either cost-saving actions or structural changes?

I mean, if we go back to 2017, as I said, we have been invested 20% of the net sales more or less every year. And by that, we have also top-class sites as it is just now. We have also, during this period, closed down our publication paper business. and we are focused on pulp, containerboard and also solid wood products and to some extent, also renewable energy. And step by step, I mean, as soon as we see that we can reduce the manning or if we can do something else to improve our cost position, we will do that. So for me, it's -- I don't like those programs because that means that you haven't done your work -- your ongoing work, so to say.

For the last one and half year we had a program to reduce our personnel at our pulp division with around 80 people and has gradually begun to give an effect.

And we reduced the manning by 800 people when we closed down the publication paper business. So I mean, if you have structural changes, then, of course, you have to follow up with personnel reductions, but otherwise, that is something that you have to do. That's the everyday work.

My final question is on CapEx, which you talked a little bit about here. You say that you expect next year for current CapEx to be -- I can't remember the exact wording, but slightly higher. And then how much higher is that? And then you said the strategic CapEx will be a couple of hundred million. How many couples of hundreds of millions are we talking about? Is it possible for you to be a little bit more precise? I'm just wondering.

It depends, of course, on what overspill we have to next year, and then it depends. I mean, we have our base CapEx for next year. And then we have some potential projects, and it depends on which of them we go through with which timing, but if we go around 1.5 this year, then you're talking maybe SEK 100 million, SEK 200 million more next year on current CapEx. But again, it depends on what projects we do. And also on the strategic side, it will -- I mean, it will be between 0 and SEK 1 billion but it depends on the timing of our strategic CapEx. For example, we have 1 payment that would either go at the end of this year or the early next year, which is around SEK 150 million, and we have a couple of hundred millions next year. So it depends. But just to give a rough figure.

But CapEx will come down.

Yes, CapEx will come down, yes.

Thank you very much. Those are my questions.

And we'll now take our next question from Martin Melbye of ABG.

Given tariffs and new volumes to place, could you give some hints on prices for Pulp and Containerboard at volumes heading into Q4 quarter-over-quarter?

I mean, we don't know. That's the honest answer. But as I said, we -- I guess, we are in Pulp at the bottom level just now. I mean, as we -- as I said before, I mean, we have seen substantial curtailments taken now. And so I guess, Pulp prices will -- if they -- the only way from this point, I guess, is upwards. When will that come? Well, remains to see, I guess.

I think for Containerboard, we have more capacity has come on stream during the third quarter. No additional capacity will come on stream, but we will see some ramp-ups. I guess we will see some closures in testliner going forward. The balance for kraftliner is much better, of course. I mean, the only additional volume coming in now is our own from the ramp-up in Obbola. On the other side, the inventory level is on the high side coming down a little bit now when we had the new statistics. So it's always -- it's a question of supply-demand balance, of course. But my best guess is sideways, maybe we will start to see upward trend in Pulp and maybe sideways in Containerboard. And as I already said, I guess, we will see somewhat decrease in prices in solid wood products, I guess, another 5% in the fourth quarter and then the first quarter is always -- it's tricky to increase prices in the first quarter. If something is happening now in U.S., that might have a faster impact on the pricing for solid wood products. But otherwise, I think we have to wait for the second quarter next year.

And in terms of volumes, forest, you harvest a bit more from our own forest in the fourth quarter. In solid wood products, I sort of mentioned, you seasonally weaker quarter compared to the summer months so they have lower delivery volumes. In Containerboard, it will be slightly higher since we had a big maintenance stop in the third quarter, which we won't have in the fourth. And in Pulp, I would say it's slightly up or flat.

Thank you. And we'll now take our next question from Cole Hathorn of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

I'd just like to ask what do you see would be the positive catalyst for each of your segments and like to take it in turn. But maybe starting on Pulp. What do you think is truly needed exit the demand? Do you think it's going to be capacity closure potentially something out of Canada considering they've got elevated wood costs and you see a sawmill go down and then pulpwood closure that tightens the market.

Wood product, is it ultimately just a demand that's needed rather than any form of supply response? And Containerboard, I'm just wondering what are you looking for in the market for kraftliner. Is it -- do we need to rely on the recycled closures and to follow that? Or are you seeing the ability to kind of keep this premium versus recycled considering the less imports from the U.S. and much better supply-demand balance in...

If we start with pulp, I guess, it's again, it's about demand. The tissue business is rather slow, of course, it might be impacted by closures also, again, it's a supply-demand issue. And it might be so that just my speculation, but I mean, if we will have a tough -- if tariffs will remain in Canada for solid wood products that will have a negative impact on the raw material supply to the pulp mills that might have an impact over time, of course. Otherwise, it's demand and mainly then in the tissue segment.

In wood, as already said, I mean, we are in the slower season just now in Q4 and Q1. I guess that sooner or later, Americans, they have -- they must start to buy solid wood products. And if the tariff level from Canada over to U.S. will remain of 45%, that definitely will mean that we will see increasing prices in solid wood products even if you're not a big supplier to U.S., which we are not, but still, that will have an impact on the global trade rather immediately, I would say. And then we know that it can start to move quite fast. But I guess if you look at the inventory level in U.S., we have to wait for at least a quarter before we can see something.

In Containerboard, I mean, we look at the box consumption, and we feel that we have a slow demand from the industry while I mean, in other businesses for food and yes, maybe trade and that part -- that is going quite in a normal pace. So -- but the industry for us, I mean, heavy-duty spare parts and things like that where we typically can find a premium for kraftliner. My -- I don't know, but my guess is also that we will see closures in testliner, I guess that the main part of testliner produces just now, they don't make money. And I guess we have a chicken race on the testliner side as this just now. The balance both for Containerboard, kraftliner and also for NBSK, it's much, much better than for recycled-based production.

And then maybe just following up on capital allocation. You were clear that you're ramping up your projects, your past peak CapEx. And beyond that, you've got flexibility for consider capital returns via dividends and buybacks. But you didn't mention anything on M&A, and I'm just wondering how you think about that? And what are your criteria there? Would you consider anything in Central Eastern Europe if a very low-cost asset came available? Are you staying with your production base in Sweden? Just like your thoughts.

I mean, typically, we are a company based on organic growth. And typically, we are a company focused on Sweden where we have our own forest. We don't like to stay in countries where we can see a higher risk really. So I guess we are -- but on the other hand, you shall never say no. But typically, we are based on -- and focused on organic growth as it is.

And as Ulf mentioned before, currently, I mean, we're focusing on our ramp-up of our current project before we add some too much complexity.

And we will now move on to our next question from Andrew Jones of UBS.

Can you hear me okay?

Now, we hear you.

Sorry, apologies, I missed the start of the call. So if you've mentioned this, my apologies. But on the actual solid wood products, what usually give a bit of the sort of guidance range in terms of pricing? I mean, how do you look at pricing going into the fourth quarter on -- in the Wood division? And then also, I think on the last quarter, you sort of gave us like a percentage changes you expect in the Forest division in both logs and then pulp. What sort of percentage changes are you sort of thinking about in the Forest for those 2 categories?

The first one, yes, we did mention that one. And as I said, I mean, we lost 5% in terms of price from -- in the third quarter in comparison with the second quarter. And I guess that we will lose another 5% in the fourth quarter. And that is mainly a seasonal effect as the demand always -- we always have a slower demand in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter. Forest, Andreas, you can...

Yes. So Forest, pulpwood, I mean, they have peaked. We saw a very slight decrease here in the third quarter, maybe 1%, and we expect fairly flat, maybe 1% down in Q4 because of this lag effect. In terms of sawlogs, they will continue to increase a bit in the fourth quarter, maybe 5% compared to Q3, but that's also because you saw that the logs were quite flat within Q2 and Q3. But that's more of a mix effect. We had lower dimension on the logs, which have a lower prices. So we didn't get that so underlying, the prices increased also in Q2 to Q3. But since we had that mix, we didn't see that increase. But now we'll get that in Q4 so maybe 5% up.

So it sounds like a pretty tough quarter, fourth quarter if you're sort of saying price is 5% down, log import prices 5% up. And you're probably seeing some seasonal volume weakness, I guess, maybe and it's about 5% last year. So anything to mitigate or offset those moving parts?

Yes. So but on the solid wood products, I mean, as Ulf said, the prices will go down 5% and also the log will continue to increase a bit, but of course, continuing to focus on cost and what we can affect.

Okay. And just 1 question just about the structural change. On kraftliner, I mean, you've kind of talked about the market being more balanced in kraftliner, obviously compared to testliner, but I mean, how -- why can the actual premium kraftliner and testliner fee in the medium term given the sort of substitution potential, I'm curious like to see whether that premium can be maintained in the near-ish term.

It's hard to say. I mean, the delta just now is EUR 280 or something like that. So that is a rather wide gap. And I guess if customers -- if they can substitute, they will substitute. And we see the same trend in -- we have the same question always in softwood and hardwood pulp. But the same answer, I mean, if customers, if they can substitute, they will do it because if something is cheaper, of course, they will use that instead. So I guess my perspective is more that I think we will at least remain on rather high delta between testliner and test recycled products and base products and virgin-based products as virgin fiber will be a scare resource going forward. So strategically, I guess, we will widen this gap, which we have also seen in the past years. So I think that will remain, honestly.

And also, when you look at the capacity increase. I mean, the absolute main part capacity is coming in the recycled business. But in order to get raw material to the recycled business, you must have some virgin-based production.

And we'll now take our next question from Pallav Mittal of Barclays.

Pallav Mittal on behalf of Gaurav Jain. So a few questions. Firstly, you and your peers have all highlighted good availability of pulpwood because of which we are now seeing this decline in pricing. And now given demand is weak and there are a number of production curtailments, how do you think these pulpwood costs could change if you start seeing some sort of improvement in demand?

Then, of course, it might be so that you have bottleneck again in raw material supply. So again, to have a stable long-term increase in the market, then the consumption must come up, the demand must come up. So that's the simple answer. And I mean, then it might be so that if -- when sawlog prices, if they come down, but pulpwood prices, when they come down, then it might be so that you see additional capacity coming on stream. And by that, of course, the supply will increase for a while. And if then the demand is not picking up, then, of course, you will have a pressure in the market again. So it is as easy as that. It's always a question about supply-demand.

And your question on -- I mean, of course, if demand for the finished product goes up and the production goes up, that will, of course, increase the demand for wood raw material, which is already has been tight.

Sure. And then if I can ask something on CTMP. So you did mention that CTMP prices have declined in Europe, and now we are seeing new capacity in China as well. But does that impact your CTMP ramp-up?

I mean, as it is just now, we have a rather profitable business within Europe in CTMP. But as you say, I mean, we have very -- the margin is not too big in Asia. So yes, in that perspective, we are maybe in -- it's always a marginal calculation. So if we have days with high electricity price or if not now, but before when we saw that we had scarce situation when it comes to pulpwood. I mean then we -- of course, the first production site, we took containers in was in Ortviken and CTMP. So as it is just now, we are a little bit more focused on fine-tuning, I mean, also try to validate products for the European market and so on. So it is very small or from time to time, negative market going from Sweden over to Asia in CTMP as it is just now.

Thank you. That was our last question. I will now hand it back to the host for closing remarks.

Thank you, and that concludes our presentation of the third quarter results. We'll come back in January for our full year report. Thank you for watching, and thank you for listening.