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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 701,44 Mio. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 350,52 Mio. $
Marktkapitalisierung = 701,44 Mio. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 387,81 Mio. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 425,10 Mio. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 350,52 Mio. $
Enterprise Value = 425,10 Mio. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 387,81 Mio. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
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Riskified — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Riskified First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that, today's conference is being recorded.
I would like now to turn the conference over to [ Cody Slach ], Investor Relations for Riskified. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. We are hosting today's call to discuss Riskified's financial results for the first quarter of 2026. Participating on today's call are Eido Gal, Riskified's Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer; and Aglika Dotcheva, Riskified's Chief Financial Officer.
We released our results for the first quarter of 2026 earlier today. Our earnings materials, including a replay of today's webcast will be available on our Investor Relations website at ir.riskified.com.
Certain statements made on the call today will be forward-looking statements related to, without limitation, our operating performance, business and financial goals, outlook as to revenues, gross profit, pipeline generation, pipeline conversion, adjusted EBITDA profitability and adjusted EBITDA margins, which reflect management's best judgment based on currently available information and are not guarantees of future performance.
We intend all forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements reflect our expectations as of the date of this call, and except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to revise this information as a result of new developments that may occur after the time of this call.
Please refer to our Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2025, and subsequent reports we file or furnish with the SEC for more information on the specific factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations.
Additionally, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures and key performance indicators on the call. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings release issued earlier today and also furnished with the SEC on Form 6-K and in the appendix of our Investor Relations presentation, all of which are posted on our Investor Relations website.
I will now turn the call over to Eido.
Thanks, Cody, and hello, everyone. We're off to a strong start in '26 to date, and I'm pleased with the momentum we've been seeing across the business. Our performance this quarter was largely the product of disciplined execution across 3 fronts: converting the growing pipeline into new business at high rates, deepening our platform relationships with existing merchants, and expanding our addressable opportunity, across new verticals and payment methods.
In the first quarter, we delivered non-GAAP gross profit of $46.3 million and revenue of $88.3 million, up 13% and 7% year-over-year, respectively, along with adjusted EBITDA of $6.2 million, a 370% increase from the prior year. Allow me to highlight the key areas of execution that drove our results this quarter.
Our pipeline grew substantially year-over-year with the U.S. being the largest contributor, alongside continued momentum in international markets such as Japan and LatAm. From an industry perspective, we saw healthy activity, particularly in new emerging categories in our travel sub vertical.
Travel was also supported by our recently announced partnership with Outpayce from Amadeus, which deepened our go-to-market reach into airlines globally and contributed to pipeline growth.
Our competitive win rates in the first quarter remained above 75%, a testament to the strength and differentiation of our platform. 5 of our top 10 new logos won in Q1 were headquartered outside of the United States, with those 5 wins spanning 3 verticals: General, Home and Tickets & Travel.
We believe that the momentum built in Q1 reinforces our ability to convert our pipeline into paying merchants at high rates in the quarters to come. Over the course of the first quarter, our committed revenue position for '26 and beyond strengthened, reflecting the durable long-term relationships we continue to build with our merchants.
Moving to product. We have seen strong demand for ACH fraud intelligence for merchants, supporting our thesis that our fraud platform applies across the full spectrum of digital transactions, not just traditional card payments. We positioned ourselves to capture that demand by investing in building ACH-specific models and bespoke features over the past few years, and that investment is now contributing meaningfully to incremental gross profit this quarter. Three of our top 10 deals this quarter were in the ACH space, featuring our largest new logo win.
Each new ACH transaction we process deepens our data advantage, sharpening our models and reinforcing the flywheel effect that compounds performance improvements over time. As noncard payment methods continue to proliferate, we believe we are well positioned to protect merchants no matter how consumers choose to pay. We expect this to be a growing theme throughout '26 as recently onboarded merchants in this category continue to ramp.
We have also seen traction in our nonpayment fraud products, demonstrating that our platform is gaining momentum beyond our core chargeback guarantee offering. The number of merchants who are using more than one product grew approximately 50% year-over-year, and these accounts now drive over 30% of our revenue base. Multiproduct merchants also generally carry a stronger margin profile.
During the quarter, we also released our first stand-alone identity data product. Allow me to explain. One of our most unique assets is our graph database of hundreds of millions of identities with billions of nodes. This graph is built from the global data of hundreds of the world's largest e-commerce merchants. We cluster, tag and update this graph in real time and leverage it to power our product suite and AI models.
Now for the first time, we are making this data available to our merchants to leverage in real time across the entire customer journey. Our first use case involves identity intelligence integrated directly into service workflows, including CRM and service consoles.
Agents receive a real-time risk score the moment a customer contacts them, enabling them to fast track loyal members and apply the right friction to serial of users. Merchants using this capability have seen an up to a 30% reduction in complaint rates and in several cases, a 7-figure reduction in refund and return costs.
Our recently announced partnership with Rue Gilt Groupe, where we are integrated directly into their Zendesk service console is the clearest proof point of this in action. We are still in the early stages, and we look forward to sharing more as this matures, but the pipeline and merchant conversations it has generated so far give us confidence this represents a meaningful expansion of our addressable opportunity.
We recently hosted Ascend 26 North America, the first stop in our global event series for e-commerce risk management leaders. Among hundreds of large enterprise e-commerce leaders representing more than $1.1 trillion in total processing volume, we introduced Riskified ARIA, our AI Risk Intelligence Analyst.
Leveraging ARIA, merchants can use simple conversational language to instantly zoom in on transaction level explainability, visualize specific performance trends or isolate specific risk indicators. ARIA serves as an always-on risk analyst that provides risk intelligence and insight across every touch point of the buyer journey in plain language and in seconds.
On our prior earnings call, we shared that we were seeing general purpose LLMs being used for discovery purposes and not checkout, while merchants were focusing on native LLMs designed to handle the full shopping journey.
One quarter on, that remains the case. While still nascent, we now have merchants leveraging Riskified as the identity and risk intelligence layer that makes those interactions both safe and economically viable. The dialogue with merchants on this topic has continued to deepen, and we see it as a growing driver of pipeline and strategic engagement heading into the rest of '26.
Moving to distribution. We've started expanding our reach through new channels. This quarter, we've launched dispute resolve for Shopify, expanding our reach directly into a large and growing merchant ecosystem.
We also announced our partnership with Radial, one of North America's largest e-commerce solutions and omnichannel fulfillment providers, embedding our fraud and risk intelligence at the intersection of payment processing and fulfillment. This reflects our broader strategy to make our platform easily accessible for everyone.
I'm excited by the increasing velocity of our product releases enabled by Agentic coding tools. We believe that our deep integrations and network data allow us to provide an expanding set of services and that what we are building across products, channels, payment methods and geographies is showing up where it matters in pipeline growth, high win rates and an addressable market that we believe continues to expand. We enter the rest of '26 with confidence in our growth trajectory.
I will now turn it over to Agi for a deeper dive into our financial results.
Thank you, Eido, team and everyone, for joining today's call. Unless otherwise noted, this discussion will reference non-GAAP financial measures. We have provided a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures in our earnings release.
Our GMV for the first quarter was $37.2 billion, reflecting a 9% increase year-over-year. We achieved first quarter revenue of $88.3 million, up 7% year-over-year. Our GMV and revenue growth during this quarter was primarily driven by continued new merchant and upsell activity. Our first quarter billings grew 11% compared to reported revenue growth of 7%, a gap that is among the widest we have seen in several years.
This reflects the timing of revenue recognition under our guarantee accounting framework, and we expect this variance to narrow as we move throughout the year with billings and revenue growth converging on a full year basis, consistent with prior years.
Billings growth in the first quarter was broad-based across nearly all of our categories, led by Tickets & Travel and Money Transfer and Payments. Tickets & Travel grew approximately 18% year-over-year, driven by upsell activity across both the verticals and continued same-store sales momentum in travel.
Notably, tickets and live events returned to positive growth after several quarters of contraction, and we expect it to remain a positive contributor throughout the year. Our Money Transfer and Payments category grew 30% year-over-year, driven by strong upsell activity with existing merchants. These gains were partially offset by softness in our fashion and luxury vertical concentrated in APAC, driven primarily by a strong prior year comparable period.
Looking ahead, we expect our Tickets & Travel, Money Transfer and Payments and Fashion & Luxury categories to collectively approximate 75% of total billings for the year. Within that, we expect Tickets & Travel and Money Transfer and Payments to sustain strong growth throughout 2026, while we expect fashion and luxury to revert to growth as the year progresses.
Turning to our regional performance, bidding through across all regions during the first quarter, driven by a combination of new logo wins and upsell activity. The United States, our largest region, grew 10% year-over-year, returning to positive growth.
APAC grew 15% and is expected to accelerate as the year progresses. Other Americas grew approximately 11% and EMEA delivered approximately 11% growth, supported by same-store sales performance in the Tickets & Travel vertical.
We believe that our broad-based growth across geographies reflects ongoing market share gains globally. Our gross profit for the first quarter was $46.3 million, reflecting a 13% increase year-over-year. The growth was primarily driven by the contribution of new business onboarded over the past year. This was further supported by improved performance across our existing merchant base, with particular strength in our Money Transfer and Payments category, reflecting ongoing enhancements to our core machine learning model.
Nonpayment front products contributed incrementally, reflecting the continued broadening of our platform, as did ACH, where expanding merchant demand is deepening the contribution of our fraud capabilities across a growing set of payment flows. As a result of our solid first quarter, we now expect our gross profit growth range to be between 8% to 12% for the full year. At the midpoint, this implies quarterly growth generally around 10%. In addition, we estimate that each quarter in 2026 will approximate the same percentage of the total as they did in 2025.
Moving to expenses. We continue to manage the business in a focused and disciplined manner. Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $40.1 million for the first quarter. Our non-GAAP operating expenses as a percentage of revenue declined year-over-year from 48% in Q1 of 2025 to 45% in Q1 of 2026, and on a constant currency basis to 42%, reflecting ongoing leverage in the business model.
This came in below our anticipated range of $41 million to $42 million per quarter, driven by the timing of certain expenses that shifted into the second quarter. As a result, we expect the second quarter to be approximately $43 million.
For the second half of the year, we continue to expect quarterly expenses to approximate between $42 million to $43 million, consistent with our prior guidance. We achieved adjusted EBITDA of $6.2 million in the first quarter, up 370% from $1.7 million in Q1 of 2025, reflecting the continuing leverage in our cost structure as the business scales.
On a GAAP basis, we reported a net loss of $4.4 million in the first quarter of 2026 compared to a net loss of $13.9 million in Q1 of 2025, an improvement of 68% year-over-year, primarily reflecting lower share-based compensation expense and ongoing discipline in our overall compensation program. I'm encouraged about this progress and our continued execution as we continue taking steps to narrow the gap towards GAAP profitability.
Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the first quarter with approximately $276 million of cash, deposits and investments, and continue to carry 0 debt. In addition, we continue to maintain a healthy cash flow model.
In the first quarter, we achieved free cash flow of $9 million. We expect approximately $40 million of positive free cash flow in 2026. During Q1 of 2026, we repurchased approximately 6.2 million shares at an average price per share of $4.44 for total consideration of $27.5 million, which contributed to a reduction of 3% in total shares outstanding.
Since the inception of our buyback program in the fourth quarter of 2023, we have repurchased approximately 58.2 million shares for a total price of $287 million, which helped contribute to a 19% reduction in total shares outstanding over that period.
We believe that our strong balance sheet and liquidity position are strategic assets that provide us with the flexibility to navigate a range of operating environments. We intend to remain disciplined and thoughtful in how we deploy capital to create long-term shareholder value.
And now turning to our outlook. As a result of our first quarter performance, we are raising the low end of our full year guidance range across both metrics. We now anticipate full year revenue to be between $376 million and $384 million or $380 million to the midpoint. This reflects the flow-through of our first quarter revenue performance as well as an incremental rate to our outlook based on the momentum we're seeing in the business. We anticipate all of the quarters in 2026 to reflect a similar percentage of the total revenue as they did in 2025.
We currently expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $28 million and $34 million or $31 million to the midpoint, up from our prior range of $26 million to $34 million. The primary factors that may determine where we fall within each range are consistent with what we shared last quarter, the timing of new merchant go-lives and existing merchant upsells, our success in retaining our merchants and the broader macro environment.
We're pleased with how the year has started. Gross profit grew 13%. We raised the low end of our full year guidance on both revenue and adjusted EBITDA, and we continue to generate meaningful free cash flow. We remain focused on our execution and believe we are well positioned to continue driving profitable growth.
Operator, we're ready to take the first question, please.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Terrell Tillman with Truist.
2. Question Answer
Connor Passarella on for Terrell. Eido, you highlighted the success in ACH-related use cases this quarter, including your largest new logo win. Can you help us understand how materially ACH and other alternative payment methods expand the long-term addressable market for Riskified? And as you move deeper into those workflows, how does the competitive landscape differ versus traditional markets you served?
Sure, Connor. Thanks for the question. The way I would view it is that merchants are looking at an increasingly complex landscape. They need to be able to support both ACH, both digital wallets, both stablecoins, obviously, credit card transactions, other smaller localized payment methods. They need to be able to secure accounts that have stored financials. So there's a lot of dispersion kind of risk vectors that they're looking to solve. And I think that they're looking at, hey, how do we kind of consolidate and create a single best-in-breed vendor that can help us across these various channels.
And we've really seen a lot of success kind of this wider platform that helps solve multiple payment use cases be successful. So in that sense, we actually see ACH and digital payments and some of these other things that I mentioned, they just help us with all payment methods, right? Because there's both some interaction between the types of fraud and that kind of focus on single vendor capabilities.
Great. That's helpful. And then just as a follow-up, you partnered with Shopify for a number of years. And this quarter, you expanded that relationship with the launch of Dispute Resolve for those merchants. As you deepen the integration within the Shopify ecosystem, do you see the partnership becoming a more meaningful growth driver over time from both a customer acquisition and multiproduct adoption standpoint?
I think taking a step back, we've always been very focused on our direct-to-merchant enterprise sales motion. And the reason being some of the configurations and the modeling and the operational environment required to successfully deploy leverage Riskified. And over the past few quarters, as we've been working on it, we've developed what we view to be a best-in-breed reseller and kind of rethought about the distribution channel. And for us, it's kind of making sure that the Riskified platform is easily available to anyone everywhere.
So as part of this strategy, kind of revamping both the capabilities on Shopify, but also thinking about -- we announced the partnership with Radial, which has wider platform components. We announced a deeper integration with Outpayce, Amadeus to enable more travel merchants. So I think it's kind of revamping the distribution channel to make it easier for merchants globally to consume Riskified.
[Operator Instructions] And the next question will come from Ryan Tomasello with KBW.
This is Huan Chong on for Ryan. So nice to see that 50% growth in merchants using more than one solution. Could you maybe share an update on what you're assuming for ancillary non-chargeback product revenue for the year? I think previously, you called out $15 million to $20 million in 2026.
Yes. And we definitely still feel we're still on track to achieve that target. We're very happy with the growth in the kind of multiproduct adoption. It's predominantly being driven by policy and dispute. We see kind of better satisfaction with multiproduct merchants. We see better incremental gross profit, better overall retention. So we think that the strategy is working well.
Great. And also, thanks for sharing details on the new product enhancement. Could you maybe share a sense of how ARIA and the identity database risk scoring tool will be monetized and maybe help us size that opportunity?
Of course. So let me also just recap what ARIA is, right? Let's say you're a fraud manager and you see a dip in approval rates overnight and your CEO is calling you and asking, "Hey, what happened?" You can now, in simple text say, "Hey, why did my approval rate drop by 2% last night?" And you would get a clear explanation. There was a fraud ring with so and so characteristics. You can continue to dive deeper into this fraud ring. And what's unique about this is that both has our network data to allow you to create better insights for your business.
But we've also structured the data in a way that things, like what's an approval rate, what's a fraud ring, it actually makes sense. You can interact with that. And it's been a very clear merchant demand and ask. And right now, we're rolling it out and it's available to every single Riskified customer and the feedback so far has been tremendous on that. So that's on Riskified ARIA.
On the Riskified identity, we've spent a lot of time building our graph database over the past few years. And the graph database separate from linking, what's unique about it is it can do linking and can do multi-hops. And really, this is a way for us to understand identities better and understand is this a reshipper? Is this a shared address with multiple identities and it can create these various identities in real time. And that's very helpful and important for us as we're powering some of the features and the capabilities of products like Policy Protect, right? What's the return ratio of this identity, what's the abuse ratio.
And as we've continued to develop the identity graph and have kind of hundreds and millions of customers there, billions of nodes, we've started thinking how can we expand this? What other value points can this identity graph create to merchants and in consultation with them, one thing that kept coming up is, hey, we have these customer service agents. When they get requests and call-ins, it would be incredibly helpful, if they have some of this identity data in their various consoles.
So our release right now with Rue Gilt Groupe is around their Zendesk console. And now when you call in, agents automatically have Riskified Identity data embedded in that console to make smarter decisions, specifically around returns and refunds right now. But we do see multiple use cases for this moving forward that we believe we will be able to price and have a good revenue contribution from.
And the next question will come from Clark Wright with D.A. Davidson.
First one on my end. As you accelerate the pace of platform innovation and see a ramp in multiproduct adoption, are you beginning to expand beyond the traditional fraud departments and unlock new budgets within organizations?
I mean I think the Rue Guilt Groupe example that I just shared is great because this one is more focused on customer experience and customer support and less directly on fraud. So we are seeing an expansion in those areas. Obviously, the work that we're doing on identity and AI, there's much more engineering and technology orientation than just traditional fraud and payments. So we are starting to touch additional points in the organization. That's a good point.
Got it. And then just wanted to talk about more of the open framework that you talked about in your prepared remarks, with the data graph and being -- opening that database up. What is the strategy there? And longer term, what do you see as kind of the access? Is it primarily just through agents being able to leverage the data that you already have? Or is it through another means? And how does that -- you plan on monetizing that capability?
Sure. So what's unique about the data that we have? We have incredibly rich transactional lifetime data from the time you're browsing on a website from the time you're checking out, from post order flows around returns and refunds. So it's a very rich level of data, with very high level of granularity. And we have it across a network of our largest e-commerce enterprise merchants globally. And not only that we now also have this kind of great relations graph database that we discussed. So it's a very rich updated set of data.
That data can be consumed by third-party services in the kind of merchant native AI examples. This is the data that's being queried where the native AI agent is trying to decide, hey, should I approve a payment, should I initiate a refund for this customer? So that's one example. Another example could be the CRM system or the customer support system that's ingesting this data, so that's a CX agent, whether that's a live agent or kind of an AI agentic agent is kind of decide the point from our perspective. And we do anticipate being able to monetize this.
And I am showing no further questions in the queue at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to the Riskified team for closing remarks.
Okay. Thank you, everyone, for joining our Q1 call. We look forward to updating you in the quarters ahead.
This does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.
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Riskified — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Riskified — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Riskified Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised today's conference is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the call over to your speaker today, Chett Mandel, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
2. Question Answer
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. My name is Chett Mandel, Riskified's Head of Investor Relations. We released our results and are hosting today's call to discuss Riskified's financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025. Our earnings materials, including a replay of today's webcast will be available on our Investor Relations website at ir.riskified.com.
Participating on today's call are Eido Gal, Riskified's Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer; and Agi Dotcheva, Riskified's Chief Financial Officer.
Certain statements made on the call today will be forward-looking statements related to without limitation, our operating performance, business and financial goals outlook as to revenues, gross profit margin, adjusted EBITDA profitability, adjusted EBITDA margins and expectations as to positive cash flows, which reflect management's best judgment based on currently available information and are not guarantees of future performance. We intend all forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements reflect our expectations as of the date of this call, and except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to revise this information as a result of new developments that may occur after the time of this call.
These forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond our control that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. You should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statement. Please refer to our annual report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2024, and subsequent reports we filed or furnished with the SEC for more information on the specific factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations.
Additionally, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures and key performance indicators on the call. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings release issued earlier today and also furnished with the SEC on Form 6-K and in the appendix of our Investor Relations presentation, all of which are posted on our Investor Relations website.
I will now turn the call over to Eido.
Thanks, Chett, and hello, everyone. We ended the year strong, and this momentum positions us for continued success in 2026. Our fourth quarter non-GAAP gross profit of $57.3 million represented strong year-over-year growth of 16% and our adjusted EBITDA of $17.7 million translated to a margin of 18%, demonstrating the scale and strength of the business. This quarterly amount alone exceeded our full year adjusted EBITDA of $17.2 million in '24.
Our fourth quarter revenues of nearly $100 million were a record since conception and contributed to our first ever quarter of GAAP profitability. These results are the culmination of consistent, high-quality execution across the year.
In '25, both annual dollar retention, or ADR, and net dollar retention, or NDR, improved year-over-year. ADR reached approximately 100%, up from 96% and NDR significantly improved to 105% from 96% in '24.
Our go-to-market team had another successful year with particularly strong results in the fourth quarter of '25. During the quarter, we won the highest quarterly amount of new business since our IPO, which represented approximately 55% of the total new business won for the year and was driven by high competitive win rates of over 75%. This year, we won and onboarded several leaders across industries and geographies, including Arena Star Peru, A Bounce, Adastria, ACE hardware, Vans, Kassam, David's Bridal, Nedis, Nintendo, Temu, TripAdvisor and XTO. In addition, merchants such as Iberia Airlines, Meta, Fast Retailing, Viva Airbus, Vivid Seats and ZEP were all up sold in '25 after landing on the platform over the past few years. We believe this demonstrates the power and ROI that our platform delivers to our merchants once onboarded on to the Riskified network.
We have processed approximately $750 billion in GMV and have over 1 billion unique customer interactions in our network sense inception. I believe that this data moat has created a structural competitive advantage and that we are well positioned to capture even more of the large opportunity in front of us. That is why we are focusing our efforts on deepening our geographic presence and growing faster in our newer verticals while identifying additional verticals to penetrate for continued market share gains.
From a geographic standpoint, our non-U.S. regions collectively grew 22% year-over-year, driving faster, more diversified growth. Notably, APAC and LATAM were key regions of outperformance. We plan to expand further in these regions by developing localized products and features to boost pipeline generation.
We have scaled our presence in the payments and money transfer category as evidenced by 66% growth in '24, 90% growth in '25. Based on the current pipeline and the annualization of new business won in '25 in this vertical, I expect another strong year of activity in '26. And as we capture more data on payment types, leading to more fine models and bespoke features targeted to this vertical, I believe we are positioned to continue penetrating the significant white space.
According to recent industry studies, there was a 27% year-over-year increase in fraud losses related to online transactions. The total losses attributed to fraud are expected to more than double over the next 5 years, well outpacing the expected growth of e-commerce. In addition, over 2/3 of U.S. companies experienced an increase in AI related fraud attempt in '25. We are witnessing escalating complexity of fraud schemes, which now target every touch point across the customer journey from account creation and stored value credentials, all the way through the return, customer service and dispute portals. Every part of the transaction process is at risk.
Progress varies across payment types, including ACH, credit cards, digital wallets, crypto and stable coins, agentic checkout and other methods. We need to be prepared to support and manage risk across the full payment landscape. We are leveraging the capabilities of our AI ecosystem that has been continuously advanced for over a decade.
This increase in fraud has further elevated Riskified's role, solidifying our positioning as a key partner for our merchants. I believe that the combination of a more pronounced and complicated fraud landscape, enhanced platform features and functionality and a deliberate effort to expand the top of our deal funnel has contributed to an increase in our new business lead generation of approximately 50% year-over-year.
Furthermore, in line with our expectations at the beginning of the year, I am pleased that we generated nearly $10 million in aggregate annual revenues from Policy Protect, Account Secure and Dispute Resolve in '25, and we plan to continue to grow our revenues outside of our core fraud services in '26.
As we have expanded our offering, the benefits of having a robust platform are becoming even more pronounced. First, we saw an approximately 50% increase in the number of merchants who are now using more than one product during the year. Multiproduct approach has made us stickier. Second, each transaction process across our suite of products strengthens our flywheel by expanding the breadth and depth of our data sets. This integrated data set compounds across the network, enhancing our identity engine and enabling us to develop dynamic components that can be utilized across the platform. Third, these cross-platform synergies lead to better performance for our merchants. And the strong performance with differentiated capabilities allowed us to regularly outperform our competition. And fourth, merchants utilizing more than one product generally leads to higher contribution profit for those merchants.
This is part of the reason why in '26, we are focused on driving gross profit growth versus optimizing primarily for revenue growth. As Agli will discuss shortly, we expect non-GAAP gross profit growth to accelerate to double digits at the midpoint in '26, demonstrating the continued leverage in our model.
Now on to a very topical theme, artificial intelligence. Allow me to discuss how we are observing AI impacting the market and how Riskified's product platform and internal operations are positioned for success in this environment. There are 2 main dynamics that we are seeing. First is the increased utilization of agentic commerce through general purpose LLMs, but still primarily only for discovery purposes and not checkout. The second is the rise of merchant native LLMs, which are advanced agents within a merchant's ecosystem designed to handle the full shopping journey from answering inquiries, to completing the purchase, closing the loop completely within their ecosystem. Both flows present unique transaction risks that our platform aims to solve.
In the first agentic flow, when customers do use general purpose LLMs for checkout, we have seen instances where fraudsters utilize AI to throw agentic traffic off script by generating synthetic IDs to bypass LLM verification. Our internal estimates indicate that approximately 30% to 40% of essential model features are lost when consumers transact through general purpose LLMs, increasing risk and escalating the prevalence of fraud like this. To combat this, we strive to help merchants by providing clear visibility into agentic traffic and emerging fraud MOs that they don't otherwise have on their own, proactively adjusting models based on low signal environments, segmenting order flows and rapidly developing features to identify emerging agentic fraud MOs.
In the second flow, merchants are building out their AI shopping assistance to offer deep personalization and loyalty programs based on customer preferences. Riskified provides a critical risk intelligence layer that helps make these transactions both smart and secure. This is especially critical when those interactions have financial implications. An example of this is providing merchant native AI agents with real-time risk signals while they are in the conversation with customers to offer instant refund or exchange decisions based on that individual customer's risk and eligibility. Because Riskified analyzes the complete purchase history of the end customer across an expansive global network of e-commerce brands, including exact product list, SKUs and cross-merchant behaviors, we can provide highly differentiated data that merchants cannot otherwise access on their own. We are able to provide a decision platform for their agents to make important and accurate financial decisions.
We are excited about the continuous expansion and enhancement of our agentic commerce offering. Merchants are actively preparing and ready to support agentic commerce across its various forms and flows. Our ability to not only service the dynamic needs of an evolving market but also to innovate in real time is generating an increase in merchant dialogue. I believe that this strategic engagement is a driver for our future business pipeline and growth.
Internally, we continue to adopt AI to automate and scale complex business workflows across departments. This is intended to help drive operational efficiency and productivity, lower costs, improve response times and enhanced service delivery. For our engineering teams, AI has become a force multiplier. Our developers have moved from basic coding assistance to agentic systems that span the entire development life cycle, from discovery and requirements assessment to automated root cause analysis for production alerts.
In addition, by using agentic floats for code review and observability, we are reducing technical debt while increasing release velocity. The impact on productivity is measurable. Between Q2 and Q4 of '25, many of our engineers saw more than 2x increase in tickets completed. This enables us to focus on developing new product enhancements and features and to test, train and deploy them more efficiently, strengthening our relationships with the hundreds of enterprise merchants in our network.
We are seeing similar functional leverage across the other business units in finance and analytics. We have moved several initiatives into production to automate processes that reduce human error and manual labor and the go-to-market team has found success utilizing LLMs to drive merchant inbounds and high-end dead queries. We've also developed agents that automate time-consuming cost benefit analysis of merchant prospecting, minimizing manual work to drive quicker and more accurate outreach. And while we are getting leverage from general purpose LLMs in our own business, I don't believe that those same LLMs pose a true threat to our decision engine.
In our view, LLMs lack calibration and the precise probability intervals required for fraud engines. Additionally, LLMs are optimized for text and image while traditional AI fraud models like ours are much better at analyzing structured data inputs. That includes browsing behavior, account activity, checkout data and post fulfillment signals for every transaction. Our models learn from over 5 billion historical nonpublic merchant network transactions that have been labeled intact. With this data, we create, update and continuously deploy features to be used by our models that solve the increasing complexities of fraud. To that end, as we announced yesterday, we have recently developed features to address this problem.
Within our Policy Protect decision studio, merchants are able to identify and apply business rules to manage the risk of order volume coming from their native AI shopping agents. This control will allow merchants to confidently deploy their branded conversational AI agents without exposing themselves to programmatic refund claim abuse, reseller arbitrage or promotional abuse. We also expanded our AI agent identity signals, allowing a merchant's AI shopping agent to directly query Riskified identity graph to retrieve associated risk indicators and resolve an identity programmatically.
The breadth and sophistication of our platform allows us to train, test and deploy merchant or payment-specific models. We also use this platform to retrain models with updated data, new features and segment calibrations to protect from emerging fraud patterns across our network.
All this helps us drive optimized merchant performance, which at the end of the day is the key driver of merchant satisfaction. Our ability to rapidly adapt in the face of a shifting landscape does more than just protect our merchants. I believe it serves as the foundation for our sustained financial strength and disciplined execution.
Over the past 2 years, we have repurchased shares, representing approximately 2/3 of our current enterprise value. Based on our current expectations of improved free cash flow of approximately $40 million in we anticipate generating a free cash flow yield of approximately 10% relative to our current enterprise value.
Looking ahead, I believe that our momentum remains strong. As a reflection of our confidence in Riskified's long-term trajectory, I am pleased to announce that our Board has authorized an additional $75 million share repurchase program. This decision reflects our conviction in the fundamentals of the business, supported by strong free cash flow, a debt-free balance sheet and a disciplined capital allocation strategy that we believe will prove beneficial for our shareholders.
I want to thank our team again for their focus and strong execution against our '25 financial plan. Our results reflected the top of our revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges and we entered '26 in a position to accelerate our performance even further.
Now over to Agi.
Thank you, Eido, and everyone, for joining today's call. Unless otherwise noted, this discussion will reference non-GAAP financial measures. We have provided a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures in our earnings release.
We achieved fourth quarter revenue of $99.3 million and full year revenue of $344.6 million, up 6% and 5% year-over-year, respectively. And while we don't plan on reporting our billings going forward, our fourth quarter billings of $103.3 million grew 9% year-over-year.
Our fourth quarter GMV of $46.7 billion was the highest quarter of volume reviewed in our history and represented growth of 18% as compared to the prior year period. For the full year of 2025, our GMV grew by 10% to $155.1 billion.
During the fourth quarter, revenue growth was partially driven by strong performance in our travel vertical, reflecting continued momentum from the third quarter. These gains were partially offset by softness in our ticket and live event subvertical, which declined year-over-year, primarily due to tougher second half comparable periods versus 2024's record level of activity and larger live events. Overall, the total tickets and travel vertical was slightly positive in the period.
Our money transfer and payments category grew 75% year-over-year, driven by new business wins and upsell activity.
Our fashion, cosmetics and luxury vertical grew 8% year-over-year. This was primarily driven by new business and upsell activity and 11% growth during the Black Friday through Cyber Monday period. This growth was partially offset by continued same-store sales pressure in our high-end and sneakers sub-verticals, similar to the first 9 months of the year. That being said, for the second quarter in a row, we did see year-over-year improvements in some of our largest merchants in this category.
Lastly, I'm encouraged that we reverted to a year-over-year growth in home category as we have now fully lapped the dynamic that impacted the first 9 months of 2025.
For the year, our money transfer and payments, fashion and luxury, tickets and travel categories were the largest contributors to our annual revenue growth. The combination of these verticals represented nearly 80% of total billings and are each expected to drive continued growth in 2026. For the full year, revenue in the United States declined 6% year-over-year, primarily as a result of the contraction in our home category. Encouragingly, we continue to grow across all of our non-U.S. regions with accelerated year-over-year growth as compared to 2024.
During 2025, APAC grew approximately 53% year-over-year, while other Americas, which represents Canada and Latin America, grew approximately 13% year-over-year, primarily driven by the momentum in new business and upsell activity with particular strength in the travel vertical.
EMEA grew approximately 18% year-over-year with the strongest performance concentrated in our money transfer and payments, tickets and travel and fashion and luxury verticals, supported by both new business and upsell momentum.
Our revenue derived from merchants headquartered outside of the U.S. was 46% in 2025, up from 39% in 2024. We believe that our continued international growth reflects ongoing progress in capturing global market share.
During the fourth quarter, we achieved record quarterly gross profit of $57.3 million, up 16% from the prior year and $180.3 million for the full year, representing a year-over-year growth of 4%. The full year gross profit growth of 4% was driven by meaningful improvements in our core machine learning models with great performance in our money transfer and payments category and within our 2024 cohort, which delivered the most pronounced year-over-year improvement across cohorts.
Our increased revenue from new products further contributed to our growth. This improvement was partially offset by the ramping of merchants in newer geographies such as Latin America and weaker performance in our 2022 cohort, which while still maturing, has yet to reach the performance levels of the broader portfolio.
As a reminder, I encourage you to continue analyzing our gross profit on an annual basis, given individual quarters can vary due to the various factors, including the ramping of new merchants and the risk profiles of transactions approved.
As it relates to 2026 for the full year, we're targeting non-GAAP gross profit growth of 7% to 12%, with each quarter at or near 10% growth at the midpoint. In addition, we estimate that each quarter in 2026 will approximate the same percentage of the total as they did in 2025.
Moving to our operating expenses. We continue to manage the business in a focused and disciplined manner. Total operating expenses were $39.6 million of the fourth quarter and $153.6 million for the full year, representing a decline of 2% from 2024. Our operating expenses as a percentage of revenue declined from 48% in 2024 to 45% in 2025, reflecting leverage in the business model.
We ended 2025 with 670 global employees, a decline of 3% from the prior year. This was achieved through the increased utilization of artificial intelligence tools to maximize output and increase efficiency and by strategically reducing headcount in areas that were less critical to our product development and growth strategy. Despite this nominal decline, we ended the year with an increase in our development capacity, which we believe is critical to advancing platform innovation, outperforming our competition and improving product accuracy and customer service to deepen our merchant relationships.
In 2026, we anticipate quarterly expenses to approximate $41 million to $42 million per quarter in the first half of the year and $42 million to $43 million per quarter in the second half. The primary driver of the increase from 2025 relates to FX headwind, mainly from the appreciation of the radical compared to the U.S. dollar. The FX headwind is approximately 400 basis points to our annual adjusted EBITDA margin. On a constant currency basis, we anticipate relatively flat expenses year-over-year as we continue to manage the business in a disciplined manner.
We achieved adjusted EBITDA of $17.7 million in the fourth quarter, the highest quarterly amount in our history, which translates to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18%. We believe that this quarter's results demonstrate that the business is positioned for continued adjusted EBITDA margin expansion and can achieve scaled performance like this over time. For the full year, our adjusted EBITDA was $26.7 million, representing a year-over-year increase of over 55%.
On a GAAP basis, we achieved net profit of $5.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 as compared with negative $4.1 million in the prior year. I'm encouraged about the progress that we have made on achieving profitability on both GAAP and adjusted EBITDA basis.
Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the year with approximately $298 million of cash, deposits and investments and continue to carry 0 debt. In addition, we continue to maintain a healthy cash flow model. In the fourth quarter, we achieved free cash flows of $10.7 million and $33.1 million for the full year. Looking ahead, I'm encouraged that we expect our free cash flow to increase at least 20% and be approximately $40 million in 2026.
During 2025, we repurchased approximately 22 million shares for a total price of $105.9 million, which contributed to a reduction of 8% in shares outstanding. Since the inception of our buyback program in the fourth quarter of 2023, we have repurchased approximately 52 million shares for a total price of $259.5 million, which helped contribute to a 17% reduction in shares outstanding over that time period.
As Eido mentioned, I'm excited to announce that our Board of Directors has authorized up to an additional $75 million of share repurchases, subject to the satisfaction of this regulatory requirements. When combined with amounts that remain available under our existing share repurchase authorization, our total outstanding authorization is approximately $84 million.
We believe that our strong balance sheet and liquidity position are strategic assets that provide us with the flexibility to navigate a range of operating environments. We intend to remain disciplined and thoughtful in how we deploy capital to create long-term shareholder value.
On the topic of share-based compensation and earnings per share. Share-based compensation expense of $51.6 million, declined from $57.8 million in the prior year. As a percentage of revenue, this amount decreased by approximately 300 basis points from 2024 levels. This was on top of a decline of 700 basis points over the prior 2 years. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect absolute share-based compensation dollars and as a percent of revenue to continue declining due to the gradual roll-off expense associated with large grants made in 2021 and 2022, as the awards fully vest throughout 2026.
Our total absolute share-based compensation dollars should approximate $40 million for the year. We expect our free cash flow generation to approximate our share-based compensation in the year. Our annual non-GAAP diluted net profit per share of $0.20 represents an increase of 18% in 2025.
Now turning to our outlook. As we look forward to 2026, we currently anticipate revenue of between $372 million and $384 million, representing growth of 8% to 11% within $378 million or 10% to the midpoint. Consistent with past years, we anticipate that our growth will continue to be driven primarily by new business activity and at the midpoint of our guidance, we're forecasting a similar net dollar retention rate as in 2025.
We currently expect all of the quarters in 2026 to reflect a similar percentage of the total revenue as they did in 2025 and growth to accelerate sequentially with each quarter throughout the year. The behavior of the micro environment, our success in retaining our merchants and the level of upsell activity relative to new logo wins only impact our net dollar retention rate and ultimately determine where we fall within our revenue range.
In addition, we feel confident about the new business activity levels, which is supported by a robust pipeline of new opportunities. Historically, the timing of when new merchants go live during the year can be difficult to predict and may have an impact on our calendar year revenues. As always, we will continue to monitor the performance and health of our merchants. Consumer spending and the broader e-commerce landscape and the impact on our results.
Now let me discuss our adjusted EBITDA outlook. We currently expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $26 million and $34 million or $30 million to the midpoint, representing a margin of 8%. This is inclusive of an approximate 400 basis point FX headwind to our adjusted EBITDA margin.
Overall, I'm encouraged by our AI advantage, market position and I'm confident that we can continue to execute on the elements within our operational control. We remain focused on identifying and executing on the many opportunities for long-term growth and our ability to deliver value to our shareholders.
Operator, we're ready to take the first question, please.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Terry Tillman with Truist Securities.
Congrats Eido, Agi and Chett. The first question, and hopefully, you can bear with me because it's so topical around agentic commerce. It's a multi-partner, and then I'll have a follow-up question. As it relates to agentic. I appreciate kind of how you talked about 2 types of kind of agentic use cases. I'm curious if you can quantify any early GMV from those 2 different scenarios? And then also, what would the monetization or take rate look like in transactions in that type of flow? And then how many merchants are you actually actively working with that are just trying this out at this point? And then I had a follow-up.
Sure. Terry, so I'll take that. So maybe taking a step back, right? We feel we're an advantage -- in a great position to talk to over 50 publicly traded companies and really understand what their agentic commerce strategy is. And the way they're laying it out to us is pretty clearly, there are 2 main flows. The first flow, what we call the merchant native AI agents where they continue to own the relationship with the customer. And I think they have a lot of -- shows a lot of promise in their mind, right? And here, you would have an AI agent on their website that can support the entire life cycle from discovery to check out, to returns and customer support interaction. And this entire experience is happening in their website.
So if they're a luxury fashion merchant, they can have the right type of images and product descriptions and kind of flows and recommendations. If they're an OTA, they can have the right type of filters that are appropriate for kind of traveling and routing. So I think they're putting a lot of emphasis on that area. What we're seeing there is, because LLMs are really -- it's easy to challenge them and get them to move off script and make financial decisions, that you did not intend them to make, we're serving really this guarded or intelligence layer that they're querying in real time to understand, "Hey, should I approve this transaction, what type of free fund should I provide to this customer?" And we're just really leveraging the entire network that we already have, making it even more unique, the value that we're providing in there. So that's kind of the merchant native AI agent.
The second flow is more kind of the general purpose LLM where it can either act as a good referral or do the purchasing on behalf of the consumer. There, to be clear, we're seeing predominantly referrals. Actually seeing agent traffic and purchasing is still extremely low and limited. From a take rate perspective, on the general purpose LLMs, we are seeing higher risk traffic there right now. So again, even if it's very small, whenever you have some of these New York flows broad tends to come in, because there's more limited data, there's lack of experience. There's less guardrails and controls in most cases. And so I think on average, the take rate there will probably be higher right now. But over time, that might kind of shift.
And just a more general question around traffic, I think merchants are in a stage where they're trying to prepare and make sure that they're ready for the changes and put their best foot forward, but the traffic is probably not there yet.
Very helpful. And I guess just a follow-up, maybe for Agi. -- it's helpful when you go through the different segments that you're serving in the growth rates. Money Transfer and payments, it was another exceptional year of growth as you're onboarding strategic accounts and they're growing. I'm curious, though, do you see that outsized type growth continuing in your guide for '26 on money transfer and payments versus the other end markets?
Terry, so money transfers and payments was an amazing category for us as the growth was really, really strong. Kind of looking into 2026, we have a number of opportunities in the pipeline. And I expect the category to continue to grow, but probably just to normalize in terms of like the total amount of growth.
Our next question comes from Ryan Tomasello with KBW.
Just following up on the Agenda Commerce topic. Can you talk about how you think about the potential for rising adoption there to either structurally reduce or increase the level of fraud in the system over the long run, notwithstanding kind of early days here? And then just your thoughts on the potential second order impacts. There's a lot of talk on agentic agents -- agentic AI agents utilizing alternative payments rails like stable coins, just how you view that also impacting the structure of the system here.
Ryan, sure. Look, I think what we're seeing is that in order to be good at online commerce and payments specifically, you need to be doing a lot of things well. And right now, something like that, it is agentic kind of commerce. And you can add crypto and stable coin. So if historically, you would need to be able to manage credit cards and credit card acceptance you now need to be able to support ACH and digital wallets and crypto and stable coins and the agentic checkout.
And with agentic, we're talking about a few different flows. And you don't just need to think about just the checkout yields, I need to think about account creation and account login and you probably have some stored value in the account that people can transfer in and out. You obviously have the checkout experience, but you also have all these various post-checkout flows, returns, refunds, leveraging different discount codes and abusing that. You have the entire chargeback process, which is different between credit cards and ACH, check all the chargeback there, it's insufficient funds and you have issues around scans that are popping up.
So I think we're seeing an increase in complexity. And I would just tie in the agentic checkout into that overall increase in complexity, and we're seeing an overall increase in losses within the merchant ecosystem. And I think that as merchants are trying to solve these different use cases in these various fraud patterns. It just becomes more complicated, more quickly. So I think that's kind of a net benefit to risk of it is. We see this more complex environment increasing in the years ahead. On a bit more targeted and specifically on agentic, like we just mentioned, we do see an increase in fraud right now in agentic channel, specifically when you have general purpose LLMs.
It could be a combination because it's newer and fraud tends to shift to that area, and there's less control and saving there. So hard to say how that would kind of behave in kind of the quarters and years ahead as it gains more traction. But as of now, it's probably kind of net incremental to general take rates.
Great. Appreciate that. And then just an update, if you can provide on the mid-market expansion strategy, how that plays into your 2026 growth and just broader investment plans in that category?
Yes. I think one of the unique things about Riskified targeting the enterprises is that we're able to really customized to a high level, the modeling and the performance for each individual merchant. As we've been getting much better at completely automating the entire life cycle of doing that, I think that's going to present opportunities to kind of continue and find this model in more of a down market and referral strategy. That's not something that's expected within our guide for the year. So the more we can accelerate that, that would be upside to current guidance.
Our next question comes from Will Nance with Goldman Sachs.
And first of all, I hope all the teammates in Israel are at home and safe. I wanted to ask also on the agentic kind of topic of the day. I was wondering if you could just speak to status on integrating into some of the latest agentic protocols, we the kind of ICP strive, UCP Google and any of the other relevant ones. I know a big part of the model is kind of taking all the different signals from the user behavior in those channels. So just maybe wondering if you could speak to that and maybe shed a little bit more light on kind of like the value of the data that might come through those protocols and detecting fraud vectors?
Yes. I think -- by the way, and thank you for mentioning kind of the teammate in Israel. We appreciate that. I think the issue right now that the market is seeing is, to your point, there are a wide number of multiple protocols. And some of them, I think it's clear that they're already outdated in the month, maybe quarters ahead, there will be new protocols that are probably even kind of more updated that. So obviously, internally, we're doing everything we can to support everyone in that ecosystem, whether it's kind of AI agent approval, AWS marketplace, Google A2A protocol, just general rest APIs. We do see ourselves requiring to have that full spectrum to make sure we cover everything. Unfortunately, we do anticipate a somewhat continued fragmented approach here. So I think it's still early to say if there's anyone who's going to be a clear winner in that area. So there will probably need to be some kind of optimization between the various protocols.
Got it. That makes sense. And maybe just one for Agi. The FX headwind on the margin it's helpful quantifying that. Could you just remind us of the -- it sounds like it's the FX exposure in the cost base that we should be thinking about there, shekel and otherwise. I was wondering if you could just kind of update us on major currency waiting as we try to fine-tune the model.
Yes, I will. So I mean, first of all, I'm so excited about the quarter, the guide kind of the returning back to double-digit growth. And if I think about the FX headwinds, we kind of spelled it out, it's approximately 400 basis points or $14 million to adjusted EBITDA. And it's frustrating. I mean, over the years, we kind of focused and we kind of ran on a flat expense base for a period of time. And this FX headwind is really obscuring some of the progress. But the truth is that the underlying business momentum is strong and will continue to focus on optimizing. We'll continue to focus on growth, and I'm just excited about 2026.
Our next question comes from Chris Kennedy with William Blair.
Great. I'll just echo Will's comment regarding Israel. The revenues from newer products, policy protect account secure doubled in 2025. Can you talk about kind of the opportunity for that set of products in 2026?
Sure. So maybe just to refer back to kind of Ryan's question where we said, "Hey, we're seeing an increase in complexity forms of fraud." We're seeing it across different channels like ACH, digital wallets, stable coins, agentic checkout. And we're seeing it happen in different parts of the kind of shopping experience, not just checkout, but also account creation and abusive policy rules and things around dispute management. All this to say, I think it's leading to an environment where there is kind of more demand and more value and just basically more necessity for merchants to leverage the wider product platform.
So if I think about the revenue that we anticipate from kind of Policy, Account Secure, Dispute Resolve, some of the non-guaranteed payment flows that we now work with merchants on anywhere from $15 million to $20 million in '26, I think, is a good range at this point.
Right. And then just one for Agi. If you think about the 2024 cohort, the CTB ratio really improved. Can you give us a little bit more color on what drove that improvement there?
Yes, of course. I'm very excited about some of the improvements of this cohort, and we can sell already the result of that in Q4. So there's kind of some merchants there they're specifically about the money transfer and payment category. And we were able to kind of do significantly better there. It's kind of evident in the cohort. And I think it's like a great base for some of the merchants that are in the pipeline there and just continuing to kind of optimize incoming merchants as well.
Our next question comes from Timothy Chiodo with UBS.
This one -- we brought this up in the past, but I thought it would be a good 1 just to check in on to see if anything is different in the agentic channel. My guess, it's the same. But the question is really the services that you're providing to merchants, do you consider them and/or see them operating in addition to value-added services coming from the card networks or instead of value-added services coming from the card networks?
Tim. So sorry, could you rephrase our services in addition to the services from the card networks?
Sure. So if a merchant is working with Riskified, are they using Riskified in addition to some of the fraud-related value-added services coming from the card networks? Or are they using Riskified instead of some of the fraud tools that are coming from the card networks?
Okay. Thank you for clarifying. So look, I think there's no direct comparable in the stack of the card service providers right now to the spectrum of Riskified. One of them has more data-related features. So I think there a Master Card acquired a Cat, Visa probably has a Visa Verify. So those are kind of what we consider data features. One of them has a more older generation scoring tool that we don't really view as competitive. No one has a Policy Product. Definitely no one has kind of what we would consider a modern machine learning type solution for fraud prevention. I think the Dispute Product, also there's nothing comparable. On the Account side, there's nothing comparable. If you think about support for ACH, crypto, stable coin on kind of the FIA conversion and account storage, there's nothing comparable. On agentic checkout, there's definitely nothing that we've seen comparable to some of the releases we've recently made.
So I think overall, it's -- on the venn diagram, it's pretty and different. There could be different services that they provide maybe more towards the financial institutions, anything around tokenization and rails for really secure. That's less in our wheelhouse. But hopefully, that gives kind of a good mapping of what we do that they don't do.
Excellent. That's a great answer. My follow-up is around -- you were talking around some of the other forms of payment, whether it be account to account, basically alternative payment methods in general. I know that it's early, but in your experience and with your position in the industry, do you have any reason to believe that the card mix within the agentic channel would be any different than the card mix is in traditional e-commerce? So whatever you believe the mix is to be in traditional e-commerce, do you think through the agentic channel that it would be roughly the same, maybe the card mix is a little lower or maybe the card mix is a little higher? And what would be the reason that would lead you to believe the answer to the question?
Yes. Thank you. I think that's a great question and obviously a lot of debate on that. I think there are specific industries in probably payments, remittance, kind of brokerages, which would probably see an increase over time on whether it's kind of a stable coins, crypto, those are also direct ACH connections just because exchange fees, FX rates, everything that we know. So I think they're probably is the potential for more to migrate maybe with long-term subscriptions as things like ACH and others become easier, maybe merchants would have an easier time transferring some customers for kind of various discounts to that area.
But overall, by and large, in most categories, I would not anticipate a shift. I think that overall consumer preference for cards or rewards continues to be incredibly high, and I think merchants adapt to that. I don't see that changing based on kind of the LLM channel or merchant native AI agents. I think merchants already have the ability to capture with extremely low interchange fees, debit cards. I think when you think about things like reward cards, the customer gets so much value from that, they have a clear preference. I think large merchants also have the ability to issue their own reward cards and take a meaningful portion of that interchange fee and usually through agreements with kind of network or issuers also take some kind of the potential float or value of kind of installments or like payments there.
So from an ecosystem perspective, I think cards are still around to stay in most categories, but there's probably a few specific areas where we'll see an increased adoption in alternative payments. And I don't see a clear difference between kind of general purpose LLMs or merchant native AI that would make them specifically work on kind of stable coins or anything else relative to the existing rails.
Our next question comes from Reggie Smith with JPMorgan.
Congrats on the quarter and achieving GAAP profitability. I got another question about agentic as well. So I did, and I appreciate that there's not a lot of transaction flow coming from, I guess, third-party LLMs today, and so it's early days. definitely get that. But I'm thinking about someone asked earlier about like how pricing may work here. I'm curious just like how that would roll out in general.
And specifically, like when merchants need separate contracts more agentic or would it just be rolled into their standard e-commerce that occurs in our website. And then kind of beyond that, as you think about this new surface and these new potential risks, like how are you -- does that give you any pause at all or concern around like what early losses could be like? And what kind of differentiates you there, given that you won't have like a 13-year head start or back-testing history that you have on the traditional commerce side? So just curious like how you're thinking about that and like tactically how this could actually roll out to customers and yes.
Sure. Thanks, Reggie. That's a great question. So I think there are 2 ways this can go. One is with the client that's on various submission plans and not getting everything right now to Riskified. And usually, they would proactively come and say, "Hey, we're opening up this agentic channel or we're seeing some initial kind of traffic or maybe we're even reaching out to them." And then they say, we would want you to manage this definitely as -- who are not prepared to do that. And we've seen some of the larger clients that we work with approach us proactively with that. We're also in contact directly with some of our other merchants. And the pricing there, it's just slightly more flexible pricing to start. I think merchants are very open to having a higher price initially, both because they understand there's an increased fraud in this day 1 and also because the absolute dollar amounts are still so small. It's less of an issue. And obviously, we would kind of better negotiate mutually the fees once we understand the actual risk profile and the volume there. So that's one instance.
The other one is merchants that already exist and are providing all their volumes of Riskified. Yes, it continues to be the case that we would just see this traffic. And based on the risk profile there, if there's a significant increase, we might need to have a discussion with the merchant what that means from a commercial perspective.
As I think about how do we anticipate some of this fraud, on the one hand, you're right to say that it's still early stage and a single merchant might only see a single transaction. But by that same token, we're seeing it across the network of some of the largest merchants, and we're seeing some of the newer fraud MOs happen. And if you think about our system overall, what's unique and great about our system is that we're able to see fraud MOs in real time in one place and then adapt features or create new segments and deploy that relatively quickly to other parts in the model.
So even though this is something that's kind of newer, our system really is adapt at learning new fraud rings, new fraud MOs, and pushing updates to the rest of the system based on that. It's what we've done is we've expanded into Lat Am into kind of other APAC regions, and you can continue to see that. I think Agi mentioned on some of the PPP cohort some of that continued quick improvements there and agentic behaves the same, right? There's like new fraud trends, you need to stop with leading there and then solve it for the rest of the portfolio.
Got it. Okay. And if I could ask one quick one on kind of FX. I appreciate that you guys are paid in dollars. But I was curious, is there any FX benefit, the GMV growth next year? Or is that in U.S. dollars as well? FX was not much strong suit. Is there anything you could share there would be helpful.
Reggie, I'll take this one. So specifically, the way I kind of view the FX, the fluctuations over the years have been able that we were able to absorb, specifically this year, where I see the FX impact and kind of isolated it in this 400 basis points. Effect on adjusted EBITDA is around the strengthening of the Israeli currency, the shekel versus the dollar. And since half of our expenses approximately are in Israel, it's impacting it more materially. So that's the main kind of FX impact that I talked about, it's worth mentioning. Without this, as I mentioned, on a constant currency basis, our expenses would have been flat year-over-year.
Got it. And so I guess just to put a finer point on it. Will there be a FX tailwind to revenue from the dollar just being weaker in general? Clearly, you've isolated the expense side, but I'm just curious, like is there anything we should think about at the revenue line?
On the revenue line, it's probably much minor. I'd imagine it's, if anything, probably from the euro, but that will be probably less than 0.5%, and it's something that's we've already incorporated in projections as kind of like we're basing our projections on what we see today.
Our next question comes from Clark Wright with D.A. Davidson.
Agi, on the beginning -- or I believe this is actually might be Eido, you spoke about the fact that your strategy is more oriented going forward on gross profit growth versus revenue growth. What does that mean from a go-to-market perspective and your risk tolerance for specific product categories?
Yes. Thanks for that question. Look, we've seen internally, I mean, we've always focused as a management team on gross profit, gross profit dollars, gross profit dollar growth. but it's probably been more of a focus recently over the past few quarters and will be over the next few quarters, just because we're seeing more demand and more bundling strategies for the kind of wider product portfolio. And overall, there's a different margin profile within those products. So for us, it's clear, we really want to focus on the gross profit dollars and that growth.
From a sales perspective, anything from how they target accounts to how they think about -- how we think about commission structures is more oriented in this direction now.
Awesome. Appreciate that. And then just on another topic that was already discussed partially earlier, but I just wanted to understand the penetration rate on the nonchargeback guarantee products and the assumptions that you have for the 2026 guide. You referenced the $15 million to $20 million. But what does that mean in terms of the overall customer base and their willingness to accept or to adopt these offerings?
Yes. I think we shared in the script that we were seeing good progress of over...
Around 50%.
Around 50% kind of increase in adoption. We haven't really spelled it out by the specific product or what's dual product, what struggle product. We'll think about the best way to represent that to make it easier for investors to follow. But right now, we think that kind of revenue is probably the best proxy for that. And like we mentioned, went from -- I think it was really low single-digit millions to $10 million, and we think we can continue to grow that to $15 million to $20 million this year.
And I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Eido for any further remarks.
Thank you. Just before I conclude, I want to send my support to our team members in Israel and their families. Thank everyone for their hard work. And with that, just thank you, everyone, for joining us on today's call. I look forward to continuing to update you on our progress throughout the year.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.
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Riskified — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Riskified — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Riskified Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Chett Mandel, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. My name is Chett Mandel, Riskified's Head of Investor Relations. We are hosting today's call to discuss Riskified's financial results for the third quarter of 2025. Participating on today's call are Eido Gal, Riskified's Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer; and Aglika Dotcheva, Riskified's Chief Financial Officer. We released our results for the third quarter of 2025 earlier today. Our earnings materials, including a replay of today's webcast, will be available on our Investor Relations website at ir.riskified.com.
Certain statements made on the call today will be forward-looking statements related to, without limitation, our operating performance, business and financial goals, outlook as to revenues, gross profit margin, adjusted EBITDA profitability, adjusted EBITDA margins and expectations as to positive cash flows, which reflect management's best judgment based on currently available information and are not guarantees of future performance. We intend all forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements reflect our expectations as of the date of this call, and except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to revise this information as a result of new developments that may occur after the time of this call.
These forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties, and other factors, some of which are beyond our control that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. You should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. Please refer to our annual report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2024, and subsequent reports we file or furnish with the SEC for more information on the specific factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations.
Additionally, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures and key performance indicators on the call. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings release issued earlier today and also furnished with the SEC on Form 6-K and in the appendix of our Investor Relations presentation, all of which are posted on our Investor Relations website.
I will now turn the call over to Eido.
Thanks, Chett, and hello, everyone. We've built solid momentum this year, driven by disciplined execution and focus across the business. That progress is especially clear in our third quarter results, where we delivered a meaningful turnaround in non-GAAP gross profit, improving from a 4% decline in the first half of the year to 5% growth in Q3. While the first half of the year reflected some temporary softness, the actions we took during the period have laid the foundation for a higher gross profit trajectory and expanding profitability in the back half of '25 and beyond. Looking ahead, we expect an even stronger step-up in the fourth quarter, supported by improved technical model performance and the seasonally stronger traditionally lower risk holiday period.
We've continued to invest heavily in our machine learning capabilities, enhancing key features and expanding our autonomously trained model program to reinforce our market-leading technology. So far in '25, we have shifted approximately 70% of our models from manual to autonomous training and 100% of the autonomously trained models now outperform their previous manual production models. We believe that this automation will allow us to continue scaling the business with high leverage. Our autonomous program allows for real-time retraining when early fraud signals appear, freeing up our data scientists to focus on developing new features that further boost performance.
On the revenue side, our push into more nondiscretionary categories continues to deliver. I want to highlight the strong momentum in our money transfer and payments category, which grew 100% in the third quarter. We believe we are on track to nearly double the absolute revenue dollars in this category for full year '25 as compared to last year. This growth is being driven primarily by new business activity. Both our top new logo won and the largest upsell during the third quarter were in this category, and we believe that merchants in this vertical where transaction speed and superior fraud capabilities are paramount, are increasingly recognizing the performance and ROI that Riskified offers.
We also returned to meaningful adjusted EBITDA margin expansion in the third quarter, improving by near -- by roughly 560 basis points year-over-year. And as Agi will cover, we expect a further step-up in our Q4 margin, approximating a 15% adjusted EBITDA margin, reflecting the operating leverage of our model, the scalability of our platform, and the efficiency gains achieved over the past few years.
Beyond financial performance, we executed well against our '25 product road map. It's now been several quarters since we launched an Adaptive Checkout, the advanced configuration of our chargeback guarantee engine. Adaptive Checkout uses AI to raise conversion rates by adding friction only when it's truly needed and removing it where exemptions apply. The results have been impressive. One U.S. ticketing merchant increased total conversion by 5% by using selective onetime password friction to recover declined orders.
In EMEA, an electronics merchant lifted conversion by 26% by removing unnecessary 3D Secure friction through Riskified's exemption and pre-authorization analysis. And as adoption grows, Adaptive Checkout continues to raise the bar for intelligent risk management and positions us to capture more share in the global e-comm market. We're also very focused on the rise of agentic commerce. Our research shows that many shoppers already use AI somewhere in their shopping journey, but very few complete purchases through large language models today. And as AI agents begin making purchases on behalf of consumers, critical data that fraud teams depend on can disappear, reintroducing many of the risks' merchants have worked hard to eliminate. The results can be higher chargebacks, disputes, and policy abuse. We're positioning Riskified to help merchants navigate this shift safely through a combination of strategic partnerships, innovative technology, and enhanced infrastructure. Our collaborations bring together fraud prevention expertise with secure agentic protocols to deliver accurate decisions and better business outcomes in this new e-commerce environment.
As we head towards the end of the year, our third quarter has provided momentum as we approach the peak year-end holiday season. Our internal data continues to show resilient consumer spending with October tracking in line with our expectations. We are seeing solid performance in our 3 largest categories: Tickets & Travel, Fashion & Luxury, and Money Transfer & Payments, which collectively represent more than 2/3 of our GMV. Assuming steady activity through the year-end, we're cautiously optimistic for another healthy holiday season. Combined with a solid first 9 months of performance, we have the confidence to raise the bottom end of our revenue guidance for the second consecutive quarter.
In conclusion, our global platform continues to lead in the e-commerce fraud and abuse prevention market. Our team remains focused on executing on the large new business opportunities ahead, and we are on track to close out the year strong and to enter '26 with solid momentum, a healthy new business pipeline, and confidence in our growth trajectory.
I will now turn it over to Agi.
Thank you, Eido, team, and everyone for joining today's call. Our GMV for the third quarter was $37.8 billion and $108.4 billion for the first 9 months, reflecting a 9% and 7% increase year-over-year, respectively. We achieved record third quarter revenue of $81.9 million, up 4% year-over-year. Revenue for the first 9 months of $245.3 million, increased 5% year-over-year. Our GMV and revenue growth during this quarter was primarily driven by continued new merchant and upsell activity.
Our largest category, Tickets & Travel, grew 6% during the third quarter, driven primarily by strong new business wins and upsell activity, offset by softness in our tickets and live events vertical. This is primarily due to tougher second half comparable periods versus 2024's record level of activity. Travel saw strong growth in Q3 with anticipated momentum heading into the end of the year due to both new business wins and stronger same-store sales growth. The overall net effect is expected to result in similar year-over-year growth rates in the fourth quarter.
Our Fashion & Luxury category grew 13% during the third quarter, which was supported by continued momentum in new business activity and improvements in some of our largest merchants in this category, partially offset by continued same-store sales pressure, particularly within our high-end fashion subvertical. We're confident that this category will continue to grow for the year, supported by a strong pipeline of new business opportunities that are expected to close in the fourth quarter and some anticipated macro steadiness in the high-end fashion subvertical.
Our Money Transfer & Payments category achieved approximately 100% year-over-year growth in the third quarter. This growth was driven by the new business activity, which continues to be a key area of expansion. As anticipated, we saw year-over-year declines in our home category, which contracted by approximately 70%. I'm encouraged that in the fourth quarter, we expect to revert to year-over-year growth in this category as we lap the dynamic that impacted the first 9 months of 2025.
In the United States, revenue declined 12% year-over-year, primarily as a result of the contraction in our home category. Encouragingly, we continue to grow across all of our other regions. During the third quarter, APAC grew approximately 55% year-over-year, while other Americas, which represents Canada and Latin America, grew approximately 18% year-over-year, primarily driven by momentum in new business and upsell activity with particular strength in the travel subvertical.
EMEA grew approximately 19% year-over-year with the strongest performance concentrated in our Fashion & Luxury, Tickets & Travel, and Money Transfer & Payments verticals, supported by both new business and upsell momentum. Overall, we believe that our continued international growth reflects ongoing progress in capturing market share.
Our non-GAAP gross profit of $41.5 million, increased 5% year-over-year in the third quarter. This translates to a non-GAAP gross profit margin of approximately 51%, an improvement of 1% from the same period in the prior year. Our third quarter 2025 margin represented a step-up from 50% in the first half of the year. The year-over-year growth was driven by meaningful improvements in our core machine learning models, along with the contribution from new product revenue. This improvement was offset by the ramping of merchants in newer categories, in particular with the money and transfer payments category, which has experienced very strong growth in 2025. Overall, I'm encouraged that 4 of our last 5 cohorts expect an average of 5% year-over-year improvement in our chargeback to billings, demonstrating the success in our machine learning platform.
As a reminder, I encourage you to continue analyzing our gross margin on an annual basis, given individual quarters can vary due to various factors, including the ramping of new merchants and the risk profiles of transactions approved. I'm encouraged about the sequential progress we have made throughout the year and continue to target an annual non-GAAP gross profit margin target of 52%.
Moving to expenses. We continue to manage the business in a focused and disciplined manner. Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $36 million for the third quarter, down from $38.7 million in the prior year, largely due to several onetime positive impacts in the period. Our non-GAAP operating expenses as a percentage of revenue for the third quarter declined year-over-year from 49% to 44%, reflecting ongoing leverage in the business model. We anticipate having quarterly non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately $39 million in the fourth quarter.
We achieved positive adjusted EBITDA of $5.6 million in the third quarter, a record for the third quarter. This represented approximately 560 basis points in margin expansion or a margin of approximately 7%. Based on our implied guide for the fourth quarter, which I will touch on shortly, we expect a large step-up in margin on a sequential basis and our fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin to approximate 15%.
Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with $325 million of cash, deposits, and investments, and we continue to carry 0 debt. We maintain a healthy cash flow model, achieving quarterly free cash flow of $13.4 million in the third quarter. For the first 9 months, we achieved $22.4 million in free cash flow. And based on current conditions, we now expect over $30 million of positive free cash flow for the full year of 2025.
In the third quarter, we repurchased 5.2 million shares for a total price of approximately $25.3 million. For the first 9 months of the year, we repurchased 14.2 million shares for a total price of approximately $69.2 million. As a result of this buyback activity and our ongoing commitment to prudent dilution management, we continue to expect shares outstanding to decline by at least 5% year-over-year. We believe that our strong balance sheet and liquidity position are strategic assets that provide us with the flexibility to navigate a range of operating environments. We intend to remain disciplined and thoughtful in how we deploy capital to create long-term shareholder value.
Now turning to our outlook. As a result of the solid first 9 months of the year and cautious optimism around the upcoming holiday season, we're improving the bottom end of our revenue range for the second consecutive quarter to now anticipate revenue of between $338 million and $346 million or $342 million to the midpoint. As a result of our discipline and expected margin expansion in the fourth quarter, we now expect our adjusted EBITDA guidance to be between $21 million and $27 million or $24 million to the midpoint.
I'd like to wrap up by thanking the Riskified team for their hard work and execution this quarter. I'm encouraged that we meaningfully improved our results versus the first half of the year, and I believe that we are well-positioned to continue this momentum in the fourth quarter. The foundation we're building positions us for continued growth ahead, which will allow us to deliver ongoing value to our shareholders.
Operator, we are ready to take the first question, please.
[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Connor Passarella of Truist Securities.
2. Question Answer
This is Connor Passarella on for Terry Tillman. The first one, I just wanted to ask on the momentum as you exit this year. So just as we kind of think about the mixed expectations exiting '25, how are you thinking about the growth outlook as it relates to expanding with existing merchants via upsell and cross-sell versus continuing to drive new business strength?
Yes. I think we'll see a continuous strong performance on both sides. We always kind of have a new cohort of merchants that we're onboarding, that we're selling the platform to, but also really focused on gaining net new clients, really consistent with how it's been working in prior years.
And then maybe just you've spoken about the money transfer and payments categories being a strong driver of expansion this year and new merchant activity has been really a key driver there. Just moving into 2026, are there any other emerging verticals that could be important for us to watch next year as you maybe have started to gain momentum with some of the new merchants? And how do you think about prioritizing resources to go after certain verticals?
Sure. So when we think about kind of expanding our market, we really do make a concentrated effort to go after specific verticals that we think are large in size and have our product is a good fit for them. As we've continued to expand the product, whether it's through policy Account Secure, CPMS, the different permutations of the chargeback product, we think that there's more value to different categories. We also tend to have a geographic view where we kind of say, hey, what other regions are there where we can kind of penetrate further. And that also leads us to think about the categories in those regions.
And probably also some other thoughts and internal deliberations we have are more around distribution, what is the value of going slightly more mid-market and the enterprise focus we have now? How do we get better distribution via partnerships. So as we kind of go through the '26 planning cycle, those are all thoughts that we have and kind of going through.
And our next question will be coming from Chris Kennedy of William Blair.
When you think about -- or can you give us an update on the revenue contribution from the non-chargeback guarantee products for 2025?
Yes. So far, it's continued to be very strong, over 100% and continue to be very pleased with the uptick in the market reception to that. It's been instrumental and very helpful in kind of gaining longer-term contracts with our existing clients at renewal. It's been helping us win new business at a higher rate. So overall, really pleased with being able to develop additions that generate meaningful ROI to our clients.
And then you talked about some of the investments in machine learning and driving efficiencies with your business. I mean when you add that with the non-chargeback guarantee products, any way to think about the long-term margin profile of Riskified as you go forward?
I think it just varies so much based on the mix of the different products. To us, it's just really focusing on how do we generate gross profit dollars and an increasing amount and driving that number higher.
And our next question will be coming from Will Nance of Goldman Sachs.
I just wanted to follow up on that last question on the gross margin. It sounded like you've had some recent model improvements that have led to several prior cohorts outperforming. As we think about the trajectory of gross margins into next year, is that something we should be thinking about in terms of kind of year-over-year gross margin improvement? And it also sounded like maybe money transmitter was a small offset to that. So just how are you thinking about kind of those puts and takes on the gross margin into 2026?
Hello, Will, thanks for the question. You definitely characterized it correctly, right. We saw that the ramping of new categories, specifically the money transfer and remittance in some of the newer geographies kind of was a headwind in H1 and that some of the modeling improvements that we made during the first half helped improve performance not only there, but also across the rest of the portfolio. And we would anticipate that to kind of flow through improved performance into Q4. And beyond, at the same time, I do anticipate additional headwinds from newer regions and newer categories as well. So I think that dynamic will stay constant.
And then maybe just one for Agi. I was wondering if you could elaborate on the onetime expense impacts that you mentioned in the script on 3Q? And if you could just share a couple more details on what drove that?
Yes, sure. Thank you for the question, Will. So with any given quarter, there's always ins and outs. Specifically for this quarter, we saw some positive impacts related to some payroll adjustments more around vacation accrual and reserve duty, specifically for our Israeli office. And maybe some movements of some events. But as we kind of shared in our prepared remarks, I do expect a range of around $39 million and change or $39 million for Q4, and that's like a better representation of the run rate of the OpEx.
And our next question will be coming from Ryan Tomasello of KBW.
This is [ Juan ] on for Ryan. How do you envision the potential for growing stablecoin adoption and stablecoin payment rails to alter the fraud management landscape? And is the company currently exploring any opportunities to capitalize on this?
Sure. I think as we think about stablecoins, crypto and Agentic kind of more broadly, we see that these are introducing additional complexity to our merchants and added requirements about what they need to be able to support. And we've found historically that whenever this added complexity is kind of presented to the merchant, it both introduces new vectors of fraud and it makes it more challenging for them to solve it on a stand-alone basis, requiring an outside partner. So kind of year-to-date, what we've been seeing is that these have been kind of a net positive drivers for the business, and we anticipate that to continue.
Right. And just to double-click on that, you called out in the prepared remarks an increased emphasis on those Agentic commerce solutions. Has this driven any kind of notable uptick in prospect inbounds or new business discussions in general?
Yes. I mean when you think about the complexity that merchants face when they try to solve this, right? Like a merchant suddenly gets a transaction for 5 big screen TVs. They have no idea where this transaction came from. They have limited data, and we're really helping them both identify that this came from kind of an Agentic shopper on behalf of someone else. They need to be able to understand, hello, is this kind of a hallucinating LLM that's ordering 5 big screen TVs? Or is this a re-shipper or is this a legitimate customer? And when you think about the stack that we have, the capabilities we developed for bot detection, which are helpful in identifying these commerce agents, the capabilities we have around our policy suite of products, which are helpful in kind of identifying specific agents result in more service-related chargebacks or what type of policies you want to enable them.
And obviously, just the risk engine with kind of via our network is able to much better differentiate in these limited data points. Is this actually a good transaction? Or is this a stolen credit card being used here? I would say that in reality, we're only seeing a handful of transactions right now, but merchants are definitely thinking about how to adapt to this new paradigm. So it's helping from a conversation perspective.
And our next question will be coming from Clark Wright of D.A. Davidson.
Just wanted to maybe touch on the notable sequential increase in GMV this quarter versus historical trends for what we typically see in 3Q. What were the key factors that drove this? And does the money transfer payments growth reduce your typical seasonality trends that we've seen?
Yes. Thank you for the question. When I think about our model, the GMV is kind of like an output of some of the revenue inputs. Having said that, we've shared before that we do expect there to be some spread between the GMV growth and the revenue growth. And I think kind of heading into the second half of the year, this is kind of like more evident and actually more aligned with what we've seen historically. It's great to see the GMV growth kind of like getting back to close to double digits. And yes, overall, excited about the performance.
And then maybe, Agi, this will be a better one for you, but there's been disciplined expense management and maybe this builds off of some of the prior questions that have been asked around operating leverage. But I would love to kind of understand how you're able to continue to invest while continuing to see operating expenses relatively flat and the fact that you're guiding to effectively flat in 4Q. And then I guess that builds also off of Eido's comment around being able to invest in capacity. So I guess, how are you measuring your expense guardrails while also kind of managing to this margin expansion story that you're going to continue to see in 2026?
Yes. I'm happy that we're able to continue to perform as we kind of shared in the beginning of the year, we are focused on our expense and making sure that we kind of still within the total annual guide. Besides that, there's always ins and outs between the quarters. So this quarter just appeared to be kind of relatively low compared to other quarters. But Q4 is expected to be higher. And within that, within every single quarter, there's always ins and outs. We continue to invest in areas that are related to growth-generating areas and continue to optimize areas that are more like on the operational part of the business. That has been a focus of us.
Earlier on in the year, we kind of shared some of the offshoring activities that we've been kind of like taking over and we've been executing really well there as well. So all in all, there's a lot of going in a single quarter, but happy that we're able to show this focus on the numbers as well.
Yes. And maybe just to add a bit my perspective there. We recently started going through or kind of mid-process of the '26 product planning, and we've actually increased our development capacity by almost 50%. And that's a combination of kind of being able to leverage kind of better cost locations, but also reducing kind of some KTLO work in other areas. So we are consistently thinking constraint breach creativity, how can we do more with less and really proud of what the team has been able to achieve in that area.
And our next question will be coming from Timothy Chiodo of UBS.
A really helpful blog post that you put out a few weeks ago around Agentic. I just want to talk -- in there, you mentioned almost 2 paths for the payment to be received by the merchant. One is the payment token is received. The other is the payment comes through one of the wallet providers, and you specifically mentioned 2 pass-through wallets in Apple Pay and Google Pay. So 2 parts. I was hoping, #1, you could just recap for everyone the varying, kind of like who takes on the liability and why in those 2 different paths, and you called this out a little bit in the blog. And then maybe more importantly, the second one, just from an industry perspective and what you're seeing, do you expect the wallet share of overall checkout within that channel to be roughly the same, higher, or lower than it is on the, call it, the traditional website checkout?
Sure. Happy to take that. So I think just simply with the payment token, we think the liability more often would not would sit with the merchant, whereas if it goes through the digital wallet, more often than not, it would sit with the issuing bank. And sorry, Tim, what was the second part of that question?
Sure. [ Nick ], so let's just -- I'm just going to make up a fake number. But let's say there's in all of e-commerce, let's just say that all of digital wallets made up 20% of checkout. Would you expect that through the Agentic channel through sort of like a ChatGPT user interface that the digital wallet share of checkout would be higher than that 20%, about that same 20% that it is on regular websites, or maybe lower than that 20%? And then why would that -- why would it be higher, lower, or the same?
I think that's a really interesting question. I would need to think about it much deeper. The reality is that to date, there's only been kind of a handful of transactions. Now obviously, there's potential for it to grow further. But based on that, it would be more a guess than a data-based answer, which is what I would prefer to provide to you.
And our next question will be coming from Reggie Smith of JPMorgan.
Nice to see the acceleration in GMV. Kind of a follow-up on the Agentic theme in the previous question. I'd love to get your view on how you think about both the opportunities and the threats as it relates to Agentic commerce on your business? And by that, I mean, paint a picture for me where Agentic increases the demand for your services and maybe another where it could possibly reduce it. I'm just trying to understand like the bear and the bull piece around Agentic and how it relates to Riskified in your services. Then I have one follow-up.
Sure. Happy to take that. So the positive scenario, which is kind of similar to what I outlined before is that merchants now need to deal with increasing complexity with Agentic transactions. They need to understand that this is an Agentic shopper. That's difficult. We can help them with that. They need to understand not only is this an Agentic shopper, is it a legitimate one or a fraudulent one. We can help them with that. After they understood that it's a legitimate one, they need to understand if it fits the various policies that they have, and they probably want to create some unique policies for Agentic shopping, so we can help them with that.
So I think in this scenario, it's a net positive for us because there's a lot of complexity, and we're good at solving complexity for our merchants. And it's a complex world right now where you have a multitude of standards, right? It's not like there's one standard, there's standards with MS. And if a single merchant is trying to solve all those problems, it's a huge issue for them. So I think to me, that's the most likely outcome and what we're seeing kind of so far merchants preparing for. The more negative potential could be if that more transactions move away from enterprise e-commerce, so I think you know some of the kind of blue-chip names that we work with if people don't shop on their site anymore and go to various kind of agents and do an end-to-end purchasing within that LLM environment.
And I guess 2 quick follow-ups. One, is there an opportunity to actually provide services to the AI labs? And then secondarily, we've gotten a lot of questions in the last couple of months about 2026 EBITDA targets. And I guess, in light of the gross margin momentum and the operating leverage and the accelerating GMV growth, I'd love to hear how you guys are feeling about those targets and '26 EBITDA margin targets that you laid out previously, feeling better, worse than maybe a few months ago. Any color you could provide there would be helpful.
Sure. Happy to take that. So look, I think, obviously, the LLM providers can, of course, can be Riskified clients. And like we help others, we can help them manage the fraud. So that's a clear and easy #1. With regards to #2, we're happy that we're targeting 50% margins in Q4. And I think we're really proud of the progress that we've made over the past 2 to 3 years since we set out this initial guidance for next year, and we continue to plan for double-digit growth next year.
At the same time, I do think that some of the merchant events that happened in '24 does mean that kind of the 15% margin would be pushed out by a few quarters, but kind of similar to what's already reflected in sell-side expectations.
I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back to Eido for closing remarks.
Thank you, everyone, for joining our call, and we look forward to updating you on the progress in a few months. Thanks.
And this concludes today's program. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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Riskified — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Riskified — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Riskified's Second Quarter 202 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that today's conference is being recorded. I will now hand the conference over to your speaker host, Chad Mandel, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. My name is Chad Mandel, Riskified's Head of Investor Relations. We are hosting today's call to discuss Riskified's financial results for the second quarter of 2025. Participating on today's call are Eido Gal, Riskified's Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer; and Aglika Dotcheva, Riskified's Chief Financial Officer.
We released our results for the second quarter of 2025 earlier today. Our earnings materials, including a replay of today's webcast will be available on our Investor Relations website at ir.riskified.com. Certain statements made on the call today will be forward-looking statements related to our operating performance, business and financial goals, outlook as to revenues, gross profit margin, adjusted EBITDA profitability, adjusted EBITDA margins and expectations as to positive cash flows, which reflect management's best judgment based on currently available information and are not guarantees of future performance.
We intend all forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements reflect our expectations as of the date of this call, and except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to revise this information as a result of new developments that may occur after the time of this call. These forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond our control that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations.
You should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statement. Please refer to our annual report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2024, and subsequent reports we file or furnish with the SEC for more information on the specific factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Additionally, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures and key performance indicators on the call. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings release issued earlier today and also furnished with the SEC on Form 6-K and in the appendix of our Investor Relations presentation, all of which are posted on our Investor Relations website. I will now turn the call over to Ida.
Thanks, Chad, and hello, everyone. We're pleased to report a solid second quarter with performance that reflects both the expanding value we continue to deliver to our global merchant place and our operational discipline. We continue to grow our revenue in the second quarter, primarily through sustained new business wins and robust upsell activity. We also achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for the seventh consecutive quarter. Our entire organization executed well this quarter, and I want to thank them for their hard work. I believe that our results demonstrate the continued strength of our platform and the growing demand for our AI fraud and risk intelligence solutions.
I'm encouraged by our performance in the first half of the year. And since our last call in May and through quarter-to-date Q3, we have observed relatively resilient consumer spending. I believe that we are well positioned to improve on our first half results in the second half, supported by our robust new business pipeline and a focus on advancing the AI capabilities of our multiproduct platform. We have remained focused on gaining market share in existing categories and geographies while also expanding into new verticals to further diversify our merchant base and position us for continued growth.
We saw consistent international growth in the second quarter with 7 of our top 10 new logos coming from outside the U.S. and across 4 separate categories. In addition, we continue to deepen our presence in nondiscretionary categories such as money transfer and payments, which delivered exceptional year-over-year growth. As the global e-commerce environment evolves and as we continue to expand our visibility across more categories and geographies, it's increasingly clear that fraud is becoming more complex, dynamic and sophisticated. We're seeing fraudsters leverage advanced techniques, including the nascent capabilities of Agentic Commerce to launch dedicated attacks.
This growing sophistication further reinforces Riskified's unique value proposition. Our proprietary global data network and powerful artificial intelligence platform is designed to enable us to stay ahead of these emerging threats. While Agentic Commerce remains in the early stages, our R&D teams are already strengthening our offering by developing new capabilities to provide merchants with the visibility they need to embrace legitimate AI shoppers while blocking sophisticated threats. To that end, we recently announced the introduction of multiple solutions and tools designed to advance fraud and abuse prevention in the world of Agentic commerce.
I believe that our deep e-commerce expertise and unique data network will play a valuable role in setting the standard for how Agentic Commerce can grow safely and profitably for merchants. As part of the expansion of our Agentic commerce capabilities, we also announced a partnership with Human Security. This collaboration combines human's AI agent visibility, governance and trust capabilities with Riskified's e-commerce risk intelligence expertise in fraud prevention, chargeback protection and policy abuse prevention. This partnership will leverage our industry-leading AI platform and expansive network insights to secure the next era of digital commerce.
In addition to our progress with Agentic AI, we continue to see increased adoption of our Policy Protect product during the first half, driven by new logo wins, cross-sell activity within our existing customer base and across geographies. We continue to invest in product innovation. During the quarter, we launched a new refund abuse model, which is generating an improvement of at least 15% in technical performance compared to the previous model.
This new model leverages behavioral features that we are already using in our fraud models to evaluate abusive behavior on an identity level across our network. Our ability to leverage our network of features and insights is just part of what makes Policy Protect so valuable to our merchants. In fact, we've heard this feedback directly from merchants.
For example, one merchant recently shared that their implementation of Policy Protect, which allows them to reward their best customers with early refunds was in part responsible for a substantial increase in their customer satisfaction scores. This merchant is focused on improving their customer experience to aid in retention and increase the likelihood of repeat shopping. These outcomes reinforce the type of value and differentiated capabilities we aim to deliver to the market.
And as we continue to enhance our product portfolio to intelligently solve a wider, more complex range of use cases for merchants beyond chargeback fraud, we have had success building the pipeline for the remainder of '25 and beyond. Our go-to-market team surpassed their activity levels in the first half of '25 compared to the first half of '24 and is well positioned for an even stronger second half with most second half activity currently expected to convert in Q4.
Finally, as a reflection of our confidence in Riskified's long-term trajectory, I'm pleased to announce that our Board has authorized an additional $75 million share repurchase program. This decision reflects our conviction in the fundamentals of the business, supported by strong free cash flow, a debt-free balance sheet and a disciplined capital allocation strategy. In conclusion, we remain confident that our powerful AI platform, global data network and strong balance sheet allows us to pursue our growth initiatives to generate value for our shareholders. I will now turn it over to Agi.
Thank you, Eido, team and everyone for joining today's call. Our GMV for the second quarter was $36.4 billion, and our first half GMV was $70.6 billion, reflecting a 4% and 5% increase year-over-year, respectively. We achieved record second quarter revenue of $81.1 million, up 3% year-over-year, and our first half revenue of $163.4 million was up 5% year-over-year.
Our GMV and revenue growth during this quarter was primarily driven by continued new merchant and upsell activity. Our 2 largest categories, tickets and travel and fashion and luxury grew 15% and 10% year-over-year, respectively, driven primarily by strong new business wins and upsell activity. Consistent with recent years, growth in our fashion and luxury category was partially offset by continued same-store sales pressure, particularly within our high-end fashion and sneakers verticals.
We continue to expect year-over-year growth in both categories to moderate slightly through the second half of the year, reflecting a continuation of the same-store sales pressure observed in the first half and due to tougher comparable periods with respect to the tickets and live event space in the second half of the year. We remain confident that both of these categories will deliver full year growth, supported by a strong pipeline of new business opportunities, which we believe will more than offset the same-store softness we have seen.
As anticipated, we saw year-over-year declines in our home category, which contracted by 74%. And consistent with the first quarter, our Money Transfer and Payments category achieved approximately 90% year-over-year growth in the second quarter. This growth was driven by new merchant activity, which continues to be a key area of expansion.
The United States declined 11% year-over-year, primarily as a result of the contraction in our home category, but encouragingly, we continue to grow across all of our other regions. During the second quarter, APAC grew approximately 40% year-over-year and other Americas, which represents Canada and Latin America grew approximately 16% year-over-year, primarily due to momentum in new business and upsell activity with particular strength in travel.
EMEA grew approximately 23% year-over-year with the strongest performance concentrated in our fashion and luxury tickets and travel and money transfer and payment verticals, supported by both new business and upsell momentum. We believe that our continued international growth reflects ongoing progress in capturing market share.
Moving to gross margin. Our non-GAAP gross profit margin for the second quarter of 2025 was approximately 50% and consistent with the first quarter and down from 53% in the prior year. Similar to the first quarter, the year-over-year decline was primarily driven by the ramping of merchants in emerging categories such as money transfer and payments and geographies such as other Americas. The impact of these factors was partially offset by the improvements in our core machine learning models and continued growth in new product revenue. As a reminder, I encourage you to continue analyzing our gross margin on an annual basis given individual quarters can vary due to various factors, including the ramping of new merchants and the risk profiles of transactions approved.
As we progress through the year and have more clarity on these factors, we anticipate delivering an annual non-GAAP gross profit margin of approximately 52% for 2025 which is at the low end of the initial target range set on our fourth quarter 2024 call. For modeling purposes, we currently expect our non-GAAP gross profit margin for the second half of the year to be higher than the first half, with the third quarter to be slightly below 52% and the fourth quarter to be higher than the target.
Moving to expenses. We continue to manage the business in a focused and disciplined manner. Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $38.2 million for the second quarter, down from $39.3 million in the prior year. Our non-GAAP operating expenses as a percentage of revenue for the second quarter declined year-over-year from 50% to 47%, reflecting ongoing leverage in the business model. We anticipate having quarterly non-GAAP operating expenses of approximately $38.5 million in the third and fourth quarter. We achieved positive adjusted EBITDA of $2.1 million in the second quarter and $3.5 million for the first half of 2025. Our second quarter results reflect the seventh consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.
Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with $339 million of cash, deposits and investments, and we continue to carry 0 debt. In addition, we continue to maintain a healthy cash flow model. And in the second quarter, we achieved quarterly free cash flows of $5.3 million, up from $4.1 million in the prior year. We expect approximately $30 million of positive free cash flow based on current conditions in 2025 with the majority of the cash flow generation expected to occur in the fourth quarter of the year.
As Eido mentioned, I'm excited to announce that our Board of Directors has authorized an additional $75 million of share repurchases, subject to the satisfaction of Israeli regulatory requirements. When combined with amounts that remain available under our existing share repurchase authorization, our total outstanding authorization is approximately $85 million. In the first half of 2025, we repurchased 9 million shares for a total price of approximately $44 million. As a result of our buyback activity and our commitment to prudent dilution management we continue to expect our share count to decline year-over-year. We believe that our strong balance sheet and liquidity position are strategic assets that provide us with the flexibility to navigate a range of operating environments. We intend to remain disciplined and thoughtful in how we deploy capital to create long-term shareholder value.
Now turning to our outlook. As a result of the solid first half of the year, we're improving the up end of our revenue range to now anticipate revenue between $336 million and $346 million or $341 million to the midpoint. We maintain our adjusted EBITDA guidance that we reaffirmed on our previous call to be between $18 million and $26 million or $22 million to the midpoint. Overall, I'm encouraged by our solid first half of results and execution, and I believe that we are well positioned to improve on this result in the second half.
As the e-commerce landscape evolves, our services are becoming more integral to merchants every day, and I believe that our leading market positioning and opportunities to accelerate growth will enable us to realize Riskified's full potential and deliver value to shareholders.
Operator, we are ready to take the first question, please.
[Operator Instructions]
Now first question coming from the line of Terry Tillman with Truist Securities.
2. Question Answer
I had -- the first question is going to be kind of looking into second half of the year and assumptions. And then the second one is going to be more of a strategic kind of high-level question on the Agent commerce. But First, in terms of -- I think you all talked about strong second half sales pipeline, which sounds great. How much though are you assuming converts to business and actually live implementations by the holiday season. And the second part of this first question is in 4Q around the all-important holiday season, do you think fashion and luxury would have positive same-store sales? Or are you assuming flat or down? And then I had a follow-up. .
Terry, thank you for the questions. I'll take the first 1 and pass it on. So thinking through our very solid first half of the year, I'm very happy with the way we performance and just now being almost 8 months into the year, I'm happy that we're able to flow some of the outperformance. When we think about the back half of the year, there's a number of opportunities in our pipeline. Some of them are already integrated or in a committed stage and probably some parties kind of like to work later in the year is still in the pipeline. But usually, these are kind of material to some of the calendar numbers in a way. So overall, happy with the new business, with the execution and looking forward to performing in the second half of the year.
We're expecting win rates or conversion rates similar to what we've seen historically.
Okay. Got it. And I guess -- yes, I mean, we're hearing a lot about agentic commerce and what seems like even the discovery process shoppers during prime the multi-day prime period. There is a lot going on around agentic commerce, but it does open up with potentially new threat vectors or just creates more complexity. Is this marking some net new conversations or is it helping kind of speed up some of your existing kind of pipeline conversations? Or is it actually maybe something that could be a little bit timing because, hey, this is a new development. We want to get through the holidays before we really kind of embrace this and talk about how you all could help us with this. Maybe you could just share a little bit more on agenetic commerce?
Sure. That's a great question. I mean, obviously, it's really a fast-developing space. And we just want to be there for our merchants and position ourselves as kind of the leader in agenetic Trust. And when you think about what we're actually doing, we're enabling our merchants to identify agentic agents from other traffic in bus and both accept those transactions and create custom rules and policies and approval matrixes based on those different agents.
And for the agents themselves, we're creating a risk service that enables them to provide a risk-free commerce solution. I think from a pipeline perspective, it's a net kind of benefit for us because both merchants now have more budgets related to solving AI-related hurdles. So that opens up budget opportunity. And it also enables more conversations as merchants want to be at the forefront of this and make sure that they have the right infrastructure to support agent commerce. So we're really excited about that.
Our next question coming from the line of Will Nance with Goldman Sachs.
I wanted to ask a question on some of the performance you mentioned by vertical. I think you mentioned you had a couple of expectations around acceleration in 1 or 2 of your verticals are offset by really continued strength on the remittance side. So I'm wondering if you could go maybe just a little deeper and talk through what are some of the recent trends that you've been seeing across the business? And anything to call out or anything that you -- wondering what you're basing some of those same-store sales comments there in the back half of the year on as well. Appreciate it. .
Will, thank you for the question. So what we've been seeing in the second quarter, some of it is a continuation of what we saw in Q1. For example, travel and payments performed really well and really strong and some of the expectations there also kind of to continue this strong performance for the rest half of the year. Some other categories like tickets, have been a little bit softer. It's important to point out [indiscernible] had an explosive growth that was really, really strong in 2024. We added a number of new merchants there as well. Q4 of last year was exceptionally strong. There were just a variety of [indiscernible] that I believe brought record tickets for most of our merchants.
Looking into this space this year, we've seen some more volatility. Q1 started kind of relatively strong, but this trend softened now in Q2. We're actually seeing some softness in a number of our merchants in this category. And I would say June was specifically soft. And looking towards the rest half of the year, I think that lapping of the very strong second half of the year in 2024, it's going to be just a little bit harder. And in terms of activity and type of events that are lined up just in conversations with our merchants, like I don't see particular strength that can carry this type of performance that we saw a year ago.
So that's kind of like around more tickets and travel. In terms of fashion, we've seen some stability. I think corporate numbers are still negative but some stability, and we continue to execute there by adding more new merchants and executing on upsell. So that drives some of the growth in this category for us.
That's very helpful. And then just on the OpEx side, OpEx continues to be very well managed and kind of flat to down over time. Just maybe talk through any notable moving pieces in the OpEx space and any line of sight to getting to a point where the OpEx needs to start growing again, would be helpful as well?
Of course. So we started the year, and we give us of the offshoring activities we kind of mentioned that we expect Q2 to be lower. It ended up slightly a bit lower just for a variety of reasons. Some of it is just doing to execution of the offshoring, which has been going really well. Some other variances there more around just timing of backfills and [indiscernible], et cetera. So all in now, what I guided is around 38.5% towards back half of the year, I think it's like relatively similar to where we performed in Q2, and I expect this to be our back half of the year kind of run rate.
Our next question coming from the line of Timothy Chiodo with UBS.
This is [indiscernible] on for Tim. I wanted to dig in on adaptive checkout offering. So I understand this is product not monetized separately, but more as a key enhancement to your chargeback guarantee offering. So can you share some of the trends of merchant adoption and whether it helped you win some of the new logos mentioned in this quarter?
Sure. I'll take that. Thanks for the question. So maybe just taking a step back to family realize everyone, adaptive checkout allows us to optimize the end-to-end conversion funnel by both sending smart singles pre-op to some of the payment processors or card issuers to enhance authorization rates. And it also enables us to kind of via our models run very, very smart friction stack on borderline transactions thus approving more transactions, right?
So you can imagine, instead of having just a straight 200 basis points of decline we would send some kind of 100 basis points of those to smart frictions, either that could be an SMS, a 3D secure notification, or request for CBV really depending on the risk characteristics of the transaction. And as we talk to kind of sophisticated enterprise merchants, they love it. It's exactly the type of stuff that they want -- they think about that they try to build internally and have a hard time managing.
And we've seen create adoption, double-digit percentage really growing quickly, both within our current installed base and on a new prospect logo. We've definitely continued to see high win rates that we believe are related to the platform offering. It's hard for me to pinpoint how much of that is exactly just because of Adaptive, but I think it's a great contributor to the overall story in value prop.
Awesome. My follow-up would be a quick follow-up on Agentic commerce. So in the press release you put out with HUMAN. You mentioned there is about 2x higher risk traffic driven by agentic traffic volumes. So can you expand on some of the risky traffic that you saw? And also, does it ultimately help increase demand for any type of chargeback guarantee offer that merchants will now seek with the higher risk associated with Agentic?
Yes. So what we see timing again is with every new type of flow in e-commerce, fraudsters are early adopters because they understand exceedingly well that protections are usually put in place later in the game. So just by the virtue of kind of fraud or being early adopters in to be clear, what's happening here is that you see stolen credit cards being loaded into some of these kind of agents that performed the commerce, and that's really the main MO that we're seeing.
So I think that's driving the initial bump in fraudulent activity, the challenges that merchants have in identifying some of this traffic. At the same time, I do want to kind of level set that it is still nascent. But obviously, we have to position ourselves in this kind of incredibly strategic field. So that's what we're seeing today.
Got you, makes a lot of sense. I'll pass it on.
Our next question coming from the line of Ryan Tomasello with KBW.
Just in terms of the implied second half guidance, I think that suggests revenue growth at the midpoint in the low single-digit percentage range. A, can you just help us unpack -- I think there's just mainly 2 moving pieces there in terms of lapping last year's large customer churn. And then I also think you guys have called out this billing versus revenue growth dynamic that I think was an important delta to call out, especially into year-end. So if you're just able to give us what the implied 4Q exit growth rate is in the implied guidance range on a normalized basis that would be helpful, whether that's on billings or revenue, whatever you think is a better number to look at here?
Sure. So you pointed out exactly some of the main 2 reasons why we expect to see on billings, some of the acceleration in -- it's not evident in revenue, just almost because of the accounting -- the way it works, but as an exit rate, we are on track, and we are building and executing towards double revenue -- double-digit revenue growth in 2026. This is our [indiscernible]. This is what we're executing and nothing's changed.
Okay. Great. reiterating that. And then -- just on the competitive front, you guys have clearly made some great strides expanding the breadth of the product set as you're evolving more into a platform solution I think you've called out in your prepared remarks some nice competitive wins from another player in the core charge back guarantee product. But just bigger picture, if there's any color you can provide on just how you're seeing the competitive landscape evolve, particularly relative to next-gen competitors in this space, how your win rates have been evolving, and if there's any other recent examples to highlight in terms of what might be starting to resonate more here with customers as you've executed on the platform expansion?
Sure. I'll take that. I mean, I think our win rates have been high or remains high in kind of the 70% range for a few quarters now. And I think for us, what we're seeing is that -- most of the market is still on the legacy solutions and from a Hain full of modern ones, it's really the field is narrowing in a pretty meaningful way -- and I fully expect that over the coming years, the increase in GMV, the amount of e-commerce activity flowing through risk off will be by far the largest. .
The reason I think that, and I'm optimistic is not just the win rates, it's all the global expansion that we're experiencing now we're highlighting. It's the entrance into new verticals if a few years ago, people said, "Hey, maybe risk off is really tied into fashion, maybe it's just advancing into ticketing I think we're seeing a really strong breadth that we're showcasing whether it's through reminds and groceries and some of the other categories. So I think that's putting us in a great position.
And the continued focus and increase in accuracy further creates distance between us and some of the other smaller competitors. The range of offerings from the platform whether it's some of the paid offerings like policy or some of the add-ons, the chargeback like adaptive checkout, just continue to create more value and just create a bigger barrier of entry towards other solutions. So that's kind of the slightly longer view on that.
Our next question coming from the line of Cris Kennedy with William Blair.
Can you just talk about the revenue contribution or the revenue growth from some of the newer products such as policy protect dispute resolve or account secure?
Yes. I think similar to the prior quarter, it was well over 100% in the range of 150%.
Okay. Great. And still on track for, I think, I don't know, high single, low double-digit total contribution for this year? .
Correct.
Okay. Great. And then clearly, the repurchase program is out there. But can you just talk about kind of your strategy on the M&A environment or anything you're seeing out there in the market for capital allocation?
Of course. I mean it remains consistent, right? If there is a good opportunity to enhance our product portfolio and leverage the strategic relationship we have with so many blue-chip publicly traded companies. we'll definitely look to kind of acquire small technologies that we can cross-sell into this great base -- we think that there is opportunity to consolidate smaller layers that don't have kind of alternative exit options, and we continue to believe that's an opportunity in the medium term. At the same time, we're always looking at current valuations relative to our expectations for the business and making repurchase decisions based on that. .
Our next question coming from the line of Reggie Smith with JPMorgan.
I had a question on, I guess, agentic commerce, as well and maybe just risk more broadly. Could you remind us, I guess, what proportion of the fraud you see is kind of like large coordinated tax and whether that mix has been increasing. And then as you think about Agentic, is the bigger threat in your eyes LLM fraud or maybe purpose-built AI platforms spanning websites or things like that? And I have a follow-up.
Sure. So I would say there has been an increase in what you would consider kind of professional coordinated hard scale fraud attacks. It usually happens as people take over devices, desktop hacking. It can happen with large data breaches where people have access to a large number of accounts.
And obviously, the exposure to merchants is much larger in those instances. So that's probably the bigger portion of fraud attacks, and that has been increasing. Specifically with regards to gen-to-commerce, what we tend to see is people loading stolen information or stolen cards into these different kind of AI shopping agents, and that's really the attack vector that we're seeing right now. Not that the LLMs themselves are being purposefully built like from fraudulent reasons. They're just being manipulated or managed in a way that performs.
Got it. Yes, I was actually or talking about whether obviously like OpenAI making fraudulent LOMs, but like whether or not that technology and capability and I guess, coding were being used to make purpose-built fraud engines and things like that, but that's fine. And then last one for me, I guess, with the human announcement, is that deal exclusive? Do you expect to work with other kind of security type vendors? And then lastly, you mentioned something about potentially partnering with LLM directly. What can you share about those efforts so far?
Sure. So on our partnership with human, we do think it creates very unique and differentiated offerings. Some of their capabilities more on the perimeter to identify bots. And based on that identification, being able to understand more if it's an agent or a bad just for various pricing activities and whatnot. And as we think about the LLMs themselves, if you think about, hey, I'm creating a dedicated shopper that doing everything to end, including the purchasing process, that's when you have a risk component on the shopper and you would need to query a service like Riskified in order to make sure that you're -- you have safety and guaranteed and then there's trusted commerce in this place. .
Our next question coming from the line of Clarke Jefferies with Piper Sandler.
I wanted to ask about the proactive renewal effort this year with some larger contracts Wondering if you could comment on what the renewal rate was this quarter? And if there's any way to size the renewal cohort that's coming in the back half? And then I have 1 follow-up.
Yes. It's been 100% success rate or kind of similar to prior quarter and feel great about that. I think that we've continued to focus on creating unmatched value even though we've had a slightly slightly below gross margin expectation, H1. We've continued to focus on creating great outcomes for our merchants, and we think they really appreciate that, and that's kind of showing through in some of the the renewal numbers that we've been seeing. At the same time, we have kind of seen a more positive quarter-to-date improvement so far in Q3. So we're also happy with how both of these things are progressing.
Perfect. And then you called out a large merchant in the ticketing and light events vertical moving over remaining volume. Could you talk about what catalyst was the decision for that vendor. And broadly, the upsell that you're seeing in the business overall, is that being led by volume or by Policy Protect?
Yes, great question. So this is a merchant that started with kind of really a unique segment. I think they were sending anywhere from 5% to 10% of their volume to some manual review queue, and then we were able to fully automate that 5% to 10% at a similar cost structure, probably even a slightly better with great approval rates. Beside the performance there for a number of months, we were already integrated. And then the upsell happened. Really, we were able to offer them higher approval rates, better performance, I think, in the range of 50 basis points for guaranteed cost savings, right, probably a 20% reduction in their overall cost of fraud.
At the same time, they also did deploy our policy solution. And then it's looking for brokers that are creating a substandard customer experience where there's a lot of kind of deny at gate for the events in being able to block them proactively. So that was definitely, I think, a consideration when they thought about the -- going for the entire shop volume.
Our next question coming from the line of Clark Wright with D.A. Davidson.
So there's been a strategic focus on expanding the role of describing the payments -- or the broader payment space. Can you talk about how you guys have been -- have progressed this last quarter and how you expect to accelerate growth going forward in this space?
In the payments and remittance space, I think, look, similar to other areas, we see once we've had success and are able to create both custom features and models and understand the the somewhat unique risk characteristics of a vertical. It just helps us provide more value to other merchants in that vertical, together with the brand and name recognition that we start to have. And I think that's a strategy that's worked well in fashion and in ticket and it's one that we're doubling down on for payments and remittance as well. .
Appreciate that. And then there's a notable AI spoke person who a few weeks ago called out an AI fraud crisis. And I'm just wondering how risk of it is positioned to help merchants in this scenario handled this growing issue?
Look, for us, it's a terrible to say, but an increase in fraud and the complexity of the world of fraud is a positive. As fraud becomes more complex and challenging and SoC, a tax lead and increase of things like social engineering and people taking over devices and doing what we call kind of sophisticated fraud, an individual merchant has a harder time managing all of this, and they need a platform similar to Riskified for all the various use cases, right?
And if you think even a few years back when we were just talking about Riskified, it was like, okay, this is a solution that helps identify credit card fraud. And now you have things like adaptive checkout and you have policy and you have dispute resolved and you have identifying agent-commerce and being able to create rules around that. So all this complexity means that it's much more challenging to solve internally, which ends up being a net benefit for us.
I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Eido Gal for any closing remarks.
Thank you, everyone, for joining us on today's call, and we look forward to updating you on our progress in the quarters ahead. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.
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Riskified — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
Finanzdaten von Riskified
Umsatz
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Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
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Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Mär '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 351 351 |
5 %
5 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 167 167 |
2 %
2 %
48 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 184 184 |
8 %
8 %
52 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 135 135 |
8 %
8 %
39 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | 67 67 |
1 %
1 %
19 %
|
|
| EBITDA | -21 -21 |
52 %
52 %
-6 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 2,32 2,32 |
22 %
22 %
1 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | -23 -23 |
50 %
50 %
-7 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | -18 -18 |
51 %
51 %
-5 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen USD.
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Firmenprofil
Riskified Ltd. beschäftigt sich mit Lösungen zur Betrugsprävention. Es betreibt eine Risikomanagement-Plattform für den elektronischen Handel, die es Online-Händlern ermöglicht, vertrauensvolle Beziehungen zu ihren Kunden aufzubauen. Das Unternehmen wurde im September 2012 von Eido Gal und Assaf Feldman gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Tel Aviv, Israel.
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| Hauptsitz | Israel |
| CEO | Mr. Gal |
| Mitarbeiter | 663 |
| Gegründet | 2012 |
| Webseite | www.riskified.com |


