Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Aktienkurs
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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 146,98 Mrd. zł | Umsatz (TTM) = 270,06 Mrd. zł
Marktkapitalisierung = 146,98 Mrd. zł | Umsatz erwartet = 291,48 Mrd. zł
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 146,78 Mrd. zł | Umsatz (TTM) = 270,06 Mrd. zł
Enterprise Value = 146,78 Mrd. zł | Umsatz erwartet = 291,48 Mrd. zł
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
12 Analysten haben eine Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
12 Analysten haben eine Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Prognose abgegeben:
Beta Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Events
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Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, everyone. My name is Anna Bockowska. I have the pleasure of welcome -- welcome to the presentation of Orlen Group's consolidated financial results for the first quarter of 2026. Today's event today's conference will be delivered by Ireneusz Fafara, Management Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Slawomir Jedrzejczyk, Vice President and CFO. We are very happy to see you all of you who are gathered in the room but also everyone who is listening to us live. Mr. Ireneusz Fafara, President of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, will now take the floor.
Good morning, everyone. Financial... Results. Consolidated Financial results after the first quarter of 2026, which was an exceptional quarter. Everyone knows what was going on and it was quite dynamic, especially in the last month of the quarter. It gave us a lot of emotional events which we did not expect. Listens to what the most important people in the world had to say about the ORLEN shares. I'm proud to say that this dynamic situation and volatility actually did not affect our performance. We have demonstrated our strength, our resilience, our preparedness for very difficult conditions. And we are happy to say that our investors still trust us and compiled. After we presented our new strategy, we are proud to say that our value went up by 200%, and we are among the fastest-growing companies in the world in the energy sector.
Despite or irrespective of this volatile and difficult environment and despite what happened in the ORLEN shares, we managed to ensure availability of fuels to our customers. We decided that it is a priority in this very challenging period, full availability of all fuels and creating the most favorable conditions to offer the lowest prices possible to our consumers. We started by reducing our retail margin to minimum levels. We also launched practically from the very beginning, promotions, which I'll discuss later. And at the same time, the government at the end of March, published the CPN program, which allowed us to present what we see on screen right now. We have the lowest prices of fuel across the European Union. So together with the market, and following the decisions of the Polish government, we were able to offer such conditions, price conditions to our customers.
Irrespective of this volatile environment, we delivered very robust operational results in which was contributed by all the segments. We are delivering better and better financial results without the support of one-off events such as compensation or the accounting for the PGNiG results. So if we deduct or disregard those one-offs, you will still see that our EBITDA LIFO was the strongest and the record-breaking EBITDA LIFO results in quarter 1. What makes us really happy is that our performance and effectiveness across foreign markets is going up as well. The share of foreign markets and our revenue went up to 32% and the structure of the consumer segment have changed as well. And that foreign markets are contributing very strong to our results especially in Germany markets. The Energy of Tomorrow is a very important program. This program will involve the highest number of Polish suppliers.
This is why we started the Forum of the Suppliers of Tomorrow, and we are showing our investment program for this year and for subsequent years. Our expectations or requirements in relation with the way we can respond to their questions, their suggestions and their feedback. Around 500 suppliers took part in the program and the feedback is positive that this valuable and very helpful program. And this is why we believe that participation of the local content will be more and more important. We are planning to 3 conferences or events and different publish. While we speak about the investment program, we can now move on to the events of quarter 1. Let's start with the Energy segment. CCGTs in Grudziadz, both of them because we have 2. Grudziadz 1 is nearing its completion. And we believe we are sure that still in this year around summertime, the CCGT will be completed and we will have first fire. The second investment in Grudziadz is in the construction phase.
Construction work has started, and we believe that in 2029, it will be completed. We executed or signed the annex with the general contractor Ostroleka, it is expected that it will be launched in 2026, we started first construction work. As far as Siekierki is concerned, the situation is quite challenging. We have applied for the environmental permit. However, it was objected to buy a single environmental we are working on it, and we believe that we will start construction work soon. Baltic Power is our offshore projects. We have 78 foundations already in place. We have 42 out of 76 turbines that were launched, and we believe that the first supply will start in the summer of 2026. As far as Baltic East and Baltic West are concerned, the technical analysis are underway, design work and permitting procedures as well.
We are working on the launch of the Kolobrzeg Port project, and we have reserved the area at Kolobrzeg Port. So for Baltic West, we'll be able to use that 10 million which we secured under the national KPO program on the upgrade of our grid. We have already 1,000 kilometers of new and upgraded networks, and we also added 232 new supplies from renewable energy sources. As far as upstream supply is concerned, we are looking for new sources of hydrocarbons and focus on Norway and Poland in the Norwegian shelf we discovered 2 new field resources of hydrocarbon at Sissel and Frida Kahlo. This will add a lot of resources. We started new drilling work in Poland. We had first LNG supplies to Poland and the last 2 gas carriers were taken over in Korean shipyard.
As far downstream is concerned, there was a major event in Q1, we finalized work in terms of the time line as well for the new chemicals project. This means that we will avoid the penalties and we managed to reduce the budget for this investment by PLN 16 billion while not reducing any of its scope. The HVO project was launched or the operation was actually open, which will allow us to upgrade our production and increase the share of bio components by 300,000 tons per year. Grupa Azoty Polyolefins, we signed a preliminary purchase agreement, and we have a vision of how this will proceed until the completion of work and procedures by all the supervisory bodies, we cannot manage this new asset, but we are getting ready for it, and we believe that we will soon be able to strengthen our petrochemicals product range in order to compete financial of foreign markets. effectively. We opened a new hydrogen station and we also signed a contract with the local municipal transport company, and that means that will be able to decarbonize even more effectively.
Moving on to consumer products. We had record breaking both foreign market and in Poland. The share of German market in our consumer product structure went up very important. We are strengthening our electromobility offering. We increased the availability of e-mobility facilities in Germany, and we using our own facilities by 10%. We started the promotion for fuels in Poland. We launched it in March. It was supposed to be closed in April, but we prolonged it until the end of May and then until the end of the year. We are happy to see a number of customers joining or taking advantage of our both fuel and non-fuel offering. It's very difficult and challenging periods. We decided that the priority will be to ensure full availability of fuels to our customers despite this very difficult market, especially in the first month of the year and difficult supply of hydrocarbons to Poland.
We had to -- we saw that 800 distributors had to be closed, but it was still something that we have overcome. And we also offered ORLEN new products for our customers. In terms of security, we had mild winters, and we did get used to it. We had, unfortunately, a couple of accidents here in terms of the safety of our employees. However, the safety at work indicators are still pretty low. However, we are unhappy to see that downward trend and the fact that we did have a couple of accidents makes us worried. We want to make sure that all our employees are safe at work and they go back home to their families every single day unharmed. We started the recruitment under the program of assistance to the Polish services. We also supported fire services, which extinguished fire in the Lublin region.
We provided coffee and refreshment drinks free of charge as well as the fueling of the vehicles that took part in the fire extinguishing events. Moving on, the decision of the Management Board that we will recommend a record high dividend for 2025. This is not a final decision. You know that very well because we will have the General Shareholders' Meeting that will or may not approve our -- or confirm our recommendation. We want to transfer the success and the solid financial results to our shareholders. This is why we proposed such a high dividend, especially that the rating agencies analyze our performance and gave us quite solid assessments. That will be all from me. Slawomir Jedrzejczyk will take over to discuss our financial performance.
Thank you very much, Ireneusz. Ladies and gentlemen, everyone, I will now focus on the financial standing and financial position at ORLEN. Our revenue came in at nearly PLN 76 billion, which is higher than in previous quarters. It comes from the macro situation, higher prices of our products, but also higher volumes. EBITDA LIFO came in at PLN 14.1 billion, going up by PLN 2.6 billion year-on-year, and this solid result was delivered not only due to very favorable macro situation, but also due to the increasing operating parameters. The Cash flow from operations result at PLN 8.5 billion. This is pretty robust, and we had a certain effect of an increase of our working capital as well as deposits and derivatives. As far as CapEx is concerned, it came in at PLN 4.5 billion. We are gaining pace. We are accelerating our operations. I want to confirm that the investment plan that we adopted and published at the previous earnings call it is still in force.
As far as net debt to EBITDA, we gained the additional PLN 600 million, and we improved our cash position by that amount. As far as our operating parameters, I always say that this slide makes us happy, really happy because it translates into our financial position. This shows that we are able to deliver those basic operating parameters despite the challenging environment. As far as upstream and supply is concerned in terms of hydrocarbon production, it went down a little bit. This is due to both planned and unplanned downtime. The plan for the entire year is to maintain production at the level of 2025. We had a pretty harsh winter, especially in February. It increased the wholesale of net gas. We are also showing a parameter that shows that we are increasing the LNG deliveries from the United States. As you can see on this slide, we're talking about 11 terawatt hours going up by 163%. We have 2 contracts in force, one with Venture Global, the other one is with Cheniere.
And the second contract will be also added and the volume will be visible in 2027. In 2027, we'll have an additional contract with Sempra for 1.5 billion cubic meters per year. So in 2027, we will see the entire picture, the whole picture of our huge contracts with U.S. deliveries. In terms of downstream is concerned, we increased our crude oil throughput by 1%. And also we increased our fuel sales as well as petrochemical sales. As as energy is concerned, the production and sales of energy went up due to the harsh winter. So the same applies to heat production and electricity distribution and nat gas distribution. As you can see, heat production went up by 11% electricity production went by 10% and electricity distribution and nat gas distribution by 6% and 12%, respectively.
We are also showing 0 and low emission capacity share going up by over 4 percentage points, coming in at over 64%. And something that makes us really proud, as Ireneusz said, our situation in Consumer and Products segment, we have very robust results for non-fuel sales. We have very high efficiency here. We managed to improve our breakeven and this allowed us to reduce the share -- the price of fuels by 35 gross per liter. As far as our distribution results are concerned, the situation is pretty positive as well in terms of nat gas sales going up by 11% and electricity sales going up by 14%. Moving on to EBITDA LIFO. We reported an EBITDA LIFO, which was higher than in the first quarter of 2025. For upstream, we reported result, which was lower by PLN 500 million due to lower prices. In terms of downstream, it was comparable to the fourth quarter of 2025. The downstream situation is pretty complicated or challenging.
On the one hand, we have the revaluation effect, but it is partially offset by the currency conversion or currency exchange. and we are not able to catch up with the market and our margins are lower. We did not want to increase prices of our products to drastically. And this is why we had to sell the historic stock at the lower price. In terms of petrochemicals, we reached a breakeven, thanks to higher sales volumes and better exchange rate versus U.S. dollar. In terms of energy, both our large energy components went up. On the one hand, we have conventional energy, higher volumes of sales for both gas and electricity. On the other hand, we also have better results in terms of volumes. which were partially offset by lower margins on distribution and the higher costs set by PSE and gas system. For consumers and products, we reported PLN 1.7 billion, going up year-on-year. We had nonfuel sales increases and stable margins.
The retail margins in Poland were lower than in 2025, as Ireneusz said, in the Czech Republic, Germany and Austrian markets, those margins went up. On the other hand, we had higher sales volumes in the nonfuel segment. Corporate functions, the result is lower than higher than last year, then this tells us that we need to focus on the costs as well as here in this particular segment. In terms of our CapEx, PLN 5.4 billion in the first quarter. Our target for the entire year was upheld, and we are showing our largest CapEx projects that were in progress, especially new chemicals, we want to spend about PLN 6 billion on this particular project, but we have other projects in downstream. We are continuing offshore projects in the Energy segment, the 4 CCGTs we talked about before and also in Consumer Products, we are expanding our fuel station network. We're moving on to discuss cash flow, which is very important because if we generate cash, we are able to deliver the historically largest investment project and also generate historically high dividends.
There are 2 parameters which need to be discussed, especially the working capital at minus PLN 2.9 billion, which is only natural because we need more working capital. So the PLN 3.9 billion meant that we needed to freeze more cash and working capital, while when we stabilize the situation and reduce prices, some of that amount will be reversed. And the second figure that needs to be commented on PLN 3.9 billion for the valuation of deposits and derivatives. I believe that we have the most complicated policy in terms of hedging. We are hedging the prices of crude, gas and refining products as well as CO2 certificates.
In March, we saw a high volatility on the one hand. And on the other hand, we saw a very dynamic situation in the market, and we had to have more deficits at PLN 3.9 billion. This does not mean that this amount will be reported finally in our financial statements. We'll see how the settlement will be handled. But I would like to confirm that this is our standard long-term hedging policy in order to flatten out the volatility. If there is a high volatility, which is favorable, then the hedging transactions act contrary to that trend and the other way around. So this is a very consistent policy that we have had for many, many years and will have it in the years to come. So as a result, PLN 14.1 million for EBITDA LIFO, PLN 8.5 million operating cash flow and PLN 7.5 million for investment cash flows, and this includes leasing. We also had PLN 0.4 million for interest and grants. This means that we had to have higher cash spending. But all in all, we managed to report an increase by PLN 600 million, and this is confirmed by the solid ratings from the agencies.
Moody's gave us A3 with stable outlook and Fitch Ratings gave us BBB+ with stable outlook. This is an external confirmation of our financial strength. As far as our liquidity is concerned, just as in the last quarter, in the quarter before, our financing sources are well diversified. We have credit loans and our currency structure and bonds and our currency structure is adequate to our exposure we have debt in both euro and PN as well as in USD. And what's really important is the average debt maturity, which is 7 years. This shows that we have a very solid liquidity position, and this is why we're able to recommend the PLN 8 per share for a dividend. We are ready to make that payout still in June according to our proposal. The dividend record date is June 25. But obviously, we're waiting for the final approval of that dividend by the General Meeting of Shareholders, which was about to take place on the 9th of June.
We are able to pay out that dividend while still delivering the historically largest investment program for the coming -- for 10 years. The last slide shows us key initiatives for 2026. This was discussed by Ireneusz before. I would like to emphasize very strongly, however, that in terms of our growth, we will deliver our investment program while maintaining cost discipline and very effective management of projects. We are convinced as the Management Board that we have streamlined, finally streamlined our processes that were launched years ago for those old projects. Those projects are now on the right track and the right trajectory, but we will still work on it. We will not rest on our laurels. We want to make sure that our investment programs are delivered as effectively as possible. And the second component I'd like to discuss is our operational excellence, the resilience and agility.
I believe that we have managed in the first quarter, we have managed to be very effective here. and we are able to react effectively to the challenging situation. Our main goal was to ensure the availability of products and fuels as well as gas. It's difficult to make such a huge organization as ORLEN so agile, but we're doing our best to make sure that we are both resilient and agile. And the third component, financing, which is very close to my heart. Our goal is to secure financing to have refinancing as well in order to generate cash to pay out record-breaking dividends on the one hand, but on the other hand, to proceed with ORLEN's largest -- historically largest investment program. So thank you very much for your attention. And rest assured that we will continue to work on it.
Thank you, and thank you for your attention, and see you next time.
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Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
ORLEN meldet ein starkes Q1 mit rekordhohem EBITDA LIFO, hohem Cashflow und Vorschlag für eine Rekorddividende, bleibt aber hedging‑ und genehmigungsabhängig.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: ~PLN 76 Mrd., deutlich über Vorquartalen (höhere Preise und Volumen)
- EBITDA LIFO: PLN 14,1 Mrd. (+PLN 2,6 Mrd. YoY)
- Operativer Cashflow: PLN 8,5 Mrd.; Working Capital belastete kurzfristig mit ~PLN 2,9 Mrd.
- CapEx: PLN 5,4 Mrd. in Q1; Investitionsprogramm für 10 Jahre bleibt unverändert
- Dividende: Empfehlung PLN 8/ Aktie (Record Date vorbehaltlich HV‑Zustimmung)
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Versorgungssicherheit: Priorität auf vollständige Verfügbarkeit von Kraftstoffen, Einzelhandelsmargen bewusst reduziert, großflächige Aktionen für Verbraucher
- Energie‑ und Chemieausbau: Fokus auf CCGT‑Kraftwerke, Offshore‑Wind (Baltic Power) sowie Ausbau von HVO‑Biokraftstoffen und neuem Chemieprojekt; Budgetkürzung beim Chemieprojekt um PLN 16 Mrd. ohne Scope‑Verlust
- Internationalisierung: Auslandserlöse stiegen auf ~32% (starkes Wachstum in Deutschland); Supplier‑Forum zur Stärkung lokaler Zulieferketten
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Investitionsplan: Vorherige Jahresziele bestätigt; große Projekte laufen weiter
- Termine/Volumes: Grudziadz‑1 „First fire“ im Sommer 2026 erwartet, Grudziadz‑2 Ziel 2029; Baltic Power erste Einspeisungen Sommer 2026; 2027 zusätzl. LNG‑Volumen (inkl. Sempra 1,5 Mrd. m³/Jahr)
- Risiken: Marktvolatilität und Hedge‑Bewertung (Marktwerte von Derivaten/Einlagen ~PLN 3,9 Mrd.) sowie Genehmigungsunsicherheiten (z.B. Siekierki)
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit für Aktionäre: Solide operative und finanzielle Performance mit hohem Cashflow und attraktiver Dividendenempfehlung; langfristiges Investitionsprogramm läuft, sorgt für Wachstum, bringt aber Ausführungs‑ und Marktpreisrisiken (Hedging/Permits) mit sich.
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, everyone. Please welcome to the presentation of Q4 of 2025 financial and operating results of Orlen Group. We are sitting here in Warsaw in Orlen headquarters together with Slawomir Jedrzejczyk, company's CFO; Konrad Wlodarczyk, IR team; Marcin Piechota, IR team; Daniel Obajtek, Head of Controlling. My name is Jakub Frejlich, I'm heading Investor Relations. We're going to have a presentation that will be followed with the Q&A session.
Without further ado, I will now hand over to Slawomir, please. The floor is yours.
Thank you, Jakub. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It's my pleasure, as always, to present you fourth quarter Orlen financial results. And I will start by saying that it was absolutely a very good quarter for us and the whole year 2025 was very good. So if you look into Slide #2, where we present the main financial indicators, we delivered EBITDA LIFO in the fourth quarter of PLN 12.2 billion and altogether, almost PLN 42 billion for the full '25 year. And I would just add one remark if we assume the same macro conditions for the past years as we were operating in 2025, definitely, that was the record high year for Orlen.
We delivered very robust cash flow from operations, PLN 12.9 billion in the fourth quarter, altogether PLN 47.4 billion. We continue our CapEx program, so PLN 11.5 billion in the fourth quarter, altogether PLN 32.6 billion for the full year. And what's very important, our net debt position is very, very strong, namely is negative, meaning cash flow positive of - I mean, cash position of PLN 1.4 billion.
So now let's move to Slide #3, where we present operating parameters. As you know, we operate in Upstream & Supply Downstream, Energy, Consumer & Products. So let's start with Upstream & Supply. The market environment was unfavorable for us, meaning crude oil price and gas price was lower in the fourth quarter as compared to last year. However, we continue production of crude oil and gas at the same level roughly but we increased gas share of 1 percentage point. And what's very important, we increased our sale of gas of 44%. Basically, half of this increase is better volumes on Polish market due to the weather conditions. And the second half is seizing opportunities on German market by our trading branch in Germany. Basically, the spread were favorable. So we took this opportunity to increase the sale.
If we move to Downstream, Downstream environment was favorable. As we know, refining margin and differential altogether almost doubled as compared to last year. Petchem a little bit better. It's, of course, too early to say that the market environment in petchem is going to be better. However, this is a positive signal, I believe. Altogether, we have crude oil throughput of 96% utilization. So it's very good, 100% in our Polish refineries. And this led to increase in the wholesale fuel increase of 5% year-on-year. Slight decrease in petrochemical but this is, as we all know, due to the situation in petchem environment.
As regards Energy, from the market environment perspective, energy prices increased. And what's very important, we increased electricity generation, heat generation and electricity distribution and gas distribution. As you can see, effectively 18%, 2%, 5% and 3%. So those are very good results from energy sector.
As regards Consumer & Products, market environment from the consumption point of view was favorable for us. Basically, consumption increased in gasoline, diesel as well as electricity and gas. So as a result retail gas sales by 4% and retail electricity sales by 8%.
So now let's move to Slide #4, where we present EBITDA delivered by each segment. So this slide absolutely proves and our results in the fourth quarter and the full year '25 proved that we built a very diversified operating model that gives us a resilience in this challenging macro environment. So starting from the fourth quarter, upstream and supply, PLN 4.2 billion. That's lower than last year. However, last year was in much better macro environment with much higher gas prices and crude oil prices. So you may say that this year -- this quarter, fourth quarter this year is a kind of normalized EBITDA.
In Downstream increased by PLN 2.7 billion. So we achieved PLN 3.7 billion in the fourth quarter. This is a result of more volumes, as I described earlier, and better refining margins. In Energy, slight increase of PLN 100 million. That was basically due to the higher distribution EBITDA and the production -- higher production was offset by higher CO2 costs. So as a result, PLN 100 million increase.
As regards Consumer & Products, PLN 1.2 billion delivered in the fourth quarter. This is a kind of normalized level because last year, it was negative PLN 200 million but that was due to worse market environment. And at the same time, there was a one-off like purchase price allocation of -- that decreased the result last year. But what was very important, if we look into the full year, on the right-hand side, Upstream & Supply delivered PLN 16.2 billion, so PLN 2.3 billion less than last year as we described, lower crude oil and gas prices. Downstream increased to PLN 9.5 billion due to refining margins and volumes and Energy increased by PLN 1.6 billion to PLN 12.5 billion and Consumer & Products delivered PLN 6 billion. So altogether, very diversified and really resilient business model.
If we move to Slide #5, when we present cash flow from -- cash flow for 2025, that was absolutely great year for us. We delivered PLN 47.4 billion operating cash flow. You may, of course, say that a few billion Polish zlotys out of -- it was a kind of extra money we generated due to the fact that crude oil prices and gas prices dropped but nonetheless PLN 47.4 billion, and we spent this money for investment programs, PLN 32.5 billion. We paid, as we remember, PLN 6 per share dividend, which was PLN 7 billion. So altogether, we managed to decrease net debt by PLN 8.5 billion. So as I said at the beginning, our net cash position is PLN 1.4 billion at the end of '25. What's very important for us, we keep investment-grade ratings, Moody's A3 stable outlook and Fitch ratings, BBB+ stable outlook.
If you look into Slide #6, we not only generate very good cash flow but of course, we have very strong balance sheet and diversified sources of financing. So we are very positive as regards looking ahead because we know that we have quite significant investment program in place. However, our balance sheet is really strong. We present here diversified sources of financing. So basically, we have credit and loans but we have all different kind of bonds as well, euro, green, euro, U.S. and corporate bonds. And so PLN 25.1 billion gross debt at the end of '25.
If we move to CapEx, Slide #7. So here, we present our realization from '25 as compared to plan '25, and I will start with that. Maintenance was rationalized, I would say, so PLN 400 million less. In upstream and supply, we communicated earlier that we moved 2 gas ships to '26. So that was roughly PLN 1.2 billion, and we stopped some upstream projects in Norway and Poland. So as a result, PLN 2.9 billion less CapEx spent in Upstream. In Downstream, PLN 400 million less. That's basically our investment in Lithuania, hydrocracker that was, you may say, moved to '26 as well. In Energy, we reallocated CapEx from Upstream & Supply and Downstream to Energy partially. So that's why we spent more on solar projects of PLN 0.6 billion and CCGT plants in Grudziadz and Grudziadz of PLN 0.2 billion.
If we look into our plan but this is our basic plan. So of course, subject to any rationalization and reallocation. So in the base case, we plan to spend PLN 36.3 billion. Maintenance, similar level to '25 to '25. of course, safety of our production asset is our key priority. However, this is the area definitely we can focus on as regards rationalization. Upstream, very similar level like '25, so PLN 7.8 billion. So exploration and production projects in Norway, Poland and Canada, we will continue that. In Downstream, PLN 8.9 billion. So this is an increase of PLN 2.3 billion as compared to last year in '25. So in this amount, PLN 8.9 billion, the highest amount, as you can imagine, is [indiscernible]. This is roughly PLN 6.1 billion. This is our base case. And then we have a few projects in downstream business like HVO, HVO in Plock or hydrocracking in Mazeikiai or rapeseed oil pressing plant in Ketrzyn, altogether, this gives roughly PLN 2 billion, PLN 2.1 billion. So you may say that like 5 biggest -- 6 biggest projects contributes to this amount.
And then Energy, as you can see, energy is the highest CapEx in all 4 segments. And this is due to the fact that, as you know, first of all, we put a lot of emphasis on modernization and expanding our gas and electricity network in this regulatory business, PSG and Energa operator and the total CapEx is PLN 6.2 billion. Then we continue for CCGT projects, and this is roughly PLN 2.5 billion. So -- and then if you add on top of this wind and solar, you will end up with the amount of PLN 9.8 billion. As regards Consumer & Products, PLN 900 million, you may say this is evenly spread across 3 priorities we have in place, meaning expansion and modernization of fuel station network expansion of nonfuel retail network and building alternative fuel network E-mobility.
So now let's move to the last slide of my short introduction. This is outlook for '26. Here, we present a few priorities. This is not the complete list, of course, because we are a very large business. So we have a lot of projects and a lot of priorities. However, let me start by saying, and we group those priorities into 3 categories, meaning investment, operations and finance. As regards to investment, of course, our key priority is to continue our growth projects. However, we will put a lot of emphasis on budget discipline and project management excellence. Definitely, we're not in the past years, very good at that. And impairments we are posting is kind of evidence.
Maybe I will say that this quarter, we posted more than PLN 3 billion impairments, PLN 2.2 billion is for new chemicals projects, PLN 0.3 billion is for upstream and PLN 0.5 billion is for retail in Austria. So basically, another quarter with impairments. However, we are aware of that, and we need to focus on this budget discipline to deliver projects on time and within the budget.
The second priority here is, of course, our -- I mean, the biggest investment we have in place, which is new chemicals. I can just confirm that we are in the last phase of the updating integrated schedules and creating final budget and signing the agreement with general contractors. So once this is ready, we'll communicate to the market. This is -- I would not give you a precise date today because this is subject to corporate approvals. However, I can just say that this is top priority. So it should be a question of weeks rather than months. So once we are ready, we will communicate the details.
And what's very important here, we not only continue the CapEx program but step by step, we're commissioning our assets. So '26 should be the year when we complete Baltic Power, the first offshore wind plant. We will complete CCGT in Grudziadz and HVO in Plock. So step-by-step, this huge CapEx program we have will be concluded.
If we move to operations, this is absolutely our priority as well to strengthen our operational excellence to create a resilient and agile business. We are a very large enterprise. So it's difficult to be agile but we try to be as agile as possible. Market environment is very challenging. It's very, very dynamic. So we need to be ready as a company to have, first of all, resilience and this integrated business model proved that we are resilient. And then we need to be agile so that we can navigate in this macro environment in the best possible way.
The second point is here, secured and diversified sources of hydrocarbon supply, meaning crude oil and gas. '26 is going to be the first year without hydrocarbons from Russia. So really, this is our focus. However, I can confirm that we are prepared, secured. We proved this in the past quarters. So we have diversified sources of financing. We have term contracts, spot contracts. So we are absolutely on the safe side here. And then focus on maximum asset utilization, '25, it was a great year for us, 96% utilization in refinery and petchem assets. However, this year, we plan to have this quite big shutdowns maintenance shutdowns in Czechia and in Poland. So you may expect that utilization rate will slightly drop. However, we are doing everything so that we take out of our assets.
Now let's move to finance. Of course, our financing position is very strong. However, we are not just sitting, we are revolving our credit facilities. So one of that is PLN 2 billion. We are in the process of finalization, and we are arranging PLN 2.5 billion using export credit agency facility for new chemicals projects. And what's very important, this is the last point from my side. We are absolutely aware that our impact on macro environment is very limited. So we need to navigate in that environment. So our focus again is on market risk management, very dynamic from the commodity and from the financial standpoint, meaning crude oil, gas prices, products, FX, interest rates, CO2. So all those factors will be taken into consideration, and we react accordingly to the situation.
So that's all from my side, and we are ready to take your questions. Thank you.
Yes. Thank you very much for this quick presentation. As you probably have noticed, we went through one of the best quarters in Orlen history within minutes for the sake of saving the time for you to ask questions.
As usually, please the floor is yours for the questions. I will refer and name you according to the order you raise your hands. So first question is [indiscernible] Bosch.
2. Question Answer
I've got 2 questions. Congratulations on the very good results. I know it's kind of early but looking forward into 1Q '26 results, how would you describe reaching a similar EBITDA or even higher between PLN 12 billion or PLN 13 billion EBITDA? Do you think it's ambitious, overambitious? Is it realistic given current macro? That's the first question.
And the second question concerns the market consensus EBITDA, the one we see in Bloomberg, it's PLN 37 billion for this year. What is your comment on it?
Thank you for your question. Of course, it's difficult for me to comment the precise numbers because those are confidential information. So please allow me not to deliver you precise answer. I can just give you some kind of my impressions. So we all know what's the macro till the half of February. So basically half of the quarter passed. So we may say that refining margin plus differential dropped to USD 9.7 per barrel. So this is, I would say, normalized level. So I would not expect that this is something extraordinary. Basically, we are rationalizing refining margin and differential. So this is slightly positive as compared to last year. However, very negative as compared to the fourth quarter last year.
From the petchem margin, slight increase as compared to last year and slight increase as compared to the fourth quarter. So petchem slightly better. Crude oil, crude oil higher than fourth quarter, however, lower than the first quarter. So as you know, gas price is lower, Henry Hub spread versus TTF short, as you know. So a lot of factors that impact our performance. So from the consumption point of view, as we all know, the gas consumption is higher, electricity as well. So mixed views, I would say. So I would not give you a precise answer with PLN 13 billion EBITDA is the right assumption. We'll see. We still have 6 weeks to go.
And as regards full year, I will give you a similar answer basically. In the base case, we should assume that macro environment is not going to be as great as '25 as we know. So refining margins rather down. Crude oil, subject to geopolitical tensions, generally mixed views on crude oil. So if from the geopolitical point of view, situation is stable, we may assume crude oil price going down. But if the situation, especially with Iran, current situation with Iran is going to be tense, we may expect crude oil price going up.
Gas prices in the base case, as we all know, rather down, electricity prices rather down. So macro environment in the base case, as I'm saying, we are prepared for being lower than last year. But we are doing everything which is in our hands to improve the operational indicators. And from that perspective, you can be sure that absolutely focused on operational excellence, delivering CapEx on time and within the budget. Of course, we have these shutdowns, refinery shutdowns plant every 4-year shutdown. So utilization rate in our refineries and petchem plants, you should assume slightly lower. So definitely can be more challenging '26 than '25. But we'll do everything possible so that the result is as great as we can.
Next in line, Piotr Dzieciolowski from Citi.
So I have a couple of them. So first of all, can you please explain what is -- because on the chart, I don't quite get the difference between your operating cash flow and your EBITDA because you also pay taxes. There is -- I looked into your like a cash flow statement, there's like a reversal of provisions, which do not find a reflection on the balance sheet when you move from that position. So can you really say what happened, why your cash collection is significantly stronger than EBITDA given the taxes that you pay and so on? Because if you simply deduct the taxation from your clean EBITDA, then we are more than PLN 10 billion above that level. So that's question number one.
And then second follow-up to this one. How should we think about the dividend in light of this operating cash flow? Does this -- your normal dividend policy apply or not?
And the final question from my side is, what kind of implication you see from the ongoing Slovakian, Hungary situation where there is no crude supplies to that refineries? Does it have a positive impact to you? Can you benefit from it? Or what's the effect?
Okay. Thank you so much. As regards to the first question, really, you touched a very important point because I agree with you that in the normalized situation, you may assume that we deliver EBITDA, then we pay tax and this should be operating free cash flow. However, there are always those -- some -- we may call it one-off. However, this is subject to the hydrocarbon basically quotation. So we have changes in working capital. And then we have changes in the provisions in the obligatory reserves because obligatory reserves are included in this other. We have hedge accounting. We have CO2.
So this is really complicated, and we need to deep dive as regards that probably offline because this is not so simple. You said perfectly, if you look into our financial statements, Page #9, which is cash flow from operations, you have a lot of positions here that should be explained. So I can -- at this stage, I can just say that I agree with you that I would not say this is one-off, but this is -- this cash flow in '25 is kind of inflated by decreasing the pricing by this hedge accounting, et cetera. So in the long run, you should expect our cash flow from operations closer to our EBITDA, what we generate. For example, if you look at...
Is there any -- sorry to follow up. Is there any risk of the reversal of this positive one-off? So the kind of a cash flow, let's say, you generate whatever the consensus is PLN 37 billion EBITDA but your operating cash flow for next year is significantly lower. Is there a risk like this? And then how you smooth it out in terms -- in light of your dividend policy because that is linked to operating cash flow line.
Yes. As regards to changes in the working capital and changes in the obligatory reserves, of course, this is subject to the quotations. So if this is going to be reversed, let's see. If in the base case, we assume that those prices are going down, that means that we should we should have extra positive effect of working capital, not negative. As regards to those provisions, I would say that part of this, you may expect some negative but I would not say today definitely what kind of amount we can expect. But definitely, I can repeat again that I treat this cash flow from operations in '25 as kind of inflated a little bit due to the fact of this working capital and one-off items.
But as regards to dividend policy, so as you can imagine, we look carefully into the cash flow statements long run, rather, I mean, long run in a sense, '25 and '26. So dividend policy is valid. I can just confirm as always, that we should pay dividend. And it's too early today to say what's the final recommendation of the Management Board. This is going to be delivered in April once we present the final full year financial statements. But definitely, cash flow is good. So the question of '26 forecast, and we will prepare that and then we'll propose.
And as regards to Slovakia and Hungary as well, as we all know, they try to deliver crude from Mediterranean Sea. So I assume that in the base case, they will manage to deliver this crude and they will operate as they operate. Currently, they use reserves. So at this moment, we don't see a very significant turbulence in the market. And I guess they will manage to cope with that.
[indiscernible]
I have 3 questions, if I may. The first would be about Iran conflict that may happen or may not happen. But my question would be how the like potential escalation of that conflict affect your imports of Saudi crude and Qatari LNG. I mean, in such scenario, with switching to mandatory strategic reserves create any operational challenge for you?
Thank you for the question. Of course, we are observing the situation, how this will definitely affect if something happens crude oil quotations. As I said in my presentation, we create this diversified model. So we have 10 contracts, but our 10 contracts in crude oil is basically 50%. So we have spot contracts. So we are very active on the market. So just in case, I believe we build this competence and we are ready to reallocate from different sources. From the gas point of view, we have, of course, the contract with Qatar but this contract is just 2.7 billion cubic meters. So from the total delivery from us, of course, this is a significant part but not as significant that we cannot replace from other sources. So we build our competence on LNG market.
We know that '26, the next volumes will come from the second Venture Global contract, which is Plaquemines. So I believe the last quarters, the last years prepared us for any turbulence on the market from the crude oil and gas prices, I mean, gas deliver.
Okay. But can you say -- I mean, what was the share of Saudi oil right now in your feedstock? Is it 50%? Did I understand that correctly?
It's less. It's less than I assume like 40%, 40% plus.
Okay. And the second question would be a follow-up on that Venture Global situation. Could you provide us an update on the current status on the dispute regarding the Calcasieu project because recently [indiscernible], the proceedings with Venture Global, I mean, how is it going in your proceeding? I mean, when we can expect any ruling? And what would you expect about that Plaquemines LNG train? Do you expect the same situation as in Calcasieu that you're not going to receive any deliveries for the first part of the sanctioning of that new project?
Thank you so much. I can confirm what we said last quarter because nothing new basically happens in the meantime. So the hearing is expected in the fourth quarter this year. And then you need -- I mean, there is always a time like half a year for final verdict. So we expect the final verdict like in '27, end of first half of '27. So this is a kind of base case scenario. We know that the rulings are different [indiscernible] BP1. So we will see what's going to happen with us. As regards the information from the lawyers, we are fighting for positive outcome, and there is probability that the outcome will be positive. However, let's wait for the final case.
As regards Plaquemines, Venture Global confirmed that probably fourth quarter this year, they will start the first deliveries out of this contract of 5.4 billion cubic meters. So we may assume that in '27, we should have a kind of full deliveries from those 2 Venture Global contracts, PLN 2 billion from Calcasieu pass and 5.4 billion from Plaquemines. And then in '27, we will start 1.3 billion from Sempra. So basically '27, '28 will be the full years of deliveries of LNG from U.S.
And as of now you received the full amount of deliveries from Calcasieu pass or you're waiting for?
Yes, yes. So we started last year, as you know, '25. And this year, you may assume that the whole PLN 2 billion from that contract will be delivered.
Okay. And the third question, if I may, will be on capital allocation because in recent days, your CEO indicated that the updated strategy will include substantial CapEx dedicated to the energy transition still. And in the light of the ETS reform and declining carbon allowance prices, could those plans be adjusted? I mean, how flexible are you like in this area?
Of course, we look into those regulations and they impact us significantly. So still, we don't know what the final outcome is going to be. I would just say that energy transition is something, which is our priority, and this will continue. Our CapEx program was set in the strategy announced last year in January. So we will look carefully into all those projects. We will reallocate amounts if those are necessary. However, today, it's too early to say kind of what kind of rationalization, what kind of reallocation and what kind of final target is going to be placed.
I would just maybe add that in the strategy last year and here in this presentation as regards CapEx for '26, we don't include -- I mean we don't include M&A in '26. In the strategy, there was quite significant part of M&A. And so I believe that this M&A is kind of flexible part of our spending. So this is something we look carefully from the organic CapEx, growth CapEx, I believe in the next 3 years, we are quite done. We reallocated this CapEx properly. However, of course, always rationalization and optimization is in place if feasible.
Anna Kishmariya, UBS.
There is a little bit of a delay. A couple of questions from my side. First, I want to follow up regarding the EBITDA outlook for this year, but more from the new projects that will be on stream, what contribution do you expect? Second, in terms of your CapEx and M&A comments. On the CapEx side, how much do you think could be rationalization for 2026? Like where could you see the scope there? Also, you mentioned HVO in Plock CapEx for the year, though I thought that the project should be already in the starting up mode. So what is left there in terms of the CapEx?
And probably the last one is just a quick clarification check regarding the dividend. I think last year, the recommendation took place already with fourth quarter results in February. Why there is this change in recommendation now in April?
Okay. Thank you so much. So as regards to EBITDA and new projects, please bear in mind that Baltic Power is going to be in place [indiscernible] in the base case in September. So only fourth quarter will be a kind of extra EBITDA delivered. As regards CCGT plant in Grudziadz, we are targeting end of the year. So you should expect EBITDA delivered in '27 from that projects. HVO, yes, we are finalizing is basically close to being operational. So first quarter should be operational. So we don't deliver precise numbers as regards EBITDA contribution for the full year but definitely a few hundred million Polish zlotys should be added here.
As regards CapEx rationalization, this is ongoing task. We don't provide this number yet. However, I believe in our strategic update, this is my personal view, we should have this component of OpEx and CapEx optimization program, and we should deliver a concrete amount we would like to get out of those programs. So I'm not in a position to tell you today.
And as regards dividend, it's difficult for me to comment last year, I was not there. However, I believe during my past experience, I mean, 2008 to 2017, that was for 9 years. So I believe we always delivered dividend together with full financial statement in April. So that was the practice I used to operate. So I believe this is a good practice as well. This is closer to general assembly, and this is -- we know we have more visibility as regards '26. So that's my view.
We'll now turn to Michal Kozak, Trigon.
I have 2 questions, if I may. The first one, could you explain the -- sorry, could you explain the changes in operating cash flow? When we look at provisions amount, you reported some reversal in probably CO2 provisions in the last quarter and huge gain on investing activities these 2 components totaled over PLN 7 billion in the last quarter. Do you think that it's worth reporting economic net debt just like domestic utility companies did 1 year ago probably?
As regards this operating cash, to some extent, I answered some -- I gave some clarifications at the beginning of our call. So I can just repeat what I said there that we have those items we need to -- I mean, we need to investigate it deeply. However, this is more offline discussion. As regards to this investment, are you referring to this line loss on investment activity, which is included in the cash flow from operations statement?
Yes, this is a gain, not loss.
Gain because this is like reversal of impairments because this is impairments we are creating. So I said in the fourth quarter, there was more than PLN 3 billion, so actually PLN 3.4 billion impairment. So that's why this is noncash, we are reversing this. So...
So reversing provisions is connected with CO2 probably, yes.
So If you start -- if you look into our graph, which is EBITDA or EBITDA LIFO, that means this EBITDA LIFO is already excluding impairments. So that's why this line is basically not shown during our waterfall.
Maybe the last question. In your previous strategy, did you assume such a large TGE versus TTF gas price spread, which has doubled year-on-year basis and is having a positive impact on your domestic upstream operations and I in wholesale gas trading, do you believe that this spread should be sustained going forward?
This spread, we know what's the market environment currently as regard Henry Hub and TTF, and in the next few years. I mean again, in the base case based on the all the agencies, we should expect this spread to drop. So this is something that may impact, of course, our EBITDA definitely.
So you expect the spread to drop going forward?
Yes. As compared to '25 to '26, I mean, it's going down and now we will stabilize. If you look into our macro slide, you can see that Henry Hub increased from 57 to 77 and TTF dropped from 196 to 142. So definitely, the spread shortened. But as regards to TGE because you asked about TGE as well and TTF, right? But as regards to TGE, TTF, of course, this is subject to -- I mean, the market is volatile in the weeks like January this year and we are paying basically more for interconnectors. So in the long run, the situation is quite stable.
So the difference between TTF and TGE is basically obligatory reserves we need to keep and the interconnectors of this network we need to pay for. And this is more kind of stable. This is like between TTF or TGE and TGE is like 10%, 11% difference. And in the months like January this year, of course, this widens but you should assume this is absolutely temporary.
We'll now be going back to Piotr Dzieciolowski, who has a follow-up question.
Yes, because there was nobody in the line or a few people I decided to ask a follow-up. Can you please provide us a bit of an update of what are certain M&A processes you've been doing? We've seen the changes in the Grupa Azoty Management Board. How does this impact your acquisition of this polypropylene installation. You haven't succeeded the disposal of the parcel unit to Poczta Polska. And historically, you were talking also a lot about the acquisition of upstream in Norway, infrastructure in LNG. And the reason I ask about all this M&A on a net basis is that it seems that you can't lever up the company quickly enough. And therefore, how would you assess the risk of a possible tax on all the state budget is a little bit in the tight situation. And then if they have a company, we've seen a situation like this in the past, they were really trying to grab a little bit of money here and there. So just wanted to understand how you see the M&A CapEx or the amount, how you -- can you really spend or buy something in a sizable amount going forward? And on these 3 particular cases, like what happened?
Okay. Thank you. So M&A in M&A, we are very cautious, as I always repeat, because this is flexible part of our spending and depending on the situation and our cash flow position. So currently, only gap is on the table. As you know, we extended our offer to purchase Polyolefins in Police of PLN 1.023 billion. So this is something we communicated. This is valid, and this is the only feasible M&A, which is currently in place. However, we are looking, of course, in Upstream segment into any possibilities, nothing concrete on the table. But if you assume that we should increase our production of hydrocarbons, it's not that easy to allocate organic growth so that significantly we can increase our production.
So if we still continue that strategic move, we may consider an M&A. But as I said, may consider, there is nothing concrete. And similarly to our renewables projects, so like wind, solar farms, this is something we are analyzing as well. And if there is a good opportunity, we may allocate some resources in Poland for Polish project as well. So this is from M&A point of view, I believe the situation.
But as regards to your second part of the question, you can imagine that I'm not in a position, it's difficult for me to comment on any possible moves in that area.
Thank you very much. You are all more than welcome to have follow-ups. But now we'll turn to [indiscernible] We can't hear you. Okay. We're having some technical difficulties. So we'll turn to.
We'll come back to [indiscernible] in a minute.
I would like to go further for Michal's question about the supply and upstream segment because I understand looking at TTF gas prices this year should be under the pressure from the prices downgrading. I would like to ask you about forces or your actions that can the segment EBITDA this year, for example, from trading and other perspective. What can we expect this year from the segment besides the lower gas prices? There are any forces that can support the results this year?
Okay. Thank you so much. So when I close my first part of the presentation, I indicated at the last point that market risk management is in spotlight. So of course, we know the forecast, we know the pricing. So we are not sitting and waiting. We are hedging. So any negative impact is not going to have a kind of full 100% in EBITDA because partially, we are hedging this. We don't provide, of course, the details of our hedging policy and our hedge position but this is one area we can work on. Of course, it is a drop in crude oil prices and gas prices from our production assets apart from hedging this very little we can do. So basically, trading, trading and the active trading. This is the answer for the drop in crude oil prices and gas prices in the Upstream segment.
And of course, the second part, as you know, we communicated that once we have LNG from U.S., we don't always deliver this LNG to Europe. We find new markets in Asia. So we delivered to Japan. We delivered LNG ship to Japan, for example, last year. So this is something we are considering as well.
Thank you for your questions. Thank you all for active participation. It seems that the questions and especially the answers were exhaustive enough because we see you that there are no further questions. So thank you very much for the call, for active participation. As you have noticed probably, a little bit turned to your side to give you [ more opportunities ] for active discussion. We'll keep on doing that.
So thank you very much for this participation for the Q4 results. We will see you on the road for the sake of information, we'll be hosting meetings with Polish buy side beginning of March. We will be on the road with international investors starting from the first conference mid-March. And for the time being, we kindly invite you to the press conference call that will be held in already 20 minutes including the CEO of the company, Ireneusz Fafara.
Thank you very much for this call and see you in the Q1 conference call in May.
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Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- EBITDA LIFO Q4: PLN 12,2 Mrd; Konzern-EBITDA LIFO 2025 ≈ PLN 42 Mrd (EBITDA = Ergebnis vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen; LIFO = Bestandsbewertungsmethode).
- Operativer Cashflow: Q4 PLN 12,9 Mrd; 2025 gesamt PLN 47,4 Mrd.
- CapEx: Q4 PLN 11,5 Mrd; 2025 gesamt PLN 32,6 Mrd; 2026 Basisplan PLN 36,3 Mrd.
- Nettofinanzposition: Nettogeld PLN 1,4 Mrd nach Reduktion der Nettoverschuldung um PLN 8,5 Mrd; Dividendenausschüttung 2025: PLN 6/ Aktie (~PLN 7 Mrd).
- Segment-Performance: Upstream Q4 PLN 4,2 Mrd (rückläufig), Downstream Q4 PLN 3,7 Mrd (plus), Energy +PLN 0,1 Mrd, Consumer Q4 PLN 1,2 Mrd.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Diversifikation & Operatives: Management betont resilienten Geschäfts-Mix; Fokus auf operative Exzellenz und maximale Auslastung trotz angekündigter Großstillstände in 2026.
- Investitionsdisziplin: Abschlussphase für Großprojekt „New Chemicals“ (Budget & General Contractor); Quartalsabschreibungen/Impairments >PLN 3 Mrd zeigen Bedarf an strenger Projektkontrolle.
- Energie‑Rollout & Finanzierung: 2026 Inbetriebnahmen geplant (Baltic Power, CCGT Grudziądz, HVO Płock); Diversifizierte Finanzierungsstruktur, Exportkredit und Revolving-Fazilitäten in Vorbereitung.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Makro‑Basecase: Management erwartet für 2026 ein weniger vorteilhaftes Umfeld als 2025 (niedrigere Raffineriemargen, tendenziell tiefere Energie‑ und Gaspreise); keine präzise EBITDA‑Guidance gegeben.
- Volatilitätsmanagement: Markt‑Risiken werden aktiv gemanagt (Hedging, Trading); operative Verbesserungen sollen Ergebnisrückgang abmildern.
- Dividende: Politik beibehalten; finale Empfehlung erfolgt mit vollständigen Jahresabschlüssen im April.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Q1‑/Jahres‑EBITDA‑Erwartung: Nachfrage zu PLN 12–13 Mrd Q1 oder Bloomberg‑Konsens PLN 37 Mrd für 2026; Management verweigerte konkrete Zahlen, nennt Makro‑Unsicherheiten.
- Cashflow vs. EBITDA: Starker operativer Cashflow 2025 erklärt durch Working‑Capital‑Effekte, Hedge‑Accounting und Rückstellungen/Umkehrungen; Risiko einer Normalisierung hängt von Preisentwicklung ab.
- M&A & LNG: Nur konkrete Transaktion: Angebot für Polyolefine Police (~PLN 1,023 Mrd); Venture‑Global‑Streit (Calcasieu) Hearing vsl. Q4 2026, Urteil H1 2027; Plaquemines‑Lieferungen sollen ab Q4 starten, volle US‑LNG‑Belieferung 2027 erwartet.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Handlungsimplikation: 2025 war operativ und liquiditätsstark; für Aktionäre wichtig bleiben CapEx‑Disziplin, Auswirkungen der impairments und die Frage, wie nachhaltig der 2025er Cash‑Überhang ist. 2026 dürfte volatilere Makrobedingungen und geplante Shutdowns bremsen – Dividende wahrscheinlich, Finalentscheidung mit Jahresabschluss.
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Welcome again. We are sitting here in Orlen headquarters in a meeting room to discuss Q3 and 9 months of 2025 ending September 30 financial and operating results. We are here in the room with Slawomir Jedrzejczyk, Group CFO; Daniel Obajtek; and my name is Jakub Frejlich, I'm Head of Investor Relations. Please don't -- please mind that we're doing it old school without video. So this is normal [indiscernible] function or technical problem. We would like to keep it that way for the time being and maybe further. So we will kick off. We're still having some joiners coming in. But since this is 5 past already, we'll be kicking off. And now I'll hand over to Slawomir, please.
Thank you, Jakub. So good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Let me start only by saying it's good to be back. Warm welcome to everyone. It's my pleasure and privilege to present Orlen quarterly results. I would like to start with the highlights. First of all, macro environment and mixed views on that. First of all, lower oil and gas prices. So as you know, that impacted our upstream business. However, very good refining environment, very high margins. In petrochemicals, still, we see market pressure, both in terms of margins and volumes. Electricity, stable prices. And in terms of retail, fuel retail, we observed lower fuel consumption, especially in diesel. And let's look at operations, and this is very positive news, I believe. We delivered very good results in operations, higher gas production, distribution and sales, higher throughput and wholesale fuel sales.
However, lower sales in petrochemical, as I said, higher electricity production and higher nonfuel sales in retail. So as a result, if we look into the financials, we delivered very solid EBITDA, close to PLN 9 billion, very high cash flow from operations altogether for the first 9 months of 2025, PLN 34.4 billion. And we managed to continue our CapEx program. Altogether, we spent PLN 21.1 billion for the first 3 quarters, and we paid record high dividend of PLN 7 billion. So as a result, we managed to decrease our debt level by PLN 6 billion in 2025. So now let's move to Slide #4, which is highlights, financial results highlights. As you can see, revenue dropped to PLN 61 billion in the third quarter. However, that was due to the fact that oil and gas prices were lower. Then very solid EBITDA, close to PLN 9 billion altogether, close to PLN 30 billion in the first 3 quarters. Very good cash flow from operations, as I said, although in the third quarter, slightly lower than in past quarters due to the fact that we increased our working capital by PLN 2 billion in the third quarter due to the fact that the prices increased and the volume increased. CapEx, we continue our CapEx program.
Our budget was PLN 35 billion. So currently, after 3 quarters, PLN 21.1 billion. I will come back to this in the slide dedicated to CapEx. And as a result, free cash flow close to PLN 1 billion and very, very safe net debt position and net debt-to-EBITDA of 0.14x. So now let's move to EBITDA delivered by segments. As you can see, we delivered good results in all the segments, Upstream and Supply, PLN 3.3 billion; downstream, PLN 2.4 billion; Energy, PLN 2.2 billion and customer and products, PLN 1.6 billion. So altogether, PLN 8.9 billion. And what's very interesting, I believe, is that the bottom is a change year-on-year. So in Upstream, it's minus PLN 3.2 billion, but I would like to pay your attention that basically the results of '24 were, let's say, inflated, PLN 1.8 billion out of this PLN 3.2 billion is basically higher gas prices we achieved in '24 due to the fact that we contracted '24 based on '23 prices, PLN 0.8 billion is basically purchase price allocation that inflated results in '24. So you may say that this drop is, of course, due to the fact that there were lower prices of oil and gas. However, please bear in mind that '24 is not comparable due to those 2 one-offs, let's say. In Downstream, PLN 1.9 billion higher results, which is, I believe, great due to fantastic macro environment in refining from the refining margin point of view. Very solid results in Energy and Consumer Products.
Corporate functions increased by more than PLN 200 million. PLN 100 million is, you may say, phasing and PLN 100 million is due to the fact that we increased our labor and general expenses by a few percentage points year-on-year. Now let's move to Slide #6, where we present our operational results. And this is evidence what I said that from operations, it was a very good quarter. So we increased production and wholesale gas sale in upstream and supply. We slightly increased crude oil throughput and wholesale fuel sale by 1 percentage point. However, you can observe here minus 16% drop in petrochemical, and this is clear evidence that petrochemicals under huge pressure, both from petrochemical margin perspective as well as volumes. In energy, steady growth in almost all areas, gas distribution plus 3%; heat generation, plus 5%; electricity generation, plus 7%. And what's very important, renewables generation increased by 43%. So what I can say is that currently in the electricity generation, renewables constitute 17%. This is 4 percentage point increase as compared to last year. As regards Consumer and Products, very good results in the retail gas and electricity sales. However, we see some pressure on the consumption of fuel in Poland, especially diesel. That's why you can see that our retail fuel sales dropped by 2 percentage points. Now let's move to each segment where we elaborate more.
So let's start with Page #7, Upstream and supply. We managed to produce up to 200,000 BOE per day. Majority of this -- more than half of this is, of course, Norway, but then we have Poland and the remaining amount is Canada and Pakistan. Majority of this is gas production. And if you can see, the result is lower by PLN 3.2 billion. But as I explained, upstream Poland and Upstream International, this negative -- huge negative impact of lower gas and oil prices was to some extent or even a big extent, offset by higher production, both in Poland and Norway. And this PLN 2.8 billion, as I explained before, basically, this is lower realized gas sale price. So you may treat it as a kind of one-off from '24 and negative impact of the settlement of PPA, this is PLN 0.8 billion again from 2024. So now let's move to Downstream. And definitely, high refining margins help us a lot. So in the third quarter, that was almost doubling USD 15.2 per barrel. However, petrochemical margin is under pressure, 16% drop to PLN 168 per ton, but was very good. I believe crude oil production improved by 1%. So utilization of our Polish operations was basically 100%, whereas Lithuania, 94%. And in Czech Republic, that was lower utilization, 75% due to plant and unplanned shutdowns.
So there was a failure in Litvinov. So that's why we produced less petrochemical products. So as you can see on this slide, petrochemical is minus PLN 92 million contribution to EBITDA LIFO. However, if it hasn't been for Litvínov failure, I believe that would be a kind of slight plus in the petrochemical business as well. However, we all know that we are looking at downstream business from the whole value chain perspective. So of course, great refining is offset by weak petrochemical business. However, altogether, I believe Downstream delivered very solid results of PLN 2.4 billion. Now let's move to Energy. The biggest improvement, higher result by PLN 500 million basically and the biggest improvement is in distribution networks of PLN 318 million, and that was basically due to increase in gas distribution volumes and higher gas and electricity distribution tariffs. In all other areas, as you can see, heating, conventional energy, new energy and electricity trading, we delivered positive results as well. Now let's move to Consumer & Products. Very stable result in retail, fuel and shops. And we see some pressure on the consumption and on the volumes. That's why it was a slight -- slight drop in this -- in that area. However, we managed to regain that drop from the nonfuel sale. We continued our promotions during summer period. So that decreased the margins.
However, we managed to regain that from the nonfuel sale. And this increase of PLN 300 million is basically retail electricity and gas. But please bear in mind that part of this increase was again a kind of one-off from '24 that was positive impact of the settlement of PPA, roughly PLN 100 million, so slightly inflated the results. Altogether, PLN 1.6 billion EBITDA, very good result in Consumer Products. Now let's move to CapEx. So you can see the split of CapEx, our budgeted CapEx for '25, PLN 35 billion, and that's almost evenly spread across upstream supply, downstream and energy. However, in the past quarters, we indicated that our CapEx program is roughly between PLN 33 billion and PLN 35 billion. So looking at utilization of CapEx -- realization of CapEx for the first 3 quarters, probably we may expect to be at the closer to the lower end of this range. However, we'll see how this develops in the fourth quarter. Of course, we continue our projects in upstream and supply to increase our production according to our strategic goals. In downstream, of course, we have 3 areas of projects. One is enlarging value chain, which is new chemical project. Then we improve our product slate, and this is the construction of, for example, hydrocracking unit in Mažeikiai or hydrocracking oil block in Gdansk.
And of course, we are doing projects that create biocomponents, second-generation bioethanol like [indiscernible] bioethanol in Jedlicze. In energy, of course, we all know that energy transformation is not only renewable energy, but we need to absolutely enlarge and modernize distribution network. So that's why you can see expansion and modernization of power grid and gas distribution network. And our key projects in the renewables energy is, of course, Baltic Sea. So we continue this project, and we target in the second half of 2026 to have this farm fully operational. We continue as well our CCGT project and Ostroleka and Grudziadz second half of '26 should be operational. And of course, we started the new projects like CCGT, Gron, the second plant and in Gdansk. As regards Consumer and Products, we expand and modernize and rebrand our fuel network stations, and we build alternative fuel stations network. So this is ongoing tasks, and we allocate sufficient CapEx for that project. So now let's move to our liquidity position. On Slide #12, we present the waterfall. So we generated -- or we delivered PLN 34.4 million operational cash flow. That was, of course, inflated by a working capital decrease, PLN 4.8 billion altogether for the first 3 quarters. However, the first quarter itself was a kind of minus PLN 2 billion. So we observed this effect of increasing oil and gas prices and volumes increase.
So we spent investment cash flow PLN 21.9 billion. That includes our leasing cash out and managed to pay a record high dividend of PLN 7 billion. So altogether, we decreased our debt by PLN 6 billion. So we are in a very good financial position for the next years to come. We all know that we have quite significant CapEx program for the next 3 years. So this safe debt position is very helpful. Maturity, this is very important as well. Average maturity. We have like 2022 and '23, so like 7 years -- 6, 7 years of average maturity. So to finalize outlook, which is probably the most interesting slide in my presentation because here, we present how we see the macro environment and our operations. So we believe that we see fourth quarter so far, at least '25 as compared to third quarter '25 positive in upstream -- positively in Upstream and Energy segments, more or less stable in downstream and lower due to seasonality in customer and products. If we deep dive a little bit in all the segments. So in Upstream and supply, higher production because we don't have any significant maintenance works. We expect higher gas prices due to seasonality and higher sales volumes as well. However, lower oil prices that can, of course, impact the upstream business as well.
But altogether, we believe it can be, at least, as I said, so far, good quarter for us. From the energy point of view, again, seasonality, so higher production sales and distribution, higher heat production, higher electricity quotations and higher gas prices may affect slightly negatively, of course, in Energy segment, however, altogether, positive as well. And mixed views in downstream, of course, refining is absolutely great, as we know. So this continues to be great. However, we may expect a little bit lower throughput, lower fuel wholesale volumes due to seasonality and of course, challenging environment in petrochemical business. So that's why, all in all, probably a kind of stable situation is the most probable outcome in downstream. And Consumer & Products, due to seasonality, we expect lower fuel sale and energy and gas negative as well. Of course, higher gas sales volumes, but we expect a negative impact of electricity tariff reduction and maintained frozen prices for household. So that concludes my presentation. So we are ready now for Q&A. So Jakub?
Yes. Thank you very much. As usual, I would like to take your questions by saying who raised their hand first. And surprisingly, but not so much to ourselves. It's Anna from UBS, who's going to be asking the first question. Please go ahead. Anna, we can't hear you.
2. Question Answer
Can you hear me now?
First will be around the wholesale margin in the refining. Can you please provide more details around what is the dynamic there? Because it looks like given how strong the refining margins currently are, it should be a very good support for the downstream segment in fourth quarter? And my second question will be around Azoty Polymers, if you can provide any color around when can we expect any updates for the deal?
Thank you for your questions. As regards to the first one, we have Slide #17, where we present the kind of the most current macro situation in the fourth quarter. As you can see, model refining margin is absolutely extraordinary. This is 18. per barrel. We all know the macro environment, I believe. So I'm not going to elaborate much on that.
This is definitely due to shortage of supply and basically the situation in Russia or the war in Ukraine. So this continue to be like that. Of course, in our base case scenario for the next quarters to come, we don't assume such a high refining margin. This is definitely extraordinary from our perspective. As regards the polymers projects, I can only confirm what is officially published. That means that we put on our offer of 1 billion cash-free debt-free and our offer is valid officially till the end of this year. So we are waiting still for the response of Grupa Azoty. So no progress official progress at least from what we are hearing in that area. Hopefully, this will develop in a positive way, but it's too early to conclude.
But regarding the wholesale refining margins, which you mentioned are a bit on the lower side. What's driving that?
You mean this model refining margin, as I explained.
No, no, no. Like in the comments for the downstream segment, for example, one of the reasons you mentioned like lower wholesale margin. So can you please clarify there, what does it mean?
Yes. This is more or less like inland premium we generate, and this is due to seasonality and lower consumption. So that's why this is our indication that in the wholesale business, the margins can be slightly lower. So this is basically the explanation.
And do you see those getting worse in fourth quarter or it will be stable?
Sorry? Please say it again?
Comparing in fourth quarter to third quarter, do you expect it to worsen further? Or will it be stable?
You mean fourth quarter?
Third quarter versus third quarter.
We expect to be slightly lower, of course, as we indicated here, lower wholesale margins in refining. But slightly lower due to seasonality, basically. So this is not going to be a significant impact, I guess, as positive impact of model refining margin, definitely.
Tomasz Krukowski. Santander.
We can't hear you.
I think you can hear me now.
Tomasz Krukowski, Santander. Three questions. The first one is specifically to Mr. Andre. And actually, I would like to hear your view on the dividend policy of the company. The company has a dividend policy. We are aware of that. But I'm wondering whether do you fully support this policy or you would like to introduce some changes to it. So this is the first one. The second is on the Energa situation. If you could give us some color in direction the analysis which you are performing is going? And the third one is on the refining. You already mentioned that you do not expect the refining macro to be so strong going forward. But actually, what is your reading of the situation right now? I mean, do you see any kind of lack of the product on the market, which is driving the prices? How is the situation with the Russian imports? What's your take on this?
Thank you so much. As regards dividend policy, of course, we have official dividend policy, which was approved by the Management Board and Supervisory Board. So definitely still valid. And I'm in a position individually to change it, of course. I can give you just my comment on dividend, and I express those comments all the time.
I was CFO in Orlen a few years ago. basically, my view is that the best dividend policy is basically to prove to the market that we are a dividend-paying company and consistently each year to pay slightly higher dividend. So if there is no extraordinary situation, my personal view is that Orlen absolutely should be a dividend-paying company, and we try to pay slightly higher each year, which was included in the strategy of Orlen from '25. And the second point, Energa, my comment on Energa is as follows. We have 4 segments, as we know, and we are much bigger due to those acquisitions we did a few years ago. So now absolutely, we should focus on creating a very efficient 4 business lines. And we are working on this efficiency in all the segments, so not only Energy segment, but as well in upstream and supply and customer and product. So this is the task which is ahead of us. We should create as agile and as flexible organization as we can. Of course, we are very, very complicated business, but we should be, as I said, as agile and flexible because macro environment can be challenging, can be dynamic. So that's why we are focusing to create in energy as well a very solid business line.
However, no formal final decisions have been made so far. So it's difficult for me to comment at this stage apart from all official information we put is going to happen with Energa. As regards to refining margin, so I believe I said that this is basically perception of the market and the shortage of fuels, which is due to the fact that some installations in Russia were attacked by Ukraine. So basically, there's a shortage of fuel, and this is basically the -- we don't expect the situation continue in a sense that it would be absolutely unwise to create base case scenario based on this margin. So that's why I said that in our base case scenario for the next year and for the next years, of course, we don't assume double-digit refining margins so that we are a little bit conservative, let's say, looking into the current situation. And it's better to be conservative, I believe, in this area than to create a business plan and then CapEx and cash out based on the huge refining margin. So that's my comment on that.
And actually, do you see the lack of the product on the market? Do you have the clients calling you and saying, giving more diesel or sending more diesel?
As regards our markets, no, we don't see a shortage. So from our perspective, absolutely, we are fully full of products.
[indiscernible].
Okay. So the first question, again, about dividend policy. Will the payout still be based on operating cash flow rather than free cash flow?
So as I said the policy. And of course, unless we change it, we are going to follow it. So as regards to dividend policy, this is, as you know, up to 25% operational free cash flow minus interest, but this is up to.
So each time each time, as you can imagine, we look before we give the final recommendation as regards to dividend payout, we look into current financial situation, current financial sting. And of course, we will propose this dividend in the second quarter of next year, probably. So we have still 2 quarters to go. So we will see how the market develops, how our cash flow look like, how our CapEx programs continue, and then we'll make the final decision. But yes, this is our...
Okay. So you don't assume any changes in dividend policy?
Unless we update our strategy and we change.
Okay. The second question from my side. isn't your approach too conservative when you look at downstream segment for the fourth quarter, assuming current $25 a barrel refining margin?
Of course, this is our perception. Maybe that's my view. It's better to be slightly less conservative than more optimistic. However, this is our assumption based on 6 weeks of the fourth quarter. So still, we have 6 weeks to go, and anything can happen. So this is our impression so far. And if you look purely from the refining margin, model refining margin perspective, which is more than PLN 18 billion -- USD 18 per barrel.
So this is absolutely great. However, we have some challenges, as you know, in petrochemical business. Petrochemical margin is lower than the third quarter. Of course, our volumes should be slightly higher. We still don't know from the operations point of view, how our assets will operate. So that's why we are more cautious on that. That's why we present more or less stable situation. So stable situation means small pluses, small minuses, and we'll see. We'll see how the fourth quarter.
We don't have follow-ups, please, Ricardo [indiscernible].
Can you hear me?
Yes.
A couple of questions on my side, if I may. The first one is on the CapEx. You mentioned that you're probably going to be at the lower end of the guidance of PLN 33 billion for this year. Can we assume that those -- that the PLN 2 billion would be spent next year?
Or do you expect some CapEx savings and you might not have to disburse those PLN 2 billion? And then the second one is on the Consumer Products segment. You're talking about some of the margin pressures because of promos during the summer, just how the market is in Poland now. Do you still see some pressures there and you're still doing -- having to do some promos? And when should we expect margins to stabilize or even see some inflection on the margin side?
Thank you so much. So as regards CapEx, -- if you assume that we have the budget of PLN 35 million, and I said that the range was PLN 33 million, 35 million. So basically, there are 2 items -- 2 big items that affects lower CapEx utilization. First one is CapEx spend on gas ships. Probably we explained that, that in the base case CapEx, we assumed 4 ships to be delivered. However, this year, only 2 will be delivered and the next 2 will be delivered next year. So that's why out of PLN 2.4 billion CapEx, PLN 1.2 billion will be booked this year and PLN 1.2 billion will be booked next year. So this is a kind of movement to next year.
And second billion, we explained probably as far as my colleague told me, it was first quarter upstream, upstream projects. So we decided to just not to continue with one of the projects. That's why we decreased the CapEx plan for upstream. So it's difficult for me to say whether this is postponed or not, but because in Upstream, of course, we have our plan to deliver more production in the next years to come. So definitely, in Upstream, we'll prepare the CapEx for '26, which is appropriate to the targets we initiated in our strategy. So this is as regards CapEx. As regards Consumer & Products, I would say the margins are stable, and this is a kind of market time to time, we create promotions. If we create promotions, basically, we create promotions and to decrease the margins or to decrease the sales prices. And as a result, the margin slightly decreases. However, our goal is to regain this in nonfuel sale. We have more customers enrolling to our VITAY program as a result, so loyalty program. So definitely, we are going to continue with that.
And if I may follow up on the upstream. On the strategy update, you had mentioned that you were looking at potential M&As in North America and the North Sea as well to increase your upstream production. Is there any updates on that front?
I can give you a little bit kind of my personal view and the corporate view as well. Basically, we have quite significant CapEx for the next years, 3 years to come. Our flexibility in this CapEx is not very significant as we know. And in our strategy, we indicated that we have CapEx, basic CapEx and options for M&A. And this M&A -- in M&A, definitely, we have flexibility. So that's why I'm very cautious as regards putting any meaningful targets in M&A. We need to look into our cash flow position. We need to look into the macro environment development, and then we'll decide how much money we have -- we can allocate for M&A projects. So at this stage, I can confirm there are no meaningful projects on the table as regards upstream in U.S.
[indiscernible].
I got a question on your Upstream and Supply segment. First of all, can you tell us what kind of production dynamics do you expect next year? I think you mentioned that you plan to upgrade production in the next years. And the second question, can you tell us anything on your gas wholesale margins going forward? When I look at your gas contracts signed for next year, I see very big spreads. And can you comment on it?
So as regards to the gas production, we are in the process of budgeting for '26. So I will not give you at this stage a kind of precise number, of course. And I can confirm what's in the strategy we put as far as I remember, the number of PLN 6 billion production from Norway, like PLN 4 billion from Polish operations. So this is a kind of target for 2030. So step by step, we are going to increase this number.
As regards TO the -- can you be more specific as regards to the wholesale margin? You mean wholesale in Poland or wholesale from the kind of U.S. contracts. And...
What I mean is the gas margins in Poland, the margins which you book in the upstream and supply segment. So what I mean is the contract signed on TGE, yes, compared to 1 month TTF?
Of course, we should look into development of gas prices, of course. And you are perfectly right in a sense that I explained a little bit this positive impact in '24. So '23 gas prices were very high. We booked at the high level, then prices dropped. So as a result, we managed to deliver roughly PLN 1.8 billion extra money. As regards to development of gas prices, of course, this is a big question, what kind of development we will see in the 2026. So at this stage, we don't provide a kind of full visibility on our goals. But generally, is going to be more stable than it used to be in the previous year. So I would not assume a very significant differences year-on-year on that.
Okay. So if you look at the EBITDA of the upstream segment this year and a scenario for next year that it is stable. Is it like reasonable? Is it optimistic or pessimistic at this moment?
At this moment, I would assume stable, definitely. So we had this big drop as compared -- 2025 as compared to '24. So if you look longer term, like '26, '25, so it should be more or less -- I would assume this is the most realistic scenario, maybe slightly lower, but generally, not such a significant difference as '24, '25.
Okay. Okay. Understood. And a follow-up on CapEx. You mentioned that this year's CapEx will be like in the lower range, like closer probably to PLN 33 billion. And can you say anything about next year's CapEx? Will it -- is the PLN 33 billion benchmark a good one? Or should we expect higher CapEx because where there were some -- a few delays and I don't know, investments kick in. Can you say anything about this?
Okay. At this stage, I can refer only to our strategic plan. And if you look into the strategic goals, of course, the CapEx is higher than 33%. So I would not assume at this stage that 33% is our benchmark. So please refer to our strategic plan, which is still valid. And -- of course, in the strategic plan, we indicated this M&A as well, which is flexible. So we will be very cautious on that area. But definitely, the range in the strategic plan was higher, as you know.
[indiscernible].
I got 2 questions, if I may. The first question will be a follow-up on refining because you said that you expect lower throughput. Is this because of the -- strictly because of the seasonality? Or do you have like planned turnaround on your plants in fourth quarter? And if so, which installations are you going to turn around?
Basically, this refers to the planned shutdowns. So for example, in Orlen Lietuva, we have vacuum Flesher and this braking shutdown, plant shutdown. So that's why utilization of Orlen Lietuv is going to be below 80%. As regards Czech Republic, we have planned shutdowns as well in the steam cracker. So utilization of Czech Republic, if you assume roughly 85% would be the good assumption.
As regards quartz, we are, of course, trying to achieve as much. It should be close to 100%. However, we have some shutdowns as well. So all in all, probably will be slightly lower than 100%. So if you summarize everything and compared to the third quarter, you can assume slightly lower throughput.
Okay. And second question will be about your Orlen project because I think it was like that you plan to come up with some review of that project in September, maybe lower -- maybe changing something in a budget or in assumptions for that project. Is there anything we should know about this? Or you are going to come up with...
We continue our project.
Yes, yes. Thank you for this question. We continue this project. We have only one item still on the table, which is final agreement with general contractor, CHT. And our goal is at least to conclude this up to the end of this year. However, we'll see how the situation develops. And when we have this final agreement with synchronized all the timetables and created the budget, the final kind of budget allocation and budget update. And once we are ready, we'll go to the market and communicate the full picture of that investment. So we should expect that probably first quarter next year.
It does seem that the last speech [indiscernible] because there are no further questions unless this is for the -- we have a follow-up from Tomasz, good timing.
Yes. Just one on the CapEx. There's quite a lot of investments, especially in the downstream and in energy, which will be completed next year in 2027. And could you give us an estimate what kind of contribution to EBITDA would you expect from those completed investments in 2026 and in 2027, given current macro conditions, not the one which you had when you started those projects, but those that are at this moment.
One minute ago, I was happy that I answered all the questions. However, finally, there is a question I cannot answer. So sorry for that, but those are the numbers we basically don't specify in details. And first of all, let's wait let's wait for these projects to be concluded. Once they are concluded, we look at into the macro environment, and then we may discuss in more detail. So sorry for this. But at this stage, please allow me not to give you any specific numbers.
But in general, do you expect this contribution to be positive? Or you think that there are going to be some projects which will be burning at the beginning?
We believe that all the projects will be positive. However, the question is about the returns. And that's why we book this kind of impairments. Maybe this is the topic we can elaborate. In the third quarter, we booked PLN 1.1 billion impairment of new chemical projects, PLN 0.3 billion on the bottom of the bar in Mažeikiai.
So you can -- this is a clear evidence that those projects are not delivering the return higher than weighted average cost of capital. However, this is not negative projects from the EBITDA point of view because it hasn't been negative from the EBITDA, it's a kind of wise move to just basically close this down, as we know. So you can assume definitely positive and which projects are difficult from the return perspective, you can observe our impairments, which we post.
Now it seems that we left you speeches. So we will be concluding before the market opens. Thanks very much for answering this wake-up call from Orlen today. We may consider doing that going forward to have it before the session kicks off, but we're open for your feedback. Thanks very much for joining us today. If you have a spare hour in half an hour, we're having a press conference, including the CEO, so you can access it online. But for joining us. Thanks very much for your insightful questions, and see you in a quarter unless we see on the road before.
Thank you very much. Thank you Bye-bye.
Thank you very much.
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Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: PLN 61 Mrd. im Q3 (Rückgang vs. Vorjahr) — Primär getrieben durch niedrigere Öl‑ und Gaspreise.
- EBITDA: PLN ~8,9 Mrd. im Q3; PLN ~30 Mrd. für 9M 2025 (EBITDA = Ergebnis vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen).
- Operativer CF: PLN 34,4 Mrd. für 9M (starker operativer Cashflow, aber Q3 leicht niedriger wegen +PLN 2 Mrd. Working Capital).
- CapEx: YTD PLN 21,1 Mrd. vs. Budget PLN 33–35 Mrd.; Management rechnet mit Realisierung eher am unteren Ende.
- Bilanz: Rekorddividende PLN 7 Mrd.; Nettoverschuldung um PLN 6 Mrd. gesenkt; Net‑Debt/EBITDA 0,14x (sehr konservativ).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Dividendenpolitik: Fortführung der Ausrichtung als zuverlässiger Dividendenzahler; Ziel: konstante, tendenziell steigende Ausschüttungen (Policy: bis zu 25% operativer FCF minus Zinsen).
- CapEx‑Prioritäten: Weiteres Investment in Upstream, Downstream und Energie (inkl. Offshore Baltic Sea, CCGT‑Ausbau); einige Lieferungen/Projekte verschoben, daher CapEx‑Timing flexibel.
- Operationalisierung & Effizienz: Fokus auf Integration und Effizienzsteigerung (u.a. Energa), Ausbau von Nicht‑Kraftstoffumsätzen und Erneuerbaren; selektive M&A‑Bereitschaft, aber aktuell keine großen Targets.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Q4‑Erwartung: Positiv für Upstream und Energy (Saisonalität), Downstream eher stabil, Consumer & Products saisonal rückläufig.
- Risiken: Außergewöhnlich hohe Refining‑Margen werden nicht als Basisannahme für 2026 genommen; Öl‑/Gaspreise und Petrochemie‑Druck bleiben Unsicherheitsfaktoren.
- CapEx‑Hinweis: Verschiebungen (z.B. 2 von 4 Gasschiffen) verschieben ~PLN 1–1,2 Mrd. in 2026; Gesamtjahresausgabe dürfte näher am unteren Band liegen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Refining‑Marge: Nachfrage nach Haltbarkeit der hohen Margen; Management sieht kurzfristige Angebotsknappheit (Russland/Ukraine‑Effekte), bleibt aber konservativ für Basisplan.
- Azoty Polymers: Angebot von PKN gilt offiziell bis Jahresende; kein weiterer Fortschritt kommuniziert.
- Dividende & CapEx‑Timing: Analysten hinterfragten Ausschüttungsbasis (operativer vs. freier Cashflow) und Verschiebungen in CapEx; Management bestätigt Policy und erklärt einzelne Posten wurden auf 2026 verschoben.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Ergebnis: Operativ stark und sehr starker Cashflow, konservative Bilanz; Ergebnisstärke aber stark von derzeit hohen Raffineriemargen abhängig. Schwäche in Petrochemie und Projekt‑Abschreibungen erfordern Selektivität bei Bewertungen. Für Aktionäre: stabile Dividenden‑Story und defensive Bilanz, aber Margen‑/Commodity‑Risiken beachten.
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good afternoon, everyone. We were holding up a few minutes to make sure that we are already in the afternoon also. Please welcome Mrs. Magdalena Bartos, CFO of the ORLEN Group for the presentation of Q2 financial results of the 2025. You guys who kindly joined us to discuss these results. Together with us in the room is Przemyslaw Wasilewski, Head of Strategic Finance; Marcin Piechota and Konrad Wlodarczyk. My name is Jakub Frejlich, I'm Head of Investor Relations.
So without further ado, I'll pass on to Magda. Please, the floor is yours.
Thank you, Kuba. I suspect we still have some audience from London. So it still needs to be good afternoon or good morning, depending where you are. I am anyways pleased to have you all on this call for another quarterly presentation. And as previously, we will go through some general information on financials before we dive into detailed segment conversation, and we will conclude with our views on the remainder of the year and some summary on the outlook. But to begin with, I am very pleased to open this presentation on a strong note.
The second quarter of 2025 was indeed a strong one, both financially and operationally and proves our consistent operational excellence across the board in all segments, you will see some strong messages as to our operational performance. Despite the decrease in revenue, speaking about the general financial information, the group's EBITDA reached PLN 9.2 billion, a significant PLN 4.2 billion improvement year-on-year. And as a group, we still operated in a much more challenging macroeconomic environment compared to last year that particularly affected margins realized in our Upstream and Supply segment, Downstream segment, refining and petrochemical margins as well.
On the other hand, these results were supported by a better regulatory environment specifically thanks to the absence of the gas windfall tranche that we still recorded last year. So that is why we consider exceeding PLN 9 billion of EBITDA in a seasonally -- typically seasonally weaker quarter to be a very solid result. And on top of that, we significantly improved our cash flows due to higher operating results, but also lower working capital needs resulting from lower commodity prices.
And at the end of Q2, our net debt still stood at around 0, similar to the end of the first quarter. However, this level will gradually change due to an upcoming dividend payout scheduled for the 1st of September and delivery of our investment road map.
Let's move on to the next page. And here, our key messages that the results -- the satisfactory EBITDA result was driven by strong business performance across all segments, across the board, as I mentioned. And on a year-on-year basis, a significant improvement is seen in the -- was recorded in the Upstream and Supply segment. However, and that's due to the softer regulatory background. However, it is worth emphasizing that each segment, each remaining segment contributed to the result on a large -- on an equally basis to a large extent. And this really speaks out to the strength of diversified business model and resilience to seasonality.
And now let's take a deeper look into operational data, operational KPIs. Comparing that operational data year-on-year, in the upstream and supply segment, gas and crude oil production decreased by 11% and 16%, respectively, and that's primarily to maintenance works performed in Norway that's planned, especially on the Phase 3 Ormen Lange field on a side note here, that work has been completed, delivered is already contributing to results in the third quarter and was completed ahead of schedule and below the budget.
Wholesale gas sales increased due to higher demand from industrial clients and also higher volumes sold in the exchange. In the downstream segment, crude oil throughput increased while refining sales remained at a similar level. Petrochemical sales decreased. And here, we faced even growing product oversupply, specifically massive imports coming from the U.S. and Asia. We'll talk about it more later on.
In the Energy segment, electricity production increased by 27%, and that is largely due to higher renewables capacity. Our renewables capacity by the end of the year will have expanded by another -- sorry, 240 megawatts. Heat production increased by 9%, and that's primarily due to weather, specifically lower temperatures in May and therefore, prolonged heating season. And this also had a significant impact on the gas distribution volumes. Gas distribution volumes grew by 12%, 7% increase and 7% increase in retail gas sales. Retail fuel sales remained at a similar level compared to last year.
And now detailed look or a deeper look into each of our segments. We got a summary of both operational macro and financial information for each of the segments presented. We start with Upstream and supply that delivered very solid performance with PLN 3.4 billion of EBITDA, an increase of PLN 4.3 billion year-on-year. And that's -- and in the second quarter, we were already in the second quarter of this year, we were already free of gas windfall charge. And in the same quarter of last year, windfall charged the P&L was PLN 7.7 billion. That basically explains the difference between the 2 quarters for the Polish Upstream.
In the second -- so a significant factor as well boosting the results in the Upstream and supply segment is the increase in gas quotations, gas prices by over 10%. This was somewhat limited by a 20% drop in crude oil prices and the strengthening of Polish zloty against the U.S. dollar and Norwegian krone. EBITDA generated from oil and gas wholesales trading amounted to almost PLN 400 million compared to the second quarter of last year. Margins on wholesales gas sales deteriorated, the spread increased narrowing, which despite higher sales volumes was the main reason for the decrease in that business line. Now our focus in upstream and supply remains firmly on maximizing value, efficient production and growing sales volumes.
Now moving on to Downstream. Downstream segment EBITDA LIFO was PLN 2.2 billion, down by PLN 0.6 billion. Both the refining and petrochemical business lines have declined, but that is primarily due to a more challenging macroeconomic environment already mentioned. The refining margins with differential deteriorated, decreased by 13% and petrochemical margins by a strong 21%. Unlike the previous year, there were no positive one-offs, no benefit to the results from that. As a reminder, in the second quarter of last year, we received over PLN 400 million compensation for H-Oil unit shutdown. And as mentioned before, in the refining business, we maintained sales volumes -- sales volumes. However, in the petrochemicals business, we recorded a decline, and that is due to oversupply of products coming from the U.S. and China, but also disruptions at Anwil that impacted the availability of petrochemical units.
And the Energy segment coming next. To summarize, we see a story of expansion and efficiency here. Energy segment generated PLN 2.3 billion of EBITDA, up of PLN 0.4 billion year-on-year, and that improved results come from gas and electricity distribution largely. Those were driven by volumes growth, particularly in the gas distribution, we mentioned 12%. There's also a significant positive contribution of conventional energy business that grew by -- primarily due to higher demand from the operator, from the grid operator, while the growing role of the renewables is also worth noting here. In the second quarter, our renewables generated 0.3 terawatt hours more electricity than a year ago.
And Consumers and Products concludes the segment discussion. Consumers and Products segment generated PLN 2 billion of EBITDA, similar to the first quarter of 2025. And that's on a side note, that speaks to counter cyclicality of the 2 components of our consumers and products business and the contribution of fuel and utility businesses in this quarter was almost even. Sales and fuels were similar to those of last year in the second quarter of 2024. We also achieved higher nonfuel margins in all markets and increased profitability in our international operations. The results of retail gas grew significantly on the back of higher market demand that's related to the already mentioned lower temperatures and prolonged heating season, but also higher demand coming from our industrial clients.
Investments. In the first half of 2025, we spent almost PLN 14 billion for investments, which represented roughly 40% of our planned capital expenditure. And given that we expect the acceleration in the project execution, the road map execution in the second half year, we maintain our CapEx forecast of roughly PLN 35 billion, probably the PLN 35 billion being at the top range of our expectation. And the 40% of progress at the end of the second quarter is very typical to the previous year's trajectory of delivering our annual CapEx plans.
And in the next 2 pages, we will focus on financial standing. And in our strategy, you might remember in our strategic discussions, we emphasized the need for a proper approach towards financing of our investment projects and also ongoing operations. And we also identified the need for responsible and effective capital allocation as one of the key pillars of our strategy. And therefore, during the second quarter, we completed our functional financing strategy that targets ensuring financial liquidity, especially taking into account the complexity of our operations and the increasing volatility of environment, but also financing development and value growth of the group, all of which while maintaining financial ratios at the level defined in the strategy.
And let me just briefly remind you that the maximum leverage we expect or allow is probably better to say, is 2.0 of net debt to EBITDA. And as a result of our policy update in the first half of 2025, we managed to complete significant milestones. At the very beginning of the half year, we issued bonds worth of USD 1.25 billion dedicated to the U.S. market. And towards the end of the half year, we issued green Eurobonds worth EUR 600 million specifically dedicated to finance the energy transition.
We have also successfully applied for non-refundable support to finance our hydrogen project development worth close to PLN 1.7 billion and over PLN 1 billion of support for gas smart metering and expansion and modernization of our gas network in Poland. And moreover, we also signed significant loan agreement with European Investment Bank of PLN 3.5 billion and a loan of up to PLN 7.6 billion with the Polish Development Bank as part of the national recovery and resilience plan for our Polish audience.
There is still more to come. We're working on a few very efficient also very exciting projects related to asset-backed loans for development projects, among others, stay tuned. There's more on that coming up in the next quarters. And by doing this, we are building a portfolio of diversified sources of financing. We're strengthening while strengthening also our presence in the financial markets.
And now a bit more on the financials and our current financial standing. In terms of net debt to EBITDA, we mentioned at the beginning, we stand at a very similar level as to the one recorded for the first quarter. To be very precise, our net debt-to-EBITDA covenant was minus 0.08x, so negligible. And this confirms, obviously, a very good position, gives us a very comfortable position ahead of the dividend payout and ahead of the second half year intensification of our strategic road map delivery. At the end of the second quarter, we had PLN 5.5 billion of net cash, and we recorded in the first half PLN 6.8 billion decrease in working capital requirements related to lower commodity prices. In the first half year, we reduced the group's net debt by PLN 12.5 billion and as a result of operational cash flow generation of around PLN 26 billion less the investments realized in the first half year of PLN 13 billion.
And to conclude, our outlook for the year for 2025 as compared to 2024. What is specifically worth mentioning and underlining at this stage is definitely a favorable environment in the refining market. We are seeing the macro environment supporting this part of our business, and we can expect that the refining margins for the year should be at a very similar level to the last year, which is significantly better than what we expected at the beginning of the year.
Regarding the remaining factors, there are no significant changes here. And we -- and as such, we remain comfortable with the current consensus -- analyst consensus for the EBITDA of 2025. And this concludes the presentation. I will now open the floor to your questions, and we will be happy to take your questions in the Q&A session.
Kuba, over to you.
Thank you, Magda. Well, I saw you already jumping in with questions. So as usually, we'll start with first come, first served. So the first one to be served is from Lukasz.
[Operator Instructions]
2. Question Answer
Can you hear me?
Yes, we can.
Two questions on update on Venture Global. The first one on the arbitrage case. against Venture Global? And can you give us any update when do you expect any ruling? And can you comment on the recent losing of Shell against Venture Global in its arbitrage? That's the first question.
And the second, how much LNG from Henry quoted on Henry Hub do you expect this year? And how much do you expect next year? Those are the first 2 questions.
Let me first start with Venture Global in the arbitrage case. We indeed saw news coming about the results of Shell arbitrage case. Very difficult for us to comment on that particular case and that particular verdict. Ours is expected or some news from the arbitrage court is expected at the beginning of next year when the first seating should take place. Therefore, I think we will need to simply patiently wait until the beginning of next year to reveal some more information and news about the expected outcomes.
When it comes to the LNG delivery, we started receiving cargoes from Calcasieu Pass. In the first half year, we received 4, if I'm not mistaken. 3? All right. Thank you, Marcin. Well I see that Marcin has got details in front of him. So Marcin, let me pass over to you.
Yes. Thank you very much for this question. In fact, the Venture Global started its shipping at the end of April. And we are expecting the volumes to grow in forthcoming quarters. We are not disclosing our plan for exact volume that we are willing to receive right now. But you have our estimations about -- you have our details about the contract that it is up to 2 billion cubic meters of LNG that may be delivered from Calcasieu Pass per annum. So we expect this to be fulfilled by the venture model.
Okay. But can you perhaps -- if you cannot give us any numbers, imports numbers, but could you please tell us how much percent growth do you expect next year of imports compared to this year?
You mean only coming from Calcasieu Pass, right?
LNG based on Henry Hub, the Cheniere contract too.
Well, in total, we assume that both of the contracts that we have for Henry Hub starting from 2026 will be fully utilized. So therefore, it means almost 2 billion cubic meters coming from Cheniere and 2 additional billion cubic meters coming from Venture Global Calcasieu Pass.
Okay. But you have another 5 billion contract with Venture Global, which was supposed to be coming next year, but that's the reason I'm asking the question. Do you expect anything from this contract?
It depends, of course -- because the second part of the contract Venture Global is from different terminal, it's Plaquemines. And we are cautious about when this contract will start based similarly like in the case of Calcasieu Pass. We need to have the confirmation that it is -- that the terminal will be exporting.
To sum up, we have the contract valid. However, we're cautious on volume confirmation as we have some experience that proved us to be correct in being cautious. That's -- I guess I should be summarizing this. Maybe we can move on to the second person, Tomasz.
This is Tomasz Krukowski, Santander. Two questions. The first one is on CapEx. And I'm just wondering what are the odds of you underspending this year versus your budget? And also, when I look at your strategy and see this CapEx figure between PLN 43 billion to PLN 47 billion is the average for '25, '27. I'm just wondering are the right now you have the projects in your pipeline that could next year lift your CapEx figure to this higher level. So this is the first one.
And the second is on working capital. Second quarter was another quarter where you released quite a lot of money from your working capital. So I'm wondering what do you expect for the second half of the year? And if you could tell us more about the drivers of working capital? What was behind the release? I remember you saying last time that you were talking about some actions aiming -- some structural actions aiming at release of cash from working capital. If you could give us an update on that one.
Thank you, Tomasz. Let me start with CapEx and what are the of us under spending on the budget. I mentioned in our CapEx page here that the PLN 35 billion is rather towards the upper range of our expectations, and there are still risks around the delivery, but more around phasing. So it might be that some part of the CapEx -- well, there are simply a lot of moving parts, and it might happen that some parts of our CapEx spend will shift into 2026, but we are pushing forward and our teams are absolutely committed to deliver. We introduced also a more flexible internally tool to reallocate CapEx from the areas that are either being delayed or unsuccessful to areas that can deploy teams to deliver new CapEx initiatives or projects like, for example, in electricity distribution.
So that work is ongoing, and we strive to deliver on the '35. But whether there is a risk of some bits moving into the first quarter of 2026, there still are, and we are actively managing those risks. You also asked about projects going forward in the pipeline for '26, '28 and how it compares to the strategy. Just a quick reminder, the numbers, the figures we see in the strategy include inorganic growth as well. So we include M&A projects, not only investment in assets, i.e., organic growth.
For the investments, I think the typical investments, let's say, I think we've got very good visibility where the priorities are and what new projects will be added into our strategy road map. Those are CCGTs in Gdansk and [ Grudziadz ] and also preparations for the offshore wind farms going forward as additional. We also continue on the projects that you're seeing in our road map today as well.
When it comes to inorganic growth, there is a rich pipeline of projects. You've probably noticed and we're also a little bit looking forward to the next quarters because we haven't completed any significant transaction this year, but the pipeline is rich, and we hope to be able to communicate some good news in the coming quarters. So yes, that target is still in place or is still valid for us.
And then in terms of working capital, the decrease in working capital in the second quarter or in the first half year as we compare here end of quarter 2 versus end of 2024 was driven primarily by lower commodity prices. We do have a pipeline of initiatives that are supposed to support our working capital structurally going forward. But still, the largest impact on our working capital will always be from gas and crude oil specifically prices. And we expect these to -- we don't see any great volatility coming. I think there is a general expectation for the gas prices to remain at the current levels or even more pressure coming on those gas prices.
Crude oil prices recorded a midterm minimum, let's say. And there is no driver that would potentially or no discussed driver that would potentially reverse that trend. However, the volatility has been quite significant this year as well during the second quarter itself, there was great volatility with tariff announcements with OPEC movements related to crude oil production. So a lot going on. We will observe going forward, but we don't expect any significant changes to the commodity prices that would drive some dramatic changes in the working capital needs.
[indiscernible].
So I have 2 questions. There are some headlines discussing that you are considering your options for Energa. Can you please tell us a little bit even briefly what is at stake here? Like there's press articles talking that this subsidiary wants to raise capital and put more projects into operations. There's a number of politicians talking press also what else they want to achieve and you originally, I remember ORLEN announced tender offer for 100%. So can you please tell us what options you could briefly -- you will be briefly discussing with the adviser as the headline suggested you hired one.
And second one, could you please also help us understand where you stand on this Azoty PDH project, whether -- I mean, you -- I think what's the latest if you extended the term sheet or where we are?
Yes. With regards to Energa I think I will need to separate my answer from the public noise and focus on the facts. So the fact is that we've got a significant energy group that -- a significant energy group in Poland that is traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, and there are minority shareholders that have expressed their dissatisfaction with the fact that ORLEN has got a majority stake with Energa. We tried tendering for Energa shares in the past that was unsuccessful and we are still ORLEN on its corporate balance sheet finances the development plan of Energa and all the major investment projects. And we obviously need to find the best way going forward to deliver on our strategy objectives in terms of energy segment and to support producing returns to our shareholders.
So we ask a reputable advisory firms to propose solutions that we would potentially implement going forward. The reason for hiring an adviser here is that we simply want to have an independent view. We want to analyze any possible option. So even the, if there is an option that is potentially feasible, we want that to be analyzed, put on the table and then together with Energa and Energa stakeholders decide on the future of us and where the synergies are simply to be delivered.
And when it comes to Azoty PDH, you probably have noticed an announcement from Grupa Azoty that we decided not to put a binding offer and not to proceed with the shell transaction. That is indeed true. However, we are still committed to the project, and we see the asset as a high-quality asset. Our interest now that we are exploring is in the logistical assets. There is a significant energy that we can deliver to ORLEN in the port, specifically propane reloading operations. We've got a propane port, smaller port, shallow water port in Swinoujscie that is very close to Polita. We could deliver propane on larger vessels to Polita and then deliver on synergies related to logistical costs.
That is clearly an interesting option that we are discussing with Grupa Azoty that can be combined with the needs of the PDH projects, and that's something we are exploring going forward.
And what's going to happen with the PDH installation? Is it going to start or...
There's enough capacity at the port to serve both furnaces.
Anna Kishmariya, UBS.
I hope you can hear me. Several questions. First will be around the Litvinov outage. If you can provide some color on what is expected there, how fast it can be restarted, et cetera?
And one around your estimates for the gas trading segment results in third quarter. Like if you can provide some color of how are the trading margins looking currently?
Anna, there was an outage in Czech Republic that impacted our Litvinov plant in July. We managed to restart operations in Litvinov, but when restarted to full capacity, we noticed certain disruptions in our steam cracker units. As such, we decided to -- or as a result, we decided to shut down the steam cracker that puts the refinery at minimum capacity. We are currently analyzing the reasons for those disruptions and putting a plan together in order to eliminate and repair the unit. It is definitely a matter of weeks, not days, but there is still no final solution or final plan on the table.
An estimate on gas trading, just a quick reminder, we don't have a gas trading segment. We've got an upstream and supply segment that deals with supplying volumes to the market and other segments. But I mentioned already that we have experienced narrowing spreads for the gas trading that should probably stabilize going forward as the volatility in gas prices is also lower than in the previous years. Therefore, that's probably to be expected. So narrower spreads but stabilized situation.
Ricardo.
Sure. So first question that I have is on the olefin project, how things are going on your side? And should we continue to expect any sort of more visibility and more details by year-end?
And then the second question, it's on -- we've seen those -- some announcements from China and South Korea on petchem, something on refining as well, potential capacity closure. Given how we've been seeing a challenging environment for petchems in Europe, do you think that if we go ahead and see some of those closures that could help your margins? Or do you think it's more of a headline and nothing really changing on the fundamentals?
I think I will start with the comment that for us, petrochemicals production is not really a stand-alone business, it's part of an integrated value chain. So we still benefit from petrochemicals production by increasing throughput at our refineries. And that's a critical comment as compared to other players in the market that are announcing closures and because they don't benefit from the integrated value chain. Whether those closures will support our margins, we surely hope so, and we expect some improvement, but we're also very cautious with those expectations. So none of our plans is internal plans include any optimistic expectation on the cycle trend reverse.
We see structural changes in the market when it comes to feedstock. We see structural changes in the market when it comes to capacities. Demand is also soft in Europe. Therefore, we keep our expectations rather lower and focus on operational efficiency and utilizing the integrated value chain margins.
When it comes to the new olefins projects, we've seen a lot of work done over the past 2 quarters in order to prepare an integrated plan, combining the work to be delivered on the ISBL and OSBL and discussing with our partners about the contractors, but also trading partners. We've delivered on some significant milestones. The next one that we would like to communicate and discuss publicly is an updated budget, which we promised to come back to you with end of September. We might have some struggles as discussions with the contractors are ongoing, but there is a plan to deliver on that promise and present the budget end of September.
Oleg Galbur, please.
I have 2 questions. The first one is regarding the recently announced asset impairments. As those impairments were triggered by the deterioration of macro assumptions for the ongoing project, could you please tell us how would the new macro expectations impact your EBITDA guidance for the downstream segment, specifically for 2027 and more importantly, for 2030, where you guide for PLN 6 billion to PLN 7 billion and PLN 10 billion to PLN 11 billion, respectively.
And the second question is a follow-up on your earlier comments about the petrochemical business. I noticed that the model petchem margin has improved quite significantly in the second quarter versus the first quarter. At the same time, the segment results have improved or the loss has decreased significantly less. So I was wondering, first of all, which level or how do you see evolving the petchem margins in the short term? And second of all, what level of margins would you require in order to bring the petchem business to breakeven, for example, if you have some ideas?
I hope I got your questions correctly because there was some deadline, but I'll start with asset impairments. Let me clarify. We've got -- in our first half year asset impairment, we've got, let's say, 2 groups of impairments. One related to upstream, specifically in the second quarter, Upstream got impaired -- parts of upstream got impaired due to lower realized crude oil prices. It's not really about our expectations. The standard requires us to recalculate when there is a potential impairment indicator and the drop in crude oil price is such an indicator. Therefore, hence, we recalculated our reserves to the current prices and recorded some impairment in upstream.
On the other hand, we also reversed impairment in upstream as due to our ongoing investments in the exploration assets, we are increasing efficiency and that allowed us to reverse some of the previously recorded impairments. The impairments we've got in downstream are not really driven by deteriorating macro environment. We've got 2 large investments, the olefins project and bottom of the barrels of the hydrocracking unit in Mažeikiai in Lithuania that simply are in the red. And as we continue delivering on those projects, we are reevaluating the value in use if that's lower than the spend CapEx we simply need to write off the CapEx that we spent during the quarter. So it's not that there is some change in our expectations related to macroeconomic environment. It's more the sense of the past, so to say, that we need to simply deal with on an ongoing basis.
And you also asked about the model petchem margins. Those improved quarter-on-quarter, but still dropped by more than 20% year-on-year. So we are simply in a persisting very difficult macroeconomic environment. Those changes in the petrochemicals model margins are not really due to any movement in the market related to prices or profitability of those, mostly related to feedstock. So with the lower crude oil price, we've got lower naphtha prices and that is part of our petchem margin computation, hence, the increase in the petchem model margin. But the results were indeed in the Q2 weaker than in Q1 because I also mentioned disruptions in the operations. We had blackout in May at our Anwil units, our Anwil plant, and that disrupted operations and volumes produced, hence, a difficult quarter for that business line to manage to navigate through.
May I just ask one confirmation for the first question. So does it mean that you see no need to revise your EBITDA guidance for the Downstream segment for '27 and 2030 as a result of the impairments that we discussed about.
We see no significant change to our strategic assumptions. Hence, of course, we will reevaluate our strategic plans towards the end of the year also financially, but no significant structural change to our expectations for each of the segments.
Michal Koza, Trigon. Please.
Do you hear me well?
Yes.
Okay. So 2 questions from my side. The first one, what is the total size of Gazprom's claims against ORLEN? And how much is it booked in your provisions?
And the second question, how much do you pay for chartering LNG ships in wholesale trading? What was the CapEx amount in this subsegment in upstream and supply in the first half of this year? And could this cost rise and hit EBITDA if imports grow in the coming years? It seems to me that there is no free cash flow in this line in the first half of the year due to high CapEx due to high charters.
I will start with Gazprom, but Marcin, in the meantime, if you could find some more detailed information on the chartering and ships. All right. So Gazprom and the recent arbitrage decision and how it's reflected in our financial statements. The arbitrage decision was to revise gas sales prices to an updated formula. So in essence, we simply acquired gas at lower prices that was the decision of the court in 2018, 2019 and 2020.
We recalculated all of the purchases and came up with a maximum amount of $290 million. And that is recorded as transitional liability and included in our financial statements. We, however, assessed in detail what is the probability of the future economic benefit outflow. We are currently unable due to sanctions and regulations to settle off that liability, and we don't expect that situation to change rapidly. Therefore, we precut several scenarios evaluating the probability of us having the obligation to -- the obligation or actually the possibility to pay because the obligation we have already and we came up with an accrual provision of PLN 217 million.
We will reevaluate that provision each quarter, exactly evaluating what is the possibility of the future economic benefit outflow. There is a bit more to notice here the situation with the settlement to Gazprom is quite complex. There is another at least 2 cases that we expect in the next years relates to a revision of gas sales prices for '21 and '22 as well and one relates to interest payments. Therefore, in order to have the full picture, we will need to conclude on those remaining cases, but the first one is already reflected in the financial statements in our books.
And Marcin, over to you for the ships and shipping.
Yes. Indeed, the CapEx that we have in our plans for the charter of LNG carriers is over 2 billion for 2025. However, we will look into more details in reference to the forthcoming years, how this will look like, and we'll get back to you on the follow-up.
[indiscernible].
I only have one question because you referred to the analyst consensus with respect to EBITDA line. However, I was wondering if you could refer to also the DGTS, right, which is right now, as I'm looking at the Bloomberg terminal is 5.7 for next year. And I was wondering after this first half, we saw the operating cash flow numbers, which is a base for calculations for the calculation of dividend in your case. And you see that there is a risk that the CapEx spend is also going to be lower than you guided. Is that -- does it mean that we could expect even a higher dividend, like a total dividend next year in 2026?
The way to respond to this question or the way I am going to respond to the question is evaluating -- we need to -- when making the dividend decision next year, we will take into consideration operating cash flows and the quality of the operating cash flows. So far, we have been happy with the quality of operating results our segments delivered. Volumes are solid. Macroeconomic environment is difficult or more difficult than it used to be, but the macroeconomic environment in the downstream segment is supporting our business. All in all, good performance in a more stable, however, weaker environment.
Then the next is the financing availability. We've done a lot of work on the financing, secured around PLN 10 billion of preferential or nonrefundable financing. We issued 2 rounds of bonds, one successfully entered the U.S. dollar market and reopened the green financing in euros. We are also working on other asset-backed financing arrangements, as I mentioned. Therefore, as we stand today, it is probably going to be a tick in the box when it comes to availability of financing and the quality of our funding structure.
And then lastly, of course, the CapEx plans and the needs going forward. So far, we've delivered on the plan. There might be some delay here and there. Again, as I said, a lot of moving parts but we see the situation under control. So as we stand today, we are on a journey towards a recommendation -- dividend recommendation that is going to be exactly in line with our dividend policy. So up to 25% of operating cash flows less financing costs. Does that make sense?
Yes. Thank you. Thank you very much.
Now we move on to Gustavo [indiscernible].
Congrats on the strong results. I had just a couple of questions from my side. First of all, I'm trying to think here what are the main drivers that are keeping petrochemical prices at these trough conditions that you mentioned into the second half of the year, if you could elaborate a bit on the macro backdrop and if you have any visibility on the timing of any potential recovery in the industry that could support margins? Yes, that would be my first question.
Margins in our prices in petrochemicals business is a play of supply and demand. And what we're seeing in Europe is softer demand and what we're seeing in Europe is an oversupply, specifically coming from imports. And of course, the situation we discussed with the previous question, so the closures of units in Europe and limiting local supply will, to some extent, soften or not really soften, ease the situation and support the prices. But whether that will be the scale that everyone expects is actually relatively hard to comment.
Again, for us, as I mentioned, while we would love to benefit from an easier softer market -- sorry, not a softer market, but an easier market, we are still benefiting from an integrated value chain and margins realized on both refining and increased throughput. That's how petrochemicals contributes to our results at this stage.
So what would need to happen for the recovery to happen? Either demand significantly improved. Will that happen with the recovery efforts for Ukraine? Will that happen with some decisions of the European Commission and changes in the European industrial landscape? Probably. But none of those, I think, is a quick fits. or limiting supply to the European market. That can happen with some regulatory decisions and legislation, but there is nothing on the kind of quick short-term horizon.
Understood. That is very helpful. My second question would be around -- if you could please give an estimate on the percentage of your EBITDA contribution that is linked to gas prices and oil prices separately. That would be very helpful.
The way we are exposed to those 2 commodities is highest, obviously, in the upstream and supply segment where we produce gas and crude oil. But on the other hand, our business model includes counter cyclicality, as I mentioned, and also some natural hedging because the same gas and crude oil is an input feedstock to production in our downstream segment. So when the prices move either way, we benefit in one segment. And while we record narrower spreads in the other segment. Gas is also input into electricity production and drives electricity prices to some extent. So I think it's a more complex picture than just applying a percentage on EBITDA contribution because there is a contribution on both ways. There is a contribution on realized prices on exploration. And here, Upstream Poland and Upstream Norway are the key pieces of the puzzle, but there is also input towards -- a significant input towards the downstream segment.
Understood. Yes. No, that is very clear. And your gas production, as far as you know, for example, 2026, do you have any estimate of how much your gas production is hedged in -- by prices?
I probably would refrain from detailed discussions on our hedging policy. That's a very sensitive information. So let me leave it this way. If you could connect with the IR team or the IR team will connect following the presentation and see how we can address that question without, again, putting us in a too uncomfortable situation revealing too much about our hedges.
Lastly, I just wanted to ask about that funding needs. You said you had some asset-backed loans that you were still working on. But other than that, should we expect any additional like bilateral loan agreements or more issuances for the rest of this year? Or do you think that your debt funding needs are already addressed as far as 2025?
Gustavo, we think or we work with our funding schedule or funding plan with a much longer horizon than just funding a year. We rather try to match our funding to the milestones and needs of our strategic road map. So it's not really about 2025 here. It's about establishing a portfolio or building a portfolio of tools and instruments that will allow us to fund our strategy in the midterm at least.
Hence, that's exactly why we reentered the -- or that's exactly why we issued bonds this year.
The markets were good and allowed us to deliver on successful transactions. We are working on some asset-backed financing. Some transactions might be ready already this year. But here, we're rather working on proper relationship and making sure that we match the funding needs to the projects because that's done a very specific financing that's not really on -- that's aimed or that's supporting a particular investment project.
So again, there's a lot going on here. What we've delivered, we've already shared with you. We've got some more news coming up, whether the projects will have finalized this year is not really that critical, but it's critical that we've got the right quality of our funding pools, the right liquidity and the right cost.
Maybe a little bit of a comment here. Financing is an ongoing project. I mean we're going to be delivering on those projects constantly and instantly on the various needs because we both require long-term capital for investments, but we also require working capital for ongoing operations. So this is a summary here that we presented and Magda discussed that actually summarizes our approach and therefore, results of this approach that have been delivered over the last 6 months.
And big money likes to be silent unless signed. And most probably, we will align to that going forward. So we are not giving heads up on that too soon. However, we're just listing here what we see as a sensible and substantial strategic delivery, so aligning required cash flows and its maturity to respective business lines or business needs that we have. This is something that is putting a lot of working hours on us and giving us the delivery or us helping delivery of the strategy, let's put it that way.
However, I would like to with that summary, leave the floor to Tamas with the last question and wrap up if you don't have anything against. So Tamas, please?
So 2 quick questions on my side. First, on the upstream. I saw that the second quarter production volume was significantly lower than the first quarter. Was it only due to the maintenance activity? Or were you losing any production? And what is your guidance actually for 2025, '26? That would be my first question.
And second question is a little bit about your distribution network, which basically brought 2/3 of the profit in the energy business. These WACC rates, what you mentioned, are they in line with the low? Or do you see any risk that the regulator may cut them in the future?
In terms of upstream and our volumes, there are 2 factors that can be seen in the second quarter results. One is lower gas production volumes, and that's due to maintenance and to some extent, investment operations as well, specifically the mentioned Ormen gas Phase 3 project. It's an add-on project to an already existing exploration asset. Therefore, we needed to adjust production in order to complete on that investment activity.
When it comes to crude oil, which is a much less impactful part of our upstream production, we obviously see some natural depletion of resources, but that is less of a focus for us. For us, the key focus in upstream is gas supply. And with all of our activities and the quality of the assets that we currently have in our portfolio, we've got positive outlook for the remainder of the year and the next years.
Distribution and return on assets, the WACC we're seeing are the return are the WACC decided by the regulator or approved by the regulator that are being used to remunerate our distribution assets on the regulated asset base. Will that change in the future? Certainly, as part of the tariff review, WACCs are being reviewed as well. But it is in the common interest of both us and other distribution operators distribution grid operators and the regulator to find the right remuneration on the asset base in order to expand and modernize the grid, which is one of the key priorities in terms of the Polish energy transition.
Thank you very much. It's a very active and lively discussion. So thank you for participating. Thank you, Magda. We'll be wrapping up. As mentioned, should you like to have any follow-ups, we will hear for you and see you in a quarter, if not before on the road.
Thank you so much. It was good to have you with us. Take Care.
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Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- EBITDA: PLN 9,2 Mrd. (+PLN 4,2 Mrd. YoY) (EBITDA = Ergebnis vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen)
- Netto‑Cash: PLN 5,5 Mrd.; Net‑Debt/EBITDA −0,08x
- CapEx H1: PLN 14 Mrd. (~40% des Jahresplans); Jahres‑Forecast ≈ PLN 35 Mrd.
- Produktion: Gas −11% YoY, Rohöl −16% YoY; Erneuerbare +27% Strom
- Segmente: Upstream & Supply EBITDA PLN 3,4 Mrd. (stark beeinflusst durch Wegfall des Vorjahres‑Gas‑Windfalls); Downstream LIFO PLN 2,2 Mrd. (−0,6 Mrd.).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Finanzierung: Portfolio‑Ansatz mit USD‑Anleihe (USD 1,25 Mrd.), grünen Eurobonds (EUR 600 Mio.), EIB‑ und PDB‑Krediten sowie Fördermitteln; Ziel: Diversifizierung und Liquiditätssicherung.
- CapEx‑Disziplin: PLN 35 Mrd. bleibt Ziel, aber Phasing‑Risiken; internes Tool zur Umlenkung von Mitteln zwischen Projekten.
- Operative Prioritäten: Wertmaximierung im Upstream, Ausbau Erneuerbarer (+~240 MW bis Jahresende), Working‑Capital‑Entlastung durch niedrigere Rohstoffpreise.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Refining: Margen für 2025 voraussichtlich auf ähnlichem Niveau wie 2024 — besser als zu Jahresbeginn erwartet.
- Gesamtprognose: Management bleibt mit dem aktuellen Analysten‑Konsens für 2025 EBITDA komfortabel; keine signifikante Anpassung der mittelfristigen Segment‑Ziele angekündigt.
- Cashflow & Dividende: Dividendenauszahlung geplant für 1. September; Nettoverschuldung dürfte sich durch Auszahlung und Investitionen verändern.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- LNG & Venture Global: Arbitrage‑verfahren unklar (Urteilserwartung Anfang nächstes Jahr); Volumen aus Calcasieu Pass steigen, Vertragspotenzial bis ~2 Mrd. m³ p.a., Plaquemines‑Tranche unsicher.
- CapEx & Phasing: Analysten fragten zu Unter‑/Überschreitung des Budgets; Management sieht Phasing‑Risiken, will Verschiebungen vermeiden und prüft Pipeline (CCGT, Offshore, M&A).
- Weitere Risiken: Energa‑Optionen (Berater beauftragt), Petrochemie‑Überangebot, Litvinov‑Ausfall und Gazprom‑Forderung (max. $290 Mio.; Rückstellung PLN 217 Mio.) wurden intensiv diskutiert.
⚡ Bottom Line
Starkes H1‑Ergebnis und netto‑Cash geben ORLEN finanziellen Spielraum; Diversifikation der Finanzierungsquellen und operative Resilienz sind positiv. Wichtige Risiken bleiben: Petrochemie‑Überangebot, Projekt‑Impairments/Phasing und Unsicherheiten bei LNG‑Lieferungen sowie Energa‑Strategie. Aktionäre profitieren kurzfristig von Cashflow‑Stärke, sollten aber CapEx‑Execution und Margenentwicklung im Petchem genau beobachten.
Finanzdaten von Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Mär '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 270.061 270.061 |
27 %
27 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 216.862 216.862 |
31 %
31 %
80 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 53.199 53.199 |
2 %
2 %
20 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 22.556 22.556 |
13 %
13 %
8 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 43.958 43.958 |
3 %
3 %
16 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 14.086 14.086 |
1 %
1 %
5 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 29.872 29.872 |
4 %
4 %
11 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 6.331 6.331 |
10 %
10 %
2 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen PLN.
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Firmenprofil
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA ist in der Verarbeitung von und dem Handel mit Rohöl tätig. Zu seinen Produkten gehören bleifreies Benzin, Diesel, Heizöl, Flugbenzin, Kunststoffe, Erdöl, aromatische Kohlenwasserstoffe und Petrochemikalien. Das Unternehmen wurde am 7. September 1999 gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Plock, Polen.
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| Hauptsitz | Polen |
| CEO | Ireneusz Fafara |
| Mitarbeiter | 66.226 |
| Gegründet | 1999 |
| Webseite | www.orlen.pl |


