Piaggio C. SPAAz Aktie

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Piaggio First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Raffaele Lupotto, Investor Relations of Piaggio . Please go ahead.

Thank you very much. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Piaggio Group First Quarter of 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. Conference call today will be hosted by Alessandra Simonotto, Piaggio Group CFO; and myself. The slides supporting today's presentation are available on Piaggio Group website. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during today's conference call, we may use forward-looking statements based on Piaggio's current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, these statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. These factors are discussed in the safe harbor statement on Page 2 of today's presentation. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Alessandra.

Good afternoon to everybody, and welcome to our conference call. After what you have already read in our presentation and in our press release, I should like to point only 4 things about our results on this first quarter. The first one, volume and net sales. As you have already read the volumes of these 3 months of 2026 are growing up versus the first quarter of 2025. It is only 2,000 vehicles, yes, but it is the beginning of a different moving of the market and the consumer confidence on our product. The Indian market has had a very good results in this period.

The APAC market is in line on our expectation. On the EMEA market, we have done a different choice because we have preferred not to push up too much on our dealers, waiting the new products that are arriving in the market in April, May and June on top of that [indiscernible] and the new Vespas. About the net sales, as you already read, we lost the 7.8%, but the effect is mostly connected to the ForEx. As you know, our region, India, APAC, U.S. are all connected to the ForEx of the USD. And so having in mind what the U.S. dollar has done in this period, we have this negative effect on ForEx. This is not something connected on the sales or on promotion and bonuses. And so it's a healthy net sales result.

The second one is the cash flow. As you've seen in the first quarter on 2026, we have absorbed only EUR 19 million against the EUR 58 million of last year in the same period. As you know, because a lot of you is in charge of analysis of Piaggio for a long time, the first quarter of the year is normally the period in which we absorb the maximum part of the cash flow because we are buying components for the second and third quarter, and we have not such a lot of quantity of sales so of revenue and credit and cash.

So in this period, having these result for us is a very good result because we put in place from the beginning of September, a lot of activities to contain inventory, first of all, and to get better results on trade receivables. So if you take a look at the results on trade receivable and inventory, you can see that we have done a good job, in my view, on this part, very important of our financial statement. The first thing is that in the EBIT result of the first quarter, we have 2 things that are a one-off versus what happened in the first quarter on 2025. The first one as tariff. In the first quarter 2025, we do not have tariffs in U.S. while in the first quarter 2026 in this EBIT that you see in our closure, we have EUR 1.5 million of impact for the new tariff on the U.S. market.

The second one is that we have the agreement we have depreciated a land in India after the closing on the basis of agreement we have in this period. So the 2 different things that more or less EUR 3 million negative impact on our EBIT. Without this, more or less, the EBIT at end of period is equal in terms of percentage, but also in terms of absolute results to the one we had in 2025. The first thing is the April results. We have closed 2 years ago the month of April in all our markets. We had the first release of volume and revenues we have seen in April for all the markets a good results in terms of volume and revenues versus what happened in 2025, and it is in line also with our forecast and our budget. So we've seen in the beginning of the second quarter in line with our expectation and with a better result on what happened last year. On top of this, I think that it is helpful for everyone of you to open the Q&A session and answer to your questions. Thank you.

Alessandra. So yes, we are ready to start the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Monica Bosio of Intesa Sanpaolo.

The company....

Monica, Raffaele speaking. We missed the first part of your question. Probably you were in mute -- can you ask again the question, please?

Yes. I will just thank you for anticipating the trend of April. What I would like to say is if amid the model changeover, the company expects sell-in to materially outpace sell-out in the quarter, a material outpace. And if so, if you could provide a rough indication of the expected sell-in growth in units for the second quarter.

My second question is on the Philippines. Can you confirm whether sales from the new subsidiary will start contributing from the second quarter? And the third question is on India. India had a strong growth in the first quarter and the momentum keeps going. What are the group's expectation for light commercial vehicles for the first half.

Monica concerning your question on April sales, yes, I can confirm that we started Q2 in April on the right foot. And at group level, volumes grew double digit, I mean, close to 20% -- close to 20% and we have 20% and with a positive contribution from all geographic areas. So this give us the confidence for the remainder part of the quarter and also because we see demand trends to remain supportive as you have seen in Europe. Concerning the second question, yes, we confirm that the new company that we made in the Philippines start selling the first vehicle in April and we have very good results in -- and then there was the third question concerning India. Yes, if we see a positive trend, yes.

Yes, we see the positive trend, and you have seen also the market share in these states. So we believe that this positive trend will be the same in the next months -- I think the second quarter in India is not better for the seasonality of the weather, as you well know.

Yes. And if I can squeeze another one is about the tax rate, which was quite high in the first quarter. What is the group's expectation for the full year?

Okay. As you know, we used for the tax rate in all the quarter closure, what we had defined for the budget of the year. And we have -- in this year, we have more or less considered an amount equal to EUR 38 million. So in this first quarter, we have begun with the same that we have put in our budget, just like the accounting principle as for any one of us. We will work in the next month to review this. Yes, this is one of our tasks just like the financial position, the cash flow and so far. But in this moment, the safest view that we have is the 38%.

The next question is from Davide Zappa of Banca Akros.

The first one, do you still see the 2026 company collected consensus aligned with your internal targets? And the second one, if you can give us a little bit of color on pricing and cost inflation, how you see them entering into 2Q and for the remaining part of 2026?

About the consensus, we believe and we think that the actual consensus is in line on our expectations. More or less, if you take in account the 2 one-offs that we have in the closing of the first quarter, the consensus and the results are more or less the same. It's clear that no one of you have thought to weigh impact of tariff in the first quarter of 2026 against the first quarter of 2025 and no one of you know the depreciation we have in India. So you put in place -- if you take in consideration the total amount of EUR 3 million on EBIT of the first quarter 2026, we are in line with the consensus. And so I think that in this moment, the consensus we have for the rest of the year is in line with our expectation, yes.

On the second point, pricing and cost inflation. As Mr. Colaninno has said in a different occasion, and he has confirmed this also today during our Board of Directors. In this moment, we do not consider any the price of our product. And we have to work as we have already done now in the last 2 or 3 years to contain the cost of inflation on our product and to maintain our margin. It is clear that gross margin of 31.6% is a very tough result. But as you have seen more or less, we were able in the last quarter in the last year to maintain 30%. We believe that the 30%, 35% is a safe result for us, and we will work in the next period for maintain this target even if the cost of inflation is something that we have in mind and we have to approach.

The next question is from Gianluca Bertuzzo of Intermonte.

The first one is on the price environment and competition in Europe. Compared to a few months ago, is something changed? And what are the drivers that led you to a stable market share year-over-year in a growing market? Second question is about the mix. Do you expect a positive impact from new launches? And third one is on the international growth. I read the press release and you said to continue to pursue international growth. Do you have something more to share maybe relating to South America or other international growth projects?

Raffaele is speaking, concerning your last question about Latin America, yes, we can confirm that Latin America remains a key strategic focus for the group, and we continue to see strong untapped potential and opportunities across those growing markets. So we are actively evaluating several initiatives, and we hope to provide a more detailed update in the near future.

So about the price environment, we do not change anything till now in our view, as I already said before, we do not have in our view to change something. We have to maintain this level of pricing. We do not want to run in a cart where the only thing in mind is the reduction of pricing just like the Chinese products and the Chinese competitors are working in. This is not our product. This is not our market. We are working on a different level, as you well understand, on the basis of our brand and our product. So with Vespa, with [indiscernible], with [indiscernible], we do not want to work in a different way just what we have done until today.

And on mix, do you expect a positive impact from new launches?

Yes. Yes, because as I have already said, the new launches are made with Vespa. And with the new SRGT400, that is a product that we do not have until now. And it will cover a new part of the market that is a very interest segment. So we believe and we see in our forecast that these launches will have good results in our sales and margin.

[Operator Instructions] Mr. Lupotto There are no more questions registered at this time.

So thank you. So at this point, I think that the call is over. And as usual, if you have other questions, you can contact me later. Thank you very much for attending the call.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Piaggio Full Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Raffaele Lupotto, Investor Relations of Piaggio. Please go ahead, sir.

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Piaggio Group Full Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining us today are Matteo Colaninno, Chairman of Board of Directors of Piaggio Group; and Alessandra Simonotto, Group Chief Financial Officer. The slides supporting today's presentation are available on the Piaggio Group website.

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during today's call, we may make forward-looking statements based on Piaggio's current expectations and projections about future events. By their nature, these statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. These factors are discussed in the safe harbor statement on Page 2 of today's presentation.

With that, I would like to hand the call over to our Chairman, Matteo Colaninno, for his opening remarks.

Thank you. Good evening to everybody. Welcome. Just a few words because I would like to underline that we are in the middle of a historical phase of constant uncertainty where the world order based on shared and multilateral use is now in crisis, as we know.

As far as the Piaggio Group is concerned, internationalization and diversification of our market, the power and the strength of our brands are key elements of Piaggio's resilience. In this context, despite the reduction in revenues, in terms of ratio, once again, Piaggio Group achieved healthy margins and profitability of the last few years, thanks to efficient management of its operation.

As you can see, we came as far as gross margin is concerned. In terms of ratio, it came from 28.3% of [ 2020 years ] to 27.7%, 26.6% to 2022, 28.5% in 2023, 29.2% to 2024 and the best ever is this year, actual year with 30.5% of gross margin. As far as EBITDA margin is concerned, we came from 40.2% of 2020 through 14.4%, 14.3%, 16.4% year 2023, 16.9% in 2024 and actual 2025, 16.7% is the second best-ever EBITDA margin. So today, we can confirm investment in new models, technologies, while maintaining focus on process and product profitability.

The past year 2025 showed the introduction of new models across all the group brands. Let me say, we have fantastic brands. As you know, Vespa, I can say, it's the best scooter of the world, continue to evolve. We have a new power engine 310 single cylinder engine. Aprilia, we see a triumphant opening of the 2026 MotoGP season and as you know, last Sunday, we have won the Grand Prix with Marco Bezzecchi in Thailand and 4 Aprilia in the first 5 position. That means that we had continuously, on-air by sport television throughout the world, focused on the brands Aprilia, Moto Guzzi, Piaggio, Piaggio Commercial. So we have a fantastic brand.

So the floor -- to give the floor to our CFO, I would like to stress again, innovation investments, competitiveness, sustainability remain the strategic compass of the Piaggio Group's development.

Okay. Thank you very much. So we can start now the Q&A session. Okay. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Intesa Sanpaulo, Monica Bosio.

Thank you for taking my questions, I have four. Do you prefer I ask all at once or one at a time?

Altogether, we try to remember what...

So my first question is on demand trends in Europe. The registration data show encouraging signs in Italy and Spain and also strong growth in Germany. So can you comment on the overall market conditions in February? And more importantly, do you see this rebound is mostly due to a favorable comparison base? Or do you see this rebound as an effective growth of the market? So this is the first question.

The second is on India, according to the CM data, both industry volumes and your performance were strong in January. Is this positive momentum continued in February?

And the third question is on the cash flow. The net debt increased materially for the third consecutive year. Should we expect a material improvement in free cash flow generation in 2026? And if yes, if you can elaborate more on this.

Okay, Monica. So I'll take the first two questions. So concerning Europe, you're right, Several countries have posted very positive demand trends. So overall, according to our data, the market grew around 9% in January and even more in the main countries in February, probably in the region of 13% with positive results spread across, I would say, almost 4 countries. Clearly, there is a favorable base effect.

But I would like to highlight some of those countries not just above 2025 level by demand already at 2024 level. So there is an easy comparison base, but the trend is positive. Be careful because January and February are not super relevant in terms of market trend in terms of total volumes sold.

With that said, moving to India, in this case, yes, I can confirm that market trend and Piaggio volumes that are public are very positive. So we end up in -- according to CM data in January with a strong growth in like commercial vehicle, where we gain also market share. And this morning, FADA released the date for the month of February and Piaggio in light commercial vehicles grew in the region of 33%. So [indiscernible] market trends and gain again around 2.5 percentage points of market share.

At the same time, also volumes in 2-wheeler are very, very positive -- were positive in January, where we grew around 15% and also positive in February, according to FADA because we grew around 22%, 23%. So overall, the situation in India is very, very positive.

And then I leave the floor to Alessandra.

About the cash flow, Monica, we can say that the first thing is that in 2025, we have another assumption for EUR 40 million, but it is lower than the EUR 100 million that we had in 2024. In this EUR 30 million, you have to consider that we have paid more or less of EUR 18 million for the new investment in Mandello del Lario, so the -- for the new [indiscernible] and for all the new investment that we did there. And this is so -- a peak with a specific investment that we will not have during the next year during 2026 and 2027. So this will not affect, again, our cash flow in the next future.

On top of that, so if you have seen our balance sheet, and the analysis we have put in our slide for the net financial position, you can see there that both the inventories and the trade supplier are lower than last year. The inventories go down for EUR 50 million and the payables are lowering of EUR 95 million. So in any case, this lowering of these figures is something that has affected [indiscernible] the net financial position in 2025, but that helped us to get a better result in 2026.

Okay. And if I can, can you share with us an indication of the net debt the company is targeting for 2026?

You know that we have already published the consensus for 2026. So I can say that the consensus is more or less the target we have.

Next question is from Emanuele Gallazzi, Equita.

I would say three questions from my side. The first one, starting from, let's say, the guidance or the indication of 2026, you are confirming the indication or the consensus for net financial position. But basically, if we look at the revenues and the EBITDA, the consensus is pointing to revenues up mid-single digit and EBITDA up high single digit. I don't know if you can provide a comment on these and how should we think about the first quarter? In other words, do you expect a strong start of the year, so a strong first quarter?

The second one is on Europe. Thank you for the indication about January and February. I would like, by the way, to know which kind of, let's say, strategic initiatives are you implementing to recover market share specifically on the scooter if it is a matter of new product or a change in strategy on the pricing side.

And the last one is, if you can provide an indication or an idea about the factoring level in 2025. Thank you.

So about 2026, we believe that the margins that we are indicating in the consensus is the ones that we will work with for all this year and also for the first quarter. So there is no differences between what we have published and what we are expecting now in this momentum.

About the factoring, if I remember well, the amount is more or less EUR 116 million while at December 2024, we were at EUR 126 million.

And there was another question about the marketing initiative and so far, if I remember well. Well, I believe that you are seeing on newspaper, TV, all the social media we have, what we are doing both for Vespa, for Aprilia and so far. The initiative in Europe are going on the market and on the field in this week or in the next week. And so you will see what we are doing about it in the next days.

About the price, I can confirm that the policy of the group, just like Mr. Michele Colaninno, our CEO, has confirmed in all the other conference call we had during 2025, we will not -- we will be not a price war. So we will not change our philosophy about price.

Mr. Lupotto, there are no more questions registered at this time.

So if there are no more questions, we can close the call now.

Apologies, there is one more person. Davide Zappa from [ DZ ]

One question from my side. Can you elaborate or give us a little bit of color on the dividend?

Excuse me, I do not know if I have already catch up your question. But as you can see, we defined together -- the Board of Directors has defined together to propose to the shareholders' meeting not to distribute another quarter of the dividend. So we will distribute only the accounts that we have already paid in September, nothing more.

Mr. Lupotto. There are no questions registered at this time.

Okay. So if there are no more questions, we can close the call now. So the call is over. If you need more info, as usual, you can call me later, okay? Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Piaggio 9-Month 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Raffaele Lupotto, Investor Relations of Piaggio. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you very much. Hello, everyone, and welcome to this conference call. The conference call will be hosted by Michele Colaninno, Piaggio Group Chief Executive Officer; and Alessandra Simonotto, Piaggio Group Chief Financial Officer. Today, we are also pleased to have with us Matteo Colaninno, Piaggio Group Executive Chairman.

You can access the slides supporting today's conference call and presentation on the Piaggio Group website. As you would expect, before we begin, I would like to remind you that during today's call, we may make forward-looking statements, which are based on Piaggio's current expectations and projections about future events.

By their nature, such statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed. These factors are discussed in the safe harbor statement on Page 2 of today's presentation.

I would also like to remind you that the members of the press have been invited to participate in this conference call in a listen-only mode.

With that, I will now hand over the call to our CEO, Michele Colaninno.

Thank you, Raffaele. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining our call. I would like just to introduce the call with some aspects regarding the 9 months of Piaggio Group 2025. Well, first of all, it's easy to see and note to everybody that we have some declining markets in U.S., Europe and Asia, and this is a fact. And it's also well known that we have external problems around the business that are affecting the worldwide situation. We have wars. We have tariffs in U.S. We have exchange rates, increase in raw material costs. And last but not least, the beginning of our Green Deal electric quarter in Europe since July 2025.

2025 has been characterized in Europe by the change of regulations, as you know, from Euro 5 to Euro 5+ that has determined some declining for us in the market. Never say that the entire market in Europe has declined since the beginning of the year. We are very satisfied with some products. We are not satisfied with other products. But what I have to say is that our strategy not to reduce price points for our 4 brands is confirmed and it will be confirmed in the future.

I also considering that Asian brands are entering the markets around the world with cheap price, sometimes consequence of not so fair competition from the Chinese, especially entering into Europe in the also 4-wheel but also 2-wheel vehicles with low prices. We will not go into the price war.

The second aspect that is very, very important to me is that in the 9 months of 2025, if we consider that we lost EUR 153 million in revenues, we have been able to achieve 2 relevant targets. First of all, is the 30.4% gross margin percentage on revenues, the best ever number that we ever achieved. And the second one is that if you consider the first 9 months of 2024, with EUR 153 million more in revenues, we had a cash absorption of EUR 27 million in the 9 months of last year, while this year, we generated EUR 6 million of cash. That means that the company is very well managed from a productivity point of view all around the world.

As you can see from our slides, we have continuously invested in our factories and products up to more than EUR 100 million this year. And obviously, as a consequence of the investment done in the past, we have an increase in our amortization cost given that the percentage of amortization is increasing because of declining revenues, but amortization is just a consequence of investments.

If we go market by market, I told you about U.S. and Europe that are mainly 2-wheel vehicles for us moving to India. The market is slightly growing in 3-wheel vehicles. It is growing in cheap products and 2-wheel vehicles, and we are fairly satisfied about our sales in 3-wheel markets, considering once again, I will never stop telling you that electric vehicles in India are still losing money. We have the technology, we have the products, we have the dealers, but it's not the moment to push too much on electric mobility on 3-wheeled vehicle given that the cost is not declining as someone, not Piaggio Group was forecasting.

On the internal combustion engines, we are happy with our 3-wheel cargo business in India. As you know, the passenger business is in downtown is managed by brokers mainly, and we are starting to have a slightly -- very slightly positive news about 3-wheel passenger business downtown in the Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore. India is growing. So it's a place where we will invest with confidence that the country continues to grow at a stable pace. So we know that it's not a country where you have a peak of industrialization for the time being. But every year, they grow and they will continue to grow, I think, in a stable way. So India is interesting for the Piaggio Group and it remain interesting for the next years.

Moving to China. China is a big question mark. You know that the savings from households have touched a peak for the last 22 years, rising to 39%. So Chinese people are saving money. They are not spending their money in consumer business. And that's why not only the 2-wheeled vehicle market has been affected, but all the consumer business has been affected in China. And we are in the middle of the real estate crisis over there. It will take years to be fixed.

So China, even if it is a fantastic country and a big market for every business has to be managed with the proper way, not thinking of a hockey stick for the next 5 years. They will come back for sure. They are giant and the market is very interesting for us. It's known that there's a fight between China and U.S., and this is affecting also the exchange rate linked to the dollars. That's why I think -- that's my view for the future. It's better not to have too much positivity in all the countries linked to the Chinese-U.S. war. I'm especially thinking about South America, but it's an argument I will tell you later.

So given a short consideration of those 9 months, I cannot say I'm not satisfied because of the gross margin we have achieved because we generated a slight amount of cash instead of burning it, and because we continue to invest for the long-term period on our products. Obviously, it is difficult to predict what happens tomorrow morning. We are analyzing every aspect for the 2026 projections, especially on the cost side because we have to analyze whether to protect ourselves, first of all, on costs and then speak about revenues.

We are building up our budget strategy, and we are foreseeing some slightly recovery in Asia. So we are not so negative for the future.

India, I told you, is a place that I trust. It's not an easy place to be where Piaggio is well known. We will enter the segment of 2-wheel vehicles that we never touched next year and end of next year with products that can compete with the biggest part of the market that is a low street price market.

As you know, Piaggio is concentrated on the premium market, but we have the possibility now to achieve costs that are interesting for us in India also mass market. It is not such a big investment, but to invest money in India, I think it's more interesting than investing in other countries nowadays.

That's what I have to say, Raffaele commenting slightly the numbers. I repeat once again, we are investing. We are investing in new facilities in Mandello for the Moto Guzzi brand. We will inaugurate next year. We have invested a lot renewing all the processes for safety of people in our factories, also to be able to enhance every day, if it is possible, people's job place.

You know that we are continuing to develop our robotic division in Boston, where we are developing the brain of our robots for delivery and the full autonomous vehicles will be ready next year. It is an interesting market. For now, the sales are not interesting for the Piaggio Group because we are investing with people, nothing else to develop the software and the brain of the robots.

Robotics will be the biggest part of our world tomorrow. There will be a huge increase in technology where software will be more prominent than steel. We will be able to do both of them. As you know, we are also investing on the electromobility in parallel to the thermic one because I think and I expect that the technology of the batteries that is the driver of the electromobility will be interesting in the next 10 to 15 years, given that the autonomy will grow and the recharge time will be lower. Until that, thermic will be electric, especially in Europe and U.S.

But we will be ready in Italy, where we are investing in the head and in the heart of the vehicle. So we will not invest in batteries. We will not invest in cables. Those are also -- those are all from the shelves purchasing material and components. We will invest in software and in the electric engine produced in Italy for Europe, obviously, in the U.S., then we will see in Asia. We have a lot of plants, and we can do whatever we want without having the necessity to build new walls.

We have the capacity in Vietnam, Indonesia and China. We have the capacity in India, we have the capacity in installed capacity. It's everything is installed capacity in Europe.

Last but not least, because I think and we think that Asia will go back -- it takes time, but it will go back to positive time. We opened a new direct presence in the Philippines. The Philippines, we estimate could be the new Jakarta, especially the big town of Manila. And that's why it's intelligent to have a direct presence there instead of having importers or not controlling the dealer distribution network.

From the beginning, it would be just distribution of our vehicles, then we never know. We can estimate to have a local production facility, but it's not forecasted for the next 2 to 3 years. We have enough in Asia to fulfill the needs of Philippines and all the surrounding areas. That's it.

I think it's just a brief comment on the numbers. And I have to say that, okay, we lost revenues. It happens the markets go down. We also lost some 1% market share here and there, but that's because we do not want to enter into price war. We want to stay with high-margin products, stay with the high-margin vehicles around the world and not to think of being able to go into the marginal net result that needs millions and millions of vehicles.

It's not our job for the time being. It's not our job for the next 2, 3, 5 years, whatever you want, but it's not our job. And so it's better to have high price, it's not so high. The right price to have high margins. That's what we want to do, maintaining or trying to maintain more than 30% on the gross margin and more than -- and roughly 17% on the EBITDA. I think that's our target, and we work for it.

Once again, productivity is a fact. We manage transportation costs that were so high in the past. We now see overcapacity around the world and bigger fleets from ships coming from Asia and India. So we can think about at least a stabilization of the transportation cost, but also slightly reduction for the future. Obviously, it doesn't belong just to the Piaggio Group, but bigger fleets and lower and bigger capacity with low numbers of items to be transported means that the price could go down.

Another aspect is very relevant, I was saying before and then finish is South America. South America is a big market for 2-wheeled vehicles. We are not there. We have importers. For the time being, I'm still convinced that South America is the next place to be. But given the situation between the U.S. administration around the world, I estimate that Brazil and Mexico that are very linked to the dollar could have some impact from the situation. So it's better to wait and see what happens between the actual U.S. administration and Brazil and Mexico.

I'm thinking about tariffs. I'm thinking about the exchange rate between U.S. dollar. So it's an interesting country, but it's becoming a little bit risky. We have put on hold Brazil. We have not put on hold the other countries of South America.

So Brazil, just because of our relation with the United States, that is going to be difficult, I think, in the future. It doesn't mean that we're not able. We are able, but it's better to analyze deeply what can happen on the exchange rate with Brazil and on the market. So Colombia, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, all the South American countries apart, Brazil, that I repeat is very interesting as a business it could be risky with the financial exchange rates risk with the U.S. dollar. So that's a fact.

The U.S. administration is targeting South America and who knows what happens. So that's what happens on geopolitical situation up to now, and it is quite unpredictable. Thank you, Raffaele. I think...

Thank you very much. So we are ready to start the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions]

The first question is from Monica Bosio of Intesa Sanpaolo.

I have three. The first is on Europe. I fully understand that the company is preserving values over volumes, the company lost market shares and the trend in volumes underperformed the market. So for the year-end, I would -- my estimates point to volumes below 200,000 units. So I'm just wondering if you see my estimates a fair assumption. And more in general, if you can elaborate on the key factors behind Piaggio underperformance. I understand the value over volume strategy, but could this be due also to a shift in customer behaviors or changes in the dealer network? That's the first question.

The second one is on India. Regarding the light commercial vehicles, volumes have declined despite an overall market growth. So could you share your expectation for the fourth quarter of the year that should be stronger? And what are the strategy the company is implementing to address the increasing trend in India from the fourth quarter?

And very last is on the tariff impact. It was EUR 3 million. So if you can share with us the full year impact. And you also mentioned some cost savings from transportation. Should we expect that this could be somewhat relevant in 2026?

Thank you, Mrs. Bosio for your questions. Well, starting from Western countries, I think that you were referring to 195,000 or around 200,000, putting together Europe and U.S. It is true that we have lost here and there some 0 point market share, but this is also true that we gained market shares.

So with the Aprilia brand, we are happy. With the Moto Guzzi brand, we have lost some market share. With the Piaggio brand, we have lost, especially in Italy on the high-wheel scooters, but 50% of this is because of Euro 5, Euro 5+ Piaggio pledge in the year. The other are people that decided to buy Chinese products. So lower price, not interesting for us. I don't want to follow 50% discount just to sell one vehicle that we lose money.

So the strategy is clear. We obviously fine-tune the commercial opportunities every month, so to attract new customers and to be attractive for them. But given that the market has gone down in all Europe, the market share that we have lost is Italy, as I told you, Germany, we did not lost. Spain, we lost because of Chinese. U.K., we are happy with Aprilia brand. Greece, we are happy. So it happens that you decide to not to follow the price war.

Obviously, we have to do something, but do something for Piaggio Group is do new products. And as you have seen at the fair in Milan of this week, we've just launched the new GT 400 from Aprilia that enters for the first time in the biggest market of scooters. So we did have one. We had the 125. We were not present in the high displacement of the 400 cc. Now we're there. And it's a market that is growing the most. So I am positive for next year about this market for Aprilia brand scooters.

If you think -- and if you ask me if there's some change in the consumer behaviors, I would say no when you have a consumer that appreciate your work on the brand. If you have a consumer that is just searching for discounts, yes, it is changing. But if you look at some brands that were very powerful in the past with high discounts on the market, now they have disappeared because the customer has realized that he saved some money in purchasing, but then when happens something and the mechanical problem happens, there's no distributions, there's no spare parts and there's no services. And this is one of the part of the brand equity that we want to sustain.

And here, it comes to the last point, dealer's partnership. We are happy with our dealer's distribution network. They are not stressed. We can manage. I mean, we don't have any particular issue. Obviously, they are entrepreneurs and they do the business. So we debate every month. But we will have a positive -- we are having a positive and frank collaboration with our partners.

India, well, it is true that the 3-wheel market has grown, but it has grown where we are not. It has grown in electric, and we are there, but we lose money on electric vehicles. And we don't want to lose more pushing for customers. It is growing on passengers, CNG vehicles in -- especially in the biggest area of India. So Kolkata, Bangalore, Mumbai and Delhi just because they opened some permissions and the brokers that we have are not so powerful for this kind of market in these cities. We are reinforcing ourselves so to increase in that market.

But given that the rural area is the one that the Central Bank of India declared is growing the most and the employment rate of the rural areas are growing far way faster than the urban cities. And given that the agriculture business is going very well because of a very positive monsoon period this year in India.If all those 3 are true, we are strong enough and we will be strong enough in the rural area to fulfill the needs. So if there will be more money in the rural areas, we will be -- will be in a good position.

Tariffs, yes, we have the tariffs, everybody knows, like every business has. We have managed. Obviously, we didn't -- we couldn't increase the price list, put in all the tariffs and all the depreciation of the U.S. dollars against the euros for the customers. We managed even if we have -- let me say, in the last quarter, roughly another EUR 1.4 million of tariffs. So it is roughly with the kind of volume, it's roughly EUR 500,000 per month.

But U.S. is another interesting market for us, especially in the Bike segment. We are tiny, and we can grow. The growth in U.S., and this is what I tell to my colleagues over there is mainly the consequence of dealer's distribution network expansion. So we have to work to expand our dealer distribution network in U.S. Because what we have, we are happy, people are happy, they make money. But if we look at the competition, I would say we have to add another 100 dealers in U.S. in the next 2 to 3 years.

When we will reach 100 dealers more, we will be happy because the penetration per dealer is good. So if we -- if you want, it's a normal calculation. If you open shops, you increase your real revenues. But what is more relevant is that the product line that we launched in the medium class with the previous especially bike, and we will have other launches in the future, are doing good job in U.S., especially the 457 that has been just launched and the 660. So U.S. is interesting given that we are small, the market is big, and we have to open new shops.

I hope you are satisfied.

Yes.

Next question is from Emanuele Gallazzi of Equita.

From my side, 3 questions. The first one is, let's say, a follow-up on Europe. It's very, very clear that you don't want to enter in a price war. But do you have the feeling that the competitive environment is becoming more and more challenging with new Asian players entering or planning to enter in Europe.

The second one is on the APAC market. It is the third quarter in a row with volume around 25,000. Do you think the region has now stabilized around this level? And how do you basically see the region evolving in the fourth quarter and in 2026?

And the last one is on the gross margin. It has been good above 30% since the beginning of the year. I would like to understand your view on this. Do you basically see room for further improvement on the gross margin side?

Okay. Sorry, the telephone was not working for us. Thank you for your question. A follow-up on Europe. Yes, competition is challenging like it has ever been and it will be in the future, but it is challenging on the low price. So if you have Asian brands that are entering Europe, first of all, we will see if and when they will be able to open their distribution network, one of them is doing this, but it's just one of them. I fairly trust in distribution network because it's the service that you can give to your customer. I don't think that the competition is 100% fair from entering Europe from some Chinese brands, and this is on the table of everybody.

If there's no fair competition, someone will take actions against no fair competition has done in other businesses. I don't want to say we are open and files to see it. But for sure, they are selling below their cost. So I think that their companies will not be able to continue for a long period like that even because, as I said before, China need exports. The internal market cannot sustain the big factories they have built in their land. And to sustain export, they have to do big discounts on products to be attractive also for European customers.

Our 4 brands, and I think we are doing a very good job on brand equity, I don't think will be affected just because you find $200 less for 2-wheeled vehicles. If this is the case, it's not a problem of Piaggio, it is a problem of Europe. But I don't think this will be the case.

For Asia Pacific market, yes, it's 25,000 per month -- per quarter. I think that it's a positive news that market has been stabilizing over there because, as you know, I was afraid that the Chinese situation could affect also surrounding countries. It happened because we know Thailand has suffered. It happened because we know Vietnam has suffered. Now it's stable. And I can say that for the end of the year, this 25 plus can be confirmed. It's not 30, it's a 25 plus. It means that the recovery is starting in Asia. And given the high margin we have over there, we are very happy if the market from 25 goes up.

30.4% gross margin, I think it's a fantastic result. it will not be easy to increase. Obviously, we do our best to increase. But I would say, if we will maintain, I would be very happy because a lot of uncertainty around the world is there, exchange rates, raw material and logistic situation has not recovered from the words around the Red Sea or Ukraine. So this is what has affected the transportation time and costs until they are there, you can see some cost saving due to overcapacity of shipping companies, but not recover from what is working capital.

So we do not want to take the risk to say that working capital will have a benefit from shortened time of transportation. So let's keep as it is. Then if we are able to have some discount from shipping company, obviously, we will beat also for $1 less.

The next question is from Niccolo Storer of Kepler Cheuvreux.

At the beginning of the call, you talked about increases in raw materials. Can you elaborate a bit on that and on, let's say, what expect for 2026 and how to put all this, let's say, pieces of information together on the one hand, this increase in raw materials that you see. On the other, we discussed about freight costs, which might come down. On the other hand, the target to keep gross margin above 30%.

Well, I think that we demonstrated that we can manage raw material increase very good, achieving 30.4% margin. I don't know what happens in 2026. It's impossible to predict steel will go up or down. It depends on the situation of the markets around. We cannot manage raw materials, as you can imagine. And if anybody has a suggestion for us, I would take it very, very friendly. But I think that we just follow what happens. We do our job in protecting ourselves if we can. So not going into speculation on raw materials.

But if the target is to confirm the 30.4%, it means that it's not easy. I repeat, it's not easy because perhaps you don't know and realize how tough it is to manage today the gross margin, but we have achieved the fantastic result of today. I know we will have our projection in the budget. We are still analyzing the market. And I don't know which is a reliable forecast to tell you.

The next question is from Gianluca Bertuzzo of Intermonte SIM.

I saw that you launched a new GT scooter. If I'm not wrong, you were not present in that market segment. Can you elaborate around the strategy for the scooter and the expectation you have also in terms of timetable for the scooter to be on the market, volumes, et cetera?

Second one is about South America. You mentioned in the presentation that you plan to go there, but not in Brazil because of the geopolitical situation. What is the timetable for this project? I mean, it is something that will start already in 2026? It's more a medium- to long-term ambition? Any thoughts will be helpful.

And last question is about the net debt for the end of the year, where you see it being stable compared to the 9 months? Or do you expect to go up or down?

Well, thank you for your question. Very interesting, and I appreciate your interest on -- interest on the Aprilia brand. Yes, we will not there. We were not there, and it's now the biggest market in Europe. We are there with the GT 400. And it's a fantastic product. I tested it. It's branded with the Aprilia that has a sporty brand, as you know, and that's a consequence from the MotoGP race, where we are very satisfied until now.

I think it will boost the sales since the beginning of the year, let's say, the first 2 months when it will be ready in the dealerships. And I think that the appreciation from the customer will be there. So we are positive on that market, and we are positive on the GT Scooter 400.

Yes, we were not there, and now we are there. For South America, we will continue to have our importers. So we are there, and we will remain with our partners. When I speak about South America, I think about something more than having just a local partner for distribution, just to be able to mitigate the import duties in that country. As you know, that CBU has a high end of import duties over there. So it could be interesting to have some localization of a few products in the next, let's say, 12 to 15 months.

Brazil was in our target because it's the biggest market. But I prefer to see what happens on U.S. Brazil relation before putting money in the country. It is a difficult country because of the exchange rate and inflation situation, but it could also be worsening in the next 6 to 8 months if you look at what's happening between U.S. and Venezuela.

So it's better not to risk today and wait and see. It's just on hold on Brazil. The other countries, they are interesting, then they have not too many risks with the United States administration and the dollar. So there are interesting opportunities. I'm not saying we will sell hundreds thousands of vehicles. Obviously, I want to clarify, but it's an add-on that can be interesting for us.

For the debt, yes, what I can say is that we foresee a stable debt by the end of the year. We will try to do slightly better, some medium more, but stay on the safe part of the metal.

[Operator Instructions]

The next question is from Michele Baldelli of BNP Paribas.

Just a quick question on the strategy for the CapEx. What do you think is the, let's say, sustainable level that could be achieved in the coming years in terms of absolute number or as a percentage of sales as you prefer?

Well, given that the CapEx as a consequence, that means amortization, we have to be very careful for the next years, given that I think that, let's say, from EUR 140 million could be a number to have new products and to finish the project of Mandello that will be September 2026. After Mandello, we do not have any investments in production facilities. So it will be just products and processes, let's say, like this. We are investing in -- for better processes in our factories. But I would say, if you ask me a number, EUR 140 million, around EUR 140 million, EUR 145 million could be the number. But what I take care of more is amortization because it's not a question of investing money. It's a question on having a positive return.

And business plan of products, given that we had an estimation of markets that was slightly different, we estimated that the market was growing this year instead they have declining, okay? And that's why the amortization percentage on revenues has increased, but that's a consequence of putting money in new products.

We have our product range in the 2025, 2030 plan, that's the time that we analyze every time for our products. We are happy with the 4-wheel. We have the thermic one and the electric one. And so we will invest in 2-wheel and 3-wheel mobility. So scooters, bikes and India. India and surrounding countries, obviously, but the product line is 2 and is mainly 3-wheel. So that's the number I have in mind for next year.

[Operator Instructions]

Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Okay. So thank you very much. The conference call is over, and thank you for attending.

Thank you very much for your time, and I hope you are satisfied with our conference. Bye-bye.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.