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Kennzahlen
📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 1,79 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 399,30 Mio. $
Marktkapitalisierung = 1,79 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 423,43 Mio. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 1,97 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 399,30 Mio. $
Enterprise Value = 1,97 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 423,43 Mio. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Patria Investments Aktie Analyse
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Analystenmeinungen
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Patria Investments — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Patria First Quarter 2026 Earnings. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
I would like to hand over the conference to our first speaker today, Andre Medina, Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Patria's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Speaking today are our Chief Executive Officer, Alex Saigh; and our Chief Financial Officer, Raphael Denadai, who joined us for his first earnings call in this role.
This morning, we issued a press release and earnings presentation available on our Investor Relations website and on Form 6-K filed with the SEC. A replay will be available on our IR website.
As a reminder, today's call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, do not guarantee future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Please refer to the forward-looking statement disclaimer and risk factors in our most recent Form 20-F. Patria reports under IFRS and will reference certain non-IFRS measures. Reconciliations are in the earnings presentation.
With that, I'll hand it to Alex.
Thank you, Andre. Good morning, everyone. We started 2026 with solid operating performance as we continue to make progress expanding the breadth and reach of our platform. Our results this quarter reflect three consistent drivers: continued organic fundraising momentum, growth in fee-earning AUM and differentiated investment performance across our investment strategies.
Before I turn to the quarter, I want to formally welcome Raphael Denadai for his first earnings call as our CFO. Raphael has been a partner of this firm since 2024 and has been closely involved in our financial operations. He knows our business well, and I am confident he will bring a fresh perspective to the role.
Now turning to the quarter. Fundraising totaled $2.1 billion, keeping us firmly on track to achieve our full year guidance of $7 billion. We see upside potential as we work to beat our 2025 record fundraising of $7.7 billion, given the strength of investor demand we are seeing across the platform.
Fee-earning AUM reached $45.8 billion, up approximately 12% from fourth quarter 2025 and 31% year-over-year, reflecting year-over-year organic growth and the closing of Solis, our Brazilian CLO platform and three Brazilian REITs acquisitions, including RBR, Vectis and Genial, which together added approximately $4.9 billion of fee-earning AUM.
Pro forma for WP Global Partners, our co-investment platform in the U.S., which closed on April 1, fee-earning AUM stands at approximately $47.5 billion. The growth in fee earnings AUM drove fee-related earnings of approximately $51 million for the quarter, up 19% year-over-year, and we remain on a solid path to achieve our full year FRE guidance of $225 million to $245 million.
To put this progress into context, annualizing our first quarter FRE and adding the $10 million to $15 million of seasonal incentive fees that typically crystallize in the fourth quarter gets us to roughly $215 million to $220 million, even before considering the additional revenue growth and margin expansion versus first quarter 2026 that we expect to see over the balance of the year. Finally, distributable earnings per share of $0.27 rose 14% year-over-year. Raphael will take you through the financials in detail.
I also want to highlight that subsequent to the quarter, Patria reached an important milestone as we completed our first issuance of $350 million of fixed rate long-term debt. The notes were placed with a diversified group of institutional investors, primarily in the United States, and the offering was approximately 3x oversubscribed. This transaction extends our maturity profile, reduces our reliance on short-term credit facilities and provides additional balance sheet flexibility.
The notes include a mix of 5-, 7- and 10-year maturities with fixed coupons ranging from 6% to 6.6% resulting in an average duration of 8.5 years and an average cost of 6.4% per year. Proceeds are being used to retire our existing revolving credit facilities with the balance sheet available to fund future growth initiatives.
Pro forma for the offering, our net debt to FRE ratio stands at approximately 0.8x, consistent with our long-term target of 1x or less. Raphael will provide more detail on our capital management outlook in his remarks. Of course, the bedrock of our ability to grow the business is investment performance, and we continue to generate attractive returns across our platform. As shown in our earnings presentation, the vast majority of our funds have historically outperformed their relevant benchmark with over 80% of our current fee-earning AUM, excluding SMAs and third-party managed funds invested in funds that have exceeded their benchmarks since inception.
This reflects the consistency of our investment process across cycles and strategies and remains the foundation of our LP relationships and our capacity to raise capital. I invite you to take a look at the return pages of our earnings presentation. For example, our largest strategy, Credit LatAm high yield with over $5 billion in fee-earning AUM shown on the investment performance section of our earnings presentation, has generated 11% annualized net returns in U.S. dollars since inception 26 years ago, outperforming its benchmark by over 360 basis points. And as you can also see in the page, is outperforming its benchmark for all periods analyzed year-to-date, 1, 3 and 5 years.
Investment performance, of course, directly translates into revenue growth as over 70% of our fee-earning AUM, mainly in credit, real estate, GPMS and public equities grows as our funds deliver positive performance according to their underlying market value. As a reminder, our drawdown vehicles charge fees on a cost basis, so marks in underlying portfolios do not affect management fees.
Moving on, we are very pleased with our fundraising in the quarter, which reflected our continued momentum across multiple verticals. Our credit vertical continues to stand out as we raised over $925 million across various strategies that keep attracting strong demand from local investors and depending on the strategy, global investors as well.
Of note, Solis contributed with over $265 million in the quarter, quickly highlighting how this business is additive to our overall platform. The integration of Solis is progressing well and is expanding our capabilities in private structured credit, particularly in the Brazilian CLO market. This positions us to benefit from the continued development of non-bank financing in Brazil, which we view as a structural multiyear growth opportunity.
We're also seeing strong interest in our dollar-denominated private credit LatAm Fund II from international investors and expect this to be a meaningful contributor to fundraising throughout the year. Infrastructure continues to attract sustained demand from global institutional investors and raised over $545 million in the quarter, particularly notable as we are not currently raising a flagship fund. We are seeing growing interest in large-scale SMA and co-investment mandates. Many of these mandates are targeted to specific initiatives such as the data center project we announced in partnership with ByteDance that is now advancing through its construction phase, and we are in active conversations on additional transactions of comparable scale.
This represents the kind of fee-generating structured mandate we expect to see with greater regularity as our product offering continues to develop. In addition, we continue to expand the breadth of our infrastructure platform into new strategies such as infrastructure core.
In private equity, we raised $275 million through a co-investment opportunity and continue to develop a pipeline of additional co-investment and SMA transactions. We are also seeing growing traction in our local buyout Colombian fund and our high-growth reforest fund.
Our ability to raise capital for co-investments reflects continued LP confidence in our origination capabilities, even considering the DPI challenge facing the more mature vintages of our flagship private equity buyout funds, Fund V and especially Fund IV. The DPI profile of our buyout funds reflects a slower realization environment as well as company-specific challenges. And while lower interest rates would support improved exit activity, the new interest rate environment has not yet materialized.
To address the challenges of that part of our business, we have recently appointed the leader of our value creation team to focus primarily on divestments, while the existing leader of our private equity vertical will focus on investing our buyout Fund #7 and various SMAs and co-investment opportunities.
Meanwhile, buyout Fund #6 and buyout Fund #7 portfolio companies are performing well, having generated an average EBITDA growth of approximately 17% last year. Performance has also been strong for our growth equity and venture capital strategies, with flagship funds generating a net IRR in U.S. dollars of 13% and 17%, respectively.
Now with respect to GPMS, first quarter fundraising totaled around $265 million, and we anticipate that 2026 should be a good year for several reasons. First, we note that this quarter's fundraising includes a $139 million first close for our inaugural commingled co-investment vehicle, the Patria Co-investment Partnership Fund. This highlights our ability to develop new products on top of acquired platforms.
Second, we expect to complete the fundraise for our Secondaries Opportunity Fund V or SOF V in the coming months. We can share that SOF V has already received commitments in excess of its initial target of $500 million and that we believe the fund could reach close to $600 million by its final close, which would make it approximately 50% larger than its predecessor. This highlights our ability to enhance the commercial performance of existing products within acquired platforms.
And finally, we are particularly pleased to see that our European program is seeing increased interest from a broad range of institutional investors, including local institutional clients in Latin America as well as North American and Asian investors who are already part of Patria's global client base. This is an important development I want to highlight. The incremental demand from existing investors who have partnered with us in Latin America and are now expanding their engagement with us into new strategies and most notably into new regions.
Furthermore, the WP Global Partners acquisition, which closed on April 1st, further strengthens our position in the U.S. lower middle market, adding a local institutional presence and origination network in a segment where track record and relationships are the primary competitive differentiators.
Real estate fundraising outlook remains strong. Take two of our largest Brazilian REITs in logistics and urban retail, for example. They have over $160 million of capital already contracted, which should flow into fee-earning AUM in the coming quarters, highlighting what we believe to be one of our structural competitive advantages.
The scale of our listed vehicles allows us to execute on our asset exchange model through which property owners transfer illiquid assets in exchange for shares of our large liquid listed funds as a way to monetize their portfolios. This asset exchange program is generating an attractive fundraising pipeline that we believe is not only less dependent on the interest rate environment than traditional fundraising, but also potentially less costly to originate as well. The RBR acquisition further enhanced our scale and structural advantage as we expect real estate, which is currently over 90% in permanent capital vehicles to be a strong contributor to fundraising over the balance of the year.
Reflecting on the growth and fundraising that we are experiencing across our platform, it is clear to us that we have significantly diversified our firm's investment and distribution capabilities, both organically and inorganically. We believe we now have at least 10 investment strategies with flagship funds with the potential to raise more than $1 billion each per fund, up from just two flagship funds at the time of our IPO. All of our fundraising initiatives reinforce and support the high quality of our asset base as over 85% of our fee-earning AUM is in vehicles with no or limited redemptions, and our permanent capital base now stands at approximately $10.7 billion or roughly 23% of total fee-earning AUM.
In addition, pending fee-earning AUM, capital committed that would earn fees as deployed increased about 17% to approximately $3.3 billion in the quarter, providing additional visibility into future management fee revenues.
At our December 2024 Investor Day, we set a 3-year cumulative performance-related earnings, or PRE, target of $120 million to $140 million for the period from fourth quarter 2024 through year-end 2027, having generated approximately $62 million through the first quarter of 2026.
Infrastructure Fund III continues to support this progress with about $19 million of net accrued carry well positioned for monetization this year. As we approach the midterm of our guidance period and gain greater visibility into Private Equity Fund VI, which has $237 million of net accrued carry, we now expect PRE realization to take longer, making contributions more likely beyond 2027 rather than within our original time frame. Importantly, this is a timing issue, not a value one and private equity buyout Fund VI is well positioned to be a significant PRE contributor in 2028 and beyond.
Meanwhile, we are encouraged by the expansion of our PRE sources across growth, venture, real estate and credit, which together has about $13 million of growing net accrued carry, some of which could generate PRE in 2027. Taking it all together, we believe cumulative PRE for the fourth quarter 2024 through the fourth quarter 2027 period can reach $80 million to $100 million with upside potential if markets improve and divestment activity accelerates.
Now let me share a brief perspective on the operating macro environment. Having invested across Latin America through multiple cycles for nearly 40 years, we bring long-term standing perspective, deep local knowledge and resilience that few can match. We continue to believe the region's exposure to commodities, its evolving renewable energy mix and its significant infrastructure needs make it an area of sustained structural interest for global capital well beyond short-term market dynamics.
Given the recent geopolitical developments you are well aware of, we are seeing growing engagement from global investors with institutional allocators across Asia and Europe increasingly turning their attention to Latin America and engaging with us across a broader and more diversified set of strategies that has historically been the case. This reflects not just interest in the region, but confidence in our integrated platform, scale and execution capabilities. We are continuing to invest in our ability to meet this demand, and we believe we are uniquely positioned to capture these opportunities.
In summary, we are executing consistently across the business. Fundraising is on track. Our asset base is predominantly long duration and nonredeemable. Our investment performance is solid, and we remain confident in our ability to achieve our full year objectives.
With that, I will hand the call to Raphael. Thank you.
Thank you, Alex. Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be here for my first earnings call as CFO. I have been deeply involved with Patria since 2023, and I aim to bring to this role continued transparency, a focus on the quality of our earnings and over time, improvements in the clarity of our financial disclosures.
Now let me take you through the first quarter results. Total fee revenues for the first quarter was approximately $92.6 million, up 20% year-over-year from $77.3 million in first quarter 2025 and up 3% sequentially from fourth quarter 2025, excluding the incentive fees that typically crystallize in the fourth quarter.
The year-over-year growth reflects the full quarter contribution of Solis and the Brazilian REITs acquired through 2025, two months of RBR, organic fee AUM growth and the net FX and performance effect.
Our last 12-month management fee rate was approximately 87 basis points in the quarter, reflecting the full quarter impact of Solis in first quarter as well as stronger growth in credit, real estate, GPMS and various co-investments in SMAs over the recent quarters.
Independently of fluctuations in average fee rates and as evidenced by our margin outlook to be discussed in a few moments, the economics of these products remain very attractive given their often high incremental margin and the sticky and long duration structure of the mandate, which can include permanent capital vehicles.
Regarding expenses, total compensation and operating expenses for the quarter were approximately $42 million, up 14% sequentially from fourth quarter 2025. The increase reflects integration of recent acquisitions, planned investments and distribution and investment capabilities and the seasonal reset of compensation programs at the start of the year.
Fee-related earnings for the quarter were approximately $50.5 million, up 19% year-over-year, showing an FRE margin of 54.6%. The margin reflects the contribution of the acquisitions closed in the quarter, platform investments and seasonal compensation timing, all consistent with our prior guidance on quarterly phasing. We expect the margin to improve progressively through the year as management fee growth, integration work evolves and expense growth moderates. We remain comfortable with our long-term FRE margin guidance of 58% to 60%.
Overall, we are reaffirming full year 2026 FRE guidance of $225 million to $245 million or $1.42 to $1.54 per share. Approximately 15% to 16% growth from last year's $202.5 million. We are also maintaining our 2027 FRE target of $260 million to $290 million.
Total distributable earnings for the quarter were $42.4 million or $0.27 per share, up 14% year-over-year on a per share basis. Growth was driven primarily by FRE. Alex has updated you on our PRE expectations. So let me turn to stock-based compensation. Stock-based compensation in the quarter was $10.1 million.
Based on current programs, we expect full year 2026 and 2027 stock-based compensation to represent between 11% to 12% and 10% to 11% of total fee revenues, respectively. The expected nominal increase reflects an intentional expansion of equity ownership deeper into the organization and a higher proportion of total compensation delivered in equity for key employees.
When benchmarked against listed alternative manager peers, we believe our stock-based compensation profile is consistent with the group. Finally, we believe that over the long term, our stock-based compensation will moderate as a percent of the net revenues as our business scales.
Now a brief note on taxes. The first quarter effective rate was approximately 0.3%, reflecting our evolving business mix and consistent with our guidance. This is driven by country mix as we engage in acquisitions with higher tax burden, which increased the total tax expense.
Regarding the balance sheet, I want to make the opportunity to help you understand Patria's updated liquidity profile following the completion of our debt private placement, which, as Alex noted, extends our maturity profile, eliminates reliance on revolving credit facilities and provides fixed rate capital for future business development.
To facilitate this discussion, we have added a specific slide to reconciliations and disclosures section of our earnings presentation available on our website. Between proceeds from the debt offering and expected cash generation, we expect to have ample capacity to meet all of our obligations, pay out dividends, reinvest in the business and buy back shares while maintaining a conservatively structured balance sheet.
In this context, share count for the quarter was 159.1 million shares, inclusive of 893,000 shares repurchased directly in the market for $12.7 million and the initial implementation of a new total return swap or TRS of an additional 840,000 shares. It remains our goal to maintain the share count in the 158 million to 160 million range.
So to summarize, our financial picture is straightforward. We have a business generating growing, sticky cash flows from a highly diversified and predominantly long duration and no redeemable asset base. Our fundraising momentum continues and fee-related earnings are growing, giving us confidence that we are on track to meet our objectives. In addition, the balance sheet remains strong and positioned to support future growth initiatives.
We look forward to your questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Craig Siegenthaler from Bank of America.
2. Question Answer
So you have a big election coming up in Brazil. I was wondering if you could talk about what the outcomes could mean for the asset management industry in Brazil and Patria, even though I know Brazil has been a shrinking part of your overall business given your diversification?
Yes, of course. Well, as you know, it's pretty tied between the 2 runner-ups, right, the current President Lula and the son of Mr. Bolsonaro, the ex-President under the name of Flavio, right? And so it's very hard to say which way it's going to go. But the scenario of having a fourth mandate of Mr. Lula is more of the same. And I think what we can see will be, in our take here, an environment with higher inflation and therefore, higher interest rates, driven by a fiscal indiscipline that is currently kind of the trademark of the Mr. Lula's government.
So I think the main difference for the asset management industry, Craig, is a higher inflation, higher interest rate environment under Mr. Lula's government's fourth mandate and a lower inflation, lower interest rates under Mr. Bolsonaro's, Jair Bolsonaro's government. Even though I think in the first moment it's going to be hard for Mr. Bolsonaro to reduce the deficits from Monday to Tuesday, but the projections will show that he will work on that deficit. The yield curve will start showing a decline in interest rates during his fourth four-year mandate, therefore, I think the environment will be less benign versus Mr. Lula's is gonna be more, I think, with a higher interest rate environment.
So where do we -- does Patria then actually act on that, and where do we stand? Our, you know, credit business will continue to perform extremely well as it is right now. As you saw, fundraising over the last years and the last quarter, record fundraising for our credit products. We're expanding our credit portfolio, mainly in Brazil with the acquisition of Solis. I think that the non-bank financing in Brazil is a huge opportunity.
As I say in my earnings call here, I think it's a multi-year, very important opportunity for us. We want to place Patria the same way that we placed Patria in the REITs business in Brazil, the Real Estate Investment Trust. There we are the number one, the leader of a [ BRL 250 billion reais ] plus industry that is growing at a double digits. Same in credit. The non-bank financing in Brazil is expanding tremendously.
And 2025 was the first year that capital markets non-bank financing surpassed financing for corporations in Brazil. Banks, because of the regulation and Basel and et cetera, and restrictions are lending less. Capital markets was for the first year actually surpassed banks again in lending in Brazil. For individuals, the same thing is gonna happen.
The right structure to do this is through Solis, through our FIIs, which is the real estate investment trusts that focuses on real estate credit. The opportunity there, you know, the numbers there, Craig, are just immense. Positioning ourselves there to continue to expanding our credit business and our real estate business that as it relates to credit, we have a very large real estate credit business as well within our real estate investment trusts. And I think on the other side of the equation with Lula, for equities might continue to suffer given what the high interest rates environment, right.
Now with Mr. Bolsonaro, I think again, we're gonna see, you know, credit continue to be a major source of income for us because I think it will take some time for Mr. Bolsonaro to be able to reduce inflation, and therefore interest rates in Brazil. The yield curve already projecting a decrease. Other, you know, products that are more real estate dependent, like, you know, the brick-and-mortar real estate side of the business, not the credit side of the business, and equities will favor under Mr. Bolsonaro.
What we're trying to do is actually, you know, given our, you know, 40-year experience in doing business in Brazil, is actually having a broad spectrum of products. And, you know, betting a lot on the credit side, private credit, non-bank financing that actually can be, you know, the engine of our growth, followed by, you know, real estate. Of course, we don't have GPMS here, which is growing a lot outside LatAm for us, followed by infrastructure, which is, you know, inflation-hedged, with a higher inflation environment that also should benefit under Mr. Lula's government.
Mr. Lula, during his 3 terms, did promote once, one of the, you know, largest concession programs in the world, toll roads, water sanitation, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. We are benefiting a lot from that through our infrastructure division and vertical here. As it is inflation protected because, you know, most of the revenues are contracted and the revenues are, you know, adjusted by inflation. That's another product that we see favoring under Mr. Lula's government because of his willingness to do concessions and his, in our view, higher interest rate environment. I hope I answered your question there, Craig.
No, Alexandre, great. Very comprehensive. Just for my follow-up, Brazilian public equities have been very strong over the last 12-plus months. So I'm curious on how this impacted your realization outlook, which should make IPO exits easier. And I'm especially looking at some of your older vintage private equity funds like Fund IV and V.
Yeah. We are, yes, all true that you said. I think the, you know, the more liquid, listed securities, of course, looking into, you know, a change in geopolitics, you know, favoring Latin America, a lot of flows coming to the region. Independent of Mr. Lula's fiscal imbalance, we saw a huge flow coming into the region benefiting, of course, our stock exchange and other listed securities, appreciating the value of those assets.
Of course, you know, you see some of the, you know, the returns of some of our funds are just amazing. Last year, our public equities funds had returned from 40%-60% in US dollars and in reais, and then even more so in US dollars. And our credit funds that also have no listed securities. The market value of these securities went up with everything that you just said.
We are also seeing some that -- flow into the private markets. It takes a little longer. I think last year we saw listed securities being benefited from this flow first, of course, comes into that benefit kind of flows into the private side of the world. It takes some time for that to ripple down, that ripple down effect.
However, we are now exiting most of our companies in our Private Equity Fund IV, Private Equity Fund V, Infrastructure Fund II, Infrastructure Fund III, and using this momentum to exit. Even with the exits that we are actually under execution, we will not generate performance fees for Private Equity Fund IV in our view. Private Equity Fund V might generate performance fee, but Private Equity Fund IV will not.
Infrastructure Fund II will not generate performance fees, but Infrastructure Fund III, yes, and it's a great fund which has, you know, been paying performance fees over the last years, and we see that we will continue to pay performance fees in 2026. Yes, we are using this momentum to sell a lot of the companies in the funds and clean our portfolio, send money back to investors. Private Equity Fund IV, Craig, not enough for it to generate performance fees.
Our next question comes from the line of Lindsey Shema from Goldman Sachs.
Welcome Raphael. Look forward to working with you. Maybe just kind of following up on the private equity outlook and performance fees. I know last call you had mentioned that the not official accrued, but Private Equity Fund V performance fees were running around $40 million. Is that still the case? What kind of has changed since then to take it out of carry? I know it's very volatile, but maybe just kind of updates on the outlook specifically there.
Then more broadly, what do you really need to see? I know rates is a factor, and you mentioned you're starting to get some momentum from the inflows into Brazil, but I mean, you now have a person entirely, it seems like, in charge of focusing on divestment. Is the upside really just on rates? Is it maybe this momentum's a little bit better? Just kind of understanding the factors that led to revising down guidance and what could kind of, you know, be upside there.
Thank you. Thank you, Lindsey. I think as mentioned to Craig and to you all, I think the outlook for performance fees coming from Private Equity Fund IV is not positive. We do not expect performance fees coming from Private Equity Fund IV, even though we are selling companies from Private Equity Fund IV. It will, you know, generate DPI for investors, but not enough. Not enough, no. Not even close to enough. Okay.
For Private Equity Fund V, I think we conservatively value the companies at very conservative valuations in our view, in, you know, all of the companies of Private Equity Fund V. The upside there, Lindsey, is like if we can sell companies with a, you know, valuation higher than our current marks, then it will generate performance fees. Under this scenario, I prefer to be conservative and as of today, not have any expectations of performance fees coming from Private Equity Fund V as well.
Private Equity Fund IV, pretty sure about that. Private Equity Fund V, I'm being conservative about it, but I think that's the scenario. We're using a more conservative scenario in order not to generate expectations. There's an upside potential for Private Equity Fund V, but there's no upside for Private Equity Fund IV.
Private Equity Fund VI, you can see that, you know, no great performance fee there, over $230 million. Private Equity Fund VII is too early to say, but the companies in the portfolio is performing very well. In addition, our growth equity funds, as you see, are performing very well. We have a large asset in our growth equity fund, which is an online pet business that is, you know, a sizable investment that can generate sizable performance fees. We don't see it within the range of 2027. An upside could be 2027. That's why we reduced the expectations for the 2027 period.
I think there's sizable performance fees coming from that business, which is called Petlove. It's a market leader in Brazil. Patria Growth Equity Fund II, you know, the portfolio's shaping extremely well. Venture also, you know, portfolio's shaping extremely well. DPI is very high for our, you know, Venture Funds. You know, our Venture Fund II over 1x DPI. Our Venture Fund III already 0.3x DPI. We're after one that company, it will go to close to 1x DPI, 0.9x DPI for the Venture III. Venture IV is pretty new. Very, you know, good news coming from that side of the business. Plus performance fees that can come from other asset classes like real estate, like credit, et cetera.
But lastly, what I would like to emphasize, Lindsey, is like, you know, let's say that, you know, we do generate $80 million-$100 million of performance fees versus the $120 million, $140 million. The difference, you know, between one scenario and the other is around, you know, $40 million to $60 million. If we divide that by 3, you know, because it's a three-year period guidance. 40 divided by 3, around, whatever, $13 million, and 60 divided by 3, around $20 million. It will be an additional $13 million to $20 million that we'll add to our DE.
Given our, you know, projections that we're going to generate $225 million to $245 million of FRE this year, $260 million to $290 million of FRE next year, an additional $13 million to $20 million, of course, I prefer more $13 million to $20 million than less $13 million to $20 million. Percentage-wise, it's pretty small. It doesn't actually move tremendously the needle. Our performance fees, because, as you know, are becoming less relevant to our business and our results, we moved Patria into more NAV and market-oriented funds.
Listed funds where we charge fees on the market value of these funds, like REITs, like the public equities, like credit, et cetera. 70%, so the 7-0% of our fee-earning AUM come from funds that actually do charge fees on the market value of the assets, like credit, like public equities, like real estate, like GPMS. 30% are the drawdown nature funds that has the performance fees. That's already now in 2026, 2027.
Looking into 2030, by the end of the year, first week of December, we're gonna give out our 2030 vision. Even more so, this path continues for us to expand the business on the asset classes that I just mentioned, permanent capital vehicle, listed funds, whatever, that charge fees on the market value of the assets. The performance fees are gonna become even less relevant as we move into the future. That's not by chance. It's by strategy.
Of course, we wanted to guide the company because it becomes more predictable, more visible, as performance fees have this kind of volatility. Sometimes, you know, we are, you know, doing an M&A, and I joke that M&A stands not only for mergers and acquisitions, but it also stands for misery and anguish. You're there signing a deal, someone, you know, doesn't wanna sign the deal, whatever, it goes to the next quarter. We're moving the business to be allocated to asset classes and fund strategies that give us a lot more predictability. That's what the bond investors actually saw.
I think the rating agency, the investors that came into our bond, of course, they have a look into the credit quality. They want to, you know, of course, get their debt paid. They don't want much upside on that sense. They want predictability. Even though, you know, the performance fees can add that extra $15 million-$20 million in my example here, you know, they saw this very predictable business of Patria. That's why we managed to raise a, you know, seven-year, ten-year notes with these kind of terms that we just went over here.
I hope I answered your question, Lindsey.
Yes, that was great. I definitely heard on the strategy moving more towards market valued assets. And then I do have one more question, maybe a little bit more specific on this year. On the expense growth in the quarter, if you could just break down maybe by magnitude, how much was acquisition related, how much was investment, how much was comp resetting? How much was FX? Just trying to get a sense of what each impact was and how much margin can expand throughout the year? Could you reach your longer-term FRE margin target this year? Or is that more of a topic for 2027?
Yes. I'll go for the short answer, and then I'll pass on to Raphael. Yes, we can reach the 58%, 60% FRE margin for this year. And I'll pass on to Raphael to give you this breakdown.
Yes, I would say -- hello, Lindsay. First, thank you for your question. We have three temporary factors that explain the first quarter margin.
The first one is integration costs from the Solis and RBR closings. The second one is the seasonal compensation reset at the start of the year. The third one is the platform investment that were front-loaded. Okay. The path, as Alexandre said, to 58%-60% margin is supported by simple math.
So moving the margin from 54.6% to 58% on our $45.8 billion Fee-Earning AUM base generates approximately $50 million of additional FRE before any new fundraising contribution. On top of that, our $3.3 billion of Pending Fee-Earning AUM converts to fee-paying status through the year. We expect $10 million to $15 million of seasonal incentive fees in the fourth quarter. Annualizing first quarter FRE plus those incentive fees gets us to roughly [ $215 million ], and the margin expansion plus organic growth reaches the rest. We are reaffirming the 58%-60% range.
Just to give you some more perspective on the costs, we have, that's your question. We have an FX impact that is pretty much important in the first quarter of the year. We have to keep in mind that we also have a positive impact on revenues, okay? When we look, the expenses, separately, we can see this impact, but when we look it all together, it goes to the bridge that I just mentioned to you.
Perfect. And just confirming the $3.3 billion of pending fee AUM, is that all to be deployed this year or only part?
No, I would -- no. Of course, the plan is to deploy within the year because it's -- and if you do a ROA of 90 basis, which is our ROA, you can see where $25 million coming from here. But yes, within the next quarters. And I think our expectation and also investors' expectation and they want to see the money on the ground being deployed.
Our next question comes from the line of Guilherme Grespan from JPMorgan.
So my first question was actually answered was on the pending AUM. But the second one is just on the average management fee rate, Alex. I know that when you look at the consolidated view, there was a step down, I think, mostly related to mix. But whenever we try to do the per-segment here basis that you disclosed the management fee per segment, we saw a small step down on private equity and infra that there was no M&A. So I just want to confirm, sometimes those movements are average balance calculation that impacts the average management fee. But I just want to confirm there was no step down or any change to the fee schedule of PE and Infra.
No, Guilherme, thank you for your question, a great question, because it's, I think it's important for us to emphasize. The short answer, then I'll go through the explanation. No fee pressure, okay? Within private equity and infrastructure. What happens, when we raise a flagship fund, which is not the case of this year and this quarter, the flagship funds do actually post a higher fee rate. You know? Private Equity 1.17 and 20, 1 -- 1.75 for our management fees and 20% performance fees. Infrastructure, 1.5, 1.6 management fees and 15% performance fees, okay? The flagship funds, which we are not raising this year.
When we actually raise the SMAs which we mentioned. The SMA that was actually even used as an example in our earnings call, the data center SMA, with ByteDance or the toll road SMA that we did with PIF, the Saudi sovereign fund, and also with GIC, the Singaporean sovereign fund. Those SMAs are more on the 1 and 10 basis, 1% management fees and 10% performance fees. It is a way, so that's all.
As we raise these SMAs during 2026, and we are not raising a flagship fund, you see some of this margin movements or lower movements that you just mentioned for private equity and infrastructure. Private equity, we did raise an SMA. We did sign, not yet closed, a large healthcare deal in Colombia and in Chile. You probably, you probably know, recall that UnitedHealthcare owns three large assets in the region in South America, one in Brazil, Amil, that it sold last year. And then, UnitedHealthcare, which is facing now their issues of their own, decided to sell the Colombian asset and the Chilean asset. We did actually raise an SMA of over $500 million there with now 200 is already there in our first quarter. We will have another 200 to come in the second quarter for private equity to buy these 2 assets in Colombia and in Chile.
Again, now raising an SMA for private equity is 1 in 10, is not 1.75 and 20. Actually it's 1 in 15 in this case of private equity. During the year, you're gonna see this, the years that we are not raising flagship funds, but no fee pressure.
Needless to say, you know, some of the investors that do put money in the fund, in the main fund and are paying 1.75 and 20 in the case of private equity at 1.5%, 1.6% management fees and 15 in the case of infrastructure, they do require that we do give them opportunities to co-invest, where in the co-investment vehicles, they pay a fee of 1 in 10. It's a way of giving them a discount, Guilherme, right? It's not in the main fund because it would spoil the whole economics that other investors are now getting into the fund. They want most favored nations clause, whatever.
We don't reduce the funds that the fees for the main flagship funds. We do give them the opportunities to co-invest. In the co-investment vehicles, we have this lower fee combination. Which is now the way that the industry operates. It's not a 2025 or 2026 phenomenon. For the last 20 years, we've been doing this, and it's the same, the same mechanics. A very large investor gets into the fund, pays full fees, but then asks to co-invest and pay a lower fee in the co-investment vehicle. That is a 20-year phenomenon. It's not a 2025, 2026 phenomenon. We're not getting any fee pressure going back to the beginning of my answer here. Hope I answered your question.
Our next question comes from the line of Nicholas Vaysselier from BNP Paribas.
Hope you can hear me. I have two questions on my side. The first one would be a bit of a follow-up on the previous one. But I was wondering on the co-invest in infrastructure and private equity, do you manage to charge anything at all in terms of fees, or is it purely at zero? And I do understand that it's necessary for doing the business in that industry, but just wondering if there's any revenue impact?
And second question, your last acquisition this year in mid-market secondaries, developed mid-market secondaries. I was wondering if any other deal you might be doing in the near future would still be looking at developed market capacities. I know you've been talking about the U.S. quite a bit on recent calls. So I was wondering if this is going to be something you're going to focus on more in the near future?
Nicholas, thank you very much for your question, and thanks for participating on. We do charge fees on the co-investment vehicles. How does that work? I don't wanna, you know, bog you guys into much detail, but very big institutional investors, normally, they require that the first dollar that they invest that matches the dollar that they put in the fund is no fee, no carry.
Let me give you an example. If a very large investor decides to invest $300 million in one of our flagship funds, they require that the first $300 million of co-investments do not pay any fee and carry, the management fees and carry. In the end, it's a 50% discount. Of course, it's their option to do the co-investment. After that, Nicolas, we charge the 1 in 10 that I mentioned when I was answering Guilherme's question. 1 to 1, yes, for the large guys, no fee, no carry. After 1 to 1, we do charge, normally we charge 1 in 10. If it's an investor that is not an investor in the fund, he already goes into the 1 in 10. Okay? In the case of infrastructure.
In the case of private equity is 1 in 15. They pay a higher performance fee for the SMEs, for, you know, private equity. In private equity, it works the same. The first dollar for dollar, no fee, no carry. After that, they pay fee and carry. I'm generalizing, of course, there's no, if we go into the, you know, detail of some of the relationships, there might be a little twist here or there. In general terms, I think this is, I think gives you a good view of how it works. Again, it's not a Patria thing, it's not just for Patria, it's an industry thing. It's an industry kind of phenomenon, an industry characteristics of our industry, the 1 to 1, and over 1 to 1 people do pay fees for co-investments. Okay?
On the USA and the WP acquisition. The WP acquisition was -- let me start with a short answer. No, we do not intend to expand in the U.S. in a big way. Let me give you then some more detail. The WP acquisition was targeted to enhance our capabilities through the GPMS team. The GPMS does, as you know, private equity primaries, secondaries, and co-invest, and is mainly in Europe. Two-thirds of our portfolio is a, you know, European focused portfolio.
Our investors that ask us to have more of a global approach to, you know, private equity primaries, secondaries, and co-invest mid-market focus. That means, you know, having a larger U.S. presence and competence. The WP acquisition comes to fulfill and enhance and strengthen the part of the strategy of our GPMS business. So besides that, which is, you know, enhancing something that we have already purchased in Europe, which is a GPMS business from abrdn, we don't see any other short-term opportunities to get into the U.S.
Our focus is to, you know, LatAm and, you know, we're not really in big time in Mexico. We're growing in Colombia, as you know. U.K. is a main focus. U.K. is the second-largest alternative asset market in the world. I think the second technically is China, so U.S., China, and the U.K. For us, U.K. is, as it's harder for us to approach the Chinese market. The U.K. for us is the second-largest alternative market in the world. Very fragmented, contrary to the American market, which is, you know, went through a consolidation.
We actually can see ourselves through organic growth and acquisitions becoming one of the top 3 to 5 alternative managers in the U.K. and therefore in Europe, in credit, in GPMS, in real estate, in these asset classes. Our focus is to continue expanding where we already are in the U.K./Europe, continental Europe, LatAm, but not in the U.S. besides the GPMS that I just mentioned. I hope I answered your question, Nicholas.
I am showing no further questions at this time. This concludes our Q&A, and I would like to turn it back to Alex Saigh for closing remarks.
Well, thank you very much for your participation. Again, I think a great quarter for us. A strong performance, starting with performance of our funds, then, you know, rippling down to fundraising, great fundraising of $2.1 billion for the quarter. We know there's an upside there on our $7 billion guidance, and even, I think, beating the $7.7 billion record fundraising that we had in 2025. You know, very strong FRE growth for us, confirming the $225 million to $245 million FRE for 2026. And a 58% to 60% FRE margin. We also, you know, would like to thank you for your participation. Hope to see you in person soon, and have a very, very good day. Thank you.
Thank you all for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.
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Patria Investments — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Patria Investments — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Solide Q1: starkes Fundraising und AUM‑Wachstum, Guidance bestätigt, Performance‑Fee‑Realisation wurde aber vorsichtiger terminiert.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Fundraising: $2,1 Mrd. im Q1; Management bleibt auf Jahresziel $7 Mrd. (2025 Rekord: $7,7 Mrd.).
- Fee‑AUM: $45,8 Mrd. (Fee‑earning AUM = gebührenpflichtige Assets under Management), +31% YoY, +≈12% vs Q4‑2025; pro forma mit WP Global: $47,5 Mrd.
- FRE (Fee‑related earnings): ≈$50–51 Mio. im Quartal, +19% YoY; FRE‑Marge 54,6% (Ziel 58–60%).
- Umsatz / DE: Fee‑Revenues $92,6 Mio. (+20% YoY); Distributable Earnings $42,4 Mio. bzw. $0,27 je Aktie (+14% YoY).
- Bilanz: $350 Mio. fixe Schuldverschreibungen ausgegeben (Coupons 6–6,6%, Ø‑Kosten 6,4%), Pro‑forma Net‑Debt/FRE ≈0,8x.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Diversifikation: Strategie verschiebt sich zu mehr permanentem Kapital und marktbewerteten Vehikeln (REITs, Credit, Public), um Ertrags‑Volatilität aus Performance‑Fees zu reduzieren.
- Wachstum in Credit: Fokus auf Nicht‑Bank‑Finanzierung in Brasilien; Solis‑Integration stärkt CLO‑ und Private‑Credit‑Plattform.
- Kapitalmanagement: Schuldemission verlängert Laufzeiten, reduziert Revolving‑Abhängigkeit; Ziel: Liquidität für Dividenden, Buybacks und Wachstum.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- FRE‑Guidance: Bestätigt $225–245 Mio. für 2026 (≈$1,42–1,54/Aktie); 2027‑Ziel $260–290 Mio.
- Margen & Timing: Management erwartet schrittweise Margenverbesserung auf 58–60% im Zeitverlauf; saisonale Incentive‑Fees Q4 erwartet $10–15 Mio.
- PRE (Performance‑Fees): Urspr. 3‑Jahresziel $120–140 Mio. (Q4‑2024 bis Ende 2027); aktuell $62 Mio. realisiert → neues Bandbreite‑Erwartung für Periode $80–100 Mio., Teile der PRE‑Realisierung wahrscheinlich nach 2027.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Brasilien‑Risiko: Analysten fragten nach Wahl‑Szenarien; Management sieht unterschiedliche Folgen für Zinsniveau/Inflation und betont Produkt‑Breite (Credit, Infra, REITs) als Absicherung.
- Performance‑Fees / Exits: Konkrete Nachfrage zu PE Fund IV/V: Management erwartet kein Carry aus Fund IV, bei Fund V vorsichtig — Upside möglich, aber nicht eingepreist.
- Margin‑Treiber & Kosten: Fragen zur Aufschlüsselung von Q1‑Kosten (Akquisition, Kompensation, FX); CFO nennt drei temporäre Faktoren (Integration, Jahres‑Comp‑Reset, vorgelagerte Plattforminvestitionen) ohne vollständige monetäre Aufschlüsselung.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Patria zeigt kräftiges AUM‑ und FRE‑Wachstum mit verbesserter Bilanzstruktur; Guidance wird bestätigt, aber Performance‑Fee‑Erträge wurden zeitlich zurückgestuft, weshalb das Near‑Term‑Upside limitiert bleibt. Wichtige Watch‑Points: Umsetzung der Margenexpansion, Konversion der $3,3 Mrd. Pending‑AUM und die Exit‑dynamik (Zinsumfeld & Brasilien‑Politik).
Patria Investments — Special Call - Patria Investments Limited
1. Management Discussion
Hello, everyone. I'm Andre Medina, Shareholder Relations Director at Patria, and welcome to the fifth edition of our PAX Talks, a deep dive into Patria's Credit platform. This will be a panel discussion. And if you have questions, please submit them, and we'll try to get through as many as we can. Of course, before we start, I have to read the obligatory forward-looking statement. So I'd like to remind everyone that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain, and do not guarantee future performance, and undue reliance should not be placed on them.
Patria assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on current management expectations and involve risks, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our latest 20-F annual report. I also note that those statements on this call constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Patria fund. Okay. So with that, I'm very happy to have with us today Alexandre Coutinho, our Partner and Head of Credit in Brazil; Carlos Gundersen, Patria's Senior Director, helping lead our Credit Investor Relations; and as the moderator, Rob Lee, currently Patria's Senior Adviser that I know a lot of you are familiar with.
So, to kick off the panel, I'd like to pass the word to Rob Lee. So Rob?
Great. Thank you, Andre, and thanks, everyone, for joining us and what I think will be an interesting discussion on Private Credit, which is in the news lately. So, maybe a good way to start is, I mean, equity investors, I think, typically think of private credit as being monolithic. When in reality, private credit is highly diverse when it comes to various types of strategies, product structures, and targeted investors. I think PAX Credit [ platform ] in that sense is no different, in that the business may be more diverse than I think investors may realize, particularly following the Solis acquisition.
Since both Carlos and Alex here represent different aspects of PAX's Credit platform, I think as a starting point and before we get into more detail, I think it would be great if you both could take a couple of minutes to summarize the types of credit assets and structures managed in part by the pieces of the business that you represent. Summarize that and very simplistically, the products, the structures, and the types of investors before we'll get into more specifics around market, TAM, and opportunities. So guys, thank you for joining me on this. And Alex, why don't we start with you?
Thank you, Rob. Concerning Credit, it's interesting to mention that also I'm part of the Investment Credit Committee of Private Debt fund for Latin America, and also I'm part of the -- a member of the Investment Committee of Solis. What we do here in Latin America is really different from what you can observe there in the U.S. It's much more, I would say, structured credit, although we do bilateral transactions, but the scope is a little bit different. Indeed, I will do the following. Carlos, do you want to go through these pages to explain, because it's very clear and very transparent. It will be very helpful; then I go in more details of the transactions. Carlos...
Absolutely, Alex. I'll start with that. Good morning, afternoon, or evening, everybody. So, today, across the Patria Credit Platform, we are managing about $12.3 billion. We mainly separate this in 3 sort of flagship strategies. The first one, and the oldest one, which was launched in year 2000 is our Hard Currency High-Yield strategy that invests primarily in high-yield bonds, performing bonds of Latin American companies. We've grown that strategy from $15 million in 2000 to over $5 billion and mostly to performance. So, this strategy has returned 11.1% net returns per year over 26 years. So, it's very impressive. Then, 16 years ago, we started our Local Currency Bond strategy, which manages about $2.3 billion at the moment.
This is mainly a strategy geared towards local investors who, most of the time have liabilities in local currency and want to match that with a product that offers the pairing counter side. And then, last but not least, we have what brings us together today, Private Debt. We manage about $4.7 billion at the moment after the acquisition of the Solis platform. And in this part, we do both. So, we do Hard Currency Private Credit and also Local Currency Private Credit to both the CLO platform, SMAs or funds. Alex, back to you, if you want to go deeper into any of those.
Okay. Thank you, Carlos. So the structures, the fine investments that we perform over Latin America, I would say that we do bilateral transactions as well. The major difference when compared to the U.S. market is deeply over-collateralized. So the transaction that when do -- when we provide loans to the companies. We have a very broad and expanded collateral. And I would say that typically is absolutely of the transaction. So, basically, it's much easier to execute these collaterals and much easier and faster than traditionally -- it is a traditional loan.
We do also a lot of securitizations in the form of CLOs, CDOs. And basically, what's the advantage? Because in this case, it's not collateral. We own the receivables. So, if the company filed for Chapter 11, 7, doesn't matter, the collateral is ours, and we execute and receive the cash as the cash flows concerning that specific package of receivables. So that Solis specifically is very strong in this front. And also, you do also the traditional asset-backed securities as well. For example, a fleet of auto loans, so we have the -- we provide lending to the final buyer of the car. We have the fleet of cars, we do that for ships as well for vessels.
And because of that, our transaction is very resistant to defaults. And also another aspect that is different, we have a very extended coverage of covenants. We have typically very long list of financial and operational covenants that make our process faster. And finally, I would like to mention that another angle that is very important to us is that we prefer to provide credit to companies that naturally, because of all of this that I mentioned to you, companies that are very heavy in assets. So, for us, it's very difficult to provide loans to a service provider, to a developer of software because it doesn't have assets to provide as collateral. So, very quickly, that's what we do here in Latin America. Carlos, am I missing something here?
No, no, no. You said it all. And, I would like to maybe summarize that the biggest or one of the biggest advantages Patria has in this market is that we can act as a Credit Manufacturer to basically assist companies on any type of credit they need. We can lend locally, we can lend in local currency, in hard currency, and also privately or publicly. We have different buckets in our strategies to basically accommodate that and find the best solution both for us, our investors, and our counterparts.
Great. I think that's probably a good starting point for maybe talking a little bit about the market TAM, the opportunity within the region. I mean, obviously, in the developed world, you've seen explosive growth of Private Credit, broadly defined. Notwithstanding a lot of recent headlines around retail-evergreen product redemptions generally, you've seen very strong demand globally. And obviously, in the U.S. and elsewhere, the markets are more developed.
So, can you talk a little bit about, obviously, Credit in general, but Private Credit, in particular? Where are we within the region in terms of its penetration rate and its ability to grow and expand? And maybe also as part of that -- what's changing to drive that or not and the competitive universe as you see it?
Yes. Maybe let me start just to paint a little bit how the market looks nowadays. So -- if you think about the Corporate Solutions market in Latin America or credit market, it's a market that, in size, is much bigger than most people realize. It's $2.3 trillion at the moment, where obviously, the largest chunk is dominated by the banking sector. So banks represent about 42% of the market. And that's been inherently a blue-chip, very constrained market, both by regulation and also because they have a great business, and Alex can touch on that in a minute, but they don't need to get very creative when it comes to offer credit solutions.
So, they have their playbook and they play by it. Then you have another very large market, which is the Local Currency Bond Market that represents about $700 billion at the moment, 32% market share. And again, very large corporates, very high credit, and mostly Investment Grade quality market. So mostly senior unsecured, covenant-lite. So, they cater for the very large corporates seeking credit. Then you have the High Yield and Investment Grade markets in dollars, which has been a very strong and novel asset class over years.
But again, if you want to play in that market, you need to issue at scale. Normally, if you don't issue at $300 million, $400 million, you won't be in the Indices as such and liquidity for those bonds is going to be constrained. And what this creates, everything I've said until now is that there's a very large mid- and small-market that is underserved. So, companies seeking to look for a credit solution, $10 million, $20 million, $50 million, $100 million, don't have many obvious places to go look for those solutions.
And that's where Private Credit has been doing its first steps. If you look at the chart here on the left, on the bottom, there's that tiny less than 1% Private Credit bucket, which is according to Preqin about $16 billion at the moment. So, extremely small. And let me make a small comparison here. If you take the Private Credit market and compare it against the High Yield market, in the U.S., this is all Preqin data, and that represents about 79% of the High Yield market. For Europe, 124%, so much larger. If you look at Latin America, and the Private Credit market represents 5% of the credit solutions compared to High Yield.
As such, we think that there is a runway for this market to grow 20x over the last 20 years. So, this is like investing in the U.S. Private Credit 20 years ago when it was just starting. And we believe that, that's an amazing opportunity. And that's, again, in a market with very low levels of leverage where credit penetration is very low. So, if you look at corporate credit against GDP in Latin America, it is 40%. North America is about double of that, and Europe and Asia are almost 3x that. And even when you look at total debt, including households, credit cards, consumer goods, et cetera, those numbers are still much, much lower than in other economies.
A good point, Carlos. And, I would like to emphasize one of the aspects that you mentioned concerning the dynamics in Latin America. Once again, Latin America has this history of high inflation, and we learned how to fight for a high inflation a long time ago. And fortunately, unfortunately, it comes back time to time. And because of that, the Central Banks, they are very fast and aggressive in increasing interest rates whenever it is needed. And that's the situation, for example, in Brazil. So LTM, last 12 months, I would say that the Real Interest Rate is similar close to 10% real return, so 10% above inflation.
So -- and if you imagine that you have a bank, so basically, this bank can buy government bonds with a 10% real return. And naturally, a bank is leveraged. So, the banks, although the Latin American banks, they are really good, they are very conservative, but they don't have to work really hard to have a really good Return on Equity or Return on Assets. And because of that, it creates an opportunity. Basically, we complement the banks and we fulfill some blanks at the banks they cannot provide credit because of regulation. Basel III, for example, in the case of the U.S., American banks with a local presence have certain rule, they have some limitations that a Private Credit fund, they don't have. And that's the reason that we have such good interest opportunity in Latin America.
And because of that, I really believe that the opportunity that we are facing in Latin America is the same opportunity that the Private Credit market faced around 2008 and really started this, I would say, this market there. That's the reason that we have a very interesting return. We have a very interest package of collateral and covenants. And we don't face that much competition, because there are a couple of players. But, as you can imagine, Latin America is difficult to invest from New York. So, you have to have a local presence. So, we do have offices in Brazil, in São Paulo, in Fortaleza—, in Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Peru, Colombia.
It does make a lot of sense, with this local capacity to originate, to do maintenance of the portfolio. And this creates this opportunity, and that dynamic makes our investment process very different from the process in the U.S. And something that also is important to mention that we have a Private Equity DNA. And what does it mean? It means that our funds, usually, they are long-term funds, they are closed-end funds. So, you don't have this mismatch of assets and liabilities. Our funds is really -- all of them, they are long term when we invest in Private Debt. Usually, they are closed-end funds with Capital Calls. So, it's another difference that is very meaningful when you compare it to the U.S. market.
Great. One -- maybe a couple of things I think are worth maybe drilling down a bit. One is talking about the differences of the Private Debt markets in the Region versus the U.S. and globally is number one, the notable, absence of Direct Lending in the region; if you could touch on that a little bit. Number two, based on what you said and conversations we've had in the past is one of the concerns in the developed markets, you read about is Covenant-lite, a lot of PIKs in portfolios, and concerns about the general overall protections going down and maybe diving into those aspects.
Why or how you think the -- why there's something different or unique about the covenant structures that you have in the Region versus what we read about in the rest of the world. I think those would be 2 great rabbit holes to go down. And then after that, we'll come back. I would like to talk about what investors are you seeing? Are you seeing more global investors coming into the market and different strategies? Are you seeing it expand locally as well? Carlos, do you want to start, please?
Absolutely, yes. I think when you think about, let's call it, developed markets, Direct Lending, and because of the actors and different players we see in those markets, in our opinion, that market is primarily enterprise value-based, relying heavily on covenants, but also sponsor support and quite broad security packages over operating companies. In contrast, when you look at LatAm, Private Credit here is much more structurally driven. So, what features our different transactions here is very hard collateral, as Alex said before, and cash flow controls, true sale of receivables, and bankruptcy-remote structures, and very important, and this is a meaningful difference with amortizing profiles.
This results in protections that are less dependent on the enterprise value of the business, but more on the contractual cash flows that we can capture through our structuring. So, a different way of looking at it is in developed markets, collateral often supports a restructuring. In Latin America, the structure is designed to avoid needing a restructuring. We always say our mindset, when we face an opportunity and we analyze the opportunity, at the end of the day, 1 point more or less on IRR is important, but it's not our driving force.
Our driving force is our Structuring first mindset, where we basically spend a lot of time making sure that the thing we're creating -- the structure we're creating works for us, works for the company, and we're protected in case something happens because we know we operate across many different markets in the Regions, different industry, different dynamics, different Central Banks, different currency sometimes for different businesses. Something can happen there, and something can happen to the companies. What we need to make sure is that nothing is going to happen and that our structure is robust enough so that we can fulfill our goals.
I'll just say -- this may be a single question, sorry, Alex. But at the risk of maybe overstating it, do you think this characterization is correct? I think of, say, the U.S., it was -- Private Credit was really predominantly Direct Lending driven. And now in the U.S., they're diversifying into other types of Private Credit, whereas in the Region, you never -- there was no Direct Lending to speak of. And so you immediately started in a place where maybe parts of the rest of the world are migrating to in terms of structure and being driven outside of the LBO market. Am I overstating it?
Yes. No, no, no. But there's a few points there, and Alex is more eloquent than me on a few of them. But I would say that because of the structure of the companies in Latin America, I want to say the vast majority of companies are still family-owned. So these are families that built, created, prove these companies. These are -- their families have their wealth. They have created over time. So they're very conservative. That coupled with the environment where we live, where there's less access to credit, scarcity of capital, companies, at the end of the day, showcase much lower levels of leverage than one which you find in other places.
So, if you look at Latin America, I think the High Yield market is 2.6x net debt to EBITDA. In the U.S., that's 4x, 5x, depending on those segments. So, companies are very conservative when it comes to debt. And as such, there's way more space to do things and lend money and also not having sponsor-backed companies because the LBO model failed when they try to implement it in Latin America. That's why Patria in the Private Equity vertical follows a Buy-and-Build model, right? But having that more conservative approach allows you to have better structures and more protection.
Yes. I'd like to emphasize 2 points that Carlos mentioned. One that's concerning the covenants, and it is interesting because we are very -- it is strange, but it's true. We are very happy when a company breaches a covenant and why? It means that we were -- we are very close to the company and we can monitor the company. And it doesn't mean that we will necessarily we charge a waiver fee or something like that. It means that we have the right leverage to negotiate, and are close enough to the company to do something if it's necessary. So, that's one of your initial questions well.
And the second topic concerning the entrepreneurs in Latin America, and it's fascinating. Something that I love is to start our due diligence with a new businessman. And also it is very different than in the U.S. Here in Brazil, we are providing debt to the traditional families, not for the new techy companies that they are working in AI, et cetera. No, it's a traditional company with real assets, first- or second-generation typically. And with the owner that's a 70-year-old guy that faced all the crisis that you can imagine around the globe, that's not the first thing -- it's not the first war, it's not the second war that this guy is facing.
So, he will try to be as conservative as possible and it is curious that when you talk with U.S. investors that we are providing a Private Debt transaction that the company is 3x net debt to EBITDA, they get surprised, but that's our average company that are providing Direct Lending. It's very unique and very fascinating when we are dealing with these entrepreneurs that creates the company that they love the company because of that, they are very tough in the negotiation at the same time. So -- and they accept to be very tight covenant cut. They will not do that anyway. So it's interesting.
Maybe talk a little bit about your investor base, okay? So obviously, some of the products are dollar-based, some are local. I think it may be interesting to talk about how maybe that's evolved over time, maybe with shifting regulation or as Patria itself is maybe part to leverage its relationships. Can you talk about changes that you've seen and where you think it's going as importantly?
Yes. Well, obviously, at the very beginning, this was -- our client base was dominated by local players, pension funds, insurance companies, large family offices. For them, this has never been a satellite investment; it's core. It's very close to their heart. It's something that they can relate. It's something they understand. So that was originally our bread and butter. I would say around the Global Financial Crisis, we started expanding that and catering for more sophisticated investors across the world.
And what you see today is that a very material portion of our client base is pension funds in North America, global consultants, Middle Eastern family offices and institutions, insurance companies. So, it's very varied. And it was part of an educational process of not looking at Latin America as a tactical allocation or as an opportunistic allocation, but to really drill down and understand that there is a very meaningful risk premium that hasn't been priced correctly by the market. In our opinion, and that has generated consistent alpha over time.
So, when I say that our High Yield fund has delivered 11% per year, that's 370 points above the benchmark. It's not by chance. It's because there's a repeatable alpha to be caught because the spread that those issuers are required to deliver, it's not justified with the underlying risk. [indiscernible] broaden to more institutions across the world. We are, at the moment, raising our Fund II on the Hard Currency side, and almost all of the advanced prospects that are in due diligence right now are Northern Hemisphere or developed-market institutional clients.
And [indiscernible] transformation of this dynamic of global investors with local investors. And we have access to the most sophisticated global investors, including development agencies for specific strategies. Although, it's important to mention that the return is key, always; it's not only a matter of [indiscernible] impact, positive impact. That's always -- it's natural to us to be concerned. So it's natural to partner with them as well, but the return is key.
But in the local market, it's the same dynamic. We have a very good, strong, and close relationship with the most sophisticated local investors, delivering local return that's naturally -- we are very concerned with the balance of Asset Liability Management in all aspects concerning liquidity and also currency. And that's the reason that it's very important also to have a local presence with local investors.
How -- I mean, given the persistency of Alpha, Carlos, in your business, normally, you would expect that kind of Alpha over a long period of time will attract competitors or whatnot and will drive down the return profile. Whether it's in your part of the business or Alex's in yours, are there some structural things that, in your view, limit competition? Or do you think it's just there's so much opportunity, competition comes in, and there's still excess returns to be had? How do you think of that impacting the competitive landscape?
I would say that the key factor here is the people. This is a people business. We have a very large Credit team. If you count the Solis platform, we have over 110 credit analysts just covering Latin America. That's unheard of. So, having boots-on-the-ground, being locals in the markets where we operate, as Alex said before, having offices in São Paulo, in Fortaleza, in Buenos Aires, Montevideo, Santiago, Lima, and Colombia, et cetera, that gives us access and an opportunity to unlock value where most people simply don't have the knowledge.
So, imagine you're a big asset manager in London. How many people do you dedicate to cover Latin America? And how much depth can you gain? So, I think people makes a difference. We invest in our people. We develop our people. Leadership has been there since Day 1. So, in all the strategies I've shown, the people who launched that strategy, it's still on board. So, we have had 0 Portfolio Manager turnover historically in the credit vertical.
So, that acquired and held talent and knowledge is key because this is going to sound surprising, but most of the time, when we engage with clients, it's repeated business. It's people we have been doing business before. We've lent to them in local currency, in dollars, or privately, but it's people we know. So, I think that's the biggest difference and what has limited competition over time.
Maybe it's a good time. I don't know if Andre, if there's any questions from the audience, pass along?
Yes, there is. Actually, just to remind everyone to submit your questions, please do e-mail to us. We do have a few over here, and I'll read them. The first one asks for both Patria's Private Credit Fund I and the CLO, CDO business, could you talk about Patria's proprietary origination capabilities? Alex, do you want to talk about that one and talk about the CLO?
Absolutely. You want to start or...
Yes, please.
You start, please.
Okay. Let me. So on the Private Credit Fund I, I would say the vast majority has been bilateral transactions. So, transactions where we are discussing with a company a credit solution, if it's not done with us, it doesn't get done. And in some cases, we have been part of a larger negotiation. We also have done a couple of secondary steps. So, those were very opportunistic interesting transactions that have been prepaid and made-whole, so have been very accretive for the portfolio.
I would say that due to what I mentioned at the beginning, this Middle Market that's a bit forgotten because either large players are not going to look at a $50 million transaction or a $40 million transaction in the region, and there's not that many sources of capital. We have the advantage of looking at them first and being able to reject or go ahead. Since we launched Fund I in 2024, we have deployed in the strategy $800 million, but that comes after we looked at almost $23.5 billion in deal flow in that same period. So, that's about 2 years.
Those were 305, I think, opportunities we looked at. So that's a yearly rate of about 150 deals for $14 billion, $15 billion per year. Remember, the size of the market is $16 billion. So there is a very large need of capital that comes to us. We analyze it. We make sure that everything is in place. Is it the right yield? Do we have the right protections? Do we understand the business enough? Can we create an SPV where we can capture flows before they flow into the company? If all of that is yes, we can pull the trigger and structure something. But yes, I would say that the vast majority is Proprietary Negotiated.
Yes. Let me talk about the CLO, CDO business and let's split in the dynamics of Solis and the dynamics of the traditional Credit business. So concerning Solis, it's important to mention that they are very strong in the factoring business and in consignado, as you say, in Portuguese. So it's also deductible loans from individuals that work with government entities and also in the private sector. And it's important to mention in these 2 major industries of -- although they invest in all kinds of CLOs, CDOs, but these are the 2 most important lines of business.
A lot of the Originators of Receivables, they are in the market for some time, but some of them, they are not that huge yet in Brazil. And -- so, basically, they provide funding these Originators of Receivables since 0, since a very small portfolio of receivables. And because of that, this origination naturally is on. We don't need someone else and also it would be almost impossible to have someone else originating this kind of transactions to you. And the -- we are talking about a volume of between $5 billion and $6 billion, more or less.
And then we have the traditional Private Debt transaction that we are including CLO deals. As I mentioned, it makes more sense to talk about Structured Credit in this case. But anyway, in this dynamic is a little bit different, although also we originate 60%, 70% of these transactions, but some of them -- they are syndicated with other institutions, including banks. And the difference is that in this line of business, basically, we are investing with very traditional players in the market. So, we are talking with a segment business that has -- they have 20-year experience, 30 years experience.
So, they are very mature, and they are issuing their own CLOs, CDOs for years since the inception of the Brazilian regulation about this line of business. And because of this dynamic, they can originate their own, but we structure by ourselves, and we do have relationships directly with them, but sometimes we have to do a syndication of this transactions. But once again, in this line of business, we are talking about 67% origination for CLO, CDOs in the Traditional Credit portfolio for...
We do have a few additional questions here. The second one says the U.S. Private Credit has become more and more competitive, with the structure and terms increasingly borrower-friendly. Could you talk about the typical structure and terms of deals in Patria's Private Credit Fund? Yes. Give me one second. I'm going to share a slide just to showcase what we've done here.
So, yes, we have the same opinion. And it's important -- sorry, there we go. Here, we have the 14 transactions. There's a 15 now that I haven't included yet. But when you look at Direct Lending in the U.S., I would say that the majority of the things you see on the covenant package and the corporate guarantees are there. So the first 2 columns you see on this very busy chart. The added value that we can consistently add in Latin America are all the other columns.
So, the owner guarantee, the shares, the real assets, the cash flows, the true future of receivables and the bankruptcy-remote structure. I think those are very unique to what we do. And the objective of creating these structures is that we ring-fence cash flows. So, for example, in the telecom, the first line there, the bankruptcy-remote model, it does, it captures both the monthly payments of the users of the cell phone plans in Chile, plus the handset, the mobile phone payments, and that goes into the structure. And, we have over a one-time coverage of the entire credit facility we provided for this company on a monthly basis.
So, once we see that, once we have captured the cash flows, those get released to the company. But if anything ever goes wrong, we can basically without the need of going to a judge or engaging in a very time-consuming judicial process, we own the trust. So, we have direct access to those cash flows, which is a massive advantage. And something I mentioned before that we insist in most cases is to have amortizing structures. So, we don't want to face any or minimize the refinancing risk.
And this also provides you the opportunity of being close to the company and identifying problems earlier. So when you have a debt that's amortizing, they have to pay interest plus principal on a quarterly or semi-annual basis. You can identify problems very early on and address them in time and not wait until the last day to basically be surprised by a breach or a refinancing problem that you didn't foresee.
Yes. I would like to emphasize what I mentioned before. We love companies that breach covenants. And so, basically, we usually have a very long list of all kinds of covenants that you can imagine. Naturally, there are some lines of business that is even tougher. We also do Project Finance in our Infra Credit Funds. And, as you can imagine, we have as collateral, everything, shares. We have the assets, the contracts, the cash flow, the bank accounts. So, basically, something gets wrong, we can assume the company and sell to someone else. And also, we have technical expertise to do that if it's necessary.
Fortunately or unfortunately, we use these covenants in these tools in the past. And very quickly, we solved the problems. I have a couple of experience that before the company managed to do to file for Chapter 11, we managed to [indiscernible] collateral, to get the cash and to leave the company and something that is unusual for CLOs and CDOs in the U.S., and here in Latin America as well, but it's very common to us to include covenants related to the seller of the receivables in the securitizations.
Usually, we have only covenants related to the securities to the receivables, but we include as well the covenants related to the company. So why to move faster. We would like to move as fast as possible if something gets wrong inside the company. And that's the reason that, basically, when we put together an indenture or a collateral agreement, or something like that, we have hundreds of pages of documents in order to have as many tools as possible to execute and leave the problem as soon as possible with our cash back.
So, it's very detailed, and we haven't seen a deterioration of this package over the years and because this market in Latin America is really different and a lot of players that are trying to invest from London, from New York and you have to have a local presence with -- in order to move fast, we have to be local in talking directly with the owners of the company very frequently to have the feeling if something is going wrong to help the company when it's the case. And once it's too late to leave as soon as possible.
Maybe just to reinforce something we have said, Alex, we have access to a multilayer approach to company. So, Alex, Fernando, Javier, the Senior Leadership of the company, they talk to the owners, they talk to the families. Then our co-PMs, they might talk to the CFOs to the Investor Relations, the analysts, they're speaking with the analysts in their respective companies. So that multilayered approach allows us to, one, check consistency and be very close to the company and we understand exactly what's going on.
Because remember, these companies we invest in -- sometimes in developed markets, they are small companies in the middle of an industry that are not very well known. In the case of Latin America, usually, we're dealing with the leaders of each sector. So, we're dealing with very large corporates with very good and established business that need a credit solution that we can fulfill.
And just going back to the structuring, something I didn't mention before that it's quite important for Latin America in hard currency. So, that applies for our Private Credit Fund I and soon to come up Fund II is that we fixed. So these are mostly fixed-rate loans. So, we are able to lock in a very good interest rate at the moment, and are not floating, as they are in most in developed markets.
And we do have a third question here, which is about our LatAm High Yield outperformance of the strategy. So it says, could you talk -- could you walk through how Patria's Flagship Credit fund outperformed the benchmark by 370 basis points net per annum for over 20 years.
It's 26 years, but who's counting there? Look, we launched that fund in the year 2000. It's been led by Fernando Chiarella, our Head of Credit since Day 1. And if you ask him, he's going to say it's a very simple business. It's lend money to good corporates with good contractual features, read everything and pricing is key. So, we might have a lot of position in that fund, but at the end of the day, it's also very concentrated. So, the top 10 positions usually represent about 40% of the portfolio. The top 20, it is about 60%. We're not afraid to get our hands dirty when there's a problem, when a company is facing some issues and the bonds are trading downwards.
If we understand the company, if we think that the price is an event and not a sustained loss of their capacity to fulfill their debt -- we might buy on the downward stream, get involved in the restructuring. And that has been one of the levers we can apply that has been very unique. So about 5% or 6% of the portfolio is in Special Situations, which is interesting. But at the end of the day, the vast majority of this portfolio is performing bonds that yield, and the default rate has been very low. We have managed to avoid the bad situations by being close to the companies and by having a team that basically does their job and avoids the defaults. That's been the main driver of performance.
I just say I know we're coming up towards the end, but I did have a question maybe for Alex, and this is talking about the market and Structured Finance. Can you talk a little bit about -- I mean, it's a growing market, the demand. Oftentimes, you see kind of business that maybe banks would be interested in or not. But can you talk about maybe the regulatory and banking environment in the Region that how that's impacting growth at least in that part of the Private Credit business and kind of what are some of those kind of macro impacts?
Do you want to start with Carlos and I guess? I don't know. Carlos, can you hear me?
Start.
So, concerning the regulation in Latin America in generally and the global regulation for banks, I would see that it creates a very interesting opportunity. And specifically in the case, for example, CLOs and CDOs have seen a lot of banks that's doing the calculation of capital allocation in order to optimize Return on Equity, they cannot buy a mezzanine tranches of securitizations. And when they buy senior tranche, the capital allocation is much better than buying an equivalent risk profile. So, they are moving to buy senior tranches of securitizations.
It's a good partnership that we can do with Latin American banks. So we buy the mezzanine. But in order to do that, we have to know very well the portfolio, the origination. We define the investment criteria of the CDOs, CLOs. So, it's creating a good opportunity to us. And at the same time, to invest in illiquid assets and long-term assets, always naturally matching assets with liabilities, matching the funds. The capital allocation for all the banks is extremely negative for the bank. So, it creates opportunities to us. And sometimes we are long, sometimes we are syndicating with banks.
Also concerning technology, so technology is getting easier and cheaper. So once again, for securitization, it helps a lot to make a very robust and transparent and being able to monitor a portfolio of receivables and as in securitization or as collateral for transactions in both structures and it makes the Risk-Return Profile better. I would say that we see a lot of potential in Latin America. And all the noise that we are observing now, globally speaking, is positive for the business.
We are able to originate very good opportunities, investments, and creates opportunities where a lot of people see challenges, and we are deploying capital with a very good Risk-Return Profile, concerning collateral, concerning problem-solving once again and return naturally. So, the perspective for Latin America is extremely positive for Private Credit in general, locally or globally speaking, in Latin America. Am I missing something here, Carlos?
I think you said it very well. And at the end of the day, we are not inviting people to sell all the Developed Market Credit or Private Credit exposure and get into this. But we think this is a fantastic complement to what you already have. So, we all have seen what's that the challenges faced by the industry. Competition in other pockets of the world is very strong. And this is a market that's nascent that the first-movers will have an advantage and will capture more of the upside.
But I always ask a question to clients, like if you could travel in time and go 20 years back, would you invest in U.S. Private Credit when it was the innovative people who are doing it? And the answer is mostly yes. And my answer is, well, then Latin America is starting with the advantage that we've seen that market develop. So we have to learn from their mistakes. We can anticipate some of the things that will happen in this market as it evolves. And we have the platform, we have the people, we have the technology to address that opportunity, to move fast, and to allocate capital at a very, very -- with a good Alpha proposition.
I would like to emphasize this aspect. For example, we learned from the mistakes of the developed markets. For example, 2008 was a very meaningful benchmark, and we learned a lot. That's the reason that we haven't seen the same mistakes in Latin America. From 2008 up to now, basically, we overcame that because the regulation in those countries improved in observation of what happened in the U.S. and also technology. Basically, we are investing in the same kind of instruments, but with the current technology, so this makes a huge difference to avoid fraud or credit wrong analysis, et cetera. So it's a good point, Carlos.
That's great. I think we're just about out of time. Andre, I don't know if there's anything else from the from the audience? Any last questions?
Yes. No additional questions from the audience at this time. I just think this was a very, very valuable discussion. Thank you Coutinho. Thank you, Carlos. Thank you, Rob, so much. And I don't know if you guys have any closing remarks, or Rob, if you have any additional questions that you want to wrap up.
No, I think we got most of them. I'm sure if anyone out there has more questions, they could pass them through to Andre, and he will pass them along to Carlos, Alex, or myself, as the case may be. And I just want to thank everyone for doing this. I think it was very helpful and interesting conversation, and look forward to more of these in the future.
Thank you all. Thank you for the opportunity.
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Patria Investments — Special Call - Patria Investments Limited
Patria Investments — Special Call - Patria Investments Limited
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kurzfassung: Patria positioniert seine Credit-Plattform als spezialisierten, lokal verankerten Private‑Credit‑ und Structured‑Credit‑Anbieter in Lateinamerika mit überlegenen Strukturnetzen (überbesicherte Kredite, True‑sale‑Receivables, CLO/ CDO‑Securities) und einem großen Markt‑Runway wegen niedriger Kreditpenetration.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- AUM‑Mix: Plattform ~$12.3 Mrd.; Hard‑currency High‑Yield ≈$5 Mrd.; Local‑currency Bonds ≈$2.3 Mrd.; Private Debt ≈$4.7 Mrd. nach Solis‑Akquisition.
- Strukturierung: Fokus auf amortisierende, festverzinsliche Strukturen, bankruptcy‑remote true‑sale, breite Covenants, Asset‑backing (Fahrzeuge, Schiffe, Forderungen) – reduziert Refinanzierungs‑ und Recovery‑Risiken.
- Origination & Team: Proprietäre Deal‑Pipeline (großer Anteil bilateral), lokale Präsenz in mehreren Ländern, ~110 Credit‑Analysten; geringe PM‑Fluktuation als Wettbewerbsvorteil.
📢 Neue Informationen
- Konkretes: Seit Fund I (2024) Deployment $800 Mio. nach Sichtung ~$23.5 Mrd. Dealflow (~305 Opportunities); Solis bringt starkes Factoring/consignado‑Originationvolumen (~$5–6 Mrd.).
- Fundraising: Hard‑Currency Fund II in fortgeschrittener Due‑Diligence bei vorwiegend entwickelten Institutionen; keine expliziten Zielgrößen genannt.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Origination: Wie proprietär? Antwort: hoher Anteil direkt originierter Transaktionen (60–70% bei CLOs), viele bilateral strukturierte Deals.
- Vertragsbedingungen: Nachfrage zu Covenant‑Laxity/PIK: Management betont breite, durchsetzbare Covenants, owner guarantees und schnelle Zugriffsmöglichkeiten; sie bevorzugen Covenant‑Breaches als Frühwarnsignal.
- Markt & Wettbewerb: Wie groß ist der TAM? Antwort: Kreditmarkt LATAM ≈$2.3 Bio.; Private Credit aktuell sehr klein (~$16 Mrd. laut Preqin) — großes Wachstumspotenzial; konkrete Wettbewerbs‑Impact‑Prognosen blieben allgemein.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Das Panel unterstreicht Patrias differenzierten, strukturbasierten Ansatz in LatAm‑Credit: starke Origination, lokale Expertise und robuste Strukturen stützen Renditen und Fee‑Potenzial. Hauptrisiken sind makro/Regulierungswechsel und zunehmender Wettbewerb; für langfristig orientierte Investoren signalisiert das Modell Wachstums‑ und Alpha‑Potenzial.
Patria Investments — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Patria's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Andre Medina from Patria Shareholder Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Patria's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call. Speaking today on the call are our Chief Executive Officer, Alex Saigh; and our Chief Financial Officer, Ana Russo; and our Chief Economist, Luis Fernando Lopes for the Q&A session.
This morning, we issued a press release and earnings presentation detailing our results for the quarter which you can find posted in the Investor Relations section of our website or on Form 6-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available.
Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain, do not guarantee future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Patria assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on current management expectations and involve risks including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our latest Form 20-F annual report. Also note that no statement on this call constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Patria fund.
As a foreign private issuer, Patria reports financial results using International Financial Reporting Standards, or IFRS, as opposed to U.S. GAAP. Additionally, we would like to remind everyone that we will refer to certain non-IFRS measures, which we believe are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business, but which should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. Reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable IFRS measures are included in our earnings presentation.
Now I'll turn the call over to Alex.
Thank you, Andre. Good morning everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We are very excited to report our fourth quarter results, a capstone to a very successful 2025, which highlights how as we enter 2026, Patria is in a strong position to achieve and hopefully exceed the 3-year fundraising and FRE fee-related earnings objectives, in addition to other important KPIs we set for ourselves at our Investor Day in December 2024.
Highlights of the quarter and 2025 includes organic fundraising of $1.7 billion in the quarter and a record $7.7 billion for the full year. Sharply surpassed our previously upwardly revised full year target [ of $6 billion ] by more than $1 billion. We generated $203 million of fee-related earnings in 2025, up 19% year-over-year, achieving our objective of $200 million plus for the year. Distributable earnings per share reached $1.27 in 2025, driven by the strong fee-related earnings growth in addition to $19.6 million of performance-related earnings in the fourth quarter. We announced back on November 26, 2025 the acquisition of 51% of the Brazilian private credit manager, Solis, which closed on January 2, Solis with approximately $3.5 billion of fee earning AUM as of the third quarter 2025, substantially expands our capabilities and scale in the rapidly growing private credit market in Brazil.
Pro forma for the acquisition, our credit vertical fee earning AUM is approximately $12.1 billion. We also announced on December 11, 2025, the acquisition of several REITs, real estate investment trusts, from the Brazilian Real Estate Manager, RBR, which closed yesterday and is expected to add approximately $1.3 billion of permanent capital real estate investment trust assets in Brazil. We are now the largest manager of listed REITs in Brazil with a pro forma fee earning AUM of approximately $5.7 billion, a market in which we believe scale provides significant competitive advantages. Also, just yesterday, we announced an agreement to acquire WP Global Partners, a U.S.-based lower middle market private equity solutions manager with $1.8 billion of fee earning AUM as of the third quarter 2025, which will enhance our global capabilities in our global private markets solutions business.
Pro forma for the acquisition, our GPMS global private markets solutions, fee earning AUM is approximately $13.6 billion. Our total fee earning AUM of $41 billion as of the fourth quarter 2025 rose 5% sequentially and 24% year-over-year. Pro forma for the announced acquisitions, our fee earning AUM at year-end is approximately $47.4 billion, putting us in a strong position to achieve our year-end 2027 target of [ $70 billion ]. We are also pleased to share that our energy trading platform, Tria, which has experienced strong growth since its launch in 2024 and contributed with $4 million to our 2025 distributable earnings signed a definite agreement with Raizen to acquire its energy trading arm, Raizen Power. Upon completion of the transaction, Tria is expected to become one of the largest independent energy trading companies in Brazil.
Finally, adding to our current approved share buyback program of 3 million shares of which we have already acquired $1.5 million in the third quarter 2025, our Board just approved an additional 3 million share buyback program. On top, further illustrating Patria's partners' alignment with our business, of which we already own approximately 60% and our belief in Patria's unique position to continue its growth path, we, [ Mattress Partners ] through our holding company, PHL, I'm happy to announce our intention to purchase up to 2.5 million PAX shares. Summing it all up we can now purchase up to 7 million shares to return capital to our shareholders.
Now let's take a closer look into the quarter and the year, starting with fundraising. The $1.7 billion of capital we raised in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the $7.7 billion we raised for the full year do not include any acquisition and were driven by continued demand for our infrastructure, credit, real estate and GPMS strategies. Our fundraising in 2025 exceeded the initial $6 billion target we set back at our Investor Day in December 2024 as well as the revised target of $6.6 billion was set in the third quarter of 2025, while we are leaving our 2026 and 2027 fundraising targets at $7 billion and $8 billion, unchanged for now. Our success in leveraging the investments we have been making in our platforms and distribution capabilities, increases our confidence in our ability to meet and hopefully exceed our targets.
Now turning to the fundraising performance of specific asset classes. As the leading infrastructure investor in Latin America, we continue to see increased global interest in this fast-growing asset class as we raised approximately $2.3 billion for our infrastructure strategies in 2025, led by the final closing of our infrastructure development fund [indiscernible] and various fee-paying SMAs and co-investment vehicles. This was approximately 5x what we raised for infrastructure in 2024 and we see no letup in demand for these strategies from both global investors as exemplified by the recently announced $2 billion data center projects led by one of our drawdown funds in partnership with [indiscernible] and increasingly local investors.
Next, GPMS raised almost $2 billion in 2025, continuing to highlight the strong support from our clients and our success in integrating this business into our platform. The recently announced agreement to acquire WP Global Partners with approximately $1.8 billion of fee earning AUM, we expect will further strengthen investor demand for our solutions strategies over time as it enhances our investment capabilities in the United States. Credit also had another strong year, fund raising a record $1.8 billion of capital, handily surpassing the $1 billion to $4 billion raised in 2024, which was itself a record. Continued strong investment performance combined with the addition of Solid and its robust private credit capabilities further enhances the capital-raising prospects of our credit platform.
On that note, let me give a little more color on how we see the private credit opportunity in Brazil. The total Brazilian credit market reached $1.7 trillion in 2024 with $800 billion estimated to represent the addressable market opportunity for asset-backed nonbank private credit, of which around $200 billion is already currently served through private credit vehicles mainly CLOs. CLOs which AUM in Brazil exceeded $150 billion as of September 2025 have been the fastest-growing asset management strategy in the country, having grown at a 30% plus CAGR compounded annual growth rate since 2019. This growth is supported by multiple structural drivers, including, but not limited to: favorable regulation, banking disintermediation, tax incentives and broader financial deepening and growing interest in the CLO structure amongst investors. With the acquisition of a majority stake in [indiscernible], Patria significantly enhances its capabilities and scale in this very attractive market.
Finally, even within a high interest rate environment, we see building momentum in our real estate business. Our real estate strategies raised over $520 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 including over $260 million through a follow-on offering in our Brazilian logistics REITs and over $180 million in our funds in Colombia. As the largest manager of REIT assets in Brazil and one of the largest in Colombia with over $8 billion of pro forma permanent capital fee earning AUM, we believe our substantial scale in this business is a significant competitive advantage when it comes to attracting investor capital, and we are excited with the opportunities this business has to offer heading into 2026. Of course, fundraising alone does not drive growth in fee-earning AUM and management fees. And we are proud to report that redemptions decreased by approximately 25% in 2025 versus 2024, a clear reflection of our strong investment performance across our verticals.
Our ability to grow our fee earning AUM is further enhanced by the stickiness of our asset base, given that approximately 90% is in vehicles with no or limited redemptions, including 22% or $9.1 billion of fee earning AUM in permanent capital vehicles. Our strong fundraising coupled with low redemption rates and a sticky asset base is translating into solid net organic growth as we generated approximately $2.4 billion of organic net inflows into fee earning AUM in 2025, representing an organic growth rate of about 7%. We see additional room for our organic growth rates to increase further in the years ahead as we plan to grow our base of attractive products in sticky structures. In addition, with over 50% of our management fees charged on NAV or market value, our strong investment performance continues to be an important growth driver, contributing approximately $3 billion to our fee earning AUM.
Combined organic net inflows and the positive impact of investment performance added over $5.3 billion to our fee earning AUM in 2025. The impact of FX throughout the year was also positive, adding $2 billion to our fee-paying asset base. Finally, the acquisition of the Brazilian reach discussed during our last earnings call, and concluded in the second quarter of 2025, contributed with $600 million. Summing it all together, our fee earning AUM in the fourth quarter of 2025 reached $40.8 billion, up 24% or $7.9 billion year-over-year. Pro forma for recently announced acquisitions, our fee earning AUM is now at $47.4 billion.
It is also important to highlight that as we expand our business A large portion of the capital we raised will only flow into fee earning AUM as capital is [indiscernible]. Our fourth quarter 2025 pending fee-earning AUM totaled about $2.9 billion, further highlighting our future fee-earning AUM and management fee growth potential. Our fee-earning AUM growth is also reflected in the diversification of our business. Pro forma for recent acquisitions, our fee-earning AUM base is well diversified across our asset classes with 29% in GPMS, 26% in credit, 19% in real estate, 12% in private equity, 9% in infrastructure and 6% in public equities. Patria today has over 35 investment strategies with more than 100 products with no single product representing more than 8% of our pro forma fee-earning AUM. Our largest fund, which is a corporate credit LatAm high-yield fund, has approximately $3.8 billion in AUM and has delivered an impressive 13.1% net compounded annualized return since inception in 2022 and as of the fourth quarter 2025.
Our corporate credit LatAm high-yield strategy more broadly, which started back in 2000, currently has an aggregate AUM of over $5 billion. And as of the fourth quarter 2025 has outperformed its benchmark for every single period, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years and since inception. With the since inception, net compounded annualized return of 11.1%, exceeding the benchmark by more than 360 basis points. In terms of geography, approximately 1/3 of our assets are invested in Brazil, 1/3 in other Latin American countries and 1/3 in developed markets across Europe and the United States. With regards to our investor base, our sources of capital are also diversified across geographies with approximately 27% of our AUM coming from Europe and the Middle East, 31% from Latin America, excluding Brazil, 16% from North America, 18% from Brazil and 9% from the Asia Pacific region.
Looking at our foreign exchange exposure, over 60% of our fee earning AUM is denominated in a diversified basket of hard currencies, mainly the U.S. dollar and not exposed to soft currency fluctuations.
Finally, as I mentioned before, approximately 90% of our pro forma fee-earning AUM is in vehicles with no or limited redemptions including 22% or $9.1 billion of fee-earning AUM in permanent capital vehicles. These points further highlight the quality of our fee-paying asset base and the predictability and long duration of our management fees. Finally, we're also expanding the number of flagship drawdown funds into new strategies and asset classes, including infrastructure development, infrastructure credit, private active buyouts, growth equity, venture capital, private credit, real estate development, secondaries, co-investment vehicles, among others. All of these products will be eligible to generate performance fees, highlighting the potential for even greater diversification of our performance fee earnings stream.
Now our strong fee-earning AUM growth is translating into robust growth in fee-related earnings. In the fourth quarter 2025, we reported fee-related earnings of $64.2 million, representing 30% sequential and 17% year-over-year growth, also supported by our margin expansion of 5% versus the third quarter 2025 and 5% versus 1 year ago, reflecting our success in integrating acquisitions and the growing scale of our business. For the full year, fee-related earnings reached $202.5 million, up 19% and in line with our guidance. On a per share basis, fee-related earnings of $0.41 in the fourth quarter 2025 rose 30% sequentially and 14% year-over-year. Full year fee-related earnings per share was $1.28, a 15% year-over-year increase. Given our strong fundraising momentum and fee-earning AUM growth outlook, we remain confident in meeting our 2026 fee-related earnings targets of $225 million to $245 million or $1.42 to $1.54 per share. In addition to our target of $260 million to $290 million or $1.60 to $1.80 per share.
As a reminder, our fee-related earnings targets are inclusive of already announced and prospective M&A. We reported [ $78.5 million ] of distributable earnings in the fourth quarter and $200.9 million for the full year. On a per share basis, this was $0.50 and $1.27, respectively. In addition to the very strong fee-related earnings growth we highlighted earlier, distributable earnings also benefited from multiple monetization events in our Infrastructure Fund III. As we announced last quarter, our share count the fourth quarter 2025 remain at 158 million shares. In connection with performance-related earnings, I think it is important to address the decrease in our net accrued performance fees, primarily due to private buyouts Fund V falling out of carry. As this particular fund's performance is close to its hurdle rates and given its European car structure, foreign exchange and the price of public holdings can drive private equity buyout Fund V in and out of carry frequently.
However, as we look more deeply into our business, we are optimistic in our ability to generate future performance fees as we believe we remain on track to deliver our performance-related earnings target range of $120 million to $140 million from the fourth quarter 2024 to the end of 2027. We have already realized $62 million of performance-related earnings against our target, an Infrastructure Fund III, which is generating cash carry and had approximately $19 million of net accrued carry remaining as of year-end is expected to generate performance fees in 2026. Private active buyouts Fund VI which is a 2019 vintage and has over $210 million of net accrued carry is fully invested and entering its monetization phase. We have several newer strategies in growth and ventures that have performed well. And while still early days, already have about $7 million of net accrued carry, a balance that we would expect to grow over the coming years.
For both private equity and infrastructure, an increasing proportion of our growing co-investment assets are carry eligible which has the potential to generate performance fees on a deal-by-deal basis. In addition, as I mentioned, we have an expanding range of drawdown funds across our asset classes eligible to generate performance fees. To summarize, I want to reinforce that we believe that we are on track to deliver on our performance-related earnings target range of $120 million to $140 million from the fourth quarter 2024 to the end of 2027. With $62 million already realized approximately $20 million expected in 2026, mainly from our infrastructure development Fund III and the remaining balance expected to be realized in 2027 from multiple funds.
Before I conclude, a quick note on macro. From our perspective, the macro events both globally and within the region favor the drivers of our business. These long-term drivers, such as the financial deepening across Latin America, deregulation and pension reforms in large economies in the region, increased allocations to alternatives robust demand for infrastructure investing, potentially lower interest rates on the back of declining inflation and better fiscal prospects, a consequence of more market-friendly governments being elected in the region continue to drive demand from both local and global investors. If anything, the current geopolitical scenario, coupled with a weaker U.S. dollar and attractive underground trends are fueling increased interest in Latin America from a broadening range of investors. Incidentally, that is what capital markets showed in 2025 and also year-to-date with the region outperforming in many asset classes.
With that as a backdrop, we think it is important for investors to keep in mind that we have close to 40 years of investing experience navigating the various economic and political cycles in the region. This experience, combined with a greater diversification and resilience of our business, in our view, make us uniquely positioned to capitalize on both the increased investor interest in the region and the wide range of investment opportunities we see. Again, we are excited about the fundraising and fee-related earnings momentum we have been building momentum, which is supported by our increasing scale and capabilities across an expanding range of strategies. We believe our long-term opportunity and outlook remain bright and none of this would be possible without the dedication and capabilities of our team members, for which I am very proud and grateful.
On a final note, I want to comment on organizational and structural changes we have announced in recent months. First, I would like to thank our CFO, Chief Financial Officer, Ana Russo. Ana approached me about a year ago with her plan to step down from her current corporate role as Patria's CFO to focus the next stage of her career on advisory and nonexecutive roles and projects. We are sorry to see Ana leave, and I want to thank her for all her hard work and contribution in the past several years. But we are glad that we will continue our relationship in several fronts as, for example, with our current position as a Board member of Patria Moneda Asset Management in Chile. I wish Ana the best of luck as she charts a new career path.
Following an extensive review process, we announced that Raphael Denadai, Currency Packages Partner and CFO of portfolio management, with over 25 years of experience, we'll assume the role of Patria's CFO effective in April 2026. Ana, who will remain in her position until then, we'll provide more color on the transition in her prepared remarks. In addition, as we announced back in December 2025 to further strengthen our corporate structure in order to drive operational excellence and better support Patria's strategic execution at scale, Patria recently created the role of Global Chief Operating Officer and was pleased to introduce Nikitas Psyllakis as our new global COO. Nikitas joined Patria from DWS Group, bringing over 20 years of extensive global experience in financial services, having led strategic planning, operational transformation and regulatory initiatives. With that, I would like to once again welcome Nikitas and Raphael to their new roles.
Now let me turn the call over to Ana to review our financial results in more detail. Thank you, Ana.
Thank you, Alex, for the kind words, and good morning, everyone. Indeed, its quite rewarding to close out 2025 with $7.7 billion of organic fund raising exceeding by a large margin, our previously upwardly revised full year target of $6.6 billion by more than $1 billion. We expect the strong fundraising momentum and fee-earning AUM growth for 2025 to continue as we enter the second year of our current 3-year plan and are even more confident of our ability to achieve our objectives for 2026 and 2027.
Before I review our financials in more detail, I would like to take a moment to speak about my transition from the CFO role. Stepping down as a Project CFO with a deeply personal decision driven by my desire to dedicate the next stage of my career to advisory and no executive position, [indiscernible] where I believe I can contribute to a different organization given my diverse background. I will continue serving as a Board member of Patria Moneda Asset Management in Chile and remain fully committed to Patria as a CFO through the end of April. Over the next few months, my focus will be on delivering all 2025 annual reports and regulatory obligations, supporting our new auditor, KPMG, as they complete their first annual audit and most importantly, ensuring a smooth and effective transition to Raphael Denadai. I'm extremely proud of how Patria has evolved during my 3.5-year [ dinner ] as CFO, and I'm confident that my colleague, Raphael will do an excellent job and supported by a strong and committed team.
Let's review our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results in more detail. Our full year organic fundraising of $7.7 billion was an important step to deliver our cumulative 3-year plan of $21 billion of total fundraising that we communicated at our 2024 Investor Day. Our success this year demonstrates that the strategic investments we made across our investment platforms, products and distribution capabilities are paying off. We entered 2026 with greater visibility and unwavering confidence in our ability and our path to achieve our objectives for this year and next. Our fee AUM rose 24% year-over-year and 5% sequentially to $40.8 billion. The strong year-over-year growth reflects mainly the combination of solid organic net inflows of $2.4 billion and the positive contribution from our strong investment in performance in addition to a positive FX impact and the acquisition of several Brazilian REITs concluded in the second quarter of 2025.
As Alex mentioned, our fee earning AUM growth continues to highlight our spending fundraising capabilities and deployment opportunities coupled with the stickiness and resilience of our asset base. Pending fee-earning AUM of $2.9 billion, combined with our fundraising goals, the 22% of fee-earning AUM that are in current capital vehicles, the almost 35% of fee-earning AUM winning drawdown funds with an average life of 6 years and an overall stickiness of our asset base altogether, highlight our ongoing ability to generate net organic AUM growth over time. Total fee revenue in the fourth quarter reached $101 million, up 8% year-over-year and about 19% sequentially. For the full year, total fee revenue reached $344 million, an increase of 14% versus 1 year ago. Our management fee rate averaged 92 basis points over the trailing 4 quarters. As reviewed at our December 9, 2024, Investor Day, we are steadily diversifying our business and introducing new investment strategies and product structures, which are key drivers of our growth.
Consequently, our management fee rate will continue to evolve and we expect our fee rate to trend towards approximately 90 basis points over the coming quarters, but with the potential to vary depending on the mix.
Looking into our expense line. Operating expenses, which include personnel and G&A expenses totaled approximately $36.1 million in the quarter, up 5% sequentially and down 4% year-over-year. We remain focused on controlling expenses and capturing operating efficiencies even as we continue to invest in the business. For the full year, operating expenses totaled $141.6 million up 8% versus 2024, mainly driven by new acquisitions and salary increase inflation adjustment, partially offset by realized operating efficiencies. As we look ahead to 2026, excluding the impact of acquisitions, total expenses in the fourth quarter are good starting point as we entered [indiscernible].
Putting it all together, Patria delivered fee-related earnings of $64.3 million in the quarter, up 17% versus prior year and 30% sequentially with an FRE margin that role approximately 5% [indiscernible] versus Q4 '24 and sequentially to 63.6%. We remind everyone that the fourth quarter is often our strongest quarter in terms of FRE margin driven by the recognition of most of our high-margin incentive fees from our credit and public equity part for, which totaled $11.3 million in the quarter. For the full year 2025, we generated $202.5 million of fee-related earnings, up 19% year-over-year, in line with our guidance.
As Alex mentioned, we continue to expect to generate $225 million to $245 million of FRE in 2026, and we remain confident that we are on path to deliver on our 2027 FRE target of $260 million to $290 million, with an FRE margin objective of 58% to 60%. While our recent M&A may exert short-term pressures of FRE margins, our spending scale and ability to realize operating efficiencies keep us confident that we can meet our FRE margin objectives for 2026 and 2027 of 58% to 60%.
As noted on our last call, in Q4 2025, we had multiple monetization events in our Infrastructure Fund III, which generated $19.6 million of performance-related earnings in the fourth quarter. We continue to expect Infrastructure III, which had approximately $19 million of net accrued performance fees at the quarter end to continue its realization through 2026. Our total net accrued performance fee decreased from $402 million in the third quarter '25 to $249 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, mainly driven by private equity Fund V falling out of carry, driven by the price of public listed companies and FX.
For reference purposes, if we consider the FX rate and the price of the public holdings by end of January, net accrued performance fees for Fund V would have been around $40 million. As we look more deeply into our business and as detailed by Alex, we are optimistic about our ability to generate future performance fees from multiple funds. Next, our net financial and other income and expenses in fourth quarter '25 total a positive $1.8 million versus Q4 '24, mainly due to lower average debt and higher contribution from See, our energy trading platform. Sequentially, net financial income and other expenses were up of $0.8 million versus third quarter '25, mainly reflecting a lower contribution from Tria. What it can vary sharply quarter-to-quarter, it's worth noting that in 2025, Tria contributed approximately $4 million to Patria, and we are very excited regarding the long-term potential of this business. and hope to share more updates on the development of this business over the course of 2026.
At the end of the quarter, net debt totaled approximately $105 million is slightly below the $108 million for the third quarter '25 as we did not have any meaningful M&A payments in the quarter. Our net debt to FRE ratio of 0.5 was well below our long-term guidance of 1x deferred M&A-related cash payment through 2028 currently total approximately $110 million, excluding potential earnout. As highlighted in previous earnings calls, during third quarter, we entered a total return or TRS with a financial institution through which 1.5 million shares were purchased on our behalf. We expect to settle the TRS by Q3 2026 at which point, the share will be transferred to Patria and subsequently retired.
I would like to take the opportunity to recap our capital management strategy based on our strong cash generation and conversion of distributable earnings. First, we increased our dividend by $0.05 per share for 2026, resulting in an expected dividend payment of $100 million. Second, we will target around 3 million shares repurchased to offset dilution from stock-based compensation and any M&A transaction settled in shares. For this purpose, we may again consider the use of total return swaps, which have proven to be a cost-effective capital management tool. With regard to current M&A, we expect funding to come primarily from cash. Also as of December 31, our 2026 deferring contingent payments totaled approximately $100 million, of which about 80% is expected to be paying cash.
To highlight our ample ability to fund our growth and maintain a healthy dividend, let's look at a simple math. Based on the midpoint of our 2026 FRA guidance and expected period, we estimate our cash generation in 2026 will be approximately $220 million. So detracting our dividend, payment of TRS and the current deferred and contingent payments noted before will still leave us with the capacity to fund CapEx and additional M&A when considering our cash generation and our total unused debt capacity of over $100 million. Of note, our total current net debt capacity is about $235 million or onetime IFRS compared to the $105 million at year-end, which is very conservative as industry standards.
All the above underscores the strength of our financial position to support growth initiatives and maintain strategic optionality for our shareholders. Our effective tax rate in the fourth quarter '25 was 4.2%, excluding performance fees, which is usually crystallized in the tax favorable jurisdiction. The effective rate was 5.6%, which represents a 120 basis point improvement versus Q4 '24 on a comparable basis. The reduction was mainly driven by tax credits on our U.K. entities. On a full year basis, excluding performance fees, the effective tax rate reached 6.3% with [ 108 ] basis points lower than 2024. Looking ahead, we continue to expect our annual tax rate to average around 10%.
In the fourth quarter, we generated $78.5 million of distributor earnings or $0.50 per share. For the full year, distributor earnings were $200.9 million or $1.27 per share representing a 6% year-over-year growth from $189.2 million in 2024 with a strong FRE growth more than offsetting lower performance-related earnings and the higher share count. While FRE and are important financial metrics, I would like to give you some additional color on line items that impact our net income. In 2025, net income totaled $85.6 million, which is up 19% versus $71.9 million in 2024. The increase of $13.6 million is mainly driven by distributor earnings growth and lower deferred contingent consideration, partially offset by higher than originally anticipated equity-based compensation reflecting better performance, lower employee turnover and expansion of the program. We give more color on the equity-based comp and other line items during our first quarter call.
We finished the quarter with 158 million shares, unchanged from the prior quarter. We did not repurchase any share in the quarter and continue to expect the share count to average between 158 million and 160 million from 2025 through 2027, inclusive of our additional share repurchase. In 2025, the Board approved a share repurchase program of up to 3 million shares, of which we have utilized 1.5 million through the TRS. At our recent Board meeting, we received the approval for an additional 3 million shares to be added to the program. Finally, we declared a dividend of $0.15 per share for the fourth quarter. We remind everyone that we have updated our fixed dividend policy from $0.60 in 2025 to $0.65 per share for 2026, an increase of 8%.
Overall, we are truly encouraged by our fourth quarter results and with the momentum we are building as we continue to diversify and improve the resilience of our business. We believe we are firmly on track to achieve the various targets we have shared with you, and we are excited by the growth opportunity ahead. Thank you, everybody, to dial in, and we are now ready to answer your questions.
[Operator Instructions] And our first incomes from Craig Siegenthaler of Bank of America.
2. Question Answer
So first question is on private equity valuation process. We've had some recent inbound on the topic, so I thought we could kind of clean it up here. Private Equity Funds IV and V, they're both pre-2016 vintage funds, they both have a significant amount of unrealized value. So I was wondering if you could talk about your internal valuation process, how it works and also how those valuations are validated by third parties.
Okay. Thank you very much, Craig. Thanks for your question. On the valuation process, we are -- in summary, we use industry practice, industry common valuation process for our private access drawdown funds and our infrastructure funds, all of our drawdown funds we -- once a year, we have an independent appraiser to value the funds. We normally use a recognized independent appraiser that does the valuation with year-end numbers, in this case, end of 2025. This independent appraisal works with the management team, teams of the respective portfolio company going through a whole understanding of the business, understanding of the next 3 to 5 years and future prospects of the business and more of a technical discounted cash flow model as it is common in the industry for these kinds of valuations.
And then this valuation, of course, is compared with multiples and compared with industry multiples, peers. If there are no comparable listed peers, whatever. So it's not for the main methodology is a discounted flow. And of course, the end result is compared with peers, valuations, listed, nonlisted M&A transactions, et cetera, et cetera. As it is what I'm saying is completely normal for these kind of valuations in the industry. And what we do is actually we then -- they give us a range and then we value within the range, we actually marked the company's one by one. That's what we do. And during the year, we don't really do much. We just actually have the valuation during the year quarter-by-quarter, be adjusted by the cost of capital of that specific business and adjust the valuation is something major happens, like we sell part of the business or we merge or whatever would be or something really went goes wrong, like COVID or something like that, whatever.
But if there's no major changes, I don't -- we really don't like and we are advised not really to keep changing the valuation because if nothing major happens with that specific business during the year. We just then adjust the valuation by, again, the cost of capital until we go through that process, all that process again at the end of the subsequent year. So again, we have been doing this for since inception, right, our first product active fund was back in '97. It's going to be 30 years, not 29 years as of now. We know that because it's going to be -- this year is going to be our annual meeting with investors #29, and we do one a year. So it's 29 years ago, we did our first one, and we've been doing this kind of valuation for the businesses since then. We check with the industry practices now and again, and the industry practices continue to be more or less what I just mentioned, but it's different.
And I think there's sometimes confusion when we -- if we are -- when we charging management fees and performance fees, et cetera. Now we do not charge management fees on NAV for the drawdown funds. So the valuation is an indicative value because it doesn't mean much for our revenues. It doesn't mean anything for our revenues because we charge on costs -- so if we did invest $100 in that business, and that business now is valued at $150 or $50, we continue charging on $100 until we sell the business. So the valuation does not affect our management fees. Number two, we do not run performance fees, unrealized performance fees through our P&L. So if we have more performance fee and more unrealized performance fees or less unrealized performance fees, all the numbers that you just heard me say about our 2025 financials and Ana Russo say, about 2025 financials does not affect any little bit, okay? It's no effect whatsoever because we do not run our performance fees through our P&L.
Our team, our employees are not incentivized by unrealized performance fees. They do not receive a bonus on unrealized performance fees. So if the valuation is 1, 2, 3 or 4, 10 or 0, their bonus is exactly the same. We only run the performance fees through our P&L. We only recognize performance fees if they are paid, if they're paid, cash in the bank. And then we recognize as revenues and then we calculate the bonuses of our employees, and we paid a couple of quarters later. So it's even a negative working capital here the firm versus the employees on paying performance fees. Now we don't anticipate any performance fees as bonus before we actually get the cash, okay? And we got the money in the bank account.
So we do actually give the number of unrealized performance fees as an off-balance sheet number. Now completely off balance sheet is unrealized. And as you probably saw, for the December 2025 numbers, we have around $250 million of unrealized performance fees and we gave the guidance that we kind of -- we should generate around $120 million to $140 million of performance fees from the last quarter of 2024, all the way to the end of 2027. We already realized 60 plus. We have another $60 million to go, $60 million. And there's a -- I think the most -- the highest probability fund that will generate performance fees continues to be Infrastructure Fund III for 2026. We just gave the guide that we think we're going to generate another $20 million for 2026. And there are so many other strategies that today we have in our menu of products that generate performance lease venture capital, growth equity, private debt, opportunistic real estate, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, all of them should then generate more fees that we should actually make us hit the target by the end of 2027.
So this is what we do. Again, it's industry practice. We try to be as conservative as possible, but we get a valuation range from the appraiser. No, we normally don't -- of course, we talk to the appraiser about the valuation process. But what we do is like we try to put in the middle of the range, and that's how we use the -- that's the exercise of how we actually mark our companies. I think it's -- again, it's -- this is -- again, you are -- you know the industry very well. And sometimes, you might compare the valuation of a company with another company that you might know well in another industry in another country, another situation, one company is doing better. The other company is doing worse, one company is this, one companies is that, one company has more debt, less debt. Has -- it's very hard sometimes for you took one single asset with another single asset. Of course, it's hard for us to also be able to have individual opinions because we follow the valuation of the independent appraising, okay?
So this is what we do. And yes, our Private Equity Fund IV, as you know, has been underperforming. And now we have Private Equity Fund V also not generating performance fees. So no 2 funds that as of the end of 2025, we don't expect performance fees coming from these 2 funds. And this is also already reflected in all of our numbers. So when we gave our projections guidance for '25, '26, '27, at the end of 2024, we had a [indiscernible] with '25, '26, '27 projections. As you can see from that presentation, we had asset class by asset class projection. And you can see that we were conservative in capital raising for private equity, given that Private Equity Fund IV, V are underperforming and we were more optimistic and realistic about fundraising for the other asset classes. So again, if you look at how much money we raise in 2025, $7.7 billion surpassing by 30%, our initial guidance of $6 billion, 30% more than our initial guidance is a substantial increase in which asset classes in credit, in real estate and in GPMS, global private market solutions.
So we were not expecting to raise in 2025, more money for the private exit asset class vertical. We were expecting to raise from other asset classes. Not only we did, we surpassed in total by 30% of our initial guidance. We gave a guidance for 2026 of $7 billion organic fundraising in 2027 for $8 billion, and we raised $7.7 billion in 2025. So I think we are in a strong position to continue delivering the guidance and hopefully even exceeding. So I hope I answered your question there.
I do have a follow-up also on private equity. But if you look at the MSCI Brazil index, of listed public equities. Brazil has been very strong. As you know, it's returned 55% over the last 12 months, outperforming the S&P 500 in the U.S. by about 40%. Interest rates are expected to decline in Brazil. All this should benefit public equities, private equities, your realization pipeline. So can you talk about the prospects for both IPOs and strategic exits in private equity in 2026. And I assume exits to other private equity firms are still quite limited at this moment given the lack of competition of Brazil.
Yes. Thank you very much. Yes, I think normally, I'm generalizing again here, sorry to generalize, listed traded securities did anticipate trends. And in this case, I think the upward trend that you just mentioned, we did see through the 2025 numbers of listed securities. And the MSCI is one of them. As you mentioned, appreciating substantially in 2025 in local currency and in U.S. dollars. Of course, the U.S. dollar weakened against some of the local currency. So that's helped the U.S. dollar also base return. That normally translates into private securities with time. It is not from Monday to Tuesday, but a whole enthusiasm with the region and investors start buying assets, which they can and the listed ones are the ones that they have more access because they're listed, of course.
And the private assets come in due time. And that's exactly what we're seeing and a lot of exits from both our infrastructure and private equity funds programmed infrastructure coming first. Basically, all of the assets of our Infrastructure Fund II were sold already. All of the assets of our Infrastructure III sold most of the assets in Infrastructure Fund III. So we're getting into the mode of beginning to realize the investments of Infrastructure Fund IV. Same in private equity, I think focusing in selling the assets of private equity for IV and V. Private Equity Fund IV as we do invest -- we did invest mostly in health care, it was affected also by COVID, companies there are recovering. And interest in private equity Fund V, we have invested also in health care, also investing in other sectors and Private Equity VI and VII, VI fully invested, VII being invested now should begin to come into realization.
Also, we have the growth equity funds, which are also private equity. Now we just mentioned about the private buyout funds, but we have private equity growth funds. Private equity growth fund #1, which is a single-asset fund which was managed by [ Kamado ] being the asset manager that we did partner with acquire a couple of years ago, is a company in the pet care space, but it's doing extremely well, and that's a prospect for a sale and IPO as well. We also see private equity growth for number 2 with already 2 realizations, 1 partial realization, 1 full realization of an education company was the full realization. And we see other prospects coming along of the more realizations this year and in 2026. And we also see our private active venture fund with significant and important realizations in '25 and other realizations coming into 2026. One of the notorious realizations that we did of our private active venture fund #3 was a company called Avenue, which is basically a brokerage house targeted for Brazilians willing to open a cash account or a bank account in U.S. dogs, and it was acquired by Itau was a very, very, very good deal for us. So not only now the private active buyout strategies that are posed to generate performance fees, our private equity growth funds, our private equity venture funds, our infrastructure development funds, our real estate opportunistic funds that we have in Colombia, that is also right for realizations. Our real estate opportunistic funds in Chile that also are right for realizations and generate and will generate performance fees in the future. And now with other funds like private debt that we raised private debt LatAm, #1, also fully invested short duration should generate performance fees in the future, and we are currently in the road raising private debt number two.
So again, I think we're excited about the prospects, but boil everything down, we're expecting $60 million of performance fees over the next 2 years. 20 should come from Infrastructure Fund III. Our presentation shows that we have an inventory as of December 2025 of approximately $250 million of performance fees. So $60 million out of $250 million, it goes to 20%, 20-something percent. So if we realize 20-something percent of that $249 million, $250 million of performance fees that we showed as of now in our December 2025 numbers, we should then be able to hit the guidance that we gave for the next 2 years.
Of course, no major caveats. Performance fees depends on so many things. It depends on the macro situation, it depends on the political situation. So I'm just saying this macro caveat here. I think when I look into management fees, the preservability and predictability of our management fee is given the 22% of PM is no permanent capital structures, and we have long-dated drawdown funds, 90% of our funds are in drawdown funds or permanent capital, I can say with more confidence that our predictability of our management fees, and therefore, our FRE is more visible. Everything that I said about performance fees, there's a big question mark because things going to happen and companies can perform better or worse as the macro situation can get better or worse. The U.S. dollar can strengthen and weaken. So therefore, we have a low hit ratio and I'm putting this major caveats that we might generate it, we might not as well given the or performance fees, not management fees that have already been driven by proven capital or drawdown funds in the U.K. Thank you, Greg.
And our next question comes from [ Lindsay Shama ] of Goldman Sachs.
Alex, Ana and Andre. Just wondering your -- you maintained your 2026 fundraising guidance. And because of that, it does imply slightly lower fundraising in 2026. So because of that, I just want to understand do you see any risks to fundraising? Are you maybe a little bit less optimistic? And what are really those reasons for maintaining the fundraising guidance where they are? And then on the flip side, if there's kind of any upside risk to that guidance? And then on that note, if you could just mention how much of your fundraising is coming from your own fund of funds and how that plays into your fundraising?
Lindsay, thanks for the question, and thanks for participating in the call. No, we're just being conservative, to be honest. I think it's -- we're not -- we had a guidance we gave a 3-year plan. We want to hit the 3-year plan. And the 3-year plan that we did give out December of '24 was to raise organically $21 billion. So it would be $6 billion in 2025, which we did $7.7 billion, actual $7.7 billion versus $6 billion the guidance. And $7 billion for 2026, $8 billion for 2027, so $6 billion plus $7 billion plus $8 billion, $21 billion, our organic fundraising to hit the $70 billion of fee-earning AUM by the end of 2027, having started in the end of 2024 at around 35%. So we would double fee-earning AUM, which is 25% increase for you.
And we are extremely positive about our fundraising momentum and -- but we wanted to keep that as a $7 billion and $8 billion guidance. Nothing that really worries about that. On the contrary, we see good momentum. But we didn't see any reason for us to upsize this guidance given that it's $21 billion for the 3 years. I think we're in a good momentum to deliver the 3-year plan. But having said that, let us go through the first 1 or 2 quarters of 2026, and we're going to be in the midst of the $21 billion target. And if we feel even more confident we'll come out with a new number. Hopefully, cannot guarantee. Hopefully, it's going to be on the positive side, but that's it. It was more for conservative reasons than any other reason.
On the second part of your question, our fund of funds do not really fund our funds, to be honest. And if you drive equity and infrastructure, if that's what you're referring to, we don't see any of our -- we don't have any fund of funds investing in our buyout private equity funds, growth private equity funds, venture private equity funds. We don't have any fund of our fund of funds investing in our development infrastructure funds. We do not -- we don't have that fund of funds investing in our own funds that I can -- I don't know, Marco, any comments there. I don't think we have anything, right?
In, my only comment here and good afternoon, everyone. My only comment here is that, as Alex said, we don't have a fund of fund. We do manage the listed trust that has actually funded one of our secondary fund. The amount is $75 million. Again, a very small amount relative to the overall fundraising for last year. Just to remind, this is a vehicle that has an independent Board is a list of trust listed in the London Stock Exchange. Therefore, decisions are subject to an independent board.
Any subsequent questions, Lindsay, did we manage to answer your questions?
Yes. It was the listed vehicle that I was asking about there. And then maybe just some further color on fundraising. Are you still seeing international interest in Latin Americas region. I know Brazil has been kind of a hot topic right now. What regions are you really seeing the most interest from? And where do you expect that incremental fundraising to come from?
Yes, thank you, Lindsay. No, yes, I think we have I have been saying that I think over the last earnings, several earnings calls that we have been geographically overperforming LatAm, overperforming Asia the least. We're kind of performing at expectations in Europe, and we are underperforming in the U.S. So I've been saying that for several earnings call, that hasn't really changed much throughout the whole year 2025. We have been, again, overperforming LATAM.
In general, we have been overperforming, right? 7.7 versus the guidance of 6, 30% more. Where is it coming from? Overperforming Asia Pacific, overperforming the lease, overperforming LatAm in line with our expectations in Europe, underperforming in the U.S. And asset class wise, over performing credit, overperforming, GPMS, overperforming infrastructure in line with real estate and in line with private X. And as I mentioned, our expectations for [indiscernible] low, but were in line with our expectations. We see these geopolitical shifts in the world, benefiting LatAm we see interested interest from Asia Pacific, Middle East and LatAm itself. I think it's some of that interest in LatAm has to do with geopolitical shifts in some of the investors in these regions, allocating more to LatAm versus other parts of the world.
And I think LatAm is extremely well positioned to benefit from these trends, given the solid democracies with solid institutional frameworks, solid regulatory framework with -- if you look at the kind of balanced fiscal budgets relative to other countries in the world, of course, you can see that -- you can say that 1% or 2% there years that, but if you compare to other countries in the world in a somewhat better situation, we see also a region of the world with a high percentage of renewable energy being driving manufacturing. We have commodities, soft and hard commodities in the region. We have the region has the second largest deposit of rare earths in the world is in the region, a region that is also rich in oil and gas and also in protein and other commodities.
So it's a region that actually was in my view, underrated for so many years. And now I think it's getting -- it's placed under the sun. Optimistic about continuing to see even more resources coming to the region in the new future [indiscernible].
Our next question comes from Ricardo Buchpiguel of BTG Pactual.
Can you please provide more color on the nature of the process related to the around $100 million in litigation liabilities Patria has? And also comment about the chances of having to pay some of this value? And how are the key steps on the main mitigations on this bulk of $100 million?
All right. Ana, do you want to help me with this answer, I think specifically the litigation liability, please?
Thank you, Ricardo, for the question. I will also making sure that that's what -- the $100 million as is posted in our, I think, in our financial statement and also in [ 20-F, ] it just so that is not in our balance sheet, as you know, because we just consider and accrue if there is a possibility for considering that is losing.
So you, as part of our information, you're going to see that more than 80% of this litigation, we already -- it's going to went away in our next report and basically has as we already in the past already included in all the statements that are very no, it was not possible. It was not -- it was not a remote, but it's a problem. So it's -- we actually won, and this more than 85% is going to go in our next report. Okay. So we will see in our next report.
That's clear. And a follow-up question, we saw that there was an increase in transaction costs related to M&As. I understand that Patria has been reaccelerating the M&A agenda and some announcements were made this year. So my question is if we should expect this level of transaction costs of around $20 million, $25 million quarter in the following quarters?
Yes. Well, I can take that from a macro view, and I can answer specific about the numbers. Just again, just to go through this litigation process again. So we want a specific litigation there, Ricardo, where around approximately 85% of the number of $100 million will come out of our numbers as of beginning of 2026, okay. So that's 85% out of the $100 million there.
On transaction costs, I think we did say, I think, the market that we would have a hiatus in our acquisitions during 2025 in order to be able to show our capability to integrate the businesses that we have acquired and fundraise for the businesses that we did acquire, which I think we were spot on with the $7.7 billion that we raised does not include any acquisitions because we did not do any acquisitions at 2025. And we raised money for businesses that we had acquired in the past, like our credit business, our GPMS business, et cetera. I don't know, real estate business as well. So happy that, that happened. We had one year of hiatus.
In addition, we also mentioned that as we do integrate these acquisitions, we'll bring our FRE margins again to 58% to 60%. Now our FRE margin was close to 59% for 2025. So right in the middle of the 58%, 60% number that we gave and compared to 2024, our margins increased from around 56% to around 59% because of the integration of the business that we acquired in 2024 or earlier than that, okay?
We also mentioned that as of the end of 2025, we would like to continue our acquisitions very strategically placed. We also gave the guidance in December 2024 that we would fund raise $21 billion organically, as I mentioned here, in these days answered, but also do $18 billion of fee-paying AUM acquisitions in order to reach the $70 billion of fee-paying end by 2027. So we will come back with the acquisitions programs as we did with the acquisition of the private debt platform, private credit platform in Brazil, plus some real estate investment trusts in Brazil as well. Plus recently, we announced the signing of a global private market solutions business in the United States called WP.
So yes, I think we were back. And I think what is the guideline is the [ $18 billion ]. If you add these 3 acquisitions is around 7.5, 8. So we see that -- or we give us a guidance that we should try to buy another $10 billion of fee-paying AUM by the end of 2027. So that's -- it's the same guidance as we gave in the end of 2024, the $18 billion . I'm just subtracting what we have already acquired, around 8. So we have another 10 to go by the end of 2027. I hope I answered your question.
No, that's clear. And given that the pace of M&A should continue in line with the strategy here, should we expect still this transaction cost that impact the accounting net profit and excluded from distributable earnings, should it continue to be around like $20 million, $25 million?
Yes. Sorry. That's right. Ana, if you can comment on the number itself, please, I'm sorry. I forgot the second part of your answer.
Ricardo, as you know, this line of transaction cause including all our nonrecurring expenses, which is directly related to our M&As and also restructuring costs, as you know, the quarter specifically was accelerated because of those M&A agenda, as Alexandre mentioned, the closing of those of [indiscernible] and just signing up WP. And specifically in this quarter is a higher is higher than usual. The quarter is specifically because of the impact of those transactions and some of the specific agreements that hit -- or cost that hit the fourth quarter.
So when we look on a quarterly basis, is -- I would say this is on the high end. So you can -- it's too high to consider that is all quarters going to be around $20 million. But we are -- as we have no new M&As. When we talk about total year, we can expect to have slightly lower next year, but not in a quarterly basis, $20 million is more on the high side because of those events happening in the same quarter. I think -- I don't know if we answered your question.
That's very clear. So mainly when you are closing M&A, we should see it's more towards the level. That's very clear.
And our next question comes from Nicolas Vaysselier of BNP Paribas.
I would like to bring the discussion back to the flagship and infrastructure funds. I acknowledge this is not the bulk of your fundraising targets for the next few years. Still, I'd like to have a bit of color from your side. I mean you've managed to raise the success of funds in what was a difficult environment macro environment for the LatAm region. And I was wondering if you could tell us more about the changes in the LP base you might have had from PE Fund IV to PE Fund V and same thing on the infra and particularly the sort of free up rates you've managed to achieve from your LPs?
Nicolas, thanks for your question. Well, we have seen, in general, I think if we go back to our earlier funds and today, a shift from endowments and family offices to institutional investors in -- so if you look at the absolute value of the dollars that we raised more and more for these funds that you mentioned, the drawdown funds, private equity funds and infrastructure funds draw down private active buyout private equity growth and infrastructure development, which no value add. We see more and more institutional investors composing the absolute value of the fundraising. We can have a big number of family offices.
But in absolute value, they are contributing less and because the institutional investors comes with sizable checks, sizable checks. So that has been the trend in most of our drawdown funds, those that you just mentioned specifically, the trends are similar to ones that I described. Reoperates, they go from 40% to 60%, reoperates, I think the latest fund that we are raising drawdown is our secondary opportunity fund number V. We have reoperates above 50%. So that's the latest one. So to give you no fresh news on that. And if you go back to the funds that you mentioned, even though you mentioned private equity buyout number IV, but it's a 10-year old fund. To be honest, I forget now how -- what is the reoperate versus private equity buyout number III because it's 10, 12 years ago. But the latest funds, it's around the 40%, 60%, which I have in mind number, Nicolas.
I can get back to you off-line on the repeat of private equity buyout number IV, which I forget, given that it's not a 10-year-old fund. But the last ones that I see infrastructure develop fund number V that we closed in 2025. That's the range, 40% to 60% reap secondary opportunity for number V, we see now around 50% reoperates. So that's more or less between the 40% and 60% for the more recent funds that I have pressure in my memory, but I can go offline and look for you for the older funds, okay? If you don't mind.
And our next question comes from [ Carlos Gomez Lopez ] of HSBC.
So first, I want to congratulate, I think, Ana, for a very good presentation, [indiscernible]. A good job and good luck on your next endeavor. Specifically, on Page 21, you gave us a very good breakdown about shares outstanding and which the increase in the first quarter of '25. We [indiscernible] this is related to particular transactions as an [indiscernible]. What should we expect for the share count in the next 2 or 3 years? Where should we specifically in shareholders consider? And so when you look at the [indiscernible] evolution on Page 22, and I realize that [indiscernible] is not everything, but you have had 126 and 123, 124, in terms of 127, 125, again, what is the evolution that we should expect [indiscernible]?
Carlos, thank you for your question. And I'll ask also Ana to help you here and answer specifically on the numbers that you just mentioned. In general, we gave a guide on guidelines in the -- in our December 2024 3-year planned back day that we will have a share count of around 158 million to 160 million shares for the '25, '26 and '27 period. We have finished 2025 with 158 million shares and we project 2026 to '27 for the share count to stay within that range, around 160 million shares, around 160 million shares.
Again, a guideline that we gave in the end of 2024 for the '25, '26 and '27 period. And we have, as also we gave us a guideline, our FRE for 2026, for this year is $225 million to $245 million, with a midrange of course, of $235 million. And for 2027, $260 million to $290 million with a midrange to [ $275 million ]. So then we use these numbers and we use the share count that I gave you and to calculate the FRE per share. And Ana, do you have the specific numbers there that you can help me, please? For FRE per share for '26 and '27?
Sorry, I was [indiscernible]. Yes. I think just so understand what -- Carlos, is what you're saying. So we are -- when we look into our FRE per share. On -- sorry, it was -- we have 108 on the FRE -- sorry, you were talking about FRE per share? I'm sorry that we couldn't hear no.
Actually, your answer has been on -- sorry, appreciate and I understand that he remain metric that you use, but I was in [Technical Difficulty ].
To be honest, it's very hard to listen exactly to what you were asking. I think there was a noise in the background. So I understood the FRE, but you're saying DE. So sorry about that, Carlos, [indiscernible]. No, I'm sorry. We were not listening very well to your question. So on the DE side, what do we do is the following. We give an FRE number, which is the one that I just gave you, $225 million to $245 million for 2026. It's $160 million to $190 million for 2027.
We also gave the share count number, which is 158 million shares to 160 million shares for '26 and '27. And we also give a performance-related earnings number. We do not give a per year number because it's very hard, as I was, I think, answering one of the questions here today to pinpoint exactly which quarter, which year, that performance fees is going to be generated. So we gave a 3-year guidance. The 3-year guidance was $120 million to $140 million of performance fees. As of the end of 2025, we generated approximately $60 million, $62 million of performance fees. So for 2026 and 2027, there are $60 million to $80 million to go, okay? And we -- it's very hard again to predict exactly what quarter or what -- even 1 year. So that's why we gave a 3-year guidance. We are 1 year into the guidance. We have another 2 years ago.
If we take into the low end of the range, which is now $60 million to go of performance fees, now we predict that Infrastructure Fund III is the one that will probably generate -- the highest ability to generate performance fees. And we estimate that there is a non -- unrealized performance fees impact from $20 million. So that's $20 million out of the $60 million. And the other $40 million should come from other funds that we have several funds that are maturing to generate performance fees in several different asset classes. So we don't give specific DE per share on a quarter-by-quarter basis or year-by-year basis because of this nature of our performance fees. If I managed to answer your question.
You have answered that question. And last one, do you expect the tax rate, which is now we're going to have 5% or so to stay in those levels?
Our guidance on tax is around 10% tax rate. That's our guidance. We're currently being able to have a lower tax rate for several different reasons. One, specifically for 2025 is because we had a tax credit in the U.K., but we don't see that as a recurring tax credit for 2026, 2027. So we should, as we move into 2026, 2027 to see a 10% tax rate. Ana, do you want to comment on that as well, please?
Yes. So we're -- tax rate to impact when you look into our tax rate is also performed yet side of the performance that also impact our effective tax rate because of this revenue sometimes comes from jurisdiction, which has a favorable tax rate. So you also have to take that into consideration when compared year-over-year.
But when we look into over time and as Alexandre mentioned and I mentioned in my remarks, is actually this year was actually had a favorable impact of a credit on the U.K. And therefore, we foresee for the next 3 years that at the end of this 3-year period, would reach approximately 10%. So it's going to increase over time to reach approximately 10% as we increased revenue and income in jurisdictions and paying more tax as our mix of M&A that enters and also our revenue. So this has been our guidance and we're looking for [indiscernible].
Our next question comes from [ Fernanda Sao ] of JPMorgan.
You've been growing very aggressively on the real estate business. Could you elaborate a little bit more on the strategy here? And how dependent do you think that lower rate is to grow this business?
Thank you, Fernanda. Thanks for your question. And well, we are extremely excited with our real estate business in general, not only in Brazil, but in Lat Am. And we are the largest real estate investment trust manager in Brazil as of now and scale in this asset class does matter.
Yes, I think it's -- we've been successfully fundraising and there are several ways that we can fund raise. It is an asset class in general that is interest rate dependent. Yes, it is in general. We see that as interest rates do the raise, you have a slower pace of fundraising as interest rates start showing a trend of decreasing, which is the case of Brazil, which is -- we saw that in Chile last year, we see the fundraising increasing. So it is dependent in interest rates. When interest rates increased in Brazil, using Brazil as an example, fundraising then the pace of fundraising decrease. And vice versa now, we see that the Brazilian Central Bank will most probably reduce interest rates in Brazil this year as the yield curve also shows that and our phase-in pace at least in Brazil should increase, should increase, it should be better fundraising environment for our Brazilian real estate investment trusts.
In addition, Fernanda, what we also see, given the size of our funds in Brazil, we -- a lot of investors look to us. And of course, we are talking also proactively with investors in exchanging their assets for shares of the fund. So it's an asset exchange. If you have a portfolio of real estate and you want to exit that portfolio, maybe you don't want to sell the whole real estate 100%. You can actually get shares of the fund and you can sell 10% now, 20% then because we have large funds that do have a sizable and very reasonable daily liquidity. It's also very interesting for families when they do inheritance planning. We have one real estate or a portfolio of real estate when you have 2 or 3 sons of daughters.
Now you don't have to sell the whole thing and you don't have to give one real estate to [indiscernible], you can give shares of a fun which for inheritance purposes and planning is very, very intelligent. So we see a lot of -- not only institutional investors looking for our funds as a liquidity path exchanging their portfolio with shares of our funds. We also see families and family offices looking for our funds in order to have better family inheritance planning. So all of that together, I think we see that 2026 should be a better year in Brazil for fundraising for the real estate investment versus '25. '25 was already a good year and we already started doing this exchange of assets for shares of the fund. But I think we see even more so in 2026.
So yes, I think excited about that asset class. And I think that as to our enthusiasm with fundraising for 2026 for another. Hope I answered your question.
I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn it back to Alex Saigh for any closing remarks.
Great. Thank you very much for your patience in keeping on with us for long 1.5 hour here and your support is very much appreciated. I hope to see all of you in person during the year. I think there are several conferences that we already invited, and thank you very much for the invitation, and here we go. No hope to continue delivering as we are extremely confident in our numbers, and we started the year with a very strong momentum. And hopefully, that momentum is going to translate into even better fundraising that we gave the guidance and there also fee AUM and revenues, et cetera. Have a good day. Bye-bye.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.
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Patria Investments — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Patria Investments — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Fee‑earning AUM: $40.8 Mrd. per Q4 2025 (+24% YoY); pro forma für angekündigte Akquisitionen $47.4 Mrd.
- Fundraising: $1.7 Mrd. Q4; $7.7 Mrd. für 2025 (Ziel zuvor $6,6/$6 Mrd. deutlich übertroffen).
- Fee‑related Earnings (FRE): $64.2 Mio. Q4; $202.5 Mio. FY (+19% YoY).
- Distributable Earnings: $78.5 Mio. Q4; $200.9 Mio. FY; DEPS $1.27.
- FRE‑Margin: 63.6% Q4 (Quartalsspitze, getrieben durch Incentive‑Fees).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- M&A‑Strategie: Akquisitionen von Solis (51% Private Credit BR), RBR‑REITs und WP Global (US GPMS) sollen Credit/REITs/GPMS‑Fähigkeiten stärken und AUM pro forma deutlich erhöhen.
- Wachstumsfokus: Betonung auf organischem Fundraising, Ausbau von Infrastruktur, Credit und GPMS; Ziel weiterhin $70 Mrd. Fee‑AUM Ende 2027 (pro forma Schritt zu diesem Ziel).
- Kapitalmanagement: Dividende erhöht (2026 $0.65 p.a.), Buyback bis zu 7 Mio. Aktien (inkl. PHL‑Absicht), TRS‑Programm zur Verwässerungsreduktion).
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- FRE 2026: Ziel $225–245 Mio. (per share $1.42–1.54); 2027 Ziel $260–290 Mio., FRE‑Margin Ziel 58–60%.
- Fundraising 2026/27: Ziele unverändert bei $7 Mrd. (2026) und $8 Mrd. (2027) im 3‑Jahresplan.
- Performance Fees: Ziel $120–140 Mio. (Q4 2024–Ende 2027); bereits realisiert ~$62 Mio.; ca. $20 Mio. erwartet 2026 (v.a. Infrastructure III).
- Kapazität & Liquidität: Nettoverbindlichkeiten ~ $105 Mio.; ungenutzte Kreditkapazität > $100 Mio.; M&A‑Finanzierung primär bar.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- PE‑Bewertungen: Management erläuterte jährlichen Bewertungsprozess mit unabhängigen Gutachtern (Discounted‑Cash‑Flow, Peer‑Vergleich); unrealised carry wird nicht in P&L oder Boni vor Realisierung gebucht.
- Fundraising‑Risiken: Management bleibt konservativ bei Guidances; Momentum stark, Regionale Nachfrage v.a. aus APAC, Nahost und Lateinamerika.
- Rechtliche & Transaktionskosten: Litigation‑Vorbehalt ~ $100 Mio. (Management sagt >85% wird bereinigt); Q4 erhöhte Transaktionskosten durch M&A, aber nicht als dauerhaftes Quartalsniveau erwartet.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Starke Fundraising‑ und AUM‑Dynamik plus gezielte M&A stützen Wachstumsstory; Guidance bleibt konservativ, Kapitalrückführungen stärken Aktionärsrendite. Unsicherheit bei Performance‑Fees und kurzfristiger Bewertungs‑/Realisierungs‑Timing bleibt Hauptrisiko.
Patria Investments — Special Call - Patria Investments Limited
1. Management Discussion
Hello, everyone. I'm Andre Medina. I lead Patria Shareholder Relations, and welcome to the fourth edition of our PAX Talks on macroeconomics, Investing Amidst Ugly Geopolitics. This will be a fireside chat Q&A format. So you're welcome to submit your questions. If we're not able to, if we don't have the time to answer your questions live, we'll get back to you via e-mail.
Before we start, I have to read the forward-looking statement. So I would like to remind everyone that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain, do not guarantee future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Patria assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on current management expectations and involve risks, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our latest Form 20-F annual report.
Also note no statements on this call constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any interest in any Patria fund. As a foreign private issuer, Patria reports financial results using International Financial Reporting Standards, or IFRS, as opposed to U.S. GAAP.
Additionally, we would like to remind everyone that we may refer to certain non-IFRS measures, which we believe are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business, but which should not be considered in isolation from or a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. Reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable IFRS are included in our earnings presentation and SEC filings.
So with that out of the hand -- out of the way, I'm very happy to have here with us today Luis Fernando Lopes, our Chief Economist that most of you know; and [ Thiago Pasqua ], our Chief Strategy Officer. And to kick off, I would like to ask both of them to give a brief introduction of themselves, of course, touching base on how they support our investment team and Patria's growth story. So Thiago?
Thank you, Medina, and good to be here. Pleasure to be with you guys. I've been at Patria for 7 years roughly. I worked directly with Alex Saigh, our CEO, running Strategic Office and what we call office of the CEO as well. So related to our strategy, our M&A agenda, and I support Alex on our management daily activities and, of course, strategic initiatives that we have internally. Pleasure to be here. Good to be with you guys.
Luis Fernando, please, floor is yours, introduce yourself, and we can jump start.
Thank you very much, Thiago. Thank you, everybody, for connecting. Please spare some time to listen to our history. Head Economist and Partner for Patria, I'm definitely the elderly here in this conversation. I joined the company 30 years ago, 1996. And the role of Head Economist at Patria actually speaks of several jobs at the same time. So how do we help our investment efforts.
First, of course, we have to produce regular analysis on the basic macroeconomic indicators, economic growth, inflation, interest rates, foreign exchange, so on and so forth. Also that we started doing because the focus -- our initial focus was only in Latin America, knew that geopolitical analysis was something very important for the region. And over the years, we learned that, well, that's something very relevant for investing in any corner of the world, not only in Latin America. And then -- but there is a second block of things that we do and we made deep dive today, which is called sectoral knowledge, something that the economic team also does is to connect the macro story with those key verticals, investment verticals in which Patria has an expertise.
So if we look in terms of our capital deployment, 2/3 of the capital that Patria has deployed so far are concentrated in 6 key investment verticals, which are health and wellness, food and beverage, agribusiness, power transmission generation and distribution, especially renewable power, logistics and transportation and then digital and tech services. So we have to produce research, knowledge, insights on these key sectors and connect to the macro story.
And last but not least, there is a third block of what we do, which is basically look at the markets, see the capital flows where they are going to portfolio changes. And of course, we do this to help our fundraising activity. And in addition to that, we have to measure ourselves, our funds, our products against the benchmark, against the competition. So that's also something that the research team helps do.
And then in this condition, for example, and actually some -- everything that I mentioned, we travel a lot. We talk to a lot of limited partners and investors around the globe. So we also can have a very good intuition about their concerns, portfolio changes, if they are getting increased exposure to one region or the other, so on and so forth. So it's a combination of this, everything shows what we do.
And then just to start, I think perhaps keeping the ball here, one thing that we can start if you focus -- talking about Latin America, we think that's interesting. That's a mix of everything that we mentioned here. For instance, there is -- in addition to geopolitics, we are going to discuss probably what's happening in Venezuela recently. But there is -- there are fundamental trends happening in Latin America.
And then one of them, probably the most important and not very correctly estimated. There are fundamental reforms taking place in the region, especially on the pension systems in Latin America. So key economies like Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Peru, they are changing the regulation of their pension plans and that basically speaks of higher -- increasing contributions by employees, by employers to the system. So this speaks about increasing the AUM in the region.
And in addition to that, there is a change in regulation that is making more space for alternative investments. That's definitely an underpenetrated asset class in the region. Typically, the allocation of institutional investors in Latin America, pension plans or insurance companies, we are talking about 5% of AUM. With this increase in AUM coming from the pension reform plus some changes in regulation, this allocation is going to increase significantly.
So for example, we see a significant increase in demand for alternative assets that Patria offers in Latin America or even outside of Latin America. And this is a very interesting opportunity that is taking place despite all the changes in currency, U.S. strike in Venezuela, so on and so forth. So this gives you an example of what we do and how we do research and how we help our investment teams. And of course, our shareholders as well to understand the investment environment around us.
So this is my long introduction, but I think it's an interesting message to start conveying.
Thank you, Luis. I think just to maybe to set up a common ground and starting point for everybody. Maybe you can elaborate a little bit on -- give us a snapshot on what is Latin America, current main figures and its global relevance that we see nowadays. Maybe you can elaborate a little bit so we can set up a stage here for particular questions.
Definitely, Thiago. So what I'm going to do now, I'm going to share a screen just to show you -- the idea is not to go through a presentation, but basically to show you some examples of what we do. So what we have here is a snapshot of the region. Actually, in every country that we invest and even if you go to the sector, the 6 that I mentioned, we have to produce something like this, which is a summary of the big numbers and the most important trends.
So for example, Latin America as of last year -- 2024, the latest number we have is a USD 7.3 trillion economy space, 662 million people living there. A lot of FDI inflow going into the region. I'm going to go back to this point, 7% of global GDP, 8% of global population, 14% of global net FDI. So this $196 billion that you see on your left-hand side is 14% of the net global FDI. And then you start to see something that differentiates Latin America from other regions. 8% of the global population, 7% of global GDP, but 14% of global FDI, that speaks of a region that welcomes long-term foreign direct investment. So let's be clear about FDI.
FDI, foreign direct investment, does not include investments in bonds and stocks, which are considered portfolio investment. This is really long-term capital expenditures in new factories, in new assets. So we have to create new assets. So this is the FDI thing. But most importantly, in this region, the dynamics is in the very center of this chart, which is basically Latin America is an unusual combination of 2 things, perhaps unknown to several investors. It's a story of robust domestic markets.
So this $7.3 trillion GDP, if you take the 662 million people that live there, nearly half of these people are middle class. This is the World Bank standard. The world average in terms of the size of the middle class is 31%. So this speaks of a deep domestic market. So a lot of investment stories and opportunities in Latin America are related to domestic demand, domestic market. So for example, in the 6 key sectors that we mentioned, health care and wellness, typically are domestic market story because you don't sell the exports of health and wellness are not meaningful.
But then you have the second interesting story, which is in the bottom, which is natural resources. That's probably what most of people that get familiar to Latin America and the world, they are reach natural resources. That's true. So we have in the columns, the share of Latin America and global exports, for example, if you take the second column left to right, soybeans, Latin America is a net exporter of soybeans, $54 billion in 2024. This is 59% of global exports. If you combine the 2, it's a story of domestic market opportunities plus expertise in global commodities.
So usually, when you are in emerging markets, you have either one story for the quarter. So either you have a big, big domestic market, for example, if you go to India, if you go to China, there are humongous domestic markets. There's lots of opportunities, but then natural resources are a bottleneck. If you go to Africa or some countries in the Middle East, if you're talking about oil and gas, the natural resources are there, but then the domestic market is not that developed.
Latin America combined both. And that's the thing we like in the region, produces multiple investment opportunities, but also produces a kind of return if you find the right industry, the right player there, the right investment story. Typically, the excess return that you get in Latin America because of this combination is very little correlated and sometimes completely uncorrelated with the kind of returns you get from similar investments in other geographies.
So this is an example of what is Latin America for us, the different things that we see that compared to consensus. And most importantly, the way we create value and then the way we do investment in infrastructure, in private equity, in real estate, in credit is exploring the opportunities, looking at this market space the way we are doing right now. Now I'm going to stop sharing.
Thanks Luis, thanks for initial thoughts. I think you mentioned in the beginning about the political environment in the region. I think we're seeing kind of a political shift from recent elections. Could you give us your view on the '25, '26 elections also to come and how it could benefit the region and Patria is the new cycle in the region? How do you see this and how we can actually work and get better results in this environment?
If you talk to Latin America, basically, you're talking about everything from Mexico down. So it basically does not include United States, of course, and Canada. If you take the election cycle in the region, it's been very active for actually a couple of years. It's important to stress, we are talking about 35 nations in Latin America, including the very small ones, of which 2 now are not central democracies at this stage, at this moment, Cuba and Nicaragua. Venezuela was not a central democracy, but that story may change. We can discuss this later on in this conversation.
But all the other nations, there are central democracies, which means regular elections, and there are political changes and political cycles. A couple of years ago, we started to see a change in the region, starting with relatively large economy, which is Argentina. Basically, we moved from governments that have a very ambitious social agenda, environmental agenda, but the economic agenda was not that ambitious, was not that robust and then start to see a change towards market-friendly administration in which there is still a social ESG agenda. But clearly, the focus or the emphasis was to speed up growth, fight inflation to speed up investments, especially private investment that started in Argentina, but now we are seeing actually a wave in the region.
So if I may just show another one slide, again, I promise it's not going to be -- I'm not going to do this all the time, but just to show the visual impact, I think it's worth showing. So here we are. On the left-hand side, we have the picture end 2024. Shades of pink, we are talking about this government with more social ESG, environmental agenda, more active or more ambitious and then shades of blue, purple are the governments that are more market-friendly approach.
So the first change that we saw was Argentina. And then if you take the picture, as we expect towards the end of 2026, this year, we had already change in Chile, which moved -- it was pink on the left-hand side, moved to blue. Also in Bolivia, the Central America there elections also, we have now more market-friendly governments. There is this question mark in Venezuela. We don't know exactly. Definitely, the picture shift is not there. So there will be some kind of transition we may discuss. And there is Brazil elections in the end of the year.
So the election cycle here is very clearly that the governments are getting more ambitious on the economic agenda. And part of what the market is liking in this conversation, we can show the asset performance is basically this slide, which shows you looking at the election cycles in this center in Latin America. The left-hand side shows what happens with public equities, stocks, right-hand side, corporate bonds. So basically fixed income but with a focus not on the government bonds, but on the private sector issued bonds.
And then you see what happens before elections and after election, if there is a change towards market-friendly governments, that's the black line. If we have the orange line is exactly the opposite when the change takes place, but it's from a market-friendly administration into a more social active or state active kind of thing. So what we are seeing in the region because of the election cycle in the midway through the cycle in black. Stock markets in Latin America last year outperformed almost all the world. We talked about the MSCI, you see on the left-hand side, it was north of 50%, 5-0, last year in U.S. dollars. Also, we have 30% appreciation in bonds.
So that tells you a story that in addition to the fundamental trends, the fundamental dynamics in Latin America that's different, there is a political change. And this political change because it favors market and private investment. We are halfway through this thing in terms of where the shark both on the left and the right side shows you what happens at minus 1, day minus 1, which is basically the day before elections and then what happens 90 days after 3 months, 181 days, of course, is 6 months and then 1 year down the road. So we are in the middle of the story, so cautiously optimistic that if we have more of the same in terms of political change, we are going to see additional asset appreciation there. So this is the importance of the election cycle in the region.
Thank you, Luis. I think despite the short-term election cycle that we are facing and this direction that you just mentioned, I think a lot of things don't happen in the region given all the regulatory framework and things that actually bring robustness to the market itself. I think you see some independent central banks, fiscal rules and so on and so forth. How these things actually are meaningful to Patria in a way as a local player in Latin America? And how does it relate to mid long-term investments?
An important thing -- thank you for this question. It's important to understand that doing investment in Latin America, not only now, but over the past 30, 40 years that what Patria has been doing, it speaks of dealing with volatility. So it's not because the regulators of the central bankers in Latin America, they are smarter than in the rest of the world, but the regulation in Latin America and the monetary policy is very, very strict compared even to developed geographies.
For example, what happened during the global financial crisis, which was that essentially was the United States that was a classic credit crisis. And there was no spillover in Latin America. Latin America had 1 or 2 quarters of adverse economic growth that was an adverse shock. The contagion in the region was close to 0 because most of the asset mispricing on the lack of adequate reserves and the idea that you could do off-balance sheet investment that could not happen in Latin America because we had so many crises in the past that the regulation in the region was very strict and then the contagion effect coming from what happened in the United States was 0.
But in addition to that, because we have also decades of very high inflation in Latin America, especially until the mid-90s the central banks are very, very hawkish in terms of monetary policy. So just to give you an example, the latest cycle of inflation pressure in the region that emerged after the COVID crisis. So everybody in the world had an inflation problem after COVID, but the reactions of the Central Bank was very different. So in Latin America, the Central Bank has led the cycle of monetary tightening. And by tightening, we are talking about interest rates that were never 0. So Latin America never had the experience of 0 interest rate policies. So interest rate in the lowest we had in the region was 2%. But then this 2% turned out to be 10%, 12%, 15%.
So that's the -- how tough monetary policy can be when the Central Bank hit the brakes in order to combat inflation. So imagine if you have a highly leverage buyout investment story in which the cost of capital increased fivefold, sixfold. This is a full disaster. So there's no way to do this in Latin America. So again, not because we are smarter or more intelligent, just because of the regulation, the way the central banks operate. Capital markets are pretty robust, resilient in the region.
And then what you have basically is if you have further evolution in fundamentals, for example, the recent government approving pension reform, so we're going to have probably more resources flowing into insurance companies and pension plans. So the AUM of the industry is going to increase. But as I mentioned before, it's still underpenetrated industry in terms of tapping on alternative assets. So there is room to be cautiously optimistic that we are going to have additional demand for private equity, for infrastructure, for structural credit or real estate that's going to be in a healthy environment.
So amid interest rates, they are still relatively high. Inflation is trending lower in Latin America. Most of the countries are already having inflation within the targets. And that means that from 12%, 15% short-term interest rates, now interest rates are 200, 300, 400 basis points and lower, but there is still a lot to go for example. If you take the largest economy in the region, Brazil, interest rates are about to decrease or about to trend lower. We are at 15% short-term interest rates. The market yield -- the yield curve shows interest rates going down 250 basis points this year.
But depending on the election cycle, remember the slide we showed, there is a question mark. It is more the same when President Lula achieves the fourth mandate, he is seeking reelection. Probably we are going to have this 200, 250 bps cut this year, a bit more next year. But if Brazil goes the same way the rest of the region and then we move to a more market-friendly administration in 2026 -- late 2026, early 2027, interest rates can go down significantly more.
And then all the story that we mentioned, long-term trends going in the right direction, of course, it will be much more impactful and then everything that we said concerning Brazil in terms of the penetration of alternative assets, interest rates going down faster, probably growth acceleration is going to be even more impressive than we have mentioned so far. So our scenario is more on the conservative side, more of the same in Brazil. But the alternative scenario, the 40% probability scenario is something better in terms of market development. If the acquisition means that then Brazil joins the team of the group of countries with more market-friendly deposit, that can be a game changer. Again, not our base scenario at this stage, but let's keep monitoring this because it's going to be a very competitive election.
I'll bridge to our strategy in the region in a second. Just a reminder here, feel free to make your questions. We're happy to get your questions and elaborate on that. But bridging to our strategy, I think you mentioned cycles of high interest rates, high inflation. And although it's happening in the region, we continue to see a financial deepening, not only institutional investors, but also individuals as well.
So how this -- we have a strategy, of course, in financial in the region outside has a very low penetration. So how do you see these cycles to come and how durable it is? And how do you see this phenomenon in the region?
So definitely, we have a deepening of capital markets in the region. It started not as a trend triggered by the major players. So the institutional investor, the pension plans and the insurance company, they were followers. It started basically with the family offices and people that have wealth and then -- because they see what's happening with alternative assets on the changes in capital markets in the United States or Europe, et cetera, they start to demand this kind of thing in the region. But then, of course, over time, if there is demand, the supply will show up.
So we are in the process of deepening capital markets, diversifying in a universe of very high interest rates, it's very difficult to sell the appeal of moving into alternatives, right? So for example, if you're in Brazil, you can receive 15% in your government bonds. And in addition to that, the currency is depreciating 11% against the U.S. dollar. That's one thing is not that easy to sell alternatives. But looking forward, as we said, the yield curve in Brazil projects at least 250 bps of interest rate cuts. In addition to that, we start to see some interesting structuring of alternative assets in Brazil. So actually, Patria spearheaded or pioneer many of this in real estate and credit especially.
So what we are seeing is basically Latin American following through the process that happened already in the United States and Europe 15, 20, 25 years ago. So definitely, you can say that now it's a relatively generalized movement. So the institutional investors that are the ones that write big checks, they are moving in that direction. We see this in our fundraising in the region clearly.
And looking forward, given the reform that we mentioned, pension plans, et cetera, given low interest rates, given the spectacular performance of some of these alternative assets, I mentioned, for example, a very simple thing, if you go to structured credit in local currency, but then you calculate the return in U.S. dollars, we are talking about over 30% appreciation last year. So this is mind boggling. So definitely, the capital deepening in the region is taking place and at a much faster pace because the institutional investor, the ones that can write the big checks, they are doing that. So we see momentum. Again, it's very clear already in our fundraising efforts.
And I think that we have seen recently, right, inclination towards private credit, right? I think we saw that, of course, in the U.S. and Europe as well. And now it's happening in Latin America. So here in Brazil, just for instance, we have our FIDCs. We call it kind of CLO structures, financing working capital for companies, just an example. And you come to the client willing to invest in this kind of products to go from institutional investors to individuals.
So it's -- I think it's a phenomenon that's also happening here on high interest rate cycles. I think credit emerged. And we can see it only on the FIDCs, but also on real estate credit as well. So I think it's a matter of the wider offering. It's also ready to navigate from different kind of types, right, in the region.
Yes. I'm looking at, again, our market intelligence, 2 things are worth mentioning here. If you look at the credit industry in the region, Latin America, especially the biggest economies like Brazil and Mexico, it's still old style financial intermediation in which the big banks they control depending on where you look at AUM or the outstanding credit, they're talking about over 50%, sometimes 60% are controlled by 3, 4, 5 big banks. So there is room for undercutting the traditional banks. So the debanking pieces in Latin America can take place because the market share of the banks is abnormally high for modern standards.
So that's one thing where we are going through, it's basically trying to cut on the market share of the traditional banks. But in addition to that, you mentioned something that's also important that there is the financial -- new financial technology in the region is taking place at a surprising fast pace. So what we are seeing here is those new technological innovation we need to create institutions that are mostly digital, they can provide these new services or new products and they can service, of course, the institutional investors or the family office, but they can provide access to these new products, the alternatives. to middle-class people.
So we have institutions, for example, in the case of Brazil, like XP, it is something that is hard to find in other countries. So these guys are able to cut through the financial intermediation and provide very appealing products, risk-adjusted. And the guys you can have, of course, there is -- they do the proper diligence in terms of investor profile, the risk aversion and knowledge of the market. But the guy now can access -- don't need to have a family office. They can access very good real estate alternative products and credit and also private equity and also infrastructure, et cetera. That's something that is really interesting and has to do with this new financial innovation with an awful lot of technology, a lot of this digital investing.
I think you mentioned 2 topics in the beginning of our conversation here. One is the pension system reform that's taking place in some countries in the region. The other one is about what happened in Venezuela and how all this Trump new way of dealing with the world is impacting maybe investment flows to the region, so on and so forth. Maybe you can start with the second one, elaborating a little bit on what happened in Venezuela, how does it affect the region, how it affect Patria's business in the region and how you see the money flowing to Latin America from the U.S. perspective, from Asia and other parts of the world that usually invest here in the region.
Okay. Definitely. So our take on Venezuela. There is this so-called Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, which is basically the American continent for the Americans, not for the Europeans or the Asian, et cetera. So we have now a practical example of what does that mean. So it's basically the United States reasserting its hedgemony in the continent, which means basically a very active program to reduce the penetration of other economies or nations or power that have seen us compared to the U.S. It's basically China, but also lower -- there was some penetration, some noise in the region coming from investments or actions from Russia and Iran as well.
So we don't think that there is any meaningful similarity to what happened in Afghanistan or Iraq. So Venezuela probably going to be a very different story first because Venezuela has a very long democratic tradition. So Venezuela is actually one of the richest countries, full functional democratic system in Latin America until the mid-1990s. So the dictatorship that eventually emerged in Venezuela is an exception in the story. So Venezuela was a market country economy, not socialists, relatively robust institution. And then one President was elected that was Chavez. And because he got a constitutional majority in the Congress, he began to control. So the executive part began to control the Congress and then they took control of the judiciary and then the media, et cetera, and then we landed in a dictatorship, but now this is changing.
So if there is mean reversion, if Venezuela can go back to where it was 25, 30, 50 years ago, so we can be cautiously optimistic. That's different from Iraq and Afghanistan that has no democratic tradition, no market institutions of solid market institutions. So probably the best proxy for what the United States is planning in Venezuela is what happened in Panama in 1989. So at that time, there was also a dictator. So the United States has to intervene, get rid of the strong man. The name was -- the gentleman was not Maduro, of course. It was Manuel Noriega. The guy was sentenced to 40 years behind bar because of drug dealing, et cetera.
But then Panama became actually a very impressive success story in Latin America because GDP per capita since the strong man Manuel Noriega was out in late 1989, grew by nearly 160%, 1-6-0, whereas the whole of Latin America grew, take the Latin America region, real GDP per capita grew around 60%. So it's 160% versus 60%. So actually, Panama was a big success. So Venezuela can be a similar story. Definitely, we don't buy that Venezuela will become something like Iraq or Afghanistan, can be a very constructive story.
And then -- but if you don't need to take at face value what we are saying here in this conversation, we can just go to the markets and see how they are reacting in terms of currencies, in terms of stock markets, bonds, year-to-date, remember, the U.S. snatching Maduro was January 3. If you take stock markets, currencies, corporate bonds, et cetera, the market is better now than it was like that. So there is no pricing of contagion and then things getting out of control in Venezuela.
And then if I can show another slide, if you please just share another one, probably it's going to be the last one. So this is what I call extreme geopolitical risk. It's not calculated by us. It's actually a couple of guys from the Federal Reserve. You can see the reference in the bottom of the chart. So it's this Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello. Basically, they map extreme geopolitical shocks.
So what do we mean by extreme? We are talking about wars. We are talking about terrorist attacks. We are talking about conflagration, civil conflagration in terms of people dying or substantial currency depreciation or interruption of capital flows. And then the model uses artificial intelligence and then tracks from where these extreme geopolitical shocks are coming from. So basically, we have here Latin America, Asia Pacific, Europe, North America and Middle East and Africa since the end of the second world war.
So you can see here easy to spot. Latin America is the orange line. If you take what's happening in Venezuela, there is an uptick in the geopolitical risk. But you are talking about Latin America as a region accounting for less than 2% of the extreme geopolitical risk. At this stage, the bulk of the risk is still Europe. It was worse before you see the peak in 2022, that was Russia invading Ukraine, came down and then getting a little bit worse. But the bulk of the global geopolitical risk, things that actually move prices, asset price significantly, they are taking place in Middle East and Africa. They are taking place in other regions. And in North America, there is this uptick here, not because exactly of Greenland or thing like this, is more a combination of what's happening in Canada and Mexico, which is part of, in this case, North America.
So in terms of Venezuela, we are monitoring what's happening on a daily basis, of course. But given what we think is the road map of Venezuela, it's much more Panama than Iraq or Afghanistan. Chances are that 5, 10 years down the road, Venezuela is going to be a better story than it is right now. And then the final number here, I would like to disclose or trivia in terms of numbers. If you take GDP per capita in Venezuela 50 years ago, in the mid-90s,70s, it was 3x higher than it is today.
So what happened with dictatorship? GDP per capita is a proxy for individual wells and how much income people have in Venezuela is 1/3 of it was back in the 1970s. So anything that gets a little bit better than that, it's a plus for the region. And then we already have a cautiously optimistic scenario in terms of growth acceleration in Latin America before the event in Venezuela. We are talking about a region that grew little 10 years ago. So the GDP growth was below 2%. We can have GDP growth going to close to 3% in 2026, 2027. There is political change. Some economies are clearly growing faster.
Argentina, for example, is last year probably grew close to 5%. This year, it's something between 3% and 5% -- 3% and 4%, sorry. Venezuela, negative number, it goes to 0, it's a plus for the region. So Venezuela, again, is a shock is an adverse geopolitical shock, but it's a small fraction of what you see in other regions. And probably the odds of a positive outcome in Venezuela are not 0. Actually, they are substantial.
All right. Thank you, Luis, and thank you, Thiago. Very nice questions and thoughtful discussion. We do have some questions from the audience here. Let me start with the first one. I'll read it as it came. So Luis, can you discuss Latin America's infrastructure build-out, particularly as it relates to data centers? How large is the new build data center opportunity beyond Patria's Omnia ByteDance project in Ceará?
Okay. Thank you, Medina, for the question. So infrastructure is one of Patria's key investment areas. So we have infrastructure along with private equity, real estate, credit listed equities as well. Infrastructure, basically of the 6 key verticals that we mentioned before, 3 are very important for infrastructure, which are power generation and distribution, et cetera, with a focus on renewables, logistics and transportation and infrastructure and data and tech services. So clearly, infrastructure buildup in Latin America is key.
Probably the most important fundamental trend or the fundamental dynamic in Latin America is it's the middle class society in Latin America. So the evolving demand of this middle class, when you are poor or lower middle class and you upgrade to middle class, your demand patterns change. So you tend to move away from public health into private health and move away from public education into private education, so on and so forth. What happens if most of the infrastructure, which is the case in Latin America, was provided by governments to state-owned companies. And these governments are now constrained by fiscal discipline or fiscal rules, and they cannot invest pari passu the demand. So we have huge gaps in basic infrastructure. And we are talking about power generation, we are talking about transportation. We are talking about telecom services, et cetera.
So to understand the infrastructure dynamics in the region is very important to talk about a huge and probably the most ambitious program of privatization and concessions in the role. So we are very active on this process of privatization and more recently, concessions. So concessions, we are talking about toll road concessions, 30-year concessions, inflation adjusted or in some cases, you can have indexation to the U.S. dollar. We are talking about power generation, transmission and distribution that's becoming mostly private. In the past, it was public or state-owned companies, sanitation, water and sewage, so on and so forth.
In terms of -- we are talking about in terms of actionable infrastructure thesis that you can pursue if you have, you can write a check, looking at 2026 to 2030, over USD 100 billion equity checks. So if you add some leverage, some project finance, depending on your ratio, equity to debt, the actual investment thesis increase twofold, threefold, et cetera.
So in terms of lack of opportunities in infrastructure in Latin America, that's the problem you don't have. Of course, some of these projects, they have a risk profile that is closer to what we think that's appropriate for our investors. Some we think it's too risky or if they are not that risky, the return profile is not that good. But having said that, we are very constructive.
In addition to that, remember, the exits or the opportunities to divest because of the deepening of the capital markets, you can -- in the past, basically, you could sell your infrastructure assets to -- once we stabilize your infrastructure, it become regularly yield generating, et cetera, you could sell to another electric utility or public utilities or a multinational that was arriving in Latin America or you could do an IPO. Today, you can do something different. The deepen of capital markets means that you can list -- you can use a fund structure, list the assets and then it becomes tradable and you start to exit through a listed fund. It's not when you need to go into the IPO necessarily or you have to sell to a multinational, et cetera. So we have more ways to exit. So this helps also the asset side.
But then let me concentrate now on infrastructure, digital and the data centers. So what we have here and Patria has already a very successful venture in data center. We actually -- we create from scratch, develop a network of data centers, so sites in Brazil, in Mexico, in Colombia and in Chile. We sold -- we divested a very handsome multiple in U.S. dollars. And now the demand is still there. And actually, we are developing and starting the thesis all over again, but just to give an intuition about the size, the first asset that we have to do in the second generation of data center investment.
The first asset, the capacity is equal to the combined capacity of the 4 sites we sold in the first venture. So this is how strong and robust is the demand for data centers in Brazil. Of course, the idea is not going to stay in Brazil. It's going to be again a regional platform. We're going to build up assets in other regions as well.
And then probably the -- some attendees you may ask the question, but who -- where is the demand coming from? It is from the local economies. Remember, this is a middle class story, nearly 700 million people living there, middle class. So there is this pent-up demand, which is local. But in terms of AI and the usage of data centers, if you are not extremely strict on issues like -- technical issues like latency, you can provide, for example, AI is different from streaming. You can provide or can use these data centers as a backbone of -- for the hyperscales around the globe. It's not only in Latin America.
So actually, these assets that we are now building and it's the beginning of a new cycle of investment in this area. The demand is coming from the rest of the world. And then, of course, we located our assets very close in Brazil, where the point the fiber cables coming from the United States undersea and Europe, of course, it's very close, so we can connect very easily. But in terms of the potential for this investment as it is right now and increasing significantly in the near future, it's there.
And most importantly, and that has a little bit to do with geopolitics. We can definitely play with consumers and demand from several quarters of the world. So do we have demand for these data center services coming from the United States? Yes. And coming from Europe, yes, as well. And coming from Asia, yes, as well. So it's not the case that, oh, now there is a new geopolitics and then you have to pick size, either you service the United States or you service Europe or you service Asia, not true for Latin America. We are going to service everybody.
Even with the new President Trump's Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, we are going to service. Of course, it's a different proposition to say, no, are you going to have Asian nation building up a mega port complex in Latin America. That's a different proposition. But building up a data center or a network of data centers that good services can be provided worldwide, why not? So we are very, very constructive on especially these data centers with the vertical within the universe of infrastructure.
But -- let's be clear here. There is still demand for the base infrastructure. So we are also moving into our first initiative into sanitation and water services. Our first move is a concession, long-term concession. Patria is doing this. And there is opportunities in toll roads, yes, there is opportunity on other basic infrastructure assets, yes. Desalination plant, for example, is something that we do, a very interesting project. We don't think that there is value added for Patria. For example, we are not going to go into mining to dig copper or lithium, but we are providing infrastructure services to the big players in the mining industry.
For example, the most important operation of a multinational mining company in Chile that has this problem of water, climate change, they use this operation of this mining activity use to rely on natural sources of water, basically a river. And then the river flows start to get a more complicated issue and then they have to service the population as well. So the government of Chile decided that the priority should be given to the population, which is quite correct. And then the mining activity had to find the water in a different source. So it comes desalination plant.
So we are doing this. We are talking about a big project, 1,000 liters per second capacity. We can double this, and it's became vital to this mining activity. Just to show you, it's a infrastructure, completely different from digital. But that's the way, for example, we service the mining industry. And then if the question is how do you play with the critical mineral things, that's the way we can help mining with a focus on critical minerals and other minerals as well.
Great. We do have some additional questions coming from the audience, and I would like to remind everyone that they can submit their questions through the webcast platform. Luis, you already touched base on this, but I'll read the question here. Maybe you can give more details. Do you think the macro scenario discussed, the renewed Monroe Doctrine can negatively impact the dollar inflows from Asian and increase inflows from the U.S. if it becomes a U.S. administration policy to encourage it?
Okay. That's a very good question. What we are -- let me tell what we think and actually what we are seeing from our LP basis. One of the major drivers of diversification into the region, there is this interesting story, a combination of middle class and expertise in commodities. But in terms of getting additional interest from investors, what changed over the past 12 to 18 months was the dollar depreciation globally. So interesting story in Latin America, but we start to have conversations with people that had exposure to Latin America want to increase and some of the investors that were happy with exposure to the U.S., the Latin America story was not that enticing for them. It's basically the dollar started to depreciate significantly. And then they said, okay, I need something different from the typical portfolio that I have, which is heavily exposed to the U.S.
We don't think that this trend is going to change. We think that there is additional room for U.S. dollar depreciation. If you combine everything that's happening in the United States, yes, there is a very constructive and encouraging story in terms of technical -- technological revolution. This is artificial intelligence. But on the other hand, you have the trade policy, fiscal policy, now issues in terms of monetary policy credibility, the clash between the executive power and the Federal Reserve.
So -- and in addition to that, if you do any calculation of exchange rate valuation, the U.S. dollar is still very expensive by any metric. So we are talking about at least 10% overvaluation looking back 25, 50 years, depending on your calculating -- can get to 15%. So there is room for additional depreciation of the U.S. dollar. So we see continued interest in -- actually greater interest in Latin America as a portfolio diversification story.
In terms of the Asian demand, it's not slowing. I think it's important to say, perhaps there is a little bit too much focus on Asia, meaning China. At least for us, that's not true. So China is a key player and a key investor, yes. But in terms of the proportion of checks in proportion to the economy, the share of the economy, Singapore is very active, very impressive, highly professional investors from the sovereign wealth funds. But Japan invest with us as well and so does Korea, et cetera.
So in terms of the Asian interest in the Latin America, we haven't seen any change. Of course, depending on the what was the kind of investment that China did in Venezuela, there will be a shock. But we suspect and looking at what happened in Venezuela, China was not investing more in Venezuela for -- actually for a number of years. So probably the slowdown of monies from China into Venezuela already took place in terms of what we see for our products, not only from China or -- but adding Singapore, Japan, Korea, there is more interest, not less.
But having said that, are we seeing renewed interest from North American investors, U.S. and Canada? And the answer is yes. This interest was decreasing 5, 6, 7 years ago because the United States market was performing so well, there was not much need for diversification. Last year, the United States market performed well. It was not a terrible market until acreage was convoluted, bumpy. But after that, the market is growing nicely. The thing is just compare the numbers again. I think I can show again a slide -- I can show the numbers, but perhaps the visual impact is high. So what I'm going to do is to share again a slide. And then here it is. So what we have here on the left-hand side...
Wait, it is not on the screen, I think.
Sorry. Now it is?
Now you're good, yes.
Okay. Sorry, sorry for that. Left-hand side, listed equities measured in U.S. dollars, MSCI, the bottom of the same chart, fixed income. So we're taking the global corporate index by JPMorgan. So we are talking about U.S. listed equity MSCI, 17% total return last year. That was not bad and 6.2% return in fixed income, corporate fixed income, not bad at all. But look at Latin America, 54.8% return on listed equities and 33.6% return on corporate bonds.
So this is what bringing Canadian American interest to Latin America. Okay. They saw the depreciation of U.S. dollar. They saw that Latin America outperformed. Problem there is -- we don't think that it's going to be the same performance in 2026 and '27 because it's impossible for a region to deliver 50% plus or 30% plus return. But the issue that these guys are having and discussing this a lot with them is on the right-hand side. This is the typical portfolio allocation of global investors and the exposure to U.S. dollars. The number is not ours, it's Cambridge Associates, which is also an investor with us. So they calculated that by mid-2025, a global investor typically had 83% exposure to U.S. dollar; in terms of virtual capital, 76%; in private credit, a 70-30 portfolio of stocks and bonds, 75% exposure; 66% private equity; and 64% stock.
So our little theory here is that the typical global investors and even in the United States or Canada, they are still going to be overexposed to the U.S., but not at that rate. So if you trim 1%, 2%, 3% of the number on the right-hand side, if you sum everything you see on the right-hand side, is an estimation of the financial market assets, liquid like bonds and stocks and illiquid. They're talking about trillions of U.S. dollars, several trillion dollars. So any 1%, 2% that you reduce on the right-hand side and move into Latin America, well, we are talking about hundreds of billions, and then that changes prices in Latin America.
So what we are seeing here is on the right-hand side, investors reducing their excessive exposure to the U.S. or U.S. assets. Again, they are not going to be neutral, not even underweight. They are just going to be a little bit less overweight in the U.S., but every 1%, 2%, 3% that they move out of the U.S. and Latin America captures a small fraction of this, you have significant impact on price because, of course, it's a much smaller market than the U.S. is.
So that's what we are seeing in terms of portfolio changes, Asia and also United States and Canada. When we talk North America, it's the combination of U.S. and Canada because I think everybody knows the institutional investors in Canada, especially pension plans are very active and they're pretty big.
Interesting. We're getting to the top of the hour, but I think you can squeeze one more question from the audience here, Luis. Now I'll focus more on the local fundraising, saying more and more of Patria fundraising is coming from local investors within the region. How do you see local capital flows into private markets evolving in the next few years, both for institutional and individual investors? And what do you see driving that?
The trend is clearly upwards. As I mentioned, the economies are growing probably a little bit faster than they were before. So the economic growth per se gives you more room to increase your allocation to alternative assets. But you have these other 2 changes. So the reform -- potential reforms in the region, increasing more the AUM of institutional investors. But in addition to that, there are regulatory changes in which you can invest. There was a limit in some -- there was a cap on some countries and how much money you could invest in alternative assets because they were deem to risk, et cetera. Now this is changing as well.
And then so what you see, it was a good surprise in terms of fundraising that we had in Latin America, the local fundraising even in an environment of very high interest rates, they were going down, but in absolute terms for international they were pretty high, the fundraising surprised to the upside. So we think more of the same is going to happen in 2026 and 2027 because we have the combination of low interest rates, a little bit faster economic growth. This political change and the regulatory framework is becoming more and more friendly.
So in terms of this penetration, the deepening of capital markets, it's all there. The thing that we have to pay a little bit of attention and depending on the government, on the jurisdiction, this increased demand for alternative assets that we supply, sometimes it comes with some strain. For example, yes, you can invest more in -- especially if you are a pension plan, you can invest more in alternative assets, but you should invest in alternative assets that can help finance infrastructure in that country. That may happen.
But then as we explained, we have a vast array of infrastructure solutions in Latin America, ranging from desalination plants to power distribution lines going into data centers, et cetera, we can easily fill this gap. This is more difficult for our international competition. So some of our competitors, very good companies, excellent managers, they have a more difficult environment because they can provide international assets to these investors in Latin America. But in terms of, oh, how can you help us invest in local infrastructure, that's more difficult for them. For Patria it is not. We are locals. We are local in Brazil, locals in Argentina, locals in Colombia and in Chile.
So what's happening there, we can provide this solution. So we have the best of the world. So we're raising more money. And even in those jurisdictions you need -- you can invest more -- provide more assets or more solutions in terms of alternative assets, but you have to help the country in terms of local infrastructure, et cetera or develop the credit market. We can do that. For our international competitors, it's more difficult.
Great. We did start on time. So let's be mindful of everyone's time and finish on time as well. So thank you very much, Luis. Thank you very much, Thiago, for this very thoughtful conversation. I do still have some questions from the audience that we can reply. We will reply to you guys via e-mail. And yes, so thank you, everyone. And again, like have a fantastic 2026 for all of us.
My great pleasure. Thank you, Medina. Thank you, Thiago. I hope it was a productive session. And please count on us. There are other topics that we may explore by mail or we can schedule another session like this. For sure, we are going to have several interesting developments in terms of the investment opportunities and the investment environment around us. So it will be my pleasure to show up again.
Likewise, good to be here. Thanks for your time.
Thank you.
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Patria Investments — Special Call - Patria Investments Limited
Patria Investments — Special Call - Patria Investments Limited
📌 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Patria sieht Lateinamerika als Wachstums‑ und Diversifikationschance: Pensionsreformen und regulatorische Öffnung erhöhen künftig Assets under Management (AUM) und die Nachfrage nach Alternativen. Politischer Wandel zu marktfreundlicheren Regierungen, hohe Foreign Direct Investment (FDI, Auslandsdirektinvestitionen) und Privatisierungsprogramme stützen Infrastruktur‑ und Datenzentrumsausbau. Geopolitische Schocks (u.a. Venezuela) werden aktiv überwacht.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Pensionen: Reformen in Mexiko, Kolumbien, Chile, Peru sollen Beiträge und AUM erhöhen und damit strukturell mehr Allokationen in Private Markets ermöglichen.
- Datenzentren: Patria baut eine neue Datenzentrum‑Plattform (u. a. Omnia/ByteDance in Ceará). Nachfrage kommt lokal wie global; erstes neues Asset entspricht Kapazität der vier zuvor verkauften Standorte.
- Infrastruktur: Fokus auf Konzessionen/Privatisierungen (Strom, Straßen, Wasser, Entsalzung). Management nennt einen adresserbaren Eigenkapitalbedarf von >USD 100 Mrd (2026–2030).
🔎 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Kein finanzielles Guidance‑Update. Inhaltlich neu sind betonte Markttrends: beschleunigte lokale LP‑Nachfrage, Pensions‑ und Regulierungsreformen, erneute Datenzentrum‑Plattformen und eine klare Größenordnung für Infrastruktur‑Eq‑Bedarf.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Datenzentren: Nachfragequelle, Latenz/Anbindung zu Hyperscalern und regionaler Rollout wurden vertieft; Management betont lokale Endnachfrage plus internationale Kunden.
- Kapitalflüsse: Zur US‑„Corollary“-Diskussion: USA‑Interesse dürfte steigen, asiatische Allokationen bleiben relevant; Dollar‑Abwertung fördert Diversifikation in die Region.
- Local LPs: Nachfrage aus lokalen Pensionsfonds und wohlhabenden Privatanlegern nimmt zu; Regulierung und Vertriebskanäle treiben lokales Fundraising.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Impakt: Positiv für Aktionäre: strukturelle Treiber (Pensionsreform, Privatisierungen, Kapitalmarktvertiefung) erhöhen langfristiges Wachstums‑ und Gebotsfeld in Infrastruktur, Credit und Datenzentren. Kurzfristige Risiken bleiben geopolitisch (Venezuela) und zinszyklusbedingt; Management verfolgt konservative Basisszenarien.
Patria Investments — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Patria's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Andre Medina from Patria Shareholder Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Patria's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. Speaking today on the call are our Chief Executive Officer, Alex Saigh; and our Chief Financial Officer, Ana Russo; and our Chief Economist, Luis Fernando Lopes for the Q&A session.
This morning, we issued a press release and earnings presentation detailing our results for the quarter, which you can find posted on the Investor Relations section of our website or on Form 6-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain, do not guarantee future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them.
Patria assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on current management expectations and involve risks, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our latest Form 20-F annual report.
Also, note that no statements on this call constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Patria fund. As a foreign private issuer, Patria reports financial results using International Financial Reporting Standards, or IFRS, as opposed to U.S. GAAP.
Additionally, we would like to remind everyone that we will refer to certain non-IFRS measures, which we believe are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business, but which should not be considered in isolation from or a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. Reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable IFRS measures are included in our earnings presentation.
Now I'll turn the call over to Alex.
Thank you, Andre. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.
Before we jump into the quarterly results, I would like to take a minute to celebrate an important milestone for Patria as our assets under management exceeded $50 billion as of the end of the third quarter, over 3.5x higher than our assets under management at the time of our IPO in 2021.
Looking back to our origins 37 years ago and seeing the diversified investment platform we have built is extremely rewarding. We could not have achieved this milestone without the hard work and dedication of our team and most importantly, the trust our clients have placed in us.
Since we went public in January 2021, Patria has grown from a $14 billion assets under management asset manager serving primarily a global investor base and focused mainly on private equity and infrastructure in Brazil to a broadly diversified multi-asset class manager serving both local and global investors with strong investments and distribution capabilities across Latin America and expanding capabilities in Europe and the United States. Congratulations to all of our amazing team members in reaching this milestone.
Now with that as a backdrop, the strong third quarter 2025 results further highlight our progress as organic fundraising surpassed $1.5 billion in the quarter, led by our infrastructure and credit businesses and total organic fundraising year-to-date reached $6 billion.
Therefore, we are well on track to exceed the high end of our previously upwardly revised full year target of $6.6 billion. I'd like to note that for the last 12 months, organic fundraising inflows to assets under management totaled approximately $6.9 billion. I'd like also to point out that the aforementioned year-to-date $6 billion of fundraising inflows into assets under management do not include any acquisition, a result of how we are leveraging the investments we have made in our platforms, mainly in our commercial areas.
Redemptions have been trending lower and year-to-date represent approximately 30% less than what we saw last year, a clear reflection of our strong investment performance across our verticals. Strong fundraising supported by lower redemption rates is translating into solid net organic growth as we generated over $1.4 billion of net organic inflows into fee-earning assets under management year-to-date and $1.8 billion over the last 12 months.
Year-to-date, net inflows reflect an annualized organic growth rate of about 6%, which continues to highlight our ability to drive strong organic revenue and earnings growth. With that, our fee-earning assets under management in the third quarter 2025 grew to $38.8 billion, up 4% sequentially and 14% year-over-year.
In the third quarter of 2025, we reported fee-related earnings of $49.5 million, representing 7% sequentially and 22% year-over-year growth, driven mainly by solid fee-earning assets under management growth and margin expansion as we continue to make progress integrating our acquisitions.
On a per share basis, fee-related earnings of $0.31 in the third quarter of 2025 rose 8% sequentially and 19% year-over-year. Our momentum is further illustrated by the $46.9 million of distributable earnings we generated in the third quarter or $0.30 per share, up a robust 22% sequentially and 31% year-over-year, driven mainly by the just mentioned very strong fee-related earnings growth.
In addition, during the third quarter, we entered a total return swap with a financial institution to repurchase 1.5 million shares. With that, as of the end of the third quarter of 2025, our share count stands at 158 million shares.
Ana Russo, our CFO, will provide further details in her comments. While we did not generate performance-related earnings in this quarter, I am excited to announce that subsequent to quarter end, we had multiple monetization events in our Infrastructure Fund III, which we expect will generate approximately $15 million of performance-related earnings in the fourth quarter, bringing year-to-date total to approximately $16 million, with the potential to move higher if we have additional monetizations over the remaining 2 months of the year.
We continue to expect Infrastructure Fund III to be the main source of performance-related earnings through 2026. As it relates to the macro outlook, it is worth noting the depreciation of the United States dollar against most of the other currencies, which contribute to our revenues in addition to the dollar.
Historically, periods of dollar weakness have acted as catalysts for international portfolio diversification, prompting investors to seek exposure to regions with stronger relative performance, lower correlation and more attractive fundamentals.
We are seeing this story unfold once again as many global investors move to reduce their overweight positions in United States assets. We believe there is still more to come as non-United States markets continue to offer compelling valuations and can serve as effective risk-adjusted options to rebalance portfolios and hedge against dollar depreciation. This environment is likely to further support our fundraising efforts.
As I noted at the start of my remarks, we are pleased to report that we raised $1.5 billion in the third quarter of 2025, totaling approximately $6 billion year-to-date. And we are well on track to exceed the high end of our full year target of $6.6 billion. For the last 12 months, organic fundraising inflows to assets under management totaled approximately $6.9 billion.
To provide some additional color on fundraising, we continue to see increased global interest in investments in infrastructure in Latin America from which we continue to benefit as the leading infrastructure investor in the region.
Over the first three quarters of the year, we raised 4x more than in 2024, led by our Infrastructure Fund V drawdown fund, co-investment vehicles and other strategies. I would like to congratulate our infrastructure and commercial teams on the recently announced final close of our Fund V and related vehicles at $2.9 billion, almost 40% higher when compared to our previous vintage, making it the largest dedicated infrastructure vintage focused fund on Latin America.
It is also important to highlight that our credit business continues to stand out and has surpassed total 2024 fundraising by almost 15% as of the third quarter of 2025, reaching $1.6 billion fundraised this year. It is worth noting that 2024 was already a record year for fundraising for credit.
Our success in fundraising for infrastructure and credit is supported by a global economy experiencing persistent inflation and consequently, high interest rates. Finally, GPMS has raised $1.7 billion year-to-date, continuing to highlight the strong support from our clients and the success of the integration of this business onto our platform.
We believe that GPMS will continue to be a strong contributor to our future growth. As we expand our business, a large portion of the capital we raise will flow into fee-earning assets under management as capital is deployed. Our current pending fee-earning assets under management totals about $3.2 billion.
While the level of pending fee-earning assets under management can vary over the short term, over time, we would expect it to grow as our fundraising grows and we can raise more capital in drawdown funds, SMAs and similar fund structures. It is also important to note that our fee-earning assets under management and management fees are very sticky and highly predictable. Indeed, approximately 22% of our fee-earning assets under management are in permanent capital vehicles, listed vehicles with no redemption policies and approximately 90% in vehicles with no or limited redemption policies.
Additionally, it is worth noting that over 50% of our fees are charged over net asset value or market value, which year-to-date has contributed approximately $2 billion to fee-earning assets under management, reflecting our very strong investment performance. We also would like to highlight that our fee-related earnings have limited exposure to foreign exchange volatility.
Based on our current asset class mix, a 10% variance in soft currencies against the dollar impacts fee-related earnings by only about 2%. As we head into the fourth quarter and we gain better visibility into our expected full year 2025 and 2026 results, we believe we are well on the way to delivering on our targets. With regard to fundraising, we are confident in our ability to exceed the high end of our 2025 full year target of $6.6 billion.
Additionally, as disclosed during our December 9, 2024 Investor Day, our objective is to raise $21 billion from 2025 through 2027, comprised of $6 billion of fundraising in 2025, $7 billion in 2026 and $8 billion in 2027. As we expect to exceed the $6.6 billion upper end of our previously upwardly reviewed 2025 guidance, this increases our confidence that we can surpass our announced 2026 targets of $7 billion.
Accordingly, we believe total fundraising for 2025 and 2026 combined could reach $14 billion. Considering our $8 billion fundraising target for 2027, we believe we are well positioned to exceed our total 3-year objective of $21 billion. As it relates to our full year fee-related earnings, we expect full year fee-related earnings to be slightly higher than the entry level of our fee-related earnings target range of $200 million to $225 million for 2025.
Additionally, as we look into the next year, we are introducing the 2026 fee-related earnings target range of $225 million to $245 million or $1.42 to $1.54 per share. When taking into account our share count guidance of 158 million to 160 million shares, our 2026 fee-related earnings objective reflects approximately 15% year-over-year growth in fee-related earnings per share at the midpoint of this range. Importantly, we remain comfortable with our fee-related earnings 2027 target range of $260 million to $290 million or $1.60 to $1.80 per share.
Finally, we are reaffirming our performance fee-related earnings target range of $120 million to $140 million from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the end of 2027, of which we already realized $42 million, and we expect to realize an additional approximate $15 million in the fourth quarter of this year.
Pulling this all together, our financial results and ongoing fundraising momentum provide additional evidence that our strategy to diversify and grow our business both organically and inorganically is paying off.
Now let me turn the call over to Ana to review our financial results in more detail. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Alex, and good morning, everyone. Over $50 billion in AUM is indeed a landmark to be proud of. And as Alex mentioned, our strong momentum continued as we raised $1.5 billion in the third quarter and $6 billion year-to-date.
Our fundraising success show how the strategic investments we have been making in our investment platforms, products and distribution capabilities are paying off. We entered the fourth quarter confident in our ability to achieve our objectives for this year.
Now let's review our third quarter results in more detail. In light of our robust fundraising year-to-date, we are well on track to exceed the high end of our full year target of $6.6 billion against a backdrop of increased global uncertainty and volatility.
Our fee AUM rose 14% year-over-year and 4% sequentially to approximately $38.8 billion. The strong year-over-year growth reflects the combination of solid organic net inflows of $1.8 billion, positive contribution from strong investment performance and the acquisition of the Brazilian REITs we discussed during our last earnings call and concluded this quarter.
Our fee-earning AUM growth continues to highlight our expanding fundraising capabilities and deployment opportunities, coupled with the stickiness and resiliency of our asset base. In addition, our fee-earning AUM is also benefiting from a declining rate of redemptions. Pending fee-earning AUM of $3.2 billion, combined with our fundraising goals, the 22% of fee AUM that are in permanent capital vehicles, the almost 35% of fee AUM in drawdown funds with an average life of 6 years and the overall stickiness of our asset base together highlight our ongoing ability to generate net organic fee AUM growth over time.
Total revenue in the third quarter reached $84.6 million, up 11% year-over-year and about 4% sequentially. This quarter included $1.3 million of catch-up fees. Our management fee rate averaged 94 basis points over the last trailing 4 quarters. As we reviewed at our December 9, 2024 Investor Day, we are steadily diversifying our business and introducing new investment strategies and product structures, which are key drivers of our growth.
Consequently, our management fee rate will continue to evolve, and we expect our fee rate to trend towards 90 basis points over the coming quarters, but with the potential to vary depending on the mix.
Moving on to operating expenses, which include personnel and G&A expenses, totaled approximately $34.4 million in the quarter, flat versus second quarter '25 and prior year. We remain focused on controlling expenses and capturing operating efficiency even as we continue to reinvest in the business.
Looking ahead, we believe the third quarter personnel and G&A expenses combined are a good baseline for the next quarter. Putting it all together, Patria delivered fee-related earnings of $49.5 million in the quarter, up 22% versus the prior year and 7% sequentially, with an FRE margin that rose more than 500 basis points versus the third quarter '24 and 170 basis points sequentially to 58.5%.
We remind everyone that the fourth quarter is often our strongest quarter in terms of FRE margin, driven by the recognition of most of our high-margin incentive fees from our credit and public equity platforms. We continue to expect the full year margin to fall within the range of our 58% to 60% guidance.
As Alex mentioned, as we enter the last quarter of the year and our visibility into the remainder of the 2025 improves, we expect fee-related earnings for the full year to be slightly above the entry level of our FRE target range of $200 million to $225 million.
Additionally, as Alex also noted, we expect to generate $225 million to $245 million of FRE in 2026, and we remain on track to deliver our 2027 FRE target of $260 million to $290 million with an FRE margin objective of 58% to 60% -- as a reminder, about 10% of our 2027 FRE target reflects future potential M&A.
Although we did not generate any performance-related earnings in the third quarter, subsequent to the quarter end, we had multiple monetization events in our Infrastructure Fund III, which we expect will generate approximately $15 million of pro forma-related earnings in the fourth quarter with the potential to move higher if we have additional monetizations over the remaining 2 months of the year.
We continue to expect Infrastructure III, which pro forma for the recent monetization had approximately $45 million of net accrued performance fees at the quarter end to be the main source of PRE through 2026.
Next, our net financial and other income and expenses in the third quarter '25 totaled a negative of $1 million versus a negative of $4 million in the second quarter 2025. This sequential improvement mainly reflects a greater contribution from Tria, our energy trading platform of $1.7 million in the quarter compared to $0.7 million in the second quarter '25.
Additionally, lower average debt over the course of the third quarter also contributed to the lower financial expense. As of the end of the third quarter, net debt totaled approximately $108 million, and our net debt to FRE ratio of 0.6x was well below our long-term guidance of 1x.
As we manage our cash flow and capital structure over the balance of the year, we expect our debt levels to remain relatively unchanged as we do not have any relevant M&A payment for this year. Our current deferred M&A-related cash payment through 2028 will be approximately $95 million, excluding potential earn-outs.
In addition, we entered to a total return swap, or TRS, with a financial institution during the third quarter, which under the terms of the swap, purchased 1.5 million shares on our behalf. We expect to settle the cost of the TRS by mid-'26 and transfer the shares to Patria, which we plan to retire. Our effective tax rate in the third quarter of 3.3% mainly reflects credits related to our U.K. operations.
We expect our tax rate over the coming years to hover around 10% annually, but will vary quarter-by-quarter, depending on the evolving mix of our business, although we expect 2025 to be below 10%. In the third quarter of '25, we generated $46.9 million of distributable earnings, up 34% versus third quarter '24 and DE per share of $0.30, up 31% year-over-year and 22% sequentially, mainly reflecting higher FRE helped by lower net financial and other income expense, lower tax and on a sequential basis, lower share count.
As I mentioned during our last earnings call, the Board of Directors voted to renew and increase our share repurchase program, and we have the authorization to repurchase up to 3 million shares. In the third quarter, Patria entered a total return swap with a financial institution, which under the terms of the swap purchased 1.5 million shares on our behalf.
Considering the nature of the TRS, we finished the quarter at 158 million shares and continue to expect the share count to average between 158 million and 160 million from 2025 to 2027, inclusive of additional share repurchase, which will be focused on offsetting stock-based compensation.
Finally, as announced during our December 9, 2024 Investor Day, the Board had approved an annual dividend of $0.60 per share for 2025. With that, we declared a dividend of $0.15 per share for the third quarter. Also, it is important to note that the Board has now approved a total annual dividend of $0.65 per share for 2026.
Overall, we are very pleased with our third quarter results and the momentum we have built as we continue to diversify and improve the resilience of our business. We believe we are on track to meet the various targets we shared with you, and we are excited regarding the growth opportunity that lies ahead of us.
Thank you for everyone for dialing in, and we are now ready to answer your questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Rodrigo Ferreira at Bank of America.
2. Question Answer
You've raised $6 billion year-to-date and are on track to exceed the $6.6 billion full year target. Given the strong momentum, how are you thinking about the pacing of capital deployment, especially with the $3.2 billion in pending fee-earning AUM?
Thanks for the question. Thanks for participating in the call. No, really, we've been very excited with the $6.6 billion raise up to the third quarter of '25. As I mentioned during the call, last 12 months, we did raise $6.9 billion. That's why we feel comfortable with $6 billion, sorry, to the end of the third quarter.
Guidance was $6.6 billion. Last 12 months, $6.9 billion. So that's why we feel comfortable that we are probably going to beat the $6.6 billion new guidance. We have over $3 billion of pending paying AUM, but I think over the next 12 to 18 months, we should deploy that. We do have a very active pipeline, mostly in infrastructure.
Most of this earnings -- fee-paying AUM, Rodrigo, comes from our infrastructure efforts as we did raise in 2025, finished rating our flagship vintage Fund V for infrastructure of approximately $2.9 billion. So most of that capital will come from investing in our infrastructure new Vintage, Vintage Fund V.
In addition to the co-investment vehicles that are paying fees together with the infrastructure closed-end Fund V. Also, we did raise capital that's pending for us to invest, which is in the GPMS and also the DPMS, mostly the secondaries, our secondary strategy. We envision to invest along the next 12 to 18 months as well. So most of this fee-ping AUM fee AUM should be invested over the next 12 to 18 months. I hope I answered your question.
No, that was great. And then for my follow-up, can you give us an update on how you're thinking about inorganic growth at this moment? I know we have the $14 billion Investor Day guidance. But at this moment, what asset classes or geographies are you most interested in?
Yes. Well, we had guided that we would try not to do any acquisitions in 2025, but we will try then to restart with our acquisition efforts end of '25, '26. Of course, it's easier said than done. I joke that sometimes the mergers and acquisitions, M&A is a mystery and annguish, right? You don't never know when you're going to sign a deal.
But jokes aside, I think we managed to do that. Now we're finishing '25 because we wanted to have a full 4 quarters, 6 quarters of no M&A. As we mentioned, the last 12 months, the last 4 quarters, all the numbers that we just posted are pure organic fundraising, organic growth, organic related numbers.
And we wanted to have that pause to show us and of course, investors and stakeholders that our strategy was working that the acquisitions that we did were being integrated. You saw that we are very, very disciplined on the cost level of -- you can see it in the third quarter results, and you're going to see it in the full year results. So this was an important as a checkpoint that we paused, we integrated, we fundraised for these new asset classes that we acquired.
We controlled costs, et cetera. As we move into '26 and '27, we would like to turn on then the inorganic expansion, which is important for us to complement our menu offering to also complement our geography footprint. And what we see going on right now is most of the activity is in the real estate and credit arenas. So these two asset classes are the ones that are with negotiations in a more advanced phase coming then in third place, our infrastructure-related also strategies.
So -- and of course, it has to do as well, I think, with the strategies that have been performing the best in fundraising and the best in interest level from our clients. On the geography side, I think we will -- as we mentioned all the way back, I think our GPMS Global Private Market Solutions that we did buy as a carve-out from the asset manager, Aberdeen, was a mostly European-focused business, 2/3 of the business is European focused.
And we would like to expand our U.S. side of this business to become more of a global solutions provider for private equity, primary, secondaries and co-invest. So U.S. would be a geography that we are looking into. I think the acquisition that we're going to do there is not going to be very substantial. That's why it's forced in the list of relevance.
I go back to the infrastructure and real estate -- credit and real estate and then comes infrastructure -- then comes GPMS on relevant size, geography, U.S., mostly GPMS and Mexico, mostly real estate and credit. So in order of importance, again, just repeating here to be redundant, I'm sorry, credit, real estate, then comes infrastructure, then comes GPMS, geography, U.S. and Mexico as new geographies, and we continue to enhance our presence, of course, in the geographies that we already exist, mainly in Brazil.
We are trying to spearhead and be a protagonist of this consolidation of the industry. We see several asset managers in our industry pushing that agenda from the mega ones to the large ones. And now with a $50 billion asset manager, I think we joined the club of the other $50 billion asset managers.
So I think we have the mega ones managing close to $1 trillion. Then there's a second group of around 20 that managed globally between $100 billion and $300 billion. And then we come with this third group, which is -- we're # 31 now globally, 30, 31. Of course, so the second group of $50 billion asset managers, all of us actually pushing this consolidation agenda. Interesting that these $50 billion managers, they have a geographic also origin.
Some of them are -- have Asian origins. Another has a Middle Eastern origin. We have two Europeans. We have a couple of Americans and us, I think the only Latin that does exactly what we do, pursuing this consolidation agenda in their respective regions of origin, first and foremost, in our case, Latin America, of course. And then, of course, trying also to expand globally with one or two asset classes or strategies. In our case, GPMS was the chosen one. So I hope I answered your question, Rodrigo.
Our next question comes from Tito Labarta at Goldman Sachs.
A couple of questions. Just on the FRE guidance for this year, you mentioned you'd like to be slightly above the lower end of the range. Just looking at the trends right now, if FRE is similar in 4Q, you'd be around $188 million. Should we assume that the difference to get you to above that $200 million would mostly come from the incentive fees that you most typically get in 4Q? Or would there be any other potential upside that we could see in 4Q other than the incentive fees? And then I have a second question.
Thanks, Tito. Nice talking to you, and thanks for participating in our call. I think that both, I think mainly the numbers that you just went through there, I think, makes sense.
We expect around $10 million to $12 million coming from incentive fees, and that's a relevant portion of the FRE contributor for the fourth quarter of 2025. In addition, but not at this level of relevance in absolute dollar terms, we have more FIE coming from management fees because the management fees is being driven by the fundraising that we just described during our earnings call and answering Rodrigo's question.
All of that fundraising is already translating into more management fees and that management fees, it's the same team basically that we had in the third quarter. So that actually then flows down to fee-related earnings. But -- in absolute value importance, you are correct. I think that $10 million, $12 million coming from incentive fees is number one contributor for us to then surpass the $200 million of FRE, which is the entry level of our guidance.
Coming second, the contribution from the fundraising that is translating into fee earnings, fee-related earnings in the fourth quarter that we have more fee earnings AUM in the fourth quarter than we had in the third, more in the third than we had in the second and so on and so forth because we are managing to fundraise more than what we expected.
I'll give you one example here just to know also using your question here to throw in another interesting subject that I would like to cover. We didn't cover this in the call because we got that we got that news late last night, our data center platform. So I'm using your question here also to make this release of information here, Tito, but it has to do with your question.
As of yesterday, the Brazilian government did approve a very interesting regulatory framework that basically enables exporting data from these incentivized areas in Brazil in an incentivized tax framework. Basically, you don't pay taxes as data center exports data. So the data that is processed in these data centers in Brazil have this very interesting tax advantage.
And also if you import the machinery equipment to build a data center, you also don't pay any import tariffs. Brazil is kind of mimicking what other regions in the world did like in Malaysia and Singapore, et cetera, to attract these massive data center-related investments. And so I think the Brazilian government is in the forefront in the vanguard of this regulatory framework by approving the legislation as of yesterday.
And of course, an additional advantage of actually building these data centers in Brazil is the vast availability of renewable energy and also the low consumption of water and recycling water that we have in our specific design data center design.
And of course, you know about the renewable energy in Brazil and in our project per se that is actually will leverage on this regulatory framework approved by the Brazilian government of. And of course, we have been working with the Brazilian government very intensively over the last quarters. We already have an offtaker, a relevant offtaker to build a 200 mega data center that consumes around 300 mega of energy.
We already have the energy provider, in this case, is Casa dos Ventos, 100% renewable. And we also have several of the licenses and mainly and most importantly, to connect our data center to the substations that actually are connected to the submarine cables. The real estate that we actually have already identified and already optioned is very close to the submarine cables that connect the Brazilian coastline with the major regions of the world.
And that submarine cables help on the -- in reducing the latency of actually processing that data in the data centers in Brazil. And we're putting up $2 billion of construction infrastructure. The offtake is putting up approximately $8 billion. So it's a $10 billion project. We can threefold, fourfold, fivefold that because it's a 200 there is potential for us to increase that with the same offtaker, which the offtaker has the interest actually to more than double.
We also have the interest to continue investing in that project, and we can actually work with other offtakers as well. If you see that we do have -- we do manage approximately on fee-paying AUM going back to Rodrigo's questions and your question on FREs and revenues.
For our infrastructure vertical, we are managing around $4 billion, $4.5 billion of fee earning AUM. We can basically double that with the fee-paying SMAs dedicated to these data center platform. So extremely interesting. We also did the same kind of SMA joint venture framework to invest in toll roads in Brazil, also through our infrastructure vertical, also answering Rodrigo's question, that will take on then, of course, the AUM raised for our infrastructure vintage #5 and invest and then turning that into fee earnings AUM and revenues.
We won a couple of toll roads through this JV that we call [indiscernible] or Union Unified that has not only Infrastructure Fund V, but has other very, very important large institutional investors of ours, mainly sovereign funds investing in that platform.
We, again, won two concessions through that platform, and we see that we can continue going on that can become it's $1 billion commitment, but it can become 3, 4, fivefold that as we look into the future. So we see these platforms in toll roads, which is already up and running and already won two concessions in data centers where we have this project that I just described and the company there is called Omnia.
And we see other potential platforms that infrastructure-related platforms throughout Latin America where we can actually then co-invest with our infrastructure fund or just have a JV kind of framework, an SMA kind of framework to invest significant amount of money in infrastructure-related projects in Latin America.
And all of that actually transforms then because all of them are fee paying Tito and Rodrigo, all of that transforms into fee earning AUM that actually then fuels our revenues and our numbers going forward. So as we look into '26 and '27, we feel comfortable that we will continue with that good pace of fundraising and good pace of FRE increase that we went through during the call today. Thank you. Sorry to take a long answer to your question on using the data center depot, Tito, but I think that was important.
Yes. No, very helpful. And then just one other quick question on your performance fees. I mean I think you mentioned Infrastructure III sort of the main likely place where you can maybe realize some performance fees in the near term.
In the past, we've seen 4Q, we typically are able to realize them? Just any color you can give on your ability to realize some of these performance fees in the short term?
Yes. After the end of the third quarter, so into October of 2025, we did have some realization events that we highlighted during the call, pushing -- increasing our performance-related earnings by $15 million. We had a small number up to the end of the third quarter of $1 million.
So that actually adds to the $15 million. So we're now looking to $16 million of performance-related fees for this year-to-date end of October. As we look into November and December, we're very active on realizations. So potentially, we're going to have more realizations from our Infrastructure Fund III in the last 60 days of the year.
However, as you know, I don't want to be repetitive on my joke here, but mergers and acquisitions also means misery and languish in some cases. And so they're signing the deal or something happens, the deal then slides to be signed early 2026. It's part of the game.
So that's why we like to give more of a broader kind of view on timing as far as realization of performance fees are concerned. So into 2026 and of course, 2027, we still see the $120 million to $140 million out of which we already did deliver around $45 million. And so we still have some that might happen end of this year, but we see a very good pace and the quality of the investors also very, very high quality as we are being able to attract strategic foreign investors that are coming into the region.
We're going to see the French toll road operator in their first incursion into Brazil was buying one of our toll roads. We also had Indigo, which is another French parking lot operator that bought into our parking lot company called [ Paque Bain ] and so on and so forth.
So -- and so very, very high-quality sovereign funds also buying into our assets. So very interesting in quality of investors and bringing money into Brazil to be able to buy our assets. And you see that the whole theory here is actually turning into reality as it has for the last 25 years in infrastructure. We have development funds.
And then once the asset is developed, we sell to strategic investors. That can be sovereign funds that take a role of strategic investors and can be also pure strategic investors. We see that as well coming along now closer to 2025 now, Tito, not '26. Some of our private equity-related strategies also with a high probability of generating performance fees.
In this case, specifically, we see our growth funds and our venture funds have been able to generate interesting performance fees later in the 3-year plan period, which is into 2027. So we're probably going to see Infrastructure Fund III realizing most of its performance fees during '26.
And as we look into '27, we see some PE-related private equity-related funds in a good moments to realize investments as some of these investments are already mature and we start actually looking into realizations and building into that performance fee.
For example, we recently sold two assets from our growth fund. One is an online psychology-driven business, psychology sessions-driven business that we actually sold and merged into another company. And then we sold our online education business as well. And as you sell these businesses, they build into then return principle and hurdle and after that, you start generating fees.
So as I see the realizations from these funds already happening, I mentioned 2 examples this year 2025, I see other deals that we're working on that we're probably going to realize from these funds in '26, building in to deliver back capital to investors and then performance fees in 2027.
So I can -- I have a lot more of a 24 to 36 months advanced look because I see the realizations building up and getting close to the principal and hurdle. And then we have the whole catch-up as we have right now for Infrastructure Fund III. So more PE-related strategies for 2027, more infrastructure-related strategies for '25 and '26. I hope I answered your question.
Our next question comes from Ricardo Buchpiguel at BTG.
Can you please provide an update on how the cross-sell of the GPMS products to Pat LP should evolve over the next few years? The vertical is now growing around like 8% year-over-year, the AUM. So it will be interesting also to hear what we can in terms of potential acceleration over the next, I don't know, 3 years without considering M&A on this vertical?
Yes. Ricardo, thanks for participating, and thanks for your question. I think it's a -- when we did the acquisition, we saw a couple of phases into raising money from all of our client base. I think Phase 1 was to gain the confidence from the current clients, right?
I think we, as a Latin origin company, buying a business in the U.K. Of course, we did the diligence before that, and we saw that -- and we heard from the clients we did, of course, interviews with these clients, blinded and nonblinded interviews with the main clients of this business, Ricardo, and a lot of thumbs up. They really like the team. And they were saying, of course, depending on the buyer, we would actually, of course, support that new buyer.
So Phase 1 was actually getting back to these clients post closing, which we did, which was, as you know, we did -- we took over the business in April of 2024, so a year or something ago. And that actually went very well. You can see the kind of how do clients actually respond to that in a concrete manner. They don't redeem and they invest more, right?
They invest more with you because they're happy and they don't redeem because they're happy. And that's what happened. I think over the last 12 to 14 months or 15 months, everything worked well. We saw clients actually re-upping. We saw 4 hours special secondaries opportunities in Fund #5, which is a blind structured fund.
We saw SMAs continue to be beef up with new money and renewed and so on and so forth. Then I think we started with, I think, secondaries opportunities # 5 fundraising to attract new clients, new clients from our base and clients that were not in our base of clients or -- and we've been able to be successful, and we are very well on plan to be able to have secondaries opportunities Fund to reach its target, and I think it's going to exceed its target.
We were targeting around $500 million for that. And I think we already see that kind of that number. So it's not very common these days. for a blind structure funds to hit the targets. And I think we're going to surpass it. I think we're going to surpass it in 10% to 20% of that number, which is rare. It's not very common for private equity related strategies, in this case, is a secondary strategy to hit the number that it announces in its -- when we say in its front cover page of the prospectus.
And it's even more rare for actually funds to overcome that number. And we're going to do it. I think we're going to overcome that number in 10% to 20%, as I just mentioned. So that was the second phase and the real test, as I say, is clients actually give you more money. And that's what they did for secondaries opportunities from #5. And not only from our own base, but we had clients that were not even our clients, which is because we had a new product to offer.
And so we are happy. So we are in Phase #2, we're living Phase #2. Of course, Phase #3, we're going to launch more products from this -- from the GPMS structure. We have ahead of us so many new strategies that we're thinking about a blind fund structure, a pure co-investment fund that we are thinking about starting to launch early next year.
So we have the SMAs that invest in private equity primaries, secondaries and co-invest. Then several years ago, the Aberdeen team actually did spin off the secondary strategy and started raising blind structured funds, Fund I, II, III and now we're raising Fund V, as I mentioned a couple of minutes ago. When we take a look at their co-investment track record that they did over 100 co-investments through the SMAs, amazing track record, 16% to 20% net IRRs.
So we are then pulling that off. We're, of course, working to show the investors the fantastic track record that the team actually delivered with that specific strategy and then actually raised a closed-end fund. So it's going to be our co-investment fund #1. And we see some traction, and we're taking that to the road early next year.
So that's Phase #3 to have a new product with the same investors and new investors. And so -- so we're pretty happy that, that's working on well. And I can mention several other products that are also in our pipeline that actually derives from the GPMS strategies. We can have a credit fund that actually works in the same kind of mid-market level.
We can have actually a GP stake fund like Diodes of the world or whatever. So other -- so many new products and exciting new things that we can do over the next years. I mentioned a blind fund structure investment fund as an example.
On the Latin American side, we continue to raise a very important absolute value from Latin American investors into our GPMS products, less so because we are bringing them now into our strategy. But to other global asset managers that we do represent in the region, Carlyle being one, as you guys know. And we have been very successful with that strategy in 2025, raising significant amount of money with Latin American institutional investors, mainly into Carlyle-related funds, working with AlpInvest, which is the solutions provider for Carlyle, helping us actually develop solutions for our institutional clients in LatAm.
We're also looking to represent eventually other global alternative asset managers to sell for our Latin clients. And -- so happy with that as well. So no, I can't complain. I think it's -- we were well accepted by the GPMS clients. And again, as I mentioned, the best way for our clients to say that they are happy with you is to put more money in the new fund or a new strategy and not redeem. And that's what's been happening. And I think we're going to have great news to report during 2026 in these fronts. I hope I answered your question for you.
That's clear. And for my follow-up question on capital return, it would be interesting if you could provide more color on the total return swap mechanism you mentioned in the call and also give more details on the rationale for the 0.65 per share dividend that you also announced for next year.
No. Thank you for those 2 questions. Well, the TRS is a very interesting way of actually to execute a share buyback program, right? And I'll give you my comments on it. So just take a couple of steps back, late last year, we did -- our Board approved a $3 million share buyback program. I think it was early this year, I'm sorry.
Late last year, we did approve -- the Board approved $1.5 million, and then it increased to 3 million shares share buyback program early this year. When we looked into -- as the CEO and the management team, together with Ana, our CFO, when we looked into alternatives to execute this share buyback program, the 3 million share buyback program, we saw and concluded that the TRS total return swap, I think, was one of the most interesting ones.
First of all, you do, I think, for confidentiality reasons, for conflict reasons, you do outsource the execution of the share buyback to a third party, in this case, to a financial institution. So you give the financial institution a plan, an order and you set up a plan, how you're going to buy amount of shares during this period. And we are completely out of the execution.
So as far as conflict is concerned, as far as any type of execution risks are concerned, the company is completely exempt from that. So this is, I think, it is a very pure way of doing something, which the financial institution has a predetermined plan, and we will execute the plan with no interference whatsoever from the company.
And so number one, no confidentiality; number two, managing very well compliance conflicts of interest. Then it comes to the financial, I think, advantages a bit that as you do buy the shares that we have, of course, a cost of -- it's like a loan from a bank, but we don't have to -- we don't have the obligation to actually pay that loan in a year from now, for example, because you could actually have the option to ask the financial institutions to sell down the shares and repay that loan.
Of course, if the shares are now traded at a lower value, we are -- we're going to have to pay the difference. But that's another because it's an asset backed, right, the financial institution does have that asset in this case, the shares and they can sell those shares back into the market. And during the process of buying these shares, the dividends of these shares are flowing back to the company to Patria.
So the net cost is the interest rate that they charge, the financial institution charges minus the dividends. So therefore, a year from now, of course, the cost of actually us having to finance this loan is lower than a pure loan. So it's pretty interesting if we had then, of course, bought the shares and actually canceled those shares, the shares wouldn't have any dividends.
But no, we actually then -- the shares is held by the financial institutions. The dividends paid to these shares are netted from the interest expense. So I think the first two reasons are the majority of the reason why we decided for it, confidentiality, execution, the low risk of execution, et cetera, and financially very interesting.
So that's why we went through a total reserve swap and we did buy -- we did -- the financial institution did buy 5 million shares during the third quarter, and that's why we now have 158 million share count as of the end of September 2025.
On the $0.65 per share, I think we wanted to keep on transferring part of our growth in revenues, in fee-related earnings in distributable earnings to the shareholders. And we looked into lower interest rates in the U.S., which have now treasury bill is running at 75% per year.
And we do the math of actually raising our dividends by approximately 10%, will be 66%, but 65 and we rounded the number to 65 -- and if you do the math, if you want to get a dividend yield similar to what the U.S. Treasury is paying in the short term, we should then actually not only transfer more dividends, more money to our shareholders, but also plus a share buyback program, right, but also give the stock a support level that should push the stock up to around $17, $17.3, which is the $0.65 is 3.75% of $17.3.
So also supports a growth in our stock price. If -- as I talk to shareholders, they kind of tell me that they have this framework in mind. They look at the low the short term, sorry, interest rates paid by the U.S. government. They look at our dividend yield plus the growth that we are delivering.
So it's a dividend yield that actually mimics the short-term U.S. treasury yield plus the growth of 15% per annum to 20% per annum. So that's the combination plus the share buyback program that we just announced. So that combination should then give our share price not only support, but should actually help it increase as we move forward. So that's the rationale, Ricardo. I hope I answered your question here.
This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Alex Saigh, Patria's CEO.
Thank you, Rina. Well, thank you very much, all of participants. I was extremely happy to be able to answer so many interesting questions and very happy that all of you participated.
Again, we had a solid third quarter, looking to a very solid, very positive 2025 and even more so into 2026, '27, feel comfortable that we're going to deliver our PAC Day in December 2024 announced PAC Day numbers guidelines.
So thanks again for your patience. Thanks for participating. I hope to see you in person until the end of the year, trying to organize a couple of roadshows and in-person meetings in Sao Paulo and New York and London. And hopefully, I'll see you in one of these three meetings and roadshows. See you soon. Thanks a lot. Bye-bye.
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.
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Patria Investments — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Patria Investments — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Gesamt-AUM: Über $50 Mrd. zum Quartalsende; ~3.5x seit IPO 2021.
- Fee-AUM: $38,8 Mrd (+14% YoY, +4% QoQ).
- Umsatz: $84,6 Mio (+11% YoY), inkl. $1,3 Mio Catch-up Fees.
- Fee-related Earnings (FRE): $49,5 Mio (+22% YoY, +7% QoQ); FRE je Aktie $0,31 (+19% YoY).
- Distributable Earnings: $46,9 Mio ($0,30 je Aktie; +31% YoY).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Fundraising-Fokus: $1,5 Mrd in Q3, $6,0 Mrd YTD; Management erwartet Übertreffen des oberen Ziels von $6,6 Mrd für 2025.
- Produkt- und geografische Diversifizierung: Ausbau von Infrastruktur, Credit und GPMS; Ausbau in Europa und USA geplant, gezielte M&A ab Ende 2025/2026.
- Kapitalallokation: TRS für Rückkauf (1,5 Mio Aktien), Board genehmigt Rückkauf bis 3 Mio Aktien; Dividendenerhöhung 2026 auf $0,65 angekündigt.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- 2025 FRE: Erwartung leicht über unterer Grenze der Guidance von $200–225 Mio.
- 2026 FRE: Ziel $225–245 Mio (≈$1,42–$1,54/Aktie) bei 158–160 Mio Aktien (Guidance).
- 2027 Ziel: $260–290 Mio FRE; FRE-Marge Ziel 58–60%.
- Performance Fees: Ziel $120–140 Mio (Q4’24–Ende 2027); ~$15 Mio erwartete Monetarisierungen in Q4; Timing unsicher.
- Bilanz: Nettoverbindlichkeiten ~ $108 Mio; Netto‑Debt/FRE 0,6x (weit unter 1x Ziel).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Deployment-Pacing: $3,2 Mrd anstehende fee‑earning AUM sollen überwiegend in 12–18 Monaten investiert werden, v.a. Infrastruktur und Co‑Invests.
- M&A-Prioritäten: Management nennt Credit und Real Estate vorn, danach Infrastruktur; US- und Mexiko-Expansionsmöglichkeiten für GPMS.
- Performance‑Fee-Timing: Infrastruktur Fund III soll Hauptquelle 2025–26 sein; Management erwartet weitere Realisationen, warnt aber vor Timing‑Risiken.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Starke Fundraising‑Dynamik und sichtbare FRE‑Margenexpansion stützen die mittelfristige Wachstumsstory; Dividende und Rückkauf geben Aktienrückhalt. Wichtige Unsicherheit bleibt das Timing zusätzlicher Performance‑Fees und die erfolgreiche Umsetzung geplanter M&A‑Akquisitionen.
Patria Investments — Special Call - Patria Investments Limited
1. Management Discussion
Hello, everyone. I'm Andre Medina, leading Shareholder Relations at Patria, and welcome to the third edition of our PAX Talks, an investor-driven deep dive into our Global Private Market Solutions business or GPMS and how we generate Alpha in middle market private equity. We are very happy to have with us today leading the Q&A, Charles Keenan. Charles is the portfolio management along Life Capital, where he has led the firm's public markets portfolio since 2018. He previously worked at Blackstone and holds a Bachelor's degree from MIT.
From Patria, we are very pleased to welcome Merrick Mckay, Partner and Head of Private Equity for GPMS. Merrick is a member of our Management Committee and the GPMS Investment Committee. He's an advisory Board member of numerous funds, a regular speaker at private equity conferences and a Board member of Invest Europe, Europe's private equity trade body. An Australian with British dual nationality, Merrick has over 30 years of experience in the European private equity industry.
This will be a fireside chat Q&A format. If you have questions, each of you will have the opportunity to submit them, and we will try to get through as many as we can. Of course, before we get started, I have to make some introductory remarks and before I make some introductory remarks, I have to read the obligatory forward-looking statement. So I would like to remind everyone that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain, do not guarantee future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them.
Patria assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on current management expectations and involve risks, including those discussed in the risk factors of the latest Form 20-F annual report. Also note that no statements on this call constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Patria fund. Okay.
With that out of the way, let me start by framing and putting some perspective on our GPMS platform and why it is important to our investors before turning it over to Charles and Merrick. Our Global Private Market Solutions business as of the second quarter had $13.9 billion of AUM, of which $11.4 billion were fee-earning AUM, $1.4 billion were pending fee-earning AUM and $3 billion were uncalled capital. The platform invests mainly in middle market, private equity primaries, secondaries and co-investments in Europe and to a lesser extent in the U.S., offering its clients multiple products and structures, including SMAs, commingled funds and listed -- a listed trust.
The listed trust, Patria Private Equity Trust or PPET, is traded at the London Stock Exchange and represents over $1.6 billion of permanent capital fee-earning AUM to Patria. Since April 2024, when Patria closed the carve-out acquisition of Aberdeen's middle market private equity solution business, which was the base for the creation of this strategy, it has raised over $3.5 billion.
From a financial perspective, as of the second quarter, the business generated approximately 17% of our management fee revenues, and we definitely view GPMS as a key component of our growth strategy. On our December 9 Investor Day, we indicated that we believe GPMS fee-earning AUM can -- close to double within the next 3 years. With that as a backdrop, let me now turn it over to Charles and Merrick. Guys, thank you for doing this, and it's all yours.
Wonderful. Well, thanks, Andre, for that Introduction. Merrick, we don't have a ton of time, but it would be great to just hear a bit about your background. How did you end up running the Private Market Solutions business at Aberdeen?
Thanks, Charles, and thanks for the introduction, Andre. So I'll try and keep this short. As Andre mentioned, Australian dual British nationality. So I came over to the U.K. in 1992. I got a job in a -- like a corporate finance advisory advising in the private equity market, 5 years doing that, then 13 years as a direct investor in a company called Primary Capital, which was very much low mid-market private equity, a bit of a midlife crisis in 2010, didn't know what else to do and ended up joining Macquarie for a short period of time to join the dark side as being an LP.
Back then quickly moved into that business joining what was called Standard Life Capital Partners, part of Standard Life, a very large U.K. institution and been investing in European and U.S. private equity for many, many years. In 2017 -- so it was 2014. In 2017, Standard Life and Aberdeen Asset Management, two -- again, large Scottish institutions merged. Both businesses had private equity divisions, and so that came together.
And I was leading the European business of that from 2019 onwards. I think we'll come on to a bit that -- I think after a few years there, it was pretty apparent that Aberdeen probably wasn't the right home for what we did for various reasons. And so the decision was taken certainly with our support that we should seek a new owner. So hopefully, that's helpful.
Yes. No, that's great. And good segue. So walk us through how the carve-out came about. When did you start talking to the Patria guys? And just starting at the beginning, what's the story of that transaction?
Yes. So try to keep it succinct. When -- there were a number of things that we needed as a business to succeed in the future and taking sort of being ownership agnostic about it, we really put it to Aberdeen and say, here are the things that we need to succeed if a lot of this was around distribution. I think that as many would recognize that the public market model is very, very different to private markets. So that needs a separate type of process.
There were challenges around, we needed investment in systems and in people. So it was really a decision either you need to invest in that or we need to go elsewhere. So they took the quite reasonable decision to seek an exit. I think at that point in time, it was looking to put us with some other parts of the business just to sell, which we thought was going to be pretty challenging. And after a period of time, came back to really just our part of the business, which was principally the European private equity business, but with a small part of U.S., which I'll come back to.
What was interesting for us is, with one exception, I would say, every client that we had were really backing our team. We had very close relationships. We talked to our clients all the time. We made them aware of where we were on things. They were -- we were very mindful of wherever we needed to be, that need to be somewhere that they were happy with. But really, it was the other way around. I think their view was they would be happy if we were happy.
So it put us in a really, I think, strong position. There was no way this is a people business that you can go and sell that over our heads. And so it gave us a very strong position in the sense of who we're talking to and how that came about. So that was very helpful. I think candidly, when Patria's names were mentioned, I'm sort of embarrassed to say that I think a lot of the team hadn't heard of Patria. And our initial thoughts were Patria LatAm direct business. Why?
But we listened and there are a number of things that over time, I think really resonated with us on how they -- how they're approaching this, how they view the opportunity, particularly around LatAm looking outside, very entrepreneurial. And so -- and able to move very, very quickly. So we got really comfortable with Patria and vice versa.
So coming back to that timing, I think, gels our discussions, I think, with Patria really started in earnest -- in early 2023. I think there was exclusivity in mid-2023 the -- we signed -- I think the transaction was signed in October 2023 and then completed -- it was quite a long period for regulatory reasons and investor consent and so forth and completed in April last year.
Great. And let's double-click on the LPs there. So how did the LPs think about the transaction? What rights do they have in the -- given the change of control, if we had 5 of the LPs around the table when we're talking to them, what would they say about the journey? And yes...
So I think you can put them in 2 very broad buckets. Firstly, the majority of our business currently -- clients is with SMAs and you can almost forget about the idea of change of control. The beauty of a separate managed account for many large investors is they can modify what they're doing at any point in time. It's their vehicle. And they can -- if they don't like what we're doing, they can effectively give us notice. So not even a change of control. They simply have to be happy with what you're doing for the whole time. So again, you have a close relationship with them.
On the other side, there were a number of our pool products, have specific change of control consents and you have to go through that process. But again, the nature of our business is we're talking to those investors all the time and making sure that they're happy with what they do. It's a high degree of transparency.
So with one exception, I said before, every client that we really had within Aberdeen viewed us as a team. There was one client that actually was an Aberdeen relationship and was the only mandate or client that didn't actually transfer or sought to do something else post acquisition. So very, very high success rate in that, that's what we expected.
And I guess just for context, how many clients roughly do you have?
So I think in terms of SMA clients, we have about 20, I think, that are meaningful and are still working. And then we have a number of different pool products at different stages with clearly numerous underlying investors.
Makes sense. And I guess give us a flavor for who are your LPs, who are your clients? And why would they would choose to partner with the private market solutions business versus just saying, okay, I want to allocate this amount of money to private equity. I'm going to give it to -- give all of it to some big private equity manager.
You can spend a lot of time talking about that. Again, let's separate that into 2 different areas. So if we think about something like a pool product and one that we -- that's been very successful for us for a period of time were called SOF series, Secondary Opportunities Fund series, which is just finished investing its fourth vintage, has been very, very successful.
So that's out there effectively, I think, if you like, competing, it's a secondaries vehicle. And so inevitably, when you're talking to investors, there are people who would be wanting to invest in a pool product as opposed to something else. I think by definition, they are attracted to the secondaries market. And so there's inevitability that they'll be comparing what your offering is against other secondary managers.
On the other hand, as I mentioned before, a lot of our businesses with SMAs. So these will typically be investors who are large enough and sophisticated enough to want to have a strategy which is targeted at a certain area that we have expertise in, but don't have the teams or the people to be able to execute that themselves. And you can get a broad range of solutions there. So we have, for instance, a U.S. public pension plan that is very taken by and fundamentally believes in the mid-market as a place to be investing.
From a U.S. perspective, they're very comfortable with covering that themselves. But when they look at Europe, they realize there's no way they can do that. And so they want to work with somebody who can provide that offering, and we work very closely with them. That would be one example. Another one would be a Dutch pension plan who is, again, taken very much with the lower end market, but has a very specific aspect of what it's looking to do.
Initially, we only -- they only wanted to make primary commitments into funds of under EUR 1.5 billion in size. And they didn't want to hear that, oh, we've got 6 great managers this year and 2 the next. They want to have absolute strict vintage diversification with 4 effectively picks per year. So it really does vary. But what tends to happen is, the clients will have an idea about what they're looking to do, and they'll be marrying it up with effectively our skill set and our ability to do that for them.
If we zoom out at a high level, is it too simplistic to think about -- think that the decision kind of comes down to scale, where if an allocator wants exposure to European middle market and they don't have the scale history or expertise to have -- built out the team themselves and develop the relationships over decades like you have that a private market solutions manager like yourself makes sense. Is that kind of the crux of it? Or is there something else too?
I'd say generally, that is the case. When we're looking at the separate managed accounts market, for us now, it's -- where does it start making sense for someone to think about that? And typically, it would be probably $50 million to $100 million is what makes sense from a vehicle and from a cost perspective, and that gives them the ability then to have a very tailored approach.
So again, how does that fit in effectively with the private equity or private markets allocation of that investor is looking to do? A bit it's interesting. In the past, for instance -- we have a number of years ago, managed investments for CalPERS. So CalPERS again knew that it was making very, very large tickets or investments. I could do that itself, but recognize again, maybe from a European context, that was very difficult for them to do.
So there's someone who is -- you would argue is a very, very sophisticated private equity investor, but just recognizing that it needs that on-the-ground presence -- so I'd say scale is definitely a big part of it. But one of the developments in our market, we've come from effectively the fund of funds market, which was, again, large funds, very pretty much straight jacketed with what they could do -- with what people could do. Now I think people can -- or institutions can have a highly tailored program for a lot less than they would have probably 10 or 15 years ago.
Interesting. And you touched on that, a number of the clients have a specific view that they want middle market exposure -- European middle market exposure, have a view that, that is somehow unique or better. Walk us through why the middle market, what are the benefits? Why have you focused the business there over time?
So I think it's -- for us, again, having been in the market for many, many years and having invested initially in people that were very small and have now become mega managers, we've seen a lot over a long period of time. What we have seen specifically is the mid-market has generated superior returns than the large cap or mega cap market over time. I'll come back to talk about this in a minute around cash flow dynamics.
And so the first thing is the returns are fundamentally better. If it didn't, we wouldn't have an private offering because so many managers -- investors can effectively make those large mega cap investment decisions themselves. It's not difficult to do. It's low value add from our perspective. Why is the middle market a better place to be for investment returns? It's a target-rich environment. There are this lower pricing and leverage. There's far more growth opportunities open to these managers, far more exit optionality. There's lower correlation with public markets.
And one of the things that has really developed since the last financial crisis, particularly from a European perspective, has been the sector specialization and the genuine operational value add that managers can do now at a much smaller level. So again, maybe 10 or 15 years ago, the operational value add that people were doing was to have the larger mega cap players. Now that's really gone right down into smaller managers with very specific sub, subsector strategies.
From a European context now, for instance, rather than in the past, we would have been thinking about things, portfolio construction maybe from a geographic level, now we can construct things on a very sectoral level. And that ability to add value is a bit of a trite term in that mid-market has just pervaded for a long period of time. One of the challenges I think we and others who focused on the mid-market have had for a period of time is that, a lot of investors say, yes, okay, I recognize that the returns may be better. But actually, the returns in the large mega cap end of the market have been really good for an extended period of time.
So do I need to get that extra return for something that, by definition, even if they take us on, requires more effort. What I think we've seen over the past few years is the tide has absolutely turned in that market because you're now seeing private equity returns reduce over time. Again, I think over time, at a premium by definition to public markets, but not at the excessive premium that we were seeing a few years ago. And so I think that's now forcing people to really look at that area much more.
I mean it's interesting. I think if you -- something like 50% of private equity fundraising is in funds of $5 billion plus. I think it's very easy to do that. I think it's 80% in funds of $2 billion plus. The other thing that has really changed a lot of late and a lot of investors are really struggled with this is, the cash-on-cash returns have been coming back from private equity investors.
LPs for a number of years were doing really well up to and just after 2020. They were getting very high returns and very high distributions coming back and people putting more and more money into the market. And this is right across the scene. What we've really seen over the past few years has been a marked drop off in distribution activity at the large and mega cap end of the market.
The IPOs have dried up. They're more reliant on debt to have exits, but sovereign wealth funds haven't been there. Whereas in the mid-market, distributions have definitely declined as well, but have actually held up much more than that part of the market. And so that's something now I think a lot of investors have really focused on because they've seen that.
Interesting.
So there's a lot in there and I'll cover that...
Yes, yes, yes. So let's chew on that a bit. You mentioned that historically returns in the middle market have been higher. Has -- is the dispersion of returns also higher?
Yes, but not to the extent that people think, so...
I guess I bring it up because I believe in Swenson's book on allocation, he talks about this idea that if dispersion is really high, it makes sense to try and hire a manager that you think can get into the top of that bucket. But if dispersion is really low, you want to focus on lower costs.
And so perhaps one can make the argument that middle market returns are higher, dispersion is also higher. It makes sense. It would be a reason why someone like CalPERS would select someone like yourself who can -- who has the expertise and historic relationships to access that top segment of the returns. Does that make any sense? Or am I pushing it too much there?
No, it does. I'll go back to this point, but I think when returns at the large mega cap end of the market have been really pretty good, and it's been relatively easy for large allocators to access and they feel confident about, okay, they're not going to shoot the lights out, but they -- again, they don't think they're going to be in a situation where they're underperforming or losing money. It's an easy decision to make. So that's effectively what we're fighting against.
But there's been a smaller, if you like, set of investors who fundamentally think, okay, is this going to continue in this way? Or is there another way of accessing it to give me the control I want that's, again, relatively cheap and worth it. So clearly, the cost of us doing something for that is a fraction of the extra return that they should get . So I think with that the case, we're -- again, we're tending to talk to sophisticated investors. And what I mean by that is, people who actually understand that there are fundamental differences between -- in private equity and what it will look like in the future.
Interesting. And so I mean, not to just put this in public markets speak, but is it as simple as over the last -- from 2010 through 2020, maybe even going back before that, there was just a lot of positive beta in the private markets as interest rates came down, more money flowed in. And so because the beta in the private markets was really good, you can make your life simple and just allocate to a big manager.
And now private market beta isn't what it once was. And so folks are searching for private market Alpha. And that's where kind of the middle market comes in, that's where you guys come in, where you have those relationships?
Yes. I think that's spot on. As I already said at the beginning, I've been in the industry for 30 years. I've been through a few cycles. I'd have to say that the last one has been the longest. It was -- I don't want to be. It was relatively easy to make or to put it more charitably, there were tailwinds. Everyone recognized it. I think a lot of people started patting themselves on the back.
So there was definitely a element of beta. We're very -- our returns have been very, very strong for a lot of our mandates. But I stand back and say, well, it should be good. We've got to be able to -- one of the things we've been able to demonstrate that Alpha from our perspective as an indirect manager through our manager selection, our portfolio construction, our co-investment activity, I'm pretty confident we can do that. But that's where I think a lot of people have got tied up and start -- they've done very, very well.
And now the tide has turned. So it's the old thing about who -- when the tide goes out, you can see who's been swimming naked in that. What I will say is one of the things I noticed certainly compared with the last -- with the financial crisis, GFC, was that before that, and it is particularly from a European context, I'm not going to speak about the U.S., but really, almost everyone, I would say, was a generalist.
And -- trying to pick numbers on, I'd say a huge amount of what they did was P101. They were definitely benefiting from multiple arbitrage through positive cycle tailwinds, incentivizing management teams in an appropriate way. But the best managers since then who'd come into it and the only ones who were back have absolutely brought something else to the table now. So to me, there's far more value add that's been brought into the PE model. So there's been beta and genuine alpha that's for me, it's far more of that now.
But as I say, it's become more challenging, particularly around -- it's the exits. I think people -- the people we back have shown genuine ability to think strategically and add value to their portfolio. It's when the exit markets have dried up somewhat, particularly the larger mega cap end of the market, that's where it's become more challenging.
Makes sense. Let's double-click on some of these relationships. Marco, I think made a really interesting comment on the acquisition call, going back to October of '23. And I'm paraphrasing here, but he said something along the lines of, we identified private market solutions as an area that made sense for us, and we wanted to get into it.
And to get into it, we realized that we basically had to acquire someone because the business is all about relationships. And so you need to acquire that tenure of relationships, trying to go and build it yourself, it would take 20 years. What's the typical duration of the relationships that you have, both on kind of the LP side and the GP side? We'll start there.
Yes. So firstly, you hit the nail on the head there. That relationship is both on the -- our investor side, our clients and on the investment side itself. So on the client side of things, even at the pooled product level, the people coming in -- investor in a pooled product are not someone that you simply make an investment decision after having met you a few weeks or months previously. They spend their time understanding what you do.
But then when you talk to the -- we look at the SMA clients, these are people who really need to develop that over a long period of time. This is a big decision that people make. So those relationships really matter and as demonstrated, as I said at the beginning of the call around when we were exiting how that works. So that takes a lot of time. But then really on the investment side of things.
So again, what we're doing is making typically primary, secondary and co-investments or a combination of those and there are definitely different flavors for each of those into -- in each of those cases, they are into or alongside a GP. And whilst you could turn around and say, right, well, I can simply go and start allocating our meet different managers, there's literally hundreds of credible and thousands of credible managers that you could go and invest in.
What we bring to the table is a deep understanding of that addressable market over an extended period of -- a very extended period of time who are the best people in that. So that when we're working alongside a GP, we know them and they know us very well, and we can triangulate that in many, many, many ways. The relationship there -- that we have with them can lead to a number of very positive benefits for our investors or investment vehicles.
Firstly, when it comes to situations where this is a really very strong manager and with this allocation, we'll get more than our fair share because of that relationship. When we look at co-investment activity that we undertake. And just to be clear, a lot of co-investment activity in this market is where, particularly at the large and mega cap end of the market is where a GP has made an investment, they want to provide some additional capital or reduce the size in that and will go to their LP base in quite a syndicated way. They will go ahead and say, look, here's what's available. You've got 2 weeks to make a decision. We'll do a management call on that.
And it's quite a very binary decision and a quick one, but relatively easy for people to make. That is not typically the type of co-investing that we're doing. What we're undertaking is working alongside a manager who really needs us and/or somebody else to be alongside them either pre or just after they made that investment. So it's really doing a lot of sort of underwriting alongside the manager. Now that's something that this really matters to a GP. They need to be confident that we're there, we can move quickly.
So that type of relationship is something that takes a lot of effort and time. Our secondary activities cover a broad range. But probably the core of what we do is, where we're acquiring an LP interest in mid-market funds. And these are typically in a situation where we are either an existing investor, primary investor with a strong relationship or someone that we know very, very well, which clearly gives us an advantage against a pure-play secondary buyer who doesn't have primary capital to deploy.
So there's definitely information symmetry there and the GP would like us to have that because we're an existing investor, hopefully, with more primary capital to deploy in the future. When we look at a lot of our activity over the past few years, we've been very successful in these concentrated secondaries or these continuation vehicles where a manager typically has an investment that would make sense holding for longer, typical secondary buyers are providing that capital.
And the situation where we're quite often an investor -- a meaningful investor with a strong relationship with the GP, we can work alongside the GP and say, here's how you should be thinking about constructing this and working there. And we clearly have a much greater advantage in that situation than a pure-play secondary player. So I'm just giving some examples of where those relationships really matter. And to Marco's point, that's something you just can't go and do quickly unless you want to simply throw a lot of money at it. So I hope that gives a...
Yes, that was great. It would be interesting, if possible, to kind of walk through an example of you guys have been primary investors in a GP for a while. There was a co-investment or a secondary opportunity that came up, how it came up, just kind of walking through a story of a specific example of what you're talking about.
One example I'll give is actually probably more on the co-investment front and how a relationship can develop. So we have, again, some very strong GP relationships that have gone back many, many years, which is hugely beneficial. But we're always on the hunt for managers that will bring something else to our portfolio, typically along sectoral plays. So just going up at a slight tangent Charles. I mentioned before about the -- how there's really been this people now think -- doing things from a sectoral position.
So for us, for a number of years, we were -- have been probably quite heavy from portfolio construction on health care, healthcare services, technology services, actually quite a lot of services. So what we're thinking now is how do we construct that if -- is there either a gap in what we're doing or is somebody else bringing some particular angle to something that we haven't had before.
We came across a manager, a new manager in COVID, sort of bizarre and this was the only time we've ever invested in a fund or investment where none of us had ever met the team physically. But it was a team that had got together. They've done a few deals. They had come out of some well-known European GPs that we knew very, very well, so we could really triangulate again, what they're doing, their story.
Part of -- again, what's quite often the case with managers who were just getting into business. They will have made a few investments themselves or when they're raising a fund, they need more firepower to make those initial investments. So -- which we view as something that's -- again, something that's relatively easy for us to do because we've done it for such a long period of time. It gives us a phenomenal angle when it comes to diligence in the manager. Nothing works better than -- than working alongside them in a live transaction.
So we worked very closely with them in making -- investing in their fund, effectively cornerstoning it to some extent by getting a lead role in an investment they are working on. So we were able to do full diligence alongside them. That's hugely valuable to them, both in terms of the capital by having us as a reference name in that and it was enabled them to attract more clients to it. And that relationship worked very well. The co-investment itself did exceptionally well and their first fund has really done exceedingly well. When one of their assets look to be appropriate for a continuation vehicle.
So for them, there was a huge amount of additional growth opportunity in this company. There were a number of investors who came in just to the fund who were, again, how do you provide the option for them to exit and those who want to stay. So again, who else will they turn to, but us to talk through how they would work through that process. And so we were able to take a lead position in that continuation fund or a secondary.
So that's a really small snapshot of how we work very closely alongside existing managers. I think another example of the relationship side of things is, an area we're looking -- actively and we made our first investment is in GP stakes. So again, it's been a very -- an expanding market. I think where a huge number of investors are now seeing the opportunity to invest in a GP to give them capital for new activities or taking a stake in the funds and GP, the GP commit and the GP itself.
It's another really good example that when we've spoken to a lot of our key relationships over time, they would have a preference for having us come in as investors, someone they have known and trusted for a long period of time rather than necessarily almost a pure-play financial investor who, again, they don't know. And so again, we made our first investment for our clients in that earlier this year. That's a strategy that we're looking at. That's something we should do on a stand-alone basis to benefit from that angle. But again, a very good example of that it's a relationship business.
Makes a lot of sense. Shifting gears here because we're already through half the hour. How should we think about the building blocks of growth over the next 2 or 3 years? I think Andre in his introduction mentioned that at the Capital Markets Day, stated that the target was to roughly double fee-earning AUM in the business over the next 3 years. So just -- yes, what are the building blocks for that?
So the first thing I'd say is -- the #1 priority for me is to continue delivering the very strong performance with clients today. That matters hugely to them. So that's a key priority. So fundraising, I think, is a key area for us. We need to continue to maintain and grow our SMA client base. A number of our mandates are either actually evergreen by nature of the vehicle itself or it's say effectively evergreen because the client effectively puts things into different tranches.
We've got such a strong track record in delivering a broad range of activities for different SMA clients. It's an area where we're looking to now because we're able to grow. But as I said before, these relationships take time. So we've got lots of irons in the fire there. Definitely looking to grow our successful secondaries strategy, the SOF strategy. That's something where we could absolutely deploy significantly more capital and effectively the same transactions. We're leaving money on the table.
That's one point I probably would say, Charles, that with our, I'd say, our existing investment capabilities with what we do, we can take on generalization, but I think significantly more capital without increasing the operational -- I think we've got very strong operational leverage in that area. So that's beneficial to us. Developing more pool products. As I said, we've only really got one at the moment, but there are other areas where, again, we have a particularly strong track record in an area that is something that should be resonating with clients.
Developing new channels and products, things like semi-liquids with partners, the CFO market and insurance channel is very interesting. And I think the other area on fundraising is really developing the LatAm opportunity. And this is if you go right back to one of the reasons that I think Patria really saw the global private market solutions opportunities for LatAm investors who really clearly benefit from Patria is maybe not a household name, but financially is very, very strong in that region.
LatAm is significantly underpenetrated in terms of its allocations to private markets, private equity than other developed markets. And so a really strong opportunity for us to be, I think, at the forefront of that in fundraising. On the investing front, again, we may -- we are -- at the moment, we've got a very, very large and strong European presence. We've got a much smaller one in the U.S. It's headed by my colleague, Eric Albertson, who's been with the business for a long period of time, has a phenomenal track record, but we recognize that we have a clear imbalance in terms of the offering to people.
And the U.S. is clearly massively important. So we're looking very carefully right from the start about how do we enhance that around bringing people into it. I mean we've already brought new team members in there. Do we have to re-hire? Do we make an acquisition of a business that sits alongside, has a similar investment philosophy with what we can offer to clients.
And I think the other areas is developing some adjacencies to what we do. I mentioned GP stakes there before, using CFO technology to provide a different offering to others. So I mean, there's many things that we can go for. We're certainly not short of opportunities. I think it's where we place our bets.
If I can add one point there really quick. Like on our Investor Day, there was a page, I think it was Page 99 that shows a little bit how -- as Merrick was saying, how the strong returns also drive asset growth, right? We gave an example of this SMA, this account that started with about $200 million in 2015. And if we fast forward today, it has like about $1 billion -- almost $1 billion with us. So how this investment returns, strong performance that Merrick mentioned also contributes to asset growth?
Makes sense. Yes. It strikes me that one of the unique features of the business, and Merrick maybe this is too simplistic, but is because the SMAs are basically evergreen structures, you're growing your assets just through investment performance, whereas a normal private equity business which -- where it's all pooled structures, you invest, it grows, you return the capital and then you have to raise a bigger vehicle.
And so if we think about the building blocks, you kind of have existing SMAs that are growing over time and that grows your assets, you then layer on new SMAs and then you have your pooled vehicles, which deploy, grow, get distributed back to LPs and then you raise new pooled vehicles, hopefully more of them in a bigger size. And that's kind of how the three chunks of the building blocks for grow. Does that make sense? Or is that...
I wish that were exactly the case, Charles. I think -- but when we look at those SMA activities, so there are certain ones which are actually evergreen vehicles. So if you think of our largest client is the Patria Private Equity Trust, 23 years, about $1.6 billion. By definition, that's a closed-end vehicle. And so the only leakage, if you like, and that is the dividends that you're paying. So that is almost full recycling, you get that. And we've got some other mandates that are actually set up as evergreen vehicles.
The second bucket and I think -- which I think you were describing. I wish just all of the SMAs will like this, but this is where they're thinking for the long term and want to do it, but need to be doing it in tranches, and it's easy for them to turn to the table. But quite a lot of SMAs, unfortunately are where people wanting something at a particular time. I don't think we've ever -- certainly, in my experience, we've never lost an SMA through performance.
But people's positions change. We had -- one of our SMAs was the pension plan of a U.K. financial institution. It's not investing in private equity anymore and it was a pure co-investment mandate. We had two tranches of that. Again, that's their choice. And so things can change. And again, that's the beauty of the SMA market for the client can change anything at any point in time.
But broadly speaking, I think that's what we're looking to get the balance right between our SMA activities and getting that, if you like, growth through the effective recycling. But I think the other area we really want to focus on to is the pool products. I think when we look at our competitors, we -- the pool products are good, and it's a specific offering for potential investors who don't have the scale to be able to do an SMA. So definitely looking to extend that into new areas.
So maybe looking at growth from a different lens, if we were talking 10 years from now, and things have been incredibly successful with the GPMS business. What would success look like in 10 years? What would the business look like? What would you be doing? Where would you be doing it, the different geographies, different products, paint a picture for what that would look like?
One thing I'd say is that everything we've discussed to date within the Global Private Market Solutions has been private equity related and actually buyout within private equity related. So it's certainly the longer-term expectation that, that develops into a much broader range of private market solutions. I think, in terms of what are the areas that we would like to grow more, certainly on the private equity side, having more venture capabilities.
That's something, again, we do a little bit of, but I think effectively acquiring the resource and track record to do that is an area we're looking at. I'll come back to the U.S. in a minute. Outside and other areas, certainly infrastructure, private credit, real estate areas, and this is effectively all as solutions providers and all ex-LatAm are all areas that Patrick is definitely looking to build.
So I think come back to what would success look like, excluding the private equity part of the business, which I managed, I think it would be disappointing if we hadn't made some real inroads into developing other private market solutions and probably in other developed markets. Coming back to the private equity business, I mentioned before that, we really having a -- I'd love to have a team that is at least equal to the size or greater in the U.S., what we're doing, particularly the U.S., there is a reason that U.S. has -- is the biggest private equity market in the world.
There's a reason that most investors have a home market bias within private equity. But the next area they looked to maybe up until recently was the U.S. So clearly, we have to have a really strong offering in that area. And fundraising, I think the success is we really see the benefit in the future of that LatAm market. And LatAm showing migrants coming into -- is a very heterogeneous market.
The dynamics in Chile, for instance, are fundamentally different to Brazil. And there are certain reasons as to how they think about and why they're looking at global private markets or private equity at the moment. But it would be a shame if we hadn't really demonstrated the strong position that Patria has in the region to be gaining market share offshore.
So I think those, I'd say, would be the -- and I think the look, I'm blessed with an incredible team of people who are very strong entrepreneurial. We've got great track records in certain areas and really think laterally about other things we can do. So I mentioned some of the things that we're thinking about at the moment. We've got no shortage of opportunities. I'd love to see some really develop from a standing start into a genuinely new and very scalable product line for us.
Makes a lot of sense. How should we think about the time line for Latin investors to be a material part of material LPs in the Global Private Market Solutions business. And what inning of that process kind of are we in today?
Honestly, it's really difficult to say. So if you look at something like the Chilean market, which is really quite sophisticated with how it views private equity globally. And we have an incredibly strong position in that market, particularly through the Moneda acquisition. So there, it's something which is actually providing probably a more bespoke tailored product for what we're doing. But again, you're going in there, we have an incredibly good set of relationships.
But our competitors have already been in the market. And so again, I go back to what I said before, yes, we've got a very strong position there, but it takes time to develop those. I think once you start getting credibility by maybe you take on one SMA client in a particular area, that answers -- so things can grow from that. But that's something I'd hate to put a time line on because it's very difficult to predict.
If we look at somewhere like Brazil, I think the dynamics are very different. There's a very high interest rates there and actually, the issues have been about actually investing in private equity anywhere given what the returns are. So I think you need to see a change in that environment before we'd see sort of material success. But -- so look, I'd love to be able to give an answer to tell. I know that the whole business is working very, very hard on that. We see tremendous opportunities, but it's really, really difficult to say.
Got it. When I speak with other investors who are early in studying Patria and getting up to speed, a question I often get is, why is Patria the right home for the Private Market Solutions business? We obviously touched on the LatAm opportunity.
In the beginning of today's call, when we were talking about the carve-out process, you talked about how Patria is a very entrepreneurial place, how are of the things you're looking at when searching for a home was a place that would allow you to invest. I guess talk to us about how it's been like working with Patria, what you've been able to do and invest in today that you weren't doing under the umbrella of Aberdeen, give us some flavor for that.
Without naming names, it was interesting. So when we're going through our process, there was a very large European financial institution that was looking at us and very keen and we're going to put a lot of things in place to address the challenges of that financial institutions opening. But it was -- what was really interesting about that is that it's a large financial institution. And when it was -- it had to go through processes to bring people on board.
So it was a very laborious process. And I'm not being critical of them at all. I completely get it. This is a new area for them. Patria, though, and again, this was really led by Marco, was able to come in and it was just a thought that was able to react to things very, very quickly, deliver on that. The lines of communication internally were very, very short. And so we're saying we need this that and the other to exist.
Again -- obviously, we were questioned about it, but decisions were made quickly and assurance is given. So -- again, you're dealing with a business that was and is highly entrepreneurial and is able to move very, very quickly. So some of the things that were important to us, we had challenges around pay structure. We had challenges and we had effectively a hiring freeze or numerous positions that we needed to fill -- and look, I honestly can't -- I don't know what the count is, but it would be 20-plus people, I think, that have been brought into the broader business since the acquisition.
Even before the acquisition effectively is, let's get these things done. I mentioned earlier around systems. We were behind where our competitors needed to be on really having a world-class system. That's something, again -- Patria, again, got it immediately, and we've been working very hard on investing in it. So there's just no shortage of examples of where that's been given.
And I think on the other piece around this entrepreneur is when we think about -- when Patria thinks about how we develop in these other areas, there's no fixed view of we've got to make an acquisition that looks like this or do. There's so many different ways of skinning the cat. So that just gives you far more optionality in how you grow.
So I think definitely, the LatAm opportunity -- because you immediately get it, okay, here's an area that overall is so underpenetrated for private markets globally and Patria has a leading position there. I think Patria has a bigger market share within LatAm than Blackstone has in the U.S. So that's very powerful. So that was definitely one element. And the other was the entrepreneurial and partnership nature of the business. That's been borne out.
Wonderful. I think we have just a couple of minutes left. I have a few more. But Andre, maybe I'll turn it over to you and see if there are any questions from the audience before I take up all the time here.
Yes. Actually, you're getting to the top of the hour. Let's try to squeeze at least one question here from the audience. I'll read it exactly as it came. It says, my understanding is that performance fees for the prior funds did not transfer with the acquisition. How should we, as other shareholders, think about performance fees or PRE for GPMS over the long term?
And Merrick, even before we start that, if I can just give a quick note. So Patria just today -- our net accrued performance fees as of the second quarter totaled about like $400 million or $2.47 per share with about like $50 million coming from our Infrastructure Fund III, which is in full realization mode. And this balance, as the question says, does not include any performance fees accrued for GPMS as the prior funds were not transferred with the acquisition.
So now I'll give you the time to talk a little bit about performance fees going forward.
So that's absolutely true. I'd say that a negative and a positive, I think, on the GPMS when it comes to performance fees. The negative is that, firstly, from the indirect business for those mandates, funds that have performance fees, they are lower level than pure-play private equity or private markets. So even if our model was sort of a 1 in 10, I think there is no mandate that we charge more than a 10% performance fee or carry on that. So it's lower.
And also, our mandates differ hugely. So we have a number of mandates. For instance, the Patria Private Equity Trust has no performance fees at all. So what I would say is that the proportion of developments overall revenue that would be ever attributable to performance fees within GPMS is lower than what you would typically see in the direct business.
The positive, though, is that I mentioned before, we have such a variety of mandates that do have performance fees that when you get into -- when you get into the period where you say nothing was done, but there will be if you like, multiple shots on goal here because you're not reliant on just simply the next fund in the series, which may or may not do well. And so I think there is an inherent longer-term diversification benefit of that, albeit the quantum of performance fees would inherently be lower. Does that explain most of the question?
Yes, I think it makes sense. Maybe I'll squeeze one last one in here. How do you think about growing the sales and distribution side of the business? And specifically in relation to that, what has changed since the business has change the ownership?
So firstly, if you like, on the LatAm side, Charles is -- Patria has a very large distribution team, so...
Yes, obviously, LatAm didn't exist before. Yes.
That's correct. Ex-LatAm, so firstly, there's investment in people. What I would say is that the -- there isn't naturally a massive intersection between -- Patria's sort of global investors in LatAm with what the private markets investors are because again, it's a different offering. But again, this is providing an opportunity for far more conversations and new markets. But there's investment in people there that's happened and is continuing.
So -- and the other element is, again, it comes back to being very pragmatic how we use external companies, placement agents in particular regions or particular strategies to supplement that as we grow. So it's really a combination of using external parties and increasing internally. The other thing I'd say, Charles, is the nature of our business is, we're very client centric. So a significant part of the senior people's time is around maintaining our existing relationships and developing new ones. So we've got a very front -- front-facing role in that because of that relationship nature, particularly on the SMA front.
Great. Andre, are there any more questions from the audience?
Actually, there are a couple, but I think we came in to the top of the hour. I'll free you guys, and I'll just reply to those through e-mail. So thank you very much, Charles. Thank you very much, Merrick, for the conversation, very valuable. And again, if you submitted your questions, we'll get back to you guys through e-mail if we haven't answered to you here.
Thanks a lot, Charles. Thanks Andre.
Thank you.
Bye-bye.
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Patria Investments — Special Call - Patria Investments Limited
Patria Investments — Special Call - Patria Investments Limited
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Gesprächsformat: Fireside‑Chat zu Patria's Global Private Market Solutions (GPMS). GPMS wird als strategischer Wachstumsmotor positioniert, fokussiert auf europäische Middle‑Market-Private‑Equity, SMAs, Secondaries und Co‑Investments.
- Zahlen: GPMS: $13,9 Mrd. AUM (davon $11,4 Mrd. fee‑earning; $1,4 Mrd. pending; $3,0 Mrd. uncalled). PPET liefert $1,6 Mrd. permanent capital.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Fokus: klare Spezialisierung auf europäische Mid‑Market‑Opportunitäten mit sektoraler Tiefe (Health, Tech Services), genutzt für Manager‑Selektion, Co‑Invests und Secondaries.
- Produktmix: SMAs (evergreen/gestaffelt), Pool‑Produkte (SOF‑Secondaries), gelisteter Trust (PPET) und erste GP‑stakes‑Aktivitäten; LatAm‑Distribution als Differenzierer.
- Integration: Carve‑out von Aberdeen (Abschluss April 2024) wird durch beschleunigte Einstellungs‑ und Systeminvestitionen bei Patria vorangetrieben.
🔍 Neue Informationen
- Raised: Seit Abschluss der Carve‑out (April 2024) über $3,5 Mrd. eingesammelt.
- Guidance: Ziel vom Investor Day (9. Dez.): fee‑earning AUM sollen sich binnen ~3 Jahren annähernd verdoppeln.
- Performance‑Fees: Zum Stichtag Q2: Patria weist ca. $400 Mio. aufgelaufene Performance‑Fees ($2,47/Aktie), GPMS‑Alt‑Funds und deren Carry wurden nicht transferiert—künftige Carry‑Beiträge im GPMS‑Mix tendenziell niedriger und diversifizierter.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- LP‑Retention: Hohe Übertragungsrate der Mandate nach der Carve‑out; nur ein Kunde wechselte nicht mit. SMAs bieten Flexibilität (Kündigungsrechte) und enge LP‑Beziehungen.
- Carry‑Profil: GPMS generiert weniger und heterogenere Performance‑Fees als Direct‑PE; Diversifikation reduziert Abhängigkeit von Einzel‑Fund‑Hits.
- Distribution & Wachstum: Ausbau der Vertriebskanäle durch Patria‑LatAm‑Netzwerk, zusätzliche Hiring‑ und externe Placement‑Agenten; US‑Team soll weiter aufgestockt oder gezielt akquiriert werden.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: GPMS ist bei Patria als skalierbarer, gebührenbasierter Wachstumshebel verankert: Kombination aus wachstumsfähigen SMAs, skalierbaren Secondaries (SOF) und LatAm‑Distribution. Kurzfristig begrenzen geringere Carry‑Anteile das Upside aus Performance‑Fees; mittelfristig sollte AUM‑Wachstum (Fundraising + organische SMA‑Wachstumsdynamik) die Management‑Fee‑Erträge deutlich treiben. Risiken: Fundraising‑tempo, US‑Aufbau und Exit‑marktzyklen.
Patria Investments — Shareholder/Analyst Call - Patria Investments Limited
1. Management Discussion
Hello, and welcome to the 2025 Patria Investments Limited Annual General Meeting of Shareholders. Please note that this meeting is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]
It is my pleasure to now turn the meeting over to Mr. Olimpio Matarazzo. The floor is yours.
Thank you very much. Yes. Hello, everyone. Welcome to Patria Investments Limited Annual General Meeting of Shareholders. I am Olímpio Matarazzo Neto, Patria Chairman of the Board of Directors, and I will proceed as Chairman of this Annual General Meeting. I am accompanied by Ana Cristina Russo, our Chief Finance Officer; and by Andre Medina, our VP of Shareholder Relations.
We are conducting today's Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, primarily on a virtual online platform. We regret not being able to see more of you in person. However, like many other companies, we are meeting online in order to provide convenience access to all of our shareholders. I want to thank you for taking the time to join us, and I hope you and your families are well and safe.
Andre Medina will lead us through the meeting. Andre, please.
Thank you, Olimpio. Computershare, our transfer agent has delivered an affidavit of mailing establishing that notice of this Annual General Meeting was duly given. Brian Heffernan of Computershare has informed me that a quorum is present and the Annual General meeting is, therefore, duly convened and may proceed to transact business, subject to confirmation of the quorum in the report by Computershare.
Those who have logged into this Annual General meeting as a shareholder using a control code may submit questions and make comments. [Operator Instructions] After I go through the following proposals to be voted on, we will respond to appropriate questions.
The first proposal to be considered and voted upon is proposal resolved, as an ordinary resolution that the company's financial statements and the auditors' report for the fiscal year ended 31st December 2024, which have been made available to the shareholders for the purpose of the AGM be approved and ratified. We encourage you to vote. If you have already voted your shares and do not wish to change your vote, no actions required at this time. If you have not yet voted or would like to change your vote, you may do so by clicking the proxy voting site link on the vote tab.
We will now pause to provide for a few moments to permit for any questions and to the extent of any to review and organize the questions. Duplicate questions will be consolidated. I will return shortly with the questions and our responses. After the question-and-answer session has concluded, we will announce the preliminary results. We are now pausing.
[Voting]
There are no questions that have been submitted according to our rules of conduct. I pass the word back to Olimpio, who will announce the preliminary results.
Thank you. The report of Computershare confirms that a quorum is and has been in attendance at this Annual General Meeting for all purposes. It also confirms that the preliminary results indicated that the first proposal has received the requisite number of votes that are approved in accordance with the annual and restated Articles of Association of Patria Investments Limited.
Thank you, Olimpio. The second and final proposal to be considered and voted upon is proposal resolved as an ordinary resolution that Daniel Rizardi Sorrentino be appointed as a member of the Board of Directors of the company, to serve on the Board until the earlier for his vacating office or removal from office as a director in accordance with the Amended and Restated Memorandum and Articles of Association of the company.
We encourage you to vote. If you have already voted your shares and do not wish to change your vote, no action is required at this time. If you have not yet voted or would like to change your vote you may do so by clicking the proxy voting site link on the vote tab. We will now pause to provide for a few moments to permit for any questions and to the extent of any to review and organize the questions. Duplicate questions will be consolidated. I will return shortly with the questions and our responses. After the question-and-answer session has concluded, we will announce the preliminary results. We're now pausing.
[Voting]
There are no questions that have been submitted according to our rules of conduct. I pass the word back to Olimpio, who announced the preliminary results.
Thank you, Andre. The report of Computershare confirms again that a quorum is and has been in attendance at this Annual General Meeting for all purposes. It also confirms that the preliminary results indicate that the second proposal has received the requisite number of votes and are approved in accordance with the amended and restated Articles of Association of Patria Investments Limited.
This concludes the business schedule for the Annual General Meeting. I would like to thank your shareholders on behalf of the Board for their support. Our meeting is now concluded. Thank you all for attending.
This concludes the meeting. You may now disconnect.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Patria Investments — Shareholder/Analyst Call - Patria Investments Limited
Patria Investments — Shareholder/Analyst Call - Patria Investments Limited
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kernbotschaft: Die 2025 Annual General Meeting (virtuell) bestätigte, dass Computershare Versand und Quorum geprüft hat. Die Aktionäre genehmigten die Jahresabschlüsse und den Prüfungsbericht für das Geschäftsjahr zum 31. Dezember 2024. Zudem wurde Daniel Rizardi Sorrentino in den Verwaltungsrat gewählt. Es lagen keine Fragen von Aktionären vor; die Sitzung wurde formal beendet.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Governance: Fokus auf formale Governance-Abläufe: Bestätigung der Finanzberichte und Vorstandsergänzung zeigen Priorität auf Board-Stabilität statt operative Neuorientierung.
- Präsenz: Vorstandsvorsitzender Olímpio Matarazzo Neto leitete die Sitzung; CFO Ana Cristina Russo und VP Shareholder Relations Andre Medina waren anwesend und standen für Fragen bereit.
- Shareholder-Access: Virtuelle Durchführung und Proxy-Voting über einen Link sollen Aktionärsbeteiligung erleichtern; Computershare konsolidierte Stimmen und lieferte vorläufige Ergebnisse.
🔎 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Einzig verbindliche Neuigkeit ist die Ernennung von Daniel Rizardi Sorrentino zum Direktor (Amtszeit bis zur früheren Vakanz oder Abberufung).
- Nicht neu: Keine operativen Updates, keine Guidance-Änderung, keine Kapitalallokations- oder Dividendenankündigung; keine inhaltliche Q&A‑Diskussion vorhanden.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Rein routinemäßiges AGM mit Governance-Entscheidungen, aber ohne marktbewegende operative oder finanzielle Neuheiten. Anleger sollten das Hintergrundprofil des neuen Direktors prüfen und auf offizielle Einreichungen mit endgültigen Abstimmungsergebnissen achten; kurzfristig keine Änderung der Unternehmensstory erkennbar.
Patria Investments — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Patria Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker for today, Rob Lee, Head of Shareholder Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Patria's second quarter 2025 earnings call. Speaking today on the call are our Chief Executive Officer, Alex Saigh; and our Chief Financial Officer, Anna Rus; and our Chief Economist, Luis Fernando Lopes, for the Q&A session. This morning, we issued a press release and earnings presentation detailing our results for the quarter, which you can find posted on the Investor Relations section of our website or on Form 6-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available.
Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain, do not guarantee future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Patria assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on current management expectations and involve risks, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our latest Form 20-F annual report. Also note that no statements on this call constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Patria fund.
As a foreign private issuer, Patria reports financial results using International Financial Reporting Standards, or IFRS, as opposed to U.S. GAAP. Additionally, we would like to remind everyone that we will refer to certain non-IFRS measures, which we believe are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business, but which should not be considered in isolation from, or as a substitute for, measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. Reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable IFRS measures are included in our earnings presentation.
Now I will turn the call over to Alex.
Thank you, Rob, and good morning, everyone. In the second quarter, we made continued progress leveraging and expanding the diversified platform we have built the past several years as fundraising was a solid $1.3 billion in the quarter led by our credit, infrastructure, real estate and GPMS global private market solutions businesses. And total fundraising over the first half of the year reached approximately $4.5 billion, 75% of our original $6 billion target for 2025. Reflecting our strong fundraising momentum and confidence in our outlook, we now expect full year fundraising for 2025 to be 5% to 10% higher than our initial target or $6.3 billion to $6.6 billion versus the original $6 billion guidance.
We also reported second quarter '25 fee-related earnings of $46.1 million, representing 8% sequential and 17% year-over-year growth, while fee-earning AUM grew 6% sequentially and 20% year-over-year, and total AUM reached $48.7 billion. Importantly, we generated over $600 million of organic net inflows into fee-earning AUM in the second quarter of '25, $1.3 billion over the first half of this year and $2.4 billion over the last 12 months.
Year-to-date, net inflows reflect an annualized organic growth rate of about 8% based on fee-earning AUM since the start of the year. This is an important KPI to monitor over time as it highlights our ability to drive organic revenue and earnings growth independent of M&A and investment returns. Overall, our diversification and the expansion of our investments and product capabilities is paying off in the form of robust fundraising and profitable net organic growth, enhancing our confidence in the 3-year targets we introduced at our Investor Day last December.
Now let me quickly summarize our second quarter results before we move on to some of the other highlights for the quarter. First, fee-related earnings per share of $0.29 in the second quarter of '25 rose 7% sequentially and 11% year-over-year, driven by higher management fees due to higher fee-earning AUM as well as a higher fee-related earnings margin as we continue to focus on expense management even as we invest in our business. Overall, we remain comfortable with our 2025 fee-related earnings target of $200 million to $225 million or $1.25 to $1.40 per share, reflecting at the midpoint of the range, approximately 20% year-over-year growth.
We generated $39 million of distributable earnings in the second quarter of '25 or $0.24 per share, up 4% sequentially and 9% year-over-year, driven by strong fee-related earnings growth. We did not generate performance-related earnings in this quarter. The net accrued performance fee balance of $394 million or $2.47 per share rose approximately 7% from the first quarter of this year, mainly due to the depreciation of the dollar. For perspective and notwithstanding changes in the value of the public holdings in our carry funds, underlying business trends at our private equity portfolio companies generally remain positive.
In local currency, EBITDA at our nonpublic private equity portfolio companies rose approximately 25% on average over the past year as we focus on resilient sectors of the economy such as agribusiness, food and beverage and healthcare. Furthermore, Infrastructure Fund III with $47 million of net accrued performance fees is in full realization mode, and we continue to expect it will be the main source of realized performance-related earnings over the balance of 2025 and through 2026. On that note, we remain confident that we can achieve our performance-related earnings target of $120 million to $140 million for the fourth quarter of '24 through 2027. Against this target, we realized $41 million of performance-related earnings in the fourth quarter of '24 and expect to realize an additional $15 million to $20 million of performance-related earnings over the second half of this year.
Moving on, fee-earning AUM of $37.2 billion rose a robust 20% year-over-year and 6% sequentially. There are several important things to keep in mind regarding our fee-earning AUM results. Net organic inflows in the second quarter of '25 were over $600 million, $1.3 billion year-to-date and $2.4 billion over the past year. This was our fourth straight quarter of positive net organic fee-earning AUM growth and our annualized organic growth rate over the first half of 2025 was over 8% based on fee-earning AUM since the start of the year.
Additionally, it is very important to mention that our organic growth was helped by a 34% year-over-year reduction on redemptions. We believe this highlights how our expanded platform is primed to grow organically, supported by the capabilities we have acquired through our M&A activity in addition to those we have developed internally. As a result, we have built a better and more resilient business. Indeed, one of the key features of our business is that it's built to grow no matter the macroeconomic environment. For example, in a high interest rate environment where concerns over inflation may be high, such as the current one, strategies such as credit and infrastructure investments with high yields and/or built-in inflation protections are in demand relative to equity-oriented strategies. When interest rates decline and those concerns recede, we would expect demand for more equity-oriented strategies such as equity REITs or private equity to improve.
With regard to acquisitions, our ability to leverage our platform and scale to drive growth through incremental M&A is exemplified by the Brazilian REIT acquisitions we announced in the second quarter of 2025 and closed in July. At a time when the interest rate environment in Brazil makes it difficult to raise capital in listed REITs, we were able to use our position as market leaders to go shopping on the floor of the exchange and acquire a total of 7 listed REITs, which are expected to add approximately $600 million of high-margin permanent capital fee-earning AUM. This is an example of how M&A can be an attractive alternative to fundraising as the prices paid for acquisitions are often similar to, or even lower than what it would cost to fundraise the same amount of capital.
Fee-earning AUM in the quarter also benefited from continued strong investment returns and a positive FX impact. Keep in mind that as we highlighted at Investor Day, the fee-related earnings impact from soft currency FX volatility is modest, given that most of our expenses base is denominated in local currencies, providing a substantial natural hedge. As we reviewed at our Investor Day back on December 9, based on our current asset class mix, a 10% variance in soft currencies against the dollar impacts fee-related earnings by only 2%.
Moving on to fundraising. As I noted at the start of my remarks, we are pleased to report that we raised $1.3 billion in the second quarter, approximately $4.5 billion over the first half of the year and are raising our initial $6 billion target for 2025 by 5% to 10% to $6.3 billion to $6.6 billion. The quarter's strong results coming on the heels of our record fundraising in the first quarter of this year highlights the diversified product offering and distribution capabilities of the platform we have been building. Fundraising continues to benefit from new strategies and products we have introduced over the past several years, including various institutional products targeted to local institutional investors in local currencies.
As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, approximately 20% of our fee-earning AUM were in permanent capital vehicles, the growth of which remains a key long-term objective. Drilling down into some of the fundraising highlights for the quarter, credit was once again a standout, led by solid flows into our flagship LatAm U.S. dollar high-yield strategy. Infrastructure benefited from another closing on our flagship development fund, Infrastructure Fund V and co-investments with demand driven by Asian and local institutional investors. It is worth noting that over the first half of 2025, fundraising in infrastructure is approximately 3x greater compared to all of 2024, led by Infrastructure Fund V, which has reached $2.5 billion of commitments between the drawdown fund and fee-paying co-investment vehicles.
Fundraising in credit has already reached 85% of the level achieved in 2024, which was itself a strong year. We believe these extraordinary results highlight how we are leveraging our strong investment performance in these verticals and the investments we have made in our platforms. In addition, Private Equity Fund VII reached $1.4 billion, inclusive of related fee-paying co-investment vehicles. It is important to keep in mind that as we expand our business, a large portion of the capital we raise will only flow into fee-earning AUM as capital is deployed. Our current pending fee-earning AUM totals about $3.3 billion, down modestly from the $3.5 billion in the first quarter of this year due to deployment partially offset by fundraising.
While the level of pending fee-earning AUM can vary over the short term, over time, we would expect it to grow as our fundraising grows and we raise more capital in drawdown funds, SMAs and similar fund structures. Our efforts to diversify our platform and increase the resiliency of our business could not be timelier considering the highlighted global macro uncertainty and increased volatility that has gripped economies and markets around the world since the proposed imposition of widespread tariffs by the United States on its trading partners and the uncertainty over future trade and economic policies.
Against this backdrop, it is important for investors to understand and appreciate how the region, in general, and Patria specifically, are positioned in these uncertain times. Consider President Trump's renewed threats to impose high tariffs on multiple trading partners, including high tariffs on imports from Brazil, which, if implemented, could have some negative impact on the Brazilian economy. However, the continued uncertainty caused by this on-again, off-again threats, in fact, highlights why LatAm and Europe are becoming more attractive destinations for global capital as investors rethink their global asset allocations. While much uncertainty remains, we believe these regions and Patria are positioned to weather, and indeed possibly thrive, in these challenging conditions.
Consider that, at the strategy or investment level, our private equity investments are mostly oriented towards domestic consumption markets, not export markets. Infrastructure, by its nature, is local and our GPMS solutions business is focused on European and, to a lesser extent, United States, middle market, private equity secondaries, primaries and co-investments. Direct exposure to export-focused businesses and/or investments in the United States is minimal. Investments in Brazil account for approximately 30% of our invested assets.
As we noted earlier, demand for our credit and infrastructure products increases in periods of high interest rates and higher inflation concerns. Also, demand for our GPMS products increases as global institutional investors look for liquidity and flexible portfolio solutions for their middle market private equity exposure. Our current exposure to Mexico is minimal at below 3% of AUM. Long term, however, we believe Mexico remains an attractive market for expansion.
As the prospects for a trade war remain high, we believe LatAm, as a region, is a beneficiary given the region's low level of geopolitical risk and export markets that focus on in-demand agricultural products in addition to both hard and soft commodities. With a population of over 650 million people and a combined GDP of over $6.5 trillion, the region also has a large and growing internal markets that provide an attractive export destination for trading partners. The trade war is also driving global investors to take a deeper look at Europe as an alternative destination for investment capital as investors become increasingly concerned that the United States may become a less reliable partner.
From Patria's perspective, as investors in Latin America for over 37 years with significant boots-on-the-ground resources, we have extensive experience in dealing with and investing through periods of high interest rates, FX volatility and economic uncertainty. As the go-to alternative manager in LatAm, the recent tariff-induced economic uncertainty and other trade actions by the United States have led to increased interest from Asian, Middle Eastern and increasingly European investors in our infrastructure and other investment strategies, including our European private equity solutions business as investors seek alternative destinations outside the United States to deploy capital and earn returns. This is exemplified by the significant portion of this year's fundraising, which has been sourced from Asian investors.
Our business is also built to serve local investors at the local level. We continue to see early signs of increased allocations to alternatives from local investors and institutions that are both under-allocated to alternative strategies and often required to invest locally and understandably have a home country bias in times of economic stress and uncertainty. Local investors in LatAm and Europe accounted for approximately 55% of our fundraising over the first half of 2025 and 68% in 2024. Finally, economically, our fee-earning AUM and management fees are very sticky and highly predictable as approximately 20% of our fee-earning AUM are in permanent capital vehicles and approximately 90% in vehicles with no, or limited, redemption features.
At the same time, our fee-related earnings has little sensitivity to soft currency FX volatility, as we mentioned earlier. Pulling this all together, our financial results and ongoing fundraising momentum provide additional evidence that our strategy to diversify and grow our business both organically and inorganically while also increasing our resilience is paying off. We believe we are off to a strong start to deliver on our 2025 goals, including the new fundraising target of $6.3 billion to $6.6 billion, and fee-related earnings of $200 million to $225 million or $1.25 to $1.40 per share. Additionally, we expect to achieve the 2027 targets we unveiled at our Investor Day, such as total fee-earning AUM of $70 billion and fee-related earnings of $260 million to $290 million or $1.60 to $1.80 per share.
Now let me turn the call over to Ana to review our financial results in more detail. Thank you.
Thank you, Alex, and good morning, everyone. As Alex highlighted, we are very pleased with the strong momentum we achieved as we raised $1.3 billion in the second quarter and about $4.5 billion over the first half of the year, clear proof that the strategic investments we've made in our investment platforms, products and distribution capabilities are paying off. The strong results in the quarter increases our confidence that we are on track to achieve our 2025 objectives and off a solid start of our 3-year plan.
Let's review our second quarter results. As Alex highlighted in his remarks, our robust fundraising year-to-date demonstrated that we are well on track to achieve and indeed surpass our initial $6 billion target for the year against a backdrop of increased global uncertainty and volatility. Our FEAUM rose 20% year-over-year and 6% sequentially to approximately $37 billion. While acquisitions contributed to the year-over-year increase, the strong growth reflects a combination of solid net organic inflows as well as the positive contribution from strong investment performance and FX movements due to the depreciating U.S. dollar.
It's particularly noteworthy that in the quarter, Patria generated over $600 million of net inflows into FEAUM, bringing our year-to-date to $1.3 billion and approximately 8% annualized organic growth. This is the fourth straight quarter of the net organic inflows, highlighting our expanding fundraising capabilities, coupled with the stickiness and resilience of our asset base. While the U.S. dollar depreciation in the quarter contributed to our strong sequential growth in AUM and fee-earning AUM, importantly, however, and as we highlighted in prior calls, FX fluctuations have limited impact on our FRE since our expense base provides a substantial hedge against currency movements that may impact our fee-earning AUM and consequently, our fee revenues.
As we reviewed at our Investor Day back on December 9, based on our current asset class mix, a 10% variance in soft currencies against the dollar impacts FRE by only about 2%. Pending fee-earning AUM totaled about $3.3 billion, down somewhat from the first quarter due to the active deployment partially offset by fundraising. This pending fee-earning AUM, combined with our fundraising goals, the 20% of fee-earning AUM are in permanent capital vehicles and the almost 35% of fee-earning AUM in the drawdown funds with an average life of 6.5 years, all point to our ongoing ability to generate net organic growth over time.
Total fee revenue in the second quarter reached $81.1 million, up 14% over the prior year and about 5% sequentially. The sequential increase was driven by strong growth in fee-earning AUM and some incremental incentive fees from one of our real estate funds in Brazil and from the strong active public equity performance. It is worth mentioning that due to the timing of net asset flows into fee-earning AUM, management fee revenues in the second quarter did not reflect the full impact of the quarter's asset growth. Our management fee rate averaged 95 basis points over the last trailing 4 quarters. As we reviewed at our Investor Day, we are steadily diversifying our business and introducing new investment strategies and product structures, which are key drivers of our growth. Consequently, our management fee rate will continue to evolve, and we expect our fee rate to average between 92 and 94 basis points over the coming quarters, but with the potential to vary, depending on the mix.
Moving on, operating expenses, which include personnel and G&A expenses, totaled approximately $35 million in the quarter, practically flat versus Q1 '25 and up 10.7% year-over-year. The year-over-year increase mainly reflects the impact of acquisitions. The very slight sequential increase reflects our continued focus on expense controls and capturing operating efficiencies, even as we continue to invest in the business. Looking ahead, we believe second quarter personnel and G&A expenses combined a good baseline run rate.
Putting it all together, Patria delivered fee-related earnings of $46.1 million in the quarter, up 17% versus the prior year and 8% sequentially, with an FRE margin that rose 170 basis points sequentially to 56.8% in the quarter. We continue to expect the full year margin to fall within the range of 58% to 60% guidance as we grow fee revenues and capture incremental expense synergies from our acquisitions. We want to remind everyone that the fourth quarter is often our strongest in terms of FRE margin, driven by the recognition in the quarter of most of our high-margin incentive fees from our credit and public equities platforms. Regarding FRE, with half of the year completed and as our visibility into remainder of 2025 improves, we remain very confident in our ability to hit our 2025 target FRE range of $200 million to $225 million and 2027 FRE target of $260 million to $290 million with an FRE margin target of 58% to 60%.
Next our net financial and other income and expense in the second quarter of '25 totaled a negative $4 million, reflecting mainly interest expenses on our credit facilities partially offset by income generated in our new energy trading platform, Tria, which contributed about $0.7 million in the quarter. As of the second quarter, net debt totaled approximately $130 million and our net debt to FRE ratio of 0.6x was well below the 1x at the end of the quarter, in line with our long-term guidance.
As we manage our cash flow and capital structure over the balance of the year, we expect our debt level to remain relatively unchanged even as we fund M&A-related deferred cash payments of approximately $40 million throughout year-end, including the latest REIT acquisition in Brazil. Following this payment, our current deferred M&A-related cash payments through 2027 would be approximately $100 million, consistent with our guidance at our December Investor Day. Consequently, given our expectations regarding our net debt over the balance of the year and a somewhat higher contribution from Tria, our net financial and other expenses line should be at about 30% lower over the coming quarters compared to the second quarter.
Our effective tax rate in the quarter was 8%, an increase of 1 percentage point versus the prior quarter, mainly reflecting our mix of jurisdictions. We expect our tax rate over the coming years to hover around 10% annually, but will vary quarter-to-quarter depending on the evolving mix of our business, although we expect 2025 to be below 10%. Of note, as exemplified in the fourth quarter of '24, quarters with large amounts of PRE tend to have lower tax rates as PREs largely generate in low or no tax jurisdictions.
In the second quarter '25, we generated $38.8 million of distributable earnings, up 15% year-over-year and over 5% sequentially, mainly reflecting higher FRE, partially offset by higher net financial interest and expense and higher tax. Second quarter DE per share of $0.24 was up 9% versus prior year and 4% sequentially, mainly on higher FRE, partially offset by higher share count versus both second quarter '24 and first quarter '25. Regarding the share count, we finished the quarter at 159.5 million shares and continue to expect the share count to average between 158 million and 160 million from 2025 through 2027, inclusive of share repurchase, which will be focused on offsetting stock-based compensation.
On that note, the Board of Directors voted to renew and increase our share repurchase program. And over the next 12 months, we have the authorization to repurchase up to 3 million shares. We did not repurchase shares in the quarter, but it remains our intention to repurchase shares over the balance of 2025 and keep our share count within the target range. Finally, as we announced during the past day, the Board approved for 2025 a quarterly dividend per share of $0.15. Overall, we are very pleased with our second quarter results and the momentum we have built as we continue to diversify and improve the resilience of our business. We believe we are on track to meet our FRE targets for 2025, and we are excited regarding the growth opportunity that lies ahead.
Thank you, everyone, for dialing in, and we are now ready to answer your questions.
[Operator Instructions] And the first question today will be coming from the line of Rodrigo Ferreira of Bank of America.
2. Question Answer
You've mentioned how Mexico is an area of interest for future expansion. What type of partner acquisition would you look for there? And is that the next target as we think about your $14 billion target of inorganic inflows from the Investor Day?
Just as a note, I think before we begin here the Q&A session, I would like to acknowledge here the tragic and senseless events that occurred earlier this week at Blackstone and other firms in their building in New York that led actually to the death of a friend or one of their employees and others in their building. We have many friends at Blackstone given our decade-long relationship with them, and we are heartbroken here over the tragedy they had to endure. And our best wishes go out to everyone there and indeed everyone and their respective families that suffered at the hands of this very senseless violence.
Going back to Mexico here, Rodrigo, I think Mexico is definitely, as we've mentioned here in a long-term perspective, an attractive market is the second largest economy in Latin America, as you know. And the way I think that we see Mexico as of now is to try to find local partners in some of the asset classes that we think are better to expand at the current moment of the country. So real estate being one of them and credit and infrastructure, I think, being the other ones.
On the real estate front, we did actually buy a very small real estate fund in Mexico, the [ FIBRA ], which is now similar to the REITs in the U.S., similar to the FIIs, the PEs here in Brazil. It was a very small acquisition, so we didn't announce it. It was a total assets of this Mexican real estate REIT of $26 million. We did buy the management company together with a local partner called Lexington that is a real estate manager in Mexico. And the management company, the JV between us and them, will manage 50-50, will then manage this $26 million FIBRA.
In addition to buying this small management company that manages just this FIBRA, this $26 million FIBRA, we did buy a portion of the shares of the FIBRA. So as an asset, it will be an investment in our balance sheet. The strategy here is to continue to grow raising money mainly for logistics real estate in Mexico. I don't know if you did see this latest news or not, but 2 weeks ago, the largest Mexican FIBRA Fibra UNO did announce a spin-off together with new money of its industrial properties, its logistics properties and raised in this spin-off plus IPO over $400 million of fresh capital. So what did Fibra UNO did do? And I believe that Fibra UNO is the largest real estate investment trust in Latin America with around $5 billion of assets -- actually $15 billion of assets of $10 billion of debt, so $5 billion of net worth. So probably is the largest real estate investment trust in LatAm listed in the Mexican Stock Exchange and did the spin-off of their industrial assets.
So there is a demand for industrial assets in Mexico, as you can see from this deal that happened 2 weeks ago. And our strategy is to use this small FIBRA that we did acquire in order to expand into the Mexican also industrial assets, logistic assets. It's slow steps that we're going to take here. So we don't have -- we don't want to have to take a very large step into Mexico as of now. But this came about as a very unique opportunity. The Mexican authorities are not actually giving out authorization for new FIBRA. So that's why we decided to buy one. And we decided to buy a small one, so we can actually learn and grow from there into other assets. And we're excited about the deal.
Of course, it's very small. It doesn't move the needle at all given the size of the FIBRA, but very excited as the first step. With that, I think we have -- I think we also, as I mentioned earlier in the answer here, a huge opportunity to grow in the credit space in Mexico. We do get exposure to the credit space in Mexico through our pan-regional credit funds, our flagship fund, which is the high-yield LatAm pan-regional dollar-denominated fund that does carry securities issued by Mexican economies in U.S. dollars. In total, we have a 3% exposure of our total assets into Mexico, a very small exposure, but most of that is in credit and some in equities, public equities.
As you know, the pension system in Mexico is growing very healthily. It's basically doubling in the next 5 years in assets under management. NAV growth is one reason, but the main reason is the higher contributions that the government approved from the employers to the pension funds. It is the largest pool of pension funds in Latin America. Mexico is the second largest economy in Latin America, but the pension funds do manage the largest pool of capital, $350 billion approximately versus $250 billion here in Brazil versus $150 billion to $180 billion in Chile. And this largest pool, $350 billion, will double in 5 years. So we have to tap that market with local products. FIBRA is a very local product. The real estate investment trust in Mexico that we just acquired, and we intend to actually launch other local products into the Mexican economy targeted initially to the institutional investors.
Finally, the main investors of this small FIBRA are the Mexican pension funds and one of them being the largest Mexican pension fund that is now our clients together with a couple of other pension funds that became our clients. So we have local clients now in Mexico investing in a local product, which is this FIBRA managed by us. So this is what we intend to do in Mexico. Will it be a major portion of the $14 billion that you mentioned in the later part of your question? I don't think so, Rodrigo. I think it's still early to say that over the next 2 years up to the end of '27, I think Mexico is going to be still very modest, very small portion of our total AUM or fee-earning AUM. I hope I answered your question.
That was great. For my follow-up, can you touch on how the deployment pipeline looks like at the moment, particularly in infrastructure? How should we think about the pace of deployment there given the $3.3 billion of uncalled capital?
Yes, we are excited with all the fundraising for this first half of the year, as you probably heard during the call, and we have this, for us, sizable pool of capital that we can actually invest the $3.3 billion that you mentioned. And infrastructure, I think, is one of the main asset classes. It's $1.3 billion out of the $3.3 billion, so a 1/3 of that pending fee-earning AUM. We have a lot of things in the pipeline in infrastructure, mainly in Brazil and Colombia. The usual suspects that we feel very comfortable with investing, for example, toll roads, a lot of auctions are going on in Brazil, as you know, over the next months, and we pretend to select the -- what we consider the best ones to participate.
We have not only the fund investing, Infrastructure Fund V, but we have a pool of fee-paying co-investors that want to invest alongside. So making us able to actually sign bigger checks for bigger concessions. We also see the energy market in Colombia very, very attractive. As you know, we are finalizing the construction of the largest solar panel farm in Colombia, serving the largest utility company there. And we plan to expand that relationship. We also look into water sanitation. We also look to other sectors of the infrastructure industry, but mainly these 3 are our priorities as we speak.
Also, what we also have is in GPMS, the other 1.4 billion out of the 3.4 billion, so another basically 40% of the money there. Money that we have raised, one of them, our flagship secondaries opportunity Fund V, investing in secondaries buying positions of other LPs and GPs, mid-market, mainly European private equity funds. So very excited with that product as LPs seek for liquidity of their portfolio. So it's a very hot product right now, and we are very well positioned with our GPMS and [indiscernible] another SMEs that we did raise within our GPMS industry segment.
Our next question will be coming from the line of Tito Labarta of Goldman Sachs.
This is Tito from Goldman. Alex, my question, I guess, on the higher fundraising that you're expecting for the year. One, just to clarify, that is separate from the REIT that you announced that you acquired of around $600 million, right? So it would be -- that should be considered inorganic, right? So the 5% to 10% increase in fundraising is organic, just to clarify that. And if so, what is driving that? Because as you mentioned, right, interest rates are still high in Brazil, but I mean, you seem to be getting some more interest here. So where do you see that interest is coming from that's leading to the better fundraising?
Yes, the uplift in the guidance from $6 billion to $6.3 billion to $6.6 billion or 5% to 10% higher is in addition to the $600 million -- approximately $600 million of AUM REITs that we bought in Brazil. And of course, also in addition to the small Mexican $26 million there that I just mentioned while answering Rodrigo's question from BofA. So we see -- so it is in addition. In addition to the $6.3 billion, $6.6 billion, we did this acquisition of $600 million of Brazilian REITs plus the $26 million of a small Mexican REIT.
We see a lot of interest coming from Asian investors, Middle East and Europeans mainly and LatAm, local-to-local into our infrastructure credit and GPMS products. So infrastructure, again, inflation protected with alpha. So we see a lot of the local pension funds in the region in Latin America willing to get exposed to this product because of the nature of the inflation-protected revenues that we have for infrastructure and the long-term contracts and concession contracts that we -- that is part of the business, that is a characteristic of this business. On the credit side of the interest rates and alpha, we have been delivering great returns. Probably going to see -- as we file our presentation right now, which we did actually file last night, I'm sorry. You can see the returns on the credit -- all of our credit strategies performing very well as our infrastructure strategies as well. So continue to deliver alpha throughout our credit strategies, which then, of course, attracts investors to be able to tap into the high interest rate environment of most of the Latin American countries, high real interest rates in most of these Latin American countries. So continued interest from investors.
We also see a slight shift, as I tried to describe and mentioned during my part of the earnings call of investors looking into LatAm as a place to allocate capital versus the U.S. I don't see people actually redeeming money from the U.S., but I think the additional allocation, I think people are rethinking about the additional allocation into the U.S. and a small shift of this additional location into LatAm is already for us here, a huge amount of money. So as we see a small shift coming from Asian investors, a small shift coming from Middle Eastern investors, LatAm investors willing to invest more locally, given the volatility, the whole biased nature that people actually feel in uncertain times.
And European investors now with a trade agreement between the European block, European Union and the [ South Co ] market, all of this together adds the uncertainty, the tariffs in the U.S., the trade agreements be bilateral being made between Latin America and Europe, for example, the allocation of the additional amount of capital, not 100% in the U.S. as we were seeing during the year 2024, a bit of that being shifted to other regions, LatAm being one of them. All of this together, and of course, we are the go-to alternative asset manager in the region is benefiting us in the fundraising.
And this is the fourth quarter, sequential quarter that we see net new money in a very positive and growing. So that's why we feel comfortable that we can actually uplift the guidance here. And also within the Brazilian setup that you mentioned, high interest rates, yes. But our credit products here are also doing well and have been able to raise capital in addition, again, investors trying to tap this high real interest rate environment, environment in Brazil as well.
No, that's very helpful, very thorough. Maybe just a follow-up. Given that you are maintaining your guidance for FRE, I mean, should we assume to already see a step change from all this fundraising in 3Q? I know 4Q tends to be seasonally strong where you get the incentive fees. But just to get to that guidance, FRE will need to go up in the second half of the year? But should we already begin to see that in 3Q or should we expect most of that in 4Q?
Yes. I think most of that more tail ended because we now have to -- which is a good part of it and the fun part of it for all of my portfolio managers here, we have to then invest this money. And as we invest the money, this money becomes then invested capital that we can charge fees, revenues, et cetera but there's a small-time lag. So as we already in late July, early August here, we will see more in the fourth quarter. But what is the message here? Now we will deliver the guidance of $225 million of FRE. We feel very comfortable with that given all the fundraising that transforms into revenues. And we get into -- we end '25 when we get into 2026 in a very strong position because these investments are not made this year, it's going to make late this year, so turning into revenues early 2026. So puts us in a very good position to deliver '26 and then heads us to '27. That's why we feel comfortable as it's a very long-term sticky management fee business that we manage.
We can see 2027 delivering the $260 million to $290 million FRE guidance. So all of the fundraising in the beginning of the 3-year plan because we could have this fundraising later in the 3-year plan, we would still read the numbers, but now all of this good fundraising in the beginning of the 3-year plan makes us even more comfortable that we will deliver. If we do a simple math here, Tito, our fee-related earnings in the second quarter was approximately $44 million. Again, just remembering there's no incentive fees in the second quarter. If you multiply that by 4, we're already at $176 million. If we add $10 million to $12 million of incentive fees that happens in the fourth quarter, we are at $186 million, $188 million. So we are touch off the $200 million, which is the entry level of the range of $200 million to $225 million.
$12 million of additional fee-related earnings in the next 2 quarters is a small amount. If you do the math, I have to invest more or less $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion, and we have $3.3 billion already pending fee earnings AUM. So I think we're in a very good position. Of course, we have to do great investments because our name of the game here is to continue delivering great returns as we are with great returns, we managed to then raise more money. But of course, we're going to do great investments with the high-quality portfolio managers that we have here at Patria. I'm sure that we're going to do that but we are in a good position. We are in a good position if I do half of my fee-paying AUM that I have in inventory as of today, things work in the way that I just described. And here we are delivering the $200 million to $225 million FRE and putting us in a strong position to start '26. So good position to be in.
Of course, as you know, we have a very sophisticated CRM structure to manage our fundraising. We can see what we call internally here the funnel all the way from a lead to a subscription document signed. And when we see that funnel, we also -- makes us comfortable that we can hit the 5% to 10% higher guidance of the $6 billion that we announced as a fundraising guidance for '25. So we're in a great position. I'm happy for the team and congratulations from my team here from Patria’s commercial team that did a great job this first half of the year.
And the next question will be coming from the line of Ricardo Buchpiguel of BTG.
You mentioned the 7 REITs acquisition in the presentation is expected to add $600 million in fee earning AUM. Could you walk us through the timeline for when they will start being consolidated in your results? Will any shareholder approval from the REITs be required? And if so, are there any meaningful costs that will be associated with these approvals?
Ricardo, we did 2 acquisitions here or a group of REITs that we acquired from Genial, as you know, it's the Brazilian local bank and a group of REITs that we bought from a local alternative asset manager, real estate alternative asset management called Vectis. On the Vectis front, we did the acquisition of one of their holding companies, which managed these funds. So the transaction is basically already closed. So we did sign and already close. So you will see these numbers already in the third quarter, adding to our fee earnings AUM as we did announce in July.
In the case of Genial, we have to go through the assemblies. We have to call shareholders' vote. But for 90% of the funds, we already got the approval. too much detail here, but you probably know that we need 25% of the quota holders of each fund to actually vote to transfer the management of these REITs from Genial to us. And for 90% of the AUM, we already got the votes in for the shareholders' meetings. They're still going on because it's a 45 days that we have in order to reach out for these votes, but we already have more than 25% count as of today. So we are in a good position. Just 10% of the Genial funds, which is a $30 million fund of the whole $600 million that we did acquire, 5%. We're still counting to get to the 25%. But I think we'll probably get there, but we still have a couple of weeks to go, which is the 45-day period within the shareholders' meeting that we did call for.
And in the worst of the worst case, we can extend that but it's only 5% of the AUM. So you're probably going to see during our third quarter of 2025. Revenues from that is on an annualized basis of $3 million. So going forward, it should add $1.5 million to our revenue which should translate into a $1 million of fee-related earnings, not annualized for the year, $2 million annualized, but for the year, $1 million as we did do this transaction in July. So it's not a -- it doesn't move the needle, but it's $1 million that we will add to our FRE within the year of 2025. The costs associated with these are irrelevant. It's basically calling on a shareholders' meeting and a very, very insignificant costs that is not -- it doesn't move the needle at all, I think of our transaction costs. And I think this is it.
Very clear. And just a follow-up here still on the real estate segment. We saw a pickup in fundraising during the quarter. If you could comment on what type of investors are driving the demand, which products are they mainly focusing in would be helpful. And also, if you could comment if we should see this level of fundraising from Q2 in the following quarters also would be helpful.
Yes. I think our funds have been performing extremely well, and I congratulate here the portfolio managers and my partners that run the business, mainly the industrial logistics, which is the HGLG and also the urban retail fund, which is the HGRU, the ticker of these 2 funds. And of course, the credit fund as well doing very well given the times of high interest rates that we are living in Brazil right now. So we are -- we announced a follow-on offering for the logistics fund, the HGLG as we speak, a BRL 2 billion follow-on. We already have BRL 1 billion taken, which we are exchanging assets for shares of the fund. So investors that own assets, own real estate assets are in this follow-on offering are exchanging these assets and receiving in exchange shares of the fund. That accounts for more or less half of the offering and the other half of the offering would be new money. So it's a significant offering that we are running right now.
And the other fund that looks into a good position to be able to do a follow-on is our street retail fund, the HGRU. Why do we see that? Because the share price is trading at a very close level to the NAV of the fund and puts us in a good position to do a follow-on. So street retail, logistics, of course, more than an office fund and credit also doing very well. So we're very -- again, high interest rates environment, but been able to manage the funds, our logistics funds very well, manage them very well. Our logistics fund is the largest in the segment. So that attracts a lot of investors because of its size, because of its liquidity. Same with street retail, the largest of the segment.
The Brazilian economy is doing reasonably well. I think it's -- those particular things of Brazil and one of them is very high interest rates, very high real interest rates, but the economy continues to perform reasonably well. GDP at around 3% growth for 2025, which is impressive. You would imagine that such a high interest rates, it would cause a slowdown of the economy, but the economy will probably finish 2025 posting a 3% growth. And that reflects in all our businesses. And as you know, Brazilians find a way to protect themselves against inflation, indexing, hedging, et cetera, to the good and to the bad to what I'm saying.
And we see in our private equity portfolio, EBITDA, as I mentioned during my earnings call, organically up 20% year-over-year, which is the whole portfolio, and we have everything in the portfolio from Fund IV all the way to Fund VII exposure to several sectors is quite -- our private equity portfolio is a quasi ETF of the Brazilian economy because it's exposed to so many different sectors and that 20% EBITDA growth organic, it's over 30-something-percent if I consider the acquisitions. So again, the -- as the Brazilian particularities of the Brazilian economy, we continue to perform given this environment. And we continue to fundraise in real estate, in infrastructure, for infrastructure, for real estate and for credit.
And the next question will come from the line of William Barranjard of Itau BBA.
I have a couple of questions here. Starting with the first one regarding fundraising. I just wanted to pick your brains on how do you think the recent news flow regarding the U.S. tariffs on Brazil affected maybe the mood of international investors towards Brazil and the region. I would say it apparently didn't affect so much because of the upward guidance revision but maybe if you could comment here a little bit.
I have a second question now regarding a different topic regarding net debt, dividends and buybacks. So Ana commented during the call, the net debt should remain stable throughout the year, right? And also that you should use this new buyback program as a way to keep the number of outstanding shares in the range of the guided range, right? So I wanted to understand here what should we see in order for the dividend increase from the $0.50 per share we've been seeing for the past 1.5 years. When do you expect net debt to decrease and if we should see that in order for this dividend to increase again?
First question on U.S. tariffs. they're all predictions and expectations, right? It's very hard to understand exactly what's going to happen given that we haven't lived in an environment similar to this for a while now for over 50, 60, 70 years. So we don't have a lot of data to be able to go back and understand what are the exact effects. Of course, in my general view, higher tariffs globally, it's not good news for global trade, for global growth in general, making this general comment. How will these tariffs be the cost of these tariffs be absorbed by the supplier of the goods and services by the importer of the goods and services, it's hard to say. I think it will probably be absorbed within the whole system.
As far as Brazil is concerned, as you know, 12% of our exports are directed to the U.S. and a lot of 45% of that 12% were exempt from the tariffs. So 45% of 12% exempt. So 55% of the 12%, around 6% of our exports are going to the U.S. with higher tariffs. And we might see some additional, I think, exemptions. For example, coffee, it seems that it doesn't make a lot of sense given the exemptions that the Trump administration gave on products similar to coffee with the rationale that if there is a plant or something that does not grow in the U.S., they have to import it without tariffs. And coffee is one of them. Coffee does not grow in the Northern Hemisphere. So that can be another 5% to 7% of the exports. And so we might be affected by 35% to 40% of the export, not 55% as of now.
So in the end, I think we're it might not really change the needle dramatically for Brazil. I have here Luis Fernando Lopes with us. Our initial math does account for a 0.2% to 0.4% of reduction in GDP and the whole thing gets into effect and nothing comes back. And that was more of the 100% of tariffs on 100% of the goods. Tariffs on 55% of the goods is more to the 0.2%, 0.3% than the 0.4%. So as I was mentioning earlier, we were expecting GDP to grow around 3% this year in Brazil. So we might see by the end of the year, that reducing to an annualized growth rate of 2.6%, 2.7% because of the tariff. So it's -- of course, it's painful, but I don't think it's dramatic in the sense that our 3% GDP growth will go down to 0 in Brazil, something like that. It's on the -- as we say here on the margin, right, on the margin. So that's, I think, is more of the economic impact.
I think the second part of your question, I think there's a political impact, which is caused, I think everybody's concern and attention that these tariffs are not really derived from trading issues, but they come from political issues. And that puts us in a more uncertain scenario, right? Because even if we go back and we have good trade negotiations, but we didn't fix as far as Mr. Trump is concerned, the political side of it, where do we land. And so that puts us in a more uncertain position. So it's harder to say where will this thing land.
So the third thing that I would say before I conclude the question here, other regions of the world, Middle East and Asians and Europeans, I think they have moved in the direction of investing more in Latin America as we see from our higher and robust fundraising for the first half of '25, and we see the pipeline with very robust fundraising for the next 5, 6 months of 2025. And some of it has to do with this. I think, look, I'm going to direct my exports not into the U.S., I'm going to direct my exports to Latin America. And the Chinese car industry, for example, they're very competitive. They're directing their exports to Brazil and other countries in LatAm.
Other European manufacturers and service providers are directing exports to LatAm and Brazil, in particular. And that, of course, brings them to invest more, be it financial investors, be it strategic investors in the country. And we didn't see any blip in the interest. On the contrary, we saw more interest in the region. And I think it has to do -- and they say it out, actually, our clients say that, the uncertainty of -- now of the U.S. economy in general and maybe the uncertainty of the U.S. being that trade partner that we thought it was in the past, I'm going to look for new markets, for new partners. And even if they shift a small amount of their total and it's in the -- only the new money and in the margin of the new money, that's already a huge amount of money for us, right?
For Brazil, we have an FDI of around $60 billion to $70 billion. Another $5 billion to $10 billion raises the FDI by 10%. And today in today's terms, $5 billion to $10 billion is not a lot of money. Look at us, we're managing close to $50 billion, a Brazilian alternative investment manager. So even us could raise another $10 billion. It would be another 10% of our AUM, and that increases the FDI into Brazil by 5% to 10%, which is amazing. So I think we still -- we continue to be in a good position. So finalizing my answer, I think it's -- the effects of the tariffs are marginal. They're not going -- I think not going to cause major harms in Brazil. Of course, particular sectors are going to suffer a lot more than what I just mentioned. We look into a 0.2% to 0.4% reduction in GDP out of a 3% growth in GDP for Brazil. Of course, very painful, but not very dramatic. But my main concern is on the political side where we land there. But nevertheless, investors continue to show very high interest in our products and in the region.
On the net debt, share count dividend recount here, William, what I can say is like, as Ana mentioned, we see net debt remaining relatively flat from the number that we posted by the end of the second quarter of '25, around $120 million, $130 million. Net debt probably finished the year with $120 million, $130 million of net debt. Share count, we are 159.5 million. The range that we gave at our December 9, 2024 Investor Day was 158 million to 160 million shares, and I think we're going to stay in that -- within that share count. And we don't foresee any increase in the dividend as of today. So we continue with $0.15 per share per quarter, and our Board last week approved the dividend of $0.15 per share to be paid for the second quarter of 2025, and we see that dividends will remain in the third quarter and the fourth quarter.
As we approach the end of the year and if the fundraising continues to go the way that we are seeing and the uncertainties that we just described in my answer here recedes, and we see 2026 as robust as we are seeing when I answer my question here to Tito from Goldman, we can review this dividend policy. But as of today, we're remaining with $0.15 per share for the third quarter and the fourth quarter. I hope I answered your question.
And the next question will come from the line of Guilherme Grespan of JPMorgan.
My question is more as well to pick your brain a little bit related, how do you think the business, Alex, in relation to geography? And just the context of the question, I have been having more and more debates around Brazil potential bull case scenario next year. And this bull case, I think it's a combination of potential administration change plus lower rates. So some investors are seeing the scenario of a risk on scenario in Brazil. And my question to you is how do you see Patria nowadays? And how much should we expect in terms of benefits from Brazil, specifically?
Because if you go into the past 10 years ago, it used to be a very specific concentrated asset in Brazil, right? But I think for the right reasons, you diversified a lot of business. Nowadays, Brazil, I think, if I recall correctly, it's only 25% of the fundraising. And if you can recap, I'm not sure how much it represents in terms of asset allocation. But my point to you is, if we see this bull case scenario in Brazil in terms of risk-only environment, do you think fundraising trends are expected to accelerate or at this point, do you think it's reasonable to see a steady growth going forward independent if Brazil does super well or not?
Guilherme, definitely so. I think if there's a re-rating, as you just explained, linked to the political shift to a center-right government in Brazil, definitely, in my view, fundraising and prices of assets post-election will rise. And we've been seeing that, and we've been following that. And we do cover that very closely. And you can see from all kinds of graphs and data points what happens with -- in the shift from center-left to center-rights in economies like Brazil. There's some correction or increase in the prices of assets before, but a big correction in prices of the assets post the election and increases in fundraising, in general.
But what I would like to highlight is not just Brazil. Not by chance, but by strategy, as you mentioned, we did diversify our business into other countries in Latin America first and then into Europe. And what you just mentioned about Brazil is also happening in other countries in Latin America, mainly in Chile and Colombia. And today, on the liability side, we have 65% of our fundraising from investors that are based outside of LatAm, 20% from investors based outside of Brazil, Latin investors that are not Brazilians or based in Brazil and 15% of our fundraising coming from Brazilian-based investors, 65/20/15. On the asset side, where do we invest this money? It's is more or less 1/3, 1/3, 1/3, in Brazil. It's 28%, 30%. I'm just rounding the numbers to make it easier here and illustrate my example, 1/3 in LatAm ex-Brazil and 1/3 outside of LatAm, okay?
So taking a view of the 1/3, which is LatAm ex-Brazil, and I also mentioned earlier, it's just 3% in Mexico. So it's mainly Chile, Peru and Colombia. These 3 countries are growing -- sorry, are growing over the next 4 to 12 months or 4 to 18 months through elections. And we already see the same effect that you just mentioned for Brazil in Chile. Most probably, the election polls are showing us that a center-right government in Chile will win. Is it Mrs. Matthei or Mr. Kast and that puts us in a very good position to re-rate Chile. You can see that the more liquid securities in the Chilean economy are already being priced up. And we can see also fundraising of our Chilean clients to be more exposed to this re-rating of Chile going up. So we're raising more money in Chile to bet on this re-rating strategy or election strategy or election arbitrage, as we call. And we go then next, which is the presidential elections in Chile are happening -- should happen at the end of this year.
Then we go into 2026, we have elections in Colombia and Peru. And in Colombia, the same, the same, a little behind Chile because the elections in Colombia is just in the second quarter of 2026. But what the polls show today that most probably, we're going to have a center-right government because the popularity of the current government President there, Mr. Petro is really, really low. And with that, the whole re-rating, the whole election arbitrage, and we are playing, of course, with that, we're seeing investors willing to invest in our funds. We're having success in raising a private equity fund in Colombia, success in raising an infrastructure fund in Colombia and mostly through our institutional investors clients. And they are saying exactly that, that you mentioned about Brazil, about Colombia.
And then Peru comes next. And we have the Vice President of Peru actually took over as the running President, and she is then conducting elections in 2026. And she managed to do the same thing that Mrs. [indiscernible] managed, right? Her popularity is lower than the inflation in Peru, which is a rare position to be in. But her population is lower than the inflation in Peru. I think her population is around 2%, 3%. I don't know how low can you get -- how can you get lower than that, right? And inflation in Peru around 4%. So inflation in Peru is higher than her popularity. We normally say here, at Patria, that when your popularity rate is lower than the inflation rate, I think it's time for you to go, right, which is, I think, the case of the Peruvian President. And she's going to be substituted by a center-right President. So the Peruvian economy also has this election arbitrage.
And then comes us Brazil, end of '26. very, very early to say 16 months before an election, 18 months before an election, so many things can happen. But I think there's a chance of the center-right government to win the elections here in Brazil. And that arbitrage play will come into effect, and we see that into play more of the hedge funds that we see investing in some of our funds. We see the local investors already betting on that. We see also several data points. As you know, we had a very large sizable short position on the real at the beginning of the year. That short position basically diminished. I don't think people are in a buy long position, but I think the short position went to a neutral position. Same in the stock exchange. I think the short went to a neutral position.
So I haven't seen here in Brazil because it's the latest -- it's the fourth country in my list here, Chile, Colombia, Peru and then comes elections in Brazil. So we're a little further down the road, the Brazilian elections. But I already saw a shift from a short position to a neutral and we might get into a long buy position as we head into the end of '25 and '26 and the elections poll shows that the center-right in Brazil have a good chance to win. So yes, very exciting moments, to be honest, William. And we're going to play this 2/3 of our assets, as I mentioned, invested here in the region, not only in Brazil.
In Mexico, we don't see that, of course, the President there was just reelected for a 6-year term. So -- but it's amazing. We look into the Mexican and Colombian and Chilean economy. Why are these economies having -- been able to have low interest rates in Brazil? Very simple, the fiscal, right? Mexico is investment grade with a 50% debt-to-GDP. Chile is investment grade OECD and Mexico is also OECD member. Chile investment grade OECD member and also interest rates coming down with a fiscal stands relatively under control, 40% debt-to-GDP.
Colombia, not investment grade, but it's 50% debt-to-GDP, moving a notch up to 50-something percent of debt-to-GDP, but the leadership in Colombia is quite complex. And us here with gross debt at 76% of gross debt-to-GDP. So the fiscal says a lot about these 4 countries as well, right, that I just mentioned. So we might have even not only a center-right government winning the next election, but a solution or at least a path to a solution to our fiscal problem, and that adds to the whole rerating or election arbitrage in Brazil. So pretty excited, to be honest, and we see all of this happening in all these countries, and we did expose Patria on purpose by strategy to these countries.
And lastly, if I go to Europe, we're basically exposed to the U.K. U.K. is doing reasonably well given the situation and went out and already signed a tariff deal with the U.S. administration, which seems as a good tariff deal given what the European Union signed and given what [ Japan ] signed. So they are in the good side. And that also is an economy that's interesting, a lot of infrastructure investors because of their higher defense spending, et cetera. So I'm pretty excited here, William. I hope I answered your question -- Guilherme, I'm sorry.
And this does conclude the Q&A session for today. I would like to turn the call over to Alex Saigh, CEO, for closing remarks. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Thanks for the call. Thanks for coordinating the call as well. And again, we're very excited with the news of the first half of the year and looking to a great 2025. Thanks for your participation. Thanks for the patience, and I hope to see you all in person and safe in the near future. Thank you. Bye-bye.
Thank you all for participating in today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
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Patria Investments — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
Patria Investments — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Fundraising: $1,3 Mrd. im Q2; $4,5 Mrd. Jahr-to-date (75% des ursprünglichen $6 Mrd.-Ziels).
- FRE (Fee-related earnings): $46,1 Mio. (+17% YoY, +8% qoq).
- FEAUM (Fee-earning AUM): $37,2 Mrd. (+20% YoY, +6% qoq); Total AUM $48,7 Mrd.
- Nettozuflüsse: >$600 Mio. im Q2; $1,3 Mrd. H1; $2,4 Mrd. 12M.
- DE (Distributable Earnings): $39 Mio. oder $0,24 je Aktie (+9% YoY).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Guidance-Anhebung: Fundraising-Ziel 2025 auf $6,3–6,6 Mrd. erhöht (5–10% über ursprüngl. Ziel).
- Plattformstrategie: Diversifikation via Produkte, M&A und permanente Kapitalvehikel (≈20% der FEAUM) soll Resilienz und wiederkehrende Gebühren stärken.
- M&A als Hebel: Kauf von 7 brasilianischen REITs (~$600 Mio.) als alternative Kapitalquelle zu Fundraising; Fokus auf Credit & Infrastructure wegen hohem Zinsumfeld.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Fundraising: Neuer Zielbereich $6,3–6,6 Mrd. für 2025 (inkl. künftig erwarteter organischer Zuflüsse).
- FRE-Ziel: $200–225 Mio. für 2025 (≈$1,25–1,40/Aktie); 2027 FRE-Ziel $260–290 Mio., FEAUM-Ziel $70 Mrd.
- PRE & Margen: Performance-related earnings (PRE) Ziel $120–140 Mio. (Q4'24–2027); $15–20 Mio. PRE erwartet H2'25; FRE-Margen erwartet 58–60% p.a.
- Kapitalstruktur: Nettofinanzverbindlichkeiten ≈$130 Mio., Net Debt/FRE ~0,6x; Dividende $0,15/Q und Rückkaufgenehmigung für bis zu 3 Mio. Aktien.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Mexico-Strategie: Einstieg über kleine FIBRA (~$26 Mio.) JV mit lokalem Partner; Fokus zunächst auf Logistik, dann skalierbarer Ausbau für lokale Pensionsfonds.
- Deployment-Pipeline: $3,3 Mrd. ausstehende FEAUM (≈$1,3 Mrd. Infra); aktive Pipeline in Brasilien/Kolumbien (Konzessionen, Solar, Wasser) mit Co‑Investoren.
- REIT-Integration: Vectis-Teil geschlossen; Genial-Transaktionen größtenteils genehmigt – Beiträge sind klein (jährlich ~ $1,5 Mio. Umsatz → ~ $1 Mio. FRE für 2025).
⚡ Bottom Line
- Kernergebnis: Starke Fundraising‑Dynamik und organische Zuflüsse unterstützen die Anhebung der Ziele; FRE-Wachstum und niedrige Verschuldung bieten solide Basis. Kurzfristige Upside-Potenziale: Realisationen von PRE und Deployment der $3,3 Mrd. Ausstehenden. Risiken: Timing der Kapitalverwendung, FX- und Handels-/Tarif‑Unsicherheiten.
Patria Investments — Special Call - Patria Investments Limited
1. Management Discussion
Hi, everyone. I'm Robert Lee, Head of Shareholder Relations of Patria, and welcome to our second Pax Talks, an investor-driven deep dive into value creation in our infrastructure business. We're very happy to have with us today leading the Q&A, Matt Cook. Matt is an investor at Potente Partners, which was founded in 2021 with a global long/short strategy focused on small and mid-cap businesses. Before Potento, Matt was a private equity and public markets investor in frontier and emerging markets. He did his undergraduate work at University of Cape Town and as masters and MBA degrees, in the U.K. and the U.S. From Patria, we are very pleased to welcome Roberto Cerdeira, Partner and Chief -- Chief of Portfolio Management for infrastructure. Roberto is basically in charge of essentially managing the portfolio of companies and projects and overseeing value creation. This will be a fireside chat Q&A format. If you do have questions, each of you will have an opportunity to submit them, and we'll try to get to as many as we can.
Of course, before we get started, and I do some other introductory remarks, I have to read the obligatory forward-looking statement. So I'd like to remind everyone that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain, do not guarantee future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Patria assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on current management expectations and involve risks, including those discussed in the risk factors section of our latest Form 20-F annual report. Also note that no statements on this call constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an ortho to purchase an interest in any Patria fund. As a foreign private issuer, Patria reports financial results using international financial reporting standards or IFRS, as opposed to U.S. GAAP. Additionally, we would like to remind everyone that we will refer to certain non-IFRS sure, which we believe are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business, but which should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. Reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable IFRS measures are included in our various earnings presentations and SEC filings.
Okay. With that out of the way, let me start off by framing and putting some perspective on our infrastructure platform, why it's important to investors before turning it over to Matt and Roberto. So to start, our infrastructure platform started in 2006, is currently raising Development Fund V, which along with related vehicles, has over $2.1 billion of fee-paying commitments our infrastructure platform, which includes development, core, core plus and infrastructure credit has over $6.7 billion of AUM, $3.7 billion of fee-earning AUM $1.6 billion of pending fee earning and AUM, which includes recently raised some of the managed accounts and $3 billion of total uncalled capital. The vast majority of this capital is in our flagship development funds currently, although our long-term plan is to further develop our core and credit strategies. From a financial and growth perspective, as of the first quarter, this business generated approximately 17% of our management fee revenues, and we expect Infrastructure Fund III will continue to be the main source of our performance fee generation over the next year or so. We definitely view infrastructure as a key component of our growth strategy Patria with solid global and increasing local demand as evidenced by the $900 million of capital we raised in the first quarter in this vertical, driven by 2 large separately managed accounts from 2 sovereign wealth funds. We note that at our December 9 Investor Day, we indicated that we believe infrastructure fee-paying AUM can grow to 12% to 16% of our total fee-earning AUM and from 10% today, suggesting a potential fee-earning AUM growth rate of over 30% per annum as demand expands and as we expand our range of product offerings.
So how do we do this? Well, investment performance is, of course, key and a key point of differentiation of our platform is our boots on the ground development strategy, which Matt and Roberto will review. Simply put, we have over 80 professionals in our infrastructure business, not including only investment teams, but engineers, operations professionals and other professionals who oversee the value creation process that Roberto overseas. We think this gives us a competitive advantage over many peers to operate across the region and an ability to generate consistent excess returns. We also believe this growth potential is supported by significant deployment opportunities within the region. As we reviewed at our Investor Day, we see actionable pipeline of region of over $400 billion over the next 5 years across various strategies and on a more granular level, recently announced the start of a new data center platform, which we expect to have twice the capacity of our last one.
So with that as a backdrop, let me turn it over to Matt and Roberto. Guys, thank you for doing this, and it's all yours.
Thanks, Rob. Yes. Look, thanks for doing this. I appreciate it a lot. And as investors, I think as we've put into packs in the story. And obviously, you up to the Investor Day in December. As you just outlined, our 30% AUM growth being a target or an implied target for the infrastructure business. It just shows that for the public markets and FRE per share is a key metric and infrastructure is going to be a massive driver of like incremental FRE per share between now and 2027 under the plan. So I think it's an important part of the business to understand better. And probably also just sort of try and from our perspective, at least correct some of the perception that Patria is a private equity manager when it's much more than that and you had relative success in infrastructure. So there is a good track record and hopefully, a lot of fundraising to come. But yes, we wanted to just understand a few things better. So the first is just clarifying a couple of things. And then I wanted to come on to 2 -- I think were 2 key topics, which hopefully drive the equity story and I think are key to driving the FRE per share. And the first is why is partly deserve to win in infrastructure, like sure there's a very big opportunity, but why should you get that AUM from global LPs and of someone else. And then the second is just a bit more granularity on the opportunity. And I think the thing that's potentially quite exciting is these privatizations happening in Brazil.
Before that, so Rob you $6.7 billion of AUM. So Roberto -- so how much of that is the legacy or the core equity strategy, which you guys also call development? And then how much is the other stuff?
First of all, good morning, everyone. I'm really happy to be here. Thanks, Matt and Rob for the introductions. And for doing that, I think as most of you know, I mean, infrastructure started here with the development group, right with the development funds, 20 years ago, I would say the opportunity was really on doing that, and doing the development of new infrastructure to the region. And that's why we have equipped ourselves to be able to do that. Most recently, a few years ago, we saw an increase in opportunities of buying mature assets where we also saw an edge of improving things. and we got into credit for infrastructure, right? So for now, still we see for the $6.7 billion per at about 6.2% is still development in our funds, development funds, now to 1.5 and $500 million is spread across core and credits.
Okay. And how big could core become and credits today? Do you see them 1 day being as biggest development?
Look, I think the potential is really big match. I think as the market is evolving in the region. We are seeing more and more strategic players recycling their portfolios we're seeing in the privatization of bigger firms. And we have built such a great and big platform of different assets in renewables in communications, in environmental services and total roads. So I think at the moment, core plus and credit are really a big opportunity. I think if you look into what has happened in recent years in the region, for instance, the largest privatizations of operational companies in energy or environmental services have happened in the region, right? You probably heard about Sabeti, which is the warrant sanitation company of the state of Sao Paulo. This is a company valued at over $8 billion, right, in a market cap, it was privatized in 2024. The same for Eletrobras. It's 1 of the biggest power generation companies in the world equity value of over $12 billion, and there's more platforms like that, not as big as this 2, but there's many billion-dollar deals coming to the market. And I think of all the knowledge we have from developing similar assets. I think we have a really good opportunity to tap more and more into core or loss and credit.
Maybe, Matt, just add some industry color on that. One of the things you've seen at some of the U.S. alt managers is that they all started kind of with a traditional fund, but then they expanded into corn cores. And in a very simple level, if you develop an asset and it's good and you've derisked it, the return profile changes, but why do you want to sell that asset, right? You want to have another home where you can place that with usually a different set of investors, but it makes sense since you operate it, you know it. And I would point out that our core strategy right now in Brazil is actually a listed product. So it's actually as permanent capital right now. It's -- as we look out in the future, we think there's -- as Alberto mentioned, a lot of interesting opportunity to put those into a very long duration structures.
Okay. Interesting. All right. So you could actually hold on to some of your development assets longer as well. That's interesting. And then the data center business, you recently announced this is called Omni, right, the new data center platform. Where does that fit? Is that also in that development business, right?
Yes. So that's starting in our development fund, right? We are we like to repeat the businesses we like, right? So we did a lot of toll roads and we exited some toll roads. Now we are doing more toll roads. We did a lot of telecom towers. We saw the trials and now we're doing it again. And a couple of years ago, we sold our first data center platform. It was a company called Data where we made over 4x the money in our investment. We saw a very good IRR. And of course, all the audience here knows that. But AI is really transforming this industry and the demand for data center is really growing dramatically. So we decided to launch this new platform we call EMEA. It's going to be a platform. We've seen the Fund V. But as the demand is so big and it's starting big with over 100 megawatts in capacity we are bringing co-investors with us in that investment. I think this is going to be something that will start with something around $1 billion of commitment, which is really big. And I think the space for more, right? Because Brazil maybe some people don't know that, but we have renewable energy available here, like solar, wind, cheap and renewable available in many parts of the country. We have available land in strategic locations as we have fiber optics, connecting the Northeast of Brazil to Europe to the U.S. and to many other parts of the world. It's a region without big geopolitical risks, it's almost no risk, right? I mean there's no conflict, there's no wars or anything like that. So it's a very interesting situation where, especially for AI, we can be a big hub offering does for clients in many parts of the world. So it's something that is starting here in Fund V, bringing for investors with us, but as this is something that is going to grow a lot. I mean, maybe there's a chance to have an independent vertical later or something that will start as an investment of the fund, but there could be a much bigger than that.
Okay. Okay. Interesting. Yes, I want to come back to that. That's obviously a broad sector and probably a big opportunity. Been more generally than robots. So for when we look at the business, the key is whenever people talk about infrastructure in my experience is they'll say, we need this much infrastructure in the Middle East or Africa or wherever, and it's these like trillion dollar numbers that are hard to really wrap your head around the number is always huge. So I guess it's really about what positions partially to win that. So as keen to understand more about starting with the team, what is the infrastructure you guys have in place? Why should global allocators would they be giving their AUM to Patria and someone else and therefore, that eventually flow to shareholders as FRE thanks for the question.
Look, first of all, let me tell you about the team here, right? I mean we have the largest dedicated investment team dedicated to infrastructure in the region. We currently have professionals that are only doing infrastructure. They are organized into verticals. That's something we can only do we have scale right in 15, 20 years ago when we started, we had a small team of known specialists that would do energy, logistics, environmental services. Now we have teams that are specialized in logistics and transportation, toll roads, telecommunications, environmental services, energy and these people as they are only covering their own industries. They have very good knowledge about what's going on in the market. They have their relationships. They have knowledge about the projects and they keep reassessing the projects. So it's really a big and specialized team of investment professionals in this practice, we have 7 partners that have been working together for over 15 years, doing a developing infrastructure in LatAm. So a lot of experience within the firm and within the partners. And we also have our value creation team with 40-plus professionals that we actually share with the private equity group, and in that group of people, we have a lot of engineers. We have a strategic procurement people. We have live, we have regulatory specialist compliance, all of that kind of assessing the entire portfolio and bringing the knowledge that we have in our portfolios to pass, right? So it's a lot of people, very experienced people and also very well aligned with our investors, right? I mean, because of the way you compensate. Let's say then because of the way we retain them. So we really like the only team with data multi experience and the app experience, developing assets and infrastructure in the region.
So with the only kind of comparable teams or institutions would be what strategics, no other PE firms or financial sponsors?
Yes. Most of the time, Matt, when we are boom for an auction or we're going over a bilateral conversation to buy a company. I mean most of the time are competing with strategic players. I mean the last 3 or 4 auctions that we participated in toll roads, for instance, it was only strategic players on the other side of the table for energy in most of the time, when you're talking about strategic players. Sometimes you see some financial players, but what they're going to do is they're going to be partnering with a construction company or not a strategic player, and they will try to transfer the risk to them, right? And that makes the entire structure and the strategy is the less competitive. The way we do it is we really like -- we have the engineers. We have the technical team. We have the technical capability. So we take the same risks as strategic player would do with that. We are more competitive. And we are also more able to adjust and adapt if something goes wrong throughout the road, right, if there's a problem we have the capability to solve it. I think that's a competitive advantage for us.
Okay. That's interesting. Yes. So if I had to put my sine cat on to challenge you on this, it would be that a lot of private equity firms all talk about value creation and value creation teams, operations teams, and it's also unclear how real that is. So do you have examples we could talk about. So maybe something that's gone well, something that's not gone well, but what the Patriot team did or how it's been able to move the needle on infrastructure investments?
Sure. No. First of all, let me give you a sense of what we operate here in terms of the size of the portfolio because maybe that's -- there's a lot of value creation going on also because of what we have, we manage here, right? Of course, we have been investing and managing and selling a lot of companies. We have given a lot of money back to our investors. But as our funds have been growing, the size of our portfolio is also really, really big at the moment. So if you look into the only the development strategy where we are in the Fund V, and we still have some companies 4 from 3 and 4. We currently manage 18 companies, 18 companies, this is over like 18,000 employees. This year is going to be over $1 billion of EBITDA. That's the budget that we have for the year. And every year, we are deploying CapEx to the region, right? Over $1 billion of CapEx to the region. This year is actually a big year we are doing more than that. So what we typically do to manage those companies we are really close to the companies. We're not seeing the boards of the portfolio companies and kind of monitor what's going on as we month? We are really there visiting them, talking to them weekly. And my job here as a partner of the firm is 100% dedicated to the portfolio companies. So I'm talking to the CEOs, I'm talking to the operating partners. I'm talking to the value creation experts on a day-to-day basis. And what we do is really like -- we do a lot of operational benchmarking throughout the portfolio and with other companies, with our competitors. So we try to make sure that when we're looking to SG&A, OpEx, CapEx. We want to make sure we are the most efficient player in the industry. I mean, our returns have to be higher than the strategic players, and they are our competitors, right? So looking to our portfolio we have to be more efficient. If we're not more efficient, we are not winning new projects. We are growing, and we are not delivering the results. So the first thing we do is really to make sure people in our firms understand that we need to be the most efficient players in the market, and we do a lot of -- we use a lot of KPIs and benchmarking to make sure we have that. If you take, for instance, to roads, as an example, I mean we're now delivering 15% to 20% less OpEx than what we had in our investment committee. So we've approved the higher OpEx, and we're now delivering 15% to 20% use because we have been doing a lot of that. We use a lot of innovation, and we help the companies do that and create that culture whenever we feel there's an opportunity to internalize something, for instance, and help the companies do that, we do it. So another example in total for instance, Green conservation is 1 of the largest that these companies have, right? It's like cutting the graph and the trees, right? This is really big for toll roads. Most people do not know that. And when we first got into that industry, we used to hire local companies that were very inefficient. They will have old equipment, they would not use [indiscernible] localization to make sure that the people was going to the right places at the right time that equipment was being used properly, the tractors and things like that. So fuel consumption was high. They were using more people, they needed. There was taxes that we had to pay because we were hiring third parties when we decided to internalize that, it was like -- I mean how we manage 4,000 kilometers of toll roads in Brazil I say we have to hire like 2,000 people to start with. And as we were gaining efficiency via technology, via using more equipment, unless people, we have managed to reduce that cost by 15%. So that's the culture we try to implement and use in the portfolio point to make people see how competitors and the companies are doing things for many years and try to see another way of doing it in a way that we can save some money. You can -- we can be more efficient. And that's good for ESG standards, that's good for our investors, and that's good for us because it makes us more competitive in future auctions. We -- there's a lot of execs I could stay here like talking for ours, but for instance, strategic procurement, right? I mean we have 18 companies in infrastructure portfolio. We have 20-plus companies in the private equity portfolio. There's a lot of things that we have to buy for all the companies, right? So we have a strategic procurement team here within part here that does that for the entire portfolio. And with that we have also managed to save millions of dollars in recent years because to service providers ammunition companies, even layers and they say, look, that's the amount of money we are spending with you or with you and your competitors. If you consolidate that to 1 service provider, how much can we reduce the cost, right? And we have been doing that every single year, we find a new opportunity to go over something like that, and that's helping our companies a lot. It's helping a lot. So there's more maybe throughout the conversation here, I can give you more examples that we go. Typically...
Like is there any situation where you've had a problem like a problem portfolio company that you guys have managed to turn it around? Or is that like this? Because it sounds like it's pretty convincing that you've probably got the biggest long-term investment in team and competency in Brazil, if not in Latin America when it comes to infrastructure? Are there any situations where that's kind of bailed you out with problematic investments?
Sure. So look, doing developing new infrastructure, it's a complex business, right? I mean there's a lot of things that could go wrong. Then, first of all, has to prepare a lot before you're getting to a new project before you start really to commit capital to solving like what we do. So typically, we're going to be studying an M&A or an acquisition or an auction of the new development of nutrition for 2 or 3 years. So we do a lot of preparation, so as to make sure the assumptions we get for certain assets are really well structured and reliable, right? I mean, in our business, you don't want to be too optimistic or too because if you're too conservative, you don't -- you're never going to be an auction, right? There's no deal if you're too conservative. And if you're too optimistic, you're going to win, but you're going to lose money, right? So I like to say that we have to be close to the truth. The closest to the truth, the better, right? But there were situations where this mindset and this team has helped us improve returns and also has helped us save returns, our preserve value, right? Maybe I could give you 2 examples, quick examples here for us to show you and not only about value creation, but also about how value creation interacts with investment teams to find the good timing and good opportunities. For instance, AG, 1 of our energy investment transmission line that we did a few years ago. I mean we -- typically transmission lines are going to be low return, consider low return, low risk investments, right? I mean the abstraction is not so complicated. Usually, you have -- of course, you have environmental licensing and permits that can be a little bit more tricky. But typically, if you have the experience doing that, you're going to be able to deliver the asset, right? So typically, it's going to be low returns. In that case of our growth during -- there was a period of time in Brazil where the President was going through an impeachment process. So many strategic players were kind of cautious about coming to Brazil, and they were not taking a long-term view into what was going to happen like a few years later, right? We have managed to get into an auction with minimal competition. Actually, the biggest asset we won at that time. There was 0 competition. And of course, we have managed to go with conservative assumptions for our business plan. And I think it's interesting when I say talk about the mindset, right? It's not because the assumptions were conservative that we decided to go and accommodate ourselves. 20% is fine. We are good. There's nothing we should do. Let's just do what we said we would do, right? So in our case, the mine site is really the owner mindset, right? So the team was like, we think we have more than enough time to build that transmission line. Let's try to optimize things. Let's try to expedite licensing, exportations, engineering projects and I try to anticipate the construction. And we have managed to do that by over 12 months. And that means we are getting more revenues. We were anticipating revenues.
You mean you did your development period in 12 months faster than you initially [indiscernible]?
Yes, the COD was actually over 12 months faster than the underwriting case in the investment committee, which doubt we did like 4x our money in a transmission line. It's very rare for people to be able to do that. But I'm just saying a case where everything was going right we would make the money. We sadly we're going to make. Investment Committee was happy. Investors were happy. Our team was happy. When it started just like waiting for the final COD that was -- people are always thinking about how we can improve returns. Even if it's a company that is doing well. That's -- our team mindset. And of course, there's cases where we saw big challenges. And if we were to stay still and do nothing, returns would be not so good. I think Toll Roads is a good example. We have grown a lot in toll roads. We have just completed the sale of 1 of our roles to foresee into JSW have actually completed the sale of the control to face and how GIC is buying the remaining shares that we own. And as a company, it's a business that started really well. When you talk about toll road, you're doing a lot of derisking, right? So first, you have to do the traffic to skim CapEx derisking, funding derisking, OpEx derisking. In the case of intrayear everything was going well in the beginning. Traffic was fine. We did a very attractive leverage with BNDS. OpEx, as I've mentioned, was going a little bit below budget, which was really good. But then during COVID, actually, there was a big issue for many construction things not only toll roads, but there was a big inflation of CapEx that was much bigger than the index pension that we have for the tariffs. That means CapEx is growing stronger, the cost than the EBITDA, right? Because there was a mismatch being between the CapEx index and the tariff index. And this is that of situation where -- I mean, when you're analyzing the project, it's very hard for you to anticipate that, right? Historically, both inflations were growing at the same pace, right? And because of COVID, asphalt was very expensive, cement was very expensive employees became more expensive everything became more expensive. And what we did was -- we started to put the entire team together value creation team, the CEOs, the engineering directors of our companies. We also have Chief Transformation Officers in our companies, typically people that come from a as a secondment and help us analyze the business plan of these companies to see value levers that we can use. And in that case, we did a lot. It was a number of initiatives that made us in the end, be very close to the original CapEx that we approved in our investment committee. Just for actions. CapEx inflation was above 50% tariff inflation was around 20%. So the difference was around 30%, and we have managed to be practically on budget. What we did? We saw that we could import as of Brazil is self-sustainable in asphalt. You buy it straight from Petrobras, but we saw that there was a mismatch of price importing as far from other countries. So we did a lot. We brought a lot of asphalt from other countries. We decided to build our own at plants. We saw that some local construction opens were using the fact that they had the asphalt plans to kind of block the interest of other players. So we were in the hands of 1 or 2 construction companies. So we saw that, and we realized we have to own our own asphalt plants. And with that, we have also managed to do more recycling of asphalt. Some of our team went to Europe and they saw that in some places, actually 60% to 70% of the asphalt is actually recycled in Brazil is 0. And because we brought the most modern asphalt plants for our operations, we could -- we are now recycling 25% to 30% of the asphalt that we used. So it's a constant discussion in the portfolio companies of how we can improve things and how we can challenge things in order to kind of seek ways to improve efficiency. And we do that in a very also conservative way. So the size of the total business, for instance, that we have, we could have like 4 or 5 asset plans, right? So what we did is, let's start with 1. Let's do a part like a proof-of-concept that is going to yield a big return, and it's going to reduce costs dramatically, then we go for the 3 or 4 asphalt plants. We did that in Brazil. It's very successful. Now we're taking that to Colombia, where we also own 3 toll road concessions. .
The asphalt plant that you built, did you then sell that with when you sold [indiscernible] part of the company? Or do you guys -- are you about to launch your asphalt vertical?
No, no, no. No, actually -- so what we have is we -- these plans that we have, they actually work for the entire portfolio, right? So for now, we are keeping them and the new buyer may either hire us to supply the ocean that's not going to be a new vertical it's going to be like a reduction of costs for the other portfolio companies, right, the margin that you will get or they can do their own as of strategy. But it's something you're going to see. For now, we are keeping the assets for us because the demand we have for our companies in the 30-year concession that we have, we antitheft if we sell these companies as a platform, it's probably going to go with them. If we sell them separately, then we're going to have to figure out where we -- it's not a big investment. We are doing like billions of reais of payment recovery, duplications, et cetera. And as plant is like. So that can change the business materially, but it's not a material CapEx investment. It's more an operational challenge than the availability of capital.
And Roberto, like all this work you guys are doing. So to tie it back to what not is for shareholders, does this help you raise money for infrastructure like to prospective LPs. I know you guys recently -- you did a big SMA with, I think, a Middle Eastern investor. Does this help? Is this -- or maybe it was Asian, is this a topic that they ask about this kind of stuff do they spend a lot of time on the team? Does this go move the needle for them?
Yes. Yes. Look, it's very interesting because many of these investors that are going, that they can for Fund 2, 3, 4. They now do co-investments with us. They invest directly in some of our assets. So for instance, this is pulling information for toll roads. We have 2 other LPs that are very big and always invest with us. They do something that is not typical at all. They actually prepare with us for the auctions. Even if we don't have the asset yet, they're working with us to prepare for the auction and then the bed with us and they sit in the board and the reason why they keep coming to new funds is the fact that they actually know these teams. They know our CEO. They know our CFO, they know how we manage these companies how it creates value what the value creation teams are doing, and they are happy about it. They are very happy. It's a very close relationship with many of these RPs. They are investing in the funds, but they're also investing a lot directly into the portfolio companies and to the platforms. And I think that makes a big difference for them.
Can you maybe have the opportunities -- yes, Rob, go.
Well, I was going to actually as 1 of the questions that we see here. So I mean there are -- we talked about the potential opportunity set in the region over the coming years. So maybe it'd be helpful. How do we as a firm kind of manage that, narrow it down, figure out what do we want to go after a bit after or not. So let's -- if you could talk a little bit about how we become more selective in our process.
And if we could do that, Roberto, if you could tie that into a bit what this Brazil privatization program because it's new to me how big it is. And some of the numbers I've seen are pretty enormous. So yes, if you could maybe answer that question but also value how you work the funnel on these privatization programs?
Great. So first of all, how -- so it's really big and it's actually a lot of verticals actually have a lot of things going on. It's not only productizations, let's say, but new concessions, M&A and a lot of recycling of capital in strategic players where we see opportunities to maybe getting to companies and improve their results. But maybe first, I like the question that Rob did about -- asked about how we've narrowed down the pipeline. I think because we have this big team, we have the ability to kind of monitor all these sectors very closely, right? I mean Latin America is a big continent, with different cultures, with different geopolitical aspects and different economies, right? You have in the same continent we have Argentina, we have Brazil, we have Colombia. We have Venezuela and Panama, right? So you cannot go to -- and even in Brazil, you have Sao Paulo state and you have Rio de Janeiro states, totally different places and with different regulations, different rule of law different politics and macro stability. So what we do is we try to select places where we see strong regulation, rule of law for many years, right? I mean we see what has going on in that market and if contracts are being respected or not if regulatory agents are good and technical, but that's really important for us we see if the projects are bankable, if there's incentivized that, if there's a development bank, if it's going to be local banks, and typically, if it's a concession or productization, we interact a lot with the government. Typically, you have IFC hired to help the governments with these projects or how the MDS, our national development bank also hired they come to the market as for our opinion in the projects we didn't feedback. So it's a long-term process to make sure these projects are feasible and that they have like a good risk matrix, let's say. And whenever we find that the project is feasible and good and the risks are controlled, then we do a deep dive. So you have mentioned that the people say it's a $400 million of of opportunity, right? We typically look into everything like -- but not in the deep way, right? We go and based on these things that I said, we select the loans that we want to do the deep dive. And then we do this drive and we hire third parties. We bring the team before buying the companies or before the auctions. That's what we did with Omnia, for instance, we are not constructing -- we're not building anything yet. We are preparing for it. We still haven't closed the first client. We are preparing for it, but we already have the entire team in place. The team is there. So that's pretty much how we go about it. When we talk about the size of the opportunity, I think First of all, I think we are becoming a global leader in privatization at my team come up with a number these days. saying that for the last 3 years, we have like 30-something percent of the global volume of field actuation in the entire world, right?
Hence in Latin America.
Yes. Yes.
1/3 of global brand position volume is in your range.
Yes. For the last 3 years.
The last 3 years. Okay.
Yes. And when we look forward, we -- in all the verticals that we cover, we see opportunities. So there's a number of transmission line auctions coming to the market over 30,000 kilometers that will be considered to the private initiative. Of course, there's a lot of strategic players looking to that. But very polite is a lot like we're talking about CapEx that could go over $10 billion, $20 billion. When you look into sanitation, there was a big change in regulation a few years ago. Now you have universalization targets for state governments and municipalities, governors help to act in an attest without offering water and huge for the population. There's 11 auctions scheduled for the next 24 months. That's not like a 5 year for the next 24 months, we're expecting 1011 projects to come to the market that's all the $10 billion of CapEx for sanitation. The same for toll roads. So we have 1 of the largest toll road programs in Brazil in the world also there's 5,000 kilometers of toll roads being auctioned in the next 24 months. These are projects with names, locations, and sometimes, it's actually a reaction. It's a total that has conceded 25, 30 years ago. And construction is getting to an end, and it's coming back to the market again. So it's a really interesting risk matrix here a risk return profile, because traffic is known. It has a very long-term history of traffic. You're not building new strategies of role. There's no competition with other roads. It's an easy road with existing traffic. What you have to do is expansions, pavement recovery and things like that. And our team, because we have such a big total platform, they know every single project and then try and have our asphalt plant to provide the asphalt and we have the as plans. And we have the benchmarks that we are doing in order to be more certain, right? We don't have to rely on third-party fashions to come and tell us how much it's going to cost to duplicate a kilometer of a road because we are doing that at this right moment. So we can actually talk to our engineers to our teams understand what the challenges they're facing. And then we use these as an assumption to our business plans, exactly like the strategic player does, right. We -- I mean, of course, we use the third parties and the external advisers. But it's on top of. It's not we are only relying on them in order to get the assumptions right. We -- our teams are doing that. And look...
Let me just make sure I got that right, Roberto. So it's all -- this is more -- this seems pretty near term. So you're saying all within the next 24 months up to $20 billion of grids, auctions, $10 billion of sanitation and I don't know how much many billions of dollars, 5,000 kilometers of toll roads us, but I assume it's a pretty big number.
Yes. So in equity, we think for us, we are seeing $1 billion of equity check for us what we could get. Typically, 1 project is going to be or of equity check a typical project is like 500 kilometers. So talking about 10 projects if we get 3 and we are...
This is just the toll roads?
Just the toll road.
Okay. So then there's the other stuff as well. So as this is what I find interesting because I think you said in the past, you're aspiring to kind of private equity style returns on this -- on these investments, right? So if you let's say you managed to achieve that just on the $1 billion of equity that you put into, let's say, toll road projects if you say you do a 2x on that with some co-invest, maybe your blended carry percentage, it's going to be lower than 20%. But even if it's 15, that was $150 million of carry and you guys are guiding to for the whole country of about $150 million of carry over the next 3 years. So like 1 of these infrastructure verticals could return the entire carry guidance. I understand that won't all happen in the next 3 years, but it just seems to me like infrastructure loan can deliver a little more than that.
Yes. I mean over, I could just real quickly put some perspective. Certainly, over time, yes, it is important to remember, we use a European waterfall as opposed to water policy kind of pushes it out. But actually, that's a more conservative way of realizing car compared to, say, an American waterfall. So even though it delays our recognition, it also reduces our risk of clawback and whatnot. So actually, when you do realize it, it puts more certainty into that realization over time.
Yes. And then I want to make sure we touch on the data centers as well because you're launching this new platform and you were saying earlier, you did a water 4x until the last time with data. So is this a similar team like you have the team in place, you feel like you have the expertise in place, you can try and do something as big as O data again, not necessarily in the multiple, but in the capital deployment?
No, look, 1 of the beauties about having this value creation team and having our own engineering capabilities and teams they are kind of monitoring and helping all the portfolio companies is the fact that we keep the knowledge that we develop in the companies and the platforms here within Patria, right? So in the case of Omnia, we brought a CEO that is very knowledgeable about the industry. He was the CEO of 2 of the largest noncommunication companies in Brazil a company called in and another company called [indiscernible]. He works for Cisco, he the CEO for Cisco in the region for many years. And he used to work for us for a few years while we were developing the data platform with another team. But a few people from his team actually helped people that we are second in to Omnia, they -- a lot of them helped develop data have a Senior Director at the time was your VP and helped us approve the divestment and sell the investment he's now the CFO of ore. We have people in engineering, FP&A, legal, that also came from data. And I see -- when you talk about and our value creation team, our engineers, they have the rates the data from the time why we were building those data centers with our previous asset, right? When you talk about size, of course, I mean we can never promise return right some investments are going to be a little better all this a little worse typically want to have stable returns around private equity returns, but in U.S. dollars, and we have been delivering that. In the case of Omnia, we are starting bigger than data already. The first -- because the market came dramatically the data centers that we are targeting or bigger. And I think that the opportunity to buy much more capital down than in the past. Of course, we are conservative people, and we like to start what we're going to do is we're going to do the first half, and we're going to find the first -- the client, right? It's going well. We have some locations. We are going to secure locations, secure the permits, all the engineering, all the funding and then going to put the equity for the first project as we performed the first project, then we decide to do more. That's exactly what you do. We do in most of the things we do. We started with 1 enrolled. It did well, then we do more. We'll do more in Brazil. When we are comfortable about doing that in Brazil and see the returns are good, then we go to other places. We've got Colombia both Chile or Peru data centers is kind of the same approach. We have to be conservative. I mean we have been showing of losing money. Good returns losing money. So we keep doing that in a conservative way to make sure we turn to find and everybody is happy.
Guys, we're just about at the hour mark. This been great. So Matt, I don't know if you have any 1 last question you want to...
Yes. One was just on the data center opportunity, obviously, you can see how it could be really big. What is -- what financially do those projects look like? Are you -- other tenants scalers and global names people would be familiar with them? Can you get dollar leases on these?
Yes. Yes. There's a bunch of projects where we can get some dollar revenues in the region, especially for data centers nowadays, these are global clients, hyperscalers and these are going to be dollar-denominated companies, let's say, which is also good for as most of our LPs come from. This is something that we have always tried to have.
Interesting. Cool.
Right. Well, guys, this has been great. Really appreciate it. We use the full hour. So thank you, and Matt, thank you so much for doing this and preparing and in the questions and Roberto really appreciate your time. And for anyone who dialed in or zoomed in, thank you for participating. This will be posted on our website in a few days. If you want to revisit it. And of course, if anyone has follow-up questions, please feel free to reach out to myself or Andre Medina and Shareholder Relations, we're happy to answer them. And if necessary direct you to the right person within Patria to help get your questions answered.
So with that, guys, thanks again for taking the time. Super helpful. So we're interesting and everyone who's out there dialed in. Thanks for taking the time out of your busy day and participating. Have a great [indiscernible].
Thanks, Rob. Thanks, Roberto. Bye.
Thank you.
Bye-bye.
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Patria Investments — Special Call - Patria Investments Limited
Patria Investments — Special Call - Patria Investments Limited
📊 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Patria positioniert Infrastruktur als Wachstumshebel: Plattform-AUM $6,7 Mrd., Fee-earning AUM $3,7 Mrd., Development Fund V >$2,1 Mrd. Fokus auf „boots on the ground“-Entwicklung, Ausbau zu Core/Core‑Plus/Credit und ein neues Data‑Center‑Plattformprojekt (Omnia). Management sieht Infrastruktur als Treiber für höhere Fee‑Related Earnings (FRE) pro Aktie.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Team: Größte dedizierte Infrastruktur‑Mannschaft in der Region (80+ Fachleute plus 40 Value‑Creation‑Experten) – sagt Management als Wettbewerbsvorteil gegen strategische Käufer.
- Produktmix: Entwicklung bleibt Kern (~6,2% des AUM), Core‑/Credit‑Strategien ausgebaut; Data‑Center (Omnia) startet in Fund V mit ~100 MW Zielkapazität und Cofinanzierung.
- Fundraising: Q1‑Zufluss von ~$900 Mio., u.a. zwei SMAs mit Staatsfonds; uncalled capital ~$3 Mrd.; Ziel: Infrastruktur soll Fee‑earning AUM von ~10% auf 12–16% steigern.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Konkretes: Omnia startet in Fund V, initial ~100 MW und Zielvolumen ~$1 Mrd.; Management beschreibt klareren Near‑Term‑Pipeline‑Fokus (Privatisierungen, Toll‑Roads, Sanitär, Übertragungsnetze) mit zeitnahen Auktionen in den nächsten 24 Monaten.
- Kein neues Guidance: Keine formelle Änderung der finanziellen Guidance oder Carry‑Prognosen; Aussagen ergänzen Investor Day‑Ziele, liefern aber keine neue quantitative FRE‑Timing‑Prognose.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Wettbewerb: Warum Patria vs. Strategics/PE? Antwort: lokale Engineering‑ und Betriebsfähigkeiten sowie Erfahrung in Ausschreibungen; Management nannte konkrete Beispiele.
- Value Creation: Beispiele für operative Hebel: Asphalt‑Pläne, Recycling, strategische Beschaffung, schnellere Inbetriebnahmen (Transmission line COD >12 Monate früher) – konkrete Kosteneinsparungen genannt.
- Risiken/Timing: Analysten hoben Unsicherheiten hervor: CapEx‑Inflation, Zeitplan privatisierungen, und wann Carry realisiert wird; Management lieferte operative Beispiele, blieb bei Carry‑Timings jedoch zurückhaltend.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Relevanter strategischer Ausbau mit belegter operativer Kompetenz; Infrastruktur (insb. Omnia, Toll‑Roads, Sanitär, Übertragungen) kann FRE pro Aktie deutlich treiben, aber Wertrealisierung hängt von Auktionserfolgen, Bau‑/Tarifdynamik und dem europäischen Waterfall‑Timing ab. Anleger sollten Fund‑V‑Closings, Omnia‑Meilensteine und erste Carry‑Ereignisse verfolgen.
Finanzdaten von Patria Investments
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Mär '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 399 399 |
2 %
2 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 210 210 |
11 %
11 %
53 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 189 189 |
6 %
6 %
47 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 49 49 |
9 %
9 %
12 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | - - |
-
-
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 101 101 |
24 %
24 %
25 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 72 72 |
0 %
0 %
18 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen USD.
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| Hauptsitz | Cayman-Inseln |
| CEO | Mr. Saigh |
| Mitarbeiter | 548 |
| Gegründet | 2001 |
| Webseite | www.patria.com |


