Northern Star Resources Aktienkurs
Vergleich mit Peer Group
📊 Peer Group
📈 Was ist das?
Die Peer Group sind die Unternehmen mit dem ähnlichsten Geschäftsmodell. Sie dienen als Vergleichsmaßstab, um eine Aktie einzuordnen.
🧮 Wie wird sie ausgewählt?
Nach Ähnlichkeit des Geschäftsmodells, also Unternehmen aus derselben Branche, mit vergleichbaren Produkten und einer ähnlichen Kundengruppe. Nur so vergleichst du Äpfel mit Äpfeln.
🏛️ Wofür ist sie wichtig?
Ob eine Aktie günstig oder teuer ist, lässt sich am ehesten im Vergleich beurteilen. Ein KGV von 18 oder ein EV/FCF von 20 wirkt je nach Maßstab günstig oder teuer. Die Peer Group liefert dabei den treffsichersten Maßstab: Unternehmen mit ähnlichem Geschäftsmodell, die denselben Bedingungen unterliegen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
Liegt eine Kennzahl unter dem Peer-Durchschnitt, ist die Aktie relativ günstiger bewertet, über dem Durchschnitt entsprechend teurer. Ein Abschlag zur Peer Group kann eine Chance sein, aber auch einen Grund haben (zum Beispiel geringeres Wachstum). Der Vergleich ist ein Startpunkt, kein Urteil.
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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 31,71 Mrd. A$ | Umsatz (TTM) = 6,96 Mrd. A$
Marktkapitalisierung = 31,71 Mrd. A$ | Umsatz erwartet = 7,72 Mrd. A$
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 32,64 Mrd. A$ | Umsatz (TTM) = 6,96 Mrd. A$
Enterprise Value = 32,64 Mrd. A$ | Umsatz erwartet = 7,72 Mrd. A$
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Northern Star Resources Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
19 Analysten haben eine Northern Star Resources Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
19 Analysten haben eine Northern Star Resources Prognose abgegeben:
Northern Star Resources Events
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Vergangene Events
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AUG
19
2026 Earnings Call
vor etwa einem Monat
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JUL
28
Q4 2026 Earnings Call
vor etwa 2 Monaten
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APR
21
Q3 2026 Earnings Call
vor 5 Monaten
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MÄR
12
Northern Star Resources Limited, 2026 Operating Results Call, Mar 13, 2026
vor 7 Monaten
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FEB
11
Q2 2026 Earnings Call
vor 8 Monaten
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JAN
21
Q2 2026 Earnings Call
vor 8 Monaten
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JAN
4
Northern Star Resources Limited, 2026 Guidance/Update Call, Jan 05, 2026
vor 9 Monaten
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OKT
22
Q1 2026 Earnings Call
vor 11 Monaten
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aktien.guide Basis
Northern Star Resources — 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Northern Star FY '26 Financial Results. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Stuart Tonkin, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thanks for joining us on the call today. As this is my last market call, I'll speak briefly on my tenure at Northern Star Resources and then hand over to Ryan Gurner to present the highlights for the financial year and the outlook for FY '27. There's been a lot to focus on in the recent trading period. But for those that have been here with me on the journey for the past 13 years, we've been on an incredible journey and had some real fun along the way.
During that time, we've seen annual gold production increase twentyfold. We've enjoyed a 30x uplift in share price from $0.70. Over the 13 years, gold resources have grown 40 times to 89 million ounces, and market capitalization is up 100x from $300 million to over $30 billion. As a true demonstration of any healthy business we give back. To date, we have returned $3.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.
During my tenure, I have seen the team grow from a humble single asset with 250 jobs to now a global portfolio employing over 10,000 people with decades of future ahead. This is something which I am extremely proud of. It's a rare experience to be associated with such success, and I really wish to give huge recognition to the numerous great people that I've had the privilege to work alongside through both the challenges and opportunities. This is the team that will continue to drive success in the future. Their relentless efforts, 24/7, 365 days a year is what matters and truly makes the difference.
The star core values are strong, and our team are the true contributors to value creation and have done the heavy lifting to build the great company that Northern Star is today. There is no doubt that we have built an exceptional platform that is absolutely set up for success in the very near term. Northern Star will continue to generate significant value for shareholders, and I'm proud to have worked with such an outstanding team.
I'd now like to hand over to our very capable Deputy CEO, Ryan Gurner to talk to the highlights of FY '26 and the outlook for FY '27.
Thanks, Stu, and good morning, all. I'd also like to welcome here today our Steve McClare, our Chief Technical Officer, who is joining us today and who'll talk to a few of the slides. So welcome, Steve.
I'm pleased to now present to you the financial results for the year ended 30 June '26 and our outlook next year -- or this year, I should say. And I'll be referring to the slides in the results presentation pack from here. So if we go to Page 4, FY '26 was a year of significant investment and transition for Northern Star as we completed Stage 1 of the mill expansion at KCGM. While the business faced operational challenges during the year, the underlying strength of the portfolio remained evident in the financial results. The group generated $4.3 billion of underlying EBITDA, up 22% on the prior year, which translated into $2.9 billion of cash earnings. Importantly, despite FY '26 representing the peak investment phase of KCGM mill expansion, the business still generated $190 million of underlying free cash flow.
Today, the Board has declared a fully franked dividend of $0.30 per share bringing total FY '26 dividends to $0.55 per share. And during the year, the company completed $129 million of its $500 million on-market share buyback program. We enter FY '27 with the KCGM expansion commissioning underway, marking the transition from a period of significant investment to 1 focused on operational execution and value realization. Supported by an investment-grade balance sheet and financial flexibility, the business is well positioned to begin capturing the benefits of this transformational investment.
Turning to Slide 5. Our balance sheet remains a key strength. We ended the year with $1.2 billion in cash and bullion with gearing leverage and liquidity metrics all comfortably within our financial targets. Our financial position is further supported by access to flexible long-term funding and we continue to maintain 3 investment-grade credit ratings. This reflects both the quality of our asset portfolio and longevity of our production profile, all located within Tier 1 jurisdictions. We enter FY '27 with a well-funded business, strong balance sheet and the flexibility to progress our organic growth pipeline while maintaining capital allocation discipline.
If we go to Slide 6 now. Our approach to capital management remains unchanged. And as mentioned earlier, the Board has declared a fully franked final dividend of $0.30 per share, bringing the total FY '26 dividend of $0.55 per share. This represents a 27% payout of cash earnings and approximately $785 million returned to shareholders through fully franked dividends during the year. In addition, we completed $121 million of our $500 million on-market share buyback program.
Now to Slide 7, which highlights all 3 production centers generating strong margins and making meaningful contributions to group earnings. At a group level, FY '26 underlying EBITDA margin was 56%, with underlying EBITDA of over $2,700 per ounce, reflecting the strength of the gold price environment. Kalgoorlie delivered a particularly strong result, achieving 64% EBITDA margin, while Pogo continued its improvement trajectory, achieving a 60% EBITDA margin. Yandal delivered a 47% EBITDA margin and contributed approximately $1 billion of EBITDA during the year. While margins were lower than Kalgoorlie and Pogo, we remain focused on further improvement here. Importantly, Yandal remains a significant contribution to the group generating over $300 million in net mine cash flow during the year. I'd like to point out a reconciliation of statutory impact to underlying EBITDA and cash earnings has been provided in the appendix of this presentation on Slide 18. And Slide 17 outlines abnormal items to reconcile from statutory profit to underlying NPAT.
If we move over to Slide 8 now, which highlights our continued improvement in returns and earnings per share. FY '26 delivered an 18% increase in return on capital employed with ROCE increasing to 13.4%, while underlying earnings per share increased 5% to $1.24 per share. Underlying EBITDA also increased 25% year-on-year to $2.7 billion. Importantly, these improvements were achieved during a year of significant operational transition and investment including the Stage 1 commissioning of the KCGM mill expansion. And as KCGM transitions from commissioning into steady-state operations, the asset will become an increasingly important driver of earnings, free cash flow and shareholder returns.
Over the slide to Page 9, we've released our FY '26 reporting suite today which provides a comprehensive overview of our safety, environmental, social and governance performance. These documents outline our approach to responsible business practices and the progress made during FY '26. I encourage you to read them alongside the annual report.
Now Slide 10. The company is forecast to deliver group production of 1.5 million to 1.65 million ounces in FY '27. Production is expected to be weighted to the second half of FY '27 reflecting planned major shutdowns in the September quarter and the commissioning at KCGM. We will discuss KCGM in more detail over the coming slides. Jundee's operational review is complete with the outcomes incorporated into an updated medium-term mine plan that rationalizes the operating footprint and optimizes the mining sequence. FY '27 all-in sustaining cost is forecast at $3,050 to $3,450 per ounce, with cost per ounce expected to improve through the year. This guidance reflects approximately 5% inflation across the portfolio, higher royalties associated with the gold price, together with higher oil price assumptions, drawdown of stockpiles at Karasudam, Jundee and KCGM and approximately $850 million to $915 million of sustaining capital. primarily comprising underground development and associated ventilation, power and pumping infrastructure. And I would like to highlight Bannockburn at our Thunderbox operation is now in commercial production. And that means the stripping costs and the associated equipment costs are now within sustaining capital at that production center, which is about $85 million to $95 million for FY '27. FY '27, total group capital investment, which includes sustaining capital, growth capital and the Hey project is forecast at $2.6 billion to $2.9 billion.
While contingency has been incorporated into the capital plan, our proportion of capital expenditure remains discretionary, providing flexibility to optimize expenditure in line with operating performance and capital allocation priorities. FY '27 growth capital of $1.5 billion to $1.77 billion comprises operational growth capital of the Kalgoorlie, Yandal and Pogo production centers and KCGM mill expansion and readiness. $200 million to $250 million is planned for the heavy project primarily for ongoing engineering design, NPI works and commitments for long lead items.
Exploration expenditure in FY '27 is forecast at $230 million to $250 million, with investment focused on KCGM, Pogo Hemi to support resource growth and mine life extensions. Steve will talk to this shortly. FY '21, depreciation and amortization is forecast at $1,000 to $1,200 per ounce. And the effective tax rate is forecast at 30% to 32% with FY '27, cash tax payments forecast at $450 million to $550 million based on current assumptions, which incorporates approximately $300 million to $350 million of cash tax benefits associated with the acquisition of the Hemi project.
Over to Slide 11 now. We are guiding KCGM production of 550,000 to 650,000 ounces for FY '27. The guidance range reflects a balanced assessment of ramp-up expectations and associated risks during the early stages of commissioning. It has been informed with the early data from commissioning and Northern Star's established operational planning technical review and risk assessment process, supported by external benchmarking and an independent technical assessment. The range also considers downside scenarios relating to ramp-up performance, stockpile grade variability and recovery performance following completion of Stage 2. KCGM is forecast to deliver 3.5 million to 4 million tonnes per annum of underground ore with open pit mining at Golden Pike North continuing.
At KCGM, operational growth capital of $895 million to $945 million is forecast, primarily relating to the Fimiston South cutback and associated mining fleet expenditure supporting targeted material movement of 60 million to 65 million tonnes this year. Underground development and infrastructure at Fimiston underground in Mt Charlotte, together with the equipment flat costs supporting mining activities across the underground operations. mid-life refurbishments of the open pit fleet associated with the Fimiston South cutback Processing capital works and capital drilling to support future resource and reserve growth. We have combined the mill expansion project and readiness projects with the FY '27 forecast expenditure of $350 million to $470 million.
This comprises KCGM mill expansion project of $150 million to $210 million to complete Stage 2 and consolidate Gigi processing into a single hub. The capital outlook includes additional contingency as a prudent measure, reflecting the remaining construction commissioning and transition activities ahead. KCGM tailing facilities, we are guiding $100 million to $120 million to complete the final stage of the project and the KCGM Power infrastructure, $100 million to $140 million for the new seal power station and renewable-ready transmission infrastructure.
I'd now like to hand to Steve McClare to talk through our growth projects. Thanks very much, Steve.
Thank you, Ryan. Turning to Slide 12, where I'll discuss the FY '27 outlook for KCGM, our largest asset. The 27 million tonne per annum processing expansion has now moved into the commissioning phase and remains on schedule. All commissioning is underway, then project handover to operation occurs and the ramp-up to follow a measured approach to the first half of FY '27. The existing processing plant is expected to operate through August before tying to the expanded processing facility in September. Stage 2 remains on traffic completion in late 1 half FY '27 and is expected to deliver additional benefits through improved recoveries and the elimination of concentrate haulage between KCGM and Gigi.
Importantly, FY '26 represented the peak capital investment phase of the expansion project. As we move through commissioning and establish operating parameters during FY '27, our focus shifts from construction and execution to operational performance, cash flow generation and returns. Turning to Slide 13 and the Hemi project. Hemi is a high-quality gold project in a Tier 1 jurisdiction with 13.2 million ounces of mineral resources and 5.5 million ounces of ore reserves. State and federal permitting is progressing with secondary approvals required before early works can commence. The managed aquifer recharge trial is underway and progressing to plan.
The current focus is on progressing engineering and design for the processing plant and nonprocess infrastructure, together with more in sequencing and updating of feasibility assumptions. FID is targeted for late FY '27, subject to the required external and internal approvals with an estimated build period of approximately 2.5 years post FID. FY '27 expenditure is, therefore, focused on progressing the project towards FID, while maintaining flexibility around the timing and level of investment.
Turning to Slide 14. Exploration remains an important source of long-term value creation for Northern Star. In FY '26, we continue to grow and upgrade our mineral resource and ore reserve base. We ended 31 March 2026 with 88.9 million ounces of mineral resources and 28.4 million ounces of ore reserves, supporting a reserve-backed production profile of more than 10 years. Resource growth was delivered across the portfolio, with meaningful contributions from Kalgoorlie, Pogo and Hemi. Importantly, we continue to add resources at attractive rates with the cost of resource additions averaging $23 per ounce during the year. Exploration remains a high-value investment in the portfolio extending mine lives, increasing reserve flexibility and creating the future growth opportunities. Each additional reserve ounce strengthens the long-term production profile and increases the value of the existing infrastructure and operating platform.
I'll now hand over to Ryan to complete the final slide of the formal presentation.
Thanks, Steve. Yes. So turning to Slide 15 summarizes the investment case and the key themes shaping the next 3 years for the company. FY '26 represented a significant year of investment and transition for Northern Star, and we -- as we move into FY '27 and beyond, our focus increasingly shifts now towards capturing the benefits of those investments and striving to improve the performance of the portfolio.
Taken together, these elements provide a strong platform for Northern Star over the medium term. The investments made in recent years, particularly at KCGM, have established the foundation for improved operating performance, with a focus now on delivery ramp-up and realizing the returns from that investment. And look, before we go to Q&A, I think I'd just like to say a few words about Stu here, given that his right, this is his final call with Northern Star.
Stu, look, I'd really just like to recognize the remarkable contribution you've made to this company. And on behalf of all of our employees, thank you for the leadership, the vision and commitment you've brought to Northern Star over more than a decade. Under your leadership, Northern Star has grown from a single asset Australian gold producer into a globally recognized gold company, delivering significant value for shareholders.
For me, personally, it's been a privilege to work alongside you. Thank you for your trust, support and friendship. I've learned a great deal from you over the years, and I'm grateful for the opportunity for you. From all of us at Northern Star, we wish you and the family made all the very best for the future.
And on that note, I'd like to hand back to Mel for the Q&A. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] your first question comes from Levi Spry with UBS.
2. Question Answer
Maybe just another question for Steve on the ramp-up at KCGM. So thanks for the extra color. But what are the expectations around when you'll be in a position to update us on the, I guess, the ramp-up further? What do you need to see? And can you remind us how the power requirements or the power point you're building might fit into that?
Thank you for the question, Lee. I just updated where we're at, at the moment. So we're basically within the project running the start-up in terms of the ore commissioning and when we transition in September to handing that to operations, the project team will actually remain in support, but the operations will be in the driver's seat. So at the moment, the operations group is there supporting the project and those roles just reverse. But everything is tracking to plan in Stage 1, and we anticipate the tie over of the Fimiston SAG mill into that circuit to occur in September.
With regard to the power we actually have a good connection, and we also have exclusive rights to the joint venture Parkeston facility, which is a 110-megawatt power station and that combined provides the power to KCGM. Longer term, the building of the thermal power project actually improves the efficiency and modern I guess, rapid power support to the KCGM and that will just transition. Once that is free, are built, Parkeston becomes free and can take on other roles.
Okay. So it's not a constraint on the ramp-up?
Not at all.
Okay. And then just sticking with guidance. When it comes to Jundee, Thunderbox Cosm, what's imputed in today's FY '27 guidance. Is that what they look like going forward or 3 assets, I guess, obviously, the growth capital has rolled off a fair bit at Yandal, even if you back out something for Banker, is that the go-forward plan for all 3 assets?
Thanks, Levi. Look, we'll -- obviously, we haven't and we won't -- and we're not giving out medium-term guidance at this stage. Obviously, we've got a new CEO coming. He will have a view. And I guess we'll go through that as a business, and we plan to come back to the market with medium-term guidance later. So I can't give you beyond FY '27 for now. .
Your next question comes from Hugo Nicolaci with Goldman Sachs.
Again, Stu, congrats on the tenure. Look picking up firstly maybe from Levi's question. Just you've noted in the release that John operational review is complete, and you've incorporated those outcomes into an updated medium-term mine plan. Can you talk us through some of the conclusions that came out of that review and what's actually been incorporated into that future plan? And is FY '27 commentary around production and costs broadly what we should assume going forward out of that?
Thanks, Hugo. Yes. Look, I think -- I mean, I'll start with just saying, I mean, I think we all agree, Jundee's been an incredible asset for NeltonStaff for more than a decade. But you've seen over the sort of near term that we have been facing great decline increasing development to achieve the same profile against a backdrop in the sector, at least of rising costs. So yes, we got around that. We've reduced ultimately the operating model of the footprint to maintain, I guess, a steadier and consistent production profile, focus on the core or zones at Jundee. And we have, I guess, rightsized or reduced equipment and people from the plan to slow down activity and focus on quality.
So what you'll probably see this year, FY '27 is in the back half, we've got to do a little bit of investment, but we're going to see a bit higher grade in that back half. So H1 is a setup half. set up the development to provide those higher ore sources in half 2.
Got it. That's helpful. And then if I turn to Hemi, I believe your federal approval conditions are due to be received today. Is there anything in that process so far that would lead you to think you won't have all your primary and secondary approvals by the end of 2026? And does the $200 million to $250 million CapEx guidance for this year that you've given assume that those early works at site can commence in the second half on the back of that?
Hugo, to answer that question, I guess we don't control the approvals. The approvals will come when the approvals are done by the government. That's tracking to plan as we work at the moment. We're happy with those numbers and approvals are not currently a constraint. -- actually aligned with the Fed. The early works that we talk to are minor matters of things like camps and stuff like that, that we can do whenever we receive approvals at that point in time. So no constraints and tracking to that end of financial year.
Your next question comes from Kate McCutcheon with Bank of America.
Stu, best wishes for the next [indiscernible]. Thanks for your time over the years. Just the KCGM guide for the FY, we've got production expectations in underground, could you just give us some color on the range assumed for the mill throughput and head grade, particularly how to think about how long you're expected to beat the low-grade stockpiles? And then, Ryan, are any of the cost capitalized there? Or are all going to OpEx in time that you know?
Yes. Thanks, Kate. Look, I won't give throughput of what we're expecting because there's a range, obviously. And I think in my commentary, I sort of spoke about how we've I consider that with industry benchmarks with an external assessment with our own views. We've thought about delays in RA. We thought about grade, lower in grade with the -- in relation to the stockpile. So when we've come up with, I guess, the range, all those factors were involved and of course, we've got very early data from our commissioning, which Steve sort of spoke about. So that's what's formed the view there. You see that I've called out our underground outlook in terms of tonnages, that 3.5 million to 4 million tonnes. And then, of course, there's going to be primary ore from the pit feeding it.
So Hopefully, that's enough Kate, to sort of formulate those views. In terms of your question on capital OpEx, yes, so probably as sort of Steve was mentioning, we've obviously started that 3 seek -- C3 commissioning, which is all commissioning now and looking to tie in, in September. So over that period, some of the costs associated with running the plant will be capitalized. And those costs included things like power, water, some reagents, not all reagents, but some reagents and then probably the major cost is operational people as we commission. I'm not expecting that to be a large amount. It might be in the order of $10 million, maybe $15 million maximum, but that's covered in our guidance and our contingencies for FY '27.
Okay. And then can I just come back to June, sorry, I'm just a bit confused here. So we've got the new mine plan .
But we've got flat production year-on-year. So does that mean that we have like a higher margin. It does seem like we have a higher margin, lower production mine plan going forward? Or does that kick in later. I'm just trying to understand what the new maintain and the review means.
Yes. So there's a reduction in primary ore this year, supplemented by low-grade stockpiles. That's the plan this year. There's -- as I said, there's going to be development in this first half to get access to higher grade in the second half. So the focus is going to be on a higher quality -- like lower tonnage, but higher quality ore sources. .
Your next question comes from Daniel Morgan with Barrenjoey.
I guess potentially all quick questions, Stegiven you're leaving and Suresh coming in, in October. But can the team maybe talk about what approach has been taken to put this guidance together, i.e. that the same process as prior years with the same error bars and contingency within? And then secondly, who is accountable for this guidance? Is this where everyone on the ExCo is going to be judged by that?
Thanks, Dan. I'll hand to Ryan. No more quick questions made. It's all good.
Thanks, Dan, for your all good question. Look, really simply, our outlook has been developed through our established budget, operational planning and technical review process, and we -- and it's been informed by demonstrated performance. And in relation to KCGM, as I mentioned in my talk there, it's then being informed by industry benchmarks, so ramp-up curves, an independent assessment of the plant. And then we've rightsized it or we've stress tested it on other factors around slow ramp-up, grade profile. We've looked at delay to our recovery expectation on Stage 2. So we've done all those things. And ultimately, as a management team, yes, we are accountable for.
Okay. On the [indiscernible], you're guiding to 150,000 to 160,000 ounces for FY '27 and then you say Queener and Twin Peaks come in from '28. Does that mean we expect production in FY '28 to just lift a tad from '27 levels because you have those new ore sources coming in. Is that how I should read that?
I think, look, as with all projects down there, they don't start roaring. So it will be a slow buildup. But I think what I'd say is that those 2 projects are there to supplement the ore source feed at Carosue Dam. Tina is a 2 million tonne 3,000-plus underground in close proximity to the mill. So it's going to be a really good little project for us 300,000 ounces. So yes, it's going to be a good additive ore source for Carosue Dam.
And then, Ryan, just sticking on some of these financial things. Just on the ASC on the Asia guidance, sorry, is there a significant noncash charge that comes through for the various stockpiles, particularly KCGM through FY '27. Just wondering obviously, we've got the ACE guidance you've given, but it could be a large margin stockpile charge that's within that, that's noncash. Could you just can unpick that?
Yes, Dan, it's -- yes, it is a good point. And I think it's something that I'm sure quarter will talk to and go ahead does this work. But Really, I'd probably say for KCGM no, I mean, Jundee and CDO yes, because they'll be drawing down, yes, feed, and that will have a noncash cost. So from a margin perspective -- sorry, cash flow perspective, it won't matter. From -- in respect of KCGM, probably what I'm actually expecting is neutral to maybe even a small buildup of inventory. And the reason being is -- and it's going to depend on how ore sources reach the meal and direct tip and how much that goes in. But what I think you'll find is that we will draw down the -- we'll drill down and we've got a 1 million tonne of high-grade material there we'll draw that down, that will have a charge. Costs generally, right, across the business, the sector increasing. So that means our inventory costs are increasing, whether we like it or not with oil, people's costs, capital, all those things. So that will probably sort of negate that. But then probably just to remind everyone, the stockpiles actually carry no cash costs. So they come through free.
They'll have a P&L charge in noncash because we've acquired them. But actually, those stockpiles come through of a 0 cash cost. The reason why we're building up inventory in this current year just gone is because, obviously, we were mill-constrained. So we've had that 1 million-ton on the stockpile. But equally, we're also stockpiling lower-grade material right? So we're building up that balance sheet, whereas now we're going to be obviously drawing it down. But those initial stockpiles that have no cash value.
Your next question comes from Matthew Frydman with MST Financial.
Can I firstly ask about the step-up year-on-year in terms of sustaining capital spend. You've given some of the detail there. on the breakdown across some of the projects. If I look through that, some of those look like one-off sort of capital or maintenance projects there. But I guess, at a high level, to what extent is that run rate of spend in FY '27 kind of now embedded in terms of sustaining capital. If you think about it in sort of a dollar per ounce basis, that's around $550 an ounce. So is that the right number going forward?
Yes. Good question, Matt. I appreciate it. The -- well, first what I'd say is there's contingency in that profile. Yes, there is some -- again, this lumpiness. I remember last year, if you recall, we were talking about mid-life or midlife rebuilds at KCGM. Well, those are around the 20,000 hours now up to the 30,000 hours on some of these equipment. So those tend to come in and out. There's absolutely I'll say, lumpy capital around processing and the things we need to do there. And then, of course, I think the real outlier is this deferred stripping at Bangun -- the reality is, is we've got to bring that into our cost because we're 10% into the ore body, and that's what the rule sort of guide us around to sort of bring them into.
So I'd probably say, like from a Yandal perspective, their actual total cost, if you just look at total cost last year to -- if you look at what we guided actually the same. It's just this bring forward in relation to stripping. But there are some more processing costs in both the Yandal region. And then there's some lumpiness at KCGM. And equally, I'd say, Matt, there's some discretion in some of this capital. I think last year, we guided $750 million. We ended up printing about $650 million. So we are able to prioritize the capital that is required in the business and hold off that that isn't subject to macro performance and business performance.
Yes. Got it. That's helpful. And then I guess in the similar vein, that Slide 11, the breakdown of KCGM there. Obviously, you highlight some ongoing activity in terms of growth capital at some of those projects. Is it fair to again sort of extrapolate that level of activity on those projects? -- beyond sort of FY '27. Is that what you're sort of trying to indicate there? And then conversely, obviously, you've got the new expansion and readiness projects and the mill expansion CapEx itself, presumably rolls off pretty materially into FY '28. Is that fair?
Yes. Yes, Matt. So I guess, it was great to see you out at KCGM. You know how much waste we've got a shift on that southern leg of the pit. So we're guiding 60 million to 65 million tonnes of movement there. So that's going to continue. And our aspiration to get to 8 million tonnes of the underground will continue too. So that's the majority of that investment. So yes, I think it's fair. In relation to the readiness, absolutely, tails were finished this year, project will finish this year. I think there's a very small amount potentially into the '28 year for the thermal, but there's almost -- yes, not much beyond that. .
That's really helpful. And then maybe just lastly, if I look at KCGM production guidance and the outlook for the ramp-up, obviously, you've filled a couple of questions on this. already, and you've talked through how you've really kind of stress tested the numbers there, how you've kind of thought about Airbus in terms of that ramp up, looking at ramp-up curves and so on. I mean if I take a step back, you've got a new mill that's going to be plugged in, in a month's time, which is going to more than double your capacity. And your guidance is that you're going to produce a little bit more this year than last year. So I guess I'm wondering where Steve and his team see the real opportunities to maybe do better than what you're guiding to in terms of the ramp-up. What are the opportunities to kind of beat the expectations there? And what sort of work programs are you trying to implement in the next sort of 3 months to try and do better than those numbers?
Thanks, Matt. Look, I will hand to Steve. But I think what I'd say from my perspective is -- it's you walk through, Matt. It is phenomenal, but it hasn't been demonstrated yet. So I think we're just going to be cautious around that before we set, but I'll hand to Steve to maybe talk to some of it.
In releasing the guidance we've got here, Matthew. We basically have achieved the milestone in all commissioning to date, and that's allowed us -- given us the confidence to release the FY '27 numbers. From there, we want to continue to build history, a data set and then methodically apply that to the future. So we don't wish to speak beyond FY '27. What we've got here is a very prudent assessment, and we'll keep the market updated as we progress.
Okay. Got it. Thanks Stu and congrats on a successful 13 years at Northern Star, Stu.
Your next question comes from Adam Baker with Macquarie.
All the best for the future endeavour, Stu. Just 1 on recoveries at KCGM. Just looking at, I guess, the ramp-up period in where you're predominantly milling the low-grade feed. And I guess prior to the integration of the Gigi facility, can you give us, I guess, a benchmark where we're expecting recovery in this ramp-up period? .
Yes. I can, Matt, to give you some flavor on that. The plant, as is designed gives an uplift of 1% to 2% is what we put over the longer-term average, but that requires Stage 2 to kick in, in that phase. During the interim period, we'll be feeding material to Gigi and also producing a constant rate, and we don't get that uplift in materials. So if you look at our status quo in our history, it's business as usual, and we only get the uplift once we successfully commissioned Stage 2.
So no kind of change to that like 82%, 83% recovery that you have been getting in previous quarters prior to the integration and Gigi facility. And I guess the 1 big change there is the low-grade feed going through the plant. So I'm just -- just wondering if there's an impact to recoveries, just putting lower-grade material predominantly through plant?
Yes, not the numbers you set because that depends on the grade that's fed and the source and the properties. So overall, the number, I'd say, is probably a little bit lower than what you've said there. But it's what we would traditionally expect until we get the improvement from the capital.
Fantastic. And I'm not sure who wants to take this one. But yes, I guess, just on any and Aquifer recharge trials, just looking at EPA recommendations, one of the recommendations is putting the obstructed water back into the Aquifer. Is this a common industry practice? And I guess, do you see any risk with doing this into the future Hemi?
Yes. No, it's a common practice where you basically -- I've actually said very good practice where you are dealing with water in an open pit operation. So we actually take the water. We -- the trial is going very well. We're pumping approximately 7 kilometers out and reinjecting that back into exactly the same aquifer. So -- and then over time, for many years, can return back to the mine. So it's nothing novel unique in what we're doing, but we just need to test the parameters of the actual ore body and flow within the system. .
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Jonathon Sharp with JPMorgan.
Just another question on the KCGM ramp-up. Just trying to understand the quarterly shape of the ramp up. Should we just think that is a smooth ramp-up from Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 or Q1, I know that you're running the old mill for a period of time in parallel. So just some clarity on that would be great.
It will follow normal industry averages. It basically starts rough at the start, gets tuned, gets optimized. We learn how to run it. And over time, and we've said before, it's a 2-year ramp-up we anticipate before we get to the denominator of 27 million tonnes. So if you look at those industry norms, we're not expecting anything different from KCGM.
Okay. Yes, I just note that you're running the old mill for a period in time in parallel. Does that change anything?
Expect what we're doing today is what we've been doing for years. And in September, we change over to the new.
Okay. Second question, just given the external cause for a broader strategic review, has the Board's thinking changed at all around the optimal portfolio of Northern Star how it should look over the next 3 to 5 years?
I mean, no, Jonathon, I mean, we're always evaluating the strategic fit of our assets within the portfolio. So -- and you've seen we've been active there in the past. So nothing has changed. .
There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Ryan for closing remarks.
Thanks for joining us on the call. I appreciate your interest in our company on what is a busy day. Thank you to Stu, and thank you to all of you, and have a great day.
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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Northern Star Resources — 2026 Earnings Call
Northern Star Resources — 2026 Earnings Call
Northern Star schließt FY'26 mit starken Margen und hohem Kapitalbedarf ab; FY'27 fokussiert auf KCGM‑Ramp‑up, hohes CapEx und Fortführung von Dividenden/Buybacks.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Dividend: $0.30 final, $0.55 Gesamt FY'26 (voll frankiert)
- Barmittel: $1,2 Mrd. in Cash und Bullion
- Produktion FY'27: Gruppenleitlinie 1,50–1,65 Mio. Unzen
- KCGM: FY'27 Guidance 550–650k Unzen (Ramp‑up‑Risiko)
- AISC: $3.050–$3.450/oz; Group CapEx $2,6–$2,9 Mrd.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Fokus: Übergang von Investitions‑ zu Ertragsphase – KCGM wechselt von Bau zu Inbetriebnahme und operativer Optimierung
- Kapitalallokation: Beibehaltung von Dividenden und On‑market Buybacks bei Investment‑Grade Bilanz
- Wachstum: Hemi als strategisches Wachstum mit angestrebtem FID Ende FY'27; Exploration weiter als Quelle kostengünstiger Reservezuwächse
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- FY'27 Produktion: 1,50–1,65 Mio. oz; KCGM 550–650k oz, gewichtetes H2
- Kosten & CapEx: AISC $3.050–$3.450/oz; Gesamt‑CapEx $2,6–$2,9 Mrd.; Sustaining ~$850–$915M; Growth $1,5–$1,77 Mrd.
- Sonstiges: Exploration $230–$250M; Depreciation $1.000–$1.200/oz; effektiver Steuersatz 30–32%
- Risiken: KCGM‑Ramp‑up, Stockpile‑Grade‑Variabilität, Stage‑2‑Leistung und Genehmigungen für Hemi
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- KCGM‑Ramp‑up: Häufigstes Thema – Management nennt September‑Tie‑in, Power nicht als Engpass, Quartalsweise Ramp‑up über ~2 Jahre erwartet
- Guidance‑Robustheit: Management verweist auf etablierte Budget‑/Technikprüfungen und externe Benchmarks; mittelfristige Guidance bleibt ausstehend (neuer CEO)
- Asset‑Details: Jundee‑Review reduziert Footprint, Fokus auf H2‑Grades; Hemi‑Genehmigungen laufen, Aquifer‑Recharge‑Trial als Standardpraxis
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Aktie bleibt ein operativ geprägtes Gold‑Investment: hoher Kapitalbedarf in FY'27, aber klare Ertragshebel, falls KCGM planmäßig hochfährt; Hauptrisiko ist der Ramp‑up und projektbedingte Ausführungsrisiken.
Northern Star Resources — Q4 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Northern Star June 2026 quarterly results conference call. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Stuart Tonkin, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for joining us on the call today. With me on call is Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Gurner; Chief Technical Officer, Steve McClare, and acting Chief Operating Officer, Jim Coxon, whilst Simon Jessop is out of country.
I'd like to begin with the most significant highlight for the company in the recent period. The Fimiston expansion project is complete. Commissioning is underway with planned tie-in and ramp-up to follow in the coming months. I can't understate how important this milestone is to the business at this time. And I'd like to acknowledge and thank our people and contracting partners who have completed this project on time and to a very high quality over the past 3 years.
The KCGM as the cornerstone asset of Northern Star now set with production increasing, capital spend decreasing, coupled with a reducing hedge book, all point to significant cash generation in the near term, driving increased shareholder returns.
During the June quarter, we sold 433,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $2,651 an ounce, contributing to annual gold sales of 1.543 million ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $2,698 an ounce. All 3 production centers generated positive net mine cash flow, delivering more than $1.1 billion for the year.
Pleasingly, operational improvements were evident across the portfolio with record mining rates at KCGM, stronger mining performance at Jundee, record quarterly sales Thunderbox and another outstanding cash flow performance from Pago.
At KCGM, we achieved record mining volumes with open pit material movement of 88 million tonnes per annum, and underground mining of 3.2 million tonnes per hour, both demonstrating the caliber of our owner teams and the intensity of activity growing this premium asset. We are looking forward to showcasing this operation this Sunday prior to the Diggers & Dealers conference next week.
The June quarter marked an important milestone for Northern Star with KCGM mill expansion completed and entering commissioning on schedule. This represents the transition from project delivery to operations and is a defining step in positioning this business for the next phase of growth. This is a tremendous achievement by our project team over the last 3 years.
Importantly, our operations team have also safely maintained the aged plant to deliver 10.3 million tonnes in FY '26, and we'll be as pleased as anyone to migrate from this aged and unreliable infrastructure to the new processing facility established for future decades of efficient gold production.
Reaching the commissioning phase of Stage 1 at KCGM gives a significant achievement, and Stage 2 remains on track for completion in the first half of FY '27, creating an integrated processing hub with improved gold recovery and a simpler and cheaper operating model there.
At the remaining Kalgoorlie operations, Carosue Dam transitions to underground mining and processing of stockpiles as open pit activity concludes at Wallbrook. The Kalgoorlie in Kanowna Belle operations consistently deliver and continue to contribute strong cash flow to the group. Yandal delivered stronger production at both Jundee and Thunderbox in the quarter with Jundee now operating at a more optimized mining schedule focused on near-term cash flow generation. And I credit both Northern Star team and Byrnecut on the pace at which they have implemented these changes for the benefit of the operation. Mtpa improved mill throughput at a rate of 6.5 million tonnes per annum and grade uplift from Orelia and Bannockburn delivered 67,000 ounces of gold sold.
Pogo operation closed out the year very strong with June quarter sales of 82,000 ounces, generating mine operating cash flow of USD 177 million in the quarter. Our Alaskan team continues to improve the consistency and quality of this operation. And now with decades of life ahead, Pogo offers significant opportunities to self-fund growth.
At Hemi, the project also continues to progress as planned. We've managed Aquifer Recharge throughout trials commencing during the September quarter and final investment decision remaining targeted for late FY '27.
During the quarter, the company released its annual mineral resource and ore reserve update as at 31st of March. We delivered 26% growth in resources to 88.9 million ounces at an impressive discovery cost of $23 an ounce and delivered a 27% increase in reserves to 28.4 million ounces, underpinning significant mine life. Importantly, our most significant discovery growth is centered on the large scale, low-cost assets of KCGM, Pogo and Hemi.
As we've outlined this morning, we intend to provide FY '27 group guidance together with our FY '26 financial results in August. For KCGM for commissioning during August will provide meaningful operating data from the expanded processing plant, that information will allow us to better assess throughput recovery and plant availability, which will be incorporated into establishing FY '27 guidance.
Overall, we're entering FY '27 from a position of stream. The portfolio continues to generate strong cash flow. We've successfully transitioned KCGM expansion project into commissioning, and we're focused on delivering a safe and disciplined ramp-up of what will become cornerstone processing within our portfolio.
I'd like to thank our 10,000 employees and contractors, who despite the operational challenges faced in FY '26, delivered sector-leading safety performance and further underpin the quality platform that Northern Star is today. You are the true contributors to value creation, keep your sense of humor and thanks very much.
I'll now hand over to Ryan.
Thanks, Stu. Good morning, everyone. As demonstrated in today's results, Northern Star remains in a strong financial position as we enter FY '27. Our portfolio continues to generate significant cash flow while we invest in the next phase of growth across the business.
At 30 June, the company held cash and bullion of $1.2 billion. And importantly, we achieved this while continuing to invest in our growth projects and returning capital to shareholders through our on-market share buyback program with $129 million of shares purchased during the quarter.
In addition, we had $1.75 billion of undrawn corporate facilities available at year-end, providing liquidity and flexibility to support our growth objectives.
Our operating assets continued to perform strongly from a cash generation perspective. For FY '26, all 3 production centers generated positive net line cash flow, contributing approximately $1.2 billion for the year.
As Stu mentioned, Pogo again delivered an outstanding result, generating a record annual net mine cash flow of AUD 609 million, demonstrating the value created through the transformation of the asset over the recent years. The company generated significant cash earnings also during FY '26, and we expect the final figure to be in the range of $2.86 billion to $2.9 billion.
Turning now to the June quarterly cash movements shown on [ chart ]. The business generated underlying free cash flow of $206 million during the quarter, supported by improved operational performance across the portfolio.
As Stu discussed earlier, the key milestone during the quarter was the commencement of the commissioning of Stage 1 at KCGM mill expansion project. Stage 1 of the project ended commissioning on schedule, marking a significant achievement after more than 3 years of engineering, construction and execution. During FY '26, capital expenditure on the project totaled $713 million, while operational readiness expenditure totaled $322 million, as we prepared the operation for expanded throughput rates.
As we move into FY '27, our focus is firmly on safe, disciplined commissioning and ramp-up. The existing processing plant will continue operating through July and August. We tied into the expanded processing facility scheduled for September. Commissioning will follow a measured approach designed to ensure safe, reliable and consistent operating performance before progressively ramping up throughput.
While our immediate priority is a successful commissioning and ramp-up of KCGM, we continue to progress the next stage of growth at Hemi, where we are focused on advancing permitting, engineering and project development activities. During FY '26, expenditure totaled $104 million, with final investment decision anticipated late in FY '27. The project remains an important component of Northern Star's long-term growth strategy.
Exploration also remained a priority with FY '26 expenditure of $278 million, supporting resource growth, as Stu mentioned, and mine life extensions across the portfolio. More broadly, we enter FY '27 with a strong balance sheet, a portfolio generating significant cash flow and a clear pathway to future growth through both KCGM and Hemi.
Thank you. I'll hand back now to Harmony for Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Daniel Morgan from Barrenjoey.
2. Question Answer
Huge milestone with the plant beginning its commissioning. I guess my question is just how does the following few months sort of track conceptually. So gold production, it sounds like it's from the old plant for July, August, when you tie in the new plants. I presume that's going to be a minimal interruption period or plan to be and then you would ramp up using low-grade ores through the first few months to make sure gold doesn't end up in the tailings dam. Is that a fair summation of what you'd expect in the months ahead?
Yes. Thanks, Dan. I'll just let Steve McClare, give you a picture of that.
Yes. Thanks, Daniel. Where we are at the moment is basically we're all commissioning from the primary crusher through to the coarse ore stockpile. So we have that coarse ore stockpile with crushed track on it, and we've been very pleased with the front end of the plant when we're commissioning for the remainder of the plant from the mills right through the tailing thickeners and wet commissioning, and then the tails line post that has already been commissioned and is in full operation. So as we progress, we will work through that work commissioning. We switched to all commissioning early next month when we are comfortable. And once we are on ore commissioning of the low-grade material, we will start to produce gold from that area.
Okay. And whilst prior to Gigi coming on, you're selling gold concentrate or it will be a larger proportion of the sales. Can you just explain to us what impact that has, if anything, on the financials? Obviously, you'd have lower realized revenue. Is that significant or not?
Dan, it's Ryan. Good question. No. So as you would have seen, so we've been selling concentrate material this financial year. So I think in the end, it was totaling that 75,000 ounces in the financial year, about 30% in this quarter. So those sales will continue. So we build up that capacity in our business to do that. So the intention is additional concentrate material once the plant, the new circuit is running well, that additional concentrate material, the access, if you like, will be sold similar to how we're doing it now. Obviously, equally, constructs will be on at Gigi and will still be pouring dollar. So it's more of the same really. It's just that we'll have more concentrate between the time that Gigi comes back to the footprint at Fim, we will be selling some additional concentrate on the market. That's right.
In terms of -- sorry, just in terms of your question on revenue and payability. Payability is excellent, I'll say. So we don't anticipate any derating in revenue or performance on cash flows because we're selling concentrate. They're good commercial terms. So yes, so there's no derate of revenue, if you like, on that front.
And maybe just a conceptual question on the mine of feed expanded capacity at the super pit mill, is there anything you'd call out on how productivity and ramp-up is going? Is there any frustration or any unforeseen any issues accessing golden product?
No, not at all, Dan. You can see by the volumes of the year, 88 million tonne rate for the year of the pit and up 3 million, 3.2 million for the underground growth. So those are ramping very well. I'll remind us that the mill expansion was primarily based on the -- the incremental throughput was based on that 140 million tonne stockholders there. So primary ore will be half of the feed of the new plant, from pits and underground. And then the remaining part of the throughput will come from that low grade stockpile to get that ounce profile. So very pleased with the ramp-ups, very pleased with the commencement of our Northern Star surface mining team, with the new excavated, another one coming in November. The productivities they're getting out of that fleet and the Ivanhoe cutback is outstanding. And again, great to demonstrate the caliber of the team and the efficiency and productivity there getting it super pit. We'll showcase some of that on Sunday. So a lot of the team will see that firsthand.
Your next question comes from Kate McCutchen from Bank of America.
Well done on the commissioning. I just wanted to check, you've noted no medium-term guidance this calendar year for KCGM. Does this mean that we shouldn't rely on the previous targets that were kind of given in August last year? And how do we think about what the mine plan assumes in terms of the mill is coming FY? I appreciate that you just gave us some comments around the feed grade, but any information would be great.
Thanks, Kane. Look, it's important to wait for that complete picture. And I think we've explained we will provide that with the full year accounts in August. So yes, I'd say just watch this space and you'll be provided all of the these details you require in the next few weeks. Again, further the Sunday and next week's presentation will be focused as well on KCGM. That will be important messages from the group on how the ramp up, how we see it, and we're all less feeds and the grades and all that are coming from to deliver that house profile of the coming years.
Okay. So 1 year outlook in August and then medium term a bit later?
Yes. We've spoken in the quarterly to reiterate that, that medium-term guidance might be this calendar year. So expect that broader outlook. We'll be ready when we've got that broader venture and support with the board's outlook over a multiyear near-term guidance for the group.
Okay. And then we haven't spoken about Hemi since the resource update that we had in May. We had that grade growth from 1.5% to 1.2% and it looks like you've changed the clicking methodology down plus the dilution assumptions, I get that there's more tonnes, but you've got less contained gold or net-net less production, I guess, average? Just how do we think about that going forward and upside opportunities?
Yes. Thanks, Kate. Look, it's one piece of the story, and it's resource remained sound with good rigor and review of what that resource was going to be. So same sort of scale and quality. We absolutely put some stronger mining factors on the reserve. But fundamentally, that's not the final plan either. So it's a consideration of a published reserve to bring it on to all the stars books. But ultimately, we did the full feasibility inputs into this asset of everything, including the flow sheet, obviously, CapEx, OpEx and the house profile as we ramp that up. So work is underway with the team to advance that. I appreciate you saw one is the information with the resource reserve update. It was important, we brought that off the degrade declared [ Arida ] on to Northern Star's books which contributes to the -- underpins our overall Arida.
Okay. So more details with the FID before the end of the next FY or this FY.
Yes, which we've said that late FY '27 is the target of the study.
Your next question comes from Levi Spry from UBS.
Looking forward to the site visit on Sunday. Can you just remind us, Steve, how long do you expect the tie-in to take? And then just in terms of when you call out low-grade feed, we're -- I assume that means just the 0.6 on the stockpiles or a little bit lower for the first few months of [ mining ] there?
No, you're right, Levi. Thanks for the question. While we go through that ore commissioning early on, there's a number of checks we have to do. These are big mills. We have warranties, we have guarantees, et cetera. And we go through a stage on/off stepping up and making sure we're comfortable before we proceed. So we don't want to be putting through that choppy period. We don't want to be putting a high-grade material through because recoveries and everything will be a bit up and down through that period, as you would normally expect in the commissioning of this scale. So intent is to stabilize the plant before we start to move off of that lower grade material and feed. And it's really about testing reagents and everything else and a live system and tuning it and getting it stable. The beauty is, at the moment is we continue to make gold through the existing circuit. And when we are comfortable running the new circuit, we can actually then switch in the Fimiston Sag. So that's the front end, primary crusher, Fimiston Sag mill and basically, it's a pipe connection into the new plant. So we do that over a number of days when we're comfortable. And normally, in that period, that will be sometime in early September.
Got it. Yes. And just moving to Jundee. It sounds like you're a bit happy with where things are going. Is there still an operational type review ongoing? Is there a time line for that? What's the sort of last time, I guess, for us. Is it [indiscernible]?
No. So that will be incorporated and articulated in the group guidance that we provide a full year accounts. But I think I said in my opening remarks, we very pleased with the actions in the rapid speed of which Northern Star and Byrnecut adjusted to that in the June quarter, and they're now working under that plan. So pleased with how June's position, and that will be that will be provided with the full year outlook.
Your next question comes from Hugo Nicolaci from Goldman Sachs.
But maybe just picking up on the question on the outlook. Look, obviously, I appreciate not wanting to give KCGM just given the scale of that project and some of the near-term uncertainties, but you're able to provide some directional commentary at least across the broader portfolio in terms of production and maybe the moving pieces into next year?
No, not, Hugo. So we'll provide all that together with the full year accounts. And it's important that decisions related to KCGM do knock on to decisions with the other operations. So yes, you've isolated and said, look, knowledge around KCGM are ramp-up and performance is one element, but how we allocate our resources across the group focus, start new stuff there is a contagion kind of knock-on effect in our overall risk profile in that regard. So the two go hand-in-hand. We can't just isolate the non-KCGM assets and give us some color on that today.
Yes. Fair enough. I thought I'd try anyway. Maybe just on Hemi then, obviously, the FID to late FY '27. Can you just talk us through what that critical path is looking like at the moment and the driver of that time line? Is it still federal permitting, native title, is engineering maybe taking a little bit longer or maybe it's sort of timing around the procurement pieces and the time lines you've been given there? Just any extra color would be helpful.
I'll just let Jim give you a progress up there on Hemi.
The project is developing really well. We're still continuing with the permitting both federal and state. So that's progressing very well. We're working really well with the Guerrera RNTPC to work with them about getting on country and work with them around the managed Aquifer Recharge trial. So that's going to happen September quarter. So things really progressing as planned for now. And obviously, as we talked about, the FID is in late FY '27. So all progressing pretty well at this stage.
Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just last one for Ryan on the hedging piece. You've obviously historically talked to letting the hedge book run its course, but gold price has pulled back. Does that potentially create an opportunity to maybe close out some of the small hedges in FY '28 and bring forward that cash flow inflection. So have you closed out your FY '28 hedges, you'd be less than 12 months away from that free cash flow inflection and the potential re-rate some of your smaller peers have seen?
Thanks, Hugo. Yes. Look, we have considered it. And I think the beauty is we can continually consider it. I'd probably be more inclined to bring forward the nearer-term ones rather than the ones out because the closer we are to understanding price discovery right now. The near-term ones, you can get some certainty that the price is going to hurt you up or down, obviously. So look, we do talk about it. We've got our share buyback on to. So I think it's just a balance between those decisions on the additional free cash made, Hugo. Yes.
Your next question comes from Adam Baker from Macquarie.
Just 1 one the underground at KCGM. I mean it's been running pretty consistently around that 3.2 million tonne per annum run rate. And it's probably clearly not a bottleneck now with the mill expansion. But I guess looking further afield into the 2 years with 27 million tonnes per annum run rate, you've got the 5 years some stockpiles worth of feed at 153 million tonne. Like my question is, I guess, what are we looking at for the ramp-up of the underground here? Have we still got an aspirational goal in mind to ramp that underground up and therefore, provide the mill feed once we're at that 27 million tonnes in run rate?
Yes. Thanks, Adam. So we should -- we've got historic and a ramp up to this -- half this is 7 million tonne per annum plant is from stockpile. And we said foundation, 12 million, 30 million tonnes of the existing plant would have been primary ore. That's why we've justified expanding the plant. The blend of whether that's open pit or underground. We've kind of always targeted a growth between 12 million tonnes or so from primary ore. And whether that's four from underground and 8 from open pit or 8 from underground and 4 from open pit, trying to match those 2 ramp-ups as 1 winds down. And then the remainder of the feed comes from the low-grade stockpile. So yes, year-on-year-on-year, we're growing that underground. If you remember, when we acquired KCGM that only had 1 million tonnes coming from the underground or less than 1 million tonnes coming from our Charlotte. We've got that over 3.2 million. We're still developing significant meters there to open up these new production fronts. And ultimately, it will be more underground feed than open pit feed in the next sort of 5 to 10 years, that's the approach and plan. So yes, that will come into the outlook, the broader outlook, but those volumes will grow, and that's what we're investing in that front-end development to achieve at the moment.
Okay. And this 1 for the timing on the [indiscernible] thanks the call out on [indiscernible], $200 million, $250 million. Is there a timing on that?
Adam, it's hard because we don't set the clock and the progress on it. We still think this half, perhaps late this half. But again, with no conviction because it's out of our hands around the timing.
Your next question comes from Jonathan Sharp from JPMorgan.
Just digging in a little bit more from Levi's question, just the tie-in. How should we think about that, the timing and the risk there?
Yes. So Steve, just articulate, it stays for the time, and you've got the current plant operating throughout and then it stays like a normal shutdown to swing the pipe across and title in. So you're not having a massive hiatus of downtime across the whole operation. You've got 2 plants operating and then you basically tie in and you're back to the primary plant. The important aspects there on gold production is that there's rock going through at the moment with our goal. There will be rock with limited gold, and then there'll be a ramp-up phase through September quarter. So across the whole group, as we always do, September quarter is a soft quarter because of the planned shutdowns across all of our operations to do those relines. And then you've got the magnification of KCGM, basically being fed on low grade and ramping through that commissioning phase. So they all affect the throughput and the gold production for September quarter. It will be the softest quarter for the year. And fundamentally, people would need to understand and prepare for that and it ramps up from that point. So yes, the tie in itself, it's not weeks and months, it shifts and days. And then that just moves away from the construction commissioning risk and starts to really allow us to refine and optimize the part.
Okay. And just maybe digging into the grade. I don't know how much detail you can give us there sounds like 0.6, but will it ramp up? Or -- and will it be for the full first half just maybe some more detail there would be great.
Yes. So the detail will have to come with the full year guidance. But I guess what we're explaining to people was how we commission a plant, you don't want to be throw and gold at the back. So while we're trying to get stability and mechanical things operating with an rock through and getting all those things, the flows and everything, the density is all those things right without the concern of the metallurgical recovery of the most valuable product we're mining. So that's sensible. That's wherever our commissions a plan. As we get comfort that those are stable, we start to introduce some of the low-grade feeds. And then fundamentally, we start to move to the primary blend. In the meantime, the existing plant is operating. So it's the existing Fimiston and Charlotte circuits are operating. And last year, they just achieved 10.2 million tonnes. But that's operating. In parallel, this ramp-up and commissioning is occurring. And at the right time, when Steve and the team are confident they'll tie it in. You can always undo it later, but our intention is we're confident we tie it in, then we start to bring the primary feed and start to produce gold bars from that plant. And it will be better than the old plant, and it will improve and improve and improve by weeks and months and quarters.
Your next question comes from Ben Lyons from Jarden Securities.
Acknowledging once again that you haven't issued guidance for KCGM, but you'll have a number of people on site this Sunday, and I'm sure you've had a chance to prepare the materials ahead of the visit. But obviously, not everybody on the call will be able to make it out to call I'm just interested in what are the key messages that you're intending to convey at site this week and next year?
I'll offer to Steve who's going to do the presentation as well for Diggers.
Yes. What we're going to see, Kelly's a plant in active commissioning, Ben. So in terms of you've just heard in terms of the underground feed and everything in the underground will work its way up to being 1 of 4 ore sources and that ore sourcing derisks the site. So we'll see the mill tour. You'll see the open pit, you'll see the underground and how it all fits together and this is all part of the journey of a new, simpler, cheaper processing plant has lower electricity inputs in time and it basically has multiple sources of ore and derisking. And so going away from any event in the open pit stopping us, we start to move into that future phase of funnel robust production. In terms of the infrastructure, what you actually see is our tailings dams have been part of this build as well and something we don't often speak of, but that's fully permitted, license ready to go and Fimiston 3 and that gives us a diversity of sources as well as the existing dams, et cetera. You won't see much on terms of other stuff in terms of the renewables, power stations, stuff like that, but they are in the very final stages, and we're going into that in this financial year. From other areas, I think you would be very surprised with this performance in the southern end of the pit and a lot of movement up there. We're really starting to work that material, work those longer-term plans. So very encouraging.
Okay. So I guess just tying back to Adam Baker's earlier question about the underground ramp-up, it sounds like we're probably stepping away from that aspirational 8 million tonne underground, which was always going to be a huge concept and I think we previously talked to about a 500,000 tonne annual sort of step up on the journey to get to that level of underground or extraction?
No, if anything I reinforce that, that is the plan is 12 million primary tonnes, whether it's far from the underground and from the pit in the near term, it will move towards 8 some the underground and force in the pit and the remaining fill for the mill will come from a large low-grade stockpile that is over 3 million ounces in stockpile. So absolutely the future of this asset for decades to come is a large -- multiple large underground sources. So no, we've not stepped away from that whatsoever.
Okay. Cool. Maybe my second question is just on the approach from the high-profile activist investor, I guess you've had some time to reflect upon that campaign. Now, and I assume there's been some direct engagement there. But just wondering, again, at a high level, whether it's had any material influence on the business strategy and your thoughts around portfolio optimization.
Thanks, Ben. Thanks for the question. Look, yes, I mean, the board's engaged Elliott and continues to engage it constructively, just like all of our shareholders. but that's a matter for the Board, not management. So we don't really have any further comments to make on the matter this morning.
Your next question comes from David Radclyffe from Global Mining Research.
I just wanted to follow up on the hedging comments because I think we're sort of scratching our heads a bit here. and especially the comment that is progressing to schedule. How does that square that it just keeps appear to be slipping. So perhaps answer it another way. My understanding was that was circa 6 months of engineering ahead of the project and then a 2.5-year build. So when we hopefully get to FID late '27. How much of that engineering is likely to be left? And on your current plans, do you still see it as a 2 to 2.5-year build?
Yes. Thanks, David. So I guess there's parts that are out of our control, including the approvals. I guess they are progressing. There's no showstoppers in that, but it is the process we need to go through. And largely, those things are out of our control. Jim highlighted, we're very pleased with engagements and progress we're making on this water injection trial and the relationship with Garate and the cooperation there. really, this engineering period is to advance it to much higher accuracy to ensure that the Board can make Fed by the end of FY '27 with the really detailed accuracy on it. So all of that engineering carries ahead, you'll see the expenditure that's been occurring to date and will continue is for the aim of narrowing in what that flow sheet is, what the engineering costs are going to be and the commitments to enable our Board to make an educated informed returns-based decision on FID. So all of those things would normally happen. We're utilizing the time effectively to get that accuracy. Some of this delay is really outside of the control of the company, and we're in the process of the approvals train.
Okay. So most of the engineering will be completed or expected by FID. So then we should go back to that previous sort of rough guidance that at FID, it could be circa 2.5 years. Is that reasonable?
If it's the same build flow sheet accurately to gold bars from that point. We may actually be advanced on some of the timing of the 2.5 years that had some of the engineering continuing, but it should not be longer.
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Kate McCutcheon from Bank of America.
Sorry, I'm on mute again. Maybe a question for Ryan. Just on the CapEx for June quarter. It was probably $100 million consensus expectations for the quarter. Is there anything to call out there or anything that we should think about as being a catch-up to next year or anything that timing fits?
Thanks, Kate. Are you -- so you're talking about sustaining capital just generally or...
Sorry, the growth of CapEx.
The growth CapEx.
So that circa $577 million [indiscernible] get to $600 million.
Yes. So obviously, we've -- it's related to probably the mill expansion and all the readiness stuff. So there's probably a bit of activity there. from a just CapEx perspective, generally, if you took it sustaining. There's some additional capital done at Hoger because it's summer and they can do the things they need to do. And there probably is a bit of a catch-up from a full year perspective, you could say. We're still obviously looking across on the tables there on page, I think it's free. You can see we're under for the across the board on CapEx for the full year, both growth and sustaining, which if you can recall, we originally guided at that $750 million amount. So we have had discretion on capital this year, as you been a challenging year. So we've been -- yes, we've been screed there. But there probably is a bit of a catch-up in that in the final part of the year probably good lands.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Tonkin for closing remarks.
Thank you, Harmony. So yes, been presenting Northern Star now for 50 quarters, and thanks for joining us on the call. We look forward to speaking to you again when we reported our full year results next month. Thanks for joining us. Cheers.
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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Northern Star Resources — Q4 2026 Earnings Call
KCGM-Mill-Expansion fertiggestellt; Commissioning läuft, starker Cashflow und Ressourcenwachstum – FY'27-Guidance kommt im August.
Management fokussiert sicheren, disziplinierten Ramp‑up, Kapitalrückflüsse und Final Investment Decision (FID) für Hemi Ende FY'27.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Quartalsverkäufe: 433.000 Unzen Gold im Juni‑Quartal
- Jahresverkäufe: 1,543 Mio. Unzen für FY'26
- AISC (Quartal): All‑in sustaining cost (AISC) $2.651/Unze; FY'26 AISC $2.698/Unze
- Cashflow: Underlying Free Cash Flow $206 Mio. im Quartal; >$1,1 Mrd. Nettomine‑Cashflow im Jahr
- Bilanz: Kasse & Barren $1,2 Mrd.; ungezogene Kreditlinien $1,75 Mrd.; Buyback $129 Mio. in Q
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- KCGM‑Projekt: Fimiston‑Mill‑Erweiterung abgeschlossen und in Commissioning; Stage‑2 auf Kurs für H1 FY'27
- Cash‑Priorität: Reduzierte Hedging‑Position, sinkende CapEx am KCGM, starke Cash‑Generierung zur Finanzierung Buybacks und Aktionärsrenditen
- Wachstum & Ressourcen: Ressourcen +26 auf 88,9 Mio. Unzen; Reserven +27 auf 28,4 Mio. Unzen; Discovery‑Cost $23/Unze
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- FY'27‑Guidance: Vollständige FY'27‑Guidance zusammen mit FY'26‑Ergebnissen im August
- Ramp‑up‑Plan: Tie‑in geplant für ~September; vorläufiger Betrieb mit niedrigerem Gebot (Low‑grade) während Stabilisierung; Sep‑Quartal wird voraussichtlich das softeste Quartal
- Hemi‑Timing: FID für Hemi weiterhin angestrebt für Ende FY'27; Permitting und Managed Aquifer Recharge‑Trials im Fokus
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Commissioning‑Risiken: Tie‑in‑Timing und Übergang vom alten zum neuen Plant; Management erwartet Tage statt Wochen Ausfall, Ramp‑up schrittweise mit Low‑grade‑Feed
- Guidance‑Erwartung: Analysten drängten auf FY'27‑ und mittelfristige Zahlen; Management verweist auf August‑Reporting und bevorstehende Site‑Präsentationen
- Hedging & Portfolio: Diskussion über mögliches Vorziehen von Hedge‑Schließungen; Board prüft Balance zwischen Cash‑Sicherheit und früherer Preisexponierung
⚡ Bottom Line
Kurzfristig sorgt die KCGM‑Commissioning‑Phase für ein weiches September‑Quartal, mittelfristig aber für deutlich mehr Cash und Kapazität. Starke Bilanz und Ressourcenbasis reduzieren finanzielle Risiken; Aktie wird von Fortschritt beim Ramp‑up, Hemi‑FID und Hedging‑Entscheidungen abhängen. Guidance im August ist der nächste Trigger.
Northern Star Resources — Q3 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Northern Star March 2026 Quarterly Results. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Stuart Tonkin, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. With me on the call is Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Gurner; and Chief Operating Officer, Simon Jessop.
As previously announced, in the March quarter, gold sold totaled 381,000 ounces. And today, we announced the delivery of those ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of AUD 2,709 per ounce. This improved operational performance exiting the quarter has delivered high-margin ounces to generate group underlying free cash flow of $301 million. More specifically, we are prioritizing cash flow at KCGM by accelerating volumes from the high-grade Golden Pike zone during current mill constraints. At Jundee, the operational review is underway, and across Thunderbox and Pogo, we've seen gold grades improve. With this improved performance and high-grade ROM stockpiles at KCGM, the company is forecast to deliver its revised FY '26 production guidance of above 1.5 million ounces.
As previously disclosed, this outlook remains particularly dependent on mill throughput at KCGM with both downside and upside potential. Total growth capital expenditure for FY '26 remains unchanged with revisions to the KCGM mill expansion project and operational readiness CapEx. The KCGM mill expansion project remains on track for commissioning in early FY '27. And pleasingly, the project started transitioning from construction to the completions and commissioning during the March quarter, which is marking the next stage of project delivery.
Due to ongoing poor productivity levels for construction activity, we prioritize the importance to keep the project on track, and therefore, forecast capital spend increased to $680 million to $700 million in FY '26 and $160 million in FY '27. The increased capital expenditure during FY '26 for the mill expansion has been offset by a reduction in the forecast spend for operational readiness related to delay in the spend of the thermal power plant and transmission infrastructure. You will see in the quarterly report, we've also introduced some extra detail regarding Stage 1 and Stage 2 for on-site construction. Stage 1 refers to the construction of the 27 million tonne per annum plant. Stage 2 refers to the consolidation of the Gidji facility, which simplifies the processing footprint to a single location in Fimiston, which supports longer-term operating efficiency and cost structure benefits.
At Hemi, our team continues to optimize the engineering and design of the project while advancing approvals. So our balance sheet remains in a net cash position, and our hedge book -- as our hedge book decreases, our growing exposure to spot gold price, coupled with increasing production, positions us for a strong increase in cash flows going forward.
I'd now like to hand over to Simon Jessop, our Chief Operating Officer, to discuss our operational highlights.
Thank you, Stu, and good morning. This quarter, we delivered a solid operational financial performance with improving production, stronger cost control and continued investment in the long-term growth across our portfolio. At the Kalgoorlie production center, we sold 210,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $2,550 an ounce, improving on the December quarter. This was driven by stronger cost efficiency at KCGM and a return to normalized performance at the Kalgoorlie operations.
Mine operating cash flow was $588 million, generating a net mine cash flow of $156 million after $432 million of growth capital, reflecting both asset strength and continued investment. KCGM sold 117,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $2,485 an ounce, supported by higher grades and optimizing the available mill feed. Importantly, mining volumes continue to trend towards our annual targets. Open pit material movement is tracking towards 90 million tonnes and underground production towards 3 million tonnes per annum. Ongoing waste stripping is supporting this progress. At the same time, productivity gains are allowing us to accelerate mining in the high-grade zones, prioritizing margin and cash flow, particularly while the mill throughput remains constrained.
At Carosue Dam, open pit mining is expected to conclude in the June quarter with production transitioning to underground sources and stockpiles. At the Kalgoorlie operations, performance improved with higher grades and the normalization of underground mining following the earlier H1 disruptions.
Turning to our Yandal production center. Performance also strengthened. Gold sales increased to 105,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $3,347 an ounce with a mine operating cash flow of $177 million and net mine cash flow of $91 million after growth capital. At Jundee, an operational review is underway to reduce costs and improve consistency. During the quarter, we returned to conventional ore processing following the remediation works while a completed power upgrade is expected to support improved mining volumes and grades in the June quarter. At Thunderbox, production was particularly strong, with gold sales plus 26% quarter-on-quarter to 59,000 ounces driven by higher grade ore, initial open pit contributions and improved mill recovery.
Turning to Pogo, we saw a step change in performance. Gold sales increased to 66,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of USD 1,529 an ounce, driven by higher grades from optimized stoping in the mining areas. This translated into a mine operating cash flow of USD 136 million and a net mine cash flow of USD 124 million, highlighting the strength of this asset as a cash generator. Operations continue to perform strongly with the mine and mill running at an annualized rate of 1.4 million tonnes per annum.
Development activity remains robust, establishing new mining fronts and advancing infrastructure to unlock future production, including access to the Star ore body, supporting both growth and potential mine life extension.
In summary, the March quarter reflects a business delivering improved operational performance, disciplined cost management and positioning itself for stronger, more sustainable returns.
I would now like to pass over to Ryan, our Chief Financial Officer, to discuss the financials.
Thanks, Simon. Good morning, everyone. Northern Star remains in a great financial position. Our balance sheet remains strong with cash and bullion of $1.2 billion at 31 March. Pleasingly, all 3 production centers generated positive free cash flow in the quarter with capital expenditure and exploration fully funded. Quarterly net mine cash flow was $426 million. Figure 8 on Page 10 sets out the company's cash and bullion movements for the quarter with key elements being the company generating just over $1 billion of post-tax operating cash flows, a 180% increase on the prior quarter. After deducting capital of $618 million relating to the KCGM expansion, plant and equipment and mine development, $48 million of exploration and $66 million of lease payments, quarterly free cash generation was $301 million.
Also during the quarter, the company received $50 million in proceeds from the divestment of the Central Tanami Gold project and paid an interim dividend of $0.25 per share, totaling $347 million. Stuart has already discussed the revisions to FY '26 growth capital expenditure forecast, particularly KCGM. But in respect of the other investment activities, our exploration expenditure is tracking to plan, with guidance of $225 million for the full year unchanged. And at Hemi, we continue to work closely with key stakeholders and regulators to advance the project including approvals and progress on the engineering and design works and procurement of long lead items.
On other financial matters, the Board has recently approved an on-market share buyback program of up to $500 million, supported by the company's strong outlook and value opportunity. The buyback will be subject to the company's security trading policy, including blackout periods, and will not affect the company's dividend policy to pay out 20% to 30% of cash earnings. From a cash tax perspective, we are guiding the second half of FY '26 range to be $240 million to $280 million, with $37 million already paid in Q3. No changes to our estimate quantum or timing for landholder duty for the De Grey and Saracen transactions, both likely to be paid during FY '27. The company is not experiencing any supply restrictions on fuel, and we continue to engage with our suppliers on this matter frequently.
Q4 all-in sustaining costs are expected to be $75 to $85 per ounce higher as a result of increased oil prices. Year-to-date depreciation and amortization of $1,015 per ounce sold is just above the top end of the guided range of $875 to $975 per ounce and is expected to track modestly above the top end of the guided range for the full year. For the quarter, noncash inventory charges for the group are a credit of $46 million, primarily from increases in stockpiles at KCGM. During the quarter, the company refinanced and upsized its corporate bank facilities with maturity dates of March 2030 and March 2031 across 2 equal tranches totaling $1.75 billion. These facilities remain undrawn and available at quarter end.
Also a reminder that the company will pay interest on its senior guaranteed notes in Q4, which will amount to USD 18 million. The company continues to unwind its hedging commitments with 165,000 ounces delivered during the quarter. At 31 March, commitments totaled 950,000 ounces at an average price of just over AUD 3,350 per ounce.
I will now hand back to Ashley to begin the Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] Your first question today comes from Hugo Nicolaci with Goldman Sachs. We will move on. Your next question comes from Levi Spry with UBS.
2. Question Answer
Maybe just a little bit more detail on the 2 key growth projects, KCGM and Hemi. So can you just talk us through the delay in capital into next year, how that ties in with the potential ramp up through, I guess, second half of this calendar year?
Yes. Thanks, Levi. So there's -- on the actual expansion project, there's an increase in the overall capital and it's pretty much spread this financial year, next financial year. So you'll see those lifts in FY '26, FY '27 in regard to the expansion, about $60 million, $30 million in FY '26, FY '27, $30 million. That's due to the productivities. We're just getting poor productivities, got a lot of labor there. But it's very important to us to keep the timing of the completion in line, and that's why we've been jammed, but prepared to keep that labor there to complete that project.
The delay of the spend is the thermal -- the new thermal power station infrastructure pending approvals. We're following with power because we own the Parkeston joint venture power station there, plus we are grid-connected. So they're not issues, but that's just delayed capital. And in FY '26, there's no net change, but there's certainly that uplift of the overall project due to these poor productivities.
Yes. Okay. I guess I'm just trying to drill down a little bit more on your retaining the 23 million tonnes as a guidance number effectively for next year given that the capital has moved a bit. So is there anything more you can add on that?
No. So we will provide the full year guidance with the quarterly, which we typically do in July, on the June quarter. So that will give the outlook for everything for the full year for FY '27 and equally, the overall ounces throughput for KCGM sources, et cetera. So yes, quarter, we're on track for completion and commissioning of the plant in the September quarter. It obviously moves from the old plant to the new plant and then has a ramp-up, and that will relate to how we achieve the full year on that.
Got it. Okay. And then just is there -- can you give us a little bit more detail on the progress at Hemi as you move towards FID there sometime next financial year?
Yes. So really, it's still depending on environmental approvals. We're working closely on the water trial progress, which would be this quarter. So working on that progress...
Just need silence on the back of some of those calls, people who need to go to mute. The -- yes, sorry, on Hemi. So the approval is still pending with environmental. It's tracking okay. There's no real curveballs in it, but we're certainly -- it's been delayed from where we predicted, and that's why we pushed the timing of FID out. But yes, we -- I think the other part with FID, we're going to have to be very dependent on the refreshed pricing and with the current backdrop of cost escalations some real comfort with learnings from KCGM, et cetera, productivity levels in labor and the escalation costs around any hydrocarbon-based plastics, fuel, tires, freight. We've got to be really certain on FID there. So I think we'll be very conservative in our view on that.
Your next question comes from Daniel Morgan with Barrenjoey.
Just on the super pit, I mean, you've explicitly given more detail on splitting the project ramp up in the Stage 1 and Stage 2. I'm just wondering what are you trying to -- the message you're trying to get to the market here is it the throughput will face a lot of disruptions to factor that in from tie-ins? Is it cost realized pricing from selling concentrate, not gold dore for a period of time. And I know that throughput is 23 million tonnes on Page 4. Has this been updated at all in light of latest thoughts of delivery? And does it include the disruption at Gidji that you're talking about?
Thanks, Daniel. Look, the 23 million tonne hasn't been updated, and we'll revisit that with the full year guidance that we'll provide in July. So we need to consider everything at that point on the stage at which we've turned on the plant. What we're trying to communicate with the division of Stage 1 and Stage 2, it would not make sense or sound odd if we were continuing to spend money in FY '27 on this project yet have it running. So we're trying to be really clear that Stage 1 is the 27 million tonne per annum plant operating and that's for commissioning. That's built in that way and will be commissioned and ramped up in the September quarter.
Continuing on in parallel and subsequent to that, not affecting throughput or impact is stage 2. It's effectively all of the ultrafine grinding activity occurring for 100% of that 27 million tonne per annum capacity at the Fimiston location. So people just -- I think maybe that granularity wasn't there. Right now, the concentrates go 20 kilometers north to Gidji from the current plant, get ultrafine ground and then brought back and treated and turned into gold dore at Fimiston. So all of that, the part of the efficiency is productivity to bring all that activity, which was explained in the FID and explained in the overall project approval. It's all occurring on the 1 side. The original pricing included those 2 things, but the design of the activity Stage 1, Stage 2 is there.
The other highlight that we'll talk to is in half 1 of FY '27, we will be selling concentrates, continuing to sell concentrates, which is fine and the economics of it are sound. So that's not an issue, but we are just letting people know that until that second stage is complete and can take 100% of the concentrates generated, there will be some of the concentrates go to Gidji and some go in sales, which we've been doing. They go out through ports and going to smelters, and we've got good payability terms on that.
Yes. Just moving to Carosue Dam. I see that you've just called out that open pit mining is ceasing. Any plans for higher underground production? Or what are current thoughts on the longevity of underground mining?
Yes. Thanks, Daniel. It's Simon. So we're still continuing with the underground mines that we've got. So Karari, Dervish is looking better at depth, and we're getting some drill hole hits at Dervish, but porphyry and million. That's the four undergrounds that we're running at the moment. Our sort of next phase is really looking at Twin Peaks and Kiena as the underground operation. So we're just moving into that phase of more underground as some of them wind off over the next couple of years. We then transition to those other underground operations coming in. There will be some open pits further into the future, but not at the moment.
And just on, I guess, a broader question of, I think you're conducting operational reviews across the business. Obviously, you've got Jundee...
Sorry, Daniel, I think, you dropped out there.
Sorry, can you hear me?
We can now.
We can now, yes.
My last question is just you're doing operational reviews, I imagine across the business, including Jundee and others. What is the latest plan on providing the outcome of these? Earlier you had said by the end of the year, is there any update to that time?
Yes. Thanks, Daniel. No, we will stick to the timing of -- we'll provide that medium-term guidance, which is a multiyear outlook, and we'll provide that this calendar year. We will provide the FY '27 guidance with the quarterly for the June quarterly, so in July.
Your next question comes from Matthew Frydman with MST Financial.
Can I firstly just dig into a little bit more detail on that staging of the expansion. And I understand the detail you've given in terms of the mechanics of Stage 1 versus Stage 2 moving the ultrafine grind down to Fimiston. But I guess just wondering, is this timing or staging approach, has this always been the plan? Or has this really been an outcome or has it been driven by the productivity issues that you faced in terms of bringing 1 part of the process on a little bit later than the rest?
Yes. Thanks, Matt. Look, the staging and the way the contracts form with the contractor has always been separable portion 1, separable portion 2, always and their contract structure is different. So they were designed, engineered, sequenced exactly like that, and that's how the FID was approved, and that's how the total number contemplated this we've contingencies on both those projects. As they've transpired separable portion 1, which is that 27 million tonne per annum plant. That's on track with the timing, but it's overspent because of the productivity is, and we're still working very hard for those final commissioning to be commenced and switched over from the old plant to that new plant in the September quarter, early in the September quarter is our current design and plant and ramping up throughout.
Separable portion 2, the ultrafine grinding activity is another 4 to 6 months of activity. So the team moves from step first to the second, stay inside and get that completed. So that was always understood to be the case, and we don't get the recovery improvement of the overall project, and we had said that on the onset until all of that activity and that volume of concentrate gets done. So we're saying expect that through half 1, which will be material going to Gidji and the lower recovery in half 2 of FY '27, and we've got Stage 2 all commissioned and all the concentrates staying there, improved recovery, lower operating costs and all of the activity staying on the site. That's the final piece of the improvement for the investment project.
And Matt, just to add to that. So Separable Portion 1 is over 95% complete today. And the second portion that Stu was talking about is already 48% complete. So they're happening in parallel. It's just the priority. 27 million tonne case is the focus to get first ore into the mill and start producing gold. And the second stage is just under 50% complete at the moment. So that's just trails and gets finished in H1.
Understand. And then secondly, on the power plant, you said that you're comfortable there, given that, obviously, or got your own plant and also a grid connection, but obviously, we know that the grid stability in Kalgoorlie has been an issue recently. So I guess just wondering when exactly is the new power plant needed to support the from the bigger mill. And I guess, how do you see those stability issues potentially impacting or potentially not impacting.
Yes. So we won't -- we'll have access to the grid and the 50-odd meg of power from it. We won't be reliant on it. In the first instance, Parkeston is the foundation supply for the new plant and then the move to the newer thermal plant. It can occur within today 18 months, 2 years, and it improves the overall unit cost of the power and final piece of that is the renewables project that has been approved. So the wind and solar. So really that thermal is just the firming power for that renewables project and that's another step change in the cost structure for the site. So yes, step 1 is we're in 50% joint venture of Parkeston Power, which underpins the expanded sort of mill demand.
We are building a new thermal power station subject to those approvals timing and then the renewables that sits on the back of that, which is a third-party's balance sheet. We've got some switching gear we own. Fundamentally, that comes in within a couple of years to start really driving the power costs down, and we will be in control of our own power security, not dependent on the grid. And if anything, we're out there to support the Goldfields grid in Western Power. We've got some arrangements we're progressing quite positively with the state to assist the Northern Star and assist the gold fields in underpinning that power.
Okay. I mean, maybe to put it another way, can you achieve 22 million tonnes without the support of the Kalgoorlie grid in FY '27?
Yes. And it will be running at times, it will be running a full 27 million tonne per annum capacity. So full demand. We've got over 100 meg capacity at Parkeston. So 99 meg derated with temperature, and we got 52 meg from the grid well in surplus of the demands of the mine and the mill expanded case.
Okay. That's pretty clear. And then maybe just lastly on the Jundee technical review. You've talked about considering a range of outcomes there. And obviously, you said you're going to give more detailed guidance a little bit down the track. But maybe just conceptually, can you book in the sort of range of options that you're considering in that study? I mean if I think hypothetically may be a conservative outcome or a conservative option might be at Jundee that you just mine out the remaining reserves and then kind of ramp down the reinvestment in that asset. That might be a conservative kind of view? Or should I actually be thinking even more conservatively than that conceptually could there be a reduction in the current reserves, given the increase in the cost structure or some of those other factors?
I think it's too early to give that granularity. But the concepts are -- the costs are high. And our aim is to cut absolute costs out of the site and then see the maximum output we can get through the current infrastructure that's there. So it means a reduction in intensity of activity to get the lower unit costs. If anything, that will extend at a lower profile can extend the reserve life that's there. And as far as that investment, again, has to be ranked and prioritized against the other opportunities we have in the business. As you appreciate now, there is a lot of intensity around a number of jumbos developing number of stopes carrying a number of diamond drill rigs doing discovery to come in depletion. So taking a bit of that pace out will actually enable a bit more time with the overall asset to focus on quality over quantity.
Your next question comes from Kate McCutcheon with Bank of America.
I got the company right this morning. I wanted to ask about the buyback. So we had that announced the $500 million circa 1% of your market cap. Just talk me through how you think about buying back your stock here versus investing that in organic growth, et cetera?
Kate, it's Ryan. Look, I think right now, it's -- yes, some of the most accretive capital allocation we can put back into this business. We see a strong outlook ahead. We're close to turning on our new mill. We're going to see cash flows live significantly there. So we see strength ahead and we see value in our underlying business.
Okay. And while I've got you, Ryan, I think the tax cash saving numbers you gave us are new. Is it fair to think about that magnitude being less than P&L tax for '27 and '28 that you gave us on the tax shield? And secondly, did you say next quarter's asset is expected to be $75 to $85 an ounce higher as a result of oil prices? Or did I mishear what those comments were?
No. So I'll start with that for the last question first, yes. Yes. So $75 to $85 an ounce higher is our sort of estimate. Obviously, oil is volatile, but that's our best view of the impacts this quarter. And then on the tax shield, which I think you're referring to Hemi, I guess we added some more commentary at the back there on Page 10, but it's really just again reminding people of some of the timing of that. So again, the math being that we get a shield essentially of that purchase price. The total value of that from a tax effective perspective is about $1.5 billion, and we're sort of saying we'll get 50% of that back over 5 years. And it's a bit front-end weighted from a tax perspective.
So we're just guiding and reminding people that, yes, we will get this benefit. We won't see it though. We're not going to see a big lump sum come back into our treasury, it's just -- it just means that FY '27 tax will just be slightly lower, that's all.
Clear. And then if I can sneak 1 more in, updated resources reserves in May. Can you help me understand the drilling that's being done at Hemi? I assume that's mostly been infill drilling too, because I will probably get an update on CapEx, OpEx with the multiyear outlook. Is that correct before the end of the same way? And I'm just trying to understand how we think about mine life or upside at that asset versus what the focus is now.
Yes. Thanks, Kate. Just before I close, I go to Hemi on that as with diesel and fuel, that is the expected uptick the $75 to $80 in AISC, but it's not last quarter plus that. So it's the component that is increased within. But as we grow out to ounces to the so there's other things that are moving in that side, please don't just accretively add that. Hemi, we've done the drilling, but you're right, it has been really infill and testing, and we've been more aggressive on some of the pitches and shelves on the resource. So we've been -- we've had to sort of incorporate that into how we would do things which may be a little bit stricter. But that will be reflected in how we report the resource and I think equally is being more aggressive on the reserve generally to be contingency and the like. So that will be reflected and reported, which will likely be in May.
We won't be giving any other aspects of the Hemi project there, but we will be working on -- we're still working on those numbers in line with expectations around approvals. But the CapEx you're talking about perhaps is the budget of exploration in the forward years. That will be in the multiple and whether we intend to put money into Hemi, my attitude is, there's enough ounces in the ground without really heavily going into growth. We don't need it for a trigger for a FID decision. So there might be other opportunities like Pogo or Fimiston where we get much more effective investment in exploration to add ounces to make bigger longer-term decisions than Hemi needs today. So Hemi might have a lighter approach to that drilling expenditure because there's a very, very solid base for an investment case without it.
Your next question comes from Hugo Nicolaci with Goldman Sachs.
Sorry, technical issues, and apologies if some of these have been asked. I was just revisiting firstly on Carosue Dam and Simon, your comment that the open pit mining concludes. I appreciate you've probably got new open pits that need developing. But I guess just to clarify around the timing, is that decision in the open pits this quarter and maybe demobilize that fleet largely around the strip ratio increasing and the diesel requirements that go into that. And then you're able to maybe talk through anything around the underground mining rate and grade going forward from here to potentially offset the fall in gold production by processing stockpiles?
Yes. Thanks, Hugo. No, look, just to be clear, it's not around diesel and trying to conserve. I'll slow down open pit mining due to diesel. It's purely the mine sequencing. So mines coming and going at that asset is fairly normal over the journey. It's just we've reached the end of the current open pits, 11 bells Redbrook finishes this quarter, then we might have some box cuts and a few things to do early in FY '27, but there's no ounces attached to that. It's more setting up for the next leg of the underground growth.
So probably the best way to think about it is when we do the Investor Day later on this calendar year. We could really show with a bit more visibility on some of the sequencing of the mines.
That's helpful. So if we think about it today, then realistically, the underground rates aren't picking up that materially, you're probably seeing Carosue drop below that 200,000 ounces a year for the next couple of years where you do that underground development?
It could do. We're still working through that, but we've got some good growth at Dervish. So we'll see how that plays out when we do the resource and the reserves and then feed that current information back into the life of asset mining plan.
Got it. That's helpful. And then, Ryan, just sort of running back on the buyback piece, just confirming then to the timing and magnitude of the buyback as it stands purely a value decision on your stock and then maybe come August as KCGM and your capital requirements become a little bit clearer. Should we consider scope to maybe take this to a magnitude you've previously targeted as being more meaningful around the buyback?
I think everything is always on the table, Hugo. We want to allocate our capital to the best return. So buyback is something if it gets exhausted, if we're through it quickly, it's always -- we're always able to assess new opportunity there. And as I said, we're not too far away from seeing that change in free cash flow. There's challenges across the business. There's challenges in oil, all these things. So right now, we've decided on that, I guess, quantum. We're ready to act. And I guess we'll make those decisions as positive time plays out.
Your next question comes from Jonathon Sharp with JPMorgan.
Just with KCGM mill expansion, the CapEx. Can you just help us understand the split between construction productivity and cost inflation and which is proving harder to control as we move through commissioning.
Yes. So -- thanks, Jonathon. So look, there's no lift about $60 million for that project that we've just reported, so 30 this year for next year. I'd say, and it then knocks through to the other, but probably 2/3 of that is just the lower productivity. So you've got more people doing the same work at that elevated cost. In turn, cost escalation is occurring, not just through diesel but through all other things, and labor is embedded in all of those cost escalations, which we don't see easing. So that's been a large part of -- you have extra labor, it flows through to commuting that labor, housing that labor, the consumables they use, all of those things knock through. But yes, it's a reality that underpins anyone spending money at the moment.
Yes. Okay. That's clear. And just as you move through commissioning without getting into commercially sensitive detail, does the main contract to remain accountable through wet commissioning, performance testing and other performance incentives acceptable criteria tied to sort of final handover, just interested in knowing a little bit of detail on that?
For sure. I mean, there's pretty traditional standard things where you do a handover and it's got to make criteria, so that's embedded. And look, we've got the commitment from the contractor that they want to see this working as well as we do and promote it for the next opportunity. So that's there. Equally, we've got the same contractor doing Stage 2. It's a different structure, again, different incentivization. So our approach to that is going well. And Simon spoke to 95% of the stage 1 is complete. Nearly 50% of Stage 2 is complete and those structures drive that behavior largely. So yes, we're okay with those things, and we'll be tracking and checking those things closely.
We won't be silly on the risk balance here. If it comes down to disputes around small amounts of quality, we think running the plant and addressing some of those things as we go rather than not waiting to move in new house to your fly screens are on, we'll be sensible in the timing of that.
Your next question comes from Adam Baker with Macquarie.
Thanks for the color on the increase in fuel prices. Assuming mostly it's related to diesel. But just looking at the midpoint of guidance, I mean, that's implying about a 3% increase in your cost base. Just wondering if you go back to the start of FY '26, prior to the diesel price escalation. Can you give us any color on what diesel prices were as a percentage of cost base for the business?
They're probably -- Adam, it's Ryan. That's basically doubled, I guess, in this quarter that we're forecasting. They're probably 4% of our business, I'd say, back then. Now they're obviously pushing 7%, 8% for the quarter.
That's good. And just secondly, on clearly, a lot of optionality for you guys to deploy that. Just wondering if you've considered any minimum net cash threshold before you deploy it, noting you've got $320 million at the end of the quarter, I'd say that you wouldn't draw down on the $1.75 billion corporate bank facility to prioritize the buyback, for example.
I think, Adam, what I'd say is, yes, we want to maintain good liquidity. We've got good flexibility on our balance sheet if we have to draw debt if for whatever purpose. And we see the cash flows ahead, right? So we're sitting here in late April. The mill will turn on early FY '27. We're really looking forward to that. We see what's ahead. There's challenges in the sort of more global economy with oil, but we feel is on with our balance sheet, with our cash and bullion on hand, we can manage that.
There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Tonkin for closing remarks.
Okay. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining us on the call, and I appreciate your interest in the company on what is a very busy day. Thanks very much.
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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Northern Star Resources — Northern Star Resources Limited, 2026 Operating Results Call, Mar 13, 2026
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Northern Star operational update. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Stuart Tonkin, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for joining the call today. With me is Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Gurner; and Chief Operating Officer, Simon Jessop. We provide an operational update today given a weaker production performance quarter-to-date, which makes achievement of the full year production guidance challenging. While several factors will continue to have a meaningful impact on the full year result, the company's best estimate at the current time is that FY '26 production will be above 1.5 million ounces.
Significant and ongoing operational challenges remain with the existing Fimiston processing plant, which result in difficulty of maintaining throughput, and we have considered this variability, which has led to a revised outlook.
At the onset of FY '26, we planned an annualized throughput of 12 million tonnes through the Fimiston plant, which was a reduced level from historical performance of 13 million tonnes, recognizing the age and condition of the plant as we operate until the new expanded facility is commissioned in FY '27. The immersed unplanned outages, disruptions and the consequential production losses will likely result in the plant achieving [ 10 million ] tonnes for FY '26, which is materially below plan.
At the end of February, stockpiled high-grade ore ready to be milled totaled approximately 2 million tonnes at 1.6 grams per tonne for 100,000 ounces. This recognizes that mining activity from both the open pit and the underground are tracking to plan and will be available for future processing.
At the existing Fimiston plant, we have added breakdown maintenance labor to assist with unplanned downtime. We continue to assess and balance preventative maintenance tasks to preempt and mitigate disruptions, and we will continue to do so until the new plant is commissioned in early FY '27.
Pleasingly, the new Fimiston expanded plant is tracking to schedule with the added labor resources we have applied with over 800 people working on the plant and over 400 people on enabling works, including the tailings dam construction. These staffing levels and the complexity reduces over the coming months as completion nears, and we are focused on ensuring that this exciting project is not interrupted by current production setbacks or actions to deliver short-term guidance.
Now at Yandal, our year-to-date progress is also below plan. This has resulted in high cost production and the company is undertaking operational review aimed at reducing costs and prioritizing higher margin ounces there. Jundee, which has traditionally been able to scale quality with quantity, is becoming more capital intensive, which is evident in activity and costs. And as part of this, an operational review, there's opportunity to redeploy surplus personnel and equipment to higher-margin operations, and we expect these changes to occur over the June quarter.
So the company has also commenced work on producing medium-term forecasts. We're listening to investors on that requirement, and we will plan to release prior to the end of the calendar year. And so the opportunity today is to go through the detail of this and answer questions that we can.
So with that, I'll pass over to the moderator and you've got myself, Stuart. You've got Ryan and Simon here.
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Hugo Nicolaci with Goldman Sachs.
2. Question Answer
I appreciate being able to ask questions. So a bit to work through here. But look, firstly, on this year, I get not wanting to chase FY '26 and then sort of risking the outlook into next year and beyond. But translate your sales for January, February of [ 220,000 ] ounces and call the March quarter [ 330 ]. You're sort of then implying to get to that 1.5 million minimum that you need to get back to June last year, sort of 440 despite the uncertainty of KCGM and Jundee. Can you help us sort of piece together how you get to that 1.5 million ounce outlook for FY '26, please?
Thanks, Hugo. Look, January and February are representative of quarter 3, so we do expect a stronger quarter 3 than you've quite there on the exact straight line run rate. So with this guidance update today, we've considered how we're tracking in March, what's in front of us as well as the outlook of forecast. I would say we were -- there's 2 main drivers. One is the underperformance of throughput at KCGM that we were expecting to restore with the efforts put in. So we've kind of dragged right. Really, it's a throughput rate of nearly 9 million tonnes for half 2 instead of to deliver to 10 million for the full year. There's upside opportunity there as well as downside risk.
And then the other element was, as we've traditionally done throughout each year, not designed by activity of the hockey stick, not expecting an outperform out of Jundee in quarter 4 has really put some ounces out of that quarter 4. So we've -- we're really looking at this from a risk lens, how bad can it be if we don't get outperformances, really [indiscernible] recognizing the contributions from each of the assets. And today is important for this disclosure to talk about KCGM mill and our outlook on Jundee. We feel the rest of the operations are tracking to plan and okay.
Stuart, can just clarify then? In terms of March, so you're saying that January, Feb is not indicative. I mean, for the March quarter then, is this something like 350 to just 400 sort of the range that we should expect and then we can extrapolate the fourth quarter from then?
Correct.
Got it. And then if I can, just on -- turning to Jundee, sort of reprioritizing higher margin material and relocating people across the portfolio. I mean what do you think then is the outlook for that asset going forward here? And what does that mean for the Yandal hub target of 550,000 ounces over the medium term?
Yes. Look, we're probably -- it's probably premature to give that outlook today. We're doing the work we need to do that deep dive on the asset. I'd say it can operate up and down those ranges, but at what cost. So I guess, what we're saying today is at 300,000 ounces, which was our aspirational running rate, it's a high-cost high intensive, high development stoping drills demand. We don't believe that's the best place for Jundee to sit. We've got to do that work. Once that's complete, we'll update. And there's no risk on the redeployment of people and equipment. We can send that into other operations. But this is around a reset fundamentally for Jundee, which contribution into Yandal. We've already taken a bit of a reset of Thunderbox. This is really the combination of those 2 things, and we've just got to do that work.
Your next question comes from Kate McCutcheon with Northern Star.
Apologies, I must have messed up the company name there. So -- not yet. So at least 100,000 ounces lower for the FY versus what you thought 3 months ago. How much of that delta is KCGM versus Jundee or the other assets? That would be helpful.
Yes. So I would say, when we updated, we planned for some uplift at Jundee likely 20,000, 25,000 ounces of windfall of high-grade stopes in quarter 4. You've seen Jundee swing. It's not orebody. You've seen that performance historically before. Same as at Pogo, where you've got -- there's no good orebodies that you can have those swings, those high grades.
That's what we've pulled out of that, but I'd say the bulk is KCGM. And the opportunity is also to get every 100,000 tonnes effectively up or down is 5,000 ounces. And so if we were able to afford that uptime or keep things running through that plant, the ore is there on the ROM in front of it. There's a bit of a time lag in getting it into concentrates and into door ad sales. But that's why we've had to sort of really take them back, that really hedged on KCGM as the ballpark of that step down.
Sorry, I'm not -- so the bulk of the lower ounces is KCGM. I'm not clear on the magnitude.
Correct. 2/3 is KCGM and 1/3 of that really is Jundee.
Okay. Got it. And then no update on cost today. Is there anything fatally flawed in taking the $1 million number implied in the higher guidance with the lower denominator? Is there anything else to think about for the all-in sustaining cost there?
Look, year-to-date, we're tracking within the goals that we have stated and restated or reset, I guess, in January. So if we were to depart from that, we would have included that in today. What we don't know going forward is impacts around oil. I guess what we do -- we do know that it has impacts. And so we look at the sensitivities to it. In the scheme of things, we still feel it's ounces and ounces as the denominator gold, so it's more effect on the ask.
Our dollar millions are largely committed with resource at these levels. We're spending that effort and energy at work. So really, it depends on the ounce profile to get to that. But year-to-date, we're tracking within that 2,600 to 2,800 [ base ].
Your next question comes from Daniel Morgan with Barrenjoey.
Question -- my first question is just at Jundee. Can we just understand what's going on a bit more there? Is it orebody related in that it's deeper or more narrow, becoming harder to reconcile and just an old tired operational asset that we need to rethink fundamentally how big it is? Because the market has 250,000 ounces in the numbers for the next few years, which sounds like redeploying people and equipment. It sounds like a significant haircut needs to be taken to production and possibly life.
Thanks, Daniel. So we're not meeting the grade to plan. There's some slight downgrades on some of those things. We're understanding why. It's obviously, even though it's decades, we've operated and owned it. You're seeing that decline. Questions is, I think, it's pretty evident on previous quarterlies, the departure from actual grade to reserves. So we understand the higher grade, upper levels that we're putting in the paste plant. Start brining that high grade of pillars and remnant material in, but we will look closely at the overall resource and reserve again as we do at the close of March and publish that.
But I think this is more around the nearly 3 kilometers of development a month, 150,000, 160,000 stope tonnes a month. It's very intensive. We got 13 diamond drills there to -- from a discovery power wave to replace depletion. It's just a busy, busy, busy place for the same or less ounces than we developed decade ago.
So it's a big system. What I'd say is maybe that creep has kept us going, and we just want to actually do a bottom-up overall plan review. It will take a number of months, I guess, us going through that information. Decided doing the best they can do with what's in front of them, but we need the intervention. And that's what we're prepared to do, is go through and really, really look at the detail.
And I know you say that there's a consensus at 250,000 ounces. We can operate the mine at those levels, but it's at what cost? And therefore, we're saying as an overall contribution to Yandal or the group, is that drop level for us.
And I guess, as a broader question, I mean, you commenced a formal operational review on Jundee. I guess there's been productivity issues and some other assets and missing guidance, et cetera. Just wondering, should there be operational reviews on other assets or strategic reviews? Or why only Jundee?
Yes, fair question, Dan. I think we're really calling this out right now of expected new plan going forward for that asset, and we need the time to do the deep dive. We are doing operational reviews always as just part of our normal business. But it's usually -- when you've got an outcome or a clear view of what's not working, then you've got decisions in front of you to take. And so that's really what we're calling out this asset right now, is the current plan afoot is going to be an expensive cost one, and so expect a different plan for that.
If I give the other example of Pogo, we can see around the dilution of the grades that have occurred. We get things right. The plan is robust and secure. So it doesn't need a bottom-up analysis reveal. And we've done that to a life of the plan we've got, and it's around the controls we can see in front of us to get the benefit. We've seen improved grade at Pogo, and we've still got work to do. But we don't see that fundamentally as an issue, whereas we see the current plan at Jundee is going to get harder and more expensive and more intensive, so let's intervene now and look what it looks like in the coming years.
Yes. Dan, if I could just add to that from Simon, it's more it's around the Jundee, the execution risk as well of the -- pulling all the different areas together. So as you said, we're 2.7 to 3 kilometers a month. So just trying to find where is that balance between execution risk and delivery along with the grade variability. So we do need the time and space to do that deep dive, but it is around execution risk at the higher ounces.
Right. And then maybe, I mean, a big driver today is the mill performance at KCGM. Can you just help us understand a little bit more? Because you've got a very complex thing you're achieving this year where it's going to be effectively mostly a brand-new mill next door to an existing mill. So you've got those 2 things happening in parallel and operating mill versus the project. You've got people running the existing mill, and you will have to have people run the new mill. Like is the challenges here people related and trying to do too much at one time? Or is it the old mill is old, clubbed out, unreliable and it's not worth it from a returns perspective to be patching up and applying capital to a piece of equipment that's going to shut down in several months' time? Like just help me understand what is at the core, what is driving this problem.
Yes. Thanks, Dan. Simon. If I go with the mill, so KCGM's 37 years since the asset first produced gold. So we are struggling with lots of different areas across various maintenance areas. So we have a lot of bogging events, 30% of our downtime sort of in bogging events, which is from a complicated circuit of 5 mills. We're going to only 1 of those mills goes forward. The float circuit has a lot of mechanical issues, so that's sort of roughly 30% of our downtime across the group. And then you've got aging electrical areas, which is giving us a lot of grief at the moment. So that's 20% to 30% is the electrical and air. So they're the broad areas, but it isn't -- like quarter 2 was 1 key area, which was the crusher. Since the 5th of January, we've had 0 issues with the crusher. That's performing. It's from the -- after the PIM sag through the rest of the plant is where we're having lots and lots of stoppages, which just gives us instability in the plant, and we've just got large pieces of [ downtime ].
In terms of KCGM, the new mill and the old mill, they are separate teams. So the new mill is running in parallel, completely isolated to the existing personnel running the old mill. Over the next few months, we've started -- well, we have already started the ops readiness training for operators. The maintenance systems for the new mill is all -- had 18 months of work on it. It's -- that's tracking very, very well, and we want to maintain the focus on preparation for the new mill in FY '27, but at the same time, as Stu said, every 100,000 tonne we can get out of the old mill is 5,000 ounces, which is large revenue.
So they are 2 separate teams. We're just seeing much, much lower throughput than we have historically. We budgeted for that, but we haven't seen -- we've seen a material departure from what we budgeted at 12 million tonnes.
And Daniel, I mean, the question of the people and the stretch and the interactions, I mean, this has been something that management and the Board have been really closely in front of mind, is that is one impacting the other. And so Simon's saying they're separate teams, they're literally physically ring-fenced the activity, but the bandwidth of making sure that near-term decisions doesn't compromise the delivery of the new plant, that's really important, and that's what we're reinforcing as well across the group.
So doesn't mean we've surrendered or given up on delivery of near-term targets and guidance. We still work on that, but we isolate the go-forward new plant has the attention and efforts because the end of the day, that's the multi-decade the multiyear investment, that's multi-decade sort of uplift is the step change for the group and the company, and we are very close. I mean the back of the 3-year builds, and it's looking great. I was bolting around the plant a week ago looking at the to do list. It's impressive quality and we're excited to see it turned on.
It's even more pleasing when you look at the old part and the deterioration of it that we've made this decision 3 years ago to replace it. So we thought we could get this plant, really the existing plant singing right up to the point. There are elements of the existing plant we may utilize and repurpose in the future. So we don't want it to fall in a heap either. So those decisions around keeping it going, there's never a financial case to say let it fail and stop it prematurely. Unfortunately, it's always a point to keep it rolling. So at the moment, efforts and energy on both of those, but they're separate teams.
Your next question comes from Levi Spry with UBS.
Two questions, please. Firstly, on FY '27 guidance, I guess, thinking about KCGM plant, can you just step us through what's still on that to do the list? And what are the assumptions behind the 23 million tonnes for next year? Or what other assumptions are in there? Yes.
Thanks, Levi. I'd say those things haven't changed from what we've said today's announcements about the here and now in existing plants. The expectations for the completion of the new build is a ramp-up during quarter 1 of FY '27. Ideally, we're at the early part of that quarter and the 23 million tonnes is related to the full year with planned and unplanned assumptions on the downtime, what I believe we will provide is a bit of a ramp-up curve that shows and explains quarter 1 shouldn't be times by 4. Every plant around the globe that's being commissioned in this case has those ramp-ups. You've got the McNulty that basically says early when you're building these things, you need to settle them in. And so the start rate isn't the exit rate, but these are all dependent on the final tie-in.
So a lot of the labor, there's nearly 900 people there that's decreasing in the next couple of months as we close out these projects. Really, that labor by the end of June should just be starting to move across to Stage 2, which is all where the ultrafine grinding circuit to redundant happens. And we should be powering up and turning over and getting flows-through the new plant. So those are the things that are still on track.
We've obviously added the cost and the labor to achieve that time line, and we're pleased with that progress today.
Okay. And then if I just think about the working -- the works towards producing a medium-term forecast, so the steps are a reserve and resource update at the end of March, guidance in between 7 and then be into that medium-term forecast at the end of the calendar year with Jundee potentially the main moving part. Is that the summary?
Yes, Jundee, but I guess we should have greater information on time lines for Hemi as well. So the way we would explain medium term is what investors -- listening to investors what the request and rightly say multiyear production costs and capital. And the real levels is that multiyear ramp-up of KCGM, the new plant, coupled with the build of Hemi and then the rest of the assets at what go-forward level they are at, which would include options that we'll assess for Jundee, how big it is. Is it and what is a cost profile? That's how we would talk about the multiyear.
So to your point is absolutely resource reserves is a key bookend. We get that end of March. We do the work in quarter 4 around budgeting outlook forecasts. Ideally, we've completed this deep guide on Jundee with decisions, and then we're able to provide the market with medium-term being multiyear costs, production and capital.
Your next question comes from Matthew Frydman with MST Financial.
Can I just follow on from that question, I guess, on the FY '27 ramp-up at KCGM and understanding that you provide us a bit of a ramp-up curve in time? But can you maybe sort of break down roughly or conceptually how much you've seen throughput from the new mill in FY '27 versus how much from the old mill in your prior guidance? I guess I'm just trying to understand what is the likelihood or the range of outcomes if these issues at the old mill continue into FY '27 through the crossover period. Does the old mill represent 10% of the production that's at risk of ongoing failures? Or is it 25%? Or if you sort of give a ballpark on that, that would be helpful.
Look, good question, Matt. I think we looked at it from -- also the spread capacity and more of the weight in the back part of the year of the new plant. So at a very reduced rate, even a 50% performance out of the new plant outstrips the old plant, so -- and we expect a better outcome, clearly a better outcome than that to get 23 million tonnes.
So what I'd say is that we will -- we wish to switch over to the new plant and lean into it as soon as possible and the reliance on the old plant has not been there. So yes, I think the run rate of 9 million tonnes in the half 2 should not really continue in FY '27 and deteriorate the overall outcome. The level -- if we were not to achieve 23 million tonnes from the new plant in FY '27, either because of a delayed start or because of unplanned downtime throughout the year, one offset from that is the differential in grade feeds.
So the tonnes that would be displaced would be the lowest grade stockpile, 0.6 kind of grams, and we would preferentially put in your underground and your gold pipe high-grade feeds. So even if it wasn't 23 million tonnes, it doesn't mean the ounce profile is proportionate. So that's one lever.
And then ideally, we've built a 27 million tonne per annum plant. Our attitude is we've given ourselves multiple years to get up to that consistent rate. But day 1, when we turn it on, it should do that. And then it gets turned off, gets fixed or adjusted or talked up. All of that planned downtime is why it's 23 million. It's not running at that rate. It's running at a 27 million tonnes per annum plant or better. And then it's been deliberately brought down or the reliability as we settle things embedded in delivering a full year, a lower overall tonnage.
So there's lots of moving parts involved in assumptions. It's never smooth. So we'll try as best we can to show people how the ramp-up would look like, and we'll try to provide as much transparency as we can. It could be lumpy, but I just explained that this is a 3-year build. It's a $1.5 billion construction [ 6 plus ]. It's there for multi-decades. We want to get that right because it is a real step change benefit to the business and the value creation.
Yes, understood. So just to be clear on that, so you're saying that the 23 million tonne target is purely what you expect to put through the new mill in that first year and then hypothetically, anything that you get out of the old mill is separate to that or on top of that? Or I'm guessing that opportunity to -- it's either running one or the other, the distinct turnover. You don't have the opportunity to potentially squeeze out of the [indiscernible].
Yes, correct. It's running one or the other because part of the stream feed through the crushers and SAG is the new part of the new circuit. So there's minimal downtime of the switchover, but there aren't -- you can't run both at once.
Yes. Got it. No, makes sense. And then maybe secondly, a bit of a broader question, and Simon described the various issues that you're facing with the old mill, which, I guess, effectively could be summarized as an overall issue of asset integrity at probably, unfortunately, the most important asset in the whole business at the moment in terms of the amount of revenue that it produces anyway. So I guess the broader question is, is there anything that needs to change in the business to prevent this kind of issue going forward, be seeing this kind of string of downgrades is just a confluence of events which have been outside of the control of the site team or the executive team in terms of [indiscernible] outcomes that have led to these short-term issues in your view? Or are there things that you think you can do going forward that could be changed structurally, culturally or whatever the case may be to drive, whether it's drive better compliance to plans or better compliance the guidance or improved asset, integrity outcomes, all those sorts of factors?
We take accountability for that -- for those downgrades. They've been largely within our control on the things we've tried to manage and the risks we've understood. When you're managing risks, you're putting in all the mitigants and sometimes they get realized.
There are external factors that impact even now if I get a phase shift on a power out in Kalgoorlie, a nanosecond of power blip, and I can have hours or days of cleanup and bogging of pumps in that plant because it's the tech and it can't deal with it. Now I can blame our systems and lightning, but ultimately, it's the integrity, understanding operability of that existing plant. And as that example, I'm pleased that the new plant should be able to manage these type of things. And as we get that sort of battery storage and those other things that sit behind it, we don't get impacted in those ways. That's how we thought about it.
But when we talk about multiple downgrades, each of those are finite events and that have been updated as best we can when they occur. We're not trying to second guess or predict or game messaging. We're working hard to growing business, which is never a straight line, to give transparency on what we know when we know it. And that's really what today is, too, is, right now, with the performance to date, we can't see -- we see great risk in delivering the lower part of the guidance. So we've explained, we believe we can do above 1.5 with the continuing outlook we have for the next 4 months.
So these are the examples. And if we go back to, yes, on the 2nd of January, on the first, we had the sales. We had lots of things in place and plans. We updated the market when we're aware of those things. When we've calculated the costs, we update the market on the cost that we calculate.
So I'd say our learnings out of that, we don't enjoy bad news as anyone else. We're working very hard to get it right. We absolutely are learning and have learned from these experiences and we intend to incorporate that into our outlook going forward. It doesn't mean we're sandbagging. It doesn't mean we're trying to put in buffer, but we certainly need to give you, the audience here, the basis of the assumptions of why we call out what we call out.
I get that on the external, it appears that we haven't been forthcoming with information. It's not the case from our side. Everything we've put out, we have a -- we're a technical team. We've got science and background and assumptions based on plans, contingencies, et cetera. If I was sitting here in January, I absolutely thought 1.6 was a very comfortable floor that we would clear and as is our team. So to be sitting here as soon as now saying things haven't gone well, I get it. It's disappointing for us as this audience, and we've got to learn from that.
Your next question comes from Ben Lyons with Jarden.
Might just carry on that train of thinking. Stuart, I mean, it's very disappointing. But to then tell us it's going to take 12 months to give us what we want when you've got all of this science and all the technical capability and aptitude and everything else, you just mentioned that sits behind it, haven't you just embedded a 12-month overhang on the stock price?
Well, that's not for us to decide, Ben. So what I'm saying is we've given enough time for us to do that thorough work. And I think it's important we need to resource the reserves. These things take time to go through and look at plants. When you look at things like Jundee, we want to work out the current development that's there, to get the best out of that and do things in an orderly fashion.
This is an irrational kind of immediate changes. It's around shifting in an orderly fashion structurally that asset to a better place. It will take time. I've said out there that, yes, calendar year is when we'll give that update, our traditional outlook comes in July or August on the year's guidance. We ideally will have great visibility around things like Hemi, but there are things that are out of our control. So when we've got it, we'll let you know.
But at the moment, you can believe there's no overhang or not. I think people voted today on the market open. I don't know if you call that an overhang.
Yes. There's other management teams that can build a processing plant within a 12-month period that -- I'll leave that. Just on the KCGM, yes, I don't want to put pressure on them by adding them in a public forum, but as soon as they get their environmentals in 12 months or a couple of million tonnes circuit. Anyway, we're just talking about an Investor Day and the disclosure that really I would have thought should have been at your fingertips already.
But my second question, just on KCGM. Is it just tonnes? Or is it also grade that we're talking about here? I mean we've been habituated, I guess, to think of Golden Pike North is a 2-gram orebody. Charlotte is a 2-gram orebody. The high-grade stockpiles at 1.6 on the ROM today. So have we got a grade reconciliation issue at KCGM we need to discuss as well? Or is it just simply tonnage through the mill?
Yes, Ben, Simon. Look, the grade of Gold Pike is performing exceptionally well. The reason the average grade of that 100,000 tonnes on the stockpile of [ 1,000 ounces ], sorry, at 1.6 is because it's still got some grade from OBH and some grade from Fimiston South or Great Boulder. So the actual Golden Pike is performing very, very well. Our recons have been 99% of late, so the GP down the bottom is performing 2 grams. So very happy with the reconciliation. The only reason the average is down is because there's other grades in there.
Your next question comes from John Sharp with JPMorgan.
Maybe just to dig into the comments you made from Kate's question. Just beyond KCGM and Jundee, is Pogo achieving grade required to support FY '26 guidance? Or is it -- in your view, is it underperforming? Is it less than adequate? Just interested in your views there.
Yes. Thanks, John. So I think it was part of the first half delivery was below plan. I think we called that out in January. We've considered to date and how it's going to go into quarter 4 in this update today. It's improving. Actions are working. So we're okay with that.
We will look closely at that reserve grade given some of the mining factors on it. But end of the day, we don't see it as broken or reconciliation being an issue. We identified some of the mining factors that were diluting that grade today.
John, just to add to that, I was over at Pogo a few weeks back and had a really good sitdown with the team there, and we've seen grade. Certainly did in December. January and February have been good months, and the teams put some really good work into rectifying the October, November issues that we did have in terms of dilution. So Pogo is tracking to plan, and we've factored that into our operational update.
Okay. And just sort of to follow on from Matt's question, just with the planning and guidance framework. Now I know you said at the start of the year, you're pretty confident in hitting guidance. But what needs to change to ensure future plans are more realistic? And probably more important, how do you balance between sandbagging your guidance versus overpromising? Is it planning? Is it -- what is it?
Yes. Thanks, John. Look, it often comes out of the stability of the asset. So you appreciate over the recent years, we're growing -- investing and growing and expanding assets and they're changing from areas. And that's where you're extrapolating. You're not inside the range, and you see other businesses in companies generally that can keep the needle pretty tight on stability. They're not growing, and they're maintaining or even harvesting.
So when we get those assets to those happy places, that gives us greater consistency. It's the rate of change and the shifting of things at the moment, which has made that forecasting difficult. Perhaps we've been too optimistic on success. They may be some more contingency and realism in some of the ramp-ups. And I'm not calling that sandbagging, but I'm saying both ups and downsides that are realistic. They are the things that we can start to incorporate into future outlooks. And then just give you as much disclosure on the assumptions so that when things move or change, we can update and provide that, but equally, people can do their own math on the flex of those things in their models.
Your next question comes from Hayden Bairstow with Argonaut.
Just a couple for me. Just on the KCGM stockpile and Simon, you mentioned the sort of 1.6 grams. But how much of that is candy grade stream or the mill only running it effectively, I guess, a 9 million tonne run rate for 6 months? Can you put a -- is there a fair bit of 2-gram dirt that you can push through to get a better growth for this half to offset some of that?
Yes. Thanks, Hayden. We are doing that. So we are putting aside the lower-grade portion of that. It is purely the throughput. So we can see head grades of 2 grams day in, day out. It's purely down to how much volume we can get through there. There's not much more we can grade stream realistically above that is the odd block in the pit that's 3 grams and things. We do get pieces of that. So yesterday, we mined 4,000 ounces at 3.4 grams out of the open pit, but it's not going to be that average consistently.
So we are trying to grade stream as best we can. There is no stockpile material going into the feed at all. It's purely around how much volume we can get through the process plant.
Yes. Okay. But almost 30%, 40% of the feeds from that higher underground grade I presume, but we can't get to a 2-gram head grade for the whole mill [indiscernible].
Yes. The underground is getting some of that pushed to the side because we're still in ramping up the underground. So the underground is tracking at sort of that 1.7 grams year-to-date, and that's because the stoping contribution is still building and we're developing a large mine. So some of the underground grade is put to the side, and we're feeding as much of the open pit high-grade material through the process plant as we can to get the right blend.
Okay. And just a finance question. I mean, you've obviously got plenty of debt facilities to draw upon. But do we assume then that over the course of this calendar year, you are going to be drawing down some of that $1.5 billion of debt, just looking at the fact that where the cash flow might be through this final phase of the build. And also, you still got that outstanding staffing the total between the grade in and Saraswati of $330 million. Have we got any idea on the timing of when that stuff has to be paid?
It's Ryan. Yes, it is uncertain, I'll say, but my expectation is not this financial year on the stamp duty. A bit more color on the quarter. We are free cash flow positive for January and February. Just above that breakeven. So we have increased our cash in bullion holdings for the 2 months. And obviously, the next 4 months, we're telling it based on the math that there's going to be an uplift. So I'm confident that our free cash on that basis will be positive.
And obviously [indiscernible]
[indiscernible]
Your next question comes from Mitch Ryan with Jefferies.
Just can you help me from a strategic perspective, I guess, given underperformance of the stock relative to your global peers and your view of the long-term inherent value of the company, what are you doing to prevent the company being taken over at a discount? And has the company received any approaches this financial year?
Thanks, Mitch. Today, I seem to feel more vulnerable with this. And so these are things and questions we'll be looking at and discussing with our Board, mate. So yes, absolutely, we've got to knuckle down and perform. Our attitude around this is we see enormous long-term value. So we've got to work to restore that and build that up. So I won't comment on vulnerability or otherwise or takeover risks, but my attitude is we've got work to do. We know what we're doing. It's going to take some time. And it's something the Board takes seriously and reviews.
There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Tonkin for closing remarks.
Okay. Well, thank you so much for your time joining the call today. Have a good morning, and we look forward to talking to you soon.
Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today.
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Northern Star Resources — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Northern Star Fiscal Year '26 Half Year Financial Results. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Stuart Tonkin, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thanks for joining us to discuss our first half FY '26 financial results. We will be referring to the presentation as published on the ASX this morning. With me on the call today is our Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Gurner. This first half result demonstrates the resilience and growing returns we are embedding in our business. Our balance sheet remains in a net cash position, notwithstanding the significant investments we are making to transform Northern Star into a lowest half-cost global gold producer.
Given our positive outlook for the company, the Board has declared a fully franked $0.25 per share interim dividend whilst recognizing a soft operating performance in the second quarter. The KCGM mill expansion remains on schedule for commissioning in early FY '27 with the actions of increasing labor being positive there. I want to assure our investors that Northern Star remains committed to improving our operating performance.
Notwithstanding recent challenges, we reaffirm our commitment to operational excellence. We continue to prioritize medium-term production growth while advancing initiatives to reduce unit costs. Our diversified portfolio provides a pipeline of options that underpins long-term value creation and returns for shareholders. While today is about the half year financial results, I would like to briefly touch on the operational performances so far this year.
At KCGM, milling performance is stabilizing, but will continue to be disruptive until we transition to the new plant. At Jundee, remedy works are expected to be completed this month in line with expectations with milling throughput normalizing and focus now turning to mine volumes and grades. Pleasingly, at Pogo, mine grades have increased, but I'd still like to see further improvement and focus on dilution.
Our team remains firmly focused on driving productivity improvements and strengthening cost discipline to deliver a stronger second half for our shareholders. Before I hand over to Ryan, I would like to take this opportunity to thank our team for their efforts and commitments over 2025 as it was a challenging period. With that, over to Ryan, who will discuss the first half FY '26 results in more detail.
Thanks, Stu. Good morning, all. I'll step you now through the first half financials. So I'd like to begin on Slide 4, which outlines our key financial metrics for the group, being the company delivering a record underlying EBITDA of $1.9 billion for the first half of FY '26, which was up 34% from the previous corresponding period. Underlying free cash flow was impacted by soft operational performance during Q2, tax payments relating to FY '25 and investment in our growth projects to drive our future cash flows higher.
Looking ahead over the next 6 to 12 months, we expect free cash flow to improve with a stronger second half operational outlook, normalized tax payments and the commissioning of the KCGM mill expansion project in early FY '27. Adjusting for abnormal items, our underlying earnings of $0.53 per share grew 19% over the prior corresponding period, and we recorded strong first half cash earnings of $1.1 billion, which has enabled our Board to declare a fully franked interim dividend of $0.25 per share.
Over to Slide 5. Our balance sheet supports our strategy and gives us flexibility through the cycle to fund opportunities that may arise to enhance our portfolio to deliver long-term superior shareholder returns. Our investment-grade balance sheet remains strong and in a net cash position of $293 million at 31 December. And we have significant liquidity totaling $2.7 billion, which includes $1.5 billion of facilities, which remain undrawn.
Now Slide 6. As mentioned, we continue our strong track record of returning funds to shareholders with the Board declaring a fully franked interim dividend of $0.25 per share, totaling $358 million. The record date of the dividend is 5 March and payment date of 26th of March. A reminder that the company's dividend policy is 20% to 30% of full year cash earnings.
Over to Slide 7, where we highlight the EBITDA margin achieved by the group for the half year ending 31 December and the preceding half year for each production center. All 3 production centers are achieving healthy EBITDA margins, resulting in a group margin of 55% for the period. Yandal Production Center experienced disruptions over the December quarter and higher associated operating costs, which impacted margins in the period.
With these disruptions behind us, we expect margins to lift in the second half at this production center. Similarly, at Pogo, we are forecasting a lift in mining grades, which in turn will drive margin improvement over the second half of the financial year. And across the Kalgoorlie Production Center, our focus remains on completing the final stages of our mill expansion at KCGM with commissioning on track for early FY '27. This milestone will mark the beginning of a step change in returns and cash flow at this asset.
Before I hand over to Stu to finish the presentation, I'd like to step you through Slide 8. It's pleasing to see our improving return on capital employed, which has been a focus since the merger in FY '21. We are confident this will continue to grow over the near term with stronger production forecast in the second half of this financial year as well as the commissioning of the expanded KCGM mill.
This reflects progress on our multi-year strategy and focus on allocating shareholder funds to generate superior returns. It also highlights the strength of our first half underlying earnings before interest and tax, which is up 47% from the prior year to $1.1 billion. Thank you. I'll now hand back to Stu.
Thanks, Ryan. Turning to Slide 9. We're nearing completion of the 3-year build for our KCGM mill expansion, which remains on track for commissioning early FY '27. KCGM is positioning the business for a significant uplift in cash generation and return on capital employed from FY '27. This enhanced cash flow outlook strengthens our ability to deliver attractive returns on investment, supports capital management and allows us to advance further growth options in the portfolio.
At the January quarterly call, we announced an increase to the project's total capital investment to $1.65 billion to $1.69 billion, reflecting a lower-than-planned rate of productivity and the addition of labor to keep the project on schedule. I'm pleased to report that we are seeing benefits to this additional labor at the end of January, and the project build was 86% complete on schedule. As we near the final stages to commissioning, labor levels will reduce.
Turning to Slide 10. We continue to advance the Hemi Development Project in a disciplined manner. The state and federal permits continue to progress, which will then enable secondary approvals to be sought. I'd like to remind everyone that both primary and secondary approvals are required prior to early works commencing. And given some of that uncertainty and things out of our control, the approval of timing, we now expect final investment decision to be sometime during FY '27.
With an estimated 2.5-year build, this corresponds to first gold being forecast for FY '30 at the earliest. This timing also allows our internal project team to smoothly transition following the completion of the KCGM expansion to focus on Hemi. Further, it provides time for our balance sheet to strengthen from the uplift of free cash flow at KCGM.
Now to Slide 11. Slide 11 reiterates our revised FY '26 guidance as disclosed on the 22nd of January. We have also provided financial guidance at the bottom of the slide in green to reflect first half FY '26 actuals.
To Slide 12. Northern Star's exploration program remains a highly attractive approach to value creation to support our purpose to deliver superior shareholder returns. And since March '22, our average cost of resource addition is a compelling $37 an ounce.
We are in the enviable position where we have over 70 million ounces of mineral resources and 22 million ounces of ore reserves, excluding Hemi. This corresponds to over a 10-year reserve-backed production profile. And in May, we look forward to including the Hemi mineral resource and ore reserves into our group's annual statement.
And finally, on Slide 13, our business is set for a structural uplift in portfolio quality over the coming years. The company cash flow is forecast to grow significantly with increased production, lower costs and lowering CapEx over the coming years. We are confident that our return on capital employed will increase as we bring on projects that are long life and low cost while improving stability and reliability of the assets in our portfolio today.
Our balance sheet is strong and of investment-grade quality. We continue to review the portfolio to sustain high-margin production. Now that concludes the formal part of our presentation, and I'd now like to hand back to the moderator for Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Daniel Morgan with Barrenjoey.
2. Question Answer
Just on Hemi and approvals, can you just expand on -- I know approvals are an issue across the industry and the time lines tend to extend. But what are the major works that are outstanding on the approvals front? What are the major risks to the time line? And it appears that you are flagging that this is taking a little bit longer than expected, and it's just you're flagging that FID is going to potentially move back further into FY '27.
Yes. Thanks, Dan. I guess the final investment decision, we don't want to rush. We need adequate time to consider that. So we're really anticipating the timing and to reprice the capital, put that into the business case to present and consider. On the primary approvals, so state, we expect essentially this quarter, the submissions have been in the public comments being sought and returns of those -- that information for the regulators is there.
The primary approvals on the federal EPBC, again, expecting that to be published for public comment soon. It will be a 4-week public comment period, and then there'll be iterations of request for information back and forth between the regulators. So we don't really control that time frame. The processes have those time locks that you enter into. So again, we expect that during this year, ideally this financial year, but we can't be certain on that process. And history has told us things do slip they don't go quicker.
The secondary approvals around the dewatering and other clearances that we're working on. Again, we expect and plan for those things to occur this calendar year. And therefore, we just want that time to prudently go through and present that case to the Board. I think the couple of things I've said, which we would like to do, obviously, once the approvals and the timing is clear to us, we reprice the capital.
That's what goes in with some pretty hard firm all-encompassing numbers into the financial case that is considered by our Board. And then ideally, that's subsequent to the KCGM commissioning. So learnings from KCGM can go across to Hemi and the cash flow generation from Hemi is generating to fund organically the growth of KCGM funds Hemi.
And do you anticipate a delay between like -- well, KCGM coming on, the mill expansion and then the FID, like is there going to be a period of time? Do you anticipate of, say, 6 months or more where the business has the opportunity to generate significant free cash flow from the KCGM expansion? And then the second part of that question is just what would the business do with that period of cash harvest?
I think that the 2 will occur. The timing -- the balance sheet is already healthy net cash and that will grow so that we're not concerned around the funding aspects of Hemi or the profile of its spend. We're certainly not concerned around the considerations around hedging and those types of things we've spoken about that we needed to do for KCGM years ago.
I agree that if there was a period of 6 months where KCGM is on full noise and we haven't been investing in Hemi, there's some surplus cash there. So all those capital management concepts will be considered by our Board, including all the usual aspects that we consider from time to time.
And just last question, still on Hemi. You stated resources and reserves are going to be included in the update in May '26, which is from a Northern Star perspective. Can you just talk through what conceptual changes from De Grey we might expect, i.e., could it benefit from more drilling that you've undertaken, a potential change to the gold price assumption? Or might there be more conservatism around mining shapes and the fact that you're actually going to be delivering an operational project rather than a concept?
I think a blend of everything there, Dan. We certainly will adjust gold price across the group, reflecting where our costs are and where the spot is. It will still be modest. There'll still be a lot of headroom to spot prices and long-term forecasts. We probably have stricter views on mining shapes and scrutiny, wall angles, all those things on the resource. So certainly be a stricter cut on some of the designs.
There has been some infill drilling occurring, which is really around the classifications and confidence of the resources there. So that's what we have been doing in recent months. So a blend of all that, pluses and minuses. We're trying to make this as bulletproof as we can for the consideration for entry into FID.
The next question is from Matthew Frydman with MST Financial.
Can I ask a question on Slide 9 there where you've reaffirmed some guidance you've given previously on what KCGM looks like post the expansion and the ramp-up. Maybe just starting with the FY '27 range, 750,000 to 800,000 ounces. That seems like a pretty narrow range given obviously some uncertainties around commissioning and the cutover period and all that sort of stuff.
Is it right to think that the -- I suppose, the marginal tonne of feed into KCGM in FY '27 is going to be low-grade stockpiles. And so therefore, that the actual production impact from some of those risk factors like the exact timing of the cutover or the pace of the ramp-up isn't as significant?
Or I guess to put the question another way, is the real driver of your production in FY '27 and over the medium term at KCGM more about the high-grade material from the pit and the mining sequence, which is ultimately why you're comfortable with that fairly narrow range. I hope that is sort of a clear question.
Yes, it is. The -- yes, the outlook is -- it's narrow for the asset. I appreciate that. The concept is that the best grade goes in first and that if there's any throughput reduction either through later commissioning and/or greater planned or unplanned downtime throughout the year and 23 million tonnes wasn't met that the last 1 million tonnes is that 0.6 low-grade stockpile. So the incremental grade incremental ounces are minimal.
And then any of the main primary Golden Pike higher-grade material plus the underground Fimiston, Charlotte material is milled that goes first. And then that's the buffer and thinking. We'll obviously update FY '27 guidance later this -- or end of this financial year such that we've got delivery schedules, planned, stockpiles as we have -- there's 82 million ounces stockpiled on the ROM there in the last month.
That gives us the greater confidence of how narrow that band could be. But you're right in saying it's less about the overall throughput. That's more a sign of the confidence that the build is correct as opposed to the grade going into it.
Okay. Got it. And then I guess in that vein is -- halfway through the quarter, is there any more info that you can give us in terms of how that grade performance is coming out of the pit. Ultimately, what the bottom of the pit looks like now that it's fully destacked, et cetera? Any sort of incremental update since the quarterly would be appreciated.
Yes. We believe we're still pulling that sort of 1.8-gram material high grade out of the Golden Pike North. As I said, we've got a large stockpile of that material on the ROM in front of the mill. It's been the mill that's held us up with that unplanned disruptions. So really, it's a game of just keeping that managed along until the cutover. But yes, the mining volumes, and we've had some record tonnage movements over the period.
So it's been great to see not just ore but ore and waste in that fleet being very efficient. There's about 8 million tonnes moved in January, which again is well above the rate that we forecast there. So very happy with the mining activity. And the grade, we always -- until it goes through the mill intensity into a gold bar, that's the element we -- it's all theory until it goes through based on that drilling.
The next question is from Adam Baker with Macquarie.
Just firstly, on dividends. It looks like it's around 33% of cash earnings for the first half. Was this just a driver from your considerations of expected stronger second half? Or -- just keen to hear your thoughts on why you elected to go above that range for the first half?
Yes. Thanks, Adam. Look, we look at it on a full year basis. So we're aware of where it sits against policy in the half. But again, given we had a very strong second half forecast and outlook, we believe that we'd stay within that band and policy over the full year. We'll obviously consider that on the full year results, but we appreciate it departs from that in the midpoint.
And just secondly, looking to the uplift in free cash flow expected in the second half and with heavy being pushed out furthermore. Just wondering if you've given any thoughts to pre-delivering into your hedge book similar to what some of your peers have done, maybe some of those longer-dated hedges in FY '28 to get unencumbered free cash flow earlier on in the piece.
Yes. Look, Adam, it's been a consideration. I think what I'd say is we want to be flexible to that. It's probably unlikely. Any additional cash flow, we'll consider it. We've been thinking about it, but it's probably unlikely at this stage.
The next question is from Alex Barkley with RBC.
Quick one on the upcoming resource update. Is there likely to be any impact from the KCGM expansion lifting the mill and lowering your cost base? Does that bring new ounces to life? Or is that maybe going to be seen in later iterations of your resource updates?
I think it will be in later iterations. We'll absolutely -- we kind of look at understanding that cutoff grade of material that's coming out currently as waste or mineralized waste out of the pit. You appreciate that the stockpile is 0.6, there's nearly 3 million ounces sitting in low-grade stockpiles of 0.6 grams per tonne, taking rehandle costs and the value of gold today, 0.5 coming up in the back of a truck out of the pit could be financially better than that stockpile rehandled and milled.
So that's fascinating when you look at the overall mill cost. It's going to be -- the milling cost is essentially 0.1 of a gram. So if that's already been moved, it's waste, it's in the back of a truck, it's moving to the surface. It could go direct tip into the crusher into the mill and be very economic. So yes, 0.35 starts to really produce a significant margin out of the pit, which today may be called waste, but in the future, it could be ore.
We're not changing that into the resource at the moment. But I think over the future years, it will be pretty important to look at what the overall ounces are. Appreciating all-in sustaining costs lift, so you start bringing that low-grade material in. So we've got to be quite sensitive to that.
The next question is from Hugo Nicolaci with Goldman Sachs.
First one for me, just are you able to provide any update in terms of the grade reconciliation work at some of the Yandal mines? And maybe any commentary there on how we should think about the medium-term mine plan relative to the existing reserve grades?
Yes. So the areas for Yandal, I think one of the concerns was the Orelia open pit reconciling. We're getting a lot of that material coming down into the feed of reconciling well. It's about 1.4 grams. There's about 215,000 ounces remaining. So it's only less than 2 years of feed contribution. So that will be something that we'll keep a close eye on.
But at the moment, yes, pretty pleased with what's coming out of Wonder underground, what's coming out of the TBO underground and obviously, Orelia's contribution to it. So yes, 1.3 to 1.6 has been the Bannockburn that's also going to be a feed in the future. We're doing all the waste stripping in that at the moment. That will start to be a better grade than the current sources for the Thunderbox.
In the north at Jundee, there's new mines being developed and opened at Griffin Cook (sic) [ Cook-Griffin]. So once they start to come into the feed, we'll get greater feel on the reconciliations. And then the paste plant that's being commissioned allows us to get back into some of those secondary tertiary stopes that are the pillars from the higher grade at the upper levels. That will help us as well start to lift overall average grades at Jundee.
And then just maybe one for Ryan. You noted earlier in your piece that the balance sheet strength allows you to fund opportunities that may arise. Should we interpret that as organic and operational improvement opportunities? Or are you perhaps signaling that Northern Star is open to further acquisitions?
No, I think the former, Hugo. We've got plenty on our plate. We're focused on delivering the mill expansion, heavy will be upon us. So plenty on our plate, looking to get the best return for our capital deployed.
Fantastic. So that might be the case, but just worth clarifying. And then last one for me. Has there been any progress in considering either some of the portfolio rationalization you've previously talked to or maybe the ability to bring some of that regional material into the expanded KCGM?
You're talking divestments, sorry, Hugo?
Yes, both sort of divestments or maybe bringing some of the higher-grade mines that you have in the region into the KCGM and displacing some of that low-grade stockpile feed?
Yes. Look, we certainly see that in the medium- to long-term benefit, things like Hercules, Red Hill, et cetera. We'd be pleased to see how that could overall improve the ounce profile for KCGM. I think we want to -- before we run here, really get it commissioned, get it bedded in and delivering growth. I think it was as per Slide 9, those step-ups in production from that new plant from the KCGM sources before we cloud it with some of the regional stuff.
There's still quite a bit of an approval time frame on some of those additional feeds regionally. Rationalization, I think over the years, we certainly are migrating towards these longer life, lower cost, higher-margin production centers, simplifying the business. We've always done it. You'll see subsequent to the half year, we sold our interest in the Central Tanami joint venture for $50 million. You see us regularly doing this over time anyway. So that's probably a natural course of our business.
There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Tonkin for closing remarks.
Great. Thank you so much for joining us on the call today, and I appreciate your interest in our company on what is a busy day. Have a good day. Thank you.
This does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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Northern Star Resources — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Northern Star Resources — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Northern Star December 2025 Quarterly Results Call. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Stuart Tonkin, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. With me on the call is the Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Gurner; and Chief Operating Officer, Simon Jessop. As previously announced in the December quarter, gold sold totaled 348,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of AUD 2,937 per ounce.
A number of one-off operational events across our assets resulted in this softer performance and required us to revise FY '26 production and cost guidance. With these events behind us, our team remains firmly focused on driving productivity improvements and strengthening cost discipline to deliver a stronger second half for our shareholders. Our FY '26 outlook provides revised guidance of 1.6 million to 1.7 million ounces of gold sold at an all-in sustaining cost of $2,600 to $2,800 an ounce.
Today, we also provide further detail for production and ACE guidance by production center. In addition, we have updated our capital expenditure forecast across the portfolio. Operational growth capital guidance remains unchanged at $1.14 billion to $1.2 billion. KCGM's growth in capital expenditure in FY '26 consists of several projects designed to prepare the operation for commissioning of the newly expanded mill from FY '27.
And 2 aspects, which I'd like to highlight are the KCGM mill expansion project FY '26 capital expenditure is now expected to be in the range of $640 million to $660 million, and this reflects targeted increases in labor to ensure the commissioning in early FY '27. Also, the KCGM tailings dam activity is ahead of schedule with FY '26 spend now expected to be to be $240 million to $260 million.
While FY '27 forecast spend is lighter at $100 million to $120 million, which this represents approximately 10% reduced cost for the overall tailings dam project. And at Hemi, forecast spend is $165 million to $175 million, reflecting more optimization of engineering and design work there. Northern Star continues to work closely with state and federal regulators, key stakeholders and the broader Pilbara community. With gold price now exceeding AUD 7,000 an ounce, is an outstanding time to be producing and discovering gold in stable low-risk jurisdictions of Western Australia and Alaska.
Our balance sheet remains in a net cash position and as our hedge book decreases, our growing exposure to spot gold, coupled with increasing production, positions us for a very strong increase in cash flows going forward.
I'd now like to hand over to Simon Jessop, our Chief Operating Officer, to discuss our operational highlights.
Thank you, Stu, and good morning. The Calgary production center delivered a lower-than-expected quarter driven by 2 main issues. The first issue was the previously announced partial suspension of mining at our Skogul operation. A new escape way was mined and installed over 9 weeks. -- mining and call ops from mid-December has returned to normal operations.
The second major issue was a lower-than-expected processing outcome at KCGM. The mill underperformed all quarter on throughput volume both rate and run time with the primary crusher failing in December. Since the fifth of January, the crushing circuit has performed in line with normal expectations and we have crushed over 700,000 tonnes in 20 days versus December's full month crushing performance of 600,000 tonnes.
KCGM's total mining performance was an outstanding result with 207,000 ounces mined in the quarter, a new record for the site and a Northern Star Resources ownership. Open pit total material movement was $22 million for the December quarter and $45 million for the first half at the top of the 80 million to 90 million tonne annual guidance range.
The open pit for Q2 mined 163,000 ounces at 1.5 grams per tonne, with Golden Pope's contribution of 117,000 ounces at 1.7 grams per tonne. The KCGM underground operation developed 8.7 kilometers for the quarter and mined 819,000 tonnes of ore. For the first half, the underground ore mined was 1.55 million tonnes above the annualized target of 3 million tonnes per annum.
Due to the processing throughput issues, KCGM finished the quarter end with 1.3 million tonnes at 1.9 grams per tonne and 81,000 ounces of high-grade ore on the ROM pad. CEO performed -- sorry, Karastan performed in line with expectations for the quarter and the half. Let me close on the Calgary production center by again sharing that the KCGM mill expansion continued well over the Christmas, New Year period with a workforce of around 350 people. The project has ramped back up to 800-plus personnel and for the remaining 6 months for final is on construction and transition into commissioning and ramp-up planning. With the project remaining on time for an early FY '27 ramp.
Turning to our yen or production center, both Jundee and Thunderbox experienced a challenging quarter and first half. At Jundee, the previously announced localized structural failure of the crushing circuit works have progressed well. It has taken longer than it, but it has taken longer than anticipated. The coarse ore stockpile tunnel has been excavated, rebuilt and reburried with wrong pad loaders feeding the bin again as normal.
The full completion of the tunnel works is on track to be restored by mid-February. The Jundee team has actioned these works safely and professionally for an extremely large job. The Jundee airstrip is also less than 2 weeks away from its first flight and remains on track for flight savings and less rain interruptions going forward. At Thunderbox, 2 issues prevailed for the quarter. The first one, reduced throughput due to tank issues, which also impacted recovery by 5%.
Less mined ore from Aurelia and the haulage of the high-grade ore to the mill. On the processing impacts, all tanks were back in operation at the quarter end with rectifications planned for H2, which will see us cycle through the 7 tanks. Secondly, on Aurelia, the resource is not performing as modeled in mined in the high-grade areas of the ore body. We have already reduced the mining fleet from 7 trucks to 11 trucks in order to manage the required mining practice changes, improved mining and cost efficiencies.
The Arena open pit strip ratio reduces from here on in. Aurelia has an estimated life of 21 months and will generate 215,000 ounces at 1.4 grams per tonne. Meanwhile, open pit mining at Bank burn ramped up significantly with first ore being stockpiled ahead of milling in H2, providing another ore source close to the Thunderbox mill.
Finally, turning our attention to lower gold sales was impacted by lower head grade of approximately 0.5 to 1 gram per tonne due to a combination of stock dilution and ore loss. Volume of ore was also approximately 30,000 tonnes less due to [ East ] span constraints on scheduled high-grade areas of the ore body.
And we've also lost about 3 days in December due to extremely cold temperatures below 40 degrees Celsius. Early in January, we have seen an improvement in mine grades above 6 grams per tonne and an increase in stope ore volumes. Processing performance for Q2 was very good, with availability averaging 92% year-to-date.
The recovery was 86% during the quarter, 5% higher than expected. Development continued to improve at Pogo with 5.2 kilometers achieved for the quarter, corresponding to a monthly average of 1,731 meters a month. The quarterly performance on Gold sold was impacted by a number of significant events across the portfolio, which has resulted in lowering our annual gold guidance between 1.6 million and 1.7 million ounces.
We are in a much stronger position as we enter the second half of the year. KCGM and South Kalgoorlie operations have returned to normal. Jundee has some outstanding issues that are expected to be resolved during this quarter. and Thunder boxes in improved shape and at Pogo, we are seeing the December improved head growth continue into January. I would now like to pass to Ryan, our Chief Financial Officer, to discuss the financials.
Thanks, Simon. Good morning all. As demonstrated in today's quarterly results, the company remains in a great financial position. Our balance sheet remains strong as set out in Table 4 on Page 10 with cash and bullion of $1.18 billion, and we remain in a net cash position of $293 million at 31 December.
The company has recorded strong cash earnings for the first half of FY '26, which is estimated to be in the range of $1.06 billion to $1.11 billion. A reminder that our dividend policy is based on 20% to 30% of cash earnings. Although Q2 was a challenging quarter, all 3 production centers generated positive net mine cash flow with to capital and exploration fully funded.
Figure 8 on Page 11 sets out the company's cash and bullion movement for the quarter. the company recording $738 million of operating cash flow, which included the semiannual coupon payment on the notes of USD 18 million, approximately $30 million annual insurance premiums. Additionally, during the quarter, the company paid $370 million of income tax being the first half tax payments of $437 million, lower than the first half cash tax guidance.
Major operational growth or capital investments include -- our KCGM open pit development at great Boulder and underground development at Simeon and Mt Charlotte, which will enable us to lead production over the coming years and its Thunderbox operations open pit development at a relevance.
In respect of the KCGM growth project, $180 million was invested during the quarter with major progress in structural and mechanical installation, including SAG and ball mill installation progress. Electrical and piping installation is advancing with final construction fit-outs to follow throughout the second half. The project remains on track for commissioning early FY '27.
And our Hami project, $20 million was spent advancing process plant design, securing long-lead-time items and progressing on nonproprocessing infrastructure. On other financial matters, T-2 group all-in sustaining costs included approximately $20 million of additional costs associated with the disruption events across Jundee cooperations and KCGM during the quarter. Half 1 depreciation and amortization is at the top end of the guided range of $8.75 to $9.75 around and is expected to lower over the second half the forecast increase in production.
Noncash inventory charges for the group in the December quarter are a credit of $93 million, driven by lower grade stockpile build and higher ore stocks at KCGM and stockpile build at Thunderbox. From a tax perspective, the update to second half production, we lowered our second half group cash tax forecast to $230 million to $270 million.
No change to our estimate quantum or timing for landholder duty for the degrade and Saracen transactions. And the company continues to unwind its hedging commitments with 158,000 ounces delivered during the quarter. At 31 December total commitments equaled 1.1 million ounces at an average price just over $3,300 per ounce.
I'll now hand pass back to the moderator for the Q&A session. Thank you.
; [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Levi Spry from UBS.
2. Question Answer
A Stuart Team. A couple of questions, I guess, on the CapEx, KCGM and then [indiscernible]. Just so I understand the increase in CapEx at the mill expansion. Is that about more people? Is it about better people? Or is it about paying more, just so we understand, I guess, where the industry is at?
Yes. Thanks, Liv. Look, it's targeted and deliberate and it's to ensure we meet the commissioning timing of that FY '27. So it's more people. And it's recognizing, I guess, the productivity we've got out of the team that are there today and is not saying they're good or bad. It's just saying when everyone's working in that congested space. We haven't made the progress on some of those things.
So we were targeting around 600 people throughout the build. Simon just spoke to, we retained a [ 3350 ] over Christmas, which would normally be in a shutdown. And then we've also run some back shift his throughout the last 6 months and also we've come up with 800 head count working on that project. So it's targeted delivery. It's at a cost. Obviously, there's an uplift of about $110 million throughout this year, of which a large part of it is being spent in the first half.
So there's a second half kind of tail out of all the electrical and cable runs. But really, it's important that we meet the schedule on time and get that commissioning and get the cash box working.
Yes. Got it. detail. And so could we have a little bit more, I guess, on that guard chart -- so what is actually involved between, I guess, now and activity specifically? And then I guess, what is required to hit 23 million tonnes in 2027?
Yes. So really, the contrary is above that. We talk about in the the bullet points there. is on Page 5 of the quarterly. Obviously, 90% of all the structural steel and until the mechanical installation is complete. So we're back to the timing in electrical cable runs and sort of testing and powering those things up.
Obviously, there's an element of putting it all in place before you do any of that live testing and it's really base the final company of all the pipe work. So -- we're well through the bulk of it, and it's in the right order. Nothing, I guess, is behind, but we're recognizing the work ahead just needs that additional waiver, which we're working with the contractors to source, and we were doing just prior to Christmas.
So December, we started to increase numbers. We continue with what we can call it a skeleton crew, we certainly 350 people throughout the Christmas period. But really, it gets down to that final tie-in all the pipe work, pressure testing the cables, dead testing cables until we're ready to energize things. So yes, it's -- it will be ready to power up in June. The question is whether we want the disruption.
In the back half of June, typically, you won't get the extra gold sold, because it all has to come through the float circuit now through concentrates, et cetera. So we may be bringing up in parallel. But ideally, in July, the mill is running. 23 llion tonnes represents a 27 million tonne per annum plant turned on and then deliberately turned off to do retalking of bolts and just visual inspections on wear rates, et cetera. that's deliberate planned downtime throughout the year, which day es are from 27% to 23%. But when it's running, it will run at the 27 million tonnes per annum. I think that answered part of your question.
Yes, that's good. And just 1 more on Hame. So like what permitting is still a pretty complicated subject for us. Can you just give us a bit more detail around what stages up to now, what happens next?
Yes. So essentially, you got approval is still going through their processes. This financial year, we're expecting there's no real way to fast track those processes with the regulators, and it's prudent that they take the time. In parallel to that, we're working on the water trials and dewatering testing and that's the engagement we're having the traditional owners and the like presently, but all those things are progressing as normal.
It's very -- as you imagine, weather-wise, it's the hot season. So laying pipe and doing works is a bit of a derated activity as we used to do in the Northern Territory. Northern Pilbara gets been offered on the year. So there's some of that activity, we just sensibly laying pipe and getting the balls ready for that throughout these months. But fundamentally, we're working towards the end of this calendar year to be in a position to be putting numbers together for it.
The extra expenditure is about the optimization work, just continually testing the flow sheet and making sure we've got options and that when we put the data into the Fed papers that we've thoroughly thought of all those combinations. And 1 of the things you just keep looking at, you keep finding options and can find better work. So they were using the time wisely in that regard.
Our next question comes from Ben Lyons from Jaden Securities.
Thank you to you, Simon. I just wanted to revisit the underlying reasons behind the recent changes to production, all-in sustaining costs and I guess, also CapEx guidance for consecutive downgrades over the past couple of weeks. And maybe at the same time advocates some greater disclosure from the company as well. So 1 of the reasons, for example, that was given that the production downgrade was the underperformance of funder which has now sort of pitched the 250,000 ounce mining center rather than a 300,000 ounce mining center.
And specifically, those lower grades you're seeing originate from you really open pit, so I was just waiting for the 600-page resource and reserve report. And I just can't find anywhere like a simple tonnage, grade and strip ratio outline for those key ore sources like really like Bannockburn for, et cetera. And the phone goes for like Caridad, Jundee, like the actual ore sources that sit behind these mining centers.
So the comments made by Simon in his introductory remarks are helpful, gives us some of the pieces, but just like to have a really basic outline of the ore sources that sit behind the actual mining centers or at the very least a detailed Investor Day, where we can do some deep dives on these assets as well. I just think that would be helpful to better assess the predictability of this business and the reliability of the forecasting that we received just a bunch of numbers from you guys at the office level, just to go deep on these assets. So am I missing anything in that 600-page resource report that sort of helped with these sort of basic metrics?
No, but I'll take that as a comment about the question, Ben.
Yes. Okay, cool. Okay. The question then you've got tescrutiny on your continuous disclosure obligations. Why wasn't the crush a failure at KCGM immediately disclosed to the market. I would have thought that was a significant event in itself. To paraphrase your response to the ASX, it was basically -- we didn't get the data until the first of January. How regular are you updates from site to the head office in Sobi. I would have thought that you're getting daily updates on simple metrics like production and sales, but -- is it weekly? Is it monthly?
I'm sure it's not quarterly sure, you didn't have to wait until the first of January to now that you're going to downgrade?
Ben, there's a very comprehensive response to an aware letter from ASX. A very simple one-page disclosure around production on the second of January and a very thorough response to the ASX in regards to the query. I think that addresses it.
Yes. Okay. I mean I've read it several times but from my perspective, I don't think it's satisfactory like boleto get real-time data on sales at least weekly or monthly, not quarterly, but happy to go and have another. Thanks.
Your next question comes from Hugo Nicolaci from Goldman Sachs.
Ryan, just one on the updated cost guidance. Look, obviously, good to see the revised cost coming in line with the prior top end considering the gold price increases and royalties associated with that. But if I break that down nominally, you've effectively tightened the range and the midpoint of cost is pretty much unchanged despite highlighting earlier this month that the operational impact. So we're going to have a number of cost impacts. So I guess the question is, what operational and sustaining costs if you'd be able to defer into next year to be able to keep that cost guidance flat?
Yes. Thanks, Hugo. I think the key thing is that the one-offs and the events are behind us, and we know the impacts and effects of those events, they'll finite, they're complete. Obviously, we've disclosed on some of the continuing things are in the week 1 of January that have on us now.
So really, this is the reset and the view of the forecasting of where the sites are operating at and the cost base has allowed us to narrow the guidance range because we've got 6 months ahead, not 12. So that's really where that is at. It's a much stronger second half. If you really look at the what the second half will deliver a significant step up from quarter 3 in production.
You're seeing our realized gold price, it's improving, but it's still a long way off spot because of the hedges, which are which are unwinding rapidly and then obviously delivering into a higher spot. So coupled with increasing production, the gold sales being the denominator or all-in sustaining cost the exposure to that spot by the cash generation over the next 2 quarters and the run rate exiting this financial year for another structural change of Fimiston being turned on, positions the company into a very strong position.
So yes, it is future telling it's forecasting, it's looking at what's in front of us. We would ask people to isolate quarter 3. We have provided a very detailed information around the events that were unforeseen or some are out of our control, some are, we're risk balanced around maintenance events. And ultimately, they have been addressed. The team have done an absolutely fantastic job managing through that period and working on those items.
And that gives us the confidence to place the forecast. On the full year, yes, there's a step-up in cost, there's a step down in production. But when you look at the second half run rate, it's a very, very strong healthy business in that regard. And it can't undo what's happened in the first half, but ultimately, we've got a very confident outlook.
Obviously, taking sort of first half and the apatinimpacts as they were, but dig into that further, I mean, your ACE range is sort of now $4.4 billion to $4.5 billion for the year. It was $4.25 billion to $4.6 billion. you've highlighted $40 an ounce of that or roughly $64 million at the low end is from royalties. So where some of those other cost savings come from though, are sort of looking forward? And should we expect those costs to end up into FY '27
I think it's Ryan, Hugo. I think the costs are there, obviously, in the immediate term, all costs are fixed. So you're right to do the math on the overall, I guess, checks written in the business. What we're saying is as Simon was talking to when he spoke, a lot of these disruption issues that cause production issues are behind us.
We're confident in the grade outlook at Pogo, Jundee, Simon spoke about the high-grade material sitting on the road KCGM, -- you've seen the grade list there. So -- and then also the throughput confidence in the second half. So they all contribute to keeping it aligned and narrowing that that cost range even with those, as you say, expected royalties. We're confident that in that range, '26 to '28 land us with our lower production profile.
Any discretionary spend will be shaft and pushed because it's not only is it dollar millions, but as far as activity and distraction, ensuring that the team have a very clear simplified sort of activity list. That's what we'll do. So does that go push away into FY '27, we'll assess it at the time. We'll assess the balance of risk around pain versus unplanned maintenance, et cetera. there were items that were budgeted that we will just strike off the list that likely will not get spent in the second half.
Yes. Got it. I guess the question was what are those items and how much of that spend. But maybe I'll pick that up later. Next one, just around the upward revision of HamiCapEx. You've called out a more detailed review of engineering design work. So why CapEx this year is $25 million higher, but studies were originally to support an FID by the end of FY '26.
So is that just a bring forward of detailed engineering works that you would have otherwise had to do? Or were those not initially detailed enough for an FID timing as originally planned? And I guess, how should we consider that in the context of, I think, market expectations for Hemy CapEx now sort of $2.5 billion. And should we continue to expect maybe there's a bit of creep there?
Look, I would say reset on the capital, the overall CapEx number, saying if we're spending extra this year, it comes off the overall CapEx number. It's certainly work that's progressing. It would be required, and we would be doing -- but I'd also consider work that may have been spent there would consider, okay, that's redundant, and we replaced a bit new study work that's got an improved operating outcome or an improved flow sheet outcome.
So I think we've got to be a bit careful of saying extra money spent this year comes off the total. There are certainly items that were long lead items invested in spend forward that we'd also say perhaps we'll resell and repurpose and replace with larger simpler kits. So that's -- that's been something we've done with the time. That will all come in a final pit paper on explanations in that regard.
There's not material structural changes to the overall flow sheet. What we've looked at is synergies with the rest of our operations to have common parts, common spares, which wasn't considered when that's a stand-alone asset in a single asset company. We have looked at it through the lens of Fimiston mill expansion. Some items that could replicate, save, on the engineering because you've already done it, but we've actually got to spend for the parts to get common commonality, in sole derisk is in the future running to sort of sister plants.
Your next question comes from Matthew Frydman from MST Financial.
Stuart and a couple of questions from me, please. Maybe firstly, can I take the thrust of Ben Lines' comments and maybe turn it into a question that hopefully we can actually answer on this call. In the release, you say you've reduced CapEx spend at Pogo and Calgary and increased spend at and to support the regional hub strategy. Can I just ask what is the regional hub strategy at Yandal?
Can you summarize it in terms of production ounces, life unit cost and how much capital needs to be spent to deliver it because I'm not really clear on any of those things, and it sounds like maybe there's other analysts that aren't clear either. So that would be appreciated.
Okay, Matt. So there's a 3 million tonne per annum plant in the north called Jundee and there's a 6 million tonne for an implant in the South for Thunderbox. Higher grade ore will go to Jundee, lower grade ore will go to Thunderbox and you'll sit at around 300,000 ounces per annum. Thunderbox will set at around 250,000 ounces per annum. So the hub, which is called Gander will produce at about 550,000 ounces per annum.
That's different to the 600 we set we've articulated that 550 is probably the happy place that, that will be at. You might also late, we Jundee does 250 and Thunderbox does 300. But overall, that Yandell we're saying can operate at around 550, we've got the reserve statements. It's got all the trades and ore sources, panic burns, relies, Thunder, you've got all the data that sits behind that.
That's fundamentally what more than what any company is providing and giving to the materiality of what that asset provides for the group. As the key aspect of those assets, but we're not liking at the moment is the costs. So the aspect of the economies of scale from expanding Thunderbox was to materially improve the all-in sustaining costs as is the growth at Jundee was to keep the costs down.
And you can see the cost we handle in the quarter and the lower ounce profile are very high. So that's in our head to say, what's the overall outlook life. We've got to improve this to ensure that its contributions as it has been for a decade in our business, foundation asset. We can provide more view and color on what those can be. But we're still building new high-grade mines, and the development rates are still contributing towards that.
So pulling out a really up and talking about decimal points of grade of something that's not even providing 1/3 of the feed to Thunderbox for a number of years is immaterial. And I want to focus on that. It's immaterial in the...
I mean I didn't specify earlier and you've answered the question on -- in terms of ounces and life. But as you point out, I think probably the gap in understanding is really more around unit cost expectations and also I guess, the capital required to get there. So I suppose the question that probably the market has is what's the quantum of capital are you going to spend in order to get the cost to a certain point?
And I guess what does that look like? And I suppose we want that out load how do you make those investment decisions when it seems like we don't have a good visibility on what the target is around cost and total quantum of CapEx?
So we provided production and cost guidance on a nice basis in July. That's what we've done for a long time, and that's what we keep doing at agenda. We put in a base plan that's getting into the higher grade at Jundee, but you'll see some of the grade restore. All the commentary that sits around this asset shows the growth of under down South, giving better grade into Thunderbox as well as new Bankinter operation you're going through the stripping at the moment, getting to primary ore. Like the question you're not going to answer on a quarterly call test.
No, that's fine. I guess the theme there is that I appreciate that you guys give 1 year guidance, but clearly, the impact to the market's perception of the company from arguably some of these short-term disappointments from quarter-to-quarter. Potentially that impact is exacerbated because we don't have a multiyear sort of longer-term picture for some of these elements of the business. So obviously, anything you can do over time to just shown a light on that is appreciated. But I'll move on to that line of questioning.
Or you know that. But the point is in KCGM in the half 1, it's really, really changed and it's the mill throughput has really impacted the overall ability to deliver. All the other some of the small parts on a materiality threshold are negligible. The actual.
I agree to you 885 That's why I'm making the point that maybe you only give 1 your guidance is exacerbated.
Please let me finish this answer. Everyone needs to focus on that asset KCGM and there's 82,000 ounces sitting on the room of high-grade ore ready to put through that plant. And the plant -- the new expanded plant will be commissioned in less than 6 months' time. So if everyone wants to weave into smaller items across all the assets, we recognize that it was a poor quarter. We understand the elements that contributed to that. There were meaning and we understand what we've done to rectify it and what the outlook is going forward.
I pick up the frustration from the questions, and I'll pick up the frustration from investors or from analysts, who can't model this. Quarter 2 is behind us, and the second half outlook is strong, and we will work very hard to deliver that and where we position ourselves into FY '27 in an excellent position. So I just want to reinforce we're getting into minutia, which is behind us and doesn't matter on a materiality threshold.
So think about the things that make KCGM is a key asset -- that's where the focus and effort is today. It's not on the satellite small life short things that are also generating significant cash flow that are actually contributed towards spending the capital at our long life by margin assets.
Yes. apologize for cutting you off to you. I mean I would say that the Andhubis still going to be 1/3 of your business. So I'm not sure that characterized as Manisha, but anyway, thank you for your response.
The second question is just on the KCGM new expansion, I guess, increases to the capital guidance there. you talked through in some detail around where that's going and why it's important to, I guess, the schedule -- is there a risk there that, I guess, throwing more money and people doesn't really solve the productivity issue you're having? I mean you talked about how it is a fairly condensed space there that your teams are working in I guess what the question is why are you confident that spending more is the right approach versus just taking longer to complete the project?
So it doesn't solve the productivity issue. That's why you add heads. -- add head count because you can't can't achieve ever 600 people, so it's 800 at it. That's the answer of productivity and you're paying more to get the same thing done. That's why there's $110 million extra spend in this year to deliver that -- the most important part is the plant on getting all through it and step changing the asset's cost base and its revenue.
That time is of the essence with [ Cosan ], not capital sadly, at this point. It's not sensitive to capital. We don't likely spend $110 million, unnecessarily. We want to see this plant operating and starting to contribute.
Just add a little bit to that. So during the next -- really, the next 4 months is where we've got the peak banning. So we've ramped up as [ she ] said, above what was originally the plan and that sort of progression started during Q2 in terms of accelerating the work. We've got still many work fronts at the moment.
So we still have that opportunity to put those people in there 3, 4 months from now, those work fronts start to wind down. And we're very, very focused on the critical path, which is Stage 1, which is first ore into the new mill. So while we still got the opportunity, we've taken that and the project team has to put the extra people in there get the work actually completed.
And that's the picture right now, which gives us the ability to remain on schedule for FY '27, ready to go in sort of June. So if we didn't put those extra then, the work front start to dry up, and then it genuinely will be delayed. So the project is in really good shape. It's focused on Stage 1 and that is first ore into the mill. The Stage 2 is moving gig back down to KCGM. That can happen in the months after we're milling ore.
Your next question comes from Daniel Morgan from Barrenjoey.
So obviously, a key theme of the call has been throwing a lot more bodies at the project to keep it on schedule. I understand that makes sense given the gold price and the project you're trying to keep on schedule. But -- do you still expect that July turn on? I mean is the gun chart, I imagine the critical path, the turn on date, is it not shifting back? Is it not wise given recent guidance and market disclosures is not wise to maybe start to push market expectations of the schedule of the turn on back? Or is this the expectation that this extra budget will keep the schedule to July?
It's quarter 1. My expectation is early quarter 1, sales there will be parallel running up at the plant. This isn't about market expectations. This is about our disclosures had a 3-year build on time to the budget we're saying and overrun on that expenditure because we're growing more labor at it. We're not here trying to gain this, Dan. We're here explaining, where we're at into a 3-year build.
And as Simon has got the confidence in discussing as well, we're very, very pleased with the progress they've made. And we're working very closely the contract that it's constructing it and looking for any opportunity to get this done, not only on time but earlier. And part of that combined solution is around adding head count. And we don't just add it so they're standing around holding stop signs. There are people there doing productive work.
That's contributing towards that deadline. So yes, that's what we're working towards. It's pretty exciting. I think the team that got around the plant at bigger than dealers saw a massive step change year-on-year, if you went there again today, you'd say, well, why can't you turn it on now? That's what you visually see -- and it's no different than you're building a house, wait for your carpets and your fly screens. All the cabling, all the tiling, all the final elements of that. It looks like it's been finished, and it looks like it's sitting there doing nothing, but it's that fine or final finishing, we're sure that when we get it turned on, the quality is met and the work is done so that we don't have to bring it down or we don't have to have those lessons that we learned out of the Thunderbox expansion.
We endured 12 months of ups and downs and rectifying some of those things. We'd like to see all that addressed prior to turning and commissioning this on. So that's the way it's underway for the second half.
And I guess, obviously, there's a lot of focus on the call and obviously, concern about various aspects. But maybe pivoting and changing tack a little bit like just over the last 6 months or so, what is changing in the business that you can see that from a very positive sense, like what is something you'd like to invest is where there's been a change a foot or something that's getting better or be it exploration, be it a site? What is changing in the business in a positive sense that you could highlight to the market?
Yes. I mean I'd recognize the underperformance in share price against the peers, global majors, we acknowledge that. We acknowledge that there's reflection on short-term production misses -- cost misses, and we've been very clear on the events that have contributed to that and what we've done to rectify that.
Just look at the run rate of second half in its own right, very, very strong uplift in production. Look at the reducing hedge book and realized gold price that we're growing the exposure to spot. And the step change of the business as a KCGM mill expansion turns on in FY '27 and the uplift, again, step change in production profile for the group. They are the things that are psychoses to us that the opportunity for investors now to get any yet positioned, that's the confidence in the outlook.
And I see, to your point, people are focused on here and our concerns, they're looking at relativities. That creates the opportunity to understand the long-term value creation that all the stars doing.
Your next question comes from Milan Tomic from JPMorgan.
It's -- just a question on the permitting side of things. Can you provide maybe a little bit more detail as to how that process is progressing? Has there been any issues specific issues that are being flagged by the indigenous and Asian groups in that area? Or yes, just wondering, if you can give a bit more color as to any concerns that might have been raised so far?
No, no major concerns there. Milan. It's really the dewatering trial is something we've got to commence, which will likely be at the start of quarter 4. Ideally, we would have done -- started that in quarter 2. but there was a delay in getting all that infrastructure in place through the hot season.
So once that's in place, and we've got a plan that's acceptable, we'll commence that trial. It takes about 3 months, and that feedback loop goes into our Fiesta license for dewatering of the pits preproduction. So that's probably something that has slipped -- it doesn't affect the overall state and federal EPA approval licenses, which are continuing.
But ultimately, that's probably the operational part that we would have liked to have seen commenced presummer. And that's going to start March, April, likely we start for the modified scheme that we've negotiated. We're negotiating with traditional owners there.
Yes. And just in terms of the work that you're doing on optimization, any major changes regarding mine plan sequencing, et cetera, that you could share that's kind of been different from how that project was initially envisaged to be?
Yes, the scheduling. So what we're going to look at is First Gold Pool and that deadline, even though if there's a delayed timing of starting to understand okay, what impacts through to that. But the actual flow sheet generally, we've looked at lots of different scenarios and options and defaulted back to what that primary flow she is with the high-pressure grinding rolls at the start and to the SAG mills is still sound.
Resizing some of the gear mills, et cetera, is probably something we've done, the ability to expand later on a more simplified plant. But all the auto class and late already in trying to be built and long-lead items like that are constructed. So that's all sound. Mining sequence, again, just around water management, our borrower kits and getting that prepared. That's -- we've just got options and scenarios there as opposed to the 1 plan that previous owners had -- we just got a number of scenarios there that could go different paths to get to the same results. So that's just what the team is doing there, while the approvals are underway, iterating tera is what they do best as the engineers.
And maybe if I can just squeeze 1 more in on Jundee. To get it to 300,000 ounces, you have to get quite a sizable uptick in the grades compared to the last couple of quarters at least. Can you maybe just shed a bit of light at how do you -- how are you getting that increase in grades? Are you moving into a high grade part of the ore body? Or is there something else that we should be considering there?
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A mix of primarily the throughput is not Jundee. So yes, the average grade delivered to the plant needs to be there. It's been there before. We've certainly got low pockets that are there different grades and different mining sequences. We've just added a base plant, which allows us to go back up to the upper levels, regional high-grade areas and take those high-grade zones that were sterilized because they just open voids. There was no past in the mine in its history, 30 years.
It's never had any at factory, but we've got that base plant installed and starting to fill those voids. We can go back and take those high-grade pillars the upper levels. So there's areas like that, new Cook Griffin mining zones producing better grade. So all of those things contribute, but overall, it is a grade focus rather than a throughput of focus.
Your next question comes from Adam Baker from Macquarie.
Just 1 follow-up for me. Just on Hanmi. I met you noted that in May 2016, you're going to have the optimized resource and reserves. I'm just wondering is there anything that we could be saying to see a quantum change in the resources or the reserves noting changes like gold cost assumptions, et cetera. And likewise, for reserves around cutoff grade, et cetera. With your work integrating this into the Northern Star reserve and resources?
Yes. Thanks, Adam. Look, I won't preempt things with R&R, there's still a fair bit of work to occur in the coming months leading into that, but we're basically lease heavy Northstar view of radar with the group's R&R. I would say Hemi had a high gold price assumption in what was previously released. So we'll try and align with the group overall, where we set those gold prices for resources and reserves.
They're almost irrelevant in regard to where the current spot price is and watching what peers are doing in gold price assumptions around resource and reserves. But it does in turn reflect back to cutoff grades and how the overall picture valued and can you actually merge mold our pits together, take our saddles and make a bigger or big larger overall lower-grade resource economic.
That's what we've got to consider. But I would just say that we've probably got a stricter more scrutinized view around what's in and what's out. So if anything, a more robust scruitny your eyes on that resource is more likely than material growth. If you think about the drilling and the data that's occurring there, all we've really done recently is redirect some drills to do some treating. We haven't done any real growth drilling since we're taking control of that heavy region.
Thank you our next question comes from Mitch Ryan from Jefferies.
Stu, and team, you made a couple of comments with regards to Hemi. You called it a sister plant to KCGM, and you talked about taking the opportunity to resize mills. Can you -- does that potentially mean a change in the scope of mill size relative to previously disclosed on numbers? Can you -- can you help us understand that?
Correct. Ideally, things like the crusher, things like the mills ideally are identical to what we have at Fimiston and that's been currently our thinking -- there's already some mills purchased they're already sitting in a shared package stuff in or headline let's say the unloaded off the truck.
I look at those and say they'll do the job of a 10 million tonne per annum plant to get to a 15 million tonne per annum plant, I mean a third one. What I consider instead of doing that, having 2 large mills today that match Fimiston answers usually, yes. So be the sort of considerations we're doing to say, irrespective of earnings and hardware that's sitting there in a share, would we start again in, say, 2 large mills that match Fimiston, plus the logic of that.
In the scheme of reselling these things. There's options that are there in a scheme of redundant expenditure, you can repeat the costs because you haven't installed them and they're ready to freight. That's the type of thinking that if you're in a hurry to build the mill, they would have got built and then when you want to expand, you add a new mill. When we look at that now with the time, so well, let's just not go build something because we have to pass. Let's consider what we can do, if we had a clean sheet that's the example.
One is the crushing circuit, absolutely take the replicate design from Fimiston and say, is that something you could install here that's oversized matches parts, et cetera, as opposed to going through the -- something that's been designed specific for the throughput rate of hemi we go to something that is this is a plant to Fimiston -- that means if we have issues like Simon had in December.
At KCGM, we could be fast tracking the knowledge and the skills and the path across the business every 3 or 4 years would happen at 1 of those large crushing years.
Thank you -- there are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Tonkin for closing remarks.
All right. Thank you for joining us on the call today. And I appreciate the interest and it's been a busy day for everyone, but looking forward to a strong second half and growing from here. Appreciate it. Thank you --
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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Northern Star Resources — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Northern Star Resources — Northern Star Resources Limited, 2026 Guidance/Update Call, Jan 05, 2026
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Northern Star operational update. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to hand the conference over to Stuart Tonkin, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thanks for joining us on the call. With me today is our Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Gurner; and Chief Operating Officer, Simon Jessop.
On Friday, we provided an operational update on the back of a soft December quarter. And subsequently, we have revised down our annual production guidance to now 1.6 million to 1.7 million ounces from 1.7 million to 1.85 million ounces. The full year reduction has been necessary due to a number of isolated operational events late in the December quarter, which have largely now been rectified, and Simon will talk to these shortly. This positions the group to deliver second half production of 871,000 to 971,000 ounces.
We will be providing December quarter costs with the quarterly results published on Thursday, 22nd of January as well as any outlook to the full year cost guidance.
I'd like to reinforce our confidence in the underlying asset portfolio and thank our teams who worked to address the recent operational impacts promptly and safely.
Our long-term value creation strategy is sound, and we're excited at the prospects of commissioning the new Fimiston plant in 6 months' time, which will deliver a step-change in production and costs for the business.
I appreciate investors' understanding of the near-term volatility of a growing business, and we will continue to prudently manage risks and liberate opportunities for the company. We remain in a strong financial position currently with net cash and are comfortably delivering into our reducing hedge commitments.
We continue investing capital for the long term to increase production whilst improving cost profile to generate superior returns from our assets.
I'd now like to hand to Simon to cover the operations. Thank you.
Thank you, Stu. The Kalgoorlie Production Centre delivered a lower-than-expected quarter driven by 2 main issues. The first issue was the previously announced partial suspension of mining at our South Kalgoorlie operation. Post a significant rainfall event in October, a pit wall slip occurred, impeding the escapeway into the mine. A new escapeway was mined and installed over 9 weeks with normal mining resuming around mid-December. Kal Ops has since returned back to normal operations with a total sales impact of 10,000 ounces as previously disclosed.
The second main major issue was a lower-than-expected processing outcome at KCGM. The mill underperformed all quarter on throughput, volume, both run rate and time. The lack of throughput was primarily due to the Fimiston primary crusher faults impacting plant stability. This resulted in a shortfall of around 650,000 tonnes of throughput over Q2.
Due to the ongoing impacts from the crusher not performing, a major Q3 shutdown was brought forward into Q2 with multiple elements changed. This shutdown took over a week. And unfortunately, the crusher failed 12 hours later, resulting in another 2 weeks of downtime over the Christmas period up until Monday, the 5th of January, when recommissioning has started.
The primary crusher replacement similar to current works last occurred in February 2021 with a previous failure in August 2017. Due to the Christmas break, sourcing specialist labor to rebuild the unplanned crusher failure took longer than expected. This crusher is required as part of the expanded mill circuit.
KCGM mining performance was similar to that achieved in the first quarter. Open pit total material movement was 22 million tonnes for the December quarter and 45 million tonnes for the first half at the top of the 80 million to 90 million tonne annual guidance range. The open pit mined in Q2 alone unreconciled approximately 150,000 ounces with Golden Pike's contribution 110,000 ounces.
The KCGM underground operation developed 8.6 kilometers for the quarter and mined 780,000 tonnes of ore at an annualized run rate of 3 million tonnes per annum for unreconciled approximately 42,000 ounces in the quarter.
KCGM total mining achieved approximately 190,000 ounces mined for Q2 and due to processing throughput issues, finished the quarter end with 1.1 million tonnes at 1.9 grams per tonne for approximately 70,000 ounces on the ROM pad. CDO performed in line with expectations for the quarter and the half.
Let me close on the Kalgoorlie Production Centre by sharing that the KCGM mill expansion continued well over the Christmas period with a workforce of around 300 people working on the project. The project will ramp back up to 800-plus personnel working on the mill in January, and it remains on time for an early FY '27 ramp-up.
Turning to our Yandal Production Centre. Both Jundee and Thunderbox experienced a challenging quarter and first half. At Jundee, the previously announced localized structural failure of the crushing circuit works have progressed well, but it has taken longer than anticipated. The coarse stockpile tunnel has been all excavated with all materials on site to finalize the repairs. The impact to the quarter was around 170,000 tonnes of processing at 40 to 50 tonnes per hour throughput or around 15,000 ounces.
The crushing circuit is set to be restored to normal operations around mid-February. The Jundee team has action these worked safely and professionally for an extremely large job. The Jundee strip was also being upgraded over Q2, which had already commenced before the crushing circuit failure occurred, compounding the Jundee results with reduced operational time. The air strip project will be completed in late January with flight savings and less rain interruptions from the site going forward.
At Thunderbox, 2 issues prevailed for the quarter: one, reduced throughput due to tank issues, which also impacted recovery by 5%. Secondly, less mine grade from Orelia and the haulage of the high-grade ore to the mill. On processing impacts, all tanks were back in operation at quarter end with rectifications planned for H2, which will cycle through 7 tanks.
Secondly, on Orelia, the resource is not performing as modeled and mined in the high-grade areas of the ore body. We've already reduced the mining fleet from 17 trucks to 11 trucks in order to manage the required mining practice changes, improved mining and cost efficiencies and the fact that the strip ratio reduces from here on in. Orelia has an estimated life of around 21 months and will generate 215,000 ounces at 1.4 grams per tonne on the current forecast.
Meanwhile, open pit mining at Bannockburn ramped up significantly with first ore being stockpiled ahead of milling in H2, providing another ore source closer to the Thunderbox mill.
Finally, turning our attention to Pogo. At Pogo, the lower gold sales was impacted by lower head grade of approximately 0.5 to 1 gram per tonne due to a combination of stope dilution and ore loss. Volume of ore was also approximately 30,000 tonnes less due to some East Deeps fan constraints on scheduled high-grade ore and about 3 days lost in December due to extreme cold temperatures below minus 40 degrees Celsius.
Processing performance was very good at Pogo with availability averaging 92% year-to-date. Recovery was also 85.8% during the quarter, 5% higher than expected.
Development continued to improve at Pogo with 5.2 kilometers achieved for the quarter, corresponding to an average monthly run rate of 1,733 meters per month, above the 1,500-meter target.
The quarterly performance on gold sale was impacted by a number of significant events across the portfolio, which has resulted in lowering our annual guidance between 1.6 million and 1.7 million ounces. We are in a stronger position as we enter the second half of the year. KCGM and SKO have returned to normal operations. Jundee has some outstanding issues that are expected to be resolved during the quarter. Thunderbox is in improved shape, and we continue to work through the various factors that may be contributing to the lower-than-expected grade of Pogo.
I would now like to pass on to Ryan, our Chief Financial Officer, to discuss the financials.
Thanks, Simon. Notwithstanding the challenging operational quarter, the company remains in a great financial position entering the second half of financial year '26. At 31 December, the company's preliminary cash and bullion holdings are expected to be approximately $1.17 billion. And with the company's $1.5 billion credit facilities undrawn, total liquidity is approximately $2.7 billion.
Q2 will realize a negative free cash flow result driven primarily by the softer production outcome and a $250 million tax balancing payment for the FY '25 year, which was made during the December quarter as previously guided. Other cash outflows include annual insurance premiums and the semiannual coupon payment on the notes.
Despite the lower-than-planned sales during the quarter, the company comfortably delivered its hedging commitments as planned. The second half of FY '26, there are 330,000 ounces committed, which is comfortably within the forecast production outlook.
Finally, as outlined in the operational update, cost guidance at the group and production center level will be revised at the results call later this month following finalization of the quarterly results due to all-in sustaining cost per ounce will be higher than Q1 due to lower production and higher sustaining capital invested during the quarter. Year-to-date sustaining capital spend is tracking to plan.
I will now hand pass back to Ashley for the Q&A session. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] Your first question today comes from Daniel Morgan with Barrenjoey.
2. Question Answer
First question is just what is embedded in guidance for the remainder of the year for the Super Pit mill throughput? And what are your thoughts about the risks around achieving that?
Yes. Thanks, Dan. Look, we'll give the detailed asset-by-asset breakdowns, particularly for the second half at the quarterly. So that will be full transparency on the breakdown of each of those. I think risk really on KCGM is that mill throughput. Simon has spoken to the crushing circuit is now commissioned and rerunning from that shut. There's obviously a lag of a couple of weeks of gold in circuit through there. But pleasingly, the open pit and underground mining volumes have been maintained and at high levels such that, that material is stockpiled adjacent to the existing mill.
So for half 2, the risk of mining is reduced because the stockpile is there, it comes back to throughput through the existing plant that we are obviously persevering with until the middle of this calendar year when we commissioned the new plant. So it's really the 6 months remaining to get that going.
That crushing circuit is part of the expanded plan circuit. So that's why I got extra retention investment and a birthday to get that upgraded. So yes, they're the risk, but we'll give asset-by-asset breakdown on that in the quarterly.
And it sounds like if I got this accurate, you've built I mean, the mining productivity has been fine during the quarter. And so you build the stockpile, if I got the numbers right, 1.1 million tonnes at 1.9 grams for 70,000 ounces on the ROM pad. I imagine that you'll shuffle that through during the March quarter.
Yes. Not necessarily, Dan. We'll make sure we keep it being because you don't want to give a spike of gold and have a dip on recovery. So we just want to make sure that we are blending accurately and get the best outcome for the long term. So yes, confident it will come through in the second half. Don't necessarily need to flood it in this quarter, and that's why we talk about the full year guidance, not quarter-by-quarter.
Yes, sure. That makes sense. And just the Pogo dilution, is there any reason to be for any longer-term concern? Or is this a short-term issue. Pogo's obviously been operating very well for quite a period of time. And just wondering how far this dilution travels do you think.
Yes. Thanks, Daniel. Simon. Look, it is -- we did have a challenging quarter on dilution mainly in the first 2 months of the quarter. December, we certainly saw grade come back to 6 grams in that particular month. And really, late in December is when we saw much better results from Pogo.
So we've still got more work to do around stoping. It is ongoing at that particular operation. But we don't see that as a long-term impact. It was certainly lower than we had planned. The reserve grade is about 7.2 grams. We were sort of planning on about 6.5 grams for the quarter with a better second half in front of us from just what the schedule shows, but we certainly copped dilution than we normally planned for Pogo during Q2.
And just last question, Jundee, the materials handling system. Did you outline when you expect that to be fixed in the quarter? Is that January this quarter? Or is it -- is there still some outstanding items that have risk to that time line?
Yes, Daniel, the coarse ore stockpile fix is well progressed. We've got all the materials on site. We've excavated the whole area, and we're starting to form up some concrete plants now, and it should be rectified by mid-February at the latest, and we cut back when we do the mill shutdown. So certainly, well in hand understood. We're past the worst of it. Now it's just rebuilding it, and it's back to normal materials handling for that asset.
So the other part of that, Dan, is the current format is a bit of rehandle and redigging to move -- use the e-feeder. So the throughput is being managed. But getting back to that normal efficient cone through the feeders through that coarse ore stockpile, which has currently been bypassed, is where we'd like to be by absolutely midway through this quarter.
Your next question comes from David Radclyffe with Global Mining Research.
My question is a little bit more high level. So given a number of the outages reported are maintenance related, could you perhaps give us some more color, I guess, on your approach to proactive maintenance if this has changed and whether these events point to maybe an increased focus is required across the group? Or would you just characterize this as just a period where all the unplanned events just happened to come at one time.
Yes. Thanks, David. And it's an interesting approach. I guess we're always trying to manage and manage the sustaining capital balance to capital investment and returns. So if you kind of appreciate mines like Fimiston, multi, multi-decades in operation, Jundee just turned 30. Kanowna Belle just turned 30. If you were driving a 30-year-old vehicle around the roads, there's a balance here between breakdown maintenance and sustaining maintenance.
This is the eternal balance. You can see the hundreds of millions dollars we're spending in sustaining capital. We're not under doing it, but we're equally trying to be -- to not overdo expenditure in this regard. So it is a balance. With the knowledge of Fimiston upgraded plant imminently coming into commissioning, it was always a risk and a concern around the overall Fimiston plant, which motivated us 2.5 years ago to commit to the expansion fundamentally. So the crushing circuit is part of the new circuit, hence, why we do a great job on that, but they are just examples.
All the other elements are probably twice their designed life. Obviously, built this factors of safety at the time. And we've often done audits assessed and upgraded as we've gone annually. It's just around balancing that because the alternative is things shut down and you spend hundreds of millions of dollars on a brand-new piece of capital kit. We have not done that at these assets over a decade.
We have looked at resources, reserves, mine lives and appropriately invested in capital into the assets to match the tenure of the assets, and they're all different. There's not a standard across everything. There's no point putting 10 years investment into an asset that has 2-year mine life. Equally, something like Fimiston, it's worth doing it right upfront because you know you've got multi-decades in front of us.
Your next question comes from Levi Spry with UBS.
Just a question on the second half guidance. Can you just talk us through the assumptions behind the high end there? Maybe it's a process question. Or how would you get to a million ounces in the second half?
Look, we're going to give you an asset by asset breakdown in the quarterly. It's only 2.5 weeks away, Levi. So I'll leave that today is really just events to discuss the quarter that's been. What I'd say is we've adequately modeled and see the outlook on the assets ahead. The mining risk has been reduced and the mining volumes are done. It's really around this throughput, and that's probably been the primary issue across the quarter has been around throughput and/or the recoveries grade through those elements, and we believe we've got really good confidence in the outlook for half 2.
So the biggest lever really is KCGM. And hence, where Simon highlights in his spiel around the mining volumes, Golden Pike volumes stockpiled, the underground progress on development and stope tonnes at 3 million tonne per annum rate means that the ounces are being moved up the chain and then it's really around that throughput to deliver that.
Yes. Okay. And then obviously, it's too early talk about FY '27, but the big value driver here is the plant. So can you just expand a little bit more on the commissioning in the first quarter?
Yes. So we've said and things are progressing. The quality of the build is excellent. Simon spoke about there's still people working through Christmas, 300-odd back to the full team of nearly 800 people over that plant this month. So we're very impressed with the progress. To be able to start that commissioning, we said early in FY '27. So talking July '27, not risk any impacts in June in this financial year. And we will provide guidance as we would midyear at -- usually, at the quarterly in July.
So yes, FY '27 has to be with the comfort around the mining, the processing throughput, which was already tapered. It's 23 million tonnes for the FY '27 through that new plant, and that's already designed around lower uptime. So it's still a 27 million tonne per annum plant, but it's designed down planned downtime to commission. And that's probably the biggest lever. All the rest of the assets we've already talked to Thunderbox being a bit lighter, but the rest of the assets pre steady state throughout FY '27.
And maybe just one quick last one for Ryan. So you mentioned the cash tax catch-up payment. What else is outstanding there? Is it just the gray stamp duty? And when does that fall?
Yes, that's right, Levi. When does it fall? Hard question. Could be this financial year. Might tip into early next financial year, but yes, it's a hard one to give absolute timing. I'm forecasting that it will probably fall in this financial year, but we have to wait and see.
The next question comes from Adam Baker with Macquarie.
Just firstly, on costs. I know you're still working on optimizing the cost guidance on the 22nd of January. But do you have a general sense as to where the new all-in sustaining cost guidance will be sitting versus the current $2,300 to $2,700? Just trying to take this one through, just given the first quarter was around $2,522. You've indicated the second quarter is going to be simply higher. But I'm just wondering if the second half of FY '26 will really be that bad given the strong projected uplift in production.
Yes. Thanks, Adam. I think Ryan's comments, you talked we'd be revising. I think we're reviewing that now. So we'll report the quarter results in 2.5 weeks, and we're modeling and considering what the second half looks like.
It's one thing we're pleased with that is -- there's multiple things we're pleased with, but it is something we're pleased with in the cost control even in a low ounce quarter, the ability to remove discretionary spend and manage those dollar millions closely. And then obviously, the weight of the second half or the denominator of the second half, it's probably got the most lever on what the base could be. But we have ability perhaps to even stand at those current cost guides rails. We need to do the multi-manager the work. We'll update the market accordingly in 2.5 weeks, and it will be based on that modeling of the outlook and those assumptions. But it doesn't necessarily mean it needs to change, but we will have -- it gets more challenging given the first half has delivered.
Makes sense. And at KCGM, mill grade of 1.6 grams, slight uplift there versus the year-to-date around 1.3 to 1.4 grams. Just wondering, was there any preference to high-grade material this quarter offset the crusher failure? Or was that just a natural grade variation coming through this quarter?
Yes. Adam, it's Simon here. The grade was always going to lift Q2 on, and we've seen the start of that lifting. With the stockpile ending with that sort of 1.1 million tonnes at high 1.9-ish grams per tonne, we finished with a huge stockpile of very high grade. So -- but that will continue to flow through. So Golden Pike mining is going extremely well ahead of plan. So very happy with that piece. And you'll see better grades going forward because, a, we've got the stockpile. And secondly, the volumes keep coming out of Golden Pike North.
So really happy position where mining is sitting at the moment, and both the underground and the open pit bang on volumes of where we need to be or if not above, at the halfway point of the year. So it's really just the grade coming later in the quarter. We put the best grade we could through. But when we had the crush go down, it's been juggling around material movement and grade available to be fed through for the back of December.
The next question comes from Mitch Ryan with Jefferies.
Just wanted to have you elaborate, please, on just the grade dilution in Pogo. Just trying to understand the factors that led to that. Was it ground conditions? Was it blasting practices? Can you help us understand what it was?
Yes, Mitch, it's a combination of different areas that we're mining in plus the variability that we get between some stopes. We might get 25% dilution. Other stopes you might get 70% or 80% dilution. We plan on 50%, and we're pretty close to that on average. We had a couple of areas in the first 2 months, as I mentioned, in the quarter 2, where we got excessive dilution, more than we had planned for in those particular areas. So really, that's what dragged down the average grade for the quarter.
The other impact is some volume variance for quarter -- for Pogo, sorry. And yes, that was really down to December. It's very, very cold over there at the moment. We had to close up the mine on and off for about 3 days lost production during the quarter just when grade was starting to kick in. So that didn't help our final situation there.
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Hugo Nicolaci with Goldman Sachs.
Look, first one on the production outlook, and apologies for later the point. I know you said you'll give that split of guidance in a few weeks. But given that you already put out the updated guidance for the rest of the year at the group level to market, is there a way maybe we can talk through that getting specifics, just what gives you confidence in achieving that range for the second half in terms of what to be factored into further operational disruptions. We've seen a lot of weather impacts previously in March quarters. Is there a disruption for that and sort of the scope of the variability at KCGM? If you could give us some more color there, please?
Thanks, Hugo. I think it's the emission of these events that are finite discrete one-off and rectified. So our normal go-forward business, the performance in that half 2 guidance and the way the assets are performing, we're confident with that's not outside of the plan.
We're calling out the anomaly of quarter 2. I mean quarter 1 was on largely on plan. It was building out through quarter 2, 3, 4. We've had a setback in quarter 2, and that is due to the descriptions we have given, and they are largely rectified behind us and finite not continuing. And that's, if anything, gives us the confidence of the outlook on half 2. So we'll give that asset breakdown.
As we said, at the quarterly it is still largely hinged on throughput at KCGM. And why we have greater confidence is what Simon speaks about is that the large stockpile of high-grade material sitting on the ROM because Golden Pike is performing and the volumes are there, plus the underground grade that's been delivered and stockpiled and then the backup of the overall stockpile when the Fimiston mill turns on and [ sprint ] capacity increases there, that asset really hinges the group.
So yes, the culmination of multiple sort of smaller setbacks in every asset could all be managed, all occurring at once means that the quarter we delivered is what we delivered. But the absence of those, the omission of those is really what gives us the outlook going forward and how we've managed those risks.
Great. Just so just to clarify on any further throughput issues at KCGM, that should still be 500,000 ounces plus for the full year then?
That's the view. And look, that crusher fundamentally, yes, that's the main crusher for the main cone for the main feed. So it will be part of -- we're building a new one, but the 2 of them will be there for the new expanded plant, but the works to not just link that along, bringing that shutdown earlier and refurbishing every element of the wear packages and the motor and [ pins ] of things on that is to make sure that is not a setback on the new expanded plant.
So that is -- that's not an overall element -- an ongoing element of the current plants over the next 6 months. And Simon spoke to, it's been years since that thing has had issues. And I think it's 2017 and then '21. So it's rare. Just happened to happen to be in our quarter 2, very unfortunately.
Got it. That's helpful. And then just coming back to the cost piece as well and obviously moving some of these costs around and these sorts of work, and I appreciate again, you'll give the cost guidance in a couple of weeks. But I guess when I think about it from a dollar million perspective, have these disruptions meant that you will be spending more in aggregate in terms of sustaining capital this year. And so maybe there's a bit of upside risk to that $750 million for the year number that you previously talked to?
No. We think the dollar millions would be pretty close. There's a couple obviously -- we're saying 5s and 10s related to things like the Jundee stockpile or some of these things that have just been the one-offs to get this quick rapid response and uptime on as the crusher works. But overall, ability to knock on a deferral or delay other expenditure within that. We think the full dollar millions is still well in hand.
Now does that mean we're at the higher end of the current cost band or slightly over? We'll provide that with assessment of modeling with quarterly.
Got it. So yes, just to confirm. And so basically, it's really more denominator impact with a little bit here and there on the spending piece.
We think so. Yes.
There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Stuart Tonkin for closing remarks.
Okay. Thank you so much for joining us on the call today. We will speak again at the quarterly in a couple of weeks' time. And I think we're still buoyed by the outlook of '26 and a reset, and we're pleased with where we're positioned to date. So thanks again. We'll speak to you in a couple of weeks.
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Northern Star Resources — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Northern Star September 2025 Quarterly Results Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Stuart Tonkin, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. With me on the call is our Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Gurner; and our Chief Operating Officer, Simon Jessop.
As we confirmed this morning, for the September quarter, we sold 381,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of AUD 2,522 an ounce. The quarter delivered a mixed performance across the portfolio, but our Kalgoorlie production hub performed very well, led by KCGM, where we maintained elevated production and development rates. Also pleasingly, costs for the quarter were better than forecast, reflecting our efforts on containing spending and continued focus on capital discipline. Despite the mixed production results for the quarter, we remain well positioned to deliver our full year guidance of 1.7 million to 1.8 million ounces of gold sold at an all-in sustaining cost of AUD 2,300 to AUD 2,700 an ounce.
The KCGM mill expansion remains on track for commissioning in early FY '27 and significant progress is underway for this exciting step change to the operation. This week, we received ministerial approval from the WA government for the Fimiston South project and associated infrastructure, which supports higher future throughput and long-term cost efficiency at KCGM to deliver sustainable, high-margin ounces. We've also seen a consistent uplift in production rates from both the open pit and underground operations at KCGM, which Simon will talk to you shortly. With consistent primary ore feed and the significant 3 million ounces of stockpiles ready for processing, we're on track to maximize mill utilization and deliver on our production growth targets there.
The group underlying free cash flow of AUD 14 million reflected investment outflows relating to the KCGM mill expansion project, returns to shareholders of AUD 416 million in dividends and AUD 67 million in tax installments. Our investment-grade balance sheet remains strong with a net cash position. And as the KCGM mill expansion is in the final build year, we're poised for increased production and lowering spending. Whilst our hedge delivery schedule also declines and provides greater leverage to spot gold prices. This outlook is very favorable towards growing cash flows in the near term.
To operations, earlier this month, 2 separate events occurred at our Jundee and South Kalgoorlie operations that will see an estimated impact to December gold sales of up to 20,000 ounces. The effective volumes will be scheduled for processing across the remainder of the year, and Simon will provide further detail on both these events shortly. And I'm proud for the team's swift response to safely restore the operations as soon as possible. As I've already said, the company remains well positioned to deliver our full year guidance with stronger grades expected at KCGM in the second half, along with improved volume and grade performance across the broader portfolio. Combined with growing leverage to gold prices and ongoing cost focus, we are firmly aligned to our purpose of delivering superior returns for our shareholders.
And I'd now like to hand over to Simon Jessop, Chief Operating Officer, to discuss the operational highlights.
Thank you, Stu, and good morning. The Kalgoorlie Production Center delivered a strong quarter. At KCGM, our largest asset, production met expectations while costs came in significantly lower, reflecting the team's disciplined approach to cost and capital management. Underground ore volumes reached an annualized run rate of 2.9 million tonnes with lower grades attributed to a step-up in development activity.
Our Northern Star Mining Services team delivered 8.7 kilometers of development for the quarter, up from 7.5 in the June quarter, an outstanding effort by the team. Open pit ore volumes and grades were in line with expectations and ahead of last year. Productivity is set to further improve with Golden Pike North returning to one level -- one mining level ahead of schedule, reinforcing our confidence in achieving KCGM's FY '26 production target of 550,000 to 600,000 ounces.
KCGM mill tonnes delivered an annualized run rate of 11.6 million tonnes, notwithstanding a major planned shutdown during the quarter. For FY '26, mill throughput is forecast to be 12 million tonnes with mill grades expected to lift for the remainder of the year. As Stu mentioned, we had an event at South Kalgoorlie earlier this month. After 60 millimeters of rain, a wall slip occurred in the historic open pit, temporarily affecting infrastructure for the underground mine. The main portal to the underground operations remains unaffected a return to normal stoping is expected during the quarter.
Let me close on the Kalgoorlie production center by sharing how pleased I am with the progress on the KCGM mill expansion. Over recent months, construction has advanced significantly, and the project is now moving into electrical and piping installation. Through the remainder of FY '26, we'll transition into the final stages of construction, including finishing works, fit-outs and commissioning and testing.
Turning to our Yandal production center. The highlight for the September quarter was the milling performance at Thunderbox, achieving an annualized record throughput of 6.7 million tonnes per annum, exceeding the 6 million tonne per annum nameplate capacity for a second consecutive quarter. The cost environment across Yandal remains challenging, and we continue to pursue cost initiatives wherever possible to mitigate pressures.
At Jundee, gold sales of 55,000 ounces came in below plan due to lower stope grade ore at both Jundee and Ramone, which was also impacted by lower recovery. We expect similar grades through the December quarter with improvement anticipated in the second half. Development at Griffin is progressing ahead of schedule with first ore now underway, unlocking future access to higher-grade stope tonnes, a great effort by our Northern Star Mining Services team. As Stu mentioned, earlier this quarter, a localized structural failure occurred in the crushing circuit at Jundee. The team has acted swiftly, enabling operations to resume within 2 weeks.
At Thunderbox, I am very pleased with the mill's performance, exceeding nameplate for the second straight quarter. This strong throughput helped offset lower grades from the Orelia open pit, which are scheduled to improve in the second half. Meanwhile, open pit mining at Bannockburn ramped up significantly with first ore expected to feed the mill in the second half of FY '26.
Finally, turning our attention to Pogo. At Pogo, the underground mine and mill operated at an annualized run rate of 1.4 million tonnes per annum during the September quarter despite a planned major mill shutdown, a fantastic effort by our U.S. team. Mine grade was affected by sequencing, but is expected to improve over the remainder of the year. The mill continues to focus on recovery optimization, achieving 87% recovery despite lower head grades. Development of the 2 new portals is progressing well, unlocking access to the Central Veins and Goodpaster systems. Most supporting infrastructure is nearing completion with the portals also set to improve ventilation and haulage efficiency across other areas of the mine.
Mine development averaged 1,664 meters per month, exceeding our 1,500-meter target. Let me finish by reaffirming that we are on track to deliver our group production guidance of 1.7 million to 1.85 million ounces. The June quarter is forecast to be the strongest as key growth projects reach completion. Across the business, our team remains and continues to have a sharp focus on cost and capital discipline.
I would now like to pass on to Ryan, our Chief Financial Officer, to discuss the financials.
Thanks, Simon. Good morning all. The company is in a great financial position. Our balance sheet remains strong in a net cash position of AUD 616 million with cash and bullion of AUD 1.5 billion at 30 September. On a net mine cash flow basis, the business generated AUD 183 million, thanks to higher gold prices and prudent cost discipline.
Figure 8 on Page 10 sets out the company's cash and bullion movements for the quarter, with key elements being the company recording AUD 751 million of operational cash flow, net of AUD 67 million in income taxes paid. After deducting CapEx of AUD 614 million relating to plant and equipment and mine development, AUD 59 million in exploration and AUD 64 million in equipment finance and lease costs, quarterly free cash generation was AUD14 million.
Looking ahead, operational free cash flow is expected to rise with increasing production at KCGM from Golden Pike North and ramp-up of underground production. Continued solid throughput at TBO with increasing grade planned and increased throughput and grade at Pogo. Also during the quarter, the company paid its FY '25 final dividend totaling AUD 416 million. Our growth projects and exploration plans are tracking well.
Major operational growth capital investment includes at KCGM, open pit development at Great Boulder and underground development at Fimiston and Mount Charlotte, which will enable us to lift production over the coming years. And at Thunderbox, open pit development at Orelia and Bannockburn. In respect of the KCGM growth project, AUD 196 million was invested during the quarter with major progress in structural and mechanical installation. As Simon mentioned, electrical and piping installation is now underway with final construction fit-outs and commissioning to follow throughout this year. The spend profile is forecast to decline over the financial year with the completion of procurement with forecast personnel and plant and equipment demobilizing commencing in the second half.
At our Hemi project, AUD 41 million was spent advancing process plant design, securing long lead time items and progress on nonprocessing infrastructure. On other financial matters, Q1 costs tracked to plan with our teams remaining disciplined with cost and capital decisions. Q1 depreciation and amortization is within the full year range provided of AUD 875 to AUD 975 per ounce and noncash inventory charges for the group are a credit of AUD 34 million, driven by low-grade stockpile build and higher ore stocks and golden circuit at KCGM and higher ore stock value at Jundee.
From a tax perspective, we maintain our full year cash tax guidance range of AUD 700 million to AUD 835 million, with 2/3 expected to be paid in the first half. Landholder duty for the De Grey and Saracen transactions are estimated at AUD 200 million to AUD 300 million. Payment is expected over the next 6 to 18 months. And a reminder, the company will pay its semiannual coupon payment and annual insurance premiums in the next quarter.
Finally, the company's committed hedge position at 30 September is 1.275 million ounces at an average price just over AUD 3,300 per ounce.
I will now pass back to Harmony for the Q&A. Thanks very much.
Your first question comes from Daniel Morgan from Barrenjoey.
2. Question Answer
My first question relates to costs, really. You've said costs were lower than planned, and it looks like lower than market expectations. How much of this is lumpiness of spend, noting that sustaining CapEx, you're run rating $576 million versus $750 million guidance.
Obviously, CapEx can be lumpy. Yes, just wondering how much -- what initiatives really drove this cost outcome? How sustainable it is? And how much is it just lumpiness?
Yes. Thanks, Dan. What we want to be careful to do is to not defer important sustaining capital that creates any future issues. So there's a fine balance there. But what it means is really very strict focus on expenditures, necessary expenditures that obviously also support the full year guidance. So yes, pleasing to see that work and pleasing to see where even on a low ounce quarter, where the cost came in, and we see that they just -- those unit costs improved throughout the year, helped with just maintaining that cost, but also growing the production base. We see ability to sustain the unit costs and improve on them. There is a big structural change in that cost base as we turn on Fimiston next financial year, but it's important this year is another investing year. So it's very important we keep that discipline focus optimization across them.
And then just with the production plans, I mean, you flagged this 20,000 ounce impact in the December quarter. I mean, reading the notes, it appears that you think some of this will be caught up through the year? Or can you just, I guess, expand on the production impacts and whether they can be caught up?
Yes. So essentially, the impacts of the operations meant sort of downtime, we're able to do other productive work and just resequence mine plans. The team has been fantastic at being able to do that. Mining activities continued. So it's really just mill disruption at Jundee, which we can absolutely catch up on. So hence, we've sequenced that into the second half of the year. Down in South Kalgoorlie, its contributions low volume, high grade and some development activity, ground supports continuing whilst we get the second egress reestablished and then production turns back on. So at this stage, we've said up to 20,000 in this quarter, but essentially, it just gets deferred, not lost.
And last question is just looking at the key drivers across the business in terms of production outcomes in the quarters ahead. What are the key drivers? And what is the expectation towards the December quarter, key drivers being tonnes grade. Obviously, you're not going to have any mill outages apart from what you flagged at Jundee this quarter. Can you just run through that?
Yes. Thanks, Daniel, Simon here. So the biggest -- the big key driver is getting the Golden Pike North down to the 1 bench. So it's taken us the Q1 to get us down to the 600 bench at Golden Pike North. So now we've got the East side and the West side all at one level. We're on top of where all the ounces really kick and that low strip ratio for the rest of the year. So even KCGM down in Golden Pike, we averaged a strip ratio of 5:1, and that will just decrease over the rest of the year. But the hard work has really been done. So we are set for the jump.
What I'm really pleased about is that the team has done it earlier than planned. So that sets us up really, really well for the jump for the next few years, not just the quarter for increased gold production at KCGM. So that's the biggest lever. Across the rest of the group, it really is Yandal has some higher-grade ore coming in from open pit sources in the second half as well as increased grade contribution at Thunderbox from the undergrounds.
And over at Pogo, it's returning to around the average of the reserve grade. So if you average quarter 4 and quarter 1, we're bang on the reserve grade. Q1 was lower. So it's really getting back into some better areas at Pogo, primarily in the second half. So they're the key levers across the business that we see.
And sorry, I imagine Golden Pike is going to be skewed or weighted to the second half of this financial year.
Well, Golden Pike now, we're slightly ahead of plan in terms of -- we're on the mining level. So the large ounce contribution from Golden Pike North, which we spent numerous years getting to, we're there now, which is positive.
Your next question comes from Levi Spry from UBS.
Maybe I could just pick up on that Golden Pike North piece, Simon. So will we see materially higher grades start coming through from the open pit at KCGM this quarter? Or are you seeing them now?
Yes, correct, Levi. We're seeing the grades increase, but it's not just the grade, it's the volume. So the grade has always been there, but we haven't had the volume piece with it. So we now see that strip ratio just declining. We're back on one efficient bench on both sides of the pit. And yes, you'll see the grade climb at KCGM. I think we guided at the site visit for Q1 grade process to be 1.2 to 1.4 grams per tonne, and we averaged 1.4 for the quarter. So you're starting to see that grade jump up at KCGM.
Yes, nice one. And could I just ask a question around Hemi. Maybe just sort of reiterate sort of time lines that you're expecting. And I think maybe there's been some comments around a sort of 2.5-year build. Have I picked that up correctly? Just how do we think about the next steps forward there later in the financial year?
Yes. Thanks, Levi. Yes, the 2.5-year build essentially is I guess the commentary from the DFS and accurate, we basically say the 6 months of engineering and work and then really 2, 2-plus year construction. The -- what's happening right now, obviously, is the approvals are still pending, working with all stakeholders to advance any needs that are there. We expected that in the March quarter, approvals could be met, then we were going to refresh pricing to make sure that we update all the pricing with all the counterparties and put that in front of our Board for a final investment decision during this end of this financial year.
So I think what I'd explain was that the build likely, we want to see KCGM turned on contributing, production increasing there, sort of seamless ramp-up and without the CapEx spend and then neatly dovetail in the commencement of Hemi construction. Things can overlap as far as approvals, long lead items, expenditure, preparations, design, et cetera. But it's probably important that the transfer of knowledge from KCGM goes with the Hemi build. So yes, it's the second half -- late in the second half updates on that. But really, we still need approvals before we can advance on turn and earth and doing things up there.
Your next question comes from Matthew Frydman from MST Financial.
A couple of questions on various undergrounds. Maybe firstly, at Jundee, Simon mentioned the disappointing grades during the quarter, running at about 2.5 grams a tonne, whereas I think your reserve grade is closer to 4 grams a tonne. That asset seems to have fairly consistently underperformed the reserve grade, at least in most of the recent quarters. Can you point to any perhaps recent grade control drilling or otherwise, I guess, what gives you confidence that those grades are going to improve in the second half of the year, as Simon alluded to?
Yes. Thanks, Matt. So where we're seeing the grades start to increase back to a higher number at Jundee really is from the Griffin area to the north and the development in that part of the mine is actually ahead of plan. So that's really pleasing. That gives us access to some better stope grade. So it's mainly the average stope grade in Q1. We just didn't have access to the right areas to get that typical pickup in grade that we get in Jundee. So that's one area. And the other area really is a place called Plutus, which we've been drilling for the last few years, has some very good grade that we're accelerating our mine plan out to. So it's a combination of a number of different areas across Barton, [ Nimary ] and Gateway. And it's just that it's getting those average grades up from some of those higher-grade sources coming in. So everything else was fine in terms of development plan. Ramone is on plan. That's coming to the end of its life. So we'll finish that project over the course of FY '26. But it's just timing of where those higher-grade stope tonnes come through to lift the average back up.
Got it. That's pretty clear. And then maybe a similar question then on the KCGM underground. You talked about the circa 3 million tonne per annum run rate being achieved in the quarter, but obviously, the grade a little lower due to the proportion of development. When does that sort of mix shift? Or in other words, when do you reach that inflection point on development where you're sort of hitting both the tonnage and the grade coming out of the KCGM underground?
Yes. With -- look, what I was really pleased about was the 8.5 kilometers of -- or 8.7 kilometers of development that we got for the quarter. So that's right in the rails of what our plan is for the 36 to 40 kilometers of development for the year. It is -- the grade will increase as Fimiston starts to produce more stope to it. So it's still heavy development focus, waste and ore. But as the stoping contribution starts to increase, which it did throughout the quarter, you'll see that grade -- that average grade start to come up. And then it's just a function of where we're mining at Mount Charlotte. So there's a lot of different areas there. But fundamentally, it's -- it will return back to the average grade with volume, but it's the stoping contribution and the ramp-up at Fimiston is the main area that will start to lift.
Any particular timing around that? I mean, obviously, you've said 3 million tonnes of volume this year, 4 million tonnes next year. Is that at something close to reserve grade? Or yes, what's the sort of timing around that?
It's just incremental because as the mine keeps growing, that production is not going to be 3 exactly and then a jump exactly to 4 and a jump again exactly to 5. So as the stoping areas and the mine starts to really be unlocked, then you'll just see an incremental growth in production as well as grade with more stoping. End of the day, it's the stope dirt, which is what we're chasing at KCGM.
Your next question comes from Mitch Ryan from Jefferies.
Firstly, can we spend a little time at Jundee? Can you help me understand the impact on the crushing circuit? So you've reconfigured it into the SAG mill. What's the cost and time frame to return it back to the sort of design flow sheet?
Yes. Thanks for that. The processing is back running at Jundee again. So we've had around 2 weeks where we've had to pause stop. It's the access to the infrastructure has failed for the conveyor belt that feeds the SAG mill. So we've now got going again in terms of feeding that and isolated the coarse ore stockpile area. And now we can take our time to get that rectified over probably the remainder of this quarter. It will probably take a couple of months to actually fix that. But in terms of crushing, we can still crush crusher material at the front end of the circuit, and we can still mill the material through a revised change on the conveyor set up at the back of the circuit. And now we've isolated that particular area, and we'll work on the fastest fix we can for that infrastructure.
Okay. So sort of that's the 10,000 ounce impact and then potentially a little hit to operating costs as well over the same time period.
Yes. It's the operating cost at the moment is that engineering rectification remediation work on the coarse ore stockpile infrastructure that will be a bit of an unknown, but it's talking $5 million and $10 million, you're not talking 50s and hundreds, right?
Yes. Yes. Cool. And then my second question just relates to Hemi, and you've given us obviously a bit of an update there. But specifically on the negotiations with the traditional owners, how are they progressing? Do you have a rough time frame of when you would expect those to be concluded?
Well, there's engagement with all stakeholders. Again, traditional owners absolutely continuing and working well together, but equally across all stakeholders there. And we set out that in the March quarter, it was essentially all of the feedback loops have occurred to regulators to consider all those things and any conditions related to approval. So yes, that's all on track and being pretty patient with all that to make sure it's done well.
Your next question comes from Hugo Nicolaci from Goldman Sachs.
I just want to dig into the cost at KCGM a little bit more. It looks like the open pit mining costs have started to normalize back to about $8 a tonne. The underground costs sort of tracking around that $40 million a quarter in terms of spend. Are you able to just comment sort of directionally what those rates should be going forward for the rest of the year? Should we see the open pit continue to improve and the underground sort of just pick up as you do more development?
Hugo, it's Ryan here. Yes, look, overall operating costs per tonne are a bit lighter than that. They're around currently $6 a tonne, just under actually, $5.95. Probably expect, as Simon said, as we -- on that one bench at GP North, we expect efficiencies to improve there. And then as we get into Ivanhoe with the approvals now, the cost per tonne out there is even lower again. So we expect those to improve. And as Simon said, with the incremental with the ramp-up on the underground, which I think the costs are going pretty well there, should see some improvement there, too.
Yes. Hugo, it's Simon. I think the -- what you'll see is the run rate has stabilized in the open pit, and we've had 2 quarters at 22.5 million tonnes mined. So it's getting more efficiencies into that, but that's a 90 million tonne annualized run rate. So we see that as around the -- where we're going to sit. And now as we -- now we've got the approvals from Section 38, we're going to gradually get more volume from Ivanhoe, which is obviously a shorter haul, less powder factor, et cetera. So the volumes will stay around that $90 million, but we see positive momentum in the efficiencies at KCGM.
And with the underground, it's a little bit like the previous discussion. As the stoping dirt increases the contribution, you'll certainly start to see the average cost per tonne for the underground start to come down because we're getting cheaper tonnes from the stope dirt across Fimiston in particular. So pretty pleased with where we're sitting at the moment.
Fantastic. It's all positive from a cost piece. And then just on the processing side, it looks like the processing costs have sort of stayed at that $41 a tonne from last quarter. I think sort of 6, 12 months ago, that was more like low to mid- $30 a tonne. Is that just the rate now going forward as the mill sort of approaches end of life? And how should we think about as the expansion comes online? I think historically, you've talked to a $7 a tonne reduction. Should we be thinking that number potentially then bigger?
Yes, it's a really good point. We averaged about $33 to $34 a tonne at KCGM for the quarter. But certainly, as we're getting to the end of that life, the mill and the process plant from a structural perspective has had a day. So I'm really, really looking forward to getting the new processing plant. And I absolutely do feel that gap has significantly widened from when we put out the original KCGM feasibility final investment decision. So we've seen things like cyanide and other things costs increase across the group. But in terms of the maintenance cost and operating the 30-year-old plant at KCGM, that gap has widened as it's coming into the last year of its life.
Yes. It sounds like potentially some significant room there. But one more, if I could, just on the corporate overhead piece, that just seems to have increased across most of the assets versus the run rate over the last 12 months. Can you just comment on what's driving that and we should expect that to normalize going forward from this quarter?
Yes, Hugo, Ryan here. Look, obviously, we've picked up our De Grey teams is probably part of that. And then there's been a little bit more addition around the technical and some of the operational piece here in the business. It will -- from a per ounce perspective, it will reduce because this is our lowest ounce quarter. But from a fixed cost perspective, it's probably -- it will probably continue throughout the quarters ahead, but on a cost per ounce reduced.
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Andrew Bowler from Macquarie.
Just one on costs for me. From memory, Northern Star has a gold price linked staff incentive scheme. I was just wondering if the recent gold price lift is something that can be accommodated in the current guidance for this year? And if so, is there any sort of lumpiness to expect in those payments over the year that might be meaningful for us?
Yes. Thanks, Andrew. The -- it did stale as the gold price ripped up $3,000, $4,000, $5,000, $6,000 an ounce. So that's been pretty full at a full rate for a number of years. So there's not compression, I guess, or bounces as a pullback in gold price at the moment. So it's fairly sticky and embedded into -- but it is a very strong reminder of what we're enjoying at levels still above $6,000 an ounce. But yes, it's not something that's a spring related to any of these pullbacks. But what we're enjoying is still -- if we look back to our resource reserve pricing and overall cost structure, it's really around our productivities, our production increases, the capital wind down and the structural change with KCGM that's going to make the big difference to migrate us down the cost curve. It's not going to be chips and savings on unit labor costs. It's going to be on efficiency from that labor, productivity from that labor as opposed to unit cost of it.
Understood. And maybe just one more on the labor force. I mean, obviously, there's been some articles written about the strength of the gold sector in Western Australia, but obviously, some other resources industries are suffering a little bit as well. Is there any broad comments you can make about the state of the industry at the moment, how you're finding availability of skilled staff? Is there another level of tightness coming? Or is it very much being offset by some weakness elsewhere?
Yes. I don't see that tightness of the tightening of those labor markets putting pressure on wages. What I see is cost of living put expectations and pressure on what people are feeling generally, and that's not just here, that's also in Alaska. It's pleasing to see, obviously promoting ties to the U.S. to get new metals business growth. That will take a lot of time before there's any kind of pressure from those new markets if there's growth and investment in that phase. But what we need to do is turn around attractiveness of investment back into Australia. So that's very promising in that regard. But equally, at the moment, we're not gold in the same lane, and we're focused on the things that are in our control.
There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Tonkin for closing remarks.
Great. Thank you all for joining us on the call, and I appreciate your interest in our company today on a -- what is a very busy day. So thank you, and have a good day.
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Finanzdaten von Northern Star Resources
Umsatz
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Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
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Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
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Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Dez '25 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 6.960 6.960 |
26 %
26 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 4.327 4.327 |
12 %
12 %
62 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 2.634 2.634 |
57 %
57 %
38 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 152 152 |
1 %
1 %
2 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 2.441 2.441 |
64 %
64 %
35 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 11 11 |
45 %
45 %
0 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 2.430 2.430 |
64 %
64 %
35 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 1.548 1.548 |
64 %
64 %
22 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen AUD.
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Firmenprofil
Northern Star Resources Ltd. ist ein Goldproduzent und Explorationsunternehmen. Das Unternehmen ist in den folgenden Segmenten tätig: KCGM, Kalgoorlie Operations, Carosue Dam, Pogo, Jundee, Thunderbox, und Exploration. Die Segmente KCGM, Kalgoorlie Operations, Carosue Dam, Pogo, Jundee und Thunderbox befassen sich mit dem Abbau und der Verarbeitung von Gold. Das Segment Exploration konzentriert sich auf die Erkundung und Bewertung von Goldmineralisierungen. Das Unternehmen wurde am 12. Mai 2000 gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Subiaco, Australien.
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| Hauptsitz | Australien |
| CEO | Mr. Tonkin |
| Mitarbeiter | 3.383 |
| Gegründet | 2000 |
| Webseite | www.nsrltd.com |


