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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 1,62 Mrd. € | Umsatz (TTM) = 704,63 Mio. €
Marktkapitalisierung = 1,62 Mrd. € | Umsatz erwartet = 1,87 Mrd. €
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 2,33 Mrd. € | Umsatz (TTM) = 704,63 Mio. €
Enterprise Value = 2,33 Mrd. € | Umsatz erwartet = 1,87 Mrd. €
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Neinor Homes Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
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Analystenmeinungen
14 Analysten haben eine Neinor Homes Prognose abgegeben:
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FEB
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Q4 2025 Earnings Call
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25
Q2 2025 Earnings Call
vor 11 Monaten
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JUN
16
Aedas Homes, S.A., Neinor Homes, S.A. - M&A Call
vor etwa einem Jahr
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aktien.guide Basis
Neinor Homes — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Neinor Homes Full Year 2025 Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, José Cravo. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, everyone. My name is José Cravo, and I'm the Head of Investor Relations at Neinor Homes. Today, we are going to go over results for the fiscal year 2025. And as usual, we are here with Borja Garcia-Egotxeaga, our CEO; Jordi Argemí, our Deputy CEO and CFO. We will start the presentation with the key highlights in Section 1. Then on Section 2, we will provide an update on the closing of the AEDAS transaction. On Section 3, we will review financial results. And on Section 4, we'll finish with key takeaways. After the presentation, there will be a Q&A session to answer any questions you may have.
Now I hand over the presentation to our CEO, Borja Garcia-Egotxeaga.
Thank you, Jose. Good morning, and thanks, everyone, for joining. Let me be very clear about the most important message we want to convey during this presentation. We are executing today, and we are accelerating tomorrow. That is the story. Let's break it down. First, results. Full year 2025 is the seventh year in a row that we delivered on our operational and financial targets, 7 years, not 1 or 2, 7. In a fragmented market through cycles and through volatility, we have consistently done what we said that we would do. That is the value created by this management team. It's discipline, it's execution and focus.
Second, AEDAS. In less than 8 months, we have secured full control, doubled the scale of the platform. This is not incremental. This is transformational. With AEDAS, we created the national champion in a highly fragmented market. We moved from being a strong operator to being the clear consolidation leader. Third, the market. The macro is strong. GDP in Spain is growing fast. Employment is solid. Population is increasing and household leverage remains low. At the same time, supply is structurally tight.
And when supply is scarce, price move up. But -- and this is important, affordability for our clients remains healthy. We operate in a market where demand fundamentals are real and sustainable, not speculative. That is what we call HALO, Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence in a structurally scarce environment. That combination creates resilience and long-term value. And fourth, Grow. We are very well positioned. We have a scale. We have the best land, we have visibility, and we have a proven capital allocation framework.
We will continue to grow, but we'll do so the same way we have delivered 7 consecutive years of results with discipline, with focus, and with equity-efficient execution. So again, we are executing today. We are very focused in AEDAS integration, and we are accelerating tomorrow. Now let's move to Slide #5, and let's see the numbers. We have closed the year with a land bank of almost 38,000 units. Around 25,000 of those are currently under production and more than 12,000 are in work-in-progress or already finished. That is production capacity. That's multi-year visibility.
Our order book stands at record levels of nearly 9,000 units, representing more than EUR 3 billion of future revenues. And during the year, we have delivered close to 3,000 homes to our clients. On the right side of the slide, you have the financials. Jordi will go through them in detail later, but let me highlight 3 points. First, we reached the high end of our guidance. Second, operating margins remained solid with 27% gross margins. Third, at the bottom line, net income came in 7% above guidance, excluding AEDAS.
On the balance sheet, leverage increased versus last year as expected, but it remains fully aligned with our strategy and supported by a strong cash flow visibility. Finally, shareholder value creation has been strong with 25% growth in NAV per share plus dividends distributed. So when we say we are executing today, this is exactly what we mean. Please follow me to the next slide to see how the platform has transformed in just 3 years.
Now let's zoom out. The Spanish residential market is highly fragmented. Even the largest players have a very small market share. Neinor's platform today is 2, 3 or 4x larger than most of our peers. And in a fragmented market, a scale wins. Look at the evolution since 2023. Our order book is up by almost 7x. Our units under construction tripled. Our active portfolio is up by 4x, and our total land bank has more than doubled. This is not incremental growth. That is a structural expansion.
But let me be clear, this is not growth for the sake of growth. It's rooted in a disciplined strategy. It's grounded on our equity-efficient model, and it is designed to create value for our shareholders. Yes, the scale is important, but quality is even more. Please, let's go to next slide. Now let's turn to the quality because scale with the quality doesn't create value. More than 80% of our GAV is concentrated in 8 regions. These are the areas with the strongest economic growth, the strongest demographics and the tightest supply in Spain. This quality land bank is worth more than EUR 10 billion in future revenues.
And more important, it was acquired through a disciplined investment strategy. This provides meaningful downside protection and a clear upside in the current market environment. It is important to highlight also the segment in which we operate. We focus on the mid- to mid-high segment, selling homes at EUR 300,000 to EUR 400,000, more than 90% to Spaniards who are buying a residence where they will live. Around 30% of our clients buy with cash, while those that use leverage do so conservatively with an average loan-to-value of 65%.
As a result, our buyers enjoy structurally strong affordability metrics with house-price-to-income 40% below the national average. Moreover, in recent years, when house prices started to accelerate due to the structural imbalance of demand and supply, affordability for Neinor clients remains at the same levels or even is improving a little bit. This combination of premium locations, disciplined land acquisition and resilient demand positioning underpins the quality of our earnings profile. Please follow me to next slide so that we can explain why Spain continues to be one of the safest residential markets worldwide, which further strengthens our current setup.
For many years, we have been saying that Spain is one of the safest residential markets worldwide. And we say so for a structural reasons. It is true that most residential markets in developed countries are undersupplied. Spain is not unique in that sense. Their real difference lies on the demand side and in the financing structure. The Spanish economy is performing well. Employment is growing. Population is increasing. But more important, the Spanish housing market is much less leveraged than the others.
In Spain, typical loan-to-value ratios are around 70% to 80%. While in many other countries, it is normal for buyers to get 90% of the purchase price. Moreover, the cost of financing is also very different. In Spain, our clients are signing long-term fixed mortgages close to 2%, while in other markets, mortgage rates can easily be double that level. So lower leverage and lower financing costs make the Spanish market more resilient to shocks.
So when we think about the housing cycle and evolution of house prices, the key variable is not only supply, it is affordability under stress. In markets with high leverage and higher mortgage rates, affordability can deteriorate quite quickly when interest rates move. In Spain, the impact is much more limited. Buyers use 20% to 30% less leverage when buying. They lock in long-term fixed rates 30 years versus mixed rate to more short term in U.K., for instance. And household balance sheets are stronger than in previous cycles. That is why we believe Spain is structurally more resilient.
And that is why we believe this market can sustain moderate price growth without undermining affordability, especially in our segment. Now let me step back and explain why we believe Spain offers structural growth opportunities beyond the economic cycles. Over the last years, Spain has accumulated a housing production deficit of more than 800,000 units. To put that into perspective, this deficit is equivalent to roughly 8 years of current annual housing production. As you can see on the chart, household formation is exceeding year-by-year housing production, especially after '21.
The gap keeps increasing, and it is expected to do so in the following years. This tells us something fundamental. Spain simply doesn't build enough homes to meet underlying demographic demand. And as population growth accelerates and household formation continues, this deficit does not correct itself. That's why we believe Spain residential is supported by structural fundamentals, not just macro momentum. For a scaled industrial platform like ours in a quality land bank and embedded execution, this creates a long runway for disciplined growth and value creation. And now let me pass the word to Jordi to see a little bit more of AEDAS transaction and financials.
Thank you, Borja. Let's go through the key milestones of the AEDAS transaction, which we have successfully executed in just 8 months. In December, we acquired almost 80% of AEDAS by purchasing the stake from Castlelake. At the end of January, the CNMV authorized the mandatory tender offer and confirmed the price as equitable. Shortly after, we reorganized the Board of Directors, securing full operational control of the company. And since then, we have already implemented decisive actions.
First, we have restructured the corporate debt using the Bolus facility. Second, we signed a management agreement so that we are in charge of the key strategic decisions and have full control of cash management. And third, we canceled AEDAS shareholder remuneration policy to fully align capital allocation with Neinor strategy. As you know, the acceptance period of the mandatory tender offer will finish tomorrow, and the final results will be published next week. Regardless of the final percentage that we will own, the strategic objective of this transaction has already been achieved. We have control, integration is well advanced and synergies are underway.
With that said, let's move to Section #3 to review the 2025 financial results. On the left-hand side of the Slide 13, you see 3 columns. First, our original guidance for the year. Second, the reported results, excluding AEDAS, which are fully comparable to our guidance. And third, the actual results, including the impact of AEDAS from the 22nd December onwards. Let's start with deliveries. We neutralized around 1,900 units, out of which 1,565 units correspond to build-to-sell projects with an average selling price of EUR 421,000 and 352 units correspond to build-to-rent projects.
As anticipated during the year, the higher average selling price reflects the delivery of Santa Clara development, where units are sold above EUR 1 million each. In addition, the build-to-rent projects divested were for an amount of EUR 70 million. And remember that these are recorded directly as margin in the P&L due to the applicable accounting standards. As you can see, revenues from the asset management business are amounting around EUR 20 million, while construction and other revenues contributed approximately EUR 30 million.
In total, revenues reached close to EUR 700 million. And this is basically the higher end of our EUR 600 million to EUR 700 million guidance range. In terms of profitability, gross margin stood at 27%, also above our 24%, 25% objective. EBITDA reached EUR 110 million, also at the high end of guidance. And at the bottom line, net income came in at EUR 70 million, representing a 7% beat versus guidance of EUR 65 million. Regarding leverage, we closed the year with an LTV of 16%, which is below our target of 23% and this already includes the dividend distribution executed earlier this month of EUR 92 million.
So overall, solid operational execution and cash flow generation from the underlying business. Now looking at the third column, which includes the impact of the transaction, you can see that AEDAS contributed 26 units at an average selling price of EUR 412,000. Basically, it adds EUR 12 million of revenues and bringing group revenues to EUR 709 million. At EBITDA level, the impact is minimal, around negative EUR 1 million, mainly due to the structural costs and the margins for finished products, which are lower.
The most relevant impact is at net income level, I would say, due to the purchase price allocation accounting with a positive contribution net of transaction costs and net of one-offs of EUR 52 million. That implies that the net income increases from EUR 70 million Neinor stand-alone to EUR 122 million at a consolidated basis. Note that this is a non-cash item that was triggered by the badwill arising from the M&A transaction. This extraordinary profit represents an anticipation of the EUR 450 million target net income we announced in June of last year.
And if you look at the net debt, it increases to EUR 1.1 billion. This basically implies a loan-to-value of 36%, which again is slightly below to our 37.5%, 40% target, including guidance. So with that said, let's move to the Slide #14. Let' s zoom out for a moment and go back to basics. We operate a highly industrialized and scalable platform in a fragmented market. Our business consists of buying raw land and transform the plots into new homes for our clients. And as you can see, over the last 9 years, we have perfected this model, delivering more than 16,000 homes across Spain.
Financially, this translates into more than EUR 5 billion of revenues, industry-leading gross margins of 28%, more than EUR 900 million of EBITDA and more than EUR 600 million of net income. And that profitability has not remained in our balance sheet. It has been returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. If we focus on our strategic plan, we have distributed EUR 450 million with a further EUR 400 million forecasted for the upcoming 2 years.
In practical terms, these companies will return approximately 80% of its market cap as of March 2023 to shareholders in only 5 years. And we have done this while doubling the size of the company. Originally, the plan contemplated to reduce the size of the company by 30%, but instead, we are doubling earnings per share. So we have demonstrated that we are disciplined and be sure we will continue being.
And now I hand over the presentation back to Borja for the key takeaways.
Thank you, Jordi. So let me close by summarizing the investment case in 4 clear points. First, our positioning. We operate in heavy tangible assets, land and housing. These are real assets with very low obsolescence risk. In a world increasingly exposed to technological disruption, our business is structurally protected. People will always need homes and the real raw material is the land, not the metaverse. Second, our asset base. We control the largest and highest quality land bank in Spain. Fully permitted land in prime regions is scarce. Scarcity protects value and scarcity embeds margins. When you own the right land in the right locations with permits in place, you control both timing and profitability. This is a structural competitive advantage.
Third, the market environment. As we have seen, Spain is structurally undersupplied. At the same time, the housing market is under leveraged with conservative mortgage structures and resilient affordability. That combination makes the Spanish residential market one of the safest globally. And importantly, this structural imbalance does not disappear if GDP moderates. Supply constraints are long term. Demand fundamentals are demographic. This is not a short-cycle story. And fourth, growth. We will continue to grow, but with discipline. Every investment must be equity efficient. Every transaction must be value accretive. Scale is important, but discipline is what creates value. That is why we believe Neinor is positioned not just for this cycle, but for the long term. Thank you very much.
Operator, we can now start the Q&A session.
[Operator Instructions] We will take our first question. And the question comes from the line from Ignacio Domínguez from JB Capital.
2. Question Answer
I have a question on outlook for the next few years. What gross development margins do you expect to deliver on a consolidated basis, particularly as the combined Neinor, AEDAS platform stabilizes?
Everything regarding the business plan and the future, we prefer to wait because, as you know, we are in the middle of the Mandatory Tender Offer. So results should come -- will come next week. And after it, we try or our intention is to present the business plan and all the guidance at the AGM that will be in April. So a few weeks from that. We don't expect any changes to what we presented in the tender offer in all the guidance for the JVs. But in any case, it's better to wait for the final result of the tender offer to answer.
We will take our next question. The question comes from the line of Fernando Abril-Martorell from Alantra.
I have 3 questions, please. First, on execution. So what is your target for new housing starts in your fully owned portfolio in 2026? And also would like to -- if possible, if you can elaborate a little bit on the constraints you may be facing in launching new developments and whether you see any change in the stance from public authorities regarding permits and approvals. Second, on land purchases. I don't know, you've raised -- you've done another capital increase aiming for new growth opportunities. So I don't know if you can comment a little bit more on this. And if you have any -- I don't know if you have any land acquisition target for this year as well. And third, maybe you will not answer much on this based on what Jordi just said. But if we assume that you paid the remaining EUR 150 million dividends this year, I don't know if you can comment on your year-end net debt target or loan-to-value based on this assumption.
I will start with the first question that was regarding -- I understood about what we are going to launch in this year for the year '26 which target. As we said during the tender offer, the new size of the company of the whole group between Neinor and AEDAS will lead us into a situation where we will be delivering between 5,000 to 6,000 units per year. So right now, we are just closing, as Jordi was saying, the business plan. And therefore, all the portfolio is being adapted into that metrics that I'm telling you. So more or less, you can consider that during the year, we should launch enough to recover in year '28, '29 those 5,000 to 6,000 units.
Regarding the situation with the politics and the permissions, well, you know that in Spain, the situation with the house crisis is getting louder year-by-year. And this is making most of the regions we are seeing in all the regions, in fact, where we are working, how the rules are changing. Basically, what all the regions are trying to do is to do it easier to get the licenses to short times and to try to increase the supply. All of this is good for our business. So we are happy with the situation in terms of the action of the politicians that we have been asking for, for so long.
Regarding your second question, the land purchase, I give the word to Mario.
Okay. Well, as mentioned, we are closing the investment strategy. And in the coming weeks, we will provide further details. But as of today, we can say that we have a good pipeline of above EUR 500 million in the different living verticals, both in build-to-sell in Senior, in Flex and in strategic land. We will keep discipline. So we know that today, we are the rock stars of the sector, but our main mantra is to keep the discipline that has allowed us in the last years to invest more than EUR 3 billion, but providing IRRs of above 20%. So that's a bit of what we can say today.
I take the last one, the net debt target. As I said before, Fernando, we prefer not to close down mandatory tender offer, and we will come back in a few weeks to explain the business plan in details. In any case, as I was saying before, whatever comes will be aligned with what we presented in June. And remember that the debt target there was 20% to 30% Neinor HoldCo Level on a consolidated basis should be around 40%. Then it will go down because we will deleverage AEDAS.
Okay. Just a quick follow-up on the politics. Are you willing to play via affordable housing or not it's not a priority for the moment?
Well, Fernando, regarding the affordability houses, we must say that right now, more or less every year, we are delivering around 200 houses of protection. We are delivering, for instance, last year, we did 500 units that we deliver what we call affordable housing that at the end is houses that instead of EUR 300,000 to EUR 400,000 case, as I have said in the presentation, cost between EUR 225,000 to EUR 275,000 and we deliver this type of houses, for instance, near Madrid in the places where we can get to buy land at cheap price.
Regarding affordable housing in the rental segment, we have an active program now with Llei de l'Habitatge de Catalunya that we are building for them 4,700 units. We keep looking the different opportunities that we are seeing with Plan Vive Madrid and others in Valencia or in Navarra. Basically, we need to be very sure before we enter into these operations that we have a clear exit when we get in and that the rentability -- the profitability of the transaction is enough for that exit.
So being a priority to contribute in the affordable housing solution in Spain, we are also very close to the design of these programs in order to try to make them, I think, more profit -- a little bit more profitable and it's something that, for sure, Neinor will play an important role in the following years. Today, it's not in our business plan, but it's something that we work with.
[Operator Instructions] We will take our next question, and the question comes from the line of Manuel Martin from ODDO BHF.
Gentlemen, just one follow-up question and then 2 other questions from my side, please. The potential 5,000 to 6,000 units deliveries per annum, more or less. Just to make sure, this is build-to-sell and from your own portfolio as far as I understood.
Yes. Basically, right now, we are delivering more than just small amounts of affordable housing that are more for the rental segment that both Neinor and AEDAS we are doing, but not too many units. Most of it is build-to-sell product. build-to-rent, private build-to-rent, we are not launching many, many developments because there was a loss of interest in the markets.
The 2 other questions, one general question. I don't know if you can answer that before your AGM comes. In terms of future growth, would it be able for you to indicate whether you would like to grow through JVs or through other acquisitions in the future? Do you have a preference there, which you can share? Or is it a bit too early?
I'll take this one, Manuel. Mario here. Well, we are monitoring always the full on balance investment and the JV co-investment vehicles. We have a queue of investors in our offices. That's the reality because there are less players and the appetite has increased in the last months. So we are selecting very well, which deals we do directly and which ones we prefer to do on that vehicles. So we have flexibility in the budget depending on the best option for our shareholders.
I see. Okay. And third and last question, actually, maybe a bit technical and for curiosity, the Purchase Price Allocation gain you had for 2025, the EUR 50 million to EUR 60 million roughly. Can you give us an insight how you arrived to that amount? Why is it EUR 50 million? Why not EUR 150 million, just for curiosity?
It's a good curiosity. The only thing that this is -- for us, this is not good because as I said before, this is a non-cash item. We -- this implant anticipate part of the future revenue, accounting revenue that we set in the guidance. So for us, the preference was to be at 0 being honest. But this is impossible because accounting rules do not allow that. So what we have done is working with the auditor to try to minimize as much as possible this level or this amount.
It comes from the difference between the valuation from third party, in this case, Savills, non-CBRE and the purchase price finally paid, but also we have included additional structural costs because obviously, one thing is the asset value. Other thing is a corporate company, a corporate that needs to deliver those units. And obviously, we have some structure. So it's a combination. But again, our preference was to be at 0 being honest.
There seems to be no further phone questions, if you wish to proceed with any webcast questions.
Thank you. So we'll go with the webcast now. We have here only one question. It's with regard to the results of the tender offer, the mandatory tender offer that will come out next week. If we can give some details on what is the strategy if we don't reach the squeeze out.
Okay. I take it. I mean, let's see what happens next week. If we get the squeeze out, fantastic. If we don't get the squeeze out as you are questioning, for us, it's also fantastic. I mean, for us, the deal is completed already independently on the percentage that we finally own by next week. We control the company. We control all the policies that's what matters to us. So once the mandatory tender offer is finished and imagining a scenario in which we don't get the squeeze-out -- our focus day after will be the activity of the company.
We will not be there trying to buy again those minority shareholders that want to keep and be in the company, fantastic, we welcome them. But our priority will be completely on activity. That's the reality. Also, that means that the dividend we canceled because we prefer to use the cash to deleverage the company. So dividend distribution is not something relevant today at AEDAS level. This doesn't mean that in Neinor Homes, we will have capacity to reach the guidance we set, and we don't need actually the cash coming from AEDAS to accomplish with these targets for the next 2 years.
Remember that AEDAS has around EUR 300 million of corporate debt; that is the bond plus the commercial paper. As I was saying, that's our priority for the coming 1 year or even 2 years. So whoever is there because we don't reach the squeeze-out, should be a medium- to long-term investor together with us. And one last comment from my side is that in a delisting tender offer, normally, the company, the buyer needs to allow during 1 month potential purchases if minority shareholders want to sell 1 month later, the tender offer. In this case, it's not a delisting. So Neinor is not obliged to continue buying once the mandatory tender offer is fully completed.
Thank you, Jordi. We have no further questions on the webcast. So that concludes the conference call. Thanks, everyone, for joining.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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Neinor Homes — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Neinor Homes — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Neinor Homes 1H '25 Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised today's conference is being recorded.
I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Jose Cravo. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Hi. Good morning, everyone. My name is Jose Cravo, and I'm the Head of Investor Relations at Neinor Homes. Today, we are going to go over results for the first semester of the year '25. And as usual, we are here with Borja Garcia-Egotxeaga, our CEO; Jordi ArgemÃ, our Deputy CEO and CFO; and Mario Lapiedra, our CIO.
We'll start the presentation with the key highlights. Then on Section 2, we will provide a quick summary of the evolution of the Spanish residential market. On Section 3, Jordi will review financial results. And on Section 4, we'll provide a quick update on the voluntary tender offer over AEDAS Homes. And finally, Borja will end up with the key takeaways. After the presentation, there will be a Q&A session to answer any questions you may have.
Now I'll hand over the presentation to our CEO, Borja Garcia-Egotxeaga.
Thank you, Jose. During the first half of the year '25, we have seen probably the best performance in the history of our company. Let's start with the execution. On product launches, construction and commercialization activity, we have delivered an excellent performance in a business that's gaining momentum day by day. During this period, we have also fully integrated the company that we absorbed last year, AEDAS, and now we are operating it with absolute normality.
Now looking ahead to the full year, we are reiterating our full year '25 guidance. By this moment of the year, we have a much better visibility on deliveries as construction has progressed at a strong pace and sales continue to prove just how dynamic the Spanish market is.
Now let's talk about strategy. Following the launch of our voluntary tender offer for AEDAS, we are fast forwarding our investment road map and derisking it at the same time. The platform is growing, but in an equity-efficient way, designed to scale returns and to expand return on equity. We keep year-by-year creating value in a cyclical industry.
And finally, let's talk about the market. Spain's residential market continues to outperform. What we have been saying for the last 3 or 4 years, it's now crystal clear to everyone. Spain is one of the safest residential markets worldwide, offering best-in-class risk-adjusted returns. Demand is solid. Supply is tight and affordability is healthy, especially in our segment. Construction costs are rising modestly with inflation and interest rates coming down. So what does all that mean for us?
It means we are executing in a macro environment that supports our plan, and we are one of the very few players with the scale, the strategy and the balance sheet to capture the upside. So in very few words, execution is strong. Guidance is solid. Our strategy is accelerating, and the market is finally playing in our favor. Please follow me to the next slide.
Here in this slide, as always, we provide a snapshot of Neinor's operational and financial performance. On the left, we highlight the main KPIs that are driving the business forward. Today, we are managing a portfolio of 22,000 units, nearly half of which are fully owned by Neinor. Out of that total, close to 11,000 units are under production and scheduled for delivery over the next 3 years.
And for the first time in our history, our order book exceeds 4,000 units. This means EUR 1.6 billion in future revenues for Neinor and our joint venture partners. Presales reached 1,700 units in the first half, representing a 45% increase year-on-year. And while we have delivered strong growth in sales, a clear reflection of how dynamic the market is, we are also being disciplined on pricing, and we continue to update prices and are now seeing house price increases of 4%, 5% for the year.
This incremental pricing power, combined with construction costs that are rising only in line with inflation provides a solid foundation for margin expansion in the second half of the year and into 2026. Now despite the strong operational momentum, deliveries in the first half have been lower as it was forecasted given that the majority of deliveries are scheduled for the second half of the year. As a result, financials on the right-hand side of the slide appears softer year-to-date.
But let me be clear, we have very good visibility and full confidence in meeting our full year 2025 guidance. Jordi will elaborate on the financial outlook later in the presentation. And now please follow me to the Slide #6.
Now let me walk you through the basics of our business model and explain why Neinor is in the best position to lead in one of the Europe's most fragmented housing markets. As we have mentioned in previous presentations, the Spanish housing market produces roughly 100,000 new homes per year and remains highly fragmented. That fragmentation for us creates opportunities. Neinor has the scale, structure and systems to execute with industrial precision.
On this slide, you see a summary of our industrialized development model built around a clever 5-year stage cycle. Land acquisition, project design and marketing, commercialization, construction and final delivery. Each stage is optimized and the full cycle typically takes around 3 or 4 years. What sets our platform apart is how industrialized and externalized it is and how we have refined it over more than a decade.
Project design is led by our in-house architecture team and executed through a network of over 100 approved studies. Sales and commercialization are outsourced to more than 20 trusted brokerage partners, giving us national reach in an addressable market of 600,000 housing transactions annually. Financing is another strategic strength. Thanks to long-standing relationships with the Spanish banks, we have deep access to a EUR 20 billion CapEx lending market that consistently supports well-structured residential projects.
On the construction side, we operate through a diversified network of 30 contractors, currently managing over 60 active projects. And beyond the operational setup, our geographic reach is key. Neinor has built true capillarity through a network of 7 regional offices, ensuring local presence and market insight at every stage of the value chain.
This structure externalized, decentralized and perfectly designed give us the flexibility to scale the efficiency to protect margins, the ability to deliver through the cycles and to derisk every development from day 1, starting with land acquisition and continue through design, sales and construction. We have the best teams and professionals, the strongest land bank in the country and a business model that is fully equipped to deliver at scale.
Now let's move to the next section, where we will review the fundamentals of the Spanish housing market, which continue to provide the ideal backdrop for our growth. Spain continues to lead the growth charge across developed markets. As you can see on the left side of the slide, GDP is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, well ahead of the U.K., Germany, the euro area and even the U.S. And what's important here is not just the level of growth, but the quality behind it. It's growth driven by a growing population, strong job generation, rising wages, solid private consumption and accumulated savings. Please follow me to the next slide.
Adding to the strength of the economy, the Spanish housing market is benefiting from a combination of lower household leverage and falling interest rates. Since 2008, household debt to GDP has been cut in half, dropping from 85% to just 43% today. At the same time, over the last year, Euribor has come down from 4% to around 2%. This implies cheaper mortgages and better affordability for homebuyers, thereby supporting an increasing housing demand.
Beyond lower leverage, another defining feature of the Spanish housing market is its structurally limited supply. Today, Spain is producing only around 100,000 new houses per year, and that figure has remained broadly stable in recent years. To put it in context, before the financial crisis, the country was producing 500,000 to 600,000 units annually. And the 30-year historical average still sits at around 200,000 homes per year.
Looking ahead, even in a context of a strong and sustained demand with more than 600,000 transactions per year, we do not expect a material increase in supply. This supply situation, combined with healthier household fundamentals is what makes the Spanish market resilient to external macroeconomic shocks like the ones we have seen in recent years.
In addition to a strong macro fundamentals, declining leverage, lower interest rates and limited housing supply, it's important to highlight that real house prices in Spain remain [ 20% ] below precrisis levels on real terms. Only in 2024, price grew faster than the overall inflation.
Furthermore, if we look at the house price-to-income ratios, they remain healthy. Among Neinor clients, this ratio typically sits between 4 to 5x annual income, which is well below peak levels and reflects our positioning in the mid- to high segment of demand. All of this supports our view that the Spanish housing market continues to offer upside and remains well positioned for several more years and healthy performance.
And now I give the word to Jordi to go with the financials and a quick update on the AEDAS transaction.
Thank you, Borja. Let me start with the key operational and financial highlights in Slide 13. We have materialized a total of 803 units during the semester, of which 421 were fully owned by Neinor and 381 were delivered through our asset management platform. This delivery level is fully in line with our internal forecast since the vast majority of our developments are scheduled to complete in the second half of the year.
On the revenue side, we recorded EUR 148 million, broken down as follows: EUR 112 million from our core build-to-sell business with 323 units delivered at an average selling price of EUR 348,000 per unit. EUR 9 million in management fees from our Asset Management division and EUR 27 million from Ancillary revenues basically includes land sales, construction services and rental income.
In terms of margins, I would like to highlight that this was our best first half in 5 years. We achieved gross margin -- gross development margin of over 30%, driven by 28%, 29% margin in our build-to-sell business and higher margin contributions from the Asset Management and Ancillary divisions. Below gross margins, financial performance reflects the seasonality in which we have lower delivery volume in H1. Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 18 million and net income of EUR 6 million.
Now looking at the balance sheet. We ended the semester with EUR 334 million in net debt, which implies a loan-to-value of 22.9%, right in line with our target range of 20% to 30%. It's important to note that this figure excludes EUR 228 million of equity raised for the AEDAS transaction since from a conservative point of view, we treat it as restricted cash. With this said, and given that we generate the vast majority of the results in second half of the year, let me reiterate our full year 2025 guidance. EBITDA should range EUR 100 million and EUR 110 million as promised.
Now please follow me to the next slide, where I will provide an update on the Neinor's asset rotation program. As you may remember, the crystallization of the build-to-rent portfolio was one of the critical decisions in our strategic plan. Today, we can proudly say that we are done. We have successfully closed agreements for a total amount of EUR 325 million, covering more than 1,300 units and achieving a gross development margin of around 25%. The remainder of the portfolio, which means around 400 units and EUR 80 million of value will be monetized through a granular build-to-sell strategy.
This divestment has supported the execution of the 2 pillars of our strategic plan defined in 2023. On one side, shareholder remuneration and on the other, equity efficient growth, which at the end of the day, what we look for is to recycle capital into higher IRR projects above 20% to alternatively accelerate distributions to shareholders, optimizing the balance sheet.
In the next slide, you can see with what we have recycled the capital. As you can see on the left-hand side of this slide, since 2023, we have acquired land for more than 31,000 housing units, strategically located across Spain's most dynamic regions, being Madrid the most relevant region accounting for almost 50% of total units.
In terms of value, we have already executed EUR 1.8 billion in land investment in only 2 years, and this compares to the 5 years target of EUR 1 billion. I would say that this is the direct result of the track record we have built and the confidence we have earned from both public and private investors. With such relevant investment, we are not in a rush to continue investing.
Having said this, it's true that we still see compelling opportunities in the Spanish market. As you can see in this slide, we currently have around EUR 350 million of potential land deals under analysis, representing about 3,000 new units. That said, we remain as disciplined and selective as ever, and we will only deploy capital where it's accretive for our shareholders.
Now please follow me to the Slide #17, so that we can provide an update on the AEDAS transaction. As said in previous calls, this is a transformational move for Neinor. And despite it doesn't depend on us, we are on track to close it by end of this year 2025. Let me begin with the offer price.
Following the EUR 136 million dividend paid by AEDAS in July, which means EUR 3.15 per share, the offer price has been adjusted from EUR 24,485 to EUR 21,334 per share. On the funding side, execution has been outstanding. We completed an accelerated book build at EUR 15.25 per share, a 10% premium to pre-deal levels, raising EUR 228 million and issuing close to 15 million new shares.
Demand was exceptionally strong. This deal was 6x oversubscribed with solid support from institutional investors, which also has implied an increase of the free float and liquidity. Since announcement, Neinor's share price has increased by more than 25%, and this is a clear sign that the market recognizes the strategic and financial rationale of the deal.
Now in terms of regulatory and execution steps, we have submitted all required filings to the FDI authority and to the CNMC, which, as you know, is the antitrust regulator. Also, the tender offer application has already been submitted to the CNV and once authorized, the prospectus will be published. Following that, the acceptance period will begin. And within that window, AEDAS' Board should publish its formal opinion on the offer.
And finally, Neinor will seek shareholder approval at the General Shareholders' Meeting, which we expect to hold before the settlement of the deal. So in summary, the time line is progressing as planned. The funding is secured, the shareholder support is strong and the market has clearly endorsed the transaction.
Now I will hand the presentation back to Borja for the closing remarks.
Thank you, Jordi. Before we move to the Q&A, let me leave you with 4 key messages that define who we are and where we are headed. First, Neinor is operating a fully scalable industrialized platform. After a decade of refinement, we have built a model that delivers consistently, efficiently and at scale across regions, across cycles and across partners.
Second, we are exposed to one of the strongest housing markets in Europe. The Spanish residential market is structurally undersupplied, demographically supported and fundamentally healthy. This is not cyclical. It's sustainable growth, and we are perfectly positioned to lead it.
Third, we are growing with profitability. Margins are expanding powered by pricing discipline, cost control and operational leverage of a platform that we can easily scale. And fourth, we remain, like always, very disciplined. We maintain conservative leverage, make selective capital allocations and run a flexible model that adapts quickly no matter the macro conditions. That's how we scale without compromising returns, and that's how we protect shareholders' value.
In summary, we are growing with intention, we are performing with margin, and we are investing with a clear focus on long-term value creation.
And now let's move please to your questions.
[Operator Instructions] We will start with a question from the phone lines. Your question is from the line of Fernando Abril-Martorell from Alantra.
2. Question Answer
I have 4, please. First, on the construction activities, how many units did you start constructing in the first half on your core BTS and fully owned land bank? And also, how many units did you have in WIP and finished by the end of this first half?
Second, regarding asset rotation that you've mentioned before, have you included any more land sales in your fiscal '25 guidance? Third, on your NAV bridge, can you confirm that the capital increase proceeds are included in the working capital and other line? If so, and excluding, I think you paid out around EUR 100 million dividends this year. So NAV appears broadly flat more or less, excluding the dividend payment. Is that correct? And then last one, in the event you fully acquire AEDAS, could this allow you to accelerate your JV investment commitments tied in Neinor with AEDAS landbank?
Borja, you start with the first question on the construction activity.
Yes. Those are a lot of questions, Fernando. Okay. First, on the construction activity that you were asking. Right now, we have under construction nearly 7,000 houses. It's not the exact number, it's like 6,700 or something like this. During the first part of the year, we have starting the commercialization of around 1,300 units, and we still expect to launch another 2,200 units to start commercialization. That will mean the new cranes that we will be put in.
Regarding the [ frescos ], you know that our frescos are just the units that we start the design are the real launches. During the first half, we have approved 13 new developments, which represents 1,500 units. So basically, I will say also just to complement a little bit to your question that from the point of view of construction, all the construction for the delivery of this year is advancing well.
The last -- the finished, the end of the construction of the last developments that we have to deliver this year is expected to happen during summer. We have an important development, a couple of important developments in the area of Marbella called Santa Clara and Selene that we expect [ CFO ] by the last week of August, first week in September. So we should have time enough to deliver in the Q4.
Okay. I take the second question, Fernando. In regards to asset rotation land sales for this year in our internal numbers, we had EUR 25 million in value, okay? And regarding your third question on the net asset value that is flat, you are right. But it's true that basically, we have had a negative impact coming from Los Carriles that has implied EUR 20 million, EUR 30 million of impact negative or reduction, let's say, excluding that because there is a delay. So I know that you might be aware of that. So if you exclude this EUR 20 million, EUR 30 million impact, that implies the net asset value could have increased by 2%, roughly, which for 6 months makes sense and -- but it is conservative.
And the last one, I don't know, Mario…
Yes, I'm taking the fourth one regarding the acceleration of JVs. Yes, we commented that on the base case in the underwriting of AEDAS portfolio, we are assuming around 3,000, 4,000 units that would go for sale assets, mostly to feed our JV business and this is still in place. We will analyze the evolution of the portfolio as settlement, and we will close the final strategy and allocation to the different JVs and partners.
We'll now take our next question. This is from Manuel Martin from ODDO BHF.
Two questions from my side. You had a gross margin of 30% in the first half year, if I saw that correctly. The guidance for 2025 is heading towards 28%. That means that in H2, the gross margin should be below 28%. Can you give us a bit of flavor on what's going to drive that margin coming down?
Well, it's a matter of product mix. So obviously, each development has its own margin. And depending on what we deliver, we recognize gross margin on other. And H1 is not representative because it's very low level of deliveries. But if you look annual guidance, 27%, 28%, whatever, you want to consider is quite similar to what we did in the past, in the last year that was 27%.
Okay. Understood. Second question, it's on the upcoming merger of AEDAS. What's your scenario given that Castlelake is going to tender 79%? What do you think will happen with the other shareholders, the remaining 21%? Have you heard anything about whether they would like to tender or not? Or which scenarios could you imagine, including a possible squeeze out and at which price? Maybe you can elaborate on that, please?
Well, you know that we did a voluntary tender offer, and we go for 100%. In regards to the price, for us, it's obviously is an equitable price basically because there has been a process in the market trying to sell the company, and we have been the ones putting the best offer on the table. So for us, it's equitable.
What will do the minority shareholders, we don't know. We will have open the acceptance period. So let's see. In any case, for us, it's voluntary. So either if they accept, we squeeze out, is fantastic. And if they don't accept, there will not be a squeeze out. So we are quite open there.
[Operator Instructions] There are no questions on the phones at the moment. So I will hand back to Jose to check for any questions from the webcast.
Thank you, operator. We have here some questions that I'll go through in different groups. The first question is on commercialization. If we can provide some indication of where the coverage ratios for the year '25, '26 and '27 stand as of today? Mario?
Yes, perfect. We are close to 90% of coverage ratio for the units to be delivered in 2025. For 2026, we are reaching the 60%. And for 2027, we have touched the 20%. And in our view and based on the curves of the business plan, we are a bit ahead of the sales curve, but we are maintaining this balance between volume and HPA caption. So we are comfortable with the performance of this semester, and we will try to keep as disciplined as possible with the sales curve, not anticipating too much volume.
Thank you, Mario. Then we have here another question on the land market, saying if we expect any acquisitions beyond the transaction we are currently doing with AEDAS. And what's the overall environment that you see on the Spanish market?
Okay. Well, our main focus is to close the AEDAS transaction, as you can imagine, and digest that portfolio that would generate a lot of alternatives and a lot of possibilities to feed our JVs as we have commented before. But once said that, we have already a pipeline of EUR 350 million and more than 3,000 units, 50% in Madrid and the rest between Malaga, Valencia and Basque Country mainly. And depending on the cash available and the different alternatives that we had post-closing of AEDAS transaction, we will execute. But always, as commented, very disciplined and with this 20% IRR and 1.8x multiple as target.
And regarding the global environment, well, we see good momentum on the macro, as Borja commented in the presentation. There are a few opportunities as there is a high scarcity of land, but we feel that we are the main player to get to that opportunities due to our granularity, due to our size, due to our capacity to generate that business. And as commented, we have a good pipeline. So all in all, we are in good shape.
Thank you, Mario. Now I hear some questions for Jordi. One on if we are seeing further consolidation opportunities in the Spanish market and how Neinor will approach this?
Yes. I mean, still there are funds behind some corporates that they will need to exit at some point in time. So it's quite obvious that there will be opportunities sooner than later. In our case, I mean, I think that we first need to digest that AEDAS, that is still we are in the process to get the settlement.
And in any case, must be accretive for our shareholders. So it's not that we will jump to the opportunities because we need to grow. It's not the case. It's a matter of trying to put a solution structure that makes sense for our shareholders. If it applies the opportunity, we will jump.
Thank you, Jordi. And then another one, if we could remind the financial policy post-merger regarding leverage and the credit rating.
Yes, absolutely. Remember that our policy was to have a 20% to 30% loan-to-value. And Neinor Homes, this is what we committed always in the last 10 years, also in the last bond issuance done in November of 2024. So this has not changed. It's true that if -- that we have the nonrecourse or ring-fenced structure of AEDAS transaction, which we put more leverage there.
So combining or considering also the nonrecourse debt, loan-to-value would be between 37.5% and 40% in the next 1 year, 2 years. But given that there is the leverage profile assumed in a transaction, after these 2 years, we will come back to the 23% loan-to-value also including the nonrecourse debt.
Thank you, Borja. And then we have here a question perhaps for -- thank you, Jordi, sorry. We have a question for Borja on the impact of the 100% tax on the property purchased by non-EU residents on the demand for [indiscernible], particularly in the markets with higher foreign buyer activity.
Well, really, we don't expect any impact at all. First, because less than 3% or 4% on a yearly basis of our sales are to non-EU residents. So even if this measure could be approved, it wouldn't have any impact in our normal activity. But moreover, we don't really think that this measure could be implemented in any region.
At the end, in Spain, the decision to increase such taxes is not on the Spanish government. It's more on the regions. And basically, the regions who want to protect more this type of transactions with non-EU foreigners are the touristic regions, and they are not interested at all in approving or implementing such a measure. So no impact at all.
Thank you, Borja. And then here another question more on the market. How do you see the market and the cycle evolving in the next few years after several years where house prices have been going up year after year, how much longer can this go? And how do we see affordability in the market and for Neinor clients?
Well, as we have explained many times in the past, the Spanish residential sector has little leverage. The supply is very limited and demand has been growing as the economy is strong and interest rates started to decline. So in terms of housing prices, we will note that real prices that is to say adjusted for inflation, they have barely recovered since 2014. More importantly, when you look at the ratios of affordability, they don't look stretched.
The problem young families have to buy an apartment is not to pay the mortgages. It's to make the down payment. So these people are being forced to be in the rental market even though they could afford to pay mortgages. And this creates an excess of demand in the rental market that looks way more expensive. If you look at the rental market in Spain, it has been growing from 17% to 21% in the last 5 years, and this is what is creating this expenses in prices. So as we have explained, we see room still for house prices on sales to keep increasing in the coming years.
Thank you, Borja. We don't have any further questions, operator. So I guess we will finish the session with the first half results. And if you have any questions or doubts, we are ready to take it offline, okay? Thank you, everyone.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.
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Neinor Homes — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
Neinor Homes — Aedas Homes, S.A., Neinor Homes, S.A. - M&A Call
1. Management Discussion
Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. My name is Jose Cravo, and I'm the Head of Investor Relations at Neinor Homes. Today is a very special day for Neinor as we are announcing the transformational transaction that will shape the future of the Spanish residential sector. As usual, we are here with Borja Garcia-Egotxeaga, our CEO; Jordi Argemí, our Deputy CEO and CFO; and Mario Lapiedra, our CIO.
We will start the presentation with the key highlights of the transaction. Then on Section 2, Jordi will explain the terms, the structure and the rationale. On Section 3, Mario will go through the overview of AEDAS and the portfolio underwriting. On Section 4, Jordi will provide an update of Neinor's strategic plan post transaction, and Borja will finish with the key takeaways. After the presentation, there will be a Q&A session to answer any questions you may have.
Now I'll hand over the presentation to our CEO, Borja Garcia-Egotxeaga.
Thank you, Jose. Before we get into the details, I want to emphasize today, we are facing an extraordinary milestone for Neinor Homes and for the Spanish residential real estate sector as a whole. We are proud to announce the launch of a voluntary takeover offer for up to 100% of AEDAS Homes with the full support and agreement of its main shareholder, Castlelake. This is a huge transformational transaction for Neinor.
Please let me start this presentation highlighting 3 aspects. First, the opportunistic returns in scale and the risk portfolio. We are acquiring a high-quality cherry-picked portfolio of over 20,200 units, 50% located in Madrid, one of the largest metropolitan areas in Europe and Spain's most liquid and dynamic housing market. This portfolio offers strong cash flow visibilities, over 9,000 units currently under construction and nearly 4,000 units presold, representing EUR 1.7 billion in secured future revenues. And we are doing this with conservative underwriting, a 30% discount to NAV and acquiring land at just EUR 634 per square meter. This is one of the most attractive entry points we have seen combining quality, location and visibility with deeply compelling economics.
The second message is that this is accretive for shareholders from day 1. We are committing EUR 1.07 billion, EUR 750 million through senior secured notes and EUR 500 million in equity fully committed by Neinor and the main key long-term shareholders. This structure delivers outstanding returns, targeting plus 20% IRR and 1.8 multiple, EUR 450 million uplift in net income by 2030 and EUR 900 million of net cash flows, allowing EUR 500 million in shareholder distributions over the next 3 years. It is also equity efficient, driving return on equity to 15% to 20% by 2027, with loan-to-value remaining under 30%. Simply put, we are scaling profitability and with discipline. This deal accelerates our strategic plan without compromising on risk or quality.
And the third big message is that we are positioning Neinor as the leading residential platform in Spain. With this transaction, Neinor will control the largest land bank in Spain, over 43,200 units, including 27,000 fully owned. This is a national footprint with real scarcity value. We are becoming the go-to platform for institutional capital, public and private, seeking long-term exposure to the Spanish residential market, the fastest-growing economy in Europe. We are also reaffirming our leadership in affordable and social housing, where Neinor is delivering scale, purpose and public-private alignment.
And finally, we are unlocking operational synergies. Our combined platform allows us to scale more efficiently in an undersupplied market, improving cost structures and accelerating delivery capacities. Most important, we are bringing together the best people and platforms in the sector. This is a powerful step forward operationally, financially and strategically. We are not just building homes, we are building the future of residential real estate in Europe.
Now I pass the word to Jordi and Mario, who will explain the transaction, the strategic lines, the uplifts for Neinor Homes and the portfolio underwriting.
Thank you, Borja. Let's move to the next section, the transaction terms and rationale. In Slide 6, you can see the structure and mechanics of the offer. First, we have set up a ring-fenced SPV fully owned by Neinor with EUR 1.2 billion of committed funding in place. This includes EUR 750 million of senior secured notes initially subscribed by Apollo and EUR 500 million of equity, out of which EUR 225 million comes from cash at Neinor level and EUR 225 million comes from a capital increase in Neinor Homes being fully underwritten by our key main shareholders.
Second, the offer is a voluntary tender for 100% of AEDAS priced at EUR 24.485 per share. After adjusting the dividend and treasury stock, the effective acquisition price comes to EUR 21.335 per share, which implies a total acquisition price of EUR 922 million. Third aspect, we have secured a hard irrevocable commitment from Castlelake, which holds 79% of AEDAS. It gives us strong visibility and momentum towards the closing.
And fourth and last aspect, the authorization required to close the deal. On one side, the approval by Neinor's GSM. This is a mere formality as we gather full support from the largest owner of both companies. On the other side, we need clearance by the CNMC, which is the antitrust authority, and by CNMV, which is the market regulator. Regarding antitrust, we don't expect any issue nor remedy since the Spanish housing market is highly fragmented and the 2 portfolios are complementary. And regarding market regulator, we need the approval of the prospectus of the voluntary tender offer.
And finally, we need green light from the Foreign Direct Investment Board, but also we are confident that we will secure this as Neinor is a Spanish company. So we expect all these milestones to be concluded by the fourth quarter of the year. Bottom line, this is a clean, fully funded transaction with a high degree of execution visibility.
With that said, let's move to the next slide. On this slide, I would like to highlight 3 main ideas. First, the quality of the land bank and the significant level of execution already embedded in this portfolio. Mario will go into further details later in this presentation, but it's important to emphasize that it is not a speculative pipeline. It is a high-conviction and high-visibility portfolio.
Second, the returns. We are targeting opportunistic IRRs of over 20% and a cash-on-cash multiple above 1.8x. These metrics are supported by 2 key elements: the acquisition price at a 3% discount to net asset value and in line with book value. This means we are acquiring premium quality portfolio at a very attractive entry point. And the second element is that the speed at which we can derisk investment. We expect a full payback within the 3 years, thanks to AEDAS' active and highly liquid portfolio.
Let's now look at some additional investment highlights. Our underwriting approach is intentionally conservative. We have to assume no housing price appreciation beyond today's market levels. If we were to increase this by just a modest 2.5%, it would generate an additional EUR 100 million in profit, pushing IRR to 25% and the multiple to -- cash-on-cash multiple to above 2x. To put that in context, Spain has experienced annual price depreciation of 4% to 5% in recent years.
Our acquisition approach is also conservative. The order book of EUR 1.1 billion will generate roughly EUR 600 million of net cash that, together with existing cash at the target level adjusted by the dividend, implies that more than 75% of the purchase price is already covered. This means, in other words, that we significantly limit the downside risk through a quality -- high-quality liquid portfolio while retaining upside potential on the remaining land bank. Also important to comment that our assumptions exclude synergies. We are not relying on procurement and commercialization savings for this deal. Instead, our focus is on operational excellence, on executing well running the 2 entities.
Strategically, this transaction improves Neinor's scale and position us as the leading residential platform in Spain, as Borja was saying 1 minute ago. And finally, this company will play a meaningful role in the Spanish society. As shown in Section #2 of the appendix, Neinor and AEDAS together will deliver nearly 9,000 affordable rental homes, half in Barcelona and half in Madrid.
In Slide 8, you can see that post transaction, we will manage a land bank of approximately 43,000 residential units, making us the leading residential platform in Spain and one of the largest in Europe. 64% of this land bank is fully owned. The rest is managed through third-party and asset management agreements, delivering capital-light exposure and recurring fee income. As you can see in the map, the portfolio is well diversified but also strategically concentrated. Almost 40% is in the Central region, including Madrid, the most dynamic housing market in Spain. And this is not just land, it's high-quality projects and in the best regions.
With that said, follow me to the next slide. This slide highlights how Neinor has established itself as the partner of choice for institutional investors seeking exposure to the Spanish residential market. Now with this deal, we truly believe we will continue to scale Neinor's asset management business in the coming years, fueling equity growth -- equity-efficient growth into future earnings.
With that said, let's move to the next slide. To conclude this section, I would like to emphasize that the current macroeconomic situation further enhances the value of this transaction. First, Spain is expected to continue leading GDP growth in the coming years, being above European countries and even above the U.S. Second, interest rates are also decreasing, being now at around 2%. And this shift is significant. It indicates that inflation is under control. And more important, it improves affordability for our clients who can now access more favorable financing for the homes we deliver.
With this said, let's move to the next slide to take a closer look at the fundamentals of the Spanish residential market. This slide highlights some of the key factors that make Spain one of the most resilient and attractive residential markets globally. On the demand side, over the past 5 years, we have been -- or we have seen a strong acceleration in both population growth and household creation. Looking ahead over the next 5 years, which aligns with the period during which we will monetize for the AEDAS portfolio, forecast suggests that these trends will not only continue but may even accelerate further.
And on the supply side, housing production remain constrained. Today, we are delivering approximately 100,000 to 110,000 new units annually, a figure that may increase slightly but will still be below by far the underlying demand. All in all, this is a great transaction and the macro and micro situation should amplify its potential.
With that, I will now pass the word to Mario that will comment on the underwriting of the portfolio.
Thank you, Jordi. In this section 3, I will walk you through the core and basics of the transaction that are the assets of AEDAS' portfolio and our underwriting approach, which, as mentioned earlier, has been always conservative and very disciplined. Let's start with the asset perimeter. AEDAS brings approximately 20,000 residential units, out of which 75% comes from the fully owned perimeter, main driver of the transaction, and then residual 15% coming from the existing JVs with third parties and 10% from units only managed without equity stake.
By use, 80% of the portfolio is dedicated to build-to-sell, core business as for Neinor Homes with very strong fundamentals. 12% are concessions from public-private collaborations and finally, a minimal exposure to flex living and build-to-rent.
By location, all the units are located in the most dynamic markets in Spain and where the imbalance between supply and demand is more obvious. But clearly, the jewel of the portfolio is the exposure to Madrid with almost 50% of the total units concentrated in this market that today is one of the most dynamic worldwide. The rest are located in Levante region with 17% of the units in Valencia and Alicante mostly, 14% in first residential locations in the South region as Málaga and Seville, 10% in prime areas for second resi in Costa del Sol and finally, residual exposure to Catalonia and Basque Country.
In summary, all locations are highly complementary to Neinor exposure and markets we know very well. Finally, I would like to highlight the liquidity and advanced execution stage of this portfolio with almost 70% of the units active and $1.7 billion order book. This level of maturity provides strong short-term cash flow visibility and significantly reduce execution risk, a key consideration in our underwriting.
Let's move to the next slide. On this slide, we are zooming in on the portfolio in the Madrid region. Some years ago, when we acquired Quabit, one of the main asset drivers was the Alovera hub that years after has been demonstrated as a big success. But by that time, we needed to make an effort to educate the capital markets community in this location rationale. Today, the main driver of AEDAS' portfolio do not need deep explanation as it is a no-brainer investment with exposure in consolidated Madrid markets as Berrocales, Ahijones or Valdecarros in the Southeast, portfolio of Retamar or Brunete in the high-end areas of the West and Castellana Norte or Carriles in the North.
When we layer this on to Neinor's existing positions in the North with Los Carriles and in the East with Alovera, we are effectively creating what we believe is the most strategic and best positioned land portfolio in the Madrid region. Altogether, we are talking about nearly 9,000 units in Madrid to be delivered over the coming years with strong diversification, excellent fundamentals and substantial value creation potential. I want to emphasize that Madrid is currently the second largest metropolitan area in Continental Europe and one of the regions with the strongest projected population growth in the coming years, making it a highly strategic market for residential development.
If we move into the next slide, we are going to translate all of this into euros. On this slide, we detail our conservative underwriting approach of the fully owned portfolio that is composed of more than 15,000 units that will generate EUR 5.1 billion in revenues without applying any HPA and EUR 900 million contribution margin. At the top of the slide in red, you can see the 6,400 units of the portfolio that are currently under production, which includes finished product, work in progress and projects under commercialization. This bucket is generating EUR 2.5 billion of revenues, out of which circa EUR 1 billion is already presold and EUR 300 million contribution margin in the next 3 years.
As you can see on the expected GDV by bucket, our average selling price range from EUR 2,900 per square meter to EUR 3,500 per square meter, demonstrating our conservative approach and that we keep the affordability as an important KPI. And on the margin distribution, we have done, as always, a risk-return balance, applying 5% contribution margin to the finished product, 13% average margin to the WIP and 18% margin for the developments under commercialization.
At the bottom in black, we show the land bank, representing circa 9,000 units and generating EUR 2.6 billion in revenues and EUR 600 million contribution margin. By strategy, we have split the land bank between assets to be developed and the land to sell assets. The to develop bucket are the land plots that we can develop and deliver before 2030, generating a GDV of EUR 2 billion with euro square meter of EUR 3,600 and a contribution margin of 20%.
The sale assets bucket are very good land plots that we foresee to use them mainly to fit our asset management business or that we will not be able to develop and deliver before 2030 because of concentration, urbanization phase, et cetera, but -- mainly some phases of Berrocales, Ahijones or Valdecarros and prime assets as Montegancedo portfolio or Carriles in Alcobendas. In this bucket, we are applying an average exit price, fully urbanized, of EUR 1,300 per square meter with a contribution margin of 30%.
Finally, I want to highlight the acquisition price. With the underwriting explained above, without HPA, we are acquiring the full portfolio at EUR 1,000 a square meter. And if we exclude the finished product and the WIP, we are acquiring the land at EUR 634 a square meter average. This represents a fantastic entry price, more in line with individual land prices of 3 or 4 years ago.
Please follow me to the next 2 slides so that you can get a sense of both active and nonactive land bank. Here, we have highlighted some representative projects that are either under construction or already completed. As you can see, there is a diverse mix of product types, including multifamily, single-family and detached homes. From a product standpoint, this is a high-quality, well-designed housing targeted at the mid- to high segment of Spain's residential market with average unit prices ranging from EUR 300,000 to EUR 1 million, very similar to the product we deliver in Neinor.
Now let's move to Slide 18 and take a closer look to the top land bank assets. On this slide, we have highlighted the top 10 land bank assets that showcase the quality of the portfolio. These 10 assets represent almost 40% of the portfolio with potential to develop over 5,000 units, mostly in Madrid and other top tier regions, and we are acquiring them below EUR 1,000 per square meter. At this entry price, just holding the land plots the next 3 years and selling them would be doing a 1.5, 1.6x multiple. In other words, the future margins are highly derisked from the operational execution due to the low entry price and the solid fundamentals of supply and demand.
Please follow me to the next slide to conclude with this section. On this slide, we present the illustrative and aggregated P&L for AEDAS through 2030. The chart above outlines the annual delivery schedule, not including the land sales. As you can see, it's relatively stable, ranging from 1,500 to 2,000 units per year with a lower estimation in 2025 in order to be conservative and at peak in 2026 because of the catch-up of the previous year and the deliveries coming from the [ Plan B ], the public-private collaboration. This delivery calendar is intentionally more conservative than AEDAS' stand-alone plan, reflecting our disciplined execution approach.
In addition to these figures, another 4,000 units are expected to be sold as land, as commented before, and contributing to our monetization strategy. Regarding the cumulative P&L of the figure, you can observe the EUR 5.1 billion GDV discussed that represents EUR 380,000 per unit, generating a EUR 1.3 billion gross margin, EUR 1 billion of contribution margin and a net income, as Jordi mentioned at the beginning, of EUR 450 million.
As a conclusion of this section, we have in front of us an exceptional land portfolio in the top markets of Spain acquired at prices of 3, 4 years ago and with a conservative operational underwriting.
And now I hand over the presentation back to Jordi.
Thank you, Mario. Over the next few slides, we will revisit the key 5-year objectives explained in our strategic plan that remember, it was presented in March 2023. Please note that all figures shown will reflect our position prior to the acquisition of AEDAS.
Let's move to Slide 21. In this slide, we revisit one of the 2 strategic pillars, the shareholder remuneration. As you may remember, we initially committed to a remuneration of EUR 600 million at a time when our market capitalization was just EUR 700 million roughly. To date, we have paid EUR 325 million, which represents 60% of our 5-year objective. And at the same time, our market cap has grown to slightly over EUR 1 billion. This means that we have created value for our shareholders for a total of EUR 600 million plus already, EUR 300 million plus in dividends and EUR 300 million in share price appreciation.
On the right-hand side of this slide, you can see the 3 key factors that have allowed us to make the distributions. First, we successfully sold our build-to-rent portfolio at attractive development margins of 25%, which has unlocked EUR 325 million in cash. Second, we reduced land acquisition using our own equity during the years 2023 and 2024. And third, we delivered strong margins in our core business operations. Finally, it's important to emphasize that we have achieved all this while maintaining a conservative loan-to-value ratio in the range of 20% and 30% as promised.
In the next slide, you can see the second strategic pillar, our equity-efficient growth strategy. As you may remember, we initially set the target to raise and invest EUR 500 million in opportunities generating annual returns of over 20% for Neinor. As we have illustrated, that guidance was very conservative. In just 2 years, we have raised EUR 1.2 billion from a range of institutional investors. Of that, EUR 900 million have already been invested, which means almost 2x what we promised for a 5-year period.
In the meantime, we also refinanced a few months ago our corporate debt through a bond issuance. This has allowed us to have strong cash position to afford this deal of AEDAS. And finally, we communicated to the capital markets that through the optimization of our balance sheet and equity-efficient earnings growth, we were targeting a return on equity of around 15% by 2027.
With this said, follow me to the next slide, where you will see how the acquisition of AEDAS positions us to go faster and beyond the objective initially defined in our strategic plan. Let's begin with the shareholder remuneration in Slide 24. As previously mentioned, our original plan was to distribute EUR 600 million to shareholders by 2027.
Following the transaction and the contribution from AEDAS, we are now increasing the target up to EUR 850 million. This represents an additional EUR 250 million, which is an increase of 44% in absolute terms and approximately 30% on DPS basis. Also represents that we plan to distribute EUR 500 million in the next 2 years. And if we look at the coming 5 years, Neinor has the capacity to distribute over EUR 1 billion of dividends, which demonstrates our focus on shareholders.
Now let's move on to the next slide to look at the projected impact on net income and return on equity. This slide follows the same structure as the previous one. First, as shown in the red column, our original strategic plan projected EUR 360 million in net income between 2023 and 2027. Today, with the contribution from AEDAS, represented by the black columns, we now expect to exceed EUR 500 million in the same period. This implies an increase of 40% in absolute terms compared to the original plan and more than 25% on a per share basis.
It is important to note that these projections do not include yet the potential impact of the PPA, which may temporarily increase the net income in 2025 and reduce it proportionally in subsequent years. Finally, thanks to all this, we are confident that not only we will meet our 15% return on equity, but we will increase it up to 20%.
Let's take a look at the leverage in the following slide, #26. This slide shows the evolution of Neinor's loan-to-value ratio. As you can see, during the first 2 years of our strategic plan, we maintained a conservative loan-to-value well below the 23% range that we promised. Looking ahead, we expect Neinor's loan-to-value to remain in the range I have said, even considering the shareholder remuneration announced today. It's important to note that the debt associated with AEDAS is nonrecourse to Neinor and therefore, not included in these figures.
However, for transparency, the black line of the chart illustrates what Neinor's LTV will look like if AEDAS debt was treated as recourse. In that scenario, the loan-to-value would exceed the 23% range, but this is fully aligned with what we have always communicated to the market that may be temporarily exceeding the range when closing strategic high-value opportunities like the one we are presenting today. Lastly, as you can see, from 2027 onwards, even when we include the nonrecourse debt, we expect the loan-to-value to be within the 20% to 30% range.
Let's go to the last slide. This slide illustrates the impact of the transaction on capital markets perception and valuation of Neinor. On the left-hand side, you can see current Bloomberg consensus estimates, EUR 79 million in net income for 2026 and EUR 85 million for 2027. Following the transaction, we expect these figures to increase by approximately 65% and 88%, respectively. And this uplift is not limited to just those 2 years. AEDAS is projected to contribute an additional EUR 300 million in profits beyond 2027, further supporting long-term earnings growth.
On the right-hand side, we illustrate the implicit price earnings post transaction. Taking into account these revised estimates, Neinor will be trading at 7.5x price earnings for 2026 and just 5x in 2027. This is half of the multiples in U.K. So as you can imagine, we see a lot of potential value embedded for our shareholders.
And now I hand over the presentation back to Borja for the key takeaways.
Thank you, Jordi. Now let me bring this session to a close by stepping back and zooming out. Let's talk about the big picture. Spain is facing a structural housing crisis, a production deficit over 1 million homes today projected to increase up to 1.8 million by 2030, the equivalent of around 18 years of output. This isn't cyclical. This is structural, and Neinor is essential to help to solve this gap. With a high-quality land bank of 43,000 units fully entitled and ready to execute, we control the most important and ready-to-go residential pipeline in the country. In a market defined by scarcity, we own the best asset visibility.
But it's more than scale. It's mission. We are building homes, yes. But we are also building economic resilience, social impact and a platform for institutional capital to deploy at scale into the most fundamentally sound resi market in Europe. This transaction is not just about growth. It's about leadership in profitability, in purpose and in performance.
Neinor's journey over the past years tells a powerful and consistent story: execution, profitability and capital discipline across every phase of the cycle. Since 2017, we have delivered over 13,000 homes, generated more than EUR 4.5 billion in revenues and built one of the most efficient, scalable residential development models in the market. We have deployed more than EUR 3 billion with precision, delivering industry-leading margins without compromising return thresholds. Since 2023, we are scaling our asset management platform to tap into institutional capital at speed and scale. We have deployed close to EUR 1 billion in equity-efficient structures that drive enhanced returns and reduce risk for our shareholders.
Over the next 5 years, this platform will allow us to deliver around 30,000 new homes, profitability predictably and with full control of our capital stack. This is the power of a platform built to outperform in a market across every cycle and with one goal: long-term compounding value creation.
And with that, we conclude today's presentation of Neinor's voluntary takeover offer for AEDAS Homes. But let's be clear, this is not just an acquisition. This is a step change. We are operating in the right market at the right time. Spain's residential sector is backed strong -- by strong macro fundamentals. Supply is structurally short, demand is real, and the growth runway stretches well into the next decade.
Neinor sits right at the center of this momentum. We are fully consolidated platform with a best-in-class track record. We have done this before, and we'll do it again with speed, discipline and zero disruption. This transaction allows us to derisk and accelerate our road map, pushing beyond the '23-'27 strategic plan and delivering superior returns ahead of schedule. It is highly accretive, financially sound and fully aligned with our commitment to shareholder value.
And above all, this is a rare investment opportunity. We are unlocking deep value in Europe's fastest-growing and most stable residential market at a moment when access, scale and execution matter more than ever. This is how you build the scale. This is how you compound value, and this is how you create the best residential platform in Europe.
Thank you very much, and now we can go to the Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Ignacio Domínguez from JB Capital.
2. Question Answer
I have 2, if I may. Firstly, could you remind us on the cost and maturity of the senior secured notes? And my second question is about the AEDAS green bond refinancing. How much do you expect to earmark for the bond refinancing and if there are changing control clauses?
Okay. Regarding your first question, in the senior secured notes, it's basically 4 years maturity, 25% repayment on an annual basis, okay? And the cost is in our presentation, okay? Euribor plus 525 bps. So basically a cost that is slightly above 7%. Regarding your second question, yes, there is a change of control clause at the bond at AEDAS. So we have also the funds to repay this bond.
And your next question comes from the line of Fernando Abril-Martorell from Alantra.
Just a couple, please. So first, following this deal, what are your new land acquisition targets for '26 and '27? And how should we think about your strategy longer term? And second, on profits, profits will likely benefit from AEDAS' contribution until it is fully monetized by you said around 2030. So what is your run rate earnings ambition beyond that point, say, by 2030 or 2031?
Thank you. I take the first one regarding the land investment strategy. Well, with this transaction, we have derisked and accelerated our investment budget with very good returns of plus 20%. Given the increase in our fully owned land bank, we expect new land acquisitions to be reduced in the coming next 2, 3 years, where we should be acquiring EUR 50 million to EUR 100 million.
In the future, we should be buying between EUR 150 million and EUR 250 million, including equity of the asset management business. But having said this, we will continue to be very disciplined as we have demonstrated until now and riding the cycles with all the expertise we are accumulating. And the second one, I think Jordi will answer.
Well, I mean, it's not easy question. I mean in the coming 5, 6 years, what we are saying is that with the data that we have provided today that we could be in a net income around EUR 150 million every year. Thinking beyond 2031, we don't have the crystal ball. It would depend on the opportunities that we will see in the moment. But for sure that with this opportunity and all that we have closed until now in terms of asset management business, we should be in a position to exceed the guidance that we had until now. Let's see the level. Probably it's not a question for today.
Thank you. There are currently no further phone questions. I will hand the call back for webcast questions.
Thank you, operator. I will go through some of the webcast questions that I'm ordering here right now. The first one is regarding the tender offer asking -- the question is why are we launching a tender offer at a discount. Jordi, you may take this one.
Okay. Okay. I'll take it. I mean we believe that the offer price represents a fair value for 100% of the shares of AEDAS and, from our point of view, represents a good value for its shareholders. I mean the testament of this is that the majority shareholder that basically has -- holds 79% of AEDAS has irrevocably agreed to sell the stake at this price.
Thank you, Jordi. I have here another question with regards to the management of -- the operational management of the company after the transaction. After -- especially after the deals done with Hábitat and now AEDAS, what is the limit in terms of operations that we can handle in this company?
Thank you, Jose. I'll take this one. Well, you think you never know the limit. But so far, what we are focusing is that we will be delivering between 6,000, 7,000 units per year in the following years. And really, it's something that we think that we can easily scale the capacity of the production of this company. Basically, we will keep the same structure that we have today, and that will be enough to allow the increase of rates very fast.
In this case, especially, there are many drivers that will help a very fast integration of the companies. First, I must say that at the end, we are integrating 2 of the best-in-class companies in Spain, and that will make easy all the stuff about documentation, our procedures, our capacities. I also must say that both platforms are already producing, are already working. So if we zoom today what both companies are doing, they are already doing 6,000, 7,000 units per year. And we work basically in the same regions with the same control software with very similar strong procedures.
So basically, all that we have to do is to integrate the teams. And to do that, we have designed an integration program that was similar to other integration programs that we have used in the past. So we are used to do this type of operations.
And I can give some main ideas. First is that we will give priority to execution. Execution will be the first one. And the second, let me explain a little bit how we see the company. The company has a value chain that goes from land acquisition to project design, construction, commercialization and deliveries. And this is like the heart of the company. And surround this, we have other departments, the corporate departments, human resources, IT, legal, compliance, investor relationship and so on. So basically, all that we have to do is to put some more people in these departments. We will keep a very strong structure in the top management of the company.
And basically, at the end, it's something similar as what we did, for instance, in Alovera that we went from 0 production to 1,000 or 1,500 houses per year. There, it was more difficult because we have to create a new structure. Right now, we have the structure. So all that we have to do is to integrate the teams. We have rates of how many architects are we going to require, how many lawyers, how many blah, blah, blah in each department. And it's something that we think that in a period of 6 months, more or less, both companies will be fully integrated. But meanwhile, we will keep the production of both companies between 6,000, 7,000 units per year.
Thank you, Borja. We have here some questions on the debt side, on the credit side. I'm going to group them. The first one for -- both of them actually for Jordi, but the first one is on the public ratings of the bonds post the transaction, if we expect any changes.
At Neinor Homes level, what they expect is a positive outlook, being honest because we are strengthening the company through this investment. And remember that the debt -- I mean, the senior secured notes at the target has no collateral. So it's ring-fenced. So positive in that sense. And regarding the target one, as I have said, in any case, there is a change of control clause, so it's going to be repaid.
And then the second question related with this is the debt from Apollo is amortizing at 25% per annum over the next 4 years. How do we look to pay this down?
I mean it's a senior secured notes. Other thing is that it's subscribed and underwritten by different funds from Apollo, okay? Second, we are based on our conservative underwriting that Mario has explained very well. We will generate enough cash to repay this 25% down payment on an annual basis. And not only this, we will generate extra cash that will be used to release the dividends that we have committed today.
Thank you, Jordi. So this concludes the questions from the webcast platform. Operator, I think we have another one from the phone line.
Your next question from the phone line comes from the line of Ignacio Romero from Banco de Sabadell.
I have a technical one on the capital increase on the EUR 225 million equity increase. Will this be a private placement for the main shareholders? Or will you issue rights so all shareholders may participate? And also related to this equity increase, is there a reference price for this?
Regarding your first question, the 3 main shareholders have underwritten the EUR 225 million. So we are fully funded. So it's not that we need money from third parties. Having said this, obviously, we will open, in principle, the door to all investors to participate. And regarding your second question, I mean...
Sorry, Jordi, just -- sorry to interrupt, Jordi. Just to be clear, so these main shareholders will only offer their capital if the equity increase is not subscribed by the rest of shareholders. I'm not sure I understood the...
Correct. That's it. And regarding the second question, we will see. It will depend on the market price.
Thank you. There are no further phone questions. I will hand the call back to you.
Thank you. So this concludes the session. We remain available to answer any questions you may have. Thanks a lot for joining, and we'll be in touch.
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Neinor Homes — Aedas Homes, S.A., Neinor Homes, S.A. - M&A Call
Finanzdaten von Neinor Homes
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Dez '25 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 705 705 |
45 %
45 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 529 529 |
50 %
50 %
75 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 176 176 |
30 %
30 %
25 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 65 65 |
18 %
18 %
9 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 78 78 |
22 %
22 %
11 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 4,95 4,95 |
12 %
12 %
1 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 73 73 |
23 %
23 %
10 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 123 123 |
99 %
99 %
17 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen EUR.
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| Hauptsitz | Spanien |
| CEO | Mr. Vergara |
| Mitarbeiter | 585 |
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