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Kennzahlen
📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 319,99 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 65,77 Mrd. $
Marktkapitalisierung = 319,99 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 67,31 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 363,41 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 65,77 Mrd. $
Enterprise Value = 363,41 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 67,31 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Merck & Co. Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
36 Analysten haben eine Merck & Co. Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
36 Analysten haben eine Merck & Co. Prognose abgegeben:
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Merck & Co. — Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
All right. We're just about at time. So let's keep moving with our next session with Merck. I'm very excited to have Rob Davis, CEO; and Dean Li, EVP Research Labs. Thank you both for being with us today.
Rob, maybe before we begin, I want to just give you the opportunity to level set us, big picture, on how things are going, sort of, midpoint of the year, how are things tracking towards the derisking of the commercial targets that you said that you'd achieve at least half of by the end of this year. So high-level comments on...
Yes. No, happy to do it. Well, one, thank you for having us. Good afternoon, everyone. If you look at where we're at, it's already been a very eventful year for us so far. And I would say our transformation is well underway.
If you look at the readouts we've had, it's pretty much hitting every area of our portfolio, whether it's Oncology, some important readouts coming from ASCO. HIV, news came out yesterday of our approval of islatravir plus lenacapavir. Ophthalmology, things are moving. Across the board, we feel very good about what's happening in the pipeline. And as I think about proof points, you're starting to see them and they're accelerating, and that's very important.
We're well on track to our goal. You mentioned the 50% of the $70 billion by the end of this year. We're actually ahead of schedule. You saw we had important readouts for sac-TMT, I-DXd, actually about a year ahead of what we thought. So as I sit here today, whether it's that, what we're doing with business development, bringing in Terns, which is another important asset. Our Animal Health business continues to do incredibly well, growing strongly on a new product portfolio strategy, very similar to the Human Health business.
Across all those fronts, what I'm probably most pleased about is it feels like people are starting to dig in and get a real sense and confidence in the breadth and depth of our portfolio and more there, but the fact that you're starting to see investors start to appreciate that, makes me very happy.
And I would just close by saying, as I think about where we sit today, my confidence that we are positioned for good growth coming out of the LOE is as high as it's ever been. It was already high. It just gets better. We're going to keep doing what we're doing. We're never satisfied, but we're operating now from a position of strength, and I think that's probably most important. And credit to Dean, to our MRL colleagues, how they've transformed the pipeline in the last 4 years is frankly quite amazing.
And there's a lot to talk about the pipeline transformation, which we're going to get to. But maybe before we do that, Rob, I just want to stick big picture for a bit. You touched on this briefly, BD, and I apologize in advance for asking you this question again because you've been asked in so many different ways. But I think everyone is always interested in hearing about your latest framing on the M&A lever. Just given the confidence that you're expressing on the pillars that you've already put in place for the transformation of this company that now seem well underway. So what are the gaps that are left to fill? Level set us on size, TAs, et cetera?
Yes. If I was going to summarize it, I would say we are going to continue to execute the exact strategy we've been doing over the last 4.5 or 5 years. And it starts with always asking the question, where is there important science that is happening, addressing an unmet need? Where we see that, we look at the portfolio and we try to think strategically about the portfolio.
And as I think about your question of where we are, I don't know if I see gaps at the moment, I see opportunities. Where I would see further opportunities, oncology. We want and intend to be a leader in broad-based oncology. And I think we now have the portfolio to do that. And we have strength to leverage by adding to it. So we'll continue to focus on oncology. Cardiometabolic is a space we're interested in. Immunology is a place where we're interested in. But we're going to continue to do that. And as you think about it, where we see the science aligned with our portfolio and if we can see value, we will move. We have been operating under a one pipeline strategy since Dean and I really came into our roles. And that means we want to bring in the best, whether it's internal or external.
So this isn't -- we're not doing business development to fill a gap to -- and so there's never a finish. It is just part of an ongoing strategy of how we develop a sustainable growth model that is going to take us not into 2030, not into 2035, but 2040 and beyond. And that's why from a size perspective, that $1 billion to $15 billion, which has been the sweet spot we've been operating in, that continues to be where we operate. We've said consistently that we would go bigger, but it has to be something where we see an important scientific opportunity and we have to see value creation. And obviously, the bar as you go bigger gets harder because it reduces your opportunities to do other things.
So that sweet spot, $1 billion to $15 billion is where we'll continue to focus. You look at what we've done, Verona, Cidara, Terns, those are the type of deals. I think you should continue to expect to see more of that.
Excellent. So before we kind of start drilling into some of the science, with Dean. On one more high-level question, Rob, that we're actually asking all of our management teams is -- and that's on the external environment and the operating external environment for the industry. You've got the midterms coming up. You've got some regulatory uncertainty with FDA leadership vacuum. You've got attempts to codify MFN that's set to expire in about 3 years. So what are you paying the most close attention to? Where are the banana peels that you could run into either on the drug pricing side or on the MFN side or anything else that we should be aware of?
If I look at where the FDA is and what's happening, I would start by saying we need a steady, stable, predictable FDA. That's very important. If you look back over the last couple of years where they've been focused, I do think they were making moves in the right direction, and I hope they continue under whoever comes in now to take over. And that's around how do we move better into the Phase I first-in-human studies. The question always is, why are we looking? Why do so many companies go to China, as an example. Well, it's because you can go faster and cheaper. So why don't we try to make the U.S. [Audio Gap] by addressing and simplifying our Phase I clinical processes that [Audio Gap] we want to see that focus. We want to continue to see a focus on AI. So those are the things we are promoting from an FDA perspective.
From a macro perspective, the push to try to continue to get reforms around PBM insurance, now 340B, I still believe that if you look at total drug spend, it's only 15% of the total on the innovative drugs. 90% of all drugs prescribed are generic. Generic prices in the United States are the lowest in the world. So that is a highly efficient model. So why not focus where the real challenge is, it is the $0.50 that goes into the middle. Why do we lose $0.50 of every dollar when you're not a part of the development, not taking any of the risk, not having to manufacture. We need to address that macro system.
And as an industry, both as Merck and now as Chairman of PhRMA for this year, that's where I'm pushing. How do we continue to work with the administration and with Congress to address those fundamental infrastructure issues but -- that I think are real opportunity. So if we can continue to drive for stability and predictability in the FDA, focus on making our system more efficient and address some of these macro challenges, we're positioned to be the world leader for a long time, but we need to make those moves to do it, and that's where I'm focused.
Okay. So maybe with that, and I have a couple of other big picture questions, we'll come back to those because I want to bring Dean -- I want to bring you into the conversation.
Let's maybe start the discussions coming off of ASCO. But before we get into some of the updates you saw there, I want to just address the EVOKE trial that you and Gilead announced the discontinuation of last night, where the KEYTRUDA plus TRODELVY combination was being tested in first-line metastatic non-small cell lung, PD-L1 high patients. So how should we think about the implications of that for sac-TMT in that indication? What, if anything, should be the read-through there?
Yes. So I [Audio Gap] comparison. And so one has to be a little bit thoughtful on how one does it. But this is in the PD-L1 high. It is looking at the addition of a TROP2 ADC with PD-1. It's very similar to a trial that we discussed at ASCO, where there was impressive data. And in the data that we just had a discussion where we actually put the headline out yesterday with our other partner, Gilead, it didn't meet the bar.
So the way that we look at it is not all TROP2 ADCs might not be the same and that we're very focused on our partnership with Kelun on their unique TROP2 ADC, sac-TMT, which we think is differentiated in the molecular design, and we're very interested in replicating the data that you saw at ASCO in relationship to the China trial and doing it globally. So we think that the opportunity for that potentially is greater, and our job is to bring that through.
So I guess that's a great segue into maybe unpacking that a little bit, arguably, the OptiTROP-Lung05 trial, which I think you were referring to is stronger validating data for sac-TMT than what you saw last night. So really no read-through there despite those both being TROP2 ADCs.
So maybe talk a little bit about the OptiTROP-Lung05 trial. What did you learn and what didn't you fully learn from that program? What are the most important gating points in terms of just trials? And what would you like to see before taking the next steps in the -- for the development of this program in the KEYNOTE-189 population, which has clearly set a very high bar.
Yes. So the first thing is when we brought in sac-TMT, the TROP2 ADC, we were very clear. We thought that this was a differentiated molecule and that there was enormous opportunity outside of lung and breast. So when you see the 17 Phase III trials we have, we've highlighted 13 of them are in tumor types and indications where we're the first movers. What we said in breast and lung is that there will be TROP2 ADCs before us, and we need to highlight the differentiation. And I think we're beginning to do that in lung. And I think there's also data that probably will come out in the next year or so in relationship to breast.
In relationship to lung specifically in KEYNOTE-189, the concept is you have pembro plus chemo in all-comers in non-small cell lung cancer. And the question is, at what point would you take sac-TMT and put pembro in that sort of place. We've decided to do PD-L1 greater than 50%, and that's clearly been a useful strategy.
But the broader thing as to when would you "blow-out" the program within lung. We're already blowing out the program without talking about lung. One of the questions that we always asked ourselves is, will there be innovations on the PD-1 side that we should take into account. And so that's something that we're looking at carefully now with important data coming from Akeso in China. And so we're studying that. deeply. But we've already "blown-out" the sac-TMT program. We're focusing in one component -- part, which is lung.
And I guess the lens for that program on the Kelun side is now starting to shift to the OptiTROP-Lung06 6 trial.
Correct.
So give us some high-level framing on what you would consider to be a successful outcome for that trial? And how does that trial add to your knowledge base around sac-TMT activity across the spectrum of non-small cell lung, including in the less than 1%...
I think that will be an important trial because it will tell you how much weight sac-TMT can hold in the challenging of KEYNOTE-189 and whether or not it would be -- it holds it well enough or would it be better if it held it with another alternative to a PD-1. And I think that's what it will teach us.
And we work very closely with our partners in Kelun. I mean they've just been excellent partners. And so we have -- using their data, almost like a sentinel, allows us to reshape the global trial. So we're very eager to see that data as we decide how broadly we take sac-TMT and whether or not the combination partner should be a PD-1 or something else.
Let's maybe unpack the -- another big theme coming out of ASCO, which you were very much at the center of as well, which is the progress on the PD-1-VEGF bispecific class. So I guess, first, Dean, externally on the HARMONi-6 data that you saw from Akeso. I'd just love to get your thoughts on the issues that were raised by the discussant on the stage after the data was presented that fueled some substantial discussion and debate among investors. I mean, are these really substantial concerns around this global translatability in terms of differences and age? Or is this just skeptics trying to poke holes in the data?
So I think everything the discussant said is legitimate, and we take them seriously. I think the person who spoke was very clear of the things one has to think through. But just stepping back, one of the things that's been very clear when you add PD-1 and VEGF, whatever the VEGF part has been, has been you can hit PFS, but it's been hard to hit OS. That's been a constant sort of theme. We've seen it in our own pipeline. Other people have seen it in their pipeline as well. But you need to step back and sit there and say, is this a clean PFS to OS? You'd have to say that it's clean in relationship to the OS appear to hold.
There are all the other caveats that one has to think about. And so one has to be very thoughtful how one advances it. And so when we look at that data, we sit there and go, on one hand, there haven't been many things that have translated into PFS and OS, and this one is. So we do not -- we think that's an important contribution. But I think the caveats that the discussant said, informs us as to how do we think to move it forward and in what partner should we move it forward and in precisely what indications we would move it forward.
Clearly, if you look at PD-1s and VEGFs, there are opportunities in lung, but it's not just in lung. It's an HCC, it's an RCC, it's in cervical, it's in ovarian. There's many places where a PD-1 and a VEGF works. So we're doing the hard work to sort of sort out where and when we should target those different indications. But equally important for us is not just where we put the PD-1, VEGF, but what's the combination partner? Should it be chemo, should it be Sac-TMT, should it be a different ADC, should it be a different molecule.
So let's unpack that a little bit more. At ASCO, just regarding your own PD-1-VEGF program that you alluded to a little bit right now. You noted that it was Phase III ready, which was intriguing and suggest it's moving potentially at a more rapid speed than certainly, I think a lot of us had thought. So I guess we'll just ask the question, like what data are you waiting for externally or internally before you get comfortable, in your words, to let the dogs out? I think you phrased it...
I'm going to have to live that one down a little bit. But...
What indications can be...
Yes. So clearly, we work extremely closely with Kelun. So us understanding where some of the other agents are will be really important because it's not just around the PD-1, VEGF. We believe that PD-1, VEGF could be an accelerant to other novel molecules, whether they're antibody drug conjugates, whether they're precision targeting.
So it is about PD-1, VEGF. There is more information that will be coming out. But equally important, it's the combination partner that you put in, in a specific tumor indication. So for example, you've talked about the OptiTROP. How that OptiTROP plays out will inform us as to when or whether we should -- how we would advance that sac-TMT in lung and who the IO partner would be.
Okay. Very clear. Another big theme out of ASCO that obviously got a lot of attention was RAS. And you discussed Merck's KRAS programs at your own ASCO event. So how do you see the applicability to lung cancer? And what are the tumor types you see rationale to target? And how is Merck approaching development very broadly?
Yes. So when you think about the RAS, you think of 2 major tumor types, there's many more. But you think of lung, you think of pancreas and you think of CRC. What we have the ambition to do is to displace KEYNOTE-189, not with a PD-L1 VEGF necessarily or Sac-TMT, but in those patients who have RAS mutations that you take a PD-1 and a RAS inhibitor and you don't take any chemo. And you see that in our G12C programs that are advancing, and there's many programs in relationship, not just in metastatic but earlier. We also believe that in CRC, it's very important. There, the combination partner is not PD-1, it's cetuximab. How well can your compound compete in that combination.
And then we've also said that we have a non-G12C RAS molecule, 4716, that one could imagine that whatever we see with our G12C, one would begin to replicate with our non-G12C in lung and CRC. We give enormous credit to RevMed. They've really made an important contribution for pancreas. I think many people will drive to pancreas, and we will make the decision when or whether to drive into pancreas, depending on how we look at where we can do the most good. I do think that many people will enter the field targeting pancreas given the important data of RevMed.
Okay. I have one more oncology question, and then we're going to keep moving because there's so much to talk about in the pipeline, which is a great thing, Rob, as you alluded to earlier.
Just at the ASCO event, Dean, you noted the historic nature of the INT program, partnered with Moderna. So just remind us on your technology, how the technology approach is differentiated there? What have you learned now in terms of what's been derisked in melanoma? And what's the path forward there as you look to expand into other indications and turning this asset into a scalable platform business?
Yes. So I have to give enormous credit to our partners. Previously, I talked about Kelun, but I must talk about Moderna. Their technology is differentiated. And the fundamental issue for cancer "vaccine" or individualized neoantigen therapy is people have done this for 30 to 40 years. And they've had to pick a single neoantigen. That's very difficult in solid tumor. What the Moderna technology allows us to do is to make a spread bet. We don't have to pick one. It's 20-plus, right? We can pick 30, and that's critically important. And so the ability to pick so many neoantigens and put it in a vaccine is important.
We have focused where IO has worked. We have focused where KEYTRUDA works. We have focused where KEYTRUDA works in earlier stage. And so that's where we are focused. And the melanoma data that we saw in Phase II, I think, is thought-provoking. And if we can repeat that in the Phase III, I think it will move the field in a substantial way.
One of the things that you also notice is that when you think about mRNA, sometimes people worry about durability. But for the melanoma, the 5-year data, I mean that's pretty durable, right? There was no more injections. It was pretty durable. That confidence led us to open up additional trials and even earlier stage in lung as well.
So as that moves forward, [Audio Gap] where you see KEYTRUDA at a minimum [Audio Gap] you could see us be very interested in moving INT in that form. We would also look at other people who are doing it in non-IO sensitive tumors and metastatic. And if they get positive readouts, we would react to that as well.
Okay. Let's keep moving. Dean, let's move to cardiometabolic. Enlicitide, just has the filing been made? And if not, what are the remaining gating factors? And you have this CNPV program. Any impact on that from Makary's departure?
Yes. So I can tell you that I actually had a meeting because after the Makary departure, the FDA wanted to make very clear to us this is on. And so we have every indication that the national priority voucher given for enlicitide is moving forward.
In relationship to how it's done, you -- it's almost like a rolling submission. And once they're satisfied, they send you a letter and then they say the PDUFA date is going to be this time. Whenever we receive that letter, that's when we will make it public. But now in the CNPV program, when you get that letter, that PDUFA date is really fast upon. It's no longer 6 months or 9 months. It could be within 2 months. So we believe that's moving forward, and we're very eager to move that.
And we think it's going to lower LDL in a substantial way. And the -- the point that I would also make out is the AHA and ACC has done a tremendous work in changing the guidelines. It used to be, hey, take a statin and call me later for the last 12, 13 years. And what they said is we're going to give you hard targets that you need to meet. And I think what that will do is it will increase the need for having patients not just on statins, but other mechanisms like PCSK9 and both the antibodies and our small molecule. I believe that the expansion will not be what percent of the PCSK market who gets. I think that there could be a substantial increase in the PCSK9 market.
And I guess as we think about the development of the enlicitide program more broadly and you think about combinations and particularly including with GLP-1s potentially, just what are you paying the most attention to in terms of market developments? And Rob, I actually want to bring you into this conversation as well to talk a little bit about just obesity and how strategic that is to you. So maybe starting with you.
So I would just say enlicitide is really important for that patient population. Clearly, GLPs are really important. I think people know that we have a GLP-1. We've been very focused on being very clear that we're not going to be playing in the peptide injectable or the peptide oral. We want to play in the small molecule GLP, and we want to play in the small molecule combination space. Those programs are moving very fast within our program, but in relationship to the markets of both obesity but also enlicitide. Rob?
Yes. No, I think Dean said it, I mean, we are interested in looking at the broader obesity space, but less about obesity than it is the comorbidities. So it is more broad in the way we think, and that's where the combination strategy comes in. And as he said, it is about oral small molecules and how we can combine that is the focus area.
So that's kind of where we're focusing. And you'll probably see more from us in that space coming out into the early 2030s. But there's a lot of work to be done with enlicitide in the interim period, not only as a mono agent, but also with our fixed-dose combination potentially in combination with Lp(a). So there's a much broader portfolio that we're thinking about across the broader cardiometabolic space.
Okay. Maybe just on WINREVAIR, Dean, just any update there, too, on FDA discussions on the Phase III trial design, feedback on time to clinical worsening as a primary endpoint and just timing on next updates there.
Yes. I don't want to get ahead of the FDA, but the time to clinical worsening to me is like really important. That's the most meaningful thing to the patient and to the provider. So I just want to make sure that to me has to be a prominent part.
I mean just to sort of step back in PAH, I think PAH, I think sotatercept/WINREVAIR and activin signaling inhibitors has changed how we talk about that field. And the question is, in a patient population that has HFpEF and has PH physiology, which is one of the hardest patient populations, can we make the same contribution. And so we're very eager to do that and move that forward with the FDA and increasingly with the community because they recognize in this patient population, they largely have nothing.
Okay. Let's maybe move to immunology, TL1A, tulisokibart, we're approaching the pivotal Phase III ulcerative colitis readout, I believe, in August, September. So I guess, how should we be thinking about the bar for that pivotal? What would constitute a positive trial? I mean your Phase II data set a really high bar already.
Yes. So I would just step back and what do we hope? What do we hope is that TLA -- TL1A, which is a member of the TNF superfamily gets talked about, no different than TNF is talked about, no different than IL-23. We want this to be a node that is really important. The second point that I want to make out is we think we want to make it not just a node because of its efficacy, but also because its AE profile is so low, so it opens up combinability. And the third thing that we think is really important is that we think that there's a narrative about immunofibrosis. Those other agents are really important and an important node, but they're not -- people view them as immunology agents, not fibrosis agents.
So although we're doing ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease, what you see our clinical development is quite extensive. And in comparison to others, much more extensive. We have it in HS, we have it in psoriatic arthritis, we have it in rheumatoid arthritis, we have it in SSc-ILD. And we are hoping that as we see data from this, can those different indications make that concept of immunofibrosis come alive. And if it does, then it gives us a beachhead to expand, deepen and extend with other biomarkers and other combinations, all being different depending on what the indication is.
Okay. Maybe just moving on to your HIV program.
Thank you.
Do you want to comment on the data from yesterday? I'll leave that as an open-ended question for you.
So we're very pleased. We have talked about islatravir and that family as an NRTI next generation with translocation inhibition. But what we've always said is this could be a new anchor medicine. And you see it in isl-dor, which is a once a day with non-integrase, 2-drug regimen, first 2-drug regimen without an integrase. We're launching dor-isl. We have both naive as well as switch data. You have this isl-len now, q week. We have positive data. We'll be talking to the FDA with our partners, Gilead. They're the ones who have the market authorization, but this could be the first q-week treatment, a 2-drug q-week treatment with 2 novel mechanisms with no integrase.
And then you also have our own islatravir-ulo, which is, again, trying to show everyone islatravir can be that base. and another q week. And then the fourth thing is it's not islatravir, but it's islatravir like, MK-8527. Can we be the first compound that can make a prep that's q-month oral. I mean, to us, that's that excitement. So we laid out 4. One is getting launched, one, we have positive data and hopefully, 3, 4 fall into place as we hope.
I'm very excited about that program, too. It's great to see the enthusiasm. Let's talk about ophthalmology and retinal disease. You've got the BRUNELLO study is reading out the Phase IIIs in DME, I guess, third quarter, fourth quarter. So just level set us on how we should be thinking about the program because as I look across consensus models, there's not a lot reflected for that.
Yes. So I would just step back and say our ambition here is within the company, and Rob and I -- is palpable. What we're hoping to do is to put 2 mechanisms in retinal vascular disease, [Audio Gap] which is a Wnt agonist. And the concept is, could this be the [Audio Gap] vascular endothelial growth factor pathway molecule, an agonist that could treat in diabetic macular edema. So all the other sort of drugs in diabetic macular edema and age-related macular degeneration are vascular endothelial growth factor based. This would be the first non-VEGF.
The reason why that's important is that VEGFs have transformed the field, but there are many patients who don't respond well with VEGF immediately or with time. So we hope that we can be the first non-VEGF mechanism of action moving to that field.
But I also want to make sure that we also think that we want to be the best VEGF mechanism as well. So we have MK-8748. It is differentiated from Vabysmo in the fact that like Vabysmo, it has an anti-VEGF arm. But differentiated for VEGF, we have a component that agonizes, that activates Tie2, and we are very bullish about that. So what we're hoping to do is provide the retinal field, can we really have an excellent anti-VEGF offering in MK-8748 that is differentiated. And can we also provide them with the first non-VEGF pathway in MK-3000. If we can do both of those, then we believe that we can actually advance this field. And I think Rob can speak about the commercial. When you look at the commercial opportunity in eye, it's not insubstantial.
Yes. I mean it's worth pointing out just to kind of size this between DME and AMD, it's about a $15 billion market. As Dean said, 40% of patients will either -- show today either partial or no response to VEGF therapy. So there's a lot of switching that happens in this space, a lot of unmet need. And if we have now 2 agents that can [Audio Gap] we think that's a meaningful opportunity. We're talking about the Wnt, which we will see positive -- or we will see the data readouts coming. But we also accelerated our Tie2 into Phase III faster than people had expected. That's moving now in AMD. So you've got now our Tie2 moving in AMD. We've got the Wnt moving in DME. And so our ability to have a meaningful impact, probably bigger than people expect and sooner than people expect, is real.
Great. Great to see the progress in that program, too. I guess in the last couple of minutes, quick maybe rapid-fire, Dean, what's in the invisible pipeline that Rob talked about that excites you the most?
I think it's invisible. But I would just sit there, I go, you look at our pipeline, we are laying out new beachheads. And when we think about those beachheads, we can expand, deepen and extend. There becomes incredible opportunity to add on other mechanisms to the ones that are in the visible pipeline. So much of it is this.
But I'll just lay out at ASCO, I, for example, for antibody drug conjugates, everyone was so focused on Sac-TMT. I need to remind them, I've got 3 with Daiichi Sankyo. But the other thing is I've got one in heme, and I've got like 4 or 5 heme assets moving, maybe 3 of them with readouts in '28, '29. And also, we laid out there, there's like 2 or 3 other Kelun antibody drug conjugates that we haven't declared that will be very important as we, with Kelun, decide when to make that reveal depending on their data and our data. So there's a lot, but some of the "invisible" is kind of visible. It was on a chart at ASCO.
Great. Great framing. Rob, any closing comments in the last few minutes?
No. I think the hardest thing here is the -- we have so many opportunities. The breadth of our pipeline is so impressive, not only in the late phase, greater than 20 assets driving over $70 billion, all either now launching or will be launching very soon. 70% will be completely derisked by the time we get to 2027 from a clinical perspective. But we have an equally exciting Phase I pipeline as well. You can think about macrocyclic peptides, you can think about antibody drug conjugates and others. So our sustainability as a growth engine is real, and you're going to see it increasingly play itself out as it already has through the proof points we put on the board so far.
Well, great to see all the progress. Thank you so much as always for being with us. I really appreciate the update.
Great. Thank you.
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Merck & Co. — Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Merck & Co. — Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Merck präsentiert eine beschleunigte Pipeline‑Transformation mit klarer Fokussierung auf Onkologie, Cardiometabolic und gezielte M&A im $1–15 Mrd.-Bereich; zahlreiche Phase‑III‑Readouts und Zulassungswege stehen an.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Management sieht die Transformation als „on track“ und teils vorgezogen: Mehrere Proof‑of‑concepts haben bereits Risiken reduziert, Merck will Wachstum nach Loss‑of‑Exclusivity (LOE) über neue Blockbuster in Onkologie, Herz‑Stoffwechsel, Immunologie und Augenheilkunde sichern.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Onkologie: Fokus auf breite Führung bei Krebs, Ausbau durch TROP2‑ADCs (sac‑TMT), PD‑1/VEGF‑Kombinationen und KRAS‑Inhibitoren.
- M&A‑Leitplanke: „Sweet spot“ $1–15 Mrd.; gezielte Zukäufe (Verona, Cidara, Terns, Kelun‑Partnerschaften) zur Ergänzung der Pipeline.
- Plattformen: mRNA‑Neoantigen‑Programm (Partnerschaft mit Moderna) und mehrere ADC/klinische Early‑Assets als Wachstumsquelle.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- sac‑TMT: Management betont molekulare Differenzierung gegenüber anderen TROP2‑ADCs; OptiTROP‑Lung06 wird wichtige Weichenstellungen liefern.
- PD‑1/VEGF: Signal aus ASCO (Akeso) zeigt PFS→OS‑Übersetzung, aber Fragen zur Globaltranslatabilität und Partnerwahl bleiben.
- Ophthalmologie & HIV: Nicht‑VEGF‑Wnt‑Ansatz (MK‑3000) und Tie2/VEGF (MK‑8748) vor Phase‑III; islatravir‑Kombinationen mit wöchentlichen und späteren Präparaten als potenzielle Differenzierer.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- sac‑TMT‑Read‑through: Kritische Nachfrage zu Konsequenzen des EVOKE‑Abbruchs (andere TROP2‑ADC scheiterten), Management verwies auf molekulare Unterschiede und weitere Kelun‑Daten.
- PD‑1/VEGF‑Risiken: Diskussion über Alter, Populationsunterschiede und ob PFS→OS nachhaltig ist; Kombinationspartner (Chemo vs ADC vs andere IO) zentral.
- Zulassungs‑Timing: Enlicitide/CNPV‑Rollout und PDUFA‑Signal, sowie Augen‑Phase‑III‑Timings wurden als near‑term Catalysts genannt.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Viele klinische Ereignisse und ein aktives BD‑Programm machen Merck zu einem pipelinegetriebenen Wachstumsstory mit klaren near‑term‑Katalysatoren; regulatorische Unsicherheiten und Translatabilitätsfragen bei einigen Klassen bleiben relevante Risiken für die Bewertung.
Merck & Co. — Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone. My name is Akash Tewari. I head our pharma and biotech efforts here on the research side for Jefferies. Joining us is Merck, a company that really global company with focus on multiple disease areas. But we have Marjorie, who heads their oncology efforts, and Merck is certainly a leader there, and we're fresh from coming from ASCO. So I'm really excited for this conversation.
Marjorie, maybe I'll hand it off to you for some opening remarks, and we'll get to going.
Yes. No, great. Thanks so much. ASCO was an exciting time for Merck and for us. Our partners, Kelun Biotech presented data from OptiTROP-Lung05, which is a Phase III global study looking in non-small cell lung cancer at the combination of sac-TMT combined with KEYTRUDA versus KEYTRUDA alone, showing clinically meaningful improvements in progression-free survival and a trend noting immature data and overall survival for those people who had non-small cell lung cancer with a TPS of greater than 1%. We also had updated data sets from KEYNOTE-942, which is a combination of pembrolizumab and INT, an individualized neoantigen therapy as treatment of people with certain melanoma Stage II and III, and that 5-year durability data was quite compelling.
We also had compelling data from the 5-year update from KEYNOTE-522, looking at people who have triple receptor-negative breast cancer as well as other updates across the oncology portfolio. So it's a great meeting for Merck. And there was a lot of really exciting external data as well, which made it on time and helps us to be excited about our continued path forward.
Understood. And I certainly agree. It was definitely a good ASCO for Merck. I wanted to start on lung, and I'll take it from a different angle, which is the question we often get from investors, and frankly, I've asked on investor calls as well. Why hasn't every study in lung started yet? And I can sense that your team has been consistently very diligent, and you mentioned data-driven, I think that's right. But there's a dynamic on this, which I don't think is well appreciated, which is pembro in lung may actually end up having a much more diversified revenue stream than I think people appreciate. People think about KEYNOTE-189 as a massive driver, but you guys have run adjuvant studies and maintenance studies. And so this idea that frontline lung in that traditional sense is the be all and all may not actually end up being the case. Could you give some color on that in terms of when we think about pembro's revenue drivers today in lung, how diversified is it in the United States?
Yes. I am not the best person to speak to this. So I apologize already, but I should have these numbers, and I do not. It is not the #1 revenue generator for Merck. I can't speak to where that comes from. But you're right, we now have multiple studies in the adjuvant setting, including 6 that have overall survival and more of the revenue, particularly future-looking revenue coming from KEYTRUDA Qlex and we anticipate in those settings, less so with the 189 regimen.
Understood. Now maybe going into ASCO and I'd love to give -- you obviously have a PD-1/VEGF in development that's Phase II-ready. And your team has been very prudent in terms of where you want to develop that asset. But I'd love to get your take because you've said, we want to get more data from the field externally before we figure out our own development program. Obviously, we've got some important data sets from HARMONi-6, the ROSETTA data from BioNTech and then also the lack of a PFS on HARMONi-3. How is Merck's view on where PD-1/VEGFs fit a role, particularly in lung, changed post-ASCO?
This is such an interesting development for all of us as we think about how to optimize therapy for people with different kinds of malignancies. Through the KEYTRUDA program, we have more than 20 studies that we have done with different combinations of KEYTRUDA with VEGF inhibitors, including bevacizumab, where we have 2 approvals, lenvatinib, where we've seen some compelling data in endometrial cancer as well as in renal cell, and other VEGF TKIs. And so we've learned a great deal about the combinations over time. And historically, it's not been a one-size-fits-all approach for these kinds of combinations.
And what has really been the question, and I think people are more excited after ASCO is could the bispecific of putting these 2 together and potentially improving the therapeutic index by putting them together because the safety appears to be a little more tolerable and maybe you can increase the efficacy actually of the PD-1 as well by the structure. Is that going to be what it takes to open up VEGF more broadly across multiple tumor types.
And I think we're still left with more questions than answers. So HARMONi-6 was great data. I want to congratulate Akeso, the investigators. It is clinically compelling information. It's the first Phase III randomized data set we've seen with the bispecific that shows consistency between PFS and OS. But open questions remain regarding the translatability into global studies, the translatability into different subsets of non-small cell lung cancer, referring back to what you said with you even look at HARMONi and you look at HARMONi-2, where you didn't necessarily see that same correlation between PFS and OS.
There are also open questions about -- in that particular HARMONi-6 study about the differences in age that was seen, where you saw most of the benefit for those people who were less than 65. And in a different magnitude, people keep talking about 407 and KEYNOTE-407. And I'd like to point out that, that study, the control arm, there was 60% crossover. I don't know if people remember that, 60% of the control arm crossed over to pembrolizumab. And the age hazard ratios, there was a small difference, definitely between those who were less than 65 and those who are older, but the magnitude of difference was not the same that was seen in HARMONi-6.
And so I'm excited because the curves separated and they stayed separated. Will they continue that way? I don't know the answer to that. When we look at the HARMONi -- HARMONi-2. They didn't seem to do that from the data we know to date. So I'm curious, and it's an area where we want to continue to develop and explore. But how these agents will combine in different tumor types is to be determined. So we're always -- as you said, we're data-driven. We're very disciplined, and we will go where there's opportunity where we think the science and the clinical need makes sense.
Great answer. And there's a few threads I want to kind of pull on. I mean, a, you mentioned in 407 because I think there is this perception, well, squamous is slightly easier than non-squamous. But you mentioned there's a lot of -- there was actually a lot of crossover in the 407 study. So maybe just generally, this idea that pembro chemo in non-squamous versus pembro chemo and squamous, there's a difference in terms of how difficult it would be to beat that regimen. It sounds like you're saying that's not actually the case. Both are going to be equally difficult to surpass. Is that maybe the right?
I think that people -- KEYNOTE-189 has set a really high bar, and that's great news for patients. It's set a very high bar. And the other thing that we know is over time, clinicians get better and better at keeping people on therapies as they learn how to identify who best benefits from treatment, how to modulate side effects, so dose intensity gets better. It's doing a really good job for patients. There's still a huge unmet need, so you want to develop things. I don't know that I would say that it's -- the bar is different as a barrier to entry for squamous versus non-squamous. They're different biologic subtypes.
Generally, the effects are somewhat similar for a checkpoint inhibitor between the 2 histologies, the huge meta-analyses. There are more neoantigens in squamous, and so you might get a little more robust response there. So that may be why you're seeing the barrier to entry. The other aspect is that non-squamous, there's more division of that histology into subgroups such as RAS mutations are more present in those who have adenocarcinomas. And so it's more about how does the biology and the current therapy and thinking where the future is going, how then do you want to develop in these different spaces. And so again, we still have more questions than we actually have answers at this time.
Understood. Now one of the data sets that I think I sense is going to be incredibly important. I'm curious if you share the view is I think Kelun has an 06 trial with sac-TMT in less than 1% NSCLC. You got the 1% to 49% data from 05. And my view was it did look incredibly strong. But it sounds like the less than 1% is an important part of that puzzle. Why is that, right? What are you going to learn from that 06 trial and you're hoping to see with sac-TMT and NSCLC?
There are a couple of questions there. The first question is related to does the PD-L1 expression level have any influence on the activity of sac-TMT. And there's not a biologic reason to expect that to happen. I think is when you look at high PD-L1 expression tumor scores, that KEYTRUDA does better and better and other checkpoint inhibitors improve their activity as you get higher PD-L1 expression. And so the bar to beat and improve upon that is higher. So the magnitude of benefit tends to be a little bit less.
The question that is going to come from this is related to can you increase the benefit of the combination there where people do use KEYTRUDA for the less than 1%, but it's not uniform. And we have a lot of data showing that there is benefit in this population. So can you enhance that from an ADC combination. I think is one of the questions. We've seen some suggestions on tumor receptor-negative breast cancer that, that could happen that using an antibody drug conjugate. We've seen it in bladder cancer as well with a different antibody drug conjugate class. And so that to me is the question that I'm most curious about is, do you think that you can get something that is at least additive, if not better, by that combination? And that's what I'm hoping to see.
That is a fascinating answer because I will say, even talking to Kelun, they strongly believe that there is an inherent synergy between pembro and sac-TMT. And then there's also this dynamic of versus just traditional chemotherapy, you have a better durability of effect. So that's quite interesting, which kind of leads me to another perspective, which is KEYNOTE-189 was such a transformative trial because not only did you give great patient outcomes, but it was also the simplicity. I mean there's no QCS, there's no TMB. This is something that every doctor, it's histology, people understand this, and it can get used.
And you've talked about this concept of workhorse regimens. What's interesting to me is when I look at the OptiTROP-Lung05 data, I see a consistency of response. When I asked you about less than 1%, you're saying, I hope I see a consistency of response. And when I even look at the development strategy you had with Kelun, a lot of times, you ran studies in subpopulations, but you're ultimately actually running trials pretty much everywhere.
So to me, the read is actually we went conservative, but then we're seeing this drug is actually working more broadly. So that kind of brings me to ultimately what your strategy could be in lung. Could it be that it's not separate trials in different sub-cohorts, but it actually could be another KEYNOTE-189 regimen where whether it's a PD-1 VEGF or pembro that you could have a broad-based improvement across lines of therapy, and that's really ultimately where this is headed. I'm curious.
When we started the global program with sac-TMT, we tried to think ahead 3 to 5 years from starting these Phase IIIs, what was the therapeutic landscape going to look like? What was the clinical unmet need and where could we add the greatest value? And that explains where we are today. So for those who normally get pembrolizumab as a monotherapy, often these are older people who are not healthy, you don't want to give them chemotherapy for very specific reasons, sac-TMT is a cytotoxic therapy. It's an antibody drug conjugate, but it still has cytotoxic activity. So can you improve the efficacy because people unfortunately relapse and die in that population because they have metastatic disease, and so can that help? So that's that study.
The KEYNOTE-189 regimen, when you look at, you've got people who have squamous carcinoma and the biggest unmet need we saw was for a maintenance approach there. There isn't a maintenance therapy. There are different ways you could consider that population. It was you could add on to chemotherapy and KEYTRUDA, and often you compromise on the chemotherapy dose or the antibody drug conjugate dose or both, where the benefit is probably from the maintenance approach and that also can make it more tolerable. So we think sac-TMT is a tolerable regimen that could be given for long periods of time in combination with KEYTRUDA.
And then when you think about the adenocarcinoma population, we were thinking ahead, we knew that RAS was coming into this space. That segment is getting more and more subdivided. I think that the data from OptiTROP-Lung05 and then like you said, for 06 does raise the question of, is there the possibility that you will see some kind of sac-TMT combination across all of these subgroups. And so we don't have studies that we've talked about fully in all of the different populations. But I think we've got a very diverse portfolio, and you can look at the data from ASCO and you can make your own estimates about what we might do there.
Understood. Maybe just ending on sac-TMT, and you mentioned something that I think is incredibly important is it's a tolerable drug. And one of the things that I noticed with the 05 data was that the duration on treatment, which is to me incredibly important, was double that of pembro monotherapy, which is unusual. Usually, you wouldn't think the more cytotoxic combo regimen has that.
So a couple of things. Can you talk about really how you optimize the dose of sac-TMT and Kelun to their credit, too, when they started at 5 and 5.5 to then going to 4 , which seems like a Goldilocks dose, how you guys have learned to keep patients on therapy? How much of an improvement have you seen even from the early studies with sac-TMT to now the trials are running now? And how you expect that to translate into your own global Phase IIIs? Should we expect this durability of response to carry out that might actually be even better than some of the early trials we've seen out of China?
There's a lot wrapped up in that question. So let me think about how to approach this. From the dosing perspective, antibody drug conjugates, they do have cytotoxic payloads. And so there is usually a dose response you see with chemotherapy. And so you do see this with sac-TMT is that the higher the dose, you tend to get increased efficacy. You also get increasing toxicity, too. So we're trying to look for that best optimal activity versus tolerability when we were choosing doses. We also wanted to have one dose for combination as well as monotherapy. And we have multiple studies where we're using sac-TMT as maintenance.
And so going with the highest dose that is tolerable doesn't always make sense in combinations because combinations increase toxicity. They always do, whether it's a KEYTRUDA combination or any other kind of combination, side effects get worse. And the PK between 5 milligrams per kilogram and 4 milligrams per kilogram heavily overlap. And so it's the totality of data, and we see very consistent sort of durations of response, PFS in the Phase I and Phase II data sets that led us to choosing this. And that's why you saw 4 milligrams per kilogram combined with pembrolizumab in the OptiTROP-Lung05 study. So that's how we ended up with the dosing regimen that we so thinking about this is I'm not going to call it a workhorse or I'm going to call it a cornerstone ADC is that for the clinicians out there, having one dose and monitoring combination makes their lives a lot easier. It really does. And so that way, you don't have to think about it is in your pathways. You don't have to really question it. You just can't prescribe it.
The AE management, I talked about this in regards to 189. Doctors get better managing toxicities over time. And the opportunity we had here with our partnership with Helen is they were running studies ahead of us. And so we could learn from what they were doing. So an example of this is stomatitis care. TROP2 is expressed in the intestine. All of the TROP2 ADCs have some GI toxicity. And for an example, in the Kelun studies, they do not routinely use steroid mouthwashes. We use them in our Phase III data sets, and we have increased the use of it. We also use much more aggressive secondary growth factor prophylaxis because of the hematologic toxicity, and it also helps recovery of the intestine. And so we've been much more prescriptive about that. And these are AE managements that oncologists are very used to giving in their daily practice and don't add significant burden to patients.
So if you're able to make the experience tolerable, then that's where you get the benefit. How this will translate in global studies is to be determined. Global studies inherently are different than single region studies, whether they're China studies or a U.S.-only study. There's going to be variability there. And so we are teaching physicians in real time as they are getting used to these drugs. And so my hope is we have learned a great deal, thanks to our partnership and our very large Phase I/II program that we've done to date, and we continue to iterate and evolve what we're doing in Phase III programs. I'm encouraged by the endometrial readout, which you haven't seen the data yet, I have, very exciting. And so having positive PFS and OS is the first ADC in a Phase III data set endometrial, I think, supports that we are on the right path.
Understood. Now last one on just PD-1/VEGF and then I actually want to go broader. The [ Lenvima ] asset, I think the term Merck adopted was we're Phase III ready at ASCO. I will say the one question I think I've certainly thought of, and I've heard this from investors as well is like it's unusual for Merck to present unconfirmed responses. I mean you guys are very straight and narrow. You give confirmed responses, you give proper durability. And at AACR, I think both in the poster and in the abstract, it was kind of the same data cutoff.
And so the question I've always had is really how did that data mature over time? Really encouraging 55% response rate, but it was unconfirmed. Is there any qualitative color you can give us in terms of as you've given that therapy for longer duration because that's really what you have internally, how that profile has evolved over time?
I don't like to talk about data that's not public yet in any kind of form. And so we have confidence in the data that we presented. Otherwise, you wouldn't have seen us present information like that. And so we wouldn't call an asset Phase III ready unless we thought that what you would see is what you would get.
Understood. That's helpful in and of itself. Now maybe stepping back and hitting on also CML. And you guys just did some external BD there. I was happy. I actually, I covered Terns. So it's always great. But there's been -- I think to me, it has been kind of frustrating because there's this idea like, oh, I read the deal documents and the response rate changed and this is not the asset we think it is. And I'd love to give you an opportunity to kind of -- what is your perspective when you saw the 701 molecule in terms of, a, safety and durability of response. But b, I really want to hit on efficacy, right? I remember talking with Amy at Terns and she was saying, we have the opportunity to maybe run a head-to-head study against Scemblix or run a study that where we feel like we could be superior against standard of care, which is something Scemblix never showed. So specifically on the efficacy front, what is your view of that molecule and what it can deliver?
We're really excited about the acquisition of Terns and TERN-701, which I think we've now renamed MK-4208, but we're calling it 7013. And this drug, we really appreciated that we think that they have improved the therapeutic index. And that's -- it's -- the way that they have presented data is very consistent. When you look back at the original Scemblix Phase II data sets and Phase I data sets and the other second-generation TKIs, they use the same terminology. So that way was an apples-and-apples indirect -- so that's where the data set is. We were able in diligence to look at patient level data and look at every single patient, including the ones that weren't presented at ASH last year and look broader. And so when we made the statements that the efficacy, you've got incredibly fast kinetics of time to response.
We were able to independently verify and look at each patient and verify that. When we say that MMR is around 2x what you would expect to see from more recent assets. We have verified that information and DMR 2 to 3x similar direct comparisons, again, all of the caveats and limitations there. All of that is very accurate information. And so we think this is something that is -- does have the opportunity, as Amy had said, when she was CEO of the company, of being able to really improve outcomes, not only in this sort of relapsed/refractory population where it's originally studied, but I think a lot about the first-line setting because clinicians still worry.
Thankfully, the transformation in acute leukemia has dropped dramatically. And so it's less than about 10% right now. It's really come down. But what you want to see is that very fast response. They do get better over time. I think there was updated data presented at ASCO on Scemblix that's showing over time, things get better. But you really want that deep, deep response and then you want the durability of it because it opens up the potential for potential for some people to go off therapy. And this is a chronic disease. And after several years of therapy, if you keep someone very suppressed, you might be able to stop their therapy and give them a break.
This goes into the tolerability as well is that most of the significant toxicities that have been reported in this class have occurred in the first 6 months. And so I think that, that's definitely there are class effect side effects that you are going to see that all of them are going to have. But it's the magnitude of them, the frequency and how you manage it that improves that therapeutic index. And I think Terns has done a really nice job there. So we're excited. We're continuing on with the program and the progress. We're about a month into the acquisition and the integration, and we really are excited about the potential opportunity in the future with this asset.
Understood. And maybe just a final point on that. In terms of the design, I know it's early in terms of a Phase III. I think quite an important part about deep molecular response and that could be curative. Could you run head-to-head studies? Could you run or a trial where it's more traditional to what Scemblix did, which is in kind of frontline against standard of care. Is there a discussion internally for your team to take the more aggressive approach? Or will more traditional.
So we're some month in. So give us a little time.
That makes sense. Now maybe stepping back, the ADCs you don't get asked a lot about are the Daiichi ones. And that at the time...
Because they're great.
Okay. So -- and that's incredibly important because, again, one of the largest pharma partnerships ever, I think probably the largest at the time of the deal. But I think there's been mixed headlines. There's -- it's a really competitive landscape. And there's always this question of, well, which one of these assets is Merck right now most excited about. I'd love to kind of give you a chance to refresh in terms of the data that you have internally because you're running these kind of dynamic Phase II/III trials, larger Phase II studies. So there's a lot of data you have internally that maybe is not public yet. Of the 3 assets, which one do you feel like since you've acquired it, you've gotten much more excited about as you've gotten more clinical data?
This is always hard because it's like asking what your favorite child is or -- so what is it that you like to do? The IR team will laugh because if i get asked a question, I always like to mention one specific drug is my favorite drug because they're also different and special. They each have fantastic potential. And that's what I think is -- we saw that initially when we did the diligence and we started initial discussions.
And as we're seeing data come out, if you look at I-DXd, we've got a PDUFA date in October for small cell lung cancer, where there's tremendous unmet need, about 4% survival at 5 years for this horrible malignancy and very compelling efficacy from the Phase II data set, we have ongoing Phase III study and potential for combinations also with MK-6070, which is our DLL3. We have ongoing Phase III studies looking at I-DXd in esophageal cancer as well as in prostate cancer, which they're all exciting to me. And I think the continued data that we're seeing keeps me excited about this asset and the potential. And we have other Phase II studies ongoing, which we've not publicly disclosed.
If I move to R-DXd, another one where it's, again, exciting and compelling data. It is -- you see very marked responses in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer. So we have Phase III studies ongoing in the platinum-resistant setting. We have large Phase II data sets and more Phase IIIs soon to follow in this indication. We are also looking at R-DXd in other tumor types. And so we're waiting for emerging data to help inform where else this drug could potentially go.
And then with P-DXd, we started a Phase III in breast cancer. And so HER3 is really important in breast cancer in a way but I think is not always appreciated. And so we've started one where in hormone receptor positive breast cancer, including a combination with KEYTRUDA, where normally you don't give KEYTRUDA. And it's partly what you mentioned earlier about the ADC combination, -- can it improve the likelihood of benefit to a checkpoint inhibitor because of increased antigen exposure. Is there something there that makes that happen?
And with this, we also -- in the study, in HER2 is allowed in the control arm because it does have very, very, very low HER2 levels in there, and we know that there is expression response with ADCs generally across the board. We also are doing Phase II studies, and this is public information, looking at HER2-positive because HER3 is particularly important in HER2-positive disease. And HER2 has done an amazing job. I'm a former breast oncologist, I'm now drug developer. And for me as a breast oncologist, HER2 has been transformative in HER2-positive disease, but there's still a ton of unmet need and people diagnosed with de novo breast cancer. So opportunities for multiple different kind of combinations to innovate there.
And a quick one on that, de novo. I mean, this question, I think Lilly presented some data with her Nectin-4. And there's -- to me, this is like -- this is a huge problem. You have all these TOPO ADCs. They're all going frontline. You're going to have this issue in ovarian. And I think there is early signs that if you retreated with TOPO, you're not getting a response at all. It is regardless of even changing the target. So when you talk about HER3 for breast, is that -- what's your confidence that you can retreat with the topotoxin and get a response? Or is it more we're trying to go to populations where Enhertu really hasn't gone?
I think to be determined. And so there are multiple different data sets. It's -- well, if I take a step back and just talk about chemotherapy, and so I'll go back to my history as a breast oncologist, we even would never treat someone with paclitaxel to go to docetaxel. We would never treat someone with Adriamycin to go to Doxil. You don't do them sequentially like that. And so there have been data sets presented that have shown that if you do ADC A with the TOPO and the ADC B with the TOPO, you don't see a lot of activity. That doesn't surprise me.
The big question is at what treatment-free interval do you get sensitivity back and does that happen? Because you can retreat with taxanes in breast cancer if you have a period of time between them and get quite robust activity. Same thing is true with anthracyclines. You can retreat with Doxil if you had Adriamycin and get quite robust activity. So I think it's to be determined. If the mechanisms of resistance are different with the TOPOs, you can get topoisomerase 1 mutations and you also can get change in efflux pumps. And probably, it may be that specific TOPO payload that could make a difference on whether or not there's response to. So a lot for us to learn and think about moving forward.
Understood. I have a little break on my next meeting, so I'm selfishly going to ask one more question. She's giving me a scalp, but it's fine. On the Moderna INT partnership, and I say this is -- I'm probably -- I was more skeptical than anyone else. I was like, there's all these LAG-3 studies in adjuvant and they've all failed actually. And you continue to present really interesting data regardless of PD-1 expression of a durable response, which I think is quite interesting. I want you to talk about the signal you've seen in melanoma and how it might apply to lung. Have you -- has your confidence in that program increased? And what are you learning about the biology of these personalized cancer vaccines that maybe we don't appreciate?
So for those who are not familiar, 942 is a study looking in Stage II and III melanoma of pembrolizumab versus pembrolizumab combined with INT, 5-year follow-up information, you saw that there is almost a 50% reduction of distant metastasis as well as relapse-free survival. So I'm rounding up one number rounding down another number. So really compelling activity that's prolonged. They also have exploratory data showing T cell clonal expansion that was maintained even though the INT was stopped and it wasn't continued on, no boosters were given.
So the question that you're asking is how do we take that and apply it to non-small cell lung cancer. The reason why we started Phase III is we just opened up one in Stage I lung cancer -- non-small cell lung cancer relates to the TMB levels and the neoantigens, the similarities that you see between non-small cell lung cancer and melanoma. The underlying biology of what makes something immunosensitive is the most similar between these two diseases, which is why we started our Phase III programs. We have multiple Phase II studies looking more broadly, for example, renal cell, which is IO sensitive, has less neoantigens. And so will something like INT be effective there. And then other studies which are IO-sensitive like bladder cancer, we have Phase II studies ongoing to really understand that as well. So more to follow.
More to follow indeed. Thank you so much. I really do appreciate.
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Merck & Co. — Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Merck & Co. — Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference 2026
ASCO‑Gespräch: Merck setzt auf datengetriebene, schrittweise Onkologie‑Expansion — Schwerpunkte ADC‑Kombinationen, PD‑1/VEGF‑Ansätze, TKI‑Zukauf und personalisierte Neoantigen‑Therapien.
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Merck bleibt vorsichtig und datengetrieben: Positive ASCO‑Signale (OptiTROP‑Lung05, KEYNOTE‑942, KEYNOTE‑522) stärken die Entwicklung von Antikörper‑Wirkstoffkonjugaten (ADC) in Kombination mit pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) und begründen weitere globale Phase‑III‑Programme.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- ADC‑Strategie: Sac‑TMT (TROP2‑gerichtetes ADC) wird global weiterentwickelt; gewählte Dosis 4 mg/kg zielt auf bestes Verhältnis zwischen Wirksamkeit und Verträglichkeit, länger andauernde Therapiedauern sollen Nutzen erhöhen.
- Combinationsfokus: Merck testet systematisch ADC+Checkpoint‑Inhibitoren und PD‑1/VEGF‑Konstrukte; Interesse an bispezifischen Wirkstoffen wegen möglicher besseren Verträglichkeit/Wirksamkeit, aber Translationsfragen bleiben.
- BD & Pipeline: Übernahme von Terns (TKI MK‑4208/7013) soll in CML schnellere und tiefere molekulare Remissionen liefern; zudem große Daiichi‑ADC‑Programme (I‑DXd, R‑DXd, P‑DXd) mit mehreren Phase‑III‑Studien.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Daten: OptiTROP‑Lung05 zeigte klinisch relevante PFS‑Verbesserung; KEYNOTE‑942 liefert 5‑Jahres‑Nachhaltigkeit in Melanom; TERN‑701 intern auf Patientenebene validiert (MMR/DMR‑Signale höher als bei Vergleichsassets).
- Keine Guidance: Finanzprognosen oder formelle Guidance‑Änderungen wurden nicht diskutiert; Management vermeidet Detaildiskussionen zu nicht‑publizierten Daten.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Umsatzquellen: Wie diversifiziert ist pembrolizumab in Lungenkrebs? Management: mehrere adjuvante/Erhaltungsstudien, zukünftige Umsätze wahrscheinlich diversifiziert.
- PD‑1/VEGF: Rolle nach ASCO? Interesse an Bispezifika, aber Fragen zur Übertragbarkeit zwischen Studien, Alters‑ und Subgruppenunterschieden bleiben.
- Dosierung & Tox‑Management: Warum 4 mg/kg bei sac‑TMT? Antwort: pharmakokinetische Überlappung, bessere Kombinierbarkeit; AE‑Prophylaxe (Mundspülungen, Wachstumsfaktoren) verbessert Therapiedauer.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: ASCO‑Präsenz stärkt Mercks klinische Position in Onkologie: vielversprechende ADC‑Kombinationen, ein potenziell differenziertes CML‑TKI und Fortschritte bei personalisierten Neoantigen‑Impfstoffen. Operative und therapeutische Risiken (Translatierbarkeit, globale Heterogenität, toxikologische Balance) bleiben zentrale Entscheidungsfaktoren für Investoren.
Merck & Co. — Special Call - Merck & Co., Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Merck & Company Inc. New Jersey USA investor events at the American Society of Clinical Oncology Annual Meeting. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Peter Dannenbaum, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Thank you, Ivy, and good evening, everyone. Welcome to Merck's Investor event at the American Society of Clinical Oncology Annual Meeting. Thank you to all of you who've made the effort to be with us here in Chicago. It's great to see such a great crowd here tonight, and thank you for those that are tuning in via the webcast.
So we're excited to have this opportunity to speak to you about Merck's oncology program. During today's call, a slide presentation will accompany our speakers' prepared remarks and has been posted to the Investor Relations section of Merck's website.
Before we get started, we'd like to remind you that some of the statements that we make during today's call may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are made based on the current beliefs of our company's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. If our underlying assumptions prove inaccurate or uncertainties materialize, actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. Please reference this slide in our presentation and our 2025 10-K, which identifies certain risk factors and cautionary statements.
So our agenda tonight will start with Dr. Dean Li, President, Merck Research Laboratories, who will make a few opening remarks. Dr. Marjorie Green, Senior Vice President and Head of Oncology, Global Clinical Development, will provide an overview of our oncology strategy and key progress across the portfolio, including important clinical data updates. Next, Jannie Oosthuizen, Executive Vice President and President, Oncology and MSD International will speak to the commercial landscape and the opportunity we see to further impact patient lives. Dean will then provide closing remarks before we get to Q&A. Sophie Opdyke is sitting here in the front row, Senior Vice President of Global Oncology Marketing, and she will also be available for Q&A.
So with that, I'd like to turn it over to Dean.
Good evening. It's a pleasure to see so many of you here in Chicago. One of the things, I think, is important is we're trying to create a cadence of what our strategy is and try to define what it is and hold ourselves to be predictable in saying that in 2021, we outlined 2 clear objectives: To sustain durable leadership in oncology, we wanted to maximize the positive impact of KEYTRUDA especially in earlier stages of disease; and to diversify our pipeline with novel mechanisms. And then since then, we have made steady and important progress in demonstrating the benefit of KEYTRUDA in improving patient outcomes, especially in the earlier-stage setting. Last year, we also introduced KEYTRUDA QLEX, a subcutaneous injection of pembrolizumab plus berahyaluronidase alfa, allowing the administration in as little as 1 minute when given every 3 weeks. And we have leveraged the data and insights gained from KEYTRUDA to advance a broad and diverse pipeline of innovative candidates and novel mechanism of actions. And I think Marjorie will speak to a few of them, but we use our experience with KEYTRUDA and what it can combine with in how we look at these novel mechanism of actions. And we also look where KEYTRUDA doesn't work so well and where we want new mechanism of actions as well. And then over the course of the last few years, these 2 objectives have been our guiding principles. And this evening, you will see some significant progress we have made in executing against them.
So let me put our progress in context because where KEYTRUDA goes allows us to figure out where other things should go and gives us a leveraging point in relationship than that.
So KEYTRUDA has now received FDA approvals for 44 indications across 19 tumor types as well as 2 tumor-agnostic approvals, and clinical programs continue to generate evidence with the potential to further transform cancer care. In 2021, we also felt that our ambition would be that 25% of KEYTRUDA sales would transition to go much more in the earlier stage indication by the end of 2025, and we've achieved that ambition. That ambition is important as we think in the future about our pipeline, but also setting up were subcut KEYTRUDA can go, KEYTRUDA QLEX can go.
And so today, KEYTRUDA-based regimens have received FDA approval for 11 indications in the earlier setting, of which 6 studies have demonstrated an overall survival benefit -- the gold standard for oncology trials. So KEYTRUDA continues to raise the bar in treating earlier stages of disease and improving patient outcomes and laying a road map for us to follow.
We have advanced our foundational position with KEYTRUDA to create a diverse pipeline by executing on 3 pillars that we think is important. Immuno-oncology, and you've seen KEYTRUDA, we've talked about KEYTRUDA QLEX, but it is around PD-1 VEGF. It is around INT as well. Precision molecular targeting that many -- some of the programs that Marjorie and also a very robust tissue targeting candidates in the ADCs, both internally but also with robust partnerships with Daiichi Sankyo and especially with QLEX. In total, we now have approximately 60 Phase III oncology trials, of which 40 are across novel pipeline candidates including our suite of antibody drug conjugates, T cell engagers, small molecules and individualized neoantigen therapy. These diverse candidates are being developed as monotherapy as well as in combination with KEYTRUDA or KEYTRUDA QLEX. And the culmination of the late-phase studies is a result of years of disciplined pipeline diversification, both through internal discovery and strategic business development. We believe that we are well positioned to deliver a steady stream or cadence of meaningful data readout over the coming years and further the impact on patients with cancer.
And with that, I will turn it over to Marjorie.
Thank you so much, Dean. If you think about the portfolio and Dean set up how we think about drug development and the assets in our organization, we think about 3 pillars of biology. And we do that because of the underlying mechanisms of growth and resistance of different cancers and being able to have drugs that can target specific biological pillars, and they can be combined together.
So our immuno-oncology medicines are designed to stimulate anticancer immune responses. These include KEYTRUDA QLEX, our investigational INT candidate and our PD-1 VEGF bispecific. Precision-targeting agents are designed to impact pathways that can derive cancer growth. This includes caldorasib, our investigational KRAS G12C inhibitor, which recently received breakthrough therapy designation in the first-line non-small cell lung cancer setting; as well as several agents from our growing hematologic portfolio, which I'll further touch upon later in the presentation. Finally, tissue targeting, which includes antibody drug conjugates as well as T cell engagers. These are designed to target chemotherapy and immune cell activation to tumors while attempting to mitigate effects on normal tissues.
The reason we've organized around these goes directly to our strategy. And so to have the maximum benefit for patients and meeting the needs of these patients as well as clinicians and society is we know that the best outcomes in oncology how when you give multiple drugs together or are the different mechanisms resistance for the heterogeneity that exists in most cancers combinations have had the best outcomes long term. And we've seen that for many of our KEYTRUDA studies with multiple diseases and multiple combinations. And so we want multiple mechanisms to have the best benefit.
We also want to develop agents, therefore, that have single agent activity that are active in and of themselves and that are combinable because that will give us the best opportunity to help the most patients with a specific kind of malignancy or a subtype of a malignancy. And we can have diversified regimens also that potentially can go across multiple tumor types depending upon the targets and the mechanisms of action.
We also want to improve the therapeutic index of our medications. That is to be able to help a physician and a patient understand for a specific tumor that a person might have, is there a biomarker that could predict benefit of therapy because every time someone is treated, a physician can tell someone, we'll hear the odds that someone like you might benefit from a therapy. But knowing for that individual sitting in the chair in front of you, it's often very difficult. We're talking about statistics. And as a person who sees a physician, that's really uncomfortable place to be. So if we can develop targeted therapy diagnostics, that will be really helpful to find those patients most likely to respond.
And critically, we want to bring these drugs into earlier stages of disease, as Dean talked about with what we've done with KEYTRUDA. And it's because we can have the greatest impact there. We can help the most number of people with cancer if we can treat the disease as early as possible, whether it is in the first line or second line setting in a metastatic disease or if it's in the potentially curative setting in the adjuvant or perioperative space.
So we take these 3 pillars, and we created diversified regimens that can be delivered generally across multiple tumor types. And so I'm going to start the update with one of the drugs that can do just what I talked about, which is a sac-TMT. It is one of our broadest programs in our pipeline. This is an antibody drug conjugate that we brought in through our partnership with Kelun Biotech. It's a differentiated Trop-2 antibody drug conjugate with a belotecan-derived hopizomaras1 inhibitor payload.
What we're particularly excited about is the bifunctional linker technology that's proprietary and is quite unique for the Trop-2 ADCs that are currently in clinical studies. This linker is designed with the intent to maximize payload delivery due to its very stable irreversible connection to the antibody. This is intended to prevent the payload for breaking off the circulation. There is a pH-sensitive connection that ensures intracellular payload release in tumor cells. There also is the allowance of the structure for bystander effect. The stability of the linker also enables a drug-to-antibody ratio of somewhere between 7 to 8, we say 7.4 to be very precise. But it's a very -- for the stability of the linker, this is a very high DAR when you look at other antibody drug conjugates. And so based upon its design and the compelling data generated so far, by our partners at Kelum, this has the potential to be a cornerstone antibody drug conjugate across a variety of different cancers.
So one such data set was the data you've seen at ASCO this year from OptiTROP-Lung05. This is a Phase III study conducted by our partners in China. And the study enrolled people who have non-small cell lung cancer, it could have been an adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma, with expression of PD-L1, 1% or higher, locally advanced, better as inoperable or metastatic non-small cell disease. These are people who had no prior systemic antitumor therapy, and they were randomized to receive monotherapy pembrolizumab or the combination of sac-TMT and pembrolizumab. The combination of sac-TMT and pembrolizumab provided a clinically meaningful and statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival by blinded investigator, blinded central radiology review in the overall study population.
This benefit was very consistent across subgroups. We're including those who had PD-L1 high expression, those with lower PD-L1 expression, squamous histology, non-squamous histology, age across all of the different categories, there was consistent benefit. And the intent-to-treat population, noting that this is very immature follow-up at this time, there is an OS trend observed noting again, it's very immature. And so no definitive conclusions can be made about that data.
But it's really exciting. It is. And particularly, we consider other Phase III data sets coming out of China and similar populations. It helps to demonstrate the promise of sac-TMT combined with pembrolizumab in our global trophuse 007 program, particularly trophus 007, we are conducting for participants who have non-small cell lung cancer whose tumors have a TPS score of greater than 50%.
We have other global Phase III studies in non-small cell lung cancer underway. The OptiTROP-Lung05 study adds to the growing body of data generated by Kelun Phase III studies. You're now seeing multiple proof points across well-conducted, randomized clinical data sets in multiple tumor types, including lung and in breast cancer. Most recently, Kelun announced positive results from OptiTROP-Breast03 study in the first-line triple receptor negative breast cancer space a few weeks ago.
Many of these proof points tie directly into studies that we have ongoing in our global TroFuse program. It is this collaboration we have a Kelun that allows us to expand and go into so many tumor types with confidence.
Our TroFuse development program is broad, and we think it's differentiated. TROP2 is highly expressed across multiple tumor types. And we've designed Phase III studies in tumors where there's an opportunity for us to meaningfully impact cancer care either with a differentiated development profile or where we can be a first mover.
As you see, we are advancing studies across gynecologic, breast, lung, gastric and bladder cancer spanning from mid- to late line in some settings, but mostly in the earlier stages of disease. We are also pursuing maintenance regimens in several of our studies. And many of these indications, these are first-mover opportunities in the way that we have developed our Phase III program.
In keeping with our strategy to improve the therapeutic index of our assets, we have a robust biomarker strategy in place for sac-TMT. We have a broad development plan; not every tumor may benefit from enrichment. The data that we've seen with our biomarker development conducted during our extensive Phase I/II studies in collaboration with our partners in China, has guided the implementation of biomarkers into our Phase III program.
I'm very pleased to share that TroFuse-005 is the first positive global Phase III for sac-TMT that has been conducted by Merck. This study demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in both progression-free and overall survival of certain patients with endometrial cancer. This is the first TROP2 ADC to show improvement in overall survival and progression-free survival compared with chemotherapy in certain patients with advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer and is the first ADC to have randomized Phase III data in this setting.
Endometrial cancer is the sixth most common cancer in women and it's increasing in incidence. There's significant morbidity and mortality, particularly in late-line settings, and there is no standard of care in majority of patients whose cancer progresses despite the use of I-O therapy like KEYTRUDA and chemotherapy. This builds upon our expertise in the disease where we have 2 -- we have innovated with therapies, including with KEYTRUDA. And we're excited about these results. We will be talking to health authorities, and you'll see the data at an upcoming scientific presentation in the near future.
sac-TMT is one of the 8 antibody drug conjugates that we are excited about and having clinical development today. We have one of the largest and broadest ADC portfolios in late-stage development and covering important cancers. Our ADC pipeline brings a diversity of targets, bispecifics and linker payloads. This provides potential opportunities to improve outcomes for patients and create unique combinations.
Now I want to move on to another important part of our portfolio, which is MK-2010. In addition to building upon tissue targeting therapies such as sac-TMT, where over half of our studies are being done in combination with IO therapy with KEYTRUDA, we are also building out immuno-oncology with MK-2010, which is our PD-1 VEGF bispecific antibody.
We publicly presented data for the first time from a collaboration study that was initiated by LaNova, and this was presented at AACR this year. The study demonstrated clinically meaningful data for MK-2010 as treatment for certain patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer. For those in the first-line treatment-naive setting, the unconfirmed objective response rate was 55% among 11 previously untreated patients with PD-L1 positive non-small cell lung cancer at the 20-milligram per kilogram dose.
And what I like to look at is the waterfall. The majority of patients show tumor control or shrinkage. The safety profile of MK-2010 is consistent with what's observed with this new class of assets and allows us to be able to develop this drug potentially both as monotherapy and importantly, in combination with other drugs in our portfolio. We believe we are uniquely advantaged to fully explore the potential of the PD-1 VEGF access. While KEYTRUDA is central to our experience, much of what we have learned comes from combining it with different therapies and different mechanisms of action, including VEGF inhibitors. Although we are not sharing specific development plans today, as Dean noted, we are operating from a position of strength given the breadth of the studies we've conducted across multiple therapeutic classes.
In addition to the external knowledge about VEGF inhibitors and as emerging data comes about bispecifics, we have meaningful experience of our own. We have conducted multiple studies of KEYTRUDA combined with VEGF inhibitors, including Avastin combinations that have led to approvals beyond our own experience with a portfolio of novel agents that offer combination opportunities oriented towards combinations of the future rather than adding on to today's current standard, including ADCs like sac-TMT. Together, our experience plus our portfolio provides a strong foundation as we plan MK-2010 development across multiple tumor types in a rapidly evolving oncology landscape.
So now let me turn to our innovative hematology portfolio. You have seen our recent announcement about the acquisition of Terns Pharmaceutical, which brings us TERN-701. This asset further expands the portfolio in hematology despite multiple approved tyrosine kinase inhibitor, significant unmet need remains for improved efficacy safety and convenience for certain patients with CML. The team at Terns did a fantastic job of developing a highly selective, potent oral allosteric BCR-able tyrosine kinase inhibitor designed to improve upon prior generation TKIs. It's high target selectivity potentially enables higher dosing while limiting side effects supporting improved therapeutic index.
In a Phase I study, TERN701 demonstrated major molecular responses that are approximately 2x and deep molecular responses that are approximately 2 to 3x of those approved -- those compared to approved TKIs and historical data sets. We are very excited about this asset and look forward to advancing it into late phase development.
With TERN 701, our hematologic oncology portfolio now includes 5 assets that may be used across a variety of different hematologic malignancies in keeping with what our strategy is for Merck Oncology. Nemtabrutinib is a potent noncovalent BTK inhibitor designed not only to bind reversibly to BTK. But it also had activity against other kinases and is designed to help prevent some of the common resistance mutations that occur with covalent BTK inhibitors.
Bomedemstat is an LSD1 inhibitor. This is a mechanistically exciting drug with potentially disease-modifying effects in chronic diseases like essential thrombocythemia and polycythemia vera.
Zolibertimab vedotin is a ROR1 ADC currently ongoing in Phase III trials in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, including a head-to-head study against Polivy. We have seen activity in GCB and non-GCB tumor cells and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. We also have seen activity of ZB both as monotherapy and combination, and we are excited about the progress of this program.
MK-1045 is a CD19 T-cell engager potential utility not only in ALL, but across other hematologic malignancies.
And then TERN 701 rounds out our portfolio.
So again, thinking back to our strategy, the same principles apply here. We have created and curated a hematology pipeline of drugs that have great potential as a single agent and combination.
And then finally, let me provide you a forward look at the readouts you can expect from our innovative pipeline. We're excited about the portfolio. We have assets with compelling activity that have led to approximately 60 Phase III studies in our late-stage portfolio. That excitement and commitment to patients is leading to a series of readouts you've already started to see starting with TroFuse-005 in endometrial cancer. And we have a PDUFA date in October for IDXD, an extensive stage small cell lung cancer. There is a steady cadence of readouts extending through '27, '28, '29 across 10 new assets, reflecting the diversity of the portfolio and the broad reach we have.
I will now turn it over to Jannie to talk about the commercial opportunity.
Thank you, Marjorie. It's a pleasure to be here I have the privilege of addressing you in my new role as President of our Oncology business unit and Human Health International markets at a time of significant progress across our oncology portfolio. Our dedicated teams have established a leading franchise around the world. We continue to execute with excellence across multiple tumor types, driving patient impact and access to our important cancer therapies in over 100 markets. We have reached more than 4 million patients worldwide with our oncology medicines. Our suite of oncology products is approved in 58 indications across 25 tumor types, including 2 tumor-agnostic indications.
This portfolio provides a strong foundation for the broad range of opportunities Dean and Marjorie outlined. Our research colleagues continue to deliver compelling clinical advances, and we are excited by the reach and competitive pipeline. Importantly, the commercial organization, both in the U.S. and globally, is in place to deliver on that opportunity and further improve outcomes for patients. Today, I'll focus on the near-term programs, we're advancing with the same discipline and urgency that help establish Merck as a leading oncology company. I'll close with our long-term commercial aspirations for our broad and diverse late-stage pipeline.
We remain confident in the outlook for KEYTRUDA, supported by continued momentum in earlier stage indications and ongoing strength in metastatic settings. Sales from early-stage indications represented more than 25% of total revenue in 2025 and are expected to increase further. Indications approved in the last year, including in certain head and neck, ovarian and -- bladder cancers will drive a large portion of growth. And there remains potential opportunity for additional new indications both in earlier stage and metastatic disease.
We have built a strong presence in GU and women's cancers underpinned by the robust data KEYTRUDA continues to generate. By 2028, we anticipate that roughly half of KEYTRUDA's revenue will come from women's cancers and GU, reflecting the breadth of our clinical program spanning TNBC, multiple gynecologic cancers, RCC and bladder cancer.
Our commitment to innovation and addressing the unique needs of patients and health care systems extends to KEYTRUDA QLEX, our subcutaneous pembrolizumab with berahyaluronidase alfa. The launch is off to a strong start. In the U.S., we have seen a good acceleration in adoption since the establishment of the permanent J code on April 1. The adoption rate exiting the first quarter was in the mid-single digits, supporting our confidence that we are on track to achieve 30% to 40% peak adoption by the end of 2027. As expected, the majority of adoption is in patients who are on monotherapy regimens or combinations with other oral therapies.
A recent U.S. label update includes data evaluating patients' preferences between subcutaneous administration of KEYTRUDA and IV KEYTRUDA. Results showed 65% of patients preferred KEYTRUDA QLEX over KEYTRUDA IV where the most common reason being less time spent in the clinic. Outside of the United States, we have received approvals in the EU and U.K. and some other markets. We have made good progress in certain markets and expect launches in additional markets later this year. We anticipate 30% to 40% peak adoption on average globally, with peak penetration varying by market. We continue to be pleased with the impact we are having on certain patients with RCC and other VHL-associated tumors with WELIREG. We look forward to launching 2 additional indications for WELIREG later this year. The first one is LITESPARK-022, the combination of WELIREG with KEYTRUDA in adjuvant RCC, and it has a PDUFA date of June 19 this year. This builds on the foundation set by KEYTRUDA monotherapy based on the KEYNOTE-564 study, and if approved, would be the potential first IO combination treatment option in the adjuvant RCC setting. The study demonstrated meaningful improvement in disease-free survival.
The second one is LITESPARK, the combination of WELIREG with LENVIMA in certain previously treated advanced RCC, and it has a PDUFA date of October 4 this year. This is the potential first and only HIF2 alpha inhibitor plus a VEGF TKI regimen for patients whose disease progressed following anti-PD-1, PD-L1 therapy, and a demonstrated superior PFS versus a modern TKI with improved duration of response.
With these new opportunities in RCC as well as the future potential in combination with zanzalitinib, we believe WELIREG has multibillion-dollar peak commercial potential.
Next is IDXD, our B7-H3-directed ADC in collaboration with Daiichi Sankyo. IDXD has the potential to address unmet need for patients starting in extensive stage small cell lung cancer. Small cell lung cancer is a deadly, rapidly progressive cancer with high unmet need and very poor prognosis. Approximately 10% to 15% of all lung cancers are small cell, and about 70% of patients are diagnosed with extensive-stage disease. Unfortunately, the 5-year survival rate remains just 4% for those with distant metastases.
The FDA has granted priority review for IDXD in certain adults with previously treated extensive stage small cell lung cancer and set a PDUFA date of October 10 this year. This marks an important step for this potential first-in-class therapy.
Beyond extensive stage small cell lung cancer, we have ongoing registrational trials in second-line esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, which represents a much larger patient opportunity. We're also exploring the combination of IDXD with [ galgatamine ], our T cell engager, also in collaboration with Daiichi Sankyo in small cell lung cancer.
As Marjorie described, our development program for sac-TMT is extensive and primarily focused on populations where we aim to be first-in-class. We are also exploring opportunities where we will be competitively advantaged due to the differentiated clinical profile of sac-TMT. Here, we outline the patient opportunity for each -- for each potential indication. The breadth of this program underscores why we believe sac-TMT has the potential to be a cornerstone ADC across a variety of different cancers. sac-TMT is being evaluated in the broadest range of disease and treatment settings of any TROP2-directed ADC with studies across early to late-stage disease in more than 7 tumor types, representing up to approximately 200,000 patients in the U.S., EU and Japan.
Building on Marjorie's comments, I want to emphasize the significance of the TroFuse-005 results. Patients with metastatic endometrial cancer have a medium overall survival of less than 1 year after progression on platinum chemotherapy, and there is no standard of care for the majority of patients whose disease progresses following IO and chemotherapy. sac-TMT is the first and only TROP2 ADC to demonstrate an overall survival benefit in endometrial cancer compared to chemotherapy in these patients with advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer. An approval would further built on our deep expertise in gynecologic cancers, we already have multiple indications and reinforce sac-TMT's role as a potential transformational therapy in this space.
We are building from a strong foundation as we advance the next wave of oncology innovation. We continue to see greater than $25 billion in nonrisk-adjusted commercial opportunity from our oncology late-stage pipeline alone by the mid-2030s. Importantly, this does not include the recent acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals, which has multibillion [indiscernible] commercial potential on its own. Over the coming years, we have the opportunity to bring 14 new products to market for the treatment of cancer across more than 80 new indications. As our product mix diversifies, we expect to establish a meaningful presence in hematology, building on our leadership position today in solid tumors.
In summary, we are highly confident in our oncology position and believe our strong presence will extend well into the next decade. With that, I'll turn it over to Dean for closing remarks.
So thank you so much for your attention here. This evening, we spoke to how we have executed on our oncology strategy, building on our strong foundation with KEYTRUDA while advancing an increasingly diversified pipeline of oncology candidates. In total, as you've heard, we have approximately 60 ongoing Phase III trials at this moment. I would imagine more will be opened. The broad impact of KEYTRUDA right to road map for the future as we develop molecules spanning 3 pillars of biology, immuno-oncology, precision targeting as well as tissue targeting, especially with ADCs.
Now we're deploying these candidates with the goal of maximizing benefit risk and convenience to patients while providing exceptional value for payers. Hopefully, today's presentation has contextualized our strategy and how we prosecute clinical trials. We believe that we are in a strong position to further improve patient outcomes in oncology.
I just want to emphasize that we're here at ASCO, and we're focusing on diversifying in oncology. But we've also said in 2021 that not only do we need to diversify oncology, we have expanded in other therapeutic areas. And I just would emphasize the cadence of readouts that you've just shown, especially what Jannie showed in the last is happening in the other therapeutic areas as well, in cardiometabolic with WINREVAIR otovir and the potential approval of elicitide and the follow-on compounds that follow that in immunology with tolasocopart as well as other immunology assets moving forward, especially in ophthalmology, where we have 2 assets moving fast. And in HIV, we've increasingly shown islatravir as a backbone. So I think this concept of us diversifying and expanding our pipeline since 2021 is important and relevant, not just for oncology, but also across other therapeutic areas and spanning multiple modalities, including small molecules and vaccines, macrocyclic peptide and complex and conjugated biologics.
And with that, I will turn it over to Peter for questions and answers.
All right. Very happy to take your questions. If you could state your name and your firm when asking your question, that would be helpful. So maybe Chris Schott to start.
2. Question Answer
Great. Just maybe a 2-parter on VEGF PD-1. Maybe just first, if you can just provide some context of your view on the data we saw at this conference and how that informs your approach as you consider development programs for 2110.
And then just when we think about that development program, do you think we've had enough derisking of the mechanism where we should think about Merck running a broad set of studies in a wide range of indications similar to what you do with TROP2? Or is this an approach where we could think about maybe a more gradual approach? I'm just -- I know you're not disclosing it, but how to think about that.
Loss of clinical development speak to that Marjorie.
No, no. Thanks so much for the question. I think we are all eagerly awaiting the data presentation of the HARMONY 6 data. And I want to congratulate the investigators and so for running a well-conducted study. With this -- the impact it has is that -- I think it's increased excitement, but also has left a lot of questions still remaining. And that's what I think your question is getting at.
So what was impactful to see was that I think that the hazard ratio for PFS have been 0.6. And unlike the other VEGF checkpoint inhibitor historic studies of chemotherapy combining with IO VEGF, the hazard ratio here was very close to the PFS hazard ratio. And this would actually include HARMONY 2, which had both squamous and nonsquamous in there that hazard ratio that had a much larger drop than you saw here.
The other thing that stands out is the AE profile was what was expected generally for adding in another mechanism, chemotherapy plus a checkpoint inhibitor, now will have a little bit more toxicity than the chemotherapy alone or a checkpoint inhibitor alone. And then you're adding a VEGF inhibitor on top of that, albeit the therapeutic index for safety does appear to have improved a bit with this particular kind of structure and formatting.
So the AE profile is what's expected. It was tolerable, had low rates of discontinuations and no surprising adverse events were noted.
They were very careful in how they talked about patient selection for this because of the historical challenges Avastin had in this space. So particularly in talking about cavitation, about blood vessel involvement. There also was an age cap of over 75. And we know that this is not a disease squamous cell -- non-small cell lung cancer is not a disease of young people. It's a disease of people who have been smoking heavily in their life and often older. I think in the United States, the median age for this might be around 70.
So there -- and when you look at the hazard ratios, for both PFS and for OS, they are not comparable by age. So I think it's clinically compelling. The curves. There's -- they overlap, then they separate.
Open questions. Does this translate into an older population? What is the reason that you have differences in outcomes and robust sample sizes for those younger than 65 and those older. Is there an AE profile? What's going on there? Is this sort of a random chance? It's not known. And the median follow-up is before that really -- you don't know what the OS is going to end up being because of the amount of censoring. It's still fairly early. So are those curves going to stay apart? Or are they going to start to come back together with time? And that's always been this open question when you look historically at the majority of studies that have been conducted with VEGF inhibitors and checkpoint inhibitors in non-small cell lung cancer.
So I dissected it, and the question is sort of what does that mean. And I think what it shows is that there are likely situations where the PFS will translate into a clinically meaningful overall survival. I would like to see this replicated in a global study. There -- the Chinese investigators do an amazing job of running really clean studies. And so I want to see this in a global study and what the data will look like.
The other open questions, you still have heterogeneity results and other tumor types. As far as the -- even in non-small cell lung cancer, if you think about the different HARMONY studies and the shapes of the curves and the hazard ratios, they're not as consistent as this. So to me, that means that there's still open questions about, is this something that will truly unlock benefit everywhere you have seen a VEGF inhibitor work and a checkpoint inhibitor work. And I think the answer is still we don't know.
But this is a positive finding, I think, it's great for patients in China, as I discuss and said. And for us, we've always in all of our studies and everything we do, including our sac-TMT program, we have a disciplined and very data-driven development program. And so we use all of those studies that you saw us flash up looking at all of our knowledge about VEGF inhibitors and checkpoint inhibitor KEYTRUDA combinations, we look at the emerging data. And then we're also thinking about the future because we're very excited, for example, about the OptiTROP-Lung05 data. We're excited about our KRASG12C program. We're thinking about what therapy is going to be looking like in a couple of years, not what it looks like today as we're developing our plan. We have a Phase III-ready asset with MK 2010.
Daina?
Daina Graybosch from Leerink Partners. In the -- in Kelun's OptiTROP-Lung05, I thought sac-TMT plus pembro looked pretty competitive when you compared it indirectly the pembro plus platinum-based chemo, both in 407 and 189. And I wonder what's holding Merck back from starting a head-to-head study with sac-TMT versus 189 and 407 beyond maintenance for 407?
So I'm going to turn this to Marjorie, but I will comment about many of my interactions with many of you over the last 2 to 3 years. And I would just sit there and I just would remind that when we first moved in sac-TMT, I think many questions were asked of why are you coming in to TROP2 ADC when there's 2 ahead of you. And I think what we said there is we don't think all the TROP2 ADCs are the same, just like we don't think all the HER2 ADCs are the same.
I think the other sort of thing that were remarked to us is that we thought that if you could get it right, you could be first in lots of tumors outside of breast and lung. And I think the endometrial data suggests that, that may be possible.
Now the question is because people said, well, you guys blew this out in 17. I've actually gotten questions of why did you blow it out so much. And now I understand your question is, why aren't you blowing it out further? Is that what I understand?
So with that, I'll turn it over to Marjorie.
Yes. No, thanks for the question. And I said our strategy, we are always looking to where we think cancer therapy is going to be. And so thinking back to when we started our program, we recognized from data in 507 and 189 from emerging therapies, and just biologically, we know that lung cancer is not one disease. And there is going to be increasing fragmentation of non-small cell lung cancer, including those who are eligible for KEYNOTE-189. And so we tried to think about where could we add the greatest value, considering that those who have non-squamous cell lung cancer have -- often have the RAS mutations, and that's going to be more subdivided into different therapies. There was the biggest opportunity for those who had squamous carcinoma and needed something to help give them long durable remission. That's what's led to that program.
The other one, TroFuse 007 was based upon -- there are people who don't want to give chemotherapy necessarily to everyone because they're not certain it's going to add benefit and high expresser PD-L1 scores. And so we wanted to show that, yes, we could do that. And again, further help to characterize different opportunities for clinicians and patients of how you could use this drug.
We didn't have the OptiTROP-Lung05 data when we were designing our program. And so we get had to think about how is the clinical practice going to change and recognizing where peer companies were how do you want to develop.
The other thing to consider is that there can be approaches where you combine ADCs and chemotherapy together. So if you're going to do a 189 head-to-head and try and take these populations together and to sort of replace, it is that you want to ensure that you've got really robust efficacy and some people have taken, let's combine chemotherapy in the ADC together. And there is one potential replacement study that's out there. But the combinations of therapy, when you look at other ADC chemotherapy combinations and some of the ones done in lung cancer, the response rates have not increased, suggesting the benefit may actually be the maintenance approach.
So are you going to get more toxicity? Are you going to impact the doses of either the ADC or the chemotherapy by combining them together and then adding a checkpoint inhibitor. And so I think our maintenance approach is where we think the biggest benefit is going to be there from what we knew when we started that study.
I don't speak to the future too much because it's a highly competitive environment as Angus who's in the room talked about in his Veropharm article. But I do think that it is important for us to look at our portfolio and look at
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the data generated in China to what we get in the global study. And I think one of the things I'll say is someone who's worked on antibody drug conjugates in 3 different companies is they are fairly consistent when you look at response rate, duration response and that translates into overall survival often. And so I can't forecast, as Dean said, what the TroFuse-005 study looks like. You'll have to wait until we're presenting it publicly, but it's compelling data that we think that we were able to have confidence in from the Phase II data enough to start the Phase III.
Great. Thanks, Steve. Michael Yee.
Michael Yee from UBS. With sac-TMT, it would seem to me that, obviously, you have the potential to also combine with a PD-1 VEGF. To what extent are you generating data either with 2010 that you are observing? Or that your partner Kelun in China is also generating data with sac-TMT with other novel agents including other PD-1 VEGFs that could be generating data that you could be learning from?
Yes, it actually gets a little bit to -- I think it was Courtney's question, is when you ask us what future looks like, one of the things that we ask ourselves is what will the future look like for a PD-1 in relationship to sac-TMT. And so that's something that, clearly, has been on our minds and clearly on the minds of our partner, Kelun, as well. But with that, I'll just ask Marjorie any comments you wanted to make?
I think that we have not publicly talked about our plans of sac-TMT in 2010. And so I'm going to keep that to myself at this moment. The same thing, Kelun's got their own stuff that they're doing as well. And so there's no public information available this time. Stay tuned.
Great. Thanks, Michael. Maybe in the back, Trung.
Trung Huynh from UBS. So some of your VEGF PD-1 competitors, they're optimistic for PFS-based approvals in first-line lung cancer. If you have a look at all of your TroFuse lung studies, they use OS as the primary endpoint. Is there a mechanistic nuance here? Does the FDA view ADCs differently than IO bispecifics for approval just based on PFS?
And then does HARMONY 6 make you want to move faster? Slower? Or does it not change your Phase III development time lines for this class? I know you mentioned you're not going to share your development time lines, but could we be sat here next year knowing what that Phase III program is? Your peers are accelerating quickly.
I love how the questions come. What I'll first say about the FDA is the FDA in the fields have been reasonably consistent. OS is a really important endpoint. And I would just emphasize, it's not just important for the FDA and regulatory agents fees, the payer who's being asked to pay for antibody-drug conjugates over chemo, they have some say in this. And so we think it's very important to keep that in mind, but I don't know how you want to dance around the rest of his question.
Well, I think the question PFS is a clinically meaningful endpoint across multiple diseases. It really is. And lung cancer, unfortunately, has been a disease where there have not been many really remarkable advances until maybe the last 10 to 15 years. And so people have wanted to see overall survival improvement. As outcomes get better and better, it becomes more difficult to actually demonstrate overall survival. And so there may be a future where PFS could be considered in the United States as the only endpoint needed as long as you can show lack of detriment. You're not hurting people with the OS and that people are getting some benefit there. I don't know that we're there today.
And if you think about antibody drug conjugates, they are much more potent cytotoxics that are given directly to the cancer cells than IV chemotherapy, and you would expect a profound PFS benefit that, hopefully, would translate into overall survival. And so I think that there our differences and studies and endpoint somewhat based upon the timing and the initiation of the studies rather than a fundamental belief in the mechanistic action of different drugs.
And as to your second question of how excited I am or the speed at which I'm going there, we are -- we have a Phase III-ready asset. We are data-driven. We are disciplined. We have a great portfolio that can be combined with and you'll have to stay tuned.
Carter?
Carter Gould, Cantor Fitzgerald. Dr. Green, you alluded to your biomarker strategy for, I believe, for your TROP2. Can you provide any further detail there and how you're thinking about deploying that? There's additional work that needs to be done before we see that rolled out? And any details particularly around differentiating versus some of your competitor approaches with their -- there were biomarker strategies in the space.
Yes. So I'll just say something and I'll hand it to Marjorie. I think it's important that we have -- that one has a biomarker plan and a biomarker ability, but that biomarker ability can be broadly distributed, especially in the United States and Europe and other places. But the other sort of thing I just want to emphasize what Marjorie said is that just because you have a biomarker, it doesn't mean that you're going to use that biomarker in every indication. But with that, Marjorie?
Yes. No, no. Thank you. We haven't been as public about our biomarker plan as some peer companies have been in talking about what they're doing. And we have extensive IHC capabilities that through the very large development program that we've done with our partners in China, you also might have seen some of the digital pathology information that has come out at ASCO this year that we are working on. And so as Dean said, it is not a one-size-fits-all approach. And I think it underlies the mechanism of antibody direct conjugates and how you're trying to predict response because there are multiple pieces that go in. And each company's drug is different, the ADCs are different and how you might approach selections difference as the antibody against the target, how well does it internalize, what does the linker payload do? What is the expression level on different tumor cells? How effective is the bystander effect? How much efflux pump is there in a particular tumor type? All of those can change response and therefore, prediction of response may vary tremendously based upon the ADC. So I can say is that, that probably gives you -- I can't tell you because the drugs are different. The biomarkers are different. The tumors are different. The settings are different. And so it depends that we are well set up in our ongoing Phase III studies.
Courtney?
Courtney Breen. Just a question on the heme portfolio that you characterized on the slides today. This hasn't necessarily been an area that Merck has been in commercial markets with in the past. And certainly, you've done some deals recently that perhaps others had stepped away from. And so I would love to understand kind of why is now the right time for Merck to succeed in this space? And why are these assets going to set you up for success here, particularly given kind of some others have accelerated past you, thinking about Lilly with potabritinib and some of the others as well. So I would love to just hear a little bit about why you believe now is the right time for Merck?
I'll let her -- Marjorie touch on the different assets, especially the ones that you mentioned. And then I'll make some comments in relationship to our ambition to move into heme, especially after -- we felt that it was a really important place for us to make a good foray in because it's such an important part of oncology.
Yes. No, thanks for the question. Each of the assets, we think, is compelling and the -- has the ability to make a meaningful benefit for people with different hematologic diseases. And many of these diseases are ones that are often chronic in nature. And so thinking about different assets such as like [indiscernible], this is a drug because it has a slightly broader kinase activity and it also has a bit of a flexible binding that can adapt to different mutations. Preclinical studies have demonstrated that there are low rates of development of resistance in the target over time when compared to other laboratory animal model studies of other assets and what's been published, for example, in [indiscernible] 1. And so it's that kind of what can you get from that is potentially people do not develop resistance. And with the mutations of the binding site that then allows for treatment across multiple lines or the preserved ability to continue to use a drug like nertinib. And so that was what was really interesting to us about it.
I think that our studies also were done to truly because this is a disease where people have been using sometimes the same therapy since the first-generation drugs for a long, long time, and they haven't moved off of them, to really make sure that we are comparing against what is a first-line standard of care. We didn't combine multiple populations into a study and try to sort of say this works. So we really took a very different development approach to reflect the practice of physicians and the needs of the patient. So that's why we're excited about [indiscernible] and why we've developed there.
Very similar considerations have gone into the other assets. So I talked about Zolibertimab from vedotin. And Polivy is a similar drug, different target that's already approved. But we saw that in some of their initial Phase III data sets that the majority of benefit was in one subpopulation of its large B-cell lymphoma, whereas ZB works in both. So those are the kind of approaches that have led to our development and why we continue to be excited about the portfolio.
I do want to pick up on one of the things that you asked, which was from a commercial standpoint. And I think it's appropriate that Jannie make a comment because Jannie's experience and solid tumor in this, we are making a foray in heme both benign heme and heme malignancy. And I think I should turn it over to Jannie.
Yes, thank you, Dean. And I would just say, we've always had an ambition to diversify beyond KEYTRUDA, right? And we're doing that in solid tumors. We've always -- and Sophie can speak to this as well, it's been an ambition to also diversify into heme malignancies. We know it is different to solid tumors, but it is adjacent. We believe that we have significant capability that we can scale across hematology as well. And again, I think even though we had the ambition, we move with the science, we move with products that we think is going to bring meaningful value. And I think we now have 5 assets enhance that in and that can take us down that path. So I don't know if there's something that you would add.
I think I think to your point, we have now critical mass in terms of hematology to be able to build the commercial organization. We are looking at a disease over a large value pool like CLL over DLBCL, but also in an area where there has been no innovation like essential [indiscernible], and we believe that we can kind of shape the market with new and effective therapy
But also in relationship to your question, I would just emphasize, when we're talking about we're trying to give you a sense of the cadence of data readouts. I mean, I think we have listed 3 PCD dates in 2027 for heme assets and then an additional one in '29. So we're trying to lay out -- these are coming and you'll see it, and it's coming sooner than I think many people recognize.
Great. Jason?
Great. Jason Gerberry, Bank of America. So I just have a question on OptiTROP-Lung05 and I preface by saying feedback we hear from a lot of oncology KOLs is reluctance to subject patients to maybe ADC toxicities in the PDL high segment. So I'm just curious if you can speak to in OptiTROP-Lung05, any color on the management of the AEs through support of care, be it either anemia requiring transfusions or any prophylactic measures with stomatitis? And then if those measures are implemented in the counterpart TROP2 study?
Yes. Thanks for the question. Benefit and risk are always critical for the patient and the oncologist, and we agree with that. And the reason you would want to consider something beyond KEYTRUDA in this population is that while survival is good, there's still a lot of people who, unfortunately, have progression and die with high PD-L1 expression tumors. So antibody drug conjugates are still cytotoxic therapy in the current generation that are out there. And so they will have cytotoxic activity or side effects. And most of them are related to where there's expression of TROP2, so you get GI toxicities with them or it's related to some small circulation of the payload, and that's where you're getting some of the hematologic toxicities.
These are toxicities that physicians are very, very comfortable in managing. In the OptiTROP-Lung05 study, the AE rate reporting, so the way AEs are reported in China studies, is that all hematologic labs are reported as adverse events, whether a physician thinks they're clinically meaningful or not. That doesn't happen necessarily in global studies. There was no use of primary growth factor support in this study for mouth sores for stomatitis in China. They do not routinely use steroid mouthwash. They'll use baking soda mouth rinse, oral hygiene, other kind of care events, and have, in our global studies, we are very aggressive with secondary use of growth factors as well as mouth care, including oral stomatitis management because the study was started a while ago, and we've learned and have really adapted.
I think there is a question that people sometimes ask about, will AEs in a China study be the same as you would see in a global study. And you can look at there are other TROP2 ADCs, who have very similar rates of stomatitis and as well as low grade and most of them are thankfully low grade as well as Grade 3, and they're fairly consistent across most of the studies.
So it's going to be -- does this affect quality of life? Are people going to be able to take it? And I think with these kinds of adverse effects, particularly low-grade ones that, yes, hematologic ones tend to not be disruptive for the patients. And it's that benefit is the PFS and OS there for these patients, and that's what will change instead of just using KEYTRUDA as a monotherapy.
Jon Miller.
Jon Miller from Evercore ISI. I'll ask a question about something else big at this conference that we haven't talked a lot about, and that's the RAS space. Dr. Green, you mentioned, do you expect to see, for instance, lung get more and more fragmented. You specifically called out RAS is a potential population where that's going to happen. But when I look at your pipeline, I see a relatively thin list of of assets in that space compared to a large list of assets in development across the field. So what are your plans for RAS? How do you think that is going to develop in lung and beyond? And when can we hear more from you about the [indiscernible].
I'm going to take a first shot and then give it to Marjorie, but I just would just -- when one thinks about the RAS space, it may be reasonable. RAS is in so many tumors. But a simple way to think about is think about lung, pancreas and CRC. The first movers in RAS were really important in G12C. I think that some of you have asked, why are you doing a RAS program. And the concern that we had back in 2018, 2019, was whether those RAS molecules could really survive the ability to get into first-line lung. And this goes to one of the comments that Marjorie says, combinability is critical. So the quality of your molecule and the combinability, in that case with a PD-1, is critically important. So we have a study that Marjorie will talk about, which is we're hoping to lay that down in first-line lung for G12C, which will be important.
We also look at the G12C and ask ourselves, what does it teach us about other tumors? G12C is not prevalent in pancreas, but it is, in some sense, in CRC. So the ability to see, even in a small percentage, what that monotherapy looks like and how well it combines with the other medicine that's not PD-1 in that standpoint, it's cetuximab. And so that data is coming out. We believe that we have to be outside of G12C clearly, and we have an asset 4716 that is advancing with pace. We -- the way I would simply say it, it's a non-G12C broader RAS molecule. We haven't cleared what it is exactly, but that's moving at pace in clinical development as well. But I think it would be worthwhile to give an update of how you look at that data, especially the ones that we hope to advance, especially in G12C and first line in lung and in CRC.
Yes. No, thank you so much. I think Dean really highlighted what -- how we've been thinking about this, and it does fit in with our strategy is that to have the best effect, you need to be able to combine and caldorasib, and you saw the breakthrough therapy designation. I talked about it has really well-tolerated AE profile combined with pembrolizumab. And the activity is compelling. And so we have a series of Phase III studies in non-small cell lung cancer. We have one in those who have TPS scores greater than 50% [indiscernible] 004. And then we also have one with QLEX combined with KEYTRUDA QLEX where we are going head to head against the 189 regimen because we are so impressed with the tolerability combinability, the importance of hitting a driver mutation with a very potent and clean targeted therapy. We also have studies in the adjuvant setting and in unresectable non-small cell lung cancer.
And then because this is combinable and you might have seen the data in colorectal cancer, we have pretty robust monotherapy activity with our G12C inhibitor compared to some of the peer assets that have published information. And when we combine with cetuximab and chemotherapy, the responses are quite robust and durable. So we have a study ongoing in colorectal cancer.
So we have a broad development program there. And as Dean said, we have MK 4716, but we're not talking about it yet. So this is an important pathway. We want to make certain that we've got assets that meet those characteristics of being single agent active and combinable to ensure that we are improving therapeutic index and ability to benefit patients.
Mohit.
Mohit Bansal from Wells Fargo. Before I start, first of all, congratulations on the data. Since I congratulated, I can ask 2 parter probably. So the question is, so since you talked about combined ability, I think how do you think about the combined ability of the top 2 ADC and VEGF PD-1 here? And when you think about the combinations in the future, I mean, yes, you have a Phase II-ready asset in VEGF PD1, but the competition is a few years ahead. How would you think about partnering your sac-TMT with other PD-1 VEGF that are out there to get to the market sooner? Because with KEYTRUDA, you did the strategy, you played the strategy where it worked out really well for you. So I just want to understand that part.
So if I understood, the question is when you have a really important compound, are you willing to combine it with other people's compound almost agnostic, a little bit of what we did with KEYTRUDA in some sense. I would say that we're always open to that, and we're always open to that, not just in oncology, but we're open to that in non-oncology where you have really important assets, whether it's WINREVAIR or something like that. So that's something we've always considered. And that's something that, depending on the opportunity.
But having said it, I do think that -- as you specifically talk to PD-1 VEGF, we have a PD-1 VEGF that we're quite confident in, and we have a really good portfolio of ADCs and other compounds that you could combine. And one of the things is when we think about those studies, one has to think about the speed, the rigor and you have to balance off sharing it and owning 100% of that combination, but you always have to balance it. But I think your point is well taken, and it's something we think about not just for our PD-1 VEGF, it's not just what we think about our sac-TMT, but it's with any asset that we have that we think could really have broad implications. So we are open to it and people know that we're open to it. We did it for KEYTRUDA. We will do it for other compounds in our portfolio, and that answer is not just limited to oncology.
Malcolm?
Malcolm Hoffman here for Evan from BMO. TROP2 agents have been more challenged in non-small cell lung cancer. So much of ASCO because this year, it feels like a discussion on how your TROP2 can be both a leader in non-small cell and a better competitor for some emerging PD-1 VEGF agents. Can you talk about, first, why you think we are seeing such efficacy in non-small cell despite other TROP2 failures? And second, what you think we have learned from this ASCO about competitive positioning of sac-TMT versus these other PD-1 VEGF agents?
So I'm going to make a flippant comment that got picked up by some of you, is that correct, at JPMorgan where I said, not all ADCs are the same. Some can be too loose, some can be too tight and some can be just right. And with that, I'll hand it over to Marjorie.
So yes, I think when we first started working with this, I was talking to the team about Goldilocks and the 3 Bears, and depending upon where you are raised, particularly if you're our China team, they didn't know that story. And so they looked at me very strangely.
It is -- they're not the same. I think that's the hard thing is we think that the ADCs are similar and they're truly not. And so I can't speculate about data sets that you've seen, but you've seen high response rates durability in nonrandomized data sets in the first-line setting with TROP2 ADCs. And I think that there's a lot of different factors that go into successes of studies. But we're very confident in the data that you see, you can't do much better than a randomized Phase III well-conducted study, like we've seen with OptiTROP-Lung05 as well as the other data sets that they've generated. So it's a nonanswer, I think, but it goes back to Dean's part. They're not all the same.
And I would just emphasize the linker payload of Kelun, this TROP2 ADC, as you can see from the slide, is not the only asset. Similarly, I would just say the linker payload of Daiichi Sankyo that they really pioneered is also important, and we don't just have one asset. But how you position these different flavors given the molecular design differences, one has to think thoughtfully about those differences. But I don't -- I want to make sure we respect very much the linker payload of Kelan and go back to the slide. It is not just 1 compound. And we respect very much the linker payload, which is different for Daiichi Sankyo. And you see how we advance them but we're not -- we're advancing them in different ways and different tumors.
All right. Maybe just a couple of more questions. Nick.
Nick Jennings, Goldman Sachs. A question on read-throughs or learnings from OptiTROP-Lung05. First, in lung. What, if anything, in the data makes you feel more confident in the maintenance setting or adjuvant setting? And then outside of lung, are there any derisking things that you see for other indications that you're running in TroFuse? And then finally, is there anything that you can share in terms of prospects for any other interim reads for the TroFuse trials? Are there any trials progressing where you could actually see an interim?
So I'm going to turn it over to Marjorie. But as you guys know, famously, we do not comment on interim analysis. With that, Marjorie.
We don't comment on our analyses. Yes, I am sorry, I had echo Dean there. I think learnings what I was happy to see was consistency of data from sort of the Phase II data sets into the OptiTROP-Lung05, including, as you get into bigger studies will safety be the same, and we saw very consistent data. And so that's, sort of, you think about how do you take that kind of information. This is also not the first Phase III that we have from our partners. They've had multiple Phase III readouts. And so we're seeing consistent data across multiple indications with the AE profile, with the dose modification, with the discontinuation. And that is how we have learned in our global studies to be able to ensure that AE management is as tight as possible.
Physicians are so good at learning how to manage toxicities over time. But in global studies, we don't want them to have to learn in real time because it puts the patient in a bad spot and our ability to show a benefit at a disadvantage. And so that information has informed for how we are overseeing and how we're managing our Phase III programs.
Vamil?
Vamil Divan from Guggenheim. So 2 for me. So one, obviously, you laid out a lot of -- what you've done to diversify away from KEYTRUDA. Just curious if you want to comment more on kind of where you see openings to further differ supply, whether it's modalities, mechanisms based on it was at ASCO or just more generally and feel free to take that outside of oncology, if you want to.
And then just the second part is just around the -- obviously, a lot of interesting data from China. You guys are taking advantage of this. Just how were thinking of balancing, I guess, obviously a large U.S. biopharma company, how you're balancing sort of leveraging the speed of development in China, but also investing in the U.S. I think a lot of concerns raised here around what this means for the U.S. biopharma industry. So any comments you want to make there?
So I'm going to take your last question because I heard that completely. I think that China is an important player, and we've recognized that. I mean I just -- our partnership with Kelun is not just about assets, it's about their people and how they think. And we're very lucky to have that collaboration. And we have recognized that, and I can't remember when it was publicly disclosed. Maybe it was publicly disclosed in '22, something like that, but we have worked with them longer than that. And so we have enormous respect for what they do. But I also want to just emphasize that there are so many important things that are happening outside of China. And I would just emphasize, for example there is a possibility that for the first time after, I don't know, 3, 4 years, it could be "a cancer vaccine" does -- and I don't mean hepatitis B, GARDASIL or EBV, I mean that. And that's something that we're extremely lucky to be partnered with Moderna. So I just want to make sure that, that's emphasized.
And then when you look at -- you guys talked about the KRAS space. You have to give credit to, for example, Amgen and Mirati. They pioneered that with Switch2. And you have to give incredible kudos to the work done from Rev Med using a tri-complex inhibitors. So for us, it's important to take innovation from the best places throughout the globe. And I hope that we continue to do that because these diseases take more than one bright idea. So that's where I would lay that question is. What was the first?
Part one was other areas within oncology that you might consider moving into?
So one is the heme. We just want to make sure you guys realize we're making a array in heme. And I'm not sure if he's listening, but it's a little bit of a homage to Roy Baynes, who's a heme malignancy who was stuck doing a whole bunch of solid tumor stuff and did a pretty reasonable job if I may say so. But this is a bone marrow transplant heme malignancy guy. So if we're successful with this, I hope that he will eat at a burger joint with me, and I will give him enlicitide, but that's a place.
But the other place is tissue targeting. We think tissue targeting is really important. We talked about antibody drug conjugates. We talked about Kelun, we talked about Daiichi Sankyo, but we have not revealed the internal pipeline that is moving fast. Tissue targeting is not just with a chemo payload. There's other payloads that you can do. And increasingly, the work -- actually, you have to give Roger some credit at a different company who was very much advancing T-cell engagers largely in heme malignancy, but there's been a corner turn with T cell engagers in solid tumors.
So you see it in our -- right? We look at KEYNOTE-189 and Cetera, that's great. But for small cell lung cancer, what you see is that we're trying to do KEYNOTE-189 there. How we're trying to do it, we're trying to use a next-gen chemo with an ADC and the next-gen IO with a T cell engager. And if that works, we wonder how broad that principle is in places where maybe pembro didn't work as well as we had hoped. So those places are really important to us.
So I know there's still a few hands going up. We may be able to remain here for a few minutes after we're done to answer any follow-up questions, but we'll end with Meacham.
Meacham from Citi. On your broader ADC strategy, given sector MDs studied across various indications and assuming it moves into earlier lines, across different tier indications. How do you think about downstream treatment sequencing with your other ADC especially [ 41 ADC? ] Just trying to get a sense of your internal framework for avoiding ADC overlap across targets, payloads or tumor indications.
Yes. I mean I will give it to Marjorie. But every time you come up with therapy as great as KEYTRUDA. Number one is not everyone responds, right? And the other second thing is you can respond and then not respond. So it's almost like an incessant need for constant innovation. So with that, I'll turn it over to Marjorie.
Yes, I think this is why we have such an extensive biomarker program in our sac-TMT firm as well as in our other targeted therapies is that it is -- because of antibody drug conjugates as one example and here what you've asked about, have multiple ways that they can work through bystander effect through sort of the differences in the payload, the DAR, there are going to be differences amongst all of these drugs. And so some of them may need to have specific enrichment to get to where you may want to use drug A versus drug B.
Yes. I think it's to be determined how these will separate at what time. We've already seen some antibody drug conjugates approved to have biomarkers, like in ovarian cancer, wherever that has happened, and we've seen them in bladder where it doesn't. So I'm not going to speculate on the future. I think it is important to understand where people are most likely to have benefit and least likely to have detriment. And that will help separate out how these drugs work over time is the general guess.
There's very immature data about the ability to sequence antibody drug conjugates. There are some -- there are small data sets looking, for example, at the Daiichi's great DXD platform showing that there is less response. When you do, for example, in HER2-positive breast cancer, one into the next. It doesn't mean that, for example, like a [indiscernible] couldn't work, but the same payload may have some challenges. And I think that there is a lot of interest in thinking about what is the mechanism of resistance? Is it [indiscernible] kind of mutation? Is it pump? Could you change the payload to where the pump doesn't kick the payload out? And that will help with the sequencing part. This is true just like with chemotherapy itself is that we generally don't give taxane 1 straight into taxane 2 for most tumors. There are some kind of brakes in payload switching or chemotherapeutic switching. And I think the same thing will be true for ADCs. I'm speculating though.
All right. Thank you all again for your time and attention and some really great questions. We appreciate it. Dean, anything you'd want to close with?
Please enjoy. There's bacon in the back. And [indiscernible], we hope, will be available shortly...
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Merck & Co. — Special Call - Merck & Co., Inc.
Merck & Co. — Special Call - Merck & Co., Inc.
Merck betont auf ASCO die Diversifikation von KEYTRUDA durch ADCs (sac‑TMT), PD‑1/VEGF‑Bispezifika und ein breites Phase‑III‑Programm mit mehreren nahen Zulassungsereignissen.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Merck setzt auf drei biologische Säulen (Immuno‑Onkologie, Präzisions‑Targeting, Gewebe‑Targeting) und berichtet über zunehmende Diversifikation: KEYTRUDA‑Frühanwendungen, subkutane KEYTRUDA QLEX, positive Phase‑III‑Daten für sac‑TMT in Endometrium sowie ein PD‑1/VEGF‑Bispezifikum (MK‑2010). Insgesamt ~60 laufende Phase‑III‑Studien und mehrere PDUFA/Readouts angekündigt.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- sac‑TMT: TroFuse‑005: erster globaler Phase‑III‑Erfolg für ein TROP2‑ADC mit statistisch signifikanter Verbesserung von PFS und OS in bestimmten Endometrium‑Patienten; Merck will Zulassungsdialoge führen.
- KEYTRUDA QLEX: Subkutane Form gewinnt traction (US‑Adoption Ende Q1 mittlere einstellige Prozentpunkte); Ziel: 30–40% Peak‑Penetration global bis Ende 2027.
- Pipeline & Heme: MK‑2010 (PD‑1/VEGF) zeigt frühe Aktivität; Akquisition Terns bringt TERN‑701 (CML) — Ausbau der Hämatologie mit 5 Heme‑Assets geplant.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Randomisierte Phase‑III‑Daten (OptiTROP‑Lung05 und TroFuse‑005) belegen klinischen Nutzen von sac‑TMT in Auswahlindikationen; MK‑2010 liefert positive frühe Signale; wichtige regulatorische Termine: IDXD (PDUFA → 10. Okt), WELIREG‑Zulassungen mit PDUFA‑Terminen (19. Juni und 4. Okt). Mehrere deutliche Readouts bis 2027–2029 angekündigt.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- PD‑1/VEGF‑Mechanik: Diskussion um Übertragbarkeit von PFS‑Signalen auf OS nach HARMONY‑Daten; Merck will Replikation in globalen Studien sehen.
- Positionierung sac‑TMT: Warum nicht Head‑to‑Head gegen bestehende Regime? Merck betont unterschiedliche ADC‑Designs, Indikationswahl (z.B. Squamous vs non‑squamous) und Maintenance‑Strategien statt sofortiger Chemo‑Kombination.
- Biomarker & China‑Daten: Frage nach Einsatz von IHC/digitaler Pathologie zur Selektion; Merck erläutert indikationsspezifische Biomarkerpläne und die Notwendigkeit, China‑Daten global zu bestätigen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Positive TroFuse‑005‑Ergebnisse, mehrere anstehende PDUFA‑Termine und die QLEX‑Adoption liefern klare near‑term‑Katalysatoren; breite Pipeline reduziert KEYTRUDA‑Konzentrationsrisiko. Risiken bleiben: Konkurrenz bei ADCs/PD‑1/VEGF, Reproduzierbarkeit der China‑Daten global sowie regulatorische und Erstattungsfragen.
Merck & Co. — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Merck & Co., Inc. Rahway, New Jersey, USA, First Quarter Sales and Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.
I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Peter Dannenbaum, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Thank you, Julie, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the First Quarter 2026 Conference Call for Merck & Co, inc. Rahway, New Jersey, USA. Speaking on today's call will be Rob Davis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Caroline Litchfield, Chief Financial Officer; and Dr. Dean Li, President of Research Labs.
Before we get started, I'd like to point out that we have items in our GAAP results such as acquisition-related charges, restructuring costs and certain other items that we have excluded from our non-GAAP results. There is a reconciliation in our press release.
I will also remind you that some of the statements that we make today may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are made based on the current beliefs of our company's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. If our underlying assumptions prove inaccurate or uncertainties materialize, actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.
Our SEC filings, including Item 1A in the 2025 10-K, identify certain risk factors and cautionary statements that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from those projected in any of our forward-looking statements made this morning. Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, New Jersey USA, undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.
During today's call, a slide presentation will accompany our speakers' prepared remarks. These slides, along with the earnings release, today's prepared remarks and our SEC filings are all posted to the Investor Relations section of our company's website.
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Rob.
Thank you, Peter. Good morning, and thank you for joining today's call. Advancing and delivering breakthrough science to address unmet medical needs remains the foundation of our strategy to create sustainable value for patients and shareholders. We continue to make tangible progress in accelerating and augmenting our pipeline. And with the recent new product launches, the transformation of our portfolio to a far more diversified set of commercial drivers is now well underway.
Turning to our first quarter results. We delivered year-over-year growth with revenue of $16.3 billion, driven by continued strength in oncology, animal health and growing contributions from new products. We remain confident in our outlook for 2026, which Caroline will speak to in a moment.
We also achieved several important pipeline milestones, the FDA approved IDVYNSO as a new treatment option for adults with virologically suppressed HIV-1, reflecting our ongoing commitment to innovation to address the evolving needs of people living with HIV.
Additionally, the FDA granted priority review for I-DXd, our antibody drug conjugate being developed in collaboration with Daiichi Sankyo for adult patients with previously treated extensive stage small cell lung cancer.
In ophthalmology, we initiated Phase IIb/III studies in neovascular age-related macular degeneration for MK-8748, our TIE-2/VEGF bispecific antibody. The second candidate from our acquisition of iBio. We also presented important Phase III results across multiple other therapeutic areas.
Finally, in our Animal Health business, we have high expectations for long-term growth, driven by new and ongoing product launches. We're pleased to have introduced NUMELVI to the U.S. market, the first and only second-generation JAK inhibitor for allergic dermatitis in dogs.
Our planned acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals with its promising candidate for certain patients with chronic myeloid leukemia is another example of our science-led business development strategy in action. TERN-701 has the potential to be a best-in-class therapy in a disease where there is an opportunity to further improve depth and duration of response for patients. Given the substantial unmet need for additional options, we believe TERN-701 has multibillion-dollar commercial potential and will be a significant driver of growth in the next decade. This transaction demonstrates our disciplined approach to pursuing business development when compelling science and value align. And we are confident in our belief that TERN-701 can benefit patients while generating value for our shareholders.
Looking ahead, we continue to expect a particularly robust period of Phase III data readouts from novel candidates over the next 18 months. Our portfolio is undergoing a meaningful transformation to one with a rapidly expanding and diversified set of growth drivers. We're in the midst of initial launches of over 20 new products, almost all of which have blockbuster potential across a broad set of therapeutic areas.
To move with the speed and precision this opportunity demands, we announced an evolution of our commercial operating structure. Our new business unit model, organized around products in therapeutic areas is built to drive accountability, sharpen focus and increase agility, ensuring that every part of our commercial organization delivers on the promise of our pipeline for patients.
We're pleased to welcome Brian Ford to our executive team to lead our new specialty, pharma and infectious diseases business unit. While Yani Ushausen has been appointed to lead our new global oncology and MSD International business unit. Corp Guindo has taken leadership of a newly formed strategic access policy and communications unit. Each of these individuals brings deep experience to these important roles. Together, this leadership team and structure will enable strong execution of our strategy, which includes extending our leadership in oncology while building a powerful, diversified portfolio across a range of therapeutic areas. We're confident that this change will best position us to deliver on a potential commercial opportunity of over $70 billion by the mid-2030s from these 20-plus anticipated new growth drivers alone.
We're also taking important additional steps to accelerate our ongoing transformation as it relates to artificial intelligence. Last week, we announced a multiyear partnership with Google Cloud to scale advanced AI, data and agentic capabilities across our company. This complements our recently expanded collaboration with Tempus AI designed to advance our precision oncology strategy as well as a recent agreement with the Mayo Clinic that will allow us to leverage Mayo's clinical insights and genomic data sets at scale. Together, these efforts support improved productivity across our organization and create a real opportunity to advance the innovation in our pipeline with greater speed and with a higher likelihood of ultimately reaching patients.
As we look forward, we continue to see robust demand for our innovative medicines and vaccines around the world. We're investing behind our pipeline, optimizing our operating structure and are fully committed to our purpose of using leading-edge science to save and improve lives. We're encouraged by the progress we're making and look forward to the many significant milestones coming in the months ahead.
In summary, we remain confident in our strategy and in our ability to deliver sustained growth and value for our shareholders.
Before I turn the call over to Caroline, I want to recognize Sanat Chattopadhyay and Joe Romanelli, both of whom have announced the retirements from Merck. Sanat and Joe have made lasting contributions to our company and to the patients we serve, and I want to thank them for their many years of impact. And now to Caroline.
Thank you, Rob. Good morning. As Rob noted, we delivered growth in the quarter driven by continued strength in Oncology and Animal Health as well as increasing contributions from our many compelling product launches. Our commercial and operational execution continues to enable us to generate strong results in the short term while we advance our broad and deep pipeline and invest in innovation to deliver long-term value for patients, customers and shareholders.
Now turning to our first quarter results. Total company revenues were $16.3 billion, an increase of 5% or 3% excluding the impact of foreign exchange. The following revenue comments will be on an ex exchange basis.
In Oncology, sales of the KEYTRUDA family of products which includes KEYTRUDA and KEYTRUDA QLEX, increased 8% to $8 billion, with global growth driven by continued strong demand from metastatic indications and robust uptake in earlier-stage cancers.
Strong utilization in tumors that primarily affect women, including breast and cervical cancer, continues to be a key contributor to growth. In addition, we saw increased use of KEYTRUDA in combination with Padcev in locally advanced or metastatic urothelial cancer. In the U.S. growth benefited by approximately $250 million from the timing of purchases.
We are pleased with the positive feedback following the recent launch of KEYTRUDA QLEX, Sales in the quarter were $128 million. On April the 1st, we received the permanent J code, and we look forward to having an even greater impact on patients and health care systems.
Our broader oncology portfolio achieved another quarter of strong growth. Notably, WELIREG sales increased 43% to $199 million driven by continued uptake from ongoing launches in international markets and increased use in certain patients with previously treated advanced renal cell carcinoma in the U.S. We look forward to potentially reaching more patients with renal cell carcinoma, following positive results from the LITESPARK-011 and -022 studies.
In Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, GARDASIL sales were $1.1 billion, a decrease of 22%, driven by lower demand in China and Japan, consistent with our expectations. In the U.S., sales declined 10%, primarily due to timing of CDC purchases, which was partially offset by price.
In pneumococcal, CAPVAXIVE continues to progress well, with sales of $142 million, an increase of 31%. Outside of the U.S., sales were driven by uptake from ongoing launches in certain markets. In the U.S., growth was driven by increased demand from both retail pharmacies and nonretail customers, partially offset by a reduction in wholesaler inventory.
In Cardiometabolic and Respiratory, WINREVAIR continues to have a positive impact on patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension. Global sales were $525 million, a reflection of the continued strong demand for this important therapy. In the U.S., we continued to see steady progress with more than 1,600 new patients having received a prescription and an increase in usage by patients with background therapies do not include a prostacyclin. Outside the U.S., we continue to progress with securing reimbursement and ongoing launches.
Sales of OHTUVAYRE, a novel maintenance treatment for adults with COPD, were $131 million. As expected, sales were adversely impacted by the CMS reimbursement change as well as Medicare deductible resets. We are encouraged by the prescription trends, which began to recover in March.
Consistent with our strategy to maximize OHTUVAYRE's strong potential, we are making investments to reach more patients and physicians, which we expect will accelerate growth in the second half of the year and beyond.
Our Animal Health business delivered another quarter of strong growth, with sales increasing 6%. Livestock sales grew 8%, driven primarily by higher demand for ruminants and poultry products as well as price. Companion animal sales increased 4% due to new product launches and price, partially offset by a reduction in vet visits.
I will now walk you through the remainder of our P&L, and my comments will be on a non-GAAP basis.
Gross margin was 81.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points.
Operating expenses increased to $15.2 billion, including a $9 billion onetime charge related to the acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics. Excluding this charge, operating expenses grew 2%, reflecting increased investments in support of our key growth drivers, partially offset by benefits of our multiyear optimization effort and recognition of a portion of the external funding for sac-TMT.
Other expense increased to $318 million, primarily reflecting financing related to recent business development transactions.
Our tax provision was $957 million. As a result of the nontax deductible onetime charge for Cidara, we had a pretax loss this quarter resulting in a tax rate of negative 43.5%.
Taken together, we reported a loss of $1.28 per share. which includes a negative impact of $3.62 per share from the onetime charge related to Cidara.
Now turning to our 2026 non-GAAP guidance. We have narrowed the range and raised the midpoint of both our full year revenue and EPS guidance. We now expect revenue to be between $65.8 billion and $67 billion, representing growth of 1% to 3%, including a positive impact from foreign exchange of approximately 1 percentage point using mid-April rates.
Our gross margin assumption remains approximately 82%.
Operating expenses are assumed to be between $36 billion and $36.8 billion. This range does not include the proposed acquisition of Terns or any additional significant potential business development transactions.
Other expense is expected to be approximately $1.3 billion.
We assume a full year tax rate between 23.5% and 24.5%, which reflects the nontax deductible onetime charge for Cidara.
We assume approximately 2.48 billion shares outstanding.
Taken together, we expect EPS of $5.04 to $5.16, including a positive impact from foreign exchange of approximately $0.10 using mid-April rates.
It is important to note that this guidance does not include the impact of the proposed acquisition of Terns, which is expected to close soon. We expect the transaction will result in a onetime charge that will increase research and development expense by approximately $5.8 billion or approximately $2.35 per share.
In addition, ongoing investment to advance TERN-701 and the assumed cost of financing will negatively impact EPS by approximately $0.12 this year.
As you consider your models, there are a few items to keep in mind. For KEYTRUDA, recall that while growth benefited from the timing of wholesaler purchases in the first quarter, we will face a corresponding headwind in the third quarter.
For ENFLONSIA, consistent with the first quarter, we expect minimal sales in the second quarter, given the seasonal nature of the product and continued high levels of RSV monoclonal antibody inventory in the market. We are actively engaging customers in advance of the RSV season and remain focused on educating health care professionals and parents on the importance of protecting infants from this potentially serious disease and expect shipments to increase in the second half of the year.
Lastly, we expect SG&A expenses to increase over the remainder of the year as we invest to maximize the impact of our recent and upcoming launches.
Now turning to capital allocation, where our strategy remains unchanged. We will prioritize investments in our business to drive near- and long-term growth, including new product launches and a robust pipeline.
We remain committed to the dividend with the goal of increasing it over time.
Business development remains a high priority as evidenced by our recently announced acquisition of Terns. We maintain the ability within a strong investment-grade credit rating to pursue additional, science-driven, value-enhancing transactions going forward.
We are on pace for approximately $3 billion of share repurchases this year, as previously communicated.
To conclude, we are confident in the outlook for our business driven by global demand for our innovative medicines and vaccines, including our many new product launches. We remain committed to bringing forward medically significant innovations that will enable us to deliver value to patients, customers and shareholders well into the future.
With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to Dean.
Thank you, Caroline. Good morning. Progress continued with a steady cadence of clinical and regulatory development. Today, I will provide updates in cardiometabolic and respiratory, oncology, infectious diseases and ophthalmology then conclude with key upcoming milestones.
Starting with cardiometabolic and respiratory. The global burden of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease remains significant. And with recently updated clinical guidelines recommending lower LDL-cholesterol thresholds, there remains a need for innovation that is broadly accessible.
At the American College of Cardiology Congress last month, additional Phase III data were presented for enlicitide, our investigational oral PCSK9 inhibitor. Enlicitide is designed to reduce LDL cholesterol in a similar manner to PCSK9 antibody therapies with the simplicity of a daily pill.
The Phase III CORALreefAddOn study demonstrated statistically significant and clinically meaningful greater reductions in LDL-cholesterol at 8 weeks compared to other oral add-on lipid-lowering therapies when added to background statin therapy. Of note, enlicitide also showed statistically significant greater reductions across key secondary endpoints, including apolipoprotein B and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol.
The CORALreef program has generated compelling evidence for the efficacy and safety of enlicitide As a pill, enlicitide has the potential to democratize access to a potent lipid-lowering therapy. With clinical guidelines targeting lower LDL-cholesterol targets, the field of preventive cardiology is increasingly energized and focused on early, aggressive LDL-cholesterol reduction.
Also at ACC, we showed full results from the Phase II CADENCE trial, evaluating WINREVAIR in adults with combined post- and pre-capillary pulmonary hypertension and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. WINREVAIR met the primary endpoint of reduction from baseline in pulmonary vascular resistance compared to placebo. At the 0.3 milligram per kilogram dose, WINREVAIR prolonged the time to first occurrence of a clinical worsening event, which was an exploratory secondary endpoint with a hazard ratio of 0.18. Results provide compelling proof-of-concept and warrant further evaluation in Phase III. This is an underdiagnosed condition with an extremely poor prognosis. There are currently no approved therapies.
Moving to Oncology, KEYTRUDA now has 44 FDA-approved indications across 19 tumor types as well as 2 tumor-agnostic approvals and continues to generate evidence further transforming cancer care.
In the first quarter, the FDA and European Commission approved KEYTRUDA in combination with paclitaxel, with or without bevacizumab, for the treatment of certain patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer based on the findings of KEYNOTE-B96. This is the first PD-1 inhibitor based regimen to show a statistically significant improvement in both progression-free survival and overall survival versus paclitaxel with or without bevacizumab for these patients.
We also announced findings from the KEYNOTE-B15 study demonstrated KEYTRUDA plus Padcev reduced the risk of event-free survival related events by 47% and risk of death by 35% for cisplatin eligible patients with muscle invasive bladder cancer. This is the first and only perioperative immunotherapy plus ADC regimen to extend survival for these patients. Based on these data, the FDA has accepted supplemental BLA filings for KEYTRUDA and KEYTRUDA QLEX under priority review and is targeting an action date of August 17. KEYNOTE-B15 is the sixth study of a KEYTRUDA-based regimen to demonstrate overall survival in an earlier stage cancer and, if approved, would mark the 12th earlier-stage indication for KEYTRUDA.
We also continue to make progress across the broader oncology portfolio. WELIREG, our first-in-class oral HIF-2-alpha inhibitor initially approved for the treatment of certain patients with von Hippel-Lindau syndrome has now shown additional clinical data for patients with renal cell carcinoma across multiple stages of disease.
The LITESPARK-022 study evaluating WELIREG plus KEYTRUDA in the adjuvant setting, demonstrated a 28% reduction in the risk of disease recurrence or death compared to KEYTRUDA alone. In addition, the LITESPARK-011 study, evaluating WELIREG plus Lenvima, demonstrated a 30% reduction in the risk of disease progression or death in certain patients with advanced RCC and versus cabozantinib.
Supplemental applications for WELIREG in combination with KEYTRUDA or KEYTRUDA QLEX based on LITESPARK-022 were granted priority review by the FDA with the PDUFA date of June 19. The FDA also set a PDUFA date of October 4 for WELIREG in combination with Lenvima based on the LITESPARK-011 study.
As announced last week with our partner, Eisai, the combination regimens from the LITESPARK-012 study did not meet the dual primary end point of progression-free survival and overall survival for the first-line treatment of patients with RCC and compared to KEYTRUDA plus Lenvima. The data from the study provides learnings to the broader program. Studies from the LITESPARK clinical program, including LITESPARK-033 and 034, evaluating WELIREG in combination with zanzalintinib, are ongoing.
Together with our partner, Daiichi Sankyo, we announced that the biologic license application for ifinatamab, deruxtecan, or I-DXd, for the treatment of extensive-stage small cell lung cancer in certain patients with disease progression has been granted priority review by the FDA. This was based on results from the Phase 2 IDeate-Lung01 trial, and the Phase 1/2 IDeate-PanTumor01 trial. The FDA has set a PDUFA date of October 10.
As Rob mentioned, we continue to identify external opportunities to strengthen and diversify our pipeline, most recently with the proposed acquisition of Terns Pharmaceutical. TERN-701, a novel oral allosteric inhibitor of the BCR::ABL oncogene is being evaluated for the treatment of certain patients with chronic myeloid leukemia and has the potential to be an important addition to our growing hematology pipeline. Clinical data has shown encouraging activity with promising rates of major molecular response and deep molecular response by week 24.
Importantly, this includes responses in patients with high disease burden, who previously received multiple lines of therapy. We are eager to get to work with the talented Terns team to advance this program in a timely fashion.
Turning to HIV. Last week, the FDA approved IDVYNSO, our once-daily, single-tablet 2-drug regimen of doravirine and islatravir, a next-generation nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor that blocks translocation, indicated for the treatment of certain adults whose HIV-1 is virologically suppressed based on 2 Phase III SWITCH study. Approval was previously granted in Japan.
IDVYNSO is the first approved 2-drug regimen that does not include an integrase strand transfer inhibitor.
At CROI, additional data was presented demonstrating noninferiority and a similar safety profile at week 48 versus the 3 drug, INSTI-based regimen, Biktarvy, in adults who had not previously received antiretroviral treatment. In addition, IDVYNSO was shown to maintain virologic suppression at week 96 in adults who switched some other oral antiretroviral therapies, including Biktarvy.
Islatravir, a potent long-acting antiviral that forms an anchor for additional regimen is currently being evaluated in late-phase trials as a once-weekly combination with Gilead s lenacapavir, an HIV capsid inhibitor, and separately in combination with ulonivirine, an internally developed non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor. We plan to present data from our HIV pipeline at an upcoming medical meeting.
Next to RSV. In February, positive new data were presented for ENFLONSIA for the prevention of RSV lower respiratory tract disease in infants and children under 2 years of age at increased risk for severe disease over 2 seasons from the Phase III SMART study. These findings will be shared with global regulatory authorities with the intent to obtain an expanded indication.
RSV is a leading cause of infant hospitalization globally and is especially serious for children under 2 years of age at high risk for severe disease. These data provide additional evidence for ENFLONSIA for the prevention of RSV in younger children who remain at risk entering their second season.
Earlier this month, the European Commission approved ENFLONSIA for the prevention of RSV lower respiratory tract disease in newborns and infants during their first season, based on the Phase IIb/III CLEVER and Phase III SMART trial.
Next, in ophthalmology. We remain focused on retinal diseases associated with vascular leakage and neovascularization, with emphasis on improving structural and functional outcomes for patients and helping reduce the burden of certain retinal diseases. This month, we initiated 2 pivotal Phase IIb/III trials evaluating MK-8748, an investigational bispecific Tie-2 agonist/VEGF inhibitor for the treatment of neovascular age-related macular degeneration. The MALBEC and TORRONTES studies are the first trials in a broader late-phase development program for MK-8748. The decision to advance development is based on promising results from the Phase I/IIa RIOJA trial.
In closing, we anticipate multiple events and milestones across therapeutic areas in the coming months, including, in oncology, please mark your calendars for our annual investor event at the ASCO Annual Meeting in Chicago on the evening of Monday, June 1, where we will outline progress on our oncology pipeline and strategy. On the regulatory front, as noted, potential approvals for KEYTRUDA plus Padcev in MIBC, WELIREG in expanded RCC settings and for I-DXd in extensive stage small cell lung cancer.
In HIV, data from the Phase III ISLEND-1 and 2 trials evaluating islatravir and lenacapavir, a once-weekly oral 2-drug treatment regimen in collaboration with Gilead.
In cardiometabolic and respiratory, the September 21 PDUFA date for WINREVAIR for the label update based on the Phase III HYPERION study and the Commissioner's National priority Voucher Process for enlicitide is progressing.
In immunology, data for tulisokibart, our TL1A inhibitor, based on the Phase III ATLAS-UC trial in ulcerative colitis and Phase II ATHENA study in SSc-ILD.
Finally, in ophthalmology data from the Phase III BRUNELLO study of MK-3000, our novel Wnt agonist, being evaluated in patients with diabetic macular edema and the Phase II portion of the RIOJA study of MK-8748 being evaluated for the treatment of patients with certain retinal diseases.
I look forward to providing further updates throughout the year. And now I will turn the call back to Peter.
Thanks, Dean. Julie, we're ready to start the Q&A now. We'd appreciate if analysts would limit themselves to a single question today so we can conclude the call at the top of the hour. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Carter Gould with Cantor.
2. Question Answer
Maybe we'll start on the pipeline on MK-3000. How are you thinking ultimately about dosing the 1-year BRUNELLO data is likely not going to inform much on duration interval and the Lucentis comparison is going to leave lots of questions unresolved. I fully appreciate that 40% have suboptimal responses to VEGF, but can this reach your targets if it ultimately requires every 4-week dosing? Or put differently, are there reasons you have conviction about every week or every 12-week dosing?
Thank you very much. So just stepping back, MK-3000 is our potential first-in-class novel candidate targeting Wnt pathway. -- for retinal vascular disease. Almost all the other mechanisms are based on VEGF. And as you've highlighted, up to 40% have suboptimal response to VEGF.
In terms of dosing, frequency, when one sort of does these trials once start at every 24 weeks and upon doing that, then you go further from that. So we believe that one should focus on Q4 weeks, but one should not only focus on Q4 weeks. So your question, which I think alludes to, are we considering other frequencies, the answer is absolutely yes. But the initial focus is on 4 weeks because that is very important to get into the label.
I just want to also highlight really quickly that it's not just MK-3000, it's MK-8748, which is the novel bispecific directly agonizing Tie-2 that we're also excited about, and that as well is advancing in Phase IIb/III trials in retinal vascular disease.
Our next question comes from Jason Gerberry with Bank of America.
Had an update or a question on the WELIREG clinical update on LITESPARK-012 recently provided. And I wanted to get your sense, does this provide any concerning read-through to some of the ongoing readouts for LITESPARK-022 and the ability to see OS benefit there? And also, you have another frontline study with WELIREG, albeit in a post-PD-1 setting. So just kind of curious if you can speak to some of the read-throughs to some of the ongoing trials.
We were having a hard time hearing you, Jason. Let me restate the question. And then I think I'll get it. I think what you're asking, given the LITESPARK-12 outcome, how does that make us think about getting OS in some of the upcoming LITESPARK studies and what's our overall view as it relates to WELIREG. I think that's the way I was trying to ask.
Thanks because I could not hear quite well. In relationship to the other ones like LITESPARK-022, LITESPARK-011, which have PDUFA date in June and October. I think we're very bullish in relationship to how those will turn out. And also in relationship to the question that you have of how -- what's the readout of this trial that had 3 agents involved, which is a PD-1, VEGF TKI and a HIF-2-alpha, I think we are studying that data, but I would be very cautious to sit there and say that has any negative implication to other trials where, for example, we have a VEGF TKI and WELIREG or a PD-1 and WELIREG.
Our next question comes from Michael Yee with UBS Securities.
As we think about coming up to ASCO, where you will obviously have your SAC PMT featured in lung cancer, of course, obviously, PD-1 VEGF also featured in a plenary as well from a competitor, how are you thinking about the dynamic of a sac-TMT in the context of PD-1 VEGFs and your own Lenova asset and perhaps accelerating that? And maybe just give us a snapshot being as to where we stand on these 2 types of programs.
Yes. So I'll answer the question too individually, but I will also answer what I think you're alluding to is the possibility of combinations of that. So in relationship to the PD-1 VEGF, we're very interested in the space. We shared some encouraging early data at AACR. And our construct of the leading PD-1 VEGF is most similar to ours. And so we're looking at our own data. But to be frank, we're also looking at the broader field as well. And so we're eager to move PD-1 VEGF Ford in our trials.
And one of the issues that we think in our hands, a PD-1 VEGF, if it should be better than KEYTRUDA, we have a plethora of agents that would benefit from a combination with either KEYTRUDA or a KEYTRUDA plus or a PD-1 VEGF. So we're advancing that.
In relationship to sac-TMT, I believe that at the ASCO, our strong partner and collaborator Kelen will provide optotroplung-05 in first-line non-small cell lung cancer. And I think people will look at that data very carefully because it may reflect on our global trials, which are not just within China but throughout the globe.
In relationship to the question that you said is, is there any possibility of thinking about combining those to -- the answer is absolutely yes. And we're developing the information and also taking a scan to the outside world as to where and when to best combine a PD-1 VEGF with the rest of our portfolio.
Our next question comes from Asad Haier with Goldman Sachs.
Congrats on all the progress. Maybe just a high-level one back to BD, you've been fairly active across a number of different areas, and you're saying you're ready to pursue additional transactions. So just level set us on where you still see the biggest gaps in your portfolio that could benefit from more BD as you scan the therapeutic landscape? What's the sweet spot now in terms of deal size? And is there a point at which the BD lever starts to diminish in importance just given your growing confidence in the growth trajectory out of the mid part of the next decade with the portfolio transformation that's already underway?
Yes. Asad, I appreciate the question. I would just start by saying we are very confident in the assets we have, the new assets we bought in through business development as well as the continuing progress we're making with our pipeline. So that continues and that grows. That said, we also continue to focus on business development. And as we've said in the past, we don't necessarily target specific therapeutic areas as the first question we ask. We always ask the first question, which is where do we see a significant unmet scientific opportunity where the science is compelling and can address.
And in doing that, that allows us to think about where to focus. So we start with the science. We then asked the question, how does it fit strategically and then move to the value question and where we see science and value in line we move. So that has not changed. Our approach remains to be that as our focus.
From a size perspective, we continue to look anywhere in the $1 billion to $15 billion range with that kind of being the sweet spot. But as we've consistently said, we have the capacity to go beyond that for the right strategic deal. And we will, if and when we see that. So that is where we're looking as far as the therapeutic areas where we do continue to see interesting science, obviously, oncology continues to be an area where there's a lot going on. We continue to look.
Immunology is an area where we continue to see interesting opportunities as well as cardiometabolic is probably the 3 most likely areas, but we are willing to be opportunistic beyond that as well.
And I guess, Peter, did remind me one part. When will we have less urgency to do a deal. My view is we can always do better. We can always grow stronger. And if we have the capacity, we will continue to invest. As Dean has said, we think in terms of one pipeline, whether it's internal or external. And so that mix of internal plus external will be an ongoing part of our strategy, you will not see that change.
Our next question comes from Vamil Divan with Guggenheim Securities.
I just had going back to Win Revere. I appreciate your comments about the cadence data in ACC. Just curious if you could provide any updated thoughts on how the discussions with the FDA are going on moving forward the Phase II program there, you remain confident on the clinical listening being can be the primary endpoint of the Phase III? And then just maybe any sort of rough estimate on how long you think you would actually take to execute a Phase III program in this indication.
Yes. Thank you very much. So in relationship to Wind River, I mean it's reshaping the standard of care in PAH. And now the question is whether or not we can move it to a different segment of pulmonary hypertension, those people with heart disease. The patient population that we pick is a relatively small patient population of those patients who have pulmonary hypertension and heart disease. But it's probably one of the biggest unmet needs that I know of in this patient population, who at least the way that I would describe it is a very different patient population than that of PAH. And one could actually say is more complicated, is older and has more comorbidity.
We think that the cadence gives that proof of concept -- as I had said previously, it's fine to talk about the primary end point reductions in PVR. But at least for me, in this patient population, it will be very important to have the endpoints that allow someone and when I mean someone, I mean patients, providers and payers to really see a compelling conglomerate of endpoints in the time to clinical worsening. And -- and that's where we will be having our discussions with the FDA.
I think the other one that will be important is defining the inclusion criteria in relationship with the FDA and also the broader community in relationship to how do you actually operationalize the clinical trial, but also for everyone to be very clear that in our minds, this is a patient population that is an orphan patient population.
Our next question comes from Daina Graybosch with Leerink.
Yes. I want to go back to ASCO and the data we're going to see from Kalon on OptiTROP-Breast05. That's a China study. And I wonder what should we keep in mind as we look at those outcomes on how it could or could not translate globally any differences in what you're doing globally? Or any other things to keep in mind.
Yes. Thank you very much for that question. So just stepping up at a higher level, we think sac-TMT, it is a coke to ADC, but we think that it has some important differentiation. And we believe that the sac-TMT has a potential to be I think Elliot has often said a cornerstone and Margaria said a workhorse ADC. And we have 17 Phase III studies, 13 are in first movers. We have an in blast, non-small cell lung cancer, gyn, gastric and bladder.
When we do our trials and when we speak to our close partner, Kalon, we use the fact that they are, in some sense, doing signal finding in registrational trials in China. And we recognize China is different, but these are important data for us.
In relationship to the exact details of the sac-TMT and the Kian, I would just remind you that the OptiTROP-Breast05, they will have data. But I think it's very important to sit there and go, if -- how one thinks through that in terms of how that would read out. We are following their data very much. But I think that we are guided we are guided by the results. I do want to emphasize that in their OptiTROP, it's sac-TMT plus KEYTRUDA versus KEYTRUDA in PD-L1 positive first-line non-small cell lung cancer. And it's very important that if one wants to do an ADC plus KEYTRUDA versus KEYTRUDA in the United States, ex China, one has to look at where a PD-1 and what's the range with which the PD-L1 cut-off is.
And so for us, this is the first Phase III combination study of sac-TMT and KEYTRUDA to read out. We have 50% of our Trou studies are evaluating KEYTRUDA combos in our TrophUse-007, our global study at ACTMTand KEYTRUDA versus KEYTRUDA in TPS greater than 50% in first-line non-small cell lung cancer. And I emphasize that simply because in the United States and ex China, TPS greater than 50% is where KEYTRUDA has an indication.
Our next question comes from Steve Scala with TD Cowen.
What are the gating factors for FDA acceptance of the enlicotide application? And Dean, can you speak to the changes that you're pursuing on titration? What shorter durations are you pursuing? And is the 15 minutes you spoke to previously before or after administration of the drug?
Yes. So I would just say that the enlicitide, as we've said out is we want to have the first and best-in-class potent oral PCSK9. It's designed in a very similar manner to antibody. And the data from the Phase III as a as we have discussed, I think lay out the value statement and relationship to its potency in terms of all the important by proteins. In relationship to the CNPV, the issue in relationship with the CNP is just for all of us to understand that the NPD process is a little bit different, which is we -- it's almost like a rolling submission, sort of way to think about it.
And through that rolling ambition, at the end of that sort of rolling submission, that's when the FDA sits there and gives you a letter and a PDUFA date. And so we are actively in those discussions with the FDA. And then as we normally do when we get formal acceptance of the complete file, which is a little bit different in the CMPB we'll make an announcement. I will emphasize that in our discussion with the FDA, -- what is very important to them is us really showing them that the CMPD program is important that we're addressing an important U.S. public health crisis that we're delivering innovative cures and we're increasing domestic drug manufacturer and supply chain resilient. So those are all important to the FDA, and we are in really good conversations with them.
And so I think that is going quite well, and it's progressing well. I would imagine that our estimation that we could get an approval at the second half of this year I see no reason to doubt that at this moment in time. In relationship to what you said in relationship to this issue of how you would take it -- we're also in the discussion with the FDA as to what the exact label is in relationship to how they will talk about prescriptions and when to take it and how to take it. And I don't want to get ahead of that conversation because those are extremely active conversations as we speak.
Our next question comes from Chris Schott with JPMorgan.
I just wanted to touch base on TL1A I think this one's got maybe a little bit less attention than some of your other late-stage readouts this year. But can you just talk a little bit about the role you're seeing TL1A playing in the IBD space? And maybe more broadly, when we think about immunology and IBD, there does seem to be more discussions about combination therapy as maybe the next step for the market. I'm just interested in Merck's approach here kind of building on the TL1A as I think about a broader pipeline?
Yes. So I would begin to say that throughout the immunology sort of field, there are certain nodes that are really important 23 is an important note. TNF is an important note. And that's how the field is set up. We wonder whether TL1A is such a node and that -- and our hope is to laSocobar could be 1 of the first and best-in-class TO1As. So that's in that sort of framework.
The other thing that you've just said, I think is really important is that there is increasing interest in combining different these nodes. This is something that was tried 10, 15, 20 years ago, and it didn't turn out well. But now the data suggests that in certain cases, you could begin to combine. When you look at the AE profile of tubasocopart, it's if you take the Phase II data, not just our Phase II data, but across the Phase II data. It is a member of the TNF superfamily, but from an AE profile, I might describe it as a kinder gentler AE profile than other NOTO-TNFs and with profound efficacy.
So I think combinations will be employing. -- in relationship to what we hope to see in relationship to Phase III ulcerative colitis and chronic and Crohn's disease, we have readouts coming out we hope to be first mover, but I also want to emphasize that we also think that TL1A may be also distinguished not just to be an important note, but it may be important for not just inflammation or dampening but also for fibrosis. And we have Phase II data in SSC ILD and in HS that's coming in 2026. And that hopefully will define the unique role or the unique position that T1 has with all the other major notes.
Our next question comes from Louise Chen with Scotiabank.
I wanted to ask you about the CADENCE study. There was some debate on the results that you recently presented at a medical meeting. And I'm wondering what you think the Street may be missing about the competitiveness of your product.
So I'm not sure I know everything that you're referencing. In terms of the competitiveness of our product, I don't know how else to answer it is, I don't know from a competitive standpoint that there's any treatment for this patient population. And when I look out, I'm not so sure that I see something that, that will break that barrier. In terms of whether or not you can make a Phase III, but sort of models what happens in the Phase II. I think that's where the focus is.
And that's been the focus in our conversations with KOLs, but also the FDA. And there is a clear understanding that this patient population, this patient population is 1 with a tremendous unmet need. And so I don't know that I would call it competitive sort of dynamic sort of thing. It's whether someone for the first time can have a compelling treatment for a patient population that is in dire need.
Our next question comes from Omar Raffat with Evercore.
I wanted to touch up on some incremental information that came out on your turns deal, which I don't think we discussed on the call you as did earlier. And by my math, it looks like the incremental patients may have had an MMR achievement rate of something like 2 out of 10 or something along those lines. Could you just speak to the -- that drop and how does that change or not change your overall thoughts about the drug's profile? Because presumably, that's like the real target population early in the launch?
Yes. Thank you so much for that. So I would just say that in this -- in CML, there's multiple approved therapies, and it appears that there is significant unmet need. And the value proposition for us for turns to 101 is whether or not it has the potential to be a best-in-class Alister TKI with high selectivity and improved therapeutic index. When data is presented at some of these meetings initially when they're early, Oftentimes, they're stated in 1 way. But for us, it's really important to always look at that data, whether it's especially when you go to ASCO, AACR or ASH, we look at it immediately in the eyes of how do you think in terms of registration.
And it's very important to translate whatever the abstract says to, what I would say, a more conservative ITT population consistent with regulatory standards. Given that, what was laid out at these public congresses is turn stated to 75% MMR and 36% DMR achievement rate. As the data evolved and we were looking at very specific patient-level data we believe that the MMR will be north of 50%. And within the confidence interval as had been publicly stated. And we think that in MMR in that sort of range is extremely compelling.
And then the other point that I would just highlight is we also think that the DMR rate is also very interesting to look at and whether or not this drug could not only create a best-in-class in relationship to MMR, but whether it could catalyze the field to increasingly think of DMR as a treatment goal.
Our next question comes from James Shin with Deutsche Bank.
Dean, have a question. Can you help us distinguish MK-6837 from sac-TMT? And then just going back to the TL1A question, is there a view within Merck that TL1A could stand alone in immunology because from a market or commercial perspective, immunogy seems to be very much a portfolio-driven strategy. Some of your peers have large portfolios, and there's a very competitive remote that's built with that?
Okay. So let me ask -- let me tackle the immunology question really clearly. We're very focused on TL1A, but if you ask me is TL1A is our ambition to stop at TL1A, -- would we use TL1A as a beach at to expand and extend. The answer is we would undoubtedly move it to expand and to extend -- we had expanded from IBD to other conditions, and we would advance it to conditions where the combination of immunofibrosis would be really important.
In relationship to other molecules, of course, if one had a leading TL1A that could advance through the series of different indications that we have, then in each 1 of those indications, you would immediately think of what's the combinatorial partner whether it be in IBD or HS or in SSC IOD. So we would immediately think about doing that as well. So we are focused on TL1A, but that focus does not create a situation where we're not thinking about not just whether we can be first and best, but what's next as well. And I think the other question was related to MK-6837. Is that correct?
I didn't catch the other one. MK-6837 is another ADC, which had a unique payload, and we have discontinued that especially when you see the profound impact of sac-TMT and also in relationship to -- we've always said that we're very interested in the ADC field in changing the target but also changing the payload and thinking about combinatory or cycling different payloads as the field moves on in the antibody drug conjugate.
Maybe I could just add 1 little bit as a teaser, maybe to what you'll see as we go into next year and beyond. In our invisible pipeline we often refer to we have other assets in the immunology space that you're not seeing right now. So just to reinforce Dean's point, we aren't just a TL1A company. We have other things in development beyond that. And as we move forward in time, you'll start to get a better sense of that as we unleash that as it moves into Phase I.
All right. Thanks, James. We'll squeeze one last question in before we end the call.
Our last question comes from Geoff Meacham with Citibank.
All right. Dean, in HIV, just given the recent approval of Avito, can you talk about how you guys see the competitive setup and related, I know you have prep coming up, but how much of a strategic priority is HIV and infectious disease when thinking about the overall BD strategy.
So in terms of our interest in HIV, there is a profound interest in really in our HIV program. And for those of you who've talked to Eliot Bar, the Chief Medical Officer, I think you can feel that just in his presence. Islatravir is a next-generation nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor. It blocks translocation, and we have the daily program -- and increasingly, there is interest in going from a 3-drug daily program to a 2 drug.
And of the 2 drug daily programs, I think we're the only ones without an entity backbone. So I think that's very important. -- critically also important is that we believe ezlotivir can anchor to weekly, and you see it in later lenacapavir, which is a 2-drug combo, which hopefully will be the first Q week and then loci with UL, which is in development, and there will be data being presented, I think, in due course, it could be the smallest pill could be favorable DDI profile and be extremely effective.
And then as you said, to me, the monthly, if you could have 12 pills and protect people with MK 852 I think that would just be such an important contribution as a commercial product, but also as a global product for public health throughout the world. So if the question is, are we committed? And are we passionate about our HIV program? I hope that you heard from the tenor of my response, the answer is unequivocally yes.
Great. Thanks, Geoff, and thanks, everybody. Apologies for going over a few minutes. Give us a call if you have any follow-up questions. Thank you.
Thank you for your participation. Participants, you may disconnect at this time.
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Merck & Co. — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Merck & Co. — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Solide organisches Wachstum und angehobene Guidance, aber ein großer Einmalaufwand dämpft das Ergebnis; Pipeline‑Katalysatoren dominieren die Story.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: $16,3 Mrd. (+5% YoY; +3% ex FX)
- KEYTRUDA: $8,0 Mrd. (+8%), erster Treiber des Wachstums (inkl. $250M durch zeitliche Einkaufsverschiebungen)
- GARDASIL: $1,1 Mrd. (−22%, China/Japan schwächer; USA −10% wegen CDC‑Timing)
- Brutto‑Marge: 81,9% (−0,3 PP)
- Ergebnis/AK: GAAP‑Verlust $1,28 je Aktie (inkl. −$3,62/Aktie wegen einmaliger Cidara‑Aufwendung)
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Portfolio: Transformation hin zu >20 Produktneueinführungen mit Blockbuster‑Potenzial; Management sieht kumulative Chance >$70 Mrd. bis Mitte 2030er.
- Organisation: Neue Business‑Unit‑Struktur nach Therapiegebieten mit Führungswechseln zur Schärfung der kommerziellen Verantwortung.
- Technologie & BD: Multiyear‑AI‑Partnerschaften (Google Cloud, Tempus, Mayo) und akquisitionsgetriebene Ergänzung der Pipeline (z.B. Terns) als Kernelemente der Wachstumsstrategie.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Umsatz‑Guidance: $65,8–67,0 Mrd. für 2026 (+1–3%; ~+1 PP FX‑Effekt)
- EPS‑Guidance: $5,04–5,16 (enthält ~+$0,10 FX); Bruttomarge ≈82%, OpEx $36,0–36,8 Mrd.
- Transaktionen: Guidance exkl. vorgeschlagener Terns‑Akquisition; Terns erwartet Einmal‑R&D‑Aufwand ≈$5,8 Mrd. (~$2,35/Aktie) plus ~−$0,12 EPS Finanzierungskosten 2026.
- Risiken: KEYTRUDA‑Bestandstiming (Gegenwind Q3), ENFLONSIA‑Saisonalität (minimaler Q2‑Absatz), erhöhte SG&A‑Investitionen H2.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Ophthalmologie: MK‑3000 vs. Lucentis—Management fokussiert initial auf 4‑Wochen‑Dosis fürs Label, offen für andere Intervalle; MK‑8748 parallel in Phase IIb/III.
- WELIREG: Negatives LITESPARK‑012‑Resultat löste Fragen aus; Management betont, dass LITESPARK‑022/011 (PDUFA 19.06. bzw. 04.10.) anders konzipiert sind und optimistisch interpretiert werden sollten.
- Business Development: TERN‑701: Management korrigierte MMR‑Erwartung auf „nördlich von 50%“; begründet Transaktion mit möglichem multibillionärem Markt und weiterem Investitionsbedarf.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Kerngeschäft wächst und die Jahres‑Guidance wurde nach oben geschoben, doch große einmalige Aufwendungen (Cidara; erwartete Terns‑Last) und Timing‑Effekte schaffen kurzfristige Ergebnis‑Volatilität. Anleger sollten near‑term auf Zulassungs‑/PDUFA‑Termine, Terns‑Schluss und KEYTRUDA‑Inventarfluktuationen achten.
Merck & Co. — Merck & Co., Inc., Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - M&A Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Merck & Company Inc. Rahway New Jersey USA Investor Event announcing the acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals.
[Operator Instructions]
This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Peter Dannenbaum, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Thank you, Amanda. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Merck's investor call highlighting the announced acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals. Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that some of the statements that we make today may be considered forward-looking statements. Such statements are made based on the current beliefs of our company's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. If our underlying assumptions prove inaccurate or uncertainties materialize, actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.
Our SEC filings, including Item 1A in the 2025 10-K as well as Tern's SEC filings identify certain risk factors and cautionary statements that could cause ours or Tern's actual results to differ materially from those projected in any of our forward-looking statements made this morning. Merck & Company Inc., Rahway, New Jersey USA. undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements. During today's call, a slide presentation will accompany our speakers' prepared remarks. These slides and our SEC filings are posted to the Investor Relations section of our company's website.
Our speakers this morning include Rob Davis, Merck's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Dr. Dean Li, President of Merck Research Laboratories, Jannie Oosthuizen, Executive Vice President and President, Oncology and MSD International; and Caroline Litchfield, Chief Financial Officer.
With that, I will turn the call over to Rob.
Great. Thanks, Peter. Good morning, everyone. The ongoing successful execution of our science-led strategy is enabling us to positively impact patients and drive sustainable growth over the long term. We are transforming our company with launches underway for more than 20 anticipated new growth drivers, almost all of which have blockbuster potential and together represent a combined non-risk-adjusted potential commercial opportunity of over $70 billion by the mid-2030s. Innovation-driven value-enhancing business development is an important element of our strategy to expand and diversify our pipeline across a broad set of therapeutic areas, including oncology.
Today, we're excited to announce our proposed acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals. Its lead candidate, TERN-701, is a potent, orally available next-generation allosteric tyrosine kinase inhibitor being studied in certain patients with chronic myeloid leukemia or CML. We believe TERN-701 has the potential to be a best-in-class therapy, driven by high selectivity and an improved therapeutic index that could lead to efficacy advantages versus currently approved TKI agents. Patients with CML often remain on therapy for many years. And while significant advances have been made, there remains opportunity to further improve disease control and treatment outcomes.
In addition, challenges with today's treatments related to durability and tolerability lead to frequent switching. TERN-701 is designed to address these unmet needs and provide an important potential new option for patients. Given the size of the addressable population and the remaining unmet medical need, we believe TERN-701 has multibillion-dollar commercial potential and will be a significant driver of growth in the next decade.
This acquisition builds upon our deep expertise in oncology and strengthens and complements our growing hematology pipeline, which has significant future commercial potential as part of the oncology business unit under Jannie's leadership. More broadly, this transaction reflects our commitment to acting decisively when compelling science and value align and our confidence in the benefits TERN-701 will bring to patients while generating value for our shareholders over time. We're eager to welcome the talented Terns team to Merck and look forward to the contributions they will make as part of our organization.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Dean.
Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Our company has made remarkable progress in treating cancer, most notably solid tumors, but there is more work to be done. As we have advanced our oncology strategy and diversified our clinical pipeline, hematology has become a particular area of opportunity and interest. The acquisition of Terns provides our company with an opportunity to further investigate the potential of TERN-701 for certain patients with CML. CML is a slow-growing cancer derived from the bone marrow's blood forming stem cells and is characterized by a distinct translocation between chromosomes 9 and 22 known as the Philadelphia chromosome.
Historically, due to limited treatment options, the diagnosis of CML was almost universally fatal. The advent of tyrosine kinase inhibitors fundamentally transformed the treatment landscape and significantly improved outcomes for patients. Today, CML is generally managed as a chronic condition with many patients remaining on therapy for extended periods of time, often for many years. However, long-term exposure to existing therapies is associated with increased risk of relapse due to the emergence of resistant driver mutations, primarily in the kinase domain or active site of the [ BCR::ABL ] protein.
Similarly, while adverse events tend to appear in the first few months, the cumulative risk of developing intolerance to one or more TKI therapies increases with the duration of treatment and the number of lines of therapy. As many as 40% of patients treated with active site TKIs switch therapies within 5 years. In the second line and later settings, the majority of people with CML do not achieve a deep molecular response. So despite multiple available treatments, there remains significant need for further options.
The focus of development has therefore evolved with enhanced emphasis on increasing the depth of response and overall disease control while improving long-term efficacy, safety, tolerability and overall quality of life. TERN-701 is a potent, selective, oral next-generation allosteric BCR::ABL tyrosine kinase inhibitor. Unlike traditional active site competitive TKIs, TERN-701 is designed to specifically target a distinct site on the ABL protein that controls kinase activity, thereby overcoming mutations that occur in the kinase active site.
This differentiated mechanism is designed to inhibit the oncogenic driver while minimizing off-target effects. The high degree of target selectivity observed with TERN-701 supports the potential for higher dosing with more complete inhibition and an improved therapeutic index. TERN-701 has demonstrated preclinical activity against multiple resistance mutations, further supporting its continued evaluation across different lines of therapy.
In the ongoing Phase I/II CARDINAL study, TERN-701 has demonstrated promising activity in patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive CML previously treated with at least 1 TKI with encouraging rates of major molecular responses and deep molecular responses observed by week 24, key measures of the reduction of BCR::ABL cancer cells. Importantly, these responses were achieved in a previously treated patient population with high disease burden, including those previously treated with multiple TKIs and even those who had previously relapsed while receiving Asciminib, the only allosteric TKI approved for treatment of CML.
We reviewed the totality of data for TERN-701 and estimate that the final MMR achievement using a more conservative intent-to-treat population would be approximately double the MMR and double to triple the DMR achievement of approved TKIs, including Asciminib. Based on this analysis, TERN-701 has the potential to be a best-in-class therapy for certain patients with CML. Furthermore, TERN-701 has also shown a faster kinetic response to achieving MMR and DMR than approved treatments, providing additional support for its potential best-in-class profile.
Safety is a critical consideration in CML given the long-term nature of treatment. To date, no dose-limiting toxicities have been observed for TERN-701 and the majority of treatment-emergent adverse events reported have been low grade. Furthermore, the overall safety and tolerability profile appears favorable with a low incidence of serious adverse events based on data available to date. Dose expansion is ongoing to further characterize the safety profile and inform optimal Phase III dose selection.
Looking ahead, we see an opportunity to apply our global clinical development capabilities to evaluate the potential of TERN-701. We intend to design a rigorous and appropriately powered clinical program that addresses both frontline and later-line treatment settings in CML. As with all of our programs, our focus will be on generating high-quality data that clearly characterizes TERN-701's benefit risk profile and supports its potential role in the treatment landscape. TERN-701 further augments and complements our growing and innovative hematology pipeline, spanning multiple modalities and disease areas.
In addition to our existing approval for KEYTRUDA, we have a series of pivotal readouts from a pipeline of innovative hematology candidates within the next couple of years, including Nemtabrutinib, our non-covalent BTK inhibitor, Bomedemstat, our LSD1 inhibitor and Zilovertamab vedotin, our ROR1 targeting ADC. As well as MK-1045, our CD19xCD3 T-cell engager, which is being evaluated in a Phase I/II study.
We believe TERN-701 provides a strong strategic fit within our broader hematology ambitions and reinforces our commitment to science-driven innovation with the goal of making a meaningful difference for patients over the long term. Finally, I'd like to reiterate Rob's comments and convey my admiration and respect to the Terns team for their remarkable achievements in discovering TERN-701 and advancing the science in this important disease area.
With that, I will turn the call over to Jannie.
Thank you, Dean. As both Rob and Dean highlighted, we are committed to advancing the science in hematology and an area of significant clinical need and opportunity to positively impact patients. Given our expanding pipeline, we are well positioned to launch several innovative therapies in the coming years. And so I am excited to add TERN-701 to our portfolio, and I'm confident in its potential to deliver meaningful benefit for patients. CML is a chronic disease that often requires long term and in many cases, lifelong treatment. As outcomes have improved, patients are living longer, which has contributed to the increasing prevalence of the disease over time.
Across the U.S., key European markets and Japan, there are estimated to be 18,000 new patients diagnosed with CML each year. As the treated population grows, factors such as tolerability and adherence have become increasingly important. Despite multiple approved treatment options, unmet need remains, particularly in the context of long-term duration. TERN-701 has the potential to be the best-in-class treatment for certain patients with CML. And as Dean noted, it will be complementary to our current hematology portfolio where we expect a cadence of launches over the next several years.
Given the substantial unmet need for additional options for certain patients with CML and the significant potential benefits of TERN-701, we believe it has multibillion-dollar revenue potential and can be a meaningful driver of growth beginning in the early 2030s and continuing through the next decade.
With that, I will turn the call over to Caroline.
Thank you, Jannie. Turning to the financial details of the transaction. We are confident that TERN-701 can be a meaningful driver of growth in the next decade, and this transaction has the potential to create significant value for shareholders. Merck has agreed to acquire all outstanding shares of Terns Pharmaceuticals for $53 per share, representing a total equity value of approximately $6.7 billion or approximately $5.7 billion net of acquired cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities.
We intend to finance the transaction primarily through new debt, and we do not expect an impact to our credit rating. The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to the tender of a majority of Tern's outstanding shares as well as regulatory approvals. We expect the transaction to be accounted for as an asset acquisition.
As a result, we expect a charge to research and development expense in 2026 of approximately $5.8 billion or approximately $2.35 per share. In addition, we expect a negative impact to EPS of approximately $0.17 in the first 12 months, which represents investment to advance the development of TERN-701 and the assumed cost of financing. The impact of these charges will be reflected in both our GAAP and non-GAAP results. Our balanced approach to capital allocation remains unchanged. Business development continues to be an important priority. We remain committed to a strong investment-grade credit rating while preserving capacity within it to pursue additional value-enhancing transactions.
In summary, the success we are having in advancing and augmenting our pipeline, including through science-led business development, such as the planned acquisition of Tern, increases our confidence in our ability to deliver important innovation to patients and sustain our long-term growth while providing value to shareholders. I will now turn the call back to Peter.
Thank you, Caroline. Amanda, we're now ready to begin Q&A. I just want to let everyone know that in the room with us is Dr. Marjorie Green, Senior Vice President and Head of Oncology Global Clinical Development.
[Operator Instructions]
Our first question comes from Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.
2. Question Answer
Congrats on the deal. I really want to kind of get into the nitty gritty. In your diligence, can you explain why TERN-701's allosteric inhibition may be more optimal than other active site TKIs in CML.
So this is Dean. I'll just make some really quick comments, and I'll hand it back to Marjorie. So you're asking whether or not inhibitors of an allosteric why they are potentially superior than those who are orthosteric, which is the active site. I think the data from Asciminib suggests that there are advantages of an allosteric site over an active site or an orthosteric tyrosine kinase. That sort of had been played out. In relationship to turns, we believe that this allosteric inhibitor could even have more superior efficacy in relationship to the TKIs at our active site and also potentially in a basket in relationship to those who are also on allosteric. But Marjorie, is there anything you wanted to add?
Yes. No, thanks, Dean. Part of the interest, I think, has to do with mechanisms of resistance that occur over time. And it does appear that for the different classes of TKIs, there are different mechanisms of resistance. And it is potentially possible that by using different allosteric, you're able to overcome resistance that could exist with some of the first and second-generation TKIs.
Our next question comes from Alex Hammond with Wolfe Research.
On safety, Turns noted that there was no symptomatic lipase elevation. Should we interpret this as there were asymptomatic elevation? And if so, is there any concern in larger clinical trials that you could see symptomatic elevations? And I guess as a follow-up, what's your appetite for continued BD and any additional therapeutic areas of interest?
So why don't -- I'll have Marjorie take the first question, and then I'll answer the second question about continued interest in business development.
Yes. Thanks for the question. Regarding the lipase elevations, Terns has publicly disclosed and data that we have confirmed that rates of lipase elevation are present, but they are low grade and in their nature, the majority of adverse effects that occur with these kind of PKIs, you will see signals within the first 6 months of exposure for majority of AEs. And so I think, again, what they are showing are consistent with the class low-grade lipase elevations.
Thank you, Marjorie. And then as it relates to business development, to be clear, hopefully, what you see here is a transaction that very much fits into what has been our ongoing business development strategy, which, as you know, and we've communicated pretty consistently always starts with the question, do we see a significant unmet need where there is innovative science that can address it? And then we ask, how does it fit within the strategic portfolio that we have?
And then finally, do we see an opportunity for compelling value creation. And in this case, we hit all of those factors. As we look forward, our interest continues to be to add more to the portfolio while we are very excited about what we have, and I give all the credit in the world to Dean and our scientific team for what we've been able already to achieve as represented in the potential $70 billion plus. And remember, that's only from a select set of assets, not from our entire portfolio. We feel very good about where we are, but I always believe you can do more.
And in that spirit, we will in a disciplined way, continue to look for opportunities. I'm excited that we can add to our position in oncology here, both in terms of putting ourselves in a position to continue to be a leader in oncology, but also to diversify within the oncology space and add to our hematology portfolio. Beyond that, we continue to be interested in other therapeutic areas. and it should not be a surprise. Immunology continues to be an area we often look and are excited about cardiometabolic vaccines, ophthalmology based on some of the recent deals we've done. And then we're always opportunistic, again, starting always with the first question, where is the science pointing us and what do we see as the need? And that is always the driver.
Our next question comes from James Shin with Deutsche Bank.
First question is for either Dean or Marjorie. Appreciate 701's frontline CML trial as against investigator's choice for MMR. Any chance this frontline trial includes testing for noninferiority and possibly superiority to Asciminib? And one for Rob and team. It seems you have line of sight to late line and frontline CML for 701. So how much does this terms deal change the $70 billion peak pipeline figure presented earlier this year?
So this is Dean. One of the things I just want to be a little bit cautious about talking about a potential Phase III development program is Number one, we don't have ownership of this company or the control of the study design. And our intention always is to pursue a robust and appropriately powered program that demonstrates the unambigorous promotable advantage of whatever medicine or vaccines we're advancing. But I would just ask Marjorie is there anything else that you want to add?
No, I agree. We're very excited about the potential of TERN-701 to make a clinically meaningful difference for people with CML, and we will execute a robust, well-developed program should the transaction go through.
And as it relates to the $70 billion plus, you should assume, as we said, with multibillion-dollar plus opportunity, commercial opportunity from this asset, we are growing it. I'll let you determine how much multibillion is.
Our next question comes from Louise Chen with Scotiabank.
Congratulations on the deal. So I wanted to ask you if you could elucidate a little bit more how TERN-701 would fit into the treatment paradigm if it's approved? And then how do you expect it to take share? Would it be new patients or from existing therapies?
So I'll just give a highlight, which is what we've said in the prepared remarks is our calculation based on early data suggests that there's a possibility that this drug, TERN-701 may have around 2x MMR versus approved TKIs and 2 to 3x DMR in approved TKIs and a faster kinetic response than that was treated before and also a very favorable safety and tolerability so that someone could stay on it. So I just think that, that's the scope of how we view the positioning of this scientifically, but I'll hand it over to Jannie for a commercial view of that potential ambition.
Yes. So thank you, Dean. So as we said, we see this to be a multibillion-dollar commercial opportunity. I'm not going to so much talk about the assumption on share. I think the first order of business would be to stand up the development program to really generate the data that is needed to define the differentiation that we're going to have against other options, both from a clinical option point of view, depth of response, durability and tolerability. And we will share more as the Phase III program shapes up, but we think that this could be a meaningful choice in the CML setting.
I might just add, I think the other part of the question, primarily, we see this as new patients coming on therapy and being able to move into that space. That's the way we valued it. Obviously, over time, we will look to see for the opportunities for switch as well. But given the number of new patients that unfortunately continue to become inflicted with CML every year, there's a meaningful opportunity there. Having them stay on therapy chronically allows you to effectively multiply that over time. And then to the extent we drive switch over time, it even goes higher. So all of that is why we're so confident in the multibillion-dollar opportunity.
Our next question comes from Jason Gerberry with Bank of America.
Maybe just a follow-up question just on the commercial point. I guess from your standpoint, which of the, I guess, data variables in future data really is key to having success driving a switch in a market like this? Is it really the safety? Is it the lack of food effect or efficacy differentiation in the head-to-head comparisons? And then just as a follow-up, did you guys describe any value to assets beyond 701 in this deal?
Yes. So let me just take a first stab at things. In relationship to the basic question, at least my simple sort of view is especially in oncology, especially oncology, but in all therapeutic areas. efficacy and showing improved efficacy is a critical component of how we look at our own internal programs and how we look at every other program when we do business development. So it's a common sort of thing. Efficacy is critically important. But with that, I'll hand it over to Jannie.
Yes, absolutely. I will tell you what makes us excited as a commercial organization is if you can have a treatment with double the MMR, 2 to 3x DMR and that faster kinetic response to achieve both MMR and DMR on top of a very tolerable product, I think this will be a significant choice in that first-line setting. So again, as Rob said, there's about 80,000 patients annually across the U.S., Japan and key European markets that is newly diagnosed with CML -- so we see a product with a profile like that capturing a significant number of patients in that first-line setting and could motivate some physicians to switch other patients on to a therapy like this.
And Jason, in terms of the valuation, our valuation is based on TERN-701.
Our next question comes from Michael Yee with UBS.
This is [ Dina ] on for Mike. Thinking about time lines for the pivotal study, I know that Terns had previously said that the second-line study would start first and then the first line or frontline study would be running in parallel, but about 6 to 12 months behind. Is there any way that, that time line can be accelerated, especially for the front line? And how are you thinking about just the path forward from there?
So I'll just take it really quickly. I want to be a little bit thoughtful and careful as to how to answer any questions directly related to clinical trial design and time lines until we are fully in control of Terns. And also, this will also require discussions clearly, whether it's Terns or us with the regulatory agencies. So I don't want to get ahead of that. But there is nothing that Terns has said that we would sit there and we are going with the assumptions of what they have said publicly.
Our next question comes from Geoff Meacham with Citi.
This is Mary Kate on for Geoff. So Terns has mentioned additional data from the CARDINAL trial is to be expected in the second half of this year. I guess just should we expect a similar readout in terms of time lines? And could you maybe walk us through how you're looking at the ongoing clinical trial and what you'd like to see to further bolster your confidence in this program?
I mean I would just emphasize the way that we look at this program is we conduct a comprehensive and rigorous evaluation of all available data. And at that level, we're looking at patient level data and always thinking consistent with regulatory standards for registration. So we're comfortable as we get more data and as people -- more people are treated with this drug and also those who are treated with the drug get more experience, that will inform how we think about future development and the time lines related to that. But Marjorie, is there anything else that you would like to add?
Yes. No, thanks. Terns has done a fantastic job with their development of 701. And I think they've talked about publicly and shown that they've already completed dose escalation are in randomized dose finding. And so we would work with ensuring that, that data is well described and understood and presented in a timely fashion.
Our next question comes from Daina Graybosch with Leerink Partners.
Rob, you talked about the 4 pillars of Merck's BD strategy and one is an opportunity for compelling value creation. And I wonder if you could talk more specifically in this case, why Merck owning this asset is going to create more value for your shareholders.
Well, obviously, one of the strengths we've had over the last several years is the position we've been able to enjoy in oncology. And we've been working hard to expand that. As Dean highlighted, we have multiple assets that we'll be launching in the hematology space over the coming years. This adds to that. We've already been building the commercial capabilities and leveraging, frankly, what we already know from the solid tumor side to leverage over to that. And given the scale we have, both from our clinical programs, which I continue to be proud of what we've done. I think we have the best clinical team in the industry in oncology.
And so the confidence that when we give them an asset that they can bring it through and deliver it clinically, we've shown we can do that consistently. And so that gives me great confidence in our ability to drive this program to success. And then given the scale we have commercially in the marketplace, we will leverage that full network to drive this product. So this is something that builds on where we want to be. As Dean has always said, we started, we were a leader in IO. We are committed to being a leader across broader oncology with a very diversified portfolio of assets, and this adds nicely to that. So I'm very confident in the compelling value this is going to bring for shareholders.
Our next question comes from Mohit Bansal with Wells Fargo Securities.
This is Will Zhang on for Mohit Bansal. Congrats on the deal. So I guess moving over to the first-line setting. So [ Gleevec ] and its generics still have meaningful share in the first line despite [ Scemblix ] being approved and available there. How are you thinking about overcoming this first-mover advantage with TERN-701? And just where do you see opportunity for TERN-701 to take share here?
Yes. So I'll let Jannie talk about the shares and the commercial aspect, but I think it will be important to hear from Marjorie as the person who leads late-stage oncology, why she and her teams are excited about bringing this opportunity to patients with CML.
Yes. Thanks, Dean. There -- you're correct. There are still physicians who are using the first-generation Gleevec. They've gotten used to the management of the side effects and have seen consistent efficacy over a long period of time. However, there remains significant unmet need in CML. And I think that's what drives a change in therapy showing that value. If you look at some of the data sets that people still present, you'll see a reference to MR2, which is what Gleevec was [ pounded ] for was the ability to get a cytogenetic negative test result with the drug.
However, what's becoming more and more apparent is that while the risk of accelerated phase of CML and blast phase has gone down significantly with drugs, it still exists. And so time to getting to that molecular response and depth of molecular response are important prognostic factors and prediction of how people with CML will do for the long term. So having a drug that is tolerable that people who are on for a long period of time can get an individual CML to a very rapid and deep response is very prognostic for their long-term outcomes. And we think that is what will drive the clinical uptake. There is a move to considering for some people treatment-free intervals.
And to do that, you need to have very, very prolonged deep molecular responses and people wait for several years before they even consider that. And so I think that's the value proposition that people see. It's that depth of response and the tolerability that will change therapy.
Yes, I fully agree, it's Jannie. I think as we've seen again and again in oncology, it's the data that really makes the difference. And if we can deliver that improved MMR, but as Marjorie said, the deep molecular response at 2 to 3x plus the tolerability versus current options, we are confident that we will take significant share.
Our next question comes from Umer Raffat with Evercore ISI.
I have 2 here, if I may. First of all, congrats to you guys on the deal. Two, if I may. First, just the fact that we're going into a [indiscernible] binding pocket. I guess my first question would be, have we seen any MMRs in T359 patients because I feel like there's been no conversation on that so far. Secondly, on MMR itself, I feel like any headline number is just -- there's just a lot more to it than the headline itself. So my question instead is there's a 64% MMR in 28 patients. Separately, we know 18 patients at baseline were enrolled because they discontinued because of lack of tolerability. So how much of this 28-patient denominator is driven by lack of tolerability patients rather than lack of efficacy or truly resistant patients?
So I'll turn it over to Marjorie, but I just sort of really want to emphasize that there's probably like maybe 20% to 30% of patients that demonstrate resistance and 70% of those estimated to develop a point mutation in the ABL gene. In relationship to the data that we've had, we've seen patient level data and also remember that there is continuing to be a dose escalation in relationship to the doses with which the patients are being exposed. But I was just going to turn it over to Marjorie, if there's any other considerations that she wanted to bring.
Yes. No, thanks. The Terns are doing a great job at analyzing and evaluating the potential for people with and without different kind of mutations of BCR::ABL. That data has not been publicly presented to my knowledge. And -- but these people are being enrolled into the study to understand the characteristics of TERN-701 further. I think in their public presentation that they did in December, they go through the details of how they calculated the different levels of response.
And so what we did, as Dean said, is we had patient-level data -- and we looked at it through multiple different lenses because the nature of Phase I/II studies is that you get a very heterogeneous population. And so we were able to look at people based upon prior therapies. And as Dean said, a significant number of people enrolled in these studies that had prior assay and lack of efficacy was present in a high number of them rather than intolerance. And so there's a lot of very rich data there. I can't share the full details of the work that we've done, but the study has been open for a long time, and the data that was presented at ASH had a data cut of September. And so what we were able to do is confirm this profound efficacy you hear us all talking about and that it's held up over time.
Our next question comes from Luisa Hector with Berenberg.
Just in terms of the deal valuation, so Caroline said based on TERN-701, could you add any color on how you may have changed your thought process? Is this largely based on U.S. value? Any thoughts around [ MFN ], [ IRA ], channel mix? And then just any comments on IP, just your levels of confidence in the IP.
Thank you, Luisa. So the valuation that we do considers a whole number of scenarios. What I would say is TERN-701 is a really impactful product. It's a product that has orphan drug designation. As such, as a product given the current rules, we would expect to not be included in IRA nor in MFN. Our valuation, however, is predominantly driven by the United States. So we are very confident in the valuation that we have given for the product and very excited for its launch. As we look at IP, we expect that IP will go out into the 2040s.
Our last question will come from Emily Field with Barclays.
I guess sort of a follow-up question to the earlier one on Gleevec, but asking a different way. I was just thinking back to ASCO a couple of years ago when Novartis presented the ASC4 first data. Most of the questions from the analysts then were really about the genericization of the earlier generation TKIs and how they expected commercial development from a payer and reimbursement perspective. So I was just wondering how you guys have thought about that and how the sort of generic and payer landscape may have evolved by the time this product could launch and how you'd be able to get coverage.
I'll just say from a scientific standpoint, then I'll hand it over to Jannie. My understanding from the physicians that we've talked to is that the desire or the attractiveness of that first allosteric TKI is such that people do want to prescribe it because of what they are perceived as improved ability to get MMR. And so I just want to sort of emphasize that what we believe is really important in this field is the improved MMR that we may achieve with TERN-701, but also the very much improved deep molecular response that when we look at it, we have not seen data that's similar to that outside of TERN-701. But with that, I'll turn it over to Jannie.
Yes. I mean, as we looked at it, we couldn't see any utilization management in terms of current treatment options. So we do believe that Asciminib will continue to take share. As we look at TERN-701, we do believe that differentiated data will continue to give the ability to use, and we will have time to really establish this as a treatment choice. So we do not foresee in terms of how the market currently operate that utilization management, genericization of any of these first or second-generation TKIs will affect the utilization, reimbursement and access to TERN-701, for instance.
Great. Thanks, Emily, and thanks, everyone, for your time and attention this morning. Please reach out to the Investor Relations team if you have any follow-up questions. Have a great day.
Thank you. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.
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Merck & Co. — Merck & Co., Inc., Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - M&A Call
Merck & Co. — Merck & Co., Inc., Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - M&A Call
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Merck übernimmt Terns Pharmaceuticals, um TERN‑701 — einen oralen, allosterischen BCR::ABL‑Inhibitor für die chronische myeloische Leukämie (CML) — in die Pipeline zu integrieren. Management sieht potenziell „best‑in‑class“-Efficacy, signifikantes kommerzielles Upside und strategische Ergänzung der Hämatologie‑Ambitionen.
🔎 Strategische Highlights
- Wirkmechanismus: Allosterische Hemmung zielt auf eine andere Protein‑Region als aktive‑Site‑TKIs und soll Resistenzmutationen überwinden sowie höhere Selektivität und bessere therapeutische Breite ermöglichen.
- Klinische Signale: Phase I/II CARDINAL zeigt ermutigende Raten an MMR (major molecular response) und DMR (deep molecular response) bis Woche 24, auch nach Vorbehandlungen inkl. Asciminib.
- Portfoliofit: Ergänzt Mercks Hämatologie‑Pipeline; Management erwartet Multimilliarden‑Chancen und frühen kommerziellen Beitrag ab den frühen 2030er‑Jahren.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Deal‑Terms: $53 pro Aktie; Gesamt‑Equity ≈ $6,7 Mrd.; Netto ≈ $5,7 Mrd. nach Barmitteln.
- Bilanz & Timing: Finanzierung primär durch neue Verschuldung; Abschluss erwartet im 2. Quartal 2026; Transaktion als Asset‑Erwerb geplant, R&D‑Aufwand 2026 ≈ $5,8 Mrd. (≈ $2,35/Aktie) und EPS‑Auswirkung ≈ −$0,17 in den ersten 12 Monaten.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Mechanismusfrage: Analysten haken nach Vorteil der allosterischen vs. aktiven Site‑Inhibitoren; Merck verweist auf überlegene Selektivität und mögliche Überwindung von Resistenzmutationen.
- Sicherheit: Diskussion zu Lipase‑Elevationen — Merck: überwiegend niedrig‑gradig, keine DLTs (dose‑limiting toxicities) bisher; weitere Charakterisierung in Expansion‑Dosisstudien.
- Entwicklungsplan & Kommerz: Fragen zu Phase‑III‑Design (Frontline vs. Asciminib), Timelines und Marktanteilsgewinn gegenüber Generika; Merck betont Bedarf an robusten, registrierungsfähigen Studien und sieht Wert primär in US‑Markt.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Wissenschaftlich rationale, strategisch passende Akquisition mit klaren langfristigen Upside‑Chancen für Merck. Kurzfristig belastet ein hoher R&D‑Charge und moderater EPS‑Effekt; entscheidend bleiben künftige randomisierte Phase‑III‑Daten, regulatorische Zulassung und erfolgreiche Integration.
Merck & Co. — TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
1. Question Answer
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46th Annual Healthcare Conference. We are absolutely delighted to have Merck senior leadership here with us today. Representing the company, Caroline Litchfield, who is Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Dr. Dean Li, who is President of Merck Research Labs, lots to talk about, both in the pipeline as well as the current operations. But to set the stage, Caroline, I'll turn it to you.
Thank you, Steve. So good afternoon, all. Thank you for being here, and thank you for your support and interest in Merck. Our company is transforming its portfolio. We're launching many new products including WINREVAIR, OHTUVAYRE, CAPVAXIVE Enflonsia and QLEX. We're in the midst of having more than 20 new growth drivers in our Human Health business. Every one of these products has the promise of advancing patient care and almost every product has blockbuster potential. And we've highlighted that there's more than $70 billion of commercial opportunity from those 20-plus products.
And it's not just human health. Our Animal Health business is also launching many products, and we expect to more than double the revenues of our Animal Health business by the mid-2030s.
And so we're increasingly confident in our future. And that future also includes a robust early-stage pipeline that will continue to evolve and hopefully yield Phase II, Phase III programs in the coming months and years that will equally drive revenues and patient impact in the 2030s.
So we're confident as a team that we can navigate the KEYTRUDA loss of exclusivity. And we talk about it as being more of a hill than a cliff as we expect our revenues to have a shallow dip before quickly turning to strong growth within a few years. And we will continue as a team to execute: execute on our launches, execute on our pipeline and continuing to augment this pipeline with scientifically focused value-creating business development so we can drive impact for patients and long-term growth for our company. So with that, we look forward to talking about anything and everything that's going on at Merck.
Great. So let's start with the pipeline. So Dean, you have 6 late-stage pipeline readouts in '26 and '27 and I'd like to ask you to rank them by clinical risk and let me just go through them for the sake of the audience, islatravir lenacapavir, MK-3000, tulisokibart, sac-TMT, the Cidara antibody and I-DXd.
So I'm going to list them by what they mean to us as a pipeline. And so I would sit there and say sac-TMT and I-Dxd are very important. They are all based on really important in most cases, Phase II. But actually, in the case of sac-TMT, they're often based on Phase IIIs from China. So that is our pivot of KEYTRUDA and chemo going to next-gen chemo.
In terms of new molecular mechanisms of actions, I think the MK-3000, the first new MOA for diabetic macular edema and neovascular AMD and clearly to the tulisokibart, where there is a possibility that this TL1A node could potentially become equivalent to the node of TNF and IL-23.
In relationship to sort of infectious disease, we're launching islatravir/doravirine, but the first time that someone could achieve a [ q weekly ] treatment is a islatravir and lenacapavir. And I think that will increased -- we already have a lot of confidence in this pathway with islatravir/doravirine so is islatravir and lenacapavir. And clearly, MK-1406 in relationship to, in some sense, a pre-exposure prophylaxis for influenza. So I think all of them are important in different ways. And so that's how I would sort of lay out the importance and relationship to our pipeline.
Okay. Great. I should have mentioned at the outset, should anyone have a question anywhere along the line, please raise your hand, and we will call on you. Lots to dig in on those products alone. But maybe we could start with MK-3000, a very exciting drug. What is the ideal target patient population for this asset? And what do you strive for in a clinical profile?
Yes. So if one looks at diabetic macular edema and neovascular AMD, that field has been transformed over the last two decades by anti-vascular endothelial growth factor molecules. And they've all come in maybe 6 to 10 years after each other. So you have Lucentis, you have Eylea, then you have Vabysmo. In every one of those situations, each one of them kind of took over the lead of the other ones using a non-inferior clinical trial. But all of them were based on vascular endothelial growth factor. This mechanism of MK-3000 is a totally different mechanism. It's based on Wnt agonism and so our hope is that we would do a clinical trial similar to the other ones that have been done. But the critical point for us is it will be important for anyone with diabetic macular edema or anyone with neovascular AMD, but critically important is around -- up to 40% of individuals don't respond to anti-VEGF or anti-vascular endothelial growth factor. So we believe that, that will be really important because it will be the first brand-new mechanism in decades for those diseases. And so that could be really exciting for the field.
And are the patients enrolled in the BRUNELLO trial, are these patients who failed VEGF?
No. So we're going to treat the trial no differently in relationship to all of the other trials, which is you basically take all comers. But essentially, you already know in those all comers, maybe 30% to 40% of the patients won't respond to anti-VEGF. So we will not be limited to those people who didn't respond. But in some sense, we will be enriched by the people who don't respond to anti-VEGF.
I see. Very exciting asset. Also on the list is islatravir. And we're intrigued by this ISLEND-1 and 2 trials. And curious, I guess, a risk with this modality could be that patients may forget a dose. So how is the trial designed? Is it patients who -- or do you exclude patients who have had trouble in trials with FAS or in the before, are you -- how are you gauging adherence? And how are you enriching the trial to assure regulators that there will not be a dosing issue with this molecule?
Yes. So these are people living with HIV. And the patients that we're doing are not patients who have virologic failures. So there's no enrichment. So this is going to be no different than any other sort of HIV study. What you've seen in our Phase II that this involves two important mechanisms, the nucleoside analog with translocation as well as the HIV capsid of our partner, Gilead. And in that trial, what you saw is you saw greater than 90% adherence and greater than 90% efficacy and we will count clearly adherence through pill count, but we believe that this once-weekly option, which will be the only once-weekly oral option for treatment will be something very important for certain patients living with HIV.
Okay. Maybe moving to another asset on the list, that being sac-TMT. What would be -- you point to as the strongest evidence that sac-TMT is better than the currently approved Trop ADCs, Trop-2 ADCs in lung and breast cancer?
Yes. So first of all, we have a Trop-2 ADC that is different. We would look at the other ADCs, one could potentially say that in one of them, the linker is a little bit loose. So you see this hematologic sort of adverse effect. The other one is quite tight. So you see the adverse effect of interstitial lung disease. So we think this is a differentiated molecules. Not all ADCs are the same. And HER2 is not the same thing as Kadcyla. And we are advancing sac-TMT in a whole series of trials, 17 trials. I think 13 of them are first movers, 4 of them are differentiated. And so we're moving in endometrial gastric, if positive, we can be the first mover of Trop-2. You specifically asked me about lung and breast. I can tell you all the theoretical, but we have a great partner in Kelun, and they have already shown Phase III trials in China that suggest that in non-small cell lung cancer in those patients with PD-L1 greater than 1, that, that would be a really important molecule. They've also done it in EGFR mutant. Again, that data is out there. And then the third place is HR positive, HER2 negative. And in each case of that, we have taken that lead and that information and formulated global trials that fit in the global setting based on those studies. And the data for those, I think many people have said they've been compelling in their differentiation in lung and in breast.
If sac-TMT does turn out to be differentiated relative to other Trop-2 ADCs, do you think the linker might be the key reason from an MOA perspective? Or are there other elements of the molecule that are...
I would say, generally, the antibody is basically saying the payload is slightly different but I do think it's all 3 combinations of the antibody, the linker and the payload. So I would say from a molecular standpoint, it could be more related to the linker. But I also think the concept that we were driving this in so many indications and tissue types that the other didn't even go into. So then you're not differentiated. You're just going there because you think your molecule has the tolerability and the durability to stay in for those cancers.
Questions from the audience? Moving to the Cidara assets. So can you just give us an update on the ANCHOR trial and your level of confidence that you are still on track to read out the trial in mid-2026?
So that trial did recruit extremely well in the Northern Hemisphere. We are definitely going to the Southern Hemisphere. We -- and I should just recount what this is, this is essentially an antiviral conjugated to a biologic backbone such that it has a long half-life and the concept is this would be a way to really reduce the chances of giving influenza, especially for those patients who are immunosuppressed, who have substantial comorbidities. We want to make sure that we are recruiting in the Southern Hemisphere because we think that it's very important to have a strain agnostic preventative in that patient population.
And I'll remind everyone that the flu vaccine does around 20% to 40% in us. But in patients who are immunosuppressed, it doesn't do that great. And in that patient population, the chances of something bad happening or a bad outcome is high. So we think this is a really important medicine for the world, but I would also just state that I'm going to imagine that the rate of vaccination in this country for flu will not necessarily increase over the next 3 to 4 years. So I think this molecule could be really important.
But Caroline, did you want to touch any of that?
So we're very excited about the promise that MK-1406 has. To Dean's point, we think this can be really impactful for people who have immunocompromised conditions or people over the age of 65. As we sized this opportunity, there's about 110 million people here in the United States. 85 million immunocompromised or with other comorbidities, a further 25 million who are over the age of 65. So what we're trying to do in our clinical program is really have a data set that will help see the impact that this protection could provide in helping stop getting the flu. And so we're progressing with our study. We have expanded and in the process of expanding in the Southern Hemisphere and would expect to read out during the early part of 2027.
Okay. A few products that aren't on that initial list though, which we discussed earlier, but are still very important, of course, first, the oral PCSK9. We had a cardiology panel yesterday here at the conference. Part of it was on lipids and the doctor believes that oral therapies are going to catalyze this market like we haven't seen in a long time. And the Merck product was front and center, albeit there was good attention on your competitor as well. But in addition to having the oral therapy, guideline changes were very much a part of the doctor's view what's going to catalyze growth in those markets. So how are you viewing that? And do you also think it's a catalyst? And also, can you include in the answer why you feel you can win in this market against what should be a pretty tough competitor?
So I would just say that I think many people don't realize that in 2013, in the American Heart Association, ACC guidelines, they took out any goal for LDL in 2013. I mean -- and in other places like Europe, they kept it. And that, I think, has done a disservice to the field and so over a decade, there hasn't been LDL levels. I believe that the American Heart Association and ACC will change that. They will drive that guidelines after more than a decade, they'll have some level for LDL, but I also think, increasingly, they look at other fields such as ASCO or oncology. I bet you they're going to not just lay a guideline but they're going to update their guidelines more effectively and more frequently.
The reason why that became so important is that a competitor or a colleague or however you want to put it, Amgen with Repatha show the VESALIUS trial. And essentially, if you had an LDL of 90 to 100, that's oftentimes your doctor says, "Well, that's kind of okay." If they could drive the LDL to 45, they got a 25% cardiovascular outcome benefit. So I think the HA and ACC realize there's a lot of movement in that space. And I think that if you get the guidelines, then you can get quality metrics than the hospitals care because if you're a hospital administrator, you don't care if it ain't in the guidelines. And I think it will catalyze the field.
In relationship to our molecule, essentially, I talked about VESALIUS. In some sense, what we try to do, and I should just highlight Repatha, which is the basis of VESALIUS was an Amgen product that Roger Perlmutter developed. We essentially had in our mind that we were going to make a biologic, a Repatha in a pill. So our molecule does exactly the interaction biochemically is exactly like Repatha. And the reason I say it is that the data that we've shown suggests that, but that makes it the most potent LDL cholesterol-lowering medicine that has ever been provided once it gets accepted. I believe that with the guidelines potentially coming in at 70 with some patient populations with 55 and increasingly drive it. A [ statin ] alone will not do it, you will need a [ statin ] and the next most important low LDL cholesterol-lowering molecule that you possibly can get. And that's what we hope to provide to patients and to people throughout the United States and the world.
And so what we have with enlicitide is very strong compelling clinical data. The United States have given us a commissioner national priority voucher. So we will be imminently filing enlicitide and an ordinary time line would take us to a Q1 '27 launch. We're hopeful, subject to that review process that we'll be launching in the nearer term.
Of course, approvals tend to reflect clinical trial design. And I imagine when this trial was designed 5, 6, 7, 8 years ago, the food dynamic was embedded in the trial design for whatever reason. But roll forward this number of years, it could be that maybe the fasting requirement is excessive, maybe it doesn't have to be that much. Is Merck doing any work to look at exactly in the contemporary world, how long that food effect has to be? Could it be shortened? Are you doing work to shorten it?
So I would answer it two ways. The answer is yes. But I would just recount that I understand that you're referring to someone else's where I don't have their Phase III, but their Phase II clearly is less LDL-cholesterol lowering. So if you take ours properly and you take theirs properly, ours is substantially more reduction in LDL. I don't know where their number is going to end up, but I suspect that even if you had a full English breakfast with ours than ours -- I still think it will be hard for people to be above ours. So ours, if you take it, you took it, you went to bed, you woke up, you took your medicine, you could have water, tea, coffee or like this for 30 minutes. If you do this, you'll get the most potent LDL-cholesterol-lowering medicine. If you sneak in a piece of bacon or something like this or a donut in there, I still think that you will have effective LDL-cholesterol but you won't have it at the level of the most potent LDL cholesterol lowering.
The question actually wasn't intended to infuse a competitor into -- it's more that your product could be -- it's a great product now, it could be even better if food restriction wasn't quite what it was. So is Merck doing studies to say, it doesn't have to be 8 hours, it could be one?
15 minutes? Is it 20 minutes? Those sort of things. Yes.
So you're doing that?
Yes. But I think the critical thing is we know that even if you did eat, where you would end up.
And knowing that this medicine, you will get up in the morning, you will take it with the other pills that you take. You can drink water, tea, coffee, you shouldn't eat for 30 minutes and in our clinical program, 96%, 97% of the patients on the program were compliant without us having to tell them what to do, they were naturally compliant with doing so.
Okay. Questions from the audience? You probably don't get a lot of BTK questions, but nemtabrutinib is a product that Merck seems to be maybe chatting about a little more about. Why is this an exciting molecule in a very competitive market?
It is a competitive market. I mean so this is CLL and -- there was a great drug that started the whole thing with Ibrutinib. But those are covalent inhibitors. And now the question is whether non-covalence can come in and go into first line. So we're really eager to see that but it's also we're talking about it not just because we're talking about nemtabrutinib. We talked about diversifying oncology. We had KEYTRUDA and they were going to diversify, and we're going to use what we knew about KEYTRUDA to get into the ADCs that we've just talked about to get into precision targeted, such as WELIREG and KRAS. But the other sort of thing is KEYTRUDA didn't have that big impact in heme malignancy. And so we have a series of compounds. It's nemtabrutinib. It's also [indiscernible] ADC. It's also our T cell engager, MK-1045 and then in the nonheme malignancies space, we have bomedemstat. So we're talking about nemta, but we're talking about 4 programs that will have readout in the next 1, 2, 3 years that is 4 products in the heme space.
Okay. One more product or a pipeline-related question then we'll get some to some business questions. But V940, will we get to Phase III cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma data this year? And if so, what should be our expectation?
Yes. So just to remind, this is the collaboration of the individualized neoantigen therapy or some people say the cancer vaccine for melanoma. That is in Phase III. We have two other Phase IIIs in non-small cell lung cancer, and we have a series of Phase IIs just peaking out ready to go into Phase III, depending on what we see with the Phase IIIs that we have out. And so the melanoma readout is based on a Phase II where you added the INT or the cancer vaccine on top of KEYTRUDA, and you saw an impressive reduction in disease relapse-free survival. The other important thing is over 5 years, that was a durable response. So we're very eager to see what that Phase III is because not only it will -- if it's successful, will it be important for melanoma, but it will trigger even more investment in these other tumor types.
In relationship to the PCD data, I think the PCD data is [ 28 ], and there's always chances of having interim analysis that read out early.
Okay. Can I ask about KRAS? You mentioned your KRAS inhibitor. Obviously, especially at the outset, an enormous amount of fanfare around the G12C inhibitors. I think it's fair to say that it's taking a little bit longer to see substantial impact on patients than perhaps had been hoped or at least implied by investor expectations. Where do you see the KRAS target going from here?
So I would tell you that KRAS G12C as a molecule and as a target is critically important in lung. And so this is an important lesson that we constantly learn, which is if you want to go in lung, and you can't move first line with a PD-1, you will not have an impact. The impact of KEYTRUDA or other PD-1s in lung is so profound that you have to be added to that. And the first-generation molecules could not do that. I don't think it will take time for those molecules. If you cannot combine with a PD-1 effectively and be at par of KEYNOTE-189 and better, I think it won't take on. Our 1084, we are enthusiastic. We're moving it in lung because we believe that it can -- here's a pill, you give subcu pembro, early, late, right? That's something that could be really important, both in the early stage, but in the first line. The same thing is true if you want to move it in CRC. If you're going to move it in colorectal cancer, it's fine to have a [ signal ] in second line, third line. But if you cannot combine it within EGFR or cetuximab, you will not have the full impact. So there was a lot of excitement because you got [ a signal ]. But in order to move these things, you need to be able to put it in first line, and you have to have a clear understanding of what it needs to combine with because if it does not combine, you will knock it in first line. If you do not get into first line, you will not have that impact.
Maybe going to a product that's just rolling out now and that's KEYTRUDA subcu or QLEX. So how -- what can -- other than sales, what metrics can investors monitor to see how you're progressing against that goal of 30% to 40% penetration of the KEYTRUDA molecule in a few years?
Yes. So we're really excited about QLEX, our subcutaneous formulation of pembrolizumab and the benefits it can provide patients as Dean just demonstrated in just a very short duration shot, you have been given your treatment for cancer. So what we have with this is a sales level of around $35 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 million. We expect sales to grow modestly in the first quarter this year before we'll see the permanent [ J code ] that we expect at the beginning of April. What we're hearing from both the health care providers as well as patients is in line with our expectations. That is, this is a tremendous innovation. It's an innovation that they need to work through their own operating processes and systems to ensure that it has the relevant formulary decisions. It's also on the electronic health record so that it can be utilized. But we're seeing early utilization already in predominantly patients who are on KEYTRUDA monotherapy or KEYTRUDA in combination with another oral agent. So that's the majority of the current use.
We are, however, also seeing use with IV chemotherapy. And that's largely in the early cancer setting. So the indications we're having thus far is the importance of this innovation the importance, especially when the patients are monotherapy or in combination with an oral agent and the importance in the early-stage cancer setting. So we expect still and have confidence in the 30% to 40% penetration of our overall KEYTRUDA business with adoption here for that patient group. And we will continue to provide insights to our investors as we see this unfold over the coming months and quarters.
GARDASIL, should we expect any major change in trends in 2026?
So we are very proud of the impact GARDASIL is having for the world in helping prevent HPV-related cancers. What we have stated for 2026 is we expect revenues to be roughly stable compared with where we were in 2025. And that's as we continue to really advance the vaccine, especially in the mid adult segment. While we do see in the adolescent segment, some maturation of where we've had penetration in the U.S. and outside of the U.S. So we see this as an important product for the world, an important contributor to Merck's revenue but not a driver of growth.
And we're down to only a few seconds left in the panel. So let me close by asking you each a question, same question, and that is, what do you anticipate will be the biggest change or surprise at Merck in the next decade? Maybe not a surprise to you, but it's a surprise to us.
So maybe where we started, our company really is transforming. And I think what you'll see in this next decade is our company transforming from a position where KEYTRUDA, GARDASIL and Animal Health were the dominant parts of our business to instead be a company that has a diverse set of products, products that are either first-in-class, they're best-in-class or we've innovated around them to bring the next innovation in those therapeutic areas. And as a result, we'll have made a difference in this world, we'll have driven strong growth for our company and returns for our shareholders.
And in Merck Research Labs?
To deliver on that promise.
Okay. That's a tall water. Well, thank you so much. This has been a very interesting conversation.
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Merck & Co. — TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
Merck & Co. — TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kernbotschaft: Merck präsentiert sich als wachstumsorientierter Konzern im Umbau: >20 neue Wachstumstreiber mit einem adressierbaren Markt von ~$70 Mrd., klare Diversifikation (Human & Animal Health) und die Erwartung, den Umsatzrückgang durch KEYTRUDA-Patentverlust als „Hügel statt Klippe“ zu managen – kurzfristig schwächer, mittelfristig wieder starkes Wachstum.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Portfoliotransformation: Zahlreiche Produkt-Launches (u.a. WINREVAIR, OHTUVAYRE, CAPVAXIVE Enflonsia, QLEX) und Ausbau der frühen Pipeline als Wachstumstreiber für die 2030er.
- Onkologie-Fokus: Starke Priorität auf ADCs (sac‑TMT), I-DXd, T‑cell‑Engager und KRAS‑Programme zur Diversifizierung neben Immunonkologie.
- Kardiologie & Virologie: Oraler PCSK9‑Wirkstoff (enlicitide) als potentieller Markt‑Katalysator; MK‑1406 (Langzeitprophylaxe gegen Influenza) für Risikogruppen.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Zeithorizonte & Kommerz: Cidara ANCHOR‑Programm soll laut Merck Mitte 2026 ausgelesen werden; MK‑1406‑Ergebnis erwartet laut Management eher Anfang 2027; enlicitide steht kurz vor Einreichung mit Zielmarkteintritt Q1 2027; QLEX (subkutanes Pembrolizumab) zeigt frühen Umsatz und erwartet permanenter Abrechnungscode.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- MK‑3000: Zielpopulation sind „All Comers“ bei diabetischer Makulaödem/naVE AMD, besonderer Nutzen für 30–40% VEGF‑Nonresponder.
- Islatravir/Lenacapavir: Adhärenz‑Risiko für einmalwöchentliche Therapie wurde adressiert (Phase‑II: >90% Adhärenz); Designs ohne Enrichment für Virologische Failures.
- sac‑TMT‑Differenzierung: Diskussion über Rolle von Antikörper, Linker und Payload; China‑Phase‑III‑Daten (Kelun) als Basis für globale Trials.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Merck liefert narrative und konkrete Timing‑Angaben zu mehreren potenziellen Blockbustern; das Management betont Diversifikation gegen KEYTRUDA‑LOE. Kurzfristig bleiben klinische Readouts und Zulassungsrisiken die Haupttreiber – positive Ergebnisse könnten starke Kurskatalysatoren sein, Misserfolge hohe Negativwirkung.
Merck & Co. — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Merck & Company, Inc., Wawa New Jersey USA Fourth Quarter Sales and Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Peter Dannenbaun, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Thank you, Shirley, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2025 Conference Call for Merck & Company, Inc. Roway, New Jersey USA. Speaking on today's call will be Rob Davis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Caroline Litchfield, Chief Financial Officer; and Dr. Dean Lee, President of Research Labs. Before we get started, I'd like to point out that we have items in our GAAP results such as acquisition-related charges, restructuring costs and certain other items that we have excluded from our non-GAAP results. There is a reconciliation in our press release. .
I will also remind you that some of the statements that we make today may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are made based on the current beliefs of our company's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties.
If our underlying assumptions prove inaccurate or uncertainties materialize, actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. Our SEC filings, including Item 1A in the 2024 10-K, identify certain risk factors and cautionary statements that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from those projected in any of our forward-looking statements made this morning.
Merck & Company Incorporated, Rabale, New Jersey USA, undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements. During today's call, a slide presentation will accompany our speakers' prepared remarks. These slides along with the earnings release, today's prepared remarks and our SEC filings are all posted to the Investor Relations section of our company's website. With that, I'd like to turn the call to Rob.
Thanks, Peter. Good morning, and thank you for joining today's call. Our company's purpose to save and improve lives guides everything we do. In 2025, we advanced key programs across all phases of development, furthering our mission to deliver transformative medicines and vaccines that will improve health outcomes for patients around the world. I'm very proud of the significant progress we are making. And as we look ahead, we'll remain intently focused on bringing forward breakthrough science and innovation which is the foundation for creating sustainable long-term value for both patients and shareholders.
The transformation of our portfolio is well underway, and momentum is building as we continue to execute on our strategy. In 2025, our business benefited from successful new product launches, the advancement of important clinical programs and the expansion of our respiratory and infectious disease portfolios through the acquisitions of Rona Pharma and Cidara Therapeutics. As a result of this progress, we now have line of sight to over $70 billion of potential commercial opportunity by the mid-2030s, $20 billion more than just a year ago and more than double consensus 2028 peak KEYTRUDA revenue of $35 billion.
While we still have more to do, this meaningful progress further bolsters my already high confidence in our ability to deliver sustainable growth post the KEYTRUDA LOE period. Now turning to our results and initial outlook for 2026. Growth in 2025 reflects demand for our innovative portfolio, including for KEYTRUDA, which continues to benefit more patients with cancer globally, increasing contributions from new launches in cardiometabolic and respiratory as well as vaccines and strong performance of Animal Health.
We're well positioned to achieve commercial success across key products in 2026 while we make important investments behind our new product launches and expanded pipeline, which Caroline will speak to momentarily. Our research colleagues continue to achieve remarkable progress across our broad and deep pipeline. Focusing on a few key events from the fourth quarter; in cardiometabolic and respiratory, at AHA, we presented Phase III results for enlicitide that underscore the practice-changing potential of an oral PCSK9 inhibitor. Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death globally, and we look forward to bringing a potential new option to help address the CV epidemic. For winrevere we announced Phase II top line findings from the CADENCE trial that are supportive of its continued development in a different type of pulmonary hypertension. And building on recent momentum in HIV, we shared positive top line results for islatravir in combination with doravirine for treatment-naive adults living with HIV.
Finally, we're pleased that both enlicitide and SAC TMT, our investigational TROI directed antibody drug conjugate. We're granted commissioners national priority vouchers by the FDA, which may expedite review of these important investigational candidates after applications are filed. We recently completed the acquisition of Cidara, which complements our portfolio and builds on our long legacy in combating infectious diseases. MK 1406, formerly CD 388 is a potentially first-in-class long-acting antiviral candidate designed to help prevent influenza infection in individuals at higher risk of developing serious complications.
There is a substantial unmet need for influenza prevention in a large at-risk population and Phase II results were very promising. We believe MK 1406 has greater than $5 billion in revenue potential and can be a meaningful driver of growth later this decade and through the next. We're excited to welcome the Cidara team to our company and look forward to advancing this novel preventative antiviral agent.
Today, our business is anchored by an important set of commercial products that address critical unmet needs. We're also executing on the transformation of our portfolio with initial launches from over 20 potential new growth drivers to have the promise to advance the practice of medicine and change patient lives. Ten of these programs could be substantially clinically derisked over the next 2 years and represent the majority of our $70 billion of nonrisk-adjusted commercial opportunity by the mid-2030s.
And our long-term outlook is further bolstered by the strong growth we expect in our Animal Health business by the many early phase programs that will enter Phase I in the near term and through additional potential science-led disciplined and value-enhancing business development. We're entering a particularly robust period of first-time Phase III data readouts for novel candidates. In 2026, these include islatravir combined with lenacapavir, potentially the first once-weekly oil treatment regimen for people living with HIV. MK-3000, potentially the first new mechanism of action in 2 decades for patients with certain retinal diseases. And torsokibar, where we expect to see Phase III results in ulcerative colitis as well as Phase II data in other autoimmune diseases.
There is an even richer array of expected readouts in 2027 and including Phase III results for SAC TMT, which we believe is a differentiated Trop2 ADC. For IDXD, our B7-H3 antibody drug conjugate being studied in small cell lung cancer and other tumor types for NK-1406 as well as for a number of other important programs. In summary, we're successfully executing multiple product launches, making significant clinical advancements and augmenting our pipeline with strategic business development. We're also making the necessary investments that will sustain our success over the long term. Our progress and momentum positions us to continue delivering on our purpose for patients and create durable value for shareholders.
I want to recognize and thank our global teams for their commitment. While there is more to do, the actions taken, the progress we've made and our continued disciplined execution provide me with strong confidence that we're well positioned for our next chapter of success. With that, I'll turn the call over to Caroline.
Thank you, Rob. Good morning. As Rob noted, in 2025, we made meaningful progress in benefiting patients and customers around the world with our portfolio of innovative medicines and vaccines. Our business delivered growth driven by continued strength in oncology and Animal Health as well as increasing contributions from new product launches. These results demonstrate the enduring strength of our business and give us confidence in our outlook as we enter a period with many new launches. Our commercial and operational execution enable us to invest in discovering, developing and launching the next generation of innovations, which will drive long-term value for patients, customers and shareholders. .
Now turning to our fourth quarter results. Total company revenues were $16.4 billion, an increase of 5% or 4% excluding the impact of foreign exchange. The following revenue comments will be on an ex-exchange basis. In oncology, sales of the KEYTRUDA family of products, which includes KEYTRUDA and KEYTRUDA Q increased 5% to $8.4 billion, with global growth driven by robust uptake in earlier-stage cancers and strong demand from metastatic indications, utilization in tumors that primarily affects women, including breast, cervical and endometrial cancers, continues to be a key contributor to growth.
In addition, we saw increased use of KEYTRUDA in combination with Padcev in locally advanced or metastatic urothelial cancer. In the U.S., growth was negatively impacted by approximately $200 million due to the timing of purchases. We are pleased with the positive provider feedback following the recent launch of KEYTRUDA QLEX. As expected, sales in the quarter were $35 million. We look forward to having a greater impact on patients and health care systems following implementation of a permanent J code in the U.S., which we continue to expect to occur in the beginning of April. Our broader oncology portfolios achieved another quarter of strong growth. Notably, Welly rec sales increased 37% to $220 million, predominantly driven by increased use in certain patients with previously treated advanced renal cell carcinoma in the U.S. as well as continued uptake from ongoing launches in certain international markets.
We look forward to potentially reaching more patients with renal cell carcinoma, following positive data from the Light Spot 11 and 22 studies. In vaccines, GARDASIL sales were $1 billion, a decrease of 35% driven by lower demand in China and Japan. Other international markets grew 8%, benefiting from the timing of purchases. In the U.S., sales grew 7%, largely due to price. In pneumococo, the Capexes launch continues to progress well, with sales of $279 million, driven by demand from both retail pharmacies and nonretail customers, including uptake from increased seasonal immunization activity in the U.S.
In RSV, Inflonzia sales were $21 million. Initial uptake has been constrained by a lower-than-expected infant immunization rate coupled with high levels of total RSV monoclonal antibody inventory in the market. In cardiometabolic and respiratory, WINREVAIR continues to have a positive impact for patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension. Global sales was $467 million, a reflection of the continued strong demand for this important treatment. In the U.S., more than 1,500 new patients received a prescription and over 27,000 total prescriptions were dispensed.
We also saw an increase in the proportion of patients whose background therapies do not include a prostacyclin. Outside the U.S., we continue to progress with securing approvals and reimbursement. We are excited to build upon the successful U.S. launch of otuver, a maintenance treatment for adults with COPD with a novel mechanism of action. In the quarter, sales were $178 million, reflecting revenues following the acquisition of Verona on October 7. We delivered strong growth in new patient starts and total patients treated. We also saw physicians prescribe Otuver to more of their patients and an increase in the total number of prescribing physicians.
As a reminder, we expect seasonality in the early part of the year as Medicare deductibles are reset. We are making investments to maximize the ongoing launch in the U.S. and look forward to benefiting more adult patients with COPD. Our Animal Health business delivered another quarter of strong growth, with sales increasing 6%. Livestock sales grew 9%, driven by higher demand across all species. Companion animal sales were flat as growth from new product launches was offset by a reduction in vet visits. I will now walk you through the remainder of our P&L, and my comments will be on a non-GAAP basis.
Gross margin was 79.7%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points due to higher inventory reserves, partially offset by favorable product mix. Operating expenses decreased to $6.8 billion, a charge of $150 million related to an agreement with Dr. Falk Pharma to acquire sole global rights to MK-8690 was lower than the $700 million in business development charges a year ago. Excluding these charges, operating expenses were flat reflecting an increase in investments in support of our innovative pipeline and key growth drivers offset by the benefits of our multiyear optimization initiative.
Other expense was $226 million. Our tax rate was 15.4%. Taken together, earnings per share were $2.04. Now turning to our 2026 non-GAAP guidance. We expect revenue to be between $65.5 billion and $67 billion representing growth of 1% to 3%, including a positive impact from foreign exchange of approximately 1 percentage point using mid-January rates. Our gross margin assumption is approximately 82%. Operating expenses are assumed to be between $35.9 billion and $36.9 billion which includes a onetime charge of approximately $9 billion related to the acquisition of Cidara.
As a reminder, our guidance does not assume additional significant potential business development transactions. Other expense of approximately $1.3 billion includes financing costs for Cidara and Verona. We assume a full year tax rate between 23.5% and 24.5%, which reflects the nontax deductible onetime charge for Cidara. We assume approximately 2.48 billion shares outstanding. Taken together, we expect EPS of $5 to $5.15 with a midpoint of $5.08, including a positive impact from foreign exchange of approximately $0.10 using mid-January rates.
Excluding approximately $3.65 per share related to the upfront charge for the acquisition of Cidara as well as $0.30 per share of ongoing costs to advance MK-1406 and finesta transaction, our midpoint would be $9.03. As you consider your models, there are a few items to keep in mind. We expect to deliver growth in 2026 driven by increasing contributions from our new launches as well as continued strength in oncology and Animal Health, despite a headwind of approximately $2.5 billion from generic competition, IRA price setting and the restructured agreement for Caselli go. Generic competition primarily impacts the Januvia family of products, Radeon and deficit.
We also expect significantly lower sales of Lagebrio due to continued soft demand some growth, including new product launches and our robust pipeline. And with the goal of increasing it over time. Business development remains a high priority. We are well positioned to pursue additional transactions when science and value align. Our guidance assumes approximately $3 billion of share repurchases, and we remain committed to not having excess cash build on the balance sheet.
To conclude, we entered 2026 with confidence in the outlook for our business, driven by global demand for our innovative medicines and vaccines, including the exciting progress of our many launches and upcoming clinical milestones from our promising pipeline. We maintain our longstanding commitment to bringing forward medically significant innovations that will enable us to deliver value to patients, customers and shareholders well into the future. With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to Dean.
Thank you, Caroline. Good morning, everyone. Progress continues across programs spanning multiple therapeutic areas. Today, I will provide updates across cardiometabolic and respiratory, infectious disease and oncology programs, then conclude with a summary of highlights from 2025 and upcoming milestones for this year.
Starting with advancements across our cardiometabolic and respiratory pipeline and programs, enlicitide, our investigational oral PCSK9 inhibitor has been designed to deliver antibody-like efficacy while offering a simple, once-daily oral treatment option with the potential to help address the CV epidemic.
Data from 2 Phase III studies evaluating elicitide for the treatment of adults with elevated LDL cholesterol were presented at the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions in November. In both the core reef lipid study, which included a broad population of adults with or at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease on background lipid-lowering therapies or with statin intolerant, and the Coral Reef AFH study in adults with Familia, heterozygose and hypercholesterolemia, enlicopide demonstrated statistically significant sustained reductions in multiple atherogenic factors, including LDL-C, Apo B, non-HDL-C and Lp(a).
The findings from the core reef HEFH were published in the Journal of the American Medical Association and from core reef lipids have been accepted to the New England Journal of Medicine. In addition, positive results of the third Phase III trial core reef add-on, evaluating elicitide comparing to other oral nonstatin therapies in adults with hypercholesterolemia and treated with a statin will be presented at the American College of Cardiology Congress in March.
The Phase III CORE REIT outcome study is ongoing and fully enrolled. For vinrevere, we continue to make progress on our global regulatory strategy. Last month, the European Commission approved an expanded indication in adults with pulmonary arterial hypertension with WHO functional Class II, III and IV based on the Phase III ZENITH study. We are continuing to evaluate vinrevere in an additional indication associated with progressive vascular remodeling and resistance. The Phase II Cadence study met its primary endpoint, achieving statistically significant and clinically meaningful reduction of pulmonary vascular resistance compared to placebo in adults with combined post and precapillary pulmonary hypertension due to heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.
These findings support proof of concept, which will inform a Phase III program in this population. Detailed results will also be presented at the American College of Cardiology Congress in March. Next, infectious disease. Last month, we completed the acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics. The scale of the ongoing seasonal flu outbreak in the Northern Hemisphere reinforces the threat posed by Influenza, the corresponding burden on health care systems and importantly, the need for improved prevention strategy, specifically for those individuals at high risk of serious complications.
The Phase III ANCHOR study evaluating MK-1406, a potentially first-in-class long-acting preventative strain agnostic antiviral with a differentiated mechanism of action, completed enrollment in November in the Northern Hemisphere. In parallel, we will enroll participants in the Southern hemisphere to ensure the collection of a robust data set spanning a broad patient population, including adults who are immunocompromised and to capture additional data on diverse circulating strains.
Furthermore, it is also important for the study to encompass those who have been vaccinated against the flu and those who have not. Turning to HIV. In November, we announced positive top line results for our investigational once-daily, single-tablet 2-drug regimen of doravirine and ezlosevir and next-generation nucleoside analog leveraging translocation inhibition from a Phase III study in previously untreated adults with HIV 1 infection. This is the first 2-drug regimen without an HIV integrated strand transfer inhibitor to demonstrate noninferior efficacy and safety versus the broadly used 3-drug entry-based regimen, Biktarvy. Based on its potent antiviral properties and barrier to resistance, it is our ambition that islotevir will serve as a novel anchor medicine across multiple 2-drug treatment regimens providing new daily and weekly options for people living with HIV.
Detailed results will be presented at an upcoming medical congress.
Moving to oncology. Data continue to demonstrate KEYTRUDA's impact in treating a wide spectrum of cancers. In bladder cancer, there were 2 recent notable developments. First, the FDA approved KEYTRUDA and KEYTRUDA Culex each in combination with padcef as neoadjuvant treatment and continued after cystectomy as adjuvant treatment for adults with muscle invasive bladder cancer who are ineligible for cisplatin containing chemotherapy based on Phase III KEYNOTE-905 trial.
This is the first PD-1 inhibitor plus antibody-drug conjugate regimen approved for this population. Second, we announced positive top line results from the Phase III KEYNOTE-B15 study. The combination of KEYTRUDA plus padcev, given as neoadjuvant and adjuvant treatment demonstrated statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements in event-free survival, overall survival and pathologic complete response rates versus neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery.
This is the first and only perioperative immunotherapy plus ADC regimen shown to extend survival for cisplatin eligible patients with muscle invasive bladder cancer. Detailed results will be presented later this month at the ASCO Gentiourinary Cancer Symposium. Together, these regimens have the potential to offer patients with muscle invasive bladder cancer who are either eligible or ineligible for cisplatin chemotherapy, a KEYTRUDA-based option. Three additional Phase III studies are ongoing evaluating KEYTRUDA across different stages of bladder cancer, including KEYNOTE-992, KEYNOTE-866 and Keynote-676.
In collaboration with Moderna, we recently announced 5-year follow-up data for the Phase IIb Keynote-942 study evaluating intersabaran autogene, an individualized neoantigen therapy candidate in combination with KEYTRUDA in patients with high-risk Stage III or IV melanoma following complete resection. In the follow-up analysis, the study demonstrated a sustained improvement in recurrence-free survival with a 49% reduction in the risk of recurrence or death compared to KEYTRUDA alone, building on the previously announced primary and 3-year analysis from the trial.
The Phase III INTERPATH-001 trial in adjuvant melanoma is ongoing and fully enrolled. In November, the European Commission approved a subcutaneous injection of pembrolizumab and veraloranadase alpha market in the EU as KEYTRUDA SC for use in all 33 KEYTRUDA indications for adult patients. It is the first and only subcutaneous immune checkpoint inhibitor in Europe, that can be administered in 1 minute, every 3 weeks or in 2 minutes every 6 weeks. The availability of more rapid subcutaneous pembrolizumab administration is being integrated into our clinical development programs.
CANALI-007, a Phase III study evaluating colderasib an investigational oral selective KRASG12C inhibitor in combination with KEYTRUDA culex for the first-line treatment of patients with KRAS G12C mutant advanced or metastatic nonsquamous non-small cell lung cancer. In December, at the American Society of Hematology Annual Meeting, we highlighted progress across our hematology pipeline with positive data spanning multiple candidates, including MK-1045, an investigation of CD19 CD3 T cell engager in adult with relapsed or refractory B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia.
Naphtabrutineb, an investigational noncovalent BTK inhibitor in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma, ambomademsta, an investigational LSD1 inhibitor in patients with polycythemia vera who are resistant or intolerant to cytoreductive therapy. In addition, there are 2 ongoing Phase III studies evaluating modest in essential thrombocythemia and orphan disease. 2025 was marked by significant pipeline progress, including positive data announced from 18 Phase III trials and the initiation of 21 Phase III trials spanning cardiometabolic and respiratory, immunology, infectious disease, oncology and ophthalmology. We also secured regulatory approvals across therapeutic areas, including in oncology, KEYTRUDA CLEC and additional KEYTRUDA-based regimen, including in patients with cisplatin-ineligible MIBC and locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.
In infectious disease emplanzia are long-acting monoclonal antibody for the prevention of respiratory syntictal virus, lower respiratory tract disease in infants born during or entering their first RSV season. And in cardiovascular, the label update for vinrevere River in PAH. Finally, we continue to deliver on our 1 pipeline strategy by leveraging our clinical expertise and robust business development capabilities. The acquisition of Verona Pharma and Cidara Therapeutics further strengthen our pipeline and bring forward promising candidates with the potential to serve areas of significant unmet patient need.
Building on our momentum in 2025, we anticipate a series of milestones across multiple therapeutic areas in the coming months, including in oncology, the February 20 PDUFA date for certain patients with platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer based on the KEYNOTE-B96 trial. Presentation of detailed findings at ASCO GU 4, Welareg, our first-in-class oral HIF-2 alpha inhibitor across adjuvant and certain types of advanced renal cell carcinoma based on the Phase III Light Park 11 and 22 trials and for KINO B15 and cisplatin eligible patients with MIBC.
In HIV, the April 28 PDUFA date for doravirine and islatravir, a once daily oral 2-drug treatment regimen and top line data from the Phase III ISL1 and 2 trials evaluating izlogivir and lenacapavir as a once-weekly oral 2-drug treatment regimen in collaboration with Gilead. In cardiometabolic and respiratory, the presentation of detailed results at ACC in March for vinerevere from the Phase II Cadence study in a subset of pulmonary hypertension due to left heart disease. And for elicitide from the Phase III Core REF add-on trial.
In immunology, data for Tuliocopar, our TL1A inhibitor based on the Phase III ATLAS UC trial in ulcerative colitis and Phase II ATHENA study in FSC ILD. Finally, in ophthalmology, data from the Phase III Brunella study of MK 3000 our novel win agonist being evaluated in diabetic macular edema and the Phase II RORA study of MK-8748 are potential first-in-class tie-2 agonist VEGF inhibitor being evaluated for the treatment of certain retinal disputes.
We continue to advance our diversified pipeline with a focus on executing with speed and rigor I look forward to providing further updates through 2026. And now I turn the call back to Peter.
Thank you, Dean. Surely we're now ready for Q&A. We have a hard stop today at 10:00 a.m. So I'd like to request that analysts limit themselves to 1 question, please.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Mohit Bansal with Wells Fargo.
2. Question Answer
And congrats on all the pipeline progress. Maybe if you can double-click on the CD388 asset and potential for interim here. So the flu season appears to be strong this season. So it would seem like that event rates may be occurring ahead of the plan in the ANCHOR trial. But would love to understand your thoughts around running the full trial? Is it based on generating robust data across 2 geographies, 2 seasons or anything you're seeing from the event based point of view ongoing trial? And should we expect an interim disclosure in March or after March or not?
This is Dean. I do think your point about the relatively severe season, especially for many of us in the Northeast for the flu demonstrates how important this small you could be. We have completed enrollment in the Northern Hemisphere. I want to emphasize, as I said in the prepared, we are in parallel recruiting in this southern hemisphere -- this is an event-driven trial. I want to have the right trial size, I want the powering of the assumptions. But most importantly, I need to make sure that I have strong data throughout a series of subpopulations that will be important for the future label. So at this time, we have not spoken communication plans following IA, but we're excited about this first-in-class once per season strain agnostic antiviral agent, which I think will have increasing need as the year go by.
Our next question comes from Akash Tewari with Jefferies.
Are there any plans to explore that GMT in a first-line and CLC setting in PD-1 low expressing patients or head-to-head against the KEYNOTE-189 regimen given some of the emerging data you're seeing out of China. I'm kind of curious why your coq2 development strategy seems to be relatively conservative versus what AstraZeneca and Daiichi are exploring, especially if you have a differentiated asset?
Thank you very much for that question. So as we've said repeatedly, we think this is a work horse ADC. We also think that I look at the HER2 field and -- so there and I go, you just changed the linker and the payload and all of a sudden, you have very different readouts from an antibody drug conjugate. And so we think sec TMT has a potential to be best-in-class TROP2 directed ADCs. What I would say when you talk about the ambition, I mean, we have 16 Phase III studies, 11 that we view our first-in-class, the other 5 are differentiated.
So I just I think we're very ambitious with our SAC TMT program. In relationship to the specific question in relationship to non-small cell lung differentiated approaches to others. But most important, we also have it in tissue tugs and tumor types where we are hoping to be first. So I would challenge a little bit the characterization that we do not have a robust and ambitious program. We have 16 Phase III studies.
Thank you Akash.
Our next question comes from Alex Hammond with Wolf Research.
So consensus currently anticipates KEYTRUDA's U.S. LOE to occur in '28. However, Merck SEC filings suggest potential for 2 additional patents that expire in '29. So I guess, how should we model the IP run rate for KEYTRUDA? And how should we think about the timing associated with QX ramp prior to KEYTRUDA IV biosimilar introduction?
Yes. Thanks for the question. As you look at the intellectual property situation for KEYTRUDA. There was -- when the original invention was filed for approval with the patent office, there were actually 4 patents that made up the patent estate that was the original innovation. One of those is the compound patent which expires December of 2028. 2 of those, one a method of making patent actually is extended out to May of 2029. And the second one, a method of use patent goes out to November of 2029. And so as we looked at this initially, we were conservative in our assumptions and always based off the compound patent, always though with the intent that we would defend the entire patent estate.
I think what has evolved over time is that this case law has emerged our confidence that we will be able to defend those additional 2 patents has grown. And thus, there is a potential that you're going to see protection actually make it through either May or November of 2029. For planning purposes, we continue to assume 2028 because I think that's a conservative assumption, and we'll have to see where it goes. And I would also remind you that we do face the IRA as of the beginning of 2029.
As we think about the QX adoption, we continue to think we're going to see 30% to 40% adopted as you get out to 2028 and we will drive that as high as we can. And as you know, we have priced this to drive for the adoption from KEYTRUDA IV to QLC. So that will continue. That strategy is underway. And frankly, whether it's '28 to '29 does not change the strategy we're following.
Next question pls.
The next question comes from Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.
I want to touch on the HIV data that you were discussing. Can you just contextualize the importance of a dual regimen versus the standard of care bactgravir of atarvy? And kind of what's the feedback in more broadly unmet need for a dual regimen versus the standard of care triple.
Yes. So thank you very much for that question. So as you highlight, we're really excited about is LotiVer because we really think it's a next-generation cleoside analog. So leverage is a unique mechanism of translocation inhibition that gives it high potency and high degree of resistance. In relationship to 2 drugs and 3 drugs, there have been always a need for different options you see it already, there is a 2-drug regimen out there in relationship to the 3 drugs, and there have been considerable switching that occurs in this patient population just as a general rule. So the ability to send a different sort of repertoire of compounds, especially if you can spare the integrase would be potentially very important for some people, that's often viewed in light of metabolic and long-term issues with HIV treatment.
So I think there will be an excitement of having a 2-drug combo without an insti backbone. Equally important, I just want to make sure is we're driving a 2-drug regimen for the first Q weekly offering and we have won with our partner, Gilead, and we have another 1 with Uline. So I think all of those, that 2 drug for daily, but also that 2 drug for weekly is something -- there's no weekly 3 drug or 2 drugs.
So we think there will be an important opportunity for patients to experience a 2-weekly option. And finally, we have a q monthly prep or we don't -- there is no other Q monthly oral prep. Although it's not islotivir, it's a related compound, which is MK8527.
Next question comes from Steve Scala with TD Cowen.
A bigger picture question for Rob. But in 2025, Merck achieved the sales guidance it provided to start the year and you dealt with the GARDASIL pressures all year long. But in any year for any company, there will be some challenges. So this is likely to be more the rule rather than the exception. And Merck has some growth products, too. So in what might be a typical year, Merck grew minimally. And in 2026, you are again looking for minimal top line growth with the KEYTRUDA LOE still a couple of years off. .
So the question is, is this what we should expect from Merck going forward, a company that grows modestly in good times and significantly pressured in less good times or can Merck achieve sustainable, strong sales growth in the decade ahead despite what will be inevitable challenges?
Yes. No, Steve, I appreciate the question. I would just reemphasize, as we look forward, -- and I think what you're hearing in our confidence and why we think, over time, we will be a strong growing company. So I'm not sure I agree with your characterization that we will be a modest growing company in every year or less depending on what happens that's, I think, taking a 1-year context.
But if you look over the longer term, that $70 billion we have of potential is significant when you think that, that is -- as you look at it, it's more than double what KEYTRUDA will be at its consensus peak in '28 of $35 billion. And importantly, $20 billion higher than where we were and driven by probably the broadest and widest pipeline we've had in here.
So our belief in our ability to have sustainable growth once we get post the LOE is as high as it's ever been. And we're not done. We have early-stage pipeline assets that we believe we'll be reading out in the next 2 years and will allow us to continue to bring some of those assets into this period, plus additional business development -- and as you know, none of this includes the Animal Health business, which we expect to more than double out to the mid-2030s as well as the base of KEYTRUDA over time.
So I think that's important to understand. And the other thing I'd highlight of the $70 billion, we're going to derisk substantially all of that by the time we get to the end of 2027. So you'll know the portfolio that's going to drive our growth into the next decade by the time you get out to 2027. And that's, I think, also important as people start to want clarity on the long-term future.
The last thing I would just add, if you look at 2025 as an example, what we saw in the quarter is really a strong growth profile. And as you look forward, if you adjust for the LOE period we had that we've noted with JANUVIA, with deficit, with Bridion plus LaGebrIo and Cosala. We actually are giving guidance of growth in, I think, the 4% to 7% or roughly 5% to 8% range over time, which actually is pretty strong growth. And I think that is more of the focus. What is the sustainable strategic growth of those assets long term, not what are the onetime nonstrategic LOEs we're facing this year.
Great. Next question please.
Our next question comes from James Shin with Deutsche Bank.
One for Dean. On Cadence an ACA presentation, can you help level state what we should and should not expect to win. Also, any color on which potential endpoints may be explored in the Phase III for CPC PH2?
You broke up for a little bit there. So I'll hope that I answer your questions. I think we'll provide the data from that Phase II. There's a primary endpoint, but there's also important secondary endpoints that will also be provided. In relationship to what you've just asked in terms of the a future Phase II that we've discussed. We're in the middle of those discussions with the FDA. And I think just as a general sort of statement. .
Generally, we'll have to think about things like functional activity. You often have clinical events that will be important. There'll be biomarkers, but it will be very important to align with the FDA because in this patient population, which should be an orphan indication patient population, we'll have to level set as to how one thinks about the outcomes and the primary secondary end points.
But we're eager to provide that data at ACC, and we're continuing to have discussions with the FDA as we define essentially a new population that we're going to target with this drug. And so some of the questions you had in terms of the endpoints are things that are important discussions right now.
Our next question comes from Carter Gould with Cantor.
Another 1 for Dean. I recognize on your TL1A, the near-term focus is on Atlas UC. At the same time, we're seeing the insurance til23 players step up sort of all sorts of combinations and as well as multispecifics rapidly intensify their efforts with pretty sizable partnerships. So again, recognizing Atlas you see is the eastern forgo focus, but how does Merck think about the importance and speed it may need to pursue combinations on the back of those data later this year?
Yes. So I love your question just so that we all level set. Essentially in this field, TNF and IL-23 has dominated. And the big question is whether there's a third node or a third class which is TL1A And our ambition is to be the first and best-in-class TL1A, we're studying it in 6 diseases. But as you highlight, it is the ulcerative colitis and the Crohn's disease that's coming up very quickly. If those are successful, like in every immunology indication, the question will become patient populations, other diseases. But then people will start talking about combinability. They'll talk about combinability in terms of 2 separate antibodies, I'll talk about by specifics and increasingly, they'll talk about orals.
And I can assure you that, that concept of we intend to be first and best but also that we have a robust plan for being next is well in line, but that's probably something that I don't want to say on a public call at this time.
Our next question comes from Geoff Meacham with Citi.
Another 1 on vinrevere. So you're about to hit 2 years on the market. Can you guys speak to trends on duration of therapy or maybe a real-world safety tolerability. And if anything, is different versus Phase III? And then beyond cadence, how are you guys thinking about related pulmonology indications, just where the mechanism may have an impact?
So I'll start. There were a lot of questions from a scientific standpoint, but I just want to emphasize that vinrevier is reshaping the standard of care in PAH. It's doing it because it is a differentiated pathway and a molecule. All the other drugs, you would look at this and you would say they are classic vasodilators. This is a drug that gets to the underlying biology through the genetics. And the way that I would actually begin to think about Wind River and what Windrevir may be doing to right heart failure and PAH is similar to what Merck showed for ACE inhibitors back in the day in relationship to left heart failure. .
So when you ask me that question, I'm sitting there like I think we are already reshaping the standard of care. I would imagine guidelines, will be coming out and will be shaped by that clinical data. In relationship to adverse effects and long-term treatment, I actually just came from a tour of -- in Texas of sites, and they're quite bullish on not only the drug but also the sustainability and the concept that all of a sudden, they began in their minds talking about cardiac blunting cardiac remodeling. So that's with this.
We are advancing in relationship to heart failure as the previous question did in cadence. But I love your question because much of it is focused on what is the stress on the right heart. And as you point out, there could be pulmonary indications where you get pulmonary hypertension that we have to think carefully about where and when to use this drug, but there are investigators who pose that question to us. And they also pose the question that, when you look at PAH, there is different patient populations, but quite a number of them have connective tissue disorders. So they immediately go connective tissue disorders are also related to pulmonary fibrosis and other pulmonary disease.
So those are discussions and those are things that people are exploring as we speak, and we will see some of those data and that will guide our decisions in the future.
And maybe, Jeff, I would just add, if you look at where we are today, just to give you a sense of the breadth, we have over 110,000 prescriptions, which have been dispensed. There's now over 9,100 patients who have started therapy. And if you look, our overall compliance continues to be quite high. We are seeing a slow increasing in the rate of discontinuation, but frankly, it's generally in line with what are slightly better than what we're seeing with other PAH products.
And so we feel good about where that is. And then on the safety side, we continue to be very confident in the safety profile, and it's consistent with label. And I'd also point out now as you've seen across what we've reported with Hyperion as well as with Xenith and then looking back at Stellar and then what we've also brought forward in some of the long-term data from Soteria across all of those, the safety profile is very consistent. And so we feel very good about where we are with compliance, where we are with safety, everything is tracking as you would expect.
Our next question comes from Umer Raffat with Evercore. .
Rob, I'm trying to balance today the fact that you're laying out a $70 billion non-risk-adjusted revenue opportunity for the current pipeline as well as all the prior track record sort of $5 billion revenue opportunities acquired for about $10 billion or under versus the large deal that's been in the press lately. I'm just trying to balance it all.
Yes, Umer, I appreciate the question. Obviously, we don't comment or speculate on market rumors. If you look at our BD strategy and where we are, I would start by just pointing to the fact that as you highlight, with the $70 billion of commercial potential we've highlighted and the fact that, that's $20 billion better than where we were a year ago, I am very proud of the progress we're making, and it's why my confidence is so high.
And obviously, we still have more time to continue to do more, both in terms of advancing our early-stage pipeline, which we think can have impact in this area as well as adding additional assets through BD, which we've indicated, we are continuing to be very interested in doing.
If you look at where we're focused, it's where we've always said, which is for opportunities where we see significant scientific advancement addressing an unmet need aligned with our strategy and importantly, where we see value creation. When we see those things aligned, we move, but we've always done it with discipline. You've seen that across all the deals we've done, and we will continue to do so as we move forward. Obviously, looking in the area up to $15 billion is our sweet spot. But as we've also highlighted, for the right scientific deal, we'd go bigger but using the same methods, the same discipline, the same approach we've used across everything we've done to date.
Our next question comes from Chris Schott with JPMorgan.
Just on MK 3000, it's obviously a new mechanism, but also listed as 1 of your key near-term products for derisking that $70 billion. Can you just help us that stage a little bit in terms of what gives you such confidence in this asset? And how large of an opportunity you see assuming we get some positive data this year?
I'll let Al speak about how big the opportunity is, but diabetic macular edema and wet age-related, I'm sorry, AMD and DME are really important indications. And have important molecules out there. They are all based on vascular endothelial growth factor. This is the first pathway that is based on the genetics of vascular stability in the eye and we have the first agonistic antibody towards that.
So we're really interested in seeing whether this mechanism will work because it will be the first non vascular endothelial growth factor that's going to be driving to the indications of age-related macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema. Just historically, up to 40% individuals have suboptimal response to VEGF. We think that, that's an important opportunity for us. But I also want to just make sure that people recognize that even in patients who have responses to vascular endothelial growth factor, MK-3000 could also be part of the repertoire with which they're treated as well.
And maybe just to add, Chris, to some thoughts here on market potential. As you know, if you look at what you see with diabetic macular edema, there is about 1.6 million people with DME today in the United States. It's the leading cause of vision loss due to diabetes. And I'd add, you've got with wet AMD, an additional 1.5 million patients in the United States. So if you look across the total of that market, that's about a $15 billion market. And as Dean just pointed out, 30% to 40% of patients are only partially or not responsive at all to anti-VEGF therapy.
So the opportunity to bring a new mechanism into this space is quite meaningful. And the only thing I'd add is while you're speaking about MK 3000 in DME now, we are also studying it in wet AMD and RVO and importantly, we have NK-8748, which is the novel bispecific antibody that agonizes Tie2 while inhibiting VEGF. We're very excited about that. It's really the combination of both of those assets that why we believe this is a greater than $5 billion opportunity as we look forward. And I would say it's probably one of the more underappreciated areas, I think, from the Street and what this really can be.
Great. Thanks, Chris. We're going to try and squeeze in 1 more question, please, Shirley?
Our question comes from Daina Graybosch with Leerink Partners.
Thanks for the question. I'll finish with the SAC TMT 1. I wonder if you could update us on your biomarker strategy, given a TROP2 ADC competitor recently announced or changing some primary endpoints of Phase III to narrow and top-2 expressers. I know you guys are cooking something and will we see that in any of the Phase IIIs?
Yes. I would just kind of answered the question the way that I answered it a few years ago, which is we think that SAC TMT has an ability to be best-in-class but it's also important to put it in the right tumor types and to have the right strategy for -- in those tumor types. There will be tumor types where we do not believe that a biomarker will be needed. But we also believe that there are places where that biomarker will be needed, especially if you look at how good the comparator you have to go against.
So a lot of it is context dependent on the tumor, but also what other treatments are there and how high of a bar you have to beat to beat that comparator.
Great. Thank you, Dana, and thank you all for your time and attention this morning. If you have any follow-ups, please reach out to the IR team. Take care.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference. We thank you for your participation. At this time, you may disconnect your lines.
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Merck & Co. — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Merck & Co. — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: $16,4 Mrd (+5% YoY; +4% ex Wechselkurse)
- KEYTRUDA: $8,4 Mrd (+5%); US‑Timingeffekt ≈ −$200 Mio; KEYTRUDA QLEX Verkäufe $35 Mio, permanenter J‑Code erwartet Anfang April
- EPS: $2,04 (non‑GAAP)
- Bruttomarge: 79,7% (−1,1 Prozentpunkte)
- Tiergesundheit & Launches: Animal Health +6%; WINREVAIR $467 Mio; Otuver $178 Mio (Verona-Akquisition)
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Portfolio‑Transformation: Übergang zu einem breiteren Wachstumsset — >20 potenzielle neue Treiber, aktive Launches und bedeutende klinische Readouts 2026–2027.
- Pipeline‑Upside: Management nennt eine nicht risikoadjustierte kommerzielle Chance >$70 Mrd bis Mitte 2030er, $20 Mrd mehr als vor einem Jahr.
- Disziplin bei BD: gezielte Akquisitionen (Cidara, Verona) ergänzt interne Programme; Fokus auf wissenschaftlichen Fit und Wertschöpfung.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Umsatzprognose 2026: $65,5–67,0 Mrd (+1% bis +3%; FX trägt ~+1%-Punkt)
- Margen & Opex: Bruttomarge ~82%; Betriebsaufwand $35,9–36,9 Mrd, inklusive einmaliger Cidara‑Last ≈ $9 Mrd
- EPS‑Erwartung: $5,00–5,15 (Mittelpunkt $5,08); bereinigt ohne Cidara‑Aufwand wäre Mittelpunkts‑EPS ≈ $9,03
- Kapitalallokation & Risiken: Share‑Buybacks ≈ $3 Mrd; erwarteter Gegenwind ≈ $2,5 Mrd aus Generika, IRA und Vertragsrestrukturierungen
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- MK‑1406 / ANCHOR: Trial ist ereignisgetrieben; Nordhemisphäre vollrekrutiert, Southern‑Hemisphere‑Rekrutierung läuft; Management will Subpopulationsdaten vor finaler Entscheidungs‑/Kommunikationsplanung.
- KEYTRUDA‑IP & QX: Compound‑Patent konservativ für 2028 modelliert; zwei weitere Patente könnten bis Mai/Nov 2029 reichen; QX (SC/QLex) Adoption 30–40% bis 2028 erwartet.
- Glaubwürdigkeit des $70 Mrd‑Claims: Analysten fragten nach Derisking‑Pfad; Management betont zahlreiche erwartete Phase‑III/Readouts 2026–2027 und disziplinäres BD.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Kurzfristig moderate Guidance und relevante Einmalbelastungen (Cidara) sowie produktseitige Gegenwinde; langfristig setzt Merck stark auf Pipeline, mehrere potenzielle Blockbuster und gezielte Übernahmen. Wichtige Unsicherheiten bleiben: Patent‑Timing für KEYTRUDA, Ergebnisrisiken bei Schlüsselstudien und Integration/Einmalaufwand. Für Aktionäre bedeutet das: kurz- bis mittelfristig Volatilität, mittelfristig aber deutliches Upside, wenn klinische Readouts und BD‑Strategie wie erwartet materialisieren.
Merck & Co. — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Good afternoon, everybody. I'm Chris Schott at JPMorgan, and it's my pleasure to be introducing Merck today. From the company, we have CEO, Rob Davis; as well as Dean Li, President of Merck Research Labs. So Rob and Dean will say a lot to go through. Happy New Year, and looking forward to the presentation. Thank you.
Thanks, Chris. Appreciate it. All right. Good afternoon, everybody. I appreciate you spending some time with us this afternoon. Before I get started, just real quickly, I'd remind you that we do have forward-looking statements being made, and I'd point you to our language on our website, if you'd like more information about that.
If you look at where we are as Merck, I'm pleased to say we are in a moment where we're really starting to see our transformation underway. We've been executing on our strategy, and I can tell you, we're in a position now where I think we are well positioned for success, whether it's advancing our diverse and expansive late-stage pipeline. We now have 80 Phase III studies underway, we'll talk a little bit about some of those in a moment. We're commercially succeeding in launching the first wave of the next 20 growth drivers we have of the company. And we're augmenting that through business development.
The success and progress we've had to date now puts us in a position where we see visibility to more than $70 billion of commercial opportunity as we look out to the mid-2030s. And importantly, over the next 2 years, we're going to meaningfully, from a clinical perspective, derisk that opportunity, which we'll talk about. So as we sit here today, my confidence is high. It continues to grow. And we're really in a position to be set up for the next wave of success as we look at Merck going forward.
But before we look to longer term, maybe just take a moment and focus on 2025, where we have had many accomplishments. And I'll look both from a clinical and regulatory perspective, but maybe starting first with significant approvals. Obviously, we're excited that in the third quarter, we got approval of QLEX, which is our subcutaneous form of KEYTRUDA, an administration under the skin that we can do in as little as 1 minute. Very important innovation for patients. And in ENFLONSIA, which is our infant RSV vaccine. It's the only vaccine that you can basically administer regardless of weight in a single dose. Something we're very excited about.
In our Animal Health business, where we don't talk as much, we're actually also seeing a wave of new product introductions, one of which we're very excited about, NUMELVI, which we just recently had approved in Europe, and we will get approval early in 2026 in the United States for a next-generation JAK inhibitor for atopic dermatitis for animals. This is a huge market in the animal health space and one we are very excited about what the next generation product we're bringing and one that we will continue to focus on as we move forward.
We also are delivering key positive data readouts. I'd focus you on enlicitide. During 2025, we read out 3 clinical studies for enlicitide. This is our oral PCSK9, a drug we're very excited about. Given the fact that this is an oral pill, simple to take, we're going to make it simple to access at affordable prices, we really have the opportunity to democratize care for patients dealing with the need to lower LDL-C, and it's something that we're very focused on as an opportunity not only in the United States but globally.
In the infectious disease space, we have important data readouts in both HIV PrEP as well as in multiple readouts in treatment with islatravir, which is really becoming, we believe, the next anchor medicine in HIV. And I'm happy to say we're actually going to have this April, hopefully, the first approval with islatravir doravirine in our once-daily treatment coming in April. So that will be the first of many to come.
We also are seeing important late-phase clinical trial initiations. I would highlight just a few of them for you, starting with sac-TMT. You might know this is our TROP2 antibody drug conjugate. We now have this antibody drug conjugate in 16 Phase III studies, 11 of which have the potential to be first in class. And this is going to be a very important area as we look forward.
In immunology with Tulisokibart, we have an important Phase IIb studies underway now looking at different opportunities beyond where we started in ulcerative glycan Crohn's, we now have 6 studies, 4 that are in Phase II, 2 that are in Phase III.
In ophthalmology, we have important studies underway now with MK3000 as well as MK8748, and I'll get more into that in a little bit, and we can jump to it on stage. But importantly, we're about ready to start anytime. I think it's imminent, Dean, a new Phase III study for MK8748, which would be a meaningful acceleration of that asset when we did the EyeBio deal.
In addition to what we're doing from a clinical perspective, we are also delivering successful new launches. We have a growing first wave of products, which are starting to contribute to the growth of the company. You can see those with WINREVAIR for pulmonary arterial hypertension, CAPVAXIVE, which is our PCV vaccine, ENFLONSIA for RSV. As I mentioned, we had QLEX, which we launched in the third quarter. And recently, we just closed and added ODIVER through the acquisition of Verona, which we brought in and we'll see the benefits of as we move into the fourth quarter, which is an important new drug in the area for patients with COPD. This is, in and of itself, a multibillion dollar opportunity we've added. So as we sit here today, we feel very good that we're starting to deliver proof points for our ability to commercially execute on the more than 20 growth drivers we have. This is just a small sampling of those, and we'll get into more of them in a moment. And importantly, we're starting to see a much more diverse and broad pipeline to drive that growth with these growth drivers as we look forward.
We've been doing business development to augment the strong pipeline we have internally with Verona, I just mentioned with Odiver, the first-in-class PDE3 PDE4 for treatment of patients facing COPD. This is the first new maintenance inhaled treatment in over 20 years in this space. It's off to a very strong start, and we're very excited about this opportunity.
And recently, we just closed on Cidara, which is -- you maybe know it is CD38. That's the way it was referred to under Cidara. We now call it MK1406. But this is a potential first-in-class, once-per-season agnostic antiviral in an important space to help high-risk patients facing the serious consequences of flu.
We have the deal we did with [indiscernible] for their oral small molecule Lp(a), and we are already looking at how can we combine this with enlicitide as a potential combination therapy for patients facing cardiovascular disease.
This all builds on the business development we've already been doing since 2021. We've now invested over $60 billion since 2021 in business development. You see the list of companies here. But importantly, we're not done. We have more to do. And I think we've shown a track record where we will move with discipline, and we will move with intention where we see scientific conviction behind an opportunity that aligns with value. We're going to continue to do that in the exact same way we've been doing it to date.
As you look at all of this, what this starts to pull together is the success we've had since 2021 in focusing on building out our pipeline. And I'm happy to say it's now becoming a reality. We have the most diverse pipeline in terms of both therapeutic areas and modalities. And I think legally, I have to say in recent history, but I would tell you it's probably at any time in Merck's history. And importantly, based on what we're seeing, we now have visibility, as I mentioned, to commercial opportunities based on that success through new growth drivers that will be more than double what KEYTRUDA will be at its peak sales based on consensus estimates in 2028.
Importantly, that $70 billion is $20 billion more than where we were this time last year due to what we've added to business development and our increasing confidence in some of our internal assets. And I would point out that while we talk about $70 billion by mid-2030s, we now believe we're going to achieve $50 billion by the early 2030s.
So the progress is significant. Our confidence is high. And probably the most important point, and I'll come to it in just a moment, we're going to have the opportunity to materially derisk a big portion of this over the next 2 years.
If you look at what makes up this $70 billion, we often get asked, what are the drivers? There are really 10 programs, 10 key programs that make up 70% of this $70 billion. If you look at them, all of them have blockbuster potential. We see them as multibillion-dollar opportunities. Nearly all of them are first-in-class molecules. Four of the 10 are either already launched or have positive Phase III data and the rest will have important Phase III readouts over the next 12 to 18 months. Two of them have received the commissioner's National prioritization voucher and that goes for enlicitide and our sac-TMT offering. So we have the opportunity to not only deliver a pipeline, but to continue to accelerate our ability to bring that forward. That's why we have the confidence I'm talking about.
If you look forward, in addition to the products we talked about which were either launched or about to launch with elicitide on the base, by the end of 2026, we will be in a position that we will have derisked clinically $35 billion of the $70 billion through positive Phase III readouts we would expect to see. We will cover substantially all of the $70 billion by the time we get to the end of 2027 through what we have with sac-TMT, MK1406 and our IDXD.
So as we sit here today, we feel very good about what we have. There's always more to do, but I'm really proud of the team. I'm proud of Dean and our commercial colleagues, our manufacturing colleagues. They have delivered. They continue to deliver and I have every confidence we will continue to do so.
As you look forward into 2026 through the remainder of this year, we have some really important data readouts. We have ezlotivir in combination with linacapivir in a Phase III study focused on once-weekly oral for the treatment of people with HIV. This has the potential to be the first weekly oral.
With MK3000, we have a new mechanism of action, the first new mechanism of action in this space in 20 years, aimed at diabetic macular edema. We see that coming forward with a Phase III in September of 2026. Importantly, this is well ahead of when we did the deal. We've significantly accelerated this program. I already mentioned to you that we also accelerated MK8748. It's why we have such confidence in our ability to have a meaningful impact in the ophthalmology space.
And then we have Tulisokibart, where we have the first of many studies coming, but this one is the Phase III ulcerative pruritus, which will read out in August of 2026.
As you look forward to 2027, for sac-TMT, I mentioned we have 16 Phase IIIs, 11 that are potentially first-in-class. We have multiple Phase III readouts coming in 2027. And I mentioned one of those will have the CNPV voucher. For MK1406, which is previously what we called the CD38, this is the long-acting antiviral where you got with Cidara, we expect to be in a situation to have the Phase III readout there with the primary completion date of January of 2027. And then for IDXD, which is our B7-H3 antibody drug conjugate, we'll have -- this is actually being studied across multiple different tumor types, but we'll have the first Phase III readout in a very important space in small cell lung cancer coming during the year, and then we'll see more coming after that. Small cell lung cancer continues to be an area where there's really a true unmet need, and we could have one of the first real meaningful opportunities to drive innovation in that space. So as we sit here today, I feel very good about the progress we've made, we have more to do. But as we sit here today, we're executing on our strategy. We have, I mentioned, over 20 growth drivers, the first wave already here among us. We have a catalyst-rich period over the next 18 to -- 12 to 18 months. And importantly, we're delivering on our purpose. We're delivering for patients. We're delivering for unmet needs. And ultimately, if we do that, we're delivering for our company and for you, our shareholders.
So I couldn't be more confident as I sit here today. It's why we continue to talk about KEYTRUDA as more the LOE as more of a hill than a cliff. And I'm quite confident that we will be in a position at a minimum to go through a very shallow period post the LOE returning in a few years to growth. But we aspire for more. We aspire to grow through it. And my confidence we'll be able to achieve that is high. We have more to do. We're not there yet. But with the actions we've already taken, the progress we've made and the execution we've demonstrated, I'm confident we eventually will be there, and that's my hope as we look forward to the future.
So with that, maybe I'll stop, and we can jump in for Q&A. Thank you.
Maybe just to kick off the question with that hill, not a cliff comment. I think you've described the KEYTRUDA LOE is something that's very manageable. We've obviously continually been building out this pipeline. Where we sit today, how confident are you that you can manage through this 2029 through early 2030 period without a meaningful degradation in the company's earnings.
Based on what I just showed you, we're highly confident. The fact that we now have that $70 billion and that we're going to be able to be in a situation by the time we get to the end of 2027 to have clinically derisked almost all of that is very important. And I should point out, and I didn't say it in the prepared remarks, that does not include animal health. Our Animal Health business right now is one we think will double, more than double from 2024 through the mid-2030s on a story very similar. It's about a wave of new product innovation coming in that space. It doesn't include our early Phase I pipeline. We have a large number of important Phase I, late Phase I products or Phase I programs that will be reading out starting this year. It's going to accelerate as we go into '27. And many of those could potentially have impact in this window of time. And you'll see more of that as those move into Phase II, we'll start to talk more about those. And then also, it precludes further business development.
So when I look at all of those elements, my confidence that we will see it be a shallow fall followed by growth in a few years is quite high. And I would point out, we modeled it on a risk-adjusted basis. That's assuming we achieve standard industry probabilities of technical success. If you actually look at what we've done over the last 3 to 5 years, we've actually done much better than that. So if you can assume we are more successful, that is on the upside from what we're communicating.
Excellent. On the $70 billion target, I know it's stepped up $20 billion over the last year. How much of that is external? How much of that's internal. Any directional color you can provide?
Yes. It's roughly -- if you look at the change we made, it's about half from the external opportunities we see and about half from internal.
Right. And as we go through the next year or 2 in terms of derisking, what are the most important events you'd point to that help derisk that $70 billion charge?
Well, I would go back to the 6 programs I showed coming. And I think those are going to -- those are really -- if you think about it, of those 10 key programs, we focused on 10 key products which will make up 70% of the $70 billion. By the time you get to the end of '27, they all will have been meaningfully derisked. So you can pick which one. It's hard to pick which is your favorite. You don't want to tell your children, which one you love the best. I love them all equally.
On business development, obviously, 2025 was a very busy year for the company. There's been some headlines heading into this year. Can you just taking a step back. With the $70 billion that you now feel you have in-house, what's the appetite for further deals? And kind of what's the parameters you're looking at as you consider putting into capital?
I appreciate the question. Now if you look at where we are, and I tried to address it a little bit in the prepared remarks, but we have been very disciplined. Since Dean and I took over in 2021, it's -- we followed a very consistent pattern. It always begins with what is the science? It always comes down to, is the conviction of my scientific teams there behind the opportunity? What is the unmet need that we're addressing? And if there is high conviction and excitement among my scientists, there's an unmet need we can address. And I see it aligning with our strategy. And overall, we see a path to create value. I think we've moved -- we're showing we're willing to move fairly quickly and decisively. And we've done it ahead of data. We've done it after data. It all comes down to that conviction. And so that is the model we've been following. It will continue to be the model we've been following. The areas of focus continue to be the same: oncology, cardiometabolic, now cardiopulmonary. You can kind of look at both of those spaces. Immunology. And then beyond that, it's more around areas of probably opportunistic focus. But really, those 3 tend to be the sweet spot of what we're looking at.
From a phase of development, we're open from Phase I through to Phase III. Obviously, as we move closer to the LOE, we've been more focused in the later stages. And you've seen that the deals we've been doing have been either Phase II, Phase III or in some cases, commercialized assets. We'll continue to focus that. As I think about the periods of time, there's now through 2028, there's -- 28 -- they're through 2032, 2035, if you will, and then 2035 and beyond. Everything we do looks at how do we impact each of those periods of time. So we don't look at trying to drive revenue for any one window. It's how can I bring science that brings commercial opportunity, but then it's complementary and builds a spun to our sustainable base for long-term growth.
If you look from a dollar perspective, we've been in that looking in that up to $15 billion range has been kind of where we've been looking. But we've been very clear, we're willing to go larger than that, but we only will do so following the exact same logic and discipline. And if we see an opportunity that brings the science where we see value, we'll move, we have the capacity, I think, to do pretty much anything we would want to do, but we will be disciplined. And in the end, while I feel very good about where we are, I still aspire to grow through KEYTRUDA. And that's starting to become within potentially our reach. We need to keep executing. We need to stay focused. And so we want to do more. We're going to continue to be disciplined. I don't feel that we have to do something, but we're going to do it if it's a smart thing to do, it's the right thing to do. And that's been where we have been and that's where we'll continue to operate.
And just remind us on capacity, kind of where the company is today, where you'd be comfortable taking elaborate.
Yes. So I would say we're multi-tens of billions of dollars. Is that the way I got to look at my CFO. I would spend more, he won't let me, it's just the way it goes. But in the multi tens of billions, I would look at differently and say, we are not limited from a balance sheet. It's more where do we see strategic opportunity.
Okay. Excellent. Maybe pivoting to some specific products, oncology. TROP2 seems like a very interesting one, one that to me feels very underappreciated by investors. Can you just talk about your aspirations for your program? I know you've got a huge Phase III set of studies running at this point. And when you kind of dig into those studies, which as the ones you're most excited about?
Yes. So our vision of sac-TMT or our TROP2 ADC is that it will be a workhorse ADC. And we have 16 Phase IIIs, and we say 11 of them are in indications that other people haven't moved in, many of them are, for example, in GI. But I would also emphasize that we have a great collaboration with Kelun. And they've shown China data in where some people say the top 2 are crowded, which is lung and breast. And that data looks compelling and differentiated. So we're going to places that no one is there or will be first, 11 out of 16. But in the places where it's tight, one can look at the data from Kelen and potentially extrapolate to us and say, that's a differentiated. And you ask yourself, why is it differentiated? It's one thing to say TROP2 and the antibody, but ADCs are linkers and payloads. And some are too loose, some are too tight. And maybe as ours is just right.
I like that one. In terms of the time lines of these reading out, is it possible we see more data in '26 from some of these programs?
I think there's PCD dates in '27, but this is oncology. It's event and there's always chances for interim analysis and earlier than that. And we're also excited by the fact that the administration also recognizes the possibility of this being an important asset and giving us CNPV so that if we do have data turnover, our ability to get it to patients even faster is there.
Great. And of the -- I think you said 11 of these are novel, correct me if I'm wrong, which are the ones there that you're most excited about?
I would say, endometrial, many of the ones in the GYN space. And it's a place where it's -- we have the potential being first-mover advantage. But I should also say that in "the crowded space" like lung and breast, we have seen pretty differentiated data from Kelun. And so if that flips over that can get me very excited as well. Yes. So this isn't just about the novel.
Yes. It might be worth just also commenting on. we recently went from 15 to 16 because we initiated new study in combination with QLEX. So as we think about what we're going to have is our next -- is our life cycle planning for how do we continue to bring value for patients longer term, we are already looking at how can you combine with QLEX as an opportunity that brings advantage to patients, brings combinations with better outcomes and also is one that we think we feel very good about.
Actually, on QLEX maybe just an update of how that roll out as..
Yes. Yes. So as I said, we received approval at the end -- I think it was October, end of Q3 of last year. It's early. Obviously, we're still just through the fourth quarter. I would say we're on track, but importantly, our confidence that we can achieve that 30% to 40% adoption in the next 18 to 24 months continues to be quite high. As we've pointed out in the past, for the first 6 months, while we're waiting for the final J code, it will be a little bit slower, but then we do expect to ramp to that 30% to 40% in the United States. And as you know, this is primarily where we see the highest rates of adoption coming will be in monotherapy or in combinations with oral agents like LYNPARZA, like WELIREG, as an example. But we do -- while we see those as the areas where we see most adoption, and I should stress that would also include where we have many of the early-stage indications. We now have 11 early-stage indications, what 5 with overall survival. But it also, we do think we'll have adoption into the space in patients who are on IV. We just think it will be less in that space.
So you're only just thinking in terms of what a tail could look like on KEYTRUDA when we can consider that 30% or 40% opportunity?
Yes. So if you look at where we are, our goal is in 18 to 24 months to have 30% to 40% adopted. That would put us out about the period of time depending on what happens with the LOE to be in a situation that we have that at the time that we lose exclusivity. Our intention is to price to ensure we can maintain share and maximize that tail as long as possible. So we're looking much more at the value under the curve as opposed to trying to do something where you take a short window of time to optimize value and then have it fall off a cliff, if you will. We've not given specific guidance for how we see that, but I do think it will be a meaningful tail that we can maintain through time.
Great. Just going to one of your required assets from last year, Cidara. Can you just talk a little bit about how you see this fitting into the flu landscape? And how big of an opportunity this could be come from Merck?
Yes. Maybe Dean can start on the clinical side, and I can speak to the commercial piece.
Yes, I really like this asset. I mean, it's essentially an antiviral that we know works. And it's conjugated not as an ADC, but conjugated to an Fc. So that all of a sudden, you can give it one time and you can protect someone for the whole season. And as everyone knows, those people who are immunocompromised or those people who are, let's say, on KEYTRUDA or on Tulisokibart or sotatercept or Odivir, they need extra protection than the normal vaccine can give you. So it just fits perfectly with the story in our pipeline and the patients that we want to treat.
One of the other things that I think is important is it's one time that you give it, it's strain agnostic. It's going to cover you for the whole season. But I think the other sort of thing that -- I don't know if you call it a tailwind or whatever. But with the pressure on vaccination, I cannot foresee flu vaccination increasing in this country over the next 3 years. I would imagine that if we're hopeful it stays the same, there's a chance that it comes down. And so I think this product is really important but it's also really important in a timely manner as well.
Yes. Maybe just to give you a sense from a commercial opportunity. And I think, obviously, we're all living this right now with what is one of the worst flu seasons we've seen and what you often forget is if you're immunocompromised, if you're otherwise have comorbidities that puts you at high risk, if you're over 65, this is a serious situation. 70% to 80% of hospitalizations are with people over 65, 90% of deaths from flu are in that over-65 category. So while we have the vaccines, and I would tell you, we believe probably 70% to 80% of that high-risk population or immunocompromised population are being vaccinated, the vaccines, while effective, are not, let's face it, they're not as effective as you would like. We actually show much more effectiveness with the antiviral than just with the vaccine. And so the opportunity to protect that population is important. We're talking about 110 million people. 85 million who are high risk or immunocompromised, 25 million in that over-65 range rate. So just going after that population, which is where we're starting is a huge opportunity. Obviously, our ability to potentially expand beyond that, we're looking at for many reasons that Dean was highlighting, but that alone is a significant opportunity. We're going to go there first. But we're looking at this as a greater than $5 billion opportunity for us as we look forward. And I think this could be one of those assets that still surprise us to the upside.
And then potential for an interim analysis here just given the flu season that we're seeing?
Yes. So we -- it's been completed for the Northern Hemisphere. We are going to open it up to the Southern Hemisphere. So those of you who are sitting next to someone from the Northeast right now, if you want to be in the trial, you need to go to the Southern Hemisphere. But there will be times for interim analysis. We won't quite announce that. But there is a possibility that we'll see an interim analysis. But right now, we are going to open in the Southern Hemisphere. We need those patients. We need a broad patient population to be able to have as robust of a label as possible.
Okay. Pivoting over to the oral PCSK9. Can you talk a little bit about just time lines here, how we should think about this? And then as we approach the launch, how you think about patient segments that could kind of adopt this one quickly?
Why don't you go ahead, Dean?
Yes. I mean, so you've seen some of the data at American Heart Association. I think the data -- the way that we've said it is we want to make the most potent LDL-cholesterol-lowering pill ever made and that we wanted to have a pill that essentially looked like the antibodies. And I think the data at AHA, 2 of the 3 studies were shown. A third one will also be shown later on this year. So we basically have a biological appeal. When you look at the clinical data, it's 97% compliance. And if you look at the adverse effects, the adverse effect looks no different than placebo. So this is something that we could really democratize the PCSK9. Our intention is to file and then we are also like sac-TMT, has the opportunity to do with the CNPV. And that's a relatively new program, and so we're working with the government. And so that time line means that we probably have the opportunity to potentially launch maybe early next year, but maybe even this year, and we're excited by that.
The last thing I would just say is there was also data presented at American Heart Association that's really important. So many of us here have an LDL of 90 and 100, and our doctor said it's just fine. But there was data shown that if you take an antibody to PCSK9 and you lower that LDL from 90 to 100 to 45, I think they had an improvement in cardiovascular outcomes of 20%, 25%. This emphasizes why it's important to democratize PCSK9.
You might comment on that we act in exactly the same way as...
Yes. I mean so this molecule is truly interfering with PCSK9 in a very similar epitope as where those antibodies. So this is truly an antibody in a pot.
Ask about just -- you talked about a multibillion-dollar opportunity here. Should we expect a gradual ramp like we saw with Repatha or just given some of the dynamics of how the injectable markets played out, could this be a little different?
Well, I would say I think we will see a faster ramp than Repatha. What will drive though, what ramp we see is really -- we're looking at really 3 factors that we're focused on. Obviously, it starts with our ability to educate and activate patients and physicians. I would say this is an area where it's been a little bit sticky, if you will. You haven't seen much change. And so we're going to have to educate people and get them willing to think differently about layering therapies in a way that maybe they haven't thought about, both as the physicians as well as the patients. So doing that education and activation will be important.
One of the things we think that can help drive that desire is if we can get the guidelines changed. We've done a lot of work. I know others in the space are doing work in this space, and Dean can speak to it. But with all the data that came out through the [ Vacelli ] study through what we're doing and others, I think there's a renewed discussion about what should be how you think about managing your cholesterol and what is good enough, but what actually can you do to be even better, especially if you're a high risk.
So we're going to continue to push for those guideline modifications. And if we can achieve that, which I actually have pretty good confidence, we will. I think that's going to be an important step. And then the third element of it is we've talked about, we're going to affordably price this to drive access. That still will require the payers, the insurance companies to adopt this. We think they will, but we're going to have to do work. So those 3 levers will determine the speed of the ramp. But maybe just -- so the long-term opportunity, by the way, is meaningful. But how fast it happens will depend on that. But maybe just to size this real quickly.
If you look about it today, there's 80 million people across U.S., Europe and Japan who are on lipid-lowering therapies and not a goal. In the United States, it's 30 million. And that's both primary and secondary prevention. And it's roughly -- it's not exactly, but it's close enough, half primary prevention, half secondary. So our intention is to go first for the secondary prevention market. And then from there, over time, broaden into the primary prevention market. So we see an opportunity, both initially to go with a layered approach on [indiscernible] to try to do the lipid lowering therapy. But over time, we have a broadening strategy not to mention then we have a combination strategy. If you go on clintrials.gov, we already have underway a combination study in combination with rosuvastatin, so a single pill, both the PCSK9 and the statin. And as I mentioned, while we haven't started the studies, we are looking at kicking off with our LP(a) small molecule, a combination of our PCSK9 with that. So Dean talks about you got to be first or best and then you got to think about what's next. So we have a life cycle management strategy here to make this a meaningful long-term opportunity beyond that first wave.
Maybe last one on the pipeline for me. You highlighted immunology, ophthalmology, HIV in terms of important readouts over the next year or 2. Can you just talk about the strength of Merck's pipeline in these settings? And how do you think about Merck competing in some of these spaces, where there maybe is a bit more entrenched competition?
Yes. Well, I firmly believe and Dr. Perlmutter used to always say when he was at Merck, great products make great franchises, great franchises don't make great products. And I think the key of what that really the message of that is it starts with if you have a product that is truly differentiated, that is the most important aspect. And part of the confidence across everything we've laid out, we think we have that, and especially in immunology and what we have with Tulisokibart with our TL1A. So across immunology and ophthalmology, I think we are there. So that's the most important piece. But beyond that, we've spent a lot of time focusing on how do we make sure we build out both in terms of dollars of investment. You remember, we did the multiyear optimization where we were looking to take out $3 billion of spend. That was not because we wanted to lower our spend. In fact, we're going to be accelerating our spend but redirecting that $3 billion into these programs. So we are very focused to make sure we invest behind them fully, which we're doing and that we have the right capabilities. We spent all of last year going bottoms up and then top down, outside in to look at this with myself and the strategy team kind of doing the top-down outside in and then looking at what we would build based on the way the peers have operated and then comparing that to the plans the teams were building. And that's informed where we saw we needed investments and capabilities. We're already addressing those gaps. We've brought in a lot of external talent where we needed to augment. So I actually feel very good that we're positioned to succeed across these commercially.
Great. Maybe time for one last question here. Just on GARDASIL. I know this is a big area of focus for the last 1.5 years or so. Latest update in terms of how you're thinking about trajectory of that one given what you're seeing ex U.S., some of the recent CDC changes, et cetera?
Well, I would start by saying GARDASIL is -- continues to be a very important product, first and foremost, for patients. It is truly an anticancer vaccine. And it's a tragedy that everyone is unvaccinated because it can prevent cervical cancer, it can prevent many head and neck cancers, other cancers. So I start there. But putting aside the patient aspect, if you think about it from a business perspective, it remains important for the company. But as we've already said in the past, it is no longer a key growth driver for the company. As we came into the year where we had communicated previously as we expected modest growth with this, obviously, the thing that has changed, as we recently heard from the CDC that are now putting out a recommendation to move to a single dose in the United States. I can talk about that in just a second. But we'll have to deal with that. But as you look in total at this, as we think about 2026, I would say we see it as a stable product. We're going to continue to invest for the growth. Any growth that's there is modest, and we need to see how this single dose plays out.
As it relates to that specifically, if you look at the market in the United States. So for the first 9 months, just to size this, in the first 9 months, we've sold $2.2 billion of GARDASIL in the U.S. 2/3 of that is in the pediatric adolescent space. And that's really the only piece we're talking about. That's where the CDC changes going to single dose effect, not the adult population 1/3. So that $2.2 billion, if I annualize that for simple math, let's just say $2.7 billion, that's not a guidance number, by the way. It just divides easily by 3. You should look at it and you say, of that then you can think of $1.8 billion being the total for that adolescence. Today, average completion rates are only 1.6 doses. In worst case, it will go to 1. We don't actually think it goes to 1 because importantly, what the FDA and the CDC maintain is they maintain shared decision making with your physicians. And all of the insurance coverage, both from a commercial and from the government have been maintained. So if you want the 2 dose per the label, you can get it, it will be reimbursed, and we believe pediatricians largely will continue to prescribe and recommend that. So we're going somewhere from 1.6 to something between 1, maybe 1.2, 1.3. Needless to say, it is not significant for us in 2026. It's manageable overall. I'm more concerned about it from a health policy perspective than I am, frankly, as a financial matter for the company.
Well, I think we're out of time. Congrats on all of...
Thank you very much. Thank you all.
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Merck & Co. — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
Merck & Co. — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
📊 Kernbotschaft
- Überblick: Merck betont eine strategische Transformation: ~80 Phase‑III‑Studien, erste Welle von ~20 Wachstumstreibern und eine geschätzte kommerzielle Chance von ~70 Mrd. USD bis Mitte der 2030er. Management erwartet, binnen 24 Monaten einen großen Teil dieser Chancen klinisch zu ent‑riskieren; KEYTRUDA‑Patentverlust (LOE) soll ein „Hügel“, kein „Abgrund“ werden.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Pipeline & BD: Seit 2021 >60 Mrd. USD für Zukäufe; Fokus auf Onkologie, Kardiometabolik, Immunologie, Ophthalmologie und Tiergesundheit.
- Wichtige Assets: sac‑TMT (TROP2‑ADC, 16 Phase‑III), enlicitide (orale PCSK9), MK1406 (Cidara‑Asset, langwirksamer Grippe‑Antiviral), QLEX (subkutanes KEYTRUDA), ENFLONSIA (Säuglings‑RSV‑Vakzine), Odiver (COPD‑Inhalator).
- Kommerz & Preis: Oral‑PCSK9 soll erschwinglich gepreist werden; GARDASIL bleibt wichtig, aber kein Hauptwachstumstreiber mehr.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Updates: Ziel von ~70 Mrd. USD ist um 20 Mrd. gegenüber Vorjahr gestiegen; Management sieht 50 Mrd. bereits bis Anfang der 2030er erreichbar und plant, ~35 Mrd. bis Ende 2026 klinisch zu ent‑riskieren.
- Zeitpläne: MK3000 Phase‑III Sept 2026; MK8748 Phase‑III „imminent“; MK1406 PCD Jan 2027; mehrere sac‑TMT‑Readouts in 2027; enlicitide steht kurz vor Zulassung/Launch.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- KEYTRUDA‑LOE: Wie tief fällt das Ergebnis 2029–2030? Management bleibt zuversichtlich, stützt sich auf Risiko‑adjustierte Modelle, nennt aber keine konkreten EPS‑Zahlen.
- BD‑Appetit: Bereitschaft zu Deals bis ~15 Mrd. USD (oder größer bei hoher strategischer Passung); Half‑external/half‑internal Ursache für das +20 Mrd. Ziel.
- Kommerzielle Risiken: Fragen zu Markteintritts‑Tempo für orale PCSK9 (Leitlinien, Erstattung, Arzt‑/Patienten‑Education) und zur Größenordnung des Cidara‑Marktes (>5 Mrd. erwähnt); Management gab Zeitachsen, hielt sich bei konkreten Umsatzprojektionen zurück.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit für Aktionäre: Merck präsentiert eine deutlich diversifizierte, BD‑verstärkte Pipeline mit zahlreichen nahen Katalysatoren; der Weg zu ~70 Mrd. USD Chancen ist plausibel, aber abhängig von Studienergebnissen, Zulassungen und Erstattung. Kurzfristig bleibt Unsicherheit durch LOE‑Timing und Marktdynamik bestehen; mittelfristig signifikantes Upside bei erfolgreichen Readouts.
Merck & Co. — Citi Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Second day of the Citi Global Healthcare Conference. So my name is Geoff Meacham, I'm the senior biopharma analyst. Mary-Kate Davis with me as well from my team here on stage. So we're thrilled to have Merck in this session, and we have Eliav Barr, who is SVP, Head of Global Clinical Development and CMO; and then Chirfi Guindo, Chief Marketing Officer. So Eliav, Chirfi, good to see you guys.
See you as well. Thank you for having us.
Thank you.
Thanks for the time. So maybe we'll start with the -- first with the Cidara deal, right? So maybe just give us some kind of context for the thought process that went into this. I mean, I'm assuming it's more than just kind of economics and to try to manage the LOE. This is a real growth opportunity. It's a real unmet need. It's very different in terms of the platform technology. I want to get kind of your insights into that.
Well, maybe I can start with the medical side, and then we can -- I'll ask Chirfi to speak about the commercial opportunity. Influenza is a pretty bad disease, estimated around 110 million people in a season will get -- will have a medically attended illness. And so I think it's a pretty bad disease. The current flu vaccines are reasonable, but not -- but oftentimes, they're off and they're not particularly as effective. Moreover, they tend not to be effective in those individuals who are most likely to get sick from flu, the immunocompromised, those with comorbidities and so on, where immune response may not be quite as robust.
And then, of course, year-to-year, there's strain variability. What's great about CD388 is that it's a drug that has -- the strain agnostic is able to be efficacious across populations, 76% efficacy in the dose chosen for Phase III, and that's better than even the best of the flu vaccines. And as I mentioned, being able to use it in a variety of different kinds of patients.
So I think there's a high unmet medical need. It fits perfectly into our concepts around prophylaxis. We have both chemo prophylaxis and of course, vaccines in our pipeline. We have got a lot of other drugs in respiratory that are important and so there's a lot of overlap there. And I think the commercial opportunity is great, and I'll ask Chirfi to speak to that.
No, no, absolutely. I mean the fact that you are going to be able to protect, especially those high-risk individuals and immunocompromised individuals who often do not respond well to the traditional flu vaccine, it really is a big deal. And so as you think about it commercially, by the time we come to market towards the end of the decade, we anticipate that there will be about 110 million people in the United States who would be candidates for this treatment.
Once again, it's not a vaccine. It's an antiviral that you take once at the beginning of the season, and then you give full protection to the population for the whole duration of the season, right, irrespective of the strain of influenza that you're talking about. And so that is really the attractiveness from a public health standpoint of CD388. So from the 110 million that we anticipate, about 85 million fit the category of high-risk or immunocompromised.
These are people cancer survivors, people who live with COPD, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, PAH and so on and people who just have a weak immune response. And then you have about 25 million or so who are older adults who are not immunocompromised or who do not have those comorbid conditions that we talked about. So that is the pool of individuals that we anticipate coming into being candidates for protection with CD388.
So very, very attractive. Just to -- a couple more numbers that I could give you for context. In the United States last year, there were 1.6 million hospitalizations due to influenza, right, in the last season. And this season is panning out to be a tough one as well. So if you can provide protection to those individuals at high risk, I think the value proposition will be really, really compelling. So we look forward to really commercializing this. And we've announced greater than $5 billion commercial opportunity starting at the end of the decade and escalating into the early 2030s. So a really meaningful opportunity.
I guess let me follow up to that, Chirfi. I think when you -- you can see the differentiation, the fact that it's not a vaccine, it's an antiviral. I guess the biggest uncertainty I would imagine would be the payer context, right? So you'll have to have, obviously, Phase III data, you'll have to have maybe pharmacoeconomic data that shows -- but is the -- maybe the commercial approach to go after the highest risk patients for -- that may have not gotten a vaccine anyway to try to make payers sort of understand the differential value proposition?
Yes. I'll provide a couple of insights on this, how we're looking at this. First of all, in the Phase III program, we would have people who have been vaccinated and people who have not been vaccinated, right? So in terms of launch, in terms of commercial approach, we would consider the unvaccinated or the previously vaccinated as candidates equally, provided they're high risk, right? So that's really, really important.
Cidara did some payer research. We had opportunity to review some of that in diligence and so forth. And in that research, payers in the U.S., again, indicated that a price point between $500 and $600 per dose would actually present good value if you're talking about those high-risk individuals that I indicated. And so we will do our own research when we come to it once we progress. But the value proposition, we believe, is going to be compelling.
Yes. and then, Eliav, just a final one on this program. When you look at the development path, you mean potential for an interim analysis. So there -- is there anything that you can build into the pivotal program that could maybe help you with the market opportunity, the downstream, just to try to further separate out the differentiation.
So the population of the ANCHOR study is greater than 65-year-old patients. So it's in the right target population. The question -- obviously, the way it works in clinical trials is that you're powered towards your primary endpoints, which obviously is medically attended flu with symptoms and so on. But there will be opportunities for things like hospitalizations. As Chirfi noted, there's a lot of these and then measures of severity even more than that.
I think the influenza program is kind of similar to that. We had medically attended lower respiratory infections and then we had hospitalizations, ICU admissions and ultimately, those data were very important. So we want to make sure that the study is large enough to be able to have all those critical endpoints. And once we have access to the drug and the company, which we hope will be soon, we'll be able to take a look and make sure that the study is properly sized for longer-term outcomes -- not longer term, but more rare outcomes, it certainly is well designed for the outcomes that it's currently evaluating.
Okay. Thank you.
Great. I guess moving to another deal that you guys have closed this year, Verona. So that's recently closed and you're bringing in Ohtuvayre into your commercial portfolio for the treatment of COPD. Could you maybe talk about that opportunity and how you're looking at that product?
Yes. So first of all, we're really proud of the work. We're really pleased with the work that the Verona team has done, really impressive work in launching this -- developing the asset, first of all, Ohtuvayre and launching it in the United States. So far, the feedback has been excellent as far as we've been able to determine. And so the opportunity for is for us to really bring the commercial engine that we have as Merck to really scale the work -- the good work that Verona has started.
And so the feedback is excellent from customers. And we believe that there's a huge opportunity for us to apply this engine and to reach more patients and create the value. We've announced a significant opportunity in this space. And that's where I think the excitement is coming from. The feedback so far from the market research that we have conducted is excellent, and we believe that this is going to be a transformative agent.
So by the way, just to remind ourselves, the placement of Ohtuvayre in the GOLD guidelines is really quite favorable. And it's fairly broad across different kinds of COPD. It's the first kind of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory agent that I think -- and I think that's very important, particularly because as we all know, steroid inhalers predispose patients towards pneumonia and other fungal -- local fungal infections. So I think it has great opportunities. We're looking at it also for non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis. And so I think that there's enormous potential within the sphere of chronic pulmonary diseases to improve outcomes for patients.
From a commercial perspective, you guys will have a pretty substantial respiratory portfolio was Ohtuvayre, the incremental investment in commercial and marketing, was it sort of nominal in addition to what you're doing already in PAH? Or is it going to be a substantial sort of add-on to the commercial effort?
Yes. We certainly have an engine, right, that we can apply to scale and augment the good work that the Verona team has started to do. And so that is really the opportunity that we see. We have, obviously, digital capabilities. We are going to reinforce the MSL capabilities, the commercial capabilities more broadly. And so this is really going to be a nice opportunity for us to create value.
Yes. And let's move to WINREVAIR. So congrats on the CADENCE trial in left heart disease. So that's -- we did a session at the Cleveland Clinic this past April, and there was significant enthusiasm for this in terms of unmet need. Where do we kind of go from here when you think about the next steps into a Phase III? Is there a potential to -- is this a fileable trial? I know that's not usually the Merck way, but this clearly is a substantial trial in an unmet need.
Right. So first of all, we agree that the unmet need is substantial in this pre- and post-capillary pulmonary hypertension patients with HFpEF. It's a population that's enormously underserved. There's nothing there for them, and they have a pretty high mortality rate. The CADENCE trial was designed as a proof-of-concept study. It had a lot of measurements, both from the pressures and heart function point of view and other elements, which we'll share in due course.
But we are very happy that the PVR data were very clear. And associated with all the other data that we collected in the study, we think that there's a really good opportunity for patients. In the field now, there's really not much for patients. And I understand the enthusiasm that people might have for this to become some sort of filing study. The truth is it's a proof-of-concept trial, and the primary endpoint was not a filing endpoint. We'll talk to FDA about the design of Phase III trials. And more than -- and I think that that's something that we'll be doing, and we're going to start Phase III next year.
The field is -- it's an unknown area. It's an area that doesn't have regulatory guidance. So we'll have to figure out the best way to design the trial and go forward. I think that the other reason why we would anyway want to do a Phase III trial is from the payer point of view, they probably want to make sure that they're seeing the right kind of value to be able to gain and give access to patients. So my net-net is we'll look at the data. We'll have the presentation in 2026 at an important medical meeting. We'll allow people to -- we'll have a really good consultation with our -- all of our scientific leaders. We've already done that. We'll present FDA with the data and our plans, and we'll go from there.
Yes. It does seem like given -- we had Marty yesterday at a session that he's thinking about in terms of unmet need, there is maybe streamlined approaches. This seems like as good a candidate as any, but I guess you have to have the FDA discussion.
Yes. We get -- we present data and they present us with their ideas of see how enthusiastic they are. And again, I think that the studies are -- that the study was pretty clear and gives us an opportunity with -- to improve outcomes, not just in pulmonary, but also in cardiac function.
Maybe looking at the opportunity in PAH, you've presented a lot of data kind of building. Have you seen this translate into higher usage from physicians?
Pulmonary arterial hypertension. Yes, is a simple answer.
From a durability perspective, have there been -- has that been better than you thought when you initially did the Acceleron deal?
Yes. So the feedback has been tremendous, right? So WINREVAIR in PAH is meeting all of our high expectations, right? So -- what I would say is -- just give me a second here, just bring my thoughts together for a second here. In PAH, what we're experiencing really is the feedback has been tremendous, right? So the data is planning it out, and we're seeing continuous positive feedback from the overall community. So maybe, Eliav, you can provide that.
Sure. Yes. So I think if you look at it overall for the SOTERIA study, when you look at the durability of the response and now we have people several years out, the safety profile is pretty much the same. Efficacy remains very good, and patients are sticking on trial. The things that I think are moving the needle in the marketplace is that we've had some terrific guidelines placement. And we're also really interested in -- we're also seeing a lot of use both in people with 3 drugs, and now we're moving towards those in the background of 2 drugs.
Right now, with the 3 studies that we've shown, we've taken the spectrum from newly diagnosed patients all the way to those who are advanced and close to lung transplant or having to have hospice care. So I think we're -- we have all the data out there. And from an uptake point of view, things have been going very well.
Yes. What I would add is really that you have the triple. What we're seeing is certainly in the U.S., where we are really -- we have most experience so far, we're seeing really uptake in the triple segment of the population. We continue to be very encouraged by the adoption in that category. That represents about 1/3 of the patients. Another 1/3 is in the dual, the so-called dual category.
And so we're seeing now the opportunity with the new data we have is to begin to really have greater penetration in that dual category of patient population. But the feedback has been tremendous. And so the data will pan out. But the real-world experience continues to be very encouraging as we continue on the launch trajectory for WINREVAIR.
That's excellent. I guess how are you looking at the OUS opportunity for WINREVAIR as well?
Yes. So we just started in Japan, really, really encouraging start in the Japanese environment. And in Europe, we also have -- we're going through the reimbursement process from country to country. But the overall feedback is really consistent with what we've seen also in the U.S. in terms of physician and patient experience. And so we look forward to really realizing the value there as well. And so -- yes.
I guess the question in PAH is you want patients to be healthy enough that they're on drug, either on a doublet or a triplet for an extended period, but they also are probably not going to take an injectable if they're Class I, right, maybe some Class...
Well, I mean, I think it's important to understand that sotatercept has been showing that across the different segments of patients, whether you're newly diagnosed, that's HYPERION, whether you've been on drug for quite some time and have worsening mostly on 3 drugs, that's STELLAR or whether you're in a pretty advanced state, that ZENITH, that you have similar benefits in time to clinical worsening and in hard endpoints like hospitalization or death.
The point, I think the way people get on drug is on therapy is they usually take -- have the 2 generics together, right? So that's kind of the base point. And then the question is what's your next drug? What I think we've shown throughout the trial program and with incredible consistency regardless of where you are in the disease journey is that sotatercept improves hard outcomes, along with all the good stuff that happens when you can walk around more and have a better exercise tolerance.
So I think physicians now gotten used to the 3-drug regimen, the drug, how to administer, all the things that have to happen in a practice. And I think we'll move to the second -- to the 2-drug regimen. One thing that we will have next year that's going to be very important is the auto-injector. And these are -- that might say, it's not -- how sexy is that? It's very sexy if you're a patient that needs to fiddle around with the dosing regimen and now you can have at home kind of nice single shot.
So I think that's going to make it easier for patients. And I think what we've done both with guidelines and with the work that we have both with our commercial and medical affairs team is to help people just reduce the kind of barriers, some of them are artificial. Some of them are I don't know how to use it in my practice or how is it all going to work, all of that so that we can have adoption. And I think that's translated into the really nice trajectory that we've seen so far with the use. Yes.
Yes. And the convenience is a huge factor, especially with the prostacyclins and those can be a little clunky there.
Yes. Yes. And so I think this is a good -- and again, patients don't want to come into the hospital or into the office to get their injection. So once we have the auto-injector, I think we'll get a lot more ease of use.
Yes. So let's switch gears to the oral PCSK9 program and the injectable PCSK9s have had very good commercial success. I think it took a couple of years for them to get the price and volume and align with payers. So you do have, obviously, the dosing convenience. But as you think about the overall profile, how are you thinking about going into the market? Is it more switches? Is -- are there new patients that you think are particularly suited for an oral modality?
Yes. What I would say is just coming out of the AHA where the data was presented, I mean, really, the opportunity we have here really is to provide the full benefit of PCSK9 because so far, it's a great modality, but it has really not had the impact that one would have hoped. And I think the scientific community was so ecstatic when they saw our data with enlicitide presented. And the reason why they saw that is this is something that could finally reach more patients, and really make a difference in the lives of patients and so forth.
So the data is really compelling, when you think about the efficacy data as compared to the injectables. And so I like to simplify it as you're getting a robust effect, right? So 60% -- I would say 60%, 50%, 50%, 30%, just simplify the math for a moment, right? So you're getting the robust 60% LDL lowering, right? And so you're getting the 50% basically lowering of the other parameters, right? And then you get your -- finally, you get 30%, right? So you put it all together, the profile of enlicitide is going to be unmatched by any oral agents, right?
And so this is what's giving the community confidence or excitement rather that this is really going to be a game changer in the practice of cardiovascular medicine. And so we're talking about addressing the CV epidemic because now we are going to have a tool that is going to allow us to do just that going forward.
Yes.
So if you look at -- if you -- so the problem that the current cholesterol regime, so to speak, has is that the actual goals that people need to get to are not very easily achievable with statins. So the current situation with regard to things that people can access, which are pills, was that you just go ahead and start a statin. I think that with injectable PCSK9s, of course, the efficacy is terrific with regards to cholesterol lowering, but access has just been dismal when you think about the large number of patients who actually need these drugs.
And because of that, I don't think that there's been very much impetus for guidelines to be much more prescriptive and very specific about which LDL levels you need to get to, to reach your goal. Now with an oral medicine that's just very easy to use, very easy to prescribe, will be priced both for access and for value and have the same kind of mindset for the treating physicians who tends to be a general practitioner, nurse practitioner, et cetera, in a community center. Those guys can -- the ease of access will be very good.
And now there's going to be an impetus to be able to change guidelines to be more prescriptive. And I think that's where both ACC and AHA are looking to do at least is what scientific leaders have uniformly told us so that we can actually reach a -- focus people on reaching a goal, break the current inertia, which is I got you on a statin and I'm done with your LDL cholesterol. I'm not really thinking about it anymore.
But now focusing on what's the target, what's the goal? Statins will get you a certain part of the way there. Unfortunately, they can't get you all the way there. Now these days, we really want to have very low LDL cholesterol levels. So we think that having an oral PCSK9 that can be easily used doesn't create any adverse experience. There's no new drug-drug interactions and can be available without a lot of paperwork, will allow that movement. And hopefully, that will impact the rates of disease and death from cardiovascular disease. So we'll see.
Is it reasonable to assume, let's say, in the next couple of years, guidelines will evolve to everyone is on a statin and then you have sort of verticals of who needs a PCSK9 oral or injectable, who needs a CETP, who may need Lp(a)? Do you think -- I just don't know how it's going to all shake out.
I'll tell you the enemy -- so at this point in time, the enemy of being able to move things so that patients actually benefit is complexity. I think that the first position, the easiest one will be who -- what is the level of LDL cholesterol you need to get to? And my hope is that there's just going to be one number, but it's possible that they'll maybe have 2, the 2 numbers being those people who don't have clear evidence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but have risk factors and those people who already declared themselves, and that's something like 70 and 55. So all in all, if we can get that done, and that's simple, simple, and then we can do PCSK9.
Now the Lp(a) stuff is going to be very, very important as well. However, there's a lot of education that's going to be needed around that, especially like what's the right test to use to measure Lp(a), what level you need to get to. So I see that as being a slower uptake. Eventually, it's going to be very important. But I look at the LDL cholesterol as people understand what it is, but they really need to be forced to a goal. And if you can get that as a quality measure, then all of a sudden, physicians are actually thinking I need to get them to that goal, not I just need to put them on a statin.
Can you capture that in the label? I wasn't sure the regulatory kind of discussions are...
Well, we never -- we can't talk about -- we don't know what -- the label is up to the FDA to ultimately agree to. What we can say is what patients we studied in the clinical trials program, which included primary prevention patients and secondary prevention patients. So we anticipate that those kind of patients would be in the product circular. We don't know. That's something that FDA needs to opine on. Yes.
Okay. All right. So let's switch gears to the -- there's a lot to go over the vaccine space. So on GARDASIL, just sort of the one-stop question on that. I mean you guys have talked about recovery unlikely this year, maybe the end of next year, kind of give us a catch-up maybe on a global basis, like in 1 year's time, do you think you'll be -- have a lot of the headwinds behind you? Or do you think this is more of a longer-lasting?
Yes, we think that we have really reached a point where we are going to continue to drive modest growth going forward at this point. And obviously, the China situation is -- was a problem. But at this point in time, it represents less than 1% of the revenue. So on a going-forward basis, we are looking forward to continuing to drive modest single-digit growth going forward for GARDASIL. We still have work to do. We're proud of the work we've done really in providing protection around the world. So this is something that our company is extremely proud of, and that work must continue going forward.
For beyond GARDASIL, looking at your -- the rest of your vaccine portfolio and some of the newer launches, can you maybe talk about how those are going and your expectations there?
The respiratory...
Launches of CAPVAXIVE...
Yes, CAPVAXIVE, yes.
Oh, yes, CAPVAXIVE. Yes, so CAPVAXIVE is going really well. So it's meeting our high expectations. So really, we look forward to bringing it globally, right? So that's still early days from that perspective. Influenza is also early days. We are just in the starting phase in the United States. And both, we believe, are well-differentiated assets, and we look forward to really scaling and executing the launch as we go forward.
Let's switch gears again to immunology. Again, there's quick hits on everything. That's a good thing though because you guys have quite a diverse portfolio, so...
Yes, we do.
TL1A, so on the back of the Prometheus deal. So your first major readout could be next year...
Next year, yes, it is.
That's highly anticipated that I think consensus numbers for WINREVAIR were $1 billion at peak and maybe now it's like more than $5 billion. For this one, I guess, it has not really moved because we haven't seen a lot of new information. So help us maybe frame kind of how you're looking at this opportunity in terms of your investments, like just -- it does seem like you could go after a number of different immune indications pretty quickly.
So we have -- so first of all, the TL1A mechanism was attractive to us because it was both anti-inflammatory and antifibrotic. So it provides a dual point of action for diseases that have a lot of these problems. Of course, the whole field was discovered on the basis of inflammatory bowel disease, and that was where we went first. The UC data are going to be available. The induction study will be available next year and then induction maintenance thereafter.
And Crohn's disease will also be first in that. Aside from that, we've got about 4 other indications that I think are going to be very important, some of which will have Phase II readouts, which will tell the tail in the 2026 time frame. The first of these is systemic sclerosis-associated ILD. So this is interstitial lung disease caused by scleroderma. This is a mixed inflammatory fibrotic disease. It's a sweet spot for a drug like tulisokibart. The Phase II study is pretty large, large enough that I think we'll be able to see a good signal. That's going to come in the April time frame.
And then later on in the year, we'll have a study in hidradenitis suppurativa, HS, which is, again, in dermatologic disease, inflammatory and fibrotic that I think we will be able to see. We also have a trial in axial SpA and -- so spondyloarthropathy as well as rheumatoid arthritis and other indications that we're looking to start soon.
So we're taking a page from the success stories in the immunology space. HUMIRA had multiple, multiple indications and a lot of the other drugs, the same. Our focus is on inflammatory plus fibrosis. And I think we have the right readouts coming through that will be able to validate why the Prometheus acquisition was such a good thing. And then we've got, of course, other Prometheus drugs and Phase I on that I think will be -- also have an important role to play. Yes.
Is a basket approach though for [indiscernible] is that the -- is should -- is the best approach sort of to go linearly and have a Phase III and figure out the next trials? Or do you -- would you...
No, we're going to see -- so this is why we're doing a bunch of Phase IIs in parallel now. I mean I think that the key was to get ulcerative colitis and to get the base understanding of what the drug does by itself in ulcerative colitis and Crohn's. That's necessary, and it's necessary both from a biologic point of view, but also most importantly, to tell physicians, patients, payers and regulators what this drug's capability is.
We now have started with multiple Phase II studies. There will be more coming next year, and that's in the mono space. We're very interested in combination therapies. My -- I'm not an oncologist, but most of my time at Merck has been in oncology for a good reason. But we -- so we -- that's a world of combinations, and we need to be able to do that here as well. But it has to be rational combinations and I think once we read the induction data, then we'll start a whole bunch of other studies. So this is -- we're at the point of an inflection in the clinical trial field of broadening this drug up quite a bit. We see a lot of potential here.
And we can move to oncology. I can't leave with 5 minutes to go, it's the first question on KEYTRUDA. So let's talk about QLEX, so the subcu. I know early days for the launch, but give us some context for how you're thinking about the wave of patients that are more likely to go on this versus KEYTRUDA with the consideration, obviously, that biosimilars down the road are going to be eroding. Is it mostly preadjuvant like pre-metastatic kind of...
So obviously, QLEX is off to a really good start. We are really enthusiastic about the early feedback that we're getting here in the U.S. We just got the good news also from a European perspective on that formulation, KEYTRUDA subcu. So we believe that this will be really a good option for patients in the earlier stages of disease. And so we are gearing up for that. We have resourced the launch appropriately. For us, this is a launch, right? And so there's an opportunity here to impact earlier stages of cancer. So that's kind of how we are thinking about the opportunity.
Can you force that through -- with payers through discounting or rebates or whatever to try to maybe narrow the initial adoption? Or is that just how it's going to work out in the real world...
Well, at this stage you have -- at this stage where you have mono use, where you have combination use with -- in the earlier stages, this is where the adoption is anticipated initially. And so, so far, again, it's early days, we believe that KEYTRUDA QLEX is going to be adopted in that segment. What we've indicated is an adoption rate in the initial 18 to 24 months of about 30% to 40% of QLEX in the United States. And so obviously, the first 6 months might be slower because obviously, we have to get the whole reimbursement system going and adoption will then kick in with that sort of magnitude.
For oncology for the ADC, so I think you have a couple of ADCs that are going to turn the card over in 12 to 18 months from now. Talk a little bit about the funding of the TROP2. I wanted to get maybe your perspective on that.
Well, so we have -- so first of all, we are -- we think the TROP2 ADC is going to be sac-TMT, is a really differentiated molecule with a program that's really quite different from what has been used -- done for the other ADCs. So I think that's -- we have a lot, a lot of confidence in it. We're very pleased that Blackstone was able to -- saw the data and we're willing to plunk down quite a bit of money to help us. The reason -- what we need to be able to do is to -- as you see, we're just now talking about oncology. We've got this breadth of opportunity at [indiscernible]
A lot of things are moving in the right direction, knock on wood, no wood here. But anyway, so we're hoping that things are going to be -- are going to expand even further. We've got these acquisitions that now need to be fully funded. We've got launches that need to be fully funded. And so I think as a company, we were -- we wanted to make sure that the short-term P&L profile was appropriate for the expectations of shareholders. And so we thought this was going to be a really good deal.
They put $700 million against our R&D spend in 2026 in exchange for low to mid-single-digit royalties after the approval of -- after the readout and approval of sac-TMT for a particular study that's in triple-negative breast cancer.
So overall, we thought that the deal was really good, and it helps in ensuring that we're able to apply all of our resources to the extraordinary opportunities that we have. This is also in the context, of course, our multiyear optimization where the company has chosen that they're going to work to streamline and to focus attention on the things that really will move the needle on behalf of patients and therefore, the company. So I see this as a great opportunity from the R&D point of view from my shop, it gives me a lot of breathing room.
Is that approach to use Blackstone or others to help fund the development a good model for other ADCs in the pipeline?
Well, we -- the other ADCs are partnered, and so they're a little -- it's a little bit more complex. There are other -- and then there are some ADCs that are still within our group. I don't see this as a model that I'm going to use -- that we're going to use every time. But this particular opportunity because sac-TMT is such a large part of our spend and our future and what we believe in, we thought that this would be -- we're very, very confident in this program.
And so that's why we allowed them to look in and see what we thought. And I'm psyched that they actually really -- they agreed with us that this is a tremendous opportunity. I don't know that it's going to be something we do every time. But it's -- when the opportunity arose, it was a good one.
Awesome. Eliav, Chirfi, thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you for your time too.
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Merck & Co. — Citi Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
Merck & Co. — Citi Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Überblick: Merck nutzte die Citi Healthcare-Session, um Akquisitions- und Portfolio-Updates zu erklären: Fokus auf antivirale Prophylaxe (CD388), Ausbau der Atemwegs- und Kardiometabolik-Pipeline sowie Kommerzialisierung von kürzlich übernommenen Assets.
- Positionierung: Ziel ist, mit einmaliger saisonaler Prophylaxe und neuen oralen/injektablen Therapien breite klinische Bedürfnisse zu adressieren und zugleich Launch- und R&D-Investitionen effizient zu finanzieren.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- CD388 (Cidara): Ein strain‑agnostischer Influenza-Antiviral mit 76% Wirksamkeit im für Phase‑III gewählten Dosisbereich; gezielte Prophylaxe vor allem für Hochrisiko-Patienten.
- Ohtuvayre (Verona): COPD-Asset mit günstiger Einordnung in GOLD-Guidelines; Merck will kommerziell skalieren und vorhandene Vertriebskapazitäten nutzen.
- Portfolio & Finanzierung: Nutzung externer Finanzierungsmodelle (z. B. Blackstone-Deal für ein TROP2‑ADC) um Entwicklungsaufwand zu senken und P&L‑Profil zu glätten.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Marktgröße CD388: Merck nennt ~110 Mio. potenzielle Kandidaten in den USA; davon ~85 Mio. Hochrisiko und ~25 Mio. ältere Erwachsene; kommerzielles Potenzial >$5 Mrd. gegen Ende des Jahrzehnts.
- Preissignale: Payer-Research (aus Diligence) nennt $500–$600/Dosis als wertbasierten Referenzpunkt für Hochrisiko-Patienten.
- Entwicklungspläne: Phase‑III-Designs sollen Hospitalisierungs- und Schweregrad‑Endpunkte einschließen; Diskussionen mit der FDA (U.S. Food and Drug Administration) sind geplant.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Zielpopulation CD388: Analysten fragten nach Launch-Targeting und Payer‑Strategie; Management setzt initial auf Hochrisiko-Patienten, unabhängig vom Impfstatus.
- WINREVAIR (PAH): Nachfrage zur Einordnung der CADENCE-PoC-Daten und ob Phase‑III fileable ist; Merck: PoC war nicht als Filing-Endpoint angelegt, Phase‑III-Planung für 2027 mit FDA‑Konsultation.
- Orale PCSK9: Fragen zur Marktstrategie (Switch vs. neue Patienten) und Guideline-Änderungen; Merck erwartet vereinfachten Zugang, mögliche Revision klinischer Ziele und breitere Anwendung.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Präsentation betont Mercks Übergang von Portfolio‑Breite zu gezielten kommerziellen Starts und risikooptimierter Finanzierung. Für Aktionäre bedeutet das: potenziell große, neue Umsatzquellen (CD388, Ohtuvayre, orale PCSK9) bei zugleich kontrolliertem Kapitaleinsatz, aber signifikante Abhängigkeit von Phase‑III‑Ergebnissen, FDA‑Entscheidungen und Payer‑Zugängen.
Merck & Co. — Evercore 8th Annual Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
[Audio Gap]
Gave us rock-solid evidence that we can move on to Phase III. We think this is really going to be a -- we look forward to seeing the results being presented in upcoming meetings so that everyone can assess it. Our steering committee has been super happy about it, and we're going to head to Phase III in 2026.
Got it. So is this a launch which is post 2030?
I can't -- I don't know. And the reason why I don't -- I don't mean to not answer the question, it's just we have to figure out what the primary endpoint is going to be for Phase III, and that requires discussions with our steering committee, our regulatory agencies and so on.
I see. I see. Is it fair to say that there is a signal on time to clinical worsening?
We didn't -- we haven't disclosed other endpoints, but I would tell you that we're confident that we can move to Phase III.
Got it. When I did some checks on this, one of the feedbacks I was hearing quite often was part of the reason Phase II took so long to recruit was because the inclusion was very restrictive on the [indiscernible] units involved more than 4. Would Merck look to relax that?
One of the axioms that I've learned through bidder experience is don't get a Phase III signal that looks really good and then go ahead in Phase III and change everything, because that just doesn't make sense, particularly when you have a new biology like the story here. I actually think that the reason why enrollment took so long to begin with is because no one looks for these patients at present because there's nothing to give them.
And I recall back in my days with hepatitis C, the moment we started to see patients with -- to see the promise of the new therapies, everyone came out of the woodwork to be retested and be ready. I see this as a similar sort of thing. Once you start -- once you have something that you can offer to people, then people are testing, will test for it.
And for me, we saw that at the -- in the last months of enrollment. All of a sudden there is a lot of interest once they saw the results of ZENITH, in STELLAR. They said, hmm, maybe this is good for my patient. And all of a sudden, patients showed up. So we had a big acceleration of enrollment. So I see Phase III enrolling quickly even with this...
Got it. Chirfi, maybe just taking that enrollment to the commercial side, I guess one thing that confused me on CADENCE was it was about 160 patients, but it took 120 sites to deliver 160 patients. Does that form a very tough commercial uplift? Or do you think it will be very different once the data are out there?
Yes. So the CpcPH population we estimate to be roughly the same size as PAH. So you're thinking about -- you're looking at 50,000 to 60,000 in the United States. But as Eliav mentioned, the diagnosis rate is lower because physicians have not been looking for it. And so we think that, again, post-Phase III data, once people start to see the presentation next year of the Phase II, right, more physicians will be sensitized and look [indiscernible] patients. So we don't anticipate a different commercial model to what we have with PAH, and we will be able to execute this.
Got it. Your confidence on WINREVAIR sotatercept trajectory right now remains good. I know there were some questions a couple of quarters ago on whether rate of patient adds was slowing, but it sounds like things are pretty smooth. .
Absolutely. And then our confidence is growing because the data with ZENITH and HYPERION now, what you're seeing is, in the U.S., just to stick to the U.S. for a moment, the majority of our patients have come from the more severe PAH cases, right? So about 75% of those patients on WINREVAIR in the U.S. And so those are triple therapy patients. But we're seeing an increasing willingness by physicians to treat the less severe patients. And so the data from HYPERION, in particular, is giving confidence. So we are going to see a steady growth, 500 to 600 patients steady every month coming into treatment with WINREVAIR.
And then we're launching outside of the U.S. We're very encouraged by the early signals from Japan, and we're going through the reimbursement process, in Europe, you know that it takes longer typically. But the feedback has been tremendous across.
Fantastic. Which takes me then to another important launch from Merck next year, PCSK9. I think Peter would tell you, the Street has a lot of questions on this one in terms of is this a real launch or not. Obviously, the Merck opinion is very different than the Street opinion on this. So maybe this is a question first for you, Chirfi. I'm sure Rob has a number out there for you to deliver on this. But is the feedback you're hearing from AHA consistent with sort of the perception that the broader organization has?
We are not surprised by the feedback. I was at...
Which one. The investor feedback or?
AHA.
Doctor feedback. Okay.
Thanks for clarifying. I mean we're really excited about the opportunity [ of enlicitide]. I mean this is potentially a game changer, right? There's a cardiovascular epidemic going on, right? So despite all the tools that are available, the injectable PCSK9s have not really had the kind of impact that was anticipated, given how powerful they are really. The whole mechanism is just such an incredible. So to be able to deliver a PCSK9 antibody efficacy in a pill form, right, and I summarize it as 60, 50, 50 30, when you think about the efficacy of [ enlicitide]. 60% reduction in LDL cholesterol, 50% reduction in non-HDL cholesterol, 50% reduction in ApoB and 30% reduction in LPWA. I mean that's the profile that was presented at AHA. And that was really surprising to the scientific community. And so not to us, but to the scientific community certainly.
And then the AE profile, comparable to placebo. So think about that. And that's a really, really big deal. We think that we now have a tool that will allow us to democratize access, and so to really, really drive LDL lowering in the U.S. and around the world.
So I want to come back to access because I've been getting questions on it lately as well. But just before that, the feedback on food effect, feedback on sort of drug-drugs, you can't take multiple drugs together. Like how...
Yes. So no, thanks for the question. So drug-drug interaction does not appear to be...
Yes. Can you take other meds with it, like the blood thinners and all that?
So that's a big deal. That's a big deal.
No issues there.
That's a big deal. And then the food effect in the study, and Eliav can talk to it, but 97% of patients in the program were able to follow the regime. You take it in the morning, 30 minutes later you go about your breakfast, not an issue at all. And so again, the scientific community was ecstatic.
For us, what was really interesting was the lack of any -- it was kind of let's talk about how we're going to implement as opposed to worry about this sort of things. The lack of [indiscernible], lack of DDI, consistency of effect that was really exciting for people.
Got it. What -- Peter, I think there was a comment shared on the transcript recently, and I'm not sure if you could chime in as well, on access. There's this perception that you guys are looking to come in below where the current PCSK9 unbranded pricings are. I just want to make sure I understand exactly what you guys are doing.
Yes. We've not been that specific. We've just said we're going to price for access for broad access. And we've not been specific with respect to what that means in terms of gross or net prices.
I see.
We do not anticipate price to be a barrier. I mean we are going to price appropriately for value and for access. We really want to drive rapid access. I mean just to be clear, I mean, we are going to need guidelines to be updated, right? And so as you think about the models that we are working through internally, we're going to need to activate the inertia that exists in the space, I'm sure that guidelines are updated, so that more patients can benefit from the power of enlicitide.
And interestingly, the [ Visalia ] study results are, I think we're a major recipient of benefit of that, being able to show tremendous reduction in cardiovascular outcomes in patients who are higher -- or primary prevention patients is going to be very, very useful. It's the place where cholesterol management is done. And I think that that's going to be very useful for...
There's another oral cholesterol launch next year as well. Is that factoring into your expectations somewhere? Do both of these launches just do well, both new cholesterol offerings? I realize that's a different mechanism, but a lot of LDL reduction from New Amsterdam.
Yes. So I mean, obviously, as you said, it's a different mechanism of action. I think the excitement really is around oral PCSK9. It's such a powerful -- we believe we'll have the most powerful LDL-lowering oral agent either on the market or in development, period. So we'll be well differentiated.
Okay. Fantastic. Maybe perhaps then moving on to some of the other programs, I want to start to get into oncology a little bit. TROP2-ADC, your expectations in the EGFR mutant lung and HR-positive breast, especially in light of some of the underwhelming findings from the Gilead side in both those indications, just in lung broadly as well as HR-positive breast as well.
Sure. So ADCs are very unique. Each one of them is different. They're different in every element of the -- so with Gilead, of course, the antibody is the same, but we have a very different linker, we have a different dosing strategy, a very different development approach, et cetera. So I don't think you can read through positively or negatively from one to another.
We've chosen a very specific dosing strategy and a specific approach that leverages the reliable efficacy and the easy to detect and treat safety profile of sac-TMT. The idea here is to have a workhorse drug that's available for both the [ NCI cancer center ] and the community practitioner oncologist. That's why we have a broader spectrum of diseases that we're evaluating. That's why we're putting a lot of things with pembro. That's why we are very GYN forward, maintenance forward, et cetera. So I think that that -- all this is a very differentiated profile.
So I wouldn't read too much on what Gilead has done to address what we have in our pipeline. What I would though say...
But the payload doesn't matter in your opinion, lung setting?
We have -- our payload is really quite effective in lung. And how I know that, I know that because there's 2 studies now that are [ floridly ] nicely positive with [ Killen ] in China. The first is [ OptoTrope-4 ], which was actually presented and is published. And then very recently, [ Optiro 5 ], which was presented top line results by [ Kelun ] -- and to me, is a very significant -- that study is a very significant study because it's sac-TMT plus pembro.
And I think that these data really validate why we think sac-TMT is different. And the right -- that right sweet spot for patients with good activity, in some cases, biomarker-defined, a safety profile that's easily manageable, long durations of therapy, and again, it allows us to -- it will -- and settings where that benefit is not clouded by having to go up against platinum chemotherapy, which is really great. It's good chemotherapy, and on the background of pembro.
Fantastic. Fantastic. Is there a possibility that we get some sort of an interim look on your EGFR mutant lung study and/or perhaps even the HR-positive breast study next year?
So we don't share when -- we always have interim analysis in all of our studies. The PCD dates are the most -- are the ones that investors typically look at. We do have interim analyses, will be event driven, so I really can't say exactly when and where. But remember, we've got 15 Phase III studies that are ongoing, 10 of which are novel settings. They're all enrolling like nobody's business, which is always a leading indicator, for me, a leading indicator of enthusiasm. And so they'll come when they come.
Right. Fair to say there haven't been any interims passed on those, because it's too early for that.
It's early. We do things like futility, but that's not really an efficacy. Like those are easy-peasy ones.
Okay. Got it. But that would have been a big surprise if there was a futility.
Yes.
Okay. Eliav, I know I've talked about this with you a couple of years now. The BTK inhibitor. Lilly is on the market now. Merck is going to market at some point. I guess, when would that be? Could there be some sort of readout possible in '26? CLL?
Yes, what we've done with [ nemtubrutinib ] is gone for that long path that's going to just get us to the touch down earlier than everyone else. But what I mean by that is to take everything and put it on the frontline.
Okay. [indiscernible] the refractory.
We have refractory, but it's -- it will come right at the same time. The front line -- because that's where the action is, right? That's where patients will get benefit. You want to be able to give people a drug that you can use for long periods of time and you won't get mutations. So [ nativrutinib ] has got the highest barrier to resistance because it's got a little bit of other non-BTK activity. And what we've chosen to do is to take it right into the front line.
And unlike the other studies which is frontline plus, so not really front line, and not designed for the hard endpoints, we have a much larger study that's enrolled and now we are following patients up. And it's going to be mostly against [ dacalabrutinib], very little like ibrutinib. And so it's going to be a very straight up comparison.
So we'll see what happens. But I'm confident that [ nimta ] will be -- that we'll be able to see the results and be able to show benefit. If our hypothesis is right, we'll be able to demonstrate noninferiority and potentially superiority and lack of resistance. I think that's the key.
[ Purato ] have shown some data on what the resistant profile is. And we looked at our data and we saw that our drug would have been able to overcome resistances, where [ Puratos ] resistant, doesn't -- it remains -- I mean, it becomes inactive.
Got it. I guess how do you think this trial could differentiate over Lilly's [ partabrutinib ], 313?
Because it's straightforward first line. I mean it's not a -- and it's -- the endpoints are different. We start with noninferiority, but then we go to superiority and then we go to...
Could there be a clinical profile difference?
Yes, maybe. We'll see. That depends on the Phase III trial. I really can't -- I mean, we put all of our efforts into doing that with the idea that there would be a different clinical profile. We chose something a little dirtier because we thought that -- when I say a little dirtier, I mean a little more -- other receptors that it binds, tyrosine kinase inhibitors that it also inhibits, with the idea of having a little extra efficacy.
Now the trade-off is whether there's going to be a safety profile difference. We don't know. But the data looked pretty good so far in blinded fashion.
Got it. But just so I'm clear, the [ bruin ] 313 for [ partubrutinib], that was a clean first-line study, no?
Not exactly. It was a smaller study, it didn't have the long-term outcomes.
You mean on OS.
Yes. Right.
Got it. Excellent. So maybe moving on to a program everybody cares about a lot, which is PD-1 VEGF. What's the -- I guess, let me ask you this. If it shows what the other PD-1 VEGFs have shown, which is about a 50% to 60% response rate, given what we know on overall survival data for the rest of the programs, is Merck going right into some sort of Phase II registrational? Or is this going to be more slower than that?
So the challenge with PD-1 VEGF is to show that PFS translates to OS. It's the age-old question. We've had a little initial possibility in China. We'll see if that's really true. The issue with that is that the delta between the PFS hazard ratio and the OS hazard ratio was pretty gargantuan. Europe, something at 0.5, and then something like 0.78, which was kind of you under why. And so we have to wait and see. So for us, it's a disciplined approach.
We have MK-2010 that's from [ Lenovo]. It's very active. It looks good. ORR is a good marker for choosing dose, but it's not -- doesn't -- won't tell you if you're going to ultimately improve overall survival. And that's where the discipline comes in. And you'll see some of those a propos of sacTMT, it'd be very interesting for investors to look when [ Kelun ] finally presents the results of [ Optitro 05 ] to compare that to [ HARMONY II ] and ask the question, how does that -- how do the 2 compare? And what does that mean?
And so -- but we're interested in PD-1 VEGF, and we're interested in it in a disciplined way. And I think it's -- we have to say the proof is in the pudding, and not fall into the pitfall that we fell in. Because I can tell you, it's me, I was the one that invested in [ pembro-lenvaad], had a success rate that wouldn't get me anywhere near the big leagues.
So it sounds like you're much more guarded on PD-1 VEGFs this year than...
No, no. Just -- yes.
Has it always been like that, or do you feel like that even more after...
It's always been that way, but...
You're more open about it now.
Just I feel like I'm waiting all the time. It's -- no. No not quite.
Can I ask you a controversial question then?
Yes.
There's an IO-IO combo, which had a second interim OS of 0.81. And we know PD-1 VEGFs have second interim OS of 0.78. That first IO-IO of 0.81 was PD-1 [ TIGIT ] and the 0.78 is PD-1 VEGF. But the perception from the Street is very different between those 2 combos. I guess, how do you think about that?
Beware.
Okay. Okay. And let me take it to another extreme then. Is it possible that these PD-1 VEGFs are just a high-dose PD-1?
Possible, but they -- well, not quite because they also have the AEs profile of VEGF, some...
But my point is, is the efficacy simply the higher PD-1 driving adverse...
I'd ask the other question -- a little different question. I'd say, if you take KEYTRUDA and you add Avastin, and then you compare it to PD-1 VEGF, is there any difference in efficacy? That would be an interesting question.
Because the concept is that by somehow having it on the same molecule, you've done something really biologically different. There is a daisy-chain concept that people are talking about. There's the increased internalization. There's the being able to intensify the immune modulation, or something of that nature. And yet there's been studies that have looked at PD-1 and VEGF, and you see PFS benefit. We just don't see much of an OS benefit, is all.
Got it. So it sounds like you want to see a definitive OS signal before you commit any significant resources here.
We're going to commit it in a stage way. I'm not -- I don't want to talk through all the different if-thens. Some of it has to do with the drug, some of it has to do with the drug plus other drugs that we have in our pipeline.
Got it. And Eliav, could you remind me the trial that Lenovo was running, was, I think, 200-plus patients, but it got cut into half right ahead of their sale, what happened there?
Because we took out the drugs that were -- the combos with drugs that they -- with drugs that we didn't buy from them. There are arms with other Lenovo products, and then so -- and then we didn't need that. And so -- and we're going to globalize after this trial.
Got it. Do you have a U.S. IND on this drug?
Not yet, but it's coming.
Okay. And why the delay? Because it sounds like there's enough data to warrant it.
Because it's -- we've got a lot of stuff that we're able to do in China. Right now, our -- we have a pretty vast footprint there, and Phase I data, hopefully, the U.S. will change its point of view, make Phase I easier in the United States. But China is easy to work with.
Got it. So this is a question for Chirfi then. If the Summit [ Akeso ] programs have an overall survival of, let's say, 0.84 final OS, do you think that type of profile warrants a potential KEYTRUDA life cycle management within Merck where you could do a big switch over to an internal program? Is that to breach threshold enough to do that?
It's very difficult to comment. I mean you have to look at specific tumor types. You have to look at the standard of care per tumor type. And really, the bar has been set in each one of those. I mean that's what will drive adoption ultimately. So it's difficult to give you...
Okay. So it's -- but like let's say lung in particular, if there's like a 0.84 hazard ratio, could a Merck's in-house PD-1 VEGF effectively replace KEYTRUDA in lung with that type of hazard ratio? Or is that not enough? .
I would -- again, I would reserve my answer on this one. I would not...
So the base case plan for the company is not to sort of plan some sort of switch internally to an incremental program?
Yes. Not a wholesale switch. This would have to be really tumor dependent.
I see. Peter, I think you were going to say something on this?
No.
Okay. Okay. Great. One more on an IND topic we discussed last year, the oral GLP from China. I feel like that's been in the preclinical for a while. It looks like there wasn't enough preclinical done on the Chinese side before it was brought in. So I'm just curious...
Hold on. It's coming.
Okay. All right. I always get a sense sometimes when I listen to Dean that the interest is much more on making acyclic peptide, which is a true sort of oral synthetic peptide rather than a small molecule. So this may not be the top priority for all GLPs. Is that true or...
No, I don't think that that's necessarily true. I think what Dean is talking about is the power of macrocyclics to be able to have antibody-like effects like what we've seen with [ enlicitide]. I think he's really excited about the technology. Now we wouldn't have bought MK-4082 if we weren't interested in MK-4082.
Got it. I want to transition to ophthalmology franchise, and then I want to talk about immunology as well. John Reed is in the audience, so we'll talk about J&J pipeline. Competitive feedback. But let me start with EyeBio for a quick second. Chirfi, how big an indication is that? And with 2 shots in the eye, like can you just frame that for us?
Yes. So we're really excited about the EyeBio acquisition, and the program is advancing really, really rapidly, which as Eliav mentioned earlier, is always a sign of enthusiasm in the community when you are enrolling very rapidly.
So just for context, obviously, anti-VEGFs are the standard of care in DME as well as wet AMD. But we have -- the insights we're getting from the community is that up to 40% of patients are really not well controlled or not responding at all to anti-VEGFs standard of care. So there is an unmet medical need here. And so there's a need for new MOAs.
And so this is what really the EyeBio acquisition affords us. MK-3000 is a [indiscernible] agonist, a new MOA. And then you have Tiespectus, which is a bispecific of type 2 and VEGF. And so the combination of those 2 really will address this high unmet medical need that I just talked about. And...
But docs are comfortable with 2 separate shots in the DME setting?
So there is a trend in this community towards personalizing the treatment, right? So this is, as you do your programs, as you do your studies, you typically have your more frequent injections. And then over time, we've seen that with all the retinal disease, all the launches in retina over the past number of years, over time, with additional data, the frequency of administration goes down in the real world. So the same will happen here for MK-3000 and tiespectus.
At the end of the day, it's about the efficacy. It's about the new MOA that we're bringing to market. And really, really exciting.
Is this a multibillion opportunity?
Totally. Yes.
Just real quickly. We're talking about 1 injection. We're not talking about...
No, the VEGF still happen, no?
No. The [indiscernible] is being administered separately as monotherapy.
As monotherapy?
And these are naive as well?
Naives and people who have failed.
I see. So there's no concurrent VEGF injection?
There's like a couple of a small arm of patients. But I think the -- for people who might benefit from VEGF, that's where tiespectus are [indiscernible]. It's only going to be 1 shot at a time.
Got it. Eliav, when I looked at the prior data, I think that was the [ AMIRON ] study, the confidence intervals looked very, very wide. And I wondered, is that just like very high dispersion around what different patients were doing? Or was that just like very tiny and...
It's a small n thing. I think that the results were actually pretty consistent. The CSD results were quite consistent across the board and over time in that 12-week study. Remember, it's just 12-week study, it's not a 1-year study, where eventually people who are slower responders eventually get there. So no, we're not worried about that at all. And both the [ Brunello ] trial is nearing completion and [ Barolo ] afterwards. So I think we'll have good results and good data on [indiscernible].
Okay. So it was not like patients with low CSDs did better and -- it was fairly consistent.
It was fairly consistent across the board.
Got it. What about the -- and I've been burned by this on a couple of companies I cover in the retina space. But can you speak to intraocular inflammation, vasculitis?
Nothing yet.
That community is very intense, even on 1 case. So nothing -- no observations?
Not yet.
Okay. Got it.
I mean clinical studies go on.
Got it. What about rescue criteria, how does that work in the setting?
So the protocol [indiscernible] criteria for people, they have recommendations for different kinds of progressions that occur both in terms of what they see in the eye and then drops in letters. It's at the end of the day up to the physician to figure out what she or he wants to do with that patient. But they do have some rescue events -- some rescue methodology that's available. I don't know what the numbers look like simply because it's blinded.
Got it. Peter, would you remind us the timing on this readout for next year?
Ophthalmology is toward the end of next year, the first trial, right?
Yes. That's DME.
Yes.
That's going to be the Brunello trial.
DME. And the Tiespectus is the year after, correct?
Phase II Tiespectus will be next year as well.
Phase II Tiespectus next year. Okay. Makes sense. Okay. Great. Perhaps we can just keep moving here. And maybe just a quick reminder, what about AMD? Is that a consideration for Merck as you went into retina?
Wet AMD? Very much.
So that's with the Tiespectus only, not with the first...
We're doing the 2.
Oh, is that right?
Yes.
So what's going to happen with the VEGF injection there then on AMD? Will that be concurrent? Or how is that going to...
No. So the way -- so DME is a good [indiscernible] because it's a slower progressive disease. The data look good, then we'll go on to AMD.
Okay. So AMD study is still monotherapy. .
With [ wind ], yes. And the VEGF Tie2 is it's -- it should be -- that's going to be the first indication.
And it's a large category, as you know, Umer. So we are going to study both assets in both indications.
Is there a very high interest from the retina community on a new mechanism? Are you hearing that?
Absolutely.
There's a -- look, the VEGF is really important, and it's worked very well, but there's a lot of people who are failing.
I mean 40% is a big number, right?
Okay. So the first commercial positioning is VEGF failures for the launch in DME, and then you perhaps pursue that in AMD -- even though that's not what the trial is...
I think that it makes sense if I were a doctor.
And Umer, I was just going to add, thank you for asking about ophthalmology. We've called it out as one of the areas in our pipeline that is underappreciated along with HIV and just the overall breadth and depth of the pipeline, including oncology. But we've gotten a little bit more attention on ophthalmology recently, but it's a good discussion to have.
Got it. So again, late next year, I think you said for the readout of the Phase III.
Yes. September, I think, '26 is the primary completion date. And the Tiespectus Phase II is April of '26. .
Outstanding. Okay, great. Maybe just you happen to mention HIV. I want to move on to immunology in just a second. But on HIV, the monthly prep obviously looks the idea of a pill once monthly for PrEP looks very interesting. But I have noticed at least sort of going through the prior presentation, there were a couple of cases of CD4 drops, which I wonder if that was the Cmax issue. Could you speak to that?
Yes, it's not a Cmax issue. I mean this was drops within the -- within very tight criteria that FDA asked us to use. There was no clinically significant issues. The FDA has kind of allowed us to move forward now.
So yes, there were -- what happens is that you have these people who come up with way high CD4 counts, and that's -- they're probably -- you just measure them in some -- I don't know, for some reason. And then it goes down from top end of normo to neuro.
Got it. Okay. Makes a lot of means.
But no, there were no clinically meaningful [indiscernible].
Umer, on that note, I think the excitement around our HIV pipeline is really the opportunity to establish a new anchor treatment with islatravir, which is really a first in a new class of NRTTIs. For years, the field has been looking for one because, right now, it's integrase that is the anchor, right, of treatment. And so as patients get older, you get concerned about long-term effects, especially cardiometabolic issues associated with integrase inhibitors. And so finally, now there is the potential to have a new anchor around islatravir for both treatment as well as PrEP, to your question. So really, really exciting.
Right. But Chirfi, I guess this is one molecule I've always had some amount of confusion on. Because of that legacy Gilead trial where islatravir was probably driving some of the CD4 drop problems. I think you guys lowered the dose since then. But wouldn't some of those legacy issues carry over commercially? Like how would clinicians perceive that?
So we've -- I mean the data is so clean. I mean you've seen that this is the switch data. And then we've announced the naive data just in the past week or 2. Let's wait and see what the label says at the end of the day, but we're confident that the profile is going to be a very, very compelling one.
Right. Would you remind us, Eliav, what was the dose when the Gilead combo was being studied, what's the dose now? .
Well, so we -- it was 0.75 Q-day and 20 milligrams Q-week. And now we're at 0.25 Q-day. We're not doing a Q-week for islatravir -- I mean -- sorry, Q-week for islatravir is 2 milligrams, and then it was 60 milligrams for Q month islatravir, but we're using [ 85 27 ]. So Q day was 0.75 down to 0.25, Q week was 20 down to 2. The problem was...
So the 20 down to 2 is really where you brought the Cmax way down. .
Yes. I mean the issue was -- so the issue was we wanted to have something that was so very super forgiving that you could like forget for a couple of weeks and be covered. We were a little picky.
Okay. Got it. So okay. Now I do want to be clear though, on 85 27, which is sort of the mainstay for a lot of the future combinations as well, there is a grade 4 -- sorry, there's a Grade 1 CD4 drop, but you're saying the thresholds are not as clean?
I mean -- yes. No, it's fine. It's going to be -- the reduction is -- this was a reduction and then it went back up afterwards. So I mean, it's -- these patients -- none of this is worrisome to us, wasn't worrisome to FDA. Didn't have any issues for the community. But look, we'll see what Phase III...
Umer, you said that 85 27 is the mainstay of the future combinations. I don't know what you mean by that.
Sorry. No, sorry, I was [indiscernible] PrEP -- for PrEP.
Islatravir is the foundational for the combination.
Again, as I mentioned, the Grade 1 results were, as I said, minor. And again, it went back up after -- in the next measurement.
Got it. Okay. So let's transition to immunology. And I guess my first question is really -- and this is not because there's J&J in the audience. But my question really is there's a perception that Merck doesn't have the type of commercial infrastructure from a rebates perspective in immunology that J&J, AbbVie, Sanofi have. And does that curtail Merck's ability to launch TL1A and/or continue to build it out?
Well, this is a new MOA, right? So one thing that we know about the space, and we learned a lot from J&J from our collaboration in Europe over many years. I was head of the Netherlands for a number of years for Merck, or MSD as it's called there, where we have the J&J collaboration with REMICADE, SIMPONI and did a great job there. It was the #1 drug in the industry at that stage for a number of years. So we've learned a lot through that collaboration.
But coming back to the U.S., we believe the opportunity to bring a first in a new class of TL1A that has both anti-inflammatory and antifibrotic benefit will be very, very meaningful, especially in IBD where you have a recycling of patients typically, right, through MOA after MOA. And a number of patients, a great number of patients never achieve remission. So they do need this new approach.
And so we think that the commercial case is going to be very compelling. And we're not really concerned about some of those contracting barriers that you referenced, because of the unique MOA and the benefit that this will bring to patients.
And what I will also add is we're so enthusiastic about tulisokibart that we're not limiting ourselves to IBD, right? So we have the 2 Phase III programs ongoing that Eliav and the team are driving. We have 4 Phase II programs, in addition, right, in [indiscernible] and derm indications. So we're thinking big around tulisokibart. So this is why we've announced $5 billion plus. I should have mentioned also in the case of HIV, $5 billion plus opportunity. So there's a series of $5 billion-plus commercial opportunity for a number of these new categories that we're really, really excited about.
Got it. On the UC trial, what's the efficacy expectation, Eliav, you want to hit for that $5 billion plus?
No, it has to be differentiating. Look, you have -- we have the Phase II results that showed a delta of pretty substantive -- '26. And so I think...
Do you want to hit that at least? .
We want to be able to -- the study will be successful if it will be successful. But I think being in the mid-20s would be -- would make it an important addition.
But placebo rates are going up, I feel in general in UC.
Well, I mean when you go from Phase II to Phase III, you can, I mean, there's some studies -- and this is true, by the way, across immunology. If you don't choose the right patients and you're not careful about patient selection, you end up with individuals who are -- have very mild disease and given the fact that the disease goes up and down, you have placebo rates.
We've done a really good job. One of the things -- you're right, we're new in -- we're reentering immunology from the MRL side. But what we did is we had an on-block reception of the people that did a lot of AbbVie's drugs had moved them down to Merck. So there's a lot of...
R&D or commercial?
R&D. And commercial.
Yes, we have some commercial as well. We've hired a few from J&J as well.
All right. .
We basically have an AbbVie UC crew that is on the show for us.
And on the non-UC indication, what's your expectation on the HS trial? I believe that's next year. Should we comp it versus what a TNF does? Or should we really comp it versus the indisc with IL-17? .
You have to do it against [indiscernible] do it against IL-17. I mean that's the new standard. You can't do something if...
Does Merck have any visibility on either the HS trial or the SSCI lead trial as of right now on the TL1A?
It's blinded, so no.
Blinded. Yes. .
Time will tell.
Okay. Excellent. Excellent. And which brings me to the last point. A lot of the other immunology players are very quickly moving to combinations now going forward. Because Merck is focusing on sort of new mechanism, I guess, how do you balance that from a combination perspective? Do you need partners? How does the immunology build-out look like?
Yes. So we do think combinations are going to have to be done rationally. And here, I think harkening back to the oncology experiences, getting the right combination is important. One of the things, TL1A, because it's a new MOA is to understand the Phase III results and be able to build on that basis. So we're interested in combinations. There are generic drugs that are available out there, maybe partnerships that we do. We also have drugs in our Phase I pipeline that may be of interest. And so...
Monospecific drugs.
And we'll be able to think about combinations and see how that goes.
As you think about bispecifics? There's a lot of Chinese bispecifics available, for example, in Merck [indiscernible] in China.
Sure. I mean I think you can look at that. I mean again, the one thing that I -- so this is not an immunology specific thing. I'm just -- this is how I -- some of my concerns about bispecifics as a general principle is that there may be great on efficacy. But you have an AE event that is related to one of the arms, and you can't just chop it off and say, "Oh, we're going to stop that arm." You either stop the whole thing or you live with the AE.
So we have to be careful about that. It's easier to develop because it's a single product, you don't have to do contribution of components. But at the same time, it reduces your degrees of freedom to pull back if you have a problem that's related to a particular MOA. That said, we always look at we have a very active BD arm in China, and if there's something interesting...
Got it. I guess, Eliav, from your seat, what's the overall conversation like with Rob and the rest of the team internally on whether enough exists now to manage through KEYTRUDA or more still needs to be done?
I think, look, from my point of view, we're always looking for good science and for good data and good products. Our perspective is longer term than what's been 2, 3, 4 years, 5 years from now. I've been at Merck for 30 years, so my horizon is a little longer than others. I want to be -- I want the next -- I want to -- when I go to Happy Acres retirement park here in Florida, my hope is that I will have left Merck in a good position for the next 30 years.
On that point, Rob has been clear that even post the Cidara acquisition, we're still on the hunt for great science to bolster the pipeline and bolster the long-term commercial opportunity we think we can achieve. I guess what's exciting is we've highlighted over $50 billion of commercial opportunity by the mid-30s from the existing pipeline. We've only added to that this year with Verona and now with Cidara, and the pipeline is advancing, and we're starting to see a lot of derisking events. And 2026 sets up in a very exciting way. You talked about immunology, we have a readout in ulcerative colitis late next year. You talked about ophthalmology readout in September. And then back to islatravir in HIV, the islatravir, lenacapavir once-weekly treatment trials readout early in the year. So it's -- everything is starting to derisk and there's a lot more visibility to this opportunity we've been talking about now for a couple of years.
Peter, remind us again, KEYTRUDA LOE, what are you guys -- what's the latest you guys are seeing?
Yes. So the composition of matter patent for KEYTRUDA will expire towards the end December 2028. There are a couple of additional patents we've identified, it's in our 10-K, that extend out to I believe it's May and November of 2029. One is a manufacturing patent, one is a method of use patent in oncology, which we will defend and we'll have to see how that -- what the outcome of that is. But the potential is it could extend into -- well into 2029.
Got it. And Chirfi, from your perspective, any switch over to KEYTRUDA subcu? Does that sort of dampen the slope down, or not necessarily?
Well, what I can tell you is that the feedback so far is very positive for QLEX, right? And it's still early days in the U.S. and we just received the approval in Europe last week for subcu KEYTRUDA. And so we are confirming what we have said, which is that over a period of 18 to 24 months, you're looking at a 30% to 40% adoption rate of QLEX. And this is a -- this is an injection that you administer in less than a minute, right, for the Q3 week dose, and less than 2 minutes for 6-week dose. It's really, really convenient for both patients.
But also it helps really the institutions manage their flow and their resources got it. So we are really excited about the opportunity to provide that value. And then we will be competitive, right? So we intend to -- we've priced it at parity with KEYTRUDA IV, as you know. And beyond the LOE period, we do intend to compete and make sure that we maintain broad access to QLEX.
Yes. And the LOE on QLEX extends out to 2039. So we have a long period of time where we can have exclusivity.
Got it. Excellent. Maybe just in the last few seconds. Number one, Verona, without a DPI, do you think it's still competitive? And then also GARDASIL single dose, do you expect any impact from...
Who knows?
Yes. Well, we've been clear that FDA -- today's FDA has made it clear that the current evidentiary standards are insufficient for label change. What happens with ACIP depends on ACIP, but I think they have other fish to fry at this...
I think we can do another 50 minutes on today's FDA.
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Merck & Co. — Evercore 8th Annual Healthcare Conference
Merck & Co. — Evercore 8th Annual Healthcare Conference
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kernbotschaft: Management signalisiert gezieltes Vorantreiben mehrerer Programme in registrierungsnahe Phasen (Phase‑III‑Start geplant für 2026), hohe Zuversicht in oralen PCSK9‑Daten (starke LDL‑Senkung, Placebo‑ähnliches Sicherheitsprofil) sowie nachhaltiges Wachstum von WINREVAIR; PD‑1/VEGF‑Programme bleiben datengesteuert und vorsichtig.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- PCSK9 (enlicitide): Präsentierte Daten zeigen ~60% LDL‑Reduktion, ~50% non‑HDL/ApoB, ~30% Lp(a) mit vergleichbarem Nebenwirkungsprofil zu Placebo; Management plant „Preis für Zugang“ (keine Nettozahlen genannt) und erwartet Guideline‑Updates für breitere Adoption.
- WINREVAIR: Management sieht stabile Zuwächse (angegeben ~500–600 neue Patienten/Monat in den USA), frühe Erfolge in Japan; kommerzielle Struktur soll PAH‑Modellen folgen.
- Ophthalmologie: EyeBio‑Assets (MK‑3000, bispezifisches Tiespectus) adressieren DME/AMD; Brunello Primärabschluss Sept. 2026, Tiespectus Phase II Apr. 2026.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Transkript nennt konkrete Phase‑III‑Planung für 2026; orale PCSK9 zeigt geringe Drug‑Drug‑Interaktion und überschaubaren Food‑Effekt (97% konnten Dosierungsregime einhalten). KEYTRUDA‑Kompositionspatent läuft Ende Dez. 2028, ergänzende Patente bis 2029.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Rekrutierung vs. Design: Diskussion, ob enge Einschlusskriterien Phase‑II‑Verzögerung erklärt; Merck will positive Signale nicht durch Designänderungen gefährden, rechnet aber nach Bekanntwerden der Daten mit schnellerer Rekrutierung.
- Kommerz & Access: Fragen zu Preispositionierung und Erstattungsrisiken für orale PCSK9; Antwort: „Preis für Zugang“, Details offen, Guidelines‑Updates erwartet.
- PD‑1/VEGF & OS‑Risiko: Analysten hinterfragen Übersetzbarkeit von PFS auf OS; Management verlangt überzeugende OS‑Signale vor großem Ressourcen‑Commitment. Weitere Punkte: islatravir‑Dosisreduktion adressiert CD4‑Bedenken; FDA sah keine klinisch relevanten Probleme.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Event unterstreicht Mercks Pipeline‑Fokus: mehrere potenzielle Umsatztreiber (orale PCSK9, WINREVAIR, Ophthalmologie, TL1A) werden aktiv derisked. Die Strategie ist datengetrieben und diszipliniert—das reduziert binary‑Risiken, macht die Aktie aber abhängig von anstehenden Phase‑III/OS‑Readouts und von Klarheit zu Preis/Access bei Schlüsselstarts.
Merck & Co. — Jefferies London Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Last day. This has been a great conference. I can't tell you how grateful I am for everyone for joining. My name is Akash Tewari. I'm a pharma and biotech analyst here at Jefferies. We have Merck also goes by the LES MSD when they're not on that side of the Atlantic. Peter, why don't I hand it off to you for some intro remarks, and we'll get started.
Thank you all for being here. I appreciate your time and your interest. Akash, thanks for hosting us. With me is Chirfi Guindo, our Chief Marketing Officer; and Marjorie Green, who leads clinical development for oncology.
Understood. So I'll start off with, I think, obviously, your team has been very active on the BD front recently, and there was another major acquisition that your team consummated in Cidara. And this is kind of a theme that we're starting to see emerge of how do you build a vaccine business, but kind of almost make it vaccine adjacent, right? Talk to me about what you saw in Cidara and why the flu market really needed a long-acting antiviral to maybe build that market out.
No, thank you for the question, and thank you all for giving us the opportunity to tell the story of our fantastic company. For those of you who just -- if you haven't been paying attention, we had a phenomenal week. And Cidara was just one of a number of milestones announced just this past week. We announced the good news on HIV, right, in the naïve population with islatravir/doravirine, basically Phase III. So really, really exciting. We announced the WINREVAIR CADENCE Phase II readout, also very, very exciting.
KEYTRUDA subcu approved in Europe yesterday. So a lot happening in our company. And Cidara indeed represents a significant opportunity, first and foremost, for the protection of many, many people around the world who have high risk of complications from influenza infection or who are immunocompromised. So I'll talk a little bit about the rationale for Cidara and how we see value creation with this particular acquisition. So traditional vaccines have limited efficacy in certain populations. If you're immunocompromised, obviously, you're going to continue to have risks.
If you have COPD, right, HIV, if you have had an event, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease patients and the list goes on and on, these are all populations who are at high risk. So we -- as we look at the opportunity, we've looked at the U.S., just as an example, there are about 110 million people, right, who really could benefit from this long-acting antiviral, which, by the way, really, I should say this, is really strain agnostic.
So you take it once at the beginning of the season and you get protection through the whole season. right? And so whether you've been vaccinated before or you've not been vaccinated, you can benefit from this long-acting antiviral. What we've seen in the Phase II data is 76% efficacy in protecting against influenza infection, independent of the strain of the influenza infection. So from 110 million people in the United States, 85 million of them are people with underlying disease, right?
So immunocompromised, cancer survivors, HIV patients, COPD patients and so on and so forth.
And 25 million are people who are 65 or older without comorbid conditions who also really could get additional protection from this long-acting antiviral. So we believe that by bringing this to market, we have the opportunity to really help many, many patients. Clinical benefit is clear, as I described it, but there's also a huge economic benefit.
In the last season, as an example, there were up to 1.6 million hospitalizations due to influenza in the United States alone, right? So obviously, last year was a really tough one, a big one. But this season is also proving to be very challenging. There are new strains that are being talked about here in the U.K., in Canada, in Japan. And so we see this as a real opportunity to protect millions of people around the world and to really create value for our company and for our shareholders.
Understood. Your answer also, I think when it comes to infectious disease, a lot about product uptake is also about patient education, but also kind of getting the governments behind recognizing the value of certain products. I think we certainly saw that with COVID-19. But even if you think about the long-term story on GARDASIL, we're in a different FDA.
And I think there has been an increase in vaccine hesitancy, not just say what you will about the FDA, but really at the ground level, Americans are more hesitant to use vaccines in a way that we haven't seen historically. As you think about a long-acting antiviral like Cidara's drug and think about the importance maybe to the U.S. government and nationally, do you feel like there might be alignment with how, let's say, the FDA and the Trump administration values that product and how Merck does?
So we believe that there is going to be alignment. In fact, the FDA has asked Cidara to expand the patient population for the Phase III program to include 65-year-olds and above who do not have comorbid conditions. It just goes to show the level of interest that exists within the FDA and the U.S. government more generally.
We believe that CD388, which is the asset that we're talking about, will be really attractive also in terms of government policy, public health policy and pandemic prevention in the U.S., but also in Europe, importantly. So BARDA might be interested in this as a strategy for prevention of future pandemics. So this -- this is aligned with government strategy.
So just two quick points on that. A, sometimes we'll see you have to put out an initial efficacy data set to kind of prove that the product works. But then you start to get certainly with vaccines expedited routes to market after that. Is that a framework we could potentially think about for a long-acting antiviral like Cidara, where, let's say, you have the new strains and you can show that this is completely neutralizing them? Is that type of pragmatism potentially applied to your product with the FDA?
And then number two, as we think about the National Priority Review Voucher, a pathway that's now suddenly available, is this product potentially something that Merck could pursue?
So we will pursue all options. What I can tell you really is there's a high level of interest. The fact that this is strain agnostic makes it uniquely important in terms of public health, and we will continue to engage both with the FDA and the administration more broadly to make this available as early as we can, right?
So we're in Phase III, whether you're vaccinated or not vaccinated, you're going to be a candidate for Phase III enrollment and for the high-risk populations that I'm talking about, just -- clear. And we look forward to generating the data that will really motivate public health to adopt this prevention.
Understood. Now maybe hitting on WINREVAIR. And you had mentioned the CADENCE data had come out. And look, I think you have to give credit to your team. If I look at the report card of the Acceleron acquisition, if we knew ZENITH would hit, HYPERION would hit, CADENCE would hit, the drug would launch well, you think about the value that Acceleron would be at right now.
A couple of things. Number one, now that you have HYPERION, ZENITH data, I mean, really data to support the use of sotatercept broadly in PAH, should we expect a corresponding increase in patient starts in 2026? And then number two, the CADENCE data came out. I think the issue for a lot of investors, and we're struggling as well is it doesn't seem to be a clear relationship between pVO2 and the endpoints we've traditionally seen in this population like 6-minute walk. Why should we feel confident that this drug will gain regulatory approval ultimately in Phase III?
Yes. So the first point is we're really pleased with the uptake so far in the launch of WINREVAIR in PAH. It has been transformative. I mean, PAH is a really terrible disease, disease of young women. Most of the patients are women in their 30s and 40s. And the survival rate of 5 years is less than 50%. So it's a really, really terrible disease. And before these patients die, unfortunately, they have a terrible quality of life. And what we have seen in the clinical program, but also in the real world since the launch is really, really the benefit that WINREVAIR brings to these patients and to the community.
And you're right in saying that all of the studies have been positive. We have a wall of data now around WINREVAIR, right? And so in the advanced patients on triple, but also with HYPERION, we now have data -- convincing data in the dual therapy treated patients, which really is giving confidence to the community to begin to adopt WINREVAIR to a broader base of patients, right? So, so far, most of the prescriptions are still in the more advanced triple therapy treated patients, but we're beginning to see uptake moving to earlier stages and more of the dual therapy patients.
So that's what I will say. We have about 500 or so patients that are initiated every month on an ongoing basis in the United States. We're beginning to see uptake in Japan, in Germany, in France and other parts of the world. So we are really bullish about the PAH opportunity going forward. As far as CADENCE, this is a different patient population. This is Group II PAH. In fact, it's a subset of Group II PAH, the CpcPH.
You could think about that as a rare disease also with a similar size to PAH, roughly 40,000 to 50,000 patients in the United States, similar to the PAH population. But the diagnosis rate is very low in this case. So the Phase II data is very promising. You saw the press release. The level of excitement is high because there's no treatment for these patients, right, with CpcPH. Now we're getting into Phase III. We're really excited about the opportunity to advance the program.
We believe we do have to do a Phase III program. Our team is working with the FDA to define the parameters of the Phase III and the endpoints, whether it's functional endpoints or to your question, all of that will be determined in the coming periods. So stay tuned for the Phase II presentation that will be delivered early in the new year. And then for the Phase III, we'll keep you updated as well. But it's really exciting and hope for those patients who really have no options to speak of as of today.
Yes. That's a good point. So maybe just jumping to a couple of other products that your team is consistently pointing out, Ex-Oncology is important to you. Talk to me a bit about EyeBio. That deal, you have a trispecific and new mechanism of action in a quite mature market. And I think a lot of investors say, well, there's going to be biosimilar Eylea, there's biosimilar Lucentis. ASPs have been just in secular decline. Why is Merck interested in this opportunity? What makes your asset different andn what's becoming a pretty mature marketplace?
Yes. So this is another exciting part of our portfolio that we believe is underappreciated, frankly. The acquisition of EyeBio is really motivated by the great science, unmet medical need and value opportunity. And why do we think there's unmet medical need? Because the anti-VEGFs that have now been adopted broadly have done a really, really nice job in helping many, many patients.
You're talking millions of patients. Again, for context, in the United States, there are about 1.5 million people who live with diabetic macular edema and a similar number who live with neovascular or wet AMD. So these are big numbers of patients. 40% of these patients who are treated continue to have issues.
They're either not responding or they do not respond adequately to the anti-VEGFs. So there's an unmet medical need. And there's a need for a new MOA and that is what the EyeBio portfolio brings us, right? So you have the WIN pathway, which is the MK-3000, right? And then you have the bispecific of Tie2 and VEGF, which we have with our Tispectus assets. So two assets that we have acquired as part of the EyeBio acquisition that are responding to an unmet medical need in this patient population.
So it's a large pool of patients who are treated, but 40% of them are not treated adequately. So this is the opportunity, right? And so as we come to market, we believe that we're going to create value. We're going to have rapid adoption in this patient population. And so -- and the data so far is really, really encouraging. The program is advancing, in fact, accelerating, which is always an indication. When you have acceleration of clinical trial enrollment, it is an early indicator of adoption at a later stage.
And so next year, look out for the Phase III readout for DME for MK-3000. So that's going to happen next year. Last October, we presented data on Tispectus, which is really, really encouraging. It's early Phase Ib data presented at the Orlando meeting, the American Academy of Ophthalmology. But all this to say that we are really looking forward to bringing these two drugs to market to augment, right, the anti-VEGFs and to provide additional value for patients. And this is a multibillion-dollar opportunity, by the way. So stay tuned on that.
Oral PCSK9, really robust data. I mean, you're getting biologic-like efficacy. I think there's two questions. A, food effect, is this going to be problematic. But I think there's another one, too, which is Dean's mentioned for outcomes, you're designing a study and you're going to be patient, you're looking for greater than 20% risk reduction. That seems to be important.
But that also means that you're going to have to wait several years for outcomes to read out. You can't have your cake you need it to. But that kind of brings an interesting question, which is without outcomes data, maybe for a bit, how is Merck thinking about access and uptake here to allow this drug to be commercially viable without the outcomes data out of the gate? How are you thinking about that challenge?
Yes. So I mean, we are really excited about enlicitide. This is really our, I would say, chemistry masterpiece, if I can put it this way. And the reason why I say this is our chemists have been working for a number of years to try to deliver a biologic in a pill. And they have succeeded in doing that. It's really -- I invite you to read up on the story and the molecule of enlicitide itself. When it was presented a few weeks ago at the American Heart Association Conference, it blew the field away because it's able to deliver the potency and the efficacy of the antibodies.
So just to summarize it a little bit, you get 60% -- approximately 60% reduction in LDL cholesterol on top of the statin. You get 50% reduction in non-HDL cholesterol, 50% reduction in apoB and 30% reduction in Lp(a), right? And so that is what you get in this one simple tablet that you take in the morning, 30 minutes before your breakfast right?
So the so-called food effect really was not an issue in the clinical trial program. In fact, 97% or more of the patients had no problems following the regimen of the morning intake 30 minutes before meals. So we look forward to bringing it to market. We have a large -- we have experience in the space. The data is celebrated. We look forward to guidelines now being updated in the U.S.
So experts are now talking about needing to update those guidelines in the context of the VESALIUS data that was presented from Amgen, again, excellent data. And our data, there's no reason for them to begin to think about updating those guidelines, so we can have those conversations with payers. We do intend to think about broad access, right?
So our strategy is going to be price to value and price to access for enlicitide, very important. We think Dean has used the concept of democratizing access to PCSK9, and that is very much what we're going to be doing. And we believe there will be uptake prior to the CV outcome data that you referenced because of the mechanistic way in which enlicitide works, it really works similar to the antibodies and very different than the traditional small molecules, right?
And so we believe that there is going to be recognition for that in the guidelines, which will then help us with the payers. Obviously, the pricing strategy will also help with early adoption.
Understood. Marjorie, maybe turning to you. We had lunch early. You described sac-TMT in a way that I think is -- I've not heard an ADC describe before. You think of Enhertu and you say, okay, if you have breast cancer and clearly, even if it's HER2 low or nonexistent, apparently, there's a clinical effect, but there's a segment of people who take Enhertu.
If you take PADCEV, your urologists are likely looking at that. You described sac-TMT as a drug that might be useful for community oncologists. Can you talk about what that means? Because I don't think we've thought about ADCs with that framework before.
Thanks for the question. Ultimately, what we hope to see with sac-TMT is efficacy across multiple diseases. And we have a great partnership with Kelun. A lot of data has been generated in China, some of which you all have seen at ESMO recently in hormone receptor positive breast cancer, EGFR mutated non-small cell lung cancer. There have been other Phase II data sets, and there's more that haven't been publicly presented.
And that led to our 15 registration studies that are currently ongoing across multiple tumor types, including gynecologic tumors, lung cancer, breast cancer and many more. And so thinking about drugs, ultimately, we want a drug that is highly active and really does change the standard and not only for the academic oncologists out there, but also thinking about in the United States, 80% of oncology care is given in the community. And often, these are physicians who see people who have multiple different tumor types.
There are some practices where people are subspecialized. I'm a breast oncologist by training, and all I saw was breast cancer patients was in the academic world. And so a person can see a patient with lung cancer. They could see a person who has endometrial cancer. They could see someone who has gastric cancer. And by having a drug with potent efficacy and what we hope we will see in the global Phase III studies is really good tolerability, that ability to keep people on drugs, it becomes the choice then.
I have someone who has non-small cell lung cancer, and I want to give a TROP2 ADC and KEYTRUDA. Well, okay, there's data with sac-TMT. My next patient has endometrial cancer. I have sac-TMT. And so it's the workhorse ADC because it's got -- we think, again, I've described this for those who know the Goldilocks and the three bears kind of analogy, it's just right. It's really potent, but that tolerability comes out.
ADCs are not identical at all. And that's why I think this really is for the community oncologists, something that we would be able to provide great value through the clinical efficacy and the broad utility across multiple indications.
Understood. And you talk a lot about tolerability. But one of the things that we saw certainly at ESMO, you have similar response rates to some of the early TROP2 ADCs when you had your Phase I/II data. And I think that's what I think a lot of the field saw. What we're starting to see is that on overall survival, there seems to be a very different shape curve than when I look at TRODELVY or I look at DATROWAY.
So talk to me about how tolerability plays a role into overall survival. And what I would say is also when you think about -- 15 Phase III trials, that's a lot of investment. What do you want to see on OS for this to be needle moving and kind of the workhorse product for Merck in the way that KEYTRUDA is?
Multiple sort of aspects of that question. So again, we need to see what the global data looks like. I think that the Phase III studies that Kelun has done have been really impressive, and you're seeing consistent data across multiple different kind of diseases with sac-TMT in the Phase III data that Kelun has generated. The survival is interesting.
I think we have all gotten a little spoiled in oncology with the checkpoint inhibitors. And I think I don't want to discount that PFS is still an important endpoint in oncology. So it's clinically meaningful. If you have -- because patients don't always -- or people with cancer don't always make it to the next therapy. And that's -- if it's a large enough number and they can't get to subsequent therapy, then you start seeing overall survival.
So there are different aspects that go into overall survival is can people make it to their next therapy? Can people stay on therapy a long period of time like you see in the progression-free survival. And that's where I think the ability to stay on therapy becomes a part of the equation. Cancer is smart.
It develops resistance to therapies. And unfortunately, for people that many of their cancers will develop resistance and progress. But it's that long-term ability to have disease control that we think can impact the overall survival. I don't -- every disease indication and segment is a little different about what kind of survival advantage is clinically meaningful. I still believe that progression-free survival is a clinically meaningful endpoint. And so I'm very excited about the upcoming Phase III readouts.
Okay. Understood. Now maybe towards the end here, let's touch a bit on HIV. And again, another product your team talks about [ Street ] maybe not be paying enough attention to. And I think even when we do talk about it, it's about PrEP, right? It's about the monthly PrEP. And I want you to talk about, a, the importance of a 2-drug regimen that could compete against Biktarvy in the antiviral side? And what do you think about that product opportunity? And then separately, what do you think about the impact of a monthly PrEP option as well?
Yes. Thank you for the question. So we announced this week, as I mentioned earlier, the naïve data for islatravir/doravirine. This is our daily 2-drug regimen that basically is indistinguishable or noninferior to Biktarvy in terms of efficacy. So this one will be -- the PDUFA on this one is going to be April next year. Next year, we also have two important treatment readouts in Phase III, and that is a weekly oral, right, islatravir with lenacapavir, right?
And so just to paint the picture a little bit. And the PrEP one will come later in 2027 in terms of readout. So coming back to the treatment -- daily treatment, why is there a need for a 2-drug regimen that does not contain integrase inhibitor. For a number of years, the field has been looking for options a new anchor treatment, right? Integrase inhibitor is the current anchor treatment. And Biktarvy is the standard of care.
No question about that. Now as you get older on your treatment, physicians are looking for options, right, to save or to preserve, if you want, the integrase inhibitor. For the first time, we have data now that suggests that with islatravir as anchor, you can have the same efficacy as Biktarvy and potentially, you can avoid some of the liabilities of integrase inhibition over time, right, cardiometabolic toxicity over time.
And so this is really appealing part of this 2-drug regimen. You get less drug and you have the cardiometabolic issues that you don't have to worry about as the patients get older on their treatment. So that is really the compelling case with the 2-drug regimen.
Maybe just define what of the -- the branded antiviral opportunity would be those patients who really want to try a non-integrase option.
What is the -- sorry?
As in the market you're alluding to just for people who would explore that new option, how big of that -- what subset of that is of the antivirals?
So as we talk to clinicians, again, we've done a lot of market research on this. We asked them this question. So which patients are you going to be prioritizing for this regimen. I mean you think about diabetic patients, think about patients with obesity and other cardiometabolic issues, maybe some patients with renal issues. So those are the types of patients that are most likely to be prioritized for this type of regimen. And that is the insight that we're getting from our clinicians.
That's very helpful. And then maybe for the monthly PrEP...
For the monthly PrEP. So this one is going to be also really important for the field because I have to say, first of all, that the injectables have been really, really impressive in terms of protecting people against HIV infection, right, whether you're talking about the twice yearly injection, once yearly injection soon or even every 3 to 4 months injection.
So those are all very effective drugs preventing HIV infection.
But what we hear from people who are at risk is that they do prefer to have a long-acting oral option. About 1/3 of the people that we've surveyed tell us that if there's a long-acting oral option, especially a monthly oral option, they would prefer that to having to go through the doctor, get an injection. And with the oral option, you can get in the privacy of your home, you get it sent to you, you don't have to go see the doctor and you get effective protection with a single pill that you take and it starts working within 30 minutes and then you get protection for the whole month, right?
So that is the compelling case for our PrEP option. We look forward to bringing that one also to market. And collectively, you're talking about a multibillion-dollar opportunity for HIV, which we think has been underappreciated.
And just for perfect clarity, the PDUFA date in April is for the islatravir/doravirine switch...
The daily.
Yes. This -- what we read out this week top line was the naïve -- treatment naïve, but it's for the same regimen just in a different setting.
Yes. Perfect. Thanks for the clarification.
We're going to call it here. There's a lot more that's worth talking about, and I do encourage investors to really dig into their pipeline. So appreciative of your time.
Thanks so much.
Thank you.
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Merck & Co. — Jefferies London Healthcare Conference 2025
Merck & Co. — Jefferies London Healthcare Conference 2025
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Merck präsentiert sich als diversifizierter Biopharma-Konzern: aggressive M&A (u.a. Cidara, EyeBio), mehrere near‑term klinische/Komm.-Katalysatoren und ein Fokus auf Prävention (langwirksame Antiviren) sowie ambulante, oral verfügbare Therapien. Ziel: breite Marktabsicherung jenseits reiner Onkologie.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Cidara: Langwirkender, strain‑agnostischer Influenza‑Antiviral; Ansprache ~110 Mio. US‑Patienten mit hohem Risiko; hoher öffentlicher Gesundheitsnutzen (BARDA/FDA‑Interesse).
- Onkologie/ADC: sac‑TMT als „Workhorse“‑ADC mit 15 Registrierungsstudien; Fokus auf hohe Effektivität bei akzeptabler Verträglichkeit für Community‑Onkologen.
- Kardiologie/Ophthalmologie: Oral‑PCSK9 (enlicitide) mit ~60% LDL‑Senkung; EyeBio‑Assets (MK‑3000, Tispectus) mit Phase‑III‑Plänen für DME und multibillion‑Dollar‑Opportunity.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Regulatorisch: FDA hat laut Management Cidara‑Programm erweitert, um ≥65‑Jährige ohne Komorbiditäten in Phase‑III einzuschließen (zeigt Behördengespräch und Interesse).
- PDUFA: Management nennt einen PDUFA‑Termin für das tägliche Islatravir/Doravirine‑Regimen im April (Angabe aus dem Call).
- Kommerz: WINREVAIR‑Launch: ~500 Patienteninitiationen/Monat in den USA; EyeBio‑MK‑3000 Phase‑III‑DME‑Readout angekündigt für das kommende Jahr.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Cidara/Regulatorik: Analysten fragten nach beschleunigten Wegen (Expedited approvals, Priority Review Voucher, BARDA‑Unterstützung). Management sagt, man werde alle Optionen verfolgen, bleibt aber vage zu Zeitplan und formalen Zusagen.
- CADENCE/Endpoints: Kritische Nachfrage zur Korrelation von pVO2 versus klassische Endpunkte (6‑Minuten‑Gang); Management bestätigt Phase‑III nötig, Parameter noch mit FDA zu definieren.
- Enlicitide/Marktzugang: Fragen zu Uptake vor CV‑Outcome‑Daten; Antwort: Preis‑zur‑Wert‑Strategie, Guideline‑Updates und Payer‑Engagement sollen frühen Zugang ermöglichen, Outcome‑Timing bleibt aber ein Umsetzungsrisiko.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Call zeigt breite, katalysator‑gestützte Pipeline und klare Kommerz‑Ambitionen. Near‑term‑Katalysatoren (PDUFA/Phase‑III‑Starts, Launch‑Traction) bieten Aufwärtspotenzial; Hauptrisiken sind regulatorische Endpunktdefinitionen, Zulassungs‑Timings und Payer‑Zugangsmechanik. Anleger sollten Phase‑III‑designs und Erstattungs‑Strategien genau beobachten.
Merck & Co. — Cidara Therapeutics, Inc., Merck & Co., Inc. - M&A Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Merck & Co. Inc., Rahway, New Jersey, U.S.A. Investor Event announcing the acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may -- I will now turn the call over to Mr. Peter Dannenbaum, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Thank you, Denise. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Merck's investor call highlighting the announced acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics.
Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that some of the statements that we make today may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are made based on the current beliefs of our company's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. If our underlying assumptions prove inaccurate or uncertainties materialize, actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. Our SEC filings, including Item 1A and the 2024 10-K identify certain risk factors and cautionary statements that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from those projected in any of our forward-looking statements made this morning. Merck & Co. Inc., Rahway, New Jersey, U.S.A. undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.
During today's call, slide presentation will accompany our speakers' prepared remarks. These slides and our SEC filings are posted to the Investor Relations section of our company's website. Our agenda this morning includes Rob Davis, Merck's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, who will lead off our presentation. Rob will be followed by Dr. Dean Li, President of Merck Research Laboratories; Chirfi Guindo, Chief Marketing Officer, Human Health; and Caroline Litchfield, Chief Financial Officer. Q&A will follow the presentation.
With that, I will turn the call over to Rob.
Thanks, Peter. Good morning, everyone. We continue to successfully advance our science led strategy through new product approvals and launches, strong clinical execution, important data readouts and the addition of novel innovation through our business development efforts. With the strong momentum we have across our broad pipeline, we're increasingly confident in our sustained ability to positively impact patients with our medicines and vaccines and in our potential for long-term growth and value creation.
Today, we're very excited to speak to you about our acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics. We've been closely tracking the Cidara team's progress in developing CD388, an innovative first-in-class investigational long-acting antiviral agent designed to prevent influenza infection and individuals at higher risk of developing influenza complications. Influenza infection still poses a substantial public health threat with significant associated mortality, which Dean and Chirfi will speak to in a minute. And we're pleased to add CD388 to our pipeline to address this serious unmet need.
Merck has a long legacy of bringing forward important medicines and vaccines in the infectious disease and respiratory spaces, and CD388 represents a complementary addition to our portfolio. We're excited to welcome the strong science and talented Cidara team to Merck and look forward to benefiting from their additive skills and further contributions. CD388 has received FDA fast track and breakthrough therapy designations and is currently being evaluated in a Phase III trial. Should the trial results meet our expectations, we believe CD388 will be an important new option in the prevention of influenza. Given the size of the addressable population and unmet need, we see a greater than $5 billion nonrisk-adjusted commercial opportunity. We expect CD388 to be another important contributor to growth as we enter the next decade.
More broadly, this transaction is yet another example of our company acting decisively when compelling science and value aligned, and we're confident in the benefits it will provide Merck and our shareholders. We're proud of the success we're having in bringing novel innovation through business development, and we're well positioned financially to complete this transaction while continuing to pursue additional opportunities. In the coming years, we'll increasingly benefit from the rapid transformation of our portfolio that is now firmly underway. We look forward to a future with a far more diversified set of growth drivers with CD388 adding to the greater than $50 billion revenue opportunity we've highlighted in the past.
We continue to successfully advance and augment our pipeline, the deepest and broadest we've had in recent memory. And I am very confident in our ability to positively impact patients and achieve long-term growth.
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Dean, who will speak more about the strength of the science and clinical data underpinning CD388's profile. Dean?
Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. It is great to be here to provide more detail following Friday's announcement. CD388 represents a compelling scientific opportunity with the potential to address a significant public health need. It aligns well with our strategy of adding the best external science while complementing our portfolio of products and pipeline candidates targeting respiratory diseases.
Influenza continues to pose a significant global health threat causing widespread illness, morbidity and death each year, especially in older adults, high-risk adults and those with compromised immune systems. There is a high burden of disease in the United States alone. The latest data from the CDC indicates that the 2024, '25 season, there are up to 82 million people infected with influenza, resulting in as many as 1.3 million hospitalizations and 130,000 deaths. There is a significant unmet medical need, especially for those individuals at high risk and those who are immunocompromised. And as we look at the current options available, there are clear limitations.
Current seasonal flu vaccines have limited efficacy, which varies year-to-year. These variations are predominantly caused by viral antigenic drift as well as mismatches between the seasonal vaccine formulation with circulating strains. Efficacy varies with age, immune status and influenza type. The level of protection from vaccine tends to be lower in the elderly and immunocompromised populations due to less robust immune responses, putting them at increased risk despite vaccination. There are available antivirals, but they must be initiated within 48 hours of symptom onset, which limits utilization. Given these dynamics, influenza is a major driver of morbidity and mortality, and new innovative options are needed to address this burden.
CD388 is a potentially first-in-class of long-acting strain agnostic antiviral, which demonstrated clinically meaningful rates of influenza prevention in a Phase II study. It is a multivalent conjugate of the approved neuraminidase inhibitor, zanamivir linked to an Fc hybrid domain of human IgG1 that has been engineered for an extended half life. It is not a vaccine. And unlike flu vaccines, efficacy of CD388 should not vary season to season nor be dependent on immune response. CD388 is designed to provide a full season of coverage from influenza strains A and B. And given its mechanism, it has the potential to be complementary to flu vaccines. CD388 is a novel, late-phase candidate with a differentiated mechanism of action. The Fc conjugation of zanamivir enables an extended half-life allowing for a single season dose to [ confirm ] protection.
In preclinical model, CD388 improved the antiviral activity of zanamivir, demonstrating potent universal activity across influenza A and B viruses, including high pathogenicity and neuraminidase inhibitor resistant strains. The molecule has a high barrier to resistance based on in vitro data and has potential to provide increased protection in high-risk and immunocompromised individuals.
Now to the Phase IIb results. The primary endpoint of prevention efficacy of protocol-defined influenza-like illness events at 24 weeks was met with statistical significance at each dose group. The remarkable 76% efficacy at the highest dose demonstrates the potential for once per season protection against all strains of influenza in individuals. All secondary endpoints also met statistical significance in each dose group. There was a low incidence of antidrug antibodies observed at all doses demonstrating CD388 low immunogenicity. CD388 was well tolerated with no safety signals observed and the rate of injection site reactions was similar to placebo. The Cidara team has successfully initiated the Phase III ANCHOR study. The trial is rapidly enrolling with the design focused on individuals at high risk for complications of influenza, including those 65 years of age and older and those that are immunocompromised.
Similar to the Phase II study, the primary endpoint is prevention efficacy of influenza-like illness. An interim analysis is scheduled after the first flu season to assess the potential need for an increase in sample size. Finally, I'd also like to echo Rob's comments and highlight Cidara's strong clinical achievements and the success they've had in advancing the science in this important disease area.
With that, I will turn the call over to Chirfi, who will highlight the commercial opportunity in more detail.
Thank you, Dean, and good morning, everyone. As you heard from Dean, our team is excited about the opportunity to advance a potential first-in-class once-per-season strain agnostic long-acting antiviral agent for influenza. We see a complementary fit with our existing portfolio and pipeline, given our strong presence across a range of diseases in which individuals are high risk for poor outcomes from influenza.
Influenza is a persistent public health challenge, impacting both individuals and health care systems. Severe outcomes from influenza are concentrated in high-risk populations, including people with underlying illnesses or those aged 65 and older. Beyond the direct burden of disease, the broader consequences of influenza include increased risk of infection and exacerbation of chronic underlying conditions, all of which increase the risk of hospitalization and death. Approximately 50% to 70% of influenza-related hospitalizations and 90% of influenza-related deaths occur in people aged 65 and older.
Vaccination coverage rates are high among high-risk and/or immunocompromised individuals. About 70% to 80% are estimated to receive its traditional flu vaccine today. However, even with that level of coverage, significant risks remain. In fact, 9 out of 10 people who are hospitalized with influenza had at least 1 underlying health condition, individuals with COPD, PAH, atherosclerosis and metabolic disorders or those with weakened immune system due to diseases such as HIV or cancer are all at increased risk of developing serious complications from influenza.
More broadly, seasonal influenza is known to burden health care resources. Flu seasons are routinely associated with billions of dollars in health care spending and lost economic output. As we consider the population that CD388 can potentially serve, we expect there to be approximately 110 million individuals in the United States alone at higher risk of influenza complications who would benefit from the protection offered by long-acting antiviral. This includes approximately 85 million individuals who are living with high-risk conditions or are immunocompromised and approximately 25 million individuals age 65 and older without additional comorbidities who may benefit from additional protection beyond what the current vaccines offer. We believe CD388 will be highly differentiated in the market based on its efficacy in preventing influenza-like illness as well as its potential to provide strain agnostic coverage with seasoned long [ protection ].
In summary, we're eager to put our commercial engine to work behind the potential first-in-class once per season strain agnostic antiviral for the prevention of symptomatic influenza in high-risk individuals. CD388 is complementary fit with our current portfolio, covering respiratory vaccines, infectious diseases and other areas that address high-risk patients. We will be well positioned to deliver on its full potential and are excited to build upon the great work done by the Cidara team. Based on a strong clinical profile, the significant unmet need in a large patient population and our commitment to working with customers to operationalize this novel antiviral agent, we believe CD388 represents a greater than $5 billion commercial opportunity.
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Caroline.
Thank you, Chirfi. Merck is in a strong financial position, allowing us to announce the acquisition of Cidara while retaining significant capacity to pursue our capital allocation priorities, including future business development, with additional attractive opportunities arise. As Chirfi highlighted, given the substantial unmet need for influenza prevention in a large at-risk population and the significant protection CD388 provides, we believe it has greater than $5 billion in revenue potential and can be a meaningful driver of growth beginning later this decade and continuing through the next. CD388 strengthens and complements our expanding respiratory pipeline and portfolio. We are confident that this transaction has the potential to create meaningful value to shareholders.
Turning to the financial details of the transaction. Merck has agreed to acquire all outstanding shares of Cidara Therapeutics for $221.50 per share. This results in a total transaction value of approximately $9.2 billion. We intend to finance the transaction primarily through new debt and commercial paper issuance and there will be no impact to our credit rating. We expect the transaction to close in the first quarter of 2026, subject to Cidara shareholder approval and regulatory approvals. We expect the transaction to be accounted for as an asset acquisition, which will therefore result in a charge recorded to next year's research and development expense of approximately $9 billion or approximately $3.65 per share.
In addition, we believe this transaction will negatively impact EPS by approximately $0.30 in the first 12 months, roughly 1/3 of which represents investment to advance CD388, and the remainder is the assumed cost of financing. The impact of these charges will be reflected in both our GAAP and non-GAAP results.
Our balanced approach to capital allocation remains unchanged. We will use our strong balance sheet and growing cash flow to continue prioritizing investments in our rich portfolio and pipeline. We remain committed to funding and growing our dividend over time and we preserve the ability within a strong investment-grade credit rating to pursue additional value-enhancing and innovation-driven business development transactions, which remains an important priority. Finally, we intend to continue share repurchases this year at the same pace that we've previously communicated.
In summary, the success we are having in advancing and augmenting our pipeline, including through science-led business development, like the acquisition of Cidara makes us increasingly confident about our prospects to deliver important innovation to patients, long-term growth and value creation to shareholders.
I will now turn the call back to Peter.
Thank you, Caroline. Denise, we're now ready for Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] And that is going to come from Carter Gould with Cantor.
2. Question Answer
Great. Congrats on the deal. Good to see. I wanted to touch on the manufacturing side, which I noticed wasn't in the slide deck. Cidara's go-to market strategy has leaned heavily on WuXi manufactured products from China with new CDMOs potentially serving as a backup. Is that still a fair assumption in your hands? Or should we anticipate U.S. domiciled facilities, either CDMOs or your own that will need to be ramped up to be the main source of product by the time of launch for CD388?
Yes. Thanks for the question, Carter. So to answer your question, long term, we will be the manufacturer of the drug and it will be in a U.S. site. Obviously, we'll have to work through the transition with WuXi over time. But given the investments we've been making, we've announced some recently, along with our existing manufacturing footprint and frankly, expertise in the CMC that would be needed for this, we are quite confident in our ability to manufacture and move that forward.
That comes from James Shin with Deutsche Bank.
As we get ready for CD388 data and pending launch, our discussions with the timing of discussion with ACIP and the status of that whole, I guess, panel, does that impact the launch?
This is Dean. This is an antiviral that's BLA, that's a biologics that's in the adult population. At this point, there is no concept that this needs to go through the ACIP and relationship to being launched.
That is from Vamil Divan with Guggenheim Partners.
So maybe 2, if I could. So one, just curious. interesting you have RSV antibody also, now you have this antiviral. I'm curious, has there been -- has the shift in sentiment we're seeing around vaccination in any way impacted your view sort of the infectious disease base to kind of pursue these sorts of opportunities as opposed to maybe vaccination opportunities? And second, just curious, if you see an opportunity for this technology moving beyond influenza into other infectious disease opportunities in the future?
Maybe I'll start and then Dean can jump in on broader applications of this technology. As we look at this, first and foremost, what we're excited about is this is a first-in-class antiviral, which really is a new mechanism for treating people with infectious disease as a result of pneumococcal -- or sorry, seasonal flu mixing our portfolio with the seasonal flu.
So I would not say that our view of what is happening around vaccinations is any way affected either a, our view of vaccinations or what drove us to this. Why we like this is it's very complementary to what we have in infectious disease. It's very complementary to what we have in the vaccines portfolio and the fact that it's a long-acting antiviral, you can think of actually drugs in dealing with HIV and PrEP as an example, which we're developing. You can think about other areas, other antivirals that are out there, LAGEVRIO, as an example, these are areas where we think it's very complementary. And the science is what drove us here, not something in what is the view of vaccines in the current public stance.
Yes. I would just add scientifically. There has been innovation in the sort of commercial flu vaccine area but from a basic technological approach, I haven't seen any true ability to markedly improve the response to influenza viruses. There were different technologies more recently that we're deployed in flu and you do not see a step function change in being able to improve the efficacy of a flu vaccine.
Given that, that is where the unmet needed, and that is why using a longer-acting viral agent especially a biologic because you're putting an antiviral on an Fc is really an attractive arena for us. As for other areas where you would conjugate something to an Fc in infectious disease and outside of infectious disease, there are applications to it. And this application of this technology is not so distant from those used in terms of antibody drug conjugates.
That is from Daina Graybosch with Leerink Partners.
I wonder if you could talk a little bit more about the Phase III trial and whether you need to show trends in protection for all 3 major circulating strains in influenza A and B? And do you see any risk to capture the total events needed or any specific strains? If you could help us understand that.
So I should just simply say that we've been in close contact with Cidara's team. We're very comfortable with the plans, and we're very comfortable with their relationship with the FDA. Outside of that, I would be a little bit hesitant to speak on the details of their clinical trial and some of their details of that until we are the full owners of this asset.
That is with Alex Hammond with Wolfe Research.
Two for me. So the first one is, looking forward on M&A, are you focused on the same therapeutic areas and target size of $1 billion to $15 billion? And how should we think about the cadence of additional potential trials? And then in light of payer emphasis on real-world evidence, what post-approval studies are planned to kind of quantify CD388's cost offset in the immunocompromised populations? Thank you.
Yes. Maybe I'll start, and then Chirfi can jump in on the second part of the question or Dean, either one. So as it relates to M&A, I would say, first and foremost, we're very excited about this. The ability to affect seasonal influenza is meaningful. And as we've said, it's aligned and very complementary with our existing therapeutic area of focus.
And as you think about going forward, you should assume we're going to continue to follow the same strategy we've been following from business development. We always ask first, is there a significant unmet need where we see interesting science that can address it, does it strategically fit within our portfolio. And in that regard, as we've talked about in the past, we continue to look at oncology as an area for further opportunity, immunology, cardiovascular, cardiometabolic or cardiorespiratory and then any broader opportunity that would present itself.
The $1 billion to $15 billion range is still our primary focus. But as we pointed out, we are willing to go larger than that if we see an asset that brings the scientific benefits I've talked about and is aligned to the portfolio. We continue to believe there is no need for a cost synergy-driven type of transaction. I feel very good that we're on pace to address the growth we need. If we continue to make the progress like we've been making, we are very well positioned. So we want to do more, but we will be disciplined and you'll see us follow the same strategy we followed to date.
So with that, I'll turn it over to maybe Dean and then he can -- Chirfi, if he wants to add anything you can.
Yes. I mean, I would always say real-world evidence is always very important. But I think the focus is on the clinical studies. The FDA has -- and Cidara has announced that they only need 1 Phase III trials, not 2 Phase III trials. And so I think the focus is on making sure that the Phase III trial, which is powered to detect a 60% efficacy hits. And upon hitting that or depending on where that is, it will change how you would do your real world evidence, but you would clearly do real-world evidence. Other people will do real-world evidence for this as well.
Next is Steve Scala with TD Cowen.
I have 2 questions. First, what is the likelihood that resistance will eventually develop to zanamivir? And secondly, Dean, you mentioned the interim look after the first flu season that could trigger a sample size increase. Should we assume that will occur in Q2 of '26? And could this interim also lead to early stoppage for efficacy or early stoppage for futility?
So I would say that the history of these antivirals and preclinically and what was known clinically, I would say the chances of resistance is relatively low. So that would be the first. And then in relationship to interim analysis, we will look at the interim analysis as to determine whether we're on the right path. We'll know what the attack rate will be in relationship to influenza and we'll make choices accordingly.
As you note, depending on how things are, we could expand it. And I would imagine that there is a chance that you could see some degree of futility at an interim analysis, but I think that would be highly not likely.
Next question is from Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.
Two for me. So looking at the Phase III trial design, I note that it's -- I see that there's a note that says it's not designed to assess effect on mortality. Is that going to be something you will need eventually to gain reimbursement? And can you also kind of discuss why you decided to take on all the risk by not including some sort of a CVR with this Phase III clinical trial ongoing?
Well, so I would just say that this molecule -- I mean, this is an antiviral that is known to be extremely effective, and you're adding an Fc. So you have a pretty good idea of what the -- with the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics are. So I think also with the positive Phase II studies that is -- I think the FDA has shown its excitement for this mechanism in relationship to showing a mortality in the clinical trial per se.
That is not what's in the clinical trial at this point, but I'll let Chirfi speak to how payers may think about that.
No, we believe that the value proposition will be compelling. You saw on the slide that Dean commented on earlier. You're talking about 82 million cases of illnesses in the last season, as an example, leading to 1.3 million hospitalizations and between 20 million and 40 million medical visits, right? And unfortunately, 30,000 to 130,000 deaths due to influenza. So as you think about that, we believe that we will have a compelling value proposition, which will then allow us to pay -- to price and secure reimbursement for the appropriate protection.
And then in terms of the deal construct, we are very comfortable with the valuation that we have given for this acquisition. What we see is a first-in-class once-per-season strain agnostic antiviral agent. We see it having a high probability of success of making it across the finishing line and therefore, feel we've paid a full and fair value for an asset that has the potential to be over $5 billion as we move forward.
Next question is from Chris Schott with JPMorgan.
Just can you talk a little bit more about the commercial model for the product here? So just how quickly assuming successful data do you think this product can ramp? How much education is required, et cetera? And is there anything you can say about price assumptions that are supporting that $5 billion target? Should we think about this kind of conceptually price like we think about a flu vaccine? Or is it something that's very different pricing just given the efficacy profile?
Thank you, Chris. I think the beauty of this asset is that it fits in nicely with our existing commercial model, if you think about the population that we're intending to protect at least initially. You're thinking about cancer patients, COPD patients, arthrosclerosis patients and the like. So these are patients who are typically in health systems already. So we will have the opportunity to reach them in a way that is effective within our existing infrastructure. So that's the first comment I would make to your question [indiscernible]
And if I may, Chris, add in terms of pricing assumptions. It's obviously early to be getting into the details of the exact strategy. As we look at this opportunity, though, there's a significant number of people that currently get a flu vaccine and are not getting the protection they need, and we can provide significant protection to those people with this therapy in advance.
As Cidara did pricing research in the marketplace, they had seen better price points up to $600 was very effective with the potential to have patients take this and not be subject to any access restrictions. So we will look at that research to determine what's the right price point for ourselves. And in addition, as we look at ex U.S. market, we would expect to see fairly comparable prices to the United States. So -- but serving a smaller population. So we're excited about this opportunity, both U.S. as well as the potential ex U.S.
The next question comes from Geoff Meacham with Citi.
Thanks for the question. Congrats on the deal. Dean, it sounds like the regulatory review of this could be outside the purview of ACIP. I wanted to ask how much of the utilization or reimbursement could be guideline driven? And also just thinking about how payers would view kind of cost benefit relative to traditional flu vaccines?
Yes, I'll just make a scientific a comment, and then I'll turn it over to Chirfi. I mean, you just look at our portfolio ,Ohtuvayre with COPD, WINREVAIR with PAH, enlicitide with secondary prevention in the future, KEYTRUDA [indiscernible] [ TMT, tulisokibart ] diabetic macular edema, HIV. Those patients are not ideally or optimally protected against influenza and they need to be. So that's the excitement from our standpoint.
No. And so we also know that for the high-risk individuals and those who are immunocompromised, traditional vaccines really do not offer adequate protection. You're talking about 5% of -- or up to 35% protection for the high-dose vaccine in this case. So we believe that our value proposition will be compelling. So this should be Phase III data pan out and we're confident in our ability to bring this protection to those who need it most.
Next question is [indiscernible] with Wells Fargo.
So a couple of questions. One is what is the base case assumption you have for the timing of the launch of this vaccine? And then the second one is on commercial, Chirfi. How similar or different do you think it could be from your RSV [indiscernible] launch in terms of positioning and then getting reimbursement and everything?
I'll take the first question. First, I just want to continue to emphasize this is not a vaccination, right? This is an antiviral. I mean, the way a correlate, it's not a precise correlate, but when we talk about HIV PrEP, we're talking about an antiviral that protects you and those individuals who high risk. This is the same general idea. Clearly, one is in HIV, and this is an influenza.
In relationship to the questions that you have, we're very comfortable with what Cidara has said in the past. But having said that, I would just simply say that until we have full control of the asset and all of this, I would just -- we may update that in the future time, but we are very comfortable with what the assumptions are behind Cidara and what they have said publicly.
So just to add to the second point of your question. So the RSV [ map ] our [indiscernible] obviously addresses infants. So this is for adults. And the big difference really is the size of the opportunity. You're talking about potentially 110 million people just in the United States, 85 million of them who have high risk or are immunocompromised and then 25 million who are 65 years and older who are all candidates for -- to receive this prevention. So this is a meaningful opportunity, over $5 billion as we have forecasted it.
That comes from Courtney Breen with Bernstein.
I have 2, if possible. One, I just wanted to probe a little bit more on that commercial model. Can you just help us understand a little bit more about where you anticipate the point of administration being? Is it with kind of those specialist environments for those particular patients? Is it more in the primary care setting? Or is it more in the retail pharmacy setting?
And then the second question is at Caroline, I think you made a point about the parameters of this deal and you're feeling very comfortable with the returns for what's being paid. Can you just clarify, given your comments on kind of U.S. pricing versus ex U.S. pricing, is U.S. revenue enough for this deal to be a positive return on investment? Or do you need kind of that ex-U.S. expansion to take place as well?
Maybe I'll take the first part, and then Caroline, you can take the second one. So thank you for the question. As we stated earlier, we believe CD388 is complementary with our current portfolio and pipeline, covering respiratory vaccines, infectious disease, HIV in particular, but also other areas such as cancer, COPD, PAH, atherosclerosis. These are all areas for which we have or are building infrastructure. So we do not anticipate that CD388 will require additional -- significant additional resources to support this launch because of the call point overlaps in this particular case.
And in terms of the return, Courtney, as we've valued this business, the U.S. is the more significant part of our valuation. As we've looked at ex U.S., and seen prior precedents, we see the opportunity to price somewhat consistently to the U.S. market in the [ G7 plus market ], supporting a smaller population, and so we are very confident in the valuation we've given. We do feel that ex U.S., we will have a market. And we do feel that there could be upside, quite frankly, to the U.S. market should the point of administration of this increase beyond the traditional points of administration that we're currently including in our valuation.
So maybe I'll add to that. Just on the point of administration. In our model, we have factored in that these patients who are going to be prioritized really are already part of the health care system. So they will have access to CD388. And so that is what's baked into our model. But should there be a pharmacy opportunity at a later stage, that will present an additional opportunity but we have not factored that into our model at this stage.
Next question is from Daina Graybosch with Leerink Partners.
We talked a lot about this not being an ACIP. Is this actually fall under the USPSTF preventative services like PrEP? And is that an opportunity in the future to expand access?
I think all of those things would be considerations. I think as you noted, what guidelines and who would recommend. What I meant in relationship to ACIP is it's not formally under their requirement to actually opine and that's the current precedence. But in terms of other guidelines, I think it will be important to target other guidelines and to ensure that they -- if the data holds the way that we think that they recommend it for the patient populations that are most in need.
You're talking about high risk and immunocompromised patients. So those are going to be really prioritized.
That comes from Steve Scala with TD Cowen.
Are there significant drug-drug interactions between zanamivir and drugs commonly used by older people? And what clinical data has been generated to date of CD388 in older adults and immunocompromised adults?
Yes. So I would just say that in the data that has been publicly available in relationship, I do not believe that substantial DDIs have been seen or ADAs have been seen. In terms of your other question, you're in relationship with what data, that requires detailed subsegmentation of the Phase II that has already been advanced, but we think that this drug, this antiviral with an Fc will have low ADA and will have limited drug-drug interactions with those drugs that these other patients are taking.
There are no further questions at this time.
Great. Well, thank you all very much for your time and interest this morning. We appreciate it and a lot of good questions. Please reach out to the IR team if you have any follow-ups, so we look forward to catching up with you soon. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. That does conclude -- we appreciate everyone's participation. Have a great day, and you may now disconnect.
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Merck & Co. — Cidara Therapeutics, Inc., Merck & Co., Inc. - M&A Call
Merck & Co. — Cidara Therapeutics, Inc., Merck & Co., Inc. - M&A Call
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Merck übernimmt Cidara und dessen CD388, ein potenziell first‑in‑class, langwirksames, strain‑agnostisches Antiviral zur saisonalen Influenza‑Prävention (Phase III ANCHOR; FDA Fast Track/Breakthrough). Kaufpreis $221.50/Aktie (~$9,2 Mrd.), erwarteter Abschluss Q1 2026; Management sieht >$5 Mrd. Umsatzpotenzial.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Wissenschaft: CD388 = zanamivir‑Fc‑Konjugat mit verlängerter Halbwertszeit; Phase IIb primärer Endpunkt positiv, bis zu 76% Wirksamkeit bei Höchstdosis; hoher präklinischer Resistenzbarriere‑Hinweis.
- Markt: Adressierbare US‑Population ~110 Mio. (85 Mio. mit Komorbiditäten, 25 Mio. ≥65); Produkt soll Impfstoffe ergänzen, saisonunabhängig schützen.
- Finanzen: Transaktion ≈$9,2 Mrd.; Finanzierung vorwiegend über neue Schulden/Commercial Paper; kein erwarteter Kreditrating‑Impact; Bilanz: ≈$9 Mrd. R&D‑Charge (~$3.65/Aktie) und ≈–$0.30 EPS erstes Jahr.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Konkrete Kaufpreis‑ und Accounting‑Details, EPS‑Schätzung, Q1‑2026 Abschlussannahme, Merck‑Pläne zur Verlagerung der Produktion in US‑Standorte, Marktstudien mit Preisindikatoren bis ≈$600; Interimsanalyse nach erster Grippesaison.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Herstellung: Übergang von WuXi‑Fertigung erwartet; Merck plant langfristige Herstellung in US‑Werken; CMC‑Integration und Ramp‑Up werden thematisiert.
- Studie/Regulierung: ACIP‑Beteiligung nicht zwingend; Phase III auf 60% Effektivität gepowert; Interimsanalyse kann Sample‑Size erhöhen; Frühstopp für Futility möglich, aber als unwahrscheinlich eingeschätzt.
- Marktzugang: Preis/Erstattung zentral—Cidara‑Forschung nannte bis ~$600; Fokus auf bereits in Gesundheitsnetz integrierte Hochrisiko‑Patienten; Real‑World‑Evidence nach Zulassung geplant.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Auswirkung: Merck sichert sich ein spätphasiges, potentiell wachstumsstarkes Asset mit hohem Upside (> $5 Mrd.), bezahlt jedoch kurzfristig signifikant (Bilanzcharge, ≈–$0.30 EPS). Der Wert für Aktionäre hängt vom Phase‑III‑Erfolg, Zulassung/Erstattung und erfolgreicher Kommerzialisierung ab.
Merck & Co. — 7th Annual Healthcare Symposium
1. Management Discussion
So our final panel of the day is about vaccines. Everyone, if we could please quiet down, if you don't mind. Thank you.
So our final panel today is on vaccine access and development. I'm joined here by my colleague, research analyst, Elena Meng from Gabelli Funds; Michelle Kehily, VP U.S. Pediatric and Pipeline Vaccines at Merck; Dr. Stephen Morse, Professor of Epidemiology at Columbia Mailman School of Public Health; Michael Paas, VP, Head of Value & Access at AbbVie; and finally, Magdalena Sobieszczyk, if I pronounced that right, Chief of Infectious Diseases at Columbia Irving Medical Center. Thank you, all of you.
2. Question Answer
All right. Let's get started. Welcome, everyone. So for our vaccine panel, we're going to be focusing on intersection of science, public trust and health system resilience. Vaccines remain one of the most powerful drivers of life expectancy and economic stability. Yet confidence has become increasingly polarized. Access remains uneven across income levels and regions and innovation faces policy and funding headwinds. So today, we're going to be here and pike how we can rebuild trust, strengthen surveillance, ensure equitable distribution and prepare for future pathogens.
II'm thrilled to dive in. So Michelle, let's start with you. Vaccine hesitancy now extends beyond misinformation. It reflects broader societal and political device, right? From your vantage point of leading the U.S. commercialization at Merck, how has vaccine confidence shifted at the parent and community level? And what strategies have worked best in rebuilding the trust?
Thanks, Elena. I will answer this question with the lens of pediatric vaccination. And I will start by saying that having been in the space now for a few years, that vaccine hesitancy is not a new phenomenon. Actually, there has been hesitancy and questions around vaccination for as long as there have been vaccines. Having said that, there has been an acceleration in the hesitancy in concerns in skepticism around vaccination over the last 5 to 10 years. And our research has told us that the percentage of parents who are vehemently opposed to vaccination has increased from around 5% to 10% in the last 5 years.
Having said that, though, a majority of parents today still do choose vaccination for their children. And actually, when we look across -- even looking across political parties, we still see a vast majority of parents would choose routine childhood vaccination. It's a little bit different when we talk about seasonal vaccination like COVID vaccination, for example, which is much more polarizing. But when we look at sort of classic routine childhood vaccination that's been around for decades, there's more common ground than we think because the minority tends to be quite vocal.
To the second part of the question, which is around trust, and there was a conversation about trust in the prior panel, which I thought was quite interesting, what we see is that the trust in institutions has declined significantly, but the trust in health care professionals has not. So the pediatrician remains the #1 source of trusted information for parents. And then, of course, there is the trust from local peer influencing bodies. So if you have, for example, we talk a lot about the downsides of social media and TikTok and Instagram, but if you have a local pediatrician who's also on TikTok, they can be an incredibly important voice from a parental perspective.
Thank you, Michelle. Turning to you, Michael. So how does value and access help counter misinformation and support clearer communication with the public?
Yes, it's a great question. Maybe I'll start with the sort of obligatory pharma disclaimer, right, which is, I'm not here representing my company per se, which is AbbVie. I'm speaking more generally about the industry and specifically about value and access functions or market access functions in general. So with that caveat, maybe let me back up a little bit and say, well, so you asked about what does value and access do. Maybe I need to talk a little bit about what that is, right?
And unlike some other pharmaceutical functions where by reading it, you really can't tell from the name what we do, value and access is sort of pretty evident in the title, right? So we focus on the value of our medicines, communicating that value, demonstrating that value, and we also focus on then trying to get access for our patients. Now this is a thorny problem, as you can imagine, because obviously, cost is an element in this equation. And you mentioned trust and vaccine hesitancy before, Michelle. I think this is a major issue that we also have to overcome. But we also have to know who we, as Value & Access or market access talk to, right?
We talk to the payers or the health technology agencies, the HTAs and other health decision-makers. And so we're focused on interfacing with entities who make decisions for access for patients at the population level. So we need to communicate to them about population level issues. And in order to be effective, we need to be able to bring robust credible evidence but put that into terms that the population level decision-maker also cares about. It's one thing to nicely talk about cost-effectiveness ratios and thresholds and things like that.
But if you're talking to a market that has a budget envelope of money for health care and you're outside of that envelope, well, you can talk about cost effectiveness until you're blue in the face, and it's not really going to matter because ultimately, it's about the budget impact. So it's coming with trusted information to those health care decision-makers, but it's going beyond that. It's really translating the information that we develop scientifically and holistically representing the value of the vaccine and communicating that in a way, translating that science and translating that holistic value.
So there, I'm talking about maybe things like productivity gains or educational attainment gains, societal benefits that come with vaccines, translating that more broadly and putting that into terms that might have a broader impact. There are some studies out there, depends on which methodology you use that say that $1 invested in vaccines generate somewhere $20 to $30 to even $50 in ROI. So that's a pretty powerful statement, right?
And if you can communicate that along with the benefits that you're bringing and give the health care decision-makers confidence that the medicine also comes with the sort of prerequisites of safety and all of the other things that you expect to have for medicines, I think that's a start towards changing some of that. But we're not always the best messengers for this message. I mean, it's not a secret that pharma has an image problem and a trust problem, right? And so sometimes, I think it's better if the message doesn't come from us. We're going to deliver that message anyway. We have to, to the HTAs and so forth.
But if we can work, like Michelle said, with some of the trusted partners out there in the health care community, PCPs, local pharmacists in your community are highly trusted actually, right? So if we can provide them with information that's factual, not biased, but they can use it to represent the value of the medicine and talk to patients coming in, I think that's another step in the right direction.
That's very helpful. Now turning to you, Dr. Morse, right? From a public health perspective, what broader forces are driving hesitancy today beyond misinformation?
Thank you. One is fear. I think we've heard a lot about trust, and this is a time during which there is a great deal of uncertainty. I think the world is in many ways, in turmoil. It's gotten worse, not better since the COVID pandemic. And I think people are fearful, they're uncertain. Many of the same factors that really drive Wall Street are responsible for some of the vaccine refusal or vaccine hesitancy. And I'm glad to see you use the word vaccine confidence here. Heidi Larson, who I think coined the term originally vaccine hesitancy. Now her project is called the Vaccine Confidence Project.
So I think it's important to think positively about this, and that's one of the problems. There's always been fear. But I think the other problem besides fear, besides the political divisions that -- and the misinformation you mentioned is that, in a sense, vaccines have become victims of their own success. In many ways, they really have been so good that people today, especially parents of today, very often have never seen any of the vaccine preventable diseases that we want them to take or give their children vaccines for.
So MMR, for example, I'm old enough to have actually had measles. And when I was growing up, about 500,000 kids a year in the United States were reported to have measles according to CDC, probably more. Now there are just little pockets largely of places where you have under vaccination or other reasons that people don't take the vaccine. So they don't think it's a problem anymore in terms of their risk-benefit calculation, they see the risk. There's some possible risk of the vaccine. They don't see the benefit because these are preventable, and we've essentially put them out of site for people.
Right. Absolutely. Turning to you, Dr. Sobieszczyk. So in the clinical setting, how do you distinguish legitimate concerns from the entrenched anti-vaccine beliefs? And how do your approach differ?
Yes. That's a good question. So I think it oftentimes starts with a conversation with the patients trying to really discern and understand what are kind of individual drivers of decision-making for them about vaccines or any actually sort of choices about their health care. And so it starts with an open-ended conversation and open-ended questions, which oftentimes we as providers are not very good at asking yourself, especially since oftentimes we have sort of limited time for these interactions and engagement and you have to go through a whole series of issues to cover.
So that's sort of a challenge for sure. But I think kind of these open-ended questions really kind of help you discern whether it's someone who just has legitimate concerns that can be addressed about the safety of the vaccines or side effects, et cetera, and how does it fit into their life? And is it convenient for them to get it at this particular time? And those questions can be answered easily versus some of the sort of more complicated questions about kind of really being anti-vaccine or opposed to vaccines because of concerns and sort of things that people see and information or misinformation they see in the media, I think that takes time to address, and it's a process.
So the way I sort of think about it personally with my patients is it's a journey, right? We're embarking on a journey about like some vaccines are routine kind of Michelle as you were saying and maybe kind of normalizing that sort of the respiratory virus vaccines are kind of just sort of bringing them in the context of something that just should be routine, can be given bundled together, your influenza, your COVID, your RSV vaccine, if appropriate. Let's give it together and some of them are on an annual basis, but it may take a few months to get people to that time point. So it's good to start early to really kind of to get people to the point of being ready to take a vaccine.
It does take time. I think patients sort of always say, I don't want you to be judgmental. I don't want you to lecture me, just give me the facts, give me the information in a very kind of nonjudgmental way. And the other thing we talked about the role of providers and also community members and influencers because people -- yes, I find that people listen to their providers, but they also listen to kind of their trusted sort of either -- trusted influencers on TikTok or on Instagram and elders, church leaders, et cetera, the kind of community members. So I think it's kind of -- there needs to be sort of partnership with these entities also to really kind of change people's thinking and bring them to the point of where they're ready to get vaccinated if it ends sort of then kind of understanding the implications of it for their health and the health of their community.
Yes, having the right people advocating the right group of people. Now we want to dive in a little bit about access and affordability. So Michelle, with COVID funding winding down right now, right? So what are the biggest risks to maintain equitable broad access?
So again, I will tackle this from the lens of pediatric vaccines. And as a person who's worked in many different countries around the world, you might be surprised to learn that from a pediatric vaccines perspective, there's actually very good access. If you consider access to mean reimbursement or the ability to pay for that intervention. And the reason that I say that is when we look at commercial coverage insurers, insurers are generally very willing to cover vaccines. They're also mandated to cover vaccines that are recommended at a federal level.
But even -- my hypothesis would be that even without that mandate, our conversations with payers is that they are generally seeing vaccination as a very cost-effective intervention, which I think you just had mentioned. And then from the point of view of those children who are not covered from -- with -- through commercial insurance, there is a program, which is called the Vaccines for Children Program, was actually instituted in the '80s under the Ronald Reagan administration at that time, which provides zero cost coverage for children who are not covered by commercial insurance. So -- and that's actually 50% of America's children are covered by that program, which is immense.
So I would say that access from that perspective is in quite a good spot right now in the pediatric space. And we certainly hope that, that will be maintained over time. Now if you think about access a little differently, which is access to the right information or access to health care, then you may take a little bit of a different lens and then you will start to see some of these pockets of undervaccinated children, and that's for reasons that are not so much to do with cost as they are to do with other drivers of access.
Right. Let's take a broader look internationally. I think U.S. has done a really fantastic job on this. Michael, to you, let's say, in a constrained pricing environment worldwide, right? How do you preserve incentives for innovation while keeping vaccines accessible?
Yes. That's a super important question. I think I'll start by saying, let's just understand the economics of biopharmaceuticals. And if you want to sum it up very simply, they're risky, expensive and lengthy, right, to get them to market. And so companies are in the business of profit and need to earn at least money sufficient on what they're putting out there in the marketplace so that they can keep making products and investing and elevating those products, getting better products to the market.
We benefit today from so many second, third, fourth, fifth generation products that wouldn't have come if the first generation didn't survive, right? So that's an important thing to understand. But you can talk about all that stuff to a market, a lower middle-income country that just doesn't have the money, the budget to pay the price that, let's say, Western markets are paying. And so this is a problem. I think there are and health economics and cost effectiveness kind of goes out the window when you're talking about budget impact and budget constraints, right?
So this is where you have to get creative and flexible and think about what are the levers that you can manage if you work in a partnership with countries or with governmental or nongovernmental agencies, these public-private partnerships. And so you've got price that you can work on as a lever. You've got volume that you can work on as a lever and you can manage the risk or the uncertainty. And here, I'm talking about the uncertainty maybe for the market, for the country because maybe they're not fully confident in the benefit of your medicine.
And you can also talk about the uncertainty on the manufacturer side, which is they're not confident that they're going to have enough demand in the market so that they can actually profitably sell their product. So that's where you have creative and innovative solutions that have come up since the mid-2000s, like the Gavi Alliance and work that was done in pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. You've got the COVAX essentially consortium and pooled purchasing that happened in multiple countries, but in Europe, in particular, I think, spent tens of billions of dollars to basically make advanced market commitments and advanced market contracts for volume manufacturers were then able to develop the vaccines, knowing that there was a market there and a negotiated price point was also acceptable to the markets.
And the benefit also to the markets was they secured supply of vaccine, which in something like a pandemic, you want to make sure that you actually have supply. So there are all kinds of strategies that are out there already that I think many companies have explored and countries have explored to work on that sort of price volume and uncertainty equation. But you've got to start again with value and make sure that people understand the value of that medicine.
And if they understand the value, then you start to talk about, okay, how can we find a solution to make sure that all the appropriate patients can get access to that and that you guys have -- you manufacturers, let's say, have a business. And in the Gavi case, that worked very well. In fact, they created second-generation vaccines as a consequence of that. So they had continued business in those markets and it vaccinated over, I think, 200 million children.
That's a great example. Now let's expand a little bit on global -- from the global systems angle. Dr. Morse, so how do you think an improved global surveillance direct strengthen the equitable vaccine manufacturing and distribution?
Well, thank you for that question. As you know, this is a personal kind of passion of mine. So I appreciate the question. I think surveillance is important in every aspect, really from the beginning right through the time that we were seeing effects or looking at the effects, but when you think about the eradication of smallpox, for example, the one human infectious disease that was actually eradicated by human activity, that was done through vaccination. And in the end stages, the later stages, instead of being able to do mass vaccination, which was the original plan, but it was not feasible.
The idea then was to do surveillance and then what Bill Foege called surveillance/containment, the ring vaccination we hear about so that you would do surveillance in an area where there might be a problem of pockets of smallpox or cases and then vaccinate around there, vaccinate the surrounding communities to prevent the disease to prevent the infection from moving because you had all these people who have now been protected and were no longer susceptible. So surveillance played a role there, but I think it can play a role everywhere.
So equity is a problem with something like vaccines because biologicals in general are much more difficult to produce than many of the medicinal chemical products. So -- and I think there's a lot of interest in trying to regionalize vaccine manufacturing, in which case you could concentrate once you found there was a problem, you could concentrate, for example, mpox, formerly known as monkeypox Clade IIb, the West African variety, which had actually been a problem for a number of years in Nigeria had there been good surveillance and a good approach to providing the vaccines that we have. This probably could have been stopped long before it became essentially a pandemic worldwide. So there are, I think, a number of ways in which we can improve not only equity, which is, I think, still a major problem.
Yes, these are great.
But also our awareness.
Yes. Turning to you, Dr. Sobieszczyk. What are some, let's say, practical barriers clinication phase? Is it insurance, eligibility, workflow when implementing new vaccines, like, for example, like RSV?
Yes. No, that's sort of something that's very much kind of at the forefront of the minds of the health system and also the clinic and the clinician. So I think some of the practical barriers kind of real world when you're in the trenches in the clinic, a lot of it sort of also comes down to kind of to having the time to even bring up the issue of sort of vaccines. You're due for your vaccine today or it's vaccine -- or respiratory viral infection season is coming up. Let's get you vaccinated.
When I say time is because oftentimes, these conversations are not simple, as we talked about earlier, and they get left to the end of the appointment. And so oftentimes sort of get forgotten. So even that tiny little thing, such as kind of having time during the encounter to bring up especially new vaccines, it's a big barrier kind of when implementing something. And then in terms of kind of thinking really about the workflow, what is the workflow in the clinic going to look like so that individual is not inconvenience, doesn't have to stay much longer to administer -- to get the vaccine administered during their encounter.
And that -- what is influenced by that are simple things or seemingly simple things like where is the vaccine stored? Is it -- does it have to be in a temperature-controlled setting? And if so, can that be in a pharmacy that's distant from the clinic or a pharmacy that's sort of adjacent to the clinic or close to the clinic because that really has implications for going to get that vaccine, how is it stock, how many do you have in your clinic so that when you're having that meaningful encounter with the patient, hey, are you ready to get vaccinated today? Yes, ops, where is the vaccine? Do we have it? Do we not have it? So that kind of figuring all of that out in advance is really important.
And then I think sort of creating kind of reminders and prompts for providers to remember to bring up the issue of the vaccines and kind of an eligibility. Are you above the age of X, Y and Z and are you eligible for that vaccine? So that even actually sort of are bigger barriers than talking with insurance companies about whether or not it's reimbursed because as we talked earlier, majority of vaccines, if they're authorized and approved for that particular age group, it's not an issue in terms of getting them reimbursed in the clinic.
Right. Well, now we have talked about trust. We have talked about accessibility. I want to dive in a little bit more about science, about innovation, right? Dr. Morse, given your work with the Nobel laureate, Shimon Sakaguchi on regulatory T cells, so how could new understanding of immune tolerance shape the next generation of vaccines?
Yes. Thank you. I think the immune system is really one of the things we're beginning to appreciate and understand. And I had the honor and pleasure when I was a young faculty member at Rockefeller of collaborating with Shimon, who is really -- it's a testament, I think, to perseverance and science as well as brilliance that he had ideas about autoimmunity and how that could be controlled. And we now have things -- we have concepts like the regulatory T cell, which can be applied in a number of different ways.
So I think there are many applications for example, for the regulatory T cell, certainly controlling autoimmunity and trying to modulate the beneficial versus the perhaps less beneficial effects of vaccines. In some individuals, there may be people who don't respond well, and that also is a part of the immune system we're beginning to understand. So the regulation of the immune system is an important part of understanding not only autoimmunity, but how we can improve the response, possibly even the duration of vaccines.
But I think what it indicates is that this is the host response in the immune system, which for a long time was thought to be almost a black box in essence, is really beginning to be much better understood and now can be applied. At the molecular level, so much more is understood about how these cells can be manipulated to do things that are beneficial. And that's in every aspect, vaccines, but also cancer. And there are concepts, Peter Medawar years ago -- Nobel laureate of some years ago, actually had the concept of developing cancer vaccines. And there have been thoughts about that, that I see are coming back. So there's just a lot of untapped potential there.
To expand on that, Michael, turning to you. So how do you communicate the broader societal and economic value of new vaccines technologies to, let's say, payers and policymakers.
Yes. So again, a great question, and it's a little bit of art and science, I would say. There's not necessarily one formula to it. But I think the first thing is to approach it from a broader definition of value than often gets put out there, which is just talking about cost or cost offsets or things like that. So I like to think about value in more holistic terms. So we're thinking about what's the clinical value, but we're also thinking about what's the economic or health economic value of the product. And beyond that, what's the value to society or the humanistic value to the patient, right?
So I think we need to be able to get underneath the concept of value a little bit and also recognize that not every stakeholder that we talk to, not everybody we talk to about our product will care about all of those dimensions of value. That's a reality. the sort of company or the progenitor of that vaccine need to be able to articulate that, right? So it starts with sort of that holistic concept. I think if you go walk down the street and you bump into a health economist of which disclaimer #2, I'm not. But if you were to bump into one and ask them what they thought about vaccines, they'd say, well, those are positive externalities. They would say that these are things that have value beyond the use that the person who takes it has, right?
You get things like herd immunity, you get disease avoidance, right? You get productivity. You get all these benefits to a broader group in society that's actually not factored into the price of that product. And so I think we need to have that conversation. And I think we, as pharma industry need to get better at telling that story in a way that's impactful.
So not tons and tons of spreadsheets and models and things that aren't trusted, but also working with academia, working with other third parties who can lend their voice and credibility to what we're also saying about this broader holistic value of the product. So I think it starts with doing that better and then recognizing sort of pragmatically that not everything I care about or say is valuable about this might be equally valuable to who's listening, right, and be able to navigate through that.
Absolutely. Now let's talk a little bit about commercial readiness. So Michelle, vaccine launches, as we all know, depends on ACIP, state uptake and payer readiness. So what would most helpful streamline and accelerate the future vaccine access?
Yes. So product launches are important. And I think it was mentioned earlier that the way that we think about product development is it's time consuming. So one of my teams launched a product this year. That product was in development for more than 10 years, full of risk all the way through that 10-year journey and then there's regulatory risk. And then there is, of course, it's very capital intensive in terms of manufacturing, really setting up the infrastructure to manufacture a product to be able to make it available worldwide or even only in the U.S. So inherently, product launch is risky.
And then this year, it has felt more risky than usual just because there's been so much uncertainty in the environment. So I think from -- the first thing I would say is from a leadership point of view, the key piece is to figure out what are all those milestones along the way to launch a product that we can influence and how can we approach that with a leaning in kind of a mindset? How are we going to work with stakeholders? How are we going to work within a shifting environment to be able to anticipate the scenarios that are going to emerge and how are we going to ultimately be successful?
The other thing I would say about launch now more than ever from an industry point of view is that it's really all about speed. Because we have a limited time when the product is on the market before LOE, loss of exclusivity, it means that we need to be getting ready for launch years ahead of commercialization and engaging with stakeholders and helping the market really understand what is the value of this new asset and then breaking down every step, how do we get the product to market, how do we shorten our supply chain requirements, how do we get to commercial coverage as quickly as possible. Every single element of that launch needs to be evaluated for speed and effectiveness in the environment that we're in today.
Understood. Now before I open to Q&A, Dr. Sobieszczyk, what does anticipatory R&D pipeline look like for, let's say, pandemic preparation or for neglected diseases?
Yes. No, that's a tough question. So in the absence of having a crystal ball where you can kind of predict exactly sort of what's around the corner and where we should be investing in, I think some key things to keep in mind. And maybe also just to sort of say that one thing that we've definitely noticed that there's been a waning interest in pandemic preparedness, I sort of feel like unless there was sort of a disaster that just happened or is about to happen, you kind of forget about the fact that there may be new ones around the corner.
But I think some of the things of kind of key elements of what this anticipatory R&D pipeline should look like are kind of things investment essentially in surveillance we talked about and this is surveillance -- disease surveillance, so sort of what pathogens are circulating in the communities and populations in the world now and what's around the corner in order to be able to sort of anticipate kind of what kind of an intervention or a vaccine needs to be designed.
And I'm actually a big fan of the sort of this concept of environmental and wastewater surveillance, which when done right, can really lend amazingly rich information with sort of the genomic tools that are available right now to understand what is kind of this spatial and temporal prevalence of certain pathogens, how are they emerging, where are they emerging and how are they evolving over time in order to kind of anticipate what do you need to design to what kind of a vaccine or therapeutic do you need to design in order to sort of kind of to be ready?
And sort of coupled with that, I think, is also sort of the idea of investing in basic science research. I mean I think we all know it's important. But one thing I would sort of emphasize that is there's a lot of kind of exciting work happening kind of in the multi-omic world, transcriptomics, genomics, proteomics, where you can actually sort of understand kind of -- you need to understand what is the impact of the environment, health, microbiome, et cetera, and human -- and your kind of host genetics on the response to the vaccine, the immune response to the vaccine, how is the vaccine going to behave in a certain environment.
And knowing that, I think, will help us sort of design or helps us design better immunogen, better vaccines, understand what do you need to target on that pathogen in order to be ready for that mutated pathogen or kind of whatever is next around the corner. And you can even perhaps develop vaccines that are effective against multiple pathogens. Can you imagine that? Like you're telling someone, you only need 1 vaccine. You don't need 5, you only need 1 vaccine.
But I think that's a reality of something that's possible, especially with the help of, do I say, AI, which can kind of help shorten that time line of sort of understanding what kind of epitopes do you need to include in the vaccine and how to kind of understand the vaccine effectiveness. And then just one other thing kind of investment in clinical trial infrastructure to kind of test these products and then investment in implementation science research, so we can understand what is kind of the evolution of public trust, public readiness, stakeholder readiness to kind of to implement and deploy these vaccines when they are when they are ready to be deployed. Because you're right, like it's expensive to bring these products to the clinic, to the population. How do we shorten that pipeline? And I think we have some tools available that will enable us to do that. We just have to kind of use them wisely.
Yes. There's certainly a lot going on, a lot of effort putting into this space. Now let's open for questions.
Please raise your hand if you have a question.
My name is Mahim. I'm a student at the Mailman School of Public Health, and I'm interested in pediatric public health policy. And curious to learn from Michelle on what suggestions you have on translating policy so that parents are better informed about vaccines are more likely to comply with the guidelines when there's so much confusing information that we can say from a consumer standpoint?
Yes, that's an important question. I don't think I have the answer necessarily, but I can say that I have spent in the last few years, a lot of time talking to immunization managers, for example, in states or in cities to really try to understand some of how this works, how does a policy go from policy through to implementation. And it's a little bit where we were going on the vaccine confidence front. I think it's incredibly -- it's not just about the content of how information is transmitted. It's also about the voice, who is transmitting. I think it's been said a few times, who is delivering the message is really key.
And what I find interesting is that the more our world has become globalized and information has become accessible everywhere, the more local voices have become the most trusted. And we talked about, I think you said faith leaders and local influencers Pediatricians are very trusted and rightly so, I have to say I've worked with many different types of doctors in my career, but pediatricians are the best. And so those are really the voices of trust in terms of translating policy objectives into implementation. Yes. I'm sure there are other opinions across the panel.
If I can just add to that, I think an important component is you're right, kind of having these trusted voices on an individual level is incredibly important. But I think empowering these voices to be able to deliver that message is incredibly important and providing them the right tools over time to be able to do that. So education and training and for providers as well, actually, so that they have the confidence in being the trusted voices to deliver these messages, I think it's important.
We sort of talked about how kind of sort of that type of education has to start at the medical school level and the public school level, et cetera, where kind of the -- you can empower these young individuals to be able to kind of deliver these messages, I think it's important.
[indiscernible] I'm curious, we just heard a lot about multi-cancer screening and using different type of sampling to understand whether there is already cancer and then thought about the -- how to get to the intervention side seamlessly. Thinking about the prevention side and now the medical prevention through vaccines, where do you see maybe new developments or what might have a strong impact from the data that you can gather from all these tests that are being done for the cancer diagnostics and early detection so that you can develop better vaccines that prevent all of that from happening because you have all that data.
Yes. No, that's a good question. I think one way -- and it's about sort of understanding the host what is kind of the susceptibility of that host to cancer, but also the susceptibility of that host to infection because that host's sort of immune system, for example, sort of shapes the response to the vaccine and shapes the response to the pathogen as well.
So kind of understanding what that dynamic is from the samples that are collected sort of in other settings, actually, I think, is incredibly valuable in understanding what is going to be this kind of this dance between the host and the pathogen and then you introduce the vaccine into it and how is that modulated by the vaccine. So I think kind of having a clear understanding of exactly kind of the host susceptibility to cancer and other sort of infections and what is there -- what are kind of the underpinnings of the immune system will be -- has the potential to be incredibly helpful in understanding how to kind of personalize and almost do almost like precision vaccination, right, for that individual. I think that's kind of where the excitement is, at least that's how I see it.
And these markers also represent potential targets. We have a number of targeted therapies that are based on unknown genes that are expressed. In some cases, their growth factor receptors that are expressed or overexpressed in cancer cells. And it's interesting that the mRNA vaccines that have become so useful and so important now in -- beginning with SARS coronavirus 2 and COVID now were originally really thought of as being anticancer agents, and they haven't really reached that stage of development yet because they've been so useful as vaccines, but hopefully, that will open up the door.
Thank you. Follow-up to his question. Do you think AI could help to facilitate and probably connecting all the dots together to make it possible?
Can you speak a little bit louder.
Yes. Follow up with this question, do you think AI technology could help to facilitate the process and also connecting the dots was probably impossible to be connected before to facilitate the process?
Not an AI expert, so third disclaimer of the day. But we have a lot of people internally who are researching, leveraging AI in early development through to commercialization. I'm sure you do as well, right? This is -- everybody is doing it. And as I think we said earlier, one of the fundamental problems is the time it takes for things and the cost. And the cost is often because you have a lot of mistakes, things that don't work.
If you can reduce the number of those things, and there are a lot of companies that are aiming at early development and discovery to try to reduce the faults paths you can go down and spend money on and focus in on things that are likely to be successful, you can shorten that time line potentially. And you may be able to make something better than maybe just pure trial and error would have done as well. So I think there's a lot of promise. There's a lot of hype, but there's also a lot of activity and investment going on in AI in the application to therapeutics, vaccines, you name it.
Yes. No, I completely agree. And I think sort of the way I also think about it is that we're generating a lot of data and a lot of information about even like the immune system's response to a vaccination, sort of transcriptomics, proteomics, et cetera, genomics to kind of understand the influence of sort of other factors, it's whole lot of data. How do you analyze it really quickly in order to be able to understand what is kind of the optimal response, immune response we are thinking to kind of -- we're looking for to hone in on what would be an effective or efficacious vaccine.
So AI can help do that, can kind of lead to that process. And same with -- we were talking about sort of the messaging, what messages to develop to an individual who is vaccine -- anti-vaccines, who is just concerned about vaccines or sort of precontemplated. So you can sort of think about AI -- using AI to monitor kind of what the public attitudes are at a particular time in a particular area and then help distill that into some sort of trusted messages to be delivered by, I would say, a person, I think that trusted kind of individual.
And so I think there is a lot of excitement about that. I think one kind of sense just always -- as I always sort of when I -- we talk about AI because we do a lot of that work with our patients sort of trying to get -- understand from them what are their attitudes towards AI, how do they see that fit into their care and into health care is I think there needs to be very -- a lot of transparency in how AI is used in the process, kind of ethical communication around it and sort of to make sure that kind of the data that are put in are not sort of all accurate in the sort of data sharing agreements, et cetera. But I think I agree with you, there's a lot of excitement about that and worthwhile investment.
And I think we've got time for one last question from the audience.
I have a question for the vaccine. It used to be a very preventive [indiscernible] for the infectious disease. But nowadays, for example, like the HCV, HIV already have a very good treatment. For example, the PEP treatment have effectiveness of over 99%, make the development of HIV vaccine less urgent. So I am wondering what is the next growing point of the vaccine industry since the traditional infectious disease already have a very low profit margin? There are so many manufacturers there. Is that would be like, for example, the cancer vaccine or a vaccine platform can be quick response? Or are there any like focused area?
So I can -- if I understand the question correctly, you're sort of highlighting how there are lots of wonderful therapeutics, right, for some -- for many infectious diseases and you use the example of HIV and other kind of viral as one example, why would you need a vaccine? How does that fit into kind of the niche of the sort of kind of preventive and therapeutic sort of omentarium? And I would just sort of say that a lot of it comes down to choices, having a choice of what modality you're going to use to prevent a particular illness.
Maybe it's an antiviral that you want to take that has indeed like lenacapavir for HIV has incredible efficacy in clinical trials and now sort of as it's being rolled out. But some individuals, for example, don't either don't have access to it. It's prohibitively expensive or they don't like the side effect profile. So then having an option of a vaccine is actually attractive because you have choices, right?
I think people kind of want to have a toolbox, a prevention or a therapeutic toolbox that they can reach for and they can make a decision with their providers as to what is the best thing for them at that particular time in life. So I think there is always sort of a platform for developing vaccines even for infections for which we have really good treatments. I'm not sure if I'm answering your question. I think...
Great. Then that concludes our vaccine panel.
Everyone stick around for 2 more minutes. So I just want to thank everyone for coming. Thank you to all of our panelists, Carri Chan, of course, all the teammates here at Gabelli and everyone from Columbia and of course, all of the attendees for coming. We, Gabelli, we care about your physical health. We also care about your financial health. So feel free to scan that QR code here, talk to one of the teammates. There's another one out in the posters out in front, and we look forward to seeing you next year. And around the same time, as well. And just to put a little plug for our other conferences we host. Next one coming up will be one about our Pump, Valve and Water Systems Symposium, February 26, right here in New York. So thank you, everybody.
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Merck & Co. — 7th Annual Healthcare Symposium
Merck & Co. — 7th Annual Healthcare Symposium
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kurz: Panel fokussierte auf Vertrauen, Zugang und Vorbereitung: Vertrauen in Institutionen sinkt, Vertrauen in Ärzt:innen (insb. Pädiater:innen) bleibt hoch; Zugang zu Kinderimpfungen in den USA weitgehend gesichert; Forschung, Surveillance und Betrieb (Workflow, Lagerung) sind Schlüssel für künftige Impfstoff‑Deployments.
✨ Strategische Highlights
- Vertrauen: Pädiater:innen sind primäre, vertrauenswürdige Kommunikatoren; lokale Fürsprecher (Kirche, Apotheker:innen) wichtig.
- Zugang: Impfprogramme wie Vaccines for Children decken viele Kinder (Panel nannte ~50% der US‑Kinder) und Payer sehen Impfungen als kosteneffektiv.
- Marktmechanik: Preis‑Volumen und Risikoteilung (z. B. Gavi, COVAX, Advanced Market Commitments) sind erforderlich, um Anreize für Innovation in preissensitiven Märkten zu erhalten.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Konkrete Daten: Anteil der Eltern, die Impfungen vehement ablehnen, wurde im Panel von ~5% auf ~10% in fünf Jahren angegeben.
- Launch‑Praxis: Beispiele: Produktentwicklung >10 Jahre; Launch‑Vorbereitung muss Jahre vorauslaufen, Fokus auf Geschwindigkeit und Supply‑Setup.
- Surveillance: Panel hob Wastewater‑ und genomische Überwachung als zentrale Bausteine für frühzeitige Erkennung und regionale Produktionsplanung hervor.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Policy→Eltern: Wie Politik lokal übersetzt wird: Antwort: lokale, vertraute Stimmen (Pädiater:innen) plus Empowerment/Training wichtig.
- AI‑Rolle: Konsens: großes Potenzial in Entdeckung, Datenanalyse und zielgruppenspezifischer Messaging‑Unterstützung, aber Bedarf an Transparenz und Validierung.
- Zukunftsfelder: Diskussionen zu Krebsimpfstoffen, Plattformen für schnelle Reaktion und die Rolle von Impfstoffen trotz guter Therapeutika (z. B. HIV) — Wahlfreiheit in der Prävention bleibt relevant.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bewertung: Für Anleger signalisiert das Panel kein unmittelbares finanz‑ oder guidance‑relevantes Neuigkeitsereignis, aber klare operative Risiken und Chancen: Nachfrage‑/Akzeptanz‑Risiken durch Vertrauensverlust, zugleich langfristiger Wert von Impfstoffen (hoher ROI‑Narrativ) und wachsender Bedarf an Surveillance, regionaler Fertigung und schnellerer Markteinführung.
Merck & Co. — Shareholder/Analyst Call - Merck & Co., Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Welcome to the Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, New Jersey, U.S.A. AHA Investor Event. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Peter Dannenbaum from Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Thank you, Ivy. Good evening, and welcome to Merck's investor event coinciding with the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions 2025. Thank you to those of us here in New Orleans and also to those participating via the webcast. We appreciate your interest in Merck.
Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that some of the statements that we make today may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are made based on the current beliefs of our company's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. If our underlying assumptions prove inaccurate or uncertainties materialize, actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.
Our SEC filings, including Item 1A in the 2024 10-K, identify certain risk factors and cautionary statements that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from those projected in any of our forward-looking statements made today. The Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, New Jersey, U.S.A. undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.
During today's call, a slide presentation will accompany our speakers' prepared remarks. These slides and our SEC filings are all posted to the Investor Relations section of our company's website.
Now moving to the agenda. Speaking on today's call will be Dr. Dean Li, President, Merck Research Laboratories; Dr. Joerg Koglin, Senior Vice President, Head of General and Specialty Medicine Global Clinical Development; and Jannie Oosthuizen, President, U.S. Human Health. The full biographies of the speakers can be found in the appendix of the slide presentation.
Dean will start our prepared remarks with an overview of our cardiometabolic and respiratory portfolio. Joerg will then highlight the enlicitide data presented at AHA and our development strategy. And Jannie will conclude by discussing how enlicitide fits into Merck's effort to address the silent CV epidemic.
Our upfront remarks will take about 30 minutes, after which we will turn to Q&A. Shama Roberts, Senior Vice President, Global Pharmaceuticals, is also here to assist in responding to potential questions.
With that, I'll turn the stage over to Dean.
Thank you, Peter. Thank you very much, and thank you for joining us in the room and online. Welcome to our investor event in conjunction with the American Heart Association Congress in New Orleans. I am privileged to share the stage with my colleagues across both our research and commercial organizations. And I'm very much looking forward to provide an overview in sharing my enthusiasm for Merck's cardiometabolic and respiratory portfolio.
We have built a broad cardiometabolic and respite to our portfolio that can redefine how these diseases are treated. Starting left to right, for WINREVAIR, we are very pleased with the impact WINREVAIR is having in the real world with positive results from both ZENITH and HYPERION, WINREVAIR continues to generate a wall of data. We look forward to additional opportunities, including showing results of the Phase II CADENCE study and providing updates on the development of the auto-injector.
Next, to Odivir, it is the first novel mechanism for inhaled maintenance treatment of COPD in more than 2 decades. As a dual inhibitor PDE3 and 4, Odivir has both bronchodilator and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory properties. The strong Phase III data culminated in FDA approval in June 2024. There is an ongoing Phase II trial in non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis, which has a primary completion date of September 2026.
And then for enlicitide, we were pleased to share compelling data this weekend for enlicitide, our oral PCSK9 inhibitor. We now have 3 positive pivotal trials from the CORALreef program. This weekend, we presented data from the CORALreef study as well as a CORALreef study focused on familial heterozygous hypercholesterolemia. This has the potential to be the first choice add-on lipid-lowering therapy with monoclonal antibody-like efficacy. We expect filings to begin in early 2026, and longer term, enlicitide has the potential to be an anchor for combination therapy.
The focal point of this event and the data at AHA is WINREVAIR and enlicitide. Evidence continues to accumulate for WINREVAIR's strong clinical benefit across a broad spectrum of patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension. WINREVAIR has generated positive clinical data demonstrated by the sequential studies published in the New England Journal of Medicine. WINREVAIR is having a real impact on patients and has the potential to transform the treatment of PAH.
I'm pleased with the data shared for WINREVAIR this weekend presented by Valerie McLaughlin from the University of Michigan. In these data, there was a pooled post-hoc analysis from all 3 studies that show the effect of WINREVAIR on major morbidity and mortality outcomes in a broad range of the population. There was a 75% reduction in the risk of composite morbidity and mortality endpoint. There was a 56% reduction and risk of lung transplantation or death and a 51% reduction in the risk of death.
On the right is a ZENITH label update for the expanded indication. WINREVAIR is now the first PAH therapy with an indication that includes components of the clinical worsening events hospitalization for PAH, lung transplantation and death.
Odivir is the first novel mechanism for inhaled maintenance treatment of COPD in more than 20 years in an area with significant unmet need. It is the only product to combine bronchodilatory and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory properties in a single molecule. With Odivir as a broad label and favorable benefit risk profile, it has the potential to redefine the maintenance treatment paradigm. Odivir improved symptoms of COPD, enabling better breathing where patients start to feel good. We continue to build on the positive real-world experience, and we have additional opportunities and follow-on indications.
Now to the main event. Enlicitide was designed to target PCSK9 in the same way as the antibodies and deliver antibody-like efficacy. It has shown profound reduction in LDL cholesterol. The CORALreef lipid study demonstrated a reduction of 55.8% in primary analysis and 59.7% in the post hoc reanalysis. In the CORALreef study focused on familial heterozygous hypercholesterolemia demonstrated a reduction of 59.4%. We are pleased with the degree of lipid lowering for the secondary endpoint in ABB with a 50% reduction non-HDL cholesterol with a 53% reduction and Lp(a) with a 28% reduction. These percentages for ApoB and non-HDL cholesterol are aligned with what has been reported for anti-PCSK9 monoclonal antibodies.
The main takeaways before handing it to Joerg, enlicitide achieved LDL-cholesterol reduction surpassing other oral lipid-lowering therapies used as an add-on to statins. Over 2/3 of patients received or achieved rigorous prespecified LDL-cholesterol reduction goals and the ease of use, including an oral formulation with no adverse drug-drug interactions and more than 97% compliant and strong safety and tolerability.
In closing, with efficacy similar to the monoclonal antibodies, enlicitide is a simple, easy-to-use pill that can help address the ongoing cardiovascular disease epidemic with the potential to significantly impact metabolic health globally.
And with that, I will now turn the stage over to Joerg.
Thank you, Dean. Good evening, and hello, everyone. I'm Joerg Koglin, and I lead clinical development for general and specialty medicine at Merck. It's my pleasure to be here today and to provide an overview of the results from our Phase III CORALreef lipids and CORALreef heterozygous HeFE studies evaluating the safety and efficacy of our oral PCSK9 inhibitor enlicitide. These studies were presented yesterday and earlier today in late-breaking science sessions at the conference here in New Orleans. So heterozygous HeFE study also has been published by now in JAMA. The lipid study has been accepted by the New England Journal of Medicine and will be published at a later date.
When I went through my own training as an internist in cardiologist obviously, many years ago, Merck's legacy cardiovascular diseases in general and in atherosclerosis in specific was very obvious. Merck led the way in developing therapies that changed cardiovascular medicine. In atherosclerosis, the approval of lovastatin as the first statin in the late '80s, followed by statin as a better second-generation as well as the development of ezetimibe as a preferred statin add-on spearheaded a new wave of products focused on lowering LDL cholesterol levels and reducing strokes and myocardial infections.
Merck scientists played a foundational role in establishing the current standard of care in lowering in lipid-lowering therapies. Later this upcoming week, actually, the role of the Merck Research Laboratories will be acknowledged by the American Chemistry Society with the designation of the Rahway and West Point sites as ACS National historic landmarks for the pioneering work that led to the discovery and development of the first statin.
Yet despite all that progress in developing increasingly potent lipid-lowering medicines, we remain in the middle of a cardiovascular disease epidemic. Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death in adults worldwide claiming roughly 19 million lives every year. 85% of those tests are attributed to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, or ASCVD. For over a century, cholesterol has been recognized as a major driver of ASCVD, and yet, it is estimated that half of the U.S. general population has elevated blood lipid levels.
Even with major advances in lipid-lowering therapies, residual cardiovascular risk remains high. Less than 30% of all patients actually treated for ASCVD achieved their guideline-recommended LDL goals, reinforcing the need for additional and more effective interventions. So programs that culminated in the discovery and development of enlicitide started to see bold goal to deliver the most effective LDL lowering pit and to make it accessible to a broad range of patients worldwide.
Injectable PCSK9 monoclonal antibodies have set a high bar in clinical studies, achieving LDL lowering by 50% to 60% with significant reductions in major adverse cardiovascular events and a favorable safety profile. However, their use has been limited by the need for injections and by remaining access barriers. Developing an orally bioavailable PCSK9 inhibitor with antibody-like properties, represented a significant medicinal chemistry challenge.
Enlicitide is a novel macrocyclic peptide. So it has been shown to disrupt the binding of PCSK9 to the LDL receptor in a manner similar to that of approved monoclonal antibodies, but is administered only once a day. Similar to antibodies, it absorbs its action at a cell surface without really getting into the cell. And this comes with the expectation to avoid any major safety signals or adverse drug-drug interactions. However, unlike monoclonal antibodies, it can be stored at room temperature, circumvents the need for cold chain transportation, and it can be manufactured and distributed at scale, offering the potential for broad global access.
The Phase III enlicitide development program spans across a broad range of patients with ASCVD. The development program includes the CORALreef lipids, heterozygous FH. And add-on studies, all focused on changes in LDL cholesterol as a basis for an initial filing. In parallel, we have now fully enrolled the CORALreef outcome study designed to show that enlicitide can safely and effectively lower the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events.
Today, we'll talk about CORALreef lipids and heterozygous FH will present the results of the add-on study at a later point of time.
Let me start with CORALreef lipids, our broad hypercholesterolemia study. The study randomized 2,912 participants, 2:1 to enlicitide or placebo. So study focused on patients in need for ease of primary prevention with an LDL of at least 70 or patients following a prior ASCVD event requiring secondary prevention with an LDL higher than 55. All participants had to be unoptimized and stable lipid-lowering therapies. The primary endpoint was the placebo-corrected mean percent change in LDL at week 24 with secondary endpoints, including LDL changes at week 52 and 24-week changes for non-HDL-C, ApoB, Lp(a) and goal attainment rates.
So study population was balanced enrolling a broad and very diverse primary and secondary prevention population. So mean H was 63, 40% were female, almost half of the patients had type 2 diabetes, 60% already had a first event. Most patients were already receiving statin therapy with a mix of moderate and high-intensity regimen. So baseline of the cholesterol average 96-milligram per deciliter.
Enlicitide in this study was very well tolerated with a safety profile similar to placebo. The rates of adverse events, serious adverse events or discontinuation due to adverse events were comparable between those groups that were rare and were also completely balanced. Adherence rates for study drug intervention and for fasting instructions, where with 97% or higher exceptionally high, documenting the ease of use for this medication in our study population.
There were no apparent differences in the proportion of participants with adverse events across any of the major system organ classes between enlicitide and placebo. Please note the absence of any difference in gastrointestinal AEs on musculoskeletal AEs. So in these almost 3,000 patients followed for over a year, the enlicitide safety profile was remarkably similar to placebo.
Now with regard to efficacy. Enlicitide demonstrated robust, statistically significant, clinically profound and durable reductions in LDL-C. When using the data handling rules as specified in the statistical analysis plan which resulted in biologically impossible baseline values in 5 out of the 2,909 patients, the calculated LDL reduction at week 24 was 55.8%. And correcting for these biologically impossible values to obtain the most accurate estimate of the true effect size, the placebo-corrected LDL reduction was 59.7%. The LDL reduction was seen early, was durable over the entire duration of the 52-week study. These levels of LDL reduction delivered on the promise of enlicitide as an oral PCSK9 inhibitor designed to have antibody-like efficacy while surpassing reductions seen with all other oral lipid-lowering therapies, approved or currently known to be in development and used on top or instead of statins.
Designed as the most potent oral lipid lowering solution, we used an exceptionally rigorous definition for goal attainment. Aligned with both the European treatment guidelines and the 2022 ACC/AHA consensus statement, we define goal attainment as an LDL reduction by at least 50% and an absolute LDL attainment of lower than 70 or 55-milligram per deciliter. Even with these ambitious definitions, close to 70% or 2/3 of participants receiving enlicitide achieved these goals regardless of their intensity of background therapy, and this compares to only 1.5% and 1.2% in the placebo group. And using more liberal definitions, such as those used for other compounds approved or in development, goal attainment reached or exceeded 80% as should be expected for best-in-class LDL reductions.
Prespecified secondary endpoints. We also looked at other atherogenic lipoprotein biomarkers. ApoB as a marker of the number of atherogenic particles is recognized as an even stronger predictor of ASCVD risk an LDL-C and is expected to replace LDL-C in treatment guidelines at some point in time. Non-HDL, quantifies the total amount of atherogenic cholesterol including, but not limited to, LDL. As such, it also has been shown to be a better predictor of our disease than LDL-C alone. [indiscernible] is an independent genetic risk factor for ASCVD, and in the past has not been addressed by statins or other widely used lipid-lowering therapies to contrast that slightly increase LPL.
Looking at these parameters, enlicitide, again, produced reductions in each of these endpoints with an [indiscernible] size aligned with the original goal to have antibody-like efficacy. These biomarker findings provide further support for the promise of enlicitide to have a profound impact on outcomes for patients at risk of ASCVD.
Let's quickly look at the CORALreef heterozygous FH study, our second pivotal lipid study focusing on patients with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia. The study enrolled 303 adults with heterozygous FH, randomized 2:1 to either enlicitide or placebo on top of statin therapy. The primary endpoint again was LDL-C change at week 24 with similar secondary endpoints as the CORALreef lipid study.
Again, enlicitide achieved placebo-controlled with 59.4% mean reduction in LDL-C from baseline at week -- week 24 in the heterozygous FH population with evidence of efficacies in early and being durable over the full duration of the study. Comparable to our findings in the main lipid study, these results reinforce the agent's potential in these high-risk genetic populations.
In summary, across the full development program, enlicitide showed consistently robust LDL-C lowering in the range of 57% to almost 60%. These values are consistent with placebo-corrected reductions of approximately 60%. Again, these levels of LDL-C reduction across all studies delivered on the promise of trying to come up with a PCSK9 inhibitor that could be antibody-like in its efficacy. So consistency in the effect size was also observed for changes in ApoB, non-HDL, OPLA as atherogenic predictors of cardiovascular risk with reductions of minus 50%, 53% and then 28%, respectively, across all studies.
These results support our original ambition to bring the best oral lipid-lowering agent with antibody-like efficacy to a broad population globally. Enlicitide offers profound LDL reduction translating into a robust LDL-C goal attainment with broad reductions in atherogenic particles. It was easy to use and came up with placebo-like safety profile. Together with recent outcome results presented here at AHA, yesterday's data make us very excited for the future readout of our CV outcome study to confirm enlicitide's role in reducing the risk for stroke, MI and cardiovascular death.
The presentations here at AHA this weekend are just the start. Data from the CORALreef lipids and studies will support regulatory filings in early 2026. We've already announced the successful readout of the -- study and are planning to present detailed results in early 2026, too. As a reminder, this study will compare enlicitide to other mechanisms used as add-on to statin therapy.
Beyond that, we've now fully enrolled the CORALreef outcome study, a study that includes both primary and secondary prevention patients with a primary completion date projected in late 2029. We also initiated a pediatric heterozygous FH study and have announced the upcoming start of a co-administration study with [indiscernible].
In conclusion, enlicitide is designed to address the global cardiovascular epidemic. The studies presented here at AHA established the foundation for an initial filing early in 2026. Together with the add-on study, we strongly believe that these data will position enlicitide as the first choice oral at on lipid-lowering therapy. The CORALreef outcome study is designed to provide a definitive measure of the potential of enlicitide-reduced stroke, MI and CV death in both high-risk primary and secondary prevention patients. The development of a statin fixed-dose combination would allow to further simplify and optimize management of LDL-C in most patients, a potent oral medication with the potential for further -- appropriately -- lowering.
We believe that enlicitide is uniquely positioned as a cornerstone of future combination therapies and that our pipeline offers multiple different options to try to solve the CV epidemic.
And with that, I'll hand it over to Jannie.
Thank you, Joerg, and good evening, everybody. There's an urgent need for additional new treatment options to address the global cardiovascular disease epidemic. Cardiovascular disease is the #1 cause of mortality worldwide. And each year, about 85% of CV disease related deaths are due to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Despite the widespread availability of statins, LDL cholesterol control is still falling short in routine practice. In the United States, nearly 70% of patients on lipid-lowering therapy are not at their LDL-C goal. The result is substantial economic cost to health care systems as well as to society. Globally, the vast majority of treated patients not at goal are on statin monotherapy, which speaks to the significant opportunity that remains for add-on therapies to improve outcomes for patients. We are very excited about the potential to bring enlicitide to patients given the substantial impact it can have in addressing the silent CV epidemic.
As we plan to bring enlicitide to market, there are some current market dynamics to highlight. There is a lack of patient awareness as CV disease typically progresses over time and leads to serious complications without noticeable symptoms. Many individuals may not be aware of their risk factors, which may put them at increased risk for serious disease. For those who are treated are not at goal, there is an opportunity for patient awareness and activation given the silent nature of the disease.
Additionally, there are varying LDL-C targets and performance metrics across geographies. Even where clear targets exist, they're not always consistently applied in practice. This is leading to suboptimal outcomes for patients. And in terms of current state, there has been limited use of PCSK9 therapies to date. Across the U.S., Europe and Japan, more than 80 million treated patients have LDL-C levels that are above guideline recommended goals. Our early launch focus will be on treated patients who are not at goal and need additional LDL-C lowering. This includes secondary prevention patients with ASCVD and high-risk primary prevention patients whose LDL-cholesterol remains above target on statins, including those with familial hypercholesterolemia as well as individuals who cannot tolerate higher intensity statins. We anticipate that initial prescribing will be more weighted towards patients with established ASCVD with the opportunity in those patients who are at risk of ASCVD contributing to additional growth beyond the early launch years.
Over the long term, there are significant opportunities to shift toward earlier routine combination therapy through future fixed-dose combinations. Additionally, there's a large eligible cohort of people who are not receiving any lipid-lowering therapy today. As Dean and Joerg said, enlicitide is designed to deliver antibody-like LDL-cholesterol lowering with the simplicity of a daily [indiscernible]. We believe it has the potential to be -- to be a very significant contributor in helping address the silent CV epidemic.
In the Phase III study, enlicitide achieved 59.7% LDL-C reduction. We believe this sets a new high bar for oral add-on lipid-lowering therapies. Importantly, a substantial majority of patients made rigorous LDL-C targets, including both absolute goals and percentage reductions from baseline. This level of goal attainment could become even more important should more rigorous guideline targets be established in the future. As a daily oral pill enlicitide offers ease of use with safety comparable to placebo and no adverse drug interactions. These features make it simple for patients to use and support broad real-world uptake.
As we have previously communicated, our intent is to enable broad access for enlicitide. We are committed to working with payers to reduce barriers and to support patients that need additional therapy beyond statins. And oral formulation also opens up enlicitide to a much broader target prescriber base than traditional specialists such as cardiologists to also include primary care professionals. This combination of efficacy, safety and ease of use as well as broad access and a wider prescriber base position enlicitide to be a very important treatment option and to help address the CV epidemic.
Earlier this year, we communicated the components of our expansive late-stage pipeline that comprise a potential nonrisk-adjusted revenue opportunity of over $50 billion by the mid-2030s. This included approximately $50 billion from our cardiometabolic and respiratory portfolio. Our confidence in the cardiometabolic and respiratory opportunity is largely underpinned by enlicitide and WINREVAIR, each of which, we believe, have multibillion dollar commercial potential. Additionally, we have recently added an important new growth driver in Odivir, which we also believe is a multibillion-dollar revenue opportunity. We, furthermore, have many promising early phase programs, which represent incremental commercial opportunities. Overall, we are confident in our ability to leverage our commercial engine and global footprint to advance our cardiometabolic and respiratory portfolio to positively impact patients around the globe.
With that, I turn it over to Peter.
Okay. Ivy, we're now ready for questions. If you could please repeat the instructions to those on the line.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Chris Schott from JPMorgan.
2. Question Answer
This is Taylor on for Chris. I was just wondering if you could provide a little more color about how your thinking about enlicitide food effect and how this would be reflected on the product label. And then what's the latest on how you're thinking about potential fasting requirements from this type.
So why don't I ask you to do a little bit of response to that, and then Jannie can speak about some of the other, more commercial implications and then I'll maybe make a comment or 2.
Good. Yes, I can get started. So enlicitide is recommended to be taken first thing in the morning. and then to wait for 30 minutes before taking food. After that in our study, an exceptionally high adherence rate to these recommendations with a compliance of over 97% suggests that participants really had no problems with this approach and supports the ease of use for enlicitide. And as a physician, I think this is not surprising given that commonly used medicines are taken first thing in the morning, and the practice actually for many patients is to take some medicines, [indiscernible], get ready for their day and then go on with their lives. And enlicitide would fit very well in that routine. At the end of the day, I think for patients, it's most important in how effective a treatment will be and if it is able to get them to their treatment goals.
Yes. Thank you, Joerg. I fully agree. I think from our perspective, we strongly believe that this will not be a barrier to use. And in fact, it could be a positive. If you think about a patient establishing a very simple routine of taking enlicitide first thing in the morning when you wake up, and before you know it 30 minutes have passed, and you get on with your day, with the most potent lipid-lowering oral agent that is available. So we really think this could actually be a very positive aspect in terms of driving compliance. And that's what we saw in the trial. We saw a 97% compliance rate. So I think that's a great confirmation this truly is not a barrier for us.
I don't have much more to say, except that's how I take my medicine.
So Ivy, we'll take a few here in the room. Daina? And if you could please state your name and firm, that would be really helpful.
Daina Graybosch from Leerink Partners. Congrats on the data. I'm actually going to ask a different one but also on adherence. And that is you did have 3% that were adherent. Did you see is that enough to see whether that actually had a negative impact on the outcome, just in case patients aren't as adherent in the real world? Is that a risk or not?
Joerg, did you want to take that in terms of the clinical trial?
I think the clinical trial adherence that we observed is exceptional, even when you compare that to drugs that are not given with specific fasting instructions. Of course, the regulatory filing will be supported by much more detail pharmacokinetic fasting studies. And at the end of the day, this is something that was easy to take for patients. They didn't struggle with it. They stayed on drug. You see that the patient -- and the durability of effect over time, I think, supports that.
Great. Next question, Nick?
Nick Jennings for Goldman Sachs. So the 52-week LDL-C lowering seemed a little bit lower than the 24-week period. What do you think is driving that difference? And we did not see that in the AGFH study, I believe, so difference between those 2 studies.
So we start just with the observation. There was a profound treatment effect see it early, it is durable over time. I think a small diminution of treatment effect is something that actually consistently observed in almost every lipid-lowering study. It's actually something that you can see when you look at the product circular for some of the injectables. And it's something that you see in the Phase II and Phase III results, essentially for everything that is in development or has been recently published. And then you're right, sometimes it doesn't happen in our heterozygous FH study. As you point out, 24-week LDL reduction of 59.4% compared to 61.5% at week 52. So in easier case, I think in the end, what we take from this results to durability of the LDL effect over time.
Great. Any others in the room? Malcolm?
Malcolm Hoffman here for BMO. Looks like we may get Phase II data for MK 7262 potentially any day now. Thinking about that trial and what we have seen with enlicitide so far, how do you think about these 2 agents and their potential to be combined further? What more may you need to see to pursue this in a clinical trial? And are there any specific considerations that you would need to think about in such a combo given the food effect we already discussed.
So I'll just answer it more broadly. We think these results with enlicitide and also other data that was presented about how important being monoclonal antibody like because there was data about monoclonal antibodies really suggest a tipping point of being able to address LDL. And I think that's a profound impact for the field. And I think the field felt that this weekend. I also think that's going to be a tipping point because it's going to allow people to begin to ask themselves what other risk factors could be important. And I'm not going to go through what precisely every combination. But the 3 buckets after LDL that you might consider is, clearly, inflammation has to be looked at as something that could be important in terms of cardiovascular epidemic and rigs. Clearly, LP(a) will be important in relationship to that. In fact, those patients who have high LP(a) really the #1 thing you have to do with the cardiologist is you need to drop their LDL cholesterol as close to 0 as possible. And I think the last one is, clearly, there is important for cardiovascular outcomes is to understand what's the relationship of obesity in relationship to that. So we look at as LDL, inflammation, LP(a) and obesity. And we have agents in all 4 categories. And as with those advance, we will make decisions as to when to advance them, how to advance them and whether they should be advanced in monotherapy or in fixed-dose combinations.
Great. Just a reminder, for those participating virtually, if you wish to ask a question, please use the dial-in number that is provided on the event page of our website. Ivy, if we could take a few more from the phone line, that would be great.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Vamil Divan from Guggenheim.
I just had a question, you touched on this in the prepared remarks about the primary prevention data we saw from Amgen at the conference. So I'm just curious your thoughts on what we saw there in terms of the impact, the path ahead and how does that impact your views on what -- and we show your control and also just overall the market potential now if you -- has it gone up or change in any way based on what we're seeing in the outcome?
So I'll turn it over to Joerg, but I do think the data presented, as you discussed, emphasizes how important PCSK9 as a pathway and how important the specific mechanism by which the antibodies work, which is to interrupt PCSK9 and LDL receptor interactions can really have a profound impact. And with that, I'll turn it to Joerg.
Yes. So Vesalius is a great study. It provided a 25% reduction in MACE. And I think it's fair to believe that the results will reset the urgency in the field to initiate LDL therapy perhaps a little bit earlier in patients and to think about more ambitious LDL goals. The results get us more excited, even more excited about the future readout of our CORALreef study based on a we have established that we have LDL lowering effects that would predict an outcome in the same range. And we also, of course, acknowledge that certain design features in the VIVELIA study and in the CORALreef outcome study are pretty similar that makes us pretty excited about these results.
Great. Next question, please.
Next, we'll go to Courtney Breen from Bernstein.
I wanted to just asked a little bit about the dimensions that you're considering when it comes to commercialization of the product. I think there's been a few questions on adherence so far. But I also wanted to ask in the context of kind of some of the pricing conversations and your language previously around democratizing access to these products. We now have Amgen offering Repatha at $239 in the patient channel. We've now also kind of just had a big GLP-1 deal land in the U.S. with the Trump administration. And so can you talk a little bit about the positioning of this product in the context of others that might be launching such as the oral GLP-1 that would be considered for many of the same patients around the same time.
That's a great question, and I'll hand it to Jannie to take a stab at that.
Yes. Thank you for the question, Courtney. First of all, from a pricing perspective, we will price to get broad access in the United. States and in terms of democratizing treatment, this really is a global cardiovascular epidemic. And I think we have a unique opportunity to impact this disease on a global basis with a small molecule that, as Joerg said, it's easy to ship, and we can hopefully get the price points also in ex U.S. markets where we can open up access. So that's part of the democratization.
But certainly, in the United States, we have an objective to make sure that we remove barriers as much as we can in order for patients with a need for further intensification and on to statin to have access to enlicitide. That really is the objective.
In terms of using technology, whether it's digital means to continue to remind patients for compliance, those are all great tools that we can increasingly deploy from a tactical perspective and make sure that patients get the full advantage and benefit of this great potent lipid-lowering treatment.
Great. Next question, please,.
Next, we'll go to the line of Steve Scala from TD Cowen.
I'm curious, how did Merck define adherence or compliance in the [ liptide ] trials? And is that a standard validated definition used in similar trials.
And I don't know if we're limited to one question, but if we aren't limited, then I would like to ask, are there interim looks at efficacy in the outcomes trial? And could you speak to the split between primary and secondary patients?
Steve, I'll give you the expert your -- to go through the details of the clinical plans.
So the assessment of adherence in our clinical study was based on patient questionnaires, patients were asked 2 different questions, were asked a question where you're able to take the drug reliably, and they were asked to, were you're able to adhere. And then there were prespecified criteria that were laid out in the protocol. We'll publish, of course, the results in the protocol that will be in the New England Journal that will detail that further.
Is that a standardized approach? No, this was a more rigorous approach to really address the question, are patients able to use this drug easily, and then we are really pleased with the outcomes and the high adherence rate. We wanted to understand how easy is it to use.
With respect to the outcome study, yes, the protocol prespecifies an interim analysis after 3/4 of the events are collected. The study is now fully enrolled. We designed to study in a way that it includes both primary and secondary prevention patients, 3/4 of the patients in the study, the study has 14,707 patients enrolled. I think that's a number. 3/4 of those patients are primary prevention patients, 1/4 are secondary prevention -- sorry, other way around. 3/4 are secondary prevention patients and 1/4 are high-risk primary prevention patients.
Great. Thank you, Steve. And to be clear, multiple questions are permitted today because we have plenty of time. Next question, please.
[Operator Instructions] And next, we'll go to Geoff Meacham from Citi.
This is Mary Kay on for Geoff. I would like to ask a quick one on WINREVAIR here. How might this new data further strengthen your confidence in the clinical profile and potentially impact is used in clinical practice beyond what we're seeing now maybe in terms of different care centers or patient background, which -- from the strong data?
Yes. So why don't I give Joerg a brief chance to talk about the excitement of that pooled analysis that was discussed, and then I'll have Jannie talk about how easy that might impact the uptake.
So when you look at our clinical development program, we had a number of readouts, very positive readouts in the New England Journal. You see us starting from a prevalent population in STELLA, expanding to really advanced patients to understand is there a mortality benefit that was [indiscernible] expanding into patients that were just recently diagnosed also advanced patients to understand how early should you use the drug. So that's the data set that we have right now.
I think Dean, in the prepared remarks, talked about the new LDL -- the new WINREVAIR label that we've gotten. This is going to be the first indication that includes a reduction of death and the need for lung transplantation in the indication statement. And I think that speaks to the strength and the uniqueness of WINREVAIR achieving something that you don't see with other PH drugs at this point of time.
Yes. And I'll just add, whenever you strengthen the label like that, it really is useful. And it also continues to expand the type of patients being treated on starting to answer questions that maybe previously we didn't answer in full, for instance, in connective tissue disease. So that really does help to continue to expand the treated population.
In the U.S., we obviously have the HYPERION data set pretty much in the STELLA label, but that is an expansion for the label outside of the U.S. as well.
And then to your point, the hard endpoints really, I think, continues to build into the efficacy profile of this product but further increases the confidence in the use of WINREVAIR. And we do see positions increasingly starting to use it in patients not on injectable prostacyclins in that deal, deal treated population is now sitting at about 25%, and we expect that to continue to increase over time.
I'll just make one comment. As we're talking about the LDL cholesterol and the silent cardiovascular epidemic, there is a general standardized way to think about guidelines, whether it's in Europe or whether it's in the U.S. I don't believe the same thing has been done for PAH but I do believe this data will force the field to reconsider and to come up with very hard guidelines similar to what you see with LDL. So I think this is really important data more broadly to the field, it will trigger the need to come up with very clear guidelines when you have a 56% reduction in lung transplantation and death and 51% reduction in mortality. And I believe the field understands it, and they will work with speed to get that done.
Any other questions here in the room? Daina.
I have another one on the study. You had this correction in the CORALreef lipid study. This is Daina from d Leerink Partners. It's sort of awkward to have to state the effect twice. Is there anything beyond the awkwardness from that, that's a regulatory challenge? Or does it suggest anything beyond those 5 patients? Maybe you can help us better understand what happened.
So in principle, when you try to understand how effective is the drug, of course, you look at your LDL lowering across your entire program. That's actually how labels are written for lipid-lowering therapies. You don't see one LDL reduction. You see the LDL reduction across studies. And so what I think we were trying to describe is we have this consistency in LDL reduction across studies. And we have this consistency between LDL reduction and ApoB reduction and non-HDL reduction those other parameters are also somehow linked with each other, specifically to the lipid study.
So we had data handling rules in the ASCP that resulted in 5 out of almost 3,000 patients having these baseline values that were biologically impossible. And following the advice of our statistic -- Scientific Advisory Board, we performed a post [indiscernible] analysis. The idea really was we want to understand what's the true effect size. What's the best estimate of the 2 effects size. And so in the reanalysis, we just corrected these extreme outliers. And we are presenting both at the New England Journal paper. In the end, we'll describe in more detail precisely what was done, will be, I think, a very transparent decision. I think the presenter already did a very nice job in links that out in the field that I think didn't cause any questions in the scientific community.
Great. Any other questions in the room? Ivy, any other questions online?
We do have 2 more in queue. Steve Scala from TD Cowen.
Can you provide some perspective on the enlicitide launch curve? Lipitor sold billions by the third year. Should we expect at least that for the Merck drug?
And secondly, is Merck working on decreasing the fasting duration, whether it be through additional studies of the existing formulation or perhaps a different formulation?
I'll let Jannie take a stab at the commercial, and I can answer the other one.
Yes. So yes, Steve, thanks for the question. Just given the strength of the data, we do believe that there will be meaningful adoption from the beginning. Having said that, we are cognizant that there's a few factors that could affect the trajectory upfront, which would be just how quickly can we increase the awareness? How quickly can we create a sense of urgency to more aggressively treat what is the rate of insurance coverage that we can bring about? And then also just how quickly will the guidelines move, right, in relation to setting some real goals. And obviously, some of those will help the others. So in terms of the trajectory, those are the things that we're taking into account in terms of how we think about the trajectory in the first few years.
In terms of where we think we're going to go in terms of peak, we have said that we believe this is a multibillion-dollar opportunity. We feel very confident about that. I think the data this week further builds into that confidence, and I think that's where we have good alignment on the long-term outlook with analysts in terms of the full potential of enlicitide.
Yes. In terms of what you asked in relationship to the need to take this or the recommendation, I shouldn't say the need, the recommendation to take this in the morning along the lines that Joerg suggested, we're very comfortable with that. Clearly, other sort of descriptive studies might create a better understanding of what the leeway is in relationship to that. I would also emphasize that your last question, I think, related to is are we thinking of reformulating or something like that? The answer is no. With 97% compliance rate and the results that we have consistently, I think that we're extremely comfortable that this is the most potent oral lipid-lowering cholesterol medicine that there is. And so we would not want to do something that disturbs that.
Great. Thank you, Steve. Next question, please.
[Operator Instructions] And Courtney Breen from Bernstein.
One more question from our side. And just another question on adherence from a slightly different angle. Can you -- you've obviously shared with us the adherence for enlicitide in the study. Can you give us any details around the adherence to the statins and other background therapies that patients were being prescribed? How adherent were they to those medications? That'll be useful to kind of be able to contextualize that, recognizing we've got some more data on how they are taken in the real world and how representative this patient population is for what we're seeing in the real world today.
Yes. No, thanks for that question. And I think the implication or the implied need to have these studies in patients where the background therapy is a optimized and be stable before they get randomized. We fully buy into this. We had in the 52-week studies, very stable background therapies. You also see that when you look at the stability of the LDL levels in the placebo group. I think that is an essential feature of a study that really then is able to test the true effect size of a new intervention placebo-controlled, and we feel very comfortable with the cleanness of our study results in that respect.
Great. Ivy, any further questions online?
I am showing no other questions in queue.
Okay. Anything further here in the room? Great. Thank you all very much. Dean, any closing comments?
Yes. I would just emphasize that enlicitide, as we have discussed over the years, and many of you have had discussions with me in many different forms, was designed to deliver PCSK9 antibody like efficacy in an easy-to-use pill with a compliance rate of greater than 97% that has the ability, the potential to be distributed at a global scale. I also think at this meeting, the importance of being antibody-like in design and efficacy really came to the forefront.
It was highlighted by other data that was presented in relationship to the monoclonal antibodies, and I will sort of emphasize in that study, they were able to achieve, in general, a 55% reduction in LDL. They were able to drop people's LDL to around 45, not 70, not 90, not 55, but 45. They had important effects in both those patient populations appropriate patient populations in primary and in secondary prevention, and they led to CVOTs or cardiovascular outcomes or reductions of 20-plus percent.
And so this is an important opportunity for Merck, but we also understand that the ability to impact the leading cause of death globally, heart attack and stroke, is profound. And we are excited by the data that we have shown and we are excited by the movement of the field to adopt even more aggressive LDL-cholesterol-lowering guidelines so that we can address the silent and deadly cardiovascular epidemic.
Great. Thank you all very much for your attention here tonight and appreciate your interest in Merck. Have a good night Thanks.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Merck & Co. — Shareholder/Analyst Call - Merck & Co., Inc.
Merck & Co. — Shareholder/Analyst Call - Merck & Co., Inc.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Merck präsentierte auf dem AHA‑Investor Event enlicitide, eine orale PCSK9‑Hemmer‑Therapie mit antibody‑ähnlicher Wirksamkeit: LDL‑Cholesterin (LDL‑C)‑Reduktionen nahe 60% und >97% Studiencompliance. Filing geplant für Anfang 2026; Outcome‑Studie voll eingeschrieben, Primärabschluss projektiert Ende 2029.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Enlicitide: Drei positive pivotalen CORALreef‑Studien (Lipids, HeFH, Add‑on) untermauern antibody‑ähnliche Effektstärke; Lipids accepted by NEJM, HeFH in JAMA.
- Entwicklung & Zeitplan: Filing‑Start Anfang 2026; Outcome‑Studie vollständig rekrutiert (≈14.707 Teilnehmer), geplante Interim‑analyse nach 75% der Ereignisse.
- Portfolio: WINREVAIR: gepoolte Daten mit deutlicher Reduktion von Morbidität/Mortalität; Odivir: FDA‑Zulassung Juni 2024, Phase‑II Bronchiektasen läuft (Primärabschluss Sep 2026).
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Neues: CORALreef‑Lipids: Placebo‑korrigierte LDL‑Reduktion 55.8% (primär) bzw. 59.7% nach Post‑hoc‑Bereinigung; HeFH 59.4%. Strenge Zielerreichung (~70% bei ≥50% Reduktion und LDL <70/55 mg/dl). NEJM/JAMA‑Publikationen unterstützen regulatorische Pläne.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Adhärenz/Food‑Effekt: Empfehlung: morgens nüchtern, 30 Minuten warten; Studie zeigte >97% Compliance; Management sieht das nicht als Marktbremse.
- Daten‑Konsistenz: Leichter Rückgang von Woche 24 auf 52 ist klein und in Lipid‑Studien üblich; Korrektur wegen 5 biologisch unrealistischer Baseline‑Werte erklärt und transparent durchgeführt.
- Kommerz/Preis: Management strebt breite Zugänglichkeit an; plant Preis/Erstattungsstrategien zur Demokratisierung; langfristiges Potential wird als multibillionenschwer eingeschätzt.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bewertung: Enlicitide könnte PCSK9‑Therapien disruptiv erweitern: orale Anwendung, antibody‑ähnliche LDL‑Senkung und skalierbare Distribution. Kurzfristig wichtig sind regulatorische Entscheidungen, Erstattungsvereinbarungen und der finale CV‑Outcome‑Nachweis (Primärabschluss Ende 2029). Für Aktionäre: hohes Upside bei klaren Risiken in Marktzugang und Outcome‑Bestätigung.
Merck & Co. — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Welcome to the Merck & Company, Inc. Rahway, New Jersey, USA Third Quarter Sales and Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.
I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Peter Dannenbaum, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Thank you, Julie, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call for Merck & Company Inc., Rahway, New Jersey, USA. Speaking on today's call will be Rob Davis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Caroline Litchfield, Chief Financial Officer; and Dr. Dean Li, President of Research Labs.
Before we get started, I'd like to point out that we have items in our GAAP results such as acquisition-related charges, restructuring costs and certain other items that we have excluded from our non-GAAP results. There is a reconciliation in our press release.
I will also remind you that some of the statements that we make today may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are made based on the current beliefs of our company's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. If our underlying assumptions prove inaccurate or uncertainties materialize, actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. Our SEC filings, including Item 1A in the 2024 10-K identify certain risk factors and cautionary statements that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from those projected in any of our forward-looking statements made this morning. Merck & Company Incorporated, Rahway, New Jersey, USA, undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.
During today's call, slide presentation will accompany our speakers' prepared remarks. These slides, along with the earnings release, today's prepared remarks and our SEC filings are all posted to the Investor Relations section of our company's website. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Rob.
Thank you, Peter. Good morning, and thank you for joining today's call. We continue to make meaningful progress in using the power of leading edge science to save and improve lives around the world. We're delivering value to patients and customers today through our innovative portfolio of medicines and vaccines, and we're securing our future by making important investments in our pipeline, the strongest and deepest in recent memory.
We now have approximately 80 Phase III trials underway across a diverse array of therapeutic areas with important readouts coming over the next year in cardiopulmonary, immunology, HIV, ophthalmology and, of course, oncology. We're investing behind more than 20 compelling launch opportunities, some already underway. These programs will transform our commercial portfolio and fuel future growth with over $50 billion of revenue opportunity by the mid-2030s. And we remain committed to the pursuit of disciplined science and value-driven business development to further augment our expansive pipeline.
In the third quarter, we continued to successfully execute on our strategy with important pipeline advancements, significant approvals and successful new product launches. Additionally, in October, we completed the strategic acquisition of Verona Pharma. This provides us yet another important growth driver with multibillion-dollar commercial potential into the next decade. We're making strong progress across the business, and I remain confident in our ability to further broaden our impact to patients and deliver long-term growth and value for shareholders.
With respect to U.S. health care policy, as I've said before, we share the administration's goal of decreasing patient out-of-pocket costs for our products in the U.S., while at the same time, realizing greater prices for our medicines and vaccines in countries that have not been paying fair value for the innovation we provide. We're actively engaged with the administration in an effort to find a path forward that achieves these objectives. We also want to preserve our ability to invest in the breakthrough innovations we intend to bring to patients in the future while ensuring the sustainability of our business long term, and we're optimistic about our ability to do so.
We continue to make significant investments in manufacturing in the United States. Last week, we announced a groundbreaking event at our Elkton, Virginia site as part of a broader plan that will result in the investment of more than $70 billion in expanded domestic manufacturing and R&D. These investments will support our plans to drive long-term growth and will strengthen the U.S. as a global leader in biopharmaceutical innovation.
Turning to our third quarter results. We're pleased to deliver solid performance with continued strength across oncology and animal health as well as increasing contributions from our new product launches, WINREVAIR, CAPVAXIVE, and most recently, ENFLONSIA. In research, several notable updates highlight our strong progress. In cardiovascular, we announced positive top line results from the CORALreef Lipids trial, the third and largest Phase III study evaluating enlicitide, our investigational oral PCSK9 inhibitor in the treatment of hyperlipidemia. We look forward to sharing these results at the American Heart Association Meeting next week and submitting these data to regulatory authorities.
In pulmonary arterial hypertension, full results from the HYPERION study in recently diagnosed patients reinforce our confidence in the practice-changing potential of WINREVAIR. Additionally, we secured FDA approval for our supplemental BLA for WINREVAIR based on the strong results of the ZENITH trial.
In oncology, we're pleased that the FDA approved subcutaneous pembrolizumab or KEYTRUDA QLEX, and that the CHMP granted a positive opinion. KEYTRUDA QLEX will provide patients and providers an important new option that can be injected in as little as 1 minute. We're working relentlessly to continue to develop and deliver new treatment options for patients with cancer. At ESMO, we presented data across a broad range of oncology medicines and candidates, including important findings from breakthrough therapy designated ADCs.
Finally, we continue to expand our efforts in immunology, including for another of our important late-stage candidates, tulisokibart, where we initiated Phase IIb trials in 3 immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. These add to the Phase II study already underway in SSc-ILD and the ongoing Phase IIIs in ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease.
We're pleased to welcome our new colleagues from Verona Pharma and look forward to adding our commercial capabilities and scale to accelerate the launch of OHTUVAYRE, a novel first-in-class maintenance treatment for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Strategic business development remains a top priority. We're assessing potential targets with urgency given our desire to make additional compelling investments when both science and value align.
In summary, we remain highly focused on building on the strong clinical and commercial progress we made in the quarter. The investments we're making to advance and expand our pipeline are increasingly translating into positive clinical results and successful new product launches. This is giving us improved line of sight towards the transformation of our portfolio to one with a far more diversified set of growth drivers. With each milestone we achieved, including compelling strategic business development, my conviction that we're well positioned to drive the next chapter of success for our company increases.
I want to recognize the commitment and effort of our teams across the world. Together, I'm confident we'll achieve long-term growth and create sustainable value for both patients and shareholders.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Caroline.
Thank you, Rob. Good morning. As Rob noted, we delivered solid performance in the quarter, with growth driven by continued strength in oncology and animal health as well as increasing contributions from our many new product launches. These results reinforce the conviction we have in our science-led strategy and in our outlook for continued growth. We remain confident in our ability to deliver strong results in the near term and are committed to making disciplined investments in compelling science to drive long-term value for patients, customers and shareholders.
Now turning to our third quarter results. Total company revenues were $17.3 billion, an increase of 4% or 3% excluding the impact of foreign exchange. The following revenue comments will be on an ex-exchange basis.
In oncology, sales of KEYTRUDA increased 8% to $8.1 billion, with global growth driven by strong demand from metastatic indications and robust uptake in earlier-stage cancers. Usage in tumors that primarily affects women, including cervical, breast, and endometrial cancers was a key contributor to growth. In addition, we saw increased use of KEYTRUDA in combination with Padcev in first-line locally advanced or metastatic urothelial cancer.
In the U.S., growth benefited by approximately $100 million from an extra Tuesday of shipments, partially offset by other channel movements. We are also excited by the recent FDA approval and launch of KEYTRUDA QLEX, which occurred at the end of the quarter.
Our broader oncology portfolio achieved another quarter of strong growth, driven by WELIREG with sales increasing 41% to $196 million, predominantly driven by increased use in certain patients with previously treated advanced renal cell carcinoma in the U.S. as well as continued uptake from ongoing launches in certain international markets.
In vaccines, GARDASIL sales were $1.7 billion, a decrease of 25%. Excluding China, sales declined 3%, primarily due to lower sales in Japan, reflecting the expiration of reimbursement for the catch-up cohort, partially offset by sales growth of 13% in the U.S. which was attributable to price and CDC purchasing patterns.
In pneumococcal, CAPVAXIVE sales were $244 million, driven by demand from both retail pharmacies and nonretail customers as well as the expected seasonal inventory build. We look forward to helping protect more results from invasive pneumococcal disease and to driving continued growth of this important product.
VAXNEUVANCE sales decreased 7% due to a competitive preferential recommendation in Japan, which more than offset growth in certain international markets. In the U.S., sales were roughly flat as competitive pressures were largely offset by favorable CDC stockpile activity.
In RSV, ENFLONSIA sales of $79 million reflects initial stocking ahead of expected demand. We look forward to helping protect infants born during or entering their first RSV season.
In cardiovascular, WINREVAIR continued its strong momentum with global sales of $360 million. In the U.S., approximately 1,500 new patients received the prescription and over 24,000 total prescriptions were dispensed in the quarter, a testament to the continued strong demand for this important treatment option. There was also an approximate $40 million negative impact from the timing of distributor purchases, which fully reversed in October. Compelling additional data from ongoing studies, which Dean will speak to in a moment, further support our outlook for steady new patient starts. Over time, we expect an increasing proportion of use in patients whose background therapies do not include a prostacyclin.
Outside the U.S., we continue to make progress with securing approvals and reimbursement, including the recent launch in Japan, which is off to a good start. Overall, we look forward to positively impacting the lives of more patients with PAH.
Our animal health business again delivered strong growth, with sales increasing 7%. Livestock sales grew 14%, driven by higher demand across all species as well as a benefit from timing of sales. Companion animal sales declined 3% due to a reduction in vet visits and competition in parasiticides, partially offset by price, improved supply and new product launches.
I will now walk you through the remainder of our P&L, and my comments will be on a non-GAAP basis. Gross margin was 81.9%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points driven by favorable product mix. Operating expenses decreased to $6.6 billion. There were $300 million in business development charges in the quarter compared with $2.2 billion in charges a year ago. Excluding these charges, operating expenses were flat, reflecting an increase in investments in support of our robust early and late phase pipeline as well as key growth drivers, offset by the timing of expenses. Other expense was $106 million. Our tax rate of 13.4% benefited from certain discrete items. Taken together, earnings per share were $2.58.
Now turning to our 2025 non-GAAP guidance, which now includes the acquisition of Verona Pharma as well as the restructured agreement for Koselugo. We expect full year revenue to be between $64.5 billion and $65 billion. This range represents growth of 1% to 2%, excluding a negative impact from foreign exchange of approximately 0.5% using mid-October rates.
Our gross margin assumption remains approximately 82%, including an updated estimate of less than $100 million in costs related to the impact of tariffs. Operating expenses are now assumed to be between $25.9 million and $26.4 billion. This guidance does not assume additional significant potential business development transactions. Other expense is now expected to be between $400 million and $500 million. We now assume a full year tax rate between 14% and 15%.
We assume approximately 2.51 billion shares outstanding. Taken together, our EPS guidance is $8.93 to $8.98. Relative to 2024, this range includes a negative impact from foreign exchange of approximately $0.15 using mid-October rates. Recall, our prior guidance midpoint was $8.92. Our current guidance midpoint of $8.96 reflects a benefit from the restructured agreement for Koselugo of $0.09, partially offset by an estimated negative impact related to the acquisition of Verona of $0.04.
As you consider your models, there are a few items to keep in mind. For KEYTRUDA, as previously communicated, year-over-year growth in the U.S. in the fourth quarter is expected to be negatively impacted by approximately $200 million due to the timing of wholesaler purchases. For ENFLONSIA, we are pleased with the initial purchases in the U.S. Keep in mind that most of this was stocking ahead of expected usage in this RSV season.
Lastly, as Rob noted, we have one of the most robust pipelines in our recent history. Importantly, all of our major programs are advancing, and we are excited about the additional opportunities in front of us. As we have said before, we intend to fully invest behind these opportunities. And as we look to 2026, we expect an acceleration in underlying operating expense growth driven by investments in both R&D and SG&A to fuel our pipeline and new launches, including more than $0.5 billion of investment to maximize the potential of OHTUVAYRE. This will enable us to continue to bring forward innovative medicines and vaccines to make a difference in the lives of patients and drive growth for our company.
Now turning to capital allocation, where our strategy remains unchanged. We will prioritize investments in our business to drive near- and long-term growth. We will continue to invest in our key growth drivers and expansive pipeline of novel candidates, each of which has significant potential to address important unmet medical needs. We remain committed to our dividend with the goal of increasing it over time. Business development remains a high priority, and we are well positioned to pursue additional science-driven value-enhancing transactions. We are maintaining our increased pace of share repurchases and expect approximately $5 billion for the full year.
To conclude, as we finish the year, we are confident in the outlook of our business driven by global demand for our innovative in-line portfolio, the exciting progress we are seeing with our many product launches and our exceptional pipeline. With continued investment in innovation and our ongoing focus on execution, we remain well positioned to deliver value to patients, customers and shareholders now and well into the future.
With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to Dean.
Thank you, Caroline. Good morning, everyone. The third quarter was marked by several notable clinical and regulatory milestones. I will start with updates in oncology, followed by vaccines and infectious disease, immunology, ophthalmology, and then cover advancements in our cardiovascular and pulmonary programs. I will close by highlighting key upcoming events through the first half of 2026.
Progress continues across our diverse oncology portfolio. Last month, we received FDA approval for KEYTRUDA QLEX injection for subcutaneous administration of pembrolizumab. KEYTRUDA QLEX offers a substantially quicker administration time than intravenous infusion of KEYTRUDA, and can be administered subcutaneously by a health care provider in as little as 1 minute when given every 3 weeks. It has the potential to provide flexibility in the site of care while helping to increase efficiency in and access to health care systems. We also see opportunity for use in certain patients with earlier-stage disease. To date, KEYTRUDA-based regimens have received FDA approval for 10 indications in the earlier setting.
Last month, the European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use granted a positive opinion for subcutaneous administration of KEYTRUDA. The European Commission has approved KEYTRUDA as part of a perioperative regimen for the treatment of certain adult patients with resectable locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma based on the Phase III KEYNOTE-689 trial.
We continue to build upon the extensive body of evidence for KEYTRUDA in multiple indications spanning both earlier and metastatic stages of disease. At the European Society for Medical Oncology Congress, data from the KEYTRUDA program were showcased in 2 Presidential Symposium sessions. These include progression-free and overall survival results from KEYNOTE-B96 in certain patients with platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer. The FDA has accepted ou'r sBLA for priority review and set a PDUFA date of February 20.
Also at ESMO, event-free and overall survival data from KEYNOTE-905 in patients with muscle invasive bladder cancer who are ineligible for cisplatin-based chemotherapy conducted in collaboration with Astellas and Pfizer, were presented. The FDA has also accepted this sBLA for priority review with a PDUFA date of April 7.
The success of KEYTRUDA has enabled us to build a diversified oncology pipeline. At ESMO, data from our growing portfolio of antibody drug conjugate candidates were also presented, including results for sac-TMT, our TROP2 targeting ADC from the Phase III OptiTROP-Lung04 study in patients with EGFR mutated non-small cell lung cancer conducted by our collaborator, Kelun.
Findings from Kelun's Phase III OptiTROP-Breast02 study, evaluating sac-TMT in locally advanced or metastatic HR-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer, as well as results from the Phase II/III REJOICE-Ovarian01 study evaluating R-DXd, our CDH6 targeting ADC in certain patients with platinum-resistant ovarian, primary peritoneal or fallopian tube cancer in collaboration with Daiichi Sankyo.
Also, earlier this week, we were pleased to announce positive results for WELIREG, our first-in-class oral HIF-2 alpha inhibitor across adjuvant and advanced renal cell carcinoma based on 2 Phase III trials: LITESPARK-022 in combination with KEYTRUDA, and LITESPARK-011 in combination with Lenvima in collaboration with Eisai.
Next, to vaccines and infectious disease. Starting with CAPVAXIVE, our 21 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. Following the approval in the U.S. and EU in August, the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare granted approval for CAPVAXIVE for the prevention of pneumococcal infections in the elderly and adults at high risk. We are also evaluating the potential of CAPVAXIVE in additional patient types. At the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases Conference on vaccines, results of the Phase III STRIDE-13 trial, examining the safety, tolerability and immunogenicity in children and adolescents aged 2 to 17 years who are increased risk of pneumococcal disease were presented. The FDA has accepted for review the sBLA and set a PDUFA date of June 18.
Regarding RSV, following approval in June, ENFLONSIA, our long-acting monoclonal antibody for the prevention of RSV disease in infants entering or during their first RSV season is now available. Earlier this month, we received a positive CHMP opinion from the European Medicines Agency.
Turning to HIV. We have development program spanning both treatment and prep settings anchored by our investigational NRTTIs islatravir and MK-8527. Earlier this month, new findings were presented at the European AIDS Conference, including 48-week Phase III data for doravirine and islatravir as a once-daily oral 2-drug regimen for the treatment of adults with virologically suppressed HIV-1 infection on antiretroviral therapy. And 96-week Phase II outcomes data for the investigation of once-weekly oral combination of islatravir with lenacapavir for adults with virologically suppressed HIV-1 infection, in collaboration with Gilead.
Moving to immunology, then ophthalmology. Tulisokibart is a humanized monoclonal antibody that targets tumor necrosis factor like cytokine 1A that is associated with inflammation and fibrosis. The Phase III ATLAS trial in ulcerative colitis recently completed enrollment, and the Phase III ARES trial in Crohn's disease remains on track. Building on these studies, we recently announced an expansion of the development program evaluating tulisokibart in dermatology and rheumatology indications with the initiation of 3 Phase IIb trials.
Since the acquisition of EyeBio last year, we have made significant progress advancing the Phase III clinical development program for MK-3000. Our novel candidate targeting the wind pathways for certain retinal diseases. Enrollment in the Phase III BRUNELLO study in patients with diabetic macular edema is complete and the study's primary completion date has been accelerated to September 2026.
SUPER TUSCAN, a Phase II study evaluating MK-3000 in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration as well as retinal vein occlusion is currently enrolling. In addition, earlier this month, at the Eyecelerator event hosted by the American Academy of Ophthalmology, we presented promising first time Phase I data from the RIOJA study evaluating MK-8748, our tetravalent bispecific antibody targeting Tie2 and VEGF, in patients with macular edema secondary to branch retinal vein occlusion and neovascular age-related macular degeneration. Based on these data, we plan to initiate late-stage trials in 2026.
Next, to our cardiovascular and pulmonary programs. WINREVAIR, the first and only activin signaling inhibitor for the treatment of adults with pulmonary arterial hypertension continues to generate evidence for benefit across a broad spectrum of patients with PAH.
Results from the Phase III HYPERION trial in recently diagnosed adults with PAH were presented at the European Respiratory Society Meeting. Adding WINREVAIR on top of background therapy showed a significant 76% reduction in risk of clinical worsening events compared to background therapy alone, despite early termination of the study due to loss of clinical equipoise. The findings were also published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
The FDA also recently approved an update to the WINREVAIR product label based on the results of the Phase III ZENITH trial. With the expanded indication, WINREVAIR is the first PAH therapy to have an indication that includes components of the clinical worsening event, hospitalization for PAH, lung transplantation and death.
With the closing of the Verona Pharma acquisition, we welcomed new colleagues to the team. Together, we are well positioned to build upon the success of OHTUVAYRE, a first-in-class dual phosphodiesterase 3 and 4 inhibitor for the maintenance treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We plan to advance the ongoing work in bronchiectasis and evaluate utility and additional indications, combination therapies and alternative formulations.
Despite advances in the screening and treatment, there continues to be a cardiovascular disease epidemic with ASCVD as the leading cause of death globally. In September, we announced that enlicitide, our investigational oral PCSK9 inhibitor, met all primary and key secondary end points in the CORALreef Lipids study, demonstrating statistically significant and clinically meaningful reduction in LDL cholesterol for the treatment of adults with hypercholesterolemia on a moderate or high-intensity statin or with documented statin intolerance. This is the third positive Phase III trial for enlicitide. We look forward to presenting the detailed results of the CORALreef Lipid study as well as the CORALreef study focused on familial heterozygous hypercholesterolemia at the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions meeting next week in New Orleans.
Please mark your calendars for an investor event at AHA on the evening of Sunday, November 9, where we will highlight these results and provide an overview of our cardiovascular and pulmonary program. We continue to see strong momentum across the pipeline. As Rob noted, there are approximately 80 Phase III trials underway across multiple therapeutic areas. We have initiated more than 15 Phase III trials this year and expect to have an increasing number in 2026.
As we look through the first half of 2026, we anticipate a regular cadence of milestones across therapeutic areas, including in oncology, the February 20 PDUFA date for certain patients with platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer based on KEYNOTE-B96. The April 7 PDUFA date for certain patients with earlier-stage MIBC based on KEYNOTE-905. In HIV, the April 28 PDUFA date for the combination of doravirine and islatravir, an oral once-daily treatment regimen, and data from the Phase III ISLEND-1 and 2 trials evaluating islatravir in combination with lenacapavir as a once-weekly oral treatment regimen. In immunology Phase II data for tulisokibart from the ATHENA study in SSc-ILD. And cardiopulmonary for WINREVAIR, data from the Phase II cadence study in pulmonary hypertension due to left heart disease. For enlicitide, presentation of detailed results from 3 Phase III trials from the CORALreef development program.
We continue to make progress with a diversified pipeline across multiple therapeutic areas, and I look forward to providing further updates on our programs in 2026. And now I turn the call back to Peter.
Thank you, Dean. Julie, we're now ready for Q&A. If I could request that analysts limit themselves to 1 question at least today. We need to end at the top of the hour. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Asad Haider with Goldman Sachs.
2. Question Answer
Maybe for Rob on BD. I was reassured to hear in the prepared remarks that you are assessing potential targets with urgency. And certainly, your Verona deal seemed well received, and it seems that the market wants to see more of those types of transactions from you. So I guess, any updated framing on what you're looking for would be helpful. And then related, there's also been an ongoing pickup in discussions about the potential reemergence of potentially transformative larger transactions in the industry, just given the external environment. So curious if you could share your updated views there.
Great. Asad, thanks for the question. As it relates to business development, as you point out, we were very excited about getting the closure of the deal with Verona. And as you know, we continue to see OHTUVAYRE as a multibillion-dollar opportunity. So excited about that. But as we've also said, we're not done, we do need to do more.
We continue to look across all therapeutic areas. I would say, obviously, the areas of focus for us continue to be aligned with what is our key therapeutic areas from the business perspective. Oncology continues to see a lot of opportunities, immunology, cardiometabolic and the like are where we're continuing to focus. As is always the case, science will drive us. And when we see a scientific opportunity where there's an unmet need that we think strategically aligns with our approach, if we see value, we'll move. So no change in our approach.
And as you think about deal size, we continue to be focused in that $1 billion to $15 billion range as the primary area. But as we've been clear to say in the past, we are willing to go larger than that, but always with the focus on science and always understanding that if we look and see an opportunity, we're going to do it based on that unmet need.
As you think forward to your broader question on the reemergence, the potential larger scale deals, our view of that has not changed. We do not think that a transformative acquisition, a synergy-driven deal is something that we need to do nor aligns with our future because as you know, we have 1 the most robust pipelines we've ever had, and we see large synergy-driven deals as disruptive to that activity. And so our focus will be on bringing in pipeline assets not on those types of deals. But as you think about that, as we said in the past, we're open to Phase I all the way through Phase III, and where we can find it, commercial opportunities. So we look across the full spectrum.
Our next question comes from Geoff Meacham with Citibank.
I had a pipeline one for Dean. So on the expanding development of your [ TL1 ] in immunology, I'm assuming that a broad development program was already in place surrounding the Prometheus deal but. Maybe talk about the selection of the indications that you just announced from a mechanism perspective and maybe what additional development opportunities do you like across the I&I space.
Yes. Thank you very much for the question. I mean the focus initially was in the GI space, and we're -- our ambition is to be the first and best-in-class TL1A. We've always talked about that expansion. We've always thought about that expansion, and that expansion has been recently sort of outlined with recent Phase IIb studies in rheumatology and dermatology.
The question is, could we see more? We'll always leave that open. I do think that the Phase III for ulcerative colitis and especially for Crohn's disease is very important to me, not just because it's in GI, but in Crohn's, there's an element of fibrosis. And the other one is the Phase II in SSc-ILD. I need to see that because if I see that and Crohn's disease, then you all a sudden start talking about not just similar to other anti-cytokines dampening down inflammation, you then have a leverage in terms of fibrosis. And that would steer us in relationship to what we would do next.
Our next question comes from Akash Tewari with Jefferies.
So your team has talked about a 1.0 and 2.0 solid tumor strategy, with 1.0 being [indiscernible] -- sorry, [indiscernible] and then 2.0 is combining the ADCs with the PD-1 VEGF. At ESMO, it looked like your TROP2 is showing a 6- to 12-month benefit on overall survival, at least it's trending that way in second line. And that's triple what we're seeing with the PD-1 VEGF. So what gets you more excited? The signal you're seeing with your TROP2 or the PD-1 VEGF class? And how does that impact your appetite to potentially run another round of Phase III combo trials with the LaNova asset?
Yes. So I should probably reset. I don't believe that we've said anything in relationship to how you've talked about it in terms of the different phases. We are extremely excited about the TROP2, the sac-TMT, and we've had a productive relationship with Kelun.
One of the things I would just emphasize is it's very easy to sit there and say, "Oh, this is a TROP2 ADC, and we throw all the TROP2 ADCs in a bucket as if they're not different." I think the recent data suggests that there may be differences and we're really interested as we move 15 Phase III studies, but 10 of them are actually in places where the other TROP2s haven't gone. So we're very interested in pushing the sac-TMT with and in the appropriate place with [ IO ] or with other precision targeted.
In relationship to the PD-1 VEGF, we're also interested in advancing that and seeing that data just evolve not just with us, but from the outside world. And that will define to us where we would put the PD-1 VEGF in relationship to [indiscernible]. But I just want to just make sure that we're very excited about the sac-TMT. We've shown data, Kelun has shown data. You've highlighted how it's different. We believe that we're eager to see the trials that can drive that in -- not just in the Chinese patient populations, but in the U.S. and globally.
Our next question comes from Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.
I wanted to just touch on the ENFLONSIA launch in the United States heading into RSV season. Can you just talk about the initial feedback, say, versus the competition and kind of what you're seeing in terms of potential uptake as we head into RSV season.
Yes. Maybe I'll start, and then if Caroline wants to jump in, she can as well. Overall, we feel good about where we are with ENFLONSIA. If you look at how that launch has progressed, I would point out that while we did receive, obviously, all the full approvals we were a couple of weeks later than initially expected. So that did play into this because it put us a little bit later into the season. We did highlight, as Caroline pointed out in the prepared remarks, there was $75 million -- or $79 million of initial stocking, and that really was the seating order from the [ VFC ] as well as other wholesaler distributor stocking.
So as we sit here right now looking at the season and into next year, we really continue to see an opportunity. I would point out, if you think about the benefits ENFLONSIA brings, there's no weight-based dosing, our ability to look at our total contracted portfolio of vaccines. All of the things we've talked about continue to make us believe this will be a very important vaccine. And as we look forward into '26 and beyond, we continue to see that. We'll see where the rest of '25 plays out, but it's all in all, given the timing of when we started, we feel good.
And just to add to Rob's comments, we had the seating order in the third quarter. We expect that to be utilized during the fourth quarter. Feedback from customers has been very good, and we look forward to having an impact this season and much more of an impact as we go into 2026.
Our next question comes from Daina Graybosch with Leerink Partners.
I wonder if you could give us an update on KEYTRUDA and the proportion of the sales that you have from early-stage settings and a breakdown of which of those tumor types of the 10 approved is driving that revenue?
Yes. I'll start, and Dean and then Caroline can jump in as well. So if you recall, if you look at where we are in the earlier stage setting, we have currently 10 approved indications, now 5 with overall survival, which is important. And if you look at where we are going forward, the drivers of that in that cervical continues to be important, [ RCC. ] We continue to see TNBC in non-small cell lung cancer, all are important drivers. We're obviously excited. We don't have approval yet, but you heard that we have yet another potential OS benefit coming, [ 905. ] I believe it is, that Dean spoke about earlier. So yet more coming, and that's in muscle invasive bladder cancer.
So a lot out there, we're excited about where it goes. It's driving over half of our growth. Right now, it's coming from earlier-stage indications. And we achieved -- if you look back to -- we indicated we would be at 25% in 2024, and '25, we're now -- we're exceeding 25%. We have not given specific targets, but we see it growing as a percent overall of total sales, and it's over half of our growth. So it is an important driver, especially as we think about the QLEX launch that is just starting to get underway.
Our next question comes from Chris Schott with JPMorgan.
Just Rob, a question on MFN. I appreciate the color in the prepared remarks. But just following some of the recent deals in the administration, both with Pfizer and Astra, should we be thinking about this type of structure as a reasonable framework for the industry? And just any updates in terms of where Merck is in terms of its discussion with the administration on MFN.
Yes, Chris, thanks for the question. As I said in the prepared remarks, overall, we're aligned with what the administration is trying to achieve, which is to lower the out-of-pocket cost for patients at the pharmacy counter and at the same time, to get foreign prices up to ensure that foreign governments are paying their fair share. So those broad-based principles, we're aligned with. We are in continuing discussions with the administration. I'm not going to give any specific updates other than to say, I am very optimistic that we're going to have a constructive outcome to those discussions. And the framework, we'll wait until we actually have something to talk about there to be more specific to how we see ours coming out.
Our next question comes from Carter Gould with Cantor.
You had a pair of good WELIREG data recently. So Dean, I wanted to ask you around your confidence and ultimately hitting on OS in the 022 study and the importance of that in moving the needle on adoption in that setting.
Yes. So we are equally excited about the WELIREG. It's a first-in-class treatment. We've announced the top line Phase III for the second line as well as the adjuvant. And I also think it's important that in one of the trials, the ability of a HIF-2 alpha to do something on top of the VEGF blocking agent is important.
In relationship to OS, I think OS is always really important. It's important for the FDA, but most importantly, it's important for patients. So we are really eagerly awaiting to see if and when we cross that boundary. And so yes, we are excited, and we have a broad portfolio program in WELIREG. And so we'll be anxious to share those results when we get them.
Our next question comes from Terence Flynn with Morgan Stanley.
Caroline, I know you commented somewhat on expenses for 2026. I was just wondering if you can give us any comments on the top line in terms of some of the pushes and pulls as we think about that. Recognizing you probably don't want to give guidance yet at this point, but just maybe help us think through some of the levers there.
Yes. Of course, Terence. So as we go into 2026, we are expecting solid top line growth for our company, and that growth will increasingly be fueled by the number of new launches that we have. So we're expecting continued patient impact and revenue growth from WINREVAIR. OHTUVAYRE now is also part of the Merck portfolio. We have CAPVAXIVE, which is off to a very strong start, and ENFLONSIA. And on top of that, we have our Animal Health business where growth will also be driven by new launches, including BRAVECTO Quantum, the 12-month injection, as well as [indiscernible], our new dermatology product.
We also have the expectation of continued growth in oncology. So the last question, WELIREG, has strong growth with greater potential ahead of it as we get into other successful studies and treat a broader range of patients. And we do expect continued growth in KEYTRUDA, albeit at a slightly slower pace than we've seen as we are getting to peak penetration in some of the indications, and we do expect some headwind from price in our ex U.S. markets.
The other headwinds that we will face will be related to loss of exclusivity and generic entrants. And that really is deficit that's seen generic entrant halfway through 2025 in the U.S., BRIDION, which will have its LOE partway through 2026. And we also expect the headwind of IRA price setting on the JANUVIA family and the generic entrant for JANUVIA midway through next year. But overall, confident in our ability to continue to positively impact patients and drive solid growth.
Our next question comes from Umer Raffat with Evercore.
I was wondering if I should ask about Organon situation, but I realize that's multiple years removed, stand-alone company. So maybe there's not a whole lot you could say anyways. So let me focus instead on CADENCE trial instead. And Dean, my question is, it finished late September. You're indicating first half '26. It sounds to me like that's a little longer than I would have expected to get the readout out there on 150-patient trial. So could you just catch us up on your thought process there?
Yes. So just as everyone knows, we have ZENITH, HYPERION earlier in disease, those data have come through. We have a primary completion date of CADENCE this year, and we said that we would be presenting it to the data in a meeting. I believe that we will be putting out a top line once we know it as well. So when we talked about the first half of -- or the first quarter or first half of 2026, we were talking about the full data at a medical meeting.
We are eager to see that result because that result will suggest to us how much we can use WINREVAIR outside of the patient population that's formally PAH. And so we're eager to see those results as well.
Our next question comes from Courtney Breen with Bernstein.
Just coming back to some of the White House price policy pressures and comments you've made already. I wanted to ask this in a slightly different way. If we look at kind of Merck's ratio of revenue today, it's about 50-50 inside the U.S. versus outside the U.S. How different do you expect that to be in 5 years' time? And how much of that could be attributed to product mix? And how much down to kind of equalization of price?
Yes, Courtney, thanks for the question. I'm not going to get into specific guidance. Obviously, if you look at where our business is driving, we're excited about the diversity of the pipeline we're bringing. A lot of those opportunities disproportionately will be U.S. based, primarily just because of the nature of the drugs and the uptakes and the value you can assert to the U.S. market.
So mix will affect how we look forward. How MFN or other pricing dynamics change, it's too early to say because we need to see what it is. And so I would leave it at that for right now.
Our next question comes from Vamil Divan with Guggenheim Securities.
So I appreciate the comments around 2026 and how to think about the driver there. I had a question just more on GARDASIL. Maybe it's a good thing we haven't talked about GARDASIL on this call. But just obviously a challenging year for that product. I'm curious how you think about that product. So in 2026 and beyond, both in the U.S., where obviously it's been sort of evolving segment around vaccination and maybe some adjustment to the guidelines around the U.S. recommendations, but also then ex-U.S., given you'll be annualizing out of the China and Japan impact. So just any sense of -- I think consensus is expecting a sort of robust return to growth for that product over the next several years. Just curious how you're thinking about that.
Thank you for the question, Vamil. So GARDASIL still remains a very important product, and we're really proud of the impact that we're having in helping protect people from certain HPV-related cancers. As we look forward, in the United States indeed today, we are seeing growth in our vaccinations in the 9, 10 age group as well as the mid adult segment. And that's being offset by a lower level in the adolescent segment, and that's really driven by a reduction in the eligible population, and there are some macro factors there.
As we look forward for the United States, we are hopeful for growth. But clearly, as you mentioned, the ACIP recommendation around that dosing schedule will very much impact whether we do or don't grow in the United States. And as we've said before, we will always look at having the appropriate price point in the United States based on the value that we are providing society.
Outside of the United States, you rightly note that we will lap the impact of China as well as the reduction in the cohort for the catch-up in Japan as we go through 2026. So we look forward to protecting more people around the world.
What we're seeing in countries outside of the United States, some of the public programs have really reached maturity. So we expect the routine cohort to be vaccinated each and every year. The private market is a great opportunity for growth for us. And that's really in the mid adult segment, age 27 through 45, where we're creating the system to enable people to get vaccinated in many countries around the world. And it's also in some countries in the broad age cohort. So we will be working to activate that cohort. It does take time, but we'll be activating that cohort to drive growth in the private segment as we go forward. Overall, we expect modest growth for GARDASIL in the near term.
Our next question comes from Luisa Hector with Berenberg.
Just back to KEYTRUDA. Could you just update us on your latest expectations for conversion from IV to subcutaneous and the kind of pace that we could expect. And with that in mind, Caroline, you made a comment on KEYTRUDA growth at a slower pace for '26. So just to check whether that is the overall franchise or IV only? And will you report the sales separately?
Yes. Luisa, this is Rob. I'll maybe start and then Caroline can address the last part of your question. So if you look at expectations for QLEX, as we've said, it's early in the launch, but everything appears to be on track. And there's no changes to what we previously communicated. We continue to expect that we're going to achieve 30% to 40% patient adoption and that, that will take us out to 18 to 24 months to achieve that. So nothing has changed there. I would highlight, as we've pointed out in the past, that we will have a permanent J code, but we won't get that probably for 6 months. And during that first 6-month window, you can anticipate a slower uptick just because with people using temporary J codes, there can be longer reimbursement windows. And so some people will hesitate to order until they have the permanent J code.
We've done everything we can to learn from the other subcutaneous products that have launched ahead of us. I can tell you that we've put in place, I believe, a commercial contracting strategy that really will make it friction less to convert patients over, or in the cases of new patients, to adopt the therapy, and that's important to make sure that we are driving this because access and conversion are what is our goal or adoption is the goal we have moving forward.
I'll let Caroline speak to her comments about the overall growth next year.
Yes. So Luisa, the comments I gave were with regards to KEYTRUDA in its entirety, where we expect KEYTRUDA to slow although it'd be an important contributor to growth for our company. Within that, to Rob's point, we are really excited about the contributions that QLEX can bring as we do provide treatment options for more and more patients as next year unfolds.
And we will anticipate reporting separately in 2026.
Our last question comes from Alex Hammond with Wolfe Research.
On EyeBio, can you help with the Phase III BRUNELLO result in context? What's the [indiscernible] to deem the trial a success? And I guess given the competitive nature of this indication, how do you plan to execute commercially?
Well, let me just say that we're really excited about pushing this first-in-class MK-3000 and novel candidate targeting the wind pathway. I would just remind, I believe this is the first time a novel mechanism has been pushed through in relationship to having clear human genetic evidence for it, and we plan to evaluate that MK-3000, not just in diabetic macular edema, but also neovascular age-related macular degeneration as well.
In terms of commercial sort of execution, I would hold off until we see the data from these trials, but we're pushing very fast and very forward in relationship to this because this could be one of the first new mechanisms, kind of like the WINREVAIR story where it's the first generally new mechanism that can make a profound effect on such a broad disease.
Yes. And maybe just to add a little bit on the commercial opportunity. And if you look at where we are today in the United States, there's about 1.6 million patients with diabetic macular edema. So this is the leading cause of [indiscernible] in people with diabetes. And so as you look at that population, still, there's a very large opportunity because 30% to 40% of patients on therapy are not responsive to the current anti-VEGF. So the ability potentially to see conversions is significant. If you look, it's about a $13 billion market today, and we believe that our ability to drive that kind of conversion with this new molecular entity is important.
As far as the commercial infrastructure, we're really combining the EyeBio's leadership strengths and our expertise in ophthalmology and pushing these forward. And I'm quite confident that we will have the global infrastructure to be able to drive this. We're investing pretty heavily behind this. And when you look at this and combined with the Tiespectus, this is a multibillion dollar opportunity for the company. We're very excited. I think this is one of the underappreciated areas of what we have, and I credit Dean and the team, they've advanced these by a couple of years from what we originally anticipated when we did the deal. So this is a win in my book.
Great. Thank you all for your great questions, and we'll end the call there. Please reach out to the IR team if you have any follow-ups.
Thank you for your participation. Participants, you may disconnect at this time.
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Merck & Co. — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Merck & Co. — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: $17,3 Mrd. (+4%; +3% ex-FX).
- KEYTRUDA: $8,1 Mrd. (+8%).
- Top-Produkte: WINREVAIR $360 Mio. (≈24.000 Rezepte), WELIREG $196 Mio. (+41%), GARDASIL $1,7 Mrd. (-25%; -3% ex-China).
- Weitere: CAPVAXIVE $244 Mio., ENFLONSIA $79 Mio. (Initiale Vorratskäufe).
- Marge & EPS: Grossmarge 81,9% (+1,4 pp); Q3 non-GAAP EPS $2,58.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Pipeline-Fokus: ~80 Phase‑III‑Studien, >20 geplante Produktstarts; Management nennt ein kumulatives Umsatzpotenzial >$50 Mrd. bis Mitte 2030er.
- Investitionen: Ausbau der US-Produktion (Ankündigung Elkton, VA) und erhöhte F&E/Launch‑Investitionen; gezielte Kapitalallokation mit fortgesetzten Rückkäufen (~$5 Mrd. Ziel für 2025).
- Akquisition & BD: Abschluss der Verona‑Übernahme (OHTUVAYRE) und BD‑Rahmen: Fokus auf wissenschaftsgetriebene Deals in der Regel $1–15 Mrd., bei Bedarf auch größer.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Umsatz 2025: $64,5–65,0 Mrd. (Wachstum 1–2% ex-FX; ~-0,5% FX‑Effekt bei Mid‑Oct‑Rates).
- Profitabilität: Grossmarge ~82%; OpEx angenommen bei ~$25,9–26,4 Mrd.; sonst. Aufwand $400–500 Mio.; Steuersatz 14–15%.
- EPS‑Guidance: $8,93–8,98 (Midpoint $8,96); Effekte: Koselugo +$0,09, Verona ≈-$0,04, FX ≈-$0,15; Annahme ~2,51 Mrd. ausstehende Aktien.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Business Development: Nachfrage zu Deal‑Profil; Management konkret: Schwerpunkt $1–15 Mrd., aber offen für größere, wenn wissenschaftlich sinnvoll.
- KEYTRUDA QLEX: Konversionserwartung 30–40% binnen 18–24 Monaten; temporäre Verzögerung durch fehlenden Permanent‑J‑Code (~6 Monate) wurde klar erläutert.
- Preis‑/Policy (MFN): Management signalisiert Übereinstimmung mit Zielen der Administration, blieb jedoch bei Details vage und nannte keine konkreten Vereinbarungen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bewertung: Solides Quartal mit klaren Wachstumstreibern (Onkologie, Animal Health, neue Impfstoffe) und einer breiten Phase‑III‑Pipeline; Guidance bleibt konservativ, unterstützt durch Akquisitionseffekte und Launch‑Investitionen. Kurzfristige Risiken: Preis‑/Politik‑Unsicherheit, GARDASIL‑Sichtbarkeit und FX; mittelfristig bieten zahlreiche PDUFA‑Termine und Phase‑III‑Readouts erhebliches Upside‑Potenzial.
Merck & Co. — Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Good afternoon, everybody. We're going to get started here. But I'm Terence Flynn, Morgan Stanley's U.S. biopharma analyst. I'm very pleased to be hosting Merck this afternoon.
From the company, we have Rob Davis, the company's Chairman and CEO; and Dr. Eliav Barr, who is the company's Head of Global Clinical Development and also CMO. Thank you both so much for joining us today this afternoon. Looking forward to chatting.
Just quickly, for important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative.
With that, I'm going to turn it over to Rob for some opening remarks, and then we'll dive into it.
Great. Well, Terence, thank you. Thank you for having us, and thank you for everyone participating. Maybe just a few thoughts to kind of set the stage before we jump in.
If you look at where we are as Merck right now, I would say we're really in a transformation. We're moving from being historically the KEYTRUDA company to increasingly really on a precipice of a wave of launches you're going to see coming -- to becoming a launch company and a much more diversified company, which are things we've been very focused on.
If you look, we've communicated over $50 billion of commercial opportunity by the mid-2030s. And that doesn't even include some of the more recent deals we've done, like the recent deal we did for Verona or the deal for EyeBio, which each of those are a multibillion-dollar opportunity.
So as we sit here today, we feel good about the pipeline we're building, the commercial potential we have. We have to realize it, we have to add to it. So we're going to continue to invest in, augment and accelerate our internal pipeline. And we're going to continue to look to do business development. So we're not slowing down across any of those fronts.
But importantly, with the fact that we now have 20-plus real new molecular entities that we're going to be bringing to market, almost all of which have blockbuster potential, our focus is about how do we launch all of these opportunities successfully, how do we do them in a way that delivers for the patients. And then ultimately, as you know, the way we think at Merck, if we take care of the patient, ultimately, we will take care of all of you, the shareholders. So that's our focus.
I feel very good. We've talked about the hill versus the clip of the KEYTRUDA LOE. That continues to be the case. My confidence in our ability to have sustainable growth long term continues to grow. And I'm sure we'll touch upon all that in our discussion that we go forward from here.
Absolutely. Well, no, thanks so much, Rob, for framing that out. Before we get into all the more exciting stuff, I'm going to ask the question that I don't think anyone has the answer to, but just set the stage, latest perspective on tariffs and MFN, kind of where we stand. Because I think that is still top of mind for a lot of investors here, a lot of uncertainty. But just what are you hearing? How are your conversations with the administration going on those 2 topics?
Maybe start with the tariffs and then we can move into the MFN. On the tariff front, we've done a lot to prepare ourselves. And we are now very well positioned through both the way we've managed the inventory across the company, but most importantly, as we started to shift our manufacturing footprints and have in place plans to really do U.S. production for U.S. sales.
So I would say, as well as you can be prepared, we are prepared, depending on how the tariff situation evolves. Still unclear. We still have to see the outcome of the 232 investigation. So that is still out there and we'll see how that plays itself out.
As it relates to MFN, probably as you've heard from others, there are several areas where I would say, on principle, we agree with the administration and we're willing to work with the administration, and in fact, we've been having ongoing dialogues with them. The question is really how do we think about taking what are principles we agree to, like for instance, we agree, we have to find a way to get foreign prices up, and not to enrich the industry, but frankly, to allow us to bring prices in the U.S. down.
We agree that we have to find a way to make sure that the out-of-pocket cost for patients is lower. Our belief, the best way to do that is to go after the $0.50 of every dollar that sits in the middle. You've heard of the industry say that in the past. For every $1 of price you see, only half, actually less than half, comes to us as the innovator, the developer and the manufacturer. If we could just capture that other $0.50 and bring that to the patient, you could cut cost in half. We continue to believe that's one of the best things we could do as an industry.
Direct-to-consumer is maybe a path to do that, and that's something we're open to. But beyond that, I think it's really going to have to -- we're going to have to see how it plays out and where the conversations go over the next coming weeks and months.
Yes. One thing a recent cabinet meeting highlighted was potentially a linkage between tariffs and MFN. Is that something that you're hearing? And hence, as a result, is this going to -- the tariff situation going to carry on further because there's this linkage and so resolution of all this might be maybe longer than we expect versus it being 2 independent parallel processes?
Well, the short answer is I saw the same cabinet discussion. Beyond that, I really can't speculate because we've had no conversations in that regard, but I did see the same thing you're referring to. And we'll have to see how that plays -- how that really plays out in practice. Unclear yet.
And then on the DTC side, that's something again a lot of your peer companies have talked about as well. Are there any areas that you see as you think about this forward pipeline for the company? You have probably one of the broadest upcoming launch product sets in the industry. Are there certain areas that you would point to that are more amenable for DTC versus others that may be aren't?
Well, as you look at the direct-to-consumer, the conversation so far have been more with existing products than it is forward-looking products. And today, our portfolio, as you know, is more Part B focused. I think what lends itself best to direct-to-consumer is really drugs that are in the pharmacy benefit, largely Part D drugs.
That said, we're open to it with some of the products we have. We have some HIV drugs, diabetes drugs, others we could consider. And then if it would become something on a forward-looking basis, there are opportunities that we would look to do it there as well. So we need to see though how it defines out before I would say specifically which products we would be looking to do that with.
Okay. Makes sense. One of your peer companies, Lilly, announced it was raising the price of Mounjaro in the U.K. You talked about this price alignment, but there are obviously -- there are certain hurdles, challenges across the portfolio. But are there certain areas that are easier to accomplish that in versus others maybe as you think about afford -- or I guess the derivative question is, again, new product launches, how does the company think about the strategy for new product launches? Because maybe that's a little bit easier address than some of the existing products.
Exactly. So if you look at what Lilly did, one, I would say, it's very product specific. But if you look more broadly, the way we've been thinking about this in Merck, and I think you hit upon it, we're at a point of transition with our pipeline. So we are going to be launching multiple new drugs into the market. The best time and place to affect the price imbalance between the United States and the rest of the world is with the launch of the new product. It's much harder to go back for products that already have established presences in the space to do that.
So as we look forward, I can tell you, we already have changed our approach with the way we think about pricing and are actively considering how can we get prices up outside the United States and how do we engage in those discussions. And more broadly, as an industry, we've had a lot of conversations with the U.K., with the European Union and other governments to start to express to them an understanding that we need to see the disparity addressed. And we'll see how it plays out.
But it is already changing our strategy as we look forward. And I think our pipeline positions us in a place, frankly, to be, in some ways, better positioned than many in that regard.
Yes. Do you, from those initial conversations, do you think that European Union is amenable to that? Or how open are they? What's going to be the pushback from them, do you think?
I would say, generally, in all the conversations I've been involved with, either -- and probably more at a country level than at the Europe level. We have had conversations with EU broadly, but at a country level. There's no -- no one is challenging the principles upon what we're talking about. It really comes down to the practical, often budgetary pressures that everyone faces, and then how do you judge relative value?
And so I think that is going to be the bigger challenge. How do we align on what is value? And then once we align on that, how do you translate that into something that they can absorb from a budget perspective? And that's why I think this is going to take time. It's taken us 50 years to get to where we are, really -- actually longer than that, post World War II, it's going to take some time to transition. But we're committed to trying to work on that path to bringing equalization -- to make sure that we bring full value for the innovation we bring to the marketplace.
Okay. Great. Maybe we'll just pivot over to strategy, again, you talked about this a little bit. But just as you think about it, you guys have leaned in on the BD side, doing more of the kind of pre -- I'd say, pre-Phase III pre-commercialization type deals. You mentioned Verona, EyeBio as 2 examples. You also have the TL1A that you brought in, obviously, WINREVAIR as well. So you've been pretty active there. I mean as you think about entering this period where you do have a high percentage of LOEs, does the calculus change at all in terms of the types of assets you consider?
I mean I think a lot of investors look at AbbVie and how they kind of navigated this period. They ultimately acquired a big company, Allergan, they had 2 mega blockbuster launches, gave trough EPS guidance, and then came out the other side. But how do you think about that as you get into this period? Is it still just execute the plan that we've laid out in terms of these kind of $10 billion, $15 billion deals? Or is there to become a time period where maybe you need to reconsider how to approach that?
Yes. If you look at the, I'd say, the common theme, and we've done some earlier-stage stuff, and as you pointed out, we've done some late-stage stuff, and even with commercialized assets, obviously, most recently with Verona. But there's a consistent theme. There's a science-driven narrative around it. There is a situation where we see usually a new mechanism of action, either first-in-class, best-in-class or both, and one where we think there continues to be a significant unmet need.
And then lastly, one where it's not just that deal, but then what can it lead to? So we like to talk about first best next. And the next is, how can I think about combination therapy? How do I think about -- continuing to evolve in that space once I'm there, once I have a beachhead? So that's been kind of a consistent theme. As I sit here today, I feel like we've done a good job. We've moved with urgency. We've invested over $50 billion into business development since I've become CEO.
And I think about the multibillion-dollar opportunities, think about it, when we talked to you last year, we have 2 more Ohtuvayre and what we have with EyeBio that we didn't have last year and with pretty much everything we had last year continuing forward. So those 2, for instance, aren't even in the $50 billion plus. So I think we need a few more of those. And I think if we can do that, continue to drive our pipeline, we're well positioned.
But if we don't find those, I'm not opposed to doing a commercial deal. But it has to be one that still comes down to the basis of science. I think doing something just to solve a short-term problem is the wrong answer. It has to be sustainable, which is then based in the science and how does it fit within the overall portfolio. So the $1 billion to $15 billion that we've been following continues to be our preferred area, but we remain open to others if the parameters of value, science come together in the right way.
Okay. Great. The other area that's I think garnering increased focus is just the opportunity set in China. You guys have announced several deals there: oral GLP, PD-1/VEGF, Lp(a). So you've obviously been fairly active. But as you think about that, is there opportunity for that to expand further into other therapeutic areas? And how do you think about making those kind of decisions vis-a-vis maybe some of the U.S. biotech opportunities?
Yes. So we go for the best science wherever it is. I wouldn't look to the fact -- it just happened to be that the opportunities in China presented themselves around the same time frame. It was not a pivot in our strategy. Because since then, you look, we did Verona, that wasn't a Chinese-based asset. We did EyeBio, that's not a Chinese-based asset.
So we go to where the best science is. We continue to think the U.S. offers as good a science, if not the best science, in the world. But we're not limiting ourselves there. We will go to wherever that is. And China is an area where there's some interesting things. But I wouldn't say it's also therapeutic area specific. It's broad-based in what we would look to do there. So there and the U.S. as the opportunities present themselves will be where you're seeing us focused.
Okay. Great. Maybe we'll move onto one of your key new product launches, is just WINREVAIR. Obviously, it's off to a strong start. Maybe just talk to us about kind of the dynamics that you're seeing kind of U.S., rest of world, and how to think about the cadence into '26. And then the other kind of question we get more frequently now is just the impact from this upcoming label expansion decision, which could move into slightly earlier patients.
Yes. Maybe I'll start with kind of where the commercial market is and I'll let Eliav speak to the label and how we think that could expand. The high-level answer is we continue to be very pleased with how the launch is going. Everything continues to perform. Access is strong. Number of physicians prescribing continues to grow. Patients on therapy is growing. And our ability to see increasingly patients move from later lines, so from the people going on triple therapy and even some on dual therapy, everything is moving as you would expect.
And then as you look beyond the United States, we're still early actually in the approvals. As you know, as you get approvals in Europe, it's more about getting the reimbursement. So as we move into the back half of 2025, you're going to see more major markets start to have reimbursement in Europe. We just launched in Japan, which is a very important market, a very big market for this drug. So as you get into '26, really, you're going to start to see that international piece take off.
But the early days of what we've seen in markets like Germany where we are in the market, it's moving very similar to what we've seen in the U.S. So I think the U.S. as a proxy for you start with the sickest patients, you test and you learn how to manage the drug, and then as you get comfortable, you start to expand into earlier-stage disease and into broader patient populations, that's what's happening here and that's what we're seeing globally. But maybe you can speak to HYPERION and ZENITH.
Sure. So the ZENITH trial, as read out earlier in the year and was a -- we submitted for regulatory approval, in the United States, we have a very, very broad label. So the ZENITH trial was already within the label.
In Europe, this is very important for reimbursement because ZENITH, as you recall, is the late-stage patients, patients with very severe functional Class III and IV disease. And by being able to demonstrate the efficacy of sotatercept against hard endpoints in this population, not only do we expand the label, but we also have the opportunity for a proper reimbursement decision. Nevertheless, being that it is important in the United States because these -- it does continue to demonstrate over and over again the extraordinary benefit that sotatercept gives to patients across the spectrum.
We just announced a few -- a little while ago that the HYPERION study is positive, and it will be presented at the ERS meetings later on this month. HYPERION is very different than ZENITH. It's early patients, within a year of diagnosis, mostly on 2-drug regimens, so not on 3-drug regimens. A lot more connective tissue disease, a broader age range. And so this represents the entry level, the people who are recently diagnosed with PAH.
The results of the study were really terrific and completely consistent with what we've seen with all of the other studies. And I think this will fill a really important gap right at the time that physicians are thinking, "I'm feeling a lot more comfortable with WINREVAIR. Now I really want to try to get to my earlier patients, the patients that are just starting to have symptoms from PAH, are on 2 drugs. And now I want to start them on something that will help them improve outcomes over the long term."
So this is going to be a really important study as well, and you will be able to see the benefit just being consistently seen, whether it's STELLAR, ZENITH, HYPERION. And that kind of covers the spectrum of PAH.
One thing just you might clarify because you didn't mention it specifically, but the mortality benefits from ZENITH.
Sure. So in the ZENITH trial, you have hard endpoints, including mortality benefit. And again, that's the reason why European agencies, I think, would be particularly -- reimbursement agencies or reimbursement authorities will be particularly interested in this data set because they have that bar to reimburse.
So I think we see this time to clinical worsening in STELLAR study, the hard endpoints including mortality benefit in ZENITH, we see again time to clinical worsening better in HYPERION and you'll see those data soon. And I think that this is a really compelling data set, including a very clear and well-understood safety profile. So very exciting data and I think it's going to be very important for the field.
And the SBLA PDUFA date for ZENITH is October 25.
That's correct.
HYPERION, I'm assuming now that you have other study, will be a separate SBLA filing?
Yes, that's correct. Yes. But again, it's -- these are pretty very clear.
Yes. And is there an opportunity to do, I think maybe the company has talked about it before, but like a combined analysis of mortality across these studies almost, like on a post hoc basis?
We're going to be doing a lot of those analyses. That's going to be very important. Mortality is an important endpoint. We're going to look at also transplants and other really severe outcomes for the patients. Those data are going to be coming over the next few months.
Yes. The other thing is there were some initial questions always on safety just given what this drug has done. And I think it's important with STELLAR and then using the STELLAR data, plus what we have from these studies and then our ongoing follow-up study, we have SOTERIA, I think you're also going to see us focus on bringing real-world evidence to give confidence to the fact that the safety profile of this drug is quite, quite good.
Our confidence of that is quite high. We want to make sure that we have the data to back it up. So that's also another area where we're focusing a lot of our data aggregation, to be able to give people the same confidence we have.
Is that something that you think that maybe the community docs who treat PAH are still focused on, or do you think that's more of a Wall Street issue, the safety question?
Well, I think patients are -- I mean, physicians are always interested in balancing benefit-risk. I think that the safety profile of sotatercept is well known, it's really quite good. We haven't seen any new safety signals. And I think that all the clinical trials have been really good at defining how you reduce doses for hemoglobin and some of the bleeding elements and so on.
What's really important with the SOTERIA study, which is now really quite a large study with patients on drug for 5, 7 years now, is long-term outcomes. People want to know, well, what happens if things get worse over time, things get better over time? Is the efficacy the same? What we're seeing is the efficacy patients are -- the efficacy findings continue to be really good. The safety profile, again, quite manageable. There's no accumulation of problems, no worsening.
And so these data, I think, are very important because now we have patients who are in the real world and will be on this drug for a quite substantial period of time. They're feeling better, they're doing better. We just have to be able to share what the data are. And we will have every 6 to 12-month updates so that docs are comfortable with that.
Great. Maybe just the last one on sotatercept is there's obviously a Phase II data from the CADENCE study that you guys are expecting later this year. So maybe first part of the question is just frame for us kind of what you guys are looking for to move that into a Phase III study. And then the one that we frequently get is how to size the number of people that would be eligible for this therapy vis-a-vis the current PAH population, because I see a lot of different estimates out there. But how is the company thinking about eligibility in the patients that you enrolled in the study?
Yes, maybe I'll let you start and if I can add anything.
Sure. So just to start with the end first. These patients are patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction that have high blood pressure in both the pulmonary veins and arteries. So it's a particular subset of what's called HFpEF. The TAM, the total addressable market, is roughly the size of PAH, we believe. The difference versus PAH is that, because there's never been anything for these patients, they're somewhat less diagnosed.
Now what we did with the CADENCE study is a Phase II trial that looked at 2 doses of sotatercept against placebo on the BRCA on the standard medicines in these patients, and we'll have the results. The primary endpoint is blood pressure in the pulmonary vasculature, so-called pulmonary vascular resistance. And you have secondary endpoints, including the classic, the standard 6-minute walking distance. And we'll see what those results are.
It's our expectation that those data will be available later on this year. And should the data look robust, then we would move into a Phase III program. But I think that the -- looking at enrollment rates in the study, at the beginning, they were pretty slow. But as people began to understand what sotatercept can do and they recognize there's potentially some hope with these patients, our enrollment rate went really quickly up. So I think that there's going to be a lot of enthusiasm should the data turn out to be supportive of use of sotatercept.
Can you remind us what you think a clinically meaningful the result would be on PVR? I mean I remember a lot of the PVR data from PAH, but in this setting, is it similar, is it...
It's going to be something similar to that. I think this patient population in general is similar to HYPERION's, and so what's -- in terms of age and comorbidities and so on. But that gives me some confidence in the sense that HYPERION was such a great result. So I hope that will replicate. It's a different disease, so -- I don't have any data. But we're hoping to get the data later on this year.
Okay. Great. Is that a press release opportunity? I mean this might be a question for Peter. Is that a medical conference presentation -- or what's kind of for a Phase II, remind us like Merck's standard disclosure for this kind of things?
Yes. So we'll have to wait and see what the data is. But our expectation is we see the data near the end of this year, likely it would be for a conference, probably sometime early next year. But obviously, a lot of it depends on what the data is.
Okay. Great. I just want to kind of drill down to the pipeline a little bit further here. I think you guys have talked about this a lot, most recently on earnings, you reaffirmed this over $50 billion opportunity. You mentioned it again here. I think oncology is one area where maybe, if I look at consensus versus how you guys are thinking about it, you say over $25 billion, I would guess there's not that much in the Street models really that much. So when you look at your opportunity set in oncology, beyond KEYTRUDA, what do you think the biggest disconnects are that people are missing that you're excited about?
Yes. Well, maybe I would just start and say one of the things I think in general when we speak to things underappreciated, and I'll speak to oncology, is the overall breadth of our pipeline. We have now 80 Phase III clinical studies underway, 60 in oncology, all of which could be registration-enabling. So that's a massive Phase III pipeline. And as we said, that's driving 20-plus assets that are unique assets that we think almost all of which have blockbuster potential. So I'll just lay that out there.
But within oncology specifically, if you take the $25 billion, we talked about that there's over $25 billion from our oncology assets, and what is that made up of? It's made up of our antibody drug conjugate portfolio. It's made up of our small molecule portfolio, mainly precision molecular targeting agents, our individualized neoantigen therapy with what we're doing with Moderna and our recently acquired T cell engager that we have as well. So that kind of is what's in that. It excludes the subcutaneous KEYTRUDA, excludes other assets.
If you look at the $25 billion, almost, I guess, a little over half of that $25 billion would be just the ADCs. And within that, I would point to probably the one that we think is underappreciated, is sac-TMT. Sac-TMT currently has 14 Phase III studies underway, 9 of which we think will be basically first-in-class indication. The other 5 could be potentially best-in-class. So we think that in and of itself is a highly differentiated asset, TROP2, that we're going to continue to pursue. And obviously, we invested behind the 14 Phase IIIs based on our understanding of the oncology space and our confidence in what that could be.
Not to mention in the precision molecular space, what we have with our KRAS G12C would be one. Maybe you can hit on the...
Our CYP11A1 inhibitor and our medicine bomedemstat for various myeloproliferative diseases like essential thrombocythemia. So a very large pipeline, very diverse pipeline, new entry into the hematology space. Sac-TMT, I think, is a real workhorse medicine that will help both in maintenance settings in GYN and women's cancers, certain kinds of lung cancer. A lot of these assets are biomarker-defined so that we have deep and defined responses in specific patient populations.
So overall, KEYTRUDA has helped us a lot. We are focused on areas where KEYTRUDA is foundational. But we're not limited to that as hematology points out. And with that, I think oncology is a huge opportunity. I think it is undervalued by investors simply because, we will show you the data in due course, but I think that the result, the ADCs are terrific, as are the targeted agents and combinations of those agents as well.
And maybe if you'd just allow me, because we have so much, so going beyond oncology...
That's one I'll...
Yes, please go ahead. Yes.
On TROP2, because I think there's kind of 2 follow-up questions. Number one is I think investors have maybe become a little less optimistic because of some of the data on the lung cancer side. And so maybe you guys could just speak to what gives you confidence because, again, if I'm assuming half of this $25 billion is for -- a big chunk of that that's probably lung cancer, what gives you the confidence in the lung setting here with the TROP2?
And then the related question is that biomarker question, which Eliav alluded to, is like how critical is the biomarker in unlocking this big opportunity for TROP2? Because I think that's the other thing investors kind of wax and wane on, is like, do you need a biomarker, do you not? And so maybe just...
We are very committed to the biomarker approach, but maybe I'll let -- Eliav can address this.
Sure. So I'll start with TROP2 and then I'll start with lung cancer there like this, overlapping completely. With TROP2, I think that the difference -- so if you look at the different TROP2 agents, each has some issue that I don't think we have with TROP2: ILD on the one side, and on the other side, some really significant diarrhea and problems with potency.
It hasn't -- so our program -- our drug, first of all, from an AE profile is much more of a traditional chemotherapy kind of AE, neutropenia and so on, but not to such an extent that it causes a lot of discontinuation. So first of all, well-tolerated drug with strong efficacy. That's step one.
Step two is where we're going. Merck has traditionally, with KEYTRUDA, been heavily focused in GYN and triple-negative breast cancer and we also have, of course, HR-positive breast cancer studies going on. In any event, in GYN cancers, strong opportunity for sac-TMT. We also see that in specific segments of lung cancer, where people are -- the biggest differentiator between our program and other's program is that we're not going up against the big-gun chemotherapies, because those drugs are well-entrenched, they are quite effective.
What these drugs can't do, like a platinum doublet, can't do, is give you -- allow for long-term anticancer effect. You, one, you'll get through it, you're done, and then you hope. Whereas sac-TMT has a long, long on long, long tail, which enables us to have maintenance therapies. And so instead of going up against the first line, we have a lot of maintenance studies. And that is a concept that's not been exploited too much. But when it has been, the effects have been really quite good in terms of overall survival. So that's that.
Biomarkers is really important because all of these ADCs do have some enrichment, but not for every cancer. And so we have invested quite a bit in a lot of biomarker work, digital pathology, AI, all the kind of whiz-bang sort of stuff. And we've come up with the kind of markers that I think will make the right drug go to the right person at the right time.
That's why we have such a big suite of ADCs. We have sac-TMT, we've got 3 Daiichi compounds, we've got a hem ADC and we've got others in the pipeline. They're not going to cannibalize each other. They're each for that patient and that patient and that patient. And so you'll see that in lung cancer, we have some studies with sac-TMT. We've got our B7-H3 in small cell. And in other cancers, in GYN cancers, we've got sac-TMT. But we also have our ovarian R-DXd with Daiichi.
Overall, we cover a huge number of cancers with really groundbreaking efficacy specific biomarker-defined populations. KEYTRUDA data help us get there. And I think it's going to be -- these drugs are going to be quite transformational in health care.
Rob, I know you want to touch broadly...
Yes. Well, the problem is we have so many things, we're going to not have enough time to cover them all. But no, if you look at a few others, I think, underappreciated, we recently had an investor event where we went into a deep guide, but if you look, we have interesting opportunities with islatravir and doravirine in daily treatment. We have weekly treatment in combination with lenacapravir. We have our own weekly treatment coming in a combination of islatravir with ULO, which we're excited about. We think it's a very interesting next-generation agent. But probably the thing we're most excited about, MK-8527, which is our once-monthly PrEP.
So we have a whole suite of opportunities we now see with over $5 billion of opportunity there and more coming in that space. So I think that's one that it's going to take time for people to get comfortable with. But I think as they do, they will come to appreciate the power we're going to have in that space.
And then the other one is ophthalmology. We have, through the acquisition of EyeBio, we have accelerated that program 2 years. So we're coming 2 years faster than the market than what was originally anticipated. And we have 2 assets, not just 1. We have, importantly, MK-3000, which is currently in Phase III. That's we're looking starting first in DME, but looking then to move into to AMD. But then we also have another asset called Tiespectus, which we think is as meaningful as what MK-3000 is. And so that also is a multibillion-dollar opportunity. So we feel very excited about those.
And then the last one is Animal Health. Our Animal Health business, we're going to more than double it by the time we get out to the mid-2030s. And it's on a story that's very similar to the Human Health business. It's driven by new product innovation in both the Companion Animal and the Production Animal space.
In the Companion Animal space, we have a next-generation JAK inhibitor for atopic dermatitis, NUMELVI, that is launching outside the U.S. It will hopefully launch here in the U.S., get approval later this year, maybe early next year. We just launched our annual -- once per year injectable BRAVECTO, long-acting BRAVECTO, in the United States. We have that outside. We have a whole suite of next-generation vaccines for animals.
And then we have a technology business. That business is going to grow faster than the market, and I think will surprise people with the strength of the growth that we'll bring.
So we're very excited about what we have. And the next time we're together, we'll go through some others. But if you wanted to know -- that's a few areas, I'd say, if you haven't looked, open your book and look a little bit, because I think you'll see there's more there than you probably originally expected.
Great. Well, thank you so much, Rob, Eliav. Really appreciate the time today.
Thank you.
Thanks so much for having us.
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Merck & Co. — Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
Merck & Co. — Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Transformation: Merck positioniert sich als "Launch‑Company" statt nur KEYTRUDA‑Anbieter, mit >20 neuen Wirkstoffen im Portfolio und einem kommunizierten kommerziellen Potenzial von über $50 Mrd. bis Mitte der 2030er.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Preispolitik & MFN: Management will Preisungleichgewicht zwischen USA und Ausland angehen, prüft Maßnahmen zur Reduktion der Patienten‑Out‑of‑Pocket‑Kosten (z.B. Direct‑to‑Consumer) und arbeitet dialogorientiert mit Regierungen.
- Business Development: Wissenschaftsgetriebene BD‑Strategie (vorzugsweise $1–$15 Mrd. Transaktionen), >$50 Mrd. BD‑Investitionen bisher; jüngste Beispiele: Verona, EyeBio, Ohtuvayre.
- Launch‑Execution: Fokus auf Startups zahlreicher Blockbuster‑kandidaten; WINREVAIR (sotatercept) läuft gut, internationale Erstattungen erwarten sie in H2 2025; Label‑/Zulassungsaktivitäten aktiv verfolgt.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Zulassungstermin: Für ZENITH wurde im Call ein PDUFA‑Datum genannt: 25. Oktober.
- Studiestatus: HYPERION ist positiv (Präsentation beim ERS‑Kongress wird angekündigt); CADENCE (HFpEF, Phase II)‑Ergebnisse werden "später in diesem Jahr" erwartet.
- Portfolio‑Updates: Management nennt EyeBio/Verona/Ohtuvayre zusätzlich zum >$50 Mrd. Potenzial; Ophthalmologie (MK‑3000, Tiespectus) und Animal Health als beschleunigte Wachstumsfelder.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Tarife & MFN: Analysen fragten nach einer möglichen Verknüpfung von 232‑Tarifen und MFN; Management bestätigt Dialog mit Administration, bleibt aber bei der praktischen Umsetzung und dem Zeitplan zurückhaltend.
- DTC & Preisstrategie: Nachfrage, welche Produkte sich für Direct‑to‑Consumer eignen; Antwort: vorrangig Part‑D/Apothekenprodukte denkbar, konkrete Produktentscheidungen offen.
- Pipeline & BD‑Risiko: Kritik/Frage zur Notwendigkeit größerer Übernahmen vs. gezielte, wissenschaftsgetriebene Deals; Management bevorzugt nachhaltige, wissenschaftsbasierte Transaktionen und ist offen für Kommerz‑deals, falls sie strategisch passen.
- WINREVAIR & Sicherheit: Analysten wollten Klarheit zu Sicherheit, Mortalität (ZENITH berichtete Mortality‑Benefit) und Real‑World‑Daten (SOTERIA); Management betont fortlaufende Analyse und regelmäßige Updates.
- TROP2 / ADCs: Fragen zu Lungenkrebs‑Daten, Nebenwirkungsprofilen und Biomarker‑Enrichment; Merck setzt auf Biomarker/Pathologie‑Workstreams, um Zielgruppen zu definieren.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Call bestätigt Mercks strategischen Wandel: breite, aggressive Launch‑Pipeline und umfangreiche BD‑Aktivität bieten substanzielle Upside, zugleich bleiben politische Preisrisiken (Tarife/MFN), Launch‑Execution und klinische/vermarktungsseitige Validierung (z.B. ZENITH PDUFA 25. Okt.; CADENCE‑Readout später im Jahr) die entscheidenden Unsicherheitsfaktoren für Aktionäre.
Merck & Co. — Wells Fargo 20th Annual Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Thank you very much for joining us today for the lunch session. My name is Mohit Bansal. I'm Biotech and Pharma Analyst here at Wells Fargo.
And I'm very happy to have the Merck management team with us. We have Caroline Litchfield, the EVP and CFO of the company. We also have Eliav Barr, to talk about all the pipeline here, exciting pipeline. So Eliav is the Senior Vice President and Chief Medical Officer of all the pipeline here, managing all the pipeline development here at Merck. Thank you very much for joining us today.
Thank you.
So Caroline, why don't we start with -- just give a high-level overview of what the progress Mark has been making and what you are -- how -- what is the investment case in the company right now, given the investor set up here?
So thank you all for being here, and thank you for your interest in and support of Merck. Merck is at a time of transformation. We're moving forward with the diversified set of growth drivers for our future. Indeed, we're in the midst of launching 20 products all of which have the potential to advance patient care, almost all of which have blockbuster potential. We have stated that we have the potential for more than $50 billion of revenues by the mid-2030s from this expensive pipeline.
And as a team, we're focused on bringing forward these innovations and excelling in the marketplace. We're pleased with our recent launches of WINREVAIR of CAPFAXIVE. We're at the early stages of our ENFLONSIA launch. You've seen some data readouts. Just this week, we highlighted our Phase III data for enlicitide, our oral PCSK9. We'll have readouts in ophthalmology in HIV in the coming months next year. So we're excited about our future and are confident in our ability at navigating the KEYTRUDA LOE is increasing. But we acknowledge we're not yet done. We continue to look to bring forward our pipeline to excel in our launches and augment our pipeline and portfolio with business development as we did with the planned announcement of the acquisition of Verona. So we're excited for our future, and we look forward to all of your questions.
Awesome. Great. So why don't we start with a small product named KEYTRUDA you have? So the product has been growing. So again, people are concerned about the cliff and all that, but we'll come to that. But before that, we have seen tremendous growth and then in early lines of setting. So what are the next avenues of growth there? And can this sustain the growth in the next few years here as well?
So if I start, Eliav can add to what we have coming through, we're really proud of the impact that KEYTRUDA is having for the patients as they're being treated with cancer. And as you all know, we are offering treatment for a wide range of different cancers, 42 indications now approved in the United States across 18 different tumor types and tumor agnostic indications also. So we've seen profound impact for patients and extremely strong growth and impact for our company, as we go forward, we do expect continued growth for KEYTRUDA the opportunities for growth will come from new indications.
We are still launching the early-stage lung cancer indication in our ex U.S. market. We have women's cancers such as endometrial cancer, cervical cancer, which are important opportunities for patient impact and growth. And we have bladder cancer indications some launching right now, some that we're hopeful for readouts next year. So we do see continued growth in KEYTRUDA, albeit it will slow as we continue to penetrate in some of those indications we've been in for some time. Another opportunity for us with KEYTRUDA is also the new formulation, our subcutaneous version.
And that will enable us to benefit many patients by having an administration that will just take a minute or 2 for the patient, it's going to be extremely helpful for patients, we believe who are taking KEYTRUDA in monotherapy or in combination with another oral agent or in the earliest stage cancer setting. Today, about 25% of the revenue of KEYTRUDA is for patients being treated in the earlier stage second, and that's growing. And this will be an opportunity for those patients. So as we look at the subcutaneous opportunity. We're very excited about that and would expect adoption to be around 30% to 40% of the overall KEYTRUDA business in about an 18- to 24-month window, post-launch. So there seems the element we remain excited about as we continue to help patients with cancer.
And can you talk a little bit about, I mean, what could make this adoption faster or slower? I mean -- and I mean, there is another PD-1 with subcu option out there. So what can you learn from that experience?
So I think what's unique for KEYTRUDA is the breadth of indications it has and its utilization in the earliest stage setting. And that will, we hope, enable more patients to benefit from a subcutaneous formulation in their treatment journey. What we've learned from others is the importance of pricing access and the J-code. So as we look at entering the marketplace, we are pricing to enable broad access for the product. And we are also mindful though that within that first 6-month window where we will not have a permanent J-code.
We will expect that to be somewhat of a headwind to growth in those initial months. That said, and as I mentioned, we still expect to see us get to a 30% to 40% adoption and to get to that level in an 18- to 24-month window.
Got it. Very, very helpful. I think the question is for you, again, if you think about now like -- last few years, you have been trying to build up pieces of the puzzle to actually fill that perceived holes when KEYTRUDA goes off patent, so you have TROP2, you have PD-1/VEGF, now early stage and you use a bunch of other assets. So if you look at that portfolio, I mean, if you have to like how would you -- which give you like the most kind of question, right?
Well, you have to be careful not to discriminating against all of your children, but -- we have -- but in reality, we've got 24 oncology assets in clinical trials right now. Among those, we can divide them into 3 categories. those to continue the immune stimulation against cancer and V940, our collaboration with Moderna on personalized individual neoantigen therapies, one. The second category is to improve on chemotherapies and other tissue targeted approaches. And here, I would highlight our TROP2 fact as well as our collaboration with Daiichi Sankyo.
And among those, both I-DXd and R-DXd, these are 2 compounds for in small cell, prostate ovarian cancer and others. And so you can see they're relatively broad. With respect to the last category, the last category is specific targeting agents that address those drivers of tumor growth. MK-1084, our KRAS G12C mutant inhibitor is really an outstanding exemplary of that. Belzutifan is already marketed and is continuing to be in large-scale clinical trials. We've had some positive results there. And then there'll be others like KRAS and other agents that are novel hormonal agents that I think will be very important in the treatment of different kinds of cancers. So we have a very large portfolio in oncology. I really feel confident that we'll be able to leverage pembrolizumab to create very important new medicines that will help outcomes and improve lives.
Got it. So like let's start with TROP2 ADC here because you have a massive program going on. We have not seen a ton of data, but you obviously have seen the data. So can you talk a little bit about your confidence level in terms of what you are seeing with the data Kelun has been generating? And what gives you confidence to start this past program?
Absolutely. So the TROP2 ADC from -- that we have, sacituzumab, tirumotecan or SAC-TMT is a unique molecule that was developed in Kelun in China. And one of the things that very much helps us with this is that we have a lot of advanced notice from them in the clinical trials that they've seen there. But it's unique to the extent that it's very potent. It does not have interstitial lung disease issues. And if the dose we've chosen is actually fairly well tolerated and can be used in the more maintenance settings. So if you compare the strategies that we've employed compared to some of the other TROP2 ADCs, they're quite different. We have seen a very exciting early signals that have led us to 14 clinical trials that are available, 9 of which that are publicly available on ct.gov, 9 of which are for new indications where others have not gone and 5 of which are where we have a differentiated approach.
We think that those -- that TMT will be a great workhorse agent for -- to combine with pembrolizumab or any other immune checkpoint inhibitor. And we're also -- going back to the beginning with Kelun, we've already seen they have some pretty amazing results in China. Of course, we have to replicate that in the global setting. But that provides us with a lot of confidence.
Got it. So what's the confidence level that this TROP2 ADC or Kelun TROP3 ADC would be able to differentiate against especially Trodelvy, right? Because obviously, the other one has ILD issue, but to that will be set.
Sure. And Trodelvy has got pretty significant GI tox. But those drugs have been focused on specific lung and breast indications whereas and they've not done very well elsewhere. We have actually a program that's much broader in maintenance settings. And the first indications will be in things like GYN cancers. Caroline mentioned the importance of pembrolizumab in the patient population. And we're -- we think that, that will be an important leverage point for us. I'd also point out that there's a lot of excitement at least for us, in maintenance settings where we've seen, for example, in lung cancer, maintenance chemotherapy, it has been difficult to take and maintenance VEGF has been difficult to take. But with TROP2 ADCs, we think we'll be able to achieve that. So it's a differentiated program. We think we're going to have we've hit the sweet spot in terms of the dose. And with that, I think it's going to be a very important addition.
Got it. Very helpful. Thank you for that. Now let me just talk a little bit about the immune checkpoints, right? I mean, so before we get to VEGF 3D 1, I mean, the question I want to ask is that, we have seen multiple iterations like there was IDO, there was LACC,hey were TIGIT. Like, again, early trial kind of proves that KEYTRUDA is a very good drug. So like if you're trying to compare against it, what is different with VEGF PD-1 versus the prior failures, which made you look into it?
Sure. So just to step back, VEGF inhibitors have been tested pretty extensively in the setting of various cancers. One of the things that's clear is that in some cancers, they have both PFS and OS benefit. So the most important is overall survival benefit, right? Progression-free survival is important, but nothing like overall survival. So that mechanism of action has been important. One of the things that's notable about VEGF inhibitors in general is that they have really good progression-free survival and not so good overall survival.
And so that's been sort of a cloud and a limitation to that field where there's only been a few indications where VEGF inhibitors have been incorporated. We've done an extensive program looking at the combination of VEGF inhibition and PD-1 separately. In those cases, the benefits are really quite limited to renal cell cancer and endometrial cancer, which are really quite vascular tumors. Now come the PD-1 VEGF bispecifics, and there's all sorts of theories around why these drugs might have a specific and special benefit. The results so far that we've seen with ivonescimab and to some extent, with BNT327 has been interesting with respect to progression-free survival. Akeso has noted that there is -- that they have hit in the final analysis and overall survival benefit in one of their studies in EGFR mutant non-small cell lung cancer. But that was only in the final analysis.
So the big question with all of these drugs will you be able to have an OS advantage. And the reason for that is that VEGF inhibition chronically administered is not well tolerated. And there's always been a question about the second agent that is after you progressed, whether you've created a change in the biology that leads to high resistance that's why everyone has been so focused both from an investor point of view and certainly for us, where is the OS benefit? Is there OS benefit? Is that OS benefit convincing? Does it justify some of the talks that they've seen in what specific settings will that be good? So we'll have to see about that.
And you have quite a lot of experience with your own Lenvima experience there. So how can you use those learnings into the development of this program?
A lot. There's a lot of -- so one of the things that is so wonderful about our oncology group is that we have all of the data from hundreds of pembro trials now forming the basis of standard of care around the world. As well as the so-called LEAP program, which is the program that was with lenvatinib. From all of the data, we can model out what are the potential additional issues -- benefits that you have? And what might be the places where you start to see problems with VEGF inhibition. And so we've looked at that carefully. And our development strategy for MK 2010, which is the -- our PD-1 VEGF will be very much focused on settings where we might -- where we think the sweet spot will be. Again, it still remains to be determined whether these ages are going to be just PFS agents but have issues with OS. And that uncertainty, even with that one result still remains. And remember, in China, for a regulatory approval, you need progression-free survival. That's it. In the United States, OS is king, and FDA has insisted on it, especially in settings like frontline metastatic lung cancer. So that's going to be the challenge for the field.
So this brings me to the next question because if you look at the front runners, Summit/BioNTech. They're all going after KEYTRUDA in it's strongest indication that is lung cancer, right first-line lung cancer. Logically makes sense. But at the same time, you are going after KEYTRUDA in an indication where KEYTRUDA is very good. So I mean when you think about -- I mean you will have an advantage of like slightly behind, but at the same time, you can learn from them. Is there a room -- is there a way to think about going after indications where KEYTRUDA works, but it could work better with the VEGF PD1 or how -- you get my question here, right?
I get the question. So the question is whether you can -- is there places where there's room to go with your PD-1 inhibition? And the answer is that's very -- that's one of the reasons why we are so excited that we have the ability to look across therapeutic indications with pembro, not only with lenvatinib, but also recall, we've done some clinical trials with a whole variety of other TKIs based on collaborations that we've done with ADCs, with all sorts for of things. So we can take a good look at where that special advantage might be. the way I consider PD-1 VEGF, there won't be -- it's not going to be another KEYTRUDA. They're just not.
They're going to be specific places with specific potential benefits and specific strata of patients. That's that last bit is the important bit because all comers is going to be -- it's sort of a very high bar to win in a drug like pembrolizumab that is pretty extremely active. So you'll have to look at even in places where KEYTRUDA is somewhat less active where the hazard ratio is a little bit less -- it's still a pretty high bar because oftentimes, it's given with chemo.
Got it. Very helpful. And then so now that you're generating data with your partner in China. So could we expect a TROP2 situation where you start to see the data and then you invest in this program?
We are always -- we give all of our asset stage appropriate investment deserves no more and no less. So we're very, very data-driven. We've had a lot of -- we've had a pretty rapid development program in China. And based on that, we'll come forward with some interesting trial designs. It's also helpful that our partner, Kelun there as well. So we can do a lot of work in that environment and prepare for Phase III should the data support it.
Is there -- like what is your internal understanding about? There are differences in molecules, but is it going to be a PD-1 like situation where ultimately, clinical profiles were different than the molecules as such?
Well, I do think in this particular instance, it's going to be important to look at the ratios. And I'm not -- and this isn't because of some magic, it's just too much VEGF inhibition. If you get bevacizumab VEGF inhibition, that's not so good. They're just not tolerable it. The same is true with some of the other TKIs that are valuable, but only in a specific segment of patients. And so you have to get to that sweet spot. We've always been a believer in PD-1 inhibitors, that PD-L1, but that all will depend on the clinical profile.
Yes. This is what I've heard light. I mean, bevacizumab has a 21 days half-life in bispecific, at least the one which has reported is only 4 days. So that may be one of the reasons why safety is...
But the other piece is if you have to really thread that needle, you wonder. I mean, that's going to be an issue that we have to address. Again, I'm excited about this class, but it has to be in a very data-driven way and OS is king.
And where are you with the cancer vaccine program at this point? I mean we had some interesting Phase II data. So how do you think about development there?
So one of the things that's been exciting about this program is how enthusiastic investigators are. I've always believed that enrollment speed is a not bad indicator of excitement and interest in the mechanism of action and then subsequent commercial success. The area where we've chosen a different development strategy than other cancer vaccine simply because we're interested in early cancers. We're interested in those cancers where patients have a potential curative opportunity where they still have a fairly intact immune system and where we can define the tumor mutations that are going to be most immunogenic.
That said, we are spreading out. We have now looked at some cancers that are very immune responsive but don't have quite as many tumor mutations. And we will be doing some evaluations in the first-line metastatic settings. But more than anything, I think that this -- the Phase III trials that we've put together in the Phase II programs are really focused on early-stage cancers. The readouts will occur in the next couple of years. and with melanoma being first, and we're really excited to see what those results are. In the meantime, Moderna is gearing up to prepare for the good news should it occur, and we'll be ready.
Awesome. So before we go into non-oncology side, so I have some questions for you. So obviously, you have to talk about MFN and tariffs there. So the macro has like how do you see all these macro headwinds at this point coming out from administration? And how can a company like Merck can prepare for something like MFN, tariffs and all those situations.
So from a tariff regard, you've heard Rob talk to the fact that our company is well positioned for what we currently know. We have worked very hard over many years to ensure that we have a diverse footprint for our supply chain. So we have manufacturing here in the United States and outside of the United States, and we've been investing here in the U.S. So as we look at tariffs, and we look at the placement of our products for our current portfolio, we feel that the impact of tariffs are manageable for our business. And as we look at the many launches that we have coming, we're ensuring we have the footprint that enables manufacture here in the U.S. -- the U.S., in Europe, for Europe, in Asia for Asia.
Now clearly, we need to see the final details whether we sit here today, we feel that we are well positioned. With regards to MFN, we and the industry is supportive of the agenda to try and lower our pocket costs here in the United States and ensure that countries around the world are paying their fair share for innovation. Through recent letters we all received from the President has MSN focus in the Medicaid segment, that's a relatively small segment, less than 10% of the revenues for our company here in the U.S. It looks at MFN as you launch products, and we would make sure we're launching products, Cognizant of MFN. And there's some other elements to it. So for us as a company, we remain focused on innovation, focused on our pipeline because if we have products that truly make a difference in the world, we price them commence to it with the benefit that we're offering in to society that will drive growth into the future. And we'll see what the details of MFN may or may not be as the next months and years unfold.
Got it. So the question we get a lot is that, I mean, would the companies consider pricing their ex U.S. trucks differently for the new year launches going forward, considering the MFN and all those issues?
Yes. So we always look to price our products around the world commence through with the value that we're bringing often in certain countries around the world, the processes that they have around the pricing is formulaic in nature. What is helpful with the news flow at the moment is governments understand that if they don't step up, they will be at risk of not having innovations come to those markets. So for our company, we will continue to stand firm in launching our products at a price point that we think is appropriate and commensurate with the value that we're bringing.
Really makes sense. And then the other question is to -- like, I mean, an IRA and the question we get a lot. Now I think with IRA with the big beautiful builds, you probably would have no extension for KEYTRUDA, but the question always is, would subcu be part of because the first guideline kind of suggested it won't be, but now it does look like it would be. But how are you thinking about subcu being part of or not pat of?
So as we talked about earlier, we're really excited about the opportunity to launch a subcutaneous formulation of pembrolizumab. As we look at the IRA, the original was in line with the FDA in that subcutaneous is a new product, two active moieties combined and therefore, would not be subject to IRA at the same time as to KEYTRUDA, the IV portion. The CMS requested responses to a proposal that suggested maybe it would be subject to the at the same time as KEYTRUDA IV is. We obviously gave our responses, and we think that's just bad policy, bad practice.
That said, should KEYTRUDA IV and the subcutaneous formulation of pembrolizumab be under the IRA price setting at the same time, it doesn't fundamentally change the economics for the subcutaneous formulation. And the reason is we are pricing the product to ensure broad access. We'll do that at launch, but we'll also need to ensure we understand the market dynamics as biosimilars enter the market as there's IRA price setting on KEYTRUDA IV so that we do maintain access and maximize really the volume that we will have from KEYTRUDA subcutaneous formulation.
Got it. Very helpful. One more question before we move back to the pipeline side. So like you mentioned like so -- like you announced the plans to reinvest the savings from $3 billion restructuring program here. So it is quite impressive, right? I mean, like, so there's restructuring, but again, at the same time, Merck, at this stage has to invest in pipeline as well, right, and given the exciting opportunities out there. So how should we think about operating expenses growth, specifically R&D in the next few years here?
So as Mohit mentioned, our company announced last quarter a multiyear optimization program. and this multiyear optimization program will drive productivity across every element of our business, from our manufacturing supply chain, the way we conduct our business, sales and marketing, research -- and we're doing that to drive $3 billion of annual cost savings that we will fully reinvest in our future. Our company has one of the strongest pipelines we maybe ever had. And we must fuel that pipeline. So we will be increasing R&D investments because of the breadth of the pipeline.
We have 8 Phase III clinical programs today. We've got these 20-plus products launching. We've got an invisible pipeline, the early stage that will be turning visible. So we will, as Eliav mentioned, appropriately fund R&D grow R&D, we will appropriately fund SG&A as we're bringing these new products to the market, ensuring that we're funding our launches to compete effectively in excel in those launches so that we drive growth for our business into the future.
Got it. Maybe moving back to the non-oncology pipeline here. So windrower, I mean there is launch has been exciting. You have a new set of data and new indications coming with Cadence. Can you help us set the stage here vis-a-vis the PAH, how big the opportunity could be because you will probably go after a subset there. So can you help us understand all that.
So you're talking about the cadence?
Yes.
Yes. Sorry. I didn't quite hear. So you're right, we have a Phase II program in type 2 pulmonary hypertension. Type 2 preliminary hypertension is a diverse set of diseases that are associated where pulmonary hypertension or high blood pressure in the pulmonary arteries is caused by different problems in the heart, in the left heart. And so there are different kinds of diseases that cause that. We have a specific type of disease that roughly is in the size of pulmonary arterial hypertension, although not as well diagnosed. Where there's pressure both before -- in the precapillary and post-capillary.
So it's called CPC HPE, very long name. But in short, people who've got high pressure both in the arterial system and in the venous system. We have hopes that sotatercept will be -- or WINREVAIR, will be active there simply because the biology is not too dissimilar. And when we look at how the -- what the arteries look like, they also have the same kind of proliferation of the vessel wall, the thickness of the vessel wall that happens with PAH. But it's a separate indication. Those data will be available later on this year and we'll be discussing them hopefully at the beginning of next year. And we'll see, based on those data, it'd be a very important new addition to the WINREVAIR indications.
Got it. Very helpful. Another cardiovascular drug, I mean, PCSK9, oral PCSK9. Again, there have been ebbs and flows on this one, like obviously like you have had good data in Phase II. The question is now with the AstraZeneca having no food effect versus food effect. I mean how do you think about this triply evolving there? Because the drug should work, did work.
So look, the most important thing that physicians are looking for is a drug that's really active. First of all, statins have been terrific, but guidelines are pushing people to have ever lower LDL-cholesterol levels. And it's really important because obviously, the benefit of LDL lowering has no basement. There's no bottom where it is no longer important. So you need to have medicines that are available that can be given and really improve on what statins have.
Enlicitide or MK-0616, our PCSK9 oral inhibitor will democratize access to this particular mechanism of action as opposed to the injectables. It will give the ability to take 1 pill once a day. No problem in terms of access barriers and so on. And we think that's going to be a very important addition. And the data from Phase II showed 60%-ish percent reduction in LDL-cholesterol. That's essentially consistent with the injectables. What we've seen in our Phase III program is exciting results that are consistent with what we think we need to create a really important innovation for patients akin to the injectables. We've -- in the Phase III studies, the proof of the pudding, including the largest one, this business around taking it after when you get up in the morning has not been an issue at all. compliance was really terrific. We had no adverse experience. There's no difficulties where patients had a problem.
And when we talk to our scientific leaders and practitioners, this really isn't an issue. What they're interested in is what's the best reduction that you're going to get. And if you look at our Phase II data, a little over 60% reduction in LDL-cholesterol reductions in Lp(a) and time to market is very important. We have 2 years during which we'll be the sole or old PCSK9 inhibitor, we think. And at the same time, we'll also have the best profile, I think, overall.
Got it. Very helpful. Maybe like finishing up the cardiometabolic. So where are you with your GLP-1 at this point?
So we've -- we're very excited about cardiovascular and metabolic space because there's still such a high unmet medical need. And as we look at enlicitide, we're looking at also next generations where we would combine it with different agents that might further improve prevention of atherosclerosis. On the GLP-1 front, you've seen that there's been a lot of expectation setting around what kind of reductions are needed to excite investors. But from my point of view, I think and from our point of view, the fact that you can have an oral medicine really is a big deal.
And so we have a MK4082 that will enter Phase I later on this year. And we think that the differentiation will be and what combinations you're going to put in together. What combinations are going to be tolerable, how many different titration steps you're going to need? Because remember, it's not -- it's not easy for physicians to keep track of all of this, especially if they have to rush every patient through to meet their numbers. And so we'll have to see. But I think oral, in general, in my mind, oral is always better than injectable.
Got it. Very helpful. Moving to the BD a little bit here, and I'll talk about GARDASIL as well. I wanted to know -- 25 minutes we did not talk about GARDASIL. So -- I mean, like we saw -- I think Verona is one deal which is more commercial than the development much been historically much has done more development deals than the commercial deal. So should we think of this as a change in direction a little bit? And I mean, how should we think about deals going forward, given your balance sheet?
Business development remains a key priority for our company. There's so much good science that happens outside of Merck. And our goal is to bring that science into Merck where the sites and value aligns that we can bring benefit to patients as we have with WINREVAIR as we hope to, with our TL1A asset as we will do, we hope, with the Verona asset. As we look at business development, our starting point is around the science. And is this innovation that will address an unmet medical need. We are not bound by what phase of development it is, and we're not actually bound by value, by price.
What we're bound by is innovation that will make a difference that in our hands, we can drive growth and we can drive value for the shareholders. So we will continue to progress on a whole suite of opportunities that span multiple phases of development and also will span multiple TAs as we look, first and foremost, to drive patient benefit, growth for our business as we look out to the end of this decade and beyond.
Got it. So very active. Very helpful. So now moving to GARDASIL. So I think I mean, at this point, I mean, how do you think about -- I mean like is it fair to think that China is probably going to be where it is right now and then growth will come from outside of the China market at this point?
GARDASIL in China is an immaterial revenue driver now for the company, less than 1% of revenues. And as we look to '26 and beyond, we're not counting on GARDASIL in China to drive our growth. We have resources on the ground with our partner to ensure that we are educating people of the continued benefit of HPV protection. But we're not counting on it for our growth. Instead for GARDASIL, we expect growth will continue to come from further penetration of adolescent segment, especially the mail cohort in countries internationally. Growth will come from the mid adult segment. That's the age group 27 through 45%, 50% of infections happen at that age. And so we are working on activating that group, although it takes time. And we will see growth from the low and middle income market. But most importantly, our company's growth is really going to be fueled by all of these new launches and new products that we've got coming through.
Got it. And then, I mean, there is a lot of headlines from the administration about the vaccines and then the necessity. And like, I mean -- so GARDASIL this is -- I mean, there could be potentially ASP chances of less number of doses. So how do you think about that as a possibility? Also, I mean, similarly, like we are hearing something about RSV as well. So like, again, I don't know, like how do you think about this negative out there?
Maybe I'll let Eliav to comment on that.
Right. So first of all, let's take GARDASIL -- the single-dose GARDASIL story is unfolding. We don't know. We don't think that the ACIP is going to consider it in September, a future that we don't know. What we do know is that the food and drug administration has been very, very clear about the evidentiary standards that they need to enable single-dose vaccination. And those standards are much higher than anything that's been generated to date. They're looking for tissue endpoints that is hard endpoints like precancerous lesions in both men and women and in both for short-term but also long-term durability and no loss of efficacy.
So when you think about all of that -- all of those requirements, it's going to be very difficult to be able to get an FDA-approved single dose. There are settings where ACIP may disagree with FDA and choose to make its own recommendations. We don't think that the evidentiary standard is there for this. There's no reason for this to be done. Now more broadly, we can't control and we don't know what ACIP will do. We're very confident that vaccines are a critical part of the health care infrastructure. They save lives that really made a difference over the past 50, 60 years. And some of our vaccines have been out there for quite some time.
Our RSV preventive clesrovimab or ENFLONSIA has been studied extensively. It went through a full FDA review. That was all very clear. went through the ACIP review process. A lot of the data are fully public and we got all the relevant recommendations. So how they CIP will think things through in September? We don't know. But we're very confident that the efficacy and safety of and Polonia of GARDASIL of all of our vaccines. And frankly, the vaccines of all the manufacturers that are part of the immunization schedule. These vaccines are incredibly well tested. They are incredibly valuable there's enormous post-marketing data. And I think that at the end of the day, professional societies and physicians who work with parents, will understand that. And we hope that, that will continue to reinforce vaccines.
Awesome. So my last question. My last question is always the same. Fast forward 1 year 2026 September. I hope you are here. I hope I'm here. So if I ask you the question 1 year down the line, that what would make you look back and say this was a good year for us.
So for me, it starts with our pipeline. You will have seen the progress in our pipeline as we really are moving as I open today to a much more diverse set of growth drivers that will make a difference in the world. So seeing positive readouts on all of these assets that we have coming through and seeing excellence in our launches. That's what it looks like for me, with continued augmentation from business development.
Again, I look forward to the readouts of a lot of really exciting results. We haven't talked much about our HIV pipeline, but there's going to be some really important readouts there. Same move with some of our oncology products. And I look forward to, hopefully, 1 year from today where we see that there is stability in thinking around vaccination schedules and around how the enormous value that these vaccines have brought. And I'm really excited also to -- we'll be excited to showcase our new oncology pipeline as well. So lots and lots of stuff going on. We're going to have a lot of readouts, and I'm really looking forward to a good year.
Great. On that high note, thank you very much.
Thank you, Mohit.
thank you.
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Merck & Co. — Wells Fargo 20th Annual Healthcare Conference 2025
Merck & Co. — Wells Fargo 20th Annual Healthcare Conference 2025
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Merck positioniert sich als diversifizierter Wachstumswert mit ~20 kommenden Produkten und dem Ziel von >$50 Mrd Umsatz bis Mitte der 2030er. Fokus auf erfolgreiche Launches, Pipeline-Readouts und gezielte Zukäufe (Verona). Kurzfristig bleibt der Verlust der Exklusivität (Loss of exclusivity, LOE) von KEYTRUDA ein relevantes Risiko.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Subcutan: KEYTRUDA subcutane Formulierung soll 30–40% Adoption innerhalb 18–24 Monaten erreichen; Pricing und fehlender permanenter J‑Code (Medicare-Abrechnungs-Code für injizierbare/infundierte Medikamente) in ersten Monaten als Headwind eingestuft.
- TROP2: Erwerb der Kelun-TROP2-ADC-Plattform: 14 geplante Trials, breit angelegte Maintenance-Strategie und Fokus auf bessere Tolerabilität vs. Mitbewerber (z. B. geringeres ILD‑Risiko).
- Cardio/Onko: Oraler PCSK9 (enlicitide) zeigt ~60% LDL‑Senkung in Phase II; PD‑1/VEGF‑Bispezifikum (MK‑2010) wird gezielt in Indikationen mit möglichem OS‑Vorteil entwickelt.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Readouts: Management betonte frische Phase‑III‑Daten (u.a. oral PCSK9) und bevorstehende Readouts in Ophthalmologie, HIV und Impfstoff‑Programmen (inkl. Phase‑III in Melanom). Keine explizite Anpassung der Finanz‑Guidance kommuniziert.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- KEYTRUDA: Kritische Fragen zu Wachstumspfaden nach LOE; Subcutan‑Adoption hängt von Erstattung (J‑Code) und Preisgestaltung ab.
- PD‑1/VEGF: Analysten hoben die zentrale Frage hervor, ob Bispezifika echten Overall‑Survival (OS)‑Vorteil bringen können; Regulierung (China vs. USA) und Verträglichkeit sind entscheidend.
- TROP2 & Daten: Nachfragen zur Replizierbarkeit der China‑Daten von Kelun und zur Differenzierung gegenüber Trodelvy (breitere Indikationen, besseres Safety‑Profil).
- Politik & Preise: MFN/IRA‑Risiken (Most Favored Nation, Inflation Reduction Act) und mögliche Preis-/Launch‑Anpassungen wurden thematisiert; Management betont Vorbereitung, aber Unsicherheit bleibt.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Langfristig ist Merck stark pipeline‑getrieben und will $3 Mrd Einsparungen in R&D reinvestieren; kurzfristig dominieren Ausführungsrisiken (Launch‑execution, J‑Code/Erstattung, OS‑Beweise bei neuen Klassen) und regulatorische Unsicherheiten. Investoren sollten Key‑Readouts und Erstattungsentscheidungen in den nächsten 12–24 Monaten genau beobachten.
Merck & Co. — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Merck & Company, Inc. Rahway, New Jersey U.S.A Q2 Sales and Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Peter Dannenbaum, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Thank you, Shirley, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Second Quarter 2025 Conference Call for Merck & Company Inc. Rahway, New Jersey U.S.A. Speaking on today's call will be Rob Davis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Caroline Litchfield, Chief Financial Officer; and Dr. Dean Lee, President of Research Labs.
Before we get started, I'd like to point out that we have items in our GAAP results such as acquisition-related charges, restructuring costs and certain other items that we have excluded from our non-GAAP results. There is a reconciliation in our press release.
I will also remind you that some of the statements that we make today may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are made based on the current beliefs of our company's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. If our underlying assumptions prove inaccurate or uncertainties materialize, actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.
Our SEC filings, including Item 1A in the 2024 10-K, identify certain risk factors and cautionary statements that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from those projected in any of our forward-looking statements made this morning. Merck & Company Inc. Rahway, New Jersey U.S.A undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements. During today's call, slide presentation will accompany our speakers' prepared remarks. These slides, along with the earnings release, today's prepared remarks and our SEC filings are all posted to the Investor Relations section of our company's website.
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Rob.
Thank you, Peter. Good morning, and thank you for joining today's call. We continue to make meaningful progress in delivering our important medicines and vaccines to patients and customers while advancing our innovative pipeline. Over the past few months, we've shared a steady cadence of updates that highlight our strong clinical momentum, and our growth is increasingly benefiting from new product launches now underway with more to come.
We've also taken additional steps to augment our pipeline. Our recently announced acquisition of Verona Pharma is another example of acting decisively when science and value align. And moving with urgency to achieve our business development objectives. I have increasing confidence that our science-driven strategy will continue to generate long-term value for shareholders and for all of our stakeholders.
Turning to our second quarter results. We delivered performance in line with our expectations with revenue of $15.8 billion. Results reflect strength across oncology and animal health as well as increasing contributions from our new product launches with WINREVAIR achieving $1 billion of cumulative sales and just over a year since approval. We expect to return to growth in the second half of 2025 and remain confident in our outlook for the remainder of the year. I'm proud of the tangible progress we're making in expanding and advancing our research program across key therapeutic areas.
We're now conducting more than 80 Phase III studies across a range of therapeutic areas. And we're increasingly seeing the potential we've long spoken about validated with positive clinical trial results registrational filings and new product launches. These proof points provide me with growing confidence that we're on track to achieve our ambitions.
Moving to some notable recent news. We announced encouraging top line results from the first 2 Phase III trials evaluating elicitide, our oral PCSK9 inhibitor for the treatment of hyperlipidemia and for WINREVAIR based on the HYPERION study for patients recently diagnosed with PAH. On the regulatory front, the FDA approved and the ACIP recommended [ inflaunzia ] for the prevention of RSV in infants younger than 8 months of age who are born during or entering their first RSV season. We're well prepared to support families ahead of the upcoming season.
Additionally, the FDA has accepted our supplemental BLA for WINREVAIR in PAH and a new drug application for the fixed-dose combination of doravirine and ezlotivir for the treatment of HIV. At the IAS conference earlier this month, we highlighted new findings from our promising HIV pipeline, and we're excited about MK-8527 which has the potential to be the first once-monthly pill for HIV prevention. We also hosted an investor event to showcase our HIV programs and the important commercial opportunity they represent.
Our oncology pipeline continues to break new ground. We marked the tenth earlier stage approval for KEYTRUDA and at ASCO, presented encouraging data across multiple novel candidates further reinforcing the potential of our portfolio to help even more patients with cancer. Finally, the acquisition of Verona Pharma brings us [indiscernible] there, a novel first-in-class treatment for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or COPD, that complements our growing cardiopulmonary program and reflects our commitment to transformative science in areas of significant unmet need. Upon closing in the fourth quarter, we'll leverage our commercial capabilities to accelerate [ Otabera's ] successful launch and look forward to welcoming the Verona Pharma team to our company.
Overall, we are encouraged by our continued progress. Each of these impactful milestones is an important building block as we move toward a more diversified future. As I've said before, our company is entering a period of rapid transformation, which will be marked by meaningful impact on patients and the practice of medicine, and we couldn't be more excited about our future. Over the past several years, we've built the largest and most diverse pipeline in our company's recent history. We have over 20 new and potential future growth drivers, including the successful recent launches of WINREVAIR and [ cavaxo ].
We also have numerous novel late-phase compounds with potential for significant patient benefit and blockbuster commercial opportunity. candidates such as emlicitide, [ elisatbart ], [ faktmt ] and MK-3000, to name a few, represent potentially profound scientific advances, exactly the types of innovations that Merck is known for. We're committed to fully investing behind our pipeline given the tremendous opportunities we see, and we'll continue to do so with sharp focus and discipline for the benefit of the patients we serve.
Today, we announced a multiyear optimization initiative, which will redirect investment and resources for more mature areas of our business to our burgeoning array of new growth drivers, further enable the transformation of our portfolio and drive our next chapter of productive innovation-driven growth. Caroline will provide more detail on this in just a moment. In summary, we're leveraging our scientific expertise to deliver the next wave of innovation that can save and improve lives around the world.
My confidence in our ability to successfully navigate the KEYTRUDA LOE period increases with each new launch, data readout and business development transactions. I continue to see the LOE as more of a hill than a cliff, and I'm confident in our ability to grow over the long term. I want to thank our talented and dedicated global team for their hard work and commitment to delivering value for patients, shareholders and for all of our stakeholders.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Caroline.
Thank you, Rob. Good morning. As Rob noted, second quarter performance was in line with our expectations I am pleased to again report that the fundamentals of our business remains strong with continued robust global demand for our diverse innovative portfolio of human and animal health products. Our commercial and operational execution enables us to generate value in the short term while we invest in the next generation of innovation and advance our pipeline for the long term. to deliver value for all stakeholders.
Now turning to our second quarter results. Total company revenues were $15.8 billion, a decrease of 2%, both nominally and excluding the impact of foreign exchange. As expected, results were impacted by a decline in sales of GARDASIL in China of approximately $1.3 billion, reducing growth by 9 percentage points. Excluding these sales, global growth was 7%, primarily driven by strength in oncology and Animal Health as well as new products, WINREVAIR and [indiscernible] which are each up to an outstanding start. The following revenue comments will be on an ex exchange basis.
In oncology, sales of KEYTRUDA increased 9% to $8 billion with growth in both U.S. and international markets, driven by robust demand from metastatic indications and increased uptake in earlier-stage cancers. Usage in tumors predominantly affecting women, including those with starting breast, cervical and endometrial cancers was a key contributor to growth. In addition, we saw increased use of KEYTRUDA in combination with [indiscernible] in first-line locally advanced urothelial cancer. We also received positive feedback from health care providers following the recent launch of a treatment regimen with KEYTRUDA for certain patients with resectable locally advanced head and neck cancer based on KEYNOTE 689.
This is the first perioperative anti-PD1 regimen approved for treatment of patients with this disease. Our broader oncology portfolio achieved another quarter of strong growth. Of note, weired sales increased 29% to $162 million predominantly driven by increased use in certain patients with previously treated advanced renal cell carcinoma in the U.S. In vaccines, GARDASIL sales were $1.1 billion, a decrease of 55%, driven primarily by China. Excluding China, sales declined 4% due to lower sales in Japan, reflecting the expiration of reimbursement for the catch-up cohort and timing of public sector purchases in certain international markets. Sales growth of 2% in the U.S. was attributable to price and higher demand, partially offset by CDC purchasing patterns.
In [ New Macoco ], capvaxive sales were $129 million, driven by demand from both retail pharmacies and nonretail customers, including integrated delivery networks and clinics. We remain well positioned to help protect more adults from invasive pneumococcal disease and drive continued growth moving forward. [indiscernible] sales increased 20%. In the U.S., growth benefited by approximately $60 million from CDC stockpile activity, partially offset by competitive pressures. The benefit to [ Vexavance ] was offset by a drawdown of CDC stockpile inventory for [ RotaTeq ] and Farafex, resulting in a net neutral transaction.
Outside the U.S. growth in certain international markets was offset by a competitor preferential recommendation in Japan. Following the recent FDA approval and ACIP recommendation, we are excited to have started taking orders for ENFLONSIA, our monoclonal antibody for the prevention of RSV lower respiratory tract disease in infants entering their first RSV season. ENFLONSIA's compelling clinical data and operational simplicity make it an important option for parents and providers. We have made great progress in achieving the milestones necessary to help ensure a successful launch and are well positioned to help protect infants from RSV lower respiratory tract disease.
In cardiovascular, WINREVAIR continued its strong momentum with global sales of $336 million. As Rob noted, in just 15 months since launch, cumulative net sales of WINREVAIR have already exceeded $1 billion. This achievement is a testament to both the impact WINREVAIR had for patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension and our ability to pay a leading-edge science with execution excellence even in disease areas that are new to us. In the U.S., more than 1,600 new patients received a prescription during the quarter. We are continuing to see a steady increase in the percentage of new prescriptions for patients with background therapies do not include a prostacyclin.
Outside the U.S., we continue to progress with approvals and reimbursement, including in Japan, where we expect a launch later in the third quarter. Overall, the ongoing launch of WINREVAIR continues to meet our high expectations, and we look forward to positively impacting the lives of more patients with PAH. Our Animal Health business delivered very strong growth, with sales increasing 11%. Livestock growth reflects higher demand across all species as well as sales from the [ ACAS ] portfolio acquired from Elanco. Companion animal sales growth reflects price. Growth in both segments also benefited from improved supply.
I will now walk you through the remainder of our P&L and my comments will be on a non-GAAP basis. Gross margin was 82.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points driven by favorable product mix. Operating expenses increased to $6.6 billion including a $200 million charge related to the license agreement with [ Hanre ]. Excluding this charge, operating expenses grew 4%, reflecting disciplined investments in support of our robust early and late phase pipeline as well as key growth drivers. Other expense was $54 million. Our tax rate was 15%. Taken together, earnings per share were $2.13.
Turning to our outlook. As Rob noted, our company is rapidly moving to a future with a diversified set of growth drivers, each with the potential to address important unmet patient needs. We have a compelling array of novel pipeline candidates as a result of our steadfast commitment to innovation and our long-standing efforts to invest with discipline. To ensure we are well positioned to maximize the many opportunities in front of us, we have announced a multiyear optimization program. This portfolio management program will enable us to fully reinvest $3 billion of cost savings from lower growth areas of our business to higher potential areas in order to have maximum impact.
It will also allow us to leverage technological advancements to enable productivity and streamline our operations. Taken together, our overall investment will continue to increase, a reflection of the many compelling opportunities we have. We are confident these actions will position us to deliver value for patients customers and shareholders as well as drive long-term growth.
Now turning to our 2025 non-GAAP guidance. We expect full year revenue to be between $64.3 billion and $65.3 billion. This range represents growth of 1% to 2%, and excluding a negative impact from foreign exchange of approximately 0.5% using mid-July rates. Our gross margin assumption remains approximately 82%. Our guidance of $200 million of costs related to the impact of tariffs is unchanged, pending the outcome of additional potential government actions. Operating expenses are now assumed to be between $25.6 billion and $26.4 billion. This range continues to include the $300 million milestone to [ Lenava ] for the tech transfer that was completed earlier this month. This guidance does not assume the proposed acquisition of Verona or additional significant potential business development transactions.
Other expense is expected to be between $300 million and $400 million. We now assume a full year tax rate between 15% and 16%. We assume approximately 2.51 billion shares outstanding. Taken together, our EPS guidance is $8.87 to $8.97. This range includes a negative impact from foreign exchange of approximately $0.15 using mid-July rates. As you consider your models, there are a few items to keep in mind. We remain confident in the outlook for our launch products and continued growth across oncology and Animal Health as well as our return to growth in the second half of the year.
In China, GARDASIL channel inventories remain elevated and demand continues to be soft. As a result, we will not resume shipments to China through at least the end of this year. As we look to the balance of the year for GARDASIL, Japan will be a more significant headwind to growth in the second half of the year as we lap the increase in vaccinations from the catch-up cohort in 2024. Overall, we expect full year growth for GARDASIL, excluding China. Next, we expect other revenue to be significantly lower in the second half of the year. While we actively manage the impact from foreign exchange through our revenue hedging program, based on mid-July rate, we expect to see a negative impact from our hedges, which is reflected in other revenue. Finally, we expect operating expenses to be roughly evenly split between the third and fourth quarters, excluding business development expenses.
Now turning to capital allocation. where our strategy remains unchanged. We will prioritize investments in our business to drive near and long-term growth. We will continue to invest in our innovative pipeline including the initiation of many new late-stage clinical trials across multiple novel candidates, each of which has the potential to meaningfully address important unmet medical needs. We remain committed to our dividend with the goal of increasing it over time. Business development remains a high priority as evidenced by our acquisition of Verona Pharma which we expect to finance through a combination of cash on hand, commercial paper and new debt issuance. We maintain the ability within our strong investment-grade credit rating to pursue additional science-driven value-enhancing transactions going forward. We continued our pace of share repurchases with approximately $1.3 billion in the quarter. We expect to maintain a similar level of repurchases in each of the third and fourth quarters of 2025, given our strong balance sheet.
To conclude, we are confident in the outlook of our business driven by global demand for our innovative in-line portfolio and launches. We maintain our steadfast commitment to bringing forward medically significant innovations that will enable us to deliver value to patients, customers and shareholders well into the future.
With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to Dean.
Thank you, Caroline. Good morning, everyone. In the second quarter, we continued to see strong momentum across the pipeline. Today, I will cover updates from our cardiopulmonary, infectious diseases, HIV and oncology programs. First, on the proposed acquisition of Verona Pharma. Building on what Rob noted earlier, we have been following the strong progress of the Verona team for a number of years. [ Octavier ] is the first novel mechanism for the inhaled maintenance treatment of COPD in more than 2 decades. It is a dual inhibitor of phosphodiesterase and for with bronchodilatory and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory properties. As such, it is an important maintenance therapy option for patients who are persistently symptomatic.
[ Octavier ] is used to improve symptoms of COPD for better breathing and to reduce the number of Flarx. Phase III trials that evaluated [ Octavier ] as monotherapy or with background therapies in patients with moderate to severe symptomatic COPD demonstrated clinically meaningful improvement in lung function. These results provided strong validation that culminated in an FDA approval in June of 2024. We are eager to complete the acquisition and work with the Verona team advancing ongoing work in bronchiectasis and evaluate utility in additional indications, combination therapies and alternative formulations.
Now to focus on WINREVAIR. Evidence continues to accumulate for WINREVAIR's strong clinical benefit across a broad spectrum of patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension. The Phase III HYPERION trial evaluating WINREVAIR in adults recently diagnosed with PAH, was stopped early based on review of available data from the program. Despite the early stoppage Positive top line results announced last month shows that adding Wierevir on top of background therapy significantly reduced the risk of clinical worsening events compared to background therapy alone. Detailed findings will be presented at a scientific congress later this year. Additionally, the FDA granted priority review for a supplemental biologics license application to update the label for WINREVAIR based on data from the Phase III ZENITH trial instead of PDUFA date of October 25.
As a reminder, ZENITH was the first positive trial in PAH with a primary endpoint comprised entirely of major outcome measures and the first Phase III study in PAH to be stopped early for overwhelming efficacy. Caroline mentioned, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare in Japan has recently granted approval for WINREVAIR.
Moving to enlicitide. Positive top line results were announced from the Phase III core REIT heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia and core reef add-on clinical trials for enlicitide, our investigational once-daily oral PCSK9 inhibitor for the treatment of adults with hyperlipidemia on lipid-lowering therapies, including at least the statin. Of note, the CDC estimates that in the United States, more than 1 million people have heterosis familial hypercholesterolemia and approximately 86 million adults older than 20 have high cholesterol. Both trials met their primary and all key secondary endpoints, demonstrating statistically significant and clinically meaningful reductions in LDL cholesterol for patients receiving elicited versus placebo. Detailed findings will be presented at future medical meetings.
Finally, we are eagerly awaiting results from the core reef lipids Phase III trial in the broader hyperlipidemia population, and I am pleased to report that we recently completed enrollment for the Phase III core outcomes trial. Next, the infectious disease. Last month, the FDA approved ENFLOSIA, our long-acting monoclonal antibody for the prevention of respiratory sensitiavirus lower respiratory tract disease in infants born during or entering to first RSV season. ENFLONSIA is the first and only option designed to protect infants with the same dose regardless of weight.
The CDC's Advisory Committee on immunization practices, subsequently voted to recommend ENFLONSIA for use in infants younger than 8 months of age for their first RSV season and include this new option in the vaccines for children's program, an important step in ensuring access. This vote is provisional and we await confirmation. In vaccines, we initiated the first Phase III clinical trial for our investigational quadrivalent dengue vaccine D181. The Mobilize 1 study will evaluate the safety, immunogenicity and efficacy of a single dose of V181 for the prevention of dengue disease caused by any of the 4 dengue virus serotypes, regardless of prior exposure. According to the World Health Organization, about half of the world's population is now at risk of dengue with an estimated 100 million to 400 million infections occurring each year.
Turning to HIV. Earlier this month, we hosted an investor event coinciding with the International Ag Society Conference on HIV sign. At the conference, we presented findings from a Phase II study of MK-8527, a novel NRTTI candidate being evaluated as an oral option for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis. The data support the targeted monthly dosing schedule of MK-8527 and which has the potential to enable rapid onset of protection within 1 hour of intake without the need for a loading dose. These findings support the initiation of 2 Phase III studies one, to evaluate the safety and efficacy of MK-8527 among people at greater likelihood of HIV 1 exposure, expressive 11 and a separate study in women and adolescent girls expressive can in collaboration with the Gates Foundation.
We believe MK-8527 has the potential to be an important new option for people at high risk for HIV. At IAS, we also presented data for the combination of Vezlotivir, an investigation of NRTTI anchor therapy and ulaniverine, an investigational RTI being evaluated as a potential once-weekly regimen for the treatment of adults living with HIV. The Phase II study in adults with suppress HIV is ongoing. Finally, the FDA accepted for review the new drug application for the fixed dose combination of doravirine and evloterver, an investigation of once-daily oral 2-drug regimen for the treatment of adults living with HIV I that is very logically suppressed on antiretroviral therapy. The target action date is April 28, 2026.
Moving to oncology. During last month's investor event at ASCO, we showcased how we have leveraged our foundational position with KEYTRUDA to create a diverse pipeline by successfully executing on our oncology strategy and advancing key pipeline candidates. We are uniquely positioned to advance cancer care with a broad, differentiated portfolio and pipeline spanning immuno-oncology, precision medicine and tissue targeting. The strategic ambition is to develop leading assets in all 3 segments so that in a world of combination therapies, our pipeline will be optimally positioned to continue to change the practice of clinical oncology.
With regards to tissue targeting, through our collaboration with Daiichi Sankyo, we now have 3 Phase III trials evaluating infinitumab, deruxtecan, IDI esophagE-01 and in unresectable advanced or metastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, ID prostate 01 in metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer and ID8 Lung-02 in relapsed small cell lung cancer. KEYTRUDA continues to generate compelling data and regulatory approvals. We recently received FDA approval for its use as part of a perioperative treatment regimen for certain patients with resectable locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma based on the KEYNOTE 689 study.
This marks the 42nd indication and the tenth earlier-stage approval for a KEYTRUDA-based regimen. Earlier intervention has the potential to improve outcomes and reduce the burden of disease in this patient population. In ovarian cancer, positive progression-free survival and overall survival results for KEYTRUDA plus chemotherapy with or without bevacizumab were announced in certain patients based on the Phase III KEYNOTE V96 study. This is the first immune checkpoint inhibitor-based regimen to demonstrate a statistically significant overall survival benefit in ovarian cancer. We plan to present the results at an upcoming medical meeting.
And finally, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare in Japan, granted approval for [indiscernible] for certain patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma. As we look to the second half of this year, we anticipate multiple important milestones. In oncology, the upcoming PDUFA date for subcutaneous pembrolizumab on September 23. In the cardiopulmonary space for Wind River, the October 25 PDUFA date for the FDA label update based on the Phase III ZENITH trial, presentation of detailed findings from the HYPERION study and the primary completion date in September of the Phase II CADENCE study in pulmonary hypertension due to left heart disease. For elicitide, begin presenting the detailed results of Phase III trials from the core reef development program at major cardiovascular conferences. And finally, the closing of the Verona Pharma acquisition in the fourth quarter. I look forward to providing further updates on our progress.
And now I turn the call back to Peter.
Thank you, Dean. Shirley, we're ready to begin Q&A now. We request that analysts limit themselves to 1 question today in order to get to as many questioners as possible. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] I think our first question comes from Daina Graybosch with Leerink Partners.
2. Question Answer
I wonder if you could help us understand cadence that you said has a September primary completion date. Specifically, can you help us put the outcomes in context? I think you have a couple primary outcomes or primary and first secondary PVR and a reduction or an improvement in 6-minute loss distance. What's your bar for success on both of those. And if you replicate those outcomes in Phase III, can they support registration in this FEP indication? Or will you have to show benefit on a hard cardiovascular or a mortality outcome as well?
Daina, thank you very much. This is Dean. As you're talking about WINREVAIR, we have a lot of data in pulmonary artery hypertension. The data that we're exploring outside of pulmonary artery hypertension is in cadence, and it is in a select population with heart failure it's generally 1 that has hemodynamics that's a little bit more reminiscent of PAH than other diseases -- and so we're really interested to study whether we can move out of PAH but focus on those who have heart failure and have a PH physiology. In terms of the outcomes, you're right, it's PVR at 6 minutes. I would say probably the most important thing just because this is a patient population that's very different than a PAH population. The most important signal for me is really the PVR. I think the 6-minute walk will be also important. But to me, it's whether or not we can make a substantial impact on in this patient population that is not PAH. In terms of this question of whether or not 1 would need to do a Phase III. I would say that we'll have to see the data. But my expectation in front of the data is, I would imagine that the FDA would be interested in a Phase III trial to really demonstrate the effectiveness of this treatment in this broader patient population.
Our next question comes from Vamil Divan with Guggenheim Securities.
Maybe I'll just stick with WINREVAIR. One is actually a follow-up to the earlier question and then 1 question of myself. So just following up on the cadence discussion, I don't know if Dean or if someone could just maybe quantify the patient population as you mentioned patients maybe hemodynamically a little more. skewed all we've seen on the pay side, but just a sense of the market size, it would be helpful because we've been getting a lot of questions on how to think about the opportunity. But my other question, my main question is actually the ex U.S. uptake of unnerve there's just sort of a little bit of growth in the second quarter. I know you're just kind of getting going with the launch ex U.S. I'm curious just as a relatively expensive product, recent as launch because your ex U.S. sort of strategy at all evolved given sort of the threat of most aeration pricing? Are you thinking differently about what sort of pricing you might accept for whenever ex U.S. or which markets you may be targeting relative to what you were thinking a year or 2 ago? And just any sense of the sort of broader ex U.S. market opportunity in PAH specifically for wind would be helpful.
Yes. I'll take the science question. This is Dean. In relationship to patients who have left car failure, Oftentimes, they have pulmonary hypertension and not pulmonary arterial hypertension, and it's due to increased pressures in the left heart, often measured by a wedge pressure that then backs up to the pulmonary artery. That's not the patient population that we're most interested in. We're most interested in the patient population who has heart failure and their pulmonary hypertension is elevated at a rate or a degree that is out of proportion to what their left heart pressures are. So in some sense, when I say a pulmonary arterial hypertension-like physiology, that's what this patient population is, and that's why we chose that.
In terms of the dimension -- how to dimension that, I would just say that to a large degree, that dimension is underdiagnosed in cardiology because there's no treatment for it. In those patients, there's very limited numbers. I would say that if you look at estimates in the absence of any treatment for these patients, I think they're going to be in the range of what in the range of pulmonary arterial hypertension in some factor maybe above that. But I do believe that unlike pulmonary arterial hypertension, where there's very good epidemiology, here in this physiology, I don't know that the epidemiology is so certain because there hasn't been a treatment. And when oftentimes, there's not a treatment, the epidemiology, one has to be a little bit thoughtful about.
And Vamil, this is Rob. As it relates to the ex U.S. business, overall, to your point, it is still very early in the launch. And really, we're going to really see most of the reimbursements coming in the second half of this year, and that's when you're really going to see growth. But if you look at what happened in the quarter, we're actually seeing contracting in the markets where we are currently marketing the drug like Germany. It's off to a good start. What you saw from the revenues, actually, there was a pricing adjustment in the quarter that, that's why it appeared flat. But as we look forward, we do continue to see a strong opportunity for growth. And just to contextualize, you might recall, this is about 90,000 patients worldwide roughly half of that is the United States. The other half is Europe in Japan. And we expect -- we, I think, recently got approval in Japan. So that's coming in the back half of the year. and then we expect broader reimbursement to Europe. So as we sit here today, it's early, but I would say it's on track.
Our next question comes from Chris Shaw with JPMorgan.
I just wanted to dig into the $3 billion restructuring announcement. I know you mentioned in the press release you're planning to fully reinvest that. But just when we balance what seems like a large ramp in the pipeline and the Phase III programs over the next few years against this cost initiative. Can you just help us a little bit of how we should think about either operating margins or absolute OpEx growth trending in the next few years? I'm just trying to get my hands around like what that looks like in any -- just qualitative sense you can provide?
Yes, I appreciate that, Chris. Maybe I'll give a high-level answer, and then Caroline can fill in some of the details. If you look at what this is about, this is as we sit here today and look at really the impressive opportunity we have with these 20-plus launches, we will and we need to fully fund behind those launches. We need to continue and we will fully fund behind our Phase III pipeline on an R&D basis, to be able to do that and to continue to -- so we will be growing our spend over time, but we want to do it productively and efficiently. And that's why we're looking to reallocate money from and resources from the slower growth areas of the business to fully fund into the fast-growing areas of our business. So really, this $3 billion that we've referred to is a reallocation within our portfolio from the slow-growing areas to the faster-growing areas with continued expectation that you're going to see overall growth in spend, hopefully, though, at a more productive level than you would have otherwise seen. And with those investments, as I said, targeted to our pipeline, making sure we fully fund the Phase IIIs and to preparing for the commercial launch. But maybe Caroline can build out some details.
Yes. So I think you've covered the headline as well, Rob. In terms of this $3 billion saving opportunity, that will come through productivity across our enterprise. It will impact the R&D line, SG&A as well as cost of goods. That said, we will reinvest all of that $3 billion plus further investments, especially in R&D, given the strength of our pipeline as well as in SG&A over time as we launch the new products and look to excel in the marketplace with those launches in order to drive long-term growth for our company.
The question comes from Asad Haider with Goldman Sachs.
3-parter on GARDASIL. First, on GARDASIL U.S., you noted positive price and demand offset by CDC purchasing recognizing that CDC purchasing dynamics are always lumpy. They've also been a significant driver over the year. So maybe just speak to your level of confidence on the demand dynamics from that channel in the current environment, and then maybe also just as it relates to the potential for ACIP recommendation towards lower gas of doses in the U.S. Can you just update us on how you're thinking about the range of outcomes into the ACIP meeting this fall -- and then finally, on China, GARDASIL Carolina, I think you said node shipments through at least the end of this year. So any early thoughts on how you're thinking about 2026 would be helpful.
So this is Dean. I guess I'll take the ACIP question first, and then I'll leave the other questions to Caroline and Rob. I can't speculate what the ACIP may do I just want to emphasize how confident we are in the safety and efficacy of G9 GARDASIL 9. But I would emphasize that I think 1 of the things that has become clear to the ACIP is that there is a clear disparity between the stringent clinical requirements outlined by the FDA versus the ACIP proposals that's there. And the FDA has been very clear on the high evidentiary standard required for a single dose. I mean, they keep emphasizing to us efficacy against disease endpoints, not just infections, data in males and females. And this is something that's emphasized to us because we get reminded that HPV-related cancers in males is actually I think now trending higher than cervical cancer in females. They have a very high statistical bar in a long-term they want very long-term viability of protection. In terms of the ACIP, there's no agenda posted for the August, September and October. However, this was sort of a topic that got postponed. So we imagine that there will be discussion about it. but we are very clear on the safety and efficacy and the clear disparity between the FDA's high evidentiary standard and any data to date in relationship to a single dose.
And then in terms of the commercial, in the United States, we saw strong growth driven by price and demand, but that was mostly offset by the CDC channel, where there was a buy down in the second quarter this year greater than what we had seen in the second quarter of 2024. As we look at our opportunities for GARDASIL, we do expect growth in 2025 and beyond. But that does not contemplate any change in the dosing schedule for the United States. And we'll need to see what happens as the ACIP continue those discussions. As it pertains to China, as noted in the prepared remarks, demand remains soft and inventory remains elevated. We are on the ground doing all we can to activate demand, both with females as well as now with males. That said, we will not ship further product this year, and we will assess at the year-end on what the appropriate schedule should be for 2026. I should note, GARDASIL China represents a fraction of our company now, much less than 1%. We're not counting on it for growth. we are counting on our new products, the excellent execution we have in our existing products to drive growth for our company in the second half of this year and into the future.
Next question comes from Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.
As we think about business development going forward, I'd love if you could expand on your approach to diligence in assets between Chinese and Western companies. I'm specifically asking in context of the recent Barona acquisition versus a recent collaboration announcement by a competitor for Chinese PDE3/4 inhibitor.
Well, this is Dean. We have a very high standard, whether it's from China or from the United States. But in specific relationship to your question about Verona I mean, Verona is a company we have followed at least for 5 years. It's -- we were always intrigued by it because they had a dual inhibitor of PDE3 and 4 with the possibility of bronchodilatory and nonsteroid or anti-inflammatory properties. And as we watched it, we had recognized that it could be the first novel mechanism, and it is now the first novel mechanism to get approved for inhalation for COPD. And so for us, the fact that it's approved within the United States and the fact that we've talked to patients and physicians who use it we believe that it lays a beachhead or groundwork for this field and our ability to move that quickly with Verona is an advantage to us, especially when we're a company who is revisiting our roots in cardiopulmonary cardiometabolic. And we believe that there are other innovations around this pathway that will be important. But having that first-mover advantage within the United States and more broadly is really important -- when we looked at other assets within this space, specifically related to China, they were not in that position of a first-mover advantage, which we thought was critical for Merck to enter the field.
Our next question comes from Umer Raffat with Evercore.
I feel like there's been a ton of interest in the valuation paid for your Chinese partner, Lenova on the PD-1 VEGF. And my question is, Considering the ongoing Phase I is an open-label study, can we reasonably assume everything is in fact on track and you are still in a position to start a potentially registration Phase II like a KEYNOTE-21G in the next few months?
Yes. So this is Dean. In relationship to PD-1, VEGF, you're exactly right. We've been interested in the dual signaling in this space for some time. I would actually mark 2018 as our interest in relationship to our broad collaboration with our collaborators, [ Aisa ]. In relationship to the Lenava program itself, everything is going exactly as planned. Now clearly, we're keeping an eye on the external environment and external data. But as related to Lenava program moving forward, that is going exactly as planned as we -- according to the plan, when we initiated the partnership with Lenava.
Next question comes from Akash Tewari with Jefferies.
So we're seeing an increase in patient adds for WINREVAIR after some modest decreases over the last few quarters. what's the right cadence when you think about this going forward, not only for the rest of 2025, but really 2026 and onwards. Now that you have the Hyperion and ZENITH results. And really, what's your progress in terms of progressing venrivir into earlier lines of setting, are you starting to see doctors adopt this medication more aggressively? And then maybe if I could just sneak in 1 more question. On the Hanz GLP1 asset, can you confirm that, that drug has actually moved into the clinic?
Yes. Maybe I'll start, and Caroline can add as well. So I appreciate the question on WINREVAIR. As we look, we've been pretty consistently adding 400 to 500 patients per month. So I wouldn't read that the 1,600 in the quarter relative to some shift. It has been actually pretty steady, and we do continue to expect to see that kind of steady growth going forward as we move through the rest of the year. So that would -- I think that was the first part of the question and then maybe Caroline can take the next part.
And then the second was how we're doing in penetrating the different patient segments. What we have as of now is 75% of the use is for patients with triple therapy or a background prostacyclin. That is increasing as we move forward. And indeed, of the 1,200-plus physicians that have now prescribed WINREVAIR, more than 50% of those have prescribed the product in patients that are less severe or on dual therapy. So that gives us a lot of confidence in our future as we continue to not only help those severe patients, but increasingly move into those patients who are less severe.
I think it's safe to say that HYPERION and ZENITH both are contributing to that growing confidence. So everything is moving as we would hope it would as we entered the space.
I think just to mention something in WINREVAIR, I mean I've actually talked at many of the KOLs at the major center. I think there's just a stream of information that will be helpful. It's not 1 event per se. I think a label update would be really important. I do think that many of the KOLs have been waiting to see the data from Hyperion because it gives them a sense of prescribing it earlier in their journey. So they'll be very interested in that. There is a patient population in PAH, for example, who are overlapped with connective tissue diseases. And they're going to want to see the culmination of all that data across trials. And that data individually, and that data pooled will be very important. And clearly, clearly, the continued Soteria and the fact that the adverse effects and all of this sort of thing are well within the label are things that are going to create an interest of the KOLs to begin to adopt this earlier in the journey and to other patient populations such as connective tissue disease. In relationship to the handset GLP-1, we said that moving to clinic this year, and everything is on schedule.
Our next question comes from Terence Flynn with Morgan Stanley.
I was just -- I wonder if you could offer any preliminary perspective on how a 15% tariff on pharmaceuticals would impact your 2026 outlook. Recognize you're not going to give guidance at this point, but I was just wondering if you could help frame for us the potential impact there? And then any insight if this would be phased in over time or if this would be implemented more near term?
Yes. Terence, this is Rob. I appreciate the question. Maybe I'll take the second part of it first. So we need to see more clarity both from the administration and just overall as to exactly how this is going to play out. So it's still not clear exactly how this relates relative to the 232 investigation and the timing, so to speak, whether these apply now or will be phased in until they're further guidance, I can't really speak to it. But what I would tell you is as we look at -- and I don't want to get '26 guidance because we're not giving forward guidance. But as you look at '25, I would tell you, if this was implemented immediately, it would be minimal impact based on all the work we've done around inventory management and moving our manufacturing to the U.S. We're very well positioned overall as we look forward to be able to do that. And we have made very good progress as we look at even '26. We'll give the specific guidance as we move forward. But for '25, this would be minimal.
This next question comes from Courtney Breen with Bernstein.
Coming back to the comments you've made around the cost savings program and the reallocation of this. Can you give us a little bit of context on your intentions to with KEYTRUDA, specifically recognizing that, that asset is coming nearer to the end of its life cycle, yet there are still many launches as well as a subcutaneous product launch ahead. And so how you're planning on a allocating in the context of KEYTRUDA, SG&A relative to the newer opportunities that you need to fund in both R&D and those new launches.
Yes. Courtney, thank you for the question. As you think about where we sit in oncology and maybe contextualize, and I'll answer the question. Obviously, we've been the leader in IO therapy with KEYTRUDA. And as we've consistently said, we have every intention of not only being and continuing to be the leader but to broaden our leadership across the broader suite of oncology assets we have, which, as you know, now across the tissue targeting agents antibidrug conjugates across all of the small molecules we have, we have one of the broader, if not the broadest pipeline now moving forward in the oncology space. So as you look at the spend, to your point, we're not necessarily looking to pull back spending on oncology. We're going to grow and it's about reallocating the resources and adding to those resources as we start to move away from just being focused on KEYTRUDA to the broader suite of opportunities. So you're going to see other oncology gross spend as KEYTRUDA is pulled back.
And next question comes from [ Chung Win ] with UBS.
It's just 1 on the 1 big beautiful bill expanding the orphan drug exclusion under the IRA and how that affects the timing of KEYTRUDA's potential selection for IRA price cuts? So when KEYTRUDA was initially approved, it carried an orphan designation, its first nonorphan indication was proves about a year later. So does this 1 big beautiful bill update effectively shift KEYTRUDA's IRA selection from 2028 to 2029. And then would the presence of biosimilars, by that time, actually mean KEYTRUDA won't be selected for IRA.
Yes. I appreciate the question. So maybe just from a policy perspective, we are very supportive of the language that was put in, in support of orphan drugs. We've long believed that investing behind orphan and rare disease is important and that the more we can do to support that, it is something which will benefit patients going forward. So in that sense, we're very much supportive of of what the 1 big beautiful bill included in that regard. As it relates specifically to your question, you are correct that -- so KEYTRUDA did launch with an orphan indication in melanoma in 2014. The first nonorphan indication was in lung cancer in 2015. And based on the reading of the bill, as you've done, if you look at what is in there now, that would imply that you would expect now to see the drug selected for negotiation in '27 for implementation of the negotiated price in '29. I'm not going to speculate to whether or not it continues to be included or not as it relates to the LOE then pending LOE. We'll have to see how that plays out. But I also think it's important to also understand with all this said, what we're focused on is how do we grow the business post the impending LOE of KEYTRUDA and drive for sustainability in our business long term. So that is our focus. This is nice, but does not change that fundamental view of our business.
Our next question comes from Tim Anderson with Bank of America.
A couple of long-term questions for Rob. So Rob, you continue to describe the loss of KEYTRUDA as being more of a hill than a cliff. Our model shows the same, but I don't think investors and consensus really believe that -- and you say you're confident in return to growth downstream of that period. So 2 questions. On the Hill comment, can you just remind investors the biggest offsets that you see today for how losing a product that's 50% of your revenues, the time of expiry will, in fact, not be a cliff. And then second, when you talk about confidence in growth over the longer term. Can you put parameters around that when that would be likely we showed trough revenues 2031. That would be [ 3 ] years past patent expiry. All part is that a realistic time frame for when consistent growth would return?
Yes. Jim, thank you for the question. Actually, I very much appreciate it because this is the core of the valuation thesis for our company. And my own view of this is that I do think the Street underappreciates the power of what we have in our pipeline. And as we see that play out, as I've consistently said, as we see those proof points continue to play out, and I would point to when River is the first. We're now seeing it with cabbaxib. I think clazrovumab will be another one. We have enlicitide coming stack TMT, all of these opportunities as they roll out, I think that confidence will grow over time. But to your specific question, what are we focused on. Recall that we've given guidance in a broad sense to the fact that we see over $50 billion of potential opportunity from our different therapeutic areas, starting with oncology, broad-based oncology. We now have over 60 Phase III clinical studies, I think, across was it 13 different tumor types, which will be coming over the next 5 years, incredibly broad across our antibody drug conjugates across all of the small molecules.
We have the individualized neoantigen therapy, the list would go on. But we think those alone are over $25 billion, and we had an opportunity at ASCO to begin to talk about some of that, and we will continue to show more of that as we go forward. Our confidence there is better today than it was even at ASCO with every card return, we feel better about that going forward. And then you look beyond that in the cardiometabolic, we've directed to approximately $15 billion in the cardiometabolic space. really what's foundational elements coming from Wind River, which we talked about, and we continue to be very enthused by what we're seeing there. Enlicitide or oral PCSK9 and we continue to think is a huge opportunity, and we'll continue to focus on what we have in MK-6024, which is our MASH product. We're going to see, I think, data later this year. We continue to feel very good about that. So our overall suite of the cardiometabolic space, we feel very good about. That's the $15 billion ophthalmology, I think, is underappreciated with a multibillion-dollar opportunity.
We just recently went through our HIV portfolio with approximately $5 billion of opportunity. And we feel very good about that and the data we have and where our portfolio is going to go. It's very important. Immunology is another $5 billion which is important to focus on animal health, you look at the quarter of the growth we showed in Animal Health this quarter. This business is going to be a fast-growing business for this company throughout our long-range plan period and is really based on a new product story very much like the human health business, we're actually just got approval in Europe for NUMELVI, our JAK inhibitor for dermatitis. We just got approval for our injectable and once annual in the United States. Those are the first of multiple new product offerings coming in that business. That is going to allow us to more than double it by the time we get out to the mid-2030s.
And then all of this excludes what else we're going to do in business development, the fact that we just did Otter, which added another multibillion-dollar opportunity that wasn't in that $50 billion when we said it is further block -- building block being added as well. And then we still have a lot to do on business development. We've been very clear. We're not stopping. And we have an early stage pipeline, which as we move into '26 and especially into 27, you're going to see increasingly things coming out of our Phase I pipeline into our Phase II, which will be visible that are all very exciting. So all of that is why if I sit and look at where we're at, I feel very good.
And then obviously, we continue to have subcutaneous KEYTRUDA and the base of what we believe will be the KEYTRUDA business, which we will continue to be able to benefit for patients through those offerings. So I think your characterization is fair. I actually agree with it. And as far as though, as it looks to how quickly we get back to growth, it would be one where I would say I don't want to get specifics on years, but we've been very clear. We want to minimize the cliff, which I think we have done. That's why I talk about the Hill, and we want to get back to growth quickly. And I do see a path to do that, and I'm confident we will. And I think if you go back to the JPM presentation we gave, we had a slide in there which was a representation, if you will, the [ con ] of opportunity within our long-range plan, that kind of gives a profile very similar to what you just described.
I know we're over time. We have time for a few more questions.
Our next question comes from Alex Hammond with Wolfe Research.
For enlicitide, the team has highlighted it as a platform to add other cardiometabolic assets on to. With that context, what combinations and indications could we expect? And when could we receive updates.
Yes. So thank you very much for the question. So just to reset, our ambition is that this is going to be the first oral PCSK9 and it will not just be first. It will be the best in relationship to everything that we've seen from competitor data. And we expect to have it the most effective oral LDL-lowering option, and it should have confidence in cardiovascular outcomes that are comparable, but actually, we believe could be better than the biologics. And we think that with the data that we have, we recognize that 70% of patients with ASCVD even treated with statins do not treat the LDL cholesterol.
So when you think about that, LDL is 1 axis in relationship to cardiovascular outcomes. And LDL, clearly, there would be combinations that you would make with enlicitide to even deepen that response and more. So that's a combination that would be advanced that can advance quickly. But I think there's also evolving data in relationship, and we will see that probably from others in relationship to, for example, LPL. I think in that patient population, if reducing LP-led is indeed shown to be important for lowering cardiovascular outcomes than the potential of having an Lp(a) molecule that can do that, but also recognizing that PCSK9 at further reduction of Lp(a) and in the patient populations who have high liter the way that I've treated them is I give them PCSK9, that a combination there may be something that's really important. And then the future other combinations essentially related to other access I talked about LDL, LP(a). We would clearly be interested in inflammatory accesses and other accesses in combination. So elicitide is a really important molecule. It is a molecule that we believe can serve as a platform to be driving cardiovascular outcomes in increments of 20%, 25%, 30%, and we're very excited for that future.
We have time for 2 more questions, please.
Our next question comes from James Shin with Deutsche Bank.
One for Dean. Dean, I appreciate everything is on schedule for MK 2010, but was Merck notified of no biopharms interest in Lenova. And does that have any bearing on Merck's commitment to 2010 or the development of a PD-1 VEGF bispecific more broadly?
I would just emphasize our commitment is based on our interest in the space since 2018. So our commitment has not changed. And as I've said, the Lenova program that we have is moving forward as planned. In terms of notification or not notification, that's something that we don't comment in terms of business development.
The next question comes from Mohit Bansal with Wells Fargo.
So I have a question regarding the guidance. So if I compare the guidance on FX basis versus the prior quarter, it does seem like you lowered the upper end of the growth from -- just wanted to understand if there is a change in the operational business that we need to be aware about.
Your line cut out. I think the question was about the -- you see a reduction in the guidance. But can you talk about guidance, Caroline?
So the guidance that we've given this quarter is to maintain the midpoint for revenues and to increase EPS by $0.03. There was a very modest tailwind from foreign exchange. And that has really offset a few headwinds. The first would be a low level of coped cases during the summer season, which has impacted our outlook for [indiscernible] The second is we have seen an early entrant of a biosimilar for pembrolizumab in Argentina, which has impacted revenues there. All of that said, we are confident in our ability to drive growth in our business this year of between 1% and 2%. And when you exclude the impact of the headwind of trying as GARDASIL, we have underlying growth of between 6% and 8%. So we're confident in our future despite the uncertain macro environment that do exist for our industry.
Great. Thank you all very much for your questions. As always, Investor Relations is available for any follow-ups. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference. We thank you for your participation. At this time, you may disconnect your lines.
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Merck & Co. — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
Merck & Co. — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: $15,8 Mrd (−2% YoY; ex‑FX ebenfalls −2%).
- KEYTRUDA: $8,0 Mrd (+9% YoY).
- GARDASIL: $1,1 Mrd (−55% YoY; China‑Rückgang ~ $1,3 Mrd belastet Wachstum).
- WINREVAIR: $336 Mio TQ; kumulative Nettoverkäufe > $1 Mrd in ~15 Monaten.
- EPS (non‑GAAP): $2,13; Bruttomarge: 82,2% (+1,3 Pp).
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Portfolio‑Reallokation: Multijährige Optimierungsinitiative: $3 Mrd Kosteneinsparungen sollen vollständig in wachstumsstarke Bereiche reinvestiert werden (R&D, Launch‑Support).
- Gezielte Akquisition: Erwerb von Verona Pharma (Otabera/Octavier) zur Stärkung des Kardiopulmonal‑Segments und Beschleunigung von COPD‑Chancen nach Closing im Q4.
- Pipeline‑Momentum: Mehr als 80 Phase‑III‑Studien; positive Top‑Line‑Readouts (enlicitide, WINREVAIR HYPERION/ ZENITH) und mehrere anstehende Registrierungs‑/PDUFA‑Termine.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Umsatzrange 2025: $64,3–65,3 Mrd (Wachstum 1–2%; ex‑FX −0,5% angenommener Effekt bei Mitteljuli‑Kursen).
- EPS: $8,87–8,97 (inkl. FX‑Negativwirkung ≈ $0,15).
- OpEx & Steuern: Operative Aufwendungen $25,6–26,4 Mrd; Steuersatz 15–16%.
- GARDASIL China: Keine weiteren Lieferungen mindestens bis Jahresende; Wirkung auf kurzfristiges Wachstum.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- WINREVAIR‑Fragen: Marktgröße, Ex‑US‑Erstattung und Timing (Label‑Update, PDUFA/Präsentationen) waren zentral; Management bestätigte großes, aber noch early‑stage internationales Upside.
- GARDASIL‑Risiken: China‑Inventar und mögliche ACIP‑Debatte über Einzeldosis – Management betonte Evidenzanforderungen und pausierte China‑Shipments.
- $3 Mrd‑Programm: Analysten fragten nach OpEx‑Pfad und R&D‑Priorisierung; Management sagte Reinvestition in Pipeline und Launches, konkrete Jahreffekte blieben qualitativ.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Investment‑Implikation: Ergebnis in Linie mit Erwartungen; kurzfr. Headwinds (GARDASIL China, lumpy CDC‑Käufe) gegen solide Launch‑dynamik. Schlüssel für Aktionäre bleibt Pipeline‑execution und erfolgreiche Reallokation der $3 Mrd, um den erwarteten Rückgang durch KEYTRUDA‑LOE abzufedern.
Merck & Co. — Special Call - Merck & Co., Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Merck & Co., Inc. Rahway, New Jersey, USA, HIV Investor Event. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.
I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Peter Dannenbaum, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Thank you, Shirley. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Merck's HIV Investor Event, coinciding with the 13th International AIDS Society Conference on HIV Science.
Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that some of the statements that we make today may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are made based on the current beliefs of our company's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. If our underlying assumptions prove inaccurate or uncertainties materialize, actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.
Our SEC filings, including Item 1A in the 2024 10-K, identify certain risk factors and cautionary statements that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from those projected in any of our forward-looking statements made this morning. Merck & Co., Inc. Rahway, New Jersey, USA, undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements. During today's call, slide presentation will accompany our speakers' prepared remarks. These slides in our SEC filings are posted to the Investor Relations section of our company's website.
Speaking on today's call will be Dr. Eliav Barr, Senior Vice President, Head of Global Clinical Development and Chief Medical Officer; Dr. Liz Rhee, Vice President, Clinical Research Infectious Disease; and Chirfi Guindo, Chief Marketing Officer, Human Health. The full biographies of the speakers can be found in the appendix of the accompanying slide presentation.
Now moving to the agenda. Eliav will start our prepared remarks with a strategy overview. Liz will then provide a research update across our broad HIV pipeline, and Chirfi will discuss the commercial opportunity. Eliav will then wrap up with closing remarks before we turn to Q&A.
With that, let me turn it over to Eliav.
Thank you, Peter, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us in today's event in conjunction with the International AIDS Society Meeting. Today, we'll provide an in-depth review of our HIV treatment and prevention pipeline as well as the opportunity that stands before us to help more people at risk for or living with HIV infection.
Our commitment to HIV started at the very beginning of the AIDS epidemic. And over the years, we've been responsible for creation of the prototype of each of the potent antiretrovirals that are designated as anchor-- anchors of HIV treatment regimens. Now I joined Merck in 1995. At that time, Merck had just announced the results of the CRIXIVAN Phase III program that led to the licensure of this protease inhibitor anchor medicine within weeks of submission. The company had also discovered the first NNRTI, efavirenz, a drug that became the anchor medicine in ATRIPLA, the first single-tablet regimen for HIV treatment.
After these successes, we continue to innovate. We discovered the integrated strand transfer inhibitor or InSTI class of anchor medicines, and we launched ISENTRESS, which is the prototype for this class. Iterations on ISENTRESS' profile led to development of InSTI that have become the most common anchors in HIV therapy regimens today. We've continued our innovation by ensuring availability of drugs for pediatrics even down to newborns. More recently, our goal has been to find new types of antiretrovirals with high barriers to resistance and potency to help enable reductions in the burden of HIV treatment and prevention regimens.
With the in-licensing of islatravir [indiscernible], we introduced a new class of anchor medicine, the nucleoside reverse transcriptase translocation inhibitor, NRTTI doravirine/islatravir is a first investigation in regimen in the NRTTI era. Now Merck remains active in the field of HIV research because collectively, the HIV treatment and prevention community has yet to reach full control and prevention of HIV as defined by the UNAIDS 2030 goals.
There still remains significant unmet need globally in HIV with currently approximately 40 million people living with HIV. An estimated 1.3 million people were infected with HIV in 2023, which equates to about 3,500 new infections per day.
For these individuals, it has proven difficult to remove the stigma associated with HIV. We intend to be part of the solution for the continued unmet need in HIV treatment and prevention worldwide. So how are we going to do that? We aspire to be the first -- to be first-in-class and best-in-class with our NRTTIs, which we hope will serve as important -- an important roles in both treatment and PrEP or prevention. NRTTI inhibit HIV reverse transcriptase through immediate and delayed chain termination after incorporation into viral DNA. These agents also block reverse transcriptase translocation preventing nucleotide incorporation.
NRTTIs are potent and long-acting molecules. As exemplified by our candidate medicine for PrEP, which is being studied in a Phase III trial at 11 milligrams once monthly. Because of this, NRTTIs maybe appropriate for weekly, monthly and potentially even longer interval regimens. A longer dosing interval has the potential to reduce treatment failure due to noncompliance to offer additional treatment options and to reduce stigma.
Our clinical trials have shown that at the appropriate doses NRTTIs have had favorable efficacy, safety and drug-drug interaction profiles. Features especially important in older individuals and those people with comorbidities. Finally, our regimens are InSTI-free reserving this important class of therapies for later if needed.
Now our current in-line portfolio includes the original InSTI, ISENTRESS as well as PIFELTRO or doravirine; and DELSTRIGO, which is a fixed-dose combination of doravirine TDF and 3TC. Doravirine is an important part of the current portfolio, but it's also in our current investigational two-drug islatravir based regimens. It is an NNRTI with favorable efficacy and safety profile.
In the near term, we will leverage our experience with doravirine to create a single tablet regimen with islatravir, our leading NRTTI candidate. Now Liz will review the data from this regimen. It's been filed in the U.S. and a PDUFA date has been set for April 28, 2026. We've also invested heavily in our once-weekly treatment regimens, which can reduce the burden of adherence to 1/7 compared with daily regimens. An advantage for individuals with busy or complicated lives. The first of these investigational weekly treatment regimens will combine islatravir with lenacapavir. And this is part of our ongoing collaboration with Gilead. This regimen leverages the potency of islatravir and the proven track record of lenacapavir to create a two-drug regimen.
Our long-term expertise in NNRTIs has enabled us to discover several candidates with different pharmacologic profiles. One of these is ulonivirine which we are studying in combination with islatravir is a weekly single-tablet regimen. Islatravir/ULO has the potential to be the smallest tablet approved and one with a favorable DDI profile.
Control of HIV transmission requires multiple PrEP options. We are very excited about the potential of MK-8527, which is being studied as a once monthly oral PrEP pill. It's a very small tablet that can be used easily and in a discrete manner, and we think it's going to be very important globally. We also have intensive research efforts to look at new therapies not only longer term, longer acting, longer half-life medicines within the classes we've talked about already, but also new classes of medicine.
We've been at the forefront of developing anchor medicines in HIV with features to enable different attacks on the HIV virus. We believe theses opportunities-- those opportunities also exist in our preclinical and early clinical pipeline. As we move forward to the next period of future innovation in HIV, we'll be considering our ability to develop long-acting formulations, which include assets in the family of NRTTIs and also in the family of NNRTIs. These leverage our expertise in those classes of drugs. We also have collaborations with Gilead and a variety of options in both treatment and PrEP under development.
We're also thinking hard about how we will leverage our expertise to bring forward either cure or long-term control or reset approaches. One of these approaches of interest is the RT-TACK mechanism of action. These are NNRTIs that have the additional feature of selectively killing HIV-infected cells. We are currently evaluating candidate medicines in early development.
So with that, I'd like to turn the virtual podium over to Liz, who's going to be telling us more about the current pipeline, focusing on the results we presented recently at CROI as well as in IAS this week. Liz?
Thank you, Eliav. I am very excited today to be here with you to share more about our expansive HIV pipeline, which has continued to make great progress. Today, we'll be highlighting the four programs that are currently in late-stage development in our HIV pipeline. These programs are anchored on our NRTTI molecules and are leveraging the properties of this class. Each program has generated data that we think is really exciting and support the progression of these programs.
We have three programs in development for treatment that are anchored by islatravir, including a once-daily oral treatment program with doravirine/islatravir which has recently filed the initial NDA in the U.S. based on data in adult participants who are virologically stable. The PDUFA date for this filing is set for April in 2026.
In addition, we have filed an application for doravirine/islatravir in Japan. Then we have our first weekly oral treatment with islatravir in combination with lenacapavir which we are developing in partnership with Gilead and which is in Phase III development. We have a once monthly oral PrEP option with a new investigational NRTTI, MK-8527 which is on the cusp of starting Phase III.
Finally, we have our wholly internal oral weekly treatment regimen candidate where islatravir is being combined with our new investigational NNRTI ulonivirine, which has recently started Phase II. With these four programs, we have the potential for 4 NDAs to be filed over the next few years. This is truly exciting for us as we see that each of these products can be a potentially important option for people living with HIV or people who are at risk of acquiring HIV.
The NDA for doravirine/islatravir is currently under review by the FDA, and the basis for this filing was two pivotal studies in virologically suppressed adults who have no history of treatment failure. Importantly, in this program, this is the first set of Phase III studies where we were able to demonstrate that a two-drug regimen that does not contain an integrase inhibitor was non-inferior to a three-drug regimen containing an integrase inhibitor.
The two Phase III trials, protocol 051 and Protocol 052 were conducted in virologically stable participants. In each trial, they were randomized to either continue on their baseline treatment or switch to doravirine/islatravir. In protocol 051, the baseline treatment was background antiretroviral therapy, which included different kinds of 2 and 3 drug regimens and in protocol 052, the comparator with bictegravir FTC/TAF.
In both trials, we were able to demonstrate strong efficacy results. In both trials, the doravirine/islatravir was not inferior to the comparator as demonstrated by the primary endpoint results at week 48 based on people having RNA levels above 50 copies per ml. This is on the left of each of the figures. As you can see in the figures, the second bars--second set of bars on the right show that there were high rates of virologic suppression greater than 90% in both trials. Importantly, there was no treatment emergent resistance to either doravirine or islatravir that was observed in either study. And the tolerability and safety profiles were comparable in each of these trials to the comparator.
Also important to note is that we saw that total lymphocyte and CD4 count changes over the course of these studies was similar between doravirine/islatravir and the comparator regimens. These are very promising results because this is the first two drug regimen that does not contain integrase inhibitor, has demonstrated comparable efficacy with three-drug regimen containing an integrase inhibitor.
Our filing in the U.S. was accepted for an indication in virologically suppressed adults. We have another study protocol 053 being conducted in treatment-naive adults, which has completed enrollment, and we expect that the week 48 data will read out by the end of this year and will be presented next year at a scientific meeting. We expect these data to support the initial application in the EU and to support a U.S. label expansion as well.
In addition to a once-daily regimen, including islatravir, we are also developing two once-weekly two-drug oral treatment regimens, both containing islatravir. And we think that each of these will be an important option for patients who desire a weekly oral regimen as a way to shift away from daily treatment. We believe that once weekly oral regimens will help to address challenges around pill fatigue that people living with HIV often grapple with. Islatravir/lenacapavir, which we're developing with Gilead, our partner on this program is currently Phase III and recently completed enrollment for those studies. This combination is being studied in virologically suppressed adults and will include a loading dose strategy followed by a single tablet administered once weekly.
We are excited that this has the potential to be the first weekly oral treatment regimen to market and the first complete long-acting oral treatment regimen for HIV. The islatravir/ulonivirine program has recently started Phase II and is currently being evaluated in adults who are virologically stable, but we also have plans to study this in adults who are treatment-naive. This regimen is differentiated from the launch of lenacapavir by the inclusion of ulonivirine, which is an investigational NNRTI.
It's being studied at a dose of 200 milligrams in combination with islatravir, which we think will have the potential for a more simplified regimen as a single tablet that has the potential to be smaller than the islatravir/lenacapavir tablet without requiring a loading dose. And we also believe importantly that this has a potential to have a favorable safety and DDI profile.
For the islatravir/lenacapavir program, we've conducted a Phase II study to evaluate this combination and presented these data last year at CROI and at IDWeek. What's shown on this slide are the week 48 results that were presented at IDWeek. In this trial, as you can see, where the comparator was bictegravir FTC/TAF, islatravir/lenacapavir resulted in virologic suppression at high rates that were similar to what we're seeing in the comparator group.
Importantly, there were no participants that were discontinued due to decreases in CD4, T-cell or lymphocyte counts and the overall lymphocyte and CD4 counts were similar across treatment groups.
These are the data that gave us confidence to move this program into Phase III. And this program we're calling the ISLEND program. This was initiated at the end of last year and enrollment recently completed. ISLEND-1 and ISLEND-2 are being conducted in adults who are virologically suppressed and in ISLEND-1, the comparator is bictegravir FTC/TAF. This is a blinded -- double blinded randomized control trial. ISLEND-2, in contrast, is an open-label randomized trial, and here the comparator is baseline antiretroviral therapy, which can include different two or three drug regimens. Both of these trials are expected to read out the 48-week results in mid-2026, and we look forward to seeing these results.
Ulonivirine or MK-8507, this is our novel investigational NNRTI and we are moving this forward in development in combination with islatravir as part of our wholly internal Merck oral weekly treatment regimens. This week, we presented data from this program at IAS. Ulonivirine is a potent NNRTI. This was demonstrated in the Phase Ib proof-of-concept study, where we saw excellent virologic activity. We did conduct a prior Phase IIb study where we dose ranged Ulonivirine in combination with a higher dose of islatravir. And this study -- while stop early did provide helpful supporting data for the combination and for the selection of the ulonivirine dose.
As shown on this slide, the predicted ulonivirine exposures with a 200 mg once-weekly dose met the PK threshold to cover wild-type and common NNRTI variance. We've also generated data to demonstrate that there's no clinically meaningful drug-drug interaction between islatravir and ulonivirine, and that repeat dosing of ulonivirine has no adverse effect on total lymphocyte counts and CD4 counts. The Phase II study of the combination is currently enrolling and we look forward to seeing the results next year for week 24 primary endpoint.
So in addition to creating meaningful options for treatment, we believe it's really important as well to provide meaningful options for HIV PrEP. We are very excited that we have the opportunity with MK-8527 and that we've made progress in advancing this program. The concept of a once-monthly oral pill to prevent HIV infection has many potential benefits for people who are at high risk for HIV. MK-8527 is being uniquely developed only for PrEP, and we believe it can have a potential, very important impact on global public health. Based on the pharmacokinetic profile of this molecule, we anticipate a fast onset of protection so that within an hour of taking the first dose of MK-8527 people would be able to have a month of protection from HIV. There would also be no need for a loading dose.
In addition, with the discretion that's allowed with a small once-monthly oral pill, we believe this will be easy to use and address concerns around stigma that are associated with taking a pill for PrEP every day. And this will -- also, we believe, offer different ways for implementation that may be more convenient for people compared to an injection that patients would have to go to a physician's office to receive. Importantly, based on the data seen so far MK-8527 has the potential to provide favorable efficacy, safety and DDI profile for those people who could benefit from using PrEP.
This week at IAS, we've presented Phase II data for MK-8527, and these are the results that supported advancing this program to Phase III. MK-8527 is an NRTTI with the same mechanism of action as islatravir. It is also highly potent and has excellent resistance in vitro. The Phase II study results informed our selection of a dose for Phase III trials, which will be starting imminently.
As you can see in the top figure, which shows the study schema, we conducted a Phase II dose-ranging study of MK-8527 compared to a placebo where we looked at three different doses of MK-8527. The study was conducted in people who are at low risk for HIV infection and evaluated safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics. As you can see from the concentration over time figure, the pharmacokinetic results support monthly dosing of MK-8527 for PrEP.
Based on the modeling that's been conducted from these data, we selected a dose of 11 milligrams to advance into the Phase III program. Importantly, all three doses were well tolerated and demonstrating the safety profile that was comparable across the different doses of MK-8527 and to the placebo group.
So we are moving forward to initiate the Phase III expressive program for MK-8527 PrEP. This program is comprised of two Phase III trials, EXPrESSIVE-10 and EXPrESSIVE-11. EXPrESSIVE-10 is being conducted in adolescent girls and young women at greater likelihood of HIV exposure and our EXPrESSIVE-11 is being conducted in populations at greater risk of HIV exposure, which includes many who have sex with men and transgender individuals.
Both of these trials are large studies evaluating MK-8527 once monthly against the daily oral comparator FTC/TDF. Off note, EXPrESSIVE-10 will include not only older adolescence, meaning 16 to 17 years old, but also women who become pregnant, while on the trial may opt to stay on the study. So we anticipate data in pregnancy and lactation in this trial.
EXPrESSIVE-10 is being conducted in partnership with the Gates Foundation and this is a collaboration that both the Gates Foundation, and we are very excited about. We do see the great potential here to bring forward a meaningful option for people around the world as well as an opportunity to impact the global epidemic in areas where there's still very high rates of this infections such as Sub-Saharan Africa.
EXPrESSIVE-11 is slated to start any day now, and we anticipate the first participant will be involved in early August. And this study will be conducted globally. So we look forward to the initiation of the Phase III program and sharing the progress with you in the future.
With that, I will turn this call over to Chirfi.
Thank you, Liz. Good morning, everyone. As we've mentioned before, Merck has a long and rich legacy in HIV. We have a track record dating back to the early 2000s of working in partnership with governments and global partners, such as the Gates Foundation to enable broad sustainable global access to our HIV innovations.
I'm proud to have been part of several of these important access initiatives when I led global marketing for HIV at our company. And before that, when I served as Managing Director for Merck in South Africa. It is humbling to now be in a position to potentially bring forward four very important options for both treatment and PrEP in the near future.
HIV is a large market that is anticipated to continue to grow rapidly, primarily driven by demand for PrEP. The treatment market is also expected to continue to grow to approximately $25 billion by the mid-2030s. As you heard from Eliav earlier in the presentation, high unmet needs remain in HIV. Up to 1 in every 5 people living with HIV switched their treatment regimens annually due to tolerability, resistance or the desire for simpler regimens.
On the PrEP side, a substantial opportunity exists to bring new options into the market, including a monthly oral option like MK-8527. This is particularly exciting for people who are seeking flexibility and the discretion that comes with having a monthly pill that can protect against HIV.
The HIV landscape -- next slide, the HIV landscape is continuing to evolve and the needs of the community are becoming more and more clear. We have done a lot of work in market research, interacting with patients, advocacy groups, providers and other members of the community. Four main insights have emerged from those interactions. First and foremost, people with HIV or aging. Currently, half of people living with HIV in the U.S. are 50 or older. Roughly 1/3 of people living with HIV have comorbidities. It is, therefore, important to bring forward suitable options for these individuals.
The second insight is on the growing need for simplification and two-drug regimens in particular. People on treatment are wanting less drug, while enabling viral control and the efficacy that these regimens provide. The third insight is a need for additional options and choice because adherence challenges continue with many people living with HIV missing doses on their existing treatments.
Finally, stigma continues to be a challenge. As Eliav noted, almost half of adults have discriminatory attitudes towards people living with HIV. It is important to be able to bring forward options that allow for discrete dosing and potentially have minimal interaction with the health care system. Approximately 1/3 of people when asked would prefer long-acting oral options for both treatment as well as for PrEP. This is precisely what we will offer as we continue to develop our exciting pipeline.
On the treatment side, we have DOR/ISL as a potential daily oral regimen. ISL/LEN in collaboration with Gilead as a potential first oral weekly regimen and ISL/ULO as a wholly owned potential weekly oral regimen. For these options, these options provide biologically surprised -- suppress people living with HIV with a simpler two-drug regimen that do not contain an InSTI. This can be particularly meaningful for people who are getting older and for whom drug-drug interactions cardiometabolic toxicities and other tolerability issues may be a concern. Our new treatment options may be able to offer choices for both switch as well as treatment-naive populations of people living with HIV.
Importantly, they can reduce pill burden with weekly dosing for ISL/LEN and ISL/ULO. On the PrEP side, we're aiming to launch the first and only monthly tablet for HIV prevention with MK-8527, our investigational NRTTI that has been specifically developed for PrEP and PrEP only. This is important because there will be less concern about the potential for resistance when thinking about use of the same molecule for treatment and for PrEP. MK-8527 has the potential to enable fast onset of protection within 1 hour of intake with no loading dose needed.
It would provide discrete monthly oral dosing to meet the preferences of many people seeking long-acting protection would not want injections. We expect this program will be meaningful for public health on a global basis and we fully recognize the responsibility our company has to work with partners to address public health needs, both in high-income countries as well as in low and middle-income countries.
We feel we are well positioned to drive important progress for people impacted by HIV around the world. Earlier this year, we laid out the components of our expansive, late-stage pipeline that comprise a potential revenue opportunity of over $50 billion by the mid-2030s. Putting MFN aside. With that, we see an opportunity of greater than $5 billion for our late-stage HIV portfolio, which consists of four impactful new product launches anticipated over the next few years.
The first of which is DOR/ISL for daily oral treatment. Last week, FDA accepted for review the NDA of DOR/ISL and set a PDUFA date of April 28, 2026. This would be the first regimen containing an NRTTI to be approved by the FDA. It would also be the first complete two-drug regimen that does not contain an InSTI.
Subsequently, we have a potential first long-acting oral treatment to be approved with ISL/LEN in partnership with Gilead, which is currently in Phase III and has primary completion days next year. Next, we have our potential once-monthly oral PrEP MK-8527, which will begin in Phase III immediately. Finally, we have ISL/ULO, which combined islatravir, with our investigational next-generation long-acting NNRTI ulonivirine with high barrier to resistance.
ISL/ULO which is fully owned by Merck and currently in Phase II, has the potential to be the smallest pill approved for four once weekly treatment, which also does not require loading dose.
This greater than $5 billion opportunity on a non-risk-adjusted basis underlines our confidence in this pipeline of HIV treatment and prevention options.
Our excitement to bring forward these innovations is matched by the enthusiasm of the community as we heard this very weak at IAS. It identifies our important presence in HIV since day 1. We're eager to leverage our commercial engine and our global footprint to bring forward these great new options for people impacted by HIV around the world.
And with that, I turn the call back to Eliav.
Thank you, Chirfi. From all that has been shared, it should be evident that we are highly interested in continuing to contribute to HIV treatment and prevention. We're confident in our ability to play an important role with these programs we have laid out. We are pioneering potentially novel options, including with NRTTI anchor medicine that has a unique mechanism of action, high potency, high barrier to resistance, favorable DDI profile and the capability for a longer-acting impacts in treatment and prevention regimens.
We anticipate four new approvals in the near term, and we are working with speed to ensure that we can get these important medicines to people globally. We continue to work with the community to ensure that HIV treatment and prevention remains a top priority for public health officials. We want to make sure that people are not defined by their HIV. Firstly, by preventing infection; and secondly, by bringing forward regimens that enable people to control their HIV without having to think about it often.
And with that, I'll hand the call back to Peter.
Thank you, Eliav. Surely, we're ready for Q&A. Before we get started, two things, please. First, Kathryn Hayward, Senior Vice President, U.S. Pharma will be available for questions. And secondly, if I could request that questioners please limit the subject matter today to the -- to our HIV program. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Trung Huynh with UBS.
2. Question Answer
We've just got two on 8527. So I guess, first, what makes you confident that 8527 doesn't have the lymphocyte lowering issues when used at higher doses for the monthly combos. And then secondly, and perhaps linked to the first question, but is there a road map for injections for longer durations for this product like a four or six months or even resuming the implant development for 12 months which you previously had for islatravir or can you not push that dose higher because of those lymphocyte lowering issues?
Right. I'll take that. This is Eliav. We have had extensive de-risking program for MK-8527 that followed the same path that led to the successful de-risking of MK-8527 -- I'm sorry, MK-8591 or islatravir. We have the right models and the right clinical data that have given us that confidence.
And equally, the data that we presented today or this week at IAS and also reviewed extensively with regulatory authorities has convinced them that we are on the right track here with a drug that has enormous potential. So we're very excited about that. With respect to your second question, we're exploring a variety of different injectable options. That work is in earlier stages of development and -- but we're confident that we'll be able to bring forward medicines that will allow for a whole variety of different durations of therapy and hopefully as long as possible.
Great. Thanks, Trung. Next question for you, Shirley.
Our next question comes from Mohit Bansal with Wells Fargo.
Just a couple of questions. One is that it does seem like market might shift to injectables if you -- in longer term for -- especially for the PrEP market. What does your market research suggest which makes you more confident around the monthly oral, yes, it is monthly. And then number two, with the islatravir or ULO combo, you are combining two NRTTI. So is there any potential for added toxicity given that there are two similar mechanism and one of them did cause at higher doses lymphodepletion?
Yes. Let me start by the second with the correction. The islatravir/ULO are two actually--two different mechanisms of action. Islatravir, I know that the letters are very similar, but they're completely -- they're different mechanism of action. Islatravir is an NRTTI and ulonivirine is NNRTI. The natural confusion-- but they're different. So we don't expect any -- and we've actually de-risked those molecules pretty well including long duration dosing of ulonivirine monotherapy just to make sure it has absolutely no lymphocyte effect. So that combination I think, will be a very exciting one. With respect to the [ Q ] monthly, I'm going to turn that to Chirfi to answer.
Yes. No, thank you for the question, Mohit. So I think it's important to highlight that despite the availability of daily options for PrEP, availability of injectables, still 1.3 million people get infected on an annual basis. So clearly, more is needed to protect individuals who want to be -- who want to avoid HIV infection around the world.
So we believe when we did the market research, we have presented options to these individuals. About 1/3 of them have signaled a preference for a monthly oral option to protect themselves. And the reason for that is really the fact that it would be more convenient for them. You would give them the option of having a potent, rapid protection within an hour in the case of MK-8527, sorry.
They could take this medicine in the comfort of their home, you could think about telemedicine in this context where individuals would not need to necessarily go to the doctor to get their injection. So we believe that this oral monthly prep option would actually expand access and facilitate access to many individuals in the United States and around the world. So we're excited about this opportunity, frankly. You should have been at IAS, you would have heard the community super enthusiastic about this monthly oral option.
Our next question comes from Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.
Malcolm Hoffman on for Evan. Thinking about MK-8527 again, can you talk about how Merck may be able to capture a greater opportunity in the lower-risk patients not exposed to HIV? Also I know this is not the majority of the market opportunity in this patient population, but could you maybe contextualize how you think about the opportunity for these patients?
Chirfi, why don't you take that?
Yes. So for us, I mean, the opportunity is so huge in the people who are at risk, as I mentioned, $1.3 million who are getting infected on an annual basis. So our studies were done specifically in those populations. And so this is really the opportunity that we're going to go after in the coming periods.
Thank you, Malcolm. Next question please Shirley?
Our next question comes from Asad Haider with Goldman Sachs.
Great. Two quick ones. First for PrEP. Can you maybe talk about how you'll position and what market share you think is possible versus generic daily orals, Gilead's DESCOVY will also be generic around the time you launch. And also against Gilead's lenacapavir where there will likely be the early injection formulation when you launch as well. And then second on treatment, how do you think about how much share you could build from BIKTARVY with the Gilead partnered weekly oral? And how might that compete with Gilead's wholly owned weekly oral both make it to market, recognizing of course with the latter is currently on a clinical hold.
Just -- this is Eliav. I'll just make a couple of general comments. I think it's really important in the PrEP space to have options that enable people to have discrete and low compliant -- low compliance burden options. When we talked to folks around the -- in both high- and middle- and low-income countries, the idea of having a monthly pill discrete at home telemedicine or not having to go to a health care center to get an injection is a real home run winner for them.
I think it's a very important one. And in terms of the treatment, again, they -- we have -- there'll be a lot of options needed for treatment. We have -- with our Q-weekly. We have the power of working together with Gilead. We'll have our own-- wholly owned drug that will have some very unique properties and a broader label. In terms of looking at the opportunities, I'll turn it over to Chirfi for more contextualization.
Yes. So I would go back to what I said about PrEP to start with. And Eliav summarized it nicely in terms of what the community is wanting the options that the community is seeking for protection. I think the advantage of MK-8527 really is the fact that it is a small pill, it works very fast within an hour of intake. You get a full protection for a whole month and you even have forgiveness up to seven days beyond that. And you can take it with the discretion that Eliav talked about, and you don't have to go to the doctor and get a needle injection and so on and so forth.
So we believe that many, many individuals will choose this option. And market research suggested about 1/3 of people would opt for this for their protection if it were available. And then on the treatment side, again, I agree with what Eliav said. We believe that our weekly options are going to be well positioned and we will have a meaningful share for both ISL/LEN when approved as well as ISL/ULO when approved. These are very good options that provide differentiated benefits for patients going forward.
Next question, please, Shirley.
Our next question comes from Luisa Hector with Berenberg.
On MK-8527 I wonder if you could comment on the amount of data you have on drug interactions, including perhaps recreational drug use? And then secondly, on your sales ambitions by therapy area. They do tend to arrive in $5 billion increments. So given the amount of data that you have in-house in HIV, could you comment on whether your over $5 billion sales potential has increased towards $10 billion and if not, why not?
Great. Well, maybe we'll start with the DDI question, and I'll ask Liz to comment on that.
Yes. Thank you, Eliav. So MK-8527's potential for drug-drug interactions is low. And this is based on the preclinical profiling that's been done for this compound as well as some Phase I dedicated studies that we've conducted. So we do think that overall, the potential for meaningful DDI is low with this compound.
And I'd just add to that, that these -- the NRTTIs are the metabolism and such that it has that the drug-drug interaction potential is really quite minor. Obviously, we can't do direct drug-drug interaction studies in people with recreational drugs but we -- but based on our understanding of what the metabolism of those drugs, we don't anticipate any drug-drug interactions there necessarily. Of course, there's a lot of impurities in these drugs, and we don't really know what might happen unfortunately, on an individual basis. When we -- let's talk about the commercial side.
Yes. I don't want to give -- we -- our confidence continues to be reinforced with respect to our HIV pipeline based on the data, obviously. One thing I would give to you is that we believe that DOR/ISL, which will be the first half of the gate is likely to be in fact the preferred switch option for many individuals who are going to be switched from their existing regimen which usually contains an InSTI, right?
And so DOR/ISL being the first in a new class of NRTTIs, which provides robust viral control, high barrier to resistance and the convenience and the tolerability and the DDI benefits that we've talked about, we believe that -- and that is not -- importantly, does not include an InSTI. We believe that DOR/ISL would actually be the preferred switched option for those individuals. And just as we mentioned earlier, 1 in 5 patients treated with the HIV regimen will be switched on an annual basis. So this gives you an indication of how we are thinking about the opportunity for the first out of the gate. But similarly, we are equally excited about the weekly options going forward.
And Luisa, it's Peter. So when we're asked about what's underappreciated at Merck, one of the subjects that we typically lead with is HIV. So when we look at consensus estimates, there's not a lot in models for our HIV pipeline and portfolio, and that's one of the reasons why we did this call today. We're very confident in the $5 billion-plus opportunity that we've spoken about, and we're not going to update that today. But we look forward to continuing to see progress across this program and hopefully today's event will help you understand why we're so confident.
Our next question comes from Courtney Breen with Bernstein.
This is Courtney. Just wanted to dig a little bit into the PrEP opportunity specifically. And one of the pieces that you've pointed out has been kind of the convenience and the ability to kind of dose a monthly oral at home. What we've learned with labeling update recently for YEZTUGO, the lenacapavir asset from Gilead is that another key component that requires doctor visits is actually testing to ensure that the patient doesn't have HIV.
And so for the injectables today for YEZTUGO with the longer dosing interval, of every six months. That's a six-month requirement. Whereas for DESCOVY, which is the daily oral, it's a three-monthly requirement for HIV testing to ensure that, that patient hasn't contracted the disease. Can you give us some context as to what we should expect for the monthly oral? Would this be a requirement for an HIV test every month, every three months or something even longer than that?
So it's Eliav, I'll turn it over in a second, but I'd just say we can't anticipate labeling. Obviously, that's something that we'll discuss with FDA. I'd point out that HIV testing can be done rather anonymously and also not necessarily through a visit to a hospital center. In terms of how we are doing it in the clinical front, I'll turn it to Liz for her comments.
Yes. Thanks, Eliav. In the trials, we are testing for HIV status monthly actually in this trial. But this is not necessarily what we expect the position to be when we bring this product forward for regulatory submission. I mean I think that every three month frequency that's associated with the daily options is something that we think is probably more realistic.
Right. And although, again, we can't speculate on what FDA would or other agencies would say. But considering the standard of care in the field, the ability to get HIV testing again, without having to visit a hospital center is relatively well established.
And I'll just add, the reason why we're checking HIV status monthly is to understand if we do see any infections when they happen. So this is really to enable us to collect the kind of data that we need to really fully characterize any infections that do occur in the treatment when participants are in treatment in this trial. So it's to answer a scientific question, but this is not what we expect in terms of how it would be used in the real world, how testing would be used.
Our next question comes from Geoff Meacham with Citibank.
I just have two. The first is in the treatment setting, I was curious how you guys think about resistance, especially as you develop doublets in HIV from what is three or four drug combos today and then how would you compare the resistance of ISL or ULO versus, say, an integrase or a capsid. And then a second question, more of a commercial one on PrEP. It's been mostly a U.S.-based market, but what do you think is a tipping point for Europe or Asia more broadly adopting PrEP commercially?
Right. So with the first one on resistance, let me turn it over to Liz.
Yes. Thank you. So I think when you think about resistance in the context of multidrug HIV regimens, the number of compounds is not really what's driving the emergence of resistance. And if you think about this historically, we went from three-drug regimens being standard to now more recently, two-drug regimens showing really excellent efficacy. And so what's really key, I think, based on the last 20 years that we've learned is that you need to have at least one agent with a really strong barrier to resistance to protect the regimen. And I think this is often that's behind the concept of an anchor agent in an HIV treatment regimen.
So with islatravir, one of the features that we -- that got us really excited about this molecule is the potency. So you need to make sure you've got adequate potency and levels with the doses that you pick. And then also the resistance profile, meaning that islatravir if you tested in vitro really takes a while to get resistance, associated mutations detected and the one that we do see is M184V, which is a fairly -- a relatively less problematic mutation.
So this is why it's important when we're looking at our data in our Phase III doravirine/islatravir trials that we saw no emergence of resistance to either islatravir or doravirine. And this is why the concept of islatravir anchoring our treatment regimen is one that we've been talking about because we see this molecule as really bringing the potency and barrier to resistance that you need for a drug to anchor a regimen, whether it's a two-drug regimen or a three-drug regimen.
Right. And I just would add that this is why we've chosen these two-drug classes together there. They're actually quite complementary. One of the interesting things for islatravir is that it actually-- some mutations that are -- that occur the older medicines actually potentiate the effect of islatravir and so that is an interesting biological plus that we see. In addition to that, I think that we've shown in our studies, which is actually the most important thing the lack of emergence of resistant.
And I'll turn it over to Chirfi to talk about the commercial elements.
Yes. So for PrEP outside of the U.S., you're quite right that today, the PrEP market is disproportionately a U.S. market. And so there are many reasons for that outside of the U.S. And I'm leaving aside the low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and so forth, where there's actually quite a bit of PrEP use in the daily form and then going forward in the long acting as well. So if you look at other high-income countries, there's still a lack of perception of risk by many individuals, lower awareness of PrEP and concerns for side effects and the stigma associated with daily use of PrEP.
And I think that by having Merck coming back with our global footprint, our commercial engine, we believe that we will actually have a -- make a meaningful difference in helping to develop the PrEP market in these other high-income countries.
We have done this in other therapeutic areas. We know how to reach consumers in many of those markets, we've done that. And we believe that, that engine would help us really enhance the level of awareness. And the once-monthly oral option will help address many of those barriers that I just talked about.
And finally, in terms of implementation, right? To have an option where you actually not -- you're not relying on going to the clinic, right, with all the challenges of having a nurse in the clinic in many of those countries, I think the monthly oral option will really help develop PrEP in those high-income countries outside of the U.S.
Our next question comes from Vamil Divan with Guggenheim.
So maybe one clinical and one commercial. One just on the ISL/ULO combination. Can you talk about how that would differentiate from ISL/LEN. I think both the weekly oral then obviously, you only own one and the other one shared with Gilead, but just curious from a clinical side, how you expect to differentiate there? And then maybe just in terms of on the commercial side, again, kind of going back to the $5 billion HIV pipeline potential that you've highlighted. Maybe can you break that down further as you think about the U.S. versus ex U.S. or treatment versus PrEP? Just kind of a little bit more of a sense of where the $5 billion or $5 billion plus will be coming from?
Let me take the clinical ones. So islatravir/ulonivirine, I think, will be -- so far both of these are very nice, are terrific. The islatravir and ulonivirine will be a very small tablet and a very favorable DDI profile of drug that will also have a treatment-naive indication. So you'll have a set of attributes that I think will be very important for some people, which is not to take away from the islatravir/lenacapavir which will have the potency of islatravir and the proven track record of lenacapavir. So I think that these are going to be complementary drugs that will have very, very important uptake in different segments of the population.
On the commercial side, I'll turn it to Chirfi.
Yes, we're not breaking down the $5 billion opportunity. We're equally excited about all four of these major innovations, and we see opportunity, meaningful opportunity for each one of them and cumulatively, we believe there will be greater than $5 billion. And as I mentioned earlier, we do anticipate significant opportunity outside of the U.S. as well based on our engine and our capabilities in those high income countries outside of the U.S.
Our next question comes from Terence Flynn with Morgan Stanley.
Great. Two for me. I guess on 8527, I noticed that you're taking the 11 mg dose forward, but it looks like 12 mg was studied, not a significant difference there, but just wondering why that decision was made. And then on MK-8239 plus LEN, I know you highlighted it early on, you didn't talk too much about it, but maybe just talk about the target profile there and timing of when we might see the Phase I data.
So I'll take the first one, and I'll ask Liz to talk about 8239. The -- we chose the 11-milligram dose because we have a very strict modeling program that looks at all the different factors that are necessary for patients to -- for individuals, I'm sorry, this is PrEP, for individuals to have control. We -- it could have been even lower dose. We had no issues with the 12-milligram dose either. But we went through a pretty rigorous algorithmic approach and chose the 11 milligram because it was a sweet spot for all the different attributes we wanted to get. It shows there's no issues for them going to 12 mg or anything like that. There was just -- is really just from a modeling point of view. Maybe you can tell us a little bit, Liz about the earlier development compounds.
Yes. So MK-85 -- sorry, MK-8239, which we are developing in collaboration with Gilead. So this is a molecule that's part of our partnership is in Phase I. The Phase I work is ongoing. So at this point, I don't have a time yet when we can share results from that study. But the intention here is this is an islatravir prodrug that we think could be suitable for as a long-acting injectable to be included as part of potentially a long-acting complete treatment regimen that's injectable. So that's the general concept behind the program, but it remains quite still early in development.
We're continuing to do our dosing and we're working through the details to make sure that the studies are done appropriately and with a sufficient rigor that regulatory authorities and both companies will feel comfortable to advance forward and look forward to presenting those data in due course.
Our next question comes from Daina Graybosch with Leerink Partners.
I wonder if you could talk about payers for a moment from your market research and of the attributes that have value, both for your treatment and PrEP around stigma and convenience and also DDI, which resonate across treatment and PrEP most with the payers?
Kathryn,-- maybe Kathryn, maybe you'd like to address that.
Yes, for the U.S.-specific situation, yes.
Sure. I mean, I can provide a perspective from a U.S. payer standpoint related to some of the attributes. I think one thing that's really important and that is recognized by payers within the U.S. market is that effective treatment and PrEP requires individualization and optimization of treatment based on people's individual needs.
And I think the importance of retaining choice and access to treatments will continue to be critical ultimately to achieve favorable clinical outcomes. Obviously, improved adherence, the ability to actually take and stay on treatment is an important attribute for payers, clinical efficacy and the ability to actually address unmet needs within our population of people living with HIV is also critically important as well.
No, what I would add is, as people get older on their meds and get older with their HIV. Obviously, you have to worry about co-morbid conditions. You have to worry about drug-drug interactions. And those are attributes that are also important. And this is where our portfolio overall anchored on the NRTTI class really is well differentiated and we believe that we will be well positioned for early payer access.
Our next question comes from Richard Wagner with Bank of America.
Richard Wagner from Bank of America on for Tim Anderson. During the presentation Merck cited market research Indicating a 1/3 preference for monthly oral regimen for PrEP. What can you say about the market demand for a once-weekly regimen I believe the target was described in the presentation as individuals with busier complicated lives and I wanted to get a better understanding of that?
And then related, clearly, it seems to me that Merck is confident that there would be adherence advantages for once weekly and once monthly compared to once daily. It's easier for me to see that for the once monthly but I would like to hear your thoughts on potential adherence advantages for once weekly orals.
Let me turn that to Chirfi.
Yes. Just to clarify the insights from the research, Richard. So we put in front of individuals who are patients and nonpatients, right? Options for treatment as well as for PrEP. And about 1/3 of those individuals on either category, right, those who have HIV and those who are at risk of contracting HIV they opted for 1/3 long-acting orals. So on the treatment side, this was a weekly treatment on the PrEP side, it was a monthly PrEP. Just to clarify, what I presented on the slide earlier.
Right. And I think that the -- that in terms of adherence, the idea here is, certainly, once daily is complicated once weekly allows you to say, right before the work week, I'm going to start or on the one day that I'm at home and not traveling or other kind of lifestyle issues.
It certainly is great to have 1/7 of the burden of a daily tablet. So I think that would be very useful. Obviously, we'll be monitoring this in the real world, but I think from the point of view of reducing the burden of adherence and HIV. And remember, you have to take these drugs every day like very, very fastidiously. It's not like cholesterol where you missed a couple of days here and there. It's not such a big deal. It's a big deal here. So having a once-weekly approach, I think, would be really quiet life-changing for patients.
If I may add one more point, Eliav, the other insight that we got from patients, these are patients, people who are living with HIV is that on the daily regimens, you're reminded everyday that you have HIV in your body, right? So to have the option of taking your pill, a small pill, maybe every Sunday or maybe whatever fits your lifestyle has an emotional benefit in addition to the convenience benefit as well for these individuals. So you're not really stressed out every day in case you happen to miss a pill or something.
Our next question comes from Steve Scala with TD Securities.
This is Chris on for Steve. We have two on MK-8527. First, for the Phase III trials sufficiently powered to show statistically superior efficacy to Truvada and is that the birth for success? And second, do you expect commercial launch for this asset before late 2028?
I'll ask Liz to talk about the Phase III.
Yes. So for the EXPrESSIVE trials, EXPrESSIVE-10 which is the study that's being conducted in women, that study is designed and powered to be a superiority trial. That is the primary hypothesis study.
And then on the commercial side?
So we are not providing a specific date for launch. I mean, obviously, we have to -- we are ready to go into Phase III, very excited about that, and then we'll just have to wait. We will obviously look forward to getting this to the finish line as quickly as possible, so we can bring it to people who want to be protected with this once monthly oral.
Yes. I'll add -- I mean these are event-driven trials, these Phase III studies. So we have estimates of how long it will take to complete these studies that are reflected in the posting, but it's possible it could take a little bit longer or less time even.
Our next question comes from Alex Hammond with Wolfe Research.
So on MK-8527, in the Phase II, we saw 1 SAE of spontaneous [indiscernible] of six weeks of gestation, that was considered related to drug. I know you mentioned in the EXPrESSIVE-10 trial that there'll [indiscernible] generation and pregnancy and lactation patients. So can you walk us through the risk benefit of treatment here?
Thanks,. I'll turn that over to Liz.
Yes. So the decision to allow women in EXPrESSIVE-10 who become pregnant to stay on MK-8527 if they choose to do so is based on the overall data from the program, which includes not just the clinical trial data, but also the nonclinical safety assessment in terms of safety to the [ embryotoxicity ] and juvenile safety as well. And overall, the data is very clean and supported the approach that we have -- we are taking with use in pregnancy.
These studies have been vetted through the regulatory authorities, and we look forward to getting the results and we're confident that we'll be able to get the proper safety profile. It's very important patient population to help with prevention of HIV infection.
Our next question comes from Umer Raffat with Evercore.
Thank you for all your transparency on the intracellular triphosphate exposures. And that's really where my question was as well. At the 6 mg dose, it looks like by a month -- by the end of month 1, the PBMC triphosphate levels are almost basically at that efficacy threshold of 03 picomolar. And I'm curious what percentage of the patients that drove that mean were already below that threshold?
And less so focused on the 6 mg dose and more so really asking about the 12 mg dose. What percentage of patients? I realize mean is above, but what percentage of patients are below the threshold. And secondly, since Chirfi is on, and I'm dying to ask him a question, Chirfi, in your view, what percentage of the market by the time you guys launch will be on orals, meaning not on an every four to every six-month long-acting injection?
So Umer, thank you. Let me take the first one. When we do our modeling work to look at the doses that we chose to go into Phase III studies, they -- as you know, mean is mean, there's people below people above. The 6-milligram dose was good, but we wanted to make sure that it would be covering all different weights, all different potential metabolic profiles and various circumstances, along with a little bit of forgiveness as well.
And when you add all of that together, and you -- we did through the -- both our safety and efficacy modeling the 11-milligram dose got us to the point where we were able to have high confidence that the vast, vast, vast majority would be well above the bottom threshold for what we anticipated to be efficacy.
So in that regard, the 6-milligram dose was pretty good, but we wanted to be able to not just go for me but also take the lower dose in the distribution of variability and make sure that, that lower 5% we're able to get above. And that's why we chose 11 mg -- 12 mg was just nearby, but it was -- 11 mg was just good enough for that. And you always want a little -- whatever dose you want the minimal best effective dose even if it's spooch lower than the highest dose we've tested. Chirfi?
Yes. So Umer, I assume your question is in regards to PrEP, correct? So assuming it's in regards to PrEP. So what we do know is that you have a number -- many, many individuals have needle phobia. That's the first consideration. The first insight that I wanted to highlight and reinforce and the implementation challenges having to go to a, clinic having to have a nurse inject these meds and so forth.
So we anticipate that by the time we come to market with MK-8527, there will still be a significant number of people risk of HIV infection who would be either on Truvada daily, right, daily PrEP or who would want to be on an oral long-acting option. So the opportunity will be meaningful when we do come to market.
Great. Thank you. Shirley, any further questions?
At this time, I'm showing no further questions.
Okay. Great. So I want to thank you all for your interest and time this morning. Appreciate you being with us. And please reach out to the IR team if you have any follow-up questions, and we look forward to connecting with you all soon. Thank you so much.
Thank you. And this does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. At this time, you may disconnect your lines.
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Merck & Co. — Special Call - Merck & Co., Inc.
Merck & Co. — Special Call - Merck & Co., Inc.
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Takeaway: Merck stellte auf dem IAS‑Investor Event seine HIV‑Strategie rund um NRTTI (nucleoside reverse transcriptase translocation inhibitor) in den Mittelpunkt. Fokus auf islatravir‑basierte Regime, einen monatlichen Oralen PrEP (Präexpositionsprophylaxe)‑Kandidaten MK‑8527 (11 mg) und zwei wöchentliche orale Behandlungsoptionen; DOR/ISL (doravirine/islatravir) NDA (New Drug Application) akzeptiert, PDUFA‑Datum (Prescription Drug User Fee Act) 28. April 2026.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Portfolio: Vier späte Programme: DOR/ISL (täglich), ISL/LEN (islatravir+lenacapavir, wöchentlich, Partner Gilead), ISL/ULO (islatravir+ulonivirine, wöchentlich, Merck‑eigene) und MK‑8527 (monatliche PrEP).
- Differenzierung: Two‑drug‑Ansätze ohne Integrase‑Inhibitor (InSTI) sollen DDI (Wechselwirkungen) und Toxizität reduzieren; Fokus auf hohe Resistenzbarriere und längere Dosierungsintervalle.
- Markt: Management nennt >$5 Mrd. nicht‑risikoadjustiertes Umsatzpotenzial für das späte HIV‑Portfolio; globale Zugangs‑/Gates‑Partnerschaft für EXPrESSIVE‑Studien.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Kurzfristig: DOR/ISL NDA angenommen mit PDUFA‑Datum 28.4.2026. MK‑8527‑Dose 11 mg ausgewählt; Phase‑III‑Programm (EXPrESSIVE‑10/11) startet unmittelbar, EXPrESSIVE‑10 als Überlegenheitsstudie gegen tägliches FTC/TDF (Truvada‑Comparator).
- Studienstand: ISLEND‑Phase‑III (ISL/LEN) Rekrutierung abgeschlossen; ISL/ULO Phase‑II gestartet; MK‑8527 Phase‑II‑Daten präsentiert, Pharmakokinetik unterstützt Monatsdosis.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Sicherheit: Zentrale Frage zu Lymphozyten‑Senken/lymphodepletion (Vergangenheitsproblematik bei islatravir); Management betont umfangreiche De‑Risking‑Daten und separates Safety‑Profil für MK‑8527.
- Wettbewerb & Implementierung: Konkurrenz zu Injektions‑Long‑Acting (z. B. lenacapavir) und Frage nach Test‑Intervallen; Merck hebt Nutzerpräferenz für monatliche orale Diskretion (≈1/3) und erwartet real‑world Testlösungen, nennt aber keine finale Label‑Position.
- Resistenz & Marktanteile: Analysten fragten nach Resistenzrisiken bei Zwei‑Drogen‑Regimen; Management verweist auf hohe Potenz/Barrier von islatravir und fehlende Treatment‑emergent‑Resistance in vorgestellten Studien; konkrete Markt‑Share‑Prognosen wurden vermieden.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Event bestätigt, dass Merck den HIV‑Bereich strategisch priorisiert und mehrere near‑term Katalysatoren liefert (PDUFA 28.4.2026; ISLEND‑ und EXPrESSIVE‑Readouts 2026/spätere Daten). Kommerzielles Upside ist substantiell, Risiken bleiben regulatorische Entscheidungen, Sicherheitsüberwachung (Lymphozyten) und starker Wettbewerb durch Injektionsoptionen.
Merck & Co. — Merck & Co., Inc., Verona Pharma plc - M&A Call
1. Management Discussion
Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, N.J., USA Investor Event announcing the acquisition of Verona Pharma Public Limited Company.
[Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Peter Dannenbaum, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.
Thank you, Ivy. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Merck's investor call highlighting the announced acquisition of Verona Pharma.
Our agenda this morning includes Rob Davis, Merck's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, who will lead off our presentation. Rob will be followed by Dr. Dean Li, President of Merck Research Laboratories; Jannie Oosthuizen, President, Human Health U.S.; and Caroline Litchfield, Chief Financial Officer. Q&A will follow the presentation.
Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that some of the statements that we make today may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are made based on the current beliefs of our company's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. If our underlying assumptions prove inaccurate or uncertainties materialize, actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. Our SEC filings, including Item 1A in the 2024 10-K, identify certain risk factors and cautionary statements that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from those projected in any of our forward-looking statements made this morning. Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, N.J., USA undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.
During today's call, a slide presentation will accompany our speakers' prepared remarks. These slides and our SEC filings are posted to the Investor Relations section of our company's website.
With that, I will turn the call over to Rob.
Thanks, Peter, and good morning, everyone. Merck is entering a period of rapid transformation. Our pipeline has expanded dramatically and continues to advance successfully. In recent weeks, we've announced a significant number of important data readouts and approvals, which reinforce our confidence in the strong progress we're making. We're building on past commercial successes and are now launching important new medicines and vaccines. In fact, we expect to benefit from approximately 20 additional new growth drivers in the coming years, almost all of which have blockbuster potential.
In short, our science-led strategy is working, and we are confident in our future. But as we've said before, our work is not finished, and we continue to assess science and value-driven business development opportunities with urgency and an eye toward driving near- and long-term growth and value creation.
So today, I'm very pleased to speak to you about the acquisition of Verona Pharma. We've tracked Verona's progress for a number of years, including the success they've had both clinically and now commercially, and we're impressed by what they've achieved to date and are very happy to bring this team to Merck and to help enable the realization of their vision. This transaction is another example of our company acting decisively when compelling science and value align, and we're confident in the benefits it will provide Merck and our shareholders.
Verona brings us Ohtuvayre, the first novel mechanism for inhaled maintenance treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or COPD, for adults in over 20 years. Ohtuvayre was successfully launched by Verona in 2024 and is experiencing very rapid uptake due to the substantial clinical benefit it provides patients suffering from COPD, a very large disease area. The acquisition of Verona is consistent with the business development strategy we've communicated and is based on the compelling science behind Ohtuvayre. The addition of Ohtuvayre strengthens and complements our cardiopulmonary portfolio and addresses an area of significant unmet medical need.
Ohtuvayre also provides us with another important building block as we transition to a more diversified future. We're very confident in its sustained growth trajectory and expect to achieve multibillion-dollar peak commercial potential, and it will add to our revenue growth in both the short and long term. We're excited to welcome the strong science and talented people of Verona to Merck and look forward to benefiting from their complementary skills and further contributions. Importantly, we're well positioned financially to complete this transaction while maintaining our ability to pursue additional business development opportunities. And we remain energized and highly focused on delivering innovative medicines and vaccines that address important unmet needs and sustaining our success over the long term.
We're now well on our way toward transitioning to a portfolio with a far more diversified set of future growth drivers. And the addition of Ohtuvayre is another step in positioning us to successfully navigate the KEYTRUDA LOE over time. We recognize there is more to do and remain committed to advancing our internal pipeline and supplementing it with additional science-led external innovation.
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Dean, who will speak more about the strength of the science and clinical data underpinning Ohtuvayre's profile.
Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. It's great to be here with you this morning to speak about this announcement.
Ohtuvayre represents a compelling scientific opportunity with the potential to address significant unmet need in COPD. It aligns well with our strategy of finding the best external science to complement our internal innovation and enhances our presence and expertise in cardiopulmonology.
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is a broad term used to describe a progressive respiratory condition characterized by restricted airflow and difficulty breathing. Emphysema and chronic bronchitis are the 2 most common types of COPD. Common symptoms of COPD include dyspnea, and ongoing cough or a cough that produces significant mucus wheezing, chest tightness and fatigue. It is the fourth leading cause of mortality globally. COPD remains a disease with significant unmet need. Despite a number of treatment options, many patients are persistently symptomatic, severely impacting their ability to accomplish regular daily tasks. In particular, patients with exacerbations are more likely to experience even worse outcomes with about half of these patients dying within 4 years of their first hospitalization for severe COPD exacerbations.
Ohtuvayre is the first inhaled therapy for the maintenance treatment of adults with COPD that combines bronchodilator and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory activities in one molecule. And the first novel inhaled mechanism for the maintenance treatment of COPD in over 20 years. Ohtuvayre is a selective dual inhibitor of phosphodiesterase 3 and 4, which results in increased levels of intracellular second messenger molecules, cyclic AMP and cyclic GMP, responsible for relaying signals from the outside to the inside of the cell. This mechanism of action leads to changes that relieve the symptom of COPD, including bronchodilation, reduced inflammation and enhanced ciliary function.
Ohtuvayre was evaluated in multiple Phase III studies as monotherapy or in addition to background therapies in patients with moderate-to-severe symptomatic COPD. Background therapies included concurrent LAMA, LABA or LABA and inhaled corticosteroid combinations. The primary endpoint was met in both the ENHANCE-1 and 2 trials, where Ohtuvayre led to an 87-milliliter and 94-milliliter change in baseline of forced expiratory volume in 1 second area under the curve over 12 hours, or FEV1. Consistent benefits were also demonstrated for peak FEV1 and morning trough FEV1 as well as across all subgroups. These results provide strong clinical validation for Ohtuvayre as a highly effective treatment for patients with moderate-to-severe symptomatic COPD.
In addition to improvements in lung function, a reduction in moderate or severe COPD exacerbations was demonstrated with Ohtuvayre versus placebo in both trials and confirmed in the prespecified pool analysis of the 2 trials. Importantly, the consistent benefit was shown across all examined subgroups. Ohtuvayre demonstrated a positive safety profile in clinical trials with low rates of adverse events versus placebo. AEs greater than 1% reported with Ohtuvayre and higher than placebo included back pain, hypertension, urinary tract infection and diarrhea. Importantly, the 48-week safety profile was similar to the 24-week profile. Overall, discontinuation rates due to adverse events were low. Several initiatives are underway to leverage Ohtuvayre's novel mechanism of action and expand its utility through additional indications, combination therapies and alternative formulations.
Today, we will speak to 2 promising opportunities in more detail. The potential expansion in non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis and the nebulized fixed-dose combination of Ohtuvayre plus glycopyrrolate, a muscarinic antagonist. A Phase II study is ongoing in patients with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis, a chronic disease marked by recurrent infection and progressive lung damage. Currently, there are no FDA-approved therapies specifically indicated for this condition. If successful, we believe this could represent an attractive indication expansion opportunity and support continued development.
In parallel, the development strategy includes investigating Ohtuvayre in a nebulized fixed-dose combination with glycopyrrolate, a LAMA therapy for the maintenance treatment of COPD. Ohtuvayre was used on top of LAMA therapy in the ENHANCE clinical trials and in vitro data support a strong synergistic effect in bronchial smooth muscle and isolated bronchi by combining these 2 mechanisms. Additionally, a fixed-dose combination would enable a more streamlined option for patients and for providers.
Finally, I'd also like to echo Rob's comment and highlight Verona's strong clinical achievements and the success they've had in advancing the science in this important disease area.
With that, I will turn the call over to Jannie, who will highlight Ohtuvayre's commercial opportunity in more detail.
Thank you, Dean, and good morning, everyone. As Dean noted, there remains a significant unmet need for patients with COPD. COPD is the fourth leading cause of global mortality with an estimated 3 million people dying each year due to the disease and significant costs to health care systems. Given the progressive nature of the disease, patients often need additional treatment to manage their condition. Over half of patients with COPD are symptomatic with persistent symptoms like dyspnea or shortness of breath, decreased activities and potentially exacerbations, which typically require intervention or hospitalization and often take over a month to recover from.
Common background therapies include 3 major classes of maintenance treatment, LAMA, LABA and inhaled corticosteroids, and goals for COPD treatment are to manage symptoms and reduce the risk of exacerbations. Ohtuvayre is the only product to combine bronchodilatory and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory properties in a single molecule and has the potential to redefine the maintenance treatment paradigm for patients with COPD. This is aligned with the medical community's goal to reduce steroid use.
Ohtuvayre was included in the 2025 Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease, or GOLD treatment guidelines. Since inclusion in the GOLD guidelines, Ohtuvayre is being prescribed across a wide range of patients for the maintenance of COPD. We see ample opportunity to expand use within this indicated population over time, continuing our track record of delivering novel science-driven solutions to patients.
The patient opportunity for Ohtuvayre is significant. In the U.S. alone, there are approximately 15 million people diagnosed with COPD, of which approximately 8.6 million are receiving some form of maintenance therapy. About 50% of those receiving maintenance treatment are persistently symptomatic, highlighting the need for additional treatment options. The U.S. launch is just beginning. Only a small fraction of these adult COPD patients are being treated with Ohtuvayre, which underscores the tremendous opportunity to positively impact more patients and drive growth for our company.
The Verona team is already making a meaningful impact by bringing this important medicine to patients and the launch is off to a great start. In its first 8 months on the market, Ohtuvayre has generated approximately $114 million in sales with the first quarter nearly doubling from the fourth quarter of 2024 to $71 million. All the underlying key launch metrics have been performing very well. New patient starts grew more than 25% in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, and total prescriptions increased to approximately 25,000. About 60% of dispensed prescriptions were refills, which will become increasingly important given the chronic nature of the disease. Approximately 50% of Ohtuvayre use to date has been in patients on triple background therapy, including those on inhaled corticosteroids.
Over time, we believe there's an opportunity for Ohtuvayre to be used earlier in the maintenance treatment paradigm given its benefit-risk profile. There has also been a strong growth in the depth and breadth of physician prescribers, reaching approximately 5,300 since launch with steady increases in the number of prescriptions written per prescriber. We believe the strength of our capabilities and scale will lead to further increases in all of these key metrics over time.
Now let me walk through the longer-term opportunity for Ohtuvayre. We are highly motivated and well positioned to maximize the potential of this first-in-class medicine. With Ohtuvayre's broad label for the maintenance treatment of adults with COPD and favorable benefit-risk profile, we believe it has the potential to become the preferred maintenance therapy for patients who are persistently symptomatic despite being on background therapy. We will work to accelerate the launch through increased promotional resources to expand customer reach. We expect continued strong uptake of Ohtuvayre by physicians and patients, thanks to its differentiated mechanism of action and clinical benefits. And this will be enabled by the favorable payer coverage that has been established.
The COPD therapy market is large and growing. In the U.S., it currently represents approximately $17 billion annually and is projected to reach approximately $27 billion by 2032. We believe that with increased promotional support and education of physicians and patients, Ohtuvayre has the potential to become a multibillion-dollar therapy into the mid-2030s. We are pleased to add this important therapy to complement our growing cardiopulmonary commercial footprint.
I will now turn the call over to Caroline.
Thank you, Jannie. Merck is in a strong financial position, allowing us to announce the acquisition of Verona, while retaining significant capacity to pursue our capital allocation priorities, including future business development, should additional attractive opportunities arise.
As Jannie highlighted, given the substantial unmet need in a large patient population and the significant benefit Ohtuvayre provides for patients, we believe there is a multibillion-dollar peak revenue potential and that it can be a meaningful driver of growth for Merck in the near term and into the mid-2030s. We are confident that this transaction has the potential to create value for patients and shareholders.
Turning to the financial details of the transaction. Merck has agreed to acquire all outstanding shares of Verona Pharma for $107 per ADS, a premium of 23% versus yesterday's closing share price and 39% versus the 60-day volume-weighted average price. This results in a total transaction value of approximately $10 billion, or $9.8 billion net of approximately $200 million of cash and investments and debt.
We have the flexibility to finance the transaction through a combination of cash on hand, commercial paper and new debt issuance, and we expect no impact to our credit rating. We anticipate the transaction will close in the fourth quarter of this year, subject to Verona shareholder approval and regulatory approvals and is sanctioned by the High Court of England and Wales.
We believe this transaction will be dilutive to non-GAAP EPS by approximately $0.16 in the first 12 months, representing costs associated with financing the transaction, partially offset by Ohtuvayre's performance.
We expect the transaction will result in the capitalization of most of the purchase price as an intangible asset for Ohtuvayre and amortized in our GAAP results over time.
Our balanced approach to capital allocation remains unchanged. We will use our strong balance sheet and growing cash flow to continue prioritizing investment in our rich portfolio and pipeline. We remain committed to funding and growing our dividend over time, and we preserve the ability within our strong investment-grade credit rating to pursue additional value-enhancing and innovation-driven business development transactions, which remains an important priority. Finally, we intend to continue share repurchases this year at the same pace that we've previously communicated.
Thank you for your interest. I'll now turn the call back to Peter.
Thank you, Caroline. Ivy, if you could please start the Q&A session.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Mohit Bansal from Wells Fargo.
2. Question Answer
Congratulations on the deal. My question is related to the expansion opportunities you talked about with the combination of LAMA as well as the bronchitis opportunity. One, how much value you are assigning to those opportunities? And number two, since COPD is also a disease in a little bit older individuals and Medicare could come in, could this fixed dose combination be an opportunity to actually have some sort of life cycle management as well for the product in normal term?
So Dean, why don't you maybe just speak to some of these areas he's mentioning, then we'll speak to the valuation.
Yes. I mean, what I would just say is it's -- we're interested in first that's next, and you're talking about what could be next. One is these combo nebulizers, you laid that out. Yes, that could be very important, not so much as a life cycle management, which is what I would leave Jannie to speak to, but it's actually I think what patients would need and want moving forward. There's also opportunities in relationship to indication expansion. And you've mentioned one of those indication expansion. And Verona had done other clinical signal finding and other indications. So we'll just have to see what those data look like.
And clearly, there is a possibility of thinking about changes in mode of delivery, not so much in nebulizers, but in others. And those are all things that are being considered by Verona and all things that we would need to learn from Verona, as we proceed with this merger and acquisition.
And then in terms of the valuation, the valuation is really driven by COPD. That said, we have incorporated the potential for some of the new indications using standard POS adjustments.
Next, we'll go to Carter Gould from Cantor.
Great. Congrats on the deal. Rob, you talked about desire to continue to use BD, but I guess specifically wanted to get your desire to do -- and appetite to do deals as big or bigger than Verona? It seems historically, you guys haven't really gone beyond this $10 billion to $12 billion range when we think about Acceleron, Prometheus, et cetera. The challenges post 2028 are pretty well appreciated. Is there a reluctance or sort of built-in governor that keeps you from looking at potentially larger deals?
Yes. No, Carter, I appreciate the question. As we've said in the past, our strategy is aimed at looking at where we see a great science opportunity like we have here bringing in a first-in-class new mechanism of action and where we see good science, strong science and it fits within our strategy and portfolio, if we can see value, we move. And as we've talked about in the past, the sweet spot we see is that $1 billion to $15 billion range. But as we've also consistently indicated, we're willing to go beyond that for the right opportunity. And we continue to be interested in looking at a range of opportunities from what are early stage assets, Phase I, Phase II as well as all the way up to commercialized assets like what we've done here. It always starts with the question of science, portfolio value, but we are not foreclosing any opportunities, and we are very interested in continuing to do further BD to augment what we have, which is a very strong internal pipeline we're going to accelerate.
Next, we'll go to Courtney Breen from Bernstein.
Fantastic. This one might be for Jannie, specifically really thinking about the scaling capability. I'm interested in what parameters that you expect from that will be able to really help with scaling and how much overlap there is with the current commercial business and the capabilities you're deploying for other assets? And should we be expecting that relative to consensus expectations for Verona's revenue trajectory right now that the scanning capability could accelerate those expectations or increase the peak expectations. So hopefully, you can give us some details there.
Yes. Thank you, Courtney. Yes, good question. So I think that is really something that we as Merck bring to this product in terms of adding our scale and commercial excellence behind Ohtuvayre. Obviously, we have an anchor product with WINREVAIR in this cardiopulmonology space. And it's not an exact overlap, but it's an area from which we can operate with strength both with commercial as well as with clinical capabilities moving forward.
In terms of where will we take this? I think as you've all seen, Verona has done a good job in terms of the launch trajectory in the first year, and we are certainly determined to continue with this momentum. So we will work hard to pick up on that momentum and continue to take it forward and then really expand our commercial footprint in terms of reaching more prescribers.
We've seen an inflection every time there's additional sales reps coming in that sales go up, obviously, as you reach a broader prescriber base, there's about 14,500 physicians prescribing in this space. So I think our scale brings a good ability to expand fairly rapidly into that broader prescriber base, educate and get Ohtuvayre to be added to existing background therapies, especially in those patients with persistent symptoms.
As I said earlier, this area is going to expand from about $17 billion today to $27 billion by 2032. So there's ample growth opportunity. Dean spoke to the unmet need that we can continue to address with this asset as well as further life cycle development. So I think there's an ample opportunity to build this out into a significant business and a huge impact for patients over time.
Maybe I just could add a little bit to that. Obviously, I also appreciate your question about consensus. And I would just say, obviously, we share the analysts excitement about the opportunity given the significant unmet need that remains for patients with COPD. And while there are other products that treat in the space, that have meaningful market shares, this is the only one with a differentiated mechanism, the dual mechanism that Dean spoke of, bringing nonsteroidal relief both -- on both the dilutory and anti-inflammatory spectrum. So that's very important.
As such, we continue to -- we're going to really do everything, as Jannie says, to maximize the penetration of this. I don't want to speak specifically to consensus, but I would just say, as Jannie has said and I said earlier, we are very confident in the opportunity of this being at least a multibillion-dollar product. And as we move forward, we'll determine what data best to share to give you a sense of our progress. But I just would leave you with, we really believe this has the potential of being the preferred drug for maintenance therapy for COPD patients based on that unique combination of bronchodilatory and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory effects I mentioned. So we're excited about this, and I think we're going to really be able to do good things.
Next, we'll go to Evan Seigerman from BMO Capital Markets.
Maybe walk me through some more details kind of on the potential commercial synergies you might have with your current respiratory franchise. Can you leverage the folks that you have marketing and helping with WINREVAIR? Do you really need any more primary care focused build out here?
Yes. No, good question. So I think that definitely is an anchor position to start from. That obviously is across pulmonology as well as cardiology. Most of the high prescribers are more focused on PAH specifically, but no doubt there's a lot of commercial synergy. And even if you look at how WINREVAIR is positioned, the positioning of WINREVAIR as a treatment is -- there's a lot of similarities with how we're bringing Ohtuvayre or how Ohtuvayre is coming to this market with a broad label that can be used across numerous -- different patient segments as they progress in their disease journey. So I think there's a lot of similar approaches in terms of positioning and commercially how we will go after the education and the adoption of this treatment.
You're right, I mean it will go beyond. The WINREVAIR, PAH community is a much smaller, much more concentrated rare disease base of prescribers, whereas with COPD, we're looking more at 14,500 prescribers in total that really makes up the bulk of prescriptions. So we believe as Merck, we can truly expand into that prescriber population. And we will continue to look at Dean to maybe speak to some of the pipeline opportunities as we look at other assets coming into this space that we will continue to be able to leverage forward both from a clinical as well as from a commercial perspective.
Yes. I'll just say we're focused on Ohtuvayre in COPD. We're talking about WINREVAIR and PAH, but we had MK-5475 that we're exploring in this space. We're exploring tulisokibart in this space and MK-2225 in this general space. So we believe that there will be ample possibilities of synergy, not just on the commercial side, but the clinical side, the medical affair side and in some sense, for many of these pulmonary more focused diseases from the research side.
And you asked about primary care like I wouldn't say this is exactly primary care like I think this is going to be a very efficient build-out in this space in terms of how we commercialize. So again, if you look at that 14,500, those are really pulmonologists as well as high respiratory condition treaters, and it's not really a true primary care place. So it's going to be, we believe, a very efficient build-out to commercialize this product.
Next, we'll go to Luisa Hector from Berenberg.
I wonder if you could say something more on timing? Why now? And then just perhaps some color on the ease of use of the nebulizer. It looks pretty straightforward, but it's twice a day. So what are you assuming for treatment persistency and perhaps compliance should we model to 12 months use twice a day?
Yes. So I'll just state when one looks at the data, and then I'll turn it to Jannie, what is really interesting to me is, I spoke about the sort of improvement in FEV1. But what's really interesting is that peak. That peak FEV1 when you look at it for that 2, 3 hours, I mean, that's substantial for our patient. And it's twice -- it's essentially twice a day that they feel like really differently. And that's the objective. But I believe that all the patient reported sort of feedback has justified that. And so I believe that if you look at the FEV1 curve, it might suggest to me that a patient who really wants to breathe and have more O2 in their air, will want to use this. But in terms of the commercial persistence in this, I'll turn it to Jannie.
Yes. No, that's a good question. I mean this is a medicine that is delivered through a jet nebulizer and patients take about 5 to 7 minutes, twice a day to deliver the drug. That is the only way to deliver this treatment mechanism, right, to patients. So -- and to Dean's point, patients really feel good. So -- and if you take into account that this is really a population with persistent symptoms, I think it's going to be that need to feel better that drives patients coming back to the nebulizing in the morning and potentially in the evening.
Having said that, we obviously take this in as one of the set of assumptions in terms of how we look at compliance in terms of our projections and forecasts. So it does feature. It could, by patient, vary from time to time depending on where they are in terms of their symptomatology. Some weeks, they might nebulize twice a day and maybe at times just once a day. So these are obviously -- this is a factor that we do take into our set of assumptions on how we look at our projections overall.
And then in terms of why now? First, I'd start with our company has business development as a top priority. So we continue to assess a number of different assets, companies and where value and the science aligns, we will act. Verona is one such company we have been following for some time. We're very excited about the science, the unmet medical need and the opportunity to add value for patients and shareholders with this transaction. So that's why now.
Next, we'll go to Trung Huynh from UBS.
Congratulations on the deal. So just a couple here. First on positioning. Do you see a shift to the use in potentially more moderate patients using this? So the patients with single bronchodilators, dual bronchodilators. Are you just -- could there be a guidelines in the future where they try to avoid using steroids? And then just on EU, how you're thinking about the regulatory path forward there, given the ENHANCE trials were done against placebo and EMA typically requires an active comparator, does your multibillion target include ex U.S.?
So let me take one part of that question, which is the question about steroids. So steroids are really important drugs in this space, but they have a number of adverse effects that is well accustomed to and know. And there has been a trend to see is there a different way to produce anti-inflammation without all the risks associated with corticosteroids. So there is a possibility that this could create that opportunity.
The other point that I would just emphasize is we can talk about FEV1, but I would point to the exacerbation data. And I think the exacerbation data is not head-to-head. And so one has to be a little bit careful of how I say what I'm about to say. But if you look at the point estimates of 36% and 43% reduction of chronic -- in terms of COPD exacerbation and you compare that to steroids or biologics or any other thing, you would sit there and go, that point estimate of 36%, 43% is quite a stark number in terms of what it can do to reduce chronic exacerbation. It's not head-to-head, but that -- those numbers are 1 that catch my eye.
Jannie?
Yes. And then, Trung, in terms of your question, could this product be used earlier? Absolutely. I mean, the label is very broad. This can be added to any background therapy for maintenance patients with uncontrolled disease or persistent symptoms. In fact, Verona has said that their current sales is coming about 50% from patients on triple therapy, which would be your more severe patients. So the other half is coming from patients earlier, right? So you could add this even in mild disease, there's still a number of patients with uncontrolled symptoms. So it could be added earlier on.
And again, when you add Ohtuvayre, you really add 2 effects. You add the bronchodilation as well as the anti-inflammatory activity, which has never been an option before in one product. So I think that's a powerful additional treatment for patients that are uncontrolled. And the guidelines, the GOLD guidelines already support this, right? So those guidelines are really in place. They are widely followed. So we believe as we move forward and specifically as physicians gain more experience, we see them starting to use it early and earlier for patients. So we are very confident that we're going to see an expansion into earlier use for Ohtuvayre.
And then in terms of the global opportunity. We will assess the potential filing and launch in the ex U.S. market, and our valuation is largely driven by the United States.
Next, we'll go to Umer Raffat from Evercore ISI.
I feel like a lot of the questions on the commercial side have been asked. So I want to focus on the duration of this asset for a second. Specifically, it looks like there's very clearly a legal bet being made here on the thermodynamically stable polymorph. And my question has 2 parts.
One, I'm curious, as part of the diligence process, did Merck go through all the iterations of the polymorphs that were generated as part of this existing composition, which is technically off patent already? I'm curious if you looked at those data sets on individual polymorphs, which presumably any generic would want to work around? And secondly, will your NPV math for $10 billion still work if the duration of IP is 6 to 7 years?
Yes, Umer, thanks for the question. Maybe I would just start by saying, as you think about the patents and as you point out, this is -- the key patent is the polymorph patent, which is around the -- really the suspension formulation of this molecule. I can tell you that we spent significant time and diligence, understanding all of the different approaches to how you could produce the polymorph whether or not there would be workarounds around the patents and the technical challenges that it would require.
And given Merck's history in this space, if you go back even to some of the assets we had at Schering, we have a lot of people in-house who actually understand the inhaled space quite well. And we are quite confident that the technical challenges of producing around the polymorph patent is -- are very high.
And so our belief that we have protection out to the mid-2030s both in terms of the patents themselves and the risk of a workaround regardless, we are very confident in our ability to protect out to the mid-2030s and that was very important in the decision to move forward. As it relates to the value, we have -- obviously, as we do in every deal, we look at a range of scenarios, we do a probabilized look at what we see as the probabilized value of the deal. And across all of those scenarios, we think at this price point, we are very well covered.
Next, we'll go to Chris Schott from JPMorgan.
Just wanted to come back to the line extension opportunities from here. So just maybe a 2-parter. First, on the non-CF indication, can you just talk about your confidence that you can see efficacy in the setting? And then my second question is just around an inhaler for the drug. I guess how difficult and how important is that in terms of the commercial profile of this versus the nebulizer?
Let me take the inhaler sort of thing. We think the inhaler may be a very important, something that the field will really want as Ohtuvayre itself advances at the nebulized for. So that's a place that I know Verona was interested in, and that's a place that we would be interested in. And as Rob has said, we have in-house expertise along that given the history of Merck and sharing cloud.
In terms of other indications, other indications that Verona has explored is, as we've said, COPD, it has been asthma, and they also have a Phase II with bronchiectasis, and we'll be eager to see the results on bronchiectasis as that come up -- comes out. And if that comes out as positive, it could be an important contribution to the field.
And the only thing I'd add to that is the value that we've ascribed is really based on the current treatment of a nebulizer. And so moving forward with new formulations would be upside.
Next, we'll go to Steve Scala from Cowen.
I'd like to also ask about the patents. So I'm wondering if you can identify products protected by polymorph patents that survived over the long term. It would seem to me that at best, Merck now has a 10-year patent overhang on which we probably will never get clarity or might there be such an event that could provide that clarity. And at worst, a franchise that doesn't last as long as it's needed. I appreciate that the sharing people have great expertise, but the competition is gaining ground as well. So how could we become more comfortable with this topic?
Well, it starts with -- I just would reiterate our confidence in this topic and the fact that we think the patent estate is strong around the polymorph. And the workarounds, everything we see would point to you have to go back to the Form 1, which is the polymorph that is patented that we have covered. And so I wouldn't say there's a specific clearing event I can point to, but there is ample examples of where products in this space -- in inhaled spaces have had long lives, even post the period of expiration of their own IP protections just given the fact that the complexity of making these forms of inhaled molecules is very, very complicated. This is not something easy to do. And so that's why as we assessed it, we move forward very confident on that and so I'd just reiterate that confidence.
I don't know, Dean, if you'd add anything, but we'll have to continue to watch it and educate all of you on this, but I can tell you, this is not something that is a strong concern for us.
Yes, I would just add. If we're talking about a polymorph in an oral medicine, that's one thing. But a polymorph with the characteristics required for inhalation that would require you to create the same pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics of what the lead molecule is, is not a simple task, especially if you're looking for a stable polymorph that can do that. And so yes, polymorphs are different than composition of matter, but this space of inhalation medicine is also different than other parts of medicine.
Next, we'll go to Akash Tewari from Jefferies.
So it looks like the deal premium for Verona is more modest than what I think we've seen historically. How much of that has been biotech CEOs kind of pragmatically recognizing the takeout multiple for a small molecule [indiscernible] and how do you think about modeling the Verona portfolio post the IRA negotiation.
Yes. You broke in and out a little bit, but I think I caught the question, which is how do we think about the premium we're paying and the fact that it could be that you have seen their stock run quite a bit over the last couple of months and how much of that has had take out premium in it. But just to give you kind of the facts of where we are. If you look at where we were versus yesterday's close, it was about a 23% premium. If you look at it -- and this is important, if you look at over the 60-day VWAP, it's about a 39% premium.
So in our sense, we feel like we are definitely paying a full and fair price Verona, which will enable a good return for the Verona shareholders, but also allows us to be able to have a reasonable return as well. And so I feel very good about where we are both in terms of the discipline this shows from our perspective, but the fact that there is a good return on the other side. I think it's a win-win for both sides as far as that relates. And then as it relates to the IRA...
We've modeled the impact starting 2034.
Next, we'll go to James Shin from Deutsche Bank.
I have one for Dean and one for Jannie. Dean, I appreciate Ohtuvayre's dual mechanism, the FEV1 improvement, steroid reduction. But DPP1s, IL-5s, they've also shown similar effects. So is there anything else aside from maybe the exacerbations that you pointed out that sets Ohtuvayre apart? And then Jannie, is it just a market that's so big that they can accommodate all these different mechanisms?
So you broke up a little bit. So I would just emphasize the mechanism of action of PD-3/4 is novel. It does that dual. I think the nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory part will become increasingly important in the field. It's already been important for the last 5, 10 years, as people have gone from systemic steroids to inhaled steroids and now trying to be more steroid sparing.
So I do believe that will be important. There is a broad label. When I -- when you gave some of the other examples, one of the things I would just highlight is this is a broad label. It is for all patients in relationship to subset analysis of COPD, not simply those who have high eosinophils. Some of the examples that I think I heard you say is in a subset of the COPD population. And if you look at the point estimate of this drug in a broad COPD, not just in a high eosinophil, that percentage competes extremely well and from a point estimate is actually higher than some of the other examples that you've given.
Jannie?
Yes. And I would just say to the question about penetration in the space. There's a lot of treatment options. I would say this is probably one of the most differentiated treatments that could be added to these patients. Rob spoke about it earlier that there are other treatments with far less differentiation that has captured significant share. So we believe this product with its dual mechanism could be added to any of the existing treatments and it brings an additional component, right, whether it's bronchodilation to the biologics or whether it's going after inflammation for any of the other bronchodilators, I think Ohtuvayre is uniquely positioned to add a significant benefit to any of the products that is being used.
And it could replace some of the early inhaled corticosteroid use, where we know there's some attempt to reduce that use. So I think this provides a different angle. Even in combination with biologics, this provides another angle of going after the inflammation, right? So I think Ohtuvayre is well positioned to be used broadly across the range of patients and treatment option combinations.
Our next question comes from Tim Anderson from Bank of America.
It's Richard Wagner, on for Tim Anderson. I wanted to return to the opportunity before inhaled steroids. Jannie had noted that Verona themselves have said that half of the use is in this segment. What has been initial feedback, either within your due diligence or communicated to you from Verona from physicians in this segment? And in terms of the implied sales acceleration, is this going to be the near-term push by Merck or rather would it focus on the more severe COPD patients, who might overlap more with the WINREVAIR prescribers?
Yes. That's a good question. And I'll answer it both in terms of what we've learned in diligence and also, I think what Verona has mentioned before is that when you look at it very early on the Tier 1 prescribers have adopted within the first 60 days very strongly in terms of adopting Ohtuvayre. And we've seen that once physicians start to use it in the more severe patients, which I think with any new medicine, is a logical place to start to figure out the risk-benefit ratio. But we've seen that once they start in the more severe patients, they quickly move to less severe and added to dual therapy as well.
So that gives us great confidence that there's going to be a strong position within the triple or the more severe population. But definitely, I think based on patient feedback, and I think Dean mentioned some of these patients really feel good after the nebulization for this treatment to be increasingly adopted in the earlier patients and alongside dual and maybe even single therapy for patients that still have persistent symptoms.
And our final question comes from Asad Haider from Goldman Sachs.
Congrats on the deal. A 2-parter from me. First, for Dean or Jannie, maybe just double-click a little bit further on how you're thinking about positioning in the non-CF indications, specifically with respect to Insmed's brensocatib, which could get approved there next month? And how should we be thinking about timing of that indication to reach the market?
And then with -- for Rob, just with respect to further BD with this deal now in the bag, where else across the Merck portfolio, do you now see opportunity to scale up or lean in?
I'll just take the first question. It's hard to talk about positioning until we have data, and we don't have data right now. So I don't want to speculate on that until we actually see clean data that we can present and review with the Verona team and with us and with the broader community.
Yes. And maybe just to add to that, I think [ Jannie ] said it earlier, but I'll just reinforce it. The valuation that drove this deal is COPD. We do have some assumptions of value associated with the bronchiectasis in the non-CF population. But by the time you add the probability of technical success or probability of success, so risk adjust those numbers, it's small to the total deal. So -- but it doesn't mean we're not excited about it, but I don't want that to be thought that, that is the driver of the deal, it was COPD. And then as it relates to further BD, to your point, we are going to continue to look with focus to continue to add to our portfolio consistent with what we've been doing.
The areas of focus, I would come back to what we always say, which is we first start with where do we see interesting science? So we never start with the therapeutic area. We start with where there's interesting science. And then we look at the strategy and the portfolio overlap, which takes into account the therapeutic areas. If you look at where there continues to be a compelling science, obviously, oncology, we intend to continue to be a leader in oncology, as we've said, with a broader and more diverse portfolio there well into the next decade. We see opportunities to continue to look there. Immunology continues to be a space as well. So it's pretty broad cardiometabolic. It's all the areas where we play today would be things we'd look at, but it's going to start with that we see the compelling science.
Great. Thanks, Asad, and thank you all for your time and interest today. As a reminder, we'll be hosting a call next Thursday, July 17, to highlight our HIV pipeline and opportunities. So hoping many of you will be on that call, and we look forward to talking to you then. Thank you very much.
Thank you all.
Thank you all. That concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your line, and have a great rest of your day.
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Merck & Co. — Merck & Co., Inc., Verona Pharma plc - M&A Call
Merck & Co. — Merck & Co., Inc., Verona Pharma plc - M&A Call
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Transaktion: Merck übernimmt Verona Pharma für $107 je ADS (~$10 Mrd. Bruttowert; ~$9,8 Mrd. netto), um Ohtuvayre in das Portfolio einzufügen.
- Strategie: Ziel ist Diversifizierung neben KEYTRUDA durch ein erstes-in-klasse Inhalat mit erheblichem kommerziellen Potenzial und beschleunigter Launch-Expansion.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Produkt: Ohtuvayre ist ein inhalatives PD-3/4 Dual-Inhibitor-Molekül (Bronchodilatation + nicht-steroidale Entzündungshemmung), erstmals neuer Wirkmechanismus für COPD in >20 Jahren.
- Kommerz: 8-Monats-Umsatz ~ $114 Mio.; Q1 ~ $71 Mio.; ~25.000 Verordnungen, ~5.300 verschreibende Ärzte; ~60% Wiederholabgaben; ~50% Einsatz bei Triple-Therapie.
- Lifecycle: Pipeline-Optionen: nicht-zystische Bronchiektasie (Phase II), nebulisierte Fixed‑Dose‑Kombi mit Glycopyrrolat, mögliche Inhalator‑Formulierungen als Upside.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Finanzen: Kaufpreisprämie 23% vs. Vortagesschluss / 39% vs. 60‑Tage VWAP; Finanzierung via Kassenmittel, Commercial Paper und Neuverschuldung; kein erwarteteter Rating‑Impact.
- Ergebniswirkung: Erwartete Non‑GAAP EPS‑Dilution von ≈$0,16 in den ersten 12 Monaten; größter Teil des Kaufpreises wird als immaterieller Vermögenswert bilanziert und über GAAP amortisiert.
- Timing & Schutz: Abschluss erwartet im 4. Quartal dieses Jahres vorbehaltlich Aktionärs- und Regulierungszustimmung; Management sieht Patent-/Formulierungs‑Schutz bis Mitte 2030er als plausibel.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Kommerz-Skalierung: Wie stark kann Merck Verona‑Launch durch Vertriebs‑ und Marketing‑Skalierung (Anbindung an WINREVAIR‑Team) beschleunigen? Management nennt breitere Ärztedefinition (~14.500 Prescriber) als Hebel.
- Lifecycle & Indikationen: Interesse an Indikationserweiterungen (Bronchiektasie) und Nebulizer‑Kombi; Datenlage bleibt entscheidend, Upside aber in Modellierung teilweise berücksichtigt.
- IP‑Risiko: Kritische Nachfragen zur Polymorph‑Patentlage; Merck berichtet umfangreiche Due‑Diligence und sieht technische Hürden für Workarounds, hält Schutz bis Mitte 2030er für realistisch.
📌 Bottom Line
- Fazit: Die Übernahme ist ein klarer, strategischer Zukauf zur Diversifizierung des Wachstumsprofils: Ohtuvayre liefert bereits kommerzielle Dynamik und bietet multibillionen‑potenzielles Upside, während Merck finanzielle Flexibilität und fortgesetzte Kapitalmaßnahmen (Dividende, Aktienrückkäufe) betont.
Merck & Co. — Goldman Sachs 46th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Let's get started. Very excited to welcome Merck to our next session, Rob Davis, Chairman and CEO; Dean Li, EVP and President of Merck Research Labs. Welcome, Rob and Dean.
Great. Thanks for having us.
So Rob, there's obviously a lot to talk about. There's been a lot of news flow over the last 24 hours that impacts Merck both directly and indirectly. But before we start double-clicking on some of that, maybe I can just hand it over to you to make some high-level comments.
Yes. No, happy to do, and thank you, and thank you for everyone in attendance and listening. Obviously, it's an interesting time in the broader world. But if you focus in on where we are at Merck, I can tell you, we are very excited about what we have in front of us. We're really in a period of transformation. You saw yesterday, we had 2 important announcements. We announced 2 of our 3 Phase III study readouts for enlicitide, our oral PCSK9 with really good results there. We received the approval, the FDA approval of clesrovimab, our RSV vaccine. And really, this is just the beginning of what's going to be a period of data readouts and product launches.
As you look forward now, we actually have nearly 20 new assets. We have 20 if you would include the ongoing launches of WINREVAIR and [indiscernible] that are both actually off to strong starts, nearly 20 additional launches of new assets coming over the next few years, which is really an exciting time. It's actually going to be more launches than we've really ever done in the company's history across a very broad and deep area of therapeutic focus and across multiple modalities. So it truly is a time of transformation and will be a time of growth as we move forward.
We see the potential for $50 billion plus of revenue, assuming, obviously, we're putting MFN aside for the moment out into the early to mid-2030s from a diversified set of therapeutic areas, cardiometabolic, immunology, ophthalmology, vaccines, HIV. So very exciting opportunity for the company looking forward. Obviously, a lot happening in the near term, I recognize in the macro environment.
But what we do and what I try to make sure the team realizes is if we stay focused on executing against the pipeline we have in front of us, executing on what we have in our hands, we have a path for success and growth and sustainability. We do that and everything else takes care of itself. That being said, I'm sure you'll want to talk about the interesting political times we're living in right now.
Well, I mean, I just feel like given the environment we're in, we probably have to just get that out of the way. So I will ask you to maybe -- you touched on it briefly, but give us your latest thoughts and framing of expectations on what's going on in the political environment, specifically with regard to the MFN EO. How have the conversations with the administration been going? What is the status? Does it feel like there's going to be any resolution near term? And then really, how is Merck thinking about the range of outcomes that could play out over the near term and the longer term?
So I would say, as it relates to the administration, we've been in ongoing very constructive dialogue with them across the whole set of topics really from the period of the transition of the new administration in up to current times. And I would characterize those conversations as very constructive. Obviously, they have a strong view of the agenda they want to drive. But what I found in my own dealings and from just watching the broader landscape of commentary that's out there is if you're willing to work with them to achieve those objectives, they're willing to listen and help find win-win solutions. So in that sense, I view that as constructive because at least there is a 2-way dialogue.
As it relates specifically to MFN, conversations are ongoing. No clarity yet on where it's going to go. Obviously, as Merck, I can tell you, we remain very open to working with the administration to finding a path to achieve what, frankly, on principle, we agree with. It starts with -- we agree that in the United States, we need to get the prices of drugs down. As Merck and as an industry, we continue to believe the best way to do that is to go after the fact that today, for every dollar that's spent on pharmaceuticals, only $0.49 roughly, less than half come to the innovator. $0.51 goes into the middle.
And the quickest way we believe you get prices down is you go after that because I would argue negotiating and distributing does not deserve 51% of the dollar when the innovator who takes all of the risk only gets $0.49. If we address that, you can both bring down price and do it in a way that preserves the economics for us to continue to innovate for the future. So that's something that we've communicated. And I think you saw that a little bit in the way the executive order was written where they talk about trying to do a direct-to-patient MFN model was effectively aimed at that same concept. And then we need to get prices up outside of the United States.
But the thing that we've tried to make sure everyone understands is as industry, we can only do so much. And you've seen as an industry, we've started to raise our voice. We've started to put pressure where we can to address this with governments around the world. But candidly, it's going to take government-to-government action if we're going to do this. And so we've been very clear to discuss with the administration, how can we use trade, how can we use the power of the U.S. government to help us achieve that objective that we all share of seeing a more balanced support for the cost of innovation, both in the United States and outside.
So those are the areas where we're focused. But how does that all translate into an actionable plan in the near term? There is still a lot of dialogue happening. So that's not as clear.
And I guess just maybe staying with that thread. Dean, you made some comments last week at the ASCO event when you got asked about MFN pricing. You talked about always launching in the home country first and then being thoughtful about how you launch in other countries as these policies take hold. Just unpack that a little bit for us.
Yes. I mean, I think what I was trying to sort of indicate is we have a great pipeline. We sort of laid out where that great pipeline is that we've diversified oncology significantly from KEYTRUDA and that we have things in different pockets, INT, RAS, ADCs. But I said that clinical data that we're looking for, some of it that we revealed, we always think about the United States first and launching in the United States first. And I said that as an American company who's launching in the United States, we will always launch first in our home country. And then we would need to be thoughtful with Rob and with Caroline as to how do we approach launching in other jurisdictions. We want our medicines to go everywhere, but we also recognize that there's pressures that become real with an MFN.
And I guess maybe just to finish on the external environment on the policy side. On tariffs, Rob, any updated views on timing, scope and magnitude? And I think I'm specifically interested in some of the vocabulary you've been using around sort of costs as you shift this KEYTRUDA IV manufacturing back into the U.S. That wasn't part of your initial intention given that KEYTRUDA is approaching LOE, but you've had to pivot because of the situation. So how should we be thinking about the cost associated with that pivot versus your initial plans? And what are the mitigation strategies?
Yes. Yes. So maybe just to step back for those who maybe -- haven't followed what we said in the past. If you look at where we are from a manufacturing strategy perspective, and this actually goes back to the times really coming out of the pandemic, but actually even back to 2018. So with the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, that took place and was effective at the beginning of '18, we shifted our own strategy at that time to start to bring more manufacturing into the United States. And since then, from 2018 to 2024, we spent over $12 billion doing that. So that's both for manufacturing of commercial products as well as manufacturing of clinical supply and the capital infrastructure around late-stage development. So that was a move already afoot with the notion that we needed to be more regionalized in our approach to mitigate risk.
And I would say the pandemic accelerated that because we recognize resilience in the supply chain is very important. And so we moved more aggressively with a notion of U.S. for U.S., Europe for Europe, Asia for Asia, but then cross-licensing everywhere we could so that we could always source from anywhere in the globe depending on what happened in any one region. So that was well underway. And then as we look today forward, we're going to be investing over $9 billion more going forward into continuing to bring back more of that in the U.S.
The thing on KEYTRUDA specifically is that as a result of the discussions of what's happened with the administration and the discussion of tariffs, we have made the decision to bring back manufacturing for KEYTRUDA into the United States. And we're doing it through a phased approach. In the short term, we've brought in inventory of finished goods to be able to satisfy in the near term as well as bringing in inventory of drug substance, so the intermediate. We have signed contract manufacturing agreements with companies in the United States. We already had some drug substance intermediate production in the U.S. already. So we're going to continue to leverage that and grow that and then leverage for a third-party contract manufacturer of drug product. Ultimately, we just announced that we broke ground on a facility in Delaware, which will be an all-purpose biologics facility that will have the capability to produce both drug product and drug substance of KEYTRUDA as both IV and subcu.
Now I think the point you're getting at is we are not moving the intellectual property with KEYTRUDA because, as you know, KEYTRUDA was actually discovered outside of the United States. It was discovered in Europe. And so the IP sits in Europe. And so there will be some tax leakage, but we think that is something we can manage overall and is built into our thinking as we go forward.
Okay. Helpful. Maybe we can then pivot to just the regulatory front. I have to start with this announcement last night that we got that HHS Secretary is removing 17 members of ACIP. And this announcement, unfortunately, comes right on the heels of your PDUFA and approval that came on time. And so I guess there's now uncertainty about is ACIP going to be around to rubber stamp this approval. So just high level, would you make of this announcement? What's the early framing there?
Well, I would say it's -- in many ways, it's too early to fully understand what this means. What we do know, if you look at the announcement that then came out again from HHS last night, they did say that the June meeting is going to happen. So you take it at its face that they've indicated there will be a meeting in June. And so we assume that will continue to be the case. How this plays out, we're going to have to see who are the individuals brought in to replace the current group. So a lot of questions yet to be answered. We need to see it play out.
But I pivot back to what I do know, which is the safety and efficacy of our vaccines, we are very confident in. If you look at clesrovimab, it was discussed at the April meeting, obviously, potentially a different group, was fairly noncontroversial. And if you look at the strength of the data we have around clesrovimab, we feel very good about it. So our expectation is that will be discussed in the June meeting and everything moves forward. But we'll see how it plays out.
Is there anything in your guidance, just remind us for based on clesrovimab getting approved this year?
Yes. So our guidance does assume and our plans have always assumed that we would have clesrovimab approved through the ACIP recommendation ahead of the RSV season, and that continues to be our working assumption.
Got it. Sticking with ACIP, I guess the other thing that's topical is GARDASIL. And at this point, I think going back to that April meeting, a lot of people are potentially expecting some kind of a recommendation for a lower dose, which obviously could create some headwind to U.S. GARDASIL sales. So just help us frame how Merck would adjust to potential outcomes here. And I would think it's probably hard to raise price in this environment?
So well, one, I think before we jump into the response, let's maybe update on where we see the situation. I maybe ask Dean just to speak to our view of the science of this, and then I can answer your question.
Yes. So there was data that the ACIP thought in relationship to considering a single dose, which has been tried out in different countries and more recently in Costa Rica. And in those studies, they're looking at immunogenicity for a short period of time, 3 years and only in the female population. And the reason why that's important is that at the same time that the CDC and the ACIP was considering that, we had long discussions with the FDA. And those discussions have happened under 2 administrations. And what is very clear and consistent by the FDA is you have one of the most effective vaccines to prevent cancer. In order for you to change the FDA label, you must -- you must study in males and females, recognizing in the U.S., HPV head and neck cancer is more prevalent than that of cervical cancer. You must do that. You cannot rely on immunogenicity. You must do disease.
And there were other things about how high the statistical bar was. That also recently became apparent. And I think that, that conversation became more robust as we shared that, and we've understood that many people at CDC and at the ACIP, the previous membership was not aware of such a strong opinion from the FDA that there is no data out there that would suggest or support a move to a single dose. But having said that, there is a discussion, and we'll see how that goes forward. But it tells you the strength of the data that the FDA requires to change a single dose.
Yes. So if you look at -- so one, we need to still see this play out. So we, by no means, have assumed there is a definitive outcome coming from that meeting. We have to see what happens with the full appreciation of all the data that Dean just talked about. But looking forward, the scenarios that could play out, it depends on what is the recommendation that comes. So for instance, if the recommendation from the CDC would be to seek counsel from your physician to determine what is best for you, either to follow the label or to consider an alternative not off-label dosing schedule, we think in that situation, it's a manageable situation for us because we'll have to see how many actually [indiscernible] do adopt what is the recommendation recognizing this will be one of the few times you're going to see a recommendation that is actually off-label. And so how does that manage in the system, we have to see.
If it's a stronger recommendation, that could have more of an impact. So we really need to see how these scenarios play out. But to your question, is there ability to get price? We continue to believe, if you look at the value of what GARDASIL gives you for cancer protection, it is highly cost effective. It is one of the most cost-effective treatments you could take. And we believe if you focus on the treatment for the prevention, not for the dose, there could be opportunities to get price, and we're working through what that would be.
Okay. That's very helpful, Rob. I guess before we leave GARDASIL, just very quickly, any update on China GARDASIL dynamics?
As you saw in the first quarter, it continues to be a soft market and one where we continue to see inventories elevated. So as we sit here today, we continue to prepare for when that market turns, and we continue to be very excited about the male opportunity with the new approvals we just got. We're the only company with an approval for male vaccination in that country. So we're prepared for it. We're going to be ready, but no expectations. We'll see what happens over time. It will be an upside surprise when it happens.
Got it. Okay. I have several other product level questions, but I want to zoom out again and maybe just talk a little bit about M&A and capital allocation. So Rob, you've talked in the past when you -- when framing BD, you've talked about $1 billion to $15 billion being the range with the willingness to potentially go higher and that you're also open to doing things that are commercialized.
One question that we continue to get from investors is that you've seen other companies start to act on BD, but Merck hasn't been that active recently. So I guess, what exactly is the holdup? Is it the science? Is it the bid-ask spreads? Is it the synergies? Just maybe some high-level framing.
Yes. I think it's context and there's a little bit of recency bias. If you look over the period of the last 4-plus years, actually, I think we've been the most active company in business development by a pretty fair margin in terms of number of deals and dollars spent. So what we're really focusing on is the short window of time here really just since the beginning of the year. And it is largely due to not a change in our urgency, not a change in our desire or strategy, purely just based on the timing of being able to identify opportunities and work through them to success assuming that we find an opportunity where the science aligns with our strategy and aligns with value, we're going to act.
And I'm confident you're going to see us continue to be very active. I would not focus on anything in this window where it seems like there's been fewer deals. It's just a matter of timing.
And I guess, in terms of just areas of interest, Dean, you've been talking about your excitement in immunology. And I think you've said you want to advance there with speed as you scan the external landscape. And I know you want to build around the TL1A, which is a foundational asset. So maybe just give us some updated thinking there on what you meant by those comments.
Yes. So when we said that we were going to expand into other therapeutic areas, I think everyone thought, okay, they're going to do vaccines, HIV, where we're going to advance. Cardiometabolic, we had a recent history. But I don't know that people knew that we were going to move our immuno-oncology to focus on immunology as we have nor did they think that we were going to go into ophthalmology.
In relationship to immunology, we believe that the TL1A class could be as important of a node as TNF and IL-23. We're focused on IBD. I believe we're the first ones who triggered a Phase III. And I think in the last month or so, there has been indications outside of inflammatory bowel disease that we're expanding with the TL1A. We also think that the TL1A will be important in terms of future bispecifics and orals as well. We also did a deal in relationship to T-cell engagers. I think some people read the T-cell engager for CD19 for a company that's diversifying their oncology into heme that the CD19 T-cell engager was for cancer. It is for cancer, but we're a company who has a CD19 and other assets that are T-cell engagers, and we're very focused on moving them in immunology.
So we are moving with speed in immunology. And I believe, for example, the TL1A readouts of the Phase III readouts, if you look, I think, come in the '28 sort of time frame. We're very excited about that movement in the pipeline.
Got it. And maybe before we leave the M&A topic, Robert, just given the external environment, do you see any scope for the reemergence of large transformative transactions in the industry?
I think there's always that possibility, but I think it's too early to say that that's where we're heading. We need to see how does the environment play itself out. I can tell you, as it relates to Merck, my firm belief and the belief of the team is that our best path forward is to continue the strategy we're under, which is focus on great science. If you bring great science that addresses an unmet need in an unambiguous way, people will always give value for that, and there will be a path for sustainability and for growth with that.
And we think, as I started in my introductory comments, we're as well positioned as anyone. We're on the cusp of moving into a new phase, which is a growth phase where we'll be launching more products than frankly, we've ever launched in a 5-year window. And I would include that in animal health as well, which is the whole another story I'm sure we're going to get to. So we're very focused on that and how do we add to that and continue to build upon that. That to me is the path for long-term success.
Let's go back to the product side. Let's talk about cardiometabolic. Obviously, very topical in the context of the oral PCSK9 data sets you put out yesterday. Maybe just talk through that a little bit. And specifically, like when are we going to see more data and just maybe unpack that a little bit?
Yes. So just to step back, we look at, especially in the United States, 70% of individuals aren't at their cholesterol goal, and that's triggering the plague of cardiovascular atherosclerotic disease. So we want to democratize the PCSK9 pathway. What we have said is that there are 3 important readouts, 2 of them have read out. And our ambition is to be the most potent LDL-cholesterol lowering pill. And I said that we want to be, in some sense, a biologic in a pill, so the LDL reduction [indiscernible] 50% range. We also want to be the most effective, and we're looking for cardiovascular outcomes that hopefully read out in the August, September time frame, not in 15 -- I'm sorry, in 2 years from now, not in the 15% range, but in the 20% range. What we've said is that we will package all 3 of those trials together. We will publish them, and we are hoping to present them at an important meeting. We've signaled towards the American Heart Association. So I think these 2 trials right now, along with the third that needs to read out, will probably be all packaged hopefully all by the time for American Heart Association.
Helpful. And then Dean, there's still this lingering debate about food-drug interaction and the fasting requirement relative to the AZN compound?
Yes. So the first thing I would do is when the data comes out, I think you'll see how it is and whether someone can just simply take it in the morning and can they stay on it and how tolerable they are. And we're very comfortable. People ask me how sure are you? I tell them, I had 3 trials. I'm 67% more sure now than I was previously. And we also believe this is something that you should take in the morning, right? It isn't like a hard and fast fasting rule. You should take it in the morning. And I think the other important thing is we think enlicitide will also be a great sort of combo strategy as you think about PCSK9, what are the other combinations. You start thinking about statins, you start thinking about Lp(a), and we're very confident that we will also go into those markets as well.
Got it. Let's stay with cardiometabolic and talk about WINREVAIR, very exciting new product cycle. Just maybe an update on the launch. And has there been any noticeable change in prescribing practices since the ZENITH data and the all-cause mortality benefit that you showed at each ACC?
Maybe I'll start with just what we're seeing with the launch and then Dean can comment. It's continuing to perform quite well, consistent with what I would say was our own high expectations. So everything is on track. As you look at what we're able to do, we continue to penetrate first into the sickest patients. So this is patients who are on prostacyclins or 3 regimens. But increasingly, and right now, that's a little less than 80% of the total of what we have today. We are increasingly seeing prescribing into the less sick patients. So we are starting to see that move and we feel good about that, that, that is going.
And if you look at what ZENITH has brought us broadly as well as just the continuing safety data we've seen, continuing readouts with SOTERIA and what we're seeing there and then building on, obviously, what we had with STELLAR is an appreciation that this drug has the ability to fundamentally change the course of a person facing pulmonary arterial hypertension, and it's leading to continued uptake consistent on trend with what we thought. We don't expect a trend -- but this is solidifying the trends we have.
And I guess, Dean, on the CADENCE study, just any update on the timing of the readout? And maybe just help frame for us what would be considered a positive outcome in that study.
So just to reframe the PAH market, the pulmonary arterial hypertension, just to remind sotatercept looks very different than the other mechanism of action. All the other mechanism of actions are vasodilators. This is one that's driven at the genetic cause of the disease. And the ZENITH trial with its more all-cause mortality, hospitalization and this, that's a standout. So we look the way that I think about sotatercept, if I have an analogy sort of thing, is it smells to me that sotatercept or WINREVAIR is a little bit like KEYTRUDA of PAH. And so we'll combine with lots of others.
What we're trying to do with the CADENCE study is expand it to a broader patient population that's outside of PAH, but still a very defined population. And is the defined population of those patients with heart failure who have not the genetics of a PAH, but have the physiology and the pathology of PAH. And we hope to see those readouts, I think, later on this year or early next year, which would then trigger whether or not we move to Phase III. So we'll see what those data are. And if it's successful, I think it will be an important advancement for PAH, PH and for WINREVAIR.
And just before we leave it, and I want to move to oncology, just the Insmed TPIP data this morning, from top line data at least, those results came in above sotatercept, and they're talking about the potential for TPIP to be chosen before sotatercept because of bleeding risk. Just any thoughts on that?
Well, I mean, I would just sit there and I say, when you look at the bleeding risk that's been laid out for STELLAR was 3% for ZENITH, I think it's 1% over placebo. So I would be careful of thinking about that, especially when you have data suggesting it can reduce mortality, hospitalization and this. So no one has the efficacy of us. And if one is going to talk about bleeding, one looks at ZENITH and a placebo adjusted of 1% in that patient population, that benefit/risk really slides over to the benefit.
But I do think the field of having other vasodilators and having innovations, that's great. I see a world where both of those drugs, those classes are going to be playing against each other. The vasodilators are also going generic. What I would say for WINREVAIR and sotatercept, I know of no other mechanism of action that's similar to ours that's in clinical trials right now. So we think that we have a strong position in PAH.
I mean they're very complementary.
All right. Let's talk about oncology. You guys hosted an ASCO event last week. And I think one of the things that was fascinating to see that you guys have one of the broadest ADC programs in the industry across a number of different assets. But there's -- obviously, you have these PD-1 VEGF bispecifics as well. So maybe just updated thoughts following recent developments. You've had Pfizer's 3SBio partnership. You've got data. You've got the Bristol BioNTech data. And I guess, how important is speed to market? Because I guess, from a time line perspective, Merck could be sort of behind some of these. But then you and I talk a little bit about potential acceleration strategies. So maybe unpack that a little bit, Dean.
Yes. So what we were trying to do at ASCO is to get people to realize, I mean, we have, I think, at this one moment, 60 registrational trials moving forward in oncology along across immuno-oncology with INT, with RAS trying to put it in first line in lung and a broad aspect of ADCs. And I don't know that people understood that as well. The critical thing for us is that many of those products we defined as being informed with what we would know about KEYTRUDA and how to combine them. And some of them were also informed by where KEYTRUDA didn't work and where we would put it. And the context of that created a situation where we think that the PD-1 VEGF story is an interesting story.
When people talk about their bull case or their bear case, they often say, well, would the PFS turn into OS. And often, they're talking about our clinical trials, which we've had like 10 to 12 of them. So the PD-1 VEGF, as we advance it, we think that, that PFS of 0.51 is interesting. We're moving it with speed. We're going to move it very fast.
And the question that I got out of ASCO is at what point will you start combining it with all your other assets? And will you make that trade-off? I said at this point, I'm not going to make that trade-off. I'm going to move fast on both. But believe you me, I have how many ADCs. I'm not going to slow down my first 2, first 3, but I have like 5, 6 that I might switch over to PD-1 VEGF should the signal. So we're going to move with speed in parallel. And at some point, we will have to make a decision because an oncology combination is important, when do we begin to combine with the novel agents at scale.
Helpful. And maybe just on subcu pembro, I guess there's been a lot of focus recently on the potential inclusion in IRA negotiations. So what's your position? And what would be the impact of subcu pembro if it's included in those negotiations.
Maybe start with the second part because I think that's probably the most important part, which is based on the assumptions we've made, which is to drive for the fastest adoption. So we obviously will price for access and adoption. Whether subcutaneous pembrolizumab is included in the IRA or not actually does not economically change our planning because we always had a scenario focused more on how to drive adoption with subcu.
But I will say, as I focus on what they're doing, what is being proposed by CMS, it's more of a concern of the precedent it sets because it takes what today is a very hard endpoint-driven way of thinking about when there's a combination is going to be affected by negotiation or not, which is look to how the FDA considers it when they do requirements for clinical studies and moves it to something that's much more subjective.
If you look at the language that CMS has proposed, they talk about, is it therapeutically active on the disease state. And I could say, well, how do you define therapeutically active? It just brings lack of clarity and unpredictability and lack of certainty, which as people who invest in long-dated studies, expensive studies, that predictability and certainty is important as a policy matter to drive for the right combinations. And that's really critical. If you think today, almost every major field is moving to combination therapy as a way to advance care for patients. I would hate to see that slow down or impeded.
And that's the main point we're trying to make to that precedent issue, but it's not an economic issue for us as we think about how to manage the adoption of subcu or the economics of what that means to our long-range plan.
Okay. That's very clear, Rob. And I guess we have about just over a minute left, and I do want to talk about Animal Health, and I know you probably do as well. I mean, look, by our math, this segment remains highly undervalued in Merck compared to publicly traded comps. It's a $6.5 billion revenue base that's growing low single digits to mid-single digits. So I guess, how do you bridge that disconnect?
Yes. Well, one, I would say we're very excited about the Animal Health business. And what you see in the Animal Health business is a story mirrored to our Human Health business. We're going to have more launches in the next 5 years in Animal Health than we've ever had. And it's going to cover both. In the companion animal space, we have a next-generation derm product coming. We have a long-acting Bravecto coming. We have a triple parasiticide coming. So all of those are coming in companion animal.
And then likewise, we have a whole suite of vaccines across really all of the categories on the production animal side, where we are the #1 market leader by far, and we have a whole suite of technology offerings coming. So our ability to drive above-market growth in that business is quite strong, and we've invested heavily behind it, and I feel very good about it.
The one thing I don't think is appreciated is how much of that story is driven by the operational synergy that exists between our Human Health R&D and our Animal Health R&D, both in terms of our ability to identify targets like our derm product, like our oncology product, we're actually launching, if you will, KEYTRUDA in animals. And all of those are based off of the human health business and the catalog of products we have there, some of which we've launched, some of which we haven't.
So it's both finding the targets, but then accelerating them to launch, leveraging some of the clinical work we do on the human health side. So I'm excited about the business. The synergies are real, and it's an important part of our total growth story.
Great. Well, we are just about out of time. Thank you very much. Very comprehensive discussion. Really appreciate your thoughts.
Thank you very much.
Thank you so much.
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Merck & Co. — Goldman Sachs 46th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
Merck & Co. — Goldman Sachs 46th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Merck positioniert sich als wachstumsorientiertes Unternehmen in einer "Launch-Phase": mehrere positive Phase‑III‑Readouts (oral PCSK9 enlicitide), FDA‑Zulassung für das RSV‑Vakzin clesrovimab und eine Pipeline mit fast 20 weiteren potenziellen Produktstarts in den nächsten Jahren.
📌 Strategische Highlights
- Pipeline-Fokus: Diversifikation weg von KEYTRUDA‑Zentrierung hin zu Kardiometabolik, Immunologie (TL1A), Ophthalmologie, HIV, Impfstoffe und breit aufgestellten ADCs/bi‑spezifischen Kandidaten.
- Produkteinführungen: Fast 20 Zusatzstarts geplant; WINREVAIR (sotatercept) und weitere Launches laufen bereits stark an und penetrieren zuerst die schwersten Patienten.
- Produktionsstrategie: Massive On‑shoring‑Investitionen (über $9 Mrd. geplant; u.a. neues Werk in Delaware) und kurzfristige US‑Kontrakte, speziell Rückverlagerung von KEYTRUDA‑Produktion wegen geopolitischer/Regulierungsrisiken.
🔎 Neue Informationen
- Studien-Update: Zwei von drei Phase‑III‑Readouts für enlicitide positiv; Outcome‑Studien (kardiovaskuläre Endpunkte) zielen auf ~20% Risikoreduktion und sollen binnen ~2 Jahren weitergereicht/geöffnet werden.
- Zulassung: FDA‑Zulassung für clesrovimab bestätigt; Management erwartet ACIP‑Diskussion im Juni und hat die Markterwartung für die RSV‑Saison in die Planung aufgenommen.
- Guidance‑Impact: Keine explizite Änderung der Finanz‑Guidance im Transcript; clesrovimab wird aber in Planannahmen berücksichtigt.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Politik/MFN: MFN (Most‑Favored‑Nation)‑Executive‑Order bleibt unsicher; Merck führt konstruktive Gespräche mit der Administration, sieht aber erhebliche politische/Handelsoptionen als nötig an.
- GARDASIL‑Risiko: Diskussion um Single‑Dose‑Recommendation bei ACIP (Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices) könnte US‑Absatz belasten; FDA sieht derzeit hohe Hürden für Label‑Änderung.
- Manufacturing & IRA: Rückverlagerung von KEYTRUDA‑Fertigung in die USA als Reaktion auf Tarif-/Policy‑Risiken; Bedenken zum Präzedenzfall, falls subkutane Pembrolizumab in Verhandlungen (IRA, Inflation Reduction Act) aufgenommen würde.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Operativ starkes Momentum durch positive klinische Readouts und Zulassungen; langfristiges Wachstumspotenzial (Management nennt ein mögliches >$50 Mrd. Szenario bis frühe‑mittlere 2030er) trifft auf signifikante Politik‑ und Regulierungssorgen (MFN, ACIP, Preisregulierung). Aktienstory bleibt execution‑abhängig: Pipeline‑Deliverables vs. regulatorische Risiken.
Finanzdaten von Merck & Co.
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Basis
| Mär '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 65.768 65.768 |
3 %
3 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 14.423 14.423 |
2 %
2 %
22 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 51.345 51.345 |
4 %
4 %
78 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 10.844 10.844 |
0 %
0 %
16 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | 23.801 23.801 |
62 %
62 %
36 %
|
|
| EBITDA | 22.951 22.951 |
19 %
19 %
35 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 6.251 6.251 |
35 %
35 %
10 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 16.700 16.700 |
30 %
30 %
25 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 8.935 8.935 |
49 %
49 %
14 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen USD.
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Merck & Co. Aktie News
Firmenprofil
Merck & Co., Inc. engagiert sich in der Bereitstellung von Gesundheitslösungen durch seine verschreibungspflichtigen Medikamente, Impfstoffe, biologischen Therapien, Tiergesundheits- und Verbraucherpflegeprodukte. Das Unternehmen ist in den folgenden Segmenten tätig: Pharmazeutika, Tiergesundheit, Gesundheitsdienste und Allianzen. Das Segment Pharmazeutika umfasst pharmazeutische und Impfstoffprodukte für die menschliche Gesundheit. Das Segment Tiergesundheit erforscht, entwickelt, produziert und vermarktet Tiergesundheitsprodukte, wie Pharmazeutika und Impfstoffe, zur Vorbeugung, Behandlung und Kontrolle von Krankheiten bei Nutztieren und Haustierarten. Das Segment Healthcare Services bietet Dienstleistungen und Lösungen an, die sich auf Engagement, Gesundheitsanalysen und klinische Dienstleistungen konzentrieren, um den Wert der Versorgung von Patienten zu verbessern. Das Segment Allianzen umfasst Ergebnisse aus der Beziehung des Unternehmens mit AstraZeneca LP im Zusammenhang mit dem Verkauf von Nexium und Prilosec. Das Unternehmen wurde 1891 gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Kenilworth, NJ.
aktien.guide Basis
| Hauptsitz | USA |
| CEO | Mr. Davis |
| Mitarbeiter | 74.000 |
| Gegründet | 1891 |
| Webseite | www.merck.com |


