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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 2,10 Mrd. kr | Umsatz (TTM) = 404,48 Mio. kr
Marktkapitalisierung = 2,10 Mrd. kr | Umsatz erwartet = 614,90 Mio. kr
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 3,07 Mrd. kr | Umsatz (TTM) = 404,48 Mio. kr
Enterprise Value = 3,07 Mrd. kr | Umsatz erwartet = 614,90 Mio. kr
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
Dividendenwachstum 5J (CAGR)🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Lundin Energy Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
9 Analysten haben eine Lundin Energy Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
9 Analysten haben eine Lundin Energy Prognose abgegeben:
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Lundin Energy — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Hi, everyone. Welcome to Orron Energy's Q2 presentation. Joining us today, we have our CEO, Daniel Fitzgerald; and CFO, Espen Hennie, who will run us through the presentation and the latest developments of Orron Energy.
At the end of the presentation, we will have a Q&A session. So feel free to send the questions as we go along. We will collect and go through them at the end.
With that, I'd like to hand over to Daniel Fitzgerald to start off this presentation.
Thank you, Jenny, and good afternoon, and welcome to our second quarter results presentation, where Espen and I will give an overview of the performance for the first half of the year and then also the strategic direction for the company, including the Cloudberry transaction, which we announced during Q2.
I wanted to start today with a quick overview of Orron Energy, where we stand today and then most importantly, where the valuation sits for the company today. And I think that the title on this slide really tells a massive story around the compelling value proposition. And we don't need to go far beyond the transaction with Cloudberry to understand where that value sits and why that value sits within Orron Energy. And for a long period of time, almost since inception of the company, we have traded with a discount to the underlying value of our assets.
If I look first at the Cloudberry transaction, which we will touch on in the coming slides in a bit more detail, that transaction will translate into a 27% ownership in Cloudberry, where we have divested a large portion of our Nordic assets, with the exclusion of Karskruv. And in return, we will receive shares and cash in Cloudberry. When I look at the value of that share today, so that 27% shareholding, it equates to around SEK 5.7 per share in Orron Energy. And today, we're trading close to SEK 7 a share.
When I look over to the right-hand side, you see very clearly the value of this shareholding in Cloudberry versus the value of our market capitalization. And today, the value of that share based on closing prices on Monday, was EUR 149 million against a market cap of EUR 188 million. And so we believe that the assets we've sold to Cloudberry creates a fantastic company in Cloudberry, which we'll touch on. But even more so, the remaining value inside Orron Energy, implied value as per our market cap today is only EUR 39 million. And when I look over to the rest of the slide on the left-hand side, I take Karskruv, which is a good asset in the SE4 price region in Southern Sweden.
If we look at an electricity price between EUR 70 and EUR 85 per megawatt hour, which we've achieved EUR 70 year-to-date. The futures price for rest of the year is EUR 85, and we expect that to continue into 2027. We are going to generate between EUR 12 million and EUR 16 million of EBITDA. So even the 3 years of EBITDA equals the valuation of the remaining company with no value on the rest of it.
When I look at where assets trade today, we're more like 10x EBITDA. We've seen transactions in the market closer to that level. And so the true value of Karskruv is significantly higher than what the remaining value within Orron Energy is.
We also then don't need any value for the greenfield business to make up our market cap beyond Karskruv. The greenfield business, it's starting to get into its regular monetization phase, and you'll see a little bit more today on the data center side, where we have some really strong upsides from that business, and we're going to be starting to see that value coming in. And so we see a large benefit not only from Karskruv, but also from the greenfield business compared to where the implied value of the remaining company sits.
And the final point, which is also really important, is, with the Cloudberry transaction, we delever the business. And that means we sit with a clean balance sheet. We have a EUR 50 million facility sitting behind it and plenty of liquidity to go and grow the business. Should we need more debt capacity, there is more debt capacity within the business, and we have the means of capitalizing the greenfield business should we wish to.
So if I put all of that together simply, I think the mark-to-market on Cloudberry really underpins the core of the value in the company. On top of that, we have some fantastic upsides well beyond where the market cap sits today, which does make Orron Energy a very compelling value proposition as it stands today.
If we spend a few minutes on the Cloudberry transaction, this really is a formative transaction, both for Cloudberry and for Orron Energy. We have a lot of value within our assets in the Nordics, and we have a lot of -- we had a lot of ambition with them, which doesn't stop on the back of this transaction.
We have taken a view for a long period of time that with the increasing complexity in the market, the energy systems, the penetration of renewables, the need to be active in the ancillary markets, balancing and more diversified, we need a larger scale company. And we've been working down that pathway within Orron Energy for a long period, as had Cloudberry. And now is the right time to combine those 2 businesses into what is one of the leading Nordic IPPs, Nordic-focused IPPs, and the largest listed one focused solely on the Nordics.
We then blend both asset bases and teams, which are very complementary, which gives you a pan-Nordic platform across all of the technologies with the strengths and competence of both Cloudberry and Orron Energy together. And I'm really excited about what this platform is going to be able to deliver in the coming years.
Orron Energy will remain a 27% owner in Cloudberry. We will take positions on the Board and be very active in their journey going forward. And we see this platform as a very, very strong platform to go and create value, to consolidate and grow the business across the Nordics with the local competence that needs to be successful. And so upon closing of the transaction, we see a very bright future, and we intend to be a long-term holder of the shares in Cloudberry as part of that.
When I look at the consideration for the transaction, so on the left, we start with the assets that we sold, which is the entirety of our Nordic business, excluding the Karskruv asset. With that comes the strength of our team and the competence of our team to blend into Cloudberry's competence and teams. It gives a slightly different flavor and geographical focus to what Cloudberry has. So it's very, very complementary.
When I look at the consideration for that transaction, first and foremost, we will retain a 27% shareholding in Cloudberry and become the largest owner in Cloudberry. And we sit alongside a range of other large and strategic shareholders within that business who share the same ambition to go and grow this company to a much larger size and scale.
Secondly, we'll have the repayment of nearly all of our net debt position. And so that will come at closing of the transaction, and we have a small payment for the cash remaining in the business. And so when I look at that same picture on the bottom of this slide, we end up with a transaction valuation of around -- or value of the shares of around EUR 149 million against the market cap within Orron Energy of EUR 188 million, which is really compelling when you look at the future value of our business.
Completion, we expect in Q3 of this year. So we have already received some of the regulatory approvals needed in Sweden, and we have also yesterday approved the elements necessary at the Cloudberry EGM. And so we have a few more elements to see through the course of August, and I expect this to close before the end of Q3 once we fulfill all of the outstanding conditions.
Turning more inside Orron Energy's business, looking at the first 6 months of this year. And you will have noted in our external reporting now that we talk about the continuing operations and the discontinued operations. The continuing operations are those elements that remain within Orron Energy and exclude the elements that have been sold to Cloudberry.
Within our reporting of the continuing business, we also exclude the shareholding in Cloudberry from the performance of that in the historical accounts, and we'll account for that going forward in a slightly different way, which Espen will touch on.
Year-to-date power generation of 113 gigawatt hours, leading to revenues, including project sales, of around EUR 13 million and EBITDA of just shy of EUR 3 million. Important to note that our EBITDA also includes around EUR 4 million worth of spend on the Sudan case, which now drops away almost to 0 on the back of the conclusion of the District Court trial in May.
And so our financial strength as a company, not only will we have a clean balance sheet at closing with 0 net debt on it, we will have the reduction in the Sudan costs with a verdict expected end of the year and then strong cash generation, both from Karskruv and the underlying project businesses.
For the Sudan case, we obviously finished that in May. Our view all along, and still remains today, is that we will see a full acquittal of both the defendants and a dropping of the forfeiture related to the court case. And so in December of this year, we expect a verdict, as communicated by the judge in the case. And we've also submitted to the court a historical claim for costs incurred for the defense of the individuals and company. And so this amounts to around EUR 76 million, and we expect -- once we have the judgment in December, not only do we expect an acquittal of the individuals, a dropping of the forfeiture, but we also expect an element of a reimbursement of historical costs related to the case. And so that really is an important milestone for the company, and we look forward to the outcome from that verdict and have no doubt in what the final judgment will be in the Sudan case.
Looking at Karskruv performance. We're in line with where we expect to be with Karskruv. So year-to-date production of around 113, and we expect full year production somewhere around the 240, 250 gigawatt hours for this year, including weather impacts, price curtailment, ancillary services, and availability warranties.
Year-to-date, we have an achieved price on Karskruv of EUR 70 a megawatt hour, and that has underpinned around half of our cash generation for the first half of this year. It really is a strong asset. It's in the SE4 price region, relatively new asset brought online in 2023, and provides significant cash flow for the remaining business to be able to continue to invest in the greenfield development portfolio and also growth for the business. So Karskruv is a core asset.
We intend to use that cash flow and the asset value to then continue to grow our business longer-term. We're very close to investment decision on a battery project at Karskruv, which will add further flexibility into the Karskruv asset and increase revenues at the same time.
Stepping now into our development business. I think it's clear to say that we're not only delivering on the solar and battery side of that business, we've also been building in the background for the last 2 or 3 years a data center business out of the same competence that comes from our renewable portfolio. And so as it stands today, we have around 12 gigawatts worth of projects, where around 8 gigawatts are sitting in the solar and battery domain and 4 gigawatts in the data center domain.
As we see the evolution of grids, AI, data center markets, renewable penetration across Europe, we see a convergence of these elements all into one space. And I think our ability to go and secure land, secure grid, secure permits, and deliver projects is really important when we look on both sides of this equation, whether it's from the renewable side, the power side, the grid side, or the data center side.
There's no doubt today that data centers have a massive value in the market, but that value only exists if you're able to get power to these sites. And I think bringing our renewable competence alongside the data center businesses that we have evolved over the last period gives us a really strong platform. When I look towards grid operators, towards grid reform, towards investors, we can tick all the boxes across that portfolio by providing not only stand-alone power solutions from the grid, which is now congested globally, but also the ability to provide renewable energy, to provide storage into those data centers, and to essentially provide a campus or an energy hub that allows you to have both production, storage, and demand through a data center on the one site.
And so we will see the German platform is now in the market with a range of these energy hubs, and we'll start to see the value of those coming forward alongside the traditional stand-alone data center opportunities. And our teams across certainly U.K. and France plus Germany have the same skills to provide projects for data centers as we need for renewable power and storage. And so it is really complementary, and I'm excited to see how that will evolve over the coming weeks and months as we start to step more into the market with some of these newer opportunities. It would be remiss of us not to focus a small amount on our data center business.
If I look at the market today, the growth in AI and the growth in the need for computing power and data centers is massive. And with that drives a valuation on data centers that's beyond where we've seen in the markets historically and also in the renewable space. And we're focusing on data centers with 3 kind of core themes, all centered around power and all centered around our core competence.
So firstly, we need the land for the data centers. We need the permits, et cetera. But we have the ability to provide power in 3 different means. Firstly, through a traditional site, which is a stand-alone grid-connected data center. Secondly, through private wire, either through projects that we've generated ourselves or through third-party connections because we understand that element of power delivery to site, and we have many means of doing that. And then thirdly, by providing energy hubs, which is essentially that whole package in one: storage, generation, grid connection, and data centers. And today, we have a large portfolio of around 4 gigawatts.
In the U.K., we have 1.1 gigawatts are ready to permit, of which 300 megawatts is in an active sales process. In Germany, we have energy hubs where we have co-located batteries storage -- sorry, battery, solar, and data centers behind the meter, and we're also in the market with a range of those in Germany. So this really is an exciting platform.
I think we will ensure that we continue to grow this, and it has a massive value when I look across its peer group that's either in the listed or private domain in the transactions we've seen happening. And so we will be looking at how to best realize the value from this portfolio going forward, whether that is to capitalize the portfolio, take projects further, whether it's to monetize a portion of the portfolio, or potentially to offer a spinout or a listing separately of our data center and renewable growth platforms. So we'll spend more time on that in the second half of this year, and we'll come back to the market when we're ready to share. But really, really exciting to see some of these projects in the market already.
And then stepping into the sales side of this, which is a really important element of this business. It's great to get the projects maturing, to get the grid and land secured and move into permitting, but we really also need to be monetizing this portfolio. So as of today, we have a range of sold projects totaling around 260 megawatts, EUR 15 million. And then if we step into the sales processes that are ongoing now, we have a suite of solar projects, 3 solar projects in the U.K., 1.8 gigawatts in the market. And that portfolio is awaiting the final grid connection dates and details, which is expected in Q4 or early Q1 next year. And so we may see that process -- depending on the values on the table, we'll see that process continuing through the second half of this year. The second process in the U.K. is a 300-megawatt data center site, and that's launched, and we'll see more discussion around that in Q3 of this year.
Exciting portfolio in Germany is the launch of around 3 gigawatts of energy hubs. Quite early stage, but have the ability to provide renewable power, storage, and data centers all behind the meter. And given that combination, we score very, very highly in the recent grid reform in Germany, which gives us accelerated and preferential access to the grid. And so those projects now are in the market, and we'll see where the opportunity sits in the second half of this year. And that's backed up by further projects totaling around 12 gigawatts across that entire platform.
And so with that, I think 3 key pillars that we focus on in the business now, shareholding in Cloudberry and growing the value of that, the value of Karskruv, and then the value of this development portfolio. And I think it becomes a lot easier for investors to understand the true value within Orron Energy, and we can now clearly see the misplacement of that value relative to where our market cap is.
So with that, I'll pass over to Espen to run through the financials for the second quarter.
Thank you, Daniel, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll go through the financials for Q2. Obviously, this quarter is a bit different from the -- compared to the previous quarters due to the Cloudberry transaction. And as Dan already has mentioned, all the part of the business that will be divested to Cloudberry as part of the transaction is now classified as discontinued operations. So the focus on this slide and the coming slides is then now on the continuing operations, which consists of the Karskruv wind farm and the European greenfield platform.
If you want further information on discontinued operations, then I would refer you to our quarterly financial report. And also going forward, post-closing, we will report our net share of the Cloudberry profit into our financial statements according to the equity method of accounting.
Looking then at Q2, strong quarterly revenues, EUR 6.2 million for the quarter, which is backed by a very solid performance from project sales, EUR 3.7 million of project sales in Q2, which is a record for the company. So our Q2 revenues then almost at par with Q1, where we saw record pricing in the Nordic region.
EBITDA for the quarter, EUR 1.1 million. And as Dan mentioned, it's important to keep in mind that this includes a cost of EUR 1.8 million related to the Sudan legal case. And going forward, our costs related to that will be a fraction of what we had in the quarters behind us, since that trial ended in May, and we now expect a verdict late this year during December.
Power generation, 46 gigawatt hours, and achieved price of EUR 56 per megawatt hour. We have -- we will go into that in a bit more detail at a later slide when we look at the breakdown of the achieved price for Karskruv.
Net debt at the end of Q2 was -- if we include the discontinued operations, was EUR 91 million. And as I have said before, at closing of the Cloudberry transaction, we expect to have a net debt position close to 0, as the EUR 93 million of debt as of year-end '25 will be assumed or settled by Cloudberry, leaving then also in a very robust and healthy financial position and further backed by a EUR 50 million credit facility, supported by the same group of banks that was in our previous facility, which then provides us with a lot of flexibility and optionality for future business growth.
Then I look at our '26 guidance for continuing operations only, so for our Karskruv wind farm and the European greenfield platform. Starting with power generation, we expect that to end up in between 210 and 270 gigawatt hours for the full year. And our first half year actuals were 113. So as Dan mentioned, we are on track to end up close to the midpoint of that range. And also that range also takes into account weather impacts and price curtailment and ancillary services, as Dan said.
Operating expenses for the full year, we expect that to total in between EUR 4 million and EUR 5 million, and that -- this is then purely related to Karskruv. And actuals for the first 6 months were EUR 2.2 million. G&A for continuing operations, there also, we expect full year cost of in between EUR 4 million and EUR 5 million. And here also, we have first half actuals of EUR 2.2 million, sort of supporting our full year outlook -- and so as you can see, very much delivering in line with full year expectations on all parameters here.
Sudan legal costs, here, we expect a full year cost of EUR 4.5 million. And here, it's important to note that our actual cost for the first 6 months was EUR 4.1 million. So implicitly, we only expect then EUR 400,000 of costs for the second half, which represents a 90% drop in costs compared to first half, reflecting that, as I said earlier, the trial has ended, ended in May, and now very, very limited cost exposure. And as I said also, with verdict expected in December.
Capital expenditure. This is investments into our European greenfield platform, just maturing projects and making them ready for divestment processes. We have spent EUR 4.2 million year-to-date and expect for the full year here to end up close to EUR 8 million. And as you also can see, I mean, the year-to-date revenues actually exceed what we have allocated our capital into the greenfield platform year-to-date. So as I said before, a very strong start of the year from our greenfield platform.
Then a look at some key financial metrics. Only for continuing operations, as I said before, if you start looking -- if you start with revenues, here we have -- we are showing quarterly revenues going back to the same quarter last year. And as I said, Q2 revenues almost at par with Q1, where we had record pricing throughout the Nordic region. And if you compare -- if you do a year-over-year comparison, you can see a very significant increase to revenues of almost EUR 4 million up, which is then explained by the contribution from project sales in Q2, whereas back in Q2 last year, we had yet to conclude our first divestment, which started in Q3. And then you see we have had booked revenues in back-to-back quarter since then with then, like I said, all-time high of almost EUR 4 million in Q2. Same pattern then, EBITDA close to the Q1 level despite lower pricing and lower volumes throughout -- or in South of Sweden, supported by the project sales. And if you do a year-over-year comparison, very, very material increase.
And I think the key takeaway on this slide is the dotted line, where we have added back the Sudan legal costs. So it's showing EBITDA excluding Sudan legal costs, and as I said before, since we now going forward, expect very marginal costs related to the Sudan case. This is a lot more representative -- presents a lot more representative picture of the potential for future EBITDA generation from our continuing operations.
And over the last 3 quarters, that has been in between EUR 3 million and EUR 4 million on a quarterly basis. And if you do a rolling 12 months, the last 4 quarters, EUR 11 million of EBITDA generation from our continuing operations, which is a very solid EBITDA contribution and provides us then with future growth opportunities and a lot of robustness from a financial perspective.
Then I look at achieved price for continuing operations. So this is then the achieved price for our Karskruv assets. The average system price for the first 6 months of '26 was EUR 79 per megawatt hour. This was supported by very favorable market environment, obviously, impacted by the geopolitical situation, a tight gas market, but also more some other factors in the Nordic region, namely a very supportive hydrological balance and also nuclear utilization, which has been below the average. And we also expect -- these factors we expect to continue also for the coming months. So it's also a strong outlook for pricing in the Nordics going forward, and maybe especially in the southern part of Sweden, where Karskruv is located.
And if you look at the spot price relevant for Karskruv, the average SE4 price during the first 6 months was EUR 89, so a 12% premium to the average system price. Solid premium, but still actually a low premium in a historical context, but very important for our revenue contribution.
And then if you do the breakdown to our achieved price for the first 6 months, we had EUR 1 of contribution from ancillary services and GoOs. And then we had a negative impact from our hedges due to the very strong pricing. We had a loss on our hedges. Obviously, that is a favorable outcome. We want -- that's actually the outcome we want as opposed to the other way around. So that had a negative impact on our achieved prices. And as we said before, those hedges are put in place to support the downside. And since we're not fully hedged to lose on those, it actually makes us better off than if we are ending up gaining on the hedges.
Then we had a small capture price discount, less than 10% capture price discount in the first half year of '26, resulting in an all-in achieved price for Karskruv of EUR 70 per megawatt hour. And if we take a look back and look at the important variables impacting the achieved price for Karskruv, if you look at the right-hand side of the slide here, starting with the premium of the SE4 price region to the average system price in the Nordics.
As I mentioned, it was 12% in the first half of '26, which has been, as I said, low in a historical context. In '25, it was more than 50%; '24, almost 40%. And if you look at the long-term average, the 10-year horizon from 2016 to 2025, the average premium has been 31%. So obviously, a very favorable location for wind farm in the Nordics, which we expect to support revenues also going forward.
And then capture price discount, another important variable for our revenues. Here, we have seen a favorable trend over the last couple of years. '24, we had a capture price discount of 22%, which dropped down to 12% in '25, partly helped by price curtailment. And then a very low capture price discount of 7% first half of '26.
We have said in the past, prior to the Cloudberry transaction, looking at our portfolio then, including the discontinued operations, that we expected a long-term average for the capture price discount of in between 20% and 25%. Karskruv has always delivered a lower capture price discount, so a more favorable capture price discount than the average of the rest of the portfolio, due to -- partly due to location, but also due to the curtailment optionality.
So on average, that sort of that low -- on average, Karskruv has been in the order of 10 percentage points lower capture price discount compared to the rest of the portfolio. So we think a more representative capture price discount going forward, but also keeping in mind that it will be volatile, especially on a quarterly basis, we think sort of more a representative expectation for Karskruv long-term is then more 10% to 15% as opposed to the 20% to 25% as we put forward for the portfolio prior to the Cloudberry transaction.
So with that, I'll hand the word back to Daniel.
Thank you, Espen. And just one quick slide to sum up. I think I hope we've made it clear on the value proposition within Orron Energy. And I think the Cloudberry transaction does a number of things for us. One, it creates the Nordic listed, Nordic-focused leading IPP in Cloudberry, 2 terawatt hours of production, the ability to integrate all of the disciplines from early-stage development to construction to repowering, life extension, hybridization, batteries, data centers, new renewable projects, hydro, solar, and wind. So it creates a really fantastic company.
And then for Orron Energy alone, that represents -- that value of 27% in Cloudberry represents more than 80% of our share price as it stands right now. So that really is an element that's mark-to-market, it's simple to value, and you can understand where that value is relative to where we're trading. And the rest of the portfolio, whether it's the greenfield business, which we touched on a bit more, the optionality and the revenue generation coming out of that, the strategic pivot a little bit into data centers to add those into the core business, really gives us a strong platform.
Karskruv is a fantastic asset, delivering long-term cash flows. And if I just look at the Cloudberry stake plus Karskruv, I get to somewhere that's either, what's almost a doubling of where the share price sits today without any value for the rest.
When I look at Sudan, we've finished now in the District Court, we expect a verdict that's in our favor. And the EUR 76 million or 800 -- just north of SEK 800 million that we've claimed in terms of reimbursement represents between SEK 2.5 and SEK 3 a share in terms of the value today. So when I add up all of the sum of the parts, I end up significantly in excess of where the share price is trading today. And we do that with a very, very clean and solid balance sheet with almost 0 net debt post closing of the transaction.
So we believe Orron Energy is in a fantastic place today. We have a lot of upside and optionality that we expect to deliver on in the coming quarters. And then the value is underpinned by that share in Cloudberry, which is a fantastic Nordic platform growing in this space.
So with that, I'll pass over to Jenny, and we'll move through the Q&A.
Yes. Thank you very much. For anyone joining us online, feel free to send across questions. We already have a lot of good questions. But if you're joining us and you haven't already submitted your questions, then now it's a good time to do so.
We've got -- let's start with one question around the stock price. Very surprised that the stock market doesn't recognize the value of Orron in the stock value. What would be the trigger for the stock to close the gap between value and price?
I think I'll pass that question back to shareholders to answer. I think inside our share, we've always traded with some discount to underlying NAV. And I think it's obviously something we're working on to try and close that gap between NAV and the value of the assets. And I think the Cloudberry transaction really, really demonstrates the value of our assets on the market.
When I look at the value of Karskruv or the value of what we've done, it's multiples on where the share price is today. So I think we're putting all of the information forward to allow shareholders to make a decision.
And the second element will be on the back of the Sudan outcome. I think a range of investors are waiting to see the end of the Sudan trial to see the verdict. And on the back of that, I see a significant re-rating in our stock price as we move into a much cleaner investment story.
Thank you very much. There's also a few questions around the transaction. Why was the Cloudberry deal considered the best way to create value for your shareholders?
Yes. I think we've always -- as I said in the presentation, we've always viewed this sector as somewhere where we need scale and size. And we've been working for a long period to grow that scale. We've been moving in a range of acquisitions. And I think creating a Nordic champion at the leading Nordic listed and Nordic-focused platform is really important, whether it's us acquiring or merging with Cloudberry or some others. And I think this opportunity in terms of timing, in terms of valuation, in terms of us becoming a strategic owner in Cloudberry, allows us to do all of that. It creates a fantastic platform, fantastic company, and it gives us a clear mark-to-market in our share price to understand the value.
We also have, within Cloudberry, the ability to use the equity to grow that business, and that option has been off the table for Orron Energy, given the discount to value and the Sudan case. And so this allows us to have a shareholding in Cloudberry, which has then allowed to use its -- or can effectively use its equity to grow if it's value-accretive for the company.
And why was Karskruv not included in the Cloudberry deal?
Yes, I think it's a good question. Why isn't this a full merger? I think 2 key elements to that. One, the retention of Karskruv allows us to continue to fund our growth and fund our greenfield business and provides a platform to do that.
The second element is, had we included Karskruv into the Cloudberry transaction, it would have pushed us above a threshold in Norway, which meant we would have had to make a mandatory bid for the remainder of the Cloudberry business. And obviously, there's no means of doing that within Orron Energy post the transaction. And so both on the technicality and then strategically, because of where we want to continue to grow our development business and potentially deploy more capital into that space over time, it allows us to do both of those or treat both of those elements in the right way, hence, the exclusion of Karskruv from the Cloudberry deal.
And why are you not looking at solar or data center projects in Sweden? Are you no longer growing in Sweden? Or what's the strategy there?
Yes, we're still growing. So we have a range of solar projects in Sweden. We have data centers, we have batteries, and that portfolio will stay with our Nordic business and be a part of Cloudberry. The reality for solar in the Nordics, it's still challenging to make it economically viable. So it's on the edge economically. But it doesn't mean we're not developing those projects and taking them forward and managing our cost base.
The Nordics is a fantastic location for data centers, and I'm looking forward to seeing our business, combined with Cloudberry, giving the ability to go and grow that data center business from within the combined entity going forward. We have a range of projects in that space, as do Cloudberry. And I think as they get closer to maturity, you'll start to hear more about those.
Can you give a time line or status of the 1.8-gigawatt sales process in the U.K., and 300-megawatt project?
Yes, we have an ongoing sales process for that 1.8 gigawatt portfolio of solar in that there's a 300-megawatt solar project, and then we also have a stand-alone 300-megawatt data center project.
We're not going to comment a lot on the details of those transactions. We have a range of bids on the solar package, and we've only just launched on the data center package, and we'll come back to the market when we have news to share on the outcome of those processes.
Excellent. The delayed Agri-PV project in Germany, could you give us some color on what the delay means for future sale of the project?
Yes, we sold -- at the end of last year, we sold 3 solar projects to Gulermak, and we had a range of deliverables, and it's taken us slightly longer to secure the grid for those specific projects, which is meant under the current construct, they don't participate in that transaction. We expect those to reenter the market in the second half of this year, and we'll update once we have more details on the sales processes. We'll update the market as we normally do.
Great. And then in terms of the German energy hubs, when do you expect to launch the sale of these? And do you have a time line for a future sale?
Yes, the project is live. So very, very recently live, I'd say. End of July, the portfolio went into the market. Too early to say exactly what the outcome is going to be. We'll need to let that process run its course, and then we'll come back when we have the outcome of that. You should expect it in the second half of this year for sure.
And then going to data centers, given your power grid expertise, how far up the data center value chain can you go? Why stop at selling projects and not building them out and selling at a later stage?
Yes. We have this discussion routinely within the solar projects, battery projects, and now data center projects. So there's no doubt that we have the capability to build it all the way out.
However, the CapEx needs for data centers are an order of magnitude bigger than what we're able to do. So we want to ensure that we have some revenues coming in to ensure that we don't take full market risk on all of this with the entire company. And so like the solar projects and the strategy so far, you should expect us to see some form of revenue recognition and then redeploy that capital into carrying projects further and continuing to grow our business.
And there's a lot of ongoing activities in the EU to promote the green transition, such as electrification, battery investments. Is this something you noticed in your operations and developments?
Yes, I think absolutely across the EU, certainly, Germany and U.K., there's huge ambition to continue down the pathway of deploying renewables and greening the grid. But we're also in the same journey, seeing huge constraints from the grid perspective with a flood of demand projects around data centers and other demand, but also the renewable space. And so this concept of an energy hub, I think, is really important as we look towards not only meeting the needs of future society, both from a power and Internet data center perspective, but also from a grid and infrastructure perspective.
And what we're putting forward is a campus that essentially generates its own power, consumes its own power, and uses the grid for the bit in the middle. And that's going to deliver a lot of stability back towards grid. It's going to deliver a lot of stability towards society in terms of the power generation, power pricing. But then more importantly, for the demand centers, as it provides a route to generating their own power, hedging the cost, and having certainty over the supply of power. So energy hubs, I see as a really important element going forward, and we see the legislation and reform moving alongside that journey.
And going into hedging, do you have any hedges on Karskruv moving forward and the remaining production?
Yes. We have some hedges, some baseload hedges for Karskruv, actually the same hedges that we had at the end of Q1. So we have disclosed them in our quarterly reports. You can find all the details there on volumes and the price levels for Q3 and Q4. We have not added to the position since we announced the Cloudberry transaction. So -- and we have now hedges up until year-end '26 and nothing beyond that as we speak.
And the final question then, how do you see the short- and long-term position and strategy for Orron?
Yes. I think short-term, we've laid out the key themes for the business. So Cloudberry transaction, we need to close that transaction, which we expect within Q3, integrate the businesses and then support the growth of Cloudberry as an active shareholder.
Karskruv is delivering as it should, as expected. The greenfield business really is a big focus for the second half of this year. We've built a fantastic platform, and we now need to see the value delivery out of that platform, which is coming with a range of projects in the market and a range of projects maturing. And then we see the outcome of the Sudan trial at the end of this year. So next 6 months to 12 months is really, really key around Cloudberry, greenfield development, and Sudan. And then we'll come back to the market later on with the direction for growth and continued growth.
We're active in a lot of markets. We're active on the M&A space. And I think you've seen that in our history that we continue to find very accretive things to do for shareholders. And so we will continue down that pathway with all of the key pillars of our business.
Thank you very much. If there are no further questions, I would like to thank everyone for joining us today. And you know where to find us in case there's something that comes up or something comes to mind. Any questions afterwards, you feel free to reach out, and we're more than happy to answer. So have a lovely afternoon, everyone, and great summer ahead.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
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Lundin Energy — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Lundin Energy — Orrön Energy AB (publ) - M&A Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to Orron Energy's webcast covering the transformative transaction we announced late last night. I'm Daniel Fitzgerald, I'm the CEO of Orron Energy. And through the course of the next presentation, I'll give you a quick overview of the transaction, what it means for Orron Energy and why we're so excited about this combination, but then also what remains behind in Orron Energy and what does Orron Energy look like going forward, which is really important for shareholders.
I apologize for our Swedish shareholders that we're doing this in the middle of Midsummer and the summer break. It's always a good time to get deals done if you need a small group of people working on them. But for our loyal shareholders, it's been a challenge to take you away from your summer vacation into this. If we look at the transaction that we announced last night, for us, and I think for Cloudberry as well, this is a really compelling transaction. For a long period of time, we've said that we're too small and we're subscale.
We've been looking at opportunities to grow our business, to acquire assets, to build parts of the business, and we always needed to be a much bigger platform. And I think this combination brings together 2 very, very like-minded companies. It brings together a very complementary, focused more towards the Danish and the Norwegian sector expanding into Sweden. They stepped into MLK earlier this year. And from our side, we have a deeper connection into Sweden and Finland.
When we put those 2 groups of assets together, we build a company that has 2.1 terawatt hours of production and active across all of the price regions, primarily in wind with hydro on the Norwegian sector. We also bring 2 organizations together that are very, very complementary. I think we have a deep experience in owning, operating, maintaining turbines with our team that joined us via Slitevind and how we've grown that over the last few years.
That gives us a fantastic opportunity when we look forward at how we should be operating and maintaining turbines in the future. We combine that with Cloudberry. We bring their competence through Captiva and their asset management side as well alongside ours to own and operate this group of assets in a way that brings a lot more skills than just a pure financial investment. And I'm really excited about not only the operational synergies as we put here, but the opportunity to go and do across a broad portfolio all of the things that we're really good at and all of the things that Cloudberry are really good at.
We have a broad range of opportunities from hybridization, repowering, life extension, stepping into ancillary services, balancing markets. And I see our journey is not complete with these assets. When we look forward, we're going to take a very, very active role in this company going forward.
We pick up -- I'll touch on the deal metrics on the next slide, but we pick up a really active role in ensuring that we're able to support and bring all of our competence to work inside the Cloudberry platform. And that fills me with a lot of excitement about what we can do with this business going forward.
The market is also different today to what it's been over the last few years. It's extremely complex. We need to be in balancing ancillary services and trading of our power alongside the day-to-day operations, and we really need a broad and diversified platform to do that, and that's what this brings.
When I look at future opportunities, we've seen a lot of consolidation over the last few years across the Nordics. We've seen OX2 stepping out. We've seen Arise stepping out. We've seen a few others joining forces and a lot of assets trading hands. We've seen Aneo picking up a range of opportunities. We've seen majors exiting the sphere. And I think coming forward today with the largest listed IPP focused solely on the Nordics is a really compelling transaction. And then secondly, the opportunities for future consolidation using this platform and the skills within fills me with a lot of excitement about what we can deliver from this platform.
You can see on the map the spread of assets now that this truly is a pan-Nordic business. And what you don't see is all of the underlying opportunity in development, in repowering, life extension, hybridization. I think that will come to the fore as we continue to build within this combined entity.
When I look at what this means for Orron Energy and our shareholders, on the left-hand side of this chart, you'll see what we're divesting, which is primarily all of our Nordic operational assets with the exclusion of Karskruv. And the transaction is made up of a repayment of debt, a cash consideration and a number of shares. And if we put our arms around the entirety of that consideration, it's around EUR 93 million worth of debt that will be repaid as part of this transaction, and that brings the net debt within Orron Energy down close to 0 post-transaction.
There's a small amount of cash and working capital. And then really importantly, there's a 27% shareholding in Cloudberry, which is the majority of the consideration for this transaction. As of -- if we look at the value of that over the last 30-day VWAP of the Cloudberry share, we get to around that EUR 140 million. And then on the right-hand side, you see Orron Energy and the remaining Orron Energy.
We will be an active owner in Cloudberry. Myself and Henrika Frykman will take positions on the Board of Cloudberry and help alongside the strong and long-standing shareholders of Cloudberry to continue their journey to create value from that platform. Within the business, our strong teams in the Nordics will help to continue to operate and run and bring the value from our portfolio. We then step into the balance sheet.
We will deleverage the company almost completely and have a EUR 50 million facility sitting behind. And then we retain the Karskruv asset, which will deliver cash flow and the ability to continue to invest in the European greenfield business, which we will also retain.
When I look at the closing of this transaction, obviously, announced today, we expect to close in the second half, most likely in Q3, depending on regulatory approvals, government approvals. However, we do have, as of today, nearly 50% of the shareholders in Cloudberry who have signed irrevocable undertakings to support this transaction. So it's quite compelling that the shareholders in Cloudberry are supporting this.
Our shareholders, we've seen on the markets this morning, are supportive of this, and it's nice to see for both sets of shareholders that both share prices have risen at opening today, which is the ultimate judge of our performance as a company as a listed entity is how the market sees our performance.
And so I think that's some validation of the value and the compelling value for both companies in this transaction. If we then look at the value inside Orron Energy and how we consider the different elements, if I take that 27% shareholding in Cloudberry and look at the last 30-day VWAP of Cloudberry shares, this consideration amounts to around just shy of SEK 5.5 per share. And I'll refer you to the right-hand side, which was our market cap at Orron Energy at close yesterday of SEK 7.3 per share. So when you put this transaction in the context of Orron Energy, it's a material amount of where the market believes our value is today. But that means that everything else underneath that Cloudberry shareholding is only worth SEK 2 a share based on our market cap as of yesterday.
Karskruv, fantastic asset. It will be delivering EUR 8 million to EUR 12 million worth of EBITDA in 2026 based on the pricing we use in our guidance. We've got the European development platform with a massive amount of opportunity and an emerging data center play from within that. And we've delivered already EUR 23 million worth of revenues.
We have almost over 2 gigawatts worth of projects in the market today, and we see so much potential. And we remain with a strong balance sheet as we have done since inception. We have EUR 50 million facility sitting against the same terms and the same corporate facility we had prior to this transaction, and we'll be largely undrawn against that facility at closing or in at least a net debt neutral position.
So really, when I come back to where Orron Energy is trading today, we have operated with a discount to value for a long period of time, and this transaction gives you a direct mark-to-market valuation on a portion of our assets now with this shareholding in Cloudberry. And it's quite simple to value some of the underlying components, which points to a significant upside in terms of NAV from where we're trading today. And now going forward, the 2 big elements of our business are the European greenfield and Karskruv.
Karskruv, we know and understand quite well within the company. And the European greenfield business really is an important part going forward. When I look here at the slide, we've touched on some of the elements within our portfolio. On the left, we have the 400 megawatts that we've sold to date for EUR 23 million. Today, we have live processes running for 1.8 gigawatts worth of solar in the U.K.
We've also got a 300-megawatt data center that's live for sale in the U.K. at the moment. And we'll see those processes running into Q3 and come back to the market with where we land on those. The solar market in U.K., Germany, France, still very, very strong.
The data center market is extremely strong. And if we're able to see some of the values coming through that, we'll see a material upside within this business. But that's not all. When I move further to the right on this slide, you start to see the depth of this portfolio. And I think the teams have done a fantastic job at ensuring that we're not only bringing things to market, but we're also filling that pipeline with a significant amount of future opportunity.
As we move forward, we now own 100% of the shares in this underlying business. We're fully committed to driving this, and I think we will start to see that value crystallizing over the next short period. And deepening a little bit more, we see data centers as an opportunity that's really coming to the fore now. It sits -- whether you believe in the AI hype or whether it's a bubble, there's no doubt that the amount of capital flowing into this part of the market is monumental. And so we bring the same power-led competence from our renewable competence, building land positions, building grid connections, building the permitting and local support for the projects. We've been doing this for data centers for almost 2 years now.
And now we're starting to see these projects coming to market. And I think there's an opportunity emerging within this space for a power-led data center business. And as of today, the biggest constraint we see in the data center market is not the chips and provision or the capital to fund them. It's the availability of powered land. And I think we bring a really strong competence set into that domain.
We will see the emergence of the data center projects coming to market over the next period. And if we just take what I think has been an exceptional execution from Magnora with the launch of their data center business, we see strong value today mark-to-market in the Magnora platform, which is trading around or north of NOK 1 billion for that platform. And I think there's a lot of opportunity in this business, either within Orron or for opportunities to go and capitalize that over the longer period.
So I think we're still incubating this business, the development business and the data center business, and we should expect to hear more of that as we go through the second half of the year on what our plans are. When I look at the remaining Orron Energy, I think it's right for us to update the market in terms of the performance we expect out of the remaining business.
When we sell the assets to Cloudberry, we'll step down in terms of production with just Karskruv online of between 210 and 270 gigawatt hours worth of production. And we see a similar set of metrics across OpEx, G&A, Sudan costs. So we expect operating costs and G&A to be between EUR 4 million and EUR 5 million remaining for the second half of the year.
Sudan legal costs sitting at EUR 4.5 million and capital expenditure comes down slightly to EUR 8 million. So we'll update the market a little bit more in the second quarter results, and we can refresh this guidance as we move forward and the business changes to fully reflect the sale of these assets and to reflect the consideration we're getting paid in terms of Cloudberry stock. And so if I put all of that together, I think there's 4 key things we need to focus on within Orron Energy now.
First one is this largest ownership in what is a leading Nordic IPP. Cloudberry is the biggest listed Nordic-focused IPP. We take a strong position alongside some very experienced and long-standing shareholders in Cloudberry with a vision to grow this company into something more material in the future.
Our journey with our assets is not complete. I think our teams have done a fantastic job at building from where we -- from when we acquired this business into today, and that journey will just continue in the future. And I think the Orron team, not only within the business, but also coming from Henrika and I stepping on to the Board, brings the best of Orron Energy and the Lundin Group experience into Cloudberry to try and drive this. We will be a long-term holder of these shares. We've signed a 12-month lockup on the shares, and we intend to grow this business to a much larger scale going forward.
So that really is one core pillar. Large-scale greenfield pipeline, we've touched on. That's an important pillar that we'll see the value coming to market or we'll test the market in terms of putting a value on that side of the business at some point in the coming 12 months.
Karskruv, very, very solid asset, strong long-term cash flows, very good value, underpins the finance facility to allow us to keep investing. And then finally, a debt-free balance sheet is a big strength for Orron Energy.
So in summary, I think this transaction is a fantastic combination. It brings together 2 very like-minded groups of people. It brings together a complementary asset base and allows us both to drive this to a new level going forward. And so with that, I'll probably open up for Q&A.
Yes. Thank you very much, Daniel. And for everyone joining us online at the bottom of your screen, you have a Q&A function so you can write in your questions and we will go through them as we go along.
There's a lot of good questions already, but just to start off with some related to the transaction. Does this mean that you will no longer grow in the Nordics? Or where would you decide to grow? How will you grow in the future?
Yes. I think our Nordic growth will come via this platform. This is a very active ownership from our perspective. We're going to be active in this company. We don't expect to compete with Cloudberry.
I don't think it makes sense -- and when I look at the options for consolidation across this space, it really is a good time to go and do that. And I think this is the best way we can do that. Within Orron Energy, we wanted to do a lot more, but we're quite small in terms of size and scale. And I think Cloudberry has probably faced some similar challenges.
Putting this together makes a lot of sense and then growing this business from a much bigger platform is really important going forward. So our Nordic growth is within Cloudberry. I think you should expect us to spend a lot more time on the greenfield business, potentially bringing some assets on to balance sheet, deploying some capital into that part of the market, and we need to really explore this data center business in the right way in the second half.
Teams have done a fantastic job building it. And now it's time for seeing where that business is truly valued once we end up selling a few projects into the market.
Very good. There's also a question regarding the organization. I -- are you transferring the whole organization together with assets in this transaction? Or how does the transaction [indiscernible] ?
I think the team that are operating and maintaining the assets today are a critical part of our business and a critical part of how we are able to extract value from this part of the market.
We have a great network from that team, and we have a great team of people, which will be a very valuable addition into Cloudberry. So the transaction does include the Nordic team and then the greenfield team remains and the Geneva management team remains within the Orron Energy vehicle going forward.
And did you approach Cloudberry -- or did they approach you? Or who took the initiative to this transaction?
I think if I've known Anders for a long period of time. We've all known the Cloudberry assets. They've known ours. We've had discussions on and off for a long period getting to know each other at conferences and other things and the timing and the valuations just were right at a different point in time. And so this transaction, I think, the right timing, the right incentives from both sides, the right appetite for growth has managed to culminate in this transaction. So very, very pleased to see the collaboration between the 2 companies through this process.
There's also a question, when do you think the transaction will be finalized? What's the time frame?
So we've signed the transaction last night, press-released that, which you obviously have seen. We need an EGM in Cloudberry, which will approve the issuance of shares and some other matters, where we have voting undertakings for nearly 50% of the shares to support that. And then we expect to close the transaction in Q3 of this year, later in Q3 this year.
Great. And then there's a few questions regarding your greenfield business. Is this still a way of getting a critical mass to attend demand from data centers?
Absolutely. We've -- I'd say we've been early in our grid applications for data centers. This has been building within our company for about 2 years.
So it's not as if today we're pivoting into it starting from scratch. I think the teams have done a fantastic job at getting early into the grid queue with opportunities. And what we're seeing in terms of the market today is more of an energy hub style project rather than just a grid connection for a data center and power is a massive issue for all of these guys and also for the grid.
So -- where we're finding a lot of success and especially in Germany is where we can bring power plus storage plus data centers together on our side of the grid connection is very attractive for the transmission system operators. We're accelerating up the schedule in terms of the grid dates. And because we're early dated in terms of our applications, there's a fantastic opportunity set.
So we're quite mature on a range of those projects. We have a range of behind-the-meter options, and I think we'll be able to share more and there'll be a bigger spotlight on this business as we go into the second half of this year.
You also mentioned ongoing sales processes. Could you give us some flavor on this in the U.K.?
Yes. So we've communicated for a while in the U.K. that we've had Gate 2 grid connection agreements for or grid connection support for 1.8 gigawatts of solar projects and around 1.1 gigawatts of data centers.
So we're in the market live with -- the portfolio of solar projects, we're seeing strong interest, and we're in the market quite recently with a 300-megawatt data center project. So we expect to update the market when we finish, and it's likely that you'll hear more in the course of Q3.
You mentioned some strategic options. And Magnora just spun off their data center business. Would this be an opportunity that you would be looking into?
I think when you look at the multiples on data centers, if we're to sell a solar project or a data center, we should sell the data center any day today. The multiples can be up to 10x the value of solar. So we have to be active in that market. The competence to build the early stage is land plus grid plus permits, and that's the same for solar as it is for data centers.
So we have to be active. We are active. And I think it's really interesting seeing the likes of Magnora and other pure-play data center businesses coming to market. And I think there's a compelling place for a power-led data center business that can provide not only the data center opportunity powered, but also the power solution and what the grid is looking for in terms of storage and renewables. So I think there's a very strong opportunity, and we'll go and test that a little bit more in the second half of this year.
Yes, okay. Good. And then there's also a question around the legal costs. And if you can give some flavor around the guidance that you've provided there.
Yes. So the legal costs, if you roll back to 2025, we were spending around EUR 7 million a year. We guided that we were at EUR 4 million for this year. We've now finished in the district court, which took a little bit longer and a bit more work than expected.
So we're around EUR 4 million spent to date, and we have a small amount of cost in the second half of the year. So at the end of this year, we expect a positive verdict in the Sudan case.
And then on the back of that, we should see costs down to 0 thereafter without any appeal, et cetera. So we expect this year to be around that EUR 4.5 million. And so that's an update to our guidance from the EUR 4 million that we had in our guidance originally in February to 4.5 million in this update today.
And in terms of the remaining organization in Orron, are you expecting any changes there?
Yes, I think we need to take stock of where the business is. The Nordic business, really important that, that continues as it is today, and all of our employees will be offered the opportunity to join Cloudberry and to join this combined entity going forward. So I think that's really important and an important part of the value within our portfolio. So that remains as is. And I think the greenfield team as well is going to continue exactly as it is today. So I don't see the need for big changes in our organization going forward.
Excellent. I don't think we have any further questions. Do you have any concluding remarks or something you would like to cover off before we say...
I think thanks to all of the shareholders and viewers today. Very, very excited to see this transaction concluding. It's been a few months of hard work from both us and Cloudberry.
Also very pleased to see the two share prices positively reacting today, which suggests the deal is very accretive for both parties, which is a valid representation. And most importantly, I think I'm excited about not only what this platform can do going forward, bringing together the 2 organizations and the entrepreneurial culture of both companies coming together to grow, but then also within Orron Energy, I think we've been undervalued for a long period of time, and this is a very clear marker of an underlying element of value that you can mark-to-market and the remaining value within Orron is compelling for our shareholders and our investment case.
So thank you very much for joining, and I wish you a good summer break when it comes.
Thank you.
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Lundin Energy — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good afternoon, and welcome to Orrön Energy's Q1 Results Presentation. Today, we will listen to our CEO, Daniel Fitzgerald; and CFO, Espen Hennie, describing the Q1 results and the future growth strategy of the company.
As usual, we will have a Q&A session at the end of the presentation, so please feel free to send across as many questions as you have. We will collect and go through them at the end.
With that, I would like to hand over to Daniel Fitzgerald to start this presentation.
Thank you, Jenny, and welcome to our shareholders joining us for the first quarter 2026 results. As a quick recap for the company, Orrön Energy is a pure-play renewable energy company. We have 380 megawatts of producing assets with 80% of those sitting in Sweden. 20% in Finland and all of that portfolio is onshore wind. Happily sharing today that we've seen higher pricing in Q1 of this year, and that's led to some of the strongest cash flows we've seen for a number of quarters within the company, and we'll touch on that throughout the presentation.
These assets deliver long-term cash flows and give us the ability to go and extend lives, add value, hybridize assets and utilize the infrastructure that we have in the most valuable way for creating value in the long term.
The second pillar of the company sits around the greenfield development business. I'm pleased to share that again, this quarter, we've seen strong results from that. We're seeing the recurring cash flows coming out of that portion of the business with quite high and strong margins, and we will continue to see that coming through as we mature the pipeline. It's in really, really strong shape with a lot of optionality and opportunity within that portfolio.
Finally, the third pillar, which has always been a strength for us is that we remain here today fully financed, ample liquidity headroom to continue to grow the business and to continue to invest in this space, and so with that, we'll spend a little bit more time now on the quarterly results.
I think we start a little bit with the market. This quarter has been exceptionally strong for us. We've seen certainly in January and February, much lower temperatures in the Nordics much tighter supply-demand balance, which has led us to see very, very strong electricity pricing in January and February. That followed to a lesser extent in March and April, but still high relative to long-term averages or at least achieved pricing we've seen over the last number of quarters.
Interesting to note that Q1 performance really was driven by the cold weather and tightening of supply and demand prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. I think we haven't really yet seen the full impact of that closure. We've taken around 20% of LNG volumes out of the market. Today, we've not seen them coming back in. We've not replenished the gas storage, and we sit at seasonal lows in terms of gas storage. We've seen futures pricing across the Nordics increasing slightly during this period.
However, the longer this lack of supply on the LNG side goes on, I think we're going to see more and more strengthening of the electricity price in the Nordics. Especially if we're unable to fill gas reservoirs back up to the levels that they need to be, we're going to see a much, much tighter balance through the winter next year and already in the summer of this year. That sets us up for quite a strong outlook, and I think Espen will touch on some of that later in the presentation where we share our outlook for 2026. I think these structural issues behind us, it's going to have an impact later in 2026 and into the winter.
If we look at our performance during the quarter, we achieved revenues of EUR 17 million, including both the power generation business where we delivered 231 gigawatt hours of production and our greenfield development business, where we delivered around EUR 1.6 million of revenues from that in the quarter. That was against an achieved price of EUR 67 per megawatt hour. I think we have to roll our minds back to the end of 2022 or early 2023 before we've seen either revenues achieved pricing or EBITDA at these levels when we account for or exclude one-off items on our quarterly results, so very, very strong quarter. We're looking forward at stronger volumes. We're looking forward at stronger pricing as we go through the year.
Our net debt position remains largely unchanged. Again, Espen will touch on this, we see strong -- we saw strong cash generation in the quarter. However, a working capital build due to phasing of receipts has meant that we haven't seen that coming through in the deleveraging this quarter, but we will coming into the next quarter.
The final element on here around the divestments, we now to-date have sold 400 megawatts worth of German projects, and that's translated into sales contracts of EUR 23 million, where we've received only a portion of that to-date. There's still some recurring revenues that are going to be coming out of the greenfield pipeline, and we're seeing that again already in Q2, which we've announced, and we'll see that later in the year.
Then importantly, on the District Court trial in Sudan, we really are at the end of this process now. We have a number of weeks left in the in the court, and it's resounding where we are today compared to the time that we've spent on this process. We've had the ability in the court over the last couple of weeks and months to sit down with all of the evidence in front of us, all of the prosecutor's allegations, and it further reinforces our view that we will end this process with a full acquittal.
Our defense teams over the last 2, 3 weeks have gone systematically through every single one of the allegations of the prosecutor, and we've gone methodically through all of the evidence and tried to line it up. I think there's a number of things that come out of this for me that are resounding again, and it's the first time in nearly 2 years, we've had the ability to do this in a very structured way.
The first piece of evidence that comes out is the company and the individuals have been a force for good in the country. There has been no evidence that supports any wrongdoing or any of the allegations that the prosecutors put forward. On the other hand, there's a lot of evidence for a lot of community investment, community support, and we went into the country with the support of the EU and the Swedish state at the time.
The individuals in the company operated in line with international standards for our business. We did everything that we should have done, and that's documented through all of the evidence. When we turn our eyes to what the prosecutor is alleging, his indictment and his suspicion sheet is extremely vague and imprecise. When we go through each of these elements, there's no shred of evidence that stands up that links any of the individuals to the underlying allegations or that proves any of the underlying allegations are real.
We're going to see the results of this, both the company, myself, the defense teams and all involved are absolutely certain that this will end in an acquittal of the individuals when it comes to verdict later in the year. I think the imprecise nature of the allegations and the vagueness of the suspicion sheet has led us to waste a significant amount of time and resources on this, and we will be making that claim to the court for the costs involved in this process as part of this final closing.
When we come to the end of the year, I remain extremely optimistic around this. I'm absolutely certain that we have done nothing wrong. The individuals have done nothing wrong. We will see a verdict in our favor at the end of the year and the full acquittal and dismissal of all of the charges and the forfeiture.
Stepping back into the production for the company and performance during the quarter. We delivered 231 gigawatt hours worth of production in the quarter, including compensated volumes. For the full-year outlook in terms of production, we remain in line with where we expect to be between 800 and 950. We saw very, very strong pricing in the quarter. You can see here an achieved price of EUR 67 per megawatt hour, and you can see in the yellow dots where we've been on achieved price over the last 8 quarters. It's a big jump from the historical averages, and we expect to see an average system price across the Nordics this year, assuming we rely on futures and Q1 historicals of around EUR 65 a megawatt hour. This really sets up a stronger year for cash generation for the company.
We also are increasingly adding optionality and flexibility into our operating portfolio. We now have 50% of the portfolio qualified for ancillary services and actively providing ancillary services to the market. We have over 80% of the portfolio able to steer their production and slow down when prices are significantly low or speed up when prices are higher, and so that flexibility is going to make us much stronger in the long run, and we are still on the lookout to continue to grow this asset base either through acquisitions, investments in our own opportunities and projects, adding batteries and flexibility to the portfolio or extending the lives and the production output of each of our assets.
Stepping into the greenfield portfolio, we continue to make really good progress in this portfolio. I'm now pleased to see that for the last 4 quarters -- or for the last 3 quarters, plus the quarter coming, we now have documented project sales from Germany in each of those quarters. To-date, we've sold 400 megawatts at around EUR 55,000 per megawatt of capacity. That multiple has been fairly consistent, sometimes up, sometimes down, but certainly around that level for all of the last project sales.
That equates then into contracts totaling EUR 23 million, where we've received EUR 6 million of that to date and included in the financials to-date, including the April project sale, where we received around half of that consideration upfront. However, in front of us, we have EUR 17 million worth of outstanding contingent payments as we continue to reach milestones on our projects. That excludes any of the future project sales from this portfolio.
If I look at Germany alone, with a 6-gigawatt portfolio, we've now got 1.8 gigawatts worth of batteries that have secured municipal approval and are working through the grid process to secure grid in line with the reform in Germany. We've got a gigawatt worth of solar projects where we have reserved land and available grid. That portfolio every quarter is maturing more and more. We're seeing more milestones being met. Most importantly, we're seeing those recurring revenues coming through.
If I look then on the right-hand side, we miss -- in that discussion, we missed the true optionality and opportunity within this portfolio. In Germany, for instance, we're building energy hubs that have data centers, batteries, solar, all together in a location where there's a grid connection. We're able to monetize solar projects. We've done that on a number of occasions to-date and will continue to do so in what is one of the strongest markets in Europe.
We're starting to see the data center business gaining some real momentum, not only in the Nordics, but also in Germany and the U.K., and our teams have been able to set up in each of our countries of operation some opportunities for data centers to move forward in the portfolio. Within that, I'm absolutely confident that what we've achieved to date is only just the beginning of where we're going to be with this portfolio. Germany is going to move into more sales processes in Q2 and Q3 this year.
When I look at the U.K., again, we're building optionality across the portfolio. We are expecting to see the final outcome of the grid reform and the grid connections with the binding documents later this year or at the very latest early next year. However, we're in the market today with 3 solar projects. We're soon in the market with another data center project. The buoyant market in the U.K. is very, very supportive of these. We will see as we move through the course of this year, whether we're able to secure a project sale or whether we need to wait for those final grid connections, but in both of these countries, we're seeing opportunities progressing very, very quickly, and we're quickly seeing the monetization of the portfolio.
I remain very excited. If I look at that element, combined with the production element and the conclusion of the Sudan trial, I remain very, very confident in our ability to create value from this platform. There's a lot of exciting things happening on every single front.
With that, I'll pass over to Espen for the financial update for the quarter.
Thank you, Daniel. Good afternoon, everyone. I'll go through the financials for Q1, which Dan touched upon earlier has been quite solid across the board. We'll go through sort of the details in the usual fashion and also wrap up with our updated cash flow outlook for the year.
Starting here with some of the highlights, EUR 17 million of revenues in Q1. That includes EUR 1.6 million of revenues from project sales. This then translated into an EBITDA of EUR 6 million for the quarter, and Daniel has already touched upon the power generation, 231 gigawatt hours, including compensated volumes and an achieved price of EUR 67 per megawatt hour, which is very strong in a historical context, and as Dan said, we need to go back to late '22, early '23 to see sort of similar levels. This translates into then ending net debt on a proportionate basis at the end of the quarter of EUR 19 million, which leaves us with a very solid liquidity buffer under our EUR 170 million debt facility.
Then a quick look at our full-year guidance and how we have performed so far this year. Starting with operating expenses. We are reiterating our guidance for OpEx and all the other parameters you see on the screen here. It's the same guidance as we put forward at our CMD. OpEx, we had EUR 6 million in Q1. This also includes a one-off of EUR 200,000. Adjusting for that, the figure on the screen here would have rounded to EUR 5 million as opposed to EUR 6 million, and I just want to emphasize that the OpEx year-to-date is fully in line with our plans and consistent with our full-year guidance as for the other parameters here on this slide.
G&A expenditure, EUR 2 million. for the quarter, again, on track for our full-year guidance. When it comes to Sudan legal costs, those are then now expected to be significantly lower already from this quarter, Q2 as the trial ends this month during the month of May. When it comes to CapEx, we do expect the pace of investments to pick up over the coming quarters and then total EUR 11 million for the full-year.
Then a look at some key financial metrics for Q1 and the preceding quarters going back to Q1 2025. If we start with power generation at the top right here on the slide, you can see that, that was flat quarter-over-quarter, but our achieved price was in the order of 75% higher than what we realized in Q4 of '25. This then drives the significantly higher revenues, EUR 16.6 million of revenues, including the project sales revenues in Q1 as opposed to then just shy of EUR 11 million in the preceding quarter, which also then included project sales revenues, but then EUR 2 million as opposed to EUR 1.6 million in this quarter. A
Then you can see the same pattern in our EBITDA, so very solid uptick in EBITDA quarter-over-quarter, EUR 6.3 million EBITDA when we exclude non-cash items compared to EUR 2.5 million in the previous quarter, which then obviously is driven by the stronger revenues, partly offset by somewhat higher OpEx and G&A, which again was fully in line with our plans for the full-year.
Moving then to cash flow from operating activities, excluding working capital. We strip out the working capital from the chart you see on the slide here as that is, by nature, very volatile and bulky on a quarterly basis, so to get a better picture of the underlying cash flow generation prior to those impacts, that was EUR 3.1 million in Q1, which then is, as you can see from the chart, a very solid improvement relative to the previous quarters.
Our achieved price for Q1, we have the breakdown here with sort of the major moving parts, summing up to our all-in achieved price of EUR 67. If we start with the Nordic system price that averaged EUR 91 per megawatt hour in Q1, so very supportive market environment during the quarter. Our portfolio had an average spot price of EUR 84, so an 8% discount to the system price, which is sort of a deviation to the norm if you look at longer historical data.
Our portfolio typically enjoys a premium to the system price, whereas in Q1, it was a small discount with a quite large -- to a large extent, explained by somewhat weaker pricing in the northern parts of Sweden and Finland for parts of the quarter, but anyway, we are obviously very, very happy with the overall outcome here of EUR 67. As a long-term average, you should expect our portfolio to sit as a premium to the system price.
Other revenues, EUR 1 per megawatt hour in Q1, that consists of ancillary services and sales of GOs. Then we had a loss on our hedges, which represent minus EUR 6 for the quarter. This is actually the outcome that we want. It's a preferable outcome for us to lose on our hedges. The hedges, they serve as an insurance against lower prices. Since we are not hedging all of our volumes, our total revenues end up higher when we lose on our hedges. We hope that also to stay as a negative in the coming quarters.
Capture price discount, minus EUR 12 per megawatt hour. That represents a capture price discount of 14%, also somewhat lower than -- or deviates a bit to the data if you look at the last couple of years. Normally, we would expect the capture price discount to be slightly higher than what we observed in Q1. All in all, achieved price then of EUR 67 megawatt hour during the quarter.
Cash flow and our liquidity position for Q1. I mentioned the CFFO, excluding working capital, that was EUR 3.1 million for the quarter. Daniel already mentioned a quite significant working capital impact this quarter. You can see it on the screen here, minus EUR 3.5 million in cash flow impact. Most of that is explained by purely timing of receipts from our power generation sales. We had a couple of -- parts of that just slipped over the month, so into Q2 instead of Q1. Obviously, we expect that to reverse during the current quarter.
CapEx in Q1 was EUR 2.2 million, that mostly consists of investments into our greenfield portfolio in Europe mainly, but also in the Nordics, which was almost fully offset by the revenues from our project sales of EUR 1.6 million during Q1. Then after some other items, we ended the quarter with a proportionate net debt just shy of EUR 9 million and quite in line with what we had at year-end '25, including this quite significant negative drag from working capital, as we mentioned.
Then a quick look at our liquidity position. We have cash and cash equivalents of EUR 17 million, if you also include cash balances in our JVs. The undrawn portion of our debt facility is EUR 65 million. This makes up EUR 82 million of total liquidity available to the company, which obviously is a very robust liquidity position and provides a lot of flexibility and resilience for us in terms of future planning and growth.
Then wrapping up with our updated cash flow outlook for 2026. We are now reflecting Q1 actuals. If you compare this with what we presented at our CMD in February, you will recognize that sort of we have -- the range is narrowed as we have now 1 quarter behind us with actuals. More importantly, the low price scenario is lifted quite significantly. We are here reflecting actuals year-to-date, so being Q1. We've also taken then a new look at price expectations for the coming quarters, Q2 to Q4, and we now expect our yearly achieved price to average in the range from EUR 40 to EUR 50 per megawatt hour, also taking into account our hedges, as you can see on the slide here.
Starting with revenues, we expect that to end up between EUR 39 million and EUR 47 million for the year. That includes the project sales revenues that we had year-to-date of EUR 4 million. That's the EUR 1.6 million that we have announced in our Q1 report today, and it's also the EUR 2.4 million of project sales that we received in April according to the press release that we announced not long ago. The EUR 4 million is only the portion that we already have received and sort of sit already in the bank. The slide that you see here, it fully excludes all future potential revenues throughout the year from further project sales, which we definitely do expect to occur. That represents pure upside to the figures you see on the slide here.
Based on the revenue range that I mentioned, we expect EBITDA to fall in between EUR 7 million and EUR 15 million for 2026. If you exclude the Sudan legal costs, which already from next month is expected now to be a fraction going forward of what it has been before, EBITDA would have been EUR 11 million to EUR 19 million for the full-year. Free cash flow pre-CapEx, we expect that to end up somewhere between EUR 2 million and EUR 10 million with a corresponding metric, excluding Sudan legal costs ranging from EUR 6 million to EUR 14 million. It's quite clear from this sort of slide and this picture to see that we do expect a very significant uptick in revenues and cash flow this year.
Important to note, as I already mentioned, there's still quite material upside in future potential greenfield sales, which we do expect to occur throughout the year. All of this is then underpinned by a very strong balance sheet and a very robust liquidity position.
With that, I'll hand the word back to Daniel for some concluding remarks. T
Thank you, Espen. I think on the next slide, I'll reiterate what we have -- what we've shared at the Capital Markets Day and where I sit with the company today. The producing asset base has excellent potential for long-term cash generation and the ability to continue to produce for many, many more years. We're now seeing in Q1 a return to more profitable times. We're seeing the higher pricing. We're seeing stronger revenues, and we're seeing good performance from our operating asset base. That's one really important trigger that I shared at Capital Markets Day.
I think the second really important trigger that has no value in the share at this point in time is the recurring revenues from the greenfield portfolio. With data centers, energy hubs, solar batteries and a mix of opportunities within that sphere, I see a lot of opportunity that's coming towards us. Every week that goes by, we're adding more and more options into the mix, and we're seeing more and more projects ready to come to market. That's going to be a really important one to watch this year.
The third one, which is not on this slide is the conclusion of the Sudan trial. In May, we will see the end of the District Court, and then it's a waiting game to see when the verdict comes in the second half of this year. That's a really, really important trigger for the stock, not only to stop the spend on the legal costs to ensure that the right outcome comes from the District Court with the full acquittal and then to see the return to the company of the invested capital over the period of time we've been funding the legal fees.
The fourth pillar, which as important as ever is the continued resilience for the company and the strength of the balance sheet to continue to grow in good times and in poor market opportunities as well, which gives us a lot of flexibility to continue to follow the opportunities which create the most value for us.
With that, I'll invite Espen back to the stage and then we'll move into Q&A.
Yes. We have a lot of good questions, as always. If you're joining us online and you have not yet submitted a question, then now is a good time to do so.
We have a lot of questions around the greenfield developments and one around data centers. What's the strategy with these? What are you planning to do? How do you think about this?
Yes. I think the greenfield teams are looking at creating maximum optionality from the portfolio. We're in the communities every day chasing land positions, grid positions and permitting within local municipalities. That exists. That workflow is quite similar across solar batteries, wind to some extent and data centers. Where we have opportunities to co-locate these technologies or to have stand-alone opportunities, we'll follow those which have the best outlook over a long period of time. I'd say today, there's a lot of opportunities coming for data centers.
Our strategy is very similar to the rest of the portfolio. We aim to create those opportunities, identify the projects, mature the projects and look to divest those projects before incurring major capital expenditure. Within data centers, we'll continue to do that where we have the most value within a project, then we'll start to aim towards that higher value point. Whether that's selling it ready to permit, ready to build somewhere in between, we'll look to monetize the options from the portfolio.
I think this year, we'll see our first data centers coming to market, both in the U.K. and Germany, and it will be an interesting data point like our first solar project sales were such that we can steer the market on how much to expect in terms of multiples from these opportunities.
In terms of the greenfield business, how many projects are you targeting to sell per year from this?
We're targeting to sell all of them every year. Every year, we're adding more and more opportunities to the pipeline. Every year, we're seeing more opportunities that are coming to market. I'd say the minimum you should expect is what we sold last year at 300 megawatts should be the minimum going forward, and that's more than enough to cover our capital spend and a significant return beyond that for future growth. At this point in time, I think that's the best proxy, and we'd like to -- or we expect to significantly outperform that certainly this year and the coming years.
When it comes to the value of those projects, is the value you achieved on prior sales, what you expect moving forward? Or do you see higher value on data centers? Or how do you think about this?
Yes. I think the solar projects we sold to-date, I think, range somewhere between low EUR 50,000 to low EUR 60,000 per megawatt. Some projects are better located, shorter distance to grid, lower grid fees, better optimized in terms of radiation. It really depends on the project, but we've now sold 400 megawatts at an average of 55. For the solar projects, I expect that, that's the right number to use at this point in time, but obviously depends very much on what's in front of us.
If we look at data center projects, I think the best located data centers which are coming online in the next 18 months or 2 years have valuations that mean we should deploy all of our resources into chasing that. It's significantly higher than the solar portfolio, and we will be chasing after some of that. I think we need a balanced portfolio that's going to continue to deliver steady returns over a long period of time. Where we have the opportunity to monetize into today what is a very, very hot market for data centers, we will, but it won't be the core business of this. It will be one strand of our strategy within the greenfield portfolio.
In the beginning, you started talking about the Sudan legal case and everything around this. How much do you claim -- will you claim back? Or how much do you expect to claim back in terms of legal costs?
We'll share that and it will become public towards the end of the trial. Orrön Energy in its time has spent an average of around EUR 7 million per year, and this trial has been going on for more than 10 years, and so you can get a feel for the magnitude of legal costs, which is very, very substantial for a company of this size. We will claim back every single cent that we're owed.
Like I said at the start at the opening, the prosecutor has been very, very vague and imprecise, which has forced the defense teams to spend a lot of time and energy, and it has taken 2.5 years in court, which is a very long period. It's been very wasteful in terms of resources and costs, and we'll look to reclaim whatever we're due from the Swedish state.
Final question, when can shareholders expect to see dividends?
I think dividends, share buybacks, capital allocation, they all come into the same bucket. We are still too small as a company. I think we still need to grow to a much bigger size with a more broad and diversified revenue stream coming in or set of revenue streams coming in. There's no discussion for dividends today. I think we need to see the business grow and then we can come back to the discussion in the future.
Great. I don't see any more questions at the moment. Thank you very much, Daniel and Espen and everyone joining us online, feel free to reach out in case you have any further questions or anything you want to discuss. Have a lovely afternoon and see you see you soon.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
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Lundin Energy — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Lundin Energy — Analyst/Investor Day - Orrön Energy AB (publ)
1. Management Discussion
Good afternoon, and welcome to Orron Energy's Capital Markets Day. Today, we will be joined by our CEO, Daniel Fitzgerald; CFO, Espen Hennie; and Commercial Director, Axel Wikner, who will present the 2025 results and the latest strategy of Orron Energy.
We will finish the presentation with a Q&A session. So please feel free to send across questions as you go along, and we will collect and go through them at the end.
And with that, I would like to hand over to Daniel Fitzgerald to kick off this presentation.
Thank you, Jenny, and welcome to all of those joining here and online for our Capital Markets update and Q4 results. This is now our fourth time we're doing this for the Capital Markets update, and we'll be able to share our results in Q4 and for the full year 2025, and then a little bit more insight into the business as we move forward into 2026.
I'll be joined today by Axel Wikner, who will run through the greenfield development, which is a growing part of our business and an exciting part this year as we look into seeing some more recurring revenues from the project development side in Germany and the U.K. And I'll also be joined by Espen, who will cover the financials for today.
In terms of looking at our overall business, I think from a high-level perspective, it is quite a simple business and strategy to understand. We have 380 megawatts of producing assets in the Nordics. We have a large-scale development pipeline, and we're fully funded for growth. When I look deeper than that, it gets a little bit more complex as to how we're operating in a really evolving energy landscape. As we move more and more into renewable penetration in each market in which we operate, we have to evolve. We have to change the ways we operate. We trade power, sell power and balance our energy systems. And that's something that I'm really proud of the team in 2025 for building that flexibility into our operating domain, and we'll touch on that a little bit in the presentation.
That part of our business is the core part that's the cash-generating arm today. It's delivering long-term steady revenues into the business and underpins the finance facility that we use to fund some more of our equity and growth capital across our business. So that really is an important part. And excited to say that 2026 is already looking a little bit more positive than what we've seen over the last 1 or 2 years with strong pricing in the Nordics. Unfortunately, some cold weather, as some of you have mentioned today. But on the business side, it gives us a lot of revenues already year-to-date compared to what we've seen in the last 1 or 2 years.
When I move at the -- into the large-scale development pipeline, we started this business in 2023 and signed our first projects and opportunities. And the second half of last year, we started delivering revenues out of that from Germany. Really happy with what the teams have built, and this is going to be a core part of our business that starts to emerge with recurring cash flows and we'll start to build a bit more scale across that over the coming years. So Axel will go into a bit more detail on that pipeline but I'm really proud of what the teams have been able to achieve and the start of what is going to be a recurring set of revenues and real value creation coming out of that part of the business.
And then Espen's role is to ensure we remain fully funded to make sure that we have opportunities to grow. And although we have seen a slower period in 2024 and '25 in terms of M&A, pleased to see that we're seeing a lot more transactions coming to market this year. I think buyers and sellers are coming closer together in terms of expectations, and we're starting to see more M&A coming forward. So really important that we have that funding line behind us to go and grow this business. I don't believe we should exist in the same size and scale. If we look forward 2 or 3 years, we need to be much bigger. We need a stronger level of recurring cash flows and some more legs to stand on in terms of value creation. And that funding set allows us to do that from within our own means.
If we take a step back into 2025 and look at the highlights for the year, there's no doubt that 2025 was a challenging year for all renewable entities in the Nordics. We saw continued low and volatile pricing. We've seen higher balancing costs coming through the year, and that's changing the way in which we operate our business. We've seen relatively weak pricing through 2025, below the LCOE of new wind coming on stream, and that's impacting the investment decisions across the sector. For us, we delivered 839 gigawatt hours of production in the year, impacted by weather on one hand and some of the price curtailment on the other.
Our revenues, we achieved EUR 34 million of revenues at EUR 36 per megawatt hour achieved price, which is lower than where any of the price forecasters are putting forward their views on the market long term and significantly lower than where we see futures pricing already in 2026. That led to a slightly negative EBITDA of EUR 2 million, noting that we had EUR 7 million still of ongoing costs linked to the Sudan case. And that's down to almost half of that level at EUR 4 million this year, and we expect to see the conclusion of that case towards the end of this year, which will significantly lift the revenues of the company if nothing else changes from 2025.
Net debt of EUR 89 million and importantly, at the end of last year, we realized our first sales from our greenfield platform. We'll touch on that as we go through the presentation but that really is the start of what we see as a recurring revenue stream. We realized EUR 4 million of that at the end of last year, and we have EUR 14 million of that still to come over this year and next, of which some has already been received early in this year.
So as we look then forward to 2026, I see a much stronger start to the year. Year-to-date already, we've seen system price in January of around EUR 100 a megawatt hour, achieved price for us around EUR 80 a megawatt hour of that. So significantly north of where we saw the entire year last year. We have hedged a portion of volumes as the futures price has increased, and that gives us protection to the downside. But if we just forecast that flat futures price into our long-term cash flows, we have a significantly different business to where we're trading today on the share price.
And as I touched on with Sudan, it is really a pivotal year for the company with Sudan. We're going to see the end of the trial in May. And then we're going to see a verdict most likely late Q3 or Q4. We'll know more once the trial concludes in the District Court, we'll know exactly when that verdict is going to be published. What that means for us is our ongoing cost linked to Sudan are down to EUR 4 million for this year. And as of the middle of this year, we will see that dropping to very, very little cost. My view on the verdict has remained unchanged for many years. And now that we've heard all of the evidence in the case, I don't expect anything to come that would change that view. We will reach a full acquittal at the end of the year. And importantly for us, I think the trading in the share today is mostly through the retail arm of the market, and we have some institutions still in there, but there's a range of institutions who are waiting until we see the end of this case. And as we go into the latter part of the year, I think for us anyway, delivering on the production volumes, delivering on a stronger Nordic price seeing the recurring revenues coming out of the greenfield business and the end of the Sudan trial, it really opens up a new phase for the company as we exit the year, new institutional owners in the share.
The equity comes back on the table as an option to use to grow this company accretively and there's so many more tools with a much stronger platform behind us. So I really see 2026 as an important formative year for the company where we put some of the old legacy issues behind us and then really see the recurring revenues coming out of the greenfield business and operating business.
A very short recap on our Nordic operations and overview. We have 1,000 gigawatt hours of production spread primarily across SE3, SE4 and Finland in some of the higher-priced regions, and we tend to take a premium to the system price because of that location. We have a range of assets that have grid connections secured today that have land positions secured. And in our view, that asset base should be perpetual in its lifetime. We should be able to repower, extend lives. We should be able to add combined batteries and operational sites on the same grid connection. And so that work is ongoing day-to-day in the Nordics.
That's coupled with a greenfield portfolio of around 1 gigawatt. And today, we're seeing a lot of value in the flexibility space. As I look at this asset base and renewables, we should be producing renewables as close to a baseload generator as we possibly can. We need to add storage. We need to add flexibility. And I'm proud of what the operating teams in the Nordics have been able to do through the course of '24 and '25 in expanding that flexibility across our business. Today, there's limited value in some of the new build solar and wind across the Nordics but that's going to change over time. We see with the increase in flexibility, we're going to see value coming back into that part of the sector. And so we really need to build -- continue to build that foundation for the future.
The last pillar in the Nordics is on the M&A side, and we have acquired 500 gigawatt hours since the inception of the company, a little bit quieter in 2025 but I see deals coming back into the market at accretive levels this year. Consolidation is really important across the sector now. There's a number of players of our size and scale where it makes sense to combine. We're seeing that with Eneo who have stepped into a range of transactions. We've seen some of our public peers stepping off the market. And so it is getting to a smaller space but there is consolidation still to do on the operating side. And with the financing behind us, I see us moving more and more in that space this year.
Stepping into the power generation side of the business, which really is the core cash-generating arm of the company. We delivered 839 gigawatt hours of production, and you can see the seasonality on the left-hand side of the graph here, where we produce more in the winter months in stronger pricing and a little bit less in the summer months. Importantly, as we look over to the right-hand side, we've seen 2 years of quite difficult conditions in the Nordics. If I look at 2025 alone, we curtailed around 240 gigawatt hours worth of production either through poorer weather than average or through price curtailments. So that weak pricing, especially through the summer of last year, has led us to shut down production when prices have been below our variable cost of production.
And when we look at our asset base on a long-term average, we should be producing around 1,000 gigawatt hours is where the technical potential of this asset base is. We've given guidance this year or a forecast this year of between 800 and 950 gigawatt hours. And that assumes we have 130 gigawatt hours worth of curtailment with some spread because of weather conditions. If I look at what's happened already year-to-date, we've had very little, if not no price curtailment with the futures price as it is. That's going to impact this production guidance, and we'll be able to share more as we go through the year based on how the weather conditions evolve and where we see the market pricing. But centering around that 1,000 if we look at the long-term potential of the company, we should be forecasting around that 1,000 level and then moving year-to-year depending on the market conditions.
Within our operating business, I touched on this a little bit before around how we should operate and how we should think about the power generation from our business. And more and more today, we need to be flexible in how we produce our power and sell our power. When it comes to pricing, we need to be price-dependent bidding. So as prices are low or below our variable cost, we need to manage our production levels. On the other side, we saw spiking balancing costs through 2025, and that's impacted our ability to earn strong revenues in those months. On some of our assets, we've put -- we've implemented the ability to steer the output of our turbines and reduce our impact on balancing, and that also allows us to earn revenues from the ancillary markets on FCR-D up and down, on mFRR and some of the balancing side. So when I look at a renewable asset in the future, we should have the ability to participate not only in the sale of energy, we should be participating in ancillary services, providing balancing services and steering our output to manage our economics from that asset.
The addition of batteries into that sector is really important, I think, as we move forward, where we can take control of the revenue side of the equation and the cost side of the equation. And again, I'm proud of what the teams have been able to do across our Nordic business in implementing the solutions we need and then operating and trading the power in the right way to maximize revenues, and that's going to make us more resilient as we move forward through the future. We've also focused on OpEx, where we've seen some increase in the underlying OpEx costs. We've also pulled costs out of the business through some of this. So when I look at how we're touching and operating our asset base, that has evolved over the course of the last 2 years. And now that we see stronger pricing this year, our ability to really squeeze more from the assets is going to be important going forward, and it gives us another edge in the M&A discussion to be able to add more flexibility into assets where they don't have that today. So I see this as -- it's a core business for us. It's really important to maintain this and even more important when we look at how renewables should behave in the market in the future.
I won't steal all of Axel's thunder on the greenfield development side but it has been another fantastic year for greenfield development. Germany is really leading in this regard. We sold -- at the end of last year, we sold 300 megawatts of projects at an average price of around EUR 55,000 per megawatt installed. We'll receive those proceeds in milestone payments between now and ready to build. And that total package is worth around EUR 18 million. So in essence, if I multiply that through into the right-hand side of this slide, where we have around 6 gigawatts of projects in Germany, a mix of solar and batteries, we have a fantastic pipeline that's now starting to come more often to market.
As of the start of this year, we have just shy of 300 megawatts that's ready to move into the sales process. We have an ongoing sales process now, which we should see more results from in either late Q1 or into Q2. And then I expect the rest of that 300 to hit the market. Behind that, we have another gigawatt that's going through the late-stage municipal discussions now and becomes the feeder funnel for what's coming in this greenfield pipeline.
So if I look across Germany, and it's -- we get pushed a lot from investors and analysts to give them a number in terms of what we're going to sell and when. I'm sure there'll be a few questions today. But if we look at what we did in 2025 for Germany, I think that's the minimum of what we should expect going forward. The ability to sell around 300 megawatts a year is easily supportable by the pipeline and by what we have in quite late stages at similar multiples to what we've put forward.
The EUR 18 million, we expect to achieve between over '26 and '27, obviously, subject to hitting milestones. But that sort of magnitude then becomes an important recurring cash flow for our business. When I look at the U.K., we've secured gate to grid applications for around 3 gigawatts of projects split between data centers and solar. When I look at the potential magnitude of the revenues from that, it becomes a game changer for the company and material in terms of the market cap. And Axel will touch on that a little bit more in his slides, and we should start to see some revenues from the U.K. later this year.
Putting all of that business together with a view on the overall cash flow of the business. On the left-hand side, you see the operating core of the business, clean of any greenfield proceeds. So between EUR 40 and EUR 60 per megawatt hour, we earn between EUR 40 million and EUR 60 million of revenues from that part of the business on our long-term forecast.
In terms of converting into free cash flow, we see somewhere between EUR 10 million and EUR 30 million of free cash flow out of that part of the business long term. If we look at a futures price this year of around EUR 60 a megawatt hour, we sit somewhere in the base case for this at around EUR 50 per megawatt hour achieved. So we're centering around that as of this year. If I look forward at any of the price forecasters, price decks that we use to gauge the longer term of the business and investors and banks use the same third-party ones, we're sitting at around that EUR 60 per megawatt hour system price across the board. So it really is a strong long-term recurring cash flow out of our producing assets, and if I take just what we divested last year and assume that we're able to do that year-on-year, we're adding a very high EBITDA conversion on that business and a lot of recurring cash flow coming out that could double what we've put forward on this.
And when I look at the market cap of the business today, it really is a fraction of where our value is, and we can earn our market cap in a very short space of time before we even touch any of the upsides in the U.K. business, the data center business or the flexible battery side of the business in Germany. So it really is a strong platform. We've had 2 years of lower performance than we'd like in '24 and '25 and 2026 is starting in the right way.
And it needs no mention but this is a sustainable business. If I look at our ESG performance and our ESG rankings, we rank up there at the top of the industry in terms of sustainability validated by Sustainalytics and ISS. We had no material incidents in 2025. We were carbon neutral across our Scope 1 and 2 emissions. And even of the Scope 1 emissions, we've seen a large reduction in performance based on 2025's numbers. We are releasing for the first time some more detail around taxonomy alignment. I'm pleased to say that we rank very, very highly in terms of our investments on the taxonomy side and the taxonomy alignment. So this really is a sustainable platform as we look at how we produce and how we operate our business.
And then stepping forward into 2026 and what we expect from this year. We expect between 800 and 950 gigawatt hours of production and that range -- we've delivered within that range for the last 2 years. And if anything, based on year-to-date performance, it's probably a little bit conservative when we look at the potential of the assets given the pricing we've seen. In that range, we also have production curtailment based on low pricing up to the same level of what we saw last year. So we will see and guide the market as we go through the year on how the evolution of weather conditions and curtailment looks.
In terms of our cost base, very similar in a large regard to last year. So we expect around EUR 19 million of OpEx, in line with what we delivered last year and G&A expenditure of EUR 8 million. We saved around EUR 1 million of G&A costs through the course of last year, and we're sustaining those savings as we go forward, which has been really important in the low-priced environments that we have seen.
Really importantly, the Sudan legal cost is dropping by EUR 3 million down to EUR 4 million. And as of end of this year, we forecast no ongoing Sudan legal costs based on a positive outcome from the district courts. Our capital expenditure is EUR 11 million, so EUR 1 million less than last year but I expect this capital expenditure to be fully funded out of revenues from greenfield. And those we haven't forecast in any of our cash flows for this year, and Espen will share a little bit more detail on the underlying cash generation of the business.
And so with that, I'll pass over to Axel for a review of the greenfield development, and then I'll come back at the end for a few concluding remarks.
Thank you. 2025 marked a step change in maturity, scale and opportunity for our greenfield development business. Our multi-gigawatt platform across U.K., Germany and France delivered its first divestments of 310 megawatts during the year. This strong track record is the result of the outstanding development teams we've established throughout these 3 countries. We have all the competencies we need to be successful in the short, medium and long term. And we cover everything from GIS, land acquisition, permitting and even into construction competencies. On the back of this strong performance, we've been able to move from originating opportunity into capitalizing on that opportunity.
Starting with a look at 2025 and the performance from Germany in that year, we divested a total of 310 megawatts for up to EUR 18 million in total consideration. These divestments were split between 2 transactions. The first transaction was a single asset Agri-PV project signed in July. Total consideration of EUR 4 million, of which EUR 2 million were paid at closing also in July and EUR 2 million contingent on approval of the zoning plan and Solar Package 1 or equivalent legislation in Germany.
The second transaction was a portfolio transaction signed in December for 3 Agri-PV projects. Total consideration for that second transaction was up to EUR 14 million. And under the milestone structure, we will have received 40% of the total consideration as the projects reach ready-to-permit or RTP. And we will receive 60% of the total consideration as these projects reach ready-to-build or RTB. We expect all 3 projects to reach RTP this year and RTB next year, subject to favorable municipal approvals and grid reservations.
Year-to-date, we have already received EUR 1.6 million for the first project of 93 megawatts. These divestments are, of course, important from a revenue and cash flow perspective but they're also an important validation of our business model, and they show that there is a deep and competitive buyer universe for our projects. You can also use these transactions as a proxy to estimate the value of our broader pipeline, which comes after these first divestments. We have seen a bit of a shift in the market from single project divestments into more portfolio type transactions, and we will continue to stay close to the pulse on that and remain flexible in our approach to capitalize value.
Looking ahead at 2026, we now have an advanced pipeline, which enables this recurring revenue element. This is the first time since inception for this business where we have the combination of scale and maturity, and it offers us very interesting opportunities to crystallize value. We have a total pipeline of 6 gigawatts. It's spread roughly 1/3 on solar and 2/3 on battery projects. Out of the solar portion, we have 1.3 gigawatts of Agri-PV projects with at least land reserved and indication of grid availability. Out of those 1.3 gigawatts, we have 280 megawatts where we have already received the municipal approvals. And in that category of projects, we also have the 90 megawatts, which have reached RTP and where we have an ongoing sales process.
I'm very conscious there's a lot of numbers here but I still want to stick with this 280 number for a little bit longer. And if we go back just 1 year from today at the Capital Markets Day last year, the megawatts in that category was 0. And I think that gives a good indication of the scale and maturity we have today compared to just 1 year back. And it's also a good way of looking ahead what you can expect from 2026 and beyond. So the combination of scale and maturity supports this view that we will now get recurring revenues from this part of the business.
In addition to the solar projects, we have a multi-gigawatt battery pipeline where 900 megawatts have also secured the municipal approvals. These are large-scale transmission connected projects, and we're in close contact with the transmission system operator, and we expect grid offers for these projects late this year or early next year. Once we have the grid offers, we're ready to go to market with these projects. To conclude, Germany remains a core value -- core engine of value creation for us, both in the near and medium term. The combination of scale and maturity and our flexible approach to value creation means that we're well positioned for a strong 2026.
Moving to the U.K. We've been able to secure a successful outcome of the U.K. grid reform. We have a total capacity of 2.9 gigawatt of projects now at RTP with both land and grid secured. We expect to receive the final connection details in the second half of 2026. We have started exploring divestment options, in particular, on the solar side but we're also recognizing the fact that we may want to wait until triggering those divestments until we have the final connection details to maximize the value out of those projects. So looking at the solar side, it's a total capacity of 1.8 gigawatts. You will see the capacity split per the 3 projects listed in the presentation. So 1 project in Devon, 2 projects just north of London. We have completed the pre-permit work for all these projects, and we're ready to either divest or run into permitting.
On the data center side, we've secured 1.1 gigawatts of capacity. And we've done so as data center projects have moved from being IT projects into power projects. And that's a change that has been triggered by the radical increase in power consumption of these data centers. Just a few years back, a big data center would be 5 or maybe 10 megawatts. Today, you can easily see several hundred megawatts of capacity on these data centers or even gigawatt scale. And that means that the power side, where we are very, very confident and well placed to deliver becomes more and more important. Same thing here, 2 data centers are just north of London and one is in the East Midlands. We also have the optionality to offer the ultimate data center operator private wire options for solar and battery projects as a value add. But we're not looking to operate these projects. So it's the similar or the same strategy as we have with our wider development platform where we're looking to divest before large capital commitments. In addition to these 6 projects, 3 solar projects, 3 data center projects, we have a multi-gigawatt pipeline of additional solar and battery projects with land secured and well positioned for future grid application windows as and when the capacity limits change.
So overall, we're in a good position in the U.K. with a strong portfolio coming out of the grid reform. And we do expect some value recognition from the fact that grid connections, in particular for solar are now scarce following the capacity limitations imposed by the U.K. regulator.
So to conclude, we see that our model works. It's repeatable and it's scalable as we've been moving from first sales to recurring revenues. Our initial divestments of 310 megawatts validate our business model, and we have 90 megawatts in addition in an ongoing sales process. After that, we have a large pipeline of 3 gigawatts of near-term solar opportunities across Germany and the U.K., which we will take to market in the coming period. And as I've touched upon, these divestments are important from a monetary perspective but they also validate the quality of the projects. We see that we've, through external validation as part of the first project sales have developed these projects best-in-class.
Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, we now have up to EUR 14 million in contracted revenues from prior divestments. And our development teams are now focused on delivering to unlock those revenues. We expect multiple additional project divestments annually going forward. And the combination of our large-scale pipeline as well as track record from divestments signed to date makes us confident that we can deliver a strong return on capital in this part of the business.
So to conclude, we have moved from investment mode to value realization mode. And with the business being validated with scale and maturity, we're now well positioned to crystallize value near term and achieve annual recurring revenues going forward.
With that, I'll hand over to Espen. Thank you.
Thank you, Axel. Good afternoon, everyone. We'll go through the Q4 financial performance, also touch upon the outlook for '26. Before I kick off, I just want to sort of repeat and emphasize what my colleagues have said there before me that it's been a very, very strong start to the year '26. We are now seeing power prices at levels we haven't observed since 2022. Very solid momentum within the greenfield business on the back of our first divestments, which we announced last year, as you heard Axel go through just now. And lastly, as we all know, the next quarter or in 3 months' time, the trial will end in the Sudan legal case, and we expect a verdict during second half. So lots of things to be excited about for the coming quarters.
If we start then with some financial highlights for the fourth quarter of '25. Power generation was 226 gigawatt hours during the quarter, impacted by low wind speeds throughout the quarter. But on the other hand, achieved price was significantly stronger than the preceding quarter and also higher on a year-over-year comparison. This translated into quarterly revenues of EUR 11 million during Q4, which includes EUR 2 million of revenues from project sales and a corresponding EBITDA of EUR 3 million during Q4. Important to remember that in that EUR 3 million of EBITDA in Q4, we do include EUR 2 million of Sudan legal costs. And as you know, from second half of this year, we don't expect those costs to occur going forward.
Our strong balance sheet and financial resilience is also highlighted here, ended the year with a net debt position of EUR 89 million compared to a total debt facility of EUR 170 million, which provides more than EUR 80 million of available liquidity to fund both our planned activities and also support future growth initiatives.
Then a quick look at some key financial metrics for Q4 and also the preceding quarters going back to the same quarter in 2024. If we start with revenues, you can see there was a significant uptick compared to the previous quarter, explained by both higher volumes and stronger pricing. And also year-over-year, if you adjust for the revenues from project sales, we achieved revenues in line with what we had in Q4 '24. So the lower volumes in Q4 of '25 was fully offset then by a stronger achieved price. And you can see the same pattern also in our EBITDA with a significant improvement quarter-over-quarter and an in-line performance year-over-year when you adjust for the project sale revenues.
A quick look at our achieved price during 2025 for the full year. So the average system price was EUR 40 per megawatt hour in the Nordic region, whereas the average spot price for our portfolio was EUR 46. So that's quite healthy premium of 15% due to the favorable location of our assets with the majority being in SE3 and SE4 in Sweden, which typically then enjoys a premium pricing compared to the Nordic average system price.
For the full year, our other revenues and hedging impact was sort of in combination a wash. And then we deduct the capture price discount, which came in at 22% for 2025 to then end up at the achieved price of EUR 36 per megawatt hour for 2025. And our achieved price, especially on a quarterly basis, is made up of quite a few moving parts, which can be hard to predict and can be quite volatile quarter-over-quarter. But if we take a step back and look at the most important factors that determine our achieved price relative to the system price, on a more sort of longer-term outlook, it is what we have listed on the slide here. Then we need to focus on our portfolio's premium to the system price, and it is the capture price discount, which is namely the difference between the baseload price and the achieved price.
And if you start by the portfolio premium to the system price, as I said, we have enjoyed a very solid premium. And if you look at historic data, it was more than 20% in '24 and 15% in 2025. And again, due to the favorable geographical location of our assets, it's fair to assume also a persistent premium going forward on average. When it comes to the capture price discount, we have seen an improvement from '24 to '25, so a lower discount to '25, 22% for the full year on average. We do expect for '26 and the short to medium term, we expect the capture price discount to stay quite close to the level that we averaged on in '25, so in the 20% to 25% range. And what this means then is if you combine the portfolio premium and the capture price discount, on average, you should expect our achieved price for the full portfolio to be within 10% of the Nordic system price before any hedging impact. And obviously, this will fluctuate on a yearly basis. We'll have some years which can be even higher or lower. But as a long-term average and keeping in mind that we have a couple of decades left of power generation and cash flow generation from our assets, I think this is a very reasonable assumption for achieved price outlook.
Then our cash flow during the quarter and net debt and liquidity. So we entered the quarter with a net debt of EUR 83 million on a proportionate basis. Our cash flow from operating activities during the quarter was neutral but we had a negative working capital impact of EUR 1.5 million. Then our cash flow from investing activities in Q4 was EUR 3.9 million. The majority of this or the largest component is investments into our greenfield projects, so which is essentially short-cycle investments positioning us for future project sales. And when you combine all of this then, we ended the quarter with a net debt position of EUR 89 million.
And -- so then if you shift the focus to the right-hand side of the slide here, you can see our total liquidity of more than EUR 80 million and what is made up of. And that's EUR 60 million of cash that we had at year-end '25 and then EUR 66 million of still available undrawn commitment under our revolving credit facility, which then sums up to more than EUR 80 million, as I said, in available liquidity.
Tax balances. We like to sort of repeat and emphasize this regularly because it is a very material asset, especially relative to the size of the company. So due to several years of investments and expenditures, we have accumulated quite significant tax balances in Sweden and Finland. If you combine the 2 countries, this is more than EUR 500 million in total cash balances, which can offset the future revenues. And the net effect for the company is then a potential cash saving in terms of reducing our future cash taxes to the tune of EUR 100 million over the coming years. So again, very material impact for the company, something which is important to keep in mind when looking at future cash conversion and cash flow projection for us.
And then the cash flow outlook for 2026. We have laid out 3 different scenarios here based on different achieved prices with a low scenario of EUR 35 per megawatt average achieved price and EUR 45 and EUR 55. I guess if you compare to current prices, both achieved year-to-date and future prices, where we have now around EUR 60 per megawatt hour system price average for 2026. It's obvious that at least the low end of this range looks maybe overly conservative as we speak. We want to show a range of outcomes here. And also when it comes to volumes, we are here assuming the midpoint of our power generation outlook, which is an 875 gigawatt hours.
And what we see is that based on these price decks, we expect revenues to end up between EUR 30 million and EUR 50 million for the full year, with a corresponding EBITDA ranging between EUR 1 million and EUR 18 million during '25 based on also the OpEx and G&A, which we have guided on and the legal costs. And if you exclude the Sudan legal costs and as I said before, and as Dan also mentioned, from second half of this year, we expect that to be a thing of the past. Our corresponding EBITDA generation for this year is expected to end up between EUR 5 million and EUR 22 million.
And if you move to free cash flow pre-CapEx, we expect that to end up somewhere between minus EUR 4 million and EUR 13 million for '25 with between breakeven and EUR 17 million after excluding Sudan legal costs. And a couple of things to note here. First of all, we are -- in the figures you see in the bars, we are excluding any future revenues from greenfield sales. So we're only here reflecting what we have actually received year-to-date, which is the EUR 1.6 million mentioned by Aker. And we do target several project sales per year going forward at very healthy EBITDA margin. So obviously, that can have a very profound impact on the figures that you see on the slide here.
And secondly, if you look at the free cash flow pre-CapEx outlook, you also roll in our 2026 CapEx guidance of EUR 11 million and you compare it to our available liquidity of more than EUR 80 million, it's obvious that we have ample headroom and a lot of firepower to support, obviously, our current business plans, but also to pursue a lot of accretive growth opportunities, both organically and inorganically going forward.
So with that, I hand over back to Dan.
Thanks, Espen. Hopefully, we've given you a little bit more flavor for the business, and I'm just going to touch again on the very first slide I ran through. Our business is quite simple. There's 3 distinct parts to it. We have long-term cash generation out of assets that have a 30-plus year lifetime that we expect to run in perpetuity. We should be able to extend life spans, repower these assets, build flexible generation if we're unable to extend the lifespan of a wind farm. And that operating asset base has cash flows that are going to be here for decades. We can see with a short-term price over the last 2 years, it's not been as favorable as we want it to be. But already year-to-date and looking forward, if we forecast a reasonable long-term price in this asset base, we have strong recurring cash flow out of that operating arm of the business.
I see a lot of opportunity there to continue to grow that, to move harder in terms of M&A to see more transactions coming to market and then to bring flexibility into that asset space through batteries, moving ancillary services into how we operate and trading the power. So that really is a core pillar of the company that I feel really, really confident that we can extract a lot of value from that part of the business.
Axel has touched on the large-scale project portfolio. For 3 years, we've been investing into this portfolio. End of last year, we're starting to see revenues coming out of it. The magnitude of what we can deliver out of that is material for us, material in terms of the market cap and material in terms of value for shareholders. We have to keep going on this. We have to see that steady growth in Germany. We have to see conversion into cash flow. We have to see the U.K. delivering the same return from the sales of projects in that domain. When we see that, again, that's a massive step change for the company.
And as Espen touched on, we remain fully funded. We have more than enough liquidity headroom to grow the business. We have more than enough opportunities in the M&A space, investments into our own portfolio or through life extension repowering and other opportunities to continue to grow. As I look at 2026, I feel a lot more optimistic, and I see that reflected in the discussions I have with stakeholders, with investors and others around the sentiment in the renewable sector. We have seen some weaker sentiment in '24 and '25, and it feels like that tide is turning. It feels like we're out of the bottom of the market. We're starting to see more transactions, and we're starting to see more value coming from the renewable space. And I think that will translate into our performance going forward as well.
And so with that, I'll invite my colleagues back to the stage, and we'll move into Q&A.
Thank you very much, Daniel, Axel and Espen. We have a lot of good questions coming in online. So if you haven't sent across a question yet but you're sitting and joining us online and you have a question, please send it across, and we will go through it.
I wanted to start with questions from the room, if there's anyone. Kaleb?
Maybe I'll start off with a bit of a housekeeping question. You guide for EUR 19 million of operating expenses this year but volumes somewhere between 800 and 950. So what production figure is that EUR 19 million figure based on?
Yes, that's based on our midpoint of our outlook. Also keeping in mind that a significant portion of our costs are fixed, although around 30% to 40% will vary with either volumes or price.
Okay. That's clear. And the sort of increase in operating expenses year-over-year, is all of that due to balancing cost? And sort of as a follow-up to that, given that balancing costs are significantly higher in SE1 and SE2 and prices are sort of structurally lower, I guess, could you be looking to divest those assets as you did with Leikanger?
Yes. Maybe I'll take half of the question and Espen can take the other half. Balancing costs, we saw -- in 2025, we saw a change in the market from 1-hour settlement periods on balancing down to 15 minutes. We've seen pricing spike through the summer of last year. What we have seen though in Q4 is those prices have come down to a more reasonable level. We do see it elevated in some markets. So Finland is a higher balancing price in general as is like you touched on SE1 and SE2 with the active steering of our output on the turbines, we're actually making money out of some of the balancing side on MLK today as opposed to spending it and at the expense of some volumes. So I think that solution is now being implemented across the portfolio along with other ones.
If I look at the portfolio we have on Gotland, it has a different wind pattern to the rest of SE3. So by taking it out of the SE3 portfolio and running balancing on its own, we're actually today making a profit out of balancing as opposed to a cost. So are we looking to divest everything is for sale at the right price. Today, the future price in SE2 is too low, I think, to divest assets. It's more a buyer's market in SE2, and we should have the ability to manage and mitigate some of the balancing costs as we move forward.
Anything to add?
Yes. So when it comes to operating costs, I mean, our outlook for '26 is actually lower unit cost compared to actuals for '25. And just to repeat what Dan touched upon when it comes to balancing costs, it's been a positive sequential improvement now. And so Q4, significantly lower cost in terms of balancing across the board compared to the spikes that we saw around summer. So I think sort of what we currently have observed during Q4 is also what we are basing our '26 outlook on in terms of balancing costs.
Okay. That's clear. And you talked a bit about sort of flexible production and the revenue potential from grid services. How should we think about the sort of part of your portfolio that currently at least lacks that capacity like the older Slitevind assets, for example. Is that technically possible to sort of add over time or...
Yes. So this part of the market, I'd say, only really started evolving in the last 2 years when we've seen high volatility and high balancing costs, for instance. So we have the ability now on 80% of our portfolio. We can turn our production on and off depending on price. And each month, we're adding more assets into the ancillary services domain. So we took a decision through the summer of last year to shut down some of the production in SE2 given that the price was lower than the variable cost, and we'll do that on an asset-by-asset basis. If I roll forward another 12 months, I expect our ability to manage these risks to be embedded in how we operate our assets, and it shouldn't be an issue going forward.
And then the question at the end of that is, can we achieve more revenues out of operating flexibly than we can out of just producing into the market. What we've seen this year is we're able to do that. So we should be on par, if not better, by putting all of these services into play.
And maybe 2 more questions. First, how should we think about the sort of contingent milestone payments? Do you expect to receive 100% of the sort of EUR 14 million from the projects you've already sold? And for projects in '26, what sort of blend should we expect both in terms of maturity and technology?
I'll give my view, then Axel can jump in. I expect to receive it all. But the reality is some milestones won't make it through. We have the ability to supplement those portfolios with potentially other projects. So in my mind, we should count on those revenues coming at some point in time, even if it's not exactly that project or that opportunity. The split is difficult to forecast given that it's milestone-based but our view is somewhere evenly over that period, we should start to receive the revenues.
Yes. And I think I touched upon that a little bit in my presentation where we do expect the 3 projects that is part of that sale to reach ready to permit this year, which means then 40% of the total payment this year and 60% next year. We don't take pricing risk on those projects, but we still sit with the development risk. So we need to reach the milestones to unlock those revenues. But as Dan points out, I mean, even if a project were not to go forward, we have a buyer who wants this capacity, and we have an open dialogue where we will be able to add a new project to fill the gap that such project not moving forward leaves them. So I think it's a good assumption to assume roughly 40% this year and 60% next year.
And just a final question. I asked this last year as well. But on buybacks, I mean, as you sort of alluded to, you've had at least 5 buyouts in your space at significantly higher multiples than you're trading at. And if you just sort of compare the private valuation of your assets to your listed valuation, what's the reason you haven't sort of pulled the trigger on buybacks yet? And should we maybe assume it's related to financing or...
Yes. I think there's value in a buyback for sure. I think if you look at analyst average pricing, if you look at where transactions are happening in the market, we should be trading significantly higher than where we are today. I think we -- those discussions very much alive. We have a mandate to buy back some of the shares. As we look at capital going forward, I think there's a lot of opportunities to grow as well. So we have to trade the buyback, which is on paper is a very, very good use of capital against the scale and size, which then we open ourselves to a much broader investor base, and we start to get more value in the stock. So it's not as though you can look at them purely in an Excel spreadsheet and say one is better than the other because one of them will give us a lot more scale, size and opportunity. One of them will effectively shrink the capital available to grow. And I think there's tension in that discussion.
At some price, it absolutely makes sense to do buybacks. That price is today but then we're facing an opportunity to acquire assets at a fraction of where the public to private trades have been happening, which is very accretive on the stock as well. So we will come to market. I know we have a discussion every quarterly results and CMD on buybacks. We will come to market when the conditions are right and the decision is made, and there's no decision today to buy back.
Anyone else in the room have a question? Yes.
Yes. First question is about -- you talk about repowering of wind power. How do you rank repowering of your current assets relative to maybe invest in batteries or other CapEx outlays?
Yes. So each investment we have needs to be accretive on a per share basis is how we generally look at capital allocation. So wind investments have to compete with batteries, have to compete with some capital allocation to greenfield. So if it's not accretive, we shouldn't do it. We have a range of wind farms that will come to end of life in the coming years. We're looking at opportunities for life extension and repowering. We also have the ability to turn some of those projects into battery investments where we use existing land and grid.
In terms of new wind in Sweden, I'd say it's difficult today to make some of those investment decisions. And we've seen that in limited amounts of new wind being built in Sweden. If I look at Chinese suppliers on turbines, we're a fraction of the CapEx compared to a Western supplier. So your investment threshold is much more easily met with some of those options. But with it, you do take some risk being one of the first to deploy those kind of turbines.
So I'd say we're not at investment decision today on repowering. We have a lot of opportunities where we're extending land leases. We're starting the permitting work. And last year, we acquired a suite of the Nasudden asset from Vattenfall, which hasn't been repowered like the rest of Nasudden. So we have some candidates for some large-scale repowering. When it comes time, then it has to compete with the rest of the business. Where I see shorter-term investments, I think, is in the battery and flexibility space this year. We need more and more assets in that domain.
Okay. And also, can you elaborate on the timeline in the U.K. for the data center build-out?
Yes. On the data center side, we're right now moving into permitting on the first project, not yet on the other 2. We want to start with 1 of the 3 projects. it's a bit of a different market where premiums are absolutely crazy if you can connect here and today and then that premium goes down the further out you go. So right now, we're working with a sort of dual track process where, first of all, we need the certainty from the grid connection, which we expect during the second half of this year or absolute worst case, mid-January next year. And we're looking at bridging solutions then between that expected connection date in the early 2030s and yes, late 2020s.
And once we have that ready, then I think we have something we can go to market with. So it's not -- yes, we need a little bit more time, I think, to develop those projects to a more mature state, but ultimately, it can be very, very valuable for us.
And I think that behind the meter, we didn't really explore too much today. But although the grid connection might be further down the line, we have options on the rest of our portfolio. We have around 9 gigawatts of solar that we put into the gate 2 application. We have a range of land positions sitting at Gate 1. You have the ability to build out a solar farm behind the meter to provide power to this. In other sites, we have a gas connection close by, which allows power generation to come on to site. So it's not only limited by the grid connection date. There are some other options to power that site. And if I look at some of the hyperscaler assets, they want 2 or 3 sources of power to their site anyway. So it may be that we can accelerate the coming onstream date by an element by providing behind the meter and then evolving with the grid connection as it's available but it's very early days still.
Okay. I understand. And final question, the 280 million (sic) [ 280 megawatts ] you see any risk that these projects will not come through in the relative near term?
The 280 megawatts?
Yes, exactly.
I think the risk is very, very low because we have received that first municipal approval, the [indiscernible]. And typically, it's the same municipality who later takes the RTB decision. So the risk is low from a development point of view. That being said, it's development. So we still need to get the projects to a stage where we can sell them. But yes, risk is low.
Thank you very much. We have another question here. Thank you.
Just one more question. Can you maybe talk a little bit about the risk of appeal for the Sudan case and the EUR 4 million in legal case costs, is that sort of including a scenario where it gets appealed?
Yes. So appeal is something that's potentially on the table. I think in our view, the evidence we've seen in the trial so far doesn't support anything that the prosecutor is putting forward. So our view is that we will become acquitted in the long run. And I think the Swedish state has spent enough time and energy on this case to not take it further than that. Obviously, if somebody -- if we do see an appeal, then it potentially takes longer to resolve, but I think that verdict has a massive impact if it's -- if and when we get that in our favor. The costs are primarily for the District Court trial to see the end of the District Court trial, and then we'll come back with a view on cost longer term should we be in that case. But the appeals court is essentially a rerun of all of the evidence and witnesses we've heard in the district court case, and we don't rehear those witnesses again. So it is a much smaller operation than what we've seen so far.
Thank you very much. Are there any further questions from the room? No.
We have a lot of good questions coming in online as well. A lot of them are related to the greenfield pipeline. One question is around to what extent are you already engaging in presale discussions on the U.K. pipeline prior to having the final grid details?
We started some select discussions with hyperscalers and the likes, not only because we want to start preparing for a divestment, but also because we want to understand their detailed IT requirements on the projects. We know the power side really well, as I mentioned but the IT side, we need a little bit more meat on the bones for that. And therefore, we've had a few select discussions.
We also got a few questions here around timing for the grid details in the U.K. Do you have a timeline for when you expect to have the grid connection dates? And also, if you have a grid connection date post 2030, how does that affect your divestment time line and valuation?
So I think earlier is better. Everyone is screaming for grid access for data centers today. And we do expect our grid dates to be in the early 2030s, but we're not going to have the grid dates until we get the grid offers expected later this year.
And with the behind-the-meter opportunities, it may be that, that grid date is when we scale up the full project to its full capacity as opposed to when we start. So there are some other options to accelerate on that regard.
And then given the scarcity of projects or power in the U.K. and specialized nature of AI, do you view your AI data center pipeline is more valuable than solar? Or how do you look at that valuation?
Yes, we see some crazy valuations, I would say, in the market today. You see projects transacting at above GBP 1 million per megawatts currently. And typically, the earlier you can connect the higher the value. You also need to be close to the availability zones, which we are for at least 2 of our 3 projects. And then the further out you go, the lower the value is. So it's important to get that grid access locked in and then work if it's more data to work on those bridging solutions so that we can get a premium in that size.
So what's the level of profitability that you expect from future sales? Is the level that you received now with the 76-megawatt project, what do you expect moving forward?
So that's on the solar side then. I think we're not really guiding on a future view on developer premiums but we have now executed 2 transactions for 4 projects. I think the value has been fairly stable over that half year time when we executed those 2 transactions. We have an ongoing process. We see similar values in the market today. So I think that's a fair assumption around that level.
And if we look at the strategy on this business, we're selling at the earliest possible point we can sell the projects. So as we look longer term, we wanted initially this business to be self-funding. We want to see that return on capital early to ensure that the business continues to fund itself. As we move longer in time, we expect to hold some of these projects a little bit longer and receive a higher premium and a higher NPV on some of these assets. So this will evolve over time. We want to see validation of the business model. The premiums we've seen, like Axel said, I think, is representative of where the market is today for solar.
As we move forward, especially in Germany, we're seeing much higher valuations if you're selling projects at ready to build. And given our competence, we'd be more than happy to take that risk to ready to build. However, we want to see the early value creation. So short term, you should expect, I think, that same multiple but longer term, we should be able to execute at a higher level.
And are you planning on looking at data centers also in Germany?
Yes. I think we almost have to when we have that grid competence that we have. It's a little bit earlier, I would say, than in the U.K., but it's something that we're actively looking at.
Good. And then we have a few questions around the stock price. Why has the stock price dropped? And what are you doing to address this?
We're doing the best we can to address it. I think if you look at the sector and for those that are in the market, small cap stocks, if I step across the Nordic space, especially in Sweden, I think small cap stocks over the last 12, 24 months have been hit especially hard as has the renewable sector. So we can't fight against that phenomenon on -- in and of ourselves. So I think the market -- like I said before, the market feels a lot more optimistic. We're up 40% year-to-date on the stock on the back of some of the public to private transactions, some of the multiples in the market, some of the pricing we see year-to-date. So we're already seeing a step change.
In terms of what we're able to do to address that, I think cash generation is really key. We're seeing more of that coming in this year's guidance and what we achieved last year. We're seeing Sudan costs coming down. We're seeing stabilization on some of the savings we've made on G&A are carrying forward into future years. So we're staying on top of that element and generating as much as we can out of the asset base while adding the flexibility.
I think greenfield is going to take a step change this year where we're going to see repeatability on those revenues. That will roll into stock price, I think, once investors get the confidence that, that is recurring. And then finally, with the conclusion of the Sudan case, we're going to see a change on the back of that. There's a range of investors who can't hold our stock or don't want to hold our stock today with that risk. I think once we get through the verdict and get to the back end of that, we are in a fundamentally different position at the end of this year compared to where we entered the year.
And are you looking at listing the stocks on other markets for better liquidity like the U.S. market or anywhere else? Is that an option?
I think if you look across Europe, the Swedish exchange is one of the best in terms of liquidity. If you look at IPO volumes for the last period, Stockholm is the place to be for some of that liquidity. We see a lot more liquidity in our stock than some of our peers and peers is now on the market. So I really think there's a space for a Nordic champion across all of the price regions traded publicly in the Nordics that has a deeper and broader portfolio. So consolidation is something we need to look at. We need to increase the value of the stock from a total market cap perspective. But I think Sweden, we're not looking at listing elsewhere at this stage. I think we need to stay where we are on Stockholm and go and deliver on this year's program, and then we can come back once we're through that to have a broader discussion.
Yes. Perfect. And then the final question, how are you planning to make a profit in the future?
I think I'll let our CFO take that one. But already year-to-date, we're making significantly more than where we have over the last few years. The EBITDA margin on [indiscernible] and the greenfield teams projects is a step change from where we've been in the past as well.
Yes. And I think it's important to remember that for '25 as a whole, excluding Sudan legal case, we generated positive EBITDA. I think we've shown here today in terms of the outlook for '26, we expect quite significant improvement year-over-year in EBITDA and cash generation in '26 compared to '25. And that is also based on quite low volumes. We have significant upside from also generating higher volumes and then obviously, on top of that, greenfield project sales. So I think sort of the path to significant profits is, I think, something we have try to communicate quite well there today.
And although this is #4 in terms of capital markets update, we are still quite junior as a company. We've been investing in the greenfield site. We're only just seeing the revenues. We've been growing our business through M&A. So I think we need to see more of that growth to get to a material size and scale as well. So it's a mix of the underlying business is sound and generating good cash flows, and then we need to scale up and grow to really deliver the upside.
Perfect. Thank you very much. We have no further questions online. And if there are no further questions from the room, I want to thank all of you for joining us here today. And feel free to reach out in case you have any further questions. We're happy to help. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you.
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Lundin Energy — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good afternoon, and welcome to Orron Energy's webcast for Q3 results. Joining me today we have our CEO, Daniel Fitzgerald; and CFO, Espen Hennie, who will run through the report and latest developments in Orron Energy. We will finish with a Q&A at the end of the presentation. So feel free to send across as many questions as you have, and we will collect and go through them at the end. And with that, I would like to hand over to Daniel to…
Thank you, Jenny. And welcome to our Q3 results presentation, where I'll be joined by Espen to run through the financials after we give an update of how we've performed during the quarter and where we are pointing as a company. And I think we've largely delivered in line with our strategy during the quarter. We have seen further headwinds on the production side, both with volumes and pricing, but pleased to share that we do have our first project sales in the greenfield portfolio. We're on track with a range of those developments. And as we look forward into the markets into next year, we start to see increasing futures pricing and increasing performance across the assets, which should lead to higher revenues and higher cash flow for the business as we move forward into Q4 and into next year.
As a quick recap, Orron Energy is the renewable vehicle within the Lundin Group of Companies and the Lundin family being a very long-term value-focused shareholder still standing behind the strategy and supporting our growth in this sector. We have 380 gigawatts -- 380 megawatts, sorry, of operating capacity. And in a normal year, that should generate around 1,000 gigawatt hours of production, and that gives us a long-term recurring cash flow into the company. Within that asset base and some of our greenfield projects, we have the opportunity to add organic growth. We can extend lifetimes of assets. We're looking at colocation of both demand and batteries. We're looking at opportunities to then increase production out of the existing asset bases and use the grid connections and facilities and infrastructure that we have in a more accretive fashion. So that's active across all of our countries of operation. And combined with that, we have greenfield projects which are running across 5 countries, and we're starting to see the first monetization out of that platform, which is really exciting to see and gives us a lot of strength as we move into later this year and early next year.
And as we have done all along, we remain fully funded, fully financed. So we have a debt facility with sufficient headroom to move into significant M&A and transformational M&A. And in markets such as these, there's many opportunities that are starting to come to the fore that we will consider and look at. So we don't need to touch the equity side of the equation. I do know that the share prices can perform a little bit better than what we've seen in the last quarters, but this side of our balance sheet gives us ample flexibility to go and grow into the future without needing to touch the equity side of the equation.
If we look then at the first 9 months of this year, we've produced around 600 gigawatt hours, year-to-date. And that's been impacted somewhat by both weather where we have seen and continue to see some lower wind speeds, not only within Orron Energy, but also within our peer group and any of the producers across the Nordics. We do see a weather pattern over the last quarters that has been less favorable than we expect. We also had an impact in our production from price curtailment, and I'll touch on that a little bit more in the following slide.
When we look at the revenues and EBITDA for the company, we've generated revenues of EUR 23 million, leading to an EBITDA of negative EUR 4 million year-to-date. And Espen will touch a little bit more on the detailed numbers for Q3. And important to note in this, we have seen weak pricing this year. We're seeing futures pricing increasing as we move into next year. We've had Sudan costs, which is more than the negative amount on the EBITDA here. So excluding Sudan, we would be in positive territory on a proportionate basis. And then also, as we look into Q4 and Q1, these seasonally are our strongest quarters. So we expect an uplift not only on volumes, but also on price as we move into the winter months of the year.
Those market conditions have been improving since the summer of this year, and it feels like we're out of the bottom of the trough in terms of pricing. So we have hedged some of the volumes in the second half of 2025. We continue that hedging program into 2026 at around an average of around EUR 58 a megawatt hour baseload pricing. And that gives us a bit more certainty on the revenue side of the business and allows us still with the unhedged volumes to profit from market improvement while protecting ourselves against the downside scenario, which we have seen both in 2024 and 2023, certainly in the weaker months and quarters of the year.
Very pleased to share in our greenfield platform that in July we sold our first project, and that was a 76-megawatt agri PV project for a total of EUR 4 million consideration. Now half of that is being paid upfront. We have a profit of EUR 1.1 million, which is flowing through our profit loss this quarter. And any of the future contingent payments that we receive on this have no cost associated. So we'll see those coming straight through the profit and loss at the headline amount. So this does really return a good performance in terms of invested capital. And now we're starting to see multiple projects that are going to hit key milestones over the coming 6 to 12 months, and we expect this recurring revenue to continue in our business as we look forward.
If I look in a bit more detail at power generation, we've got a slide here which looks at the power generation by quarter over the last 3 years. And you can see there where seasonally we produce more and less. And so there's no surprise that Q3 is a weak quarter seasonally against where we normally perform on an average basis. Now even saying that we have been impacted by weather in the quarter, we have seen lower wind speeds, and we expect now to be around 850 to 900 gigawatt hours as a full year 2025 performance in terms of production.
If you look quarter-by-quarter, looking back through the years, we're not a long way away from where we have been last year. And Q3 is lower than where we expect and the 2 elements driving our weather and price curtailment. And if I look at our forecast for this year around that 900 level, we've curtailed around 100 gigawatt hours this year based on low pricing. So that would have put us up into a record year had we not curtailed, and that's a factor driven by the lower pricing. So as we move into Q4, we expect volumes to increase. We expect prices to increase. And as prices increase, we're going to see less of the price curtailment. So not only do we see seasonal volumes improving, but with price, we also see additional volumes coming to fruition.
And I'm really pleased by what our team have been able to achieve in terms of making our assets more and more flexible. MLK is really leading on this through ancillary services and price-dependent bidding with some management around the balancing costs, we've seen between EUR 1 million, EUR 1.5 million of additional revenues coming across our portfolio, either additional revenues or decreased cost just by adding this flexibility to our portfolio. And that really gives us some levers to play with as prices either move low or high on the balancing markets, as the volatility improves, we now have many more tools to play with. And as we go forward, we expect Karskruv to receive the validation from SVK to allow us to participate more fully into those markets, and we're continuing that rollout across the rest of the fleet.
So as of today, we have 80% of our portfolio active in the price-dependent bidding. We have 20% of our portfolio, which is MLK today, active on ancillary services and Karskruv is just awaiting final approval from SVK to then provide those services as well. So that gives us a good platform into next year. And then as prices pick up through the next year, we expect to see higher revenues, higher volumes and returning back to a normal production year for Orron Energy.
And adding into that normal production year is hopefully some more recurring revenues from the greenfield platform. And this platform really is delivering as expected. We have a multi-gigawatt pipeline of opportunities across 5 countries. I'd say the most important U.K. and Germany at this stage that are close to recurring revenues and material recurring revenues with the Nordic pipeline being a little bit longer dated and some projects that we'll likely invest in ourselves, and France is still growing as a region. But U.K. and Germany are really driving that greenfield pipeline forward.
We see governments in both of these countries very supportive with high ambitions. We see high investor appetite for projects, and we still see electricity pricing and support schemes that really drive us to deliver a good developer premium out of these projects. So those 2 countries definitely are where a bulk of our focus is. And short term, we should see those recurring revenues coming.
Our projects are developing as per plan. As we touched on, we've seen the first project sale in Germany. We have a second project that ready to permit and a range of projects that are coming later this year and early into next year. And we're looking at multiple ways to monetize this platform. I'd say the market is moving more and more towards portfolio sales. and a broader discussion around multiple opportunities rather than individual project sales. And so we'll investigate both of those options as we move forward and share with the market more information as we see the results from that.
In the U.K., we have been waiting for a while on the NESO grid reform. We now have a secure time line where NESO have committed to confirm both the outcome of the reform, what that means for every single project and to offer up the new grid connection agreement. So that process is going to start communicating back with project developers as of the end of this year. And so through the early part of next year, we expect to hear more of the results from that, and we'll be able to move the U.K. into that sales process.
As it stands today, we have 8 projects, which is between 7 and 8 gigawatts worth of opportunities across solar, co-located batteries and co-located data centers within that group. So we need to see the outcome from NESO, we need to see the detailed results, and then we'll be able to communicate more with the market as we move into the new year.
And with that, I'll pass over to Espen to focus on the financials and the Q3 numbers.
Thank you, Daniel, and good afternoon, everyone. Kicking off with some of the financial highlights for the quarter. Reported power generation came in at 135 gigawatt hours, this was, as Dan mentioned, negatively impacted by low wind speeds during the quarter, in addition also to our voluntary curtailments as a response to periods of low prices, which also, as Dan said, has saved us material amounts of costs without losing any significant revenue. So that's a very valuable flexibility to have.
In addition to the reported figures, we also have 10 gigawatt hours of compensated volumes. These are volumes which we receive compensation related to either ancillary services or related to operational downtime, which is covered under our availability warranties.
The achieved price for the quarter was EUR 31 per megawatt hour, and I'll go through that in a bit more detail on one of the later slides. We had revenues of EUR 2 million from our initial project sale in Germany, which was announced in July. And when we add that to our revenues from power generation, total revenues for the quarter came to EUR 6 million. And EBITDA, excluding noncash and G&A items for the quarter came in at minus EUR 2 million. And we ended the quarter with a net debt position of EUR 83 million, which leaves the company in a very strong financial position, supported by significant liquidity headroom under our EUR 170 million facility.
Taking a look at our full year guidance. We are delivering in line with our plans and are therefore also reiterating our outlook for the expenditure items shown on this slide. We have seen a lower balancing costs compared to the previous quarter, partly driven by the measures that we have taken to mitigate this. This is of course very positive and encouraging, but it's also important to remember that these costs still remain at elevated levels compared to recent history. So there's still potential for some cost reductions going into next year or beyond if we start to see a trend back toward more normalized levels for this item.
Next, let's look at some key financial metrics for the third quarter comparing to the previous quarters going back to the same quarter last year. Revenues from power generation were down compared with the preceding quarter. This is due to lower volumes. However, they are significantly stronger than the corresponding quarter last year, driven by a significantly stronger achieved price compared to Q3 in 2024. And on top of the revenues from power generation, as mentioned earlier, we also had EUR 2 million from our first greenfield project sale, which is then the upfront payment of the project sale with a potential EUR 2 million contingent payment at a later stage, which we expect a conclusion on that contingent payment during 2026. That brings total revenues to EUR 6.1 million, EUR 400,000 higher than in the previous quarter.
We can also see an improvement in EBITDA and CFFO compared with both the previous quarter and the same quarter last year. and the quarter-on-quarter variance is mainly explained by lower OpEx, driven by the lower balancing costs that we've seen this quarter compared to the very elevated and high levels in Q2.
Let's now look at some of the details on our achieved price for the third quarter and also the year-to-date period. The Nordic system price averaged EUR 36 per megawatt hour in the third quarter, while the average production weighted spot price for our portfolio was EUR 45. Ancillary service income and sale of GOOs added EUR 1 per megawatt hour to our achieved price, while hedging reduced it by EUR 5. And the fact that our hedges ended up out of the money means that prices turned out quite a lot higher than expected, which of course is very beneficial for the company to our revenues and cash flow.
The capture price discount was just over 20% in the quarter, leading to a quarterly achieved price of EUR 31 per megawatt hour for Q3. And for the year-to-date, the average Nordic system price has been similar to Q3 at EUR 36, while the average production-weighted spot price for our portfolio has been EUR 43, a fairly significant premium which is explained by the favorable geographic location of our power producing assets.
Ancillary service income and the sale of GOOs contributed positively by EUR 2 per megawatt hour and hedges had a negative impact of EUR 1 before deducting the capture price discount, which has been 21% year-to-date. And this results in an average achieved price for the 9-month period of EUR 35 per megawatt hour, which is very much in line with the system price for the same period.
Moving then on to the quarterly reported cash flow and our liquidity position. CFFO, excluding working capital was minus EUR 3.6 million with a negative working capital impact of EUR 0.8 million during the quarter. Cash flow from investing activities totaled negative EUR 0.2 million, and this consisted of EUR 2.3 million in capital expenditures, which is mainly investments into our greenfield projects, and this was almost fully offset by proceeds of EUR 1.7 million from the announced project sale. So please keep in mind, we have EUR 1.1 million reflected in our P&L. But on a cash basis, the proceeds were EUR 1.7 million, with the difference then being book values.
Then along with other minor invested related cash flows, we had a total cash flow leading to an ending proportionate net debt position of EUR 83 million at the end of Q3, and this translates to just under EUR 90 million of liquidity headroom, combining our cash balance with the EUR 70 million of undrawn capacity under our revolving credit facility.
Summing up then with an updated cash flow outlook for 2025. This reflects the actuals for the first 9 months of the year, and we are applying achieved prices in the range of EUR 35 to EUR 45 per megawatt hour for the fourth quarter. This represents the likely range of outcomes based on current future prices and also takes into account the baseload power price hedges we have entered into with the details shown on the slide.
Starting with revenues, we expect these to end up between EUR 32 million and EUR 35 million with a corresponding EBITDA, excluding Sudan legal costs, in the range of EUR 4 million to EUR 7 million. The EBITDA breakeven price is expected to be around EUR 33 per megawatt hour for the year. Including the Sudan legal costs, which we do expect to be significantly lower next year, EBITDA is projected to end up between minus EUR 3 million and breakeven.
Looking at free cash flow before CapEx, we expect to end up between breakeven and plus EUR 2 million, excluding the legal costs, which we believe demonstrates resilience given the weak wind conditions and soft pricing that we have experienced throughout the year. When including legal costs, the same range moves to between minus EUR 7 million and minus EUR 5 million.
Finally, here, we are also showing the baseload power prices, baseload power price hedges that we have entered into for next year. And the approach, as also Dan commented on, it is very much the same as for our 2025 hedges. We lock in prices for a modest share of our power generation volumes when we consider the market conditions sufficiently attractive. This provides strong downside protection against lower power prices, but also it also allows us to benefit if market conditions improve since the majority of our volumes will remain merchant. So with that, I'll hand it back to Dan.
Thank you, Espen. And before we go into Q&A, a few concluding remarks as we normally do. So I think our assets generate long-term cash flows. We have to look at this business with a 20- and 30-year lens and note that the market conditions will be different during those periods. We're going to see highs like we've seen in 2022 and lows like we've seen in the last 1 or 2 years. But our asset base will continue to produce for a very long period of time. And with the organic growth and opportunities to extend life spans and to improve production and add other technologies, it gives us a really good platform that we can use over the longer time horizon to really generate strong revenues.
We're financially resilient with significant headroom under our finance facility that allows us to move in terms of growth, investing into greenfield projects, new business and new opportunities. And I'm really pleased to see that our greenfield pipeline is starting to deliver revenues as of this quarter, and we expect that to continue as we move into the coming year. As we see markets improve, we've taken opportunities on hedging. We're starting to see some more M&A that's coming to market now as we're seeing the pricing improve and with the firepower that we have on the balance sheet, we can move in that sector as well.
So I remain optimistic as I look forward. We're positioned in some really good markets with pricing coming back, volumes coming back and look forward to certainly Q4, Q1 and into 2026 as we see stronger performance.
So with that, I think we move over to Q&A, and I'll invite Espen to come and join me back up here again.
Yes. Thank you very much. We already have a lot of good questions. So if you have a question and you haven't submitted yet, I suggest strongly that you do so as soon as possible.
So let's start with the market. "It's currently a quite challenging market environment. Will you keep investing in new wind farms in Sweden given this? Or do you have any other plans?"
Yes. I think it is an interesting time in the market. When we have troughs like this, it is a good time to build the business. So in the Nordics, if I look at greenfield projects, it's quite difficult to sanction greenfield projects today given where the pricing sits. And we haven't seen much of that supply coming on. And over a longer period of time, we will see the impact of that supply. Sweden has turned off some of the offshore wind, they've rejected the permits for a whole range of offshore wind, and we're not seeing that growth in the onshore domain. So I think it's challenging to sanction, but that will come back in the future. So we continue to have that exposure through greenfield projects.
And on the flip side, we're seeing at this point in the market some really interesting opportunities on the producing asset side that gives us the ability to scale up our production. So I think it's an interesting time in the market, but it is challenging for new projects for sure.
"So speaking of M&A, what kind of opportunities are you seeing in the market right now?"
I think players in the market are really being rewarded for flexibility. So what we're seeing in terms of the really high premiums in the market, those with flexible power generation or the ability to move their volumes and managing balancing costs, some of the frequency services, there's a strong return on that. So for batteries, ancillary services, et cetera, we see good returns. Data centers are the hot topic in the market today for any players with a data center opportunity, and we're looking at a range of those in our, broadly across our portfolio.
I'd say more on the traditional front, I think producing assets in today's market where we do see the low pricing now is a good time where we're seeing sellers' ambitions are coming down to match where the market is at the moment. So that's a bit more interesting for us. But unfortunately, nothing to share until we've got there on an investment or a transaction, and we'll come back to the market when the time is right.
"And when it comes to strategic partnerships or mergers with other energy companies, is this something that you're considering or looking into?"
I think we're always open to the discussions. I think with the share price where it is, we're not willing to dilute significantly for a nonaccretive transaction on a per share basis. So we have to be mindful of that. And we also have the Sudan case, which both Espen and I touched on. The Sudan case comes to an end at the end of next year with the judgment. We see costs coming down significantly. We will see the -- hopefully see the full resolution of the Sudan case at the end of next year, and that opens the door for more material M&A, I think.
"And speaking of share price, given the current share price level, are you considering buybacks?"
Yes, I think buybacks are always a discussion that is in every meeting we have with the Board and with most investors as well. I think it's a very attractive point to be buying back our own shares. There's also a very, very important growth element that we need to take into account where we need to deploy capital accretively on a per share basis. And our company is still too small. We need to be much bigger in size to really diversify the revenue streams and improve the cash flow. So there's a range of competing priorities for that capital allocation. Share buybacks is absolutely one of them. And again, should the conditions be right, then we'd come to the market with that announcement.
"And going back to the challenging market, how do you plan to make up profits?"
Yes. I think we're burdened today by the costs in the Sudan case, that's for sure. And if I were to remove the Sudan case costs from our financials, we'd be back to positive EBITDA. I think it's challenging for a lot of operators to make a good return at current market conditions. And so I think we need to be a little bit patient with the price coming back with Sudan going away and then with some scale up of the company, I think there's a fantastic pathway to profitability.
When I look at the greenfield platform, that's already profitable on a project-by-project basis based on our first sale. So when we see the recurring revenues coming out of that and the business getting more self-funding, I think we'll see much more return coming out.
Espen, I don't know if you had anything.
No, I fully support all of that. And I think the key thing, yes, like you mentioned, only one project sale, we expect multiple of those going forward, temporarily -- a temporary situation now with high costs. And also the fact that power prices are below breakevens for new projects. So I think some of that means that we can have a quite constructive view on future only both market pricing and also earnings potential for the company in the medium to long term.
"And great to see a lower capture price discount. Is this the level you expect moving forward?"
Yes. I think I mean capture price discount, obviously, can fluctuate widely quarter-to-quarter, hard to precisely forecast it over a short time frame. I think it's -- our expectation is that we will be within the 2025 percentage range. We have been 21% year-to-date, so slightly lower than sort of what we have seen earlier, partly due to also -- also depends on the volume of curtailments, voluntary curtailments, but between the 20% to 25% within that range is our sort of -- I think it's a very prudent estimate and assumption going forward.
We also have a few questions on the development side. "So congratulations on the first project sale. Is the price per megawatt what we should expect in future sales? And can you give us some flavor on the current pipeline?"
Yes. I think in terms of the multiples, what we saw in our first German project sale is largely what we're seeing across the portfolio, whether it's U.K. or Germany. Today, in the Nordics, there's less appetite. So I'd say it's a lower premium or more difficult, but certainly U.K. and Germany are around that level. As we look forward, though, I think the market is changing. People are valuing more project portfolios, which spread the risk. We're starting to see buyers looking at forward sales of projects with cost coverage or stand-alone complete exit project sales. So it really depends on the structure as to what that looks like going forward, but it remains -- I'd say it remains very, very attractive for us as a developer premium.
When I look at the broader portfolio, we're only just getting started. We have already 3 to 4 gigawatts in Germany, some of those very early stage, some of them coming towards later stage. We have a range of battery opportunities where we have favorable grid positions for those. In the U.K., we've submitted our first 8 gigawatts into this reform process, and there's another massive pipeline behind that waiting for certainty around the process, and then we'll move through the land acquisition and development process. So for me, this is -- again, it's a 10-year business, 10-, 20-year business where we expect to see the returning recurring revenues coming now, we'll start to mature that business even further and start to carry some projects longer as we move forward.
"And do you think it's realistic to -- that we will have a first sale from the U.K. greenfield portfolio in 2026?"
I'm very hopeful that we get there. We were hoping to be there already in 2025. And we didn't quite get there because of this grid reform process. So I can't control what the energy system operator is going to do going forward, but they have committed to a time line for giving us the confirmed grid offers. And once we receive those, then we'll be able to move forward on the project sales and the market is still very strong in the U.K. So I'm very, very optimistic that we'll see something out of the U.K. in 2026. And given the size of the projects, this is very, very material for the company.
Good. I think we covered all of the questions. I don't see any further incoming questions. So any concluding remarks from your end?
No, I think a challenging Q3 for us, if we're completely honest, we have seen lower volumes, lower pricing, but very, very enthused about looking forward into 2026. We're seeing stronger market pricing for energy. We're seeing hedging coming in at favorable levels. We're seeing projects hitting key milestones and very optimistic about what the coming 6 to 12 months looks like. So we look forward to sharing more information early in the new year with our Q4 results.
Great. Well, thank you very much. Have a lovely afternoon, everyone, and feel free to reach out in case you have any questions. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
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Lundin Energy — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Finanzdaten von Lundin Energy
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Jun '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 404 404 |
59 %
59 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 32 32 |
-
8 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 373 373 |
-
92 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 184 184 |
15 %
15 %
46 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 18 18 |
116 %
116 %
4 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 156 156 |
16 %
16 %
39 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | -138 -138 |
54 %
54 %
-34 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | -200 -200 |
47 %
47 %
-49 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen SEK.
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| Hauptsitz | Schweden |
| CEO | Mr. Fitzgerald |
| Mitarbeiter | 60 |
| Gegründet | 2001 |
| Webseite | www.orron.com |


