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📊 Peer Group
📈 Was ist das?
Die Peer Group sind die Unternehmen mit dem ähnlichsten Geschäftsmodell. Sie dienen als Vergleichsmaßstab, um eine Aktie einzuordnen.
🧮 Wie wird sie ausgewählt?
Nach Ähnlichkeit des Geschäftsmodells, also Unternehmen aus derselben Branche, mit vergleichbaren Produkten und einer ähnlichen Kundengruppe. Nur so vergleichst du Äpfel mit Äpfeln.
🏛️ Wofür ist sie wichtig?
Ob eine Aktie günstig oder teuer ist, lässt sich am ehesten im Vergleich beurteilen. Ein KGV von 18 oder ein EV/FCF von 20 wirkt je nach Maßstab günstig oder teuer. Die Peer Group liefert dabei den treffsichersten Maßstab: Unternehmen mit ähnlichem Geschäftsmodell, die denselben Bedingungen unterliegen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
Liegt eine Kennzahl unter dem Peer-Durchschnitt, ist die Aktie relativ günstiger bewertet, über dem Durchschnitt entsprechend teurer. Ein Abschlag zur Peer Group kann eine Chance sein, aber auch einen Grund haben (zum Beispiel geringeres Wachstum). Der Vergleich ist ein Startpunkt, kein Urteil.
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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 3,09 Mrd. € | Umsatz (TTM) = 9,17 Mrd. €
Marktkapitalisierung = 3,09 Mrd. € | Umsatz erwartet = 7,09 Mrd. €
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 7,48 Mrd. € | Umsatz (TTM) = 9,17 Mrd. €
Enterprise Value = 7,48 Mrd. € | Umsatz erwartet = 7,09 Mrd. €
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF) | ex SBC
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF setzt den Unternehmenswert eines Unternehmens ins Verhältnis zu seinem Free Cashflow. Die Kennzahl zeigt damit, mit welchem Vielfachen des aktuellen Free Cashflows ein Unternehmen bewertet wird. EV/FCF ex SBC berücksichtigt zusätzlich aktienbasierte Vergütungen (Stock-Based Compensation, SBC). SBC verursacht zwar keinen direkten Cash-Abfluss, kann bestehende Aktionäre jedoch durch die Ausgabe zusätzlicher Aktien verwässern. Deshalb wird SBC bei dieser Variante vom Free Cashflow abgezogen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
EV/FCF ex SBC = Enterprise Value ÷ (Free Cashflow (TTM) − SBC)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EV/FCF ermöglicht eine Bewertung auf Basis des Free Cashflows und ergänzt damit gewinnbasierte Bewertungskennzahlen wie das KGV. Die Variante ex SBC berücksichtigt zusätzlich die wirtschaftliche Belastung durch aktienbasierte Vergütungen und ermöglicht dadurch eine konservativere Betrachtung aus Sicht der Aktionäre.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF bedeutet, dass der Unternehmenswert im Verhältnis zum aktuellen Free Cashflow niedrig ist. Die Ursachen dafür sollten jedoch immer im Unternehmens- und Branchenkontext betrachtet werden.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF bedeutet, dass der Unternehmenswert im Verhältnis zum aktuellen Free Cashflow hoch ist. Das kann beispielsweise auf hohe Wachstumserwartungen oder eine vorübergehend schwache Cash-Generierung zurückzuführen sein.
- Bei positiver SBC und positivem bereinigtem Free Cashflow fällt EV/FCF ex SBC in der Regel höher aus als das klassische EV/FCF.
- Besonders aussagekräftig ist die Kennzahl bei Unternehmen mit relativ stabilen und gut einschätzbaren Cashflows.
- Bei negativem oder sehr niedrigem Free Cashflow ist EV/FCF nur eingeschränkt aussagekräftig und sollte nicht wie ein gewöhnliches Bewertungsmultiple interpretiert werden.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF) | ex SBC
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt an, wie viel Bargeld tatsächlich übrig bleibt, nachdem ein Unternehmen seine Betriebsausgaben und Investitionsausgaben gedeckt hat. Der FCF ex SBC zieht zusätzlich die aktienbasierte Vergütung ab, um den Cashflow um den Effekt der nicht zahlungswirksamen SBC zu bereinigen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Free Cashflow ex SBC = Operativer Cashflow − SBC − Investitionen in Sachanlagen (CAPEX)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF spiegelt die tatsächliche Finanzkraft eines Unternehmens wider – unabhängig von den bilanziellen Gewinnen. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum ein Unternehmen für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder den Schuldenabbau hat. Der FCF ex SBC zieht zusätzlich die aktienbasierte Vergütung ab und zeigt, wie hoch die Cash-Generierung nach Abzug der SBC ausfällt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free-Cashflow-Marge | ex SBC
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel Free Cashflow ein Unternehmen im Verhältnis zu seinem Umsatz erwirtschaftet. Der Free Cashflow entspricht vereinfacht dem operativen Cashflow abzüglich der Investitionsausgaben. Die Free-Cashflow-Marge ex SBC berücksichtigt zusätzlich aktienbasierte Vergütungen (Stock-Based Compensation, SBC). SBC verursacht zwar keinen direkten Cash-Abfluss, kann bestehende Aktionäre jedoch durch die Ausgabe zusätzlicher Aktien verwässern. Daher wird SBC bei dieser Kennzahl vom Free Cashflow abgezogen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Free-Cashflow-Marge ex SBC = (Free Cashflow − SBC) ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen seinen Umsatz in Free Cashflow umwandelt. Ein hoher Free Cashflow kann dem Unternehmen finanziellen Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe, Schuldentilgung oder weitere Investitionen geben. Die Variante ex SBC berücksichtigt zusätzlich die wirtschaftliche Belastung durch aktienbasierte Vergütungen und ermöglicht dadurch eine konservativere Betrachtung der Cash-Generierung aus Sicht der Aktionäre.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen einen hohen Anteil seines Umsatzes in Free Cashflow umwandelt.
- Das kann dem Unternehmen mehr finanziellen Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe, Schuldentilgung oder Investitionen geben.
- Die Free-Cashflow-Marge ex SBC berücksichtigt zusätzlich die mögliche Verwässerung durch aktienbasierte Vergütungen.
- Besonders aussagekräftig ist die Entwicklung über mehrere Jahre. Sinkende Werte können beispielsweise auf höhere Investitionen, Veränderungen im Working Capital oder eine schwächere operative Entwicklung zurückzuführen sein.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Iren Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
9 Analysten haben eine Iren Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
9 Analysten haben eine Iren Prognose abgegeben:
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aktien.guide Basis
Iren — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Iren Group conference call. My name is [ Sak ], and I will be your conference operator for today's event. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the call over to Carlo Dubini, Head of Investor Relations, who will begin today's conference. Thank you, and please go ahead.
[Interpreted] Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining the conference call to present the Iren Group's results for 30 June 2026. The results will be presented by Executive Chairman, Luca Dal Fabbro; and CFO, Giovanni Gazza. At the end of the presentation, we will hold the usual Q&A session. I will now hand over to Luca to present the results for the period.
[Interpreted] Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Results approved moments ago by the Board of Directors confirm the strength of our business model and provides solid foundations for the growth expected in the second half of the year. First half performance was supported by significant organic growth in our regulated activities, demonstrating the quality and resilience of our business portfolio, which is characterized by a 72% share of EBITDA generated by regulated and semi-regulated activities.
An additional contribution came from our efficiency synergy plan, which generated about EUR 11 million of benefits during the period, already reaching 55% of the target expected for the full year 2026. These positive factors were partly offset by unfavorable weather conditions, which affected hydroelectric production, already reduced by extraordinary maintenance activities planned at the beginning of the year, and which had already required reservoir levels to be drawn down at the end of 2025. From a financial standpoint, operating cash flow amounted to EUR 512 million, allowing us to fully finance our investment plan of approximately EUR 410 million, up 4% compared with the first half of 2025.
Turning to Page 3 as usual, we review the main economic and financial results for the period. EBITDA reached EUR 732 million, up 1% compared with the same period last year. This result was mainly supported by three factors. First, organic growth of approximately EUR 30 million during the semester, driven by our network businesses, contributed around EUR 10 million overall, also thanks to the evolution of the regulatory framework, mainly affecting a higher reflection deflator and the recognition of higher operating costs.
Second, a favorable energy market environment, both in the day-ahead market and in the ancillary services market and capacity market which generated an overall improvement of approximately EUR 50 million compared with last year's result. Finally, the progress of our synergy plan, which as already mentioned, contributed EUR 11 million during the period. These positive effects were partly offset by several negative factors.
In particular, lower hydroelectric production, impacted by the lack of rainfall and reduced water availability in reservoirs, which resulted in a production decline of approximately 190 GWh, the progressive normalization of gas sales margins in line with expectations, the slowdown of energy efficiency projects, particularly in the area of repeating initiatives. This is a rather general factor on the market. EBITDA amounted to EUR 380 million, down 2%, mainly due to higher depreciation following the commissioning of investments carried out over the last 12 months.
Group net income amounted to EUR 182 million, which was offset by a higher tax rate compared with last year, standing at 30.5%. Technical investments during the period amounted to EUR 409 million, up 4% compared with last year, mainly driven by investments by the energy business unit related to the ongoing installation of air coolers at thermal power plants as well as the expansion of distribution networks.
During the semester, significant investments were also made in the development of water and electricity networks, waste treatment and disposal facilities, including the completion of an organic waste treatment plant in Liguria and digital transformation through IT projects. Net financial debt increased by EUR 54 million compared with year-end 2025, despite the payment of EUR 189 million in dividends.
With this, I will hand over to Giovanni for a more detailed review of the performance of our individual businesses and the main operational developments during the semester.
[Interpreted] Thank you, Luca, and good afternoon to all of you from my side as well. As usual, we will start our review with the networks business unit represented on Page 4. In the first half of 2026, the networks business confirmed its growth trajectory, reporting EBITDA of EUR 274 million, up 4% compared with the same period last year. The growth becomes even more significant when considering the impact of non-recurring items. In particular, in the first half of 2025, non-recurring items contributed approximately EUR 21 million, EUR 8 million related to the technical quality incentive scheme, EUR 3 million related to adjustments for the integrated water service, and EUR 10 million related to inflation adjustments of gas operating costs in accordance with the ARERA Resolution number 570. This was in 2025.
In the current semester, by contrast, we recorded only EUR 5 million of non-recurring items relating to water service adjustments. Excluding recurring items, year-on-year EBITDA growth would have been 8%, corresponding to an increase of EUR 90 million. EBITDA growth was therefore driven by organic growth and positive regulatory effects, which contributed approximately EUR 10 million together, with a significant contribution from the group's synergy plan, which amounted overall to EUR 11 million.
The positive performance of this business unit was mainly supported by the integrated water service and the electricity distribution, two business areas that continue to benefit from our investment-driven growth strategy, as demonstrated by the increase in their [ RAB ], up 6% and 4% respectively. As you can see on the lower right side, capital investments by the business unit reached EUR 177 million, mainly focused on water service networks and electricity distribution networks. For electricity distribution, we also expect a significant accelerator in the final part of the year with investments expected to increase by approximately EUR 30 million compared with 2025.
These investments are aimed at making the electricity network more resilient and better equipped to support the growing electrification of consumption as well as the impact of increasingly challenging climate conditions, especially in the summer. Among the main operational developments during the semester, we highlight the signing, also following the evolution of previous legal dispute, of the premium agreement for the sale of Egea Acque, the operator of the integrated water service in part of the Cuneo province to the in-house company CO.GE.S.I.
Completion of this transfer process is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. Second, the continued progress of the main infrastructure projects in the water, electricity, and gas sectors, as well as the strengthening of smart metering and remote reading programs. These initiatives will contribute over the coming years to further improve service quality and operational efficiency.
Moving to Slide 5, the environment business unit recorded EBITDA growth of 12%, reaching EUR 148 million. This increase was supported by the recognition of extraordinary adjustments relating to previous periods amounting to EUR 60 million, linked to the higher valuation of sorted waste treatment activities, as well as by the collection of a EUR 4 million insurance reimbursement related to the fire that occurred in 2024 at a plastic sorting facility.
Looking now at the main operational trends in the period, we can highlight that the waste collection business increased by approximately EUR 1 million compared to last year, following the tariff increases introduced by regulation, despite higher operating costs related to the increase in personal expenses due to contract renewals and fuel costs.
WTE reported an EBITDA of EUR 60 million, substantially stable compared with last year. During the first half of 2026, performance was impacted by a temporary plant shutdown due to technical issues, first at the Portibone CWT plant, and subsequently at the two waste-to-energy facility. Material recovery plants reported annual result of EUR 8 million and showed mixed trends.
The performance of organic waste treatment plants or landfill plants remained negative, and the revenue is a limited part in recovery, and they were impacted by lower treated volumes due to a plant shutdown lasting approximately two months, and conversely, the performance of the other material recovery plants was positive, benefiting from higher operational efficiency at the wood treatment plant, higher prices for the treatment of separately collected plastic waste, and the ramp-up of a new paper and cardboard sorting and recovery facility.
The negative trend in landfills continued, as also shown in the chart on the right-hand side, which highlights the lower volumes managed, down 8%. This is due to the situation at certain sites and EBITDA decreased by a total of EUR 4 million, and this reduction is expected to be partly recovered in the second half of the year, thanks to higher waste inflows following the expansion of certain sites, including the CSAI landfill, which now has an additional available capacity of 80,000 tons, the [ Manduria ] site, with available capacity of 125,000 tons until 2027. Another two facilities, Barricalla and Poggio alla Villa will have available landfill capacity until 2035.
The energy business unit on Page 6 closed the first half the year with EBITDA of EUR 166 million, down 5% compared with last year, mainly due to lower hydroelectric production volumes and fewer energy efficiency projects. Analyzing the performance of the different business lines and the main year-on-year variation. For renewable generation, hydroelectric, photovoltaic, recording an overall EBITDA decrease of EUR 30 million. In particular, hydroelectric production recorded an overall decline of EUR 50 million during the semester due to lower [ hydroelectric ] volumes, down 190 GWh, and the expiry of a significant portion of green certificates, down 70 GWh in the semester, with an expected impact of around 200 GWh for the full year. These are factors reduced results by EUR 21 million and EUR 4 million respectively. These impacts were partially offset by higher captured energy prices, particularly, on unhedged hydroelectric production.
Secondly, photovoltaic volumes increased by 10% since the commissioning of two new photovoltaic plants in Noto and Caposetto. This growth was achieved despite some technical issues that prevented full utilization of installed capacity, and to a lesser extent, the frequent curtailment measures requested by Terna, particularly during the spring period. Overall, photovoltaic generation contributed positively with EUR 2 million during the period.
Generation from CCGT and thermal power plants increased by EUR 5 million. This improvement was mainly attributable to merchant thermal generation activity at Turbigo, which increased electricity production by 22%, corresponding to 220 GWh, benefiting both from improved capture clean spark spreads and from a higher number of operating hours. Cogeneration of CCGT plants was substantially stable, also due to the lower availability of the Moncalieri plant following issues that emerged in the final weeks of June, affecting the cooling system caused by lower water flows in the channels serving the plant due to the dry period in the last two months.
The capacity market and the ancillary services market provided a growing contribution compared with the first half of 2025, generating overall EBITDA of approximately EUR 63 million, up EUR 8 million year-on-year. In particular, the MSD market increased by approximately EUR 6 million compared with last year, highlighting attractive opportunities for operators, like us, with flexible assets and the ability to modulate plant output during the periods of high demand. [ 4th ] point. District heating. It recorded a 4% decline in volume sold due to an earlier than usual end to the heating season compared with 2025 due to a warm April. Despite the lower volumes, EBITDA increased by EUR 6 million. Finally, as already mentioned, energy efficiency recorded a lower level of activity due to the reduction in rebuilding projects which had still represented a significant contribution during 2025.
We conclude the review of business units with the market business units presented on Page 7. In the first half of 2026, the business unit recorded EBITDA of EUR 144 million, down 2% compared with the same period last year. The performance mainly affects 2 factors that were already highlighted during the previous quarterly update in March. The progressive normalization of unit margins in the gas business with an impact of approximately 5 years of EBITDA per customer. This trend was expected following the exceptional market conditions experienced in previous years and will continue during the year, although to a lesser extent and the reduction in the customer base, which also resulted in lower gas sales.
We also highlight a reduction in average gas consumption per retail customer, reflecting greater attention to energy usage in a context of generally higher energy costs. The competitive environment remained highly challenging, resulting in a net reduction of approximately 50,000 customers during the semester. Against this backdrop, the group decided to push its strategy, increasing its focus on value creation, prioritizing the quality of acquired customers and favoring physical acquisition channels rather than simply pursuing customer-based expansion. In particular, we progressively reduced mass customer acquisition campaigns and investments in digital channels characterized by high acquisition costs and higher-than-average churn rates.
To understand the evolution of EBITDA to group net income, let us move to Page 8. Starting from the operating performance already discussed, we can highlight first, the depreciation and amortization increased by approximately EUR 30 million, mainly due to the commitment of investments carried out over the last 12 months, in line with the group's infrastructure development plan.
Second, provisions for doubtful receivables increased by approximately EUR 2 million, mainly within the environment business unit due to the transition from a collection model based on municipal taxation to a system based on a service fee directly paid by users to the group. Third, the average cost of debt remains stable at 2.36%, confirming the effectiveness of our financial management strategy in a market environment that continues to show elements of volatility.
Fourth, the tax rate, including an increase in the IRAP tax rate, so that's approximately 30.5%. Fifth, the result attributable to minority interests decreased by approximately EUR 2 million, mainly following lower performances recorded by some equity accounted companies. Taking all these effects into account, group net income reached EUR 182 million, substantially in line with the first half of last year, with an increase of only EUR 2 million.
We complete our economic and financial review with the evolution of the net financial position illustrated on Page 9. As of 30th June 2026, net financial debt stood at EUR 4,276 million, increasing by EUR 54 million compared with year-end 2025. Analyzing the main drivers of the change, we can see that operating cash flow reached EUR 530 million, more than covering technical investments during the period. This was also supported by the tax credit disposal program related to the Eco Superbonus scheme, which continued during the semester and generated total cash proceeds of EUR 146 million.
With regard to net working capital, the increase of EUR 283 million can be attributed to the following factors. EUR 50 million related to the medium to long-term receivables, associated mainly with extra-cap tariff items in the water cycle and waste collection businesses, and the remaining EUR 230 million cash flow was driven by 2 seasonal effects.
First, investment payments reflecting the acceleration in project executio occurred at the end of last year, with the related cash outflow from payments occurring mainly in the first part of the current year. Second, the seasonal effect related to CCGT and thermal generation.
During the winter quarters, high production levels generate a favorable working capital effect, as the increased sales revenues are collected faster than payments for gas procurement. And finally, the item related to M&A and disposals includes cash proceeds of EUR 68 million, derived from the sale to Cogesi of the integrated water service business in the province of Cuneo, which was already discussed when commenting on the networks business unit.
I will now hand back to Luca for the closing remarks and for the update of the 2026 financial guidance.
[Interpreted] Thank you, Giovanni. We will conclude the presentation, as usual, with an overview of the outlook for the coming months. As anticipated during our previous conference call, the expected growth for 2026 will be concentrated in the second half of the year, and in particular, in the fourth quarter, for various reasons. First, we expect the growth trajectory of the networks and related businesses to continue, supported by ongoing investments. Second, excluding the one-off item that affected the results of environment business units in 2025-2026, we expect EBITDA to remain broadly in line with the previous year. The higher operating costs in waste collection will be offset by the improved profitability of material recovery plans.
Third, we expect a positive performance from generation activities in the coming months, thanks to a more favorable energy market environment with higher spot prices, despite an 80% hedging level on second half production, and Cleanspark spreads that continue to ensure adequate profitability for thermal generation. These factors will offset the lower hydroelectric volumes expected also in the coming months as a carryover effect of the low hydroelectric availability experienced during the second quarter.
For the market business unit, we expect a progressive reduction in margins due to a highly challenging competitive environment, and we expect the continued implementation of our efficiency synergy plan, which we estimate will generate approximately EUR 20 million of benefits by year-end. Considering the adverse weather conditions and the consequent impact on hydroelectric production, we have decided to update our 2026 guidance. The revised guidance reflects the lower contribution expected from hydroelectric generation, with expected production volumes reduced from 1,200 GWh to 1,050 GWh.
The group's industry fundamentals remain unchanged, and the positive outlook for the other businesses is confirmed. In particular, we have placed EBITDA growth of approximately 3% compared with 2025. Technical investments of approximately EUR 950 million. Net financial debt to EBITDA ratio for this table at around 3.1 times, implying expected year-end net working capital above the 2025 level by more than EUR 150 million. Group net income growth of approximately 2% compared with 2025.
With this, we have concluded the presentation, and we can now open the Q&A session. Thank you for your attention.
[Operator Instructions] The first question arise from Fabio Suarez.
2. Question Answer
[Interpreted] The first question is about the guidance and the guidance update that you made, which is relatively low. The question is, is this due only to the hydroelectric issue, which is only set up over [ ARERA ] or are there other dynamics that moved you to review the guidance and made it lower? I would like to know the different moving pieces.
Second question. About an update on the negotiations and the review of legal framework for the hydroelectric generators in Italy. I would like to know if you have some comments on the consultation document of ARERA on the implementation of the model from 2028 onwards, and what the dynamics you will see in the supply business during the second half of the year. Thank you.
[Interpreted] Okay, the guidance update is linked to our review of analytical production. In May, we had foreseen analytical production of 1.2 TWh, and today, we foresee 1.05 TWh. So we corrected the amount of the GWh because we don't see it in our reservoirs, and also in the turbines part. So this update takes into account the progress in the autumn period, because the first part of the year is characterized by snow, and the second part of the year by rainfalls, and we have considered at the moment a standard moment for the last 10 years. This EBITDA reduction is partially offset. We don't see a direct effect of this 150 GWh that amount to about EUR 80 million. It's not directly affecting the EBITDA because we have a recovery in the business unit, in the network business unit. As you can see from the semester results that offset and reduce the overall effect due to the hydroelectric production.
Concerning the concessions and the hydroelectric regulations, the government made an extension and gave ARERA the role of remodulate the investments, and there is a mechanism to increase and change specific procedures, and this applies to the autonomous provinces of Trento and Bolzano, but it also applies to Emilia Romagna and Piedmont. So we are waiting for ARERA's response and then we can implement. We are proceeding at the regional level in Piedmont, Lombardy, et cetera, for the normalization through an extension of the concessions or through bidding. We have no clear framework at the moment, and we ask the government because we need more certainties. So at the moment, we are waiting for answers, and we ask the government for answers. So we will see in the next few months what will happen.
Concerning [indiscernible]. Yes, we have seen the consultation document. We were expecting a document that was more in line with the electrical side. So we believe there could be some benefits, but not so significant. We don't have any comment, either positive or negative. We are assessing the situation and also the parameters. Also, because it cannot be applied to all the items, there are some items that may be excluded. And concerning [ gas ] distribution, we also expect a high investment profile, and we will continue to do so.
Concerning the fourth question, concerning supply. In the semester, we had a reduction of EUR 5 of margin per customer. This dynamic is expected to continue in the second half, not on the same level, so we don't foresee a down EUR 10 per customer. We expect a minus EUR 6 or EUR 7 per customer. This is related to margins. As to customer base, the network business unit is still elevated. It's around 25%, 27%. And this is also due to our highly selective commercial policy. And so we expect about -- a [ reduction ] of about approximately about 40,000 customers in the second half of the year. The movement of the customer base on the offers. We see that at the moment, we see many fixed price offers, and there is a trend towards fixed price offers. Today, we have 68% at the changing rate and 25% at fixed price. This fixed price component is totally covered, so we don't have any risks due to changing prices.
The next question comes from Emanuele Oggioni.
[Interpreted] I have few questions. The first one is related to the levels, an update on the hedging levels for 2026, and in particular for 2027, in terms of volumes and the percentages of volumes, and also prices. The second question is a follow-up on the market supply, so a detail on churn rate. In the Q1 conference call, you were talking about a churn rate around 26%, 27%, and I would like to have an update on this and your view on the rest of the year. Also a breakdown, that was mentioned before, but I couldn't hear. If you talk about the exact percentage of fixed price contracts. So if you could be more granular about this. For the waste business unit, you already commented on the trend for the H2, but I would like more granularity on the recovery moving parts of the waste business in the second quarter here.
[Interpreted] Yes, concerning hedging, starting with 2026, we are in July, the end of July. We can give some anticipatory data. We covered 80% of renewable production. So this is updated with the guidance at about EUR 100 to EUR 105 for GWh. And we also have a percentage of not hedged renewable production and we have covered 105 GWh. Concerning 2027, at the moment, we keep the forecast that we already made. Renewable production 2,150 GWh, and we covered about 50% of this production at a price of EUR 100 per MWh.
Concerning market supply, I confirm our full-year churn rate from 25%, 27%. There were no changes in the churn rate dynamics. We had communicated 26%, 27%, and now we communicate 25%, 27%. Concerning the mix, this is the chance to give you an update on this dynamic, because we are moving from -- the customers are moving from a fixed price to a variable price. In May, we had declared 30% fixed price, 70% variable price. Now we are at 32% fixed price and 68% variable price. So this is a progressive process.
Concerning environment, the results and the semester performance was impacted by the EUR 60 million related to previous variance, which cannot be replicated in the second half of 2026. And on the other hand, we had an important one-off last year at the year-end. So in comparing the two semester and two years, we must clarify this point. From a management and business point of view, we foresee a recovery of margins on EBITDA. As you could hear, we had two technical problems in the Foggia-Bonassai site and in the Iren site, and this cannot be replicated.
As we anticipated, we also have the beginning of some new landfills, some new plants, the CSAI and the Barricalla plants. So we'll have a higher contribution from these kind of plants. On the other hand, on the collection activity, we foresee it essentially in line with the one foreseen in the first semester. Overall, I would like to highlight that we are seeing in the first semester a recovery of the margins of treatment and sorting plants, plus EUR 6 million in the first semester, and this improved performance is forecasted also for the second semester.
The first question arises from Francesco Sala from Banca Akros.
[Interpreted] The first one is about the progress of the network activity in the fourth quarter. What are the main drivers of the improvement you have foreseen? The second question is on the Cleanspark spread progress. What is the electricity demand and how the current consumption in Italy went?
[Interpreted] Yes, I would like to start with the last one because it is very interesting. And at the moment, we have very high prices. We can see all the points of EUR 108. In the full year, we have forecast at the level of about EUR 480 per MWh and we have an increase of EUR 10. This dynamic is also affected on spark spreads. But there are some opportunities, but they are limited in certain hours, at certain times. So the spark spreads can be captured only at some moments in the morning for thermal electrical plants or in the evening. So we need a lot of flexibility and great availability of the plants.
As we explained, the availability of the plants at the moment is conditioned by the possibility of cooling the plants. We already had some limitations in the Moncalieri plant, and we can foresee some contractions if the temperatures continue to be so high in the tropical land. So we can see important Cleanspark spreads, but they are limited in time, in hour duration. And most of all, we need full availability and flexibility of thermal plants.
Concerning networks, in 2025, we had important one-offs in the first semester linked to the [ cordial ] services and the commercial quality. So we foresee that the dynamic can be replicated in the second semester, except for the one-offs. So as we highlighted an important increase in margins in the first semester, we foresee the same in the second semester because the network business takes advantage from organic growth linked to the level investments and from synergies. So as we drove the group amount to EUR 10 million organic growth in the first semester and an important part of EUR 11 million of synergies.
The next question comes from Roberto Letizia from Equita.
[Interpreted] I would like to ask very quickly, because I lost the first part, I want to be clear that the new guidance includes also the solution of the plants at Turbigo. So a quick verification because I lost this part before. And also a specific question about 2027, because from your indicator, the hedge coverage for next year is relatively low, which is positive at the moment. Because the cover for 2027 increased for the first quarter in overall year. So I wanted to ask if you foresee an acceleration in the second part of 2027. Iif this can be translated on the full benefit for Iren's profitability, or if you have some consideration on the integrated margin.
[Interpreted] Yes, I confirm that the guidance update also takes into account the thermoelectric production. Especially this factor does not allow us to have important upsides, so it does not significantly lower the forecast. But it is a justification of the fact that at the moment, we do not see large upsides on the thermoelectric production side in August because we do not have a full availability of the plants.
Concerning 2027, we are at 45%. Our targets are always reaching a 70%, 80% coverage for the whole production, of renewable production and we are at that level because it is true that prices are high. But if we look at the forecast for 2027, they are very high in the first semester, and they are very high in April, May. So at the moment, we are not in a condition to significantly close the coverage. Certainly, at the moment, this is an opportunity. We believe that prices can be adequate to be nearer to delivery. So in the second part of the year, there could be some opportunities to exploit, to improve the level of our hedges on renewable production.
The next question comes from Davide Candela from Intesa Sanpaolo.
[Interpreted] I have two questions. The first one is a clarification on the guidance and a follow-up on the answers you have already given. This review was slightly lower is because you did not take into account the positive one-offs. So is there another contribution in contrast with your previous forecast? Does this include IRAP effect and what are the moving parts in this sense?
The second question is related to [indiscernible] and network heating. Can there be an impact on your forecast? Or can it be considered a pass-through cost inside your models? Last question about data centers. Do you have an update on that? Maybe on your potential, especially in Turbigo, or your cogeneration plants.
[Interpreted] Concerning the first question on the guidance, I confirm that the one-offs were already known in May, when we gave you the previous guidance. I also confirm that the guidance on net profits of up [ to percent ] includes all the IRAP effects coming from the decree raising energy bills. Concerning EPS, yes, we already included the worst-case scenario, and this does not have an impact on our project scenarios. These are very lucrative projects that we plan to implement as soon as possible following our plan. And concerning data centers, we are working with all other plants and with potential partners. We are negotiating with a business model that is typical for us. We do not give equities as other operators do, but we [ give ] the benefits and the savings on the energy transportation costs. So we include a part of the savings on energy bills. We give them [ OPDA ], providing them energy, and we take it. So today, this is not an upside, but as soon as we will sign the first agreements next year, this will be included in the plans and the data improve.
If there are no further questions, I will give the floor back to the room for the conclusions.
[Interpreted] Thank you for your questions, everybody, and thank you for being here. Now we greet you and thank you. We will see you at the next meeting. Thank you very much.
[Portions of this transcript that are marked [Interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]
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Iren — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Iren — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Hello, and welcome to Iren's conference call for results of the first quarter of 2026. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the floor over to Carlo Dubini Dacco, Head of IR, to begin today's call. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, everybody, and thank you for joining this conference call presenting Iren Group's results as of March 31, 2026. The results will be presented by our Executive Chairman, Luca Fabbro; and our CFO, Giovanni Gazza. At the end of the presentation, there will be the customary Q&A session. I will now hand the floor over to Luca to present the results for the period.
Thank you. Good afternoon, everybody. And thank you for being with us today. The Board of Directors, which met earlier today approved results as of March 31, 2026, characterized by an EBITDA essentially in line with the previous year, while laying the foundations for the growth expected in the coming months, allowing us to confirm the 2026 guidance, as we will see later.
The first quarter EBITDA performance also stands out for the spending of regulated semi-related activities, which increased from 69% to 73%, up 4 percentage points and for achievement of synergy targets in line with the expectations of the business plan. Net financial debt, down compared to year-end 2025, stood below EUR 4.2 billion. Thanks to a solid cash flow generation, which more than covered external investments during the period. Investments amounted to EUR 190 million, up 2% compared to last year.
Moving to the next slide, we analyze in detail the main financial and economic results. EBITDA reached EUR 480 million, in line with last year, driven by organic growth following investments made in regulated network businesses and renewable generation, contributing EUR 4 million. The positive contribution from the optimization plan for waste material recovery plants up EUR 5 million, partially offset by landfill saturation. Higher profitability in district heating, which, however, did not fully offset lower hydroelectric production and the slowdown in energy efficiency activities. Positive results from the synergy plan, which contributed EUR 4 million during the quarter and increased competition in supply activities and the related normalization of margins.
EBIT amounted to EUR 212 million, down 5% due to higher depreciation and amortization and increased provisions for debt reserves. Group net profit amounted to EUR 129 million, down 5%, reflecting EBIT performance and a tax rate below 30%. Technical investments during the period totaled EUR 190 million, up 2% and are mainly allocated to water networks, waste collection, and other products. Net financial debt decreased by EUR 4.5 million. Thanks to the operating cash flow, which more than covered investments during the period.
I will now hand over to Giovanni for a more detailed analysis of single business dynamics.
Thank you, Luca, and good afternoon to all of you from me as well. As usual, we'll begin with the results of the network business unit on Page 4. In the first quarter of the year, EBITDA increased by over 5%, driven almost entirely by the integrated water service, mainly due to organic growth, up EUR 3 million linked to investments made in the resulting increase in RAB. The overall RAB business -- business in RAB reached nearly EUR 2.5 billion, up 4% compared to the previous year. Investments during the period amounted to EUR 82 million and were in line with the business plan. They were aimed at improving service quality through network modernization and efficiency improvements.
Investments in electricity distribution showed a temporary slowdown compared to last year, which will be recovered during the remainder of the year.
Regarding the environment business unit on Page 5. Results were substantially in line with last year, because first, growth in waste collection activity was offset by higher personnel costs related to increases provided for in the recent renewal or collective labor agreements. Second, WTE plants reported EBITDA substantially stable at approximately EUR 30 million, slightly impacted by the extraordinary shutdown of the Poggibonsi WTE plant, which limited operations during this period.
Third, profitability recovery in waste treatment plants amounted to approximately EUR 5 million. This demonstrates the expected turnaround and the operational improvement of these assets. This also confirms the assumption of an incremental annual contribution of approximately EUR 10 million. The improvement in treatment plants was partially offset by the lower contribution from landfills due to the saturation during 2025. This trend also reflected in the decrease in waste volumes managed. On the other hand, during the period, we obtained authorization to expand certain landfills, allowing for additional disposals of approximately 100,000 tons, and we expect to fully utilize these volumes by the end of the year.
The energy business unit on Page 6, closed the first quarter with EBITDA of EUR 112 million, down 4% compared to last year, mainly due to lower hydroelectric volumes and fewer energy efficiency projects. Nevertheless, we benefited from increasing renewable capacity. Looking at the various business lines in greater detail, renewables, hydroelectric and photovoltaic, recorded an EBITDA decrease of EUR 10 million due to lower hydroelectric volumes, down 94 gigawatt hours, caused by reservoirs being particularly empty at the start of the year because unlike last year, scheduled extraordinary maintenance work was carried out. And this resulted in empty basins at the end of 2025.
We also noted the negative effects associated with the expiry of a cyclical portion of green certificates, down 30 gigawatt hours in the quarter and down to 100 gigawatt hours over the year. These negative factors were partially offset by higher energy prices and increasing photovoltaic volumes, thanks to the Noto photovoltaic plant, which has become operational and which with the available capacity of 20 megawatts. We also provide a greater contribution in the coming quarters.
Production for CCGT and thermoelectric plants was overall in line with last year. The merchant thermoelectric plant in Turbigo increased electricity resold by 7%, up 50 gigawatt hours, benefiting both from improved capture clean spark spreads and a greater number of hours with positive spark spreads. In fact, we continue to serve clean spark spreads improving only during delivery periods, which does not allow us to implement a preventive hedging policy. CCGT production, on the other hand, was flat quarter-on-quarter, as plant utilization during winter months is mainly linked to heat production. The capacity market and the balancing services market were in line with last year, contributing EUR 24 million and EUR 4 million, respectively.
District heating benefited from an increase in unit margins, mainly related to positive hedging dynamics compared to the first quarter of 2025. Today, the group manages more than 150 million cubic meters of district heated volumes. And we point out that during the first quarter, thanks to an effective commercial campaign, we increased connected volumes by 282,000 cubic meters, and acquiring volumes amounted to approximately 600,000 cubic meters, which will be connected to the network before the next heating season.
Finally, to the lack of a transfer of tax incentives for new energy efficiency projects. We conclude analysis of business with the market business unit on page 7, which reported EBITDA of EUR 96 million, down 4% compared to 2025. This change is mainly due to the previously mentioned normalization of unit gas margins and a 1% decline in the customer base, which was impacted the reduction in gas volumes. Increasing competition in the sector, which led to a net loss of approximately 20,000 customers in last quarter was addressed by implementing a more selective and value-focused acquisition policy.
In particular, the group slowed down mass acquisition campaigns, and especially reduced investments in web channels characterized by higher acquisition costs and higher churn rates, while continuing the development of physical branches, both in historical and prospect areas. The group currently manages approximately 1,450 direct and indirect point of sale and continues to focus on the high quality of customer service in support of customer retention to minimize churn rate.
To analyze the elements from EBITDA to group net profit, we move to Page 8, where we note an increase of approximately EUR 9 million in depreciation and amortization due to investments made last year. Higher bad debt provisions of approximately EUR 3 million mainly related to the environment BU due to the transition for environmental hygiene service revenues from a tax collection by the municipality to a direct billing by the group, which has direct effect on our credit. A stable cost of debt at 2.35%. A lower contribution from equity accounted companies now approximately EUR 10 million. A tax rate that despite increase of the IRAP rate, remains below 30%. And finally, a reduction of approximately EUR 2 million in minorities due to the lower results for certain companies. This leads us to a group net profit of EUR 129 million, down 5% compared to the same period last year.
We conclude the financial analysis as usual, with the evolution of the net financial position on Page 9. This position stood at EUR 4,177 million, slightly down compared to year-end 2025. The EUR 45 million decrease during the period is attributable mainly to a solid cash generation, which more than covered investment cash outflows, totaling EUR 192 million in the quarter. Second, to the disposal of our first portion of tax credits accrued under the Ecobonus scheme. And we note that by year-end, we will monetize additional Ecosuperbonus tax credit for approximately EUR 7 million. Third to a seasonal decrease in working capital -- in net working capital. However, we confirm expectations for year-end net working capital to increase by approximately EUR 100 million, mainly related to growth in medium and long-term tariff receivables in the water and waste collection sectors.
I now hand the floor back to Luca for the conclusion of the presentation.
Thank you, Giovanni. We conclude the presentation by looking ahead to the coming months. Unlike last year, which was characterized by a very strong growth in the first quarter, this year's trend will be different. The first quarter which as we have seen, was substantially in line with last year, lays the foundations for the growth expected in the second part of the year. In particular, the coming months will be characterized by the continuing growth trend of regulated and semi-regulated businesses, the recovery in profitability of material recovery plants for approximately EUR 7 million, the positive contribution from the energy value chain, essentially in the second half. The positive contribution from the continuation of the synergy plan already launched, the implementation of planned investments with the increased allocation to water and electricity networks. The continuation of synergy plan is already launched.
Therefore, we confirm the guidance announced at the end of March and in 2026, we expect a growth of 4% compared to 2025. Technical investments of approximately EUR 150 million. The EBITDA ratio, which would be stable at approximately 3.1x. And as customary to quarter results, we provide an indication of group net profit expected to grow over 2% at year-end compared to 2025 including impacts arising from the Energy Bill decree.
We can now move on to the Q&A session. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Roberto Letizia by Equita.
2. Question Answer
I have 2 questions. On the credit side, you gave some data about the components of the growth. And the 4% results is compared, is considered useful, and is a very important result for the EBITDA today and the revenues. Can you give us a bit more bridge also on the quantitative sides on the components that will constitute the growth of 4% on the year and on the net profits? Power prices are a bit down. So can you give an expectation of what impact this can have on the remaining covers not made this year?
And also the power prices for spreads. To conclude, we can see the improvement of treatment activities, which were not so good during the last report. And can you please say us what is the expected trend on the business side for the next years?
Yes, I would like to start by the covers to confirm that in 2026, we covered 70% of renewable production. We expect renewable production of 2,500 gigawatts per hour. With about 500 gigawatts per hour that today are not covered. So at the variance of the price of a gigawatt hour, we have an increase over EBITDA of about EUR 5 million. So this is our position concerning renewables. Concerning thermoelectric production, the coverage at the moment is very low as we already communicated in March because the forwards continue to do foresee negative spark spreads. So if we had to finance coverages, the margins would be negative. We won't do that, especially because in delivery, as you have seen also in our results on the -- for the first quarter, on the thematic side, we have positive results. So we will have to manage a situation of depending on margins, in delivery without having to do some coverages.
Concerning 2027, we foresee a growth also in renewables production from [indiscernible] to 2,200 gigawatts per hour. And this will be linked also to the development of the photovoltaic plants. And as you have seen, we have the Noto plant, and in 2026 also our other plants will become operational. So today, we have covered 40% of this production. And we did it at a value of about EUR 100. So we have an exposure of about 1,200 gigawatt per hour on 2027. The conditions for themoelectric coverages are not there, especially not in 2027 because spark spreads are all negative.
We foresee that if we won't be in a condition to distribute these coverages. In 2026, we estimate about EUR 3, EUR 4 per megawatt hour, because we see that thermoelectric plants are in demand, especially in some -- at some times of the day. And we also got some opportunities just to improve the positive hours. With reference to treatment plants, you've seen an improvement of EUR 5 million in the first quarter. And we foresee that this improvement will increase during the rest of the year up to around EUR 10 million. So this will not be a linear growth, but EUR 5 million in the first quarter and EUR 10 million full year.
Coming back to the first question, where will the growth to be focused in the second quarter? Because also during the second quarter, the dynamics will not be fully clear. This growth is due to the synergies. As you have seen, we have EUR 4 million in the first quarter, and we foresee 20 million in the full year. We have an organic growth linked to networks, but also to photovoltaic. So in this case, we see about EUR 4 million for the full year. And we also have the recovered EUR 10 million we were talking about before. And this is due to the dynamics of more marginality on margins on the -- in the supply chain, but also in the capacity market, which in 2026 is forecasted to grow by about EUR 50 million. So it would grow from EUR 85 million to EUR 100 million. So the capacity market is a very important aspect of these margins where we have full visibility.
The next question comes from Emanuele Oggioni by Kepler Cheuvreux.
I also have some questions. The first one is about the consideration and the potential consolidation in the energy business unit. Recently, there were some articles on La Stampa, also mentioned in Iren, as in the potentials on the market. We are talking about over 2 million customers. And without mentioning any names, my question was if you are interested at the moment in assessing some of these assets, and if you're interested in growing by external lines, with an existing portfolio of customers. This was my first question.
And the second question is a clarification about the hedging in 2026. It wasn't clear the price. I assume 70% of volumes. But I wanted to ask if you confirm the one under EUR 5 per megawatt hour that you stated in the full year presentation for 2025. And also clarifation on hydroelectric production. Despite the maintenance, the first part of the year, there is a weakening in the Alps in Northern Italy also during the second quarter, and I wanted to ask an update on this point of view. You already said that you confirmed this gigawatt per hour, but what is the possibility that this visibility will be a bit lower with regard to the target that you confirm.
And last question on the market business unit, on the organic side, not the acquisition side. Could you give us an update because I have seen there is a 1% decrease in customer base compared to the year-end 2025. So could you give us an update on the competitive side for year-end in the markets?
I will begin. I will then give the floor to Giovanni. About the strengthening of the energy supply, there are many opportunities on the table. Both on the customer portfolio side and on generation. We are looking at all the opportunities because our approach is not to leave anything aside. Today, we have to grow a lot on organic also. If we had to decide, first we would look at the organic side and then on the non-organic lines. But we are looking at all the industries without leaving anything aside.
Okay. I will go to the second question concerning our confirmation of the price for the coverage in 2026. That's right, it's EUR 105 per megawatt hour and on 70% of the hypothesized production. Concerning hydroelectric production, we have an important snow amount in our reference area. So the plants in Piedmont. But we are seeing that the meltdown of the snow is a bit late. So there could be -- the production could be postponed from the second to the third quarter. But on the year side, looking at a full year, our estimates are about 1,200 gigawatts per hour, and they are confirmed also taking into account the rains that will come in the autumn. But the filling of basins due to the snow gives us peace of mind regarding this forecast.
Concerning the customer base, we had a meeting concerning customer base and about 30,000 customers this quarter. This reduction is focused mainly on the geographic side in the Central and the Southern part of Italy, also because we decided to change our acquisition channels. The churn rate and we foresee customer base at the end of the year slightly stable compared to the one presented at 31st of March. Our churn rate is about 36%, 37%, so we noticed a slight decrease compared to the first quarter of 2025. Competition, however, is noticeable. And as we said, talking about the results of the first quarter, we decided to adopt a more selective commercial policy. Considering also that the investments to acquire new customers on some channels are starting to be very high. And here, churn rate is even higher than the one I communicated as an overall average for the business unit.
Next question comes from Francesco Sala from Banca Akros.
I also have a few questions. The first one is on the renewal of electrical concessions. Could you give us an update about the current situation and the trends that you foresee for the next few months. The second one is on the improvement of the EBITDA margins for the treatment plants. Can you give us an idea of the drivers for this improvement? Is it in terms of efficiency capacity or final prices that make this business more competitive? And finally, I wanted to ask something on the plants that will become operational in the next quarter. What are the percentages and where in Italy will they be sold?
Concerning the renewal of electrical sessions after the European court expressed their opinion. The Piedmont region decided to open a bid for the first concession. We are assessing at the moment what we would like to do. And in the next few weeks, we will consolidate our decision about what we want to do. At the moment, there's just a tender concerning a plant in San Mauro, which is rather small, 8 megawatt. So we are monitoring the situation. We are discussing with the region. We hope our solution on the fourth way that will allow operators to continue with the current management, but also helping the local area in terms of lower costs on bills. In Piedmont, we have a 7% production. So at the moment, this is a pretty liquid situation. Giovanni?
Yes, concerning their treatment plans, we have 3 types of treatment plans with different dynamics, depending on the type of product. We have a pellet plant, starting from the recovery wood, fines, and pellets. And this improves the productivity because we will begin to produce a new line of blocks, and this will allow us to have industrial efficiency. Then we have -- we don't have an increase in prices because the market is in line with 2025, but we have some plants that will become operational, in particular, the Gavassa plant in Reggio Emilia and in Santhia.
And we will have an improvement of incoming flows, and on the other hand, a reduction of the organic flows that now we have to dispose of in external plants because these plants are also functional to the flows that we generate with seperate waste collection. Then we have another plant that is pertaining to plastic. The market even after the beginning of the war gave no important signal of increase in prices. There is a high competition of countries outside the EU, but we have an improvement of 10% of the prices, also concerning plastics.
Concerning the photovoltaic plants. We have a plant for 7 megawatt that will be conversional and this is located in the province of Reggio Emilia. We have another plant of 8.5 megawatts that has become operational in the first quarter, but that still has not generated production. And this is located in the province of Bologna. So overall, about 60 megawatts will become operational over 2026. These are -- they are all merchant plants with no incentives. But in 2026, we won a tender for the photovoltaic plant in Rovigo for 150 megawatts and this will become operational by the mid 2027. So first quarter -- first half of the 2027.
The last questions comes from Javier Suarez by Mediobanca.
I still have a few questions. I would like to ask first of all, I think about the business supply. I had an impression that the business in supply is becoming more competitive? Maybe the policy of customer retention, we have to become more competitive. And what are the measures that you are undertaking to face this competitiveness in the market supply? This is the first question.
The second question concerns synergies, you talked about EUR 4 million synergies in the first quarter of the year. The target for the whole year is EUR 20 million. I wanted to ask if you could give us an indication of where do these EUR 4 million come from? And where I would like to push in the next quarters to reach this EUR 40 million of target. And the last question concerning the estimates, I was surprised by the tax rate, which is lower than what I expected. So could you explain a bit better the tax rate? And what should the tax rate be for the whole year?
Yes, concerning the supply, we also see more competitiveness. And our action is to give presence to physical acquisition channels. This was a strategy that began 2 years ago. This brought us to 1,400 points of sales, both direct and indirect. And this is a channel where we have seen lower churn rates, lower acquisition costs. And so we managed to have an overall marginality, also considering the investment costs. And we've seen some improvements. Besides higher competitiveness that impacts customer base. We also had a reduction in margins, a normalization of about EUR 6, EUR 7 of margin, a reduction of EUR 6, EUR 7 in margins in 2026 compared to 2025.
Concerning synergies, we activated our cost management plan and a task force to support synergies. As you may remember, we have about EUR 5 million in the business plan and the EUR 20 million foreseen in 2026, and the EUR 4 million already reached are in line with the strategy of improvement of our efficiency. And they mainly concern projects, about 50% concern projects on the network side, so hydro, electrical, gas, and electric energy, but also about EUR 5 million, EUR 6 million for commercial activities. So to answer the first question, we have competitiveness, but we are also trying to maintain the cost in our market business units. And the market business unit contributes to these EUR 20 million for about 1 quarter.
Concerning tax rate, I will try to be very clear and explain them, but if you have any further questions let me know. The tax rate is at 29.6% in the first quarter and this is foreseen also for the full year. It also includes the additional 2% foreseen by the Energy Bill decree. This new amount has an impact of 2.6% on the full year base. But our group also has some recoveries that are very important in the tax calculation that they were already made in 2025. So we had these recoveries, but we couldn't monetize these anticipated taxes at 6% becasuse the decree had not already become law. We had to follow the usual IRAP rate of 4% instead of 6% or 7%. So in 2026, we will have a negative effect of EUR 7 million coming from this additional 2%. But on the other hand, we'll have results on the contrary side of about EUR 5 million. These were not foreseen in the 2025 budget, but will show the effects in 2026.
To complete this clarification, I would also talk about 2027. In 2027, we will have EUR 7 million of IRAP, but we will also have a reverse effect, a negative effect of EUR 5 million that are the positive side of 2026. So to sum up, the results that the group will have in 2026 are about EUR 40 million, but they are distributed in a nonlinear way. So EUR 2 million in 2026 and EUR 4 million in 2027, because we will make recoveries at 6%, but in 2028, IRAP will come back to 4%.
The next question comes from Davide Candela from Intesa Sanpaolo.
I also have a couple of questions. The first one is related to hedging. You talked about the power generation, but I wanted to ask if you could give us more information about the supply side. If I remember correctly, in 2026, we are almost entirely covered, but I wanted to forecast for 2027 due to the increase in energy prices. On the other side of the value chain, do you foresee any downsides? And do you have a sensitivity on this side?
Concerning data centers, we have seen that the connection requests continue to increase. In your areas, you have a quota of the demand, I think, and also some available plants. For example, Turbigo. Could you give us some more detail about how you will handle this initial business? What is your approach? And last question about the volumes of district heating in the first quarter. January was very cold, so was it only a higher conversion on the electrical side in the first quarter?
Considering supply to complete the hedging framework, I would like to say that we have a 70% variable and 30% of fixed. So this is not a very high percentage of sales. Our portfolio is 70%, 30%. In this 30% of fixed, due to our policy, we have a coverage from 95% to 100%. So we don't have a significant upside risk and the coverages concern all the contracts for 2026 and 2027. So we minimize the risks of downside on the supply at a fixed rate.
And before giving the floor back to the President, concerning data centers, I would like to talk about the volumes of central heating. It's true January was very cold, but February was warmer. And we believe that the dynamics are also due to the war. Certainly, the anticipating increase of costs that in the consumption dynamics may have brought to a flattening of the consumption. But I would like to stress that the volumes that are the structural indicator that are not linked to the progression of the cold and warmer climate and to the meteorological trends were stable.
Thank you, Giovanni. Concerning data centers, we had many requests, for example, in the Turin area, for several tens of megawatts, we are discussing about the plans in the areas of Turin and Parma-Piacenza. Our business model at the moment is of giving electric energy to other data centers to recover the value. So we are not one of the best operators on this side because we have 3 waste energy plants and 1 of the larger plants in Turbigo, Lombardy. But we are discussing of these projects with the developers, and we would like to develop this project, especially in our area.
At the moment, there are no further questions. I will give the floor back for the final comments.
First of all, thank you for all these questions and for your attention. We are available for further questions and would like to say goodbye to you and wish you a good afternoon.
[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]
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Iren — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Hello, and welcome to Iren's conference call. [Operator Instructions]
I will now hand the floor over to Dubini Dacco, Head of IR, to begin today's call. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for joining this conference call to present the results as of December 31, 2025 for Iren. The results will be presented by the Executive President, Luca dal Fabbro; and by the CFO, Giovanni Gazza. At the end of the presentation, there will be the usual Q&A session.
I will now give the floor to Luca to present the results of the period.
Thank you, Carlo. Good afternoon to all of you, and thank you for joining us today. The Board of Directors meeting today approved results as of December 31, 2025, showing a growth at the EBITDA level of up 6%, exceeded the EUR 1,050 million and 12% at group net profit, reaching about EUR 300 million.
The increase of the EBITDA is supported by the organic growth for the investments over the last few years, of the synergy plans and the consolidation of the group EGEA. That contributed to the growth for about EUR 60 million. 22% of EBITDA of the group was by regulated or semi-regulated activities, confirming the strengthening and the strategic positioning of the core regulated businesses, and this is a stability element in such uncertain period.
The net financial position grew by about EUR 140 million, reaching about EUR 4.2 billion. The increment at 2% allowed decrease in the debt to EBITDA ratio at 3.1x, as anticipated in the last guidance last November. Operating cash flow fully covered more than EUR 120 million in technical investments. There's also the group in line with the strategic plan presented in November '25, allow us to propose in the next shareholders meeting a dividend amounting to EUR 0.1386 per share. Growing by 8% compared to last year with a payout of about 6%.
Sustainability, which is one of the pillars of our group strategy, continues to guide the strategic choices of investment. That's why at the end of the year, I would like to share with us the main results reached. During 2025, 73% of investments were invested to projects. The support of the transition plan towards 2040.
Concerning the transition, we confirm what we anticipated in November during the Transition Plan toward 2040. That is, for some indicators, we need more time so that the planned interventions can really become measurable results. This is the case, for example, that remain stable compared to last year.
The investments made in the environmental sector, a further increase of 1% point, in separate waste collection, bringing to 70.5%. There's a slight decrease in materials recovery to facilities due to the unavailability of the plastic recovery plant in Calle Bosca, following the fire that occurred in August 2024.
2025 was particularly important due to standing in our local presence, thanks to the consolidation of EGEA. This contributed to an increase in the municipalities served in waste collection customer base and the volumes for district heating. Finally, the services is the base of the management of our activities that are stable with a stable customer satisfaction at excellent level with [indiscernible] up 21% due to the extension of the management period. And thanks to the excellent services of IrenPlus and the wind energy sold at the final customers, as foreseen in the investor plan.
As usual, moving to Page 4 in our presentation, we can see the main economic financial indicators and the moving parts of the period. EBITDA reaches EUR 1.25 billion, up 6%. The positive contribution of EGEA for EUR 60 million are more positive results than foreseen at the beginning of the year, thanks to EUR 5 million synergies.
The efficiency gains were, in fact, made possible by the early full consolidation of EGEA at 100%, which enabled an acceleration of integration of activities, this in line with various holding financials and the direct coordination business operations. In 2026, we foresee that we will complete the integration at the company level. And today, we already integrated the Market and the Environment business units and also at operating level.
The second element is the positive contribution to organic growth of regulated businesses, around EUR 22 million, driven by the full execution of planned investments and the strategy, understanding the group's presence in regulated segments, the strong focus on improving service quality. The third item is synergies that are in line with the planned expectations at about EUR 20 million. And the amount of the synergies in 2025 is 2.5x higher than in 2024, signaling that this is a good lever for an increase in the profitability.
The energy value chain reported an overall increase of EUR 7 million despite being negatively affected by several factors: the absence of the strong margins recorded in 2024 gas segment, low hydroelectric generation volumes and lower prices for renewable technologies compared to the previous year.
EBIT amounts at EUR 430 million, up 2%, due to the higher amortization and provisions about that. Group net profit instead amounts to EUR 301 million, up to 12%. And it benefits from the acquisition of the minority interest of the Iren Acqua company and the reduction of the tax rate.
Overall investments of the year amount to EUR 1.35 billion, of which EUR 125 million in technical investments, up 12%, mainly destined to the development of the hydroelectric electricity network, waste treatment and the completion of waste treatment plants. The financing of these investments of about EUR 500 million hybrid bond may be possible to contain the increase in net financial debt to EUR 4.2 billion, resulting in a reduction in EBITDA ratio at 3.1x.
I will now give the floor to Giovanni for an in-depth analysis of business dynamics.
Thank you, Luca, and good afternoon, everybody. We'll now go more in depth in the business unit performance, starting with the Networks business unit that you can see at Page 5. The EBITDA increase of 11% amounted to EUR 51 million. That was generated by all 3 business lines. In general, we can see that the organic growth generated EUR 22 million, partially offset by the reduction of WACC on the gas energy distribution, down of EUR 7 million, and the consolidation of EGEA that contributed for EUR 12 million. Finally, the efficiency plan delivered a positive contribution of approximately EUR 8 million.
More in detail. We can see the integrated service and the organic growth and the consolidation of contributing for EUR 50 million overall. The positive result of the period is also supported by 2 nonrecurrent extraordinary items: EUR 8 million related to the area award for technical quality and EUR 3 million for our previous adjustment. These positive elements offset the absence of extraordinary recovery of the inflation amounted to EUR 9 million that was accounted for in the first quarter of 2024.
In the Electricity and Energy business line, an increase of EUR 30 million is mainly due to the increase of strength due to an increase of RAB, up 7%. Finally, the gas distribution business, the result is by EUR 21 million, benefiting from the consolidation of EGEA's networks for EUR 5 million, the external recovery of operating costs recognized for the 2020-2025 period under ARERA Resolution 570, amounting to approximately EUR 30 million, and from other minor items totaling EUR 4 million.
The investments made during the period exceeding EUR 387 million registered 8% growth compared to 2024. This demonstrates the strategy of the group, which is aimed at strengthening the regulated businesses. These investments are focused on improving the quality of the services provided with the aim of ensuring high-quality standards and continuity in achieving the incentives established by ARERA.
Moving to the Environment business units on Page 6. EBITDA 2025 reached EUR 277 million, growing by 8% compared to 2024. Waste collection activities recorded an increase of EUR 60 million driven by the consolidation of EGEA, up EUR 3 million, and the one-off recognition of past operating costs in the latter part of the year amounting to EUR 30 million.
Treatment and disposal activities positively contributed to the business unit's results with higher contribution going back to 2024 of EUR 5 million. This result was achieved mainly thanks to the launch of the efficiency plan of waste treatment and material recovery plants.
These positive elements for the period include also the contribution for environmental remediation activities and the lower volumes of waste disposal of inland fills due to saturation and the lower prices for electricity generated from WTE plants offset the positive factors. Overall, the volumes of waste managed during the year increased by 3%, supported by growth, both in municipal and special waste, mainly as a result of the integration of EGEA.
Continuing the analysis with the Energy business unit on Page 7. We note reversal of the trend at the end of the year compared to previous periods due to a contraction in prices and high relative volumes, which led to a decrease of EUR 6 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 alone. Looking at the overall effects according to the year, which result in a decline for renewables generation of EUR 35 million. We note that PUN values were lower than in 2024, hydroelectric production was down by 165 GWh, and we also recorded a lower solar radiation, offset by the full contribution of the 38.5 MW photovoltaic plant, which had only became operating in the second half of 2024.
Regarding photovoltaic capacity, 20 MW plant DCC became active in October. At the beginning of this month, an 8.5 MW plant was in province Bologna and became operational. Thermal and cogeneration production reported growth of EUR 90 million due to the higher capital spreads and increase production volumes, up 170 GWh, also thanks to the full availability and efficiency of the new 400 MW thermal unit in Turbigo. The higher contribution from the capacity market, up EUR 17 million, was almost entirely offset by the decline in the ancillary services market, MSD, with a performance that was EUR 15 million lower than in 2024.
Heat increased by EUR 9 million, driven by higher volumes resulting from networks in function and the consolidation of EGEA. These factors were partially offset by a slight decline in unit margins. In particular, the reduction in thermal spark spread is linked to the high margins achieved in 2024, supported by particularly favorable and repeatable hedging operations. Finally, also the segment of energy efficiency is a positive, up EUR 3 million due to increase in building activities.
We conclude the rest of the business units with the Market segment on Page 8, which reports an increase of EUR 12 million, up 5%, driven by the consolidation of EGEA, up EUR 29 million and by synergies achieved due to the optimization of commercial processes. This model offset both the lower margins on electricity sales and the absence of the extra margins recorded last year in gas sales.
Volumes sold increased both for electricity, up 18%, and gas, up 10% as a result of the consolidation of EGEA. And the customer base increased by 3%, exceeding 2,350,000 the customers served.
The contactor strategy implemented after the 2022 energy crisis allows us to be more resilient to potential commodity price fluctuations with 72% of contracts with variable prices and only 28% at the fixed prices. Market competition remained high with higher rates than in previous years. However, towards the end of the year, we observed some stabilization in the indicator, which did not increase compared to September's level.
Finally, we confirm a positive commercial trend in the sale of high value-added products and services, which recorded an increase of EUR 2 million compared to 2024.
Moving to Slide 9. We can identify the main elements that enable the group to achieve a net profit of EUR 301 million in more detail. Depreciation and amortization increased by EUR 61 million, driven by investments as well as consolidation of EGEA, which contributed to EUR 43 million.
Provisions for bad debt increased by EUR 12 million mainly in the Environment BU due to the shift in revenue recognition for environmental sanitation services from tax collected [indiscernible] to a fee collected directly from customers by the group. The average cost of debt stood at 2.4% higher than in 2024, mainly due to the interest rate differential between new bond issuances and those that were paid, which are particularly favorable rates.
We recorded a higher contribution from cost consolidated companies at equity, up EUR 7 million. Net profit attributable to the group for the period amounted to EUR 301 million, up 12% compared to last year, thanks to the higher the EBITDA, a lower net profit attributable to minorities and a lower tax rate, which as already highlighted during the year, stands at 27.8%, benefiting from nonrecurring tax items related to the consolidation of EGEA.
I conclude the economic and financial analysis with the evolution of the net financial position, which stands at EUR 4.22 billion, up 2% compared to 2024. It should be noted that the operating cash flow amounted to EUR 943 million, fully covered the EUR 925 million cash-out for tactical investments. Within operating cash flow, we recorded an increase for Superbonus of EUR 43 million as the credits accrued from rebuilding activities exceeded the credits sold and offset.
The increase in net working capital by EUR 148 million is mainly attributable to three factors. One, tariffs receivables in regulated businesses, the so called extra cap due beyond 12 months, amounted to approximately EUR 80 million, of which around EUR 40 million were related with the service and EUR 25 million to waste collection, plus other smaller receivables related to deferred incentive collections. Two, EUR 60 million due to a reduction in trade payables linked to the seasonal factor of investments. In 2025, they were more concentrated in the first part of the year, but also to the decline in energy prices that characterized the latter part of the year.
Three, finally, around EUR 10 million receivables to be collected for contributions relating to RRN funded projects. The cash outflow from M&A transactions acquisition of minority stake in Iren Acqua and EGEA was offset by the issuance of our hybrid bond in January 2025.
I will now hand the floor back to Luca for the conclusion of the presentation.
Thank you, Giovanni. To conclude the presentation, we will now look at the 2026, the current year, which we characterize, according to us, by the implementation of the strategic plan, primarily focused on regulated businesses with the rollout of the first actions and the finer sharpening our business model; two, the maintenance of financial targets and the current rating assessments; three, the continuation of the efficiency plan, which was a target of approximately EUR 20 million in additional synergies by the year-end.
Regarding energy production, in the first quarter of 2026, we can see that while gas price generation and heat production are broadly line with last year. Hydroelectric production is down by approximately 80 GWh. This trend is attributable to the start of 2026 with hydro reservoirs depleted due to scheduled maintenance works on the reservoirs. Therefore, 2026, we expect and EBITDA growth of 4% compared to 2025, taking investments of approximately EUR 950 million and, thus, a stable EBITDA ratio of 3.1x.
We will now move to the Q&A session. Thank you very much.
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Javier Suarez from Mediobanca.
2. Question Answer
I have two questions. The first is a bit about the context in a situation of emergency for Europe due to the geopolitical crisis, how do you see the impact for the company like Iren of the measures introduced by the government in the energy sector? Can you give us an update about your forecast for '26 and '27, and how the strategy may compensate higher volatility in the sector in energy crisis. This was the first question.
The second question was related to the net income guidance. What do you think may be the impact in 2026 and 2027? Can you share guidance on the net impact also for 2026?
And third and last question. I would like to have an update on the supply business. The dynamics, that you mentioned, but I would like to have a more insights on the first quarter of 2026, what you're seeing at the moment. And do you think there should be updates or changes to your policies and activities?
I will give an introduction and then I will give the floor to Giovanni. Talking about the context, it is a very volatile context. And concerning the impact of the government measures on the energy sector, we are waiting to see what they will say about ABS, but we cannot see a high economic impact. I will now give the floor to Giovanni.
In 2026, we already did an important hedging strategy. So concerning supply, we cover contracts with a fixed rate at 5%. And concerning production, we covered all our renewables production at 65% with a price of EUR 105. We would also like to note that a small part of our production would not be subject to these provisions due to the green certificates. So this hedging strategy allows us to say that we have about 600 GWh uncovered and that are subject to interventions to regulated prices in a very low [ weight ].
Referring to bills, the increase of 2% of Europe on the energy consumption was estimated at EUR 7 million. So we expect that this provision will be cut. With this percentage, there will be a negative result of EUR 7 million. Will we foresee in 2026 regarding supply. As we already said, we see a stable [ CR ]. Especially in the last part of 2026, we foresee a slight reduction of margins of about EUR 5 per customer compared to 2025. We can say that the first quarter is not marked by particular dynamics regarding churn rate on the supply side.
On the production side, as we already said, we point out a reduction on the 2 production compared to last year of about 80 GWh. So these are the main aspects in the Energy line that will be related to the first quarter.
The next question comes Roberto Letizia by Equita.
I would like to do a follow-up on some of the questions because you gave the position open for 2026. I would like also some indications about 2027, and if you could clarify if, in 2027, there is more margin for -- more benefits in power generation because the measures of the government can only compensate what the scenario will develop into. If there is an intervention on the side of the government, there could also be positive results.
So I would also like you to comment on how you will manage the spark spread dynamic that at the moment had a breakdown, had a collapse. So the gas distribution with the gas is not good, and there was a collapse at 10 GWh in gas production. So how do you foresee the situation to develop. And concerning the scenario, I would like you give us an explanation about gas procurement. So if you have contracts that could have any issues due to force majeure or if there are any issues related to the volumes or to the dynamics of [ guarantee ] liquidation as we saw in 2022.
And next question, if you can remind us what could be the elements of 2025 compared to 2026?
Yes. Compared to 2027, we can already explain our coverages. For 2027, we expect our renewable production of 2.1 GWh. And at the moment, we have covered 20%. So we cover 20% at a price of about 105 MWh. This 2.1 TWh, we have a covered part, a part that we covered by green certificates and with incentives. So we have about 1.5, 1.6 terawatt per hour. And so we could have an advantage related to the prices for 2027. So these are the volumes.
Concerning the spark spread, as you said, the dynamics are highly volatile. The forward won't give any signals of results. The spot prices become more positive as we go near every day to the delivery, and they are strongly marked by the gas prices. So on the terminal fixed side, in 2026, we cover 20% of terminal production because this will mean losing the possibility of margins that we generate every day with a high volatility on the delivery phase.
Concerning gas procurement, our supply contracts foresee at TSW Italia. We have no force majeure . So they are only to the national territory. So this contractor position puts us in a safer position concerning risks of supply. Also consider the fact that from Qatar, we receive 4% of liquid gas every day. So this is a low volume. And so we don't have force majeure closes unless we have the one on Italian soil.
Next question comes from Francesco Sala by Banca Akros.
One is on the investments for 2026, concerning the target, they are a bit below the average that you estimated for the following year. And where will the investments be focused in 2026?
The second question concerns hydroelectric concessions. Are there any updates on the renewables process? And how do you intend to proceed?
Yes. Concerning CapEx, we foresee [indiscernible] the investment plan. This is a business unit that we would like to develop and focus on. About EUR 140 million, EUR 150 million for Environment, EUR 250 for million Energy and then EUR 260 million for the Market side. The investments are corporate investments. So also an upgrade of IT systems, also in line with the new directive, which must be complied with by 2026.
Concerning hydroelectric aspects, the current directives were put in doubt, and we are now discussing with the government the possibility of us calling [ fourth way ], which is an extension of the concessions by paying a fee to the companies or to the families. This is something that we are monitoring and this applies to all operators, not only to us. So we are expecting the decisions of the institutions by the government by the ARERA.
Next question comes from Emanuele Oggioni from Kepler Cheuvreux.
I also have a few questions. The first one is a follow-up about the guidance. Concerning EBITDA, could you please sum up the 4% of growth foreseen and a confirmation of the guidance of the comp market of net profit in 2026? I don't know if you already answered these questions. And also the one-off increase of Europe. This is the first question about the guidance.
The second question is about [ separation ]. Could you please describe the reasons, the decision to sell the assets? I don't know if only a part of our majority of the renewable assets, in particular, [indiscernible] assets? And could you give a the reason for this decision?
And then something more about the numbers for hydro production. I don't know if the reduction GWh is only to a part or to the whole 2026, so in the volume of GWh [indiscernible] and what is the total volume you refer to in 2026? [indiscernible] 2.1 For 2027, but I didn't catch the numbers for 2026.
And then I've seen that there was an increase on bad debt of about EUR 10 million. I would like to understand if you have a guidance on 2026, if this was a one-off to 2025 or if this will be -- or if this will continue or it will increase in the 2026?
And finally, last question. I saw EUR 43 million concerning credits generated by Superbonus. Could you please remind us if there is still a residual part in 2026 or in the following year?
Yes. So let me start with the target of hydroelectric production in 2026. This reduction for the first quarter is a reduction of about 550 GWh on year production because it is due to lower reservoirs at the beginning of the year. There were maintenance works on the reservoirs. So we started with little water in the reservoirs. What we foresee for 2026 is 1.2 tera of hydroelectric production, about a 580 GWh for [indiscernible] photovoltaic because we have higher power installed. So as we have said, plant in Sicilia and Bologna plant will be operational. So we have a higher capacity. And we foresee our target of 250, 270 GWh and then the usual 150 GWh from thermo.
Concerning provisions, we had an increase due to the change from tax to tariff to a fee. So this was implemented in the foreseen municipalities. And we foresee that there will remain an amount that is stable also for 2026.
As for Superbonus, we can say that the activities were terminated. So we don't have more initiatives, only limited initiatives already to nonprofit organizations. So we foresee in 2026 to liquidate the credit generated, EUR 43 million generated in 2025, and also to liquidate a fare amount of about EUR 90 million. This will compensate the increase in working capital linked to extra cap that will characterize 2026 as well.
Regarding EBITDA, the growth of 4% is driven by synergies. In 2025, we reached EUR 50 million we are planning to add another EUR 20 million in 2026. And we also activated our specific project for the performance improvement in addition to the ones we had in previous years, and this will contribute for EUR 20 million.
Concerning business dynamics, we have organic growth on the Networks, a slight increase in the Environment business unit by recovering the margins for the treatment plants. We believe we can also have generated EUR 5 million in 2026. The Energy side is driven by the price and by a higher contribution of the capacity market of about EUR 50 million more than 2025. And concerning the Market business unit, we foresee a reduction, as we said before, about EUR 5 per customer and overall a reduction of EUR 10 million.
Regarding net profit, we don't give a guidance. We'll give during the first quarter analysis as is for us. I will give the floor to the President for the asset rotation.
Concerning asset rotation, I confirm that no decision was taken that differentiates from the plan. Of course, with the aim of optimizing and the asset allocation, at the moment, we didn't take any decision. We don't foresee to sell photovoltaic, and we will assess opportunities should there be an opportunity. But this doesn't mean we would like to stop investing in renewable energies. We are one of the major suppliers of hydroelectric in Italy. And in this stage, with the Hormuz crisis, we should look at the opportunities in sale and also in acquisition. I have also had in the [indiscernible], but there are no decisions already made.
Next question comes from Davide Candela, Intesa Sanpaolo.
I have a couple of questions related to debt. The first one is a clarification about approximately EUR 90 million that you reported as a guidance for 2026 in the guidance for extra capital. I would like to ask if this is something that is not [ recurrable ], so about EUR 30 million more than the EUR 60 million. Or if you are investing more and, thus, creating a regulatory capital. And if you have a plan to recover this that at the moment we are not recovering.
And also concerning that, in light of the scenario that we are seeing in these weeks, do you see anything that has an impact on the medium term? Or does this force you to ask for credit lines, and this will impact also the financial burdens on the short term?
Concerning security capital, it is the correct interpretation that this extra cap credit are recognized on an economic and financial point of view will be recovered a little bit. On this credit, the inflation is foreseen. So we foresee to invest about EUR 15 million on the networks and this will generate credits. And this will be recovered in the following years, I will say starting from 2028.
So in 2027, there should be less credits, so the amount should be lower. And in 2028, 2029, we should recover the tariffs. These credits are recognized also in the concessions. So the new -- if there will be a succession, the new [indiscernible] should recognize that this is appraisal.
Concerned 2026, we don't have significant margin cost because our operations are mainly on the DC market and very low on hedges. So we don't foresee any negative impact on trade. So we are waiting for the conversion of the pre to see if there should be any additional measures that at the moment are not known on the invoice in mechanism.
Thank you. There are no further questions. I would like to give the floor back to the speakers for concluding.
Thank you very much for your attention, for your questions. And I would like to wish you a good afternoon. And we will hear from each other next time. Bye.
[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]
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Iren — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good afternoon, everybody, and thank you for connecting to this conference call for the presentation of results on the -- for the first 9 months of 2025 and our business plan. We will start with the results, which will be presented by the CEO, Luca Dal Fabbro; and CFO, Giovanni Gazza. And then we will present the industrial plan for 2025-2030 presented by the CEO Gianluca Bufo. At the end, there will be a Q&A session. I will now leave the floor to Luca for the 9-month period results.
Thank you. Good afternoon to everybody. We will try and keep short with the presentation of the quarter results in order to leave space for the industrial plan presentation and then for the conference call for the presentation of the other companies scheduled for the afternoon. The quarter results, which have been approved by the Board of Directors are only increased over the last year, driven by all business units and the aggregation of Egea and the synergies equal EUR 16 million and the Egea operation has contributed for EUR 43 million, in line with the expectations and EUR 55 million at the end of the year.
The technical investments are on the increase by 10%, totaling EUR 610 million and together with the dividend payment for about EUR 180 million, they reflect in the growth of the net financial debt. And in light of these results, we can confirm the guidance on 2025 as we will see in the next slide.
Can I please see Page 3. You can see the details of the main economic and financial indicators of the period. The EBITDA exceeds EUR 1 billion, plus 9% due to the Egea operation, the organic growth of the regulated businesses, which benefit of some nonrecurrent positive elements and on the synergy plan, which has an impact for EUR 16 million over the period. Among the negative elements, we can include minor decreased hydroelectric volumes due to the poor water conditions in the summer. And poor margins on the energy production and no extra margins on gas sales. The EBIT of the period is increased by 7%, and the group net margins is growing by 12%.
And this growth is slower over the rest of the semester, which is 14% and 24% as expected because the energy scenario and in particular, the summer hydroelectric production are weaker. And there are no extraordinary, no repeatable events on water and gas networks as in the first semester. The total investments of the period equal EUR 1,124 million, EUR 613 million are technical investments for the development of the electric and water networks and the completion of waste management facilities and the extension of district heating network, EUR 500 million for financial investments for the Egea and Iren Acqua operations.
If we take a look at the end of the year in the last quarter, we are expecting business dynamics, which are in line with the first 9 months, and we can confirm the full year 2025 guidance with more specific targets and EBITDA, which is EUR 1,350 million, a group net margin, net profit expected at EUR 300 million. Technical investments increased by EUR 900 million and a ratio of the net financial position EBITDA, which is improved over the expectations that we presented during the July conference call. I'm sorry, I can't hear. All right. Thank you.
And we have an increase in the networks due to organic growth, plus EUR 18 million due to investments made in the last years. And then the Egea operation, EUR 9 million and the net balance of non-repeated items, plus EUR 14 million as we had illustrated in the first semester. More specifically, as far as the water service is confirmed, the EUR 8 million of the ARERA price were awarded -- ARERA contract, sorry, were awarded for the technical quality of the service and EUR 3 million for the tariff recovery counterbalanced by the missed recovery of inflation costs.
And as for the gas distribution is concerned, there was an extraordinary recovery of operational costs on the 2020-2025 period due to the ARERA decision number 570, which amounts to EUR 13 million approximately. The Environment business unit is increasing by EUR 6 million, half due to the Egea operation and the rest of the positive result of the waste recovery facilities, which was partially counterbalanced by the WTE, which were negatively affected by the electric power prices -- generated electric power prices, which were lower than last year.
The Energy business unit closes the quarter with an increase by EUR 9 million, which is lower than expected due to decreased volumes of renewable electrical power that is minus 90 gigawatts per hour due to poor water conditions during the summer and lower energy costs in the -- in spite of this decrease in electric power generation, especially in the summer period due to a weak demand, the unit margins for the gas thermal production were growing with a spark spread, which is especially positive in some hours of the day.
The capacity market increase, which is plus EUR 20 million, was partially counterbalanced by a reduction of the dispatching service market, minus EUR 9 million. This is still a weak market. Finally, district heating confirms the dynamics of the semester with increasing volumes, thanks also to the Egea operation.
Finally, the market business unit is growing by EUR 19 million, supported by the Egea operation with EUR 22 million growth and cost synergies that are balancing the decreased gas sales volumes, minus EUR 17 million due to extraordinary items at the beginning of 2024 and the reduction of volumes of gas sales.
Now let's move on to the next slide, and we will see some elements of the EBITDA contributing to the net profit. In particular, EBIT is EUR 401 million, plus EUR 7 million because the increase of the EBITDA is partially reduced by the growth of amortization amounting to plus EUR 45 million due to the start-up of investments and of the Egea operation. Provisions mirror the increase in dynamics that we have witnessed during the semester. The debt cost is increased over the last year due to the differential between the bond -- new bond issuing rates and the bonds reimbursed in 2025, the average cost of the debt for the period is 2.4% in continuity with the value regarding the semester.
The end of September decrease in the tax rate totaled 28% after the one-off totaling approximately EUR 4.5 million for the anticipation of taxes on the Egea operation at the end of 2025. The tax rate of the group is expected to total 29%. So the group net profit for the period equals EUR 219 million with a growth of 12% over the last year, benefiting from all the elements described above and by the purchasing of the minority shares of Iren Acqua, which reduces the margins -- third-party margins of about EUR 18 million.
And then as for the net financial debt is concerned, we can see that there is a growth in debt by approximately EUR 200 million, plus 5% over the end of 2024. The operational cash flow almost covers the entirety of the technical investments for the period, which is EUR 610 million. The growth of the net financial position is basically due to the payment of dividends to shareholders in June 2025 and the growth and it is about EUR 177 million. The net circulating capital is decreasing by EUR 10 million over the semester. It is plus EUR 204 million due to a seasonal effect for EUR 100 million, which will be recovered in the fourth quarter.
And then the net circulating capital of Egea EUR 40 million and the tariff credits of businesses of regulated businesses for the extra cap that is costs which will be recovered after 2025 for EUR 26 million fiscal credits connected to the super bonus credits, which contribute for EUR 24 million, and they must still be recovered.
Finally, EUR 20 million credits linked to the recovery and resilience national plans are still to be recovered. Now I would like to give the floor to Luca for the presentation of the industrial plan.
The new industrial plan of Iren defines the growth of the group up until 2030. As we have said, we will provide an overview of the dividend policy, which is evidence of the fact that the industrial plan rests on very solid pillars, allowing us to design a dividend policy. And we would like to strengthen the solid pillars of this group, leveraging on the activities we are excellent at in terms of skills and results. Let's begin with the strategy, and we will see an overview of the results in 2021, 2024 period, a 4-year period characterized by the first 10-year plan at -- by 2030 approved in 2021. We have EUR 3.9 billion investments, allowing the Group to strengthen the business lines, which are 34% of growth in the RAB and a doubling of the waste of the volumes of waste that we managed for the recovery of waste, thanks to our 6 new waste management facilities.
And then the generation capacity of PV has increased 10x in line with the decarbonization objectives with 220 megawatts of installed capacity, an increase by 5% of district heating due to the extension of grids and the saturation of generation facilities that already exist plus 22% in the number of power and gas clients with 2.3 million contracts. And also from the financial and economic point of view, we had a growth with an EBITDA increasing by 37% and an average rate of growth exceeding 8%.
And this means that the increase in EBITDA, the Group has seen a growth of EUR 110 million. Thanks to these results, Iren was able to distribute EUR 550 million in dividends to shareholders in 4 years, keeping a balance between capital remuneration and self-financing. These results are the solid pillars of the industrial plan I was talking about. And we have some key aspects, which are a review of the multi-utility approach motivated by the will to make the Group more efficient and oriented towards its core businesses throughout a more selective management of capital. So we have a focus on core businesses.
And then development investments, which are targeted, especially at regulated sectors. These are the domains where the Group has proved its solid skills and capacity to generate value, and improvement of the company income pursued throughout a concentration of the development investments and the implementation of a synergy plan supported by the commitment of the management.
Financial flexibility, allowing to seize new opportunities for growth, both at the internal and the external level in the short and medium term, enabling further acceleration of the development. The solidity, the financial solidity of our plan is strengthened by the fact that we do not expect asset sales, and all investments will be covered by the generated cash flow. This 10-year strategic vision is confirmed and is based on 3 strategic pillars that are reinterpreting in light of the market evolution.
So our commitment to environmental transition is confirmed and strengthened, but it evolves according to changes in markets and regulation conditions, adopting an approach which is more targeted and resilient. So we focus at reducing the environmental impact in all sectors, protecting natural resources and encouraging energy recovery and waste recovery. And we would like also to create value at the local level, which is the focus of our mission. We create strategic infrastructures for local development and the strengthening of our presence at the local level. The multi-utility nature of our services allows us to seize new opportunities, have a broad service portfolio from the geographical point of view. And we are also able to meet the needs of the communities we work with.
Finally, the quality of our service is what guides our action in terms of network resilience, reduction of failures and interruptions, strengthening of the loyalty of citizens and customers throughout an extended grid of physical points at the local level for an increase of the operational effectiveness. So our strategy is based on changing the business approach from an extended multi-utility to a focused multi-utility, leveraging on a capital allocation, which is more selective on business core to create value and reduce investments in less profitable activities.
And the environmental transition process, which has started in Europe in the last year -- years is undergoing an uncertainty period, but we think that we should continue to believe in environmental transition, and we should have a long-term vision to 2040. The 5 focus areas have been identified, water resources, resilient cities, decarbonization, circular economy and people.
Each focus area is associated to performance indicators with concrete and measurable targets at 2028, 2030 and 2040, in line with the technological maturity of the initiatives and the solidity of implemented investments.
And I would like to give the floor to the CEO, Gianluca Bufo, to continue with the presentation.
Our plan combines ambitious but realistic targets based on the strength of Iren in the several areas of activity. We are -- we rank fourth among national operators for integrated water service with 3.3 million inhabitants that we serve. And we are the fifth operator in the electrical distribution grid, 2 sectors which require investments to increase the quality of our provided services. We're the first operator at the national level concerning the number of inhabitants served for waste management with a basin of more than 4.1 million citizens.
And we are aiming at closing the cycle of urban waste with 3 new WTE in Piedmont, Liguria and Calabria in line with the regional plans in 3 out of the 5 regions, which are willing to do so.
We are the seventh operation at the national level in terms of installed hydroelectric power and the one, and I would like to underline the only one which has presented to the Piedmont region a proposal for a private public partnership for the renewal of hydroelectric power concessions. We are the leaders in Italy in the sector of district heating with more than 1,280 kilometers of grid that we manage, and we aim at strengthening this position by further expanding our network and saturating the capacity of heat generation of our cogenerative plants and WTE.
Finally, as a market business unit, we would like to confirm our placing as a player which goes beyond commodities. Today, 4 clients out of 10 have bought one or several service office or new products with the ambition of becoming a reference partner in a multi-annual durable relationship with residential clients and small businesses. Business plan includes a EUR 6.9 billion investments until 2030, out of which EUR 522 million of operations for inorganic growth, which have been carried out in 2025.
For example, the integration of Iren Acqua and Egea operations financed throughout the issuing in January 2025 of a hybrid bond worth EUR 500 million. And net of the financial investments, the technical CapEx equal EUR 6.4 billion, financed entirely by the cash flow generated by the operative management and they are targeted -- 40% of them are targeted on the network business unit, 25% of the Energy business unit, 19% the Environment business unit and 9% the market business unit.
Finally, the corporate investments amount to 7%, and they are targeted on the digitalization activities involving the whole group. And there is a mild reduction of investments on new renewables totaling approximately EUR 700 million. This decrease is due mainly to bureaucratic hurdles and the reduced profitability of projects as confirmed by the recent FAIRX operation. If we dive deeper into details of the investment plan, we can see that almost 80% of the EUR 6.4 billion in the technical CapEx are destined to regulated and semi-regulated activities. So this percentage is in line with the previous plan.
However, the destination of investments changes. The investments in renewables are reduced and the investments in networks are increased because the latter share more stable and yields. And if we take a look at the destination of capital, 60% of investments is targeted on maintenance, especially 36% for the maintenance of free market assets in order to keep operative efficiency and continuity of performances then 23% of investments for the RAB maintenance and the balancing of the natural decay of assets due to amortization. The remaining 40% of investments for development, 30% of which regulated activities, especially water service, electric grids and WTE, which are regulated assets.
And finally, 10% of investments for development of free market activity projects such as district heating and new PV generation facilities. The EBITDA will reach EUR 1,530 million in 2028 to exceed the EUR 1 billion threshold -- EUR 1 billion, sorry, EUR 600 million threshold in 2030. So this reflects a growth and annual average growth rate by 4%. The group net profits will grow significantly from EUR 268 million in 2024 to approximately EUR 400 million in 2030 with an average annual growth rate by 7%, which is more than the EBITDA. And this result is due to the acquisition of the share of Iren Acqua.
A further element of financial solidity and sustainability of that is the evolution of the IFN/EBITDA ratio, which has a decrease in trend, and it will multiplied by 3 at the end of the period. This level is lower than the maximum threshold, which was set for the group at 3.5 and ensures the necessary flexibility, which will allow us to seize new opportunities of inorganic and organic growth, which may emerge in addition to our expectations according to the basic plan.
And let's move on to the action plan. The markets we are operating with are undergoing deep and accelerated transformation. The protection of water has become a strategic priority for our country. Circular economy is evolving. It's finding its way, and the guiding principle of sustainability is still strong in a competitive context based on the closure of the waste management cycle. The energy transition and decarbonization require investments in renewables, flexibility and infrastructures in a context marked by a strong growth of electricity demand.
At the same time, the sector of energy clients has become more competitive and leads operators to aim at advanced services for clients -- more client loyalty. These structural drivers are the pillars of our industrial view and action plan.
Now let's see the dynamics of the network business units. And for the network BU, we expect investments for EUR 2.6 billion. 60% of them are investments for development, which will allow the achievement of an RAB of EUR 4.4 billion and an annual average growth of the EBITDA by 7%, exceeding EUR 700 million in 2030.
EUR 1.6 billion will be invested in the water services for the modernization of the water network and the replacement of obsolete pipelines, reducing the leaks. There will be 5 new depuration facilities and the modernization of the existing networks for an improvement of water quality. Digitalization investments will support a district approach to the grids, which will allow to identify leaks. By 2030, we would like to exceed 76% of district network and -- we will support the electric power demand and improve the performance with a reduction of the duration and frequency of failures.
And finally, EUR 300 million will be aimed at maintenance of the gas distribution networks in order to ensure maximum safety of the raw material supply. The growth of RAB of EUR 1.3 billion, thanks to investments in electrical grids and water supply guides the EUR 230 million EBITDA growth by plus 48%. This growth is also the result of operational efficiency, positive effects of regulations and inflation recovery in a regulatory framework, which were WACC is expected as constant.
The Environment business unit will see a strengthening of its leadership in waste management. It serves more than EUR 401 million inhabitants with new development of new facilities with the completion of the Saliceti plant in 2026. The Group will orient its investments towards facilities for energy recovery and waste recovery facilities with EUR 450 million for waste collection which will become more modern and effective, thanks to digitalization and customized collection based on the local needs and modernization of our tools.
This will allow an increase of specific waste collection expected by 2030 to reach 75%. EUR 700 million will be targeted and allocated for the development of facilities in Turin, Gioia Tauro and in Liguria and their capacity will be over 1 million tons, and they will be kicked off between 2031 and 2033 to complete the construction of the FORSU facility with a capacity of 90 kilotons of tons in Liguria, there will be another facility for the recovery of electrical household equipment and the extension of paper waste and packing management and the investments of the environment business unit will include also the strengthening of the waste collection services in the areas we served, thanks to concessions and the acquisition of other shares in companies that we already are part of -- in the urban waste management domain.
The total investments are EUR 1.2 billion, and they will generate an increase by 29% of the EBITDA, which will reach EUR 330 million in 2030. The margin increase is also due to tariff adjustment, thanks to a recovery of the inflation, while the management and disposal activities will be supported by more effective facilities and partnerships and by the sales of secondary raw material. The increase of the EBITDA is linked to the 3 new WTEs, which will be kicked off between 2032 and 2033.
Our -- the ambition of the Energy business unit is strengthening its role as a national player with district heating with concrete solutions linked to the renewal of hydroelectric concessions and the availability of thermal electric power. And we have in the hydroelectric business line, EUR 300 million of investments, which are due to the renewal of our concessions in Piedmont, whose extension will cover the next 30 years according to our proposal of PPP, which has already been presented and is in its advanced plan.
We also expect an increase of the hydroelectric capacity by 16 megawatts in the planned period, thanks to the integration of the Egea assets and the new mini hydro facilities. As for renewables are concerned, 200 megawatts of PV power capacity will be installed with the objective of sustaining the development pipelines built during the last years. The profitability of this new project will be supported by incentives of the FAIRX mechanisms and the PPA contracts then district heating with EUR 400 million investments for the extension of the networks, especially in the area of Turin.
This will allow to saturate the production capacity of heat, thanks to thermal energy generated by the future fourth line of the Turin WTE. And due to the role of national players of the sector, we are studying some pilot projects for the thermal -- sorry, thermal sun power generation and geothermal research in the last years, the thermal electric facilities have gained centrality in decarbonization and environmental transition. As we've seen during the last bids for the capacity markets and the potential increase of the energy demands, due to the new data centers, which are going to be built in Italy. And we have forecast with a growth of electric power demand due to data center installed in Italy in 2030.
And so we decided not to dismiss the thermal electric power plant in Turbigo and to install an air thermal sister to improve the availability and effectiveness of our services during the summer periods. And these plants in Moncalieri and Turbigo will come -- will be kicked off in 2028 and will be supported by the prices of the capacity markets. And after the development plan for the residential segment, thanks to the Superbonus incentives, a strategic repositioning is expected. The focus will revolve around services for energy requalification of public buildings, thanks to the PPPs project and the energy plant requalification in the business segment.
The EUR 1.6 billion investments in the energy sector will allow to reach an EBITDA of EUR 350 million in 2030 with an average annual growth by 4% over 2024 in spite of a reduction of energy prices in our reference scenario. This result will be due to the increase of sold heat volumes after the development of the grid, increased PV power production and the contribution of the capacity market, confirming our strategic role as a driver of the energy business unit in the growth and development of the entire group.
Let's conclude our analysis with the market business unit, which aims at becoming a single point of reference for our clients, especially in the residential segment. We've started with this project, with this ambition 4, 5 years ago because competition is growing and the industrial plan aims at offering more value to the customer, thanks to targeted offers, cross-selling of the Iren Plus services and an enhanced customer service.
Our target is to increase profitability and customer loyalty, reducing the churn rate. So we're expecting a stable customer base with 2.3 million clients with a growth in the electric segment and reduction in the gas segment. As for the power, the electrical power segment, our aim is to increase volumes of sales throughout PPA on the mid and long term of B2C and B2B customers with an objective of 200 gigawatt per hour in 2028, so as to stabilize profitability on the electric power supply chain, while the gas supply chain will be diversified, the supply portfolio will be elongated throughout [indiscernible] annual multi-annual LNG contract for 20% of the total need.
Alongside the sale of commodities, we will offer a broad portfolio of products and services for the residential services with the objective of reaching 1 client out of 2 with an additional service. The digitalization of the customer experience will allow the service to evolve maintaining its strong presence at the local level, which characterizes our approach to our clients.
And we have several physical contact points at the local level, which can be reached in less than 15 minutes. We will strengthen this local dimension with the opening of 120 contact points, new stores, especially in Southern Europe, where we have achieved important results on the customer base. Investments by EUR 600 million will allow to maintain the current level of customer base with an EBITDA -- expected EBITDA of EUR 230 million, which is stable over the 2024 financial year.
And the Egea operation is balancing the reduction of unit margins in the gas sales, while we are expecting a stable unit margins in the power sales, supported by the enhancing of the natural hedging driving by the integrated chain of power generation and sales. As for sustainability, 70% of the total -- in the 2025, 2030 period, that's EUR 4.3 billion, which are sustainable and admissible for the European taxonomy. 33% of investments is devoted to the protection of water resources by reducing environmental collection, thanks to a marked decrease of leakage on the net.
And on the other hand, by recovering purified water and putting it back into the ecosystem, thanks to the construction of 5 new treatment plants -- management plants, sorry, increasing the purifying capacity by 17%. 28% of the investments will be devoted to support the cities we operate, which throughout increased resilience and sustainability throughout solutions such as district heating and 26% of investments is for decarbonization with a long-term objective of a carbon intensity, which is lower than 130 gCO2 per kilowatt hour, contributing to the achievement of the national and European targets.
Finally, 13% is devoted -- of investments will be devoted to circular economy with the target of increasing waste management, but also to increase waste recovery with a plus 500 kilotons and the production of biomethane by biodegradable waste, which will increase by 20 million cubic meters. One of the pillars of the industrial plan is confirmation and enhancement of the synergy plan, which has already started in the previous period. The expected synergies at the end of 2030 totaled EUR 120 million with a linear growth of approximately EUR 20 million per year in continuity with the 2020 results.
Part of the value that we generated in the past, however, did not translate completely into an EBITDA increase due to emerging costs connected to a development plan started in 2021 on all business lines. This industrial plan, on the contrary, strengthens the commitment on synergies with EUR 16 million that we have already achieved in the first 9 months of 2025. This is the first year of full operation of the plan and the strong action on cost control and increased efficiency in organization has allowed this results.
The synergies that we have identified imply a reduction by 6% of the cost base, including industrial, general and staff costs. This is a realistic objective pursued with the involvement of all company areas. Over the last plan, part of the synergies will be absorbed by emerging costs totaling EUR 35 million, which are connected on the increase of staff costs due to contract adjustments, national contract adjustments, which exceeded the inflation. These were not foreseeable previously.
So synergies are not only a motor driving force for effectiveness, but also an instrument which allows to balance the unexpected costs. The concrete results that the synergy plan is generating is based on continuous monitoring and on the mapping of 200 involved projects for the recovery of profits and achievement of economic, financial management objectives of the Group.
These projects can be classified into 3 main categories: people with the simplification and increased effectiveness on the organization for the optimization of the replacement rate and an increase of total productivity, transformation for the rationalization of the Group structure and more focus on core business supported by digitalization and artificial intelligence and effectiveness with the consolidation of departments and internal specialization of competencies and interventions for the optimization of waste management and the quality of the service.
And the benefits will be a more rational company organization with the integration of small companies in the year-end business units, which is already implying saving on facility costs and the streamlining of the company activities, which in 2026 will also involve the agile companies.
Secondly, the digitalization of processes at the business and holding levels, thanks to the introduction of tools which are technologically advanced, especially artificial intelligence in the first phases of client management services.
Then we have an aggregation of call center and invoicing with a centralization of client management activities and invoice issuing activities under the market business unit, which has replaced the previous individual structures of networks and environment, thus ensuring more effectiveness from the organizational point of view regardless of the business area.
And then there is an optimization of facilities during 2025, 13 peripheral facilities or facilities with a small number of employees have been closed in favor of the main facilities with a total saving of EUR 1 million. This activity, which was made possible, thanks to smart working and the subsequent rotation of desks has generated benefits not only in terms of OpEx reductions, but also operative improvement and strengthening of corporate culture.
And I would like to finish with the financial section. An important plan of investments are planned for the Group, and they mirror the main financial objectives. The EBITDA is expected to grow with an average annual rate of 4%, reaching EUR 1.6 billion in 2030. This was made possible by the visibility of the profits deriving from regulated and semi-regulated activities, which in 2030 will generate approximately 75% of the Group's EBITDA. And you can see the organic growth with a contribution of EUR 270 million with the development of the asset base.
It is consistent with the development investment plan, which is EUR 206 billion and the annual contribution of EBITDA exceeds 10% apart for the development investments of 3 new WTEs, which will be kicked off in 2032 and 2033, the contribution of the EBITDA investments would grow by more than 12%.
As far as synergies are concerned, the effectiveness and integration enhancement activities will generate margins estimated at EUR 120 million. However, these benefits will be compensated by an increase in staff costs of EUR 35 million due to contract adjustments, which is still being developed, and they are expected to be higher than the current inflation rates.
As for inorganic growth, the EGEA operation will contribute for approximately EUR 60 million. And then the energy scenario a negative impact is expected because of the uncertainty of the scenario. And the PUN in 2030 is expected to be lower than EUR 100 per megawatt per hour and the clean spark spread approximately at EUR 3 per megawatt per hour.
And then the margin of the rich clients, the industrial plan hypothesizes a reduction of profits on this segment because the extraordinary margins of 2024 in the gas segment and the increased market competition will cause this block, the expected growth of the EBITDA will have a positive impact on the group net profit with a compound annual growth rate of 7%. This increase is also due to the acquisition at the beginning of the year of the minority shares of Iren Acqua, which will benefit the group net profit by EUR 200 million approximately.
In conclusion, in 2030, some important plants will still be underway, will still be in their phase of completion. So what we've mentioned before in terms of EBITDA growth and the growth of the group's net profit does not reflect the full potential of the investment plan. In particular, the 3 new WTE plants will be kicked off only in 2032, 2033, generating an increase of the EBITDA of at least EUR 100 million. This contribution of margins will lead the CAGR of the EBITDA to 5% and the net profit to 8%, further enhancing the growth of the group.
Giovanni, I'll leave you the floor.
Well, as for the net debt evolution, we confirm that this plan is a strong commitment to the maintenance of the current rating, which is BBB with an outlook of stable by S&P and Fitch agencies. In the first graph, you can see the net financial debt ratio, EBITDA ratio, which is expected to be decreasing from 3.2% in 2024 to 3% in 2030. This will progressively increase the financial flexibility of the group and the further growth options, both in organic and inorganic terms will benefit from it. The maximum threshold of the IFN EBITDA ratio is 3.5%, and it is compatible with the current rating metrics strengthened by a business portfolio, which will tend to regulated activities with an increase -- an expected increase of the net financial position from EUR 4.1 billion to EUR 4.9 billion in 2030.
However, over the previous plans, financial solidity is mainly supported by 2 elements. First of all, among the funding sources, so we did not include cash-ins due to asset dismissal or financial partnerships. Therefore, the investment plan is entirely covered by the operational cash flow. And the operational cash flow will also cover almost 50% of our commitment on dividends, while in the previous plans, this percentage was way lower. And the financial profile of Iren is still quite stable, characterized by a low level of risk for the entire duration of the plan with the debt cost, which is increasing due to refinancing expected for the next years with the objective of an average duration of debt of 5 years.
The average debt cost will be lower than 2.5% in 2025, 2026 and lower than 2.9% in the remaining part of the plan. This result will be achieved, thanks to high fixed rate debt, which is 94% today and a constant growth in sustainable financing.
On the right, you can see the financing plans, which are about to expire and they will have to be refinanced and not the equity content and take a look at these results and the graph of the right, which, however, again, I repeat, does not include the equity content of the hybrid bond, which was mentioned previously, and it will expire in 2030.
I would like to give the floor to our President.
Now in light of the planned solidity and the visibility of the ROEI, the dividend policy is substantially extended to 2030. And this will provide more stability and visibility. So the annual growth of the dividend is confirmed at 8% until 2027. In the 2028 to 2030 period, a new increase of the dividends is expected totaling 6% every year.
So the increase of the dividend policy is consistent with a minimum payout ratio of 60% and in line with an annual average growth of the EPS of 7%. So we have 1% increase, thanks also to the kickoff of the 3 new WTEs. Financial flexibility allows us to seize new opportunities of strategic development, which have not been included in the plan, the strategic options were included in the so-called basic plans because we're still uncertain about their potential for implementation and because they depend on external factors, which cannot be governed by the group.
And so you can see a strategic basket with organic growth options in all business units. However, also inorganic growth will be enabled by our multi-utility approach, which may lead to an EBITDA increase until EUR 100 million, supported by investments amounting to EUR 600 million. This is a volume in lined with our expected financial flexibility.
As for inorganic growth is concerned, its effects on EUR 100 million of EBITDA in our multi-utility structure, which will allow us to further develop 2 strategic lines. First of all, the strengthening of the companies that we already own with minority shares by strengthening the industrial profit and financial approach of the group throughout acquisitions of participation in tenders in the environmental and water service domains.
As for organic options, according to the regulation evolution, we expect an acceleration of investments in the power grids and water grids due to the focused multi-business approach for the increased effectiveness of the portfolio business.
In the Environment business unit, we're a leader in the revamping and modernization of WTE for the management of urban waste in the energy BU. We look to data centers of medium and small size at a local level for -- and we would like to use the synergies of our plants. We are creating an internal business manual business model for direct supply and continued supply of electric power and recovery of waste heat to be used for district heating, and we can anticipate a development scenario of this technology with a benefit for the EBITDA estimated in plus EUR 25 million in 2030.
Market business units, we would like to capitalize on our competencies in energy management, and we are assessing the possibility to further extend to clients in the B2C and B2B segments with a target at 2030 of 1.5 TWH of PPA in sales, optimizing the profiles with long-term purchasing from renewable sources.
In conclusion, we are really satisfied by this plan, which is supported by leveraged by factors, which are under our control and for the sharing of value creation for our shareholders throughout an increase in profitability, supported by the development of regulated sector and increased effectiveness during performance, a clear dividend policy and with a total shareholder return, which is very interesting, 30% on average every year, a strategic positioning, which is more focused on business where we have significant competitive advantage, and we're getting ready for new opportunities, which are not included in the plan as we did in the past in order to accelerate development.
Javier Suarez from Mediobanca has the first question.
2. Question Answer
I had a question on the paradigm shift. I think I understood that the company does not have CapEx.
I'm sorry, I can hear an echo and cannot really understand the question.
Can you please provide concrete examples of the CapEx that have been reviewed in order to achieve a profitability, which is similar to the previous plan with a capital intensity, which is significantly lower. This is the first question, which should be answered with regards the philosophy underlying capital allocation.
The second question is about the leverage of the company. The 3.5 data is very interesting for me. Previously, I had the impression that you basically rested on laurels in contract terms, but also in structural terms. So with a model which is less capital intensive and more controllable by management, can we say that 3.5 leverage is more comfortable for the company and for the next business plan for the next 5 years of the business plan, maybe it is more comfortable to seize new opportunities this way.
And the third question is about the return on investment, which is more competitive on the market, which has been more competitive on the market in recent times. And I've seen that you are expecting a growth on the market. And what are the levers that you think are more effective in meeting the needs of this market, which is more competitive than in the past?
I will answer the first question, then Giovanni will answer the second question. And the third question will be answered by Gianluca.
As for your first question is concerned, focusing on the most profitable CapEx and so on and so forth. Well, I think that the right answer is this. We are focusing on water and electrical power grid services. We know that there is a high demand for investments and this will increase our resilience in the light of climate change.
With renewables, we have a low return on investment today. The demand for renewables is very high. But we have mentioned the FER X bid, which has implied a strong reduction in the award in price and the FER X decree has not been implemented yet. This is my answer in terms of investments.
As for the net profit, our industrial plan provides for approximately EUR 400 million. So it is not really different from the previous plan. So what is the main ratio behind that? The main rationale -- sorry, well, there was an operation, which is the agile operation, which has not been included in the plan. In the previous plan, the operations had a lower impact on the EBITDA because the equity had a cost, which was higher than the debt cost. So we have reshaped the profits aimed at a reduction of the EBITDA because profits in some regards are more important than the EBITDA.
Now as for the second question is concerned, you were talking about a threshold. Well, we're talking about a maximum threshold here. Our aim is to keep a profile, which progressively reduces from 3.2 to 3.0. That area is a flexibility area, allowing us to seize some opportunities for growth that we've talked about. And the financial effort is EUR 50 million, but then these operations will generate cash and -- we believe that this flexibility should be taken advantage of to create new opportunities for growth, both in organic and inorganic terms because that threshold allows us to keep our rating by the agencies, which is BBB stable.
So we're not talking about a structural value at 3.5. We're talking about the financial opportunity to bring about development worth in EUR 100 million EBITDA increase.
The most effective strategies for the management of supply customers. Well, this is a plan based on a more competitive scenario. There are larger stakeholders increased the churn from 2024 to 2030. The expected reduction per client is EUR 10, EUR 10 is a very ambitious target. For years, we have believed in offering new products and services. We're talking about a portfolio of approximately 400,000 contracts. We're talking about one clients out of 4. We're talking about 50% of clients that have found solutions to improve their lives, be it an insurance policy or more effective generation of electrical power in their house.
Please keep in mind that this increases the lifespan of a client. Whenever we sell a product, a service, we have a churn effect of 15% on clients who have already bought some other solutions. We're talking about 4 clients out of 10 and an objective, which is 1 client out of 2.
The quality of our service was the topic of the third question. We have more than 120 stores. The client that sees Iren as somebody, which provides quality services regarding power generation power supply, but also in terms of waste management, in terms of customer service. That is why we continue adopting our multi-utility multiservice platform approach and app.
Our app is a great success, which contributes to the quality of our service. Thirdly, which we should prolong the supply chain, our portfolio still contains products, which should be renewed, but we have already started this renewal of contracts. The new contracts are 3, 5 years, 50% with a fixed rate and 50% with a variable rate are a way to provide long-term proposals to our retail segment.
And then as for the supply aspect, long-term supplies of gas throughout LNG, throughout re-gasification facilities in 2028 is a cost factor, which, however, will be included in the synergies, which will be brought about by the renewal of the market business unit and be absorbed by the adoption of artificial intelligence and other improvements of the customer services.
Emanuele Oggioni from Kepler Cheuvreux.
I have some questions as well. First of all, the first question is about the market business unit. I believe that since cut of 300,000 clients by 2030, but I think the EBITDA will remain the same. So we have a target of 230. So the profitability would be EUR 30 per client. That means much lower margins. So how can these figures be compatible with the fact that you've adopted a cautious approach with the reduction of margins with 300,000 decrease in clients, I would have expected a reduction -- a greater reduction of the EBITDA. How do you explain that?
The second question is about the 2026 margins, EBITDA, net profit and the debt EBITDA ratio for 2026.
The third question is a request for specifications on the hydroelectric CapEx. The CapEx related to the hydroelectric segment. You've been mentioning that some CapEx are connected to concession renewal. Also due to the PPPs that you're already discussing and you've been discussing for long, for example, for the Piedmont region.
Can you please provide more specific figures? Can you please tell us whether there is the opportunity for repowering to increase capacity, increase the pumping storage, the nominal capacity, night storage, increasing effectiveness. Are these aspects included in the plan? Or maybe you're just waiting for the renewals of concessions to become officials?
Well, Gianluca, Giovanni and then I say one question each.
Now as for the customers, your projection is right. So EUR 240 million of EBITDA. We have a delta of EUR 10 million over the previous plan. And the EUR 10 per client that I was mentioning is the reduction of the trade margins. When also on the market, the reinforced synergies and the cost trends of the business units are reversed, we will see the effects of this. And if you take the EBITDA into consideration, what you say is absolutely correct. Only one further aspect. The competition scenario is stronger. The competition is fiercer. But today, we have an expected margins, which are higher than the previous plan. This is something which should be said. However, there are some trends on the cost of labor, the cost of employees, which are unpredictable, but the dynamics here are more resilient.
Well, the second question, the 2026, the EBITDA is expected to increase by 4%. The guidance for 2025 full year was different the ratio IF EBITDA is expected to keep at 3.1%. It is a better forecast than 3.2% as we had expected at the beginning of the year, EUR 950 million are the returns over the 2025. As for the net profits are concerned, I can confirm a growth which is in line with the 2028 target. Let's say that the CAGR that we provided by 7% will be confirmed.
As for the third question, which is related to hydroelectric power, I would like to stress once again that we are the only energy company in Italy, which has already established a PPP. So our project has already been acquired as a project for the bid for tender that will be launched in a short time. So our position is quite stable, quite solid. We are more than optimistic. We're positive.
As for investments are concerned, we expect EUR 320 million on hydroelectric power, tanks, storage tanks and pipelines, a pumping station on the [indiscernible] basin and some repowering projects with limited capacity. And we have 2 bids for tenders, one for larger volumes and another one, which are still underway.
Now, Equita, with Roberto Letizia.
I would like to ask a question on market forecast and on the paradigm shift. For renewables, the sourcing costs were crucial in becoming more effective in the trade proposals. I would like to get to know in the plan period, how do you expect to reabsorb this paradigm shift in the plan period?
And secondly, can you please tell us more about the coverage for 2026? And -- some words on the power price because I can see that there is substantial stability of the power prices, but we're starting to see the forward curves that were longer term in the past. Now they're shorter term. And today, you're talking about the policies of renewal of gas contracts with the new policies for 2028 at the international level. We are expecting more availability of gas starting at the international level, starting 2027. So how did you get to a power price, which is in the region that you had mentioned.
Well, first Gianluca, then Giovanni.
Well, sourcing costs, I would like to start from physical sourcing. We're talking about large volumes of investments and new installations of PV power. This means that there is power generation that is lower than the portfolio demand. But then we maintain Turbigo, which counterbalances this.
From the point of view of cost advantages, the advantage is that the production is sourced from renewables totally green, Turbigo however is not green. And however, the certified source was green. As for the market margins are concerned, every purchase is targeted on the PUN value regardless of the product values.
The production of renewables peaks when you have a [ sand ] from 10 to 6, but not in line with consumption by the retail customers. So hedging coupling with the thermal power -- of thermal power is not in line with solar power. There's always a need for backup as for solar power is concerned. And in order to continue with the provision of green services for our services and our products, we are turning into long-term PPA sourcing from green sources, of course, in order to meet the needs of this segment, which is modulated between the photovoltaic and wind power.
Well, as for coverage is concerned, last year, the coverage was 50% on our renewable sources in 2026, this percentage increased to 60%. And so hydroelectric, solar power, WTE are all sources, which will be maintained in 2026. This was the opportunity to communicate our production power for 2025, which is higher than our target for 2026, which is approximately 100 gigawatts per hour. As for thermal electric power coverage is still low, the forward curves have negative spark spreads starting from the second quarter.
In the first quarter, we have positive spark spreads. That's why we started working on the coverage whose values are approximately EUR 3.5 per kilowatt per hour. Our visibility is not so connected to forward curves because they're not reliable when it comes to delivery. This is something we analyzed in October. We had a clean spread, which are quite significant, and they cannot be read according to the forward curves of June, July. So what we know for certain is that the hours that are useful for our power generation are 1,200, 1,300. And as for coverage is concerned, the fixed rate contracts are increasing. However, they are 100% covered as usual.
Now, the next question is by Intesa, Davide Candela.
I'm curious about a couple of things. The first one is waste as for collection is concerned, there is an increase of margins until 2028. And I think it refers to the aggregation of the legacy areas that you were mentioning. Do you think -- do they have a name and surname or maybe there's a risk related to concessions, which may not be granted for waste management.
And my second question is about the CapEx plan, EUR 1.2 billion right? And at the end of the plan, are there margins due to the WTEs, which will be kicked off in 2028, 2032, 2033.
And finally, can you please specify what you mean by the loss of equity content for the hybrid bond? Is the refinancing expected? These are 2 different scenarios.
Well, Gianluca and then Giovanni.
Well, let's start with the margins. There's an increase of the EBITDA margins on waste collection. Our strength is being a leader in waste collection, and we do not expect further growth at the local level with concessions related to waste collection, which exceeded the more than 4 million inhabitants of the areas we serve.
Two drivers are quite important for us. The first is investments, especially first of all, in the Tuscany region for waste collection, there are financial plans for the Tuscany region, which are increasing. The tariffs are increasing up until 2028, and they will consist of the return of investments into collection. We would like to make collection increasingly diversified and customized and automatized and digitalized.
At the group level, we have approximately 1,300 vehicles for urban waste collection, which are digitalized, provided with OT systems are optimized by the AI. We have more than 500 facilities with OT sensors, which monitor to which extent the bin is full. It should be avoided. And we're looking to improve automatic systems. We're looking to improve cost reduction through synergies. The collection is not the domain where we are looking to make further investments.
As far as thermal waste recovery systems are concerned, you've seen our forecast by 2032, EUR 400 million will be invested in WTE, EUR 340 million of which are destined to the Turin area where we will completely close the waste cycle in the Piedmont region and the remaining part looks to 2030, while the fourth line will enter into force in 2031. In 2030 is also the horizon for the completion of the WTE in Gioia Tauro and Liguria. We're talking about EUR 70 million the magnitude of investments will be completed in 2031, 2032. We expect processes expected is already very advanced. We will complete our plan in 2032, in Liguria in 2033.
Francesco Sala from Banca Akros.
I have a question on waste management, the increase of the EBITDA in this segment. And I would like to know more about the reasons of this improvement.
My second question is on the Energy business unit, especially as for renewables are concerned in 2024, in the 2024, 2028 period, we've seen a shift of dynamics.
And finally, should we take into account the public financing for the CapEx plan?
Now the 2 questions on waste for Gianluca and the third for Giovanni.
As for waste and EBITDA, the strategic cycles 2021, 2030 included investments for waste management and material recovery, waste recovery, thanks to the collection that we're managing at the local level. And we've seen that quarter after quarter, the kickoff of facilities brought to profits, which were lower than expected, but -- in the fourth quarter of 2025, we've seen improvements. We were able to adjust some technical aspects of our plants. We did so, and we're already recovering profits. We will continue to do so until 2028.
As for waste management is concerned, as I was saying before, the [indiscernible] plant, the [indiscernible] facility will generate a new increase in the EBITDA until 2026. However, waste management in our capital allocation plan is a segment where we will aim at maintaining our position that generates significant values and significant EBITDA growth, but we will not expand into further directions.
As for the public funding is concerned, we expect EUR 500 million during the plan period, which are connected to the last resiliency plan initiatives concerning power grids, integrated water networks, but also environmentally sustainable plants, the FORSU plant and waste collection. There are also public funding, which derive from the awarding of some projects. And we will present new projects and the normal, of course, contributions due to new grids and the expansion of existing grids. Are you talking about renewables?
Well, Giovanni, I would like to spend a new words. Our installed capacity today is 240 megawatts. We focused on sun power generation, the authorized pipeline, we see the development of further 200 megawatts. In the past years, we have acquired new capacities. There will be a selection in capital allocation of projects which are already available and will generate profits in line with our capital allocation. They will contribute with EUR 200 million of EBITDA. And we're still waiting for the outcomes of the temporary FER X project, especially as far as the Rovigo facility is concerned.
The temporary FER X for Rovigo is still underway. So we're waiting for news. We're positive. We think there will be good news. As for the entire pipeline, we have 200 megawatts. We will generate 200 further megawatts. So that's 400 megawatts in total without the 49% share in renewables. However, this pipeline projects will provide the expected profits with however, these projects are not really profitable. And hence, the reduction by EUR 700 million in investments on sun power.
We have a follow-up by Javier, Mediobanca.
And the Slide #23 is about a hybrid bond for EUR 500 million. How -- what's the story behind this hybrid bond in the construction of your plan and designing of your plan?
Well, this hybrid bond was considered according to international accounting standards. We're talking about net assets, so EUR 500 million. Rating agencies consider 50% as equity and 50% is debt. And we're talking about something which is net assets, not IFN.
Thank you for your attention. I can't see any other questions in the queue. The Investor Relations team is available. If you have further questions, you can contact them directly. I will now give the floor to Gianluca.
Thank you, Giulio. Thank you for your questions. Thank you for your interest. We think that so we've explained the new business plan, the new industrial plan in a very transparent way. It is a very concrete down to earth plan, and we are aiming at becoming more rigorous, becoming more selective in new investments. We're looking for profits, not only EBITDA. This is our mantra for the next years, and we think that the plan is quite solid, and it will last not only during the next year, but also until then...
[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]
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Finanzdaten von Iren
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Jun '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 9.173 9.173 |
9 %
9 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 3.234 3.234 |
22 %
22 %
35 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 5.939 5.939 |
1 %
1 %
65 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 4.224 4.224 |
1 %
1 %
46 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 1.905 1.905 |
1 %
1 %
21 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 1.089 1.089 |
7 %
7 %
12 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 816 816 |
9 %
9 %
9 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 463 463 |
6 %
6 %
5 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen EUR.
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| Hauptsitz | Italien |
| CEO | Mr. Bergesio |
| Mitarbeiter | 11.900 |
| Gegründet | 2010 |
| Webseite | www.gruppoiren.it |


