Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Aktienkurs
Vergleich mit Peer Group
📊 Peer Group
📈 Was ist das?
Die Peer Group sind die Unternehmen mit dem ähnlichsten Geschäftsmodell. Sie dienen als Vergleichsmaßstab, um eine Aktie einzuordnen.
🧮 Wie wird sie ausgewählt?
Nach Ähnlichkeit des Geschäftsmodells, also Unternehmen aus derselben Branche, mit vergleichbaren Produkten und einer ähnlichen Kundengruppe. Nur so vergleichst du Äpfel mit Äpfeln.
🏛️ Wofür ist sie wichtig?
Ob eine Aktie günstig oder teuer ist, lässt sich am ehesten im Vergleich beurteilen. Ein KGV von 18 oder ein EV/FCF von 20 wirkt je nach Maßstab günstig oder teuer. Die Peer Group liefert dabei den treffsichersten Maßstab: Unternehmen mit ähnlichem Geschäftsmodell, die denselben Bedingungen unterliegen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
Liegt eine Kennzahl unter dem Peer-Durchschnitt, ist die Aktie relativ günstiger bewertet, über dem Durchschnitt entsprechend teurer. Ein Abschlag zur Peer Group kann eine Chance sein, aber auch einen Grund haben (zum Beispiel geringeres Wachstum). Der Vergleich ist ein Startpunkt, kein Urteil.
Insights zu Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 7,31 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 874,09 Mio. $
Marktkapitalisierung = 7,31 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 937,09 Mio. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 7,17 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 874,09 Mio. $
Enterprise Value = 7,17 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 937,09 Mio. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF spiegelt die tatsächliche Finanzkraft eines Unternehmens wider – unabhängig von den bilanziellen Gewinnen. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum ein Unternehmen für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder den Schuldenabbau hat.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
32 Analysten haben eine Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
32 Analysten haben eine Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Prognose abgegeben:
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Events
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us at the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference. I'm Mike Ulz, one of the biotech analysts, and it's my pleasure to introduce Brett Monia, CEO of Ionis Pharmaceuticals. Just a reminder, the format for today is a fireside chat. But before we start, I just need to read a quick disclosure. For important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. And if you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative.
And with that, I'll hand it over to Brett. Thanks for joining us. And maybe you can start with a couple of introductory comments before we hop in queue.
Thanks, Mike. Good morning, everybody. It's great to be here, Mike. Thanks for the invite. So as expected and not surprising with the pipeline is deep and rich as ours, we were expecting a highly eventful year for Ionis, and that's exactly where we are with a lot more to come in the remaining months of the year. We're on track this year to push 3 breakthrough medicines across the finish line through the FDA, 3 drug approvals. We already have 2 severe hypertriglyceridemia breakthrough medicine, Tryngolza, was approved few days early in June. And just last week, we had the approval of our first wholly owned neurology medicine, Zanvastro, for Alexander disease, the first disease-modifying treatment ever approved by the FDA.
And we're expecting a third FDA approval in October with our partner, GSK, for chronic HBV, a real breakthrough that's actually producing unprecedented and functional cures in this patient population. We've also had expanding our Phase III pipeline. We completed enrollment in our Phase III Angelman's trial, which is on track for data in the second half of this year. And we're pleased to see new Phase III starts from our partner, salanersen, the first follow-on to SPINRAZA for SMA that is on track for -- to produce a medicine with deeper -- even deeper efficacy than SPINRAZA based on biomarker data with once per year administration. And then Sapablursen started Phase III development with our partner, Ono this year with a profile that has the potential to be best-in-class for polycythemia vera.
Mid-stage pipeline continues to produce as well. We are thrilled with the first ever proof of concept for our tau program with Biogen, diranersen, which showed unprecedented improvements in cognition and other functional benefits as well. And then our follow-on to Tryngolza proof of concept as a once a year or twice a year administration as a follow-on to Tryngolza, ION775 in severe hypertriglyceridemia, which is in Phase II development. With a pipeline as deep and with so many events happening, there's always disappointments. We are disappointed with the negative outcome of the CARDIO-TTRansform study for eplontersen and TTR cardiomyopathy. Despite the fact that we had remarkable reductions in TTR that were as good as anything that's out there today, approximately 80% reduction with good safety and tolerability, didn't hit the composite primary endpoint.
That was a key focus at ESC a couple of weeks ago, where the conclusions were clear that the reason why we didn't hit the primary endpoint was because there was no added benefit on top of a stabilizer. However, the monotherapy group, that is patients that weren't on stabilizer at baseline were -- had a hazard ratio that's as good as anything that's out there in TTR cardiomyopathy, a hazard ratio of approximately 30% reduction. And we're working on potential next steps there.
And then last week, we were also disappointed with the outcome of the pelacarsen Phase III trial in Lp(a) cardiomyopathy. And we're looking forward to our partner, Novartis, presenting the full data set there. But on top of those disappointments, we have a really, really strong pipeline, and we're really proud of all the successes we've had and the launches that are in progress, which are going quite well.
Great. Thanks for that introduction and a lot going on and a lot to cover here. So maybe we'll start just with the SHTG launch. You're, I think, 2 months in now, still very early here. But maybe just talk about what you're seeing there in terms of trends and how that's all progressing?
We're pleased to have delivered the first real breakthrough for severe hypertriglyceridemia with an incredibly strong, positive clean label. Unprecedented reductions in acute pancreatitis. This is the outcome that patients are most fearful of, that physicians are most fearful of, a potentially fatal acute pancreatitis attack. There has been no meaningful treatments for severe hypertriglyceridemia before Tryngolza emerged and was approved by the FDA. As a reminder to everybody, this is a label expansion. Our first indication was familial chylomicronemia syndrome, FCS, a rare population of about 3,000 people in the United States. That launch was going exceptionally well right up to the label expansion, right up to the approval for severe hypertriglyceridemia.
And then we expanded the label, adjusted the price from a rare disease price to a price that's more suitable for a highly prevalent disease, prevalence of more than 3 million people in the United States. So this has the -- this is positioned to be a blockbuster, and we're on track to achieve our goal of $3 billion plus peak product sales in the United States. The launch is going well. We're liking what we're seeing on all aspects of the launch to date, the metrics that we're assessing.
First of all, we're thrilled with the excitement by the HCP community. I'm sure you've done your research, you've talked to your docs. They're all saying how excited they are about Tryngolza and their enthusiasm to want to treat and write scripts and get their patients on this drug, particularly those patients that are at high risk for acute pancreatitis. The launch is going well. We're excited about the enthusiasm. We're excited about the scripts that are coming in. July and August were very good months. And we're excited about what we're seeing from the payer community, the coverage that we're getting for Tryngolza.
Although, of course, at this stage of the launch, most coverage is going through a medical exception process with prior authorizations. But we are getting policies in place. And based on those policies as well as all the other conversations we're having with payers, we're getting coverage to label, right, not just acute -- not just the high-risk patient population, but the label that is anyone that is -- has triglycerides above 500. We have -- we expected the patients that were going to be prioritized in this study would be those high-risk patients by physicians, endocrinologists, cardiologists, lipid specialists. And that's what we're seeing. These are the patients that have triglycerides through the roof above 880 milligrams per deciliter at high risk for acute pancreatitis attack with debilitating effects on the pancreas, of course, long term.
And those that have had a history of acute pancreatitis, around about 700,000, 800,000, 900,000 patients that are at high risk. Those are the ones that we're seeing the scripts written for first, not surprisingly. I could also tell you though, we are seeing some scripts coming in that are in the non-high-risk category, patients that are in the 500 to 800 range without a history of acute pancreatitis. So that's getting out there, too. But the priority for us and the priority with HCPs is the high-risk patient population. I could also say that we're excited or we're really pleased how well the dosing is resonating with the HCP community. We are the only medicine that offers dosing flexibility of 50 milligrams or 80 milligrams per month, self administered using a simple auto-injector. That dosing flexibility, as I said, has resonated really well.
We're seeing scripts come in with the 50-milligram dose and physicians are looking at the response to 50 milligrams and seeing if their patients are at goal that is below 500 milligrams per deciliter, they're fine. We're also seeing scripts come in at 80 milligrams right out of the gate. Remember, the 80-milligram dose is what's approved in FCS. We have a lot of docs that are managing FCS patients and are really pleased with the performance of Tryngolza in FCS, and they're saying, why start at 50 milligrams in my SHTG patients? Just roll it right through and bring on the -- and get those patients to the max dose.
We're also pleased how the response by the community, the physicians, and the patients because we require no monitoring in the study. It's a simple administration, really no significant step edits. Your patients will need to be on a triglyceride drug, like a Fibrate or a fish oil or something like that before going on to Tryngolza. But all these high-risk patients are already on these drugs, right? They are still not at goal. So it's not really a step edit. It's just getting those patients identified and bringing them on to Tryngolza.
So this is a new category. We're developing a new category. We're going to build this market. It's going to take a little bit of time, but we're pleased with the way the enthusiasm for the drug, and we're pleased with everything we're seeing with the launch today. And we're looking forward to providing a more detailed update at our end of our Q3 earnings in a few weeks.
Great. It sounds like things are on track there, but maybe you could talk about keys to driving the continued success of the launch kind of near term and then longer term.
The keys are disease awareness and drug awareness, making the physicians aware of the remarkable profile that Tryngolza offers. Efficacy, convenience, tolerability and the dosing flexibility that I highlighted with no monitoring in the study or for the drug. That has resonated really well. Launching off of FCS. All the docs that manage FCS patients also manage SHTG patients. And that experience has been so positive that we've really been able to build off of that leverage. Focusing in addition to physician HCP awareness and education is patient awareness. Know your triglycerides, get them measured, omnichannel, direct-to-consumer dissemination of information, the risks of high triglycerides. So we're going from the top, pushing down. We're going from the bottom, pushing up patients. And as I mentioned already, focusing on payer coverage and ensuring that we have a strong HCP and patient support program.
We are emphasizing and prioritizing, making the scripts that docs want to write bringing that all the way through the process in the most seamless, easiest way possible. It's really important to us, and our patient support program is a top priority, and it served us very well in FCS and off to a good start in SHTG, and we think it will serve us very well in the SHTG launch today. I want to emphasize, we remain very confident in our peak product sales of $3 billion plus in the U.S. It's going to take a little time to get there, but we're confident we're going to get there, and we're really looking forward to a big, big 2027.
Great. I also wanted to just ask your view on sort of these third-party scripts. A lot of people are taking a look at them. What's your sort of sense there?
Yes. We don't believe that like the Symphony scripts and IQVIA are a good measuring stick for what's happening in the launch. Like most companies do, we block our data. And we have several specialty pharmacies now that we're utilizing, not just one that we use for FCS. So you really can't compare the FCS data with the SHTG data and extrapolate. It's dangerous. It's unreliable. We really caution against that. Instead, I'd point you to the color we're looking forward to providing at our end of Q3 earnings and then next year at our end of our full year earnings, I think, in February of next year. So we're very cautious of that. We don't believe the data is reliable.
Yes. Understood. Can you maybe talk about the reaction to the safety profile of Tryngolza that you're seeing? And I guess, liver fat has been one area. Is that an issue, not an issue? What are you hearing?
We're hearing everything is positive about the safety profile for Tryngolza. Again, I said it twice now, I'll say it again, there's no monitoring for anything, LFTs. We have a very clean profile. Liver enzymes are clean. Everything is clean. We're really pleased with the adherence. Patients are getting on to drug. They're seeing their triglycerides plummet, get to normal and in most cases -- in many cases, and the adherence is excellent.
The HCPs are enthused about it. Liver fat is small. It's on target, and it wanes with continued treatment while triglycerides are being maintained and highly controlled and AP is being -- continued to be controlled. It's an on-target effect. We know how APOC3 works. By inhibiting APOC3 , we're substantially and very rapidly lowering triglycerides in these patients. And one of the pathways that were lowering triglycerides through the liver and the clearance. We see a small increase in liver fat. It's not even statistically significant at 50 milligrams in many patients. Most patients get to meet their goal at 50 milligrams. And at 80 milligrams, we saw a slight increase that was statistically significant at the end of the Phase III study. But then with continued dosing, it wanes and comes back to baseline.
The liver is adapting to this. We have a competitor program. There's a competitor that is following us. They're behind us by almost about a year or so. We expect to come out on SHTG and get approval. Although they didn't evaluate nearly the number of patients that we did, we evaluated because we really wanted to flesh out the full profile, like what do we need to know for Tryngolza. We evaluated 250 patients by MRI. They evaluated a few dozen.
But even with a few dozen at ESC, it was clear that you saw a numerical increase in hepatic fat. So it's an on-target effect, it's completely manageable. Most importantly, by the HCP community, it's a nonissue. It really never was an issue. And now the fact that it's coming -- they see it come back down to baseline with continued treatment, it's even less of an issue.
Yes. Makes sense. You mentioned the competitor. I don't know if you can maybe talk a little bit more about key points of differentiation. And since they might get to the market next year, kind of what impact could that have on your sort of launch?
Yes. So we're first to market by about a year, like I said. And we actually believe that having 2 players like a duopoly is very few in this massive market opportunity, more than 3 million people that are inadequately or not adequately being addressed with current treatments. We actually think that, that's going to provide an opportunity to grow the market, share of voice, better disease awareness by having 2 players actually expand the market with all of that. But we're going to take advantage of our first-to-market strategy. Our strategy is to build those contracts with payers, build first-mover advantage to get to those high-risk patients first, bring them on to Tryngolza.
We're confident once they come on to Tryngolza, they're going to be really pleased with the experience that they have, the HCPs as well as the patients. As far as differentiation, the 2 drugs look very similar. Efficacy, very, very highly efficacious. AP reductions, we think that -- we like our data a lot. We are looking forward to more details of our competitors' data. We saw what was presented at ESC, but we really do want to see the publication. It's really important to really get into the details and that kind of thing. So it's hard to say.
But overall, there's no surprises, the 2 drugs should work similarly. We're getting identical reductions of target APOC3. They should translate to similar efficacy. And we welcome 2 players in this really large market opportunity.
Yes. Makes sense. Also in your prepared remarks, you mentioned 775, your sort of next-gen program. Maybe talk a little bit more about that in terms of the data you've seen and time lines and path forward, if you can.
Yes. So when I became the CEO, I guess this is my 7th year now, not only did I commit to fully integrating the company and building our wholly-owned pipeline, delivering our medicines, I also committed to expanding and diversifying our technology. ASO, the newest chemistries, like I mentioned, salanersen, that's an Ionis chemistry that is supporting once per year dosing for SMA. We have more coming. Our Dravet program is using that same chemistry. We've expanded into siRNA. siRNA is more durable in the liver. We know that. But we've been able to take it to the next level with Ionis experience, capabilities, chemistries and so on.
And we've applied that to a follow-on to Tryngolza, recognizing that a once per year dosing or maybe twice a year dosing at a minimum, we can easily achieve that, but maybe push it to once per year dosing could really matter from a convenience standpoint for HCPs and patients. And we think our Phase I data supports that. We tested 775, and Ionis discovered using our chemistry SI, that showed incredibly durable reductions of target, APOC3, triglycerides, all good safety and tolerability, dose dependent. And we've already -- and that was a normal volunteer study in patients with mildly elevated triglycerides. That was presented at ESC, published now as well. Kind of old news, though.
We have already launched into Phase II development in SHTG, and we're enrolling quickly. Our goal is to protect Tryngolza. It's a blockbuster. We're the ones that innovated. We're the ones that came up with this program. We're the ones that came up with this target for this disease. And we want to make sure that we have waves -- next waves of approaches for this market opportunity. It's an open-label study purposely so that we can look at the data daily and look at target reduction, safety and triglyceride reduction and so that we can select the dose and dose interval and get into Phase III development as rapidly as possible, potentially next year.
Great. And what's your thought on the strategy there? Is it a replacement for Tryngolza? Is it for a different patient population? What's the early thinking?
To be determined. We'll see what the profile looks like. And we have to do -- our team is going to be doing the market research. Could it be complementary to Tryngolza? Or would it be the next best-in-class molecule for SHTG overall, and it could take everything over? We'll see about that. I suspect it will be complementary to Tryngolza, and we may be able to position it in different ways so that it offers something that Tryngolza doesn't offer and Tryngolza could offer something that 775 doesn't offer to be determined. We need to get into Phase III and move it quickly. We're working on the Phase III design now. I expect it won't look that different than our Phase III program for Tryngolza, just FDA has requirements. But we think we'll be able to trim those time lines down and move faster -- even faster than what we did for the Phase III program for Tryngolza.
Yes. Understood. You mentioned in your starting comments here about CARDIO-TTRansform and the data was a little bit disappointing. Maybe you can expand on that and what you think happened there, and then also what's the latest thinking on next steps. Is that evolving at all or where is that currently?
Yes. As I mentioned in my opening comments, we were disappointed that we didn't hit the positive -- we didn't have a positive outcome against the primary endpoint in the CARDIO-TTRansform study, eplontersen for TTR cardiomyopathy. We had 80% reductions in TTR, which was pretty much best you can do in this population, at least for current drugs that are out there that are addressing this disease, good safety, good tolerability, but we didn't hit the primary endpoint. We all had hoped that -- we all expected that the stabilizer that was primarily used in this study, we had 56% of patients on Tafamidis at baseline. Tafamidis is the standard of care. That was the only way to really run the study today.
And as Tafamidis is standard of care in the U.S. and as the markets grew outside the U.S., we saw lots of drop-ins, too. But the belief was that Tafamidis, there was a lot of room for improvement, right? Based on studies that were done 10 years ago, the ATTR-ACT study. But those patients were very sick and patients are being diagnosed much earlier in their disease today and Tafamidis did better than what most people had expected because patients are being treated earlier in their disease. That was our control group. That would have been okay had the combination of silencer plus a stabilizer showed added benefit compared to the control, but it didn't. We didn't see any added benefit of combination. That was the conclusion of an independent academic group's meta-analysis at ESC last year.
There's no evidence that the combination from any study shows added benefit, nothing deleterious, but nothing beneficial. That was the Achilles heel in the study. That's the study that needed to be done. Tafamidis is the standard of care, and we need to see if we can improve efficacy. Retrospect, maybe it wasn't surprising. We're targeting the same pathway. Stabilizer is stabilizing TTR, we're blocking the production of the TTR. So maybe we've maxed out on efficacy. Silencers work great on their own. Stabilizers appear to work very well as well on their own. And we think ultimately, it will come down to patient and physician preference, which ones they choose, but we don't think there's a path forward for combination for silencers and stabilizers.
With that said, in the group that wasn't on stabilizers at baseline, the efficacy was remarkable. We saw nearly a 30% relative risk reduction in the patients that we call the monotherapy group that weren't on stabilizers at baseline. There was a lot of drop-ins, but still they weren't on stabilizers at baseline. And that was comparable to the other silencer that was approved for TTR cardiomyopathy. So the monotherapy data looks great. Our partner and us, AstraZeneca and we are weighing next steps, and you'll probably have more clarity on that by the end of this year on whether or not we will pursue the monotherapy indication or not. So just stay tuned for that.
Okay. And if we just stick with the pipeline, I wanted to get your sort of thoughts on the Angelman program, maybe just give us a brief background there. And obviously, a competitor shared some data and read through.
Yes. It was very disappointing when we learned about the failed Phase III study with the lead program, the program that was in advance, utilizing the same mechanism that we're utilizing. This is a mechanism that we created. We were first to publish on it. We're basically targeting -- using an antisense strategy to upregulate the paternal UBE3A gene to basically replace a loss of function disease with the missing protein, UBE3A protein. It's a really elegant mechanism. And they're using the same mechanism. They saw what we published and they licensed in a drug. They licensed in a drug from an academic group that did some screening and found a molecule. I'm going to really highlight the fact that it's not routine to find an optimal molecule to do these kinds of things. It takes us years to optimize potency, durability and minimize off-target effects to reduce toxicities.
But they in-licensed the molecule and unfortunately, it caused issues on the safety side that caused them to be capped. Their dose was capped. So they couldn't go above 14 milligrams. Our Phase III study program ongoing is 80 milligrams. The 2 drugs are equally potent. So the potencies are the same. So you can imagine that maybe they underdosed. That's what we believe. And in fact, when we did our Phase II study called HALOS, we evaluated 20 milligrams quarterly, which is kind of in that range of 14 milligrams that they looked at in their Phase III program, 40 milligrams and 80 milligrams quarterly. At 20 milligrams, we kind of saw some hints of activity, but we weren't convinced.
When we went to 40 milligrams quarterly, we were convinced that we were seeing clear evidence of benefit. And when we got to 80 milligrams, our Phase III dose, we got a little bit better, but it looked like we were maxing out on efficacy. Unfortunately, we think that they underdosed in the study. It's devastating for the community. We've been ensuring the community that's been in such a desperate need for a disease-modifying treatment for this large patient population, the Angelman syndrome population.
But we will be the first to test the hypothesis because we believe that we're in the therapeutic range, the doses that are needed. And we believe that our Phase II data HALOS study strongly supports that. I also mentioned that our long-term extension data that we're now 18 months, we've got data cuts 18 months and beyond from the Phase II HALOS study and the efficacy is holding. We continue to be convinced that we're seeing strong evidence of benefit, and it continues to support Phase III development.
And we're going to publish that data soon, the long-term extension data for Angelman's. But we think we've got the right drug, and this is the right mechanism, and this will be the first test of this mechanism to address Angelman syndrome.
Great. And if we stick with the wholly owned pipeline and Alexander's disease, you mentioned that earlier, recently approved ahead of schedule. Maybe talk a little bit about that program and sort of what it means more broadly for your CNS pipeline.
Yes. We believe that, I think the evidence is clear, that we have led the way. We continue to lead the way in developing oligonucleotide therapeutics, ASO and now siRNA, we're doing a lot of work there, too, for CNS diseases. I mean, it's proven. We have 3 approved medicines now. You mentioned Zanvastro for Alexander disease. Preceding those were, of course SPINRAZA, the first ever treatment for SMA and then QALSODY, the first disease-modifying treatment for cause of ALS and now ZANVASTRO.
And we have a rich wholly-owned and partnered pipeline of CNS drugs following this. And we're expecting quite a number of readouts next year in addition to the Angelman's Phase III program, our mid-stage neuro program, we'll have several readouts next year, too. We're very proud of having delivered the first ever disease-modifying treatment for this devastating neurodegenerative disease, Alexander disease. It's caused by the overproduction of a protein called GFAP. We're normalizing GFAP. We're lowering GFAP. We've shown that, and we're having a disease-modifying impact on clinical outcomes in this study. This is an ultra-rare indication. It's estimated to be 300, 400 patients in the United States with Alexander disease. The prevalence is really not well understood.
When we unblinded our Phase III study, we saw the efficacy. We opened up an expanded access program immediately. And that expanded access program has actually enrolled pretty -- we were surprised how many patients actually enrolled in that expanded access program. Our focus is to convert our clinical trial patients and our expanded access patients over to commercial as quickly as possible. We're in the process of doing that. We're launched.
And of course, patient identification. It's a difficult disease to identify. It's a long patient journey. Every day, these patients aren't on a treatment like Zanvastro. They're one day closer usually to death. So patient identification, disease awareness is a big focus for us, and it's going well. Strategically, this is very important for Ionis because we're leaders in CNS diseases. We have a rich wholly-owned pipeline that's growing in addition to our partner pipeline. And this is strategic because it's our first wholly-owned launch in neurology.
And we have so many more neurology drugs, Angelman's, we talked about. And then many other programs that are reading out next year that can go to Phase III if they're successful. So strategically important for the company. And we're very proud of the fact that we are first -- once again, we are first in delivering a breakthrough treatment for a patient population that is in desperate need.
Great. And maybe last few minutes here, I want to focus back on your commercial assets and DAWNZERA and HAE. You launched it last year, I think. And maybe just talk about how that launch is going. It seems like you're getting more traction more recently and things are accelerating there.
Yes. DAWNZERA is going well. I mean this is very different than any of the medicines I just talked about, right? This is a highly competitive market in the sense of their existing prophylactic treatments for HAE that were already on the market when we arrived, when we were approved last August. We're 1 year into the launch and more have been coming, right, after that. So this is our first test in commercializing our own medicines, not just being first to market, which usually are, have been, but in a competitive space.
I'm proud of the team. I really am. I'm also proud of the drug. It has a real differentiating profile compared to other treatments that are out there with respect to not only efficacy, which is as good as anything that's out there today. So that's -- we've achieved that. The tolerability and the convenience of being able to self-administer once a month or every 2 months using a simple auto-injector that -- in which the drug is stable for 6 weeks at a time, longer than that, but the label says 6 weeks.
So you could put -- you could take it with you on vacation and not be worried about having to refrigerate or to reconstitute. It's a real easy drug to work with. And that profile, along with the outstanding effort that our team has done to educate HCPs and patients on the opportunity that DAWNZERA offers, launch is going well. I mean, it's a steady growth. We're having a good year for DAWNZERA, and we expect next year for it to continue to grow.
All right. Great. Looks like we're out of time here. So why don't we wrap it up. Brett, thanks so much for your time. We really appreciate it.
Thank you, Mike. It was a pleasure.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
Fireside Chat: Ionis betont starkes Launch-Momentum bei Tryngolza, recentes Neurology-Approval und breite Pipeline trotz einzelner Studienrückschläge.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: Ionis hebt die kommerzielle Dynamik bei Tryngolza (severe hypertriglyceridemia) und die kürzliche Zulassung von Zanvastro (Alexander-Krankheit) hervor; Pipeline liefert weiter zahlreiche klinische Ereignisse.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Tryngolza-Launch: Early‑market‑Momentum, Priorisierung hoher AP‑(Akute Pankreatitis)-Risiko‑Patienten, flexible Dosierung (50/80 mg) und aktives Payer‑Engagement.
- Neurology-Portfolio: Zanvastro zugelassen; Angelman Phase‑III eingeschrieben; weiteres CNS‑Readout‑Set für 2026 erwartet.
- Next‑gen & Schutz: ION775 (follow‑on, länger wirksam, siRNA/ASO‑Chemie) in Phase II, Ziel: jährliche Dosierung und schneller Phase‑III‑Start.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Aktuell: Tryngolza-Labelexpansion und Launch‑Early‑Metrics (Juli/August) positiv; Zanvastro-Approval kürzlich; drittes erwartetes FDA‑OK mit GSK für chronisches HBV im Oktober.
- Pipeline‑Updates: Angelman Phase‑III vollständig eingeschrieben; ION775 Phase‑II begonnen; CARDIO‑TTRansform und Pelacarsen negative Resultate, Auswertung laufend.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Launch‑Risiken: Wie zuverlässig sind Drittanbieter‑Script‑Daten? Management warnt vor verzerrten Messgrößen und verweist auf Q3‑Color.
- Sicherheit: Leberfett (hepatic fat) wurde angesprochen; Management stuft Anstieg als gering, on‑target und mit längerem Treatment reversibel ein.
- Wettbewerb & Strategie: Konkurrenzprodukt erwartet ~1 Jahr später; Ionis setzt auf First‑mover, Payer‑Verträge und Patientenpriorisierung; ION775 soll Markt langfristig verteidigen.
- Fehlschläge: CARDIO‑TTRansform: kein Zusatznutzen gegenüber Tafamidis in kombinierten Patienten, aber monotherapy‑Subgruppe zeigt ~30% Risikoreduktion; weitere Entscheidungen bis Jahresende erwartet.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Kurzfristig stützt der Tryngolza‑Launch das Umsatzprofil und bietet erhebliches Upside‑Potenzial; Zanvastro stärkt Ionis' Position in der Neurologie. Langfristiger Wert hängt von Phase‑II/III‑Fortschritten (ION775, Angelman) und dem Umgang mit TTR-/Lp(a)‑Rückschlägen ab. Wichtige Near‑term‑Katalysatoren: Q3‑Update, erwartete HBV‑Zulassung im Oktober und weitere klinische Readouts.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Wells Fargo 21st Annual Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Okay. Thanks, everyone, for being here. My name is Yanan Zhu. I'm one of the biotech analysts here at Wells Fargo. It is my great pleasure to be joined by Brett Monia, CEO of Ionis Pharmaceuticals. Thank you, Brett, for being here.
Thank you, Yanan, and good morning, everybody. It's great to be here.
I was wondering if you can start us off with the overview of the company, and then we can jump into questions.
Sure. Happy to. I'll be brief, though, because I know you have a lot of questions, Yanan, and we want to get to those. But as expected, this has been a highly eventful year for Ionis. We've had several really important positive strategic outcomes this year. And we've also had some disappointments, not surprising when you're consistently seeking to deliver breakthrough treatments in therapeutic areas -- new therapeutic areas, sometimes you have disappointments.
But I really do want to emphasize the incredible success we've had this year already. We've had 2 FDA approvals, both in areas where there is high unmet need, and we're first.
Tryngolza for severe hypertriglyceridemia, Zanvastro for Alexander disease, both wholly owned products. And we're anticipating a third FDA approval by our partner, GSK, later this year in chronic HBV. Again, another breakthrough, producing unprecedented clinical functional cure rates in patients with chronic HBV.
We've had 3 Phase III readouts this year, and we are on track for 2 more. And the pipeline, in addition, continues to deliver and go very well. We initiated a Phase III study for ION-775 in severe hypertriglyceridemia that supports twice or once a year dosing. As a follow-on to Tryngolza, we started a Phase II study in Dravet syndrome using a very important new chemistry that we've created that supports potentially once per year dosing, twice a year or once a year dosing. And I can go on, but maybe we should just open up for questions, but it truly has been a strategically successful year so far.
Right, right. It's been a very eventful year for sure. I actually wanted to start with Angelman syndrome, one that you didn't have any update, but I think a lateral update from Ultragenyx programs has caused some investors to react I don't know if you can touch on when you saw that result, were you surprised? And anything that you think investors should not read through to your program?
Yes. So sad for the Angelman's community, we really feel for them. This is a community that has been in desperate need for a treatment. They've been disappointed many times with unsuccessful clinical readouts. With that said, we see 0 read-through to our program.
Prior to the readout from the program that you just referred to, we've been signaling to the investor community and to anybody that listened to us for well over a year that although we are hopeful that the study would show signs of success, we are very -- not very optimistic that it would be successful for several reasons.
But most notably, Yanan, is the fact that despite the fact that their molecule and our molecule are using similar mechanisms of action, a mechanism of action that we actually pioneered and published on for the first time, and they have similar potencies based on a whole host of data that we've generated, they were dosing substantially lower than us. And that's because that they ran into toxicity issues in the clinic and preclinically that forced them to be capped, their dose to be capped. Substantially lower dose, and we were concerned that they were under dosing. We do believe that, that was the culprit in their study at the end of the day.
Our program, of course, rides the heels of a proven platform in CNS diseases. Let's not forget that Ionis is the only company that has delivered oligonucleotide successes that have been FDA approvals in the clinic to date, proven platform that has delivered SPINRAZA, Zanvastro, now, QALSODY and proof of concept even in Alzheimer's disease with our tau program.
So we're dosing at the maximum dose that we think -- at the maximum dose we set out to dose at. And we think that we've maxed out -- we will max out on efficacy when our study reads out next year. We have fully enrolled this year, the study, and we're looking forward to data in the second half of next year.
Got it. Got it. That's very, very helpful. Let's touch on Lp(a). So this is a very surprising result. It's a very -- it's a good target with a lot of backing from human genetics. When this data readout from Novartis, your partner, can you share your thoughts on what might be the cause for the study to not turn up a positive result? And what does this mean for the program and perhaps also for the Lp(a) field?
Yes. So this is another first for an Ionis-discovered medicine to test the Lp(a) hypothesis, if you will. That is to address an independent risk factor that's been strongly associated with cardiovascular disease. High levels of Lp(a) are strongly associated with cardiovascular disease. So we set out to determine whether or not it could be modifiable with a pharmacological intervention, pelacarsen, by lowering pelacarsen to normal levels. And that's what we did in the study.
We got substantial lowering of Lp(a) that were similar to what we reported in our Phase II study on the order of 75% to 80% reductions in Lp(a). We saw good safety in the study, and those reductions in Lp(a) really normalize a lot of patients. Unfortunately, it didn't result in a successful outcome on MACE, a 4-point MACE endpoint. And the study was -- did not achieve statistical significance in the primary endpoint. It also didn't achieve demonstrate benefit in the subgroup of patients that were at higher risk in the study.
So it's unfortunate that the drug did what it was supposed to do with respect to lowering Lp(a) with good safety, but it may implicate Lp(a) as an independent risk factor, but one that may be unmodifiable, at least in this patient population that all other risk factors are well controlled, LDL, hypertension are very well controlled.
And as a secondary prevention, maybe it's just not modifiable. We'll see. We don't see a path forward for pelacarsen. Novartis is going to be presenting the full Phase III data at a medical congress as soon as they can, so maybe later this year. So stay tuned for that. But unfortunately, we don't see a path forward for pelacarsen.
Got it. Yes. Thanks for those thoughts. Let's touch on another recent development, CARDIO-TTRansform. So I know you and I'm sure everyone in the field has hoped for the combination to produce even greater efficacy than silencer or stabilizer alone. However, the result did not point that way. So could you help us understand the results in the combo part of the study and also help us understand what the path or the next steps for the program?
Yes. So I really want to highlight that we had 3 presentations related to eplontersen and ATTR cardiomyopathy, ESC last week, all high-quality presentations in large forums at the meeting. The overall study outcome and then the subgroup -- focus on the subgroup in combination with tafamidis, if you will, or stabilizers.
The study did not hit its primary endpoint in the overall -- the composite of cardiovascular mortality and events, serious CV events in the overall population. However, in patients that were not on stabilizer at baseline, we call this the monotherapy group, we saw a remarkable efficacy. We saw efficacy that's similar to the only other silencer that's on the market today with respect to a risk reduction of nearly 30% risk reduction.
We saw TTR reductions that were as good as anything that's been out there today, around 80% TTR reductions, all good safety in the Phase III study. So the monotherapy worked very well. But unfortunately, there was no added benefit in combination with stabilizers. We had more than 50% of patients on stabilizer at baseline. And then that -- the involvement of tafamidis or stabilizer in the study grew as the study continued with lots of drop-ins as tafamidis became the standard of care, not only in the United States, but in Europe and elsewhere. That would have been fine had there been added benefit on top of the stabilizer. But unfortunately, there was none.
That was not only the conclusion of Ionis at AstraZeneca, that was the conclusion of an independent academic group that presented a meta-analysis at ESC last week when they said there's no added benefit in any studies conducted to date in combination of a silencer with a stabilizer, including this one and other ones that have come out.
Recently, that is one reason that the study didn't hit its primary endpoint. The second reason is that tafamidis actually performed pretty well in the study. Remember, patients are being diagnosed much earlier in disease today, unlike the Phase III study for tafamidis and ATTR-ACT 10 years ago, where patients were being diagnosed with late-stage disease and it was difficult to impact their disease course.
Patients are being diagnosed much earlier today. The stabilizers actually performed very well as monotherapy. And we just couldn't add to the benefit that tafamidis was achieving in our study, but the study was executed very well. The monotherapy group performed exceptionally well. And AstraZeneca is weighing their options. They haven't made any definitive decisions.
We're helping them, of course, in any preparations and discussions with path forward. But I would hold off and wait to hear from AstraZeneca later this year on whether there is a path forward as a monotherapy for eplontersen in ATTR cardiomyopathy. I do want to say that in polyneuropathy, the launch continues and the drug is very effective and patient uptake continues to be relatively strong. And it's a good drug. Unfortunately, the study design caused it not to be successful in the overall population.
Great. Great. So I was wondering, of course, it's all pending the decision-making by your partner and you on the path forward. I was wondering in that process, could you walk us through the justifications perhaps arguing for next steps for the monotherapy? And also perhaps in the -- if that path works, what is the use set and use case for monotherapy?
It's a great question. My personal opinion, I think there's significant justification to bring eplontersen to ATTR cardiomyopathy patients because patients deserve options. Today, there's 2 stabilizers and there's 1 silencer. Patients deserve other options and eplontersen offers -- it differentiates from the other silencer that's on the market in several ways. Most notably, they can be administered by the patient themselves, doesn't have to -- self-administration using a simple auto-injector doesn't rely on the administration by a health care provider.
We think that that's important for patients as a choice. But the bar is high. I mean, let's not fool ourselves here. FDA generally does not accept submissions with failed primary endpoints in studies. But you're asking in my opinion, I think patients deserve choices.
I see no reason why silencer cannot be used as first-line treatment. It's the combination that we and experts that were -- it was highlighted at ESC last week, there's probably no path forward for combination usage of a stabilizer and a silencer. Let's not lose sight of the fact that we're targeting the same pathway with a silencer and a stabilizer, right? We're targeting TTR, whether we stabilize it or we knock it down, we silence it. We maxed out.
But I see silencers as they can be used as frontline therapy, absolutely. The risk reduction was as good as stabilizer, just there was no added benefit on top or you can use a stabilizer as frontline and some physicians, it's going to be on patient preference or do they want an injection once every month or a few months or do they want to take a pill a couple of times a day. It's really going to come down to preference, I think, but there's no reason why it can't be used as frontline or second-line treatment.
I also want to add, Yanan, that this is a big market, and there is room for multiple players, first line, second line. And we don't really know what the ceiling is for ATTR cardiomyopathy. It's a big market opportunity.
Great. Great. Let's talk about Tryngolza in severe hypertriglyceridemia. You have a launch going on. This is the first quarter for this indication, only started a couple of months ago. But I hope you -- could you -- I'm wondering if you could share with us what have you been seeing regarding the launch momentum. I guess some focus could be patient demand, which patient population are being prescribed the drug currently? Any insurance hurdles? And any pushback on the liver fat finding...
Yes. Sure. As I mentioned in my opening comments, we've had several very important strategic successes at Ionis this year. The FDA approval of Tryngolza for severe hypertriglyceridemia was an enormous breakthrough in this massive patient population.
In the U.S., 3 million people plus are being treated with sHTG or have sHTG, many of whom are being treated, but the treatments are inadequate. They're fibrates or fish oils or statins, which barely lower triglycerides at all, unlike Tryngolza, which shows 70%, 80% reductions in triglycerides on top of those medicines and the FDA approval included a reduction, highly statistically significant and really powerful reduction in acute pancreatitis events, the outcome that is most significant for people with severe hypertriglyceridemia in the indication statement, even though AP, acute pancreatitis, was a secondary endpoint. And the approval was 6 days early.
So we are very pleased with this breakthrough treatment, wholly owned medicine that we launched within a few days after the approval. We're pleased with the momentum of the launch to date in the U.S. We received -- we put -- we had drug in channel within a day. We had scripts received the day of approval, and the momentum is good. We're seeing lots of -- we're seeing prescriptions coming from cardiologists, endocrinologists, lipid specialists. And not surprisingly, as we expected, they are prioritizing those patients with the highest risk.
Let me remind everybody that the label is for -- is the definition of sHTG. It's for people with severe hypertriglyceridemia as an adjunctive diet and exercise, which is defined as triglycerides 500 milligrams per deciliter and above with -- as a treatment to reduce risk of acute pancreatitis. That's the label.
But as we expected, physicians are prioritizing those patients with -- that are at the highest risk to come into Tryngolza. Those are patients with a history of acute pancreatitis. Those are patients with triglycerides that are so high, 880 or above that they're at very high risk of acute pancreatitis, whether or not they've had an event or not in the past. And that's what we're seeing come in primarily from the physicians.
Payer discussions are going quite well. We're very pleased. We did a lot of payer research prior to setting price, as we went from a rare indication, FCS to a prevalent indication, sHTG. And we've had many productive discussions with payers since then as well. And we're pleased that payers are not pushing back on covering to label, not just the high-risk patients or anything like that, it's pay to label 500 milligrams per deciliter and above.
But with that said, physicians, rightfully so, are prioritizing those high-risk patients. And we're expecting a steady launch, physicians need to be educated on the label. They need to be educated on the dose options that we have approved. They -- some of them like to bring their patient in to do a triglyceride measurement prior to prescribing or getting their patient on drug and then just the normal operations that are -- happen in a launch in a highly prevalent disease with very busy doctors. But we're pleased with the enthusiasm, the sentiment, the need that we're hearing for Tryngolza for sHTG. And we're pleased with the momentum that we've built so far.
Great. Definitely looking forward to a quarterly update for continued momentum on that launch. I was wondering how reliable are the third-party vendors that capture prescriptions. This is a specialty pharmacy situation. So it's not always reliable, but we see some increases in scripts through those third-party channels. Can we use that kind of to triangulate and trying to predict sales?
No. We advise against it. We've been advising against it because we believe that the Symphony, IQVIA data is inaccurate, and we would recommend against that. We block our data. We have several different specialty pharmacies, not just one, so several. And the data is unreliable. So we've been advising against using that data. But I want to emphasize that we're pleased with the momentum that we've created for the launch to date.
I see. You do have a full year guidance for the Tryngolza sales for the full year. Are you comfortable with the guidance?
We're very pleased -- like I said, we're very pleased with the launch. I could just only reiterate what I just said is that the launch has gone according to plan. We're on track. We're seeing tremendous enthusiasm for Tryngolza. We do have a quick start program. I want to emphasize that we are getting patients on drug quickly.
We also have patient support programs for Tryngolza to make sure patients understand how to administer Tryngolza and they understand the disease and what to expect. And we're also emphasizing the need for physicians to get those triglycerides measured fairly quickly after they go on to -- patients on to Tryngolza because what they're going to see and what they are seeing is substantial reductions in triglycerides on the order of even better in many cases than what we saw in our Phase III study with no AP events.
So we're pleased about that. And we're also confident in our peak product sales in the U.S. of $3 billion plus based on everything we're seeing in the launch and the label to date. So we're feeling very good about the launch.
Great. Great. On the competitive front, Arrowhead reported their SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 pivotal data at ESC. I was wondering how do you view that product's profile? And how do you think this -- that pending launch could impact your outlook for Tryngolza?
The Phase III data that was presented at ESC was -- there were no surprises at Ionis. It was as expected. We see a profile that's very similar to Tryngolza. I do want to caution folks that to compare apples-to-apples, their primary endpoint was triglycerides at 12, reductions at 12 months compared to baseline. Ours was triglyceride reductions at 6 months, placebo adjusted.
If you look at our median data at 12 months, it's basically the same as theirs. If you look at their triglycerides, placebo adjusted ours actually looks better because they had a significant -- very significant placebo effect in their study. Our acute pancreatitis data is highly competitive, a little bit better, but it's the profiles look very similar.
Our safety is clean. We have no monitoring in our study, although there's been some confusion about that. We have a very clean label. You asked about hepatic fat before, Yanan, and I didn't answer that last part of the question.
We are 100% convinced that this is a nontarget effect, where we see a small increase in hepatic fat by lowering the target APOCIII in the study. We evaluated 250 patients or so by MRI, looking at changes in hepatic fat. We saw a small increase, particularly at the high dose, not statistically significant at the 50-milligram lower dose. And with continued dosing, as we've presented several times now, continued dosing, we see a return to baseline of hepatic fat with no clinical sequelae, no issues, no concerns by the HCP community.
They saw it in their study, too. They only evaluated 30 or a few dozen patients. So it's obviously not statistically significant, wasn't powered. But you can see numerically an increase in hepatic fat. It's an on-target effect. And -- but most importantly, it's of no consequence in the eyes of HCPs, never was.
Tryngolza has a very clean profile. We're first to market, and we're taking advantage of that. And as I said, the launch is going well. We're first to market by a year or so. And we also have the advantage of offering 2 dose levels, 50 milligrams, which was highly competitive and then the 80-milligram dose, which is even more competitive. And we're seeing prescriptions coming in at 80. We're seeing prescriptions coming in at 50. And that's definitely resonating very well with the cardiology community to be able to be able to look at 2 different dose levels and see how patients do at 50 and then before bumping it up to 80 milligrams or they just start at 80 milligrams and patients are doing very well.
Great. Thanks for those color. I was also wondering about your siRNA program for sHTG. You presented data at ESC, and you also had publication. So wondering help us review that data? How does that data compare with Tryngolza, with Redemplo, for example? And how does that come into your overall sHTG strategy?
Yes. So we're now -- after investing in expanding our technological base, the chemistries and other know-how, delivery methods, new methods for delivering ASOs, siRNAs to target organs, we invested in 5, 6 years ago are now starting to reach the clinic. Our first SI, Ionis discovered SIs using Ionis know-how and chemistries are now reaching the clinic.
In the liver, SIs are more durable than standard ASOs or Ionis ASOs by a few months. And we've been able to use our know-how and chemistry to further increase that to 6, 9, 12 months once dosing in the clinic. We know this how to do this. We have selected ION-775 as a follow-on to Tryngolza. It's tough to beat the efficacy of Tryngolza. I mean that bar is very high, but maybe we can do it. Really, it's focused on convenience as a once or twice per year self-administered treatment for sHTG, just to protect the franchise that we created, the first -- we were first to market, and we want to protect that with -- by offering convenience advantages for patients if they want that.
Our Phase I data that we presented at ESC completely supports twice or once per year dosing with excellent safety and remarkable APOCIII reductions on the order of 90-plus percent was dose ranging. And triglyceride reductions that were -- just were truly remarkable.
Remember -- I shouldn't say remember, in our Phase I study, we evaluated patients with mildly elevated triglycerides. You can only lower the triglycerides so much when you're mildly elevated. We are basically normalizing all the patients. We expect even greater reductions in sHTG where the triglycerides start at a very high baseline values.
And in fact, we started our Phase II study in sHTG as an open-label study, so we're continuing to monitor triglycerides and APOCIII reductions and safety because we want to select dose and dose regimen frequency as quickly as possible to get Phase III started as quickly as possible as a follow-on to Tryngolza. We expect in 2027 towards the end of the year that we'll have all the data we need to make a decision on to go to Phase III. And if we really move quickly, maybe we'll get it started in 2027. So it's a priority.
Got it. Got it. Got it. So maybe 2 quick follow-up on that. The Phase II has studied both moderate and severe HTG maybe that's a standard procedure because you also did that for Tryngolza, but I was wondering, is there any inclination to go into moderate HTG because that's not an indication for.
No, there isn't. We designed the Phase II study to have enough sHTG patients in the study to answer all the questions we need to answer for our Phase III design. But we wanted more patients to ensure that we have all the safety in the study, but it can also contribute to our ultimate Phase III safety database to have as many patients in there as possible. It's just to move enrollment quickly.
The sHTG patients are harder to find in HTG patients. And by combining both, we'll get all the information we need in the study to select dose and dose regimen. We don't plan to go after mildly elevated triglyceride patient population, which is particularly at risk for cardiovascular disease, at least not for ION-775 at this point.
We don't think the prospects for success in a cardiovascular outcome trial are high enough. We're really focused on sHTG. This is a multibillion-dollar product opportunity, and we're first, and we want to continue to hammering away -- to continue to bring medicines forward for sHTG to ensure our continued leadership in this space.
Got it. Got it. I thought I heard you say the Phase III development for ION-775 could be hopefully this year, but -- or [next '27 ].
Maybe. Certainly, we're going to have all the information we need in 2027 to design our study. Getting a Phase III study started is not a trivial task. Operationally, it's the blocking and tackling to do that, but we'll have all the information we need for sure. That's why we designed it as an open-label study. So we're continuing to evaluate the data as we go forward.
The study is enrolling well, and we like what we see so far because it is open label. The Phase III design will probably look like our Phase III design for Tryngolza in many ways -- in most ways. With that said, if there are opportunities to trim time lines based on our experience with Tryngolza, we will do so.
We do believe that even though we have proven that lowering triglycerides through this mechanism will prevent acute pancreatitis largely from happening. We still think it's important to have that data in a label when you launch. So we're going to make sure that we also have -- do everything we can to have a label similar to Tryngolza, just more convenient once or twice a year.
Great. Yes. Yes. Great to see the first Ionis siRNA program approaching the later-stage development. Perhaps let's also touch on another commercial product, DAWNZERA for HAE. This is a very competitive therapeutic area. So based on the launch that you have seen, are you incrementally more confident or less confident about your expectation for this program?
Yes, we're very confident. We're confident in our peak product sales in the U.S. of $500 million plus. We're very -- based that based on our label, based on what we're seeing in the launch, the enthusiasm for DAWNZERA. We're seeing new patients -- newly diagnosed patients going on to DAWNZERA. We're seeing patients that were previously on on-demand treatment, try their prophylactic for the first time and DAWNZERA being one of them.
But most of the patients are coming from switches, primarily TAKHZYRO, which is the market leader in the U.S. But other -- really all prophies that are out there, we're seeing switches on today. It is a very competitive market. And there's a lot of players in this market, but we think we know DAWNZERA is doing well, and we think it will continue to do well.
What we're particularly pleased with is not only the switches we're seeing, but patients, once they get an experience with DAWNZERA, they're staying on treatment. It's very sticky. It's not true for all prophies. We're seeing switches, like I said, patients often want to switch because of lack of sufficient efficacy or poor tolerability.
DAWNZERA as a once per month or once every 2-month treatment has resonated well for convenience, simple auto-injector. And patients are -- once they get experience with DAWNZERA, they're staying on treatment.
Got it. Got it. In the remaining minute or 2, I was wondering, could you say a few words about the things that we haven't touched on, like the IgAN program, any catalyst and also the HBV program?
Yes. So bepirovirsen is now approved in Japan as a treatment for chronic HBV as Hibsago. And that approval was based not only on the lowering of HBV burden in people with chronic HBV, but the functional cure rate of treatment that is unprecedented, unprecedented cures in these patients. It's launched -- it's going to be launched in Japan next month, and we're expecting approval in the U.S. in October of this year, and that represents the third approval for Ionis this year, FDA approval, for Ionis this year.
We're also expecting Phase III data for sefaxersen in IgA nephropathy, that's partnered with Roche this year. That's -- that data will be revealed, uncovered to support an accelerated approval path for sefaxersen in IgA nephropathy. That will be coming up in the second half of this year, and then Roche will be filing soon thereafter. So the pipeline is continuing to deliver.
I'll also highlight the fact that we initiated a Phase II study in Dravet syndrome earlier this year. We're excited about that. And we're excited about the rest of our CNS pipeline, which continues to deliver proof of concept and FDA approvals. So very exciting times.
Thanks. Thanks for all the color and very helpful framing and insights. Thanks, everyone for being here.
Thank you. Thanks Yanan.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Wells Fargo 21st Annual Healthcare Conference
Ionis meldet mehrere Zulassungen und einen starken Tryngolza-Launch, reagiert aber auf Misserfolge bei Lp(a) und gemischte CARDIO-TTRansform‑Daten.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: CEO betont operativen Erfolg: zwei zugelassene, eigenständige Produkte (Tryngolza, Zanvastro) plus baldige dritte Zulassung in HBV; Pipeline liefert multiple Phase‑III‑Readouts.
- Balance: Gleichzeitig klare Rückschläge: Novartis' Lp(a)-Outcome negativ und kein klarer Nutzen der Kombinationstherapie in ATTR‑Kardiomyopathie.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Tryngolza‑Launch: Erste Markteinführung für schwere Hypertriglyceridämie (sHTG); frühe Verschreibungen bei Hochrisiko‑Patienten, Payer zahlen laut Management laut Label.
- ION‑775 (siRNA): Folgeprogramm als einmal/zweimal jährliche Option in Entwicklung; Phase‑I zeigt >90% APOCIII‑Senkung, Phase‑II läuft, Entscheidung für Phase‑III 2027 geplant.
- ATTR / Eplontersen: Monotherapie zeigte ~30% Risikoreduktion und ~80% TTR‑Senkung; Kombination mit Stabilizern (tafamidis) brachte keinen Zusatznutzen; AstraZeneca prüft Weg nach vorn.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- HBV: Bepirovirsen (Hibsago) in Japan zugelassen; US‑Zulassung wird für Oktober erwartet — stellt eine weitere wichtige klinische Erfolgsgeschichte dar.
- Lp(a): Pelacarsen senkte Lp(a) ~75–80% aber verfehlte primären 4‑Punkte‑MACE‑Endpoint; Ionis sieht aktuell keinen Entwicklungsweg für dieses Programm.
- Hepatischer Fettanstieg: Bei Tryngolza/Apoc3‑Senken ein kleiner, dosisabhängiger, offenbar reversibler Anstieg ohne klinische Relevanz laut HCP‑Feedback.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Angelman‑Readthrough: Management erwartet keinen Read‑through von negativen Daten anderer Programme; betont höhere Dosis bei eigenem Kandidaten und geplantes Readout H2 nächsten Jahres.
- Konkurrenz Tryngolza: Arrowhead‑Daten ähnlich; Ionis sieht Vorteile bei AP‑Ereignissen, zwei Dosisstufen und früher Markteintritt als Wettbewerbsstärke.
- Launch‑Metriken: CEO warnt, dass externe Script‑Daten (IQVIA/Symphony) unzuverlässig sind; internes Monitoring und Specialty‑Pharmacy‑Kanäle bevorzugt.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Für Investoren bleibt Ionis ein klinisch produktives Biotech mit mehreren kommerziellen Assets und einer klaren sHTG‑Franchise; kurzfristig ergeben sich Unsicherheiten durch das negative Lp(a)‑Outcome und das ungelöste ATTR‑Kombinationsproblem, langfristig stützen Zulassungen und Folgeprogramme die Werttreiber.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Special Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to Ionis conference call to discuss the FDA approval of ZANVASTRO for treatment of Alexander disease. As a reminder, this call is being recorded.
At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Wade Walke, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, to lead the call. Please begin.
Thank you, Joel, and thank you to everyone joining us today as we discuss ZANVASTRO, which is now the first and only FDA-approved disease-modifying therapy for the treatment of Alexander's disease. Please be sure to visit the Investors section of the Ionis website to see the press release Ionis has issued earlier today, along with the slides accompanying today's webcast.
Before we begin, I would like to remind you that our discussion today will contain forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations and beliefs. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially. I encourage you to consult the risk factors contained in our SEC filings for additional detail.
With me on the call today are Brett Monia, Chief Executive Officer; Holly Kordasiewicz, Chief Development Officer; and Kyle Jenne, Chief Global Product Strategy Officer. Our agenda today will be as follows: Brett will provide opening remarks, Holly will provide a brief review of the unmet need associated with Alexander disease as well as the data that support the approval and label of ZANVASTRO and Kyle will review our launch strategy for ZANVASTRO, which represents Ionis' first independent commercial launch in neurology. After Brett's brief conclusion, we will open the call for your questions.
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Brett.
Thanks, Wade. Good morning, and thanks, everybody, for joining us on today's call. Today is a landmark day for people with Alexander disease and Ionis as the FDA has approved ZANVASTRO, the first and only disease-modifying treatment for this ultra-rare progressive and often fatal neurological disorder. The FDA approved ZANVASTRO with a broad label, enabling treatment of both children and adults with Alexander disease. And with today's approval coming nearly 3 weeks early, we are positioned to bring ZANVASTRO to patients even sooner than anticipated.
ZANVASTRO was approved based on positive data from our pivotal study in children and adults with Alexander disease. The study achieved a statistically significant and clinically meaningful benefit on the primary endpoint measuring motor function. Additionally, trends favoring ZANVASTRO across key symptom domains were also observed along with a favorable safety and tolerability profile. For Ionis, this approval builds on our long history of discovering and developing first-in-class treatments for rare neurological diseases such as SPINRAZA, first therapy ever approved to treat SMA, and QALSODY, the only disease-modifying treatment approved for a genetic form of ALS.
ZANVASTRO builds on our legacy of innovation and reinforces the transformational power of our technology. And as the first independent launch from our industry-leading neurology pipeline that today includes 8 wholly owned medicines addressing similarly challenging diseases like Dravet syndrome, prion disease and Angelman syndrome, ZANVASTRO provides a strong foundation to support these potential future launches. Furthermore, as Ionis' third wholly owned commercial medicine, ZANVASTRO joins TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA in demonstrating our ability to successfully capitalize on the opportunities from our rich and growing pipeline.
We were pleased to receive a priority review voucher from the FDA in connection with ZANVASTRO's approval. This voucher provides an opportunity to accelerate the FDA review of a future Ionis medicine and potentially accelerate our ability to bring it to patients sooner. In addition to launching in the U.S., we are also expanding access to ZANVASTRO to people with Alexander disease outside the U.S. through our commercial partner, Recordati, which remains on track to file for approval in the EU and Japan next year with additional submissions to follow.
Before I turn the call over to Holly, I want to extend my sincere thanks to the Alexander disease community, including the patients, families, investigators, advocacy organizations and research partners who help make this approval possible. I also want to recognize the Ionis team for their innovation, dedication to patients and commitment in bringing this important medicine forward.
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Holly.
Thank you, Brett. Before I begin, I would also like to thank the Alexander disease community for their partnership and support that made the approval of ZANVASTRO possible. It is a powerful determined community, and it has been a privilege to work with them. Alexander disease is an ultra-rare progressive and severe neurological disease caused by pathogenic variants in the GFAP gene. Because it affects the brain's white matter, Alexander disease can involve multiple regions of the brain and present with complex symptomology. While symptoms often present first in infancy or childhood, onset can occur at any age with most patients experiencing progressive motor and cognitive dysfunction, loss of mobility and independence and difficulty controlling the muscles needed for swallowing, airway protection and purposeful movement. And sadly, it is almost always fatal.
Alexander disease is estimated to affect approximately 1 in 1 million to 3 million people worldwide. And until today, in the absence of any approved disease-modifying treatments, care for people with Alexander disease has largely focused on symptom management and support as the disease progresses. Given the small size of this population and the urgent need for treatment and with the support of the FDA and Alexander disease community, we took an innovative approach in designing our ZANVASTRO registrational trial. We combined first-in-human dose-finding and pivotal studies into one controlled integrated trial protocol, which provided the results that supported today's approval.
The ZANVASTRO trial enrolled 54 people ages 2 to 53, the majority of whom were under the age of 18 at enrollment, reflecting the real-world Alexander disease population. The primary objective of the study was to evaluate ZANVASTRO's impact on stabilization of gross motor function in children and adults with Alexander disease. The primary endpoint in the study measured stabilization of gait speed in participants aged 5 and up using the 10-meter walk test, a commonly used measure of gross motor function in neurological diseases. The study also measured gross motor function in younger participants as well as a number of secondary and exploratory endpoints aimed at capturing the constellation of Alexander disease symptoms.
The approved dose of ZANVASTRO is 50 milligrams and is administered quarterly by intrathecal injection, the same well-established route of administration as our other approved neurology medicines. We initially tested a lower 25-milligram quarterly intrathecal dose in a small cohort of patients, which enabled us to establish ZANVASTRO's safety and pharmacokinetic profile. Once complete, we tested the approved ZANVASTRO 50-milligram dose in a larger cohort of patients, which represented the pivotal portion of the trial.
The study met its primary endpoint, showing a statistically significant and clinically meaningful stabilization of gait on the 10-meter walk test in participants treated with ZANVASTRO 50 milligrams. This was a very exciting outcome as it represented the first time a medicine demonstrated disease-modifying benefit in this patient population.
Secondary and exploratory endpoints also consistently favored ZANVASTRO. In participants aged 2 to 4, ZANVASTRO improved gross motor function compared with control on the Gross Motor Function Measure 88 or GMFM-88, a well-established measure appropriate for this age group. ZANVASTRO also substantially reduced plasma GFAP compared with control, providing evidence that ZANVASTRO engaged the intended target and is modulating the underlying mechanism of Alexander disease in ZANVASTRO-treated patients.
ZANVASTRO also demonstrated a favorable safety and tolerability profile in the trial. Most adverse reactions observed in the trial were mild to moderate in severity and serious adverse reactions occurred less frequently with ZANVASTRO compared to control. These efficacy and safety results supported a broad label for children and adults, reflecting the real-world Alexander disease population. And importantly, we believe ZANVASTRO is well positioned to become an important new treatment option and the standard of care for people living with Alexander disease.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Kyle.
Thank you, Holly. We are thrilled to bring ZANVASTRO, the first disease-modifying treatment for Alexander disease to people in the U.S. who are living with this ultra-rare progressive neurological disorder. This represents an important new medicine for a community with significant unmet need. We are launching ZANVASTRO with a broad label, enabling children and adults diagnosed with Alexander disease to access treatment. And we are working quickly to get product into the channel so we can bring this important treatment to patients in need shortly.
With our customer-facing team already in the field, we are ready to launch ZANVASTRO. Although exact prevalence is not well understood, we estimate that approximately 300 people in the U.S. are living with Alexander disease, approximately half of whom have been identified through medical claims. And among the patients who are currently -- who currently receive supportive treatment for their disease, many do so at one of the approximately 12 leukodystrophy centers of excellence in the U.S. At launch, our team will focus on these centers to ensure identified patients can gain access to ZANVASTRO if appropriate. In parallel, we will work to reach treaters in neurology centers outside this concentrated network in an effort to identify new patients who may benefit from ZANVASTRO. We will do this strategically, leveraging omnichannel resources as needed to extend our team's reach.
We have 4 initial launch priorities. First, the team will work to transition patients currently receiving ZANVASTRO in the clinical study and expanded access program to commercial drug, while ensuring continuity of care for these patients throughout the process. Second, we will work to get patients who have already been diagnosed with Alexander disease and identified through ICD-10 codes and patient registries on treatment. Third, we will work to raise disease awareness among physicians who care for people with this rare neurological disease to drive new patient identification. Finally, we will work with payers to ensure coverage and access for ZANVASTRO.
We have also tailored our Ionis Every Step patient and HCP support program to meet the unique needs of the Alexander community. For health care providers and site staff, we have adapted our access and reimbursement support services, specifically for ZANVASTRO, which is intrathecally administered, dosed quarterly and will be reimbursed mostly under the patient's medical benefit. And for patients and families, they will have access to a comprehensive suite of education and reimbursement support services designed to help patients start and stay on treatment.
Reflecting the value of ZANVASTRO can bring to the ultra-rare Alexander disease community, we are launching with a price of $285,000 per dose. We have financial assistance and reimbursement support programs in place to help eligible patients access treatment. Out-of-pocket costs for commercially insured patients may be reduced to as little as $0 per prescription. With our focused commercial approach, and experienced customer-facing team and a high-touch patient services model, we are positioned to support timely access to ZANVASTRO for people living with Alexander disease.
More broadly, the ZANVASTRO launch represents an important step in Ionis' continued growth, expanding our commercial capabilities, establishing a foundation for future independent neurology launches and advancing our goal of delivering a steady cadence of new transformational medicines for people in need.
And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Brett.
Thanks, Kyle. Today's approval is an important milestone for the Alexander disease community and for Ionis. Over the years, we've had the privilege to hear directly from many families impacted by this disease. And today, we want to again extend our heartfelt gratitude for their insight, support and partnership in making this monumental breakthrough possible.
For Ionis, with ZANVASTRO now approved, we are expanding our commercial portfolio and laying a solid foundation for our future neurology launches. We are laser-focused on delivering launch success for ZANVASTRO and across our entire commercial portfolio, thereby driving accelerating value for patients, shareholders and all Ionis stakeholders.
And with that, we'll open the call up for questions. Given the importance of today's news, we'll keep the Q&A session focused entirely on ZANVASTRO or if you want, questions applying to our wholly owned neurology pipeline as they relate to ZANVASTRO. Operator?
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Yaron Werber with TD Cowen.
2. Question Answer
This is Steven Ionov on for Yaron. And congratulations again, management on the approval. One question from us. Of the roughly 150 identified U.S. patients, of which 54 were enrolled in the study? And how many more are in the OLE or expanded access program and potentially positioned for near-term conversion? And how quickly do you expect that conversion to happen?
Let me start with the numbers, and I'll let Kyle comment on the time it will take for the conversion. So we're not providing specific numbers on the expanded access program or how many patients are continuing to be in the OLE at this time. As Kyle mentioned, they are one of the key areas of focus to convert patients over to commercial as quickly as possible. I can say that -- and Holly, please add anything you want to this, the enthusiasm and the number of patients that rolled over into the open-label extension in the Phase III study was very robust. Do you want to jump in really quick?
No, that's exactly it. So the majority of patients have rolled over the OLE and all have continued.
And they all have continued. And the EAP has gone quite well. We're really, really pleased with how enthusiastic and how efficient it's been to bring in a good number of patients in the expanded access program. Kyle, what do you think about converting these over to commercial product?
Yes. Just in terms of timing, the back half of this year, it's going to take us a little bit of time, right? These are quarterly dosed patients, number one. Number two, we don't expect a bolus here at the beginning. There are some logistical as well as reimbursement dynamics that the institutions will have to navigate through. So that's the second piece to this.
And then the other part is some of these patients that have been diagnosed might end up being referred back to local centers where they reside. So there are some dynamics there in terms of making sure that they can find and identify a treater within their local community that can get on to therapy. But we will work as quickly as we can. Product will be in channel as quickly as we can get that in. And we obviously will be supporting all of the patients that are on drug today to make sure that there's no disruption in treatment.
And I'll just add one last thing, Steven. Our partner, Recordati, is working with us very closely and aggressively to open up an EAP in Europe as well. So stay tuned for that.
Your next question comes from Gary Nachman with Canaccord Genuity.
This is Denis Reznik on for Gary. Congrats on the approval. So while I recognize these are fully different therapeutic areas and different launch strategies, but maybe talk about some of the learnings you've gotten from the successful TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA launches that could be applied to this launch, particularly maybe with the Ionis Every Step program. And then maybe talk a little bit more about how conversations with the payers have progressed with regards to your WAC price and what the overall path to full reimbursement and access looks like?
Yes, I'm happy to touch on that. Let me -- I'll just first start. The execution on the launches that you referenced with TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA have really been very, very strong. So we've got all of our back-office capabilities and operational components that are in place, and the team has done a very, very good job of making sure that we can do things like get drug in channel quickly, make sure that, that drug can obviously get to patients when the prescriptions come in, et cetera. So we've learned a lot in terms of the operational dynamics of commercialization, and that's gone extremely well.
As it relates to the Ionis Every Step program, that is really one of the differentiators and one of the things that we really take to heart here at Ionis. We map what we describe as the patient journey for every single program that we have. And we think about from the very beginning of when a patient either needs to be diagnosed or is diagnosed all the way through to when that patient ends up going on to therapy and remaining on therapy, how can we support them along the way. And what's needed from a disease state standpoint, what's needed from a product education standpoint. Obviously, access and reimbursement is important and making sure that out-of-pocket expenses and things can be managed appropriately.
But those are the types of ways that we design our patient services program, Ionis Every Step. And we've done exactly that with ZANVASTRO. And I think that's a really important piece here for us is this is going to be the first time that we're moving into a buy-and-bill model. We understand the distribution. We understand the needs from the payer standpoint. We understand the institutions and also the patient community in terms of what they're going to need in order to have support from an access and reimbursement standpoint. So that's a very strong focus for us.
As it relates to working with the payers, we took a very similar approach that we've taken with our previous programs. We go out and we speak to the HCPs that are the treaters of this disease, how do they -- how are they going to use the product and what do they need in terms of reimbursement and support. And then we go to the payers, and we have conversations about the prevalence of the disease, which, as we've talked about, is an ultra-rare condition here. And we also look at other analogs within similar disease areas as well as outside of those disease areas to make sure that we can parallel that and that we ultimately end up with a price that is in alignment with what the value recognizes for the therapy.
And so we're very pleased with the conversations we've had with payers early on. We believe this is going to be a medical exception process. The institutions are very familiar with the way that they go through that process and how they manage this. And obviously, we have the resources and capabilities to help support the institutions in that process moving forward.
Your next question comes from Salveen Richter with Goldman Sachs.
Could you speak to the overlap, the centers of excellence that you're targeting have with Angelman treaters and how you can use this launch to establish referral networks for pediatric neurology more broadly?
Yes. So there is some overlap. The focus here are going to be in the leukodystrophy centers, which there will be a little distinction there. But beyond the leukodystrophy centers, we're also going to be focused on about 25 of the key neurological centers that are out there. And in those neurology centers, that's where we see some of the overlap between what we're working on here and then the program with Angelman.
I'll also mention we have our medical affairs team that has been out working in the neurology space for several years now. A very strong team, well educated. They know the key opinion leaders in the Alexander disease space as well as in the Angelman space. And they're appropriately going out and educating on the disease and supporting those HCPs and the science and the needs that they have in order to learn and understand how to diagnose and treat these patients.
And just to remind everybody, this disease also is a disease very similar like Angelman and that affects both children and adults. So about 2/3 are children, the other 1/3 are adults, similar to the Angelman population. So we've seen those neurologists and have a lot of those same challenges with converting from doctors from the pediatric neurologists to the more standard neurologists, and those are all communities that are talking and working together because it is a unique challenge for some of these diseases.
Your next question comes from Jason Gerberry with Bank of America.
This is Chi on for Jason. Congrats on the approval. I think I want to ask the pipeline related to ZANVASTRO question. So if you may, can you remind us what ASO backbone technology is ZANVASTRO based on? What other key neuro pipeline programs of yours use the same backbone technology and how today's approval changed your confidence of the delivery mechanism for the broader neuro pipeline, given perhaps renewed focus on this topic in light of recent competitive news?
So thank you for the question. So this is a mixed backbone gapmer oligonucleotide. So it's the same chemistry as diranersen, our tau program that is partnered with Biogen. Within our wholly owned pipeline, it's the same chemistry as our Angelman syndrome program as well as our Pelizaeus-Merzbacher disease and MECP2 duplication syndrome program, all in our pediatric neurology pipeline. So it's a chemistry that we're extremely familiar with. It's a similar chemistry that was used for QALSODY, between QALSODY and now in ZANVASTRO, we had improved our screening paradigm.
So ZANVASTRO is using the latest optimized screening techniques as similarly to our Angelman syndrome program. Like our Alexander program, our Angelman program is also quarterly dosed and at a similar dose range. ZANVASTRO was dosed at 50 milligrams and our Angelman syndrome program, which is in Phase III right now, is dosed at 80 milligrams.
So just to put a fine point on that. Thanks, Holly. It's a proven platform, Chi, chemistry is absolutely critical. And it goes beyond chemistry, however. We also have what I believe is by far the most rigorous approach to selection, screening and identification of optimized molecules to maximize potency and avoid off-target effects of oligonucleotides. That, coupled with the chemistry that Holly highlighted, is also very, very important to select safe and effective molecules. And that's what we do with ZANVASTRO, that's what we do with Angelman's and the other programs that are in our wholly owned pipeline that Holly just touched on.
Your next question comes from Mike Ulz with Morgan Stanley.
It's Avi Novick on the line for Mike. Congratulations on the approval. I guess, one, can you talk about feedback you've heard from KOLs and how enthusiastic are they about prescribing ZANVASTRO to their patients? And then second, can you also maybe speak to your efforts to identify the approximately 50% of patients who are not yet diagnosed?
Yes. So I can touch on the first point. So the community is overjoyed. The flooding of e-mails and notes that we have gotten is extremely strong. The KOLs, as soon as we saw the data have been encouraged and looking forward to this day today. And you can see that also in our EAP program where we have had significant demand from the patients as well as the KOLs to participate in that and to get their patients on drug. So the enthusiasm is absolutely there from the community and the KOLs.
Yes. And in terms of patient identification, we've already launched programs to do disease awareness, disease education through our medical affairs group. We will have a very strong presence on different channels through our omnichannel capabilities and our digital nonpersonal channels to be able to do even broader education. But it will obviously take time. It's not easily done. The other thing I'll mention is there are a lot of things related to AI that are happening now to help triangulate and potentially help accelerate identifying some of these patients.
So between the claims data, our tactics and resources to educate broadly through our marketing channels and then combined with some of the AI technologies, we're going to do everything we can to try to help this community and identify as many patients as we can.
Your next question comes from Jessica Fye with JPMorgan.
This is Silvia on for Jess Fye. Just one from me. How do you see the trajectory towards peak sales? Like has that number changed? And how would that launch might differ to other rare disease launch trajectories?
Yes. Yes, great question. Peak sales is estimated right now to be greater than $100 million for this program. We've maintained that number for quite some time. It's going to take a while to get to that peak sales number purely because of the patient identification and doing what I was describing earlier in terms of figuring out where these patients are and making sure that we can get them treated as quickly as possible. But we're still confident in the greater than $100 million, and we'll do everything we can to help as many patients as we can with this disease.
Your next question comes from Eric Joseph with Citi.
Let me add my congrats on the approval. Just coming back to the patient ID effort, can you talk about the role of that newborn screening might potentially have here and the extent to which that's well established for Alexander disease. And also from a resourcing standpoint, I would just be curious to know how you size the MSO and sales force here detailing to COEs and sort of local care centers.
So Alexander disease currently is not on the newborn screening panel. That is not something that's actively being done. The way this is typically diagnosed is the symptoms begin to onset, then it's diagnosed by MRI and then genetic confirmation of testing.
And maybe, Holly, you go into a little bit why -- what the challenges are about getting it on to newborn screening, which is formidable.
Yes. So the main challenge with this is you have to have an assay that can be done easily and simply and then you have to go to each individual jurisdiction to show the evidence that this can be done reproducibly and then to get approval to do this. And so it is a long arduous process. There's also the challenge that not every mutation in Alexander disease is -- they're not all fully penetrant. And so that adds an additional challenge with doing newborn screening.
Yes. Great question on the field force sizing. There are a couple of different teams that we have. Medical affairs, I'll mention first. That team has been in the field and deployed for quite some time. They're covering the major neurology centers across the U.S. because they do more than just Alexander disease as we were talking about earlier. They also cover the Angelman program and other pipeline programs that we have for neurology. And in addition to the 25 neurology centers, there are also obviously the 12 leukodystrophy centers specific to Alexander disease that's a part of that. So that's our medical affairs team.
We are modestly sized for our sales efforts. We know based on the number of institutions that we want to get to that we can rightsize for the number of people across the United States. It's a small team at this point because we're able to support that team with our omnichannel and digital capabilities to go out and educate more broadly around this disease with some of our marketing tactics. We also have our patient education managers, which are going to be a critical component to this. This is part of our Ionis Every Step program. These are individuals that will be able to work directly with the patients and caregivers of them to make sure that they understand the process and have disease resources, product education, reimbursement support, et cetera, associated with that.
So we've got all of the right teams and the right size to be able to accommodate for the known patients today that we were talking about, clinical trial, EAP and also the ability to help support those that are already identified and just not yet on treatment. So we are right sized and it's a very efficient organization.
Your next question comes from David Lebowitz with BMO Capital Markets.
I'm curious, at this stage in the game, where do you expect patients will get their intrathecal injections? And to what extent is the ability to provide such injections as we get further from the academic centers?
Yes. The fortunate thing here is we've had SPINRAZA for a long time, right? Obviously, Biogen is running that program, but we've been very close partners with them, and we understand exactly how they've orchestrated that model where the local communities are educated and set up with the capability to be able to do intrathecal administration. So we have mapped the United States. We've got a good sense of where those capabilities are today. I expect the majority of patients will fall into one of those centers that has a capability in existence currently. And if they don't, we'll be able to work effectively with them to get them set up and help them with that process.
Yes. And just to add to that, Kyle. David, it's a really good question because this, of course, is a chronic therapy, ZANVASTRO is. And over time, we do expect patients wanting to -- families wanting to move towards their more local community settings away from those centers of excellence and leukodystrophy centers of excellence. We will support them. That will happen over time. We recognize that. And that will be one of the challenges that lies ahead for us is to make sure that they are not losing access to the drug due to administration issues and those sorts of things, working with those local communities to ensure that they're fully capitalized to administer IT.
But it will evolve over time. Right now, it's primarily the centers of excellence and leukodystrophy centers, which are well equipped and well experienced. But like Kyle said, SPINRAZA and QALSODY and other medicines that we've developed over the years has really changed the landscape on the capabilities of IT administration across the country.
Your next question comes from Yale Jen with Laidlaw & Company.
On the approval. You mentioned earlier that you will use the buy-in health model. So would that be -- should that be the case given the price of the drug? Should the identifying the patient first will be the key things before the physicians will stock the drug to their centers for the subsequent treatment administration?
Yes. Great question on the logistics here and how this works. So this will be a medical benefit product, right? So it will go through the medical benefit side of the Medicare Part B, for example, or medical benefit under the commercial plans. It will be a buy-and-bill scenario where the institution will purchase the product and then seek reimbursement on the back end, very consistent with what they do with a lot of other therapies that they're currently using.
Medical exception will be the predominant payer coverage that we believe ZANVASTRO will be covered by. So it will be a patient-by-patient request for the therapy. They will submit the request based on the diagnosis consistent with the clinical trial. And then they wouldn't purchase product until that patient has been approved through their payer so that they know that reimbursement is going to be accepted. So that's part of the process and the steps that we'll work through. But it's not uncommon for the institutions to do this. We've done a lot of research and spoken with many of the institutions that will be treating these patients already. They know how to do it. It's more of a time component in the back and forth with the payers in order to get all of that -- those steps of the process completed.
Your next question comes from Myles Minter with William Blair.
First one is just on the 25 neurology specialty centers you're targeting. Do every single one of them already have prescribers with experience in using SPINRAZA and/or QALSODY? That's the first one.
And the second one is just on the safety profile, the vomiting, the back pain, the post-lumbar puncture syndrome. Is that different between pediatrics and adults considering you're approved in both populations?
So I can answer the safety question first. No, there aren't major differences between the profile in adults and kids. It's very similar.
Yes. And on the 25 centers, I don't know that all of them do have experience with SPINRAZA and QALSODY. Many of them do, because these are the key centers and where neurology is being practiced and where a lot of these patients are being identified. But regardless if they have the experience or they don't, we've actually mapped, as I mentioned, across the United States, capabilities in all of the major cities to figure out where we are going to be able to help these patients and get them treated.
That being said, depending upon where those institutions are referring patients back to or where patients might reside today, there could be some additional work for us to set up the capability and help them make sure that they're able to administer intrathecal administrations within the institution of the group in which they work with. But we've got the resources to help them and make sure that, that happens.
Yes. And I'll just add one other thing, Myles. Obviously, pediatric neurologists are the central physician population that manages SMA. And that will be similar for ZANVASTRO. So they're well experienced with SPINRAZA and certainly well aware of SPINRAZA because they're treating kids with these rare genetic diseases.
And maybe now we have time for one last question before closing out.
Our last question comes from Moritz Reiterer with Guggenheim Securities.
This is Moritz on for Debjit. Congrats on the approval again. Could you just reiterate your plans for the priority review voucher? Are you planning on using that internally for an Ionis program? Or are you considering selling it?
Thanks, Moritz. To be determined. But right now, our focus is on our wholly owned pipeline. We have 8 medicines now in clinical development that are wholly owned in neurology that would certainly could potentially benefit from the usage of our PRV. That's the priority now. And that pipeline is going to grow. We're expecting additional neurology medicines to enter the clinic in the near future. So no commitment one way or the other right now, but certainly, we see a lot of potential to utilize our PRV for our rich and growing wholly owned neurology pipeline. So stay tuned for that.
Thanks for the question, and thanks, everybody, for joining us today for participating in our call. We're really looking forward to an exciting second half of the year and looking forward to sharing all the progress we're making at Ionis along the way. So thanks again for participating, and everybody, have a great Labor Day weekend.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Special Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Special Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
FDA-Zulassung für ZANVASTRO: erstes krankheitsmodifizierendes Medikament gegen Alexander‑Krankheit, US‑Launch startet, Preis $285.000/Dosis, EU/Japan‑Filings geplant.
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Approval: FDA hat ZANVASTRO als erstes und einziges krankheitsmodifizierendes Arzneimittel für Alexander‑Krankheit zugelassen; breite Indikation für Kinder und Erwachsene.
- Wirksamkeit: Pivotalstudie (N=54, Alter 2–53) erreichte primären Endpunkt Stabilisierung der Gehgeschwindigkeit (10‑m‑Walk); sekundäre Endpunkte und Biomarker (Plasma GFAP) stützten Ziel‑Engagement.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Unabhängiger Launch: ZANVASTRO ist Ionis' erste eigenständige kommerzielle Markteinführung in der Neurologie und erweitert das kommerzielle Portfolio neben TRYNGOLZA und DAWNZERA.
- Marktzugang: Launch‑Fokus auf ~12 Leukodystrophie‑Zentren und ~25 führende Neurologiezentren; omnichannel‑ und Patient‑Supportprogramm „Ionis Every Step“ zur Unterstützung von Diagnose, Zugang und Verbleib auf Therapie.
- Partner & PRV: Recordati plant EU/Japan‑Zulassungsanträge nächstes Jahr; FDA‑Priority‑Review‑Voucher (PRV) erhalten, Nutzung oder Verkauf noch offen, aber potenziell für eigene Programme vorgesehen.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Preis: $285.000 pro Dosis (vierteljährlich, intrathekal); Hilfsprogramme sollen Zuzahlungen für Berechtigte auf $0 reduzieren können.
- Patientenbasis: Schätzung ~300 Betroffene in den USA, ~150 identifiziert; 54 im Studienprogramm. Management erwartet schrittweise Konversion von Studien/EAP‑Patienten, primär in der zweiten Jahreshälfte.
- Umsatzerwartung: Peak‑Sales‑Schätzung bleibt >$100 Mio., Aufbau dauert wegen Diagnose‑/Identifikationsbedarf und Erstattungsprozessen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Patienten‑Conversion: Management nennt keine exakten EAP/OLE‑Zahlen; Conversion wird Monate dauern (vierteljährliche Dosierung, Logistik, Erstattungsprozesse).
- Erstattung: Medizinische Erstattung (buy‑and‑bill), voraussichtlich patientenbezogene „medical exception“; Institutionen sollen Produkt erst nach Kostenzusage bestellen.
- Plattform & Sicherheit: ZANVASTRO ist ein gemischter Backbone‑Gapmer‑Antisense‑Oligonukleotid, gleiche Chemie wie in anderen Neuroprogrammen (z.B. Angelman); Safety‑Profil ähnlich bei Kindern und Erwachsenen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Zulassung ist ein klinisch und strategisch wichtiges Ereignis: kleines, klar abzählbares Zielpatientenfeld mit >$100M Peak‑Potenzial, aber kurzfristig Risiko durch Patientensuche, Reimbursement und Logistik. Positiv: bewährte Plattform, erfahrenes Launch‑Team, EU/Japan‑Files und PRV als künftige Hebel.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to Ionis Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Wade Walke, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, to lead off the call. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Andrea. Before we begin, I encourage everyone to go to the Investors section of the Ionis website to view the press release and related financial tables we will be discussing today, including a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financials. We believe non-GAAP financial results better represent the economics of our business and how we manage our business. We've also posted slides on our website that accompany today's call.
With me this morning are Brett Monia, Chief Executive Officer; Kyle Jenne, Chief Global Product Strategy Officer; Holly Kordasiewicz, Chief Development Officer; and Beth Hougen, Chief Financial Officer; Eugene Schneider, Chief Clinical Development Officer; and Eric Swayze, Executive Vice President of Research, will also join us for the Q&A portion of the call.
I would like to draw your attention to Slide 3, which contains our forward-looking language statement. During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations and beliefs. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially. I encourage you to consult the risk factors contained in our SEC filings for additional detail.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Brett.
Thanks, Wade. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's call. on the center is the second half of 2026, well positioned to achieve the strategic opportunities that lie ahead. We have the R&D engine, the pipeline, commercial capabilities and financial discipline we need to execute on and achieve our goals. We are continuing to build momentum across our commercial medicines. And in parallel, we continue to strengthen and advance our wholly owned pipeline to deliver our next wave of important medicines.
Last month, we achieved a landmark milestone with the approval of TRYNGOLZA as the first and only FDA-approved medicine to reduce triglycerides in the risk of acute pancreatitis in adults with severe hypertriglyceridemia or SHTG. Although still early days, we are highly encouraged with our launch momentum to date. In fact, we began receiving prescriptions for TRYNGOLZA on the day of approval.
We are also pleased that both the 50-milligram and 80-milligram doses were in the channel within 1 week. Based on a strong profile and the enthusiasm we are seeing in prescribing, we are confident that TRYNGOLZA is well positioned to help a large population of patients in need and become the first Ionis own multibillion-dollar medicine. DAWNZERA 0 for hereditary angioedema also continues to gain momentum, we expect Unser to continue driving growth as it becomes more established in the HAE prophylactic treatment landscape.
We also continue to advance our leadership in the development of breakthrough treatments for a wide range of neurological diseases. We remain on track for the anticipated launch of Zilganerse, coming up soon, which is positioned to be the first disease-modifying treatment for Alexander's disease and the first independent launch from our neurological disease pipeline.
Following closely behind Zilganerse by the nurse, our medicine for Angelman Syndrome, which completed enrollment in the Phase III REVEAL study last month, keeping it on track for data next year. Earlier this month, we also announced the initiation of clinical development for ION337 in Dravet syndrome, expanding our clinical stage neurology pipeline, which now includes 8 medicines that are wholly owned.
Complementing our wholly owned pipeline is our partnered pipeline, which includes medicines targeting both rare and highly prevalent diseases, providing significant additional value for Ionis. This includes Bepirovirsen, our medicine for chronic hepatitis B. With a PDUFA target action date of October 26 and additional global filings under review, Bepirovirsen is on track for a global launch this year, positioning it to be a first-in-class medicine for the millions of people around the world living with this disease.
Data from the Phase III pelacarsen LPA horizon study in patients with elevated Lp(a) and cardiovascular disease is also a key catalyst coming up in the second half of this year. We were disappointed with the outcome of the cardio transform Phase III study for eplantersen in ATTR cardiomyopathy that we reported earlier this month. Although eplontersen demonstrated substantial and durable reductions in TTR, nominally significant results in the monotherapy subgroup and favorable safety, it did not meet the primary efficacy endpoint in the overall population.
We and AstraZeneca continue to analyze the data and will present the results at ESC in August. Our strong commercial execution, continued pipeline progress and our strong second quarter financial performance underscore the many opportunities we have to continue building substantial value. We remain on track to deliver on our 2026 financial guidance and achieve our goal of cash flow breakeven in 2028.
With that, I'll now turn the call over to Kyle, who will speak to the commercial execution of TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA and launch preparations for zilginerson. Olli will going to discuss how we are advancing our pipeline, highlighting several important catalysts ahead and Beth will review our financial results and outlook.
And with that, I'll turn it over to Kyle.
Thank you, Brett. Our commercial momentum continues to build, positioning us to deliver even greater impact in the second half of the year and beyond. We are executing well against our commercial priorities, including strong progress on the TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA launches and preparation for the zolginersen launch. Beginning with TRYNGOLZA, demand continues to build in FCS driven by an increasing number of patients initiating and remaining on treatment.
As expected, second quarter product sales reflected the reduced TRYNGOLZA wholesale acquisition cost that went into effect on April 1. The -- we updated the price ahead of the anticipated SHTG approval to align with annual payer contracting cycles to accelerate access to TRYNGOLZA. Underlying demand in FCS remained strong with the second quarter delivering the highest number of patient starts since the launch began.
Together with our commercial execution in FCS and early market access efforts we've established a strong foundation for the next phase of TRYNGOLZA growth as we launch in the broader patient population. The recent approval of TRYNGOLZA for SHTG marked the defining moment for Ionis. Importantly, it expanded our opportunity to serve millions of people living with severely elevated triglycerides.
We were particularly pleased with the TRYNGOLZA label, which includes prevention of acute pancreatitis in the indication statement. The label is supported by the groundbreaking results from the Phase III CORE and CORE II studies, which further underscores the importance of preventing acute pancreatitis in people with SHTG.
Building on this strong foundation, I'm happy to share that the SHTG launch is off to an encouraging start in the first few weeks. Thanks to the exceptional execution of our commercial team -- we began receiving prescriptions on day 1, and both the 50-milligram and 80-milligram doses were in the channel within approximately 1 week. Since the approval, our team has already engaged with many of our top physician targets who care for the majority of high-risk patients.
In addition, our omnichannel launch campaign has produced strong engagement, which is further helping to rapidly build awareness of SHTG, APOC3 biology and TRYNGOLZA. There are an estimated 3 million people in the U.S. with SHTG, including approximately 1 million people with high-risk SHTG who have triglycerides above 880 milligrams per deciliter, or triglycerides above 500 in a history of acute pancreatitis or other comorbidities.
The risk of acute pancreatitis begins to increase at triglyceride levels above 500 and rises exponentially in people with triglycerides above 880. As the first-to-market therapy with a novel mechanism proven to reduce the risk of painful, costly and potentially fatal acute pancreatitis attacks TRYNGOLZA is well positioned to serve patients across both segments. The majority of high-risk SHTG patients are treated by approximately 20,000 cardiologists, endocrinologists and lipidologists across the U.S. with additional patients treated by primary care physicians.
Early in the launch, we are seeing prescriptions from all 3 specialties in addition to a meaningful contribution from primary care physicians. We've also seen physicians prescribe TRYNGOLZA to people with high-risk SHTG and those with TGs between 500 and 800 milligrams per deciliter with no history of acute pancreatitis. Physicians are prescribing both the 50- and 80-milligram doses, highlighting the importance of dosing flexibility, which enables treating physicians to tailor treatment to the individual needs of each patient.
Importantly, we are executing on our market access strategy as planned. We have made good progress obtaining coverage for the broad population in patients with triglycerides above 500 milligrams per deciliter and across both commercial and government plans. Ultimately, we expect the SHTG market to comprise approximately 60% commercial and 40% government-covered patients. We also expect payer coverage to continue expanding through the remainder of this year and into next year as payers complete their reviews.
We're also making progress in expanding access to TRYNGOLZA outside the U.S. In the EU, Sobi is continuing to advance the launch in FCS, while also actively laying the groundwork for a strong launch in the broader SHTG indication anticipated next year. With this early SCG launch momentum, TRYNGOLZA is on track to meet our full year 2026 revenue guidance and positioned to achieve our projections for more than $3 billion in peak annual revenue.
The DAWNZERA launch also continued to gain momentum. In less than 1 year on the market, DAWNZERA has already captured a meaningful share of the U.S. HAE prophylaxis market, which is largely a switch market. This growth is driven by increasing adoption across all patient segments, including patients switching from existing prophylactic therapies, patients who were previously only using on-demand treatment and treatment-naive patients.
Physicians and patients consistently provide positive feedback on DAWNZERA, highlighting DAWNZERA strong efficacy and favorable safety profile Its differentiated RNA targeted mechanism, the positive switch data, which HCPs described as "differentiating and motivating" and on Zara's patient-friendly profile that includes a self-administered auto-injector that can be stored at room temperature for up to 6 weeks.
The base of repeat prescribers continues to grow. This is a key indicator that DAWNZERA is providing substantial benefit for patients and HCPs are having a positive experience prescribing it. Given that most patients on HE prophylactic medicines are already established on existing therapies Continued penetration will take time. However, the launch fundamentals give us confidence that DAWNZERA will contribute meaningfully to our commercial revenue growth in 2026 and beyond.
Outside the U.S., our partner Otsuka is making good progress with DAWNZERA and the launch in the EU. Over time, we expect ex U.S. countries to become an important contributor to overall DAWNZERA growth.
Turning to Zilganerse. We are well prepared for the launch for the treatment of Alexander disease coming up later this year. Based on the positive Phase III results for Zilganerse, we received FDA priority review with a PDUFA date of September 22. We have an expanded access program underway, and our commercial preparations are right on track to center around 4 key priorities.
First, pending approval, we will work to transition patients who are currently receiving Zilganerse through the clinical study or the expanded access program to commercial therapy. Second, we will focus on getting patients already diagnosed with Alexander's disease in the U.S. on Zilganerse. It's estimated that about half of the approximately 300 patients in the U.S. are already identified through ICD-10 codes and patient registries.
Third, we will drive disease awareness among physicians who care for people with rare neurological diseases, prioritizing engagement with the dozen U.S. leukodystrophy centers. Following approval, we expect these centers as key referral and treatment hubs to play a central role in identifying more patients and providing them with treatment. And fourth, we are building a dedicated patient services platform, which we have designed based on feedback from stakeholders to address the specific needs of the Alexander disease community.
Additionally, our customer-facing team is now in place and prepared to rapidly reach patients upon our potential Zilganerse approval. Importantly, we expect to leverage many of the capabilities we are building for Zilganerse for our future neurology medicine launches. We also recently took an important step toward bringing Zilganerse to people with Alexander's disease outside the U.S. to our agreement with Recordati.
Recordati plans to file for regulatory approval for Zilganerse in the EU and Japan next year with additional global filings to follow. With our first broad patient population launch now underway, growing momentum across our commercial portfolio and a strong pipeline behind it, we believe Ionis is well positioned to bring more important medicines to people with serious diseases.
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Holly.
Thank you, Kyle. This quarter, we made meaningful progress across our pipeline. TRYNGOLZA approval for the treatment of SHTG is a significant milestone for Ionis and for patients. Our goals of approval was supported by the unprecedented results from the Phase III CORE and HRI study, in which TRYNGOLZA acheived rapid, substantial and clinically meaningful placebo-adjusted main reductions in triglycerides of up to 72%. -- these trigoside reductions resulted in a profound reduction in acute pancreatitis events by up to 91%.
TRYNGOLZA treatment also led to 86% of patients reaching triglyceride levels below 500 mg per deciliter, the threshold that defines SHTG. Up to 54% of patients reaching normal levels below 150 mg per deciliter and favorable safety and tolerability, which resulted were further reinforced by longer-term data from the core and core 2 open-label extension study, which we recently presented at the National Lipid Association Scientific session.
We will share additional data from the OLE at ESC in August. As Kyle mentioned, the TRYNGOLZA label includes acute pancreatitis risk reduction in the indication statement which underscores the importance of preventing these debilitating and potentially fatal attacks and further validate our unprecedented results. With this groundbreaking clinical profile, TRYNGOLZA is poised to redefine the treatment of this underserved disease.
Beyond TRYNGOLZA, we are advancing a number of promising wholly-owned cardiometabolic disease medicines, including IN-775, our next-generation medicine for the treatment of STG. We recently advanced IN775 into a Phase IIb study in patients with SHTG are moderately elevated triglycerides based on positive Phase I data in healthy volunteers with elevated triglycerides.
These results showed the potential for an optimized profile characterized by substantial durable and sustained reductions in APOC3 and triglycerides with the potential for semiannual or less frequent dosing. We look forward to presenting these data on ION775 at ESC next month. And as Brett mentioned, we will also show detailed data from the aplontersen cardiotransform study at ESC.
Turning next to our neurology franchise. We remain on track to bring Zilganerse to patients with Alexander disease later this year, assuming approval. This rare progressive and often fatal leukodystrophy profoundly affects patients and families. And today, there are no approved disease-modifying therapies. Our positive Phase III results marked the first time any therapy demonstrated a disease-modifying impact in these patients.
Our next wholly on Phase III program is open in expense for the treatment of Angelman syndrome. Angelman Syndrome is a neurodevelopmental disorder that causes profound and lifelong physical and cognitive impairment, estimated effect more than 100,000 people globally. We recently announced that enrollment in the Phase III REVEAL study is complete which keeps us on track to report data in the second half of next year, bringing us an important step closer to potentially delivering this medicine to families in need.
We recently advanced our medicine for the treatment of Dravet syndrome, a rare, severe and lifelong neurological disorder into a Phase I/II first-in-human study. We advanced IM337 based on encouraging preclinical data, which we believe positions this program to become a best-in-class treatment for this devastating disease. IO-337 is our first wholly owned medicine that uses our proprietary NMA chemistry, designed to achieve maximal and sustained modulation of SCN1a with a long dosing interval.
Our NMA chemistry is the same breakthrough technology that enables Zilganerse to achieve substantial efficacy and favorable safety with annual dosing in a Phase I study in patients with spinal muscular atrophy. Our partner, Biogen recently advanced Zilganerse on into Phase III development based on these positive results, positioning it to meet the remaining unmet needs of people living with spinal muscular atrophy.
We were also encouraged by the Phase II Celio data, Biogen presented at AAIC for derinersen in early Alzheimer's disease. These results are the first to demonstrate the significant potential of targeting intracellular tile as a treatment for AD. Zilganerse showed significant reductions in CSF to levels, accompanied by a reversal of how pathology as measured by Tapad.
We also saw remarkable effects on cognition as shown by a 34% to 50% slow decline in MMSE versus placebo and a meaningful effect on composite endpoints that include both cognitive and functional domain. Although the Phase II study did not meet the primary endpoint, the totality of these data support Biogen's plan to initiate Phase III development.
We are also pleased with the recent initiation of the Phase III INTREPID study of sapablersen by our partner, Ono. This study is evaluating sapablarsen in people with phlebotomy-dependent policemavera a rare, but potentially lipreading hematologic disease with significant unmet need. Assuming positive data, sapablursen would represent an important value driver from our partner pipeline.
In Bepirovirsen, our medicine for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B partnered with GSK is on track for approval in the U.S. and Japan later this year with multiple additional global approvals anticipated next year. Based on positive data from the Phase IIIb well studies demonstrating unprecedented functional cure rates, Bepirovirsen is positioned to become a first-in-class treatment for chronic hepatitis B, a disease affecting millions of people around the world.
Also in the second half, we expect late-stage readouts from several partner programs, including pelacarsen for Lp(a)-driven cardiovascular disease with Novartis, ulusnersen for FUS-ALS with Otsuka and Sutaxtison for IgA nephropathy with Roche. Overall, the progress we have made across the pipeline this year reinforces both the strength of our R&D engine and our confidence in the next wave of opportunities to reach more and more patients in need and drive future growth.
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Beth.
Thank you, Holly. We delivered strong financial results in the first half of this year, supported by increased revenue from our commercial medicines and meaningful R&D revenue from our partnered programs, while we continued to invest in our long-term growth. Revenues in the second quarter and first half of this year were $268 million and $540 million, respectively, representing significant year-over-year growth of 56% and 69% compared to the same period last year.
Excluding the $280 million onetime payment we received from Ono in the first half of last year for Sapoblursen. Commercial revenue increased to $119 million in the second quarter, and $226 million in the first half, up 15% and 27%, respectively, from the same periods last year. These increases were driven primarily by DAWNZERA product sales. Shinola generated product sales of $5 million and $32 million in the second quarter and first half of this year.
The decrease in revenues in the second quarter followed the April 1 reduction in the TRYNGOLZA WAC price. -- which we implemented strategically ahead of our expansion into the broader SHTG indication. We continue to expect TRYNGOLZA to return to revenue growth in the second half of this year as the SHTG launch gains momentum. DAWNZERA generated $26 million in the second quarter and $42 million in the first half, with second quarter sales increasing by 63% compared to this year's first quarter.
Research and development revenue was $149 million in the second quarter and $288 million year-to-date, reflecting continued progress across our partnered pipeline. Operating expenses increased as expected in the second quarter and first half of this year compared to the same period last year, driven by costs associated with commercializing TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA preparations to launch Zigonersen later this year and advancing medicines in our rich pipeline.
We ended the second quarter with $2.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. enabling us to continue investing in our commercial medicines and wholly owned pipeline.
Looking to the remainder of the year, our strong first half results keep us on track to achieve our full year 2026 financial guidance. We continue to project full year revenue in the range of $875 million to $900 million, with results weighted slightly more towards commercial revenues. We remain on track to achieve our TRYNGOLZA and DANZ product level guidance. This includes full year TRYNGOLZA product sales of $100 million to $110 million with TRYNGOLZA expected to return to revenue growth in the second half of this year as the SHTG launch gains momentum.
And full year DAWNZERA product sales of $110 million to $120 million with continued growth forecasted in the second half of this year. Additionally, we anticipate meaningful R&D revenue from existing collaborations including the potential for additional milestones tied to bepuraversen, palocarsen and other partner programs as they advance.
On the expense side, we continue to expect 2026 operating expenses to increase in the low teens percentage range compared to last year. driven primarily by sales and marketing expenses related to our ongoing and upcoming commercial launches. We project R&D expenses to remain consistent with last year as several of our late-stage studies conclude and we redeploy resources to earlier-stage programs within our wholly owned pipeline.
And as a result of our focus on improving our operating leverage, we expect a non-GAAP operating loss between $425 million and $475 million. This is similar to our 2025 operating loss after adjusting for the onetime Safalorsen license fee we are last year. And finally, we are projecting a 2026 year-end cash balance of greater than $1.6 billion.
With our strong first half financial performance and our outlook for the remainder of this year, we remain on track to achieve our full year 2026 financial guidance and cash flow breakeven in 2028, while continuing to drive substantial growth and longer-term value creation.
With that, I'll turn the call back over to Brett.
Thank you, Beth. Our outlook for the remainder of 2026 and beyond reflects Ionis' strength and the substantial opportunity for continued success that lies ahead. We are executing well on our independent launches for TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA and are well prepared for our next launch zilgonersen in Alexander's disease anticipated later this year.
In addition to driving value through commercial success, we also have many important near and midterm catalysts from across our development pipeline, each with the potential to further drive substantial value. We are well positioned to continue executing successfully on our commercial launches and to deliver a steady cadence of breakthrough medicines to patients.
Now before we move to Q&A, I'd like to take a moment to recognize Frank Bennett, our Chief Scientific Officer, whose planned retirement we announced earlier this morning. Frank is one of Ionis' founding scientists and has helped shape Ionis and advance the field of RNA targeted medicines. While his leadership helped create this new sector for human therapeutics, some of the greatest contributions were in the field of neurology, which led to the approval of SPINRAZA for SMA and Kaldi for SOD1 ALS, along with the establishment of a rich pipeline poised to deliver a steady stream of breakthrough treatments for neurological thesis.
On behalf of the entire Ionis team, I want to thank Frank for his many contributions, his dedication to patients and lasting impact he has had on Ionis in the field of organically type therapeutics.
And with that, we'll open the call up for questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Jason Gerberry of Bank of America.
2. Question Answer
Just wanted to key in a little bit on early adoption of TRYNGOLZA. How much of that is being driven by physicians with overlapping FCS patients that they were treating -- is that sort of the core early prescriber in this initial kind of 6 to 9 months? And where physicians are attempting to write prescriptions. Can you talk a little bit about the average processing time for them to go from an enrollment form to getting a script covered?
Is that through medical exceptions, I assume? So those are my questions.
Thanks, Jason. This is Kyle. Happy to cover off on those. First, I'll say that the FCS launch really was important to the launch now in SHTG. Obviously, that laid the groundwork and the foundation for the readiness to bring the drug forward to a prevalent population. Many of the early prescribers are previous treaters of FCS. They have experience using the drug, and they've had really, really positive results from doing so. But we're also seeing more physicians than just the FCS prescribers starting to use TRYNGOLZA for SHTG.
The other thing that I'll just mention here is the FCS growth in Q2 and the demand continued to accelerate significantly. Having more treaters and more patients on drug, obviously, will help us accelerate the SHTG launch as well. So the short answer to your question is yes. There are treaters of FCS that are also prescribing, but it goes well beyond that.
In terms of process time, it's really too early to discuss those details. We're just a couple of weeks into the launch. What we've seen from payers so far is very encouraging, not only in terms of the Rx to approval time so far, but also just in terms of our conversations that we're having with the payers where they are beginning to assess SHTG and assess to put coverage criteria in place so that there's a clear pathway for approval.
Here early in the launch, the majority of the coverage criteria is going to be through medical exception. That was to be anticipated. And we would expect to see continued coverage improve through the back half of this year and as we start 2027 should look much better.
Next question comes from Elie Merrill of Barclays.
Can you just elaborate a little bit more in terms of what you're seeing in terms of reimbursement? I know you mentioned that you're seeing reimbursement firing, patients with triglycerides over 500. But are you seeing any differences in how payers are treating the coverage of patients with triglycerides over 880 versus those over 500.
And then just a second question. What are your expectations for wage sales in polyneuropathy now after the cardiotransform data given much of the polyneuropathy patients are mixtape.
Yes. Thanks, Ellie. Let me -- I'll start with the Trengolza question. We are seeing coverage to label. The label is very strong here, right, greater than 500, it does not limit patients over 880. It does not limit a history of acute pancreatitis. So the conversations that we've had with payers and what we've seen from the early approvals through the medical exception process, has all reflected the actual indication statement in the label, which is what we expected based on our payer research going into the launch.
So it will take a little bit of work for the HCPs as expected at launch to do these prior authorizations to provide a letter of medical necessity potentially to justify the background therapy that the patient has been on and what their triglyceride levels are, but that's all very consistent with what we expected the policies to represent. So I think things are on track, and we're very encouraged by the early interactions and discussions that we've had with payers.
On the WAINUA side, demand continues to be strong for the hereditary polyneuropathy patient -- the challenge that we are seeing on the WAINUA side is with the mixed phenotype patient where Ambutra has an indication for both polynopathy and cardiomyopat but otherwise, physicians are having very positive experience prescribing and treating these patients, and feedback has been very strong in terms of control of TTR and knockdown, control of polyneuropathy symptoms, payer access and coverage and the ability to self-administer with an auto-injector.
So we expect sales to continue in polyneuropathy and the teams continue to do a nice job.
The next question comes from Gary Nachman of Canaccord Genuity.
So for SHTG, are you finding that most of these patients are already on SMCG lowering or lipid lowering drugs? Are they switching to TRYNGOLZA . -- we're adding TRYNGOLZA on top of their other treatments? And are there any real true naive patients that are being put on drug at this point?
And then -- just what are you hearing from physicians on TRYNGOLZA's profile as the monthly subcu -- and has there been any real concerns with the elevated liver fat holding back prescribing at all? And how are you communicating that.
Yes. Thanks, Gary. So the short answer to the first question is we're seeing a mix of patients. The majority of these patients, obviously, are high-risk SHTG patients. They're above -- the majority of these patients have been on some sort of background therapy, which is very consistent with our core and CORE II trials. I mean, almost 100% of the patients were on some sort of fibroid or omega-3 or statin in the clinical trial and that's consistent with how HCPs are using standard of care today and doing everything they can to try to get triglycerides lowered below 500 and get these patients out of the risk of acute pancreatitis but have just been unable to do so.
So the majority of these patients are on background standard of care therapy, and they are adding TRYNGOLZA to those patients in order to get the benefit of up to 72% risk -- excuse me, reduction in triglycerides and up to a 91% reduction in acute pancreatitis. So -- they're using it very consistent with the way that the clinical trial was designed and the way that HCPs have been treating these patients up to this time.
The profile is coming across very strong. First, I'll just mention the indication statement having AP represented there. It really reflects the outcome of treating high triglycerides and what that means for patients and what that means for HCPs that are trying to treat these patients and get them out of harm's wave acute pancreatitis.
The monthly auto injector is very well received. It's low dose. It's very easy to use. The patients can take it once a month. They don't have to try to figure out, is it month 1 or month 2 or month 3. And we're finding that consistent with the FCS launch, adherence and persistency in patients are starting and staying on and doing very well on the monthly administration with the auto-injector.
And for hepatic fat, I'll turn it over to Brett.
Yes. Thanks, Kyle. And Gary, thanks for the question. So -- we are -- we believe that the evidence that the effects on the liver fat -- small increases in liver that we see is an on-target effect, is very convincing. And prior to us presenting the data at National Lipid Association earlier this year, we didn't even have push back at that time from HCPs on concerns over the small increases in liver fat, especially because there was no association with any clinical sequelae. There were no clinical complications associated with the small increases in liver fat that we saw.
That was further reinforced when we presented the NLA data, the data NLA, which we showed that with continued treatment, the increase in liver fat was returning to baseline. Again, long-term treatment, no association with clinical sequel. So that was just reinforced there. And as we continue to evaluate patients in the long-term, even further long-term open-label extension. Again, we're not seeing any emerging adverse events in the study. So no concerns on the HCP community and that's been further reinforced with long-term data.
The next question comes from Moritz writer of Guggenheim Securities.
This is Marc on for Doucet. I have 2 questions. The first 1 on Cingular, How, if at all, has the recent precaseran data changed your outlook for rings -- and the second 1 on Horizon. What's your confidence in the trial? And should Horizon disappoint how are you thinking about your path to profitability?
Yes. So Marc, thank you for the question. We believe we have -- based on everything we've seen so far, we continue to believe that we have a best-in-class medicine when you look at the totality of the data for the treatment of SHTG. And when you look at the triglyceride lowering, that Holly summarized in her prepared remarks and the and the overall reduction in acute pancreatitis along with safety and tolerability and first-mover advantage.
Also, we have no we have no concerns about competition. We continue to reiterate our peak product sales in the U.S. of being $3 billion plus. So there was no surprises in any data that has emerged since we've launched.
With respect to Horizon, our confidence remains -- continues to be the same high -- we believe that Las cardiovascular risk factor, independent risk factor, the evidence is overwhelming. We have the right drug. The baseline demographics last all manuscript lays it all out on the powering assumptions in that study. and the drug has been well tolerated. And we're looking forward to the results in the -- later this year. And then -- I'm sorry, the third part of the question was.
Should anoint what's the route to profitability?
Yes. So I would say in the in the event that helecarsen Phase III were not to be positive, it would not have an impact on our 2026 financial guidance. it would put some pressure on our ability to achieve our goal of cash flow breakeven in 2028. But I want to emphasize that's a very important goal for us at Ionis -- and we will work very, very hard to achieve that goal.
The next question comes from Mike Os of Morgan Stanley.
Maybe a few just on ION 775. Just curious if you can give us a sense of what data we might expect at the upcoming ESC meeting maybe in terms of end point level of follow-up, et cetera, there? And then maybe just secondly, as we think about time lines for this program, maybe you can share how you're thinking about that in terms of path to market number of clinical studies? And is there ways to sort of shorten that just given your experience with the core programs.
This is Holly. Thank you. The IN 775 data that we'll be sharing at ESC, it's this year-long data, safety as well as our efficacy and activity data on our key biomarkers. So it should be a very interesting data set for everybody to view in terms of where we're at. So we are in the Phase IIB study right now. Of course, we are using all of our previous learnings to accelerate the program as much as we can. We haven't discussed timing externally, but we are absolutely using everything that we've learned from our previous programs and data sets to apply to this program.
Yes. And just to add to that, Mike. So you'll see the long-term data on triglycerides in the mildly elevated triglyceride population and the durability that 775 is offering, as Holly mentioned, in our prepared remarks, this is at least twice a year or even less frequent dosing opportunity. So it's a pure play on convenience.
We don't believe that we can do much better than the efficacy that TRYNGOLZA is already presenting. I mean it's best-in-class efficacy profile. It's really allowing us to get to maybe twice a year once a year dosing. I mean, that's what we're going to focus on. And the data will show APOC3 reductions that support that conclusion, triglyceride reductions that support that conclusion as well as the good tolerability.
And also just to add, the enrollment is going well for -- although it's early innings for the Phase IIb study, it's going well. And our focus is to get that study done selected dose and move to Phase III as quickly as possible, but it's still too early to put time lines on when we can get that done.
The next question comes from Lana Zao of Wells Fargo Securities.
Great. For SHTG, I was wondering, based on the first few weeks of launch, how does that early momentum track with your internal expectation? Especially in relationship to the full year guidance. Apparently, you made that guidance without any first-hand experience of the launch.
So just curious, are you do you think you're ahead of that internal expectation at this point of time or in line? And for cardio transform, I was wondering if there regulatory path for monotherapy? And could any of the data to be presented at ESC inform how you and estrogenic think about any potential range path?
Thanks, Ann. And I'll take the first -- the second question first, and then I'll hand it over to Kyle to talk about how the HCG is tracking with respect to guidance and so on. So we and AstraZeneca continue to review the data from the cardio transform studies, a lot of data. We're preparing to present at ESC. We present -- I'm referring to published. We have several public presentations at ESC, including the cardio transform study, the combination subgroup as well as a meta-analysis study that is being conducted by an independent group of academic physicians.
As far as regulatory path, AstraZeneca is weighing all their options in and they're still going through the data. There's a lot to process there. So -- there's nothing new to report with that. And the data at ESC, I think will support all the conclusions we've made already, which is very clear that in the mogroup that was on monotherapy at baseline, so not tafamidis at baseline.
The efficacy in the composite primary endpoint as well as the secondary end points are in line with the silencer class. There was no benefit in the combination group, and you'll see that data in quite detailed at the ESC meeting. Kyle?
Yes. Thanks, Jan. I'll say internally, we are absolutely meeting the expectations of the launch here, keeping in mind that we're only 4 or 5 weeks into this. So it's very early. The key priorities right out of the gate, obviously, is to get drug into channel. We did that within 1 week, both the 50- and 80-milligram doses were in channel very, very quickly allowing the prescriptions that were coming in early, if approved by the payer to be able to go out directly to patients and get patients on drug very quickly.
So a lot of this is operational at the very beginning. And based on the launches of TRYNGOLZA FCS and on DAWNZERA and HAE, we had a really good experience recently of launching drugs and making sure that we did this expeditiously and effectively. -- and it's exactly what we've done with SHTG. So I'm very pleased with the team's execution there.
The other components, things around training, for example, training to the field teams, approval of materials, deployment of content, those types of things went extremely well. Our omnichannel capabilities are operating exactly as planned. So we've been able to give notice about the approval to tens of thousands of HCPs that see patients with high triglycerides.
So building awareness and making sure that there is an understanding that there's a product now available to treat those patients. Payer engagement and patient services are the other 2 areas that I would highlight, which have both gone very well. So operationally, I'm very pleased with the team, and we're off to a very good start with the launch.
In terms of full year guidance, $100 million to $110 million, we are still confident in that based on the FCS performance that we saw earlier in the year. And based on the early signs and signals that we're seeing combined with the very strong label that we achieved for Tangos on SHTG.
The next question comes from Johan Werber of TD Cowen.
Great congrats on the progress. Maybe, Karl, 2 questions for you, commercially. On SHTG, 1 of the questions we've been getting is, do you think there's going to be sort of an initial pent-up demand or bolus or some clinics or kind of triaging patients to get treated with TRYNGOLZA now that it's approved?
And then secondly, for DAWNZERA, I mean you're seeing very nice kind of quarter-over-quarter growth -- you mentioned, obviously, it's a switch market. What sort of is the main competitor at this point? And how are you -- what are you seeing in terms of demand?
Yes. Thanks for the questions. In terms of pent-up demand, we believe this is going to be a gradual build and a moderate build over time for a couple of reasons. Number one, this is a new mechanism and a new treatment, and it takes some time to educate the HCPs.
Number two, we've got to get those patients into the clinic to see these HCPs. So we've got to drive that awareness and interest to the patient. -- so that they're motivated to get into these clinics and can be treated. And then the third component is the payer access piece that I discussed earlier, right? We've got medical exception process here early on as we're gaining the utilization management criteria with payers.
So it will take a little bit of time for that to build and grow. I expect that to happen through the back half of this year and then 2027 is where we will really see the launch begin to build and pick up. As HCPs gain more experience and more patients begin to come in. And be treated for SHTG.
On the DONZERa side, I couldn't be more pleased with how the team is performing and how we are building the momentum. Q2, we did $26 million in revenue is up 63% over Q1. This is less than 1 year in the market, and we've got a meaningful share of a market that is a switch market. We're seeing switches. We're also seeing patients that are being treated with on-demand only therapies to be started on DUNZER and also naive patients.
But as you would expect, there are multiple therapies in the class, and they have different profiles. And what we know from the switch data is that some patients have an efficacy challenge. Some have a tolerability challenge and some have an experience in duration of treatment issue, right, where they're having to take the drug too frequently. So it depends on which drug it is, but we're seeing switches from all of the prophylactic therapies out there. and HCPs are having very positive experiences prescribing and they're coming back to use the drug more and more, which we're very encouraged by.
The next question comes from Acis Tiwari of Jefferies.
Okay. This is Manoj on for Akash. Just 1 from our end. -- do you expect GTX102 demonstrate a meaningful efficacy trend and upcoming engine went trade out? And how should we think about the potential read-through from that data to expectations? So Iona,.
Can you repeat the question, please? We didn't quite get that.
for the Angelman's upcoming readout for GTX-102, -- how should we think about the rate through from data to your program?
Yes, yes. Yes. This is Holly. I'd be happy to take that. So the Ultragenyx data readout, we're expecting that later this year, that will teach us a couple of things. One of the big things that we're looking for from that is to understand the placebo effect that that patient population will have, that's not something that we know from this. So we are looking to do that.
In terms of the read-through to our program for the Ultragenyx data itself, you have to remember that those are very different molecules. So they're dosing at a much lower dose than we're dosing. So we hope that they have positive effects that are encouraging for the community. However, if they don't, it will likely be because we -- that they're dosing lower than we are for our study.
Yes. And I'll just add to that. Our research organization has done a very nice job benchmarking Obus Anderson with ION-582 with other molecules that are out there that are in development, and we don't see any potency advantages of any other molecule compared to IN582. So we have a highly potent molecule -- and as Holli said, we've been able to dose to the maximum dose that we've set out the dose to drive efficacy as an 80-milligram quarterly dose. So -- so looking forward to emerging data, and we're looking forward to reading out our study next year.
The next question comes from Salveen Richter of Goldman Sachs.
This is Tom on for Salveen and just 2 on Trina -- so in FCS, maybe some more color on the impact from switches from Arrowhead and on the capture of new starts, if you're seeing any -- and on SHTG, maybe if you could lean more into what you're seeing from the primary care side?
Yes. Thanks, Tommy. We've seen no meaningful impact from the competition in Q2 was by far our strongest demand quarter and the highest quarter that we've had for new patient starts. The profile of Trengolza is being very well received by HCP HCPs that are using Tringolza for the first time, are looking to come back to it.
And when they see the triglyceride lowering and the ability to self-administer with the auto-injector the profile is stacking up very, very strong in terms of the way that they need to treat these patients in the way that the patients feel and are doing on treatment once they get initiated. On the primary care side of things, part of the audience of the 20,000 HCPs that we have targeted that are treating these SHTG patients at high risk also are from the PCP audience. So they are seeing these patients.
And I think the predominant prescriptions we're going to get are going to be from cardiology, endocrinology and lipidology -- but I just think it's important to note that PCPs are seeing these patients and they are willing to prescribe and they're interested in trying to treat these patients on their own because they've been trying to do so with standard of care with fibrates, omega-3, statins, et cetera, and just have been unsuccessful up to this point. So we will continue the very broad awareness and disease education. to all specialties that are seeing these patients. And early on, we've got very positive indicators across the board.
The next question comes from Luca Ice of RBC.
Progress Maybe, Kyle, 1 more for you. on the launch of severe hyproducerademia, obviously clear enthusiasm here from the KOL community to prescribe the drug. However, we have heard from a docs that are the barrier is that there's no dedicated ICD-10 code specifically for over a erode -- so doc needs to use codes for related conditions like hyperchylomimia syndrome or maybe hyperglycemia -- and so that can sometimes create some barriers, some confusions to get the drug reimbursed.
Is that consistent with what you've been hearing? And if so, can you talk about how you're planning to address that. And then maybe second for Recolomyopathy, Brett, if I can circle back on the prior question, you mentioned at ESC, you will present this meta-analysis done by an independent group of physicians. Can you maybe just expand a little bit more on that? What's the purpose of that analysis? And how should we think about the implication of that analysis for the broader field?
Yes. Thanks, Luca. On the ICD-10 code side, I'll start by saying that has been on our radar for quite some time, and it's something that we are looking for opportunities to help the community come up with an ICD-10 code that they can use to explicitly reference SHTG. So that work is ongoing with the agencies, and we'll see what we can do in order to help that happen. But in terms of reimbursement, there are other things that they can use to justify the appropriate use of the drug and get reimbursement. First is the labeled indication.
Second is to support that labeled indication with the patient's medical history and reference the drugs that those patients are being treated on as well as the triglyceride levels that the patients still exhibit even though that they're on those medications. So doing a prior authorization, including a letter of medical necessity is pretty standard for a specialty product like this at launch.
And we're working with the different HCPs in order to make sure they understand what's required in order to do that and also supporting them in a compliant way so that they can do that successfully.
And Luke, I'm going to ask Holly to take the question back expanding on the meta analysis.
Yes. So the meta analysis is really focused on the silence or class and understanding the totality of data within that class, including our new cardio transform data and comparing them both as monotherapies as well as on top of the stabilizers.
That's the main presentation. It's going to be comparing those 2 studies and as single agents as well as combination.
The next question will come from Jessica of JPMorgan.
I was curious about ION 337 for Dravet. Can you help us think about when we might see the Part 1 data from the Phase II -- and just given the long lead time for zurivinersen, how might 337 differentiate.
Yes, I'm happy to take that one. So for 337, we just started dosing. So it's too early to talk about time lines, but we are -- there's a lot of enthusiasm from the community, the KOL no Ionis and NOR technology. and are -- we're excited to get that moving quickly as is the community.
In terms of differentiation, because we're using our new NMA technology, -- it's more potent than the Mo chemistry, our previous chemistry that we use for Spice modulation, you get increased potency and then allows you to spread out your dosing interval and increase your efficacy.
Thanks, Jess. I think we have time for 1 more question.
Our last question comes from Eric Joseph of Citi.
Just thinking about the upcoming core OLE data at ESC, -- maybe just a little bit of expectation setting there. What incremental endpoints in addition to the NLA presentation are interest? Or would you have a focus on there? To what extent, I guess, is an ongoing AP of that rate, something that you're tracking in the OLE portion?
And then just perhaps a clarifying question on the strategy with 775. Is the goal here predominantly to be a convenience play over Tingo in SHTG -- or is there an expansion opportunity in moderate HTG that you think is worth pursuing? And if so, what would TPP look like there?
Yes. Thanks, Eric. I'll ask Ali to talk a little bit about what we're planning to present at ESC on the long-term data on core and core 2, I'll take 775. So the goal is primarily -- we're primarily focused right now on severe hypertriglyceridemia. 775 as a follow-on molecule for this indication, and it is primarily a convenience play I think I mentioned earlier that the efficacy and tolerability safety profile of Trinco and SHTG is difficult to beat.
So we'll strive to do that, but it's really a convenience play that we think that we can dose this drug twice a year, maybe once per year based on our Phase I data. And that Phase I data will be presented at ESC and I think it will be clear how durable 75-inch.
We'll always consider other indications, but primarily -- and we haven't laid out -- we have not established our Phase III plan. Yes, we're still working through that and the speed we need more Phase II data before we can really make those decisions. But it's really primarily focused on this HTG. And Holly, what can we expect on the long-term data for CO2 ESC.
This is looking at 1 year into the OLE. So of course, we'll be looking at triglyceride levels as well as full safety data and all of the key biomarkers looking at remit cholesterol, APOC3, on HDL, all of those various markers.
Yes. It's very exciting long-term data. on the durability of efficacy as well as lack of any emerging adverse events or anything. on the safety side. So thanks for the question, Eric. Thank you, everybody, for joining us today for participating in our call. We really are looking forward to an exciting second half of the year for Ionis, and we look forward to sharing our progress along the way. Until then, thanks, everybody, and have a great day.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Solider Q2-Report: starke Launch-Momentum für TRYNGOLZA/DAWNZERA, Guidance bestätigt, mehrere near‑term Daten- und Zulassungs‑Katalysatoren.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz Q2: $268M (+56% YoY)
- Umsatz H1: $540M (+69% YoY)
- Commercial: $119M Q2 (+15% YoY), getrieben von DAWNZERA
- R&D‑Revenue: $149M Q2 ($288M YTD) aus Partnerprogrammen
- Barmittel: $2.1Bn Ende Q2; erwartetes Jahresende >$1.6Bn
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- TRYNGOLZA‑Launch: Erstes Medikament mit zugelassenem Nachweis der Reduktion des Risikos für akute Pankreatitis bei schwerer Hypertriglyceridämie (SHTG); schneller Marktzugang und frühe Verschreibungen.
- Portfolio & Pipeline: Ausbau neurologischer Programme (Zilganerse, Angelman, Dravet/ION337) plus Partner‑Assets (Bepirovirsen, pelacarsen) als Mehrwerttreiber.
- Kommerzielle Priorität: Fokus auf Marktzugang, omnichannel‑Awareness und Patient‑Services; Zilganerse als nächster unabhängiger Launch (PDUFA 22.9.).
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Jahresguidance: Umsatz $875–900M bestätigt; TRYNGOLZA Produktumsatz $100–110M; DAWNZERA $110–120M.
- Kosten & Ergebnis: Operative Kosten +low‑teens% vs. Vorjahr; non‑GAAP Betriebsverlust $425–475M erwartet.
- Risiken: WAC‑Preissenkung für TRYNGOLZA dämpfte Q2; eingeschränkte anfängliche Erstattungen (medizinische Ausnahmen) können Launch‑Tempo beeinflussen; negativer Ausgang bei eplontersen (ATTR‑CM) belastet Perspektive auf Erreichung von Cash‑Breakeven 2028.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Launch‑Dynamik: Viele frühe Verschreiber aus FCS‑Erfahrung, aber zusätzlich Kardiologen/Endokrinologen/Lipidologen; PCPs tragen ebenfalls bei.
- Erstattung & Zugang: Frühphase überwiegend via medical exceptions; Management erwartet zunehmende Coverage H2 und 2027, ICD‑10‑Code für SHTG wird adressiert.
- Sicherheit & Daten: Bedenken zu Leberfettanstieg bei TRYNGOLZA wurden als klein, on‑target und reversibel dargestellt; CardioTransform (eplontersen) wird detailliert auf ESC präsentiert, regulatorische Optionen werden noch geprüft.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Ionis liefert Wachstum aus frühen Launches und Partnerumsätzen und bestätigt die Jahresziele; die Pipeline bietet mehrere bedeutende near‑term Katalysatoren (Zilganerse, Bepirovirsen, Pelacarsen/ESC‑Daten). Anleger sollten Launch‑KPIs (Rx‑Starts, Erstattungsrate), ESC‑Präsentationen und Partner‑Readouts beobachten, da Misserfolge (z.B. eplontersen) das Timing zur Profitabilität belasten können.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Special Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Good afternoon, and welcome to Ionis' conference call to discuss the FDA approval of TRYNGOLZA for sHTG. As a reminder, note that this conference call is being recorded.
At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Wade Walke, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, to lead off the call. Wade, please begin.
Thank you, Sylvie, and thank you to everyone who has joined us today as we discuss the FDA approval of TRYNGOLZA for sHTG, which is now approved in the U.S. to reduce triglycerides and the risk of acute pancreatitis in adults with severe hypertriglyceridemia. Please be sure to visit the Investors section of the Ionis website to see the press release and Ionis issued -- press release that Ionis issued earlier today, along with the slides accompanying today's webcast.
Before we begin, I would like to remind you that our discussion today will contain forward-looking statements based on our current expectations and beliefs. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially. I encourage you to consult the risk factors contained in our SEC filings for additional detail.
With me on the call today are Brett Monia, Chief Executive Officer; Sam Tsimikas, SVP, Global Cardiovascular Development; and Kyle Jenne, Chief Global Product Strategy Officer.
For our agenda today, Brett will provide opening remarks. Sam will provide a brief review of the data that supported the approval and label of TRYNGOLZA. Kyle will review our strategy to achieve launch success with TRYNGOLZA now that it's approved for the larger sHTG indication. And after Brett's brief conclusion, we will open the call for your questions regarding TRYNGOLZA.
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Brett.
Thanks, Wade, and thanks to everybody for joining us today. I'm thrilled to share that TRYNGOLZA is now approved as the first and only therapy indicated to reduce triglycerides and the risk of acute pancreatitis in adults with severe hypertriglyceridemia. TRYNGOLZA's approval is a landmark milestone establishing it as the first-ever medicine approved to prevent acute pancreatitis for people living with sHTG.
This approval is also a transformational achievement for Ionis. It not only demonstrates our continued leadership in translating groundbreaking science into the delivery of breakthrough medicines, but also further demonstrates our commitment in establishing Ionis as a leading fully integrated commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The approval of TRYNGOLZA for sHTG was supported by the unprecedented Phase III results we reported last year in which TRYNGOLZA demonstrated rapid, substantial, durable and clinically meaningful reductions in triglycerides of up to 72% on top of standard of care.
These reductions in triglycerides resulted in the reduction of acute pancreatitis events by up to 91%, making TRYNGOLZA the first and only treatment to achieve this outcome in sHTG. Importantly, 86% of treated patients reduced their mean triglyceride levels below 500 milligrams per deciliter, the threshold that defines sHTG, and up to 54% of patients achieved normal triglyceride levels.
These groundbreaking results, together with our substantial first-mover advantage, position TRYNGOLZA to fundamentally change the treatment paradigm for people with sHTG and become the new standard of care in the management of this disease. Notably, the TRYNGOLZA label includes acute pancreatitis risk reduction in the indication statement, which underscores the importance of preventing these debilitating and potentially fatal attacks and further validates the unprecedented results from our clinical trials.
We received approval for both the 50-milligram and 80-milligram doses administered once monthly, providing physicians with dosing flexibility to tailor treatment based on individual patient needs and treatment goals. This flexibility will resonate well with physicians who manage sHTG patients based on our extensive HCP research.
With the label now in hand, we are reaffirming our full year 2026 guidance of $100 million to $110 million and our peak sales guidance for TRYNGOLZA of greater than $3 billion, positioning TRYNGOLZA to become our first Ionis wholly-owned multibillion-dollar medicine.
Before I turn the call over to Sam, I want to extend my sincere thanks to the patients, families, clinical investigators, advocacy groups and research partners who made this approval possible, especially those who participated in our clinical trials. I also want to recognize the Ionis team whose dedication to patients and commitment to groundbreaking science in the TRYNGOLZA program were essential in achieving today's positive outcome.
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Sam.
Thank you, Brett. Like Brett, I'm very excited with today's approval and what it means for people living with severe hypertriglyceridemia. Severe hypertriglyceridemia, or sHTG, is characterized by markedly elevated triglyceride levels above 500 milligrams per deciliter. These patients are not able to get their triglyceride levels below 500 milligrams per deciliter, which defines the risk threshold for acute pancreatitis despite lifetime modifications and treatment with standard lipid-lowering therapies.
Very high triglyceride levels are a well-recognized cause of acute pancreatitis, a serious and potentially life-threatening condition associated with hospitalization that often need intensive care admission as well as long-term complications that include repeat pancreatitis events and the destruction of pancreatic function.
Traditional triglyceride-lowering treatments such as fibrates and omega-3 fatty acids offer only modest effectiveness and frequently fail to reduce triglycerides to below the threshold for pancreatitis risk. Moreover, none have demonstrated benefit in reducing acute pancreatitis events.
sHTG is estimated to affect more than 3 million people in the U.S., and many of these people have a history of pancreatitis or are at high risk for a first event and often have additional comorbidities such as diabetes or cardiovascular disease. Until TRYNGOLZA's approval, patients and physicians were lack of therapy that could reliably lower triglycerides below the pancreatitis risk threshold. With TRYNGOLZA now approved, we believe that treatment gap is being addressed.
sHTG is driven in large part by dysregulated triglyceride-rich lipoprotein metabolism. Apolipoprotein C-III, or apoC-III, is a key regulator of the system. Elevated apoC-III inhibits lipoprotein lipase, the enzyme that breaks down triglyceride-rich particles, and it also blocks the clearance of these particles from the circulation. We designed TRYNGOLZA to selectively reduce apoC-III production in the liver by targeting apoC-III messenger RNA. We were the first to demonstrate that lowering apoC-III results in substantial reductions in triglycerides and acute pancreatitis events in patients living with severely elevated triglycerides.
Importantly, TRYNGOLZA was also highly effective on top of existing standard of care therapies, such as statins, fibrates and omega-3 fatty acid, adding a distinct and powerful new mechanism for lowering triglycerides. The sHTG approval was based primarily on positive results from the Phase III CORE and CORE2 studies, which evaluated TRYNGOLZA in adults with severe hypertriglyceridemia on stable background therapy in the largest pivotal program ever conducted in this patient population.
Pivotal CORE and CORE2 studies demonstrated substantial and sustained reductions in triglyceride levels of up to 72% compared to placebo at 6 months with sustained reductions at 12 months. Furthermore, 86% of patients treating with TRYNGOLZA achieved triglyceride levels below 500 milligrams per deciliter, a threshold for acute pancreatitis. Notably, up to 54% of patients in this study also achieved normal triglyceride levels.
We saw a remarkable reduction in the rate of pancreatitis events of up to 91% after only 12 months of treatment. In the overall pooled analysis from CORE and CORE2, treating just 20 patients with TRYNGOLZA for 1 year is estimated to prevent 1 potentially fatal pancreatitis attack. In the highest risk group, those with triglycerides above 880 milligrams per deciliter and a history of acute pancreatitis, the number needed to treat to prevent 1 potentially fatal acute pancreatitis attack is only 4 patients after just 12 months of treatment.
Being a number to treat ranging from 4 to 20 or potentially life-threatening about like pancreatitis and achieved in just 1 year is very compelling to physicians, which we believe will provide a sense of urgency to treat patients with TRYNGOLZA. For context, statins used in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease have a number needed to treat in the range of 50 to 100, meaning 50 to 100 patients need to be treated for more than 5 years to prevent 1 cardiovascular event.
TRYNGOLZA demonstrated an overall favorable safety profile in the Phase III studies with adverse events balanced across treatment arms. The most common adverse events were generally mild to moderate and manageable. The most common treatment-emergent events were injection site reactions, which were mostly mild and typically transient. At the 50-milligram dose, there were no imbalances in liver enzyme elevations. Asymptomatic liver enzyme elevations of greater than or equal to 3x the upper limit of normal were observed in 7% of participants treated with the 80-milligram dose versus 2% treated with placebo. These events were not associated with clinical complications, generally resolved with continued treatment and no cases met Hy's Law criteria.
These unprecedented data from the TRYNGOLZA development program, beginning with FCS and now the broader severe hypertriglyceridemia population have also been presented in major cardiology and lipidology congresses and published in leading peer-reviewed medical journals. The level of external validation underscore the scientific rigor and clinical importance of targeting apoC-III in triglyceride-rich disorders. For patients and physicians who have struggled to control severe triglycerides with existing therapies, we believe TRYNGOLZA set a new standard for the management of sHTG.
I'll now turn the call over to Kyle.
Thank you, Sam. The approval of TRYNGOLZA for sHTG is a defining moment in our journey to bring a much needed new medicine to this long underserved patient population. Our team is energized and focused on delivering a successful launch and capitalizing on our first-mover advantage. We have a highly experienced field organization with deep backgrounds in lipidology and cardiometabolic diseases. They have been preparing for this approval over the past several months by providing disease state education to the highest sHTG treaters. In parallel, they have been strengthening patient identification efforts and laying the foundation for a seamless expansion from FCS into sHTG.
We expect the product to be available in the channel in the coming days, and our teams are ready to begin promoting TRYNGOLZA for sHTG. The U.S. market is both sizable and underserved with no effective treatments available until now. As represented by the pyramid shown on this slide, there are estimated to be more than 3 million people with sHTG in the U.S. Triglyceride management is concentrated among cardiologists, endocrinologists and lipidologists, which allows us to reach hundreds of thousands of eligible patients with a focused commercial footprint.
Our customer-facing team plans to initially focus on the high-risk patient population, which includes patients with triglycerides of greater than 880 milligrams per deciliter or with triglycerides of greater than 500 milligrams per deciliter and a history of acute pancreatitis or other comorbidities. With our commercial footprint, we are positioned to engage approximately 20,000 high-volume prescribers across the country. As we did for FCS, we also plan to leverage Ionis' omnichannel marketing capabilities to further reach both physicians and patients with tailored educational content and support.
Despite widespread use of statins, fibrates and omega-3s, many patients do not reach triglyceride targets and remain at high risk for pancreatitis. This treatment gap is well recognized by physicians and payers. Consistent with the label, TRYNGOLZA's compelling clinical profile and differentiated mechanism position it to play an important role alongside existing therapies to reduce the risk of acute pancreatitis.
Until today, physicians have not had an effective therapy for severe hypertriglyceridemia. TRYNGOLZA changes that. It has demonstrated robust triglyceride lowering, statistically significant reduction in acute pancreatitis events, a compelling number needed to treat to prevent acute pancreatitis. We are pleased to offer both the 50-milligram and 80-milligram doses of TRYNGOLZA for sHTG packaged in a patient-friendly auto-injector designed for real-world use. This provides important flexibility for health care providers and patients and supports a tailored approach to treatment based on individual patient needs and treatment goals.
Taken together, we believe TRYNGOLZA is a breakthrough for patients who are struggling with their disease and a meaningful advancement for physicians managing this high-risk population. Our launch strategy is designed for success and builds on our expanding commercial capabilities with 2 successful launches under our belt, including the launch of TRYNGOLZA in FCS. A key component of this strategy is our medical affairs effort with the team actively participating in major cardiology, endocrinology and lipid meetings to share data from CORE, CORE2 and related studies while also helping educate the market on apoC-III biology and the burden of sHTG.
On the market access front, our reimbursement and payer teams have proactively engaged with U.S. payers. With the updated WACC price of $40,000 effective April 1, we are launching TRYNGOLZA and sHTG at a price that reflects its substantial clinical value and the high burden of disease while recognizing the need for broad responsible access. We are committed to ensuring affordability for patients who need TRYNGOLZA. For eligible commercially insured patients, our financial assistance programs can significantly reduce out-of-pocket costs, in some cases, to as little as $0 per prescription.
Supporting patients throughout their treatment journey is central to our commercial approach. Ionis Every Step, our patient support program, will now be expanded to support the needs of sHTG patients and caregivers throughout their treatment journey. The program is designed to provide disease state and product education, meaningful caregiver support and reimbursement assistance that helps facilitate access and continuity of care. For health care providers, Ionis Every Step is intended to simplify the process of initiating therapy for appropriate patients while keeping the emphasis where it belongs on helping patients better understand their disease, navigate treatment options and access the support they need.
Before I turn the call back to Brett, I want to underscore our excitement about this approval and the opportunity it creates to meaningfully improve outcomes for people living with severe hypertriglyceridemia. While we recognize that building awareness and changing treatment paradigms by integrating a new therapy into clinical practice will take time, we are highly encouraged by the HCP feedback and the opportunity to address the significant unmet need in sHTG.
TRYNGOLZA's strong clinical profile and compelling label, including the significance of acute pancreatitis prevention in the indication statement, together with an experienced commercial organization that is launch-ready, position us to seamlessly execute. Most importantly, this helps us close an important gap in care for appropriate patients. More broadly, we believe this launch creates an important opportunity to expand the impact of TRYNGOLZA by bringing meaningful innovation to a larger population of patients with serious unmet need.
With that, I'll turn the call back over to Brett.
Thanks, Kyle. Today marks a pivotal moment for Ionis. With today's approval, we are poised to reach hundreds of thousands of people living with sHTG, and in turn, make TRYNGOLZA our first potential blockbuster medicine. Today's milestone underscores how we are delivering on our promise to bring a steady cadence of transformational medicines to people living with serious diseases.
In just the last 18 months, we have successfully launched TRYNGOLZA for FCS, our first independently launched commercial medicine. We have also successfully launched DAWNZERA in hereditary angioedema, which is gaining significant momentum. And now, we're expanding TRYNGOLZA into sHTG, our first independent launch into a broad population. We also look forward to our anticipated approval of Zilganersen for Alexander disease with a PDUFA date in September and advancing our rich, wholly-owned pipeline of potential best-in-class medicines focused primarily on cardiometabolic and neurological diseases.
The approval of TRYNGOLZA in sHTG underscores the strength of Ionis today. With 2 independent launches underway, TRYNGOLZA in sHTG expected to launch in the coming days and with more anticipated approvals and launches to come, we are well-positioned to deliver increasing value for patients and all Ionis stakeholders.
And with that, I'll now open the call up for questions. Given the importance of today's news, we will keep the Q&A session focused entirely on TRYNGOLZA.
Now, operator, please open up for questions.
[Operator Instructions] And your first question will be from Yaron Werber at TD Cowen.
2. Question Answer
This is Steven Ionov on for Yaron Werber. Congratulations on this landmark approval. One question from us. Could you give us some more color on where the conversations with payers currently stand on coverage? And specifically, are you expecting payers to try to narrow coverage to patients with an AP, acute pancreatitis, history? Or have you seen positive feedback on a more broad label across the board?
Thanks for the question, Steven. This is Kyle. I couldn't be more pleased with the interactions that we've had with payers up to this point. We've been able to share with them, obviously, information related to the CORE and CORE2 studies. They've also seen HCP demand research on where HCPs anticipate using this treatment. And the expectation is that the coverage will be broad and that anyone with triglyceride levels above 500 will have access to TRYNGOLZA.
We're working on payer discussions currently, as you would expect, to getting the approval today. We'll need to go with the final label and have ongoing discussions with them. But all of our conversations have been for the broad population being greater than 500. That also represents the pricing that we set on April 1 at $40,000 for the WACC. That price point is intended to cover all patients and not limit it or restrict it to a high-risk sHTG patient population. That's exactly where HCPs are telling us that they want to treat and use this product based on the strength of the data.
The 72% reductions in triglycerides, the 91% reduction in AP events and the ability to use this on top of standard of care today really make this a meaningful treatment to potentially change and advance the way that medicine is treated for these patients that haven't had a treatment up to this time. So broad payer access is what we expect, and those are the ongoing conversations we continue to have.
Next question will be from Yanan Zhu at Wells Fargo.
Congrats on the early approval and the great label. So maybe 2 questions from us. One is in terms of -- on the front page, the only warnings mentioned was the liver enzyme abnormalities. I think you went over it in the prepared remarks as well. I was wondering how do we think about any implication of this item in terms of the launch? Does this mean certain monitoring requirements?
And then, another observation, you mentioned 91% risk reduction for the pancreatitis attacks, that actually -- it came from the 50 mg group. So it seems like you had even a better pancreatitis reduction at the lower dose than the 80 mg higher dose. How does that impact your launch activity or promotion activity? I would note that at that dose, the safety is overall even better than 80 mg, including liver fat.
Thanks, Yanan. I'll start, and then, I'll pass over to Sam. I'd love for him to give his perspective on the recommendation to consider testing for liver enzymes prior to treating -- beginning treatment with TRYNGOLZA or escalating dose because it's very common practice in the business. But let me start with your second question first. So the 91% reduction in acute pancreatitis was called out by the FDA, the AP reductions of 91% for the 50-milligram dose, as you pointed out, Yanan, we were thrilled with the 85% reduction in the pooled analysis, of course, an AP reduction unprecedented. The 91% in the 50-milligram dose, we just want to be consistent with the label, which reflects up to 91% in there.
As for the reasons between 80 and 50 showing slightly different reductions in acute pancreatitis on a percentage basis, we don't have an explanation for that. It's remarkable data for both doses, and we do not believe that that's going to impact in any way the preference for 50 or 80 milligrams in the launch in the marketing commercialization of TRYNGOLZA for sHTG in any way. I do want to point out that the 80-milligram dose is very well tolerated. And as we highlighted in our prepared remarks, it provides dosing flexibility for physicians, which is common practice and also preference so that patients can -- or physicians can use the dose that they believe is going to provide the greatest benefit depending on the patient's needs.
Regarding the second part of your question, no monitoring. There's no monitoring in this label required for anything, let alone liver enzymes. But I'd like to send it over to Sam to provide his perspective on how this is so consistent with available treatments today for cardiovascular diseases.
Yes. I think what the label is basically saying is you just need to make sure you're a good doctor, right? If you give a chronic therapy, you need to know their baseline values of their labs, including the liver test. And if you want to change the dose, then you just check it again. So it just tells you why you should check it once before you start and if you want to change the dose, that's it, and you don't need to worry in between about checking regular labs all the time. So this is consistent with good medical care and nothing out of the ordinary in terms of checking LFTs.
And Yanan, maybe I can address a little bit on the launch implications here because all of them are favorable, everything that we're discussing here. To have AP in the indication statement, number one, is going to strengthen the position and strengthen the understanding by HCPs in terms of how and why to use this treatment for sHTG patients, any patient that's above 500. So that strengthens the argument there.
Number two, the 50- and 80-milligram doses allow for dosing flexibility, which is exactly what HCPs are telling us that they want and that they will use in this patient population. Therefore, again, strengthening the launch implications. No monitoring required strengthens the launch implications. So for us, everything is pointed towards very strong favorability in terms of what this label looks like and it represents.
Next question will be from Salveen Richter at Goldman Sachs.
With regard to liver monitoring, could you just speak to how it's done in practice, how much of an extra lift this is and whether you think doctors will actually do that? And then, just noting the label's language around liver fat, what feedback have you been getting from stakeholders on the open-label extension data? And why do you believe the 50-milligram to 80-milligram transition patients saw that kind of elevation or did not see the decreases in their HFF elevations within the follow-up?
So Salveen, as we addressed in the last question, there's no monitoring required at all for anything -- liver enzymes or anything for TRYNGOLZA. It's a very clean label. As Sam pointed out, it's common practice by physicians when they move a patient onto a new treatment for the first time to do some -- to recommend some initial testing of liver enzymes or you don't have to continue testing in any way. And prior to a dose escalation, it's recommended, not required to consider testing again before you dose escalate. Again, no monitoring, no monitoring at all in the label for TRYNGOLZA.
As far as hepatic fat fraction, as we presented at NLA last week and as predicted, the on-target small increases in liver fat that we observed in our Phase III sHTG studies are returning to baseline as we presented at NLA last week. Again, there's no clinical sequelae, no emerging AEs with long-term treatment, no -- obviously, no monitoring, as I covered. And this profile that includes the small increases of what appeared to be transient increases in liver fat are completely consistent with our $3 billion product sales -- peak sales that we've guided to. Maybe you can talk a little bit about that, Kyle, on how all this is contained within our -- with our expectation for peak product sales.
Yes, that's exactly right. I mean, we have tested after the CORE and CORE2 data came out, the exact profile from the Phase III trial, these data with HCPs. They are very supportive. They are -- they do not have concerns around hepatic fat, for example, or needing to consider testing for something like liver enzymes.
The strength of the data here, the need in the patient population, how clean overall this profile is and how strong the data are, HCPs and the demand research are very supportive of using this drug. We did the same presentation to payers, similar response, payers understand it and payers are very accepting of this. I think we are set up for tremendous success based on the label that we received today.
And Sam, maybe you want to comment on how it's common practice to have when you have 2 doses approved starting with a 50-milligram dose or the lower dose before you go to dose escalate.
Sure. Yes, we're used to using different doses for lipid-lowering therapy. So this is going to be completely consistent in practice how we use statins, right? So it's going to be very similar, almost identical to it. Before you start a statin, you need to know what the lipid levels are and what the labs are. And then, after you give it, you want to see what effect it has. So you'll check labs again, and you'll check the liver test and you'll check the lipid panel. That's basically what's going to happen here. I think clinicians will be very used to doing exactly what they do now with statin. There's not going to be any other extra burden on anybody.
Next question will be from Michael at Morgan Stanley.
Congrats on the approval as well. Maybe just a quick one around pricing, and it has to do with the addition of the 50-milligram dose in addition to the current 80-milligram dose. Just to clarify, is it going to be flat pricing across both those doses?
Yes. Thanks for the question, Mike. It will be flat pricing. So from a payer standpoint, again, all of the testing that we've done and the conversations that we've had with them around utilization management criteria, WACC pricing, et cetera, they've been very supportive of that. And I think flat pricing, 50 and 80 just helps us even more with payers and streamline access ultimately for HCPs to prescribe and patients to receive an appropriate medication.
Next question will be from Jessica Fye at JPMorgan.
This is [ Sylvia ] on for Jeff Fye. Two questions from me. First, can you talk about how the label compares to your expectations?
And my second question is, can you remind us of how you think about the size of the subgroups in the high-risk sHTG population, so those with AP history and NG without as well as any differences to how you may approach these subgroups commercially?
Yes. Kyle will address the -- how we're planning to address the various subsegments of the sHTG population commercially. With respect to label expectations, we were hopeful to have acute pancreatitis in the label based on the compelling data that we generated from our Phase III CORE and CORE2 studies. It is highly unusual to include an outcome like acute pancreatitis in the indication state when it's not a primary endpoint in the trial. It was a key secondary endpoint in our trial, but we were hopeful, and we achieved it. And that really reflects the compelling and importance of the data that we generate showing that or potentially significantly we can prevent potentially fatal acute pancreatitis attacks in sHTG patients for the first time ever for any medicine. So I think the FDA got it, and they recognized the importance of this, and they wanted it in the label because it's to the benefit of patients. And so physicians get their attention and they prescribe.
Talk a little bit about segments in the population.
Sure. Yes. The overall population, as we have been discussing, is greater than 3 million patients. The high-risk sHTG population has approximately 50,000 patients that are over 500 with a history of AP. There are approximately 550,000 patients that are over 880, and there are several hundred thousand -- 400,000-plus patients that are over 500 with comorbidities, such as ASCVD or type 2 diabetes that could potentially be well controlled, but still be above 500 with their triglyceride levels and be at high risk for acute pancreatitis. So out of the gates, that's where the focus will be. Obviously, the highest risk patients and the urgency to treat those patients.
HCPs are largely aware of who these patients are. They're trying to treat them today with omega-3s and fibrates and other triglyceride-lowering agents that just are suboptimal and not effective enough to get the patients out of harm's way. And we know from the core studies that by adding TRYNGOLZA on to those patients that you can have up to 72% reductions in addition to that in their triglyceride levels. So this fits in very nicely with a number of patients that the HCPs are seeing and treating today and need a better therapy to address them. And we believe that TRYNGOLZA is going to be that therapy to be able to step in and help them. And it's very nice to have a first-mover advantage here as well, where we're going to be able to have access to this very broad prevalent patient population with no competitor directly working against us at this point.
Next question will be from Jason Gerberry at Bank of America.
Kyle, curious, what do you think are the most important distinctions relative to the Vascepa launch in sHTG? Why couldn't TRYNGOLZA sort of have a similar sort of patient level demand in the first few quarters? Has it just come down to a simple oral versus injectable barrier to entry? Do you think it's payer related? I'm just kind of curious if you can offer some perspective there.
And then secondly, it appears like some health care providers who are intimately familiar with CORE talk about having an early bolus of patients. But these could just be a small subset perhaps of early adopters. And so I guess -- I know you guys have been asked this question before, but what would be your expectation for the proportion of doctors that have an early bolus of patients? And is really the challenge there just pulling those patients through under medical exceptions in the first few quarters?
Yes. Thanks, Jason. So a couple of things on this launch. We believe with TRYNGOLZA, this is -- I'm describing it as a moderate launch at this point. That is based on -- this is a new therapy, new class of therapy. We're going to a very broad number of HCPs, greater than 20,000 HCPs. So educating those HCPs on the label, the product, where to use, why to use, et cetera, will take a little bit of time.
Number two, these are patients that typically see their HCP 1 to 2 times per year. So they're not just coming in on a monthly basis to see their HCP. So there are a little bit of that dynamic in terms of getting these patients in to be, again, assessed and diagnosed and then receive their prescription.
And then the third thing that you mentioned is part of this as well, which is the payer dynamic. We know out of the gate based on the fact that this is a new indication for a product that payers will need to go through the P&T process and make decisions around the coverage criteria for these patients. So it will take a little bit of time for us to navigate that, and there will be medical exceptions that will be in place for a period of time. However, the work that we've done leading up to this, we believe, is going to help us streamline that process, but we still have to fit that into the process that each individual payer takes as it relates to assessing a new indication for a product. So those are the dynamics there. We're very encouraged. We'll learn more in the second half of this year. And I think 2027, you'll see obviously, acceleration as we get into the new year and more experience comes from using the product.
In terms of the bolus of patients, we're working through that right now. We know from the data where -- which HCPs are using high volumes of omega-3s and fibrates today. That kind of puts you in the general vicinity of who's treating patients with high triglycerides to begin with. But then you've got to get in there, again, and educate on the product and then talk to them about that patient population to see who is potentially still eligible to take the drug and still above 500, for example. So we are doing that currently, and the launch team is ready to execute against that now that we have the approval, and we can speak directly to the label, and we can compliantly sell for sHTG in the broad patient population. So I think a lot more to learn here over the next couple of months, but I am super excited about the label, and I know the sales team is ready to get out there and help as many patients as possible.
And I'll just add very quickly, Jason. We don't believe Vascepa is a good analog for TRYNGOLZA in any way. I mean, there's differences in administration, as you mentioned, the efficacy that we have reported that's in our label now on TG reductions and AP reductions is unprecedented. It's never been shown for that medicine. So we don't -- we just don't think it's a good analog for several different reasons.
Next question will be from Jasmine Fels at Barclays.
This is Jasmine on for Ellie Merle from Barclays. Congratulations. So first, what kind of launch metrics should we expect you to give in the initial quarters of the launch?
And then second, do you have a plan to give free drug to patients who are working to secure access but haven't yet?
Yes. Great question, Jasmine. Thank you for that. So for launch metrics, I think the most important one is going to be -- is quarterly revenues. We will share how the product is performing on a quarterly basis and what the revenues look like during our earnings calls. We will give some color probably around HCP specialties, who is prescribing and what that mix looks like, payer dynamics and how coverage is coming along, et cetera. I don't anticipate, consistent with the FCS and our HAE launch, going far beyond that in terms of how many HCPs are prescribing or how many patients are receiving prescriptions yet. It is a competitive space. And I think some of those metrics we'll probably keep in-house for our own knowledge and make decisions around that.
In terms of free product, we will offer the typical programs that you would expect for this type of treatment. So there will be a quick start program, and patients who are navigating the reimbursement process, there will be drug available for them while they're working through the prior authorizations that might be required in order to get patients started on treatment.
Next question will be from Gary Nachman at Canaccord Genuity.
My congrats as well on the early approval. With this first approval in severe high trigs, how soon can the guidelines be updated for this indication? And how much will that help you in this market, both with physicians and payers? Is that even needed here? And just remind us where you are in terms of the full sales force that's in place for the launch, the size and experience? And any more hirings that need to occur, especially given the broad label?
Thank you, Gary. Sam, what do you think about guidelines?
Yes. So guidelines, there are a lot of different guidelines, ACC/AHA, Canadian, European. So it depends on the timing when that group is meeting. So we anticipate whenever a new guideline comes out, this has to be on there. I mean, this is unprecedented data. And so I'm sure it's going to be a Class I indication as best as I can tell based on the label and the data that we got. But it will depend on the geographic flow in terms of which guidelines. So just recently, we did have the ACC/AHA guidelines just get updated, olezarsen to get a recommendation for FCS -- sorry, yes, TRYNGOLZA. So that one may be a little bit delayed when they do the next one. But sometimes they also have to give updates. When something really cool happens, they need to be able to keep up with the times. So we'll see. We anticipate this going in all the guidelines eventually, though, when they get updated.
Before handing over to you, Kyle, I do want to highlight something that you said, Sam. TRYNGOLZA is the only approved, recommended medicine in the guidelines for FCS today. That's a huge step forward for TRYNGOLZA, and we're hopeful that we're going to get a similar -- that will also be reflected for sHTG as quickly as possible.
Impact tailwinds for the launch and then on sales force?
Yes. And let me just add to what Sam said for a second. There are guidelines in place today that reflect the 500 milligram per deciliter threshold for acute pancreatitis. And we've been using those already, both cardiology and endocrinology have those guidelines. So in terms of being able to help us with HCPs and payers, I think we have very strong evidence today and very strong supporting guidelines to be able to do what we need to, to communicate the message and the story and the value that this treatment offers. And there's also a very strong understanding from HCPs of that 500 milligram per deciliter threshold, right?
If they've seen a patient that has had an AP event, they never want to see that patient have another event, and they also never want to see any of their patients above 500 have their first event. And these guidelines help that, but also the evidence and the experience of these HCPs is helping drive that understanding.
The field force size today, we did an expansion at the very beginning of this year. There are approximately 200 customer-facing field team members in place right now. That is a specialty-sized launch field force. It's exactly where we need to be to reach the audience of the highest treaters of sHTG being the endocrinologists, cardiologists and lipidologists. So right now, I think we've got the right size, the right team and the right strategy in place in order to go forward with the launch.
Next question will be from Luca Issi at RBC Capital Markets.
This is [ Cathy ] for Luca and adding our congrats on an extremely strong label. A quick follow-up on the 50 mg dose seeing 91% acute pancreatitis event reduction. Did you maybe also see more patients in the 50 mg cohort to have trig normalized?
And then separately, Kyle, in the same spirit of prior questions asked on the launch and the bolus demand, but looking more longer term, how should we draw our launch curve to look like? What you would anticipate to reach the 1 million versus 3 million patient segment? And specifically, what are some potential scenarios where you would see competition to be more intense than you expect in a year or so?
Sam, anything in the baseline demographics that could explain a slightly better AP rate in 50 milligram versus 80 milligram?
We look -- there's nothing really that we can explain this. This is, of course, pool data from both trials. There were some differences in the trials in terms of slightly different triglyceride levels, geographic location. But the drug was -- both doses were highly effective. So we're talking about differences, but in the very high range, right, in the mid-80s is on average. So no, I can't say that we found anything obvious. It could be just a play of chance. So there's nothing I think that can explain it right now that we found.
Yes. And let me talk a little bit about the patient populations. Obviously, I mentioned starting with the 1 million or so high-risk sHTG patients, which, by the way, is a very large patient population that's very underserved that has tremendous need for a treatment like this. That will give us runway for a couple of years in terms of being able to penetrate and work within that existing 1 million patient population or so.
To go from 1 million to 3 million, you start getting into patients that are largely in the 500 to 880 range. A lot of those patients are treated in a different care setting, either internal medicine or primary care. So that will take a little bit more work to educate and bring forward a novel therapy like this and educate that audience in terms of why to treat and how to treat that patient population. We'll be able to do that in parallel, as we're launching into this 1 million patient population.
I made reference to our omnichannel marketing capabilities, for example, we can do things that are very efficient and very targeted to help address some of that education and drive disease state awareness to the broader HCP treating community. So we will obviously do that.
And you mentioned competition as well. We know what's coming up behind us. And I think having more than one share of voice in this space is not a bad thing. When we're going to conferences right now, we're seeing multiple podium presentations on triglycerides, the importance of treating triglycerides, what levels should you treat, why should you be treating, et cetera. Share of voice, I think, is just going to elevate the entire market. And we do believe that we're in a great position to continue to get this launch off to a great start and make things happen.
Next question will be from Mitchell Kapoor at H.C. Wainwright.
This is [ Manav ] for Mitchell. Congrats on the approval and strong label. Just a few questions on the TRYNGOLZA. So do you expect it will be used mostly as an add-on after fibrates and omega-3s? Or could it move earlier for appropriate patients? And do you expect payers based on your conversations to require prior use or inadequate response to fibrates? And in your conversations with physicians, is TRYNGOLZA to be layered on top of legacy triglyceride-lowering therapy indefinitely? Or should physicians deescalate those agents once patients get below the 500 mg level?
Thank you for the question. I'd like to give you a medical perspective on that as well as a commercial perspective on that. It's a very important question.
Thanks. This is Sam. First, we designed our trials for this to get an add-on therapy. So the data that you're seeing is actually on top of fibrates or omega-3 fatty acids. In fact, in our trials, over 80% of patients were on statins, 70% or so were on fibrates, 33% were on omega-3 fatty acids. So the results that you're seeing are on top. Now, the patients are coming in with high triglycerides despite treatment of all those. And so this is really meant to be on top of standard of care. Now, what that standard of care may differ among some patients. Right now, we don't know how it's going to pan out in the community, but we have to have some patients have dramatic responses. So the 70% reduction is mean, but we have some patients have over 90%. So there, the physicians may need to kind of tweak their meds around a little bit and figure out where one is optimal.
So there could be some management of the medication depending on the responses. But really, our data is on top of everything that the patients still need for their care. I think that's where the initial focus will be. How that pans out later, we'll have to see. One thing to keep in mind is that physicians have not seen this kind of reduction in any lipid-lowering therapy, not just with this drug. But when you give a statin, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60% if you're lucky. Here, we're going to be getting 60%, 70%, 80%. They're going to be shocked how effective this drug is, I think. And there's going to be some recalibration about concomitant therapies. But we're not in a position right now to be able to answer your question until we get some further experience.
In other words, although our clinical trials were on top of standard of care, physicians that manage these patients today are fully aware of the marginal decreases in triglycerides that they can achieve with existing therapies. So they're going to be very enthusiastic to move to TRYNGOLZA as quickly as possible.
Absolutely.
Yes. Yes.
Once they see the results, it's going to make a bigger impact in their practice, and they'll find these patients because up to now, there wasn't anything they could even treat. They would give a drug, and they would get a triglyceride from 800 to 600, and it's very unsatisfying. Now, they're going to have a real potent therapy.
Right. And it's not a requirement in the label to be treated with anything prior to TRYNGOLZA for sHTG, but there's a commercial perspective, too.
Yes, absolutely. So on the payer dynamics, and as I said, we've been having these conversations for quite a while with payers. They typically take 2 steps. The first step is what is your indication statement, right, which this indication statement is so strong with the inclusion of all patients greater than 500 as well as having the inclusion of to reduce AP events, it's just telling us that from a payer standpoint, that's going to hopefully provide broad access as we work on those negotiations, and I would expect it to do so.
Then, there's the utilization management criteria, which is the second step. And for that step, what we would expect is the coverage to be consistent with what the clinical trial represented, which is exactly what Sam just said. So on some sort of background triglyceride-lowering therapy for a period of time, and then, they should be eligible to go directly on to TRYNGOLZA at that point.
Got it. If I can just follow up real quick on the competition question that came up earlier, as we think about the competition, is your view that the bar is now acute pancreatitis reduction on top of triglycerides lowering? And given the label and data you have shown, what would a competitor need to show to change your view of the $3 billion U.S. opportunity?
So we're not focused on competition. We're focused on TRYNGOLZA and the upcoming launch and to maximize value for patients and for all our shareholders. That's where we're focused on. Certainly, the data we presented, including acute pancreatitis is an unprecedented very high bar with respect to efficacy as it is on safety and tolerability. So we love our profile. But as Kyle mentioned before, having multiple players in this open green space where the unmet need is so large, just expands the share of voice, which can help everybody. And that's really where our view on that.
Next question is from Jay Olson at Oppenheimer.
Congrats on the early approval and solid label. How quickly do you expect TRYNGOLZA adoption in sHTG to move beyond lipid specialists into broader prescriber bases? And do you think sHTG treatment goals may eventually come down now that there's finally an effective treatment available just as we've seen with LDL cholesterol?
Why don't you take the first part of that question, Kyle?
Yes. So I think out of the gates here, the focus really is on the specialists, as I mentioned. That's where the highest volume of patients are being treated today. It's where the highest risk patients are being seen. It's where you're seeing the highest volumes of other triglyceride-lowering agents be prescribed because of the patient population that I just mentioned. So it's definitely going to start there. But I believe this is going to start to bleed out fairly quickly.
I think Sam's comment about once you start to get experience using TRYNGOLZA and you see the magnitude of effect and reductions in triglycerides, number one, those HCPs that I just referenced that are specialists will begin using it more broadly than just their high-risk patients, and we believe that will happen fairly quickly over time as they gain that experience.
And then the second thing is it will bleed out into the community. Whenever some of these patients go back to see their primary care physician or internal medicine physician and they're on TRYNGOLZA and that physician starts to see the response that these patients are getting, that will help, right? You start with the top of the pyramid and work your way down. That will help, I think, instill that broad education and awareness about the product. So it will happen over time, and we're going to do everything we can to support that through our other tactics and means that we have available to us.
Treatment goals?
Yes. Treatment goals, I don't think we're ready for something like with LDL, it has to be under 55 or 70 yet, but we're close. What I think you're going to see, as the guidelines evolve, right now, as Kyle said, they're more like check triglycerides or XYZ, pay attention to the patient. And now what they're going to say is exactly what's in the label. If somebody is over 500, your drug will be indicated as a Class I, let's say, to reduce the risk of pancreatitis. So there'll be that much more firm now, I think, level of which you should treat and what you would expect to get out of that treatment, which is pancreatitis. How low it'll go beyond that? I think at this point, under 500 is perfectly fine because that's where the pancreatitis risk is. Whether it goes lower than that, I doubt it. Based on these data, it's really pancreatitis focused. But as the field evolves, we might see some -- give some numbers that's close to target.
Next question will be from Eric Joseph at Citigroup.
Let me add my congrats on the expanded label. It seems like there are a couple of new data points in the label versus prior publications, specifically ApOB-48, and also, the month 1, fasting TG declines. Can you talk a little bit about the intent behind the inclusion and how they might resonate with clinicians?
And then just on the commercial side, I wonder if you could speak to where -- sort of the lead time to where you might achieve coverage -- the conclusion of coverage reviews for say like a milestone of greater than 80% of covered lives? And what the lead time is like for medical exemption as will be sort of has to be leveraged near term?
Before we go to you, Kyle, Sam, thoughts on ApoB-48.
Yes. So clinicians focus on the typical lipid panel, right? That includes total cholesterol, LDL, triglycerides, HDL and LDL. And so that's what they're going to be using clinically to help them. So it's going to be basically triglycerides. The ApoB-48 is important because that's where the chylomicrons are, and this is a chylomicronemic population. So as you see here, it's elevated.
By having ApoB-48 in the label, it's going to tell us basically that we're targeting the right particles that are triglyceride rich. And there's a marked reduction in ApoB-48, right, 76%. So this goes along with the drug is doing what it's supposed to, it's targeting the particles that cause pancreatitis. So that's going to resonate very well.
And the rest of the question about timing, these drugs are not giving daily, right? So there has to be some steady state to reach before you expect the full effect. And that's seen in the curves, I think, that you saw in the label. So there's nothing unusual there from that perspective in terms of what the clinician might anticipate.
Right. We have a fast onset of action, and that's highlighted in the label where triglycerides are coming down at the first time in which we've measured, which is at 1 month after starting. But we do encourage and support the label with respect to testing after 3 months when we're at steady state, where a physician can actually see the maximum efficacy that TRYNGOLZA offers on triglycerides and make decisions on whether to -- for example, whether they want to dose escalate at that point.
Kyle?
Yes. As it relates to payers and the process in terms of getting coverage and access in place, I think this is going to be very consistent with what you've seen with other products that have a new indication. The indication is there. We have first-mover advantage. There's no other treatment out there that's able to do what TRYNGOLZA is now labeled and approved to do. So we do believe that this is going to accelerate the review process with some payers, but the payers are still going to have to fit us into their P&T review processes. So I would expect the first 3 to 6 months, the payers to start to come on board.
As I mentioned in my earlier remarks, starting next year in 2027, I would expect that to accelerate even more broadly. And the expectation is that we've got coverage of all patients above 500 regardless of -- if they're high risk or not. And coverage the label, as I described earlier, in terms of consistent with the clinical trial design is exactly what we expect for payer coverage. So access will happen. We're at the mercy of the payers, but we're working very closely with them in order to open that up and make sure that HCPs can prescribe for the patients they want to treat and patients obviously can benefit from a tremendous therapy that was approved today.
Thanks, Eric. And I think we have time for one last question.
And our last question comes from Myles Minter at William Blair.
Congrats on the approval here. It's great to see. I completely get the messaging about treating patients and getting them below 500 mg per deciliter and reducing the AP risk as per label. What's your messaging to clinicians on how to sort of combat that LDL-C increase? Is that an issue at all? Do you just expect patients to up titrate on statins? Maybe you can explain to me how it's done in FCS currently and if there's any parallels that's going on with this broader population. Congrats again.
Thank you, Myles. I'm going to ask Sam to comment on the biology and from a clinical perspective and everything.
Yes. Thank you, Myles. The best way to characterize these patients, both with FCS and sHTG is that because a lot of their cholesterol is on larger particles, chylomicrons, LDL, their LDL is suppressed. So FCS, LDLs are 50 and that continued to 60. So they're kind of recalibrating back to where they would have gone if the patient didn't have a triglyceride disorder. In this case, we correct the triglyceride disorder. So you're right, there is a small increase in the LDL, but it's in the normal range essentially, and it's recalibrating. It's very easy to treat that with just adjusting their LDL medications. So it's not a clinical issue. Clinicians are not going to be concerned if somebody goes from, say, 50 to 65. That's not really a problem. And so the bottom line is it's consistent with the pathophysiology. It's easily to manage, and we don't see this as a major issue at all, even a minor issue for managing these patients.
Any commercial perspective?
Yes. I'll just mention on the FCS side, this is -- it's not been a sticking point. It's not been a major question or concern. It's been manageable as Sam just mentioned. But in the FCS space, it's not been an issue. I'll also add that we've tested this profile very broadly with CORE and CORE2 data in its totality with HCPs. HCPs are aware of the data, and that's -- it's not really coming up as something that they're concerned about. They're more concerned about being over 500 risk of AP and the strength of the data that's represented in the label.
Thanks, Myles. Appreciate the question, and thanks to everybody again for joining us on today's important news. The approval of TRYNGOLZA in sHTG is a major step forward for patients and an important milestone in Ionis' evolution as a fully integrated biotechnology company, something we're incredibly proud of. We look forward to updating you all on our launch progress and our momentum as we advance our pipeline, bring additional transformational medicines to patients around the world. So thanks again, everybody, for joining. Have a great day.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending. And at this time, we do ask that you please disconnect your lines.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Special Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Ionis erhält FDA‑Zulassung für TRYNGOLZA in sHTG, startet den US‑Launch mit breiter Indikation und bestätigt 2026‑Guidance.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: TRYNGOLZA ist das erste zugelassene Medikament, das sowohl Triglyzeride senkt als auch das Risiko akuter Pankreatitis (AP) bei schwerer Hypertriglyceridämie (sHTG) reduziert; Label nennt AP‑Risikoreduktion explizit und stellt Ionis als kommerziell operierendes Biotech-Unternehmen dar.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Wirkprofil: Phase‑III‑Daten zeigten bis zu 72% TG‑Reduktion und bis zu 91% AP‑Reduktion (50 mg); 86% erreichten TG<500 mg/dl, bis zu 54% normale Werte.
- Kommerzstrategie: Launchfokus auf Kardiologen, Endokrinologen, Lipidologen; ~200 Außendienst‑Mitarbeiter, Omnichannel‑Marketing und „Ionis Every Step“ Patientenprogramm.
- Preis & Zugang: WACC‑Preis $40.000 (ab 1.4.), finanzielle Hilfen für Versicherte und aktive Gespräche mit Payern mit Erwartung auf breite Abdeckung ≥500 mg/dl.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Neue Datenpunkte: Label enthält frühe Wirkung (Monat 1), ApoB‑48‑Reduktion und NNT (Number Needed to Treat) von ~4–20 zur Verhinderung einer potenziell fatalen AP innerhalb 1 Jahr.
- Guidance: 2026‑Umsatzbestätigung $100–110M; Peak‑Sales weiter >$3 Mrd. Produkt soll in Tagen verfügbar sein.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Payer & Zugang: Analysten fragten nach Einschränkungen durch Payer; Management erwartet breite Deckung für TG>500 mg/dl, P&T‑Prozesse dauern aber 3–6 Monate.
- Sicherheit & Monitoring: Diskussion um Leberenzyme (80 mg: 7% vs 2% Placebo ≥3x ULN); Label verlangt kein routinemäßiges Monitoring, Empfehlung: Ausgangswerte vor Behandlungsstart/bei Dosiswechsel.
- Launch‑Tempo: Fragen zu Bolus‑Patienten, Vergleich zu Vascepa und zur Ausweitung von Spezialisten auf Primärversorgung; Management erwartet moderaten Start, Beschleunigung 2027.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Zulassung reduziert klinisches Risiko und markiert wesentliche De‑Risking‑Phase für Ionis: bestätigt Guidance, schafft Launch‑Momentum und begründet das >$3 Mrd. Szenario. Hauptrisiken bleiben Payer‑Timing, praktische Umsetzung der Verordnung und die Management‑Execution beim Rollout.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Great. Good morning, everyone. Thank you so much for joining us. It's my pleasure to introduce Ionis. And with us, we have Brett Monia, CEO.
Brett, thank you for being here.
Pleasure, Salveen, and great to be here.
So to start here, you've laid out a transition to a more balanced portfolio in terms of your wholly owned and partnered programs and now have independent launches as well as several wholly owned pipeline programs.
Could you just start with discussing how you've executed on the transition and your key priorities as you look to the outlook into the end of this decade?
Yes, happy to. So we are going through a transition evolution. Really, it's the product of a vision that I laid out when I moved into this role as CEO in January of 2020. Really focused on 2 key objectives. The first was to expand and diversify our technology, really advance new chemistries for antisense technology to expand into siRNA technology using Ionis know-how, even some gene editing, really genetic medicine. And that wasn't as big a lift as you might think because we have an outstanding research organization. And really what I needed to do is unleash the hounds, if you will, and we're all over. We have our first new chemistries for ASOs in the clinic, siRNAs in the clinic. We're moving forward with gene editing and so on.
The second objective was a big lift, and that was to move Ionis from an R&D organization. And when I say D, I mean like early stage development, which partnered all of our programs to a fully integrated commercial stage biotech company. That was obviously -- there was a lot to do there. We had -- all of our programs are partnered so we had to build our wholly owned pipeline. A -- In 2 therapeutic areas, cardiometabolic, [Audio Gap] 2 areas, we have a proven track record to build our medical team, build our commercial organization, and we wanted to do this to really drive value for the company to retain the value that we created in drug discovery, but also to control our own destiny, right, move at our pace and not rely on partners so much.
I'm proud to say that we've achieved this. It's still early days, but we've had a great deal of success. Last year, we launched our first 2 products, wholly owned products, TRYNGOLZA for familial chylomicronemia syndrome. That launch is off to an outstanding beginning, and it sets us up for a much larger indication, sHTG and DAWNZERA for hereditary angioedema. And we're prepared to launch independently 2 new programs this year. I already mentioned severe hypertriglyceridemia with a PDUFA date on June 30 coming up and Zilganersen, our first wholly-owned neurology drug to be launched in September for Alexander disease. So the company really has evolved. We still have a lot more coming up, but it's really the product of the vision I laid out in January of 2020.
As you think about the 12- to 18-month catalyst path here, what would you highlight as the key updates read through to these 5-year goals for the company?
Yes. So there's a lot coming up for the company for Ionis. But I would start with the PDUFA date, the approval of TRYNGOLZA for severe hypertriglyceridemia. This program represents our first launch into a multibillion-dollar product opportunity for severe hypertriglyceridemia. Millions of people in the United States today suffer from the risk of acute pancreatitis, which can be fatal or/and cardiovascular disease due to severely elevated triglycerides.
And we reported remarkable groundbreaking data at the AHA last year, Phase III data showing not only substantial productions up to 72% reductions in triglycerides on top of standard of care. Nearly -- more than 50% of patients we were able to normalize their triglycerides, but also an 85% reduction in outcome, acute pancreatitis, which is groundbreaking unprecedented. And this is this multibillion-dollar product opportunity is obviously a big, big event for the company that sets us up for a lot of success into the future.
The approval of Zilganersen by the FDA in September is a big event, too. Although it's an ultra-rare indication, it's our first launch into wholly owned launch in neurology, and we have 7 drugs in our wholly owned pipeline in neurology today, 13 total with partners, but 7, including our Angelman's program I would highlight the Angelman's program, too, where we expect to complete enrollment this year and have Phase III data next year as well. So those are big events that are coming up for the company as well as our partnered pipeline, which we could talk more about later, which we have to manage to drive continued success. But our objective is to be cash flow breakeven in 2028 with revenue growth, consistent revenue growth to follow year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter and ultimately be profitable. So those are some big events that sets us up to achieve that.
In the context of the cash breakeven in 2028, how are you thinking about longer-term margins?
Growing, growing extensively as we continue to grow. We expect continued growth as these launches take shape. Our wholly owned launches take shape, growing margins quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year and as our partnered pipeline. We have a rich -- it's a big advantage to have multiple sources of revenue for the company. Our wholly owned pipeline is our priority. However, we have a rich revenue stream from our partnered pipeline as well. SPINRAZA continues to perform exceptionally well. We have a follow-on to SPINRAZA, Salanersen, which is coming -- which provides really attractive economics to Ionis.
We have a chronic HPV drug with GSK, which we expect approval in October, where we have attractive economics, then we have 4 more Phase III readouts from our partner pipeline this year. So this really -- we refer to this as a revenue accelerator our partner pipeline on top of our wholly owned pipeline, which, of course, we own to really drive those margins -- continued growth for those margins for well into the future.
Strategically, what is the role of external business development here and other modalities for advancing your portfolio? Historically, the company was very much focused on ASOs and we're now seeing you bring in other technologies. So maybe you could speak to those as well as your work on the blood-brain barrier technology.
Yes. Our research organization is incredibly prolific. I don't see the need for us to in-license drugs at all in the near future. I mean we'll always pay attention if there's something that was really attractive to us, we'd be surprised that we couldn't do it better ourselves. But we'll pay attention to it. But in-licensing drugs is not a priority for us today. We moved 3 to 5 new drugs into development every year, particularly in CNS and cardiometabolic diseases.
Technology and licensing is something we have done in the -- over the last few years since I've moved into this role. And in particular, we've in-licensed targeted ligand targeting strategies to open up new tissues and overcome the blood-brain barrier to your point. For example, we in-licensed exclusive rights from bicycle technology, Bicycle Therapeutics, in which we're using very low molecular at peptides attached to siRNAs or attached to ASOs that are opening up skeletal muscle, therapeutic opportunities, cardiac muscle, therapeutic opportunities and also allowing us to further extend our leadership in neurology by allowing us to not only administer our drugs intrathecally twice a year, once a year.
But to now to administer our drugs to the CNS using subcutaneous administration, low-volume administration, very infrequent. That's an example of bicycle. We have other approaches that we've been licensed as well to overcome the blood-brain barrier. For muscle targeting, we're actually in the clinic. For cardiac -- going after a cardiac myocyte target phospholamban for heart failure. That is partnered with AstraZeneca you may wonder, well, if you're prioritizing the wholly owned pipeline is a partner, well, we have a long-standing research collaboration with AstraZeneca and there was one target slot in the research [ cover ] remaining. They jumped at it. The data was really compelling. We have our own. That's now an IND tox study for cardiac muscle targeting, and we have targets coming for skeletal muscle for neuromuscular diseases.
For blood brain barrier, we are manufacturing our first BBB targeting drug for CNS diseases dementia, which will start IND tox studies in the second half of this year. And we hope to be in the clinic next year for our first BBB strategy. So I see us continuing to evaluate technology and in-licensing technology when it makes sense to like we had in the past. But right now, we're in pretty good shape with what we have. We have a lot of opportunity.
Starting here with TRYNGOLZA, you have the June 30 PDUFA for sHTG as you mentioned. Could you speak to your field team in preparation as you move from the ultrarare FCS indication to a much larger market here?
Yes. So as I mentioned earlier, this is a big, big opportunity for Ionis. We're leading the field, leading the way in targeting this indication severe hypertriglyceridemia. As I said, millions of people, multibillion-dollar product opportunity, and we're way ahead. And we're creating this market opportunity.
The FCS launch, the first indication, just for level setting for everybody, where we launched January last year for familial chylomicronemia syndrome with about 3,000 people in the United States devastating disease cause due to high -- very high triglycerides [indiscernible] demand for TRYNGOLZA and growing quarter-over-quarter, week-over-week, actually. That sets us up for a successful severe hypertriglyceridemia launch because we were in the market. Most of the physicians that manage FCS patients manage sHTG. We're out there talking about the Phase III data and setting us up to really take advantage of our leadership here.
We're ready to launch. We've had our final meetings at Ionis for launch readiness. We're ready to launch. Our field team that's approximately 200 or so field patient -- physician facing the field team is trained they're in the field. They're promoting FCS in the FCS indication and they're educating on severe hypertriglyceridemia. And our medical team has been in the field educating on the Phase III data from CORE and CORE2 in severe hypertriglyceridemia. They've been doing that for quite some time. And our drug supply is ready to go, and we're looking forward to an on-time approval on June 30, and we'll be -- we'll have a drug in channel within a few days and ready to launch.
So the other thing I'll say, Salveen, is that that's a starting point, a couple of hundred field-facing teams or patient-facing teams -- customer-facing teams, team members. We'll look at how the launch goes, and we can always modify that and upsize it as we need to.
You set a new WACC price of $40,000 for the drug effective April 1, applied to FCS as well as sHTG, remind us on the rationale behind not waiting until sHTG approval and how the integration into the 2027 payer cycles improves access post launch?
Yes. So our $40,000 WAC price for sHTG, again, level set for folks, we're going from a rare indication, a WACC price of $595,000 down to $40,000. That decision
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2 years of research
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demand research. It was the right time to do this. First of all, we had our Phase III data. Our HCP demand research was complete. And now earlier this year, we completed our payer research, which was extensive.
Obviously, what our goal was to do was to retain as much value for our shareholders for Ionis,while threading that needle to make sure access for patients was optimal, to avoid headaches for prescribers to write prescriptions and get patients access to the drug. In other words, no payer blocks, and we believe that based on all that work, we threaded the meal very nicely with a $40,000 flat price.
We implemented this on April 1 because our work was done. Secondly, because to coincide with 2027 payer budget cycles, which really begin April and May. And what we wanted to do was to make sure that TRYNGOLZA with the proper $40,000 with the proper price for a large highly prevalent disease indication, was on the radar. It was in the budgets for payers, so that we didn't have any roadblocks in the 2027 budget cycle. So it's there. It's getting there. It's getting embedded in the budgets for 2027.
And thirdly, it allowed us to talk to payers as we approach the PDUFA date and to talk about what their exposure is, right? And how we're going to be able to manage that with them to ensure for a smooth launch from a payer perspective. So really, all that came together and has been very well received by the payer community. So that sets us up for a nice smooth launch.
Could you lay out how you're thinking of quarterly dynamics this year as the volume from sHTG offsets the pricing headwind in FCS?
Yes. We -- so we have guided toward a $100 million, $110 million revenue goal for TRYNGOLZA for this year. And that reflects the significant of what I just took you through substantial reduction in price right out of the gate. So right now, we have a $40,000 WACC price for FCS, right? And that will go right into the sHTG launch. That is going to drive revenue down initially until that volume accelerates in the second half of this year. We're expecting the volume to accelerate pretty rapidly.
But still, the volume has to overcome the deficit in revenue that will get because of the drop in price. We expect that to really start beginning to take off in the fourth quarter of this year as that volume really overcomes and really takes shape. And then next year is going to be a big year for really accelerating revenue growth for the company as we work towards our $3 billion plus product U.S. peak product sales opportunity in the U.S.
What are you looking to see in competitor arrowheads Redemplo's Phase III data in the third quarter is it possible that their construct or use of siRNA could result in different hepatic fat increases versus TRYNGOLZA?
There's so much to take care of to ensure that this launch is as successful as possible. And as I said, we're in great shape to make sure it is successful. That's what we're focused on, we're really not looking for any data from any competitor Phase III data or whatever to influence what we're expecting to do. I mean we expect there to be a competitor in this space. And our $3 billion plus product market opportunity, peak sales opportunity reflects that, that we're not the only ones in this space.
Our data is groundbreaking, as I said, and we've set a very high bar on the reductions of acute pancreatitis, reductions in triglycerides that I just took you through, all with excellent safety, tolerability and the convenience of self-administration once per month using a simple low-volume auto-injector. But let me talk about the hepatic fat that you referred to because it's important to discuss. So what we reported in -- at AHA last year was a small increase, particularly at the 80-milligram dose in liver fat in patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia. I want to emphasize that we're expecting approval for 50 milligrams and 80 milligrams. Both were highly efficacious the 80 milligram dose showed a little bit better efficacy, particularly in the normalization of triglycerides down to a certain level, but both were highly efficacious and 50 milligrams barely move the needle on liver fat, it was very, very small. 80 was small too, but it was higher with the effects were dose dependent. There was no clinical sequelae associated with that increase in liver at 80 milligrams.
There was no correlation with ALT elevations. All of our demand research, the $3 billion-plus product market opportunity, that I referred to before, assumes that is there. That's based on -- that was included in our payer research, I was included in our HCP demand research. It's -- and in the eyes of HCPs, they shrug it off. They don't think it's anything to be concerned about, particularly since there's no adverse events associated with it. It's just an observation, and it's also well recognized as an on-target effect, right?
We know that our competitor -- a competitor of ours -- the competitor program that you referred to, the siRNA, showed in their Phase II study, dose-dependent increase in liver fat. By knocking through this mechanism targeting APOCIII. It wasn't statistically significant, but it was under powered. And it will be underpowered in their Phase III study, too because it's really relative to our study, there are very few patients that are undergoing MRI. So we think it's comparing apples to oranges. The bottom line is we're focused on our study, there's no clinical sequela associated with this.
And then the final thing I want to say is that as we continue to monitor these patients long term in the open-label extension. We're seeing exactly what you would see in an adaptive on-target response is that a return towards baseline, right? So these patients are continuing to be treated. No adverse events are emerging with long-term treatment, and we're seeing the liver fat -- the liver to be able to handle this and the triglycerides and deliver return towards baseline. So we're going to present that data at an upcoming medical congress. So stay tuned.
And how are the competitive dynamics between both drugs playing out in FCS maybe talk to what you're seeing in terms of new patient share and switches. And is there a read-through from that sHTG.
The FCS launch continues to go great. I mean, as I said before, the demand is -- continues to accelerate. Each week, my team tells me that this week was better than last with new patients coming out of TRYNGOLZA. And that, again, sets us up really well for severe hypertriglyceridemia it really reflects the product profile. I mean the efficacy and the feedback we're getting from the patient community and HCPs has been overwhelmingly positive. That's great.
I can't speak in detail about our competitor because I am not that familiar with it. But I'm sure that the vast majority of patients that they're identifying like us, our newly identified patients. I mean this is -- we've just scratched the surface in FCS. And this, we had the first FDA-approved medicine for FCS. So it's all about patient identification and getting patients onto new drug, I think, for both programs. I mean we're seeing a handful of patients switching from theirs to ours. And I think they said the same thing back and forth, but this is almost all newly identified patients for both programs. But TRYNGOLZA continues to go really well with respect to patient demanding new patients getting on drug and reauthorizations and prescribers expanding to more and more patients because of their positive experience.
Overall, what gave you the confidence here to raise your peak sales estimate from $2 billion to greater than $3 billion? And how much of this raise is due to the change in price, which could insinuate increased volumes?
Yes. And so in January of this year, we increased our peak product U.S. sales for TRYNGOLZA to be $2 billion plus. And that was based on the HCP demand research, how many patients do you have, how many -- how aggressive are you going to treat, how excited are you got the data, that was based on the Phase III data, which we then have.
More recently, we've upped that peak product sales to more than $3 billion in the U.S., and that's because of pricing. The HCP demand and the data is now in hand. But once we finalize the pricing that I referred to earlier of a $40,000 WACC that gets us into a net expectations for a net price that's meaningfully higher than what we were projecting in January. And that really is what drove that second increase in peak product sales for TRYNGOLZA to $3 billion plus. It's about pricing.
Okay. Moving to WAINUA, clearly addressing ATTR cardiomyopathy, which is a large blockbuster opportunity here. We're going to see data in the second half of the year with your partner, AstraZeneca. And you've disclosed that Cardio-TTR transform has 57% of patients on a stabilizer. I guess, a, speak to how you're thinking about the overall success of the study, but also in the context of the combo arm here and a really large end there. Do you expect statistical significance on top of tafamidis in the context of that trial?
So like TRYNGOLZA, we're developing -- we've developed a new for 2 indications, right? A rare hereditary indication called ATTR polyneuropathy, that's approved and that launch has gone very well. The feedback from the patient community and physicians have been very, very positive for the drug.
The second indication, we can call it rare, but we all know it's very -- it's much more prevalent, the ATTR cardiomyopathy, which includes hereditary but also wild-type patients, patients that don't have a mutation in the TTR gene. Cardio transform our Phase III study is the largest study ever conducted by far in ATTR cardiomyopathy, and that sets us up for the richest data set for not only the primary endpoint, but secondary end points.
And our -- we're expecting Phase III data, as you said, second half of this year and everything is going very well in the conduct of the study and execution. The study is reasonably derisked for its primary endpoint. We're excited. AstraZeneca is excited to get that data to get the NDA submitted, assuming positive outcome by the end of this year and to get that drug launched next year. Because of the size of the study, we will also have the potential to show benefit in secondary endpoints, right? And the most -- the one that people are most focused on is the combination with tafamidis, a stabilizer. First, let me make sure we're all aware that nobody has ever tested the hypothesis that a silencer and a stabilizer will cooperate and show additivity, right?
We're going to be the first to test that hypothesis. If that's the case, and it's reasonable to assume that it will cooperate. We're in the best position to show the -- to generate the strongest data set to reflect added benefit in combination. We're powered for the primary endpoint. Of course, all secondary endpoints have some powering associated with our powering for the combination isn't very high. It's a secondary endpoint. It's down in the hierarchy, we presented the higher -- statistical hierarchy already. But we believe that if they cooperate together, the mechanism is that we're going to have this strongest data set that could be convincing to prescribers that patients that are being treated with stabilizers today, and we don't know that all patients on stabilizers are progressing right?
This doesn't reverse the disease, they're progressing, which means heart failure, heart attacks, strokes, that they're going to advocate for combination usage with the science. We're going to be in a position to have that data and convince physicians that combination is worth doing to help patients. Our $5 billion plus product peak product sales guidance that we and AstraZeneca have stated does not assume combination benefit. That's an upside to that. So we're very much looking forward to that data. And like you said, we'll have the data in the second half of this year and everything is going well for the study.
And noting that you have an auto-injector for the Medicare Part B channel, do you still expect most of when you are treated patients to go through Part D? And within Part D, how are you thinking of pricing relative to the stabilizers? And is this an avenue to compete against AMVUTTRA in the Medicare Advantage segment?
Yes. So our primary -- we expect that the vast majority of patients on WAINUA will be going through the Part D route self-administered using a simple low-volume auto-injector. That's a big differentiator for WAINUA, which does not have to be treated by a health care provider in a clinical setting or what have you, using a prefilled syringe, we and AstraZeneca felt that there could be value in the physicians that prefer to be able to administer the drug themselves and maybe go through the Part B route for WAINUA to provide dosing flexibility an option for physicians to do that if you want to do it, the vast majority of patients.
And this has really resonated in the polyneuropathy launch. Self-administration is -- has been very well received. The convenience especially when you get into the much more prevalent cardiomyopathy indication, which we're going to be getting to not just centers of excellence, but rural settings and global settings. That it's going to be the primary driver for the value of WAINUA. But it does provide dosing flexibility as far as pricing, the price for polyneuropathy is out there. We haven't disclosed the pricing for cardiomyopathy. That will come when we get approval.
On the neurology side, you mentioned Angelman. What gives you the confidence in your primary endpoint here and ability to manage the heterogeneity in this population and essentially results in a positive outcome? And could you discuss your decision to remove the 40 milligram cohort from the Phase III study and any impact there to data timing?
Yes. We're very proud of our success in neurology 3 approved medicines today, including polyneuropathy for ATTR. But for CNS diseases, SPINRAZA and QALSODY for SOD1-- we recently reported positive Phase II data for our towel program in Alzheimer's disease with Biogen. And Zilganersen, we expect to prove for Alexander's disease in September. Right behind that is our Angelman's program, Obudanersen, which we expect to complete enrollment this year with a Phase III data next year.
Confidence a proven platform. This is the same platform that produced those FDA approvals that I referred to earlier. Our Phase I/II data, where we showed really, really, what we believe is highly clinically meaningful benefit across many different measures of clinical measures, including communication, cognition, motor function in Angelman using various different instruments. So and the study is we're going to complete enrollment later this year. So execution-wise, gives us confidence, too. But it's really the platform in our Phase I/II data. We chose expressive communication as our primary endpoint because that's where we saw the greatest magnitude of benefit in our Phase I/II study, although we saw a benefit in cognition and motor function, it was expressive communication that really stood out. It was dose dependent.
And also, what's very important is that we know the natural history, which is very well established in Angelman Syndrome. The natural history for progression of expressive communication is essentially 0. So the signal to noise in showing benefit compared to placebo on expressive communication should be highly advantageous for us. We don't we're not going to see a lot of noise in that endpoint. Of course, we have secondary endpoints on cognition and so forth and so on, but that gives us a lot of confidence, too.
And that's why we chose that as the primary endpoint. We removed the 40 milligram dose because we didn't feel like we needed it. The Phase I/II long-term extension data, which we reported some new data from last year showed that 80 milligrams was outperforming 40 milligrams, right? So let's just go to 80. It's good. It's well tolerated. It's safe, long-term treatment and allowed us to get to the Phase III data faster, right? We can enroll the patients quicker. Patients that were on 40 milligrams were moved into the open-label extension for the REVEAL Phase III study, and they move them up to 80 milligrams. Didn't really have much impact on our trial. But there's only a handful of patients -- a handful of patients at the time.
You've partnered neuro pipeline assets with Biogen, notably the tow targeting BIIB080 and the next-generation SMA assets Zilganersen.
Can you remind us of the economics to Ionis and yourself on the recent data releases for these assets, particularly the Phase II tau data?
Yes. So very quickly on Zilganersen, that's a follow-on to SPINRAZA that we provided to Biogen once per year intrathecal dosing with even greater efficacy of SPINRAZA, the economics from the mid-teens to the high 20 -- mid-20% range on royalties and about more than $500 million in development and commercial milestones. The tau data, we're very excited about that we reported with Biogen. That data is going to be presented at AAIC in July. And what you're going to see there is unprecedented improvements in cognition.
By targeting tau, you're also going to see reversal of tau pathology, so the neurofibrillary tangles that gets -- people are all aware of, we're actually reversing that by PET imaging and of course, tau reductions, all good tolerability, no area, of course, the antibodies and abilities to produce. The economics there are SPINRAZA like low to mid-teens and royalties and a few hundred million dollars in development and commercial milestones.
We believe tau is a breakthrough for Alzheimer's disease, obviously, we need desperate, desperately need new mechanisms to tackle in addition to a beta approaches. We think tau is the solution. we actually are also developing a blood-brain barrier approach to tau at Ionis that we expect to move into IND-supporting tox studies later this year.
Great. Well, with that, Brett, thank you so much. Really appreciate the time today.
Thanks, Salveen.
Good luck with all these data sets.
Yes. Thank you.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Ionis wandelt sich zur integrierten kommerziellen Biotech: mehrere anstehende Zulassungen, Preisentscheidung für TRYNGOLZA und klare 2028‑Cash‑Breakeven‑Ambition.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Ionis vollzieht den Übergang von einer Partner‑R&D‑Firma zu einer integrierten, kommerziellen Biotech: eigene Produktlaunches (TRYNGOLZA, DAWNZERA, Zilganersen) kombiniert mit einer aktiven Partnerpipeline. Fokus auf neue Modalitäten (siRNA, Blood‑Brain‑Barrier‑Strategien) und Profitabilität bis 2028.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Kommerzielle Expansion: Erste eigenständigen Launches laufen; Feldteam (~200) ist für den sHTG‑Launch geschult; Juli–September wichtige Rollouts.
- Produktkandidaten: TRYNGOLZA PDUFA für severe hypertriglyceridemia am 30. Juni; Zilganersen (Alexander‑Krankheit) erwartete Zulassung im September; Angelman‑Phase‑III Enrollment 2024.
- Technologie & Partners: Ausbau von ASO zu siRNA und BBB‑Strategien; Lizenzierung von Bicycle Therapeutics‑Technologie; wichtige Partnerschaften mit Biogen, AstraZeneca, GSK.
🔎 Neue Informationen
- Preis & Zugang: WAC‑Preis für TRYNGOLZA auf $40.000 seit 1. April angewandt (auch auf FCS) zur Platzierung in 2027‑Payer‑Budgets und zur Erleichterung des Zugangs nach Launch.
- Meilensteine: PDUFA 30.6. (sHTG), Zilganersen Launch im September, BBB‑IND‑Toxstart H2 2024; Angelman‑Studie entfernt 40mg‑Kohorte zugunsten 80mg.
- Finanzziel: Peak‑Umsatz TRYNGOLZA >$3 Mrd. (U.S.) und Cash‑flow‑Breakeven angestrebt 2028.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Preis vs. Volumen: Warum $40.000 vor sHTG‑Zulassung? Ziel war Payer‑Budget‑Inklusion für 2027; Management erwartet initialen Preis‑Headwind, dann Volumenanstieg H2 und Q4.
- Sicherheitssignal: Leichter Anstieg der Leberfettwerte (vor allem 80mg) wurde diskutiert; Management bewertet es als on‑target, ohne klinische Folgen bisher und beobachtet Rückkehr gegen Basis im Open‑Label.
- Wettbewerb & Combo: Fragen zu KonkurrenzsiRNA (Arrowhead) und zur Additivität mit Tafamidis in ATTR‑Studie (Cardio‑TTR). Management bleibt zuversichtlich, sieht Kombi‑Benefit als Upside, Primärendpunkt aber gut gepowered.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Handlung: Ionis bietet jetzt klare Proof‑points für den Übergang zur kommerziellen Firma: mehrere unmittelbare Katalysatoren (PDUFA, Phase‑III‑Readouts, Launches). Kurzfristig kann die $40k‑Preisentscheidung die Umsätze dämpfen, langfristig aber Zugang und Peak‑Volumen fördern. Haupt‑risiken: Zulassungen, Launch‑execution, Sicherheitsbeobachtung und Payer‑Umsetzung.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Special Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Good afternoon, welcome to the 2026 Annual Shareholders Meeting Corporate Update. My name is Brett Monia. I'm Chief Executive Officer of Ionis and Board Director at Ionis, and I couldn't be more thrilled to provide an update on the remarkable progress we have made at Ionis to drive accelerating value for all Ionis stakeholders over the last few years, and more importantly, how we are set up to drive even greater value in the years to come.
Of course, I will be making forward-looking statements during my presentation. So please take this under consideration in any interest you have in Ionis going forward. The field of oligonucleotide therapeutics has emerged as one of the most exciting and important new approaches to drug discovery and drug development in the pharmaceutical industry. And we're proud of the fact that Ionis pioneered this field. Accordingly, we have a rich history in discovering and developing transformational RNA-targeted medicines for a whole range of medically important diseases.
In support of this, we created the industry-leading medicinal chemistry and keep manufacturing capabilities here within Ionis. We were the first to optimize and validate oligonucleotide therapeutics of any kind to liver for diseases related to liver-derived factors as well as to the central nervous system for human therapeutics. We are at the forefront of validating, optimizing mechanisms of action of RNA-targeted therapeutics, whether it be mechanisms that result in the degradation of the targeted RNA to block the production of toxic proteins, such as through an RNase H mechanism or to modulate and improve splicing mechanisms, so that we can replace proteins, upregulate proteins that are lacking in loss of function diseases. And this has led to us leading the way in discovering and developing first-in-class medicines for a range of serious diseases.
We had remarkable progress across the business over the last several years. And this has set us up very well for accelerating growth, accelerating value creation for years to come. One of the most important decisions we made and a decision that has played out extremely well, great success is the evolution of Ionis from a research and development organization to a fully integrated commercial stage biotechnology company, creating a commercial organization of excellence and has always matched the excellence, we've always exhibited in research and development. And this is based on a truly groundbreaking technology, technology that continues to advance forward with state-of-the-art APOCIII type approaches creating a high-value, innovative pipeline.
We have consistently, especially over the last few years, delivered breakthrough clinical results that have enabled highly successful drug approvals and commercial launches and all of this is setting us up to drive revenue growth -- accelerating revenue growth, positive cash flow and value creation for everybody involved in the Ionis sphere. Over the last few years, we've had remarkable success. And just over the last 3 years, some of those achievements are shown in this slide. Six positive as Phase III data readouts that have resulted in 4 approved medicines and medicines with brand names that you can read there on the slide.
We're expecting 3 more approved medicines by the end of this year. Two of these approved medicines and independent launches, commercial launches have been -- are independent. Our first independent launches in Ionis' history, Tryngolza for familial chylomicronemia syndrome and DAWNZERA for hereditary angioedema and there's a lot more coming, and we've created a remarkable pipeline with 11 medicines in late-stage development and many more, of course, at mid stage just getting started from in the clinical pipeline. We're very proud and very pleased with the on-time approval last August of DAWNZERA, as a prophylactic treatment for hereditary angioedema.
Now although there are prior to DAWNZERA's approval, prophylactic treatments for this devastating genetic rare disease -- we also recognized, and as far as we moved on forward that the unmet need for patients is still vastly large. There's a lot of unmet need here for patients, and we felt that on DAWNZERA fill the needs of those patients. DAWNZERA is a very novel mechanism of action. Of course, as the first and only RNA-targeted treatment to prevent severe swelling, HAE attacks, which can be failed in these patients. And we're pleased that the launch is going very well, because this is a market where existing prophylactic treatment existed prior to the approval of DAWNZERA, as I mentioned. We're moving in to a market where the goal is to switch patients from their existing prophylactic treatment where they're dissatisfied to DAWNZERA.
And in fact, in this launch, we're seeing the majority of our patients switching from other prophylactic treatment to DAWNZERA. Also patient have managed their disease through other means such as on-demand treatment or even treatment naive patients. We're seeing a growing number of repeats with subscribers or prescribers and launch is gaining significant momentum, and we're proud of the fact that our first quarter results, we achieved 128% improvement over our first quarter launch. And I can tell you that the launch for DAWNZERA continues to be quite strong. We look forward to presenting an update on our Q2 earnings later this year.
Now moving on from DAWNZERA, which, of course, is being -- which is a disease hereditary angioedema, it's managed by allergists and immunologist very different than the bulk of our pipeline today. I want to drive -- I want to turn attention to our leading therapeutic areas of focus, cardiometabolic diseases and neurological diseases. Two areas where we have proven value time and time again from our pipeline, 2 areas that we pioneered, and we've developed drugs and our developing drugs for both rare and prevalent these indications, several of which have multiple -- several of which have blockbuster potential.
Now I want to start by providing some of the progress we're making in cardiometabolic diseases and now I'll move over to neurological diseases, some highlights in neurology as well. Starting with cardiometabolic disease and starting with olezarsen. Olezarsen, a transformational medicine or disease indications, all disease indications related to severely elevated triglyceride. There's a high unmet need for better treatments to manage patients with high triglycerides. And we're developing olezarsen, and you'll see this in a moment, our brand name for olozarsen for its first indication is called Tryngolza. And I may go back and forth between Olezarsen and Tyngolza, here and there.
The first indication is a rare, severe genetic disease call familial chylomicronemia syndrome or FCS. In the U.S., there's about 3,000 people suffering from this debilitating disease. As I mentioned, it's a genetic disorder, which is a consequence of severely elevated triglyceride through certain mutations in the genome of people. These patients -- these people suffer from a whole host of comorbidities, but what is most significant is the risk of a potentially fatal and recurring, if not fatal, acute pancreatitis attack.
And then there's a second indication, severe hypertriglyceridemia. This is not a rare disease. This is a disease that affects millions of people in the United States alone, it too is defined by very high triglyceride levels. In this case, triglyceride, the definition of sHTG in the U.S. are triglycerides above 500 mg/dL, normal triglyceride below 150. Although this is not a genetic disease and it's not a rare disease. These patients suffer from the same most significant risk that FCS patients suffer from the risk of a potentially fatal acute pancreatitis attack. They also suffer from risk of ASCVD cardiovascular diseases. And although there are some generic treatments for high triglycerides for SHTG today, they're grossly inadequate. They cannot get triglyceride for the most part, the vast majority patients cannot get patients triglyceride down in any meaningful way that puts them at risk for acute pancreatitis.
Late 2024, we were thrilled with the first FDA-approved medicine for a drug medicine for familial chylomicronemia syndrome in the United States. That is Tryngolza. And last year, we launched Tryngolza in January. It was our first year of launch and our first independent launch in our history. The approval of Tryngolza for FCS was based on remarkable groundbreaking results, efficacy results, substantial reductions in triglycerides and in acute pancreatitis with a very attractive safety profile, and offers the convenience of once per month administration using a low-volume auto-injector. Patients can administer themselves very simply.
In addition to the U.S., we're also launched in the EU with a commercial partner, and the launch was also a great start. We reported our Q1 revenue of $27 million, which was substantial growth compared to the first quarter of our 2025. The launch continues to go exceptionally well, and we're looking forward to provide an update DAWNZERA in our Q2 earnings in a few months.
Turning attention to severe hypertriglyceridemia now, Tryngolza and Olezarsen for this large indication, which represents Ionis' first potential multibillion-dollar wholly owned medicine. As I said, there are more than 3 million people with sHTG in the United States, and there's about 1 million or more than 1 million, slightly over 1 million people that we refer to as high-risk patients. Patients that have had AP event in their history and chances of having the other event is very high or the triglycerides are so high. Above 80 or so such that they have chylomicronemia, that put them at even higher risk for acute pancreatitis as well. What we demonstrated, presented and published last year was groundbreaking results from our CORE and CORE 2 Phase III studies evaluating Olezarsen in sHTG.
We showed a highly -- a substantial and highly statistically significant clinically meaningful reductions in triglycerides. Many of the patients in our study, we were actually able to normalize their triglycerides from very, very high levels down below that 150 mg/dL target, that I mentioned before and nearly 90% of patients, we were able to get them below the definition of severe hypertriglyceridemia, below 500 mg/dL. But what was really grounded, what was really remarkable and unprecedented was the first time anyone ever demonstrated that you can reduce acute pancreatitis events.
By lowering triglycerides in people with sHTG, 85% production in acute pancreatitis in our study after only 12 months of treatment, groundbreaking results. Like -- I guess like for FCS, we will -- and we administer Olezarsen, Tryngolza and using a simple once-per-month self-administration auto-injector. We're well ahead of any potential competition to be first to the market using this mechanism of action targeting APOCIII for sHTG. Our field team is fully deployed already. Of course, marketing FCS, but also educating severe hypertriglyceridemia and not surprising considering the groundbreaking results for this study and the unmet need. The FDA granted not only priority review, but also breakthrough therapy destination for this program and granted us with a PDUFA date of June 30, 2026.
As I said, this is the potentially the first multibillion-dollar wholly owned product opportunity for Ionis in our history. And recently, we increased peak product sales in the United States guidance beyond greater than $3 billion. We have an exciting cardiometabolic pipeline, we've just scratched the surface. This pipeline will continue to grow and expand. Today, we have 6 medicines in clinical development in cardiometabolic diseases. I highlighted Olezarsen. I also wanted to highlight the fact that we have a follow-on molecule that is on the verge of starting as a Phase II study in severe hypertriglyceridemia. That's ION775, in target APOCIII, but with this drug is our first advancement of an Ionis discovered using Ionis know-how in chemistry siRNA into the clinic -- and in this case, as a follow-on molecule to Olezarsen. The efficacy of a Olezarsen and sHTG is tough to be -- that's really not the objective. The objective is to relax dosing such that we can get to maybe even once per year dosing to add convenience for patients.
And then we have several other from our wholly owned pipeline that will be starting Phase I study shortly in our partnered pipeline is very exciting as well. I want to highlight 2 programs in which we're expecting Phase III data in the second half of this year. Eplontersen, which is already approved under the brand name WAINUA for hereditary ATTR polyneuropathy is in Phase III development for ATTR cardiomyopathy, where we're expecting data in the second half of this year.
That's a co-development, co-commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca. And then, of course, pelacarsen, pelacarsen in development, Phase III development with our partner, Novartis, for Lp(a)-driven cardiovascular disease and another cardiovascular outcome trial with data expected in the second half of this year.
Turning attention to our leading neurology platform, our leading neurology portfolio, a portfolio that has a strong track record in delivering first-in-class neurology medicines, breakthrough treatments like SPINRAZA, the first ever FDA-approved medicine for spinal muscular atrophy, like QALSODY, the first disease-modifying treatment for any cause of ALS and the first FDA-approved medicine for a genetic cause of ALS, QALSODY. And then WAINUA, as I already mentioned, on the market for hereditary ATTR polyneuropathy. And we're well positioned to deliver a steady cadence of medicines in neurology. We have a strong pipeline of wholly owned as well as partnered medicines, and we're anticipating our first independent launch in neurology in the second half of this year, and I'll get to that in a moment.
We have a focused strategy to expand our wholly owned neurology portfolio. Our wholly owned pipeline is the priority. And we're really excited about the innovations we're making in science to further extend our leadership in neurology in various ways, including moving to once per year dosing using an intrathecal route of delivery or using approaches that allow us to deliver our drugs to CNS by subcutaneous or intravenous administration, overcoming the blood-brain barrier.
We are very proud of the data we reported last year, Phase III data for zilganersen for the treatment of a severe commonly fatal -- typically fatal neurodegenerative disease called Alexander disease. Zilganersen, our data demonstrated the first -- to be the first and only investigational medicine to demonstrate clinically meaningful disease-modifying impact on patients living with Alexander disease. This is an ultra-rare disease indication. We received in the U.S. and EU orphan designation. And again, like for sHTG with TRYNGOLZA, olezarsen, we received breakthrough therapy designation and priority review for zilganersen with a PDUFA date of September 26 -- September 22, 2026, later this year. And we're prepared to launch. And this launch represents, again, our first independent launch for Ionis in neurology.
And coming up right behind zilganersen for Alexander disease is another really exciting wholly owned program that we're in Phase III development for Obudanersen for Angelman syndrome, a very promising medicine addressing a disease, a neurodevelopmental disease with incredibly high unmet need.
There's more than 100,000 people in major geographies today with Angelman syndrome, and there are no effective treatments for this disease today. We reported multiple times updates on the HALOS Phase I/II study in patients with -- treated with Obudanersen with Angelman syndrome, which we showed consistent and meaningful improvements in a range of clinical outcomes at only 6 months of treatment.
And I'm pleased to say that we also shared long-term data from our long-term extension that continues to support the benefits that Obudanersen appear to be delivering on from the 6-month HALOS Phase I/II study, certainly supporting continued development -- Phase III development.
Again, another breakthrough therapy designation for an Ionis discovered medicine. We expect to complete enrollment in the REVEAL Phase III study this year with data expected next year. And this is what our neurology clinical pipeline looks like today. I said it was robust. It was deep and broad, and I think the slide really reflects that.
Today, we have 13 medicines in clinical development, more than half of which are wholly owned today. I touched on already zilganersen for Alexander disease and Obudanersen for Angelman syndrome. And you can read the rest of the programs that are in Phase II development for devastating genetic diseases.
And I guess I'll just highlight one other program, which we just began clinical testing on in Dravet syndrome, ION337. We just got that started over the last month or so. And our partner pipeline also is very exciting, of course. We're expecting Phase III data for ulefnersen for ALS driven by mutations in the gene called FUS later this year.
We reported just today, our partner, Biogen reported breakthrough therapy designation for salanersen, a follow-on molecule for spinal muscular atrophy, a follow-on molecule SPINRAZA that supports once per year intrathecal dosing with faster onset of action and potentially even greater efficacy than SPINRAZA in SMA.
And we also reported positive Phase II data with our partner, Biogen for Diranersen targeting TAU in Alzheimer's disease just 2 weeks ago, and we will be presenting that Phase II data with Biogen at AAIC in July. There's a lot going on at Ionis, a lot of positive momentum, a lot of success of late and 2026 was set up to be a highly eventful year with many value-driving events, clinical events, Phase III events, I've already mentioned some of them.
In January of this year, we and our partner, GSK, reported very positive Phase III data for bepirovirsen in chronic HBV, which was presented and which the data was presented in detail last week at EASL and published simultaneously in the New England Journal of Medicine data which showed for the first time unprecedented results on functional cures for people living with chronic HBV, functional cures on the order of 20% in the overall population, really remarkable.
I already mentioned pelacarsen, eplontersen Phase III data later this year and ulefnersen Phase III data. We're also expecting Phase III data for sefaxersen later this year in IgA nephropathy with our partner, Roche. And we've initiated Phase III studies now for sapablursen, [indiscernible] for SMA, as I mentioned, and so on.
And we're also expecting more Phase II data this year. Along those lines, our regulatory affairs group is very busy with new submissions, approvals and so on. The most important, of course, is the approval of olezarsen in the U.S. for severe hypertriglyceridemia, zilganersen, U.S. approval for Alexander disease and bepirovirsen U.S. approval for chronic HBV, which we expect this year. And of course, following this our product launches.
These are exciting times at Ionis. Few companies can boast the steady cadence of new medicines that we expect to reach the market in the near term as we can here at Ionis, building on the success of WAINUA in ATTR polyneuropathy, TRYNGOLZA for FCS, DAWNZERA for hereditary angioedema. We're expecting 3 new product launches this year. I already mentioned, olezarsen for sHTG, zilganersen for Alexander disease, bepirovirsen for chronic HBV.
And assuming positive Phase III data later this year, we can anticipate new launches next year for pelacarsen for cardiovascular disease, eplontersen for ATTR cardiomyopathy, IgA nephropathy and the FUS-ALS that I mentioned and then Phase III data for obudanersen for Angelman syndrome next year as well.
So obviously, with so much success from our pipeline and our commercial launches, wholly owned and partnered, we're in a very good position to continue to drive and accelerate the driving -- the drive for revenue growth for Ionis over the relative near term.
At peak sales, just for the medicines that I just highlighted on the previous slide, we anticipate more than $5 billion in annual peak product revenue for Ionis, matched with partnered royalty revenue that goes beyond more than $2 billion, summing up to more than $7 billion in product revenue just from those near -- relative near-term programs that I just highlighted on the previous slide.
I also want to highlight the fact that the guidance to this revenue is also probabilized such that we do not assume every program is going to be successful in Phase III or on their launches as we hope them to be. So this is a relative conservative estimate of revenue growth for the company at peak for those programs in the relative near term. Very, very exciting for the company. It's going to continue to drive value for all of our stakeholders.
And based on the pipeline performance, the launch performance and the revenue growth that we anticipate, that's again probabilized, we are well on track to achieving breakeven cash flow in 2028 with positive cash flow, accelerating cash flow and for following breakeven and growth -- continued growth for years to come, driven by the product launches, some of which I highlighted already, royalty revenue. We're in a very strong financial position today, building on that foundation and of course, disciplined expense management.
So to conclude, Ionis has had a great deal of success over the last few years. But more importantly, we are positioned to drive far greater value in the near term this year, next year and for years to come, accelerating growth. And that's based on our leadership in cardiometabolic and neurological drug discovery and development, the steady cadence of positive clinical trial results we've delivered, successful product approvals we've delivered and the launches we have delivered and will continue to deliver and the fact that we're retaining so much more value for the company today as a fully integrated commercial stage successful biotechnology company. This is driving accelerated revenue growth, which is producing a clear path to sustained positive cash flow with breakeven cash flow in 2028.
So that's my presentation, and thank you very much for your attention. And now we can open it up for Q&A session.
Great. So I think several people have figured out how to submit questions online. We have a number of questions in the queue that we'll go through. [Operator Instructions]
The first question comes from Tom. He's asking about our strategy for China. He wants to know since we still have some rights to some of our drugs that we haven't licensed out to -- for China market, if and how we plan to commercialize olezarsen or these other drugs in China? And the second part of this question is, big pharma has done several deals for siRNAs with Chinese companies in the last year. How are these deals impacting your business model?
Thank you for the question. So our focus for our independent wholly owned launches is to focus on the U.S. market for now, we will be emerging to commercialization of our own products outside the U.S. eventually.
But today, we are relying on partnerships for commercialization of our products today. China is not a top priority for us, honestly. We have excellent partnerships for TRYNGOLZA already for the major -- for the global -- for the geographies that we have prioritized, EU, Japan, Middle East, LatAm, Canada.
China is not a top priority, but we continue to discuss potential commercialization partnerships for China for all of our wholly owned programs. And there's interest, but it's just not the highest priority right now. Impact of China, big pharma partnerships with China really has been none. We have seen nothing that has come out of China that we can't match or exceed with respect to science and innovation.
As I mentioned in my presentation, we have a follow-on molecule for olezarsen, TRYNGOLZA that's supporting once every twice a year, once a year dosing, subcu dosing with remarkable efficacy based on Phase I data.
We're doing the same thing for our other wholly owned programs, follow-on programs. We've seen nothing coming out of China that matches our innovation. I'll also tell you, we're doing the same thing in neurology. We have follow-on programs, as I mentioned, for salanersen that supports once per year intrathecal dosing, new approaches that are going to allow us to dose subcutaneously for CNS diseases overcoming the blood-brain barrier.
I've seen nothing in CNS that's going out of China that matches the expertise or the advancements we're making here at Ionis and CNS diseases. So nondismissive, but paying very close attention to it. But so far, no concerns.
Next question comes from James. He's asking, it appears that Ionis recently received patents for half-duplex ASO architecture and family of technologies. Can you elaborate a bit on what this architecture technology is about? And how do you plan to use it? Also, how would you -- how would this compare to standard siRNA in terms of potency like knockdowns and dose duration?
So these are double-stranded approaches that we -- our outstanding research team uncovered the potential for that they have shown remarkable durability and potency in animal models that, in many cases, not in all cases, but in many cases, match the durability and potency that we see with state-of-the-art antisense and state-of-the-art siRNAs.
We don't know how we're going to use this technology today. We don't -- we're looking at it much, more carefully. We have a lot more to learn about this technology. But it's just another example of Ionis innovation from our research organization. We think it has the potential to be as good and potentially better for certain applications, but we still have a lot more work to do here.
Our next question, actually a slew of questions comes from Denis Reznik asking on behalf of Gary Nachman from Canaccord Genuity. We'll break this up into a couple of parts. There's the first part. This has deal with TRYNGOLZA and olezarsen. Please provide an update on sHTG discussions with the FDA as we get closer to the upcoming PDUFA date.
Any color you can provide on how labeling discussions are progressing and what patients should be covered in the indication will sHTG AP data be included somewhere and any potential updates to warnings and precautions.
A long question. So I'm sorry to say that my answer is quite short. It's -- we don't comment on -- we're obviously in labeling discussions at this stage with a PDUFA date of June 30. And we don't comment on labeling interactions with the FDA at this stage in -- as we approach approval. All I can say is that our discussions with the FDA are going very well.
The second part related to olezarsen is how will payers be treating the sHTG indication? Will they be largely sticking to the label? And will they be requiring any sort of step edits or prior authorization documentation prior to approving TRYNGOLZA for use in the different sHTG patient groups of varying risk profiles?
Yes. We don't expect payers to support nor would we promote any off-label use for the indication, sHTG, as defined by triglycerides, 500 and above. I mean, we're talking millions of people in the United States. There's -- the opportunity here is enormous. So we don't expect that. We're not going to promote that nor we expect payers to support that.
But the other part of your question was on what step edit. -- sorry. step edit. So most of the patients -- many of the patients that have sHTG are already being treated with generic medicines inadequately fibrates, omega-3 fatty acids some even statins and those sorts of things.
These patients are -- all the patients essentially in our Phase III trial were on these drugs already. So although I wouldn't necessarily call it a step edit, the vast majority of the patients that we're going to be targeting initially, certainly, the high-risk patients are already on these drugs. Olezarsen and TRYNGOLZA demonstrated the results that I highlighted, the groundbreaking results on top of these medicines already.
For newly diagnosed patients, would they have to go on a generic fibrate or something like that? Possibly, maybe not, we'll see. That's something that we're going to have to work through. I don't -- whether it's required or not, it wouldn't take long after a couple of months, it will be clear that these patients are not getting to target and they're going to need to get on to TRYNGOLZA for their treatment. So we don't -- more important -- most importantly, we don't see this as a barrier to achieving our peak product revenue goals of $3 billion plus at peak in the U.S.
Thanks. Continuing on with questions from Denis at Canaccord. What are your expectations for the pelacarsen Phase II readout in Lp(a)? And what are you hoping to show with the outcomes data? And what's the latest timing of that data?
So the timing and data of the data has not changed. Our -- what we're guiding to us in Novartis in the second half of this year. We're very confident that, that data is going to come out in the second half of this year. We're looking forward to it.
As far as expectations, just let me remind everybody that there has been a baseline demographic paper published by Novartis in clinical trial design and study rationale and design rationale. The study is powered to achieve a 20% relative risk reduction in the total population, a 25% risk reduction in patients that are at greater risk in the study, higher Lp(a) in the study.
What I -- what do we expect to be a clinically important outcome in this study would be clinically significant -- clinically significant benefit on outcome, which is a composite of mortality and hospital CV events in the study compared to placebo.
Why is that? Why is the magnitude of risk reduction not so important because the unmet need here is enormous. There's 8 million to 10 million people in the United States suffering from cardiovascular disease, heart attacks and strokes at very high Lp(a) levels, and it's not manageable with any medicines that are out there today, showing benefit in this patient population would be groundbreaking for the cardiovascular field, where there's a desperate need for treatments for Lp(a) treating cardiovascular disease. And that's what I expect in the study. I expect it to be positive.
Follow-on, if the data are positive, how soon can this be filed for regulatory approval?
By the end of this year.
Next question is on WAINUA for ATTR cardiomyopathy. What should investors expect to see in the top line results, specifically with the combination subgroup that would be considered meaningful compared to the HELIOS-B data? And if positive, how soon can it be filed?
So this is a co-development, co-commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca, a partnership that is now over a decade old, a great partner. We work very closely together on this program. We're looking forward to the outcome of this study, which started in 2020, largest study ever conducted in ATTR cardiomyopathy, positioned to deliver the richest data set, not only in the primary endpoint, of course, but in the secondary endpoints, including the combination with tafamidis subgroup that you referred to.
The reason for your question and for the benefit of others, of course, is that nobody has ever shown -- has ever designed a study that can actually determine whether or not the combination of a silencer with a stabilizer will provide added benefit versus either agent alone or versus tafamidis alone, most importantly, which is the standard of care in the market today.
All patients on tafamidis are progressing. Some are progressing a lot faster than others, but they're all progressing, although tafamidis provides benefit to these patients. That's why the combination group is so interesting. It can we actually add further benefit in the combination group.
We have not worked through the -- what we're going to share in our top line announcement. But what I can say is that we believe that -- well, we will present the data at a medical congress as soon as possible after the data comes out and publish in simultaneously in a reputable journal. So all I can say is stay tuned for that. What we share with respect to secondary endpoints in top line results is something that we're going to have to work through with our partner.
And if positive, how soon could this be filed?
Also, we expect to file by the end of the year.
All right. Next, we have a slew of questions from James. First one is, when do you plan to start clinical trials for your first BBB crossing drug?
We plan to initiate our first BBB crossing drug, which I can tell you is a wholly owned neurology medicine, complete to start and complete -- well start IND studies this year to complete them sometime next year to enable a first in-human study second half of next year.
Next question is, it seems like Ionis' siRNA chemistry is much more potent than the competition. Can you elaborate more on this? And also, can the concept of MsPA chemistry be applied to your siRNAs?
Yes. We have a remarkable medicinal chemistry toolbox, MsPA is one of those tools, and we have been and can certainly apply it to siRNA as we do with single strand as we do and have with single-stranded antisense.
And all I can say about our siRNA capabilities are that we've seen nothing that's out there that can beat what we have done. Whether we're better or not, that has to be determined. We get a lot more experience in the clinic. But right now, you're right, early clinical returns have been extremely supportive of our capabilities.
I want to emphasize that this. I don't know of any company that has the expertise to do both, state-of-the-art single-stranded antisense for applications where antisense works best and double-stranded siRNA applications for applications where siRNA could work best. And we're developing both mechanisms depending on the target, depending on the application.
And as I said earlier, we have several SIs in the clinic already, and we're expecting to have more later this year and next year.
A question from James. What is your strategy for follow-on drugs with your more advanced chemistry and technology?
For all of our wholly owned programs, that we have achieved a key inflection point, let's say, proof of concept in the clinic as an example. Based on the advancements we're making in science, we have a high priority. We prioritize follow-on programs if we believe those advancements can be applied to a follow-on molecule that will meaningfully differentiate versus the existing molecule or competition, emerging competition.
We recognize the fact that there's a lot of smart people in the world out there and -- everybody watches what Ionis is doing because we tend to be first in the diseases we target and the targets we go after. So follow-on molecules to build a franchise around an indication is a top priority for the company.
And I gave you an example already. I'll give you 2 examples. One example was the follow-on we have with TRYNGOLZA, which is now about to start Phase II testing in sHTG supports once per year dosing. And I mentioned the follow-on to SPINRAZA, that's in Phase III development with our partner, Biogen and Ionis discovered medicine that supports once per year intrathecal dosing with potential for even greater efficacy than SPINRAZA in SMA. We're going to do that for all of our programs.
James has more questions on the technology. It looks like you've developed several technologies that can compete with competitors' modalities. Do you have plans to showcase these technologies? And what are your strategic plans for them to showcase them to investors?
Yes. So to be determined how best to do that, we -- of course, we published a lot at Ionis. We present at a lot of scientific conferences. Our research team is very active in doing that. But I understand the question, can you pull it all together and really present the overall strategy and the progress you're making overall.
To be determined, we have been incredibly busy with the late-stage pipeline and the launches that I highlighted earlier and even our mid-stage pipeline today. But we are looking forward to maybe a component of our biannual Innovation Day that we've been holding to really do a real focus on science and the advancements we're making there.
And maybe in the second half of this year, we can do a podcast or some sort of webcast and focusing on science. So I guess the bottom line is something we want to do. We just need to find the right time to do it.
Another question from James. Are you building your own internal ligand or peptide library? And so can you elaborate on the strategy for this?
All I can say is yes. We have our own programs internally. We also have a strategic partnership with Bicycle Therapeutics using very small low-molecular weight peptide-like molecules for muscle targeting as well as for blood-brain barrier where we have exclusive rights for all oligonucleotide strategies, ASOs, siRNAs.
It's working really well. Our first Bicycle siRNA is actually in Phase I testing today for a heart indication, targeting cardiac myocytes, that's with AstraZeneca. And -- but we have our own internal programs too. I just can't talk more about them. It's a very, very competitive space, as I'm sure you know.
And one more question it looks like from James is, do you or GSK have plans to develop a follow-on drug for Hep B using MsPA, assuming that this chemistry would have better efficacy and dosing?
Not at this time, but I wouldn't rule it out for the future. What I can say is this, the groundbreaking results that GSK reported from the Phase III studies at EASL and published simultaneously on functional cure rates in the order of 20% to 25% just the beginning.
GSK is committed to -- as groundbreaking as those results are and important for the HBV community, that's the beginning. GSK is committed to this drug, bepirovirsen in this area and are already in clinical testing with combination approaches that sets bepirovirsen up to drive even greater functional cure rates.
So you can see some of that on clinicaltrials.gov, but also there's more in the works, I can tell you that's being planned. So the question really is about how are you going to ensure growing success and real leadership in chronic HBV for many years to come. GSK is doing all they can in that space with respect to combination approaches and further clinical trials involving bepirovirsen.
A question from Howard. Do you have any updates on the development of oral drugs?
We're not pursuing oral drugs at this time. It's -- we've been down that road many times. We've invested extensively. I think we've done the by far the most substantial work and the most innovative work in oligonucleotide oral delivery, whether it be ASOs, siRNAs and so on.
It's just really problematic. Instead, several years ago, we pivoted to less frequent dosing. As I mentioned for certain targets, we're on the cusp of potentially delivering drugs once per year using a low-volume subcutaneous injection once per year.
And in the CNS, once per year, intrathecally or even subcutaneously, which will, if subcutaneous administration works for CNS diseases, that too will be extremely infrequent. That's not going to be a frequent dosing regimen.
We questioned the value of oral drugs versus once per year dosing or twice a year dosing. I mean that's very convenient for patients and doesn't cause the burden of oral delivery often frequently every day or so. So we've pretty much moved away from oral delivery.
Another couple of questions from Tom. Where do you think stand with respect to your collaboration with Metagenomi and other gene editing efforts? Will you bring a gene editing drug into the clinic in the next year?
Our partnership with Metagenomi continues to go well, very well. We have late-stage programs in research, drug discovery research. We haven't disclosed -- Ionis has not disclosed targets that we've prioritized yet. We expect to have a candidate by next year, probably the first half of next year, our first candidate involving gene editing.
I want to emphasize again that -- or I want to emphasize that the know-how of Ionis with respect to chemical modification of nucleic acids and understanding nucleic acid biology and drug discovery, nucleic acid-related drug discovery is something we're taking full advantage of with Metagenomi in developing state-of-the-art gene editing approaches.
And just general know-how of understanding how to discover drugs involving nucleic acids. So it's going well. We expect our first candidate discovery efforts are going well. We expect candidate not too far down the road. And as far as when we initiate clinical studies, that's to be determined, but it's not going to be next year.
Next last question from Tom is, how many Phase I trials do you plan on initiating in the next 12 months? And can you tell me what the targets for these drugs are?
I can't talk about targets at these targets at this stage where until they reach posting on trials or we start the Phase I study. I did mention already, we just started Dravet syndrome Phase I/II, first-in-man first inpatient study. So we refer to that as Phase II study. That's underway.
We expect additional first-in-human starts this year. Typically, we move 3 to 5 new drug candidates into development each year, and that has a trickle-down effect of a similar cadence of new clinical trial starts each year. So that's the ballpark for new trial starts for Ionis, and we're well on track for that this year as well as next year.
We have a couple of questions from Ted, who's asking about tissue delivery. First question is, where do things stand with Ionis targeting skeletal muscle, skeletal muscle targeting drugs entering the clinic in the next year?
Potentially, we have several late-stage drug discovery programs using the Bicycle technology, coupled with an ASO or an siRNA for muscle targets for neuromuscular diseases that are, as I said, in late-stage drug discovery. They have the potential to get through tox next year, assuming everything goes well and maybe get into the clinic in the second half of next year. That's to be determined. We don't have the drug candidates yet. But if everything goes smoothly, I wouldn't rule out a clinical start next year.
Second question that Ted has is about -- where do you think stand with Ionis' inhaled drug programs and Ionis any inhaled drugs into the clinic soon?
We have our first medicine using Ionis advanced chemistry, MsPA chemistry, in particular, using an antisense oligonucleotide with that chemistry incorporated for a target. I don't believe we've disclosed the target yet. That candidate, it looks great in preclinical models. That's our first reentry into pulmonary disease in the inhaled route of delivery.
We're hoping to start IND tox studies in the second half of this year, and then you could do the time line. The tox goes well, if we complete it next year in enough time in advance, maybe we can start a clinical study end of next year. Maybe it will be 2028. We'll see about that. But pulmonary is advancing forward nicely.
All right. I think we have one more question, and it's from Denis on behalf of Gary Nachman from Canaccord. Where are you currently with the Angelman study in terms of enrollment completion? Is there any color that you can provide on the baseline characteristics enrolled thus far in terms of age, gender, location and maybe how it compares to the original Phase I/II trial you ran?
Yes. So let me back up. Our Phase III program for Angelman syndrome has a pivotal study for people, I believe, between the ages of 2 to 18, nearly about 200 patients or so, give or take, all being dosed at 80 milligrams quarterly in that study. And that's the dose that showed the best evidence of efficacy in our Phase I/II HALOS study across all measurement tools as well as all clinical measures for each of those tools, Bayley-4, SAS-CGI as examples.
Very encouraging data there. We expect enrollment is going really well. There's a lot of enthusiasm for our Phase III study. And we expect to complete enrollment this year with Phase III data next year. We haven't provided more granularity than that, but we'll certainly announce when we complete enrollment for that study.
And the other part of the question, but I think pretty much covered it. I'm sorry, that's what I was going to say. In addition to the pivotal study, we also have additional studies going in parallel for the newborns between newborn to 2 years of age as well as in adult patients.
And in our Phase I/II HALOS study, we actually showed good evidence, strong evidence that even the adults were benefiting, not just the teen the 2- to 18-year olds in the study. And of course, we all know based a lot on Ionis research, drug discovery and development that the earlier you can treat neurological diseases, the better you are.
So we believe that the greatest benefit will actually be getting to those newborns as quickly as possible. And that's why we initiated the infant study, which is now underway.
And the second part of these questions are about the competitors' readout this year. So he wants to know what are the read-throughs that we could expect from the trial readout later this year for the competitor drug? And is there anything you could do to change your Phase III trial after seeing those results?
So let me just start by saying that we're pulling for all modalities to have success for the treatment of these devastating diseases that we're tackling, right? We think options for patients is best. It's best for all parties, patients, HCPs as well as sponsors.
It just lends to greater success for everybody. But I will also say that let's not forget the fact that Ionis has been in CNS diseases for multiple decades now with great success. I talked about the drugs that are already approved and the proof of concepts and the drugs to be approved later this year as well as proof of concepts that are coming that we've already achieved in neurological diseases.
We're using a chemical platform in our Angelman's program that's essentially identical to SPINRAZA and QALSODY and TAU, all the drugs that have shown value, zilganersen for Alexander's disease. So it's a proven platform. The competitor that is going to have Phase III data later this year is a very different platform, very different approach, very different dosing in the study.
But we are very much looking forward to the results later this year because it will be the first randomized controlled study using an oligonucleotide approach for Angelman syndrome. Can we learn from that?
Sure, we can learn from it. Can we modify our study in certain ways within limits. Within limits, we could potentially do we expect to? Probably not. We like the design of our study. It's very well designed. It's based on our Phase I/II ALS study, which was very successful. And it's using a platform that's proven. But certainly, we'll be paying attention to it, and we're very hopeful that they have success.
And we have time for one last question from Ted. Is there a priority review voucher associated with the approval of the Alexander disease drug?
No, there's not. We do have breakthrough therapy designation, priority review. Okay. Well, those are all great questions. I really, really want to thank everybody for listening and your participation in our shareholder meeting today.
I very much enjoyed it. And I think you agree with me that based on all the progress that I've summarized for all of you today and additional successes we've had that I didn't have a chance to get to that many of you are aware of, Ionis is really, really well positioned to really drive value, tremendous value, accelerating value for all Ionis stakeholders, our shareholders, HCPs, the medical community and most importantly, to the patient community.
So thank you for listening. Really proud of the update we've been able to give today and stay tuned. There's a lot more coming from Ionis.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Special Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Special Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Ionis stellt sich als kommerzielles Biotech-Unternehmen dar: mehrere Launches, PDUFA‑Termine 2026 und Ziel für positiven Cash‑Flow 2028.
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Transformation: Ionis hat sich von einem F&E‑Hinweis zu einem integrierten, kommerziellen Biotech-Unternehmen entwickelt und beginnt unabhängige Produktlaunches.
- Pipeline‑Cadence: Zahlreiche near‑term Katalysatoren mit mehreren Phase‑III‑Readouts und erwarteten Zulassungen noch 2026/2027.
- Finanzziel: Erwartetes Breakeven des Cash‑Flows 2028 bei weiter steigendem Produktumsatz.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Kommerzialisierung: Erste unabhängige Launches (Tryngolza, DAWNZERA) laufen und Außendienst/Market‑Access in den USA zentral.
- Fokusindikation: Kardiometabolik und Neurologie bleiben Priorität; mehrere wholly‑owned Programme mit Blockbuster‑Potenzial (z.B. Olezarsen/Tryngolza für sHTG).
- Technologie & Follow‑ons: Weiterentwicklung von Chemien (MsPA, half‑duplex ASO) und gezielte Follow‑on‑Moleküle zur Dosisreduktion (z.B. jährliche Gabe).
🔭 Neue Informationen
- PDUFA‑Termine: Olezarsen/Tryngolza für sHTG 30.06.2026, Zilganersen für Alexander‑Krankheit 22.09.2026.
- Umsatzprognose: US‑Peak für Olezarsen erhöht auf >$3 Mrd.; kombinierte Peak‑Prognose für nahe Programme >$5 Mrd. Produktumsatz plus >$2 Mrd. Royalties.
- Regulatorik & Launchs: Drei erwartete Produktlaunches 2026 (u.a. Olezarsen, Zilganersen, Bepirovirsen) und zahlreiche H2‑2026 Phase‑III‑Readouts (pelacarsen, eplontersen, ulefnersen).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- China‑Strategie: China ist derzeit keine Priorität; Ionis favorisiert Partnerschaften für ex‑US‑Kommerzialisierung.
- Labeling & Payer: Management gibt keine Details zu FDA‑Labeling; erwartet jedoch, dass Kostenträger sich an Zulassungstext halten und Off‑label‑Einsatz begrenzen.
- Technologiefragen: Half‑duplex ASO und MsPA‑Chemie werden als vielversprechend beschrieben, aber noch in präklinischer/early‑clinical Evaluation; Follow‑on‑Programme zur Dosisverlängerung hohe Priorität.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Für Aktionäre: Deutlich erhöhte Near‑Term‑Catalyst‑Dichte und eigenständige Launch‑Erfahrung erhöhen Upside‑Potenzial; Risiken bleiben regulatorische Entscheidungen, Erstattungspolitik und klinische Ergebnisse. Ziel: positiver Cash‑Flow 2028.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — RBC Capital Markets Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Thanks, everybody. Luca Issi, Senior Biotech Analyst here at RBC Capital Markets. And today is our great privilege to have Ionis Pharmaceuticals as part of our 2026 Global Healthcare Conference. Representative of the company, we have Holly Kordasiewicz, who is the Chief Development Officer; Holly, thanks so much for joining us. How are you doing today?
Great. How are you?
Good, good, good, good. Yes. We have a list of questions. But maybe before we go into the specifics, it will be fantastic if you can maybe talk a little bit big picture about what progress has the organization made over the last few months and kind of most importantly, Ionis?
Yes, absolutely. So it's been an exciting time. We had our first 2 independent launches last year with TRYNGOLZA in FCS and DAWNZERA and HAE. We're, of course, planning for 2 PDUFA this year. For again, we have TRYNGOLZA for sHTG coming up in June. Hopefully approval and then launch. And then at the end of the year, we have Zilganersen for the treatment of Alexander's disease, which is our first wholly owned neurology program that we'll be launching.
Following behind that, we then have 5 Phase III readouts this year. The first is bepirovirsen, of course, this was positive. The data is going to be presented later this month at EASL, we then have 2 cardiovascular outcome trials reporting out later this year. One is cardio transform for ATTR-CM and then, of course, pelacarsen, the HORIZON study looking at Lp(a) lowering. And then behind that, we have a robust mid-stage pipeline that's advancing, and of course, our partners at Biogen just last week announced the tau program and that they're going to be advancing that into Phase III clinical testing. So busy times but lots of opportunities for continued growth in 2026 and beyond at Ionis.
Got it. Got it. Super helpful. I'm going to start asking you about your questions now. I know you're not going to answer. But I'll ask anyways. Obviously tau data fresh off the press. Biogen presented the top line data last week. It sounds like the data is good enough for them to actually pursue a Phase III trial. Just tell us a little bit more about what is your reaction to that top line data? And is there any context you can provide in terms of like what benefit they have shown in terms of [ CDR ] sum of the boxes or ADAS-Cog and how does that benefit kind of compares to the a-beta antibodies, like I think that's some of the questions we're getting from investors. So any comments would be much appreciated.
First to start, I will be excited about this program and this data for the 80 patients and community. This is a new mechanism of action. So here, we are using an oligonucleotide to lower tau. So we're lowering intracellular tile because we're stopping production of tau. So a new way to go after the disease. In our Phase I study, we had robust reductions in CSF tau, which is our pharmacodynamic biomarker as well as reversal of tau PET. So it was the first time in an AD brain, where we actually showed clearance of pathological tau. So that biomarker data in the CELIA Phase II study, which Biogen just reported on last week, it replicated. So we have those nice reductions in CSF tau and tau PET. And then it also showed, and this is what it was designed to do, a benefit on cognitive endpoints. And they were unprecedented. It is the first time anyone has shown this with tau. They are in line with what has been shown with amyloid therapies and, in some cases, exceed it. So very encouraged by the data. It met Biogen's prespecified endpoints for going into a Phase III.
So excited that they're advancing that. They have the data that gives them confidence to do that as well as the data needed to select dose and design that next study.
Got it. Got it. Super helpful. Any context on how placebo has formed in that trial. Obviously, we're seeing, especially in small data sets, sometimes placebo underperformed or overperformed can magnify the benefit or underrepresent the benefits. Is there any context of what placebo has shown in that trial?
So fortunately, in the space, we have lots of data on how this should perform in this patient population. And there's nothing in either the biomarker data or the cognition data that says it's not performing as expected.
Got it. That's super encouraging. What about the lack of dose response, if you will. I mean, obviously, Biogen have mentioned that the cohort that showed the best cognitive benefit was actually the lowest dose, which is obviously a little counterintuitive. I guess, what's the best way to rationalize that. If I recall it correctly, the lowest dose is also the one that has the smallest end. So could that have been confounding and amplify the benefit? Or how should we think about that part.
I think so. So all doses showed a benefit. That's the important point is all those has showed a benefit. And there's overlapping of all of that data. And so this isn't unexpected given the doses that were used in the target engagement that we observed. And that will all become clear once the totality of the data is presented at AAIC in July.
Right? I guess we stay tuned for dead data that is obviously coming. Maybe just pivoting to severe hot progress. Obviously, the PDUFA date is only 6 weeks away. How do you feel about it? Are you guys already in discussions with the FDA?
It's progressing as planned. We feel excellent about it. Of course, this is Phase III study where we had beautiful data, efficacy data. Here, we had an 85% reduction in AP events in people with high triglycerides. And so that we also received a breakthrough therapy designation based on that data. and that gives us a lot of confidence going into the discussions with regulators. Everything is on track for that PDUFA date on June 30.
Got it. Got it. That's actually helpful. I think when you look at the data set, there's maybe a little bit of a worsening in liver fat. And again, it's -- the magnitude of the increase in liver fat is relatively modest. But how should we think about how that data will be potentially reflected on the label? Do you think that that's going to only be in the diverse sections of the label? Could there be something more? Could this be like a REMS or a black box warning or how should we think about the...
No. So. it is well tolerated in CORE-1 and CORE-2 studies and in the ASCEND study. So we do not expect any monitoring or anything like that. This is -- to be clear, this isn't a safety signal. This is a biomarker signal that does not correlate with any sequelae or any other safety signals or biomarkers. This is information that has been shared broadly with HCPs. They have no concerns about this given, of course, the benefit profile that we see with TRYNGOLZA. And so taken together, this is not of a concern. This is on mechanism. This isn't unexpected, given that we are drastically lowering triglycerides over 70% in the Phase III studies, that rapid clearance of triglycerides it's going to end up in the liver.
Another important thing is that we're following these individuals over time from the CORE-1 and CORE-2 studies, they were all able to roll into an open-label extension where we're continuing to monitor this for over 2 years. And over time, we're seeing stabilization and then coming back towards baseline.
Got it. Got it. That's actually helpful. For severe hypertriglyceridemia, how are you thinking about the TAM. Because I think, obviously, there are a lot of patients out there that have severe hypertriglyceridemia. However, when you look at the patients that have severe hypertriglyceridemia and a history of acute pancreatitis is the TAM is much smaller, maybe like single digits type of percentage when you reflect on the 3 million versus the one that have historic pancreatitis.
So is this going to be a aimer prevention type of drug for patients that don't have the historic pancreatitis will receive the therapy? Or do you think the scenario the payers will restrict the access to this drug to primarily the patients that have historic pancreatitis up? How we think about it versus secondary prevention?
Yes. So we've set this program up specifically not to restrict access. So there's 3 million patients that have high triglycerides over 500. Within that 1 million patients, we consider a high risk. And those are the original patients that we'll be focusing on. Everybody over 80, which then puts them at severe risk and then over 500 with history of acute pancreatitis, and that's still 1 million patients. So that's where we'll be starting. But we will get to all those patients then at 500 and above that do have risk of acute pancreatitis.
Got it. Got it. That's helpful. Maybe pricing, it feels like your thinking around pricing has evolved over time. And you now obviously have settled to $40,000 as the -- your WAC. However, your competitor last week came forward with $45,000 WAC. And again, I think they have an argument that maybe their drug is dosed less frequently, and they could have some pharmacological properties that are different versus your molecule? Like -- what's your take on what was your reaction to Arrowhead actually pricing their drug of $45,000 versus $40,000?
So our approach is entirely data-driven. So we first did HCP research. We're using our CORE-1 and CORE-2 data. So with our Phase III data, we took that out to understand demand once we understood demand with existing Phase III data in hand, we then were able to talk to payers and work out the pricing implications based on that as well to find a price that would get us the broadest access to the most individuals, so not limiting the access but still having a favorable price. And then that's where we learned it on the $40,000 WAC.
And so for our -- for the other company, they don't have Phase III data yet. They don't have information in sHTG. And so we did a data-driven approach.
Got it. Got it. That's helpful. Obviously, the company has guided peak revenues. And I think that has been a little bit of a moving part. I think you guys started with $1 billion, then I think JPMorgan was $2 billion, I should say, $1 billion plus, then became $2 billion plus and now most recently is $3 billion plus. Walk us through like some of the assumptions in your model that got you there? Is it just simply a function of price? Or there are other variables, including either access or discontinuations or walk us through the evolution from $1 billion to $3 billion. That's a big delta.
So the first [indiscernible] it was demand eased on the data. So the Phase III data was excellent. We had an 85% reduction in acute pancreatitis events. This leads to a number needed to treat in 1 year in the high-risk group, the over 80 of 4. So only 4 patients need to be treated at 1 to prevent an acute pancreatitis attack and only 20 patients in that larger population. So with that really remarkable efficacy data, we then took that out and did the demand research. And it was the initial demand research that led us from that $1 billion to the $2 billion. And just the sheer number of patients, the doctors are planning on prescribing this for. Then once we got to the $2 billion, then we did the pricing work. And we had initially assumed a lower price.
And then once we had done that work in hand to make sure that we weren't restricting access to the broader patient population that we would still be able to get the drug to everybody that we need to get it to, and that's where we increased it from $2 billion to greater than $3 billion.
Super clear.
And just to say it, this is a population that didn't exist before we had this drug and the way that we're now thinking about it. So this growth isn't unexpected given that we're just learning as we're doing this and generating the data.
Yes, yes. And certainly conversations with payers and what not, obviously influence some of these assumptions, so makes to sense to me.
Maybe, again, going back to your competitor, I think investors are under age their seats waiting for the SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 data. Again, their trial is designed slightly different than your trial, ruble smaller trial. There's also some differences around randomization. So we're not -- what's your take? Do you think that Arrowhead had a chance of hitting the second -- key secondary endpoint of reduction in acute pancreatitis in a statistical significant fashion?
I think they have a good chance it's going to be really hard to beat. It's a high number, but I think they have a good chance at it. And that's actually favorable in that having 2 people out or 2 companies out on the market is only going to help, as we just discussed, that this is a new market, it's a growing market. And so having more voices out there to help raise awareness is going to help those patients.
And we certainly have seen that movie over and over again with more players, there's also often market expansion there. So it's sometimes it's not about market share, but it's more like market expansion.
So maybe if I can pivot to Angelman, which I know it's your bread and butter, if you will. Maybe just talk about big picture of what data have you seen so far? Maybe just remind us about differentiations versus Ultragenyx and maybe just walk us through what's next year. Maybe if I can, quickly, things that comes up in conversations with investors a decent amount. Can you just refresh our memory for why Biogen ultimately decided to pass on that program.
Yes. So first of all, this is a neuro development disease. So this is not a degenerative disease like some of our other CNS programs where we see decline. These are individuals who they develop cognitively to about the age of a 2- to 4-year-old and then they stay that way for the rest of their lives, and they have a normal lifespan. So what we've seen in our Phase I study, which is our open-label HALOS study, it was an improvement across domains and across measures. So these individuals have motor, communication, cognition, this function. And across the board, we saw benefits across all those various domains. As you would expect, if you were restarting neuro development, which is the mechanism that we think will be happening by targeting the underlying cause of the disease.
We also saw this across measures that were physician administered, physician reported and parent reported. So it's nice in an open-label setting to see consistency in the data across different ways of collecting it. So we have a benefit across these different domains, a restarting of development that appears to be happening in individuals that really just have stable development once they hit that peak at about 2- to 4-year-old neurotypical development.
And so with that, that gave us confidence to go into the Phase III study. The Phase III study is enrolling right now. We plan to complete enrollment for that this year. It's a 1-year primary endpoint in the REVEAL study, and so then that will read out next year. And then in terms of Biogen and why they passed, there was risk in the endpoint. They wanted to derisk that. They wanted more information. We did not want to give any more time. This is a program that we very much wanted back. We wanted to build our neurology portfolio. We had pivoted as a company from just an R&D company to an R&D who is going to then take things through commercialization. We saw this as a really attractive fit, as you can imagine, with Alexander disease, which is launching later this year, assuming approval. And so in total, this is something we want back. We didn't want to negotiate. They want to negotiate and so it's ours.
Got it. Got it. Got it. That's super helpful. What's your take on the Ultragenyx approach? I think it's fascinating to me that there are splitting alpha actually between 2 separate endpoint, right? So obviously, they have daily store cognition and they're spending most of the alpha on the Bayley-4 cognition, but they also spend some of the alpha who MDRI, which is more of a composite endpoint. You obviously, you have a different approach here because you have a separate primary endpoint using expressive communication as a primary point. Have you -- are you potentially considering doing something similar where you split the alpine, -- you maybe have kind of 2 shots on goal? Or what's your take there?
So we'll see the data. So right now, we are focusing on our primary endpoint, which is expressive communication. This is the #1 thing that is most important for caregivers. There was a listening session last year with the parents overwhelmingly said, I want my child to be able to tell me when something is wrong to tell me what they want. These individuals, most of them are nonverbal. So as you can imagine, it's very difficult for the family. So that's the main thing that they care about. It was also the thing that we saw the greatest effect on earliest and it had the most stable natural history, so the most stable baseline. So it gives you the biggest delta for, in effect, in a Phase III study.
And so with that, we have confidence that we have a meaningful endpoint. It's also clinical meaningfulness. The expressive communication is if someone is communicating, they're going to score higher on it. So it has inherent meaningfulness in that. That's very different than some of the other endpoints, which are building blocks, how do you judge the clinical meaningfulness of building blocks, where clinical meaningfulness of communication is implicit. And so that taken together, we're happy with where we're at. But of course, we'll see the data. We'll see the data. This is one of the benefits of coming second is that we can see that readout and then adjust based on data as necessary.
Got you. Can you expand on adjusted necessary? Like I mean, I guess, what are you primarily focused on is to see the data from Ultragenyx? It sounds like their data is coming late this summer. So like what are you primarily focused on? And do you have optionality in your protocol to amend the protocol and maybe make the protocol -- maybe your trial either longer or bigger like talk us through on some of the moving parts there and how you're thinking of potentially adjusting your trial base their data.
So we're looking for the placebo effect. So nobody knows the placebo effect in Angelman syndrome at this later time point. There has been shorter studies, but there haven't been 1-year long studies with these clinical endpoints in Angelman. So that's the #1 thing to look at because all the data generated to date is open label. And so seeing that will be very meaningful. And then, of course, how the different responses are. Now if they don't have a robust response, that's -- that's not surprising, given that they're using a very low dose, but we will pay attention to that as well. And then in terms of adjusting things like our SAP can be easily adjusted.
Got you. And especially because they're going to probably read out at the time where your trial is not fully enrolled yet. Would that be a fair assumption at this point or not necessarily?
No, not necessarily. We're not giving out any of those kind of data.
But you're saying...
Can change.
But you're saying that the trial will be -- your trial to fully enroll second half of this year? Is that...
We haven't given the details this year.
Okay. Okay. Okay. That's helpful. Maybe one last question on Angelman. Maybe just remind us the commercial opportunity here, should it tryouts work? How many patients are out there? Maybe I know it's preliminary at this point, but just any commentary at high level or how you're thinking about pricing?
Yes. So this is a -- there's 100,000 individuals, we think, in the U.S. in major markets, and this is a rare neurological disease. So we expect it to be similar to previous to other rare programs that we have, assuming positive Phase III data in efficacy.
SPINRAZA type of pricing or too early to comment...
Too early to comment. We're within that rare neural range.
Okay. Okay. That's helpful. You mentioned cardio transform. I think a lot of people are obviously eager to see that data. I think you presented recently the baseline characteristics. I think you highlighted that -- this is much more of a contemporaneous population. So like there's a lot more patients on tafamidis to baseline or more patients on SGLT2 are baseline and what not. So -- just maybe just remind us how you design your trial and at the end of the day, how confident are you -- I believe you now have 3x the number of patients that Alnylam had on HELIOS-B on tafamidis baseline, I think it's 819 but they only had 259 patients tafamidis -- is 819 patients tafamidis baseline, a large enough sample size that you think you can actually hit the stats as add-on to tafamidis.
Yes. So that is not the expectation. So it is not powered for statistical significance on the secondaries. We did release the study design recently. And as you can see, at 6 in the hierarchy. So it is in the secondary hierarchy, but it is 6. So everything else would have to hit to get there. And so we are encouraged, though, by the size of the study. We intentionally designed this as a very large study, as you mentioned. We have more folks on tafamidis than there were in the total previous studies. And this will give us information about how it's behaving.
So the expectation for this study is on par with what the previous silencer data has looked like. And then anything with tafamidis is going to be on top of that and upside.
Got you. Got you. Okay. That's helpful. You mentioned earlier LOI's probably one of the biggest catalyst in medicine maybe to is going to be the next cholesterol, who knows. However, I think you powered a trial to show a 20% to 25% benefit depending on what sub populations you're looking at. However, it feels to me that some of the recent commentary from Novartis kind of implies that maybe the benefit could be a little more modest. So maybe instead of 20% to 25% relative risk reduction, this could be more like in mid 10% or 15% relative risk reduction. Should that be the case? Do you think that, that would still be a commercially viable product?
Yes. So nobody knows what the rate risk reduction is going to be. That's the trial that we're doing right now. This is another first for Ionis, where we're asking for the first time, if you lower the largest untreated risk factor in cardiovascular disease, what kind of benefit can you have? And so we'll find that when the trial reads out. The question on is 10% to 15% enough yes, and that's really from research and talking to KOLs and getting feedback from the community on what they would need to see to treat. And the answer is that 10% to 15%. So that's where that shift is coming from. And it's really based on the fact that with the human genetics -- this is very clear that this is an independent risk factor. So you can control everything else, you can get the LDL down extremely low, and you still have this risk that's coming from the Lp(a).
So because there's nothing to treat it because this is an on mechanism directly on target treatment that they would then do that.
Got it. Got it. That's actually helpful. That's actually helpful. Maybe just fill into the out of PDUFA date did you have upcoming Alexander disease a small indication, maybe just talk about what would an approval for the community, which would be obviously huge given the unmet medical need. And then I mean how confident are you in approval, again, technically, I believe the p-value was 0.0412, so relatively close to the 0.05 kind of magic number. So like how do you feel about probability of approval at this point?
We hit that tag on a primary endpoint that's clinically meaningful for patients. in an ultra-rare patient population. So very excited about that. We got breakthrough therapy designation because of that. So confident going into this that there's a path forward. and a very clear one and straightforward one, given that we have that beautiful data.
And what this means for the community is an excellent question and most important, the outpouring from the community has been just overwhelming when we announced this data. They have nothing. This is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that affects children that affects adults. It is almost always ultimately fatal. It affects most systems. And so there's motor, there's cognition. There's across the board effects that these families are dealing with in these individuals. You hear the parents talk about it.
And the kids game a new developmental skill and then they lose it because the disease progresses. And so they work so hard to get something and then they lose it. And what we've shown in the data is a stabilization. And then if you have that stabilization in the motor endpoint, which is the primary endpoint that once they make those gains, they can keep them.
And then we also have in the secondaries, they all favored zidinersen and that -- so that targeting of the underlying disease is providing that broad benefit for the individuals. So with that, in totally, very excited about this program and to get this to patients. We have an EAP open. It's enrolling very well, lots of enthusiasm brand to continue to try to get this to as many folks as possible.
Got it. I have a lot more questions, but limited time. Thanks. Appreciate your time. Thanks, everyone, for joining, and we'll talk soon.
Thanks again.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — RBC Capital Markets Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Ionis stellt 2026 als Jahr mit hohen Einsätzen dar: zwei PDUFAs, fünf Phase‑III‑Readouts und Ausrichtung auf eigene Kommerzialisierung.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: 2026 ist stark katalysatorgetrieben: TRYNGOLZA PDUFA (sHTG) am 30. Juni, Zilganersen (Alexander) Ende Jahr, plus fünf Phase‑III‑Readouts.
- Strategie: Wandel von reiner Forschung zu R&D‑plus‑Kommerzialisierung; Partnerprogramme (Biogen) und eigene Launch‑Vorbereitung laufen parallel.
- Markt: Management sieht großes adressierbares Patientenpotenzial und will breite Erstattungszugänge durch datengetriebene Preisfindung.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- TRYNGOLZA: PDUFA 30. Juni; Phase‑III‑Daten zeigen 85% Reduktion von akuten Pankreatitis‑Ereignissen und NNT (Number Needed to Treat) von ~4 in Hochrisiko‑Subgruppe.
- Preissetzung: WAC (Wholesale Acquisition Cost) bei $40.000, Ergebnis umfangreicher HCP‑ und Payer‑Forschung mit Ziel breiter Zugänglichkeit.
- Pipeline: Bepirovirsen (positive Daten, Präsentation bei EASL), CardioTransform (ATTR‑CM), Pelacarsen (Lp(a), HORIZON) sowie Biogens Tau‑Programm nun Phase III.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Termine: TRYNGOLZA PDUFA bestätigt (30.6.); Zilganersen als potenzieller Launchkandidat Ende Jahr.
- Datenupdates: Bepirovirsen wird bei EASL vorgestellt; Biogen‑Tau repliziert CSF‑Tau‑Reduktion und kognitive Signale und geht in Phase III.
- Guidance‑Update: Management nennt inzwischen ein Peak‑Revenue‑Potential >$3 Mrd. (grundlegend daten‑ und Nachfragebasiert).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Tau‑Daten: Ionis wertet Biogen‑Resultate als bestärkend; starke Biomarker‑Signale (CSF‑Tau, Tau‑PET) und kognitive Effekte wurden berichtet.
- TRYNGOLZA‑Sicherheit: Anstieg der Leberfettwerte kommentiert als biomarkerbedingtes, nicht‑clinically‑relevant Signal; kein zusätzliches Monitoring erwartet.
- Kommerz & TAM: Zielstart in hochriskanten Gruppen (~1 Mio. Patienten); Preis/Access‑Strategie soll Einschränkungen vermeiden; Wettbewerb könnte Gesamtmarkt vergrößern.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Kurzfristig mehrere binäre Katalysatoren (PDUFA, mehrere Phase‑III‑Readouts) mit großem Umsatzpotenzial, aber weiterhin hohes klinisches und kommerzielles Ausführungsrisiko; Investoren sollten Newsflow und Zulassungsentscheidungen eng verfolgen.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
So conversation, I think, is not surprisingly going to start with just the commercial opportunity for olezarsen in sHTG. And you've got an important FDA action date coming up here, June 30. So maybe just talk about how you're positioning for your first major launch as a company. Commercially, you've launched this drug Tryngolza for an ultra-orphan indication, but now you're migrating to [ sHTG ] with a very big market, a more complicated probably end market, I would imagine. And so maybe just level set in terms of how Ionis is getting ready for kind of a transformational event for you as a company.
Yes, sure. Let me begin with FCS because that's the current indication for Tryngolza. Patients with a genetic cause of severely elevated triglycerides. The commercial launch for Tryngolza has been very, very strong, very positive. And the HCP demand -- patient demand, for patients that have FCS has been very, very strong and continues to get stronger and stronger week by week. That's been driven by the overall therapeutic profile of the medicine as well as the sentiment from both patients as well as HCPs who are managing these patients.
These patients are feeling really good. They're seeing their triglyceride plummet. Many of them into -- well into the normal range, and they're seeing a prevention of acute pancreatitis, which, of course, they live in fear of all the time. That launch will continue through the expected sHTG launch that you referred to on June 30, a PDUFA date June 30 with priority review and breakthrough therapy designation. We reported Phase III data for sHTG last year that was just groundbreaking with an 85% reduction in acute pancreatitis and triglyceride reductions on top of standard of care that exceeded 70%, really, really groundbreaking results. And we're leveraging that data. We've leveraged that data to get priority review.
This is a multibillion-dollar product opportunity for Ionis, is a wholly owned program, and it puts us into prevalent diseases for wholly owned programs and launches that you referred to. We are well prepared to launch into this multibillion-dollar product opportunity. We have trained -- we have hired and trained our field team. They've been out in the field educating on severe hypertriglyceridemia for cardiologists, endocrinologists, with the specialists, but also they've also been identifying accounts. Physicians who are managing these patients at high numbers with high numbers, high volumes of patients that are being handled by these physicians. So we're targeting these patients. We're identifying the high prescribers, and we're going to be ready to launch in June, assuming an on-time approval on June 30.
When we think about the key learnings from the FCS launch and how they're applicable to sHTG, I recall when you were initially launching FCS, there was a lot of discussion we had about patient finding, right, genetic component to the disease. Here, when we think about something much more broad, right, those early adopters of Tryngolza for FCS, how important are they to sHTG early adoption? And maybe just talking about how much broader you need to reach now with the sHTG indication with that disease?
Well, it's very important because the physicians who manage FCS patients are also managing sHTG patients. And we built tremendously positive sentiment in that community. Because they see the efficacy and the excellent safety, the tolerability that Tryngolza is offering. And what we're hearing from those physicians is this is great for my FCS patients. I've identified more FCS patients. I want to put them on Tryngolza. When can I get access to Tryngolza for my severe hypertriglyceridemia patients, which, of course, on a volume basis, we're seeing many more of there. So it's launching from FCS to sHTG has provided a big advantage for us. And of course, we are first to market in FCS. We're going to be well ahead of any competition first to market in sHTG, which has been -- which is going to be really important.
Okay. In third quarter, there will be some competitor data for another APOCIII-modulating agent. And you have about a 1-year head start to the competition. And I'm just kind of curious how you view the competitive dynamic, right? Like is 1-year first-mover advantage material? Or ultimately, hey, this is a big market, 2 players more than enough to support 2 players, and it may actually be advantageous to have 2 companies out there investing and building out this market opportunity.
In the United States alone, there's more than 3 million people with severe hypertriglyceridemia. About 400 or 1,000 of those patients today are being treated ineffectively really with generic fibrates and fish oils. So this is a growth market. This is an untapped market and a market with high unmet medical need, and there's room for multiple players and more players in this space that deliver effective medicines will only grow that market out even further.
With that said, there's -- we're really thrilled, and we believe it's a big advantage to be first to market. Because it allows us to identify those high-volume treaters and get to those high-volume treaters. Those treaters who are treating the patients that are at the highest risk for acute pancreatitis or cardiovascular disease, which will be the priority to get those patients in as quickly as possible. So we're going to access to those patients more rapidly and secure those patients. As I said, the experience with Tryngolza and FCS has been wildly positive. So we're expecting that sentiment to translate to sHTG. Patients will stay on drug, and we'll continue to accelerate that by really over a year advantage at the market. In addition, it allows us to set up accounts with payers and build a relationship with payers, set price, which we did for our WACC price for sHTG. So there are lots of different advantages that we're taking full advantage of as first to market for sHTG.
So these drugs are effectively being positioned as pancreatitis-sparing drugs, right? Ultimately from the core study results. And so as you think about these individuals who had past events, right? I would imagine they are that initial first adopter, right, of the therapy, most highly motivated. Is that your sense? Are these patients -- is your feedback from physicians, KOLs that these are the types of patients who might be more asking about when a therapy like this can become available? Are they because of these past events perhaps under the care of a specialist who might be aware of clinical stage data as opposed to maybe more of a community-based doctor?
Out of the gate focus will be on the high-risk patient population. One segment of that high-risk patient population are patients that have had a history of acute pancreatitis. The other segment of that population is patients that have triglycerides 880 milligrams per deciliter and above. They're at high risk for their first time AP event, if they haven't had one yet. The motivation by patients that have had an AP event in their past is extremely, extremely high as it is HCPs, of course, because there's nothing they can do for patients that come to an ICU with an AP event. It is incredibly painful. Patients don't want a second event. So they are highly motivated.
However, HCPs that are managing patients with triglycerides and above, whether they've had an AP event in the past or are also highly motivated because they want to prevent that first AP attack from happening. Once you have AP attack, the chance of having additional attacks goes up exponentially, leading to organ dysfunction and destruction. So it's -- HCPs are highly motivated whether or not they have had a history of AP or not, but certainly, patients that have had AP, they don't want another one.
All right. Great. Maybe just help reconcile you revised the pricing in advance of the sHTG launch for pricing to be more in line with a broader market opportunity that is sHTG. I guess just trying to understand that versus some comments recently about wanting to wait -- payers wanting to wait until they see a final label to have more meaningful discussions. Is that just mechanical, right? Like payers just need to fundamentally have a label? Or are there specific label outcomes that you feel like are going to drive access relatively PA to label, like a PA that matches study entry criteria? Because if that were the case, that would suggest broad access, I would argue.
So let me start with the $40,000 WACC price that we announced for sHTG that went into effect on April 1, how we got there. That price was the product of 1.5 years, maybe even 2 years of research with payers and HCPs. We first had to -- once they have the Phase III data to understand which HCPs are going to prescribe Tryngolza to which sHTG with what priority based on the Phase III results. As I mentioned, the Phase III results were groundbreaking.
We then took that HCP demand research to payers to understand where their limits would be with respect to putting in place blocks of -- NDC blocks or other blocks that would delay access for patients due to price being too high. We believe that we've threaded the needle perfectly to maximize access and to maximize value with a $40,000 WACC price. The conversations, the discussions we've had with payers have been deep, intense, very positive, very productive. We are aligned on the $40,000 WACC price. We do not believe the label is going to impact access in any way. We kind of know what the label is, and that's what we presented to payers.
We received breakthrough therapy designation, which basically gets translated to the ultimate indication saying, which is patients with sHTG as defined by triglyceride 500 and above as an adjunct to diet, and that's the label we expect. We do expect acute pancreatitis to be in the label probably in the clinical trial section because the results were so statistically significant and was a prespecified secondary endpoint. And it's important to have it in there. With that said, we don't think that that's going to drive adoption because everyone is aware of the AP data already for publications and presentations. And certainly, the payers are aware of it, and that has resonated extremely well with them to prevent ICU hospitalizations, prevent potential fatal outcomes and so on. So payers are...
The last point you made, the omission of the language that is in some triglyceride lowering therapies front page to say this drug has not been studied for pancreatitis reduction, whereas you've now studied it. I imagine that label language will be deleted from a [ Tryngolza ] label for sHTG. Is that right? And sales reps not sort of alluded to the fact that, that label language is now...
Yes, absolutely. We do not expect -- obviously, it was studied for AP outcome, and it was highly successful. So it will -- that statement will not exist in the label. In fact, we'll have AP data that we expect to have in the clinical trial section of the study. The other point I think might be worth mentioning is guidance, clinical trial or clinical treatment for FCS and sHTG, the guidelines. The Tryngolza is indicated in the guidelines for FCS, and we expect that Tryngolza will be in the guidelines for sHTG pretty quickly after approval as well. The guidelines were adjusted very quickly. And Tryngolza singled out as a treatment for FCS, we think a similar same thing will happen for sHTG.
That recommendation presumably will be tied to the pancreatitis outcome benefit. I know there's some theoretical possibility, right, that in like a comorbid diabetic patient lowering trigs might actually have cardiovascular benefit, but that hasn't been studied. I doubt it will ever be studied. But if you can speak to how you'd envision guidelines and recommendations evolving within the launch of the product?
I think the guidelines will be focused on the triglycerides. If patients are above 500, they need an APOCIII inhibitor and Tryngolza will be the first one out there by a long shot to be the treatment for to manage sHTG. It will not be in the guidelines for managing cardiovascular outcome because we didn't study that outcome, as you pointed out.
With that said, although the high-risk patient population that we're focused on is primarily patients that are above 80 and/or have a history of acute pancreatitis. There are a lot of patients that have triglycerides well above 500 that have cardiovascular disease -- and that -- those are the other comorbidities that round out the million-plus high-risk patient population. Cardiologists recognize that having triglycerides that high puts them -- predisposes them to cardiovascular risk, and they're going to want to get their triglycerides down to the normal range, which we achieved more than 80% of the time in our sHTG Phase III trial. So we do believe that, that's going to be an added benefit for the sentiment towards prescribing Tryngolza is also those patients that have a history of cardiovascular disease because they recognize that this is a contributor to cardiovascular disease.
Okay. And then just circling back to price. I believe both you and your competitor have declined to speak specifically about kind of what gross to net would look like over time. But can you just maybe remind us about payer mix? Because I imagine with the government plan patients, there will be some mandatory rebating that needs to be offered. And I imagine like rare orphan comps and maybe even oncology drugs might be a good proxy for the spread between gross and net. So any high-level commentary that you can offer?
Sure. I mean what we can say is that when we first discussed the market opportunity in the U.S. for Tryngolza and sHTG in January of this year, we assumed the net price that we announced of $10,000 to $20,000. We're still doing our market research. So we have a lot more work to do, a lot more payer research to do. That was a net price that was used in the U.S.
As we developed our HCP demand research and then had our payer engagement research completed, we settled on the $40,000 WACC price. That's going to bring us in meaningfully higher than our original net price, which is the main driver behind our upgrading our peak product sales in the United States beyond $3 billion. We upgraded it from $2 billion to above $3 billion. And that's because our net price will be higher in that $10,000 to $20,000 range. Other than that, we're not -- we're really not going into more detail about net pricing and rebating at this time. Okay.
And maybe a few questions just on safety. Olezarsen safety looks pretty pristine. Do you think this is going to be easy drug to administer. Monitoring requirements can sometimes add a layer of complexity for the drug. Do you think this will be a drug that has many safety monitoring requirements tied to it in the sHTG setting?
Yes. No. I mean, first of all, FCS has no monitoring. It's a clean drug and no monitoring was required. That's one of the reasons why the launch has gone so well in FCS. And we don't expect monitoring in sHTG. Why would we? It's a very clean profile, extremely clean profile, and we don't see the need for monitoring at all. And right now, all of our discussions with the FDA have been going very smoothly, and that supports my conclusion.
Yes. Because what I wondered is there's obviously going to be a lot of work done to determine patient triglyceride level at baseline. I imagine they may look at something like liver fat at baseline and whether or not there might be any sort of requirement to follow and look at how both of those clinical measures are over time, presumably the same measurement.
We don't expect hepatic fat to be measured at all in the real-world setting on the market at baseline or any other time. Let me level set here a little bit. So in our Phase III study, we reported a small increase in liver fat in patients with sHTG that was dose dependent. It was small, but most importantly, there was no clinical sequela, no clinical outcome, no adverse events or reactions related to that, right? So there's nothing to monitor. There's no correlation with ALT.
MRI imaging of a lab observation that has no clinical consequences is just not something that would be required. It's just an observation. It's also an on-target effect. We know that from a competitor program that has a silencer that reported in Phase II, a dose-dependent increase in liver fat. And it makes complete sense. What we're working through using the APOCIII mechanism of action are 2 pathways that are substantially and rapidly lowering triglycerides in circulation. One is to break down the LDL particle, the triglycerides into fatty acid. The second is to clear through the liver very rapidly. And the liver does a very good job of clearing out the fat that much is true. But there was some residual liver fat that we saw in the -- at the 12-month time point in the Phase III study.
What I can tell you, though, is that we continue to monitor these patients that are in the open-label extension, and we're seeing as expected that the liver continues to compensate and clear out the liver triglycerides, we're seeing a return to baseline at 1 year, which further continues to get to baseline at 2 years, and we're going to report that data at a medical congress later this year. So we don't expect any monitoring.
Is it crazy to think, I think, with the WAYLIVRA liver fat went down, it was not GalNAc-mediated ASO, is it just noise?
I don't think it's noise. I think WAYLIVRA is a very different class of molecules. As you mentioned, WAYLIVRA, which was a first-generation non-GalNAc molecule was not directed precisely and exclusively to the liver. It was also used at a very high dose, a dose of 15-fold higher than what we used for Tryngolza. That's because it's not a GalNAc. WAYLIVRA is probably affecting APOCIII in other tissue beds, including the GI tract, which if you inhibit APOCIII in the GI tract, you will block chylomicron absorption and other aspects of triglyceride metabolism. So we think that it's a different animal entirely and that it's broadly distributed, whereas Tryngolza is distributed precisely to the hepatocyte and that's where we're getting our...
Okay. And then lastly, just the status of your semiannual APOCIII modulating therapy, when could we get an update on next steps? And how quickly could something like that move through development?
Quickly, the high priority for us is to focus entirely on less convenient -- or less frequent dosing, semiannual dosing or once a year dosing. And that conclusion is supported by the Phase I, II -- the Phase I data that we reported last year in patients with mildly elevated triglycerides, we are following cessation of dosing. We're seeing a lasting lowering of triglycerides in APOCIII that's approaching a year in duration with very, very high potency.
We're going to start the Phase II study in sHTG patients very soon and we expect to wrap that study up pretty quickly, and we're already discussing next steps to initiate Phase II development. So we're moving that forward rapidly. It's an entire -- the focus is entirely on less frequent dosing. It's going to be hard to match to exceed the data that we've already generated in Tryngolza. So it's really less frequent dosing.
Okay. Maybe shifting gears to DAWNZERA and HAE launch. This one is exceeding our expectations so far in the early going. And I know you guys have been firm that you think this is an underappreciated therapy and a big value add to the HAE setting. So maybe early observations in the launch. Anything exceeding your expectations? I know this is largely a switch market as you frame it. And so I imagine the early adoption is primarily coming from switches. So anything you can say to help us better understand what's going on in the early days there.
Yes. The demand by patients and HCPs has been very high for DAWNZERA as prophylactic for HAE. As you know, there are several other products already on the market for HAE prophylaxis. So this is a switch market, unlike Tryngolza, where we're first to market and the launch execution has gone exceptionally well.
We're very pleased with the demand. We have a free drug program to get patients on top of DAWNZERA as quickly as possible. It's about a month of free drug, and then that allows them to get the experience and then they're moving over to commercial very rapidly. So we're really, really thrilled with execution on free drug as well as on commercial drug. But we're thrilled about the demand for the drug and the compliance. Patients are staying on drug. It's reporting very, very positive experiences.
What has really been a surprise to us was -- has been how much the mechanism of action has really resonated with HCPs. They are so used to antibodies and small molecules and treating these patients their whole careers. Something new. We're targeting RNA for the first time, something different. And of course, the profile has supported that as well. It's a switch market. We're seeing switches from all other available prophylactic treatments today. The majority, of course, are Takeda [ TAKHZYRO ]. So because that's the majority of patients that are being managed today is on that medicine. So we're seeing switches from all the other prophylaxis we're seeing switches from on-demand treatment. We're also seeing newly-diagnosed patients coming on to DAWNZERA. So we're really pleased with the launch. It's going to be a big year for DAWNZERA.
And you mentioned the free trial program. What does the conversion rate look like once you're in that program? And do you have a line of sight? Is there a big queue of patients that are entering into the free trial program?
It's very high, the conversion. We haven't reported the specific numbers. We're not going to do that right now. It's competitive, but it's very, very high. And that's because the patients are getting great experiences with DAWNZERA on treatment.
Okay. Maybe we've got 5 minutes, so just some quick hitters here. But we know it timely given you published baseline demographics, I think, over the weekend. How would you kind of level set investors now that we have that data out there, see differences, your trial versus HELIOS-B and what that either portends in terms of added risk or opportunity, a lot of focus on the [ tafamidis ] combination data sets, right, to sort of be incremental for the [ silincer ] class?
Well, first of all, as by far the largest study ever conducted in ATTR cardiomyopathy. We're very well powered for a positive outcome. The first time that was approved for ATTR cardiomyopathy, just greatly supports our -- the likelihood for a highly positive outcome because we're getting TTR lowering as good, if not better, excellent drug profile and our study is more than double the size of any study that's ever been conducted in this patient population to date. So we're very well powered for the primary end point.
The baseline demographics that we reported this weekend really not a whole lot of surprises. There are more similarities between our program and the HELIOS-B study than there are differences. As we've signaled well in advance, the demographics continues to shift in cardiomyopathy. We've been saying that we're going to have more patients on baseline tafamidis that we're going to be adding on to in our study, and that's what we reported, about a 56% at baseline patients on tafamidis. It is not that much more than HELIOS-B, but more.
We also have some more -- a higher percentage of patients with a higher percentage of patients with New York Heart Class III, higher percentage of patients that are hereditary, because it more rapidly progresses. None of that puts any of the primary outcome, at any risk because our study is so large, it's so well powered. We actually think it is the real-world setting that is going to generate data that is going to resonate really well with cardiologists in managing patients. Because those are the demographics that patients -- that these physicians are managing today.
Patients are on tafamidis. They want to know, if they're not doing well. They're progressing. What evidence do you have that combination is going to actually provide further benefit. And our secondary endpoints are laid out, and we're going to have a very sizable subgroup in combination usage that we're going to be able to report on. So if there is a complementary mechanism between a silencer that stabilizes 50% to 70% and then knocking down the rest with a silencer, we're going to have the data to convince HCPs that combination is the way to go.
And if you generate that data, can you talk about that as like a Ionis-Astra company-specific benefit that could allow you to swing the competitive pendulum and potentially fulfill the promise on -- I think eplontersen. And you'd be the only company, I think, that could promote, right? This data and presumably gets at least in the clinical Section 14 of the label.
That's correct because it is a prespecified secondary endpoint. We elevated it to that. It's upside. It's significant upside. Our base case, AstraZeneca has reported this as well as $5 billion product opportunity for Wainua, assuming we replicate the other silencer that has come out that data. We're well positioned to do that. Additional data that is favorable, including combination usage is the key differentiator and is key revenue upside for this program. So that will be a very significant upside.
Okay. Where do you expect given some of the recent announcement on the prefilled syringe and for Part B, where this market is going to go, right, for you? You think it's going to be more of a Part D drug, more of a Part B, as in boy, drug?
So let me first start by saying that the ability to self-administer Wainua by patients themselves once a month has resonated incredibly well in the polyneuropathy launch and will be magnified many, many folds exponentially in a much larger cardiomyopathy indication. The ability to self-administer is a big, big differentiator. With that said, AstraZeneca felt that flexibility optionality would be very nice to have. So there are like those centers of excellence that do buy and bill. So they came out as they pushed forward a prefilled syringe that would be administered by a physician as a Part B approach for using a buy-and-bill strategy.
It's really just optionality that they can have. The primary driver for Wainua going forward will be the advantage we have with self-administration using a simple once-per-month injection, that is room temperature stable, can be carried around, taken on vacations and so on. That will still be the main driver.
Maybe 2-word answer. What are you most excited about between tau, Lp(a) and Angelman?
All of them. Pelacarsen is a big deal. We're looking forward to the data in the second half of this year. We're looking forward to the tau data in midyear this year. What we're hoping to see is data that supports moving to Phase III development. That's the first tau lowering drug ever in history, another first potentially for Ionis. And we love the Angelman program, but it's a little bit further out. We're expecting to complete enrollment second half of this year and then to get the Phase III data next year for that program. So I'll leave it there. And we're excited about all 3 of them.
All right. So thank you. With that, we're out of time.
Thanks, Jason. My pleasure.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Tryngolza steht im Zentrum: PDUFA 30. Juni, $40.000 WAC-Preis, First‑to‑market in sHTG, Upside >$3 Mrd US‑Spitzenumsatz; Sicherheit und Payer‑Zugang sind zentrale Themen.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Launch‑Ready: Ionis sieht sich vorbereitet für eine sHTG‑Zulassung (PDUFA 30. Juni) und baut auf dem starken FCS‑Launch auf.
- Kommerzielles Potenzial: First‑to‑market‑Vorteil, gezielte Ansprache von High‑volume‑Prescribern und Payer‑Engagement sollen ein multibillionen‑Dollar‑Markt erschließen.
- Preis/Value: $40.000 WAC wurde nach umfangreicher HCP‑ und Payer‑Forschung festgelegt und untermauert eine Upside in den US‑Prognosen.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Feldorganisation: Verkaufsteam geschult, Accounts mit hohen Patientenzahlen identifiziert, Fokus auf Kardiologen/Endokrinologen und Spezialisten.
- Payer‑Taktik: $40.000 WAC als Ergebnis intensiver Gespräche; Management erwartet, dass Label‑Formulierung keinen Zugang verhindert.
- Pipeline‑Optionalität: Semiannual (halbjährliche) APOCIII‑Formulierung in Phase‑II‑Planung; weitere Upside durch Wainua (TTR)‑Kombinationsdaten sowie Pelacarsen, Tau, Angelman.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Preis: $40.000 WAC, Wirkung seit 1. April; erwartetes Netto in der Größenordnung $10.000–$20.000.
- Studienergebnis: Phase‑III sHTG zeigte ~85% Reduktion von akuten Pankreatitiden und >70% Triglycerid‑Reduktion.
- Prognoseupgrade: Peak‑US‑Umsatz wurde von ~$2 Mrd auf >$3 Mrd angehoben, getrieben durch höhere erwartete Nettoerlöse.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Payer‑Zugänglichkeit: Diskutiert wurde, ob das finale Label Zugangsbarrieren ändert; Management meint nein, Payer seien bereits informiert.
- Sicherheit/Liver Fat: Kleine, dosisabhängige Leberfett‑Zunahme in Phase‑III ohne klinische Folgen; Rückkehr zum Baseline‑Niveau nach 1–2 Jahren in offenen Verlängerungsdaten.
- Konkurrenzdynamik: Ein Jahr First‑mover‑Vorsprung gilt als signifikant zur Gewinnung von High‑volume‑Prescribern und zur Festlegung von Preis/Erstattungsbeziehungen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Positive kommerzielle Perspektive vor der PDUFA‑Entscheidung; $40k WAC und First‑to‑market‑Position stützen ein deutlich höheres Umsatzpotenzial. Hauptrisiken bleiben Zulassungsfrist, endgültige Payer‑Verträge, real‑world‑Daten zur Leberfettdynamik und zunehmender Wettbewerb.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and welcome to Ionis' First Quarter 2020 Financial Results Conference Call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the over to Wade Walke, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, to lead off the call. Please begin.
Thank you, Sabrina. Before we begin, I encourage everyone to go to the Investors section of the Ionis website to view the press release and related financial tables we will be discussing today, including a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financials. We believe non-GAAP financial results better represent the economics of our business and how we manage our business. We have also posted slides on our website that accompany today's call. .
With me this morning are Brett Monia, Chief Executive Officer; Kyle Jenne, Chief Global Product Strategy Officer; and Beth Hougen, Chief Financial Officer. Holly Kordasiewicz, Chief Development Officer; Eugene Schneider, Chief Clinical Development Officer; and Eric Swayze, Executive Vice President of Research, will also join us for the Q&A portion of the call. I'd like to draw your attention to Slide 3, which contains our forward-looking language statement. During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations and beliefs. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially. I encourage you to consult the risk factors contained in our SEC filings for additional detail. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Brett.
Thanks, Wade. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Ionis entered 2026 with significant momentum, which continued to accelerate through the first quarter of this year. Our performance to date highlights our strong execution across the business, which positions us to fuel substantial growth for years to come. We are very pleased with the continued success of Tryngolza. Demand continues to grow, reflecting both a compelling clinical profile and strong launch execution by our team. The launch of Tryngolza is now also underway in Europe through our partner, Sobi, expanding access to this transformational therapy for people with FCS. We also continue to advance our launch of DAWNZERA. We're very encouraged by the strong early trajectory and the breadth of prescribers across patient segments.
Outside the U.S., DAWNZERA received European approval earlier this year and our partner Otsuka has now initiated launch activities across the region. Together, Tryngolza and DAWNZERA give us a strong foundation of a successful commercial execution as we look ahead to 2 additional independent launches this year with more to come. We are on track for the launch of olozorsen in severe hypertriglyceridemia, which represents our first independent launch in a broad patient population. We are pleased to have received priority review by the FDA with the PDUFA date of June 30, reflecting the significant unmet need in SHTG and the groundbreaking results from our landmark core and CORE 2 studies.
In these studies, we demonstrated profound and highly statistically significant reductions in triglycerides and acute pancreatitis events, along with favorable safety and tolerability. Today, based on HCP demand and payer research, we are increasing our annual peak sales estimate for olezarsen from greater than $2 billion to now greater than $3 billion, positioning olezarsen to become Ionis' first wholly owned multibillion-dollar medicine as the new standard of care for treating patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia. Zilganersen for Alexander's disease is our second planned independent launch this year and the first from our industry-leading neurology pipeline. Zilganersen is the first and only medicine to demonstrate clinically meaningful and disease-modifying benefit in Alexander's disease, a devastating and orphan fatal leukodystrophy with no approved treatments today. We submitted our NDA in January. And based on the results of our pivotal study, the FDA accepted our NDA with priority review and a PDUFA date of September 22.
Overall, we are on track to have 3 independent medicines for 4 indications on the market in 2026. Tryngolza for FCS and SHTG, DAWNZERA for HAE and Zilganersen for Alexander disease. This marks a major step in Ionis' Evolution is a fully integrated commercial biotech company. Complementing our wholly owned portfolio is our partner pipeline, a rich pipeline that continues to advance toward multiple value-driving events this year. Bepirovirsen our potential first-in-class medicine for chronic hepatitis B is on track to launch in the U.S. and Japan this year by our partner, GSK. And just this week, the per version was granted Breakthrough Therapy designation and and accepted for priority review by FDA with a PDUFA date of October 26.
Next month at EASL, GSK will present the unprecedented results of the Phase III program in which bepirovirsen achieved statistically significant and clinically meaningful functional cure rates in patients with chronic hepatitis B. We also remain on track for data from 2 major cardiovascular outcome trials from our partner pipeline this year. The pelacarsen Lp(a) HORIZON trial in patients with elevated Lp(a) and cardiovascular disease and the eplontersen cardio transform trial in transthyretin-mediated cardiomyopathy. Including these programs, along with pepireversen, we expect 5 partner-led launches by the end of next year, creating a diversified stream of royalties and milestones for Ionis with multibillion dollar potential well into the next decade. In addition to our commercial and pipeline achievements, we also delivered strong financial results in the first quarter.
As a result of this strong Q1 performance and outlook for the balance of the year, today, we are announcing a significant improvement to our financial guidance, which Beth will cover in details in a few moments. Ionis has achieved a great deal of late. Our pipeline and our launches are delivering tremendous value, and we continue to strengthen our financial position. But even more importantly, we are well positioned and committed to build on the success to drive far greater value for patients and our shareholders. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Kyle.
Thank you, Brett. As we enter 2026, Ionis is capitalizing on the exceptional launch momentum we generated in 2025 to drive even greater impact. We are set up for continued success with our independent launches. Tryngolza, demand is accelerating. DAWNZERA early launch metrics are tracking extremely well. And enthusiasm continues to build for our upcoming olezarsen launch in SHTG and zilganersen launch in Alexander's disease. Bingo continues to build on the strong performance from last year. Q1 was our strongest quarter in terms of demand with patient starts increasing significantly versus prior quarters and patients on treatment are doing extremely well. .
Our patient finding initiatives continue to identify appropriate FCS patients, and we are successfully converting prescriptions to patients on treatment. We are seeing ongoing expansion in both breadth and depth of prescribing with more clinicians initiating Tryngolza and existing prescribers writing additional scripts. Prescribers span a broad mix of specialties, including cardiology, endocrinology and lipidology, which is exactly the prescriber base we want as we prepare for the broader SHTG population. Physicians remain highly satisfied with Tryngolza's overall profile. Efficacy, safety, tolerability and the patient experience, and that is translating into an accelerating rate for new patient starts.
Additionally, we are highly encouraged by the updated ACC and AHA clinical practice guidelines, which singles out olezarsen as the recommended treatment to lower triglycerides and reduce pancreatitis risk in patients with FCS. Outside the U.S., our partner, Sobi, is now in the early stages of launching Tryngolza for FCS in Europe. This is expanding access for FCS patients and will bring in additional revenue over time. Following the groundbreaking CORE and CORE 2 data and SHTG, we conducted extensive market research with high-volume lipid specialists, cardiologists and endocrinologists. That work consistently showed a clear understanding that preventing pancreatitis is the key treatment goal in SHTG and that current options fall short. Strong recognition of all olezarsen's differentiated clinical profile, especially the acute pancreatitis data and the very low number needed to treat.
And HCPs have stated a high intent to prescribe across a range of patient types with initial use expected for individuals with triglyceride levels above 880 milligrams per deciliter, or above 500 milligrams per deciliter, with a history of acute pancreatitis or other high-risk comorbidities, including progressive cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. In line with our commitment to patient access and to a successful transition into the broader SHTG market, we recently announced an important pricing decision for Tryngolza. Effective April 1, we set the new annual wholesale acquisition cost to $40,000, which applies to the current FCS indication and will be maintained for the anticipated SHTG indication across both doses. Importantly, by establishing a new price ahead of the June 30 PDUFA date, we are integrating olezarsen into 2027 payer contracting cycles, positioning us for accelerating access following approval.
From a go-to-market standpoint, our full U.S. field organization is now in place, trained and deployed. Today, that team is focused on supporting Tryngolza for FCS and deepening our relationships with the key specialists who also treat SHTG. With this expanded footprint, we are positioned to engage approximately 20,000 high-volume SHTG prescribers across the country. The DAWNZERA launch is gaining significant momentum in what is largely a switch market in the U.S. We are seeing increasing adoption across all patient segments. Patients switching from existing prophylactic therapies, patients who were previously using on-demand treatment and treatment-naive patients. Our free trial program has been very effective with high conversion to paid therapy rate to date.
Just as importantly, feedback from both physicians and patients has been consistently positive, highlighting DAWNZERA's strong efficacy, its differentiated RNA-targeted mechanism, the positive switch data, which HCPs described as "differentiating and motivating" and DAWNZERA's patient-friendly profile that includes a self-administered auto-injector that can be stored at room temperature for up to 6 weeks. We are also seeing a growing base of repeat prescribers, which is a key indicator that Dawnzera is providing a substantial benefit for patients. While it will take time to fully transition appropriate patients off legacy therapies, especially in a well-established market like HAE. The launch fundamentals give us confidence that DAWNZERA will contribute significantly to the increase in our commercial revenue in 2026 and beyond. Outside the U.S., DAWNZERA is now approved in the EU and our partner Otsuka has initiated launch activities.
Over time, we expect ex U.S. markets to become an important contributor to the global DAWNZERA franchise. Finally, we are preparing for our first independent launch from our neurology portfolio with Zilganersen for Alexander's disease. On the back of the positive Phase III results, we now have FDA priority review with the PDUFA date set of September 22, and our expanded access program is underway. On the commercial side, our focus has been on continuing to strengthen current relationships and build new relationships with a highly specialized community of leukodystrophy and rare neurology HCPs, further advancing partnerships with patient advocacy groups, and ensuring the right support infrastructure is in place for diagnosis, treatment and ongoing care.
Our medical affairs team has been engaging with top leukodystrophy centers, sharing data and helping to build awareness of Alexander's disease. Our marketing and access teams are finalizing the launch strategy, and we will hire the customer-facing team closer to approval. Zilganersen is not only an important medicine for people living with Alexander's disease, but it's also a template for how we will commercialize future rare first-in-class neurology therapies emerging from our pipeline. With 2 independent launches building momentum, 2 additional launches anticipated this year, and a strong pipeline behind them. We believe Ionis is well positioned to change the lives of patients around the world. With that, I'll turn the call over to Beth. ?
Thank you, Kyle. The strong operational execution you've heard about this morning translated into very strong first quarter financial results. We delivered year-over-year revenue growth and maintained disciplined expense management while continuing to invest in our current and upcoming independent launches. First quarter total revenues were $246 million, an increase of 87% compared to the first quarter of 2025. This increase was driven by year-over-year commercial revenue growth from Tryngolza and DAWNZERA and substantial R&D revenue, including approximately $95 million of milestone payments from multiple partnerships. Commercial revenue increased over 42% year-over-year in the first quarter, driven in large part from Tryngolza and DAWNZERA growth. Tryngolza delivered over $27 million in product sales reflecting continued strong demand that was offset by an anticipated decline in net price. DAWNZERA contributed meaningfully to commercial revenue, delivering $16 million in the first quarter. an increase of 125% compared to the prior quarter.
Collectively, our expanding commercial portfolio positions us for robust revenue growth. and is expected to represent an increasing share of total revenue year-over-year. Operating expenses for the quarter were in line with expectations and increased to 29% year-over-year, primarily driven by commercial investments supporting Tryngolza and DAWNZERA and launch readiness activities for olezarsen in SHTG and Zilganersen in Alexander's disease. We ended the quarter with cash of approximately $1.9 billion. The change in cash from year-end 2025 was primarily related to $633 million we used to repay our 0% convertible notes, which were due on April 1. The strength of our balance sheet is the result of our prudent fiscal management which enables us to make strategic investments as we advance and launch our wholly owned medicine.
Our Q1 performance underscores the value of our diversified revenue model, which combines growing commercial revenue with substantial and recurring R&D revenue from partner programs. Based on our strong year-to-date financial results, accelerating launch momentum and positive outlook for the rest of the year, we are improving our 2026 financial guidance. We now expect total revenue in the range of $875 million to $900 million, an increase of $75 million versus prior guidance, with total revenue weighted slightly more towards commercial revenues. For the first time this year, we are also providing product level guidance for Tryngolza and DAWNZERA. We expect Tryngolza product sales to be between $100 million and $110 million for the full year. and generally in line with 2025 full year Tryngolza revenue. Our guidance assumes a significant decline in second quarter Tryngolza revenue based on the updated price effective April 1 and and a steady return to growth after the June 30 approval for SHTG. We are projecting Denver product sales to be between $110 million and $120 million for the full year. Our guidance assumes DAWNZERA will continue to be a significant contributor to year-over-year growth in 2026, with revenue steadily increasing as the launch advances. We also anticipate significant R&D revenue from existing collaborations, including potential development and regulatory milestones across our partnered portfolio demonstrating that R&D revenue is indeed an important financial accelerator.
In fact, we recently learned that the first patient initiated treatment in the Phase III program for salanersen, which triggered a $45 million payment we will recognize in the second quarter. Over the balance of the year, we also are eligible to earn additional milestones tied to sapoblirson, Vibro pelacarsen and other partnered programs as they advance. We expect our 2026 operating expenses to increase in the low-teen percentage range compared to last year. This modest increase reflects our commitment to financial discipline as we bring multiple medicines directly to patients and advance our pipeline. The key drivers of expense growth will be sales and marketing investments to support Tryngolza and DAWNZERA and to ensure successful launches for olezarsen in SHTG and Zilganersen in Alexander's disease assuming approvals.
We anticipate our R&D expenses to remain steady this year, similar to last year. As late-stage studies reach completion, we are redeploying our resources towards the drugs in our pipeline that we expect to fuel our next phase of growth. Our focus on improving operating leverage is enabling us drop the full increase in revenue guidance to the bottom line. As a result, we expect a non-GAAP operating loss between $425 million and $475 millionm a $75 million improvement over our previous guidance. This is similar to our 2025 operating loss after adjusting for the one-time sapablursen license fee we earned last year.
We are projecting a 2026 year-end cash balance of greater than $1.6 billion. This reflects the repayment of the 0% convertible notes, which were due on April 1. The strength of our balance sheet, combined with our diversified revenue streams supports our continued strategic investments in ongoing and planned launches as we advance our wholly owned pipeline. Our financial outlook reflects accelerating commercial launches, a progressing pipeline and a diversified revenue base, positioning us for continued growth and keeping us on track for cash flow breakeven in 2028. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Brett.
Thank you, Beth. First quarter and our outlook for 2026 underscore the strength of Ionis today. With 2 successful independent launches underway, 2 more independent launches anticipated this year, a robust pipeline advancing toward multiple near- and midterm catalysts and a solid financial position that supports the continued investments we are making to maximize the value of our commercial medicines and pipeline. With all these key elements in place, we're confident in our ability to accelerate revenue growth and deliver increasing value for patients and for all Ionis stakeholders. Now in closing, I want to highlight that this week at Ionis, we are holding our annual YWeek. It's a time when our employees come together to hear directly from patients and caregivers about their personal stories and reinforce our purpose, which is bringing better futures to people in need. I've never been prouder of the impact we are having on patient lives and clinical medicine, and I'm even more excited about the greater impact we are positioned to make in the near term and sustainably well into the future. And with that, we'll now open the call up for questions. Sabrina?
[Operator Instructions] the first question comes from Jessica Fye of JPMorgan.
2. Question Answer
So you once again raised peak expectations for Trungolza. Can you just spend a little time elaborating on what enabled you to increase it from at least $2 billion at JPMorgan to now at least $3 billion? And can you also talk about your expectation for gross to nets on Trungolza following this price reset?
Yes. Jess, thank you for the question. So our increase in peak product sales for Trungolza and SHTG and SCS combined in the U.S. to $3 billion was based on several factors. As you recall, we increased the price or the peak sales to $2 billion in January based really solely on the Phase III data and some preliminary HCP demand research that we had conducted. The demand was very high. Since then, we've completed our HCP demand research. But more importantly, we completed our payer research, which landed on our $40,000 annual WACC price, so price as well as priority review. Those are the biggest drivers of the increase in peak sales that we have put out today. As far as gross to net, we're not commenting on that at this time.
The next question comes from Mike Ulz of Morgan Stanley.
Congratulations on the progress. Maybe just a question on the Tungolva trajectory for the year. You mentioned return to growth in the second half, really driven by the SHTG launch. Just curious in some of your market research, are you picking up on maybe any pent-up demand? Could we anticipate a bolus early in the launch here, just given the groundbreaking data?
Kyle, would you take that, please?
Yes, Mike, I appreciate that. And I think what's important first is the strong performance that we saw in Q1 in terms of demand. We are -- it's the best quarter that we've had in terms of the FCS patient population, the number of scripts that were received and the number of patients that are starting on therapy. So that actually lends us a lot of confidence, not only in the FCS space, but also as we get closer to the June 30 PDUFA date in SHTG, I think it's indicating that there is a lot of interest in using olezarsen very broadly in this patient population. In terms of the launch in SHTG, we do know that there are a number of patients that are waiting, right, especially the patients that have a history of acute pancreatitis, patients that are above 880, and those are really the patients that we're going to focus on out of the gate. The trajectory, I think, is going to be modest at the beginning here in 2026.
I think the revenue guidance that Beth shared of $100 million to $110 million is consistent with that expectation, and we'll see it steadily grow over time with that focus being on the highest risk patient population. But some of the dynamics here, as typically seen is it takes some time for the HCPs to be educated on the label. We've got to get those patients into those centers in order to get the prescriptions and then get the execution of the scripts to turn into patients on treatment. So it will be a build over time, and it will accumulate, and we expect modest and steady growth throughout the back half of this year.
The next question comes from Gary Nachman with Canaccord Genuity.
Congrats on the progress. So again, on SHTG, -- just talk about how you expect the payer access to ramp up the timing of that, when you think it will really kick in -- and you got updated guidelines for FCS. Will you be able to get that for SHTG as well? And how long before you think you could expand to a less severe patient population over time?
Kyle, do you want to take -- do you want to start and I can touch on the guidelines. .
Sure. On the payer access piece, Gary, part of the price change decision that we made on April 1 to change the WACC price to 40,000 is directly with working with those payers, right? It fits into the annual review cycle as they're getting ready for their 2027 decisions to be made. So we believe that it will help us get ahead of SHTG a little bit, not only in 2026, but also will help us in anticipation of -- that being said, some payers or all payers will actually wait for the final label, right, before they make any payer coverage decisions. because they want to see what the indication statement is. They want to see what information is in the label, including acute pancreatitis and some of the other clinical study data. that will be included in the label. So it will take a little bit of time.
Some payers will say, we're not going to review anything for 6 to 9 months, for example, that standard policy with some payers. But we hope that we'll be able to get ahead of that with the payers that do review earlier by making that price change and also with our current interactions that we're having leading up to the SHTG approval. So we're going to work quickly, and I think we're in a good spot right now in terms of the way that we're approaching the payers. .
And Gary, to your other question, we were very pleased by the fact that the cardiovascular treatment guidelines for FCS, a single do Trengolza as the treatment of choice for this disease indication. And we applaud the aggressiveness that they are taking to update their guidelines for treatments. And we believe that SHTG will be part of that in the future, which, again, we believe Tryngolza will be a treatment of choice for severe hypertriglyceridemia. They've been very, very supportive of the new treatments that are coming out, and we think that they will move pretty quickly. We're also pleased by the fact that they have increased the -- or updated their guidelines on Lp(a) testing, which bodes well for a potential positive Phase III readout for pelacarsen and the subsequent launch. So -- it's great news for patients, and it's great news for our pipeline.
And in terms of the less severe patient population, we'll start with the over 880 and over 500 with history of However, those same physicians that are treating that patient population also have patients that are 500 to 880, for example. So the education will be ongoing. We're in the right segment HCPs in terms of our targets, right, focused on cardiology, endocrinology and lipid specialists. So they'll see a mix of those patients. So I think some of those patients will already be picked up, especially if they have comorbidities, type 2 diabetes and/or ASC -- but the broader population will take a little bit of time just for awareness and for more of the data and information to come out and more experience of using olazarsen in the SHTG population.
So there's a lot of optimism and a lot of excitement around the category and around the use of a product like this because they've never seen the triglyceride-lowering effects that they're going to see on top of standard of care and they've never seen the outcomes in acute pancreatitis like they've seen with the core and CORI data.
Next question comes from Jason Gerberry with Bank of America.
This is Chi on for Jason. On olezarsenSHTG, could you give us an update on the levels of liver fat you've observed in the core open-label extension studies -- to what extent those open-label extension study data have been incorporated into the NDA as the FDA reviews the totality of the safety data -- and when would you expect to present the updated OLE data later this year?
Yes. Let me start, Chi. Thank you for the question, and then I'll pass it on to Eugene. Maybe you can comment on where we are in the regulatory process for SHTG briefly. But we're very pleased with the ongoing open-label extension data that we're continuing to accumulate with respect to MRI assessment of hepatic fat fraction. As you recall, the increases in hepatic fat that we saw were relatively minor, interested with other modalities that have taken that silencing approach in lowering APOCIII in this patient population. And it's completely logical, based on the mechanism of inhibition of APOCIII which leads to a rapid and substantial clearance of triglycerides in large part through the liver. .
And we've always felt that the changes that the observations in liver fat that we've seen here, again, no clinical sequelae associated would be transient based on deliver just needing to have a little bit more time to clear out the delivery that's coming -- that's been shunted through delivered. And that's what we're seeing in the long-term extension data. We're seeing a return to baseline in liver fat. Again, no clinical sequelae associated with anything in the long-term extension. And we look forward to presenting the data in the second half of this year at a major medical congress. So stay tuned for that, Eugene, you want to provide an update on regulatory?
Yes. The applications under review. Everything is going as planned. Of course, the emerging safety data has been provided to the agency as part of routine day 90 safety update. So that's under review now with no questions asked so far. .
I'll also add that the discontinuations in the long-term extension are extremely low. We're seeing excellent compliance with long-term treatment in the open-label extension. So stay tuned. We're very much looking forward to presenting the results.
The next question comes from Elly Merle of Barclays.
This is Tejus on for Eli. -- in FTE, you have a set of competitor readout coming up later this year. Curious just how you would frame those data in the context of the space and if any outcomes there would impact your peak sales view and SHTG.
We'd rather not comment on competitor data that doesn't even exist yet today. I mean, we're looking forward to seeing any additional data that comes out this year, next year and years to come in SHTG from other programs. All I'll say is that the Phase III data that we presented at American Heart Association and the late breaking clinical trial session last year is incredibly compelling. It's going to be -- it's a very high bar to me with respect to efficacy, with respect to safety, with respect to tolerability, 85% reduction in acute pancreatitis which has resonated very well in the HCP community, as Kyle highlighted earlier in his prepared remarks, 72% reduction in triglycerides on top of standard of care. We're focused on our program. We're ready to launch in June, and we're not -- and I'll just leave it right there.
I'll just add, this is a large market, greater than 3 million patients that are potentially addressable here. We have a lot of confidence in the greater than $3 billion peak that we've put out there. That's really based on the Phase III clinical trial outcomes that we have. It's based on our HCP demand research. It's based on the comprehensive payer research that we've done and also the final pricing decision that we made. So we stand behind the increase, and we're excited about launching this program and getting it to as many patients as possible after the June 30 PDUFA date. .
The next question comes from Jay Olson with Oppenheimer.
Congrats on the quarter, and thank you for this update. Maybe I'll shift gears to DAWNZERA. Can you talk about how you expect the competitive landscape to evolve in HAE and any feedback that you're getting from patients and physicians on DAWNZERA? And any color that you're getting on what percent of patients are currently on every 8-week dosing.
Yes, happy to, Jay. Thanks for the question. The competitive landscape obviously is evolving. I mean there was some recent announcement as late as this week related to some of the dynamics in the marketplace. Keep in mind that in the United States, over 75% of the patients are currently on a prophylactic treatment. This is a switch market as we understand the dynamics to be. And we are really pleased with the momentum that we're seeing in terms of the interest in using DAWNZERA, which is the first RNA-targeted therapy modality in order to treat these patients. The patient and HCP feedback has been extremely positive when they've been able to transition over to DAWNZERA or start as a naive patient. What led into this in terms of our market research is consistently being played out in the market. Really, this is about efficacy, it's about tolerability and convenience. And all 3 of those things are stacking up very nicely with the profile of DAWNZERA, and patients are responding very positively to the therapy.
Now the majority of patients start on a 4-week dosing schedule. This is to make sure that they get transitioned over that they're well controlled and then they have the option for the labeled indication to move over to every 8 weeks if they choose to do so. So as early in the launch as we are right now, you would anticipate that the majority of patients would be on a 4-week regimen. And we will expect over time that they'll be able to progress on to an 8-week schedule as they're doing well on therapy and we saw that in the clinical trial as well. So patients are doing great. Momentum is very strong, and we're encouraged by what we're seeing in terms of the metrics with the launch at this point.
The next question comes from Moritz Reiterer with Guggenheim Securities.
This is Moritz for David. I'll continue on, on era. Your 2026 guidance for DAWNZERA is essentially above what consensus was going into the quarter. So I was just trying to understand a little bit better what data drove this guidance number. And also if you could comment a little bit more on the current mix between new patient starts versus switches and how you expect this to evolve through the end of the year.
Yes, I'd be happy to touch on that. Thanks for the question. We had a very strong first quarter, $16 million in net product sales. This is a 128% increase over Q4 and I just spoke about the momentum that we're seeing in this market and the dynamics and also the receptivity by both HCPs and patients as they get started and gain experience with DAWNZERA. So all of those things that I just described are really what is encouraging us, and I think where we feel very confident that $110 million to $120 million in sales this year is very achievable. In terms of the new patient starts, the majority are switches, right? This is a switch market, greater than 75% of the patients are on a prophylactic therapy in the United States. .
So it's going to take time and time to build the revenues quarter-over-quarter. But it's happening the way that we expected it based on what we're seeing in the trends with Q4 as well as Q1. In addition to that, we are seeing some patients that haven't been on a prophylactic therapy before start on DAWNZERA. So those patients, in addition to those that are being treated with an acute therapy only today that are starting on DAWNZERA. Those 3 patient segments, I think, speak to the fact that the profile is very strong in what patients and HCPs are looking for. We have a differentiated mechanism of action. And our sales execution and market access teams are doing a great job in terms of supporting these patients to get started and stay on treatment.
The next question comes from Yaron Werber of Cowen.
This is Steven on for Yaron. Congratulations on the progress. On the collaborative revenues for the rest of the year and for maybe 2027. Can you talk about what you're projecting because those came out a bit higher, I think, than consensus may have. Further on zilginersen, can you talk about how many patients awareness efforts have found any new updates to the size of the market. You had mentioned before that about 50% of patients have been identified. Any updates on sizing there would be helpful.
Do you want to start and then Kyle, take the second part. .
Sure. So on the collaborative revenue for this year, the way to think about is we've raised our revenue guidance for the total year to $875 million to $900 million. That is slightly weighted towards commercial revenue, so you can think about that split being slightly more weighted towards commercial revenue versus R&D revenues. Obviously, we've already realized and recognized $95 million in milestones plus our ongoing collaborative revenue, which put us well over $100 million, closer to $130 million, $140 million for the first quarter. We've got a host of other milestones that we could potentially earn over the remainder of this year, plus our ongoing collaborative revenue from renew a cost share and amortization.
So that is all the items that really give us confidence in the overall collaborative revenue for this year. And then for '27, we've got think about it this way. There's some very large potential milestones for approvals coming in '27 with the Phase III data that we're expecting to see from from pelacarsen, in particular. And those milestones are likely going to drive collaborative revenue in '27.
And our launch preparations are going really well, right?
Yes. For Zilganersen, I just -- I want to just reinforce the excitement that we've got around this program. This is going to be our first anticipated neurology launch program and to be able to potentially bring this therapy to patients living with Alexander's disease, I think, is really an exciting opportunity for the community and also exciting for Ionis. In terms of the approach here, we're really going to be focused on the patients that are currently on the clinical trial in helping get those patients moved over so that they can maintain treatment. The second area that we'll focus on are patients that are going to be enrolled in our expanded access program, which is ongoing and going very well. .
And then as you asked, what about the patients that are currently being identified and how do we help get those patients on treatment. We believe that there are approximately 300 or so Alexander's disease patients in the United States. About 50% of those have been identified thus far. Some of them are on therapy that I just referenced. But we are doing some expanded work through our omnichannel and through our nonpersonal promotion campaigns to help identify more and more of these patients. And really, what we want to make sure of is that they have the opportunity to experience sogonersen as the patients in the clinical trial did to potentially have the positive outcomes that we're seeing in that trial.
So patient identification will be a key area of focus. And we're doing that while we're really making sure that we're going to take care of the patients that are on treatment today and those that are awaiting treatment that have already been identified.
The next question comes from Luca Issi of RBC Capital Markets.
A quick question on why now. What happened to for the quarter. Drug is actually down 35% versus the fourth quarter what drove the weakness here? And it looks like AstraZeneca is flagging the availability of the drug now as a prefilled syringe to be administered by a healthcare provider. Did that have a negative impact on gross to net? Any color there is much appreciated.
Yes. So in Q1, we continue to see very strong demand in terms of patients on therapy as well as new patient starts. So demand is still there. Oftentimes, you see some some January, February pressure as it relates to reauthorizations and the timing of those reauthorizations, which drove some of the pressure early in the quarter. But we expect to see that pick up in subsequent quarters and return to revenue growth as we move into Q2 and beyond in the U.S. You asked about the prefilled syringe. Really that's been put out there for optionality, right? It's flexibility of dosing and it's to allow HCPs to determine if they want to use the auto-injector or if they want to be able to treat these patients in some of the major centers with the prefilled syringe.
So it's really optionality for the program. That is not impacting the gross to net at this point. It's way too early to see any impact of that. And so I would just keep an eye towards future quarters. And again, this is the hereditary polyneuropathy space. The market is growing rapidly in the cardiomyopathy space and the eye towards cardio transform readout and getting ready for that launch is definitely where the line of sight is.
The next question is from Yanan Zhu with Wells Fargo Securities.
Great. So wondering for the FCS, you mentioned continued growth in demand. Could you help quantify that a little bit? In terms of percent growth, given that the price change making it difficult for us to appreciate. And then can you talk about how to think about SHTG in 2027, what kind of growth could we expect from the initial launch quarters in 2026. Obviously, you guided for peak revenue, $3 billion. Any sense that how long that might take? Any color would be super helpful.
Yes, and let me start and then I'll -- and Kyle already touched on what the expectations are for 2026 launch in SHTG -- you can cover that again, but maybe comment on 2027. But for FCS, as Kyle mentioned earlier, our first quarter of this year is our strongest quarter to date. -- on patient demand and gaining access to Tryngolza for FCS. And that's purely a product of patient finding and the great experiences, the HCPs and patients are having with Tryngolza in managing their disease from an efficacy standpoint and from a tolerability standpoint. So demand has never been higher. We're thrilled with what we're seeing, and we think that, that's going to bode quite well for the SHTG launch trajectory.
Yes. I think what's important, again, is to mention that in 2026, the revenue guidance is $100 million to $110 million for olazarsen this year. We expect that to grow steadily over time. As I also described, the focus initially is going to be on the high-risk SHTG patient population, over 880 or over 500 with history of -- and then as we get into 2027, I would expect that more and more patients will start to come on board that are broader than that, Type 2 diabetes, ASCVD, et cetera, as I described, and the launch momentum will build. And so will the patient base as we get these patients on as HCPs get experience in seeing the triglyceride lowering levels and seeing the reduction in acute pancreatitis that were demonstrated in Core and Core 2. And I think that experience and that evidence ultimately will help us drive the trajectory into next year.
The next question comes from Salveen Richter of Goldman Sachs. .
This is Mark on for Salveen. -- are -- you kind of touched on the Doner quarterly dynamics, but we were wondering what are the specific drivers for the quarter-over-quarter jump? And are there quarterly dynamics we should be aware for the rest of 2026? And how are you thinking of these dynamics going into 2017 and beyond?
Yes. The real quarter-over-quarter growth is coming from the switch cadence that we are expecting to see, right? This being a switch market, and we expect that to continue throughout the course of this year. But that's the big driver, right? We know that there's a need. We know that the profile of DAWNZERA meets the need of many of those patients being efficacy, tolerability and convenience. And we've got the data with the Switch data to help support how to move those patients over from existing prophylactic treatments over to DAWNZERA. And as HCPs are gaining experience, we're seeing more and more HCPs not only prescribed for the first time, but we're also seeing those that have used the treatment before, use it again and again. .
So I think that plus payer coverage tells us that we've got an optimistic outlook in terms of what 2026 looks like. And I think the $110 million to $120 million guidance is in line with that expectation.
And we have time for 1 more question, please. .
The last question comes from Myles Minter with William Blair.
Congrats on the car. Just on the TTR cardiomyopathy market, if I did settle for a potential generic entry from Vindemax in mid-2031 versus something like in 2035. Does that change the way you're AstraZeneca are thinking about the cardiomyopathy moving market moving forward? And how much emphasis you're going to place on that are stabilized of background therapy subgroup in cardio TTR transform.
The news that has been emerging this past week or so on genericizing tafamidis versus brand pricing is not come terribly surprising to us. is consistent with our product sales guidance that we've put out there with AstraZeneca previously. We believe we remain completely and believe that the filing or class will end up being the mechanism of choice for TTR amyloidosis. We believe that the silencer class will be utilized as first-line treatment. -- as well as in those patients that inevitably progress on stabilizers and combination usage to your question. We'll also be will be utilized very, very robustly, especially if there's data supporting that combination usage will add further benefit to these patients that inevitably are progressing on current treatments. .
And our study is designed to actually generate the data that we believe could be convincing to HCPs who are asking the question whether or not a combination of a stabilizer with a silencer will add further benefit to these patients. So -- it's the largest study ever conducted in ATTR cardiomyopathy and the combination subgroup is quite sizable. So we're looking forward to the data in the second half of this year. and we're prepared to submit the NDA by the end of this year and to launch next year. So thank you, Myles, for that -- thank you for the question, Myles.
Thank you, everybody, who joined us today and participated on our call. We're looking forward to an outstanding year and sharing our progress along the way. So until then, thank you, and have a great day, everybody.
Goodbye.
Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Starke Q1‑Performance und Anhebung der Jahresprognose; mehrere unabhängige Zulassungen/Launches 2026 treiben Wachstum.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: $246M (+87% YoY)
- Produktumsatz: Tryngolza >$27M; DAWNZERA $16M (Q‑QoQ +125%)
- Meilensteine: Ca. $95M R&D‑Meilensteine im Q1
- Ausgaben: Operative Aufwendungen +29% YoY (Launch‑Investitionen)
- Liquidität: Kassenbestand ≈ $1.9Mrd; Jahresend‑Prognose >$1.6Mrd
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Kommerzialisierung: Ionis positioniert sich als vollständig integrierte kommerzielle Biotech‑Firma mit bereits zwei unabhängigen Launches (Tryngolza, DAWNZERA) und zwei weiteren erwarteten Launches 2026.
- Wachstumstreiber: Erhöhte Peak‑Prognose für olezarsen auf >$3Mrd (vorher >$2Mrd) gestützt auf Phase‑III‑Daten, HCP‑ und zahlermarkt‑Forschung sowie Festlegung des jährlichen WAC‑Preises von $40.000.
- Payer‑Strategie: Preissetzung wurde vorgezogen, um in die 2027‑Erstattungszyklen zu passen und frühere Gespräche mit Kostenträgern zu ermöglichen.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Umsatzguidance: $875M–$900M für 2026 (Erhöhung um $75M gegenüber vorheriger Guidance)
- Produktguidance: Tryngolza $100M–$110M; DAWNZERA $110M–$120M (volljährliche Sparten‑Prognosen erstmals angegeben)
- Ergebnis: Non‑GAAP Betriebsverlust erwartet: $425M–$475M (Verbesserung um $75M)
- Regulatorisch: olezarsen PDUFA 30. Juni 2026; zilganersen PDUFA 22. Sept. 2026
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- olezarsen‑Upside: Anhebung auf >$3Mrd begründet mit finaler Payer‑Forschung, Preisentscheidung und hoher HCP‑Nachfrage; Management nannte keine Details zum erwarteten gross‑to‑net.
- Payerzugang: Erwartung, dass Preisänderung April 1 die Einbindung in 2027‑Erstattungszyklen erleichtert; einige Kostenträger prüfen aber erst nach endgültigem Label (6–9 Monate möglich).
- Sicherheit & OLE‑Daten: Fragen zu Leberfett (MRI) in Open‑Label‑Extension: Management berichtet geringe, meist reversible Änderungen ohne klinische Folgen; weitere OLE‑Daten in H2 erwartet.
- Launch‑dynamik DAWNZERA: Markt ist überwiegend ein Switch‑Markt; Mehrheit startet initial mit 4‑wöchiger Dosis, viele step‑down auf 8‑wöchig.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bedeutung: Deutliche Re‑Risikoreduktion: angehobene Guidance, starke Liquidität und klare Launch‑roadmap stützen Wachstumserwartung. Hauptrisiken bleiben Payer‑Deckung, unbekanntes gross‑to‑net und laufende Sicherheitsbeobachtungen; Aktie bleibt lancierungs‑ und regulatorisch getrieben.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Stifel 2026 Virtual CNS Forum
1. Question Answer
Great. Thanks very much, everybody. It's my pleasure to be here with Holly Kordasiewicz to talk about the Ionis neuroscience pipeline. Holly, instead of asking you to just give like some prepared remarks, do you mind if we just like get right into it? Is that cool?
Sure. Sure.
All right. Sweet. Thank you. Okay. So I am like super, super excited for this tau readout coming up later this year. But I think one of the things that's hard to really answer in research about tau is the whole correlation causation question, which was a question with amyloid for a long time. Obviously, the correlation piece was like somewhat disproven. But as it relates to tau, can you just talk about like tau as a target and put into context and then the evidence for tau is like a causitive part of the biology of Alzheimer's?
Yes. So first, we can start with the correlational pieces in the pathology. So tau pathology actually correlates better with cognitive decline than amyloid does. And so for there, that bit is already stronger. There's 2 ways that tau has been implicated in Alzheimer's disease. The first is, of course, the pathology and that correlation with the pathological spread of tau correlating with cognitive decline, but then also the function of normal tau. So the endogenous tau, if you lower that, you take that out in animal models, you can protect against AD and Abeta-driven AD. And so those 2 elements taken together suggest that tau is an important target for Alzheimer's disease.
Okay. Great. Sorry, I muted myself. So okay, makes sense. And I guess on the safety side, like what do we think the role of tau is actually in healthy brains? And do we think it has a role in adults? And do we think it's going to be okay to lower all forms of tau at the gene model?
Yes. Yes. So the short answer is yes. So we've seen absolutely nothing to date that suggests that partial lowering wouldn't be tolerated. There's nothing in the animal models or genetics. In fact, as I mentioned before, if you take a full knockout mouse with no tau and you cross it with an Abeta mouse, the Abeta mice do better. They have less disease. It also protects against excitotoxicity.
So it protects against genetic epilepsy. It also protects against chemically driven excitotoxicity. So tau full 100% knockout actually have a protective function in the animal models. In human genetics loss of function isn't associated with anything, any diseases, it's all gain of function or splicing mutations that are associated with tau-driven disease. So there's really nothing to suggest that there's going to be an issue with tau lowering. That said, of course, we want to be absolutely careful and continue to monitor this as we go through our clinical trials.
What do we think causes tau misfolding and aggregation? And when do we think that happens in the disease?
Yes. So excellent questions. We don't exactly know. So it probably happens early. And we do know that it shows up early in the disease course and that it progresses throughout the disease course. We also don't know how much is driven by tau pathology. And then as I mentioned, that other role of tau and the endogenous tau function leading to potential increased excitotoxicity and which of those elements are contributing more to the disease. It's possible it's both. It's possible. It's one driven at a different time period than the other.
Do we think it happen like with Abeta, right? I mean this is one reason why I'm really excited for the presymptomatic readouts, but like we think that, that starts at 0 like plus or minus 10 years, whichever way you want to directionally do it. Is tau -- do we think tau comes into play presymptomatically, too? Or does it really come into play when you have like MCI appearing?
Yes. So tau can -- you can have tau pathology early on. It is typically thought of it happening after and downstream of Abeta, but that's not consistent across all patients. So we can't -- it's not that simple of a pathology, and it's going to be different in different individuals based on what their underlying disease is. If it's more tau driven, if it's more Abeta driven, if it's more inflammation driven, what their ApoE phenotype is, all of that is going to change this.
Was it surprising to you that the antibodies for tau showed like nothing -- like I understand that they don't lower intracellular tau. But the whole idea of like stopping the spread from area to area like -- like are you surprised that they didn't even show a trend?
No. I mean there is some hints of stuff in the antibody. I don't think we can discern that much. But no, because trying to catch the tau pathology as it spreads between neurons is really hard to do. So we don't know exactly how it's transmitting from neuron to neuron if it is in that extracellular space so that it could be captured if it's moving through vesicles or other means between those neurons.
So to actually be able to capture that, to be able to prevent it from getting into those neurons completely so that you prevent that spread is hard to do because if you think about how tau seeding works, if you get a small seed in that neuron, then all that endogenous tau that's in that neuron can then misfold. And that's been shown over and over again in lots of different systems. And so to prevent all pathological tau from entering into a neuron to prevent that neuron from then misfolding its own intracellular tau is really tough to do.
Yes. Yes. Okay. Maybe talk about the data you have on PET and like how confident can you be that you're lowering tau enough in the right areas of the brain that matter with intrathecal delivery of an oligo.
Yes. So in our Phase I/II study, we were able to look at tau PET, and we were able to actually see a reversal in tau PET. So not just preventing a progression, but the tau PET that was there before treatment went away. And so because we were able to see that reversal of tau PET, that gives us confidence that we're targeting the brain regions that matter. And all the regions that had tau pathology have that reversal.
And so because of that consistency, it gives us a lot of confidence. Now that said, we know how our oligos distribute. We have a lot of preclinical data. We have a lot of experience with IT oligos. And so this is something getting distribution to the important brain regions was something we're confident going in and the tau PET is just really nice confirmation of that for the technology and then also exciting because it shows that reversal, which had never been shown before in an AD.
Yes. Yes. No, it's amazing. So I think you lowered tau PET maybe 60% of the hippocampus. Is that the right ballpark? With amyloid, I think we learned over time that like 70% is not enough, right? 80% like remember the whole aducanumab post hoc thing, which was best for a variety of reasons. But with amyloid, it's like you got to like obliterate it. Like do we have confidence that 60% is enough in the key area of the brain? Like what would you point to?
So that's the question that we're answering right now in the Phase II study in the ongoing CELIA study. That's the exact study we're answering. So we have looked -- Biogen did a really nice post-hoc analysis from the Phase I/II study where they compared the clinical data to an external control. So they use the TANGO studies. They did a propensity match control comparing it to our BIIB080 treated our tau oligo treated individuals and all those individuals that favored BIIB080 in terms of all their cognitive performance and functional performance. That said, it's a post-hoc analysis. It's small ends, but that was enough to give confidence that this could be in the right ballpark for having a benefit.
Yes. Okay. There are every 6 and every 3-month arms in this study. What would you say your confidence is that every 6 is going to be in like the right knockdown reduction range, given that it's been so hard to get uptake with these Abeta antibodies and people obviously wonder about intrathecal...
Yes. So you just got to that question that we were asking is how much tau do you need to lower and to what extent to have the biggest effect size. And so that's the key question that we need to answer. So we have a lot of experience dosing drugs in the CNS. We also know that our tau oligo lasts a long time. So from the Phase I/II study, we stopped dosing and then we looked at a 6-month recovery and it was flat in the high dose groups. There was no recovery over those.
Interesting. Okay. So that suggests every 6 months should be good enough.
Yes. So we had that gap between when we stopped the study and we started the LT specifically to look at this and it didn't recover. And so with that, that gives confidence that it could be enough. But again, if you need really significant reductions, you might want that quarterly dosing to get stronger reductions. And so that's why just to make sure we had all bases covered, we have both included in the study.
Are you giving a loading dose for the [indiscernible] arm?
No.
No. No loading dose. Okay. Okay. Okay. Interesting. Anything else you'd add on tau?
No, just that it's really exciting. The data readout is midyear this year and to see it.
Yes. I guess I have Biogen on the panel tomorrow, and I'll try to probably unsuccessfully pin them down on like the bar for success. But it's a big study, right? It's placebo-controlled. It's a long study. I mean, do you feel like this is well suited to like really answer the question and also show something statistical if you have an effect size that's in the ballpark of Abetas?
Yes. So this is do what it was supposed to do, which is to replicate -- replicate the biomarker data that we saw in the first study and then allow us to design a Phase III study. So it has all the different elements to it. We have the tau PET. We have the CSF markers. We have, of course, ApoE carriers, non-ApoE carriers that we can look at the different patient populations and how that they respond so that we can then design subsequent studies if there are benefits seen here. And as you mentioned, it's a big study. It's a long study. So I think we have the right time lines and we have the right patients to be able to ask the question.
Yes. And were patients in this study like is it basically the same population as the lecanemab and donanemab Phase III typically...
It's the early patient populations.
Okay. All right. I can't wait. Maybe switching gears to Angelman. Do you want to just sort of set the stage and talk about the Phase III and how it's progressing?
Yes. So the program is progressing really well. We recently refined the Phase III REVEAL design to focus exclusively on the 80-milligram cohort. So we initially had 2 dose levels -- but based on the positive efficacy and favorable safety tolerability profile from our Phase I/II HALO study, which was an open-label study that had both dose levels in it, we decided to focus on the higher dose level.
So this means we can now achieve the objectives for the study with 158 patients instead of the 210 we were originally planning, so a little bit smaller. And then the enrollment for that study is expected to complete this year so that we also have FDA breakthrough therapy designation. And then that means readout the following year in 2027 because it's a 12-month study.
Makes sense. We'll get the Ultragenyx data first. How are you thinking about like the read-through from that readout to yours? And what are the limitations of that read-through?
Yes. So for Ultragenyx, the thing I'm most looking forward to seeing is the placebo effect in this patient population. So we really don't have data on 12-month placebo effect in these individuals. Of course, we can model it. We can do all sorts of things, and we did do that as we powered our study, but to really see what that placebo effect is at 12 months will be really nice.
And that's an important question for the whole field, not just for us. Other than that, the molecules are very different. So the Ultragenyx molecule is a different chemistry. They have dose-limiting toxicity, so they're dosing it extremely low. And so because of that, I think the read-throughs are going to be limited other than really understanding the placebo effect.
Beyond the open-label data from both companies, which obviously looks like directionally supportive, is there any, I mean, I guess like asked in another way, right? Like with tau, you can look at tau lowering, with SMA, you can look at like other biomarkers. In Angelman, like do we have any hard evidence or anything we can ground ourselves in and knowing that you're normalizing like the actual underlying genetics?
Yes. So again, we have to go back to our knowledge of drug distribution, what we know about the preclinical modeling, how we understand our CNS oligos, which we have a lot of experience with. Based on all of that, we are at the mid and the high dose levels, achieving nice distribution to all the brain regions to get that restoration of UBE3A levels.
And we've been able to do that for other programs where we do have nice biomarkers, CSF biomarkers for. So I'm confident in that that's going to translate as well. That's also supported that we're getting the right target engagement in domains by all what we're seeing in the clinical endpoints. The important thing from our HALO study is that we're seeing benefits across domains and across tests. So it's not just one test. We were not cherry-picking any data. If you look at the Bayley, which is physician administered, if you look at the Vineland, which is parent reported, if you look at the CGI, which is physician reported, all of them tell us the same story.
They tell us the same story, and they tell us the same across different domains that we're having a benefit. And it's that consistency in the data that's giving us confidence here since we don't have that very hard CRISP biomarker that we have for some of the other programs.
Yes. Okay. Makes sense. You want to talk about the endpoint selection for Phase III? And I guess maybe just look in the backdrop of this, right, there's like a lot of consternation right now about the FDA and rare disease and like alignments and like is this -- whatever. So maybe just talk about your regulatory dialogue. Obviously, you're doing something different than Ultragenyx and like your confidence that this is kind of truly locked down.
Yes. So just to remind everybody, our primary endpoint is expressive communication as measured on the Bayley 4. So that's a physician-administered assessment. We chose expressive communication because it is by far the #1 thing that is most important for parents and caregivers. It is also something that if you're administering the Bayley, the individual has to communicate during the testing.
So they have to use gestures, sounds, words to score on the Bayley for expressive communication. So it's a very crisp endpoint that's going to be less subject to learning or bias or placebo effects or things that can happen than some of the other endpoints that are available. So it being a crisp endpoint, it being the thing that matters the most -- and it's also the thing that we had the biggest effect on in our HALO study and then it also has the lowest natural history. So there's really no change in expressive communication over a year time point in this Angelman patient population.
So it gives us the biggest delta. So taken together, it's the obvious right endpoint for us. We proposed this as the primary endpoint to the FDA, they agreed with no debate. One thing they did ask us to change is the Bayley 4. We had been proposing to use GSV scores. It's a score that has to be imputed. And so because of that, they wanted raw scores. We knew that they were going to likely ask for this because we know they didn't like it going in. So we conceded to that. They also asked that we not include parent input on the test that we really do just focus on the physician-administered assessment, which is fine. And so we agreed with that as well.
So everything that the FDA recommended, we agreed with, these were things that we knew we were probably going to have to concede to going into the discussion. So we were happy to make those concessions. And so with that said, we also have a controlled study. So this is a controlled study. So we have that head-to-head control. So you mentioned some of the other debates going on. Those are trying to use natural history comparators or external controls. This is gold standard controlled study in the patient population using the endpoint that's most meaningful for patients, doing it in a way that's directly consistent with FDA guidance and their feedback.
So because of that, I'm very confident in where we're at. And we've had a long lovely relationship with the FDA, very collaborative going all the way back to the days when we ran the SPINRAZA trial for SMA. And I'm confident in where we're at and that we have the right study design to be able to answer this question definitively.
Yes. Okay. That makes a lot of sense. Do you want to just talk about like, again, you mentioned the point on placebo arm, right, and that being like one of the natural questions. What's the effect size implied by the Phase I/II versus natural history? And when you did the powering in Phase III, like how much cushion did you give yourselves?
Yes. So we were pretty conservative in our powering because as we discussed about that placebo that we don't know. So we do have 90% power to see the effects that we're expecting based on the HALOS data, and we have powered that fairly conservatively, as I mentioned, because of the HALOs.
Okay. But not giving like numbers around it.
No, we're not giving numbers. This is a pretty competitive space.
Is it? Okay. I'm just joking. Okay. Sounds good. Anything else you would want to add on Angelman before I move on?
Yes. Just 2 other things. So we did add the under 2 cohort to our HALO study. So that will be open label. This is a really important patient population because these are the individuals who are first diagnosed. These are our youngest people in this patient population and the ones who could potentially have the biggest benefit because this is neurodevelopmental. So very excited that, that enrolled incredibly fast and is moving forward.
We also have our CHAMPION study that we've announced. And so this is to treat individuals with [ UPDID ] genotypes. So this is the final genotype that we haven't treated yet. So we've treated mutation and deletion patients in both our HALOS and REVEAL study. You can also get Angelman syndrome from UPDID mutations. And so those we're going to be capturing in the CHAMPION study. So that our total data package will have treated all age groups and all genotypes with Angelman syndrome when we go hopefully with a positive study to file.
Yes. Yes. Okay. That sounds good. Maybe just switching gears. Do you want to talk about like the platform? And obviously, there's been this explosion of the number of companies that say they have a brain shuttle. Maybe not all of those are of like equal quality or realness. But you guys -- I remember during your R&D Day in COVID, right, you had even like animal data for transferrin in muscle and like that was a long time ago. So where is Ionis in this space? And what are you doing to make sure you don't fall behind here?
Yes. So we're using, as you mentioned, novel targeting moieties and conjugation platforms to broaden our reach of our RNA medicines to new tissues, including muscle, but then also the brain. We've exclusively licensed the vector's VHH nanobody platform that allows us to systemically deliver our RNA therapeutics, both ASOs and SIs across the blood-brain barrier and using transferrin-mediated delivery. And so that's work in progress. We shared at Innovation Day last year, a really impressive nonhuman primate target engagement data. It's the best that I've seen out there. So very happy with it. And we're moving that forward into the clinic.
And is there anything more specific you can say about like how that would fit into a collaboration with like a Biogen? Like do you need them to be on board with this to move it forward for like tau or one of these targets?
So we're pursuing it now for an Ionis wholly owned program. If it is with a collaboration target, then we would, of course, need the partners and we'd be able to explore this as well as anything else we're working on. We're also working on bicycle technologies. So this is really exciting because these are really small peptides. We've already advanced this clinically for muscle targeting, and we're working on this for BBB as well. And the exciting thing about that is we could potentially get it down into a subcu auto-injector, which would be incredible.
Yes, that would be huge. Okay. Okay. Is that something you're working on for tau as well?
Yes, we're working on it for all the targets that are interesting for the CNS, of course.
Okay. Okay. I got one question from someone who's listening in on Angelman. What would the Bayley-4 data in HALO look like if no caregiver parent input was allowed?
Yes. So fortunately, we have the Oak Hill data that was published uses the Bayley-3, and they see a very similar response that we see. And the Bayley-3 doesn't use caregiver input. So it's a very similar response without it, which is why we were happy to concede to that.
It's not an analysis you can perform with your own data?
No, it's not.
Okay. Just like the scales don't work that way.
They don't capture it as consistently as they should the sites and everyone who's doing the test, exactly what came from the administration and what came from the discussions with the parents. And so we are capturing that, of course, now in the REVEAL study. But in the HALO study, we hadn't separated that out and requested that information while the test was being administered.
Right. Okay. Okay.
And asking for that information post hoc is not useful.
Right. I understand. That makes sense. So what CNS program or programs have we not talked about that you think at this panel a year from now or 2 years from now, you think could be a major focus for people.
Yes. Oh my goodness, we have so much stuff going on. So we haven't mentioned Zilganersen for Alexander disease. We had a positive Phase III there last year. So that NDA has been submitted, and we're looking forward to a launch later and approval later this year. So that's really exciting because that will be our first independent neurology launch for Ionis. And of course, it's always wonderful when you have disease-modifying positive Phase III data in a population that doesn't have anything.
So that's something to see and watch as we get through the approval and then the launch. There's also salanersen. This is in partnership with Biogen. This is basically like a yearly SPINRAZA. It's using our new NMA chemistry to increase the potency of splice modulating oligonucleotides. That's starting pivotal studies this year and the data from the Phase I study is just absolutely beautiful where they can reduce neurofilament to normal levels and keep it down for a year after a single dose.
And so that's a really remarkable chemistry and program that's moving forward that I think is going to be generating a lot of exciting data. We also are doing a similar program with Dravet using that same NMA technology that's going to start in the clinic soon. We, of course, have ulefnersen for FUS-ALS. This is a potential second ALS indication for Ionis. This is another genetic cause of ALS that Phase III data reads out this year. There's also the Huntington tominersen Phase II data that reads out this year. So that's in the lower dose, younger, earlier-stage patients. And then we have multiple mid-stage neurology programs in our wholly owned pipeline that are going to read out next year, including alpha-syn as well as [indiscernible]. A lot of really exciting stuff going on here.
On Alexander disease, I mean, the data there is really -- it's really awesome. How have you been like setting an expectation, if at all, on like the market opportunity for that drug?
So there's just a few hundred patients in the U.S. So it is an ultra-rare disease. So it is a small opportunity.
Okay. Okay. And then on salanersen, like the chemistry you used there, like is that the kind of thing you think could be extrapolatable to all types of targets, including targets that you knock down? Or is it going to be like more constrained?
No, it's only splicing. So it's fascinating. It only works for improving the potency of splicing. But across the board for our splicing, it so far has always performed.
Interesting. So SMA, Dravet diseases like that is not like the right thing to think about.
YES. And because they're already uniform, they're fully modified because we're modeling splicing and they don't have that DNA gap in there, they're already really long-lasting molecules. And then you add this on top of it, and that's where you get to that yearly dosing.
Okay. Okay. And maybe just lastly, like for any new IND you file now in CNS, like why wouldn't that just be a brain shuttle program at this point?
So we still have to show what technology works. Right now, the IT is working. We understand it. We know how to develop these and develop these quickly. And it's a known proven technology. And I hope that we'll be in the same place with brain shuttle, not too terribly long from now, and then that will be the answer, but we're just not there yet.
Okay. Okay. Interesting. Interesting. Do you feel like from -- like when you look at your shuttle technology and others, like like in your mind, is there like a material difference in like the expertise in targeting transferrin receptor or other -- like you know what I mean? Or is it feel -- because I guess like GalNAc and LICA became more commoditized pretty quickly. But I don't know where we're at with TfR1.
I think it's going to end up in the same place. Looking at the data, we played with a lot of these different things. The biggest difference that we can find is the size of what the ligand is and using a different size for more convenience and delivery. Other than that, they all tend to perform pretty similarly. And we, of course, make everybody else's molecules in breast. So I think it will be more like GalNAc. The biggest thing, though, is still understanding your cargo and understanding the safety profiles of your cargo and what you need to find good ASOs and SIs.
Makes sense. Okay. Great. Anything else you want to touch upon, Holly?
No, I think we hit it all.
Okay. What about muscle? Like what's next in muscle for you guys?
Yes. So we're moving muscle programs forward, both skeletal as well as cardiac. We had our first cardiac muscle program using our bicycle technology, which I mentioned. These are the very small peptides so that you can do subcu delivery for them. That's advanced into clinical testing. We have another that will be advancing later this year. And so it's moving.
Great. Awesome. All right. Well, thank you so much for taking the time. Really appreciate it.
Happy to.
All right. Thanks, everyone, for listening.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Stifel 2026 Virtual CNS Forum
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: Ionis betont zwei prioritäre Pfade: Tau‑ASO für Alzheimer (biomarkergetriebener Phase‑II‑Readout Mitte 2026) und Angelman Phase‑III (REVEAL) fokussiert auf die 80 mg‑Kohorte mit FDA‑Abstimmung.
- Plattform: Fortschritte bei brain‑shuttle (VHH/transferrin) und bicycle‑Peptiden sollen systemische oder subkutane CNS‑Zustellung ermöglichen.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Tau‑Programm: Phase I/II zeigte Tau‑PET‑Reversion in betroffenen Regionen; CELIA prüft Dosisintervall (q3 vs q6 Monate) und klinische Signale.
- Angelman‑REVEAL: Primärendpunkt Expressive Communication (Bayley‑4, rohen Werte) nach FDA‑Feedback; Studiogröße auf 158 reduziert, Einschluss 2026.
- Weitere Assets: Zilganersen (Alexander‑Krankheit) NDA eingereicht; salanersen (Biogen‑Partnerschaft) mit NMA‑Chemie startet pivotal; mehrere weitere Neurologieprogramme in mid/late‑Stage.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Studienupdate: REVEAL fokussiert exklusiv auf 80 mg, reduziert Patientenanzahl auf 158; Einschlussabschluss erwartet 2026, Readout 2027.
- Timing: Tau‑CELIA biomarker/klinischer Readout Mitte 2026; Zilganersen NDA und potenzielle Zulassung/Launch später 2026.
- Platform‑Fortschritt: Positive Nichtmenschenprimaten‑Daten zum VHH‑shuttle; bicycle‑Programme klinisch für Muskel/CARD vorgestellt.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Tau‑Mechanismus: Diskussion zu Kausalität vs. Korrelation; Management verweist auf stärkere Korrelation von Tau mit kognitivem Abfall und sichere Toleranz von Tau‑Senkung in Modellen.
- Wirkschwelle: Unsicherheit, ob ~60% Reduction in Hippocampus ausreicht; CELIA soll nötiges Knock‑down und Dosisintervall klären.
- Angelman‑Risiken: Platzbo‑Effekt bei 12 Monaten und Endpunkt‑Robustheit; FDA‑Änderungen (rohe Bayley‑Werte, kein Elterninput) adressiert, Management nannte aber keine detaillierten Effektgrößen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Investment‑Implikation: Deutliche Biomarker‑Signale (Tau‑PET‑Reversion) und FDA‑abgestimmte Angelman‑Designs reduzieren Teile des klinischen Risikos, entscheidende Value‑Treiber sind jedoch die anstehenden klinischen Readouts (Mitte 2026 für Tau, 2027 für REVEAL) und erfolgreiche Kommerzialisierung/Zulassung von Zilganersen. Risiken bleiben Wirkschwelle, Placebo‑Uncertainty und Plattform‑Überführung in breite klinische Praxis.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Great. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Ellie Merle, one of the biotech analysts here at Barclays. Very happy to have Ionis here with us today for a fireside chat, but we should call it a beachside chat since we are in Miami. Joining us from Ionis is Brett Monia, Chief Executive Officer. Brett, thank you so much for making the time and joining us today. Before we dive into questions, and I know there's a lot of programs to cover and a very catalyst-rich year for you. Maybe if you could give us an overview of the Ionis platform and portfolio and some of the key catalysts for the company over the next 12 to 18 months.
That sounds great. It's great to be here, Ellie. Thanks. Let me provide a brief intro on where we are today and where we're headed at Ionis. So as I think most people in the audience are aware, we're an RNA -- we're a genetic medicines company focused on novel treatments targeting RNA for clinical medicine, diseases where there's a high unmet need. And 2026 is really set up to be a big year for the company, a transformational year for the company. We have so much coming. And that's really built on tremendous momentum that we established last year in 2025. In 2025, we launched our first 2 independent medicines, the first ever FDA-approved medicine for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, FCS, Tryngolza. And as our first independent launch in our history, it was a spectacular success. Quarter-over-quarter growth, $108 million in total revenue for the year, clearly beating all estimates.
We also had our second independent launch with the August approval of DAWNZERA in hereditary angioedema, a prophylactic treatment for that disease, which really, really serves patients incredibly well, meeting the needs of patients. And that launch, too, is off to a very good start. We also had several pipeline readouts last year that is going to really serve us well this year. The breakthrough, the most notable Phase III readout we had was a wholly owned program of the second indication for Tryngolza to follow FCS, which was for severe hypertriglyceridemia, a disease that's not rare that afflicts millions of people in the United States that are in desperate need for new treatments to substantially lower triglycerides and avoid acute pancreatitis, and we hit it out of the park.
We shared the full data at the American Heart Association presented the data. And indeed, this is really set up to be a really big drug for the company, for patients, a blockbuster potential. And then also right around the same time, we announced positive Phase III data for a new medicine for the treatment of a neurodegenerative disease called Alexander's disease, a rare condition in which there are no effective treatment options that's commonly fatal. We showed highly statistically significant benefit in all endpoints in the study essentially, including the primary endpoint of motor function. And as I said, that momentum just sets us up great for this year. This year, we're looking forward to the approval and launch of Tryngolza for severe hypertriglyceridemia, a blockbuster opportunity, as I mentioned, wholly owned.
And just recently, just last week, we received priority review from the FDA, recognizing the importance and the unmet need here. So we're going to launch in July. And that's obviously a big event for the company. We're also expecting the Alexander drug -- Alexander's disease drug to be approved this year, and we'll launch that in the fall. And from our partnered pipeline, the beat goes on, we're expecting 5 Phase III readouts this year, one of which has already been achieved with our partner GSK for chronic HBV which is -- which was highly positive. We announced that in January with GSK. And then we're expecting the Phase III readouts for eplontersen for TTR cardiomyopathy and pelacarsen for Lp(a) cardiovascular disease, and IgA nephropathy drug and another -- a second ALS drug. We have one approved already. So great year last year. This year is going to be even better, and we're off to a fantastic start.
Great. Yes, definitely, we're probably the company with the most catalyst in my entire coverage, a lot going on. Maybe starting with Tryngolza and the commercial trajectory in FCS and potentially soon sHTG.an you give us more color on kind of the cadence of revenues you expect over the course of the year?
Yes. It's going to be really interesting. And very -- we're very much looking forward to it. It's going to be a big year for Tryngolza for severe hypertriglyceridemia. As I mentioned in my opening comments, the FCS launch is incredibly strong and quarter-over-quarter growth, beating all consensus estimates on total revenue. And this is continuing into this year with FCS -- with the FCS indication as we prepare for sHTG. The demand for Tryngolza continues to ramp up for FCS. Patient stories, physician experiences are so incredibly strong. We're seeing reauthorizations come in over and over again. Patients are staying on drug, and we're seeing continued growth demand -- patient demand for Tryngolza in FCS. Despite the emergence of a competitor that came late last year, we're continuing to see this go really well. We are experiencing some pricing pressure. This is a rare disease drug with a rare disease price and a competitor came in with a much lower price for FCS. So we're managing that effectively.
And it's different payers are requiring different things. All of them recognize the fact that we're just a few months away from launching in sHTG, which is really the key event. When we get to sHTG, when we get to the launch in July with approval in late June expected, we'll announce price, but there'll be a step down in price because we're going to go from a population that's estimated to be 3,000 in the United States to a population that's estimated to be 3 million in the United States. So it warrants a -- obviously, a significant step down in price. We're working through that right now. We'll announce price. Our job is to maximize value, highest price possible, while ensuring that patients -- more patients -- the maximum number of patients can access Tryngolza without physicians having difficulty in prescribing the drug or payers creating roadblocks for the drug to really maximize the full potential of this blockbuster opportunity. So that's going really well. We're managing it effectively, and there's a lot more to come.
Great. And feel free to answer this how you will. I know it's a sensitive topic, but price there's a lot of conversation amongst investors around how to think about the sHTG pricing. How is your thinking on price evolved over time? And to what extent are you thinking about how this price decrease will work in practice?
Yes. So I think it was almost 2 years ago when we first introduced the opportunity in severe hypertriglyceridemia, an opportunity that was not appreciated by really almost anybody. And we were making the case that this is a big opportunity, a big unmet need. Of course, everybody recognizes that now. But one of the questions we continue to get was price. How are you going to price it when you go from FCS. And we did some back-of-the-envelope estimations, large patient population. And what we put out there at that time was $10,000 to $20,000 price net, very important that that's a net price for sHTG. That was before we had data.
That was before we did really extensive market research, HCP demand research, payer research and so on. And now that we have the Phase III data, groundbreaking results, we've been able to go and do more informative HCP demand research and payer research. And we're coming to the conclusion there. We'll announce a WACC price. We're going to move away from net price announcements and disclosures. But we're going to focus on the WACC price. And we'll announce that, as I said before, when we launch the drug this summer. And again, we're threading that needle, maximize price while maximize the ability for physicians to prescribe without a hassle and payers to not provide roadblocks and access.
And the sHTG population is very large. How are you thinking about the initial focus population for the launch? And what you're expecting, frankly, from the initial cadence of the sHTG launch?
So as I mentioned, 3 million-plus people with severe hypertriglyceridemia. That's defined as triglycerides 500 milligrams per deciliter and above normal triglycerides or below 150. These patients suffer from many, many issues. Most importantly is the risk of a potentially fatal acute pancreatitis attack. It's not fatal, it tends to lead to additional AP attacks, which caused pancreatic -- eventually pancreatic failure if they continue. High unmet need. We showed an 85% reduction in acute pancreatitis attacks in our Phase III study, unprecedented. Number needed to treat to prevent an AP attack in the highest risk population was 4 patients. treat 4 patients, you'll prevent potentially fatal AP attack, really remarkable results. Out of the gate, that's the population we're going to focus on, is that highest risk patient population.
And that's based on what we're hearing also from the physicians, the cardiologists, the endocrinologists, the lipid specialists that manage these patients. First out of the gate are going to be those patients that have got a history of acute pancreatitis or have such high triglycerides that they're going to have an AP attack sooner or later. We want to prevent that first attack from happening. That's typically above 880 milligrams per deciliter. That's the high-risk population that's estimated to be about 600,000, 700,000 patients in the United States. And then when you add to that patients with other comorbidities. They may not have had an AP attack. They have sHTG, but they have cardiovascular disease or diabetes, that rounds up to about 1 million in the United States. That's the focus for us out of the gate. As far as revenue guidance and those sorts of things, we're going to be going from a rare disease price to a specialty price out of the gate.
So there's going to be some impact initially on revenue out of the gate as we make up for volume in this indication, which will start to really take hold in the second half of this year and then really accelerate next year. We estimate $2 billion plus in peak product sales in the United States alone, and we're very confident we're going to achieve that based on the profile of Tryngolza for sHTG, based on the fact -- based on what we've experienced with FCS, which has been highly, highly positive for this medicine based on the HCP demand, what we're hearing from it and based on the awareness, everybody in the cardiology and endocrinology community is aware of Tryngolza and they just can't wait to get -- to be able to treat their patients, sHTG patients with Tryngolza. So it will dip a little bit in revenue as we begin to get to that acceleration phase when we really increase volume.
So -- but dipping prior to the launch because we should see price decreases even before the approval in sHTG.
Well, we're getting some price pressure, as I mentioned before, in FCS between now and the late June PDUFA date, which we're managing effectively. And then we'll have a step down to the sHTG price at launch. So it will be a slow drop in revenue, but then we're expecting in the second half of the year for it to pick up.
Certainly a very exciting opportunity and could be a major growth driver for you. So we look forward to seeing that launch. Turning to some of the major clinical readouts this year. So you have a lot of them. Maybe starting with CARDIO-TTRansform, I guess, what's the latest on your expectations for what good data would look like and your thinking on how the patient population, whether it's the patients on baseline tafamidis or other factors in terms of sort of the severity of the disease might compare to other trials in the space?
Yes. So ATTR cardiomyopathy is a -- in our -- is a growth market. We've estimated 500,000 patients plus that have ATTR cardiomyopathy heart failure due to a buildup of TTR in the cardiac tissue. And -- but we don't really know what the prevalence is. This is clearly a growth market. There are several treatments out there today. There are 2 classes, stabilizers and silencer that's on the market will be the second silencer, assuming positive Phase III data in the second half of this year. And just a quick reminder for everybody that this same medicine is already approved in many geographies around the globe, including the United States for the hereditary form of polyneuropathy. And that launch is going very well. The demand is very high, continues to grow in patient demand quarter-over-quarter, going very well. I think that speaks to the profile of the drug.
It's a really, really effective and well-tolerated medicine. For cardiomyopathy, we have the largest study ever conducted in ATTR cardiomyopathy. We were pleased with the results of the first silencer that read out for Phase III in TTR cardiomyopathy and how well the launch has gone because that bodes really well for us because we're -- we have the same mechanism of action, very similar profile, virtually identical reductions in TTR in this population. So it greatly derisked the outcome of our Phase III study. But based on the size of the study and the design of the study, we're going to have several aspects of data that could be highly differentiating. Most notable, you highlighted the combination data, right? Tafamidis is the standard of care for TTR cardiomyopathy today in the United States. And there's been some usage of silencers -- a silencer plus stabilizers out there. But there's clearly going to be and there has been more recently pushback, particularly by payers to combine these data because they're expensive drugs, right?
And there's no data. There's absolutely 0 data supporting combination usage will create added benefit to patients. Everybody progresses on stabilizers. The breakthrough treatments, no mistake about it. But everybody is progressing and some -- many patients progress rapidly and quickly. So -- and adding another mechanism of action like a silencer to a stabilizer could really add benefit, but there's no data. All previous studies that -- were vastly underpowered. We have the potential to generate data for the first time that can show potentially if the mechanisms are indeed additive, we need to learn that. first time to really provide convincing evidence that combination adds greater benefit to patients with TTR cardiomyopathy, great unmet high unmet need.
Our peak product sales for eplontersen when we get to this market, we've announced it with our co-development and co-commercialization partner, AstraZeneca, to be $5 billion plus, $5 billion range. That's based on replicating the previous silencer, if you will. Having added data like combination data or other subgroup data, which we are in a good position based on the size of our study is just upside to that product sales revenue that have been projected. In addition, we have the ability -- patients have the ability with our medicine to self-administer, which is unique, right? It does not have to be administered by a health care provider. Ours will be the only silencer that can be administered by a patient themselves in the United States. That, too, is resonating incredibly well in the neuropathy, polyneuropathy launch. And we think that, that will be amplified in the cardiomyopathy launch.
Great. That's helpful. What are your latest expectations in thinking about whether you will reach statistical significance on the combination?
Well, that's a high bar. Our -- what we think will be a big win is if we can provide data that is -- that appears clinically meaningful and believable by HCPs that my patient is progressing, but they're getting some benefit from a stabilizer, show me the data -- and of course, we publish and so on that patients are going to do better. I'm going to fight for this. I'm going to advocate for this combination usage. And of course, once tafamidis goes generic, then the headwinds on using combination data, if there's data out there to support it or combination usage, if the data is out there to support it will be easier to justify.
With that said -- so that's our hope. Again, assuming the mechanisms are additive, we have to prove that. If we hit statistical significance, and that's a grand slam, if you will, right out of the gate. We're not necessarily, of course, powered for that. We're powered for our primary endpoint. Secondary endpoints, you don't typically are powered for. However, in case we underestimate the effect size of combination versus monotherapy in our study, we did make the decision to elevate the secondary endpoint on combination usage as a prespecified secondary endpoint. So we will have in our hierarchical statistical analysis plan just in case. But our guidance is we're looking to see if we can just have believable really meaningful data showing strong trends favoring combination usage.
Interesting. Well, certainly a large and growing market. So we look forward to seeing that data. Another major cardiovascular readout coming this year, Lp(a), massive population. How are you thinking about what would be clinically meaningful from a relative risk reduction here? Like if we see something like 15%, is that clinically meaningful? And how are you thinking about that readout?
Clinically -- clinical meaningfulness is always hinged on the unmet need, right? 8 million to 10 million people today have cardiovascular disease, often fatal myocardial infarction, strokes due to an independent risk factor, Lp(a), high levels of Lp(a) are at high risk for cardiovascular disease. And it's a big unmet need because no other treatments effectively lower Lp(a) to get them out of harm's way for an event, right? So we're in the Phase III study. We did the Phase II. We licensed the drug to Novartis. The HORIZON Phase III study will read out in the second half of this year, maybe by midyear. And we're expecting 80% plus reductions of TTR -- of Lp(a) that gets the vast majority of patients into the normal range of Lp(a) getting them out of harm's way. We hope and first to market by a significant length of time if the study is. So a groundbreaking study in cardiovascular medicine.
We -- the study is powered, designed to achieve a 20% relative risk reduction in the overall population, 25% relative risk reduction in a slightly sicker patient population based on slightly higher Lp(a) levels in the study. That's all been published now, the demographics for the study. Your question, what's clinically meaningful? Yes, sure, 10%, 15% is going to be a big deal. The unmet need is enormous. There's no other treatment. Physicians are seeing patients that have had 1, 2 cardiovascular events, sometimes in their 20s, 30s, 40s of age because of this independent risk factor, any statistically significant reduction -- statistically significant benefit on the primary outcome is going to be important and it's going to be meaningful for HCPs who are trying to manage these patients and they have no weapons and there's no ability to manage Lp(a) CVD. So it's powered for 20%.ow me stat sig, and I think we have a real breakthrough in cardiology.
Definitely exciting. We look forward to seeing that data. Turning to your tau program with Biogen. I guess, what are your expectations for data this year? And what would give you confidence to move forward?
Yes. Our 2 therapeutic areas of priority for Ionis are in cardiology, cardiometabolic diseases, we just talked a lot about that. And then in neurology, a platform that has delivered SPINRAZA for SMA QALSODY for SOD1-ALS, our Zilganersen program, positive Phase III data in Alexander disease that I mentioned in my opening. Next up is the Phase II data for tau. Tau is considered to be one of the most relevant targets for dementia, Alzheimer's disease. The problem is that approaches like antibody approaches have not been able to target intracellularly produce tau, only extracellular, mopping up the extracellular. But we know that tau intracellular causes a severe neurodegenerative disease as well as extracellular. And by blocking production, we're going to address both of those for the first time. In fact, we already did.
Two years ago or so, we reported results of Phase I/II in patients with AD, where we showed not only substantial reductions in tau and CSF, we showed reversal of tau pathology by PET imaging. Neurofibrillary tangles, reversal with evidence of improved cognition in that study. And that's exactly what the Phase II study that's going to read out midyear this year in studies called CELIA, a large Phase II study with the primary endpoint of being CD sum of boxes, which is the cognition primary endpoint in the study. We're looking at 2 dose levels. We're looking at dose intervals, 3 months or 6 months in intrathecal dosing. And it will be the first validation of a tau targeting approach blocking production in the neurology field. You asked expectations. I expect the study to be positive based on the Phase I/II data where we have already generated evidence of reversal of pathology and some evidence of improved cognition.
Okay. Great. Turning to Angelman's, not readout from you this year, but a readout from Ultragenyx, which I think a lot of investors view as a meaningful read-through to your program. How are you thinking about the size of the opportunity in Angelman's? And what gives you confidence that some of the Phase II data that you've seen or that Ultragenyx has seen could translate into a successful Phase III study?
Yes. So there's about 100,000 -- this is a rare disease, but there's about 100,000 people living with this severe neurodevelopmental disease, Angelman syndrome. There are no effective treatments available for this disease. We and others, 2 others sponsors have reported positive early clinical data. Same mechanism of different drugs, but utilizing the same mechanism of action to address the root cause of the disease, strong evidence of benefit in open-label studies compared to natural history data. Now we have the fortune of the natural history data in Angelman's is really strong. People have been working on this for years. So we have really good baselines to compare to, but it's still open label. With that said, we have a proven platform in neurology.
We know how to discover neurology drugs very effectively. And our Phase I/II data compared to natural history is very, very strong. We've seen evidence of benefit across all symptoms, whether it be communication, cognition, motor function, just whatever instrument you use, Bayley-4, CGI, ORCA, others, we're seeing very consistent benefit. And we're seeing now in long-term extension data that we reported last year, patients that are rolled over into the OLE from that study, continued benefit in endpoints. So the first readout is going to be the second half of this year. We're very much looking forward to it. We believe in our medicine. We believe in our trial design. And we don't believe -- we believe that our drug is called Obudanersen is really has a strong potential to really make a meaningful difference for the Angelman's community.
Great. Well, I know we're at time, but exciting year ahead and certainly a very large pipeline. So exciting things to come. I appreciate you making the time.
Thank you, Ellie. It was a pleasure.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Ionis bezeichnet 2026 als Transformationsjahr: Juli‑Launch von Tryngolza für severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG) nach jüngster Priority Review, Herbst‑Launch eines Alexander‑Krankheit‑Medikaments und viele partnergetriebene Phase‑III‑Readouts. Kommerzieller Schwung aus 2025 stützt Wachstum; Preis‑/Erstattungsrisiken bleiben.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Tryngolza: Einstieg fokussiert auf höchstrisiko‑Patienten (≈600–700k; erweitertes Segment ≈1M), Wechsel von Rare‑ zu Specialty‑Preisniveau, Ziel: WAC‑Preis beim Launch, US‑Peak >$2 Mrd. prognostiziert.
- Cardio‑TTR: Größte ATTR‑Studie; sekundäre Analyse zur Kombination mit Tafamidis prespezifiziert; eplontersen ist selbstdosierbar und wird mit AstraZeneca für >$5 Mrd. Marktpotenzial kalkuliert.
- Pipeline: Vielzahl von Phase‑III‑Katalysatoren 2026 (Lp(a) HORIZON, tau, IgA Nephropathie, ALS u.a.); HORIZON ist auf ~20% relatives Risiko‑Reduktionsziel gepowert.
🔍 Neue Informationen
- Konkretes: Letzte Woche Priority Review für sHTG erhalten; Unternehmen erwartet Launch im Juli und will WAC‑Preis bei Markteintritt kommunizieren. Alexander‑Krankheit‑Zulassung und Herbst‑Launch werden als weitere Umsatztreiber genannt. Vorübergehender Umsatzrückgang wegen Preisstep beim Indikationswechsel erwartet, Erholung H2.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Preisgestaltung: Umfangreiche Diskussion zur Preisfindung für sHTG, Payer‑Druck und Balance zwischen Zugang und Maximierung des Preises.
- Launch‑Cadence: Fokus zuerst auf höchste Risikogruppe; anfänglicher Preis‑Schritt nachteiligt kurz Umsatz, Volumenwachstum ab H2 und 2027 erwartet.
- Studien‑Risiken: Nachfrage nach Klarheit zu statistischer Signifikanz für Kombinationseffekte in CARDIO‑TTR und zu klinischer Relevanz bei Lp(a)‑Endpunkt (powered für ~20% RRR).
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bewertung: Sehr katalysentreicher Ausblick: ein erfolgreicher sHTG‑Launch plus positive Phase‑III‑Readouts könnten Ionis fundamental verändern. Anleger sollten Pricing‑Ankündigung, frühe Uptake‑Daten und Kern‑Phase‑III‑Ergebnisse (CARDIO‑TTR, HORIZON, tau) eng verfolgen; Payer‑/Erstattungsrisiken sind der wichtigste Short‑Term‑Risikohebel.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
All right. Everyone, welcome to this afternoon session of the first day of the 2026 Global Healthcare Conference here in sunny Miami. I'm happy to welcome everybody to my adopted hometown, as I said earlier. I'm Mani Foroohar, Senior Analyst [ Leerink ] Medicines. Very fortunate to be hosting Brett Monia, the CEO of Ionis Pharmaceuticals. Brett, how are you doing?
Great. It's great to be here, Mani. Happy to be in Miami.
I'm happy to have you. All are welcome. Let's chat a little bit. I know we spoke over breakfast this morning on some of these issues. So it's a little bit repetitive, you'll have to forgive me. But let's dive into where we are on the ongoing TRYNGOLZA launch and the transition to what's going to be an sHTG launch over the course of this year, but involves a little bit of label change, tinkering with pricing, contracting. Like how should we think about the tempo of that price evolution?
Sounds great, great topic. We're excited about the TRYNGOLZA program. Let me hijack that question very briefly and talk...
Hijack away.
A little bit, but I'll get to -- I'll be brief. We're set up for a great year in 2026. There's so many real game-changing events, some of which have already occurred, but we're really set up for a lot of them this year with the priority review for TRYNGOLZA achieved a week or so ago, sets us up really well. And then, of course, we had Phase III positive data with GSK, our partner for chronic HBV this year. And this builds on tremendous momentum from 2025, including our first 2 independent launches which both are off to a great start, including TRYNGOLZA for familial chylomicronemia syndrome. So that's a really short opening that 2025 was a pivotal year for the company. 2026 is set up to be a transformative -- really a transformative year for the company with so many game-changing events.
First, FCS. The -- our first independent launch in our history was an incredible success in 2025. We achieved product revenue of $108 million quarter-over-quarter growth, beat all estimates that were out there based on the profile of the treatment, based on our ability to find patients and gain access with payers and so on. Of course, that's just the beginning for TRYNGOLZA. To your point, severe hypertriglyceridemia is coming, and that's not a rare disease like FCS is. sHTG is estimated to affect more than 3 million people in the United States today. There's a high-risk patient population that we can talk about a little bit that are particularly on risk for acute pancreatitis, which can be fatal, which is about 1 million people in the United States today, inadequate treatment options available for this large patient population.
The FCS launch continues to go really well as we approach the sHTG launch. As I said before, we have got -- received priority review for sHTG with a PDUFA date of June 30. We're launch-ready. We've been -- we're in the field now preparing for the sHTG launch while we are promoting and doing sales on TRYNGOLZA for FCS. And that's going -- continues to go well. Despite the fact that there's a new competitive entrant into the FCS market, we've seen no meaningful impact on subscriptions for TRYNGOLZA for FCS patients nor on adherence persistence. It continues to go extremely well.
Where we have had some impact is on pricing pressure, right? As you would expect, since we're priced at a rare disease, we've been priced at a rare disease since the 1st of January last year, and that has gone extremely well. A competitor has come in with a much, much lower price. We don't fully understand why, but we're receiving some pressure on that. We're managing it effectively. Different payers are requiring different negotiations. Some none, none. They're saying, we'll just wait for the sHTG launch. And we're having discussions with them on what that price could look like for sHTG, and that's giving them a lot of comfort. Others, we are reducing the price. So we're going to have some impact there, but it's only a few months. With the June launch or a July launch, a June PDUFA date, it's not that far along.
What is that price going to be? For severe hypertriglyceridemia, we've been doing HCP research, HCP demand research for -- even before we had Phase III data that we announced last year at the American Heart Association. And then following the Phase III data, which was groundbreaking, 85% reduction in acute pancreatitis, 72% reduction in triglycerides on top of standard of care, truly remarkable data and then payer research as well.
Based on HCP demand, we increased our peak product sales in the U.S. for more than $2 billion for TRYNGOLZA and sHTG. We announced that in January. That's over -- that's increased from $1 billion plus. That's based on HCP demand. The payer negotiations are going well. And we're -- our focus, of course, is to ensure for the highest price possible to retain as much value as possible while making sure that we do not create roadblocks for prescribers to put in NDCs in place or other restrictions that prevent easy -- relatively easy access for patients to maximize population that get access to TRYNGOLZA for sHTG.
We're getting closer to the finish line. We're getting close. We think we're threading the needle very effectively on the ultimate WACC price. And we'll announce that price at approval and launch.
Almost as if you and I had this exact conversation hours ago. So let's dive into a little bit of those competitive dynamics. Looking forward to sHTG, you're going to have a year, perhaps a little year and change of headway before competitor launches. Competitors fairly publicly disclosed their top line WACC price at $60,000. You've given some commentary around net price. So it's a little bit of apples oranges. But let's talk about the size of this patient population and what parts of the sHTG population, starting from those who already have a pancreatitis event, very high 880-plus level of triglycerides 500, et cetera. Like which of those populations do you think are the sweet spot for TRYNGOLZA to launch into? And how does that influence pricing and contracting decisions?
Yes. First, we believe that having first-mover advantage, coupled with the amazing data that I just summarized for you that we presented last year is a big, big advantage there. And we think that we're at least a year, maybe 1.5 years now that we have priority review over competition for sHTG. I also mentioned at the beginning that this population, as defined by triglycerides 500 and above is over 3 million in the United States alone.
But to your question, the patients that are in the greatest need, the patients that are going to be prioritized by endocrinologists, cardiologists, lipid specialists, pancreatologists, out of the gate are going to be those that are at the highest risk for acute pancreatitis. Who are those? Those are people that have already had an acute pancreatitis event. Some of them multiple events, and they're losing function of their pancreas because of those multiple events with triglycerides above 500 or those that are above 880, which is a critical threshold of triglycerides that cause persistent chylomicronemia, and that puts them at high risk for an acute pancreatitis event. And docs want to prevent that first attack from happening even if they didn't have a history of AP.
As I mentioned, that's about 1 million people alone. Those are going to be the priority for physicians to target out of the gate because those are the ones in the greatest unmet need. We expect our label, though, to be broader than that. It's not just in the high-risk persistent chylomicronemia patient population. Guidelines say already, cardiology and endocrinology guidelines that if you have sHTG by -- as defined by 500 and above triglycerides, you need to treat patients as aggressively as you can to get them below 500. And there's going to be physicians that are going to want to prescribe to label. We expect label to be as an adjunct to diet for patients that have triglycerides above 500 period.
So it's a much broader population, and we'll work on that broader -- the broader component of that population in time. But out of the gate, it's that severe high-risk patient population with a history of AP or above 880 that we'll be targeting and that physicians will prioritize as well to get to TRYNGOLZA as quickly as possible.
So let's talk about a debate that's around the same competitive dynamic. How much of a difference is there between your once-monthly form factor and once every 3-month form factor presumptively will enter the market a year later. How meaningful is that? Is there a sub-published to patients, patients for whom there is a huge difference in terms of convenience?
Not in the research we've done, also not in common sense practice, in common sense thinking. Once per month administration is very convenient out of the gate. And we do not believe that there's any evidence that going to every 3 months administration offers any meaningful advantage from a patient convenience standpoint.
We are launched in FCS with an auto-injector, right? That means that you do not see the needle visibly, not a prefilled syringe. And that auto-injector has gone -- has resonated really well with the FCS patient population as it has for other launches we've done like WAINUA, for example, for TTR amyloidosis. Once per month is very convenient. What is far more important is the data, right? The data on 85% reduction in acute pancreatitis, 72% reduction in triglycerides, that's a very high bar for anyone to meet. And we believe that at the end of the day, the data is going to drive enthusiasm by practitioners in addition to being first to market and to set this market as we did in FCS, where we led the way. We've created this market opportunity in FCS. We identified the patient population as we did now -- as we're doing now in sHTG. And those are the big advantages is the product profile, which is going to be tough to beat and being first.
So let's talk about another point of differentiation or not, which is the debate around hepatic fat fraction. Obviously, this is one that's been discussed to what extent it's on mechanism, to what extent it may or may not be off mechanism. And what is the clinical significance of an elevated hepatic fat fraction seen in a proportion of patients in the CORE studies?
Yes. Let me level set for everybody, make sure we're all on the same page from the get-go. So what we saw was a small but dose-dependent increase in liver fat triglycerides in the liver of patients in our Phase III CORE and CORE 2 studies in sHTG, small but statistically significant, but small. We are 100% confident this is an on-target effect. Think about what we're doing here biologically, folks. We are very acutely, in other words, relatively fast and substantially reducing circulating triglycerides from the blood. And the clearance of those triglycerides is happening through 2 mechanisms.
One is breakdown through lipoprotein lipase. The other is clearing through the liver, right? And the liver does -- when you look at the magnitude of triglycerides reductions we're achieving, the liver is doing a pretty darn good job of clearing that out without a substantial increase in liver fat, but there's some. We've also saw it with a competitor -- a competitor program with an siRNA where they showed in Phase II dose-dependent increase in liver fat. Same thing. It's on -- we believe this is on target and makes complete sense.
With that said, we also went into this -- when we looked at the data, we also believe that this would be -- that the liver would be able to adapt to this, have an adaptive response. And once they got through that initial bolus of triglycerides that are cleared effectively, it would get around to the rest of the triglycerides in time. That's exactly what we're seeing in the long-term extension data. In 2 years out now, we have a sizable number of patients that are now -- have reached 2 years. We're continuing to monitor by MRI, and we're seeing return to baseline in patients. So we're going to publish and present that data later this year.
But what's most important, that's important. But again, it's not an adverse event. It's not a toxicity. It's an observation because there is no correlation with clinical sequelae. There's no correlation with ALT elevations. There's no toxicity correlations at all. It's an observation. And we're seeing it return to baseline with time. So we look forward to sharing that data probably in the second half of this year.
Great. Let's move to commercial opportunity and just wrap up this topic. You've talked about in the U.S. alone, $2 billion-plus opportunity for you guys in this indication, obviously, a sizable population. Give us a quick overview of the status of this indication for you guys, OUS and your economics that you draw in from there?
Yes. So we have -- our business model today, it will evolve, but today is to focus on our independent launches in the United States market -- U.S. market and then to partner ex U.S. for the time being. There will be a time, not too far down the road, probably where we will emerge from the U.S. market. But today, we have partners for commercialization of TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA.
For TRYNGOLZA, for FCS, we are now launched, approved and launched in Europe. Our partner is Sobi, and they're preparing for a launch in the broader we'll call sHTG population. Economics to Ionis is royalties in the mid-20% range or so. But what Sobi is doing is very thoughtful when it comes to pricing ex U.S. that will support pricing ex U.S. and addressing the patient population with the greatest unmet need is that they're focusing entirely on patients that have triglycerides 880 and above. Whether or not they have a history of AP, they're focused on that patient population, which instead of multiple millions of people is more in the 700,000 to 800,000 patient population range, which will allow them to command a higher price because it's the most severe patient population out there.
Sobi has said that ex U.S., this is a greater than $1 billion product opportunity in Europe alone. So we have a good partner. I should also mention that our first-generation molecule, I'll call it that, WAYLIVRA, which is approved in Europe for FCS, Sobi is our partner. So they know this space well. They've done a great job with WAYLIVRA. And the first patients that have come on to TRYNGOLZA in the FCS launch are switches from WAYLIVRA over to TRYNGOLZA. And they're doing a great job finding new patients as well.
So let's pivot off of this end market over to another partnered program in TTR, obviously, cardio transform long time coming, critical data set for you guys. Talk to me about how you see the combo with tafamidis opportunity now? What -- what a positive static benefit on top of tafamidis would mean for your commercial opportunity in the U.S. and EU in cardio transform?
Yes. So very much looking forward to the Phase III data in cardiomyopathy in the second half of this year. Just as a reminder to everybody, we are approved for the hereditary TTR polyneuropathy indication already. And that launch continued -- the patient demand for WAINUA for polyneuropathy continues to be very, very strong, very encouraging. But we're only indicated for one -- we only have one indication now. It's the hereditary polyneuropathy. We're looking forward to get into the cardiomyopathy indication, which is well north of 500,000 patients or so.
Our CARDIO-TTRansform Phase III study is the largest study ever conducted in TTR cardiomyopathy, and it's not even close. It's more than double the size of the next largest study conducted. There's one -- AMVUTTRA is approved, silencer, the first silencer for this indication is doing well. We're very pleased about that because we believe it bodes extremely well for our drug, eplontersen brand name WAINUA, based on sheerly on the fact that our product profile shows as good, if not better TTR lowering, excellent safety and convenience as a once-per month treatment that patients can self-administer at home and not rely on a health care provider to administer the drug like our competitor. We believe that the results of the first silencer actually greatly derisk the outcome of our study for the primary endpoint, which is what we're powered for.
Getting into the secondary endpoints to your question about combination usage. Today, we know that the one silencer that's out there today is being used to some extent with stabilizers, a combination approach. We believe that the 2 mechanisms will be complementary and offer greater efficacy. However, there are headwinds on that because there's no data. There's absolutely no data showing added benefit of a combination usage. So as these branded molecules are out there with branded pricing, it creates payer pushback, if you will. We believe that, that can all change with data. If you have data that delivers believable and meaningful evidence of benefit in combination usage that HCPs will advocate because we know that all patients are continuing to progress on stabilizers. These are not treatments that are reversing disease or halting the progression. These patients are still progressing. They want added benefit and complementary mechanisms has the potential to offer that.
We believe that we're set up to offer that data, to generate that data, which can go very well, which will resonate very well with HCPs and payers, if you can show them the data that covering 2 medicines will halt the disease or show added benefit versus either agent alone. We're not guiding towards stat sig. It's a secondary endpoint, but we are hedging our bets, if you will, that we could have really nice data in combination based on the size of our study. So we did elevate the secondary endpoint of combination to a key secondary endpoint. So it is part of a hierarchical statistical analysis plan in case we do hit it next year. Nevertheless, we will have the strongest data whether we hit stat sig or not in this study.
Let's pivot over as we have a couple of other studies talk about a partner study targeting Lp(a) with Novartis. It's been delayed a couple of times due to event rate. Admittedly, also Amgen has also seen delays. This has been something that's happened across the space. Talk about what you're expecting from the horizon based upon your conversations with your partner and how you think about the commercial opportunity at any particular level of event reduction, given the debate is, are we talking 15, 20, 18, et cetera? There's a lot of nuance on Wall Street.
Yes, there aren't a lot of independent cardiovascular risk factors left that aren't addressed by treatments today. Lp(a) is one of the last ones. We know that 8 million to 10 million people suffer from cardiovascular disease due to excessively high levels of Lp(a) causes atherosclerosis, strokes, heart attacks and is not effectively addressed with other agents that are out there today, PCSK-9, statins, anything that's out there today. What we're doing is targeting Lp(a) with pelacarsen, first mover advantage, at least 1.5 years ahead now with the delay you just referred to by a competitor program that's closest to get market first. Big market opportunity.
The study is powered to achieve a 20% to 25% relative risk reduction. and based on several assumptions, but that's what the study was powered based on based on the Lp(a) lowering that we're achieving, which is greater than 80% in the study. And that's obviously a multibillion-dollar blockbuster opportunity with attractive economics to Ionis, Novartis running that study.
The study has been delayed. As you mentioned, the competitor program was delayed, too, simply because -- I mean, as far as we could tell, we were blinded to the data, but it's just that the events are taking longer to accumulate to support the powering assumptions for this study than was originally projected. And a lot of assumptions go into that rate when you do something for the first time, an outcome trial for the first time.
The other contributor to the slower event rate is the fact that these patients' other risk factors are extremely well controlled. Their LDL-cholesterol is normal. Their diabetes is controlled, their hypertension is controlled. This is a pure play on Lp(a) CBD, which is good for the drug, because that's what we're doing. We're lowering Lp(a). We're normalizing it in this study. Is this a big market opportunity if we don't hit 20%, if we hit 15%, 12%? This is still a big market opportunity even in that situation because the unmet need is so big and there are no effective treatments on the market today.
We've popped around the pipeline a little bit. I do want to move forward to your own wholly owned rare disease assets as well beyond that sort of commercial. I want to touch base on Angelman Syndrome, where your pivotal data is coming somewhat later than your competitor Ultragenyx. Talk about how you're going to be interpreting that data. and how it would read forward to your data and how you think about what its implications, both scientifically and strategically?
Yes. We launched our Phase III study called REVEAL in Angelman Syndrome using Obudanersen, that's the generic name now, ION582 previously. And the enrollment is going very well. We're going to complete enrollment this summer in our Phase III study. We reported Phase I/II data a year or 2 ago, about 1.5 years ago, showing really strong evidence that we were improving outcome in patients with Angelman Syndrome across the measurements we've made using whatever instrument we made, Bayley-4, SAS-CGI, ORCA instruments on communication, motor function, cognition compared to a very strong natural history data. So that led us to make the decision to move into Phase III development. And we're going to have data next year for that program. This is over 100,000 people in the United States with this rare disease with no effective treatment options available.
We're very much looking forward to -- the competitor you mentioned who's going to have Phase III data in the second half of this year, and Mani, we're rooting for them. We want to see that be a good outcome in the study because we know we have a great drug, and we have a proven platform in CNS diseases, platform that is delivered SPINRAZA and QALSODY and our tau program, many more. But they are using a different chemistry than we're using. They're using a much lower dose than what we're using. Our dose is 5, sixfold higher. It's the highest dose that we tested in our Phase I/II study that showed the greatest benefit. So -- but we don't know why they're using a lower dose. Our data indicates equal potency in preclinical models. So we'll see. But we'll see what happens there.
Obviously, plenty of room. There's other advantages that we have with respect to dosing and that kind of thing. But at the end of the day, this is a big market opportunity, and we're looking forward to their data in the second half of this year. And moreover, we're looking forward to our data next year.
So we've walked through the pipeline, wholly owned assets, partnered assets. I want to look out a little further to the future. There's a lot of debate around how -- not to say commoditized, but how competitive oligo therapy has gotten. We've seen with the patents that yourselves and Alnylam built the [indiscernible] business as it is now, but this sub-industry on the back of. Many of them expired. The backbone chemistries are developed are fairly well known. And there are many companies everywhere from San Diego, Boston, China, Hong Kong, et cetera, moving assets in the clinic, especially for liver-targeted RNAi.
Talk about how you think about that increase in competitive intensity, how you stay ahead of that and what your strategy is to address what is going to be a more crowded pipeline space, especially in the liver?
Yes. What a difference a decade makes. Yes, it's -- as the lead pioneer in the space of oligonucleotide therapeutics, we're very proud of the fact how this has really taken hold and is producing such incredibly groundbreaking meaningful new medicines for the community.
For liver targeting, it has become somewhat commoditized. We're seeing a lot of other companies come in who really have no experience in oligonucleotide therapeutics, but it's relatively straightforward to develop an siRNA for a liver target, to your point. And we're seeing them come in unable to really beat efficacy or potency, but they're really focused on durability, less frequent dosing, right? What we have done to counter that at Ionis is for any program that's under our control or any partner we can convince, we have follow-on molecules that are doing the same thing, right? We have a TRYNGOLZA follow-on that's in Phase II development now that supports 9-month dosing, once a year dosing. We're doing the same thing for our other wholly owned drugs and for some of our partnered programs.
Where the real different -- so we're going to protect that in that way. But where we are also -- we are differentiating and extending our leadership is in innovation, right? We believe that we have the best platforms to expand, say, in CNS diseases using new blood-brain barrier penetrating technologies to allow us to target CNS diseases where we lead using subcutaneous administration, low-volume subcutaneous administration infrequently every couple of months or so, at least, maybe less frequent.
Muscle targeting. We have our first novel ligand, the Bicycle ligand targeting cardiac myocytes in the Phase I development now using siRNA coupled to a bicycle going after a genetically validated target with our partner, AstraZeneca. And we have a second one coming that's wholly owned by Ionis that will be in the clinic possibly by the end of this year, maybe early next year.
So it's all about innovation, Mani. It's -- you got to -- people are going to copy well you make sure you stay ahead of them and you become in your first to market and you continue to innovate to open up new opportunities. I think we're well on our way to lead -- continuing to lead in oligonucleotide therapeutics.
Great. And with that, I think we're out of time. And a pleasure to have you and looking forward to the conversation soon.
Great being here. Looking forward too. Thanks, Mani.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2026
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernbotschaft: TRYNGOLZA ist der zentrale Wachstums-Driver: starke FCS‑Markteinführung (Produktumsatz von $108M im Quartal), Priority Review für sHTG mit PDUFA am 30. Juni 2026 und ein angehobener US‑Peak von >$2 Mrd. Management setzt auf First‑mover, robuste Phase‑III‑Daten (≈85% weniger akute Pankreatitis) und aktive Preis-/Vertragsverhandlungen.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Kommerz: Fokus auf US‑Eigenvermarktung, ex‑US Partnerschaften (z.B. Sobi) mit Mid‑20% Royalties; Sobi zielt ex‑US auf TG≥880‑Patienten (700–800k) für höheres Pricing.
- Positionierung: Out‑of‑gate Priorität für Patienten mit Historie akuter Pankreatitis oder TG>880; breitere Label‑Erwartung als Adjunct bei TG≥500.
- Pipeline: Follow‑on Moleküle für längere Dosisintervalle, CNS‑ und Muskel‑Ligandeninnovationen (Bicycle, BBB‑Technologien) zur Differenzierung.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Prioritätsprüfung bestätigt, PDUFA 30.06.2026; Management berichtet über laufende Preisdiskussionen (teilweise Reduktionen bei einzelnen Payer), keine nennenswerte Auswirkung auf Adhärenz/Subskriptionen. Langzeitdaten zur Leberfett‑Rückkehr auf Baseline geplant H2 2026.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Agenda: Moderatorenfragen fokussierten auf Preisentwicklung und WACC‑Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern, Zielpopulationen (TG‑Cutoffs, Post‑AP), Formfaktor (monatlich vs. Q3M), klinische Relevanz erhöhter Leberfettwerte, ex‑US Economics, Kombinationsstrategie in CARDIO‑TTRansform und Verzögerungen beim Lp(a)‑Outcomestudy.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Mehrere kurzfristige Katalysatoren (PDUFA 30.06.2026, künftige Phase‑III/Readouts) stützen die Bewertung, gleichzeitig bestehen Umsatzrisiken durch Pricing‑Pressure und Payer‑Verhandlungen. Erfolg hängt von Launch‑Execution, finalem Net‑Preis und weiteren klinischen Daten ab.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining us for the 46th Annual TD Cowen Healthcare Conference. I'm Yaron Werber from the biotech team, and it's really a great pleasure to moderate the next fireside chat with Brett Monia, Chief Executive Officer of Ionis. Brett, good to see you.
Good to see you. Yaron, I forgot how cold it gets in Boston.
It's about to get to 60, I believe, in a few days, but we avoided the snowstorm, which is what we were worried about. Next year, we'll do it in San Diego.
Yes. Sounds great...
So lots to talk about. Last year was really, I would say, a breakout year for Ionis. You are a topic for this year. So we're actually thinking this is going to be the breakout year since there's so much going on with almost 5 sets of data coming by the end of this year. So maybe let me turn it over to you, maybe as you think about the business, what are the critical deliverables for you and things that you're mostly focused on?
Thanks, Yaron. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for being here. So indeed, 2026 is set up to be a really big year for Ionis with so many pipeline and commercial events coming. And of course, what makes this year so transformational for Ionis and there's so much opportunity to get involved with Ionis this year still. We're building on tremendous momentum that we created in 2025, right? 2025 was also a very big year for the company, really a transformational year as well in that we achieved our vision to becoming a successful fully integrated commercial stage biotechnology company, evolving from a company that was really focused on R&D for decades, right?
And we successfully did that, as I mentioned, with 2 independent launches, TRYNGOLZA for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, FCS, a full year of TRYNGOLZA for FCS, the first approved FDA medicine for FCS, a severe debilitating genetic disease and DAWNZERA for HAE prophylaxis, 2 launches that are off to excellent, excellent starts. And we had multiple really important meaningful clinical trial Phase III readouts last year, too, that sets us up in part for a very successful 2026.
So looking into this year, so much opportunity at Ionis. Not only are we going to have an additional -- a full year launch for DAWNZERA in hereditary angioedema, -- but we're also looking to 2 additional independent FDA approvals and launches this year. TRYNGOLZA, going from a rare disease indication, FCS to a highly prevalent disease indication, severe hypertriglyceridemia. We achieved -- we received priority review acceptance with a PDUFA date of June 30 just last week for sHTG, a multibillion-dollar blockbuster opportunity. The Ionis is leading the way in with a PDUFA date of June 30, and we're ready to launch.
And then in addition, we are looking at our first Ionis wholly owned neurology launch for a disease indication called Alexander disease, where we reported highly positive Phase III data last year. This represents the first of many anticipated neurology launches coming that are wholly owned by Ionis for years to come. And then in addition, on the partner side of things, we're expecting 5 positive -- or we're expecting 5 Phase III readouts from our partnered pipeline this year. One already is in the books and it's highly successful for bepirovirsen for chronic HBV with our partner, GSK. Two, cardiovascular outcome trials, pelacarsen for Lp(a) driven cardiovascular disease and eplontersen, our co-development co-commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca for ATTR cardiomyopathy.
We have an ALS drug targeting a genetic cause of ALS and sefaxersen for IgA nephropathy. And if that's not enough, we're looking to start 2 new Phase III trials, at least 2 this year. Salanersen, a follow-on to SPINRAZA for spinal muscular atrophy that supports once per year intrathecal dosing and then sapablursen for polycythemia several readouts as well. So exciting Ionis really set up for substantial growth in this year.
Brett, when you're thinking about the guidance, the guidance for TRYNGOLZA was $820 million to $825 million, and that assumed a regular review, but now it's a priority review. I know you obviously can't amend the guidance today. As you -- you did also mention that you are expecting Redemplo was launched at $60,000 per year, so versus $595,000. And you are expecting that there will be a step down potentially in revenues and then a step up on the heels of a launch in sHTG, just as you, I imagine, are going to become a lot more competitive on price.
How does that work in the commercial setting? Because on the one hand, one would imagine you're not going to be proactively offering a discount payer, but you want to maximize access. And at the same time, you haven't launched sHTG, so you haven't announced your new price. So kind of how -- maybe strategically, help us understand how that works.
So let me start with the guidance, and then I'll talk a little bit about pricing and the competitive landscape. So we put out our guidance for the 2026 year last year at our earnings call, and that was based, as you said, Yaron, on standard review for TRYNGOLZA olezarsen for severe hypertriglyceridemia. A day later within hours actually of our press release and our earnings call, we received acceptance of our supplemental NDA with the FDA for sHTG with priority review.
So our guidance was set on standard review. Obviously, that's going to have an impact on our guidance, and we're looking forward to providing updated guidance at our Q1 earnings call this spring. You can expect that we will increase our revenue guidance. We will reduce our net operating loss at that time, and we'll also provide product level revenue guidance on TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA for the year.
With respect to competitive landscape, pricing and so on, so let me just say flat out right from the beginning that with the entrance of a new competitor in the FCS space late last year, we've seen no impact, no meaningful impact at all on the demand for olezarsen for the loss of patients that were previously on olezarsen or the feedback we're getting from HCPs and so on. Obviously, we're getting some pushback from some on pricing because our price and they price that we think is commensurate with -- we're managing that. It's performed all payers, and we're only a little away from the sHTG approval in June and the launch. We're in good shape there.
With respect to pricing on sHTG, I'm really happy with where we are today. We're the only one -- we're the only company that actually has Phase III data to utilize for meaningful product level discussions with payers, right? We have remarkable Phase III data on triglyceride lowering on top of standard of care, more than 70% reductions in triglyceride lowering in severe hypertriglyceridemia, 85% reduction in acute pancreatitis attacks, number needed to treat to prevent an acute pancreatitis in the severe population of 4 patients to prevent a potentially fatal attack after only 1 year. That is resonating incredibly well with the patient community.
Our job, our mission is to thread that needle to maximize price to preserve as much value for TRYNGOLZA as possible while minimizing -- maximizing access of TRYNGOLZA for patients, minimizing NDC blocks and any sort of headwinds that payers are going to provide if we price too high. I like where we are today. The research is going very well, and we're looking forward to announcing price upon approval.
So I think historically, you mentioned $10,000 to $20,000. And I think now you're talking about $20,000 net -- and it sounds like you're getting more and more comfortable again. Redemplo was at $60,000. I think there's been -- in the past, you've said that $60,000 might be a little too high in terms of the -- given the breadth of the label in A. And when we talk to clinicians, they are not thinking that they're going to treat necessarily only the high-risk patients at all, but they're really looking at it as a broad utilization for the product. I know you can't say a lot about pricing, but is a sweet spot between $20,000 and $60,000 -- or why not go high and then rebate along the way?
So first of all, level set, there's more than 3 million people in the United States with severe hypertriglyceridemia that we think will qualify, if you will, be eligible for the treatment of TRYNGOLZA. Now of course, those at highest risk for acute pancreatitis that can be fatal and is debilitating and can lead to additional AP attacks will be the priority for Ionis, will be the priority for HCPs out of the gate. But still, that label will be broad. It will be 500 milligrams per deciliter and above. And we do expect, in addition to those at the greatest risk for acute pancreatitis attacks that -- and in accordance with the guidelines that are published that people with triglycerides above 500 will still -- some of those will still have access and will be prescribed TRYNGOLZA to manage sHTG to potentially debilitating fatal first-time acute pancreatitis attack.
With respect to the pricing, $10,000 to $20,000 is what we announced would be a range on a net price for TRYNGOLZA before we even had data, right? That was providing some guidance to because we were getting a lot of questions about that. The competitor that you referred to on $60,000 is a WACC price, right? So we're comparing apples and oranges here, right? Since we had the data that we presented at AHA last year, we've been guiding towards the high end of that $10,000 to $20,000 range for a net price in the U.S. That's not necessarily where we're going to land.
We're doing the research, as I mentioned before. And we, again, believe that we're in the best position to optimize the price to maximize patient access while maximizing value, maximizing price for Ionis and all stakeholders. So stay tuned for that. We'll certainly have room in there for negotiating with payers, rebating, what have you will, in our final price. But that 10 to 20 was set, and that's a net price that was set quite some time ago.
The first year data came out late last year. At what point can we expect the second year data from the study from core?
So we continue to publish new data from continuing to evaluate subgroups and so on data throughout the year. You can expect us to be presenting at ESC, AHA. We have presentations coming up at ACC looking at subgroups. The data that I think you might be referring to your own is 2-year data on the accumulation of a small increase in hepatic fat that we presented at American Heart Association last year in our Phase III data.
Let me be direct on this data. We are 100% convinced as our experts in the field that we speak to that understand lipid metabolism in cardiovascular patients that this is an on-target effect of substantially and acutely -- acutely, I mean, rapidly reducing triglycerides in patients with high triglyceride levels, reducing those through the APOCIII mechanism in large part, occurring through clearance to the liver, right? So as we see -- as the liver is acclimating to this large bolus of triglycerides being cleared, it's going to take some time to clear the fat from the liver.
We saw a small increase, and we're looking forward to presenting updates on new data as we follow these patients long term on what's happening to liver fat over time based on MRI. I want to remind you that this is an observation. It's not a toxicity. There was no clinical sequelae. There was no correlation with ALT elevations. It's just an observation.
And I could also tell you that based on the data we're seeing to date, long-term treatment up to 2 years now with many patients, we're seeing -- as we expect, the liver is adapting to the triglycerides in the liver, and we're seeing a return of liver fat to baseline. We're looking forward to presenting that data as well as other data, 2-year updates data at a medical congress later this year.
Great. I'm going to switch to DAWNZERA. By any chance, if anybody has questions, just raise your hand and happy to take them. On DAWNZERA, you published $8 million for the year. It was $1 million was the first partial quarter in Q3, $7 million in Q4. I think we had $5 million or so in our model. Which patients are now using DAWNZERA? Are they -- it sounds like you've said that it's a combination of new switches and also patients moving from previous therapies as well. Is it mostly naive? Or is it mostly switchers because it's a switch market? And when they switch, at what point can they start testing the Q8 weeks?
We're very pleased with the fundamentals that we're seeing for the DAWNZERA launch to date. Remember, we launched DAWNZERA late last year, September of last year. There's other aspects of the launch that are important to remember. We did not -- we chose not to switch our patients that were on clinical trials over to commercial because we saw the value of long-term treatment with DAWNZERA. This is going to be extremely -- this resonates very well with the HCPs, the allergists that treat these patients to see long-term treatment and to be involved in our continuing clinical trials and to preserve those patients from other ongoing trials before we convert them over to commercial, which we will be doing soon.
And in addition, we have a free drug program, a free drug program that allows DAWNZERA -- patients have access to DAWNZERA quickly while we're working through payers and reimbursements and those sorts of things so they can get their first dose of DAWNZERA quickly and then convert over to commercial after -- it's a once per month drug. So then after the first month, they get one dose and we can convert them over.
So that's also impacting in the short term, the commercialization revenue for DAWNZERA. Like I said, we're very pleased with the demand for DAWNZERA, the enthusiasm. The novel mechanism of action for DAWNZERA as the only RNA-targeted medicine for HAE prophylaxis has really resonated well. Physicians are used to antibodies. They're used to small molecules. They want to use something novel that has resonated well. Of course, the product profile has also resonated well. You can administer DAWNZERA every 4 weeks or every 8 weeks of treatment, which is very convenient for patients using a simple auto-injector.
The main -- the majority of patients, as we expected, that are going on to DAWNZERA switches. Switches primarily from Takhzyro. It's the market leader in the field. But we're seeing switches from all current prophylactic treatments in the for coming on to DAWNZERA. We're also seeing switches from patients that never had a prophylactic treatment to manage their disease using on-demand treatment, which was a bit of a surprise for us. We're also seeing some patients that are newly diagnosed as well. But it's principally the switch market that -- or the switch patients that we're seeing for coming on to DAWNZERA.
And maybe based on the OASISplus data, what percentage at least in the Phase III were able to successfully go to Q8 weeks?
Well, on the commercial side?
Maybe from the clinical studies, there's maybe a corollary for what...
Yes, yes, yes. So in the clinical studies, a smaller segment of patients, I think there was about 25% of patients in the randomized trial were on every 8-week dosing versus every 4-week dosing. And then when they moved into the open-label extension, they had the -- if they were well controlled, they had the option to go to every 8-week dosing. And we saw a good number of patients that went to every 8-week dosing in the open-label extension, but it wasn't a large percentage. DAWNZERA is -- we recommend, although it's not restricted to do this in the label, the label you can start with every 4-week dosing or every 8-week dosing.
We recommend starting with every 4-week dosing. And that makes sense because although we're seeing 90-plus percent control of HAE attacks for either dosing regimen with long-term treatment, like out to a year in open-label extension, the onset of action for every 4-week dosing is faster. So we're recommending that patients start with every 4-week dosing and then if they're well controlled to move into the every 8-week dosing if they want to do that. We're seeing that. We're also seeing some patients start right out of the gate with every 8-week dosing, ignoring our recommendations and they're doing well. But that's the recommendation today, but the majority of patients -- the vast majority of patients are on every 4-week dosing right now on the commercial side.
And if patients start Q8 and they're not well controlled, they can dose down to Q8 to Q4?
They can, yes. They can come back to every 4-week dosing if they experience an attack, for example.
Okay. Maybe let's move to WAINUA with CARDIO-TTRansform. We're expecting that data, I think you've said in second half. I believe the 35 months would end around May. So we're thinking it's Q3. That's kind of our words. I think not yours, obviously. The study is at 1,438 patients, so -- almost 2.5x bigger than HELIOS-B. HELIOS-B looked at all-cause mortality. You're looking at cardiovascular mortality and frequency of recurrent CV events. Maybe just on that primary, why was that done in that all-cause mortality?
We're guiding to the second half of this year for the outcome of the CARDIO-TTRansform study. As you said, your own landmark study, largest study by far ever conducted in ATTR cardiomyopathy, which offers a lot of advantages with respect to data, data generation that we're going to be getting from this study, which is going to go really well. The primary endpoint is a composite of cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular hospitalizations.
We chose cardiovascular mortality because we believe it's the purest measure of cardiovascular benefit versus all-cause mortality, obviously. At the end of the day, honestly, Yaron, and this is true if you look at all the outcome trials done in this disease indication to date, they're pretty much the same. The vast, vast, vast majority of patients that experience a mortality event in TTR cardiomyopathy is due to cardiovascular causes. But that was the rationale there.
And when we looked at your study overall, because the study is so much bigger, part of it is you have a cardiac MRI sub-study and there's actually 2 components, so almost 2 kind of studies there. But when you look overall, maybe give us a little bit of a sense because this is more of an add-on to TAF or a stabilizer. At the time of HELIOS-B, stabilizer weren't quite standard of care. So they did have 22% of patients had tafamidis drop-ins. 395 patients in HELIOS-B had AMVUTTRA monotherapy.
And when you looked at the data with sensoring for drop-ins or without hazard ratio was identical essentially, 0.67 versus 0.68, so essentially, in that study, AMVUTTRA worked very well mono and the combo didn't seem to do a lot more. But again, it was obviously fairly underpowered. Maybe give us a little bit of a sense in your study, just given the size, what can we expect? And where can it really shine in terms of data?
Our peak market sales for revenue for WAINUA is expected to be $5 billion plus. That's us and our partner, AstraZeneca said that. And that's based on replicating the other silence, the data that's out there in the other silence. Everything else is upside. Everything else is upside in this market opportunity for Ionis based on additional data that we'll be able to generate based on the size of the study, the powering of subgroups and so on.
The HELIOS-B data, as I recall, had baseline tafamidis usage nearly 50%, not quite 50%. We're going to be a little bit over that at baseline. We're going to -- we're well balanced, not egregiously different. We'll have more than 50% of tafamidis at baseline, but it's still on par with HELIOS-B. And there'll be more drop-ins over time because, as you said, tafamidis will be standard of care. But we think that, that bodes really well for us because it is the real-world setting. It is what is being -- patients are using today.
And we believe that adding silencer to a stabilizer is going to add -- is going to create additional benefit for patients. It makes complete sense to do so. They are complementary mechanisms of action. But previous studies were vastly underpowered to show any evidence of benefit. We think, obviously, the study -- the data that was generated previously with the first silent to reach the market bodes really well, lends tremendous confidence for a highly successful outcome for WAINUA in ATTR cardiomyopathy. But then based on the size of the study, we're going to -- we have the opportunity to demonstrate and provide believable, meaningful benefit -- evidence of benefit in combination usage, which we think is going to bode really well for combination usage.
Remember, all patients eventually progress on stabilizers, right? There's a need to either switch patients or to combine them. Patients are getting some benefit, but they're progressing, you want to add another mechanism of action. And if you have the data to support that, it is going to go really well with HCPs, with payers and so on. We're well positioned to have the best data, the only data -- meaningful data in combination usage when we get there. And as far as the imaging studies, we think that's really important, too. We're going to have data sets that, again, stand-alone, only -- we're the only ones with cardiac MRI to measure amyloid load in the heart and related function in the heart.
And technetium scintigraphy, another way to measure amyloid load in the heart. Are we clearing the amyloid faster or are we clearing the amyloid period? Are we doing it faster in combination usage and so on? Is that resulting in better heart function. So it's going to be a rich data set, and we're looking forward to it in the second half.
So the primary endpoint, as you mentioned, is essentially in all comers. But I think you have a secondary endpoint, specifically looking at combo. Can you -- and you elevated that in hierarchically in the analysis. Can you talk about that?
Yes. So we're guiding towards having the richest data set in combination usage based on the powering of our study, based on the size of our study and the percentage of patients with combination usage versus monotherapy in our study to be believable, meaningful when the study results. However, there's a chance that we can hit statsig. You never know, right? No one's ever done this before. So to -- in case we do hit statsig in the subgroup, combination usage, we certainly want to be able to have designated that as a key secondary endpoint to include it in the label, that kind of thing. So we elevated in our hierarchical statistical plan to a key secondary endpoint.
Okay. Let's maybe stay in cardio and move to pelacarsen. I think Novartis now said to expect data in the second half of the year from the HORIZON study. I think some of the comments suggested to people that it's sort of middle-ish, maybe the second half part of the middle of the year regardless, that's kind of what we're looking at. We get a lot of questions all the time. The study passed the 2 interim analysis. So we get a lot of questions, does that mean that the treatment effect might be smaller now that you're looking at the final analysis?
Does it mean that it was powered for 20% in the overall and 25% MACE in higher risk, but is it possible to still hit statsig if it's even lower? Maybe just give us a little bit of your thoughts on just the Phase III cardiovascular outcomes? And what does it mean when you don't pass don't stop early in the interims? And what can or can we not glean on the final data?
We get a lot of questions, too. So we're excited about the pelacarsen outcome around midyear this year with our partner, Novartis. 8 million to 10 million people worldwide suffer from this independent cardiovascular risk factor. That means no impact -- no contribution of LDL cholesterol, hypertension, diabetes. This is a pure play on Lp(a), CVD. And if you have high levels of Lp(a), you need to get it lower to get them out of harm's way.
The design paper has been published. The study is designed with a powering of 20% relative risk reduction in the overall population and in the higher-risk patient population with higher Lp(a), it's a 25% relative risk reduction in the study. I'll speak for Novartis because what they've said is that the delay in the readout for the study has -- in their view, has no impact on probability of success in the study. It's truly just simply in our view and their view that doing something for the first time, the first study to determine the outcome of a novel risk factor for the first time, which was based on a set of assumptions on epidemiology or other medicines that lower Lp(a) to some small extent while they're lowering other risk factors like LDL those powering assumptions are probably off a little bit.
And it's just taken a little bit longer to accumulate the necessary number of events to support the powering of the study, first time through the gate. Those assumptions are probably off a little bit. With that said, 993 events are expected to be achieved that supports the readout this year, midyear this year. And Novartis remains very confident in the outcome of the study. Two interim analyses, as you mentioned, both of those were positive interim analyses in which the oversight committee recommended to management to continue the study as planned, and that certainly lends additional confidence.
Okay. I know we have about a minute left. So maybe a quick final question on Angelman 582. You've mentioned now that based on the longer-term data, you're shifting to the 80-milligram dose before you're testing 40 and 80 -- does that mean patients who started on 40, do they stay on 40? Or do they shift to 80? I assume all new patients are going to be at 80. And what led you to move to the higher dose?
So when we first designed the Phase III study, we designed it based on the Phase I/II study, the Phase III study is called REVEAL, which we evaluated in the Phase I/II study, 40 milligrams and 80 milligrams, and both showed a really believable clinically meaningful evidence of benefit versus natural history in this study. That was an evaluation after about 4 to 6 months of treatment, right? When we looked at the long-term extension of those patients, 40 and 80 milligrams for up to 2 years now, what we saw was some evidence of a dose response in which the 80-milligram was showing evidence of greater benefit.
But moreover, we saw no safety signals at all that would preclude us from using the high dose to maximize efficacy in the long -- in the Phase III study. And to help us simplify the study to ensure that as many patients are possible -- as possible are receiving the most efficacious dose, no safety concerns, we decided to just focus on the 80 milligram versus placebo in the study. The patients that were on 40 milligrams that were already randomized into the study moved into an open-label extension, which we increased their dose to 80 milligrams, and they're going to stay on that in an open-label study. We expect to complete enrollment in our Angelman study this year and to read the Phase III data out next year.
So essentially, you'll need to sort of backfill those -- the patients on 40 mg?
Yes. Enrollment is going very well in the study. There was only a relatively small number of patients that were randomized to the 40s to make up for in our enrollment for the Phase III.
Well, terrific. I think we're at time. Brett, good to see you. Thanks so much for joining. Appreciate it.
Thank you, Yaron. It was a pleasure.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: Ionis positioniert 2026 als Jahr mit mehreren kapitalmarktrelevanten Meilensteinen: zwei erwartete eigene Zulassungen/Launches, zahlreiche Phase‑III‑Readouts aus Partnerschaften und fortgesetzte Kommerzialisierung von TRYNGOLZA und DAWNZERA.
- Momentum: Management sieht Übergang zu voll integrierter kommerzieller Biotech‑Firma; vergangene Launchs (TRYNGOLZA, DAWNZERA) und 2025er Datenbasis sollen 2026es Wachstum stützen.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Zulassungen: PDUFA für TRYNGOLZA in schwerer Hypertriglyceridämie (sHTG) am 30. Juni 2026; Ionis plant unmittelbaren Launch und Preissetzung bei Zulassung.
- Portfolio: Erwartungen an mehrere positive Phase‑III‑Readouts (u.a. pelacarsen, eplontersen, bepirovirsen, sefaxersen) sowie Beginn von ≥2 neuen Phase‑III‑Studien (Salanersen, sapablursen).
- Kommerz: DAWNZERA-Launch zeigt Mix aus Switch‑ und Naivpatienten; TRYNGOLZA‑Preisziel laut Management net im Bereich zuvor kommunizierter $10k–$20k, Anstreben des oberen Bereichs unter Berücksichtigung Access.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Guidance: Management kündigt Update bei Q1‑Earnings‑Call an: erwartete Anhebung der Umsatzprognose und Verringerung des Netto‑Operativen Verlusts; Produkt‑Level Guidance für TRYNGOLZA und DAWNZERA geplant.
- Sicherheit: Bei TRYNGOLZA wurde ein kleiner Anstieg der Leberfettwerte beobachtet; keine klinischen Folgen oder ALT‑Zusammenhang; Follow‑up‑Daten (2‑Jahres) werden präsentiert, Rückkehr zu Baseline möglich.
- Dosiswechsel: Angelman‑Phase‑III fokussiert jetzt 80 mg (besserer Langzeitnutzen, kein Sicherheitsproblem); bereits randomisierte 40‑mg‑Patienten wurden auf 80 mg erhöht.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Pricing: Kritische Nachfrage zu Preisstrategie TRYNGOLZA versus Wettbewerber ($60k WAC‑Vergleich); Management will Hoher‑Netto‑Preis mit Payer‑Verhandlungen abwägen, Details nach Zulassung.
- Leberfett: Nachfrage zur klinischen Relevanz des Leberfettanstiegs; Antwort: beobachtend, keine Evidenz für Schaden, Langzeitdaten folgen.
- Outcomes & Subgruppen: WAINUA (CARDIO‑TTRansform)‑Design und Hierarchisierung der Combo‑Subgruppe wurden diskutiert; Studie groß genug, um Kombinationseffekte überzeugend zu prüfen; Pelacarsen‑Readout bleibt ein weiteres bedeutendes Mid‑Year‑Event.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bewertung: Vielzahl naher klinischer und kommerzieller Katalysatoren erhöht Upside‑Potential für Aktionäre, vor allem bei erfolgreicher sHTG‑Zulassung und WAINUA/Pelacarsen‑Resultaten. Kurzfristige Risiken bleiben: Preis‑/Payer‑Dynamik, regulatorische Binary‑Events und die weitere Beobachtung der Leberfett‑Signale.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Oppenheimer 36th Annual Healthcare Life Sciences Conference
1. Question Answer
Hello, everyone, and welcome to Oppenheimer's 36th Annual Life Science Conference. I'm Jay Olson, one of the biotech analysts here at Oppenheimer, and it's a pleasure to welcome you to our discussion with Ionis. And it's an honor to introduce Brett Monia, the CEO, and the timing is perfect as the FDA has just accepted the sNDA filing for olezarsen to treat sHTG with a priority review, which is a really nice surprise this morning.
And with that, thank you so much for joining us here today on a busy day. Brett, I'll turn it over to you.
Great. Thank you, Jay. It's a pleasure to be here. And yes, we're thrilled that we received yesterday the acceptance of our supplemental NDA for olezarsen sHTG prior to review status with a PDUFA date of June 30. So that sets us up really, really well. We're ready to launch in June -- at the end of June, early July, and we can talk a lot about that. So I have a few slides. I'll go through these quickly, and then we could open it up for Q&A. How does that sound?
So again, it's a pleasure to be here at the Oppenheimer Annual Health Conference. Forward-looking statements, I recommend for you to look at the right time. So Ionis is very well positioned today for continued success. We've had a great deal of success in 2025. And it was one of our -- it was definitely a pivotal year, a transformational year for the company as we've really became a fully integrated commercial stage biotechnology company, something we've been seeking to do for the last 5, 6 years since I moved into the CEO role, and we achieved that.
We had our first 2 independent launches last year and both are off to a very good start. TRYNGOLZA for FCS and DAWNZERA for HAE prophylaxis. We have great technology, great science that's fueling a robust innovative pipeline that's continuing to deliver success from mid-stage to late stage. The clinical results successes we've had over the last few years have been quite remarkable. Phase III -- positive Phase III results, FDA approvals, and successful launches and same can be said for the mid-stage pipeline.
And as I said, the commercial launches, the initial independent commercial launches are off to a very good start. And all this is setting us up very nicely for accelerating revenue growth, positive cash flow and to achieve our objective to be cash flow breakeven by 2028 and then revenue growth there -- positive revenue growth there to follow. As a reminder, we are highly focused at Ionis.
We're working in areas where the unmet need is the greatest, working in areas where our technology -- our technologies work most effectively and where we have a very strong track record of success. And those 2 areas are in cardiometabolic diseases as well as in neurological diseases. And we're developing treatments in these areas for both rare and highly prevalent common disease areas.
As I said, we're building on a lot of really strong momentum that we -- based on the successes we've had in 2025 and even in 2024, and that's setting us up for an even more eventful, more exciting transformation set of transformational events in 2026 and beyond. Over the last couple of 2.5 years or so, we've had 6 positive Phase III readouts, 4 approved medicines. You can read them those medicines there. And as I already mentioned, 2 of those medicines are now independently launched successfully by Ionis, setting us up for a great deal of success.
And we've established one of the most exciting innovative pipelines in the industry. Today, we have 11 medicines in late-stage development, many of which are set up to read out Phase III readouts this year, which we'll get into in a moment. So based on the pipeline success, based on the positive readouts, we're set up for a steady cadence of product approvals and launches over the next just through 2028 or actually through 2027.
This is all based on the success we've already had with recent approvals, WAINUA for ATTR polyneuropathy, TRYNGOLZA for FCS, DAWNZERA for HAE. This year, we're expecting 3 product approvals and launches. Olezarsen in sHTG, as already mentioned, we received priority review with a PDUFA date of June 30 of this year. Zilganersen for a devastating neurodegenerative disease called Alexander disease. Zilganersen is expected -- we expect to achieve approval and launch later in the second half of this year.
And bepirovirsen from our partner pipeline for chronic HBV, we announced the first week of January with our partner, GSK, really, really positive results, data demonstrating clinically meaningful functional cures in chronic HBV. And actually, GSK is working to rapidly bring this submissions to regulatory agencies, and they expect to have approval and launch in more than one market by the end of this year.
And based on -- and assuming positive Phase III readouts in additional programs that are expected this year, that sets us up for additional launches next year, pelacarsen for Lp(a)-driven cardiovascular disease, eplontersen for ATTR cardiomyopathy due to read out in the second half of this year. It's a co-development, co-commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca that we're conducting, sefaxersen for IgA nephropathy. And then more to follow, including our Angelman syndrome program. What this means is that we will have launched 4 products independently by the end of this year and with our -- from our partner pipeline by the end of next year, 4 key partner launches, delivering a steady cadence of new medicines to patients to the market.
DAWNZERA was approved on time. We're very proud of this fact. In August of last year as a novel prophylactic treatment for .hereditary angioedema. It is the first and only RNA-targeted medicine for the prevention of HAE attacks in this genetic disease. This is resonating -- the fact the novelty of the mechanism of action is resonating very well with the physicians that treat these patients and manage these patients. There's about 7,000 people with HAE in the United States today. And although there are existing prophylactic treatments on the market today, there's clear dissatisfaction by patients.
They want better efficacy. They want better tolerability, they want better convenience. DAWNZERA offers a compelling product profile that really satisfies all 3 of those components. Substantial and durable efficacy, excellent safety and tolerability and the convenience of once per month or once every 2 months self-administration using a simple auto-injector. The early launch is off to a good start. It's a switch market. Patients are primarily a switch market. Patients that are on standard prophylactic treatment today are being switched from those treatments to DAWNZERA, recognizing that it offers what I just took you through, better efficacy, convenience, tolerability.
And we're seeing switches from all 3 segments. We're seeing switches from existing prophylactic treatments. We're also seeing DAWNZERA being prescribed for patients that manage their disease using on-demand treatment. They're now trying their first ever prophylactic treatment, which is DAWNZERA. And we're seeing newly diagnosed patients move on to DAWNZERA. Now although it's a slower launch than you might -- than a launch into a disease area where there are no treatment options available because it's a switch market, we're still very, very pleased with everything we're seeing in the launch based on patient demand and enthusiasm as well as HCP.
We also got approval in Europe in January, and that launch is now underway with our partner, Otsuka. This is our -- what our cardiometabolic pipeline looks like today, switching gears from HAE into cardiometabolic. We have a rich pipeline of medicines. Our wholly owned pipeline, of course, is anchored by olezarsen for severe hypertriglyceridemia. I also want to point out that we have a follow-on program to olezarsen targeting apoC-III ION775 that entered the clinic early last year, and we demonstrated proof of concept and that supports twice a year, maybe even once per year self-administration.
So more durability, more convenience for patients. And we have other programs in our wholly owned pipeline for cardiometabolic diseases, including our first targeted delivery medicine for cardiac myocytes utilizing TfR1 targeting from our wholly owned pipeline. And then our partner pipeline, of course, is robust as well. Eplontersen for ATTR cardiomyopathy pelacarsen for Lp(a) cardiovascular disease, our AGT program with Kardigan and another targeted delivery strategy for the myocardium targeting phospholamban with our partner, AstraZeneca, which is now in Phase I development.
So a very rich pipeline in cardiometabolic diseases, and it's going to continue to grow. TRYNGOLZA was our first independent launch, which is the first ever FDA-approved medicine for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, severe genetic disease that afflicts about 3,000 patients in the United States today. These patients suffer from a whole range of comorbidities, but most importantly, a potentially fatal bout of acute pancreatitis. We demonstrated robust efficacy, excellent safety and tolerability reductions in acute pancreatitis and the medicine is administered conveniently using an auto-injector once per month.
The launch -- it was a great year for our first year of launch. We saw -- we demonstrated quarter-over-quarter growth for TRYNGOLZA in FCS. A 56% increase in quarter-over-quarter growth from third to fourth quarter in revenue, yielding $108 million in total revenue for the first year of launch, which exceeded all consensus, all estimates that were out there. And of course, the big opportunity for TRYNGOLZA is in the much larger disease indication, severe hypertriglyceridemia. More than 3 million people suffer from severe hypertriglyceridemia, which is defined as triglycerides 500 and above. Normal triglycerides are below 150.
More than 3 million people with above 500, but more than 1 million people, about 1 million people or so with what we call high-risk severe hypertriglyceridemia, patients that have a history of AP, pancreatitis or above 880, which really puts them at risk for acute pancreatitis or other comorbidities. What we demonstrated at the American Heart Association in our presentation last year was highly statistically significant, clinically meaningful reductions of up to 72% reductions in triglycerides on top of standard of care in this patient population and highly statistically significant reduction in acute pancreatitis attacks. -- unprecedented, never been demonstrated before in this patient population, the reductions in AP that we shown in this study.
Same administration as for FCS, very convenient and well accepted. And as we just touched on already, we were notified yesterday that we -- our sNDA for sHTG was accepted with priority review and PDUFA date of June 30. Recent -- early this year, we -- based on HCP demand research that we conducted, we increased our peak product sales for TRYNGOLZA and sHTG from more than $1 billion to more than $2 billion for this opportunity.
And then now shifting gears quickly to neurology, our other main therapeutic area. We have, of course, a proven platform in neurology, having conceived, discovered and developed medicines such as SPINRAZA for SMA, QALSODY for SOD1-ALS, WAINUA for ATTR polyneuropathy. Today, we have 12 medicines in clinical development, 6 wholly owned, including Zilganersen for Alexander disease and our Angelman syndrome medicine, which is in Phase III development and from our partner pipeline as well, including our tau program in Alzheimer's disease with Biogen, , tominersen for Huntington's disease in Phase II development with Roche. And very importantly, a medicine that was discovered here at Ionis and licensed to Biogen as a follow-on to SPINRAZA, salanersen, which supports once per year intrathecal dosing, which will initiate Phase III development very shortly.
Two products I'll highlight from our wholly owned pipeline that are very important. Zilganersen for the treatment of a fatal -- typically fatal leukodystrophy, neurodegenerative disease called Alexander disease. We reported positive Phase III data in September of last year. And we've now submitted our NDA for Zilganersen. That data included disease-modifying benefit never been shown in this patient population before. The NDA is now submitted, and we're expecting to launch in the second half of this year, and we've initiated now an expanded access program for this disease indication.
This is important not only for patients, not only because it will potentially -- we expect it will provide meaningful revenue for Ionis, but also it represents Ionis' first of what we expect to be many independent launches in the neurology space. And then there's Obudanersen for the treatment of Angelman syndrome, which is now in Phase III development. This is, again, a rare disease, much larger than for Alexander's disease, more than 100,000 people in major geographies with Alexander disease.
This is a neurodevelopmental disease, not a neurodegenerative disease. We've been granted breakthrough therapy designation based on our Phase I/II data, and we expect to complete enrollment in the Phase 3 REVEAL study this year with data expected next year. So we're not only delivering on the pipeline, we're delivering financially, and we're very well positioned to continue to drive substantial value through revenue generation and achieve our objective of cash flow breakeven by 2028. And what we're seeing just from the products over the next couple of years that we expect to be launched or have been launched over the last couple of years, more than $4 billion in potential annual peak product revenue from our Ionis-owned medicines that we launch ourselves.
Based on royalties, more than $2 billion from partnered medicines exceeding more than $6 billion in revenue. So a very bright future for the company financially. And I think I'll wrap up -- I think I'm wrapping up here. As I mentioned, 2025 was a breakthrough year for the company and 2026 is set up to be another breakthrough year for the company. We're expecting 5 Phase 3 data readouts this year. One of already -- one positive readout has already happened, as I mentioned, at bepirovirsen for chronic HBV, but pelacarsen, eplontersen and the others, resulting in 4 NDA submissions, 3 product launches, 2 of which are independent and multiple Phase II data readouts, including our tau program with Biogen, which is expected around midyear this year.
So I think that's my last slide, Jay, and I'll just now hand it off to you for questions.
Okay. Great. Thank you so much, Brett. And congrats again on the priority review. Maybe that's a good place to start, and it looks like this is really going to be a transformational year for Ionis with your 5 registrational studies reading out, one of them already positive. And now you get the priority review with a potential midyear launch for olezarsen in sHTG.
Can you just talk about your commercial readiness? I know you said that you -- yesterday during your quarterly update, you mentioned that you'd be ready to launch at any time. And now that we know it's potentially going to be midyear. Just talk about some of the planning that's been done and the resources that you plan to have in place for launch.
Yes. The ability to be already out there in FCS in this patient community that is patients that are suffering from severely elevated triglycerides is a big advantage for us, right? So we're already out there. Our presence is well recognized in the HCP community and in the patient community. The efficacy, the safety, the tolerability, the availability of our team and patient support programs and so on has resonated extremely well in this community.
I guess what I'm getting at is that we built our reputation as a leader in the triglyceride space, if you will. And that's resonating really well with treaters who not only treat FCS patients, but they also treat sHTG patients and they're asking when can I get my sHTG patients on this medicine. Of course, they have to wait until we get the label expanded to include sHTG. But my point is that the enthusiasm that we've built based on the positive outcomes and experiences with FCS is going to go really well for us in sHTG and building our reputation.
We've been assuming a priority review just to make sure we are prepared for launch since last year. And we've now hired -- and we actually have recently earlier this year, hired our full field team to support the anticipated summer launch, early July launch for TRYNGOLZA in sHTG, that's about 200 or so field team representatives. They, of course, are focused on helping with the FCS launch, identification of patients, but also in educating on severe hypertriglyceridemia, what to look out for and those kinds of things build further strengthening our reputation.
Our medical affairs team has been out there also for quite some time in preparing the field for TRYNGOLZA and educating on severe hypertriglyceridemia, again, establishing further strengthening our leadership there. Commercial supply is in place. We're in a good position. We're in good shape for the initial launch from a supply standpoint. So that's all taken care of. It's important to recognize that this is our first launch in a highly prevalent disease indication, FCS and HAE, of course, rare disease indications. And we're well prepared from a supply standpoint.
Okay. Great. And then I guess, just based on your leadership in the management of elevated triglycerides and your experience in FCS launch, how are you thinking about your launch strategy in sHTG? Will you initially focus on a certain segment of patients like those with a history of acute pancreatitis? Or how are you thinking about going out at launch for sHTG?
Yes. There -- we've been thinking about this for quite some time and receiving a great deal of feedback from the endocrinologists, the cardiologists, the lipid specialists, pancreatologists that manage these patients on who they would treat most urgently. And not surprisingly, although there's more than 3 million people estimated in the United States with sHTG, there's the more at-risk patient population that have already had a history or that have a history of acute pancreatitis.
The patients that have triglycerides above 500 with AP history or patients that have triglycerides above 880 with or without a history of AP. Once you're above 880, there's really an inflection in the risk of potentially fatal acute pancreatitis attack. These are -- based on the HCP demand research that we have conducted and investigations, other types of investigations we've done, this is clearly the priority out of the gate. These are the patients that physicians feel are at the greatest risk and they want to treat. There's about 1 million, as I said, those patients in the U.S. Also patients, you can also lump in there patients that have high triglycerides above 500 that have other comorbidities versus history of cardiovascular disease or history of diabetes or have diabetes, for example.
This is the high-risk patient population that we're going to focus on initially because that's -- those are the ones that physicians are going to treat most urgently. There's also patients that don't have a history of AP that are about 500 to 880. We expect some of those patients to be for TRYNGOLZA to be prescribed for as well, but that's not going to be the focus initially. Eventually, we expect to expand to that milder population, if you will, but that's not the focus as the initial focus.
Okay. Understood. And then I apologize for asking you this question because I know that the news is brand new. This morning, but a lot of investors ask about the impact on your revenue guidance. I know there's a lot of moving parts there, but any preliminary thoughts you could share with us there? Or is that more of a stay tuned type of thing?
It's going to be more of a stay tuned thing, Jay, but I'll confirm what we said in our earnings call yesterday is that everything we presented yesterday on guidance was assuming a standard review. And what we also said was that if we receive priority review, that, of course, gets us into the sHTG market much faster, 4 months faster.
And therefore, it will affect our guidance, and it will improve our guidance. And we're going to share our revision or changes to our guidance at our end of Q1 earnings call coming up. And we'll also be able to -- it will also allow us to provide product level revenue guidance at that time for TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA.
Okay. Makes sense. We'll look forward to that. So maybe just shifting gears for a moment to DAWNZERA. I know you talked a lot about the different switching dynamics that are taking place in HAE. And it seems like the dosing frequency is a big advantage for DAWNZERA. So just curious if you're planning to develop a follow-on program that could have even less frequent dosing for HAE.
We certainly have the capabilities. We've proven that with our olezarsen follow-on, as I touched on earlier. We have a wealth of experience, not just in novel medicinal chemistry approaches for antisense oligonucleotides, but also siRNA technology too and the screening know-how and medicinal chemistry and so on. And using Ionis chemistry, we have -- our first si to enter the clinic was our olezarsen follow-on, which clearly easily supports biannual dosing and it's probably based on the durability we're seeing, it could support up to a year, once per year dosing.
And we replicated that not in the clinic, but certainly preclinically yet, maybe we'll get into the clinic soon for pelacarsen follow-on, same profile as the olezarsen follow-on. We're certainly tuned into the competitive landscape in HAE. It's hard to beat the efficacy of the new treatments, the new prophylactic treatments DAWNZERA for HAE prophylaxis. So it's all about durability, less frequent dosing convenience. We have the capability to do that. We're working on it, but we haven't stated any specific guidance to when and if and when you'll see something move towards the clinic. But we certainly -- it's on our radar, and we have the capability to do it.
Okay. Understood. We will look forward to that. And maybe if I could just squeeze in one last question. I know that neuroscience is another area of leadership for Ionis. So I wanted to make sure that we got some color on your neuroscience portfolio and looking forward to the potential launch of ailganersen, can you just talk about the synergies that you can capture from zilganersen and apply to Obudanersen in your neurology portfolio? Are those both going to be global launches? And I guess, how should we expect that portfolio to evolve?
Yes. Congratulations on the pronunciation for Obudanersen. Some people struggle with that. Good job. So yes, Alexander's disease, is -- we're very proud of the work we've done in this space. We've worked with the families, the patient community for Alexander's disease for quite some time, several years now. We were -- it was a risky study. It was a very novel study. We went directly to Phase III development. We thought we had the right drug, the right target and the right design to be successful, and we were highly statistically disease-modifying impact on the primary endpoint and several secondary endpoints. And has been really well received by the community.
It represents, as I mentioned before, our first independent launch in neurology. Of course, we have a long history in neurology, right? We are the ones that conceived, discovered and move forward QALSODY for SOD1-ALS, the first disease-modifying treatment for ALS, any cause of ALS and SPINRAZA. Alexander disease is -- gets the Ionis presence, the direct presence working directly with HCP, working directly with the patients because we're the ones delivering the medicine directly to those communities. And that is important in its own right for that medicine, but it also sets us up really well for our Angelman's program, which will read out next year for a much larger rare disease indication.
It builds up our reputation for other programs like in prion disease, which we have a Phase II study that's ongoing that will read out next year and other programs in the space of dementia and neurodegenerative and neurodevelopmental diseases. The -- as far as the access globally, we will ensure that our medicines that we take forward independently are available for patients globally to the best of our ability.
With that said, we -- our business model remains today as it was when we went on this journey to become fully integrated when we initiated our journey to become fully integrated to focus on the U.S. market for commercialization to find partners or distributors outside the U.S. to distribute our medicines more globally. As we did with HAE for Otsuka, Sobi for TRYNGOLZA. And Alexander disease, we'll partner ex U.S. as well to find -- to make sure that medicine is available.
There's a lot of interest from partner -- potential partners. We'll get a partnership done before we launch for OUS availability. And then as we continue to develop our plans, we will -- we need to think through when is the right time for Ionis to begin to emerge out of the U.S. market or I should say, expand from the U.S. market to other geographies. It could be the Angelman's program. It could be some other program that follows out of that in the neurology space. So stay tuned for that. But for Zilga, we'll have a partner secured for OUS commercialization before we launch.
Okay. Sounds great. You've got a lot of options and really looking forward to what's playing out to be a transformational year at Ionis. So congrats on all the progress. And thank you again, Brett, for making time for us today. Really a pleasure to catch up with you.
It was a pleasure, Jay. Great catching up with you, too.
Thank you. Thanks, everybody.
Take care.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Oppenheimer 36th Annual Healthcare Life Sciences Conference
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- PDUFA: Olezarsen sNDA für severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG) akzeptiert mit Priority Review und PDUFA-Datum 30. Juni 2026 — potenzieller Start Ende Juni/Anfang Juli.
- Firmenstatus: Ionis präsentiert sich als voll integriertes Commercial-Biotech mit mehreren erwarteten Zulassungen und Launches 2026–2027.
📌 Strategische Highlights
- Launch-Readiness: Feldteam (~200 Außendienstmitarbeiter) und medizinische Betreuung aufgebaut; kommerzielle Lieferkette für TRYNGOLZA/olezarsen vorhanden.
- Go-to-Market: Initialer Fokus auf Hochrisikopatienten (Triglyceride>880 mg/dL oder Vorgeschichte akuter Pankreatitis; ~1 Mio. US-Patienten).
- Pipeline: ~11 Late‑Stage‑Programme; 5 registrierende Phase‑3‑Readouts 2026 (inkl. zilganersen, pelacarsen, eplontersen) sowie wichtige Partnerprogramme (GSK, AstraZeneca, Biogen).
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Regulatorisch: Priority Review für olezarsen ist neu und verkürzt die Zeit bis Marktzugang um ~4 Monate gegenüber Standard-Review.
- Guidance: Aktuelle Jahresprognose basierte auf Standard-Review; Management kündigt Guidance‑Update für Q1‑Earnings an, Upgrade wahrscheinlich.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Kommerz: Wie segmentiert man sHTG‑Launch? Management bestätigt Start mit Hochrisiko‑Patienten, Expansion später.
- Finanzen: Einfluss auf Umsatz‑Guidance gefragt; Management verschiebt konkrete Anpassung auf Q1‑Ergebnisveranstaltung.
- Produktentwicklung: Nachfrage zu Folgeprogrammen mit längerer Wirkungsdauer (biannual/annual dosing) — Capability vorhanden, aber keine konkreten Starttermine.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bewertung: Priority Review und ein aufgebautes kommerzielles Team sind kurzfristige Katalysatoren und reduzieren Zulassungs-/Launch‑Risiko; eine Guidance‑Anhebung wird erwartet. Risiken bleiben: Erstattung, kommerzielle Durchdringung in einem Wechselmarkt und Ausprägung der Nachfrage außerhalb der initial priorisierten Hochrisikogruppe.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to Ionis' Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded.
At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Wade Walke, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, to lead off the call. Please begin.
Thank you, Keith. Before we begin, I encourage everyone to go to the Investors section of the Ionis website to view the press release and related financial tables we will be discussing today, including a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financials. We believe non-GAAP financial results better represent the economics of our business and how we manage our business. We've also posted slides on our website to accompany today's call.
With me on the call this morning are Brett Monia, our Chief Executive Officer; Holly Kordasiewicz, Chief Development Officer; Kyle Jenne, Chief Global Product Strategy Officer; and Beth Hougen, Chief Financial Officer. Eugene Schneider, Chief Clinical Development Officer; and Eric Swayze, Executive Vice President of Research will also join us for the Q&A portion of the call.
I would like to draw your attention to Slide 3, which contains our forward-looking language statement. During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations and beliefs. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially. I encourage you to consult the risk factors contained in our SEC filings for additional detail.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Brett.
Thanks, Wade. Good morning, everybody, and thanks for joining us today. 2025 was a defining year for Ionis, marked by the successful execution of our first 2 independent launches and multiple positive data readouts across our rich pipeline. These achievements, together with our expectation for multiple additional value-driving events this year positions Ionis for continued success through 2026 and beyond.
TRYNGOLZA, the first FDA-approved treatment for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, or FCS, exceeded expectations in its first year on market. TRYNGOLZA's excellent performance was driven by a compelling clinical profile and strong launch execution. TRYNGOLZA was also launched in Europe late last year, and we're pleased to see our partner, Sobi, bring this transformational medicine to more patients.
In August, we kicked off our second independent launch with the FDA approval of DAWNZERA, prophylactic treatment for hereditary angioedema or HAE. As the first and only RNA-targeted medicine for HAE, DAWNZERA offers a compelling profile that is resonating with prescribers and patients. And just last month, DAWNZERA received European approval, enabling our partner Otsuka to bring important medicines to patients across the region.
In 2025, we accelerated the strong momentum with the olezarsen pivotal results in severe hypertriglyceridemia, a broad patient population with high unmet need. Further extending our leadership in the development of innovative treatments for diseases associated with high triglycerides. Olezarsen showed highly significant and substantial reductions in triglycerides in an acute pancreatitis attacks establishing olezarsen as the first medicine to demonstrate a benefit in reducing acute pancreatitis risk in this patient population.
Based on these groundbreaking Phase III results, we were pleased to receive breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA. Additionally, late last year, we submitted the sNDA and anticipate receiving acceptance very soon. Importantly, we are on track to be launch ready by June.
We also delivered positive Phase III results for our innovative medicine, zilganersen, the first to demonstrate a disease-modifying benefit in Alexander's disease, a rare and orphan fatal neurodegenerative disease. We submitted our NDA in January, and we anticipate approval and launch in the second half of this year. Assuming approval, zilganersen will be our first independent launch from our leading neurology franchise.
Together, these groundbreaking results meaningfully expand Ionis' commercial opportunity and showcase our commitment to innovation and the power of our platform to deliver first-in-class RNA targeted medicines for patients with serious diseases. Complementing our rich wholly owned pipeline is our partnered pipeline, which targets both rare and highly prevalent life-threatening diseases. We expect multiple Phase III data readouts this year from our partner pipeline.
In January, we announced the first of these results with positive top line data for Bepirovirsen, a potential first-in-class medicine for chronic hepatitis B that demonstrated clinically meaningful and unprecedented functional cure rates in the Phase III program. GSK is preparing global regulatory submissions and assuming approval, expects to begin bringing Bepirovirsen to the millions of people living with chronic HBV later this year.
Looking ahead, we anticipate results from 2 major cardiovascular outcome trials, the pelacarsen Lp(a) HORIZON trial midyear and the Eplontersen CARDIO-TTRansform trial in the second half of 2026.
In addition, sefaxersen for IgA nephropathy and Ulefnersen for FUS-ALS are also positioned for Phase III readouts later this year. If positive, these outcomes position our partner pipeline to deliver 4 key additional launches by the end of next year, driving a meaningful increase in our total revenue through royalties and milestone payments for many years to come.
With strong momentum across our business, including our first 2 independent launches and advancing wholly owned pipeline and a robust partner portfolio, Ionis is well positioned to deliver a steady stream of transformational medicines for patients thereby driving substantial value and sustained growth.
In addition to our very important recent commercial and pipeline achievements, 2025 was also a strong year of financial performance for Ionis. Revenue increased more than 30% over 2024 with growing contributions from our marketed medicines. This significant revenue growth combined with disciplined investment enabled us to exceed our financial guidance and as Beth will discuss later in the call, this momentum underpins our strong 2026 financial outlook. Importantly, we remain on track to achieve our goal of reaching cash flow breakeven by 2028.
Now before I turn it over to Holly, I'd like to take a moment to formally introduce her in her new role as Chief Development Officer. Since joining Ionis, Holly has played a central role in building and expanding our R&D neurology franchise, resulting in the creation of an industry-leading pipeline of RNA-targeted therapies for a broad range of rare and common neurological disorders.
Holly has also played a strategic role more broadly in creating Ionis' leading research and development organization and brings a deep understanding of our technology. We are pleased to have Holly in her new role and confident she will continue to drive substantial value and continued success for Ionis and all Ionis stakeholders.
Now over to you Holly.
Thank you, Brett. I'm honored to lead our world-class development team, which has recently delivered multiple concept data readouts. I've had the privilege of working closely with many members in the development team over the years, and I look forward to building on that strong foundation.
Looking ahead, our focus remains on innovation and ensuring strong execution to enable Ionis to continue delivering a steady cadence of transformational medicines to people with serious diseases for years to come. Olezarsen is a clear example of our leadership in discovering and developing transformational medicines. The ground breaking Phase III data generated from the CORE and CORE2 trials position Olezarsen to a new standard of care for the broad sHTG patient population.
As previously presented and published, our pivotal studies evaluated Olezarsen and people with sHTG who had triglyceride levels substantially higher than the 500 mg per deciliter despite being on standard of care with the lowering therapies that they find, putting them at risk of life-threatening acute pancreatitis.
In CORE and CORE2, olezarsen demonstrated highly statistically significant and clinically meaningful mean reductions of up to 72% and placebo-adjusted fasting triglycerides at 6 months, the primary end point. Olezarsen also significantly reduced acute pancreatitis events, making it the first and fully treatment to achieve this positive outcome in people with sHTG.
Olezarsen achieved a highly statistically significant 85% reduction in adjudicated acute pancreatitis events. It's important to remember that the main goal of triglyceride management in sHTG is to prevent AP attacks and olezarsen is the first medicine to demonstrate it can do just that.
This remarkable reduction in AP attack rate was also reflected in the number of patients needed to treat to prevent a potentially fatal pancreatitis attack. Just 4 patients needed to be treated with olezarsen for only 12 months to prevent 1 AP attack in the highest risk subgroup. For context, statins used for primary prevention have a number needed to treat in a range of 500 to 100 to prevent 1 cardiovascular event over 5 years. We believe these unprecedented results position olezarsen to meet the substantial unmet need of people with sHTG. We submitted the sNDA at the end of 2025 and it is currently within the FDA filing review period. We requested priority review and expect a decision from the FDA shortly.
As Kyle will highlight, launch preparations are already well underway, and we look forward to bringing olezarsen to people with sHTG later this year.
In addition to olezarsen, we're poised for another independent launch later this year. We plan to bring to zilganersen to patients with Alexander disease an ultra-rare leukodystrophy that profoundly impacts patients and families who today have no approved disease-modifying therapies. Our positive Phase III results for zilganersen mark the first time any therapy demonstrated a disease-modifying impact in this condition. We recently submitted our NDA based on these groundbreaking data. In the interim, we have initiated an expanded access program to provide eligible patients with access to zilganersen while the review is ongoing.
We expect zilganersen to be the first of the numerous additional independent launches from our leading neurology pipeline. Underscoring Ionis' ability to consistently translate scientific leadership into important medicines for our patients.
Turning now to our Phase III program for Obudanersen, previously referred to as ION582, our investigational medicine for Angelman Syndrome. Late last year, we received breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA. In recognition of Obudanersen promising mid-stage data and the serious unmet need in this disorder.
Angelman Syndrome is a rare neuro developmental disorder that causes profound and lifelong physical and cognitive impairment. Estimated effect more than 100,000 people globally. Obudanersen is advancing in the Phase III REVEAL study with full enrollment expected this year and data next year. In addition to zilganersen and obudanersen, we have a rich neurology pipeline advancing in development, including ION464 for multiple system atrophy and ION717 for Prion disease.
We're evaluating both investigational medicines and ongoing studies in patients. Based on the data generated to date, we're encouraged by the level of target engagement in the safety and tolerability profile. As a result, we plan to add additional dose cohort student programs to fully explore the therapeutic potential of these medicines. With these expansions, we now expect to report data from both programs next year.
As we look to key upcoming events, in addition to those highlighted by Brett, we're looking forward to the anticipated approval of high-dose SPINRAZA, which has a PDUFA date of April 1. We're also evaluating -- we're also looking forward to the Phase III study start of Salanersen evaluating annual dosing for SMA and Sapablursen for polycythemia vera. We're over 3 mid-stage partner programs are set to read out this year, which in addition to multiple regulatory milestones position 2026 to be another catalyst-rich year.
And with that, I'll turn it over to Kyle.
Thank you, Holly. With a strong first year for TRYNGOLZA, an encouraging start for DAWNZERA and 2 more anticipated independent launches this year, our commercial team remains focused on flawless execution to continue bringing our important medicines to patients.
In the fourth quarter, TRYNGOLZA continued to gain momentum, generating $50 million in net product sales, reflecting a 56% increase in revenues quarter-over-quarter. And notably, December was our strongest month of 2025 underscoring continued growing demand. This performance drove full year revenue to $108 million.
The efforts of our team, together with our innovative initiatives to identify patients continue to deliver positive results. We saw quarter-over-quarter expansion in both the breadth and depth of physicians prescribing TRYNGOLZA reflecting positive experiences among clinicians and patients.
Q4 was a strong quarter of adding new prescribers who span a broad mix of specialties, including cardiologists, endocrinologists and lipidologists. Overall, approximately 75% of prescriptions came from these specialists. This provider mix and growing prescriber base positions us well as we prepare to expand into the broader sHTG population. Our leadership in establishing FCS access and coverage continues to benefit FCS patients and elevate TRYNGOLZA performance.
Patients are gaining access to TRYNGOLZA quickly with time from prescription to first fill consistently exceeding our aggressive expectations. The current payer mix is approximately 60% commercial and 40% government and both clinically diagnosed and genetically confirmed patients continued to secure coverage.
All the strong momentum we saw from TRYNGOLZA in 2025 has carried into the first part of 2026. There has been no meaningful impact on cancellation or discontinuation rates following a new market entrant. In fact, TRYNGOLZA continues to deliver strong growth in referrals and patient starts. Physicians continue to report very high satisfaction with both their prescribing experience and TRYNGOLZA's overall product profile, including efficacy, safety, tolerability and convenience.
At the same time, pricing dynamics in the market are evolving. We are effectively managing these changes and preserving broad access and coverage for FCS patients. We are building on our leadership position in FCS as we prepare for the anticipated sHTG approval and launch later this year. Many people with sHTG struggle to manage to triglyceride levels with current treatments.
In the U.S. alone, more than 1 million people have high-risk sHTG, defined as individuals with triglyceride levels above 880 milligrams per deciliter or above 500 milligrams per deciliter with a history of acute pancreatitis, or other high-risk comorbidities, including progressive cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes.
Following our groundbreaking Phase III results, we conducted robust HCP demand research that confirmed strong enthusiasm for olezarsen and its potential to address patient unmet needs. HCPs found the low number needed to treat to prevent one potentially fatal acute pancreatitis attack, especially compelling. With the anticipated upcoming sHTG launch, we are continuing to engage with payers ahead of our planned price adjustment for the broader sHTG patient population. This work is anchored in olezarsen's compelling clinical profile and includes educating on the clinical and economic burden of disease and associated budget impact considerations. Ultimately, our goal is to provide the broadest access possible to patients and maximize the value of olezarsen.
I am pleased to share that we now have our full field organization in place with approximately 200 field team members hired, trained and deployed. Our field team expansion materially increases share of voice and expands our reach to HCPs. Today, the team is actively supporting access to TRYNGOLZA for people with FCS. With our expanded team, we are positioned to effectively engage approximately 20,000 high-volume sHTG prescribers across the U.S., providing the scale and reach required for a successful launch in the larger indication.
As we shared last month, based on the positive Phase III data and strength of olezarsen's product profile, we increased our annual fee revenue estimates for olezarsen to more than $2 billion. And today, we're even more confident in the blockbuster opportunity of olezarsen. Our groundbreaking data, strong HCP enthusiasm and first-mover advantage position olezarsen to realize its full potential as the new standard of care for people with severe hypertriglyceridemia.
Turning to DAWNZERA. The launch is off to an encouraging start. We're seeing early adoption across all patient segments, including patients switching from prior prophylactic therapies patients previously using on-demand therapy only and treatment-naive patients. And we have seen strong participation in our free trial program with 100% conversion to paid therapy to date.
Initial feedback from both physicians and patients shows high enthusiasm for DAWNZERA's differentiated mechanism of action, strong efficacy and patient-friendly profile, including a self-administered auto-injector and potential for the longest dosing interval, which is translating into increasing demand. Notably, we are also seeing a growing number of repeat prescribers due to the positive experience prescribers and patients are having with DAWNZERA.
Additionally, we are seeing an extremely high conversion from referral to patient start. While it will take time to transition patients from other HAE therapies as we educate patients and physicians about the attractive profile DAWNZERA offers, we are confident we have the right drug, the right strategy and the right team to successfully bring DAWNZERA to people with HAE. Importantly, with strong launch fundamentals today, we expect DAWNZERA to meaningfully contribute to our growing commercial revenue this year and we reaffirm annual peak sales potential in excess of $500 million.
Turning now to zilganersen for Alexander disease. We expect it to be the first independent launch from our neurology portfolio. Based on the Phase III results, zilganersen offers a potentially meaningful advance for patients and caregivers in a disease with no approved disease-modifying treatments. With the NDA submitted and acceptance expected soon, we are preparing to launch in the second half of this year.
Ahead of launch, we are leveraging our strong relationships with the neurology community and patient advocacy groups to support awareness and diagnosis. Our medical affairs team is working with top leukodystrophy centers. Our marketing team is in place, and we will bring the customer-facing team on board ahead of approval.
At launch, our priorities will include ensuring continued access for clinical trial participants, facilitating timely access for diagnosed patients, improving patient identification and ensuring availability. Importantly, we believe zilganersen could be the first of many first-in-class disease-modifying treatments from Ionis' industry-leading neurology pipeline.
2025 was marked by strong commercial execution. Looking ahead to 2026, the commercial organization is well positioned to build on this momentum. We remain focused on maximizing the full potential of TRYNGOLZA's in FCS, and DAWNZERA in HAE while preparing to execute 2 additional launches this year, further expanding Ionis' reach to even more patients in need of our medicines.
With that, I'll now turn it over to Beth.
Thank you, Kyle. 2025 was a defining year for Ionis across our business, resulting in our impressive financial performance. We exceeded our guidance across all metrics through exceptional execution and disciplined financial management. This performance was underpinned by accelerating revenue growth from our marketed medicines, alongside sustained progress across our pipeline.
We generated $944 million in revenue in 2025, representing a 34% increase year-over-year. Revenue was split between commercial products, which generated $436 million or 46% of our total revenue and R&D collaborations, which generated $508 million or 54% of our total revenue. These results underscore the value of our diversified revenue streams. Our marketed medicines provide growing recurring revenue and increasing operating leverage. While revenue from R&D collaborations acts as a financial accelerator. Together, our diversified revenue streams mitigate risk, enhance financial flexibility and create multiple pathways to sustained growth.
2025 was a strong first year for the TRYNGOLZA launch in which we earned $108 million in product sales with quarter-over-quarter growth throughout the year. This included $50 million of product sales in the fourth quarter, representing a 56% increase over the third quarter. We earned $8 million in DAWNZERA product sales in 2025 from the initial few months of launch. Since launch, we have been offering a free trial program, which has seen strong participation and 100% conversion to paid therapy to date. While still early, this provides encouraging visibility into anticipated DAWNZERA revenue growth.
Royalty revenues increased 11% to $285 million in 2025. And anchored by meaningful contributions from SPINRAZA and growing royalties from WAINUA. Our R&D revenue also increased generating more than 20% growth year-over-year. driven by progress across multiple partner programs. The largest contributor was the Sapablursen license fee, underscoring our ability to monetize noncore assets to support our ongoing and planned launches and our pipeline.
As planned, total non-GAAP operating expenses increased modestly year-over-year, highlighting our commitment to disciplined investment. The increase was primarily driven by investments related to the U.S. launch of TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA and accelerated investments to prepare for the sHTG launch following the groundbreaking Phase III data. Our excellent progress last year, coupled with disciplined financial management positions us well for accelerating growth and value creating.
Our financial guidance for this year reflects Ionis' evolution to a commercial stage biotechnology company launching multiple medicines while remaining steadfast in our commitment to drive operating leverage as we advance our high-value pipeline. We project to earn revenue in the range of $800 million to $825 million from numerous sources, this represents an increase of approximately 20% over last year after adjusting for the onetime $280 million Sapablursen license fee. We expect the year-over-year increase to be driven by commercial revenue growth.
As Holly mentioned, the sNDA is still within the review period. As a result, our guidance assumes a standard review for olezarsen which sets us up for anticipated sHTG approval in the fourth quarter. If we achieve priority review, we expect our guidance to improve. Since we are awaiting acceptance of the sNDA for olezarsen, we plan to provide TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA product level revenue guidance at our first quarter earnings call. So today, we will share some high-level perspective and directional insights to help frame expectations.
We continue to see strong demand for TRYNGOLZA with FCS patients, and we expect continued patient growth this year. At the same time, we have been actively engaging with payers to ensure FCS patients continue to have broad access to TRYNGOLZA ahead of the anticipated sHTG approval. As a result, we expect a meaningful decline in TRYNGOLZA revenues throughout the year ahead of the sHTG launch, followed by accelerating growth as uptake build.
As we prepare for the sHTG launch, we are establishing a reimbursement strategy designed to achieve broad access while maximizing the value of olezarsen drive sustainable long-term growth. Following anticipated approval, we expect to launch quickly with momentum building as we begin to bring olezarsen to this much larger patient population. And importantly, as Kyle highlighted, we are more confident than ever in the multibillion dollar opportunity for olezarsen.
For DAWNZERA, we expect product sales to meaningfully contribute to total commercial revenue growth and to grow steadily as the launch progresses throughout the year. Given that HAE is primarily a switch market, and we remain in the early stages of launch, we expect patient conversion from existing therapies to take some time.
That said, with strong launch fundamentals, including increasing demand, a high referral to start conversion rate positive patient-reported outcomes and rapid uptake of our free trial program, we are confident we have the elements in place to drive substantial growth. from our partnered commercial programs, we anticipate earning substantial royalties for medicines on the market today. We expect SPINRAZA to remain resilient and WAINUA to continue its upward trajectory this year.
Collectively, our expanding commercial portfolio positions us for robust revenue growth and is expected to represent an increasing share of total revenue year-over-year. Our R&D revenue from existing collaborations remains a meaningful contributor to our total revenue guidance. As such, it's an important financial accelerator. With a rich pipeline and many partnered programs advancing, we have the potential to earn numerous milestone payments throughout the year.
So far this quarter, we've already earned $65 million including $15 million for the EU approval of DAWNZERA and $50 million when Roche initiated a Phase I trial for an investigational medicine for Alzheimer's disease. Additionally, we are eligible to earn milestone payments for the Phase III initiations of Salanersen and Sapablursen as well as numerous regulatory milestone payments for Bepirovirsen and pelacarsen.
Overall, our 2026 revenue outlook reflects the strength of our unique financial profile which includes numerous commercial and R&D revenue streams that enable us to achieve growing revenue through multiple pathways. We project our 2026 operating expenses to increase in the low-teen percentage range compared to last year, with revenue growing faster than expenses, driving improved operating leverage. This modest increase reflects our commitment to financial discipline as we bring multiple medicines directly to patients and advance their pipeline.
Our planned expense growth will continue to be driven by our sales and marketing expenses as we invest to support the success of our multiple ongoing and planned launches. 2026 will be an important year of disciplined commercial investment as we prepare for our first launch in a broad indication with annual peak sales projected to exceed $2 billion. We expect our R&D expenses to remain steady this year, similar to last year. As late-stage studies reach completion, we are redeploying our resources for the drugs in our pipeline that we expect to fuel our next phase of growth.
With sizable revenues and modest expense growth, we are projecting a non-GAAP operating loss between $500 million and $550 million. This represents a similar level compared to 2025, excluding the onetime sapablursen license fee last year and assuming a standard review for olezarsen. Importantly, we project to end the year with a well-capitalized balance sheet, including cash and investments of approximately $1.6 billion.
The projected year-over-year change in cash reflects the use of $433 million earmarked to repay the remaining 2026 convertible notes. In addition, it reflects our prudent fiscal management as we make strategic investments to bring our medicines directly to patients, including inventory build for the anticipated sHTG launch and continued advancement of our wholly owned medicines in development.
Looking beyond this year with 2 launches underway and more planned for this year and next, Ionis remains well positioned to achieve our goal of accelerating revenue growth and achieving cash flow breakeven by 2028, driving long-term value creation.
And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Brett.
Thank you, Beth. 2025 was indeed a defining year for Ionis. We successfully transitioned into a fully integrated commercial stage company. Our first 2 independent launches were initiated, highlighted by TRYNGOLZA for FCS, which drove significant revenue growth. Importantly, we delivered multiple landmark data readouts that position us to continue driving accelerating value.
We expect growth in 2026 to be driven by several key catalysts this year, some of which we've already achieved. Notably, we are on track for 3 additional launches, 2 of which are independent, including Ionis' first launch in a broad patient population sHTG.
We are also on track for 5 late-stage data readouts across our partnered portfolio with 1 positive readout already achieved. With strong commercial momentum and advancing high-value pipeline and a clear path to cash flow breakeven by 2028, we believe Ionis is exceptionally well positioned to deliver transformational medicines for patients and accelerating value for shareholders for years and years to come.
And with that, we'll open the call up for questions.
[Operator Instructions] And this morning's first question comes from Yaron Werber with TD Cowen.
2. Question Answer
Congrats really a lot of solid progress. Maybe just one question, Beth, for you on the guidance. I mean, so it sounds like you're not -- your guidance right now is not assuming any sHTG sales. You're assuming really not a lot of new royalty income from all the potential milestone payments and you're expecting that TRYNGOLZA will get impacted, it sounds like you're potentially matching the price of REDEMPLO. Is that correct? And then if you don't mind, I have a quick follow-up more on WAINUA on the study coming up.
So let me kind of -- there were a few things in there, so let me see if I can break it all down. So we are assuming sales and revenue from olezarsen in the sHTG patient population. But with the assumption of standard review, that would be in really just the fourth quarter of the year. So it will be a FCS driven revenues for TRYNGOLZA between now and the launch of SHTG after approval. Obviously, priority review would improve that guidance we expect.
We do anticipate that WAINUA will continue to grow. We do anticipate that there could be revenues from bepirovirsen for example, once it were to get to market. Right now, that's going to be late in the year most likely. So there's not a lot of contribution in that in our guidance.
We're really focused on the regulatory initiatives, the acceptance of the NDA as well as the approvals to drive R&D revenues for bepirovirsen as well as the potential NDA acceptance for pelacarsen assuming positive Phase III data. So I think overall, looking at a really strong guidance given that we're assuming standard review. It's a 20% or so increase year-over-year on a like-for-like basis by taking the sapablursen out of the equation. That puts us on an apples-to-apples basis. And I think that 20% increase is really strong.
And as it relates to pricing for this year, we are continuing to actively engage with payers. Obviously, those are confidential discussions. But really, what we want to make sure first and foremost is that we continue to ensure broad access for TRYNGOLZA prior to the sHTG approval. Those discussions are going very well.
Based on those discussions, we do expect a meaningful decline in TRYNGOLZA revenues throughout the year ahead of the sHTG launch, as Beth reflected in her comments. But post the approval in sHTG, we expect accelerating growth, as you would expect, right, as that launch progresses throughout the balance of the year.
Really, our focus remains on balancing the broad patient access with long-term value realization for this program. And so we're continuing to do that work. We're on track to deliver on that work, and we'll announce price when we conclude that work later this year.
Yaron you had a question about...
Yes. Just on the cardio transform as we're now beginning to really kind of focus on that next everybody. Can you give us a sense of what percentage of patients are honest, a stabilizer at baseline because it was mostly an add-on strategy? And maybe what percent will only be on WAINUA alone essentially head-to-head against placebo, if you can, any color.
I'll start. Eugene, please jump in if you want to add anything. So Yaron what we've been saying and is playing out very nicely is that we have a good balance at baseline of patients not on stabilizer tafamidis versus patients on tafamidis at baseline. It's not quite 50-50, we have more patients on tafamidis than naive at baseline, but it's well balanced.
It's not capped, but we do not have -- but that's where we ended up. We have had some drop-ins during the course of the study, but it's not meaningful. It hasn't been that many. And we are working on a baseline presentation. We don't know the timing of that presentation yet. But we are working on it, and we'll be able to share that data hopefully at some point soon.
Eugene, anything more to add?
No, great one Brett.
And the next question comes from Salveen Richter with Goldman Sachs.
Just maybe help us understand what you're seeing for reimbursement in FCS given the competitors' lower price. And then just help us understand kind of this end pricing dynamic between the competitor and yourselves for sHTG and how that would essentially provide broader population access for yourselves. But I'm just trying to understand how to think about the differential there.
Yes. So let me first say, again, what a strong year that we had last year, $108 million in total, $50 million in Q4, a 56% increase quarter-over-quarter. We continue to see very, very strong patient demand, even as we kick off 2026. So there's been no meaningful impact from a competitive standpoint, and we continue to have very broad access for our patients in FCS today.
The work is ongoing. The goal that we have, as I mentioned, is to maximize the value, so the highest price possible, but also provide the broadest access possible when we get to sHTG. So we're having the right conversations today. We're leading the way with payers in those engagements. We did a great job in 2025 to execute that. We're doing the same in 2026. But it will take us a little bit more time before we complete the conversations and our research with the payers so that we come to a final decision on pricing.
And I'll just add to that, Salveen, again, as Kyle mentioned in his prepared remarks, we've had no meaningful impact of a new market entrant on the demand for TRYNGOLZA. The demand for TRYNGOLZA continues to be very, very strong. Patients are doing very well on the medicine and we're seeing reauthorizations over and over and over again. So we're very pleased with the performance of TRYNGOLZA, but we're in that period right now in which we -- we're preparing to transition for the sHTG launch.
And the next question comes from Jason Gerberry with Bank of America.
This is Chi on for Jason. I want to go back to a comment that you made, Kyle. You said you -- obviously, you guys have recently increased the peak revenue for olezarsen to over $2 billion. And I recall is based on higher volume assumption. And today, Kyle, you mentioned you're even more confident in the blockbuster opportunity. Is it more confident in hitting that $2 billion number? Or is it more confident in hitting a potentially higher peak number? What drove the higher confidence? Is it based on any reason research? And is it high assumption on price or volume?
And if I may squeeze in a quick one on the second question. I wanted to ask about ION532, which was licensed to AstraZeneca for APOL1-mediated kidney disease. Curious your thoughts about the market opportunity there, target profile of PS relative to competition? And lastly, when might we see Phase II data?
Yes. On the $2 billion, Chi, we shared this last month, we had these conversations. That $2 billion is really based on the strength of the product profile and the positive Phase III data. In addition to that, we've done extensive prescriber demand research, and that's what drove us to increase to greater than $2 billion. I think what's increasing our confidence is the strong underlying demand trends that we're seeing that I just explained, not only ending last year, but also that are continuing here early in 2026.
And your second question, Chi, I'll take is really best ask for AstraZeneca. It's a program that we've been working on for quite some time. We published on preclinical data for targeting APOL1 for FSG, particularly for people with mutations in the APOL1 gene across kidney disease.
The preclinical data is very strong. The unmet need is very significant. There's a potential to go after patient populations that do not have -- that are not APOL1 carriers if the APOL1 carrier data is strong enough to go in that direction. So it's a significant market opportunity for renal disease.
The decision by AZ to go to Phase II after we licensed it to them was based on day-to-day conducted in Phase I that showed strong target engagement and, of course, with good safety. So they advance it to Phase II. And as for time of data, that's a question for AZ.
And the next question comes from Michael Ulz with Morgan Stanley.
Congratulations on all the progress as well. Maybe just one related to the sHTG filing. Just wondering if you can give us any color on any recent FDA interactions there? And then secondly, has your thinking on the potential for a priority review changed at all recently?
I'll start with the second one and I'll ask Eugene to talk about how things are going. So for priority review, we can't speak for the FDA, but we believe that based on the unmet medical need and the compelling product profile, for olezarsen and sHTG that it deserves priority review designation, but we're in that window, we're in that evaluation window right now. And of course, again, I will remind you, we did receive breakthrough therapy designation. As far as regulatory interactions been on track, right?
So far, so good. It's early days, of course, as you said.
Yes. We're within that window, Mike.
And the next question comes from Luca Issi with RBC Capital.
I don't want to maybe just double down here on this prior review versus standard review. I think in the past, you came across as pretty confident about prior overview, but obviously, you're now guiding assuming a standard review. So just wondering kind of hinting has changed? Or maybe this is just kind of standard conservatism? Like any thoughts there, I'd be much appreciated.
And then maybe on Angelman, Holly, I think when I go on clinicaltrial.gov, I don't see any European sites there for your program, I think, except for the U.K., so versus, I think, your competitor Ultragenyx has many European sites. So is that because the European regulators prefer sham controlled trials? Is that a placebo-controlled trial? Or is that kind of more complex than that? Any thoughts much appreciated.
I'll let Holly address the Angelman in a moment, Luca. But as far as priority review, there's not really much more to add beyond the answer that we described from the previous question. We're in the evaluation period by the FDA. We submitted our supplemental NDA late last year.
We're in that window. We believe the medicine deserves priority review, but we can't speak for the FDA. And the FDA usually takes the time that they need to draw a conclusion and I think we'll just leave it there.
And as far as assuming standard review for guidance, we think that's the responsible thing to do at this stage. As Beth mentioned, we will adjust guidance if we receive priority review, and we'll inform everybody. Holly?
For Angelman, you hit on it. So we have submitted to Europe. We're waiting to hear back from them for that and we need that approval of spending forward with those sites. But we do plan to open up sites in Europe as soon as that approval comes through.
And the next question comes from [indiscernible] with Guggenheim Securities.
This is Moritz on for Debjit. First, a quick follow-up on TRYNGOLZA sHTG pricing. You previously said that you're expecting to price TRYNGOLZA at approximately 20,000 net price should that still be our base case assumption at this point?
And then secondly, a question on the blood brain barrier penetrating platforms. During your Innovation Day, you highlighted both the VHH and the bicycle delivery systems to potentially cross the blood-brain barrier. When can we expect updates on those platforms?
On the pricing question, we're finalizing the payer research. We'll provide those details once we finalize everything and get that out. But 20,000 net is what we had assumed in the greater than $2 billion peak sales revenue number that we've been using. So that's still consistent. We haven't updated that at this point in time.
And as far as the BBB work, it continues to go exceptionally well. I think as we mentioned previously, we selected our first BBB wholly owned molecule that's now in manufacturing. It does utilize the VHH technology. We're making great progress on bicycle as well for BBB overcoming the BBB for CNS diseases. We anticipate initiating IND supporting toxicology studies later this year for the VHH BBB molecule. And although we have not laid out definitive plans yet, I expect you'll get an update in the second half of this year on where we are with our BBB strategy.
And the next question comes from Joseph Stringer with Needham & Company.
A quick one on the GSK partnered HBV program. When can we see functional cure rates from the Phase III program? And what are your GSK's expectations for potential peak sales as a functional cure? And maybe more directly, what net revenue assumptions to Ionis are baked into your projected peak royalty revenues from this partner program.
Yes. Sure. Beth will take the peak sales estimates because I can't keep them all straight from our partners and the revenue what they're projecting. But as far as the presentation, yes, the data is will impress. The data shows it's unprecedented functional cure rates in this massive patient population with very high unmet medical need, millions of people. And GSK plans to present the data at EASL in May, the European Association for the Study of the Liver. And what they've said is that the functional cure rates are clinically meaningful. Beth?
So GSK has talked about peak sales in the about USD 2.5 billion range. We've got a royalties that go from 10% to 12% in addition to the regulatory milestones, many of which we anticipate earnings this year as they move through the regulatory filing acceptance and approval process in multiple countries. So we've baked their peak sales estimate with our royalty tiers 10% to 12% into our overall peak royalties from -- from sorry. We've baked their peak sales and our royalties into our estimated peak royalties, which are about, I think, several billion dollars.
Next question comes from Andy Chen with Wolfe Research.
So I know you talked about Alexander quite a bit today. So just curious how fast that ramp would be or how big the eventual opportunity would be? And if you can compare the opportunity to other rare diseases, such as DAWNZERA or FCS, that would be great.
I'd let Holly just talk about what she's hearing from the community first with Zilganersen. It's really exciting. And that, of course, affects the ramp like what we're hearing. And then Kyle to take on how he anticipates expectations for the launch.
Just quick to remind everybody, last year, we read out our Phase III study, and we hit statistical significant clinical meaningful differences on our primary endpoint, which is a motor functional test. And then we also, in key secondary endpoints had favorable results all favoring Zilganersen. The community, of course, has been overwhelmingly positive. They are excited for the drug. We've opened up an early access program. We already have folks coming into that as well. And so it's very encouraging to see how the response has been from the community that they're just waiting for that medicine.
Yes. And related to the launch, there are approximately 300 people living with Alexander disease in the United States today. We believe that about 50% of those have been identified. There are about a dozen or so major leukodystrophy centers that we'll focus on at the launch. So we can do that with a very modest-sized team.
Our medical affairs group is already out. We have a neurology-focused group that's been working in this area for quite some time, that and on other programs that we have. We'll add some account specialists and then some of our patient education managers to help the reimbursement and transition on to treatment and keep patients taken care of, et cetera, through the process.
We have guided to greater than $100 million in peak revenue for this program. And we'll work on that launch later this year with an expected approval sometime towards the fourth quarter. We'll get the team in place and get launched. And so it will be modest this year and then grow into 2027.
The Zilganersen opportunity, of course, is incredibly meaningful for the patient community. It's going to provide meaningful revenue for Ionis once we get there. But also, it's really important to understand and recognize the strategic value for our neurology wholly owned pipeline Zilganersen is the first coming from Ionis that we're going to deliver to patients, commercialize ourselves. Behind that is our Angelman's program and then we have a rich pipeline of medicines that are wholly owned for neurology, not just for rare diseases, but also from broad disease indications. So it really gets us started.
And the next question comes from Akash Tewari with Jefferies.
This is Manoj on for Akash. Just one from our end. Can you provide some color on your expectations around the upcoming HORIZON Lp(a) Phase III? What could be a commercial viable risk reduction bar in the setting do you consider any potential deeper risk reduction in the other near-term Lp(a) readouts could change the commercial outlook for pelacarsen? And also, can you comment on the current status of your next-gen or like full on Lp(a) targeting asset.
Yes. I'll let Eric talk about the next gen and why we're so excited about its profile. With respect to the HORIZON trial, I mean we remain quite confident in the outcome, recognizing the risk of doing something for the first time, it's Ionis tradition. It's in our DNA to be first.
We've done it so many times and for Lp(a) will be the first to test the Lp(a) CBD hypothesis. But based on the epidemiology based on the conduct of the study, based on the clearance of 2 interim analyses very positively already and based on everything we're seeing from our partner, Novartis, in the trial, we remain confident.
Of course, the risk is that no one's ever done this before. But that's an enormous opportunity as well. The patient -- the mean Lp(a) levels in the study have been reported already. I believe they're the median, I should say, 109 milligrams per deciliter. So it's quite a sick patient population. The vast majority of patients with prior cardiovascular disease, more than 80% have had myocardial infarction.
The rest are stroke or serious peripheral artery disease to be qualified for the study. It's a very well-conducted study. It's going to give the answer to the Lp(a) hypothesis. And as far as competition goes, it's -- pelacarsen has a meaningful first-mover advantage in this massive market opportunity. And we've seen no drug profile out there that we believe will be superior to the Lp(a) lowering effects that we saw -- that we're seeing for pelacarsen. So stay tuned, midyear this year, we'll get an answer.
Eric, what about the follow on?
Yes, sure. Because we believe in the market opportunity and the indication and that lowering LP(a) can give value for patients with cardiovascular disease. Some years ago, we started looking for drugs that extend the dosing interval. And that really was the goal of our program was to extend the interval of dosing. We've been working with siRNA technology for some time now. We recently reported some nice positive data on ION775 with siRNA that extends dosing frequency in -- for lowering ApoC-III and triglycerides in humans.
And we've been making equal better progress on LP(a) with our siRNA platform. Goal is to get it to 6 months extended dosing or perhaps a year depending on how the drugs perform. We're very encouraged by the ION775 performance. And preclinically, the LP(a) siRNA looks better. So hopefully, we can demonstrate that in humans soon.
We have several programs coming forward into the clinic that are offering strong durability twice a year, once a year dosing 775, of course, is the olezarsen follow-on for ApoC-III, we reported data last year in Phase I. It looked excellent, and we're going to be in sHTG patients in Phase II this year. And we believe that, that will be replicated with the pelacarsen follow-on, which is now in IND supporting toxicology studies.
And the last question comes from Jay Olson with Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer has dropped off the line.
That does conclude the question session. So I would like to turn the floor back over to Brett Monia for any closing comments.
Great. Thank you for all the great questions. Thanks for everybody's participation. Obviously, we are incredibly proud of the pivotal year we had in 2025 for Ionis, and we're building on that momentum to set us up for an even more pivotal, more exciting year for Ionis in 2026. We've already achieved a great deal and we're well positioned to achieve a great deal more.
And with that, we'll close the call. Thank you again for your participation. We look forward to providing further updates throughout the year. Goodbye for now.
Thank you. And as much the conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz 2025: $944M, +34% YoY
- Kommerzielle Produkte: $436M (46% des Umsatzes); TRYNGOLZA gesamt $108M in 2025, Q4 TRYNGOLZA $50M (+56% QoQ)
- Partnerschaften: R&D-Kooperationen $508M (54% des Umsatzes); bedeutende Meilensteine bereits verdient
- Bilanz & Ergebnis: 2026 Guidance Revenue $800–825M; Non‑GAAP Betriebsverlust erwartet $500–550M; Cash ~ $1.6B; Ziel Cash‑flow‑Breakeven 2028
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Kommerz‑Transition: Ionis sieht sich als voll integriertes kommerzielles Biotech mit zwei unabhängigen Launches (TRYNGOLZA, DAWNZERA) und weiteren Starts 2026.
- Pipeline‑Fortschritt: Olezarsen: Phase‑III mit bis zu 72% TG‑Reduktion und 85% weniger akuten Pankreatitiserkrankungen; sNDA eingereicht, Breakthrough Designation erhalten, Launch‑Bereitschaft angekündigt.
- Neurologie‑Fokus: Zilganersen (Alexander‑Krankheit) NDA eingereicht; erwartet als erstes unabhängiges Neurologie‑Launch H2/2026; Obudanersen (Angelman) Phase III läuft.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- 2026 Umsatz: $800–825M Guidance (≈+20% auf like‑for‑like Basis ohne einmaligen Lizenzerlös)
- Ergebnisannahmen: Non‑GAAP Betriebsverlust $500–550M; Cash/Investments ≈ $1.6B; Rückzahlung von $433M für Convertible Notes berücksichtigt
- Schlüsselrisiken: Guidance geht von Standard‑FDA‑Review für olezarsen aus (mögliche Verbesserung bei Priority Review); Preis‑ und Erstattungsverhandlungen können TRYNGOLZA‑Umsatz kurzfristig drücken
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Olezarsen Review: Analysten drängten auf Klarheit zu Priority vs Standard Review; Management bleibt vorsichtig und baut Guidance auf Standard‑Review auf.
- Pricing & Payer: Nachfrage nach Preisannahmen für sHTG/TRYNGOLZA (Frühannahme $20k net in Modellszenarien); Management finalisiert Payer‑Forschung und nennt Preis nach Abschluss.
- Launch‑Größen: Zilganersen: ~300 Patienten in den USA, identifiziert ~50%; Peak‑Revenue >$100M prognostiziert; pelacarsen HORIZON‑Outcome (mid‑year) als wichtiger katalytischer Treiber.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Call bestätigt den Übergang zu einem kommerziellen Biotech mit beschleunigter Produktpipeline und mehreren erwarteten Launches 2026. Kurzfristig bleibt der Aktienwert sensitiv gegenüber FDA‑Entscheidungen (olezarsen), Preisverhandlungen und Launch‑execution; langfristig stützen starke Phase‑III‑Daten und diversifizierte Ertragsquellen die Wachstumsprognose.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Great. Good morning, everyone. Welcome. My name is Jess Fye, large-cap biotech analyst at JPMorgan, and we're continuing the 44th Annual Healthcare Conference this morning with Ionis. You're going to hear a presentation from the management team, and then we're going to go into some Q&A. So if you have any questions in the room, just raise your hands, and someone will bring you a microphone or you can submit them online, and I can read them off the iPad up here. So with that out of the way, let me pass it over to Ionis' CEO, Brett Monia.
Thank you, Jess. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining me today for today's presentation. As Jess said, I'm Brett Monia, CEO of Ionis, now entering my seventh year as CEO of the company, and I couldn't be more thrilled to present to you the remarkable progress that we've made over the last couple of, 3 years at Ionis, but more importantly, how the momentum we've built over the last couple of years has set us up for far great success this year and for many years to come to drive substantial accelerating growth, the accelerating value for all Ionis stakeholders. These are my forward-looking statements.
So six years ago, Ionis, when I moved into the CEO role, set out on a new course and the evolution of the company to evolve the company from an R&D organization to a fully integrated commercial stage leading biotechnology company with one objective in doing so in mind, to drive accelerating value for all Ionis stakeholders to drive accelerating growth for all Ionis stakeholders. And I'm proud to say -- very pleased to say that in 2025, we arrived.
In 2025, for the first time in our remarkable history, we launched independently, our first two independent commercial launches, TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA, and I'm also pleased to say that those launches are off to excellent, excellent starts, and I'll touch on that. Those launches as well as our other launches with our partner pipeline are based on groundbreaking science that has driven and created an amazing innovative, deep, broad pipeline of medicines that have supported successful launches because of the fact that they've continuously delivered breakthrough clinical trial results.
And based on all the success we've had over the last 2 to 3 years and what we're set up to achieve this year and for years to come, we are on a clear path to accelerating revenue growth, sustained positive cash flow and substantial value creation for all Ionis stakeholders.
Here are some of our recent achievements over the last 2, 2.5 years or so by the numbers, if you will. Over the last couple of years, we've achieved six positive Phase III data readouts, resulting in 4 approved medicines, TRYNGOLZA, DAWNZERA, WAINUA and QALSODY that have now been successfully launched and they continue to be launched successfully on the market today.
Of those launches, two, as I mentioned, are independent launches by Ionis, our first 2, TRYNGOLZA, for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, and DAWNZERA as a prophylactic treatment for hereditary angioedema. And we're set up to continue to deliver groundbreaking medicines to patients to the market for years to come, as we have created one of the most exciting deepest late-stage pipelines in the industry with 11 medicines in Phase III development today set up for a continuous supply of Phase III readouts and product approvals.
We could not have been more pleased and proud of the on-time approval of DAWNZERA as a novel therapeutic for HAE prophylaxis. DAWNZERA works through a very novel mechanism of action. It is the only -- first and only RNA-targeted medicine for HAE prophylaxis. The opportunity is clear. There's more than 7,000-or-so patients in the United States that suffer from this genetic debilitating disease. We recognize the fact that there are prophylactic treatments on the market today to treat and prevent HAE attacks from occurring. It's also very clear that current treatments are inadequate.
Patients are not satisfied with the availability of prophylactic treatments today, they're not satisfied with the efficacy that they provide, the tolerability they provide and the lack of convenience for patients. DAWNZERA has a compelling product profile that is set up to achieve all of the unmet needs that patients are looking for in HAE prophylaxis, better efficacy, better tolerability and much better convenience.
DAWNZERA was approved on time on August 21 of last year by the FDA in the U.S. and the launch started in September and it's off to a very, very good start. We're seeing prescriptions being written by highly motivated HCPs across all segments of the community, including patients switching from prior prophylactic treatment to patients that are on prophylactic treatment switching to DAWNZERA. Even patients that were never on prophylactic treatment before they manage their disease with on-demand treatments are trying prophylactic treatment for the first time, and they're choosing DAWNZERA and newly diagnosed patients. So the FDA approval and the launch is off to a very good start, and we're looking forward to the European approval this quarter and launch in Europe as well.
Today, our largest therapeutic franchises, the areas we invest in most in discovery, development and commercialization are in cardiometabolic diseases and in neurological diseases. Two areas with immense unmet medical need and 2 areas where Ionis has consistently delivered groundbreaking medicines across Phase III outcomes and to the market, for both rare, severe disease indications as well as highly prevalent disease indications.
What I'm going to do now in the next few moments is to touch on some of the achievements we made from our cardiometabolic franchise and then to move over to our neurological disease franchise before talking a little bit about what this means with respect to the financials for the company.
Olezarsen is a wholly owned medicine that is positioned to be the new standard of care for diseases associated with severely elevated triglycerides, a transformational medicine for patients living with these -- with debilitating symptoms resulting from high triglycerides. We're targeting two patient populations for olezarsen. The first is a rare, severe disease indication called familial chylomicronemia syndrome. There's about 3,000 people in the United States today for this rare genetic disorder.
We have demonstrated -- I'm sorry, these patients suffer from a whole risk -- a whole list of debilitating symptoms, but the biggest risk that they suffer from is a risk of a potentially fatal acute pancreatitis attack. In parallel, we're pursuing a much larger disease indication called severe hypertriglyceridemia, SHTG. This is not rare. More than 3 million people in the United States today suffer from severe hypertriglyceridemia, SHTG, with over 1 million people considered to be high-risk SHTG patients, high risk for a severe potentially fatal acute pancreatitis attack.
So these patients suffer from many of the debilitating symptoms that FCS patients suffer from, but they also, most importantly, suffer from the risk of potentially fatal acute pancreatitis attack, and current treatments for SHTG are grossly, grossly inadequate. TRYNGOLZA, the brand name for olezarsen was approved by the FDA in late 2024 and launched in January of last year for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, based on a compelling product profile regarding efficacy, tolerability and an attractive safety profile.
TRYNGOLZA is the first FDA-approved medicine for FCS. It offers not only great efficacy and tolerability profile, but also the convenience of once per month self-administration using a low-volume simple auto injector.
We're thrilled with the success of the launch to date. We launched in January, as I said last year, we've seen quarter-over-quarter meaningful revenue growth for the launch of TRYNGOLZA in the United States. And for the full year, our growth -- our net revenue for the U.S. launch is -- exceeds $100 million in estimate, over about -- more particularly $105 million in 2025 is our net product U.S. product sales for TRYNGOLZA in 2025. In parallel with the development and launch of TRYNGOLZA for FCS, we were pursuing the much larger indication that I referred to severe hypertriglyceridemia, SHTG. We conducted the largest pivotal program ever conducted in SHTG over 1,000 patients treated with SHTG with olezarsen.
The two pivotal studies are referred to as CORE and CORE 2. The primary endpoint in these studies was fasting triglycerides at 6 months, but we also had very important key secondary endpoints and exploratory endpoints, including the adjudicated event rate of acute pancreatitis at 12 months in this study and other key endpoints such as reducing triglycerides below key risk levels, 500 milligrams per deciliter, which is the risk level of triglycerides associated with acute pancreatitis and even patients driving down the triglycerides into the normal range below 150 milligrams per deciliter.
Last year, in -- at the American Heart Association, we presented groundbreaking results for olezarsen in severe hypertriglyceridemia, where we demonstrated on top of standard of care remarkable reductions in the primary endpoint, triglyceride -- fasting triglyceride levels at 6 months, 72% reduction on top of standard of care of triglycerides at 6 months in our core study. And not only did we see a -- this level of triglyceride reduction in the study, we were also demonstrated that 86% of patients were able -- we were able to drive their triglyceride levels below the risk threshold for acute pancreatitis below 500 milligrams per deciliter. And more than half of patients were able -- we were able to drive their triglyceride levels down into the normal range.
These results were remarkable, but what was even more remarkable were the results that we reported on acute pancreatitis event rate. What we showed is that we were able to reduce the event rate, acute pancreatitis event rate by 85% at 12 months in this study, groundbreaking results that had never been shown before in this patient population.
In addition, based on the potency, based on the efficacy we demonstrated reducing acute pancreatitis attacks, we were able to also show that the number of patients needed to treat to prevent a potentially fatal acute pancreatitis attack in the overall population was 20 patients. And in the high-risk patient population, that is patients that are above 880 milligrams per deciliter or who had a history of acute pancreatitis. The number needed to treat was only 4 patients to prevent a potentially fatal acute pancreatitis attack. And again, I want to emphasize, this was after only 12 months of treatment, groundbreaking, groundbreaking results.
So olezarsen is positioned to be the first -- or the new standard of care treatment for severe hypertriglyceridemia and become Ionis' first wholly owned blockbuster medicine. In addition to the remarkable efficacy that we reported that I just took you through and that we reported last year, olezarsen also demonstrated a highly favorable safety and tolerability profile in the study. It offers the simplicity of once per month self-administration using a simple auto injector. And Ionis has a substantial first-mover advantage to bring this novel mechanism of action to treat SHTG patients to the market.
Our supplemental NDA to follow the FCS indication was filed late last year, and we're expecting to launch in 2026, and we've been granted breakthrough therapy designation. Prior to us unveiling the Phase III data for olezarsen in SHTG, we had guided toward a peak product revenue opportunity of -- to exceed $1 billion. Based on these remarkable results, our Phase III results, we have recently upgraded our guidance to greater than $2 billion in net product revenue for Ionis for olezarsen in SHTG.
Behind olezarsen is a growing wholly owned pipeline for Ionis in cardiometabolic diseases. We actually have a follow-on molecule now that's going to reach Phase II development this year, ION775, that is -- that will move into SHTG patients this year that offers the potential for once per year or twice per year, self-administration using an auto-injector. We're also moving forward with new approaches to target cardiometabolic diseases, including targeting cardiac myocytes directly, through targeted delivery strategies using a novel approach to TfR1 targeting on cardiac myocytes.
In parallel, our partnered pipeline in cardiometabolic disease continues to progress exceptionally well. Examples of this are eplontersen for ATTR cardiomyopathy, a co-development, co-commercialization partnership Ionis -- between Ionis and AstraZeneca with Phase III data in the second half of this year and pelacarsen for Lp(a)-driven cardiovascular disease with Phase III data expected in the first half of this year with our partner Novartis. We also have a targeted delivery strategy in process in Phase I development, targeting cardiac myocytes using our novel approach to TfR1 targeting with our partner, AstraZeneca, that's in, as I said, in Phase I development.
Switching gears to neurology, neurological diseases, an area -- therapeutic area where Ionis leads in RNA-targeted medicines. We have a proven platform and proven capabilities for delivering groundbreaking medicines for neurological diseases. We've done it time and time again. Examples of this are SPINRAZA conceived, discovered, developed by Ionis as the first-ever FDA-approved medicine for spinal muscular atrophy. QALSODY, the first-ever FDA-approved medicine for a genetic form of ALS, and WAINUA for peripheral polyneuropathy due to mutations in the TTR gene.
Right behind these approved medicines is a rich pipeline, one of the richest in the industry in neurological diseases. Today, we have six wholly owned medicines in clinical development for neurological diseases, devastating neurological diseases, including Zilganersen for Alexander disease, ION582 for Angelman syndrome, and we're about to start a Phase I study in Dravet syndrome. And our partnered neurological disease pipeline continues to advance very, very well. Examples of this are salanersen, a new follow-on molecule for SPINRAZA for spinal muscular atrophy using Ionis-discovered medicines that supports once per year dosing for SMA patients, and our tau program with Biogen for Alzheimer's disease, and our Huntington's program with Roche for Huntington's disease.
We are incredibly proud and pleased with the Phase III results that we reported in September of last year for Zilganersen for Alexander disease. Alexander disease is a severe, typically commonly fatal leukodystrophy, in which there are no effective treatment options available today, no disease-modifying treatments available today. We reported unprecedented clinical results for Zilganersen in patients with Alexander disease, the first and only investigational medicine to show a disease-modifying impact, clinically meaningful disease-modifying impact in patients with Alexander disease. We are granted breakthrough therapy designation. This medicine is positioned as, of course, as a first-mover to transform the treatment landscape for families, physicians, patients living with this devastating neurodegenerative disease.
We've recently opened up an expanded access program. The enthusiasm for this program has been very brisk, very strong, and we're looking forward to submitting our NDA this quarter and getting to launch this medicine in the second half of this year.
Right behind Zilganersen is another promising wholly owned medicine for a neurological devastating rare genetic neurological disease, ION582 for Angelman syndrome. Angelman syndrome is a severe neurodevelopmental disease affecting more than 100,000 people with no -- with -- in major geographies with no effective treatment options available today. The unmet need is massive. We reported highly encouraging Phase II data from a Phase II study called HALOS, 1.5 years ago, where we demonstrated consistent and meaningful evidence of clinical improvements across all aspects of clinical function, cognition, communication, motor function.
And last year, we reported new data from a long-term extension from patients that rolled over from HALOS into the long-term extension, demonstrating continued improved benefit in clinical outcomes in patients with Angelman syndrome. We were granted breakthrough therapy designation for this program as well. We initiated the Phase III REVEAL study last year in 2025, and we're expecting to complete enrollment this year with Phase III data in 2027.
So I think it's fair to say that Ionis has been delivering a steady cadence of groundbreaking new medicines to patients to the market over the last 2 to 3 years, and we're anchored by WAINUA, TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA, which I've already covered. And we're well positioned, well positioned to continue a steady cadence of new medicines reaching patients in the market for years to come, including this year, where we're expecting FDA approval and launch for olezarsen in SHTG, Zilganersen for Alexander disease. And based on the positive Phase III data that our partner, GSK, reported last week for bepirovirsen in chronic HBV, we expect that medicine to be approved this year and launched as well. And the beat goes on in 2027, assuming positive Phase III data this year that we're expecting for 3 programs from our partnered pipeline, pelacarsen would be launched for LP(a)-driven cardiovascular disease in 2027, eplontersen for ATTR cardiomyopathy and sefaxersen for IgA nephropathy. And then more medicines to follow, including our Angelman syndrome ION582.
This -- what this means, the steady cadence of medicine is that by the end of this year, Ionis will have launched as a fully integrated commercial stage biotechnology company for independent launches. And by the end of next year from our partner pipeline, 4 key partner launches.
This, of course, is incredibly important for the patient -- for patients, for the medical community. It's also very important for Ionis from a revenue-generating standpoint. This is what the revenue looks like the revenue from our marketed products, planned launches from our near-term product approvals at peak sales.
From the Ionis wholly owned pipeline, Ionis-owned medicines, we anticipate from a -- in a probabilized manner. So not everything has to be successful, the Phase III readouts nor the market success, more than $4 billion in potential annual peak product revenue from our wholly owned pipeline from our partner medicines on royalties alone, more than $2 billion in annual peak royalties, and that doesn't even include substantial milestones, development milestones and commercial milestones and some exceeding more than $6 billion in revenue for the company at peak.
And this supports our commitment for -- to achieve sustained positive cash flow for the company. We're on a clear path to sustain positive cash flow, and we're on track to achieve cash flow breakeven in 2028 with growing positive cash flow to follow. Key drivers of this, of course, are the new product launches that I just took you through, growing royalty revenue. We have, today, a very strong financial foundation to support all the investments we need to make to ensure success for our products on the market.
And, of course, as we've always done, disciplined expense management. So we've made remarkable progress over the last couple of, 3 years. We're poised to remain -- to achieve even greater success, even greater progress this year with a number of key catalysts in 2026. Here are those catalysts by the numbers. We're expecting five Phase III data readouts this year. You can read the medicines there. I've covered -- I've touched on all of them so far. And we have one already accomplished bepirovirsen for chronic HBV; four, NDA submissions; three, commercial launches, including two independent launches, olezarsen for SHTG and Zilganersen for Alexander's disease, and a rich mid-stage pipeline that's going to produce a number of important readouts, any of these Phase II readouts that are positive supports -- will support the program to advance to pivotal Phase III studies. These include our partner program on tau for Alzheimer's disease, our partnered program on Huntington's disease, targeting HTT, and our wholly owned alpha-synuclein program for multiple system atrophy and our Prion disease program.
So to conclude, I'll leave you with this. Some of the key take-home messages. Ionis is leading the way and has built a leading cardiometabolic disease portfolio and neurological disease portfolio that has delivered groundbreaking medicines and will continue to deliver groundbreaking medicines well into the future. This is and will continue to drive accelerating revenue growth supporting our objective to achieve positive -- to achieve cash flow breakeven in 2028 and a clear path to sustained positive cash flow.
And with that, I'll stop there. Thank you very much for your attention.
Great. Thank you. And as a reminder, if you have a question, please raise your hand, or you can send them to me up here on the iPad. So I wanted to start with olezarsen or TRYNGOLZA. And I guess, first, with that sNDA filing now in for SHTG, has it been accepted? Can you speak to whether you're going to get priority review?
We submitted the supplemental NDA just before Christmas. So it's a 60-day process before we'll hear about -- or 30-day process before we'll hear about acceptance. And at that -- and we did request priority review, so we'll hear about it at that time.
Okay. And I guess, what can you share about the TRYNGOLZA launch in FCS so far? Like what are you learning about patient adherence, persistence?
It's overwhelmingly positive. We're hearing so many great stories about patients living with this devastating disease. Their ability to live daily lives without body pain, without going to the hospital for recurrent acute pancreatitis events. We're seeing patient stories that are just incredible. And that is emanating to the health care providers, the physicians that treat these patients, leading to reauthorizations. Physicians finding new patients to treat them as well. It's really a breakthrough for this patient population. Everything has been incredibly positive.
How are you preparing for the launch in SHTG? So how do you think about the initial target population? Should we think about a steady ramp or more rapid uptake? Like could there be a bolus of early adopters?
Yes. So the SHTG launch will be our third -- Ionis' third commercial launch with Alexander's to follow. It's funny. Our first three commercial launches have all been -- will be very unique. Each one will be different. We started FCS, where we were first to the market and patient identification was so critical, and that has been such an important factor in the success we've had in the launch in FCS to date. We've done a great job in identifying patients. And of course, the drug has performed.
Our second launch in DAWNZERA, we came into a market where there are preexisting treatments and that's a switch market. And there, it's a very different strategy, getting patients understand -- physicians understand the opportunity that DAWNZERA offers. And now our third launch, we're moving into a highly prevalent disease indication, right? High -- incredibly high unmet need, millions of people with SHTG. So a new strategy. We're building off the success of FCS and the sentiment by the endocrinologists, the cardiologists, pancreatologists, that have experienced TRYNGOLZA in FCS is resonating incredibly well for the SHTG opportunity.
Physicians are asking when can I put my patient on -- my other patient -- my FCS patient is doing great, and when can I put my other patients on to have SHTG onto olezarsen. They just, of course, have to wait until we get the indication. We're prepared. We'll be prepared for the launch. We'll be prepared for the launch if we achieve priority review, that would be in July. Of course, a standard review will take us to October, November, but where we have built our field team, they're essentially all hired now. They're being trained, ready to go, assuming the prior early approval, and they're being trained on this. And they will be focused on FCS and SHTG education. FCS patients finding SHTG education until we get the label for SHTG. We've hired about 200 individual field force to support the SHTG opportunity, and that's scalable, Jess. If we see that we need to add more or so, we can do so. There's incredible enthusiasm for people wanting to come to Ionis to be part of this story.
So you raised the peak expectation for this product from $1 billion to $2 billion. Curious kind of like what bridges you from 1 to 2? Was that expectations for better volume? Maybe you could commend a higher price, international, U.S., kind of what are the ingredients to double the peak?
Yes. It's based on research we've done with the HCP community, it's volume, it's volume. The enthusiasm for the reduction in acute pancreatitis was so overwhelming that when we did our market research, we did market research before we had the Phase III data. And when we had the Phase III data, then we doubled down on that, of course, to do -- to ask HCPs, physicians, also our payers engagements on what they think about this profile and the enthusiasm just doubled. I mean it was just incredible.
So it's a volume thing. We're expecting physicians to be even more motivated to treat patients that are at high risk, but even patients that are -- that maybe don't have a history of acute pancreatitis that are between 500 and 880, we'll maybe even get some of those patients because of the enthusiasm for the data we presented last year.
If there are a couple of moves just to turn it around the other way, if there are a couple of risks to achieving that new kind of 2 billion peak target, what are the risks?
Risk is a new launch. Launch has always come with some uncertainty. But you asked about a bolus. I could tell you that that unlike those other 2 launches, which are very different patient finding and switching for the other -- our first 2 other launches. Here, there are patients waiting. Physicians are -- many physicians are treating thousands of patients with SHTG already with inadequate treatments, fibrates, omega-3 fatty acids, statins. So they're waiting for something better.
So although I wouldn't call it a bolus, it's going to be a different type of launch. It's going to be faster than for DAWNZERA or for FCS, just because of that. I really -- I have a hard time finding risk associated with that, except for just what's the uncertainty of a new launch at any time, but right now, physicians are very eager to prescribe olezarsen for SHTG, which is -- which I think is going to bode really well for the launch.
And what's the latest thinking on pricing once you get into SHTG and how are you engaging with payers to ensure broad access?
Prior to the Phase III data, we've done extensive engagement with payers and HCPs to understand the enthusiasm for HCPs to prescribe olezarsen for their patients and payer research to understand what the key inflections would be that would limit access, right, to patients or make it more difficult for physicians to prescribe olezarsen for SHTG. We've done a lot of work. And then, we doubled down on that work after we got the data, right, after we got the data. We're working on it now. Obviously, today, we're -- TRYNGOLZA is being -- is at a rare disease price and that price will come down. We provided guidance last year of a net price of $10,000 to $20,000 in the U.S. or $10,000 to $20,000 for SHTG that's where we are still today, but we have a lot of work to do. We're obviously at the high end of that now of that range based on the remarkable data we reported, but we're still doing our work. So stay tuned. And once we come to our conclusion, maybe at approval, we'll share that.
Okay. Maybe switching to WAINUA, eplontersen, how is the commercial uptake going in polyneuropathy? And what are you seeing just in terms of kind of new patient starts versus switches, prescriber mix, stuff like that?
Yes, very good. The launch of WAINUA continues to go very well in hATTR polyneuropathy. We're seeing strong demand for the drug. We're seeing volume, continuous quarter-over-quarter increased volume in patients. We're seeing a good mix, 60-40-or-so commercial to Medicare. We're seeing some switches, but it's almost mostly driven by newly identified patients. We're co-commercializing in the United States with AstraZeneca, and it's a great team effort in patient identification. And it sets us up really well for the second indication. We're looking forward to the much larger indication cardiomyopathy with Phase III data in the second half of this year. And based on the overall success we're having WAINUA in polyneuropathy, I think it bodes really well for a much larger indication.
Patients are really -- it's really resonating well, the ability to self-administer using a simple auto injector, the profile, the efficacy is remarkable. And we think that that's going to translate and exponentially -- at an exponential level in the much larger cardiomyopathy indication.
So when that cardiomyopathy data reads out, what kind of represents a win -- and what would the home run data for cardio transform look like?
As you know, this is the largest study by far, never conducted an ATTR cardiomyopathy more than 1,400 patients with data in the second half of this year. It sets us up to have the richest data set across all endpoints that we're looking at in this study. A win is to hit the primary endpoint composite of cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular hospitalizations, high statistical significance, of course, is a big win. This is a growing market. We can't wait to get to the market. AstraZeneca has estimated this product to be a $5 billion-plus peak market opportunity for this medicine alone, but on the trial design, that's a win, strong, strong positive primary endpoint data.
However, because of the size of the study and the demographics of our study, where we have a good portion of patients on stabilizers, we're going to have the richest data set in combination between a silencer and a stabilizer that's ever been generated to date. And that's really important because despite the success silencers are having initially in the cardiomyopathy market, and we'll have even greater success, we firmly believe that in the market, we believed in silencer class over to stabilizer class, stabilizer is still the standard of care.
So being able to explain to payers and physicians that you're going to get an added benefit on top of a stable or is incredibly important. We're in position to have the richest data set there. Last year, and because we have so many patients in combination usage, last year, we elevated combination -- the combination subgroup to a key secondary endpoint in our statistical hierarchical plan. So we just -- we want to make sure we get the benefit of that if we do hit stat sig, although really a win is just strong favorable trends showing combination usage would benefit, and that would be for the first time anyone ever showed that.
If you do hit statistical significance in the combo subgroup? Do you think eplontersen gets unique credit for that and the physicians or the market doesn't just read that across to your competition anyway?
What it will mean is absolute upside to WAINUA for eplontersen for cardiomyopathy, we believe. Whether that floats all boats or not, it's perfectly fine with us. This is a growing market, estimated by some to exceed $20 billion. We believe in the silencer class. There's room for multiple. There's really two and that are coming, so that would be fine if that was tailwinds to our competitor program. It's we're going to do extremely well, and we'll be the ones with the data in the pocket.
Okay. And just when you say rich data set, does that mean that you kind of anticipate statistical significance in this subgroup? What is -- like what does richest data set mean?
The richest data set means that based on the size of the study and the percentage, the number of patients in combo use, the number of patients in monotherapy offers the opportunity to have the most meaningful, whether it's stat sig or not, the most meaningful data to convince people that combination usage adds benefit and just look at what our monotherapy does and potentially even look at -- be able to compare, not stat sig, but be able to look at monotherapy versus combination in a single study, because we are going to have more patients in our monotherapy group, in our combination group than any Phase III study in its entirety that's ever been done before. In addition, we are doing -- and we're -- this is unique to our cardio transform study, 2 very, very sizable imaging studies, MRI and scintigraphy, looking at heart's function, heart performance, heart structure, amyloid burden in the heart and that too will be analyzed by subgroups, right? So when I say rich, I mean biomarkers, I mean, heart function structure and, of course, the harder endpoints on mortality and hospitalizations.
Okay. Maybe a similar question, but for pelacarsen, which also has Phase III data reading out. What's kind of a win for that data set versus kind of the home run scenario?
Stat sig on the primary endpoint of cardiovascular mortality and hospitalizations. Lp(a) represents an opportunity in cardiovascular disease that affects 8 million to 10 million people globally with no effective treatment options available for this independent risk factor. Pelacarsen is positioned to get the vast majority of patients below the threshold associated with Lp(a) cardiovascular disease, first to market by 1.5 years, 2 years if this Phase III study is successful.
Cardiovascular outcome trials are typically granted, considered to be highly successful if they achieve 10%, 15% positive cardiovascular outcomes. The study is powered for a 20% relative risk reduction in the overall population and 25% overall risk reduction in a subgroup of patients that have super high levels of Lp(a) above 90 milligrams per deciliter. But because there's such a high unmet medical need, in this population with no effective treatment options. I would say that even 10%, 15% would be considered a big win. I'm sure that Novartis would go to the market, it will be their decision, but they would go for approval based on even that outcome.
Okay. Great. We're perfectly out of time, so we'll stop there. Thank you.
Thank you, Jess.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Event-Typ: Präsentation auf einer Healthcare‑Konferenz (JPMorgan) mit Q&A.
- Kernaussage: Ionis stellt sich als voll integriertes kommerzielles Biotech‑Unternehmen dar: zwei eigene Produkt‑Launches 2025, breite Phase‑III‑Pipeline und Ziel, durch Produktstarts und Royalties beschleunigtes Wachstum und positiven Cashflow zu erreichen.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Kommerzielle Expansion: Erste unabhängige Launches (TRYNGOLZA, DAWNZERA); für SHTG‑Launch ~200 Außendienstkräfte eingestellt, skalierbares Feld‑Team.
- Schwerpunktbereiche: Fokus auf Kardiometabolik und Neurologie; 11 Programme in Phase III, mehrere Partner‑Readouts (AstraZeneca, Novartis, GSK).
- Finanzplanung: Olezarsen‑Peak hochgestuft, erwartete kombinierte Peak‑Umsatz‑ + Royalty‑Potenziale im mehrmilliardigen Bereich; Ziel Cash‑Breakeven 2028.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- sNDA & Review: Supplemental NDA für olezarsen (SHTG) kurz vor Weihnachten eingereicht; Ionis hat Priority‑Review beantragt, Entscheid über Annahme gemäß FDA‑Fristen steht an.
- Phase‑III‑Daten: Olezarsen: −72% Triglyceride (6M), 85% Reduktion akuter Pankreatitis‑Ereignisse (12M); NNT gesamt 20, bei Hochrisiko 4.
- Markt‑Pace: TRYNGOLZA US‑Nettoerlöse ~$105M (2025); CEO erwartet Zulassungen/Launches für Olezarsen und Zilganersen in 2026.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- sNDA‑Timing: Nachfrage zur FDA‑Annahme/Review‑Kategorie; Management: 30‑/60‑Tage‑Fristen laufen, Priority angefragt.
- Launch‑Dynamik: Diskussion über Startverlauf SHTG (schnelleres Uptake‑Pattern möglich), Grösse der adressierbaren Patientenpopulation und Field‑Team‑Vorbereitung.
- Preis & Erstattung: Preisrahmen US‑Netto weiterhin $10k–$20k für SHTG; Payer‑Engagements laufen, Zugang und Restriktionen als Hauptrisiko für Umsatzwachstum.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bilanz: Präsentation bestätigt die Transition zu einem kommerziellen Biotech mit starken Phase‑III‑Katalysatoren; olezarsen‑Daten begründen deutlich höhere Umsatzprognose, aber Marktzugang, Preisbildung und Launch‑execution bleiben die Hauptunsicherheiten auf dem Weg zur Cash‑Breakeven‑Zielsetzung 2028.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Jefferies London Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Good afternoon. It's hard to check sometimes. Good afternoon, everyone. My name is Akash Tewari. I'm a pharma and biotech analyst here at Jefferies. This is day 2 of our London Healthcare Conference. I have the pleasure of hosting Ionis. Brett, why don't I hand it off to you to give some intro remarks, and then we'll get started.
Happy to. Good afternoon, everybody. Thanks for joining. Thank you, Akash. It's great to be here. So a brief introduction on Ionis. Of course, Ionis is a genetic medicines company focused on targeting RNA for therapeutics, a well-established company.
We've had a remarkable year this year. We've been working towards this year for the last several years as we built Ionis into a fully integrated commercial stage biotechnology company, proud to say that this year we launched our first 2 medicines independently in the U.S. The approval of WAINUA -- I'm sorry, the approval of TRYNGOLZA for FCS, the first ever FDA-approved medicine for the severe genetic disease was approved in December of last year, and we launched it this year.
And then in August of this year, our second independent launch was based on the approval of DAWNZERA as a prophylactic treatment for hereditary angioedema. I'm thrilled to say that both launches are off to excellent starts. The pipeline is also delivering remarkably well.
At the American Heart Association just 2 weeks ago, we announced detailed data from our Phase III program called CORE and CORE 2 for severe hypertriglyceridemia, a disease that's caused by severely elevated triglycerides that affects millions of people in the United States alone. Groundbreaking results in which we not only demonstrated substantial unprecedented reductions in triglycerides, also unprecedented first time ever shown remarkable reductions in acute pancreatitis, which is the key aspect of this disease that affects these patients the most. It can be fatal.
We also, in September, announced positive Phase III data for a wholly owned neurology drug for Alexander disease, a severe neurodegenerative disease that we're planning to receive approval for next year as well as for TRYNGOLZA for severe hypertriglyceridemia.
As I said, Akash, this is a remarkable year for the company, a real breakthrough year, but it sets up for an even more exciting year for next year, which we're expecting 5 Phase III readouts next year from our deep pipeline. We're expecting 2 FDA approvals, potentially 3, we're waiting for the third one to read out in chronic HBV. But as I said, we already have the Phase III data for the other 2. So we're in great shape, and we're looking forward to the future, a great year this year and next year is set up to be even more remarkable.
Understood. The opening panel actually had at the conference, I had the pleasure of hosting John at Alnylam, then he's at Coursera. And it's kind of interesting. In his next attempt, he's CEO of another company, they're going after a long-acting siRNA that's targeting blood pressure and then a known target like PCSK9, running a primary prevention study first and then going even maybe for a direct-to-consumer like market.
And like some of these themes, you see this with like the Lilly GLP-1 deal, cardiovascular disease needs to shift, having better compliance is not a nice to have, it's kind of a must-have, especially when you think about it for payers, and I think you guys -- and I know we'll talk about some of the specific stuff, but this is kind of interesting to me.
You guys have a way to stratify cardiovascular disease with a first product and then a backup in a way that I don't think a lot of other companies do. I want you to kind of think about that with sHTG, right? Because we think, okay, FCS is a smaller opportunity, sHTG is a bigger opportunity. But there's also this idea of why is it okay if I have triglycerides that are at 300 or 500, right? When you think about where sHTG is headed 5, 10 years down the line because you have backup products there as well, why is Ionis in a unique position?
We are in a unique position, Akash. First of all, this is an enormous unmet need. As I said, millions of people with severe hypertriglyceridemia that are at risk of -- that suffer from all kinds of symptoms, but most notably a potentially fatal acute pancreatitis attack due to severely elevated triglycerides. And it's a known disease.
These patients are already being treated by physicians. So it's recognized. They're already on fibrates and fish oils and statins and so on, but they can't get their triglycerides even close to target. So this is an enormous opportunity first time out of the gate. We're going to focus on the most severely at-risk patient population first in that segment of millions of people I already mentioned, maybe up to 1 million that are -- have already had a history of acute pancreatitis or at very high levels, 80 and above, who are at very high risk for an acute pancreatitis attack.
Many of those -- most of those patients have already had an AP attack. To your point, then moving forward to that naive patient population, if you will, with severely elevated triglycerides to prevent that first attack from happening. That's what you would call primary care, if you will, not primary care, but preventive medicine. And we're certainly going to be targeting that population, too, which expands the scope of the market opportunity for us.
In addition, our platform technology continues to advance forward at remarkable speed. We have a molecule now in Phase I testing. It will be in Phase II development next year for severe hypertriglyceridemia. That's allowing us to go from a very convenient once per month self-administered treatment, which olezarsen is today, to twice a year, self-administration, maybe once per year, self-administration beyond that.
So that's life cycle management there, allowing us to make the medicine even more convenient for patients. After that, then there's a whole another population of patients that suffer from high triglycerides, which I think is really where you're driving to, which is that patient population that is mildly elevated and at high risk for cardiovascular disease. That's not severe hypertriglyceridemia, 500 and above, that's 150 to 500 who are particularly at risk due to atherosclerosis due to cardiovascular disease. We're looking at that population now.
We're trying to -- we are figuring out what's the best approach to tackling that disease indication, whether it be olezarsen, whether it be the follow-on molecule or some other approach to managing triglycerides. That's coming. Stay tuned for that. But right now, we have several irons in the fire, and we're going to take full advantage of our opportunity to be first to market.
Right. And maybe just one more on this because, again, I think this long-term approach doesn't get talked about enough. The advent of combination therapy, I mean, we're seeing this across I&I. I think we're going to start seeing this right, like why just Lp(a), why just LDL, a polypill makes sense but if you're not adherent again, that's the problem.
What optionality does the Ionis team have with these yearly next-gen siRNA treatments to kind of combine multiple targets and use that as your approach to target, let's say, the 500 -- the 100 to 500 elevated triglyceride population. Should we be thinking about that?
Absolutely. We have full rein, full capabilities and the ability without anything tying us down to pursue combination therapy. You kind of gleaned into it. I mean, one of the things we're thinking about for that mildly elevated 150 to 500 is a combination approach, looking at a drug that can lower triglycerides and some other risk factor.
Our medicines are very low volume, very easy to work with, formulated simple saline solution. The ability to have a fixed-dose combination once per month or once every 6 months or once a year is definitely in our target abilities, and that's exactly what we're thinking there.
You could also think about combinations with Lp(a) as well with an APOC3 inhibitor or a PCSK9 inhibitor or something like that. All that is on the table for Ionis. Another example of that is the work we're doing with AstraZeneca, looking at the ability to combine a silencer for TTR cardiomyopathy with a depleter that depletes amyloid out of the cardiac tissue. That work is in process, and we're looking to get something started in the clinic shortly.
Understood. Actually, maybe that's an interesting bridge to TTR. I know we were talking about this last year. One of the things you reminded me, you were like, gosh, we still have to kind of meet with AstraZeneca, figure out where the therapeutic window is. And to be clear, there's some safety issues with the depleter.
So you start thinking about what populations this makes the most sense in. I'm sure AstraZeneca generate even more internal data with that kind of neuroimmune asset. When you think about where you can get this paradigm of, let's say, short-acting depletion, profound proBNP reduction and then switch to a silencer for kind of maintenance therapy. Are we thinking about this or like severe polyneuropathy, severe ATTR patients? Or in fact, maybe this could be a full switch opportunity where really that's the paradigm. It's not about stabilizers and silencers, but it actually might go into a depleter silencer paradigm.
Yes. So we're still working out the details. So I can't provide a lot of details on what we're thinking about what a clinical trial design would look like. But I can tell you that we're focused on cardiomyopathy, not the polyneuropathy indication out of the gate, and we think that the ability of a depleter to go in together with a silencer that blocks the production of a disease-causing protein TTR with a depleter that helps clear the amyloid from the heart rapidly is a great approach to go out of the gate, and then you could back off on the depleter because you've now cleared the amyloid and you're not going to get a lot more amyloid in the heart because you block the -- you silence the production of TTR. So the indication will be in cardiomyopathy to get out of the gate. And -- but how exactly what doses and all that is we're still working through.
Understood. And maybe just like I cover argenx. So I think I've seen kind of real-time Medicare Part D revised environment, you have a subcu version of that drug, you have an IV version of that drug. Theoretically, there is a strong financial incentive for doctors to give an IV, but we're seeing 75% of new patient starts go to the prefilled syringe for VYVGART.
But again, that's maybe orphan. This is more specialty cardiovascular. How do you think about, again, the narrative that Part B is more preferred versus the reality that your work -- your team is doing in terms of having a Part D product for ATTR on the ground?
So that's not been our experience that Part B is preferred over Part D. What our experience has been is that there are centers and there are physicians that may prefer prescribing a Part B drug for the reasons we all know, personal incentives or financial incentives, those sorts of things. Maybe some patients prefer seeing a health care provider periodically as opposed to self-administering, but there's a lot of patients.
There's a lot of physicians that don't want the headache of having to set up appointments with their patients when they're very busy to come in, get an administered product that they can actually self-administer themselves, and certainly, our experience has been a lot of patients prefer the independence of being able to self-administer using an auto-injector themselves at any time, whether they're at work, on vacation, at home, to be able to do that.
So we -- our experience has been, there's plenty of room for both. We like the ability for self-administration. We think there's -- that's a huge opportunity. And also, when you get into these larger patient populations like in TTR cardiomyopathy, we're no longer only in centers of excellence where these physicians are -- have the capabilities, the infrastructure to be able to handle Part B types of drugs.
We're getting out now into the communities where you have a physician seeing just 2 or 3 patients or 4 or 5 patients or that kind of thing, and they don't have the infrastructure to handle that kind of thing. So the ability to self-administer is going to -- is resonating really well, and we think it's going to do really well.
Understood. Now you may have, along with your partner, AstraZeneca, data back half of next year, maybe sooner, maybe later, and I think when you talk to investors, especially your like the combo, is it going to be static or not? There was kind of a binary view of looking at it.
And to be fair, AstraZeneca has revised their studies to add endpoints specifically looking at the combination. And if you ask them, they say, our event rates are tracking as expected. But Brett, like should we be thinking about this as binary as either you're showing a static benefit on top of a stabilizer or not?
Or are there other endpoints, other ways that you've powered this trial where you feel like you can go to payers and actually have an incremental advantage over the Alnylam program?
Well, let me first start by saying that this is a market that the prevalence is not well understood still today. This is a growth market. We're seeing it with the stabilizers and the silencers growing this market, and we don't know where the ceiling is.
We believe that eplontersen, which we're going to have Phase III data in the second half of next year, the largest study ever conducted in TTR cardiomyopathy by far, is going to have the richest data set in subsets as well as the primary, of course, which is highly derisked now with the first silencer showing very nice positive outcome in their outcome trial and very good uptake on the market.
We think we're going to do really well. In addition to the fact that we have the ability to self-administer -- patients have the ability to self-administer and we have the richest data set, we're going to have a lot of great data in subgroups as well. You highlighted the combination subgroup, which has been elevated in our final statistical analysis plan to a key secondary endpoint because our confidence has grown that we should -- we have the potential to see meaningful benefit there.
And obviously, if it's elevated in the secondary, we're hopeful that it could hit stat sig. I would say that strong trends are actually going to be very helpful too, even if we don't hit the statistical significance in combination, this will be the only ones to have -- potentially have a meaningful demonstration of benefit on hard endpoints like mortality, other endpoints like hospitalizations, biomarkers, also imaging.
We have -- are the only ones in our study having the most robust imaging MRI and scintigraphy data, which we're going to be able to look at amyloid burden in the heart and heart function as monotherapy in combination usage. At the end of the day, we believe that the silencers will do very well in frontline therapy.
We'll do very well in all the patients that progress on stabilizers to go over to a new mechanism, a silencer, 100% of patients eventually progress on stabilizers and combination usage, and certainly, if you have data that's convincing, stat sig or not, convincing that combination usage is going to benefit patients, physicians are going to be even more enthusiastic to combine them.
Okay. There's a provocative -- like when I looked at the HELIOS-B data and my team looked at it, I wouldn't characterize that as a strong trend, to be honest, right? Like a, it didn't -- it wasn't stat sig, but it wasn't trending in a really profound direction either.
I think there's a perception in your drugs in terms of target knockdown are largely similar. So I think the kind of question I'd ask you is, well, what would lead in terms of your trial design, not just powering because trend would be, again, directionally the shape of the curve, that's not just a powering dynamic, where the separation in combination would look different to what we saw with HELIOS-B?
It's numbers, game, that with the -- they had a relatively small study, especially when you start breaking down 700 or so patients down into subgroups where it's -- you're just going to get more variability, you're going to get -- the separation curve are going to be less convincing. Our study is more than 1,400, more than double the size of the study.
So we're going to have the best data in combination, potentially be able to show separation faster. Certainly, the more patients you have, the more power you have, the more -- the greater the opportunity for statistical significant in all your endpoints, whether it be the mortality Kaplan-Meier curves or the composite hospitalizations plus mortality, you're going to have the ability to show stat sig in situations where it's less clear with smaller studies.
But we have the ability to -- we're well positioned to be able to be the only ones to show meaningful benefit in combination usage, but we'll see. At the end of the day, we believe we have a great medicine for this really large market opportunity, and the neuropathy launch is going really well, and we think that's going to resonate really well and translate to cardiomyopathy as well.
Understood. Again, a topic I think that doesn't always come up, and I think it is incredibly important, yearly SPINRAZA. And again, it's about advances in chemistry that your team has made that, again, I don't think we talk about enough.
First of all, can you frame that readout for us? When are we going to get a pivotal data release? And number two, when we think about right now, the trajectory of SPINRAZA, it's a meaningful product. It's in decline or at least stabilizing decline, let's put it that way.
But SMA is a mature market. I can't help but think if a yearly SPINRAZA product did get to the market and you'd have been able to have similar or maybe even better efficacy, you could see that curve go from this to going back into a growth market, what's the framework we should be thinking about for that readout? Could we actually see this return to growth?
We're very proud of the fact that we discovered and developed and got approved the first ever FDA-approved medicine for spinal muscular atrophy. SPINRAZA is still performing as a blockbuster despite emerging competition that has come forward with one single advantage, convenience.
The efficacy of SPINRAZA is second to none for SMA, but it's administered every 4 months intrathecally, but its efficacy, like I said, is second to none. So we've dealt with the convenience issue by focusing on Ionis chemistry that can allow us to get to once per year dosing intrathecally.
We delivered that medicine, licensed it to Biogen. Biogen did the Phase II study and the data supported once per year dosing and not just the convenience, but also evidence of even deeper, better efficacy based on neurofilament light chain reductions in that study.
Based on that data, they launched -- they're going to launch into a Phase III study in the first half of next year. Open-label study, looking -- a pivotal study to get once per year dosing on the market, which we think based on the convenience and potentially even greater efficacy, we'll have the opportunity to reemerge as the #1 choice and go back to growth for the franchise overall for SMA.
And just remind us, what are the economic terms of your next-gen SPINRAZA versus the current compound?
Yes, significantly more attractive to Ionis. Royalties in the mid-20% range. Today, they're in the mid-teens.
Okay. Understood. As we think about the sHTG launch and I know your team is doing work in terms of stratifying patients who to go after, what are your call points? Let's do a couple of things. A, post the data that -- the full data that came out, what's the feedback you're hearing from providers in terms of their kind of urgency to get patients on your medication? And then number two, touch a bit about the free fraction increase, and are there any concerns about that on the doctor side?
Yes. Let me start by saying -- by just highlighting the fact that the FCS, familial chylomicronemia syndrome launch is off to a great start. It's doing very well, and the physicians that treat FCS patients, this is a severely elevated triglyceride disease as well, are already asking when can they put their patients that have severe hypertriglyceridemia, sHTG on TRYNGOLZA. It's not approved for that yet.
We announced the Phase III data, and we're looking at approval next year in the second half of next year. The feedback we've gotten from physicians that manage these patients, cardiologists, lipid specialists, endocrinologists has been congratulations, congratulations. This is breakthrough groundbreaking results. When can I get, I'm so excited about treating my patients because they're already treating many of these patients. Hundreds of thousands are already on fibrates and omega-3s, and they can't even get near goal on their triglycerides, and they can't wait to get to olezarsen for severe hypertriglyceridemia.
So the efficacy was remarkable, 85% reduction in acute pancreatitis attacks, normalization of triglycerides in more than 50% of cases and so on, excellent safety. There are more severe adverse events in the placebo group than in the treatment group. AEs overall were well balanced. We saw a small increase that was dose dependent.
We have 2 doses, 50 and 80 milligrams, both were highly efficacious, small like a 2.5% increase at 50 milligrams and slightly more at 80 milligrams with no clinical sequelae. No correlation with any other things aspects that would cause concern about a safety issue. It's on target, Akash. We're massively lowering triglycerides to get these patients on a harm way for acute pancreatitis.
One of the mechanisms and -- one mechanism is metabolism. The other mechanism is clearance through the liver. There's a small increase in liver fat because of that, and we think that it's inconsequential, and even with long-term treatment, and we're beginning to see it in the open-label extension that patients are stabilizing or even clearing the liver. The liver just -- we'll be able to manage it. It's not a concern.
Last question on this. In terms of fibrates, look, I think there's emerging data that fibrates may not actually be a good medication for patients with high triglycerides, and we start thinking about where you could get put on to guidelines and how that paradigm will start to shift.
A, can you talk about where you expect to be put on guidelines? And b, are you hearing feedback that perhaps fibrates may actually be removed or at least demoted in terms of where they are in the treatment paradigm?
Yes. This was a key question that we had with several advisory teams, advisory panels at the American Heart Association. Uniformly, they believe that our approach will become part of guidelines for managing patients with severely elevated triglycerides. Now guidelines take time to change. They will be.
Honestly, Akash, I have not heard that fibrates would be removed from that because they are in the guidelines now, fibrates as well as omega-3 fish oil, omega-3 fatty acids to treat sHTG. I have not heard about fibrates being removed, but certainly, consistently, we've heard that our medicine, our mechanism of action is in the guidelines for the future for the treatment of severe hypertriglyceridemia, which is pretty remarkable considering there are more than 3 million people in the United States alone with sHTG.
Understood. Let's wrap it up there. Thank you so much. Always. I really appreciate it.
Thanks, Akash.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Jefferies London Healthcare Conference 2025
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Zentrale Aussage: Ionis positioniert sich als voll integriertes Genmed-Unternehmen mit zwei unabhängigen US-Starts und mehreren bevorstehenden Phase‑III‑Lesungen; Ziel: First‑to‑market‑Führerschaft bei schweren Triglyceridstörungen und weitergehende Indikationen.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Kommerzielle Starts: Unabhängige Markteinführungen von TRYNGOLZA (Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome, FCS) und DAWNZERA (hereditäres Angioödem) laufen „stark“ an.
- Pipelinefokus: Olezarsen für severe Hypertriglyceridämie (sHTG) mit Phase‑III‑Ergebnissen (CORE/CORE2) zeigt starke Triglycerid‑Reduktionen und Reduktion akuter Pankreatitis‑Ereignisse.
- Life‑Cycle & Kombinationsoptionen: Nächste Generation (siRNA/Chemie) zielt auf längere Dosierungsintervalle (halbjährlich/jährlich) und fixe Kombinationen (z.B. APOC3 + Lp(a)/PCSK9) zur Ausweitung auf 150–500 mg/dl Population.
🔎 Neue Informationen
- Phase‑III‑Daten: CORE/CORE2 meldeten nach Managementangaben erstmalig signifikante Verringerung akuter Pankreatitis‑Ereignisse; Olezarsen normalisierte Triglyceride >50% und zeigte Dosisabhängige, aber klinisch unproblematische Nebenwirkungs‑Signale.
- SPINRAZA‑NextGen: Biogen plant Phase‑III‑Pivotal für jährliche Dosierung; Lizenzbedingungen: Royalties „mittlere 20%“ statt mittlere Teens.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Marktsegmentierung: Diskussion über Priorisierung: zuerst sehr gefährdete sHTG‑Patienten (Post‑AP oder TG>800) dann präventive 150–500mg/dl‑Population; Management betont schrittweises Roll‑out.
- Kombinationstherapien: Analysten fragten zu Design/Powering für Kombinationsnachweise (z.B. mit Silencern/Stabilisatoren bei ATTR); Management verweist auf größeres eplontersen‑Studienvolumen (>1.400 Patienten) zur robusteren Subgruppenanalyse.
- Sicherheit/Lipid‑Effekte: Nachfrage zur Leberfett‑Zunahme und „free fraction“; Antwort: leichte, dosisabhängige Zunahme ohne klinische Folgen, Langzeitdaten zeigen Stabilisierung/Verbesserung im OLE (Open‑Label‑Extension).
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Vortrag bestätigt beschleunigte Kommerzialisierung und mehrere potenzielle Zulassungen; Kernrisiken bleiben Dateninterpretation in Subgruppen, Langzeit‑Sicherheit (Leberfett) und Preis/Erstattungspositionierung für breitere Populationen.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Stifel 2025 Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Good morning. It's my pleasure to be moderating this chat with the Ionis team. With me is Beth Hougen, CFO; and Kyle Jenne, Chief Global Product Strategy Officer. I thought you were Chief Commercial Officer. Is this a slightly different title?
No, this is this right title. I actually have a Chief Commercial Officer that reports in to me.
Okay. Interesting. Okay. Cool. I was thinking you was just like Head of Commercial. But we'll have a lot to talk about and go through some specific programs, but maybe we can start, Beth, if you want to just give a quick update and set the stage, sound good. Thank you.
Sure. Absolutely. Good morning. Thank you for having us. We're thrilled to be here. It has been a year for Ionis, full of some really important accomplishments from commercial execution through the pipeline, data, Phase III data. And so we're really excited to be sitting here today.
We've got TRYNGOLZA on the market now. It was approved in December of last year for FCS. And it's -- frankly, it's been beating expectations throughout the entire year. Every quarter, we've been raising our expectations. Our guidance now is $85 million to $95 million for the full year, and we couldn't be more thrilled with the commercial execution. The team has been doing a great job with that.
And then very recently, in August, we had an on-time approval for DAWNZERA, our second independent launch, and that's for HAE. That drug is now on the market. It's early days, but we're seeing a lot of excitement from the community, from the physicians that treat these patients and these -- and the patients as well. Quickly got the drug into channel, got patients on their medications and the enthusiasm continues to build. So we're looking forward to that in the coming days.
And then most recently, we had 2 Phase 3 data readouts. Importantly, we had the CORE and CORE2 data readout for olezarsen, which is the TRYNGOLZA for sHTG, the much broader patient population. And those data were just incredibly impressive. So we're really excited about moving that drug to the market, potential $1 billion opportunity.
And then shortly after that, in September, we also had Phase 3 data that was impressive for Zilganersen for Alexander disease. It's an ultra-rare neurological disease, often fatal and frequently seen in children as well as sometimes in adults. And that data was really impressive. We were able to see a change in motor function for these patients that is really unprecedented, combined with really good safety and tolerability profile. So we're looking forward to bringing that one to the market next year as well.
So as you think about commercially, we have 2 independent launches underway right now, 2 potentially next year. Our mid-stage and earlier-stage pipeline continues to deliver as well. So we're looking forward to more data over the course of next year from that. And our partnered programs are moving along really well with at least 4, maybe 5 Phase 3 data readouts next year.
All of that underpinned by a very healthy balance sheet, strong financial position and profile. So it puts us really in a great position to continue to execute with excellence.
Awesome. Great. Congrats on all the progress. Thank you -- as it relates to TRYNGOLZA or olezarsen, so I think on the -- on the efficacy side, I feel like it's almost uncontroversial, like I don't really know what to ask. And I think on the investor side, the 2 things people have been asking about are just some of the safety updates on the margin and then also commercial positioning.
So maybe to start with safety. The only 2 things that I think came out of the full data were questions around liver enzymes and could that lead to some sort of monitoring and then also liver fat. Is there anything you can say about each of those? And what is your sort of base case expectation on how these might be managed in the real world?
Yes. Happy to talk about that. We love talking about olezarsen. As you know, we just came from New Orleans and where we presented the Phase 3 data at AHA. It was extremely well received, to your point. So let me maybe just step back and talk about the efficacy first so that we can put really the Phase 3 data in context for folks. We saw substantial and sustained very rapid reductions in triglycerides up to 72% placebo adjusted. That led to an 85% reduction in acute pancreatitis. That's what these patients really suffer from.
The acute pancreatitis that could land them in the ICU for a week or 2 or more multiple times, it creates tremendous risk for them going forward because as you have one event, you could have multiple events, your increased risk for multiple events. And acute pancreatitis can be fatal. So it's a very serious disease, and we were able to reduce the risk of that by 85%.
Let me tell you 2 numbers that really resonate with the physicians we've talked to. First is the number needed to treat for the overall patient population that we studied, it was 20 in 1 year. That is an impressive statistic. Usually in cardiovascular outcome trials, you would see significantly higher numbers over a 5-year or 6-year period. So this was really impressive. And in the very severe patients, the ones who are at highest risk, that number dropped to 4. So again, in a year. So very, very impressive efficacy data.
So that's, I think, important as we think about the safety observations or the lab observations that you were mentioning. As it pertains to ALTs and ASTs, there were slight increases, but no clinical sequelae whatsoever. So no correlation with any clinical issues whatsoever for these patients.
And on the liver fat, similar thing, slight increases and no clinical sequelae, no concerns. The experts that we've talked to are not at all concerned about it, and the open-label extension study is continuing. So we think the overall profile for this drug is extremely positive and leads us to having tremendous confidence in at least $1 billion opportunity for this drug.
Yes. Let me jump in on the commercial side. I think it's -- first, on the FCS front, the launch has gone exceptionally well. The broad label that TRYNGOLZA has today for FCS patients that can be either clinically or genetically confirmed in order to get the product reimbursed and get these patients treated has been very well received by the HCP community.
We are currently targeting about 3,000 of the highest sHTG prescribers in the United States. These are HCPs that are using standard of care treatments, fish oils, fibrates and other therapies in order to try to reduce triglycerides in this patient population with sHTG.
Today, on label, we are out selling TRYNGOLZA and we're narrowing that population down to the FCS patient population. Very, very encouraging in terms of the conversations that we're having with HCPs around the need to treat, the willingness to treat, the understanding of acute pancreatitis, the risk that these patients are under, the fact that they don't want the first event ever to happen, and they really want to prevent these patients from getting worse and having an event and ending up in the hospital with a potentially fatal event of acute pancreatitis. So very well understood in this HCP population that's treating the highest number of sHTG patients.
From a revenue standpoint, we've done very well quarter-over-quarter, $57 million through the end of September with our FCS indication. Q4, we anticipate continuing to find additional newly diagnosed patients. The team is doing a great job of educating and HCPs that have treated patients with TRYNGOLZA are actually looking for more patients to treat because of a very positive response that they're seeing when they're getting these patients on treatment and treating them accordingly. When we get to sHTG, the patient population obviously goes from about 3,000 patients in FCS up to approximately 3.4 million in sHTG.
And Kyle, can I ask you just a question on that because this is just as you're talking, it's making me think of my next question, which is just when you think about that 3.4 million population, how would you funnel it from like patients who've had a pancreatitis event historically, patients above 880 versus like everyone else? Because I feel like if you were building a model, right, like you could make penetrations that sort of sequentially go through those buckets?
And that's exactly the way to think about it, Paul, and that's exactly the way that we're going to approach this market. I described that as the beachhead, where do we want to establish olezarsen in the market for sHTG. And it's in the high-risk sHTG patient population.
So out of the 3.4 million patients, there are about 1 million patients within that population that have high-risk sHTG, which is inclusive of patients over 880, patients over 500 with a history of acute pancreatitis or over 500 with comorbidities, such as ASCVD or type 2 diabetes.
If you want to break that patient population down a little bit, there are about 60,000 or so patients that have over 500 with a history of AP. And there are approximately 540,000 or so that are over 880, okay? So it's around 600,000 patients in that. And then if you layer on those patients with comorbidities, it reaches the 1 million population, if not beyond that. So again, tremendous opportunity.
In terms of our targeting, I mentioned about the 3,000 HCPs that we're targeting today. When we get to sHTG, the strategy is going to be to reach approximately 20,000 of the highest sHTG treaters today. We know where they are. We know that they're currently seeing these patients. We know that they're currently using standard of care that's available to them, fish oils, fibrates, et cetera. And we know that many of those patients, unfortunately, are not getting below 500, which is the threshold in which acute pancreatitis becomes a significant concern.
So targeting strategy out to 20,000 HCPs those 20,000 are treating well over 350,000 of these sHTG patients. So we'll be able to get to that physician community, educate accordingly on the disease state, share clinical data. And obviously, once olezarsen is approved, we'll be able to sell on label in the sHTG population. So we've got a great strategy, a great team in place today for FCS. We're also scaling that team.
So our next step is to go from approximately 30 customer-facing team members that we have today. We'll go up to approximately 200 early next year. And those 200 customer-facing team members will be able to reach those 20,000 HCPs and do exactly what I've described.
#1, we'll be selling on label for TRYNGOLZA today in FCS, hopefully being able to treat and benefit those patients. And then secondly, we'll be able to begin to educate around sHTG in a compliant way so that we can also identify some of the sHTG patients leading up to the potential approval of TRYNGOLZA or olezarsen next year in sHTG.
On the regulatory front, on timing, Paul, just real quick. By the end of this year, we anticipate filing the sNDA. The timing for an sNDA is a 10-month review process. So we would anticipate under a regular review process that the approval would come sometime in the October time frame of next year. And obviously, we will pursue any means possible to accelerate that regulatory time line as well to figure out if there's a way we can shorten that and bring olezarsen to this patient population as quickly as possible.
Great. On the pricing, so I think, I'll phrase this maybe a different way than you've been asked before. I think part of the reason why you guys get bugged so much on pricing and how aggressive you're going to be or not is because there's some -- there's a camp of the investment community that is bullish on the value of the drug, but thinks that it's going to be used more narrowly and wonders if it's already going to be used more narrowly in the super, super high-risk patients, why not price it that way.
So I know you've talked about pricing it for broader access. What gives you the confidence that this is going to be used like more broadly than the people, who have a history of AP. Especially since like I think some of the other triglyceride launches again totally different apples and oranges, right, like haven't been billion-dollar drugs that you are alluding to?
Yes. So the first thing is we know from a demand standpoint and the research that we've done that HCPs understand that triglycerides at this level have an extremely high risk of these patients having acute pancreatitis. So the need is there.
The second thing is when you get above 500, you get above 880. It doesn't matter if these patients have had a historical event or not. HCPs are telling us that they want to prevent the first attack from ever occurring. You're right about, I think back to my beachhead comment, right? I also believe that patients that are above 500 with a history of AP, very -- no-brainer to put those patients on. Patients above 880, no-brainer to put them on.
We just talked about how large that segment is, right? It's still north of 600,000 patients just in those 2 buckets, and then you can go beyond that. So when we're looking at this and doing the research and talking to HCPs, and we tell them the clinical trial primary endpoint was anybody that's above 500 lowering triglycerides period. And they say, I want -- I would need a therapy, want a therapy to be able to lower triglycerides and get these patients below 500. And they have suboptimal treatments and therapies today on standard of care, as I mentioned, and they're looking for something better.
Our clinical trial supports exactly that patient population, right? CORE and CORE2 added olezarsen on top of standard of care. So these patients were on multiple background therapies and still not getting to goal. So when you combine the totality of the evidence and you talk to HCPs, what they're telling us is it's not just for the high-risk sHTG patients that I intend to treat. I intend to treat a broader population than that.
If you price too high, what happens is you put restrictions in place from the payers that then restrict their ability to do that. And if you restrict their ability to do what -- in the broader population, you ultimately will also restrict the population that you intend to treat, which is a high-risk population because they'll say it's too hard, too difficult. I don't know, if I'm going to get it approved and I don't want to use your drug.
So our goal is to maximize the value of olezarsen 100%, right? How do we get the price at a point that maximizes the value. We treat as many patients as possible with as few restrictions as possible, but we don't get to a point, where there's so many restrictions that HCPs aren't willing to use the therapy. That's what we've got to figure out how to balance.
Yes. Do you have any thoughts right now on like the right analogs?
I wouldn't say analogs, but the research that we've done over the last couple of years and the research that we've just kicked off, right? We've just gotten the CORE and CORE2 study results. As Beth mentioned, the results are so strong. I mean this is a landmark study with groundbreaking results when you look at what's been achieved here.
Triglyceride lowering, an 85% reduction in acute pancreatitis in this patient population. We're still going through the data around reductions in hospitalizations and ER visits, et cetera. Beth mentioned the number needed to treat, 20 in the population above 500, 4 in the population above 880 with a history of acute pancreatitis.
This is going to be really hard data for any following competitor to be able to match up to. I mean the standard is extremely high in terms of the bar that we've set here with this. We're taking the totality of this data and going out and doing our market research with HCPs and payers to figure out where the pricing is ultimately going to land.
Right now, we've committed to the $10,000 to $20,000 range because of the number of patients that we think would potentially go on to this therapy. We'll see if that sticks as we put the evidence out there and work with payers and do the research and see, where we can take the program.
Okay. Makes sense. Anything else to add here?
Not right now.
All right. We'll hit another topic. Maybe let's quickly just talk about HAE. I know it's early, but it's a crowded space. You've heard that a million times from people. Who do you think are the early adopters to this therapy?
So the interesting thing in the HAE market, while there are prophylactic therapies that are available today and many patients in the United States are already on treatment, about 75% of the identified HAE patients are on a prophylactic therapy in the United States, which makes this a switch market.
What's interesting about this market is patients are still unsatisfied. When you look at the data, it shows that about 20%, if not more, patients are switching on an annual basis between the existing prophylactic therapies that are on the market today. And the reason that they're switching is for a number of reasons.
There are really 3 key reasons. 1 is efficacy. They're continuing to have breakthrough attacks on the treatments that they're on, and they're looking for something better. #2, tolerability, the therapies that are out there, sometimes they're not well tolerated, and they're looking for something that could be better for them. And #3 is convenience. The standard today is every 2 weeks. in terms of administration and/or an oral on a daily basis.
So these patients are not happy. They're not satisfied, and I think there's an opportunity to do better with a better therapy. So what HCPs and patients have both told us is that the profile of DAWNZERA matches up very nicely regardless of 1 of those 3 reasons and has potentially an added benefit for the HAE patient population.
So when you look at reduction in attacks, we just had the college meeting last week, 94% to 95% in reduction of attacks over a 1-year period with DAWNZERA. DAWNZERA is able to be dosed every 4 or every 8 weeks. So now you're extending the dosing regimen to the longest dosing interval out there.
And tolerability, extremely well tolerated. It's an auto-injector that patients can self-administer a very low dose, 0.8 mls and patients are starting and taking this therapy and doing very well on it. So the early adopters today are first identified patients that have 1 of those 3 reasons that they're looking for a better option for their prophylactic treatment in HAE.
HCPs are talking to these patients more readily about how are they feeling and how are they doing because now there is a new novel treatment available, the first RNA-targeted therapy against the prekallikrein pathway. So we've got something that's innovative and different from an MOA standpoint and then obviously, the profile of the drug that I just mentioned.
So that dynamic and conversation, I think, is going to drive uptake and utilization in a switch market. So it will take time to build this market, as you would expect, because patients are going to be coming in throughout the course of the year and having conversations with their HCPs and understanding the profile and getting these patients started on drug.
Have you put a revenue number on this drug?
Greater than $500 million is our expectation for peak sales. For the end of this year, what we've said is we are comfortable with where consensus is today, which is right in the $8 million range for the end of this year. And we expect that to build and grow into next year.
And when you guys forecast this one, because it's obviously a little bit trickier, what are the assumptions you make around longer-acting therapies or like an oral prophy drug that is materially more effective than Orladeyo? Like it feels like just in my own mind, like there's a wide variance of outcomes in how this category looks?
It absolutely is. And if you look at this market, it's a growing market. I mean, well over $1.5 billion in the U.S., and I think it's going to continue to grow over time, especially as new therapies come into play. So to say that we're going to reach a peak of greater than $500 million, I think, is very realistic for the profile and the way that Dawnzera stacks up.
The other thing to keep in mind, as you just mentioned, as you model this is to think about the 4- and 8-week dosing schedule and the way that patients and HCPs will actually use the drug. We're thinking it's 80-20 probably more on 4-week than 8-week, but we'll see over time as that evolves to kind of see how the market builds and how HCPs actually treat the patients. But we expect patients to do very well on Dawnzera.
Okay. Okay. Great. Since I have the commercial lead here, I want to ask a TTR question, but not on the clinical side. And again, forgive me because I think the underlying assumption here is like you have a very competitive TTR drug that is likely to work in the cardiovascular outcome study. And so, let's just assume that for a second.
How do you think the TTR market unfolds over time on the payer side? Because I think, like one interesting element of this is just the Part B dynamics versus the Part D dynamics. My opinion is like vutrisiran has partially been able to maintain this really premium price because it's decoupled from this kind of Part D contracting battle.
How do you think about that with eplontersen given that the CM formulary in Part D is more crowded than the PN formulary? And how does the potential for generic tafamidis play into that?
Yes. Let me start by saying, I mean, this is -- it's such a high-growth market. The CM market, you've seen it double essentially within the last 2 years. I mean the exponential identification of patients, new therapies coming in, especially silencer class coming in, et cetera, I think, is going to drive this market significantly higher over time.
The projections are going to be globally that the CM market is going to be greater than $20 billion. AstraZeneca has said that they expect WAINUA to perform at greater than $5 billion in peak sales. So back to your point about the profile of WAINUA being very strong, very competitive and having AZ as a powerhouse partner in this program, I think, is going to be very meaningful for patients and for the revenue opportunity here.
On the payer side, you're right, Paul. It's been interesting to see the vutrisiran launch. They've done very well. Their strategy to maintain price and where they had a polyneuropathy pricing as opposed to dropping when they got to cardiomyopathy pricing. We'll see where that goes over time. I think that's a payer question for us to stay in tune with to see how much pressure is there and see if they do have to decrease price over time in order to maintain access for the patients that they're trying to reach.
On the Part D side, right, or on the commercial -- excuse me, on the pharmacy benefit side, you've got a couple of different stabilizers that are there that are fighting it out. Pfizer has been there for a long time. They've done a phenomenal job establishing tafamidis in the marketplace, and they've done a great job of creating access there.
I think the question for WAINUA ultimately will be how do you compete from a silencer and a stabilizer class standpoint. CARDIO-TTRansform will help inform that. It's the largest trial ever done in the TTR space. I think the body of evidence that we'll have to work with will be able to help us justify pricing.
And do you think -- so Alnylam has seen some combo use. Do you think that, that actually would be allowed by 2 drugs on the Part D side? Like I feel like it's a little bit of a whole grandfathered in because the Part B folks are not eating the tafamidis cost. Is that an unfair way to think about it?
I think it's going to be dependent upon data and evidence. Right?
Okay. And I think like you think if the data is great, they'll pay for multiple 6-figure drugs.
I think that's absolutely correct.
Where are we seeing combo?
We are today. we are seeing today. But it's going to be data-driven, right? So...
I think, this is a huge market. It's just like this is one of the more complex like payer dynamics that I can think of. And there's not great precedent, you know what I mean so.
Yes. But up to this point, WAINUA coverage has been exceptional based on the profile and the patients that are being treated. When you get to cardiomyopathy, we're really, really excited next year to read out the CARDIO-TTRansform trial, see what those data look like and be able to put that evidence together to be able to justify price in the pharmacy benefit side.
Okay. Okay. Fair enough. We have 4 minutes left. What would -- there's always so much to talk about with Ionis. What do you guys want to talk about?
Where do you want to go? I love to talk about the financial profile of the company.
Okay. Please.
I think we had Innovation Day at the beginning of October. And for the first time, we laid out a clear path to positive cash flow breakeven in 2028. That was a major event for Ionis. We really put a stake in the ground. And I think that the foundation for that is not only the strong balance sheet and financial profile we have today, but the financial outlook that we're anticipating as we look forward.
Just in our current marketed products and our late-stage Phase 3 programs, we anticipate annual peak sales of $5 billion or more. $3 billion of that is coming from our wholly-owned pipeline. And again, just our marketed programs and our late-stage programs that should be reaching the market in the next few years or so. That, I think, is really important.
Additionally, to amplify on that or accelerate that, we've got a projection of greater than $2 billion in royalties from our partnered programs. And that's really important because those royalties are essentially without cost. So they drop directly to the bottom line. So they amplify or accelerate our financial outlook and our financial performance.
So I think the fact that we have 2 products on the market today independently launched, we have 2 more coming next year. We have 4 to 5 Phase 3 data readouts from our partner programs next year means that we could have 5, 6, 7, 8 products on the market in the next couple of 3 years, driving to that $5-plus billion in peak revenue.
And that's what gives us the confidence to put the stake in the ground that we're going to be self-sustaining from a cash flow perspective at breakeven in 2028 and then accelerating that cash flow and that eventually that profitability push here very shortly. So I'm really excited about where we are financially. I think it's a huge strength for the company, and then it's a unique profile that other companies really can't leverage the way that we are.
Yes. That's great. All right. We can wrap-up. We have 1 minute left, but I think we covered a lot. So thank you both very much.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Stifel 2025 Healthcare Conference
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Ionis präsentiert starke kommerzielle Dynamik nach zwei unabhängigen Launches (TRYNGOLZA für familiäres Chylomikronämie‑Syndrom, FCS; DAWNZERA für hereditäres Angioödem, HAE) und beeindruckende Phase‑3‑Daten für olezarsen in schwerer Hypertriglyceridämie (sHTG). Management sieht klaren Pfad zu Wachstum und einem Cash‑Breakeven 2028.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Wirksamkeit: Olezarsen zeigte bis zu 72% Triglycerid‑Reduktion und eine 85%ige Senkung akuter Pankreatitis; Number‑Needed‑to‑Treat (NNT) 20 im Gesamtkollektiv, 4 in der sehr schweren Subgruppe — starkes differentielles Ergebnis.
- Kommerz: TRYNGOLZA: $57M Umsatz bis Ende September; aktualisierte Jahres‑Guidance $85–$95M. Zielkunden: Ausbau von ~3.000 FCS‑Behandlern (HCPs) auf ~20.000 sHTG‑Behandler; Außendienst von ~30→~200 Mitarbeiter geplant.
- Pricing & Access: Management peilt eine Preisrange von $10.000–$20.000 an, mit Fokus auf breiten Zugang statt enge Selektion, um restriktive Erstattungsbarrieren zu vermeiden.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Regulatorik: sNDA für olezarsen soll bis Ende des Jahres eingereicht werden; regulärer Prüfprozess ~10 Monate → mögliche Zulassung etwa im Oktober nächsten Jahres.
- Peak‑Potenziále: Olezarsen adressiert ein Marktpotenzial von ~ $1 Mrd.; DAWNZERA Peak‑Erwartung > $500M; Ionis sieht > $5 Mrd. Peak aus eigenen und späten Programmen plus > $2 Mrd. Partner‑Royalties.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Sicherheit: Diskussion zu leichten ALT/AST‑Anstiegen und Leberfett; Management meldet keine klinischen Folgen bisher und routinemäßige Weiterbeobachtung (Open‑Label‑Extension).
- Kommerzstrategie: Fragen zur Segmentierung des 3,4 Mio. sHTG‑Pools (z.B. >880 mg/dL vs. >500 mg/dL mit früherer Pankreatitis) und zur Priorisierung von „Beachhead“‑Patienten.
- Preis/Payer: Kritische Nachfragen zu Pricing‑Tradeoffs: höhere Preise können zu stärkeren Beschränkungen führen; außerdem Debatte zu Part‑B vs. Part‑D‑Dynamics und Kombinationsnutzung im TTR‑Markt.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Starke Daten und frühe kommerzielle Traktion reduzieren Entwicklungs‑ und Marktrisiken; Hauptabhängigkeiten für den Kurs sind finale Zulassungen, Pricing/Erstattungs‑Verhandlungen und die erfolgreiche Skalierung der Vertriebsorganisation auf breitere sHTG‑Segmente. Positiver, aber execution‑abhängiger Ausblick.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Special Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Good afternoon, and welcome to IONIS conference call to discuss Olisorsen's Phase III detailed results. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Wade Walke, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations [indiscernible]. Please begin.
Thank you, [indiscernible]. And thank you to everyone who has joined us today as we discuss the groundbreaking results from the landmark core and core 2 studies of olozorsen in people with sHTG. These data were presented earlier today at a late-breaking American Heart Association Scientific session and published simultaneously in the New England Journal of Medicine. Please be sure to visit the Investors section of the IONIS website to see the AHA presentation along with the press release issued and the slides accompanying today's webcast.
With me on the call today are pancreatitis Brett Monia, Chief Executive Officer, will provide opening remarks. Dr. Sam Tsimikas, Senior Vice President, Global Cardiovascular Development, will discuss the significant unmet need associated with sHTG and will then review the CORE and CORE2 study results. Kyle Jenne, Chief Global Product Strategy Officer, who will discuss our go-to-market approach to achieving launch success, assuming approval of olazarsen for sHTG and Richard Geary, Chief Development Officer, who will join us for Q&A after Brett's conclusion.
Before passing the call over to Brett, I would like to remind you that our discussion today will contain forward-looking statements based on our current expectations and beliefs. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially I encourage you to consult the risk factors contained in our SEC filings for additional detail. With that, I'll turn the call over to Brett.
Thanks, Wade, and thank you, everybody, for joining us this afternoon. We are here today to discuss the groundbreaking results from the Phase III CORE and CORE 2 studies of olozarsen in people with severe hypertriglyceridemia or sHTG that were presented earlier today in the late-breaking session of AHA and simultaneously published in the New England Journal of Medicine. These positive data further strengthen our confidence in olezarsen's ability to become the new standard of care for the broad SHTG patient population. In the Phase III results presented and published today, olezarsen demonstrated rapid substantial and significant reductions in triglycerides probably up to 72% on top of standard of care and reduce the risk of acute pancreatitis events by 85%.
This makes lasers in the first and only investigational treatment to achieve this remarkable outcome in sHTG. Furthermore, patients treated with olezarsen achieved triglyceride levels below 500 milligrams per deciliter, which is the triglyceride threshold that defines sHTG and a substantial percentage of patients achieved normal triglyceride levels. These unprecedented efficacy results, together with a favorable safety and tolerability profile position olezarsen to fundamentally change the treatment paradigm for people living with sHTG.
2025 has been a year of accelerating growth for IONIS as we entered a new era as a fully integrated commercial stage biotechnology company. In just the first 9 months of this year, we initiated our first 2 independent launches. We successfully launched TRYNGOLZA, the brand name for olezarsen in its first indication in January as the first and only FDA-approved treatment for people living with familial chylomicronemia syndrome.
TRYNGOLZA launch continues to go very well. In August, our second independent launch got underway with the approval of DAWNZERA as a prophylactic treatment for hereditary angioedema or HAE. The early feedback from physicians and the patient community has been very encouraging, with strong enthusiasm for DAWNZERA's compelling profile and novel mechanism of action. And this is just the beginning. Next year, we have 2 more independent launches planned, olezarsen for SHTG, which we're here to discuss today, and zilganersen for Alexander's disease.
With positive pivotal results for both programs now in hand, IONIS is well positioned to continue delivering a steady cadence of important medicines to patients next year and for years to come. With the compelling core and CORE2 results in hand and the meaningful impact olezarsen is already having for people with FCS, we're in a very strong position to capitalize on our first mover advantage in sHTG.
We remain on track to submit our supplemental NDA for olezarsen by the end of this year and to launch in the fourth quarter of next year. As you'll hear from Kyle, our U.S. launch preparations for the sHTG indication are well underway. Setting the stage for olezarsen to reach the broad patient population and drive the next phase of growth for IONIS.
Before I turn the call over to Sam, I'd like to recognize the patients families and clinicians who participated in the olezarsen studies. Their commitment made these important results possible. I'd also like to acknowledge the IONIS team whose continued dedication to patients and to the olezarsen program have been instrumental in achieving the positive outcomes that we're discussing today.
And with that, I'll pass the call over to Sam to provide an overview of sHTG, [indiscernible] program and our groundbreaking results. Sam?
Thank you, Brett. And hello to everyone with us on the call. Before I begin, I'd also like to recognize and thank everyone whose contributions made today's results possible, including our colleagues at the [indiscernible] Study Group who collaborated with us on the olezarsen Phase III program. The CORE and CORE2 studies were designed to evaluate olezarsen and people with sHTG. sHTG is defined by fasting served triglycerides levels of 500 milligrams per deciliter or higher driven by factors such as genetics, diabetes, obesity, and metabolic syndrome, all of which can impair triglyceride clearance. When triglycerides exceed 500 large lipid particles called chylomicron to begin to accumulate in the bloodstream increasing the risk of acute pancreatitis. At high enough concentrations, chylomicrons can become toxic to the pancreas and lead to acute pancreatitis, a serious and particularly life-threatening condition associated with hospitalization, intensive care admissions and long-term complications, including repeat pancreatitis events. As triglycerides rates increase, chylomicron also increased, and the risk for acute pancreatitis becomes even greater, especially a level exceeding 880. For many people living with sHTG, current triglyceride lowering treatments, such as fibrates and omega-3 fatty acids failed to sufficiently lower the triglycerides.
Moreover, none have shown a proven benefit in lowering the risk of acute pancreatitis, which highlights the need for more effective therapies. With the relationship between sHTG and acute pancreatitis well understood, clinical guidelines already recommend aggressive triglyceride lowering for people living with sHTG. However, despite these recommendations, current treatment options and lifestyle interventions remain insufficient, leaving these people at continued at substantial risk.
Olezarsen's remarkable efficacy is based on targeting ApoC-III, a novel mechanism that I own has pioneered from managing conditions associated with high triglycerides. As a central regulator of triglyceride metabolism, ApoC-III elevates triglyceride levels through 2 primary mechanisms. First, it represses lipoprotein lipase the enzyme that breaks down triglyceride-rich particles. And second, it blocks the clearance of these particles from the circulation. The result is an accumulation of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins like chylomicrons that cause complications like pancreatitis. Olezarsen works by reducing the production of ApoC-III, effectively resetting triglyceride metabolism. This allows triglyceride-rich particles to be broken down and cleared.
With the understanding of how Olezarsen works, here's an overview of the studies that made up our comprehensive Phase III development program. First, the pivotal placebo-controlled CORE and CORE2 studies, which comprise the largest pivotal program ever conducted in sHTG. Data from these studies were presented earlier today at and simultaneously published in the [indiscernible]. We also conducted the Phase III ESSENCE study to contribute to the safety database in our planned sNDA filing.
ESSENCE primarily enrolled participants with moderate hypertriglyceridemia and elevated cardiovascular risk. Positive data from this study were presented at the European Society of Cardiology and we're also simultaneously published in the New England Journal of Medicine in August. Now let's go over the CORE and CORE2 study design and the groundbreaking results. Participants in CORE and CORE2 were required to be on stable standard of care lipid-lowering therapy throughout the trial. Diet will stabilize during screening and maintained with the support of Counseling throughout the treatment period.
Participants were effectively randomized 1:1:1 to olezarsen 50, 80 milligrams or placebo. Participants were stratified based on triglyceride levels greater than or less than 880 and with or without a history of acute pancreatitis in the 10 years prior to enrollment. The treatment period was 12 months and the primary efficacy endpoint, the placebo-adjusted mean percent reduction in fasting triglycerides was assessed at 6 months. Key prespecified secondary endpoint was a percent change in adjudicated acute pancreatitis events with pooled olezarsen compared to pooled placebo at 12 months.
Additional key secondary endpoints included the portion of patients we achieved triglycerides below 880 and 500 as well as a reduction in ApoC-III and a variety of lipid parameters. Participants who completed the placebo-controlled portion of the studies were eligible to enroll in an open-label extension study, and we're pleased to report that more than 90% of eligible participants elected to participate. Based on characteristics from CORE and Core2 highlight the severity of shh in the study population. BD and baseline fasting triglyceride levels were in the mid-700 to 800 range [indiscernible] were over 1,000. Around 40% to 50% of participants had baseline fasting triglyceride levels greater than 880. About 13% to 23% of participants had at least 1 event of a acute pancreatitis. All participants were on stable treatment with at least 1 lipid-lowering therapy and more than 60% were on 2 or more lipid-lowering therapies, underscoring the lack of effective therapies.
Now to the results. beginning with the primary efficacy endpoint of fasting triglycerides reduction at 6 months. As reported in the top line data, olezarsen significantly reduced triglycerides by up to 72% with both doses in both studies achieving highly statistically placebo-adjusted mean reductions.
Now I want to share with you new compelling data that were presented and published earlier today. The substantial triglyceride reductions achieved at 6 months were sustained through 12 months of ongoing olein treatment, underscoring the durability of response over time. in both the 50- and 80-milligram doses and across both CORE and CORE2 studies, patients experience dose-dependent, rapid and robust reductions in triglyceride levels. Importantly, these rapid, durable and highly statistically significant reductions were achieved on top of standard of care therapy. At 12 months, a substantial proportion of participants achieved meaningful triglyceride reductions across key clinical thresholds.
Nearly 90% of participants with baseline triglyceride levels above 880, the level associated with the highest risk of acute pancreatitis achieved triglycerides reductions below this critical level. 86% of patients achieved triglycerides levels below 500, a threshold for sHTG and acute pancreatitis risk demonstrated olezarsen potential to bring patients below this important level. And up to 54% of patients reached normal triglycerides levels below 150, highlighting olezarsen potential to restore triglycerides to a healthy range for people living with sHTG.
Now let's turn our focus to the most clinically relevant secondary endpoint of this population a reduction in acute pancreatitis events, which were assessed in a comparison of pooled olezarsen to approve placebo across the 2 studies. We're very pleased that olezarsen achieved a highly statistically significant 85% reduction in adjudicated acute pancreatitis events after only 12 months of treatment. These results were based on a total of 22 events in 17 patients in the placebo group compared to 7 events in 5 patients treated with olezarsen.
Clinical evidence demonstrates the patients with triglycerides above 880 faced significantly increased risk of acute pancreatitis. Looking at the breakdown of acute pancreatitis events in these high-risk patients in our study confirm this relationship with the majority of events concentrated among these patients. These results provide definitive evidence that substantial triglyceride reduction with olezarsen translates to clinically meaningful protection against pancreatitis -- against acute pancreatitis for sHTG patients.
Now let's take a look at the number needed to treat for NNT. NNT is a measure of clinical efficacy that tells us how many patients need to receive therapy to prevent one additional event. For context, statins used for primary prevention have an NNT in the range of 50 to 100 to prevent one cardiovascular event over 5 years. With olezarsen, NNT is substantially lower and in a much shorter time period in the overall pooled analysis, treating just 20 patients with olezarsen is estimated to prevent one acute pancreatitis event in only 12 months.
And as you can see, the 2 curves separate quickly that [indiscernible] in the placebo group beginning to accumulate early and continuing to rise over time. In contrast, the olezarsen group shows a substantially lower rate of events throughout the 12-month period demonstrating olezarsen's potential to meaningfully improve outcomes for patients with sHTG.
Now in the highest risk subgroup, those with triglycerides above 880 and a history of acute pancreatitis, the NNT is only 4 patients after just 12 months. Being an NNT ranging from 4 to 20 for a potentially fatal event like pancreatitis and achieved in just 1 year is very compelling to physicians and provides a sense of urgency to treat with olezarsen. Olezarsen also showed improvements across additional key lipid measures. We saw significant reductions in ApoC-III remnant cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, along with substantial increases in HDL cholesterol. As expected, we saw a modest rise in LDL cholesterol consistent with the known effect that occurs with triglycerides are reduced in this patient population.
Additionally, the increase was proportional to the decreases in remnant and non-HDL cholesterol. APOB, which reflects a total number of atherogenic lipoprotein particles decreased slightly. Together, these results demonstrate overall favorable lipid profile. Olezarsen demonstrated a favorable safety and tolerability profile in CORE and CORE2. Adverse events were generally balanced across treatment arms. Notably, serious adverse events occur less frequently in the olezarsen-treated participants. The most common treatment-emergent events were injection site reactions, which were mostly mild and occurred more frequently with olezarsen.
This table shows several additional parameters we measured in CORE and CORE2, all of which were generally consistent with previous study results. At the 80-milligram dose, some patients experienced asymptomatic increases in liver enzymes, equal to or greater 3x the upper limit of normal. These elevations were not associated with clinical complications and generally resolved with continued dosing. Sit with previously reported results with ApoC-III targeting drugs, small absolute mean increases in liver fat and hemoglobin A1c were observed. Increases in liver fat were not correlated with transaminase elevations and were not associated with clinical sequelae.
There were no imbalances in hemoglobin A1c in nondiabetic patients. Olezarsen delivered [indiscernible] outcomes in severe hypertriglyceridemia. 86% of patients reach triglyceride levels below 500 and acute pancreatitis incidents was reduced by 85% compared to placebo. These results established olezarsen as the first and only investigational treatment to significantly reduce such events in this population. With these compelling data in hand, we are on track to submit our NDA by the end of the year setting us up to bring olezarsen to people with sHTG in the fourth quarter of next year. These results mark an historical achievement in lipidology and positions to become the new standard of care for people living with sHTG. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Kyle.
Thank you, Sam, and good afternoon, everyone. The CORE and CORE2 results reinforce our confidence that olezarsen is poised to become the new standard of care for sHTG addressing a large patient population with significant unmet need. People with sHTG live with a substantial risk of acute pancreatitis, a painful and potentially life-threatening complication that can lead to hospitalization and long-term organ damage. Side available treatments, physicians consistently tell us that they are dissatisfied with the current standard of care. Existing therapies offer only modest triglyceride reductions and don't eliminate the risk of pancreatitis.
In the U.S. alone, more than 3 million people live with sHTG, including over 1 million with high-risk sHTG. People with sHTG faced a fivefold greater risk of an acute pancreatitis event. Each event not only carries the potential for severe even fatal outcomes with mortality rates reaching up to 8% per triglyceride inducement, but also increase the likelihood of recurrence and long-term pancreatic injury. Beyond the human toll, the economic burden is substantial, driven by hospitalizations, intensive care admissions and long recovery periods.
This serious and recurring risk highlights the urgent need for a medicine that can both lower triglycerides effectively and reduce the risk of pancreatitis itself, something current treatments have not been able to achieve. That's where olezarsen comes in. The groundbreaking results from the CORE and CORE2 studies demonstrate that olezarsen is uniquely positioned to address these unmet needs. In addition to its strong efficacy and favorable safety and tolerability profile demonstrated in the core studies, olezarsen offers the convenience of once-monthly self-administration with an auto-injector which is highly valued by patients and physicians alike.
As a KOL summarized perfectly "A treatment that meaningfully lowers triglycerides and reduces acute pancreatitis risk, something we've never seen before would be a game changer." We believe olezarsen is that game changer. At launch, we planned to focus on more than 1 million high-risk sHTG patients, those with triglycerides above 880 milligrams per deciliter or those above 500 with a history of acute pancreatitis or other comorbidities. These are the patients most in need and the physicians treating them already understand the urgency. Our commercial strategy leverages our early success with TRYNGOLZA and FCS to engage with health care providers who are already prescribing the therapy, many of whom manage sHTG patients.
In parallel, we are broadening our reach to additional prescribers who treat these patients. To support this effort, we are expanding awareness of sHTG through targeted disease education and continued investment in our commercial infrastructure. Over time, we anticipate penetrating deeper into the 3 million-plus patient population with triglycerides above 500.
With olezarsen, we see a clear path to blockbuster potential. We recently conducted additional HCP research based on olezarsen's overall profile presented today. Industrial research results confirmed the high level of enthusiasm for olezarsen and particularly its remarkable ability to lower triglycerides and reduce pancreatitis events. To realize the potential of olezarsen, we're leveraging the strong commercial foundation built with TRYNGOLZA, including disease education, patient finding and payer engagement as we prepare the market for olezarsen's broader sHTG indication, assuming approval. Our cardiometabolic field team will consist of roughly 200 specialists who will target the approximately 20,000 highest treating HCPs in the U.S. while also expanding our reach through omnichannel education campaigns. With key field metal and commercial leadership in place, we've begun scaling the team to expand our capabilities to ensure we have the reach and expertise in place ahead of launch.
We're also engaged payers and they already recognize the value of treating people with sHTG given the substantial cost and clinical burden of pancreatitis. Together, these efforts are setting us up for a strong launch. Olezarsen is well positioned to be the new standard of care in sHTG. It is backed by groundbreaking data, our first-mover advantage and a growing base of engaged physicians, patients and payers. With an experienced commercial organization, building on the success of TRYNGOLZA and FCS, we are on track to bring olezarsen this broad patient population in the fourth quarter of next year. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Brett.
Thanks, Kyle. Today's data from the CORE and CORE2 studies reinforce our confidence that olezarsen will establish a new standard of care, offering a potentially transformative therapy for this large patient population. It's another example of how we're turning groundbreaking science into meaningful medicines that change lives. With these strong losartan results, we're well positioned to launch next year.
We're also on track to bring Zilganersen people with Alexander disease in the same time frame. These anticipated launches build on the continued momentum of TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA as we deliver on our goal to bring a steady cadence of important new medicines to patients. Beyond our independent launches, by the end of 2027, we expect 4 launches from key late-stage partnered medicines to treat a range of serious life-threatening diseases.
These medicines are poised to significantly expand the reach of IONIS discovered medicines, to many more patients in need. World-class science and expanding commercial footprint and a proven ability to bring first-in-class therapies to patients need the most, our exceptional progress positions IONIS for substantial growth and sustained value creation. Most importantly, we remain steadfast in our mission to profoundly improve the lives of people with serious diseases. Thank you again for joining us today. And now we'll open up the call for questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Jay Olson with Oppenheimer.
2. Question Answer
Congrats on achieving this major milestone for the treatment of sHTG. We're curious if you measured the participants use of background medications, dietary and lifestyle interventions during the CORE studies. And does evidence suggest that based on the significant reduction in normalization of triglyceride and the reduction of acute pancreatitis that olezarsen would enable patients to normalize their diets and lifestyles and reduce the use of background medications?
This is Sam. I'm happy to answer that. So as we mentioned, the patients got dietary counseling at the beginning of the study before randomization and throughout the whole time. So that should have been balanced across the groups. And in terms of background therapies, you saw that they're very intensively treated and still have high triglycerides, large number of patients on statins, 2/3 on [indiscernible], 1/3 on omega-3 fatty acids. We did look at GLP-1 receptor agonist. That was about 15%. It was also balanced during the trial. And so the bottom line is the 3 groups [indiscernible] balanced in all of the background therapies. Regarding your question about liberalizing diet, we really didn't study that in this population. What we know is that despite optimal diet, these patients have a polygenic etiology for their hyper triglycerides. They're not purely related to diet, diabetes or obesity to have multiple abnormalities and triglyceride genes. So they probably would have been hypertriglyceridemic or would have been no matter of those background therapies. So they need a real therapy for their problem. Now whether you can liberalize a diet and that sort of thing is unknown. We do know it from the FCS population that they have to stay on their diet. So we wouldn't recommend that at this point, but it's something that could be studied as we go forward in the open label, for example, et cetera. We do know, as you saw the curves, we have rock solid reductions in triglycerides through out to 12 months. They're not budging at all. There's no fluctuations. And so the therapy is very effective and to prevent pancreatitis, I think we need that robust effectiveness.
And if I could please ask one follow-up. Since we've never seen triglyceride reduction or AP reduction like this before, I want to recognize that it might be difficult to predict the impact that olezarsen could have on clinical practice. But if I could maybe ask you to speculate a little bit on how these impressive results could change treatment guidelines.
Sure. I think the results are unprecedented. I don't think it'd be very difficult for another trial to meet a 72% placebo-corrected reduction in triglycerides. When we do cardiovascular outcomes trials, we hope for 15% to 20% reduction. Here, we had an 85% reduction of pancreatitis. And in the first study, I equate this trial result to what we saw with 4S, which was the very first study with statins to show a clinical benefit. We knew we can lower LDL with, for example, [indiscernible], but we didn't have any clinical data. This trial is going to be in that historic context and because that, it should go in the top line of the guidelines when people talk about sHTG, and we'll see how that goes going forward, but it would be highly surprising if it didn't make it to the very top.
And the next question comes from the line of Mani Foroohar with Leerink.
Congrats on great data. A couple of quick questions, if that's all right. I think, first of all, this data would seem to align very closely with what is described as an appropriate agent for the [indiscernible] priority voucher pilot program recognizing that, obviously, that's something that has to get down there from inside the FDA. Could you comment on to what extent you've been engaged with the agency and whether or not you see this as being sort of an opportunity for this olezarsen. And then separately, moving over to the data, I and you guys have had a couple of relative bears arguing that perhaps accumulation of liver fat in the liver could be an issue? I know [indiscernible] commented on the lack of correlation between increased liver fat and elevated liver enzymes. Could you comment on how you think about resolution of the liver fat signal? Is that simply an on-mechanism phenomenon that doesn't have clinical -- it doesn't have a clinical consequence? Or just how to think about that given that, that is a bare thesis has been floating around there.
Yes. Thanks, Mani. Very quickly, I'll touch on the path to regulatory approval in the U.S. and then Sam can talk about on target what his thoughts are on mechanism of small increases in liver fat that we've seen. So we're going to -- our plan right now is to submit the NDA, as we mentioned in the webcast earlier by the end of the year. we're assuming right now a standard review that puts us into the fourth quarter for approval and launch. However, we are looking at all possible opportunities to accelerate that path forward. that can include, for example, seeking priority review could also include potentially seeking national priority review under the new program, under the new administration that you flagged. So we're working on all that internally right now. But right now, we're just getting that sNDA submitted by the end of the year, and that's where our laser focused. Yes, go ahead.
So on the [indiscernible], a couple of important issues. One is there were no clinical [indiscernible] that we noticed. So there were no complaints from patients or physicians about that issue. It was not correlated to transaminases. So it suggests there's no inflammatory response going on in these patients. And it was fairly small overall. And so the -- if you think about the mechanism of that, it's speculation at this point, but the way that olezarsen works and other drugs, which have had similar findings, is that they allow increased uptake of hepatic of circulating triglycerides into the liver. That's one of their mechanisms to clear it out of the circulation. And the livers in these patients already congested. So we think it's probably a finite phenomenon where moving triglyceride from a very dangerous compartment [indiscernible] acute pancreatitis into the liver and the liver probably just need some time to kind of process that. So we don't anticipate this being a chronic issue, but it is requiring some calibration of where the triglycerides are going. We are doing studies to evaluate these patients in the open label, and we'll have more data going forward.
Great. Do you mind you guys want to [indiscernible] one more in there? Commercially, there's been obviously a discussion on a potential price point. That's always dependent upon clinical data and the value to the patient and system, of course. As I previously talked about a price point more suitable for a mass specialty market, something in the 20 and 30s range. A number of my colleagues elsewhere have commented that perhaps something closer to where [indiscernible] in the high 40s range could be -- could make sense for the 1 million patient more severe population. Given what you disclosed about the number needed to treat for being really got even '20 being pretty damn good. How should we be thinking about modeling this at launch, once it's reset down from the FCS price, like how should we think about modeling potential price, value and where in that band should we be landing either on a growth or a net basis, however you want to talk about it?
Sure. Thanks for the question. And obviously, that's ongoing work, and it's one of the critical questions that we want to make sure that we answer the right way. The key here is to make sure that there is broad access and availability for physicians to be able to prescribe and patients to be able to receive this medication. What we know today is that these are very meaningful meaningful results is what you just outlined. The number needed to treat is very substantial and is going to be very helpful in terms of the case to price this accordingly. The big picture that we're looking at on pricing is how do we make sure that we maximize value for the asset and we don't limit the ability for this to reach the broad population that's in need of triglyceride lowering. So the work that we're doing right now will encompass all of the data that's been represented today. We'll also include hospitalization as well as emergency room data. So we'll be able to put that totality of data together and go out and conduct that work. we're comfortable today is in the $15,000 to $20,000 range is what we continue to see come back from payers. The reason that we are hearing that today is they are looking at the potential indication for this product to be consistent with what the primary endpoint was in the clinical trial, which is appropriate for any patient that's greater than 500 milligrams per deciliter. They don't look at this as being a subset of population in terms of above 880 or above 500 with a history of acute pancreatitis. And the patient population, they feel that they will potentially have a budget impact around is potentially up to 3 million-plus patients. So that's the work we're continuing to do. Obviously, the quality and the strength of this data are going to help us come to a final pricing determination and we'll work through that and announce price upon approval like we've done with the FCS population as well as with our HAE program in DAWNZERA.
Mani, I'll just add to that with respect to population. We have consistently heard from a large list of physicians that manage sHTG patients that their plan is to treat patients at 500 and above who do not respond adequately to existing generic drugs. And as you know, the vast majority of patients do not respond well to existing fibrates or fish oils. They don't want that first acute pancreatitis attack to happen. They know the consequences. Once you get one, the chance of having another one is recurring and increases substantially, causing pancreatic failure. Mortality rate for an acute pancreatitis event is 6%. They don't want that to happen. So we're going after a large population here, not just recurring patients with a history of AP. Of course, those patients will be aggressively treated by physicians because they're the ones in the greatest immediate need, but this is a very broad population we're going to go after.
And the next question comes from the line of Jessica Fye with JP Morgan.
I had two. First, with greater than 90% of patients going into the OLE, are you continuing to capture AP events in the extension portion? And do you think we might learn anything interesting from that extra follow-up on AP? And then second, I was hoping you could just remind us the number of sales reps you plan to have in place for the FACT launch? And what proportion of the 1 million high-risk patients you expect to be able to access with that initial sales force?
Thanks, Jess. Sam, [indiscernible]
So we were very pleased to see that the OLE was oversubscribed. It's almost unheard of to get 90% of patients, pretty much everybody to finish the trial got into it. And we have very, very positive reflection of that because now the patients can see their triglyceride levels were during the trial, they were blinded [indiscernible]. And we have an overwhelming positive responses. In fact, we've been asked to extend the OLE as much as we can. So yes, we are capturing pancetitis events. We are following those patients very carefully because it's really a study. It's not just a random given the drug and just follow them late. So we're capturing as much information as we can. What we've seen in the other studies, and we anticipate to see in this study is this is not a cure for pancreatitis, but it reduces basically 9 out of 10 cases, essentially. So there's all [indiscernible] that will have something because there's something that continue to have this. But the vast majority should the pancreatitis free, and that should sustain. And I think if we had done a 3-year study that was randomized, those curves would continue to expand. So bottom line is, yes, we'll be able to report on some of that information as we go into the future, the last patient was in June. So we need to wait a little bit to give you some information on that. But we should have 2 years of OLE data in the future to be able to report on some of these issues.
Yes, Jess. And on the scale-up for sHTG, we'll be able to build a team of approximately 200 customer-facing team members. They will cover approximately 22,000 of the highest treaters of sHTG, and there are approximately 350,000 patients within that population that they're currently treating today.
Next question comes from the line of Debjit Chattopadhyay with Guggenheim.
I have a couple of questions. How much does it currently cost to treat a pancreatitis event. I'm only going back to your 15,000 to 20,000 price point. So any thoughts on what it costs? And number two, given the focus somehow seems to be on liver fat, the 50-milligram dose was largely undifferentiated from the 80 milligrams in overall efficacy, but it's clearly differentiated on safety. So do you think physicians will just use the 50-milligram dose and I'm assuming you're going to price it at a flat price Clarification would be great.
[indiscernible] on the cost of AP?
Yes. The cost of AP, there's been a recent publication on this actually is estimated to be about $100,000. That's inclusive of the costs leading up to as well as the hospitalization and then the cost to treat after that. So that will factor into the totality of the data that we work with payers on to justify the price point for treating this patient population.
And Debjit, you are correct that indeed that the 50-milligram dose showed a really stunning efficacy as, of course, the 80-milligram dose. We did see better in totality, better efficacy for 80 milligrams over 50 on several parameters, including the patients that we [indiscernible] normal levels below 150. There are other -- the overall mean reductions in triglycerides too were better for the 80 milligrams too. And this is only 12 months of treatment. So the 80-milligram is going to show -- continue to show even better efficacy with long-term treatment, including potentially reductions in acute pancreatitis versus 50, we'll see about that. But we believe that offering dosing flexibility to treaters with both doses will be a very significant advantage on commercially. And I'd like maybe Sam to talk a little bit about how he sees maybe physicians considering the use of one dose versus another and what that flexibility may entail?
Well, we're very used to having multiple doses in cardiology. As you know, we have this sort of blood pressure meds. We have this for lipid-lowering therapy. So -- and in some cases where you want to start low and go up, but there are the cases when you want to start very high, especially if somebody's had like an acute event or some issue like that. So we do that, for example, with statin. So I think we want to give the physicians optionality to be able to choose what they think is best for their patient and monitor them. I don't think the hepatic fat fraction is going to be a major differentiator in this case because we don't know if that's a serious issue. It looks like it isn't. And so we don't want to say that, that is going to limit what we do down the road. That could be a transient phenomenon that may not even factor into it, and they may just speak the potency of the drug that's driving that. So bottom line is I think physicians would want to have 2 doses, and we will trust them to be smart enough to know how to manage their patients with those doses.
And in terms of pricing, I would anticipate flat pricing, just to make sure that we've got the access that Sam just described for any patient population that needs to be treated.
The next question comes from the line of Gary Nachman with Raymond James.
This is Denis Reznik on for Gary. Congrats to the whole team on the [indiscernible] today. So when we look at the NNT analysis presented for AP events, can you just help contextualize those numbers a little bit more for us as it relates to the other therapies? And then commercially, how do you expect both payers and physicians to look at this specific data point? And then when we think about the upcoming SNDA filing, how much of this AP level data do you think could make it way into the label to supplement what's already in the FCS label? And how much does it really matter commercially to have it there in the label versus just being able to share and promote their recent journal publication?
. Maybe, Sam, you take [indiscernible]
Yes. Well, I started a [indiscernible] study today, which had really excellent data, the NNT was about 60. So when you get to NNT under 50...
[indiscernible]
So that's -- yes. So we're at 20 for the overall population, we're 4 for the very high risk. So NNT the numbers are phenomenal and very in the ballpark where they're considered clinically relevant and cost-effective. So we couldn't be more pleased with those numbers actually. And I think physicians will latch on to them because you don't have to treat 100 patients [indiscernible] benefit, you need to treat 4 high risk and only 20 average risk. And so I would say that this exceeds what is generally done in the lipid lowering world and is more closer to what we've seen with defibrillators and kind of life-saving procedures that we do.
We believe that this groundbreaking these groundbreaking results on acute pancreatitis should be in the label to lower triglycerides prevent acute pancreatitis from happening. But we can't speak for the FDA, Dennis. So we'll see what happens. At the end of the day, we are now -- we've now published data in the most reputable clinical journal in the world. And everybody knows about the data. Everybody sees it. So I mean from a commercial standpoint, Kyle, we're hopeful we'll have it in the label, it's nice to have it in the label, but I don't think it's necessary for commercial success.
I completely agree with that. And the treaters of sHTG today understand the risk of acute pancreatitis. They're using all the available medications that are at their disposal to try to get these patients under control. And unfortunately, it's suboptimal care in a lot of instances, and they're looking for something better. So consistent with the way that we designed the clinical trial, adding olezarsen on for this patient population, I think, is going to be well received and largely adopted fairly quickly, I would anticipate. In terms of it being in the label, the indication statement versus if it's in Section 14. Regardless, I think as long as the data are available, and we can discuss the information, as Brett just described, we'll be able to communicate the strength of the data and the information so that clinicians can make the right decisions in terms of treating appropriate patients with olezarsen. The other question was around payers and the strength of the number needed to treat -- that absolutely is going to help us with the total body of evidence that we have when we go out to do the physician -- excuse me, the payer research so that we can come up with the appropriate pricing. The triglyceride lowering acute pancreatitis rates, hospitalizations, ER, number needed to treat, cost of an AP event, et cetera, everything that we've been talking about here, all of that creates the strength and the body of evidence for us to say if you're treating within a population that's over 500 regardless if they've had an AP event or not, what's the appropriate pricing for this is the exact work that we're going to do right now in order to come to the right conclusion.
And the next question comes from the line of Akash Tewari with Jefferies.
This is Zaki on for Akash. So just on the liver enzyme elevations. Can you tell us just a little bit more about the baseline rate of those patients in that 80-milligram arm, like were they already near that 3x, 5x boundary before therapy and just kind of the -- did they -- through the therapy just cross that boundary. I just wanted to know if they were kind of already near before they got on drug. And then secondly, would you anticipate based on this data that there may be a need for liver monitoring on the label, particularly for those patients on 80 milligrams.
So because these patients are known to have elevation of baseline LFTs, we actually allowed them to come in at 3x about normal -- up to 3x about normal. So the best way to answer your question is, if you look at the placebo group, 2% had just random increases 3x above normal during the trial, which is more than you typically see in these lipid lowering trials and about 30% had an increase above normal. So these patients tend to have elevated LFTs, and they're very sensitive to a lot of things like eating a lot of fat, alcohol, antibiotics, they tend to have spikes up and down. So I think the best way to characterize the LFTs that we [indiscernible] during the trial is that in the ones that had an increase, they can continue dosing the levels, in general, stayed flat or declined over time. So it wasn't a progressive phenomenon. It wasn't a phenomenon where you had this abrupt change. There was no [indiscernible] and really nobody got over 5x. So these were kind of in the borderline range in terms of 3x for the ones that had the increases. In the overall population, the patients stayed at the mean level stayed in the normal range. So that wasn't in the paper, but that's the data. So overall, it's not a major issue from that perspective, and it's usually checked. We don't think there's going to need to be monitoring on this because there were no clinical quality associated with it. in terms of any specific monitoring we probably just have to have routine labs when they get them.
And the next question comes from the line of Salveen Richter with Goldman Sachs.
Congratulations on these very impressive results. This is Tommie on for Salveen. Wondering if we could just get some more detail on the treated patients who had AP events, maybe with their response with regard to their TG levels, [indiscernible] level and if they had a history of AP?
So that information -- a lot of that information is in the paper, maybe not to a lot of granularity. But the bottom line is that the majority of events, but not all of them happened in the patients that had triglycerides over 80 and acute pancreatitis. That's 17 patients, 22 cases in the placebo group. But there were 3 patients, 3 events below that. Pancreatitis event rates were 5 patients and 7 events in the pool placebo. But in under 880, there was actually only 1 patient, 1 event. So kind of the trends are there on both sides. Of course, we have a lot more [indiscernible] answer the question about over 880 in history pancreatitis. This is a 1-year study. I think [indiscernible] longer study where we had more patients in the lower threshold. I think the trends that you see here would have maintained and been very significant. So the bottom line is yes. Most of the patients, the had events were in the high-risk category, but not all of them, a fair number had events in the under 880. And so based on this, we think the entire population benefits and this doesn't take into account when you look at these numbers, it doesn't take into account postprandial excursions. These patients are at risk every time they eat 3 times a day, [indiscernible] and falls in the triglyceride level. So that's not captured in these fasting levels and the epidemiology data clearly documents anything over 500 to put short risk. Maybe not in 1 year, but long term, these patients have to be treated for a very long time. And so overall, we're very happy with the data we think in totality, the way we design the trial have both primary prevention and secondary prevention really was the best designed to be able to look at the pancreatitis events.
The next question comes from the line of Yanan Zhu with Wells Fargo Securities.
Great. I wanted to add my congrats as well. Wanted to -- can you talk about for the hepatic fat fraction increase? How does it evolve over time? Is it still increasing at the end of the 1-year period? And do you expect it to continue to increase after that? And the other perhaps a question similar to the earlier question about monitoring, do you expect there might be monitoring requirement on this measure? And lastly, on the mechanism, I think the New England Journal paper today attributed this signal to [indiscernible] mentioning that [indiscernible] didn't have this signal, but olezarsen and [indiscernible] both have it? Any thoughts there?
Those are 3 questions. Let me see if I can tackle them all at once because it's all interrelated. First of all, we only had 2 imaging studies or imaging studies done in this group, baseline in 1 year. And so we don't have the luxury of having a middle one or a longer one. So the answer is we don't know what will happen long term. What we do have so far is a small number of MRIs at 2 years and what we're seeing so far is a stabilization and maybe a decline in the 80-milligram dose. So we think that this mechanism is related to the fact that olezarsen shifts these particles from the circulation to a congested liver. Remember, these patients have baseline elevation of hepatic fat 3x above normal between 13% and 16% already. So now they're getting another load, and so they have to manage that. And -- but there's a finite amount of triglyceride in the circulation. So it's not going to keep accumulating, right? Once you get out of the circulation, it's done. So our anticipation is that this phenomenon will quiet down and go away and we'll be able to look at this long term. So most likely reflects a distribution of lipid from the [indiscernible] to the liver. We didn't see any clinical consequences of this and it wasn't correlated with [indiscernible]. So right now, investors we can tell and from the hepatology consultants that we consulted is that this represents a noninflammatory accumulation of bland lipid that hopefully will just resolve with time as the patients get kind of holistic care of their diabetes, their obesity and their triglycerides.
Great. And monitoring?
No, no, monitoring doing MRIs in patients and given the [indiscernible], sorry, I forgot to mention that. it's not something that you do routinely. This is really a study technique. The simplest thing is liver function to ask for this. And if those aren't going up, you don't really need to worry about any serious things happening to the patient. So that's probably the most that will be required. We don't anticipate any imaging studies to be part of this going forward.
The next question comes from the line of Paul Matteis with Stifel.
This is Julian on for Paul. Congrats on the strong data. Another question on [indiscernible] elevation. I guess in the 80-meg arm, Sam, you talked about how it's not a progressive phenomenon. I guess any thoughts on having the vast majority of patients starting on 5 and then progressing to 80, if they're not responsive? And I guess just can you talk a little bit more about how important it is to get patients below that 150 mg per deciliter level to reduce risk in AP and improve long-term outcomes. Just looking at the data, both doses seem to do very well in getting patients below 500 and I know we don't have long-term data, but just curious on how you're thinking about longer-term data playing out and informing commercialization and clinical decision making.
Yes. On the choice of dose, I think you have to look at the totality of the patient's risk. They've just had a recent pancreatitis episode and they're running 2,000. You really want to get them down fast and robustly. If there stable and [indiscernible] not a lot, you might choose the 50-milligram dose. So I can see both of those being played out, depending on the patient's ultimate risk. So we do this for statins. If somebody is stable, we might start at the lowest dose and go up. But if somebody just had a [indiscernible] coronary syndrome, we started with [indiscernible]. So we have paradigms to manage that, and some of that will play into it the way we see about -- I think we need both doses though, to be able to address all of the needs that clinicians will have. Getting numbers to normal is a big deal. I mean, 54% of patients getting under 150 is unprecedented versus 1.2% in the placebo. That tells us it's extremely potent drug. Now for pancreatitis, 500 is the threshold. So we're very happy with the 85% to 90% of patients getting below that threshold. Getting them lower, of course, is going to be better, but that probably is not going to be our primary aim is to get everybody normal. First, we want to get everyone to 500. What we're seeing with TRYNGOLZA in FCS is that a substantial of our patients are getting into that normal range. So if it happens, great. And so -- but we're not going to actually target 150, but we'd love to see those numbers if they come up naturally with either dose.
The next question comes from the line of Luca Issi with RBC Capital Markets.
Great. Maybe, Sam, if I can circle back on the hepatic fat signal here. Can you just talk about whether you think that signal is related to the target more broadly? Or this is related to your drug specifically, I think the discussion here at American Heart. I think try to make an argument that this is related to your molecule and not the target as your competitor has not seen such signal. So would love to kind of hear what's your pushback to that. And then on A1c, if I capture it correctly, I think 3 goals of label sites HbA1c increases below 0.2%. However, I think today, the increase were a little bit higher than that. So wondering what's the kind of best way to rationalize why you're seeing maybe a little bit higher increase in A1C for this population versus FCS?
Sure. Well, I think a lot of people are not going to agree with the discussion. I think I can kind of just summarize it that way. And the reason I say that is if this wasn't seen with any other drug, you can think maybe it's old disarm related, but it was seen with the 50-milligram dose of [indiscernible], and it was in the same range as we're seeing here. So that would tell me that it's most likely target related and it kind of goes with the mechanism that I mentioned before, which is the triglycerides in the periphery, has to go somewhere. If you start with 1,200 milligrams per deciliter, you get to a whole gram per 100 per deciliter, that's about 60 grams after those that has to move out. And so it makes sense that some of it ends up in the liver and accumulates and then it's a finite phenomenon. So -- we don't have evidence right now that it's olezarsen-related. We have evidence that it's probably mechanism related. And that's I would probably just [indiscernible]. We need to see larger studies from the other compounds to be able to kind of be a little more clear on that. On the hemoglobin A1C, so this is an interesting phenomenon. It's probably related to the hepatic fat in some ways, right? When the liver gets this amount of energy, you can do 3 things with it, store it, you can convert it to ATP and burn it up or it can take the free fatty acids and they come into glucose and secrete them. So the patients that have diabetes already have insulin resistance. They can't manage this extra glucose somehow, and it goes up a little bit. But it goes up so little that it's not a clinically relevant issue. It's easily managed in these patients. In the patients that don't have diabetes, we don't see this phenomenon probably because they have this in sensitivity and they can manage the extra glucose. That would be my explanation why as a class effect, all 3 drugs, [indiscernible] had the same kind of glucose issue. We don't think this is clinically important because it's a small change. It's not like 0.5 or more where you have to start changing their medications. It has to be monitored, though, just like you would a typical patient with diabetes nothing special and it's probably a mechanism earlier also.
And the next question comes from the line of Myles Minter with William Blair.
Congrats on the [indiscernible]. Maybe just on the hepatic steatosis adverse events that are reported in the New England Journal article. I think there was like a numerical increase in those on as and I know you don't have cleaning calls to quite to the hepatic fat fraction, but maybe you can help me understand why the sites may have reported any imbalance there. That's the first one. And then second one is just talking to someone here should we maybe be just excluding diabetic patients from these trials I guess where I'm coming from is like is the only reason why you're saying the [indiscernible] because they needed to stay blinded and they couldn't actually adjust their underlying metformin or SGLT2 inhibitor treatment throughout the trial.
Yes. On the first question, what you're referring to is very small numbers. They're in single digits in hepatic adverse events I don't think we can read that there was anything into that. You're talking about 1 out of 100 patients, 2 out of 100 patients. So there really -- there may be some sort of metical differences, but those don't look like they're very different in terms of the overall significance. So I don't think those are necessarily imbalanced based on that table that you're referring to.
The other question was should we be treating diabetic patients?
Well, absolutely. We should be treating those are the highest risk patients. And there's no reason to exclude them. The hemoglobin is not really an issue. They have a lot more serious problems than a tiny change in the hemoglobin A1C. And the other part of this that we measured HOMA-IR and [indiscernible], which are indicators of insulin resistance and pancreatic function, and those have been in change. So nothing is changing in terms of their ability or diabetes situation. All that's happening is they're now producing a little more glucose and so these are the patients that probably need the most treatment honestly, because they represent 2/3 of the population and they're very high risk of pancreatitis. So I don't see this as a reason not to treat at all.
And the next question comes from the line of [indiscernible] with Barclays.
Since we are discussing about glycemia and also the hepatic fat fraction. Maybe I'll just ask a few more questions here. Just want to confirm, did I hear correct that you expect the initial target 1 million patients will be 2/3 will have diabetes? And then also, I don't know if you see any have you checked the hepatic fat fraction in the FCS patients? Any differences there? Is there any elevation there? And also related question is the [indiscernible] between the patient with diabetic and without diabetics, any differences there?
Let me take the last 2 first. [indiscernible]-- so we did not measure hepatic fat in the BALANCE study of FCS. We did measure it in the APPROACH trial with [indiscernible] and there those patients have thin their BMI at 24. They don't have a lot of liver fat. It's about 5% to 6%. And so these aren't the kind of patients that we're studying here that are much higher risk for having liver issues. So we don't know about balance, but when we did it in the APPROACH trial, there was about a 20% reduction with [indiscernible]. And so there was no reason to keep checking it in this population. So we don't know the answer to that. But the LFT stuff was pretty low. We didn't see any hepatic issues. So we don't anticipate that was a significant issue in those patients either. Sorry, what was your.
[indiscernible] diabetics.
Yes, we're starting to look at this in more detail. The initial look is that we didn't see any obvious differences in the hepatic fat in those -- we did look at some groups of those -- we didn't see any differences. But we have to do a lot more work on that to try to understand all of that a little more carefully with the different subgroups background therapies. There's a lot of baseline characteristics that we need to look at. And so once we get through all of this, we can be able to report more data on that coming down the road in the future.
Gena, we would expect a good portion, I would imagine about good 40%, 50% maybe of SHTG patients might be diabetic, I would imagine. But Kyle, not in his head, yes. So that's kind of where we are. But again, as Sam eloquently laid out, the -- the small increase in HBOC is manageable. We're not concerned about it. And with that, we're going to take 2 more questions.
The next question comes from the line of Mike Ulz with Morgan Stanley.
Congrats on the data as well. Maybe just a corn on the triglyceride thresholds. You mentioned around more than 50% of patients actually reached normal levels. I was just curious among those patients which started as sort of high-risk patients?
Yes. So the data on the exact regulatory levels of entry, we haven't looked at that in a lot of detail. You saw that most of the pancreatitis cases we know over we're going to be doing more work to define is there a threshold effect? Is there a percent effect in terms of who benefits and those results we don't have right now, we'll be able to get them for you down the road.
And commercially, Mike, those thresholds are very meaningful. Obviously, the data being so strong of being able to get patients below 500, 86% is very relevant here and 54% in the normal range. I think it just demonstrates the value and the quality of this data. And I think it's going to be really hard for anyone to match this, as Sam stated earlier. SP1 I think it's time looking at the clock for 1 last question.
Our final question comes from Yaron Werber with TD Cowen.
Congrats on really nice results. Maybe just 2 questions. Maybe, Sam, for you, one for Kyle. So One of the big debates was about primary prevention and of course, the numbers are extremely low. But encouragingly, you are seeing 3 events on primary events and placebo and one on olezarsen and so the question really is as you continue to evaluate over 2 years, do you expect that those numbers will increase? Or is everybody crossing over? And then for Kyle, I mean it looks like the initial you're going to be looking at 350,000 patients is the initial target population. So maybe, again, just given our survey that there's certainly going to be a very high uptake in patients with risk, but people want to use it broadly. why not [indiscernible] it with like a reticle price at that point?
So I can go first on -- that's a great question. The fact that we saw 3 and 1 the small numbers, but you can call it a 66% reduction. So it's consistent with the overall findings. And I think if we had done more patients a larger trial, that will continue -- as we go into the open label, of course, everybody is now on 80 milligrams of all olezarsen. So we won't be able to have any more randomized data. But we anticipate the very small number of events in the treatment arm to persist. We don't anticipate crossing over to a lot more cases. And we know this in many ways from our experience with TRYNGOLZA and FCS. Once they get on the drug, they stop having a vent. It's really dramatic. So we anticipate this 80% to 90% reduction in pancreatitis to persist the longer the patients can take the drug.
And in terms of the targeting strategy, the 22,000 HCPs that I referenced are HCPs that we've prioritized that see the highest volume of sHTG patients. So these are just patients that are above 500 and we can reach that with a couple of hundred representatives. That's the starting point. What I didn't expand on is how broad we can go with our omnichannel capabilities, our other marketing tactics, a nonpersonal promotion and other means to reach tens of thousands of HCPs to educate around the disease, around the need to treat and around the benefits of olezarsen. So we will go much further than beyond the audience of just the 22,000.
I think it's time to wrap things up. I'd like to thank everybody again for joining us. today on our call. We're very excited about the olezarsen opportunity and all the opportunities that lie ahead for IONIS, and we look forward to updating you all on our continued progress going forward. So with that said, folks have a great day. Thanks for joining us.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's presentation. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Special Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Special Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Olezarsen (Phase‑III CORE/CORE2) zeigt bis zu 72% Reduktion der Triglyzeride und eine 85% relative Reduktion adjudizierter akuter Pankreatitis‑Ereignisse (gepoolt). 86% der Patienten erreichten <500 mg/dL, bis zu 54% <150 mg/dL; Effekte wurden über 12 Monate gehalten. sNDA geplant bis Jahresende, Launch avisiert Q4 nächsten Jahres.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Regulatorik & Zeitplan: sNDA bis Ende des Jahres; Standard‑Review mit Zielzulassung/Launch Q4 nächstes Jahr; Priority‑Optionen werden geprüft.
- Kommerz: Aufbau eines ~200‑köpfigen Feldteams, Targeting von ~22.000 Top‑Behandlern; erwartete adressierbare Hochrisiko‑Population ~1 Mio., Gesamt >3 Mio.
- Preis & Dosis: Payer‑Feedback in Modellierungen bei ~$15.000–$20.000 p.a.; zwei Dosen (50/80 mg) geplant für klinische Flexibilität.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Wirksamkeit: Klinisch relevante Endpunkte neu bestätigt: 85% Reduktion von AP, NNT ≈20 (gesamt) und ≈4 (höchstes Risiko) binnen 12 Monaten; anhaltende TG‑Senkung bis Mo.12.
- Sicherheit: Asymptomatische Transaminasen‑Erhöhungen vor allem bei 80 mg, meist reversibel; moderate Steigerungen von Leberfett und HbA1c beobachtet, keine klinischen Komplikationen identifiziert.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Hintergrundtherapie: Ernährungsberatung und Begleitmedikation waren in den Armen ausgeglichen; der Effekt ist nicht durch Lifestyle‑Änderungen erklärbar.
- Hepatische Signale: Management erklärt Mechanismus (Verlagerung von TG in die Leber), sieht das Phänomen als eher transitorisch; routinemäßige LFT‑Kontrollen erwartet, MR‑Kontrollen nicht routinemäßig.
- Kommerz & Preis: Payer‑Workstreams laufen; Flat‑Pricing wahrscheinlich; Zugang zielt auf breite sHTG‑Population, Schwerpunkt zunächst Hochrisiko‑Patienten.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit für Aktionäre: Die CORE/CORE2‑Daten reduzieren maßgebliche klinische Risiken und positionieren Olezarsen für eine kommerziell attraktive Zulassung, womit IONIS erhebliches Umsatzpotenzial erhält. Bleibende Unsicherheiten sind die Leberfett/HbA1c‑Signale und die finale Label‑/Zulassungsformulierung sowie Preis-/Erstattungsverhandlungen.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to Ionis Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Wade Walke, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, to lead off the call. Please begin, sir.
Thank you, Chuck. Before we begin, I encourage everyone to go to the Investors section of the Ionis website to view the press release and related financial tables we will be discussing today, including a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financials. We believe non-GAAP financial results better represent the economics of our business and how we manage our business. We have also posted slides on our website that accompany today's call.
With me on the call this morning are Brett Monia, our Chief Executive Officer; Richard Geary, our Chief Development Officer; Kyle Jenne, our Chief Global Product Strategy Officer; and Beth Hougen, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us are Eugene Schneider, Chief Clinical Development Officer; and Eric Swayze, Executive Vice President of Research, who will join us for the Q&A portion of the call.
I would like to draw your attention to Slide 3, which contains our forward-looking language statement. During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations and beliefs. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially. I encourage you to consult the risk factors contained in our SEC filings for additional detail.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Brett.
Thanks, Wade. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's call. The third quarter was a watershed moment for Ionis as we made important progress advancing first and best-in-class medicines for several serious diseases, including in our core focus areas of neurology and cardiometabolic diseases.
Our first independent launch for TRYNGOLZA, the only FDA-approved treatment for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, or FCS, continues to build strong momentum. This performance reflects TRYNGOLZA’S compelling clinical profile, strong launch execution and the significant unmet need that we are addressing. Based on this performance and confidence in our continued success across the business, we are raising our 2025 financial guidance, including TRYNGOLZA revenues, which Beth will review in more detail shortly. TRYNGOLZA also recently received European approval, and we are pleased that our partner, Sobi, expects to begin bringing this transformative medicine to patients across Europe in the fourth quarter.
In August, the FDA approved DAWNZERA for hereditary angioedema or HAE, marking our second independent launch. This is an important milestone for people living with HAE and for Ionis. I am especially proud of the launch execution by our commercial team, which Kyle will further highlight in a few moments. In September, we reported positive top line results from 2 pivotal programs from our wholly owned pipeline, both of which were groundbreaking in their own right.
Olezarsen in severe hypertriglyceridemia, or sHTG, showed highly significant reductions in triglycerides and became the first medicine ever to show a significant reduction in acute pancreatitis in this population. And in neurology, zilganersen showed the first ever disease-modifying effect in Alexander disease, a rare and often fatal neurologic disease. These results reinforce the strength of our science and position Ionis for 2 additional independent launches next year. Together, these 2 programs, along with TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA represent significant breakthroughs for patients and the potential for multibillion-dollar revenue for Ionis.
And complementing our rich wholly owned pipeline is our partner pipeline, which continues to progress very well. By the end of 2027, we anticipate 4 key launches from our partnered pipeline, targeting both rare and highly prevalent life-threatening diseases. We expect these partnered programs will further expand the impact of Ionis discovered medicines and meaningfully increase total revenue for Ionis. With the strong momentum across our business, including our first 2 independent launches underway in advancing wholly owned late-stage pipeline and a robust partnered portfolio, Ionis is well positioned to deliver transformative medicines for patients year after year, driving sustained growth. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Richard.
Thank you, Brett. We're making excellent progress across our pipeline, reinforcing Ionis' ability to deliver on our mission of bringing transformational medicines to patients for years to come. Just last month, we reported positive top line results from the Phase III CORE and CORE2 studies of olezarsen in people with sHTG who had triglyceride levels substantially higher than 500 milligram per deciliter despite being on standard of care lipid-lowering therapies at baseline, putting them at risk of life-threatening acute pancreatitis.
In these pivotal studies, olezarsen demonstrated highly statistically significant and clinically meaningful mean reductions of up to 72% in placebo-adjusted fasting triglycerides at 6 months, the primary endpoint of these studies. In these studies, olezarsen also significantly reduced acute pancreatitis events, making it the first and only treatment to achieve this positive outcome in people with sHTG. Olezarsen achieved a highly statistically significant 85% reduction in adjudicated acute pancreatitis events. It's important to remember that the main goal of triglyceride management in sHTG is to prevent these AP events and olezarsen as the first medicine to demonstrate, it can do just that. We believe these unprecedented results position olezarsen to meet the substantial unmet needs of people with sHTG, a large patient population in great need for more effective triglyceride lowering to reduce the risk of potentially fatal acute pancreatitis.
In terms of next steps, we're looking forward to presenting additional data from the CORE and CORE2 studies at AHA on November 8. Following that, we are on track to submit our sNDA in the U.S. by the end of the year with additional global filings expected next year. And as Kyle will highlight, launch preparations are already underway, and we are moving with urgency as we look to deliver olezarsen to people with sHTG next year.
Turning our attention to zilganersen, our medicine to treat Alexander disease, an ultra-rare leukodystrophy that profoundly impacts patients and families who today have no approved disease-modifying therapies. With the positive Phase III results in hand, we are on track for another independent launch next year, and we expect this to be the first of numerous additional independent launches from our leading neurology pipeline. In our Phase III study, zilganersen achieved statistically significant and clinically meaningful stabilization on the primary endpoint of gait speed. This is an assessment of gross motor function as measured by the 10-Meter Walk Test.
At week 61, zilganersen showed a 33% mean benefit in gait speed versus control with a favorable safety and tolerability profile. Zilganersen also demonstrated consistent benefit across key secondary endpoints. These results represent the first time an investigational medicine has shown a positive disease-modifying impact in Alexander disease. We plan to submit a new drug application to the FDA in the first quarter of 2026, and we are also initiating an expanded access program in the U.S.
Turning to ION582, our investigational medicine for Angelman syndrome, the newest addition to our late-stage pipeline. Angelman syndrome is a serious, rare neurodevelopmental disorder that causes profound and lifelong physical and cognitive impairments estimated to affect more than 100,000 people. Earlier this month, at our Innovation Day, we shared additional 12- and 18-month data from the long-term extension portion of the HALOS study. Results from this study showed consistent and durable improvement on expressive communication over 18 months, exceeding what is seen in natural history while maintaining a favorable safety and tolerability profile.
Improvements were also observed across multiple other functional domains, including cognition and motor function, suggesting meaningful disease-modifying potential for ION582. As a reminder, the primary endpoint in our Phase III REVEAL study is expressive communication, reflecting what families have reported matters most to them. And just last month, the FDA granted ION582 Breakthrough Therapy designation, recognizing the encouraging results from the Phase I/II HALOS study and the significant unmet need.
Enrollment in the Phase III registration study is progressing well, and we remain on track to be fully enrolled next year with data in 2027. With multiple data readouts and regulatory milestones expected this year and next, our advancing pipeline underscores the strength of our science and our commitment to addressing unmet need in people with serious diseases.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Kyle.
Thank you, Richard. With our first independent launch gaining momentum, a second now underway and 2 more anticipated next year, our commercial team is focused on flawless execution to bring these important medicines to patients. In the third quarter, TRYNGOLZA continued to exhibit strong momentum as we reported $32 million in net product sales, reflecting a nearly 70% increase in revenues quarter-over-quarter. Our patient identification initiatives are proving effective. The breadth and depth of unique physicians prescribing TRYNGOLZA continued to expand through the third quarter, underscoring the positive experience of both clinicians and patients.
This demand also spans a broad mix of specialties with cardiologists and endocrinologists representing nearly 70% of prescribers and lipidologists and internal medicine providers making up the balance. This favorable provider mix will support awareness and familiarity when we expand into the broader sHTG patient population next year, assuming approval.
Access and coverage have also remained strong. To date, the coverage mix for patients on TRYNGOLZA is approximately 60% commercial and 40% government. Importantly, both clinically diagnosed and genetically confirmed patients have continued to obtain coverage through a growing number of formal policies or via the medical exception process. We're proud of TRYNGOLZA’S early momentum, but we know we're still in the early innings. The vast majority of the estimated 3,000 people living with FCS in the U.S. remain unidentified. As a result, we're continuing to focus on our patient finding efforts in HCP education.
Our customer-facing team has reached over 3,000 physicians and over 30,000 HCPs have been targeted through our omnichannel capabilities, further increasing awareness of FCS, expanding patient identification and educating on the potential benefits of TRYNGOLZA treatment. Backed by an experienced and high-performing team, we are well positioned to continue to take advantage of our first-mover position to bring TRYNGOLZA to patients in need. Building on our early success in FCS, we are preparing for a launch in the severe hypertriglyceridemia patient population. sHTG represents a large patient population, many of whom struggle to manage their triglyceride levels with current treatments.
In the U.S. alone, more than 1 million people have high-risk sHTG, defined as individuals with triglyceride levels above 880 milligrams per deciliter or above 500 milligrams per deciliter with a history of acute pancreatitis or other comorbidities. With a significant first-mover advantage and groundbreaking positive Phase III data in hand, as Richard just outlined, we believe olezarsen is well positioned to address the unmet needs of patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia. Our commercial team is making excellent progress as we prepare for an expected launch next year. To unlock the potential of olezarsen in sHTG, we plan to initially target approximately 20,000 HCPs in the U.S., who are high-volume treaters of high-risk sHTG patients and expand this outreach even further via our omnichannel capabilities.
Our commercial strategy leverages the strong foundation we have built with health care providers already prescribing TRYNGOLZA, many of whom manage sHTG patients. At the same time, we are broadening our reach to additional prescribers who treat sHTG patients. To support this effort, we are expanding awareness through targeted disease education and continued investment in our commercial infrastructure. With key field leadership now in place, we plan to scale the TRYNGOLZA field force to approximately 200 representatives ahead of launch. At the same time, we have begun engaging payers to ensure broad patient access at launch. We believe there is strong recognition of the value in treating sHTG given the potential to reduce the risk of life-threatening triglyceride-induced acute pancreatitis at the cost associated with treating these patients.
Now turning to DAWNZERA. The approval of DAWNZERA marked a major milestone for Ionis, and our team is energized and focused on executing a successful launch. We've built a top-tier commercial organization with deep experience in allergy and immunology, including an HAE. Within 10 days of approval, we shipped our first prescriptions and the first patient self-administered their initial dose. We're pleased to see strong early adoption of DAWNZERA with patients switching from prior prophylactic or on-demand therapies as well as treatment-naive patients starting on DAWNZERA. And the initial feedback from both physicians and patients has been very encouraging with clear early excitement around DAWNZERA. Notably, we are already seeing repeat prescribers.
The U.S. prophylactic HAE market is well established, yet many patients remain dissatisfied with their current therapies. Approximately 20% of patients switch treatments each year, highlighting the ongoing need for better treatment options. While educating patients and physicians and supporting transition from existing therapies will take time, we believe DAWNZERA with its differentiated profile and focused launch strategy is well positioned to meet this unmet need.
As with TRYNGOLZA and FCS, we are committed to providing appropriate and comprehensive support to the HAE community, including ensuring broad and timely access for patients who need DAWNZERA. We have established differentiated patient assistance and financial support programs. We are offering a free trial program, which allows patients in collaboration with their health care providers to determine if DAWNZERA is the right fit for them. For eligible commercially insured patients, out-of-pocket costs can be reduced to as little as $0. With this foundation in place, we are confident in the anticipated trajectory of DAWNZERA as we work to transform the treatment landscape for patients with HAE.
Now turning to zilganersen for Alexander disease. Zilganersen could deliver the first meaningful advance for patients and caregivers where there are currently no approved disease-modifying treatments. This program represents another important opportunity to extend our commercial capabilities. We will build on Ionis' long-standing partnerships with the neurology community and patient advocacy groups to support awareness, diagnosis and access. At launch, our focus will be on ensuring continued access for clinical trial participants to zilganersen, expediting access for diagnosed patients and improving identification of new patients, including enhanced genetic screening.
Additionally, we will be working to ensure treatment availability at appropriately equipped centers. With preparations well underway, we are confident that zilganersen can provide a first-in-class disease-modifying treatment option for patients and caregivers and opens the door to further strengthen our foundation as we advance our leading neurology pipeline. Our experienced commercial organization is already delivering strong results as reflected in the early momentum of both TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA. Building on this success, we remain focused on maximizing the full potential of these therapies while preparing to execute 2 additional launches by the end of next year, expanding Ionis' reach to even more patients in need of our medicines.
With that, I will now turn it over to Beth.
We delivered another strong quarter driven by continued commercial execution and disciplined financial management, which enables us to raise our financial guidance once again. Our results reflect accelerating revenue growth with strong contributions from our marketed medicines and sustained progress across our pipeline. We remain focused on executing our strategy, advancing our late-stage portfolio and maintaining the financial strength that enables us to invest in future growth.
In the third quarter, we generated $157 million in revenue, representing a 17% increase year-over-year. For the first 9 months of this year, revenue totaled $740 million, an increase of 55% compared with the prior year. As you heard from Kyle, the TRYNGOLZA launch continues to perform exceptionally well. We earned $32 million in product sales, representing a nearly 70% increase over the second quarter. Royalty revenues increased by approximately 13% to $76 million in the third quarter, anchored by meaningful contributions from both SPINRAZA and WAINUA.
As planned, total non-GAAP operating expenses year-to-date increased 9% year-over-year, highlighting our commitment to disciplined investment and driving operating leverage. Our sales and marketing expenses increased year-over-year, driven by our investments in the U.S. launch of TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA. R&D expenses decreased year-over-year as several of our late-stage studies recently concluded. Importantly, we continue to strategically fund our advancing pipeline with more than 2/3 of our total R&D expenses funding our late-stage programs. Based on this continued strong performance and fourth quarter outlook, we are once again increasing our 2025 financial guidance, our third consecutive increase this year.
We now expect to generate between $875 million and $900 million in total revenue for the year, an increase of $50 million versus our prior guidance. Our guidance reflects meaningful contributions from our commercial portfolio, including continued strong performance of TRYNGOLZA. We now anticipate TRYNGOLZA product sales between $85 million and $95 million for the full year, also an increase from prior guidance. Given the timing of approval, we expect DAWNZERA will provide a modest revenue contribution this year with a greater impact beginning next year.
We now expect an operating loss between $275 million and $300 million for the full year. This improvement includes our planned acceleration in investments to support commercial preparations for olezarsen and zilganersen following the strong Phase III data and anticipated launches next year. Additionally, we now expect to end the year with a cash balance of more than $2.1 billion, highlighting our strong balance sheet that will support continued investment to drive accelerating growth.
Our third quarter results demonstrate strong execution across our business. With 2 product launches now underway and more on the horizon, Ionis is well positioned to deliver transformative medicines to patients in need and achieve our goal of cash flow breakeven by 2028, driving long-term value creation.
And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Brett.
Thanks, Beth. The third quarter was marked by strong execution and accelerating momentum across our business. With two independent launches underway, continued pipeline progress and key regulatory milestones achieved, we are delivering on our strategy. The commercial organization continues to perform very well. The TRYNGOLZA launch is strong and the approval of DAWNZERA for HAE marked another important milestone with encouraging early feedback from physicians and patients, and positive Phase III results for olezarsen in sHTG and zilganersen in Alexander disease are paving the way for 2 additional independent launches next year.
Together, these achievements strengthen our foundation for long-term growth. With a deep pipeline, outstanding execution and a clear path to achieve cash flow breakeven in 2028, Ionis is well positioned to deliver transformative medicines for patients and accelerating value creation for shareholders.
Now before I move to the Q&A, I'd like to take a moment to recognize and thank Richard Geary for his tremendous impact on Ionis over the past 30 years. With his retirement at the end of this year, this will be his last earnings call with us. Richard has been a driving force behind our innovation, leading dozens of development programs and guiding 6 transformative medicines through regulatory approvals and to patients. His leadership, vision and unwavering commitment to patients have been instrumental in shaping Ionis into the company we are today.
On behalf of the entire Ionis team, I want to thank Richard for his remarkable contributions and his dedication to improving the lives of patients around the world.
And with that, we'll now open the call up for questions. Chuck?
[Operator Instructions] And at this time, we'll take our first question -- will come from Jessica Fye with JPMorgan.
2. Question Answer
Good Morning. I was hoping you could talk a little bit about how we should best think about the shape of the launch curve for olezarsen in sHTG. And I guess what I mean by that is kind of like in terms of the physicians you're targeting and the number of patients they cover, do you perceive that there's pent-up demand or almost like a warehouse effect where you could see rapid adoption the way we have in this obviously, much, much smaller FCS setting? Or if not, what is the right way to think about the shape of that ramp?
Yes. Thanks, Jessica. This is Kyle. It's a great question. First, I'll just mention that there's strong interest in trying to expand the use of TRYNGOLZA and interest to use olezarsen in the sHTG patient population. It's an ongoing question that we get from HCPs as we're interacting with them today. Our current target population of HCPs is about 3,000 that we're reaching with our existing sales force. We're going to expand that to reach approximately 20,000 HCPs. Those 20,000 HCPs are covering approximately 360,000 patients that have sHTG. Some of those are high-risk patients, meaning above 880 milligrams per deciliter or above 500 milligrams per deciliter with a history of AP.
Many of those patients are currently on standard of care treatments. So they're on fibrates and fish oils and statins and PCSK9s and other background therapies. So what we are expecting is that if those patients are on standard of care treatment and they're not getting to goal today, that there will be interest in using olezarsen in that population based on the Phase III data that we generated in CORE and CORE2. So that will be the beachhead in which we'll approach this, and we expect strong uptake based on the interest and what we've learned about the market thus far.
Your next question will come from Gena Wang with Barclays.
So maybe I will also ask one is olezarsen, CORE and CORE2 data since you have updated at AHA, we already have a top line data. Anything that will be concerning regarding, say, the acute pancreatitis events, if it's -- I know the rate ratio is super impressive, but you did have approved 2 studies. Would there be anything will be -- we should be paying attention to? Would that be well balanced between the CORE and CORE2 regarding the acute pancreatitis events? And also any other things we should be paying attention to? So that was one question.
And the second high level, I know you gave a peak revenue potential for DAWNZERA over $500 million. Do you have a view regarding, say, olezarsen and also Alexander disease?
Okay. Let's try those 3 questions, Gena. Let's try to go through them quickly, but thank you. So I'll start with the AHA presentation, then I'll turn it over to Kyle for DAWNZERA and Alexander disease. So we're very much looking forward to presenting the detailed data at American Heart Association in a prestigious late-breaking clinical trial session on November 8. Nothing to be concerned about, AP data is groundbreaking. And I think that people are going to really be impressed when we share the detailed data on the AP outcome, including the rapid -- how rapid the protection is against acute pancreatitis and how durable those effects are.
Remember, this was a prespecified statistical plan analysis of CORE and CORE2 purposefully because we want to ensure the maximum powering for a positive outcome, which was proven to be a very, very smart thing to do. CORE and CORE2 have been published on the baseline demographics. And what you see in the baseline demographics is that there's a higher triglyceride median amount in CORE versus CORE2, and that will reflect the few pancreatitis events in the study too. But you'll see all that data at the AHA, and there's nothing else to be concerned about. We're very much looking forward to it.
Again, groundbreaking results and the AHA will be a great venue. We're also encouraged that with where we are in the review process for a publication, no guarantees, but we're hoping for a simultaneous publication with the presentation if we can get that done. And then all the details that we can't get to in the presentation will be in the publication. So stay tuned for all that. Looking forward to it. Touch on DAWNZERA and Alexander.
Yes, I'll just touch on peak sales for each of the programs. So peak sales for DAWNZERA, as you referenced, are expected to be greater than $500 million. For olezarsen, our first anticipated blockbuster launch, we are expecting to be greater than $1 billion. And for Alexander's disease is greater than $100 million are the expectations.
The next question will come from Mike Ulz with Morgan Stanley.
Maybe just a follow-up on olezarsen and sHTG. Just curious if you have any updated thoughts on pricing. I know this is an area where you're doing some extra work. So just curious if there's anything there to share? Or if not, when we might expect a little bit more clarity on the pricing question?
Yes. Thanks, Mike. This is Kyle again. The work is ongoing. We do have the CORE and CORE2 data, the Essence data, and we've got a lot of work to go through with our information related to ER visits, hospitalization rates, number needed to treat, which is some information that will come out at AHA as well. So there's still a lot for us to pull together. The research will kick off, and we expect to have additional information next year for us to be able to make some decisions around in terms of final pricing recommendation.
I think what some early signals continue to tell us and is consistent with the research that we've done in the past is that this is a market of greater than 3 million patients and that payers are going to look at this market in terms of their total exposure to potentially covering olezarsen in an sHTG indication of greater than 500 milligrams per deciliter patient population. So we're still doing that work, and we will announce the final price upon the approval of the sHTG indication, similar to how we've done with the FCS indication as well as the HAE indication for DAWNZERA.
The next question will come from Yaron Werber with TD Cowen.
Congrats on a really nice quarter and hopefully, it should be very good next year as well. A couple of questions. Number one, just for AHA, when you're looking at -- when we're looking at the data, should we be expecting that it's the reduction in AP is going to be principally in patients with a history of AP? Or is there a chance that you're going to show potentially a prevention of new events in patients that did not have AP events in the past?
And then secondly, some of the other companies in the HAE space are actually beginning to talk that there's considerably more patients in the U.S. market. There -- I think some are mentioning as many as 11,000 patients and 75% on prophylaxis. I know you're mentioning 7,000. Maybe can you help us kind of maybe understand the difference a little bit?
Sure, Yaron. Thank you for the question. Kyle will address the market research and the prevalence in HAE in the U.S. Regarding HAE, I mean, American Heart Association meeting, AHA. So again, I don't want to get ahead of the details, Yaron. But what I can say is this. All of the research that has been done over the decades has indicated that the higher the triglycerides, the more AP events that you're going to get in a study, and that's exactly what we've seen in our study.
So the higher the triglycerides, the more AP events you're going to get in the study. And that will correspond to the data that we present at AHA, or there's going to be in the patients not only with AP above 880 milligrams per deciliter, also consistent with research, if you've had an AP prior event, your chances of having another one is higher. So that is consistent with the data that we will present at AHA. So you're going to see a lot of -- you're going to see more events in the high-risk patient population, as you would expect. So there's no surprises there. And that's actually very comforting because that means that all the work that we've done, all the research we've done is holding up and triglycerides are driving these AP events. Kyle?
Yes. In terms of the prevalence in the United States, we're still working off of the 7,000 estimated patients in the U.S. That's the information that we've documented and be able to work from up to this point. You've referenced that about 75% of those patients are on a current prophylactic therapy today. And so this is a switch market, and that's really the market that we're focused on is moving patients over that could be doing -- potentially do better on a therapy with a profile like DAWNZERA. And there are some patients that were on-demand therapy patients only that have added DAWNZERA up to this point. And we'll also get newly diagnosed patients as you're referencing. But yes, I'm not aware of an 11,000 number. We're still working off of the 7,000 population that has been addressable up to this point.
And Yaron, I'd like to come back to your first question, too. One point I didn't make that I think is very important is to remember that the AP data that we have generated in CORE and CORE2 is after only 12 months of treatment, right? So when you think about a cardiovascular outcome trial, when you're looking at outcome data, it's years of treatment. This is only 12 months. So we expect there to be even more AP events eventually in all segments of the sHTG population with longer-term observation, longer-term treatment. So this is a relatively short study, which makes our results even more remarkable.
The next question will come from Gary Nachman with Raymond James.
Congrats on all the progress. So TRYNGOLZA accelerated really nicely in the third quarter. Where are most of those additional FCS patients coming from? So how many physicians are prescribing right now? And maybe describe the percent genetic versus clinical that are diagnosed. And based on your full year guidance, you have that acceleration slowing a bit in the fourth quarter. Is there any good reason for that? Could you explain that?
And then just on the olezarsen filing for severe high trigs, any chance you can get a priority review for it, especially if it's going to be lowering the cost of the drug significantly. I mean you're still working through that, but it would be a significant drop. So I don't know if that's an argument that could be made to get it on the market sooner?
Gary, I'll take the second question first, and then Kyle can address your question about TRYNGOLZA. So our assumptions right now is a standard review, supplemental NDA by the end of the year, 10-month review. However, we will do -- we will pursue all avenues to potentially bring this medicine to the market as quickly as possible. So stay tuned for that. But right now, we're assuming a 10-month review. We don't see any reason why it couldn't be considered for other paths forward with regulators.
Yes. In terms of the FCS patient population, there are a couple of things that we've been doing. Number one is identification of patients and then you move them through the diagnosis and then the prescription. We've focused on those highest prescribing sHTG physicians, the first 3,000, right, that we've been working through throughout the balance of this year. And we've also supplemented that with some of our marketing and our omnichannel capabilities to drive more disease state awareness and an understanding about the need to treat patients with high triglycerides and specifically how to assess and diagnose FCS.
The clinical scoring tools, either the North America FCS scoring tool or the Moulin criteria are also driving the clinical diagnosis ability for these HCPs. So they're looking for these patients. They know these patients are in need. They want to get them out of harm's way of acute pancreatitis, and they're using the available tools and resources to either clinically confirm or genetically confirm these patients. The other thing I'll mention is on the payer dynamics, the policies are getting put in place to where it's a streamlined process for HCPs to be able to prescribe once they've made the diagnosis for FCS.
So I won't get into specific numbers around HCPs or the split between genetic and clinical confirmation. But what's going well is disease education is improving. The awareness of the need to treat continues to go up. And TRYNGOLZA is performing very well when HCPs are using it, and they're looking for more appropriate patients in order to treat with TRYNGOLZA because of the performance of the drug.
Q4?
For Q4, it's -- I don't want to say it's a slowdown. We took a look at a couple of things. One thing is the duration. It's 10 weeks as opposed to 13 weeks because we've got the holidays in there. And then also, we don't know the seasonality yet if there's some implications here at the end of the year because this is our first full year of the TRYNGOLZA launch. So we're just making sure that we're taking into account some of the unknowns as we're considering the guidance for the quarter.
And best of luck to you, Richard, on your retirement.
The next question will come from Jason Gerberry with Bank of America.
Just 2 for me. Ahead of CARDIO-TTRansform next year, I just wanted to get your latest thoughts, how do you maybe maximize the benefit of the data in combination with tafamidis if it hits stats to the disproportionate benefit of eplontersen and that there isn't sort of a free riding effect that happens for your competitor as it pertains to sort of the validated benefit of silencers and stabilizers together? And that's question one.
And then just question two, into AHA and the update on NNT, just wondering if you can contextualize as we think about the NNT, both in the all-comer and the high-risk group, if obviously, the NNT is more compelling in the high-risk group, but that's a small proportion of the overall population. How important is that to the overall kind of value proposition in the eyes of payers from your perspective?
Thanks, Jason. On CARDIO-TTRansform, as you know, it's the largest study ever conducted in TTR cardiomyopathy I mean, by far. And we will have the largest amount of data for combination usage as well as monotherapy usage in the study. And the combination usage is a key secondary endpoint in the statistical plan for CARDIO-TTRansform and as well. So how important, how valuable that will be once we launch eplontersen in TTR cardiomyopathy is to be seen, to be determined.
Obviously, the mechanisms are highly complementary in theory, and we expect to see added benefit over monotherapy in the study, but that remains to be seen and proven. But if anyone is going to be able to show benefit of combination usage and for that to drive value in -- resulting in driving value for the commercial opportunity for eplontersen, it will be this program. I don't want to comment on whether that provides tailwinds for other competitor programs and those sorts of things. We're focused on eplontersen. And we think we have the right trial design, we have the right drug, and we're very much looking forward to the data in the second half of next year.
We will be sharing some data on NNT in different subgroup populations in sHTG at AHA and if we can get a simultaneous publication as well. I think the results are going to be strikingly positive in both groups or in all the subgroups that we've looked at. But I don't want to get ahead of that data at this time, Jason. As far as the value for payers, I'll leave it to Kyle to comment on that.
Yes. I want to comment on the totality of the data and how the evidence is stacking up for CORE and CORE2, and how that will be interpreted by the payers, right? Reductions in triglyceride levels to the magnitude that we're seeing of up to 72%, for example, on top of standard of care. So these are patients that are being treated already that aren't getting to goal, that aren't getting out of harm's way of AP on the current standard. And by adding olezarsen, you're seeing significant reductions in triglycerides. An 85% reduction in acute pancreatitis is really incredible to see. And payers, I think, will react accordingly when they see that data.
Hospitalizations and ER visit data, the NNT data will just add value and will complement that. It will talk about some of the subpopulations. But overall, I think the quality and the totality of the data here is what's going to drive payer engagement and effective reimbursement here. Keep in mind that the focus here is to prevent a first AP attack from ever occurring. And HCPs understand that.
The guidelines represent that and HCPs are trying to treat the goal, and they just can't with the current existing therapies that are out there. The other thing that I'll mention is these are fasting triglyceride levels. And you're going to have postprandial spikes in these patients, even if they are between 500 milligrams per deciliter and 880 milligrams per deciliter that increases their risk of having an acute pancreatitis event. So that whole story and the comprehensive nature of the data that I just talked through, I think, is going to be the value story and the proposition for the payers.
The next question will come from Yanan Zhu with Wells Fargo Securities.
Congrats on the quarter. Maybe a couple of questions, one on DAWNZERA launch, one on WAINUA. Can you give a little more color on the early prescriptions for DAWNZERA? Are these from switching patients or newly diagnosed patients? And if it's switching patients to any pattern of the previous therapy? For WAINUA, there's also a sizable bump in the polyneuropathy revenue, looks like 25%. Is that due to the growing of the market via newly diagnosed patients? Or is that reflecting you taking share? And any updated metrics like new-to-brand numbers?
Yes, I'll start with the DAWNZERA launch. First, it's going very well. As we highlighted in the opening comments, both HCPs and payers, the feedback has been very positive. The commercial team has executed extremely well, getting product in the channel, getting the first prescriptions in, getting those patients on to treatment and patients self-administering with DAWNZERA, so the launch is going very well. It's very early, right?
I mean the PDUFA was August 21. We're a month or so into this launch. So I don't want to provide too many details or specifics at this point in time, but I'll just share with you that the receptivity by HCPs has been very strong. The profile of the drug, the data to support it, the label and specifically the switch data has been very valuable so that they can understand that they can move these patients over safely and effectively and get them started on DAWNZERA and have a positive experience there using our Ionis Every Step patient support program.
So I think all signals are very positive. We are seeing switches from all of the currently approved prophylactic treatments. We're seeing DAWNZERA added to on-demand treatments where patients weren't on a prophylactic treatment. And then we're seeing newly diagnosed patients as well. So I won't get into the details on the splits, but all signals are very positive so far with the early signs of the launch.
And then the bump in WAINUA revenue?
Yes, the bump in WAINUA revenue, again, so this is a growth market. And as we've said all along, it's about new patient identification, and that's predominantly where the demand is coming from in the third quarter for WAINUA. The product is performing very well in terms of quality of life improvements. Access is going very strong in terms of coverage, the majority of patients paying $0 out of pocket. We do expect continued growth with the identification of new patients, especially in the centers of excellence where these amyloidosis centers are using WAINUA very broadly for the polyneuropathy indication. And I think we just continue to be encouraged by AstraZeneca's execution around the launch and their focus on the program.
The next question will come from Myles Minter with William Blair.
First off, congratulations to Richard on his retirement, thoroughly deserved. The question is on hepatic fat fraction data in the core studies and if you can comment on that and if we'll see it. I've just been getting some questions considering you've got robust serum triglyceride reductions there, whether you're shunting maybe too much to the liver at any one time and it's accumulating there. And also, acutely aware that you have the WAYLIVRA data presented that actually showed reductions in hepatic fat fraction. So any sort of color on that metric would be helpful.
Yes, Myles, I don't want to get ahead of the AHA presentation because that is a secondary endpoint, so it will be covered in the presentation and publication. So we're going to present -- we're going to do a deep dive at AHA on the primary endpoint of triglyceride lowering, including both doses through 12 months, time courses, and those -- that kind of thing. You'll see the durability of triglyceride reductions. You'll see details on the acute pancreatitis, which is a secondary endpoint. And you'll see all the data listed out on all the secondary endpoints, including hepatic fat fraction. We'll also talk a little bit about the NNT that we touched on in the earlier question. So I don't want to get ahead of that. Let's go -- we're just a couple of weeks away from AHA, and let's just leave it there.
The next question will come from Luca Issi with RBC.
And Richard, congrats on a fantastic run and all the best on your next chapter there. Maybe if I can circle back on severe hyperriglyceridemia, Kyle and Beth. You have obviously a $1 billion-plus peak revenue opportunity for the drug that’s conservative. The reason why I'm asking is because if the TAM is truly 1 million patients, the price is $20,000 per patients, which seem consistent with your commentary, that implies like 5% penetration at peak, which again feels a little conservative to me. So I would love to hear you talk about some of the assumptions that went into that $1 billion-plus number that you have articulated.
And then maybe sticking on severe hyperriglyceridemia, what's the latest thinking on whether you're going to file just the 80 milligram, which is obviously the same dose approved in FCS versus filing both the 50 milligram and the 80 milligram to give docs more options to kind of tailor the dose based on the need of the patients? Any color there, much appreciated?
Thanks, Luca. I'll take the easy question. We're filing on both doses. Both doses look great. And we believe that dosing flexibility in the hands of cardiologists, endocrinologists and lipid specialists will be very well received once we get to the market. So that's that. And with respect to peak sales?
Yes. Luca, I mean, I keep referencing that this is -- it's a prevalent patient population, right, greater than 3 million patients. The high-risk sHTG patients, you've got approximately 1 million of that you were just referencing as well. I think we still have some unknowns here around the payer dynamics. We also have some unknowns around pricing dynamics in order to factor into these assumptions. What we felt comfortable with, I think, going into this and have been consistent all along is greater than $1 billion in peak sales is where we've landed up to this point. We're continuing to assess the market. We've got a lot of good learnings from FCS as well in terms of how the launch trajectory has gone here.
We're doing more market research to understand HCP and payer and patient perceptions around the sHTG marketplace. And we will provide updated information as we learn more and feel more comfortable and confident with the way the information comes together. But yes, greater than $1 billion is where we feel comfortable today.
The next question will come from Jay Olson with Oppenheimer.
Congrats on all the progress, and I'll add my best wishes to Richard as well. Beth, I know you commented a little bit about this on your opening remarks. But with your strong balance sheet, could you share your priorities for capital allocation, especially with regards to any external versus internal investments?
We're happy too. We do have a strong balance sheet, very healthy cash balance and expect with the increased guidance that we will maintain that as we go into next year and continue to execute on these launches as well as the olezarsen, sHTG and zilganersen launches next year. Our capital -- our top priority for capital allocation is for internal growth. We think that there's tremendous opportunity in our pipeline and behind these existing marketed products and the ones coming to market here shortly. So we will continue to prioritize growth for capital allocation. We'll do that with discipline as we've done historically, but that's where you should expect to see us using our balance sheet.
I think we have time for one more question.
Our last question for the day will come from Mitchell Kapoor with H.C. Wainwright.
Just wanted to ask, with an impressive 90% rolling into the open-label extension in the sHTG trials, can you name some of the more prevalent dropout reasons and whether there's any reasons that we should be cautious going into a launch because of some of those?
Thanks, Mitch. And I'm going to let Richard answer the final question of this earnings call. Any reasons to be concerned with dropouts in the CORE and CORE2 studies? Richard, anything you want to highlight?
Yes. So first, I would say the dropout rate was about half what we expected from the beginning, very well-tolerated medicine. I would -- there isn't actually any one issue that led to discontinuations. They varied across the study. Some of them had to do with personal reasons, moves, vacations, different things that needed to be taken care of pregnancies, et cetera. But there were -- and so I can't point to like a main reason. And for that reason, I'm very bullish on this medicine in terms of its tolerability and safety.
Congrats, Richard.
Thanks, Richard. Thanks, Mitch. Thanks, everybody, for joining us and participating in our call today. We really do look forward to building on the remarkable momentum that we've achieved this year so far and for years to come and sharing additional updates along the way.
Just as a reminder, the detailed data from the landmark Phase III CORE and CORE2 studies for olezarsen will be presented for sHTG, will be presented during a late-breaking session on November 8 at AHA. We encourage you to listen in to our webcast. Until then, thanks for participating, and everybody, have a great day.
Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz Q3: $157M (+17% YoY)
- Umsatz 9M: $740M (+55% YoY)
- TRYNGOLZA Q3: $32M Produktverkäufe (≈+70% QoQ); Jahresprognose TRYNGOLZA $85–95M
- Guidance 2025: Gesamterlöse jetzt $875–900M (Anhebung um $50M)
- Ergebnis & Liquidität: operativer Verlust erwartet $275–300M; Kassenbestand Ende 2025 > $2,1Mrd
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Launch-Execution: Zwei unabhängige Launches laufen (TRYNGOLZA für FCS (familial chylomicronemia syndrome) und DAWNZERA für HAE) und Feldorganisation soll auf ~200 Repräsentanten skaliert werden.
- Durchbruch-Daten: Olezarsen in sHTG (severe hypertriglyceridemia) zeigte bis zu 72% TG‑Reduktion und 85% weniger akute Pankreatitis‑Ereignisse; zilganersen zeigte disease‑modifying Effekt in Alexander‑Krankheit.
- Partner-Engine: Partnerpipeline soll bis Ende 2027 vier wichtige Launches liefern; Kapitalpriorität liegt auf internen Investitionen zur Skalierung.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Finanzziel 2025: Umsatz $875–900M; TRYNGOLZA $85–95M; operativer Verlust $275–300M.
- Cash‑Ziel: Ende 2025 > $2,1Mrd; Ziel: Cash‑flow‑Break‑even bis 2028.
- Zulassungsfahrplan: Olezarsen sNDA (supplemental New Drug Application) geplant bis Ende 2025 (Standard‑Review angenommen, 10 Monate); AHA‑Präsentation 8. Nov 2025; zilganersen NDA Q1 2026.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Olezarsen‑Ramp: Management adressiert Form der Adoption; Initialziel ~20.000 HCPs (ca. 360.000 sHTG‑Patienten im Coverage‑Pool); Pricing‑arbeit läuft, finale Preisentscheidung nach Zulassung.
- AP‑Daten & Subgruppen: AP (akute Pankreatitis)‑Reduktion schon nach 12 Monaten; stärkere Ereignisraten bei höheren Baseline‑Triglyceriden; NNT, Hospitalisierungs‑ und ER‑Daten werden auf AHA detailliert.
- TRYNGOLZA‑Dynamik: Fokus auf Patient Identification (klinisch vs. genetisch), Abdeckung ~60% kommerziell/40% staatlich; Saisonalität und Kürze der Q4‑Periode wurden in Guidance berücksichtigt.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Starke kommerzielle Umsetzung und wegweisende Phase‑III‑Daten haben die Guidance angehoben und die Pipeline‑Monetarisierung beschleunigt. Für Aktionäre bedeutet das: reduziertes kurzfristiges Risiko durch wachsende Umsätze und ein klarer Pfad zu mehreren unabhängigen Launches, während Timing, Preisfindung und Erstattungsentscheidungen über den mittelfristigen Wert entscheiden.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Shareholder/Analyst Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to Ionis Pharmaceuticals 2025 Innovation Day. I'm Wade Walke, Head of Investor Relations. And it's great to see so many of you here in the room with us today. We'd also like to welcome those who are joining us today online via our webcast.
Every 2 years, we host this meeting in order to give you an update on the progress we're making on our goal to transform the lives of people with unmet -- severe unmet medical needs. And today, we are thrilled to showcase how we are leveraging our technology, our pipeline and our medicines to accelerate growth and to deliver transformative medicines to patients.
Before we begin, a brief note that we will be making forward-looking statements today that are based on our current expectations and beliefs. These are often associated with certain risks and uncertainties. And so our actual results may vary. And as our lawyers want me to say and like me to say, please refer to our SEC filings for additional risk factors on our company.
For the next few hours, you will get to hear directly from key Ionis leaders across the company who are spearheading the tremendous progress that we've made to date and are helping us to execute on our goals. We're also very pleased today to have with us Dr. Robert Fishberg. Dr. Fishberg is a respected thought leader and treating physician for patients with severely elevated triglycerides. His perspective will provide valuable real-world clinical insights into how these patients are treated. And as you can see from the agenda, we have a packed program for you today, covering topics from our recently launched medicines, our cutting-edge pipeline, our innovative technology, all of this accelerating growth of the company and helping us to deliver transformative medicines to patients.
So without further ado, I will introduce the CEO of Ionis, Dr. Brett Monia.
Good morning, everybody. Thank you, Wade. I too want to welcome everybody for joining us today, those in person. It's great to see so many people here live as well as all the folks that are dialed into our webcast. We really are excited, thrilled today to provide you all with a comprehensive overview of the remarkable progress that we're making at Ionis Pharmaceuticals today, and of course, we're -- what the future looks like. It's an incredibly bright future based on all the momentum we've created; it's going to drive accelerating value.
We're going to provide you with an update on -- across all key functions of our business, a comprehensive overview of our science and technology advancements, an overview of the remarkable progress we're making across the pipeline with game-changing medicines continuously being delivered on an ongoing basis, our commercial strategy. And where we are in our first independent commercial launches for Ionis in our history and what those -- in our plans for future launches as well as our financial strategy, where we are today and our clear path, and we're going to provide to you also a clear path, a road map to achieving positive cash flow in the near term with growing revenue.
So we've accomplished a great deal over the last couple of years. And that has laid out in a very strong foundation for Ionis to drive value, to drive momentum. We are very well positioned based on all of our success lately to drive accelerating growth and value for Ionis for all of our stakeholders, our patients and our shareholders. And that's based on one of the most incredible attractive pipelines in biotech. And we'll take you through that. And of course, that pipeline is based on innovation. That's why we call this Innovation Day. Innovation in our science, innovation in our clinic, clinical development programs, innovation in everything we do.
The pipeline, as I said, is delivering and is positioned to continue to deliver on an ongoing basis. And the profiles that our medicines are delivering in the clinic are setting us up for highly successful commercial launches. We're already off to a good start with our first couple of independent launches today, and we're well positioned to a high -- strong trajectory of very successful launches in the future. The profiles are important. Of course, we're also in the business typically of delivering first-to-market medicines, which also helps those launches very successfully -- to be very successful.
Today, we are fully integrated commercial stage biotechnology company with our first 2 independent launches in our history. And we've evolved to become a fully integrated technology biotech company to drive value, to drive great value for patients, to drive value for our shareholders, for all stakeholders to control our own destiny, if you will, and not rely on partners to deliver our medicines, our precious medicines to patients who are in need. And that is driving accelerated value, accelerating growth, sustained positive cash flow, which is enabling us to reinvest in the company.
It was about 6 years ago, give or take, that we set out on a new course for Ionis, when I moved into the role as Chief Executive Officer at Ionis. Building on the incredible reputation we've always had in leaders in research and early clinical development, I felt that it was time for Ionis to take the final step in our journey to become a leading biotechnology company by moving towards full integration, full commercial integration. And when we did that, we laid out a plan. Of course, we put together a plan. And we focused on and laid out 3 strategic imperatives that we needed to be successful in achieving to ensure great success. The first was to build a pipeline to prioritize and advance our wholly owned pipeline.
And number two was to build an experienced and innovative commercial organization to deliver our medicines independently to the market to patients that are in need. And three, was to expand and diversify our technology, our drug discovery capabilities to extend our leadership position in RNA-targeted oligonucleotide therapeutics. And doing all of this while strengthening our financial position.
When you lay out a plan, you put out milestones, right? We need to achieve this at this point, and this point in time, and I couldn't be more thrilled to say that we are exactly where we should be at this point. In fact, we've achieved or exceeded all of the key milestones in our journey to be a highly successful fully integrated commercial stage biotechnology company at this time. We've had a remarkable run over the last couple of years across our pipeline, our launches and our science and so on. Over the last 2 years alone, we've had 6 positive Phase III data readouts, enabling 4 approved medicines with more to come next year. Four of those approved medicines are now -- are independently owned by Ionis and independently launched by Ionis today. TRYNGOLZA for familial chylomicronemia syndrome and DAWNZERA as a prophylactic treatment for HAE.
We've also invested tirelessly in expanding our pipeline and growing our pipeline and based on the innovative research we do at Ionis with industry-leading first-in-class, best-in-class molecules that are in late-stage development. We've created 10 medicines that are in late-stage development today, setting us up for a steady cadence of Phase III data readouts as we have this year. We're going to replicate that next year and for many, many years to come.
We are highly focused that Ionis across our business, right? We need to take care of our precious resources and optimize the usage of those resources, and therefore, we are highly focused in all we do. That includes our drug discovery areas of focus.
We are focused on 2 therapeutic areas today, neurology and cardiometabolic diseases. Two areas where there is high unmet medical need. Two areas where our technology and our drug discovery work has proven value for patients, for shareholders and so on. In neurology, We, of course, have proven the value of our technology with breakthrough treatments that were conceived, discovered and developed at Ionis, like SPINRAZA, the first ever FDA-approved medicine for Spinal Muscular Atrophy in QALSODY, the first ever FDA-approved medicine for a genetic form of ALS.
The only medicine that has a disease-modifying impact on any course of ALS. And we have a whole pipeline of 11 medicines in neurology behind that and dementia in rare genetic neuro -- pediatric neurological diseases and so on. And it's the same for cardiometabolic -- in our cardiometabolic pipeline. We have a leading pipeline that's anchored by olezarsen for severe hypertriglyceridemia, a breakthrough treatment for people with super-high levels of triglycerides that are at risk for pancreatitis and pancreatic failure, a program that we expect to be FDA approved next year and launched independently by Ionis next year.
And other medicines in our cardiometabolic pipeline including pelacarsen for (Lp(a))-driven cardiovascular disease and eplontersen for ATTR cardiomyopathy, both on track. Cardiovascular outcome trials that are both on track to read out next year. So obviously, we're delivering an amazing pipeline for both severe, rare and highly prevalent diseases across these 2 therapeutic areas. I mentioned that our Phase III programs -- our Phase III pipeline is positioned to continue to deliver a steady cadence of Phase III readouts as we did this year. We're going to replicate that next year and for years to come. What's most important, of course, is getting these medicines to the market, to patients. And we are on a steady cadence to deliver FDA approvals and launches on a continuous basis.
We began our journey to commercial full integration with WAINUA, the medicine that we created at Ionis for TTR amyloidosis. And today, WAINUA is approved for ATTR polyneuropathy, and we're looking forward to cardiomyopathy Phase III data next year. That first step where WAINUA was planned to involve a co-development, more importantly, co-commercialization relationship with a trusted partner to help us build our commercial capabilities as we prepare for our first independent launches, right? That was the plan.
We partnered with a trusted partner, AstraZeneca, we've been working with for many years, and WAINUA is doing very well on the market today for the neuropathy indication. We're looking forward to the cardiomyopathy data next year. And that has set us up very well for our first 2 independent commercial launches as planned, TRYNGOLZA for FCS and DAWNZERA as a prophylactic for HAE. And those launches are off to good starts. Next year, we're looking for 3 -- we're looking to 3 more FDA-approved medicines and commercial launches, 2 from our wholly owned pipeline, olezarsen for severe hypertriglyceridemia and zilganersen for a rare pediatric disease called Alexander disease.
And thirdly, bepirovirsen from our partner pipeline for chronic HBV and the beat goes on. In 2027, we're expecting 3 more FDA-approved medicines and commercial launches, including pelacarsen, which I already mentioned, for (Lp(a))-driven cardiovascular disease, eplontersen for ATTR cardiomyopathy and sefaxersen, a complement targeted medicine for the treatment of IgA nephropathy and more coming after that, including our Angelman's program with these numbers, these really impressive numbers indicate is that Ionis will have launched 4 independent programs to the market by the end of next year.
And by the end of 2027, our partner pipeline will have launched 4 medicines by the end of 2027, really remarkable numbers. We couldn't be more pleased with the FDA approval of TRYNGOLZA for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, the first and only FDA-approved medicine for this severe rare genetic disease. This disease, of course, is associated with severely elevated super high levels of triglycerides. These patients suffer from all kinds of problems because of those triglycerides most -- the biggest risk, of course, is a potentially fatal attack of the pancreas, acute pancreatitis.
There's around 3,000 people with FCS in the United States today, and our Phase III program delivered a compelling Phase III -- compelling data from our Phase III program, showed substantial reductions in triglycerides, substantial reductions in outcome, acute pancreatitis with good safety and favorable safety and tolerability with the convenience of once-monthly self-administration. Not surprisingly based on the unmet need and the excellent execution by our commercial team to launch us off to a very strong start. Patient feedback has been very positive as has been HCP feedback. We're going to hear some of that later this morning.
And then what's coming, of course, is even bigger for TRYNGOLZA. We're going to refer -- I'll refer to this now as olezarsen until it gets approved, and we'll call it TRYNGOLZA. Olezarsen is positioned to target a highly prevalent disease, severe hypertriglyceridemia, sHTG, more than 3 million people in the United States suffer from severe hypertriglyceridemia defined as triglycerides 500 and above with over 1 million that are we call high-risk patients, patients that are high risk for acute pancreatitis.
We announced groundbreaking results in September for olezarsen in severe hypertriglyceridemia, highly statistically significant reductions of triglycerides on top of standard of care, 72% mean placebo-adjusted reductions in triglycerides on top of standard of care, never been shown before in this patient population in our core Phase III study and 85% reduction in acute pancreatitis, a first, another first for Ionis demonstrating the clinical benefit of lowering triglycerides in sHTG.
We are marking -- we are working around the clock to deliver olezarsen for this blockbuster opportunity to this patient population around the clock. We're going to take advantage of our first-mover advantage by doing so. And we're looking forward to getting the sNDA filed by the end of the year with an anticipated launch in the second half of next year, assuming FDA approval. We're also looking forward to presenting the full data at the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions in November in the clinical trial late-breaking session, a highly prestigious session at the AHA. We're honored to have been selected for this very important presentation.
We're also very pleased with the on-time approval this year of DAWNZERA as a prophylactic treatment for hereditary angioedema, the first and only RNA-targeted medicine for the prophylactic treatment of hereditary angioedema. A mechanism of action that is resonating extremely well in the physician community. There's about 7,000 people with hereditary angioedema in the United States today. And we recognize the fact, of course, that there are prophylactic treatments out there today to prevent HAE attacks in this genetic -- severe genetic disease population.
But what we also know is that patients are very unsatisfied with their current treatments. And HCPs that manage these patients are recognizing that based on the emergence of medicines like DAWNZERA. DAWNZERA has a profile to address the unmet needs of patients. Patients are looking for better efficacy, fewer attacks, better tolerability, and better convenience. And DAWNZERA is positioned to check every -- all 3 of those boxes. Remarkable efficacy, great tolerability and the convenience of every 4-week or every 8-week subcutaneous cell administration using a simple autoinjector. So we're pleased with the approval. The launch is underway. We're in the early innings with DAWNZERA, but we're very encouraged by the feedback we're getting from the community and how the launch is going so far.
And Kyle Jenne will provide you with an update on the TRYNGOLZA FCS launch, and the DAWNZERA HAE launch later this morning. September was a heck of a month with the Phase III data that we announced, the groundbreaking results we announced for severe hypertriglyceridemia. And we're also incredibly proud of the Phase III data that we announced for zilganersen, a game-changing disease-modifying medicine for a rare pediatric disease called Alexander disease. This disease is a genetic disease. It's a rare severe neurodegenerative leukodystrophy that is usually diagnosed in the first couple of years of life and is almost always fatal. There are no treatments of the disease-modifying treatments available for Alexander disease.
So obviously, these results are unprecedented. And obviously, we have first mover advantage here, what's more importantly is we have a medicine that's going to change the course of Alexander disease for the families, the mothers, the fathers, that manage these poor children. We're looking forward to presenting the full data or at least I shouldn't say the full data, some of the data at the CNS meeting later this week. I think it's Friday or Saturday of this week. And then the full data at medical meetings next year with publications planned.
We're also working around the clock to submit our NDA as quickly as possible and to launch next year. And this is, again, with sHTG for olezarsen, this represents a second independent launch for Ionis next year. Our independent neurology pipeline is growing and delivering. And it's a high priority for Ionis. Right behind zilganersen is another potential game-changing medicine, ION582, a promising investigational medicine for Angelman syndrome, a rare neurodevelopmental genetic disease that afflicts more than 100,000 people in major geographies. We think we have a medicine that can change the course of this disease in ION582. We presented last year at multiple Angelman conferences, some really encouraging data, positive results from our Phase I/II study called HALOS, which we demonstrated consistent and meaningful benefits on clinical measures of the course of the disease across essentially all measures of disease progression.
But I'm also -- what we are also very pleased about is that all the patients essentially in that Phase I/II study rolled over into a long-term extension. And now as we reviewed the data at 6, 9, 12, 18 months, the drug seems to continue to perform well. Supporting the profile of this drug as a disease-modifying treatment for Angelman syndrome and our decision to move into Phase III development. Holly Kordasiewicz will present you some of that data from that long-term extension later this morning. Next steps are to -- well, first of all, we're pleased that we initiated Phase III development enrollment in June of this year, the REVEAL study. We want to complete enrollment next year and then have data in 2027.
The Ionis wholly owned pipeline has delivered groundbreaking results over the last couple of years, as I just took you through and is positioned to continue the delivery of meaningful value-creating events going forward including next year from our cardiometabolic pipeline, we're looking forward to the approval of olezarsen for severe hypertriglyceridemia and our first independent launch in a prevalent disease.
We're also looking forward to starting Phase II development for ION775 from our cardiometabolic pipeline. This is Ionis' first-ever siRNA discovered using Ionis know-how, Ionis chemistry, Ionis engineering. That drug is now in Phase I development, and we're positioning 775 as a follow-on to olezarsen. It's hard to beat the efficacy of olezarsen. The bar is incredibly high. What we're focused on for 775 is to allow us to dose semi-price a year or less treatment. And Sam Tsimikas will take you through some of the Phase I clinical data we're sharing with -- we've seen for ION775.
And then in neurology, of course, is the approval of zilganersen next year. And the launch of zilganersen, our first independent commercial launch in neurology, the Angelman program completed enrollment, as I mentioned. We're also looking forward to several -- or at least 2 key mid-stage pipeline readouts, prion and our alpha-synuclein program in multiple system atrophy, which if any of those -- either of those are positive, they'll advance into Phase III development. And we're also looking forward to initiating a brand-new clinical study from our wholly owned neurology pipeline in Dravet syndrome. And again, Holly will take you through our rationale for moving into this disease and our plans.
And folks, that's only our wholly owned pipeline what I've been taking you through. Layered on top of this is an amazing, a remarkable phase -- late-stage Phase III pipeline from our partnered pipeline. Next year, we're expecting 4 Phase III readouts from our partner pipeline, the first half of next year, bepirovirsen for chronic HBV, pelacarsen for (Lp(a))-driven cardiovascular disease, highly prevalent diseases, millions of people with high unmet need. And then in the second half of next year, eplontersen for ATTR cardiomyopathy and sefaxersen, a complement targeted medicine for IgA nephropathy. These programs are incredibly important for patients. These programs are incredibly important for all stakeholders in Ionis and that the economics to Ionis is really, really attractive, allowing us, if successful, to continue to invest in our research, our pipeline and our independent commercial launches.
And Beth will provide you with an update on why this pipeline is so helpful as we work towards financial sales efficiency and positive cash flow. So I've taken you through now in our journey to be a leading commercial stage fully integrated biotechnology company by focusing on a high level on how we're prioritizing the wholly owned pipeline and how we're independently bringing our medicines to the market ourselves. And you'll hear more about that later. We're also making great progress in expanding and diversifying our drug discovery capabilities. I'm so proud of the work we're doing in research today. I just want to touch very briefly on the progress we're making here before I close.
We're focused on 3 areas to expand and diversify our science, drug discovery capabilities, new platforms enhancing our ability to target new tissues and cell types, targeted delivery. And then thirdly, expanding our therapeutic opportunities based on the science that we create. We're making great progress in expanding our capabilities on new platform technologies, including, as I mentioned, first Ionis engineered siRNAs are now in the clinic for indications where -- or opportunities where we think an siRNA might have advantages over an antisense approach.
New chemistries such as NMA chemistry, which are supporting annual dosing for CNS diseases administered intrathecally. And new approaches that are allowing us to overcome the blood-brain barrier, so further extend our leadership in CNS diseases by administering our drug subcutaneously or intravenously. We're making great progress here. First candidates are coming. Holly is going to give you an update on all this great progress. We're also making great progress in gene editing as well. Targeted delivery to open up new tissues, new cell types to tackle new diseases.
We're focused on cardiac myocytes and skeletal muscle to strengthen our leadership in cardiometabolic diseases and in neurology moving into neuromuscular diseases. We have candidates coming for neuromuscular diseases, we're expecting our first clinical start for a cardiac myocyte target with a partner with an Ionis program coming right behind that for heart failure indications. And we're making great progress in the blood-brain barrier as well as I already mentioned.
And all of this is strengthening our ability to tackle more diseases in related areas, in neurology, neuromuscular diseases and in cardiometabolic diseases targeting the cardiac myocytes directly, not just relying on risk factors to derive from the liver and tackling indications like heart failure. We're also making great progress in opening up new potential therapeutic areas. We're looking forward to our development candidate to be approved for a pulmonary indication by the end of this year as well.
So to close, I'd like to leave you -- close my introduction, I'd like to leave you with a few take-home messages. First, we've had an incredible run over the last couple of years, creating a very strong foundation for Ionis to launch off from to drive accelerating value. We are in accelerating value creation today. We've just begun. We've just scratched the surface. There's so much more coming based on how our pipeline is continuing to deliver based on the value we're creating from our independent commercial launches and based on the value from our independent pipeline. And this is going to provide substantial and sustained value creation for years to come based on, and I showed you what's coming, a steady cadence of transformational medicines to reach the market for serious diseases for many years to come.
So thank you, and I'd like to now hand it over -- the stage over to Dr. Sam Tsimikas, Senior Vice President of Cardiometabolic Drug Development at Ionis.
Well, good morning, everybody. Thank you, Brett. Well, it wasn't that amazing presentation. Hard to keep track of all of that. Thank you so much, Brett. And I'm very happy to be here with you today. I've had the privilege of running the cardiovascular franchise for the last 11 years. And I can say that this is the most exciting time since I started. In that last 11 years, I think we've laid the foundation for where we are today and what I'm going to show you today, which is that we are, I think, arguably a leader in the cardiovascular arena as far as the industry goes. And I hope to be able to convince you of that when we go through our portfolio and some of the drugs that we have developed over the last 10 years.
So let me go and start out and give you some of the tenets of how we got here over the last decade or so. We really based our portfolio on 4 tenets. One is that we want to target major cardiovascular diseases, which are the leading cause of mortality in the world. We are very well positioned to have a steady cadence of drugs, late stage, mid-stage and early stage to achieve those goals. We have led the field in triglyceride-mediated disorders. We've started with FCS. We understood that. We developed a drug for it, and we finally approved those drugs. And now we will continue that legacy of remaining the leader over the next decade for triglyceride-driven diseases.
And finally, I'll show you some evidence that we continue to innovate our cardiovascular franchise portfolio. We'll go beyond the lipid disorders; we're going into the myocardium and we expect to be very well positioned in the industry in the near term and also over the next 5 to 10 years with many of these indications. Now you know about TRYNGOLZA. This is Ionis' first independent commercial medicine. We were very pleased with the FDA approval for FCS. That was about a decade of work to get to that stage, and we finally achieved it. However, we're not resting on our laurels for this indication. About 5 years ago, we set a program in motion to have -- expand this indication into severe hypertriglyceridemia, which is a highly prevalent disorder with at least 3 million people in the U.S. and tens of millions of people globally with elevated triglycerides.
And as you heard from the top line data, which I will review for you briefly when we get to the next section, we were very pleased with our top line core data that demonstrates the ability for us to go beyond a rare indication to a broad indication and have the ability to manage that as an Ionis-owned medicine. Now the cardiovascular franchise right now consists of 7 assets, 2 are wholly owned, 3 are partnered and 2 are preclinical that are coming to the clinic shortly.
Let me take you through this on the right side. We're going to talk a lot about olezarsen today and the expansion into severe hypertriglyceridemia that has just finished its Phase III trials and is ready for a regulatory submissions.
As Brett mentioned, we are now expanding our expertise in triglyceride disorders with ION775. This drug represents the very first and most advanced liver-targeted siRNA that Ionis has developed. And I'll be pleased to show you in a little bit data from our Phase I trial on this drug. We will use this to develop additional capabilities for expanded duration of dosing in severe hypertriglyceridemia and other triglyceride disorders depending on the ultimate profile of that drug.
Now for partner medicines, Brett already mentioned these, but I want to highlight a couple of things, eplontersen is undergoing a Phase III outcomes trial for TTR amyloidosis. That trial is being run by Ionis with our partners at AZ, but we are doing all the heavy lifting for earning that trial. Along with our olezarsen experience, we have now run 2 very large Phase III outcome trials, and we plan on leveraging this capability to be able to run any outcome trial in cardiovascular disease that we choose to in the future.
Pelacarsen will be reading out in the first half of next year. This is also our drug that we developed many years ago, that's licensed to Novartis as you all know. This will be a first of its kind medicine, if approved, or a highly, highly prevalent disorder, which is elevated Lp(a). And we look forward to the results of that trial. That drug is a couple of years or more ahead of anybody else. So if the trial is positive, we anticipate this to be a historic trial as far as trials go in the Annals of Medicine. I also want to point out to you 2 assets here that have code names that have undisclosed targets, but we are going beyond the lipid disorders and TTR amyloidosis into the myocardium.
We will be leveraging our technologies to deliver drugs to the myocardium or myocardial diseases and our plan is to be both first and best-in-class with these 2 compounds that you see on this list.
Okay. So to set the stage for what I will talk about later, I'd like to invite Dr. Robert Fishberg to the stage to go over the unmet needs and the treatment landscape for severe hypertriglyceridemia. Dr. Fishberg, is an eminent cardiologist and lipidologists. He has run a very large referral practice in all lipid disorders. He's particularly interested in triglycerides, and he has had experience running clinical trials on all the lipid disorders, including with statins, PCSK9 inhibitors, CETP inhibitors, (Lp(a))-lower drugs and triglyceride disorders, and I think he's going to give you a flavor of what these patients suffer from and what the clinical need is. And we look forward to your presentation.
You've answered this way. Great. Well, thank you for having me here today. It's a pleasure with such an esteemed group. And I'm a cardiologist in New Jersey. I work in Atlantic Health, Overlook Hospital, Morristown Hospital, you may be familiar with them. And I've been in practice since 1989. I've done over 30 years of clinical research on all different areas of cardiovascular disease, particularly with lipids.
And I want to share my expertise with you and see if I could elucidate what we found, particularly in the area of triglycerides. This has been, again, an area which we had very little success. We're very good at lowering LDL. We're working this LPA drugs with triglycerides something that we've had very poor successful over the years. These are my disclosures.
So looking at the FCS significant patient burden unmet needs. And it's usually -- this is usually a genetic disorder, familial chylomicronemia syndrome is easily -- it's caused a loss of LPL, which is one of the key enzymes in the body and it's usually 5 genes that causes. And often, you need to have 2 genes to cause the syndrome. But actually, in many patients, you may be 1 gene and you may diagnose it by a clinical syndrome. And it's usually -- triglyceride levels are usually over 880 over -- often over 1,000, and it's usually 10 to 100x greater than normal.
Normally, when you eat -- soon after eating your triglycerides level go down, these patients maintain very high levels of triglycerides, and it causes acute potentially fatal pancreatitis, debilitating chronic syndromes. And again, these patients are sometimes hard to diagnose, they have -- often will have brain fog, they'll have the Lipemia Retinalis, [indiscernible] have enlarged liver and spleen.
And again, acute pancreatitis associated with severe abdominal pain, nausea, and vomiting. They'll have eruptive xanthomas. Often, this -- it looks like a rash, we think this might be a drug reaction. But when you see this is a very specific finding for this disease. And again, I've seen this in a number of patients who triglycerides are routinely over 1,000. High disease burden, meaning a long-term complication, increased psychological stress reduced quality of life. I'll go into that a little more when I show some patients. But again, if you can imagine, if you suffer from severe abdominal pain, recurrent pancreatitis, you're worried any time you have any abdominal pain, you worried this could be your next trip to the hospital and it's these patients live in fear of recurrent pancreatitis.
And we think there's between 1 to 13 people per million with FCS. Again, depending if the diagnosis purely on genetic terms or clinical terms, that's why there's a variation in the number. But I think this is probably a very underdiagnosed disease. Most physicians don't do genetic testing. And again, these patients are often misdiagnosed when they come to the hospital, even with the acute pancreatitis. Now this is a pivotal study, and this is the balance trial, and this is looking at the initiation of olezarsen 80 milligrams, 6 and 12 months. And again, it shows significant triglyceride reduction at 6 months compared to placebo in FCS patients and further reduced for 12 months.
And what's remarkable is this is the first trial that actually showed reduction of pancreatitis. Now we have other drugs that reduce triglycerides, but no drug has ever shown reduction of pancreatitis. Again, the -- we recommend [indiscernible] or typically over 880 to reduce triglycerides to prevent pancreatitis. But it turns out all the other medications we have, none of them actually have ever been shown to prevent pancreatitis. So again, this is a breakthrough medication, the first time we actually see reduction in pancreatitis and 84% reduction in all hospitalization. And again, substantial reduction in days spent in hospital compared to placebo and had a very safety and tolerable profile was excellent.
Again, you can't imagine what it's like for these patients to suffer acute pancreatitis and just the physical and the psychological [indiscernible] on them and their families. Now when you suspect it, there's actually 2 ways of doing genetic and clinical confirmation. Clinical confirmation is with a couple of scores that the North American FCS score and the Moulin scores, but either one will clinically diagnose it. And genetic -- again, very few physicians actually do genetic testing. But when you do it, it's remarkable what you find. And again, in my clinical experience, I've diagnosed patients with clinical and with genetic confirmation with this diagnosis. So that's why there's a variability in the numbers.
I think it's probably more common than originally thought if you look combined genetic and the clinical confirmation. Again, looking at the scores, its high triglycerides, no secondary factors. Again, you want to eliminate patients who -- any alcohol use. Pregnancy, I had a patient recently in the hospital, her triglycerides went to 3,000, she did develop acute pancreatitis. So pregnancy is one of the things that caused increase in triglycerides. Honestly abdominal pain, and again, they don't have Familial Combined Hyperlipidemia.
And the key thing with these patients is they don't respond to gestalt methods. So even though we may try Fibrates, Niacin, fish oil, none of these really have much of an effect or statins. And they -- Again, the onset of symptoms important, many of these patients have had symptoms since there were young adults, even teenagers with recurrent pancreatitis.
So a score over 10, 10 or higher FCS is likely. And we -- in my clinical practice, again, I'm in a large hospital system with 300 locations, 6 hospitals, 16,000 physicians over 400 advanced practice specialists and about 1 million covered lives. And I was actually had a database of everyone in the system who had triglycerides over 500, so I was actually able to recruit or look at patients in the entire health care system. That's one of the reasons I was able to recruit a number of patients who are candidates for this medication.
So let me go through 2 case studies. And I have actually 9 patients on the medication, all confirmed either genetically or clinically some with both. So case #1 his triglycerides were over 1,200. And this patients had 20 events, so really his whole life, he suffered from acute pancreatitis. He developed diabetes. And one of the things about having pancreatitis that actually could destroy their pancreas and actually could cause diabetes and had very little response to gemfibrozil fibrate or Vascepa, which is omega-3, his genetics, he was homozygous. That means they had 2 genes for one of the causes of FCS LMF1, and also had APOA5. So actually 3 genes associated with the syndrome. And interesting, TRYNGOLZA reduced his triglyceride to 381 and had no further episodes of pancreatitis. Again, this is only in the first few months is a relatively new drug.
So remarkably, his triglycerides reduced from 1,200. And he's had higher levels than that down to 381, which seems greater than I had expected from the clinical trials. Case 2 was another patient and his triglycerides were 1,400. I think he's had triglycerides as high as 3,000 recurrent pancreatitis. He's actually had 9 episodes. He also developed diabetes and had minimal response to fibrate, Vascepa. His Moulin Score was 13 and his triglycerides went from over 1,400 down to 232 with no pancreatitis. And his -- again, his response to this when he saw his numbers that he was astonished. Again, this is someone who suffered from recurrent pancreatitis, recurrent abdominal pain, he would often be riding in pain, going the hospital, prolonged hospitalizations.
And when I spoke to him about this, it was really life-changing that he can actually go about his life and hopefully not worry about every stomachache, could this be another episode. Again, pancreatis can be a fatal event. So he's just happy to go on with his life. And hopefully, by taking TRYNGOLZA, he won't have further episode. Again, all these patients have to be on diet, exercise the usual things we do. And we -- again, they have to be on -- often on a very low fat diet. But again, even with all that, with the medicine we have available, low-fat diet, these patients still will have triglycerides hovering around 1,000.
So look -- let's look at severe hypertriglyceridemia disease overview. So these are patients who have triglycerides over 500. There's actually a very common -- in the U.S. population, this occurs 1% to 2% of the time. And actually, I looked at our system at Atlantic Health and I had 1 million patients, I saw like about 500,000 were tested for triglycerides. And about -- at least in this population, again, it's a -- just going through the medical records, we had about a few thousand patients who had high triglycerides over 500.
Again, I didn't go through everyone want to see what the other disease is, but it is at least in Atlantic Health, this was a relatively high, similar to what is predicted by enhanced data. And this is these patients who have triglycerides over 500, typically over 880 are at increased risk acute pancreatitis. And actually, some of them -- and this group also be at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.
Again, as a clinical cardiologist, I'm very concerned about reducing their risk for heart attacks and strokes. So these patients in this group, not only are at risk for pancreatitis, are at risk for ASCVD. As you may know, we could reduce LDL that patient still have residual risk. So anything we could do to reduce residual risk be it reducing LP(a), reduce the triglycerides. We're trying to find avenues to that care.
And this is multifactorial combination triglyceride variants, lifestyle obesity, high-risk morbidities, including type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome and MASH. MASH, if you don't know, is Metabolic Associated liver disease. It's usually associated with Steatohepatitis associated with fatty liver. And this is a very common problem, again, something that we're trying to address in many patients, reduce the risk of fatty liver, which could lead to cirrhosis. So these patients are at risk for that, too.
And again, if you look at the treatments we have available fibrates, omega-3s, none of which are that successful that reduce triglyceride -- typically very high triglycerides, these drugs appear to be potentially less effective. And this is prevalence is about 3 million in the U.S. population, again, associated with stroke, heart disease, again, pancreatitis, diabetes, abdominal pain, obesity and MASH.
So what are the guidelines for clinical treatment of high triglycerides. Again, these patients, if triglycerides over 500, we recommend reducing triglycerides. But what we have currently is just not very effective. Even though the guidelines that says consider using omega-3s, using fibrates, these drugs reduce fibrates about 20%, 30%. Omega-3s may have some benefit above and beyond the triglyceride lowering.
But again, it doesn't reduce triglycerides very effectively, typically if their triglycerides are high. statins, as a clinical cardiologist, I have many -- most of my patients on statins, but they only reduce triglycerides 10% to 20%. And none of these drugs affect pancreatitis. Niacin is very attractive because it does raise HDL, lower triglycerides might lower Lp(a), but the studies have not been shown to be effective.
So we actually -- we've basically stopped using Niacin for most of the patients. It's not very well tolerated. GLP-1s, well, every one of my patients now in New Jersey want to be a GLP-1 injection. That goes without saying. But guidelines say not to use in a patient with a history of pancreatitis. And again, it really only has minimal triglyceride reduction in patients with type 2 diabetes and high triglycerides. Thank you so much.
Thank you, Rob. That was an excellent overview. And I think what you can see from that presentation, particularly those 2 cases is that really TRYNGOLZA offers hope to these patients. They're suffering all their lives with a potentially life-threatening problem with no effective therapy. And I think we've come to the point now where we can offer these patients something effective to be able to manage their disease effectively.
So I'd like to now drill down and give you some granularity on olezarsen and some of the recent results that we reported and go through a little bit of the detail as best as we can reveal today. So first of all, I think we can easily justify calling these groundbreaking results. And the reason for that is that there were 2 important findings of the 2 core studies, the 2 pivotal trials for the sHTG population. The first was that we had highly statistically significant and clinically relevant reductions in triglycerides.
To get a 72% placebo-corrected reduction in triglycerides is really outstanding. And if you put the numbers in context, you started at 1,000, you're now down to about 250, which is very similar to what Dr. Fishberg has shown for some of his patients with FCS. So reducing a number is great, but that's not what matters to the patient, right? The numbers are excellent. They like to look at them. But what matters to them is do they feel better? Do they do better. And this is the first time in the Annals of Medicine that a reduction in pancreatitis was shown with a drug for this patient population. This, along with a favorable safety and tolerability profile.
And so briefly to take you through the mechanism and then to review the data in a little more detail, why is olezarsen effective in this patient population. The reason it's effective is because apoC-III is the bad guy. When patients make a lot of apoC-III, it does 2 things to raise plasma triglycerides and the complications you get from that, which are pancreatitis and cardiovascular disease. First, it prevents the metabolism of these particles. So think of these particles as ice cubes and they melt. They melt with lipoprotein lipase, apoC-III inhibits that. The second thing that apoC-III does is it prevents their clearance. So they now they accumulate. The numbers go up in the circulation and all that leads to high triglycerides and the complications that you saw.
Olezarsen inhibits the production of apoC-III. So what it basically does is it resets the metabolism of triglycerides. It allows now these particles to get metabolized faster and to clear faster. So it's a very elegant mechanism to be able to treat hypertriglyceridemia. Now our Phase III program for the expanded indication consists of these 3 studies. We have the 2 pivotal CORE trials, which are identically designed to be able to show a reduction in triglyceride levels as a primary endpoint.
And then we have the supporting study called ESSENCE that was recently just published in the New England Journal of Medicine. The 2 pivotal trials are required for this indication to get a triglyceride lowering indication. So that's why there are 2 trials here. They are in patients with triglycerides over 500. There are over 1,000 participants in those 2 studies combined, and this represents the largest program of its kind for this indication.
The ESSENCE trial is a supporting safety study. It was in about 1,500 patients. That was in a population with lower triglycerides greater than 150, and that just wrapped up and was published in the New England Journal of Medicine, as I mentioned. So the combination of these studies is over 2,500 patients, and this study was run at Ionis with our partners, the TIMI Group.
So let me now take you through the results, the top line results from the CORE studies. And first, the trial design. So patients were screened to have triglyceride levels over 500. They went through a diet and medication adherence program for about 12 weeks, and they were randomized to placebo, olezarsen 50 milligrams and olezarsen 80 milligrams. We used the primary endpoint at 6 months, but the treatment duration was actually 12 months.
At 12 months, we then had additional prespecified secondary endpoints, and the key one is acute pancreatitis events. The acute pancreatitis events were defined in the combined 2 groups of olezarsen and in both studies combined. So in a way, it's a pooled analysis of all of the data from both studies. There were additional endpoints that we'll reveal later in future meetings. But today, I'm going to focus on the triglyceride reduction and the pancreatitis events.
Now who are these patients? Dr. Fishberg has showed you who his FCS patients are, who are patients with sHTG. And you see here some important characteristics. First, they're relatively young. They're in mid-50s, and a lot of them have diabetes, which goes along with the syndrome. Importantly, over the last 10 years, between 13% and 22% had a history of pancreatitis in the last 10 years. So that's a fairly large number of pancreatitis events in a highly prevalent population of approximately 3 million people in the U.S. Now let's look at their triglyceride levels. Notice the median levels are about 800, which is fairly high. So normal is 150 or less. So this is over 5x above normal triglyceride levels. The mean triglyceride levels are about 1,100. And so there's a difference between the mean and the median here because many patients with sHTG have very high triglycerides in the thousands, even as high as FCS patients.
Now they're treated according to standard of care. But clearly, the standard of care is insufficient here. Note here that if you look on the bottom box here, the patients are on statins, they are on Fibrates, they are on Omega-3 fatty acids, they are on Ezetimibe and some of them are on PCSK9 inhibitors, and they still have triglyceride levels of 800. So what does this tell us? It tells us a couple of things. One is these patients have a polygenic etiology for their disorder. They have multiple disorders of triglyceride genes.
There are about 15 triglyceride genes and have variations in those that are not functioning normally. So they have a predisposition, a genetic predisposition for high triglycerides, but it's not like FCS where they have complete loss of function of these genes, they have partial loss of function. So they're genetically predisposed to have triglycerides and on top of it, they have comorbidities like diabetes, obesity and advanced age. So you put all that together, you do the best you can, and they're still coming in with very high triglyceride levels. So this speaks to the unmet need. These patients need a therapy to lower their triglycerides more. And this is why we developed olezarsen to be able to specifically address this unmet need that's currently being unmet.
Okay. So this is now the primary endpoint of the studies. And if you look on the top is the CORE study and on the bottom of the table is the CORE 2 study. And let me focus first on the top. Note here that the olezarsen 50 milligram group in the orange bar had a 63% reduction from baseline in the triglyceride levels. The 80 milligram dose had a 73% reduction from baseline, so 1% reduction. So when you do the placebo correction here, you have 63% and 72% reduction in triglyceride levels.
The absolute values, as I mentioned here, go from about 800 to close to 200, which is a massive reduction in triglycerides. When clinicians look at these numbers, they cannot believe how much lowering they get because what they know is Fibrates and omega-3 fatty acids, which give you about a 20%, 30% reduction of triglycerides. So this is 2 orders or 3 orders of magnitude more triglyceride lowering than what's been documented.
The CORE study, even though had identical inclusion criteria, had very similar findings in terms of the olezarsen groups as 1% reduction from baseline. You see there 63% and 68% for reasons that are still not fully clear yet, the placebo group had an accentuated reduction in the triglyceride reduction. So the placebo-corrected data are still very robust and highly statistically significant, but are slightly lower than the CORE study.
The CORE study was the largest of the 2 studies, by the way, and it was the first one to be initiated. Now along with this tremendous triglyceride reduction, we had an 85% reduction in pancreatitis events in the 2 studies combined. We've used lots of adjectives to define this, but let me put this in context. When we do cardiovascular outcome trials, we're very happy to get 12%, 15%, 20% reduction in relative risk when we do these trials, okay? And we consider a 20% relative risk reduction excellent for cardiovascular outcomes trials.
Well, here, we're getting 85% reduction in the first trial of its kind to do that. So this really can be put into the category of a landmark finding as far as clinical trials go to be able to achieve near cure for these patients. Importantly, this reduction was only in 1 year. And so think about that, putting a patient on a medication and in 1 year having this massive benefit. So we are very happy with this result. I think clinicians like Dr. Fishberg and others, patients will be very happy with this, and we anticipate the patients will continue to benefit as they stay on these drugs for a long time.
Now what about the safety and tolerability? Overall, it was favorable. I notice here that any adverse events were fairly equally matched across the 6 groups that you see here. Serious adverse events were also fairly well matched, but notice here that the serious AEs were more common numerically in the placebo group. And we had noted this previously in the Balance trial. And we think some of this is because the patients are having abdominal pain and other events that are showing up in the placebo group as serious adverse events that seem to be the cause for these higher -- slightly numerically higher numbers.
Now drugs that are RNA-based can cause injection site reactions. This was the most common AE that we noted with olezarsen in about 15% of patients. These were mild. They weren't really an issue for the patients. They did not require any discontinuation. And so we don't think this is going to be a major issue going forward for this. Okay. What are the next steps for this program? First of all, we're very pleased to announce that the CORE studies were accepted to be on the very first late-breaking clinical trial presentation at the American Heart Association, November 8. More data will be shown from these studies with more details.
Next, we're working extremely hard to have an on-time submission for an sNDA by the end of this year. Everything is online to do that to expand indication into the sHTG. And then in 2026, we anticipate additional filings in other geographies. And most importantly, for our patients and the physicians taking care of them, we anticipate an on-time launch in the second half of next year for expanded indication for olezarsen.
Okay. So now let me transition to some of the other key aspects of the cardiovascular franchise that will continue to bring value to Ionis, to our shareholders and especially to our patients, which is our primary reason for why we are developing many of these drugs. Now I mentioned TRYNGOLZA for FCS. You know about this. I run over olezarsen. Let me now give you some early interim analysis of ION775, which we are extremely excited about because it represents our advancement into new technologies, and we've unleashed our medicinal chemistry to be able to now create value beyond antisense oligonucleotides.
This represents the very first siRNA that will be in the clinic from Ionis, and it targets apoC-III and we have designed this to prolong the duration of treatment. And I will show you for the first time here today, some data from our interim analysis with ION775. Now coming right shortly after that, we have 2 myocardial targeting drugs whose targets are undisclosed. One is partnered; one is wholly owned. This is going to leverage our other technology, which is using cardiac muscle targeting. So we can deliver these drugs to cardiac muscle and treat myocardial diseases. And we plan to have both of these drugs be both first-in-class and best-in-class as we progress them to clinical development.
Okay. Let me review now apoC-III siRNA, ION775. And as I mentioned, this is the most advanced of several siRNA compounds that we're developing for other indications. This is going to focus obviously on elevated triglycerides. And depending on the profile, obviously, the first indication will be severe hypertriglyceridemia, but we'll see if there's potential indications in that field.
Our goal is to increase durability, as I mentioned, and we just are underway close to finishing our Phase I study in a single ascending dose in patients with moderate hypertriglyceridemia. So let me focus on this now and show you some new data. This is a Phase I study. Patients are healthy volunteers, but otherwise have elevated triglyceride levels. In this study, they had triglyceride levels of 150 to 500. So this is in the moderate range. They were randomized to get placebo.
And here, I'm going to show you 2 doses of ION775, 100 milligrams and 300 milligrams. This is a small study. So keep that in mind. The primary interim analysis here is going to be at 6 months with a single injection. But however, we're following the patients for 12 months, and then we'll have a safety follow-up after that. So this is really a 1-year study, and I'm going to show you the interim data for these 2 doses at 6 months.
Now the patient's baseline triglyceride levels here are about 220 milligrams per deciliter, which is in the range of the ESSENCE trial that was recently just published. So these are the key findings of the study. On the left is the apoC-III levels and on the right is the change in the fasting triglyceride levels. The black line is placebo. The orange line is 100 milligram and the purple line is 300 milligrams. On the Y-axis is the percent change. And on the X-axis is the follow-up. So single dose happens day 1, and then we go up to 180 days and what you see here on the left is a dramatic reduction in apoC-III with both doses that nadir to about 95% to 96% at day 15. And then you see a very slow decline as you follow the patients out to 6 months.
And so by 6 months with a single dose, we still have a 74% and 82% reduction in apoC-III levels. So how does that translate to triglycerides? If you notice on the right, you get a concomitant very dramatic reduction in triglycerides of 80% to 81% day 15. And then the slope of that curve is actually flatter so that by day 180 or 6 months, there's a 68% reduction. Now keep in mind that these patients started at 220 and the absolute values on the right side are about 50 milligrams per deciliter for triglycerides, which is also one of the lowest triglyceride levels you can achieve, unlike lowering LDL and LP(a) that you can get to 0, you cannot get triglyceride to 0 because you need it for energy. So usually, you can get to about 40 to 50 milligrams per deciliter.
So the reason I mentioned this is it's possible that these results are underestimated. And if we started at 1,000, we could still get very low and have a more potent reduction. So we will know that as we go into Phase II, we will be able to recruit patients with much higher triglyceride levels and see what the effect is. Now keep this in mind, it's going to be very hard to beat olezarsen. When we have a 63% to 72% reduction in triglycerides and 85% reduction in pancreatitis, it's hard to beat that.
However, we are looking at this as we want to be leaders in the field for the next decade, not for the next couple of years. And so this may represent life cycle management for our franchise for triglycerides to be able to maintain that leadership position and be able to be best-in-class as we go through the next decade. Now in addition to what I showed you here, with the very durable reductions and sustained reductions, this drug did have a favorable safety and tolerability profile, and we are on track to initiate Phase II in 2026.
Okay. What are the rest of the key events in late 2025 and '26? Let me take you through this. We have a lot of stuff going on in the cardiovascular franchise. Besides ION775 and TRYNGOLZA and olezarsen, I want to point out a couple of things. If you look on the yellow box on the bottom, the pelacarsen trial with Lp(a) HORIZON is expected to read out in the first half of next year. We are very proud to have partnered this with Novartis, who has been a tremendous partner in managing this trial, exceedingly well.
And it will be the first of its kind just has the Lp(a) hypothesis that lowering Lp(a) will lead to cardiovascular risk reduction. If that trial reads out positive as we anticipate, it should be a historic trial. And it's -- as I mentioned earlier, it's way ahead of the field and pelacarsen should have a long run, and there's so much unmet demand for treating patients with high Lp(a). 1 in 5 people have elevated levels.
And so you can imagine what this will create if this trial is positive, the amount of excitement that we can further reduce residual risk that Dr. Fishberg mentioned with that medicine. Now we're also very proud to be close to completing the CARDIO-TTRansform trial with our drug, eplontersen. That's going to complete in the second half of 2026. As you know, eplontersen is already approved for the polyneuropathy version of TTR amyloidosis.
We are -- I think we -- I think it can be argued strongly that we are running the best trial in the field. It's certainly the largest. It's 1,400 patients, almost twice as large as any other trial to date. It will have a very rich data set beyond its primary endpoint to look at subgroups. And we also have an excellent partner with AZ.
I want to reemphasize that the olezarsen program and the eplontersen program are completely run at Ionis. We now have experience in 2 very complicated large outcome trials, and we will leverage this experience as we have our future assets like ION775 and other assets in that lipid field and also the myocardial targeting agents.
We have a slew of regulatory events coming up besides the sNDA submission for olezarsen. And I just want to highlight those briefly. We're very focused on getting eplontersen approved. And the goal is to have both U.S. and EU submissions in 2026 for the sNDA for cardiomyopathy mediated by TTR amyloidosis. Same for pelacarsen, assuming positive readouts, Novartis plans to have a U.S. submission for pelacarsen.
And finally, the most exciting part for us because its wholly owned, is that we anticipate a second half of the year launch of olezarsen for sHTG. So that's the summary. I hope I've convinced you that we are -- we have reached to be a leader in the cardiovascular arena among all global companies. We have many things going on besides TRYNGOLZA. Next year is going to be transformative for us for the 2 Phase III readouts. And I invite you to be on our journey for the next few years as I think it will be a very exciting one, and we're very interested to see how these drugs bring benefit to our patients.
So thank you very much. And I'd like to now hand the podium over to Kyle Jenne. Kyle is our Chief Global Product Strategy Officer, and he's going to continue the conversation going forward. Thank you, Kyle.
Thank you, Sam, and good morning, everyone. I am tasked with the very high bar of building a commercial organization that is to the standard in which our research and development organizations have been for the last 36 years at Ionis. It's a really exciting time as we talk about the launch of TRYNGOLZA in FCS. And then I'll also bring you up to speed on to our preparations for our sHTG. Preparations in order to get ready for that launch in the second half of 2026. So as Sam just took you through, there's a lot happening in the cardiometabolic space.
Our commercial portfolio today, it will start with TRYNGOLZA and FCS. It will expand into olezarsen and sHTG the second half of next year. And then we will continue to build on that with ION775 and the next wave of cardiometabolic disease programs that come behind that. So this really is an exciting time. We're building a foundation and a capability from a commercial infrastructure standpoint to be able to support the launches today and building towards the future and what's to come.
Talking a little bit more in detail about FCS first, and then I'll speak to sHTG later in the presentation. To begin with, as we know, this is a severe, rare and potentially fatal disease. This affects up to about 3,000 patients in the United States. It is genetically confirmed. And as Dr. Fishberg mentioned, not only can you diagnose this through a genetic test, but you can also diagnose FCS through clinical confirmation using 1 of the 2 scoring tools that are available today.
The majority of these patients are still not diagnosed or not treated for the disease. It's a tremendous opportunity for Ionis to lead the way here. This is the medicine that we have launched in TRYNGOLZA is the first to market. We are the ones that have been able to set the stage for disease education, for patient finding, for pricing and for the standard that the product represents as well.
So what does TRYNGOLZA represent? It's the first and only approved FDA treatment in FCS today. We have very, very strong and robust efficacy and safety data behind this program. It's very well appreciated by physicians and patients that are on drug today. And what we see with TRYNGOLZA are significant and sustained reductions in triglyceride levels. We also see substantial reductions in acute pancreatitis events. And as we also heard earlier, there is a reduction in hospitalization visits as well -- excuse me, hospitalization stays, length of stay as well as ER visits with patients that are on TRYNGOLZA. So it's a very strong product profile that's resonating well with HCPs, with patients and with payers.
As we represented at the end of Q2 at earnings, we generated $19 million in revenue in Q2. That was a 3x increase over Q1. And we also provided full year 2025 guidance to be $75 million to $80 million this year. The commercial execution, as I mentioned, is really key here. What we are seeing in this market that it's really hard, right? We're up to 3,000 patients. We've got to make sure that HCPs understand what high triglycerides mean, why they should be treating these patients. They understand the need to get these patients to goal, either below 880 or below 500. And what we've seen based on the presentation of TRYNGOLZA to the HCPs and to patients is that HCPs are motivated to use TRYNGOLZA. We're seeing strong patient uptake -- we're seeing a very broad group of prescribers. So we're seeing a cardiologist, endocrinologists and lipidologists, all prescribing TRYNGOLZA today. And the feedback, as I mentioned, has been very positive in terms of the triglyceride-lowering effects and the control of their triglycerides that patients are experiencing.
Today, we are reaching about 3,000 of the highest treaters of sHTG with our current field force. That is our face-to-face interaction. What we're able to do beyond that based on the capabilities that we've created within our marketing and our omnichannel capabilities is to go much broader than that with our physician and patient education. We're reaching over 30,000 HCPs right now with our omnichannel and our nonpersonal campaign. So we're able to educate on what high triglycerides are, we're able to educate on specifically how to diagnose and identify and find FCS patients.
And that obviously is being very effective in terms of our ability to, number one, diagnose and then get patients on to TRYNGOLZA today. The split that we're seeing with our commercial and government payers is 60% commercial and 40% government. So that is representative of a patient population that have high triglycerides. And what we do know is that the majority of these patients are also paying $0 out of pocket for their prescription medication. So it's very affordable and a very positive route to patients getting on drug.
I want to highlight our Ionis Every Step program. This is our patient support program. This is a capability that we developed with WAINUA as we led the [ cocoa ] area of patient services with AstraZeneca. This is a capability in which we have Ionis nurses that are employees of Ionis that are working directly with patients to interact based on where they're at in their journey. So we start from the very beginning with disease education. We move into product education, we provide different resources and different support mechanisms in order to allow patients to be able to get on and stay on drug long term. It also supports financial assistance programs. And what we've seen is, number one, patients -- the majority of patients opt into this service. They see value in this program, and we're able to collect a lot of feedback directly from patients in terms of how they're doing on treatment today, what their experiences have been and also how we can help provide even more support for these patients as they go through their experience of living day-to-day with familial chylomicronemia syndrome.
This program, not only for WAINUA and TRYNGOLZA, but I'll also talk about it with DAWNZERA as well. It's really a critical core capability, something that we focused on it's something that's differentiating the way that we are commercializing our medicines at Ionis. So what are we doing today? Patient finding is critical. I just touched on that. So identification of patients is number one. We're reaching greater than 3,000 HCPs today face-to-face with our customer-facing team. We're going well beyond that as I represented with our omnichannel and our marketing capabilities to do even broader awareness and broader education.
The second thing that we're doing is really focusing on that reach, right? How are we communicating about the disease? How are we talking about severe high triglycerides? How are we getting HCPs to want to assess and understand that there is now a treatment available. And if they do diagnose this disease that they're able to actually move forward with treating these patients. So we are increasing diagnosis rates, and we're also increasing the ability for HCPs to prescribe and treat these patients. The payer dynamics are very strong. We are seeing both clinical and genetic confirmation being accepted by the payers. That's really important, right? TRYNGOLZA has a broad label that includes both clinical and genetic confirmation of the disease. And so we want to make sure that payer access represents that as well. And we're seeing that through the policies that are being put in place today.
Now I want to move beyond FCS and talk about olezarsen and sHTG, our first potential blockbuster wholly owned medicine at Ionis. This is really an exciting program. You just heard some of the details from Sam and Dr. Fishberg talked about the disease and the complexity of treating these patients. But there's a significant unmet need here in the marketplace for a medicine like olezarsen and sHTG. What we know is that patients are currently trying to treat these patients with other triglyceride-lowering agents their suboptimal therapies. And unfortunately, they're not able to get these patients down below 500 and get these patients out of harm's way for acute pancreatitis.
And so we are working right now to educate the market on what sHTG is, where the gaps are and also the need to treat aggressively when you do see these patients. Acute pancreatitis is the major risk factor here that we know that patients have severe abdominal pain. They often have brain fog. They're not feeling well on a day-to-day basis because of their elevated triglycerides. But the main challenge that they have and the biggest risk that we see is with acute pancreatitis. Now there's a fivefold higher risk of acute pancreatitis with sHTG versus patients with normal triglyceride levels. There's up to an 8% mortality associated with sHTG driven acute pancreatitis. And there's approximately $100,000 in annual cost for health care resulting from sHTG pancreatitis with hospitalization. So this is a very high-risk patient population. There's a need to treat aggressively and quickly and they're high cost associated with not treating these patients.
So I'll start with the quote here because it's very important because KOLs and HCPs really understand that high triglycerides are bad. They need to get these patients down. They've had suboptimal treatments today in order to do that. But just a quote here from one of our KOLs, a treatment that meaningfully lowers triglycerides and reduces acute pancreatitis risk, something we've never seen before, would be a game changer". what we represent or what olezarsen represents in this patient population is the ability to be a game changer. So what we see are highly statistically significant reductions in triglycerides up to 72% on top of standard of care. So these patients are already on fibrates and omega-3s and other treatments, and they're still not getting low enough and there's the ability to get an incremental 72% reduction by adding olezarsen to these patients' treatment.
The first and only significant reductions in acute pancreatitis, 85% reductions in acute pancreatitis, a very meaningful. The first product ever to demonstrate olezarsen, reducing triglycerides, reduces the risk of acute pancreatitis. It's a very strong and a strong message and a strong need in the market. Favorable safety and tolerability and also the ability to self-administer with an autoinjector. This is something that we have for WAINUA today. We know that it resonates very well in the market. We also have the same autoinjector with DAWNZERA but it's a simple to use, self-administered autoinjector that these patients find very well tolerated and do very well with.
In terms of our go-to-market strategy, where do we want to start? There are approximately 3 million patients with sHTG in the United States today. Within that population, there are about 1 million patients with high-risk sHTG. These are patients that have triglyceride levels of over 880 or patients that have 0triglycerides over 500 with a history of acute pancreatitis and/or other comorbidities, such as type 2 diabetes or ASCVD. That will be our beachhead. This will be the area where we will spend the majority of our time with HCPs that are treating these patients to bring olezarsen to these patients as quickly as possible, where there's the highest need to treat, there's immediate sense of urgency and HCPs already recognize and understand the value of needing to add a therapy like olezarsen to this patient group.
I already mentioned this, but what we continue to hear from HCPs is that they're really challenged by the therapies that are available today. They're suboptimal in terms of their triglyceride lowering, they're trying to do what they can with omega-3s and fibrates. And unfortunately, they just can't get these patients down low enough today. So they're aggressively treating these patients to begin with. They understand the thresholds and the risk associated with acute pancreatitis and they know that they need to get these patients down below 500 or get them as low as they possibly can. And they know that what they've got today is just suboptimal as I represented. So what can we do from a field force standpoint and from a commercialization standpoint to help move this marketplace along quickly.
Number one, we can reach more HCPs. So our plan is to go out to approximately 20,000 of the highest treaters of sHTG with a face-to-face customer team. We can do that with a couple of hundred representatives. And we believe that, that education will allow us to identify these patients that are appropriate for therapy we'll be able to educate around high triglycerides and we'll be able to educate around the risk of acute pancreatitis and the need to treat.
The other thing that's optimal here is our omnichannel and our marketing capabilities. So it's we're able to optimize and maximize our reach in a very efficient and cost-effective way by doing different nonpersonal promotion tactics and being very targeted in the way in which we deliver our marketing messages and the way that we communicate around the disease and educate the marketplace.
And then the final thing is around the payer dynamics. So what we're working on today is to make sure that payers are aware that patients remain above 500. They remain -- patients remain at risk of acute pancreatitis and we're able to work with payers right now with TRYNGOLZA approved in FCS to make sure the policies are in place for our FCS indication, but payers are also beginning to understand that there are follow-on potential indications here, and they're starting to ask about covering a broader patient population of up to 3 million in the United States. So our biggest step right now is around pricing and access. We recently got the CORE and CORE2 data, as Sam communicated in his presentation. What we will do is we will put that body of evidence together with the profile that we know olezarsen represents, we will go out and we will do testing with HCPs and with payers to come up with the optimal pricing for olezarsen and sHTG.
What we want to make sure of is that we maximize value for the medication based on what the profile represents and the patient population that we are addressing, and what we also want to be cautious of is not pricing at a point where payers end up putting restrictions and limitations and hurdles in place that create negative experiences for HCPs or patients in order to get on olezarsen. So we're working through that right now. I anticipate that taking several months we'll announce the final pricing upon approval as we've done with our other programs. But it's really a key focus of the work that is ongoing right now to make sure that we maximize the value of olezarsen in the sHTG marketplace.
So this is our potential blockbuster. This is a wholly owned medicine. It's positioned to change the sHTG treatment paradigm. We've got a tremendous opportunity with this medicine. We are first to market. We're leading the way in every aspect from disease education to working with these HCPs to understand and diagnose and find FCS patients today. And we've got a tremendous opportunity to expand that indication upon approval in the second half of next year in bringing this patient -- bringing this therapy to millions of patients in the United States.
So with that, let me open it up for Q&A and invite my colleagues up for a discussion.
So while our speakers are coming up to the stage here to take their seats, I would like to remind everybody that we do have people on the webcast who can't see us. So if you'd like to ask a question, please raise your hand and we will get a microphone to you. [Operator Instructions]. Let's start over here, Gena.
2. Question Answer
Okay. Gena Wang from Barclays. First, I wanted to thank you with a great update. So I do have two sets of questions. One is there for Dr. Fishberg, so you did mention that regarding the sHTG and you did mention that you have U.S. prevalence is over 3 million. So maybe how many patients under our care is sHTG and once olezarsen's approval, what percentage of patients you will switch over to olezarsen? And I have a one question for the companies, and I think you present super impressive next-gen data 775. So I do wanted to ask when we look at the 100-milligram, 300-milligram at the 6 months, we did not see a dose response. They basically around 68%. So now the question is, what is your goal for your drug profile? How do you balance the dosing frequency versus the triglyceride lowerly?
Sure. Dr. Fishberg, would you...
Sorry, what was the question for me again? Is it just a...
Sorry. So my question is what percent -- like how many patients, sHTG patient under your care? And how would you use olezarsen once olezarsen is approved?
That's an excellent question. I think this is -- right now, I'm addressing my FCS patients, which, again, I'm looking -- I look through the whole health care system to find the patients with the highest triglycerides, and again, a lot of PCPs have referred those patients to me to -- for treatment. I think in the clinical practice, again, this is very common. It's about 1% to 2% of the patients have triglycerides over 500. Certainly, all these patients I'm seeing, I want to make sure they restrict their alcohols restricted, their diet and exercise, make sure that those things are addressed first.
And then here you look for other comorbidities. Obviously, if they have coronary disease or they're diabetics, you want that treated you want to make sure they're in a statin that they have atherosclerotic disease. But then that leaves you a large number of patients who do have high triglyceride, who could be at risk of pancreatitis or other commodities. And I think the ones I think that I would focus on first are the ones who have triglycerides consistently over 880 or over 500 with comorbidities, certainly, if they have a history of pancreatitis, those are the ones I'd want to target first with this agent or they have had multiple comorbidities such as diabetes, atherosclerotic disease, and they have residual risk. Again, that's the one I would like -- I would target.
So I think there is a large number of patients in clinical practice that I see that would be a candidate for this drug. Again, I have thousands of patients and my colleagues in New Jersey often defer to me for the best treatment. So I do think there's a -- once it gets approved for the high triglyceride group, certainly the ones at highest risk, the ones we want to target first. And I think it's important to increase awareness among my colleagues and also among the patients. I think a lot of times, patients are ones who seek out therapies. Again, these are very intelligent patients, and they're looking for treatment. They know they're at risk, they've had diabetes or other comorbidities. I think patients themselves will be seeking out physicians who are experienced with agents like this.
And so far from my experience, I've been very pleased with the safety -- with the profile. I've had really no complaints with patients. Again, I've only had 9 patients, none of them have had any side effects, and it seems to be very easy to administer. So, so far, my initial clinical experience have been very satisfactory. And I think there will be a large number of patients. Again, the agents we have now fibrates, omega-3s, although they're approve -- they're recommended retreated, none of them are very effective, none of them reduce pancreatitis and reduce triglycerides is minimal. So again, we -- we're as clinicians, we'll look for something to address these patients.
Thanks, Dr. Fishberg. Switching gears to 775. So Gena, Sam didn't show all the Phase I data. We actually started at 10 milligrams, I think, 50 milligrams. So we have a dose response there. It looks like we're maxing out. We're beginning to max out at 100 milligrams single dose, 300 milligrams is probably -- we've maxed out apoC-III reductions and triglyceride lowering in this patient population. We'll continue to explore doses in our Phase II sHTG study to really optimize that dose for Phase III development.
But again, I want to emphasize that I don't know if anybody can beat the high bar, the efficacy that we've seen for a olezarsen in sHTG. So what we're really focused on is whether we can allow patients to self-administer twice a year, maybe once a year with a long-acting apoC-III inhibitor. And we'll see how that plays out. But right now, the data certainly supports that level of dose -- in frequency of dosing.
Let's give the microphone to Yanan here and then Jason.
Great. Yanan Zhu, Wells Fargo. Dr. Fishberg, maybe a quick follow-up. How many -- you mentioned you might manage thousands of patients. Do you have a rough sense of how many patients would be put on TRYNGOLZA for sHTG? That will be super helpful. For the company, two questions on the siRNA for apoC-III, any thinking about the differentiation from the current siRNA in development other than maybe more extended dosing interval in terms of potency, efficacy, do you have any sense or target profile that you can share? And lastly, on the cardiac program, can you talk about the more [indiscernible] that you utilize to achieve cardiac delivery? Is that something we have seen from others? Or is this a normal mechanism? Any details would be appreciated.
So the first part of the question was how many patients, I think, would be a candidate for this? Well, again, in my system, just doing a brief screen of all the patients in the system, I saw about 2,000, 3,000 patients in Atlantic Health who had triglycerides over 500 that could be a candidate. And that may be a underestimate because again, not every patient had that triglyceride measured. But I do think that the number of 1% or 2% might be realistic.
Again, not all those 1% would be a candidate for this. I do think, at least in New Jersey, I do see a few thousand patients that would be candidates for this. So I think that again, we have to wait so it's out clinically to be useful. But I think that every cardiologist, every lipidologist, endocrinologists have patients like this that would be a candidate for it. It's not going to be millions of patients necessarily. But I think it leads to New Jersey, I do see, in my area, a few thousand patients that would be a candidate for this right off the bat. The other question was...
I think that was it. So -- thank you. Let me start, Sam, then you can jump in and fill in anything. So again, I want to emphasize, we don't think beating the efficacy in the overall safety profile with the efficacy we've seen in olezarsen is beatable with any new modality, including maybe 775, it's really all about less frequent dosing for those patients that may prefer twice a year dosing versus monthly dosing.
What we really think is important is the number one, what's important, over less frequent dosing is being first to market, Yanan. As Dr. Fishberg has laid out, the unmet need is enormous for really meaningful triglyceride reductions in this field. And we're going to change the field. We're going to change the landscape with olezarsen. That's what our full focused on with 775. For cardiac myocyte targeting, we're -- we have a platform that's targeting transferrin receptor 1 in cardiac myocytes. And we have several approaches and one particular approach is a very low molecular weight peptide, a bicycle peptide that is conjugated to an siRNA actually, in this case, for our first molecule that is opening up the cardiac myocytes. The data in nonimmune primates is just they're remarkable and the level of knockdown that we've achieved. We can't disclose the target yet because it's partnered, but we're expecting that clinical trial to initiate by the end of the year. Would you like to add to that?
Sure. On the question of ION775, we're in the middle of gathering a lot of information and with additional doses, one of the things that we want to look at carefully is this is a profile in terms of kind of atherogenic lipoprotein is different than the rest. So besides the triglyceride lowering for pancreatitis, there's a lot of interest in cardiovascular disease. So we want to look at some of those additional metrics. Apo,B, non-HDL cholesterol. And we'll be able to report those in a future meeting to see if that differentiate from the other drugs. It's a new compound has a long patent life. So we have a lot of options. High triglycerides are associated with not only pancreatitis, but cardiovascular disease and aortic stenosis. So there may be some options for that down the road outside of pancreatitis, that we might consider depending on the profile.
And for the myocardium I just want to mention that this is really an untapped frontier in cardiology, right? We have mavacamten, we may have aficamten soon, but we haven't had any new drugs for 50 years. And this field is ripe for disruption, and we hope to be the first to start leading that effort to develop drugs for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, HFpEF, heart failure. And these two drugs that I mentioned will be the first forays into that for us.
Jason?
Jason Gerberry from Bank of America. Maybe first question for Dr. Fishberg, just -- as it pertains to sHTG, I just kind of wanted to get your perspective on patients who don't have a past history of acute pancreatitis. What do you think the motivations will be to treat how motivated do you think these patients will be to get treatment with the TRYNGOLZA based on the clinical data that you've seen? And then for the company, a somewhat related question, is it a priority or a plan to develop either QOL quality of life and/or some sort of patient-reported symptom composite of some of these chronic symptoms outside of pancreatitis to help elucidate the benefit of the drug? It seems like an area for Phase IV data generation. Just kind of curious your thoughts there or if there are just challenges to developing a validated scale there.
And then lastly, just for 775, the regulatory path as you guys think about that, would that be a head-to-head against olezarsen?
Well, I'll address the first question. So if a patient hasn't had pancreatitis their fearful of pancreatic -- getting pancreatitis. So I think that these patients who have progressed or lower 500 persistently, they made them aware of the risk and they're -- again they're desperate not to have episodic. No one wants that pancreatitis. So I think they do have high motivations to do again. We do emphasize diet, exercise, but again -- and the ACC we do recommend if your triglycerides over 500, we do recommend treatment to lower down, although the ACC and AHA are first to admit that none of the approved therapies are very effective, and none of them have ever reduced the risk of pancreatitis. I think that as a cardiologist and a lipidologist, we're really focused on if we can't get it down with other means, we are looking for ways.
So I think patients will have high motivation for this. And I do think that patients are looking for treatment, they're looking for options. And again, there's residual risk patients who have high triglycerides are at risk for atherosclerotic disease besides pancreatitis, and they're looking for ways to reduce their risk.
Sam, we're collecting data now as exploratory endpoints on quality of life, hospitalizations, patient reported outcomes now from the CORE and CORE2 studies, isn't that right?
That's right. Yes. So we are doing exactly what you're suggesting. We actually have a dedicated group of health economics and outcomes research at Ionis, and they're basically on all of these programs. So you're going to see a lot of data coming out from the Balance study because we've been able to analyze all of that. And so that's going to start percolating out. And we have a lot of positive feedback from patient reported outcomes already in Balance, and we anticipate we'll have very similar findings when we analyze the sHTG data for the CORE studies.
And for 775, Jason, I think we'll be okay if we get the study started as quickly as we plan to do a placebo-controlled Phase II study for 775. However, whether we -- it's ethical to be able to do a placebo-controlled trial in Phase III, depends on how quickly olezarsen taken up globally and whether there's any patient that are not on ethically not on olezarsen today. That's to be determined. We have to work out our Phase III plans. But we're not necessarily against doing a comparative study versus olezarsen 775. That's to be determined.
Take a question over here. Debjit, did you have your hand up? Sorry, I can't see very well.
This is for Sam. Debjit from Guggenheim. Sam, there is an MRI sub-study part of the CORE1, 2. Do you need that data for the supplemental NDA? And should we expect that data at AHA or at some time point next year?
Yes. So it's a CT angiography substudy. No, we do not need that for an sNDA. That's more of a mechanistic study to help us understand the atherosclerosis angle which is really a secondary issue for olezarsen right now. We're really focused on the pancreatitis risk. And so that is not a regulatory endpoint, but it's going to give us some insights into deciding whether we want to pursue kind of a broader indication later we are working on doing the analysis for that, and I'm not sure exactly when it will come out, but it's probably going to be next year.
Jay Olson, Oppenheimer. Maybe a commercial question for Kyle. Now that the GLP-1s have opened up the direct-to-patient channel and Amgen has announced that they're going to use that for Repatha also. Is that something you would consider for olezarsen for sHTG? Could that be a natural extension of your Ionis Every Step program?
Yes. Thanks, Jay. Great question. I think the programs that are going direct to patients are really going to be targeted towards uninsured or patients that don't have coverage today. And it's also going to be for medications that are at a price point in which patients can probably cover on a monthly basis. So those are two things that we would need to assess and figure out based on our pricing and where we land. Could patients even afford to do that through a direct-to-patient type of a program. But we'll look at all pathways.
The Ionis Every Step program is really -- it's a comprehensive program. It is very unique in terms of how we've mapped the patient journey and the way that we interact with these patients and provide support. And we also get such great feedback from patients in terms of how they're doing on treatment and things that we want to make sure that we continue to build out that program. So we'll look at every option available to make sure we continue to evolve the program.
Okay. Arsalan here? And then we'll take -- Daniel, we'll take you next, okay?
My name is Arsalan Kamran here from Gary Nachman from Raymond James. Congrats on all the achieving milestones thus far. And my question is, could you elaborate on what we should expect from the upcoming AHA presentation, specifically how robust the data set will be and details that are beyond what's already been shared. And a follow-up for the KOL among the key secondary endpoints in the full CORE and CORE2 data, which do you view as the most important in shaping the clinical in commercial profile for the program?
Sam, do you want to touch on...
For the AHA, we anticipate to present the key primary outcomes of the study that includes the primary and all the secondary endpoints. And remember that it's both studies. So both studies will be presented individually for their primary endpoints. And then we have secondary endpoints, and then we have a pooled analysis of pancreatitis and the rest of the endpoints. And I think Debjit, I must have misunderstood your question. I may have thought you just mentioned ESSENCE, but I think you mentioned CORE. So the MRI is going to be part of that analysis also. So those are the keys. It's a very rich data set. We can't present everything. I suspect we'll have 20, 30 publications from that study to look at all the different parts of that whole story. But the key parts that it's going to be at the AHA are going to be the primary and secondary endpoints.
Those second -- thanks, Sam. So those secondary endpoints will include things like remnant cholesterol, apoC-III reductions. What I think is also very important is the percentage of patients that we're actually getting below 880 and percentage of patients we're getting below 500 and to 150, which is normal triglycerides, which I think will be very compelling. I mean what's compelling to you in the additional data, Dr. Fishberg?
Well, I think the reduction in triglycerides to me is remarkable, first off because, again, that's the major effect. And I think the reduction of the pancreatitis compared to other agents, again, we have these agents approved for reducing triglycerides, but none of them have really [indiscernible] effective, none of them have reduced pancreatitis. So that we a drug that can reduce the instance of pancreatitis is remarkable. And again, I'm used to studies where the reduction in events is 14%, 15% reduction of event of 85% is basically unheard of in cardiovascular studies.
And we will present the details on the AP data from the CORE, CORE2 combined, as Sam said, also the time course for reductions in AP, which is, I think, very impressive when you say.
Daniel?
[ Dan ] from H.C. Wainwright working with [ Ron ] and Mitchell. So one for Dr. Fishberg, you mentioned sort of starting patients on statins first. So what needs to happen for olezarsen to be your first go to? Is this purely a pricing issue? Or is there a safety profile that you need to consider? And then for the company, is there a percentage of your pipeline you expect siRNAs to represent in the future? And how do you decide what you want to target with ASOs versus siRNAs?
So first off, if it's FCS patients, FCS then olezarsen would be the first drug that would use irrespective. These are patients generally who don't have atherosclerosis. So the two FCS patients, this is the first drug, which is approved and those are the ones I would use it first. Again, for the high triglyceride patients, these patients are already on statins and then I'm looking for an additional use, and I think this would be knowing that the other drugs are not affective, they have side effects. I would probably -- again, as we get more familiar with the drug, I would go to the sooner. So I think there will be a process where in the future, we would use this as a very early option for these patients. Some of them might be on omega-3s, but some other reasons, too.
But again, if the goal is to reduce triglyceride to reduce pancreatitis, you want to -- I want to prevent disease some happening. It was like look at my situation with atherosclerotic disease, I want to prevent a heart attack, which is a devastating event. The [indiscernible] pancreatitis is as severe event. And for the patient might even be worse event than having a heart attack. So again, these are things you want to prevent and if this could prevent pancreatitis in a high-risk patient, I'm going to go through it pretty quickly.
And on the second question, so when I began -- when I took the helm in 2020 and what we like to say at Ionis unleash the research towns, to explore all oligonucleotide based mechanisms of action, including siRNA, we agreed that we would develop the best drug for the best target that's possible. So we go head to head for every drug discovery effort that we initiate in our research organization using Ionis medicinal chemistry for antisense oligonucleotides and siRNAs using our discovery processes and so forth.
It's hard to predict what the future will be with respect to balance. We're going to have a good balance of ASOs and siRNAs in the future. But there's targets that just make complete sense for a single-stranded data cell mechanism of action such as splicing modulator like for spinal muscular atrophy or for Dravet syndrome, right? SIs aren't going to work there or for nuclear retained RNAs like UBE3A for Angelman syndrome, where SIs don't work as well for -- if we ever got into myotonic dystrophy, DMPK, right, which is a nuclear retained RNA clearly works better in the nucleus with single stranded versus double stranded based on the research that we have done. New chemistries that are coming with single-stranded oligonucleotides that are giving us durability that matches siRNAs, like in the CNS, Holly will talk about this later.
For new chemistries that we've developed in CNS, it's allowing us to dose once a year. We haven't seen SIs that do better than that. With that said, there are advantages with siRNA on durability in the liver. We see greater duration of action. And if that is important for patients and health care providers, we're going to make it available to them. So I can't predict what the balance will be in the future, but I can tell you that we will utilize the best mechanism for the best target for the best opportunity.
Okay. I think we have time for one more question. I think that's Salveen over there.
Salveen Richter, Goldman Sachs. If I could just ask how -- clinically how you're thinking about glycemic control in this population? And then on the payer front, how that has progressed so far in sHTG and how that might evolve with this medication being entered into the market?
So glycemic control is actually very important. Again, it's somewhat different from triglycerides. Again, a lot of these patients have because the pancreatitis have developed diabetes in FCS and a patient on high triglycerides, they may have diabetes of comorbidity. So I do think controlled getting A1c down below 7 as well as you can is very important. And I think these -- we have these new agents on the market, which are remarkably effective for reducing glucose and have outcome data. So I think again, they're all very complementary. And I can tell you as a cardiologist until a few years ago, I kind of separate my -- I was doing atherosclerosis, I let the endocrinologists deal with diabetes, now as a cardiologist, I deal with everything because everything is mixed together. And my patients have atherosclerosis also have high glucose and diabetes and you have to treat the whole patient.
So I think it all kind of fits together. You want to reduce triglycerides and reduce glucose and treat the whole patients. And I think they all kind of work together. You do want to get these patients try using triglycerides want to use another agent to get their A1c and glucose as low as possible.
Yes. And for TRYNGOLZA and FCS today, what we're seeing are payers are reimbursing based on the indication statement. So in adults with FCS as adjunct to diet. And then they can be clinically or genetically confirmed typically with the payers. And as Dr. Fishberg, represented, he's got both of those patients in his practice, and he's got a number of approvals and patients on commercial drug. So we know that the pathways are working effectively. And then as it relates to side effect profiles, et cetera, it's managed, as Dr. Fishberg, just described, as you would with any other treatment or medication, but we've seen no pushback or no concern on the payer side of that dynamic.
I think Kyle, it would be worth to -- for Salveen to address the sHTG plans going forward for what we are expecting from a payer dynamics and pricing.
Yes. So as this population grows, right, we're up to 3,000 patients in FCS today. The payers are looking at the sHTG marketplace as 3 million patients, right? They're going to look at the prevalence in the United States and they're going to build their budget impact models based on the anticipated indication statement and what we believe olezarsen will potentially be approved for based on how the clinical trial was designed.
So the payers today are looking at patients that are above 500, and they're looking at patients that are on some sort of triglyceride lowering agent today and still unable to get to goal and they will build their analysis on budget impact based on price, based on the volume of patients that they expect to see in their population and then they will start to build policy around that. So they're not going to look at a history of AP specifically. They're not going to look at patients that are above 880. They're really going to look to the indication statement and what the prevalence is in the United States in order to drive their policy is what we're hearing today.
That's why what I've communicated up to this point is kind of the $10,000 to $20,000 a year range is a ballpark of where we're at today. We're going to go back, as I mentioned, and do comprehensive research with HCPs and payers with the profile that we see coming out of CORE and CORE2 in order to see what our opportunity is to maximize price and value without getting to a point where we put a lot of restrictions in place and limit the population that are above 500 on standard of care today from receiving treatment. So that will be our focus and the work that we'll do over the course of the next year or so.
Thank you. We're going to have to end it there. I want to thank our speakers, our Q&A panelists here for taking the time to talk to us. And we're going to take a break, and we're going to restart the program back here at 10:45 Eastern Time. Thank you.
[Break]
We want to get restarted here. Welcome, everyone, back to our second session of the morning. We're glad to have you back here, and I'm happy to introduce now Ken Newman, who's our Senior Vice President of Clinical Development, to come up here and talk to us about DAWNZERA program.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for coming back. It's been over 30 years since I first saw a patient with HAE. At that time, there were no effective therapies. Fortunately, effective therapies do exist today. So I couldn't be more delighted to be here to talk about HAE and DAWNZERA.
What you see here is a picture of Lauren. Lauren is actually a patient in our Phase III clinical trial. She and her twin sister were both patients in our Phase III clinical trial. They had tried all the available HAE prophylactic therapies. None of them worked. That's why they enrolled in our study. They responded so well that they say being on DAWNZERA has given them their life back. So I'm going to talk about on DAWNZERA today, which we believe is setting a new bar for the prophylactic therapy of HAE. So we can talk about more patients like Lauren.
Hereditary angioedema is a rare chronic and genetic disease. It's characterized by acute swelling, which are often turned to HAE attacks. These swellings can be life-threatening and they are unpredictable. They can occur anywhere in the body. They can occur in the hands, the feet, the genitalia, the abdomen, the face, the throat.
And as opposed to an allergy attack, these attacks are painful. They're potentially life-threatening and they can last. These attacks without treatment can last 3 to 5 days, even with appropriate treatment. These attacks can last a full day. Think about what it's like if your hand was to swell to the size of a softball, how painful that would be, how debilitating that would be, how embarrassing it would be, how difficult it would be to work.
When these people have swelling in their abdomen, it means their intestinal wall is swollen. It's incredibly painful. It's so painful that many of these people have had unnecessary and inappropriate abdominal surgery to treat them and most dangerously have all of the laryngeal attacks, the attacks in the throat. These attacks can cause airway obstruction. By causing airway obstruction these people kind of [ fix it ].
In fact, in the days before there was effective therapy, about 1/3 of these patients would actually die of asphyxia. These symptoms also start early in life. The mean age of onset is 10 with it getting worse during puberty, which means that these patients have to spend most of their lives dealing with this frightening of debilitating disease.
The worldwide prevalence of this disease is about 150,000 people, which means there's about 7,000 patients in the United States that have this disease. And it's important to note, even today how long it may take to get diagnosed. It takes an average of 5 years, especially for the 25% of patients that do not have a family history of having HAE. Pictures are worth a thousand words. So this is a patient having a facial HAE attack.
In the middle, you can see the grotesque appearance of this patient with massive facial swelling. Here she is in the car going to the emergency room on the right there, she is in the hospital. Fortunately, she received appropriate therapy and responded well, and you can see her upon discharge.
Hard to believe it's even the same person. If you look carefully, you can see that she's drooling, which means she can't handle her own secretion, which means she already have throat swell. She was in a life-threatening situation.
Fortunately, she did well, but the really good news is that we now understand what the physiology of this disease is and how to prevent it. HAE is caused by a mutation that causes low level of C1 esterase inhibition. C1 is a complement fact. The complement is a normal part of the innate immune system. But without this inhibitor, the system gets revved up like a runaway train.
And by the time with this runaway train and causes increased vascular permeability, the specific pathway, which is involved is called the Kallikrein-kinin system. And when this starts going, it starts producing too much bradykinin and bradykinin causes the tissue swelling and edema that we see, that characterizes an HAE attack.
So DAWNZERA was targeted specifically to target a unique protein, which is prekallikrein or PKK. In the top of the diagram on the top left, you can see DAWNZERA, which is being targeted to that hepatocytes, targeted to the liver cell. So you can see it binds to a specific receptor on the liver cell. It then becomes endocytosis that's brought into the cell and release where it can then bind with messenger RNA, degrade that messenger RNA and therefore, reduce the amount of protein that's being made.
And by reducing the amount of prekallikrein that being made prevent the Kallikrein-Kinin system by going into overdrive and prevent the HAE attacks. So this is a new mechanism of action and we know that it's effective and robust as seen in our clinical program.
I want to point out that this program has been validated by the New England Journal of Medicine who have published not just once, but 3x our clinical data, Phase I, Phase II and Phase III have all been seen in the New England Journal, which validates the scientific rigor and clinical importance of this program. And I'll take you through a little bit of that data. DAWNZERA approval was based on the OASIS-HAE and OASIS-Plus open-label extension studies. So on the x-axis here, you see the time within the study.
So 0 to 24 weeks within the OASIS-HAE study, which is the double-blind, placebo-controlled study and then a following year in the OASIS-Plus open label extension. On the y-axis, you see the percent reduction in HAE attacks. So what you see in the OASIS-HAE study is that there is a dramatic reduction in terms of the number of attacks seen with both 80 milligrams of DAWNZERA every 4 weeks and 80 milligrams of DAWNZERA every 8 weeks.
The 4-week dosing group is robust, compelling and fast. The 8-week dosing group separates nicely from placebo, but not as fast. So that by the end of the study by 24 weeks, the reduction in HAE attacks was very similar to that team with 4 weeks. This is why the recommended starting dose is DAWNZERA, every 4 weeks with the option for patients to go to every 8-week dosing. Importantly, in the open-label extension study, there was a 94% reduction in HAE attacks regardless of whether or not they were on 4 or 8-week dosing.
In addition to this reduction in HAE attacks, there was a clinically significant improvement in quality of life in both of these studies as well as high levels of disease control as shown by the angioedema control test or the AECT. In addition, we had an innovative cohort within the OASIS-Plus study. This was the switch study, where we took patients who had been on other prophylactic HAE therapies for a prolonged period of time and rolled them into the study, put them in a 10-week baseline period and then in a prescribed fashion, switch them to DAWNZERA.
And what we found in this study is that there was a significant reduction in the rate of attacks as compared to the baseline on their prior prophylactic therapy. So overall, there was a 62% reduction. What this means is for patients who are on lanadelumab previously, there was a 65% reduction in attacks on DAWNZERA as compared to the baseline on lanadelumab. For berotralstat, there was a 73% reduction in attacks as compared to the baseline on berotralstat. And for C1 inhibitor, it's a 41% baseline -- 41% reduction as compared to their baseline. That data was published recently in the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology.
There was also associated with an improvement, a clinically significant improvement in their quality of life. In addition, the percentage of patients who were well controlled as shown by the angioedema control test went up. We have a baseline of 67% across all three prior treatments, up to 93% when treated with DAWNZERA. So it's not probably a great surprise that when we survey the patients and ask them which do they prefer, DAWNZERA or their prior agent?
84% said, they preferred DAWNZERA. In addition, DAWNZERA has a favorable safety tolerability profile. We published numerous manuscripts and have numerous abstracts on the safety and tolerability profile. The only -- the adverse event that was -- the most common adverse event that was seen when DAWNZERA as compared to placebo with injection site reactions, which within the OASIS-HAE study were invariably mild or always mild and resolved without treatment.
But there's more upcoming. The upcoming American College of Allergy , Asthma and Immunology meeting next month, we'll be presenting even more data. So we'll be talking about the 1-year follow-up of patients within the switch cohort. We're talking about the 4-year analysis of safety from the Phase II open label extension. And I'll tell you a sneak preview, it keeps getting better.
So we have a really full and robust data set for DAWNZERA. It meets all 3 pillars that patients want. High efficacy, as shown by a substantial and sustained attack rate reduction, which is durable, showing long-term disease control. Up to four years, we've demonstrated a durability. It's safety and tolerability using a low-volume auto-injector and convenience that has the longest dosing interval every 4 weeks or every 8 weeks and the autoinjector is easy and it can be administered within 10 minutes.
So we think this sets a new bar for the treatment of HAE. We look forward to further commercialization of this product, and I look forward personally talking about more patients like Lauren.
And with that, I'd like to turn this over to Kyle.
Thank you, Ken. I'd tell you, it's great to have a development partner like Ken, when you're on the commercial side of things because products get developed the right way. They give you the right data sets, you end up in the regulatory process, getting a really strong label and it gives you a great opportunity to bring a medicine to potentially thousands of people that could benefit from a new profile and something that's innovative and different, and that's really what DAWNZERA represents. So the launch is really off to an encouraging start. I'll give you a little bit of color here and talk through a little bit about where we're at today. The approval, believe it or not, was on August 21, so we're only a couple of weeks into the launch at this point. Within the first 24 hours, we had already received the first prescription for DAWNZERA. There were HCPs and patients that were waiting for the approval.
Number two, we were able to get product in channel within a week. So talking about commercial execution and being able to move things through our supply chain, getting it all the way through to our specialty pharmacy in that period of time, I think, reflects our ability to execute very effectively on the commercial side. And then most importantly is within 10 days, we actually saw a patient receive medication and do their own self-administration using the auto-injector. So the execution around this from the commercial standpoint has gone very smoothly, and I think it just reflects the capability that we've built here.
Physician engagement. Our team has gone out and has spent a lot of time with the KOLs and the treating HCPs in HAE prior to launch and then obviously, subsequent talking about the benefits of DAWNZERA and what that represents, and I'll talk through that. But there are a couple of different patient groups that we want to highlight. One is the switch patient, right? The majority of these patients are on a prophylactic treatment today in the United States, so the switch market is a very important market. Another segment of patients are patients that are currently being treated with on-demand therapies only. They're not on a prophylactic today for one reason or another. I'll talk through that.
And then we also have the newly diagnosed patients. And regardless of which segment these patients could potentially reside in, DAWNZERA could be a potential treatment option for those patients. I just mentioned a little bit about the market. About 75% of the people in the U.S. with HAE are currently being treated on a long-term prophylactic treatment. There's still opportunity, although a competitive market space, there's an opportunity here for DAWNZERA to be the potential prophylactic of choice for many of these patients based on the profile of the drug. What we also know is that the patients that are on treatments today are switching between these long-term prophylactics already.
Over the last several years, when you look at it on a year-over-year basis, on average, about 20% of the patients on a long-term prophylactic are moving between the existing treatments that are available. And they're moving because they are unsatisfied, and I'll mention that here in just a second. And 90% of patients with HAE are interested in trying a new prophylactic therapy. This was from a recently conducted Harris Poll. So although they're being treated, oftentimes, it's either inadequate or it's insufficient in terms of what they're looking for in the product profile that they're being treated with.
So the unmet need remains. There's an unmet need around efficacy, tolerability and convenience. Ken just walked you through some of the data and the long-term efficacy going out to 1 year in our open-label extension study. Regardless if you are on a 4-week dose or an 8-week dose, we're seeing a 94% reduction in attack rates. So very strong efficacy. On the tolerability side, what we're seeing is patients today are taking large bolus painful injections and they're not well tolerated or potentially they're on an oral therapy in which they're experiencing side effects like GI disturbance and other things, so there's an opportunity to improve that. And obviously, DAWNZERA represents an improvement in tolerability.
And then finally, the dosing frequency. Patients are either on treatment typically every 2 weeks right now or they're on an oral daily therapy. Again, a tremendous opportunity to extend the duration of effect by using DAWNZERA and having a better profile to help these patients. So what does the DAWNZERA profile look like? Number one, the efficacy that I just mentioned, substantial and sustained rates of reduction in attacks with long-term durability -- tolerability, we've got the same patient-friendly auto-injector that we're using for WAINUA and for Tryngolza that we're using with DAWNZERA. It's a very low dose at 0.8 mL, and there's no citric acid, which is often associated with injection site pain.
And the third area that patients really struggle with that are living with HAE is around the convenience factor. And what we have designed with DAWNZERA is the longest dosing interval option going out to every 4 weeks or every 8 weeks in terms of being able to treat with the product. No loading dose is required. It takes about 10 seconds to administer, and it can be stored at room temperature for up to 6 weeks, which is actually meaningful to these patients that are trying to live active normal lives to be able to take their medication with them if they're on vacation or traveling for work or doing other things, they don't have to worry about the refrigeration aspect for a period of time.
I mentioned the 3 patient segments in the U.S., the most important segment right away is the switch patient population. That's the majority of patients today that are on a long-term prophylactic, greater than 75% in the U.S. So switching and why to switch and how to motivate the patients to switch and obviously, educating physicians on how to do that is something that we're spending a lot of time and a lot of detail around. I mentioned the patients that are on-demand therapy only. These are patients that potentially either were on a prophylactic and aren't anymore or have never been on a prophylactic therapy before. Sometimes it's because of the profile that the current drugs represent. And we believe that with the profile of DAWNZERA, there's the potential to get those patients potentially on to treatment.
And obviously, there will be newly diagnosed patients on an annual basis that we want to make sure that the product is positioned appropriately for. In the bottom right-hand corner is the flip to switch on your expectations of HAE prophylactics, just an example of the campaign that we're running to really highlight the fact that you can switch, you can switch effectively and you can switch to a potentially better treatment option for your HAE. So Ken mentioned the prospective switch study that we conducted for DAWNZERA. This is a very important study that was done for a couple of reasons. Number one, we wanted to demonstrate that patients were willing to switch from their current therapy on to DAWNZERA, and they absolutely were and the study enrolled very, very quickly.
Number two, we wanted to demonstrate that when patients did make that transition over to DAWNZERA that there was not an increase in attacks. And as Ken shared in his presentation, there was actually an incremental reduction in attacks whenever patients moved over to DAWNZERA. And number three, we wanted to see once they moved over to DAWNZERA, what was their experience and which product did they prefer and 84% of patients preferred DAWNZERA. And the reason for that preference is listed at the bottom, but it's exactly what we've been talking about. It was either because of efficacy, tolerability or convenience. So what you're seeing with DAWNZERA is the totality of a profile that is really well supported and very interesting to patients with HAE, and they respond very [Audio Gap] well [indiscernible].
Back to what I was describing with Tryngolza in FCS today, we have omnichannel and marketing and nonpersonal promotion capabilities within Ionis that are highly differentiated and very innovative. And so we are deploying those tactics and those abilities that we have within the commercial organization towards the HAE marketplace. And we're working very closely on payer access and reimbursement. Obviously, there are other prophylactic treatments that have been in the space for quite some time that have policies in place with the payers, but we want to make sure that DAWNZERA is well covered by the payers, and it's a streamlined process in terms of the experience for HCPs and for patients to be able to move over to DAWNZERA from whatever treatment they're on today.
The Ionis Every Step program, I mentioned this with FCS. We designed and really customized this program based on the HAE journey. So it looks different from what it looks like for our Tryngolza program in FCS. But for DAWNZERA, what we've really focused on is, number one, getting patients started in a way that doesn't disrupt their current treatment. So we've done, for example, here, a free trial program that allows patients to get on drug within a couple of days of receiving a prescription. That allows the transition to happen. And as I said, from a switch standpoint, physicians and patients and payers know how to do that safely and effectively because we have the data to support that.
And we also have a direct digital companion program that allows patients to actually capture how they're doing on their treatment. And as we're interacting with the patients with our nurse case managers that directly interact with the patients, we're able to have those conversations in a way to understand how patients are doing, how they're feeling, how they -- what they were like prior to coming on DAWNZERA and then how they're performing once on DAWNZERA. So we're doing a lot of things that are very specific and very intentional in terms of helping this patient population get on and manage their disease effectively.
So we're transforming the treatment paradigm for HAE. The launch is off to an encouraging start. We're seeing strong interest from HCPs and the treaters as well as the patients that have started on treatment already. The payer engagement is going very well. We're beginning to have those discussions. We'll probably go through the first half of next year in order for us to establish payer policies and make sure that there's really strong coverage here. But we are exactly where we should be in terms of being in a place to have DAWNZERA become potentially the prophylactic treatment of choice in the HAE space.
So with that, I'd like to turn the meeting over to Dr. Holly Kordasiewicz. She is our Senior Vice President of Neurology and beginning in January, will become our Chief Development Officer at Ionis. So Holly, over to you.
Good morning, everyone. I'm thrilled to share with you today the progress we're making in advancing our neurology programs to bring disease-modifying medicines to patients in need. So at Ionis, we have a proven pipeline of transformative medicines. We have paved the way for RNA therapeutics in neurology, and our track record is clear. We have 3 approved therapies for severe neurological diseases, and we have a path and a plan to do this again and again. And the reason for our success here is because we have the technology to target the central cause of the disease. Our proven RNA therapeutic platform can safely and effectively engage targets in the brain.
We have done this for over a decade, and we have built the space -- we have built the field of RNA therapeutics in the CNS. We know this space better than anyone else. And because of this, we're well positioned to deliver a steady cadence of new medicines. These include using our existing established platform as well as new innovations as we continue to push the boundaries of what is possible. So here's a look at our leading neurology pipeline, and I am so proud of the team back at Ionis who has built and continues to grow this really tremendous group of programs. We have 11 medicines in clinical development, 6 of them are wholly owned, 5 of them are partnered and all of them are for the treatment of severe neurological disease.
Another common theme is that in all cases, we are going to the heart of the disease, the central cause of the disease, either by targeting the genetic cause in a monogenic disease or stopping the production of a key pathogenic protein. This is how we provide transformative benefits for patients, and this is where our pipeline stands apart. There's a lot of potential to help a lot of people here. But given this enormous potential, to be successful, we need to focus. So we've devised a strategy to systematically bring new medicines into our wholly owned pipeline. And our approach is data-driven and based on key considerations from research, development and commercial.
First, we pick the right targets. Those targets that are central to disease, so our programs are built on a strong scientific foundation because we let nature tell us what the targets are. We then make sure we have the right development path. This means we have the tools for data-driven drug development, the natural history studies, the biomarkers, they exist or we build them. We also look for opportunities for early proof of concept. We can decide early in a program what the magnitude of effect is. We can prioritize our late-stage pipeline on those medicines most likely to give that transformative benefit.
We also look for the right commercial fit because we're building a commercial organization where we can recognize synergies across medicines. So taking all this together, we focused it on 4 disease areas: pediatric neurology, dementia, motor diseases and neuromuscular diseases. And as you can see here, we have made tremendous progress on executing our strategy. In 2023, when I introduced this to you, we had one program in clinical development in our wholly owned pipeline. That was zilganersen. We were focused on 2 pillars, pediatric neurology and dementias. We now have 6 medicines in clinical development in our wholly owned pipeline across 3 pillars.
We recently opened up our motor disease pillar, and this is with ION464 for the treatment of synucleinopathies. This is a really exciting program because this is a first-in-class RNA therapeutic targeting alpha-synuclein for the treatment of synucleinopathies. It's in Phase II testing in patients with Multiple System Atrophy, and we'll have data for you from that next year. Today, what we're going to talk about is our pediatric neurology pillar and the 3 programs highlighted here. And that's because I have new, never before seen data for you -- for these 3 programs. For zilganersen, this is for the treatment of Alexander disease, we have our pivotal data.
For ION582 for the treatment of Angelman syndrome, we have our long-term extension data from our HALOS study. And finally, I'm introducing for the first time, ION337 for the treatment of Dravet syndrome, a severe developmental epilepsy. Here, we're going to take a look at the preclinical data that supports the best-in-class profile of this molecule. So why our initial and large focus on pediatric neurology. And that's because 1 in 6 children will be affected with a neurological disease. And many of these have genetic causes, and they give us those central targets where we can make disease-modifying medicines for these children.
Young brains also have tremendous capacity for growth and repair. We saw this firsthand with SPINRAZA. If we solve the problem, the children can develop and meet normal milestones that would not have been possible because of their disease. And so this is what we aim to do again and again. And so given the need and given the likelihood for success, this is a major area of focus for us.
This is also the area where we're going to have our first independent launch in neurology, and that's with zilganersen. So zilganersen is for the treatment of Alexander disease, and Alexander disease is a severe progressive disease that is almost always fatal. It typically onsets in childhood. It can also onset in adults. It's a disease of the white matter, so it affects almost all brain regions, so it has a complex symptomology. It's caused by mutations in GFAP and the target for zilganersen is GFAP, so right on mechanism. And I am so pleased to say that our pivotal study was positive, and the team is working diligently to file the NDA as fast as possible. So we'll have that filed early next year.
And then this will be our first commercial launch in neurology. And Kyle is going to share with you our commercial strategy later this morning. Right now, we're going to go through the pivotal study. So this is a unique trial design and given the patient population, our clinical team had to be innovative. And so what they did here is a controlled, blinded first-in-human and pivotal study, meaning this is an all-in-one Phase I to III. And this is possible because of the strong scientific foundation this program is built on and our understanding of our technology. So what we did is we took a small cohort of individuals to establish safety and pharmacokinetics at a lower dose. We then escalated up to the efficacious dose level and expanded the cohorts. This includes individuals ages 2 to 65 years of age, and it's a controlled study.
We also subset the population for our primary analysis. And this is because our primary endpoint was change in the 10-Meter Walk Test at week 61. So we included individuals in the primary analysis that were 5 years of age or older. And if an adult had motor disease for less than 5 years. And this is to ensure that we could enroll a large broad population in our pivotal study, but then also focus our primary endpoint on those individuals able to execute the 10-Meter Walk Test at baseline. And as you'll see in a moment, this worked out extremely well. So here's a look at the demographics for this study. And these are the 54 brave individuals who volunteered for our trial with no notion of how it was going to turn out. So my deepest gratitude to them and their families for their commitment.
Let's take a look at how these 54 individuals were separated into cohorts. We first have our low-dose cohort. This is really to establish safety and efficacy -- sorry, safety and pharmacokinetics, and that's in 8 individuals. We then escalate up to our efficacious cohort, and this is in the dash line they're boxed in. This is our pivotal cohort. This is 24 individuals who received 50 milligrams a quarter of zilganersen and 17 individuals with placebo. We then did a primary analysis on a subset of that population based on the criteria I outlined on the previous slide, and that's 17 individuals on the high dose and 13 individuals on the placebo.
Now we included a number of secondaries in the study to capture the full constellation of symptoms of Alexander disease. And that secondary analysis was done on the full pivotal data set. So all 24 individuals at 50 milligrams and all 17 individuals with placebo. So as you can see, this is a nice representative broad population of the Alexander community. We were also able to include an instant cohort. This is an open-label cohort to study safety in the youngest individuals with Alexander's.
All right. So here it is, the pivotal data. This data is a first for the Alexander community. This is yet another first for Ionis. It is beautiful data, and it's being shown here for the first time. On the graph on the left, you have our 10-Meter Walk Test change over the placebo-controlled portion of the study, so 61 weeks. This is shown as percent baseline that you can see the progression over time. If you look at the orange line, these are the individuals who received placebo, and they decline in their performance over the 61 weeks of the study. Now the pink line are the individuals who received zilganersen, and it's stabilized. We have stabilized their disease. They do not progress. This is the first evidence of disease modification in Alexander disease. And it's not a small effect.
If you take a look at the numbers on the right, it's a 33% stabilization that's statistically significant. It is also clinically meaningful. Clinical meaningfulness on the scale is 20%, and that's based on using multiple sclerosis as an analogue. The 10-Meter Walk Test also has good construct validity, meaning it correlates well with other measures in Alexander disease. So in addition to hitting on the primary endpoint, we also, as I mentioned, included another number of secondaries in the study and all key secondaries favored zilganersen. And since this is a disease-modifying treatment, that's what would be expected.
So in addition to the robust efficacy, zilganersen also has a nice safety profile, and that's summarized here. Importantly, everything favors zilganersen. So this is great news for the Alexander community. And for Ionis, this is another validation of our platform and our strategy in neurology. So Dr. Amy Waldman of preeminent pediatric neurologist will be sharing additional details from this top line later this week at Child Neurology Society on Thursday. So needless to say, the team is thrilled with this data and working diligently to get the NDA filed as fast as possible. We're planning to have that in early next year.
So continuing on through our pediatric neurology pillar now to our second most advanced medicine in that pillar is Angelman syndrome. So Angelman is a severe neurodevelopmental disease where all aspects of neurodevelopment are affected. For example, all individuals have limitations with communication, most only say a few words. You see Jasmine here in the image, she has around her neck, her communication device, and that's what she uses to communicate and express herself. Angelman individuals also have motor dysfunction, many require wheelchairs. They also have cognitive impairment and typically reach the cognitive age of a 2- to 4-year old.
Now unlike Alexander disease, this is not a fatal disease. So Angelman individuals will live a normal lifespan. They just require constant care. Angelman is caused by loss of function of UBE3A. ION582 is designed to target UBE3A and upregulate UBE3A. So we're giving back what is lost. So again, right on mechanism. And we've shown in our HALOS study, consistent benefit across neurodevelopmental domain with ION582 treatment. We now have individuals who've been treated for more than 2 years. Everybody has completed 18 months of treatment, and we're going to take a look at that data cut next.
But first, I want to highlight that to our HALOS study, we've also added an infant cohort. And this is so important because this is a neurodevelopmental disease. And the belief is that the earlier the intervention, the bigger the benefits will ultimately have for an individual. So very happy to announce that our first patient has been dosed last month. The study is going well, and it's enrolling. We're also enrolling our pivotal REVEAL study. And this is a critically important study because this is our first controlled study with ION582. Here, we're including a broad patient population, children and adults, mutation and deletion carriers, so taking a similar strategy to what we just talked about for Alexander disease. This study is enrolling, and we will complete enrollment next year.
All right. Now one of the really wonderful things about working in rare disease and Angelman is a rare disease, but it's actually -- there's quite a large community is working with the communities. And Angelman is no exception. There are incredible patient advocacy organizations like ASF and FAST. And we could not do what we do without their work. And one of the important work that they do is they teach us about the disease from the perspective of a patient and caregiver.
And here are some of their recent data, and this is data from a listening session that they held earlier this year in April. And they asked caregivers what symptoms matter most to them? What do they want to see fixed with the therapy? And they were asked to name the top 3 domains. And their response was overwhelmingly communication. And when you listen to these parents, what they want from their loved one is those loved ones to be able to express themselves to tell them what they need, what they want, how they're feeling and so they're looking for that expressive communication. And that's why the primary endpoint in our Phase III REVEAL study is expressive communication because that's what matters most to Angelman families.
All right. So let's take a look at expressive communication from our HALOS study, the long-term extension. So this is data that we're sharing for the first time here. And this is expressive communication as quantified by the Bayley-4, which is a physician-administered assessment. We're looking at change over 18 months, and we've included here a natural history comparator. This is an external comparator and that's in black. And you can see from the natural history, it's very stable normally through the course of these 18 months. And so from an endpoint perspective, that's very attractive to have a stable endpoint. If you then take a look at the pink line, you can see an improvement in expressive communication. These patients communicate more. They get better and they get better and that they stay better over time and that effect continues to increase with time and well over what is expected from natural history. So this is exactly what we want to see at this point.
We've also quantified expressive communication by other measures, the Vineland, which is a parent-reported measure, the CGI, which is a clinician impression of change, and those tell a similar story that these patients are improving. Now of course, communication is important, but Angelman is a multifactorial disorder where many domains are affected and so we also want to look across domains. Fortunately, the Bayley-4 measures 5 domains that are important in Angelman: receptive communication, expressive communication, fine motor, gross motor and cognition.
So what you're looking at here is a responder analysis across those 5 domains on the Bayley. And this responder analysis is more stringent than anything that we've done before. So here, to be considered improved, you have to be above baseline plus 20% of standard deviation. That's a pretty standard number used in neurology to account for placebo effects. So if you look at expressive communication, which is the first column here, this is the data we had seen on the last slide. Here at 6 months, 61% of individuals are improving, 12 months, 64% of individuals and by 18 months, 71% of individuals have improvement on expressive communication.
Now if we ask what about any domain on the Bayley, not just expressive communication, but any of those 5 domains and 97% of individuals are showing improvement at 18 months on at least one or more domains. If we then say what about 2 domains or 3 domains, it's 83% of individuals have response on 2 or more domains at 18 months and 71% of individuals on 3 or more domains at 18 months. So this is incredibly encouraging. This provides a suggestion that we're affecting the underlying disease with a disease-modifying therapy. But this is open-label data. So though encouraging, we're very excited for our REVEAL study, which is a controlled study, and that's the study that will complete enrollment next year.
Now continuing down through our pediatric pillar to our newest medicine. This is our newest medicine to be entering clinical development and it's ION337. And this is for the treatment of Dravet syndrome, and we're announcing it here for the first time, so I'll tell you a bit about it. So Dravet syndrome is a severe developmental epilepsy. In most individuals, it's caused by loss of function of SCN1A, which encodes the protein Nav1.1, which is important in neuronal signaling. ION-337 is designed to upregulate SCN1A. So again, give back what is lost right on mechanism. And we're doing this with our proprietary NMA technology. So NMA is an Ionis invention that improves the potency of splice modulating oligonucleotides. And this is poised to enter clinical trials at the beginning of next year.
We've completed the IND enabling toxicology studies and part of that evaluation was looking at activity of ION337 in non-human primates. And so here is that data from the non-human primates where we quantified SCN1A levels. And to orient you, in all of us, we make the SCN1A RNA. We make productive RNAs that make Nav1.1 protein. We also make nonproductive RNAs that do not make Nav1.1 protein. This is a natural regulation that happens in all of us. It also happens in nonhuman primates. What ION337 is designed to do is it switches that nonproductive RNA to a productive RNA. In this way, you increase the levels of Nav1.1, which is what's needed in Dravet. And so here on the top graph, I've quantified the productive RNA that makes protein. And on the bottom graph is the nonproductive RNA that does not make protein.
So the groups here received either vehicle treatment, and that's noted in gray. So normalize that to 100. So this is the baseline levels of SCN1A. And then if you treat with ION337, look at the top graph, this is a productive RNA that increases and it increases to 200%. If you then look at the bottom graph, you see a corresponding decrease in the nonproductive RNA. And that's because we switched the nonproductive RNA to productive. So 95% decrease in nonproductive, 200% increase in productive. Now the really remarkable thing about this graph is how long it lasts. So take a look at the x-axis that 6 months after dosing, we still have complete conversion of nonproductive to productive RNA.
What does this mean for Dravet? So in patients with Dravet syndrome, they have a loss of function of Nav1.1, so half the functional levels. So the ideal therapy is to double their levels, and that's exactly what we've done in the non-human primates here. ION337 has also gone through our extensive screening to make sure this is a well-tolerated CNS oligonucleotide using all of our experience and know-how there. So taken together, based on the efficacy and the safety profile of this, we believe we have a best-in-class molecule using our proprietary NMA technology. So this is exciting that this is moving forward, but this is actually not our first NMA oligonucleotide to go into clinical phase testing.
Our first NMA oligonucleotide to go into testing is Salanersen. And this is data from a Phase I study that our partners at Biogen released earlier this summer. In Salanersen, modulate splicing of SMN2 for the treatment of spinal muscular atrophy or SMA. In this graph here, you're looking at neurofilament, which is a marker for damage. And the individuals that were enrolled in this study were individuals that had previously had gene therapy but did not fully respond. And so the individuals on the graph had neurofilament still elevated at baseline. If you give them a single dose of Salanersen, neurofilament drops and it stays down for near normal levels per a year after a single dose. This is incredible. This means this could be a yearly dose disease-modifying drug for SMA. This is also beautiful validation of our NMA technology in patients.
And so for Salanersen, this is going to start a pivotal study with our partners at Biogen next year, and we'll be starting ION337 with our NMA technology for Dravet syndrome beginning of next year. So it's a very exciting time in our pipeline, and we're having great advances on the clinical side, but we're not stopping there. We're continuing to advance our technology. And Brett shared you with this morning his vision and what that means for neurology is 3 areas of focus. For our intrathecally [indiscernible] 34.03 drugs, we're extending the duration of action. You just saw that for ION337 and Salanersen.
We're opening up a new tissue and for neuro, that's neuromuscular, that's skeletal muscle. So we have our first genetic neuromuscular disease clinical candidate going into IND enabling toxicology this year. And then the last thing is opening up the blood brain barrier, the BBB, and this is to enable systemic delivery of our molecules into the brain. And this is what we're going to talk about next. And that's because the blood brain barrier has been the biggest technical challenge for drug development in neurology. And that's because it is a natural barrier designed to keep things out, and that includes medicines and our RNA therapeutics. The way we circumvent this now is we deliver our drugs intrathecally.
Now we deliver them directly into the cerebrospinal fluid that bathes the brain in the cord. This is a simple 20-minute outpatient procedure, and we continue to improve the convenience by spreading out the dosing interval. And that's great. But the next frontier is being able to deliver our drugs systemically and getting them into the brain. And the pathway that's most advanced for this is using transferrin or TFR. So transferrin receptors are found in the cells of the blood brain barrier, and they're a natural gatekeeper for iron. Iron binds to them, transports across the cells and delivers iron into the CNS. What we do is we make ligands that selectively bind to transferrin so we can hit your ride on that natural transport system so that TFR also brings into the CNS our oligonucleotides.
And we have a multipronged approach to tackle this. The first is using nanobodies or VHH ligands to deliver our oligonucleotides, and we're going to see some data and talk about that in a bit more detail next. But we're also advancing Bicycle technology. And these are small 2 kilodalton ligands that we're using for skeletal muscle and heart. And the potential here is that these ligands are so small that they enable at-home auto-injector SubQ delivery. And so we want to recognize that same potential that we're opening up for skeletal muscle and heart for BBB delivery. And so that's a big area of focus for us to making that a reality. The first program that's going to go into the clinic, though, will be using the VHH, Vect-Horus technology with an Ionis oligonucleotide.
And we partnered with Vect-Horus and their VHH nanobodies after extensive research where we looked at all the different modalities out there. We made them, we brought them in-house, we tested them head-to-head so we could understand them in our own [indiscernible] 36.51 hands in our own laboratory. And then we decided on VHH because of its ability and efficiency in bringing cargo across the BBB, the safety profile as well as the potential for SubQ delivery. So we pair our first molecule going to the clinic will be a VHH ligand with Ionis oligonucleotide that has undergone a rigorous screening paradigm for systemic as well as central delivery using our know-how on how to make safe, potent, effective oligonucleotides in both those spaces.
So combining that, we have very effective molecules. And here's a look at some of the preclinical data that supports the promise of this technology. And this is data that had the folks in the lab absolutely buzzing when this first came out. So if you take a look at the graph on the top left-hand side and all the graphs are oriented the same way, these non-human primates received either vehicle treatment, and that's in the gray bar or VHH delivered Ionis siRNA, and that's in the colored bars. It was either done through IV delivery in pink or SubQ delivery in orange. And the SubQ delivery here is 1 mg per kg. So you can see in the Frontal Cortex, we have really robust target knockdown and target engagement. If you take a look at the graph below that now, this is the Caudate. This is a deeper brain structure involved in movement. We also have the very similar robust target engagement. Look at Substantia Nigra, Hippocampus, Putamen, all of them have the same robust target engagement with either IV or SubQ delivery.
And so this is incredibly encouraging and to our knowledge, it is the most robust target engagement seen with any of these delivery ligands out there to date. And so the team is working diligently to bring this forward into clinical testing. So it is an exciting time at Ionis and Ionis Neurology. As Sam showed for the cardio franchise, we have a lot of upcoming events in neurology, too, actually 11 between now and the end of next year. And I'll just hit on a few. If we start on the left, at the early stage, we have ION337, our new medicine going into development for Dravet. In our mid-stage pipeline, we have readout for ION464 for alpha-synuclein, first-in-class RNA therapeutic targeting alpha-synuclein for synucleinopathies.
We also have our MAPT Tau readout. This is a partnered program and here, again, first time anyone is testing the hypothesis of stopping intracellular production of tau in Alzheimer's disease. That's going to readout next year. The Phase II, we've already shared really exciting Phase I data from that program. Phase III, we have our pivotal study reading out with Ulefnersen. This is for the treatment of a genetic form of ALS plus ALS using a similar trial design that we discussed today with Ulefnersen. And then, of course, we have Salanersen, which is that potential once yearly dose disease-modifying therapy for Spinal Muscular Atrophy. And then zilganersen, approval and launch at the end of next year.
At Ionis, our goal is to make disease-modifying therapies for patients. We know that they are waiting for us. And we have the talent and the know-how to execute on our vision of delivering a steady cadence of medicines to those in need. We have done this before, not just once but multiple times, and we have a path to do this again and again. That path is steeped in a strong scientific foundation. We listen to the data. We listen to the patients. We listen to the communities to deliver what's needed most. And I'm so proud to be in ION and represent the team back at Ionis who's responsible for all this beautiful work I shared with you today.
So with that, I thank you, and I'd like to invite Kyle back up to the stage to share with you how we're going to deliver these medicines to patients.
Thank you, Holly, and congratulations to you and the team at Ionis. Just amazing to see the advancements in technology, the very focused approach within our neurology medicines platform and where we're headed. I'll just touch on a couple of things here to sum up the commercial situation at Ionis. First and foremost, what Holly touched on is the right commercial fit, right? How do we develop synergies around cardio and around neuro for us to build portfolios of medicines that can obviously benefit from one another and we can advance our commercialization efforts accordingly. What we see within the neurology commercial portfolio now is the ability to focus on centers of excellence, right? These are concentrated areas where there are high volumes of neurologists where we can get in and educate, build relationships, be a part of the work that they're doing and truly partner as Ionis.
The other thing that we can do is we can do broad disease education. So this allows us to talk about the things that Holly was just describing in terms of the diseases that need treatments that aren't available today, the innovative approaches that Ionis is taking in ways that we are trying to advance for the sake of these patients, new novel innovative therapies and technologies in order to help them. So each of these neurology programs, whenever you look at zilganersen or ION582 and Angelman are the next wave of medicines that Holly touched on, really unlocks the next one, right? It allows us to build our capability, and it allows us to move forward with creating synergies across the commercial organization.
Starting with zilganersen. So similar to what we have been able to do with Tryngolza in FCS and then potentially moving into a broader patient population pending the approval in sHTG into a more prevalent population, we will be able to use zilganersen as a pathway for us to engage with neurologists to understand the community even better, to partner with the HCPs that are treating these patients and to begin creating relationships that are long-standing in order for us to benefit the follow-on programs that are coming. For Alexander's disease specifically, no approved disease-modifying treatments today. You saw the strength in the data that Holly shared with us earlier that this could really be a meaningful and tremendous advancement for people living with Alexander disease and their caregivers.
Well-established patient community. Ionis, I think, it represents something very special, and we've done this for 35-plus years. And that is a very close connection to the patient advocacy groups and the patient groups that need support and want to have their voices heard. And in the neurology community, these patient groups are very strong, they're very well organized, and there's a tremendous opportunity for us to continue to partner with those groups, specifically with Alexander disease in order to help them accomplish their goals of helping these people that are living with Alexander's disease.
And in terms of reaching these patients, there are a couple of things that we'll need to do, and we'll focus on right out of the gate. First is evaluation and diagnosis. A lot of these patients, because there hasn't been a therapy available today are misdiagnosed. And so focusing on how to diagnose these patients, making sure that they understand that there's a new treatment available, what that treatment represents and how to get that treatment to these patients will be the major focus that we have. Keeping in mind, this is an intrathecal administration for zilganersen. We will do things like mapping where all of these centers are that can actually take care of and help patients with the administration so that we have the right centers in the right locations where these patients have been diagnosed and they don't have to travel long distances in order to get care. And those are the types of things that we're working through right now in preparation for the launch -- potential launch of zilganersen next year.
So in summary, when Brett opened up, he mentioned about transforming Ionis into a fully integrated biotech company and what's happened over the last 5-plus years at Ionis. I'm extremely proud of what we've done on the commercial side and the medical affairs side of the business here to be able to hire and attract a top-tier team. It's amazing to see from large companies, from start-up biotechs, the amount of talent that wants to come join the Ionis organization as we're launching Tryngolza, as we're launching DAWNZERA, as we see the future with zilganersen and with olezarsen and sHTG, we've got such a tremendous opportunity here to build on that, the launch momentum and the strength and the execution that we've been able to demonstrate early on with our commercial programs to date.
We're also -- we have a scalable organization. There are a lot of synergies here already with our marketing groups, for example, our market access, our patient support programs, but the capabilities that we have from a commercial standpoint to be able to begin layering on additional medicines and being able to capitalize on the know-how and the experience and the talent that we have at Ionis in order to maximize the opportunity to help as many patients around the world as possible with our drugs. So with that, I'd like to turn it over to Beth Hougen, our Chief Financial Officer, to talk about the strength of the financial position of the company and what's coming up next.
Thank you, Kyle. Good morning, everyone. In my 25 years at Ionis, I can honestly say I've never seen our financial foundation stronger or our financial outlook more promising. We're sitting here today at a very important time for the company in which we are looking to use our innovative technology and be able to generate substantial value. We're going to use that strong financial foundation and the financial profile that's very unique to Ionis to deliver not only medicines to patients, but also to drive accelerated growth and substantial value creation. Today is a watershed moment for Ionis. We've been delivering success across our business consistently, and the momentum is continuing to grow as we bring more and more of these medicines forward to patients. And that momentum is what's going to drive the substantial revenue growth and substantial value creation that we're seeing in front of us today.
At Ionis, financial discipline has been a top priority for most of our history, for all of our history and that's what's enabled us to really execute on the value-creating opportunities ahead of us. It's enabled us to be well capitalized. So today, we have $2 billion in cash projected at year-end. And that cash enables us to continue to invest in our ongoing and planned launches, and to continue to invest in our R&D pipeline to bring more and more medicines to patients. We have an efficient and cost-effective capital structure, including low-cost, well-structured debt and our strong financial position and outlook means that we can continue to manage that capital structure very effectively going forward.
Our top capital allocation priority is to invest in growth, and we do that with discipline, ensuring that every dollar is directed toward opportunities that have substantial value-creating potential. That means that we're investing in our R&D expenses. They're going to stay stable while we continue to bring forward our late-stage, mid-stage and earlier-stage medicines as well as investing in our technology. We're also going to continue to invest in our sales and marketing expenses, and they're going to grow consistent with the scale that we see from revenue from our wholly owned pipeline. What this all means is that we can see a very clear path to sustained positive cash flow.
What you see here is the power of our diverse sources of revenue. We see the potential for peak annual revenues from product revenues and royalties of more than $5 billion. Two points I want to highlight about that $5 billion. First is that it is generated from numerous medicines comprising product revenues as well as royalties and that, I think, is really important because it means we're not dependent on 1 or 2 medicines to reach this level of peak annual revenues. Second is that the $5 billion is actually in view today because it's only generated from our approved medicines and our late-stage medicines that we've been talking about today. So let's dive in a little bit deeper into the components of this.
We see in our late-stage wholly owned medicines, the potential for $3 billion or more of annual peak revenues. These are valuable revenues. These are product revenues. So that's really important. The other thing you see on this slide is the consistent pace in which we're bringing these medicines to patients. So you can see that, that revenue as we bring those new medicines to patients is going to continue to grow on top of each other and build on top of each other. I think it's also important to point out that there are multiple billion-dollar opportunities in this pipeline. So Tryngolza, you've heard Kyle talk about, is already launching very well. It's -- the launch is off to a strong start for all the reasons that Kyle has highlighted and notably, we've been outperforming expectations in that launch, and we're on track to achieve our revenue guidance for Tryngolza of $75 million to $80 million in this year.
Secondly, DAWNZERA, that launch is obviously in early days, but it's off to a strong start to a very encouraging start already. For all the reasons that Kyle talked about, we have confidence that DAWNZERA can be the treatment of choice for many people living with HAE and in doing so, can generate in excess of $500 million of revenue to Ionis. The exceptional Phase III data for olezarsen combined with the commercial strategy and the strong foundation that we're building with Tryngolza in FCS gives us confidence that olezarsen can be a $1 billion-plus opportunity. And now with Phase III data in hand for zilganersen, zilganersen is on track to launch next year. This is a really important launch because it opens up the neurology pipeline, and it's really the first neurology launch.
And by opening that door, it enables us to bring more and more of our neurology medicines to patients, including Angelman syndrome that Holly talked about earlier, which like olezarsen could be a blockbuster opportunity. So together, all of these medicines continue to strengthen our revenue -- our potential for revenue growth and give us a clear path towards sustained positive cash flow. There's also more though, because we have an enduring R&D engine that is generating a deep and rich mid- and early-stage pipeline. And that early and mid-stage pipeline also has the potential for some blockbusters in it, as Holly mentioned earlier today as well.
So this is, I think, together bringing us substantial high-value product revenues on a sustained basis as we bring these medicines to patients, and we drive revenue growth and our path to sustained positive cash flow. So let's look at what our partnered medicines can do for Ionis. Our partnered medicines are really important because they build on top of our high-valued product revenues. And in doing so, we think about them, those royalties and those milestones, we think of those as financial accelerators. I want you to think about them in that way as well. They build on top of the substantial product revenues that we see in our future.
Importantly, there are 3 points I want you to take away from this slide this morning. First is that the attractive economics that you see on this slide in terms of the $6 billion or more in milestones and the royalties that extend into the 20% range is a testament to the value of our innovation and our ability to negotiate substantial economics with our partners. Second, it's really important that $3 billion or more of those milestones are in view today. They're milestones that we anticipate being able to earn in the next several years as we bring these medicines on this slide forward to patients. And third, importantly, the revenue that we anticipate from royalties and milestones is very important to Ionis because it drops directly to the bottom line. It comes at literally little to no cost to Ionis and as such, it really augments our revenues, our earnings and our cash balance.
So now what does this look like over the next several years? For the first time today, we are sharing with you our projections for peak annual royalties for our late-stage partnered medicines. And as you can see, those amounts are considerable. When you add those amounts to the revenue that we're generating today from our approved partnered medicines, we see peak annual royalties in excess of $2 billion. You can see why I think about our partnered medicines and the revenues from royalties and milestones as powerful financial accelerators for the company. So you've heard me talk this morning about the clear value drivers for Ionis. And for the first time this morning, we're positioned to be able to project cash flow breakeven in 2028. That's an important inflection point for us. And it really reflects the fact that we have a very differentiated financial profile that includes substantial revenues from recurring R&D revenues.
We have expanding royalties and sales milestones from our partnered programs, and most importantly, it reflects the substantial growing revenues from our partnered program -- from our wholly owned programs. Those key drivers together really reflect our ability to move Ionis forward into sustained positive cash flow and create substantial value for shareholders and for patients. So what you've heard today is that we have a strong foundation and a very promising outlook across all aspects of our business. And from a financial perspective, we're sitting here today with the ability to generate substantial revenues using disciplined expense management and together, driving the company to sustained positive cash flow. And that can mean that we're moving into an important new era for the company, an era in which we are delivering life-changing medicines to patients and generating, accelerating and substantial sustained value for shareholders.
So thank you. And with that, I'll ask the team to come back up to the Q&A.
We've assembled the team now for our Q&A session, the second one of the morning, and we'll get started. Jess, do you want to start us off with a question?
Great. Jeff Fye, JPMorgan. Can you first just elaborate a little bit on how the NMA technology works to achieve these long dosing intervals? And then second, a couple on 337. I think for STK-001 01:00:42, it took them a while to get up to an effective dose, maybe in part related to some nonclinical findings that led to a partial hold in dose cap. Did you guys have any similar findings in the NHPs with 337? And given that you'll be coming from behind relative to Tominersen 1:00:53 -- how do you expect to differentiate beyond dosing frequency?
ION337, the NMA technology, the way that it works is it improves potency, so we have about a 3x potency shift and by improving the potency, you can then extend the dosing interval. And we have a manuscript up on BioArchive that explains the details of this, so there's more chemical details in there as well. So recommend everybody check that out. And then in terms of the NHP, we're very happy with our NHP profile. We're up to go -- able to go up to high doses as we do for most of our programs. And the only finding that we have there is our typical acute transient fully reversible finding. So we are very happy that we'll be able to dose the full dose response curve going right into our human clinical testing. And this is based on the experience we have with oligos. We know what to look for preclinically to make sure that we have a molecule and achieve that. And then in terms of differentiating, so in addition to that extending the dose interval, we also won't be leaving any efficacy on the table, so we'll be able to get maximum efficacy and provide the greatest benefit is our hope.
This is Julian Pino working with Paul Matteis at Stifel. Just a couple of questions on Angelman. So your competitor has already announced completion of enrollment. So I'd love to hear a potential status update on how enrollment is progressing there and when you expect to complete enrollment next year, if you have any more specific guidance. And we've also sort of seen some recent updates that suggest this FDA may be more willing to be flexible from a regulatory perspective, when it comes to rare disease. Do you maintain a dialogue with FDA just because you announced alignment on the registrational trial almost a year ago. And there's been a number of updates since then.
And then one more quick question, if you don't mind, just on the status of your collaboration with Biogen. The blood brain barrier technology that you presented today seemed really exciting, so I would love to hear, are you encumbered from any targets that you re going after with your BBB tech and would love to hear any color on that.
Yes, there's a lot of questions. So I'll try to remember them all. Holly, why don't you talk about how enrollment is going? And then maybe also talk about a little bit about how we see ION582 from a differentiating standpoint from other programs. And then I'll talk a little bit about the regulatory question in Biogen.
Yes. So ION582, our Angelman program, the enrollment is going extremely well. We had announced that we would begin dosing in June, we did. We're still on track to complete enrollment next year. So there are many KOLs and patients in this community who want to participate in trials, actually many more than we'll be able to enroll in the trials that are available. So that is not a challenge. Our molecule also has an excellent safety profile. Again, it's built on our known established platform that you guys have been hearing about today that have gone through our rigorous screening paradigms to make sure that it's a safe molecule. So we have a safe molecule that's showing activity across domains. And so we have in all the different domains that we've looked at, benefits in our ION582 HALOS study, which isn t the case for everyone else.
Shifting gears, we have an outstanding relationship. I'd call it a partnership with the neurology division at the FDA. We were the first to bring oligonucleotide-based drugs to the FDA for neurological disease applications, and they have worked tirelessly with us to help us not only get these drugs to patients, but also to help us in our clinical trial design, so we've been very flexible. I'm not talking about cutting corners, but I'm talking about supporting us and helping us along the way. As they did with SPINRAZA, the first ever infant delivered intrathecal oligonucleotide in the history prior to us doing it as they did to find a way to get QALSODY approved, the drug that was clearly demonstrating benefit for ALS patients, but the clinical trial design was not the right design, but they knew it was helping patients as they did in our Alexander's program.
I mean, a single clinical trial that they agreed to, a Phase I,II, III study that they agreed to would -- that if it showed benefit, they would support it going forward, so -- and the same is going to hold, we believe, for Angelman's and so on. So we have a great relationship with them as we do with Biogen. Biogen is a long-standing strategic partner of ours, and they've done a phenomenal job with the programs that we have delivered to them, whether they were responsible for late-stage development or we were or the commercial launches. They've done a great job with SPINRAZA. They've done a great job with Salanersen in our other programs, our Tau program and so on.
We have a long-standing partnership with Biogen that lasts a couple of 3 more years or so. However, we have a lot of unencumbered neurology programs that are wholly owned by Ionis, and we expect to have more going forward that includes Alexander disease, that includes our Angelman's program, that includes our alpha-synuclein program and so forth. I mean Biogen has their capacity and their focus, and we have ours, and there's plenty for both. Blood brain barrier, we're working closely with Biogen on BBB, but we're also working on independent programs for blood brain barrier ourselves and Holly actually showed you an independent unencumbered program today that we're working on in blood brain barrier there too. So we don't really have an encumbrance on using technology for the blood-brain barrier going forward.
Just one other thing to highlight for the FDA is we have breakthrough designation for ION582 for Angelman. Will help us with those conversations.
All right. Yanan, another question, and then Yale, after.
Yanan Zhu, Fargo. I wanted to thank the team for the clarity on the peak royalty, peak sales and cash flow breakeven. Those are super helpful. My question is maybe a follow-up on Angelman's syndrome. I was wondering, have you looked, in terms -- of course, great data on expressive communication. I was wondering, on the cognition [indiscernible] component side, is the profile that you see competitive? Maybe separately, on zilganersen, it sounds like there's -- there are only 100 to 300 patients in the U.S. What's the pricing strategy there?
So for Angelman, we have benefits across domain. So yes, cognition is one of the domains that we have benefits in.
One other thing I'll just add to that -- Holly, is -- one thing that we know is that if you can improve communication, it has a trickle-down effect on improving all other aspects of the disease. As you can imagine, your ability to learn, to communicate, to go into a classroom and communicate either expressively or receptively, this helps with cognition. So it's actually a trickle-down effect too there. But as Holly said, we're very pleased with our cognitive domains and our Bayley-4s assessments, Vineland-3 assessment our as well in the Angelman's program. So we think we'll do just fine in that.
Before turning it over to Kyle, I just want to highlight the fact that -- and sorry if you were going to say this, but rare genetic diseases where there are no treatment options available today are historically underestimated with respect to prevalence, right? Beth reminds me all the little time about how we started with SMA with 35,000 patients for estimate and where we are now?
20,000.
20,000. We are now pushing 100,000 patients with SMA today with the various treatments that are available today. So we don't know what the prevalence is. But we have a real disease-modifying treatment that is going to make a big difference. And Kyle is doing all the -- his team is doing all the pricing work, but it's early days though, right?
Yes, it is. There are estimated to be about 350 patients in the U.S. today. There is an ICD-10 code for this, not always aligned directly to the disease yet. Again, that's part of the education that we need to do. We anticipate knowing where about 150 or so of these patients are, about half of the potential prevalent population.
This is going to be a rare disease price drug, right? So it's going to be greater than $500,000. We don't have a final price point yet. We'll do more work with the payers based on the body of evidence that Holly shared earlier, and making sure that we price it appropriately so that there is unencumbered access for patients and for physicians to be able to get this drug to the patients that need it.
Yale Jen from Laidlaw & Company. I have a question regarding the DAWNZERA. And you guys mentioned that you are in discussion with the payers to accept coverage policy, probably will be done by next year. So two questions here. When do you think -- can you get a little bit more tighter time line for that? And second is that, what specific sort of features or aspects you can share with us for that discussion before you get finalized?
Yes. So the payer discussions are ongoing. Typically, they'll review a class at a certain time. And that's why it takes some time in order to have the formal policy get put in place. The good news is, is that prophylactic treatments are -- have been widely available for quite some time. So a lot of the policies have already been established. It's a question of will they cover DAWNZERA under the policy that's in existence today. So that's the work that we want to do with them.
As we've had already initial conversations, the profile of DAWNZERA is very appealing, the first RNA-based technology that could potentially make a difference for patients, the profile, as we've talked about in terms of efficacy, tolerability and convenience and also the switch data. The switch data is very meaningful to the payers because they want to know when they can stop paying for one treatment and when they can start paying for the next treatment.
And right now, they're telling us that there's quite a bit of overlap in terms of their costs associated with multiple therapies and they would like to do better in that regard. So we've got the right strategy in place and we're working with payers and it's more of just a time and a process element for when they'll review the class.
And any time, maybe second half or first half of next year?
It depends on the payer. That's why I say 2026 just to give a little bit of room, but it really is dependent upon the payers. We've got some that could potentially put policies in place before the end of this year, for example, right? But some of those will take time next year. Just depends on when they get to the review.
But it shouldn't limit the ability for patients to have access to DAWNZERA, right? So the ones that have policies in place physicians know exactly what to do. If it's a prior authorization process, et cetera, they'll be able to support it through that process. And be able to get DAWNZERA through a medical exception process. So it shouldn't limit the ability to have access to the treatment.
We got Debjit next, and then we'll do Shelby and Ryan.
Debjit from Guggenheim. So a couple of questions for Holly and then one for Beth and Brett. But the remarkable NFL reduction, is that unique for SMA? Or can this be extrapolated to triplet expansion diseases like Huntington's?
Number two, if you think about where the neurology portfolio is going, say, 2 years from now, do you think intrathecal dosing is a thing of the past and everything is going to move towards -- or Ionis can move to IV or subcu?
And then more on the business side, given where you are financially, do you think you would need to partner any programs going forward?
All right, neurofilament. So neurofilament, and that remarkable effect in SMA, we've also seen with QALSODY in ALS. So it can happen with other neurodegenerative diseases. In both those instances, they have high levels of baseline neurofilament, quite high.
Huntington, you asked specifically about, and other triplet diseases. Some do have higher neurofilament levels, like SCA1, Huntington is less elevated. And so the question that we don't have data on yet as a field is, in those slight elevation diseases, not the severe elevation, how much of that will be reflected in the treatment effect?
So I think the jury is still out on that. There are some hints that neurofilament can be affected in those diseases, but how much into what magnitude and how that translates, we still need to learn as a field. That said, I'm personally very excited about neurofilament as an unbiased biomarker in these degenerative diseases given our experience with SMA and ALS.
And then to the other question, which I...
Huntington.
The Huntington is -- yes, I think I hit on that one. What was the other question? Sorry.
Just going forward, would you think...
Oh, yes. So subcu -- I think it's going to depend on the program. So there's going to be programs where you want to target and you have a target that you can hit in the whole body that it isn't going to be detrimental to lower it. There's going to be other targets where you just want to hit centrally.
So for example, things like LRRK2 is a target where you want to hit it just centrally because you don't want to target the lung and the kidneys because of on-target liabilities. So there's going to be examples where intrathecal is favorable. There's also once-yearly intrathecal is an attractive approach from the research that we've done. So it will be a mix depending on the indication, depending on exactly what the patients need and what the target is.
But we will be seeing, hopefully, more and more subcu and IV delivered oligonucleotides going forward.
And not all targets are the best targets for systemic administration too. I mean some targets can bring on-target liabilities systemically, and you only want to deliver them into the CNS. There are several examples of that. But we're pushing on both, but we think intrathecal has a long life ahead, especially once we go to semiannual/annual dosing.
As far as partnering, so your question, Debjit, was, do we need to partner? The answer to achieve the vision that -- the expectations that Beth laid out for breaking even, achieving positive and growing cash flow, the answer is no. We don't need to partner. Will we partner? Probably.
We have a prolific R&D engine, and we will continue to prioritize the wholly-owned pipeline, but there may be assets, programs in the future that we believe will take us out of our comfort zone. We may not be the perfect choice to bring these forward to the market ourselves and maybe they fit better with someone else. We have the ability to do that.
And as Beth laid out, there is economic upside to partnering at times, and we'll probably continue to do that. But do we need to do that to achieve the vision that Beth laid out. Is that right?
Yes, that's absolutely right.
This is Shelby working with Luca Issi from RBC. How should we think about pricing for Alexander's disease? And then I know you guys mentioned that this program can kind of help your entry into the neurology space. So how have those interactions been with health care providers? And what were some of their initial reactions on the data?
On the pricing side, we expect it to be rare disease pricing, greater than $500,000. We'll dial in the number as we do more pricing research and obviously announced upon the approval. But with the patient population of several hundred patients, that will probably be an acceptable range and reasonable for payers to cover and reimburse.
And then in terms of the community response, it's overwhelmingly positive. The outreach from the families and parents and patient advocacy organizations and the KOLs has been just overwhelming. Hearing things like "I can breathe for the first time knowing that this is coming." And so it's really wonderful.
Yes, I'll just mention we also have our medical affairs team that's been in the neurology space. And so we're interacting with a lot of the key centers. And the feedback has been very positive from the HCPs. And a lot of questions around how fast will this get to the market and when can we start treating more and more of these patients. So there's a lot of interest in trying to bring the therapy forward quickly.
And also at Ionis, I'll just share with you, every year we do what's called [ Why Week ], why do you do what you do and what does it mean to you? And we had an Alexander disease, a parent that was there and talking about this program, and she subsequently sent a letter to Ionis after the data announcement. And it's very heartwarming.
Ryan?
Ryan Mcelroy here for Mani Foroohar at Leerink Partners. I appreciate you taking the question. Maybe just one more on Angelman. Your Phase III program is obviously enrolling a broader patient population than competitors. I'm just wondering when you think about this commercially, what are your expectations for whether this is predominantly a pediatric treatment or one that obviously can expand into adult patients?
And then just separately, thinking about the Phase III salanersen trial, is that one where we'd see a head-to-head against SPINRAZA? Is this a placebo-controlled trial? How are you guys thinking about that development plan?
So let me take the first one. Biogen has not released details on what that Phase III trial design will look like. That will come out probably early next year. So stay tuned for that.
In Angelman, for that, it is a disease of all ages. Individuals are affected for their entire lives. And what we're seeing in the HALOS is the adults are responding as well as the children. And so given that we are seeing that positive results -- response, and it's not entirely surprising, because UBE3A is a protein that's involved in synaptic health and so that we even saw this in preclinical models, even in adult brains, if you improve that synaptic health, you can have growth in repair. And so because of that, really treating the entire Angelman community should be our goal. And that is our goal at Ionis.
Okay. I think we have time for one or two more questions. Jay?
Jay Olson, Oppenheimer. For your BBB penetrant ASOs, can you compare and contrast your two approaches, VHH antibodies versus bicycle peptides? What are the pros and cons of each? Or does it depend on the specific program?
Yes. They're on a different time line. So the VHH program is more advanced, and then the BBB is coming. We're still in development to optimize that, to make that able to do the delivery that we wanted to do to differentiate. So right now, we're really focusing on VHH for the clinical candidates just given the profile that we have in the advancement. Eventually, the idea that the bicycle is going to circumvent that and really take over for all the future programs, if we can get everything to work the way we want it to work.
Yes. We're taking, as Holly said, multiple approaches. They are on different time lines and we are moving urgently to move our first BBB for proof of concept in the clinic. So the VHH will probably be the first.
The bicycle, think about GalNAc for the liver, the molecular weight of GalNac. That's what bicycle brings to us, a very low molecular way ligand attached to an ASO siRNA that offers a lot of advantages from a manufacturing standpoint, cost standpoint. Also the ability to use low-volume injection, subcutaneous, because it's such low molecular weight.
So we like both platforms. We are doing head-to-head comparisons, but one is ahead of the other based on pure time lines.
This is Zaki on for Akash at Jefferies. Just one on Angelman's. So with kind of thinking through the broader -- the larger Phase III trial that you're doing, is there anything we should know about maybe heterogeneity in response among the Bailey-4 sub-domains that prioritized choosing expressive communication?
And then number two, just on the TRYNGOLZA launch into sHTG, I'm not sure like how much you've commented so far, but just any sense on the cadence there given that there is overlap in the prescribers between FCS and sHTG? And how much your -- the current manufacturing footprint can address that entire sHTG population relative to what we have now?
Yes. So for the Angelman question, for the Bailey data, we shared last year the 6-month data, the end of the MAD data, and there we could see a response across the Bailey domain. The expressive communication had the biggest change from baseline because the baseline is stable, where in the cognition domain, for example, there is still an improvement over the younger age groups. There is still that growth that's happening. And so having that delta is attractive from an endpoint perspective. But it's also that this is a domain that is most important for families.
And as Brett mentioned earlier, this is also a domain that involves all different functions. You need to have motor skills to be able for speech and expression. You need to have cognition to be able to understand what is being said so that you can respond. And so it's a domain that even though it's a single measure on the Bailey, it's taking into account a lot of aspects of neuro development. And so it's very attractive from that perspective as well.
And on the FCS launch into sHTG, you're exactly right, it's the same call points, right? It's cardiology, endocrinology and lipidologist. As I mentioned, we were reaching about 3,000 today with our current sales team. We're going to expand our TRYNGOLZA FCS team in order to reach 20,000 HCPs that are high treaters of sHTG. We've just hired our management team and that team is in place. We expect to have the broader team in place the first half of next year.
That's going to allow us to educate more broadly on sHTG, and most importantly, get more patients that are diagnosed with FCS on to TRYNGOLZA next year, which is going to be our number one priority. So those scaling of the team and capabilities are underway, and we're very excited about the talent that we're attracting into the organization.
If somebody wants to touch on manufacturing, I mean we're -- for sHTG, we're able to...
We are in great shape. I mean we have no issues with manufacturing. We're ready to -- we'll be ready to launch upon approval in the second half of next year. We're in good shape.
Okay. With that, I think we're running out of time. So I'll thank our panelists for coming up here and answering questions. And I'll ask Brett to give us views on what he really thinks about the future of Ionis right now.
Well, I don't know about that. I think we've been doing that all morning. First of all, let me thank all of you for taking your times out of your very busy schedules for spending a few hours with us today and hearing about the great progress we're making at Ionis.
So a couple of take-home messages, and I'll show a couple of slides and we'll be done and let you go back to your busy schedules. First of all, I think what you saw today was an incredibly deeply talented bench of people at Ionis that we came up here and presented to you how committed they are to drive incredible accelerating value for patients, for shareholders, for all stakeholders.
And I could tell you that, back home in Carlsbad, they're all like that. Carlsbad, Boston, Dublin across the globe, they're all like that. They are committed to drive value for patients and for all of our stakeholders.
The second thing that you saw today was that we've had a great deal of success over the last couple of years. But we've just scratched the surface. We're just at the very beginning. We are now entering into a period of accelerating growth for Ionis that's going to be sustainable well into the future.
These are just some of the expectations for real value-driving events that are coming next year as a reminder, because we did cover a lot today. We're anticipating 2 NDA submissions next year, both of which are supporting 2 independent commercial launches next year: severe hypertriglyceridemia for olezarsen and zilganersen for Alexander disease.
We are also expecting next year five Phase III data readouts from our wholly owned and our partnered pipeline next year, that is setting us up for a continuous accelerated or continuous expectations for Phase III data readouts next year and product approvals there to follow. We're also expecting multiple Phase II readouts next year from our mid-stage pipeline that, if successful, then we'll move into Phase III pivotal studies, both from -- these are all from our wholly owned pipeline today.
And we believe that these will set us up for at least two initiations of pivotal studies, our Phase III studies for next year, to drive continued success in Phase III readouts and to the market.
As I mentioned in my introduction and as you saw today, we are highly focused at Ionis to drive success. Therapeutically, we are focused on two therapeutic areas: cardiometabolic diseases and neurological diseases. We're leading the way with oligonucleotide-based therapeutics today, targeting RNA. And we're continuing to invest in these platforms to ensure continued success well into the future with new technologies, and you heard about that from Sam and you heard that from Holly as well today.
And all of this is setting us up for a really, really attractive financial picture for years to come. Accelerating revenue growth is on the way with a clear path to sustain positive cash flow, as Beth took you through just a few moments ago.
So with that, I'll just close with this final slide. Again, thanking all of you for your time today, listening to the great progress we're making at Ionis. We are well on our way for accelerated value creation at Ionis based on everything we're doing and our commitment to drive success going forward and to achieve our vision to transform -- to be the leaders in transforming human health through RNA targeted medicines. So thank you, everybody, and have a great day.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Shareholder/Analyst Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Shareholder/Analyst Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Takeaway: Ionis stellt sich als vollständig integriertes, kommerzielles Biotech dar: erste unabhängige Launches (TRYNGOLZA, DAWNZERA) laufen, kern‑Phase‑III‑Ergebnisse (olezarsen CORE/CORE2) zeigen starke TG‑Senkungen und 85% weniger Pankreatitis, zilganersen hat positive pivotaldaten; klarer Fahrplan zu weiteren Zulassungen und Ziel: nachhaltiger positiver Cash‑Flow.
🔝 Strategische Highlights
- Therapiefokus: Konzentration auf zwei Bereiche — Neurologie und Cardiometabolik — mit 11 Neurologie‑Programmen und mehreren späten kardiometabolischen Assets.
- Kommerzialisierung: Erste eigenständige Launch‑Erfahrungen; Omnichannel/Patient‑Support (Ionis Every Step) und Ausbau der Außendienstkapazität für sHTG geplant.
- Plattform & Pipeline: Ausbau der Technologie‑palette (ASO, siRNA, NMA‑Chemie, BBB‑Liganden) zur Verlängerung der Dosisintervalle und Erschließung neuer Zielgewebe.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- olezarsen: CORE/CORE2: ~72% placebo‑korrigierte TG‑Reduktion; gepoolt 85% relative Reduktion von akuter Pankreatitis; sNDA‑Plan bis Jahresende, Ziellaunch 2H/2026.
- zilganersen & Angelman: Pivotaldaten positiv; NDA‑Vorbereitung für Einreichung Anfang 2026; Launch‑Vorbereitung läuft.
- ION775 & BBB: ION775 (apoC‑III siRNA) zeigt langlebige Wirkungen in Phase‑I‑Interimsdaten; BBB‑Ansätze (VHH, Bicycle) in präklinischer/klinischer Vorarbeit.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Marktgröße: sHTG‑Prävalenz ~3 Mio. US‑Patienten, Beachhead ≈1 Mio. „High‑risk“; FCS ≈3.000 Patienten — Ziel: prioritäre Behandlung der Hochrisiko‑Segmente.
- Payer & Preis: Diskussionen laufen; Unternehmens‑Ballpark für sHTG‑Pricing genannt (orientierungsweise $10k–$20k/Jahr), detaillierte Preis‑/Zugangsarbeit bis Zulassung.
- Differenzierung: ION775 zielt vorrangig auf deutlich längere Dosisintervalle als olezarsen; weitere Fragen zu Lifecycle‑Management und Head‑to‑head‑Strategien blieben offen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Relevanz: Innovation Day liefert konkrete Near‑Term‑Katalysatoren: olezarsen (sNDA, 2H/2026), zilganersen (NDA 2026), plus mehrere Phase‑III/II Readouts. Hoher klinischer Hebel, aber Abhängigkeit von regulatorischer Bewertung, Launch‑execution und Payer‑Akzeptanz. Für Aktionäre: hohes Upside‑Potenzial bei marktgerechter Umsetzung; erhöhtes Risiko bei Zulassung/Zugangs‑Hürden bleibt bestehen.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
All right. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us at the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference. I'm Mike Ulz, one of the Biotech analysts here, and it's my pleasure to introduce Brett Monia, our CEO from Ionis Pharmaceuticals. But before we get started, I just need to read a quick disclosure statement for important disclosures. Please see the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative.
With that, Brett, thanks for joining us today. We really appreciate it. And maybe to kick things off, if you could just give an introduction to Ionis maybe for people that are less familiar with your story?
Yes. Thanks, Mike. Good afternoon, everybody. It's a pleasure to be here. So Ionis, we are a genetic medicines company focused on RNA targeted medicines, of course, with 7 approved -- FDA-approved medicines on the market today for severe, rare genetic diseases and a pipeline -- a deep pipeline that has today 9 Phase III programs that are due to readout this year, next year and for several years to come.
We've had extraordinary progress over the last -- a little bit in the last couple of years, especially this year, really, really exciting results this year from our pipeline. It was -- it began in the late December, approval of Tryngolza, the first-ever FDA-approved medicine for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, FCS. This is a disease -- a genetic disease in which patients suffer from severely elevated triglycerides and they have all kinds of comorbidities but the biggest risk is potentially fatal acute pancreatitis.
That launch is off to a great start. It's our first independent commercial launch in our history. And then just last week, we reported second -- results for a Phase III program for a second indication for Tryngolza, olezarsen for a broad patient population, nonrare prevalent disease, called severe hypertriglyceridemia in which we really had blockbuster amazing results from that program. And we're looking forward to filing the NDA -- supplemental NDA for that program by the end of the year. And just 3 weeks ago, we had approval of our second independent launch, a medicine called DAWNZERA for hereditary angioedema, and that launch is now underway.
So we're really proud of the great progress we're making, and it's setting us up for a lot more exciting news to come later in the second half of this year and well into next year.
Great. Thanks for that introduction. And obviously, you've had a lot of success recently launching your first drug and getting the second drug approved as you mentioned, but I thought maybe we could start with Tryngolza in FCS. You mentioned you're off to a strong start there. It's only been 2 quarters so far, but you've sort of put up numbers ahead of expectations. So maybe talk a little bit about what's behind that? What's driving that?
Yes. So again, the first ever FDA-approved medicine for this severe debilitating disease, familial chylomicronemia syndrome, FCS. The launch is off to a very strong start, has really exceeded all external consensus estimates -- estimations across the board with $26 million in revenue through the first 2 quarters and we've now increased our guidance for the community to be in the $75 million to $80 million range for the year. Pretty remarkable for this rare disease that afflicts about 3,000 people in the United States.
The reason for the success is, of course, it starts with the drug profile. It's really shown -- has shown amazing triglyceride reductions in FCS patients with substantial reductions in acute pancreatitis and substantial reductions in hospitalizations as well for these patients. So it's a great drug profile, very well tolerated, very convenient for individuals, the ability to self-administer using a simple auto-injector once per month.
So it starts there. The other success that we've had, of course, is with our commercial organization, and our medical organization, doing really a fabulous job in identifying patients to identify and confirm that they are indeed FCS patients, getting them on to drug quickly and really having very positive payer interactions, whether it be government coverage or commercial coverage, it's all going very well. And then lastly, the team has done an outstanding job in converting patients that were in our expanded access program in the U.S. as well as from our clinical trials, converting them over to commercial drug as well. So all that has really contributed to a very successful launch to date. And we expect the launch to continue to go well through this year and well into next year ahead of our expected launch in severe hypertriglyceridemia.
And you mentioned the groundbreaking results you recently had in sHTG. But before we dig into some of those results, maybe just talk a little bit about the market opportunity in terms of the patient population and what the unmet need looks like there?
Yes. We couldn't be more pleased with the results of the Phase III trials CORE and CORE2 in patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia that we announced the day after Labor Day. Like FCS, these patients, these individuals suffer from a whole host of problems due to severely elevated triglycerides. Like FCS patients, their biggest risk is a potentially fatal, almost always debilitating attack of the pancreas and acute pancreatitis attack, severe inflammation of the pancreas.
Unlike FCS, this is a prevalent disease. It afflicts millions of people in the United States who have triglycerides above 500 milligrams per deciliter, which is the definition of severe hypertriglyceridemia. Many of these patients are in the 1,000s as were in our trial. And there are no effective treatment options available for these patients today.
Current treatments for sHTG are generic medicines like fibrates, omega-3 fatty acids, statins, what have you. They have very mild effects on reducing triglycerides in severely elevated conditions. The results we announced last week were groundbreaking, validating all kinds of hypotheses that have been in the medical community for decades that if you lower triglycerides enough in this patient population, that you can actually reduce the risk of acute pancreatitis.
So we've been believed, never been proven. We proved it. Not only did we achieve substantial reductions in triglycerides of 72% mean triglyceride reduction on top of standard of care in our CORE trial, we also demonstrated an 85% statistically significant reduction in acute pancreatitis events in the trial, all with favorable safety and tolerability. So really groundbreaking results that we couldn't be more pleased with.
Can you just talk about acute pancreatitis and sort of the analysis you did there and how sort of combine the two studies and how unique that was?
Yes. We really took an innovative approach, highly innovative approach to the clinical trial design to maximize the probability that we would be able to see at least favorable trends in reducing acute pancreatitis, let alone statistical significance in reducing it.
So there's two trials -- two pivotal trials, CORE and CORE2, both were 12 months long, in total a little over 1,000 patients with severely elevated triglycerides, 13% to 22%, depending on the trial had a history of acute pancreatitis in the last 10 years. The primary endpoint in both CORE and CORE2 was at 6 months and that was on triglycerides compared to placebo.
We evaluated two doses, I forgot to mention that, 50 milligrams, 80 milligrams in placebo. The primary endpoint in triglycerides was at 6 months. That's where we achieved the 72% mean reductions in CORE that I mentioned before. However, to maximize the probability of a successful outcome in acute pancreatitis, we wanted to power the study as strongly as possible. So we let the studies go out for the AP endpoint, a key secondary endpoint at 12 months. And we combined CORE and CORE2 treatment arms, olezarsen versus the combined CORE and CORE2 placebo. And that really innovative design allowed us to really demonstrate highly statistically significant reductions in acute pancreatitis. That, of course, was all prespecified and agreed to with the FDA as an appropriate endpoint in the trial.
You shared a lot of the top line results, but you plan to share some detailed data, I think, later this year at some point. Maybe talk a little bit about that and if there's other additional analyses you plan to include in that or any other thing we should be looking out further?
Yes, we're looking forward to it. We're really looking forward to sharing the full data set at a medical meeting in the second half of this year. There are some obvious meetings to target. We're hoping to get on late-breaking clinical trial opportunities to present the data. Also, we'll look to present a simultaneous publication as well for the full data set.
What we're looking to present, of course, are the details, not just on triglyceride lowering on acute pancreatitis, including a number of events in the trial, events in CORE versus CORE2, 50 milligram dose versus 80 milligram dose, it all looks very good. And we're looking forward to sharing that. The time course for reductions of acute pancreatitis compared to placebo history versus non -- patients without a history of acute pancreatitis.
So all that will come. But the other secondary endpoints will be important too, right? Not only will we share what I think is very impressive reductions in apoC-III, the target for olezarsen apoB100, a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, remnant cholesterol and so on. We're also going to share results on percentage of patients that we actually got below 500 milligrams per deciliter, which means that we got them below the definition of severe hypertriglyceridemia. Also, the percentage of patients we got below 150 milligrams per deciliter, which now means that you have normal triglycerides. And the results are impressive. So all those secondary endpoints will be shared along with a good update on, of course, the favorable safety and tolerability.
Okay. So more to look forward to from the data. And I guess if you could talk about next steps from here on the regulatory front and kind of what are the pieces of the puzzle to sort of get that moving forward?
The team is actively -- they actually started preparing some of the NDA material, supplemental NDA materials ahead of the data readout to get the submission completed as rapidly as possible. We'll get that done by the end of the year. We're -- our base case right now, we're assuming a standard supplemental NDA review of 10 months, which puts us in an approval and launch in the early fourth quarter of next year.
In addition, we're working through the presentation of source, of course, and very importantly, our commercial organization has already begun building the commercial team to launch sHTG, building off of the FCS commercial team. And all that will be in place in the first half -- by the first half of next year.
In terms of adding to your commercial infrastructure, maybe give a little bit more detail around that in terms of what needs to be done and how big a lift that is from here?
Yes. So we -- right now, we have about 30 sales members in the field for FCS that will grow to somewhere 200 or maybe above 200 for the severe hypertriglyceridemia to cover about 20,000 HCPs in the U.S. that are rapidly -- that are currently managing sHTG patients. These are your lipid specialists, cardiologists, endocrinologists. We're also building our omnichannel. We have omnichannel capabilities in place already.
We're expanding that to make sure we reach as many HCPs as possible. We're doing -- we're conducting extensive market research on pricing. We -- currently, Tryngolza is priced at a rare disease price. For FCS, that will come down to match a prevalent disease, and we have all that work to do, we'll share that. Those are our conclusions when we're getting ready to launch next year.
So a lot to do between now and next year to make -- ensure that we fully take full advantage and maximize our success for this blockbuster opportunity, which we have the first drug ever to really meaningfully address severe hypertriglyceridemia.
You mentioned pricing, and I just wanted to get your maybe updated thoughts there, if you have any? In the past, you sort of suggested a range for sHTG but obviously, now you have very strong AP reduction as well. How does that impact your thinking on where you can price it.
Yes. We have a lot of work to do now that we have the data. So now comes the time to roll up our sleeves and really get the work done. Obviously, having such strong triglyceride reduction with outcome data in acute pancreatitis, gives us meaningful leverage to optimize the price in the U.S. as well as in Europe, where outcome data is critically important.
So the AP data in Europe for pricing and reimbursement is going to be absolutely -- is very helpful. We will settle on a price to maximize access for the patients, to maximize the number of patients that have easy access to olezarsen while also making sure that we receive the full value that this drug is really providing. So a lot of work to do there. Some of the numbers that we put out there in the past were before we had data and now we have the data. So now it's really time to refine our -- sharpen our pencils and really refine our conclusions on pricing. So a lot of work to do there.
Okay. Great. And maybe we can shift to your second independent launch, DAWNZERA, for HAE approved a couple of weeks ago now. Maybe talk a little bit about the market opportunity there and some of the challenges that these patients with HAE are currently facing?
Yes. Unlike Tryngolza for FCS, where we are first FDA-approved medicine, olezarsen for sHTG were first meaningful treatment for sHTG that we expect to be approved by the FDA next year. HAE prophylaxis is an indication where there are several prophylactic treatments already on the market. So it's very different. With that said, we believe that DAWNZERA has the profile to be the treatment of choice for many patients who suffer with hereditary angioedema. What we know is despite the fact that there are prophylactic treatments on the market today, patients are substantially, significantly underserved.
They're unsatisfied with current treatments. They're unsatisfied with the efficacy. They're still getting attacks, unpredictable debilitating attacks that can happen any time without no known triggers. They are unsatisfied with tolerability profiles of current prophylactic treatments and the convenience. They're unsatisfied with the inconvenience of current treatments, at least some of them.
Donidalorsen now being launched with a brand name of DAWNZERA checks all three of those boxes. We have shown really remarkable efficacy that's far above 80% reductions in HAE attacks in our Phase III study, that grew into the 90% reduction of attack in our long-term open-label extension studies out to a year, so a very durable efficacy, excellent tolerability and the convenience of using a simple auto-injector self-administered once every 4 weeks or once every 8 weeks, it's up to the patient and the HCP to decide what treatment algorithm they prefer.
Not surprisingly, with current prophylactic treatments, what we're seeing and what's been published is that around 20% of patients are switching treatments in the U.S. today as they're unsatisfied. We think we can take advantage of that. A recent Harris Poll that was conducted shows that 9 out of 10 patients with HAE are very much willing to try another treatment option if it becomes available that they think could satisfy their unmet needs, efficacy, tolerability or convenience.
And in fact, to that end, recognizing that patients are unsatisfied with their current prophy treatments, we set out to address that directly by conducting a Switch study.
Another innovative trial design that we implemented that -- in which we invited patients from the three main prophy treatments that are on the market today in the United States, to come on to a clinical trial in which they got to switch over to DAWNZERA and did so -- and what we found was that patients enrolled and signed up for the clinical trial very quickly, not surprisingly, since they're unsatisfied.
We have Phase II data that they saw already, and they're -- I assume they were impressed with the data. And what we found in that trial was not only were we able to prevent any gaps in protection when we wean them off of one treatment and wean them on to DAWNZERA. We were able to reduce their attack rate further compared to their baseline values of 64%. And at the end of that trial, they were asked to fill out an independent survey, a questionnaire on how they felt about their current treatment versus the previous treatment and 84% of patients concluded that they preferred DAWNZERA over their previous treatments for various combinations of efficacy, tolerability and convenience.
So we think this drug, although, we're coming into a market that has other treatments there already has the potential to be a preferred treatment of choice for many patients and our team, we're now -- we got approval 3 weeks ago. We got drug in channel within a week and prescriptions have been written and drug is with patients already, really nice operation. We've estimated in the U.S. market peak sales of $500 million for Ionis.
And you mentioned only [indiscernible] approved a couple of weeks ago, you've got product in the channel already. Any sort of early feedback you're hearing or anything you can share there?
Too early on the launch to add any color to that. But what I can tell you is that the sentiment in the HAE community has been very positive, very complementary. We've been working very closely with the HAE Association and other patient groups. And we've been actually very much moved, overwhelmed, at times with the positivity that we've received from the community and how excited they are about DAWNZERA. So we think we're going to leverage that sentiment and execute on our launch, but it's a little early to comment on any color on the launch.
Got it. Maybe we can shift gears a little bit now to WAINUA and maybe start with TTR-PN first and just talk a little bit about some of the recent trends you're seeing there.
Yes. So just to level set eplontersen, WAINUA, the brand name, WAINUA, was developed by Ionis in our first-ever co-development, co-commercialization partnership, that is with AstraZeneca. And we're developing it for two indications, the hereditary polyneuropathy indication, TTR polyneuropathy indication and the TTR cardiomyopathy population. 50,000 patients polyneuropathy, upwards of 500,000 plus in cardiomyopathy. The polyneuropathy indication was approved at the very end of 2023 and the launch has gone well.
We believe that based on the overall drug profile, which has been shown for actually not just halting of disease but actually a reversal and improvement of disease in many cases, coupled with the convenience of self-administered auto-injector once per month using a low-volume painless injection has resonated very well with the patient community. So the launch is going well. We're seeing really substantial demand for WAINUA for HATTR polyneuropathy. And we think that the benefits that we're seeing there or the positive sentiment we're seeing there for polyneuropathy is going to resonate and translate very well once we get to the cardiomyopathy indication, not too far down the road.
Maybe we can continue on just the cardiomyopathy there. There's two approved products there, one recent -- or multiple, three, sorry, with two recently launched earlier this year. Just -- any thoughts on the market opportunity a year ago versus how you're thinking now? Is it more optimistic than in the past potentially?
It is. It's a growth market. It's clear that this -- the size of this market, it continues to grow with new entrants coming into the market. It's been estimated to be $20 billion, $30 billion, $40 billion and growing. And we believe that WAINUA, eplontersen, will be treatment of choice and do very well in this market once we get there for cardiomyopathy.
There's two classes of mechanisms. There's a silencer class like eplontersen, and then there's the stabilizer class. And both are shown -- both are showing great promise. And obviously, tafamidis first as a stabilizer has proven to be successful on the market. We believe that the silencer class is going to do very well. We believe in the mechanism, will be superior to other mechanisms and will be the preferred treatment of choice for -- as first-line treatment as well as for patients that progress on stabilizers and all patients eventually progress on stabilizers that's been shown as well as for combination usage with stabilizers.
The mechanisms can be -- clearly should be complementary to each other. Our cardiomyopathy Phase III study is the largest study by far, that has been ever conducted in TTR cardiomyopathy with more than -- with 1,400 patients in that study. We have a very strong mix of combination with tafamidis as well as monotherapy in the study. And we believe that when we read this study out in the second half of next year, that we're going to have the richest data set, compelling data set not only in the overall population, which is CV mortality and hospitalizations, but in the subgroups that include combination usage with tafamidis, which is very important because tafamidis is the treatment of choice today in the U.S. market and globally really. And having that data for physicians to see the benefits of combination usage is going to go a long way.
And we're going to be the ones in the best position to have the best data. So potential benefits of the combination usage.
Got it. Later this year, you're also planning an Innovation Day, I think, in October, if I remember. Maybe just talk about what we should expect?
Yes. In October, we're going to have what we used to call in the past R&D Day, give people a flavor for what this is, but we're more than R&D now as a fully integrated commercial stage biotech company.
So we rebranded it as Innovation Day. We're going to provide a really meaningful update on the pipeline, new pipeline products actually, new pipeline programs that we're going to discuss that are in the cardiometabolic space, in the neurology space, our two main franchises. We're also going to share some remarkable progress we're making in the technology, including the efforts we're making in medicinal chemistry that is allowing us to dose much less frequently.
So increased durability in different programs. An example I'll highlight is the recent data that our partner, Biogen shared for our SMA program, salanersen, using Ionis novel chemistry that is supporting once per year intrathecal dosing for SMA and that Phase III study is going to start next year.
We have other programs that are designed to do similar things as salanersen is doing with IT delivery for CNS diseases once per year. We're going to talk a little bit about that, new targets for -- in technology advancements for targeting neuromuscular diseases, skeletal muscle, heart failure, cardiac myocytes and delivering our drugs across the blood-brain barrier to the CNS. We'll also talk quite a bit about our commercial success to date with Tryngolza.
The work we're doing with DAWNZERA and our strategy for sHTG and our strategy for our -- one of our -- one of the leading neurology franchises of anybody, what the strategy will be for upcoming launches for -- expected launches for Angelman syndrome, in Alexander disease to name just two of many. And then, of course, our financial strategy, our financial expectations. We are very much committed to be self-sustaining, cash flow positive with continued revenue growth year-over-year in the near term.
And we will also share our plan to get there and what it will take to get there in the near term. So very much looking forward to it. I hope folks can join us.
Yes. So you have a very sort of robust pipeline that you're going to highlight and maybe just a big picture strategy question. How do you balance deciding whether to sort of advance some of these programs on your own versus partnering? Or how do you think about that going forward?
We take a very proactive, aggressive approach to prioritizing our pipeline that starts back in research. So drug discovery prioritization is happening in a formal active way. And then we take that all the way through and we check in on all those programs as they're progressing through IND-supporting tox studies, are they still the priorities that we set, Phase I, Phase II, Phase III and so forth.
Today, our prioritization process is very different than what it used to be many years ago when we were a company that was focused on partnering our programs. Today, our top priority and prioritization is what are we going to keep, what are we going to -- how are we going to build our -- continue to build our wholly-owned pipeline, what are the top priorities? Where can we build the synergism -- synergies, I should say, with like our neurology franchise.
Synergies, cardiovascular, cardiometabolic franchise, follow-on programs, you'll hear a little bit about Innovation Day too. We're using some of the new chemistries and mechanisms we're developing at Ionis. We have follow-on programs to ensure that the investments we're making in our lead programs launched or to be launched are going to have a lot of longevity for years to come with new chemistries, new molecules against those targets and programs.
So those are part of the prioritization exercise. At the end of the day, there will always -- so that's the top priority. There will always be programs that we feel aren't worth the resources, everybody has limited resources, and we have -- we are no different. And if we don't believe that a program will make the cut, we will choose to partner it to make sure that the drug is available for -- gets to patients and it brings additional revenue and upside to Ionis.
So -- or other situations, we may learn something new during the course of drug development that we may deprioritize the program and increase priority. But the take-home message is the #1 -- the top priority is to build a wholly-owned pipeline to ensure we're really generating greatest value for shareholders, for patients and for Ionis.
Yes, may we could ask -- we got a few minutes left here. So maybe just Alexander disease, you're going to have some data coming up later this year. Maybe talk about what to expect and sort of the market opportunity around that.
Yes. Another example of our leading neurology franchise in addition to -- it's a proven platform for the work we've done over the years in CNS diseases starting with SPINRAZA for SMA and QALSODY for ALS, SOD1 ALS, our tau program for Alzheimer's disease, all really shown remarkable benefit in the clinic.
It's 1 of 13 drugs in development for CNS diseases for rare like Huntington's, broad like Alzheimer's, more than half are wholly owned today. This is a -- Alexander's disease is an ultrarare leukodystrophy, genetically caused by overproduction of a protein called GFAP. And we've developed a drug that lowers GFAP, normalizes it in preclinical models and has really remarkable preclinical data. And we took on another example of a very innovative trial design that we came up with at Ionis.
Recognizing the ultra-rare nature of this disease we felt that it was appropriate to do one clinical trial, right, not to do a Phase I, II study and then a Phase III study, but to go right in there, utilizing natural history data to our benefit that we have developed over the years, conducted a trial that we think could show benefit in patients by targeting GFAP in this trial.
So it's a very novel design, primary endpoint, it's about 70 patients or so, placebo-controlled single-dose level. And the primary endpoint in the study is a 10-minute meter distance -- walk distance. These patients suffer from major motor function disorders, cognitive disorders, and other problems. It can be typically fatal and also massive seizures that are continuous throughout life.
So our primary endpoint is a motor function test, 10-meter walk test, and we're going to have that data in the second half of this year, and we're hopeful the data will be strong enough to support an NDA submission early next year.
Great. It looks like we're just about out of time. So why don't we wrap it up there. Thanks so much, Brett. Appreciate your time.
Thank you, Mike.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Ionis positioniert sich als kommerziell skalierbares RNA-Medikamente-Unternehmen: 7 zugelassene Produkte, zwei jüngste Eigenlaunches (Tryngolza bei FCS, DAWNZERA bei HAE) und bahnbrechende Phase‑III‑Ergebnisse für olezarsen in severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG) mit klaren kommerziellen Auslösern.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Tryngolza: Starker Launch mit $26M Umsatz in ersten zwei Quartalen; Jahresguidance auf $75–80M angehoben (FCS = familial chylomicronemia syndrome).
- Olezarsen: CORE/CORE2: 72% mittlere Triglycerid‑Reduktion; 85% Reduktion von akuten Pankreatitis‑Ereignissen (AP = acute pancreatitis); sNDA (supplemental New Drug Application) geplant bis Jahresende.
- Kommerz & Pipeline: DAWNZERA‑Launch für hereditary angioedema (HAE) läuft; Ausbau der Außendienstmannschaft auf ~200+ für sHTG; Innovation Day im Oktober und mehrere Phase‑III‑Katalysatoren angekündigt.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Klinisch bedeutsame Outcome‑Signale: olezarsen zeigte neben TG‑Senkung erstmals statistisch signifikante Reduktion von AP; vollständige Daten kommen H2 auf einer medizinischen Tagung; sNDA‑Einreichung bis Jahresende, Standard‑Review von 10 Monaten erwartet.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Launchtreiber: Erklärte Gründe für Tryngolza‑Erfolg: überlegene Wirksamkeit, gute Tolerabilität, einfache Monats‑Selbstinjektion, starke Umstellung aus Studien/Expanded‑Access und positive Kostenträger‑Interaktionen.
- Daten & Timeline: Detaillierte olezarsen‑Analysen (50 vs. 80 mg, Zeitverlauf, Subgruppen, Anteil unter 500/150 mg/dl) werden H2 publiziert; sNDA/zulassungszeitplan skizziert, aber exakte Zulassungsdaten offen.
- Preis/Marktzugang: Management vermeidet konkrete Preisangaben für sHTG; betont Verhandlungsansatz, Preisbildungsarbeit begonnen, Ziel: Balance zwischen Zugang und Wertrealisierung.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Mehrere positive Near‑Term‑Katalysatoren (olezarsen‑Daten + sNDA, WAINUA/TTR‑Cardio Readout, Innovation Day) senken Entwicklungsrisiko und schaffen Wachstumsoptionen; Hauptrisiken bleiben Preisbildung, Erstattung und kommerzielle Ausführung bei breiterer Indikation.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — H.C. Wainwright 27th Annual Global Investment Conference
1. Question Answer
Hello, everyone. My name is Mitchell Kapoor. I'm a senior biotech analyst at H.C. Wainright. I'm joined today by Brett Monia, the CEO of Ionis Pharmaceuticals. Brett, thank you so much for joining us today.
Thank you. It's great to be here.
So maybe to set the stage for our discussion. You could just give an overview of where the company is at today. You've had a lot of recent updates, big pipeline. But what's the focus of Ionis today? What are the key initiatives and we can go from there?
Yes, wow, we've enjoyed some extraordinary success progress, over the last couple of years, really highlighted by this year, where we've had -- some recent, a big, big successful outcomes. But just -- just 3 weeks ago, we had DAWNZERA, the first ever RNA-targeted medicine for prophylactic treatment of hereditary angioedema approved by the FDA and we can talk about that.
We're well into the launch now executing operationally. And although it's early days, it's going well. And of course, just last week, right after Labor Day weekend, we shared top line data from our olezarsen Phase III study in severe hypertriglyceridemia. Remarkable outcome for this prevalent disease that really is in desperate need for more effective treatments to manage triglycerides and acute pancreatitis.
Truly remarkable outcome in that study and we're preparing for a supplemental NDA and to get that drug approved on the heels of the first indication for that medicine, Tryngolza which is now launched for familial chylomicronemia syndrome or FCS.
So that's just the tip of the iceberg, but there's been a lot of success and the pipeline continues to deliver over and over again.
Great. So with the limited time that we have today, a lot of it will focus on olezarsen and DAWNZERA just because it's the most recent updates for the company, a lot of focus on that. One of the most interesting things that came out of the CORE and CORE2 studies recently was the 90% roll over into the open label extension, which kind of highlights the patient appetite for olezarsen in the SHTG population. Is there anything you can say about you know, now that these patients are in the open-label extension, what are you seeing in terms of persistence adherence and tolerability in these patients? And how do you think it will predict real-world use of olezarsen?
Yes. It's really remarkable. A study that enrolled more than 1,000 patients has such a high enrollment rate into the open-label extension a 12-month study, more than 90% as you said, have elected to roll into the open-label extension. And I think it really reflects the first of all the excellent tolerability in the safety profile that olezarsen has demonstrated.
But also recognition by these patients that they want -- they need more effective treatments to manage severely elevated triglycerides. Remember, most of these patients were on treatment, right, to manage SHTG and they're inadequate. So they already sold that they need better treatments. They're on fibrates, omega-3, fatty acids, statins and so on. And yet they still elected to enroll into the study.
So they get it. They get the need to reduce the risk of acute pancreatitis that can be fatal, to reduce the risk of diabetes, or organ failure and so on. So I think it reflects the tolerability profile and the severe the serious unmet need for more effective treatments to manage severely elevated triglycerides.
Great. And yes, the acute pancreatitis production is a huge potential impact on commercialization. You showed 85% acute pancreatitis production. The next question we have is how do you translate that into the payer models? Will you publish formal health economic data to accelerate broad access pr how do you see that playing out with peers?
Well, I mean the results were, like I said, we're incredibly positive. We achieved 72% mean reductions of triglycerides on top of standard of care in these patients with triglycerides in the order of 800 or 900 or so in our studies and with an 85% reduction in an acute pancreatitis versus placebo, highly statistically significant in the first time ever demonstrated.
Now in the HCP community, the physicians that treat patients severe hypertriglyceridemia, acute pancreatitis was a remarkable achievement. It's proven a hypothesis that's been out there for decades that if you can lower triglycerides in this patient population, we get them at arm's rate for acute pancreatitis, but they are already be convinced that you need to lower triglycerides in this patient population to do so substantially.
But on the payer side of things. And on the pricing side of things, having that acute pancreatitis data is incredibly important to really demonstrate not just the reduction in biomarker, triglycerides, which have been linked to AP, but actually to show to payers that you're going to keep patients out of the hospital, prevent mortality potentially, prevent recurrent acute pancreatitis, which is common in this patient population for years and years to come if you can just manage the triglycerides.
So from a payer and endpoint, it's going to be incredibly important to get coverage quickly for patients and also it allows us to -- it gives us leverage for optimizing pricing once we get to that highly prevalent disease or condition severe hypertriglyceridemia.
And then outside the U.S., of course, outcome data is often even more important to drive payer and pricing because the desire to have outcome data much more in Europe and elsewhere compared to the U.S. So very important for payer, very important for pricing and truly remarkable demonstration has never been shown before.
Absolutely. And we think that's an amazing data and assuming it receives approval in the SHTG population. We're seeing 3 entry points, and I think maybe that's been corroborated by some of your statements, but would be curious to hear your thoughts on the patients who are above 500 mg per deciliter without prior AP. Those who are between 880 mg and 1,000 mg at very high risk even without a history of AP and then the patients who are above 1,000 mg. Where do you see kind of olezarsen making inroads first in SHTG populations and before broadening into the broader 500 mg to 880 mg segment without AP?
So there are more than 3 million people in the United States who are classified as having severe hypertriglyceridemia, that is triglycerides above 500 mg. Normal triglycerides are 150 mg and below. And they are at risk for the problems that I already highlighted. Highlight the most important on the first acute pancreatitis, which can be fatal.
We are going to focus first, our market strategy on the high-risk patient population, like you say. Okay? And that's really the patients that have had a history of acute pancreatitis, right? Because once you've had one event, the chances of having another event goes up exponentially, and it continues after that until you can have complete pancreatic failure and multi-organ failure.
The second -- and it's about 50,000 people in the U.S. The second segment is much larger. It's patients that are above 880 milligrams per deciliter, which is about 600,000 people in the United States. What's so special about 880? 880 is when your triglycerides are packaged almost entirely as chylomicrons, not in lipid particles like VLDL. But they're now on chylomicrons, which cause occlusion of the pancreatic capillaries and causing pancreatic failure.
So these patients are at the highest risk for acute pancreatitis and that's the second segment that we're going to focus on those 2 segments. And then eventually, we will evolve or we will emerge and expand into patients that have high triglycerides and have other comorbidities like diabetes, like heart disease, like hypertension, coupled with their highest triglycerides, puts them at high risk for all kinds of problems, and that will be the sort of where we evolve into and that gets us into the 1 million patient plus segment in the U.S. and then we can expand from there.
But that's certainly, that's a lot to bite off right out of the gate and it's really, really high unmet need. We're really excited about being first to market with this new class of RNA-targeted medicines that are going to really -- that are really going to have a substantial benefit to patients with SHTG.
Yes, and GLP-1s are using some of these populations that may overlap with diabetes, obesity, metabolic syndrome, these overlap with SHTG but they have -- GLP-1s have a modest effect on lowering TGs with the risk of pancreatitis. So it makes it a controversial choice in this setting. Wondering how you see olezarsen? Is it going to be positioned complementary and dial back to GLP-1 or maybe as a safer alternative?
The GLPs are, of course, are being -- are approved for diabetes and for obesity. Our drug is for severe hypertriglyceridemia, but I think your point is that there's a lot of overlap, right? There's a lot of time for SHTG patients have severely elevated triglycerides and can be obese or diabetic.
So they will be used complementary, but they won't be used in place of each other. Like you said, GLP-1s have a modest reduction in triglycerides. Nothing like the 72% or so mean reductions that we're seeing for olezarsen, in our study, and they come with an added risk of pancreatitis.
So it's the exact -- it's kind of contraindicated in that sense to be using patients that are at high risk for acute pancreatitis. I could tell you that, although it wasn't the most common med in our study, everybody in our study, we're on standard of care fibrates, fish oils and statins were the most common. Patients that are on GLP-1 in our study, and they benefited from olezarsen, so absolutely complementary.
Got you. Very helpful. Okay. And then RNA medicines are new to cardiometabolic community, what do you see the biggest barriers to physician adoption? And how are you addressing those ahead of the launch?
Yes, we actually have seen a lot of enthusiasm for RNA targeted medicines. So of course, we're not a vaccine. We're targeting RNA. We're either modifying the function of the RNA or in the case of olezarsen, we are causing -- promoting the degradation of the RNA thereby for APOCIII, thereby blocking the production of the protein APOCIII from the liver.
The enthusiasm by the medical community has been overwhelmingly positive. They love the fact that we're doing cutting-edge science. They love to be working with cutting-edge medicines like this. Today, we have 7 FDA-approved medicines from Ionis, and there are other companies working on RNA targeted medicines too.
Of course, with success. And we're expecting several additional, many additional medicines that will be approved, not just for severe rare indications but for broad indications that are coming like olezarsen for severe hypertriglyceridemia, cardiovascular disease and so on. We have safely treated did many tens of thousands of patients chronically on the market today as well -- and then you could double that for clinical trials very safely with our medicines.
So we're actually very pleased with the positive receptivity of the HCP community for this new class of medicines.
And the price of olezarsen at $10,000 to $20,000. Looks quite modest on a per patient basis. But once the volumes scale, the budget impact could be huge for payers. So how do you avoid payer pushback on pricing and preserve net price durability as a market?
Yes. So just level set for everybody. Today, olezarsen, brand name Tryngolza was approved and launched for the rare disease familial chylomicronemia syndrome, which is severely elevated triglycerides due to a genetic cause. SHTG is no known genetic cause of it, the disease. So it's a common disease. Today, Tryngolza is launched with a rare disease price, it's not surprising.
When we get into the SHTG and we launch in SHTG, we will bring that price down to match a highly prevalent disease like SHTG. We have to and we will thread the needle such that we ensure patient access, that patients who need this drug can get this drug both from a cost standpoint, from a payer standpoint, coverage and so on.
But also to make sure that we bring the value to our shareholders, the value to Ionis that is appropriate, and we should receive. The $10,000 to $20,000 dollar range that you highlighted was preliminary. When we first began to think about what the pricing step down would be from a rare disease to a common disease. We still -- we have a lot of work to do. That was prior to having data.
Certainly, the acute pancreatitis state in the magnitude of triglyceride lowering that were achieved in our Phase III study, we'll provide more leverage for pricing but we have a lot of work to do between now and the early fourth quarter of next year when we launched this drug on making sure we get the right price to ensure patient access and to drive value for our shareholders.
Great. And when would you expect ex U.S. momentum for olezarsen and SHTG? Is that something that could be a reality in 2027? Or is it something that is a little bit further out?
Well, the first step is to get olezarsen launch in Europe for FCS and we're expecting the approval in Europe very soon in the second half of this year. We have a partner, a commercial partner in Sobi to launch this drug. They're excited about the opportunity for FCS. They're really excited about the data we shared last week in SHTG. We expect to start seeing revenue for FCS next year, but it will take some time to get onto the market for SHTG. So it'll probably be sometime after that.
Okay. Great. And then CORE and CORE2 data will be presented later this year. We're targeting a medical meeting. What analysis should we expect to see? Would it be responder breakouts, absolute AP event counts, subgroup safety? And could we assume AHA might be a viable venue?
AHA would be thrilled to have to be able to present the full data set at AHA with a simultaneous publication. We don't know that yet. We're still working through the submission and the acceptance for a late breaker, but that's certainly our goal. The data -- we're going to present as much data as we can and do realize that we still are going through the data. It's a lot of data.
What we reported last week was top line data. But we will report on the details of the acute pancreatitis. For example, how does the 50-milligram dose compared to the 80-milligram dose, how did the first pivotal study CORE compared to CORE2 recurrent versus first-time AP events in this study. We're going to try to go through all of that.
But then in addition to that, AP was a key secondary outcome. We will look through at all the other secondary outcomes like effects on VLDL cholesterol, remnant cholesterol ApoB 100, how many patients were we able to drive below 500? So get them out of -- the definition of SHTG. What percentage of patients were we able to drive below 150, normal triglyceride levels. It's really exciting. I could tell you that we achieved both of those, and you'll see the numbers on percentages when we share the data.
And of course, on more details on safety and tolerability, which was very favorable. So we'll do everything we can and get all that data out there in the medical presentation, but it will certainly be contained in a publication simultaneously.
Very exciting. We're looking forward to that. Switching to DAWNZERA for a bit. So we're a couple of weeks into the launch now. And could you just talk about what you're seeing in terms of early signals? Would you expect this to be a switch market, naive market? And are you seeing any indication that's tracking as such?
Too early to say on what types of patients switch patients, newly diagnosed patients that are coming out of DAWNZERA, I mean it's just been 3 weeks. But I can tell you that operationally, our team has done a fantastic job. We had, first of all, we had our first scripts coming into Ionis hours after the announcement of the launch from HCA. That's pretty cool.
We then had drug in channel within a week and drug in patients' hands within 3 weeks. So we actually have patients now self-injecting using the auto-injector DAWNZERA for as a prophylactic for HAE. And we think that, that bodes really well for the success of this launch.
This is a switch market. In the United States, more than 70% of patients with HAE are on a prophylactic treatment already. However, patients are not satisfied. The current treatments either are not providing the efficacy, safety -- efficacy, tolerability or convenience that they desperately need. And we believe DAWNZERA checks all 3 of those boxes, and we have switch data.
We have a clinical trial that we conducted a prospective switch study, which we invited patients that were on standard of care today for prophylactic treatment of HAE to come on to DAWNZERA and to show that we can safely switch them with no gaps in protection. We were 100% effective at doing that. So there were no breakdown in coverage. There was no breakdown on coverage.
And we were able to further reduce their attacks, more than 60% further reduction in attacks compared to their baseline values on their previous treatments. And in an independent survey on quality of life and how patients are doing, more than 80% of patients said that they prefer DAWNZERA over their previous treatment. So it's a switch market, and it will take some time to get those switches happening, right? It's not the -- unlike Tryngolza for FCS, which is the first ever FDA-approved medicine. Here, we -- it's going to take a little bit of time to launch the -- or to switch these patients over, but we're confident we're going to be successful.
And while it's a switch market, obviously, the data showing that people prefer DAWNZERA, would you expect to generate real-world data after launch that shows patients prefer this and we should move this into the first line?
Yes. Well, we believe that DAWNZERA will be used in first-line treatment because of the advantages that I highlighted already on efficacy, convenience and tolerability. The convenience of DAWNZERA, can be administered either every 4 weeks or every 8 weeks using a simple auto injectors, painless auto-injector that takes 10 to 15 seconds to administer.
So there's no reason why newly diagnosed patients could not be on DAWNZERA and we expect to have that. But as I said before, that's the minority of the patients in the United States. Most are on a treatment. But newly diagnosed patients, and by the way, diagnosis happens typically within the first 10 years of life.
So these are young individuals that get diagnosed with this. Our drug is indicated for 12 years and older but newly diagnosed patients, we don't see any reason why they couldn't go on to DAWNZERA. But majority will be switches, and we think we're going to do really well in switching patients over.
And it's expected DAWNZERA could be $0.5 billion opportunity at peak. Can you kind of give us the sense of what you're thinking about the ramp to peak? Is that a slow steady cadence? Or are there inflection points to get there?
It will be steady, but it will be slower than a drug that is first to market, right? Because of the time it's going to take to switch patients, the time it's going to take for patients to set up appointments with their allergists or their immunologist and say, "Okay, I want to switch." Or the HDP says, "I want to switch you. Okay, this is how you do it. Let's get it going and that kind of thing."
It just takes a little bit longer. So the $500 million plus is the revenue expectations that we have stated, but that's for the U.S., of course, outside the U.S., we have a partner, Otsuka, who will also add to that. But it will take a little bit of time to ramp it up, but we're confident we're going to get there.
Great. And maybe finally, if you could just give us the next 12 to 18 months ahead for Ionis and what you think could be some valuable inflection points for the company that investors should watch for.
There's a lot going on, a lot of exciting upcoming events. Of course, we're looking forward to HTG. We have 6 Phase III readouts between this -- the remainder of this year and next year with both wholly owned programs and our partnered program, including our drug for Alexander's disease, severe rare leukodystrophy. That's wholly owned by Ionis, that's second half of this year.
Next year, we have pelacarsen with our partner, Novartis, for LP(a)-driven cardiovascular disease. Another outcome trial -- or cardiovascular outcome trial in the second half of next year eplontersen, brand name is WAINUA which is approved for TTR polyneuropathy. We expect Phase III data for TTR cardiomyopathy, a block -- another blockbuster opportunity like olezarsen in the second half of next year.
And then additional Phase III readouts from our partnered pipeline next year as well. We're going to share quite a bit of this data in early October at our R&D Day, which we call now Innovation Day of our pipeline, our commercial strategy, our finances -- financial plans and the technology advancements that we're making. So I recommend everybody to join us for that.
Great. A super exciting year ahead. Really appreciate your time, Brett, and thank you all for joining us today in the room. Thank you.
Thanks, Mitch.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — H.C. Wainwright 27th Annual Global Investment Conference
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: Ionis treibt Kommerzialisierung und klinische Entwicklung parallel voran: DAWNZERA (Hereditärer Angioödem) ist gestartet; Olezarsen (Tryngolza für FCS) lieferte in Phase‑III bei schwerer Hypertriglyceridämie (SHTG) herausragende Top‑Line‑Ergebnisse mit potenzialem großer Marktchance.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Launch‑Execution: DAWNZERA wurde zügig in Kanal und Patienten gebracht; erste Rezepte lagen innerhalb von Stunden vor, Patienten injizieren bereits.
- Regulatorik & Entwicklung: Olezarsen zeigte starke Wirksamkeit; supplemental NDA für SHTG wird vorbereitet; EU‑Launch für FCS über Partner (Sobi) erwartet.
- Kommerz & Preis: Preisstrategie: seltener‑Krankheits‑Preis für FCS, später Preisreduktion bei breiter SHTG‑Zulassung; Verhandlungen mit Kostenträgern geplant.
🔍 Neue Informationen
- Wesentliche Resultate: Olezarsen: ~72% mittlere Triglycerid‑Reduktion auf Standard‑Therapie; ~85% Reduktion von akuten Pankreatitis‑Ereignissen versus Placebo; >90% Roll‑over in Open‑Label‑Extension (CORE/CORE2).
- Timing: Detaillierte Datensätze, Subgruppen und Sicherheit sollen bei Konferenz/Publikation folgen; EU‑FCS‑Zulassung H2 erwartet.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Zahlungsbereitschaft: Kritische Nachfrage zu Payer‑Modellen, Gesundheitsökonomie und wie Outcome‑Daten breite Erstattungszugänge sichern sollen.
- Marktsegmentierung: Diskussion über initiale Zielsegmente (post‑AP, >880 mg/dL, >1000 mg/dL) und taktische Roll‑out‑Priorität.
- Positionierung & Akzeptanz: Rolle versus GLP‑1s, HCP‑Adoption von RNA‑Medikamenten und Pläne für ärztliche Aufklärung wurden thematisiert.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit für Anleger: Kurzfristig positives Kommerz‑Momentum mit DAWNZERA; mittel‑ bis langfristig hoher Mehrwert wenn Olezarsen in SHTG zugelassen und Kostenträgerakzeptanz gelingt. Haupt‑Risiken: Preis‑/Erstattungsdruck, gradueller Launch‑Ramp und erfolgreiche Translation der Endpunkt‑Daten in Reimbursement.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Wells Fargo 20th Annual Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Okay. Thank you, everyone, for being here. I think we can get started. My name is Yanan Zhu. I'm one of the biotech analysts here at Wells Fargo. It is our great privilege to have the management team of Ionis Pharmaceuticals here for a fireside chat session. And with me on stage is the CEO, Brett Monia.
Good morning, Yanan. Thank you.
Thank you for being here.
Yes, it's a pleasure.
Great. It's exciting time for Ionis. You have 2 FDA approvals of wholly-owned products in the last 12 months. Commercial launches are underway. One more indication just reported very positive data and then 2 important partner programs read out in large -- for large market readouts next year. And we're privileged to be the first public appearance opportunity after the very exciting CORE and CORE2 data earlier this week. Could you share your perspective where Ionis stands today and where the story go from here?
Sure. Happy to, Yanan. I'll be brief. But we've made -- we've had tremendous success over the last 2 or 3 years or so. And most recently, over the last year or so, really extraordinary progress across all aspects of the business. That includes, of course, technology advancing, but the pipeline has had so many successes, Phase III readouts over the last year or 2, drug approvals, as you mentioned 2 drugs have been approved over the last 9 months that we independently own ourselves. There's actually 3 over the last 1.5 years, if you include WAINUA for TTR amyloidosis with our partner AstraZeneca, and the launches. And our first independent launch in our history, which is for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, Tryngolza, which is the brand name for olezarsen, which we'll talk a lot about in a moment. That launch, our first independent launch in our history is off to a great, great start already.
And then just last month, we had the approval of DAWNZERA for hereditary angioedema, another -- our second independent commercial launch, which is now underway. And as you highlighted, just this week, we announced highly positive outcome results for olezarsen, the same drug as Tryngolza, but for -- now for a broader indication called severe hypertriglyceridemia, very positive Phase III data in this very large patient population, where we demonstrated 72% mean reductions in triglycerides on top of standard of care and an 85% reduction in acute pancreatitis. This is the outcome, the clinical event that is most serious for patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia, and we reduced it by 85%, highly statistically significant.
So we've had a great deal of success lately, and we're going to build on that success in the future with many more catalysts that are coming up.
Got it. Got it. So let's dive into the olezarsen sHTG readout, as you said. So the study CORE and CORE2 was reported earlier this week. And the study has a primary endpoint of triglyceride reduction and then a secondary end point -- one of the secondary endpoint of acute pancreatitis event. On the primary end point, could you put that in perspective how does the triglyceride reduction compare with, for example, other APOCIII targeted competition?
So as I just touched on, the triglyceride-lowering effects in these patients with highly, highly, severely elevated triglycerides is unprecedented. These patients suffer from a great -- all kinds of comorbidities, risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease risk, but the biggest clinical risk they face is a risk of a potentially fatal acute pancreatitis event. That's untreatable with any other treatments. Our trial was on top of standard of care, so drugs like fibrates or omega-3 fatty acids and so on. These patients still had severely elevated triglycerides. Those drugs are inadequate. We were able to lower their triglycerides to -- by 72% -- mean levels of 72% and get them out of harm's way for acute pancreatitis, the vast majority of patients.
I could also tell you that many patients we were able to drive down below the definition of severe hypertriglyceridemia. That's below 500 milligrams per deciliter, and we were also able to achieve a good percentage of patients that we normalized, so having triglycerides below 150, which is the normal -- 150 and below, which is the normal range of triglyceride. So this is unprecedented, that plus the acute pancreatitis outcome that we achieved.
So I don't know about competition, but we're on schedule to be first to market with a drug that is demonstrating this unprecedented efficacy in sHTG as we were first to market for familial chylomicronemia syndrome for the same drug, which we launched in January. So we've set a bar that is extremely high for anyone who is coming behind us.
Got it. Got it. So on the acute pancreatitis endpoint, the study was not powered for it, which means the expectation was at a certain level, but olezarsen achieved highly statistically significant result. So were you surprised by the outcome? And how does that -- this outcome impact your thinking of the commercial opportunity, the launch curve and all that?
Trials like this are very difficult to power when there's no precedent for a disease-modifying treatment to impact the clinical outcome like acute pancreatitis. So powering was difficult to do that. So -- let me just say that out of the gate. The study was powered for triglycerides. In AP, we just didn't know how much -- how big a study we would need to have done, how long a study we would need to have done to get a significant AP outcome. We tried, but it was difficult. However, when we got the Phase III data in FCS, which is the most severe form of sHTG, a genetic form of sHTG, we did get statistically significant reductions in acute pancreatitis. And that lent more confidence that if we collect a good number of AP events in the sHTG CORE and CORE2 Phase III studies, and if our triglyceride levels were particularly quite high -- our mean triglycerides were quite high that we would have a good shot of showing strong trends in reducing AP or maybe even stat-sig in the trial. And as the study evolved, we start seeing accumulated AP events in a blinded manner, of course, and we started saying, "Wow, maybe we are going to get stat-sig." And then when we saw our mean triglycerides, or our median triglycerides were so high in this study, our confidence grew. We didn't know -- I don't know if we expect 85% reduction, which was incredible, but our confidence grew over time that we had something special that was coming here.
As far as its importance, the sentiment in the lipid specialist community, the cardiology community, the endocrinology community has been so positive -- and the patient community has been so positive with Tryngolza for FCS. The treaters that treat FCS patients are the same folks that treat sHTG patients. And that sentiment has been so strong that has supported the really, really successful launch we've had so far already with FCS. And that sentiment has only gotten stronger with this AP data that we got in sHTG, but it's unprecedented.
I mean lipid specialists know that the patients that have highly elevated triglycerides are at high-risk for AP, but this data just further strengthens that case that you're going to get patients out of harm's way for AP, which can be fatal if you put them on a drug like olezarsen. So it's going to be very important in the HCP community. It's going to be very important for payers, right, who are going to see real benefit in clinical outcome, not just a biomarker on triglycerides that is going to really -- that really demonstrates the value that a drug like olezarsen is going to bring to the health care industry and the health care system.
Got it. Got it. In terms of next steps for regulatory, I guess investors are very interested in the timing of filing and whether acute pancreatitis will be in the label or even as an indication statement. Could you talk about that?
So next step is to submit the supplemental NDA, supplemental to the FCS indication by the end of the year, to also, just to touch on next steps, present the full data set at a medical congress in the second half of this year and hopefully to publish jointly simultaneously with that. We always want to be cautious. We always want to be cautious in speaking for the FDA on what's going to go into a label or not, where we feel fairly confident that we will have AP in the label somewhere. I don't want to speak to the indication statement. That's a bridge too far. But we do believe that we have a pretty good shot of getting AP in the label. But I want to remind you, Yanan, we already have AP in the label That's the FCS indication statement -- or it's not in the indication statement, but it's in the label for FCS. So this is an extension of that label. And we will publish the data and be able to market that publication because the data were so overwhelmingly positive.
So we'll do our best to get in the label, but we think we have it covered.
Got it. Got it. And the upcoming presentation, could it be as close as AHA meeting in November?
We would be honored. I mean it's such a prestigious congress. So we would be honored to have the opportunity to present our data at AHA, but that's not nailed down yet. We're working through that now. But we will share the data at a medical congress in the second half of this year one way or the other.
Got it. Can you give us some color on the commercial opportunity? What's your go-to-market strategy? What are the initial patient population you target? And how big is that population?
So severe hypertriglyceridemia is defined as triglycerides above 500. As I mentioned, in our Phase III trial, we had many patients that were well above 1,000, almost pushing 2,000 or so in triglyceride, normal is 150. This is a condition that affects more than 3 million people in the United States alone. So there's an enormous unmet medical need here for more effective treatments than what's currently available and inadequate. Our focus is initially to get to those patients first that are in the greatest need. That's the high-risk patient population that has had -- already had an acute pancreatitis attack. Once you've had one AP attack, the chances of having another attack goes up several fold, so recurrent AP can happen. You can have destruction -- complete destruction of your pancreas and other complications in other organs.
Second, patients that are above 80 in triglycerides who are particularly prone for acute pancreatitis because of the nature of how the triglycerides are packaged in chylomicrons. Almost 100% of triglycerides are packaged in chylomicrons, which cause pancreatitis when they're above 80. Or even in patients that have severe hypertriglyceridemia, but have other comorbidities, diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease and those sorts of things, that comes to about 1 million people. So that's our beachhead, if you will, is to focus on those high-risk patients that -- there's about 1 million people need in U.S. that have -- that are considered high risk.
Our back office team is already built. We're building it -- we're continuing to build it, but it's largely in place for this, and we're now hiring our field teams for this. And we think that with 200 or so, maybe a little bit more, field reps, we can get out to and be able to work with about 20,000 HCPs that see these patients and manage these high-risk patients. These are lipid specialists or cardiologists and endocrinologists. Of course, we will -- we have a lot more work to do now that we have the data, research. And if we need to scale that in one way or another to ensure for success, maximal success on the market, we have the capital to do so, and we will do so.
Great. Great. Regarding the landscape for sHTG, obviously, you are first to market. But can you talk about the positioning against Arrowhead's Plozasiran, 89bio's FGF21 Analogue? And perhaps also touch on GLP-1. I think many people are wondering what could that do to the market.
I kind of said it before, Yanan, we've set a -- our data is unprecedented. We've set a very high bar for others to meet with respect to triglyceride lowering, reduction statistically significant, 85% reductions in acute pancreatitis, favorable safety and tolerability with the convenience of a patient being able to self-administer once per month using a simple low-volume painless auto injector. So I think we've really set the bar quite high. And again, we have first-mover advantage, which is a very important advantage to maximize success on the market.
With respect to GLPs, they have modest triglyceride lowering effects. So nothing, nothing compared to what we're seeing with this APOCIII mechanism of action, the triglycerides we're getting. And also there's a risk for GLPs to actually cause pancreatitis. So it's -- I wouldn't say it's contraindicated, but certainly, lipid specialists are going to be take a pause in using a GLP-1 if it can increase the risk of acute pancreatitis, the very clinical outcome that they're trying to prevent in our study. So we're not focused on competition right now, we're focused on getting olezarsen approved to the market and to maximize success and take advantage of our first mover advantage.
Got it. Got it. Lastly, I wanted to ask you about safety because this is, again, 1 million people target population, safety is paramount. What's your confidence with the safety of olezarsen?
High, very high. We -- this is the same drug as Tryngolza, which was approved by the FDA for FCS. And we have a favorable safety and tolerability profile that's in line -- generally in line with what we've seen in the FCS indication, which is approved in the ESSENCE safety study, which is now published in the New England Journal of Medicine, we presented at ESC this past weekend, and all of our other studies with all olezarsen. So we're feeling good about it.
Great, great. Obviously, olezarsen or Tryngolza is in marketing for FCS. And you delivered a very strong second quarter sales for that very, very small population. Can you help us think through how you manage the transition from that market to the sHTG market? There's -- your thoughts about the pricing range for the sHTG, and could we see, for example, a down quarter due to the pricing change?
Yes. So the FCS launch has exceeded all expectations by whoever made expectations. It's off to a great start. And that's largely been driven because of the really attractive profile, the efficacy and safety profile for Tryngolza in FCS. The really amazing work our team has done, our commercial team has done in identifying newly diagnosing FCS patients, whether genetically or clinically, rapidly converting our patients that are on clinical trials, our open-label extension and our EAP over to commercial drug. We're looking at -- we've increased our guidance substantially to $70 million to $80 million for this year for this rare disease in the first year of launch. So it's going really well. And I mentioned the sentiment before how strong this sentiment it is, how impressed the HCP community is with not just Tryngolza, but Ionis' execution on this launch. So it's going to bode really well for the sHTG launch.
As we then move towards the sHTG launch, we have a lot of work to do, not just with getting the NDA -- supplemental NDA filed and so on and getting our commercial organization built out and in place for the launch, we also have a lot of pricing research that we need to do. We've done -- we've made some estimates. We've given some guidance on pricing prior to this week. But now that we have the data, it's time to get to work, right? Now it's time to get to real work with payers and talk about the value that olezarsen is bringing to the sHTG patients, triglyceride reductions, acute pancreatitis clinical outcomes and so on.
And we have time to do that because we'll announce price once we get approval -- expected approval next year. But there will be an adjustment to the price. We're going from a rare disease to a highly prevalent disease. So there will be an adjustment to the price so that it will be acceptable to payers. And our job is to thread that needle to maximize value for Ionis and our investors while also making this drug also attractive to the payer community. So we're working on all that now. And now that we have the data, we can roll up our sleeves and get to work.
Got it. Yes, looking forward to anything that comes out of that very interesting and important effort. So I wanted to switch gears and talk about Tryngolza DAWNZERA for HAE. Congrats on the approval. It's only the second week of the commercial launch, but any color on what's happening on the ground and what early feedback you're getting from your sales force?
So DAWNZERA is a -- we think is really going to be a transformational treatment for the HAE community for many patients. Patients are looking for better prophylactic treatments to manage their HAE. And that's clearly demonstrated by the fact that patients are already switching around during a year, 20% of the time, looking for better treatment options, they're willing to try anything that could better improve efficacy, tolerability or convenience. We're also seeing it in poles that have been conducted that patients -- 90% of patients are saying, yes, I'll try something new if there's something comes forward.
We think that DAWNZERA has a potential to be the treatment of choice for many, many patients with HAE because it has outstanding efficacy, convenience of once per month or once every 2-month dosing, which is the longest -- the least frequent dosing opportunity that patients have for any treatment -- prophylactic treatment for HAE, and really, really strong safety and tolerability.
So we are now a week into the launch, like you said, maybe 2 weeks. Our team has executed the launch very well so far. We actually had a drug in channel within a week and first prescriptions were actually came in within a few days of the announcement, and we now have a drug with patients, and they're self-administering.
So it's off to -- it's early days, but it's off to -- execution-wise, it's off to a very good start. Before the approval, we were hearing from the patient community, HAE community that this is a treatment that many patients are really going to -- we're really looking forward to. And the sentiment is very strong from the HAE Association, who we've been working very closely with as well as the patient -- other parts of the patient community. So we're looking forward to continuing to make -- provide updates on the DAWNZERA launch, but we're just in the early days.
Got it. Got it. I think people might be curious about your view on the early dynamics in the first and second quarters of launch. You described it as a switch market, but I was wondering how do you see the launch trajectory unfold over time?
So about 70% -- a little bit more than 70% of patients are estimated to be on prophylactic treatment in the United States alone. We're launching in the U.S. right now. And so it's a switch market, to your point. We did conduct a clinical trial that you're aware of that actually was a switch study, so patients that were on existing prophylactic treatments in the U.S. or anywhere were invited to come on to our clinical trial and switch over to DAWNZERA. We were really thrilled to see how quickly patients signed up for that showing that they're looking for better treatment options and they're willing to take chances on other options. And what we showed was that we were able to further improve their efficacy by more than 60% compared to baseline for their other prophylactic treatments and more than 80% of patients preferred DAWNZERA. So we think that this is -- like that's just more evidence than what I said earlier that we think that is going to be a preferred treatment for many patients with HAE.
With that said, it's a switch market. So it's going to take more time than like a Tryngolza, which is the first ever FDA-approved medicine for FCS, the only FDA-approved medicine for FCS. So HAE is going to take time to switch patients. And a lot of that is logistics, right? It's just blocking and tackling. It's like you got to make an appointment with your immunologists or your allergists. You got to talk about it, and you got to get them on to the drug and so on. So it will take a little bit more time. I don't think we're going to see much -- we don't expect too much on the revenue side for the first -- for the remaining quarters of this year. But I think you're going to really see it take off next year on the revenue side of things.
Got it. Got it. And then looking further into the future, you have predicted DAWNZERA will be a $500 million-plus drug. So what is baked into that assumption in terms of market share and market position at that peak level?
Yes. We haven't shared any details on what we expect for the market uptake with respect to market share, those sorts of things beyond that, at peak, we expect this to be a $500 million annual -- $500 million plus annual revenue generator for Ionis. And that's U.S., those are U.S. dollars beyond that. So -- and that the vast majority of patients, we switch patients. Other than that, we haven't provided any additional guidance. So I'll hold off on that one.
Got it. Great. So switching gears again into the R&D pipeline. And it is amazing that we have been doing fireside chat for a few years. It's amazing that now commercial takes the vast majority of our time. And now the R&D question is having less of a role. That's really amazing. But you do have 2 very, very important pipeline updates from partner programs next year. One is in Lp(a), the other ATTR cardiomyopathy, both are very big markets. So maybe let's talk about ATTR cardiomyopathy first. Are you still on track to report the Phase III study in the second half of '26? Is the blinded event rate, how does that tracking to your expectation?
Yes. We are on track to read the CARDIO-TTRansform cardiovascular outcome trial for Eplontersen for TTR cardiomyopathy in the second half of next year. The blinded events and the makeup of those events, whether they be mortality or hospitalizations, the types of hospitalizations, are all tracking exactly where they should be. So yes, we're on track for second half next year.
Got it. Got it. How do you see this market evolve with now 3 drugs approved, tafamidis, Attruby, Amvuttra? And how do you see the market evolve in the next 1 to 2 years before your product can get on the market? And how would you and AstraZeneca leverage the setup for the WAINUA launch?
So this is a growth market, right? We're seeing this market expand continuously as more awareness is created, which has really taken off over the last few years, but also has new treatments emerge. We remain solid on believing that the silencer class will do extremely well over the stabilizer class for TTR amyloidosis, neuropathy, cardiomyopathy. And we believe that the Eplontersen profile will be very attractive and do very well in this -- for this indication once we get there.
We have -- we are conducting the largest by far study ever conducted in TTR cardiomyopathy. It's going to allow us to have the richest data set, not just for the primary endpoint, but for combination data with tafamidis, for example, which we think is very important data to have in hand when you get to this market because there are a lot of patients. Tafamidis is still the standard of care in the United States for TTR cardiomyopathy. And having that data to show potentially added benefit of a silencer plus a stabilizer is going to be extremely important and valuable.
And once tafamidis goes generic not too far down the road, the importance of combination therapy will just increase even further. We believe that a drug like Eplontersen, or silencer like Eplontersen will be used out of the gate in 3 main buckets. It will be used in patients that progress on a stabilizer, right? Everybody eventually progresses on a stabilizer with cardiomyopathy. Patients that are newly diagnosed could go right on to Eplontersen as well as combination usage, which I already touched on.
Got it. Yes. Thank you for giving us a look into the future and how the market will evolve. I mean, to your point, generic tafamidis could be a big tailwind for silencer combination use. I thought Pfizer recently announced they're discontinuing support for 1 of the 2 forms of tafamidis on the market, the Vyndaqel version by end of this year. Any read through to potential generic entry and...
Not really. Not really, Yanan. And I don't think we've given that too much thought at this point. We're laser-focused on getting the cardiomyopathy CARDIO-TTRansform study done on time and to get that data read out as fast as possible next year and then get that NDA -- a supplemental NDA submitted as fast as possible. So I really can't comment on what Pfizer is doing.
Right. So let's talk about the Lp(a) HORIZON study. Are you still on track for data in the first half of '26? The study passed a secondary interim analysis recently. What is the implication of that?
Yes. So I mean it's really amazing, right? We're going to have 2 cardiovascular outcome trials next year, pelacarsen with our partner, Novartis, for LP(a)-driven cardiovascular disease and Eplontersen for TTR cardiomyopathy in the second half of the year with AstraZeneca. Yes. Everything is on track. Novartis is on track to read that study out in the first half of next year. They published earlier this year the baseline demographics paper for the pelacarsen study that included all the powering assumptions and so on for the study and the interim analyses that were planned and now completed, as you say.
It's a very well-executed study. I mean, the mean -- the median Lp(a) levels are very high, over 100 in this study. These are sick people. Again, Lp(a) is an independent cardiovascular risk factor that causes cardiovascular disease. These patients have their LDLs controlled, their hypertension controlled. This is a pure Lp(a) play in CVD. We expect 80% plus reductions in Lp(a) in the study based on our Phase II data. And yes, 2 interim analyses, 1 last year and then 1 this year were conducted successfully. And those interim analyses were basically -- they were reviewed by an unblinded statistician group and a DSMB that reviewed the data and recommended to management whether or not to continue the study as planned, to modify the study based on safety or efficacy or to -- or futility to stop the study. And in both cases, the recommendation was to continue the study as planned, which, of course, is very -- gives further confidence for the outcome of the study.
Based on the publication that Novartis put out on the baseline demographics, we're expecting a 90% powering for a relative risk reduction of about 20% for the overall population. If the study -- the entry requirements for Lp(a) are 70 milligrams per deciliter and above, which is highly associated with cardiovascular disease, but they also have a subgroup of 90-milligram per desilter and above. As I mentioned, the medians is above 100 million in the actual enrollment. For that population, the 90 and above who are sicker because they have higher Lp(a), the relative risk reduction with 90% powering assumption is 25%. So it's a very well-conducted study, and it's a landmark study, which we're very accustomed to doing at Ionis.
Right. Right. Yes, it seems so I think we're just at time. And that's a perfect note, I think to end the fireside chat. With that, I want to thank you, Brett, for again, a very, very insightful session.
Thanks, Yanan. It's great to be here.
Thanks, everyone.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Wells Fargo 20th Annual Healthcare Conference 2025
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernbotschaft: Ionis stellte im Fireside Chat die herausragenden CORE/CORE2‑Ergebnisse für olezarsen in severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG) vor: 72% mittlere Triglycerid‑Reduktion und 85% Reduktion akuter Pankreatitis (AP). Management betont First‑to‑market‑Vorteil, sNDA‑Einreichung bis Jahresende und H2‑Präsentation.
🔝 Strategische Highlights
- Regulatorik: Supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) für sHTG geplant bis Ende Jahr; Management erwartet AP zumindest im Label, Indikationsanspruch wird zurückhaltend kommuniziert.
- Kommerziell: FCS‑Launch (familiale Chylomikronämie‑Syndrom) läuft deutlich besser als erwartet; Ziel‑Beachhead für sHTG ≈1 Mio Hochrisiko‑Patienten in den USA; Außendienst ≈200 Reps aufgebaut.
- Pipeline: Zwei große Partner‑CV‑Readouts bestätigt: pelacarsen (Lipoprotein(a), Lp(a)) H1/26 mit positivem Interim; eplontersen (ATTR‑Kardiomyopathie) H2/26; beides „on track“.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Wesentliches: CORE/CORE2 liefert erstmals robuste klinische AP‑Ereignisreduktion in sHTG; Konsequenz: konkrete Zeitachse für sNDA, geplante Kongresspräsentation in H2 und Beginn systematischer Preis‑/Payer‑Gespräche nach Zulassung.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Kommerz: Nachfrage zu Go‑to‑Market, Preisgestaltung und möglichen Quartalseffekten bei Übergang von Rare‑ zu Prävalenzmarkt; Management kündigt Preisanpassung nach Zulassung an und betont Verhandlungen mit Kostenträgern.
- Label & Timing: Nachfrage, ob AP als Indikation reinkommt; CEO bleibt vorsichtig, sieht aber gute Chancen für AP im Label und bestätigt sNDA‑Plan.
- Wettbewerb & Sicherheit: Fragen zu Konkurrenz (Arrowhead, 89bio, GLP‑1) und Sicherheitsprofil; Management hebt überlegene TG‑Reduktion, günstiges Verträglichkeitsprofil und First‑mover‑Vorteil hervor.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Das Event konkretisiert Ionis’ Übergang von R&D zu kommerzieller Execution: starke Phase‑III‑Daten für olezarsen verschieben die Debatte auf Preis/Access und Label‑Verhandlungen. Für Aktionäre bedeutet das beschleunigte Umsatz‑ und Risiko‑Retransfer‑Potenzial, aber auch Abhängigkeit von Zulassung, Preisfindung und Payer‑Akzeptanz.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Special Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to Ionis Conference Call to discuss Olezarsen CORE and CORE2 top line data. As a reminder, this call is being recorded.
At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Wade Walke, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, to lead off the call. Please begin.
Thank you, Ludy, and thank you to everyone who has joined us today as we discuss the groundbreaking top line results from the landmark CORE and CORE2 studies of olezarsen in people with sHTG. Please be sure to visit the Investors section of the Ionis website to see the press release Ionis issued earlier this morning, along with the slides accompanying today's webcast.
Full data from the Phase III Essence Study of olezarsen in people with moderate HTG were also presented over the weekend at the 2025 ESC Congress. The presentation from the ESC Congress is also available on our website.
With me on the call today are Brett Monia, Chief Executive Officer, who will provide opening remarks. Sam Tsimikas, Senior Vice President, Global Cardiovascular Development, who will discuss the significant unmet need associated with sHTG and then review the top line CORE and CORE2 study results. Kyle Jenne, Chief Global Product Strategy Officer, will discuss our go-to-market approach to achieving launch success of olezarsen for sHTG, assuming approval. And after Brett's brief conclusion, we'll open up the call for your questions.
Before passing the call to Brett, I would like to remind you that our discussion today will contain forward-looking statements based on our current expectations and beliefs. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially. I encourage you to consult the risk factors contained in our SEC filings for additional detail.
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Brett.
Thanks, Wade, and thank you, everybody, for joining us this morning. We are thrilled to be here today to report highly positive top line results from the Phase III CORE and CORE2 studies of olezarsen in people with severe hypertriglyceridemia, sHTG. In these pivotal studies, olezarsen met its primary endpoint, demonstrating a highly statistically significant and clinically meaningful mean reductions in placebo-adjusted fasting triglycerides at 6 months.
Olezarsen also significantly and substantially reduced acute pancreatitis events, making it the first and only treatment to achieve this positive outcome in people with sHTG. And importantly, olezarsen also demonstrated favorable safety and tolerability across the 2 studies. We believe these unprecedented results position olezarsen to meet the substantial unmet needs of people with sHTG, a patient population in great need for more effective triglyceride-lowering treatments to reduce the risk of potentially fatal acute pancreatitis. These results come at a time of extraordinary progress at Ionis.
In January, we launched our first Ionis-owned commercial medicine, olezarsen, under the brand name TRYNGOLZA. As the first and only FDA-approved treatment for familial chylomicronemia syndrome or FCS, the TRYNGOLZA approval was a pivotal moment for patients. The launch is off to an excellent start, driven in large part by TRYNGOLZA'S strong profile that is meeting the needs of people with FCS. The TRYNGOLZA launch was also a pivotal moment for Ionis representing the beginning of a new era as a fully integrated commercial stage biotechnology company.
And just over a week ago, we announced the FDA approval of Ionis' second commercial medicine, DAWNZERA, the first and only RNA-targeted HAE prophylactic for patients 12 years and older in the U.S. Within days of approval, we began receiving prescriptions and shipping product to patients, and we are pleased with the excitement that DAWNZERA is already generating within the HAE community. With the positive CORE and CORE2 results now in hand, we have the opportunity to build on our success with FCS and commercialize Ionis' first medicine for a prevalent patient population. Following today's top line results, we look forward to presenting the full data from CORE and CORE2 at a medical congress later this year.
And by year's end, we plan to submit our supplemental NDA for olezarsen for the sHTG indication followed by additional regulatory filings outside the U.S. expected next year.
As you'll hear from Kyle, our commercial teams are actively preparing to launch olezarsen for the treatment of sHTG in the U.S. in the second half of next year. With a substantial first-mover advantage in sHTG together with today's top line results, we are confident that olezarsen can meet the needs of the large sHTG population and fully realizes -- and fully realize its blockbuster market potential.
Before I turn the call over to Sam, I'd like to take this opportunity to thank all those who contributed to the exciting top line results we're reporting today, including the patients, families and clinicians who participated in the olezarsen Phase III ESSENCE, CORE and CORE2 studies. I also want to acknowledge our team at Ionis, whose unwavering dedication to patients in the olezarsen program enabled the highly positive outcome that we're reporting today.
With that, I'll pass the call over to Sam to walk through our olezarsen sourcing clinical program and the positive top line results. Sam?
Thank you, Brett. And hello to everyone with us on the call. Before I begin, I would also like to recognize and thank everyone whose contributions made today's groundbreaking results possible including our colleagues at the TIMI Study Group who collaborated with us on the olezarsen Phase III program.
Here is a brief reminder of the study is making up our comprehensive olezarsen Phase III development program, encompassing both severe and moderate hypertriglyceridemia. First are the pivotal CORE and CORE2 studies in people with severe hypertriglyceridemia or sHTG with nearly 1,100 participants across the 2 studies, this is the largest pivotal program ever conducted in this patient population. We also conducted a Phase III ESSENCE study, which enrolled nearly 1,500 participants, primarily of moderate hypertriglyceridemia and elevated cardiovascular risk with the result of the study contributing to the safety database in our sHTG sNDA filing.
Over the weekend, the ESSENCE study results were presented at ESC and simultaneously published in the New England Journal of Medicine. In the ESSENCE study, olezarsen demonstrated statistically significant mean reductions in placebo-adjusted fasting triglycerides of 58% and 61% at 6 months with olezarsen 50 and 80 milligrams, respectively. Nearly 90% of olezarsen treated participants achieved normal triglyceride levels of less than 150 milligrams per deciliter.
Olezarsen also met all key secondary endpoints, including a significant reduction in the total number of atherogenic lipoproteins as measured by ApoB levels and a nearly 70% mean reduction in remnant cholesterol. Olezarsen demonstrated overall favorable safety and tolerability in the ESSENCE study. Adverse effects during the trial were balanced across the treatment groups as were SAEs and SAEs leading to treatment discontinuation. Injection site reactions, which were generally mild, were the most common adverse event that occurred more frequently with olezarsen compared to placebo.
And now I will turn our focus to sHTG and the positive results from the pivotal CORE studies. The CORE and CORE2 studies were designed to evaluate olezarsen in people with sHTG. sHTG is defined by fasting serum triglyceride levels greater than equal to 500 milligrams per deciliter, driven by genetics, diabetes, obesity, metabolic syndrome and lifestyle all of which can impair triglyceride clearance. When triglycerides are elevated above 500, chylomicrons begin to form, at high enough concentrations chylomicrons can become toxic to the pancreas and lead to acute pancreatitis, which is associated with increased mortality, hospitalization, intensive care admission and acute and chronic complications.
Current triglyceride lowering treatments, such as fibrates and omega-3 fatty acids offer only modest effectiveness and often fail to reduce triglyceride levels below the threshold for pancreatitis. Moreover, none have shown a proven benefit in lowering the risk of acute pancreatitis in FHCG or any other patient population. This treatment gap strongly suggests the need for more potent and effective drugs. It is particularly critical given the size of the sHTG population with over 3 million people in the U.S. alone. There are estimated to be more than 1 million people who are considered high risk, which includes those with triglycerides above 880 milligrams per deciliter or above 500 milligrams per deciliter plus a prior history of pancreatitis.
CORE and CORE2 were designed to address these unmet clinical needs. They are global, randomized, placebo-controlled studies conducted in 1,063 participants with sHTG. Participants were required to be on stable standard of care lipid-lowering therapy throughout the trial. Diet was stabilized during screening and maintained with the support of counseling throughout the treatment period. Participants were randomized one-to-one to receive olezarsen 50 milligrams or 80 milligrams than 2:1 to receive olezarsen or placebo. Participants were also stratified by triglyceride levels greater than or less than 880 milligrams per deciliter and a history of at least 1 episode of acute pancreatitis within 10 years prior to screening.
The treatment period was 12 months and the primary efficacy endpoint, the placebo-adjusted mean percent reduction in fasting triglycerides was assessed at 6 months. A key prespecified secondary endpoint was a percent change in adjudicated acute pancreatitis events with pooled olezarsen compared to pool placebo at 12 months. Pancreatitis events were adjudicated by an independent clinical research organization blinded to treatment assignment. Established adjudication criteria were based on the revised Atlanta classification of acute pancreatitis. Additional secondary endpoints included triglyceride reductions at 12 months as well as reductions in APOCIII and a variety of lipid parameters at 6 and 12 months.
The primary and secondary endpoints and statistical hierarchy of both CORE and CORE2 and the combined analyses were recently published in the American Heart Journal. Participants who completed the placebo-controlled portion of these studies were eligible to enroll in an open-label extension study, and we are pleased to report that more than 90% of eligible participants elected to enter the ongoing open-label extension, which reflects both the perceived benefit of olezarsen to patients and to physicians as well as a lack of effective therapeutic options for sHTG.
Here are the baseline characteristics from CORE and CORE2 as published in the American Heart Journal earlier this year, which highlight the severity of sHTG in the study population. Median baseline triglyceride levels were 836 milligrams per deciliter in CORE and 749 milligrams per deciliter in CORE2 and further reflecting the severity and risk in the study population, the mean baseline fasting triglyceride levels were 1,182 in CORE and 1,023 in CORE2. 47% of the participants in CORE and 37% of the participants in CORE2 had baseline fasting triglyceride levels greater than 880 milligrams per deciliter.
22% participants in CORE and 13% of participants in CORE2 at had at least one event of acute pancreatitis in the 10 years prior to enrollment. All participants were on stable background treatment with at least 1 lipid lowering therapy, including statins, fibrates, omega-3 fatty acid, ezetimibe and a small percentage were on PCSK9 inhibitors. Over 60% of participants were on 2 or more lipid-lowering treatments, underscoring the lack of effective therapies for severely elevated triglycerides. Median baseline LDL cholesterols were relatively low across the 2 studies which reflects aggressive standard of care.
A majority of participants have diabetes at baseline, which is common in sHTG. And now to the CORE and CORE2 top line results beginning with the primary efficacy endpoint of triglyceride reduction at 6 months. In CORE, the mean percent change from baseline in fasting triglycerides in the placebo group was a 0.5% reduction. In contrast, a mean 63% reduction was achieved with olezarsen 50 milligrams and 73% reduction with olezarsen 80 milligrams. The placebo-adjusted reductions in fasting triglycerides were 63% with olezarsen 50 milligrams and 72% with olezarsen 80 milligrams. These results were highly statistically significant with p-value less than 0.0001 for each dose.
In CORE2, the mean change from baseline in fasting triglycerides in the placebo group was a 14% reduction. In mean, 63% reduction was achieved with olezarsen 50-milligram and 88% reduction with olezarsen 80 milligram. The placebo-adjusted reductions were 49% with olezarsen 50-milligram and 55% with olezarsen 80 milligram. And again, these results were highly statistically significant with P less than 0.0001 for each dose.
We now turn our focus to the most clinically relevant secondary endpoint for this sHTG population, the reduction in acute pancreatitis events which were assessed in a comparison of pooled olezarsen to pool placebo across the 2 study. We are extremely pleased to report that olezarsen achieved a highly statistically significant 85% reduction in adjudicated acute pancreatitis events with a p-value of 0.0002. CORE and CORE2 represent the first pivotal program to ever achieve this in an sHTG population. Furthermore, olezarsen's very large treatment effect producing the risk of pancreatitis by 85% in only 1 year of treatment definitely proves the link between elevated triglycerides and acute pancreatitis and sHTG.
Olezarsen demonstrated a favorable safety and tolerability profile in CORE and CORE2. Adverse events were generally balanced across treatment groups, but serious adverse events occurred less frequently in the olezarsen-treated participants. Injection site reactions, which were mostly mild, with the most common treatment-emergent adverse event occurring more frequently with olezarsen compared to placebo.
So in summary, in the pivotal CORE and CORE2 studies in people with sHTG, treatment with olezarsen resulted in highly statistically significant and clinically meaningful mean reductions of up to 72% in placebo-adjusted fasting triglycerides at 6 months, highly statistically significant reduction in acute pancreatitis event rate and a favorable safety and tolerability profile. We look forward to presenting full data from the CORE and CORE2 studies at a medical congress later this year.
We believe that this is an unprecedented and historical achievement in the field of lipidology, where the quest to reduce the risk of acute pancreatitis in sHTG has been ongoing for nearly 50 years. We look forward to providing a new treatment paradigm for patients and caregivers to reduce the risk of acute pancreatitis associated with sHTG.
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Kyle.
Thank you, Sam, and good morning, everyone. This is indeed an exciting day. We're thrilled about what these results from the CORE and CORE2 studies of olezarsen could mean for people living with sHTG. As Sam explained, acute pancreatitis is the most serious complication associated with sHTG. Individuals with triglyceride levels around 880 milligrams per deciliter face a fivefold increased risk of a first AP event, and each attack further increases the risk for another attack.
Each event can cause lasting pancreatic injury such as necrosis and beta cell dysfunction, often leading to diabetes. AP events can also result in systemic complications such as respiratory, renal and cardiac failure. The mortality rate is also higher compared to other causes of AP reaching as high as 8% per triglyceride induced event. These clinical realities are consistent with commentary we hear from physicians treating people with sHTG. One recent quote from a lipidologist KOL sums this commentary up well. He told us, and I quote, "I regularly see sHTG patients suffer their first AP attack. And after that, their pancreas is absolutely destroyed."
With positive data from the CORE and CORE2 studies now in hand, we are confident that olezarsen is uniquely positioned to meet the needs of patients with sHTG and provide physicians with the efficacy they've been seeking in a new, more effective treatment. First, olezarsen demonstrated highly statistically significant and clinically meaningful placebo-adjusted mean reductions of up to 72% in fasting triglycerides.
Second, these triglyceride reductions resulted in a highly statistically significant 85% reduction in acute pancreatitis events making olezarsen the first and only treatment to achieve this positive outcome in people with sHTG. Third, olezarsen demonstrated favorable safety and tolerability. And finally, olezarsen has the potential to offer patients the simplicity of monthly self-administration with an auto-injector, which empowers patients to manage their treatment on their own terms without frequent trips to the doctor.
We believe olezarsen checks all the boxes for what physicians are looking for and a new treatment for sHTG. As another KOL recently told us "a therapy that meaningfully lowers triglycerides and reduces AP events, something we've never seen before would be a game changer in the treatment of sHTG." There are estimated to be more than 3 million people with sHTG in the U.S., as represented by our pyramid shown on this slide. We plan to focus within this high-risk sHTG patient population at launch which includes patients with triglycerides of greater than 880 milligrams per deciliter or with triglycerides of greater than 500 milligrams per deciliter and a history of acute pancreatitis..
At launch, we plan to prioritize high-risk sHTG treaters in the U.S. made up of cardiologists, endocrinologists and lipidologists. These specialists manage the vast majority of the high-risk sHTG patient population. Our cardiometabolic account specialists will focus on these treaters to deliver the same high-quality experience as we are currently achieving in FCS. Looking further into the future, we see sHTG as a growing market with the opportunity to penetrate deeper into the 3 million plus patient population with triglycerides greater than 500 milligrams per deciliter and with the potential to bring the first APOCIII targeted triglyceride lowering therapy to market that has demonstrated highly statistically significant reductions in acute pancreatitis, we are positioned to scale our commercial capabilities as the market evolves.
We have been on quite an exciting journey with olezarsen already, and more important catalysts are still to come. In terms of our next steps, we are planning to present full data from the CORE and CORE2 studies at a medical congress later this year. Following that, we are on track to file our sNDA in the U.S. before the end of the year with additional global filings expected next year. And launch preparations are already underway and moving with urgency as we look to deliver olezarsen to the market for the treatment of sHTG in the second half of next year.
In closing, the top line results from our Phase III CORE and CORE2 studies reinforce what we've long believed. Olezarsen has the potential to transform the treatment landscape for people with severe hypertriglyceridemia. By meaningfully lowering triglycerides and reducing the risk of acute pancreatitis, olezarsen directly addresses the urgent clinical needs of people with sHTG. And our launch strategy is designed to realize olezarsen's blockbuster potential by initially focusing on the people with the greatest unmet need. We're excited about what lies ahead and remain deeply committed to bringing olezarsen to the patients in need.
And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Brett.
Thanks, Kyle, with positive top line results from the CORE and CORE2 studies in hand now, we've taken a major step forward, not just in advancing olezarsen toward a prevalent second indication, but in transforming care for people living with severe hypertriglyceridemia. These results build on our recent successes with TRYNGOLZA for the treatment of FCS and DAWNZERA for the treatment of HAE and demonstrate the strength of our science, pipeline and strategy to deliver innovative new medicines directly to patients in need.
We are thrilled with our recent progress, we're just getting started. In fact, we're on track for a steady cadence of additional new product launches next year, we have the potential to independently launch our first medicine for a neurological disease, zilganersen for the treatment of Alexander disease and to expand TRYNGOLZA'S indication for the treatment of sHTG, of course. Together with TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA, our first 4 independent commercial launches have the potential to deliver multibillion dollar revenue. In the next 2 years, we also have the potential for up to 4 key partnered product launches, each positioned to generate substantial additional revenue for Ionis.
As we advance toward these and future successes, we are doing so from a position of strength and with a culture of innovation. We're building on this with a proven and expanding drug discovery platform, a focused commercial strategy and a team that has independently launched 2 Ionis drugs this year, deeply committed to achieve continued success well into the future. I look forward to keeping you updated as our progress continues. But for now, we'll open the call up for questions. I'd like to ask the folks online asking questions to limit their questions to 1 question and to focus the questions on the olezarsen program overall. Thank you very much. And operator, we can now take questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Akash Tewari with Jefferies.
2. Question Answer
I know your team has talked about net pricing in the kind of 10,000 to 20,000 range. Now that you have this strong absolute trig reduction and AP events, could we see pricing upside versus your guided historical range? And how much does kind of the Medicare Part D redesign affect pricing decisions from here?
Thanks for the question. First, let me start by saying how excited we are about this data that's just been read out for olezarsen in the sHTG patient population, very high unmet need. This is a prevalent population, really complicated dynamics with acute pancreatitis. And this data is really, really so positive, highly statistically significant with reductions in TGs of up to 72%, first and only treatment to significantly reduce AP in people with sHTG.
As it relates to the data, now that we have this information, we need to go out and do the work. This is exactly what we were waiting for so that we can go out and talk to HCPs and talk to payers and understand exactly what the value of olezarsen represents to those different stakeholders. When we do that work, we'll announce the price at the approval of the sHTG indication. And as I stated, it will reflect the value of olezarsen in that patient population. So more to come on that.
And as it relates to the Medicare Part D redesign, again, out-of-pocket costs are going down in this patient population, making drugs more accessible having patients fill prescriptions more frequently and having patients stay on drug longer. So I think we're going to be in a very positive position as it relates to either commercial or Medicare populations. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Gary Nachman with Raymond James.
And congrats on the great data. So for the AP events, the 85% reduction was a great outcome, can you give us a rough idea of the number of events and how it compares to the FCS study when most of the events occurred during the year? And do you think you'll be able to get this AP reduction on the label for severe high trigs? How important will that be to promoting it?
Thanks, Gary. So we've been saying now for nearly 2 years that based on the size of the study and how the CORE and CORE2 studies were enrolling what our mean triglyceride levels were, median triglyceride levels were that we expected to have more AP events in CORE and CORE2 combined than we had in the FCS balance Phase III study. And that absolutely happened. So very, very, very much as expected. We're going to present the detail on all the numbers at the medical congress later this year, as Sam and Kyle highlighted earlier, including the numbers of AP events in total in the different groups and in the CORE and the CORE2 studies separately and so forth. We're very pleased with the results in acute pancreatitis, but we're going to have to leave that there for now.
With respect to timing in the placebo group, the events that I could tell you that if you look at the Kaplan-Meier curves in the balance, FCS Phase III study, we're -- the time course looks similar to what we saw in BALANCE in FCS. And as you recall, we started seeing AP events in the placebo group in the BALANCE study very early on and that study has reported in the New England Journal of Medicine.
Label to be determined. We -- that -- we're just getting started here. We've been preparing the NDA certainly, we think that we will push for the AP data in the label. But I want to remind you, Gary, that the AP data is already in the label. This is a label that will expand using through a supplemental NDA. We have AP in the label for FCS. We hope to have AP in the label for sHTG as well. But that's topic of discussion with the FDA. As far as being able to market the AP data, we are planning to publish the data and Kyle, that will essentially allow us to market AP data. Is that correct?
That's correct. Yes. Our medical affairs teams will obviously use that data as well as our sales teams if the product is approved. And again, I just think this is tremendous data. These are landmark studies and to be able to demonstrate the correlation between olezarsen reductions in TGs and reductions in acute pancreatitis, I think, is very significant here.
And your next question comes from the line of Yanan Zhu with Wells Fargo.
Great. Congrats on the very strong data from CORE and CORE2. So I was just wondering in terms of additional color from the acute pancreatitis endpoint, do you have any -- at this point, any data on the baseline triglyceride levels in those patients who had attacks. And also, any color on whether olezarsen is effective in preventing first-time attacks, given that I expect most of the tax will be from recurrence of patients with prior histories. And any color on the first attack will be very helpful.
I think Kyle mentioned a physician talked about how devastating the first attack is and potentially that will have a big implication on addressable market for the -- for people with -- have no attacks.
Thanks, Yanan. Again, we're going to present all the details on the AP data. I'm going to ask Sam to maybe provide a little bit more color on this, but recognize again that the specifics on the relationship of triglycerides with AP and first time versus second recurrent AP events will be shared at the -- at a medical congress this year -- later this year. But Sam, have at it, maybe you can provide a little bit more color at this point.
Yes. I think it's well known that the relationship of pancreatitis to TG is linear, particularly after 500 milligrams per deciliter. So that's a sort of thing that I think we've seen in the other trials that we worked on and certainly in this trial, your question about the differences in the triglyceride levels, that was not part of our top line data. So we will get that for you later, but we can't tell you right now what the differences were in the triglyceride levels.
So -- but we've also seen, obviously, the patients that have had a prior attack have the highest event rate but new events also for -- in patients without prior attack. And we'll provide that information also, but we've seen AP on both groups that were just mentioned.
Your next question comes from the line of Gena Wang with Barclays.
I also want to add my congress on such impressive data. So quickly, I think regarding the dose, in FCS, you did have approved the 80-milligram dose. Now with this, you do have a very impressive data from both 50-milligram and 80-milligram doses. Any thoughts when moving forward, what will be the dose? Will we stick with 80-milligram doses? Or could there be a possibility have the flexibility of dose -- both doses?
And then a very quick question regarding the sales force, Kyle, can you add some color on potential, how much more sales you need to add and related cost associated in preparation of launch second half next year?
Why don't you start with that, Kyle.
Yes. So our current sales organization is able to address thousands of the highest treaters of sHTG today. And the sales force has been deployed for quite some time, and we're doing a fantastic job with the TRYNGOLZA launch and finding FCS patients and getting those patients on to TRYNGOLZA. When we get to sHTG, those same targets that we're calling on today will also be treaters of this sHTG patient population.
However, there are thousands more treaters that are out there that we'll need to reach. So we will scale our sales organization accordingly to the number of targets that we need to get out in front of. We will be focused in the specialist area, so cardiology, endocrinology and lipidology and we'll be able to size a team to get to tens of thousands of HCPs to educate on sHTG, get the information out about olezarsen and obviously, the positive data that we are sharing today and be able to drive the uptake in the sHTG population.
And your first question, Gena, indeed, both doses look very impressive, and there's no reason why we wouldn't -- couldn't file for both doses for approval with the FDA. But we're still working through the data and aside from the data, we also need to think through our commercial strategy to maximize success on the sHTG market. So we're working through that. So stay tuned, and we'll have more to share with that down the road.
And your next question comes from the line of Jessica Fye with JPMorgan.
Congrats on strong results. So among the 3 groups of high-risk sHTG patients that you're going to be targeting between those with prior AP in triglycerides north of 500, those who are north of 880 and those who are north of 500 with comorbidities, which in your view kind of represents the low-hanging fruit here?
I think what we hear from physicians on a regular basis is all 3 of those groups are very significant, and they've been very challenged at managing these patients effectively. They only have fibrates and fish oils today. Many of these patients are on 1 or both of those. And they are unfortunately not able to get their triglycerides down low enough to get them out of harm's way for AP. An HCP that has seen a patient with acute pancreatitis never wants to have another patient that has acute pancreatitis.
They are very, very concerned about the way that these patients present. It's very hard to treat. These patients can stay in the hospital for an average of 17 days for their AP event. It's very costly to payers. So those with a prior history of AP are definitely at the top of the list. But anyone that's above 880 is also a very, very strong candidate for this product because of the risk of AP and how devastating that can be.
Your next question comes from the line of Jason Gerberry with Bank of America.
I've got another AP question. So were patients in the placebo arm who had AP events hospitalized. And the reason I ask is there's competitor commentary around CORE adjudicating AP as abdominal pain versus perhaps a stricter guideline-driven definition of AP. So I just wonder if you can offer any color around that.
And then specifically with payers, is there any aspect of how you demonstrate an AP reduction that matters with payers and ability to preserve some of this TRYNGOLZA-level pricing because there are a lot of interesting scenarios in terms of perhaps how you leverage this data with payers in a more, I guess, orphan indication here, but I imagine you're going after the larger TAM and so there's a tension there. But any color you can just provide about what payers really care about in terms of how you show that AP benefit.
Yes. Sam, can you briefly walk us through the strict criteria we utilized for assessing the AP events in the studies?
Sure, sure. Yes. So we use an independent adjudication committee and that has set the criteria for what's considered pancreatitis and that usually the modified ATLANTA criteria. And so that is in the charter that's been published before. They've been doing it for 10 years. They have a lots of experience with it. The committee they use to do that is pancreatitis specialists. So Ionis did not set the criteria. This is set independently by that committee. And so the ATLANTA criteria is the classical criteria for doing that. However, these patients sometimes don't get all the classical tests if they've had prior events. And because of that, there's some other modifications of that criteria in that charter.
The bottom line is the vast majority of these cases are documented cases. So for example, in the BALANCE study, which has come up to your question before, 12 out of the 13 of those cases were documented by the ATLANTA criteria. And that's the same criteria we use now, and it's the same kind of trend we're seeing. So there's no doubt that these are real pancreatitis cases. The question is what level of evidence is in that.
And so -- in terms of hospitalizations, yes, many of them are hospitalized. In fact, in the BALANCE study, we have evidence that there's a massive reduction in the days of hospitalization. I don't have that in the top line data to give you an exact number, but a lot of these patients are hospitalized because they're very ill from the side effect.
And just to add to that, Jason, documented is the strictest criteria for determining acute pancreatitis. More than 90% of the patients CORE, CORE2 combined were documented.
And your next question comes from go ahead...
Yes. I was going to address the question on payers, Jason, thanks for asking that and the value of the data that we've just read out on the top line. What we know in the FCS population is obviously the payers appreciate and understand the value of TRYNGOLZA in the FCS population and the correlation to acute pancreatitis, which is currently in the label. We've also been able to demonstrate reductions in ER visits and reductions in hospitalizations.
So what I believe when we get out and are able to test this sHTG data with CORE and CORE2 is payers will see similar value based on the strength of this data to be able to reduce triglycerides up to 72%, reduce AP 85%, we'll be able to correlate that to costs and associated value for the payers and then we will price accordingly and announce that price at the approval of the sHTG indication.
And your next question comes from the line of Luca Issi with RBC Capital.
Congrats on the very strong data here. Maybe 1 more for you, Kyle. I think for some investors, 1 of the most intuitive comp here is actually Vascepa. That drug, I believe, peaked the $600 million in revenues. I wonder if you could comment or whether you think that, that is a reasonable comp for us to think about it or where you think you can do a lot better than that. And then maybe related to it, I think sales for that drug actually selected only after that company ran a cardiovascular outcome trial. So I wonder if running a cardiovascular outcome trial here is part of the plan. Any color there, much appreciated.
Yes. Thanks for the question, Luca. I'll just reiterate. These are landmark studies. This has never been proven before, and olezarsen is the first treatment to show a reduction -- statistically significant reduction in acute pancreatitis. I think that's very, very important in terms of the patient population that is going to be treated here and also the value of the medication and the way that that's going to be reflected in the marketplace. So again, we need to go out and test in a comprehensive way with both physicians and payers to make sure that we understand and can put a stake in the ground in terms of what the cost and the pricing structure will look like here.
That being said, we do expect olezarsen to be a blockbuster opportunity. Based on this data, based on the patient population that's addressable that we were talking about previously of greater than 1 million patients that have high-risk sHTG we believe that we'll be able to work effectively with these specialists and get them on olezarsen quickly and realize the blockbuster potential that this represents.
Yes. And I'd like to Sam to add some color on the Vascepa comparison that you alluded to, Luca. I mean, Vascepa has modest at best triglyceride lowering effects, nothing -- no comparison to what we're seeing for olezarsen in the 70% median range -- mean range here. But Sam, you should touch on that and also talk about the...
Yes, yes. I think -- absolutely. Yes. Thanks for the question. I think it's going to be night and day in terms of how physicians view Vascepa use versus what you see here. The effect of Vascepa in the lower triglycerides is only 19%, and it's maybe up to 30% in the higher TG values. There's absolutely no data that it affects pancreatitis. We're going to be getting 60%, 70% reduction in triglycerides. And so the physician, if you just picture the physician sitting there, if you have a patient with a 700 and they give them Vascepa, they might go to like 550, 500 if they're lucky when they get olezarsen, they're going to go down to probably under 200.
And then you have this massive reduction in pancreatitis, which is unprecedented. And so you're going to have a drug that's 2 or 3x more potent and it has the kind of data that physicians have been looking for, for 5 decades. So we think it's going to be way ahead of any kind of comp that you probably have envisioned and it's going to set a new standard for how physicians, I think, look at hypertriglyceridemia and what effectiveness they'll get from the current drug olezarsen.
Thanks, Sam. Yes, I mean, we have our outcome data, acute pancreatitis and we nailed it. Thanks, Luca.
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Ulz with Morgan Stanley.
Congratulations on the data as well. Maybe just a follow-up on the market opportunity. And now with your significant reductions in AP events, how does that impact the thinking in terms of the addressable patient population? Could you capture a broader set of patients maybe earlier than you were previously thinking?
Yes. Thanks, Mike. I think we're really excited about the market opportunity. I showed the 1 slide that shows the 1 million or so patients that have high-risk sHTG, and that will be the beachhead. Specialists are treating these patients. It's a manageable number of HCP targets and a very broad number of patients that can benefit from olezarsen. So that's where we will start. In addition to that, we're able to do very broad disease state education through our marketing efforts, including our omnichannel capabilities to reach tens of thousands of HCPs in the space.
So I believe that this is very strong data. I think it's going to be very motivating. Sam has reflected the view of this data and what it's going to mean to HCPs but this is really unprecedented. And these are landmark studies, and I think we're looking forward to doing some more market research and getting ready for potential approval towards the fourth quarter of next year.
And your next question comes from the line of David Lebowitz with Citi.
This is Ike Lee on for David Lebowitz. When you say manageable number of HCP targets, how do you think about the capital allocation when it comes to hiring a larger sales force? Have you done the work yet? And just do you know about a ballpark on what the outlay is going to be when it comes time for this launch, which is significantly larger than FCS?
Yes. Thanks, Ike, for the question. So a manageable number of targets is probably in the ballpark of about 20,000 specialists today. Again, that covers cardiology, endocrinology and lipidology. They are managing hundreds of thousands of these sHTG patients that could potentially benefit from olezarsen. In terms of the scale-up and the size of the organization, we will build a team that is sized appropriately in order to reach about 20,000 or so HCPs. The costs associated with that have been built into our commercial plan and our commercial build-out.
As you think about the commercial organization and what we've done from the very beginning with WAINUA and then TRYNGOLZA, DAWNZERA and now potentially sHTG, we've done this very thoughtfully and very strategically in terms of our build, and we've done it very responsibly in terms of how we've invested in the commercial organization, in order to get there, and we'll continue to invest accordingly as we move forward. But this is all in the budget, and we're looking forward to building the team out in 2026.
And your next question comes from the line of Yaron Werber with TD.
Congrats on that really terrific data. Just 2 interrelated questions. One for Kyle, one for Sam. Maybe Sam for you first. I know you did a, I believe, an abdominal MRI sub-study to look at fat around hepatic fat, any top line results from that?
And then for Kyle, of the 1.2 million patients, do you have a sense -- I'm trying to get the ones that really have greater than AD and a history of AP and are being treated currently. How many patients fit that criteria because that's sort of the initial low-hanging fruits.
So if I could on the first part, yes, we're really due to a variety of reasons, particularly presentation at meetings, et cetera, we can only present what we thought was material secondary endpoints and that's pancreatitis. So for your question is a good one, but we'll have to address that as we go forward and have a little bit more time to analyze that aspect of the study.
Yes. We'll be presenting all the secondary endpoints in addition to AP at a medical meeting later this year, Yaron. We're pleased with all the secondary endpoints related to efficacy and safety.
And as it relates to the patient population in the 1.2 million, greater than 500 with a history of AP, there are approximately 60,000 of those patients in the U.S. today. Greater than 880 and are also being treated are upwards of $600,000, and that includes patients on fibrates and fish oils and other triglyceride-lowering agents. So that is what we believe to be the highest unmet need today and the greatest opportunity for us to establish a beachhead and then grow the market and the opportunity for olezarsen from there.
And your next question comes from the line of Myles Minter with William Blair.
This is Jake on for Myles. Congrats on the data. You guys noted the percentage of patients in each study that have above 880 mg per deciliter triglycerides at baseline. But I was just wondering if you have a percentage of patients that are considered high-risk sHTG when you consider pancreatitis history?
And then secondly, just wanted to hear any color about potential differences that you saw in trig lowering in the placebo arm of your CORE and CORE2 studies.
Yes. Sam, why don't you take the second question first. The changes in placebo between CORE and CORE2 explanations.
Sure. Yes. We're looking into this now. We're very pleased with the CORE study, which was the first one and the larger of the 2. And there's a lot of variability in triglycerides in general. It's much more than for LDL, for LPA for HTL. And so that often can be part of a natural variability and for some reason, the second study had more of that. We did try to mitigate that. And I think we did a really good job in CORE. So we did that with dietary advice. We asked the patient not to go on medications during the trial that have to be on stable medications, et cetera, et cetera.
The inclusion criteria were identical, but the sites were a bit different in some of the geographic areas where they were recruited were different because we couldn't obviously do 2 trials in the same site. So we are looking into this now. I can't answer your question right now, but the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. But either way, if you just look at the data from the -- take the placebo out of it, the drug is very potent if you just look at baseline to change. So we had a 63% reduction with the 50-milligram in both arms, and we had like a 68% and 73% if you just do pre-and-post.
So the drug is behaving extremely well in these patients, but there's variability in the placebo group, and we'll hopefully be able to figure out why there were differences when we have more time to analyze the data.
And Jake, regarding the makeup of the triglyceride in the studies, Sam mentioned in his prepared remarks, the mean levels of triglycerides in both studies were over 1,000. So we had plenty of patients that were above 880 in this study. We published that in our baseline demographics paper, as I recall, but there was a substantial number of patients that would be considered using Kyle -- one of Kyle's definitions of high risk above 880.
And of course, we also had patients that had a history of acute pancreatitis within the last 10 years, 13%, I believe, in CORE2 and 21% or so, 22% in CORE reflecting higher triglyceride mean levels in CORE versus CORE2. So we're going to have plenty of patients that meet the criteria that Kyle laid out as high-risk sHTG patients in our CORE studies. And we'll share all that data later this year.
And I think we have time for one more question for wrap up.
Our last question will be from Mani Foroohar with Leerink Partners.
You have Ryan on for Mani. And congrats on the data. Maybe just one last AP question and more conceptually speaking, but based off all the olezarsen data that you guys have seen across Phase II and Phase III studies, do you think that AP reduction continuously improves as you lower TGs below 400 or even sub 200 mg per deciliter. Or do you think it's more about getting patients below a predefined protective threshold that almost eliminates the development of AP events?
Sam, please take that.
Sure. That's a great question and a lot of interest for us. And we don't have the answer whether it's a threshold effect or a linear effect. But what we do have is a tremendous database now of close to 4,000 patients where we can address that. What we can tell you is that unlike statin trials, which sometimes it takes a year to 2 to see separation of the curves.
As Brett mentioned earlier, you get an immediate benefit when you lower triglycerides. So recall in the volanesorsen meta-analysis in England Journal of Medicine within the first couple of weeks, they were already placebo cases and then just continue to accumulate. Same thing with the BALANCE study. So one difference between, say, LDL type study versus a triglyceride study is you get an immediate benefit and then the curve, the slope seems to stay the same. And so it continues to accrue events and placebo.
When you look at the treatment groups, you do get some events, but they're usually like in the single digits, maybe 2, 3, something like that, and then they just say flat all the way across. So we'll know when we do our open label studies and when there's clinical use of the drug in the broader population, those questions will be addressed plus mining our data. But it looks like both could be true, but whatever the underlying mechanism is, once you get people on this drug, you basically get about an 80% to 90% reduction in pancreatitis.
We've shown that now in every study that we've done. And so we feel like this is really an amazing advance for the patients and for documented the hypothesis, and we anticipate that benefit to continue to accrue over time as patient gets treated for 5, 10 years or more.
Thanks, Sam. Thanks, Ryan. Thanks, everybody, for joining us today on this -- in this really exciting, exciting day. We look forward to sharing additional information on the olezarsen program as well as our rich pipeline throughout the year. I want to remind everybody that we are hosting -- Ionis is hosting our biannual Innovation Day in New York City on October 7. We're certainly going to do a deep dive into the olezarsen program as well as our technology and the rest of our rich pipeline and our commercial strategy going forward. So we really do hope to see you all there. But until then, have a great day, everybody.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Special Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Special Call - Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernergebnis: Phase‑III CORE/CORE2 (n≈1.063) lieferten top‑line: placebo‑adjustierte Nüchtern‑Triglycerid‑Reduktionen bis zu 72% nach 6 Monaten und eine gepoolte 85% Reduktion adjudizierter akuter Pankreatitis‑Ereignisse (12 Monate). Sicherheit günstig; vollständige Daten folgen auf einem medizinischen Kongress. sNDA‑Einreichung in den USA bis Jahresende; geplanter Launch H2 2026.
📌 Strategische Highlights
- Kommerzplan: First‑mover‑Position in sHTG, Fokus auf hochriskante Patienten (≥880 mg/dL oder ≥500 mg/dL mit vorheriger AP). Monatliche Selbstinjektion (Auto‑Injector); mögliche Einreichung beider Dosen (50/80 mg). Verkaufsteam soll skaliert werden, Ziel ≈20.000 Spezialisten (Kardio, Endokrin, Lipidologie).
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Gepoolte 85% Reduktion der adjudizierten AP‑Ereignisse (p=0.0002) ist erstmals in sHTG‑Pivotalstudien nachgewiesen. CORE: placebo‑adjust. TG‑Reduktionen 63% (50 mg) und 72% (80 mg). CORE2: 49%/55% (50/80 mg). ESSENCE (moderates HTG) in NEJM publiziert: −58%/−61%.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Preis & Payer: Management hält bisher an historischem Netto‑Rahmen $10–20k, will finale Preisfestlegung nach Gesprächen mit Kostenträgern bei Zulassung; Medicare Part D‑Änderungen werden als positiv für Adhärenz gesehen.
- AP‑Daten: Adjudikation durch unabh. Komitee nach modifizierten Atlanta‑Kriterien; >90% der Fälle dokumentiert; genaue Ereigniszahlen und Timing werden am Kongress offengelegt (Management verwies auf spätere Detailpräsentation).
- Dosis & Launch: Beide Dosen zeigen starke Effekte; Firma prüft Filing‑Optionen und skaliert Sales entsprechend Bedarf.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Top‑line reduziert regulatorisches und klinisches Risiko für eine sHTG‑Indikation deutlich und steigert kommerzielle Perspektive. Wichtige near‑term‑Katalysatoren: vollständige Datenausgabe beim Kongress, sNDA‑Einreichung bis Jahresende und potentieller US‑Launch H2 2026. Risiken bleiben: finale Label‑Verhandlungen, Preis-/Payer‑Akzeptanz und Langzeitdaten.
Finanzdaten von Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Umsatz
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Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
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Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Jun '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 874 874 |
7 %
7 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 16 16 |
52 %
52 %
2 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 858 858 |
8 %
8 %
98 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 528 528 |
67 %
67 %
60 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | 925 925 |
5 %
5 %
106 %
|
|
| EBITDA | -579 -579 |
123 %
123 %
-66 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 15 15 |
133 %
133 %
2 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | -594 -594 |
123 %
123 %
-68 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | -565 -565 |
111 %
111 %
-65 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen USD.
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Firmenprofil
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. beschäftigt sich mit der Entwicklung und Kommerzialisierung von humantherapeutischen Medikamenten unter Verwendung der Antisense-Technologie. Das Unternehmen ist in den Segmenten Ionis Core und Akcea Therapeutics tätig. Das Segment Ionis Core nutzt eine neuartige Arzneimittelentdeckungsplattform, um eine Pipeline von Medikamenten zu generieren. Das Segment Akcea Therapeutics entwickelt und vermarktet Medikamente für kardiometabolische Erkrankungen. Das Unternehmen wurde 1989 von Stanley T. Crooke, David J. Ecker, Christopher K. Mirabelli und Brett P. Monia gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Carlsbad, CA.
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| Hauptsitz | USA |
| CEO | Dr. Monia |
| Mitarbeiter | 1.402 |
| Gegründet | 1989 |
| Webseite | www.ionis.com |


