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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 23,35 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 5,36 Mrd. $
Marktkapitalisierung = 23,35 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 5,74 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 19,36 Mrd. $ | Umsatz (TTM) = 5,36 Mrd. $
Enterprise Value = 19,36 Mrd. $ | Umsatz erwartet = 5,74 Mrd. $
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Incyte Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
35 Analysten haben eine Incyte Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
35 Analysten haben eine Incyte Prognose abgegeben:
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Incyte — Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. It's my pleasure to introduce the Incyte management team. With me, I have Bill Meury, CEO; and Pablo Cagnoni, President and Global Head of R&D.
To start here, Bill, could you give us an overview of where the company stands today, including your core franchises, Jakafi and Opzelura? The pipeline priorities and just how you're thinking about, big question. But outlook and strategy for the company as we look to the next 3 years?
Sure. I mean, big picture, we're transitioning Incyte from a single cornerstone product to what we believe will be a portfolio of growth drivers. We think about the business across 3 dimensions, as you know, hematology, oncology and immunology. We also break the business down into 3 parts: a core business, a pipeline and then, of course, business development.
When we look at our core business today, all the products ex Jakafi, that business will finish this year in the range of about $1.7 billion, up 30-plus percent versus prior year. It's relevant because by the time we hit 2030, the transition, we estimate that core business will be doing about $3 billion to $4 billion. So right now, it's funding the pipeline, and it will set a floor.
Then we look at the pipeline. Today, we have 8 assets, including VGA039, the Star deal. That have the potential on an unadjusted basis to 2x the company. The -- and they're supported by 14 clinical studies, 15 clinical studies that will be underway in Phase III. We don't have to be perfect here.
The 4 assets that I think have a high PTRS, will get approved and contribute meaningfully to the company are 989, our monoclonal antibody targeting mCALR, G12D, povorcitinib and now VGA039 for Von Willebrand's disease. You don't need heroic assumptions, assuming we successfully complete the Phase III programs to get to a multibillion-dollar sales level with that group. You layer that right on top of the core business.
Business development will be used just to simply strengthen, extend the core. And what happens is the pipeline becomes the core business, and we expect has the potential to drive top quartile growth from '29, '30 out to '30, '35.
Could you touch on the business development side? So you announced the transaction for Star Therapeutics yesterday. How are you thinking about BD from here? And why Star? What are you solving for when you look at the overall pipeline? And then what are you adding as you go forward?
I'll start with your last question. What we're solving for is growth post 2029. And when we looked at the Star deal, and I've said this a few times now, it was as close to a textbook example of the type of deal that makes sense for Incyte. Its sort of checked all the boxes. First, it's novel. In other words, we're not dealing with incremental innovation. We're not in a situation where we're going to be maximizing marginal differences or we're a late entrant. It has standard of care potential in von Willebrand's disease. That's number one.
Number two, it's in hematology. That's the central identity of the company. We have differentiated knowledge and capabilities there, and we have all the R&D and commercial infrastructure we need. Number three, it has the potential to really move the needle in terms of our top line, and it could be highly growth and revenue accretive. It's in Phase III. So the timing is right. And we did a deal that was structured. The economics made sense for the seller and they made sense for us.
And so I think it's a good phenotype for the type of thing that we should be doing right now, very complementary to the business, the right risk/reward profile. We use only basically just over 20% of our go-forward balance sheet. So we still have flexibility going forward. And our view here is that we have a tight framework and criteria. If something is in the framework, we can act fast. If something is not, we are very comfortable being patient here, and that's how we're going to view it.
Great. Let's start with the myelofibrosis or the MPN business here. So for Jakafi XR, you launched the drug last month, priced at parity with Jakafi, acknowledging your expectations that 2026 will primarily be focused here on formulary coverage. What are you seeing in these early days of launch? And what do you want to see over the coming quarters to give you confidence in reaching that upper end of your 10% to 30% guidance range?
Yes, it's a good question. As it relates to formulary coverage, I can provide an update. We're about 30 days in. Optum has added XR to formulary. CVS has added XR to formulary. 14 regional plans have added XR to formulary and 4 Medicaid states. And so as it relates to formulary coverage, we are off to a good start.
Conversion or uptake for XR will be measured early and tied to formulary coverage, and we expect really a step change when you get to January 2027, and you're going to want to be converting at 1 point, 1.5 points a month. That would be this working. As it relates to what would get us to the upper end of the range, in which case we preserve north of $1 billion in Jakafi sales. It starts with coverage and really just moving prescribers and patients to think about XR before IR.
We have obviously a very large professional promotion effort in place. We cover all the major hematologist prescribers in the country. We also have a patient database, and we're able to communicate with Jakafi patients. And so as you know, with these launches, it's about execution. So far, it's set up. If we're in the middle of our range, that's good. And if we're at the upper end of the range, there's only upside in that.
Why couldn't it be higher than the range you've given?
When you're dealing with an XR conversion, remember, there's new patients and there's current patients. IR makes a great deal of sense for new patients. When you're moving someone off of a drug IR to XR when they're are current, that takes a little bit more time. And I think there's a certain amount of inertia in the market that you have to recognize. Now you can solve for that with a lot of activity, and I think that's what we're going to try to do.
Great. And should we expect you to disclose sales or other metrics over the near-term?
Yes. We'll provide an update on formulary coverage, prescriptions, and you will see the sales. Right now, we have about $10 million to $12 million in sales today. I think by the end of the year, that number could be in the range of about $50 million to $75 million.
Alright. Pablo, turning over to you on the mCALR program here. So that program remains the primary focus from a pipeline perspective and revenue replacement strategy ahead of the upcoming presentations at EHA, walk us through where the program stands today and your level of confidence in successfully bringing this to the market in both the second-line and first-line settings in MF?
Certainly. So we will have an update at EHA as you pointed out. We'll have an update on the ET population, an update on the MF population and a translational update as well. And when you look at overall what this program is, let's start with ET. We'll present an update to probably around 100 patients at EHA.
And I think what consistently we're seeing is very high rates of complete hematologic response regarding 70% or so in type 1 patients, that number is even higher. It's probably around 90%, and it's lower in patients with non-type 1 mutation. We've known that now for quite some time. Very importantly, the safety profile of 989 continues to be very clean. A lot of patients, almost all the patients are still on drug, a very, very low percentage of patients that had to discontinue.
In addition, in second-line ET, we have alignment now with FDA, and we're in the process of launching the first pivotal trial for 989. I'm highly confident that in second-line ET, when you look at the historical numbers for post-hydroxyurea interventions in the 30% to 40% complete hematologic response and not a lot of them with durability, the data that we've shown for 989 gives me a lot of confidence that this medicine will have a positive second-line ET trial and eventually, we'll get it to market.
So now the role -- the goal here is execution in second-line ET, getting that off the ground and enroll as fast as possible.
On the MF side, you have data in the abstract and we'll update it during the meeting, and there's 2 separate important messages there. In this update, it's not a true frontline population that will be updated at ASH at the end of the year. But what you'll see is post-Jakafi or post-rux, patients and a group of patients that were what we call ineligible for Jakafi.
So let's start with the first one. We have SVR35 rates that we reported before, has trended approximately the same, percentage points here and there lower. But overall, the data looks consistent with what we've shown in the past. Importantly, the anemia data continues to get better.
And when you think about what 989 does, which is basically normalizing hematopoiesis in these patients, basically suppressing, eliminating the malignant clone, allowing the benign wild-type cells to grow back, that's why the anemia continues to get better. It's getting in the 60% range or so, which we think is pretty impressive in this pretreated patient population.
The other thing you're going to see is that in the JAK [ SVR35 ] is very high. And that gives us a lot of data that we'll have later this year and about the possibility to accelerate the development of 989, both in second-line MF and first-line MF as well. In second-line MF, we're already in the process of starting conversations with FDA in order to build a new framework, a new regulatory framework for these patients, which would be a composite endpoint, which will incorporate some of the things we're talking about, including some aspect of this normalization of hematopoiesis represented by anemia.
We'll see how those conversations go. If we need to go with SVR35, I'm confident we can get the trial design with a high probability of success anyway based on the data that we already have.
And then the next step is as quickly as possible once we have all the data in-house for the first-line MF population is to launch the first-line MF trial, which we probably will initiate early in 2027. So that's the goal. By this time in 2027, probably earlier, we'll have 3 pivotal trials ongoing with 989, second-line ET, second-line MF and first-line MF. That's the goal.
Got it. If XR could get you to $1 billion at the high end of the range, what does mCALR give you in terms of revenue replacement of Jakafi?
Yes, it's a good question. We'll take ET and MF, which both can contribute equally to, let's call it, the peak sales potential of this product. In ET, the best way to think about it is 20,000 people with the mutation and ET. Half of them, roughly 50% are not fully responding to hydroxyurea, not because it's not a really good cytoreductive agent, but because people can't get to the therapeutic dose due to toxicity. That's 10,000 people.
At biologic pricing, call it, $250,000 a year, that's a $2.5 billion TAM. So what percentage of that segment does 989 get? If it gets all of it, it would be a $2.5 billion opportunity. If it gets half of it, we still have $1 billion plus coming from ET. Another way to think about it is 5,000 people in the United States have the mutation and are resistant to hydroxyurea, which is a negative prognostic indicator. You probably get most of those. Again, you kind of get to $1 billion, multiple roads there. That's half the product.
The other half is MF. I think the most important point of what Pablo said is that, we're very encouraged. We can't call it yet. We'll know more at the end of the year at ASH with the frontline performance of 989. When it's used earlier, it does better, especially in the type 1 population. Type 1 patients are 75% of MF.
There's 10,000 people with the mutation and MF. That's a $2.5 billion segment. If you're in the front line, you get more of it. If you're in the second line, you get a little bit less. Either way, I think both indications can get 989 into that $2 billion to $3 billion range. And that would be a real success for us.
Yes. That's great. Pablo, going back to you here. You have an end of Phase II meeting with the FDA later this summer to discuss the potential for a new composite endpoint for the -- for a pivotal Phase III here in second-line MF. Maybe walk us through the strategy here and how critical this is to Phase III success in both the second line and frontline and what the implications for the field and competitors are if the FDA does move forward with this? And does it really set a new bar here?
So the argument here, which I think it's important to understand is the reason why SVR35 and TSS50 are there is simply because 15 years ago or 16 years ago, it was clear that Jakafi was very good at shrinking spleen and improving symptoms. And so they were put there and everybody has had to use those endpoints in MF since then.
While 989 does shrink spleens and improved symptoms, and we've shown that data very clearly at EHA and ASH last year, it has a completely different mechanism and a different impact on this disease, which we -- the term to summarize that I use is, it normalizes hematopoiesis. But that's basically reflected in a dramatic improvement in anemia that we've seen that, again, we reported at ASH last year.
When you take that into account and about the fact that anemia, its a better correlate to long-term survival in these patients that SVR35, really reach a point that you say, well, it's time to figure it out, how to incorporate this knowledge into a novel endpoint. And this is, by the way, data has been generated independently of us. It's been published by a group of experts showing that other factors than SVR35 and TSS50 have better correlates with long-term survival in MF patients. So that's the argument that we put together.
Obviously, the data has been published. There's support from the scientific community, both in the U.S. and in Europe about really redefining how these medicines are approved. If we can't get there with FDA, I'm confident an SVR35, TSS50 focused trial is still a trial we can win.
When you look at the comparable data in second-line MF in patients with no washout from Jakafi, the SVR35 to momelotinib in that group of patients is 7%. We've been reporting rates around 30% now since ASH last year, and you'll see another update on Saturday. So that's still a trial we can win. We just think it's important to change the regulatory paradigm. But if we have to stick with SVR35 and TSS50, we'll do that and still think we're going to have a way to run a positive trial.
And just on a related point, we've been monitoring the impact of mCALR on VAF, which has been fairly modest thus far in MF. At which time point should we expect this -- or expect to see this meaningfully improve? And how critical is it to the drug's long-term success?
So let's remember what VAF tells us and what it doesn't tell us because I think it's really important. VAF is basically, VAF in peripheral blood is basically taking a pool of cells, a highly heterogeneous cell population and measuring the frequency of the variable -- the different -- the wild-type and the mutated allele in that population. It's a ratio. And the important point there is in MF, the wild-type population is smaller. So changing that ratio with a small population takes longer to grow, it's harder.
And second, it's going to be a lagging indicator to what's going on in the bone marrow. In addition, VAF measures cells that are CALR mutated positive, but thrombopoietin receptor negative, and those cells are not affected by the antibody. They have to die on their own. They're nonmalignant. They don't lead to the disease, and they have to die on their own.
When you put all that together, we think over time, VAF will continue to improve, but it's a much lower indicator of what's going on. What we pay a lot of attention, and we'll update this at EHA is the megakaryocytes in the bone marrow, which are the source of the disease. So we measure CALR mutated megakaryocytes and wild-type megakaryocytes, and thats how we're seeing a shift. The mutated ones are going down, the wild-type are going up.
Then we look at immature cells in peripheral blood, CD34-positive, CALR-mutated cells in peripheral blood, and we again see those going down. And the third, we see normal red cell progenitors in the bone marrow going up. All that is telling us the right things are happening.
When you look at VAF, the magnitude may be modest, as you pointed out, but almost all the patients are pointing down in that waterfall. So we're seeing that the malignant clone is going away as represented by that. I think over time, VAF should continue to get better. We're not too focused on VAF. I know there's a lot of interest in seeing that. I would focus more on what's going on in the bone marrow and what's going on in the peripheral blood progenitors.
Great. There's an expanding competitive landscape that's playing out within MPNs, including J&J into more of mCALR and Lilly and AJAKs on the JAK inhibition side, where we've seen more data, I guess, for the EHA abstract and expect to see initial data from the mCALR programs over the next 12 months or so. What are you monitoring most closely from a competitive perspective? And how are you thinking about differentiation and positioning relative to these assets?
I'll just make a few comments and let Pablo expand. What we're focused on right now is our programs, obviously. As Pablo said, we have an opportunity by the middle of '27 to have 3 Phase III trials. I think as it relates to the other monoclonal antibody, thoughtful antibody design, no human data. So not a lot to say there. As it relates to the opportunity that type-2 JAK2, I think that it's an apples-and-oranges comparison.
One is a symptomatic therapy, optimizing or maximizing spleen volume reduction and symptoms versus a potentially disease-modifying therapy. I don't think it's an either/or. I think in a CALR population, if we can replicate in Phase III what we're seeing in Phase I, we have a solid path to build a very important product for us. And as it relates to the T-cell engagers, more advanced disease, and it could have a role, and we have to focus on ours, not J&J's. That's my view.
Just to complete a couple of points there. Look, our goal, as we stated last year is by the end of this decade is to have a targeted therapy for every single patient on MPN. In order to do that, we need to execute on the current plan. We have the understanding of the space. We know this biology. We have the right team in place. We have these medicines that we've been talking about in the clinic and launching pivotal trials as we speak.
And we also have a number of next-generation programs that we're working on. So we're going to continue to innovate in the space. We have the critical mass in place to continue to expand our presence in MPNs, and we will. So obviously, you always follow your competitors. You don't underestimate anyone, but our goal and our focus is to execute on the current programs.
And just the last one to round out the questions on MPNs here. Where does your mutant-selective 617F program stand? And are you seeing encouraging signals with new solid dispersion formulation? And when should we expect a go/no-go decision for this lead asset?
So 058 has been a challenging program. The first thing I would say is we remain absolutely convinced that this mechanism will work. If we hit V617F hard enough, we will get positive clinical readouts in patients with V617F mutated MPNs. The program has been challenging. We've been generating data. The data right now are not trending in the direction that we would love to see. So we will reassess the program later this year, and then we'll make decisions.
We have next-generation programs that look much better, molecules that look much better than the lead. We also have the option agreement with Prelude. We're following -- we're tracking the progress, and we can execute the option whenever we think it's the right time. So we're unlikely to present meaningful data later this year, but we will continue to update you as the program progresses.
Bill, moving over to povo here. You have framed this opportunity as a $500 million to $1 billion peak sales outlook in HS across both pre- and post-biologic patients. Walk us through the launch strategy and how you plan to target both of these sub-populations and what needs to play out to reach that upper end of the guidance range?
Yes. We do believe, given the data set, which 70% is in a pre-biologic population and 30% is in the post-biologic patient population that we can capture or garner utilization at sort of both those inflection points. When you look at the data on povo and compare it to that of a biologic, you see high score 50, 75, 90, 100; pain relief, draining tunnel clearance, flare control that rivals the 17s. I think it's indisputable.
The one thing that a JAK inhibitor does is it relieves pain, I think, perhaps as good or better, and it's definitely faster. There's no FDA-approved oral option. Someone gets put on or gets diagnosed with HS, they get an antibiotic or steroid on one end, and then they have to leap over to an IL-17. And so I think this will be an important treatment option for dermatologists and NPs and PAs. The benefit-risk profile in HS, I think, is very attractive.
The most important part of what we're going to do at launch is to educate them on the data, of course, and then garner utilization in both those places. And you're talking about 150,000 patients who are diagnosed and treated. I think some estimates are higher with HS that are not taking any advanced systemic therapy. There's only about 50,000 to 60,000, which is growing on the IL-17s.
HS is unlike IL-13-mediated AD or IL-23-mediated psoriasis. It's a multi-cytokine disease. JAK inhibitors are multi-cytokine inhibitors. And so I think there's real potential here. The most important thing for us to do is to get trial at launch. And if the drug performs in the real-world setting like it did in the clinical trial setting, I think it's going to be a needle mover.
And from a payer perspective, is there any hindrance to really kind of dominating that prebiologic set?
Yes. I think, usually what you worry about in this situation is prior authorizations and steps through, for example, a biosimilar Humira. But it's really difficult to mandate that type of medical exception if the label doesn't. And it is important that we have a label that covers both the pre- and post-biologic setting. If it was to happen and there were drug utilization management measures put in place, they wouldn't be widespread. They wouldn't be universal.
And I think more and more cross-subsidization and bundling agreements are less and less effective given the push for transparency. And even on the PBM side, they want to manage their budgets on a line item-by-line item basis. I believe there's a price point in the end that we can charge that makes sense for the PBMs and the plans and makes sense for Incyte, and we'll manage that during the launch.
And speak to your confidence here for expansions into vitiligo and asthma and PN as you look to growing this product further.
Very high confidence in vitiligo. We have the data. I think the key there, whether it's AbbVie, Pfizer or Incyte is you have to medicalize vitiligo. It has to be perceived, understood as a chronic immune disorder, not an aesthetic or a cosmetic problem. And that does take some time. But it's a -- prevalence is very, very high. We know, given our experience with Opzelura, what it's going to take to commercialize povorcitinib for vitiligo. And that could be $0.25 billion that you're adding on.
There is a bull case there what's bigger just based on the prevalence numbers. But I think you have to be clear-eyed about where that category is in terms of diagnosis and treatment. PN is an itch disease. We'll have those data at the end of the year. There's one thing JAK inhibitors do well, and that's relieve itch and they do it fast. And so I think that is of equal significance to povo as vitiligo is. I mean I think those 2 indications could be $0.5 billion, maybe a little bit more. As it relates to asthma, wait for the data at the end of the year, it's not in our model.
Maybe just a final question here. You continue to sound very confident regarding the profile of your G12D KRAS program and PDAC post the data that we've seen, not just from you, but also from competitors in this space. What drives this level of confidence? And how do you see the drug existing within the landscape with other therapies?
So it's an amazing time in pancreatic cancer research, right? I mean the data -- the data from RevMed was pretty extraordinary. Now when it comes to specifically even G12D mutations, we think we have what looks in our hands, whether you want to call it best-in-class as good as anybody else in class -- we can debate that when we show the data.
What we've been doing over the past few months is, number one, we've been executing on putting in place a frontline Phase III trial of our G12D in combination with chemotherapy, both types of chemotherapy, FOLFIRINOX and GemNab and previously treated pancreatic cancer. The trial is getting off the ground. It's already enrolling patients and it's going quite well.
In parallel with that, we generated data, 2 cohorts or cohort of 50 patients, give or take, half with GemNab, half with FOLFIRINOX. We'll present that data at ESMO, assuming it gets accepted. And we'll have a fair amount of follow-up in order to give you an idea, not just the responses, but the durability. We're very happy the way that data are evolving. Hopefully, you will agree when we show it later this year.
What we've also done is combine a G12D with Erbitux, which is something that daraxonrasib can't do because of the rash. So we thought that angle in colorectal cancer was very important. And we've also combined it with chemotherapy plus Erbitux. All that data as part of the potential expansion into colorectal cancer will be presented later this year as well.
So we're really excited how the program is trending. We really like the way the data are evolving, and you should expect not just continued evolution in first-line pancreatic, but also an expansion of the program to other indications.
Great. Maybe just one last question. Anything else I did not ask about that you want to highlight as you look forward here?
I think on Niktimvo, which has become a nice incremental growth driver for the company, we'll have data at the end of the year looking at Niktimvo in combination with Jakafi, which would result in a steroid-free regimen for patients with GVHD. And I think that is an important outcome to watch.
Great. And Opzelura seems to be on track?
The Opzelura looks good. The AD launch in Europe, I think, will be important to keeping that product on a solid growth trajectory. And also, we have Opzelura -- we have a study with Opzelura in HS that will report out in the fourth quarter. And there's no FDA-approved topical treatment. It would be for mild-to-moderate disease. Our Phase II study, the HiSCR50 rate in HS was 79%. Now vehicle was high, too. The Phase III study, we're using an HiSCR75 endpoint to have Opzelura as a topical for mild-to-moderate and to have povo for moderate-to-severe creates a franchise and a sequencing strategy that could be very valuable.
Great. Well, with that, thank you so much. Appreciate the time.
Thank you.
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Incyte — Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Incyte — Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Incyte positioniert sich als Portfolio-Unternehmen: Kernumsätze finanzieren eine breite Pipeline mit mehreren potenziellen Blockbustern und gezielter M&A‑Disziplin.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Management will Incyte von einem Ein-Produkt-Unternehmen zu einem Multi‑Franchise-Biotech wandeln: Kernumsatz (ex Jakafi) finanziert Pipeline und erlaubt selektive Zukäufe; Ziel sind mehrere Phase‑III-Starts bis 2027 und Top‑Quartil‑Wachstum ab 2029/2030.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Pipeline-Fokus: Vier Schlüsselassets (989 mCALR, G12D KRAS, povorcitinib, VGA039 für Von‑Willebrand) sollen Mehrfachmilliarden-Umsätze ermöglichen, 989 als zentraler Ersatz für Jakafi.
- Business Development: Star/ VGA039 als »Lehrbuch«-Deal: hämatologische Ausrichtung, Phase‑III‑Timing, ökonomisch sinnvoll; nur ~20% der künftigen Bilanzkapazität verwendet, Flexibilität bleibt.
- Kommerzielle Prioritäten: Jakafi XR‑Launch: frühe Formular‑Erfolge (Optum, CVS, mehrere Regionen), ambitionierte Conversion‑Ziele; povorcitinib (povo) will sowohl prä‑ als auch post‑biologische HS‑Patienten adressieren.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Star-Deal: VGA039 für Von‑Willebrand bestätigt als akquisitorischer Hebel mit Phase‑III‑Status und Umsatzpotenzial.
- Jakafi XR: 30 Tage nach Launch: Formulary‑Zugänge; aktuelle Verkäufe $10–12 Mio., Jahresendziel $50–75 Mio. genannt.
- 989‑Roadmap: Mehrere pivotal trials geplant/gestartet (2. Linie ET, 2./1. Linie MF), EHA/ASH‑Updates als near‑term Katalysatoren; G12D Phase‑III in PDAC läuft.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- XR‑Uptake: Analysten hakten zu Tempo und Hürden der Umstellung von IR auf XR; Management nannte konkrete Formular‑Erfolge und monatliche Conversionziele, glaubte aber an Marktträgheit bei Switches.
- mCALR‑Endpoint: Diskussion um neues composites regulatorisches Endpoint vs. klassisches SVR35/TSS50; Management sucht FDA‑Abstimmung, bleibt vorbereitet auf beide Wege.
- Wettbewerb & Risiken: Konkurrenz in MPNs (Monoklonale AKs, JAK‑Inhibitoren, T‑cell Engager) wird beobachtet; Incyte setzt auf Differenzierung durch krankheitsmodifizierende Data‑Story und eigene MPN‑Tiefe.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Event lieferte klare Roadmap: mehrere near‑term Daten (EHA/ESMO/ASH), Phase‑III‑Programme 2027 und gezielte M&A sollen Jakafi‑Lücke stopfen. Hauptchancen sind 989 und VGA039; Hauptrisiken bleiben regulatorische Endpunktfragen, Launch‑Execution (XR, povo) und ein schwieriges V617F‑Programm.
Incyte — Incyte Corporation, Vega Therapeutics, Inc. - M&A Call
1. Management Discussion
Greetings, and welcome to today's Incyte conference call and webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Alexis Smith, Vice President, Head of Investor Relations. Alexis, please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. The press release and presentation for today's call can be found on the Investors page of our website. Today, I'm joined by Bill Meury, Chief Executive Officer; Pablo Cagnoni, President and Global Head of R&D; and Dave Gardner, Chief Strategy Officer, who will offer prepared remarks; Suketu Upadhyay, Chief Financial Officer; and Steven Stein, Chief Medical Officer, will join us for the Q&A portion of today's call.
Before we begin, I would like to point out that we will be making forward-looking statements, which are based on our current expectations and beliefs. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially. I encourage you to consult the risk factors in our SEC filings for additional details.
With that, I'll hand it over to Bill.
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Today, we're announcing Incyte's acquisition of Star Therapeutics Vega program centered on VGA039, a first-in-class Phase III asset in von Willebrand disease that we believe can become an important new growth driver for Incyte. I'll briefly cover why this deal makes sense strategically and financially, and then Pablo will walk through the data and development path, and Dave will discuss the market opportunity and commercial framework. We conducted extensive due diligence on this asset across scientific, translational, clinical, safety, regulatory and commercial dimensions and came away with a high level of conviction in both the strength of the data and the attractiveness of the opportunity.
VGA039 checks all the boxes we look for in a business development opportunity. It's squarely within our core, hematology, the science, the disease and the R&D and commercial operating models are all areas where Incyte has real expertise. Second, VGA039 is supported by a high-quality, consistent data package with 3 layers of validation, mechanistic validation through target engagement, translational validation through restoration of thrombin generation and clinical validation with strong early human efficacy and safety data.
Third, the development path is clear and manageable with alignment already in place with regulators who granted VGA039 breakthrough designation for the treatment of von Willebrand disease earlier this year. And importantly, it has the potential to be highly accretive to sales and growth post '29 with approximately $1 billion or more in net sales potential. Taken together, we believe this structured transaction is strategically aligned, financially meaningful and consistent with our framework for capital allocation and value creation. The acquisition fits directly into our broader strategy, transitioning Incyte beyond a single cornerstone product. We're constructing a portfolio of multiple growth drivers rather than making one oversized bet, and VGA fits this strategy well. It strengthens our pipeline and represents a smart use of capital with an attractive upside and manageable risk profile.
On a product level, as you'll hear from Pablo and Dave, VGA039 is designed to restore normal thrombin generation and reduce bleeding by modulating Protein S activity. Current treatments for von Willebrand disease are burdensome, inconvenient and are often failed to adequately control bleeding. If successful, VGA039 has the potential to become the standard of care for a sizable underserved patient population and to be for von Willebrand disease, what HEMLIBRA has been for hemophilia A.
With that, let me turn it over to Pablo.
Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Our interest in this opportunity begins with a significant medical need and a novel first-in-class therapeutic approach that we believe could address key limitations of existing therapies. Von Willebrand disease is the most common inherited bleeding disorder, affecting 135,000 diagnosed patients in the U.S. and many more worldwide. The disease is highly heterogeneous, encompassing multiple subtypes and a broad spectrum of clinical severity. As a result, patients can experience a wide range of bleeding complications with the most common clinical manifestations, including gastrointestinal bleeding, other mucosal bleeds and heavy menstrual bleeding.
Many of these bleeds can be managed outside the hospital setting. However, recurrent or severe episodes, especially GI bleeding and in rare cases, critical organ bleeding can be clinically significant and are the leading causes of emergency visits and hospitalizations. Patients with more severe disease can also experience hemophilia-like bleeds, including joint or muscle bleeds. The underlying cause of von Willebrand disease is a deficiency or dysfunction of von Willebrand factor or VWF, a key protein involved in normal blood clotting or hemostasis. VWF plays a dual role in hemostasis by helping platelets adhere to sites of vascular injury and by stabilizing clotting Factor VIII.
When VWF is absent, reduced or dysfunctional, both platelet function and coagulation can be impaired, resulting in prolonged recurrent or spontaneous bleeding. Diagnosis includes bleeding history and specialized testing that measures the amount and function of von Willebrand factor with the latter determining disease subtype. In the United States, an estimated 35,000 patients have clinically significant disease burden and receive care at specialized hemophilia treatment centers or HTCs. Current management includes on-demand treatment for acute bleeds and prophylaxis, which is based primarily on von Willebrand factor replacement. While prophylaxis can be effective, it requires frequent infusions and breakthrough bleeding is still common.
Despite guideline support, prophylaxis remains underutilized, primarily due to the onerous nature of the schedule of infusions. These limitations underscore the need for novel prophylactic therapies that can provide effective bleed prevention while reducing treatment burden. That brings us to VGA039, an anti-protein S monoclonal antibody designed to modulate endogenous anticoagulant activity and support more effective hemostasis. Protein S serves as a cofactor for 2 key anticoagulant pathways, TFPI alpha, which regulates the initiation phase of coagulation and activated protein C or APC, which regulates the propagation phase by inactivating Factors Va and VIIIa. By modulating protein S cofactor activity for both pathways, VGA039 is designed to normalize thrombin generation in a controlled manner. The goal is to improve clot formation and stability without replacing von Willebrand factor and without driving excessive systemic coagulation.
This mechanism is particularly compelling in von Willebrand disease where the bleeding phenotype is heterogeneous. By enhancing thrombin generation downstream, independently of the underlying von Willebrand factor defect, VGA039 has the potential to provide broad prophylactic coverage across von Willebrand disease subtypes and bleed types. VGA039 has been evaluated in 4 clinical studies, including VIVID-3, a Phase I/II multi-dose safety and efficacy study in adults and adolescents. In the trial, patients received a monthly subcutaneous dose of VGA039 over a 17-week treatment period with the option to continue into VIVID-5, an open-label extension trial. Enrolled patients had a history of serious and/or frequent bleeding episodes, including mucosal bleeds, GI bleeding and hemophilia-like joint and muscle bleeds.
Pre-study historical annual bleed rates or ABRs range from 0 to 431, reflecting the heterogeneity of the population. Most patients had a baseline ABR of greater than or equal to 12, which is consistent with the high bleed population we are evaluating in Phase III. In this study, VGA039 demonstrated a substantial median annualized bleed rate reduction of 81% across all participants, including those with no prior IV prophylaxis and switch patients. The depth of the response was also significant. 2/3 of patients with a non-0 baseline achieved at least a 75% reduction with 1/4 of them achieving 0 qualifying ABR during the multi-dose treatment period.
Notably, activity was observed across all von Willebrand disease subtypes and bleeding manifestations, consistent with the hypothesis that enhancing thrombin generation downstream of the underlying VWF defect may provide benefit across the heterogeneous VWD population. In precedent clinical trials with other investigational therapies across bleeding disorders, including VWD, ABR reductions from early studies like VIVID-3 were highly concordant with registrational study results. The safety and tolerability profile to date is also encouraging. VGA039 was well tolerated in VIVID-3 with no withdrawals on therapy and no thromboembolic events reported.
Taken together, this data support the potential of VGA039 as a novel once-monthly subcutaneous prophylactic therapy for patients with von Willebrand disease and were the basis for FDA granting breakthrough therapy designation. We have regulatory alignment on the registrational program for VGA039. And the Phase III study is designed as an open-label intra-patient comparison study with a 6-month observational baseline period followed by 12 months of active prophylaxis. Patients will receive monthly subcutaneous VGA039 using a weight banded flat dosing. The primary endpoint improvement in total ABR, including both treated and untreated bleeds comparing each patient's active treatment period against that patient's own observational baseline.
The study is expected to enroll approximately 60 patients and is on track to deliver top line data in early 2029, supporting a potential launch shortly thereafter. As Bill mentioned, our conviction is supported by the convergence of mechanism, pharmacodynamic evidence, early clinical activity and a Phase III design aligned with both the biology of the disease and the needs of the patient population.
I will now turn it over to Dave, who will discuss the commercial opportunity for VGA039 and why this asset is a strategic fit for Incyte. Dave?
Thanks, Pablo. VGA039 checks all the boxes when we think about our business development strategy at Incyte. It is highly adjacent to our core hematology franchise, leveraging existing commercial and R&D capabilities. It has established human proof of concept and is in Phase III with the potential to launch in the peri-LoE time frame for Jakafi. And the commercial opportunity is needle moving in magnitude for Incyte with blockbuster potential. But most importantly, this represents a novel step change for patients who have yet to experience the exciting innovation that has been brought to other bleeding disorders.
Let me start with the last point, which is how impactful VGA039 could be for von Willebrand disease patients from a practical perspective. Today, the prophylaxis options available for von Willebrand are primarily IV factor replacement therapies. These products can reduce bleeding, but they require frequent infusions, often 2 to 3 times per week. This burden is a major reason prophylaxis remains underutilized even among patients with severe and frequent bleeds where benefit risk favors bleed prevention. VGA039 has the potential to change that paradigm.
On the left of the slide, you can see that the current prophylaxis model requires frequent IV infusions with replacement therapy. Patients have to make a choice, deal with frequent infusions or treat acute bleeds as they happen. In many cases, patients will need both. On the right side is the proposed VGA039 regimen, a once-monthly subcutaneous injection. This difference matters. In hemophilia, we've seen that effective subcutaneous prophylaxis can transform treatment patterns and patient expectations. We believe a similar dynamic could be in play in the high unmet need segment of VWD.
Our commercial focus for VGA039 is not on the entire diagnosed population of 135,000 in the U.S., but rather a focused defined population within von Willebrand disease who experienced severe or frequent bleeding. As Pablo mentioned earlier, today, roughly 35,000 patients are treated in HTCs and other specialty settings. At least 7,000 to 10,000 of them have severe frequent bleeding and are eligible for prophylaxis today. This is our initial target market. Due to the limitations of the current options, only around 2,000 of them are on prophylaxis or prophylaxis-like regimens today. Our target population is not the average von Willebrand disease patient. It is a high burden segment characterized by recurrent GI bleeding, clinically significant mucosal bleeding, joint or muscle bleeds and other patterns.
In severe von Willebrand disease, annual bleeding rates can be very high, in some cases, reaching 30 or more events per year. From a market development standpoint, we believe VGA039 will do 2 things. First, it will convert patients currently receiving IV prophylaxis to a less burdensome monthly subcutaneous option. Second, it will expand the prophylaxis eligible treated population by making prophylaxis more practical for patients and physicians who today may avoid regular IV therapy because of administrative burden. We have seen in hemophilia A that when prophylaxis becomes more practical, adoption can become the norm with rates approaching 90% versus only 25% in severe or recurrent von Willebrand disease today.
There is a real opportunity to close the gap between those who need prophylaxis and those who are receiving it. Our pricing assumptions are anchored to existing prophylactic regimens and supported by the severity of disease in this target population. Severe von Willebrand disease is associated with meaningful health care utilization, including iron replacement, transfusions, emergency visits, hospitalizations and ambulatory care, which supports the health economic rationale for more effective and convenient prophylaxis.
Finally, Incyte is well positioned to launch VGA039 successfully given our deep hematology expertise and established commercial infrastructure. In short, VGA039 gives us a late-stage hematology opportunity with a differentiated mechanism, a practical monthly subcutaneous profile and the potential to meaningfully improve care for a clearly defined high-need von Willebrand population. Taken together, we believe these attributes support both the potential to establish a new standard of care and a significant blockbuster peak sales opportunity.
Back to Bill.
Thanks, Dave. Ultimately, this transaction reflects how we think about business development at Incyte. We're focused on opportunities that can create asymmetric outcomes where the upside materially outweighs the downside. We structured the deal with a combination of upfront consideration of $1.25 billion and up to $750 million in sales milestones, which aligns economics with value creation, preserves balance sheet flexibility and supports the potential for a strong return on invested capital. Just as importantly, we do not view this as incremental innovation. Based on the data generated to date, we believe this asset has the potential to establish a new standard of care. Opportunities like that are rare, and they create a fundamentally different value proposition than assets that simply offer modest improvements over existing therapies.
Before we move to Q&A, I want to recognize the work of Star Therapeutics. They've built a differentiated program in an area of real need, and we are excited to carry that work forward with their team. Our focus now is on ensuring smooth integration and executing the Phase III study.
With that, operator, please open the line for questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from Salveen Richter from Goldman Sachs.
2. Question Answer
This is Lydia on for Salveen. Could you just speak to strategically the timing of the deal? And then also any risk related to the VGA039's mechanism, particularly around thromboembolic events.
Sure. As it relates to the timing of the deal, I don't think we tie BD to a calendar. We have 2 sources of developing our product line, internal R&D and then external BD. And we looked at this opportunity, it was highly differentiated. The timing was right in terms of what we're solving for post '29. We have a Phase III ready asset, and we looked at the risk-adjusted returns on this, and we were ready to act. I think that this is probably as close to a textbook example of the type of deal that makes sense for a company like Incyte. And we also still have balance sheet flexibility if we see other deals. And we're patient right now. If we see something that makes sense, we'll do it. If not, we'll wait. Thank you.
Okay. So let me take the second part of the question. So we believe the risk here is very low. Let me tell you why. We -- number one, we reviewed it with more than 60 patients' worth of data and we reviewed all the data from the open-label expansion study, there were no relevant treatment-emergent adverse events of thrombosis. Furthermore, we saw no evidence of clinically relevant D-dimer elevations in any of these patients. And we think that's for a couple of really important reasons.
Number one, the dosing of VGA039 and the dosing strategy that the Star team put in place was a PD-driven, pharmacodynamic-driven dose selection. By measuring the amount of thrombin generation, we know that if the exposures to 039, the concentrations are between 25 and 100 micrograms per ml, there is normalization of thrombin generation. And that is the key word here is normalization of thrombin generation without overshooting thrombin generation. By doing that, we think the risk of clinically relevant thrombotic events are very, very low, and we were comfortable as we reviewed all the data that I described.
Our next question is coming from Etzer Darout from Barclays.
Congrats on the deal. Just a couple of -- just one question really on the blockbuster potential for VGA039, particularly around pricing. I think about once-monthly prophylactic product like Takhzyro for hereditary angioedema. Is that the right way to look at that from a pricing standpoint? And any color you can provide on how you can get to the $1 billion peak potential, that would be great.
Thanks for the question. I'll turn it over to Dave.
Sure. Thanks for the question. So if you look at not only VWD prophylaxis regimens, but prophylaxis across bleeding diseases, you come up with price points in the $500,000 all the way to upwards of $1 million a year. I would say that we're not banking on the upper end of that, but I would think about a net price point in that kind of $500,000 per year range is how to think about it.
Yes. What I would just add, Etzer, is think about what David talked about during his prepared remarks, if you have a hemophilia A-like segment of von Willebrands, meaning severe frequent bleeders. And we looked at claims data, we looked at the literature. We surveyed a very high percentage of the hemophilia treatment centers in the United States. You have 7,000 to 10,000 people. If you use annual cost of therapy of $500,000, the lower end of the range, you're looking at a market between $3.5 billion and $5 billion. That doesn't assume that you achieve, for example, what has been achieved in the hemophilia A market where prophylaxis has garnered 90% of the population. So there's a credible path here to a product that can move the needle at Incyte and generate north of $1 billion.
Our next question today is coming from Derek Archila from Wells Fargo.
This is Jacob on for Derek. So just from your diligence process, how are you thinking about this approach targeting protein S compared to others aimed at stabilizing VWF.
Pablo, go ahead.
So first of all, this is a completely different mechanism. The mechanism of modulating protein S, which is such a key element in the coagulation cascade, we think it's highly differentiated and uniquely suited for the most severe forms of von Willebrand disease. Now because it normalizes thrombin generation regardless of clotting factor levels, potentially it could work across other indications. But we believe it's uniquely suited for the group of patients that are more in need of better prophylaxis, and that's type 3 and a lot of type 2 von Willebrand disease patients. I think other approaches that have been recently advanced are very different because they're more focused on stabilizing and elevating existing levels of von Willebrand factor, which would not solve the problem of patients with type 3 and many type 2 von Willebrand disease. So as we looked at this, we think the highly differentiated nature, the fact that it's likely to address and it does in the work that we reviewed, the needs of the most severe patients with VWD, we thought that was a very differentiated approach.
Our next question today is coming from Ash Verma from UBS.
Congrats on the deal. Maybe just in terms of like the Phase III focus here, is this on the high bleeders with no prior IV prophylaxis. And I see that like in this data, it shows that you also generated 75% to 100% reduction in patients who switched from prior prophylaxis treatment. So is that a market segment that you want to follow up at a later point of time? Just help us understand like what are the different pieces of the market and how you want to pursue them.
That's most definitely a group of patients we will address as well. We have very early data in some of those patients already from the MAD study that we reviewed. They're not included in the current pivotal trial, but will be absolutely a focus of a future pivotal trial. It's a very important group of the population, and we intend to address their need.
Thanks for the question.
Our next question today is coming from Evan Seigerman from BMO Capital Markets.
So Bill, in the past, a multiplier in how you think about the world in terms of -- to acquire. Aside from indication -- aside from expansion beyond just VWD and kind of other bleeding indications, how else could this be a multiplier? And what else might you be looking for in a next asset beyond this company?
Well, I think as it relates to VGA039 being a multiplier, I think Incyte is at a size right now where if we have a credible path to $1 billion or $2 billion, that is a real needle mover. I mean we're not a giant diversified company where you need $2.5 billion to $5 billion in peak sales potential for a product to be highly material. And we're going to get a lot of leverage out of this business because we have all of the infrastructure we need in R&D and commercially. And as I said, I think this is about as close to a textbook type deal that we could do. It really checks all the boxes.
As it relates to other things that we're going to do, you know our 3 areas, Evan. We have hematology, oncology and immunology. And I don't think it's going to be the case that we replace Jakafi with one big swing. I think often those types of deals, whether it's a large company or a small company, can often destroy value. And we're not trying to meet a deal quota. We're not trying to count the number of deals we're doing. We're looking for things like this, which I think are differentiated. It's got an acceptable risk-reward profile, and it's right in our core. And if we see those things in those areas, we'll act. And if we don't, we're going to be patient. Thanks for the question.
Our next question today is coming from Michael Schmidt from Guggenheim Partners.
This is Rosy on for Michael. Congrats on the deal. So on the patient population, you've called out roughly 5,000 to 8,000 patients who have recurrent bleeds but aren't currently on prophylaxis. I guess what do we know about why those patients are on treatment today? And what kind of market share do you expect VGA039 to capture in that subgroup specifically? I guess if I may add another question, how do you think about the relative size of the U.S. versus ex U.S. opportunity here?
Thanks for the question. I'll turn it over to Dave.
Yes. Thanks for the question. So in terms of penetrating the population who have severe frequent bleeding, but are not currently on a prophylactic or prophylaxis-like regimen, I think that's the gist of the first question. When we surveyed physicians and spoke to dozens of KOLs about this, the indication is that it's multiples of that initial 2,000. So if you ask physicians, they would say it might get up to 4 to 5x. So when we define the population in the way that we did of severe current frequent bleeders, we expect high penetration in that subset. I think that all you need to do really is take that 2,000 and double it to have a really, really meaningful $1 billion to $2 billion opportunity for us.
The physicians are telling us it would be more like 4 to 5x. So I think we're in relatively good shape there. In terms of how to think about the U.S. versus ex U.S., we've modeled the ex U.S. as a relative minority in the total peak sales opportunity. If you look at other examples such as HEMLIBRA and other bleeding diseases, the ex U.S. can be a very, very meaningful portion of the total sales. So I think if anything, we might be being conservative on the ex U.S. front, but we absolutely anticipate this being a global launch.
And Rosy, I would just add, if you think about how you segmented the market, there's 2,000 people taking prophy, which is with replacement therapy, and it's multiple times a week. VGA039 gets approved, there's a high likelihood that the majority of those 2,000 patients could be put on VGA039. Right there starts at roughly $1 billion. And then there's the expansion of the prophy market. And as Dave said in his prepared remarks, it's only 25,000 of that severe frequent bleeding, 25% of that frequent severe bleeding subset. In hemophilia A, different disease, more serious, it's 90%. If we get prophy utilization up to 45% of that overall segment, you're talking about 3,000 to 4,500 patients. And so that is going to be a sizable opportunity for us. Thank you.
Our next question today is coming from Jessica Fye from JPMorgan.
Maybe following up on kind of the theme of a couple of the other ones. So of the 7,000 to, I think, 10,000 U.S. patients eligible for prophylaxis today, would all of those patients who are not currently on infusions meet the enrollment criteria for the VIVID-6 Phase III trial? Or can you tell us kind of what proportion would? And then recognizing the differentiated dosing frequency here, what's the primary comparator or benchmark you're going to hold your Phase III data up against when it reads out.
So let me take the first part of the question, and then I think Dave and Bill may want to comment. So the eligibility, as I mentioned, is ABR of 12 or greater. So patients are going to be followed for 6 months. They have to capture the bleeding episodes. If the ABR is 12 or greater, that's what they need to move to the prophylaxis phase of the study. Each patient is his or her own control here, Jess. There's no comparison with other approaches since there's nothing similar to this. Obviously, von Willebrand disease patients that they are managed with conventional prophylaxis, which is basically factor replacement therapy.
And as Dave reviewed, this is very onerous for patients. The rates of reduction that we've seen were over 80% in terms of ABR reduction in the clinical data that we reviewed even in the open-label expansion. And a lot of the patients, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, had ABRs of basically 0 once they were switched to VGA039. So that profile that I just described and the statistical design are fully aligned with the FDA. So we're comfortable with the design of the study, and we're very comfortable based on the review of the open-label extension data that we had.
Dave, do you want to add?
So yes, I think it's a good question, Jess. In order to isolate the treatment effect and measure the magnitude of bleed reduction, you're right, not all 7,000 to 10,000 would qualify for the Phase III protocol to state that clearly. In terms of who we would compare to, there's, as you know, a handful of approved agents in VWD. We know that they all have impressive bleeding reductions. We think those are one relevant benchmark. The feedback we get is that because these are relatively small studies and estimates can move around with just individual patients that -- it's key to show that you reduce bleeding by more than 50%. It's key to hit the primary endpoint. By the way, it's designed with the agency. And after that, we think the profile will win.
Thanks, Dave. Thanks, Jess.
Our next question today is coming from Eric Schmidt from Cantor Fitzgerald.
This is Imogen on for Eric. Congratulations on the deal. I guess a question on recruitment. So the time lines here. Given the relatively small size of the study and a fairly small number of sites open, do you see potential to accelerate the early '29 time line now that it's in Incyte's hands?
Yes, Imogen, thank you for the question. A couple of comments on that. The first part is we need to remind you the design of the study. So when a patient is enrolled, they first have to be followed for 6 months in order to capture the ABR, then they get started on therapy. The treatment is a year in order to be able to assess the ABR reduction in those patients. So immediately from -- when the last patient is enrolled, you have an 18-month period that you have to wait. The Star team has done a fantastic job implementing the study.
We reviewed the screening logs and enrollment and the site opening schedule. Obviously, we bring to bear a larger organization with a much larger footprint, and we'll do everything we can to accelerate the enrollment in the trial. And there might be ways to do that. We'll provide further guidance as we transfer all the obligations to Incyte, but we'll obviously try to accelerate the enrollment of the study. But I just want to remind everyone, there's that 18-month period that patients had to be followed for 6 months for the baseline ABR and then 1 year of therapy to capture the reduction in bleeds.
Thanks for the question, Imogen.
Our next question today is coming from Matt Phipps from William Blair.
Congrats on this deal. I think it fits nicely. Just wanted to quickly ask, I know the trial excludes patients with low -- very low levels of Factor VIII. How many does that -- how many patients might have that exclusion criteria? And then just confirming that the same weight banded dosing is going to be used in the Phase III trial that was shown the PK in the ASH presentation.
Matt, thanks for the question. Yes, the answer to the weight banded dosing is yes. The same dosing that we used in earlier trials that was implemented in earlier trials and that were used in the open-label extension will be used in the Phase III trial. There's 3 doses, 225, 300 and 450 depending on the weight of the patient.
On the Factor VIII levels, Matt, just to clarify, we want to make sure patients don't have high Factor VIII levels. So we're limiting to patients needing to be at the lower limit of normal. If you look at the population, we did extensive work on this, the patients who fall into the category of severe frequent bleeders that we have defined as our target patient population, virtually all of them are going to have low Factor VIII levels.
Thanks, Matt.
Our next question today is coming from Jay Olson from Oppenheimer.
Congrats on the deal. Just to follow up on Bill's earlier comment. What's the level of interest you're seeing amongst patients and prescribers to move away from factor-based prophylaxis and switch to a more convenient and potentially more effective, safer option for prophylaxis like 039. And then also, if you could please comment on your appetite for moving into adjacent bleeding disorders like hemophilia.
Great. Go ahead, Dave.
Sure. Thanks, Jay. So the physician interest is incredibly high in this. I'd say it starts with a discussion around how patients on IV prophylaxis would prefer a simple monthly subcutaneous option. But very quickly, it goes to how much this can expand the population. I think a lot of patients really consider going on prophylaxis, but opt against it because of the onerous profile. Most of the physicians we spoke to commented that patients, including those in the VIVID-3 program who had opted out of getting IV prophylaxis didn't actually realize how bad their disease was until they had experienced some relief. So I think we'll just -- if we produce the product profile that we're looking for, the interest in this will be incredibly high, both in the current population on prophylaxis and beyond it.
Pablo, do you want to take the second question?
I'll be happy to. Thanks for the question, Jay. So theoretically, let me take a step back. So VGA039 increases thrombin generation regardless of clotting factor levels. So mechanistically, there's no reason why it could not work in other bleeding disorders as well. The Star team, and we agree with their approach, addressed von Willebrand disease first because there is a bigger need as we've been discussing during the call, particularly in patients with severe von Willebrand disease for better, more effective prophylaxis. So that approach is something we fully agree with, and we're going to drive this forward as fast as possible.
They have presented, the Star team, preclinical data in other bleeding disorders, and we'll have conversations internally and then with key opinion leaders about initiating potential trials in other potential bleeding disorders. But mechanistically, VGA039 should work regardless of the bleeding disorders we're talking about because what it does is it normalizes thrombin generation regardless of clotting factor levels.
Thanks for the question, Jay.
Our next question today is coming from Judah Frommer from Morgan Stanley.
Congrats on the deal. Maybe just first, can you give us a little more detail on overlap in call sites for your hem/onc sales force and kind of hematologists treating these bleeding disorders? And then just assuming this will be a chronically dosed antibody, any evidence of any drug antibodies or neutralizing antibodies that you've seen thus far?
Great. Thanks for the question, Judah. As it relates to the market or the target audience, you're talking about roughly 150 hemophilia treatment centers. In fact, the program here is going to look very similar in size and shape to what we're already doing at bone marrow transplant centers all across the country, where there's roughly the same number. And so we have a pretty good sense of what it will take to commercialize this product.
Let me take the second part of the question. We have not seen any evidence of ADAs in the ongoing open-label extension trial or any of the trials for that matter.
Thanks for the question.
Our next question today is coming from Kripa Devarakonda from Truist.
Congratulations on the deal. So from the data that you've seen so far, do you have a good sense of what the average duration of treatment could be, especially when we think about the real-world use of the drug. And what's your level of confidence that this could be a chronic therapy? And how does that play into your estimate of the peak opportunity.
Dave will start off and then Pablo will add.
Thanks, Kripa. So between VIVID-3 and the open-label extension, we have not seen any evidence that patients won't take this chronically. And so we have yet to give you an estimate on duration of therapy, and that's good news because virtually everyone is ongoing, and we don't see any signs of -- any reasons for discontinuation.
Let me complete that. I don't see why a patient with severe von Willebrand disease that has ABRs over 12, which is enrollment criteria for this study, and some of these patients have 30, 40, 50, an ABR of 30, 40, 50 and that is receiving a once-a-month subcutaneous injection that is well tolerated and has no major side effects that we know at this point, why would that stop at any point in time. So I think what we're looking here is a chronic ongoing therapy, particularly for the patients with more severe von Willebrand disease.
Great. Thanks for the question, Kripa.
Our final question today is coming from Salim Syed from Mizuho Securities.
Congrats on the deal. Just one from us. Given that this is an open-label study, are you guys -- how are you guys handling the data internally? Is this something that you plan to sort of look at as you go and you'll have knowledge to that? Or is there some sort of blinded protocol even for you guys, even though it's open label? And related to that, if you wanted to change the protocol to build an interim, if you saw good data, is that something that you could do?
Thanks for the question. Pablo?
Yes. Thank you for the question. So the way we will handle, as you described, is an open-label study is the same way we handle other open-label studies, whether they're randomized or not. And there is a team within the company that is -- that basically monitors the study, but we are blinded to the ongoing results of the study. So this is treated with a level of regulatory rigor that it has to for a pivotal trial. So the answer is we will not have access to obviously the data as the study is ongoing.
When it comes to modifications to the protocol, I think it's a little bit too early to comment on that. We will obviously transfer all the obligations to Incyte. The process basically starts today to do that. And then we'll make decisions as you usually do in any pivotal trial, whether there's any need for interim analysis. Now very importantly, we have full alignment with FDA here on the design of the study. And so we would take any change. We will be very cautious about making any changes to the ongoing study or the statistical analysis plan because of the agreements we have with the FDA.
Thank you for the question.
We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's teleconference webcast. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.
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Incyte — Incyte Corporation, Vega Therapeutics, Inc. - M&A Call
Incyte — Incyte Corporation, Vega Therapeutics, Inc. - M&A Call
Incyte übernimmt das VGA039‑Programm (anti‑Protein‑S) von Star Therapeutics; Phase‑III läuft, $1,25 Mrd. upfront plus bis zu $750 Mio. an Meilensteinen.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
Incyte erwirbt VGA039, einen ersten klinischen Kandidaten zur Prophylaxe der von‑Willebrand‑Erkrankung (VWD). Das Asset passt zur Hämatologie‑Strategie, zeigt starke frühe Wirksamkeit (medianer Rückgang der annualisierten Blutungsrate) und hat Breakthrough‑Designation; Incyte sieht es als möglichen >$1 Mrd. Wachstumstreiber nach 2029.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Mechanismus: VGA039 ist ein monoklonaler Anti‑Protein‑S‑Antikörper, der die Thrombin‑Generation normalisiert, unabhängig vom vorliegenden VWF‑Defekt.
- Klinische Daten: In VIVID‑3 zeigte VGA039 eine mediane ABR‑Reduktion von ~81%; 2/3 der nicht‑Null‑Patienten ≥75% Reduktion, ~25% erzielten 0 ABR.
- Kommerz: Zielmarkt initial 7.000–10.000 schwere/frequente Bluter in den USA; Incyte peilt Netto‑Preisannahmen um $500k/Jahr und >$1 Mrd. Peak‑Sales an.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Transaktion: $1,25 Mrd. upfront + bis zu $750 Mio. in Umsatzzielen; Struktur soll Bilanzflexibilität bewahren.
- Phase‑III: offenes intra‑patient‑Vergleichsdesign, ~60 Patienten, 6 Monate Beobachtungsbaseline + 12 Monate Behandlung, Topline‑Readout Anfang 2029.
- Regulatorisch: Breakthrough‑Designation der FDA; Studien‑Design bereits mit der Behörde abgestimmt.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Thromboserisiko: Management betont PD‑gesteuerte Dosiswahl und keine TEE (thromboembolische Ereignisse) oder D‑Dimer‑Signale in ~60 Patienten, verbleibende Unsicherheit bis Phase‑III.
- Preis & Markt: Annahme ~ $500k/Jahr; Basis für >$1 Mrd. Peak: Konversion der ~2.000 derzeitigen Prophylaxepatienten plus Marktausweitung.
- Studienlaufzeit & Datenzugang: 18 Monate/Pateint (6+12), Rekrutierung kann Incyte‑seitig beschleunigt werden, aber interne Teams sind für laufende Daten blind; Protokolländerungen wären vorsichtig wegen FDA‑Abstimmung.
⚡ Bottom Line
Für Aktionäre bedeutet die Akquisition eine gezielte Diversifikation weg von einem Cornerstone‑Produkt hin zu mehreren Wachstumsoptionen. VGA039 bietet echtes Blockbuster‑Upside bei überschaubarem klinischem Risiko laut bisherigen Daten; die Bewertung ist substantiell, der Erfolg hängt aber von der Phase‑III‑Bestätigung (Wirksamkeit, Sicherheit, Marktdurchdringung) und der Rekrutierung ab.
Incyte — RBC Capital Markets Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
[Audio Gap] featured company Incyte, presented by their Chief Medical Officer, Steven Stein. So thanks so much for joining us, Steven.
Thanks for having me. It's good to be here.
So a lot to cover. So -- and I don't want to spend the whole time on 989 because I know you have just a few other things in your pipeline. But I do want to start there just because I know it's a topic of high interest, and there's a lot of recent data and developments of late. Maybe just on the 989 for ET you guys recently announced Phase III plans after speaking with the FDA, and that program is going to start midyear. Can you walk us through some of the unique elements in that design and in particular, the ability to shorten the typical registration requirements and the implications of having BAFF as a secondary endpoint here?
Yes. Thanks, Brian. I'll try to get to all your questions. So obviously, just in terms of stepping back for a second, if you look at the sort of company 3 verticals, there's hematology, solid tumor, oncology and then immunology. In the hematology vertical, if I can put it that way, obviously, myeloproliferative neoplasms are front and center. It's something that has been the DNA of the company since the beginning and something, in the correct way, we sort of want to own going forward. And the sort of research frame mindset there is mutation-specific therapies now.
So moving beyond more broad, sort of, JAK-STAT inhibition, even in terms of nuances there but really going to mutation-specific therapies. And the first one in that journey is the mutant CALR antibody 989. And to talk about specifically on ET on this question, I'm sure you'll come to MF next. But ET is where we went first with the antibody. It's about -- if you look at mutant CALR in that setting, it's about 25% of all of ET. It's a very clean environment to study it in because we have such a sensitive pharmacodynamic market in platelets. It just gives you a very quick clean read. And it's something we utilize to the meat of your question going forward with the FDA on the study design, and it really helped us.
I just want to also, in terms of stepping back, in the nearly 30 years I've been dealing with regulators and with the FDA, this is about the most collegial interactions I've ever had, and they're really interested in working with us and helping us. We have breakthrough designation as well. But I think the step back there is 16 years ago, we were the inventors of the endpoints here and certainly in myelofibrosis with SVR35 and symptoms, those were ruxolitinib driven and have remained the endpoints over the last 15-plus years. So there's a recognition from the FDA that this is a space we know well and can work well together.
So with the 989 antibody in ET, we'll have an update at EHA. At ASH, we had approximately, I think, 50 patients of data and 35 of those had 24 weeks follow-up. At this EHA update, it's quite substantive. There are 110 patients and about 60 of those have doses greater than 750. So it's a really substantive data set. And if you look deeper into that data set, and you're not looking at doses per se but for the type 1 mutation, there's about a 92% complete hematologic response rate in the abstract. And then for the non-type 1s, it's in the 30% to 40% range, which is something we knew straight off.
So it comes to your question, what happened with the study design. The principle we wanted to get to was to make a very user-friendly study for physicians and patients. So we wanted an all-comer study, and we wanted to try encompass both type 1s, which are uniquely sensitive but non-type 1s in the same study and then use a dose schema that could be rapidly titrated. So what we did and worked with the FDA to get to is it's an all-comer. So sites don't have to worry about whether they're type 1, type 2, non-type 1, type 1 like, it's quite a complicated arena. We put everybody on. We'll do the mutation-specific testing, obviously, and the stratifications there. Everybody starts at 750 milligrams. It's those control rates I talked about in type 1.
And then at cycle 2, day 1, day 29, if they haven't hit the 400 or below threshold, they immediately dose escalated to 2,500. So we expect all the -- just about all type 1s will be okay at 750. And then for the non-type 1s, a great proportion will need that dose escalation. And then it's -- the other -- so that was a great achievement. It's very user-friendly. It's easy to operationalize.
The second thing was we get control very quickly. So we managed to convince the FDA that we don't have to wait what is standard with other sponsors 52 weeks. We can actually measure the endpoint at 24 weeks. So it's complete hematologic control for at least 12 weeks. So you have to then -- if you think that through, you have to have control by 12 weeks to get to 24 weeks. And then -- so platelets below 400, white cells below 11,000, no thrombosis, no bleeding. So we're confident in that design. We like the setup. It's second-line ET versus BAT arm, which we estimate will be HYDREA, anagrelide and interferons and actually quite a decent proportion, we think will be retreated with Hydrea. In certain parts of the world, interferon use is increasing as well. So we like the setup, it's a good study, and it's literally about to start.
Excellent. And I guess where do you stand with the regulatory alignment in MF? I know there's maybe some principles from ET that can apply but there's obviously not as readily available a rapid biomarker for response. So maybe talk us through how you're thinking about the MF path forward in second line initially and what some of those discussions are entailing?
No, you're right. I mean you teed it up perfectly. It's a little bit of a different milieu, right? The -- we don't have a sensitive pharmacodynamic marker like platelets. Obviously, there's spleen control, there's symptom control, there's VAF reduction. I didn't answer your VAF question on ET. I'll come back to it. There's VAF reduction, but it's not as simple to titrate. So it's a little bit of a different construct. So at EHA, again, we have quite a substantive update. I think there will be about 80 patients of data at the meeting. A good proportion of those will have 24 weeks of follow-up in second-line MF, maybe 60-odd patients there. So -- and we're in the same territories on what are the standard responses in terms of SVR and symptoms. What we have with this drug that's unique is anemia response as well.
So in the abstract, you'll see a 58% anemia response rate, and that talks to disease modification aspects thereof. So our ongoing assumption for your question is that we'll be in the old world of SVR35 and symptoms. And in that respect, we're okay but it's not moving the field forward. What we'd like to do is have a healthy discussion with the FDA around a new endpoint in MF in terms of registration studies but it's actually been driven by the European Leukemia Network for nearly a decade. They published 3 times on what a composite endpoint could look like. And in fact, they make a very strong argument that if you do a composite on hemoglobin, on blast count, on platelets, on spleen, is actually more directly correlated with overall survival and leukemia-free survival than the old endpoints, SVR35 and symptoms. And that's been driven extraneous to insight by opinion leaders in the field. We'll see if we can get the FDA there.
Do you think the FDA is open to it?
I think they are. I think they want to try and move the field forward. They've realized that TSS50, particularly holding to that and trying to beat RUX on symptoms is proven very difficult even for us with some of the combos. So I think they are, and we'll hopefully have agreement sometime a little after the middle of the year and be able to tell you publicly on the third quarter call where we are. So that's the desire and where we want to be.
Control arms, next -- some of the...
The main interest in the field is exactly what you just said. People want to see it against JAKs. So it will probably be a BAT arm that incorporates ruxolitinib, fedratinib, momelotinib, pacritinib, maybe even HYDREA and danazol, lenalidomide, et cetera. But that will be the control arm in second-line MF. It will also be IV. So beyond the endpoint, the next thing to agree on is dose. And this is also tricky here because we don't have that PD marker. One of 2 things maybe, one is we just go with a higher dose across the board if we do an all-comer study, come to an agreement based on our modeling, we'll have extensive modeling on what a higher dose could look like or potentially in this area, do a dose by mutation. So have a dose for type 1 and a dose for non-type 1.
And so we'll have a test that can turn that around pretty quickly and be able to do that. That will be the meat of the discussion, what the best way to do that study is in terms of the dosing paradigm. Again, we'll communicate that when we have it.
Just on the VAF endpoint in ET because you asked earlier, it was the FDA who brought it up. They said, why this is disease-modifying, why don't you put it in and we have. We have pretty good data we'll show at EHA on correlating 25% or greater VAF reductions with heme response. So there's some validation going on already. So the same thing in myelofibrosis, if we get to a composite endpoint that has sort of blasts, platelets, hemoglobin, spleen control, we may have a molecular endpoint there as well to show. So that's where we'd like to be with currently.
You mentioned EHA a couple of times, and you alluded to the additional data we're going to see there, and we saw some additional data in the abstract, which looks very much aligned with what you've presented before. Anything more that we should be looking at -- looking for at EHA across the MF and ET program that you think play out? And maybe also, there's been some competitive updates as well coming out of the EHA abstract. So I'm just curious if you have any views on that.
Sure. So just very quickly, we were 3 presentations at EHA, MF oral, ET poster, translational poster is really important, has single cell sequencing data on megakaryocytes on peripheral blood mononucleosides or marrow fibrosis. So I would look at that because it talks to the disease MOA. There's also about 20 patients worth of JAK ineligible patients in that abstract. And then at the meeting, I think about 15 of those 20 have 6 months of follow-up. So you get some sense of what a first-line population looks like, although the first-line data will present at the end of the year. So that will be interesting as well.
In terms of competitors, we've seen the Ajax' abstract looks really good in terms of SVR and symptoms. What we're interested selfishly on what does it look like in the mutation-specific population, particularly mutant CALR. We know across the board, our own data and the very small public data set that JAKs don't do well in mutant CALR. They're not as active. So we'll see what Ajax does there. And we want to look at the AE profile because we know if we use high-dose RUX, for example, we could achieve very similar SVR and symptom control but you would run into quite significant anemia. So we want to just look at that profile there.
Just to be clear, we're in a different mind frame. We really think about mutation-specific therapies as the way forward, which is why we're not in that space currently. Our own V617F is sort of struggling along with the formulation. We switched to an ASD now. Hopefully, we'll get better exposure and be able to hit IC35. We have next-gen backups, and we have a prelude option deal on their lead and their backup. So this is a space we're also extremely interested in 617F specific therapies. It really opens up p-VERA extensively. So the Ajax data set we'll look at. We're not sure if J&J is going to have an abstract or not on their bispecific. We have a bispecific in the clinic as well. And then there's some earlier efforts on siRNA in the space and vaccines, but I think they're a bit too early to speak about.
Got it. I know you're starting with IV but you've made a lot of progress towards a subcu formulation. And you recently reported that this was -- you had some success in healthy volunteers. So can you just help us envision what sort of -- what are you seeing? What kind of profile will constitute -- would constitute success here? And are you doing any additional formulation work? Is there sort of a concentration goal that you have here with the -- I know you have the device that could enable at-home delivery of the subcu. I guess how are you thinking about putting all the pieces together in terms of concentration, dose level, any reformulation and what you guys are seeing so far that gets you as encouraged as you are?
Yes. No, I think you hit the main points, Brian. The subcu is really important from a patient perspective, right? In ET, particularly people are generally well, don't necessarily want to go to clinics or even infusion centers for years on end. So ultimately, getting to a subcu there is really key to our strategy and plan. We started in healthy volunteers to get bioavailability data. We completed that. We like what we've seen from a BA perspective, and we're currently going into patients now to sort of do the same thing, get more bioavailability data, et cetera. We know from the get-go, just to be clear, that we're not going to be able to encompass these doses in pens.
So we went in with the device very early. We've got this partnership with an FDA-approved device, enFuse, that can hold up to 25 ml. The amount you have in dictates how long that takes to infuse. So low amounts, 10 minutes, high amounts, 20 minutes to get it in, you take it off and dispose of it. You're right, there are 2 aspects. There's bioavailability. If you want to ballpark bioavailability, IV to subcu, people generally want in the 40% to 60% range. And so we're happy where we are without telling you what the exact number is.
But the next aspect is concentration. So you have a certain amount of milligrams per ml. And if you do those 2 calculations, you want to be able to encompass your top dose in a single device. We're comfortable we'll get to where we want in a single device but it will be towards the top end of the 25 ml, right, for you. And so we knew that going in.
If you look competitively now, and we're taking at face value what Damora said, obviously, I think the IND is about to go in. They're talking about more potency for non-type 1 and then in nonhuman primates, a 15-day half-life. So it could be a Q4 week subcu. So our next gen are thinking about that as well. So that's a good desirable profile to get to. potentially, I'm not sure they know their dose or bioavailability. It's too early, but you could start thinking about can you then encompass those in an easier-to-use Penn type formulation.
The second-line ET registration studies is IV to start, should get across the finish line and launch in '29. We have an agreement with the FDA to do bridging work. We should have a subcu available within 6 months of that launch. Second-line MF is likely to be IV as well given the timing because we want to go fast. But our first-line MF study, we want to do with the subcu from the get-go.
Great. That's super helpful. I promised I wouldn't spend the whole time on 989. So maybe we'll shift gears, but maybe stay on myeloproliferative neoplasms initially before we move to I&I. You alluded to your own V617F. You have this new ASD formulation. Can you just give us a sense of like how that's going so far in the clinic and maybe what the key signals you're going to be looking for out of that in the back half of this year to make a go/no-go decision on that asset versus moving with some of your next-gen or with Prelude?
Yes. No, I mean, firstly, again, it's incredibly important to us. So 617F opens up the rest of MF, particularly but all of p-VERA. And again, mutation-specific approaches are key. It's been frustrating. We knew we didn't have the optimal formulation. We've pushed it in the clinic. We can't get sufficient exposures to hit the target hard enough. We've just switched to ASD and we're testing that now. This year, though, if we present data at the end of the year, it will be on the old formulation. So it will be more like a '27 data set. If this doesn't get there because the target is so important to us, as you alluded to, we have next-gen and we have the Prelude option deal, which is still open, I think it was 15 months when it was signed. The IND is in there on the lead. They have backups as well. So this is not a target we want to miss out on. It's key to us. I don't know if our lead is going to be able to give us what we need. We'll see.
That's good. It sounds like you have a lot of different clinical options. And then you recently launched or in the process of launching Jakafi XR. I guess can you give us any flavor of just what the early days are looking like in terms of receptivity, any surprises in the way it's being used? And then just how are you thinking about what would get you to that kind of upper end of the, I think, 15% to 30% patient conversion range that you and have talked about.
Basically principle. So I have PTSD from this. We got a CRL, but now we all celebrately, we got across the finish line. It was not easy. But we're there, and we've launched, as you said. We priced it at parity to IR. So that's important. There's no issue for payers in that respect. The key is formulary coverage, trying to get upwards of 50% to 70% coverage as quickly as possible. This year's contribution will be modest, I don't know, $10 million, $20 million type thing. Next year will be the first full year with adequate formulary coverage, and we hope to see a year of potentially like $100 million in sales.
And then upwards of somewhere in that analog of the 10% to 30% range, you want to use 20% as a number we're using, which in 31 months, that's what we have left until the end of the LOE is going to be a lot of hard work to get there, right? If we achieve that, we then potentially have it through the early 2030s, maybe up to 2034. Bill has been talking about numbers. If you take that 20% of where we are on our top line, we could have somewhere around $500 million to $700 million product from RUX XR, and that would really help us to bridge that trough period. As Bill says, and he's right, if the company is trading on RUX XR at that time period, we've got a lot of things wrong, right? So we have to be beyond that at that point.
Yes. But even a modest piece of [ that ] is still a meaningful bridge.
Yes.
Shifting gears to, I guess, on oncology, hem-onc, you guys recently reported positive Phase III data for tafasitamab in first-line DLBCL back earlier this year. How are you guys thinking about the opportunity for the drug in that setting and the key differentiating features versus standard of care? And what should investors be focusing on for your upcoming ASCO presentation?
Right. So a quick advertisement. It's a plenary oral at ASCO on Saturday. It's a plenary oral at EHA like a week later. So obviously, the academic community is interested. It's a second positive study in first-line diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in 25 years. Hazard ratio reported in January 0.75, p-value 0.019. Different from the POLARx study in that it's a little bit of a worse population. So we're IPI 3 to 5, they were 2 to 5. We're about 30% ECOG 2 or above, they were 16%. So those are the major differentiators, 899 patients. It's a curative -- potentially curative population, really important data set. We'll show you at those presentations, all the other endpoints, event-free survival, et cetera.
Very important focus on, I guess, 2 things. One is cell of origin data. It's about 50% germinal center, 50% activated B cell. The POLARx data is good. It's on a $1 billion run rate, but it's used almost exclusively in ABC subtype because the germinal center hazards were basically one, that's in keeping with its MOA. We have good data in both data sets. So I think that's one differentiator in both cells of origin.
The other thing to look at, people are very focused on the 2-year PFS, EFS data because if you don't relapse within 2 years, you're usually cured of this condition. So we'll show you that 2-year split as well, and then we'll show you overall survival data as well. So really good for patients, really great to have a positive Phase III in this setting. Bill and the company have been conservative because of the entire market here. We know the bispecifics coming, et cetera. But we think this will add to what we already have in somewhere around the $300 million to $400 million sort of range. There are 30,000 patients every year with first-line diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in the U.S., 50% still get R-CHOP, probably the lower IPIs in the germinal centers. So there's clearly opportunity but we've been measured in how -- what we think the uptake will be.
Got it. And can you talk about your latest expectations for povo in HS and maybe just what the uptake curve there could look like, where it fits in and how potential competitor data later this year could shape that?
Yes. So I think we probably did that endpoint too early when we presented last February. I mean you can't change it once you declare a 12-week endpoint. The reason I say that is we saw the 54-week updates looking really good, right? The HiSCR rates are where biologics are. Pain control is probably the best in the class and beyond. Draining tunnel data is good. So the setup is really good. We think there are about 300,000 patients with HS, about 200,000 get treated if you want to add a branded, say, of 35,000 a year, you have a total addressable market that's upwards of between $7 billion, $8 billion.
There are 3 groups of treatment. There's conventional therapy, antibiotic steroids, there's TNF and then there's IL-17. We have data in both prebiologic and post. That's our desire in terms of getting the label in both. And we want to be potentially used in both Bill spoke about numbers on various calls of around $500 million here. We'll launch early next year. So we should have a full year in '27, and we want to be used in both settings, pre and post biologic. So that's the setup. The data looks good to support that. We don't think that's a hyperbolic number to achieve there. If you add vitiligo and then PN, the 3 indications and should we get them all, about $1 billion or north of $1 billion opportunity for povo for us.
And then lastly, where does Opzelura then fit in? And I know you recently expanded that study. Some of the doc feedback we've heard has been some intrigued just given the in elderly, in milder patients...
The anecdotal feedback is great. The study enrolled so, so well that adding 100 patients each study has made no difference on timeline. So we did that. But what we really wanted to do is control the placebo response rate. So there's no competitor in mild HS. We are the only ones going after it. It's abscess and nodules up to 10 and no draining tunnels. So there could be a significant placebo rate. So having a higher number could help there. So the driver was easy to do it to enroll in like gangbusters, control placebo response rate. Opportunity is another few hundred million on top of Opzelura. So important. And then again, will give us that topical to oral solution in HS, topical Opzelura for the mild, povo for the moderate plus.
Lots more we could cover. But unfortunately, we're out of time. So thanks so much.
Thanks for having us.
Really appreciate it. That was great.
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Incyte — RBC Capital Markets Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Incyte — RBC Capital Markets Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Incyte setzt auf 989 (mutantes CALR) als strategischen Schwerpunkt, startet ET‑Phase‑III mit verkürzter Endpoint‑Timing und arbeitet an Subkutanfassung.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: 989 (mutantes CALR) ist Top‑Priorität; Phase‑III in essentieller thrombocythemia (ET) startet Mitte Jahr mit einem nutzerfreundlichen All‑Comer‑Design und einem 24‑Wochen‑Hauptendpunkt, parallel laufen MF‑Programme, Subkutanausgabe und weitere Onkologie/Immunologie‑Assets.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Phase‑III‑Design: All‑comer‑Studie startet bei 750 mg, bei fehlender Kontrolle binnen Cycle‑2/Day‑29 Eskalation auf 2.500 mg; Control‑Arm: best available therapy (Hydrea, Anagrelide, Interferone).
- Endpoint‑Taktik: Registrierung auf 24 Wochen mit kompletter hämatologischer Kontrolle (Thrombozyten <400, Leukozyten <11.000, keine Thrombosen/Blutungen) statt traditioneller 52‑Wochen‑Messung.
- MF‑Strategie: Gespräche mit FDA über ein composites, krankheitsmodifizierendes Endpoint‑Konzept (Hämoglobin, Blast‑Anteil, Thrombozyten, Splenomegalie); Anämieantwort in MF ~58% signalisiert Disease‑Modifikation.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Klinische Daten: EHA‑Update: ET‑Kohorte auf ~110 Patienten (≈60 >750 mg); bei CALR Typ‑1 komplette hämatologische Ansprechrate ~92% im Abstract.
- Regulatorisch: FDA zeigte sich kooperativ; Einigung über 24‑Wochen‑Endpoint und mögliche Einbeziehung von VAF (Variant Allele Frequency) als molekularer Marker.
- Subkutane Entwicklung: Positive Bioavailabilitätssignale in Gesunden; enFuse‑Device (bis 25 ml) geplant; Subcu‑Brücke innerhalb ~6 Monaten nach IV‑Launch angestrebt.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- MF‑Endpunkt: Kritische Frage war, ob die FDA ein neues composites Endpoint akzeptiert; Management sieht Offenheit, erwartet Klarheit nach Mitte Jahr und Update am Q3‑Call.
- Subcu‑Risiken: Analysten fragten zu Bioverfügbarkeit und Konzentrationsziel; Antwort: gesunde Freiwillige zeigen gute BA, konkrete Zahlen nicht genannt, Gerät soll Top‑Dose in einem Applikator ermöglichen.
- V617F‑Programm: Nachfrage zum ASD‑Formulierungsupdate; Management testet neues amorphes System (ASD), entscheidet ggf. zwischen internem Next‑Gen oder Prelude‑Option bei unzureichender Exposition.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: 989 könnte Incytes MPN‑Franchise deutlich stärken: beschleunigtes ET‑Reglement und Subcu‑Option steigern Marktzugang, aber wichtige Risiken bleiben (Dosisfindung, MF‑Endpoint‑Akzeptanz, Konkurrenz). Wichtige Near‑Term‑Katalysatoren: EHA‑Daten, Start Phase‑III Mitte Jahr, ASCO/EHA‑Präsentationen (tafasitamab) sowie weitere Subcu/V617F‑Readouts.
Incyte — Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome back to the Bank of America Healthcare Conference. I'm Tazeen Ahmad. I'm one of the senior biotech analysts at the bank. It's my pleasure to have our next presenting company here, Incyte. Presenting for Incyte up here on stage with me is Bill Meury, who is, of course, President and CEO. Bill, thanks for making the trip out West to see us.
Thanks, Tazeen. It's good to be here.
So it's been quite the year of transformation for Incyte. So I thought maybe we usually start off by asking for an overview of the company, but I thought I would switch it up a little bit with you. And have you tell me what it's been like to be at Incyte since you became the new CEO a while back last year.
Yes. Thank you. It's a good question. It's been about a year. And I can tell you that I did a lot of diligence before coming in. I had an opportunity to speak with the members of the Board for an extensive period of time. And there have been nothing but good surprises so far. One of the reasons I joined is I thought that the core business as well as the pipeline was somewhat underappreciated. I think there's a lot of substrate and potential for meaningful product flow over the next several years. And that's just going to be important in terms of replacing Jakafi and going beyond Jakafi with multiple growth drivers.
Second, I was impressed with the R&D and commercial capabilities of the company. And I think the discovery group, there's a talented bunch of biologists and chemists and translational researchers, the development group. We have about 10 Phase III studies underway, and they know how to execute. Commercial team is wired into the markets that we're in. And then financially, the company is in a good position. Right now, we have strong revenue growth and cash flow and a growing balance sheet. We're squarely focused on Act 2 and just going beyond Jakafi. And since I've inherited a good business, I think the company has achieved most of its major milestones over the last 12 months. And I think the growth profile of Incyte post '29 is much clearer today than it was even a year ago.
Yes. And you've been very passionate about talking about that. So we'll go into some details. So maybe let's talk about the current commercial lineup, especially Jakafi. So I think it still manages to surprise people, the uptake that it gets every quarter, given that it's a very mature asset. We're actually approaching the LOE for it. Can you talk to us about what some of the drivers you've seen over the last year that allow it to keep bringing in new patients or circling patients back?
Yes, it is pretty remarkable. It's year 15 on the market. This quarter, as you know, sales were up about 7%, 6% of that was pure demand. We see broad-based growth across the 3 indications. So MF, PV and GVHD. MF and GVHD are low to mid-single-digit growing indications. PV is plus 10%. And by the end of '26, it will be the largest indication for Jakafi. It's a standard of care treatment. It's got a lot of support from prescribers, and it has excellent formulary coverage and you put those 2 things together and you have a sustainable growth story. And this year looks strong, and we expect the same for the next couple of years when we lead up to 2028.
Okay. So how should we be thinking about the switch rate to Jakafi XR? You recently got that approved. How important is this for life cycle management?
Yes, it's a good question. XR is a bridge for the company. And in terms of conversions, and there's models out there, as you well know -- analogs, you can look at. We estimate that we can convert, let's call it, 20% of Jakafi IR. So on a relative basis, you'd say that's modest. But in absolute terms, that could be $0.75 billion in sales. It's a once-a-day version of a standard of care. We know that with a chronic symptomatic condition, when you miss doses, there can be a loss of control.
When you go to a once-a-day formulation, the adherence rate is going to be 15% to 25% better than BID. The way I think about conversion right now: in 2026, think about measured early uptake with a step-up in conversion tied to access in '27. So '26 will be about formulary coverage. Conversion rates will be in the low to mid-single digits. And then in '27, that's when we expect to really accelerate the rate of conversion. And by the time you get to early '28, we'd like to see that number around 20%.
Okay. And is there a subgroup of patients that you think will be earlier in conversion?
There's definitely a subgroup of physicians, early adopters. We also believe that in the GVHD market where patients are on multiple therapies, a once-a-day version of Jakafi may be more favorable. And there are also certain channels where we believe conversion can be accelerated. And the program is being launched right now. In fact, our sales organization, both on the East Coast and the West Coast has launch meetings this week. Interactions with health plans have already started. And the key metric, and we'll be talking to you about this on each quarterly call, will be: what does the formulary coverage look like, how rapidly can we achieve it? And at that point, you can really start to drive conversion.
Okay. And then just in general, what is the sentiment at Incyte about the time it will take to get on to formulary coverage? Is there anything complicating about this that would make it longer than what you would think?
Yes, it's a good question. It's the right question. So we priced Jakafi XR purposely at parity to Jakafi IR. And that was to enable fast formulary coverage. And I would expect that in a 6- to 9-month period, we're approaching 50% or more formulary coverage. And we'll focus on the top PBMs and the top plans. And I would hope we've made some meaningful progress by the end of the year, which gives us just over 6 months of time.
Okay. So let's talk about Opzelura. It's received phenomenal reviews when we talk to physicians about it. And all the survey work indicates like the drug is really efficacious, so efficacious that the amount of drug that patients need seems to be much smaller than we thought. So is that a good thing?
Is that a good thing? I think it's a good thing that when a dermatologist thinks about a treatment for AD that it's topical, they know that Opzelura is superior to TCI and for long-term use is superior to a topical corticosteroids. Yes.
So for the -- I guess, the patients on the milder end of, let's say, AD, for example, do you think that you could make up for it with more patients over time as opposed to us all counting the number of tubes per patient, which seems to be lower than what initially was thought?
I do. If you -- the business between now and 2030 has the potential to grow at a 10% to 15% 5-year CAGR, which means globally, we expect Opzelura to do almost $780 million this year, and we're just under $800 million. By 2030, we expect that number to be about $1.3 billion. Right now, we know that the underlying growth in the U.S. for AD and vitiligo is very strong. And there's just 2 metrics that we looked at to get to your question. What is our share of new patient starts? That will be the measure of the health of any business in biopharma. We're at 46%. You also look at what are your new patient starts on a year-over-year basis. And so in the first quarter of '26, new to brand or new to patient starts for Opzelura were up 30%.
And so the fundamentals of the business are very strong, and I think it's because of what you said, it performs well. And we have 20,000 writers, and we have very good formulary coverage at this point. And so we just have to keep our foot on the gas and continue to drive the business organically. And then, of course, we would layer in the international launch of Opzelura for AD, which is in the second half of this year, and we may have an indication for HS. And those are the 3 components of growth for Opzelura over the next 5 years.
Okay. Yes. So since you mentioned the ex U.S. launch for Opzelura, how are you thinking about that?
Internationally, Opzelura is available for vitiligo. And in 2025, it did roughly $130 million in sales. We didn't have an indication for AD. We get the indication for AD in the second half of '26, and the AD market is about 5x the size of the vitiligo market. And so I expect it could throw off $200 million to $300 million in incremental sales over the next several years. The first country we're going to launch in, in Germany, where we have reasonable pricing, and we'll also launch in the other EU 4 countries.
Okay. What is the pricing differential between U.S. and Europe just directionally?
Depending on the country, it can be about 50%. But in Germany, it's better.
Okay. So how should we be thinking about the rest of this core business? We talked about Jakafi, we talked about Opzelura. As we approach 2028, you've done a good job of letting people know where you think sales might go to. Obviously, they're going to decrease because you're going to lose exclusivity. But what is the floor? Maybe just remind us what you think it's going to be? How long it will be there, and then we can move into talking about mCALR?
On a revenue basis.
Yes.
Yes. The core business without heroic assumptions about the other products, Monjuvi and Zynyz and we put povo in there, should be at least a $3 billion to $4 billion business, which is this core business growing at roughly, let's call it, a 20% CAGR. This quarter, our core business was up 63% year-over-year. And so it is in very good shape right now. What will be key is that when we launch Monjuvi for frontline DLBCL that we garner a reasonable percentage of that market.
Now you have Polivy and you have Epkinly, but there will be a place for Monjuvi, and we'll share data on our frontline DLBCL study, and there's only been 2 positive studies, Polivy and ours. On top of R-CHOP at the ASCO meeting, and people will be able to see the PFS, which we reported in the press release, but also how the product does across subgroups, different cells of origin, ABC and GCB. This was an IPI 3 to 5 population, so a more severe population, more complex patient group. And from our perspective, a 10% share of the frontline DLBCL market, which is modest in relative terms, doubles the size of Monjuvi. Then the povo launch is going to become very, very important, which we'll introduce in early 2027. We're currently discussing with the FDA the application. But the business right now with those 5 assets I think, reliably sets, as you put it, the floor for the company.
Okay. Maybe let's spend a minute on povo for HS. So where do you think in that treatment regimen this can fall into? It's going to get crowded pretty quickly? And what do you think are the special attributes here that we should be aware of?
HS is one of the most difficult dermatological conditions you can have other than maybe advanced skin cancer. There's no FDA-approved oral anti-inflammatory. It's a multi-cytokine disease. Povo is a multi-cytokine inhibitor. I think we're going to capture patients at 2 inflection points, pre-biologic and post-biologic. If you look at the data from our Phase III, you have biological efficacy, HiSCR 50, 75, 90 and 100, pain relief, drain tunnel clearance. And so I think that the market is structurally set up for an oral anti-inflammatory and for sequencing oral to biologic.
Now that's not to say that it's only going to be used prebiologic. I think it will source patients from both the prebiologic setting as well as the post-biologic setting. We know that IL-17s work. They don't work for everybody. There are patients on those drugs with active disease, not getting pain relief. There can be some wear-off. I think they would cycle right off of 17 onto an oral anti-inflammatory in this case, povorcitinib. And so our job right now is get it approved, broad label and wire the launch for success.
What is the proper range of pricing to assume?
It's a good question. There's a corridor in the market. If you just talk about WAC prices for a minute. At the low end, it's about $7,000 a month. At the high end, it's north of $10,000. We will work within that corridor. And as we get closer to launch, understand what the label looks like, we'll decide what the final price point is. But this will be about volume and establishing povo as a legitimate option in both of those populations.
Okay. And do you get the leverage of the sales force for Opzelura for this?
Yes, it's a good question. We get a lot of leverage out of it. We'll expand the sales force to call on some HS specialists, but most of the infrastructure is in place, and there is a lot of overlap.
Okay. And from the time it gets approved, how quickly can you start marketing it?
So we expect an approval at the end of 2026. I would say we'd have a launch all raring by first quarter of 2027. And one other point is Opzelura, if it gets positive data in HS in mild-to-moderate HS, which will get those results in the fourth quarter of 2026, we have a topical to oral solution and the leverage point that you just made is highly relevant to both products.
Okay. We'll come back to povo later, but I wanted to spend some time on mCALR. So this became -- data -- you started presenting data for this a couple of years ago, and it became a little bit more prominent last year. So I think when we have conversations with investors, MF, I think largely people understand what role it could play. We could talk about that for a minute, but I also want to spend some time on the potentially bigger indication, which is ET. So maybe let's start with ET and then we can go back to MF.
Yes. So we'll start the Phase III trial in the next several weeks. We have agreement with the FDA on a Phase III study design. I think the important thing when you think about ET is to stratify that market. And you have patients, half of 20,000 patients that are doing fine on hydroxyurea. But you have the other half of patients, which is about 10,000 patients, who do not achieve a complete hematological response, not because hydroxyurea is not an effective cytoreductive agent, but because it's very difficult to get to the 1,000-milligram dose where you can get those complete responses. Those patients have residual symptoms, residual thrombotic risk and albeit low residual transformation risk. Those are patients in their 40s or 50s. They'll live with ET for a good portion of their life.
So 989 achieves a complete hematological response, as you know. It varies by type, but roughly 80% and has a disease-modifying benefit in terms of the reduction in VAF. This would fundamentally change the way ET is treated from hydroxyurea, which is a trade-off drug to a disease-modifying mutation-specific targeted therapy in 989. And I think that it will reshape the way hydroxyurea is used today, assuming we take what we produced in Phase I and replicate that in a Phase III study, and we've talked about the design of that study, as you know.
Yes. So for physicians, when we talk to them, they say that, that specific patient population may not feel the need to be on therapy because they're not as advanced as an MF patient. So what's your market data research telling you on that?
Yes. If you look at patients with a CALR mutation in ET, they have very high platelet counts. And they're not achieving a response with hydroxyurea. And so the reason why a physician would say, well, it's a small number of patients is think about all the people with ET. It's like over 100,000. But if you look at the CALR population, it's roughly 20,000. And we're saying half of that 20,000, 10,000 is the target market for 989. And I don't -- I haven't met anybody that has not commented that ET for CALR patients is like a ticking time bomb. The disease does have the potential to cause thrombosis and transform, and they want to get platelet counts into a normal range. In this case, it's less than 400. And so I think if you stratify it the right way, this targeted therapy has utility in that part of the market.
Okay. So you're going to start your Phase III.
Yes.
How long do you think it will take to enroll that study?
From first patient and the last patient, you're probably looking at a 24-month period for enrollment and then you have, of course, 6 months of treatment.
Okay. In the meantime, do you have plans to show any follow-up data from previous data sets at medical meetings?
Yes, it's a good question. So at the EHA meeting in the middle of this year, the last data set we had was 55 patients at week 24. And at the EHA meeting, we will have 110. And so you'll see more patients at week 24.
Okay. And so what metrics should we be looking at there?
Yes, complete hematological response is namely the -- and you look at VAF. And you'll see that unlike in MF, which is a much more complex aggressive condition, the VAF reductions in ET are more pronounced and are stronger than even what we showed at ASH.
Okay. So that's ET. So let's now go to MF. So you've shown impressive data for that subset of the population already. Remind us what part of MF patients have the mCALR mutation?
Yes, it's a good question. About 35% of patients with MF have CALR mutation. Roughly speaking, it's probably almost 10,000 people.
And so how easy are these patients to find? Are they already types, gene types?
Yes. That is pretty routine these days. It's a good question. And we have not had any challenges in enrolling patients in our Phase I trial. I think the NPN community is especially focused on moving away from broad pathway nonspecific treatments to -- just like in other areas of oncology to mutation-specific targeted treatments.
Okay. So for CALR patients that have been on Jakafi, what are additional challenges that they've had relative to the patients who don't have the mutation?
Yes, it's a good question. This isn't widely known. There is data in the literature, and we will share data. Response rates with JAK inhibitors in CALR patients are lower than what you see in the overall population. So for example, if you look at the label for Jakafi, it achieves an SVR35 of between 30% and 40%. I think it's 29% and 40%. But in a CALR patient, it could be like 20%. And so it is a unique population of patients where we think 989, our monoclonal antibody can have a lot of utility.
Okay. So it does look like other companies, larger companies are also looking at this subset of patients. What do you think that is?
I think -- well, it goes to what we believe is a trend in MPNs, which is the JAK-STAT pathway has been -- is fully understood and exploited. But more and more, they're looking to segment the population, match therapies with the biology. And so I think we will see more and more work being done across MPNs, whether it's 989 with CALR or our 617F, so that precision oncology enters the area of MPNs.
Okay. Are there other mechanisms outside of JAK-STAT that you think could have efficacy on CALR patients as well?
Not that's not a broad pathway blocker. I mean this is a mutation-specific targeted approach. And one of the features of 989 is it's exquisitely selective, and you see that in the benefit risk profile. We focus a lot on spleen volume reduction, symptom relief, anemia response, the translational data. Notice every other novel mechanism for MPNs or most novel mechanisms for MPNs are associated with cytopenias and other toxicities, but the benefit risk profile of a monoclonal antibody like 989 is pretty impressive.
So what is the next data update for MF?
So at EHA, we will provide an update. At ASH, we showed data at week 24 in a second-line setting, 36 patients. And when we get to the EHA meeting, it will be roughly 60 patients.
Okay. And trend-wise, numbers do you want them to look the same as they did last year?
Yes, you're looking for consistency in terms of spleen volume reduction, symptom relief and anemia response, and we'll also share where we are with translational data.
Okay. Now what about combination of Jakafi with 989?
Yes, it's a very, very good question. It should be complementary. I think hematologists look at that combination as potentially very interesting. We're going to have data at the end of the year at the ASH meeting in 2026, looking at 989 in the frontline setting as a monotherapy and as a combination therapy. There is a concept, a use case of induction and maintenance where you work with 989 and with Jakafi and then perhaps maintain with 989. That's a concept. We would have to produce data and, of course, secure approval for that.
But Jakafi is dealing with spleen volume reduction in symptoms, but no other part of the disease. 989 is dealing with those 2 things plus anemia, platelets, neutrophils and as well as all the translational data that you've heard Pablo talk about, which is megakaryocytes and CD34 positive progenitor cells. And so it's a much more holistic approach and is focused on restoring bone marrow function, not just a quality of life endpoint.
Right. And what about the survival benefit that Jakafi has? How do you think that could be complementary in combination?
It should be additive, but those are data that we have to produce in long-term studies.
Okay. So let's maybe go back in a few minutes we have, I wanted to touch on povo again. Outside of HS, what other indications do you think are going to be compelling to look at?
Yes, it's a good question because we spend all of our time on HS because we have an NDA submitted to the FDA. But we will get data this year in the middle of the year. Well, we just got the vitiligo data, and we will have data at the end of the year in PN. And so you're talking about 3 indications. I think the primary driver for povo will be HS. But when you look at vitiligo, it's the largest market of the 3, HS and prurigo nodularis. The key with vitiligo is to medicalize the treatment. And the more and more patients and physicians see it as a chronic inflammatory condition, a chronic immune condition, the more likely you can unlock more and more patients.
I think that's key, whether it's AbbVie with their product or Pfizer with their product or Incyte with povorcitinib. One of the benefits that we have in vitiligo is we already have a topical solution with Opzelura. And so we will have a topical to oral option. And what povo does is it unlocks those patients with vitiligo who are not taking Opzelura who have a BSA of greater than 5%, where applying a topical on your body is not always that practical. And in prurigo nodularis, the way I look at it, that's an itch disease. And there's one thing JAK inhibitors are really good at, itch. I think JAKs were made for PN, and they work very fast. And so between the 3 indications, we think we have a product that could do between $1 billion to $2 billion in sales.
Okay. We've talked about this. In terms of vitiligo, so if you pursue povo in this indication, how does Opzelura fit in going forward?
I think they're complementary and they work together. And that's true whether you're in HS or whether you're in vitiligo. Opzelura is very good for people that have less skin involvement. Povo is much more practical for patients who have more extensive skin involvement. I expect very little cannibalization. And whatever cannibalization we get is more than manageable.
Okay. What have you learned from the vitiligo launch so far with Opzelura outside of -- it tends to be more popular and less surface area portions of the body, face, or hands?
Yes. I think that there's a lot of education that is required, educating about the condition, also educating about the time it takes for treatments, whether they be topical or oral to repigment the skin. And I think there are some patients who are willing to live with it. And I think that's a choice. And I think there are other patients that are really looking to manage it, especially when your vitiligo is affecting your hands and your arms and your face and your neck, which are very sensitive areas. There is a major consumer activation component in a condition like this so that patients are aware of the availability of the treatment. And I think with povorcitinib and Opzelura, we can leverage both assets to -- because I do believe you could unlock diagnosis and treatment to a much greater extent with approved orals, ours and others that we haven't been able to do before.
Okay. So how should we be thinking about the catalysts over the next 12 months? So we've talked about upcoming data for a ASCO. What should we be thinking about for ESMO?
So 2 important data updates at ESMO. One is we have -- we'll have an update on our frontline study with G12D in combination with standard of care chemo. So our G12D plus mFOLFIRINOX and GEMNabP. We're very reassured by the data in terms of the objective response rate. The most important component here at this point is durability of response and an estimate on PFS. But we have...
That's in PDAC.
That's in PDAC. In fact, that's exactly right. We have a novel G12D inhibitor, very active combinable with both mFOLFIRINOX and GEMNabP, and we started a Phase III study, as you know. I believe it's an underappreciated asset. I think it's going to start to declare itself and could be an anchor for our solid tumor oncology portfolio in Incyte. We will also provide an update on our TGF-beta x PD-1 bispecific in colorectal cancer. You'll see those data on top of FOLFOX bev, bev and cetuximab. And that is also an interesting opportunity for us. As you know, PD-1s have almost no efficacy in MSS CRC. We showed in our late line or second and third line Phase I study, an objective response rate of about 15%, 23% no liver mets, 12% liver mets. This is a really unique product. No one's cracked the code on TGF-beta x PD-1. The program is still maturing. We are in a Phase III study. It was a calculated risk. It has the potential to be an outlier opportunity for the company. Let's watch the data mature, and we'll see if we have something.
Okay. So that covers ESMO. Then we talked about EHA and we've talked about ASH. So that covers 2026. Did I miss anything?
No, you didn't. Good job.
Okay. And then what data readouts just summarize top level to expect next year?
Good question. In 2027, Well, we'll have updates on the 989 program on JAK2 617, anything coming out of discovery. And we'll probably also have some updates on the solid tumor oncology program. What we'll be in launch mode in is all of our immunology business.
Okay. Perfect. And then last question for me really quickly. Your views on business development, bringing in assets?
Look, it's going to be an important part of our growth strategy like every company. And we're focused on the 3 therapeutic areas that we're in today. I think a deal for Incyte can come in 1 of 2 sizes, a smaller transaction, somewhat derisked, less upfront capital or something that may be a little bit larger that requires more upfront capital. And our balance sheet is a strategic asset right now. What we're solving for in BD is not a revenue gap. It's constructing a portfolio of multiple growth drivers so that Incyte could be a top quartile growth company post '29.
So is it important for you that anything you bring in already generates revenue? Or do you prefer it not yet be closer to it, but not yet.
It doesn't. I think business development for revenue stage assets, there's not a lot of return left for the buyer, as you know. Flip side is we're not looking to buy a lot of unbounded downside risk. I think we're looking for things that can contribute to top quartile growth when we hit 2030, '31, '32, which would be entering Phase III somewhat derisked. I think those make the most sense for Incyte.
Okay. Perfect. All right. Thank you. With that, we're out of time. Thanks, guys, for joining.
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Incyte — Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Incyte — Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference 2026
CEO Meury skizziert Incytes Übergang zu mehreren Wachstumsachsen: Produktlaunches, Präzisions-Onkologie und klare Phase‑III‑Fahrpläne.
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Strategie: Fokus auf "Act 2": Diversifizierung jenseits von Jakafi durch Lebenszyklus‑Management, neue Produkte und zielgerichtete Onkologie.
- Near‑term‑Wachstum: Mehrere nahegelegene kommerzielle Katalysatoren (Jakafi XR, povorcitinib "povo", Opzelura ex‑US) plus Phase‑III‑Programme (mCALR/989) sollen das Umsatzprofil stabilisieren.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Jakafi XR: Einmal‑täglich‑Formulierung als Lebenszyklushebel; Management erwartet bis zu ~20% Conversion mittelfristig (~$0,75 Mrd potenziell).
- Opzelura: Starke U.S.-Performance; Prognose für 2026 ~ $780 Mio, Ziel ~ $1,3 Mrd bis 2030; EU‑Start für atopische Dermatitis H2 2026 geplant.
- Povorcitinib (povo): NDA eingereicht für Hidradenitis suppurativa, erwartete Zulassung Ende 2026 und Launch Q1 2027; Management peilt $1–2 Mrd Marktpotenzial an, Preis‑Korridor $7k–$10k/Monat.
- mCALR (989): Monoklonaler Antikörper gegen mutiertes Calreticulin für MPN; Phase‑III für essentiell thrombocytäre (ET) Patienten startet demnächst, Zielpopulation ~10.000 Patienten.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Formular‑Strategie: Jakafi XR wurde preislich auf Parität zu IR positioniert; Management erwartet ~50% Formulary‑Coverage innerhalb 6–9 Monaten.
- Internationale Expansion: Opzelura AD‑Indikation ex‑US in H2‑2026, potentiell $200–300 Mio Zusatzumsatz; erster Launch in Deutschland.
- Zulassungs‑Timelines: Povo: Zulassung Ende 2026 → kommerzieller Start Q1‑2027. 989: Phase‑III‑Enrollment ~24 Monate, Datenupdates bei EHA/ASH eingeplant.
- Spezial‑Onkologie: G12D‑Inhibitor und TGF‑βxPD‑1‑Bispezifisches in Phase‑III; Management sieht Outlier‑Potential, Programm reift.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Jakafi XR‑Conversion: Wie schnell reale Umstellung stattfindet und ob Formulary‑Zugriff die erwarteten 20% Conversion ermöglicht.
- Opzelura‑Nutzung: Niedriger Verbrauch pro Patient vs. höhere New‑starts — wird Marktpenetration die Volumendefizite kompensieren?
- Povo‑Positionierung: Sequenzierung zu Biologika, Preisfestlegung im $7k–$10k‑Corridor und Überschneidung mit Opzelura bei Vitiligo/HS.
- mCALR‑Risiken: Einschätzung der Einordnung in Therapiealgorithmen, Einreihung gegenüber JAK‑Inhibitoren und Zeitplan für kombinierte Daten mit Jakafi.
⚡ Bottom Line
Incyte präsentiert einen klaren Plan zur Entkopplung vom Jakafi‑Risiko: mehrere near‑term Kommerzstarts (Jakafi XR, povo, Opzelura ex‑US) plus datengetriebene Phase‑III‑Programme (989, G12D, TGF‑βxPD‑1). Kursrelevanz hängt stark von Launch‑Execution, Formulary‑Zugriff und erwarteten Zulassungen ab; Balanceblatt erlaubt selektive Zukäufe. Insgesamt positiv, aber stark execution‑abhängig.
Incyte — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Greetings, and welcome to the Incyte First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]
It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Alexis Smith, Vice President, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Alexis.
Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Incyte's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, I encourage everyone to go to the Investors section of our website to find the press release, related financial tables and slides that follow today's discussion.
On today's call, I'm joined by Bill, Pablo and Tom, who will deliver our prepared remarks. Steven, Dave and Mohamed will also be available for the Q&A portion of today's call. I would like to point out that we will be making forward-looking statements, which are based on our current expectations and beliefs. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially. I encourage you to consult the risk factors discussed in our SEC filings for additional detail.
I will now hand the call over to Bill.
Thank you, Alexis, and good morning, everyone. We're off to a strong start in 2026 with net sales up 20% year-over-year, driven by strong demand across our entire portfolio. In parallel, we advanced the pipeline with key regulatory and clinical milestones. We view '26 as a year of strategic progress as we transition Incyte beyond a single cornerstone product toward a high-quality, growth-oriented portfolio across hematology, oncology and immunology. This progress will come from multiple sources, the continued organic growth from our commercial portfolio, the execution of life cycle launches of key brands, the advancement of a broad increasingly late-stage pipeline and a focused approach to business development. The sequencing and pace of execution here matters as these efforts are intended to lay the foundation for a future beyond Jakafi.
During the quarter, the FDA accepted our regulatory application for povorcitinib in patients with moderate to severe HS. The application was submitted ahead of schedule and is supported by a robust high-quality data set across both pre- and post-biologic patient populations. If approved, we believe povo should be a significant growth driver for Incyte as the first FDA-approved oral anti-inflammatory treatment for HS, a disease which affects more than 300,000 people in the United States. We also remain on track for several regulatory decisions this year, including Jakafi XR, which has the potential to generate meaningful sales and serve as an important sales bridge and Opzelura for moderate atopic dermatitis in Europe, a key future growth opportunity for the brand and our international business.
Finally, we expect global submissions from Monjuvi in the first-line DLBCL in the first half of the year with approval and launch anticipated in early 2027. Across the pipeline, we continue to advance novel compounds that support our broader transition to a hem/onc I&I company. The pipeline reflects a deliberate balance of risk and reward, combining programs with the potential for outsized returns alongside opportunities that can deliver incremental but highly reliable growth. This work is backed by an experienced clinical development and clinical operations team and consistent execution across trials.
In hematology, we had a positive end of phase meeting with the FDA in the first quarter and are on track to initiate our Phase III study in evaluating our mutant CALR antibody 989 in previously treated CALR positive patients with ET by midyear. This represents an important step as we continue to build a portfolio of molecularly targeted therapies, which Pablo will discuss in more detail shortly.
In oncology, we now have 4 pivotal trials underway across colorectal, ovarian and pancreatic cancers, including the recent initiation of our G12D program in first-line pancreatic cancer earlier this month. These programs target areas of significant unmet need and represent meaningful long-term growth opportunities for the company.
In immunology, we are advancing registration programs in mild to moderate HS for Opzelura and moderate to severe HS, vitiligo and PN for povorcitinib. In addition to the regulatory acceptance for povo and HS mentioned earlier, today, we announced positive results from both Phase III registration studies in adults with nonsegmental vitiligo. These results will support a regulatory application in nonsegmental vitiligo expected in the first half of 2027. Over time, we believe the I&I portfolio at Incyte has the potential to become a significant contributor to the business, representing approximately 1/3 of total revenue by 2030.
Finally, I want to take a moment to talk about management. At this stage of the company, our results depend largely on the strength of our management team. Experience, judgment, decision-making and the ability to execute strategic plans. With that context, we have made several executive appointments. This morning, we announced the appointment of Suky Upadhyay as Chief Financial Officer. Suky brings deep experience leading large finance organizations, most recently Zimmer Biomet and Bristol-Myers Squibb. We also announced the appointment of Pablo Cagnoni as President, Incyte and Global Head of Research and Development; and Steven Stein as Executive Vice President and Chief Medical Officer and Head of Late-stage Development.
Additionally, Mohamed Issa was appointed as Executive Vice President and Head of U.S. Commercial, coinciding with the integration of our U.S. commercial operations into a single organization. Mohamed is an experienced executive with a track record of new product launch planning and operations. The new structure is intended to establish consistent standards and enterprise-level capabilities across analytics, market access, sales operations and patient services, creating a launch-ready organization in 2026. These capabilities can be leveraged across the portfolio to maximize the return on our commercial investments. Taken together, these appointments give us the management experience and operational oversight for the next phase of the company.
Now turning to the quarter. Total revenue in the first quarter of '26 was $1.27 billion, up 21% over prior year. Net sales in the first quarter totaled $1.1 billion, representing 20% growth year-over-year. Sales increased for every marketed product, both in the United States and internationally, and was driven by strong prescription and volume demand across the portfolio. Jakafi sales in the first quarter were $758 million, up 7% year-over-year. Prescription demand increased 6% with broad-based growth across all indications, MF, PV and GVHD. New patient starts remain strong.
The prescriber base is stable and a formulary coverage is broad, providing an important foundation for the Jakafi XR launch. We anticipate the approval and launch of XR in the middle of the year. Our immediate focus will be on securing adequate formulary coverage for XR over the next 12 months post launch. We estimate that XR can achieve 10% to 30% of Jakafi's business by 2029. We'll provide more insights on the launch in future quarters.
Sales for our core business, excluding Jakafi, were up 63% year-over-year, with contributions across hematology, oncology and immunology. This business will be supported by 4 new product launches over the next 12 months including Jakafi XR, Opzelura for moderate AD dermatitis in Europe, Monjuvi in first-line DLBCL and povorcitinib in HS. As we've discussed, our core business ex Jakafi has the potential to approach $3 billion to $4 billion by 2030, reflecting the strength of the portfolio and continued execution. It is becoming an increasingly important part of how we transition the company for long-term growth.
Opzelura continues to be the largest single contributor to the core business ex Jakafi with sales of $143 million, up 20% versus prior year. In the U.S., sales were $106 million, an increase of 12% versus the first quarter of '25. The underlying prescription demand for this business is strong, up 17% year-over-year, which is supported by the continued adoption of nonsteroidal topical therapies. Internationally, growth remains robust in vitiligo where we see strong uptake across markets. In the first quarter, sales totaled $37 million, up 56% year-over-year.
Internationally, growth remains robust in Vitiligo, where we see strong uptake across markets. As a reminder, Opzelura is under review by European regulators for moderate AD, and we expect approval and launch in the second half of the year. The moderate AD indication has the potential to contribute meaningfully to top line revenue beginning later this year. For full year '26, we anticipate that roughly 80% of revenue will come from the U.S. and 20% from international markets.
In Hematology and Oncology, net sales grew 116% to $204 million. Niktimvo, Monjuvi and Zynyz were the largest contributors to growth in the quarter. Niktimvo has now entered its second year following its launch in the first quarter of '25. Net sales were $55 million in the first quarter of '26, reflecting a strong consistent new patient start profile and solid persistency. We've built a broad growing prescriber base with virtually every BMT center in the United States using Niktimvo with all becoming repeat customers. Within 12 months, Niktimvo has captured 32% of the third line plus market. Finally, formulary and payer coverage remains strong for the brand.
Monjuvi sales were $49 million in the first quarter, up 67% year-over-year. Growth was primarily driven by uptake in follicular lymphoma following approvals in the U.S. and international markets. Looking ahead, the potential U.S. approval in first-line DLBCL represents an incremental growth opportunity starting in 2027. Finally, Zynyz sales were $41 million in the first quarter with rapid and robust adoption in SCAC.
Now I'll turn the call over to Pablo.
Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. We have made strong progress year-to-date across our hematology, oncology and immunology franchises, delivering key regulatory and clinical accomplishments.
Turning to hematology. We achieved several important milestones for 989, our mutant CALR monoclonal antibody, where pivotal development efforts continue to advance. Most notably, this includes the positive end-of-phase meeting with the FDA in the first quarter. As a result, we're on track to initiate the Phase III study evaluating 989 in patients with previously treated essential thrombocythemia midyear, a key inflection point for this program. Our JAK2 V617F inhibitor program, 058, continues to progress. During the first quarter, we initiated our Phase I dose escalation study evaluating the ASD formulation of 058 in MPN patients with a JAK2 mutation. Preliminary data in a modest number of patients anticipated by year-end, which we expect will provide early evidence of clinical efficacy as well as an increased understanding of the viability of the ASD formulation for future development efforts.
In parallel, we're progressing our next-generation compounds through preclinical studies. We remain confident in the underlying thesis that the inhibition of V617F will lead to positive clinical outcomes in patients with MPNs that harbor this mutation.
Lastly, in addition to the previously announced positive top line data for tafasitamab in first-line DLBCL, we plan to present the full data set during a featured oral presentation at the upcoming ASCO Annual Meeting in June. This data supports global regulatory submissions for tafasitamab in first-line DLBCL with approval and launch anticipated early next year.
Turning to oncology. During the quarter, Zynyz was approved by the European Commission for patients who previously untreated squamous cell anal carcinoma, adding a second indication for Zynyz in Europe. In our pipeline, this month, we initiated a Phase III study evaluating our KRAS G12D inhibitor, 734 in combination with chemotherapy in first-line pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma or PDAC patients. This marks a significant step for the program as it enters late-stage development in a setting with substantial medical need.
Finally, in immunology, we have made meaningful regulatory and clinical progress advancing our late-stage portfolio. Notably, this includes the new drug application acceptance by the FDA for povorcitinib in moderate to severe hidradenitis suppurativa as well as the positive results of our Phase III registrational program evaluating povorcitinib in patients with nonsegmental vitiligo.
I will now turn to 989. In the first quarter, we had a positive end of face meeting with the FDA on the development program in ET. The Phase III trial will evaluate 989 compared to best available therapy in both type 1 and nontype 1 mutant CALR positive patients with ET who are resistant or intolerant to at least one prior cytoreductive therapy. The trial will utilize a flexible dosing schedule starting with 750 milligrams IV every 2 weeks, with a single dose escalation option built in to allow for appropriate optimization based on early platelet response. The primary endpoint is durable complete hematologic response or DCHR at week 24. The reduction of mutant CALR VAF from baseline will be evaluated as a key secondary input in the trial, further underscoring the unique mutation-specific and potentially disease modifying profile of 989. We're encouraged by a dialogue with the FDA and have a clear and executable path towards forward Incyte second-line ET with a Phase III study on track to initiate midyear.
In parallel to ET, we're progressing our development efforts in myelofibrosis, or MF, where we are evaluating 989 as the first and second line treatment option. Data from our ongoing Phase I program will be shared throughout the year. We remain on track to initiate a Phase III trial evaluating 989 as a second-line treatment in mutant CALR policy patients with MF in the second half of 2026, pending alignment with the FDA in the middle of the year. The Phase I cohort evaluating 989 as a single agent and in combination with ruxolitinib in patients with previously untreated MF is enrolling well. Finally, we initiated and completed a Phase I study evaluating a subcutaneous formulation of 989 in healthy volunteers, supporting our strategy to expand utility and improve convenience for patients. These results enable the initiation of a Phase I study in mutant CALR positive patients in the second quarter.
I will now turn to our oncology portfolio. Starting with 734, a KRAS G12D inhibitor, which is emerging as a very important pipeline opportunity for Incyte. The Phase III trial evaluating 734 in combination with standard of care chemotherapy, gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel or modified FOLFIRINOX in first-line PDAC is underway. More than 200,000 patients are diagnosed with PDAC with G12D being the most common driver mutation impacting 40% of patients. Today, there are no molecular targeted therapies for patients with pancreatic cancer and chemotherapy has been the foundation of care for decades.
What we believe is particularly important is the combination profile of 734 with standard of care chemotherapy. To date, 734 has demonstrated a manageable tolerability profile we combined with either gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel or modified FOLFIRINOX without compromising chemotherapy dose intensity. Given how PDAC is treated in practice, especially in the first-line setting, that ability to combine effectively with both full dose chemotherapy regimens is critical. This is reflected in our Phase III development program.
Our maturing Phase I data reinforces our conviction in this opportunity, which we view as increasingly derisked. We plan to share efficacy and safety data from the Phase I study in combination with modified FOLFIRINOX and gem/nab in first-line PDAC patients in the second half of the year. The distinguishing feature of our development approach is the scale and depth of our Phase I clinical program where roughly 400 patients have been treated with 734 across PDAC, colorectal, non-small cell lung and other 12D mutated cancers. This has allowed us to build a robust and comprehensive understanding of both clinical activity, safety and tolerability across tumor types and treatment settings, which is informing our development efforts.
With a strong early clinical foundation and Phase III development now underway, our focus remains on execution as we advance this program that has the potential to become the first KRAS G12D specific inhibitor approved in first-line PDAC. In parallel, we continue to evaluate expansion opportunities in additional G12D-driven tumors, and we plan to share more about our efforts later this year.
Oncology portfolio has reached an important inflection point with each of our core programs now in registrational development and actively enrolling patients. Pivotal efforts for A90, a TGF-beta receptor 2 by PD-1 bispecific are underway. The Phase III trial evaluating A90 in combination with FOLFIRINOX bevacizumab in first-line MSS colorectal cancer patients is ongoing. In the second half of the year, we anticipate sharing additional data from the Phase I study in combination with FOLFIRINOX, in first-line colorectal patients as well as a combination with bevacizumab in previously treated patients with colorectal cancer. 667, our CDK2 inhibitors in pivotal development in patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer Cyclin E1 over expression, a biomarker-defined population with significant medical need.
The MAESTRO clinical program consists of 3 studies, 2 ongoing trials, a Phase II single arm study and a Phase III versus investigator's choice chemotherapy and a planned Phase III study in the first-line maintenance setting, which we expect to initiate in the second half of 2026.
Finally, in immunology, we have made significant progress advancing our late-stage development efforts for povorcitinib, our oral JAK1 small molecule inhibitor. This includes the NDA acceptance in HS and as announced today, the positive results from our Phase II/III registrational program in nonsegmental vitiligo. In HS, last month, at the American Academy of Dermatology Annual Meeting, we presented late-breaking 54-week data from our Phase III STOP-HS program, which reinforced both the durability and the breadth of response associated with long-term povorcitinib treatment. Continuous improvements in clinical outcomes were observed at week 54 and with up to 71% and 57% of patients achieving HiSCR50 and HiSCR75 respectively. Further, up to 29% of patients achieved HiSCR100, the most stringent end point in HS which represents a 100% reduction in abscess and inflammatory nodules count with no increase in draining tunnels. Up to 20% of patients achieved complete clearance of draining tunnels and nodules at week 54.
Clinically meaningful improvements in skin pain, fatigue and quality of life measures, outcomes that are highly relevant to patients and clinicians managing this chronic disease were also observed. Finally, from a safety perspective, both 45 and 75 milligram doses were generally well tolerated throughout the study, supporting the profile for chronic use in HS. This data supports the potential for povorcitinib to deliver symptom control and durable disease improvement in patients with moderate to severe HS, both before and after biologic therapy. With the regulatory application accepted, we look forward to working with the FDA towards a potential approval and launch in early 2027.
Today, we also announced positive results from our Phase III program evaluating povorcitinib in adults with nonsegmental vitiligo. Our Phase III program is evaluating the efficacy, safety and tolerability of povorcitinib compared to placebo in patients with nonsegmental vitiligo across 2 identical Phase III studies, STOP-V1 and STOP-V2 for 52 weeks. The program enrolled over 900 patients including 456 patients who received a 30-milligram dose of povorcitinib. In both trials, povorcitinib achieved the primary endpoint of greater than or equal to 75% reduction in facial vitiligo area scoring index, F-VASI, from baseline to week 52, demonstrating statistically significant and clinically meaningful reductions in facial vitiligo compared to placebo.
Statistically significant improvements were also observed in key secondary endpoint measures including total vitiligo scoring index 50 or T-VASI 50 at week 52. The 30-milligram dose of povorcitinib was well tolerated. The overall safety profile for 52 weeks is consistent with prior studies with no new safety signals observed. Across both studies, rates of treatment-emergent adverse events of special interest were low between 2% and 3% and similar between the povorcitinib and placebo treatment groups. There were no major adverse cardiovascular events. Only one TEAE of VTE was observed in the povorcitinib treatment group in a patient with multiple confounding risk factors, including smoking history, high BMI and intercurrent pneumonia. These results provide a clear and compelling path towards registration planned for the first half of 2027 and underscore the opportunity to add an oral alternative treatment for patients with vitiligo to our portfolio. We plan to share additional data from the trials in the second half of 2026.
Povorcitinib continues to produce compelling data in immune-mediated dermatological conditions. We have seen success in translating early Phase II findings into larger registrational programs with now 4 post Phase III trials across HS and vitiligo. As we look ahead, we expect data from our third indication for prurigo nodularis by end of year. In addition to povorcitinib, we are evaluating Opzelura in a Phase III registrational program for the treatment of mild to moderate HS with top line results expected end of year. If positive, this result would support a supplemental new drug application in 2027. And if approved, Opzelura would provide the first topical treatment option for patients with HS.
Our JAK/ANKO franchise is well positioned to provide topical to oral solutions across mild to severe immune-mediated dermatological conditions, and we look forward to providing more updates this year.
To close, we have a catalyst-rich year ahead with multiple late-stage data readouts, regulatory milestones and pivotal trial initiations across our 3 core franchises, underscoring the breadth, depth and maturity of our pipeline.
With that, I'll turn it over to Tom for a financial update on the quarter.
Thanks, Pablo. As Bill mentioned earlier, our total revenues and net sales for the first quarter were $1.27 billion and $1.10 billion, respectively, increasing 21% and 20% from the prior year. Our GAAP R&D expenses were $516 million for the quarter, increasing 18% from the prior year, driven by continued investment in our late-stage development assets including our mutant CALR, G12D and CDK 2 programs.
Moving to SG&A. GAAP SG&A expenses were $328 million for the quarter, increasing 1% year-over-year. Ongoing operating expenses for the first quarter of 2026 increased 14% year-over-year compared to a 19% increase in ongoing revenues during the same period, leading to a continued increase in operating leverage and margins. We reaffirm our full year 2026 total net sales, R&D and SG&A operating expense guidance.
Total net sales guidance for the full year 2026 is $4.77 billion to $4.94 billion representing a 10% to 13% increase from the prior year. This includes net sales expectations for Jakafi of $3.22 billion to $3.27 billion, Opzelura of $750 million the $790 million and hematology and oncology products of $800 million to $880 million. Total GAAP R&D and SG&A operating expenses are expected to be $3.495 billion to $3.675 billion for the full year. Finally, we anticipate cost of sales to remain relatively stable, representing approximately 9% of net sales.
I'll now turn the call back over to Bill.
Thanks, Tom. In closing, we're off to a strong start to the year. Our core business continues to deliver durable growth. Our pipeline is advancing with multiple catalysts ahead, and we've strengthened our leadership team to support the next phase of execution. As we look ahead, we see 2026 as a year of execution with multiple inflection points across the business that we believe will further strengthen both our near-term performance and long-term growth trajectory.
And with that, I'll turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is coming from Tazeen Ahmad from Bank of America.
2. Question Answer
Congrats on the positive data for povo for the nonsegmental vitiligo. I wanted to ask what your thoughts are as you prepared the next step, how do you see this coexisting with Opzelura in the commercial space? What's been your experience with marketing and this indication so far? And do you think that each of these drugs could be appealing for a different segment of vitiligo?
Yes. Thanks for the question, Tazeen. I'll make a few comments and then ask Mohamed, our U.S. commercial head, to also expand on how we're thinking about vitiligo. I think there's a real opportunity here with the FDA approvals of oral treatments to essentially unlock the vitiligo market in the same way that advanced systemic therapies unlocked AD and psoriasis. I think that these approvals will create awareness that vitiligo is a chronic inflammatory disorder. And I think that is important for everybody that's going to be in the market.
This is definitely about medicalizing the condition. Frankly, I think Incyte does have an advantage in that we have a topical to oral solution. There is a natural sequencing that sets up in the vitiligo market and we're able to cover sort of the waterfront with both Opzelura as well as with povorcitinib. And that's ultimately going to be, I think, the key to success here -- we have the advantage of incumbency. We have direct ties to the providers. We know how they think about this condition. We understand the education that's required to increase the treatment rate -- and we, of course, have interactions with payers on this front, too. And so I think it's going to be an important contributor to povo being 1 of the 3 indications that we're pursuing right now.
Mohamed, do you have anything to add?
Really well said, Bill. Look, maybe just some context to the indications. We have obviously reason to believe there's 1.5 million people living with vitiligo in the U.S. and only 20% to 30% seek treatment, like Bill mentioned, a good portion of those patients, about 35% of them have a BSA less than 5. Those are going to be really good patient segments for Opzelura. You even have a patient segment between 5 and 10 BSA. That's also a target patient population for Opzelura. And then for patients with BSA greater than 10, where systemic therapy is most likely we estimate that total addressable market to be about $1.5 billion to $2 billion, which gives povo a great opportunity to address that need as well. And like Bill mentioned, having a topical to oral continuum for vitiligo and even HS if both products get approved, puts us in a really unique position as Incyte to satisfy that patient journey from the beginning all the way to advanced treatment.
Next question today is coming from James Shin from Deutsche Bank.
I appreciate all the color on 989. But I just wanted to check in, will 989's EHA update be mostly a check-the-box kind of update? Or will there be some new wrinkles to glean? And just if I could sneak one in. I don't know if Suky is on the call, but Bill, I know you guys mentioned previously having expense discipline, but what changes, if any, will Suky brings?
Great. James, you snuck in a second question, so there may be a penalty after the call. I'll let Pablo answer the first question.
Thank you for the question. So the update at EHA it's going to be pretty substantial. We have continued to enroll in these studies. We have longer follow-up and we have continued to deepen our translational understanding of the effects of 989 in patients with both ET and MF. So you should expect continued growth in number of patients. In ET, we'll have approximately 100 patients enrolled and we'll report data in those. For MF in terms of the second line, we'll have about 45 patients, 45 patients, single agent and about 15 to 16 patients in combination with ruxolitinib. And I think, first of all, the data has continued to evolve well. We think the durability is an important point. We think the continued tolerability of 989 in this patient population is very important. And we do think that continue to see how the translational part of the story continues to evolve with clear evidence of disease eradication disease modification by 989 in patients with MPN is very important. So you should expect to see a lot more of that at EHA.
Yes. And as it relates to Suky, look, he has extensive experience at both large and small companies. We have a very strong finance department at the company. He's going to focus on the things that a CFO needs to focus on. both strategically and operationally. You want to make sure that your budget planning process is efficient and sharp. You want to make sure that capital allocation decisions are made intelligently. There's, of course, a role in terms of setting up the right systems so that we can scale the company and we're really glad to have him. So thanks, James.
Next question is coming from Stephen Willey from Stifel.
So I guess, congrats on securing the 24-week CHR endpoint in the pivotal ET trial. But just wondering if you can provide some more detail around the mechanics of dose escalation just in terms of the platelet response criteria that will be used to trigger that and then just how that works from a timing perspective. And then just as a follow-up, just given some of the flexibility here that you were given from the agency around the EP around the ET end point, just curious how you think this now kind of reads into your ability to secure additional flexibility from the agency in the pivotal second-line MF trial?
Go ahead, Pablo.
Certainly, so let me start with your last point there because I think it's very important. We had a very constructive set of interactions with FDA. So we're very, very happy how these conversations are going. And I think they recognize 989 is a fundamentally different way to treat patients with MPN. It's truly not only molecular targeted therapy but has the potential for disease modification, and that needs to be contemplated as we implement Phase III trials and as we select endpoint for these Phase III trials. So in terms of the conversations on MF, we believe, as you alluded to, that this will allow us to have a conversation with FDA about defining endpoints in MF that truly reflect the effects of 989 in terms of normalizing hematopoiesis, which we think it's a critical difference compared with existing therapies for patients with MF. So we'll provide more updates on this later in the year, but we think that dialogue is going to be very constructive as it was in ET.
In terms of your specific question about ET, if you remember the data we presented last year, with 989 does in patients with ET is a very rapid normalization in platelet count that happens very soon after the first dose. And by the end of the first cycle, it's about a month, most of the patients that will normalize plates have done so. So we believe that an early dose escalation at that point for patients that are not early responders is the right approach here to take into account the heterogeneity that we see sometimes in the response. So we believe that by this, we'll be able to cover patients with all kinds of mutations and have a treatment effect across the board in patients with ET.
Our next question today is coming from Etzer Darout from Barclays.
Great. Thanks for today's earnings update. So we noticed the updated guidance for ruxolitinib now in the second half versus early 2027 for first-line GVHD. Just -- maybe if you could talk about your expectation for that study? And given sort of the move up in time line, potential to maybe accelerate the pivotal program in combo with ruxolitinib?
I just want to -- I want to make sure your question is related to Niktimvo and the Phase III study with Jakafi?
Yes. The movement in the second half out versus early 2027 that you had previously guided to?
Go ahead, Pablo.
So let me take that. So the study -- the randomized Phase II study combining Niktimvo with rux and comparing that with rux and steroids, accrued very quickly, well ahead of schedule. As a result of that, we'll have data before the end of this year, and that will help us define the rest of the regulatory strategy to bring Niktimvo to first-line chronic graft versus host disease patients.
The next question today is coming from Ash Verma from UBS.
So just on 989, trying to understand the implications of this flexible dose escalation in ET pivotal trial design for the MF indication. So I mean how do you think that plays out? Like could this be a challenge if you have to titrate patients and some don't get the benefit of the efficacy unless you get the 2500 mg dose? And especially like how would that be relevant if you're pursuing the first line MF indication?
When you look at the data that we presented twice last year, a substantial percentage of patients with ET respond by normalizing platelet count at doses well below the dose escalation of 2,500. Based on that, we think that the starting dose of 750 milligrams IV every other week, is the right way to start because a lot of the patients with normalized platelet count with that. And that alone will support achieving the primary endpoint of the study, which is durable complete hematologic response at 24 weeks.
Now there's a percentage of patients like it tends to happen molecular targeted therapies that are less sensitive to 989. And for those patients, we thought one step up to 2,500 should cover the efficacy in that patient population. So we basically designed the study to try to cover the heterogeneity in this population. We believe that the early dose escalation step is the right way to do it. We believe that the rapid effect of 989 normalizing platelets in patients that will do so, will allow us to very quickly make that determination. And obviously, as I mentioned at the beginning, we had a very constructive discussion with FDA, and we reached an agreement on this.
Next question is coming from Michael Schmidt from Guggenheim.
I had one on 734, the KRAS G12D program. So nice to see the chemo combo study now up and running in PDAC. Pablo, just curious how you think about either potentially pursuing other registration opportunities in PDA perhaps with investigational therapies such as pan-RAS inhibitors? Or -- and then how do you think about addressing other tumor types such as lung and colorectal cancers?
Thank you for the question, Michael. So first of all, let me just say, we are very pleased how this -- the data are evolving. We'll have an update for all of you later in the year, but the combination with chemotherapy, which we showed the ability earlier this year at the ASCO GI meeting, but now the response rate data is coming in, and we'll have that as well as more durability data later in the year, and we're very pleased with the progress of this program and the implementation of the Phase III pivotal trial in first line. In parallel with that, we've done a lot of work in other contexts. First of all, in pancreatic cancer, we have a strong interest in adjuvant and we're trying to decide the right design there. You'll hear more about that in the second half of the year.
We're also then in combination with Erbitux, which I think one of the really important advantage of 734 in this competitive landscape is the absence of rash. And so the combination with EGFR inhibitors is key, and it will be key, we believe, to develop these therapies in colorectal cancer. So you'll hear more about that later in the year, which could be both in combination with Erbitux alone or Erbitux plus chemotherapy in different lines of therapy in colorectal cancer. And finally, we have enrolled a cohort of patients with non-small cell lung cancer. We'll have data on that in the second half of the year. All this gives you an idea how we're going to potentially expand this program later in the year, and we'll give you a comprehensive update when we present the updated data.
Next question is coming from Matt Phipps from William Blair.
I'll follow up on 734. I just wanted to confirm that all studies have resumed enrollment following that temporary pause a month or so ago to review those pneumonitis events? And I guess, is a history of pneumonitis and going to be an exclusion criteria for DAWN-303 Phase II study?
So let me recap on what happened here because it's important to have clarity. We had the event of pneumonitis. We reported -- we did a full program review that encounter 4 cases of pneumonitis in more than 350 patients treated. Importantly, 3 of those patients were receiving 734 in combination with chemotherapy. And 2 of the patients had concurrent infections. And an in-depth review of the data concluded there was no signal that about the incidence of 734 producing pneumonitis in these patients. But it's very important to remember. Now the Phase III study was never put in pause. We -- what we did is in order to amend consent forms and investigator brochure, Europe, it's an administrative reason, they put enrollment on hold in the Phase I study. So that -- those have been amended now. It will reopen. Nothing ever stopped in the U.S. We have continued to enroll patients. The implementation of the Phase III study continues apace without any interruptions.
The next question is coming from Judah Frommer from Morgan Stanley.
Just curious on Opzelura. If you could comment on competition, within the nonsteroidal topical market. Is that still a growing pie? Are you fighting for share just within the market kind of ex steroids? And then just curious on -- in terms of the long-term guide for Opzelura doubling, how important is it to have povo approved in those indications for those multiple tools within the tool bag for those indications?
Yes, Judah, thanks for the question. I'll start with the second question that you asked and then double back on the first. When you think about this business over the next 5 years, there's essentially 3 components to growth. And I do believe Opzelura has the potential to grow it, let's call it, a 10% to 15% CAGR over this period of time. First component is organic growth, which is what you're talking about, continued penetration of the AD and vitiligo markets.
The second component of growth is the launch of the HS indication for Opzelura and mild to moderate HS. And then there's the launch of Opzelura in Europe for atopic dermatitis, which could throw off $200 million to $300 million in incremental sales. And it doesn't require any heroic math to forecast at Opzelura can approach $1 billion -- let's call it $1.3 billion roughly by 2030.
Now as it relates to competition in the United States, I'm not so much focused on these modest market share shifts that you can see between products on a monthly basis. A few points here. In the first quarter, our share of new patient starts in the United States was 46%. And new patient starts, as you know, our NBRx is sort of the future, it's growth. TRx is tell you a lot about the base in the past. But when you're really monitoring and managing a business, you're focused on that NBRx number. NBRx volume or new patient start volume in the first quarter was up over 30% year-over-year and was at a higher rate than the market. And we had 2 to 4x more new patient starts in the first quarter than any of the other branded topicals.
I think the real key here, and this is true for us as well as anybody else that has a topical is that the use TCIs of is starting to moderate, and there is a shift from TCIs and steroids to these nonsteroidal branded topicals. And you see that month-to-month and quarter-to-quarter. I think the benefit we have is Opzelura is superior in terms of skin clearance and itch relief relative to a TCI. And it is a better long-term option than steroid. I think the product is set up perfectly over the next 5 years, and we're in a very, very strong position, and you have the benefit of operating in a market where there's a real tailwind, and that is the move away from steroids and TCIs. I think that probably covers it. I think as it relates to Povo, I think that's upside. The fact that we are able in both vitiligo and in potentially HS to offer a complete treatment solution topical to oral, that's how I think about it. Thanks for the question.
Next question today is coming from Ren Benjamin from Citizens.
Congrats on the quarter. My question is on 058 in the Phase I with the new ASD formulation. Can you talk to us a little bit more about how we should be evaluating those results? And when we see it in the second half, what you're looking for and how we view this and will the deal you made with Prelude and that molecule for which you have an option. When do you guys ultimately make a decision between the 2 and how?
Thank you for the question. So as I mentioned during my prepared remarks, we are now in the clinic with the new formulation, and we're going to have an update for you before the end of the year. What we would love to see here is that with the new formulation, if we achieve the right exposures that our preclinical data predicted were necessary to see an effect that then we will be able to confirm our conviction that inhibiting VC617F in this way with pseudokinase inhibitor, will deliver positive clinical outcomes of patients with MPNs. So that's basically the goal of the program for this year to deliver enough exposures with the new formulation to achieve concentrations that will hit the target hard enough to show clinical outcomes that matter.
Now when it comes to Prelude, we see that as a next-generation program potentially for us. We have internal next-generation programs, and we have an external next generation program, which is a Prelude 1. That's a time-based option. We'll have to make a decision at some point in time. And that data will be compared with the data from our internal programs as well as the data from the LEAD 058, and then we'll make a decision which once we move forward.
Our next question is coming from Mitchell Kapoor from H.C. Wainwright.
This is [indiscernible] on for Mitchell Kapoor. Congratulations again on the data. I was curious about povorcitinib in HP. So where do you expect to be earliest uptake to take place? Would you say in biologic naive patients post biologic failures or patients with specific disease features such as like draining tunnels pain or a high inflammatory burden?
Yes, Mitchell, thanks for the -- or excuse me, [indiscernible] thanks for the question. I'll make a few comments and then Mohamed will add. First of all, I would just step back and say that I think the HS market is tailor-made for an oral. This market is set up for sequencing oral to injectables. And that's something that's been missing. Think about all the value that's been ascribed to orals in the obesity market and povo has the potential to be the first oral anti-inflammatory. We expect to have a broad label, both in the pre- and post-biologic setting, which I think is a real advantage. 70% of our clinical data is in prebiologic patients. As it relates to early uptake, you certainly could envision that patients who are on a biologic right now, 1 of the 17s are TNF who have active disease or aren't achieving pain relief or have some injection fatigue could be an early source of utilization.
And if you think about the size of the biologic market, there's a range out there in terms of the estimates, it's 50,000 to 75,000 patients. If povorcitinib was to get 10% of 50,000 on an annualized basis, you'd have a couple of hundred million dollars in revenue. But I think the most important point here is we expect that we will capture patients at 2 distinct inflection points after an antibiotic before a biologic. And then after a biologic, whether it's a 17 or TNF alpha. And Mohamed right now is working on preparing that launch. So it is completely wired for success.
Mohamed, do you want to add anything?
Yes. Look, I mean, HS, as we know, is a large and growing market and has a significant unmet need. The disease is debilitating. It's characterized by chronic pain, drainage and flares and obviously, highly heterogeneous, right, with multiple cytokines. So when you think about the market, as Bill just described in terms of its size, 300,000 patients in the U.S., 200,000 actively seeking treatment and yet only 50,000 of them are in advanced therapy. So povo is positioned to address this market as the first and only oral treatment with biologic-like efficacy across all of the treatment parameters that are quite debilitating and by competing, like Bill mentioned, in both the pre- and post-biologic setting, povo has the potential to be somewhere between $500 million to $1 billion in peak sales. And I think at launch, you can expect an opportunity to capture patients on both sides of that inflection point.
Our next question today is coming from Srikripa Devarakonda from Truist.
And congrats on the most recent clinical data as well with povo. I have a question on the rux mutant CALR combo with the first-line data that is expected year-end. Can you remind us of data that suggests any synergistic benefit? And given how well ka is entrenched in the myelofibrosis market, if CALR mutant patients are doing well on Jakafi, where do you envision mutant CALR fitting, like is it a combo? Is it -- could it be a switch add-on?
Thank you for the question. So let me offer a couple of points. So let's start with the first part of your question about synergy. Preclinically, we saw additive to synergistic effects combining 989 with Jakafi and CALR mutated models. And I think what's important to remember is, first of all, Jakafi as well as it works and as important as a step forward, it has been in patients with MPNs as particularly in CALR mutated patients, very little, if any, disease modification potential. It controls the symptoms, some of the symptoms of the disease. Obviously, it leads to spleen responses. All those effects are much less in patients with CALR mutations. In fact, if you look at the control arms of the COMFORT study or the MANIFEST study, the SVR35 and Jakafi in CALR-mutated patients is approximately 20%. That's in previously untreated patients. So obviously, there's a need for something better for CALR mutated patients even in first-line MF.
The second part of the question is Jakafi does have a package, which is obviously produces a fair amount of anemia and thrombocytopenia. So what we're looking to do with 989 is fundamentally different. We're looking to restore normal hematopoesis. We're looking to eliminate malignant megakaryocytes from the bone marrow. We're looking to eliminate CD34 positive mutant CALR positive cells from peripheral blood. And as a result of that shift back to normal hematopoiesis, which as we've seen already, translates into improvements in anemia as well as spleen responses and symptom improvement. So when we put this whole package together, we'll show you the data by the end of the year in a larger group of first-line patients, we will have for you a regulatory strategy for 989 in first-line MF. But we think that the effect of 989 and Jakafi are fundamentally different in this patient population.
The next question is coming from Brian Abrahams from RBC Capital Markets.
Sounds like you've made a lot of progress with the 989 subcu form, having completed the healthy volunteer study. So I guess I was wondering if you could maybe tell us about the observations there. And then the scope and dose range that you're going to be testing in this ongoing Phase I study in patients and whether that in and of itself could potentially be bridging or whether you'll need integration of the subcu form into the Phase III?
Thanks for the question, Brian. Pablo?
So the data from the healthy volunteer study, as I mentioned in my remarks, has allowed us now to move very quickly into patients. We're going to test a very broad range of doses. Let me just assure you that they will cover all the potential doses that we're using in Phase III in ET and that we could conceivably use in Phase III in patients with MF. So we will have that covered.
In terms of implementing this in Phase III studies, this is a question of timing, Brian. Speed is really important here. We need to bring this medicine to market for patients with ET and MF as quickly as possible. We will not slow down the AD study. We're probably not going to slow down the second-line MF study to incorporate the subcu, and we'll have a bridging strategy at the back end -- our goal is to incorporate a subcu formulation in the first line MF study. And right now, the plan allows us to do that. We'll provide an update on both before the end of the year.
Our next question today is coming from Jessica Fye from Morgan Stanley.
I had another one on 989. I was hoping you could touch on the potential translatability of the ET design to MF as it relates to starting dose. And I guess really more specifically the potential for an up-titration approach particularly in the context of a potential 6-month primary endpoint where we're presumably going to be looking at SVR35 and TSS50 versus looking for an early platelet response like in ET?
Thank you for the question, Jess. So the journey in MF is just a little bit earlier. We need to spend a little bit more time with FDA discussing the design of the second-line MF study. So I'm going to be a little bit let's open about answering the question in detail. Now I think that the fact that we have an agreement on the potential for -- the potential on the step-up escalation in ET certainly can build -- we can build the framework around that in MF. I think the more important thing in MF to be honest, is to have a constructive dialogue with the agency on the primary endpoint of the study, which we intend to do and for which we have a lot of supporting data.
As I mentioned in an answer to a previous question, 989 is a fundamentally different type of medicine for patients with MF. This is about normalizing hematopoiesis not just a nonspecific inhibition of JAK that leads to some symptom improvement and spleen response. It's about normalizing hematopoiesis. We think that needs to be contemplated into the primary endpoint for the study in MF, and we intend to have that conversation with FDA. Conceivably, we could have the same to address the heterogeneity across the population, we could have a dose escalation step as well. In this case, it could take a little bit longer, but we'll have that conversation with the FDA as at the right time.
Thanks, Jess. Congratulations on the move to Morgan Stanley.
Our next question today -- actually our final question today will be coming from Derek Archila from Wells Fargo.
Congrats on the progress. This one is for Pablo. If you frame the setup for EHA and the update there earlier, but I guess, is the expectation we should see deepening responses in these MF cohorts at the update I just wanted to reconcile the eradication comment that you made.
So it's always -- look, we will have data that continues to show the effect of 989 as a disease-modifying therapy. And that consistently will show that we can continue to eliminate -- dramatically reduce in some patients close to eliminate the malignant population of megakaryocytes in the bone marrow and in peripheral blood. And you should see more of the translational data at EHA.
We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.
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Incyte — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Incyte — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Solides Q1 mit zweistelligem Umsatzwachstum, bestätigter Jahresguidance und mehreren Zulassungs‑ sowie Pipeline‑Katalysatoren für 2026–2027.
Starkes Wachstumsquartal, NDA‑Akzeptanz für povorcitinib, positive Phase‑III‑Vitiligo‑Daten und mehrere späte Phase‑III‑Programme im Fokus.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Gesamtumsatz: $1,27 Mrd (+21% YoY)
- Nettoverkäufe: $1,10 Mrd (+20% YoY)
- Jakafi: $758 Mio (+7% YoY)
- Opzelura: $143 Mio (+20% YoY)
- Hämatologie/Onkologie: $204 Mio (+116% YoY)
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Strategie: Übergang von einem Jakafi‑geprägten Unternehmen zu einem diversifizierten Hem/Onc‑ und Immunologie‑Portfolio durch organisches Wachstum, Launch‑Sequenzierung und BD.
- Führung: Mehrere Top‑Einstellungen (CFO Suky Upadhyay; Pablo Cagnoni als President & Head R&D; Steven Stein als CMO; Mohamed Issa leitet US‑Vertrieb) zur Skalierung.
- Pipelinefokus: Späte Programme (989 mutant CALR, 734 KRAS G12D, CDK2, A90 bis hin zu povorcitinib) sollen durch Registrierungsstudien und EU/US‑Zulassungen Wachstum liefern.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Jahresguidance: Nettoverkäufe $4,77–4,94 Mrd (≈+10–13% YoY), bestätigt.
- Segmentziele: Jakafi $3,22–3,27 Mrd; Opzelura $750–790 Mio; Hämatologie/Onkologie $800–880 Mio.
- Kosten & Marge: GAAP R&D+SG&A $3,495–3,675 Mrd; Cost of sales ≈9% des Net Sales.
- Zeitplan‑Katalysatoren: povorcitinib NDA akzeptiert (HS) und positive Vitiligo‑Phase‑III; Erwartungen auf Genehmigungen/Launches reichen bis Anfang 2027 (Monjuvi, povorcitinib); Jakafi XR potenziell Mitte 2026.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Opzelura vs. Povo: Nachfrage nach Positionierung in Vitiligo/HS; Management sieht komplementäre Nutzung (topisch für niedrige BSA, oral für größere BSA/fortgeschrittene Fälle) und adressierbares Marktpotenzial.
- 989‑Design & EHA: Analysten wollten Details zur frühen Dosissteigerung (Start 750 mg q2w mit Eskalation bis 2.500 mg) und Translationaldaten; Company kündigt ~100 ET‑Patienten und weitere MF‑Kohorten (≈45) beim EHA‑Update an.
- 734‑Sicherheit & Enrollment: Klärung zu Pneumonitis‑Fällen: Programmreview ergab kein eindeutiges Signal, Phase‑III lief weiter; administrative Hold in EU für Phase‑I wurde aufgehoben, Rekrutierung läuft.
⚡ Bottom Line
Incyte zeigt operatives Momentum: zweistellige Q1‑Wachstumsraten, bestätigte Jahresguidance und mehrere regulatorische/klinische Catalysts 2026–2027. Die Aktie bleibt abhängig von Launch‑Execution, Zulassungszeiträumen und den angekündigten späten Studiendaten; das Risiko bleibt in der Umsetzung, die Pipeline reduziert aber die Jakafi‑Abhängigkeit mittelfristig.
Incyte — Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone. My name is Etzer Darout, Senior Biotech Analyst at Barclays. My pleasure to have Incyte joining us today, day 2 of our conference. With me, I have Bill Meury, President and Chief Executive Officer at Incyte. And to my far right, we have Pablo Cagnoni, Head of R&D at Incyte. Welcome to our conference.
Thank you.
Bill, I'm sure most of our listeners are fairly familiar with Incyte, but maybe provide some introductory remarks, maybe some of the key points around the business and the pipeline over 2026.
Yes. I mean we think about Incyte across 3 dimensions or therapeutic areas, hematology, which I would describe as the central identity of the company. We have an emerging solid tumor oncology business that really started to declare itself in 2025 at ESMO with our G12D inhibitor for pancreatic cancer and our TGF-beta/PD-1 for colorectal cancer, which are now in frontline Phase III studies. And then we have an immunology business that is anchored today by a topical JAK inhibitor called Opzelura. We expect to get an approval for povorcitinib at least by the end of 2026, early 2027.
And so in that area, we'll have a topical to oral solution, what I think is an advantage across 3 different immune-mediated skin conditions. We think about the business in 2 parts. We have a core business ex-Jakafi, which by 2030, we expect will be as big as Jakafi. That business in '25 did about $1.2 billion, was up 50% year-over-year.
Maintaining the health of that business is critical to navigating this transition in 2029 when we lose exclusivity for Jakafi. And the other part of the business is our pipeline. And we have 7 assets in development where 80% of our R&D investment is centered on. And those programs are continuing to declare themselves.
And so we take our core business, we layer on our pipeline and the company has the potential to go way beyond Jakafi and essentially set a new high watermark for Incyte. That's how we think about the business. The last point I'd make as it relates to business development, just like in any company, it will be used as a multiplier and to extend or strengthen the core business.
Great. Let's maybe start with Jakafi. And when you think about sort of -- it's a major source of revenue today, as you pointed out, but not sort of the growth engine longer term. When you think about sort of how you would internally measure sort of success maybe post Jakafi, is it about revenue replacement pipeline advancement, margin preservation. How do you think about sort of the bar for success for the replacement, if you will, ultimately of Jakafi?
Sure. It's a good question. We're not looking for a one-for-one replacement on Jakafi. If you really think about what we're solving for, it's top-tier growth post '29 and durable revenue earnings and cash flow, which is to say we want to minimize our LOE exposure. And there are 2 parts to the solution. I mentioned this core business ex-Jakafi. That business has the potential to grow at a 15% to 20% 5-year CAGR. So between now and 2030, it should approach $3 billion to $4 billion. And that is about managing the business on a day-to-day basis at a very detailed level.
Now growth is not linear. What's important in that core business is 4 product launches over the next 12 to 18 months. Jakafi XR, frontline DLBCL for Monjuvi, where we just reported top -- well, not top-line results, but released the results of our study, moderate AD indication for Opzelura in Europe, which will be an important incremental growth driver and then povcitinib.
Those 4 launches are important in terms of continuing to drive our core business. And then as we look at our pipeline, we made a lot of progress in 2025. When we started the year, we had no proof-of-concept data on 989. We had no proof-of-concept data on the G12D inhibitor, our TGF-beta by PD-1 -- we had no Phase III data on povorcitinib or combination data with Niktimvo and Jakafi at least from a safety perspective. We have all of those things now. And so what it means is we have much more visibility into the growth profile of the company in order to go beyond Jakafi.
And we'll measure our success this year, next year and the following year in terms of advancing those programs. But right now, we've fundamentally changed the shape and maturity of the pipeline. And I think it's probably more focused and strategically aligned than ever before. And then like I said, the next part of that equation is always BD, which will again will be targeted and selective and it will be used to extend the core, not looking to fill a revenue gap, looking to build the business into the 2030s that is an all-weather business essentially.
Great. And obviously, one of the areas of focus for Ensign is myeloproliferative neoplasms, right, given your position with Jakafi. You presented some NASH data suggesting benefits across spleen benefits, symptoms, anemia benefits for your mCALR program. And when you think about conversations with regulators across these different endpoints, if you will, what do you think ultimately matters most for patients, where if you think about sort of what a pivotal looks like, where you can really sort of highlight the benefits of like an mCALR program in that population of patients with [ MF ]?
Yes, it's a good question. I'll make a couple of comments and then just turn it over to Pablo to expand. First, I think with the data that we shared at ASH at the end of the year, 2025 in both MF and ET, it's a pretty sizable Phase I program. I think we've answered all the threshold questions on 989, our monoclonal antibody targeting mCALR.
On the ET side, we have a very complete -- a very high complete hematological response with pretty pronounced impact on BAF, so both the clinical and molecular end. And I think that the approval of 989 second-line ET is going to quickly reshape the use of hydroxyurea, which is an imperfect treatment. It's the best they have right now.
On the MF side, whether it's spleen volume reduction, SVR35, symptom relief, TSS50, anemia response. What you saw in that Phase I study is frontline efficacy in a second-line setting. And for hematologists out there, Jakafi has been a remarkable drug, made a big difference in patients' lives, but it's a trade-off treatment. You increase the dose, you control symptoms, but cause anemia. If you don't increase the dose, you avoid the anemia, but you don't control the disease.
And symptom relief is common in the treatment of MF, but molecular response is rare, and we have the potential for both with 989. We're going to be starting Phase III studies. We expect to start Phase III studies in the middle to the end of the year in both ET and MF, and we're currently in interactions with the FDA, and I'll let Pablo make a comment on where we're at.
So our goal, as Bill mentioned, is to start at least 2 Phase III studies this year. We started conversations already with FDA. Those conversations have taken place. And we're finalizing the protocol for the second-line ET study. And the important thing is what aspects are we reaching agreement with FDA.
So we need to agree on the population. This study is going to be in all comers, both type 1, type 2 and non-type 1 type 2 patients. We are reaching agreement with the agency on the dosing strategy. We agree with the comments that have been made that when you see the data that were presented at ASH, it seems like patients with type 1 respond at a lower dose. So we want to take that into account in this study, but we still want to keep on study.
The endpoint -- the primary endpoint is pretty straightforward here. It's going to be some version of complete hematologic response. But what we're trying to do with the agency is 2 things. We're discussing maybe accelerating the readout of the endpoint. The traditional approach has been 52 weeks. And then on the other side, incorporate in some manner, not as a primary endpoint, but in some manner, VAF as an endpoint to just get started with the clinical validation of VAF as an endpoint in patients with MPN.
So those things will be -- I'm confident will be finalized by the end of the month. At the latest, we will present the details of the next earnings call in the second half of April, we'll give you full details of the design of that study.
In the second half of the year, as Bill mentioned, our intention is to start a second-line MF study. Those conversations will take place soon with the agency, but we're finalizing a data package. And then we're making a push to start a first-line MF study, whether that's very late this year or early next year. It's a little bit in flux right now, but we're certainly moving as fast as we can.
And I would be remiss, if I don't comment real quick. The other important aspect of the development plan for 989 is a subcutaneous formulation that's going to enter the clinic this month in healthy volunteers. We're going to then move to patients as soon as possible. And by the second half of the year, probably early -- late third, early fourth quarter, we'll have not only the formulation, but we'll have the device, the subcutaneous device that we intend to use at some point. We're going to incorporate as soon as we can into pivotal trials.
And I think I wanted to talk about the anemia response, particularly in MF. When you think about that as it looks like a differentiator to us relative to sort of what you see with JAK1s. Is it really maybe a commercial story? Or could it be viewed as really just game-changing or transformative, I guess, for the patients that can see that anemia response benefit. How do you think that response gets positioned commercially?
Yes. I would say that I mentioned earlier that hematologists will sometimes describe JAK inhibitors as trade-off treatments. And it's because that anemia is a negative prognostic indicator for survival. In fact, if you look at patients with MF and severe anemia, their median survival is quite a bit shorter than those who have MF without severe anemia. The big difference is we're not just avoiding anemia.
And I think Pablo speaks to this quite eloquently, it's proof of mechanism that not only is 989 shrinking the spleen and improving symptoms, but it's restoring normal bone marrow function and red blood cell production. So I think it's a crystal ball into how 989 works.
I think the community is going to have to look at the totality of the data. It's not just about anemia. It's not just about the conventional endpoints, SVR35 and TSS50. But across the continuum, you have what appears to be a superior treatment to the current standard of care. And I think your comments about anemia are, like I said, really effectively describe the benefit that 989 provides relative to anything else to add Pablo.
I think it's an important distinction, as Bill said, because there are drugs that seem to have some impact on anemia, probably because they're less potent than Jakafi and so they're a little bit less toxic for red cell progenitors. What we showed at ASH is something fundamentally different. As you pointed out, in addition to the spleen shrink as a symptom improvement, we showed that more than 50% had really important improvements in anemia. We're talking about 1.5 gram, 2 grams improvement in hemoglobin over time.
And I think one of the questions that has come up is that because of discontinuation with Jakafi? The answer is no. We've talked about this before. We looked at patients with or without a prior washout and the impact on anemia is the same. And we looked over time and the anemia keeps getting better many months after stopping Jakafi. So this is not discontinuation of Jakafi, which is not to say that stopping Jakafi is not a good thing for the anemia, but the effect we're seeing is not Jakafi discontinuation.
And the other important part of the story is when you look at in detail of what's going on in the bone marrow, we showed that we are shifting back to normal production of red cells. And that is basically one of the key elements of disease modification that we're seeing with 989. The bone marrow is starting to normalize again and starting to make normal red cells again, and that's why hemoglobin goes up.
Great. And maybe on the 058 program, the JAK2V617F, I think in our discussions, there doesn't seem to be questions around sort of mechanism or rationale, maybe more around sort of the formulation and whether or not this formulation can overcome limitations of the prior work. Maybe your thoughts around maybe level of confidence for the new formulation for 058 as you think about being able to kind of show, again, clinical benefit with that program.
Let me start. I am confident on the mechanism. V617F is a driver mutation in these diseases. When you hit driver mutations hard enough, you get positive clinical outcomes. I mean we've seen that over and over the past 25 years.
So the question is, how do we hit it hard enough? 058, we knew entering the clinic, there are a couple of challenges, and we made this very clear. The therapeutic window for 058 is relatively narrow. It's not ideal. We thought it was good enough and still do to achieve what we need to achieve. We knew there was a solubility problem. We put a formulation initially in the clinic that we thought addressed it. It turns out we need something different. We introduced a solid dispersion formulation this quarter, and we will have data by the end of the year.
Based on the healthy volunteer data, I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll get to the exposures that we need to see evidence of clinical activity. Now we have 2 backup plans, one internal. We have backup molecules that we think have improved properties over 058. Those are being advanced as fast as possible.
And as you probably know, we signed an agreement with Prelude last year that gives us access to their V617F inhibitor programs. They are managing those programs. We have an option agreement. If at some point in the future, they share the data with us. If the data looks strong, we have the option to acquire -- fully acquire the program. So that's how we are addressing V617F. I think one or more of these approaches is going to get us what we need.
Maybe switch gears to lymphoma and tafasitamab with the update you provided for the frontline treatment in DLBCL. You mentioned R-CHOP is still very much used in that frontline setting. And I guess, how do you see the role of tafasitamab involving in that frontline setting?
Sure. The goal, as most people know, in frontline DLBCL is cure. 40% of people still don't achieve cure. As you know, that space is evolving. You have R-CHOP, which is just 50% of treatment. You have Polivy and then, of course, at some point in the future of Epkinly or this year, we should know whether or not it has utility in the frontline setting.
We have a strong efficacy signal in terms of PFS. We'll release more data in 2026 in terms of activity in subgroups and a manageable safety and tolerability profile. And so when you think about Monjuvi, think about the community setting, high-risk patients, aren't on our trial, and it simply represents an add-on or intensification strategy.
And to put in perspective for Incyte, if we were to get a modest portion of the frontline DLBCL market, call it, 10% or 15%, we could 2x the sales of Monjuvi on an annualized basis. And so I think it's going to play an important role. We don't need to take over the frontline DLBCL market. The data set that we're going to release in 2026 is a fairly competitive or very competitive data set. We'll submit to the agency in the first half of 2026, and we could have an approval at the end of '26, early '27, give or take.
Great. Maybe the I&I franchise with povorcitinib, you have a couple of important pivotal data points this year. Maybe first in PN, how much better does povo need to be relative to a Dupixent, if you will? And just if you think about sort of level setting expectations around that data set and how that can sort of play out or evolve?
I'll make a first comment and then turn it over to Pablo. I don't see whether it's HS, PN or vitiligo sort of a fight to the death or a market share battle or an either/or. I think what's lacking right now in those conditions is an oral anti-inflammatory. And HS, you can take a topical or systemic antibiotic and they got to jump all the way to an IL-17.
In PN, there's no FDA-approved oral. And I think there's an expectation of the dermatology community as it relates to sort of clearance and itch with all these conditions in PN, I think it was made for JAK inhibitors. And so I don't really look at it versus Nemluvio or versus Dupixent, but get the first FDA-approved oral JAK inhibitor for PN, and that's going to have a meaningful role in the treatment of that condition. I think the same is true in HS. And the same is true in vitiligo. Do you want to add anything?
I'll just add one quick comment on PN. I obviously agree with Bill's comments. I think one of the things that povorcitinib does very well, and we've seen that both in HS and in the Phase II and III and in the Phase II in PN is it works very fast.
When you look at itch, 2/3 of the effect that by about 2 weeks. And if you look at the median time to 4 points or greater itch improvement at the higher doses, that's 19 days. That's a lot faster than Dupi. And when you talk to dermatologists, they will tell you that Dupixent works, but it takes a long time to work, particularly when it comes to itch relief. And that's the key symptom in PN patients.
So I think povo is a great drug for PN. Obviously, we're very optimistic about the vitiligo results that we'll have in the middle of the year. And the speed at which it works, both in HS and PN, I think, are going to be, obviously, in addition to the fact that it's oral is going to be a key difference, I think for patients.
And in vitiligo relative to Opzelura, is it going to be a different patient population, complementary treatment? How do you see those 2 sort of evolving in vitiligo?
Yes, it's a good question. We'll have the only topical to oral backbone. And Opzelura has penetrated a fairly high percentage of the diagnosed and treated vitiligo patients, who have a BSA involvement of less than 5%. But for people with a BSA of greater than 5%, clearly, an oral treatment is more practical than a topical one.
And I think we have an advantage going into vitiligo. We're there now. We, of course, have the topical, assuming the data in Phase III are convincing, I think we'll expand that market in terms of diagnosed and treated because you have an oral versus a topical.
Maybe quickly on the TGF-beta PD-1 bispecific program, moving into a pivotal study in colorectal cancer. I think that was a bit of a surprise, if you will, to jump from Phase I to Phase III. Maybe again, talk about sort of what we could see from a differentiation or just data update that can maybe give us more confidence around sort of the pivotal plan around the molecule?
Please go ahead.
So I agree that historically, you sometimes take an intermediate step. The reason why we did this, when you look at the Phase I data, there's a couple of things that are unique. #1, we treated 100 with MSS colorectal cancer. I mean this is not the usual small 12-patient data set that -- so the point estimate for the response rate in that population, I think, is a pretty solid number, which is about 15%, including a lot of patients with liver metastases.
And again, this is third, fourth-line MSS colorectal. When you compare that with every other piece of data published with PD-1, PD-L1 inhibitors, pembro, nivo, atezo, the response rate to those agents is 0, not low, it's 0. There are no responders. And even if you look at the recent combinations with novel CTLA-4 inhibitors in addition to PD-1s, they've seen responses, but none in patients with liver metastases. We have about half of our responders have liver mets.
So that's the strength of the data. We think we have a drug in this population of patients. We combined with chemotherapy with FOLFOXbev, and we showed that the safety is there, they're well tolerated together. So then the question came, is there enough substance here to initiate a pivotal trial? When you look at the history of development of PD-1 inhibitors over the past 15 years, you'll see that a number of times that they have response rate of single agents in the low -- in the single digits to low teens.
When combined with chemotherapy in early lines of therapy, that has delivered about 8 or 9 different approvals. That's the path we're following. We think that the strength of the single-agent responses we've seen in late line, combined with chemotherapy in first line will deliver a positive trial. So at the end of last year, we initiated the study. The study is now accruing patients. And we will provide an update on the data set in combination with chemotherapy towards the middle of this year, just to give you more clarity what we've seen.
And when you think about portfolio construction, the company is going to take some calculated risks. If we're right, it's transformational. If we're wrong, we haven't bet the farm. I think Pablo's point about an intermediate step, given the breadth and depth of the Phase I data set, it made a lot more sense in this case to go into Phase III.
Great. Just maybe lastly on the KRAS program. The early data suggests meaningful activity. How are you thinking about sort of maybe going into maybe earlier line settings, particularly, where you may see lower tumor burden for those patients? How are you thinking about that?
So the data that we showed, as you point out, is a single agent second, third line. We also showed early data in combination with chemotherapy, ASCO GI, showing that we can combine our G12D inhibitor with both main types of chemotherapy in first-line pancreatic cancer, Genmab and FOLFIRINOX. So that's been established.
On the basis of that, we are initiating a Phase III trial in first-line pancreatic. We think that is the most important indication. We obviously are in a race with some competitors are going the same path, and we need to get there as fast as possible. We'll provide an update on that data in the second half of the year, again, just to give you clarity what we're seeing in terms of the combination with chemotherapy. At the same time, we're discussing internally what other indications should we prosecute with the 12D.
And I think you alluded to much earlier lines like adjuvant therapy and perhaps other combinations. We're doing a lot of that background work, and you should expect an update on how we expand this program in the second half of the year.
Great. Bill, Pablo, thank you for joining us, for your participation. And hopefully, you enjoyed the rest of the conference.
Thank you very much.
Thank you very much.
Thank you to our listeners as well. We'll be back shortly with our next session.
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Incyte — Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
Incyte — Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: Incyte positioniert sich als Drehscheibe aus Hämatologie (Kern), soliden Tumoren und Immunologie; das Portfolio hat 2025/2026 mehrere Proof‑of‑Concepts geliefert und erlaubt jetzt beschleunigte Phase‑III‑Programme.
- Finanzbrücke: Das Kerngeschäft ex‑Jakafi soll durch vier anstehende Launches und organisches Wachstum (Ziel: 15–20% 5‑Jahres‑CAGR) bis 2030 ~3–4 Mrd. USD erreichen; Jakafi‑Loss‑of‑Exclusivity (LOE) 2029 bleibt Risiko.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- 989 (mCALR): Starke Phase‑I‑Signale inklusive Anämie‑Besserung und molekularer Effekte; Phase‑III‑Starts in ET und MF geplant Mitte bis Ende 2026; s.c.‑Formulierung und Device noch 2026 in Klinik.
- Onkologie: G12D (KRAS) geht in Phase‑III‑Erstlinie Pankreas; TGF‑β/PD‑1 Bispezifikum wurde direkt in eine pivotal kombinatorische Studie bei MSS Kolorektalkarzinom überführt nach ~15% Single‑Agent‑RR in späten Linien.
- 058 / JAK2: Neue Solid‑dispersion‑Formulierung im Quartal; Backup‑Moleküle und Option auf Prelude‑Programme als Absicherung.
🔍 Neue Informationen
- Timelines: Monjuvi (Tafasitamab) Submission H1 2026, mögliche Zulassung Ende 2026/Anfang 2027; Povorcitinib (oral) erwartet Zulassung Ende 2026/Früh 2027 laut Management.
- Datenfahrplan: Mehrere Mid‑Year/2H2026‑Updates angekündigt; 058 Expositionsdaten und Substanzreadouts bis Jahresende geplant.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Jakafi‑Ersatz: Wie misst man Erfolg? Management: kein 1:1, Ziel ist nachhaltiges Umsatz‑/Cash‑Wachstum; Kernportfolio ex‑Jakafi soll 15–20% CAGR liefern.
- Regulatorik 989: FDA‑Dialog läuft; primärer Endpunkt soll Complete Hematologic Response sein, Variant Allele Frequency (VAF) als explorativer Parameter diskutiert.
- Formulierungsrisiko: 058‑Frage nach erreichbaren Expositionen beantwortet mit solid‑dispersion‑Daten (Ende Jahr) plus internen Backups und Prelude‑Option.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Incyte hat sein Pipeline‑Risiko deutlich reduziert und mehrere potenzielle Werttreiber (989, G12D, TGF‑β/PD‑1, povorcitinib) mit klaren near‑term‑Katalysatoren; das Kerngeschäft ex‑Jakafi liefert Zeit und Cash. Hauptrisiken bleiben klinische/zulassungs‑Ausgänge, Formulierungs‑execution und intensiver Wettbewerb.
Incyte — Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone. I'm Andy Berens, senior biotech analyst at Leerink Partners on day 2 of our Global Healthcare Conference in Miami. We're very happy to have with us Incyte. We have Pablo and Bill. Thank you, gentlemen, for joining us.
Thank you for having us.
It's good to be here.
Yes. It's beautiful weather. Why don't we start? I mean, obviously, I think a lot of people know Incyte, but maybe just a general overview. I mean, you assumed the helm recently, and maybe we could talk a little bit about how the company, what's changed and what's remained the same, I guess, since you joined.
Sure. We're focused on the company against, I think, 3 dimensions. There's a core business ex Jakafi that we estimate over the next 5 years has the potential to reach about $3 billion to $4 billion in sales. So our core business ex Jakafi, which is all FDA-approved marketed products, should be as big as Jakafi by 2030. That's important. And that namely is Opzelura, Niktimvo, Monjuvi. And then we also put in there XR and povorcitinib, which will be approved over the next 12 months. That's sort of priority #1.
Then of course, we have a pipeline of 7 assets where about 80% of our R&D investment is focused. It's in hematology, oncology and immunology. We have 14 clinical studies that will be underway in 2026 against these 7 compounds and that, of course, builds the next growth phase for Incyte, and we'll continue to progress these programs in '26 and beyond. And more and more, I think there's visibility into what the potential of that pipeline will be. It hasn't completely declared itself yet.
But on an unadjusted basis, that pipeline has the potential of 2 to 3x our top line sales unadjusted. And then the third dimension is business development, which like at any company, will play a role in supplementing our growth and extending the core franchise. And that's how we think about the business. That's how strategic operational and financial decisions are made against those 3 areas.
Okay. Why don't we start, I guess, with Jakafi, and then I think we'll probably very quickly shift to the pipeline and things in development that you mentioned. But Jakafi has been a huge success for Incyte. There have been other JAK inhibitors for a while. There were concerns about competition. You have an XR formulation. You have other compounds that are -- we'll talk about in the pipeline in myelofibrosis and myeloid diseases. But how should we think about Jakafi over the next several years importance to the company and the investment thesis?
Yes, it's a good question. In 2025, it was up just around 10% year-over-year. Keeping it healthy is a priority because it's a funding vehicle for the new product launches and for the pipeline. It's got 3 indications, as you know, MF, PV and GVHD. All of 3 are growing. Our focus right now is maintaining a mid-single-digit growth rate on Jakafi between now and the end of 2028. We'll launch Jakafi XR in the middle of this year, and that will preserve a portion of the Jakafi revenue after it loses exclusivity.
In terms of conversions, and Andy, you know these models, you can assume based on analogs that we could convert about 15% to 30% of Jakafi. I'd like to use a sort of point estimate that's just below the midpoint of about 20%, which means we could preserve about $0.75 billion in Jakafi as we go through the LOE. And then, of course, the more important piece of our whole franchise as it relates to MPNs is in 989, the monoclonal antibody.
Okay. Yes, we'll definitely talk about that one. I just want to kind of get there because I know when we start talking about it, there's a lot to talk about. In terms of pricing, how should we think about pricing for Jakafi going forward?
Yes. We -- the company has done an exceptional job of managing gross to net and the average selling price for Jakafi. It's largely a Medicare Part D product as well as there's some 340B there. It's a relatively stable environment with the exception of migration of the 340B program, which can have an impact on every company's average selling price. I think we have it fairly well managed.
As it relates to XR, it should be in the parity ZIP code. In order to get XR put on formulary, we're going to have to set a price that makes sense, most importantly, for PBMs and health plans and at the same time, makes sense for Incyte. And I think there's a price point that is going to be agreeable to the PBMs and the health plans.
The key thing is to make sure that out-of-pocket costs for patients are not changed and that the net cost of the plan is not higher with XR than it is for IR. It will take us about 6 to 12 months to get formulary coverage. And then most of '27 will be about conversion. The second half of '26 when we launch will be about formulary coverage.
Okay. Well, like I said, Jakafi has been very, very successful. It's been the foundation the company has been built on and generated tremendous free cash flow. One of the things that Jakafi was successful at was you basically defined the regulatory goalposts for myelofibrosis with the SVR35, the splenic volume reduction and then also TSS50, which is a measure of quality of life and symptom improvement. So how difficult is it to then come along? A lot of companies have tried with other compounds to beat Jakafi at those 2 endpoints were essentially created for the molecule.
Specifically today, compounds that are looking to enter the MF space you're talking about?
Yes.
I think when you look at other JAK inhibitors that are out there or other mechanisms that are in development that could be introduced, I think they can be important treatments, but they're really tools for subpopulations, I think more niche in nature and refitting around the margins. I don't believe that there's going to be anything that disrupts the standard of care. In this case, Jakafi over the next couple to several years. I think that's how I see the competitive landscape.
Okay. And your program, so you've got several targeting different subgroups. We'll talk about the CALR. Do you think that those interventions can be Jakafi in symptom improvement and splenic reduction?
I think you have to look at the totality of the evidence when you look -- you're talking about 989 our targeted treatment.
Yes, yes.
And there are both clinical and molecular endpoints that matter in this whole equation. If you look at the data that we produced in Phase I in the second-line setting with 989 in both ET and in MF, it looks like first-line efficacy in a second-line study. That's whether you're talking about conventional endpoints like the SVR35, TSS50 or anemia response when you're talking MF, when you look at the results for 989 in the ET population in terms of complete hematological response or VAF reductions, that is a superior profile on paper to anything that's out there today, including Jakafi.
And if we could replicate the results from the Phase I study in Phase III in both ET and MF, there's a potential for a real changing of the guard in the treatment of both those MPNs. We'll start those Phase III studies this year, midyear and then end of the year. And I think the key piece about Jakafi, Jakafi is an important product and made a big difference in patients' lives. It's a quality of life drug, makes people feel better, but it's also a trade-off product. If you increase the dose to control the symptoms, you can cause anemia. If you keep the dose low, you avoid the anemia, but you don't control the symptoms.
On the ET side of the house with hydroxyurea, which is decades old, there hasn't been a change in the standard of care there. It's also sort of a product that requires a trade-off. Most patients with hydroxyurea can't get to 1,000 milligrams a day, which is dose needed, particularly for patients with high platelet counts to control the condition. I think 989 solves the trade-off with both the standard of care in MF, Jakafi and the standard of care in ET, which is hydroxyurea.
Okay. So why don't we pivot and start diving into 989 and the CALR pathway? What is the role of CALR in MF and ET?
I mean I think in the long run or not even long, in the medium term, our goal is to establish molecule-targeted therapies as a standard of care across all NPNs, Andy. We're starting with ET and MF with 989, which is, as you pointed out, a CALR antibody. And the data that we showed last year in 2 meetings and more recently at ASH clearly shows not only there is an improvement in clinical endpoints, which is what's going to matter for regulatory purposes and what matter to patients on a daily basis, as Bill mentioned, spleen reduction, improvement in symptoms and perhaps more distinct compared with other available therapies, the improvement in anemia that we saw, which was pretty dramatic in over 50% of the patients.
As important as that is, I think the other bucket that is really important is the translational data shows very clearly that 989 is eradicating the disease. It's a molecular targeted therapy eradicating cells that have the driver mutation. We saw that in the bone marrow reduction of mutated karyocytes. We saw that in peripheral blood with the elimination of CD34 positive CALR positive cells. And we see that in the progressive VAF reductions more dramatic so far in ET, but also present in MF.
So the way disease -- the word disease modification gets a little bit overused, but I think what we're seeing is truly disease modification in the sense that 989 can selectively eradicate the burden of disease in patients with ET and MF. I think that's the most important way to look at it in the long run because I think in the long run, that will translate in all kinds of benefits for patients even beyond what we've seen so far in terms of spleen reduction, symptom improvement and anemia improvement.
And Pablo, do you want to comment on the frequency of the mutations?
Yes. So the CALR, which was described, as you know, in 2013, is present in about 25% of patients with ET and about 35% of patients with MF. Now we need to spend a minute on this type 1, non-type 1 story. Type 1 is very clear. That happens probably in about 55% of those mutated patients with ET, maybe 55% to 60%. In MF, we think that frequency is higher. It's probably 65% to maybe upwards to 70%. Those are non-type 1.
The best way to characterize, and there's a small group that is type 2, and then there's a group that is non-type 1, non-type 2. And that is a very heterogeneous group of patients that has characteristics, some of those non-type 1, non-type 2 look more than type 1, some are non-type 2. So it's not as straightforward. I'm now for short, I call them type 1 and non-type 1 just because it's simpler. And the important part is, I think the type 1 is about 65% to 70% of MF and about 55% in ET.
Okay. And the difference between type 1 and type 2 and ET versus MF in terms of what we've seen, and we'll talk about the data with 989 and maybe we can talk about it now if you want. But it seems like there is a difference in activity targeting CALR and why would that be?
So 989, which is our first entry into the space, we've known from the beginning has different affinity for type 1 mutations than non-type 1, specifically type 2 in this case. So we knew there will be a difference in dosing. And we think largely that difference in affinity can be addressed with difference in dosing, but just increasing the dose. That's not to say that the efficacy in non-type 1 will be identical to type 1, but we can get pretty close simply by increasing the dose, which is what we intend to do in pivotal trials.
We are discussing -- we're in the middle of conversations with the FDA, and we're discussing a dosing strategy that we think will in part address this difference in affinity. I think it's important to note also that by the time of our quarterly call in April, we will have clarity and we'll be able to provide clarity on the design of the first Phase III trial in ET, which will be in second-line ET when it comes to population, which we intend to enroll all comers, dosing strategy in order to be able to address the differential affinity for type 1 and non-type 1 as well as the endpoints, including the incorporation of some molecular endpoints in the study.
Okay. And the endpoint, the molecular endpoints could be a pathway for accelerated approval or you don't know yet?
We think that in ET, based on the conversations we've had with the agency, hematologic response will be the approval endpoint. We intend to incorporate VAF as a molecular endpoint whether it's the hierarchy, we'll disclose that in April, but we think there's a way to incorporate VAF as one of the endpoints in the pivotal trial. The other conversation we're having with the FDA is the timing for the assessment of the primary endpoint where there's 52 weeks, which is what's been used traditionally in ET or it can be done sooner.
Okay. And what do you see when you target CALR, when we talked -- you mentioned the SVR35, the TSS scores. What about bone marrow changes? And you mentioned anemia, too, is improving. But what about some of the bone marrow changes? -- the hallmark of the disease?
What we saw and reported at ASH is there's 3 things that are important for, I would say, we see a very clear and very fast reduction of malignant megakaryocytes in the bone marrow. That's really part of the source of the disease, and they lead to the fibrosis in the bone marrow, which we also see improvement on. We saw improvement in fibrosis in the bone marrow. The second part is in peripheral blood, there's very mature cells in these patients that you don't see in normal population that are malignant CD34-positive progenitors. We saw dramatic reduction in those as well.
The third part is we saw an increase of normal erythropoiesis. So basically, cells that make normal red cells increase in these patients on treatment of 989. And that supports the improvement in anemia. So improvement in anemia is truly because of normalization of hematopoiesis in these patients, normal production of red cells in these patients. And then the fibrosis improvement is also important to note in a subset of patients. So overall, every measure of the disease, it's getting better on patients undergoing treatment of 989, and that's reflected on the spleen shrinkage, on the symptom improvement and the anemia improvement.
Is the fibrosis improvement is just to stop it from happening and then it starts to remodel on its own? Or is there some direct impact on this fibrosis reverse?
So malignant megakaryocytes produce mediator cytokines that basically trigger fibrosis. And by reducing those, I think fibrosis start to improve through remodeling. There's no direct targeting of the fibrosis by 989. It's just the reduction and hopefully, over time, elimination of malignant cells in the bone marrow that then allows the bone marrow to regrow normal hematopoiesis and remodel over time.
Okay. And I think you mentioned before that there's no way -- I mean, the FDA is difficult to biopsy, obviously, the bone marrow and there's inconsistencies because you're only getting a small segment. And there's no modality to measure with imaging the fibrosis yet.
We've continued to -- we're receptive to ideas. We've interacted with a number of institutions that have claimed to have a method that can be reproducible and widely applicable because if you're going to run a worldwide study, you need for this imaging assessments to be done everywhere. We haven't seen it, and I don't think biopsy is reliable enough. I don't think the FDA is going to agree to that.
Besides, I'm very happy if we can incorporate VAF and then as exploratory endpoints, we can have things as megakaryocytes and more important perhaps the peripheral. But those are really time-consuming cumbersome. I think they're very important to understand what the drug does, but they are not necessarily the right regulatory endpoints. I think in the molecular side, I think reduction in VAF might be the most -- the one that's going to be most widely applicable.
How much of a reduction in VAF do you think you need to have to see clinical benefit?
I don't think there is a line. What we saw in the ET trial, which is easier to measure because platelet normalization is such an easy to measure and reproducible marker. There is a clear correlation between degree of VAF reduction and degree of platelet normalization. That is pretty clear in ET. I think in MF, we need more data and more patients because VAF reduction in MF is lower.
Those patients have higher VAF at the beginning. They have lower residual normal hematopoiesis. And since VAF measures a ratio, if the residual hematopoiesis is lower, that ratio takes longer to reverse. So we've seen changes in VAF in MF. It seems to be taking longer than in ET. I think ET is a cleaner story. And in that one, there is a clear correlation between hematologic responses and VAF reduction.
Okay. Can we talk a little bit about ET because it seems to be a less well-defined disease right now. What we hear from physicians is a lot of patients are watch and wait compared to MF. But what's your sense of how these patients are treated now? And how could a CALR agent change that?
Yes. So I think the standard of care first-line ET today is hydroxyurea. I think a lot of patients are intolerant to hydroxyurea. It requires multiple dose adjustments because of the white cell count. I mean, basically, hydroxy is cytotoxic, right? It just happens to kill platelets and white cells. That's why it gets used in ET. Second line is in patients that are intolerant, which is very common or cannot quite maintain an adequate platelet count or they have a thrombotic event on hydroxyurea, the options are anagrelide or interferon and interferons have been developed as well in first line.
I think the important part with interferon is in second-line patients that are post hydroxyurea, the complete hematologic response to interferon is probably under 40%. So it doesn't seem to work very well. And anagrelide is probably under 10%. I'm talking about platelet normalization. So that's what's available, nonspecific therapies that just happen to normalize platelet count in some patients with some safety concerns and some cumbersome dose adjustments. I think what 989 brings to the table is a completely different value proposition. It is the first molecular targeted therapy, not just for ET, but for MPNs as a whole.
It showed very clearly not just platelet reduction, but platelet normalization. What we see in the graph that we presented at ASH is the platelets drop and they -- without those adjustments, they stop dropping once they normalize. The reason for that is 989 is killing the malignant cells and completely sparing the normal megakaryocytes. So then you normalize the platelets and you keep dosing the patients and those platelets don't move from there, don't keep going down. Also, we saw no leukopenia and really no anemia to speak of. So I think it's a different value proposition that would exist. And in general, when you look at hematology, malignant heme the last 25 years, going back to Gleevec, going through CD34 antibody, molecular targeted therapies, when they work, they really take over segments of the market based on that.
I would just add that because I've heard the indolent component of the ET population in the watch and wait group. Patients with a CALR mutation ET, there's about 20,000 of them. You remove watch and wait. They're not in that group. Real-world evidence studies with hydroxyurea, only about 25% to 50% of people get to a complete hematological response. Non-989 makes it to market. Someone has a CALR mutation, is not getting a response with hydroxyurea usually because they can't reach the dose, highly likelihood that they get put on 989.
If you stratify that population just one more level, about 25% of people are resistant to hydroxyurea, which is a negative prognostic indicator. That's about 5,000 patients. They're also going to be immediate candidates for 989. So I think even in a second-line setting, what's likely to happen is the use of hydroxyurea gets completely reshaped. Anyone that doesn't have control or isn't tolerating it because almost 40% of people have Grade 3 AEs would get put on 989. I think it's an underappreciated indication for 989, and it will be the first one.
Okay. And the natural course of the disease, the patients that don't get therapy, what percentage of them progress and then ultimately either get worse with more aggressive disease or end up getting treated?
So look, I think that there's a high-risk population from the beginning, which are patients that are older and they had either a thrombotic or bleeding event. I think the important thing to understand, let me put it this way, Andy, about ET is -- and this is more clear even in CALR-mutated patients. There is a point where this disease starts to progress towards MF. And when that happens, it doesn't happen in everyone, but it's hard to predict who is it going to happen on and when is it going to happen. But it does happen in a big group of patients.
What we're trying to do with 989 in that population and one of the many arguments for using 989 once approved in this population is that you can reset the clock another, let's say, 10 years. So if you're diagnosed with ET and you're in your 60s or 70s and all of a sudden, we add another 10 years to that clock, then ET becomes a solved problem for a very large group of patients just by a very well-tolerated injectable that patients can self-administer at home once the subcu is available, which is something we should discuss. Our subcu development starts this month, and we expect to have a subcu device and formulation ready for pivotal trials in the second half of this year.
Okay. And you also have several other compounds you said in development. You have a TC, but you also have another -- sounds like another MAB too.
Look, our MPN is an area where we're going to continue to innovate and continue to raise the bar of what we can do. We have a T cell engager in the clinic that's going through dose escalation. We'll present data at the appropriate time. We have continued to try to improve on the properties of 989 because we realized that the different affinity for type 1 and non-type 1 was something we could continue to improve even further.
And of course, we have the whole effort in V617F inhibition. We have a lead program in-house. We have a backup program in-house, and we have an external backup of our agreement with Prelude. MPN is an area where we want to bring a molecular targeted therapy for every single patient with these diseases by the end of the decade.
Okay. Can you talk a little bit about the JAK selective program you just mentioned, your internal programs and then the option you have with Prelude?
Our internal program is a pseudokinase inhibitor. 058 is a short name, entered the clinic a little over a year ago. We had some challenges with the original formulation. The solubility of this molecule is not ideal, and we knew that. The initial formulation did not solve the problem. We paused. We switched to another solid dispersion formulation that is entering the clinic. We'll have data later this year with that formulation. If that formulation solves the problem, then we'll proceed as fast as possible with 058.
We have a backup program that we think solves some of the problems of the lead. That is a pre-IND work is ongoing. We'll have more clarity towards the end of the year. Now we're constantly scanning the landscape for great ideas when it comes to molecule targeted therapies in MPNs. And it just so happens that Prelude, we thought had a really interesting idea in a different chemical space. So we basically did an option deal. They are running this program. We're not involved up to a certain point. At that point, we have the option to basically buy the program and bring it in-house. It will be a question of which one of these programs has the best data, but that's an option that we have on the table.
Okay. I know we have a couple of minutes left. We really didn't get deep into the pipeline. But what else in the pipeline would you I mean you have povo coming very shortly commercially probably. Do you want to talk about that a little bit and the time we have left?
Listen, we expect to be launching it in the first quarter of 2027. If we get a priority review, it would be the second half of 2026. You have a 3-indication JAK inhibitor, the first and only for HS initially. AbbVie will be shortly behind us with Rinvoq, probably first and only for prurigo nodularis and then it will be 1 of 3 in vitiligo. The indication for HS is probably the most important right now. That category, that condition is simply lacking in treatment options.
On one hand, you have oral antibiotics or topicals. And then the other, you have IL-17s, and there's no stepping stone in between. We have data both in pre- and post-biologic patients. If you look at HiSCR 50 or HiSCR 75, pain relief, draining tunnels, flare control, the data on povorcitinib are very, very convincing. I think we should be able to capture patients at 2 inflection points in the treatment of HS before a biologic as well as after a biologic.
You got a couple of hundred thousand people out there with HS. Only about 50,000 of them are taking an IL-17. The rest are on all off-label steroids or antibiotics. It will be an important first indication for the drug and important just from the big picture of shoring up our core business ex Jakafi. So when we hit the transition, you have a JAK inhibitor that's producing well over several hundred million dollars in sales and has the potential to be a $1 billion opportunity when you look across the 3 indications.
When we compare it to some of the biologics, what are the attributes? I mean, obviously, it's oral versus IV, but it sounds like there are other attributes to that you think are commercially appealing.
If you ask dermatologists when they look at it, you see biologic efficacy when you look at skin clearance and pain relief. Of course, it's an oral, which patients still prefer over a biologic. The other thing about JAK inhibitors to remember is they work fast. rapid. In other words, if you look at the pain relief in the studies with povo, about 30% of people had a 30% improvement in pain. Half of that benefit came in the first 3 weeks on the drug. And so it's a much more intuitive sequencing approach to go antibiotic, JAK, IL-17.
Now we'll have to deal with policies at the health plans. But if you use psoriasis as an analog, Otezla was a stepping stone before an IL-23. And I think in this case, povo has better efficacy on a relative basis than, for example, Otezla did versus the IL-23s. I think there's a real opportunity here. There's certainly going to be a lot of trial of the compound given the lack of treatment options in HS right now. This is going to get used.
And we expect data on Opzelura in HS in the fourth quarter, which is not really on a lot of radars right now, but we'll have a topical to oral backbone for the treatment of HS if we can get positive results with Opzelura and povo approved by the FDA. So I think we have a competitive advantage going into that category.
Okay. Let me see if there's any questions from the audience before we wrap up the session. Anybody have a question for Pablo or Bill? All right. Well, thanks, gentlemen. Congrats on all the progress.
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Incyte — Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Incyte — Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2026
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Strategie: Management skizziert drei Dimensionen: Kerngeschäft ex‑Jakafi, eine fokussierte Pipeline (7 Assets, 14 Studien in 2026) und gezielte M&A/Optionen zur Ergänzung.
- Leadasset: 989 (CALR‑Antikörper) wird als potenziell krankheitsmodifizierend beschrieben und könnte Standard-of‑Care in ET/MF verändern.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Jakafi: Ziel: mittlere einstellige Wachstumsrate bis 2028; XR‑Formulierung Mitte 2026, Management rechnet mit ~20% Konversion (≈$0,75 Mrd. erhalten).
- 989: Phase‑III‑Start Mitte/Ende 2026; primärer Ansatz in sekundärer ET, hämatologische Response als Zulassungsendpunkt, VAF (Variant Allele Frequency) als molekularer Endpunkt vorgesehen; Subkutandevelopment für H2 2026.
- Povorcitinib (povo): Zielstart Q1 2027; Priority‑Review könnte H2 2026 ermöglichen; HS (hidradenitis suppurativa) als wichtiges erstes Indikationsfeld mit großem Marktpotenzial.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Phase‑III‑Timing: Management kündigt Beginn der ersten Phase‑III‑Studien für 989 noch in diesem Jahr (mid‑/late‑year) an; Detaildesign soll im Quartals‑Call im April offengelegt werden.
- Subkutane Formulierung: Entwicklung für 989 startet diesen Monat; Gerät/Formulierung für Zulassungsstudien soll in H2 2026 bereitstehen.
- 058‑Programm: Neue Formulierung läuft ins klinische Programm; Daten später 2026 entscheiden über Weiterführung.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Jakafi‑Preis/Netto: Nachfrage zu Pricing, Gross‑to‑Net und 340B‑Effekten; Management betont stabilen ASP (average selling price) und formulary‑Verhandlungen, antwortete aber ohne konkrete Preisangaben.
- 989‑Dosing & FDA: Kritische Fragen zur unterschiedlichen Affinität für CALR‑Typen (Type‑1 vs non‑Type‑1); Management führt Gespräche mit FDA über Dosisstrategie, Endpunkte (inkl. VAF) und Timing der Primäranalyse.
- Wirksamkeit vs. Standard: Nachfrage, ob 989 Jakafi oder Hydroxyurea ersetzen kann; Management sieht realistische Chance auf Übernahme in bestimmten Subpopulationen, betont jedoch regulatorische und Replikations‑Risiken.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bewertung: Kurzfristig stabilisiert Jakafi (XR) und spätere Launches (povo) Umsatzbasis; mittel‑ bis langfristig bietet 989 das größte Upside, falls Phase‑III die Phase‑I‑Signale repliziert. Wichtige Risiken: Zulassungsendpunkte, Dosisdifferenzen zwischen CALR‑Subtypen, Formulierungsfragen bei 058 und kommerzielle Formularierungslaufzeiten.
Incyte — TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
1. Question Answer
All right. Welcome back to the 46th Annual TD Cowen Healthcare Conference. Really happy to have the next session here with -- I'm Marc Frahm from the biotech team here at TD Cowen, and we're really happy to have the next session, Incyte with Bill Meury, the CEO, to join.
Maybe just start off with, Bill, do you want to just give a kind of high-level kind of status update of the company? What do you think the kind of key value creation events for investors will be over the next 12 to 24 months?
Yes, sure. Thanks, Marc. I think about the business in three parts. Part one is we're focused on our core business ex Jakafi, which in 2025 finished at about $1.2 billion. We estimate by the end of '26, it could approach about $1.7 billion.
When you go out to 2030, we have a target for that business of $3 billion to $4 billion, which is to say that the core business ex Jakafi has the potential to be as big as Jakafi is today by 2030. It replaces it. Key to that growth will be products like Opzelura, Niktimvo, Monjuvi, povorcitinib and XR, namely. That's where the majority of our growth over the next 5 years will come from.
Second, of course, is pipeline execution. We have 7 products that are in late stages of development. That's where 80% of our R&D investment is in those 7 products. On an unadjusted basis, we estimate peak sales for that group of 7 products could be roughly $10 billion unadjusted.
Now not all of them are going to work. But I think the point here is we have much more visibility into the growth profile of our pipeline at the end of '25, beginning of '26 than we did at the start of 2025.
And so for example, we had no proof-of-concept data on 989. We had no proof-of-concept data on G12D for pancreatic cancer or TGF-beta by PD-1 for colorectal cancer. We had no Phase III data on povorcitinib. We had no frontline data in DLBCL with Monjuvi, and we had no combination data of Niktimvo and Jakafi from a safety set.
We have all of that now. We have more work to do in 2026, of course, and beyond. But I think the depth and maturity of our pipeline is stronger today than it was a year ago.
And then third is business development. And we'll use business development like any company to strengthen our core. We're not going to use business development to fill a revenue gap, but rather to create long-duration revenue earnings and cash flow.
And those are the three priorities of the company. We'll, of course, manage our cost base very carefully, both R&D and SG&A. In 2026, our SG&A is -- it's only going to be up about 4%, with G&A down 10%. And R&D, of course, is where we're leaning into to build a pathway to growth in that post-2030 period.
Okay. Great. Thanks for that overview. Maybe we'll start on the commercial side. The biggest longer-duration asset for you guys right now in terms of sales is Opzelura and your background on the commercial side. So now that you've been in the job for 6 months.
What -- as you've kind of looked into that franchise and looking forward, what has insight gotten right about the commercial effort? What needs to be tweaked and is being tweaked now? I think we saw a little -- one piece of it with there's some pricing concessions this year, but what else beyond that?
Yes, it's a good question. Fundamentally, that business is in a good position. And what I mean by that is strong demand, 250,000 patients take Opzelura annually in the United States. Prescription volume is going to be up 15% to 20% year-over-year. There's 20,000 writers of Opzelura, and you have exceptional formulary coverage.
What you're going to see in '26 is we'll expand the size of the target audience, which means we'll expand our sales force to drive growth of Opzelura at some point in 2026. We'll call on more physicians. That's number one.
Second, the NPPA specialty in atopic dermatitis is very important. That segment, it accounts for roughly 40% of all prescriptions. It will be bigger than dermatology in AD probably this year. And it's also the fastest growing. And so we'll relaunch or launch a new program to NPs and PAs, dedicated sales, dedicated MSLs, dedicated peer-to-peer program, dedicated materials. And I think that focuses us on the first priority, which is continue to drive AD vitiligo use in the United States with Opzelura, all right?
I think the other thing is the moderate AD indication in Europe is going to be a real value driver. And just to sort of put it in perspective, first of all, in the moderate AD study, the drug had an EASI50 rate of 70%. And there was itch relief in a large percentage of patients at 8 weeks. In fact, its relief in some patients, about 10% to 15% of patients was in 15 minutes. It's a really, really good topical antibiotic, topical anti-inflammatory.
In Europe, we did $130 million with vitiligo. We didn't have the AD indication. AD is 3 to 5x the vitiligo market. And so you could see revenue from Opzelura in Europe in AD approaching $200 million to $300 million over the next several years.
And then the last point I'd make about Opzelura is we expect to have data on the use of Opzelura and HS at the end of 2026. An indication for HS for Opzelura could be as big as both AD or vitiligo is in the United States, which is a couple to $300 million.
And then one of the guidance pieces was on the other oncology portfolio, which implied about 45% growth year-over-year in '26 versus '25. As we look at that kind of bucket of assets, what -- is there an asset in there that's like that's the one investors should pay attention to that's the real growth asset, that's going to drive it over the longer term?
Yes, it's a good question. I would focus on 2, and that is Monjuvi and Niktimvo. The majority of the growth in that business in '26 and even beyond is going to come from Monjuvi and Niktimvo.
As it relates to Monjuvi, we have a 2-indication drug today, CD19. We will release data in the second half of the year on our frontline DLBCL study. A modest share of the frontline DLBCL market because you do have Polivy out there and you have EPKINLY, there'll be others, but a modest share for Incyte, call it, 10% would double the annualized sales of Monjuvi today.
And so frontline DLBCL will be an important approval and new indication. Think community setting, think unfit patients, think a simple add-on to R-CHOP. And R-CHOP is still 50% of the frontline DLBCL market.
As it relates to Niktimvo, it's year 2, arguably the most important year in a launch. I'd say even more important than year 1, off to a very, very good start. We have to continue to expand use, not just in fourth line, but in third line.
Over the longer term, demonstrating efficacy on top of Jakafi or a steroid will be important to the long-term peak sales potential of Niktimvo. And so when you think about that other oncology business, that -- those are the two products that I focus on.
Okay. Just for the first-line DLBCL indication, is the marketing angle mostly going to be kind of the ease of use and convenience for the -- for -- particularly in some of the settings of community? Or is it a real efficacy differentiation versus some of the others besides R-CHOP that obviously you've beaten on a top line basis?
Yes, it's a good -- I think it's both. Here's what we know. We have a hazard ratio of 0.75. You'll see when we release the data of Monjuvi plus R-CHOP versus R-CHOP what the PFS percentages look like and the delta versus R-CHOP. And we'll also show activity in subgroups, ABC and GCB. And I think there is a benefit risk proposition for Monjuvi in frontline DLBCL in the community setting for certain patients that is as compelling as the alternatives.
And all we need to do to move the needle here is collect sort of as a base case, an incremental $200 million to $300 million in sales. It could be bigger. As you know, that frontline market is large. The unmet need there is cure, but only 40% of people are cured with current treatments. And so I think when you see the data in the second half of 2026, you'll look. And the totality of the evidence is fairly compelling.
But as you know, that landscape over the past couple of years has really started to evolve. And so I think we're focused on where the drug will most likely be used. And I think for a lot of people, it's going to be a simple intensification strategy tafa when on top of R-CHOP versus a replacement, which is what you do with Polivy or when you use a T cell engager, that benefit risk equation changes a bit.
Okay. And then XR should be launching later this year. I guess maybe can you walk through what the kind of value proposition is for that franchise versus traditional Jakafi, maybe from here to '28, '29 when the LOE happens? But then what's the value proposition to keep using it on the back end of the LOE?
Yes, it's a good question. You have a more convenient form of the standard of care. So just start with that. And I think that's clear. Once-a-day formulations and providers know this, payers know, will usually deliver an adherence gain of 15% to 25%, right? So there's the second sort of element of the proposition. Third, the price point is going to be economical for providers, for patients and ultimately for payers.
Most important with this XR is, one, generate demand; two, we'll activate consumers. We have a database of Jakafi users that is sizable that we've built over the past decade plus. Then you have to get formulary coverage and secure enough formulary coverage that moving patients from IR to XR is frictionless. And we will find a price point that makes sense for PBMs, payers and one that makes sense for Incyte.
Now this is a sprint. There's 2.5 years between now and when we lose exclusivity on Jakafi, and we're targeting a conversion rate in the range of about 15% to 20%. I focus just below the midpoint and call it 20%. When generic forms of Jakafi are available, there is going to be some headwinds on XR.
At that point, Incyte is not chasing the XR number. XR is simply a bridge in the 2030 period. And when you hit that period, we should be launching several products from the pipeline, which will shorten the duration of this trough and build essentially a glide path to growth. And certain formularies or certainly payers will keep XR and formulary. Others will want a discount. Others will remove it from formulary. I think all we need to do is get it to about 20%, and it gives us the bridge that we need.
And that's probably a good bridge now to talk about CALR. And 989, so obviously, we saw some data late in the year presented at ASH. But I guess what are, in your view, the questions that have clearly already been answered by 989? And what are the big remaining questions that you need to answer this year and beyond with that asset?
Yes. I think the threshold questions in terms of 989 utility in ET and MF have been answered. In ET, we have a complete hematological response of roughly just over 80%. real-world evidence data with hydroxyurea, which is the standard of care, the CHR is like 25% to 50%.
And unlike hydroxyurea, which has 7 warnings and precautions, 40% of people have Grade 3 AEs, the benefit risk profile of 989 is compelling. And I think the availability of it, even in the second line, will reshape the use of hydroxyurea. Anyone that's not getting complete hematological response who's in their 50s, going to live with the disease for 30 years is likely to get a targeted treatment. That's ET.
On the MF side, you know the data from ASH. We have an SVR35 that's roughly 33%, TSS 50 of 40% anemia response in 50% of people in a second-line setting. VAF reductions will take more time in MF because it's more complicated biology than ET.
Right now, the focus is complete our interactions with the FDA. By the first quarter earnings call, I would expect we'll be able to provide clarity on the Phase III program in ET second line. We've been having constructive interactions. The goals are still the same, type 1, non-type 1. If it's not 1 dose, it's 2 doses, that's not an issue. Both clinical and molecular endpoints, we're still talking about the length of the study, conventional is 52 weeks. That's most important.
We'll have that same conversation with the FDA on MF in the middle of the year. And I would expect by the third quarter call, which will be sometime in October, we'll provide more clarity on starting our second-line study in MF. Those are -- that is the regulatory milestones.
In terms of frontline, which is very, very important, I do believe there's a feasible path to frontline in MF, whether it's frontline mono or frontline combo, we will share data in the second half of the year, towards the end of the year on 989 in a frontline setting, both mono and combination with the expectation that if those data stand up, we could be starting a frontline study sometime in early 2027.
Okay. I think before we get to that presentation at the end of the year, there's also planned a more Q2 midyear update on the second-line patients. Maybe you want to frame that, the size and scope of that presentation. And I think you were able to get a few Jakafi ineligible people in back end of the ASH presentation. Are there more of those patients coming, which maybe gets a little bit of a flavor of what to expect at ASH?
Yes. So the data update for middle of the year with 989 second line, we had roughly 36 patients at the ASH in the -- at 24 weeks evaluable for efficacy. That number could be between 40 and 50, let's call it 45 patients. In the ET, I believe we had -- there were about 30 patients that were evaluable for efficacy. That number is going to be probably almost twice that, right? I'm just talking about at week 24.
As it relates to the frontline data, which was effectively a frontline population, JAK-naive, we're focused on the true frontline mono and combo study. And so you'll get a few more patients in that. What I would say about it is definitely a strong signal of efficacy.
It -- as you know, though, it's mathematically fragile. One patient moves across the line and you could move the SVR35, which was 57% in that population by 14 points. I think it was certainly encouraging, but the frontline data that we'll share will be the most important piece.
Okay. And maybe you started to touch on the design question for ET, just dose to address all mutations. How important is it to -- maybe for convenience and ease of prescribing, have one dose even if it means you're kind of overdosing some patients versus really optimizing the dose for the right dose for the right patient?
Yes, it's a good question. I think that one dose is always ideal. I think two doses is not an issue at all. If there was a -- the framework we've been working with, and all of this is subject to discussions with FDA, which are happening right now; if there's a starting dose and then an escalation dose, we'll have a subcu device on the market. I think that makes a great deal of sense for providers. And that is a framework that we're focused on.
Okay. And thinking back to going to frontline, when these trials started, there was this combo approach, particularly for the frontline, a concern that maybe the CALR antibody would take some time to really develop efficacy for patients and you'd want the kind of rapid action of Jakafi.
But I mean, given the data we've seen and that there are some fairly rapid responses happening, what's the rationale for that combination still? Is it -- or is it more like, look, this was just going and but -- so we'll see, but most likely, it's the monotherapy?
Listen, what you're -- I think what you're describing is an induction and maintenance approach. And in fact, if you ask most hematologists, put aside the regulatory environment and what you have to study how they would use 989, several have said to me, I can envision a world or a future where I'm using Jakafi and 989 together for induction and then maintaining patients with 989 for obvious reasons.
One, it's going to provide spleen shrinkage, symptom relief and improvement in anemia, not just less anemia, which I do think is proof of mechanism. And then, of course, you have the disease-modifying benefits, which clearly are going to take a little bit more time in MF.
Our view is given the results we produced in a heavily treated population, second line. I mean I remind people that the average spleen volume size for people in that study was [ 23 50 ], right, which is almost the same spleen volume as the COMFORT-I and II trials, and we had an SVR35 of about 25%, a small number of people. It seems to me that you're probably going to get better results if you take a combination and move it into a pure frontline setting.
And so all the options are on the table right now. When we get the results from our frontline studies, mono combo in the second half of the year, we'll make a decision about exactly how to prosecute this.
Okay. And maybe -- we're starting to get a little close on time. Just we'll turn to ET. We get a lot of questions about the IV formulation and how acceptable that is there or how much it really relies on ultimately getting the subcu of the on-body to work. Just what are your -- is IV a viable formulation if that's ultimately what you need? Or do you absolutely need the subcu?
In this population, I think a subcu is going to be really important. We've already started the healthy volunteer study. Our aim is that within the first 6, 12 months of the launch of 989 for ET, we follow with a subcu device. I think the gold standard for a fast follow IV to subcu was J&J's Darzalex. I think we'll do the exact same thing here.
There is the potential in ET to reach a several thousand patients. There are many patients out there that are not in the watch-and-wait bucket that are not low risk, but are actually high risk, and they don't have complete hematological control and a targeted treatment that's easy to take is going to produce for us a meaningful revenue stream. And I believe the subcu will be available as we continue to move this program forward.
I think investors are used to with subcu like auto-injector pens and stuff, but this is a little bit different with the on-body. You want to talk through kind of the format and what that experience, what do you expect it to be for patients.
Yes. It would -- it's a disc, and it's a very elegant disc. It looks -- the company is an able and it was -- it looks like Apple produced it. It's not a big, clunky device at all. And we believe the admin you fix it on to a part of your body, and we believe the infusion time is going to be roughly 15 minutes.
And so -- and you do it twice a month. Do it 15 minutes, take it off, 2 weeks later, you do it again. If I was -- like I mentioned, if I was 50 years old with ET and was going to live with the disease for 30 years rather than taking hydroxyurea, I'd rather take an infusion every 2 weeks. And I think that's the aim.
Maybe you started to touch on a little bit of how the treatment paradigm may evolve in ET with this drug. Just what is that vision for what ET looks like on the back end of the second-line trial you're reading out? Because you have hydroxyurea, but also potentially in between you starting and finishing that trial, we'll also get bomedemstat data potentially for Merck. Just what does the ET paradigm look like in, call it, 2030 or something?
We have a targeted treatment that has high CHRs and fairly dramatic, deep, rapid VAF reductions. that you'll get more data on VAF with our update in the middle of the year. And I think you'll find those data in ET, which is a pure setting. I think it's a crystal ball into how the drug works on mutant CALR. It gets more complicated, as we know, in MF.
And I don't see a reason or a version of the world where 989 can't become standard of care relative to hydroxyurea or anything else that's out there for both hematological response and molecular response. And I think the control rates with hydroxyurea are very, very low, not because it's not a good cytoreductive agent, but because people can't get to the therapeutic dose of 1,000 milligrams a day.
And what's important to remember is that patients who have CAR and ET have very high platelet levels. like 1 million versus 600,000 or 700,000 with other mutations. And so 989 in a CALR population is going to be, I believe, differentiated relative to other alternatives.
Okay. And is there a first-line opportunity in ET? And what does that drug profile need to look like to really support that?
I do believe there is a first-line opportunity. We're starting second line. And I say that because of the point that we just talked about, which is CALR patients have very high platelet levels, dosing hydroxyurea high enough to control counts is more difficult. And in a first-line study, we may be able to show that in CALR.
That said, I think when a second-line agent -- the second-line study comes out with 989, I think hematologists -- someone said to me the other day, hydroxyurea is what we have, and it's important and it helps patients, but it's the equivalent of Tylenol for a fever.
And he went on to say that ET, while there's a large group of people that are in this watch-and-wait bucket or taking aspirin, there's many people that have gotten a partial response. They have residual symptoms, residual thrombotic risk, residual transformation risk and it's the equivalent of a ticking time bomb.
And so I believe the second-line data will be enough, but I think we're going to still look at whether or not we could do a first-line study.
Okay. And then the other mutation that's quite important in these diseases is the actual JAK2 mutation where you do have an inhibitor there. What is the bar for success? Is there any -- look like for a mutant selective JAK inhibitor? Is there any difference than how we thought about CALR just based on the biology being a little different? Or is it just the same kind of 30-ish percent response rate?
I think the framework, if you have both clinical response like you talked about SVR35, TSS50 and then molecular response, I think the framework, Marc, is the exact same thing as we see for CALR with 617. It's just that if you believe in 989, 617 is twice the size of 989, given the mutation frequency.
And maybe explain how -- you have a couple of different assets in the space. Just how they fit or rights to a couple of different assets in the space? How they fit together?
Sure. We actually have essentially four programs. We have a lead. We have an ASD formulation of the lead to improve solubility, dissolution and bioavailability. We have a backup 617 internally, and then we have the option on Prelude. And there's four horses in the race. And we're prepared to progress as many as we need to in order to solve what we think is not a PD problem, but a PK problem.
In other words, when you look at preclinical data with 617F, the very same models that predicted the utility of 989 in MF and ET also predict utility of 617 in MF, PV and ET. And I think we need to solve this PK problem, whether it's a prelude compound, I'm really impressed with the work that they're doing or whether it's one of our internal programs, we want to get to the finish line sooner than later.
Maybe we are running out of time. So maybe on povo, just so we get a lot of investor pushback of it's another JAK, like aren't they just going to lose out to other JAKs, even if people want to take that mechanism in some of these diseases you're developing? Just what are people missing about povo in your view?
HS is the most challenging dermatological condition you can have. There is no FDA-approved oral treatment for mild -- moderate to severe disease. If you look at the data, whether it's ours or even AbbVies, I don't think it's -- if I'm in a 1 of 2 situation in a market that does really well, that's excellent. It's a multi-cytokine inhibitor. Clearance rates, itch relief, flare control, draining tunnel clearance is as good with a JAK povo as it is with the biologics. It's oral. And the most important thing is it works faster.
What is missing today in HS? There is nothing in the moderate to severe that's oral. You can use an antibiotic, physician will tell you keep your skin clean, all right? And then you have to jump right to an IL-17. I believe there's an opportunity for povo to be positioned in a pre-biologic setting, which would be a natural sequencing from antibiotics, whether they're oral or systemic before you go to an IL-17.
There's, of course, the post-biologic opportunity, which is rather than sequencing through IL-17, you can move to a JAK inhibitor. But our data are very compelling. The most important thing for us right now is complete the NDA review with the FDA, assess the benefit risk, assuming it works in both pre- and post-biologic, we have a broad label. And I think there's a lot of potential there.
And then maybe quickly on G12D, obviously, a competitive space. You're towards the front of it. But how do you win long term? Is it just about being first to market? Do you think 734 is actually a differentiated G12D versus other G12D inhibitors?
Well, as you know, it's an on-off inhibitor, 80x more selective for G12D. And we know that we can combine it with standard-of-care chemo. I think the most important thing for us to do right now with G12D is complete the Phase III, demonstrate a PFS of call it, 9 months, hazard ratio of 0.7 and low grade 3 toxicity. And if we're 1 of 2 in pancreatic cancer, I think we're going to be just fine.
Okay. Unfortunately, that's all the time we have for today. We're already over a minute, so we'll have to stop there. But thanks a lot for joining, Bill. Thanks, everybody, in the room and online.
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Incyte — TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
Incyte — TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
📊 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: Management gliedert Geschäft in drei Säulen: 1) Core ex‑Jakafi (2025: $1,2 Mrd; Ziel Ende 2026 ≈ $1,7 Mrd; 2030 Ziel $3–4 Mrd), 2) Pipeline (7 späte Programme, Peak‑Sales ~ $10 Mrd unadjusted) und 3) Business Development.
- Kosten: 2026 geplant: SG&A +4%, G&A −10%, R&D bleibt Priorität zur Wachstumsfinanzierung.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Opzelura: Starke Basis (≈250.000 US‑Patienten, Rezepte +15–20% YoY). Ausbau Zielärzte; NP/PA‑Programm und europäische moderate‑AD‑Indikation als Mehrwerttreiber.
- Onkologie: Monjuvi und Niktimvo als Hauptwachstumstreiber 2026; Monjuvi‑Frontline DLBCL (HR 0,75) kann mit ~10% Anteil die Verkäufe verdoppeln.
- 989 (CALR): Klarerer Proof‑of‑Concept in ET/MF; Subkutan‑Device geplant; regulatorische Gespräche laufen (ET Phase‑III‑Design zu klären).
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Pipeline‑Reife: Seit Jahresende 2025 deutlich mehr Proof‑of‑Concept und Phase‑III‑Daten (989, G12D, povorcitinib, Monjuvi‑Frontline, Niktimvo‑Kombinationen).
- Kommerzielle Ziele: XR (extended‑release) als Brückenprodukt vor LOE von Jakafi; Zielkonversion ~15–20% innerhalb ~2,5 Jahren.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Opzelura‑Wachstum: Wie stark wirken sich Preiszugeständnisse aus? Management nennt Sales‑Force‑Ausbau und NP/PA‑Programme als Hebel.
- Monjuvi‑Daten: Nachfrage nach Details zur PFS‑/Subgruppenwirkung in Frontline DLBCL und Marktanteilsannahmen (Community‑Use, unfit‑Patienten).
- 989‑Design: Dosisstrategie (ein vs. zwei Dosen), IV vs. Subcu‑Device‑Akzeptanz und Zeitplan für Phase‑III/Start in MF wurden intensiv thematisiert.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Takeaway: Incyte präsentiert eine klare Wachstumsstory jenseits von Jakafi: kurzfristig kommerzielle Hebel (Opzelura, XR), mittelfristig Monjuvi/Niktimvo‑Expansion und langfristig bedeutende Upside‑Optionen aus 989 und weiteren späten Programmen; kritische Meilensteine sind regulatorische Klarheit für 989, Monjuvi‑Frontline‑Daten H2/2026 und kommerzielle Konversionen.
Incyte — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Greetings, and welcome to the Incyte Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2025 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to your host, Alexa Smith, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and welcome to Incyte's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, I encourage everyone to go to the Investors section of our website to find the press release, related financial tables and slides that follow today's discussion. On today's call, I'm joined by Bill and Tom, who will deliver our prepared remarks. Steven, Dave Matteo and Mohammed will also be available for the Q&A portion of today's call. I would like to point out that we will be making forward-looking statements, which are based on our current expectations and beliefs.
These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and our actual results statements to differ materially. I encourage you to consult the risk factors discussed in our SEC filings for additional detail. I will now hand the call over to Bill.
Alexis, thank you, and good morning, everyone. I'll cover 2 topics today. First, I'll give an overview of our performance in 2025 and then I'll turn to our outlook for 2026 and beyond and the steps we're taking with our core business and pipeline to transition Insight. As I touched on at JPM, there are several achievements in 2025 that stand out. First, our business exceeded expectations on 3 levels: total sales, Jakafi sales and our core business sales ex Jakafi Second, we fundamentally changed the shape and maturity of our pipeline. We moved multiple assets from early to late-stage development.
We now have several outlier opportunities for the treatment of MPN and pancreatic cancer, colorectal cancer and HS that have the potential to drive revenue, earnings and cash flow into the next decade. Finally, regulatory applications for Jakafi XR, Opsilora for moderate AD and povacitinib for HS in Europe were submitted on a timely basis. The point here is we have much greater visibility into the potential growth we file of the company now than we did at the start of 2025. Everything we accomplished this past year commercially, scientifically and operationally has created the foundation for an inflection point in '26 and beyond.
Now I'll speak to our performance in '25 and the outlook for '26. Turning to revenue. The business performed exceptionally well this past year. Revenues in the fourth quarter totaled $1.51 billion, up 28% versus the prior year. For full year '25, revenue totaled $5.4 billion, up 21% year-over-year. This was driven by strong commercial performance and an increase in milestone and contract revenue. Net sales in the fourth quarter totaled $1.22 billion, representing a 20% increase versus the prior year. For full year '25, net sales were $4.35 billion, also up 20% year-over-year. exceeding both expectations and our guidance.
Growth was broad-based with nearly every product contributing meaningfully. Focusing on our core business, ex Jakafi sales totaled $1.26 billion, representing over $400 million in growth and a 53% increase versus 2024. OpoloraNictimbo and Monjuvi, with the largest absolute growth contributors. This core business is expected to grow over 30% in '26 and has the potential to grow at a 15% to 20% 5-year CAGR and approach $3 billion to $4 billion by 2030. Now a few comments about the key products, Jakafi, Opselora and our hematology and oncology products.
Starting with Jakafi on Slide 9. Fourth quarter and full year sales exceeded expectations. In the fourth quarter, sales were $828 million, an increase of 7% versus prior year. Full year sales totaled $3.093 billion, representing an 11% increase year-over-year. Jakafi remains an integral part of our business and keeping it healthy is a priority. It continues to serve as a funding source for our pipeline and for future product launches.
A few comments on the fundamentals of this business. First, prescriptions increased 11% in the fourth quarter and 9% for the full year 2025 despite a growing base and competition. Second, demand was up across all 3 indications. TV will be the largest and fastest-growing indication in '26 and with a penetration rate of only 30% versus 6% to 7% and in frontline MF. It should be a reliable and significant source of growth going forward. And finally, formulary coverage for Jakafi remains excellent with near complete coverage across plans.
In '26, we expect net sales to be $3.22 billion to $3.27 billion. Prescriptions are expected to grow at a high single-digit rate, representing mid-single-digit sales growth compared to 2025. In terms of Jakafi XR, we expect to receive an approval and launch in the middle of '26. Given this timing, the second half of the year will be mostly about formulary access and '27 will be focused on conversion. We will share more about our launch plans and future calls. Now I'll turn to Slide 10 for Opel. Net sales in the fourth quarter totaled $207 million, an increase of 28% and full year net sales were $6.78, up 33% versus 2024.
Growth was driven by increased penetration in the U.S. AD and vitiligo markets, where Opsalora prescriptions climbed 24% and 15%, respectively. The pediatric launch for OpsilorAD is off to a strong start in the United States with sales already annualizing around $30 million. both dermatologists and parents are increasingly seeking nonsteroidal options for atopic dermatitis, driven by concerns about long-term steroid use. International sales for Opalora in Vitiligo doubled to $130 million in 2025. In '26, we expect sales of $750 million to $790 million, representing roughly a 15% increase at the midpoint.
This estimate is based primarily on continued double-digit volume growth in the United States for AD and Vitiligo, partially offset by price actions to expand formulary coverage as well as sustained double-digit growth internationally off of a larger base as we lap the strong full year launch for Vitiligo in Europe. Most of the benefits of the moderate AD launch in Europe in the second half of this year are expected in '27 and beyond. As I've said, our aim long term is to nearly double the size of this business. The nonsteroil segment of the AD market is growing 20% year-over-year, creating a significant tailwind as prescribing migrates from topical steroids to nonsterile options.
We still have a modest share of each of those segments, so there is substantial headroom for growth. In addition to this, our international business and new indications will serve as meaningful catalysts for the next phase of expansion. And now on Slide 11, we'll turn to our hematology and oncology products. Net product sales in the fourth quarter were $187 million, up 121% compared to prior year. Full year '25 sales were $583 million, representing an 83% increase compared to 2024, driven by Nictimbo, Monjuvi and Xina. Nic Timo finished its first year at $152 million. We achieved broad penetration deep utilization of BMT centers, and we've reached more than 1,400 patients with 13,000 infusions, in line with expectations Victim is being used widely in the fourth-line setting with increasing preference in the third line.
As it relates to Monjuvi sales were up 20% versus prior year based on a strong launch in follicular lymphoma in the middle of 2025. As you know, we released data in January in frontline DLBCL where Monjuvi plus lenalidomide showed a 25% improvement in PFS, improving an R-CHOP chemotherapy, which is a regimen that still accounts for 50% of the first-line DLBCL market. This year, we plan to present the data at an upcoming medical meeting, work to incorporate Monjuvi into appropriate guidelines and submit an sBLA in the first half with a potential FDA approval by early '27.
Looking ahead, we've set our full year guidance for the Hematology & Oncology business at $800 million to $880 million for the year, representing approximately a 40% to 50% increase compared to our performance in '25. Now 3 takeaways about '26 that I'd like to reinforce before turning over the call to Pablo. First, our core business, excluding Jakafi, has the potential to be as large as Jakafi is today by 2030. And A key part of that growth will come from product launches we expect late this year and early '27. I mentioned XR, Opilor and Monjuvi earlier, so I want to make a few comments about where we are with vatinib.
The NDA for povasitinib in HS has been submitted and we anticipate filing acceptance this quarter. As you know, HS is the first of potentially 3 indications: the others being PN and Vitiligo. Pogo has the potential to be the first FDA-approved oral treatment for HS. Here, we have an opportunity to capture patients at 2 critical inflection points: first, in the pre-biologic setting, a population with no FDA-approved treatments today. These patients are cycling through antibiotics and steroids that don't address the underlying disease biology.
Second, in the post-biologic setting where IL-17 and TNFs are used but where partial responses are common. An effective oral option could be transformative in both treatment settings. We'll talk more about launch plans and future calls. Second, our pipeline has the breadth and depth to support top-tier growth and the potential of 2 to 3x our top line over time. In '26 alone, we will have 14 pivotal trials underway across 7 assets by end of the year and multiple data catalysts.
Paul will walk through the status of our key programs. and the potential to double our business over time. And finally, we view BD as a multiplier, a way to extend and strengthen the core. we have the capacity to pursue a broad range of opportunities. Ultimately, the size and nature of any deal will be dictated by a strategic fit and the potential for durable revenue earnings and cash flow.
Now I'll hand it over to Pablo.
Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. As Bill mentioned earlier, in 2025, the pipeline reached a new level of breadth and maturity setting up a materially different outlook for the company going forward. First, our approved portfolio and regulatory footprint broadened with approvals for Monjuvi in follicular lymphoma, sinus and squamous cell anal carcinoma and Opsilura in pediatric atopic dermatitis and alongside regulatory submissions for Jakafi XR, Opsalura and poricitinib. Second, positive clinical data meaningfully advance multiple programs including Phase III registrational data for pobasitinib in hydronatis supertivarHS and early-stage results supporting pivotal development for the mutant color program in MET KRAS G12D in pancreatic cancer and TGF-beta receptor to you by PD-1 bispecific in MSS colorectal cancer. .
In 2026, we will continue to build on this momentum through additional approvals, regulatory filings, pivotal data readouts and trial initiations. For our late-stage pipeline, we anticipate FDA filing acceptance for pobacitinib in HS this quarter, and we plan to submit an sBLA for tafasitamab in first-line DLBCL in the first half of 2026. With these submissions underway, we expect the potential approval and launch of 4 products in late 2026 and early 2027. The emphasis in '26 shift to advancement across the portfolio, as we expect 7 data readouts this year, including the positive tafacitamab data already shared in January and 14 pivotal trials underway across hematology, oncology and immunology by year-end.
Together, this reflects a pipeline that is increasingly focused, more mature and positioned to translate scientific progress into meaningful impact and long-term value creation. Our hematology portfolio is 2 priorities: expanding the addressable market of established products such as tafacitumab across a false spectrum of B-cell lymphomas and axatilimab in graft-versus-host disease and advancing novel therapies in myeloproliferative neoplasms via our MPM portfolio of targeted therapies. In GVHD, we're advancing Nick time in 2 first-line studies evaluating it in combination with ruxolitinib as well as in combination with steroids. Data from these trials are expected in early 2027 and early 2028, respectively.
Our MPM pipeline remains a key area of focus where we're advancing 3 targeted therapies: 989, our mutant collar monoclonal antibody, 784 are mutant collar by CD3 bispecific antibody and 058, our JAK2 V617F small molecule inhibitor. Each of these programs is designed to address a well-defined disease driver with the potential for disease-modifying activity and the opportunity to fundamentally change how MPNs are treated. Looking ahead to upcoming milestones. We expect to report Phase I data for 058 in the second half of this year. and Phase I data for 784 in 2027. With that context, I would like to turn to Slide 17 to review our progress with 989 and the breadth of development efforts for this program.
As a reminder, last year, we presented Phase I data evaluating 989 in color positive patients with essential thrombocythemia and myelofibrosis. The data presented at EHA and ASH in 2025 reinforce the potential of our approach to directly target the oncogenic driver mutation addressing both the underlying disease and key clinical manifestations. Importantly, this proof-of-concept results provide a strong foundation to advance 989 into pivotal Phase III development. We expect to initiate our Phase III trial evaluating [indiscernible] in second-line color positive ET patients in mid-2026, following regulatory alignment in the first quarter. Turning to myelofibrosis. We expect to initiate a Phase III trial in second-line MF in the second half of 2026 following regulatory alignment midyear.
In parallel, we continue to advance our ongoing Phase I study, which is enrolling second-line ET, second-line MF and first-line MF cohorts. We plan to share updated data in second-line ET and second-line MF midyear and new data from our cohort evaluating [indiscernible] as a monotherapy and in combination with ruxolitinib as a first-line therapy in the second half of 2026. Finally, we're advancing a subcutaneous formulation of 99 we aligned with the FDA on this development strategy last month, and we plan to initiate a Phase I study during the first quarter of 2026. The -- in December, tafacitamab was approved in both Europe and Japan in combination with lenalidomide and rituximab for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma following at least 1 prior line of systemic therapy further expanding its global footprint. In January, we reported positive top line results from the pivotal Phase III frontline trial, which evaluated tafacitumab and lenalidomide in combination with our CHOP as a first-line treatment for newly diagnosed high-grade DLBCL with IPI of 325.
The study met its primary Empeno progression-free survival and achieved its key secondary endpoint of event-free survival by investigator assessment with no new safety signals observed. We plan to present additional data from the frontline study, including overall survival and subgroup analysis at an upcoming Medical Congress this year. Based on these results, the SBLA for Pristine DLBCL remains on track for submission in the first half of 2026. If approved, Monjuvi has the potential to address the full spectrum of B-cell lymphomas. Turning now to oncology. Our oncology portfolio focuses on advancing novel therapies that target well validated by historically difficult pathways in high incidence cancers including colorectal, pancreatic and ovarian cancer. Starting with 890, our first-in-class TGFBeta receptor 2 by PD-1 bispecific antibody.
Based on data we presented at ESMO and following alignment with the FDA, we initiated a Phase III study in December, evaluating AO in combination with FOLFOX and bevacizumab compared to placebo in combination with all Fox bevacizumab in first-line MSS colorectal cancer patients. Next, 667, our CDK2 inhibitor has been evaluated in patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer with cycling E1 over expression, a biomarker-defined population with significant medical need. The Maestra clinical program consists of 2 ongoing trials, a Phase II single-arm study and a Phase III study versus investigator choice chemotherapy as well as a planned Phase III study evaluating 667 in the first-line maintenance setting in combination with bevacizumab.
734 is a highly selective KRAS G12D inhibitor that has demonstrated promising antitumor activity in G12D mutated solid tumors, including pancreatic adenocarcinoma or PDAC. Last month, at ASCO GI, we presented new efficacy and safety data evaluating 734 both as a monotherapy and in combination regimens in patients with PDAC. At the planned Phase III dose of 200 milligrams a day, 734 as a monotherapy demonstrated a 37% overall response rate in a predominantly third line and later population. -- with a disease control rate of 78%. In combination with standard of care therapies, 734 demonstrated a manageable tolerability profile when combined with gemcitabine plus nab-paclitaxel and modify FOLFIRINOX without compromising chemotherapy intensity.
Taken together, this data support the potential for 734 to be meaningfully integrated into frontline treatment for patients with PDAC. Earlier this year, we gained alignment with the FDA on the registrational program and are on track to initiate our Phase III trial in first-line PDAC in the first quarter 2026. If approved, 734 would represent the first G12D targeted therapy for the treatment of patients with pancreatic cancer. With pivotal trials now underway for CDK2, TGFb receptor by PD-1 and KRAS12, our strategic focus is turning to how we can expand these programs across additional tumor types and clinical settings.
Our objective is to broaden the potential impact of these programs and reach more patients over time. We expect to provide updates during 2026. Finally, in IAI, we have a JAK Anchor franchise with topical to oral solutions across mild to severe immune-mediated dermatological conditions. First, an update with Opsalura. In early 2025, we shared results from the Phase III program in prurigo nodularis, where obsolurametid primary endpoint demonstrate statistically significant improvement in itch compared to placebo in 1 of 2 registrational studies. In January, we received FDA feedback indicating that an additional clinical efficacy study will be required to support registration for this indication. As a result, we have decided to pause for the development of SalurnPN at this time.
Operas also been evaluated in a large Phase III registrational program as a topical treatment for mild to moderate Huttsuprativa, with results expected from the 2 HS1 and IH2 trials later this year. Haneda Suprativa is also the most advanced indication for povasitinib, our novel JAK1 small molecule inhibitor. Earlier this year, we presented 24-week Phase III data that further reinforce the differentiated clinical profile of povasitinib, demonstrating deep and sustained improvements across multiple key end points. Importantly, povacitenib also showed a rapid and robust reduction in skin pain and draining tunnels, a defining symptom for patients and a critical treatment goal for clinicians.
From a regulatory standpoint, we submitted the MAA to the EMA during the fourth quarter of 2025 and anticipate acceptance of the NDA filing by the FDA in the first quarter of 2026. Beyond HS, our Phase III registrational trials in vitiligo and PN continue to progress well. In vitiligo, we anticipate data from our 2 registrational Phase III trials STOP V1 and STOP V2 in mid-2026. In PN, we anticipate data from our STELPN1 and STOP PN2 studies expected by year-end. Finally, we continue to explore its broader potential with Phase II proof-of-concept data in asthma anticipated in the second half of 2020. Overall, 2026 is a pivotal year for opsolurand poblacitinib, with important key regulatory and clinical milestones across all evaluated indications.
To close, we have a catalyst-rich year ahead with multiple late-stage data readouts, regulatory milestones and pivotal trial initiations across our 3 core franchises, underscoring the breadth, depth and maturity of our pipeline. We look forward to an exciting year of execution and to providing continued visibility as these milestones unfold. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom for a financial update on the quarter.
Thanks, Pablo. As Bill mentioned earlier, our total revenues and product revenues for the quarter were $1.51 billion and $1.22 billion, respectively, increasing 28% and 20% from the prior year. For the full year, our total revenues and product revenues were $5.4 billion and $4.35 billion, respectively, increasing 21% and 20% from the prior year. Our GAAP R&D expenses were $611 million for the quarter increasing 31% from the prior year. Our GAAP R&D expenses were $2.05 billion for the year. Ongoing R&D expenses increased 8% year-over-year, driven by continued investment in our late-stage development assets. Moving to SG&A. GAAP SG&A expenses were $390 million for the quarter, increasing 19% year-over-year. .
Our GAAP SG&A expenses were $1.38 billion for the year, increasing 11% year-over-year, primarily driven by costs associated with the U.S. oncology product launches in 2025 and timing of certain other expenses. Ongoing operating expenses for the full year 2025 increased 11% year-over-year compared to a 19% increase in ongoing revenues during the same period, leading to a continued increase in operating leverage margins.
I'll now turn the call back over to Bill.
Thanks, Tom. Before we close, I want to reiterate our revenue guidance and address our expense outlook for 2026. As mentioned earlier, we have set full year '26 revenue guidance of $4.77 billion to $4.94 billion, representing a 10% to 13% increase from prior year. This includes net revenue expectations for Jakafi of $3.22 billion to $3.27 billion, OpSalura of $750 million to $790 million; and hematology and oncology of $800 million to $880 million. Sales for our core business ex Jakafi will range between $1.57 billion and $1.69 billion representing roughly a 30% growth rate at the midpoint in 2026.
As it relates to expenses, I think we've achieved the right balance between maintaining financial discipline and ensuring we are not underfunding strategic initiatives or compromising our growth prospects. We will continue to get leverage out of this business where we can so that we can create financial breathing room to invest where it matters most. Ultimately, what we're solving for is the steepest possible growth curve post 29% and durable earnings and cash flow. We expect total GAAP R&D and SG&A operating expenses to be $3.495 billion to $3.675 billion in '26. At the midpoint, this represents a 4% increase versus prior year. driven primarily by targeted investments in our late-stage pipeline and launch readiness while maintaining tight control elsewhere.
We expect R&D to be up roughly 10% from last year, consistent with advancing programs that we believe can meaningfully shape the company's future. 80% of our investment in R&D is concentrated in the 7 programs Pablo reviewed earlier. As it relates to SG&A, G&A will be down 10% compared to last year. While sales and marketing is modestly higher to support the key launches in the second half of the year.
Together, SG&A will remain relatively flat year-over-year, reflecting deliberate reallocation rather than broad-based spending. Finally, we anticipate cost of goods to remain relatively stable in the 8% to 9% range of net sales. We have an excellent set of opportunities in front of us and a path to replace Jakafi. What matters most right now, like at any company is execution, getting things done, which means orchestrating product launches, running multiple Phase III trials to tight time lines and managing the business at a detailed level.
With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from Marc Frahm from TD Cowen.
2. Question Answer
Congress on progress. Maybe sort of with Pablo, for the CAR pivotal programs, just your latest thoughts as you've gotten into designing the Phase III, that's just kind of how do address the potential differences for 989 and dosing for some of the different CALR mutations to ensure full potency. That approach to start low, titrate up for those that need it. or maybe prospectively kind of wrap people to different starting doses?
Or is it just simplify things and max out dose for everyone. And then maybe just a quick clarifying thing on the commentary around obsolete pricing. Just how much of that was driven by the entry into -- your entry in new markets and needing to access those versus maybe some of the competitive launches putting pressure on the existing indications?
Go ahead, Paul. Paul we'll take the first one. Thanks for the questions, Mark.
Okay. So we're going to discuss this with FDA this quarter. So I just -- I'm going to try not to go far ahead of ourselves. What we're proposing in principle for the ET second-line study, which we intend to initiate this half in the first half of 2026.
First of all, the enrollment would be in all patients, patients with all types of mutations, both type 1 and nontype 1 mutations. And we're going to discuss with FDA a dosing strategy, which we think will address the differential potency of 989 across the range of mutations that you brought up in your question. We're confident that we have a good strategy. We're also going to discuss the primary endpoint of the study, which obviously will be some version of hematologic response, but the question there is the timing for the valuation of the primary endpoint, which we would like to discuss with the agency. .
So all in all, I think we're in a good position. We submitted a good package. We look forward to interacting with the agency, and we'll provide an update later this year.
Thanks, Pablo. And Mark, as it relates to Opsalura, not a competitive issue. We take a very long-term view of Opsilor. We have exclusivity to the end of the next decade. We just launched a pediatric indication. We potentially could have an HS indication. The market is really moving, as you know, as I mentioned, prescribing migrates from steroidal topicals to nonsterile topicals. This was about improving formulary coverage for the long term at the major PBMs so that it's a frictionless experience for dermatologists and patients. And I would expect the impact on ASP in '26 to roll off in 2027 and beyond. We'll be providing fewer discounts in the future than we did in the past. That's it. Thanks for the question. .
Your next question is coming from Tazeen Ahmad from Bank of America. .
Also 1 on obselura. So can you just give us your sense of what the uptake is in the current approved indications and the average number of tubes that are being used. We understand the importance of being on formulary, but we'd also like to get a better sense of how to better model sales on a go-forward basis.
I can break this down a little then. First, the AD business is growing at almost 20% year-over-year. And you saw that in our '25 results. And then you have a [indiscernible] business that's growing in the mid-teens. And roughly 60% of our business is AD and roughly 40% of it is vitiligo. I would also comment that we launched for pediatrics in 2025. And that business, when you look at prescription data on a weekly basis is already annualizing at $30 million. So when you're thinking about modeling [indiscernible] that business is going to grow over the next 5 years at about a 10% CAGR. That's how I would think about net sales.
The other piece of Opole you have to think about is the international business. Now internationally, we finished '25 with $130 million in sales in Vitiligo. We're launching for moderate AD in that same market in the second half of the year. Most of the benefit will be in '27. The AD market is 5x the size of the vitiligo market. So I estimate there's probably $300 million in incremental revenue for Opsalora internationally over the next 5 years. So we're going to -- we finished the year at roughly $700 million, give or take, just below, $300 million of that could come from the United States, driven by AD Vitiligo and then $300 million internationally just by the -- just with the launch in moderate AD.
What I haven't factored into this is we get an indication for HS, for Opsilor at the end of 2027. Most of our growth will be volume. We expect some modest price actions over the next several years. I think most of the heavy lifting as it relates to securing formulary coverage and the investment in that is behind us. and that's how you think about this business. Essentially, you're going to grow at a CAGR of, call it, 10% to 15%. Thanks for the question.
Next question today is coming from Michael Schmidt from Grogan Securities. .
This is Bose on for Michael. So just some questions on front line. I guess with Monjuvi succeeding in frontline DLBCL Bill, you had mentioned that 50% of patients are receiving R-CHOP, but can you help us understand how you're thinking about the overall opportunity for Monvisetting and just positioning versus Polivy. And then a quick follow-up, on the trial, with the IPI eligibility criteria, it seems like the trial would maybe have a higher enrichment of patients with a poor prognosis.
So I guess in this context, how should we think about the PFS benefit that you reported? And are there any implications here for 1 potential use across a broader family population?
Great questions. I'll have Pablo answer the second question, and then we'll double back and answer the first question. Thanks, Pablo.
So you're correct. The study was focused on patients with an IPI 3 to 5. And that is a group with the worst prognosis that what has been reported by some of our competitors in the frontline DLBCL setting. I also would encourage you, what we know today, obviously, as mentioned in the script, that about half the patients are still getting our top -- and the recently introduced competitors in this space do not address the need of all patients with DLBCL. As you know, there's an entire subset of patients here with GCB DLBCL that are not currently addressed by 1 of the more recent entries in this space.
We look forward to showing the full benefit of Monjuvi in this patient population. We think that the benefit in PFS that we reported is very competitive. As you know, the safety profile of Monjuvi is very well established in this context. So we'll discuss the results in more detail over the course of the year. but we're very encouraged by what we're seeing across the entire spectrum of patients with DLBCL with IPI 3 to 5.
Yes. I'll just make a couple of comments, and then I'll ask Mohamad who runs Monjuvi to finish up. Right now, we're going to have by the end of '21, early 27 at 3 indication products. And we'll finish this year somewhere in the range of the mid-$200 million. with an indication of frontline DLBCL, and I don't see it as a fight to the death between Polivy and Monjuvi. We have a very positive study in frontline DLBCL, clear separation in terms of PFS. It's simply an intensification strategy with Monjuvi being added to LEN and R-CHOP versus a substitution or replacement strategy with Polivy. And so there's incremental revenue associated with Monjuvi that will support building this core business in 2030 to $3 billion to $4 billion.
Mohamad, do you have anything to add?
Yes. Thanks, Jose, for the question. First-line DLBCL represents the largest potential opportunity for Monjuvi with approximately 30,000 patients treated any. And 50% of those patients, as was mentioned, are still being treated with R-CHOP today. And as Bill just described, Monjuvi is in addition to R-CHOP versus replacing R-CHOP. And as Pablo mentioned, full spectrum of efficacy across all different types of patients with the PFS benefit has been communicated, I think, positions Monjuvi, not just for short-term growth, but continues to make Monjuvi a meaningful contributor, as you heard from Bill and others around our growth rate in 2029 and beyond -- thanks for the question, Ross.
Next question today is coming from Eric Schmidt from Cantor pit. .
Maybe I'll ask about 890 your bispecific for colorectal cancer. Are we going to see any additional Phase I/II data in 2026? And does the pivotal study have an interim analysis? .
Thanks, Eric. Probably why don't -- Stephen, do you want to take that? .
Yes, Eric. So yes, you will see additional data over the course of the year. That program, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, was initially -- the Phase III study was initiated already. We're in the process of expanding the footprint. We have identified more than 200 sites globally to execute this study. And we look forward to sharing updated data both in combination with altoxpevacizumab as well as other combinations that we are implementing for that program. So you'll see more data over the course of the year. We'll give more clarity on the specific timing of those as the year progresses, depending on submissions to different conferences.
Is coming from Salim Syed from Missile.
This is Eric Lavington on for Salim. I was just wondering if we could get a little bit more color on the OpsalurainPN and why the FDA was asking for another Phase III or recommending it. If that has any read-through to the Obsolor in HS? Or if perchance might have to do with trial designs for HSN?
Great. Thanks for the question. Steve and Stein will answer that for you.
Eric, thank you. You asked a few questions related to both PN and HS -- so just in Pablo's prepared remarks, if you remember, we conducted 2 large Phase IIIs in Parago nodularis. The 1 study was positive and statistically significant. The second study just missed -- based on comments during the year that the FDA made, we approached them if the combined analysis could suffice to get across the finish line. Because we have conducted 2 studies and 1 was negative, they strongly recommended that an additional trial, a third study would be needed in the setting and would obviously have to be positive to get it across the finish line.
So it's a unique situation where we had 2 studies 1 positive, 1 negative. And as Pablo said, that's why the programs currently pause while we debate whether or not to conduct an additional study. There is no read through to -- in our HS studies, we're doing standard regulatory development. Again, 2 large Phase IIIs accruing very well. As you know, our proof-of-concept data is very strong there. And obviously, we want those studies to be part and get across the finish line. And I don't know if Pablo wants to add anything else.
No, I will just add just a small comment on PN. While the second study did barely miss the primary import of itch, it was very positive for the Investigo Global Assessment or treatment success. So we're convinced that Obsolura has strong efficacy in patients with perianal areas. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we paused further development there. We're discussing whether we do -- we will or will not do an additional trial to try to support that indication. I obviously agree with Stephen. I don't think there's any read-through to the HS indication.
Your next question is coming from Saba Richter from Goldman Sacral .
Could you speak to the MLR bispecific here? You've guided to Phase I data next year. Maybe tell us more about this asset and how it could be differentiated from your current MCLR program. And then on 6 17F, where we'll see initial Phase I data in the second half -- what is your current level of conviction for this asset and walk us through the profile you want to see here to make that go, no-go decision? .
Thanks, Alvin. Pavel will take that.
Thank you, Salveen. So let me take first call or by CD3 bispecific program. So that study is really now accelerating. So we're very core the enrollment is going well. As you might remember, we designed our color by CD3 T cell engager, bispecific purposefully with the collar arm binding to a different epitope from our Color antibody. The reason for that is, obviously, if patients, for some reason, do not respond to the color antibody, there would be ideal targets for the bispecific -- now in terms of understanding where exactly will place a bispecific in the treatment paradigm for patients with MPNs, I think it's too soon for me to elaborate too much there.
We believe that there might be some patients that require more potent approach or that require a molecule that produces faster responses or perhaps that after initial responses to the color antibody for some reason, progress. As we generate the efficacy data that we will have next year for the bispecific, we will get more clarity into work the position in the treatment paradigm in patients with MPNs. As you know, and I reiterated at ASH last year, our goal by the end of the decade is to have a treatment solution for every single patient with MPN. That's why we think the bispecific could play a role.
Now in terms of the V617F program, we remain fully convinced that if you hit this driver mutation, the V617 mutation patient PN, if we hit it hard enough, we will get the same type of outcomes that we sell with the color antibody in [indiscernible] .
This is a driver mutation. We have a small molecule inhibitor. We have very strong preclinical package that we presented repeatedly. And we believe that if we hit it hard enough, we will get the same kind of transformative clinical effects and molecular effects that we saw with 989. We just need to generate that data. We are now entering the clinic with a new formulation that we discussed recently a solid dispersion of formulation. We will have data later this year. And once we have that data, we'll tell you what the next steps of the program are. .
And Pablo, also the key is that with 6 17F, we'll cover 3 MPNs, MF and PV not just MF and ET and the mutation frequency, as you know, Salveen, is 2x, 3x what it is for Callar. And so you'd essentially with 617 cover 80% of MF and ET and PV.
Our next question today is coming from Jay Olson from Oppenheimer. .
For patients as you plan your KRAS G12D CDAC study, can you share your thoughts on the trial design? And how are you doing the competitive landscape that's evolving in PDAC and potential advantages for your program? And do you plan to run any additional Phase III studies beyond PD ?
I'm going to have Stephen comment on the trial design, then I can come back with the competitive landscape and the expansion of this program. Go ahead.
Jay, thank you for the question. So as Pablo said, in the updated ASCO GI, we had that 37% response rate with very encouraging data on duration of response, potentially read through from duration of treatment to PFS. So we're really encouraged. I think the second really important point there was the ability to combine our 12D inhibitor with both standard of hair chemotherapy regimens in the frontline, so gem Abraxane plus modified filfurinox and the ability to deliver those regimens with the dose. .
So you can read through to that. Obviously, the study will go up on Krinal.gov as soon as it's open, that we intend to do a first-line study in combination with both chemotherapy regimens, we'll stratify accordingly, it will probably be 50-50 percent approximately each use, and it will be a comparison to the chemotherapy with standard time-to-event end points. We may look at things along the way in terms of response rate, et cetera. but it's a time to event study in that setting.
In terms of other studies beyond PDAC, obviously, this is a compound that we really like. I just alluded to the activity in PDAC. We have interest in activity in other tumor types with 12 Dis important, our colorectal cancer and lung, et cetera. So stay tuned to developments there. And including in PDAC as well, there's potential to potentially do things like adjuvant or neoadjuvant studies as well, which we'll outline as soon as we're ready to do so. So it's an important compound to us. We may well be the first 12 D to get across the finish line in terms of mutation specific therapy in a large tumor with massive unmet need and the ability to combine with both first-line standard of care chemotherapy.
And Jay, just regarding the competitive landscape, and I think this is true not just for 734 or G12D, but also TGF-beta PD-1. Both these cancers, response rates are low, survival times are short, and there haven't been novel treatments in the frontline setting in decades. G12D as a target was the Everest of oncology. TGF-beta by PD-1, no one's crack the code. Now we have to convert Phase I to Phase III. But I don't think this is about competition. These are the largest wide open white spaces in cancer, we could be first or early in pancreatic, and we could be first and only in colorectal.
So right now, we have to execute this program. And as Pablo talked about and Stephen expand these programs. And we have the capabilities and the resources to maximize both assets. If we ever needed a partner who would think about that carefully, expand our geographic reach, and we would do it on our terms. But we are sort of locked in on both of these, and I think competition is less important Phase III execution is most important.
Our next question is coming from Matt Phipps from William Banner.
This is Madeline on for Matt Phipps. On Poo in HS, did the pre-NDA discussions with the FDA discuss the potential to include biologic-naive patients in the labeled indication. .
Yes. Thank you for the question. I'll let Steven Stein answer it.
Yes. So obviously, our study included both populations, prebiologic and post-biologic. In fact, about 33% to 36% of patients had biologic exposure. You saw the activity which we updated during the year, showing extremely encouraging Hisar response rate that increase over time, excellent pain control upwards of 70% of patients over time having little to no pain and excellent data on draining tunnel. And that includes included in both populations. The post biologic activity is a little higher. We submitted the MDA, as we alluded to in our remarks, and that will be by the end of this first quarter should be signed off by the FDA, and we are seeking a label in both populations. .
Our next question today is come from Judah Farmer from Morgan Stanley.
Part on for Judah. We just wanted to get incremental color on expectations for the 99 readout and frontline MF later this year. What are you guys looking for in order to kind of move forward in that setting?
Pablo?
So by the second half of this year, we'll have a pretty substantial data set in patients with previously untreated myelofibrosis. And we're randomizing patients to 9 versus a combination of 9 ruxolitinib. So we'll have a very good idea of what the efficacy is in that population. Now let me make something very clear. I believe the data we have today with 989 that we presented at Asta we have with 989 most in previously treated patients with MF, a little bit of naive patients that were not legal for Jakafi. I am convinced that the efficacy and safety of 989 will support development in the first-line setting.
We do need the data set that we'll present later this year in order to discuss with the FDA how to design and implement the Phase III trials, -- but I'm fully convinced that this medicine will be developable in first-line MF. And we'll give you more clarity later this year.
Your next question today is coming from Andy Chan from Wolfe Research. .
This is Brandon on for Andy. Regarding the XR, any preliminary conversations with payers on formulary access or early signs that give you confidence on the eventual launch here? .
Yes, it's a good question. We absolutely have had conversations with every major PBM. Here's how I would think about it. I think that Jakafi is the perfect product for an X formulation because if you think about it, it treats a chronic symptomatic disease, the twice 8-day drug with a 3-hour half-life. And we know that once-a-day formulations produce an adherence gain of 15% to 25%. So there is a medical reason why this product should be put on formulary. That's point number one.
Point number 2 is we have to set a price that makes sense to the PBMs and the health plans for the patients and for insight. And there is a price point that's going to make sense. We think about it in 3 contexts. One is what is the net cost of the plan. two, what is the coinsurance and patient out-of-pockets and then three, what will be rebates. Now a new product, your goal is to get 80% to 100% coverage. -- with an extended-release formulation like Jakafi, you're probably not going to reach into that top tier of formulary coverage. But we should get enough formulary coverage to enable a conversion rate of 10% to 30%. And pick the midpoint. Most of '26 will be about that, you'll start to see meaningful conversion in 2027. Thanks for the question.
Next question is coming from Evan Singerman from BMO Capital Markets. .
When you're thinking about the Phase III HS data for solar in 4Q talk to me about how you plan to manage the placebo response for this trial, especially with it being tested in kind of the mild to moderate patient population, which you could have a more exaggerated dynamic with the placebo?
Thanks, Evan. Go ahead, Stephen.
Yes. Evan, thanks for the question. You're right. So when you have a lower burden of absence and nodules, you can get an inflated placebo response rate. The 2 ways, we're managing that in the Phase IIIs, a larger study, a greater end and setting the minimum number of requirement on absentees which should manage an artificial placebo response rate and then also looking at higher rates of Hisco control like Iscar75. So all of the above.
Larger study minimum number of absent nodules and a higher Hisco control rate and then obviously, 2 studies as well. And that's the main ways we're trying to control the placebo response rate.
Next question is coming from Derik Garcia from Wells Fargo.
Just quickly, so how much revenue contribution from RXR are you really baking into the Jakafi guide -- and I just wanted to clarify, so you highlighted 30% penetration for Jakafi in PV right now? I guess what level do you think you can get to before LOE? .
As it relates to the guidance for 2026, there's no incremental revenue associated with XR in that number. And so we expect that Jakafi in '26 between PV and GVHD will grow in the high single digits, and there is going to be some modest price actions, and that gets us to the current guidance. When you think about this business over the next 3 years, the 2 indications that are growing at a double-digit rate, PV and GVHD. And I would look at this as a mid -- maybe mid- to high single-digit grower between now and 2028, the end of 28 when we actually transition and generics are introduced. I think it's the best way to model and think about the business.
I think I've been pretty consistent about how to think about Jakafi. And as it relates to conversion, if we can pick up, take the mid-20%, 20%, you're going to have almost $0.25 billion sitting in XR when we get to the '29 here. Thank you.
Next question is coming from Brian Abrams from RBC Capital Markets.
So on 989, now that you have some alignment with the FDA. I was wondering if you could give us a sense of just the potential volumes and injection times that you're going to be testing for the subcu bioequivalent study? And -- maybe talk about the most probable path for integrating the subcu into the broader program and potential time lines there?
So let me make a couple of comments on the subQ development. And it's a little bit early for me to answer your question with a lot of precision. So let me try this. The study will test -- the first thing we need to answer is what's the bioavailability of the formulation that we're going to test subcu. We obviously have per clinical data, but now we need human data to really understand exactly what that is. So that's point number one. The second, and as I mentioned, related to the first Phase III trial in second-line ET is we need to align with the FDA which we'll do this quarter on the dosing strategy for patients with ET. .
Once we have those 2 pieces of data, by availability of the subcu formulation and dosing strategy, I will be able to answer your question about volume and infusion time. As you remember, we signed a collaboration with Enable late last year, I believe, in October of last year to use the infused device. -- which will allow very high volumes of infusions by the patients at home without the need to go to the doctor's office as a self-applied device. It takes about 10, 15 minutes. -- and the patient does it without any major discomfort. It's not a device that patients have to work continuously. They just do it at the time of infusion and then they can remove it and throw it away.
So we believe that, that device will give us the alternative to really have a very simple subcutaneous infusion experience for patients pretty much regardless of the dose. But in terms of specifics, we need a little more data to fully answer the question. We'll have that data over the course of the year.
Our next question is coming from Stephen Willey from Stifel. .
On the in selective JAK inhibitor. I know you've made some comments recently about IC 35 being the exposure target that's needed to see clinical benefit. Can you just elaborate on why you think that's the right target exposure, if that's somehow limited by cross reactivity on wild type and just whether you think the new formulation can get you meaningfully higher than C35. .
Yes, it's an excellent question. So the reason the I-35 focus with the 058 program is because that's specific to 58 is not about the target. It's about the selectivity of the molecule that we have in the clinic. And that's what the animal model data suggests that there is a window -- the ideal window of selectivity between the effect on the mutant -- the V6 mutant and the wild type is around the IC 35. So we believe that with the current formulation, based on preclinical data, we should be able to achieve that level of exposure. That question will be answered relatively quickly over the course of this year, and we believe we'll then have clinical data in the second half of 2026. But the IC 35-point is related to the selectivity of the molecule.
Now -- as I mentioned, I think towards the end of last year, and we reiterate our JPMorgan earlier this year. We do have backup programs in this space. We are fully committed to this target. We believe hitting this target hard will translate into clinical benefit in this -- in this patient. So whether it 058 in the second half of this year, we'll provide clarity on addressing this target or 1 of the backup programs remains to be seen, but we're fully committed to answering this question.
Our final question today is coming from Kripa Devarakonda from Truth Securities.
I wanted to just get your expectations for poborsitinib and OSA with the Phase II readout coming up? And also, maybe you can help us understand where you see a place for this drug in the therapeutic landscape? Is it prebiologic oral or for patients who are refractory. I know it's a little early ahead of the data, but any color you can give would be helpful?
Yes, I'll take the second part of your question, which I think relates to povacitinib and HS, and then I'll turn it over to Pablo. I think the key here with povacitinib. Think about what's happening in the obesity market right now with an oral pill. There is a lot of energy around agovi.Now I'm not suggesting that HS is like obesity. But there's a couple of hundred thousand people in the United States being diagnosed and treated with HS. Only about 25% of those patients are taking an advanced systemic and the only advanced systemics available or the IL-17s and T&F -- that's 50,000 people. The 150,000 people using products that are not approved for HF, antibiotics and steroids.
Our ability to drive sales of pobacitinib is to get to that group, that's 75% of the market where they have an advanced to a biologic, they're not getting complete control with an antibiotic or a steroid. And so I think the path here is to get to this prebiologic population and 70% of our data are in that population. Pova is tailor-made for this group of patients. And I do expect that there'll be a great deal of trial and adoption. Once that happens, there's, of course, the post biologic and half the people that are on IL-17 don't get a full response, and so there are going to be patients there.
Next thing we have to do as a company is create an experience for patients and physicians and make it easy to get the product. And that means making sure we verify benefits, we get the time to first fill is really short. We clear PAs and we reduce the abandonment rate. And if we do those 2 things, povacitinib is going to be a major driver of revenue for this company in HS. And then of course, you layer in PN and vitiligo, and we have a very sizable product. That's how I would think about it.
And if you want to turn to the asthma piece.
So look, we know from all the data that we've been generating over the past several years across a range of indications that povacitinib is a very strong, very potent tent inflammatory medicine. In that context, knowing that asthma is an inflammatory disease, I think this is a strong rationale. There was a strong rationale that the study we started to develop oversidnib in asthma, particularly in patients, obviously, that don't respond to inhaled corticosteroid to long-acting beta agonist and particularly in patients with low synophelic asthma. Now we are conducting a well-designed, randomized Phase II study -- we will have the data later this year. And based on that, we'll decide next steps. But obviously, there was a strong scientific rationale to do that, and we look forward to showing the data later this year. .
We reach the end of our question-and-answer session. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.
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Incyte — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Incyte — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Q4-Umsatz: $1,51 Mrd. (+28% YoY)
- Gesamtjahr 2025: $5,4 Mrd. (+21% YoY)
- Nettoverkäufe Q4: $1,22 Mrd. (+20% YoY)
- Jakafi (FY): $3,093 Mrd. (+11% YoY)
- Kernumsatz ex Jakafi: $1,26 Mrd. (+53% vs. 2024)
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Pipeline-Reife: Mehrere Assets wurden 2025 von frühen in späte Phasen verschoben; 14 pivotal laufende Studien bis Ende 2026.
- Diversifikation: Ziel, das Kerngeschäft ex Jakafi langfristig auf Jakafi-Größe zu bringen; wichtige Launches: Jakafi XR, Opsalora (erweiterte Indikationen) und Monjuvi.
- Strategie für Wachstum: M&A als Hebel ("BD als Multiplier"), gezielte Investitionen in 7 Hauptprogrammen (≈80% der F&E-Investitionen).
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Umsatz 2026: $4,77–4,94 Mrd. (≈+10–13% vs. 2025).
- Segmentziele: Jakafi $3,22–3,27 Mrd.; Opsalora $750–790 Mio.; Hämatologie/Onkologie $800–880 Mio.
- Aufwand: GAAP R&D+SG&A $3,495–3,675 Mrd.; R&D steigt ~10%. In 2026 ist kein nennenswerter Umsatz aus Jakafi XR eingeplant.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- 989 (CALR): Diskussion mit FDA zur Dosisstrategie und Einschluss verschiedener Mutationen; Phase‑III‑Start geplant 1H/2026.
- Opsalora & PN: Ein Study-Arm verfehlte Endpunkt; FDA verlangt weitere Studie → Entwicklung für PN pausiert; HS‑Programm (povacitinib) bleibt aktiv.
- Monjuvi in DLBCL: Positionierung als Add‑on zu R‑CHOP (nicht Ersatz für Polivy); Zielgruppe IPI 3–5; sBLA Anfang H1/2026.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Kurzfassung: Starkes 2025 mit breitem Umsatzwachstum und deutlich reiferer Pipeline; 2026 wird ein katalystrisches Jahr mit mehreren potenziellen Zulassungen und drei wichtigen Launches. Risiko bleibt an der Execution (Phase‑III‑Ergebnisse, Marktzugang, Formulary‑Verhandlungen) — für Aktionäre bedeutet das attraktives Upside bei gleichzeitig signifikantem Ausführungsrisiko.
Incyte — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Great. Good morning. Welcome, everyone. My name is Jess Fye, biotech analyst at JPMorgan, and I'm delighted to be continuing conference this morning with Incyte. First, you're going to hear a presentation from the company's CEO, Bill Meury, then we're going to open it up for Q&A. If you have a question, you're sitting in the room, someone will bring you a mic.
[ Audio gap ]
If you want to ask it, over the portal, internet to me on the iPad, you can do that too. But with that, let me pass it over to Incyte's CEO, Bill Meury.
All right. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for being here. What I want to try to do with our time this morning is give you a clear and balanced picture of Incyte and talk about how we're thinking about building the company. As I was walking in the room, someone asked me what makes Incyte unique? The way I think about it is we're not a diversified giant or a small start-up. We have the innovation and growth potential of a biotech company and the capabilities and resources of a large pharma company. I would say the sweet spot of scale. What we're trying to solve for right now is top-tier revenue growth and durable revenue earnings and cash flow.
Now in order to navigate the transition of Incyte from a Jakafi company to a hem/onc and IAI company, we have to do these three things right. You see them on the slide. First, scientific innovation. As you know, return on R&D investment in biopharma has been stubbornly challenging and persistently difficult to unlock. And Incyte is not necessarily immune to that reality. But what I would say is that our pipeline is stronger, deeper and more strategically aligned than ever before. It's not consumed by moonshots or safe low return bets. It has the right balance in terms of risk and reward. We focus on compounds where our science gives us an edge in areas where we can lead that specialized high-value markets.
In terms of operational execution, there's plenty of biologic risk in the industry, and so we have to control execution risk. Operationally, department heads at Incyte, R&D, manufacturing, commercial are expected to run their business at a detailed level. And in terms of execution, we're focused on doing three things well: first, setting priorities. We focus on the vital few things that can create value. So for example, our R&D investment in 2026 will be just north of $2 billion. 80% of that investment is in seven priority compounds. So there's no diffuse spending. We're not scattershot, and we've gotten rid of what I call limbo projects. Second, set deadlines and commit to meet those deadlines. Deadlines inspire productivity in the company probably more than compensation, and they create urgency. And then finally, we make sure that long-term strategic growth initiatives are fully funded and resourced. Last point here is value creation. We're not the National Cancer Institute. We're not the National Institute of Health, and we have to convert science into FDA approvals and cash flows.
We think about our business across three dimensions or therapeutic areas: hematology, oncology and IAI. We're not looking to configure a loose unrelated group of products. We're trying to build franchises because franchises give strategic, operational and financial advantages. This informs what we do, what we don't do, what we invest in, what we don't invest in, gives employees clarity and should give investors some predictability. Hematology is a central identity of the company, and we have a window of opportunity to transition the treatment of MPNs from non-specific symptomatic therapies to mutation-specific disease modifying therapies. In oncology, I think we've quietly and systematically built what could be a high-impact oncology portfolio. And of course, in IAI, we have a jacket franchise with topical to oral and mild-to-severe solutions. There are two achievements in 2025 on this list that stand out to me. The first one is our core business is exceeding expectations on three levels. Total sales, Jakafi sales, which is important because Jakafi is a funding vehicle for our pipeline and for new product launches. And then in terms of the core business, ex Jakafi, we expect is going to be up over 40% in '25 over 2024. Second, we fundamentally changed the shape and maturity of our pipeline in 2025. We moved multiple assets from early-stage development to late-stage development. So to put this in context, when we started 2025, we had no proof-of-concept data on 989. No proof-of-concept data on G12D, TGF-beta by PD-1, no Phase III data on POVO. No safety data of Niktimvo in combination with Jakafi. And we had no frontline DLBCL data on Monjuvi. We have all of those things right now. The point here is that we have much greater visibility into the potential growth profile of the company and our ability to set a new high more mark for Incyte.
Three simple but important points for 2026, and I'll break each one of these down. First, our core business ex Jakafi has the potential to be as big as Jakafi is currently by 2030. Key part of that growth story will be product launches for Jakafi XR, Opzelura, POVO and Monjuvi. Second, our pipeline has the breadth and depth to support top-tier growth and potentially 2 to 3x our top line. We have seven assets being supported by 14 pivotal trials in 2026.
And then finally, in terms of business development, we see it as a multiplier to extend or strengthen the core. We're not looking to chase deals, fill a revenue gap or buy unbounded downside risk. We want high fit opportunities that have the potential to create durable revenue earnings and cash flow into the next decade. Now this is a road map essentially for what I would call [ Act 2, ] and I'll start at the end and work our way backwards. If you see the top right. What we want to do is configure a company that can achieve top-tier revenue growth, call that a 15% to 20% 5-year CAGR is diversified in terms of number of products, indications and markets has minimal LOE exposure, has healthy operating margins on a balance sheet that could approach $7 billion to $8 billion by 2030. Now if we start at the beginning on the far left of this chart, we have a core business that will fund the pipeline and reduce the depth of the trough. We have product launches and a pipeline that will become the core business, reduce the duration of the trough and build a glide path post-2029.
Let's take a look at the core business. You can read this from bottom to top. Dark blue is Jakafi, light blue is the core business. You can see in 2024, we had sales of $3.62 billion. We expect to finish 2025 at or a tick above the upper end of our guidance of $4.32 billion. In terms of Jakafi, it had a very strong fourth quarter and a good year, and we're very focused on the health of that business given the fact, as I mentioned earlier, it is a funding vehicle.
Now here, I'm zooming in on the core business. And the core business is defined in the right, the list of products Opzelura, Niktimvo, Monjuvi, Zynyz, Pemazyre and Iclusig. And you read this from left to right. If you take a look at 2024, sales were approximately $827 million. We expect to finish '25 million at $1.26 billion, which is the midpoint of our range, up 45%. Two comments about this. If you look at the products on the right, every single one of them were up in 2025 over '24. That's number one. Number two, Opzelura, Niktimvo and Monjuvi with the largest absolute growth contributors to our core business ex Jakafi.
We can read this slide right here from left to right. On the left, you have Opzelura, Niktimvo, Monjuvi, Zynyz. And then 2025 sales, what I want to focus on is the third column from the left, which is the growth drivers. Our estimation is Opzelura has the potential of 2x over the next five years. Growth from Opzelura is going to come from three sources: first, increased penetration of the AD and vitiligo markets in the United States. 2025, Opzelura in AD was up between 20% and 25%, and vitiligo was up between 15% and 20%, that's number one. Number two, we'll be launching Opzelura for AD in Europe in second half of 2026. Most of the benefit of that launch will be in 2027. In Europe with Opzelura in vitiligo today, we finished '25 just south of $150 million. The AD market in Europe is 5x the size of the vitiligo market, that's going to be an important growth driver. We're also pursuing indications for prurigo nodularis and hidradenitis, that's number one. As it relates to Niktimvo, had an excellent first year. It's annualizing at over $200 million. We penetrated roughly 20% of the third-line plus population. So there's still a lot of headroom. I think one of the most important facts about the launch is that the persistency rate with Niktimvo is between 60% and 70%. That is patients who started at the beginning of the launch for the year and are still on therapy at the end of the year, and what that equates to is compounding revenue. We're pursuing combinations of Niktimvo with steroids and ruxolitinib, which could 2x the addressable population for Niktimvo, important product. We have an excellent partnership with Syndax. As it relates to Monjuvi, we released data in frontline DLBCL last week and presented it. We just released it last week. This is a very positive large Phase III trial in DLBCL. There were clear improvements in PFS, EFS in a high-risk population defined by IPI 3 to 5, and in patients with complex biology. Not a winner-take-all market. It's not a battle between Monjuvi and Polivy in my opinion. 50% of the market is still in R-CHOP. So Monjuvi plus lenalidomide represents an intensification strategy versus a substitution strategy with Polivy. The point is that this will sustain the growth of Monjuvi. Over the next five years, we now have not just a: two-indication drug, relapsed and refractory and follicular, but also frontline DLBCL. And we'll be sharing more information about Monjuvi including activity in various subgroups.
Now this is a snapshot of our pipeline. And there are five points I'll make here. The first one is, these seven assets form three franchises: hematology, oncology and immunology, number one. Second, what you see here are novel and/or first-in-class agents. That is there are no me-toos or late entrants. Third, six of the seven programs are in Phase III, and the majority of these programs were homegrown. Fourth, this pipeline has the potential to achieve top-tier growth, net peak sales opportunity of north of $10 billion. Naturally, that is not a hard target. It's indicative of the substrate in the pipeline. Well, of course, refine our view of the potential of this pipeline as more information is collected on each asset as we derisk it, it becomes less opaque and more transparent. And then lastly, each one of these assets has strong IP and an exclusivity period that extends to the end of the next decade or the beginning of the following one.
This is our MPN portfolio. We're developing three targeted therapies you can read from left to right that shut down the driver mutation and don't just manage the disease, but modify the disease. So if you think about MF, PV and ET, standard of care treatments, Jakafi, hydroxyurea and interferon. They block pathways. They manage symptoms, they're blunt instruments, very different in what you see other areas of oncology. In other areas of oncology, immunotherapy, precision medicine and targeted therapies are the standard of care, not the case here with MPNs. We have an opportunity to trigger a changing of the guard in the treatment of these blood cancers. In 2027, we'll provide an update on 784, which is our T cell engager. In the second half of '26, we'll provide more information about our 617F small molecule. Right now, I want to focus on 989 and give you an update of what's happened since the ASH meeting about 30 days ago. To remind you, this is an all-comer strategy, type 1, non-type 1, front line, second line, mono and cabo, at least as it relates to myelofibrosis.
I'll move from left to right on this slide, you have important updates. First, we'll have a meeting with the FDA this quarter, and we expect to gain alignment on our program in terms of endpoints, dose and design. By the middle of 2026, we'll start a second-line study in ET, and we'll provide updated data from the ongoing Phase I program. So that's ET. In MF, in the middle of 2026, we expect to have alignment with the regulators on a second line study in MF, and we'll share updated data from our ongoing Phase I second-line MF cohort. Then in the second half of 2026, we expect to start second-line MF study as well as provide data from the Phase I cohort examining 989 and 989 ruxolitinib frontline MF. And then finally, we gained agreement about a week ago with the FDA on a subcu development program for 989.
A couple of comments about ET. The practice-changing thesis or the blockbuster thesis on 989, I think is predicated on two things. First, on the left, high clinical and molecular response rates, relative to the standard of care, which is HU. and then on the right, a large chronic underserved market. And I think the best way to think about the ET market is to stratify it. So we have 20,000 patients in the United States with a CALR mutation ET. That excludes the watch and wait group. 50% of them achieve only a suboptimal response, not because hydroxyurea is not an effective cytoreductive agent, it is. But most patients can't reach a therapeutic dose due to side effects. Ask any hematologist, and there is a therapeutic squeeze with hydroxyurea. Now our partial response means residual symptoms, residual thrombotic risk and the potential risk of transformation, although it is low. That is one sort of segment. 25% of patients with hydroxyurea or with ET a resistant hydroxyurea. An HU resistance is an independent negative prognostic indicator for survival. 989 has the potential to reshape the use even with second-line data of the use of hydroxyurea and becoming standard of care. MF shares the same biology as ET, but it's more complex, more aggressive and linked with shorter survival. We shared data at the ASH meeting this year, second-line MF, what I would describe on the left is first-line efficacy in a second-line study. If you look at the right, there are roughly 10,000 patients in the United States with a CALR mutation and MF. As remarkable and as important as Jakafi is, it's essentially a quality of life drug, but only 30%, 40% of people achieved an SVR35. At diagnosis, about 1/3 of people are anemic and after treatment, that number almost doubles. And probably the most important point on this chart is that 20% of people are at risk for transformation to AML. So the potential for 989 in both ET and MF is significant.
Our strategy in oncology right now is threefold. First, we focus on novel biologic targets and pathways. So think TGF-beta by PD-1, G12D, CDK2. High-incidence cancers that miss the IO revolution, colorectal cancer, pancreatic cancer and ovarian cancer. And we're developing treatments that can be used frontline in combination with standard of care chemo, which can have the most immediate medical impact and commercial impact for Incyte. We're running four Phase III trials across these compounds. I'm going to focus on G12D and provide you with an update there. This was long considered as many people in this room know the Everest of oncology, considered an undruggable target. Today, it's probably one of the most scientifically compelling targets in oncology, and Incyte has a credible path having the first selective G12D inhibitor for pancreatic cancer. Standard of care has been chemo for decades. There are no targeted therapies, as you know. The 5-year survival rate is quite low. 734 is a highly selective G12D inhibitor. We ran a large Phase I trial of approximately 300 patients, including 200 in PDAC. This weekend, we presented data at ASCO GI, and there is an update on our monotherapy arm, 1,200 milligrams daily. The objective response rate was 37%. The disease control rate was 78%. There are very few discontinuations or dose reductions due to side effects. And the swimmer plot in terms of durability of benefit is very, very encouraging. We also shared data on 734 in combination with both standard of care chemo regimens, GEMNab and FOLFIRINOX. We have a manageable safety profile without compromising dose intensity. We are starting a Phase III program in frontline PDAC in first quarter, very encouraged by what's happened with this compound over the past year.
Turning to povorcitinib. We're developing it for hidradenitis, vitiligo and prurigo nodularis. It could be the first oral JAK inhibitor for HS. It will open up a large market in vitiligo that is patients with a BSA involvement of greater than 5%, which is a market we can't get to with Opzelura, practically speaking. And it could be the first and only JAK inhibitor in prurigo nodularis. The NDA for povorcitinib is expected to go in the first quarter of 2026, we expect to launch at the end of '26 early 2027. We'll have data from our vitiligo and prurigo nodularis programs in the second half of 2026. A couple of comments about povorcitinib. I think the HS market is primed, not only for povorcitinib, but for an oral anti-inflammatory that has biologic efficacy. And there are other JAK inhibitors out there. I don't think it's a fight to the death, winner take-all market either. Hydradenitis is one of the most challenging dermatological conditions that you can have. Pain is the defining symptom. Today, if you think about what is available to dermatologists and patients, you have an antibiotic on one side, which does very little for inflammation, and you have an IL-17 on the other side, which is effective, but works about half the time. JAK inhibitor like povorcitinib is a multi-cytokine inhibitor. And in HS, that matters. This is very different than IL-23-mediated psoriasis or IL-4/13-mediated atopic dermatitis advantage. We achieved clearance rates in the 50% to 60% range by week 24. That's as good as a biologic. Pain relief in 60% to 70% of people by week 2024, most of that relief comes in the first three weeks. We have an opportunity to capture patients at two inflection points, after antibiotic were prebiologic and post biologics. We have a path to replace Jakafi and set a new high watermark. And these are three strategic priorities that we're focused on in running the company, build the core business, advance the pipeline and use business development to strengthen and extend the core.
Thank you very much.
Great. Thanks for the presentation. And as a reminder, if you've got questions in the audience, you can internet me over the iPad or just raise your hand, someone will bring you the mic. So you spent a lot of time kind of outlining the plan to address the Jakafi LOE. Can you double-click a little bit on how you're going to balance managing expenses during that kind of LOE period called the trough period, how you balance that with kind of investing to support growth as you come out the other side?
Yes, it's a good question. We will get leverage out of this business over time. Right now, we're solving for -- what we're solving for is the steepest possible growth curve post 2029 that we can create. We approach budgeting and allocating operating expenses in a very sort of bottoms-up way. And our first call on capital right now is that core business. So that business is as big as Jakafi when we hit 2029. And then the second call on capital are the R&D programs. And we're not -- as I mentioned, we're not spreading our bets everywhere. We're focused on seven compounds that some of them are calculated risks, but that we think can create outsized returns. And we will manage our margins between now and then, but what we want to solve for is not the next three years, we may trade a little bit of margin, a little bit of R&D burn, so that we can create a glide path to growth. But I will tell you, the company will be disciplined in terms of how we're managing OpEx. Our G&A in 2026 will be down 5% to 10%. Sales and marketing, growth, operating expense growth will be managed. Of course, in R&D, our operating expenses there will be up north of 10%.
A question in the audience?
Yes. I'm Martin [ Versace, ] I'm a biotech entrepreneur, but I'm here because I'm also patient in PV taking Jakafi. And I just wanted to share that I had to get Jakafi prescribed in Europe because at MSK in New York and Cornell in New York, they wouldn't prescribe it to me, because they said I didn't meet all the criteria of PV, and they said -- like I saw them very resistant to prescribing a medication that for the last two years has been the best thing that ever happened to me. I mean it's -- compared to all the other alternatives is -- I mean, I'm better than I ever was. I don't know what it does, but not only controlling the hematocrit, but it seems to be very good for the immune system and anything else. Why are doctors resistant, and I can give you names, Dr. Rampal, [ Robos, ] reluctant to prescribe it, saying that I didn't fill all the criteria of PV. When in Europe, they just gave it to me.
Well, first of all, if you give me the name of the physician, I will go visit that physician. Pablo, do you want to take that?
Look, I think that when you look at the trajectory of Jakafi and PV over the past 10 years since initial approval, I mean, it's been the fastest-growing segment of the market. So it's unfortunate to hear that some physicians is still resistant. And I don't know the specifics of the case. But the adoption of Jakafi in PV in the U.S. has been excellent across the board. Sometimes, I think the same physicians are more conservative about when they initiate Jakafi versus other interventions like phlebotomy and other things. But I think in general, we're quite happy the way the community -- and 2 years ago, 2.5 years ago, we presented the magic PV data that basically show that there's an improvement in thrombosis free survival in patients with polycythemia vera that take Jakafi. I think that has really led to an inflection point in adoption. So maybe your experience precedes the availability of that data and maybe that explains why those particular physicians were too conservative.
So turning to the pipeline, 989 got a lot of focus last year. Thinking about frontline MS, what would you need to see in the data to justify moving into frontline?
In our frontline Phase I results?
Yes.
You're going to want to -- well, in a monotherapy scenario, you're going to want to see the SVR35 at a clinically meaningful level, nice improvements in TSS50. We expect to see continued anemia response. So if you can replicate what we've observed in that Phase II, or excuse me, in that Phase I trial, second-line patients, we'll have to talk to the FDA about a path for generating a frontline indication, but I think all the information is there. Obviously, in combination, you're going to have to see additive benefit in terms of 35 -- SVR35 symptoms, and we'll see how the anemia response looks. And we'll learn more when we get the Phase I data in the second half of '26. Pablo?
I think Bill made the comment during his remarks that what we've seen so far, just to remind everyone, is basically first-line efficacy in second line patients. When you look at the results we presented at ASH in terms of SVR35, TSS50, they're comparable with historical benchmarks for Jakafi in first-line patients with MF. So that's really a really good start. The additional thing we've seen, there are two additional things are: number one is anemia improvement. 56% of the patients have improvement in hemoglobin, which is very, very meaningful in this population. And the final piece is that the safety profile is a lot more benign than Jakafi. As good as Jakafi is, and we just heard a testimony, it's -- CALR has been -- 989 has been extremely well tolerated. So other question in first line is, is it going to be a single agent, or is it going to be a combination. We're doing both. As you know, we're randomizing patients through 989 versus 989 plus Jakafi in previous untreated MF. Once we have that data, we'll make that decision. It could very well be a three-arm study, with Jakafi as a control and two other arms running combination with one single agent. And the endpoint is something we'll need to discuss with FDA. I think I'm particularly excited about the data in terms of anemia improvement and maybe bringing the FDA forward to say that maybe that is a more relevant endpoint for patients with MF, perhaps in symptoms. So we'll see how we balance those things once we have more data.
We're committed to developing this front line, but we need data. An important point, 60% to 70% of patients on Jakafi ultimately end up on the second line of progress. So even the second-line data, whether it's in ET or in MF and this is not meant to lower expectations, is going to have an immediate impact, one in the hematology community and then in terms of what 989 can mean to Incyte when we launch it.
I have a question. As you think about core business pipeline, capital allocation strategically on a high level, how do you think about China as a competitor and partner?
It's, one, a source of innovation for sure, and it can also be a partner. I think it's exactly what you said. Today, obviously, we're 90% U.S. We have an emerging business in Europe. I would expect over the next couple of years, not only our presence, but our work in China is going to continue to expand.
So coming back to 989, how should we think about the time lines for second-line development in MF and also ET?
So the -- we presented the updated data in ET at ASH, and I think it was a very compelling data set in terms of complete hematologic response and the molecular impact of 989 in terms of reducing the size of the malignant clone in patient. So we're really, really excited about that data. And as Bill mentioned in his remarks, we are in the process of -- we're going to meet with FDA this quarter to finalize -- fully aligned on the regulatory path in second-line ET, and we expect in the first half of the year to initiate the Phase III in second-line ET. So that's already moving forward in a way. In second-line MF, we're finalizing some of the data that we need for optimizing the dose in patients with second-line MF. We obviously present the data as well at ASH, which we thought was very impressive in terms of SVR35, TSS50 anemia and molecular responses, particularly when you think about the reduction of the size of malignant clone in the bone marrow and in peripheral blood. So with that data, as it continues to evolve, we will accelerate that in the second half of the year, and we expect to start a pivotal trial in second-line MF patients in the second half of 2026. So those two studies will start this year.
And when do they end?
Let's get them started, and then we'll give you more clarity on when. But -- and the reason -- I'm not -- regarding your question, but the reason -- one of the key questions for that is particularly in ET is whether we align with the FDA on the timing for the primary endpoint, which traditionally has been 52 weeks. We think we have a good argument based on the responses we've seen on normalization of platelets, which happened very fast with 989 to have an endpoint at 24 weeks, which we believe is more meaningful in terms of accelerating time to market. Once we have the full alignment with FDA, we'll talk a little bit more about the timelines for approval.
Jess, one thing I would add, and we're pretty modest about the accuracy of our future predictions. But if you look at the pipeline, G12D, CDK2, the additional indications for Niktimvo, which I think are important and 989, I'll just focus on those four, all have the potential to launch between 2027 and around [ 2023. ] Time is of the essence here. And obviously, 989 is one of the more appealing pipeline assets that we have. This is a giant execution test, but all of these Phase III studies are going to start in the next 6 to 9 months.
And what about your JAK2V617F inhibitor. You talked about like a new solid dispersion formulation to address previous exposure issues. So what's the status there?
So we have the formulation. It's been testing on healthy volunteers, and that's going to enter the clinic this quarter. So that's why our guidance at second half of this year, we'll have data -- clinical data from the small molecule V617F inhibitor. I think it's important to remind everyone where that program is at, we escalated the dose over the course of 2025. We realized that we would not hit the exposures that we needed, we would not hit [ IC-35, ] which is what we predicted we needed to have a clinical impact in these patients. So to be clear, the hypothesis that inhibit and cytokines of V617F, we believe it's intact that if you inhibit that target, you will have clinical efficacy in patients with MPN. So we expect to have that data to confirm the hypothesis in the second half of '26.
And assuming the kind of exposure challenge has been addressed, what's the kind of target product profile you're seeking for that product?
I think it's pretty traditional what we've done in other -- with other medicines in MF and PV in this case. This is an important component of potentially for patients with polycythemia vera, which is improvement in the classic end points. That's what we need to see. We need to see improvement in SVR35, TSS50, hematocrit increases in PV, was basically the same thing. By blocking this target, we expect we're going to have, not only the impact on the clinical symptoms, but also impact the molecular endpoints like we saw with 989.
And Pablo just comment on the mutation frequency for 617 relative to CALR.
So the really important part there is, thank you for reminder, is in PV, 90% of the patients have V617 mutated. So that is a really, really large segment of the population. In MF, that segment is about 60% or so of the patients. So it's the majority of the patients have V617 mutations. Just to remind everyone, between 617F and CALR, you basically cover with one or the other, and they're mutually exclusive about 90% of all the patients with ET and MF and PV.
There is potentially a Gleevec moment with 989. Now we have a lot more work to do, and we have to convert Phase I information to Phase III. But if you think it took a decade for there to be appreciation in the hematology community that Gleevec was disease modifying. It was originally thought to be a glorified hydroxyurea that debt with blood counts. That's changed a lot. Now that's a fairly high bar, you got half to that concept, this is going to be a very meaningful product.
Okay. And then you talked about for Opzelura, the AD opportunity in Europe from like a volume perspective. What about price? How confident are you in the kind of being able to preserve price as you move into that space?
Yes, it's a good question. In -- most of our business for Opzelura in vitiligo is in France, Germany and Italy. And the prices there are 50% of what they are in the United States. In Germany, however, the price is much closer to the U.S. market, a big part of the growth of Opzelura in AD in Europe will come from Germany. And the way to think about is Opzelura becomes essentially a step ahead of Dupixent. There's -- that is a stopping point before going to an IL-13. I think the best benchmark is at current pricing with vitiligo, which is small. As a market in terms of prevalence, this business was $150 million just under. And so even it's 5x at a lower price, the ex U.S. business for Opzelura could be a $300 million incremental sales opportunity for Opzelura we think about the next five years.
So I guess when you talk about the core business, which are these kind of like approved non-Jakafi products, but not the kind of development stage products. Where do you think the -- there's the biggest disconnect between like where you see street numbers, and where you think those products are going?
Well, I think if you look at the historical rates on Opzelura, I mean, that business is growing at a 20%, 25% clip. I mean this year will be up over 30%. Niktimvo, obviously is in its first year, and new product launches are unpredictable. It had a very good first year, and there's still a lot of headroom there given the penetration of the third line plus market and as I mentioned, persistency. I think as we continue to progress into 2026. I think you probably see those numbers continue to be refined. And then Monjuvi, that's $200 million, $250 million product right now, I think that frontline DLBCL study, it's not about how it compares to Polivy. DLBCL is a heterogeneous cancer. R-CHOP is still standard of care, and we have solid data in terms of PFS and EFS, like I said, we'll go into the subgroup activity in the second half of the year. That's clearly not incorporated in any estimates for on Monjuvi. And you have a three-indication lymphoma treatment. There's value there.
Great. All right. So we're out of time. So thank you.
Thank you.
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Incyte — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
Incyte — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
📊 Kernbotschaft
- Strategie: Incyte positioniert sich weg von einem Jakafi-zentrierten Unternehmen hin zu drei Franchise-Bereichen: Hämatologie, Onkologie und Immunologie/Entzündung (IAI) mit Fokus auf skalierbares, durables Umsatzwachstum (ziel: 15–20% 5‑Jahres‑CAGR).
- Kerneffekt: Management sieht 2025 als Wendepunkt: Core ex‑Jakafi soll durch Opzelura, Niktimvo, Monjuvi & Co. deutlich wachsen und bis 2030 ähnlich groß wie Jakafi werden.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- R&D‑Fokus: 2026‑Budget "just north" of $2 Mrd; 80% davon auf sieben prioritäre Wirkstoffe – keine Streuung, Deadlines und klare Prioritäten.
- Pipeline: Sieben Hauptassets, größtenteils Phase‑III, 14 pivotal trials in 2026; Ziel: Net‑Peak‑Sales „north of $10 Mrd“ für das Portfolio.
- Produktstarts: Opzelura AD‑Launch Europa H2 2026 (Wirkung 2027), povorcitinib NDA Q1 2026 (Launch Ende 2026/Anfang 2027), Monjuvi neue Frontline‑DLBCL‑Indikation nach positivem Phase‑III‑Signal.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- 989 (CALR): FDA‑Meeting noch dieses Quartal; zweiteilige Entwicklungsroute: ET Phase‑III H1/2026 starten, MF pivotal H2/2026; subkutane Entwicklungsvereinbarung vorhanden.
- G12D (734): ASCO‑GI‑Update: Monotherapie ORR 37%, DCR 78%, Phase‑III‑Programm Frontline Pankreaskarzinom startet (gemeldet Q1‑Start).
- Povorcitinib: Ziel‑NDA Q1‑2026; breite Indikations‑Pipeline (HS, Vitiligo, Prurigo) mit erheblichem Marktpotenzial.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Kostensteuerung: Management plant breite OpEx‑Disziplin: G&A −5–10% 2026, S&M kontrolliert, R&D + (>10%) prioritär für die sieben Assets.
- 989‑Timelines: ET Phase‑III soll H1 starten; MF‑pivotal H2/2026; Diskussion über Endpunkte (24 vs. 52 Wochen) mit FDA noch offen.
- Märkte & Preis: Diskussion zu Europa‑Preisen (Opzelura teils deutlich niedriger als US) und zu China als Partner/Innovationsquelle.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Präsentation stellte klar umrissenen Plan vor: Konzentration der Investitionen auf wenige, potenziell wertschöpfende Assets und beschleunigte Phase‑III‑Initiierungen. Für Aktionäre heißt das: erhöhte klinische & kommerzielle Volatilität kurzfristig, aber sichtbarere Pfade zu mehreren neuen Umsatztreibern mittelfristig.
Incyte — Special Call - Incyte Corporation
1. Management Discussion
Okay. Good morning, everyone, and welcome. Welcome those of you here at -- in Orlando at ASH, and welcome those at the webcast. Apologies for the late start. We had to adhere to certain guidelines from ASH, and there was no way to schedule this. And 2 of our speakers were busy presenting actually scientific data at the meeting. So we were forced to start a little bit late. So thank you for your patience. I'm sure you had an opportunity to grab some lunch. We're going to spend the next 45 minutes or so reviewing data from our 989. We're going to call it 989 for short program with you. I think this data, some of it was presented in June of this year at AHA in patients with ET. And yesterday and today, you heard from 2 of our speakers today about the translational data and the data in MF. We think this is a really important moment for patients with MPNs and for Incyte. We think 989 not only has the potential to redefine the standard of care in patients with MPNs, but to really redefine the goal of therapy in these patients.
You're going to see a lot of data over the presentation about the ability of 989 to not just induce impressive clinical responses, but to really normalize hematopoiesis in some of these patients. And we believe that is, over time, going to show that the goal of therapy in these patients has changed. It's not just symptomatic improvement, but it's true potential for disease eradication. So we'll walk through that data. Forward-looking statements, our agenda here today, I'll be brief, and then I'll hand it over to Dr. Claire Harrison, who's going to talk about MF to again reset where we are with this disease today. John Mascarenhas, who just presented at ASH, will go over the data for the single-agent cohort in patients with myelofibrosis and the combination with ruxolitinib and Dr. Beth Psaila will talk about the translational data, which was presented yesterday. Our CMO, Steven Stein, will talk about the next steps and how are we advancing this new medicine into pivotal trials. We'll have plenty of time for Q&A.
Briefly introducing our speakers, Dr. Claire Harrison, I think many of you know her Deputy Chief Medical Officer at Guy's and Thomas' Hospital and Professor of Medicine at Guy's and Thomas' Hospital. John Mascarenhas, Director of the Center of Excellence for Blood Cancers and Myeloid Disorders and Professor of Medicine, the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai; and Bethan Psaila, Associate member of the Oxford Branch of the Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research and Professor of Hematology at the University of Oxford. Just to set things up for the next presentations, as you well know, almost all patients with myeloproliferative neoplasm have disease that is driven by 1 of 2 mutations that are mutually exclusive. That is a mutant CALR, a mutation that is about 25% of the patients with ET and 35% of mutant -- MF or a V617F mutation, which is the remaining of the ET/MF patients and almost all the patients with PV.
Our goal at Incyte is by the end of this decade to have a targeted therapy for every patient with the myeloproliferative neoplasm. So what you're going to see today with 989 is the first step in that journey, a journey that will continue with a T-cell engager for CD3 and CALR with the V617F inhibitor and other programs that we're working in discovery to address the needs of every patient with an MPN. To remind everyone, I think you heard probably a couple of times this over the last 2 days, so I won't spend a long time. 989 is a mutant CALR specific antibody. Mutant CALR protein binds in a mutated form with the TPOR receptor, travels to the surface of the cell and signals, and that is an oncogenic driver signal.
What the antibody does is disrupt that heterodimer, the complex is internalized and degraded. It is a specific targeted therapy for patients with mutant CALR myeloproliferative neoplasms. What you heard yesterday, today and you're going to hear tomorrow comes from these cohorts of studies. The monotherapy in patients with essential thrombocythemia will be presented tomorrow. We announced this morning that we received breakthrough designation for patients with essential thrombocythemia. We requested that from the FDA for patients with type 1 mutations. It's the data that we had at the time that was most compelling. We wanted to accelerate that approval. We received that. Now we're going to discuss with FDA the pivotal trials in patients with ET and Steven will talk more about that.
You heard from John, you're going to hear again today, monotherapy in MF and combination. And importantly, we are in the process of enrolling patients with naive MF, previously untreated disease to randomization of 989 versus 989 ruxolitinib. That data, which we'll have in 2026, will inform a potential first-line pivotal trial in patients with MF. These are the abstracts. I think you heard from the 2 on the right, the one on the left, it's going to be tomorrow, which is an update of the data that we presented on ET. I will now hand this over to Dr. Harrison so we can get with the kind of the agenda, and I look forward to seeing you in a few minutes for the Q&A. Claire?
Thank you very much. So it's my job to give you a whistle-stop reminder of myelofibrosis. I think the pictures kind of say it all really. This is a disease that all 3 of the clinicians at the podium struggle with and our patients have a constant battle with. You're aware of the key characteristics, clonal driver mutations, myofibrosis, splenomegaly and symptoms. Among the MPNs, because we are also talking about ET to some extent, of course, this is the disease with the worst prognosis for patients. Anemia is a key feature of this disease, and it becomes increasingly prevalent over time. So 35% of patients at diagnosis and then by 1 year, more prevalent. What you see on the right-hand side is survival of patients stratified by the presence of anemia of different degrees.
And you can see that severe anemia clearly has -- is a marker of a patient with the worst type of prognosis, 2.1 years. What we also know and have learned in recent times is that improvement of anemia is linked to survival benefit for our patients. So our management goals are controlling splenomegaly, alleviating anemia, improving symptoms, but primarily as clinicians, we want something that also is going to improve survival for our patients. The RNA isn't lost on me that in 2011, I was in a room like this with Incyte in search for stat sig offset presenting the data from the COMFORT study, which led to the approval of ruxolitinib, which is still the standard of care.
At that time, I said I thought 70% to 80% of patients with myelofibrosis would get that drug. And indeed, that's true today. It's a very good drug. It prolongs survival and improves quality of life for our patients. But when they fail that drug, there are very few other options for them. And what we see is often patients are cycling through other JAK inhibitors, which have the same target and the same or indeed, definitely in the second line, less benefit for patients. Once we move from our first-line JAK inhibitor, outcomes for these patients are poor. So this is my conclusion slide. I really don't think you as an audience need an introduction to the disease, but just to set you where we are today and where we hope to be in the future. Thank you very much. So John, I think I'm handing over to you.
Okay, Claire. Thanks for setting the stage. Now I'll get into the preliminary efficacy and safety results. This is from 2 Phase I dose escalation trials involving 989. This is the myelofibrosis data that we literally just presented and I'll just remind the group that the CALR mutation is present in at least 1/3 of the patients with myelofibrosis. There is a link between the higher VAF and worse outcome, including more advanced disease, anemia and increasing circulating blasts. And the treatments that we have right now are mainly JAK inhibitors. They're not mutant targeted. And the reality is we have very ineffective agents for reducing VAF as a surrogate for better outcomes. So there's a lot of rationale for why treating our MF patients that are mutant CALR expressing would make sense with an antibody. And this is the MF portion of this study, which also includes an ET cohort, and we're going to be discussing the results of patients, both monotherapy and combination who get 989 with mutant CALR positive disease.
Of course, it's a Phase I study, so it's DLT and treatment-emergent adverse events that are going to be characterized. We're also looking at secondary endpoints outcome measures. So what I'm going to do is focus first on the monotherapy cohort. This was 52 patients. You can see the baseline characteristics and demographics of these patients. I'll draw your attention to the distribution of types of CALR mutations that were present. The median VAF was 36%. And it was supposed to be a relapsed/refractory group of patients, although you could -- the investigator could deem a patient ineligible for a JAK inhibitor. So there were 10 patients that got on that had not seen a JAK inhibitor previously and I'll highlight that as well. And these are the baseline counts. The baseline spleen volume is 1,300, the symptom score 21. And you can see the various doses from 24 milligrams, which we started in the U.S., all the way to 2,500 milligrams ex U.S.
It is -- as I said, it is a super well-tolerated therapy. I've done in our Phase I studies that this is probably the best tolerated therapy I've seen in this setting. And you can see the treatment-related adverse events were 57%, Grade 3, 4, 30% and serious were 5. I'll just mention the one serious just in case it comes up as a question, was a patient who had monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis, which is not uncommon, and these diseases do progress. In this case, mantle cell lymphoma with the intestinal obstruction that I don't think is related to the study drug but could happen naturally in patients with myelofibrosis. There really were infrequent dose reductions and interruptions of the infusion. I should mention if it's not obvious, this is an infusion every 2 weeks. And there were no dose-limiting toxicities in this study.
And therefore, there was no maximally tolerated dose noted and 86.5% of patients remain on study, which is also, I think, quite remarkable, considering this is a relapsed/refractory population, and this is an unmet need with a very well-tolerated therapy. So it speaks to the fact that patients were coming every 2 weeks to get this therapy, and they were obviously seeing some sort of benefit not having toxicity that would keep that retention rate that. There were some AST elevations in 11 patients, 9 out of the 11 resolved, 1 grade -- 2 Grade 1s were ongoing at the time of the data cutoff. And what we saw was that patients who had Grade 1 elevations at baseline, which is very common because of extramedullary hematopoiesis were more likely to have this transient up and down effect of their LFTs that wasn't clinically significant or meaningful. And this didn't really lead to dose delays or discontinuations. So there was no -- importantly, there was no treatment-emergent adverse event profile that was dose related.
On the right, you can see the -- irrespective of attribution, the common adverse events of 15% or greater, very minimal Grade 3/4 toxicity and the things that you would normally expect in patients with advanced myelofibrosis including anemia and thrombocytopenia, are there at low frequency. So very well tolerated, very easy to give. We did see meaningful spleen responses with monotherapy 989 in this relapsed/refractory setting. What we've done is grouped the doses by low dose, 240 to 250 and then 400 to 2,500, which is in the darker blue columns and the asterisks note the patients who are type -- non-type 1 CALR mutant. So we saw at week 24, 42% of patients achieved an SVR25. That's a regulatory endpoint in the relapsed/refractory setting. 33% achieved an SVR35. If you look at best SVR, 48% and 31% achieved, respectively, at SVR 25 and 35. And most patients baseline assessments were performed prior to JAK inhibitor washout. So there's always that phenomenon that occurs.
If you look down below at week 24 data, it's pulled out by whether patients had a prior JAK inhibitor and in this evaluable population, the denominator is 7. So the responses, not surprisingly, are higher in terms of SVR in the JAK inhibitor naive group with SVR35 of 57% and 27.6% in the relapsed/refractory setting. We also saw symptom improvement, and I can attest to this both not just the study, but the patients that I personally treated. We also saw symptom improvement that was very reproducible. 93% of patients had experienced improvement in their symptoms, 60% achieved the regulatory endpoint of TSS50. And at week 24, 39% of patients had a TSS50. And again, the asterisks show us the non-type 1 patients. And if you look at week 24, the TSS50 response of 39% for all comers is not as high as the 60% in the non -- no prior JAK inhibitor therapy, which is, again, not surprising. I think really importantly, beyond the spleen and symptom benefit, we saw anemia benefit here. This is divided by the baseline anemia.
So in blue are the patients that would be deemed by IWG criteria to have anemia, less than 10 in a men and less than 11 grams per deciliter in a woman. Both green and blue curves improve pretty quickly, but I think it's quite notable that the anemic patients really have an improvement in their hemoglobin. We saw that in patients that were receiving transfusions and have a lady who's been out of the transfusion suite for over a year, and it's quite remarkable. So if you look at it from ELN-IWG 2024 response criteria, the response rate is 56%, and that includes 10 major responses and 4 minor responses. But all these responses are clinically meaningful to patients who are with myelofibrosis who are anemic. We did see VAF reduction as well. Again, it's color coded by dose range. I think what's complicated in looking in -- early in a Phase I study in a dose escalation study is that there was intra-patient dose escalation. So I don't know that we get the full picture here.
But nevertheless, 90% of patients had at least 1 post-baseline VAF assessment and 10% of those patients had achieved a 25% or greater reduction in their VAF. This is the combination. So that was all monotherapy data. So this was the 20 patients who came on. They were already on ruxolitinib and then 989 was added because they were deemed suboptimal responders. So you can see the baseline characteristics here. Again, 60% type 1, meaning CALR VAF is 39%. The median -- the mean daily dose of ruxolitinib was 35. So they weren't underdosed with ruxolitinib for the most part. And you could see the baseline counts, the TSS score is 15, spleen volume is quite large, 23, 51 and then the doses that were used in this dose ramp-up. Again, very well tolerated, tolerated as monotherapy, tolerated in combination with ruxolitinib, 55% Grade 3/4 treatment-emergent adverse events, 5 that were serious. There was a patient here who developed non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.
I would still argue that this is what we see in these patients with advanced disease very frequently. And there was very infrequent dose reductions, infusion interruptions or really dose delays. There were no DLTs and again, no MTD in combination with ruxolitinib. And the profile looks, I would say, rather similar to what we saw with monotherapy, what you would see with RUX treatment, maybe slightly more anemia, but only 10% thrombocytopenia Grade 3/4. Most patients did enjoy some spleen and symptom benefit, spleen is on the left and symptom is on the right. Again, color coded by dose. Best SVR at 65% achieved an SVR25 and 47% achieved an SVR35. At week 24, 50% and 25% hit those SVR25 and 35. In terms of symptoms, 81% of patients experienced a symptom improvement, 33% achieved a TSS50 at week 24. And there was -- on the right, you can see a stability in the hemoglobin curve.
There was one patient who was non-transfusion dependent who did have a major anemia response by IWG criteria, but we didn't see worsening anemia at all. So in conclusion, I feel very confident in saying 989, very well tolerated monotherapy and in combination with ruxolitinib in patients who have a suboptimal response. And there was no dose-limiting toxicities, and we did not even hit an MTD with this dose escalation. 87% of the patients remain on monotherapy, 85% remain on combination therapy. That's I still think quite remarkable. And we did see rapid and robust spleen and anemia response as well as symptom improvements.
And we saw at higher doses, which I didn't totally pull out here, at higher doses, we saw improvements in symptoms anemia even in the non-type 1 and type 2. So in my opinion, in my experience with some of these patients that at higher doses, you overcome what might look to be less responsiveness in these non-type 1 patients. And we did see reductions in mutant CALR VAF. What I didn't show here Beth is going to go over is some of the correlatives, which I really think speak to the this is really a potentially disease-modifying drug. So with that clear and robust proof of concept, I'm excited for Incyte to move forward with a pivotal registration study in the near future. So thank you.
Hi. So I'm going to go now over in a little bit more detail the molecular characterization of patients with myelofibrosis and ET who were treated with INCA033989. So you heard a little bit of background about the disease already from Claire and from Pablo, but just really to go over that in some detail again. So all MPNs arrive following the acquisition of a gene mutation in a blood stem cell that basically results in cytokine independent receptor signaling. In 1/3 of patients, that affects the gene encoding calreticulin. This actually came as a surprise when it was first discovered, reported actually in a pen session in 2013 at ASH because calreticulin is well known as a chaperone protein within the ER but hadn't been implicated in the context of blood malignancies before. So all known pathogenic mutations result in the same mutant-specific C-terminus on the protein, and that has 2 critical consequences.
One is it changes the charge on that C-terminus, which forms an aberrant complex with a thrombopoietin receptor. And the second is that protein then loses the signal that retains it within the ER and the complex travels up to the cell surface where it induces signaling and also presents a really excellent opportunity for targeted therapies. So you've heard already that INCA033989 is a first-in-class antagonist antibody being tested in the context of ET and myelofibrosis in 2 first-in-human clinical trials in previously treated patients. And it's been shown to inhibit oncogenic signaling and proliferation of cells. So Claire was going over some of the physiology of the disease, but just to recap in a little bit on that and give you a little bit more detail. So mutant CALR MPNs result in a significant burden of morbidity and mortality. So most patients present with a condition called ET or essential thrombocythemia.
Here, the mutation drives an increased number of megakaryocytes and platelets, and this causes significant symptoms that can have impacts on life and work productivity and also an increased incidence of bleeding events and thrombosis. Then 1/3 of patients will progress to a much more sinister cancer called myelofibrosis. So here, you get fibrotic remodeling of the bone marrow microenvironment and you get bone marrow failure, leading to cytopenias, in particular, anemia. And then extramedullary hematopoiesis occurs affecting the spleen primarily and patients get very painful splenomegaly and Claire showed a beautiful photo there in her image of a patient with a very large spleen. From this stage, 1 in 5 patients will progress further to a secondary leukemia that unfortunately is refractory to all leukemic therapies that we have. And patients at that stage have an incredibly poor prognosis, surviving usually 12 months after the diagnosis despite best available care.
This progression occurs slowly over years or even decades and is associated with a gradual expansion of that mutant clone and evidencing this, you can see that the CALR burden at baseline, the so-called VAF or variant allele frequency is higher in the MF patients than the ET patients at baseline. So one thing to note about -- when we talk about VAF is that most patients with mutant CALR MPNs actually have a heterozygous mutation. So the VAF is measuring the number of alleles, and it's telling you the percentage of alleles, which are mutant versus wild type. So when we talk about a 40% VAF, that actually means that 90% of all hematopoietic cells are mutant positive. And if we talk about a 5% reduction in VAF, that's actually a 10% reduction in the CALR mutant cells. So it's important to bear those in mind when we're looking at VAF changes is that they're actually half of the percentage change in cells overall mutant cells overall.
A second thing to highlight is that there are differences in terms of the bone marrow microenvironment and what's going on with the wild-type stem cells between patients with ET and patients with myelofibrosis. So in patients with ET, they have a lower level of VAF usually, and they also have -- they have a more normal bone marrow microenvironment. So they still have some ongoing wild-type hematopoiesis. And we're showing this here depicted as 2 taps, obviously, wild-type hematopoiesis and mutant hematopoiesis. With this therapy, you turn off the tap of the mutant clone, but the tap, which is running out the healthy cells, keeps going. Now in myelofibrosis, that tap is the wild-type tap is turned off more. And then when you turn off the mutant clone, the wild-type cells are going to take longer to recover for 2 reasons. One is because they were lower actually at baseline. And secondly, because this is happening in quite a perturbed microenvironment. The fibrosis that Claire showed is really quite profound.
So it's going to take longer for that to recover because the healthy cells, they need a healthy microenvironment. So that's how we're depicting that in this image, which I quite like actually, yes? Okay. So patients with myelofibrosis, we know they have greater clonal complexity at baseline and also -- progression is also associated with the development and the acquisition of additional mutations in addition to that first primary driver. And you can see that in this cohort. So basically, in the cohort tested in these studies, 1/3 of patients with ET and almost 80% of patients with myelofibrosis had an additional co-occurring mutation. And those are shown on this plot here. And you can see that many of those mutations are in high-risk genes, so ASXL1, EZH2 and TP53, just to call out a few, and these are gene mutations associated with progression to leukemia. So this slide shows the ET efficacy data or highlights of that, that was presented or will be presented tomorrow.
And what you're looking at here is the effect on the platelet count. So you can see the median platelet count here is around 1,000. That's significantly high. But within -- by cycle 2, so after only 2 infusions of antibody therapy, you can see it's normalized. It's reached the normal range. So that's after only 2 infusions. So a very rapid decline here, rapid efficacy and normalization of the platelet count. And that response then is maintained over the course of the study. And you're looking here -- the results are shown here over the first 6 months. You can also see that there are more consistent decreases in platelet counts in patients receiving these higher dosing cohorts. But looking on the right, so this is now showing that those hematological responses are actually correlating with decreases in mutant CALR VAF in the mutant clone burden, again, split by low dose and high dose. And the lines here represent individual patients.
What you can see in the ET cohort is that there are these rapid decreases in mutant CALR VAF occurring by around cycle 4 and then being maintained over the first 12 months here on study. And that's more consistently seen in patients on the higher doses and correlates to see more consistently in patients who are achieving durable hematological responses. Patients with myelofibrosis. So John very nicely presented the impressive impact on spleen reductions. And here, I'm correlating again those responses with VAF reduction. So you can see again an association between clinical responses and molecular responses. So in this part, again, you're looking at individual patients in the columns and the columns are colored according to the best change in mutant CALR VAF. So the deep blues and greens are patients who've had deeper changes in their mutant CALR VAF. Again, you can see that 48% of patients achieved an SVR25 and 31% of patients achieved an SVR 35%.
These are impressive responses considering this is a second-line setting. So the majority of these patients have already received ruxolitinib therapy. And again, these lines are now showing the changes in the mutant CALR VAF over time, low dose, high dose. And what you can see here is that, again, changes to the mutant CALR VAF correlate with SVR and/or anemia response. And the dynamics of this change are slightly different. You can see here that they're continuing to decrease even by -- after 10 or 12 cycles on therapy. So to dive in a little bit then in more detail. So I mentioned that the mutant CALR protein is only expressed on the cell surface of cells, which also bear the TPO receptor. Now fortunately, in the setting of MPNs, this is actually 2 different cell types. Firstly, it's the stem cells. These, of course, are the cancer initiating and maintaining cells, the ones which is really crucial to hit.
And then the second cell type, which expresses the thromboprotein receptor are cells of the megakaryocyte lineage. So these are the cells which are implicated as the key drivers of fibrosis and inflammation in the bone marrow. So these 2 cell types are the direct targets of antibody therapy. Now all the other cells, are more downstream progenitors, myeloid cells, lymphoid cells, they're so-called silent mutant CALR carriers. They're mutant positive, but they don't express the protein on the cell surface, and therefore, they're not direct target of therapy, but they are major contributors to the VAF when it's measured in whole blood. And I'll go into that in a bit more detail. To drill into this then, we performed single-cell multiomic testing on single cells isolated from the peripheral blood of the subset of patients with ET and myelofibrosis. And these cells were analyzed using a platform that enables targeted immunophenotyping in parallel with genotyping.
And that data is represented on these UMAP plots. So in these plots, each dot represents a single cell. The cells are then clustered and annotated according to their expression of cell surface markers that identify them as these different cell types. And then the dots are then colored according to whether they're wild-type in gray or mutant in red. And to pick out just 2 features, you can see that in the myelofibrosis patients, there are expanded populations of stem cells and these erythroid progenitor cells here. So when we -- as hematologists, when we look at the blood form of these patients, these are changes that we classically see. You see mobilization of stem cells to the peripheral blood and then you see these very aberrant nucleated red cells that aren't normally present in the peripheral blood. So those are features that represent this transition to myelofibrosis. The second thing to note then is the so-called silent carriers are really in very high abundance.
So high numbers of mutant monocytes, NK cells, B cells, which is very interesting. And also actually some T cells are also mutant, yes, seen on these plots. So first, focusing then on these stem cells. These, of course, are the most important cells to hit because of the cancer initiating and maintaining cells. On the right, you can see rapid decreases with therapy in the percentage of mutant CD34-positive stem and progenitor cells over time. And you can see that the lower levels of mutant CALR HSPCs in patients with ET also decreased with therapy. So in contrast, when we look at those silent carrier cells, we see much more minimal reductions at these early time points. This is Cycle 1, Cycle 4, just 4 months on therapy, and there really are much more minimal changes in these cell types. This is what we would expect. And the important thing to note is that these cells are terminally differentiated and don't have any long-term repopulating ability.
So these cells will be expected to decline with time if we're getting true targeting of the stem cells as they won't be replenished. Instead you'll be replenishing wild-type downstream cells. So then we also need to assess the burden of mutant megakaryocytes, and this is depicted really beautifully in these slides. So to do that, you can perform immunohistochemistry on bone marrow biopsy sections, and we're fortunate to have an antibody that works really specifically and only identifies only stains mutant CALR, doesn't stain wild-type CALR. So this is an exemplar image from a patient with ET. You can see these abnormal clusters, too many megakaryocytes in the bone marrow, and they're all staining positive for mutant CALR. Cycle 7, you can see a significant reduction in the mutant megakaryocytes. And these changes here are quantified across the cohort of patients, and you can see quite dramatic reductions in total megakaryocytes and mutant megakaryocytes and a really nice increase here in the percentage of megakaryocytes that are wild-type, so non-staining for mutant CALR.
And that correlates very nicely with improvements in fibrosis. And of course, changes to fibrosis will take time and actually is quite a difficult thing to assess. So it's graded in these big buckets. So what about anemia? John also mentioned a very nice benefit in terms of anemia responses in the patients with myelofibrosis. So 56% of patients achieved either a major or minor anemia response. So correlating that with what's going on with disease pathophysiology, the first thing we were able to show is that these anemia responses correlated with the clearance of these atypical circulating mutant CALR-positive Erythroid Progenitors that I mentioned. So they decrease. And then interestingly, we saw an increase looking in the bone marrow at CD71 positive cells, reflecting Erythroid Progenitor. So what this is reflecting is we're getting a renormalization of bone marrow hematopoiesis and recovery of healthy hematopoiesis occurring within that bone marrow microenvironment.
Finally, then perhaps most importantly, we also saw nice responses in patients who have not only the primary mutant CALR driver, but also these co-occurring mutations. So if we look at the patients with myelofibrosis who had a co-occurring mutation, 40% of those patients benefited from either a spleen volume or an anemia response. And then 2 patients here who have very high clonal complexity are shown, for example. So these are what we call fish plots. In these plots, the blue area represents the healthy wild-type hematopoiesis and then the colored areas, the mutant CALR clone is shown in orange and then the additional mutations in EZH2, SF3B1 and KRAS for patient 1, ASXL1 and EZH2 for patient 2 are shown in other colors. And you can see with treatment, this reduction in all clones and recovery of the wild-type hematopoiesis.
So then to conclude, INCA033989 treatment results in rapid normalization of platelets in ET, splenomegaly symptoms and anemia in myelofibrosis. These clinical responses are associated with rapid reductions in the mutant CALR clone burden. And this is really demonstrating a speed and depth of response that hasn't previously been seen with other therapies tested in this setting. And importantly, is highlighting the VAF as a relevant and measurable endpoint. The clinical responses were also observed in patients who have co-occurring high-risk mutations, including those associated with increased risk of progression to AML and the improvements in the bone marrow really reflecting recovery of the bone marrow hematopoiesis. And this really supports the potential of INCA033989 therapy to modify the disease of patients with mutant CALR MPNs. Thank you. With that, I'll hand the podium back to Pablo for the Q&A, and thank you for your attention.
Given the extremely encouraging data you just saw presented by the prior speakers, Bill and Pablo get to invite me to talk about next steps. And using the words extremely encouraging here may be classic British understatement given the robustness of the proof of concept you just saw. So the mutation landscape here defines the opportunity for the development in myelofibrosis. In the United States, there are approximately 25,000 people living with myelofibrosis. CALR, as shown to you is the second most common mutation after JAK2 in myelofibrosis and occurs in approximately 35% of these patients. If you use SVR35 as a surrogate for response, only about approximately 1/3 of patients currently benefit with available therapies, thus defining the unmet need in this population. And the unmet need may be best addressed by innovative approaches targeting underlying molecular drivers like the mutant CALR mutation.
Our program will focus across the board in all types of mutations, but just to point out that if you look at type 1 or type 1 like in myelofibrosis, that constitutes about 76% of the population as illustrated on the top right for you. The data shown today, and I think John defined a new term on the podium this morning, super well tolerated. I think in our world, when we say generally well tolerated, it could be like 90% febrile neutropenia, but super well tolerated, I think, really reflects the incredibly well-tolerated drug this is and then indirectly reflected by 85% plus of patients remaining on therapy in both cohorts. Just to be clear, no dose-limiting toxicities were seen and no maximum tolerated dose was defined as is common case with targeted therapies. As prior speakers just showed you, rapid and robust reductions in spleen volume in both the monotherapy and combination cohorts. The week 24 data is pointed out because that is a typical regulatory endpoint.
But this was, as John pointed out, an ongoing dose escalation and expansion study, and there is some expectation that people who are given the correct dose for the right length of time may actually have increased rates of response here. But in this study, 42% of patients achieved an SVR25 and 33% of patients and SVR35 at week 24, respectively. Symptom improvement was seen in the vast majority of patients in monotherapy, 93% and the combination cohorts, 81%. And then specifically looking at the binary validated endpoint that we used, TSS50 at week 24 monotherapy in an ongoing escalation study, 39% with monotherapy and 33% with combination therapy achieved TSS50 with the caveat that this is not randomized data, obviously.
Again, as shown by John, the trifecta, if you will, after spleen and symptoms seen in an unprecedented way, I would add, anemia improvements as well, with 56% of the evaluable patients by the definition, achieving an anemia response and in fact, 40%, a major response by the Tefferi criteria. At the higher doses, reductions in spleen volume, symptom improvement and anemia response was seen in both type 1 and non-type 1 patients. And then as Bethan just showed you, the potential for disease-modifying activity, very elegantly demonstrated by her by the decreases in mutant CALR megakaryocytes seen and the increase in erythroid progenitor cells, which probably then translated to the anemia improvements that we saw in the actual data. So where will we go? Next year, we will begin based on the breakthrough designation that we announced this morning, a Phase III trial, hopefully by the middle of the year in second-line ET.
Because speed is of the essence here and not to wait for the subcu development to be ready, we will begin the study with an IV Q2 week of 989 first best available therapy. The actual doses, et cetera, will be determined after regulatory consultations, which are going on at the moment. The intent is also to begin a second-line myelofibrosis study based on the dose expansion you've seen going on now with dose selection being finalized over time and to begin that study in the second half of 2026. Currently, it is planned to begin with the IV therapy as well, again, given speed is of the essence, but there is some potential to use the subcu if that is ready in time.
And then based on the ongoing Phase I in the first-line setting, which includes monotherapy 989 plus the combination, when those results are delivered in the second half of 2026, the intent is that will inform a first-line pivotal trial design. The subcu development, you saw the announcement, the Enable agreement is signed. The EnFuse device is going into the clinic in early 2026 in a Phase I in both ET and MF. And we will -- if we use this IV in the registration studies, we'll do a bridging study to use those in those 2 settings. With that, I'll hand the podium back to Pablo for the Q&A, and thank you for your attention.
Thank you, Steven. We will now -- do we have microphones? Yes, we have microphones. We open the floor for Q&A, and then we'll go to the webcast as well.
Okay. Alex to start -- okay.
2. Question Answer
Brian Abrahams, RBC. First off, congrats on the data. I wanted to dig into those 7 patients who were JAK naive or ineligible just to gauge how representative they might be for a treatment-naive population, the treatment-naive population that you're studying. Just is there anything you can tell us about the characteristics of the responders there, whether they were type 1, what doses that they were on? And then maybe for the clinicians, is this the population, a JAK ineligible CALR mutant population where you could foresee using 989 as a monotherapy in the front line? And how large is that subgroup in your practice?
So let me touch first the definition of ineligible was determined by the investigators. Most of these patients were deemed ineligible because of anemia. In terms of the future, we intend to develop 989 in all patients in first line of treatment-naive MF, not just in this cohort. This cohort is included -- this was of patients was included in the study because of the Phase I study, and we didn't want to take RUX-eligible patients. In the long run, our vision is that this medicine is going to be used in first-line MF regardless of eligibility for Jakafi. I don't know, John, Claire or one of you wants to comment on that population.
No. I mean I can just agree that the major region -- major reason that the investigator deemed those patients ineligible was anemia, which we see with CALR mutation. So I think in those cases, the thought process was that maybe a JAK inhibitor wouldn't bring the same kind of benefit and the patient -- so I got to tell you, patients are interested in this therapy. That's the other thing that gets missed in this is that I didn't think we had so much CALR mutant patients until this antibody came out. And now there's all these CALR mutant patients that come out of the woodworks in the community practice, which is where most of MF is.
So my clinic is inundated with CALR mutant patients. And many of them don't understand why they would have to fail a JAK inhibitor. It doesn't make sense for them to have to wait to get it. Even though this is a first-in-human Phase I study, I mean, we had patients that were more than happy to go on. So if the patient had anemia and we weren't clear that the spleen and symptom burden was such that it would necessarily require a JAK inhibitor and the patient wanted to, and that was often the case, they could out.
Just one thing to add as well as anemia, the other risk reason can also be infection risk because, of course, JAK inhibitors do increase your risk of infections. So that's often patients are very aware of this. I work in Oxford and our patients tend to be very educated crowd. So they often come to you with the statistics about toxicities of treatment. So infection is another one. And just to echo the idea that actually our thoughts about this therapy probably eligibility for JAK inhibitor isn't necessarily how you would see eligibility for this drug because you use JAK inhibitors when you want to achieve spleen and symptom responses.
Here, we're looking at spleen and symptom anemia and, of course, then disease modification. So you may -- you have different criteria thinking about eligibility for agents like this.
And then finally, just to say, we use JAK inhibitors currently in patients with pretty advanced disease. We're testing this agent in ET, which is generally a precursor for myelofibrosis. I think generally, the community tends to wait quite late to treat myelofibrosis patients. I think we would be really looking to intervene early and halt the disease.
Steven?
Yes. And Brian, just to add, what -- I think what you're alluding to and what's potentially really encouraging about this data set, though imperfect, it may be a surrogate for first line because they're JAK ineligible, 5 of 7 get SVR35, 60% plus SVR35 rate with all the caveats. Obviously, our first-line study is ongoing, but if that carries through to first line, that's truly high activity there.
Next question. Where are we going? Great, I think it's...
Erik from Mizuho, Erik Lavington, sorry. So I'm just wondering what sort of time line you'd be looking for VAF reduction in the MF patients to get the majority of them over the 50% reduction?
Well, it's a good question. We're going to ask Beth to comment. We don't have a time line for that. I would take a step back and remember what we just saw, which is that 989 impacts every relevant clinical endpoint, SVR35 symptoms and the anemia data, which I would argue is completely unprecedented in this disease for single agent in this population, the 50-plus percent improvement in anemia, we thought it was remarkable. And importantly, it does all those things, not in a symptomatic way, but it does all those things because it's literally reducing the burden of the disease in these patients.
Measuring VAF, I believe, and Beth can confirm is a lagging indicator for what's going on in the bone marrow and what's going on with the cancer stem cells in peripheral blood. Over time, we're confident VAF will continue to go down. If you shut the faucet, as Beth showed, it's going to happen. We don't have a specific goal how long it should take and how low it should go. It's obviously good to see. But that -- so silent carriers will have to die out in the peripheral blood for the peripheral blood VAF to continue to go down. So I don't know, Beth, if you want to?
I might have called a tap rather than a facet, but that's okay.
The tap.
Just, yes. Yes. I think we're kind of in uncharted territory when it comes to knowing what the dynamics of the VAF changes should be and even in terms of how low you need to go and what happens when you stop therapies because actually, we don't have other therapies that reliably reduce the VAF in mutant CALR MPNs. So to relate it perhaps to interferon, which is probably the best drug we have in the context of JAK2 mutant MPNs, those reductions are incredibly slow. And often, we don't even bother measuring it until a year after someone's on therapy.
And of course, that then ends up being typically very clinically meaningful. So I think we need a lot more information to understand this. So slow reductions could be very meaningful. As you were just saying, it may underrepresent when we look in whole blood, what's happening in that important stem cell compartment. And then when it comes to thinking about the depth of response that's required, that again, is uncertain. But you could argue given that we know this is a disease that evolves over years or decades that a small reduction in VAF is very meaningful because it can push the disease back by years or decades. And that is an important goal for these patients.
Once again, to emphasize, the right things are happening. We're reducing cancer initiating cells. We're reducing malignant megakaryocytes. We're reducing malignant erythroid progenitors. All those things are happening, and they're happening pretty fast. VAF, will get there. Next?
It's Michael Schmidt with Guggenheim. Pablo. Nice data read. Congrats on the Phase I data. How are you thinking about dose selection in expansion cohorts and -- in Phase III? And are you considering different doses for ET and MF, for example? And then what about type 1 and type 2 patients? And could you comment -- I know there was intra-patient dose escalation. And what dose did the type 2 patients get up to in this study?
So let me separate the 2 scenarios here, the 2 diseases. In ET, as we announced this morning, we got breakthrough designation. We have initiated conversations with FDA already about the design of a Phase III trial and the dose selection. We're very close to the dose selection in ET. Our goal here is to develop 989 across the spectrum of mutations in both ET and MF, first of all. The dosing strategy, in order for me to give a definitive answer, I need a little bit of time. We are finalizing the dose selection for ET. We're almost there. We're very close.
Platelet normalization is such a rapid and simple PD marker, if you may. It's obviously a goal of therapy, but it's also a PD marker in ET that it makes the dose selection simpler. So that's -- we're very close. In MF, a little bit more data. Particularly important there is going to be the data in naive patients that we're generating as we speak in order to lead to dose selection. Will the dose in ET and MF will be different, I can't comment right now. What I can tell you is that the pivotal plans that we are working on will encompass all types of mutations and the dosing strategy may be slightly different in ET and MF.
[indiscernible] occurred really fast after 2 cycles, I think. So for example, could you consider a low-frequency maintenance dosing in that setting?
It's a good question. The antibody has a short half-life. We haven't dosed patients with less frequent administration. It is something we've discussed and it's something we're contemplating maybe as a maintenance therapy perhaps, but we're not there yet. It's a good question.
This is Srikripa from Truist. Congrats on the data today. So one on ET. The breakthrough designation is for a subset of ET patients. Can you remind us what percent of ET patients those are? And also, how does that read through to the whole program that you have? And then for the MF, maybe a follow-up question for Brian's question. In the monotherapy, you had no high-risk patients. You only had intermediate 1 and intermediate 2 risk patients, I think. In the combination, you did have high-risk patients. How do these high-risk patients perform? If you can give any color, that would be helpful.
Yes. It's a -- the latter is a good question. We're going to have to get back to you on that. I mean we're starting to slice these groups a little bit too much for me to have those numbers on top of my head. I think the difference is simply one is a combination with Jakafi, the other a single agent is a Phase I study. And as a first-in-human study, I think high-risk patients are a little bit more difficult to treat. To the first question you asked, so about 55%, 60% of ET patients are type 1. And I think, Steven, one thing that we start thinking about is Steven showed this in his slide, there's type 1, there's type 2 and then there's others. And in the other category, there's a type 1 like and type 2 like mutations. The picture is a little bit more complex. We still believe that based on the data and the data you're going to see an update tomorrow, 989 works across a range of mutations.
Maybe there's a difference in sensitivity in different mutations. But over time, responses are seen in patients with all kinds of mutations, particularly as you push the dose. The breakthrough designation was in type 1 patients because at the time when we had the submission, the data was more compelling in type 1, and we wanted to get that out of the way and engage with FDA. I see no reason why the trial will not be running all comers with all mutations. There's clear responses in patients with non-type 1 mutations across both ET and MF. And I think John showed some of that data today, and you're going to see some of that data tomorrow. In fact, if you look at the 10 patients with type 2 mutations in the waterfall that were treated with doses of 400 or higher, 3 of the 10 are SVR35.
So it's a response rate of 30%. So this medicine works across a range of mutations. Time and dose are 2 variables that we need to keep in mind. The other variable we need to keep in mind is washout. Remember, these patients were treated with no mandatory washout. And that's a very important point when you look at the benchmark data. So a lot of these patients rebounded between the assessment for the study and when therapy started. As we know, when you discontinue Jakafi, some of the patients have a rebound. So keep that in mind as you look at benchmarks in the literature that these patients had no mandatory washout. I see nodding from our panel. So hopefully, we -- go ahead.
Just to comment, we use momelotinib as we did in Simplify 2 with no washout, the spleen response rate was 7%, and they failed on the symptoms, so just as...
I was going to say like thank you, [indiscernible] yes, 7% is the Simplify study. The MOMENTUM study at 22% SVR35 that had mandatory washout of 2 weeks, I believe. The Simplify had a spleen response of 7%. So when you look at these results that we just showed you, keep that number in mind.
Pablo, Tazeen Ahmad, Bank of America.
Good to see you. How are you?
A couple of questions from me. Can you just give us a little bit of clarity on where you are in the subcu formulation development, especially as it relates to ET, is that going to be particularly important in getting traction in that population in your view? And then can I ask one quick question on the combo data that you presented today? You've already guided coming into this meeting that, that level of detail would be limited. But as it relates to SVR35, I think you had 25% of patients achieving that. Can you just give a sense of what a good number would be over time as you collect more data in patients for combo?
Let me start with the second question. So I don't -- first of all, that population is not a -- that's not a study we're going to do, right? The suboptimal responders at 989. We had to do that data. It's a first-in-human study. The safety question about combining 989 with Jakafi had to be addressed and then understand a little bit of what it does on top of Jakafi. I think the cohort that matters, Tazeen, is the one we're doing now in naive patients of 989 versus 989 Jakafi. So I don't have a target in mind what that data looks like. We were pleased to see that on top of Jakafi, and these are people that were on Jakafi for at least 12 weeks and got to a level of response and did not respond further.
And when we added 989, not only it was well tolerated, as John highlighted, but we saw stabilization of the anemia and improvements in spleen and symptom. The subcu, it's going to enter the clinic early 2026. The formulation we have it in hand. It's going to start being tested. We have the agreement for the device. So the idea is to incorporate that in pivotal trials as early as possible. As Steven highlighted, Likely, the ET second-line study will start with IV, and we'll do a bridging later on. We're pushing to see if we can include the subcu formulation in some of the pivotal studies that will start later in 2026. We'll have more details for you probably in the new year, but it's -- we're accelerating that as much as possible. I don't know who has the mic, over here.
Thanks. Yes, congrats on the data, and I appreciate the event here. So just first question on the SVR responses. It looks like between the 2 dose cohorts that you kind of look at, it's fairly flat. But when you look at TSS, it looks like a little bit more of a dose response. So just kind of curious if you can reconcile what you think is going on there. And then second question, just curious on the Jakafi dose intensity in the combo trial.
Yes. I'm going to go to Steven on the Jakafi dose intensity. Let me address the first part. The challenge with looking at the dose response with the data that we show you is there's 3 or 4 variables that you have to keep in mind when you look at SVR35 or any other clinical endpoint here. You have dose, you have time on therapy, which is different, particularly higher doses tend to have shorter follow-up. You have type of mutation, which we think it works across the board, but there's different sensitivity. And you have washout. Most of the patients did not have it, but there are some patients that perhaps did. So when you put those 4 factors, I think concluding that the dose response is flat, I'm not there. I do think that there's clear evidence that at the higher doses, the responses, particularly non-type 1 seem to be higher. The drug -- and to borrow John's term, again, is super well tolerated. So we believe a higher dose might be the best way to develop this across all types of mutations perhaps. Do you have a comment on the -- maybe John, on the Jakafi dose intensity?
I'll try first. I think if you saw John's slide, the mean dose delivered was, I think, 33 milligrams. If you look at real-world use of RUX in the United States, about 15 BID. So they get in what consistent with how the drug is used real world and then guidance per label on how to dose reduce, et cetera. I don't know if John wants to comment further.
Yes, I mean so going in, it was 33, and I don't think that, that dropped on study. So it wasn't like they were being dose reduced. And this was -- these are patients that recruited at MF centers where we typically maximize the dose, it's going to be different than what you see in the community where it's typically lower doses. So from my perspective, I think that, that population that we see represents what we would normally see.
Guys, Gavin Clark-Gartner from Evercore ISI. So for the experts up here, for the anemia benefit, I'm hearing that a lot of investors are cross comparing against momelotinib. And I guess the reality is the way they achieve the anemia benefit is very different, restoring hematopoiesis versus getting a boost from the ACVR1. Do you think we can cross compare those benefits across both therapies? I guess based on the data we have today, do you believe mCALR is disease-modifying?
Let's go all 3. Claire, you go first.
I definitely think it's disease modifying. We don't see this kind of benefit with a JAK inhibitor. We just don't. And on the subject of anemia response, you may remember at ASH a few years ago when Steven and I presented the data on bone marrow fibrosis, difference between momelotinib and ruxolitinib. I think we don't see the mechanism of anemia response here is different. And maybe momelotinib just has different affinity to JAK2 and therefore, causes less anemia. I think we're comparing apples and pears or taps and facets, maybe not.
Beth, do you want to comment on...?
Just to say I completely agree. They're totally different drugs. We use them in different settings. I think to relate to momelotinib, GSK have done some really nice analysis actually correlating overall survival with anemia benefits and achieving transfusion independence. I think that data is relevant to this setting as well. So the impact of improving anemia is relevant to do the comparison, but the mechanisms here are completely different. This drug is disease-modifying. We're getting recovery of hematopoiesis, healthy hematopoiesis with this drug. Momelotinib is working very differently, does have clear benefits for the portion of patients who benefit from anemia, no doubt about that, but it's a different mechanism.
I would just add that it's not obviously the mechanism, as it was highlighted by our experts clearly different. The magnitude is completely different. I mean when you look at the momelotinib difference, a 10% difference, which just showed you a 56% difference mostly in Jakafi pretreated patients. I think you have a follow-up.
Yes. Just a follow-up. Did you disclose the percent of patients who had SVR35 or an anemia response? Like were those co-occurring in the same patients? Or there are like groups of patients who are spleen responders versus anemia responders?
There is a high degree of overlap between the SVR35 and anemia responders. It's not 100%, but there is, yes.
Marc Frahm from TD Cowen. Maybe on the TSS, there's a pretty big gap between the best TSS50 number of up to like 60% versus the at 24-week time point. Can you just comment on how much of that is purely driven by limited follow-up for those incremental patients versus some of the patients potentially losing their TSS50 at longer follow-up? And then maybe for the physicians, I think one thing a lot of people are struggling with is exactly how to interpret that combo. And are there any real signs in there that you would point to of a clear sign that there's synergy or additive efficacy happening opposed to it's really just the monotherapy CALR that's driving some benefit there?
So John, Claire or Beth, if you want to address the second part, and then I'll come back to the TSS50 question.
So I could tell you a story about one of my patients that's on the combination. I maybe misunderstood your question about synergy, but I have a patient whose father died of myelofibrosis the year before we started testing ruxolitinib. And he had, had a thrombocytosis for many years, came to us, had a CALR mutation. He's also got 2 ASXL1 mutations. He's a very anxious man. He ran to the hospital halfway through his conditioning for bone marrow transplant. He had a -- he is on 25 milligrams twice daily of ruxolitinib, so maximum dose and was transfusion-dependent coming into the study. His spleen was all the way across his abdomen. We added 989 at 750 milligrams. His spleen is almost unpalpable and his transfusions have almost but not quite disappeared. So I definitely think there is an added benefit. Whether it's synergy or not, I think biologically, it's difficult to say, but I think it's nicely illustrated by patient story. Only symptoms are better as well.
The preclinical data that we presented clearly shows that these 2 are synergistic. I think the question as we move forward with the first-line study is one of the most impressive things we've seen is the impact of 989 on anemia, I think. And obviously, we know what the side effects of Jakafi are and whether that suppression of hematopoiesis will impair the ability of 989 to deliver full benefit on anemia in first line is something we need to assess. That's the cohort that's ongoing right now. On the TSS50 question, it's a follow-up issue, Marc. It's just some of the patients have an equal follow-up. Some of them have very few assessments. All right.
Ash Verma at UBS. So I know you mentioned a few times about the sensitivity between type 1 and type 2 patients. Like is it possible that your very strong efficacy in type 1 versus not as much in type 2, whereas the prelude molecule I've heard they have characterized it as equally potent across the 2?
If you look at the patients in the waterfall that received 400 or higher, the SVR35 in those patients is 30%. In the whole population, the SVR35 is 32%. I think that tells you clearly that at slightly higher doses, the responses in SVR35 -- the responses in non-type 1 or type 2 in that case are there. Some of the patients may need a higher dose, some of the patients may need a slightly longer therapy to get there. But I think we have clear evidence in this presentation, both in ET tomorrow and in MF today that 989 works across mutations.
James Shin, Deutsche Bank. Will the pivotal studies include stratification for type 1 versus type 2?
What's that?
Stratification for type 1 versus type 2.
Yes.
Second question is how long for the pivotal ET trial to enroll and read out? And third, for the panelists, I recognize 989 is super well tolerated, but have ALT and AST signals in other second-line MF trials been seen? And any hypothesis on what caused the signal? Were there any baseline features or comorbidities that may have contributed?
Let me before we ask -- so the details you're asking on the design and time lines for pivotal trials we will disclose over time. I'm not in a position today to tell you exactly. I think that the broad terms are, we will enroll patients across a range of mutations. We are finalizing the dose selection for AT and the data we're generating in naive patients with MF will lead to the dose selection. We'll discuss those with FDA, and then we'll provide further details on that. Before I ask John to talk about the LFTs, when you look at the AST elevations in the MF, the single-agent cohort, I think it's important to remember a couple of things. One, half of the elevations were present at baseline, okay? That tells you that there's a background rate of AST elevation in these patients.
65% of patients with MF have extramedullary hematopoiesis in the liver. So there's something going on there. And we are killing those cells. You should expect that some inflammatory reaction is happening when that happens. All but 2 patients recovered on study. One of those 2 had it at baseline and both are Grade 1. The last one is still going, but it's a grade 1 AST elevation. So there's no reason to believe mechanistically that 989 produces liver toxicity. And I think the LFTs are largely explainable as a result of the background of the disease. John, I don't know if you want to comment further.
I don't know that I could add anything beyond that. I mean it didn't seem to be very clinically concerning signal. And from a clinical investigator standpoint, doesn't stop me from saying super well tolerated.
Let me make one more comment. It was in the slide, but perhaps it was a lot of text in some of the slides. It was a patient that had -- the one Grade 3 AST elevation happened at 50 milligrams. That patient was the dose was suspended. It recovered. The patient was rechallenged. It's now currently at 1,500 milligrams, no reoccurrence of the LFT. So that's another important point to make. Beth?
Yes. I was going to make a similar anecdote actually about a patient in the combo cohort who was on -- entered in a relatively low dose, did have a transaminitis. And then since her disease has improved, extramedullary hematopoiesis has improved and just since dose escalated without any toxicity so.
Yes.
Pablo, Ren Benjamin from Citizens. I don't think I've ever seen this range of a dose exploration before. And so I'm kind of curious, if you separate out the lower dose ranges from the higher dose ranges, is there a signal in the side effect profile that might be coming out?
A signal?
And the side effect profile, right, that might be coming out.
I mean -- no right now. Let me make a comment on why the range of doses. First of all, there were 2 studies that we're looking at as one, but there were really 2 studies. And the reason for that was we were allowed to start at a lower dose or a higher dose, I should say, in Australia as opposed to the U.S. And if you go back 2 years, and some of you remember these conversations, there was a concern, a hypothetical concern that because 989 will eliminate the malignant clone and patients have a very small residual wild-type clone, the drug will lead to profound cytopenias. That clearly hasn't happened. The opposite is happening. In fact, patients' anemia is getting better and better over time. So because of that, we started low. We would have started the dose higher. The drug have a perfectly clean tox profile. So there's no pattern in terms of dose dependency of any of the side effects at this point. That's why we kept pushing the dose.
And just as a follow-up, do the co-occurring mutations decrease over time as well? Or are you noticing any certain co-mutation clones that might be compensated?
We have not. I think this is a question that has come up. We have no evidence in our hands in the patients that we looked at that there is an emergence of new mutations that are driver mutations in this disease. I don't know if Beth wants to comment on that, but we just have not seen it.
Yes.
And by the way, I would comment, you have patients in CML with 8, 10 years of therapy. And with this mutation still in BCR-ABL, there's no secondary mutations that lead to resistance in that case.
Just to echo that, I think the data -- the fish box I was showing were showing reductions in both the mutant CALR clone and high-risk mutations as well, including one patient had a KRAS mutation. That's very significant, also decreasing with therapy. And the vast majority of patients with MF have their co-mutations in the same clone as the mutant CALR. You will get some rare patients where they're in separate clones, but the vast majority are in the same.
Okay. Etzer Darout, Barclays. I realize the goal here is to sort of move mCALR to frontline. But just curious in your immunophenotyping genotyping work if in ET and MF patients, if you've looked at what impact prior JAK exposure has on levels of mCALR or other relevant markers. And just trying to understand, if you will, the activity in the JAK sort of naive versus JAK pre-exposed patients and the differences that you've noticed there.
In terms of that or...?
Yes, mCALR levels, like the expression levels in pre-exposed versus JAK-naive patients, just understanding the difference in activity.
Okay. No. We do not. No.
Okay. Matt Phipps, William Blair. I want to come back to the anemia benefit. Do you have the level of anemia benefit in those JAK-naive patients? I realize there's not a ton of patients there, but given they were probably anemic. And then a little bit surprised to not really see an anemia benefit in the JAK combo. So I guess when you're looking at the total patients, I guess, for the docs, maybe if you think about a patient coming off of a JAK, could this be a bit of a rebound as you're not pressuring JAK2 as RUX washes out, I guess. How do you kind of contrast the 2...?
So the first question, the benefit is consistent. I don't have the actual number for you, Matt, but the benefit is consistent with the JAK naive, maybe a little bit better. I think the mechanism is what tells you that's not the case because what's happening is, as Beth elegantly showed, we're reducing malignant erythroid progenitors. We are increasing wild-type erythroid progenitors. And then when you look at the curve over time, past 6, 7, 8 months, the hemoglobin keeps going up. That is not a JAK rebound effect.
Pablo, congratulations on the data. Imogen Mansfield from Cantor. I was wondering how you're thinking about the development path in the patients with an inadequate response to ruxolitinib compared to those who are relapsed/refractory. And is that a group where you could potentially get this therapy to patients sooner given that most patients don't have an adequate response to ruxolitinib?
That is a really good question. They're clearly not the same. The data we showed you, we separated ineligible ones because they're naive, but the others are all in one group. Quite honestly, we're going to have a conversation with FDA about some of these topics to see if we can bring 989 to market faster in some subset of patients. I think that is a great point. I think that it's particularly striking the benefit in anemia. I mean this is something that's never been seen in MF and really bringing this to patients as quickly as possible, I think it is really important. So we'll have that conversation. Whether there's a subset of patients with particularly poor prognosis, we can do this faster, we're certainly going to explore that. Thank you for that question.
I guess just one quick follow-up on the anemia. You've talked recently about proposing anemia and SVR35 as endpoints. Is that both for the first and second-line groups? And then why not include symptoms when they also look good?
Look, SVR is in. I think we all agree. SVR35 is in. We all know how we got here with symptoms. That started with Jakafi, and it was designed for what Jakafi does well, which is this rapid symptom improvement. I think we have in our hands a novel endpoint here at least in MF, which is not just stabilization, but improvement in anemia. It's objective, it's easy to measure and it's clinically relevant. I think it's time to have a conversation with FDA and see if we can adjust the endpoints, whether it's all 3, how we find the hierarchy of those, those are all regulatory conversations, quite honestly. But we intend to have a conversation with FDA about incorporating anemia improvement as an endpoint in these patients. I think it's important for patients. I think it's important for treating physicians. We good?
One more question.
Okay.
Maybe for Pablo, can you just speak to the appetite for potentially integrating a companion diagnostic into the development plan for typing mutations at baseline. That seems like an easy way to get around the dosing conundrum. And then how are you thinking about the ROI of a frontline ET trial that looks to displace hydroxyurea and maybe the physicians can comment on what they perceive to be the value proposition of 989 in frontline ET?
So in June of this year, we signed an agreement with QIAGEN for the companion diagnostics. So our work is ongoing with them. I think it's an important part of the story. I think if we develop 989 as we intend across mutations, the specificity of the mutation is less important, but we certainly have the tools if we need to go in that direction, if we happen to need to go in that direction. Before I ask our experts to talk about first-line ET, what we're seeing today is we're not discounting doing a first-line trial in ET. It's just the highest priority, second-line ET and then the 2 MF trials.
The reason, quite honestly, is, as you all know, first-line treatment for ET is largely hydroxyurea. It's not a great drug. So basically, the idea is giving a drug that is toxic to platelets to reduce the platelets, but it has certain drawbacks. We believe that if 989 was available in the second line, the pressure to switch patients from hydroxyurea to a truly disease-modifying drug that normalizes platelets and doesn't require dose adjustments like HYDREA does for white cell counts, we think it's going to be very intense. But we haven't discounted doing a first-line trial in ET yet. So I don't know if John, Claire or Beth want to comment on ET?
Yes, I mean the only thing I would add to that, as a clinician who cares for these patients, I think if this was -- if 989 was commercially available, I wouldn't hesitate to use it upfront in ET patients even without hydroxyurea exposure. So although one could give Hydrea and say, you're failing the drug and move on. most of my patients would much prefer to get a monoclonal antibody than the chemotherapeutic that holds that stigma. So I think it would be an easy -- obviously, with the subcu administration, an easy sell and an easy discussion with patients.
Okay. I think is that all the time we have. Thanks again. Thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to keeping you updated. Thank you.
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Incyte — Special Call - Incyte Corporation
Incyte — Special Call - Incyte Corporation
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: INCA033989 (kurz 989) zeigt in First‑in‑Human‑Daten bei CALR‑mutierten MPNs schnelle, simultane Effekte auf Milzvolumen, Symptome und Anämie sowie molekulare Signale (VAF‑Abfall, Rückgang mutanter Megakaryozyten) bei guter Verträglichkeit.
- Regulatorisch: Breakthrough‑Designation der FDA für essenzielle Thrombozythämie (ET), Typ‑1‑Mutationen; Phase‑III‑Planung läuft.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Wirkmechanismus: CALR‑mutant‑spezifischer Antikörper, der das mutante CALR‑TPO‑R‑Komplex destabilisiert und so onkogene Signale eliminiert; Ansatz zielt auf Stammzellen und megakaryozytäre Treiber der Fibrose.
- Klinische Signale: Monotherapie MF (n≈52): SVR25 42%/SVR35 33% bei Woche‑24; TSS50 (Symptome) bis 60% (best); Anämie‑Response 56%; Reduktion der VAF bei Teilpopulationen. Kombi mit ruxolitinib zeigt zusätzliche SVR/Symptom‑Stabilität.
- Sicherheit & Retention: Kein DLT, kein MTD festgestellt; häufige TRAE insgesamt, wenige schwerwiegende Ereignisse; hohe Verweildauer on‑study (~85–87%).
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Zeiten & Pläne: Phase‑III für 2L‑ET geplant „Mitte 2026“; zweite Studie in 2L‑MF H2‑2026; Daten aus laufender First‑line‑MF‑Randomisierung kommen 2026 und sollen First‑line‑Pivotal designen.
- Formulierung: Subkutan‑Programm (EnFuse‑Device) startet klinisch Anfang 2026; pivotal Studien beginnen voraussichtlich i.v. mit Bridging auf s.c.
- Regulatorik: Breakthrough für ET (Typ‑1) wurde heute bestätigt; Gespräche mit der FDA zur Endpunktwahl (SVR35, Anämie, Symptome) laufen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Dosisfragen: Diskussion über Dosisselektion (io‑Eskalation, höhere Dosen ggf. besser für Non‑Type‑1); finale Dosiswahl für ET fast abgeschlossen, MF noch abhängig von Naïve‑Kohorte.
- VAF‑Dynamik: Analysten fragten nach Tempo/Tiefe des VAF‑Rückgangs; Panel: VAF ist ein verzögerter, aber relevanter Marker – frühe Stammzell‑ und Knochenmarkssignale sprechen für krankheitsmodifizierende Wirkung.
- Positionierung: Debatte über Einsatz in JAK‑naïven vs. JAK‑ineligible/versagenden Patienten; Möglichkeit, bestimmte Subgruppen schneller zu registrieren wurde als Prüfpfad vorgeschlagen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: 989 liefert vielversprechende, multidimensionale Wirksamkeit mit disease‑modifying‑Signalen und guter Verträglichkeit; Breakthrough‑Status und konkrete Phase‑III‑Pläne beschleunigen den Entwicklungsweg. Risiken bleiben: frühe Phase, kleine Kohorten, Dosiswahl und regulatorische Endpunktfestlegung.
Incyte — Evercore 8th Annual Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Thanks for joining, everyone. We have Bill Meury and Pablo Cagnoni from Incyte. I'm super happy to have both of you guys up here.
Really big year to the company, big year ahead next year, too. Maybe you can just open it off with where things stand today, and then we'll get into some more detail in Q&A.
Yes. Thanks. It's great to be here. Our focus right now is, I think, pretty simple, which is to transition the company from Jakafi to a hem/onc I&I company. And essentially, what we're trying to do is build the glide path to high growth and durable revenue earnings and cash flow post 2029 post Jakafi.
There's a lot of substrate in the company. We have the R&D and commercial capabilities to execute. We kind of break the business down into 3 parts. There's a core business, our pipeline, of course, we have OpEx and then business development.
Core business is performing extremely well. That includes not only Jakafi, but the growth portfolio that exists post Jakafi: Opzelura, Niktimvo, Monjuvi and Zynyz, and maintaining solid fundamentals with that part of the business is going to be important as we transition.
And in terms of the pipeline. We have 7 priority projects that can create meaningful value long term. We're focused right now in 989 and 617F in hematology. We also have 3 solid tumor programs in pancreatic, colorectal and ovarian cancers, that's G12D, TGF-beta by PD-1 and CDK2. Those programs are really starting to declare themselves, and we'll be moving several of them into Phase III in 2026.
I'd say that Incyte has systematically and quietly created what could be a high potential oncology portfolio. And then in I&I, we have povorcitinib, an oral JAK, that we're developing for 3 indications: hidradenitis, prurigo nodularis and vitiligo, and we'll submit the NDA for povorcitinib in the first quarter of 2026.
And then I add into that -- to the 6, #7, which is Niktimvo, which is we launched for GVHD alongside Syndax, which is off to a very good start. And this -- I include that because we're developing Niktimvo in combination with Jakafi; and with steroids, those results will be available in '27-'28. But that pipeline has the potential to create a lot of value in the future. Not all these programs necessarily will work.
Not all of them have to work in order for us to build Incyte into the next decade. We're going to be smart about operating expenses, being financially disciplined on one hand, but not underfunding any critical initiatives that can compromise growth over the long term. Business development, like in any situation, is going to be supplemental. It can be a multiplier of our growth.
We'll do things that extend the core or strengthen the core and be really smart about how we use the balance sheet. And now it's time to convert Phase I studies, when we think about our pipeline, into Phase III studies and FDA approvals, and that's about execution.
Awesome. Let's start off on the pipeline side. I think we should start on calreticulin just because pretty close to a big ASH presentation, a lot of focus there, obviously. Not much to talk about on the safety front. The only thing we've gotten some questions on is the cytopenias and anemia rates. Maybe you could just kind of walk through, number one, what are the background rates in some of these trials? And then number two, mechanistically, could there be anything that would explain like a low rate of events?
Yes. So it's hard to talk about a background rate because it's a very broad -- very heterogeneous population. So what you're going to see -- just to go back to what you're going to see at ASH in 4 days, in essential thrombocythemia, which is a totally different population from MF, you're going to see an abstract of data we presented at the EHA earlier this year.
And in that, what you see is a rapid normalization of platelet counts. A lot of these patients at the beginning of the study are hydroxyurea or other cytoreductive therapy. So some of the cytopenias, which are rare, could be related to that over time. I think platelet counts stabilize in normal range. So I think that's really not an issue.
I think MF is a more complicated disease because the balance there that we're trying to correct is an imbalance between the wild-type clone and the mutated clone that is basically over time replacing the wild-type clone, and that's why these patients have cytopenias. There's also a shift away from making red cells for erythroid production, and that also causes the cytopenias that you see.
The correction of that, when you give 989, may not be immediate. We suppress the malignant clone fairly quickly. You'll see data on that at the translational presentation on Saturday. But sometimes the wild-type clone takes a little bit longer to recover or sometimes it's much smaller. Sometimes it's a lot of fibrosis in the marrow. As a result of that, cytopenias do get reported over time.
Now I think it's important to understand how the drug works. And CALR has 2 mechanisms by which is exclusively selective for mutated CALR cells -- malignant mutated CALR cells. One is it binds to a neoepitope, which is mutated calreticulin. That's obviously, as the word defines it, is not expressed in a broad set of tissues.
But importantly, what it does is it disrupts the interaction between the mutated CALR protein and the thrombopoietin receptor. So in order for a cell to be inhibited by the antibody, it has to express both. Malignant cells express both, the TPOR receptor and the mutated protein.
There are -- there's a group of normal cells that express mutated CALR, but don't have the thrombopoietin receptor. Those cells will not be touched by 989. So when you put all that together, it's hard to conceive that 989 will be toxic to normal hematopoiesis, that cytopenias may occur early in the treatment as it reduces the size of one clone and the wild-type cells emerge. That's possible, and we'll see that and each report is a single-arm study. So you're going to see a number of adverse events listed. But it's hard to conceive that this drug will be fundamentally toxic to benign hematopoietic cells.
And I guess one more data point on that is the anemia benefit, at least that's laid out in the update.
Yes. Thank you. Thank you for the assist. Yes, I should have said it. So there is a clear impact on anemia that tells you that the drug is unlikely to be toxic to red cells. And what we reported in the abstract is that 55% of the patients have improvement in anemia and 40% major -- sorry, 15% major and 40% minor.
And that is a hard endpoint that is either becoming transfusion independent or is an improvement in hemoglobin more than 1.5 grams in a sustained way. So this drug, I think it is the first time that this magnitude of anemia improvement has been seen in patients with MF and is as a result of the fact that 989 really shifts the production of blood cells away from malignant cells and into the benign normal erythroid cells and that improves hemoglobin.
And I think the anemia point is probably underappreciated by investors.
I agree. So much so that I forgot to say it. Yes.
Well, I would point out that -- and this was done at the Mayo Clinic, patients with MF and no anemia will live on average about 7 to 8 years, patients with MF and anemia only 2 to 3 years. And there's a real trade-off when you're using Jakafi or any other type of inhibitor like Jakafi, which is you can control the disease symptoms and shrink spleen, which cause anemia. If you avoid the anemia, you can't control the symptoms. And so as remarkable and as successful as Jakafi has been and made a big difference in patients' lives, it's a trade-off drug. And this is a fundamentally different approach.
Yes. I think that it's really important. So there's 3 things you want to do in MF: shrink the spleen, improve the symptoms and as a result of that, you want to improve the anemia. Jakafi does 2 of the 3, makes the third one worse. No, it doesn't make it better, makes it worse. 989 clearly does all 3. That's the data in the abstract. You'll see more detail on Sunday, but it clearly does all 3: shrinks the spleen, improves the symptoms, improves the anemia.
Awesome. And the anemia benefit, besides being commercially relevant, as you laid out, besides being proof of mechanism, it also kind of opens the door from a regulatory perspective in MF?
I think it does. Obviously, we need to see if the FDA agrees. For those of you maybe not super familiar, so spleen shrinkage measured that SVR35, 35% shrinkage of the size of the spleen by MRI, has been the endpoint -- part of the endpoint in MF for now 14, 15 years since Jakafi was first approved.
The second component of that endpoint has been improvement in symptoms measured in a couple of different ways or expressed in a couple of different ways, either as mean reduction or TSS50. I think it's very important to have a -- but there's never been a drug that improves anemia to this magnitude. And so I think it's a time to have a conversation with FDA and propose spleen and anemia as co-primary endpoints.
I think it's very relevant. I think anemia, as I defined it, is a hard endpoint in these patients. Now we'll see how that conversation goes. If we need to do symptom, we'll do symptoms. The symptom data you're going to see at the meeting expressed at TSS50, I think, looks strong. So we can go either way. I just think anemia is a more relevant measure of what the drug does.
Yes, that makes sense. And for what you just laid out on the regulatory side, is that second line in addition to frontline for MF?
So I think in MF, the development will proceed in both in a staggered fashion. Second line is more straightforward. We have a lot of data again in the abstract and the presentation in patients that are either intolerant or suboptimal responders to Jakafi. That's where most of the data in the abstract are, and it shows once again, spleen reduction, symptom improvement and anemia improvement.
That's a pretty straightforward Phase III trial to design. We are in the process of finalizing the dose selection. And at some point in 2026, we'll roll that out. First line, we need a little bit more data. So what we have right now in the cohort of patients that received single-agent 989, there's a small group that would consider Jakafi ineligible.
So not an all-comer naive population, but a subset that are called Jakafi ineligible. We'll show data in those patients at the conference on Sunday. And that is sort of the beginning of understanding what 989 does in true first-line MF, selected group with probably worse outcomes, but still first line.
We're in the process of enrolling patients, truly naive patients to 989 or 989 Jakafi. That's ongoing. We'll have the data in 2026. And that data will serve as a foundation for the Phase III trial in first line as well. So this is all moving in a staggered fashion, second-line ET, second-line MF, first-line MF.
Should we be talking about transfusion burden at all within the anemia conversation?
It's a good question. If we hadn't seen this increase in hemoglobin, perhaps it would be more relevant. But I think the increase in hemoglobin alone might be important enough. We'll have that data.
Yes. I guess like why -- if you're seeing that level of hemoglobin increase, like why wouldn't you be helping out the transfusion burden...
Well, none of the patients are inter-transfusion dependent. That's all.
Sure. That makes sense. All right. What about on the co-mutation side, maybe this is a topic for ASH, but yes, one question for a long time has been and MF cells can accumulate more mutations, can it be later stage, get more beat up, if you will? What's our level of confidence calreticulin is still the driver mutation there?
So what do we know about MF in general, aside for 989 is that it's a monoclonal disorder. So when there is a mutation present, that mutation drives the disease. There could be coexistent mutations, but those are, what's usually called, passenger mutations. They don't drive the disease.
And we'll have -- without getting ahead of ourselves, but on Saturday, you'll see a deep translational analysis of the data that shows in a small datasets that when patients have a coexisting mutation, hitting CALR still leads to the reduction in the size of the clone, which tells you that CALR is indeed the driver. And it's the same with V617F, and it's the same with BCR-A1 CML. These are monoclonal disorders.
Perfect. Just one on the ET side. What is the status of regulatory discussions? And as we're talking about the DCHR endpoint, there's different platelet cutoffs, what's your expectation there?
Regulatory interactions have started. They have not been concluded. Base case is that we'll have to use 450,000 platelets. I think there's an argument to be made that a little bit of room there is helpful for patients, by the way, because there's no evidence that patients with 500,000, 550,000 platelets have any higher risk of thrombosis, but it will be a conversation with FDA.
Awesome. All right. Let's switch gears. Let's go to the JAK2 V617F, stay on the hem/onc side. Recently option Prelude's asset. What does that tell us about your ongoing study, your confidence in your lead asset?
Not much. So let's take a step back. I remain convinced that the thesis of inhibiting V617F, the pseudokinase in the mutated -- in patients with V617F mutation, if you hit it, it's going to lead to positive clinical outcomes in patients with MPNs. And let's remember, V617F is the remaining of MPN patients.
MF, if you combine V617F and CALR across ETMF and polycythemia vera, you basically cover more than 90% of MPN. So that's an important point, and they're mutually exclusive. We introduced the program in the clinic. What we learned over the past 12 months is that due to the poor solubility of the molecule, despite a better formulation that we introduced, the exposures were not hitting the IC35 that we thought and predicted you have to hit to get a positive clinical outcome.
We are replacing that formulation for a solid dispersion formulation that will be introduced imminently. And we expect that, that will solve the exposure problem. So over the next 6 to 9 months, we'll generate data that will help answer the question, a, whether we have the right molecule; b, the right exposure. And if those 2 things are correct, then we should have some degree of clinical impact.
Now in parallel with that, we have internal backup programs because this is a critical area for us to win. So we are never betting all on one molecule. Those backup programs are going to be advanced now, just in case. And in parallel with that, we're constantly scanning the landscape for ideas that conceivably could be better than our ideas in this space.
Of those ideas that we saw, Prelude had found a different chemical space for V617F inhibitor. We thought it was important to have an option to acquire that. What we did is we put in place a collaboration. They're going to put the molecule in the clinic. Once the data are out, we get to take a look at the data and then decide whether we exercise the option.
Perfect. And what got you excited about the Prelude compound? Like is it more about a bioavailability med chem, different binding pocket? Like what are the properties?
It's a different binding pocket. And honestly, the preclinical data was really of interest to us. I mean this -- to get further insights into the molecule, you need to discuss it with the Prelude team. I mean it's their molecule at this point, we just have an option deal.
Awesome. All right. I guess just thinking about the target product profile for V617F, without going into too many details, but like do you think this needs to match Jakafi on efficacy? Or given the safety advantage, can it be a little lower? What's the way to think about that?
That's a really good question. Look, it has -- the idea here with a completely different tool is to have the selectivity you see with 989, right? Now antibodies, obviously, when [indiscernible] with an antibody is rare that you're going to get with a small molecule. So it's never going to be the same.
But I think that if that window, that therapeutic window that we saw in preclinical models pans out, you should have some of the same impact on the disease that you see with 989 without the toxicity of Jakafi. Let's remember, Jakafi has no selectivity between wild-type and malignant clones. It works beautifully as we discussed on spleen and symptoms, but it has no selectivity.
So if you expand that selectivity window, you should get a lot of the benefits of Jakafi, at least in terms of long-term spleen reduction, symptom improvement and perhaps some of the anemia impact that you see. Whether it's as good as 989, that's a different question that I can't answer today. But the selectivity window, it's going to be -- have to be broader than -- wider than Jakafi.
Great. For tafa? I mean, there's a first-line DLBCL study, Phase III, that's ongoing. I feel like it's fairly under the radar for investors. It's been a little slow on the event rate accrual side, right? Is there anything else that's going on there? Where do you stand?
There's nothing going on. We just need the events. This is just for everyone, it's a first-line DLBCL study adding Monjuvi, Revlimid to our CHOP basically. So it is a curative intent. We think it will dramatically expand the eligible population for tafasitamab. And the study has been running. And Gavin, the only thing remaining is to reach the number of progression events, PFS events in order to lock the database and unblind the study. There's nothing else going on.
And how much will that expand the opportunity for tafa?
Well, the total addressable market frontline DLBCL is probably 2x, 2.5x what it is for relapsed/refractory. And so it would be a pretty significant value driver for Incyte if that study broke our way.
Yes. Makes sense. All right. I'm going to actually jump over some other pipeline assets, if we don't have time for today, which we'll talk about next year. But I'm going to go commercial, but stay on hem/onc and do Jakafi XR. Mid-'26 approval. How much are you expecting in terms of switch from the twice a day?
Yes. I think when you look at analogs, the range is pretty wide. It could be as low as 10%, as high as 50%. We like to work with a range of 15% to 20%. If you pick a midpoint, call it, roughly 20%, it provides an opportunity to preserve almost $0.75 billion of Jakafi as we go through the '29 transition.
The key to these conversions is, obviously, you have a sales organization that's wired into the hematology community and then you have to secure formulary coverage and work with specialty pharmacies. And we'll set a price that makes sense for the health care system and makes sense for Incyte. And I think that's a reliable way to think about it.
All right. That makes sense. Anything you wanted to flag quickly on Niktimvo in the last 30 seconds-or-so?
Just that it continues to do really, really well. We'll have a very good fourth quarter. Drugs annualizing at north of $200 million. I think it's differentiated by mechanism, CSFR targets macrophages and fibrosis, broad organ control. And importantly, we see it retains activity after Jakafi use. And if we can get the combination studies done and have positive results, it will be an important product to Incyte.
Awesome. I think we'll actually wrap it up right there, right on time, but really appreciate you joining and see you at ASH next weekend. See you then. Thank you. Thank you, everyone.
Thanks.
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Incyte — Evercore 8th Annual Healthcare Conference
Incyte — Evercore 8th Annual Healthcare Conference
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Incyte stellt strategisch von einem Jakafi-zentrierten Unternehmen auf ein breit aufgestelltes Häm/Onk- und Immun‑&‑Inflammation( I&I)-Unternehmen um. Ziel: mehrere Phase‑III‑Programme, selektive Therapien (z.B. 989) und NDAs (povorcitinib) als Treiber für Wachstum nach 2029.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Pipeline‑Fokus: Sieben prioritäre Programme; Schwerpunkte sind anti‑CALR‑Antikörper 989 (Myelofibrose/essentielle Thrombozythämie), JAK2 V617F‑Inhibitor (Formulierungs-Update) und drei solide Tumorprogramme (G12D, TGF‑β+PD‑1, CDK2) mit Phase‑III‑Plänen 2026.
- I&I & Kommerz: Zulassungsantrag (NDA) für povorcitinib geplant im 1. Quartal 2026; Niktimvo startet gut (Jahreslaufleistung >$200 Mio.).
- Finanzen & BD: Diszipliniertes Operating Expense‑Management; Business Development als ergänzender Wachstumshebel; Jakafi XR‑Launch Mitte 2026 mit erwarteter Switch‑Rate 15–20% (schützt ~$0,75 Mrd. Umsatz bis 2029).
🆕 Neue Informationen
- NDA‑Timing: Povorcitinib‑NDA geplant für Q1 2026 (Hidradenitis, Prurigo nodularis, Vitiligo).
- 989‑Daten: Anämie‑Verbesserung berichtet: 55% der Patienten mit Hb‑Verbesserung, 15% major, 40% minor; Company will Milestone‑orientierte Phase‑III‑Starts 2026 und FDA‑Dialog über Spleen+Anämie als Kofokus.
- JAK2‑Programm: Formulierungsproblem adressiert; solid dispersion erwartet in 6–9 Monaten; Option/Kooperation mit Prelude für alternatives Molekül.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Sicherheit/Anämie: Kernfrage war, ob 989 Zytopenien verursacht; Management erklärt Mechanismus selektiver Wirkung auf mutierte CALR‑Zellen und sieht Anämieverbesserung als Beleg gegen generelle Toxizität.
- Regulatorik & Endpunkte: Diskussion über mögliche Co‑Primary‑Endpoints (SVR35 für Milz und Anämie) und gestaffelte Entwicklung in Second‑line und First‑line MF; Second‑line als klarerer Weg.
- Risiken JAK2 & Kommerz: Fragen zur Bioverfügbarkeit des V617F‑Inhibitors, Backup‑Programme und zur erwarteten Uptake‑Bandbreite von Jakafi XR sowie zu Event‑Rekrutierung im tafasitamab Phase‑III‑DLBCL‑Programm.
📌 Bottom Line
- Fazit für Aktionäre: Das Management präsentiert einen klaren Übergangsplan: Near‑term‑Katalysatoren (povorcitinib‑NDA, Niktimvo‑Momentum, Jakafi XR) plus mehrere klinische High‑impact‑Programme (989, JAK2, solide Tumoren). Technische Risiken (JAK2‑Formulierung, spätere Phase‑III‑Lesbarkeit) sind adressiert, BD‑Optionen reduzieren Single‑point‑Risk. Positiver Newsflow bis 2026/2027 möglich, aber klinische Validierung bleibt entscheidend.
Incyte — Citi Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Okay. All right. Let's get started with the next session of Citi's Global Healthcare Conference. It's my great pleasure to have with me the senior management of Incyte Corporation. We have the CEO, Bill Meury; and Pablo Cagnoni, the President of Research and Development. So gentlemen, thank you both so much for taking the time to chat.
It's nice to be here. Thank you.
Thank you. All right. Well, let's just kind of kick off the conversation, if we could, with Jakafi and just talk about the overall strategy in terms of Jakafi and what you're doing to drive growth in the company as Jakafi moves beyond the LOE, which obviously is widely expected and you're, of course, very well prepared to address.
Listen, our focus right now is, as you said, transitioning the business from Jakafi to a hem/onc I&I company and building a steeper growth curve post '29 with durable revenue, earnings and cash flow. I think there's 3 parts to the solution. The first one is our base business, our core business, excluding Jakafi, has the potential to be as big as Jakafi in 2029. So that's sort of part one.
Part two is we have 7 late-stage pipeline projects that will layer on top of that core business. And just to break it down a little bit, in hematology, which is a central identity of the company, we're working on several targeted treatments for MPNs. 989, of course, we'll be presenting data in about a week, and we'll be moving that into Phase III in 2026.
In solid tumor oncology, I think we've systematically and quietly built what could be a high-impact oncology program with G12D in pancreatic cancer, TGF-beta by PD-1 in colorectal cancer and CDK2 in ovarian cancer. And those programs are starting to declare themselves right now. And then I&I, we have an oral JAK inhibitor that's being developed for 3 different indications: hidradenitis, prurigo nodularis and vitiligo. And we don't have to be perfect with this pipeline. But if several of these projects are successful, it will contribute substantially to that base business I talked about.
And then the third part of the solution is business development, which we would use to extend our core in 1 of the 3 verticals: hematology, oncology and immunology. And as I mentioned, we think about a profile where the company has the potential once we get past Jakafi to grow at, let's say, a 15% to 20% 5-year CAGR. We have multiple products, 3 to 5 products with revenue potential of $1 billion or more. And importantly, minimal LOE exposure at that point because the products that we're advancing through development right now have strong patents and long periods of exclusivity and then ultimately run a business with a healthy operating margin, call it, north of 30%. That's the profile we're building. I think there's a lot of substrate in the company. We don't have to be perfect, but we do have to execute, and that's where our focus is right now.
Okay. That's a very good setup. I guess maybe just a few questions on Jakafi, just to level set and then we can move on to the list of very interesting topics you outlined. So can you talk about the once-daily formulation and how that may help you and where that stands in terms of readiness for launch?
Yes. We expect to launch that in the middle of 2026. And you can look at analogs for these XR conversions. There's a long list of them, as you probably know. And the range can be pretty wide. It can be as low as 10% and as high as 50% or more. We estimate we'll convert 15% to 30% of IR patients to XR, a more convenient form. Let's take the midpoint of roughly 20%. So XR has the potential to preserve almost $0.75 billion in Jakafi sales as we go through the 2029 period.
Two things drive conversion. Well, 3 things. First, you have to have a good product, and it is a once-a-day version. Second, you need a sales organization, which, as you know, ours is wired into the community, the medical community. And then you have to achieve formulary coverage at a price that makes sense for the PBMs and health plans and makes sense for Incyte. And I believe we can do that. And that will be an important contributor to the sort of base business as we transition away from Jakafi.
And beyond the convenience of the once-a-day, is there more to the pitch? Or is that the essence of it? Or is there some -- are there additional benefits like, for example, less side effects or other aspects that are helpful?
Yes. The approval will be based on bioequivalence data. So it's really for a symptomatic condition like MF or PV or GVHD, compliance is important. And so this is simply moving from twice a day to once a day.
Okay. All right. Well, you mentioned 989 in your earlier comments. So maybe we could start there. Tell us a little bit about this target, this mutant CALR antibody. What is the significance of that? And you mentioned the data is coming this weekend. I'm not sure the exact time, but I'll be at ASH, so I'll check it out. So just tell us a little bit more about how you see that opportunity.
Okay. Pablo, do you want to take that?
Sure. So just to remind everyone, 989 is our mutant CALR antibody. We developed that internally based on our understanding of the biology of MPN, which I think is one of the many strengths of Incyte of the discovery organization. The molecule entered the clinic about 2 years ago and at EHA in June of this year, we presented data for the first time in patients with essential thrombocythemia. About 25% of the patients with ET are mutant CAR positive. MF is about 35% of the patient.
So the data showed very clearly at EHA, a rapid normalization of platelet counts in patients with ET, which is the key goal of therapy in this disease is to normalize the platelet count. That leads to improvement in terms of rate of thrombosis and/or bleeding that are related to some of the interventions that are used in patients with ET. The drug was also well tolerated. At the time of the EHA presentation, only one of the patients had discontinued due to an adverse event. So we're very happy with the initial efficacy and safety that we showed.
That data set is going to be expanded at ASH next weekend. 3 abstracts that are going to be presented in more detail have been made public. In ET, an update on incrementally more patients, longer follow-up, showing consistently that the results that we presented at EHA are evolving well. In other words, normalization of platelets, well tolerated, minimal side effects, minimal discontinuations due to adverse events.
We're also going to present for the first time data in myelofibrosis, which obviously is a critical component of the strategy. The abstract shows very clearly that 989 in patients that are either ineligible, intolerant or did not respond to Jakafi produces, I would say, impressive effects in SVR35, shrink in the spleen, symptom improvement and very importantly as well, anemia improvement in more than half the patients. Anemia responses that it's either an increase of hemoglobin more than 1.5 grams or conversion to transfusion independency.
We also have data in the abstract that will be updated at the meeting, combining 989 with Jakafi in patients that are suboptimal responders after at least 12 weeks of therapy with Jakafi. And again, in that group of patients, there's improvement in terms of spleen response, there's improvement in symptoms as well.
Now a very important part of the story is in the third abstract, which is translational data from both studies that show convincingly that 989 not only leads to clinical benefit, as I described, but it has a disease-modifying effect. What does that mean? It means that in the compartments where these diseases are, which is the bone marrow and the peripheral blood, there's a reduction in the mutant CALR-positive megakaryocytes in the marrow, early progenitors in the blood as a result of which the VAF, the variable allele frequency goes down in these patients. That is telling us that 989 is fundamentally reducing the burden of the disease. In turn, when that happens, the normal clone, the wild-type clone is increasing, which is why the anemia is getting better and these patients are overall improving in a number of ways.
All this picture will be made more clear next weekend. We'll have these 3 presentations I described, and we'll also have an investor event where we'll go over this into more detail. I believe that is on Sunday afternoon.
And I would just add, if we can replicate the data that we produced in Phase I and Phase III, 989 has the potential to replace Jakafi, both in ET and MF in total.
Yes, that was sort of getting to my next question. So yes, so you haven't specified what -- you mentioned both the post-Jakafi setting, you mentioned the combo. You didn't specifically mention frontline in what you said, but I think that's got to be in the strategy somewhere?
So yes, of course, it's ongoing already. We are treating naive patients. We're randomizing to 989 versus 989-Jakafi. The data will not be presented next weekend, that data will be presented at some point in 2026. It's an important part of the strategy. You will see, however, in the single-agent cohort that we're going to present at ASH, there's a group of patients that were put in 989 because they are ineligible for Jakafi. Those are Jakafi naive patients. And you will -- it's a small group, small sample size, but you will see that data at ASH next weekend. And it will give you an idea of what the drug can do in first-line, even though it's arguably a first-line population with a little bit worse prognosis because it's ineligible for Jakafi, which probably means they are anemic or thrombocytopenic. But you'll see that data.
And the -- but then getting to sort of the bigger strategy as far as where you would initiate a Phase III, would it be sort of a multipronged strategy where you go into some more -- one or more of these settings? Or of course, you've got the IRA considerations in terms of staggering. So talk a little bit to the extent you can base it.
Yes. No, it's a very important point. Let me take a step back for a second. Our goal -- stated goal is by the end of the decade, early next decade is to have a targeted therapy for every patient with MPN, ET, MF and PV. So this is the first step. And you're right, we're not going to sequence initiation of trials. They're going to be a little bit staggered because the data in ET became clear faster. So that's moving a little bit faster. But we are -- 2026 is a year where we're going to implement one or more Phase III trials in ET and MF with 989.
The first one will be second-line ET. Again, we have all the data we need to make that decision. Regulatory interactions have started. That will be implemented as early as possible in '26. Over the course of the year, we'll move forward with second-line MF and first-line MF as well. This precise timing depends a little bit on having the necessary data to have the conversation with FDA about the dose selection and about the safety. Second line at ET and second-line MF are pretty straightforward. It's single-agent 989 control arm is well known in ET best available therapy. In MF is best available therapy, a range of medicines that have been approved, none of which work very well.
First-line MF, there's 2 different options. It's either single-agent 989 or 989 plus Jakafi or a 3-arm study with both with the Jakafi control arm. As Bill pointed out, when you look at the data in the abstract in a population that is mostly Jakafi exposed, the data already looks very promising as a single agent, stacking very well with Jakafi and first-line. So we need more data, but that's basically going to be the evolution in 2026 on how these trials are going to be rolled out.
And how are you competitively positioned with this particular target? Are you unique in having this construct? Or are there others that are doing things with slight variations?
As far as we know, there's a recent announcement. There's one competitor is not in the clinic yet. So it's, I would say, 3 to 4 years behind. So we have a strong lead. This is a space we know well. We need to execute. We need to execute flawlessly and rapidly. And if we do that, we're going to be in good shape. The drug works. The data presented today, I would argue is compelling. We just need to roll out those Phase III trials as fast as we can.
Okay. All right. So we look forward to seeing that, and we'll check out the detail you mentioned on the Jakafi ineligible. So quickly on ruxolitinib, the Opzelura, the cream, if we could ask a few questions there. Just talk about the growth of the product and how you see it evolving? Where do you see the most uptake?
As a base case, on a global basis, Opzelura finished the year at roughly $650 million in sales. Over the next 5 years, it has the potential to grow at a 10% CAGR. So 2x this business between now and 2030. There will be 3 sources of growth. First is just increased penetration of the U.S. market. There is, as you probably know, a migration from topical corticosteroids to nonsteroidal topicals. And Opzelura having one of the larger prescriber bases and extensive formulary coverage is a big beneficiary of this market growth, which I think will finish the year at roughly 20%. That's number one.
Number two, we could get potential indications for HS and PN for Opzelura. That's number two. Number three is international growth. We expect to get an approval for Opzelura in moderate AD in Europe in the middle to the end of 2026. And if you take a look at the results from the moderate AD study was TRuE-AD with Opzelura, they were pretty remarkable. We had 70% of people achieve an EASI75 60% of people had itch relief at 8 weeks. I think 30% of people had each week -- itch relief in 2 days and 15% had itch relief in 15 minutes. And so it's arguably the most effective topical on the market, both in the United States and internationally. And that European business will be an important driver of the overall growth of this product between now and 2030.
And that submission is based on what set of data? Is it the U.S. data that you -- or did you do additional studies to support the Europe work?
So the recent data that Bill mentioned was designed specifically to address the European market. There's a population of moderate atopic dermatitis patients that are considered eligible for Dupi in Europe. And we run the study specifically in that population that we hope will lead, obviously, not just to approval, but to favorable reimbursement in Europe.
Okay. So you would expect the typical pathway, the CHMP opinion in next -- sometime in the first half of next year or approximately?
Middle of next year.
Okay. Okay. And do you speak about the split in terms of the revenues on those different indications on vitiligo versus AD?
Yes. Roughly right now, it's 60-40. So as I mentioned, in AD is the larger market, growth being driven by the migration of steroids like we talked about. And then on the vitiligo side, the key with vitiligo is medicalizing the condition. And we've done an excellent job at capturing those patients with vitiligo who are seeking treatment.
But the key to success in that market, and this usually takes more time is to increase the diagnosis and treatment rate, which is an ongoing process. We have a fairly sizable consumer campaign in place. I'd expect that split to stay 60-40 with both indications, both in the United States and internationally contributing meaningfully to the sort of double-digit growth rate that we talked about.
And I assume that kind of growth you talked about the 2x-ing by 2030, 10% CAGR, does that factor in some of the competitors? Because there are some other products that are novel mechanisms that are topicals, I believe, like the PDE4 inhibitors, for example, do they -- you factored that in clearly?
You do. It's not a winner-take-all market. If you were dealing, for example, in a category where the growth rate on the year-over-year basis was neutral or a category that was so well established that was declining, it may be a market share of battle. But there are plenty of patients out there that can benefit from Opzelura as well as these other topicals. I would say this, it's really tough to beat the data that we've produced on Opzelura, but don't see it as a fight to the death and our projections take into consideration that there are alternatives.
I think one of the real strengths of Opzelura is we have almost 20,000 prescribers in the United States. That is a prescriber base that isn't matched by any other topical. We also have extensive formulary coverage, both on the commercial side as well as on the Medicaid side. And I wouldn't say we have a moat around this business, but the fundamentals of Opzelura are in a very strong position. We just need to execute, and we shouldn't be impacted negatively by competition. They'll have plenty of opportunity, too.
Well, you're doing a very good job on the DTC because I see the ads on CNN. My phone probably is plugged into the TV. So it knows I'm a biotech analyst.
Just make sure you go to the pharmacy and get some and pay full price.
So then moving on to other topics. So to povo, there, you're preparing to submit very soon to the EU, yes. So can you just talk about the steps there? And then what the pitch is as far as a strong statement on efficacy for HS.
Great. Do you want to talk about the EU submission?
Sure. So the EU submission is in. So...
It's in. Okay.
It's in. So that's done. Now we're working on the submission for the U.S. If you remember, we said earlier this year, we needed 52-week safety data was requested by FDA for the initial submission for povo. So basically, it was about waiting for that. The submission will go in early 2026. We're going to request priority review. We may or may not get it depending on that. The approval will be the late '26 or early '27 followed by the launch. So that's HS.
As you know, we think we have a very strong data set here. It's going to be the oral convenience of povo. And aside from what we think are very competitive results on HiSCR 50, 75, 90 and 100, what povo does very well is a very rapid pain improvement and very important reduction in number of flares.
And when you look at the data from broad databases, patients with HS, the #1 complaint is pain. About 80%, 85% of patients have some degree of pain. And Povo basically shows that when you -- at long-term follow-up, 60% or 70% of the patients have either no pain or minimal pain on povo. So we think that's going to be a really important differentiator from our competitors. So the goal now is to get the U.S. submission in as soon as possible. And then obviously, the team will prepare for the launch.
Okay. And if you could maybe just talk a little bit about the market and the untapped opportunity in HS. How big of a product do you think povo could be if everything goes according to your projections?
Yes. Look, I think there's a feasible path to north of $1 billion across HS, PN and vitiligo. I believe HS has the potential to be the largest. There's a lot of estimates out there on the size of the HS market. Based on epidemiology data, we see that number as a base case at about $5 billion, people who are eligible or would be eligible for an advanced therapy, whether it's an oral systemic or a biologic. And the question is what percentage of these patients can we capture as part of the introduction of povorcitinib.
It's largely a category that's being managed by antibiotics on one side and by IL-17 and TNF-alphas on the other side. Our strategy is to capture patients at 2 critical inflection points. after antibiotic, but before a biologic or post-biologic. And that's what our data set is in, in both pre- and post-biologic patients. And as Pablo said, the numbers across the board on skin clearance and pain are very good. We had a dt100, draining tunnels 100 clearance of 50%. And so this is a very, very good product.
Layering in prurigo nodularis, that's an itch disease. You could argue it was made for JAK inhibitors. And if you look at our Phase II results in terms of itch relief, roughly 50% of patients achieved it on the NRS4, which is really impressive. And again, a rapid onset of effect. You start to see separation between povo and the control group in about 10 days. And so that will be an important contributor to sales. The PN market is a little smaller than the HS market, but there's still probably a $2.5 billion, $3 billion category for advanced systemic therapies.
And then on vitiligo, the key there is it opens up roughly half the market patients who have a BSA of greater than 5%, where a topical like Opzelura is just a little less practical. And this will be about getting the data into the market, promotion, securing formulary coverage, basic launch execution, and we start probably in the first quarter of 2027, assuming a standard review with povo for HS.
And -- but you'll have 2 important data sets, if I'm not mistaken, next year, Phase III data sets for vitiligo and for PN.
That's right. We'll have the vitiligo data set sometime in the second quarter and the PN data set sometime in the fourth quarter.
And how do you see those? I mean the expectation is based on the Phase II data, based on the strength of the data in HS that those are in good position to work? Or what do you need to see on those to be very confident in a strong profile?
Yes. I think if you -- look, we know what HS looks like, obviously. If you take a look at PN, if we can replicate or get close to our Phase II results, we have a real product there. And as far as I can tell right now, we'll be the only oral JAK approved for PN. Obviously, Galderma has done a really nice job with it Nemluvio. It's a category of patients where there's significant unmet need. And so that's the target.
And then as it relates to vitiligo, we have a lot of experience in that category. I think our data are going to have to match what RINVOQ has and Pfizer has a product, too. But right now, all 3 programs, I mean, there's always sort of -- you got to get these Phase III studies done, but it's a somewhat derisked program in terms of what we expect from the product.
Okay. And just sorry for a basic question since we don't formally cover you at the moment. Povo, so that's not something that you could use as a Jakafi replacement in those settings. Is that correct? It wouldn't -- there's a reason for that.
It's a selective JAK1 inhibitor.
Okay. So it just wouldn't work.
Jakafi is a JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor. It's interesting because the JAK2 effect obviously is more relevant to MPNs. The JAK1 effect provides a broad anti-inflammatory effect, which is one of the reasons why Jakafi improved symptoms so quickly. But povo was designed specifically as a JAK1 highly selective, highly potent inhibitor, arguably the most selective JAK1 inhibitor out there. And on top of that, and we've shown this recently, has very high concentrations in the skin. The PK of povo in the skin basically replicates the curve that you see in plasma, which is one of the reasons why we think it works uniquely well in some of the diseases we're discussing.
Okay. I'm glad I asked for that clarification. All right. And now for one that we are very familiar with since we cover Syndax, Niktimvo, axatilimab. So that launch has done exceptionally well. So maybe just tell us a little bit more about how you're investing in that asset and where you see the growth. Obviously, there were royalty partners that were very interested in that asset and have made a big bet, just on the third-line opportunity, let alone the other work you're doing in the earlier lines. So maybe you could kind of walk us through your strategy overall for the program.
Yes. The launch has gone extremely well, as you said, partnership with Syndax has been excellent. We'll finish the fourth quarter annualizing north of $200 million in sales. So that is a very, very good start. I think Niktimvo is differentiated in several ways. First, mechanistically, it targets CSF1R Second, it covers macrophages and fibrosis. Third, very high response rate. And I think fourth and importantly, what we hear more from BMT centers every day is that it retains its activity after Jakafi or in a heavily pretreated population.
One of the most encouraging findings since the launch is that 70%, 80% of people who were started on Niktimvo in February 2025, the launch month, are still on therapy. And so that persistency is probably the most concrete evidence of how the real-world experience is standing up to the clinical trial experience where the results were very, very strong. If you look at the adoption curve over the past 12 months, it looks like it's right on top of Sanofi's Rezurock. It is a new launch. It can be unpredictable. It's still early, but we like everything that we see right now. I think the broad organ control that it provides, liver, lung and skin is also a differentiator. And so we're really leaning into this. And it's an important product for Syndax, of course, and it's a very important product for Incyte.
Okay. And do you want to talk a bit about the studies that you're pursuing in the earlier lines. There's a few, the steroids and then with Jakafi?
Sure. So we're doing 2 -- the goal here is to move Niktimvo to first-line treatment of patients with chronic graft-versus-host disease. That's where the bigger gains for patients are going to be and obviously, it's a much bigger market. We're going to present at ASH next weekend data from the combination -- safety data from the combination of Niktimvo with Jakafi. That's a very important first step to show that these 2 drugs can be given together. That was the first step that we set out to do, and that will be followed by randomization to move this to first line.
And when you talk to transplant physicians, they tell you one of the key things they want is a steroid-free regimen for these patients. You have to remember, chronic GVHD is usually in the setting of prior acute GVHD, which is also managed in part with steroids. So these patients are on steroids for long periods of time and getting them off steroids is a key goal. So we have high hopes for this regimen, combination of the 2.
There's mechanistic reasons why they should work well together. One is more T cell directed. The other one is obviously CSF1R antibody. So that's an important part of the story. The other is a more traditional approach, which is to take the most commonly used drug in first line, which is steroids and combining with Niktimvo. That Phase III study is also ongoing. Those 2 will potentially be the way we expand the label into first-line use.
Okay. And have you provided any time lines on readouts for those? Or those are just booting up now?
We -- the steroid one is ahead. We haven't provided a detailed time lines. I mean these studies take chronic graft-versus-host disease is not a super common disease. So enrollment sometimes takes a little bit longer than what would like. I would say towards the end of the decade, earlier, probably '28, we'll have some of the data that we need to expand the label potentially. We need more clarity as the studies progress.
The key here is we have 2 shots on goal because if one of those studies hits, you roughly 2x the addressable population. And so these are really important -- important for the medical community, too, that are looking to, as Pablo said, migrate from steroids.
And what are the data points or proof points that would support working in those frontline either combination? How much evidence is there? I mean it's a good design that the study should be run. I'm just curious what -- where are you getting the confidence that it's likely to work? Or is one more likely to work than the other?
It's a really good question. Look, I think it comes down to mechanism. In general, chronic graft-versus-host disease is a very complex disease biologically. We know that if you remove all the T cells from a graft, you reduce dramatically eliminate graft-versus-host disease. That's known. Obviously, the problem in that case is that you have increased risk of relapse. So the T cell component of the story matters.
Now what the data from the AGAVE trial has conclusively shown is that it's an important component of the chronic manifestations, particularly fibrosis in some of the organs that is driven by macrophages. And that is why Niktimvo is so important. So in a way, by combining the 2, and this is the best expansion I can give you today since we have no clinical data, is we calm down the T cell response that continues to damage tissues. But at the same time, with Niktimvo, we allow those tissues to heal by impacting CSF1R. I think when you put those 2 components of the story together, mechanistically makes a lot of sense that the drugs will improve the treatment together.
Okay. And then you mentioned briefly Rezurock. I mean that's a different mechanism, right? So like the read-through there, I assume the answer is not much read-through, but anything else you want to say?
Well, I think I know what you're referring to. I think mechanistically, it makes a lot less sense to combine Rezurock with steroids or with Jakafi, right? Because you're sort of going after the same biology. It's not identical, but you're going to the same group of cells. I think the combination with Niktimvo makes a lot more mechanistic sense, to be honest with you. So I don't think there's a read-through from that.
Yes. Okay. Ex-U.S., is there a plan? Or what is the thinking there?
Ex-U.S., we've been pretty open in the past that it was going to be really hard to get approval and reimbursement in Europe on the basis of AGAVE. So the approval in Europe will have to depend on one of the first-line studies.
Okay. And then just like overall for this franchise, the profitability, can you talk about the profit margins? And you mentioned the BMT centers. I'm also just curious, anecdotally, what are you hearing in the field as far as the experience given what you said before about the percent that are staying on it for as long as they are?
Yes. The report from BMT centers is very, very positive. Even though it's a weekly -- excuse me, twice a week -- twice a month IV, it fits for most patients in their follow-up routines, labs, clinical visits, other supportive care that they may be getting. Tolerability is excellent. I think that sort of speaks for itself in the persistency rate. For those that aren't going to the centers, we have home care solutions, infusion center solutions. So everything we're hearing so far is very, very good.
Okay. You mentioned at the top of the hour, the solid tumor work. So I want to make sure we have time to talk about both of those programs. So let's start with KRAS. You just had some Phase I data, I think, at ESMO. So tell us more about the KRAS. Is it -- what's the exact mechanism? It's -- this is a G12D, but is it -- the hitting the on state, hitting the off state, both. We'll talk about those details and how -- and there are quite a few of these in development. And as you know, so how does yours fit in?
No, it's -- so yes, it's both on off. But I just want to make sure we don't forget about 1/3 of my solid tumor oncology children. We have a CDK2 inhibitor right now initiating pivotal trials in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, and we intend to move it to maintenance after chemotherapy Avastin -- in combination with Avastin, so that's moving forward. That's on the basis of data that we presented last year at ESMO and we've updated recently showing the competitive response rate in patients that are Cyclin E1 overexpressers with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer. So that's ongoing.
So you referred to the 2 programs we provided an update at ESMO. We have a KRAS G12D inhibitor. We showed data at ESMO, both efficacy and safety that we think are very competitive. We are fully aware of the intensive competition in this space. There's particularly one company that is ahead of us. However, what we have -- our plan is to combine with chemotherapy, and we've done that work already to show that we can combine our G12D inhibitor with both types of chemotherapy used in first-line pancreatic cancer, which are gem/nab or gem/Abraxane and FOLFIRINOX.
And in the U.S., about 60% of the patients get FOLFIRINOX, 40% gem/Abraxane. Worldwide, that's about 50-50. So we think it's important for physicians and for patients in the long run to have a G12D inhibitor that can be given with both main types of chemotherapy. That's a key difference. That trial will be implemented in early 2026. It's a race with our competitors for first-line pancreatic. We think we can execute well, and we think we have a differentiated plan here by being able to combine with both types of chemotherapy. Obviously, first-line pancreatic is a very large market. So that's the key -- that the central component of the strategy of our G12D.
We have other things we're thinking about doing, particularly combination with Erbitux, which we think could be important because we have seen no RAS with our product as opposed to what some of our competitors have seen with pan-RAS inhibitors.
TGF-beta PD-1 is an interesting story because it's the only at this point, as far as we know, TGF-beta receptor 2 by PD-1 bispecific. And what we've done is we've designed this to block the TGF-beta receptor 2 only in cells that express PD-1. By doing that, we have so far eliminated the TGF-beta-related side effects that have plagued TGF-beta approaches in the past.
What we showed at ESMO was the best response rate ever reported with a PD-1, PD-1 like in MSS colorectal cancer. 15% of the patients responded, including those with liver mets, so we're very excited about that data. We've combined the bispecific with chemotherapy with FOLFOX-bevacizumab, and we're moving straight to first-line MSS colorectal. We think that the paradigm of taking responses from late-line therapy, combining with chemotherapy in early lines with the PD-1 plus had been done before. We need to execute on that trial. We think that's an enormous market opportunity. Obviously, it's 80%, 85% of colorectal cancer patients. I gave you the very rapid blurb there where we are with solid tumors.
And so this is one where both -- it must bind both. That's the point. Is that right?
It has to bind PD-1 for the TGF-beta receptor arm to engage. And that's key because that way, you only block the beta receptor 2, the TGF-beta with PD-1 is present. So ideally, you focus that on the tumor microenvironment. And when we showed the dose escalation data, if you exceed the recommended dose, if you get to 1,500 milligrams, then you start to see TGF-beta related side effects. But up to 900 milligrams every other week, you just don't.
Okay. And then this -- the logical strategy question is, are these getting equal priority? Is one more of the favorite than the other? CDK2 sounds like you really like that one a lot, too. Well, you got already in Phase III there.
So I want to make sure we didn't forget that one. But look, I think CDK2 enters a very competitive space versus ADCs in ovarian -- so we're aware of that. The efficacy that has been shown with ADCs has higher response rates than we have. We have the advantage of an oral and a very well-tolerated drug. So we think it's important, particularly in maintenance. So we're executing on that plan.
On the other 2, it's about executing on pancreatic first-line, colorectal first-line. Those are the central focus. We're discussing whether there's a path to expand from that. But the focus right now is to execute on those 2 trials.
Okay. And then just sort of last portfolio question. You've got a lot of things going on and a lot of interesting assets. Is there a BD pipeline that you're looking at for other opportunities? Or do you feel you have enough on the plate at the moment? What else could we look forward to?
Yes, it's a good question. It will be used to extend the core to supplement what we're doing internally. We'll be focused on hematology, oncology and I&I. I think the most important part of BD is to have a good framework, first and foremost, and then a lot of throughput so that when you do something, you know what the opportunity cost is and you know if it's right. And it's about calling balls and strikes essentially. And it will be part of it. Right now, we're focused on the 7 projects we just spent time talking to you about.
All right. Well, we'll be at ASH. We'll look forward to the data, and thank you both for joining.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you. Thanks, everyone.
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Incyte — Citi Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
Incyte — Citi Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Incyte will den Übergang nach dem erwarteten Patentauslauf von Jakafi schaffen, indem es sich zu einem Häm/Onk‑ und Immunologie‑Unternehmen wandelt. Ziel: Basisgeschäft (exkl. Jakafi) bis 2029 ähnlich groß wie Jakafi, 7 Spätphasenprogramme plus BD sollen 15–20% 5‑J‑CAGR ermöglichen.
🚀 Strategische Highlights
- Jakafi‑XR: Einmal‑täglich‑Formulierung geplant Mitte 2026; Management rechnet mit 15–30% Konversion (Mittelwert ~20%), womit ~$0,75 Mrd Umsatz bis 2029 erhalten werden könnten.
- 989 (mut. CALR): ASH‑Updates zeigen klinische Effekte (Thrombozyten‑Normalisierung, Splenomegalie‑Reduktion, Anämie‑Besserung) plus translationalen Rückgang der Mutationslast; Phase‑III‑Start 2026 targetiert.
- I&I & Onkologie: Opzelura ~$650M Basis mit ~10% CAGR; povorcitinib (HS/PN/vitiligo) EU‑Einreichung in, US‑Submission early‑2026; solide G12D, TGF‑β/PD‑1 und CDK2 Programme in Vorbereitung/Start 2026.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Timelines: Jakafi‑XR Launch Mitte 2026; 989 Phase‑III‑Rollout für ET und MF in 2026; EU‑Submission für povorcitinib bestätigt, US‑Einreichung geplant early‑2026 mit möglicher Zulassung spät‑2026/early‑2027.
- ASH‑Daten: 3 Abstracts zu 989 (ET, MF, translational) werden die disease‑modifying Daten detaillieren; Investorenevent angekündigt.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- XR‑Assumpt.: Kritische Fragen zur Preisfindung, Formulary‑Zugang und realer Konversionsrate; Management nennt erwartete Bandbreite, aber nicht Preisdetails.
- 989‑Position: Nachfrage zur Sequenzierung (2nd‑line vs. 1st‑line) und Konkurrenz; Management betont Lead‑Position, bleibt bei konkreten Zulassungswegen teilweise vage.
- Povo/Opzelura: Marktgrößen und Indikationsaufteilungen (HS vs. PN vs. Vitiligo/AD) wurden diskutiert; Zeitpläne klarer für EU/US‑Einreichungen, kommerzielle Penetration bleibt Ausführungsfrage.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Konferenz liefert klare, near‑term‑Katalysatoren (ASH‑989, Jakafi‑XR, povorcitinib/Opzelura Zulassungen) die das Jakafi‑LOE‑Risiko kompensieren können. Die Bewertung hängt stark von Execution‑Risiken: Zulassungen, Formulary‑Erfolg und schnelle, fehlerfreie Phase‑III‑Rollouts in 2026 ab.
Incyte — Jefferies London Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
All right. Good morning. Thank you, everyone, for joining Jefferies Healthcare Conference in London. My name is Clara Dong, one of the Biotech Analysts here at Jefferies. So sitting next to me, we have the Chief Executive Officer from Incyte, Bill Meury and the Head of R&D, Pablo Cagnoni. Thank you very much for joining for this discussion. Welcome.
Nice to be here.
Thank you. Good to be here.
So Bill, let's start from the big picture. You've been in the CEO role for 6 months now. Tell us how you've enjoyed your time since joining and how your initial vision is coming to life?
Good afternoon, everyone. It's good to see you. It's been busy. Great company. Great culture, I think, strong organizational DNA and most importantly, which is one of the reasons I joined, just a lot of substrate in terms of meaningful product flow over the next several years. In terms of the vision, our focus right now has got to be on one thing, and that's transitioning Incyte from essentially a Jakafi company to a high-growth hem/onc and I&I business.
We are hyperfocused right now on 3 verticals or areas: hematology, more specifically MPNs, blood cancer; second, solid tumor oncology and I&I. In hematology, I think we have an opportunity or a window of opportunity to transition that market from nonspecific symptomatic therapies to mutation-specific targeted therapies. In solid tumors, we've systematically, strategically and quietly up until ESMO, developed what could be a high potential oncology portfolio across ovarian, pancreatic and colorectal. And then in I&I, it's a franchise play. And ultimately, what we're trying to do is build a glide path to high growth and durable revenue and earnings and cash flow out into the future. And 2026 is going to be about executing 5 Phase III programs across those 3 areas.
So as you mentioned, Jakafi has been really the cornerstone for Incyte for the past years. And sorry, I have to ask this question, so let's just get it out of the way early. And the loss of exclusivity, how are you thinking -- how are you planning to really navigate that through your kind of life cycle management in your MPM franchise and especially with your mCALR program as well?
Yes, it's a good question. We're not going to cut our way through or buy our way through 2029. I think we get through it 3 ways. First is our core business has to continue to meet or exceed expectations and our core business today, excluding Jakafi, should be as big as Jakafi in 2029, all right? That's number one. Number two, we have 7 pipeline projects that are in mid- to late stages of development. And those will start to launch in the 2029 period.
Third, we'll control our cost base and manage our expenses. And what that means is streamlining in areas that we can and at the same time, making sure that we don't underfund any critical initiatives that compromise future growth. And there is enough substrate here so that when we look out in the future post Jakafi, we see a business that has the potential, I don't expect anyone to take my word for it, but has the potential to grow at a 15% to 20% CAGR, a business where we have instead of one product north of $1 billion today, Jakafi, we could have 3 to 5 products north of $1 billion. And just as importantly, as those 2 things, LOE exposure of only 15% to 20% as opposed to where we are today, which is much higher and healthy operating margins.
Great. Maybe let's directly turn to your mCALR program. I mean, investors are watching very closely ahead of the ASH update this year. So maybe at a high level, just tell us why is this program so important and meaningful for patients with myelofibrosis and in ET as well, which folks might be less familiar with?
I'll make a few comments and then ask Pablo to talk about it, too. First of all, hematology is a central identity of the company. This is an outlier opportunity. Now it hasn't fully declared itself, but we've derisked the program with Phase I data that we presented in abstract form, and we'll have more data at the ASH Meeting. There is -- there are no targeted treatments available for blood cancer, MPNs, MF, PV and ET, very different than in other cancers where you have targeted treatments.
We've produced meaningful data that shows that 989 is a superior approach, no head-to-head data yet, but it is a superior approach to the standard of care in MF and to the standard of care in ET. And this business has the potential to at least replace Jakafi. Where we are right now is to convert Phase I results into a Phase III trial and an FDA approval. And I'd just ask Pablo to just make a few comments about the data and how he sees it as a transplanter.
So let's first agree on what we're going to see at ASH. We showed just to recap a little bit of what happened over the past 6 months at EHA 5 months ago, we showed data in ET. We showed very clearly that 989 was well tolerated by patients, and it basically normalized, not reduced, normalized platelets and almost all the patients that were treated despite the fact that data was at a range of doses in a Phase I study. And we also saw significant reductions in VAF, which is arguably a lagging indicator of the fact that the drug is basically reducing the burden of the disease, and we can elaborate further.
At ASH, we're going to have 3 abstracts where we put out 3 abstracts, and there will be presentations accordingly. One, updating the ET data, a little bit more data. There's a little more data in the abstract than EHA, but there will be a little bit more data at ASH, again, showing consistently that there is normalization of platelet count together with reduction in the burden of the disease. And there's a couple of different measures to establish that. We'll then have a translational abstract or we have a translation that gets into more detail into what 989 is doing to the bone marrow, to the immature CALR mutated population in peripheral blood as well as VAF.
So this comprehensive understanding of why 989 is so important for patients is going back to the question, which is a disease-transforming targeted therapy as opposed to a nonspecific cytotoxic. And the third data set, which I found -- I think is the one you're most eagerly awaiting is MF. Obviously, there's a lot of data in the abstract. I think directionally, that's the data you're going to see. You're going to see more data at ASH, consistently showing that single-agent 989 leads to substantial reduction in the spleen size, improvement in symptoms, improvement in anemia and the disease-modifying aspect, again, reflected not just in VAF, but most importantly, in reducing the number of mutated megakaryocytes in the bone marrow and reducing the number of immature mutated cells in peripheral blood, both of which are leading indicators of the disease-modifying aspect of 989, which is why we think is such an important medicine for patients and eventually for the business.
And then when we see the ASH data in December, what kind of benchmark should we look at? Maybe you have your own Jakafi and then there are other approved JAK inhibitors as well. So what's the most relevant benchmark here?
Look, we can -- I'm sure everybody in the room has their favorite benchmark. So if you look at second-line MF, you always have to be careful when you look at comparables to look at the right eligibility criteria for patients in different studies, right? The data in the abstract and SVR35 of 30% with reduction in symptoms and improvement in anemia over 50% of the patients. There's no precedent for that kind of data in this same population. This is a Phase I population, patients with a range of doses.
The higher doses tend to have shorter follow-up, so they had less time to work. So let's keep that in mind. The most recent approval in second-line MF is momelotinib. Depending on the momelotinib trial you look at, it's between 7% and 22% SVR35. I think the difference there is basically the patients that were enrolled in one study versus the other. For the combination data with 989, we need more time. The data that we put out in the abstract confirms that the 2 drugs can be combined safely in patients with MF.
And in a population of patients that achieved a ceiling on the benefit of Jakafi, there's still room for improvement when you at 989 in terms of spleen symptoms as well. So that data needs to evolve a little bit further, but we're very confident in the direction it's going. The data that we won't have yet, but we'll have next year is in naive patients. We are enrolling that cohort now. We're treating previously untreated MF with 989 alone or 989 in combination with Jakafi. We'll have the data in 2026. That's the data that will inform the first-line MF trial.
And just to add to the benchmarks, if you look at ET for a second, in the abstract, the complete hematological response was 73%. If you look at real-world efficacy data with hydroxyurea, it's between 25% and 50%. So it's pretty clear. And then on the MF side, look, if you look at the label for Jakafi, the SVR 35 is between 28% and 40%, and our abstract is at 30%. And then on anemia response, as Pablo said, if you look at the Jakafi label, obviously, there's no anemia response. There's actually grade 3 anemia in about 34% of patients. So it's just a fundamentally different data set and approach.
And then besides SVR35 and TSS50, I mean, for folks who might be less familiar, you're also reporting VAF reduction as well. So maybe just tell us a little bit about the significance of VAF reduction and how -- like how should we interpret VAF reduction in terms of clinical benefit?
Yes. So the first point, I think anybody has to remember is VAF is a lagging indicator of what's truly going on in terms of reducing the burden of the disease, okay? And the reason is when you think about it, what's truly going on here is that it's an abnormal population of cells in the bone marrow are CALR mutated megakaryocytes. And there's a spillover of mutated early progenitor cells in peripheral blood. These 2 populations are generating the malignant cells in MF and ET. Reducing those, it's critical. And that's what 989 does.
As a result of reducing those over time, you will see decreases in VAF. VAF is easier to assess. It's just a peripheral blood sample, it's simpler, but it's a lagging indicator of what's truly going on when you give 989 to patients with ET and MF. We showed at EHA that there seems to be a correlation, maybe not hardly -- hard established correlation yet, but a correlation directionally between reduction in VAF and complete hematologic response. That was data we presented a few months ago. And we are seeing in almost all the patients with MF, a certain reduction in VAF. The magnitude is smaller than we've seen in ET. I think it needs more time. It needs more time because the starting VAF in MF patients is higher and because the residual wild-type clone, the benign cells are smaller in MF. So that flip, that ratio takes longer to occur. But as long as we reduce the source of the disease, bone marrow and CD34-positive peripheral blood population, over time, the VAF will continue to come down, and that's what we expect to happen.
And then maybe talk about your time line to start pivotal development. I think you touched on a little on your recent earnings update as well. So any regulatory interactions related to potential trial design and any possibility of using like a composite endpoint, including VA reduction as well?
So our most urgent trial now is second-line ET. It's pretty straightforward. The design is simple. You've seen the data at EHA. We think we have a medicine that is superior to anything that has been tested in second-line ET patients. So design, we've already started conversations with FDA, and we'll finalize the design and start that in 2026. I assume at this point, to be clear that the approval is going to be based on conventional endpoints such as hematologic response. We will have a conversation with FDA about incorporating VAF and some capacity, maybe as a key secondary endpoint. I think it's important to inform treatment decisions. But while directionally, it seems that lower VAF leads to better hematologic outcomes, I'm not sure the data are ready for the FDA to accept as an approval endpoint, just to be clear.
But we're going to try to incorporate some capacity. So that's ET. We're not convinced about the need of a trial -- of a pivotal trial in first-line ET. We think that with 989 approved in second-line ET, the pressure to switch patients from hydroxyurea, which is toxic and convenient and doesn't really modify the natural history of the disease, probably the pressure to switch patients will be intense. So we're debating that. We haven't said -- we're not saying no, but it's not an urgent need right now.
MF, sort of the same. Second-line MF is pretty straightforward. We have data in a population of ineligible suboptimal and intolerant to Jakafi patients, which is what we've been talking about. So it will be a single agent 989 with a controlled arm, incorporate the best available therapies for MF. We think that's pretty straightforward as well. The one thing that there comes into play that is very important is anemia. More than half the patients in the abstract, as you saw, have anemia improvement, which is something I haven't really been seen in patients with MF. And we think that we'll try to incorporate that in the endpoints for the trial. We think it's important for patients, and it's important for treatment decisions. First-line MF, we need the data from the naive patients with both 989 and the combination. We'll have that data in the early part of '26. Our goal in '26 is to start more than one pivotal trial with 989. The most urgent one right now is second-line ET.
Got it. And I also want to touch on the JAK2 V617F. We recently announced the acquisition of Prelude inhibitor. I mean what drove that decision? And how should we think about the position of that asset in the landscape of the other efforts you are making in the MF?
Yes. Our goal by the end of the decade, early next decade is to have a new treatment for every single patient with myeloproliferative neoplasm, okay? And that, obviously, CALR, we discussed 25% to 35% of ET and MF and then leaves our V617F, which is almost all the patients with PV and the remaining MF and ET patients. So we have a program in the clinic. We just introduced a new formulation because the previous formulation could not get to the right exposures that we predicted would be necessary to inhibit the target. The new formulation has been introduced. The thesis is very much alive.
We believe we're convinced that inhibiting the pseudokinase and V617F in a selective manner will lead to good outcomes in patients with a V617F mutation. Now like with other programs, we have internal backup programs, and we're constantly scanning the landscape to understand what else is out there that is potentially different from what we're doing. We saw a series of compounds from Prelude, as you pointed out, and we thought it was important to have an option to acquire them if the data convinces us at the right time. That's simply what's going on. We're pushing our lead program forward. We're still studying our backups. This is another set of backups basically that are external to Incyte right now.
And just to put in the context, the targeted treatments we have in development, today, as successful as Jakafi has been, it's used in roughly 20,000 people. So only 20% -- less than 20% of people with MPNs. We, of course, have work to do with both 989 and 617. But if we can successfully move these products forward, you'd cover an addressable market that's about 2 to 3x that between the small molecule and the monoclonal antibody.
Got it. And I'm going to go by chronological order. Maybe recently also presented some data at ESMO in solid tumor. So let's discuss on that a little. I mean, for your KRAS G12D inhibitor in PDAC, maybe walk us through your key highlights there. And then another exciting program is your TGFß, PD-1 bispecific and you're actually assuming initiating Phase III program in early '26. So tell us what you've seen give you such strong conviction to have the program move forward very fast?
So let me start with the second one. So what we presented at ESMO for our bispecific PD-1 by TGFß receptor 2, arguably or not is the best anti-PD-1 data ever presented in late-line colorectal cancer, MSS colorectal, okay? We show response in patients with liver metastases and without. We showed long duration of responses and a response of about 15%, which may not sound like a lot, but in MSS colorectal in third, fourth line, there's 3 or 4 studies with nivo, pembro, atezolizumab, et cetera, 0% responders.
So we saw that signal. We think it's real. We treated more than 100 patients. So it's not like we treated a handful of patients. So it's a sizable data set that convinces us we have an active drug in late-line MSS colorectal. So instead of going line by line backwards like people tend to do in oncology, we decided to combine that PD-1 TGFß receptor bispecific with chemotherapy and move straight into first-line colorectal. We are enrolling that cohort to have clarity on the safety, which we established already, by the way, we established we can combine them. We'll see what the response rate looks like.
But in parallel with that, we're implementing a first-line MSS colorectal trial in combination with chemotherapy and bevacizumab. So we're basically bringing 3 distinct mechanisms to the table. So obviously, chemotherapy is in the background. We're giving these patients Avastin. So they get bev plus PD-1 plus TGFß. You're bringing 3 additional mechanisms to the chemotherapy. We think that is a very strong thesis to advance that medicine in early line.
We have also good data, very good data in head and neck, lung and ovarian. We're trying to decide how to actionable that data are, and we'll give an update in the near future. So that's TGFß. On G12D, we have data in mostly third line, a little bit second line, but mostly third, fourth line PDAC that convinces us that we have a very competitive agent. We have some low-grade GI side effects that we reported. We have shown that we can combine with chemotherapy, both with Gem/Nab and with FOLFIRINOX.
So again, we decided to move as quickly as possible to first line. We're fully aware of the competition. We think it's a race to first-line pancreatic cancer. We think our ability to combine with both types of chemotherapy that get used in first-line pancreatic is going to be an important differentiator. Now as with TGFß, in parallel with initiating the Phase III trial, we continue to track the response rate and the duration of response to make sure that with more data, we're still convinced on the activity of that compound. And if so, it will be a race to first-line PDAC.
When should we expect the next update from them?
We haven't decided exactly. I mean everybody knows what the right meetings are in 2026. At some point during 2026, probably in the first half at that point, we'll provide an update what these programs are. But our goal now is to initiate these trials as soon as possible.
Got it. And maybe let's switch to your dermatology and broad I&I franchise. Bill, as your I&I portfolio continues to expand, how should we think about the role you see I&I is playing in your company's overall growth? And like what's kind of your forward strategy to develop this franchise further?
Yes. The next step is povorcitinib, and we'll have the only sort of franchise that consists of a topical to oral solution covering mild to severe disease as well as local to extensive skin involvement. Povo mechanistically covers multiple cytokines. I think that is an advantage in a multi-cytokine condition like HS. I think it will be differentiated relative to an IL-17 or to a TNF-Alpha. If you look at the data from our HS studies, we had rapid pain relief and skin clearance that was on par with biologics.
And of course, it's an oral. And I think there's a treatment gap right now in HS that exists between oral or topical antibiotics and IL-17 or TNF-Alpha. It's no different than what the position that Otezla occupied in psoriasis. The difference is povo is a high efficacy option. And we expect to introduce it probably in early, early 2027. It's going to be an important part of the growth of the business. It may not be as big as our hematology business, but I&I is valuable to us, especially in immune-mediated skin conditions. And if we can add to that through our internal research or external business development, we'll do that.
And what are the remaining steps for regulatory submission for povo in the U.S.? And then what are the other opportunities beyond HS for?
Yes. Well, we expect to submit an NDA in the first quarter of 2026. We're also running 2 Phase III programs for prurigo nodularis and for vitiligo. In PN, that condition was made for JAK inhibitors. Itch is the defining symptom of the condition. We know they work, especially with Opzelura extremely well on itch, and that will be an important driver of future sales and utilization of povo. And then for vitiligo, there's a large portion of the vitiligo population that has BSA involvement of greater than 5% that is sort of not using topicals. It's just not as practical. And so povorcitinib is going to open up a larger portion of that market. And I think Opzelura and povo will sit next to each other as a treatment solution for dermatologists.
Great. And for the last minute, though, I also want to ask, how do you balance your investment in internal R&D versus maybe external business development opportunities? And what kind of factors maybe it took to go one way or the other for insight?
Yes, it's a good question. I think most companies have to be agnostic. We can't have a bias towards internal or external innovation. We're more interested in strengthening the portfolio and outcomes than the source of a deal. And every project, whether it's internal, external, has to get put through a scoring system and ranked in terms of strategic fit and PTRS and rate of return. And the pressure to fill pipelines is unforgiving. And so we look at anything and treat it the same.
Great. That brings us to the end of our discussion. And thank you, Bill; thank you, Pablo, for this discussion, and thank you for the audience online and in person for joining us. Enjoy the rest of the conference. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thanks.
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Incyte — Jefferies London Healthcare Conference 2025
Incyte — Jefferies London Healthcare Conference 2025
📌 Kernbotschaft
- Strategie: CEO Bill Meury fokussiert Incyte auf drei Wachstumsfelder: Hämatologie (MPNs), solide Tumoren und Inflammation & Immunologie (I&I), mit dem Ziel, das Unternehmen von einem „Jakafi“-fokussierten zu einem multi‑produkt, wachstumsgetriebenen Unternehmen zu transformieren.
- Zentrales Timing: LOE (Loss of exclusivity) von Jakafi 2029; Ziel ist ein Portfoliowechsel mit mehreren launches und 15–20% CAGR im Folgezeitraum.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- mCALR (989): Schwerpunkt auf myelofibrosis (MF) und essential thrombocythemia (ET). Phase‑I‑Signale: SVR35 ~30% in MF, komplette hämatologische Remission 73% in ET (Abstract); ASH‑Updates im Dezember erwartet.
- Onkologie: PD‑1/TGFβ‑bispezifikum zeigt ~15% Ansprechrate in spätlinigem MSS‑Kolorektalkarzinom; Ziel: direkt in 1L Kombinations‑Phase‑III (Chemo + Bevacizumab). KRAS G12D‑Inhibitor wird Richtung 1L Pankreas vorangetrieben.
- I&I & Dermatologie: Povorctinib (povo) als oral/topikal Franchise; NDA geplant Q1 2026, Ziel‑Markteintritt Anfang 2027; zusätzlich Phase‑III in Prurigo und Vitiligo.
🔎 Neue Informationen
- Phase‑III‑Plan 2026: Management plant, 2026 fünf Phase‑III‑Programme zu starten und mehrere pivotal Trials für 989 einzuleiten; Priorität: second‑line ET und second‑line MF.
- Regulatorik: FDA‑Dialoge laufen; VAF (variant allele frequency) soll als sekundärer Endpunkt geprüft werden, primäre Zulassungsendpunkte bleiben konventionell (hämatologische Endpunkte, SVR/TSS).
- BD‑Akquisition: Prelude‑Asset für JAK2 V617F als ergänzender Backup‑Ansatz; neue Formulierung eingeführt, Programm weiterverfolgt.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- LOE‑Risiko: Wie ersetzt Incyte Jakafi‑Umsatz? Antwort: Mischung aus organischem Wachstum, 7 mittleren/späten Programmen, Kostendisziplin, Ziel 3–5 Produkte >$1 Mrd.
- Benchmarking 989: Analysten fragten nach Vergleich zu JAK‑Inhibitoren; Management nennt Momelotinib (SVR35 7–22%) und Jakafi‑Label (28–40%) und betont überlegene Anämie‑Profile und VAF‑Reduktion als Differenzierer.
- Onkologie‑Tempo: Wegen starker Signals in MSS CRC und PDAC plant Incyte direkte Schritte in 1L; Analysten wollten Timing für Updates — Management nennt H1/2026‑Updates und Trialstarts.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Das Management verkauft einen klaren Re‑Ramping‑Plan: aggressive klinische Entwicklung 2026, mehrere potenzielle Bestseller‑Beteiligungen und gezielte Backs‑ups sollen Jakafi‑LOE 2029 abfedern. Aktie bleibt stark von klinischem Fortschritt (insb. ASH‑989, Onkologie‑Phase‑III) abhängig; verlässliche Meilensteine in 2026 werden entscheidend für Kursreaktionen.
Incyte — Guggenheim Securities 2nd Annual Healthcare Innovation Conference
1. Question Answer
All right. So welcome to this fireside chat with Incyte. It is my great pleasure to welcome Bill Meury, President and CEO; as well as Pablo Cagnoni, the Head of R&D. Welcome. Thanks for joining us.
Nice to be here.
Good to be here. Thank you, Michael.
So Bill, perhaps just starting out with a bigger picture question. To what degree have your initial expectations been met since you joined the company earlier this summer? And have your strategic priorities changed in any way?
Good question. Thanks, Michael. I would say 3 things as it relates to my expectations. I have a much greater appreciation today about the depth of our MPN portfolio. I mean Incyte's central identity is a hematology company, namely MPNs. And we have 3 targeted therapies entering mid- to late stages of development, 989,617, a bispecific. We have some undisclosed discovery programs. And I think we have a window of opportunity here to transition that market from today, which is essentially nonspecific symptomatic therapies to mutation-specific targeted therapies. And I think it's going to be an important part of the growth story. That's number one.
Number two, I think the company strategically, systematically has and quietly has developed what could be a high potential solid tumor oncology portfolio. Our G12D TGF-beta by PD-1 programs haven't fully declared themselves. But at ESMO this year, we really derisked both programs. We're planning to initiate Phase III pending more data and regulatory interactions. But it's much more than I expected when I came in. And the last point relates to capabilities. I think the R&D organization really punches above its weight. I think we have a top 10 quality R&D organization without some of the complexity and process associated with a top 10 company.
And I guess the last comment I would make, I think the core business, excluding Jakafi, that business that will exist well past 2029, fundamentally is in a very strong position. As it relates to strategic high priorities, we're going to press on our advantage in MPNs. That's number one. We are going to get our R&D spending exactly where we want to be. I think what we're focused on right now is fewer, higher-quality investments. We're not going to be scattershot. We're not going to suffer from diffuse spending.
Next, we're going to get our cost base right and separate the good cost from the bad costs. We'll streamline in areas where it makes sense, but we will make sure that we don't underfund critical initiatives or compromise future growth. But after roughly 130, 140 days, I think we're in a very good place. We got to convert all these Phase I studies into Phase III programs and FDA approvals. And we don't expect people to take our word for it. We have to turn science into revenue, earnings and cash flow, and that's what the focus is right now.
Great. And then just another high-level question, Bill. What is your approach to balancing capital allocation to either fund potential larger acquisitions, perhaps beyond some of the tuck-ins we've seen recently with internal R&D investments and potentially even share buybacks at some point?
Yes, it's a good question. A couple of basic principles. We don't think we can buy our way through 2029. I don't think that's the way we think about BD. BD is going to supplement what we're doing internally, namely in hematology, oncology, and I&I. As you know, there are very few positive asymmetrical opportunities out there. What I can promise you is that we will have a great deal of throughput, and we will have a framework so that we know exactly what our criteria are for doing a deal.
And we know what the opportunity costs are. We have a strong balance sheet that's continuing to grow. And internal investments and external investments are looked at the same way. They're put through a framework, a scorecard and they're ranked in terms of strategic value and then importantly, IRR. And if we see things that are going to build a high -- support a high-growth durable business well into the next decade that's the type of deal we're going to do. It's not to solve sort of a revenue gap in the short term.
Right. Then maybe shifting over to discussing some of the pipeline opportunities. MPNs are clearly a core competency of Incyte with Jakafi being the leading JAK inhibitor on the market for some time now. As we think about the mutant CALR opportunity and 989, your antibody product candidate here, which could really emerge as a differentiated product in this space. First of all, how do you think about the overall commercial opportunity for 989 in MF and ET?
Yes. Thanks for the question. I'd start at the end. If you look at the data we produce in ET and MF Phase I data, and so we have more work to do. It has the potential to replace Jakafi. It's a superior alternative to HU and ET. And whether it's first line or second line or monotherapy in combination for patients with MF, it is also a superior treatment. And so we are going to design a Phase III program, which we expect to start in the middle of 2026, give or take, that is going to be -- and I'll let Pablo comment on this, that is designed to demonstrate the clinical utility of 989 in both of those conditions and in various clinical situations. That's what our focus is right now.
You'll see more data at ASH. But we have what I think is a clear path to a Phase III program and ultimately an FDA approval. Just one more comment on the commercial opportunity. On the ET side of the house, very, very big market. 20,000 patients with a CALR mutation with ET. I think you got to bifurcate that market. You have low risk, high risk. You have a large group of partial responders and a large group of patients who are resistant to hydroxyurea, which is a negative prognostic indicator for survival. That's a $5 billion market when you think about it commercially. And we're going to get a significant portion of that. On the MF side of the house, very different situation, of course, smaller number of people, about 10,000 with a CALR mutation, much more aggressive cancer. The risk of transformation is much higher. That's about a $2.5 billion market.
And in patients with a CALR mutation in MF, I expect us to get a very, very high share. And so when you put the 2 pieces together, you can certainly pencil out without heroic assumptions, a replacement for Jakafi as a base case. And Pablo could, of course, speak about how we're thinking about development and the data that we just shared in the abstracts.
So there are a range of options, as Bill mentioned, before the end of the year, we're going to provide an update on the ET data that we presented at EHA, which we showed clear evidence of normalization of platelet counts, a well-tolerated profile with only one of the patients that discontinued due to an adverse event at that point and clear evidence of disease modification based on the motor endpoints, not just VAF, but reduction of malignant megakaryocytes that's in the bone marrow and reduction of immature progenitors in peripheral blood.
So 989 in ET patients we showed at EHA, and we're going to update that at ASH clearly does what it was meant to do. Now then we put up the abstract for the MF data for the first time last week. We're going to have more data on that at the ASH meeting as well. But what you've seen in MF is, in a way, similar to ET, clear impact on clinical endpoints, spleen shrinkage, improvement in symptoms, improvement in anemia, more than half the patients, which we're very pleased to see and molecular endpoints as well, karyocytes, peripheral blood reduction in progenitors and VAF improvements.
All that, once again, with a well-tolerated profile, patients are staying on drug, which ultimately tells you they are tolerating it well. So question is what do we do next? And we have a number of steps to take in the next few months, and we're going as fast as we can to initiate a second-line study in ET, which we mentioned back at EHA. The goal is to start that sometime in the first half of 2026. We think it's a pretty straightforward design. In ET, really the term second line is a little bit of a misnomer because a lot of the patients just don't want to be on hydroxyurea because of tolerance or because of constant dose adjustments to prevent reduction in white cell count.
So patients that have previously been exposed to hydroxyurea that need a better alternative. That's the population we think is the fastest way to get 989 approved in ET patients. We're not discounting a first-line trial, which is not the highest priority right now. In MF, the options are going in post-Jakafi patients. That's a population that desperately needs new therapies. There's a number of medicines approved in that setting over the past few years, none of which are very good at doing what these patients need, which is spleen shrinkage, symptom improvement and anemia improvement, not just less anemia, but anemia improvement.
We think 989 has the potential to do that. That's, again, high priority in MF. And then the question is first-line MF. That's something we're already thinking about. We're generating data in patients -- in naive patients with MF. That work is ongoing. We will not present it this year, but it's ongoing, both 989 as a single agent and 989 in combination with ruxolitinib to understand how to design that trial. It's our goal to make this available to patients with previously untreated MF, but we just need a little bit more data to design the study. But that's basically the path we're going to follow. And all this is going to be rolled out over the course of 2026.
Yes. And just one comment on the anemia that Pablo talked about. Mayo Clinic did a study and looked at patients with MF who had no anemia versus patients with MF and anemia and the difference in survival. No anemia, it was 7.9 years. Anemia, it was between 2.3 and 3.4 years. And so every day, hematologists are dealing with a trade-off decision. I can control symptoms and shrink the spleen cause anemia, which could impact survival or I can avoid anemia and not control the condition. So to a certain extent, 989 addresses this Jakafi anemia paradox, and it could be a really important aspect of the profile, and that's what we see in the Phase I data.
Maybe just a follow-up, Pablo. The data in the ASH abstracts, especially in the MF study was really surprisingly impressive, especially on the SVR rates. Maybe talk a bit more about how much more you'll share at ASH as it relates to some of the other outcomes.
So we'll have a few more patients. It's a different data cut. So a few more patients, about 15%, maybe 20% more patients in the presentation that are in the abstract and the follow-up gets extended. Now the median doesn't change a lot because you keep adding new patients and so the median sort of moves a little bit around. But obviously, the patients at the lower doses will have much longer follow-up. There will be patients added that were treated at higher doses with short follow-up.
So I think it will be important incrementally to continue to reassure us and everyone else of the well-tolerated profile of 989 and the effects on spleen symptoms and anemia. In addition, we'll have a very detailed presentation of the translational endpoints. And that's really important because for all the good things 989 seems to do for these patients on the clinical side, what is absolutely unique about it is its ability to reduce the burden of the disease without impacting benign hematopoiesis.
And that's measured in 3 ways. We'll talk about VAF, which is really a ligand indicator of what's going on in the bone marrow, reduction of malignant megakaryocytes in the bone marrow, reduction of malignant progenitors in peripheral blood. And as a result of that, when those go down -- it's like shutting down the faucet, when those go down, VAF will go down over time. The effect in VAF that we report in the abstract in MF is clear. And our expectation is that over time, that effect will deepen as the impact of shutting down the disease comes into play.
You did recently announce a collaboration with a company called Enable to develop a subcu formulation in a way of 989. So perhaps talk about the collaboration a little bit more and how this fits into the overall development strategy.
So we think subcu is important. These are chronic diseases. Our goal here is to really induce disease modification, which we think will lead to a very long duration of therapy in these patients. The current schedule for 989 is IV every other week. As soon as we had an understanding of what the recommended dose for future testing would be, we accelerate the testing of the subcu formulation. Now because of the volume that it will be required to infuse somewhere between 1,500 and 2,500 milligrams every other week, we decided to put in place a collaboration with a company called enFuse. They have a device called Enable.
To be clear, what this is not. This is not something a patient has to wear all the time. This is something that they simply put on their body when they need to be infused. They push a button, it takes between 10 and 20 minutes depending on the dose. And after that, they remove the device. And in between doses, they don't wear anything. So it's a device that has been used for marketed drugs already. We're really very happy with the collaboration. Our goal is to accelerate this development as much as possible. It probably will not be part of the initial trial in ET, but we'll integrate it into development plan as soon as we can.
So think about it as a fast follow-up when J&J was the gold standard for this when IV subcu and it was about 6 to 9 months that's the same strategy that we're going to apply here at Incyte.
Right. Sounds good. Maybe just one more on MPNs. Just recently did announce an acquisition of a JAK2 selective inhibitor. Maybe just talk about generally how a JAK2 selective molecule fits into your overall longer-term strategy in MPNs and specifically, what made that program attractive?
So our goal by the end of this decade or early next decade is to have a medicine, a solution for every patient with a myeloproliferative neoplasm, okay, across the board, ET, MF, PV, CALR, 617F mutations. Part of that strategy, obviously, CALR is the first data set in that targeted strategy. We have a V617F inhibitor program in the clinic. We introduced a new formulation. We need to escalate the dose to confirm the hypothesis that inhibiting that target leads to important clinical outcomes in patients with V617F mutated MPNs.
Now in that context, I think it's important to know that not all the best ideas sometimes might or may not be inside Incyte. There is a group with a company called Prelude that developed what we think is an interesting suite of V617F inhibitors. And so we decided that needs to be part of the strategy. So we put in place a deal that was announced last week by which we have the option to acquire the V617F inhibitors.
These are important for us to complete the range of options that we have internally. We also have internal backup programs. And basically here, the best molecule will win. That's basically what we're going to do. We're going to run this through the logical steps. The lead is in the clinic. The others will be introduced in the clinic in the relatively near term. And in the long run, the best molecule will win.
All right. And then maybe switching over to your inflammatory portfolio. Povorcitinib is a really interesting drug, we think, and physicians that we spoke with more recently are very excited about the longer-term follow-up data, especially in HS. And so maybe stepping back, Bill, talk about how you think about the povorcitinib opportunity overall and then specifically in the HS market.
I think first, I'd start with we're building a franchise in immune-mediated skin conditions. That is we should be the only company with a topical to oral solution, Opzelura and povo, cover mild-to-severe disease, Opzelura and povo and localize an extensive disease. But as it relates, Michael, to povo for HS, here's how I would think about the profile. Mechanistically, it covers multiple cytokines, not a single cytokine, like an IL-17, for example. And I think HS is very different than other single cytokine conditions like IL-4/13-mediated AD or IL-23-mediated psoriasis, a broad anti-inflammatory profile here or effect rather is important.
Second, if you look at the data, not just the 12-week data, but out to 24 weeks on povorcitinib, what you see is, first, rapid pain relief. And what HS specialists want to do first is make people feel better, relieve pain, and then make them look better, that is to clear their skin. And I don't think anyone is going to produce data on povorcitinib that is better than what we have for povorcitinib rather. Next, you have skin clearance numbers that approach 50% to 60% at later time points, solid and very, very competitive. We have an HS90 -- HiSCR 90 and HiSCR 100 rates that hover around 20%.
And if you look even more closely at the data, 75% of people in the povo arm didn't have a flare and flare is the primary cause of pain. I believe that we have an opportunity with povorcitinib to capture patients at 2 critical inflection points. The first one is after an antibiotic before they need a biologic, or after a biologic when an IL-17 or TNF alpha is not enough. So there'll be 2 sources of utilization.
It could be the first oral HS treatment approved by the FDA. It may not be the only, but I don't see HS right now, given that the current treatments work about half the time as a winner-take-all type of category. This will be an oligopoly. There'll be multiple products available. And I think we do have an advantage in terms of our franchise and in terms of the data that we have. And so very meaningful opportunity, layer in an indication for PN, layer an indication for vitiligo, and this will become one of the larger products at Incyte over the next several years.
And how do you think about the opportunity to leverage your existing footprint around Opzelura to create commercial synergies between the 2 products?
Yes, it's a good question. There's no question there are strategic and operational and financial advantages to building franchises. And so we have infrastructure right now in place. We have both provider and payer capabilities, and we're, of course, wired into the dermatology community. And so we will be able to get synergies. There's revenue synergies. Sometimes they're a little hard to quantify.
And then, of course, there's cost synergies that you can create by having 1 product in -- 2 products in 1 therapeutic area. And so that is part of the overall strategy of the company. You see us doing that in hematology or in MPNs. We expect to have more than one product. The same is true in our solid tumor portfolio. If we're successful with TGF-beta and G12D, for example, we have a GI portfolio. And then, of course, in I&I, Michael, just like you mentioned, we'll have a 1-2 punch, which financially creates some advantages.
And Opzelura has now really become a quite meaningful revenue contributor to Incyte's top line. I think historically, Incyte spoke about a $1.5 billion peak sales opportunity in AD alone. And so perhaps talk a bit about how you're tracking towards that revenue type opportunity? And how are some of the near-term label expansion opportunities could drive near-term growth?
Yes, it's a good question. If you look at what we reported this quarter, third quarter in terms of growth, both U.S. and internationally, we were a high double-digit grower. I think that we posted a 30% growth versus prior year -- excuse me, 20% versus prior year. The business has the potential to grow on a 5-year compound annual basis of about 10%, which is essentially 2x in your business.
And that growth will come from both the United States and from Europe, where we're going to get an indication for moderate AD in the middle of 2026. That does not include indications for PN, which we could secure or for HS. And so Michael, your number of about $1.5 billion, just based on what we see today, and layering in additional indications, I think, is a very reasonable and good assumption.
Great. And then perhaps shifting over to Niktimvo, which is one of your newer products, which has been off to a very strong commercial launch in GVHD. And so yes, maybe provide a little bit more context on how the product has been used on the market in terms of practice since its launch, perhaps relative to other available therapies? And where do you see the approved indication to potentially peak in terms of sales?
Since I have a transplant specialist next to me, I'll start off with a couple of points and then turn it over to Pablo. First, by the end of the year, this product will be annualizing at almost $200 million. So it's off to a very good start. And that's mostly third line plus use, all right? We see some earlier line use, but mostly, it's being used third line plus. One of the most important findings so far during the launch is that 70% to 80% of people put on Niktimvo in roughly February of 2025 are still on Niktimvo.
And so we're seeing the persistency that you want to see, which speaks to the sustainability of the current growth trajectory, which if you look at Sanofi's Rezurock and Niktimvo, they look like they're on very similar curves. Now it's a new product launch and things can be unpredictable and fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter. But this is off to a solid start being used, like I said, third line plus. And the last comment I would make, and then I'll ask Pablo to comment is to turn this into a business that approaches, let's say, $1 billion as sort of an aspirational target, it will be important for us to demonstrate the utility of Niktimvo on top of steroid or on top of Jakafi.
I think the real goal of the transplanter is a steroid-free regimen, which is what you would get from taking Jakafi and Niktimvo. Those studies are ongoing. We're releasing data on the safety of Niktimvo on top of Jakafi. But ultimately, the efficacy and safety data is what we're going to need to secure those indications. And I think that's where we're at. So very pleased with the approach. In terms of where it's being used, I would just comment.
And not a lot to add there other than to say -- look, bone marrow transplant patients with chronic graft versus host disease are patients that are cured of their disease mostly, and they have this complication needs to be managed. And the management of that complication needs to happen with the fewest possible side effects.
So that's why we think Niktimvo when it gets tried initially on label, which is third line plus, it's going to keep moving up a little bit in the management of these patients because transplanters and patients want a steroid-free way to manage manifestations of chronic graft versus host disease. So that's key. I assume that as we release the data in combination with Jakafi, that combination is going to be used empirically by some transplanters as well. And it's probably going to be moved up a little bit in the management of the disease over time.
Great. Well, thanks, Pablo and Bill. Unfortunately, we have to end here. I really appreciate the time, and thanks for the opportunity.
Thank you.
Great. Thanks, Michael.
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Incyte — Guggenheim Securities 2nd Annual Healthcare Innovation Conference
Incyte — Guggenheim Securities 2nd Annual Healthcare Innovation Conference
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernbotschaft: Incyte stellt R&D‑Fokus und kommerzielle Hebel in den Vordergrund: beschleunigte Entwicklung zielgerichteter MPN‑Therapien (insbesondere 989 für CALR‑Mutationen), Ausbau eines potenziellen soliden Tumorportfolios (G12D/TGF‑β + PD‑1) sowie Ausbau der Dermatologie‑Franchise (Opzelura, povorcitinib).
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- MPN‑Strategie: 989 zeigte in Phase‑I Signale für Ersatz von Jakafi; Phase‑III‑Start geplant Mitte 2026 (ET und MF). Management sieht großes kommerzielles Potenzial (ET ~20.000 CALR‑Fälle ≙ ~\$5 Mrd., MF ~10.000 ≙ ~\$2,5 Mrd.).
- Onkologie: G12D‑ und TGF‑β‑plus‑PD‑1‑Programme wirkten auf ESMO ent‑riskiert; Phase‑III‑Planung abhängig von weiteren Daten und Behörden‑Interaktionen.
- R&D & Kapital: klare Priorisierung: weniger, hochwertigere Projekte; Investments/Deals werden nach strategischem Scorecard‑/IRR‑Rahmen bewertet; Option zur Übernahme von V617F‑Inhibitoren (Prelude) ergänzt Pipeline.
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Aktuelles: Konkrete Zeitpläne und Partnerschaften: Phase‑III‑Plan für 989 (Mitte 2026), Kooperation mit einem Device‑Anbieter (‚Enable‘) zur subkutanen Formulierung von 989 und optionale Übernahme externer V617F‑Programme; zusätzliche ASH‑Datenausblicke angekündigt.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- CEO‑Review: Nachfrage nach Erfüllung der Erwartungen seit CEO‑Antritt – Management betont bessere Einsicht in MPN‑Tiefe, starkes R&D‑Team und klare Prioritäten.
- Kapitalallokation: Fragen zur Balance zwischen M&A, interner F&E und Rückkäufen – Antwort: Scorecard/IRR‑gesteuert, keine „Buy‑through‑2029“‑Strategie.
- Kommerzelle Signale: Nachfrage zu Opzelura‑/Niktimvo‑Launch und povorcitinib‑Positionierung in HS; Management weist auf frühe Persistenzdaten, Indikationserweiterungen und Franchise‑Synergien hin.
📌 Bottom Line
- Fazit: Positiver, aber datengetriebener Ausblick: mehrere de‑riskende Ereignisse (ASH, Phase‑III‑Initiierung, SubQ‑Formulierung, V617F‑Programm) können signifikanten Wert freisetzen. Anleger sollten Execution‑Risiken (Phase‑III‑Ergebnisse, Zulassung, Kommerzialisierung) und die Fähigkeit zur fokussierten Kapitalallokation eng verfolgen.
Incyte — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Alexis Smith, Vice President and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Alexis.
Good morning, and welcome to Incyte's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, I encourage everyone to go to the Investors section of our website to find the press release, related financial tables and slides that follow today's discussion. On today's call, I'm joined by Bill Pablo and Tom, who will deliver our prepared remarks, Stephen, Dave, Matteo and Mohammed will also be available for Q&A. I would like to point out that we will be making forward-looking statements, which are based on our current expectations and beliefs. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially. I encourage you to consult the risk factors discussed in our SEC filings for additional detail.
I'll now hand the call over to Bill.
Thank you, Alexis, and good morning, everyone. On our last call, I told you I'd be taking a fresh look at the company with a focus on getting the core business right, our R&D priorities right and our cost base, right? This, of course, is a continuous process and one that is well underway and on track. In terms of the core business, my assessment has reinforced my confidence in the growth potential of our key products.
As we announced today, we had a strong quarter with total revenues of $1.37 billion and product sales of $1.15 billion. This represents a 20% and 19% increase, respectively, versus prior year. The fundamentals around Jakafi, Opzelura and our Hem-Onc business, Niktimvo and Monjuvi, namely remains strong. Our job right now is to keep it that way and to identify effective ways to optimize the promotional strategies and investment for these products to drive future growth.
Jakafi Q3 sales reached $791 million, a 7% increase with strong demand growth of 10% year-over-year. Growth was broad-based across all 3 indications. In MF Jakafi utilization continues to increase, and we are maintaining market share leadership despite competition. Growth in GBAD remains strong, supported by our portfolio strategy with Niktimvo, which is helping identify patients across multiple lines of therapy. MPV is our largest growth driver, fueled by compelling MAGIC PV data showing impressive thrombosis free survival. Based on this momentum, we're raising our full year guidance for Jakafi to a new range of $3.05 billion to $3.075 billion.
Opzelura growth was exceptional in the third quarter and continues to be a significant contributor to revenue. With $188 million in sales, a 35% increase versus prior year. Of this, $144 million in net sales came from the U.S., which represented a 21% increase versus prior year. The increase was based on strong prescription demand across both indications and more favorable formulary placement at the 3 top PBMs. In July, we reorganized the Opzelura sales force into 2 dedicated sales teams, 1 for AD and 1 for vitiligo, to ensure execution and sustained growth. The market for branded non-sterile topicals continues to expand at a 20% rate as more patients migrate off and away from topical corticosteroids. Given the efficacy of Opzelura in terms of rapid itch relief and skin clearance, our broad prescriber base and formulary coverage, we're well positioned to take advantage of this market dynamic.
Internationally, sales for Opzelura and Vitiligo totaled $44 million, representing a 117% increase from last year. France, Spain, Italy and Canada account for over 80% of our sales and growth and we plan to file an application for ruxolitinib cream in moderate AD in the EU by year-end with a potential approval in the second half of 2026.
Now in its third quarter post long Niktimvo continues to outperform expectations across all launch metrics. Sales in the third quarter totaled $46 million, an increase of 27% versus the second quarter. 90% BMT centers have adopted Niktimvo with all centers placing repeat orders year-to-date. Importantly, 80% of patients who started treatment in the first quarter of launch are still on therapy today. And we've captured 13% of the third line plus GVHD opportunity in just the first 9 months on the market. .
In line with expectations, Niktimvo was primarily being used in the fourth line with increasing preference and utilization in the third line. Feedback from BMT centers has been positive with real-world efficacy and safety being equally as impressive as the clinical data. Finally, we're actively studying Niktimvo in combination with ruxolitinib and steroids in earlier line settings. Our combination study with Jakafi is designed to enable a steroid-free regimen in GVHD, which could shift the standard of care. And our combination study with steroids in the frontline setting has the potential to deliver benchmark efficacy and steroid tapering. This franchise strategy has the potential to significantly increase our addressable market and strengthen our leadership position in GVHD.
Our broader hematology and oncology portfolio also performed well this quarter. Sales from Monjuvi and follicular lymphoma and [indiscernible] both launched this year saw strong growth and contributed to our raised guidance. These products will be incremental contributors to our portfolio and collectively can deliver meaningful sales growth over the next several years.
We have 3 important new product launches next year, ruxolitinib XR, Opzelura-AD in Europe and povorcitinib and HS. I've completed a thorough review of the launch plans and believe these products have the potential to contribute significantly to Insight's future growth. Strategically, ruxolitinib XR upon approval offers the same therapeutic benefits of Jakafi and a more convenient once-daily dosing regimen. The stability data are on track to be submitted to the FDA before end of the year with an anticipated launch in mid 2026.
As it relates to Opzelura-AD, as mentioned, we plan to submit our application in the EU with an anticipated launch next year, assuming approval, Opzelura has the potential to contribute meaningfully to future sales in the EU 4 and Canada and to overall growth given its clinical and economic value proposition. With the moderate ADD indication in Europe, we could potentially increase our international topical business by 2x to 3x over the next several years. And finally, povorcitinib could be the first oral option for patients with HS which is perhaps the most challenging disease in dermatology. It's a multi-cytokine disease, involving many pathways, making treatment more complex and results more variable, a treat option like povarcitinib, which has shown rapid pain relief and skin clearance scores of over 50% will be very marketable.
We believe there's a substantial opportunity in HS, which is the first step for Pova -- our ongoing developments in PN and Vitiligo will come into focus next year, and if positive, further strengthened the position of Povo in our derm portfolio. Together with Opzelura, we could provide a topical to oral offering for patients across HS, Vitiligo and PN. Launch activities for each product remain on schedule, including preparations for the sales force, payer engagement and medical education initiatives, will share more details in early 2026.
Turning to R&D. Our ongoing pipeline review is providing us with absolute clarity about which high-value programs are core to future growth and have the greatest potential to create value and outsized returns. We want to configure a balanced pipeline that is not consumed by either safe, low-value projects or moonshots. We've set clear go/no go criteria for moving key projects forward. We will invest and take calculated risks in key programs rather than thinly spreading investments across many programs. In other words, fewer smarter investments versus diffused spending will fund what matters and importantly, watch out for false positives and negatives.
As it relates to our developing pipeline, the first call on capital is HemOnc, this is central identity of the company and an area where we have differentiated knowledge and capabilities and an asymmetrical advantage. This includes targeted therapies for MPNs, including MCLR617and our MCLR bispecific and discovery programs. We have a window of opportunity here to trigger an innovation-based shift in MPNs from nonspecific symptomatic therapies like Jakafi and HU to targeted mutation-specific therapies, like 989.
Next steps for 989 and 617 will be shared later this year and next year. In terms of our solid tumor program, the cornerstone of our cancer strategy is novel biological pathways, high-incidence cancers with substantial medical need that missed the IO revolution, and immunotherapies and targeted therapies that can be used frontline in combination with standard of care regimens. As you know, we have 3 program early development, KRASG12D for pancreatic cancer TGF-beta by PD-1 bispecific for MSS CRC and CDK2 for ovarian cancer. Over the next several months, we will collect more data on these programs in terms of response rates, duration of response and safety, particularly in combination with standard of care. We'll move forward without delay providing our data continue to be objectively competitive, and we can be early to market and defend our position long term. Now in terms of our operating expenses and overall cost structure, we're conducting a review of the entire business, which focuses on prioritization and data-driven trade-off decisions.
Our objective is to manage costs but not underfund critical initiatives and compromise growth prospects. We'll strike the right balance between financial discipline and long-term strategic investments. which can be achieved by controlling costs in low-value areas to free up capital either for reinvestment in high-value opportunities or to improve margins. Our framework for the 2026 budget and beyond will be based on the following: First, define and ring fence our strategic growth drivers. This means the new product launches that I touched on as well as key R&D projects, which we have earmarked as nonnegotiable fully funded programs. Once we protect the growth drivers, we're looking to control costs in areas that add less or minimal strategic value. From there, the savings we've identified and achieved will either be reallocated or banked. This will be a continuous process not a one-and-done exercise, it's a mindset as our business evolves, so will our resource allocation.
Finally, business development. BD works when you have strong strategic leadership, high throughput and a framework for rapidly triaging opportunities and making decisions, which requires a skilled search and evaluation team and a deep network. To be successful, we need to operate inside the loop in our focus areas. Accordingly, Dave Gardner joined Incyte as Chief Strategy Officer in September, and one of his priorities is to build out this capability. He will play a central role in developing our long-term growth strategy and ensuring external business development opportunities and internal portfolio decisions are strategically sound and financially compelling. We will share more details about our strategic review early next year.
Now I'd like to turn the call over to Pablo.
Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. As shown on Slide 14, our pipeline is strategically focused with numerous high-impact programs currently in development. Over the past few months, we have conducted a thorough pipeline review to ensure we're concentrating our efforts and resources on the projects that are essential to the future growth of the company. As Bill mentioned, this process was guided by a clear set of go no-go criteria, enabling us to make strategic decisions about which programs to advance.
As a result, we have decided to pause or stop several preclinical and early clinical stage programs, including INCA-34460, our anti-CD122 program, INCB57643, our BET inhibitor program and the development of Povorcitinib in chronic spontaneous urticaria. By continuing to streamline our pipeline, we will be able to accelerate and prioritize the programs with the greatest potential impact to patients and to drive future growth.
Now I'd like to focus on key updates from the quarter, highlighting recent advancements with Povorcitinib and our solid tumor franchise. I will also discuss expected for the remainder of 2025 from our mutant color antibody program. For Povorcitinib, last month, we presented longer-term data in Hidradenitis Suppurativa at the European Academy of Dermatology and Vinerology Congress, which further reinforced the differentiated profile of Povorcitinib. The 24-week data demonstrated deep and sustained improvements across key clinical endpoints, including HiSCR50, 75, 90 and 100, resolution of draining tunnels and effective reduction in flares.
Povorcitinib also showed a rapid and robust reduction in skin pain, with 62% to 70% of patients reporting mild or no pain by week 24. [indiscernible] experience in the management of HS emphasize that their primary focus when they treat patients with HS is on 2 elements, help patients feel better by addressing the pain related to HS and to effectively control flares. The data percentage show that Povorcitinib provides rapid and sustained pain relief and reduces the frequency of flares. This positive Phase III results demonstrate the potential of Povorcitinib to address the significant medical needs of the more than 300,000 people living with moderate to severe HS, offering a novel, effective and convenient oral treatment option for this underserved patient population.
Moving to Slide 16 and the near-term opportunities for Povorcitinib. As you know, HS is the most advanced programs, and we're on track with our regulatory submission at the end of the year in the EU and early 2026 in the U.S. with potential approvals and launches in late 2026 early 2027. In addition to HS, we're starting Povorcitinib in 3 other indications, underscoring its potential to become a major growth driver for the company. Povorcitinib is being evaluated in Phase III programs in vitiligo and prurigo nodularis as well as a Phase II proof-of-concept study in asthma. We anticipate pivotal data readouts for vitiligo and PN in 2026 with a goal of potential initial regulatory approvals in 2027, 2028.
Next, I would like to highlight 2 recent updates from our solid tumor portfolio, beginning with our TGF-beta by PD-1 bispecific antibody program. This month, at the European Society of Medical Oncology Annual Meeting we presented initial Phase I data for INCA-33890, as I'll refer to moving forward, 890, our first-in-class TGFßR2xPD-1 bispecific antibody in patients with solid tumors. This is an inside discover compound and one that is truly differentiated from other TGF-beta and PD-1 approaches. The Phase I trial evaluated 89 [indiscernible] solid tumors with a focus on microsatellite stable or MSS colorectal cancer patients. 890 demonstrated durable single-agent anti-tumor activity and a manageable safety profile in fully pretreated MSS colorectal cancer patients, a population with limited treatment options and where anti-PD-1 PD-L1 antibodies have historically produced response rates from 0% to 2%.
In patients with MSS colorectal, 890 achieved an overall response rate of 15% and most notably, responses were observed in patients with and without liver metastases. The majority of treatment-related adverse events were low grade with no dose-limiting toxicities reported. We also completed dose escalation of 890 in combinations of 4 cohorts. FOLFOX for bevacizumab, FOLFIRI plus bevacizumab, bevacizumab and cetuximab. No evidence of additive toxicity has been observed in any of the combination cohorts and dose expansion is ongoing. This initial results provide a strong rationale for advancing 890 into a registrational program.
We're planning to start a pivotal Phase III trial evaluating 890 in combination with standard of care chemotherapy in bevacizumab in first-line MSS colorectal cancer patients in 2026.
Turning to our KRASG12D program on Slide 18. We recently presented encouraging clinical data from the Phase I trial of INCB-161734 or [indiscernible] to moving forward 734 and in heavily pretreated patients with advanced or metastatic solid tumors harboring the KRASG12D mutation, including pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, among others. Results demonstrated a manageable safety profile with no dose-limited toxicities observed and predominantly Grade 1 treatment-related adverse events.
Importantly, in pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients 734 showed promising antitumor activity with an objective response rate of 34% disease control rate of 86% of the dose of 1,200 milligrams. These results are particularly notable given that only 8 of the patients were treated in the second-line setting.
To summarize, both our [indiscernible] by PD-1 and our KRASG12D program represents significant opportunities to address large patient populations with high medical need, specifically MSS colorectal cancer and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. As Bill noted, our strategy in both cancers will be to win and frontline in combination with standard of care. 890, we have demonstrated durable single-agent activity in heavily pretreated MSS colorectal cancer patients, including those with liver metastases and a favorable safety profile and combinability for first-line standard of care regimens. As previously mentioned, we're planning to initiate a Phase III study in first-line MSS colorectal in 2026.
Similarly, 734 has shown promising anti-tumor activity and manageable safety profile in advanced solid tumors with particularly encouraging results in PDAC. We'll share more updates on this program next year.
Now to Slide 20. 2025 has been a pivotal year for Incyte, highlighted by multiple new product launches, pivotal trial readouts, Phase III study initiations and proof-of-concept results. These accomplishments reflect the solid progress we've made so far towards the milestones we established at the beginning of the year. As we look at the remainder of the year, we plan to share data for the first time on 989, our mutant color antibody in patients with myelofibrosis. We are evaluating 989 in a broad population of patients with MF. There are 3 actively enrolling cohorts. First, intermediate to high-risk patients who are intolerant, ineligible or resistant to a JAK inhibitor. This cohort is evaluating 989 as a monotherapy. Second, intermediate to high-risk patients who are on ruxolitinib, but experienced a suboptimal spleen response after these 12 weeks of treatment. In this cohort, we are evaluating adding 989 to ruxolitinib.
And finally, we're enrolling patients with intermediate to high-risk treatment-naive MF in a cohort evaluating 989 compared to a combination of 989 and ruxolitinib. This will allow us to see how 989 performs as a monotherapy and in combination with ruxolitinib in treatment-naive patients. Our update later this year will include early data from the first 2 cohorts. For the monotherapy cohort, we plan to share data from roughly 50 patients, approximately two-thirds of them will have more than 24 weeks of follow-up. Additionally, data will be presented for the combination cohort on at least 15 suboptimal responders to ruxolitinib. More than half of these patients will have a minimum of 24 weeks of follow-up.
Importantly, the update will include response data used in traditional endpoints as VR25, SBR35, TSS50 and anemia and molecular endpoints like effects on [indiscernible] blood, CD34 mutant-CALR cells in peripheral blood [indiscernible] and mutant color positive megacarocytes in the bone marrow. Additionally, we'll provide an [indiscernible] treated patients with essential thrombocytemia as a follow-up to the encouraging results presented earlier this year.
As you'll recall from EHA presentation, 989 demonstrated the rapid and sustained normalization of platelet counts and was well tolerated with only 1 patient discontinuing due to an adverse event. We look forward to sharing updates on the remaining 2025 milestones and to provide further visibility into our 2026 catalyst as we continue to advance our pipeline.
With that, I'll turn it over to Tom for a financial update on the quarter.
Thanks, Pablo. As Bill mentioned earlier, our total revenues and product revenues were $1.37 billion and $1.15 billion, respectively, increasing 20% and 19% from the prior year. Our total GAAP R&D expenses were $507 million in the third quarter. Excluding onetime expenses in the prior year, R&D expenses increased 7% year-over-year, driven by continued investment in our late-stage development assets.
Moving to SG&A. Total GAAP SG&A expenses were $329 million in the third quarter, increasing 6% year-over-year, primarily driven by international marketing activities to support product launches. Ongoing operating expenses in the third quarter increased 8% year-over-year compared to an 18% increase in ongoing revenues during the same period, leading to a continued increase in operating leverage and margins. Based on the growth of our product portfolio, we raised 2025 full year net product revenue guidance to $4.23 billion to $4.32 billion. We maintained our prior OpEx guidance of $3.25 billion to $3.31 billion, which reflects combined R&D and SG&A GAAP expenses.
I'll now turn the call over to Bill.
Thanks, Tom. That concludes our prepared remarks. Please open the line for Q&A. .
[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is coming from Tazeen from Bank of America.
2. Question Answer
I wanted to focus on the upcoming mCALR data, you've given us a good preview of how many patients worth of data to expect. I think most people are going to be focused on the monotherapy arm. How important is that going to be for people to believe that you have convinced efficacy as it stands alone because there could potentially be the view that it could be synergistic with when added to Jakafi. So -- can you maybe level set for us what level of efficacy you're going to think is going to be convincing enough to move it forward even if it's in combination with Jakafi.
Thanks, Tazeen. I'll turn it over to Pablo.
Thank you for the question. So I think it's important to remember a couple of things about our mutant-CALR antibody program. The first is -- this is the very first targeted therapy for patients with MPNs. And we're talking about MF, broadly speaking, for myeloproliferative neoplasms, both MF and ET in this case, this is the first truly targeted therapy as opposed to nonspecific therapies in the past, including ruxolitinib that were mostly symptomatic improvements with very little effect on disease modification. .
Now you're asking specifically about the update at ASH, I think for us to demonstrate that there is single-agent activity with 989. That's why the update will include a large number of patients, as I mentioned, 50 patients with somewhat significant follow-up to really prove convincingly that 989 has single-agent activity. The focus will be no [Technical Difficulty] improvement anemia but also a set of translational endpoints, which we think are really important to confirm our view that this new medication has potential disease-modifying effects. So in terms of benchmarks around efficacy in previously treated patients with JAK inhibitors, I think the best benchmark we have recently is momelotinib. As you know, momelotinib has an SVR35 or between in different studies with the TSS50 improvements in the 25% to 26%. Those are some reasonable benchmarks in the second-line setting to look at but it's very important for us to confirm the single-agent activity of 989 in [indiscernible] patients, Tazeen.
Tazeen, thanks for the question.
Next question today is coming from Andrew Berens from Leerink Partners.
And congratulations on the execution during the quarter. I was wondering if you could give some more color on the decision to terminate the [indiscernible] program and CSU following your announcement in April that is Phase II is successful. Are we going to see the data at a medical meeting as you previously guided?
Andy, I will start off and turn over to Pablo [Audio Gap] was a good Phase II program. And the factors that went into the decision included differentiation, compete intensity, timing to market and market potential among other factors. And Pablo, do you want to just comment on the release of the data. .
Certainly, we are -- we haven't decided with investigators whether to release the data, but we'll almost certainly do that at some future conference, Andy. The one other point I would add to Bill's point is that in addition to those factors, the regulatory bar in CSU, we discussed with FDA and the requirements for a potential pivotal program in CSU were pretty onerous, and we decided we have a priority to focus on.
Okay. And then if I could, just a question on the PD-1 TGF beta.
[Audio Gap] by PD-1 program in combination with chemotherapy first-line colorectal is made. We're moving forward in that direction. In parallel, that data at some point next year, Andy, but those 2 things are happening in parallel. We think speed is of the essence here in executing this Phase III trial. So we're advancing this rapidly, and we'll generate the data and release at some point. .
Next question today is coming from Stephen Willey from Stifel.
Just 2 quick ones for me. So on 989 was just wondering if you could give a little bit of color around what we should expect to see within the abstract publication next week just relative to the presentation itself. And then just a quick one on Niktimvo. Curious how you're thinking about Sanofi's failed frontline trial with rezuroc steroids in terms of read-through to the ongoing Phase III trial with Niktimvo and just whether you think that might say anything about the biology of the disease being different in a newly diagnosed patient.
Yes. Thanks for the question, Steve. I'm going to turn the second question about Niktimvo over to Steven Stein and then Pablo will grab the first question.
Yes, Steve, thanks for the question. In terms of first-line graft versus host disease in combination with steroids, there's really a little bit of controversy around how you measure the primary endpoint and event-free survival. And there's some nuances there on what you call events. So we think our definition is robust and is powered to adequately show the difference we need to beat steroids. And as Bill said in his prepared remarks, to also show something doctors very much desire steroid withdrawal as rapidly as possible to avert side effects. But you're right in the sense that it's, it shows the difficulty in the arena of beating steroids, which are active, but we really think it's around the definition of the endpoint, and we -- our endpoint is robust and meets the needs for our program, and we're confident about it.
Thanks, Stephen. The only other thing I would add, Steve, here is we, fortunately, with Niktimvo, have 2 shots on goal. We have a combination study with steroids and with Jakafi. Obviously, these are calculated risks -- you get a combination study with Jakafi that's positive and you're going 2x the addressable population and then you have a steroid-free regimen. Obviously, we want both these programs to work 1 of 2 work, it could change the trajectory of Niktimvo fairly significantly.
Pablo, you want to address the first question?
Certainly, with 989, I think it's important to focus on the presentation we'll have before the end of the year. That's a later data cut. It's going to have more patients is going to have longer follow-up. So I realize that the abstracts will be released. But I would ask you to wait for the update we'll provide before the end of the year and focus on that because it's more substantial. And particularly, a follow-up is substantially there. .
Next question today is coming from Jay Olson from Oppenheimer.
Congrats on the quarter, can you describe the rationale behind terminating the BET inhibitor program with that mostly related to your strategic focus on targeted therapies like mCALR and myelofibrosis. And as a follow-up to that question, since the BET inhibitor was on track to begin registrational studies, how soon can you move mCALR into registrational studies?
Jay, thanks for the questions. I'll take the first part and then turn it over to Pablo. As it relates to the BET inhibitor, the risk-benefit calculus, as you know, for BET inhibitors right now is complex, differentiating class-wide risks from molecule specific ones is challenging. And so in general, we're prioritizing programs with a higher PTRS and a clearer path to market. And that was fundamentally why we stopped the BET inhibitor program, and then I'll let Pablo comment further.
So I don't have anything to add into the reasons for terminating that program. In terms of the CALR antibody program, Jay, the goal is to start 1 or more pivotal trials in 2026 as we mentioned during our EHA update in ET, ET will likely be the first pivotal trial to start, and that should start at some point in the first half of the year. In parallel with that, we are having regulatory interactions and continue to review the data in order to decide the right trials and the timing for implementing Phase III trials for patients with myelofibrosis that most likely start at some point in the second half of 2026. I think that one thing that I would like to emphasize is the terminus of the BET program in no way reduces ambition in MPNs. As I mentioned earlier this year, our goal by the end of the decade is to have a solution for every single patient with a myeloproliferative neoplasms. We're building a pipeline of targeted therapies to address that need, and we intend to continue to advance those programs.
Next question today is coming from James Shin from Deutsche Bank.
First one is for Pablo. Pablo, appreciate 989 as a targeted therapy for MPNs. But can you say whether or not we should expect SCR, TSS and anemia burden, we on the kinetics front to look similar to ruxs and follow-up for Bill, Jack and sees [indiscernible] 1 and 2 high bar for frontline myelofibrosis. So from a timing, financial and regulatory perspective, can you share insights progress on gaining certainty for 989 frontline MS [indiscernible]. And will that development path align with Jakafi's LOE?
Yes. All right, Pablo, you can take the first part of the question.
So thank you for the question. It is very important for us to address your question directly, it's very important for us to demonstrate that 989 has an effect on clinical endpoints in myelofibrosis. That's why the presentation will include SVR25, SVR35, TSS50 effect and effects in anemia. We realize those are -- a combination of those are the approval of endpoints in MF and showing efficacy in those same points is critical for this program. So those will be part of the update we provide before the end of the year. Let me pass it back to Bill.
Yes. And as it relates to both 989 in ET and MMF, and how we think about the business post 2029 -- filling a revenue gap is not what 989 does. What 989 has built a long duration revenue and cash flow stream well into the next decade. So we don't see the end of the road. And here's how I think about second line, first line and Pablo commented on this. There are targeted treatments available in many other cancers, that is not true in MPNs. And so for hematologists, there is intrinsic appeal to the first targeted therapy. And when you take a look at ET, hydroxyurea is the standard of care. It's the most widely cytoreductive agent in ET, but it achieves only a partial response, not a complete response in most patients. And there's 3 consequence to that.
The first one is residual symptoms, not as significant as it is in MF, but residual symptoms. The second consequence is residual thrombotic risk. And the third consequence is residual transformation risk. 989 solves the problems that HU created and even a second-line single-agent study or with those data I expect that 989 will reshape the use of hydroxyurea where patients transition therapy rapidly because 989 is targeting disease-causing cells, it's better tolerated. For example, HUs has got 7 warnings and precautions, and it's easier to dose.
The market for ET are $5 billion, ET mCALR patients. Roughly half of them are resistant or intolerant to therapy. And so I think there's a glide path to growth in ET with first study. And then as it relates to MF, it's, of course, a completely different type of MPN. The risk of transformation to leukemia is real. It's more aggressive, it's more symptomatic. As effective as Jakafi is, as you know, the SVR35 is between 30% and 40%, right? Symptoms are in the mid-50s. Everybody on Jakafi progresses. And so even in a second-line setting, there is going to be just like an ET a move to either add 989, we'll have to, of course, produce that data or use at 989 after Jakafi. And I think that the opportunity in both MF and ET is fairly significant. And what we're looking to is build the business well into the next decade. If we start the studies in the middle of '26, give or take, we should be getting out some time in that '29, '30 period.
Next question today is coming from Salveen Richter from Goldman Sachs.
You've highlighted that VAS as an important part of the MLR story in terms of the MPN story in terms of the drug being functional cure. And just remind us what you want to see on VAS reduction and level set us on how well understood the old correlation is between VAS and clinical outcomes. And just a second question here, Bill, on your -- you've highlighted your focus on managing operating expenses and streamlining the company. How are you thinking about the evolution of the company's target margin profile over the next few years and also through the Jakafi LOE.
Great. I'll turn the first question, Salveen, about molecular response over to Pablo, and then I'll address your question about OpEx after that.
Thank you for the question, Salveen. So we have 3 -- and it's important to remember 3 molecular endpoints that we're going to report data on before the end of the year. One is VAF in whole blood. The other one is 334 positive mutant-CALR collar cells in peripheral buenonuclear cells. And the third is malignant megacities for mutant color makers in the bone marrow. And the reason why emphasizing those 3 because VA is in a way, a lagging indicator of what's happening to bone marrow, which is what truly matters. The disease originates in the bone marrow and reducing malignant megacities in the bone marrow, which is something we showed for ET EHA this year is the critical disease-modifying effect. That then will translate into reduction of CD34-positmutant color pounder cells in peripheral blood and that, in turn, over time, will be reflected in a reduction in VAS. So I think I would emphasize that it's important to look at all 3 components of the transaction endpoints, and we'll talk about all 3 before the end of the year. In terms of correlations, Look, we know that have VAF is a bad thing, and we've shown some data in IT that patients with lower VAF slightly higher BA reductions over time have better hematologic responses in ET. That data are important. We still believe that more likely than not, initial approvals for 989 will be based fundamentally on clinical endpoints, traditional clinical endpoints, a combination of the endpoints that we know, which are spleen, symptoms and anemia, and that's the way we're building this pivotal trials for next year. I'll pass it back to Bill. .
Yes. Thanks, Pablo. And as it relates to OpEx, Salveen, it's a good question. I spent a lot of time thinking about it. And as you implied in your question, we have to take a multiyear view of the budget. And I'm not necessarily hard coding for OpEx as a percentage of R&D as a percentage of sales. But I do expect that the quantum of at least spending growth or the percentage is going to come down and I expect it to come down because of an increase in sales and leverage. Here's what I will say, every R&D dollar and every SG&A dollar has to serve a business strategy, and budgeting is about distinguishing the high-value projects, as you know, from the low-value projects. Or another way to put it is good cost from some from bad costs.
What we're really solving for, though, is creating the steepest growth curve possible post '29 and a long duration revenue and cash flow stream. We will streamline costs where possible, but not underfund critical initiatives and compromise growth. And that is -- those are the principles as I think about OpEx, and I do expect our margins to improve over time in part due to increasing sales and good cost control. Thanks for the question.
The next question today is coming from Peter Lawson from Barclays.
[indiscernible], kind of as a stable is the trajectory on that growth? It's pretty impressive this quarter. And I wonder if you could also talk around the profitability of that franchise.
Peter, could you just repeat the question? It was a little hard to hear.
Yes Sorry. Tim -- if you could talk through the sustainability of the trajectory. It was really impressive this quarter. And if you could talk through the profitability as well.
Yes. I'll start off. And if Mohammad, who runs that business has any additional comments he can contribute to. You're right, it's off to a very, very good start. We're annualizing almost at $200 million a year. I think the important -- the important point about the launch right now is you have virtually every BMT center in the United States using and purchasing Niktimvo, which I think is very, very encouraging. All the feedback we've got from planners is very, very positive.
As you know, we're in the third, fourth quarter of a launch and launches early on can be unpredictable from quarter-to-quarter. All I can tell you is I think the growth trajectory of this is solid right now. If you look at the reservoir curve when it launched, we're virtually right on top of it. That product is -- they had a tough quarter, but it's roughly a $500 million business in terms so I think the prospects for growth next year are solid, we'll, of course, share guidance in early 2026. But I don't see any red flags right now other than launches can be a little bit unpredictable and uncertain, but I like the way it looks.
The next comment I would make as it relates to profitability, one of the nice things about this product is a specialty product. And we're not covering 10,000, 20,000, 30,000 physicians or several thousand hospitals. We have a very targeted audience of BMT centers across the United States. And so when you look at the margin profile of a product like this, it's very healthy. That's what I can tell you about profitability. I wish more of them were as profitable as Niktimvo.
Mohamed, do you have anything you want to add?
B
Yes. Thanks, Bill. Maybe just to complement and give you some color on the sustainability of the growth. As Bill mentioned, a really broad penetration with 90% of transplant centers picking up Niktimvo but we're seeing all of them have repeat orders year-to-date, which speaks not only to the trial utilization, but the repeat utilization within these accounts and the feedback continues to be positive.
Another point on the sustainability of the trajectory is in line with our expectations. Most of the utilization today is happening in the fourth line, but we're seeing a lot more preference and increasing preference in the third lien setting, which gives us a lot of headroom left to go? And maybe one last point on the sustainability. Our goal that we communicated on the last call was to have about 1,000 active patients on therapy by the end of the year. Through the first 9 months, we have about 800 or so patients, well on our way to that 1,000 patient goal by the end of the year, and that continues to be promising as well. And then from a contribution margin, maybe just the last note is this contribution margin for the Niktimvo P&L is one of the higher in our portfolios, and we expect it to continue to be such given the level of focus that we have on the product and the level of focus from a commercial execution.
Thanks, Mohamad. Thanks for the question, Peter.
Your next question is coming from Evan Seigerman from BMO Capital Markets.
Great to see a lot of you at ESMO. So I think we'd all agree that MLR is a very critical juncture for Incyte, but I want to take it out of the picture for a second. So can you walk me through how the current pipeline needs to mature to drive growth through the Jakafi LOE? And then what type of business development, you're not going to be specific, but would you have to do to help also supplement that growth. Essentially, I want to understand what Insight looks like with and without MCLR by the end of the trade.
Thanks for the question, Evan. Yes, and it was nice to see at ESMO 2. Here's how I would look at the pipeline. We're focused on 7 drivers, 7 projects that I think have the potential to create very meaningful value. And not all of them have to work -- not all of them will work. We're not going to be perfect. But we have Povorcitinib, which is a 3-indication product we can build a JAK anchored franchise in dermatology where we have differentiated knowledge and capabilities and a very solid data set.
The second project is 989, and I can't take it out of the picture, Evan, okay? That's an important project. We have 617, which is still in early stage, a little bit more opaque, but is that -- as we derisk that asset, that could be as big or bigger than 989 in MPNs because it's covering a mutation that's much more frequent. In fact, it could be 2x a size of 989. Then we have 3 solid tumor programs, which we derisked at ESMO. We still have more data to collect. You have G12 deep pancreatic cancer, TGF-PD-1 for CRC and CDK2 for ovarian cancer. What I would say here is that we're systematically and deliberately and at least up until ESMO, quietly building a high-impact oncology portfolio. There is a lot of substrate there. I don't expect all of these necessarily to work, all right? But if 1 or 2 of those hit, they could be very, very meaningful.
As we talked about at the start of the call, novel compounds against novel biological targets in cancers that have missed the IO revolution, where there's significant medical need, and we're positioning all 3 compounds frontline in combination with standard of care chemo. And then the seventh project that I focus on is Niktimvo. And as Mohamed talked about, we're off to a good start, and there was a question about sustainability, we have 2 combination trials in place. If one of those combination trials hit, and we're 1 for 2, we move this into the second line. If it's the combination trial with Jakafi, we have a nonsteroid regimen and you could 2x the value of that business.
And so when you think about the flow across all of our 3 verticals, I&I, hematology and oncology, there's some real substrate there, and we don't need to be perfect. We just need 2 or 3 of these out of the 7 to hit, and we'll build a business that's bigger than the one that we have post 2029. Thanks for the question.
Next question today is coming from Derik Archila from Wells Fargo.
Just curious for 989 pivotal trials in MF and ET expected next year. Will these be with IV with the on-body pump to ends? And then just a quick follow-up. -- in terms of a potential XR launch and kind of the commentary around the launch plans in the prepared remarks, I guess how do you plan to position with payers? And I guess what's your base case in terms of the amount of shares you can convert from Jakafi pre-generics.
Yes, good question. I will make a few comments about Enable XR and then ask Pablo and Mohammad. First, we're really pleased to strike a partnership with Enable. They specialize and high-volume subcutaneous administration with products with a range of 5 mL o 25 mL. We also like the device because it's at home, self-administered comfort, the efficiency of their manufacturing operation. And I think it's a high-quality company. They're expanding their manufacturing site, which is an FDA-approved manufacturing site and they have commercial devices, I think, in roughly 25 countries and about 8,000 units. And so this is a high-quality company. Pablo can talk more about the program. As it relates to -- let's just -- Pablo, why don't you speak and then we'll go to XR.
So in terms of the plant to incorporating infuse into the pivotal trials in MPNs ET is pretty far along. We've showed an update at EHA a few months ago on the data, the data has continued to mature. We have already initiated regulatory interactions around that -- so we're probably going to be ready to start pivotal trial in ET before we're ready to deploy the infused device. For MF, the goal is to, as quickly as possible, make the infused device available and ready to go so we can start those studies with the subcu administration. However, I can be firm at this point. We need a little bit more time to really figure out the timing for the implementation of this. But that would be our goal for MF.
Mohamed, do you want to talk about XR?
Yes, if I can put that in frame for us real quick, Derek. Jakafi XR, as you know, represents a great addition to the portfolio expected to launch in the middle part of 2026. And HCPs and patients now are going to have a convenient once-daily formulation of a brand that they know and trust. We expect about 15% to 30% conversion from the IR by 2028, and with a slower erosion curve than IR, XR can be a solid incremental contributor to top line sales through 2030 and beyond. And as you mentioned, look, our launch strategy is focused on securing quick formulary access accelerating HCP adoption and patient preference to maximize that uptick in the short-term for the long-term value. And if I can just point to our ability to launch Niktimvo, FL in Monjuvi, and [indiscernible] SCAC, I'm just proud of our team's ability to execute on these launches, and I think XR won't be any different.
Next question today is coming from Ash Verma from UBS.
So yes, a lot of focus on 989. Maybe just like looking a Slide 20, a few different settings that you are exploring in ET and MF, but just wanted to at this point, are you able to pursue first line or naive patients in registrational studies? And then secondly, on the formulation, like where are you able to get the volume down to like how many mL? And is this something that can be a home subcu injection and not just an on-body formulation?
Thanks, Ash. Paul, do you want to take that?
So, thank you for the question. So I think the first part was about first-line MF. And the answer is -- we fully intend to develop 989 for first-line patients with myelofibrosis. That's why we're running the combination with ruxolitinib on treatment-naive patients. That work is ongoing. We're not disclosed results on that before the end of this year, but I'm confident that we will find a path there. We have very clear preclinical data showing synergy between 989 and ruxolitinib in the right models of MF. So I'm confident that we will find a path there.
In terms of the subcu, our goal is to have a device that patients can use at home for self-administration of 989 subcutaneously. That's the goal. That's why we put in place a collaboration with Enable, and we think we're going to find a path to that in 2026.
Next question today is come from Ren Benjamin from Citizens.
Congratulations on a great quarter. I guess just a follow-up with rux XR. There was a strategy we back when about combining it with a pipeline product to help kind of fight this LOE? Are you looking at any potential combinations to move this forward with either the pipeline or in-licensing a product and saving off this erosion curve for us. And as a follow-up, you're starting this registrational program with a I'm kind of curious as you think about how large the study is, the delta that you need to show to have a positive study, how you come to the calculus given the kind of limited data that you have so far?
Bren, thanks for the question. I'll take the first 1 and turn the second 1 over to Pablo. Right now, our focus for XR is launching it for the Jakafi indications. We're not working on any combinations in development and we don't plan to right now. I know that there was a history there, but we're just focused on the once a day and preserving some portion of that revenue stream and getting a more convenient dosing regimen out. .
As it relates to your second question, I'll turn it over to actually Steven Stein.
And thanks for the question. So it's first-line microsite colorectal cancer. The combination will be advanced in there, as we alluded to at ESMO is with FOLFOX and BEV that's used across the board, independent of a mutant versus wild type, independent of left or right sided tumor. The enabling safety work has already progressed well and will continue there's benchmarks available both for progression-free survival as well as overall survival. The primary endpoint, as we alluded to at ASH, will be PFS because OS takes a little longer to get there. And the size will put up when we launch the study. But you can estimate it's probably north of 500 and will be well powered to show the PFS advantage we want.
Your next question today is coming from Jessica Fye from JPMorgan.
I had a couple more on 989. So I guess for Pablo, recognizing that we won't have frontline data for 989 by year-end, can you talk about what elements of these data in post-Jakafi patients and Jakafi optimal responders could make us come away confident that 989 could be successful in the front line? And I guess, specifically for that combo data set, I know it's smaller, but what are you going to be looking for as proof points that 989 is offering a clear clinical benefit on top of Jakafi in the absence of a control arm I guess, is there like a certain magnitude of change from baseline on those key measures that you think would exclude any natural variability in the endpoints over time, had the patients just remained on their Jakafi monotherapy? And then I have a follow-up.
Thanks, Jess. So I think that the element -- look like with any early development program or stage development program, I think looking at the totality of the emerging evidence is important. So -- the first part here is obviously looking at the safety profile. We showed that in ET earlier this year. We'll show it in MF before the end of this year. And because of exclusively targeted [indiscernible] 989, we think that the safety profile, the really excellent profit that we've shown so far is a key element for the future development. .
So the second part is obviously efficacy. The 2 components, as I mentioned earlier, are obviously, the classic clinical endpoints, we need to see as monotherapy in patients who are resistant intolerant or [indiscernible] Jakafi we need to see clear evidence of impact on clinical endpoints, spleen reduction, improvement in symptoms and EMA improvements in addition to translational endpoints. Now when you look at the add-on cohort that we're going to show some data I think it's important to remember that those are the hardest patients to treat. Those are patients that did not respond to Jakafi in an ideal way despite a minimum 2 weeks of treatment and being 8 weeks on a stable dose. So any improvement on classic endpoints in those patients, we think, is highly meaningful.
When you look at the -- what's available in second-line MF, the benchmarks are pretty low, as I mentioned earlier, between 9% and 20% for 335, for example. So in our view, when you combine the monotherapy data in second line, together with the ability to combine 989 with Jakafi, together with the safety profile, I think it's very easy to put a story together that increases our confidence in our ability to move to the frontline setting as quickly as possible. Obviously, at some point in 2026, we'll provide an update on the treatment-naive patients, as I mentioned earlier, and that sort of would be the definitive element of that story.
Thanks, Jeff. Follow-up.
You mentioned looking at SVR25 in addition to SVR35, how can you incorporate SVR25 data into your decision-making?
We're really -- to be honest with you, we report both 25 and 35 as has been done in other trials in the past. Some of these patients have relatively short follow-up we have patients enrolled at a range of doses. As you know, these dose escalation trials. So we think it's important to have directional data with this clean shrinkage is going. But the key element here is we are at 35. Make no mistake about that. We report 25 as well, but SVR35 is what we really care about.
Our final question today is coming from Srikripa Devarakonda from Truist Securities.
Another 1 on -- so when it comes to a rux combo, is there a rationale to develop both in suboptimal responders as well as in drug naive patients? Or do you see -- it has a better strategy to focus on 1 versus the other for the longer term. And secondly, what's the FDA guidance for the endpoints now? I know you said do you need to show both SVR35 and TSS50, but would they be co-primary endpoints and you have to hit on both.
So let me take the second part of the question first. Look, we'll have discussions with FDA on the appropriate regulatory end points for what is a novel treatment paradigm for patients with MF, which we think 99 represents. We -- we think it's going to be based on clinical endpoints predominantly, what those specific clinical endpoints will be. We'll discuss it with FDA. We think there's an organ to be made about modifying some of what has been done previously in terms of co-primaries for SVR35 and TSS50 with impact on anemia, for example, we think, could be very important and very interesting for FDA [indiscernible].
In terms of what pivotal trials we will do in MF, those decisions are in the process of being made. And we'll update you over time probably in early 2026. But we intend to develop 989 to address the needs of all patients with MF that are mutant CALR positive. That includes patients that are naive or patients that were treated with Jakafi initially and did not respond or were intolerant -- and in those 2 contexts, monotherapy and in combination with ruxolitinib potentially can have a role. We'll give you more details over time as we disclose the data.
Great. Thanks, we reach the end of our question-and-answer session. And that does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.
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Incyte — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Incyte — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatz: $1,37 Mrd. Gesamtumsatz (+20% YoY (Jahr‑über‑Jahr)).
- Produktumsatz: $1,15 Mrd. (+19% YoY).
- Jakafi: $791 Mio. im Q3 (+7% YoY; Nachfrage +10% YoY); Guidance für Jakafi 2025 auf $3,05–3,075 Mrd. angehoben.
- Opzelura: $188 Mio. (+35% YoY; US-Netto $144 Mio. +21%); bessere Formularplatzierung bei den Top‑PBMs (Pharmacy Benefit Managers).
- Finanzen & Kosten: GAAP R&D $507 Mio., GAAP SG&A $329 Mio.; Net‑Product‑Revenue Guidance 2025 erhöht auf $4,23–4,32 Mrd.; OpEx Guidance bestätigt $3,25–3,31 Mrd.
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Konzentration: Fokus auf „Kern/Growth‑Treiber“: weniger Programme, höhere Qualität; klare Go/No‑Go‑Kriterien.
- Launch‑Priorität: Ruxolitinib XR, Opzelura‑AD (EU) und Povorcitinib als wichtigste near‑term Umsatztreiber; Launch‑Vorbereitungen laufen.
- Kapitalallokation & BD: Kostenkontrolle in weniger wertschöpfenden Bereichen, Reinvestition in prioritäre Programme; Ausbau BD‑Funktion unter neuem CSO zur schnellen Deal‑Triagierung.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Revenue‑Guidance: Net Product Revenue 2025 nun $4,23–4,32 Mrd.; OpEx unverändert.
- Produkt‑Guidance: Jakafi 2025 neu $3,05–3,075 Mrd.; XR‑Formulierung soll Mitte 2026 starten und 15–30% Konversion bis 2028 erreichen.
- Klinische Zeitachse: Opzelura‑AD EU‑Einreichung bis Jahresende, potenzielle Zulassung H2 2026; Povorcitinib EU‑Submission Ende 2025, US‑Submission Anfang 2026, mögliche Starts Ende 2026/Anfang 2027; 989 (mCALR) Updates und potenzielle Phase‑III‑Starts 2026.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- mCALR (989): Analysten forderten klare Single‑Agent‑Wirksamkeit; Management betont, dass ASH‑Update monotherapische Activity und molekulare Endpunkte (VAF, CD34‑mutant) zeigen muss, um Frontline‑Pfad zu rechtfertigen.
- Niktimvo‑Launch: Fragen zur Nachhaltigkeit; Antwort: 90% BMT‑Zentren nutzen das Produkt, Repeat‑Orders, 800 aktive Patienten YTD—Ziel 1.000 bis Jahresende; zwei Kombinationstudien geplant.
- Pipeline‑Priorisierung: Warum BET/CSU stoppten—Entscheidung basierte auf Differenzierung, Risiko/Benefit und Ressourcenfokus; Datenveröffentlichung für CSU‑Phase‑II möglich, Termin noch offen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Kernergebnis: Starkes Quartal mit Umsatzwachstum und Anhebung der Guidance; Management fährt einen strikt priorisierten Pipeline‑Ansatz und spart, wo nötig, ohne Kern‑Investitionen zu kürzen. Hauptkatalysatoren für Anleger: 989‑Daten (ASH), Povorcitinib‑Zulassungen und Opzelura‑EU; Risiken bleiben klinische/ regulatorische Execution und Jakafi‑LOE‑Dynamik.
Incyte — Special Call - Incyte Corporation
1. Management Discussion
We're going to get started. Thank you, everyone, for joining us here in Berlin, and there are many more of you that are online. Welcome to the solid tumor update that we're having at ESMO 2025. We're very excited about 2 programs that we're going to talk about today. We're going to focus on 2 solid tumor programs, our TGF-beta receptor II by PD-1 bispecific and our KRAS G12D inhibitor. Data for both programs was presented here at ESMO. One of them was presented on Friday other was presented earlier today.
We will be making forward-looking statements. And let me walk you through the agenda that we have for today. We have 3 members of our team that will walk you through the biology rationale for our bispecific. Patrick Mayes, our CSO, will do that. Eka Asatiani, Head of Early Development, will talk about the 2 programs of the 2 data sets for TGF-beta and for G12D. And Steven Stein, our Chief Medical Officer, will talk about the future plans for these 2 programs. We'll have plenty of time for questions, and we'll be happy to address as many of those as you have.
So we're going to focus on 2 programs, but equally important is we're going to focus on 2 tumor types today for the purpose of this update. For our TGF-beta receptor 2 by PD-1, we're going to focus on MSS colorectal cancer. As you know, this is 80%, 85%, maybe sometimes 90% of the patients with colorectal cancer continues to be an acute medical need because it doesn't respond to PD-1 inhibitors through checkpoint inhibitors. In fact, 4 trials were done in the early days of checkpoint inhibitor development in these patients and the response rate was 0 in 3 of the trials and 2% in another one of the studies.
These patients present very frequently with liver metastases like it happens with metastatic colorectal cancer. And the biology -- and Patrick will walk you through some of this is heavily enriched for TGF-beta. In addition, some of the more recent immunotherapies that have been tried in this patient population have also been largely unsuccessful, particularly, and I bring your attention to this and Eka will talk about it, particularly for patients that have liver metastases, which are, of course, more than half the patients.
The second tumor of interest for today is pancreatic adenocarcinoma, PDAC for our G12D program. We recognize this remains a very competitive area [ of ] development is increasingly competitive. G12D is the most strong indication in this patient population. And importantly, these patients do have a worse prognosis than wild-type patients. So that is becoming very clear now as we're focusing on the development in this population.
Now I would highlight that there is no therapies for G12D, not only none of them are approved, but there's no G12D inhibitor in pivotal trials in pancreatic cancer today. There's a window of opportunity for us to move in an accelerated way for this disease with a G12D inhibitor.
Very important as you think about first-line therapy in patients with pancreatic cancer is the ability to combine a G12D inhibitor with chemotherapy. This is not just about the activity of the molecule as a single agent, but the combinability with both main types of chemotherapy in this disease, nab-paclitaxel and mFOLFIRINOX. You need to be able to cover both in order to address the entire PDAC population in first-line therapy. And we're moving in that space and Eka will give you an update there.
Just to walk you real quick about the framework that we use to make decisions for this 2 program and other programs, but for the 2 programs we're talking about today. The first part is to establish single-agent activity. You've seen during this meeting, and we'll get more data today about the single-agent activity of TGF-beta bispecific and the KRASG12D inhibitor. So that part, and you've seen the safety profile, we're very pleased with. So that part is almost done. These are single agents. They have single-agent activity and they're tolerable at the recommended doses for expansion.
We need to demonstrate earlier response. We have that data for TGF-beta bispecific and Eka will show it. We are following the patients in the 12D program to establish what the durability of the responses are. The third part is to combine, and as I mentioned, standard of care in both cases, that would be chemotherapy on the TGF-beta receptor 2 bispecific will be FOLFOX plus bevacizumab. We've done that work. Eka will walk you through it. And for our G12D inhibitor I mentioned to chemotherapy, that work is being completed as we speak. So we're moving this in that direction. And the fourth thing we did is, okay, what is the most acute medical need, where can we have the biggest impact for patients and over time for the business, and that is in first-line in combination with chemotherapy. So that's the area of focus for us for these 2 programs.
We're not ruling out other investments in other areas, but those are the 2 areas that we're really going to have a more intense focus. So with that, I'm going to stop here. Patrick Mayes can come up and walk us through the biology and how we designed our bispecific and why it is a unique approach to address TGF-beta biology, which arguably is the second most important mechanism of immune tolerance from tumors other than PD-1, PD-L1 assays. Eka will follow with the updates on the clinical data for both the TGF-beta program and G12D inhibitor.
Okay. So I'm going to overview our first-in-class bispecific antibody targeting TGF-beta R2 and PD-1. We'll refer to this as INCA890. So this is what we're going to discuss. I'll take you through a bit of the importance of TGF-beta in the solid tumor microenvironment, why it is such a potent immunosuppressive factor and why we believe targeting this factor is going to be so important in these tumor types. And then I'll tell you a bit about the fundamentally different approach we've taken at Incyte in targeting this biology, why what we're doing is distinct from what others have tried in this space before. I'll show you a bit of preclinical data, but I'll refer you back to a presentation we made at AACR 2023, which is a much more comprehensive characterization of the molecule. So we prefer there to the full profile of the molecule, and then Eka will walk you through the clinical data.
So TGF-beta is a potent immunosuppressive factor in solid tumors. It acts directly on T cells. It binds to T cells and it inhibits their function and their proliferation. You can see this in the graph on the left-hand part of the slide here in blue is T cells that have been induced to proliferate, increasing concentration of TGF-beta blunt that proliferation inhibit [indiscernible]. We can take T cells and we can treat them with a PD-1 antibody, as shown in red, PD-1 induces proliferation of T cells, induces their activation. TGF-beta is a dominant factor, right? Even in the presence of a PD-1 antibody, TGF-beta inhibits the proliferation of those cells. So it speaks to the importance of TGF-beta and even in the setting of a PD-1 antibody. In the solid tumor microenvironment, high levels of TGF-beta are associated with an immune-excluded phenotype.
This is where immune cells are present in the tumor, but they're excluded from direct contact with tumor cells. The said they're stuck in the tumor stroma, they're unable to form productive synapses with tumor cells and elicit that antitumor immunity. So what we know is that the immune-excluded phenotype in addition to high levels of TGF-beta are associated with PD-1 nonresponse in the solid tumor microenvironment. So together with Tempus, we looked at TGF-beta biology across solid tumors. This is an analysis of 16 different solid tumor types that we looked at. We looked at 2 different factors in this particular plot that we're showing here on the bottom right.
First TGF-beta R2 expression on the X-axis. And then we looked at a TGF-beta gene signature that's associated with T cells. This is on the Y-axis. And these 2 factors we looked at in various solid tumors. And you can see a high enrichment score for TGF-beta across solid tumors, in particular, MSS colorectal is highly enriched with TGF-beta biology.
So because of the importance of this biology, multiple attempts have been made at targeting this pathway in solid tumors. None has yet to be successful clinically. And you can bucket these approaches into 2 broad categories as to how they've been engineered. First is agents which target the receptors directly. So we have TGF-beta R2. It forms a [ heterocomposite ] of TGF-beta R1, and that's about how the signaling occurs intracellular. Antibody approaches have been attempted targeting TGF-beta R2, monoclonal antibodies have failed in toxicity. Likewise, small molecule inhibitors of TGF-beta R1 inhibiting the kinase domain, which signals downstream have been tried and have failed because of toxicity associated with the approach.
TGF-beta is an important factor in normal tissues around the body and I think the narrow therapeutic index associated with broad potent inhibition systemically. So more recent approaches have worked upstream of the receptor to try to minimize the toxicity associated with broad inhibition. These approaches can be characterized as agents which target the processing of ligand or the engagement of ligand with receptor, either using a track or a monoclonal antibody.
These approaches can be characterized as being partial inhibitors of TGF-beta signaling. This is what gives them the therapeutic index necessary to be able to dose in humans, but this partial inhibition profile has yet to be successful in terms of eliciting efficacy in cancer. So the approach we've taken is different. It's distinct from what others have tried here. We're taking a cell targeted approach, where we are targeting TGF-beta R2 on tumor infiltrating lymphocytes and potently and completely inhibiting that signal on those cells, thus having full activity on the cell type of interest and avoiding the systemic toxicity associated with pathway inhibition.
So how have we achieved this cell targeted approach? We have generated a 1x1 bispecific antibody, and we're utilizing a dock and block mechanism of action here. So the first thing we did was engineer a very high affinity PD-1 binding arm for this antibody. This binds to and inhibits PD-1 and all PD-1 positive cells in the body. We then engineered and tuned the TGF-beta R2 arm in a way that it allows for potent and complete inhibition of TGF-beta R2 only in the context of when the PD-1 arm of the antibody is [indiscernible].
Inhibition of TGF-beta signaling is -- occurs on cells that do not have PD-1 expression, thus avoiding the toxicity associated with broad TGF-beta inhibition. An example of this selectivity shown here on the graph on the left, this is an example of a cell line that has TGF-beta R2 expression with no PD-1 expression. The control for this experiment is in blue. This is a monoclonal antibody targeting TGF-beta R2. It inhibits completely the signaling through TGF-beta pathway via phospho SMAD. Whereas the bispecific shown in red has almost no signaling inhibition in this context. If you look then, this is an isogenic system. The only change being made in this cell is the introduction of PD-1 expression on the right. And the control looks the same. You see potent and complete inhibition of TGF-beta signaling, whereas in this context, the bispecific antibody has complete inhibition of the pathway even to a greater extent than the monoclonal.
So in summary, we have a potential first-in-class bispecific here. This is a context-dependent inhibitor of TGF-beta signaling in tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes. We believe there's strong rationale for this agent in tumor types where TGF-beta is highly enriched. This includes a number of tumor types where immune checkpoint inhibitors have not been approved and are not used, such as ovarian cancer and MSS colorectal cancer, which we'll talk about today. But we believe this also has a PD-1 better approach and potential in tumor types where ICI is approved, PD-1 is used, and this provides the opportunity to expand the responsiveness in those tumor types as well. So I will stop here and pass it over to Eka.
Thank you, Patrick. So I'll now switch to clinical data that was presented on Friday, as Pablo mentioned. So this is a schematic of a Phase I trial that we presented. Dose escalation was done in selected tumor types from 100 milligram to 1,500 milligram given every 2 weeks IV. We also tested 900 milligram every 4 weeks. We arrived at 3 recommended doses for expansion and randomized patients with selected tumor types. Those were selected based on the TGF-beta signature that Patrick mentioned. The biggest enrichment was for colorectal cancer, this bigger group was patients with MSS colorectal cancer in this expansion.
In parallel, we also tested selected tumor types in combination regimens with focus with standard of care relevant for colorectal cancer such as FOLFOX, bevacizumab, FOLFIRI bevacizumab, bevacizumab and cetuximab. Now dose escalation with 900 milligrams has been completed and now we are enriching and enrolling more patients in expansion cohort, particularly with FOLFOX and bevacizumab to support the safety database Phase III trial.
So this is baseline demographics and characteristics of 260 patients that were treated in monotherapy cohort as of July 25. This is pretty mature data set. 52 patients are still ongoing. Majority have discontinued. It should be noted that discontinuations due to treatment-related adverse events were extremely rare, only 4.6% of patients discontinued due to adverse events. The other thing I want to note here that it's a very advanced patient population. As you can see on the bottom of the slide, there is 35 months from initial diagnosis, multiple lines of therapies were given to these patients with median of 3 and range of 1 to 9. Again, biggest stack is MSS colorectal with 114 patients [indiscernible].
Safety summary. So we escalated doses up until 1,500 milligrams without DLTs, 1,500 milligram exceeded maximum tolerated dose. There was one DLT of myocarditis, but there were also other severe immune-related adverse events of those endocrine and CNS events in later cycles at this dose level, and we stopped enrolling patients at the dose level and extended dose levels below. So 300, 600 and 900 were extended, and that's the data that I want to focus and present now.
It should be noted that treatment-related adverse events and grade 3 events are very rare. This compares very favorably to approved checkpoint inhibitors. There were -- especially 900-milligram group, large group, 110 patients, we had very few grade 3 events in single-digit percentages, very few serious treatment-related adverse events. There were few treatment delays and only 2 patients discontinued due to adverse events.
When we look at the immune-related adverse events as reported by investigators, again, 5% grade 3 events. We also looked at infusion reactions. There were some infusion reactions of grade 4, 2 events, 1 leading to discontinuation, other one with rechallenge. Those happen at lower doses. Once the evolve training of the sites on infusion rates and premedications, secondary prophylaxis for premedication, those events reduced and there were no grade 3 or higher events at 900 milligrams.
A bit more granular view of safety profile with treatment-related adverse events is decreasing frequency in 5% [indiscernible]. Again few events. Grade 3 treatment-related adverse events are mostly to skin toxicities in rash and psoriasis. Also [indiscernible].
Here, we have a slide describing pharmacokinetics and anti-drug antibody very favorable and typical, I would say, for bispecific antibody. There is some treatment mediated drug distribution at the lower doses. We did have antidrug antibodies in 78% of patients, but that did not affect PK. So it did not affect concentration at 900 milligram in large cohorts of patients that we have. We also did analysis of ADA versus adverse events and ADA versus efficacy and there was no correlation there. It did not also correlate with infusion reaction.
We did cleared biopsies and evaluated among other things, CD8 cells, and there was increase in cycle to day 15 on treatment and the extent of this increase correlated with the efficacy enrich responders versus nonresponders.
And finally, efficacy data. So here, we focus on MSS colorectal cancer. We had 105 patients treated and evaluable at our at those 3 dose levels that I listed before. Now this was heavily pretreated patient population. So 93% of those patients received this treatment at third line and beyond. So they had 2 prior lines of therapy. 70% had active liver metastases and those were large active metastases. I will show a couple of representative cases. 16 of those patients responded. And most surprisingly, I must say for myself, personally has never been reported before that those patients with liver metastases also had a response.
So, 9 out of 16 had active liver metastasis and 7 had no liver metastases. There was no correlation of dose versus efficacy that we could tease out from here, which is again not surprising for immunotherapy. Duration of treatment was 7.3 months. And I'll show you on the next slide, a swimmer plot for patients with responder say. And you can see that these are confirmed responses in majority of the patients. The bottom swimmer plot is not confirmed, but ongoing, so confirmable and there is another one that discontinued before confirmation, but rest of them are confirm responses.
Now I should note here also that there is one patient that discontinued early due to -- actually low grade troponin increase and continue to have response for 1 year, so 6 months [indiscernible] discontinuation.
Quite striking response in this patient. This is a 73-year-old gentlemen with Stage 4 MSS colorectal cancer with multiple visceral metastasis liver, lung, also bone metastases. This patient had prior and FOLFOX plus bev and FOLFIRI treatment, and was treated at low dose at 300 milligram and achieved CR at 28 weeks and confirmed at 32 weeks and remained on treatment for another year. And you can see how big the liver mets are. These are not small liver lesions. These are clinically relevant but clinically active lesions that show shrinkage. So we have this target lesion measured and also the nontarget liver lesions, which is also shown.
Another case, again, patients with prior lines, actually 4 lines of therapy here, FOLFOX, bev and FOLFIRI and some additional including investigational agents treated at 900 milligram achieved CR 8 weeks and confirmed at 16 weeks and currently still on treatment 10 months plus. Again, big liver lesion. I think it's very illustrative of what we have observed in those patients.
Now we also saw responses and efficacy in other tumor types where we would not expect immunotherapies to work. Among them in patients that have been previously treated with immunotherapy. As you can see here in blue, we have patients that have received prior checkpoint inhibitors, we have responders among head and neck patients and as well as non-small cell lung cancer patients, pretty impressive responses in ovarian cancer patients. And we have also marked the patients here that have very low PD-L1 staining of less than 1 CPS score. And among those patients as well, we have some responders.
So this data kind of increases our confidence that this biology that this trial has proof of concept, strong proof of concept with clinical efficacy in tumor types that would otherwise not respond to immunotherapy and also coupled with very favorable safety profile.
So based on this, we started combinations relevant for earlier lines of therapy in colorectal cancer. So we have now cleared in dose escalation cohorts of patients for bevacizumab and FOLFOX. FOLFIRI, bevacizuman and bevacizumab and cetuximab. We are currently enrolling larger cohorts focusing on FOLFOX and bevacizumab in preparation of supporting Phase III trials with additional safety data. The combination looks good. There is no overlapping toxicity that we could out from patients treated so far.
So to conclude, 900 milligram is selected at the recommended dose. It's a favorable PK profile. There is very little effect of ADA or actually no effect of ADA on PK at this dose level. There are responses observed in MSS colorectal cancer patients, including ones with active liver metastases. And currently, we are preparing a Phase III trial that Steven is going to explain.
I will switch now to KRAS G12D inhibitor. The key takeaways here, we all know that KRAS is one of the most common driver antigen relevant in solid tumors. And G12D is the most relevant one and most common one is. We have an inhibitor, which is potent and selective. It's on and off inhibitor. And hopefully, today, I'll be able to convince you that we have a potential to be the first selective G12D selective therapy for G12D mutated pancreatic cancer.
So KRAS G12D cancer, again, molecular belongs to KRAS protein molecular switches that control multiple signaling cascade that promotes proliferation and survival. This isoform G12D is the most common mutation, more relevant in pancreatic cancer with close to 40% of patients having G12D mutation, also in non-small cell lung cancer and 15% of colorectal cancer. Now G12D confers full-scope prognosis. In terms of response to chemotherapy, also overall survival. And when compared to wild type, KRAS wild type, but also other G12 isoform compared to other KRAS mutations, it confers full-scope prognosis.
So this is data that was presented by [ Kathryn Arbour ] in 2024. We have G12D inhibitor 734, which binds KRAS protein inactive and active forms as a switch to pocket and it is picomolar concentration, so it is potent. It is also selective with more than 80 fold selectivity in different assays. And you can see some of them on the right side of the slide. We have presented a number of preclinical data in xenograft and syngeneic tumor models, and this was all in the poster at AACR in 2024.
So I will today present clinical data that was actually presented from scientific podium this afternoon. So this is from the Phase I trial where we conducted dose escalation in G12D mutated tumors from 200 milligrams to 1,600 milligram QD. We also tested twice a day regimen with 600 milligrams twice a day. In parallel, we did additional exploration in PD cohorts at 2 dose levels, 600 and 1,000 with biopsies. We did some [indiscernible] effect work, which enabled us to administer drug now with food. And we selected 2 dose levels, 600 milligram and 1,200 milligram and randomized patients with the 2 dose levels. And this patient, the largest cohort we have is in pancreatic cancer and also colorectal cancer and additional work is ongoing in other tumor types.
And then we further reach 1,200 milligram, which we selected out of those 2 RDE extensions and focusing on second-line pancreatic cancer now. We also tested combinations with chemotherapy regimens for pancreatic cancer, both commonly used chemotherapy regimens, Gem/Abraxane and FOLFIRINOX. We also actually combined with TGF-beta receptor 2 PD-1 bispecific and currently, the first dose level is enrolling.
So this is a patient disposition and baseline characteristic as of August 1 cutoff. We have enrolled 138 patients on monotherapy. The largest group here, again, is pancreatic cancer with 83 patients followed by colorectal cancer. Now this is less mature data set. So more than half of the patients are still ongoing. 75 patients are still on treatment. I should note here that there are no toxicity-induced dose discontinuation. So no patient has discontinued treatment due to adverse events. Very heavily pretreated population with multiple prior lines of therapy. So focus here again is on pancreatic cancer. And as we can see in this data set in the 83 patients treated at various dose levels, only 13 were second-line patients, majority were third line and plus.
Safety profile. No DLTs were observed. We arrived at all the way up to 1,600 milligrams without any DLT. PD was never reached. However, we stopped dose escalation and decided to expand 600 and 1,200 milligrams based on emerging PK and PD data that I will go to in a minute. So once again, I would like to mention that no patients discontinued treatment due to adverse events.
The most common treatment-related adverse events leading to those reductions were nausea, decreased appetite and fatigue. Majority of adverse events were grade 1 and grade 2, and I will show it on the next slide in a bit more granular way. So these are treatment-related adverse events with frequency of 5% and above in decreasing incidents. As you can see, the GI toxicities on top of the list, that majority of those cases are Grade 1. So half of them are grade 1. Very few Grade 2 and Grade 3 events, including nausea, diarrhea and vomiting and fatigue, which are the common.
We also looked actually at our database, looking for myelosuppression, skin toxicity, et cetera. They are isolated cases, but there is no signal. We do not observe it in longterm.
Here is the PK profile, focusing on 2 dose levels, 600 and 1,200. So both dose levels at steady state cover IC95, more consistently at 1,200 milligram higher dose. And also when we looked at ctDNA change from baseline in pancreatic cancer patients, there was deeper and quicker reduction at higher dose. So that's why we selected 1,200 milligram dose to move forward. And the deep reductions in ctDNA also correlated with clinical response. We actually did this, which we were complemented today. We did it real time during the dose escalation, and it really helped us with the dose escalation and selection of the dose.
And here is efficacy slide, the waterfall plot. And I'm going to take time to walk through this slide slowly so indulge for a minute. So it's a busy slide, and we show a lot of things here to be as transparent as possible. So we have waterfall plot with scans in 50 patients. But we include in our denominator all patients that were treated and discontinued treatment or had at least 1 scan. So 54 patients included in the denominator.
Second, majority of those patients received treatment at third line plus. There are only 9 patients that were treated as a second line in this data set in the 54 patients. And third point I want to make is that majority of those patients only had one scan and many of them are still ongoing. 27 out of those 54 only had one scan. And we know from other G12X G12C inhibitors that actually responses can take place on second scan. So with all this said, we have 34% response rate and high disease control rate of 86%.
Illustrated case here. So this 69-year-old gentlemen with Stage IV pancreatic cancer was diagnosed in last year 2024, extensive mass liver lung peritoneal, which usually worse, previously progressed on FOLFIRINOX and received this treatment at 400 milligram received treatment without interruptions, have deep reduction of disease, including the primary tumor, which is actually harder to treat. Usually, the primary pancreatic lesions do not respond as well. So this patient has a large reduction of pancreatic mass and was achieved on assessed on 2 subsequent scans and had a confirmation of PR at 24 weeks and as of treatment still as of today, continues on.
So in conclusion, we have a molecule that has manageable toxicity profile quite tolerable. We have selected the dose now based on ctDNA PK coverage of the target we have very promising early clinical efficacy still confirming durability of responses. We have combined with 2 different chemotherapy regimens, Gem/Abraxane and modified FOLFIRINOX. Gem/Abraxane has finished the dose escalation we are extending. And for FOLFIRINOX, we are still waiting for completion of the DLT evaluation period for the last couple of patients, and we plan to expand this as well.
With this, I will pass on to Steven to discuss next.
Thank you, Eka, Patrick, Pablo. The reason I'm standing here is important in that you can see we are about to go into the next phase of development. I'll outline the why behind that, and then we'll invite everybody up here for Q&A.
So just to go back to the framework that Pablo gave you upfront and reset it based on the data you just saw. So if you look at the framework in terms of establishing single-agent activity and the safety profile, both for TGF-beta and for KRAS 12D, you saw the efficacy signals given to you and the monotherapy data safety profile. For the TGF-beta, you saw mostly IR-related AEs and the DLTX1500, which is not the dose we'll be taking forward. And for the 12D profile, you saw the GI safety profile. In terms of monotherapy, single-agent activity for both we saw what is striking single-agent activity for TGF-beta microsatellite colorectal cancer, particularly for the liver metastasis, which is unprecedented in terms of IO therapies. And for 12D, I'll just paraphrase the discussion today at the session, we said remarkable activity and potentially the best single-agent activity seen in PDAC with a 12D directed agent to date.
Durability of response demonstrated with TGF-beta R2, what's become common with IO therapies is once patients respond, those responses are very long, and you saw duration of therapy for the majority of patients greater than 24 weeks. One could argue that for the KRAS 12D, we still have to wait a bit longer to see durability of response, which is obviously what we will be doing before triggering a registration program.
The profile when combined with standard of care is ongoing now, as Ed alluded to, but we cleared the initial safety hurdles in terms of DLT. And very importantly, for the 12D compound, we demonstrated that both for Gem/Abraxane and for modified FOLFIRINOX. Why is that important? If you look at real-world use of the regimens in first-line pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, it's about 50-50. So we feel it's very important to be able to combine potentially with both chemotherapy regimens.
And then lastly, this is a clear medical need in very large tumor types quantitatively. These are enormous problems across the world and massive unmet need in terms of microsatellite colorectal cancer and pancreatic ductal carcinoma.
Let's go back to microsatellite stable colorectal cancer. It is one of the most common cancers seen worldwide. It's a leading cause of cancer death. In fact, if you look at the United States, Western Europe, Japan, there's nearly 2 million people diagnosed with colorectal cancer and about a little north of 400,000 of those are Stage IV metastatic patients.
Unfortunately, the long-term survival for patients with Stage IV metastatic microsatellite stable colorectal cancer is below 16%, 5-year survival rate. And as both Pablo and Eka pointed out, immunotherapies in microsatellite colorectal cancer have little to no activity and particularly in patients with liver metastasis, that's become almost a clinical marker of the lateral [indiscernible] responsiveness. Hence, that very important signal seen in patients with liver metastasis. The standard of care in the first-line setting in terms of chemotherapy is FOLFOX bev or FOLFOX EGFR.
But the FOLFOX bev regimen is used regardless of RAS status, whether you're mutant or wild type, regardless of the sidedness of the tumor, whether you're left or right sided. The EGFR combo is used mostly for left-sided tumors and is more commonly used in Europe. Ballpark response rates for the chemotherapy regimens of the 50% to 60% range, PFS, 8 months, top end, 11 months and overall survival, 30 months, speaking to the massive unmet medical need in this population.
As Patrick showed you, TGF-beta expression is extremely high in the tumor microenvironment in microsatellite colorectal cancer and is probably outside of PD-L1 expression, the dominant marker of T cell unresponsiveness. So there's an opportunity here to establish a novel regimen in first-line microsatellite colorectal cancer that builds on the current most common standard of care, which is VEGF combined with the chemotherapy, ballpOX. It's a broad population, independent of RAS status, independent of sidedness and reminder that about 70% of patients have liver metastasis. In terms of diagnosis, this covers 85% of the population with the other 15% made up of the microsatellite high, some BRAF mutant tumors and then obviously other biomarkers like HER2, but 85% will be covered by this regimen potentially.
So where are we? We have durable single-agent activity, a manageable tolerability profile demonstrated by Eka data set in late-line microsatellite patients. The responses are observed [indiscernible] both in patients with and without liver metastasis and the profile thus far provides an opportunity for combination in first-line microsatellite colorectal cancer with the standard of care chemotherapy with some ongoing safety work going.
To be clear, we're planning initiation as we speak now of a Phase III registrational program in early 2026 in first-line microsatellite metastatic colorectal patients in combination with standard of care. We've aligned with regulators on the schema and the primary endpoint of progression-free survival.
So turning to pancreatic ductal Adenocarcinoma. This is probably the most RAS-addicted cancer with no targeted therapies with a specific mutation, KRAS mutant 12b patients. It's a rapidly progressive disease with extremely high mortality, less than a 10%, 5-year survival rate. Again, in Western Europe, North America and Japan, 210,000 patients, of which greater than 90% carry a RAS mutation, of which 40% of those had a 12D mutation. First and second-line metastatic treatment is limited to combination with single-agent chemotherapy. And because of the severity of the disease and the lack of tolerability of the regimens upfront in these patients, most patients do not make it to second-line regimens.
Chemotherapy is associated with many grade 3 and 4 toxicities, particularly myelosuppression as well as neuropathy. And the care standard, as I said upfront is argued between Gem/Abraxane and modified FOLFIRINOX, probably split 50-50 with some regional differentiation there, response rates in the 20% to 40% range, median PFS, 5.5 to 8 months and an overall survival of 8.5 to 11.7 months with those chemotherapy regimens.
So where are we with our KRAS12D in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Again, a solid proof of concept, as speaker said today, remarkable activity and maybe probably the best data seen in the 12D mutated patients to date. 12D mutations are known to carry a worse prognosis than other patients with a manageable safety profile in the heavily pretreated population and then ongoing enabling work with the chemotherapy combinations that are important. And again, both gem/Abraxane plus modified FOLFIRINOX.
We feel we have the first potential target therapy for KRAS-mutated PDAC patients. We'll continue to do the enabling safety work and continue to evaluate the durability of response with this immature based on the data set Eka showed you today. And we'll be aligning with regulators on the registrational program, pending those will be going into registration in first-line PDAC in combination with both chemotherapy regimens also in 2026.
I'll summarize again, large patient population by size, significant unmet need, certainly in the cancer setting, probably the most significant unmet need in terms of microsatellite colorectal cancer and pancreatic carcinoma. And again, to reiterate the importance for us of going to first line to make the most difference for patients in this condition, and we feel that's an important strategic choice that we've made.
The TGF-beta bispecific, the efficacy and safety data support that advancement, a novel regimen in the broadest population in combination with FOLFOX and bev. And to reiterate, we'll be initiating a Phase III program in early 2026. The 12D probably a little behind, but single-agent activity demonstrated a manageable safety profile, the ongoing enabling work with safety and then the durability that needs to be finally assessed before we trigger the program, but the intent is to start that program as soon as those milestones are achieved and to be the first potential targeted therapy for KRAS-mutated 12D patients with pancreatic carcinoma.
With that, I'll ask Pablo to come up and the other 2 speakers to join us all the program up here. There are about 100 people online. We'll first take questions in the room and then move to the online.
Thank you, Patrick, Steven.
2. Question Answer
Even Seigerman from BMO Capital Markets. So at so last year, the focus of bureaucrat was really 1 CDK2 inhibitor, the gynecological cancers this year, you're talking about G12D and TGF beta. And these data are fantastic. I don't want to deny that. But it seems that the effort is a bit inconsistent. How should I square how you're thinking more broadly about solid tumor development in that 1 year, we're talking about 1 topic on the next year, we're focused on G12D in pancreatic cancer.
So you're correct. Last year, I focused on CDK2, CDK2 inhibitor program was -- generated efficacy data in ovarian cancer. That program, I would say, is today the most advanced CDK2 inhibitor in development, and we're developing as we pointed out in the very cancer. I think the approach that we're taking with this program, just follow the science, quite honestly. It CDK2, we generated data, some baby breast cancer, [indiscernible] it hasn't stopped, but it hasn't been the main focus. Early on, it was obvious that we had responses and a lot of stable disease with -- to implement resistant over answer. So we agreed to chase that signal, which is what we're doing.
We've got another combination with gavacizumab and our goal in the long run is flooding sensor and counts. We're basically maintenance up to first line. We think in patients post chemo bed that need maintenance, which is long duration of therapy for 12, 15, 18 months in oral molecularly targeted therapy with a enroll could have a big advantage over the intense competition that continues to emerge in ovarian cancer.
Now, for these new programs, we once again follow signs. For TGF-beta, as Patrick explained, we had a hint that the biology gave us about the imports of the TGF-beta pathway in particular MSS colorectal in others. Early on, we saw responses in colorectal. We accelerated development there. We enrolled than 100 patients. We have a very strong efficacy signal and we've done the combination on I think where the GST inhibitor was the most straightforward, right, we knew where to go from the beginning. In fact, even though it was clear which patients to go after, the pancreatic signal emerge faster than the others, we are doing some work in colorectal. I think we have a unique advantage in EGFR treated colorectal cancer because the ability to combine with cetuximab, which were things like remote may have difficulty.
So I'll give you a very long answer. I think what we're doing with these programs is we start on scientific principles at the beginning. And then in a disciplined and thorough way, we chase science-driven signals and we make decisions based on the emerging data, and we'll continue to do that. We're now going to go everywhere all months we are being deliberate in how we take these opportunities in order to use -- to have disciplined use of capital, but at the same time trying to address medicom7.
Michael?
Michael Schmidt with Guggenheim. On the G12D program, I let discussing today talked about the GI portability on the molecule and one of the others. And just wondering if you could -- or from doing with chemotherapy.
So let's focus on GI and there was a comment there a discussion about diarrhea specifically. I'm not sure where we focus on that, but maybe you can talk about a little bit more granular what we're seeing in the trial.
1200 milligram is what we're moving forward and enriching with additional patients. We have seen GI toxicity, majority grade 1 cases, manageable with anti-diarrhea [indiscernible]. There are very few grade 3 cases, no discontinuations due to this.
Combination with chemo.
Combination with chemo is ongoing with FOLFIRINOX, Gem/Abraxane with colorectal with DLT. You don't have to dose reduce. We don't have to dose reduce chemo and we do not have to do that we do.
You have to remember, right, when you look at a certain percent with a certain grade toxicity that diarrhea, that person has 1 day of that grade diarrhea that gets counted automatically there. I think what I give you more granularity is and what I always look for is dose discontinuations, dose reductions, dose interruptions. And from that perspective, we're comfortable that this is proven to be a well-tolerated drug at these doses. And the combination with chemo, as we pointed out in the presentation, we're about to clear the dose escalation period for the FOLFIRINOX, GEMNabP.
Salveen Richter, Goldman Sachs. Could you speak to competitive positioning around your KRAS G12D program? As you noted, there's not much of a second-line opportunity versus first line, but you have Revolution Medicine with 2 assets here. So maybe put that in context for us, especially as you think about combining with standard of care.
So KRAS in general with pan-RAS KRAS and specific inhibitors, obviously become extraordinarily competitive over the past couple of years. When we look at all the data available, including 2 or 3 of the presentations today in the last couple of days, we are convinced that when you look for 12D specific patients, 12D mutated patients, the balance of efficacy and safety that we have is best-in-class. If there's somebody that is comparable, perhaps. But we are very comfortable with the tumor reductions that we're seeing, the tolerability and now as Eka pointed out, the tolerability in combination with chemotherapy.
We can combine with both main types of chemotherapy in pancreatic cancer. Let's remember that GEMNabP and FOLFIRINOX are used in about 50%, 50% of the patients. So if you can cover the entire chemotherapy spectrum with a precisely targeted G12D inhibitor, we think that's going to be an advantage. Now second line, we think that train has left the station. that second-line study is ongoing. They're going to have to file next year. We expect that to be positive. But as Steven pointed out, patients with pancreatic cancer, the opportunity really is reduced dramatically in second line. We think that the big opportunity here for patients and for the business is in first-line in combination with chemotherapy.
So our goal now as we continue to monitor the emerging data to make sure we're making the right decisions is to move to implement those studies in the first-line study as quickly as possible. Now if the data changes over the next 6 months, we'll act accordingly. But right now, the plan based on what we have today is to move as quick as possible to first-line P in combination with chemotherapy. And we think we can be very, very competitive there.
Reni Benjamin from Citizens. One, your framework. One thing that I thought was missing was the comparison of other drugs in development, whether it's drugs currently in development or the ones that are already established. So I'm kind of curious as to when does that get factored in to that framework. And then the other is, I think, Eka, you were mentioning that the MSS -- the gene signature that was used to not just identify CRC. I think you said it was utilized in clinical trials as well. I'm kind of curious how heterogeneous is that gene signature? Is there a correlation of response? And could you use it for patient selection routine patient selection?
Let me address the first one and then Andrew or Patrick can address the gene signature. We are constantly monitoring our competitors. And when we look at let's take the tumor types. I think I explained our positioning vis-a-vis competitors for G12D pancreatic cancer. Obviously, we're fully aware of receiving the race in second line. We think we have a chance to compete in first line, and we think we have a very competitive profile. And nothing that I saw in the last couple of days changes in my mind, our competitive positioning for G12D inhibitor and PDAC. I think for first-line MSS colorectal, there's less activity. The way we look at it is we have unprecedented single-agent response in third, fourth line colorectal for immunotherapy. There's 4 trials, historic nivo, pembro, et cetera, 3 of them had a 0% response rate, had a 2% response rate. We showed 15% response rate today. Newer immunotherapies in the same context have shown no responses in patients with liver mets. If I walk you through the data in patients with liver mets.
So we think relative to other immunotherapies in development in sense colorectal, we think right now, we have unprecedented single-agent activity and the combinability of the chemotherapy has now been established. When I look at the broader landscape outside of that, there's other entrants in the space. But I think, again, looking at the single agent activity that we've shown in third, fourth line, I would argue we have the best in disease right now or comparable to some of the best interventions in the disease. And the goal is to execute as fast as possible to go into first-line colorectal in combination with chemotherapy. You want to address the...
Definition of MSS colorectal question was...
No, it's about the TGF...
So Patrick showed this data to elaborate on that MSS colorectal, which is basically MSI negative, right? So micro microsatellite stable colorectal cancer falls high in TGF-beta signature based on the data that we used at the published literature as well. So we selected patients with MSS colorectal extension cohorts based on this data. We have not screened patients for TGF-beta signature in cell. We just central their MS.
Yes. So the question is, can we enrich for any markers that would be associated with response. I think we're looking at a number of exploratory measures included in that is the TGF-beta gene signature. We've got gene signatures associated with T cells specifically, other gene signatures, other factors within the TGF-beta pathway, the ligands, the receptor itself. So we're looking at those measures. Data that we showed on Friday in the presentation was also PD-L1 levels. So we saw correlation with response in PD-L1 greater than 1%. So I think that is another marker. Obviously, that's an assay that's used. It's there. That was an association that we saw.
We just complete the thought. We may decide to incorporate some of this in subset analysis in the study. But to be clear, the study will be non-cers other than obviously patients with certain mutations, wild-type right and left side MSS colorectal.
Follow up on the CRC program with 890. So just you did see some kind of activity across KRAS patients and other things that we wouldn't want to exclude those in the Phase III. And then are you continuing to explore some of those other tumor types that you showed here or maybe you haven't shown yet?
Let me take the second part and then we can talk about whether we have across a range of mutations. We showed the data that we've generated so far. I think it's to say it's very intriguing, particularly ovarian cancer data. I mean the response rate is about 28% in heavily ovarian cancer population, interesting results in head and neck, not unexpected interesting results in non-small cell lung cancer. At this point, we're being very deliberate in how we continue to expand this program. MSS colorectal is an intense focus. We will generate additional data on the tumor types, and we'll make decisions based on that emerging data mat. But those programs are not being accelerated right now. The second part...
So we have looked at various mutations left-sided, right-sided clinical and molecular characteristics of those responders versus nonresponders. What we presented was PD-L1 and the correlation Otherwise, we did not see any significant clinical correlation. We are not excluding any patients with KRAS mutation and not plan. We will exclude patients that have alternative first-line therapy such as [indiscernible].
Eric Schmidt from Cantor. Two questions quickly on the G12D. Maybe to dive a little bit deeper into Salveen's question, what actually are you trying to solve for with regard to a frontline pancreatic cancer trial in the world where we do have a KRAS multi inhibitor that seemingly is looking terrific. You look for better safety, better efficacy, better convenience for having. And then two, maybe I missed it, was there PFS data from the G12D in pancreatic? Is that not yet mature?
The second real quick, no, the data is not mature. We'll have the PFS data over time, and we'll update you all with those results as they emerge. But as Eka mentioned, half the patients only have one scan. So we can tell you confident in this period of tumor shrinkage, there's PRs, but we need time to establish the durability. And that could conceivably -- I think it's unlikely based on what we've seen so far, but conceivably change our decision-making. Why in first line? So look, I think what our colleagues, as you mentioned, RM have done is impressive. However, when you look at the second and third-line data, and as Eka mentioned, we had a very advanced patient population with a very small number of second-line patients in that waterfall plot. The data in third plus line is 22% response rate.
So we'll see where our response rate lands, but we think we're going to be very competitive and perhaps numerically significantly better than that. So that's point number one. The second is, I think, in part because of the profile of the panvast inhibitor, when you look at the most recent update, the dose-intensive chemotherapy in that combination was 63%, which tells you the compromise in the dose of the chemo and they haven't combined with FOLFIRINOX, which as I mentioned, is used by about half the population in pancreatic cancer. that's what we're trying. We're trying to develop a G12D inhibitor that can be used for all patients with G12D mutated PDAC with any chemotherapy.
And by maintaining the intensity of chemotherapy, we expect to overcome resistance, which obviously they try to overcome by the RAS coverage, we try to overcome resistance and maybe get better results. It could turn out that both ideas will work equally well. And then in my experience, and I think [indiscernible] probably shared this, the molecular precisely targeted therapies tend to win out. But we'll see. I think that's something we'll be.
[indiscernible] from Stifel. For 890, can you just talk about the levels of TGF-beta inhibition that you're achieving at the doses that you moved forward for the purposes of expansion? And then maybe just quickly on the KRAS asset. when should we be thinking about next update from a timing perspective? And presumably, that includes the single agent duration of response data, but should we also expect some chemo combo data at that as well?
Yes. Let me take the second one real quick and then Patrick can address the TGF-beta target engagement question. Honestly, we haven't decided. It will be over the next few months. And as we accelerate these decisions and implement the studies, we'll give you clarity where we are with the data. But looking at the next few months, I can't come up with the right venue. So it may have to be a stand-alone update to tell you where we're then with the response rate, what's the duration of response? And obviously, over time, we'll have efficacy with the chemotherapy. I think the safety of the chemotherapy, that's pretty much clear. I think we need a week or 2 to make sure the FOLFIRINOX combination clear the official DLT period, but then obviously, will generate longer-term follow-up. And we'll provide updates in a timely fashion over the next few months. Do you want to address, Patrick?
Yes, the target occupancy, I mean, I guess a couple of things. One, we're achieving full occupancy of both arms even at the 300-milligram dose. So I think the dose response you saw there, we're saturating early. The 900, I think it's the PK, it's the lack of 8 effects at the 900 dose. So I think that's part of the rationale there. Because of the precise mechanism here, it's challenging, right, to get a real definitive measure of inhibition in tumor infiltrating lymphocytes in a tumor microenvironment where there's high levels of TGF-beta, high levels of cells, which have the same factor. So we're measuring it. It's -- I would say it's a qualitative assessment.
It's tough to get numbers on that. But I'll refer you back to the PK plot where we had a line there. It was EC90 for MLR assay and we're well above that MLR EC90 coverage at the dose selection going forward. So based upon our preclinical measures and the modeling that we did, we think we're more than enough in giving both PD-1 and TGF-beta [indiscernible].
Marc from TD Cowen. Maybe as you're clearing safety shortly for the G12D combo, is that really all you need to finalize the design and start the process of finalizing the regulators and initiating the Phase III? Or do you think you need a pretty good sense of what the efficacy looks like of that combination and the patient numbers that might be needed to get to that?
So let me see if I can clarify this because I think it's a very important point, right, because of the competitive intensity in this case. We're not standing still waiting for this data. The team is preparing with FDA we are moving forward. What we're doing is tracking the data and see where that rolls out and see if we need to change that decision, if possible. So the planning for first-line pancreatic cancer study is ongoing. The interaction with the FDA will happen in the near term. We'll show the data, show the design. The thesis that combining a 12D inhibitor with chemotherapy in pancreatic cancer and first cancer, I don't need a lot of data to follow that signal, right?
I mean it's a relatively obvious thing to do when you think about it. But obviously, we want safety, we want a good number of patients. We're going to show the FDA that we've done our diligence, and we want to see the durability of the cohort that ECA showed to confirm that we have indeed a good durability of those responses. All that is going in parallel. And once we have the green light, we'll accelerate the process.
And then maybe on the TGF-beta program, as mentioned, both FOLFOX and FOLFIRI are used depends on I think the slide said you're moving forward with FOLFOX combination in first line. Is that -- am I over-interpreting that you're not going to do first-line FOLFIRI? And then is there some sort of synergistic or safety reason that's driving that decision?
We tested both combinations just in planning. Both are combinable, both were tolerable. We chose the FOLFOX as its most commonly used regimen in first line.
It was just to keep the study simple, to be honest with you. But we could do both if necessary. And we decided to second line, as you know, was in first line to second line. So we have -- we will have that data necessary. Anyone else in the room?
Okay. Great. So we will switch to some online questions. So the first is regarding the G12D program specifically, can you remind us of how many of the responses for G12D program at 600 and 1,200 doses were confirmed versus unconfirmed? I got the question a couple of times online.
So it's an excellent question. Let me point out a couple of things before I give you the exact number. So one of the challenges with the data set was very transparent presented the data was it's a relatively immature data set. Half the patients had only one scan you add one scan, there's no way you can be confirmed by definition, no matter how good the response is. So we look at the subset of patients that had 2 scans or discontinued due to progression or any other factor.
So that's the truly evaluable patient population, either 2 scans or discontinue before the second scan. Three of those are confirmed responses, 2 are confirmable, meaning there are PRs that are still on therapy to be confirmed and there are 3 stable diseases, 2 at 29%, 1 at 22% tumor shrinkage that obviously could become PRs. What tells you is the response rate that we presented and all the information is in the waterfall chart, you have the number of scans at the bottom, you have the hours telling which one is ongoing.
All the information is presented clearly. But obviously, an immature data set needs time for the confirmations to come in. And that's part of the data that we will continue to follow to continue the decision-making process that I described earlier.
Great. I know you spoke about this briefly during the presentation, but given the high ADA rate with 890, what gives you confident that this will not impact long-term efficacy? Well, confidence comes from the number of patients we treated at 900 milligram, and we have assessed PK in after several cycles of treatment, and there was no effect on [indiscernible] at 900 milligram, [indiscernible].
We also characterize the [indiscernible] neutralizing effect on the binding of the antibody and no effect on.
Our next question is, would you consider combining 890 with 734 in MSS CRC patients who also have a G12C mutation. It seems like a unique opportunity specifically for.
Already started. That combination has already started. We're doing dose escalation. We will have that data in just a few months. I think the first dose cohort. So we agree it's an excellent idea, and we're the only company that has both programs in the same place. So that work is taking place right now.
Great. Now related to 890, can you talk about your plan the 900-milligram dose of the bispecific given it's on the higher end of the RDE level. Can you comment on the efficacy and safety profile you observed at 1,200 milligrams with that? And how does that change the level of confidence in the therapeutic window?
1,500, we exceed MTD. We treated a few patients at 1,200, but then we chose 900 based on the emerging data on -- there were no DLTs at 1,200. But because of the ongoing events at 1,200 milligram, there were some severe adverse events that are described in the presentation. We deescalated and we went forward with 900 milligram. Also at this time, the ADA and PK data came in at 900. There was no efficacy associated with higher dose, so there was no explorponsee indicating that we had to go higher. So we basically decided to move forward 900igram.
I mean more likely than not, I think it's pretty clear. This is a PD-1 better, a PD-1 inhibitor with TGFK receptor 2 antibody. And the dose response for efficacy is likely to be flat. As Patrick mentioned, we have full target engagement at lower doses. The reason to push the dose was to make sure that ADA did not impact the PK as a result of the efficacy of the drug. So that's why the 900 dose was selected. This again, and I think the discussion said it very well today in the KRAS section was a multipart decision-making for the dose selection, including efficacy, safety, PK and PD and the understanding of the target engagement that we needed.
For the G12C inhibitor, will you prioritize chemo combination versus monotherapy? And in what setting would you pursue would you consider as a monotherapy in PDA?
Not at this time. Not at this time. And the reason is we want to focus -- laser focus on the first-line program, pending some of the data points that we just discussed -- we're going to go fast in first-line PDAC in combination with 2 types of chemotherapy. We think second line, our competitors are far ahead of us. And the market opportunity is much smaller because a lot of the patients with pancreatic progress, unfortunately, never progress to second-line therapy. So at this point, we'll continue to generate the data that you heard Eka, and we'll update you on those results, but we have no plans to initiate the second-line registrational trial with the G12 pancreatic.
Great. I just want to also check if there's additional questions in the room. Okay. We have 2 more online. So -- so for our bispecific, I want to understand from your perspective, how does that compare to showing 70% partial response and 43% stable disease with no cardiac [indiscernible].
Yes. The first point I would make on the back end of that question, which is the safety. We have not seen cardiac events at the recommended dose for expansion. That was seen at the 1,500-milligram dose. So I don't think that is a difference really. I think we have twice the single-agent activity that we showed in terms of responses, which I think positions us very well to be competitive. So at this point, while the data continues to emerge, we think that the fact that we have a high single-agent activity, the combinability with chemotherapy and the safety profile that Eka detailed, I think we have a very good opportunity for recently some of our competitors that point.
This question was asked earlier just come up a couple of times for the specifically. So maybe we could talk again about our confidence in the 1,200-milligram dose moving forward and how we think this compares to RevMed that has shown 22% lower.
Well, let's start with the safety side. So there are 2 data sets from RevMed, and we should just focus on. I mean there's a lot of competitors in this space. I mean everybody's mind seems to be. Dan has shown 22% and 29% in third and second-line PDAC. That is in all RAS mutations. I have not seen recently a breakdown by 12D versus B, the 2 most common pancreatic cancer mutations. So let's keep that in mind. The data for the 12D selective inhibitor is better. I have not seen what plans they have for that molecule.
The pan-RAS is moving. Obviously, the second-line trial is almost done in terms of enrollment. The first line, they said openly, we're not going to combine FOLFIRINOX. They're combining with GEMNabP. I pointed out the dose intensive GEMNabP seems to be compromised in the regimen, and I don't think it's the case without. And the fact that we can combine with FOLFIRINOX in a tolerable manner, we'll have that confirmation in a couple of weeks, but looks to be that way, we think opens that entire door for us. We basically make this a broadly applicable intervention in patients with first-line pancreatic cancer.
And then also related to today, can you compare and contrast your G12D data with the GFH375 monotherapy data for the G12D inhibitor and [indiscernible]? And what key differences do you see between the respective patient population?
Yes. I can't comment on the patient population. I think my first reaction with that is the myelosuppression. Clearly, the activity was very interesting. I mean the response rate was high. I think it was 40%, 41% was reported today. But there was quite a bit of neutropenia. I mean it may not be high-grade neutropenia, but when you combine with a regimen that's first myelosuppressive like Gem or FOLFIRINOX, I think that could be complicated. So I see -- I have no idea what the plans are, but I see that as a strong play in second line, whether you can combine with full dose chemotherapy first line, we look forward to seeing that data.
Great. And any final questions in the room? All right. Back to you, Pablo, for closing remarks.
Thank you very much, everyone, for coming. Thank you to the 100-plus people that were online. We look forward to continue to update you in those exciting programs, and have a great rest of the meeting and safe travel home. Thank you.
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Incyte — Special Call - Incyte Corporation
Incyte — Special Call - Incyte Corporation
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Zwei Phase‑I‑Programme zeigen klares Proof‑of‑Concept: INCA890 (TGF‑βR2×PD‑1 bispezifisch) erbringt Single‑Agent‑Responses in MSS‑Kolonkarzinom, auch bei Lebermetastasen; der KRAS G12D‑Inhibitor liefert in frühem Pankreaskarzinom hohe Ansprechraten und rasche ctDNA‑Senkungen bei beherrschbarer Toxizität.
⚡ Strategische Highlights
- Fokus & Dosen: INCA890 RDE 900 mg i.v. q2w; G12D RDE 1.200 mg p.o. Mechanistisch zielt INCA890 kontext‑selektiv auf PD‑1+ Tumor‑infiltrierende Lymphozyten ('dock‑and‑block'), um systemische TGF‑β‑Toxizität zu vermeiden. Kombinationsprogramme mit FOLFOX+Bevacizumab (INCA890) sowie Gem/Abraxane und mFOLFIRINOX (G12D) laufen.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- What’s new: INCA890: 16 Responses bei ~105 auswertbaren MSS‑CRC‑Patienten (viele mit Lebermetastasen). G12D: in der präsentierten Kohorte 34% ORR und 86% DCR (54 auswertbar), ctDNA‑Reduktionen unterstützten Dosiswahl. Phase‑III‑Plan für INCA890 (1L mCRC, PFS‑Endpunkt) geplant für Anfang 2026; G12D‑Registrierung abhängig von Durabilitätsdaten.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Kernaussagen Q&A: Analysten hoben Priorisierung (von CDK2 zu TGF‑β/G12D), Konkurrenzlage bei G12D (Vergleich zu pan‑RAS/anderen Kandidaten) und Kombinierbarkeit mit FOLFIRINOX hervor. Kritische Punkte: GI‑Toxizität bei G12D, Myokarditis bei INCA890 1.500 mg, hohe ADA‑Rate (~78%)—aber kein PK‑Impact bei 900 mg. Nachfrage nach bestätigter Daueransprechrate (DOR) und Timing weiterer Kombinationsdaten.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: INCA890 ist ein First‑in‑class‑Kandidat mit registrierungsreifer Strategie in 1L MSS‑mCRC; G12D zeigt bestechende frühe Aktivität in PDAC. Entscheidend für Anleger sind nun Durabilität der Antworten, Kombinations‑Tolerabilität und zügige Ausführung der Phase‑III‑Pläne.
Incyte — ESMO Congress 2025
1. Management Discussion
We're going to get started. Thank you, everyone, for joining us here in Berlin. And there are many more of you that are online are welcome to the [indiscernible] tumor update that we're having at ESMO 2025. We're very excited about 2 programs that we're going to talk about today. We're going to focus on 2 solid tumor programs. Our TGFBR2xPD-1 bispecific and our KRAS G12D inhibitor.
Data for both programs was presented here at ESMO. One of them was presented in priced earlier today. We will be making forward-looking statements and let me walk you through the agenda that we have from today. We have 3 members of our team that will walk you through the biologic rationale for our bispecific.
Patrick Mayes, our CSO, will do that. Ekaterine Asatiani, Head of Early
Development. Will talk about the 2 programs of the 2 data sets for TGF-beta for G12D and Steven Stein, our Chief Medical Officer, will walk here about the future plans for these 2 programs.
We'll have plenty of time for questions, and we'll be able to address as many of those as you have. So we're going to focus on 2 programs, but equally important is we're going to focus on 2 tumor types today for the purpose of this update. For our TGFBR2xPD-1, we're going to focus on NSS colorectal cancer.
As you know, this is 80%, 85%, maybe sometimes 90% of the cases with colorectal cancer continues to be an acute medical need because it doesn't respond to PD-1 inhibitors for checkpoint inhibitors. In fact, 4 trials were done in the early days of checkpoint and developing in these patients, and the response rate was 03 of the trials and 2% in the male studies.
These patients present very frequently with the metastases likely happens with metastatic colorectal cancer and the biology and the compatible locking some of this is heavily enriched for TGF Beta. In some of the more recent immunotherapies have been trialing in the special population have also been largely successful, particularly and bring your attention to this, and Eka will talk about it, particularly for patients that have liver metastases, which are, of course, more than half the patients.
The second tumor of interest for today is pancreatic or personal feedback for our G12D program. We recognize this remains a very competitive area of our development is increasingly competitive. G12D is the most strong mutational special population importantly, these patients do have a worse prognosis on multi patients.
So that's becoming very clear now and we're focusing on the development in this popular issue. Now I would highlight that there is no character, not only none of them are approved, but there's no G12D inhibitor in pivotal trials in pancreatic cancer today.
There's a wind of opportunity for us to move in an accelerated way for this disease with a G12D inhibitor.
Very important, as you think about first-line therapy in patient with pancreatic cancer is the ability to combine a: G12D inhibitor with chemotherapy. This is not just about the activity of the molecule or a single agent with the combined ability with both main types of chemotherapy in this disease [indiscernible] and modifiers. You need to be able to cover both in order to address the entire population in first-line therapy.
And we're moving in that space, and I cell give you an update there. Just to walk you real quick about the framework that we use to make decisions with this program and other programs, but for the 2 programs we're talking about today. So the first part is on to establish single-agent activity. You've seen during this meeting, and we'll get more data today about the single-digit activity of our TGFBR2xPD-1 bispecific and the KRAS G12D. So that part -- and you've seen the safety profile, we're very pleased with -- so that part is almost is our single engine. They have single vision activity and they're tolerable at the recommended dose for expansion.
We need to demonstrate our earlier response, we have that data for TGFBR2xPD-1
And Eka show it. We are following the patients in the 12 program to establish whether the durability of the responses are. The third part is to combine and as I mentioned, standard of care, in both cases, that chemotherapy and the TGFBR2xPD-1. Bispecific will be fall for [indiscernible]. We've done that work. Eka will walk you through it. And for a detail being every mentioned 2 types of hemotherapy that work is being completed as we speak. So we're moving this in that direction.
And the fourth thing we did is that the words the most acute medical need, where can we have the biggest impact for patients and over time for the business, and that is in [indiscernible] combination of hemotherapy. So that's our focus for us for these 2 programs. we're not ruling out other investments in other areas, but those are the 2 areas that we're really going to have a more intense focus.
With that, I'm going to stop here. Patrick Mace can come up and walk us through the biology and how we designed our bispecific I mean why is this unique pro to dress TGF-beta biology, which arguably is the second-most important mechanism of rebalance from tumors other than PD-1 PDL-1 access. Eka will follow with the updates on the clinical data for beta program under 12.
So going to overview our first-in-class bispecific and targeting TGF-beta R2 and PD-1. We'll refer to this as INCA and Europe. So this is what we're going to discuss. I'll take you through a bit of the importance of TGF-beta in the solid tumor microenvironment, why it is such a [indiscernible] factor and why we believe targeting with stack is going to be so important in these to types and then I'll tell you a bit about the fundamentally different approach we've taken at Incyte in targeting this biology. What we're doing is distinct from what others have tried to this space before. should get a bit of preclinical data, but
I'll refer you back to a presentation we made at ACR 2023, which is a much more comprehensive characterization of the molecule. So further to the full profile of the molecule. And then Eka will walk you [indiscernible] So TGF-beta is a potent immunosuppressive factor in solid tumors. It acts directly on T cells. It binds to T cells and it inhibits their function and their proliferation.
You can see this in the graph on the left hand of the slide here in blue is T cells that have been induced to proliferate, increasing concentration of TD on the occasion habit that from pattern.
We can take T cells, then we can treat them with a PD-1 antibody as shown in red, 1 induces proliferation of T cells produce our activation [indiscernible] is a dominant factor, right? Even in the presence of a PD-1 antibody, TGF-Beta inhibits the proliferation of those cells. So it speaks to the importance of TGF-beta and even in the setting of a [indiscernible] Within the solid like our environment, high levels of TGF-beta are associated with an immune excluding [indiscernible] This is where immune cells are present in the tumor, but they're excluded from direct contact with tumor cells. They're stuck in the tumor stroma. They're only able to for productive synapses with tumor cells and elicit that antitumor immunity. What we know is that the immune escudo phenotype in addition to high levels of TGF-beta associated with PD-1 nonresponse in the solid tumor microenvironment.
So together with Teva, we looked at TGF biology, a cross-sell and tumors. This is an analysis of 16 different cell tumor types that we looked at. We looked at 2 different factors in this particular plot that I've ever shown here on the bottom right. First TGFBR2 expression on the x-axis. And then we looked at a TGF-beta gene signature that's associated with T cells, this is on a line axis.
And these 2 factors we looked at in various solid tumors, we can see a high enrichment for TGF-beta of all solid tumors, in particular, MSS colorectal is highly enriched for TGF-ated biology. So because of the importance of this biology, multiple attempts have been made at targeting this pathway in solid tumors, not has yet to be successful correctly.
And you can bucket these approaches into 2 broad categories as to how they've been engineered. Versus agents which target the receptors directly. So they have TGFBR2, it forms a hetero complex with TGFBR1, and that's how the signaling occurs, you could say antibody approaches have been attempted targeting TGFBR2 monoclonal antibodies have failed in toxicity.
Likewise, small molecule inhibitors of TGFBR1, inhibiting the kinase domain, which signals downstream have been tried and have failed because of toxicity cost with the approach. It is an important factor in roll tissues around buy and I think the narrow therapeutic index associated with draconian systemic. So more recent approaches have worked upstream of the receptor to try to minimize the toxicity associated with broad innovation.
These approaches can be characterized as agents which target the processing of ligand or the engagement of ligand, which we're setting, either using a trap or a monopoly. These approaches can be characterized as being partial inhibitors of TGF-beta.
This is what gives them the therapeutic index necessary to be able to dose in beans. But this partial inhibition profile has yet to be successful in terms of eliciting efficacy in cancer. So the approach we've taken is different is distinct from what others have track here. We're taking a sale targeted approach where we are targeting TGFBR2 on tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes and potent completely inhibiting that signal on those sets.
Plus having full activity on the cell type of interest and avoiding the systemic toxicity associated with [indiscernible] inhibition.
So how do we achieve this cell-targeted approach? We have generated a 1-by-1 bispecific antibody, and we're utilizing a dock-and-block mechanism of action here. The first thing we did was to engineer a very high affinity PD-1 binding arm for the antibody.
This binds to inhibit PD-1 and all PD-1 positive cells be by. We then engineer and tune the TGFBR2 arm in a way that it allows for potent and complete inhibition of TGFBR2 only in the context of when the PD-1 on of the antibody is brew. No inhibition of TGF-beta signaling is occurs on cells that do not have a PD-1 expression. Thus avoiding the toxicity associated with broad PGF data by inhibition environment. An example of this selectivity shown here on the graph on the left, this is an example of a cell line that has TGFR expression with no PD-1 expression. The control for this experiment is in blue. This is a monoclonal antibody targeting TGFBR2. It inhibits completely the signaling TGF-beta pathway, be a [indiscernible] whereas the bispecific Sorin Red has almost no signal inhibition in this context. If you look on this is a isogenic system, the only change being made in this cell is the introduction of PD-1 expression on the right. The control looks the same.
You see potent complete inhibition of TGF beta signaling, whereas in this context, the aspecific antibody has completed a mission to pathway even to a greater extent than the mono.
So in summary, we have a potential first-in-class specific here. This is a context-dependent inhibitor of TGF-beta signaling in tumor infiltrate imposed. We believe there's a strong rationale for this agent in tumor types where TGF-beta is highly rich.
This includes a number of tumor effects where new checkpoint inhibitors have not been approved that are not used, such as ovarian cancer and NSS colorectal cancer, which we'll talk about today.
But we believe this also has a PD-1 competitor approach and potential in tumor terms where ICI is approved, PD-1 is used and this provides the opportunity to expand the response missing those to types as well.
So I will stop here and pass it over to Eka.
So I now switch to clinical data that was presented on Friday as Pablo mentioned. So this is a schematic of a Phase I trial presented those escalations were done in selected tumor types from 100 milligrams to 1,500 given every 2 weeks file. We also casted 900-milligram [indiscernible] We arrive at 3 recommended doses for extension and randomized patients with selected tumor types. Those were selected based on the TGF-beta signature that Patrick mentioned.
The biggest enrichment was for colorectal cancer, it is biggest group of patient with MSS cretacancer in this expansion. In [indiscernible] we also tested selected tumor types in combination regimens. This focus with standard of care relevant for colorectal cancer, such as FOLFOX + bevacizumab, FOLFIRI + bevacizumab,
Bevacizumab, cetuximab. Now dose escalation with 950 milligrams has been completed, and now we are in reaching and enrolling more patients in expansion for works. Particularly with FOLFOX + bevacizumab, to support the Cidade Phase III trial.
So this is baseline demographics and characteristics of 260 patients that were treated in monotherapy cohort as of July 25. This is strictly a mature data set, 52 patients are still ongoing. Majority have discontinued. It should be noted that discontinuations due to treatment-related adverse events were extremely rare on the 4.6% of patients discontinued due to adverse events.
The other thing I want to note here that it's a very advanced patient population. As you can see on the bottom of the slide, there is 3 months from initial diagnosis, multiple lines of therapies were given to these patients is median of 3 and range of [indiscernible] Again, biggest set is in MSS colorectal with 114 patients treated for this.
Safety summary. So we escalated doses up until 1,500 milligrams without DLTs 1,500-milligram exceeded maximum tolerated dose. There was an other myocarditis, but there were also other severe immune-related adverse events of those endocrine and CNS events in major cycles at this dose level, and we've stopped enrolling patients at the dose level and extended those levels developed.
So 300, 600 and 900 were extended, and that's the data set I want to focus and present. It should be noted that treatment-related adverse events and grade 3 that were very big. This compares very favorably to approved checkpoint inhibitors there were especially 900 milligrams of large 100 patients, we had very few great advents in single-digit percentages. Very few serious treatment-related adverse events.
There were few treatment delays and only 2 patients discontinued due to adverse events. When we look at the immune-related adverse events as reported by taking investigators, they gain 5% rate events. We also looked at infusion reactions. There were some inclusion reactions of grade 4, 2 events, 1 leading to discontinuation, other ones is a challenge. Those happen at lower doses. Once the above training of the sites on infusion rates and premedications, secondary prophylaxis for premedication dose events reduced and there are no grade 3 or higher events at 100 milligrams.
A bit more review of safety profile treatment-related adverse event is decreasing frequency and 5% cap again, [indiscernible] reticent related adverse events are mostly in toxicities. In [indiscernible] for also in antenna increase in 9.
Here, we have a slide describing pharmacokinetics and entire drug antibodies, very favorable and typical, I would say, for a specific antibody there is some segment mediated product distribution at the lower doses, we did have anhydroantibodies in 78% of patients but they did not affect PK, so it did not affect concentration at 900 milligrams in large corporate patients that we have.
We also did analysis of ABA versus adverse idents and ADA versus efficacy, and there is no correlation there. I did not also correlate these inclusion reactions. We did clear biopsies and evaluated, among other things CD8 cells, and there was increase in cycle to day 15 on fitness and this extent of this increase correlated with the efficacy in reach for efficacy in responders versus nonresponders.
And finally, efficacy data. So here, we focus on MSS colorectal cancer. We have 105 patients treated and a RP those 3 go to levels that I listed before. Now this was heavily pretreated for patient population. So 93% of those patients received this treatment as third line and beyond.
So they had 2 prior lines of therapy. 70% have active liver and metastases. And those were large active assets I will show a couple of representative cases.
16 of those patients responded and most surprisingly, I must say for myself have a prelim personally has never been reported before that those patients is never on a cash, which is also ahead of responses. So 9 out of 16 have active liver metastasis and 7 have moderate.
There was no correlation of those versus efficacy that we could tease out from here, which is again a surprising for immunotherapy, duration of treatment or 7.3 months and I'll show you next slide, a swimmer plots for patients is for stronger basically.
And you can see that these are consumer responses in major occupation. The bottom summer is not continued, but ongoing, so consumable, and there is another one that discontinued people confirmation, but the rest of them are constrained responses. Now I should note here also that there is this 1 patient that discontinued early due to actually low-grade supported increase and continue to have response for 1 year.
So 3 months were a distant generation. quite striking response in this station. This is a 73-year-old gentleman with Stage 4 MSS colorectal cancer with multiple this surround the cathode along also 1 assesses the station had prior gold Boxer and for retreatment was treated at models at 300 milligrams and achieved for at 28 weeks and considering that 32 weeks and remain on treatment for another year.
And you can see how big is never metrics not small liver vision. These are clinically relevant, a simile active big lesions that drove shrinkage. So we have this target vision measured and also their non-target pacer relations with aloha. And as a case, again, patients with prior 2 lines -- actually 4 lines of therapy here, Polo Bar and porphyrin some additional, including investigational agents treated a 900-milligram at chip CRs and confirm that 16 weeks and core is still on site 10 miles plus.
Again, big labor vision strengthened. I think it's very illustrative of lot observed in those patients. Now we also saw responses and efficacy in other tumor pipes, where we would not expect immunotherapies to more. Among them in patients that have been previously treated with immunotherapies as you can see, here in green blue, we have patients that have received a prior checkpoint inhibitors. We have responders among [indiscernible] and as well as non-small cell lung cancer patient pretty impressive responses in ovarian cancer patients. And we have also marked the patients here that have very low PD-L1 staining of less than one CPS score and amounts those patients as well, we have some responders.
So this data kind of increases our confidence that this biology is Patrick describe has proof of concept, strong proof of concept with clinical efficacy in tumor types that would otherwise not respond to immunotherapy and also coupled with very favorable safety profile. So based on this, we started combinations relevant for earlier line therapy in colorectal cancer.
So we have now cleared in dose escalation cohort of patients for bevacizumab and book both period elacizumab, avacizumab and cetuximab. We are currently enrolling a larger coco focusing on FOLFOX and detacizumab in preparation of supporting Phase III trial with additional safety data. combination looks good.
There is no overlapping toxicity that we could ease out from patients ticket so far. So to conclude, 900-milligram is selected as a recommended dose. It's a favorable PK profile -- there is very little effect of both AP or actually no effect of APA or TK [indiscernible] There are responses observed in MSS colorectal.
Cancer patients, including 1 with active liver metastases. And currently, we are preparing Phase III trials that Stephen is going to describe in a minute.
I will switch now to KRAS G12D inhibitor. The key takeaways here. So we all know that PRS is one of the most common driver on the genes relevant in solid tumors and G12D is the most relevant one and most common one, from an isoform. We have inhibitor, which is potent and selective.
It's one of inhibitor. And hopefully, today, I'll be able to convince you that we have a potential to be the first selective G12D selective therapy for G12D compare to cancers.
So presorting cancer. Again, it's a molecular blotters proteins, molecular switches that control multiple signal cascades that promote cellular proliferation and survival. This is home is most common mutation more relevant in pancreatic cancer, it's close to 40% of patients having 4D mutation, also in one cell lung cancer and 15% of colorectal cancer. Our digital confers for prognosis. In terms of response to chemotherapy, also of our survival.
And when compared to wild time, KRAS [indiscernible], but also other dial G12 isoform. We compare to other KRAS patients it confers for prognosis.
So this is the data that was presented by Patrick Group in 2024. We have G12D inhibitor, which binds KRAS protein, the incident exit bonds as they switch to pocket and it's higher concentration. So it is taken, it is also selective with more than 84 selectivity in different and we can see some of them on the right side of this slide.
We have presented a number of preclinical data in Zenara syngeneic tumor models, and this was all in the poster at AACR 2024. So I today with the clinical data that was actually presented the scientific podium this afternoon. So this is from the CS1 trial, where we conducted dose escalation in G12D tumors. From 200 milligrams to 1,600 milligram QD. We've also tested twice a day regimen with 600 milligrams twice a day.
In parallel, we did additional exploration in PD cohort 2 dose levels, 600 milligrams and 1000 milligrams with biposies. We did some put-in effect work, which enabled us to administered right now with food.
And we selected to those levels, 600-milligram and 100-milligram and randomized patients, which is 2 dose levels, in these patients, the largest cohort we have is in pancreatic cancer and also colorectal cancer and additional work is ongoing in other tumor products.
And then we further reached 400 milligrams, which we selected Alphos 2 RB extensions and focusing on second one third cancer now.
We also tested combinations with chemotherapy regimens for pancreatic cancer, both commonly used chemotherapy regimens, general rexine and for norms. We also actually combined was TGF data for PD-1 or specific and currently, the presale level is evolving. So this is a patient disposition in baseline characteristics as of August 1 [indiscernible] We have enrolled 138 patients on monotherapy the largest group here again is pancreatic cancer with patients followed by colorectal cancer.
Now this is less mature data set. So more than half of the patients are still ongoing. 75 patients are still on treatment. I should note here that there are no toxicity induced dose discontinuation.
So no patient has discontinued signature to other adverse events. Very heavily pretreated population with multiple prior lines of therapy. So focus here again is on pancreatic cancer. And as you can see in this data set in the 83 patients treated every dose levels.
Only 13 we are second in patients major were third line and plus safety profile, no Deltic were, we arrived at all the way up to 150 nearly 1,600 milligrams to sell any MTD was never reached However, we stopped those escalation and decided to extend 600 milligrams and 400 milligrams based on emerging PK and PD at a go here in a minute.
So once again, I would like to mention that no patients discontinued treatment due to treat across events. The most common is maturated adverse events leading to those reductions, where nausea, decreased appetite in it.
Majority of [indiscernible] were Grade 1 and Grade 2. And I will show it on the next slide in a bit more granular way. So these are treatment-related adverse events with a frequency of 5% and above in decreasing incidents. As you can see, the DRI toxicities on the top of the list, that majority of those cases are grading.
So 15% or rate on. Very few Grade 2 and get events including nausea, diarrhea and booking density, which are the common ones. We've also looked actually at our database looking for miles suppression, skin toxicity, et cetera, there are isolated cases that there is no signal.
We do not observe it in long term. Here, there is a PK profile, focusing on 2 dose levels, 600 and 1,200 to go dose levels at steady state cover 95, more consistently a 1,200-milligram higher those. And also when we look at ctDNA change from baseline in pancreatic cancer patients there was deeper and prefer reduction at higher dose.
So that's why we selected 1,200 milligram, the dose to move forward. And this deep reductions in Citizen also for recites clinical responses. We actually did this, which we were complimented today. We didn't wear time during dose escalation, and it really helped us with dose escalation of selection of the rates. And here is efficacy slides of waterfall plots.
I'm going to take time to walk through this slide slowly. So I say for a minute. So it's a busy slide and we show a lot of things here that could be as transparent as possible. So we have water whole plot with the scans in pipe patients. but we include in our denominator, all patients that were accretive and discontinued treatment or had at least 1 scan.
So 54 patients included in divine Second, a majority of those patients received treatment and [indiscernible], there are only 9 patients that were treated as a second-line nested in this population.
And third point I want to make is that majority of those patients only had 1 stand, and many of them are still ongoing. 7 out of those 54 only had once again. And we know from other G12D and best actually responses can take place on a second and subsegments.
So with all of this said, we have 34% response rate and high distal rate of 86%. Illustrated case here.
So this 69-year-old gentlemen with Stage IV colorectal cancer was diagnosed in last year 2024, extensive net level peritoneal, which usually doors previously progressed on bofirinox and received this treatment 100-milligram received treatment result interruptions, have deep reduction of disease, including the primary tumor, which is actually harder to treat really the primary pancreatic lesions do not respond as well.
With this station has a large reduction of pancratic mass and was achieved then on 2 subserves assess then on 2 segment scans and I had a confirmation of PR on 24 weeks and as segment still continues as of today, we continue so in conclusion, we have a molecule that has eligible toxicity profile by tolerable we have selected a dose now based on CTMA, PK coverage ops target.
We have very promising early clinical efficacy still concern durability of responses. We have combined with 2 different therapy regimens, general taxane and modified for FOLFIRINOX. GenAbraxAne has finished those escalations are extending. And for FOLFIRINOX, they are still waiting for completion of the DLT evaluation period for the last couple of patients, and we plan to expand this as well.
With this, I hand it to Seven to discuss next months.
Thank you, Eka, Patrick, Pablo. The reason I'm standing here, it's important in that you can see we're about to go into the next phase of development. So I'll outline the why behind that, and then we'll invite everybody up here for Q&A.
So just to go back to the framework that Pablo gave you upfront and reset it based on the data you just saw. So if you look at the framework in terms of establishing single-agent activity and a safety profile, both for TGF-beta and for KRAS G12D, you saw the efficacy signals given to you in the monotherapy data safety profile. For the TGF-beta, you saw mostly IR-related as and a DLT at 1,500, which is not the dose we'll be taken forward.
And for the 12 profile, you saw the GI safety profile. In terms of monotherapy, single-agent activity for both, you saw what is striking single-agent activity for TGF-beta in microsatellite colorectal cancer, particularly for the liver metastasis, which is unprecedented in terms of IO therapies and for 12, I'll just paraphrase to discuss them today at the session, we said remarkable activity and potentially the best single-agent activity seen in PDAC with a 12D directed agent to date.
Durability of response demonstrated with TGFBR2 was becoming common with biotherapies is once patients respond, those responses are very long, and you saw duration of therapy for the majority of patients greater than 24 weeks.
One could argue that for the KRAS 12D, we still have to wait a bit longer to see durability of response, which is obviously what we will be doing before triggering a registration program.
The profile in compliance with standard of care is ongoing now, as Dick alluded to, but we cleared the initial safety hurdles in terms of -- and very importantly, for the 12D compound, we've demonstrated that both for gemcitabine and for modified for FOLFIRINOX.
Why is that important? If you look at real-world use of these regimens in first-line pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, it's about 50-50. So we feel it's very important to be able to combine potentially with both chemotherapy regimens.
And then lastly, this is a clear medical need in very large tumor types, quantitative. These are enormous problems across the world in massive unmet need in terms of microsatellite colorectal cancer and pancreatic ductal costs in them. Let's go back to microsatellite stable colorectal cancer. It is one of the most common cancers seen worldwide. It's a leading cause of cancer there. In fact, if you look at the United States, Western Europe, Japan, there's nearly 2 million people diagnosed with colorectal cancer and about 400-mile north of 100,000 of those of Stage 4 metastatic patients.
Unfortunately, the long-term survival for patients with Stage 4 metastatic microsatellite stable colorectal cancer, dismal, 16% 5-year survival.
And as both Pablo and Eka pointed out immunotherapies in microsatellite petorectal cancer little to no activity and particularly in patients with liver metastasis that's become almost a clinical marker of the lap of irresponsive. Hence, that very important signals seen in patients with liver metastasis.
The standard of care in the first-line setting in terms of chemotherapy is FOLFOX [indiscernible] FOLFOX EGR but the FOLFOX Bet regimen is used regardless of RAS status, whether you're mutant to [indiscernible] regardless of the excitedness of the tumor, whether you left or right side of.
The EGFR combo use mostly elected tumors and is more commonly used in Europe. FOLFOX response rates for the chemotherapy regimens of the 50% to 60% range, PFS, 8 months, top end 11 months and overall survival 30 months. Speaking to the massive unmet medical need in population.
As Patrick showed you, TGF-beta expression is extremely high in the tumor microenvironment to microsatellite colorectal cancer and is probably outside of PD-L1 expression, the dominant marker of T cell and responsiveness. So there's an opportunity here to establish a novel regimen in first-line microsatellite colorectal cancer that build on the current most common standard of care, which is VEGF combined with the chemotherapy. FOLFOX [ bet ] it's a broad population, independent of a status independent of sidedness and reminder that about 70% of patients have liver metastasis. In terms of by diagnosis, this covers 85% of the population with the other 15% made up of the microsatellite high, some [indiscernible] tumors and then obviously, other biomarkers ice but 85% would be covered by this regimen potentially.
So we are we have durable single-agent activity, a manageable target profile demonstrated by Ecodata set in late-line microsatellite patients. The responses are observed both in patients with and without liver metastasis.
And the profile thus far provides an opportunity for a combination in first-line microsatellite colorectal cancer with the standard care chemotherapy with some ongoing safety work going.
To be clear, we're planning the initiation of it's peak now of a Phase III registrational program in early 2026, in first-line microsatellite metastatic colorectal patients in combination with standard of care.
We're aligned with regulators on the schema and the primary endpoint of progression-free survival.
So turning to pancreatic utendocosimum. This is probably the most Rastedicative cancer with no targeted therapies for a specific mutation, [indiscernible] patients with a rapidly progressive disease with extremely high mortality, less than a 10% 5-year survival.
Again, in Western Europe, North America and Japan, 210,000 patients of which greater than 90% carrier expectation of which 40% of those had a 12D mutation. First and second line metastatic treatment is limited to combination of single-agent hemotherapy. But because of the severity of the disease and the lack of tolerability of the regimens upfront in these stations, most patients do not make it to second line regimens.
Chemotherapy is associated with many grade 3 and 4 toxicities, particularly minor suppression as well as neuropathies. And the care standard, as I said upfront, is argued between gem/abraxane versus modified port probably split 50-50 with some regional differentiation there. response rates in the 20% to 40% range, medium PFS 5.5 to 8 months and an overall survival of 8.5 to 11.7 months with those chemotherapy regimens. So where are we with that FASB in pancreatic adenocarcinoma.
Again, a solid proof of concept as speakers said today, remarkable activity and maybe probably the best data seen in the 12D mutated patients to date. 12D mutations are known to carry worse prognosis in other patients with a manageable safety profile in the heavily pretreated population and an ongoing enabling work with the chemotherapy combinations that are important. And again, both gemabraxane, as modified FOLFIRINOX.
We feel we have the first potential target therapy for KRAS-mutated PDAC patients. We'll continue to do the enabling safety work and continue to evaluate the durability of response with this immature based on the data set that Eka showed you today. And we'll be aligning the regulators on the registrational program Pending those will be going into registration in first-line PDA in combination of both chemotherapy regimens also in 2026.
I'll summarize again, large patient population by size significant unmet need, certainly in the cancer setting, probably the most significant unmet need in terms of microsatellite colorectal cancer and pancreatic adenocarcinoma.
And again, to reiterate the importance -- for us to go into first line to make the most difference for patients in this condition, and we feel that's an important strategic choice that we've made. The TGF-beta bispecific, the efficacy and safety data support that advancements the novel regimen in the broadest population in combination with FOLFOX and bar.
And to reiterate, we will be initiating a Phase III program in early 2026. The 12, probably a little behind, but single-agent activity demonstrated a manageable safety profile, the ongoing enabling work with safety and then the durability that needs to be finally assessed before we trigger the program, but the intent is to start that program as soon as those milestones are achieved and to be the first potential targeted therapy with KRAS stated 12D patients in pancreatic carcinoma.
With that, I'll ask Pablo come up and the other 2 speakers to join us all on the program. Up here, there are about 100 people online. We will first take questions in the room and then move to the online.
Thank you. Patrick, Eka, Seven.
2. Question Answer
So at -- so last year, the focus of bureaucrat was really 1 CDK2 inhibitor, the gynecological cancers this year, you're talking about GB and TGFb. And these data are fantastic. I don't want to deny that. But it seems that the effort is a bit inconsistent. How should I square how you're thinking more broadly about solid tumor development in that 1 year, we're talking about 1 topic next year, we're focused on G12D in pancreatic cancer.
So you're correct. Last year, I focused with CDK2. CDK2 inhibitor program was obviously had we generated efficacy data in ovarian cancer. That program, I would say, is today the most advanced CDK2 inhibitor in development. And we're developing, as we pointed out, in the reg cancer.
I think that the approach that we're taking with these 3 programs just follow the science, quite honestly. In CDK2, we generated data, some baby breast to answer the work hasn't stopped, but it hasn't been the main focus.
Early on, it was obvious that we had responses a lot of stable disease with tidied to implement resistant over answer. So we agreed to chase that signal, which is what we're doing. We've got another combination with balacizumab and our goal in the long run is plug-in sensor [indiscernible]
We're basically maintenance up to first line. We think in patients both chemo bed that need maintenance, which is long duration of therapy for 12, 15, 18 months, in oral molecularly targeted therapy with [ Exensio ] could have a big advantage over the intense competition that continues to emerge in replant for these 2 programs, we once again follow science.
For TGF-beta, as Patrick explained, we had a hint that the biology gave us about the imports of the TGF-beta pathway in particular MSS colorectal in others. Early on, we saw responses in a cut colorectal.
We accelerated development there. We enrolled than 100 patients. We have a very strong efficacy signal and we've done the combination on. I think where the GST inhibitor was the most straightforward, right we knew where to go from the beginning.
In fact, even though it was clear which patients to go after, the pancreatic signal emerge faster than the others, we are doing some work in colorectal. I think we have a unique advantage in EGFR treated colorectal cancer because the ability to combine with cetuximab, which were things in recompeting have difficulty.
So I'll give you a very long answer. I think what we're doing with these programs is we start on scientific principles at the beginning. And then in a disciplined and thorough way, we chase science-driven signals and we make decisions based on the emerging data, and we'll continue to do that.
We're now going to go everywhere all months we are being deliberate in how we take these opportunities in order to use. To have disciplined use of capital, but at the same time, trying to address [indiscernible] Michael?
Michael Schlitt with Guggenheim. On the GB program, I discussed today talked about the GI portability on macule of the others. And just wondering if you could share your insights on from your combination work, but if you're doing chemotherapy .
So let's focus on GI and the comment to the discussion about trispecific, I'm not sure why you focus on that, but maybe you can talk about a little bit more granular on what we're seeing in one.
1,200 milligram is what we're moving forward and enriching with additional patients. We have syngotoxicity, the majority grades cases. Manageable with interia and [indiscernible] there are very few rate cases, no discontinuations due to this. Combination with chemo is ongoing.
We spoke during Gears who tolerated result and DLT so side. We don't have to dose reduce -- we don't have to dose reduce chemo, and we do not have the both with the those.
We have to remember, right, when you look at a certain percentage with a certain grade toxicity diarrhea, that person has one day of [indiscernible] that gets counted automatically there. I think, Brad, gave you more granularities and what I always look for is just a continuation in terms of dose interruptions.
And from that perspective, we're comfortable that this has proven to be a long tolerated driver in these doses and the combination with camera, as we pointed out in the presentation, we're about to clear the dose escalation period whether for [indiscernible]
Salveen Richter, Goldman Sachs. Could you speak to competitive positioning around your KRAS G12D program. As you noted, there's not much of a second line opportunity versus first line that you have revolution medicine with 2 assets here.
So maybe put that in context for us, especially as you think about combining with standard of came .
So KRAS in general with [indiscernible] and so far specific inhibitors, obviously, have become competitive over the past couple of years. When we look at all the data available, we put in 2 or 3 of the presentations today in the last couple of days, we are convinced that when you look for 12 specific patients, mutated patients.
The balance of efficacy and safety that we have is best-in-class. If there's somebody that is comparable, perhaps but we are very comfortable with the tumor reductions that we're seeing in tolerability and now a second the tolerability in combination with chemotherapy.
We can combine with both main types of chemotherapy for oncotic use less remember, the Genmab and FOLFIRINOX 50-50 percent patients. So if you can cover the entire chemotherapy spectrum with a precisely targeted G12D inhibitor, we think that's going to be an advantage.
Now second line, we think that train is that station. That second line study is ongoing. They're going to have rolling to file next year. We expect that to be positive. But as Stephen pointed out, pancratic cancer, the opportunity really is reduced dramatically in second line.
We think that the big opportunity here for patients and for the business is the first lien combination chemo with. So our goal now -- as we continue to live to the emerging data to make sure we're making the right decisions is to move to implement those study, the first-line study as good as possible.
Now if the data changes over the next 6 months, we will act accordingly. But right now, the plan based on what we have today is to move our top responsible to first-line percolation with paper. And we think we can be very, very competitive there.
Reni Benjamin from Citizens. Just question on your framework. When I'm thinking about a listing, I was the comparison of other drugs in development, whether it's drugs currently in development or the ones that are already centered. So kind of curious as to when does that get factored in to that prior.
And then the others, I think, Eka, you were mentioning that the MSS, the gene symmetry that we use -- they're not just sitting up on CRC. I think you said is utilized in the clinical trial as well.
I'm kind of curious how heterogeneous is that gene signature, but was there a correlation response? And could you use it for patients election reaching patients?
[indiscernible] the first one, then Eka and Patrick can answered gene signature. We are constantly monitoring our competitors. And when we look at -- let's take the 2 more, I think I explained our positioning is every competitors for G12D pancreatic cancer. Obviously, we're fully aware of weeding the raise in second line.
And we have a chance to compete in first line, and we take out a very competitive profile. And nothing that I saw in the last couple of days changes in my mind, our competitive positioning for G12D inhibitor feedback. I think for first-line MSS colorectal, there's less activity. The way we look at it is we have unprecedented single-agent response and the forecast [ recliphramiotherapy. ] There's 4 trials in historical evopembo, et cetera. 3 of them had a 0% response rate, 1 of a 2% response rate. We showed 15% response rate to that.
Newer immunotherapies in the same context have shown no responses in patients with liver mets. Nick I'll walk you through the data in patients with liver met. So we think relative to other immunotherapies in development and sensorial we think right now, we have unprecedented single-rig activity.
And the combined with chemotherapy has now been standard. When I look at the broader landscape outside of that, there's other entrants in this space. But I think, again, looking at the single agent activity that we've shown in third, fourth line I would argue we have a best in the disease right now or comparable to some of the best interventions in the disease.
And the goal is to execute as fast as possible to go into first line colorectal point came in fact.
You want to address that in same definition of MSS colorectal to question.
No. It's about the TGF-beta.
So Patrick will have to elaborate that MSS colorectal corrector, which is basically MSI negative, right? So it microsatellite stable corrector cancer. Both high in TGF-beta signature based on the states that we stand the ones to future as well. So we selected patients with MSS colorectal extension cohorts based on this data. We have not strained patients for T2Bacteria, which is central computing their MSS status stands.
Yes. The question is, can we enrich for any markers that would be associated with response. We're looking at a number of exploratory measures included in that is the TGF Gene Signature. We've got Gene signers associated with T cells specifically, other signatures, other factors within the TGF-beta pathway, the blue ligans the receptor itself.
So we're looking at those measures data that was shown on Friday in the presentation was also PDL1. So we saw correlation with response in PL1 greater than 1%. So I think that is another marker. Obviously, that's an asset at used. It's there. That was the association of that song, something we compete -- we just completed for.
We may decide to incorporate some of this in some analysis and is tele to be clear, the study will be no cumbers other than, obviously, patients with certain mutations, wild type right to the left side in the MSS colorectal.
Following up on the this year pro 90. So just you did see some kind of activity across a KRAS mutant patients and other things that you wouldn't want to exclude those in the Phase III. And then are you continuing to explore some of the other tour types that you showed here or did you have some yet.
Let me take the second point about whether we have across a range of indications. We saw the data that we generated so far. I think it's partly said, it's very intriguing, particularly the vein cancer data.
I mean, we sponsor is reading about 28% in alopecia consolation, interesting results in header than that not unexpected interesting results in non-small cell lung cancer. At this point, we're being very deliberate in how we continue to expand this program.
MSS Colorectal is an intense focus we will generate additional data on the tumor types, and we'll make decisions based on that emerging data. But those programs have not been accelerated right now.
The second part.
So we have looked at various mutations website right side is clinical and molecular [indiscernible] for those responses is not responders. What we presented was [indiscernible] as has to be obviously a significant denials. We are not excluding any patients with catenation and that's not planned.
We will explain that alternative first-line therapies which is anything DRAM at the right now this is very small.
Eric Schmidt from Cantor. Two questions quickly on the -- maybe to dive a little bit deeper to Salveen's question, what actually are you trying to solve for with regard to the front-line pancreatic cancer trial out of a world where we do have the KRAS multi-antibiotic is looking to it.
You can look for better safety, better efficacy, better convenience, what happening. And then two, maybe I missed it, was there a PFS data from the chief and pancreatic is that not yet true.
The second real quick. No, the data held mature, we'll have the PFS data over time, and we'll update you all on those results as they emerge. But as Eka mentioned, half the case is only at 1 scan. So we can tell you confident in this period is a tumor shrinkage, the PRs, but we need time to establish durability and that could conceivably , I think it's unlikely based on what we've seen so far.
You can see the change our decision-making. What are we doing solar first line. So look, I think what our colleagues, as you mentioned, that have done is impressive. However, when you look at the second and third-line data. And as Eka mentioned, we had a very advanced patient population with a very small number of second-line patients in that lateral plot.
Their data in third class line was 22% responsive. So we'll see where our response rate lands, but we think we're going to be very competitive and perhaps numerically significantly better than that. So that's point number one. The second is, I think, in part because with the profile of the panRAF inhibitor, when you look at the most recent update, the dose intensive chemotherapy in that combination was 63%, which tells you the compromise in the just of a chemo and they haven't combined with [indiscernible] which as I mentioned, is used by back math population and credit.
That's what we're trying to solve. We're trying to develop a GTB inhibitor that can be used for all patients with 12 mutated PDAC with any chemotherapy and by maintaining the intensive chemotherapy, we expect to overcome resistance, which obviously they try to overcome by the fanout coverage, we drive overcome resistance and maybe get better results. We turn out to both ideas we're working very well.
Again, in my experience, and I think Arun probably shares is that molecular precisely targeted therapies tend to react. But we'll see. I think that's something we'll be too. [indiscernible]
Yes, [indiscernible] from Stifel. [ For 8890, ] can you just talk about the levels of TGF beta inhibition that you're achieving at the doses that you move forward for the purposes of expansion? And then maybe just quickly on like KRAS asset. .
When would we -- when should we be thinking about next update from a timing perspective? And principally, that accretes to single-agent duration of response data, but should we also expect some [indiscernible]
Yes, we take the second 1 real quick and then aromatic can address the TGF-beta target engagement question Honestly, we haven't decided. It will be over the next few months. And as we accelerate these decisions and implement the studies, we'll give you clarity of where we are with the data.
But looking at the next few months, I can't come up with the right venue. So it may have to be a stand-alone update to tell you where we're then and with the response rate, what's the duration of response.
And obviously, over time, we'll have efficacy with the chemother I think the safety of the chemotherapy that's pretty much clear. I think we need a report to make sure the FOLFIRINOX combination and clear the official DLT period. Well, obviously, will generate longer-term follow-up, and we'll provide updates in the time of fashion over the next few months. Do you want to address...
Regulatory occupancy, I mean, I guess, a couple of things. One, we're achieving full occupancy both or even the 300-gram dip. I think the dose response you saw there, we're saturating early. The 900 I think is the PK is the lag of ADA effects at anode. So I think that's sort of the rationale there.
Because of the precise mechanism here, it's challenging, right, to get a real definitive measure of inhibition in defiltrating lymphocytes in into micro environment where there's quite of the DGF data high levels of some cells which can impact. So we're measuring it. I would say it's a qualitative assessment, it's something to get the numbers on that.
But I'll refer you back to the PK plot where we had a line there, it was EC90 for that or assay and really well above that published at the dose selection going forward. So based upon [indiscernible] and the modeling that we did, we think we're more than enough to giving both PD and Gem beta as the sales growth.
Mark Frahm from TD Colin. Maybe as you variance safety shortly for the G12D combo. Is that really all you need to finalize the design and we can start the process of finalizing regulators and initiating the Phase IIIs? Or do you think you need a pretty good sense of what the efficacy looks like of that combination and the type number, but might be needed to get to that?
So let me see if I can. Well, because I think it's a very important point, right, because of the competitive intensity of this pace -- we're not standing salad for this data, okay? The team is preparing protocols for brand in fraction with FDA. We are moving forward. What we're doing is tracking the data and see where the rolls out and see we need to change that decision.
It's possible. So the planning for a first-time patriotic cancer study is ongoing. The interaction with the FDA will happen in the near term. will show the data, show the design. The thesis at combining a G12D inhibitor with chemotherapy in pancreatic cancer, for back. I don't need a lot of data to follow that signal. I mean it's a relatively obvious thing to do when you think about it.
But obviously, we won safety on a good number of patients. We're going to show the FDA we've done our diligence, and we want to see the durability of cohort at a share to confirm that we have indeed a great durability of those responses. Well, that is going in parallel. And once we have the green light, we accelerate the process.
And then maybe on the TGF-beta program, that's a slide to mention, with [indiscernible] for there, depends on the center reference I think the slide said you're moving forward with FOLFOX combination first line. Is that I over interpreting that you're not going to do for if period? And then is there some sort of synergistic or seen that's driving that decision.
We tested both combinations just in planning, both are combinable. Growth were followable. We chose the FOLFOX is its most commonly regimen in first line. Just to give a study simple, to be honest with you. But we could do both if necessary. And if we decide to go on a second item, as you know, sister wasn't new in the first time to do some second line, so we will have that data necessary.
Anyone in the room. Okay. Great. So we will switch to you on the question -- so the first is having the B2B program specifically. Can you remind us of how many of the responses to visual program at 600 doses we confirmed versus confirm? Onset a couple of times don't mind.
So it's an excellent question. Let me point out a couple of things before I give you the exact numbers. So one of the challenges for the data set and we cover great transparency of the data was it a really mature dataset. Applications have only 1 can obviously you add one scan. There's no way you can be confirmed by definition. No matter how good the response is. So we look at the subset of patients that had 2 scans or discontinued due to progression or any debate.
So that's the truly evaluate patient population, right, the 2 scans or discontinued before the second scan. [indiscernible] allows our confirmed responses to are confirmable, PRs that are still on therapy to be compared. And there are 3 stable diseases of 29% on a 22% tumor shrinkage that obviously will become PRs.
What it tells you is the response that we presented and all the formations in the waterfall chart, we have the number of scans at the bottom, you have the hours team which 1 is ongoing. All the information is presented clearly but obviously, an immature data said needs time for the confirmations to come in. And that's part of the data will continue to follow to continue the decision-making process that I've described earlier.
Great. I know -- are you spoke about this right later in the presentation. But given the high the EA rate with look at tenants will not impact long term.
Well, confidence comes from the number of patients we treated at 900-milligrams, and we have assessed PK in -- after several cycles of fitment and the [indiscernible] at we can go to how.
We also care drive ratings non neutralizing an effect on the big of the antibody and the effect on active man.
Our next question is, would you consider combining there with a 734 in MSS-CRC patients who also have a G12C patients. It seems like a unique opportunity specifically for cans.
I guess restart. That combination has overstate. We're doing dose escalation. We will have that data in just a few months have been the first to come. So we agree it's an excellent idea, and with the 1 company that has both programs in the same place, so that work is taking place by them.
Great. Now related [ to 890 ] can you talk about guidance or point to the 900-milligram dose of the bispecific given is on the higher end of the RD usual? Can you comment on the efficacy and safety profile you observed at [indiscernible] was MPD. Now does that shape the level of confidence in the therapeutic into.
So the 1,500, we exceeded MTV, which we a few patients at 0, but then we chose 900 based on the emerging data and the notes. But because of the ongoing events at the same service that are describing in the presentation.
We deescalated and we went forward with 90 [indiscernible] also at this time, the VA and PK base that came in at , there was no efficacy associated with higher growth.
So there was no export response for indicating that we have to go higher. So we basically decided to move that forward.
In -- let me -- more like that, not or, I think it's pretty clear. This is it's a PD-1 better. It's a PD1 inhibitor or the TGF-beta 2 antibody and the dose response for efficacy is likely to be flat. As Patrick mentioned, we have full target engagement of lower doses. The reason to push the dose was to make sure that ADAs did not impact the PK and as a resulting efficacy of the drug.
So that's why the 900 doses selected. This again, and I think the distress said very well to the do the CRS session. It was a multipart decision making for the dose selection impotency safety, PK and PD and the understanding of the target and we needed for that to the inhibitor.
Will you prioritize chemo combination versus monotherapy? And what setting where do you consider growing this word as a monotherapy.
No, that's at this time. And the reason is we want to focus lasers with the first-line program, pending some of the data points that we just discussed. We're going to go fast in first-line pedacos 2 types of chemotherapy. We've been second line, competitor is our far ahead of us and the market opportunity is much smaller because a lot of the patients with pancreatic networks in Fortune and the progress to second-line therapy.
So at this point, we'll continue to generate the data that you heard and will update you the results, but we have no plans to initiate a second line special filed with the G12D.
Great. And just want to also check if there's additional questions in. Okay. We have 2 more online for the for our CDS data, specific I want to understand from your perspective, how does that compare to Mars shown 7% per or response and 43% stable disease that we did cardiac or liver babies.
Yes. The first point I would make on the back end of that question, which is the safety, we have not seen party events of the recent user expansion. That was seen at the 1,500 million dose. So I don't think that is a difference really.
I think we have twice the single-agent activity that they show in terms of responses, which I think positions us very well to be competitive. So at this point, while the data continues to emerge, we think of the fact that we have a housing activity, combinability of the chemotherapy and the safety profile that [indiscernible] detail, I think we have a very big opportunity for space some of our competitors have to point out.
And I know we -- this question was asked earlier, just come up a couple of times for the specifically. So maybe we could talk again about our confidence in the 1,200-milligram dosing and forward and how we think this compares to [indiscernible] has shown 22% lower.
Well, so with the safety side. So there's 2 data sets from RevMan and we should dispose or. I mean, there's a lot of competitors in this page on some as I want to head, and you hear about his mind seems to be.
[indiscernible] has shown 22% and 20% second-line PDAC. That is in all RAS mutations. I have not seen recently a breakdown by 12 versus probably the 2 months on trade currency mutation. So let's keep that in mind. The data for the 12D selective inhibitor is better. I have not seen that plan in half of that molecule.
The Canaras is moving. Obviously, the second-line trial is almost going in terms of enrollment, the first line we said opening. I'm not going to come back or FOLFIRINOX they're combining with Genmab pointed out the dose in sentiment seems to be compromised in the regiment and ion think it's in case with dials.
And the fact that we can provide a full grades in a tolerable manner, we'll have that confirmation in a couple of weeks, but it looks to be that way, we think opens that entire door for us. We basically mix this broadly have to fool intervention patients with first 9 clause.
And then also related to some today, can you compare and address your PB data with the 75 monotherapy data for the GB inhibitor and a and what key different sense do you see if it's going to respect of patient populations.
Yes. I can't comment on the patient provision. I think my first reaction with that is the myelosuppression. Clearly, the activity was really interesting. The sponsor was 5%. I mean it was 40%, 41% was reported today but there was quite a bit of intervene, and you may not be high grade at being but when you combine with the regimen is files impressive like Genmab or FOLFIRINOX, I think that could be complicated. So I see I have no idea what the plans are, but I see that as a strong plan in second line, whether you can combine with photos chemotherapy in first line. We look forward to seeing that data.
Great. And any final questions in the room? Okay. Back to you Pablo for some closing remarks.
Thank you very much, everyone, for coming. Thank you to the 100-plus people that were online. We look forward to continue to update you on those exciting programs. and have a great rest of the meeting and a safe trial at home. Thank you.
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Incyte — ESMO Congress 2025
Incyte — ESMO Congress 2025
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Kern: Incyte stellte auf dem ESMO‑Update zwei klinische Programme vor: ein tumor‑selektives TGFBR2×PD‑1‑Bispezifikum (Fokus: microsatellite‑stable/MSS kolorektales Karzinom, oft mit Lebermetastasen) und einen KRAS G12D‑Inhibitor (Fokus: Pankreas‑/kolorektale Tumoren). Beide zeigen frühe Single‑Agent‑Aktivität und vertretbare Sicherheitsprofile; Kombinationsstudien mit Standard‑Chemotherapien laufen.
✨ Strategische Highlights
- Priorität: Fokus auf zwei große Indikationsfelder mit hohem medizinischem Bedarf: MSS‑mCRC (Breitpopulation, erste Linie) und KRAS G12D‑mutiertes Pankreaskarzinom (Ziel: erste linie Kombination mit Chemotherapie).
- Dosiswahl: Bispezifikum: 300/600/900 mg für Expansion (1.500 mg zeigte DLTs). G12D: 600/1.200 mg‑Regime, 1.200 mg als ausgewählte Dosis wegen besserer ctDNA‑Reduktion/PK‑Coverage.
- Komparatoren: Management sieht potenziell best‑in‑class‑Profil für G12D (Wirkung + Kombinierbarkeit mit beiden Chemo‑Backbones) und ein einzigartiges, kontextabhängiges TGF‑Blockade‑Konzept für MSS‑CRC.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Phase‑III‑Plan: Geplante Initiierung eines registrierenden Phase‑III‑Programms für das TGFBR2×PD‑1 in erster Linie MSS‑mCRC Anfang 2026; primärer Endpunkt: PFS; laut Management regulatorische Abstimmung besteht.
- Wirksamkeit: TGFBR2×PD‑1: ~16 Responses in ~105 MSS‑CRC‑Patienten (~15% RR) mit medianer Behandlungsdauer ~7,3 Monate; G12D: in einer Kohorte (n≈54) 34% RR und Disease‑Control‑Rate ~86% (Daten noch teilweise unreif).
- Kombinationen: Klinische Kombinationen laufen/erweitern: TGF‑Bispezifikum + FOLFOX±Bevacizumab/Cetuximab; G12D + Gem/Abraxane und + mFOLFIRINOX (DLT‑Evaluation noch laufend).
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Priorisierung: Warum Verschiebung von CDK2 zu TGF/G12D? Management antwortet: datengetriebene Priorisierung, Disziplin bei Kapitaleinsatz.
- Sicherheit & Kombinierbarkeit: Kritische Nachfragen zu IR‑Reaktionen (Bispezifikum), DLT bei 1.500 mg, und zur Kombinierbarkeit von G12D mit beiden Chemo‑Backbones; Management: bislang beherrschbar, keine therapie‑bedingten Abbrüche bei G12D.
- Biomarker & Dauer: Fragen zu TGF‑Gen‑Signature, PD‑L1‑Korrelation und ADA/PK‑Auswirkungen; Durability der Antworten bleibt offen und ist entscheidend für Registrierungsentscheidungen.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Bewertung: Die Präsentation liefert substanzielle Proof‑of‑Concept‑Signale: TGFBR2×PD‑1 könnte MSS‑CRC (insb. Lebermetastasen) in erste Linie verändern; der G12D‑Inhibitor zeigt attraktive Ansprechraten in PDAC. Wichtige Risikofaktoren bleiben: Dauerhaftigkeit der Remissionen, finale Kombinations‑Safety mit intensiven Chemo‑Regimen und regulatorische Umsetzung. Kurzfristig: datengetriebene Upside; mittelfristig: Kapital‑/Zeitrahmen und Bestätigung der Dauer werden die Kursrelevanz bestimmen.
Incyte — Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Hi. Welcome, everyone, to this session of the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference. We're thrilled to have the Incyte team with us represented by Bill and Dr. Steven Stein. I'm Judah Frommer, one of the mid-cap biotech analysts here.
Before we get started, let me just read a quick disclosure. For important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative.
All right. With that out of the way, Bill, so you recently joined as CEO. Maybe help us with a high-level view of what drew you to Incyte, how you've enjoyed your time since joining and whether there's a tangible change in priorities, either commercial or on the R&D side that you'd call out.
Yes. There were 3 threshold questions that I asked and answered. I think any CEO would do that. The first one is, does Incyte have the potential for meaningful product flow? And the answer to that question was yes. We have marketed products and a group of early and late-stage products that I think have significant potential. Not all of them are going to work, but we don't need all of them to work to build the business into the next decade. That was number one.
Second threshold question is, are they operating in structurally attractive markets? And I think broadly speaking, oncology, immunology are 2 of the most structurally attractive markets in the industry. More narrowly speaking, we're focused on hematology, oncology and then in immunology, specifically immune-mediated skin conditions. And so you're not walking into a situation where the most important strategic decision you have to make, which is where to play, has to change. Our focus will continue to be in those areas. I think Incyte has differentiated knowledge and capabilities in those areas and has an asymmetrical advantage.
And then third, from a financial standpoint, there's strong revenue, earnings and cash flow over the next several years. We're going to go through a transition. Our balance sheet continues to grow, and we'll use that appropriately if we think it can complement our internal R&D. And so far, the first 60 days has been very impressed with the depth of scientific expertise in the company. It's got a great team-oriented environment. And our focus right now is converting science into cash flow.
Okay. No, that makes a lot of sense. Exciting times. So given the expertise in MPNs, I figured we'd start there. Can you describe the opportunity across your products in the overall market across MF, PV and ET? I know you gave some numbers on ET at EHA, but some color on the overall market would be helpful.
Yes. I mean we -- just stepping back for a minute at Incyte, we have 5 targeted therapies in development. And today, there is no targeted therapy for MF, PV or ET. And so if we're successful here, we can sort of trigger an innovation-based shift in this market, like you've seen in other hematological malignancies. And this is sort of mission-critical for the company. If you look at MF, ET and PV, just broadly speaking, and you look at patients that have either an mCALR mutation or we're also developing a small molecule for JAK2617F, there's about 150,000 patients. And so you can figure out based on annual cost of therapy, that becomes a market in the tens of billions of dollars. Now you don't get all of that market. But you can get 10% to 20% of that, and we could more than double Jakafi. That is this working, right?
Right now, the first product through will be our monoclonal antibody targeting mCALR for myelofibrosis and ET. We'll present more data on ET in December, and we'll present our data on MF also in December. And so it will be a little bit less opaque and a little bit more clear in terms of what we're seeing in both these products. And I can tell you, there's about 30,000 patients with an mCALR mutation that suffer from MF and ET. And right now, they either have Jakafi on the MF side and on the ET side, they have hydroxyurea. And one is just blocking a pathway, Jakafi and the other is basically reducing platelet counts, but doing nothing to the disease. And so what you'll see in our data are conventional endpoints, hematological response, and you'll see also molecular response. And 989 has the potential to modify the course of the disease.
And I think Steven can talk a little bit more about it if you want.
Yes, sure. I mean it depends where you want to go. But as Bill said, for -- if you look at this transition from more broad-based therapies to targeted therapies is exactly what's happened in the MPN space. If you want to just talk broadly, the mutant CALR mutation is about 25% of ET, about 35% of MF, V617F, about 50% of both those conditions, but 95% of PVR, and that's how you get to Bill's number of 150,000. So the idea is to transition to these targeted therapies, eliminate malignant clones, ameliorate the traditional endpoints, blood counts, spleen, symptoms, but also get to the molecular endpoints, VAF reduction, allele reduction, potentially sort of functional long-term disease modification. You don't want to necessarily talk about cure too early, but you get to this long-term use and stability there.
Okay. Great. So with that in mind, maybe we'll double click on 989, the mutant CALR antibody. So maybe just a little bit more, can you elaborate on the regulatory path you're envisioning for ET and MF specifically potential trial design, maybe elaborate on endpoints beyond VAF a little bit as well.
Yes, sure. It's probably a little premature to answer your question fully. But if you just take it stepwise, it's getting the right dosing schedule for each of those. We know and we showed at ER, as you alluded to, in ET, particularly type 1, we have an exquisitely sensitive drug where you get rapid normalization of platelets and then those other endpoints I spoke about. Type 2 is probably going to take a little bit of a higher dose to get there, and we knew that preclinically. Ideally, we want one dose for both, and we'll get to encompassing that data as we update the data sets, but get the dose and schedule.
And then from a regulatory standpoint, they're slightly different. So in essential thrombocythemia, it's about controlling blood counts. long-term control. If you want to use the Merck-Imago LSD1, they're talking about a 52-week complete hematologic response there. The question is what's long-term control. But then the other clinical benefit piece in ET is lack of the morbidity and the chief morbidity there is thrombosis. So you can get them into a sort of composite combined endpoint.
In MF to date, the field hasn't moved for 1.5 decades beyond spleen reduction, SVR35, which was an Incyte invented endpoint when RUX came along and then symptom control. And the question there is, do you need both of those, plus we've seen very intriguing anemia responses and that's a clinical benefit endpoint. If you can get people away from developing anemia and the need for transfusion, that's another established regulatory endpoint. But for both, ideally, we'd like to weave in, in discussion with the FDA an appropriate molecular endpoint. I think that will be a game changer for the drug. It will reflect what it's doing and the ways of measuring allele burden reduction, long-term allele burden reduction or megakaryocytes themselves, malignant megakaryocytes measure them going away.
So for us, we would like to get to that endpoint that encompasses both the traditional clinical benefit endpoints plus molecular characterization. It's a little premature to talk about what those are right now because we have to negotiate that with regulatory agencies.
And our goal is to start Phase III, at least in ET by the middle of 2026. We're already in conversations with the FDA, and those will continue between now and then.
Okay. That makes sense. And as you said, kind of the December update is becoming more and more of a focus for investors. So I guess, are there specific or general efficacy thresholds you can point us toward for that update? And what would help you in terms of developing a plan for monotherapy versus combination?
Yes. No, it's a great question. So obviously, we've shown ET data at EHA. We'll also update the ET data set. Your question is mostly focused on the MF data set. There's sort of 3 populations to focus on there. We started with monotherapy, mostly in later-line patients because of [indiscernible] needed to be developed, but these are people who either RUX nonresponsive, RUX intolerant or RUX progressive. And the key is we need to show monotherapy activity there. So it will be the substantive part of the data set at different doses.
And then we have combination work with RUX in combo, both in later-line patients and more recently, actually first line as well. So the whole spectrum of disease. And the question is there and still somewhat of an unknown question is how much do you need the combination versus not? Can you dial RUX out of the equation, use it early to control symptoms, get some spleen response and then keep the cat on maintenance. That needs to be worked out.
But to the meat of your question is what are the regulatory path there. And again, they're relatively well established with standard endpoints of SVR35 and symptom control, but the anemia benefit becomes really tangible and then the molecular piece. And that's where we want to get to, and we want to show data that warrants getting into those endpoints. I think as we sort of work with regulatory agencies, we'll work out how much do we need long term in ET? Is it -- do we need the full 52 weeks? Or do we need sort of maybe potentially a shorter duration, which will certainly help shorten the study to get it across the finish line? And then what populations?
So the most obvious one, I think, is second-line ET because that's an open space, potentially first-line ET versus Hydrea needs to be worked out. And then in MF, it's standard first-line MF suboptimal is a population that's well worked out. And then an intriguing population, very early days still is low-risk MF. These patients are felt to be indolent and not really develop complications. But when you look closely at those data sets, a lot of them do progress within a year or 2 in terms of markers of progression. And there may be a game to play there that's very important for patients with a mutant CALR antibody to ameliorate the low-risk population in MF. So they're all potentially in play. I'm not answering you directly. But if you add those up, it's second-line ET, potentially first-line ET and maybe 3 MF populations that need to be addressed.
Got it. And then it's early days, I think, for a fulsome answer here as well. But I guess, how are you thinking about long-term dosing strategy for ET and MF for 989, I guess, how would molecular response potentially factor into that?
Yes. Well, currently -- and you guys have seen this in terms of weekly dosing IV, the idea is also to get to a subcu, which will make it a lot more patient-friendly go home and be able to administer it. But we are going to look at different schedules, particularly you could envisage in the maintenance phase, can you go out and still hypothetical this q 2 week, q 4 week, those sort of things to make it more friendly to be worked out. The platelet in ET is such a sensitive pharmacodynamic marker that you should be able to see -- if you do space out the dosing, you should be able to see if you lose control pretty quickly from the platelet count perspective. So we'll work that out. But the idea is to look at potentially more patient and physician-friendly dosing schedules.
Okay. That makes sense. And you touched on it with potential for combo with Jakafi. But I guess maybe more holistically, how should we thinking about the XR opportunity for Jakafi maybe on its own and then, I guess, potentially in combination with 989?
Look, once-a-day Jakafi has the potential to preserve a reasonable proportion of Jakafi sales. We'll introduce it in the middle of 2026. You can look at conversion models. They can be as low as 10%, upwards of 30%, even higher. I have to be brutally realistic about the environment that we're -- the payer environment that we're in right now. Take a midpoint of that range as sort of a base case, and it could be higher and not insignificant as we go through this '28, '29 period, and we have exclusivity on XR that extends into the early 2030s. And so that will be a piece of the puzzle as we sort of build this business into the next decade.
Okay. That makes sense. Maybe just touching on 2V617F, right? So I think you mentioned in your earnings update that the program needed data for higher exposures and longer follow-up. I guess what are you looking for specifically in terms of safety? And how is that study trending overall?
Yes. As Pablo said on the earnings call, we probably somewhat underestimated the dose to get adequate inhibition. And that's why we haven't shown a substantive data set at all yet, and we actually won't be showing this year because we have to keep going on dose ranging. We're right now in the clinic at a dose that's getting us about an IC35, and that's where we should start seeing activity. So it's a design a drug, as Bill said earlier, for the V617F mutation. It's a small molecule, and we would expect it to absolutely work once you have adequate exposure, and we're only there now and then you have to see over time.
The other thing with safety, as you allude to, whenever you put any new compound into humans is just make sure you do no harm. And for example, in this instance, don't wipe out the bone marrow or something like that. Obviously, you can tell from the programs ongoing that hasn't occurred. So we -- safety is not an issue at the moment. It's about getting adequate exposure to see the activity, and it's going to take a little longer than expected to get there.
Okay. That makes sense. And speaking of earnings, I think Niktimvo was a bright spot there kind of relative to consensus expectations. So beyond third-line use, how do you see label expansion progressing or earlier line opportunities evolving? What time lines are realistic for studies in those areas?
Yes, you're right. We got off to a good start. We're 2 quarters in. I think we'll have a reassuring third quarter. We have 3 programs in place, a subcu, a combination study with steroids and a combination study with Jakafi, which would move it into first line or second line. All those programs are ongoing right now. You're probably looking at end of '26, '27 when we start to produce results of subcu. We still have to design a study, talk to the FDA about whether that's a bridging study or a full study.
Okay. That makes sense. And maybe last one kind of rounding in MPNs. Any competitors out there you're watching particularly carefully. We've got certainly some development in China, which we'll talk about a little bit more later or somewhere else. This is an important engine, like you said, I think, for kind of bridging the franchise to the future.
Look, you got LSD1. We have ropeg, which is already out in the market. But I don't think there's a mutation-specific approach right now that is advanced as our 989 monoclonal antibody is or our small molecule 617. And I do think in hematology, there's intrinsic appeal to a treatment that targets in both cases, the driver mutation. And I believe there's a market both in ET, where you have to bifurcate, low-risk and high-risk patients and certainly in MF, which is a more aggressive cancer. But as long as we continue to convert these Phase I data, turn into a Phase III program, get an FDA approval, I don't see competition being a major problem.
Okay. Great. Kind of moving more broadly into oncology, tafasitamab. How are you thinking about opportunities in DLBCL and follicular lymphoma? I think on the second quarter call, you said something along the lines of FL alone could do up to $200 million by around 2028. So how are you thinking about the opportunity in DLBCL with Polivy already there frontline?
Yes. I mean the field in first-line diffuse large B-cell lymphoma didn't move forever, right? It was a very hard regimen to beat in terms of its cure rates, 50%, 60% plus until the CD79a antibody came across the finish line. And you can see the uptake there, certainly in the U.S. is very good because I think physicians and patients will use things that improve cure rates. Our bet in first-line diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, similar design. It's basically an add-on to R-CHOP with the tafa-len regimen, which already demonstrated in follicular lymphoma, what we think is outstanding efficacy, a hazard ratio of 0.43, 57% improvement in the time-to-event endpoint there.
So we hope to translate that into the diffuse large B-cell lymphoma first line. We're waiting for events. It's an event-driven study. Sometimes the longer events take, it can be better. We'll see what happens, but it should be -- it should get to its final event sort of any day now in the next little while, and then it will take a couple of months to clean and analyze the database and produce results. If we get a positive hazard ratio with a positive p-value, then you have a new regimen that you'll have to get approved and across the finish line, and it hopefully will translate to again because people want to improve cure rates. From a tolerability point of view, it's excellent regimen. I mean we didn't really add much toxicity at all in follicular lymphoma with some really excellent efficacy, and we'll see in diffuse large B-cell, whether we can do the same thing.
The other thing we're doing with tafa, just to mention, this doesn't come up a lot is this interest in non-oncology immune-mediated conditions, eliminating B cells in conditions like ITP, some of the more aggressive membranous nephropathies, et cetera. So we have a program ongoing there to get to proof-of-concept work there as well. And then we're developing also with tafa subcu version as well. So there's a lot of activity going on there with potentially a lot of patient benefit.
Okay. And then maybe just kind of more broadly on solid tumor strategy post ESMO. What are kind of go/no-go decisions or criteria you're basing decisions on when you're thinking about advancing KRAS G12D, your TGF-beta PD-1 bispecifics. I guess how do you assess competitive differentiation with those products?
Yes. On G12D, look, that's, as you know, a competitively intense area right now. I think there's 3 things that have to be in place for us. One, a competitive response rate. Right now, to a certain extent, RevMed is the benchmark with their pan-RAS. I think they have response rates between 22% and 29% and PFS between 4 and 8 months. So we have to believe that we have a competitive product. Next, we have to believe that there's differentiated tolerability there, especially in combination with chemo, right? And then we have to believe in the duration of response.
We're going to take a look at the data that we produce, take a look at what's happening in the space. There's not -- there's a lot of programs but not a lot of data out there. And if we think we can compete, we'll go first-line PDAC. And really, the question is which approach is best? Is it full dose chemo with a G12D? Or is it a pan-RAS with modified dose chemo. If we're not first, we have to be early and we have to defend it. And it starts with what our data look like at the end of the year, and then we'll call balls and strikes on that. TGF-beta, you want to.
Yes. The bispecific TGF-beta play has obviously been an area over the last 20 years, which hasn't been really successful in terms of targeting people that looked at TRAP, ligand inhibitors, et cetera, largely because of toxicity related to the TGF-betaR2, particularly cardiac toxicity. So what our research group, I think, did really elegantly here is build a bispecific that has differential affinity for the PD-1 at tenfold plus, decimal point greater. So to take the compound straight to the T cells that needed and try and avoid any inhibitory effect where you don't want it to happen. And so we've been in the clinic. We've treated a lot of patients, and we have a therapeutic ratio there that's getting us the safety we need.
And then you need, as Bill was saying, the efficacy signal in an area where you will believe enough to take it forward to a registration program. And then as Bill said, at ESMO this year, we will be showing a data set in microsatellite stable colorectal cancer that we think is a very interesting field to play in. Immunotherapy there doesn't exist. In fact, PD-1s alone have single digit, practically no efficacy. So it's not an area where immunotherapy is active. We think we have a very interesting signal that we'll show you that will potentially warrant, as Bill said, a registration-directed program there. The major problem in that entity, and it's a big part of colorectal cancer is liver metastasis. So we'll show activity in both people with and without liver metastasis and then make decisions on where to go forward in terms of registration efforts there. There is no biomarker currently that selects patients. So it will be the broad spectrum of microsatellite stable colorectal cancer, perhaps with some PD-L1 expression attached to it.
Everyone is taking VEGF PD-1s in lung cancer. And so we're not in that group of 20. So this could be interesting for us.
Okay. Great. Maybe kind of turning to the derm portfolio. So maybe just we start with kind of a high-level question on Opzelura. I guess, given your early-stage assessment, I guess, how has that market evolved to the point where Opzelura sales have been maybe been hindered by just kind of a switch to topical nonsteroidals versus kind of internal efforts that could have been executed differently?
Look, there's a -- I think the most important aspect of that market right now is that there is a migration from topical corticosteroids and there's about one prescription for a topical corticosteroid written in the United States every other second. It's a very large market. That migration is happening. And if you look at the data for Opzelura compared to other nonsteroidals, it's tough to beat, whether you're talking about clearance or its relief. We have a prescriber base of like 17,000 physicians. We have complete formulary coverage at all the major PBMs and plans.
And so it's about execution in dermatology between now and, let's call it, 5 years from now. I believe that -- and I said this on the call, the product has the potential to grow at a 10% CAGR over a 5-year period, which means we have the potential to 2x that business. I don't think it's a heroic assumption. Half that growth is going to come from Europe where we'll get an indication for moderate AD. Important country there is Germany. And then half that growth will come from the United States. And there are some smaller companies out there that are also working in this area. I don't think this is a fight to the death or a market share battle. As long as this migration continues, which I expect it will, people want to get off steroids. I think triamcinolone was introduced in 1958, works really well. But we have -- there's enough opportunity here in that market with this shift to continue to have this business grow at a solid rate, which is how I think about it.
Are there additional low-hanging fruit you'd point to beyond, like you said, EU and some expansion in the U.S., like that formulary coverage seems to be a competitive advantage based on kind of competitor commentary?
Yes. We have 94% coverage. Most of it is a single step, which is very, very manageable. It's important to manage your discount rate, which we continue to do. We're still having a balanced conversation with the health plans. And if we keep that in place and execute, this will be an important growth driver over the next 5 years.
Okay. Great. And then kind of just taking a step back, kind of higher-level strategy. Can you give us a sense on breakdown of R&D resource allocation by area of development? In your mind, again, early days, are there areas kind of ripe for added versus reduced focus as you move forward, internal versus external focus?
Yes, it's a good question. It's virtually all we do. I think it's virtually what any management team at a pharmaceutical company to do is call balls and strikes in R&D. If you think about the profile of this company as we build it post Jakafi, hematology/oncology will be the 2 most important. And obviously, this is going to be a function of the data and how these compounds look. And then third would be immunology.
If you look at our budget right now, that's how it's organized. I will tell you, every project will be put through essentially a scorecard, and we'll make sure that the return justifies the investment and be -- understand the range of possible outcomes because I know that every use of capital is an opportunity cost for another use of capital. And we have a number of different R&D decisions that we'll be making over the next 6 to 9 months. Our MPN business, is mission-critical. Oncology, we're very targeted and selective about where we're going to go. We have to believe that we can be competitive, be early and defend our position. And then, of course, in immunology, we're focused on povorcitinib. And as we think about 2026 in the R&D budget, we'll explain how we're spending the money and why.
Okay. That makes sense. And maybe just to round out the company-specific questions. Obviously, a lot going on. We touched on, I think, the majority of it, but -- and you just mentioned povo there. Like anything you'd point out that we didn't touch on that you'd highlight in the story that investors should be focused on?
I think you had it right, hematology, oncology, immunology. You talked about XR and povorcitinib, which will be important launches, the big launches. I think you covered it all.
Okay. Great. I'm going to move into kind of a mini survey that we're asking all of the biotech management teams. While I do that, if anyone does have a question in the audience, just feel free to raise your hand. We do have some mics. So kind of the backdrop here is biotech seems to be more exposed to external and macro factors of late. So we're asking each of the management teams 3 questions. The first is with China's rise in biotech innovation, how are you thinking about your competitive position here? Will this influence R&D and/or business development strategy currently or in the relative near term?
Yes, certainly. It's a source of innovation and it's a source of competition. I think both are relevant. We have a small office in China and people on the ground doing development as well as business development. That's how we think about it.
Okay. Got it. The next topic is AI. How is Incyte currently leveraging AI or thinking about AI's future disruption potential, I would say, both on the positive and negative side here also?
At the ASCO meeting in Chicago a couple of months ago, someone from Google got up and said, AI will never replace humans, but humans with AI will replace humans without AI. And I think that's true. We have over 20 AI agents in the company across all of our departments, R&D, commercial and others. And we, of course, have partnerships. And look, it's an important enabling capability. And I think Steven is involved directly with some of those things, but -- and it's relevant at Incyte.
Yes. Maybe just one example there because Bill alluded to it. In the regulatory side of things in development, the first answers we give, the first draft are done by an agent just because there's so much repetition across the planet. So once you start populating and the learning modules just get better, that first draft is generated by an agent in seconds and then humans do the editing that's needed. And it's actually for people who were sort of Ladakh, nonbelievers, nonadopters, are sort of pleasantly surprised at how good it gets over time. And that's where we want to head in an appropriate way.
Okay. Great. Speaking of regulatory submission. So the last topic is from the regulatory side, I guess, what's been most impactful to the business or what's generating kind of the most internal conversation. Some examples we've had are changes at FDA, MFN pricing debates, tariffs -- anything else you can think of that's most impactful to your business?
Look, I think FDA is going through some changes right now, but it's still the most reputable skilled regulatory body in the world, and I think it will always be that way, and they'll approve 30 to 50 drugs a year. And I think that's important. We need a scientific-based regulatory body here in the United States. I don't see that as a permanent problem, but a transient one.
On MFN, I don't think we should aspire to an international pricing model for lots of good reasons. There does need to be, of course, better balance between rewarding for innovation and affordable medicines. It's going to require contribution from every constituency in the health care, PBMs, 340B, pharma companies, the international geographies. But I don't believe MFN in its purest form is the right thing for the industry, and I think most people would agree with that.
Okay. Got it. Maybe we poll one last time for questions in the audience. Okay. If there are none, I think we'll leave it there. Thanks, guys.
Good. Thank you.
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Incyte — Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
Incyte — Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kernaussage: Management will Incyte klar auf Hämatologie/Onkologie und Immunologie fokussieren, Wissenschaft in Cash‑Flow überführen und priorisiert mutierte‑CALR (989) sowie Jakafi XR und weitere Onkologie‑Programme als Wachstumshebel.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- MPN‑Strategie: Fünf zielgerichtete Wirkstoffe in Entwicklung; 989 (mCALR‑Antikörper) als Lead für ET/MF mit Potenzial zur krankheitsmodifizierenden Wirkung.
- Regulatorik: Management strebt Einbindung molekularer Endpunkte (z.B. Variant Allele Fraction, VAF) in Studienendpunkte an; Gespräche mit FDA laufen.
- Portfolio & Kapital: Fokus auf interne R&D in Hämatologie/Onkologie; Bilanz soll bei Bedarf externe Gelegenheiten ergänzen; Opzelura und Jakafi XR als near‑term Umsatztreiber.
🔍 Neue Informationen
- Timing: Zielstart Phase‑III für ET bis Mitte 2026; Daten‑Updates zu ET und MF sind für Dezember avisiert.
- Studiendesign: Management prüft Monotherapie vs. Kombination (z.B. mit Jakafi), Dosisfindung und patientenfreundliche Subkutan‑Formate; 2V617F Small‑Molecule benötigt höhere Exposition und mehr Follow‑up.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Endpoints: Analysten fragten konkret nach regulatorischen Thresholds und Einbindung molekularer Endpunkte; Management nennt Verhandlungen mit FDA als nächsten Schritt.
- Dosis & Formulierung: Diskussion über optimale Dosierung, IV→subkutan‑Brücke und Erhaltungsintervalle (q2–q4w) für 989.
- Wettbewerb & Sicherheit: Nachfrage zu Konkurrenz in MPN/Onkologie, zu Differenzierungsmerkmalen (z.B. Tumor‑selektive Ansprache) und zu Sicherheit/Exposition beim V617F‑Programm.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit: Event liefert klare Entwicklungs‑ und Timing‑Katalysatoren (Dezember‑Daten, Phase‑III‑Start Mitte 2026, Jakafi XR‑Launch). Werttreiber sind MPN‑Programme und onkologische Readouts; Ergebnisrisiken bleiben Dosisfindung, regulatorische Einigung auf Endpunkte und kommerzielle Durchsetzung in einem anspruchsvollen Erstattungsumfeld.
Incyte — Wells Fargo 20th Annual Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
All right, everyone. I think we'll get started here with our next fireside this morning. My name is Derek Archila. I'm one of the biotech analysts here at Wells. Very excited to have Incyte with us for the next fireside from the company. Bill Meury, President and CEO, only been in the seat for 60 days, I think you said.
About that.
That's great. And then we got Pablo Cagnoni, President and Head of Research and Development. So gentlemen, thanks so much and looking forward to the discussion here.
Good to be here. Thank you.
So Bill, maybe in the last 60 days, you can kind of recap your view of the business and kind of what got you excited to join Incyte at this time.
Yes. I'll start with the second part of that question. I've been asked it often. Pablo has heard me say this a few times. I think there's 3 threshold questions anyone should ask whether you're investing in a company or you're buying a company or in my case, joining as the CEO. The first one is, is there a potential for meaningful product flow at Incyte? And from the outside looking in, the answer to that question was yes, both in terms of the marketed products, ex Jakafi as well as the early and late-stage pipeline.
Second is the company operating in what I would call structurally attractive markets, broadly speaking, oncology and immunology, more narrowly speaking, MPNs and immune-mediated skin conditions. Answer to that question is yes. And then the financial profile of the company in the near to medium term is very strong in terms of cash flow and a growing balance sheet. And that's why I joined. And I think there's the potential to really build this company essentially for the next decade. We have 2 to 3 years where we are going to put together or configure a product line, assuming success that's got long-term durable revenue, earnings and cash flow. I have been impressed in the first 60 days with the depth of scientific expertise in the company.
And I often describe it as top 10 pharma quality scientists and drug developers in an organization that doesn't have the complexity and bureaucracy of a top 10 company. I think Pablo's management team is exceptional, both in terms of our discovery head and the biologists and chemists working for him and the translational medicine people. Then we have an early and late-stage drug development group that's headed by 2 really exceptional people. And so I think it's been a good decision. And we just have to convert science into business results.
Yes. Well, let's talk about that. So I mean, obviously, one of the core business drivers today and ideally in the future is kind of in MPN. So maybe talk about, obviously, what's ahead of you in terms of the Jakafi LOE, but not only how do you plan to replace but also grow through that with some of the pipeline, and we can get into the nuances of the pipeline. But again, from a big picture view, like what's the plan?
Yes. And I think what you just said is important. There's a couple of ways to deal with this kind of a transition. I try to avoid the word cliff. And you can invest through it.and launch products through it, which is the preferred way. And then there's sort of the other way, which is other companies have dealt with, which is restructuring. Now time is of the essence, but we have time here, and I think the potential for product flow. So that's how we solve the problem.
As it relates to the transition, I'll just cover off on XR, make a couple of comments about all the targeted therapies that we're developing, and I may turn it over to Pablo to comment on 989, which is going to be the first mover in our MPN strategy. We'll launch Jakafi XR in the middle of 2026. And that's going to preserve some residual or that's going to create a residual revenue stream on Jakafi as we go through the '29, '30 period. XR conversions are pretty typical. They can usually land in, I'll call it, broadly speaking, a 10% to 30% range, you can convert. Let's take the midpoint, 20% if we're successful with the one today.
There are certainly analogs out there where it could be higher, but I'd rather be very sober about what you can achieve in terms of preserving Jakafi revenues. And the value of the company is not going to trade on XR. It's going to trade on the therapies that we're developing next generation essentially. What we're attempting to do with MPNs broadly is trigger a changing of the guard from basically, the standard of care is either Jakafi, a pathway approach or a cytoreductive agent, if you're talking about ET with hydroxyurea to a series of targeted therapies, which, to some extent, would be considered the holy grail in MPNs.
And I think companies that are successful like Incyte in terms of their size, stage and scale are companies that have hyperfocus in specialized areas that are very high value. And if we can create a new standard of care for MF, PV and ET, then this company is going to be -- is really going to thrive as we get into the 2030s. We have 5 different targeted therapies under development at various stages, okay? So very different than what's currently the standard of care in MPNs.
We have 989, a monoclonal antibody targeting mCALR. We have 617F, which is a small molecule also targeted. We, of course, have a BET inhibitor, a bispecific, and we have an undisclosed discovery compound that I think is interesting. Not all of them are going to make it. We don't need all of them to make it. But if 2 or 3 of those make it, we could sort of transform how hematology is dealing with this particular -- these particular conditions. 989, we presented data in Europe, as you know. I guess it was in June, right, Pablo? At the end of the year, there will be more data, more mature data on ET and then data on myelofibrosis. I find the data very encouraging. I'm going to let Pablo just talk a little bit about what's going to be available.
So for 989, as you know, and we presented a significant first data set at the EHA meeting in June, so just a couple of months ago. And that was focused on ET, essential thrombocythemia. We had a good number of patients. And I think the data clearly demonstrated that 989 -- the fundamental thesis behind 989 was that by interfering the interaction between the mutated color protein and the TPOR receptor, it would reduce or eliminate the size of the malignant clone in these diseases and allow the benign the wild-type clone to expand and correct all the signs and symptoms of these diseases.
So what we showed in ET was rapid normalization of platelets, which is exactly what you want to see, together with a very well-tolerated safety profile. Almost all the patients had continued on therapy at the time. And we saw evidence of efficacy across the spectrum of patients with ET, both type 1 and non-type 1 mutations. So I think that set the stage for what we guided to at the EHA to initiate pivotal trials in ET as early as possible in 2026. And that's still the plan today. We are in the process of having regulatory conversations with the FDA, and we'll provide updates over time, but that continues to be the plan.
As we promised at the time before the end of this year, we'll have data in patients with myelofibrosis, both as a single agent and in combination with Jakafi. And the reason for that is, as you all know, Jakafi is approved in patients with intermediate high-risk MF and been in the market for a long time and provides significant benefit to these patients, both intestinal spleen reduction symptoms and a survival benefit over time. Now for all the positives Jakafi, it is an imperfect drug. It has some side effects in some patients because of their hemoglobin may or may not be eligible for it.
So we think the approach here has to take 2 tacks, one single agent, and we need to see single-agent activity. Particularly, we need single agent activity in conventional endpoints, symptoms, spleen and anemia as well as what we believe tell the true story for 989, which is reduction of the allele burden. In other words, reduction in the size of malignant clone. And when you look at the bone marrow reduction, in megakaryocyte hyperplasia, in other words, reducing the number of color positive megakaryocytes in the bone marrow of this patient. That tells you that you're really reducing the burden of the disease. So we'll have single-agent data. We'll have combination. We'll discuss the results at the time. But we continue to be super excited about this program. And we think 2026 will see it. It will be a year where you're going to see a lot of flow in terms of what's happening with the 989 program.
Got it. So a lot of questions here. So first, maybe just on ET. Can you kind of frame us -- frame for us the opportunity there in terms of what you think the opportunity looks like? I mean, I know some folks will say it's an indolent disease, but where do you think the opportunity in the patient set is there?
Yes. I think it's a good question. If you surveyed the hematologists, they'll make 2 comments when they hear it's an indolent condition. You've heard me say this, Derek. First, it's indolent, but not benign. Second, it's slow moving, but it can still kill you, right? And I think the way the hematology community looks at it is they bifurcate the population. There's low-risk patients where a watch-and-wait strategy and low-dose aspirin may be sufficient. But there's at least half that market that either they're younger and the clinical course of the disease is relevant because they can transform, even though that risk is low, that consequence is catastrophic or patients who are at high risk, and their platelet counts aren't under control.
And if you look at the market, you probably have -- you have a $5 billion ET market. That's what it is. And I'd say at least half of that, a targeted therapy like 989 is going to be relevant. Now do we get all of that? Do we get most of that? Jakafi's penetration in MF, it's about 70%, right? And so I think that they're using a treatment today, hydroxyurea that was invented in 1967. And you can ask any hematologist, they'll say, it's fine, but it's not the best that we can do.
And so we're going to be able to capture utilization in that portion of the market where they're either high risk or they're actually worried about the long-term consequences of ET. Hematologists will often say, hey, this is like a ticking time bomb. And so I think it's important to remember, it is cancer, and you could sort of mischaracterize this by talking about it as an indolent condition, although that is a common theme. And I think for a portion of the population, that may be true. There is a market there, and it looks like we have a drug, and it will be an important part of sort of the potential of 989.
Got you. And then maybe this one's for Pablo in terms of like what we'll learn at the update later this year. I guess, how are you already kind of thinking about pivotal trial design in ET? And is it kind of already set or you need to kind of wait additional data before really taking the plunge on the design?
Yes. I -- look, I think the data we showed at the EHA should have convinced everyone that 989 is a drug in ET. I hope so. And if not, see me outside, we can talk about it. But I think that it's clear that this drug works in ET. So then what are the potential design? And ET is pretty straightforward, right? In second line, there's a -- there are certain drugs approved, none of which works very well. So it's a pretty straightforward design of 989 versus some kind of control arm, which could include a basket of different options.
The endpoints that have been discussed in the past and what some of our competitors are already doing are a complete hematologic response, a durable complete hematologic response. So what we would like to do is have a conversation with FDA along those lines. 989 is a novel mechanism. It does things no other drug has done before in the sense of really eliminate the malignant clone in this disease as opposed to just killing platelets and normalizing the platelet count, which is what hydroxyurea does or anagrelide. So can we have a conversation with the agency about incorporating some novel endpoints in the primary endpoint definition? And that would be some version of megakaryocyte hyperplasia reduction or VAF reduction.
I can't guarantee you that, that's going to work, but we're going to try because I think it matters. I think it matters to patients, I think it matters to prescribers and new drugs deserve new endpoints. And so this is a new idea. And I think that conversation needs to happen with FDA. Worst case scenario, we'll run a study with durable hematologic response, similar to what some of our competitors are doing. I still think with the data that we have in second line, it's a pretty easy path forward.
First line is a little bit more complicated because hydroxyurea, at least when it comes to reduction in platelets works pretty well. It has a lot of liabilities, as Bill mentioned, tolerability, the fact that you have to constantly adjust the dose because it kills platelets, but also kills white cells. So it's a little bit -- but the reduction in platelets is real. Still, I think that if we have to fall back to durable hematologic response, that's fine or we can use the IWG definition, which includes megakaryocyte hyperplasia as part of the endpoint. So those are the lines on which we're going to discuss this. The highest priority now is the second line, first line. It's more of a conversation with the FDA, but we're going to move forward with that.
And I know the current trials use the IV version of the drug. I know I think you've talked about subcu. So maybe you can just elaborate on that.
Yes, it's a very high priority for us. We needed to have an idea of the dose. Once we did that over the first half, middle of the year, our formulation team started working on this aggressively. We're doing the best we can to accelerate this time line. You'll have a more clear update at some point in 2026. We will have a subcu formulation. I don't know the exact timing yet, but conversations both on the formulation itself are already well advanced. And we're also having conversations with potential manufacturer for a device for the subcu administration. So all this is going to be crystallized in 2026.
Like is it fair to assume the base case is that you move forward with the initial Phase III second line with IV or...
That's the base case for now.
Base case. All right. We'll stick with that. Maybe shifting to myelofibrosis. So we have the update at the end of the year, you kind of previewed that a little bit. But I guess as you start to think about the different scenarios in terms of Phase III design and development beyond that, a lot of different moving parts there. So maybe you can just walk us through how you're thinking about that with 989.
So MF is a little bit more complicated. We have a lot more experience, as you know, which is a good thing in this case because it's a little bit more complex. So again, you can go from patients post-Jakafi second -- let's call them second-line patients. It's not an ideal definition, but let's call them second-line patients. And in that context, the options are available. I would argue none of them are great. So assuming, as I think we should, that 989 will have single-agent activity on spleen, symptoms, anemia, VAF and megakaryocytes in previously treated patients, that's a pretty straightforward second-line [ setting ]. So that's one option.
The other end of the spectrum, which I find intriguing, but I don't have a lot of detail to give you today is Jakafi is approved in intermediate high-risk patients with MF. It's not in low-risk patients. We do know these patients transform over time, and there's good real-world data for this. Can we run a study there? I think that's a conversation we need to have internally and then with FDA because it's obviously a population with much lower risk of disease.
But assuming 989 continues to have the excellent safety profile we've seen so far, I think there's an argument to be made that, that's a population that could benefit the most and so we should look at that. And they have the big price today, at least the big price, which is the middle with Jakafi is approved. And intermediate high-risk patients, as all of you know, rapid improvement of symptoms with Jakafi, has been reductions in the about 35% of patients as you have [ 35 ] but significant progression of anemia when you put patients on Jakafi, thrombocytopenia can be as well a problem.
And let's face it, every single patient with MF today progresses and dies of the disease. They progress to either fibrotic state when the bone marrow is basically spent or they progress to acute leukemia, but they do progress. Jakafi doesn't cure patients, doesn't even transform MF into a chronic disease. It provides enormous benefit to patients as we know. So the combination with Jakafi is key part of the story. We'll have some of that data later this year. And that's the beginning of the journey to figure out how to design the study in naive patients in combination with Jakafi. I could make it very simple and say Jakafi vs Jakafi 989, sure. What are the endpoints?
Well, as I mentioned for ET, a conversation needs to be had with the FDA. We think this drug does unique things that even Jakafi doesn't do. How can we incorporate those at least as co-primary or part of the composite endpoint in MF? And that conversation will take place over the next few months.
Got it. So a couple of questions. So one, just in terms of the safety of the combo, like how do you think about that in terms of overlapping tox, if there's any? And then I have another question after that.
Yes. We'll review the data later this year. I'm not concerned. When I look at 989, let's take a step back for a second because I should have mentioned this. When you look at the ET data, you should go back to the 2 or 3 preclinical presentations that we had for the 989 program going back to ASH 2022. So basically, the ET clinical data replicated what we predicted would happen in patients. The preclinical models, and that's one of the strengths of Incyte, which is we have an amazing myeloid biology group that really understands how to build these models, how to run them and how to interpret that data and try to extrapolate what's going to happen in the clinic. And I think that turned out to be true in ET, and I expect will turn out to be true in MF.
And that's very important because the models predict that the combination with Jakafi only will have better efficacy, but it will not have a safety liability. So if you believe that 989 is highly selected to reduce the size of the mutant clone in these patients, you have to believe that over time, that will help the normal -- the wild-type clone recover in those patients would tolerate the same dose of Jakafi better. That could take time to prove. I'm not telling you that's going to be an easy question to answer. But hypothetically, that's what should happen. So let's be patient with that and follow that along.
989 is so selective for color mutated TPOR receptor positive cells that it's hard for me to believe it will have significant hematologic toxicity by itself. Now when we present safety in these studies, as you know, there are pre-treated patients. There's a lot of background nodes in this disease as our Phase I study. So let's interpret that data cautiously. But I have a hard time believe that 989 will have will have significant heme toxicity based on what the drug does.
Very helpful. And then going back to kind of the development strategy, I guess, you think about these different patient buckets, like what -- where does that kind of land in terms of the opportunity in terms of the market and revenues? And ultimately, going back to what you can build off of the ET, obviously, we're trying to replace and grow beyond Jakafi. Again, how do you kind of fit all these pieces together?
Well, if you just take -- if we look at 989 and not take [ 617F ] because that 2x is this sort of this market. There's 30,000 people roughly in the United States with MF and ET and a mutant CALR, right? That's 30,000. These therapies, targeted therapies at the low end of the range are roughly $250,000 a year. So you're looking at a total TAM of $7.5 billion. And the question is, what percentage of these patients does a targeted therapy like 989 work? There's plenty of market potential there. We'll probably achieve a higher penetration of that MF market, which of the $7.5 billion, let's just call it, like $2 billion, we'll see -- and we'll achieve a lower penetration of that ET market given that you got to separate the low risk from the high risk, but that's about $5.5 billion. And so not worried about the commercial potential of this.
And I do think that for hematologists, there's an intrinsic appeal. It's very intuitive when they hear about the information about 989. I think they've been managing -- someone said to me the other day, when we deal with ET, there's a composite risk. But for the past several decades, we've been focused on one component of that composite risk, which is thrombotic risk. You reduce platelet counts, you can reduce thrombotic risk, but we're not dealing with the course of this condition and the transformation risk, which, yes, is relatively speaking, low, but the consequences here are catastrophic. And so I think there's, like I said, plenty of market.
If you add in 617, the number goes up by about 3x in terms of the number of people with an mCALR mutation and a 617 mutation across the 3 MPNs, MF, PV and ET. Obviously, PV becomes very relevant for a compound like 617, but also relevant for MF and ET.
Got you. And then maybe just an update on 617 in terms of where we are there. I know that you've got the data pushed into '26, but kind of, I don't know, are you still confident in that molecule? And ultimately, where do we stand?
So the V617F program is really important to complete the story we just talked about, right? Because only 25% of patients with ET are CALR mutated, 35% in MF and basically 0 in PV. So we got to cover the entire MPN spectrum, which, by the way, is our goal. Incyte wants to be the company that provides a solution for every patient with an MPN by the end of the decade. And that requires a 617F inhibitor. The central thesis here that the 617F, pseudokinase, mutation-specific inhibitor can provide benefit to patients with this mutation, in my mind, remains intact. Again, the same models and the same team that predicted what 989 would do in patients that tell me, and I'm looking at data with them, this is what should happen in the clinic with a 617F inhibitor.
As you may remember, again, from what we told the story, preclinically, we thought we needed exposure -- a certain exposure to cover the IC-35 with 617F to find that therapeutic window between the wild type and the mutated clone. We need to continue to escalate the dose. We haven't reached exposures that answer the question either way. So nobody should think that we have negative data. We just need more data at higher doses, continued dosing and higher exposures to really understand what's going on.
Now I believe in the program. I believe in our lead drug. We also have backup programs as we always do. When there' is an area for us like MPN that you have to dominate, you always have a backup plan. And we have backup molecules for the 617F program. That doesn't mean we've given up on the lead. The lead is very much alive. We're going to have data next year, and then we'll talk about it. In the meantime, we're accelerating other parts of the program.
Excellent. So maybe shift gears beyond MPN. So another core component of the business is the [ I&I ] franchise. So with Opzelura and povo. So maybe I don't know, as it stands, how do you kind of think about the opportunity set for both of those? And where do you kind of see this specific kind of therapeutic area as part of the growth story for Incyte in the future?
Yes. It's obviously secondary to hematology, but it's important. On Opzelura, I'll just cover off on that and then talk about povo. Business is in very good fundamentally position right now. It's growing at a double-digit rate, both in the United States and internationally,and in AD and vitiligo. About 2/3 of our business is AD and about 1/3 of it is vitiligo. I'm agnostic in terms of utilization by condition. The topical AD market is growing because of a migration from topical corticosteroids to nonsteroidal topicals, all right? And we benefit from that and the other topicals that are out there benefit from it.
I see this as over the next 5 years, especially given the past several quarters of growth, if you just look at the momentum of the business, it's a 10% CAGR business between now and, call it, 2030, which means the business has the potential to 2x between now and then, right? I might be right or wrong, plus or minus a few percentage, but that's a pretty good ZIP code. Half of that growth could come from Europe, where we're going to get an indication for moderate AD. And then the other half will come from the United States. The one headwind with a product like Opzelura is pricing discounts, all right? We're managing those, and that's built into sort of our expectations for the business. It's a great product.
I don't think there's going to be another topical out there regardless of its mechanism that's going to be Opzelura in terms of clearance or its relief or onset of effect, all right? And it's a very economical product. This is not a budget buster for payers. So I think that business is solid. Povorcitinib, we expect to submit an NDA in the first half, early 2026. I think the HS market is an attractive category. There's some competitive intensity right there. I do believe it's fundamentally different than AD or psoriasis, which are single cytokine-mediated conditions, IL-4/13, IL-23 on the psoriasis side. It's inflammation [ soup ].
I think a broad anti-inflammatory effect like the one that povorcitinib delivers is highly relevant. The most attractive part of the profile for povo, and you feel when you talk to our derms about this, is the effect it has on pain relief and flare control. And 30% of people have a 30% improvement in pain on the NRS. Flare control looks good. I think one of the most attractive aspects of that one feature is that half the pain benefit is achieved in the first 3 weeks. It's relevant because if you ask an HS specialist what they're worried about, they'll say 2 things. First, making people feel better because pain is the cardinal symptom. Second is make them look better, meaning clear their skin because they get to keep the scars if they have them. When you look at the market, you have advanced systemic therapies, oral, us, maybe AbbVie. On the other side, you got the IL-17s, Cosentyx, BIMZELX, potentially [ MoonLake ].
I think this drug will get half its use pre-biologic, and half its use post biologic. I think there's an attractiveness in terms of its mechanism of action, oral formulation, pain benefit. And I believe there's a challenging only because it's competitive, but very feasible path to a sizable product. I think the estimates for the size of the HS market range for me in a more realistic range of about $5 billion to $6 billion unrealistically. I shouldn't say unrealistically. Optimistically, it's maybe a $10 billion market.
A lot of assumptions there based on price penetration of the prevalence. But this will be a significant product for us, layering in prurigo nodularis. It's an itch condition. Disease would basically be made for JAK inhibitors. I think we'll generate meaningful sales there. And then you have vitiligo, which is a category that we created. Everybody that's got a BSA of greater than 8% would probably take an oral before they would apply a topical. Immunology will be important. We'll look to build out that business. I don't -- product line depth and breadth is important. It creates operating leverage. You don't want to be in the middle of the tennis court in terms of the number of products you have. It may never be as big as hematology or oncology, but it will be important to us.
Got you. So I guess in terms of like where you think that could be expanded, I mean, is there -- is that kind of like your focus for M&A? And I guess, what's your ethos on kind of pursuing business development across the 3 different areas you kind of focused on right now?
Yes. We'll think broadly about BD. And you never know where you have to fish. We don't have control over necessarily all the opportunities. Clearly, our focus and priorities probably in this order are anything in hematology. We're zeroed in on MPNs right now, but hematology in general. Oncology, look, that's a war zone. We have to be smart about where we go. We have some principles, which is, one, have a competitive winning compound. You got to be early if you're not first. And then you got to believe your position is defensible. And we'll be very targeted in how we approach solid tumors.
And then the third is immunology. And I'm pretty agnostic about that. I think the pressure to fill pipelines is unforgiving, and you can't be a purist about it. But we'll never do a deal that stretches sort of our framework in terms of strategy operations. And of course, there's the financial component of it. I do believe every -- each area we're in has a franchise strategy. You need a portfolio, and there are advantages to having a portfolio. For example, if we were to enter a new therapeutic area, I'd never enter a new therapeutic area unless you could build a product line to go after one asset, not have a line of sight to what else you can put in that business or that vertical, I think, is long term, not a smart move, not smart.
Understood. And then going back to Opzelura, I think you said, again, maybe that could double by like 2030. Is that just the in-line indications and not expansion? And I guess, how do you think about expansion opportunities for Opzelura?
I mean we have 2 potential expansion opportunities. It's -- but it's our base business right now. And I can piece that together between the U.S. and internationally pretty easily without heroic assumptions, could get an indication for HS. I think that's underappreciated right now. That's probably a '27, '28 opportunity. We have some PN data. I think we have one positive and one negative. I haven't baked that into any future assumptions, although that's not a 0% probability, but I think it's low. I think with AD and vitiligo with U.S. and international, layer in HS, you get to that number reliably.
So a quick comment there. Obviously, the HS -- the number of patients compared with vitiligo and AD is much smaller. But it's actually been very interesting when we released that data and we started talking to KOLs. I can tell you some HS KOLs will tell you every patient with HS should be an Opzelura. So I think the opportunity is real. Of course, the magnitude is different than the others, but I think it's pretty meaningful.
We've heard there's been some usage already among the KOLs we've talked to you. So with povo, I guess, again, how do you kind of think about some of these other indications that CSU and the asthma. And again, seemingly kind of high-risk, high-reward opportunities, but that relative to kind of the core kind of indications that you mentioned before?
Yes. The 3 indications we have are plenty to build a big drug just on those alone. And I like to focus on what's likely, not what's possible. But as it relates to CSU and you commented or asthma, we have -- we're going to prove -- we have proof-of-concept data on CSU. We have to take that data to the FDA. And we're evaluating that right now. Asthma is really interesting. But it's also a very competitive space with Dupixent, the IL-5s and the T slips and -- but there's not a lot of oral options. If those data break our way and we have a meaningful improvement in FEV1, we may be looking at signs of exacerbations, let's say, there could be a move into respiratory. Now if we go into respiratory, you'd want more than one product in respiratory. And there's some early-stage stuff out there that could be interesting. And I think we'll look at each one of those. If we believe the return justifies the investment and the probability of success is reasonably high, then you could see us going into those areas for sure.
Got you. And then maybe last couple of minutes on oncology, kind of the third pillar. We got some data coming at ESMO this year. Maybe Pablo, if you want to highlight and walk us through what to expect.
Certainly. So we're very excited about -- I mean, about showing data in 2 programs for the first time. And I think there's been a lot of questions understandably, what are we doing with G12D, what are we doing with the TGF-beta receptor 2 by PD-1 bispecific. So you're going to find out soon enough what we're doing. I think we have a competitive G12D program. Without the data in front of us, it's hard to convince you. So let's be patient. The data are coming. We need to demonstrate that -- and our focus has been strong focus in pancreatic cancer with a secondary focus in colorectal cancer for the G12D program. So what we need to demonstrate is that we have a competitive profile when it comes to response rate vis-a-vis what's been disclosed for other competitive programs and that we have a differentiated safety profile.
And the answer to both questions is yes. What we're trying to do is accelerate as much as possible combination with chemotherapy and get into first-line pancreatic cancer as fast as possible. We know where our competitors are. So we're tracking that, but that's the plan. Over time, the way our data evolves and now the data from existing and new competitors, we continue to reassess the program, as Bill has said many times. We'll continue to make sure that this is a place where we can win. And if we can't, we'll take measures. We'll be prudent with the use of capital in these indications.
Colorectal is a little bit more straightforward. We believe if we can combine with an EGFR inhibitor for certain patients in colorectal cancer that are treated with EGFR background, that's an advantage compared with some of our existing competitors when it comes to safety profile. That's G12D. TGF-beta by PD-1, we think we have the only bispecific out there that addresses both mechanisms of immune exclusion in solid tumors, PD-1 and TGF-beta. We'll show data. It's going to be in a range of tumor types. We're very intrigued by the colorectal data that we have. So let's talk about it at ESMO when we have the data, but we're really excited about both programs.
All right. Cool. Well, gentlemen, we'll leave it there. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you.
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Incyte — Wells Fargo 20th Annual Healthcare Conference 2025
Incyte — Wells Fargo 20th Annual Healthcare Conference 2025
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Fokus: Incyte positioniert sich als Spezialist für myeloproliferative Neoplasien (MPN) plus Immunologie und Onkologie und will Jakafi-Umsatz durch Produktfluss ersetzen statt durch Kostensenkung.
- Management: Neuer CEO Bill Meury (ca. 60 Tage im Amt) betont 2–3‑Jahres-Plan zur Konfiguration einer langlebigen Produktpipeline.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- MPN‑Portfolio: Fünf gezielte Programme (u.a. 989 mCALR‑mAb, V617F Inhibitor, BET, bispezifisch, undisclosed) mit Priorität auf ET und MF.
- Jakafi‑Brücke: Geplanter Launch von Jakafi XR Mitte 2026; Management erwartet typische XR‑Konversionen von ~10–30% (Midpoint 20%).
- Kommerz & BD: Priorität für Zukäufe in Hämatologie; selektive Opportunitäten in Onkologie und Immunologie.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- 989‑Readouts: Erste Daten in ET auf EHA (Juni) präsentiert; weitere ET‑Daten und MF (Single‑Agent + Kombi mit Jakafi) bis Jahresende geplant; Pivotalstart in ET angestrebt 2026.
- Formulierung: Subkutan‑Formulierung für 989 in Entwicklung, Update 2026; Basisplan: Phase III Second‑Line per IV.
- 617F‑Status: Programm weiter in Dosiseskalation; höhere Expositionen erforderlich, Daten in 2026 erwartet.
- I&I & Onkologie: Opzelura starkes Momentum (Management skizziert ~10% CAGR bis 2030); Povorcitinib (HS) NDA H1 2026; Daten zu G12D und TGFβ×PD‑1 bei ESMO.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Jakafi‑Ersatz: Wie viel Erhalt durch XR vs. neue Assets? Management nennt XR als Teil, aber Wert wird von Next‑Gen‑Therapien bestimmt.
- Pivotaldesign: Diskussion mit FDA über neuartige Endpunkte (VAF, Megakaryozyten‑Reduktion) vs. klassische durable hematologic response.
- Dosing & Safety: IV vs. Subcu‑Pfad; Kombinationstoxizität mit Jakafi wurde als aktuell nicht besorgniserregend eingeschätzt, aber weitere Daten nötig.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Investoren sollten 2026‑Readouts (989, 617F, Jakafi XR, povorcitinib NDA, ESMO‑Onkologiedaten) als Kurstreiber sehen. Positiv: klarer strategischer Fokus und mehrere potenziell transformierende Programme. Risiko: klinische Unsicherheit, regulatorische Endpunkt‑Debatten und kommerzielle Umsetzung.
Incyte — Cantor Global Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone. My name is Eric Schmidt. I'm one of the analyst over at Cantor Fitzgerald. Welcome, everyone, to our Global Healthcare Conference. Thank you all for waking up early. I think you'll be rewarded with a special session. We actually have, for the first time at an investor conference, the company's relatively new CEO, Bill Meury. Thank you, Bill, for joining us.
Many of you also know Bill from his prior roles in the industry as an esteemed leader, and many of you also know Incyte's President and Head of R&D, Pablo Cagnoni. Thank you, Pablo, for being here. In the audience, I see the IR team from Incyte as well. We've got [ Alexis Smith ] and Greg Shertzer. Thanks, guys.
Bill, let's jump right into it. You've been on the job a little over a month, 2 months now. And why don't you just share with us a quick snapshot of where you think Incyte is today and what needs to happen going forward to make this a successful organization?
Yes. Thanks for being here. Yes, I've been here 60 days. I can tell you the reasons I joined, and there have been really no major surprises since I've gotten into the role. I think the company has got the potential for meaningful product flow. That was sort of the first threshold question that I asked and answered. I think that's the same question an investor would ask, a strategic would ask and any incoming CEO should ask. And I think about that in terms of both the marketed product line, that is ex Jakafi, as well as the early to late-stage pipeline. That's number one.
Number two, I think the company operates in the 2 most structurally attractive markets in biopharma, oncology and immunology, more specifically MPNs and immune-mediated skin conditions. And three, the company has got a strong financial profile in the short to medium term in terms of cash flow and a growing balance sheet. Focus right now is building a business for the post '29 period, where you can -- you look out, you see a double-digit growth business on a CAGR basis, let's say, minimal LOE exposure, multiple products as opposed to just one with $1 billion plus in potential and really healthy operating margins. And I think the 3 areas we're focused on hematology, oncology and immunology can all play meaningful roles in sort of building that profile in the next decade.
Okay. We were chatting earlier today about the Jakafi 2029 patent cliff, which it seems investors are exclusively focused on these days. So what needs to happen to successfully overcome that cliff and have long-term growth in this industry?
Yes. And I said this during the first earnings call. I definitely look at this as about more than building or filling a revenue gap and you literally try to build a product line that can produce these sort of durable cash flows. The core business is important, and I never take it for granted. And right now, ex Jakafi, that's Opzelura, Nktimvo and Monjuvi namely.
And fortunately, we're having a very good year. I think the fundamentals of the business are very strong. There should be no surprises in the third and fourth quarter, and I like the way that business looks. I'd point out that I think the launch of Nktimvo is very encouraging. It's a launch, and so it can be unpredictable. But our third and fourth quarter numbers, I expect to be positive.
The next piece of the puzzle is the late-stage pipeline. And there -- I call it the mid- to late-stage pipeline. There, we're focused on povorcitinib, and we'll submit an NDA for that in the first half of 2026. And then 989, the key there is to convert Phase I results into a Phase III program and FDA approval and then a really successful product. And then we have an earlier-stage pipeline with select solid tumor programs in pancreatic, ovarian and colorectal. Those programs will become clear as data are available at the end of the year.
When you step way back from this, I think a priority for us internally, and I think Pablo and I spend most of our time on this, is we have an asymmetrical advantage or differentiated knowledge and capabilities in MPNs. And if you look at companies of our size, scale and stage that are successful, often, you probably know this as well as I do, they have super focus in a specialized high-value segment and usually win through serial innovation. So what does that mean at Incyte? And we have 5 different targeted therapies at various stages of development for MF, PV and ET. Not all of them are going to work, but not all of them have to work.
You get 2 or 3 of those targeted therapies to market in that space. You could 2x Jakafi in a success scenario. Even if I'm half right, being successful with 989, 617, the bispecific maybe bet, we have an undisclosed discovery program is a priority for the company. We know that space better than anybody. We can be first only early and defend it. And I think that's key to sort of building this growth profile into the next decade.
Okay. Very clear in terms of your internal capital allocation and resource and where things are going to go. Thank you. What about external development and resource?
Yes, it's a good question. It's got to play at a part of our growth strategy. That's true at any company. I think it will become more prominent at Incyte. There are very few, as you know -- and I said this earlier, there are very few asymmetrical opportunities out there and derisked assets are -- can be quite expensive and it leaves little return for the buyer. We will think broadly about business development.
The key to success here is high throughput. You see a lot of things, create a framework. And then when you see something that makes sense, you're going to be prepared to act. We'll focus primarily on hematology and immunology, not looking to borrow a lot of unbounded downside risk and not rushing to do anything. As our pipeline continues to sort of advance and programs become more transparent and less opaque, that will sort of instruct how we approach business development. Acutely aware of how easy it is to turn $1 into $0.50 or less. But we'll be bringing in a new Head of Corporate Development in the third week of September and make sure that we see a lot of opportunities. And it requires, as you know, sort of this contradictory combination of patience and aggression. But you can only be ready to act if you see a lot of stuff, okay?
So that framework, it sounds like, isn't quite yet in place, but that is being recreated within itself?
I think it's going to be accelerated. There's a good business development group, solid people, a lot of commercial assessment group, just going to bring in a new head.
Okay.
And I have one follow-up question on that. You talked before this morning about how it is too expensive to get fully derisked assets, potentially the premium you have to pay, but then also you don't want to take the risk. So what's the sweet spot?
You know it when you see it. Look, I'd like to be 100% cautious versus 1% incautious. It's just like in R&D, business development is no different. You have to call balls and strikes and understand what you think the intrinsic value of a business is in your hands. And when you configure the portfolio, you're looking for a balance between some high-risk and high-reward assets and some things that have or kind of sure bets. I think when it comes to business development, we're going to focus on things that are mid- to late stage, near revenue in areas that we know so that we can actually assess the risk, operationally should be seamlessly integrated. And I think in hematology and immunology, we can do that.
So maybe coming back to your internal resource allocation. We understand the focus on MPNs, heme, et cetera, your core areas of strength. How do we think about the overall spending levels? Historically, Incyte has spent aggressively in R&D. And Pablo, we can bring you into this discussion, too. I'm sure you guys discuss and debate what the appropriate level of resourcing is for the internal pipeline?
Yes, it's a good question. And we are right now in the process of looking at operating expenses across the board. And I think it's not because we're getting ready for '29. It's because that's just good corporate hygiene. And I don't think you can hard code R&D as a percentage of revenue. But clearly, that percentage has got to come down. And it comes down 1 of 2 ways.
Sales go up and you get leverage. Or if sales don't go up, you have to start reprioritizing and looking very carefully at the investment. We're at a point right now where we're looking to generate real product flow, which is an unforgiving pressure, not just at Incyte, but at any company. And R&D prioritization is a daily responsibility.
In terms of SG&A, you got to look at it the same way. Every investment has got to be looked at carefully. And so as we get into 2026 and provide guidance, we'll provide our rationale for whatever our OpEx guidance is going to be. And then as we migrate through the '27, '28, '29 period, what I can tell you is it's going to be looked at very, very carefully. And whatever we come out with, we'll explain it.
Anything you want to add?
Well, I mean, I think the way I look at it, when people ask about what's the right number for R&D, I don't ever think there is a specific answer for that. I think it depends at a point in time. It depends on your pipeline. It depends what you're trying to address. I can tell you, Eric, in the past 2 years, we terminated 15 programs, including ALK2, oral PD-L1, LAG-3, LAG-3 bispecific, TIM-3. These were all clinical programs plus a number of earlier-stage programs that we have not disclosed.
So we're going to continue to have that discipline and probably get a little bit -- either raise the bar a little bit because we have a lot of programs, many of which I think are very interesting. I'm sure we'll talk about it in a few minutes. We're going to look at every program to see, can this address an existing medical need? And two, does it have a positive return on investment and there are different set of scenarios.
If it clears those 2 things, we're going to try to fund it. If it doesn't, we're going to terminate it. And for that, we're going to -- we are constantly looking -- it's not that we run a process at a specific point in time in the year. We're constantly looking at these programs, looking at the competitive landscape and addressing those 2 questions. Is there still a need that we can address? And do we have a path to have a good return on investment? If the answer is yes, we go. If the answer is no, we stop.
Okay. Let's at least briefly touch on the commercial side of the business. I know we want to spend a fair bit of time on the pipeline where there's a ton of investor interest these days. But before we get there, just on the MPN franchise and Jakafi in particular, how do you think about preserving value beyond 2029? I think we all see the great commercial trajectory that you're on right now through probably 2029. But what are your thoughts post patent exclusivity?
Yes. Obviously, the best way to preserve value in the MPN franchise is 989 and the other targeted therapies. As it relates to Jakafi XR, we'll resubmit to the FDA at the end of the year. Look, XR conversions fit into sort of a ZIP code, as you know. And you could sort of think about it on the low end of 10% or you could -- I would think about the high end of like 30%. Take the midpoint, 20%, where you're able to maintain $0.5 billion to $0.75 billion in revenue. That would be it working, okay?
And obviously, the payer environment is constantly evolving. We have several years where we can introduce a once-a-day Jakafi. And so it's a part of the formula, but obviously not a major part of the formula. And I think I'm very sober about how XR strategies work today as opposed to if you want to rewind 10 years ago, and that's how we think about it right now.
And then how do you think about the Opzelura franchise providing value? I know you got a PDUFA date this month even coming up. So let's talk about pediatric AD, but also just more how big a nut this provides you in terms of keeping revenue?
Yes. If you look at the current growth rate in the United States, and I'm just talking about AD and vitiligo, and you can throw pediatric in there, which I think is a safety signal, a positive safety signal. And you look at what we're doing in Europe, this business over the next 5 years should grow at about a 10% CAGR, which means you almost 2x -- roughly 2x the business over the next 5 years. That would be Opzelura working.
We're going to face -- in Europe, we're going to be launching it in AD for moderate AD. And we did $120 million in Europe with vitiligo. And so I'd expect AD could be 2x that, right? So that's going to be -- if you bridge from $650 million to call it, $1.1 billion, $1.2 billion, that's one piece of it. And then, of course, in the United States, most of the growth in the topical AD market is coming from migration of topical corticosteroids to nonsteroidal branded topicals. And that topical corticosteroid market is very, very large, and we're not the only ones benefiting from. There are other nonsteroidal topicals out there.
And so I think between those 2 pieces, we have a 2x story here. And we got to keep it on track. It's a daily job. I think the numbers for the third and fourth quarter are going to be right in line with our guidance. We may get an indication for HS, which would be an incremental driver. But I think with AD and vitiligo, that's what we're thinking about.
Okay. And then the other product that you have that's doing quite well, axatilimab or Nictinvo. You already mentioned, Bill, that you're expecting better sales in the second half. How has your view on the overall size of this opportunity changed?
I think that in third line plus, you have Rezurock doing $500 million. In an order of entry analysis, you'd say you do somewhere south of that, maybe not much south, but call it, $300 million to $500 million if you keep this business on the current trajectory. And I always sort of point out, and you know this, product launches are very unpredictable. One quarter, they look good and the next quarter, they don't. And so we're still very much in the early innings here.
I think the key to success with Nktimvo long term, when you think about the size of the product will be the subcu and data in combination with a steroid or with Jakafi, which would move you into second line or earlier. Those studies are being done right now. So we have to see the data. I will tell you the response to therapy is really -- when you talk to BMT centers, high response rates, it's working across multiple organs, persistency with the drug is good. And so we're off to a good start. But I think long term, subcu in the 2 indications and all of a sudden, this becomes a very relevant part of that next decade growth profile.
Could you remind us when we're going to see some of that data moving earlier line? And do you think that an NCCN listing would be possible before approval?
It's a good question. In terms of the timing of the combination studies, I believe we're looking at end of '26, early '27 for both the combination with Jakafi and with the steroid.
Yes. We may get safety data with Jakafi sooner than that. We don't think that's going to lead to a compendia listing or to NCCN guidelines, but it's certainly -- if you know transplanters, I think that once the safety data with the combination with Jakafi are out, there might start to be increased utilization there.
Remember, chronic graft versus host disease, people tend to think about -- we all tend to think about this like lines of therapy in oncology, right? First, second, third, PFS goes down, duration of therapy goes down, very structured. It's not the way it works in chronic graft versus host disease. Almost everybody gets started on steroids. Patients are started and they're moved on and off different medications over time as they respond, then responses cease for a particular medication. Patients are reintroduced based on prior experience with. So it's a pretty dynamic treatment flow.
And fortunately, most of these patients are cured of their primary disease. So they have to manage this condition for a long period of time. So duration of therapy tends to be much longer. We think the combination with Jakafi is critical because, honestly, talking to KOLs when we got the AGAVE data, they asked us to please try to find a steroid-free regimen for patients with chronic graft versus host disease. So that's the impetus behind that, which is why we want to have the safety data to show as soon as possible.
Let's get into the pipeline.
Let's do it.
Where do you want to start?
I'm happy to start anywhere. These are all my children. I love them equally.
I think everyone in the audience wants to start with mCALR. So let's start with that.
Okay. Let's start with that.
Why don't you just briefly recap why this is an exciting molecule. I think most of us see it as such. And then maybe more importantly, preview what we're going to see in myelofibrosis later this year?
Sure. So I think the reason we'll be excited with 989 is it's the first targeted therapy for MPNs, which is a broad group of diseases. In this case, mutant CALR specifically for about 25% of the patients with essential thrombocythemia and 35% of the patients with myelofibrosis. So first targeted therapy. And when you look at the evolution of treatment in malignant hematology over the last 20 years, when targeted therapies work, they take over specific markets. And that's been demonstrated over and over and over again over the past couple of decades.
We presented over the past few years, the clear thesis why we thought this was a well-differentiated therapy, and we presented a lot of preclinical models that we developed in-house that showed -- that made a number of predictions as to what the therapy would do in patients. And those were that it would selectively suppress the malignant clone in patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms, and that would lead to improved outcomes, which are different for different diagnoses, ET and MF. And the predictions were made over and over based on preclinical data.
At EHA, a couple of months ago, we showed clinical data for the first time. And I think it's fair to say that those predictions turn out to be true in the ET data set. 989 was safe. There were minimal side effects, and there were questions about some aspects that we can discuss. But fundamentally, all the patients but one at that time stayed on therapy, only one was -- had an adverse event, which was unrelated to the drug.
Two, it normalized platelets. And I think it's a very important distinction between reducing platelets and normalizing platelets. You can reduce platelets with any cytotoxic. You reduce platelets, right? You kill megakaryocytes in the bone marrow, platelets go down, all of them. What 989 does uniquely is it normalizes platelets. You start 989, platelets drop and they stop dropping when they get to the normal level. What that tells you is you're suppressing the malignant megakaryocytes but not touching the normal ones. So your platelet count stays normal, okay?
It was well tolerated over extended periods of time. And importantly, you reduce the allele burden in those patients. And even more importantly, when you look at the CALR-positive megakaryocytes in the bone marrow, that is a factory of malignant cells in ET. It dramatically reduced it. We have data in only a handful of patients, but consistently in those patients, we show that it does that.
So this tells you, number one, the drug affects clinically valid endpoints, platelet normalization and over time, that should lead to thrombotic event reduction. And number two, it has the ability to potentially change the natural history of the disease by specifically suppressing the malignant clones. So that's what we know today.
As Eric mentioned, we're going to have more data before the end of the year. We're going to update the ET data. We're going to present a broader translational picture, and we're going to show for the first time data in patients with myelofibrosis that will include both single-agent data and combination with Jakafi. We believe it's really important to convey the picture what it does as a single agent on traditional endpoints. Again, in MF, that would be symptoms, spleen, anemia as well as the same translational endpoints that we showed in ET,VAF reduction and megakaryocyte -- malignant megakaryocyte reduction.
The combination with Jakafi is important. Jakafi imperfect as it is, improves symptoms, shrink spleens and improves survival in first-line MF patients with intermediate or high-risk disease. So the combination with Jakafi is an important part of the development plan for 989, which is not to say that single-agent activity is not important. We recognize that, and we intend to show that data as well.
That's a great summary. Tell us about the regulatory framework here. I mean, in some ways, you've got a modern-day targeted, innovative disease-modifying therapy, but the regulators have created a system that forces you into kind of an old-school framework for development?
Yes, it's interesting, right, because we -- Incyte created a system. I mean the TSS SVR endpoint was invented by Incyte well before Bill or I were around to get Jakafi approved because it was noticed that Jakafi because of the broad antiinflammatory effect, improved symptoms very rapidly and spleen shrinks very well. Although I would add, the spleen reduction SVR35, first-line patients with Jakafi is between 30% and 40%, COMFORT-1, COMFORT-2 and the pelabresib control arm. So there's a lot of room for improvement there.
TSS has been proven harder to improve upon, as you all know. So look, the conversation with FDA will be we have a different drug with a different mechanism. We recognize the importance of those symptoms. Let's try to take a broader look, not to move those away, but to maybe add to those in a composite endpoint, taking advantage of what 989 does in affecting the burden of the disease.
Every patient on Jakafi progresses. Average duration of therapy is 20 to 24 months. Every patient with MF today ties to progressive MF that either becomes spent because of fibrosis in the marrow or transforms to leukemia. We're trying to change that with 989. We want to have a collaborative discussion with FDA here how we can do that. I think in ET, it is more straightforward. I think it's hematologic response. We would like to add VAF. We would like to add some translational endpoints to that because we think are important for prescribers to know. We'll see how the conversation goes with FDA.
So if you were to have a composite endpoint in MF that also included VAF, I guess it just depends on the weighting then because Jakafi is not going to have that much of an impact on VAF in 6 months.
Yes. We don't really -- I don't think so. Look, the data we have with Jakafi from the COMFORT study is any 6-month 7F data, and the impact was minimal. I mean it took a long, long time to see minimal reductions. So that's part of the story. Are symptoms the only way to look at this or does anemia matter? We do know that some patients actually need to be transfused to stay on Jakafi full dose because of anemia.
So maybe that's something that if 989 does what we expect, which is over time, reduces the size of the malignant clone and gives more "space" to the benign clone to expand, that could help with the anemia over time. So that could be part of the story. I honestly don't have it yet in my head. Emerging data over the next few months will help us crystallize it.
And one more on the anemia. I guess, one potential on-target issue could be worsening of anemia. Did you see any worsening of anemia in the ET patients that [ have been ] presented already?
Look, I don't think -- 989 is a very selective drug. And if you don't have both a mutation -- a mutated colored protein and a tPA receptor, the drug doesn't hit the cells. So obviously, when you do a Phase I study in patients with ET, many of whom were already on a cytoreductive therapy, you're going to see anemia. Is that related to 989? At this point, I find it hard to believe. I think time will tell. I'm not concerned about the safety profile of 989 at this point.
How do we think about bispecific approach here relative to your naked antibody?
Yes. So we have a bispecific program. We designed that specifically to work in as good as 989 is, it may not cure everybody. So patients that escape 989, we designed a bispecific with a mutant CALR arm that binds to a different epitopes. So that's the idea, either patients that need something more potent for whatever reason or that did not respond to 989 for whatever reason. That's the plan with the bispecific.
If you look at the ET data, I think in ET doesn't seem to -- there's going to be room for bispecific based on the data that we've seen so far. I think in certain patients with MF, that might be different. We'll find out when we see the data. I think it's very different from the approach our competitors are taking that basically binds to the same epitope. So I think it will be tricky to use it in patients that are resistant.
Now in first-line MF, if you combine with Jakafi, remember, Jakafi reduces T cell function. So the combination of a bispecific T-cell engager with a T cell suppressor may not be the best idea. So I'm not sure there's going to be room for the bispecific in first-line MF.
We've only got 2 more minutes. I think we can only do one more drug.
Okay? You pick.
Povo?
Povo, okay.
I mean I think the Street has a kind of lackluster view toward your data. Obviously, HS is a very competitive marketplace. Why are we wrong?
Look, I think some people are right, some people are wrong out there about Povo. Let's be clear. What do we have, right? So we have the first oral therapy that showed efficacy positive -- 2 positive Phase III trials. Let's also agree that the endpoints of the trials were used, the primary endpoints were artificial endpoints created for regulatory purposes, okay? There's nothing that tells the patient whether you are between HiSCR 50 or 75 and patients are counting their nodules to see they feel better. They should feel better because they have fewer nodules.
Patients have pain, patients have flares and patients have high inflammatory lesions like draining tunnels. And those 3 measures, we think povo is what the true nature of the povo benefit resides, dramatic and fast improvement in pain, reduction in flares and improvement of high inflammatory lesions, and we'll provide an update in the near future about some of these endpoints in more detail for you. All that with an oral -- the first oral in HS.
I think that's the value. Are some patients going to start with the biologics? That's probably true. Other patients would prefer to start with an oral. Either way, I think over time, I just don't see a market where people go from one IL-17 to another to another to another, Eric. I think you switch mechanisms. And all these drugs are going to stop working. None are going to cure HS. This is not a funnel like oncology. It's more like a rectangle. People don't tend to die. They have a chronic disease, they have to manage for a lifetime. And I think there's going to be room for povo to be an important drug in this disease.
Strong arguments, Pablo. Bill, Pablo, we're out of time. So thank you very much. We can go on forever, but we'll have to cut it short. Thanks, everyone, for joining, and we'll get ready for our next session.
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Incyte — Cantor Global Healthcare Conference 2025
Incyte — Cantor Global Healthcare Conference 2025
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Kurzfassung: Neuer CEO Bill Meury (≈60 Tage) positioniert Incyte als fokussierten Spezialisten für hämatologische Neoplasien (MPNs) und Immunologie neben bestehenden Produkten; Ziel: ein mehrfach-Produkt-Portfolio für nachhaltiges Wachstum nach dem Jakafi-Patentverfall 2029.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- MPN-Fokus: Priorität auf 5 gezielte Therapien (u.a. 989); Ziel: mehrere Treffer statt ein Blockbuster, Szenario mit 2x Jakafi bei Erfolg mehrerer Assets.
- Late-stage-Pipeline: Povorci tinib (povo) NDA-Einreichung in H1 2026 geplant; 989 soll von Phase‑I zu Phase‑III konvertiert werden, Kombinationsdaten mit Jakafi kommen.
- Kapitalallokation: Strengere R&D‑Disziplin (15 Programme terminiert), OpEx-Überprüfung, neue Leitung Corporate Development ab dritter Septemberwoche und gezielte, «high-throughput» M&A‑Prüfung.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Konkretes: NDA für povorcitinib H1 2026, XR‑Resubmission für Jakafi Ende des Jahres, Opzelura‑Wachstumserwartung ca. 10% CAGR über 5 Jahre; Zeitplan für Nktimvo‑Kombinationsdaten Ende 2026/Anfang 2027.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Patentrisiko: Wie Jakafi‑LOE 2029 abfedern? Management setzt auf 989/XR/Opzelura/Nktimvo statt einzelne Ersatzlösung.
- BD‑Strategie: Sweet spot: mid‑/late‑stage, nahe Umsatz, gering integrierbares Risiko; Fokus auf Hämatologie & Immunologie.
- Regulatorik & Endpunkte: Diskussion mit FDA über mögliche kombinierte/composite Endpunkte für 989 in MF (inkl. VAF/translationaler Daten) statt rein Symptombewertung.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Klarer, realisierbarer Plan, aber stark abhängig von wenigen klinischen Meilensteinen (NDA H1‑2026, 989‑Daten Ende 2026) und von erfolgreicher Kosten‑/R&D‑Priorisierung. Kurzfristig stabiler Cash‑Flow; mittelfristig hohe Kurskatalysatoren — gleichzeitig signifikantes klinisches und kommerzielles Ausführungsrisiko.
Incyte — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Greetings, and welcome to the Incyte Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Greg Shertzer, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, and welcome to Incyte's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, I'd encourage everyone to go to the Investors section of our website to find the press release related financial tables and slides that follow today's discussion. On today's call, I am joined by Bill, Christiana and Pablo, who will deliver our prepared remarks, Matteo, Mohamed and Steven will also be available for the Q&A.
I would like to point out that we will be making forward-looking statements, which are based on our current expectations and beliefs. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially. I encourage you to consult the risk factors discussed in our SEC filings for additional detail.
I will now hand the call over to Bill.
Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. Before I get started and on behalf of the Incyte management team and the employees, I'd like to thank and recognize Herve for his leadership and commitment to Incyte over 10 years. His contributions to this company were invaluable and greatly appreciated, and we wish him the best in his retirement.
As you know, I started at Incyte very recently, roughly 30 days ago. And so before jumping into the quarterly results, I'd like to touch on 2 fundamental questions I've been asked since joining Incyte. The first one is, what specifically attracted me to the company. And second, what are my initial thoughts on strategic priorities. In response to the first question, I naturally studied the company and the business in great detail and spoke to many different stakeholders, including physicians, patients and investors before joining. And my initial impression is that Incyte has all the intrinsic characteristics of a high-quality growth business. That is the potential for new meaningful product flow, attractive markets, R&D and commercial capabilities and a strong balance sheet.
I believe there's a foundation in place and a path to value creation, but time is of the essence. The nontrivial challenge Incyte faces is navigating the company through 2029 and transitioning to a new set of durable product growth drivers.
On the potential for meaningful new product flow, Incyte has several important product launches between now and 2030. These products, of course, will vary in size. Some will contribute substantially and others incrementally to growth. But either way, there is substrate here. Marketed products Opzelura, Niktimvo, MONJUVI and pipeline compounds like 989, our mutant-CALR, monoclonal antibody and parvacitinib, our JAK1 specific inhibitor, have the potential to drive future sales growth and form the company's core. More work remains, of course, but we've made progress with these compounds scientifically and commercially. Opzelura is showing strong broad-based growth today across AD and Vitiligo, has close to 20,000 prescribers and has the potential for new indications in the coming years.
Niktimvo is off to a very strong start. Phase I results with 989 and ET are promising, and we will share data on MF at the end of the year. And finally, provacitinib could support at least 3 different indications. Next, Incyte operates in 2 of the most structurally attractive markets in the industry: hematology oncology and immunology. They're built on solid foundations of science, need and opportunity and we have differentiated knowledge and capabilities in these areas, and we'll focus on them.
And finally, Incyte has well-developed high-quality R&D and commercial capabilities. Yes, there have been R&D setbacks, and we need to convert science into regulatory approvals and business results, but I believe our discovery and development capabilities in our core areas are a competitive advantage.
Now regarding our strategic priorities, here's my initial thinking, and I will come back to you in the coming months with more specifics on the direction we plan to take the company strategically, operationally and financially. We intend to build a comprehensive plan for acceleration that goes beyond just filling a revenue gap. We'll take a fresh look at this business, including our R&D productivity, operating expenses and capital allocation and dedicate resources to accelerating product flow and growth.
My framework for the business will likely have the following set of priorities. First, take care of the core, that's straightforward, driving utilization of our major products in the short term is necessary for long-term success. Second, accelerate product development. Pablo and I have spent many hours on this topic. It's almost all we talk about. Our mid- to late-stage pipeline has the potential to unlock the next phase of growth for Incyte but there are still unanswered questions, which is not uncommon. 989 is arguably the most scientifically promising asset in the MPN space. as a targeted mutation-specific approach.
Our success will depend on translating early Phase I data into a regulatory approval and a marketed product, the medical need and the market potential for 989 is significant. If we're successful, 989 should trigger a fundamental shift in the treatment of MPNs like we've seen in other cancers.
For povacitinib, we have a clear incredible path to turning this into a major product for Incyte. Its success will be predicated on execution in areas where povacitinib can have differentiation such as HS, PN and Vitiligo. In HS, povocitinib could be the first oral option, which is perhaps the most challenging disease in dermatology. It's not like IL-3 mediate psoriasis or L413-mediated AD. It's more complex, involves more pathways, treatment success is variable. And so a new treatment option like povacitinib should be very marketable.
As it relates to our early-stage pipeline, the scientific rationale behind CDK2, G12D, TGFßR2xPD-1 for select solid tumors, among others, is strong. But as you know, early-stage projects inherently involve uncertainties. We will be continuously assessing these and other programs. They'll be put through a framework to be scored and compared to other programs based on strategic importance, PTRS, commercial potential and return on investment. And I recognize that every use of capital, R&D capital is an opportunity cost for other users.
Third, capital allocation. We're generating significant cash flow and have a growing balance sheet. The first call on capital will be the core business, our marketed products. The second is the late-stage pipeline and the third is business development. Sometimes our best investments will be inside the company. And other times, the reverse will be true. We'll have a governance mechanism for allocating capital internally and externally to ensure long-term growth and maximize shareholder value.
Regarding business development, we'll look hard at finding derisked pre-revenue or revenue stage opportunities. As you know, there are very few positive asymmetrical opportunities out there, and it's easy to mistakenly turn $1.50. We'll be careful about where and how much capital we put to work. But when strategically sourced appropriately priced and well executed, BD can create a lot of value. We will have a well-defined framework for BD, and we will look for opportunities that fit that framework.
Finally, it's important to keep a close eye on execution, converting science and strategic plans to results is the job. We'll run the business at a detailed level, enhance the quality and speed of decision-making inside the company and manage our expenses in a disciplined way, which means focusing on doing more with less versus more with more. I look forward to sharing more details on our strategic framework later this year.
Now moving to our second quarter results, which Christiana will review next. Jakafi demand remains very strong across 3 indications. Opzelura growth was exceptional across 2 indications, and the Niktimvo launch is exceeding expectations with rapid adoption among BMT centers, reinforcing its commercial potential. The growth prospects for these products are excellent if we continue to execute.
On the R&D front, we made excellent progress. We will release Phase I data on 989 and MF at the end of the year to supplement the data we presented at EHA in ET. We expect an FDA approval for Opzelura in pediatric patients 2 to 11 years of age with mild to moderate AD in September. And importantly, the pivotal trials for povacitinib and vitiligo and PN and combination trials with axatilimab and GVHD are enrolling on track.
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Christiana, who will provide the second quarter commercial and financial update.
Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. In Q2, we delivered strong financial results with total product revenues of $1.06 billion, representing an increase of 17% year-over-year, driven by continued demand growth for Jakafi and Opzelura as well as the contribution from the ongoing commercial launch of Niktimvo. Total revenues were $1.22 billion, up 16% versus the same period last year.
Turning to Jakafi on Slide 9. Jakafi net product revenue was $764 million for the second quarter, representing an 8% growth year-over-year, driven by paid demand, which also increased 8% versus the prior year period. Demand for Jakafi continued to grow across all indications. Channel inventory levels ended the quarter with a normal range. As a result of the strong demand in the first half of the year, we are raising our full year revenue guidance for Jakafi to a new range of $3 billion to $3.5 billion.
Turning now to Opzelura on Slide 10. Total net product revenue for the second quarter was $164 million, representing a 35% increase year-over-year. U.S. net product revenue of $132 million was up 19% year-over-year, driven by increased patient demand and refills in both atopic dermatitis and vitiligo. Channel inventory levels ended the quarter with a normal range. Ex U.S. net product revenues of $32 million loss were driven by continued uptake in France and Germany as well as the recent launches in Italy, Spain and Canada. In France and Italy, Opzelura has seen very rapid adoption.
Turning to Slide 11 and Niktimvo launch. Niktimvo net product revenues in the second quarter were $36 million, driven by high patient need and strong commercial execution. We continue to see positive launch metrics with widespread product awareness and interest. We have achieved roughly 82% account penetration with rapid and broad uptake in BMT centers across the U.S.
Since the beginning of the launch, over 4,000 infusions have been administered to an estimated 700 patients, representing approximately 10% of the third line plus GVHD market. Of all the patients that went on Niktimvo, approximately 80% to 90% remain on therapy today.
Turning now to other hematology/oncology products on Slide 12. Net product revenues for the second quarter were $131 million, representing a 66% year-over-year increase. This is primarily driven by the commercial launch of Niktimvo as well as increased contribution from ZYNYZ following the approval in ICAC. As a result of the strength of the Niktimvo launch, higher demand for ZYNYZ and the earlier than anticipated approval for MONJUVI in FL, we are raising our full year revenue guidance for other oncology products to a new range of $500 million to $520 million.
Moving on to Slide 13 and our operating expenses. During the second quarter, we recorded a benefit of $242 million from the contract dispute settlement with Novartis, relating to Jakafi royalty payments through the first quarter of 2025. The settlement also resulted in a reduction in COGS, driven by an ongoing 50% reduction in the royalty rate payable to Novartis. As a result, we are reducing the lower end of our COGS guidance. The revised guidance range is now 8% to 9% of net product revenues.
Shifting now to R&D. Total R&D expenses on a GAAP basis were $495 million for the second quarter, excluding the onetime [indiscernible] cost in 2024 and other onetime expenses in both years, R&D expenses increased 8% year-over-year, driven by continued investment in our late-stage development assets. In the first half of the year, we entered into 2 new development collaborations with Genesys and Biotherixs. As a result of the upfront and ongoing expenses related to these new collaborations we are increasing our full year guidance for R&D by $35 million to a new range of $1.965 billion to $1.995 billion.
Moving to SG&A. Total GAAP SG&A expenses were $331 million for the second quarter. Excluding the onetime costs for the prior year, GAAP SG&A expenses increased 16% year-over-year primarily driven by increased legal costs related to the Novartis contract dispute settlement and other matters and timing of certain consumer marketing activities. Finally, we continue to execute on our commitment to grow operating expenses at a slower pace than revenues. Ongoing operating expenses in the second quarter of 2025 increased 13% year-over-year compared to a 16% increase in revenues during the same period, leading to continued increase in operating leverage and margins. Given the very strong performance of our commercial portfolio in the first half of the year, and based on our updated guidance for the year, we expect net product revenues for the full year to grow at a rate of 14% to 17% year-over-year and ongoing operating expenses to grow at a rate of 5% to 7%, leading to further expansion in operating margins.
I'll now turn the call over to Pablo for an R&D update.
Thank you, Christiana, and good morning, everyone. As we highlighted a year ago when we summarized on this slide, our portfolio remains on track to deliver more than 10 launches by 2030. Moving to Slide 16. The Phase I data in essential thrombocytemia for INCA-C339a9, our mutant-CALR monoclonal antibody was presented at EHA 2025. 9a9 is the first truly targeted therapy for a subset of patients with MPNs that includes 25% of patients with essential thrombocytemia and 35% of patients with myelofibrosis.
Importantly, this data set demonstrated the normalization of platelet counts in patients with ET, which is consistent with the mechanism of action of 9a9 and a key point of differentiation from ceroductive therapies. 9a9 was very well tolerated with only one out of 49 patients discontinued therapy. It is very reassuring that at this point in the development of 9a9, it appears to have an excellent safety profile. We also observed rapid and sustained reductions in VIF in most patients despite the short follow-up for patients in the highest dose cohorts. We believe this data will continue to improve as it matures, delivering an important outcome for patients.
Treatment with 9a9 also resulted in a reduction in mutant-CALR positive megacarocides in the bone marrow as well as a reduction in mutant-CALR positive, CD34 positive stem and progenitor cells in peripheral blood, confirming the potential of 9a9 to be a disease-modifying therapy that offers a potential path to a cure.
On Slide 17, let me summarize the key steps for the 9a9 development plan. We will advance this program with great urgency with the goal of starting pivotal trials in ET by early 2026. We continue to gather data and have expanded certain dose cohorts to better understand what the optimal doses for further development. We are committed to presenting data in MF as monotherapy and in combination with ruxolitinib by the end of the year.
Additionally, we have established a collaboration with QIAGEN to develop a co-diagnostic across MPN, with an initial focus in CALR mutations. Importantly, we continue to develop a subcutaneous formulation, and that work is ongoing. We believe that initially, the IV formulation every 2 weeks is acceptable, but we'll work to advance a subcu in parallel.
Turning to our dermatology portfolio, starting on Slide 18. I'm pleased to share an important update on ruxolitinib cream. As you know, Opzelura currently approved in the U.S. for the treatment of adult and adolescent patients with mild to moderate atopic dermatitis and vitiligo and in Europe for the treatment of Vitiligo. Today, we announced the top line results from the pivotal Phase III TRuE-AD4 study which evaluated ruxolitinib cream in adult patients with moderate atopic dermatitis with extensive body surface area involvement of 10% to 20% and significantly impair quality of life with a DLQI greater than 10.
I'm happy to report that the TRuE-AD4 study met its co-primary endpoints at week 8 with statistically significantly larger proportion of patients receiving 1.5% rock screen compared to vehicle, achieving both IGA-TS and EC75. A week ROCK screen demonstrated a vehicle adjusted difference in IGA-TS of 47.6% and a vehicle adjusted difference in EC75 or 51.4% and both highly statistically significant. In addition, the study met all key secondary endpoints, further reinforcing the efficacy profile of Ruxolitinib cream in this patient population.
Importantly, the safety profile observed in TRuE-AD4 was consistent with previously reported data in atopic dermatitis. Ruxolitinib cream was well tolerated, and no new safety signals were observed. This result confirms that ruxolitinib cream is a highly effective treatment option for patients with moderate AD who are eligible for systemic therapies. Based on the results of the study, plans are underway to submit a Type 2 variation for Opzelura in Europe, where there's a strong demand for innovative topical therapies in patients that have failed topical corticosteroids or topical calcineurin inhibitors.
Looking ahead, we plan to present the full Phase III top line results at an upcoming medical meeting, and we look forward to engaging with regulators to discuss next steps for potential label expansion. Moving to Slide 19 and the near-term opportunities for povarncitinib. We're advancing povocitinib in 3 indications and believe this represents significant opportunities for near-term revenue and long-term value creation. The positive Phase III data in patients with moderate to severe HS, which affects over 300,000 patients in the U.S. will be our first submission for povacitinib and will support worldwide regulatory filings in 2026.
The Phase III studies in patients with vitiligo and Paridadolaris are progressing well, and we anticipate presenting data in 2026 with potential approvals in 2027. 2025 is a pivotal year for Incyte with over 18 key milestones, including 4 new product launches for pivotal trial readouts, at least 3 Phase III study initiations and 7 proof-of-concept study results. As shown on Slide 20, we have already achieved several of these milestones with multiple important catalysts still to come. I would like to note that the initiation of our BET Phase III study is now planned for the second half of the year, pending regulatory feedback and the release of V617F Phase I data has shifted from the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026. We look forward to sharing additional updates on these milestones in the second half of 2025.
I will now turn it back over to Bill for his closing remarks.
Thanks, Pablo. To summarize the key takeaways before we open the line for Q&A. Our second quarter sales and growth for our key products were strong, resulting in revenue guidance being increased for the full year. Next, we are making excellent progress with our R&D pipeline, both for hematology/oncology as well as for I&I. Lastly, our focus is converting science and strategic plans into product flow and generating durable revenue and cash flow. That concludes our prepared remarks.
Kevin, please open up the line and give your instructions for Q&A.
[Operator Instructions]
Our first question today is coming from Jay Olson from Oppenheimer.
2. Question Answer
Welcome to Bill. It's a pleasure to reconnect with you, especially after having had the pleasure of working with you in the past. Thank you so much for outlining your strategic vision and the rigorous prioritization process that you're planning. Can you just share with us your thoughts on the relative importance of the 3 therapeutic areas at Incyte oncology, hematology, immunology. Do any of those get prioritized in your strategic plan? Or are you agnostic to therapeutic area?
Yes. Look, it's a good question, Jay. It should be pretty clear to everybody that MPNs is our most important therapeutic area right now. I think we have we have, as a company, an asymmetrical advantage in that space. I believe there's a window of opportunity here to completely transform the treatment of that group of blood cancers. As you know, targeting driver mutations in MPNs is the Holy Grail. I mean if you talk to a hematologist and ask, would you rather use a targeted monoclonal antibody versus a pathway approach, they'll select the target approach every time.
We have, potentially the ability to create a series of innovations. Obviously, starting with 9a9, we have 617. We have a bispecific, we also have compounds in discovery. And when you have an opportunity to sort of dominate and control and never see the market, you got to take advantage of it. And so strategically speaking, that is our #1 priority. And I think we can set a new standard of care in MPNs said what I would describe as a new high watermark.
Now look, no one should take my word for it. We have to convert, as I said, science into results. And of course, the progress that we're making with 9a9 has been incredibly important. I think in I&I, I do believe that there's a credible path to building a large product. We're not, for example, with povorcitinib, copying all the indications for RINVOQ. And I do believe we have differentiated knowledge and capabilities in the 3 immune-mediated skin conditions that we're targeting. And we do have a franchise strategy with Opzelura and povorcitinib which other companies don't have.
The product has the potential to be first in HS, first in vitiligo. And I think [indiscernible] was a disease made for JAKKS. And so I like the potential there. And as it relates to our oncology business, Jay, there are certain principles that you have to apply, find the right product first, pick a winning market and make sure that you can defend that position. And we will apply those principles and make sure we make good decisions as it relates to the other programs that we're developing for solid tumors.
Beyond those 3 areas, look, the pressure to the pressure to fill a pipeline in biopharma. This is true not just at Incyte, but it's true that every company is pretty unforgiving. We're focused on these areas right now. If we were to look at other areas, it would have to make sense strategically and operationally, and I would never stretch the capabilities of the company. But at the end of the day, what we're solving for is new product flow and the knowledge and skills we have in those 3 areas can be transferable.
Next question is coming from Tazeen Ahmad from Bank of America.
I just wanted to get a sense -- maybe this is for Pablo on the read-through from the MCALR data that you saw from ET and what to maybe expect to see for MF? And then related to that, you're going to show monotherapy as well as combo, but is there a minimal threshold that you're looking for, for activity on monotherapy, if you could just help set expectations for that, we'd appreciate it.
Thank you for the question. Look, let me make a couple of comments here. The important thing to remember is, mechanistically, mutant-CALR antibody 9a9 would work the same way in [indiscernible] that it does in ET. So whatever once preconception on the probably a success was before the ETE data, it certainly has to increase with AT data in hand, a, because of the safety that was so clean and b, because the efficacy, not only the clear normalization of platelet reduction in VIF and reduction in mutant-CALR positive [indiscernible] Was so clear in the ET data but because those were our fundamental based on the mechanism of action of the mutant color antibody.
So when we have that mechanistic clarity in a set of patients, the probability that will work on a different disease with the same molecular basis, is certainly high. The reason why we decided to shift the release of the data and [indiscernible] to later this year is, as you pointed out, because we want to have combination data with ruxolitinib. As we all know, ruxolitinib increases survival in first-line patients in patients with MF. And so we believe that the development of 9a9 in MF will be at least in part in combination with rux, which is why we wanted to have a more comprehensive data set when we present the data later this year.
In terms of specific numbers, what I would say is we would expect to see improvement in MF in all the basic endpoints that we've discussed over the years in MF patients. Obviously, spleen size reduction in volume reductions, improvement in symptoms, improvement in hemoglobin, perhaps and we expect to see a component of that in the data release later this year.
Next question is coming from Salveen Richter from Goldman Sachs.
Just a follow-up to 2 comments that were mentioned earlier. One is initial data for 617 is now expected in the first half of '26. And should we read anything into this delay? And then secondly, you talked about the enthusiasm for [indiscernible] in the HS market and its competitive differentiation. Maybe just walk us through that, particularly when you look in the context of superior efficacy that we've seen for some of the currently approved therapies such as BINZLEX?
Great, Salveen. I'll answer the second question, and Pablo, why don't you take the first question.
Certainly. So, this is simply related to the fact that this is a Phase I dose escalation study. And you make projections when you start the studies about what dose will give you a certain exposure that will be sufficient in this case, to reach the IC-35, which we've been talking about over the years about inhibiting the mutated cells. It turns out we need higher doses than we expected, you always need a certain amount of follow-up in these patients.
As you know, in MF, data needs to mature a little bit because of those 2 reasons, the data has moved to the first half of 2026. Importantly, we have opened the study also now to patients with ET and PV. So the study is progressing well. We simply need higher dose levels with a longer follow-up to get the kind of data that we're willing to release. Our conviction of the mechanism on this program continues to be strong, and this is simply a matter of escalating a little bit further.
And then Salveen, on HS and povorcitinib and if Mohamad -- excuse me, Matteo has any comments he can add. First of all, as you know, it's one of the most challenging conditions in in dermatology, ask any dermatologists that IL-17s don't work almost half the time.
One dermatologist described high-score 50 or even 75 as a beauty contest. It's very hard to compare high score rates from one study to the next. The condition, as you know, is fundamentally different than IL-23 mediated psoriasis or IL-4/13 mediated AD. That is to say it's inflammation suit. There are multiple pathways involved. If you ask a dermatologist, what's most important, they'll first say, make the patient feel better and then make them look better, meaning clearance. And this is a quality of life condition. If you look at the data from povorcitinib and you look at the effect that the drug has on pain and flare control, it's pretty remarkable, and it's a very competitive data set.
It also does you get out past week 12 at week 16 or 18, those clearance rates are in the 50% range. And if you look at the effect of the drug across all those end points, clearance pain, flare control, half the effect is in the first 3 weeks. So I believe that a systemic option like povorcitinib is going to have a place in the treatment paradigm for HS. Whether they're starting with povorcitinib and then go into a biologic or they go to a biologic and then to povorcitinib. I don't think anyone has a clear view on the future, but this is a condition that there's a lack of treatment options we have good data. And when you look at the totality of the evidence, there's going to be a place for povorcitinib as well as the IL-17s.
Our next question today is coming from Salim Syed from Mizuho Securities.
I guess maybe one for us on Niktimvo. So you had a good beat again on the quarter. And obviously, the J-code went into effect here around April -- April 1, I believe. Can you maybe comment to some of the intra-quarter dynamics there that you saw from the JK going into effect? Or do you describe the strength of the quarter to any other particular part of the launch? And I don't think you guys mentioned the inventory impact there for the quarter for me just remind us what the inventory impact was for the quarter.
Yes. Thanks for the question. I'll give you my overall assessment and either Mohamad or Christiana can fill in some of the details. As Christiana said, we're 5 months in, and we're at a 10% penetration of that third, fourth line market. And what we watch on a weekly basis and which is important for any new product launch is what do your new patient starts look like. Every pharmaceutical products like a leaky bucket and you have to maintain the same is true with Opzelura. You have to maintain new patient starts.
So when I look at the dynamics underneath Niktimvo, that's what I'm focused on. This product over the next 5, 6, 7 months, say, the balance of the year has the potential to reach over 1,000 patients. That would be a very, very good first year.
If you take a look at the adoption curve, for example, of Sanofi's Resuroc and you look at the adoption curve right now for Niktimvo, they're both in the same ZIP code. Now New product launches are very unpredictable. They can be fickle and there can be a lot of choppiness from quarter-to-quarter. But I like the momentum, the underlying momentum of the business right now. As you heard, over 80% of BMT centers in the United States are using Niktimvo. That's also important because you need a large group of users, prescribers or in this case, accounts.
The other thing that is reassuring to me is we have 4,500 infusions and roughly 700 patients. Which means the large majority of patients, my estimate could be 90% of patients are still on product. And so with -- when you have a chronic disease like this, duration of therapy isn't necessarily measured in months. It can be measured much longer than that. And so I don't think we could have gotten off to a better start. But I'm very paranoid. We're in the middle of the first year of launch. You have to really manage the details very carefully. And of course, the ops designation makes this economically feasible for institutions.
Mohamed, do you want to cover anything that I missed?
Yes, you didn't miss much. But I think here, Salim, it's just really important to just underscore that we're pleased with the performance so far. You heard earlier about 10% penetration in that third line plus setting. Also important to note that there's about 3,500 patients that are in play at any given time in the third line plus setting. That means these are the patients that are up for grabs that are changing therapy and some capacity. So we're either at 10% of the third line plus setting in total, over 20% of that in-play opportunity, which, again, is a testament of commercial execution.
You heard some of the metrics around infusions and penetration from Bill. I think the last thing maybe I'd say is that we know prescribers are seeing real-world results, very similar to what they saw in our clinical trials, which is not always the case in this disease, and this is going to naturally encourage providers not only to use Niktimvo more often, but perhaps also consider Niktimvo earlier in their treatment paradigm for more patients.
Just on inventory. Can you just comment on that?
Yes, the inventory, just to put that in perspective, inventory accounted for less than 5% of Q2 sales so far, and that's stabilizing in that expected range. So the performance that you're seeing and the volume is driven primarily by demand.
Next question is coming from Kelly Shi from Jefferies.
This is Clare on for Kelly. So you have the initial G12D bispecific data presenting at ESMO. Whether you can provide more granularity on the scope of proof-of-concept data? And maybe help us understand what would be the key metrics you're looking for to define success and move the program forward.
Great. Pablo, do you want to take that?
Certainly. So -- what we should expect -- what you should expect for the 2 presentations at ESMO in a way, it's consistent with what we did last year with CDK-2. As we've made -- we try to be disciplined about presenting data. We want to present substantial data sets to give you clarity on how well this compounds work in terms of both efficacy and safety and to be able to have with you a discussion about next steps for the programs. And that's exactly what you should expect here.
We're going to have a substantial number of patients for both our KRASG12D program and our TGFßR2xPD-1 receptor by PD-1 bispecific. And we believe that both demonstrate proof of concept in a range of tumor types and the amount of data we'll be able to use that to have a discussion with you on the next steps for these 2 programs, which we expect to do at ESMO in the next couple of months.
Next question today is coming from Brian Abrahams from RBC Capital Markets.
And welcome to Bill, look forward to working with you. I know your guidance was unchanged, but I wanted to unpack the dynamics underlying that. And I'm curious the degree to which pediatric indication is embedded there. And then maybe how we should be thinking about the ex U.S. cadence going forward? I know you saw a big uptick but international can be a bit lumpy. And then maybe longer term, the degree to which the moderate AD data from 284 might expand the market opportunity down the road?
Yes, Brian, good question. I'll give you my initial observations after the first 30 days. Obviously, 60% of the business is AD and 40% is Vitiligo, right? That AD business is growing at plus 20% and the Vitiligo business is growing at plus 10%. Our penetration of this market, if you just think about the AD market as systemic and topicals, is still relatively modest, 7% of the overall AD market systemic and about 17% of the topical market, right?
Market's grown at 20% year-over-year because of migration from topical corticosteroids to a nonsteroidal option, topical or systemic. And that TCS market in the United States at branded pricing is about $15 billion. right? Now it's moving at a modest rate, but that's what's fueling the growth of the market that they're in. And as I said, I see it as a -- I see this as a double-digit CAGR business both U.S. and of course, internationally over the next several years, just with AD and with Vitiligo.
As it relates to pediatric, I would think about it as an incremental growth driver, all right? Here's what we know. There's about $2 billion in triamcinolone use at branded pricing in the United States. But I think we have to be realistic about the extent to which we're going to drive utilization in pediatrics. I think the core business right now is what's going to drive growth over the next several years. The product's got 20,000 users in the United States, prescribers, which is second to only DUPIXENT in AD. And so there's a large prescriber base hearing when you're thinking about the long-term growth potential of any product, that's important.
And then as you know, the coverage both commercial, Medicaid and Medicare is solid. It's not cheap, but it's solid coverage. And so I like the way it looks. As it relates to the international business, I just spoke with the the person who runs our international business the other day about this. France, Italy, Germany and Canada, right? We had a good first or second year. It's gone from $60 million to roughly $120 million in sales. We'll get the AD -- that was just in Vitiligo. And the indication for AD has the potential to keep that business growing and maybe you to exit over several years?
Pablo, anything you want to add?
No, you covered it all. And on the pead side, we see the same way. It's a great tailwind to sustain the growth of our already strong value proposition in that disease.
Our next question today is coming from Jessica Fye from JPMorgan.
Curious how you plan to balance investment in pipeline advancement relative to external opportunities relative to the need for investment to support kind of near-term commercial performance. And I guess, if we think about kind of looking out 5 years from now, how do you see Incyte? Is this going to be mainly organically grown, transformed through M&A, some kind of combination?
Yes. It's a really good question. I think there's a lot in that. Look, the job here, it's not just mine, it's Pablo and Steven and Christiana and the people who run the Commercial business, it's about forgive the baseball metaphor, it's about calling balls and strikes and you have to look at internal investments and external investments the exact same way. There are no sacred cows inside the company. It's also not true that everything outside the company is a shiny penny. And I've been here 30 days, but I will tell you all we think about is capital allocation, both internally and externally.
In terms of the balance between the two, I don't like to force any ratio. I think we have to just look at facts details and analysis and make our calls. As it relates to where I want to see the company in 5 years, it'd be nice to exit. But I think what we want to do is to -- and I mentioned this earlier, set a new high watermark for this company. I mean we have to get through 2029. But set new highs for the company, and that means getting our growth portfolio right, and I include that Opzelura and Niktimvo and then 9a9 mPova. And I know there's no guarantee there. We have to we have to manage those programs.
Next, get R&D priorities right, which is what every company has to do, then get the cost base right. That's just good corporate hygiene. -- get BD right and build the business for the long term so that we really never see the end of the road. And as I mentioned earlier, I do believe we have a win of opportunity in MPNs, where we have differentiated knowledge and capabilities to build a really great business there. Thanks for the question.
Next question today is coming from Marc Frahm from TD Cowen.
Maybe one quick one, clarifying in an earlier answer. Just on the threshold yet for mutant-CALR. Even if maybe the best path forward is combinations, do you need to see kind of convincing monotherapy activity that if that was all you had would have justified moving forward as well in order to kind of move the program forward either as the monotherapy or is the combo? Or it's just convincing combo data enough?
And then similar to that, maybe Bill, when you're talking through the kind of the way to think about prioritizing financial resources, you can put solid tumor oncology or oncology [indiscernible] as maybe the third priority. When you think about the G12D data coming, you guys are not first-in-class there necessarily. And the next steps are likely some combinations in addition to monotherapy work where this program really starts to blossom. Does it need to be a convincing best-in-class agent in order to justify that investment? Or is kind of over time competing in various combinations, but with a more similar asset enough to justify investment?
Good. Marc, thanks for the question. I'll turn over the first question to Pablo and then probably Pablo and I will take the second question together. Go ahead, Pablo.
So let me address the 9a9. And the short answer, Mark, is we absolutely have to have single-agent activity in MF. I think it's an expectation based on the mechanism of action of 9a9 that it will have single-agent activity in patients with myelofibrosis. The question here is as we build a comprehensive plan to basically cover the needs of every single patient with a myelopyripheral immuoplasm, we want to make sure we can address early MF, first-line and patients with MF that failed on Jakafi, either for intolerance or progression on Jakafi.
And to do that, we need a comprehensive data set to show you a single agent and combination data with Jakafi. But it's an expectation based on the mechanism of action 9a9 that it will have single-agent activity in myelofibrosis.
Great. And as it relates to G12D and Pablo will also comment -- First thing I said is we're very clear eyed about this. There are dozens in development. And in the hands of big companies, the hurdle here is high, and we'll be clear eyed about making a decision. If you're not first, you're better be early and most importantly, the position has to be defensible, right? And when we get that data, we're going to have to make that decision. We do believe that the properties of G12D could be differentiating and we believe that it will have a place in the treatment paradigm.
And I'll let Pablo talk a little bit about that.
So to complement what Bill said, this is, as you know, Marc, a very competitive space, G12D and there's some excellent programs advancing in this setting. Well, we think we have our G12D program, and we look forward to showing the data so we can discuss this in more detail we did in hand. It's a component not only might be competitive in terms of single-agent activity, but a combined ability might be better than some of our competitors. And when you think about the really, really big opportunity here, which is first-line pancreatic cancer, that's going to require more likely than auto combination therapy with intensive chemotherapy.
In that context, we think we have a path to compete with some of the other programs. So as Bill said, we may not be first-in-class, but we're certainly in the front of the pack when it comes to positioning. And if the combined ability of our G12D inhibitor is better than some of our competitors, perhaps there is a way to accelerate development in early lines of therapy in pancreatic cancer. That's the way we're seeing the program. As Bill said in his introductory remarks, we will have a very high bar to continue to advance this program forward once we share all the data, and we'll make those decisions later this year.
Next question today is coming from Evan Seigerman from BMO Capital Markets.
This is Connor McKay on for Evan. This is the second quarter in a row that Niktimvo has come in ahead of consensus expectations. And you shared a little bit today about kind of the dynamics in the early days of the launch. But I'm curious, maybe can you remind us how you're thinking about sort of the peak opportunity for this product? And kind of has the launch trajectory in the early days change that at all?
And then I guess maybe just one quick follow-up for Bill as well. we discussed a little bit about business development and how you're prioritizing that versus the internal pipeline. I guess are there any therapeutic areas that you'd be most focused on sort of as it relates to business development.
Great. I'll take a shot first at the first question and then let Mohamed fill in, and then I'll come back to the second question. As it relates to the peak potential of Niktimvo, it's really hard to figure out what's going to happen in 5 years. I'm pretty modest about the accuracy of my future predictions. But I will tell you that, it's only 2 quarters, and I've been on both sides of this, positive and negative. I'm reassured by what I see. I think the potential of this product in part is going to trade on can we get it into combination with Jakafi and with steroids.
And those studies are ongoing. That's number one. We also have a team working on a subcu formulation, which I think is very important. And that's going to get you into frontline, whether you're a monotherapy or whether you're a combination therapy.
Now we have to take care of the short term and build a real solid business in the indication that we have today, and all estimates are that we're doing that. things can sort of wobble around quarter-to-quarter. But since your question was about the long term, my expectations are, when you look at a product like [indiscernible] at Sanofi, that could be the low watermark for us. And I think if you get these additional indications, then you're going to travel north of that.
Mohammad?
Yes. Maybe just to quickly complement there. I think, look, in the first 5 months, we mentioned we've been able to capture 20% of that in-place segment. If by the end of the year, we can capture it to Bill's point earlier, 100 patients, so let's call it, 30% of that in-play market. We'd be ahead of GVHD analog and overcome any entry of order of entry discounts. So if you consider those same analogs then, I think it will be conceivable for just our indication that we have today to deliver several hundred million dollars of annual sales by 2028.
So we're currently working ahead and performing ahead of analogs in the space. And I think we're performing to an extent where we're going to mute, I think, order of entry analog to a certain extent, and I think you can put projections based on some [indiscernible].
And as it relates to the second question, if you study companies that have great businesses, there are a couple of criteria that are common in terms of new therapeutic areas. And I'll just say upfront, we've never gone to a new therapeutic area that would stretch our capabilities or we would go beyond our competencies because I do believe right now we're in 2 excellent areas with excellent prospects for growth. But you look -- first of all, chronic disease management is -- has a lot of sort of attributes to it. You look for a fairly sizable population, unmet need, the potential to have a standard of care approach and where duration of therapy is measured in years, not months.
And there are some logical extensions of our current business in hem/onc and immune-mediated skin conditions or I&I. And we'll continue to look at it. But my focus right now is on what we have. And if there's an opportunity to enter another therapeutic area that makes sense strategically operation financially. We'll explain it and do it, but the focus right now is what's inside the company.
Our next question today is coming from Srikripa Devarakonda from True Securities.
And Bill, let me extend my welcome, looking forward to working with you. I have a question on Jakafi in PV. You saw continued growth in PV. It continues to be -- Jakafi continues to be a key growth driver here. Can you talk about the patient population where you're seeing increased uptake? And also given the footprint you have established here, any thoughts on life cycle management beyond XR and V617F, which we're going to see data, hopefully, next year would be helpful. And also one follow-up question. MONJUVI, was approved for relapsed/refractory FL in June. Just any thoughts on expectations there for the remainder of the year?
Yes. Thanks for the question. I'll just go ahead and turn it over to Mohamed to address the question on Jakafi.
Yes. Maybe let me take a stab on Jakafi, MONJUVI then Bill, I'll give it back to you for any added remarks. Look, PV is the least penetrated indication for Jakafi when compared to the other 2 indications, thus being our biggest growth driver. Our team is doing a very effective job in educating the market on the importance of treating PV earlier with Jakafi and its benefits of thrombosis free survival. As a result, you continue to see strong double-digit growth in Q2, and we're confident in that momentum going forward.
So there, the patient population is simply patients on an earlier-line therapy that are experiencing symptoms and/or need an intervention. And when using Jakafi for those patients, they benefit from thrombosis free survival. If I can just quickly touch on Monjuvi, and then Bill, I'll give it back to you.
Look, I think it's important to note Monjuvi showed a 59% risk reduction, disease progression or death versus what is currently the standard of care. So we believe naturally Monjuvi has the potential to be the new standard of care for patients living with and we expect the growth ramp though here to be reflective of the indolent nature of the disease, and our expectations for the balance of the year are captured in the guidance that Christiana provided for the other hem/onc portfolio, with really good execution Monjuvi and FL alone, excluding any other indication can be one of those incremental growth drivers and deliver $200 million or so in annual revenue by 2028.
Yes. I think Mohamed said it well, very focused on the growth of Jakafi over the next several years. Obviously, our penetration in MF is high. And as Mohamed said, in GVHD, I would describe it as medium. And then in PV, it's low, which is why you're seeing double-digit growth with that product right now or with that indication right now, I think we'll continue to see that. And the MAGIC PV study is only a couple of years old. So -- thanks for the question.
Next question today is coming from Stephen Willey from Stifel.
Just a couple on 9Ashwani Verma. Can you say anything about the characteristics of the MF patients enrolled into the Phase I with respect to just baseline cytopenias hemoglobin Were there any restrictions placed on eligibility criteria? Or should we expect that this is going to look like a typical JAK experience patient population? And then just wondering how we should also be thinking about the duration of follow-up we'll have relative to what was just presented in ET.
Thanks for the question. Pablo will take it.
So the population is as you call the typical of patients have been exposed to Jakafi, there are patients that are intolerant or progressed -- so it's a pretty representative population in MF. We were not very restrictive in terms of enrollment criteria. So I think it will be very informative in order to discuss next steps for 9a9 in patients with MF. Follow-up is going to be variable. This has been a dose escalation study, as you know. So the early dose cohorts will have longer follow-up than the later dose higher dose cohorts. But all in all, we'll have patients with pretty substantial follow-up because the study is to enrolling patients at low doses more than a year ago. So we'll have a fair amount of follow-up.
Thanks for the question.
Our next question today is coming from David Lebowitz from Citi.
Bill, welcome to the team. I guess on Jakafi in the current quarter, what were the particular drivers -- which side of the -- which indication do the therapy the most? I'm curious as to what IRA and the out-of-pocket changes might have had an impact in the quarter and how we should see that impacting going forward?
Yes, good question. I'll give you some initial comments and then Mohamed take over. I think the most important point about the quarter is that there was growth in all 3 indications. And I think you can -- I would view MF and GVHD as mid-single-digit grower -- growing indications. And I think this is true over the longer term and PV as a double-digit growing indication. We saw that last quarter. We saw it again this quarter. And I think given where the product sits in each one of those markets or those indications, that's what the growth profile or the mix is going to look like for the next 3-plus years.
And then as it relates to the IRA, Mohamed.
Yes, nothing to add on the growth drivers. On IRA, the simple answer is that it had no impact on our performance in Q2. As you remember, the IRA dynamics had a favorable GTN impact in Q1, but that was a onetime effect as we communicated there. And in Q2, the demand really drove the growth, and that's where you see the performance for Jakafi in the quarter.
Our next question is coming from Michael Schmidt from Guggenheim.
I just had another bigger picture question for Bill. So in terms of capital allocation and sort of reading between the lines and your prior comments, it sounds like there may be opportunity to perhaps optimize the earlier stage R&D portfolio. So longer term, as you think about potentially increasing R&D productivity for the company, are there specific areas where you think Incyte is underinvested, be it in terms of targets, modalities or disease areas within the broader framework of oncology and I&I?
And then just a quick one for Pablo on povorcitinib Just could you just help us understand the importance of the upcoming Phase II data in asthma in the second half of the year. I know you've noted in the past that the bar is high to advancing this, but I'm just curious what we should expect there.
Yes, Michael, good question. Listen, Pablo and I speak a lot about the first question that you just asked regarding specific areas, putting external opportunities aside. As soon as I make a comment about an area, the prices of all those companies would go up. But why don't you just talk about how we're thinking about internal R&D and oncology.
So if I understand your question, Michael, it's more specifically related to the early preclinical pipeline. And what we've been doing there A lot of which is honestly not visible because we don't disclose pre-IND programs. But we have, over the past couple of years, increasingly tightened our focus around novel biology and applying novel platforms to novel biology. So our goal over time is to truly focus on try to be first-in-class applied novel platforms. And that was the impetus behind the collaboration we established with Genesis to take advantage of the capabilities in AI and machine learning drug discovery. The collaboration that we put -- we expanded with [indiscernible] to give access to a molecule [indiscernible] library. And we will continue to do those because we believe, fundamentally, in order to win in the next 10 years, we need to focus on novel areas, novel targets by applying novel platform. So that's a lot of the emphasis when it comes to the preclinical pipeline.
Thanks for the question.
There was a question on asthma. So -- this remains a really important potential indication for Povo. We think there's the type of patients, particularly those with non-type 2 asthma where there remains a need to reduce exacerbations and deliver substantial improvements in FEV1. And I'm talking about over 100 to 150 mLs. So we are really excited about having this data later this year. It's been a program that has not received a lot of attention. So we look forward to deliver results before the end of the year. And depending on those results, obviously discuss next steps.
Our final question today is coming from Gavin Clark-Gartner from Evercore ISI.
Very quick one. For should we expect updated ET data alongside the MS data later this year?
Yes, Kevin, it will be an update on ET data as well later this year, absolutely. We are -- as I mentioned in my remarks, we're moving as quickly as we can in we will obtain later this year regulatory feedback with the goal of starting pivotal trials early 2026. So we will provide an update on the ET data that we'll present at AHA later this year.
We reach the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further or closing comments.
Thank you all for participating in the call today and for your questions, the IR team will be available for the rest of the day for follow-up. Thank you, and goodbye.
Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.
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Incyte — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
Incyte — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Produktumsatz: $1,06 Mrd ( +17% YoY)
- Gesamtumsatz: $1,22 Mrd ( +16% YoY)
- Jakafi: $764 Mio (+8% YoY); Guidance erhöht auf $3,0–3,5 Mrd für 2025
- Opzelura & Niktimvo: Opzelura $164 Mio (+35% YoY), Niktimvo $36 Mio; Other oncology $131 Mio (+66% YoY)
- Kosten & Guidance: Einmaliger Vorteil $242 Mio (Novartis‑Streit), COGS‑Guidance gesenkt auf 8–9% NPV; R&D‑Guidance steigt um $35 Mio auf $1,965–1,995 Mrd
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Priorität MPNs: Mutant‑CALR‑Antikörper INCA‑C339a9 (9a9) ist strategischer Fokus – Ziel: fundamentale Verschiebung in MPN‑Therapie
- Produktfluss beschleunigen: Fokus auf Beschleunigung von Zulassungen (povocitinib, Opzelura‑Erweiterungen, 9a9) und schnellere Entscheidungen bei R&D‑Priorisierung
- Kapitalallokation: Erst Kernprodukte, dann Spät‑Phase, dann BD; Governance‑Rahmen und strikte ROI‑Bewertung neuer Investitionen
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Umsatzwachstum: Net‑Product‑Revenue FY erwartet +14–17% YoY
- Guidance‑Anpassungen: Jakafi $3,0–3,5 Mrd; Other oncology $500–520 Mio; COGS 8–9% NPV
- Meilensteine: FDA‑Pediatric‑Opzelura erwartete Zulassung im Sept. 2025; povocitinib HS‑Submission 2026; 9a9 MF/Monotherapie‑Daten Ende 2025, ET‑Pivotalstart geplant für early‑2026
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Therapiepriorität: Management bestätigt klare Priorisierung von MPNs, I&I und Onkologie sind nachrangig, aber relevant
- 9a9‑Erwartungen: Analysten verlangten Minimal‑Threshold für Monotherapie in MF; Management betont Erwartung echter Single‑Agent‑Aktivität plus Combo‑Daten
- Launch‑Dynamik Niktimvo: 82% Account‑Penetration, ~4.000 Infusionen/≈700 Patienten; Inventory <5% Q2‑Umsatz; J‑Code‑Einführung unterstützte Abrufbarkeit
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikation: Starke kommerzielle Dynamik (Jakafi, Opzelura, Niktimvo) und verbesserte Margen durch Novartis‑Settlement stützen kurzfristig das Ergebnis; echter Wert hängt nun an mehreren klinischen Readouts (9a9, povocitinib, G12D) und der Fähigkeit, Daten in Zulassungen zu überführen.
Incyte — Shareholder/Analyst Call - Incyte Corporation
1. Management Discussion
Welcome to everybody online, in person here in the room. And a big thank you to all of you and specifically to our presenters today for the time and the energy you are putting behind this project.
So the data -- we'll be speaking about 989. The data that is presented today is the first clinical data presented with this product. And in fact, I was thinking of the ASH preclinical presentation that was a plenary session like 2 years ago, 2.5 years ago. And what you could wish at the time you will see in the first 50 patients that are treated with ET and what it would look like. And frankly, that's what makes this data so exciting is that it looks very much like what we have seen a few minutes ago. So it will be -- this entire presentation will be about that subject of what the data means and where we are going to go with this project.
I just want to say a word before we go into the science about why this -- today is an important day for Incyte as a corporation. We all know we have been facing questions about the long-term growth of our Jakafi franchise beyond 2029, and that's an appropriate question to have in mind. And as you know, Jakafi franchise is made of GVHD and MPN. In GVHD, we have the launch of Niktimvo that is taking place now as we speak. And we think it will be the growth driver for that part of the franchise for the long term. And frankly, 989, what we have been discussing this morning at the late-breaking abstract session is what's going to drive the growth of our MPN franchise beyond the sort of the Jakafi franchise itself.
So it is an important day for patients who are suffering from MPN. It's an important day because it's a new approach for their treatment, but it's also an important day for the company because it's a result of a research program that we have executed over the past years in many ways.
So we will be going through a number of presentations, and I will let Pablo introduce the scientific program for the session. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Herve, and good morning, everyone. Good afternoon here in Milan. We have a really busy agenda for you today. So we're going to get right to it.
We're going to start with an overview of essential thrombocythemia, which is the disease we're going to focus on today with the data from 989. Claire Harrison is going to give us an overview. Then Dr. Nangalia is going to talk about the biology of the CALR mutation and why this is so important, and it has really -- when it was described first a little over 10 years ago, it started to change the way we try to develop new medicines for this set of diseases. Patrick Mayes, our own Head of Discovery, Biology at Incyte will talk about the mechanism of action of 989, critical to understand some of the data that you're going to see. And Dr. John Mascarenhas will talk about the data from 989 in the Phase I study that he presented earlier today, the late-break sessions. Hopefully, we'll have time for Q&A after that.
Let me spend a couple of minutes here on the introduction to our speakers. Dr. Claire Harrison is a Professor of myeloproliferative neoplasms and Deputy Chief Medical Officer at Guy's and St Thomas’ Hospital in London. She co-founded MPN Voice about 20 years ago and is a trustee of Blood Cancer UK. She sits on several European hematology EHA boards, very relevant to the meeting today and is Deputy Editor in Chief of HemaSphere.
The next speaker, external speaker would be Dr. Jyoti Nangalia, who discovered the CALR mutation and its importance in MPNs and published a paper in New England Journal in 2013. She has continued to make landmark scientific contributions across this set of diseases and provides finalized predictions outcomes in the MPN -- for MPNs. Her team identified other genetic drivers of myeloproliferative neoplasms, and she's also a group leader at the Sanger Institute and Cambridge Stem Cell Institute.
And Dr. John Mascarenhas, Professor of Medicine at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, Director of the Center of Excellence for Blood Cancers and Myeloid Disorders, and a member of the Tisch Cancer Institute, where he directs the adult leukemia program, and he leads clinical investigations with the MPN disorders program. He's been a principal investigator and presenter of a lot of recent clinical investigations in MPNs and other related areas.
So with that, I'm going to hand it over to Dr. Claire Harrison. She's going to tell us about ET, a disease overview and some of the important points to remember as we start thinking about the potential role that 989 can play in these patients going forward. Claire?
Hello, everyone. It's my great pleasure to be here today to introduce you to this disease area and to give you some insights as a clinician who's looked after patients with these diseases for more than 25 years. As many of you will be aware, the MPN family consists of 2 more perhaps indolent diseases, although as I think I'll show you, they're not so indolent, ET, polycythemia vera and then myelofibrosis.
Focusing in specifically on ET. This is a relatively rare disease. The incidence is about 1 in 100,000, but the prevalence is at least 30 per 100,000. The disease has a bimodal distribution. The median age of presentation is -- for patients in their 60s, but many of the clinicians here today would be able to describe to you that we also have a peak in younger individuals, particularly young females. And I'm going to tell you the story of one of my patients later.
Main clinical presentation is thrombosis and hemorrhage, but the risk for the patients and the thing that they're most worried about is disease progression. And this is a time-related event and disease progression is principally to myelofibrosis, which we do have some treatments for, but none of them are particularly curative, as you all know, although there's a work in progress. And acute leukemia is also a risk for these patients.
Zooming in, in particular, on mutant CALR positive ET. This represents around 30% or so of our ET patient population. What do they look like? So I'm summarizing that for you on this slide. They tend to be younger. They have a higher risk of MF transformation. That's what this graph is showing. This is myelofibrosis-free survival. These are the CALR type 1, and these are the CALR type 2. My colleagues will explain what a type 1 and a type 2 mutation is. But just focusing in on, these are the patients in my ET population who are most likely to develop myelofibrosis, and they do so quite quickly.
In this disease, these are pertinent points for you when you see the results later, a higher VAF tends to be the case for CALR patients compared to JAK2-positive ET, which is around 50% of the population. And specifically in the CALR population, a higher VAF is known to be associated with a higher risk of disease progression, thrombosis and poorer outcomes.
These patients also tend to have more indication for starting treatment. So they tend to have a higher platelet count. That tends to be our reason for initiating treatment for these patients. And they also, as I'll show you in a subsequent slide, in some data generated by us in a study that we started in 1997, tend to be less likely to respond to treatments.
If I look at a patient with ET in my clinic, or John does or Jyoti does or any clinician treating these diseases, these boxes here, these are the things we're trying to focus on. We're trying to minimize the impact of the disease, control the risk of thrombosis and hemorrhage and do so in a safe way, allow them to become pregnant if that's something they want to do. But we don't have, as you'll see, anything at present that we know for these patients can prevent disease progression, can restore normal hematopoiesis and by any traction-able means, reduce the clone size, which is something that we would perhaps be defining as disease modification.
So just to show you what the current treatment landscape looks like for a high-risk patient, generally, that would be defined as either someone who's over 60, someone who's had a thrombosis or someone who has a platelet count of over 1,000 to 1,500, which is where the indication for treatment for CALR comes in. These patients, we give these very old-fashioned drugs to hydroxyurea or interferon, or in the second-line setting, a drug called anagrelide, and you will have seen some data at the EHA meeting comparing these two therapies.
These treatments are used by us in day-to-day practice with these three aims: Control the blood count, reduce the risk of thrombosis and reduce some symptoms. There's no evidence at present that they modify disease. Interferon, we have been using for decades in this disease setting. We never say to a patient that's going to modify their disease.
I told you that CALR-positive patients tend to respond less well to standard therapies. This is data that we published before Jyoti described the CALR mutation. This is in the PT-1 study, which we started in 1997 in the U.K. And this is response rates to patients with hydroxyurea or hydroxycarbamide, platelet counts, which tends to be our primary target. And here, you can see the JAK2 negative patients running a higher platelet count than the JAK2 positive ones. So we needed more doses of hydroxyurea, and we noted more cases of resistance or intolerance to disease. I can't show you the specific data for CALR patients in this setting, but I've summarized some of the available literature.
So there is still unmet need for ET patients. We haven't had a new therapy for these patients since the approval of anagrelide in 2005 in Europe. Resistance and intolerance to available treatments, I'm showing you the data here. These treatments do not have an impact on long-term disease outcomes. And indeed, there is evidence that hydroxycarbamide or hydroxyurea may well increase the risk of leukemia, and anagrelide is certainly associated with higher risk of myelofibrosis. We showed that in the PT-1 study. Anagrelide interestingly, is also associated with VAF increases for CALR.
So I think this is a fair summary for our current treatment landscape. No current treatment offers a cure, evidence of disease modification or consistent change in key pathological features, VAF or resolution of marrow changes.
So now I want to tell you a story of a patient who I first met in 1997. And I think this story illustrates the statement I made on the last slide that available treatments don't really modify disease course. She was 17 when I first met her. This is her blood count. We did a biopsy. It was consistent with ET. We did some molecular workup. But in fact, in 1997, we had nothing to do.
During the course of her disease, she developed a knee injury actually while skiing in the states. She was put on anagrelide by colleagues in the Mayo Clinic to manage surgery because the platelet count was high. And at that time, anagrelide was believed to be safe and was frequently used for younger patients. But subsequently, the PT-1 study and other studies showed that it had these risks associated with it.
Later, she plans to get pregnant. At that time, her platelet count was 1,600 plus. We treated her with interferon alpha to reduce the risk of adverse pregnancy outcome, but she had a very poor experience with that drug, had a miscarriage and because of her poor experience, has subsequently consistently refused to have interferon.
Later, we found that she was indeed CALR positive. And around 20 years after diagnosis, she developed myelofibrosis. That's actually quite a long time. I saw a patient just last week who -- she's 30, she's got 2 children and she transformed to post-ETMF with CALR-positive disease within 5 years. So it's very variable.
So does reducing VAF matter for these patients. The only data we really have for CALR at the moment is this increase in VAF with anagrelide, which we know is associated with fibrosis. In an academic study, we took actually ironically another Incyte asset, ruxolitinib. And in the U.K., we performed an academic study. Jyoti was very heavily involved in this. We recruited 180 patients, and we treated them with ruxolitinib.
And in this study, we showed that molecular response, which was just a 50% reduction in VAF. But by the way, the results are the same if the threshold was 75% reduction or 25% reduction. By 1 year, event-free survival and event-free survival is thrombosis, hemorrhage, transformation or death. I think we'll all agree those are relevant outcomes.
And later, Jyoti and team in this publication, which we published in JCO, we were able to show for the first time that an endpoint in MPN correlated with overall survival advantage. So you can ask Jyoti the question about difference biologically between JAK2-positive disease and CALR-positive disease, but I think there's a good rationale for why a reduction in VAF, that might be viewed as relatively modest, may have a disease implication.
So in conclusion, and I'll speed up a little bit, I've shown you the distinct phenotypic profile for these patients, the limitations of our current therapies, unmet need for these patients and that there is emerging evidence that reducing the clone size even to a modest extent can correlate with good outcomes for these patients. And I believe that's because clones -- these clones are more indolent. They tend to increase more slowly.
Anyway, thank you very much for your attention. And at this point, I think, Jyoti, I'm handing over to you.
Afternoon, everyone. Thank you, Claire, for that talk and also to Incyte for having me here today. I'm going to talk a bit about the biology of a CALR mutation and its relevance in MPNs to set the scene for the clinical data to follow.
So I still remember the day in July 2013 when first stumbled across the CALR mutation. Initially, it was confusion and intrigue and about 8 hours later, after growing excitement, I e-mailed my PhD. supervisors at the time at about 3 in the morning. It was new. The JAK2 mutation had been discovered in 2005.
And really since then, we did not have a molecular basis for at least half of patients with ET and MF to try and understand what was driving their disease. And it was -- these stories were published in the New England Journal of Medicine in December 2013, and it was really exciting for me in 2022 when Edimara and the Incyte team stood up and presented the preclinical data on the first mutant CALR targeting antibody and as published in Blood soon after.
So what is the CALR mutation and what does it do? Along the top here is the normal protein sequence of CALR. So if you take the CALR protein and stretch it out into a string, you start with one end here called the N-terminus and you go down to here called the C-terminus, the two different ends of the protein. And just note here that the last four amino acids of the protein are KDEL. KDEL is a very important part of normal CALR.
And what does CALR do normally? So we have DNA and our DNA encodes for genes. And if you want to switch on a gene in a particular cell, you make a copy of that DNA into RNA and that RNA forms a template for making a protein. Once you've made your protein, your protein is just a long string, and you need to fold it into a particular complex shape for it to do its function. And CALR is involved in helping that long string of proteins fold into whatever shape they need to be in a place in your cell called the endoplasmic reticulum. And KDEL anchors CALR to the endoplasmic reticulum. It keeps it there so that as proteins traffic through, it helps it fold and then those proteins go on their merry way to do whatever job they do in the cell.
And if you look at KDEL across humans, mice, zebrafish, [indiscernible] KDEL is conserved. This is the sequence of CALR across species. It's preserved within the animal kingdom. And what was really exciting is when you look across all the mutations of CALR at the time, this was the most common. This was the second most common, and there are a whole bunch of other things. What was really quite remarkable is that when you -- I did this manually, working out what they did, the KDEL was lost in all of them, and there was this novel C-terminus sequence to the protein. And here is the structure of the protein now folded. And you can see that there's a novel -- there's a new tail. So CALR has got itself a new tail.
Now why is that important? So as I already mentioned, proteins go through the endoplasmic reticulum here, the ER, which is the sort of web around your nucleus. And CALR is normally there, and it helps these proteins fold. But what it's doing weirdly is that mutant CALR specifically binds to the receptor for thrombopoietin. Thrombopoietin is a hormone that signals to our blood stem cells to make more platelets and to make megakaryocytes. And it itself as a receptor needs to go through the ER to get folded into its right configuration before it goes into the cell membrane ready to receive signals from TPO.
Mutant CALR binds the receptor for TPO in the ER. And because it's no longer docked to the ER because it's lost KDEL, it goes onto the cell surface with the receptor for TPO and not only brings it to the cell surface but activates it because it's continuously locked. So mutant CALR with TPOR in combination become this force of nature that then leads to this continuous signal in the cell to make platelets. And that's what drives ET. And when that disease evolves genetically to acquire more mutations, that's what then drives myelofibrosis.
So the key thing here is wild-type CALR is involved in normal cellular homeostasis, but mutant CALR has this particular predilection for the receptor of TPO that then single-handedly drives this disease. Even though this mutation, this protein is found in all of our cells, it drives this disease in hematopoietic stem cells.
And then that link to TPO becomes even more important when you're measuring its activity in your cells. Remember, every one of our stem cells that is part of the ET clone has a mutation in CALR within its DNA. But whether that mutation is active in doing anything is entirely dependent on whether that cell is a cell that normally makes the receptor for TPO.
So this is a map here where we've basically taken all the different types of cells you have in your bone marrow, NK cells, T cells, B cells, these are lymphoid cells. CD34 is a marker for your stem cells, that rare population of cells that make all of our blood cells and the myeloid/erythroid lineage, which is so typically elevated in MPNs, and you'll see here that mutant CALR is specifically expressed in these compartments. So when we measure VAF, we are measuring it at the DNA level, which many cells have. But when you're looking at where it's active, it's only active in certain cell types. And it's only then pathogenic when those cell types also express TPO.
So here are the stem cells at the top of the hematopoietic tree. These stem cells sit at the top of the pyramid and make all the different blood cells. TPOR is expressed in these stem cells as is mutant CALR. So this is fortunately the target that you want in MPNs, and it's the target that both expresses TPO and expresses CALR. And then TPO and CALR are expressed down this myeloid lineage all the way down to the megakaryocytes and the platelets. But of note, these cells here will have mutant CALR in their DNA, but it won't be pathogenic.
So if you then look at these cells here, which were not highlighted in the slide before, these are the cells that are the daughter cells of your mutant stem cells. They do have mutant CALR, but they aren't really contributing to the pathogenicity of it. And as these cells disappear, if you could get rid of them, these will go down quickly because they'll see the antibody, and these will eventually disappear once their parents disappear. So these might lag.
So if you look here, the early clinical indicators that one could have with a drug that targets the mutant CALR specifically in the cells that it's expressing TPOR with, you'll expect a reduction in platelets, you might expect a reduction in megakaryocytes because there are many mutated CALR megakaryocytes in the bone marrow, and a reduction in the stem cell compartment and you'd measure that as a reduction of number of cells that both express mutant CALR and TPO. And then these cells here, where they may contribute to your DNA readout of mutant CALR, they will go down more slowly as their parents get eliminated, these stem cells.
So in conclusions, MPNs are cancers that arrive after the acquisition of a driver mutation within your hematopoietic stem cell and mutations in CALR that occur in those stem cells can drive ET and MF. A small fraction of cells that both express the mutant CALR and the TPO receptor will then drive the disease and be the recipients of targeted therapy. And then the cells that don't express TPOR will hopefully be removed later.
For me, in particular, we're very interested in my lab about how these MPNs grow, and what the merits might be of reducing the burden of disease. And the way I see all MPNs and their growth over life is really like a compound interest on your bank account. So these are slow-growing cancers. There may be a 5% to 10% interest, and that goes on for 20, 30, 40 years, and you end up with millions to billions of cells that are responsible for your disease. If you could reduce that compound interest rate from 20% to 10%, I'm sure many people in the room could recognize the impact of that in 20 years' time.
So if you could reduce not only the burden of cells, there's less cells waiting for potential evolution to myelofibrosis, but if you could also reduce the rate at which the overall clone is growing or indeed regress it, then that could push back disease by decades potentially, which is what the last point makes.
So now over to John Mascarenhas -- sorry, over to Patrick Mayes, apologies to talk about the novel mutant CALR antibody.
Thank you, Dr. Nangalia. So I'm going to spend the next few moments just to speak or provide an overview of our mutant CALR monoclonal antibody, INCA033989.
989 is a first-in-class agent, which targets the mutant CALR oncogene. It is a fully human Fc-silent IgG1, which binds with equal affinity or high affinity to both type 1 and type 2 mutant forms of calreticulin,, and upon binding leads to the potent inhibition of the constitutive JAK/STAT signaling that you just heard about, downstream of mutant CALR interaction with TPOR. And the net effect here is that you have antagonism of mutant signal while having no effect on normal cytokine signaling through TPO, TPOR.
So to demonstrate this selectivity, we isolated CD34 hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells from either MPN patients or human healthy donors. And you can see from the upper left-hand schematic, this is what was described mutant CALR interaction with TPOR leads to constitutive signal through the JAK/STAT pathway. This provides the oncogenic properties to the MPN cell, whereas in a normal HSPC, cytokine is required to bind the cytokine receptor in order to engage and initiate signaling downstream.
So if we look then in the context of 989 treatment in the center graph, what you see is the potent and complete inhibition of the mutant CALR induced JAK/STAT signaling shown in blue, while 989 has no effect on the cytokine or TPO-induced signaling through JAK/STAT shown in green. And this is quite distinct from other therapies used to treat MPNs, where there is no selectivity between mutant-induced JAK/STAT signaling and wild-type or TPO-induced JAK/STAT signaling in an HSPC. And this provides -- or this creates an issue wherein you cannot address complete inhibition of JAK/STAT signaling in a mutant cell because of the dose-limiting toxicities associated with wild-type JAK/STAT inhibition in a normal cell.
So this exquisite selectivity of 989 is directly linked to the disease-modifying potential of this agent. As you heard from Dr. Nangalia, mutations in CALR arise in stem cells, and this provides a clonal advantage of the mutant stem cell versus wild type. So over time, this provides in the bone marrow of patients, the opportunity for mutant cells to become the dominant clone in that person. However, what we know about ET is that the average mutant CALR VAF is about 30% to 40%. And what this means is that there is a meaningful reservoir of wild-type HSPCs that still exist in these patients.
So if you think about the context of therapy with 989 as shown on the right, the antibody will bind to and eliminate the mutant form of the HSPCs while sparing activity against the wild type, allowing for expansion of those wild-type clones, eventually, over time, leading to the counterbalance of decrease in mutant, increase in wild-type and a decrease in mutant CALR VAF over time.
So to demonstrate this directly, we isolated CD34 HSPCs from either MPN patients with a CALR mutation or human healthy donors. These cells can then be cultured in an ex vivo liquid culture [ effects ] of 989 on the survival and proliferation of these cells. And this is shown in the graph on the right, where you can see the effects of 989 resulting in dose-dependent elimination of HSPCs in a mutant CALR MPN patient sample, while 989 has no effect on HSPCs from a healthy donor in this system. So this is important because it shows direct activity against the disease initiating sustaining cells in MPN.
So using a similar system, we can isolate CD34 cells and culture ex vivo in a cytokine milieu, which biases towards megakaryocytes. Here, we can show the direct effect of 989 on megakaryocytes in this system. You can see from the data on the right, in an MPN patient with a CALR mutation, we see very significant effects of 989 towards megakaryocytes in this patient's sample, whereas 989 has no effect on a JAK2-V617F megakaryocyte patient. This is important because, as you heard, ET is characterized by the overabundance of both megakaryocytes and platelets, which are derived from megakaryocytes. So this demonstrates the ability to modify the pathological endpoints of this disease.
And finally, we have tested 989 in a mutant CALR transgenic mouse model. And in this model, we can knock in mutant CALR into the hematopoietic cells of these mice using an MX1-cre recombinase system. Following knock-in, the mice are allowed to age for 4 months, which allows for development of MPN disease, which, as you can see, results in extensive thrombocytosis in these mice, anemia and megakaryocyte hyperplasia in the bone marrow.
We can treat with 989 for 12 weeks and upon treatment, look at disease endpoints. And what you can see from the graphs in the middle is significant effects on normalization of both platelet counts and white blood cell counts, as shown by the blue bars on the top graphs as well as reversal of anemia as shown by hematocrit and red blood cell below.
If you look then in the bone marrow with the HNE plots on the far right, you can see a normalization of megakaryocyte cell numbers, both a decrease in number as well as a normalization in the morphology of those cells. So all in all, showing the disease-modifying activity of 989 in this mutant CALR preclinical model.
So in summary, we've developed a high-affinity selective monoclonal antibody, which antagonizes mutant CALR function. This is selective for the constitutive JAK/STAT signaling while sparing activity through normal cytokine-induced signaling. As I showed you, this has direct inhibitory effects on the disease, initiating and sustaining cells within MPN as well as megakaryocytes, which are the precursors which derive platelets from and is how these diseases are identified.
And then as I showed you, in the mutant CALR conditional knock-in model, having transformational activity of the antibody, leading to platelet normalization, reversal of anemia and elimination of megakaryocyte hyperplasia in this model. So overall, the preclinical safety and pharmacology profile of 989 makes this a very promising candidate for clinical testing in mutant-CALR positive MPN patient samples.
So I'll stop here and hand the microphone to Dr. Mascarenhas.
Okay. I want to thank Incyte for inviting me to join today to review with you the results that were just presented as a late-breaking abstract with 989. And for me, it's very exciting. And what I'm going to do with this talk is personalize it a little bit more to give you a sense of my own personal -- and it's not just mine, I would say, it's shared by the investigators who are treating patients, impression of the data beyond the podium presentation that we just gave because I really do think that this has the potential to be transformative in the field.
So this is the schema of the Phase I study. And you'll see that it is a study that is done both in the U.S. and ex U.S., but we're presenting the joint data. Today, we're just focusing in on the ET population, but you'll notice that there are MF patients, both monotherapy and in combination with ruxolitinib that are being treated, and that data will be presented at a later time. But today, we're really focused on the ET cohort in a drug that's given intravenously every 2 weeks in a patient population that is confirmed to have ET by WHO criteria, that's deemed high risk, in need of therapy.
So these are patients who are at risk for thrombosis and progression. They're over 60 years of age. They've either had a thrombosis, they have high -- or a hemorrhage, a high platelet count maybe with Acquired Von Willebrand and they're in need of better therapy. By definition, they have to have thrombocytosis, so a platelet count greater than 450,000, but they could be on anagrelide or hydroxyurea, which is a standard of care for most patients worldwide, including the U.S., but are probably not succeeding to come on the study, meaning that they're on some dose, it's probably limited by toxicity, which is very common and/or not achieving its goal at the maximally tolerated dose. So this is really representing a group of patients that are in need.
And I point that out because it was not hard to recruit to this study for that very reason. So once you open up a study, you have to figure out which patients are in need and will they come onto a first-in-human Phase I study. I've done a lot of studies. This was a very easy study to recruit to as a first in-human because I think it represented a group of patients that were in need and were looking for a novel immunotherapeutic-based treatment.
The endpoint is safety and tolerability, characterizing the safety profile and of course, trying to identify dose-limiting toxicities. And as you'll see, we didn't have DLTs nor did we hit an MTD. So what will be our recommended Phase II dose will be, we'll need to determine. And then, of course, looking at secondary endpoints, response rates. So response rates here for the purpose of this talk are going to be normalization of the platelet count, the white count.
And then most intriguingly, and I would say, most impressively are some of the biomarkers I'll show you that would suggest that this is not simply reducing platelet counts. We have drugs that reduce platelet counts to some extent, but this is likely modifying the disease. As Jyoti pointed out, that could have a much more greater impact and profound impact on these patients over time.
These are the 49 patients. So these are the 49 patients that were recruited at the time of data cutoff. From 24 milligrams, which is the starting dose in the U.S., all the way up to 2,500 milligrams across multiple centers. This was really a global effort, I should point out, too. It was very important. This wasn't one center generating data. This was many centers, many phone calls, many toxicity reviews and a lot of confidence in what we're showing here today.
This is the patient population that you would see and would expect. Median age in these diseases is usually in the 60s. Here, the median age was 60. And the time from diagnosis was 7 years. I think that's also an important point. These are chronic diseases. These patients sometimes start with therapy that don't carry them the distance and need additional therapies.
And I'll show you that although on the right, hydroxyurea was the most common therapy, you will notice that the number doesn't add up to 100% because patients do end up cycling through therapies, and that becomes a problem. They go from one therapy to the next therapy in search of a therapy that will both be tolerable, control the accounts and potentially modify the disease, and hydroxyurea and anagrelide for sure, don't hold that promise.
So there's clear unmet need. I think this table summarizes some of that unmet need by the types of patients we're enrolling. You will notice that 57% of patients are type 1. That's the more common type and the rest were either type 2 or other. And the median VAF was around 30% with a very high platelet count. So again, this was a patient population in need.
These are not patients that have polycythemia vera, which you may be more accustomed to seeing or myelofibrosis. So the white counts weren't super high. Their spleens weren't super big. And their TSS may not be super high. But I will tell you from dealing with a lot of ET patients, they do have symptoms and there's a lot of anxiety that doesn't come across in tables like this when you live with a chronic disease.
So therapies that can effectively control the disease relieve a certain degree of anxiety. And I will tell you that, that also makes for a much shorter office visit. So when you have controlled the disease and the patient is no longer anxious, they don't spend 3 hours sort of telling you about all the different complaints that they have, which are repeated. And I've noticed with giving this drug, the office visits are actually shorter because patients are enjoying the benefit and the anxiety of that platelet count comes down considerably, and that's not a trivial aspect.
So here is the safety data, which was, I think, really beautiful. It was really beautiful in the sense that the treatment related -- so overall, any treatment-emergent adverse event, 85%, but treatment related, deemed by the investigator in a Phase I, a lot of this was early on when we didn't know what to expect. It was about 61%. Grade 3 was about 1/3 of the patients, less than 1/3 of patients and serious events were 3, which I've outlined here.
Asymptomatic lipase increase happened very early on in a 24-milligram dose. We know that's not an effective dose. And we know that this occurred in other patients, but seem to have no clinical sequela. There were no cases of pancreatitis. There were no radiographic changes. It was transient.
Often, we would check it, and Claire and I have made this comment before, we don't normally check lipase in ET patients. So I'm going to start doing it now because out of curiosity, I wonder if lipase is elevated [ transily ] for reasons I don't know. But we didn't see any correlation with the drug. In terms of we would see the lipase go up before the dose and then it would come down sometimes even after the dose was given. So it didn't seem to be clinically impactful.
This one patient, I did want to make this talk somewhat personal, just to alleviate any concerns. If you see visceral venous thrombosis, a very common complication in MPN, splanchnic vein thrombosis. It could be Budd-Chiari, could be portal vein, splanchnic vein. We see this frequently. In this individual, which was treated at our center, low dose, 24 milligrams by cycle 5.
She came in after like a flu-like symptom, which might have been the precipitating event and had extensive splanchnic vein thrombosis requiring hospitalization and anticoagulation. And she had a history of DVT. She also had a lot of risk factors for thrombosis, including obesity. So she had many explainable reasons why this could occur and very, very unlikely related to the drug, just to be very clear.
The diverticulitis also happened in a patient who had recurrent diverticulitis, also not thought to be drug related. So sorry -- so dose reductions to treatment adverse events, one, infusion interruptions, none and no DLTs in a Phase I study, very, very clean.
You see the toxicity here, I can assure you that most of these -- and this is regardless of attribution, of course, most of these toxicities are toxicities that are commonly seen in the clinic in ET patients, except for the lipase, which I pointed out, which again was transient and without any significant clinical sequela. So this was a very clean study. It was one of the few studies I participated in and I've participated in many, where I felt very confident putting patients on in a first in-human and letting them know that my concern about toxicity was very minimal and my hope for efficacy was quite high. And that's what we saw. And we saw it very obviously.
So I'm highlighting here the change in platelet counts over time. This is grouped by dose at 24 to 250 milligrams and then 400 to 2,500 milligrams to make the point that in each group, we saw very dramatic reductions in platelet counts, near normalization of platelet count, even at the lower end of the dosing range within the first month of therapy. It was even more impressive in the higher range. So the rapidity in which you see it is remarkable. And then the durability of that normalization is remarkable.
And we did not see thrombocytopenia, which is key because what we don't want to do is try to control counts to the detriment of inducing the alternative problem of low platelets. So any concern of that was wiped away when we saw this data. It was very satisfying to see platelet counts. I mean, I had patients literally cry in the room because they had never seen a normal platelet count on them, and it was just so anxiety relieving. And that's -- it sounds maybe unimportant, but it was actually a very big deal.
So 31 patients did come on with either hydroxyurea or anagrelide. And I think really importantly, 65% of them were able to come off. Come off because they don't need the hydroxyurea or anagrelide. The 989 study drug was clearly controlling the platelet count in the absence of that concomitant cytoreductive therapy.
This plot is a swimmer spot to maybe give you a little bit more granularity and help understand what we're really looking at. So this is the 24 to 250-milligram treated patients. Here is the 400 to 2,500. So the doses are listed here. And the responses down here are color coded. So this dark blue are the patients who had CR. The light blue are the PRs and then the base are the stable diseases. The triangles are the type 1s, the more frequent ones and then the circles of the type 2 and the others.
So you can quickly see that even at 70 milligrams, and this was just random -- wasn't -- we didn't try to just put type 1s at this dose, but it just happened to be. You get this very quick and durable control even at 70 milligrams. So you look at this and you say, "Well okay, but maybe not as durable or as impressive in the type 2s." But then you go to this side of the screen, and you start to see that at higher doses, you're starting to see these responses with the type 2 patients as well. Particularly here, we're seeing that response as well.
So I do think that there's a dose dependency. You probably need lower doses with type 1, higher doses with type 2. But I would say that across the board, patients with ET that have a mutant CALR protein enjoy some degree of response rapidly and safely with this compound. And only one patient again, discontinued treatment. All the other patients continue to receive every 2-week therapy.
This was really gratifying to see. We don't often check mutant CALR VAF in our patients who aren't on trial because most of our therapies don't meaningfully change it, and it's not something that would normally be done. But in the context of a clinical trial where you're asking the question, is this truly stem cell directed? You want to see some reduction in this VAF as a surrogate marker of disease burden.
And I think at a very early time point -- this is within 6 months. This is from the peripheral blood within 6 months of receiving therapy. These asterisks show the patients who only got up to 3 months, 3 cycles. So this is very short for a long-term disease where a median of 7 years before they got on the study, within months, we're seeing reductions in the CALR VAF. This is shaded by dose, so the darker the shade, the higher the dose. Most of these patients here we're at 750 milligrams. And this does include type 1 and type 2 patients. So you can get a sense that there's darker blue as you move to the right. And of course, there's also less time for the patients with darker blue that have the higher dose. So we need more time to see even further reductions in this biomarker.
All 18 molecular responders also achieved a hematologic response of CR, PR, it was mostly CRs. So correlating very nicely this change in biomarker with the clinical outcome measure of platelet control.
And then from the peripheral blood in 7 patients, single cell RNA sequencing was done. And by immunophenotype, this was shown in a previous slide, the HSPCs here and the myeloid/erythroid lineage derived cells down here in gold. These are the cells that are expressing mutant CALR in theory with thrombopoietin receptor. This is the targeted cell population for 989.
And you can see the very significant and within a short amount of time -- here are the 4 patients that we're highlighting at the different doses and pointing out that this patient here was a type 2 patient, you can see significant reductions in the CALR VAF in the whole blood, but it's driven by reductions in this population here, the stem cell population. So it's an anti-clonal, anti-stem cell-directed therapy. And with it, you have concomitant increase in the wild-type or normal cells that are CALR wild-type.
And then from the bone marrow, additional biomarker data that really, I think, is very satisfying to see with immunohistochemical staining for mutant CALR in yellow, blue are the mutant CALR negative megakaryocytes. After 6 cycles of therapy, you see a more normal profile of megakaryocytes with distancing of these cells and more prominent normal blue megakaryocytes. And again, on the right, the proportion of total MKs in the bone marrow go down, again, driven primarily by these mutant reduction in mutant cells with a concomitant increase in non-mutated megakaryocytes, what I would say is normal megakaryocytes. So bone marrow evidence of disease modification to complement molecular evidence from the peripheral blood.
So in conclusion, in this 2 studies combined, 989 monotherapy, I think anyone would agree, very well tolerated, very satisfying to see that in the ET population of patients who are in need of therapy, relapsed/refractory after cytoreductive therapy. We didn't see a DLT. We didn't even hit an MTD. We only had 1 patient dropped off for reasons that I think are unrelated to the study drug. And it is quite clear that you get a rapid and sustained hematologic response with this agent and probably more so with higher doses. And then this biomarker evidence of reducing the clone is very satisfying for a physician who is looking to not just control counts for a thrombotic purpose but change the natural tendency of this disease to be progressive and maybe even transform to myelofibrosis or acute leukemia.
So these findings are of significant note. And we look forward to sort of expanding the doses to continue to look at efficacy and follow safety. But I do think that this represents a very novel, a very simple, a very safe approach to treating mutant CALR ET patients. Thanks.
Thank you, John. Okay. I'm going to spend a few minutes now recapping some of what you've seen. But before we do that, it's very rare in drug development to see what we just witnessed over the past 10, 12 years from the -- to basically discover a new biology in 2013, reporting a new driver mutation for an entire group of diseases. We -- then designing a medicine specifically to address that problem, which is what 989 is, followed by a clinical experiment that basically replicates exactly what the preclinical data predicted we would see because everything that John just summarized is exactly what the preclinical data for 989 predicted we would see in terms of normalization of blood counts, reduction of mutated megakaryocytes and CD34 positive in the bone marrow and the peripheral blood.
So it's a great story, and I hope you share our excitement that we have at Incyte with this data and what we think this new medicine can do for patients.
So real quick, what did we learn today? Well, 989 in this patient population was very well tolerated. 1 out of 49 patients discontinued. It was a patient at 24 milligrams, the very first cohort. Dr. Mascarenhas described his impressions of that patient. It seems like it was a complication of the disease, unrelated to the drug. So very reassuring at this point in the clinical development of 989, the safety data that we have.
Normalization of platelet counts. And I think it's a very important distinction between reducing platelets, which a lot of medicines can do and normalizing platelets. What you see in the platelet count graph that John showed is that the platelet count drops. And when it gets to the normal level, it stabilizes. That's consistent with translational biology that he showed. But that's very different from having to keep the platelets there by constantly adjusting the dose of hydroxyurea or an anagrelide. Patients normalize, they don't just drop, very different.
We saw rapid and sustained reductions in VAF in most patients despite the fact that we have short follow-up. As you saw in Slide 42, the patients at the highest dose cohorts have relatively short follow-up. And despite that, so we believe that the VAF data will continue to look better and better over time because of the continued treatment of those patients.
And then very important to put the whole biology story together is the reduction in mutant CALR-positive megakaryocytes in the bone marrow and the reduction in mutant CALR-positive, CD34-positive cells in peripheral blood that really show that 989 is doing more than normalizing counts. It's basically addressing the disease at its core.
So what are the next steps for 989? We wanted to give you an idea of what's happening behind the scenes that what you're going to hear more about over the next several months. Our goal based on this data, and we are in the process of already expanding certain dose cohorts to understand better what the dose is for future development. That work is already ongoing. Our goal is to start pivotal trials in ET by early 2026. We appreciate the urgency of this, the importance of bringing true medicine that can change the natural history of the disease for ET patients and our job now is to do this as quickly as we can.
We will present, as we committed, data in myelofibrosis patients before the end of this year. That work is ongoing. The combination with ruxolitinib is ongoing. We mentioned before that we thought it was very important for the myelofibrosis data to have combination data with rux. Rux in myelofibrosis, as you know, improves survival and having that data together was very important before we disclose it, and we'll do that before the end of the year. And we will accelerate the development of 989 as a single agent and in combination with rux in patients with MF.
We announced early this morning, we established a collaboration with QIAGEN to develop a co-diagnostic across MPNs, initial focus in CALR mutations. So we are ready for that, and we're moving forward with our partner now.
And very importantly, the development of the subcu formulation is already ongoing. We believe that initially, the intravenous formulation every 2 weeks is acceptable. We'll hear from our KOLs, but we're already working on a subcutaneous formulation.
So then what is the scope of this -- of the patients or the impact that 999 can have in patients with ET. And there's a simple way to look at it, which you see summarized in the slide. If you take the entire population of patients with ET, both in the U.S. and the EU28, you divide that by 25%, which is approximately the frequency of CALR mutations, and then you divide them in two groups broadly, one group that basically is managed with watch and wait, which is about 1/3 to 1/4 of the patients and a group that is actively treated with cytoreductive therapy today. It's about 40,000 patients, give or take.
Just to put that in perspective, the total number of patients in the U.S. treated with Jakafi in 2024 across all indications were 28,000 patients. So this gives you an idea how many patients could potentially benefit from 989 once it's available to them.
Just to mention real quick, our commitment and Incyte for patients with MPN, as leaders in this space, continues. Our goal is to develop medicines for every single patient with myeloproliferative neoplasms. We're not done with 989. We introduced a T-cell engager bispecific. The data was presented today at the EHA conference, and it will enter the clinic very soon. And of course, many of you know the V617F inhibitor for the other most frequent driving mutation in MPNs. So just to repeat, our goal at Incyte is to have a solution for every single patient with a myeloproliferative neoplasm in the future.
And let me just close with something I showed at the beginning of the year, which was a very rich set of catalysts that we committed to you to deliver in 2025. And if you look at the first half, it's coming to a close that we have, I believe, done an excellent job delivering on those catalysts on time and across a range of indications that is in the process of how we defined at the beginning of the year to transform our pipeline.
So with that, let me stop, and we'll be happy to take questions from the room and online. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions]
2. Question Answer
Steve Willey from Stifel. Great data. I noticed in the cell types that harbor mutant CALR, it also looks like there's some positive NK cells and plasmacytoid dendritic cells. So just curious if you're depleting PDCs, if you would be concerned about antiviral immunity risk? And would you have to maybe prophylax these patients if you are indeed depleting that cell type?
Can you hear me? Yes. Now you can. Yes, that's interesting. Clinically, we do not see that these patients have anything beyond the sort of myeloproliferative phenotype. So we don't see any NK or dendritic cell phenotype. So that aspect of the expression profile needs to be looked at. For example, we need to look to see whether those cells actually express TPOR or not because that map that was shown is purely of mutant CALR expressing cells as opposed to cells that also express TPOR. So you can imagine that if they don't express TPOR, then the mutant CALR expression may not do anything. So that's work to be done. And at the moment, there's not a clinical indication as to why that might be a concern, but it's something to be checked.
I think that's correct, right? The key point here is that there's cells that carry the mutant form of CALR, but it's nonfunctional, right? So even though you saw positivity of mutant CALR on the UMAP within other cell types, the key slide that Dr. Nangalia showed where those cells will survive as long as the parent making that cell survives. So when you ablate or eliminate the mutant clone upstream, those cells will eventually disappear as well. But it's a slower process. It will happen across the natural half-life of that cell population. So even though CALR is there, you see it visualized in that UMAP, it's nonfunctional in those cells.
And then maybe just a quick question regarding potential Phase III trial design. There's obviously a couple of analogs that we've seen where you could run, I guess, kind of a post-hydroxyurea trial, just look at platelet normalization. I believe there's also a Phase III study of another drug going head-to-head against hydroxyurea where you'd have to look at events, I'm assuming -- and that would be a much longer study. So just curious as to how you're currently thinking about what the development pathway might look like here.
Sure. So we have -- as you mentioned, actually, as you summarized, we have a couple of different options. We could test 989 in patients previously untreated, or we could test it in patients that have received prior cytoreductive therapy, whether they either were inadequately controlled or they were intolerant. And as I think John mentioned, there's plenty of those patients, unfortunately, to enroll those trials.
It's a little bit early for me to comment on the specific design. I think that some of the designs you mentioned are pretty straightforward. Their ELN criteria for hematologic response is well established, something that some of our competitors have used in the past. However, I think it's important to understand that this medicine is different from everything else that has been tested in this disease. The VAF reduction that we saw today in a very short period of time is much more pronounced, and we expect will continue to deepen over time than what has been seen with other drug candidates in this disease.
That tells me that there's room to have a conversation with health authorities about looking at endpoints in a different way. We'll have those conversations in the near future. And depending on that, we'll design those studies appropriately. But it's a little bit too soon to commit to one path or another. We could develop this in both first and second-line ET and with traditional endpoints or with newer endpoints incorporating VAF in some way. Any other questions in the room?
So we'll take some questions online, Pablo.
Next question is from Brian Abrahams, RBC. It looks like there's modestly higher proportion of nonresponders in the type 2, particularly at lower doses. For the company, would you anticipate different doses to be applicable for different mutation types?
So as I mentioned in my closing remarks, we are in the process of expanding certain dose levels to understand the efficacy in a larger group of patients. And I think it's very important when one looks at the data, particularly if you look at Slide 42, that the 1,500 and 2,500-milligram cohorts have very short follow-up. So to conclude that a certain mutation needs a certain dose or not, I think it's too early to decide that.
What we've seen, to be clear, is responses in type 1 and non-type 1 patients. I think that's clear from the data that John summarized. And we believe that higher doses with longer follow-up will clarify a little bit what the design of future studies should be. For now, our commitment is obviously to develop 989 in all patients with ET regardless of mutation type. And we think that the data that we've seen, including the translational data, supports the role of 989 across the spectrum of the disease.
And a follow-up for Claire, John and Jyoti. Given the differences in prognosis and possible potency, how would you anticipate potentially using 989 in type 1 versus non-type 1 patients?
I mean, I think as per the answer to the last question, we still don't really know whether there really is a difference. And for me, the slide that showed the changes in the hematopoietic cell compartment, there were patients with type 1 and type 2. There was a type 2 patient there who responded beautifully at quite a low dose.
So I think we don't know yet. I think it's interesting to note that type 1 patients are the ones that have the higher risk of myelofibrosis. But I've treated patients with this disease for nearly 30 years. And I've got 3 patients on this study. I've got 8 patients waiting to go on this study. My patients are keen to be on the study. They're keen even if they have to come every 2 weeks for a 1-hour infusion. And if it becomes a subcut preparation, that's just the same as giving interferon effectively. So I don't think we would treat them any differently at the present time. Thank you.
Next question is from Ash Verma, UBS. So looking at the Q2 weekly or Q2W dosing, do you think that this is a barrier for patients? This is for the KOLs.
No. I don't think it's a barrier. And I think what Claire pointed out is exactly right. I think if it was a barrier, we wouldn't have put 49 patients on like that. If it was a barrier, we wouldn't have a list that we fight over to get our patients on. I have physician patients with mutant CALR that are coming in to get treated, knowing it's a Q2 week.
I think this data, if anything, reinforces the value despite a Q2-week infusion. I think if we saw a lot of infusion-related reactions or toxicity, that might be a different issue. But it's a very well-tolerated infusion. As Claire pointed out, perhaps if it was a subcutaneous delivered agent, it would make it even slightly more attractive than that. But no, the answer is no.
So a few questions coming from Jess Fye from JPMorgan. What is the hypothesized mechanism behind the lipase increase? And do you believe that this is on target or off target?
I'm going to ask Patrick to comment about the hypothetical mechanism, although we -- I'm not sure we have a hypothesis yet. But I want to emphasize the lipase increases were asymptomatic. They did not require dose adjustments, dose reductions. None of them led to dose discontinuation. So there were laboratory observations without any -- and they resolved spontaneously on drug. I think we need to understand that. No dose dependency, no discontinuations and they resolved spontaneously on drug and no symptoms of any related illness.
We just had a quick discussion actually. So Jyoti and I were discussing that, too. So lipase, Jyoti and I both work in hospitals that have Epic. We have a lot of pre-embedded tests for our patients. And we started seeing that actually in many MPN patients, lipase goes up and down. Maybe it's related to the platelet count, maybe it's something else. But for my patients, it's not meaningful. And I'll hand to Patrick in a minute, but I don't think there's really a clear mechanism unless it's some antibody interference we were conjecturing the other day with an assay, but it's totally asymptomatic. Patrick?
Completely agree. I mean it's not related with kind of the stage of dosing. It's not related to dose cycle. I think it's potentially something to do with the biology of the disease, and it's being measured here, right? There's extramedullary hematopoiesis happening in various tissues throughout the body. If those cells are responding in a meaningful way to this therapy, you may see blips like this. So I think it's in line with the points that have been made so far.
Follow-up question. Can you compare and contrast the profile we're seeing with 989 to what has been shown with other competitors such as bomedemstat?
So I think totally different. Bomedemstat, which is an LSD1 inhibitor is a drug that has to be dosed to platelet count. It's actually a more complex -- so it's a very interesting drug. It's a rational approach. But I would say completely different, different therapeutic, different delivery and different expectations.
If you were to ask me, ET is primarily treated in the community practice, like in the U.S., community practitioners probably treat 2/3 of ET patients. What you want to do for a disease like this is have a therapy that's simple, simple to deliver without a lot of need for dose adjustments or calculations like that. And what's really nice about 989 is it's an infusion basically probably going to be at the same dose at intervals that don't require one to dose adjust. And that's attractive when you're trying to avoid toxicity and maintain efficacy in the community setting. So to me, that separates this drug from almost all the other drugs that we use in the field.
Maybe I could also add having treated a lot of patients with bomedemstat, they get dysgeusia. They also get arthralgia. And there's no evidence at the present that, that drug changes anything in terms of disease pathology. There's no reduction in VAF, there's no normalization of the bone marrow. But don't get me wrong, it represents an important alternative for these patients who don't have other options, but it's not disease targeted and it's not well tolerated.
The only other thing that I would add is that I have never seen a drug in a Phase I study target the origin of the disease, the stem cell clone and reduced VAF. In the graph that we showed, the waterfall plot of reduction in VAF, you don't do those kinds of graphs in Phase I studies. You hope for something like that in a Phase III. So it's completely different in how it targets the origin of the disease.
So one last follow-up for our KOLs. Putting aside the VAF changes, can you talk about the clinical significance of a PR as it relates to platelets? Can you describe how the 600,000 threshold may be associated with reduced rates of thromboembolic events and/or transformation? Or should we focus on CR and normalization of platelets?
I need to think about that. So I'm one of the authors on the ELN response criteria. So I would say that those response criteria are developed on the basis of expert opinion, which is the worst level of evidence. They're generally -- I mean, they're worthwhile, but they're generally developed after a meeting like this, in a room where we all vote consecutively. And if we don't reach consensus, we can't leave the room.
So it's reasonable, but the first ever randomized study that was done in ET was done not far away from here in Bergamo. And in that study, randomizing patients to reducing the platelet count to less than 600,000 versus not, produced a significant reduction in events, and we have not yet bettered that with another treatment. So I think it's reasonable to say less than 600,000. There's no evidence that 400,000 versus 600,000 is actually better in ET. In PV, which is JAK2 driven, we just have some emerging data that might be the case. But I think the biology of CALR disease is different. John, do you want to add?
I totally agree. I'll just add the other point. If the question is, is 600,000 meaning getting -- and it is for some patients. So one of the phenomena that you see with thrombocytosis can be twofold. One are microvascular complications like headaches and brain fog and things like that, that do improve when you reduce the platelet count even below 600,000.
So what's not captured here is sometimes the patients feel better on with a lower platelet count. And then obviously, for some of the patients that we had that had really extreme thrombocytosis with an Acquired von Willebrand, particularly menstruating women that might have very heavy periods or people who have to go for surgery, you want to get that platelet count lower.
So getting under 600,000 usually removes the Acquired von Willebrand, usually resolves the headaches that plague these patients sometimes for years before the diagnosis is made. So even beyond the fact that there is Italian data demonstrating reduction in thrombosis, there's also a lot of quality of life and practicality issues with bringing the platelet count below 600,000. But to be honest, I like it under 400,000. So I think that...
Next question is from Malcolm Hoffman, BMO. Given the data we've seen so far in ET, what aspect of this data makes you most confident for the upcoming MF data later this year? What should our expectations be going into later years?
So let me tell you the way I look at it, and I was asking Dr. Nangalia to maybe comment as the expert in this mutation. They're very different diseases, ET and MF, but the molecular basis here is the same in terms of the -- what mutation in the CALR and the mutated protein does in terms of binding to TPO receptor, going to a cell surface and have driving an oncogenic signal. That's the same phenomenon.
So whatever preconception one had about the probability of success in MF before the data that we saw today, particularly translational data that shows the impact on the CD34-positive population and on mutated megakaryocytes, whatever preconception one has, has to be -- that probably has to go up because of the data we just saw. That's at least my opinion. And maybe Dr. Nangalia...
I mean I would say actually the data for clonal reduction in MF is perhaps closer to the clinic. So John has shown with imetelstat, we've shown with navitoclax, a 10% to 20% reduction in VAF actually reads out to overall survival advantage for MF patients. And this year, there was a nice New England Journal paper showing the only other treatment we have for MF that cures patients, but it's very toxic, its transplantation and clearance of the clone after transplant also led to benefit. But a more modest reduction, which may become even deeper over time is also likely to be significant. And I think both of us are already also treating patients with MF and have got very good experience. I don't know whether either of you want to add anything.
I would add from a biological perspective, myelofibrosis is also a stem cell-driven disease. It will -- 30% of patients will have a CALR mutation, but many of those patients with MF have now accumulated additional driver mutations, making the clone a much more faster-growing clone and therefore, associated with far greater complications in disease burden.
So if in myelofibrosis, you could also target the stem cell clone to significant levels like we're potentially seeing here with the ET data, that would be particularly exciting. And there's no reason to believe that, that won't happen provided that the CALR and the TPO are on the cell surface.
The second thing I would be interested in seeing is the trajectory of reduction because, again, in those situations, I'm very interested in, one, how many mutant cells you have and the disease burden; but two, how fast is that clone growing. So if you could again reduce the number of cells and reduce how quickly they are growing, then you might be on a path and a journey towards protection from your disease.
So I'd be interested in reduction of the stem cell clone in the MF data and trajectory of reduction, however slow or fast that is, I think as long as you're heading in the right direction, that will be a bonus.
I'd make one additional point. I think the genetic evidence is clear. Even in the setting of a secondary mutation that may make the clone more aggressive, those cells are still fully dependent upon CALR, that initial driver mutation. So that's very evident. So the ability to antagonize that, showing the clinical evidence of that in ET that should translate fully to MF based upon the genetic evidence.
Next question is from Derek Archila, Wells Fargo. This is for Pablo and Patrick. Which patients may be better suited for the monoclonal antibody versus the bispecific?
So the answer to that question, first of all, will depend on more data than we have so far. But it also depends very importantly on the T-cell engager. Not every T-cell engager is the same. We have designed our T-cell engager in a very specific way with a CALR arm that binds to a different epitope than 989. And what that means is it can potentially address the needs of patients that, for some reason, don't respond to 989 or that progress after 989 therapy, if that indeed happens, which obviously will take more time to determine.
So that's the thought process behind the T-cell engager that we designed at Incyte. Other T-cell engagers have differences with that. So I can't generalize that answer, but focused on the one that we're introducing in the clinic, that's the plan to be designed to treat patients with a different -- that progress or do not respond to 989.
I don't know, Patrick, if you want to comment further?
Next question is from Paul Jeng, Guggenheim. How are you thinking about long-term dosing strategy for mutant CALR in ET once initial platelet normalization and molecular responses are observed. Is there potential to explore a lower maintenance dose or different dosing frequency? And are there any differences in how might you think about dosing moving forward in ET versus MF?
Three great questions. Long-term dosing strategy, lower maintenance dose or frequency or difference between ET and MF. And obviously, we haven't reviewed the MF data, so I can't comment on that. And for the other two, we need time. We need to follow these patients for a longer period of time.
I think it's important to remember what we're trying to achieve here. What we're trying to provide patients with MPN with 989 is a path to cure. This is not just about normalizing platelets. It's a path to a cure. That requires profound VAF responses. So we'll continue to treat these patients in the studies, and we'll continue with the higher doses to see if we can get to that point. And then we'll have to discuss with our KOLs what the next steps instead of testing this frequent dosing or not are appropriate at a certain point in the future.
Next question is from Kripa Devarakonda. What are the time lines for the development of the subcu? And are you doing this in-house or in collaboration?
So I'm not going to provide time lines today, but development of subcu is being done. So the formulation development is done in-house and then the potential need for a device like an auto-injector, for example, will be done with a collaborator that -- those conversations are already ongoing. And we're looking for every possible way to accelerate development of the subcu formulation. We understand the importance in this population.
Next question from Jess from JPMorgan. Did you see any difference in response between mCALR exon 1 versus exon 2 patients?
Type 1 versus type 2. So I'll refer back to the preclinical data that we've publicly disclosed, right? You can refer to the Blood paper. This is an active drug against type 2 patient samples in the work that we've done.
I mentioned the binding affinity. This antibody binds with very high affinity to both type 1 and type 2. There is a subtle difference in binding 3.5-fold, but still a single-digit nanomolar binder to type 2. So this binds to and is active towards type 2 samples. We collected preclinically 8 type 2 patient cell -- patient samples, tested those in an ex vivo culture system, 6 of the 8 responded very well at the mid-dose that they were tested. This concentration relates to the dose range that we're covering in the study outlined here.
So this is an active drug against type 2. I think all the points raised around dose intensity, duration of treatment, et cetera, I think, is what we're going to have to just follow and see how it plays out there.
Next question from Brian Abrahams, RBC. Looking at the safety profile, could you elaborate a bit more on the rates of TEAEs for the therapeutic dose level greater than 400 milligrams?
I don't have the breakdown here for the different dose level. I would emphasize some of the comments I made earlier. The only drug discontinuation happened at 24 milligrams. There was no dose-dependent increase in adverse events. Patients continued on drug. There were no dose reductions. And as we mentioned a few times, only one patient discontinued drug in a Phase I study.
Maybe John and Claire from your direct experience with patients, different dose levels, you can comment. But so far, we have not seen any trend that seems to point to a dose dependency on any of the adverse events.
No. And I could -- to even add a little bit more color to that, even in this trial, there is intra-patient dose escalation allowed, which allows us to understand in a given individual, whether we would see a change in toxicity profile as one increases the dose. And even in patients who increased the dose, I didn't see any new treatment-emergent adverse events in those patients. So I think that's a pretty good test within a given patient that there really wasn't a dose-dependent TEAE profile.
I mean this was -- I've said it before, and I'll say again, this is really well tolerated. Even the treatment adverse events that you see there are classic clinical trial, a patient comes in, reports something, the CRCs record it necessarily, attribution is provided, but those are mostly grade 1, 2, things that often can be explained by the disease or concurrent illnesses likely unrelated to 898 (sic) [ 989 ].
I mean in Europe, we've been using very high doses. I have a patient on the top dose and my patients are doing well. That patient that's on the top dose, walks 15 flights of stairs to get to the infusion facility. Fatigue is a symptom that 90% of MPN patients complain of. So it's really not worse for these patients. I think it's actually surprisingly very well tolerated personally.
Next question coming from Kripa Devarakonda from Truist. It's a 2-part question for our KOLs. What do you think is the relevant significance of symptom improvement? For example, in MF, there's a lot of focus on TSS50. Would you say there's similar contribution focus in ET?
So there's -- in general, there's less symptomatology in ET than MF, which is a much more inflammatory-driven disease, although some patients with ET clearly do, and some of those are vasomotor symptoms. You didn't need a specific TSS score to get on to this study. So it makes it a little bit challenging to formally evaluate and report in a dose escalation study, what the symptom improvements are here.
I will just tell you anecdotally from the patients I treated, we definitely didn't see worsening of symptoms. If anything, for a lot of the symptoms, particularly headache-related symptoms, they got better.
I don't really have anything to add other than to say, I think interferon recently got approved in ET without a symptom endpoint. It's much less prevalent in myelofibrosis -- than in myelofibrosis. And yes, many of the symptoms do relate to the height of the platelet count.
But I think we shouldn't underestimate. If you remember the patient story I told you, the emotional and psychological burden of living with a chronic incurable disease and not having an available treatment that can address that disease, that leads to a kind of chronic morbidity or chronic stress state for a patient. So slightly unrelated, but I just want to put that point across.
Yes, I feel compelled to bring this point up again because it never comes out in these kind of slides. But actually, what I witnessed were patients who were more reengaged in life actually in ways that I had not seen them before. So there's something about reducing the platelet count that provides a certain degree of confidence in going out in the world, doing things that they probably were afraid to do or were depressed about. So there was a huge psychological component of this that does not read out on those slides nicely.
The only thing I'd like to add is telling patients you aren't going to do anything about their platelet count because their vascular risk is low and they're young and that they have to live with it is a very big demotivator. Telling them that you can offer them something that can reduce their disease burden potentially in the future, a path to cure is incredibly motivating. That's why stem cell transplants are an option. They don't improve your symptoms, but they offer you a chance of cure.
So making people feel better, but being able to prolong their survival and reduce their risk of transformation is a powerful motivator for using a drug in a condition.
Second part of the question and the last question online. Beyond platelet count and reduction in VAF, what would you see as additional metrics that strengthen the potential of disease-modifying activity?
I was really hoping disease modification would come up. It has kind of beautiful symmetry for me. Last year, I closed EHA in the presidential session with a very difficult question. Are we ready to disease-modify MPN? And there's kind of a beautiful symmetry for me to be now talking today and hearing the data beautifully presented by John.
I think, okay, controlling the platelet count, but reducing the VAF and then seeing those really powerful images of the marrow morphology with the yellow CALR megakaryocytes disappearing and the new, the non-mutant megakaryocytes reappearing and the changes in the progenitor cells. I think that's really powerful indication of disease modification. We also showed that with the MAJIC-PV data actually, that the progenitor cells change. I think that's really powerful. I'll hand over to my colleagues to also make a comment.
I couldn't agree with you more. For someone who -- I spent a lot of time with the pathologists looking at the bone marrows of every patient I see and seeing those changes in the bone marrow to me, would signify that there is a fundamental difference in the pathophysiology of the disease. I have to believe that, that ultimately pays off not just from a prettier good-looking marrow, but a better outcome for the patients.
Any questions in the room?
Okay. With that, we'll close the meeting. Thank you, everybody. Thank you everybody online for attending on a very early Sunday morning in the U.S. And we look forward to keeping you updated on the progress of this program in the next few months. Thanks again.
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Incyte — Shareholder/Analyst Call - Incyte Corporation
Incyte — Shareholder/Analyst Call - Incyte Corporation
🎯 Kernbotschaft
- Takeaway: Auf der EHA wurden Phase‑I‑Daten zu INCA033989 (mutant‑CALR mAb) vorgestellt: 49 ET‑Patienten (IV alle 2 Wochen, 24–2.500 mg) zeigten schnelle, anhaltende Normalisierung der Thrombozyten, messbare Reduktion der CALR‑VAF und histologische Abnahme mutierter Megakaryozyten/CD34+‑Zellen. Verträglichkeit gut, keine DLT/MTD.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Wirkmechanismus: Selektive Bindung an mutant CALR neutralisiert konstantes JAK/STAT‑Signal über TPOR, ohne normales TPO‑Signaling zu blockieren – rationale für klonale Reduktion.
- Klinische Befunde: Rasche Plättchen‑Normalisierung, 65% konnten begleitende Zytoreduktiva absetzen; 18 molekulare Responder korrelierten mit hämatologischer Remission.
- Entwicklungsplan: Kohorten‑Expansion läuft; Ziel für Start pivotaler ET‑Studien: Anfang 2026. MF‑Kombinationsdaten mit Ruxolitinib noch in 2025; Subkutis‑Formulierung und QIAGEN‑Co‑Diagnostic in Arbeit.
🔭 Neue Informationen
- Neu: Erstmals klinischer Beleg für frühe VAF‑Reduktion und parallele marrow‑Remodeling‑Befunde in ET (single‑cell‑ und IHC‑Daten). Diese Translationaldaten gehen über frühere Safety/PK‑Signale hinaus und stützen ein „disease‑modifying“ Narrativ.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Safety‑Risiken: Nachfrage zu NK/Plasmacytoider Dendriten (TPOR‑Expression) — Speaker sehen aktuell kein klinisches Immunrisiko; asymptomatische Lipase‑Anstiege ohne Pankreatitis wurden beobachtet und bewertet als transient/unklarer Ursache.
- Studien‑Design: Diskussion über Endpunkte (klassische ELN‑Hämatologie vs. Einbezug von VAF/molekularen Endpunkten) und ob Prüfdesigns 1. oder 2. Linie oder Head‑to‑head gegen HU sein sollen; Behörden‑Gespräche angekündigt.
- Dosis & Subgruppen: Anzeichen für Dosisabhängigkeit (Type‑1 vs Type‑2 CALR) — aber Follow‑up kurz; weitere Dosisexpansion nötig; Q2W‑Infusion derzeit akzeptiert, Subcut‑Form geplant.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit für Aktionäre: Starke Frühdaten mit positiver Sicherheits‑ und Biomarker‑Signatur deuten auf echtes disease‑modifying Potenzial bei CALR‑mutiertem ET. Wichtige Value‑Treiber: pivotal Start (Anf. 2026), MF‑Kombinationsdaten 2025, Subcut‑Form und Companion‑Test. Risiken: kurze Nachbeobachtungszeit, Dosisoptimierung und regulatorische Klärung der Endpunkte.
Incyte — Goldman Sachs 46th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Salveen Richter, biotechnology analyst at Goldman Sachs, and we're really pleased to have with us the team from Incyte. So next to me is Christiana Stamoulis, CFO, and Pablo Cagnoni, President and Head of R&D.
To start here, maybe we could have a high-level overview with regard to the outlook for the business, right, in the context of Jakavi's upcoming LOEs. Maybe just walk us through where you stand today with regard to not just the pipeline, but your ability to use BD and the forward strategy as you look to kind of offset the LOE aspect?
Sure. So we have been making strong progress executing on our strategy to diversify the revenue in our commercial portfolio in advance of the LOE and make sure that we have a number of new product launches leading into the LOE and around the time of the LOE to fill in the gap and continue to drive growth beyond 2029. So when you look, starting with our commercial portfolio, we have been expanding the commercial portfolio. Already, you see we have a significant base that we have been building beyond Jakavi. So Opzelura, for example, it's set at midpoint of the guidance that we have provided to contribute $650 million in revenues this year. And with significant growth left in the program, we have a portfolio of other oncology assets that are set to contribute over $400 million this year, again, with significant growth.
So you see just between those 2 components, we have over $1 billion in revenue this year coming from products outside Jakavi and with significant growth, as I said, left in those programs. We have 4 expected product launches, new product or indication launches this year, 2 already are happening, 2 to come. And we've said that we expect from those another $1 billion in contribution by 2029. So you can see the base that we are building without any further risk associated -- development risk associated, which will be playing out between now and '29. And then we have the pipeline, which is expected to contribute, as we have indicated, 10-plus high-impact launches between '26 and 2030 that is going to play the role that we have -- that I've said of filling the gap and continue to drive the growth beyond '29.
This is a very important year for Incyte because we are going to be turning the cards and have already started doing so on a number of programs. We have 4 programs with Phase III data, already 3 of those readouts have happened with a fourth to come and 7 programs -- and by the way, among those is povo for HS. And povo is expected to be a very significant program for Incyte and a program that we are developing across a number of indications. So we are already very pleased to see the HS data and additional readouts from Phase III studies to come next year. And then we have 7 proof-of-concept readouts for programs that have significant potential as well. Mutant-CALR is one of them that we are very excited about. We will be presenting data in ET on Sunday. And that's another program with significant revenue potential. We are also developing in MF. So we are making great progress towards that goal, and we believe that we are well positioned to address the LOE.
Great. Maybe starting here with mutant-CALR. So we saw initial Phase I data in the abstracts, but the full data is going to be presented coming up. Maybe walk us through what the high-level takeaway is from this update and how it informs your developmental strategy in both ET and MF?
So we think the data set that we put together, the abstract are a really, really important piece of data for the program for Incyte and for patients with MPN overall. Because I think it confirms 3 things that are really critical that we talked about for the past 1.5 years in hypothetical terms, and all 3 have turned out to be true. The first one was that a mutant-CALR antibody because of the specificity of this specific antibody that targets a neoepitope would fundamentally be well tolerated by patients. And I think that's clearly demonstrated by the abstract. 41 patients were enrolled at a range of doses, median exposure is about 20 weeks and only 1 of the 40 patients had to discontinue treatment. So that -- in a Phase I study, that tells you a lot about the tolerability of intervention. The second point was that we predicted that by shutting down the malignant clone and sparing the benign cells, the wild-type cells, this would lead to a correction of the manifestations of the disease.
And what we showed in the abstract is the platelet counts come down. But importantly, they normalize, which is different from reduction. You can reduce platelets with a number of interventions. You have to constantly adjust the dose, so you don't go too low. What we saw here in the curve is that platelets come down to a normal level. And then without those adjustments, they stay there through the follow-up that we showed in the abstract. And that's a really important principle. And the third was that we expected that there would be a certain level -- and early evidence is beyond my expectations, at least, there will be a certain level of reduction of the allele burden. By targeting the malignant clone, specifically the mutant-CALR positive TpoR receptor positive cells, there will be a reduction in the variable allele fraction of VAF, which we showed as well in the abstract. So in a way, we have established a very, very important principles that the mutant-CALR antibody, 989 as we call it, is well tolerated at the doses and for the length of duration given.
Number two, that it can improve or normalize some of the manifestations of disease in ET. And number three, that reduces the presence of the malignant clone. So that's ET data, which is what we're focused on now, and we're going to talk about more next Sunday. But whatever your preconception is about MF, I think your view of MF as an opportunity should be improved after the ET data that we put out. And the reason is it's the same molecular mechanism is the fact that the mutant-CALR protein by complexing with the TpoR receptor basically is an oncogenic signal that leads to proliferation of the normal clonal cells, which is a different lineage in ET than in MF, but it's the same principle. We'll have MF data later this year. What we've said several times was that we want to have the combination with Jakavi before we talk about MF because we believe that is a key element of the development plan. As we all know, Jakavi in first-line MF improves survival. And so to develop a new intervention in MF without having that combination data for us is premature. Once we have that data later this year, we'll talk about MF.
And is the combination approach versus a monotherapy approach primarily driven by positioning? Or is there the titration aspect or some other aspect that you need to manage with regard...?
No, honestly, look, there's a development path in MF that is single agent as well, potentially, which is in patients that either are intolerant or failed Jakavi so we're not ruling that out. But before we have the whole picture and we talk about this externally, we want to have more data with the combination. And as in any Phase I trial, first, you escalate a single agent and then you incorporate the combinations of the combination that is lagging a little bit behind, which is why we'll have it later this year.
Can you also speak to your confidence on the V617F program, where we'll see data later this year? And then what's the opportunity here?
Correct. So the -- look, I remain confident in our program. The principle, which we established preclinically, and we've showed a couple of times, including ASH 2023 is once again, is the other big driver mutation in MPNs, as you know, right, it's almost all the patients with PV and a good percentage of patients with MF and ET. So -- but the principle there is that by binding -- everybody knows that Jakavi is a dual JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor, so less selective there, but it's also less selective or very low selective between wild-type and mutated JAK2. By developing the 617F inhibitor, which is a specific JH2 inhibitor, we think we can deal with that lack of selectivity and potentially lead to similar effects in terms of reducing the malignant clone.
The window that we've shown is a little bit tighter, and we've showed that preclinically. But we think that with the right formulation, we can hit that window and lead to the same type of effects. And we'll have data later this year. That study, if you all remember, the first part of the Phase I study was in healthy volunteers in order to understand the formulation that we needed to advance. So that's why that is behind the CALR program in terms of generating data in patients.
Fast forward, say, you have positive data in hand for mCALR and 617F. How much of Jakavi have you offset through these 2 programs?
I mean I can -- Christiana can talk about revenue potential. I can tell you, when you just look at -- let's start with CALR because we put data out, okay? And so I think that's a little bit easier to talk about already. 25% -- sorry, it's about 100,000 patients with ET in the U.S., 25% of them are CALR positive. Of those, probably about 1/3 to 1/4 are indolent enough that they can be managed with either observation, maybe aspirin, about 2/3 to 3/4 require an intervention. Currently, those interventions are suboptimal, and we'll talk about this with KOLs next weekend. But clearly, a lot of patients become intolerant or refractory to hydroxyurea, which is the first-line cytoreductive therapy and other therapies after that.
So it's about 18,000 patients that potentially are the target population in the U.S., the same number, give or take, in Europe. So you're between 35,000 and 40,000 patients that at least in principle are the addressable population for the CALR antibody in ET. It's an important metric to know that Jakavi in the U.S. today, there are about 28,000 patients on treatment in PV, MF and GVHD. So in a way, that gives you an idea that just CALR it's a bigger addressable population that the total number of patients with Jakavi on treatment in the U.S. today, and we all know what the revenue of Jakavi is.
CALR in ET and...
CARL in ET alone, exactly. And then you add to that, that it's likely to be longer duration of therapy and obviously, a different price point for biologic that launches in the next few years. So I think the opportunity in ET alone is huge. And I don't know, if Christiana, you want to go beyond that in MF and the 617F, but I think...
Well, everything then becomes additive. You have MF and then you have 617F that would address MF and PV. So you can see how, as we have said in the past, we expect that we will be able not only if successful to replace Jakavi but grow significantly beyond. We will be addressing MF and PV and then we will be expanding into ET that as described, it's a very big opportunity. Bigger than what we have in Jakavi alone today.
Touching on Jakavi. So you reported a really nice first quarter, and you raised 2025 guidance to about 7% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. Just walk us through the key underlying dynamics for the remainder of '25, including how we should think about Part D redesign in the second half?
Yes. So Q1 was a very strong quarter. Jakavi grew 24% year-over-year. There were 3 components to this growth was demand 10%, 7% was coming from net price where the Part D redesign drove that effect. And then another 7% came from less destocking that we saw this year versus in Q1 of '24. Going forward, we expect the growth for the remaining of the year to be driven exclusively by demand. You won't expect to see that jump that you saw between Q1 and Q2 in prior quarters coming from net price impact. And the reason is Part D redesign. Part D redesign, if you recall, in the prior years, Q1 was always affected by the fact that for Medicare Part D, we were covering the donut hole. And that impact was reflected primarily in Q1. This year, under the Part D redesign, there is no longer the doughnut hole, but there is participation in the initial and catastrophic phases at 10% for the year -- for this first year.
However, Jakavi has qualified for the small biotech exception. And as part of this, we are participating only at 1% of the initial and catastrophic phases this year. So this provided a big benefit relative to the donut hole coverage that we had in the prior years. And that's the benefit that you saw reflected in the net price in the Q1 of this year. Again, this benefit is really reflected in Q1 versus Q1 of the prior quarters. So when you look at subsequent quarters, you should expect net price to be pretty stable. There would be still some benefit from the impact of commercial deductibles reset, which impacts Q1 that you won't see in the subsequent quarters, but that benefit would be outweighted by the 340B growth that we expect. So expect the net price to be pretty stable with really the growth to be driven by demand.
Sticking with the commercial business here. What are your expectations for Opzelura through the rest of the year and as we look longer term in terms of the sales trajectory?
So we provided guidance for Opzelura for this year. At the midpoint of the guidance is $650 million, reflecting around 28% growth year-over-year. We see growth coming both from the U.S. and Europe. In the U.S., we continue to see growth in both AD and vitiligo. And in Europe, growth driven by the continuing uptake in the countries where we have already commercialized Opzelura for vitiligo and the additional contribution coming from the new markets like Italy and Spain that are contributing in a more significant way this year. And we expect this to continue going forward. In addition, in the second half of the year, we expect in the U.S. the potential approval of Opzelura for pediatric AD. That would be another contributor to revenue. We see pediatric AD as a significant opportunity as you have 2 million children with mild-to-moderate AD that are still on corticosteroids.
So there is an opportunity there for Opzelura and especially given that itch is a very big problem and itch reduction is a big characteristic and differentiator for Opzelura. So that's another opportunity to expand the use of Opzelura. And then beyond AD and vitiligo, we see an opportunity for Opzelura to play a big role in other diseases where itch is an important characteristic. Again, the rapid itch reduction is very important here. So diseases like HS and PN, where we are developing currently, Opzelura could add to the overall opportunity. In HS, when you look at mild to moderate, it is at around 150,000 patients in the U.S. PN, prurigo nodularis is another 200,000 patients. So there are significant opportunities to continue to grow Opzelura.
And maybe touch on the expansion into the pediatric population and how big an opportunity that represents?
It's at around 2 million children between the age of 2 and 11. In the U.S., as I said, a big share of those children still use corticosteroid, TCRs, PCAs. So there would be a need for a product like Opzelura, especially given the itch reduction. We expect over time, in the long run, pediatric AD to represent at around 10% to 15% of the overall opportunity for Opzelura in atopic dermatitis. And that's very much in line with other products in those indications.
And how is compliance playing out in Vitiligo.
So vitiligo compliance has been an area where we have been working on because patients need, first of all, to stay on therapy for a longer period of time in order to see the results that we were able to demonstrate in the clinical studies. And they need to use the cream appropriately, apply it twice a day and for that longer period of time. And we've seen that patients don't necessarily comply with the appropriate use and a big part has to do with lack of information, education. And so there are a number of initiatives that we are currently pursuing to educate both the prescribers and the patients around the importance of staying on therapy and using the cream as they are supposed to use it. We are already seeing some benefits. The benefits translate into 2 metrics.
The one has to do with how many patients go beyond the first script. So we've seen that 40% plus patients were only getting one script and then weren't refilling their prescriptions. So we are seeing now this number coming down, which means they are using it more and didn't have the need to go back and get another script, another refill. And the second is what is the average number of refills a patient makes in 1 year of -- on therapy. And that's a number that is still all over the place. You have patients with a couple of tubes a year, and you have patients with 10 tubes a year. So what we are trying to do again through the various initiatives and increased education is get patients on using this Opzelura appropriately and see the number of tubes per patient start on average coming up.
Pivoting over to povo here. So the Phase III povo data in HS fell short of expectations, but the efficacy looked better in the biologics experienced patients. Maybe walk us through how you're thinking about the commercial strategy in light of this data and what the ultimate opportunity is?
Yes. I would challenge that fell short of expectations. Let's just set things -- let's agree where we are here. First of all, we had 2 positive Phase III trials, both hit the primary endpoint for both dose levels. And that's important. It was 12-week data as opposed to some of the other data that has been compared against, which tends to be week 16 data. So that needs to be kept in mind. There was an artificial threshold set out there. We don't know where that came from. But from our perspective, we have a new medicine for HS. We 2 positive Phase III trials. And importantly, aside from primary endpoint, there was a very important -- and we replicated the impact on pain improvement that we had from Phase II, which we think is very important. Pain is the #1 symptom in patients with HS. Obviously, the lesions are very bothersome for these patients for a long list of reasons, but pain is a very important symptom. And pain improvement on povo, we believe, remains at least for orals, best-in-class. So that's where we are.
In addition to that, we showed 18-week data, which all the caveats to the fact that it's open-label data. When you look at the placebo patients that crossed over, we doubled the number of responders, not the percentage because the denominator changes, but the number of responders doubles in 6 weeks only when they switched from placebo to povo. So overall, we're very happy with the data. And as you point out, Salveen, the data in biologic exposed patients looks even better with a 15 to 20 percentage point placebo-adjusted rates of HiSCR. So as we see povo eventually come into the market either late '26, early '27 as we submit the application of FDA later this year, probably early '26, we believe there's a couple of different groups of patients and pools of patients available at the time of launch. And that's an important thing, new patients ready at the time of launch. And there's a group of patients that probably prefer strongly an oral over an injectable.
In our discussions with KOLs and others, that percent is about 10% to 15% of patients, and it probably presents about 3,000 patients ready to go when povo is launched that are waiting for an oral option. Then you have a group of patients that are already biologic experienced at the time of launch. And those patients that have received an anti-TNF and/or an anti-IL-17 are ready for a new mechanism. We think that pool of patients is ready for povo. In addition to a group of patients for which perhaps povo because of pain improvements or others is competitive as well. When you put all that group of patients together, it's about 30,000 patients that are good candidates for povo, which we think is a very substantial commercial opportunity. I think it's important to remember that HS, the treatment flow here, patients won't disappear, right? They are -- this is a chronic disease, unfortunately, not curable.
Patients were cycled through different mechanisms. And our prediction is that they will cycle different mechanisms. They will not repeat the same mechanism over and over. So you'll have biologics anti-TNF, biologics anti-IL-17, and then we'll have an oral JAK1 inhibitor. We think that based on Phase II to Phase II data, we have so far in HS, the best-in-class JAK1 inhibitor. Obviously, the RINVOQ data will come next year, and we'll see what it looks like. But at least particularly when you look at pain, Phase II to Phase II data, our pain data are significant -- far superior to our competitors. So in summary, we think we have potentially a best-in-class oral JAK1 inhibitor for HS. We think we have important segments of the HS, moderate to severe population where povo will compete very well, if not be better than biologics. And we think that creates a very significant commercial opportunity in HS alone. And then all the other indications that we've talked about, PN, vitiligo, we have proof of concept now in CSU as well, and we'll have asthma proof of concept later this year.
Pablo, when you look across your pipeline right now, what are you most excited about?
Look, I'm excited about the overall pipeline in the sense that we have a very well diversified by mechanism, by therapeutic area, by modality pipeline across the board. We have some bispecifics. We have some traditional biologics. We have T cell engagers. We have obviously small molecules, and we have topicals still developing rux cream in other indications. And I think that provides a really important derisking across a range of potential therapeutic areas and indications. Honestly, I think it's not to be excited -- it's hard not to be excited about the CALR data. I mean we put it out just a few days ago. We're going to talk more about on Sunday. I think it's the type of data that really -- it's not just that I believe it's positive data at this stage of development.
It's the type of data that potentially redefines how you treat a group of malignancies. And I think that is rare in drug development. We designed the drug to do specifically this, to suppress the malignant clone in myeloproliferative neoplasms. And it turns out based on the early data that, that's exactly that. That doesn't exist today for these patients. We think this will continue to change the goal of therapy in patients with MPNs from simply correcting the counts and improving the symptoms to doing that, but also to potentially have a path to a potential cure in these patients. And I think that is honestly a rare privilege in drug development. So it's hard not to be excited about that.
And when could we get next updates across your CDK2 and KRAS G12D as well as Escient programs?
Yes. Look, we're going to have additional updates later this year. So the CDK2 program, we updated it at ASCO. We are staying at about a 30% response rate with good durability and dose response over between 4 and 5 months. So we're happy with the data. We're pushing as fast as possible to an accelerated approval in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer. In parallel with that, we're launching randomized trials in platinum-resistant, and we're finishing the work in combination with bevacizumab for platinum-sensitive disease. We think this is going to be an important new medicine for patients with ovarian cancer. We realize how competitive platinum-resistant setting is, but we think that's why we need to establish this new medicine over time in platinum-sensitive disease.
It's oral. It's well tolerated, minimal dose adjustments in the Phase I study. We think that it could play a very important role in platinum-sensitive disease. KRAS G12D is a very competitive space, as you all know. Based on our preclinical profile, we think we have a competitor. We'll have data later this year. We should talk about it with that data out. We think there's still a path to compete in pancreatic cancer. We obviously need to see what that data looks like, how it stacks with RevMed and others. But we think potentially if we have the right single-agent activity together with combinability with chemotherapy, we think there is a path to compete in pancreatic cancer still.
Great. Maybe a last question here on capital allocation. So you've noted that you continue to monitor opportunities, but are unlikely to do any major deals given the catalyst path this year. How should we think about scenarios here? And could this change on the forward?
So the priority continues to be the pipeline. You see how much we have going on with 7 proof-of-concept readouts this year, you could see at least a subset of those programs moving into pivotal trials. So we have a lot already going on in the pipeline, and that's the priority. Over time, we will be looking at the pipeline, the drivers, our financial profile and decide whether we want to supplement our internal activities. But right now, the priority is the internal portfolio. We have the financial flexibility opportunistically to look at bringing in assets from the outside. But the -- given how much we have going on at the later stage, the focus is more on the early-stage technologies capabilities that would help with the discovery efforts in the early part of the pipeline or if we were to find commercial, near commercial assets that would add to revenues without significantly adding to revenue at least -- to R&D burn at least for a long period of time, it's something that we will consider as well. But again, the priority is the internal pipeline.
Great. Well, with that, Christiana and Pablo, thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thanks, everyone.
Transkripte auf Deutsch freischalten
- Alle Event Transkripte auf Deutsch
- Sofortige Übersetzung
- KI-Zusammenfassungen für die wichtigsten Insights
Incyte — Goldman Sachs 46th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
Incyte — Goldman Sachs 46th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
📣 Kernbotschaft
- Zusammenfassung: Incyte stellt sich aktiv auf das Jakavi-LOE (Loss of Exclusivity; Patentverlust) ein: Ausbau des kommerziellen Portfolios (Opzelura, Onkologie-Assets) liefert >$1 Mrd. Umsatz in 2026 aus Nicht‑Jakavi-Produkten; Opzelura guidance-Mittelpunkt $650 Mio.; 4 Launches 2026 und Erwartung von 10+ „high‑impact“ Launches 2026–2030.
🎯 Strategische Highlights
- Pipeline-Fokus: Betonung auf biologics und small molecules: mutant‑CALR‑Antikörper (989) zeigt gute Toleranz, Normalisierung der Thrombozyten und Reduktion der Variant Allele Fraction (VAF) in ET; MF‑Kombinationsdaten stehen noch aus.
- Weitere Programme: JAK2 V617F (JH2‑selektiv) als Kandidat für PV/MF; CDK2, KRAS G12D, Escient und weitere Updates noch 2026 geplant.
- Kommerzielle Assets: Povo (HS) mit zwei positiven Phase‑III‑Studien, besseres Signal bei biologic‑erfahrenen Patienten; Opzelura: Pediatrics H2‑Chance, breitere Indikationsexpansion (HS, PN).
🆕 Neue Informationen
- Timing & Umfang: Management nennt konkret: 4 Produkt-/Indikationslaunches 2026, 3 von 4 Phase‑III‑Readouts bereits erfolgt, viertes folgt; Ziel zusätzlich ~$1 Mrd. Beitrag bis 2029 aus laufenden Launches; povo Zulassungsaktualisierung soll Einreichung noch 2026 ermöglichen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Jakavi‑Ersatz: Kernfrage war, wie viel Jakavi durch CALR/617F/povo ersetzt werden kann; Management gab adressierbare Patientenzahlen (CALR ET ~35–40k global) und qualitative Erläuterungen, aber keine präzise Umsatz‑Substitutionskurve.
- mCALR vs. MF: Nachfrage nach Entwicklungsplan: ET‑Daten positiv, MF‑Entwicklung soll Kombination mit Jakavi zeigen — Kombinationsdaten später in 2026 erwartet.
- Kommerzielle Fragen: Povo‑Positionierung nach gemischter Wahrnehmung der Phase‑III‑Daten, Opzelura‑Compliance und Pediatric‑Markt waren weitere Diskussionspunkte.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Fazit für Anleger: Incyte präsentiert einen glaubhaften Pfad zur Diversifizierung vor dem Jakavi‑LOE: mehrere späte Readouts und kommerzielle Initiativen könnten Jakavi‑Umsatz kompensieren und Wachstum ermöglichen. Schlüsselrisiken bleiben daten‑ und zeitpunktabhängig (insb. MF‑Kombinationen, kommerzielle Uptake‑Raten, Zulassungen). Beobachten: mCALR‑ Vollpublikation, 617F‑ und Combo‑Readouts sowie povo‑Zulassungsfortschritte.
Finanzdaten von Incyte
Umsatz
Der Umsatz stellt die Summe aller Einnahmen eines Unternehmens z. B. für dessen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen dar.
Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
Direkte Kosten sind die Kosten, die direkt im Zusammenhang mit der Herstellung des Produkts oder der Dienstleistung entstehen.
Bruttoertrag
Der Bruttoertrag gibt an, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellkosten im Unternehmen verbleibt. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der Bruttomarge (engl. Gross Margin).
Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Mär '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz | 5.361 5.361 |
21 %
21 %
100 %
|
|
| - Direkte Kosten | 377 377 |
25 %
25 %
7 %
|
|
| Bruttoertrag | 4.984 4.984 |
21 %
21 %
93 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | 1.379 1.379 |
11 %
11 %
26 %
|
|
| - Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten | 2.129 2.129 |
18 %
18 %
40 %
|
|
| EBITDA | 1.477 1.477 |
464 %
464 %
28 %
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | 27 27 |
11 %
11 %
0 %
|
|
| EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis) EBIT | 1.450 1.450 |
509 %
509 %
27 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 1.432 1.432 |
6.631 %
6.631 %
27 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen USD.
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Firmenprofil
Incyte Corp. ist ein biopharmazeutisches Unternehmen, das sich mit der Entdeckung, Entwicklung und Kommerzialisierung von firmeneigenen Therapeutika beschäftigt. Sein Portfolio umfasst Verbindungen in verschiedenen Stadien, von der präklinischen bis zur späten Entwicklungsphase, und kommerzialisierte Produkte wie JAKAFI (Ruxolitinib) und ICLUSIG (Ponatinib). Das Unternehmen wurde im April 1991 von Roy A. Whitfield gegründet und hat seinen Hauptsitz in Wilmington, DE.
aktien.guide Premium
| Hauptsitz | USA |
| CEO | Mr. Meury |
| Mitarbeiter | 2.844 |
| Gegründet | 1991 |
| Webseite | www.incyte.com |


