Gjensidige Forsikring Aktienkurs
Vergleich mit Peer Group
📊 Peer Group
📈 Was ist das?
Die Peer Group sind die Unternehmen mit dem ähnlichsten Geschäftsmodell. Sie dienen als Vergleichsmaßstab, um eine Aktie einzuordnen.
🧮 Wie wird sie ausgewählt?
Nach Ähnlichkeit des Geschäftsmodells, also Unternehmen aus derselben Branche, mit vergleichbaren Produkten und einer ähnlichen Kundengruppe. Nur so vergleichst du Äpfel mit Äpfeln.
🏛️ Wofür ist sie wichtig?
Ob eine Aktie günstig oder teuer ist, lässt sich am ehesten im Vergleich beurteilen. Ein KGV von 18 oder ein EV/FCF von 20 wirkt je nach Maßstab günstig oder teuer. Die Peer Group liefert dabei den treffsichersten Maßstab: Unternehmen mit ähnlichem Geschäftsmodell, die denselben Bedingungen unterliegen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
Liegt eine Kennzahl unter dem Peer-Durchschnitt, ist die Aktie relativ günstiger bewertet, über dem Durchschnitt entsprechend teurer. Ein Abschlag zur Peer Group kann eine Chance sein, aber auch einen Grund haben (zum Beispiel geringeres Wachstum). Der Vergleich ist ein Startpunkt, kein Urteil.
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📘 Marktkapitalisierung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Marktkapitalisierung zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen laut Börse aktuell wert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft Unternehmen in Größenklassen (Large, Mid, Small Cap) einzuordnen und gibt Hinweise auf Marktmacht und Stabilität.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Große Unternehmen gelten als stabiler, zahlen oft Dividenden, wachsen aber langsamer.
- Kleine Firmen können stärker wachsen, sind aber schwankungsanfälliger.
- Die Marktkapitalisierung ist ein guter Indikator für Unternehmensgröße, aber kein Maß für Unter- oder Überbewertung.
📘 Enterprise Value (Unternehmenswert)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Enterprise Value (EV) zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich kostet, wenn man es komplett übernehmen würde – inklusive Schulden und abzüglich Cash.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
(= Marktkapitalisierung + Nettoverschuldung)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der EV ist eine realistischere Bewertungsbasis als die Marktkapitalisierung, da er die Kapitalstruktur berücksichtigt. Er ist Grundlage für Kennzahlen wie EV/FCF oder EV/Sales.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Der Enterprise Value zeigt, was ein Unternehmen tatsächlich wert ist – unabhängig davon, wie es finanziert ist.
- Er ist besonders wichtig für professionelle Investoren, da er eine objektivere Grundlage für Bewertungsvergleiche bietet als die Marktkapitalisierung allein.
- Ein Unternehmen mit hoher Verschuldung erscheint im EV teurer, eines mit viel Cash günstiger – auch wenn sie an der Börse gleich viel wert sind.
📘 Nettoverschuldung
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettoverschuldung zeigt, wie viele Schulden nach Abzug des verfügbaren Cashs tatsächlich verbleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen von Fremdkapital abhängig ist – und wie gut es in der Lage ist, seine Schulden kurzfristig zu bedienen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige oder negative Nettoverschuldung bedeutet hohe finanzielle Stabilität.
- Unternehmen mit viel Cash und geringer Verschuldung sind besser gerüstet für Krisen.
- Eine hohe Nettoverschuldung erhöht das Risiko – besonders bei steigenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
📘 Cash
📈 Was ist das?
Der Cashbestand zeigt, wie viele liquide Mittel einem Unternehmen sofort zur Verfügung stehen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Er gibt Auskunft über die finanzielle Flexibilität: Ein hoher Cashbestand ermöglicht Investitionen, Rückkäufe oder Krisenresistenz.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Cashbestand zeigt finanzielle Stärke und Handlungsspielraum.
- Cash kann für Investitionen, Schuldentilgung oder Aktienrückkäufe genutzt werden.
- Allerdings: Zu viel ungenutztes Kapital kann auch auf mangelnde Investitionsideen hinweisen.
📘 Anzahl ausstehender Aktien
📈 Was ist das?
Die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien gibt an, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell im Umlauf sind und von Investoren gehalten werden.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die Grundlage für viele Kennzahlen wie Gewinn je Aktie (EPS), Marktkapitalisierung oder KGV.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Je weniger Aktien im Umlauf sind, desto höher fällt z. B. der Gewinn je Aktie aus – wichtig für Bewertung und Dividendenrendite.
- Aktienrückkäufe verringern die Anzahl ausstehender Aktien – und steigern den Wert je Aktie.
- Kapitalerhöhungen haben den gegenteiligen Effekt: mehr Aktien → Verwässerung der bestehenden Anteile.
📘 Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KGV zeigt, wie oft der Gewinn pro Aktie im aktuellen Aktienkurs enthalten ist – also wie „teuer“ eine Aktie im Verhältnis zum Gewinn ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KGV gehört zu den bekanntesten Bewertungskennzahlen. Es hilft Anlegern einzuschätzen, ob eine Aktie im Vergleich zu ihrem Gewinn eher günstig oder teuer erscheint.
🧮 Berechnung
📊 KGV (TTM) = bezogen auf den Gewinn der letzten 12 Monate (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KGV kann auf eine günstige Bewertung hindeuten – oder auf Probleme im Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein hohes KGV kann Wachstumserwartungen widerspiegeln – oder eine überbewertete Aktie.
📘 Kurs-Umsatz-Verhältnis (KUV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KUV zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen – unabhängig vom Gewinn.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KUV ist besonders bei wachstumsstarken oder noch nicht profitablen Unternehmen hilfreich. Es zeigt, wie hoch der Umsatz an der Börse bewertet wird.
🧮 Berechnung
Marktkapitalisierung = 130,10 Mrd. kr | Umsatz (TTM) = 43,80 Mrd. kr
Marktkapitalisierung = 130,10 Mrd. kr | Umsatz erwartet = 46,30 Mrd. kr
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges KUV kann auf Unterbewertung hindeuten – oder auf schwache Margen.
- Ein hohes KUV kann hohe Erwartungen widerspiegeln – oder übermäßigen Optimismus.
- Besonders sinnvoll bei Wachstumsunternehmen, bei denen der Gewinn oder Free Cashflow (noch) keine Aussagekraft hat.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Umsatz (EV/Sales)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/Sales zeigt, wie viel Anleger für 1 € Umsatz eines Unternehmens zahlen, wenn man auch Schulden und Cash berücksichtigt – es ist eine kapitalstrukturbereinigte Version des KUV.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl eignet sich besonders für den Vergleich von Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Verschuldung – sie zeigt, wie teuer ein Unternehmen tatsächlich im Verhältnis zum Umsatz ist.
🧮 Berechnung
Enterprise Value = 130,94 Mrd. kr | Umsatz (TTM) = 43,80 Mrd. kr
Enterprise Value = 130,94 Mrd. kr | Umsatz erwartet = 46,30 Mrd. kr
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EV/Sales ist neutral gegenüber der Kapitalstruktur und eignet sich gut für Unternehmensvergleiche.
- Ein niedriges Verhältnis kann auf eine günstig bewertete Aktie hindeuten – ein hohes Verhältnis auf hohe Erwartungen oder Überbewertung.
- Besonders nützlich bei wachstumsstarken, noch nicht profitablen Firmen.
📘 Unternehmenswert zu Free Cashflow (EV/FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
EV/FCF zeigt, wie viele Jahre es dauern würde, bis ein Unternehmen seinen Unternehmenswert durch freien Cashflow „zurückverdient”.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Unternehmen auf Basis ihrer tatsächlichen Cash-Erträge zu bewerten – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder buchhalterischem Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriges EV/FCF deutet auf eine günstige Bewertung bei starker Cashgenerierung hin.
- Ein hohes EV/FCF kann entweder auf Optimismus oder auf temporär schwachen Cashflow hindeuten.
- Besonders hilfreich bei reifen, profitablen Unternehmen mit stabilen Cashflows.
📘 Kurs-Buchwert-Verhältnis (KBV)
📈 Was ist das?
Das KBV zeigt, wie hoch der Marktwert eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zu seinem bilanziellen Eigenkapital ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das KBV ist besonders bei Substanzwerten (z. B. Banken, Industrie) relevant. Es hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob ein Unternehmen unter oder über seinem buchhalterischen Vermögen bewertet ist.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein KBV unter 1 kann auf Unterbewertung oder schwache Rentabilität hindeuten.
- Ein KBV über 1 zeigt, dass der Markt dem Unternehmen Mehrwert über den Buchwert hinaus zuschreibt (z. B. Marken, Patente, Wachstum).
- Das KBV eignet sich besonders gut für Unternehmen mit stabilen, materiellen Vermögenswerten.
📘 Dividende je Aktie
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividende je Aktie zeigt, wie viel Geld ein Unternehmen pro Aktie an seine Aktionäre ausschüttet – typischerweise jährlich oder quartalsweise.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie ist die absolute Größe der Auszahlung je Aktie – wichtig für alle, die regelmäßige Erträge suchen oder Dividendenstrategien verfolgen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile oder wachsende Dividende je Aktie ist oft ein Zeichen für ein solides Geschäftsmodell.
- Die Dividende je Aktie allein sagt aber nichts über die Rendite – dafür ist auch der Aktienkurs relevant (→ Dividendenrendite).
- Langfristig steigende Dividenden sind oft ein sehr gutes Merkmal (z. B. Dividenden-Aristokraten).
📘 Dividendenrendite
📈 Was ist das?
Die Dividendenrendite zeigt, wie hoch die Dividende eines Unternehmens im Verhältnis zum Aktienkurs ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft dabei, Dividendenaktien vergleichbar zu machen – unabhängig vom absoluten Auszahlungsbetrag.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine stabile Dividendenrendite kann auf verlässliche Ausschüttungen hinweisen.
- Ein Vergleich der 1J- und 5J-Rendite hilft zu erkennen, ob das Dividendenwachstum mit dem Kurswachstum Schritt hält.
- Eine niedrige Rendite ist nicht zwingend negativ – sie kann auf starkes Kurswachstum hindeuten.
📘 Dividendenwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Dividendenwachstum zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen seine Dividende je Aktie über die Zeit gesteigert hat.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
5J: durchschnittliche jährliche Wachstumsrate (CAGR)
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Stetig steigende Dividenden gelten als Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und Aktionärsorientierung – besonders interessant für langfristige Investoren.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein stabiles Dividendenwachstum ist ein Zeichen nachhaltiger Ertragskraft.
- Ein hohes Dividendenwachstum kann ein erheblicher Hebel deiner Rendite sein:
- Wenn ein Unternehmen z. B. 1 € Dividende zahlt und diese über 5 Jahre jährlich um 15 % erhöht, bekommst du im 5. Jahr bereits 2 € je Aktie – doppelt so viel wie zu Beginn!
📘 Ausschüttungsquote (Payout)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Ausschüttungsquote zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Unternehmensgewinns (pro Aktie) als Dividende an die Aktionäre ausgeschüttet wird.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Quote hilft einzuschätzen, ob eine Dividende auf Dauer tragfähig ist – besonders im Verhältnis zum erzielten Gewinn.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine niedrige Ausschüttungsquote bedeutet: Das Unternehmen behält einen größeren Teil des Gewinns für Investitionen – typisch für Wachstumsunternehmen.
- Eine moderate Quote (z. B. 25–50 %) steht oft für ein gesundes Gleichgewicht zwischen Ausschüttung und Zukunftsinvestitionen.
- Hohe Ausschüttungsquoten können attraktiv wirken, sind aber riskanter, wenn die Gewinne schwanken oder sinken.
📘 Dividendensteigerungen in Folge (Erhöhungen)
📈 Was ist das?
Diese Kennzahl zeigt, wie viele Jahre in Folge ein Unternehmen seine Dividende pro Aktie erhöht hat – ohne Kürzung oder Aussetzung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein langer Track Record kontinuierlicher Erhöhungen spricht für Verlässlichkeit, solide Finanzen und aktionärsfreundliche Unternehmenspolitik.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein langer Zeitraum mit Dividendensteigerungen stärkt das Vertrauen – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Solche Unternehmen gelten als verlässlich und planbar für Einkommensinvestoren.
- Je länger die Serie, desto stärker das Commitment gegenüber den Aktionären.
📘 Umsatz
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz zeigt, wie viel ein Unternehmen insgesamt mit seinen Produkten und Dienstleistungen verdient – also den Bruttoerlös vor Abzug von Kosten.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Umsatz ist eine der zentralen Kennzahlen zur Einschätzung der Unternehmensgröße, Marktstellung und Wachstumskraft.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein wachsender Umsatz zeigt eine steigende Nachfrage und kann ein guter Frühindikator für Gewinnsteigerungen sein.
- Vergleiche von aktuellem und erwartetem Umsatz geben Hinweise auf das Marktumfeld und Analystenerwartungen.
- Wichtig: Starker Umsatz allein genügt nicht – auch Margen und Profitabilität zählen.
📘 EBITDA
📈 Was ist das?
EBITDA steht für „Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens, bereinigt um bilanztechnische und finanzierungsbedingte Effekte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBITDA ist eine verbreitete Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der operativen Leistungsfähigkeit – insbesondere bei kapitalintensiven Unternehmen oder im internationalen Vergleich.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes oder wachsendes EBITDA spricht für starke operative Erträge – unabhängig von Bilanzierung oder Steuerlast.
- EBITDA ist besonders nützlich, um Unternehmen branchenübergreifend zu vergleichen.
- Wichtig: EBITDA ist keine offizielle Gewinnkennzahl – Abschreibungen und Finanzierungskosten werden ausgeklammert.
📘 EBIT
📈 Was ist das?
EBIT steht für „Earnings Before Interest and Taxes“ – also Gewinn vor Zinsen und Steuern. Es zeigt das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Finanzierungs- und Steueraufwand.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EBIT ist eine zentrale Kennzahl zur Beurteilung der Profitabilität aus dem Kerngeschäft – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder Steuersystem.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hohes EBIT deutet auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft hin – vor Zinslasten oder steuerlichen Effekten.
- Es erlaubt objektivere Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen mit unterschiedlicher Finanzierung.
- Im Vergleich mit EBITDA zeigt EBIT bereits den Einfluss von Abschreibungen auf das operative Ergebnis.
📘 Nettogewinn
📈 Was ist das?
Der Nettogewinn ist der verbleibende Jahresüberschuss (oder -fehlbetrag) eines Unternehmens – nach Abzug aller Kosten, Steuern, Zinsen und Abschreibungen
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Nettogewinn ist die zentrale Erfolgskennzahl – er zeigt, wie profitabel ein Unternehmen nach allen Kosten tatsächlich arbeitet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein steigender Nettogewinn zeigt, dass das Unternehmen effizient wirtschaftet – trotz aller Kosten.
- Die Entwicklung des Gewinns beeinflusst z. B. direkt das KGV und weitere Kennzahlen.
- Im Zeitverlauf lässt sich ablesen, wie stabil und profitabel ein Geschäftsmodell wirklich ist.
📘 Free Cashflow (FCF)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow gibt Aufschluss über die echte finanzielle Stärke eines Unternehmens – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln. Er zeigt, wie viel Spielraum für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldenabbau besteht.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow bedeutet, dass ein Unternehmen echte Finanzkraft besitzt – unabhängig vom bilanzierten Gewinn.
- Er ist oft die solideste Grundlage für nachhaltige Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe.
- Sinkender FCF kann ein Warnsignal sein – auch wenn der Gewinn stabil aussieht.
📘 Umsatzwachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Umsatzwachstum zeigt, wie stark sich die Erlöse eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert haben – tatsächlich (TTM) und auf Prognosebasis (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (Umsatz erwartet ÷ Umsatz Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein wachsender Umsatz ist ein zentrales Signal für steigende Nachfrage, Geschäftsausweitung und Marktanteilsgewinne – besonders bei Wachstumsunternehmen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachstum ist der Motor langfristiger Wertsteigerung – besonders bei Technologie- und Wachstumsaktien.
- Wichtig ist nicht nur das aktuelle Wachstum, sondern auch dessen Nachhaltigkeit.
- Prognosen zeigen, ob Analysten weiteres Potenzial erwarten – oder eine Verlangsamung.
📘 EBITDA-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBITDA-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBITDA ÷ EBITDA Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Ein steigendes EBITDA ist ein Zeichen für verbesserte operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Finanzierungsstruktur oder Abschreibungen.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Starkes EBITDA-Wachstum signalisiert operative Effizienz und Skalierung – besonders relevant in Wachstumsphasen.
- EBITDA-Wachstum ist ein Frühindikator für Margen- und Gewinnentwicklung – sollte aber stets im Zusammenhang mit Umsatz und EBIT betrachtet werden.
📘 EBIT Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das EBIT-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark das operative Ergebnis eines Unternehmens (nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern) im Vergleich zum Vorjahr gewachsen ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwartetes EBIT ÷ EBIT Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Erwartetes Wachstum basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein direkter Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung des operativen Geschäfts – unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (Abschreibungen).
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Steigendes EBIT signalisiert wachsende operative Rentabilität – auch unter Berücksichtigung von Abschreibungen.
- Das EBIT-Wachstum ist ein wichtiges Maß zur Beurteilung von Geschäftsmodellen mit hohen Investitionskosten.
- Im Zusammenspiel mit Umsatz- und EBITDA-Wachstum ergibt sich ein umfassendes Bild zur operativen Entwicklung.
📘 Nettogewinn-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Nettogewinn-Wachstum zeigt, wie stark der Jahresüberschuss eines Unternehmens gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen oder gesunken ist – sowohl tatsächlich (TTM) als auch auf Basis von Prognosen (erwartet).
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Erwartet = (erwarteter Nettogewinn ÷ Nettogewinn Vorjahr − 1) × 100
Der erwartete Wert basiert auf Analystenschätzungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der Gewinn ist die entscheidende Ergebnisgröße für ein Unternehmen. Ein wachsender Nettogewinn deutet auf steigende Effizienz, stabile Kostenkontrolle und nachhaltige Ertragskraft hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Wachsender Nettogewinn stärkt die Bewertung, Dividendenfähigkeit und Kursfantasie.
- Stagnierender oder rückläufiger Gewinn trotz Umsatzwachstum kann auf Margendruck hinweisen.
📘 Free Cashflow-Wachstum
📈 Was ist das?
Das Free-Cashflow-Wachstum zeigt, wie sich der freie Mittelzufluss eines Unternehmens im Vergleich zum Vorjahr verändert hat – also der Betrag, der nach allen operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Free Cashflow ist der echte, verfügbare Geldzufluss. Wachstum in diesem Bereich ist ein Zeichen für finanzielle Stärke und steigende Flexibilität bei Dividenden, Rückkäufen oder Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Sinkender Free Cashflow kann auf steigende Investitionen, höhere Kosten oder stagnierende operative Erträge hindeuten.
- Besonders bei Dividendenwerten ist das FCF-Wachstum wichtig – denn Dividenden werden letztlich aus dem verfügbaren Cash gezahlt.
- Ein negativer Trend sollte genauer analysiert werden – er ist nicht zwangsläufig schlecht, aber potenziell ein Warnsignal.
📘 Bruttomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Bruttomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug der direkten Herstellungskosten (Material, Produktion) als Bruttogewinn übrig bleibt – also der „Rohgewinn“ eines Unternehmens.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Auch: Bruttomarge = Bruttogewinn ÷ Umsatz × 100
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Bruttomarge gibt Aufschluss über die Profitabilität eines Produkts oder Geschäftsmodells vor Fixkosten, Steuern und Zinsen. Sie zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen produzieren oder einkaufen kann.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Bruttomarge deutet auf starke Preissetzungsmacht und effiziente Herstellung hin.
- Sinkende Bruttomargen können auf Kostensteigerungen oder Preisdruck hindeuten.
- Besonders im Vergleich zu Wettbewerbern liefert die Bruttomarge wertvolle Einblicke in die Geschäftsqualität.
📘 EBITDA-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBITDA-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz als operativer Gewinn vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen (EBITDA) übrig bleibt. Sie misst die operative Effizienz – ohne Verzerrungen durch Finanzierung oder Buchwerte.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBITDA-Marge hilft zu verstehen, wie viel operativer Gewinn ein Unternehmen aus jedem Euro Umsatz erzielt – unabhängig von Kapitalstruktur oder steuerlichem Umfeld.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBITDA-Marge zeigt starke operative Ertragskraft – unabhängig von Bilanzierungseffekten.
- Die Marge ermöglicht gute Vergleiche zwischen Unternehmen und Branchen.
- Ein stabiler oder wachsender Wert kann auf effiziente Kostenkontrolle und Skalierbarkeit hindeuten.
📘 EBIT-Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die EBIT-Marge zeigt, wie viel Prozent des Umsatzes als operativer Gewinn nach Abschreibungen, aber vor Zinsen und Steuern übrig bleiben.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die EBIT-Marge misst die operative Ertragskraft eines Unternehmens unter Berücksichtigung der Kapitalintensität (z. B. Maschinen, Anlagen). Sie eignet sich gut zum Vergleich von Geschäftsmodellen mit unterschiedlich hohen Abschreibungen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe EBIT-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen auch nach Abschreibungen effizient arbeitet.
- Sie ist besonders relevant in kapitalintensiven Branchen.
- Langfristig stabile oder steigende Margen sind ein Zeichen wirtschaftlicher Stärke und Preissetzungsmacht.
📘 Nettomarge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Nettomarge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz am Ende als „Reingewinn“ übrig bleibt – also nach Abzug aller Kosten, Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Nettomarge gibt an, wie effizient ein Unternehmen über alle Stufen hinweg wirtschaftet. Sie zeigt, wie viel Gewinn tatsächlich je Euro Umsatz übrig bleibt.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Nettomarge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nicht nur operativ stark ist, sondern auch seine Finanzierung und Steuerbelastung im Griff hat.
- Vergleiche mit Wettbewerbern geben Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche Qualität.
- Sinkende Nettomargen trotz Umsatzwachstum können ein Warnsignal sein – etwa für steigende Kosten oder sinkende Effizienz.
📘 Free Cashflow Marge
📈 Was ist das?
Die Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, wie viel vom Umsatz nach Abzug aller operativen Ausgaben und Investitionen tatsächlich als freier Mittelzufluss übrig bleibt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Marge misst die echte Liquidität, die ein Unternehmen erwirtschaftet – unabhängig von Bilanzierungsregeln oder Abschreibungen. Sie ist besonders relevant für Dividenden, Rückkäufe und Investitionen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Free-Cashflow-Marge zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen nachhaltig liquide Mittel erwirtschaftet.
- Sie ist ein starkes Signal für finanzielle Stabilität und Ausschüttungspotenzial.
- Wichtig ist der langfristige Trend – sinkende Werte können auf steigende Investitionen oder rückläufige operative Effizienz hindeuten.
📘 Eigenkapitalquote
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalquote zeigt, wie hoch der Anteil des Eigenkapitals an der Bilanzsumme eines Unternehmens ist – also wie stark es sich aus eigenen Mitteln finanziert.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote steht für finanzielle Stabilität, Krisenfestigkeit und gute Bonität. Sie ist besonders relevant bei der Beurteilung der Verschuldung.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalquote signalisiert finanzielle Stabilität – besonders in Krisenzeiten.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf ein höheres Risiko oder eine aggressive Verschuldung hinweisen.
- Wichtig: Die Eigenkapitalquote sollte immer gemeinsam mit der Eigenkapitalrendite betrachtet werden. Nur so lässt sich beurteilen, ob ein Unternehmen nicht nur solide, sondern auch effizient wirtschaftet.
📘 Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE)
📈 Was ist das?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen mit dem Kapital seiner Aktionäre arbeitet – also wie viel Gewinn es pro Euro Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Eigenkapitalrendite ist eine zentrale Rentabilitätskennzahl. Sie hilft Anlegern zu erkennen, ob das Unternehmen eine attraktive Verzinsung auf das eingesetzte Eigenkapital erwirtschaftet.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Eine hohe Eigenkapitalrendite spricht für ein starkes, effizientes Geschäftsmodell.
- Besonders interessant ist sie bei kapitalintensiven Firmen oder solchen mit hoher Eigenkapitalquote.
- Wichtig: Ein sehr hoher ROE kann auch auf hohe Schulden hinweisen – daher sollte sie immer im Kontext mit der Eigenkapitalquote betrachtet werden.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 Was ist das?
ROCE misst die Gesamtrentabilität eines Unternehmens – also wie effizient es das eingesetzte Kapital (Eigen- und Fremdkapital) zur Gewinnerzielung nutzt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Das eingesetzte Kapital ist das gesamte betriebsnotwendige Kapital, unabhängig von der Finanzierungsquelle.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROCE eignet sich besonders gut für den Vergleich unterschiedlich finanzierter Unternehmen. Es zeigt, wie effektiv ein Unternehmen Kapital investiert – unabhängig von der Kapitalstruktur.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROCE zeigt, dass ein Unternehmen sein Kapital effizient einsetzt – unabhängig davon, ob es durch Eigen- oder Fremdkapital finanziert ist.
- Je höher der ROCE im Vergleich zu ähnlichen Unternehmen, desto mehr Wert schafft das Unternehmen mit seinem investierten Kapital.
- Besonders wichtig ist der ROCE bei Firmen mit hohen Investitionen – z. B. in Industrie, Energie oder Infrastruktur.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 Was ist das?
ROIC zeigt, wie effizient ein Unternehmen das Kapital investiert, das langfristig im operativen Geschäft gebunden ist – unabhängig davon, ob es aus Eigen- oder Fremdkapital stammt.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
- NOPAT = „Net Operating Profit After Taxes“
- Investiertes Kapital = operatives Vermögen abzüglich nicht-verzinster Schulden
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
ROIC ist eine der präzisesten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung der Kapitalrendite – besonders im Vergleich zur Eigenkapitalrendite, weil es Verzerrungen durch Schulden vermeidet. Er zeigt, ob ein Unternehmen Mehrwert für alle Kapitalgeber schafft.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher ROIC zeigt, wie gut ein Unternehmen mit dem tatsächlich investierten (betriebsnotwendigen) Kapital wirtschaftet.
- Im Unterschied zu ROCE wird nur Kapital betrachtet, das wirklich zur Finanzierung operativer Aktivitäten dient – und verzinst werden muss.
- Besonders hilfreich, um die Kapitalrendite von Unternehmen mit viel „überschüssigem“ Kapital oder zinsfreien Verbindlichkeiten realistisch zu vergleichen.
📘 Verschuldungsgrad (Leverage Ratio)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Verschuldungsgrad zeigt, wie stark ein Unternehmen durch verzinsliche Schulden (z. B. Kredite und Anleihen) im Verhältnis zum Eigenkapital finanziert ist.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Die Kennzahl hilft, das finanzielle Risiko und die Abhängigkeit von Fremdkapital zu beurteilen. Ein hoher Verschuldungsgrad kann die Eigenkapitalrendite steigern – birgt aber auch erhöhte Risiken bei Zinsanstiegen oder Liquiditätsengpässen.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Verschuldungsgrad steht für finanzielle Stabilität und Unabhängigkeit.
- Ein hoher Wert kann auf erhöhte Risiken hinweisen – insbesondere bei schwankenden Zinsen oder konjunkturellen Schwächen.
- Wichtig: Immer im Kontext zur Branche und Kapitalintensität bewerten.
📘 Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS)
📈 Was ist das?
Das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) zeigt, wie viel Gewinn auf eine einzelne Aktie entfällt – und ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen zur Bewertung von Unternehmen.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die verwässerte Aktienanzahl berücksichtigt auch potenzielle neue Aktien, etwa durch Optionen, Wandelanleihen oder andere Umtauschrechte.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
EPS bildet die Basis für viele Bewertungskennzahlen wie KGV, PEG oder Payout Ratio. Es macht den Gewinn für Aktionäre vergleichbar – unabhängig von der Unternehmensgröße.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- EPS hilft, die Profitabilität pro Aktie zu erfassen – und ist besonders wichtig im Zeitvergleich oder im Vergleich mit Analystenschätzungen.
- Steigendes EPS kann ein Zeichen für stabiles Wachstum oder Aktienrückkäufe sein.
- Wichtig: Verwende verwässertes EPS für realistische Bewertungen – besonders bei stark aktienbasierten Vergütungssystemen.
📘 Free Cashflow je Aktie (FCF je Aktie)
📈 Was ist das?
Der Free Cashflow je Aktie zeigt, wie viel freier Mittelzufluss einem Unternehmen pro Aktie zur Verfügung steht – nach Investitionen, aber vor Dividenden oder Schuldentilgung.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Der FCF je Aktie zeigt, wie viel liquide Mittel pro Aktie tatsächlich im Unternehmen verbleiben – wichtig für Dividenden, Aktienrückkäufe oder Schuldentilgung. Im Gegensatz zum Gewinn ist er schwerer manipulierbar und daher besonders aussagekräftig.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Free Cashflow je Aktie ist ein Zeichen für hohe finanzielle Flexibilität.
- Er zeigt, wie viel Kapital ein Unternehmen effektiv einsetzen oder ausschütten kann.
- Besonders relevant für dividendenstarke Unternehmen oder solche mit starker Kapitalrendite.
📘 Short Interest
📈 Was ist das?
Short Interest zeigt, wie viele Aktien eines Unternehmens aktuell leerverkauft wurden – also von Investoren geliehen und verkauft, in der Erwartung fallender Kurse.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Der Wert zeigt den Anteil der Aktien, der aktuell auf fallende Kurse spekuliert wird.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Short Interest dient als Stimmungsindikator: Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Skepsis oder negative Erwartungen gegenüber dem Unternehmen hin – kann aber auch zu einem „Short Squeeze“ führen, wenn der Kurs plötzlich steigt.
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein niedriger Short Interest deutet auf Vertrauen in das Unternehmen hin.
- Ein hoher Wert kann ein Warnsignal sein – oder eine Chance, wenn sich die Stimmung dreht.
- Besonders spannend in volatilen Märkten oder vor wichtigen Quartalszahlen.
📘 Employees
📈 Was ist das?
Die Mitarbeiteranzahl zeigt, wie viele Personen ein Unternehmen weltweit beschäftigt – ein Indikator für Größe, Struktur und Geschäftsmodell.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Sie hilft bei der Einschätzung von Skaleneffekten, Effizienz und Personalkosten. Zusammen mit Umsatz und Gewinn lassen sich Kennzahlen wie Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ableiten.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Viele Mitarbeiter bedeuten große operative Komplexität – aber auch hohes Umsatzpotenzial.
- Produktivität je Mitarbeiter ist ein wichtiger Indikator für Effizienz.
- Besonders spannend bei stark wachsenden Tech- oder Industrieunternehmen.
📘 Umsatz je Mitarbeiter
📈 Was ist das?
Der Umsatz je Mitarbeiter zeigt, wie viel Erlös ein Unternehmen durchschnittlich pro Beschäftigtem erwirtschaftet – eine Kennzahl für Effizienz und Produktivität.
🧮 Wie wird es berechnet?
Die Mitarbeiterzahl stammt in der Regel aus dem letzten verfügbaren Jahresbericht.
🏛️ Wofür ist es wichtig?
Diese Kennzahl hilft, Geschäftsmodelle zu vergleichen – insbesondere zwischen arbeitsintensiven und technologiegetriebenen Unternehmen. Ein hoher Wert deutet auf Automatisierung, Effizienz oder hohen Wertschöpfungsanteil hin.
🧮 Berechnung
🎯 Was bedeutet das für Anleger?
- Ein hoher Umsatz je Mitarbeiter spricht für ein skalierbares und margenstarkes Geschäftsmodell.
- Ein niedriger Wert kann auf arbeitsintensive Prozesse oder geringere Wertschöpfung hinweisen.
- Besonders hilfreich beim Vergleich von Tech- vs. Industrieunternehmen.
Gjensidige Forsikring Aktie Analyse
Analystenmeinungen
21 Analysten haben eine Gjensidige Forsikring Prognose abgegeben:
Analystenmeinungen
21 Analysten haben eine Gjensidige Forsikring Prognose abgegeben:
Gjensidige Forsikring Events
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Gjensidige Forsikring — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to the second quarter presentation of Gjensidige. My name is Mitra Negård, and I'm Head of Investor Relations.
We will start this session with our CEO, Geir Holmgren, who will give you highlights of the quarter; followed by our CFO, Jostein Amdal, who will run through the numbers in further detail. And we have plenty of time for questions after that. Geir, please.
Thank you, Mitra, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Page 2. We generated strong results this quarter. But before discussing them, I would like to highlight a few important developments during the quarter. First, Lisa Legallais, CEO of the Pension business, has joined the group management team. This reflects the growing strategic importance of pension within Gjensidige and ensures that this business area is represented directly in key strategic discussions and decisions.
At the same time, the product, pricing and analysis division has been integrated into the private and commercial divisions. This brings key capabilities closer to customers and operations, enabling faster decisions, stronger business ownership and better execution across the group. Second, an important highlight this quarter was the customer dividend payment from the Gjensidige Foundation. In May, NOK 3.1 billion was distributed to customers in Norway, corresponding to 11% of premiums paid last year. The customer dividend remains a unique feature in Norway and is highly valued by customers. It represents a tangible financial benefit, strengthened customer loyalty and retention. And reinforces Gjensidige's distinctive mutual heritage.
Every year since our IPO in 2010, customers have received dividend payments, underscoring Gjensidige's long-standing commitment to sharing value creation with customers. Thirdly, our pension business achieved our shared top ranking in the 2026 recognized occupational pension barometer in Norway. This recognition reflects the strength of our customer offering and confirms the strong position we have established in a rapidly growing and highly competitive market.
During the quarter, several new partnerships were established while key agreements were renewed. Broadening market access and reinforces positions in attractive customer segments.
Let us turn to Page 3 for some comments on this. We have very recently entered into a partnership with Tesla, one of the most distinctive and innovative brands in the mobility market. Tesla has a strong position in Norway with around 1 in 5 new cars sold. As the market leader in Norwegian motor insurance, it is important for Gjensidige to be well positioned with leading mobility players. The partnerships -- partnership provides us a strong platform to developing relevant insurance solutions that can further strengthen the customer offering over time.
We already have a strong position among Tesla owners. By partnering directly with Tesla, we can engage with customers earlier in the purchase process increasing our opportunities both to attract and retain customers over time. A new agreement with Privatmegleren is an important addition to our partner portfolio. Together with our existing real estate partnerships, it means that we now have a market reach of approximately 45% of private real estate transactions in Norway. We have also entered into a new partnership with Huseierne, a nationwide homeowner association representing around 300,000 members. In addition, we renewed our long-standing partnership with Tekna, representing more than 118,000 engineers and technology professionals in Norway.
These partnerships strengthen our ability to reach attractive customer groups, create new business opportunities and support profitable growth over time.
So let's turn to Page 4. We generated a profit after tax of NOK 2.122 billion in the second quarter. This included the announced negative impact from the Danish Supreme Court ruling of workers' compensation, which amounted to NOK 419 million, net of reserve releases. Adjusted for this, profit after tax was up year-on-year, driven by a strong insurance service result.
Revenue growth continues to be strong at 9.3% in the quarter. We are well positioned for further growth, supported by the ongoing strengthening of the distribution capacity in Denmark, high market growth and improved distribution in pension and further opportunities from partner agreements and housing initiatives in Norway. In commercial, we will pursue various pockets of profitable growth, and Sweden already has good volume growth.
We saw significant improvement in profitability this quarter. With the underlying frequency loss ratio down 4 percentage points. The cost ratio remained at a very competitive level of 11.7% and profit from our pension business and the financial results for general insurance also contributed to a very strong return on equity of 33.3%. The solvency ratio was robust at 189%.
Turning to Page 5 for more details. Adjusted for the impact from the Danish quarter ruling, the insurance service result was NOK 2.794 billion and the combined ratio was 75.2%. I'm very pleased with this very result, thanks to continued revenue growth, high operational efficiency and cost discipline. In terms of the consequences of the Danish court ruling, while some uncertainty remains around how many claims may ultimately be reopened and how the ruling will be applied in practice. The estimate reflects the current best -- our current best assessment. Danish workers' compensation remains an attractive line of business. At the same time, such developments will naturally be reflected in our pricing going forward.
The principle is straightforward. Premiums must reflect the underlying risk and we have both the tools and the discipline to ensure that they do.
The financial result in general insurance business was NOK 786 million this quarter, reflecting positive returns from fixed income instruments and equities. Our pension business delivered a pretax profit of NOK 245 million, adjusted for the change in CSM. This was supported by higher net income from finance and continued growth in the unit-linked business. The insurance service result was adjusted for CSM was lower this quarter, mainly due to lower profitability for the child pension product.
Over to Page 6. Insurance revenue increased by 9.3% this quarter driven by effective price increases across all segments and helped by some volume growth in private. Growth was driven by both Norway and Denmark primarily through price increases with additional contribution from higher volumes in Norway. In commercial, revenues also increased across Norway and Denmark, reflecting price increases for all main products. Volume decreased mainly due to the consistent prioritization of profitability over growth as well as the termination of agreements with the fire mutuals in Norway. Our focus remains on writing the right business at the right price. If that means accepting lower volumes in certain parts of the portfolio, that is a trade-off we are comfortable with as profitability remains the priority.
In Sweden, growth was supported by both price increases and higher volumes. The pricing measures we have already implemented has strengthened profitability and give us more flexibility in how we manage pricing going forward. Differentiated pricing will continue to be important as we work to further improve portfolio quality. Price increases will be broadly aligned with expected decreases in claims cost while selected products and customer segments will increase above this level.
So moving to Page 7. I will say a few words about how this strategic focus has contributed to building a healthier commercial portfolio. Over the past years, our commercial portfolio in Norway has delivered strong growth, supported by significant price increases and a clear focus on profitability. We have achieved this growth while maintaining strict underwriting discipline. As shown on this slide, portfolio quality has improved, particularly among SME customers, but also for larger corporate customers. Our strong analytical capabilities, disciplined pricing and targeted execution have enabled us to retain more profitable customers while reducing exposure to customers with weaker profitability.
This demonstrates the value of the tools, data and underwriting expertise developed over many, many years. As well as our ability to steer activities effectively. Our in-house distribution capacity provides us with an important advantage in executing these measures. The strong combination of high distribution efficiency, leading pricing capabilities and solid customer retention has increased our market share by 0.9 percentage points since 2021.
On to Page 8. Progress on our operational targets is important as these are key enablers for delivering on our financial targets. Retention in Norway remained high at 90%, although it was slightly down from last year. This was mainly due to the termination of the agreement with the fire mutuals and in affected regions efforts are now focused on retaining customers and rebuilding volumes through our existing distribution channels and targeted commercial initiatives.
In Denmark, retention remained stable at 87%. We also continue to make good progress on automation and digitalization. The digital distribution index improved further mainly driven by strong growth in digital sales in private. Distribution efficiency in private also increased. Commercial showed a slight improvement in distribution efficiency. As straight-through processing in Norway was at 41%.
Over to Page 9. Sustainability remains an important strategic priority for Gjensidige and I'm pleased with the progress achieved during the quarter. We continue to make tangible advances across several key areas while maintaining a clear focus on ambitious targets set for 2030. While there is still work to be done, the results achieved so far demonstrate that our efforts are having an impact. The external recognition and ratings, we have received, provide valuable confirmation that we are moving on the right direction. And they serve as a strong motivation to continue strengthening of our contribution to sustainable development.
So with that, I will leave the word to Jostein to present the second quarter results in more detail.
Thank you, Geir, and good morning, everybody. I'll start on Page 10. We delivered a profit before tax of NOK 2.79 billion in the second quarter with negative impacts from workers' compensation in Denmark and lower results from investments. The general insurance service result adjusted for this impact, was up almost NOK 600 million. The pension result was broadly in line with last year with higher net income from finance and unit-linked results and a lower insurance service result. Net finance was negatively impacted by revaluations of real estate, partly offset by higher lending yield and lower credit spreads. The result from other items was lower compared to the second quarter last year, mainly due to profit transfers from net repairs insurance and higher other expenses from general insurance.
Higher results from Gjensidige Mobility Group, lower interest on subordinated loans and decrease in amortization of intangible assets contributed positively.
Turning over to Page 11 to comment on the segments, starting with private. Private Norway delivered another strong quarter with the insurance services result up NOK 188 million from the second quarter last year. The improvement was due to continued revenue growth and a 1.4 percentage point improvement in the underlying frequency loss ratio, driven by motor. Claims inflation has been broadly in line with our expectations. The underlying drivers are still present, but we now have greater confidence in our expected range of 4% to 7% for motor and 4% to 6% for property in Norway. We continue to see somewhat lower inflationary pressure in Denmark and Sweden than in Norway.
And as Geir mentioned, with strong profitability restored, pricing will be in line with the expected claims cost development differentiated by customer and product and for selected products and customer segments above expected claims cost.
Turning to our private portfolio in Denmark. Performance continued to improve this quarter. The insurance services result reached NOK 74 million, up NOK 71 million from the second quarter last year, driven primarily by an improved margin. The underlying frequency loss ratio improved by 8.7 percentage points, supported by pricing measures in property and motor. The cost ratio was reduced by 1.9 percentage points compared with the second quarter last year. Implemented cost efficiency measures together with cost discipline are improving efficiency in our Danish private business.
Moving on to Page 12, comments on the performance of our commercial portfolios. The insurance services result in Norway increased significantly by NOK 501 million from the second quarter last year, mainly driven by lower large losses and improved margin and revenue growth. The underlying frequency loss ratio improved by 4.2 percentage points, driven by all main products. The cost ratio was 8.1%. And the insurance service results in Denmark also improved this quarter, primarily driven by higher profitability, higher runoff gains and revenue growth also contributed positively. The underlying loss ratio improved by 3.5 percentage points reflecting effective pricing measures across all main products. The cost ratio was 11.7%. We maintain a strong focus on cost efficiency in both Norway and Denmark.
Turning over to Page 13. Our Swedish business reported a NOK 56 million decrease in the insurance service results compared with the second quarter last year, mainly due to runoff losses. Revenue growth remained solid. The underlying frequency loss ratio increased by 1.3 percentage points, mainly driven by property and motor in the private portfolio as well as the higher share of leisure boat insurance. The increase in the underlying frequency loss ratio should be seen in the context of normal inherent volatility in general insurance and the seasonality in leisure boat insurance rather than a negative trend.
We are very pleased with our partnership with Svenska Sjö, providing us with efficient access to attractive customer groups and high-quality leads. The cost ratio improved by 1 percentage point supported by higher insurance revenue and continued cost efficiency measures.
Let's now turn to Page 14 for comments on our pension business, which delivered a pretax profit adjusted for changes in CSM of NOK 245 million. This was NOK 40 million lower than the same quarter last year. Net income from our unit-linked business increased slightly. This reflected the higher management income driven by growth in assets under management. Higher administration fees also contributed positively supported by growth in a number of occupational pension members and implemented price increases. This was partly offset by higher expenses, mainly related to increased staffing to support higher business volumes as well as higher IT costs.
Net finance income increased, reflecting running yield and a slight decrease in interest rates. The insurance service sold adjusted for the CSM was lower, mainly due to weaker performance in the child pension product. We have taken measures to improve profitability that will yield results over time, including pricing actions and changes in terms and conditions.
Let's now turn to the investment portfolio on Page 15. The results for the quarter reflected positive returns from both fixed income instruments and equities. This was supported by a high running yield and lower credit spreads. The real estate portfolio had a negative return driven by negative other adjustments in line with the general market and high yield requirements.
The portfolio consists of 6 high-quality properties in Oslo Central Business District and is more or less fully rented with long leases and solid tenants. The match portfolio generated return of 0.6% net of insurance finance, whereas the free portfolio delivered 0.5%. Overall, portfolio risk remained low. We continue to maintain a well-balanced asset allocation with a clear focus on high credit quality. This gives us confidence that the investment strategy remains well positioned to withstand further market turbulence.
Over to Page 16. The group's solvency ratio remained strong at 189% at the end of the second quarter. Solvency II operating earnings contributed positively to eligible own funds together with returns from the free portfolio. As usual, this was partly offset by the formulaic like dividend, which reduced own funds by 80% of profit after tax.
The redemption of the Tier 1 loan in April reduced eligible own funds by NOK 713 million. At the same time, a higher share of Tier 2 capital was eligible this quarter. We still hold NOK 200 million in Tier 2 funds that are not currently included in eligible own funds, but we expect these to be included over time. Capital requirement increased during the quarter driven by growth. A significant part of the increase came from continued growth in the unit-linked business with higher lapse risk and market risk. The positive impact from this growth is reflected in own funds.
In addition, higher capital requirements for equities under a standard formula contributed to increased market risk in the life insurance business. Overall, this leaves us with a strong capital position, providing continued flexibility to support profitable growth and shareholder distributions.
And with that, I hand the word back to Geir. Thank you.
Thank you, Jostein. To summarize on Page 17. Overall, we are very pleased with the strong performance this quarter. At the same time, it is important to recognize that the general insurance is inherently volatile, and that is the volatility. And that this volatility has been in our favor during the first half of the year. Our strategic approach remains centered on the 4 priorities: customer empathy, profitable growth, resilience and disciplined capital management. Together, these priorities support solid financial results and long-term value creation for customers and stakeholders. We are well positioned for further growth, and we will continue to focus on cost efficiency and profitability. Based on the progress made so far, we remain confident in reaching the financial targets for 2026. We also see a strong foundation for continuing this positive development in the years ahead.
And with that, we'll now open the Q&A session.
All right. We will now continue with our Q&A session.
[Operator Instructions]
So we will start first with the question we have received in our webcast player. It's from Qian Lu in UBS. Qian asks, the underlying frequency loss ratio improved by around 4 points year-on-year despite a strong comparative base. How much of this reflects continued favorable claims trends versus pricing and underwriting actions? And should we view the Q2 level as a sustainable run rate for the summer quarters going forward?
I can start on that one. We have highlighted that from quarter-to-quarter, there is some volatility in also the underlying frequency loss ratio and that we have seen a favorable claims environment over the first 2 quarters of 2026. Having said that, the improvement is, to a large extent, a result of the discipline we have in our pricing, where we are focused on profitability ahead of growth. And we've seen that -- we got the price increases through more than the claims development has actually pointed. So it's been a combination of disciplined pricing actions and some volatility around the claims picture.
Okay. Moving on to Qian's second question. Gross written product growth in private slowed to 5.6% year-on-year in Q2 from 9% in Q1. Is that primarily a reflection of moderating price increases, or are there any volume or portfolio mix effects to consider as well? And could you provide some color on current pricing versus claims inflation trends across your key markets and major lines of business.
Yes, I'll start on the first part of that question on the written premium that we have seen. And as was mentioned by Geir under the presentation in the first half of this year, we have seen some churn due to the termination of the agreements with 7 of the 8 fire mutuals. So that's part of the explanation and this not -- this, of course, will not be repeated. So this is a temporary effect in 2026. But if we look forward there, I think there is a continuous strong growth in Private Norway. It is strong and will continue so. We have introduced today important new partnerships and the renewal of one very important one with Tekna -- and we are taking steps to strengthen our distribution efficiency and distribution capacity. In private in Denmark. So it's -- if you look at kind of all these items together, I think there's reason for optimism about future growth, both in written and earned premium for the private segment.
I'll read the second question in writing here before we move over to the Teams participants. The second question is from Roy Tilley in Arctic and he asks, can you say a bit more about the Tesla agreement? Is this the same agreement that Tryg Enter currently has?
The agreement with Tesla was actually signed just before the weekend. I don't know the terms and conditions regarding the Tryg agreement, but we are now Tesla's main and core partner in Norway going forward. And as already mentioned in the presentation, we do have a quite good market share when it comes to insurance regarding the Teslas on Norwegian roads. But now we are having a position where we actually get in touch with the customer from day 1. And this is a very good starting point, maintaining good customer relationship and developing further this relationship. And also what we put down this kind of agreement as a signal of the strong position we have within motor insurance with another good agreement, which is very supportive of future growth within motor insurance.
Thank you. All right. We'll move to the participants in Teams. And the first question is from Thomas Svendsen in SEB. We are now opening your line.
2. Question Answer
So yes, to this idea of introducing VAT on insurance premiums, that has been, again, launched here in Norway. So how much do you think your net premiums or price to the clients has to be increased to sort of get breakeven on the profitability level, also considering that your costs or a lot of your costs also will be VAT deductible and also on an extension to this, do you think this possible increased tax burden will be shared between you and your clients? Or should we expect the clients to pay all the net tax increase here if it happens?
Well, as you know, this is committee set down by the authorities to evaluate a broad set of taxes and they have come up with, amongst others, adjustments to now start investigating or restart investigation of introducing VAT for financial products in Norway. There is quite some way before this could be a reality. Highly uncertain, I would say. But for us, a substitution of the current finance tax, which is an increased employer tax and tax rate for the company with the VAT isn't necessarily so bad. The numbers we have is from this committee that's been set down, which said that they look at increasing tax revenues by NOK 2 billion to NOK 3 billion for the whole sector. If that is correct, then this needs to be captured somehow in our pricing.
And really, the -- as usual, the kind of the market situation, we will determine the kind of who bears the burden of certain increased taxation. And as you correctly point out, this also means that we can subtract more of our incoming VAT.
So the calculation is actually quite complex. And it's also a bit of a complex VAT to introduce, and that's the reason why very few countries in the world actually have this VAT on financial services or non-life insurance in general.
Just to add a few comments. This is still a proposal to do the assessment. So this is something we will definitely support with the information and analysis from our side as well throughout the process. But when it comes to actually from a more structural view on this, it could be a benefit to actually change the existing tax and financial activity going back to more normal tax level on employees' tax and company tax as we see in other parts of the Norwegian business as well. This could be helpful. So -- but any kind of VAT on non-life insurance, we'll have probably a negative impact on the premium level for customers as well. So this is the kind of total mix of the consideration.
Okay. Could I have a second question quickly. Last quarter, you talked about increased competition on accident and health insurance products. Anything new on that?
Nothing new, but we are still in a position where we prioritize profitability before volume growth in Commercial segment. In this presentation, we had also a slide where we're describing the kind of activities we do to improve the quality and the performance of our commercial portfolio within insurance in Norway. We see that over time, we have managed to improve underlying frequency loss ratio, and that's due to the kind of expertise we are using to do the right risk assessment pricing and to make sure that customers that leaves us are the customers with weaker profitability. So that's the kind of ongoing work we are doing with this portfolio.
And doing the right thing on pricing. We're also in a position where we actually is still a very attractive provider for customers with the right risk level and where the pricing is good.
Great. Moving on to the next question from Vash Gosalia in Goldman Sachs.
Thanks, everyone. Maybe one or two questions from my side, and it's a little bit of a follow-up from Qian's question on the GWP. So maybe just shifting your attention to commercial where you've shown a growth of 3.3%. Could you give us one, a sense of what's happening in -- within the 3.3% how much is pricing versus how much is volume in the sense? Have you given up some business just because it's too competitive or pricing is not there? So that's the first one. And maybe just in connection to that, could you give us a general sense of competition across the commercial space.
And then the second one in Sweden, there was obviously -- it was impacted by runoff results. Could you just give us a sense of what is within those runoff results? Is it more of an industry trend? Or is it a one-off?
Okay. When it comes to what's happening within Commercial, Commercial Norway and Denmark. As we have told, what we see on the volume side is -- we terminated the agreements with the fire mutuals in Norway by start of the year. This has a negative impact during the first half year when it comes to volume growth. We are still happy with the total result of that kind of termination. It brings down the cost level. It is very positive that we have a direct relationship with the customers. And we see that we maintained to continue with our large proportion of total kind of total customer portfolio earlier regarded as a part of the fire mutual commercial customers. But kind of one-off short-term negative impact when it comes to volume growth.
If you look at the total growth we see in Commercial segment, it's driven by price increases, and that's a result of how we have ran this business for the last quarters and prioritizing profitability before growth has been important for Gjensidige as well. As earlier mentioned and as earlier, part of our strategy as well.
Sorry, can I just have a quick clarification that bit. So it seems like the Fire Mutual was your explanation for the private segment as well, but it's also the explanation for commercial. I just wanted to understand, does it like sit across both the groups or because I believe you answering Qian's question on private, but I'm just trying to understand what's happening in commercial. Sorry, if I have gotten that mixed up.
Yes. The agreements with the fire Mutuals are both in Private and Commercial segment in Norway, and they are more specific down to some regions in Norway. We still have one agreement with the largest fire mutual, and this is going very well. They are doing well in the business. They are running the business efficiently, and we have a very good kind of cooperation. If you look at what's happening with the termination-- after the termination of the 8 agreements with the fire mutuals, in private and commercial, we see that we are -- tend to be a little bit lucky within private segment compared to commercial when it comes to proportional customers that we have maintained. But still, in total, we are very satisfied with the total kind of success when it comes to keeping the customers. But we are losing some customers and that has a short-term hit on the volume growth as well, both in private and commercial.
Understood. And then if you could just help me with the runoff results in Sweden, please?
Yes. It's specifically related to certain claims. There is no trend. You should read into that negative development in the second quarter. If we look at the year-to-date figures, it's just slightly positive. We still believe we have very sufficient reserves also in Sweden.
All right. The next question is from Ulrik Zürcher in Nordea.
I was just wondering if you could get more color on the drop in the underlying claims frequency ratio in commercial, especially in Norway, because it seems like it's arguments for the trend is almost that is dropping almost 10 percentage points between the winter quarters and the summer quarters, if you look at many years now, is like motor is clearly one, but what are the other reasons? And what is some sort of like normalized difference between summer and winter quarter in commercial?
I mean, it's a bit of a repeat on the first question from Qian that there is some volatility and the more you kind of narrow it down to a specific part or segment like commercial in Norway, a large volatility by -- just by definition. And so there is some in a way, lock in a way in this, but there is also a trend due to long-term pricing above the claims development there that has improved this underlying margin measure for many years really. The difference between summer and winter quarter or Q1 versus Q2 at the group level has been typically, it varies from year to year with a 10-year perspective.
I think you look at 2 to 4 percentage points at the group level. But for Commercial Norway specifically, I don't really have the number here. I haven't looked at that.
But it's a huge volatility in property as well in addition to motor?
Yes, property would typically be volatile, but more on the overall loss ratio because there are more large losses in property than a motor in commercial. So -- but there is some volatility also in our definition of large losses is, of course, about NOK 10 million, but there is a volatility in the number and size of claims also below NOK 10 million. That's the way it is really.
But if I understand, okay, it's group level, but you would expect more 2 to 4 percentage point volatility then almost 10 percentage points even in Commercial Norway.
That's seasonality, I tried to describe possible volatility.
Yes, yes, okay. But it is 2 to 4 percentage point seasonality in Commercial Norway as well roughly.
I answered it as the group and then you decide for yourself what you don't believe, but I don't have the figure for Commercial Norway.
All right. The next question is from Vinit Malhotra in Mediobanca.
My first question is, again, back on Tesla. And I'm just curious that is Tesla now no longer selling their own captive insurance in Norway? Or are you also competing with that? And what does this say to the market about your view on EVs and motor insurance? Is it a sign -- I mean I read it as a sign of confidence from your end to make this agreement. So I'm just curious a little bit more about what's happening on Tesla base. Yes. And my questions on underlying have been addressed, so I'll let it be.
Tesla has had an agreement with Tryg. So it's not been a captive. And so we've kind of taken over that distribution arrangement, but with -- yes, after a negotiation with us. So as Geir mentioned, there's wider perspective on your selling insurance is a cooperation with Tesla to the benefit of both our customers and Tesla owners. As we've talked about for, I think, a longer time, our profitability expectations around the EVs are the same as for fossil fuel cars as long as we have enough data, we are able to price these as precisely as we have for any other fossil fuel cars really. It doesn't really have a difference there. Claims picture may be a bit different, but our data to price it are just as good for EVs now.
And one more follow-up, please, the fire mutuals you talked about. Is there something else you can say about why this kind of an impact or change from your end on these kind of partnerships?
When it comes to the fire mutual that was kind of assessment we did throughout last year that the main reasons for doing kind of such agreements and to decide on whether we should terminate or not. Also regarding the cost efficiency and which have an impact on our distribution efficiency and profitability within comparing different types of distribution channels and agreements. And the second one is regarding how we actually, over time, work with the customers in our view, the most proper way and put ourselves in a position where we could develop the customer relationship. And make values over time. So when we didn't actually succeed with these terms when negotiating with the fire mutuals, it was a clear solution that we should terminate the agreements.
And if I can just follow up, so...
And the consequence of terminating is that now we are seeing that we are -- even though we see a negative impact on the volume, which is kind of a one-off thing in -- throughout 2026. We see that we are very satisfied with the kind of success level when it comes to how many customers we are keeping after termination. And now we're bringing down the improved distribution efficiency regarding these customers, and we are developing the customer relationship selling more products and improving the total profitability for these customers and for Gjensidige.
And last, if I may, please, just a follow-up of understanding. The underlying in Norway private was around 1.4 points better. Commercial was 3.5 points, roughly, better. And the difference is coming more because commercial has this active portfolio effect, which you mentioned, which is steering customers. Is that good summary of why the difference between these 2 lines. So if you just add anything there or correct me, please.
I think it's maybe not that useful to compare the change for Private Norway and Commercial Norway as such. I mean they are 2 separate lives there in terms of customer segments and so on. So we try to prune the portfolios and optimize on the pricing decisions for each one of them very separately and extremely satisfied with the development in both segments in terms of the underlying improvement, but there is no -- it's not direct relates with the improvements in those 2 segments, I would say, look at them separately.
The risk is different. The product mix is different comparing these 2 segments. And within private, we do use tariffs in commercial it's a combination of tariffs for the smaller customers, and then we have more -- tends to be more individual underwriting for the medium-sized and large customers. So I think there are many reasons to point out to where there are some differences when it comes to frequency loss ratios.
All right. Then next and it looks like the last question comes from Nimrat Kaur in Bank of America.
Okay. Nimrat, we'll give you just another moment. And if not, we will move on.
All right. It doesn't seem there are any further questions, so we will round off here. We will be participating in investor conferences and broker organized investor meetings in August and September. Please see our financial calendar on our website for more details. Thank you for your attention today, and have a great summer.
Thank you.
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Gjensidige Forsikring — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Gjensidige Forsikring — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Starkes Q2: Hohe Profitabilität, 9,3% Umsatzwachstum, aber Belastung durch dänisches Gerichtsurteil und andauernde Volatilität im Schadenverlauf.
📊 Quartal auf einen Blick
- Umsatzwachstum: 9,3% YoY
- Profit nach Steuern: NOK 2,122 Mrd. (inkl. NOK 419 Mio. Belastung aus dänischem Urteil)
- Versicherungsserviceergebnis: NOK 2,794 Mrd. (adjustiert)
- Combined Ratio: 75,2% (adjustiert)
- Eigenkapitalrendite: 33,3%; Solvenzquote: 189%
🎯 Was das Management sagt
- Distribution: Ausbau von Partnernetzwerk (u.a. Tesla, Privatmegleren, Huseierne, Tekna) zur Marktausweitung und besseren Kundenzugängen.
- Operative Neuorganisation: Produkt-, Pricing- und Analysefunktionen in Private/Commercial integriert, um Entscheidungen zu beschleunigen und Ownership zu stärken.
- Profitabilität vor Wachstum: Fokus auf renditestarke Segmente; Kündigung von Vereinbarungen mit Feuerwehren zugunsten direkter Kundenbeziehungen und höherer Effizienz.
🔭 Ausblick & Guidance
- Ziel 2026: Management bleibt zuversichtlich, die 2026-Finanzziele zu erreichen; Priorität auf Kosten- und Margendisziplin.
- Preis- vs. Kostenentwicklung: Preise sollen die erwartete Schadeninflation widerspiegeln; erwartete Schadeninflation Norwegen: Motor 4–7%, Property 4–6%.
- Risiken: Dänisches Arbeiterunfall-Urteil bleibt unsicher (aktuelle Nettoauswirkung NOK 419 Mio.); steuerpolitische Risiken (Diskussion über Mehrwertsteuer auf Versicherungsprämien) können Prämien und Marktallokation beeinflussen.
❓ Fragen der Analysten
- Treiber der Margin-Verbesserung: Management verweist auf Kombination aus diszipliniertem Pricing/Underwriting und temporär günstiger Schadenentwicklung (Volatilität bleibt hoch).
- Wachstumseinbruch GWP: Verlangsamung der gebuchten Prämien teils Folge der Kündigung von Verträgen mit Feuerwehren; Management sieht dies als einmaligen Effekt und erwartet Erholung durch Partnerinitiativen.
- Partnerschaft Tesla & Sweden: Tesla-Deal ersetzt vorherige Vereinbarung mit Tryg; Ziel: frühere Kundenansprache und bessere Retention. Runoff-Verluste in Schweden wurden als einzelne Themen beschrieben, keine systemische Schwäche.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implikationen: Gjensidige zeigt hohe Rentabilität und starke Kapitalposition trotz eines einmaligen dänischen Effekts; Strategie setzt klar auf Pricing-Disziplin, Partnerschaften und Direktvertrieb. Kurzfristig bleiben Schadenvolatilität und regulatorische/steuerliche Unsicherheiten Beobachtungspunkte für Anleger.
Gjensidige Forsikring — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to the first quarter presentation for Gjensidige. My name is Mitra Negård and I'm Head of Investor Relations. We will start this session with our CEO, Geir Holmgren, who will give you the highlights of the quarter, followed by our CFO, Jostein Amdal, who will run through the numbers in further detail. And we have plenty of time for a Q&A after that. Geir, please.
Thank you, Mitra, and good morning, everyone. I will start with the Danish Supreme Court ruling on the workers compensation scheme announced yesterday, reducing the compensation threshold. This ruling marks a significant change in the Danish authorities practice regarding workers' compensation. The Danish Insurance Association expected the Danish government to assume full responsibility for the industry's losses. At this stage, the financial impact remains highly uncertain.
Based on our initial assessment, we estimate that ruling could result in additional claims cost in the range of around DKK 500 million to DKK 800 million for Gjensidige. It is key to point out that our reserves will, to a certain extent, absorb such risks. As announced yesterday, we will undertake a thorough review of the ruling and carry out the necessary analysis before providing a reliable estimate of the financial impact. Any related accounting effects will be recognized in the second quarter of '26. I would like to point out that we do not expect a regular dividend for the 2026 accounting year to be affected by this matter, and we will still expect to deliver on the financial targets for 2026.
Turning to Page 3. We generated strong insurance results this quarter, driven by efficient operation, disciplined pricing and a consistent focus on serving our customers. The continued loyalty we experienced demonstrates the value and significance of our services. More than 40,000 customers received travel assistance this quarter including many affected by the conflict in the Middle East. We responded swiftly to the situation, extended the coverage and assisted our customers with everything from evacuation and changes to travel plans to accommodation and safe return home.
In February, we presented our strategy and ambitions at our Capital Markets Day, setting a clear path for future growth. As part of our focus on damage prevention, we expanded our sensor-based alarm services from homes to cabins, further strengthening our support for customers. The rollout of the sensor-based alarm services in homes has already proven highly successful, resulting in reduced incidence and greater peace of mind for our customers. Building on this strong foundation, we are confident that these initiatives will deepen our customer relationships and drive long-term loyalty.
We remain focused on delivering attractive returns to shareholders. The Board's proposed dividend was approved at our Annual General Meeting in March, resulting in a payout of NOK 7.25 billion to shareholders earlier this month.
So let's turn to Page 4. This quarter, we achieved a profit after tax of NOK 1.548 billion. Our strong general insurance service results reflect a continued robust growth momentum and a notable improvement in margins. The results from our pension business were negatively affected by a recalculation of reserves in the IFRS 17 accounts. It is also important to emphasize that this did not impact the solvency position. The results were also impacted by a lower net finance income. The performance of our investment portfolios was very satisfactory, especially given the significant market turmoil. Additionally, our return on equity of 27.7% is very strong, and we maintain a solid solvency position of 195%.
Turning to Page 5. I'm very pleased with the significant increase in the insurance service result this quarter, amounting to NOK 2.288 billion, lower large losses were part of the explanation, but we also saw a notable contribution from revenue growth and an improved margin, achieving a combined ratio of 79.2% in a winter quarter is exceptional and well below our annual target of 82%. This strong result was driven not only by few large losses but also by the implementation of ongoing pricing measures. Disciplined cost control and favorable weather conditions for motor insurance in Norway also contributed positively. And I'm especially pleased that the underlying frequency loss ratio declined by 3 percentage points, while our commitment to cost discipline further reduced our cost ratio to 11.7%.
Our investment portfolio delivered our financial result of NOK 226 million this quarter, reflecting positive returns from both fixed income instruments and real estate. The pension segment recorded a pretax loss of NOK 298 million, adjusted for CSM, reflecting the recalculation of reserves within the insurance portfolio and reduced net finance income. This was partly offset by the unit linked business, which continued its strong performance, thanks to growth in occupational pension memberships and rise in assets under management compared with the first quarter last year.
So over to Page 6. Group Insurance revenues increased by 10.6% in this quarter in local currency. I'm very pleased with our strong growth momentum continuing into the first quarter, which demonstrates our robust position and unwavering focus on profitability. Our disciplined pricing approach across all segments has been successfully implemented, strengthening our profitability and supporting our overall growth strategy. We remain committed to maintaining our pricing at least in line with the anticipated increase in claims cost, ensuring that our premiums continue to reflect underlying risk and market trends. This ongoing focus on pricing not only safeguards our margins, but also enable us to proactively respond to evolving claims patterns and external factors.
Growth in our Private segment was driven by both Norway and Denmark, primarily through price increases, complemented by higher volumes across the main product lines. The Commercial segment also saw growth in both Norway and Denmark, reflecting price increases across all key products. As in recent quarters, growth in certain accident insurance products remains subdued, reflecting our consistent prioritization of profitability over growth. Sweden also demonstrated growth, although at a somewhat lower pace driven by price adjustments across all main products and higher volumes. Nevertheless, the increase in gross written premium reflects a solid growth trajectory.
So over to Page 7. Improvement in operational targets is important to support the delivery of strategic priorities, and you see these financial targets. The 2028 operational targets for the group were announced at our Capital Markets Day in February this year. Retention rates remain a key driver of cost efficiency. Retention rates in Norway held firm at 91%, a very strong level, especially considering the necessary and significant price increases we have put through it. Retention in Denmark rose to 87% driven by a positive underlying development and an improved reporting structure for the commercial portfolio.
Our continued focus on automation and digitization is accelerating operational progress. The quarter saw robust growth in digital sales and distribution efficiency is improving across both private and commercial segments. So thanks to automation initiatives, 42% of claims in Norway are now handled as straight-through processing. This not only greatly reduces manual work and advances our broader cost efficiency, but also speed of processing types, enhancing customer satisfaction.
Over to Page 8. I'm encouraged by the strong progress we continue to make on our sustainability agenda and by our unwavering commitment to developing new initiatives that reinforces our contribution to sustainable development. As highlighted on this slide, and at our Capital Markets Day in February, we have set ambitious long-term goals through 2030 and our organization remains focused on delivering these outcomes. The external recognitions and ratings we have received are a testament to our achievements and serve as a powerful motivator for us to sustain and further elevate our efforts in this critical area.
So with that, I will leave Jostein Amdal to present the first quarter results in more detail.
Thank you, Geir, and good morning, everybody. I will start on Page 9. We delivered a profit before tax of NOK 2.055 billion in the first quarter, with a significant increase compared with the first quarter last year being driven by a higher insurance service result. The Pension segment contributed negatively to the overall results, posting a loss this quarter, primarily due to a recalculation of reserves in the IFRS 17 accounts and reduced net financial income. Net financial results from our investment portfolios were lower this quarter, mainly due to a larger increase in interest rates compared with the same quarter last year. The contribution from other items was lower mainly due to the transfer of profits from Natural Perils insurance and higher amortization. This was partly offset by a NOK 106 million provision reversal after the Danish Supreme Court ruling in February. Higher results from Gjensidige Mobility Group also contributed positively.
Turning over to Page 10 to comment on the segments, starting with Private. I'm very pleased with the strong development in Private Norway this quarter. The Insurance service result increased by NOK 258 million driven by a significant margin improvement and continued strong growth in revenue. The underlying frequency loss ratio improved by 3.5 percentage points, reflecting both effective pricing measures and favorable driving conditions in Norway this winter, benefiting profitability for motor.
Staying ahead of claims inflation through proactive pricing is one of the most important things we do in this business. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty has increased concerns around inflationary pressures and potential supply chain disruptions. We are monitoring developments closely and remain committed to ensuring that our pricing models continues to reflect updated assumptions. Our latest estimates on repair cost increases in Norway are 4% to 7% for motor and 4% to 6% for Property. Inflationary pressure remains somewhat lower in Denmark and Sweden as has been the case for some time.
Turning to our private portfolio in Denmark. I'm pleased to report a marked improvement this quarter. The insurance service result reached NOK 74 million, a substantial improvement from a loss of NOK 57 million in the same period of last year. This positive development was largely driven by the successful implementation of targeted pricing initiatives and the reduction in midsized claims with property and motor insurance showing higher profitability. We remain firmly committed to enhancing cost efficiency in Denmark, and it is encouraging to see these efforts beginning to deliver tangible results.
Moving on to Page 11 for comments on the performance of our commercial portfolios. The insurance service result in Norway remained stable this quarter. We achieved higher revenues due to effective pricing measures and benefited from lower large losses. It is also very encouraging that we managed to further reduce our already low cost ratio. This was offset by lower runoff gains and a slight decline in underlying profitability in property and liability insurance. Although other product areas such as motor showed increased profitability.
We'll continue to prioritize profitable growth and maintain high operational efficiency. Our insurance service result in Denmark improved markedly this quarter primarily due to a better underlying frequency loss ratio and fewer large losses. Profitability from most product lines increased mainly as a result of effective pricing measures. We remain committed to further advancing cost efficiency and ensuring sustainable growth across our Danish portfolio.
Turning over to Page 12. Our Swedish business continues to perform well overall. Although this quarter, we experienced reduced underlying profitability in Commercial Motor, Private Property and Payment Protection insurance. The insurance service result was supported by a higher run-off gains, but was negatively impacted by a higher underlying frequency loss ratio and an increase in large losses. We continue to focus on growth and profitability by implementing efficiency measures, investing in technology and optimizing costs. In addition, we are broadening our partner collaborations most recently by entering a partnership with [ Sveland ] for pet insurance. We're also continuing to develop and improve our claims processes, leveraging artificial intelligence for personal injury assessments a newly launched initiative aimed at enhancing efficiency and accuracy in claims handling.
Let's turn to Page 13 for comments on our Pension business. This segment generated a pretax loss of NOK 298 million after adjustment for the contractual service margin. Of this total, NOK 255 million relates to a recalculation of reserves in our IFRS 17 accounting negatively impacting the insurance service result, whereas a result under IFRS 4 remained unaffected. Excluding this and nonrecurring effects in the first quarter of 2025, the insurance service result declined by NOK 21 million, largely attributable to claims associated with the [indiscernible] pension product.
It is important to note that the reserve strength did not have an impact on our solvency position. The result for the quarter was also negatively affected by net finance income following the sharp increase in interest rates during the quarter. The negative return on assets, unwinding and higher profit sharing with customers as interest rates were above guaranteed levels more than offset the decrease in insurance liabilities caused by the higher interest rates.
On a positive note, net income from our unit-linked business continued to improve, underpinned by price adjustments as well as growth in occupational pension members and assets under management compared to the same period last year. Our pension business not only supports our insurance operations, it unlocks attractive opportunities for cross-selling and synergies throughout the company. We are confident that we will continue to generate substantial value across our organization over time.
Let's now turn our attention to the investment portfolio as presented on Page 14. The capital markets experienced considerable high volatility this quarter. In light of these market conditions, we are pleased with the performance of our investment portfolio. Our quarterly results benefited from positive returns on fixed income securities and real estate holdings. On the other hand, higher interest rates, wider credit spreads and both private and listed equities negatively affected overall performance. The match portfolio generated a return net of insurance finance that was essentially flat, while the free portfolio returned around 70 basis points. Risk in our portfolios remained low and we maintain a well-balanced asset allocation with a focus on high credit quality. We are confident that our investment strategy positions us well to withstand any further market turbulence.
Over to Page 15. The group solvency ratio based on the approved model was 195% at the end of the first quarter, an increase from 188% at the end of 2025. Please note that factoring into the redemption of the Tier 1 loan announced and completed earlier this month, the solvency ratio would have been 190%. Solvency II operating earnings and returns from the free portfolio made positive contributions to eligible own funds. In line with our established practice, for the calculation, we reduced own funds by applying a dividend of 80% of profit after tax. The sale of our Baltic business had a favorable effect on own funds, although this was offset by a reduction in eligible Tier 2 funds resulting from a lower capital requirement. We currently hold around NOK 400 million in Tier 2 funds that are not included in our eligible own funds, but anticipate that their full inclusion over time. The capital requirement declined due to a strengthening of the Norwegian krona against all relevant currencies as well as reduced market risk from the life insurance business. The sale of our Baltic operations further lessened the capital requirement. As previously announced, the overall effect of this divestment was a positive 5 percentage points.
And with that, I hand the word back to Geir.
Thank you, Jostein. To summarize on Page 16. We are very pleased with the robust performance this quarter. As mentioned earlier today, staying ahead of the inflation curve remains our top priority. Given the persistent uncertainty surrounding inflation and supply chain disruptions, we are monitoring developments closely and stand ready to take swift action whenever required.
Our strategic approach is built around 4 central priorities: customer empathy, profitable growth, resilience and disciplined capital management. These priorities ensure that we deliver solid financial results while also creating lasting value for both our customers and stakeholders, strengthening group's ability for long-term sustainable growth. We work continuously to achieve industry-leading cost efficiency and enhance profitability. Based on the progress we have made so far, we are confident that we will achieve our financial targets for 2026 and we see a strong foundation for continuing this positive development in the years ahead as well.
And with that, we will now open the Q&A session of this presentation.
[Operator Instructions] And with that, we will take our first question from a Norwegian number ending with the digits 6-0.
2. Question Answer
Can you hear me? This is Hans Rettedal Christiansen from Danske Bank Markets.
Just a moment.
Can you hear me?
Okay? Just a moment, we're working with the technical side of this.
Okay. Just let me know when I can take my question.
Yes. Just a moment. We're trying to get rid of the echo here. Okay. Please ask your question.
Yes. Congratulations on a very good quarter. I could have two, please. And just because the first one is really related to the quarter, it's relating to the court case in Denmark that was announced yesterday. And I'm just trying to understand how sort of certain you are on the figure you've given for the impact, especially given the fact that sort of other market participants have given quite varying numbers based on sort of market share. So trying to understand what the assumptions that you've used behind that estimate is and how sort of the firm you are on that number? That's the first question.
And then the second question is on the change to your guided inflation in motor and property in Norway. So you're effectively increasing the sort of expected inflation by 1 percentage point this quarter. Just trying to figure out or wondering a little bit what that means for your pricing going forward in the products? And if you're still firm on sort of pricing above your expected claims and frequency development going forward?
Thank you, Hans. I'll start on the Danish workers' comp estimates. We noted this as everyone, I think, yesterday that they were somewhat varying estimates when taking into account the different market shares there. And we underlined our stock exchange release yesterday that this is a very uncertain estimate. The main building blocks of such an estimate is an assumption of how many claims will be between the 5% to 15% range of the lost working ability and how many of these going back decades will actually come forward with a claim. For us, this verdict was very unexpected. We think it's also unreasonable given that this is a reversal of a practice that has been in the Danish workers' comp business for 40 years. But we'll have to take this into account and together with the rest of the Danish insurance industry, estimate or assess what kind of measures we can take.
Okay. Just to add to the first question. Also having in mind that the office handling each different claims regarding the workers' compensation in Denmark. It's handled by a governmental office independent on the kind of handling we do in our own claims division as well. So there is an industry topic going forward, how to handle this against the Danish government and the state.
But the second question regarding inflation. Yes, as you mentioned, we have updated our inflation estimates and that's due to what's happening around us as you understand, with higher energy prices and a consequence on different materials. But within property, we see that -- and as you know, 25% of the inflation is due to material prices and 75% is labor cost, which is more fixed over time. But now we know also the salary increases expected in Norway for '26 as well, which is close to around 4.2%. And within motor, 50% is labor cost and 50% material prices. So we have done new kind of new estimates on -- based on each different types of materials affecting both property and motor. And that's the basis for the new estimates. When going forward, our pricing will always be at least in line with expected claims development and inflation. So new estimates will definitely have an impact on our kind of pricing strategy going forward.
Okay. We will proceed to a U.K. number with the last digits 0-0.
This is Vash from Goldman Sachs. Could I just confirm if I'm audible, please.
Excuse me, can we repeat?
This is Vash here from Goldman Sachs. Can I just confirm if I'm audible?
Yes.
We can hear you.
Perfect. So two questions from me. One unfortunately, a follow-up on the Danish workers' comp. I fully appreciate that the financial impact remains quite uncertain. But are you at least able to share with us at this stage, what would be the next steps that you expect? And sort of the time line that you have in mind before you can get some certainty around this? Because I fully appreciate it's a lot of dealing with that many stakeholders in this process. But would you love to get a sense of the time line and the logistics that we are working with. That's the first question.
And the second question was actually around gross written premiums. So if I look at the GWP towards the end of the slide pack, it appears that your growth in commercial lines is much lower. I'm just trying to get a sense of what's driving that or if you could unpack what are your views on the commercial line in January because just the GWP seems a little weak.
Thank you, Vash. We -- on the further work that we will have to do internally before we come up with the exact number that we actually put into the accounts. We will work in a bit more detail to narrow down the wide range that we gave in the stock exchange release yesterday. So it's -- I won't give exact time line, but as we have already stated, within -- at the latest when we produce the second quarter results and maybe before that, and I guess we will then put out a separate notice if we end up with something before the second quarter results. So you will be duly informed about that.
In terms of other types of measures like how to meet this verdict, I think our approach is to cooperate closely with the other Danish insurance companies through the Danish Insurance Association for how to take this further.
Yes. A second question is regarding growth within especially commercial lines, and you referred to the growth regarding growth -- gross written premium. As -- what we have seen during the first quarter is -- and now we have done 40% of renewables for the commercial portfolio in total, which happened in January. We see that the retention rates are at a very satisfactory level when it comes to the SME part of the business, and we have seen that our kind of competitiveness in the market, especially in Norway has been very good during the first quarter regarding especially SME business.
When it comes to larger companies, large corporate companies, we see that especially within product lines, life and accident products, group life products. We have not successfully renewed a couple of larger clients, which are through broker channels and which have an impact on the kind of gross written premium during the first quarter. But that's a due to our core focus on profitable growth. And we did not want to renew the contracts with kind of conditions and pricing conditions, not in line with our profitability expectations.
Okay. We will proceed with another Norwegian number, ending with the digits, 4-3.
This is Ulrik Zurcher from Nordea. Yes. So a couple of follow-up questions on the commercial growth. I was just excluding these larger client losses. This is underlying inflation and growth around the inflation rates for retail. That's number one. And then I was wondering if you could quantify like what would be the solvency impact of the WC provision in Denmark? Is it just a subtraction to own funds? Or is there something -- will there be other factors playing?
Yes. When it comes to commercial lines, we are still doing the pricing at least in line with the expected inflation. And that's also our core focus when prioritizing profitable growth, and that's also part of the kind of the way we were thinking through the renewal in last January. We see that within larger part of our commercial business accepted the price increases, retention rate is still high. But as mentioned, we see on more group life products, we are not coming through to all clients when it comes to our repricing and -- which is consistent with our profitability kind of expectations. But we are talking about a few larger clients. So I'm not concerned on further development within the commercial business.
On the solvency effects of the Danish workers' comp verdict. The main effect is on the own funds. So we have given you an interval and then of course, need to subtract taxes and so on to get to the own funds affected. So that's the main of the calculation.
And just one follow-up. I was just wondering what drove the pension reserve strengthening.
We also note in accounts, there is -- that's IFRS 17 effect where we've gone through all the calculations from moving from IFRS to IFRS 17. And so that there were needs to increase the reserves under IFRS 17, no effects under IFRS 4 or solvency or the solvency regulation. So I would regard it as more of a technical adjustment.
If you look at the business mix in the Pension business and the foundation for further growth and profitability, we are not concerned about the development regarding the different product lines in that business and we still have the same kind of drivers for improving that kind of business going forward as well. So -- and if you look for IFRS 4 accounting, the changes had no impact this quarter.
Have you made an estimate of what the replacing the IT system will cost for Pension?
No, we have now finished kind of migration back from the IT system, we terminated and back to the existing system. And now we are having a kind of long-term view how to maintain a control development on this system and to kind of assess what you do next, but we are not in a hurry. We have done very good progress when it comes to the existing provider and the existing system to give us good time to actually do the right level of assessment needed when it comes to changing the system in the future. But we are not in a hurry, and we are picking up all the learning points from what's happened during the last 5 years regarding the terminated system.
All right. We will proceed with the question from Vinit Malhotra.
so just yes, my two questions. One is on the motor commentary on your slide, I think it's slide 5 where you said favorable weather conditions for motor in Norway. Have you made any attempt to kind of get a sense of how much was just a weather effect? And how much was your pricing or deductible actions or those kind of things in this improvement? So that's my first question.
And second question is -- just maybe it's been addressed, I'm sorry, if it has been. But in the Norwegian commercial, you mentioned the higher underlying loss ratio also from property. Now is that due to already some inflationary effect? Or is that due to some of random events like fire, I mean not fire, I don't think happen now. But why do you think that is the case, please?
Thank you, Vinit. On motor, we don't have a quantified effect of the weather, but the main improvements is not related to kind of weather volatility. It's more to do with pricing and a more stable claims inflation and frequency development, excluding weather volatility. So there is some favorable weather, and it certainly helps, but it's not the main explanation.
On the Norwegian commercial, fairly small change in the loss ratio. This is just normal volatility. We do not really see as of now, that there has been an uptick in claims inflation due to the geopolitical uncertainty. But as Geir said in the expectation going forward, we do see there is a risk for that due to higher energy prices feeding into all types of inflation in the future.
Okay. We will move on to the next question from a Norwegian number ending with the digits, 4-9.
This is Thomas Svendsen from SEB. So on this expected claims inflation, we can see that the currency -- Norwegian currency has strengthened, but we should not assume that, that would positively impact the inflation or you assume that, for instance, car parts will increase the same as the currency has -- the foreign currency has weakened? That was the first question.
And the second question on your note of turning down business in the larger corporate segments, are we talking about sort of big difference to your profitability margins? Or are you talking about small deviations that make you turn this down? And what do you think about growth and the competition in this channel for the remaining of the year?
Starting with the first one regarding currency and exchange rates and due to our inflation estimates, we always have in mind currency changes when setting the inflation, but it's difficult to give a precise forecast on that, of course. But when we actually make up, for instance, for motor setup, the inflation, 50% is regarding labor cost and 50% is material cost. And then we go down all the different prices for materials used in doing repair of cars. And for some parts, we see that inflation is definitely higher than 5%, 10%. And for other parts, we see that the inflation number is low. And then we do the whole calculation to see what the expected impact on our total inflation numbers. And we're setting our prices when we do repricing, we always have in mind to reprice at least in line with expected inflation, and then we also take into account any kind of uncertainty when it comes to currency development as well.
Yes, the second one, I think when it comes to commercial line and large corporates leaving Gjensidige. I would say that we are talking about customers, which use brokers in bid processes. I will not say that we are seeing prices in the market, which is significant difference from what we are offering, but we do have quite strong and strict profitability measures and ambitions regarding our customers. And you also see that we are very happy with the development regarding SME business, and we are not letting -- pushing the prices down to win the last two larger corporates within the broker channel business to put it that way. So this is a kind of ongoing consideration where to put your prices and to achieve profitability, which is in line with our expectations and targets. But so far, we haven't seen large differences, but there are some differences, which are not kind of within our expectations and requirements.
All right. There doesn't seem to be any further questions. So fine, we will now proceed. We are participating in roadshow meetings in Oslo today. Over the coming weeks, we will travel to London, Helsinki and Zurich for additional roadshow meetings and a conference. We will also attend group meetings in Oslo later this quarter. Further details are available in our financial calendar on our website as usual.
Thank you for your attention, everyone, and have a nice day.
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Gjensidige Forsikring — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Gjensidige Forsikring — Special Call - Gjensidige Forsikring ASA
1. Management Discussion
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Gjensidige's First Quarter 2026 Pre-close Call. My name is Mitra Negård, and I am Head of Investor Relations. With me, I have our IRO, Jonas Fougner. Please note that this call is being recorded, and a recording will be published on our Investor Relations website after the call.
We will start with going through the Q1 reminder, which was published on our website yesterday. This reminder highlights relevant public information and will not include any new business updates. Afterwards, we will open up for a Q&A session. As always, we only answer questions related to already disclosed and public information. And please note that if you want to ask questions, you need to log on via the Teams app. Over to you, Jonas.
Let us start with a few key dates. Our silent period starts on the 1st of April, and we will be releasing our Q1 results on the 29th of April. As always, we kindly ask you to forward your estimates using the template Mitra sent you yesterday. And please fill in all open cells in the sheet. We have included control lines to help you identify and avoid potential errors in your sheet.
Please make sure the control lines are error-free before sending the file back to us. The deadline for sending us your estimates is the 16th of April. We will publish consensus on our website on the 24th of April. Now let's move on to the reminder. As usual, we start with comments on the weather. For the sake of good order, we always remind you of the seasonality in our business with the winter quarters, Q1 and Q4 normally having higher claims ratios than the summer quarters Q2 and Q3. There have been no significant natural perils events in Scandinavia so far this quarter.
Overall, Q1 2026 has been consistently cold and dry in Norway. Denmark has also experienced relatively cold and dry conditions and also a period with heavy snowfall. Sweden started the winter with heavy snowfall and low temperatures followed by a milder period. The proposed dividend for 2025 of NOK 14.5 per share will be paid on the 10th of April, subject to approval by the AGM later today. The ex-date is tomorrow, the 27th of March.
With the sale of our Baltic operations completed on the 2nd of January, the line for profit from discontinued operations will no longer include results from this business. As announced at Q4, the group solvency ratio in Q1 2026 will have a positive impact of around 5 percentage points from the completion.
As announced in our stock exchange release on the 5th of February, following the recent ruling by the Danish Supreme Court concerning historical pricing practices in the Danish insurance market, we will reverse the provision of DKK 80 million in the first quarter of 2026.
As a reminder, this provision was recognized in the first quarter of 2024 following a ruling against Tryg, which was a party to the case. The reversal in the first quarter 2026 will be allocated in line with the original provisioning split with NOK 70 million as increased insurance revenue in Corporate Center and NOK 10 million recognized under other items.
Over to large losses, the expectation for 2026 is approximately NOK 580 million per quarter. And for the sake of good order, please note that this figure is an estimate and not a guiding per quarter. Large losses are random in nature. And in terms of quarterly estimates, we simply divide the annual estimate by 4.
In terms of excess reserves, there is no change in the communication. We continue to set reserves according to our best estimate. And bearing history in mind, we expect runoff gains and losses also in the future. On inflation, for the most recent comments on this topic, please refer to our Q4 2025 presentation material.
Moving to solvency. As usual, we have listed the main items for the eligible funds and the capital requirement in our reminder. Remember the effect from the completion of the sale of our Baltics operations Jonas just mentioned. Also, bear in mind that the eligible funds at the end of the fourth quarter this year or fourth quarter last year included approximately NOK 800 million of the NOK 900 million Tier 2 bond we issued in October 2024.
We expect the eligible amount of the Tier 2 loan to increase over time as the capital requirement increases, driven by growth. And the decision to call the Tier 1 bond, which we announced on the 2nd of March, the NOK 713 million outstanding does not affect own funds in the first quarter as the settlement date is on the 7th of April. Bear in mind the mechanics for dividend treatment when calculating eligible own funds. For the first through the third quarter, the deduction is based on the formulaic dividend equal to 80% of profit after tax. In the fourth quarter, the amount deducted is the residual of the proposed dividend for the year.
Moving on to our investment portfolio. As always, we believe a good starting point for estimating returns is using the same asset allocation as the previous quarter, applying returns on the indices we have listed in the reminder. And finally, on unwinding and change in financial assumptions, remember the rules of thumb and the example calculation published on our website. And as per routine, our reminder includes updated swap rates.
So with that, we will now open up for questions. Please raise your hand, and we will open your line.
Okay. There doesn't seem to be any questions. Thank you very much for your attention, and have a nice afternoon.
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Gjensidige Forsikring — Analyst/Investor Day - Gjensidige Forsikring ASA
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to Gjensidige's 2026 Capital Markets Day. My name is Mitra Negard, and I'm Head of Investor Relations. Today, you will hear how we at Gjensidige are ready to unlock the next level of our operations. We will present our ambitious goals through 2028 and walk you through how our operational and strategic priorities and our strong capabilities will enable us to deliver on them.
We have 6 speakers today, all members of Gjensidige's group management team. We will start with our CEO, Geir Holmgren, who will present the highlights of our ambitions and how we plan to achieve them. The next presenter is Johan Rostoft, who leads our Technology and Insight division. He will discuss how our technology platform serves as a key enabler of operational excellence. Rene Floystol, who heads our Private segment, will share how we are positioning for growth and enhanced efficiency across our private business. We will then move on to Lars Goran Bjerklund, EVP for Commercial, who will explain how we're shaping our commercial business for the next level. After a break TV Vivi Kofoed, who leads our Claims division will share our plans for driving the next level of claims excellence. Our CFO, Jostein Amdal, will conclude this session by summing up our priorities to ensure that Gjensidige continues to deliver attractive returns. After that, we will open up the floor for questions from the audience here in Oslo, and those of you joining us virtually.
I will now turn it over to our CEO, Geir Holmgren.
Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us here today. Over the last 2 years, we set out to strengthen the foundations of our business and position Gjensidige for the next level. Today, I'll show you how our focus on operational excellence and disciplined capital efficient and profitable growth is delivering and how we will raise the bar again. You see that the work we began at our previous Capital Markets Day to deliver superior customer experience and attractive returns has moved from promise to practice, and it sets a strong base for what's come next.
Over the period, we delivered strong and profitable growth, supported by advanced analytics improved value propositions and disciplined pricing. We also enhanced operational efficiency, unlocking synergies across geographies while keeping a tight grip on costs. Our resilience improved as we advanced our technology platform and broaden our analytics capabilities.
Finally, we maintain capital discipline, actively managing solvency and shareholder distributions while funding our strategy. We continue to manage the business in line with these thresholds as we build towards our 2026 ambition. Our execution is strong. The levers are working, and we are set up to keep compounding improvements from here. Like the industry, we've seen higher claims frequency and elevated repair costs, particularly in motor and property for Private in Norway. Our response has been targeted pricing and product measures granular, data-driven and sequence to protect customer value.
Frequency increased from 2023 to '25 in motor, property is inherently volatile. In addition, the absurd inflation has been high the last 3 years. We acted early and continuously, and we are tracking the impact cohort by cohort. We succeeded in putting through significant and necessary price increases, which in turn gradually improved margins and led to our strong delivery. And what we are very pleased with is that beside these necessary measures, retention remains high, underscoring the strength of our offering and the quality of customer relationships.
A key reason behind our strong progress is how we have leveraged scale and technology, accelerated digitalization, simplified our processes, strengthen core operations and improved data analytics. These fundamentals are embedded in how we run the business and are reflected in the outcomes we deliver, including significant claims savings -- including significant same -- claim savings across Norway and Denmark and a substantial improvement in distribution efficiency in private and at the same time, maintaining strong customer loyalty.
Cross-border collaboration also plays an important role. Our Norway Denmark integration demonstrates how shared solutions and aligned execution can reinforce the gains, driven by our broader operational improvements. By streamlining end-to-end operations and systematically sharing proven practices across markets, we ensure that effective processes, models and solutions scale quickly. Many of these improvements translate well into Sweden too. We're adopting shared Nordic standards, tools and ways of working is already strengthening performance, these effects are structural and compounding. This is how we improve efficiency and reinvest in growth while protecting margins.
Integration is not a one-off project. It's a capability. It strengthened execution today and expands our optionality for tomorrow. As we look ahead, there are some structural trends that will save the development of the Nordic nonlife insurance market, in addition to the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. First, demographic change and aging population and shrinking workforce will continue to drive higher demand for personal, health and pension-related solutions. Second, technology and artificial intelligence are reshaping industry rapidly, introducing both business risk and opportunities. Our technological capabilities are already delivering lasting improvements in cost efficiency, risk management and customer experience, and we expect the impact to accelerate over time.
We are proactively adapting our business strategy, distribution model and operations to take advantage of future technological changes. And third, climate change, increasing climate-related volatility makes pricing power, data-driven models and effective loss prevention measures more important than ever. We are already seeing these trends influence market dynamics today, but their impact will become even more pronounced over the medium term.
Gjensidige is well positioned to benefit from this shift with strong capabilities, a solid market position and a business model aligned with the direction of the industry change. The Nordics -- the Nordics are our home markets, and they remain one of the most attractive insurance markets in Europe. The region combines consistently high profitability, rational competition and a structurally cost-efficient operating environment, supported by one of the most digitalized societies and fully integrated insurance value chains.
Customers here expect seamless digital interactions, which allows us to run highly efficient processes across pricing, distribution and claims, strengthening both customer experience, and margins. Nordic customers show high loyalty to establish providers, local brands carry significant weight and trust is a key currency. Retention rates remain high, meaning growth is driven primarily through brand recognition and branch lengths and partnerships, long-standing customer relationships and distribution capacity. High customer loyalty integrated with digital ecosystems and well-established distribution partnerships create a very high threshold for new entrants.
When we look at Gjensidige today, we stand on a very strong foundation, one that positions us exceptionally well for the future. First, our presence across the Nordics and across customer segments gives us a unique advantage. Our presence across the commercial and real estate segments gives us scale, stability and deep customer insights.
Second, our ability to offer integrated customer journeys across pension, life, health and general insurance is a real differentiator. It allows us to meet customer needs more holistically, increased relevance in the daily lives and unlock meaningful cross-selling opportunities.
Third, Gjensidige is one of the strongest and most trusted brands in our markets, supported by consistently high customer loyalty. This trust accelerates acquisition, strengthen retention and reinforces our long-term position. Fourth, we are running a highly advanced data-driven business or high-quality data and modern processes give us competitive edge. We are already applying advanced AI in pricing, risk assessment, distribution and claims handling and we see clear efficiency and accuracy gains. Vivi will discuss how our efficient claims handling will be further strengthened in her presentation.
In addition, we are proactively adapting our business strategy to take advantage of future technological changes. This capability is central to being future ready. Fifth, sustainability is another important area. We have a climate robust risk models and a strong focus on damage prevention. This not only protects our customers and reduces claims, it also ensures our business remains resilient in a changing climate.
And finally, our capital position remains very solid, which gives us financial flexibility to invest where it matters, strengthening our core, accelerating innovation and exploring new growth opportunities.
Looking ahead, we will continue to explore both organic and inorganic opportunities within our geographic footprint. Always we are focused on value enhancing and firmly within general insurance. Our strong position and disciplined approach gives us flexibility to pursue opportunities that hurt us strengthen our competitive advantage and long-term value creation.
I'd like to point out 3 prioritized strategic areas, which are customer empathy, resilience and profitable growth. Let me start with customer empathy. We are moving toward more personalized and relevant dialogue across the customer journey, making interaction timely and meaningful for our customers and increased focus on damage prevention allows us to help customers avoid losses in the first place, reducing complexity, strengthening trust and building confidence over time.
Our next priority is resilience and it starts with safeguarding customers in uncertain times. Resilience is about being stable and reliable partner. Resilience is about absorbing shocks without compromising trust performance or long-term value creation. We are sharpening our technological resilience by continuing to improve underwriting position, strengthening risk models and ensuring our systems can withstand volatility from climate, inflation, repair complexity and shifting customer behavior.
High level of trust and our loyal customer base give an advantage when adapting business strategy, and operating model to AI and the technological development. A solid solvency position remains a core strength in uncertain time with higher geopolitical tension. Our resilience is further supported by the competence and culture across the organization, teams with strong expertise, disciplined execution and a shared sense of accountability.
Our third priority is long-term profitable growth. We will build on our market-leading position in Norway to capture emerging growth opportunities, a well-functioning distribution model supported by an integrated system landscape give us a strong platform to scale. We are also well positioned for growth in broad product areas, particularly within the home insurance, pension, health and other offerings shaped by evolving customer needs.
In Denmark, we are fully leveraged our strong broker position while strengthening our own distribution. In addition, the new core IT system enhances our ability to scale, innovate and compete effectively. To deliver on our strategy, we rely on 2 core capabilities that are both powerful and difficult to replicate, our people and our technology. Johan will walk you through how our technology platform underpins this, built on structural lean and proven foundation that enables value today and creates even greater potential for the future.
When we combine this strength with a strong brand, efficient operation and a clear market position, we build competitive edge that drives margin and growth and it's hard too much. Sustainable solutions are essential for long-term value creation, both for us as a company and for the society we serve.
On the slide here, you'll see several of the targets we set to guide our work. We are a signatory of the science-based target initiative, and we continue to align our efforts with the Paris agreement. This means we are committed to setting science-based targets that will define our pathway toward achieving the net zero emissions from our investment portfolio by 2050. Our contribution to sustainability goes beyond emissions. A core part of what we do is helping prevent damage in the first place. And then the damage does occur. We focus on sustainable claims handling -- we focus on sustainable claims handling, for example, through circle repair models, reuse programs and preferred green suppliers. This not only reduces environmental impact, but also supports better outcomes for our customers.
Finally, given the significant size of our investment portfolio, our investment decisions play a key role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We have recognized that capital allocation is one of the most powerful levers we have, and we take that responsibility seriously.
Let's now turn now to our new financial targets. Our financial targets for 2026 remain unchanged. We are committed to delivering a combined ratio below 82%. Our cost ratio around 13% and our return on equity about 24%, our solvency ratio between 140% and 190% and an insurance service result of more than NOK 7.5 billion, and more than NOK 750 million in Denmark. We are executing against these goals with confidence. And we are already shaping a clear trajectory to create attractive returns beyond that horizon.
Looking ahead to 2027 and 2028. In that period, we will aim to deliver a combined ratio below 81%. Our cost ratio around 12% and a return on equity above 28%. In 2028, our target is to deliver an insurance service result above NOK 10 billion. Our solvency ratio target will remain within the range of 140% and 190%. This trajectory rests on 3 core drivers: First, we are leveraging our scale by pursuing profitable growth, by expanding in areas where we see attractive opportunities, building on strong customer insight and a clear data advantage.
Second, we are completing the integration agenda and fully exploiting shared platforms to unlock structural efficiency. And third, we are strengthening our leadership in core processes through claims excellence, deeper analytics, further digitalization and enhanced customer journeys. Together, these drivers put us in a position to set even higher targets for the years ahead. We are strongly positioned for long-term growth, and you will hear more about this throughout today's presentations.
Starting with mobility. Our priority is to preserve the strong position we already hold and continue to build on it. We benefit from an extensive and well-established partner network that gives us reach and resilience. Our presence in the toll ecosystem through fleet is becoming increasingly valuable, both as a source of high-quality leads and to create more frequent and more meaningful customer touch points. REDGO gives us a strong on-the-ground presence and because it is integrated in our claims processes. It enables efficient handling and consistently strong customer experience at competitive costs.
Looking ahead, the rise of autonomous driving technologies will reshape customer expectations, risk profiles and partnerships across the motor value chain. Our strong ecosystem position puts us in a good place to adapt early, capture new growth opportunities and ensure we continue to meet customer needs as mobility becomes more automated.
Turning to property. Our focus is on broadening the offering in ways that strengthen loyalty and drive cross sales. As Rene will highlight, in housing, we operate the most complete value chain in the industry and holding a leading position in change of ownership insurance and damage prevention, giving us a defensible advantage in a market that is essential and growing.
For commercial customers, Lars Goran will show how we are developing new concepts tailored to specific needs and industry dynamics. In life, health and pension, we operate in a growing market, and our ambition is to strengthen our unique position even further. Pension plays a particularly important role both as a cost and a capital-efficient growth area and as a key lever to broaden and reinforce our overall customer offerings.
Building an attractive and scalable partner network, will also be essential as we continue to expand in this space. Across all product verticals, we will increase our capacity and market activity -- market activity level through higher distribution capacity and efficiency.
Now I will hand the word over to Johan, who will discuss the priorities to further enhance our technology platform and show how this will contribute to delivering on our group ambitions going forward. Thank you.
Thank you, Geir. I'm Johan Rostoft, Head of Technology and Insight. It's good to see you all, and I'm excited to be covering how technology is a strategic enabler of operational excellence in Gjensidige. As Geir highlighted, Gjensidige has set clear and ambitious goals, and technology is key to achieving these ambitions. As we translate the business goals into technology objectives as set of outcomes emerge. We need to enable further distribution efficiency improvements, strengthen pricing and underwriting precision, capturing new growth opportunities and last but not least, we need to maintain our cost leadership. This requires razor-sharp prioritization of investments into a simpler IT infrastructure platform, that leverages shared and reusable data and AI capabilities.
Before I outline our priorities going forward, let's look at the solid technical base these ambitions will be built on. For many years, Gjensidige has had a strong technology foundation, and we continue to strengthen it. First, cost efficiency, it's built into the design, shared platforms from cloud infrastructure to developer tooling and security, reduce duplication and increase developer productivity.
Combined with strict application portfolio management, this ensures technology spend remains disciplined and tightly aligned with business value. This is reflected in Gjensidige's low-cost ratio and competitive IT spend concentration. Second, automation already delivered significant impact. Automated claims processing has reached 67%, reducing manual handling and cycle time. Usage of the customer app, which leads the fields in terms of user ratings has doubled over the last 3 years. Automation down right delivers both lower costs and improved customer experience for Gjensidige.
Third, we have a solid foundation for machine learning and AI models in place. Hundreds of production models support sales prediction, risk selection, fraud and claims, providing a repeatable engine for higher conversion and underwriting accuracy. Developers also benefit from shared tools and platforms, resulting in a doubling of deployed frequency over the last 3 years.
Let me share one example to illustrate the power of the model cluster we use for sales prediction and best offer duration. When Gjensidige both fleet, the road toll company that Geir also mentioned and which has about half of Norwegian car owners as customers, we initiated cross-selling based on providing leads. Every month, we closed material but not a very large number of new insurance sales on those leads.
Then we established a automatic connection between the stream of leads and our CRM model cluster. Within a matter of months, we increased the run rate of sales by more than 10x, generating significant value for Gjensidige. Finally, our Nordic organization governance model and joint priority decision process, ensure value-driven decisions and capital allocation across segments and markets. And here, I have to highlight the incredible talent pool of our employees.
Employee engagement is well within the top quartile of technology companies. And this strong base makes it easier to attract and retain key talent. This gives us a strong foundation as we enter the next strategy period.
Looking ahead, we will continue to deliver value. Our ambition going forward are not -- is not about large new IT projects but rather about prioritizing what matters most to the business, creating impact for customers in a highly efficient way. This brings us to 3 strategic priorities towards 2028, simplifying our IT foundation, amplifying our data advantage and accelerating automation and AI. And I will now go deeper into each and explain how they link to the business requirements.
Number one, simplify our IT foundation. Simplification means fewer systems, shared platforms and a more flexible technology stack thereby reducing complexity and positioning us for future technology shifts. Today, I will focus on a key initiative within this area, core system consolidation. And I'm starting with Denmark. We have now launched a new core system. It is the IDIT platform. In parallel, we have continued to consolidate all the core systems. And in the last 2 years, we have completed migration of 3 legacy systems into IDIT.
The IDIT core system is live, following a phased rollout designed to minimize risk and ensure continuity and robust operations as we progress towards a single core in Denmark. Lars will address how IDIT unlocks new opportunities for our business in Denmark.
In Norway, we were able to integrate the product and sales systems acquired with -- in the BuySure transaction within a matter of months. Our extensive experience in consolidating core systems is a key capability, and we are enhancing our migration approach with AI capabilities to even further accelerate future migrations and future consolidations.
Controlling technical debt by consolidating core systems is paramount to maintaining lean IT operations. The reduction of IDIT's book value that many of you might have questions about is not related to Denmark. In Norway, our core system remains one of the most stable and cost-efficient platforms in the industry. When we made a decision about IDIT as a group-wide system, we assume a relatively short remaining life for our mainframe platform.
Today, our experience and even external analysts now increasingly support the opposite view. Continuous modernization beats a full mainframe exit on risk, cost and business impact. And in our planning, we look to modernize the system in Norway and rather move smaller system components out of the mainframe environment to a modern cloud infrastructure.
The effect is that the value of the code we have built in Denmark is reduced for application in Norway and Sweden. But this method gives us more time and more optionality. We have one critical capability that is important here. We have strong in-house technical excellence and deep system knowledge. Together with experts from our partners, this lowers execution risks and gives us full control of how we evolve the core. Overall, this more modular approach reduces the need for large, extensive core replacement programs, while it maintains the high-performance and evolving platform that the business has come to appreciate.
Data is our second strategic priority. Data is the backbone of personalization, efficiency and AI impact. And the goal is simple, the right data at the right time for every decision and customer interaction. We have built a group-wide data platform that provides a single data interface. After moving billions of data points, the platform is now live and operational, offering faster access to consistent high-quality data, supporting stronger governance, model performance and efficient data product development.
Real-time data streaming allows us to react as customer signals occur across every touch point, decision and model. This enables a more responsive AI and hyper-personalized journeys, and Rene will dive into how private utilizes this to unlock next-generation distribution efficiency. New ways of working self-service data products, APIs and integrations supported by automated governance, ensures resilience while giving teams the autonomy to move faster. This shift in ways of working means the business can adapt faster to changing needs, build and launch without bottlenecks and connect more easily to new partners, and Vivi will highlight some exciting applications within claims. This data foundation allows us to deliver on clear business needs, supporting real-time personalization, faster time to market, lower cost to serve and stronger model performance.
Now to our third strategic priority. And let me first set the stage. Gjensidige has invested in automation and machine learning for many years, giving us a strong starting position as AI enters a new phase with generative capabilities and agent-based workflows. Our ambition is clear. We want to be market leading when it comes to realizing value from AI. This means embedding AI into key processes, ensuring robust AI infrastructure, building competence and strict prioritization of value-creating cases. To win, you need to have data. In other words, you need your information to be digital. Then there needs to be technology platforms on which you can run and orchestrate models, and then you need to develop and deploy models and agents at scale.
Gjensidige is well positioned to succeed. Over the last decade, we have invested heavily in optimizing and automating our processes. We continue to expand digital coverage across customer journeys, channels and modalities, enabled by voice, image and text capabilities. And this allows us to automate more interactions, increased straight-through processing and reduce manual effort. A clear example is claims, where 86% of claims in Norway are now reported digitally, and straight-through processing levels continue to rise. It has also impacted fraud detection, and we will address this also later today.
Our CRM engine, which I described earlier, is, of course, built on and continuously enhanced by AI and machine learning capabilities. More than 200 models in production constantly benefit from more data and better operating infrastructure. And we are not limiting AI development a few specific cases.
Our group-wide initiative to build competence and support uptake help increase internal adoption of Gen AI by more than 70% in 6 months. More and more employees understand the potential, experience the benefits of this new technology, and they see how it can provide value to their workdays. This means, we are not only building technology. We are building the organizational capacity to apply it at scale.
Going forward, we will continue to leverage our digital leadership to transition to an AI-driven operating model across more core business processes. And I'd like to share a few examples. Within pricing, more than 2,000 models generate the current tariff universe that we have today. The new pricing architecture that we are building will enable faster integration of new signals, so each of these 2,000 models will be provided by 5 to 10x the number of direct data points, thereby improving precision significantly.
Also in underwriting, the way we are exposing AI capabilities to the business opens new exciting opportunities, and Lars will share more on this shortly. And AI is accelerating how we build and ship software. Employee frequency has more than doubled over the past years, and we see further potential as we scale low-code and agent-based platforms. This less team develop and deploy models faster and with more consistency.
So to sum up, this is about scale and speed. AI is already improving precision in pricing, underwriting, software, delivery and so on. And we are set up to expand those gains across more of the core business processes. The foundation in place reduces duplication and allows new capabilities to be rolled out across the group, constantly translating innovation into measurable business impact.
The priorities I have outlined today set a clear direction for what we want to achieve by 2028. They also set the stage for a strong technology foundation that we can rely on, on the years beyond. Towards 2028, our focus is on scaling real-time data, automation and AI across the value chain, pursuing value creation opportunities and ensuring we maintain our structural cost advantage. With a lean core shared platform and a unified data foundation, we are positioned for the next phase with the ability to respond faster, innovate at lower marginal cost and support the business with higher accuracy and resilience. By delivering on these priorities, we build momentum for technology-driven value creation and growth beyond 2028.
Okay. As I started out saying, technology is a key enabler of operational excellence and our technology priorities are carefully designed to deliver business impact. We will enable further distribution efficiency improvements, strengthen pricing and underwriting precision, new growth opportunities and all of this while maintaining our cost leadership.
So now I look forward to hearing how the business side will translate this into value creation. Rene, over to you.
Thank you, Johan. My name is Rene Floystol, and I'm responsible for Gjensidige's Private segment in Denmark and Norway. We are focused on positioning private for further growth and higher efficiency. Our strong market position and momentum gives us a good base to capture more profitable growth to make that happen. We are strengthening customer relationships, so we keep the customers we have and attract new ones.
And we are improving operations, becoming more efficient, raising quality and increasing our distribution power. Before we dive in, let's take a quick look at the results achieved since the last Capital Markets Day. Over the past years, our strong distribution power and pricing discipline have driven higher revenue growth. Combined with our strong focus on efficiency, this has delivered solid profitability. And there is still room for further improvement as we continue to strengthen operations.
In Denmark, we have clearly seen the benefits of utilizing best practices across markets. We have generated strong revenue growth and achieved higher results supported by pricing discipline, improved operations and targeted cost efficiency measures. While we're encouraged by this progress, profitability still needs to be strengthened, which is a key focus throughout my presentation today. Behind our strong results, lies a robust development of our key operational targets. Since 2023, our distribution efficiency has increased by 31%, well above our target and more than a year ahead of schedule. This improvement has mainly been driven by our market-leading pricing capabilities, better use of data and CRM technology and new partnerships such as the real estate agents through the acquisition of BuySure.
Our customer retention rate in Norway has stayed stable at around 90%, which is a very strong result given the significant and necessary price increases. In Denmark, we have had a positive development driven by best practice sharing from Norway and technical improvements, especially our new core system. Customer satisfaction has been a challenge across the industry, and our scores reflect the broader market situation. This gives us a good upside potential as we continue improving both customer experience and operational delivery.
Let us look into our focus on capturing growth opportunities. Our growth agenda is anchored in our 3 core product verticals. They represent our entry point for new customers and future cross-selling opportunities. Within mobility, we already have a strong position in Norway as the market leader for insurance for both new and secondhand cars. Our ambition is to maintain that position and capture at least our share of market growth. This is supported by our combined offerings across insurance, tolling and roadside assistance. As an example, our ownership in fleet gives us in total access to over 50% of Norwegian car owners.
For property, our ambition is to drive volume growth and expand our market reach. We continue to build on our strong momentum by upselling to existing customers, scaling new offerings, building loyalty and at the same time preventing damage. Life & Health is a smaller part of our current portfolio, but it's a growing market with attractive long-term potential. Going forward, we will strengthen our positioning by leveraging our strong brand, existing capabilities and the solid platform we have built within mobility and property. Lars will this in some more detail.
To drive growth, we are utilizing opportunities within ongoing market dynamics. First, new ecosystems are emerging, creating opportunities to broaden reach through new markets and partners. Second, AI-driven agents are reshaping the customer journey. AI-driven tools, bots and automated solutions enable far more efficient customer dialogue. Lastly, customer expectations are evolving. People increasingly expect personalized, seamless and high-quality digital experiences. By capitalizing on a strong brand, existing capabilities and efficient operating model, we are well positioned to capture these growth opportunities. We'll do this by focusing on 2 priorities: deepening customer relationships, and enhancing our operation through new technology, which will give us both increased distribution power and next level efficiency.
We operate in an industry with naturally few customer interactions. As new ecosystems and AI-driven solutions emerge, we see new opportunities to remain top of mind and secure customer attention. Therefore, one of our strategic priorities is to strengthen and differentiate our value proposition, to retain existing customers and attract new ones. To achieve this, we work systematically to meet customers' needs throughout the entire customer journey. We seek to be more proactive and solve more of our customers' problems. This means strengthening our presence in high engagement moments when attention and value potential are the highest.
In the usage phase, we are complementing traditional insurance with value-adding and damage preventing services. This approach strengthens our customer relationships and is the best way forward to secure profitable growth because this will give us a differentiated value proposition. In other words, we will deliver more value than our competitors. And we will be present at the most relevant moments in the customer journey, making sure we increase both frequency and relevance towards our customers. And finally, we will get lower customer acquisition costs, because we are developing products and services, customers are willing to pay for on a stand-alone basis.
Now let me show you how we apply this approach in mobility and property journeys. We have a proven track record with our approach in mobility. Here, we have strong presence across the customer journey, offering relevant services to both customers and partners. For example, to be present in both the transaction and the usage phase, we have established the Bilista app for our toll-tag customers. It offers services such as car repair booking and gives us a strong platform for sales and upselling. This is performing even better than we expected.
Building further on our presence in the usage phase. We also provide roadside assistance through REDGO. This strengthens the customer and partnership experience at a critical moment and helps reduce claims cost. Our strong existing position means we are well prepared for the changes reshaping the auto industry. As technology, data and new ecosystems, transform mobility including the gradual introduction of autonomous vehicles, our broad presence across the customer journey ensures we remain relevant and capture value as the market evolves.
Building on what we have achieved in mobility. We are now applying the same customer-centric and insight-driven model to the property journey. The key reason for investing in the home and property insurance market is the importance of our home insurance customers. They are among the most valuable in our portfolio and represents Gjensidige's core customer base. In Norway, these customers hold 3x more policies, pay 3x higher premiums and save 50% longer than the average customer.
In Denmark, we see the same pattern, twice the product holdings, 2.5x the premiums and 40% longer tenure. This reflects both the strength of our offering and our focus on homeowners. 3 selected examples show how we create business value by delivering direct and relevant services in the property market. First, our strong position in the change of ownership insurance market provides safety during an important life event. Through strong partnerships and strategic initiatives, we have access to around 35% of all property transactions in both Denmark and Norway.
Second, by offering home insurance, combined with smart alarm technology, we go beyond traditional insurance. In just 9 months, 15% of all property insurance sales in Norway includes smart insurance products installed in Norwegian's homes. This is driving loyalty and helping to prevent damage. Lastly, we have launched a new service called Hei, huset, this gives customers real-time insights and proactive alerts that help them avoid costly damage.
Let's take a closer look at how the change of ownership market gives us access to attractive growth opportunities within the Property segment. The change of ownership market is sizable in both countries with around 100,000 annual property transactions in Norway, and about 85,000 in Denmark. This makes the change of ownership insurance a sizable opportunity, roughly NOK 2.5 billion in Norway and NOK 1 billion in Denmark in local currencies. This is a valuable position for us.
Property transactions are critical decision points with high relevance and low switching barriers. That makes them a natural moment to also distribute home and content insurance. This gives us a strong opportunity to win new customers and build long-term loyalty.
Let me show you another property example by highlighting our new service, Hei, huset. It's built on AI technology, and this concept has the potential to drive both future growth and reduce claims costs. This service gives you the opportunity to talk to your house. It will, for example, give you relevant damage prevention advice at a relevant time. Hei, huset will use both external and Gjensidige specific data to be relevant for the customer.
Let us have a quick look at what Hei, huset looks like today.
[Presentation]
Next level efficiency and distribution power is our second main focus area. We will continue developing one of our greater strengths delivering efficiency and quality through all customer touch points. As customer expectations rise and AI-driven solutions reshape how we interact with customers. New technology enables us to take the customer experience, our efficiency and distribution power to the next level.
We have proven that our in-house data-driven omnichannel model delivers strong efficiency gains. To raise the bar even further, we will maintain and build on our ongoing improvement efforts. We will continue to optimize channels and activities based on analytical approaches and data driven insights.
In addition, we see that technology creates new opportunities. This includes leveraging AI to enable next-generation customer service and introducing next level CRM through hyper-personalization. As we have different starting points across our markets, our short-term focus in Denmark is to optimize the existing distribution model and by best practices from Norway. In Norway, we are further in exploring advanced AI solutions that will later be roll out in Denmark. We expect these improvements to drive stronger top line growth through better customer experiences and improved distribution efficiency. We have already made solid progress in both countries, and we are ready to improve it further.
Let's take a look at how we are leveraging new technology. Based on AI, we can manage inbound traffic more efficiently. By handling inquiries at first contact, we can avoid rerouting and high-frequency tasks can be fully handled by bots faster and more correctly than by an adviser. The remaining human touch points can then be handled faster with improved quality and better customer experience. The expected impact is significant with potential for around 50% of interactions fully automated, around 15% increase in first contact resolution and a 10% uplift in sales on inbound traffic.
Next, let's look at how we create value by using hyper personalization to take CRM to the next level. By building on our already advanced data analytics platform, we see an even greater potential to more sophisticated data orchestration. By analyzing real-time data, we can identify and reach up to 40% more potential prospects. With generative AI, we can approach these prospects with more tailored communication, making sure we communicate the right content in the right channel at the right time, enabling us to personalize all our customer campaigns.
And by providing customers with content that is relevant and useful, we expect to increase engagement and lift hit rates by 50%. Going forward, we have set new ambitions for 2028, aiming to increase distribution efficiency by another 20% across both countries, maintaining our high retention and satisfaction in Norway and increased loyalty to 86% and satisfaction to 70% in Denmark. These ambitions reflect our commitment to build on what we are already good at, create stronger relationships and sustainable value for Gjensidige and our customers.
But keeping a strong focus on our priorities, we expect to capture profitable growth in the years ahead. We are coming out of a period where the priority has been to build an efficient and robust core capitalizing on synergies and best practices across markets. With a stronger foundation, we are now in a position to drive growth through deeper customer relationships and technology-driven efficiency improvements. The momentum we are building today gives us the ability to capture growth at an even greater scale beyond 2028.
As I close, I want to briefly reconnect to where I started. Our goal is to position private for continued growth and higher efficiency. We have a solid base to build from -- and the work I've presented today, strengthening customer relationships and improving how we operate is exactly what will help us capture that growth going forward.
Now I will hand the word over to Lars.
Thank you, Rene, and good morning, everybody. My name is Lars Goran Bjerklund, and I'm Head of Commercial in Denmark and Norway and also Head of our Swedish operations as well. And I also oversee a pension distribution in Norway. But today, I'm going to focus, first and foremost, on our commercial business in Denmark and Norway. We have clear ambitions. In Norway, we are a market leader. And this position is intent to strengthen and to strengthen going forward through a relentless focus on customer experience and operational excellence.
In Denmark, we aim to expand our position, especially in the SME segment. leveraging on our market insight and expertise. Demand for life, health and pension continues to rise. And we have the required expertise and set up to capture this growth. In sum, our ambitions support a solid profitable growth moving forward.
And today, I'm going to share our '28 operational targets and the actions behind them. But first, starting with a quick look at the financial development since 2023. Our continuous work to improve and optimize has resulted in a solid revenue growth and an improvement in the underlying frequency loss ratio in both Denmark and Norway. The combined ratio in Denmark reflects a very low large losses in '23 versus a more normalized level in '25 and costs related to preparing for IDIT.
In sum, Commercial has delivered solid results with NOK 4.8 billion insurance service result in '25. In '23, we set ambitious operational KPIs. And looking at our performance so far, customer retention in Norway has remained very strong and above our target. Customer retention in Denmark is somewhat below target, primarily driven by portfolio pruning. The inflow of small companies is volatile, and we are currently below the goal we set in '23. But with the targeted initiatives in motion, I'm confident that we will reach our 2026 ambition. And finally, we are delivering on the ambition for net customer growth in Denmark.
Summing up, we are on track to deliver on the KPIs, except retention in Denmark. So what's next? We operate across Norway and Denmark, serve customers of all sizes in preferred industries. Deep industry and risk expertise enable us to maintain and further develop a healthy and well-diversified portfolio. For larger customers, we have a selective approach offering tailored solutions when risk is in line with our appetite. This approach has proven effective over time and will remain central also going forward.
I will start giving you an insight in our ambitions and then on to how we will deliver on them. In Norway, the #1 market position is built on strong fundamentals and a well-diversified portfolio. It is realized through a combination of a strong own distribution and solid broker relations. Our priority is to retain current customers, enhance portfolio quality and increase distribution power to selectively pursue growth opportunities. Within this small businesses stand out as an attractive segment due to profitability and receptiveness to digital solutions. They are also an entry point to the next generation of businesses.
In Denmark, we are currently #4 with a portfolio shaved by past acquisitions. This has given us a tilt towards certain segments and industries. And our focus is profitable growth with SMEs as a key target. Further portfolio and further portfolio diversification to better reflect the Danish commercial market and to strengthen the distribution power. Our long-standing broker relationships remains key, especially in the short term.
In the medium term, our new core system will enable us to build in-house omnichannel distribution capabilities for the future. The ongoing migration to IDIT is a major transformation, and an investment that will position us for a robust, scalable setup and superior customer interaction.
In the product dimension, we addressed the continued strong market growth within life, health and pension, the business landscape in Norway and Denmark is steadily shifting from traditional industries to more service and knowledge-based sectors, and this trend continues. At the same time, the pressure on public health care systems across the Nordics is rising. And this fuels a strong demand for employer founded life, health and pension solutions. And at time, if we drive demand for new solutions and more integrated offerings.
For insurers, this means risk profiles are changing. We used to mainly ensure physical assets. Now we are increasingly ensuring people. We have necessary experience inside and the product suite needed to participate in this shift. As a result, we are well positioned to capture growth within life and health across all segments. Beyond '28, we expect to shift where life and health products will represent a relatively larger share of our portfolio.
So let's look at pension and its strategic role in our offerings to Norwegian SMEs. We provide this segment with a full life health and pension package that strengthens loyalty and delivers value. We hold a #4 position in the defined contribution market, and the pension business delivers solid profitability. The market is set for strong long-term growth, and we are well positioned to capture our share. We aim to grow in the SME segment by offering a comprehensive different in getting life, health and pension package. We will achieve this by leveraging our efficient distribution model for cross-selling, seamless self-service solutions, more individualized customer experiences and effective use of AI.
So let's move on to how we will realize our ambitions. We stay focused on the fundamental drivers for long-term value. Our priorities are summarized as analytical and powered core. These 4 areas cover all aspects of our operations. We always aim to go to the next level, when it comes to customer experience, operational excellence, having a responsible value proposition and our employees. And I will now show you examples of how we are developing within each of these areas.
Starting with customer experiences. Insurance may not be top of mind for most business managers, but it is a critical part of management and employee compensation. And we are committed to making the customer journey as seamless and effortless as possible. Over the past 2 decades, we have moved from manual advisor-driven processes to more data-driven journeys with self-service solutions. Advanced management -- data management and modeling allow us to deliver the right message through the optimal channel at the right time, tailored to each customer.
Now we are stepping up to next level. In Norway, we're moving beyond the traditional annual activity cycle and introducing a continuous customer journey. This means less focus on annual renewal, and more automated ongoing customer updates. The result is a more dynamic and relevant experience, and we ensure that being a customer of Gjensidige requires a little effort from the customer as possible.
In Denmark, we are building awareness and trust in Gjensidige, and every positive customer interaction contributes. With IDIT, we have a game changer that will significantly improve customer experiences once it's fully implemented. As one of the most advanced systems globally, it unifies digital access and high-quality personal advice. Consolidating several legacy systems into one modern platform drives efficiency, scalability and of course, long-term profitability.
In Norway, we have spent years developing digital solutions step by step, and we are currently one of the most digital mature companies in our industry. We will leverage this advantage in Denmark, skipping many of the early stages and advancing faster. Customer adoption is critical. And we are committed to driving usage on new solutions. We aim for customer experiences that are simpler, more relevant and comprehensive. Digital solutions supports this, and we free up advisor capacity to support customers who really need personal guidance.
Optimal pricing and favorable risk selection requires deep expertise, robust data insight and advanced technology. And we have the expertise and apply it in every customer interaction. Let me highlight 2 areas where we expect significant effects starting with individual underwriting. For unique or complex risks, we deploy our highly experienced underwriters and risk engineers, supported by data and underwriting tools. Since '23, we have reorganized to leverage competence and capacity across countries and already seeing reduced handling times and strengthening industry insight. We are now entering a first phase of a major shift, transforming the underwriting value chain.
We are building a unified fact-based Nordic risk perspective, one risk appetite, one metrology and one toolbox across the Nordics. And combined with local execution for speed, we secure competitiveness. Relevant AI and other system solution will help us extract insight and data efficiently. With outputs of this will be validated by our experts. This will be a scalable setup that reduces time to market and decreasing distribution power and quality.
The second aspect I would like to highlight is the customer scoring models that are central to us in repricing all customers. We have implemented machine learning models across all portfolio segments in Norway. And we are now integrating customer churn prediction models directly in the repricing process. This takes modeling to the next level in portfolio optimization. We are currently most advanced in Norway, but Denmark is closing in. In the short term, we will implement both machine learning scoring models and churn prediction models there as well. These scoring models significantly improve risk selection, and we continue to secure sharper pricing differentiation and improving profitability. And it will reduce and will have a reduced churn for our most profitable customers. And we are not stopping here. We keep enhancing these models and implementing best practice going forward.
Turning to responsibility. The need for action toward a more sustainable future is urgent. We anticipate the risk of tomorrow and are well positioned to meet changing customer needs. Life, health and pension solutions are a central part to social responsibility, enabling employers to safeguard their most valuable assets, their employees.
Let me give you 2 examples. First, back to work, an offering included in several life, health and pension products. The aim is to reduce sickness absence and prevent long-term disability. Combining experts port and tailored followup, employees return to work faster, while employee costs are reduced. And we are now launching a new updated version, including tailored guidance for cancer survivors. This will make the offering even more impactful.
Second example, pension customers benefit from responsible investments. We are the only provider in Norway, offering pension profiles investing exclusively in funds having sustainable investments as is primarily goal. Our ambition is to set the market standard for damage prevention and responsible value propositions.
In the commercial market. Digital solutions are a key part of our omnichannel distribution model, especially for SMEs, but insurance still needs to be sold, and our employees remain central to our value creation. We invest in tools that make customers service smoother, more efficient and consistently with high quality. Efficiency gains our first and foremost about strengthening distribution power.
In Norway, we run on Gjensidige's shared data platforms, complemented by targeted AI solutions that improve workflow efficiency, reinforce compliance and enable first contact resolution. Several solutions are now being rolled out and they are well received. In Denmark, IDIT is the backbone for building our omnichannel distribution model, enabling our frontline to deliver consistent quality at scale. And across both markets, empowering employees will continue to sharpen efficiency, quality and relevance and increase distribution capacity towards and beyond '28.
With this foundation, let's turn to the KPIs that will indicate our progress and underpin profitable growth. First, we target more than 12% improvement in distribution efficiency. This is about increasing distribution power through targeted measures. Given today's already highly efficient operations, the ambition is demanding but achievable.
Second, we aim to maintain customer attention above in Norway and about 86% in Denmark. In Norway, keeping retention at this level requires continued strong execution in Denmark, maintaining the current level during the IDIT transition is ambitious, but our ongoing initiatives give us confidence.
And finally, we aim for 5% growth in accident and health policies in both markets. This is well above today's run rate, but achievable with the right initiatives. As we look back and ahead, we have strengthened performance in the previous period and proven our ability to take actions that translate into financial impact.
In the coming period, we will stay on this path, taking actions that drive profitable growth, elevate customer experiences and strengthen our distribution power. These actions will generate effects towards '28 and accelerate beyond.
So let me close with our key priorities: strengthening our #1 position in Norway, driving profitable growth with SMEs in Denmark and capturing opportunities within life, health and pension.
We will now take a 20-minute break. And after that, Vivi will walk us through our ambitions in claims.
[Break]
Welcome back. My name is Vivi Kofoed, and I'm responsible for our Claims division. Today, I will present our new Claims ambitions towards 2028, driving the next excellence of claims and give you a short recap on the results we have delivered since our last Capital Market Day. We have set clear ambitions for our claims division with a long-term goal of securing a leading position in the claims space. By transforming claims handling, through advanced data capabilities, we will deliver an empathic claims experience, advancing next-generation operating model and strengthening supply chain efficiency.
But before we dive further into an ambition, let me highlight what we have achieved so far. At our Capital Market Day in 2023, we announced an ambition to realize claims cost savings of NOK 800 million in 2026. In March last year, we announced that we had already realized NOK 812 million, achieving our goal almost 2 years ahead of time. And since then, we have continued to realize savings. By year-end 2025, we have achieved NOK 1.1 billion in total Claims cost savings, almost 40% above target, contributing to our strong, strong financial results. And I'm proud of all the skilled colleagues in our Claims Division for the work that has enabled these results.
We have not only delivered on our cost-saving goals, we've also built strong strategic capabilities in digitalization of claims handling. In Norway, 86% of all claims are now reported digitally and Denmark is rapidly catching up with an online reporting rate of 76% of claims handled in our new core system. At the same time, we continue to make substantial progress in automation. Today, 41% of Norwegian claims are processed straight through and 67% of all underlying sub-processes run automatically. We are now entering a new phase where the introduction of agentic AI will not only take automation to a high level, but also represent a significant shift and advancement in data-driven claims handling, building on the strong foundation already in place.
Looking towards 2028, we have set a clear ambition to further strengthen our competitive position. We aim to deliver NOK 600 million in additional Claims cost savings measured against the 2025 baseline with approximately 70% coming from Norway and the rest in Denmark. We will deliver this through three value drivers: one, delivering faster peace of mind to sustain a strong position with customers; two, advancing a scalable and resilient operation, able to absorb volatility and drive structural claims cost savings; and three, unlocking further value across our partner ecosystem, strengthening supply chain efficiency and long-term cost competitiveness. These improvements reflect structural changes, in how we operate and not temporary efficiency gains.
The Nordics are among the most digitalized insurance markets globally. And today, customers expect fast and simple claims handling and an increasing share of claims dialogue now take place online. At the same time, knowing when a customer needs immediate online resolution and when a human reassurance is the right outcome, its fundamental to the trust that has defined Gjensidige's customer position for more than 200 years. Our first value driver towards 2028 is, therefore, delivering faster peace of mind, continuing to stay ahead of customer needs. Every claim is someone's story. And in that moment, speed and clarity matter. We are now introducing customer-facing claims agent who operate around the clock, delivering an empathic and efficient experience. Each agent specializes within its own line of business, resolving problems faster and settling more claims upfront.
We are deploying advanced severity models to determine early on whether, a claim is AI ready and can be settled within seconds or whether it requires specialist handling or immediate routing to mitigate losses. And finally, we're strengthening data-driven damage mitigation by accessing new data sources and insights through our AI agents who will identify and mitigate damage at an early stage. In total, this is aimed to deliver NOK 110 million in claims cost savings with further structural upside beyond 2028.
Now let me illustrate how our AI claims agent, EVA will handle a travel claim for one of our customers. Our customer travels to Paris to speak at a conference, but her luggage doesn't arrive. After purchasing closing and basic necessities, she contacts [indiscernible] to check whether her expenses are covered. As she starts typing, EVA immediately identifies the customer and the claims type, check policy terms for coverage, scans receipts, checks for fraud and calculate the payout. All intelligently orchestrated in one seamless experience. Our customer then receives an instant settlement with minimal waiting time and with no paperwork for our claims handlers. In our first test, our AI agent achieved 95% accuracy in claims reporting, outperforming traditional customer claims reporting by almost 20%.
Maintaining high quality is a defining trademark of Gjensidige and clear priority in how we develop our solutions. In 2025, we received around 530,000 digitally reported claims, representing substantial potential for further efficiency and quality gains going forward. As you all know, weather patterns are becoming more volatile and recent years have shown how quickly claims volumes can shift. We expect continued volatility and more weather-related events over the coming years.
Our second value driver is, therefore, to advance scalability and resilience in claims, securing operational stability and cost control even with changing conditions. By advancing our forecasting capabilities, we are improving our ability to predict claims volumes and complexity, enabling more proactive capacity planning and stronger operational predictability. At the same time, we are powering AI-enabled workspace that will fundamentally change how our claims expert works. Embedding AI directly into our workforce automates advanced calculation and strengthen decision quality, ensuring more accurate settlements and greater consistency. Scaling proven AI models further reinforces structural cost control by reducing leakage, detecting fraud and optimizing recourse. In total, this is expected to deliver NOK 230 million in claims cost savings towards 2028.
And now let me just give you two examples. Our ability to manage rapid changes in claims volumes will become even more critically, going forward. The storm Amy in 2025 demonstrated clear progress in how we operate during major weather events. Though no two weather events are exactly the same, comparing to [ Hans ] in 2023, we increased first week damage assessment by 80% and settled 83% more claims within the 3 months, while customer satisfaction improved by 3 points. Going forward, claims expert will be able to fully handle and settle claims beyond their primary area of expertise. This fundamentally changed how we operate. By 2028, more than 70% of our claims expert will operate across product areas, allowing us to absorb volatility without proportional increases in headcount.
We have strong expertise in utilizing data. In Norway, we have tripled our claims cost savings in just 3 years from fraud models and our first successful fraud models are now live in Denmark, where we expect fraud-related savings to increase by up to 60% towards 2028. Our ability to scale advanced model across products and geographies has been clearly demonstrated. And looking towards 2028, we'll further leverage AI and advanced analytics, unlock additional value across key leakage-related savings and expecting 15% further increase reduction.
Our third value driver in unlocking further value across the partner ecosystem. We have one of the market's largest and most professional supply network with close to 5,000 suppliers in Norway and 2,500 in Denmark. Our scale gives us strong leverage and preferred access, enabling fast and cost-efficient claims handling and a strong platform for delivering value with our partners. While inflation has moderated, structural changes require continued disciplined focus. We expect claims volumes and complexity to remain elevated with continued structural cost pressures [indiscernible] across segments.
At the same time, the shift to EV technology is reshaping partner economics by reducing routine servicing and [indiscernible] after sales. This reinforces the need for scale, strong cost control and closer collaboration with our partners. Towards 2028, we will enhance our position in the supply network in close collaboration with our skilled partners, we are deploying next-generation partner platform to strengthen integration, improve efficiency and create new services and capabilities across the partner ecosystem. Building on this foundation, we will advance our data models to steer volume to the right partners based on cost performance and sustainability and reduce waiting time for our customers.
In parallel, we will embed proven AI models to further strengthen cost control. Together, these initiatives are expected to deliver NOK 260 million in claim cost savings towards 2028.
Let me give you two examples of how we're going to achieve this. By optimizing our steering models, we have tripled claims cost savings within Danish health insurance from '25 -- to '24 to '25. By steering claims towards high-rated health suppliers, we see further potential to increase cost savings by up to 46% towards 2028. Another example is motor windshield claims, where we aim to mitigate the inflationary pressure on claims costs by using intelligent routing to share volumes to preferred partners with competitive terms. We will also seek to increase the share of repair over replacement. Looking ahead, we will further see an upside potential by scaling this model across product lines and geographies.
We are now live with AI-driven Damage Recognition, transforming motor claims and handling by enabling faster settlements and smarter repairs. The service is embedded directly into the customer journey, instantly detecting and classifying minor visual damages from customer uploaded images. By cross-references, repair standards and historical cost data, it generates accurate real-time repair estimates and automatically steers cases to the network of nearly 100 repair suppliers now specialized in smart repair methods.
Damage assessment that previously took days are now completed in under 70 seconds. Results so far show that we receive full repair estimates in 78% of all cases. And in those, 35% of the damages is suitable for smart repair methods. As the example demonstrates, this delivers considerable savings on smaller motor claims. And because the same approach can be applied across multiple products, it will unlock further cost savings.
To sum it all up, we have set a clear ambition towards 2028 to deliver NOK 600 million in additional claims cost saving with NOK 110 million through [indiscernible] of peace of mind, NOK 230 million through a scalable and resilient operation and NOK 260 million through creating more value in the partner ecosystem. Beyond '28, we'll build structural capabilities that reshape how our claims division operate. We are advancing our data capabilities and developing new claim services to build structural cost advantage, delivering financial impact in the near term while strengthening the competitive position in the long term. Beyond 2028, this enables us to adapt to evolving ecosystem, shape and influence value chain dynamics and sustain structural financial advantages in a rapidly changing market.
In conclusion, our ambition in claim is clear to build claims excellence, a structural source of competitive advantage. And I say thank you for your attention, everyone, and I'll now hand you over to Jostein.
Yes. Thank you, Vivi, and hi, everyone. My name is Jostein Amdal, I'm the CFO of Gjensidige. As you've heard from my colleagues today, we have ambitious initiatives within all our business areas and plan to meet and capitalize on external trends as well as invest in people, technology and improved processes to meet financial targets, and build a platform for long-term value creation to our shareholders.
But first, a quick look at -- back at what we have delivered in the last years. With a few exceptions, we have consistently outperformed our financial targets. We have since the listing in 2010, chosen to focus on the overall profitability measured through the combined ratio, operational cost efficiency and a disciplined use of capital as reflected in our high return on equity. At our previous Capital Market Day in November 2023, we set ambitious targets, and we introduced a new measure, a minimum requirement for insurance service result. The latter to capture that what really matters is profitable growth. Profitable growth, combined with an efficient use of capital, accommodating investments that set the stage for future competitiveness is the recipe for creating value for our owners. And I'm very pleased that we have succeeded in delivering on our goals so far, and I'm confident that we will reach them also in 2026.
We aim to strike the right balance between maintaining a solid capital position and having an efficient capital base. In a world of increased volatility and regulatory demands for robust financial institutions, we managed to stay broadly within our target solvency ratio in the period. We are operating at a solvency level we deem well aligned with a very long-term perspective on running the business and at a reasonable level compared with our peers. At the same time, we have improved our capital situation using hybrid capital and through improvements to the internal model that have been improved by the Norwegian FSA. The combination of high and increasing results and improvements to our capital situation, has facilitated a steadily growing regular dividend and some special dividends over this period, all in line with our dividend policy.
Moving towards 2028, we aim to grow the Insurance Service result to more than NOK 10 billion. As with all the targets announced today, this target is based on the current business, meaning it does not assume any acquisitions and reflects the current levels of inflation, interest and exchange rates. You have here today heard from my colleagues in Technology, Claims, Private and Commercial about our most important initiatives to deliver on our financial targets and from our CEO about our view on the market developments and our overall strategy. To increase the Insurance Service result to more than NOK 10 billion in 2028, we need to deliver on these initiatives also in the short term, although most of them are aimed at improving Gjensidige's long-term competitive position. Compared to where we are today, this means improving most drivers of financial performance. The most important priorities are a continued focus on profit, raising prices at least in line with Claims, further strengthening distribution and pricing efficiency and delivering on our Claims Program.
We rely on scale benefits and the use of best-in-class practices across the group, all supported by investments in technology and our people. Operational KPIs give us clear measurable levers to ensure we deliver on our strategic priorities and financial targets. We have delivered strongly on many of the KPIs announced at our Capital Markets Day in November 2023, as illustrated here and presented during our Q4 2025 reporting. We will continue to report on these throughout this year. I'm particularly pleased with how we have managed to keep a high customer retention in Norway and improve distribution efficiency in private through times of significant premium increases on the back of the claims development over the last couple of years.
Today, we also present our new operational KPIs towards 2028. Customer satisfaction and retention remain as the most relevant customer-oriented measures, and we keep our ambitions to exceed 78% on our customer satisfaction index at the group level. We also maintain the target of retention level above 90% in Norway. In Denmark, we now aim to increase retention to over 86% in 2028. Digitalization and automation will continue to drive quality and cost efficiency. Our digital distribution index tracks progress in digital sales, service interaction with our customers and share of digital customers. The index increased 19% in 2025, and we aim to lift this further by 5% to 10% annually through 2028.
As Rene explained, we are aiming to increase distribution efficiency for Private by 20% by 2028. For commercial, as outlined by Lars, the ambition is to improve distribution efficiency by 12% by 2028, and we just provide a thorough description of our NOK 600 million Claims savings program. Towards 2028, we will focus on straight-through processes for claims as it captures true end-to-end automation and has the greatest impact on both customer experience and cost efficiency. Our target is to reach 55% in Norway in 2028, up from 41% at year-end 2025.
The Private and Commercial segments in Norway remain the cornerstone of our performance. We delivered solid and profitable growth through disciplined pricing, improved sales processes and higher operational efficiency. These segments will, therefore, target combined ratio levels significantly below the group target of 81%. Looking ahead, we see clear opportunities to further strengthen profitability. Our investments in strong distribution capabilities are already paying off through higher hit rates and better retention, and we expect continued gains as cross-selling increases and sales efficiency improves. At the same time, our claims organization continues to excel, delivering faster and more cost-effective settlements and better customer experience. Combined with opportunities to capture additional growth in attractive segments, these initiatives position us well for further profit growth.
In Denmark, the actions we initiated, including focused portfolio improvements, sharper pricing, improved partner distribution and operational streamlining are now reflected in healthy growth and stronger underlying profitability. Together with improved claims performance and higher degrees of digitalization and automation, Denmark continues to move toward the level of returns we expect from our core Nordic market.
Sweden has maintained the strong momentum of recent years with improved underwriting discipline, better pricing models, more digitized processes, strong cost control and enhanced claims handling capabilities, the Swedish business continues to steadily strengthen. We also see solid growth through partners and brokers, who remain an important channels for selected market niches. And with these measures continuing, we expect improvements both in profitability and growth going forward.
As Lars mentioned, Pension remains an excellent complement to our Norwegian non-life business. The shift in customer needs, particularly the growth in accident and health and pension continues to work in our favor. Through our combined offering, we are well positioned to capitalize on this trend. We have low distribution costs and there is significant potential for cross-selling to our existing customers. Due to diversification benefits against non-life insurance, we can grow profitably and capital efficiently within Pension. We target a pretax profit adjusted for the change in the contractual service margin of above NOK 400 million in 2028.
Across all markets, our ambitions remain unchanged to deliver consistent, sustainable profitability built on a strong technological platform. Our migration to more modern systems, broader use of advanced analytics and increasingly automated customer journeys are enabling ongoing efficiency improvements and a more scalable operating model. Our capital strategy is the foundation for how we create shareholder value, maintain financial resilience and allocate investment assets. This slide summarizes the three core pillars of our approach. We aim to deliver attractive and growing dividends in line with our established dividend policy. This sends a strong signal to the market about our profitability and capital strength. At the same time, we balance dividend payouts, with a need to reinvest in the business and maintain a solid equity base.
The second pillar is about ensuring a strong solvency position, which is absolutely critical in our industry where trust and financial robustness are key, but at the same time, optimizing on the cost of the solvency. We actively use reinsurance as a capital management tool. It reduces downside risk from large single claims and catastrophic events and reduces the capital requirement. In addition, we use subordinated debt to optimize our capital structure, giving us flexibility to meet regulatory requirements and adapt to market developments. We've set a target solvency range of 140% to 190%. The floor of this target zone provides us with a solid buffer, which ensures that the regulatory requirements is fulfilled also in a severe stress event in addition to retaining an A rating from Standard & Poor's.
The target range also allows for absorption of normal volatility in the results and the ability to maintain a high and stable stream of regular dividends. It also ensures sufficient capital for organic growth and smaller acquisitions in addition to a buffer for regulatory uncertainty. And finally, we assess our asset allocation, balancing expected investment returns with effect on solvency requirements. The degree of liquidity in the portfolio is high, leaving us with ample options to reallocate to optimize the capital position. The main purpose of our investment activities is to hedge our insurance liabilities and the match portfolio, therefore, consists of fixed income assets with low credit risk. The free portfolio contributes to our results and supports our ability to deliver on our return on equity target. We take moderate investment risk in the free portfolio, with the aim is to generate excess return with controlled downside risk. The portfolio is well diversified, consists of high-quality investments and is predominantly sensitive to changes in the interest rates. The free portfolio is expected to return on average 1 to 2 percentage points above money market rates, depending on risk premium and the level of risk taken.
Fixed income yields have risen significantly over the past 2 years. And at year-end, the yield on our fixed income investments in the free portfolio was 4%. The investments in the match portfolio have an average spread of approximately 30 basis points. We expect yields to remain at these levels for some time, supporting our financial targets in the coming years. Over the last 2 years, we have generated NOK 15.4 billion in surplus capital through operating Solvency II earnings and returns in the free portfolio. We paid and proposed NOK 16.6 billion in return to our shareholders as dividends. During this period, in addition to funding organic growth, we've used capital to strengthen our position in Denmark through the acquisition of [indiscernible] in Sweden through Warman and within home seller insurance in Norway through [indiscernible] Issuance of new Tier 1 and Tier 2 loans has also combined -- contributed positively to the surplus capital and is an effective tool to optimize our solvency position and capital structure.
In addition, approval of some parts of the internal model has had a positive effect, especially the approval of the windstorm model in 2024, which increased the capital surplus by NOK 1.3 billion. We started our Pension business from scratch in 2006 and now have a well-run operation, capitalizing on the growth in the defined contribution pension market and delivering solid returns on equity stand-alone. It is strategically important for the group, complementing our customer offering within employee benefits, as explained by Lars. An important point financially is that the growth here is very capital efficient for the group. As we show here, the capital requirement for pension at year-end 2025 from the group perspective was NOK 1.3 billion lower than the stand-alone requirements. And the contribution to the group's surplus capital as measured by the difference between own funds and the capital requirement was almost NOK 2 billion. Since 2020, this contribution to the group's surplus capital has increased by almost NOK 1.3 billion, thus supporting our increased dividends in the period. And if you also take into account the midpoint of the solvency target range of 165%, the surplus contribution is approximately NOK 0.9 billion over these years.
As you know, the approved version of our partial internal model differs from our own model due to the calibration of several key parameters. We believe that our own model reflects the best estimate of risk, and we therefore use it for internal management purposes, such as capital allocation for profit targets, reinsurance assessments and setting investment limits. The approved model is used for setting the overall capital targets. Our ambition to have our own version approved, but this will take time. The remaining differences relate to the modeling of correlation between market risk and underwriting risk, prudential margins and the calibration of certain lines of business. The FSA has previously approved several minor recalibrations and further applications within all three areas are planned for 2026. If all remaining differences were to be approved, the capital requirement will be reduced by an additional NOK 1.9 billion. The prudential margin for underwriting risk represents the largest share of this, while the other two are roughly equal in size.
Gjensidige operates in attractive markets. The Nordics continue to stand out for stability, both economically and politically. Inflation is gradually moving down, and although the interest rate outlook varies somewhat between the countries, the overall picture remains constructive for our industry. We thrive in markets characterized by cost-efficient and rational companies, integrated value chains, strong brands and high trust between customers and insurance providers. Against this backdrop, the ambitions you've heard today across Technology, Private, Commercial and Claims position us well for the years ahead. We continue to focus on profitable growth in all our segments, combined with improved operational performance across the value chain and more satisfied customers with deeper relationships with Gjensidige. These ambitions are supported by a modern technology platform, strong analytics, high-quality data and highly capable teams. With this foundation, we are well placed to continue delivering attractive returns to our shareholders.
And with this, I'll hand the word back to Mitra for some Q&A.
Thank you, Stein. We will now spend a few minutes to get ready for our Q&A session. All right. We're now ready for our Q&A session. With me on the stage here are today's presenters, and we also have other members of Gjensidige's Group management team and our Head of Sustainability, present in the room and ready to answer your questions.
[Operator Instructions]
2. Question Answer
[indiscernible Two questions if i may. The first on the assumed premium growth for 2028, a combined ratio below 81% for a NOK 10 billion underwriting result implies roughly 7% premium growth per year. Could you decouple that? How much is assumed coming from pricing efforts? How much is volume growth through either Home Insurance or Life and Health? That's the first question.
And the second question is about the costs in Claim Savings Program. Obviously, very strong results on the former target, the NOK 800 million became NOK 1.1 billion. Was that due to sort of a conservative approach when you assume that? And if so, is the same cautiousness applied to the new NOK 600 million target? Or is that more realistically based?
Yes. On the premium growth, our main starting point is that we price at least in line with the claims development. And that is -- we've given you some indications, especially on the Norwegian business going forward on the main products, Motor and Property that we see a claims inflation picture going forward of, say, 3% to 6% or 4% to 6% depending on products, with a wider range for Motor. And that should be kind of your starting point.
We also need to mitigate changes in frequency in Motor, especially where we see a still continuing claims frequency development, but much more moderate than what we saw in 2023 and '24. And we said that we expect some 1% to 2% increase in claims frequency for Motor. Then you have some more volatility on the Property side. But long term, we do think that climate risk will drive especially water-related claims also on the Property side. And we take all these factors into account and try to balance our pricing efforts accordingly. And then we will not provide you with any specific guiding on volume versus price for the longer term, but kind of for the short term, this is our assessment.
Yes. The second question is about the claims program, first phase. I think we had a very good start. A lot of things happened during the -- from '23 to '24, '25 when it comes to claims frequency. And I also think that we did a successful investments when doing all kind of automation update agreements with our supplier network and so on. So going forward, having in mind that '28 is actually 2 years ahead, we are building our claims operations where we are aiming for a great success also beyond '28. So I would not say that we have been conservative in setting the ambition, but I'm very confident that we will reach the ambition and that we have a great pace going forward also after '28.
And if I can thank you for the question. I love that. I asked the same question when we did the calculations. And I think the difference between the target we set in 2023 and now it's not that we're conservative, but it's the structural cost improvements, that we are heading for and not just the efficiency gains.
So we want to run rate, an early run rate from 2028 that keeps on providing strong financial results. And then when you're working with data capabilities, the way we are now in claims, we are at a very advanced level now. We are very interested in having the right quality all the time. So a bit strict on the discipline, before we scale. But when we scale and when we see the quality is high, as you saw with the 95%, then we're still that let's get 96%, let's get 98% because we will not hit the numbers right. And when we have that in place and scaling, then sometimes we get even higher effects that we could calculate early on. Yes. Does that make sense? So maybe we'll -- yes, we'll give you good results again.
Hans from Danske Bank Markets. First question is on sort of the updated targets and especially then on the cost ratio. It's always a bit difficult to look at cost ratio because the sort of mix is premiums and nominal costs. So my question is, if you exclude the write-off you've done in 2025, you're not very far off the ratio that you're saying you will be at in 2028. How should we look at in terms of what you've been saying in operational efficiency investments and such? How much of that is sort of harvesting the cost improvements you've already done? How much sort of nominal cost are you expecting to -- how much are you expecting to increase nominal costs going forward? And the last part is how much of it is sort of defensive investments versus kind of growth investments in especially the markets where you're smaller today?
Second question is on the updated return on equity target and how that changes your sort of participation choices going forward there, especially considering private Denmark and Sweden, where you're much smaller than the other places. Sort of does it change your thinking around there? I guess we didn't hear so much about those two markets in the presentation today.
I can probably start and then continue with that. When it comes to cost ratio, I think it's important to have in mind that we believe in kind of uncertain times. Many things happening now during technology, AI, there are many good and probably many bad opportunities as well, when it comes to investments. Going forward, we'd like to have some room to do the right investments to improve the business going forward, also to have growth and more efficiency to come after '28.
So when we now talk a lot about improving distribution efficiency, talk about improving the claims processes, it also gives us room to reinvest to prepare Gjensidige for what's coming next beyond '28. So I agree with you, if you look at the ambition regarding cost ratio and compared to what we have achieved during the last couple of years, but also having in mind that it gives us room and some kind of flexibility to what we can do next. But then saying that, we are not going to invest in things that we are not sure will create value. So we will still be very disciplined when it comes to cost, very disciplined when it comes to use of capital.
Return on equity target and what to do with the business in Denmark and Sweden. I think during the last couple of years, we have moved from being a large Norwegian player with some kind of business in Denmark and Sweden. We have sold our business in the Baltics and raised our focus on being a Nordic player, and that's important going forward as well. Our strategy is to be a good player in the Nordics. We are having a lot of ambition to improve our business in both Denmark and Sweden. I think we have achieved a lot during the last couple of years. You look at the numbers, both when it comes to exchanging operational excellence, exchanging competence, exchanging skills. We see that we have improved results in Denmark. We have great results coming from the small business in Sweden as well. And that's a very good starting point for the years to come when we are seeking for both new opportunities and also improving the business further.
And as I tried to highlight on my slide on the segment profitability targets, we do accept and expect combined ratio targets in -- outside of Norway, which are higher than the 81% that we set at the group level. And then, of course, the Norwegian business, which is the cornerstone of all measures here are targeting much stricter profitability targets.
But still, it is value creating because it does return share dividend capacity. It does actually give a higher return on capital than any reasonable capital return targets.
Oliver [indiscernible], Carnegie. I have two questions as well. One is easy and the other one is, might be impossible. The easy one first. Since you have a solvency range and not a fixed solvency target and you're so close to your top of that solvency range, I was just wondering what kind of world should we look for in which you would go for 140% solvency? If that is even a level you actually see as reasonable since it is part of your target range.
And then for the impossible question, on autonomous vehicles, which has been a trend for some while now, it seems to me like it's going to be something in the commercial segment for this going forward, if it happens. And in Norway, most of the companies, as you highlight, are very small. It's SMEs for 99% of all companies. What kind of company would this sort of become in the future? Is it going to be an industrial segment, large corporate segment? And how do you sort of position yourself given that Gjensidige is so strong in the small corporate segment?
Yes. I'll probably take this one and then I'll let my colleague take the latter part. No, we have a quite a broad range when it comes to solvency. Gjensidige has a very solid capital position. It's normal to have some kind of flexibility. You could have probably some macroeconomic effect impacts, which will also hit the solvency position. You could have -- we have to have some room to do minor bolt-ons like we did with [indiscernible], like we did in Denmark a couple of years ago, which from quarter-to-quarter and from time to time gives some kind of flexibility, which also leads to having a range, when it comes to the solvency position.
Saying that, we are a very capital disciplined approach to what we do. We are seeking to reduce the capital requirement due to continually improving our internal model and having a good dialogue with the FSA as well. So it's definitely a very capital disciplined organization, but having some kind of room and flexibility to meeting having buffer for some external impacts, which could happen in an unpredictable world and some flexibility when it comes to bolt-ons. Autonomous cars, probably Rene could say something about the car fleet and what's happening because before letting you getting -- we probably expect that the pace of change within mobility to be -- happen earlier, if we go a couple of years back to having a larger proportion of the car fleet to be more on the commercial side instead of the private segment.
In that period, we have built up great relationships with the OEMs directly. If you look at our distribution, we have improved and expanded our relationship with local car dealers in Norway, especially. So we are very connected to what's happening within the mobility industry. Rene?
Yes. So Geir covered most of it. But what's important for us is to be an attractive local partner. The OEMs are huge. The Nordics are pretty small to them. So what we are working also when we invested in REDGO was to be a relevant partner because if we're going to work with autonomous cars, pricing in regardless of how you drive, we need to have the partnerships with the big OEMs.
So our Mobility strategy is being a local relevant partner, being able to get the deals with the OEMs. And we have already have tested, we have tested how we price on driving behaviors, and we have discussed this with some of our partners and tested it for a while. We haven't realized any products yet, but we now -- we know how to do it when we find the right partners who says that they would like to have an insurance product for autonomous cars and with the telematic part.
And if you look at the development in the last couple of years, what we have seen is that we have been impaired with the increasing claims frequency regarding Motor. But in addition, we have also seen that the claims cost for new cars are higher. And when you gradually will introduce autonomous cars, you could probably expect that more technology, more sensors and even more expensive cars to repair, when something happen.
So -- and you know Nordic driving conditions when it's foggy, it will take time probably before you have licensed Level 4, Level 5 autonomous cars and then having a greater impact on what's being a larger proportion of our car fleet in the Nordics. So -- but we are doing whatever we can do to be prepared for that kind of development. And one of the key message is that the dialogue and relationship with the OEMs are important.
Yes. And we have waited for -- we are talking about for [indiscernible] that they will come more cars from the private portfolio over to the commercial portfolio with the fleet, but we can't see that in our numbers so far. It's a good question. What kind of company will Gjensidige be in the commercial market for the future when we are focusing on SMEs.
And you saw in my presentation that 99% of the companies in the Norwegian market is SMEs when you're doing a cap at 100 employees and NOK 100 million in revenues. So it's more or less the whole market. From my perspective, it's important for a company as Gjensidige to have customers of all sizes in our preferred industries, a few large accounts, many medium-sized, but a lot of small companies.
You hear a lot of presentation, I think almost everybody talking about the SME market. Everybody want to expand there, and there's many reasons why we want that. But if you're only approaching the SME market, you will have a random portfolio because it's all the whole market. So from our perspective, it's where to play within the SME market, which is important. So when we are working with the SME market, we're looking at different preferred industries. We're looking at the pockets in these industries.
We're looking at the size of different companies within these industries. And we see where do we have -- what kind of profitability, where do we have what kind of market share. And then the most important thing. One thing, is to understand the market, see the market and know where do you want to play in the market. But the most important thing is to have the ability to steering the operation, steering the activity in your operation, in your distribution against those -- into those pockets where you want to build the portfolio. But that is how we have succeeded over years, how we have strengthened the profitability over years is that we're steering our activity into those areas, into those segments, into those products where we and how we want to build the portfolio.
And when we are looking, sometimes I have the question, what are the new areas you want to build, where do you want to grow going forward? From my perspective, it is important to grow where you know the business. And for us, still, you have seen our development within the market, in the commercial market over the last 6, 7 years in Norway. We have increased the market share from 28% to 31% approximately, at the same time, improving the profitability. And we have done this to steering the operation within those pockets where it's profitability. And that is important for us going forward as well.
So when you have this on one side and combining this with what I was talking about in my presentation, how we are pruning the portfolio, how you're steering the portfolio optimization, then you're combining activity management, portfolio steering in an efficient way. And then you will have a company in Gjensidige going forward that have the capabilities, that have the capabilities to improve the profitability and building a portfolio in control. That's the important answer on that.
I think the next question was Thomas behind there.
Thomas Svendsen from SEB. So two questions. First on cost cutting and on [indiscernible] there operational improvements. Could you share with us the size of sort of the cost base that this operational or cost-cutting measures applies, so you can sort of get a feeling of the percentage of the cost base?
And secondly, on your advanced underwriting processes. Could you say something about for a certain vehicle, what is the lowest price, and sort of a high price versus the average for the same vehicle, but with a different driver? And also on the placing of the vehicle, the high and low level there? And possible on the combination of the geographical location of a certain vehicle, and the difference between the high and low price versus the average?
Okay. On the cost base, we're talking about on the cost expense ratio of 12% and the cost base we're talking about there is in round numbers, NOK 5 billion, which is then the cost base, not including the costs used for handling claims, which are recorded through the claims ratio. If you add those, there is approximately NOK [ 2.5 ] billion more. That includes everything, wages, IT and whatever. And you'll see that from the annual accounts where we have a note on this. And that is the base really.
But as we talked about in the previous question, we are at the level of, say, around this. But what we need to do is to invest in all these initiatives that will gain -- give us the long-term competitive position that we are talking about there. That is our important -- And we do this within the below 81% combined ratio above NOK 10 billion in insurance result in 2028. So it won't be that we are kind of going to squander money to just to stay at the same cost ratio level. It is designated investments to improve the long-term competitive position within the below 81% combined ratio target.
Next question, yes?
That's about motor insurance.
And I don't think I can answer the question, but you asked how much does it differ for the same type of car, and between the cars, and the same type of customers and between the customers? It differs a lot. But I don't think we have any numbers from a car to car, it's surprisingly how much it can differ. And also within the same customer having different cars, it's a really big difference. So we have -- we have customer pricing and market pricing to sometimes adjust it a bit. Because some of the times, if we do straight out risk pricing, the difference is pretty high. So then we go to the customer pricing, see which is the most important customers, which are the most loyal customers and then we adjust it in order to take customer segment or different markets. Yes, that was a boring answer, I guess.
Probably Geir can give you some more precise numbers afterwards.
Christian [indiscernible] here. I have a question on the cost. So you presented a number of measures that you've taken to reduce costs and at least increase efficiency. And still it seems like your operating expenses have increased quite a lot in nominal terms. I'm not referring to the relative number, which is obviously influenced by the high premium inflation. So if you could just expand a bit on why costs are up in spite of all your measures taken?
And secondly, I was quite comforted by your comment that your non-Norwegian operations does not dilute, or at least is not below a certain level on returns on capital. If you could share a number, that would be highly appreciated.
Sounds like me. Yes, normal costs have increased. We do see if you divide our cost base, it's basically -- it's more than half of that is salary costs, and we decrease the number of persons in the core insurance business over time. But then, of course, we do have outside the core insurance business, both in the Baltics and in the mobility space, quite a lot of quite people densitive business. But over time, the -- even including salaries, wage cost will shrink as a share of the total. But what we see also is that there is a large increase in IT cost inflation for IT services or IT cost is much higher than the wage increases, and that's behind much of the increase there.
Going forward, I think this will be -- this trend will only be strengthened given the measures we've taken and the KPIs we have introduced in terms of distribution efficiency, digitalization and automation, this trend will be strengthened in the -- yes, not so long term really.
And then numbers on the return on kind of allocated capital per segment is not something we have provided for the market. We've gotten that question sometimes. But I mean, given the numbers that we have produced, I think it's fairly obvious that these are fairly okay returns on allocated capital if you kind of just do simple measures. And we use this for internal management, but have decided not to make that public for the market.
Vash?
Vash Gosalia from Goldman Sachs. I have two questions. One on the cost again. Here, probably a little bit of accounting and a clarification. One, how much are you going to invest to get the NOK 600 million savings? And would you be capitalizing that? Or is there -- would you be expensing that? So just some clarification on that.
The second one is a little bit on utilization of capital. So you've sort of suggested you're open towards doing M&A. But can you share with us, one, the region in which you would like to do M&A and potentially the size, just to get a sense of what is it that we can expect?
Yes, I can start, and then I think Vivi [indiscernible] can work together on that one on the side. First of all, these investments that we will do to reap the benefits within the claims are [ 200% ] more or less expended, not capitalized. The main thing that we are capitalizing is related to the core system and the big long-term projects there. Otherwise, we're really expensing most of it. And the actual investments needed is for the NOK 600 million.
I would say we're very cheap. We have already strong capabilities in place. So right now, it's the manpower, utilizing data, advancing the technology. So we have the things we need.
We're talking about kind of teams and [indiscernible] going on and just step-by-step improving the processes, utilizing all the existing technology within AI, and that is the main driver, I would say, for the NOK 600 million in terms and also changing processes is much more about how people work rather than investing in technology as such.
Yes. Second one about M&A opportunities. We are focusing on what's happening in the Nordics. That's also the reason for selling the business we have in the Baltics. Outside Norway, purely P&C business, that's our core competence. That's our core approach. You know also that the market in the Nordics when it comes to P&C business are very consolidated. You have some long tail with smaller businesses in Denmark, but then you have more larger companies. And indicates that the market is consolidated.
So our core focus on a daily basis is how to do the operational improvements, how to improve our business, how to make sure that we seek growth opportunities within the markets we know, within the customer base we have and the customer base we know. And I think during the next couple of years and after beyond '28, we are seeking very interesting growth opportunities, which are also profitable.
Today [ mentioned ] about what's happening within the housing market and how we can improve our approach there. Life and health, that's increasing demand, which is within the insurance space, but very interesting. And as you know, in Norway, we have a Pension business, 11% market share. But if you look at our P&C customer portfolio, we see that 27% of our P&C customer in the commercial segments in Norway have also bought occupational pension from Gjensidige. And that has actually had a very good growth during the last couple of years. And we are now investing more in distribution capacity and in solutions and concepts to actually grow that business further.
This is capital efficient, as also Jostein showed due to all the diversification effects in the group as well when it comes to capital requirement for pension business. So I would say that, yes, we have a focus on P&C in the Nordics and a little bit broader approach in Norway due to our pension business. But from day-to-day, it's more on the operational side, how to improve our own business.
Herman?
Herman Zahl from Pareto Securities. First, one question on data. I think it's to [indiscernible] if I interpreted the slide correctly, Slide 25, you said that you will increase the amount of data used for pricing by 5% to 10% over the 2, 3 coming years. So could you just be more specific about what type of data that would be, and if you already have that data, or you would have to gather it in those years?
Yes, I can start to answer and then I think also [indiscernible] can assist. But what I referred to is the way we are now feeding the pricing models. And with the new data infrastructure, we will not increase by 5% to 10%, but by 5 to 10x. So today, we have a lot of composite data points. For instance, the customer score goes into the pricing model to calculate what is the right price. With the new structure, we can use a lot of individual data points that can also explain even finer variations in the pricing, if it makes sense. It doesn't look like it makes sense.
[indiscernible], can you elaborate a little bit on the different kind of data streams that we are connecting to the new pricing architecture?
Yes, of course. I think it was a really good answer, [ Johan ]. But of course, we're using more customer-related data also into the risk pricing, not only the product by product, but also using more behavioral data when it comes to the actual risk pricing and more customer -- on more customer level. And looking forward, we do need to also look into more real-time data, of course, and more external sources and how to automate that even further.
And in addition, I might add because we're so related, [indiscernible], we are also gathering new data from generative AI. So before you had the very structural data sources and now the more unstructural data sources as writing and pictures, you gain a lot of more information than you did before. And taking those data and utilizing them, that could be for mitigating damage, or it could be to optimizing risk profiles. So I would say that's somewhat new as well.
Okay. And then just on sort of longer term, how do you see the risk of more efficient AI-driven price comparison tools? Or if you don't use that as a risk, what are the sort of structural barriers remaining in place and also just some perspectives on the private segment of corporate, I guess it could differ a bit.
I'll probably start and Rene probably continue. Yes. I think it's -- where we stand now, it's more interesting to talk about AI when it comes to distribution instead of autonomous cars. If today, especially in the U.K., but other places as well, some examples in the Nordics, you have the traditional pricing comparison models and [indiscernible]. They are giving the customer the best price for a specific product.
When you use ChatGPT or a generative AI model, you will definitely change that kind of concept. You will -- as a customer, you will get help to understand what kind of product you need, what kind of -- and you get help to get a good answer on your need and requirement when it comes to insurance. For Gjensidige and other providers, it's not only price that matters. Now using these models, you will probably see that our way of doing processes, claims handling processes, our quality when it comes to our core processes, when it comes to terms and conditions, when it comes to customer complaints and so on, you will definitely have a broader aspect on how you do the kind of assessment when comparing different providers.
So for Gjensidige, we are in the customer dialogue, we are always talking about price in addition to terms and conditions and what actually it means to be a customer Gjensidige. I think that is helpful to use AI models instead of the more traditional pricing comparison models, which are -- tends to be very pricing focused. I think that ChatGPT and other distribution models based on AI will look at the whole product and actually look at how the different providers could give the right offering to the customers.
Yes. So there are two opportunities. The one, the customer journey will change. It will be more cost efficient. So that's an opportunity for us, which we believe that we're well prepared for. And the second one, which is, I think, is just as important is that these bots will be an adviser who can advise to a much greater extent on quality. And we believe that, that is to our advantage. Being able to differentiate the bots will to a much greater extent, be able to pick up that information, which is more difficult for a normal customer. So being able to differentiate, have more quality in our products and services, being able to have more frequent and relevant contact with our customers, that's important in order to take advantage of the AI revolution and the AI bots. So quality is a huge opportunity for us.
You had a question about the difference between the private market and commercial market. And Johan talked about it in your presentation, data must be available. And if you're looking at the private market and the commercial market, the big difference is the maturity within the digital solutions. We are one of the most mature players in our -- in the commercial market, and we have really good solutions when it comes to working with renewals, doing service at your cover and you can buy a few products.
But there is not that many competitors that having solutions that can drive everything straight through and that you can have everything available. Does mean that you have to have an API to the core to drive everything through. But on the advisory side, I think that is the first point where we can see it on the commercial side. So I think it will be a little bit slower to see in the commercial market.
Carl Lofthagen from Berenberg. Two quick questions. The first one is a short one. Just on Private Denmark in Slide 31, you're showing improving retention in 2025, but declining customer satisfaction, which seems counterintuitive. Just wondering, is this kind of a blip? Or did you see that customer satisfaction decline just, I guess, across the market as a whole?
And then the second question is on the competitive landscape. I mean if I look at market share developments in Norway and Sweden, where the data is reasonably up to date, we're seeing kind of smaller players increasingly take market share from the incumbents, admittedly from a much kind of smaller base. But I guess just wondering how did you think about the competitive landscape when setting these targets?
If you start with -- yes, the first one. In Denmark, it's been a drop in the industry average, which has been pretty brutal due to much of the price increases. We have seen the same in Norway, but it's been a bit more brutal in Denmark. So it's an industry average actually.
When it comes to competitive landscape, starting with Norway, in the Norwegian market, you have a couple of major players, large players, which are disciplined when it comes to pricing. They are -- something happening about inflation claims frequency, you see an instant reaction and activities when it comes to terms and conditions and pricing, which actually meets the actual development.
You have probably one player in Norway at the moment, which are more aggressive on the -- and taking market share. From our side, we have a very stable position. Over the last years, we have improved our position when it comes to commercial segment. Last quarter, we actually improved our position in the private market as well. So we are very satisfied with the position we have, and we have managed to combine keeping the right business volume, keeping opportunities to improved our ambition when it comes to cross-selling, and we are seeking new opportunities like housing, where we can have seen growth in the past, and that's what we focus on going forward. But my impression about the market in Nordic has been -- yes, we have shifts when it comes to market share, but not a concern for us as a larger player, how did the market develop.
In Sweden, we are a smaller player. We have a great opportunity to improve the business, but we have an unknown brand name. So we are seeking partners to develop the business. We are seeking -- using co-branding in some situations as well. And also I have to admit during the last couple of years, the core focus in Sweden has been to, more or less a turnaround to improve the profitability and to make a robust, solid and a profitable business in Sweden, which we have now and have a very interesting position as a more challenging player.
Next question, yes.
[indiscernible] from [indiscernible] Securities. I have one or maybe two questions. Can I do two? Perfect. Just a follow-up on [indiscernible] question on the solvency range. I believe in your last supervisory report from the FSA, they kind of argued that the lower end should be 150, not 140 after your partial internal model. Do you think if you get more of the internal model approved and your nominal requirement goes down, will the FSA kind of push for a higher percentage floor? That's the first question.
And then the second to Johan, I guess, just on the core system in Norway, Lars talked a lot about the benefits in Denmark. But your assessment is that it's better to keep the original systems in Norway and Sweden. And just kind of wondering, is it the risk part or the reward part of the assessment that changed to make you do that?
Starting with solvency, solvency range. The legal requirement is 100%. So -- and that should probably be the starting point for the discussion and considerations. Going to 140, we have still a good capital position. It's -- but comparing to the peers in the Nordics and in Europe, 140 should be a lower and weaker position. But still, we run a business which is capital efficient. We have great opportunity to -- quite quick build capital, if necessary, due to high premium income and definitely a broad spectrum of capital-light products. So we are not share any conclusion on what to do if we get a larger part of the internal model approved, but then it should be a kind of consideration between the management and our Board to do that. But at the moment, the legal requirement is 100%. So that's the starting point for the discussion.
Okay. And on the core system, I'll try to be short because I could speak about that for hours. I think it's a mix of risk and reward. You have to remember that the situation in Denmark when we made a decision to go to a new core system, a new cloud-based core system, the EBIT that both of these guys are benefiting from now. We were in a situation where we had a lot of different legacy systems and the main core system was also approaching end of life, and it wasn't our own system. It was a vendor that provided it. So we didn't have full control over how to modernize it. So the decision in Denmark was that we need to get out of that system, and we need to consolidate all of these different smaller systems because it's weighing heavily on our cost position.
And in terms of consolidating into one core system, it's even more important to do it in one market because you have to respond to every new regulatory requirement, or every new kind of customer that wants to see all the data. You have to do the integration with every system if you have multiple systems in one market. So it was more urgent there to consolidate into fewer systems.
Whereas in Norway, we have a very well working core system. It seems like the platform it is built on will have a longer life expectancy than we thought previously. And we are also -- in the way we are modernizing this system, we are actually taking out small components where we need to do something in a different way, or we need a more modern approach. We take that out of the mainframe environment and into a cloud-based platform. So we are able to get some of these advantages of a new and more modern system without doing the full core replacement. So I think that's the kind of the main difference in thinking between the Denmark and the Norway situation.
Okay. Next question, Thomas, you had a second one?
Thomas from SEB again. So a question to the Norwegian motor segment, and sort of the market there towards 2028. Are there any changes we should be aware of, cheaper cars or more expensive cars, or larger cars, or smaller cars? Or is it a steady projection, the best thing we can do?
It's pretty steady. Our volume comes from long-term agreements with a lot of dealers. That's our most important growth factor. And when it comes to cars, I think the EVs is now a pretty stable portfolio. So we don't see any big changes during the next couple of years when it comes to types of cars. But there, of course, there are coming new producers and new cars that we know a bit less, and they -- we're pretty strict on pricing on all the new cars, not only because of the cars, but because of the whole value chain when it comes to workshops, spare parts, et cetera. So we are pretty strict if there -- if they enter new brands into the market.
All right. Perhaps we can switch to questions from the web. We can start with [indiscernible] from KBW. With regards to your AI and your technological improvements you're planning and in light of the recent changes to your technological platform in Denmark and Norway and the pension business, what would it mean to integrate these new tools into the existing systems? Would that be difficult?
Yes. So I think actually one of the earlier questions illustrated a little bit how we're thinking about this because with the new capabilities like AI and new automation opportunities, the way we are working with technology is that we want to provide a platform that makes it easy to both test and experiment, but also to deploy these new tools. So the way we is able to get a lot of this NOK 600 million without doing deep IT investments is because we have provided a platform on which you can basically run models and algorithms, and get access to the data you need to make these things happen.
So the way we are working with a more kind of layered approach and a platform approach in the IT infrastructure is to avoid having these deep integrations that are costly and complex.
So what we're doing is that if he gives us a platform for building a bot, if he gives us the right data, then a lot of the organization are able to build the bots. In our customer service, more and more of the advisers are trying to build bots themselves. So we are able to use a greater share of our employees, building bots, being close to the customer, having the right competence as long as we get the platform and the data.
And the guardrails.
And to add to that, we've already proven that we can scale models very easily, not just across product areas, but also across geographies. And what we do when we use the scalable architecture that Johan speaks about is that we customize the data to different regions, countries, customers and so on and so forth. And in there lies the, you could say, the symphony between technology and business now. Adding more data and leveraging it by scalable infrastructure. It's very exciting. And that's why you see those beautiful ramp-ups and hockey sticks in our numbers sometimes because when we scale it, it always -- it often has very good surprises with it. And that is also why the claims ambition is very ambitious towards 2028. Yes.
Thank you. All right. The next question is from Ken [ Liu ] from UBS, partly related to what we've answered here before, but I'll read it anyway. Just on the upper end of the solvency range, I think you said in the past that you would revisit the solvency target zone if more internal model changes got approved. You have had a couple of approvals since the last CMD, but have kept the range the same. Have there been any changes to the way you manage solvency?
And then we have another one afterwards.
I would say we regularly, at least annually do visit the solvency range and what should be the target, and we visited all times that they have got changes to the model, and we stayed with this level so far. And then whatever happens, as Geir mentioned in the previous question, if we get other parts approved in the future, that will be a decision for the future when we get these approvals.
Thank you. Also, the second one for you, Jostein. How are you thinking about the upcoming debt calls in 2026?
Yes. We have the first one in April, I believe, early April, and that is really already refinanced from the previous issuance in last fall. And then the second one is in October, and we'll decide when we get there whether we will refinance, but it's our obvious intention to call the loans at the first call date that is customary in the industry.
Great. Okay. Back to the room, [indiscernible]?
[ Simon ] from [ ABG ] again. On your 2026 targets.
I appreciate you keeping them unchanged. Just on your thinking for doing so. Obviously, the consensus expectations are well above, and I appreciate you're not setting targets after the expectations. But is there an element of cautiousness given sort of the start of the year? Or did you just choose to focus on the new targets for '28 and keeping the '26 targets unchanged? And on that, do you have any comments on the developments year-to-date?
For the last question, I have to you have to be patient and wait for the first quarter when we announce that. We decided early when we started preparation for this Capital Markets Day that we keep with the targets we have for '26, not to come in a situation where we are guiding to where we end because now we are more on the short term. So we haven't gone into that consideration now. And yes, I think that's the basic answer on that one.
And just following up on that then. On the trajectory towards the NOK 10 billion, is it fair to assume that your targets are based on sort of a linear improvement? Or is there any factors pointing to any sort of hockey stick or a front-end loaded profile?
It's -- if we look at the development since '23, it's definitely from '23, it has actually been front-loaded. So it tends to be a little bit front-loaded as we see it. But -- and that's due to all the pricing measures and everything we have done in last year, which will have also an impact in '26 as well. But we are having so many different types of measures improving the way we are doing business that we will see gradual effects throughout the whole period.
Anything to add, Jostein?
No. I mean, as you saw from my slide, we are at 7.5% in 2025, excluding the write-down of the [indiscernible] system. We are approximately at 7.5% at least. And that points that we have with the premium growth numbers that we showed you in the fourth quarter of 2025, it means we have quite a well good speed into 2026, which should bode for a fairly okay profit improvement in 2026, and then the accumulation of all these measures that we have talked about today, which are already underway, and they will continue to improve these results.
And importantly, as I tried to stress on the presentation, what we're doing today, or these years, is to build the foundation for profits after 2028 as well. We are investing in things that will have a continuous improvement after 2028, even though we forced to stop at NOK 600 million in 2028. There is improvements going on after that.
Yes.
I think that's the claims there is a good example on an area where we can expect more to come after '28. So -- and many things happening at the moment, doing new investments using AI, very much more extensive and also being precise to how we can improve our way of doing business, which will gradually have an effect, but that will continue beyond '28. Absolutely.
You have a question Youdish?
Youdish from Autonomous Research. I've got a few questions. The first one is on your combined ratio target. So you reported 83.4% combined ratio last year. If you adjust for the one-offs, even large claims, you're already at 81.5%. So I was wondering to what extent, if you factor in the price increases you have implemented recently are still implementing, and the claims savings you are targeting, you are -- some have suggested that you're very strongly positioned to be significantly better than 81% already. So I was wondering to what extent is that just pure conservatism versus you planning to possibly sacrifice margin improvement and maintain top line growth? That's the first question.
And then secondly, more on the long-term front, again, going back to your comments on autonomous cars and AI risk around distribution. On autonomous cars, you said you're in dialogue with the OEMs. But a lot of these -- the companies that are involved in this are big tech firms, large manufacturers. So how do you ensure you've got an early front foot in this space when this technology starts to be deployed in Norway?
And then on the distribution side, you mentioned with the chat bots, they're going to advise also about quality, not just about pricing. So does that mean that how do you ensure Gjensidige again is there when somebody searches for insurance goods, how do you ensure that the service quality and the claims handling potential of the company is actually available for customers to see on these new platforms?
I can start with the first one. Combined ratio, 81%, if that's a conservative approach, [indiscernible]. A couple of topics I'd like to mention. On the cost side, which is the part of the combined ratio, we are saying that we'd like to have -- we will have some flexibility, some room for investments going forward. We have to build profitable, but also seeking growth for what comes next after '28. And that's the part of how we think about the cost ratio, approximately 12% gives that kind of room.
We have also showed a couple of pockets, or segments, or areas where we could [ see ] growth, which should be profitable, like the housing, as mentioned, life and health, which is interesting. If you look at health insurance in Norway, we have a market share of 25% in Denmark, close to 10%. So we are one of the leading companies in the Nordics when it comes to health insurance, which is a very good starting platform to improve and grow that business within a market which will definitely have high growth going forward.
And we have done a lot within our health insurance product, both with the supply network and introducing retention levels and so on to make that robust and profitable. So -- and I would not say that saying 81 -- below 81%, which is the target, not equal to 81%, below 81% when it comes to combined ratio. It's not a situation where we are giving away margins to put more pressure on growth areas, but it's a combination where we have some room to do investments and dig into areas which will grow the business and make a greater [indiscernible] after and beyond '28.
It seems to be Rene again.
Yes. When it comes to the autonomous cars and the OEMs, of course, these -- some of them are huge. But we see that we actually are a bit interesting due to the high numbers of EVs, and that makes the Nordic a pretty interesting place to test. I had a meeting with Toyota yesterday, which we are a co-insurer with. And they were pretty clear on that Scandinavia and especially Norway is really interesting when it comes to testing, and they would like to test more with us.
So it's -- Nordic is pretty interesting due to the EVs, and it's just important to us to have a few strong enough relationships. So we are early in the testing, building capabilities together with partners. I guess that's the answer on the partnership and the EVs and autonomous vehicles.
And there was a question about quality versus pricing. I think it's at least two-folded. One is to actually build APIs, making our products, services and the quality in our offering available for the AI platforms, making sure that if they are looking for different kind of services, looking for the quality in our offering, they are able to find it. So there's a lot of details in how to make that available for the bots, and we are working on that at the moment.
And the second part is making sure that what they find is differentiating us. like, for instance, the alarm service when the bot sees that you have a house insurance in Gjensidige with the sensors and alarm services, they see that you are not able to get that if you move to a competitor. And we are able to deliver sensors and alarm service in a better and more cost-efficient way due to the synergies to our brand, our distribution power, et cetera. So that's an example of what we are -- what's important to us to share with the bots so that they actually see that we are differentiating us from the competitors.
Just one comment on that. That's important -- that's a good question, but that's important also when it comes to AI and that kind of solutions in the commercial market because we see that customers that having, example, only motor and property compared to those having motor property and personal health products. The last is more satisfied, they're more profitable. And we are talking about health insurance, when you're combining with pension solutions as well, we saw that those customers stay 13% longer than the rest of the portfolio, and they're more profitable and they are more satisfied. So how -- what we are making, what kind of value proposition we are making available, then we also have to combining this with risk management models and advisory. And we see that when you're combining this in our value proposition, that is how we seek to be differentiating in the market going forward also in the commercial market.
And you can say to your question about claims handling, when it comes to the value chain, sales, service and claims handling due to ChatGPT, then the information sharing is important. You probably do it today. So you ask, can you help me write something clever to the insurance company so I could get my claims payouts. We'll see more of that going forward. But the [ death ] in the value chain when it comes to claims handling is very regulated. So we are not going to see ChatGPT suddenly do the payouts. Well, it's more than welcome, but it's different in the value chain today. So it's different risk profiles as we go through ChatGPT is new distribution, which is more on informative side.
Okay. Do we have any other questions here? No. And we don't have any further questions from the web. All right. So then we've reached the end of our Q&A session. For those of you who have further questions, please send an e-mail to us in IR, and we will revert as soon as possible. Thank you, everyone.
I will now hand the word to Geir for concluding remarks.
So as you have heard today, Gjensidige is standing on a very strong foundation that position us exceptionally well for the future. Our priorities are clear. Customer empathy, resilience, profitable growth and sustainability. These priorities guide how we serve customers, how we strengthen our operations and organization, and how we manage capital and how we create long-term value. Johan, Rene, Lars, Vivi and Jostein have shown how our strong platform enables us to stretch further by growing our top line, improving margins and keeping customers loyal and satisfied and strengthening our work on sustainability and finally, but not at least, delivering cost and capital efficiency that supports attractive returns for our shareholders.
So with this foundation and a clear path forward, I'm confident in our ability to meet the financial targets and achieve the next level for Gjensidige. So with these final words, I thank you for your attention and invite those of you present here today to join us for a short introduction on [indiscernible]. And to all of you following the webcast, thank you for your participation.Thank you.
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Gjensidige Forsikring — Analyst/Investor Day - Gjensidige Forsikring ASA
Gjensidige Forsikring — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to the Gjensidige Q4 2025 Results Presentation Call hosted by Mitra Hagen Negard, Head of IR; and Geir Holmgren, CEO. Please note this conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]
I will now hand you over to Mitra Hagen Negard to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to this fourth quarter and full year 2025 presentation of Gjensidige. My name is Mitra Negard, and I am Head of Investor Relations. As always, we will start with our CEO, Geir Holmgren, who will give you the highlights of the quarter and the year, followed by our CFO, Jostein Amdal, who will run through the numbers in further detail. And we have plenty of time for Q&A after that.
Geir, please.
Thank you, Mitra, and good morning, everyone. We have concluded a strong year, driven by solid efforts across the organization. We moved forward with confidence, guided by a clear commitment to honoring our purpose of being there for our customers when it matters most.
Over the course of the year, we processed nearly 1 million claims, including a higher volume related to Storm Amy, maintaining a strong emphasis on speed and efficiency. We always continue to introduce innovative solutions that help prevent damage and simplify everyday life, further strengthening the value we provide. Our customers continue loyalty confirms the relevance of what we do. In parallel, sustained efficiency initiatives have contributed to a return to strong profitability.
So let's turn to Page 2 for comments on our fourth quarter results before moving on to the full year results. We generated a general insurance service result of NOK 1.297 billion. This result includes a total of NOK 502 million in expenses related to a reduction of the book value of the core IT system and the downsizing of our workforce in Denmark. Adjusted for this, the insurance service result was up almost 8%, reflecting continued strong revenue growth, efficient operations and continued good cost control.
The combined ratio when adjusting for the expenses I just mentioned, was 83.8%, and I'm very pleased with the 0.7 percentage points improvement in the underlying frequency loss ratio. Our investments generated returns of NOK 482 million, contributing to a profit before tax of NOK 1.754 billion and a solid return on equity of 27.3%. Jostein will revert with more detailed comments on the results for the quarter.
Turning to Page 3 and looking at the year as a whole. We delivered on all financial targets. Our combined ratio improved by 2. 5 percentage points to 83.4%, thanks to a strong revenue growth of 11.5%, supported by successful implementation of pricing measures and continued operational improvements. Our cost ratio at 12.7% was well within our target. Adjusted for the NOK 502 million in expenses I just mentioned, our cost ratio was 11.5%. We have a solid capital position with a solvency ratio of 188% at the end of the year after subtracting total dividends of NOK 14.5 per share. Investment returns for the year were good, which together with the results from our pension business contributed to a return on equity of 27.3%.
So let's turn to page -- to the next page for further comments on the proposed dividend. The Board has proposed a total dividend of NOK 7.250 billion for the year, consisting of a regular dividend of NOK 5 billion and a special dividend of NOK 2.250 billion. The regular dividend is equivalent to NOK 10 per share, up more than 11% from 2024. The special dividend is equivalent to NOK 4.5 per share. For our Norwegian general insurance customers, this once again bodes for distribution of a solid customer dividend from the foundation, Gjensidigestiftelsen.
The regular dividend corresponds to a payout ratio of 76% for the group. The proposal requires approval from the FSA since the total amount, including the special dividend, exceeds 100% of net profit in Gjensidige Forsikring. Based on very strong capital position for the group, we expect the application to be approved. We have made a small technical revision of our dividend policy to clarify our target to pay out growing regular dividends. No other amendments have been made and the revision does not change our existing practice.
Moving on to Page 5. The process of replacing our core IT system in Denmark started in 2018. The system is fully implemented for our Private portfolio in Denmark, and we are currently carrying out thorough testing and quality assurance before starting full implementation for the Commercial portfolio. We are strongly convinced of the operational benefits of the new core IT system in Denmark.
Due to technological advancements and the continual evolution of business requirements, it has become evident that the operational lifespan of the existing core systems in Norway and potentially also in Sweden can be extended by several years. We now have high optionality in evaluating future alternatives. We expect to make the decision regarding Sweden first based on thorough assessment of business needs, available technology and the requirements for a system that offers sufficient flexibility to adapt to changing conditions.
I will now turn to the next page. Private property insurance in Norway saw lower underlying profitability this quarter, mainly due to fires. Claims frequency was high, reflecting the impact from the Storm Amy in October with a claim recognized as a large loss, primarily in the corporate center. Repair costs developed as expected with 4% increase year-on-year. We continue to raise prices, though more moderately, with average premiums up just over 14% last year. And over the next 12 to 18 months, we expect the repair cost inflation to remain in the 3% to 5% range. Our current average price increase is 9%.
For private motor insurance in Norway, underlying profitability improved year-on-year, supported by targeting prices and claims frequency was flat, reflecting Storm Amy and an underlying increase estimated at 1% to 2%, offset by the impact from a mild December. Repair costs rose 4.1% and average premiums increased 16.5%. Inflationary pressures are easing, but are likely to stay in the 3% to 6% range. Our current average price increase for private motor is 10%. And finally, on this slide, following 2.5 years of targeted pricing measures following large shift in both claims frequency and average claims cost, we will adjust the level of detail presented going forward as the underlying trends are now well established. I would nevertheless like to emphasize that we will continue to price at least in line with the development in claims cost.
So moving to Page 7. The strong growth momentum in Norway continued this quarter, reflecting price increases across the Private and Commercial segment as well as some volume growth in Private. The general renewals for Commercial are solid, reflecting strong competitiveness in the SME part of the Commercial market. Our consistently high retention rates represent a strong vote of confidence from our customers. Underlying profitability for Private Norway improved year-on-year, while natural inherent volatility resulted in a lower underlying profitability for Commercial Denmark.
Commercial. Denmark showed improved profitability in both the Private and Commercial portfolio, reflecting positive underlying development alongside reserve adjustment and normal inherent volatility. It is also very encouraging to see high retention for the Commercial portfolio. We continue to implement measures to enhance profitability in Denmark, most recently through a reduction in the workforce. While this may have a short-term impact on growth for the Private portfolio, it is a deliberate and expected trade-off to strengthen profitability.
Our Swedish operations continue to build on their positive trajectory, showing sustained progress underpinned by solid growth and strengthened profitability. We have recently concluded the renewal of the majority of our reinsurance programs. We are satisfied with the required capacity -- that the required capacity has been renewed with unchanged retention levels. Reinsurance premiums represent approximately 2% of our premium income and the renewals were completed at lower risk-adjusted premium levels.
Over to Page 8. I'm pleased with the strong sustainability progress through 2025 and the recognitions highlighted here. I'm also particularly pleased to have received renewed confirmation of our AAA rating for -- from MSCI. Our focus on damage prevention continues to create customer value, business impact and support our broader sustainability ambitions. Sustainability is at the core of our business, and we firmly believe that sustainable operations are essential to long-term value creation.
So with that, I will leave the word to Jostein to present the fourth quarter results in more detail.
Thank you, Geir, and good morning, everybody. I will start on Page 10. We delivered a profit before tax of NOK 1.754 billion in the fourth quarter. The insurance service result was NOK 1.798 billion when adjusting for the increase in operating expenses related to the reduction in book value of the core IT system and the expenses related to the reduction in the workforce. The result also reflected higher large losses, which included NOK 349 million in claims related to the Storm Amy, net of reinsurance and including reinstatement premium. Higher runoff gains contributed positively.
Private delivered a higher result, driven by both Norway and Denmark. The improvement in Norway reflects continued strong revenue growth and the lower underlying loss ratio for motor, travel and accident and health insurance. We also achieved a further decrease in the cost ratio. The positive development in Private Denmark was driven by a combination of revenue growth, reserve adjustments for property insurance and an improved cost ratio. Commercial also delivered a higher insurance service result.
In Norway, the insurance service result reflected revenue growth, partly offset by natural inherent volatility in claims for property and accident and health insurance, while motor insurance showed improved profitability. In Denmark, higher results were driven by revenue growth and improved underlying frequency loss ratio for all the main products and a lower cost ratio. In Sweden, the increase in insurance service result was due to improved underlying profitability and revenue growth. Property insurance in both portfolios, private motor and payment protection insurance showed better profitability. Higher runoff gains also contributed positively.
The Pension segment reported a pretax profit of NOK 187 million, mainly driven by a higher net finance income. The net result from our investment portfolios amounted to NOK 370 million in the quarter, with positive returns for most asset classes. Other items was minus NOK 100 million this quarter, with the improvement mainly reflecting a positive year-end balance related to the transfer of profits to Natural Perils Fund.
In addition, mobility services had a higher result. Following the completion of ADB Gjensidige earlier this month, this is the last quarter in which the results of the Baltic business are reported. The decrease in result was due to a lower insurance service result and net financial income.
Turning over to Page 11. Our strong growth momentum continued in the fourth quarter with insurance revenues for the group increasing by 10.4% in local currency. The increase was mainly driven by pricing measures across the Private and Commercial portfolios in all geographies in addition to higher volumes in Private, Commercial in Denmark and in Sweden. The growth in the Private segment was driven by both Norway and Denmark. Private Norway showed a strong growth momentum even when excluding the home seller insurance product.
This strong development was primarily driven by price increases in all main product lines. But I'm also very pleased to see that volumes increased not insignificantly for motor, property, travel and accident and health insurance. The growth in Denmark was also strong, thanks to price increases and higher volumes for all main products. Growth in Commercial was also driven by both Norway and Denmark. In Norway, the growth was driven by price increases for all products and solid renewals. As in the previous quarters last year, growth for some products within accident and insurance and for larger customers was muted due to a continued focus on profitability improvements.
Growth in Commercial Denmark was driven by price increases for all main products and higher volumes for property, accident and health and liability insurance. Growth in Sweden was primarily driven by higher volumes related to leisure both and payment protection insurance in the Private portfolio and motor insurance in the Commercial portfolio. Price increases for all main product lines also contributed to the growth in insurance revenue.
Turning now to Page 12. The loss ratio increased by 1.3 percentage points, reflecting an increase in large losses. Higher runoff gains contributed positively. I'm very pleased with the development in the underlying frequency loss ratio, which improved by 0.7 percentage points, reflecting improvements in all segments and geographies except Commercial in Norway.
Let's turn to Page 13. Our commitment to operational efficiency remains strong. The group's cost ratio was 15.9% this quarter. Excluding the expense related to the core IT system and workforce reduction in Denmark, the cost ratio improved by 0.8 percentage points, reflecting revenue growth, targeted efficiency measures and strict cost discipline. Both geographies in Private and Commercial in Denmark showed a lower cost ratio. We continue to strengthen our competitiveness, particularly in Denmark, and we're working to optimize our cost base across the group to create greater capacity for future investments in technology and growth.
Over to Slide 14 for comments on our Pension operations. We are very pleased with the performance of our Pension business, which delivered a pretax profit of NOK 124 million, including the change in CSM this quarter. The increase over the fourth quarter in 2024 was mainly driven by a higher net finance income in addition to a positive effect from discontinuation of reinsurance contracts during the quarter. Higher profitability for the disability pension product also contributed positively, whereas lower results for child pension negatively impacted the results.
Net finance income was NOK 73 million, reflecting running yield return from real estate, marginal spread tightening and an increase in interest rate levels. The unit-linked business continues to grow with a number of occupational members increasing by almost 18,000 members and assets under management up more than NOK 17 billion year-on-year. This drove administration fees and management income higher. However, higher expenses due to the growth in business weighed on the result, bringing it down compared with the same quarter in 2024.
Moving on to the investment portfolio on Page 15. Our investment portfolio generated positive returns from most asset classes, driven by running yields, lower credit spreads and positive equity markets. The match portfolio net of unwinding and the impact of changes in financial assumptions returned around 50 basis points, mainly reflecting lower credit spreads and the fact that the investments did not fully match the accounting-based technical provisions. The free portfolio returned around 70 basis points, driven by running yields, lower credit spreads and positive equity markets. The risk in our free portfolio remained low.
A few words on the latest development of our operational targets on Slide 16. Customer satisfaction in the fourth quarter of [ 77 ] was in line with the same period last year, but remained slightly below our target. We continue to take steps to further improve our customer offering and satisfaction levels. Retention in Norway remained high and stable at 91%. Retention outside Norway was unchanged at 84%, but we're pleased to see that Commercial Denmark increased retention from 85% to 86% this quarter.
The improvement in the digital distribution index this quarter reflects a significant increase in digital sales and digital service as well as a steady number of digital customers. Distribution efficiency progressing well, primarily as a result of higher sales in Private Norway. Digital claims reporting was stable during the quarter with a slight increase in Sweden and automated claims processing in Norway improved further.
Turning to Page 17. We had a solvency ratio of 188% at year-end, down from 191% last quarter. Note that the completion of the sale of operations in the Baltics will have a positive impact of approximately 5 percentage points on the solvency ratio. This impact will be recognized in the first quarter of 2026 as the transaction was completed after year-end.
Solvency II operating earnings and returns from the free portfolio contributed positively to eligible own funds. Note that the reduction in book value of the core IT system does not impact eligible funds. The seasonal impact from premium provisions reflecting growth and higher profitability contributed to the operating earnings. The proposed dividend for 2025 reduced eligible own funds by NOK 3.1 billion this quarter. In addition, more of the Tier 2 capital is eligible this quarter.
The impact from growth on the non-life capital requirement was offset by an approval of a minor change in internal model. Capital requirement for life decreased due to annual update of the model assumptions and parameters. Capital requirement for market risk increased due to recalibration of certain parameters and higher exposure towards equities in our Pension business.
And with that, I hand the word back to Geir.
Thank you, Jostein. To sum up on Page 18, I'm encouraged by the progress we made in 2025, demonstrating our strong financial and operational resilience. We will continue our effort to retain our leading and unique position in the Norwegian market, while strengthening profitability and growth both in and outside Norway. We will ensure that pricing remains ahead of claims cost development and maintain a disciplined focus on operational efficiency. I am confident that we remain on a positive trajectory toward delivering on our financial targets for 2026.
So finally, on Page 19. Before we open up for questions, a reminder of our Capital Markets Day on 26th of February. Please refer to the invitation published on 15th of January for further details.
And with that, we will now open up the Q&A session of this presentation.
[Operator Instructions] And the first question today comes from the line of David Barma from Bank of America.
2. Question Answer
So firstly, I wanted to ask you about the Danish business in the quarter on the Private side. And you note there was a support from reserve releases during the quarter. Can you come back on that and explain what that is, please?
And then secondly, on private conditions and pricing conditions in Private Norway, please, the helpful comments you show on the pricing impact in January are still really positive. You're now at record combined ratios. So can you give us some color on how long you think that can last and what the rationale is to still be pricing that much ahead of claims inflation in 2026?
And then lastly, coming back on the core IT system announcement. Can you explain your decision regarding this change and whether we should expect you to make further investments on your Norwegian and Swedish systems in '26?
Thank you, David. I'll start on the first one. As we -- as I said and we wrote during the year, reserves on claims already reported will be adjusted as they are going through the claims adjustment process. So that's a very natural part of the business. And in the fourth quarter, we have seen a positive effect on claims in -- especially property, Private Denmark, which were reported earlier this year. And that's improved, of course, the results in the fourth quarter in Private Denmark.
We're not disclosing exact amounts there, but there's nothing particular or special about it. It's a natural part of the process. And we see that the underlying improvement in Private Denmark is very high in this quarter. But if you look at the year -- the whole year figures, they are not affected by those kind of intra-year movements on the reserves, and they also show a very solid improvement in the underlying frequency loss ratio of 4.5 percentage points. So there is a steadily increasing improvement, I would say, in the underlying profitability of the Private business in Denmark.
Yes. Regarding the Private business in Norway, I'm very satisfied with the development -- positive development we have had in the past. I see that we have succeeded with all our profitability measures, including changing terms and conditions, high retention levels or deductibles and also pricing measures.
If you -- now in January, as mentioned and as you can see in the presentation, we are still increasing prices both for motor and property, which is above the inflation levels we are seeing at the moment. I will see that we have to consider on an ongoing basis what to do during the next quarter. So I can't share any comments on future pricing, but we will always have a position where we are doing the repricing at least in line with all the inflation numbers we are seeing.
If you look at the retention level, still very high. We have very loyal customers in Norway. We have been through the Storm Amy and also in -- by the end of the year, we had a storm in the northern part of Norway. We see that the customers are very happy with the way we are handling the claims, which is very positive and probably our main purpose of being relevant for customers that we are helping customers when they actually need us.
So -- and your last question regarding the core IT systems and what about investments in Sweden and Norway. We are doing an assessment what to do in Sweden as Sweden is definitely a smaller portfolio. So we have to definitely be assured that -- make sure that we are doing investments in Sweden, which are in -- at a level which could be easily handled by the Swedish business alone.
The reduction on the book value we are doing this quarter gives us definitely higher optionality on what to do in Sweden and in Norway on a later basis. And the positive thing here is that we see that technological development we have seen in the past and definitely, we see the next years gives us more an improved optionality to what to do and -- which also I expect to have a good impact on expenses used in relative to Norwegian core IT system going forward.
Just coming back on the first one on Denmark. Is this a step change in profitability in the market? Or is it more a function of conservativeness in the attritional and how you book your attritional loss ratio earlier in the year, that was actually unwarranted?
No, I think this is a real improvement in profits, but the magnitude of this is somewhat influenced by these reserve adjustments. But there is no doubt about that in our portfolio, there is a real improvement in the underlying profitability there.
The next question comes from the line of Vash Gosalia from Goldman Sachs.
I have 2 questions. The first one on claims frequency. So here, when I talk about claims frequency, I would love to get your inputs on how do you expect that to develop ex natural catastrophe? And what I'm trying to understand is, obviously, you're growing pricing at 9%, 10% with claims inflation mid-single digits. But I guess to get a better view on combined ratios, it would be helpful to understand how you think frequency is going to develop.
And the other part to this particular question is, obviously, Norway is a bit more ahead of the curve in terms of vehicle adoption or new vehicle adoption. Do you see a structural decline as a result of that in your claims frequency, especially in motor? So that's the first one.
The second one is on your cost ratio. So obviously, that has -- it's pretty strong adjusted for the NOK 502 million. And even in 3Q, it was pretty strong, in my opinion. So just trying to understand, is that like the new normal level? And can we expect that to improve further? Or is that -- or would you say that's like a fair level for our models and our forecast?
I'll start, Geir. Thank you, Vash. I mean we need to distinguish between the different products if we talk about claims frequency because they will be different. And with reference to nat cats, I assume you're mostly focused on the property side here.
So for private property, we have talked about for a number of years that there is a long-term increase in the claims frequency due to climate change that there will be more water-related damages affecting our private book of business, and we need, therefore, to increase prices a bit more than just the inflation figures look like. And so we have done.
We don't have any specific forecast for you on the claims frequency for neither property nor motor, except from what we've shown you in this page in the presentation where we do think there is -- except for these climate-related things on property, a fairly flat development in the claim frequency for property, whereas for private cars, vehicles, we do think there's an underlying small increase in claims frequency ongoing and at the same level that we talked about in the previous quarter, which is 1% to 2%. But the important part is that we are monitoring this very tightly and are ready to adjust pricing or terms if we see any unexpected developments.
Regarding cost ratio, you know our financial targets for 2026, and we are reporting cost ratios in the last quarters, excluding the expenses related to the IT core system in the last quarter, you see that it's below 13%. We have an organization where we have a very high level of cost discipline. We are many measures to improve cost efficiency on an ongoing basis. We see that our distribution efficiency, both in Norway and gradually in Denmark is improving based on use of data and how we actually run our business in the distribution area.
You see that the hit rates when having a dialogue with customers is at a very high level, around 45% to 50% of every -- of the calls coming in are converted to sales. So -- and you also see on the more operational KPIs in the presentation that we are improving when it comes to automation and digitalization, which is helpful when it comes to cost and cost efficiency. So as an organization, we have a strong focus on cost discipline and referring to our financial targets is my best comment.
The next question comes from the line of Hans Rettedal from Danske Bank.
I was just wondering if you could clarify for me the write-down in the IT system because it's not completely clear exactly what it stems from, given the fact that you're saying you're extending the lifetime of the Norwegian and Swedish systems, but at the same time, sort of looking into the Swedish system here going forward. Am I correct in thinking that it's the value of implementing the Danish system into Norway and Sweden that's being written down? That's the first one.
And then the second one is just again back on pricing in Private Norway. I understand that you can't say anything about the absolute pricing levels for 2026, but just trying to get understanding of what your expectation for inflation is because the range, 3% to 5% to 3% to 6% is quite large. So are you sort of pricing at the top end of that or middle end or lower end of that also considering the frequency? That's my 2 questions.
Yes. I'll start on the write-down, Hans. It's -- I think you're on to it. It's like we have developed a core system that started out as a group project. And then we see that given the technology development since we started this, the life span of the existing core systems, especially in Norway, but potentially also in Sweden might be enhanced for many more years. And that then when part of the investments that were allocated to kind of the Norwegian future core IT system is now taken down to 0. So the remaining book value is related to the Danish core system.
And with the remaining book value, which we now have disclosed at a bit more than NOK 600 million, we do think we have a fairly cost-efficient core IT system covering both claims and sales and so on in Denmark. And also note that this system is in use for private. It's working well. And we're now in the process of implementing it for commercial Denmark. It will take some time, but we're doing it in a very thorough way and testing so to make sure that there is as little operational disturbances as possible when moving from one core IT system to another.
Yes. Regarding pricing in Norway, yes, it's not easy to comment on future pricing ambitions. But our core ambition is to price at least in line with the development of claims cost, which include that we have to be on the -- more on the conservative side when looking at the inflation interval, which also -- before we know the exact numbers on the inflation, we have to be assured that we are at least pricing in line with what we see on an inflation basis and claims development. So I have to admit that our starting point on doing this assessment is at the top end of the intervals commented.
That's helpful. I was just wondering, just a quick clarification on the IT system. Maybe just why it sort of works in Denmark, but then it doesn't work in -- or you don't think it will work in Norway and Sweden.
I'm sorry, Hans, I was probably unclear. What I meant was that it is working in Denmark, but the existing system, which we have had for a number of years, is going to work for a longer time in Norway. We're not saying that we're not going to use the Danish system also in Norway and Sweden, but especially for Norway, this will be a number of years into the future before we are moving to any other -- any new core IT system. And the one we're using in Denmark is one of the candidates for a future Norwegian system.
I would say that now we have gained higher optionality when it comes to what to do in Norway and Sweden. And it's also a measured -- message here that actually, at the moment, we are very satisfied with how the system works in Norway. It gives us using all -- if you look at all the technological development we have been seeing during the last couple of years and what we expect in the future, we don't have to use the core system in Denmark also in Norway. We do have more alternatives, which is positive.
And the next question comes from the line of Youdish Chicooree from Autonomous Research.
If I may, please, I would like to stay on the topic of your core IT system. I was just wondering, I mean look, is there not a benefit from operating a unified system across all your geographies because I know some of your peers do that. And when you talk about the life span of the Norwegian system expanding by several years, it just sounds like you're just delaying the possibility of having like one platform across all your geographies. So your thoughts on the potential savings you could have further down the line by making the investments today would be interesting.
And then secondly, on -- just on pricing and the competitive environment. You're still pricing at a decent margin above your expected claims inflation. I was wondering about whether there's been a change in the competition landscape considering that some of your other peers have talked about doubling the market share from single digits. So any comments around that would be actually quite helpful.
Yes. Starting with the core IT system. I would say if you looked at Norwegian platform, and I would say that everything we do in Norway, all the processes, including claims, distribution, everything is not only dependent on the core IT system. We are using technology in all our processes across our business. And my core idea a couple of years ago was to enhance the operational benefits of having operations in both Norway and Denmark.
So we are seeing synergies on the way we are doing on the distribution side, how we use data. We are facing synergies on how we run the business, both in Private and Commercial segments in Norway and Denmark. It is not only dependent on having one single IT platform across the markets. It's more how we use data, how we have a common management team across Norway, Denmark and how we run the processes -- the core processes related to our business. So I would say that we have done many measures. We are facing progress when it comes to have more on the operational benefits and synergies across Norway and Denmark. So it's not dependent alone on a common core IT platform.
Yes. On the competitive landscape, it's -- I'm not sure I know which players you're referring to that are doubling their market share or have ambition of doubling their market share. Our experience is that competition is still very rational and disciplined. We still see all the major players having fairly similar or rather similar profitability targets, especially if we adjust for the cost advantage that Gjensidige has compared to the peers. And we don't see really any shifts in the competitive landscape so far at least. And that goes for both Norway and Denmark and Sweden.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Thomas Svendsen from SEB.
Yes. So a question on Sweden. It seems to be a very strong also underlying results for Q4 -- to be at Q4. So how will you describe the business in Sweden? Is this sort of a highlight or sort of underlying picture in Sweden? So this is a new better level in Sweden? And also how is price increases accepted in Sweden by the clients?
Thanks, Thomas. Well, I'm very satisfied with the development we have seen in Sweden during the last year. Very good profitability. We have a stable market position even though it's a minor or a smaller position. But if you see all the development we have done in the Swedish business during the last couple of years, we are doing progress when it comes to automation. We are doing progress when it comes to use of digital solutions. We are doing progress when it comes to risk selection and our competence and capabilities on underwriting.
So I think that underlying development in the Swedish business is very healthy, and it's -- so it's a very good run and business with good progress. If we look at market conditions, it has been stable. We see that we are succeeding with the risk selection we are doing. And you can also in the presentation, see the growth numbers we are having in Sweden. But having this stable position is a good asset and strategically right for Gjensidige.
Okay. And then maybe the final question on the IT system. So you wrote it down earlier in the year as well. So what has changed or what did you discover during Q4? I guess it was not smoothing of earnings, but that something has happened during Q4?
Yes. In the third quarter, we had a termination on the core IT system in the Pension business, which is a different system. So now we are running this business with the existing system and also recognize that we had a longer life span on the existing system. What we are doing now in this quarter is to give us higher optionality to what to do in Sweden and Norway because when we started this core system project many years ago, it was stated as a group project. Now we are giving ourselves a higher optionality to look at this as a Danish project. And then we have a good time and can use the time to decide what to do in Sweden and Norway with no kind of tense situation where we had to conclude in due course.
And I guess if you just look at Q3 and Q4 in combined, I guess there are some learning points. And how we -- do you think for future investments in AI and new technology? Would you be very strict on that?
Yes. Definitely. I would say that we have picked up learning points, not only in the last 2 quarters, but during the couple of last years. I will see that now we are running IT project in -- and we have done this assessment very -- and used competent resources to do the assessments. And now we are running IT project with high level of management attention and with high level of control and steering, of course. And all the learning points we are picking up learning points for -- regarding all kind of investments and processes we are running. So it's not only on the IT core system. We always have to improve the way we are doing our business and running our business, including core IT systems investments.
Our next question comes from the line of Qian Lu from UBS.
This is Qian Lu from UBS. Firstly, just a quick clarification on the IT system. So you mentioned that this write-down has kind of given you optionality as to what to do in Norway and Sweden. So does that mean it's still possible for us to see like utilization of this core system in Norway and Sweden in the future?
And then secondly, just some long-term questions on autonomous vehicles, which are on the heavy debate lately. I'm keen to understand what you're seeing in the Norwegian market. So to what extent is the speed of change of the car fleet in Norway different to other Nordic countries and Continental Europe? When do you expect to see advanced AVs that L2+ to become a majority of the car fleet? And are you ensuring any AVs in your book at the moment?
Yes. On the IT system, we are definitely not saying that we're not going to use the Danish system. We are saying that by expanding the horizon for when we start a core -- a change of the core IT system in Norway in some areas, that was the reasoning behind the write-down of the IT system. But the current Danish system is definitely one candidate for -- also for Norway and Sweden in the future.
When it comes to autonomous driving, this is definitely a long-term trend. It's something we have followed for many, many years. As you know, we have a separate mobility strategy, which is integrated with our business and especially our motor insurance business. So having feet on ground with the RSA company is important and an important part of our mobility strategy.
When it comes to risk development, you will probably see that over time, due to autonomous driving, you will see that risk and claims frequency could be reduced. But on the other side, we also see that the OEMs, the car producers will need to increase their kind of liability due to responsibility regarding the autonomous cars. And we don't expect this to have a short-term impact. The average age of the car in the Norwegian car fleet is above 10 years. We see that even though 97%, 98% of the cars -- new cars sold today are EVs, the total share in the total car portfolio is approximately 27% of the total car fleet. So it takes a long time before actually this will have a larger impact.
And then you probably see that Nordic driving conditions are very different from what you see other places. And you need a lot of data to make the autonomous cars being able to have this autonomous driving on Norwegian and Nordic roads as well. So our response to that is that we are following this development very closely, and we are having our mobility strategy to be relevant for the OEMs and car retailers forward. And yes, and there are also opportunities regarding risk and risk exposures related to the autonomous cars, which are very interesting also on a long-term basis.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Michele Ballatore from KBW.
So I have 3 questions. So the first question is about the message, the change in messaging the dividend. So how should we read that? Why did you -- have you decided to change it? So that's the first question.
The second question is on the special dividend. I mean it's quite a sizable special. I mean it's -- can you help us understand in terms of the expectation on this particular metric? I mean how should we think about this -- its development in the future?
And then the third question, I'm really sorry to come back to the IT system thing. But I think -- I mean I will phrase the question slightly different from the others. If we look at the impact that this -- in terms of benefits, depreciation or whatever, the impact that this IT system had in the previous quarters or in the previous years, have they -- I mean are they going to change? I mean it's -- if you -- were this impact more optimistic, less optimistic? I'm trying to understand what will change in terms of the future versus the past.
Thank you. Starting with the minor changes regarding the dividend policy statement. It's -- if you look at what's been happening during the last -- or over many years, the actual dividend, regular dividend has been increasing year-by-year. So it's -- so changing the statement high and stable nominal dividend seems to be relevant to actually face what's actually happening. So it's a revision, which now reflects the actual situation we have seen in the past, and it doesn't change any practice going forward, I would say.
When you go to the size of the special dividend for 2025, if you look at our dividend policy and everything we -- and what we actually is our main kind of thinking in the management and in the Board is that we don't aim to have much surplus capital in the group. We have this solvency interval, 140% to 190%, which is something we have to have in mind when stating the proposed dividend.
So with this in our mind, we are -- and doing this forecast on the capital situation in the group as well, it seems to be very right to propose a dividend. And in this situation, a surplus dividend of NOK 4.5, which reflects the capital situation in the group and also what we have said, not having too much surplus capital in the group as well.
On the question on the IT system, the way we book this is that it's capitalized as we develop it. And then when we start taking the system in use, it's into annual depreciations affecting the P&L. And when we started using the private -- using the system for the Private segment in Denmark, we started depreciating on the kind of the investments allocated to the private segment in Denmark, and that's been included in the accounts for the previous quarters.
The write-down now doesn't change this because what's remaining on the book value is related to Denmark, and we start depreciating the cost allocated to the commercial part of this system when we start taking into use in Denmark. And then over time, of course, we do have costs related to the existing system. And then that -- those costs will be fade out as we move the portfolio from one system to the other.
There are no further questions. So handing back over to you, host, to conclude.
Thank you. Thank you, everyone, for good questions. We will be participating in roadshow meetings in Oslo today and in other cities abroad after our Capital Markets Day, which, as mentioned, will be held on the 26th of February. Please see our financial calendar on our website for more details. Thank you for your attention, and have a nice day.
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Gjensidige Forsikring — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Gjensidige Forsikring — Special Call - Gjensidige Forsikring ASA
1. Management Discussion
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Gjensidige's Fourth Quarter 2025 Pre-Close Call. My name is Mitra Negård, and I am Head of Investor Relations.
With me, I have our IRO, Jonas Fougner. Please note that this call is being recorded, and the recording will be published on our Investor Relations website after the call. We will start with going through the Q4 reminder, which was published on our website yesterday. This reminder highlights relevant public information and will not include any new business updates. Afterwards, we will open up for a Q&A session.
As always, we only answer questions related to already disclosed and public information. And please note that if you want to ask questions, you need to log on via the Teams app. Over to you, Jonas.
Hi, everyone. Let us start with a few key dates. Our silent period starts on the first of January, and we will be releasing our Q4 results on the 29th of January. As always, we kindly ask you to forward your estimates using the template I sent you yesterday. And please fill in all open cells in the sheet. We have included control lines to help you identify and avoid potential errors in your seats.
Please make sure the control lines are error-free before sending the file back to us. The deadline for sending us your estimates is the 16th of January, and we will publish consensus on our website on the 24th of January.
Now let's move on to the reminder. As usual, we start with the comments on the weather. For the sake of good order, we always remind you of the seasonality in our business with the winter quarters, Q1 and Q4, normally having higher claims ratios than the summer quarters, Q2 and Q3. Scandinavia has experienced a mild Q4 so far with precipitation levels ranging from normal to above average and notable regional variability.
At the beginning of October, Storm Amy struck several countries in Northern Europe with Norway being the hardest hit country in Scandinavia. As communicated in connection with the Q3 2025 earnings release, total claims cost for the group in the fourth quarter of 2025 related to Amy is estimated to approximately NOK 400 million net of reinsurance and including reinstatement premiums.
These costs will follow our usual principle for distributing losses as outlined in our quarterly reports. Losses up to NOK 30 million are charged to the segment where they occur and any amount above that goes to the corporate center. The NOK 30 million limit applies to the total for all segments, not per segment. And as mentioned, Norway was the hardest hit country in Scandinavia from the storm.
As communicated earlier, the results for ADB
Gjensidige, our Baltics business are presented separately in the group accounts as profit or loss from discontinued operations until completion of the transaction, which we expect will take place in the beginning of next year.
Over to large losses. The expectation for 2025 is as we have communicated earlier, approximately NOK 500 million per quarter. And for the sake of good order, please note that this figure is an estimate and not a guiding per quarter. Large losses are, as you know, random in nature. And in terms of quarterly estimate, we simply divide the annual estimate by 4.
In terms of excess reserves, there is no change in the communication. We continue to set reserves according to our best estimate. And bearing history in mind, we expect runoff gains and losses also in the future. On inflation, we will, as per routine, provide an update at our earnings call. Please see a reminder for references to the relevant slides and pages in the Q3 2025 quarterly presentation and report.
Moving to solvency. As usual, we have listed the main items for the eligible funds and capital requirement in the reminder. Remember that the eligible funds at the end of the third quarter this year included approximately NOK 520 million of the NOK 900 million Tier 2 bond we issued in October last year. We expect the eligible amount of the Tier 2 loan to increase over time as the capital requirement increases driven by growth.
Bear in mind the mechanics for dividend treatment when calculating eligible own funds in Q4. For the first to the third quarter, the deduction is based on the formulaic dividend equal to 80% of profit after tax. In Q4, however, the amount deducted is the residual of the proposed dividend for the year.
Moving on to our investment portfolio. As always, we believe a good starting point for estimating returns is using the same asset allocation as the previous quarter, applying returns on the indices we have listed in the reminder.
And finally, on unwinding and changing financial assumptions. Remember the rules of thumb and the example calculation published on our website. And as per routine, a reminder includes updated swap rates.
So with that, we will now open up for questions. [Operator Instructions]
2. Question Answer
My question is in relation to Storm Amy actually and the loss of EUR 400 million you flagged. Firstly, is that loss -- does that cover your share of the natural perils pool loss as well as losses outside the pool? Or is that just
It's total natural perils and other claims.
All right. And then secondly, I mean, given the size of the loss, does that mean the entire amount gets charged to the corporate center? Or do you charge up to EUR 30 million in the segments and then the balance to the corporate center?
Yes, the latter. As Jonas said, we -- our policy in terms of distributing claims between Corporate Center and segments, as always, is EUR 30 million on the segments and the rest to the Corporate Center. And the EUR 30 million applies across all segments. So when there is one event that hits several segments, it's EUR 30 million in total for the segments and the rest to Corporate Center.
Okay. Fine. And finally, final question on the solvency capital, is there any seasonality in your SCR in the way you actually model it?
Yes, there is some seasonality, but have a look at the reminder that we published yesterday. There, you will see some comments in terms of general seasonality effects.
Any other questions?
No? Okay. There doesn't seem to be any more further questions. So thank you very much, everyone, for your attention.
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Gjensidige Forsikring — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Hello, and welcome to the Gjensidige's Q3 2025 Results Presentation. My name is Serge and I'll be your coordinator for today's event. Please note, this call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]
I will now hand you over to your host, Mitra Negård. Head of Investor Relations, to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our Third Quarter Presentation of Gjensidige. As always, my name is Mitra Negård, and I'm Head of Investor Relations. As always, we will start with our CEO, Geir Holmgren, who will give you the highlights of the quarter; followed by our CFO, Jostein Amdal, who will run through the numbers in further detail. And we have plenty of time for questions after that. Geir, please.
Thank you, Mitra, and good morning, everyone. The third quarter saw a relatively stable weather in our region. However, earlier this month, Storm Amy reminded us of the growing impact of climate change and extreme weather, affecting large parts of Norway and areas in Denmark. The storm caused significant property damage through strong winds, once again, testing our organization's resilience. In preparation for the event, cross-functional teams across the organization were mobilized to ensure customer safety and uphold the consistently high standards of service. Billion lessons from past events, we have streamlined our processes for faster, more effective support.
According to the Norwegian Natural Perils Pool, over 11,000 claims have been registered in Norway with total industry-wide insurance losses from Natural Perils estimated at NOK 1.5 billion to NOK 2.1 billion. Additional claims for cars, boats and water-related incidents fall in a separate insurance schemes. You can see this total claims cost for Amy in Q4 2025 is estimated at approximately NOK 400 million net of reinsurance and including reinstatement premiums.
With the emergency phase behind us, the focus is now on supporting our customers in repairing and replacing what has been damaged. Events like Amy highlight the need for continued climate risk preparedness, the insurance industry remains committed to prevention, collaboration with the municipalities and developing solutions that reflect the changing risk landscape.
So now let us turn to Page 3 for comments on the third quarter results. We delivered our profit before tax of NOK 2,067 million. This result includes a nonrecurring expense of NOK 429 million related to the termination of the new core IT system in our pension business. We generated a general insurance service results of NOK 2,271 million, significantly up year-on-year.
Our strong growth momentum continued in the quarter with 11.3% increase in insurance revenue when adjusted for the positive effect of the change in recognition of home seller insurance. The combined ratio declined to 79.7%, reflecting the improvements in both loss and cost ratios. The underlying frequency loss ratio improved by 1.4 percentage points and our investment generated returns of NOK 534 million, contributing to delivering a solid return on equity of 29.6%. We have a solid capital position and our solvency ratio was 191% at the end of the quarter. Jostein will revert with more detailed comments on the results for the quarter.
Turning to Page 4. I will start with private property insurance in Norway, which sold lower profitability this quarter, reflecting the inherent natural volatility in claims. Claims frequency increased by 5%. Repair costs increased by 4%, in line with our expectation. We continue to implement price increases, although at a more moderate level, reflecting the outlook for inflation and frequency and the current profitability level. Average premiums increased by almost 16%, over the next 12 to 18 months, we expect the repair cost to remain within the range of 3% to 5%, and we will continue to price at least in line with expected claims inflation. Our current average rate of price increases of private property in Norway is 12.5%.
So moving over to private motor insurance in Norway. Profitability for this product line improved over the same quarter last year, thanks to our targeted pricing measures. Claims frequency increased by 4%, reflecting an elevated claims level in July, likely as a consequence of the good weather and high traffic density in the vacation weeks. We estimate that the increase in the underlying claims frequency was in the range of 1% to 2%, repair costs increased by 4.4%, well within our estimated range.
Average premium increased by 18.6%, although inflationary pressures are easing. The overall level is likely to remain within the 3% to 6% range for the next 12 to 18 months. We are monitoring the key drivers closely and acknowledge the uncertainty stemming from, among others, geopolitical risk and escalated trade tensions. Our current average rate of price increases of private motor in Norway is 13%.
Moving on to Page 5. The strong performance in Norway continued this quarter, driven by sustained growth momentum and focus on efficient operations. We are very pleased to see that our retention rates for both the private and commercial portfolios, remain at a very high levels despite the necessary price increases. Sales activity has been strong, leading to an increase in both customer numbers and volumes for private in Norway. We continue to maintain strong competitiveness in the SME part of the commercial market with strong focus on profitability as we move closer to the January renewals.
In Denmark, profitability improved for the private portfolio with solid revenue growth driven by both volume and pricing. Profitability for the commercial portfolio was lower, reflecting the inherent variability. We are satisfied with the underlying developments. The implementation of our new core IT system in Denmark is progressing steadily, supported through our testing and a strong focus on quality. Sales are being rolled out gradually, and we are preparing for the migration of the portfolio next year.
We are seeing clear benefits from the experience gained during the implementation and use of the system in the private portfolio. And I'm pleased to see that our Swedish operation continued to build on positive momentum, showing sustained progress through solid growth and improved profitability. We are currently conducting a thorough assessment of the core IT system in Sweden, taking into account the specific characteristics of our operations in that market.
Over to Page 6. We continue to actively pursue our strong sustainability ambitions. As shown on this slide, we have launched a number of innovative initiatives that are designed to create significant customer value, while reducing claims costs over time.
So with that, I will leave the word to Jostein to present the third quarter results in more detail.
Thank you, Geir, and good morning, everybody. I will start on Page 8. We delivered a profit before tax of just over NOK 2 billion in the third quarter. The insurance service result increased significantly to NOK 2,271 million, driven by continued strong top line growth and a lower loss ratio. A further decrease in the cost ratio also contributed to higher results.
Private delivered a higher result driven by both Norway and Denmark. The improvement in Norway mainly reflects revenue growth across all products, improved profitability for motor insurance and a lower cost ratio. And nonrecurring effect related to home seller reinsurance also added to the result. The positive development in Private Denmark was driven by a combination of revenue growth for all main products, higher profitability for property and motor insurance and a lower cost ratio. Decrease in results from commercial was driven by our Norwegian portfolio due to revenue growth for all products, improved profitability for Accident & Health, motor and property insurance and a lower cost ratio.
Higher runoff gains also contributed positively. Our Danish commercial portfolio showed lower results, primarily driven by a higher number of fires impacting property insurance and lower run-off gains. In Sweden, the increase in insurance service result mainly reflected higher profitability for private and commercial property and private payment protection insurance. Our lower cost ratio also contributed to the improved results. The pension segment reported a loss of NOK 414 million, largely related to the nonrecurring expense of NOK 429 million related to the termination of the core IT system.
The net result from our investment portfolios amounted to NOK 441 million in the quarter with positive returns from all asset classes. The negative development in the result under other items this quarter is attributable to profits from Natural Perils insurance transferred to the Natural Perils Pool and provisions related to the termination of cooperation agreements with 7 fire mutuals, effective from next year.
We are taking proactive steps to secure our market position in the affected areas, and we expect only a limited impact on revenue. The result from our Baltic business is recorded as discontinued operations, pending regulatory approval for the sale. We expect to close the transaction in the beginning of next year. The higher result reflects the write-down of goodwill related to the sale of the company recognized in the third quarter last year. The insurance service result also contributed positively driven by an increase in runoff gains and lower loss and cost ratios.
Turning over to Page 9. Our strong growth momentum continued in the third quarter with insurance revenues for the group increasing by more than 11% in local currency when adjusting for the nonrecurring effect in Private Norway. I'm very pleased with the increase, which was mainly driven by pricing measures across the private and commercial portfolios in all geographies, solid renewals in the commercial portfolios and higher volumes in Denmark and Sweden.
The growth in our Private segment was driven by both Norway and Denmark. Private Norway showed a strong growth momentum even when excluding the home seller insurance product. This strong development was primarily driven by price increases in all main product lines. And I'm very pleased that we also saw increased volumes from motor, property, travel and accident and health insurance.
The growth in Denmark was also strong, thanks to both price increases and higher volumes for all main products. Growth in commercial was also driven by both Norway and Denmark. In Norway, the growth was driven by price increases for all products and solid renewals. As in the previous quarters, this year, growth for some products within accident insurance was muted due to continued focus on profitability improvements.
Growth in Commercial Denmark was good. Adjusting for an accrual last year, the growth rate was 6.4% in local currency, driven by price increases for all main products and higher volumes for property, accident & health and liability insurance. Growth in Sweden was negatively impacted by accruals. The underlying growth, however, was good, mainly reflecting higher volumes for leisure boat insurance in the private portfolio and higher volume and price increases for commercial motor and private property insurance.
Turning over to Page 10. I'm very pleased with the development in the Group's loss ratio, which improved by 3.2 percentage points compared with the third quarter last year. Part of the improvement was due to lower large losses, which are random in nature. Another important driver was the improvement in the underlying frequency loss ratio of 1.4 percentage points. I'm very satisfied with the development in all the segments and particularly encouraged by seeing an improvement for Private Denmark.
Let's turn to Page 11. Our commitment to operational efficiency remains strong. The group's cost ratio was 10.8% this quarter. The 1 percentage point improvement was driven by private in Norway and Denmark, commercially in Norway and the Swedish operations. We continue to strengthen our competitiveness, particularly in Denmark, and we're working to optimize our cost base across the group to create greater capacity for future investments in technology and growth.
Over to Slide 12 for comments on our pension operations. Our pension business delivered a pretax loss of NOK 414 million this quarter, significantly impacted by the nonrecurring expenses from discontinuing the new core IT system project. For the time being, we will continue using the existing core system as recent improvements have enabled us to extend its operational life span. The underlying development in results for our pension business is good. Business volumes for the insurance products were high this quarter, which together with price increases lifted insurance revenue.
Adjusted for the nonrecurring termination expense, the insurance service results improved year-on-year, but it was still in the red, due to asymmetric recognition of onerous contracts and expected future profits from new contracts.
Net finance income contributed with just over NOK 1 million this quarter, reflecting running yield and higher interest rates. The unit-linked business continues to grow with a number of occupational pension members increasing by 5,500 to almost 335,000 at the end of the third quarter. Assets under management rose by NOK 4 billion to NOK 100 billion. This drove an increase in administration fees and management income, improving the net income from the unit linked business when excluding the nonrecurring item.
Moving on to the investment portfolio on Page 13. Our investment portfolio generated positive returns for all asset classes, driven by running yields, lower credit spreads and positive equity and real estate markets. The match portfolio net of unwinding and the impact of changes in financial assumptions returned around 40 basis points, mainly reflecting lower credit spreads and the fact that the investments did not fully match the accounting-based technical provisions. The free portfolio returned 110 basis points, reflecting positive returns from all asset classes. The risk in our free portfolio remained low.
A few words on the latest development of our operational targets on Slide 14. The customer satisfaction score is measured annually in the fourth quarter. We continue to identify measures and take steps to maintain a strong customer offering and high customer satisfaction. As Geir mentioned, retention in Norway remained high and stable. Retention outside Norway improved slightly during the quarter, with increases seen in Sweden and the private and commercial portfolios in Denmark.
We are steadily progressing toward our 2026 target of achieving a retention rate above 85% outside Norway. The improvement in the digital distribution index this quarter reflects an increase in digital sales and digital customers, somewhat offset by a decline in digital service. Distribution efficiency is progressing well, primarily as a result of higher sales in Norway, but also in Denmark. Increased sales following the acquisition of Buysure contributed positively, improving this metric by 2 percentage points. Digital claims reporting increased during the quarter driven by Denmark and Sweden, and automated claims in Norway increased as well.
Now over to Page 15 and a few words on our successful Tier 1 bond issue of NOK 1.2 billion in September. We aim to take advantage of what we viewed as attractive market condition, while also preparing for the first call of another Tier 1 bond in April next year. The issue was substantially oversubscribed, and we are very satisfied with the floating rate coupon of 3-month MBR plus 215 basis points. We also took the opportunity to buy back NOK 487 million of the Tier 1 bond with the upcoming call, resulting a net increase of NOK 713 million in outstanding Tier 1 capital.
Over to Page 16. We had a solvency ratio of 191% this quarter, up from 182% in the second quarter. Solvency II operating earnings and returns from the free portfolio contributed positively total eligible own funds, while the formulaic dividend which corresponds to a payout rate of 80%, reduced eligible loan funds by NOK 1.3 billion this quarter. The net increase in Tier 1 capital, I just mentioned added NOK 713 million to the eligible own funds.
The capital requirement increased slightly this quarter, primarily due to growth in our pension business. The non-life underwriting risks were stable, reflecting growth, offset by the effect of settlement of larger claims and changes in currency rates.
And with that, I hand the word back to Geir.
Thank you. To sum up on Page 17, we are very pleased with the performance and continued progress across the private, commercial and Swedish segments this quarter. And our capital position is strong. We continue to implement measures and maintain a strong focus on operational efficiency, progressing well toward delivering on our financial targets this year and in 2026.
So finally, on Page 18. Before we open for questions, I'm very happy to announce that we have set a date for our next Capital Markets Day, which will be held on the 26th of February next year in Oslo. We are looking forward to this opportunity to speak about our ambitions and plans. We will provide more details in a while. But in the meantime, please save the date.
And with that, we will now open the Q&A session for this presentation.
[Operator Instructions]
Our first question is from Hans Rettedal from Danske Bank.
2. Question Answer
So my question is around the claims frequency numbers that you gave in motor and property. And I guess there's a lot of sort of volatility, especially between Q2 last quarter and Q3 this quarter with quite a sizable effect on the overall claims outcome. So I was just wondering if you could give a little bit more color on your confidence that sort of frequency will come down and also perhaps just a bit more elaboration on what was driving the July pickup in motor and also in property?
And just a very small question on the amounts recovered from reinsurance, which is lower than it typically is of only NOK 12 million this quarter. I know there's nothing typical about reinsurance, but still any help on why this is or sort of drivers behind it would be interesting to hear.
We'll now move to our next question from Ulrik Zürcher from Nordea.
Operator, we'll try to answer the question first, please. Hans I can start with the claims frequency volatility. As you know, we are -- have an improvement when it comes to online compared this quarter to the third quarter last year. We see an improvement both on the group level and private and commercial and also in the Swedish operations.
When it comes to volatility within the Norwegian part of the business, we see in the property side, more fires this quarter than you normally see. So it's also a kind of impact on some level of volatility, which is a part of our business from quarter-to-quarter. In addition, we saw a pickup, as you mentioned, on the motor side in the start of the third quarter. That's more due to higher frequency in July due to higher traffic density vacation weeks with this time tended to be more have a kind of an impact on the frequency side when it comes to motor.
We do have quite high pricing measures, as mentioned in the October renewal. We see pricing measures, both for property and motor in Norway with renewables on 12.5% to 13% price increases on average, which is still above what we expect when it comes to frequency development and inflation going forward.
Yes. On the reinsurance recoveries, comment on specific claims. There is -- there has been a reduction of the estimates from some previous large claims, which have been above the retention limits. And that has then an effect that assumed the reinsurance recoveries will come down. So they're kind of -- if you have -- I try to explain it more clearly, if you have a reduction in a large claim estimate with no net effect because they have a reduction in gross claims and a reduction in assumed reinsurance recoveries. And that's the main reason why it's such a low number in the third quarter. Was that clear, Hans?
Yes, very clear.
Our next question is from Ulrik Zürcher from Nordea.
Just a short one. Jostein, when you say limited effects from the fire mutuals. Is it possible to -- like how much is that of premiums? And then secondly, just a technical one. You're trying to switch on profits to the Natural Perils Pool. I was just wondering, how will this work going forward?
Okay...
Is it like a quarterly thing or?
Yes. I get the question. The fire mutual there's a limited effect on the future development because there is -- this is -- first of all, this is a situation we also had 5 years ago when we had the termination of a number of fire mutuals as well. And it's then the fire mutuals have sold fire insurance in their own account, and then they have had been an agent on -- for all of the products for Gjensidige. And so we have both the fire mutuals and Gjensidige has had the customer relationship.
And of course, we will be competing for the same customers. And we do expect a limited negative development on the premium development from this. So we will be strengthening our efforts within these geographical areas where these fire mutuals have operated. Yes.
If you talk about the impact on the profitability, I will also mention that because that's due to kind of agent distribution setup. We also definitely reduced expenses going forward regarding distribution. So we improved the distribution efficiency when it comes to existing customers through that channel.
The second question on Natural Perils technicalities is that when the line of business called Natural Perils has a surplus that surplus is transferred to the Natural Perils pool accounts in a way and that's then something we have to pay to this central Natural Perils Pool. Yes, and that's then on the negative on the others, other lines, other items. So it's a good year -- the positive will then be in the -- in a way where it's just a surplus or deficit. So if it's a surplus, it's a negative other. So there is no positive in a way. It's just a net negative.
Okay. So but will this be like done on a quarterly basis or annual?
In reality is every month, but then you, of course, get accounts every quarter.
We'll now move to our next question from Derald Goh from Jefferies.
So my question is around the cost ratio. Now you're running at 12%. Is this the new base that is sustainable or would you -- and I guess, would you consider maybe reinvesting some of that into growth?
We are very happy to see reduced cost ratios. We have very strong cost discipline, and we have many cost efficiency measures going on in the organization and in our business. Our target at the moment is around 13% next year, but we are aiming for keeping the business still cost efficient, of course, and work every day to try to improve the cost efficiency.
This, at the moment, as you mentioned, it could probably argue that it's some kind of room for doing other types of investments. But every type of investments we are doing have -- will have a good business case and will make -- improve the profit over time. So we are still focused on being a cost-efficient business and that's part of the core of our business and the way we are thinking.
But just to be clear, I guess, is it expected to assume that some of this 12% is a reasonable run rate for now?
I think we will not give any kind of guiding on our cost ratio going forward. The best thing to mention is our target for next year, which is around 13%.
And we will now take our next question from Thomas Svendsen from SEB.
Yes. So a question to the pension operation from my side. So can you just explain a little bit more why you scrap this system? Are there any changes in -- sorry, your market approach or something other? And also just remind us of the business plan for your business -- for your pension units? And also, could you sort of indicate sort of what to expect to be sort of normalized pretax profit level given the current asset base there?
Okay. the reason for terminating the core system within the pension business is due to our needs and requirements regarding the business we have today regarding pension business and pension-related products. Our assessment is that we are not getting the full benefit out of the existing core system, which was terminated and that has developed during the years we have doing the development, I would say. So this is a conclusion on something we -- the kind of assessment and consideration we have done in the past.
And our assessment is that this is not the right system for Gjensidige going forward, taking care of our pension business in the Norwegian market with all the kind of requirements needed for doing that efficiently and with high quality. Our pension business in Norway is when it comes to a more strategic view on that. It's a very integrated part of our commercial business, especially in the SME areas, we see that we are running this business very cost efficient when it comes to distribution. It's capital efficient as well due to the types of products we have in the pension business.
And I'm very happy to see the growth we have had within that business during the last couple of years, and it's a very motivated organization to keep that up on a high level going forward as well. So we are focusing on occupational pension and are happy to see that the market has a high level of growth, which we definitely take our earned part. So yes, I think that's probably on the business side.
I can add on the kind of financial guiding. I mean we don't guide us on much, but we have stated a return on equity target for the pension business back in the Capital Market Day in November '23, where we said that based on IFRS earnings, which is the company accounts for the pension business, we need to -- or target to return more than 15% return on equity. And if you exclude this nonrecurring item, year-to-date, the return on equity is 20.7%. So we are well ahead of our stated financial targets for the pension business as a company.
And if you look at the accounts for IFRS 4 in that business, it's -- actually we had a very good quarter when it comes to underlying profitability, good growth on the income side, revenue side, and it's run very cost efficient as well.
We'll now take our next question from the next caller, please introduce yourself by your name and the affiliation after the automated prompt.
This is [indiscernible] from Autonomous Research. Can you hear me?
Yes.
I have just one question just on solvency given the very strong progress year-to-date. I was wondering whether you could comment on where your preferences in terms of capital deployment currently lies in terms of whether you see some good M&A opportunities on the horizon or whether you are more leaning towards passing your capital and potentially repatriate some in the form of special dividend or share buyback?
And then secondly, look to the capital situation, if you could comment on any update, if any, on the approval process for your own partial internal model?
Okay. Yes. I'm very happy with the capital position. We have a strong solvency number, 191, which is above our target interval. We are -- the Board will do their assessment when it comes to dividend at year-end. We are not aiming for having any kind of surplus capital within the group. So this is definitely a part of the consideration when doing the assessment of ordinary and extraordinary dividends by year-end. Yes.
And -- yes, on the process, really no update at this point, really, we are still in the process with Norwegian FSA.
And so if I could follow up. And there's nothing interesting on the M&A profit you see at the moment?
No, we are focused on organic growth in the business. So we are not considering any structural way of growing the business. We are happy with the position we have in Norway and improving the business we're having in Denmark by many operational measures, and that's our focus now. And yes.
[Operator Instructions]
We'll now take our next question.
This is Vinit from Mediobanca. So my one question would be just following up on your comment on the July weather effect driving the 1 to 2 points you mentioned on the underlying. I'm just curious, is there a similar explanation? Or is that the same explanation for commercial Denmark, which seems to have worsened about 4 points in the quarter when compared to 3Q '24, is there any comment on that you could share that also throw some light on what's happening there?
Thank you, Vinit. No, it's not related to the same cost. This is more just inherent quarterly volatility on our commercial book of business. So it's really specific explanation around it, we do see a somewhat increased level of both size and frequency of claims within that business, but nothing we regard as giving the indication of a future trend, so it's volatility.
We'll move to our next question.
Yes. This is Michele Ballatore from KBW. So my question is related to the -- in general, the pricing regarding your comment earlier. So can you tell us what is the status of the -- your pricing, both in private and in commercial across Norway, Denmark and Sweden?
Starting with Norway. We have over time now, 2 years' time, we have had a quite heavily pricing measures going on, which also have increased the pricing level substantial -- substantially for both property and motor insurance. The average decrease within property was approximately 60% last year and promoter between 18% and 19%.
The ongoing pricing measures are still having quite high price increases. But compared to what we have done in the past is a more moderate level, but we are talking about 12% to 13% price increases on average for property and motor insurance in Norway. That's above what we expect when it comes to inflation in the next 12 to 18 months, and it's about the frequency development. So -- but we have a very good and stable position in Norway, still high retention numbers and still I'm very happy to see our competitiveness in the Norwegian market, both on private and commercial side.
When it comes to commercial, large parts of the portfolio have renewals at 1st of January. So we are preparing for that as well with quite high price increases due to what we have done in the types of considerations we are doing.
In Denmark, we have price increases going on in the private segment. As I mentioned before, we have not been satisfied with the profitability in our private Danish business. We have had many, many quarters with red numbers. Happy to see that we have -- can pace of progress during second quarter and third quarter and cost profitability. But price increases are needed to improve that business in addition to cost measures and improving the cost efficiency of that business.
On the commercial side, my opinion is that we have a very, very strong position in Denmark when it comes to our commercial business. We do have a good relationship with the main brokers. We have recognized brand name, a stable good portfolio. When it comes to results, it will be some kind of volatility from quarter-to-quarter, but our starting point going forward is at a very, very good level when it comes to our pricing power and our position in the commercial segment.
And for Sweden yes, still ongoing pricing measures, I'm very happy to see that we have succeeded when it comes to improve our efficiency and to improve the way we are doing business with more digital solutions. And it's a small business, but we have -- but the business we have succeeded to improve profitability over time during the last couple of years, and I'm very happy to see that.
Sorry to follow up on Norway. If I understood correctly, you were talking about 12%, 13% price increases. I mean this is -- am I wrong in assuming I mean this is significantly above inflation. And you have, of course, quite sizable market share in Norway. But my point is, is this something -- I mean, is there the same level of discipline in the market? I'm just trying to understand what you're doing compared to what the market is doing in Norway, specifically?
Yes, good question. We started with repricing our private portfolio in Norway, third quarter 2 years ago. So it has been ongoing pricing measures above inflation now on -- during the last 2 years. My impression -- my view is that Gjensidige probably started that kind of price using pricing measures quite heavily, started that first in the Norwegian market. So we are actually a first mover when it comes to having the pricing measures.
Yes. We still see that we have good pricing power. The retention rates are still high. We are prioritizing profitability before growth and used market situation, and you also see that our competitors are doing price increases that we are still continuing with quite high price increases as well.
The pricing level you mentioned, that's correct. On average, 12.5% to 13% within motor property within private above inflation numbers as we see and frequency development, as we have seen in the past. So we also take care of the kind of claims mix which you will see from time to time when you get new cars in the market and different types of claims, and that would also change from quarter-to-quarter due to the weather conditions.
Operator, are there any further questions?
Yes, we have a question from Hans Rettedal.
I guess it's a bit general, but I was just wondering sort of related to the previous question, do you see any effect from the price hikes that you've implemented now on customers, perhaps dropping coverage or changing coverage, changing terms of deductibles or any sort of movements on the customer side as an effect of kind of pricing having increased quite significantly over the past couple of years?
We spend more time with the customers now than we have done in the past due to everything that's happening in the market. But we also have a situation in Norway and in Denmark that we see quite high price increases due to what we have seen in the past. So the pricing discipline among our peers are at a high level as well. But this situation also makes the customer more -- doing more considerations regarding the insurance contracts, and they are checking prices more than had done in the past.
But we don't see any negative impact on our business volume when it comes to that kind of activity. We still see that the retention numbers are still high. And I'm very satisfied with the level of customer satisfaction and customer loyalty. We do have in our -- especially our Norwegian portfolio. So my view is that we still have a very good pricing power when it comes to do all the necessary measures we have mentioned.
And we have another follow-up question from Derald Goh from Jefferies.
The first one is a clarification. Could you say what are the rate increases that you're putting through in Denmark? Like what percentage is it? And how does it compete to the claims inflation in both private and commercial side of Denmark? And then could you maybe speak to how conservative you might be recognizing some of the margins? I think there are a few questions that has already being that the rate increases seem to be far outstripping the claims inflation number. Is it a case that maybe you are building up a bit of a reserve buffer?
I think on the first, what are the actual price or rate increases that we are putting through in Denmark, we haven't been as clear as we have been on the 2 main products in Private Norway, but we are looking at price increases that are well above our expected development in claims, which is a combination of claims inflation and number of claims, the claims frequency. So that's why what we're aiming for. And of course, as always, what we will get through will be a function also of the competitive situation there.
And I remind you that our business is quite a lot larger in commercial than in private -- in Denmark, and we have very strong position within Commercial Denmark. We are looking at combined ventures at around 85%, 86%, depending on if you look at the quarter or year-to-date, which is a healthy profit. But we still continue to put through price increases above our expectations of the claims development.
We have another follow-up question from Thomas Svendsen from SEB.
Yes. This is Thomas again. So just on customer behavior in Private Norway. Is there -- this change in behavior by clients, do you see much more inbound call. Clients want to discuss the price? And also do you need to sort of get back to rescue clients that are leaving you? Is that an increased activity there within the net retention levels that you talk about?
We haven't seen any change this quarter compared to the last couple of quarters when it comes to that kind of activity. If you look at the number of customers, we are increasing the number of customers in our private portfolio in Norway compared to what we had year-end '24. So I'm very satisfied with the sales activity, distribution efficiency. But in all respect, we do talk more to customers during the last couple of quarters than we have done in the past due to all the high price increases, different types of customers meet across all insurance providers and for different insurance contracts.
I'll also remind you that the growth in Private Norway was although mainly price. We had an increase in the kind of the volume, the number of customers, as Geir mentioned, but also number of cars, houses, travel insurance policies and so on. So there's an underlying volume growth as well, although the main part of the growth is price driven.
And we have another follow-up question from Mediobanca.
Vinit from Mediobanca. The second question from me is on the inflation outlook, because I remember that we were all expecting you to provide an update on inflation in this quarter, and it appears to be unchanged versus Q2, whereas, obviously, in Q2, we heard you talk about reducing some of the price increases, and we see that in the numbers. So could you just comment that is this inflation being unchanged Q2 versus Q3, a surprise to you? And what are the drivers and are you still happy with lowering the price increase within Norway, even though inflation outlook is unchanged?
Starting with property in Norway, the actual inflation third quarter this year compared to -- or during the last 12 months was 4% and our expectation for the next 12 to 18 months is between 3% and 5%. That's a combination of repair cost and labor expenses in the property segment.
We -- when it comes to motor, actual inflation in the last 12 months, around 4.4% expected. The next 12 to 18 months is quite big interval between 3% to 6% and the kind of uncertainties regarding trade barriers and what's happening in especially in the motor industry. And so it's a kind of a certainty, and that's the reason for having big interval as well when it comes to inflation, expected inflation going forward. But -- as mentioned, we are having pricing measures at the moment, which are definitely above the expected inflation, including also what you have seen on the frequency development in the past.
May I also add that remember that these are the what we tell you about are the price increases that are in place for policies that will be renewing now, whereas the accounting effect is a function also of all the price increases and the levels of price increase that we had over the last 12 months, which we have informed about every quarter, which have over the last 12 months, bit slightly higher than the ones we are currently putting through to the customers. So there's an overhang of kind of all the previous price increases now. And as Geir said, given that these price increases are higher than what we expect, at least as a future claims development, that should bode for a margin improvement also further down the road.
And we have a new question from new caller, please introduce yourself and your affiliation.
It's Yulis from Autonomous Research. I was wondering if you could comment on the revenue growth dynamics in the near term. I mean, in the third quarter, your 13% year on growth was -- kind of helped by some one-off factors. At the same time, you're also -- because it can earn revenue, it's also benefiting and reflecting the higher rate increases that you implemented in the past year. So I was wondering whether that 13% is a sustainable level in the near term or whether it could potentially improve on the basis that it's reflecting the earned written premiums going forward?
First of all, I remind you that we talked about a onetime effect due to a change in principle on the home seller insurance. So the kind of current adjusted for currency, and that is 11.3%, which is kind of the level we report. And nonrecurring is, of course, not -- should not influence your forecast. So it's more like the 11%, which is based on the premiums that we have implemented over the last 12 months. And we've also given the growth numbers per segment. I think that is kind of the best way for you to try to predict what's going to happen.
And we combined -- commented on the kind of effects on Commercial Denmark, which is 6.4%, rather than 4.4% in the currency, if you adjust for an accounting effect last year and also that the Swedish number due to the accruals is underlying a bit higher than what we have reported, which is 2.7%. So it's more in the 6%, 7% range as well. I think that is the building blocks you should probably use for your estimate of future revenue development.
And we have another question, please caller introduce yourself.
It's Qian Lu, UBS. I just have one on the ongoing pricing measures in Norway, which slowed down quarter-on-quarter. I'm wondering if this is implying a more proactive strategy to enhance our competitiveness in the market and grow policy accounts? Or is it more of a reaction to increased competition in the market? And I guess related to this, given one of your peers has indicated that they plan to normalize price increases from next year onwards. I wonder how you are thinking about the time line for your price adjustments?
The price increases we are having at the moment and which are implemented as mentioned, it's above expected claims inflation and frequency development. The high level of price increases we have in the past is also a response on the frequency development we have seen during the last 2 years, especially on the motor side, but we have also seen some more volatility regarding property insurance, high number of fires in some quarters, more water-related claims and so on. So we have -- that's the reason in the past for doing quite heavily pricing measures and to improve the profitability, which was weaker going 2 years back.
Going forward, I'm not in a position, where I can comment on future price increases due to antitrust and competition rules. But we are only commenting on what we're doing and have done at the moment, and we are still having price increases, which is above frequency development and inflation numbers. And we don't expect the frequency development we have seen in the past. We don't expect that to continue in the kind of way it has done during the last couple of years, but we have seen especially -- for instance, on the motor side, we have seen in the last quarter, underlying development on the frequency side is between 1% and 2%, and we still expect to have some kind of frequency development also for motor going forward, but not at certain levels we have seen during the last 2 years.
And appears there are currently no further questions in the queue. With this, I will like to hand the call back over to Mitra for closing remarks. Over to you, ma'am.
Thank you. Thank you, everyone, for good questions. We will be participating in roadshow meetings and a seminar during the next few weeks, starting with Oslo today and London next week. Please see our financial calendar on the website for more details. So with that, thank you for your attention, and have a nice day.
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Gjensidige Forsikring — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Finanzdaten von Gjensidige Forsikring
Umsatz
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Umsatz (TTM) einfach erklärtDirekte Kosten
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Bruttoertrag
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Brutto Marge einfach erklärtVertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten
Die Vertriebs- & Verwaltungskosten (engl. Selling, General & Administrative expenses, kurz SG&A) beinhalten alle Aufwände für Marketing und den Verkauf sowie die allgemeine Verwaltung des Unternehmens.
Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten
Die Forschungs- und Entwicklungskosten (engl. research & development costs, kurz R&D) geben Auskunft darüber, wie viel das Unternehmen in die Forschung und die Entwicklung seiner Produkte investiert. Vor allem prozentual vom Umsatz und im Vergleich zu direkten Wettbewerbern sind die Kosten interessant.
EBITDA
Das EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen, Steuern und Abschreibungen. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von der EBITDA-Marge.
Abschreibungen
Abschreibungen stellen Wertminderungen von Vermögensgegenständen des Unternehmens dar (z.B. durch Abnutzung von Maschinen).
EBIT (Operatives Ergebnis)
Das EBIT (engl. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) ist der Gewinn des Unternehmens vor Zinsen und Steuern, das auch als operatives Ergebnis bezeichnet wird. Berechnet man den prozentualen Anteil vom Umsatz, spricht man von
der EBIT-Marge.
Nettogewinn
Der Nettogewinn stellt den Gewinn oder Verlust nach Abzug aller Kosten dar.
Nettogewinn einfach erklärtaktien.guide Premium
| Jun '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Umsatz & Prämien | 43.797 43.797 |
8 %
8 %
100 %
|
|
| - Versicherungsleistungen | 37.260 37.260 |
9 %
9 %
85 %
|
|
| Rohertrag | 6.537 6.537 |
6 %
6 %
15 %
|
|
| - Vertriebs- und Verwaltungskosten | - - |
-
-
|
|
| - Sonst. betrieblicher Aufwand | -6,90 -6,90 |
-
0 %
|
|
| EBITDA | - - |
-
-
|
|
| - Abschreibungen | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBIT (Operating Income) EBIT | 6.544 6.544 |
6 %
6 %
15 %
|
|
| - Netto-Zinsaufwand | - - |
-
-
|
|
| - Steueraufwand | 2.121 2.121 |
2 %
2 %
5 %
|
|
| Nettogewinn | 6.959 6.959 |
6 %
6 %
16 %
|
|
Angaben in Millionen NOK.
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| Hauptsitz | Norwegen |
| CEO | Mr. Holmgren |
| Mitarbeiter | 4.150 |
| Gegründet | 1922 |
| Webseite | www.gjensidige.no |


