Autoliv Aktie

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Autoliv Inc. third quarter 2026 Financial Results Webcast and Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Anders Trapp, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Welcome everyone to our third quarter 2026 earnings call. On this call, we have our President and Chief Executive Officer, Mikael Bratt; our Chief Financial Officer, Monika Grama; and Anders Trapp, Investor Relations. During today's earnings call, we will highlight several key areas, including our strong performance in a challenging market environment, ongoing mitigation actions to offset cost headwinds. We're going to give an update on the latest market developments and our shareholder returns and our full year guidance and the potential impact of ongoing geopolitical and market challenges. Following the presentation, we will be available to answer your questions. As usual, the slides are available on autoliv.com. Turning to the next slide, we have the safe harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows.

During the presentation, we will reference non-U.S. GAAP measures. The reconciliations of historical U.S. GAAP to non-U.S. GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly earnings release available on autoliv.com and in the 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC and at the end of this presentation. Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3 p.m. Central European Daylight Saving Time. So please follow the limit of two questions per person. I will now hand over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide.

We delivered a strong third quarter in a tough environment with adjusted operating margin exceeding our earlier indications and reflecting disciplined execution across the business. The progress we achieved during the quarter reinforces our confidence in further profitability improvement through year end. Together with strong customer partnerships and ongoing efficiency initiatives, we believe we are well positioned to continue delivering value for our stakeholders. Our positive sales momentum in Asia continued during the quarter. In China, we once again outperformed the competition driven by strong growth with Chinese OEMs, where our sales outperformed by almost 20 percentage points. In India, we grew sales by nearly 30% organically, reflecting mainly the trend of increased safety content in vehicles in India. Adjusted operating margin reached 9.7%, ahead of earlier indication, reflecting strong operational execution and higher engineering income.

I am pleased that our cash flow was strong despite working capital buildup due to strong sales in September. In the quarter, we repurchased over 1.2 million shares for $150 million and paid dividends of $63 million. Based on what we know today, we reiterate our full year 2026 guidance of flat organic sales with continued significant outperformance of light vehicle production, both with Chinese OEMs and in India. Following the first nine months of the year and continued raw material headwinds and higher logistic costs, we have narrowed down our adjusted operating margin guidance to be around 10.5%, which is at the low end of the range of around 10.5% to 11%. This reflects the effectiveness of the mitigation actions outlined later in the presentation. Operating cash flow guidance remains unchanged. CAPEX is now expected to be around 4% of sales compared with the previous expectations of less than 5% of sales.

We also have several positive developments to highlight from the quarter, both in terms of our footprint and our product offering. Expanding in China is key to strengthening Autoliv's innovation, global competitiveness, and long-term growth. To support this and our growing partnerships with Chinese OEMs, we have opened our second R&D center in China. We also launched the Human Body Model Safety Suite, a virtual safety development platform that helps automakers evaluate occupant protection through advanced crash simulations. By helping customers improve safety performance earlier and shorten development time, it strengthens Autoliv's value proposition and growth opportunities. Looking now on the next slide. Third quarter sales were virtually unchanged despite light vehicle production declining.

This was due to outperforming relative to light vehicle production, including tariff-related compensation, favorable currency effects. Adjusted operating income for the third quarter decreased by 3% to $262 million. The decline reflects a $15 million supplier compensation, which benefited the third quarter of last year. The adjusted operating margin was 9.7%, 30 basis points lower than last year. Operating cash flow was $239 million, a decrease of $19 million. Looking now on the next slide. We continue to deliver broad-based operational improvements.

Our positive direct labor productivity trend continued during the quarter, supported by the execution of our strategic initiatives, including automation and digitalization. Gross profit decreased by $26 million with the gross margin declining from 19.3% to 18.4%. Approximately half of the year-over-year decline was attributable to the noted supplier compensation recognized in the prior year. Looking ahead, we expect fourth quarter gross margin to develop favorably compared to Q4 '25. All RD&E net expenses decreased year over year, driven by higher engineering income. As previously communicated, the increase in engineering income was primarily related to the timing of specific customer development projects. SG&A expense remained virtually unchanged, both year-over-year and sequentially.

Turning to the light vehicle market development in the third quarter, let's move to the next slide. According to Mobility Global's October forecast, global light vehicle production declined by 1.9% in the third quarter, approximately 20 basis points below the expectations in July. The weaker than expected production environment was primarily driven by lower volumes in China among global OEMs, as well as softer production in North America and Japan. This was partly offset by stronger than expected performance in India and South America. The regional mix of global light vehicle production was approximately 90 basis points unfavorable during the quarter, mainly reflecting stronger production growth in lower content markets relative to other regions. Despite these market headwinds, our sales remained virtually unchanged year over year, supported by our continued outperformance relative to light diesel production, favorable currency effects and tariff related compensation. We will talk about the expected market development in the fourth quarter more in detail later in the presentation.

Call-off accuracy has deteriorated somewhat compared with the beginning of the year, driven mainly by China, while other regions have returned to almost normal levels. Maintaining high call-off accuracy remains critical as it enables efficient production planning, inventory management and optimal capacity utilization across our operations. Looking now on our sales growth in more detail on the next slide. Our consolidated quarterly net sales was virtually unchanged despite market headwinds. Excluding currencies, our organic sales decreased $30 million or by 1%. Based on the latest light vehicle production data from Mobility Global, we underperformed the market by almost 1 percentage point globally. In Asia, excluding China, we outperformed the market by almost 3 percentage points, driven by continued strong sales growth in India, where we outperformed by 11 percentage points.

Japan also contributed to the outperformance as we outperformed in Japan by almost 4 percentage points. In China, we delivered outperformance of around 1 percentage point, mainly because our sales growth to Chinese OEMs exceeded the light vehicle production growth by almost 20 percentage points. As a result, Chinese OEMs accounted for 58% of sales in China in the quarter, compared to 46% for the same period last year. While performance in America overall was in line with light vehicle production, North America delivered stronger results, outperforming light vehicle production by 2 percentage points. Globally, Chery, Suzuki and Nio were the largest drivers of sales during the quarter. Despite light vehicle production decline in China, China accounted for 20% of sales, Asia, excluding China, accounted for 20%, Americas for 34%, and EMEA for only 26% due to summer shutdowns. Moving on to the next slide. The third quarter of 2026 saw a high number of new launches, primarily in China, but also in Americas.

The strong launch activity in China reflects Autoliv's continued momentum in this strategically important market and supports our ongoing outperformance relative to the market. Higher content per vehicle was driven in part by the adaptation of front center airbags across many of these new vehicles, as well as pedestrian protection systems. From a sales potential perspective, the BMW X5 and iX5 were the most significant launches during the quarter. Looking ahead, we expect a substantially higher number of launches in the fourth quarter compared with the same period last year, making 2026 a record year in terms of launch activity. This record will not stand for long as we expect a new record launch year again in 2027. Let's continue with the next slide. I will now hand over to Monika.

Thank you, Mikael. I will talk about the financials more in detail on the next few slides. Turning to the next slide. This slide highlights our key figures for the third quarter of 2026 compared to the same quarter of 2025. Net sales were $2.7 billion, representing a 0.5% decrease. Gross profit decreased by $26 million and gross margin decreased by 90 basis points. The driver behind the lower gross profit was mainly the $12.5 million supplier compensation in 2025, as Mikael mentioned, as well as higher costs for raw materials. This was partly offset by positive FX effects and supplier cost reduction. The adjusted operating income decreased from $271 million to $262 million, and the adjusted operating margin decreased from 10.0% to 9.7%. The reported operating income of $254 million was $8 million lower than the adjusted operating income, mainly related to capacity alignment activities. The adjusted earnings per share diluted, decreased by 13 cents to $2.19. The main drivers were 16 cents from higher taxes, 9 cents from lower operating income, partly offset by 11 cents from lower number of outstanding shares, diluted.

Our adjusted return on capital employed and adjusted return on equity were solid, 24% and 25% respectively. We repurchased shares for $150 million and paid a dividend of $0.87 per share. Now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In the third quarter of 2026, adjusted operating income decreased by $9 million year-over-year. Operational contributed $34 million despite slightly lower sales, primarily driven by cost reduction activities. RD&E and SG&A net had a $17 million positive effect, mainly reflecting $26 million higher RD&E reimbursements. This includes $2 million of unfavorable foreign exchange translation effects. This was partly offset by the $15 million supplier compensation that positively impacted last year's results. Raw material costs had a gross negative impact of $42 million in the quarter, with non-ferrous metals and oil-related components accounting for the majority of the increase.

During the quarter, we achieved customer compensation covering more than 80% of tariff costs. However, tariff-related headwinds still reduced our adjusted operating margin by around 35 basis points, including dilutive effects. Looking now at cash flow on the next slide. Operating cash flow decreased by $19 million to $239 million compared to the prior year, mainly because of lower net income. Net working capital in relation to sales was 13.5% at the end of the quarter compared to 13.9% a year ago. The improvement was mainly driven by higher payables in relation to sales, while inventories and receivables to sales were relatively unchanged. Free operating cash flow was positive $124 million compared to positive $153 million in the prior year.

Capital expenditure net increased by €9 million year over year. Capital expenditure as a percentage of sales rose to 4.3% compared with 3.9% in the prior year, mainly reflecting increased investments in production and RD&E equipment. The cash conversion was 80%, in line with our target of at least 80%. Year-to-date operating cash flow decreased by $15 million to $598 million compared to the prior year. Now looking on the next slide. Over the years, Autoliv has consistently demonstrated its ability to generate strong cash flow across a variety of market conditions. Over the last 12 months, we returned approximately $760 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Looking at the past five years, we have returned a total of $2.9 billion directly to shareholders, while at the same time strengthening our balance sheet and improving our leverage profile.

This includes more than $1.7 billion in share repurchases and nearly $1.2 billion in dividends. During this five-year period, we reduced our outstanding share numbers of approximately 18%. As of quarter end, approximately $1.9 billion remained available for repurchase under the current board authorized share repurchase program out of the total of $2.5 billion original authorization. Our capital allocation decisions are guided by a disciplined assessment of our balance sheet, cash flow outlook, leverage, credit ratings, and market conditions with a continued focus on delivering long-term shareholder value. Now, looking on our debt leverage ratio development on the next slide. Autoliv's balanced leverage strategy reflects our prudent financial management, enabling resilience, innovation, and sustained stakeholder value over time. Our leverage ratio was 1.3 times at quarter end compared with 1.2 times a quarter ago.

The increase was driven by a roughly $64 million increase in net debt during the quarter, combined with a modest $6 million decrease in trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA. Despite a quarter-over-quarter increase, our leverage remains at a low level and well within our targeted capital structure. On to the next slide. I will now hand it back to Mikael.

Thank you, Monika. I will talk about the outlook for the remaining of 2026 more detailed on the next few slides. Turning to the next slide. Mobility Global now expects global light vehicle production to decline by 1.9% in 2026, almost 2 percentage points downgrade from its January forecast, primarily driven by weaker outlooks for China and the Middle East, as the industry continues to face the effects of the conflict in the Middle East and soft demand in China, partly offset by resilient vehicle sales in other markets. For the fourth quarter, Mobility Global forecast global light vehicle production to decline by approximately 4.5% year over year. The expected decline is largely driven by lower production in China, where softer domestic demand is only partially offset by continued strength in exports. As a result, Mobility Global has reduced its fourth quarter outlook for Chinese light vehicle production to a 9% decline.

In the Americas, light vehicle production is expected to decline by approximately 2%, reflecting inventory adjustments in North America. In Europe, production is expected to decrease by around 1% as automakers continue to face increasing competitive pressure from Chinese manufacturers. In contrast, Mobility Global has significantly upgraded its Japan outlook to 2% growth from 12% decline. This is driven by production recovery following Q3 plant disruptions caused by natural disasters, continued strong exports of fuel efficient hybrid vehicles to the U.S. and Europe. Despite the expected year-over-year decline in global light vehicle production in Q4, production is forecast to increase sequentially by more than 1 million units or approximately 5%. Now looking on the fourth quarter development more in detail on the next slide. As we look ahead to the remainder of the year, we remain focused on managing a dynamic external environment.

We are closely monitoring the potential impact of geopolitical developments in the Middle East, which continues to affect supply chain, raw material cost, and overall vehicle demand. Despite this uncertainty, we expect our financial performance to strengthen in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter. Margin expansion is supported by higher sales volume, increased engineering income and customer compensation related to raw material inflation. In addition, our ongoing cost efficiency initiatives, including greater automation and digitalization across our operations, are expected to further enhance profitability and operating leverage. Combined, these actions are expected to result in a meaningful, stronger margin profile by year end. Despite market headwinds, we expect strong free cash flow generation to continue throughout the year, supporting the ongoing execution of our share repurchase program and dividends. Looking at our full year guidance, there are several factors expected to weigh on the adjusted operating margin.

Throughout the year, we have taken proactive measures to mitigate the additional headwinds impact in 2026. These are presented in more detail on the next slide. When our original full year 2026 guidance was set in January, our assumptions reflected a significantly more favorable cost environment than what we see now. Since then, the business has faced additional headwinds amounting to approximately 170 to 280 basis points. To address these headwinds, we have taken a broad range of commercial, operational, and cost-efficiency actions, including improving direct labor productivity through optimization, digitalization, and continuous improvement initiatives. Accelerating Value Engineering and Value Analysis Initiative. Implementing SG&A cost reduction measures, and tighter spending controls. Securing raw material recovery through customer negotiations and indexation. Delivering savings through commercial negotiations with suppliers.

Through disciplined execution of these initiatives, we expect to offset most of the incremental headwinds. As a result, the net impact on our full year adjusted operating margin is expected to be limited, demonstrating the resilience of our business model and our ability to proactively manage a challenging cost environment. Looking now on the next slide. This slide shows our full year guidance, which excludes effects from capacity alignment and antitrust-related matters. It is based on no material changes to tariffs or trade restrictions that are in effect as of October 15, 2026, as well as no significant challenges in the macroeconomic environment changes in customer call-off volatility or significant supply chain disruptions. We expect to outperform light vehicle production by around 2 percentage points as our organic sales is expected to be flat while global light vehicle production is expected to decline by 2%. The currency translation effect on sales is expected to be around 2.5% positive.

While market headwinds have prompted a slight adjustment to our outlook, change is relatively minor. The guidance for adjusted operating margin is now narrowed to around 10.5%, the low end of our range of around 10.5% to 11%. Operating cash flow is expected to be around $1.2 billion. We expect CAPEX to be around 4% of sales compared to previous guidance of less than 5%. Our strong cash flow generation and disciplined capital spending support our continued commitment to delivering attractive share of returns. We expect a tax rate of around 30%. Looking on the next slide. This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call and we would like to open the line for questions from analysts and investors.

Before I do that, I would like to make a small correction there to my comment when it comes to the sales growth and regional sales split in the Q3. I accidentally said that we underperformed the market by almost 1%. It should of course be we outperformed the market by almost 1 percentage point globally in the third quarter. So, with that correction, I would now like to hand it over to Madeleine, our operator.

[Operator Instructions] We are now going to take our first question. And this question comes from Tom Narayan from RBC. Please go ahead.

Yes, the first one is on the EMEA performance versus the market. You mentioned there were some shutdowns there, but I guess I would think that would have impacted the market as a whole, not just I believe the perhaps it was related to these exports into Europe. I'm not sure what your indexation is to those, but just some color on the EMEA underperformance in the quarter, and then I have a follow-up.

Sure, thank you for your question. I think, first of all, I would say that, I mean, yes, Europe is a challenging market. And here we have some swings between the different OEMs. So, I mean, there are elements of customer mix from our point of view. I think we have said before here that our market share ambition globally is to protect the market share we have. And if you come to the more, I mean, mature markets, you have more of a stable situation there. And then when you see some shifts, between the customers, of course, it gets a bigger impact than normally if you're in a growth mode or so.

So I should not read into much into those swings you see there. I would also say that, of course, you are impacting this also well when you see export from China coming into Europe. But since we are on most of those vehicles also, you have maybe, you know, seemingly a minus in the European business, but we have a plus in China. And that doesn't come through when you look at the numbers region by region like that. I would say it's not that that's why, but it's one reason why maybe we emphasize more the overall market share development and outperformance here than the regional shifts. But of course, key here is to grow for us with the OEMs that are growing and taking market shares globally, which we are doing here. And I think the strong outperformance with Chinese OEMs in the quarter here is another evidence of exactly that in India.

Yes. And for my follow-up, you know, you described the raw material cost increase resulting in the basic guidance cut, and I believe it was $10 million impact to the '26 numbers. I know you're not giving '27 guidance today, but just curious how we should think about the raw material cost increase leading into '27. Is the expectation that you could all of that with recoveries in the year, or is this a similar dynamic that there's a... Just kind of a bleeding that happens to forward periods. Like, I guess, how should we think about this?

As you commented, we don't give any details around 2027 yet. It's in connection with the earnings call for Q4, but I would say that when it comes to raw materials, I would say that we expect it to be as challenging in 2027 as it has been in 2026. I would say that's as much as we can comment really on that specifically. So I would say no headwind or tailwind coming from that, but of course we are seeing 2026 as a very challenging year. Translates and moves into 2027 when when when when we get there, but more details to come.

All right.

We are now going to take our next question. And this question comes from Emmanuel Rosner from Wolfer Research. Please go ahead.

Okay, maybe first question focusing on the implied post quarter outlook implied by your guidance. So this would obviously be a very high margin around 14% or so. Can you maybe give us some sort of sense of how much visibility and confidence you have in some of these drivers of margins step up and in particular to the extent, you know, the recovery is there, you know, are those already secured? Is that, you know, where are you, I guess, in that negotiation process?

Sure. I think, first of all, Q4 is the stronger quarter in the year, as you know. And I think with the full year guidance here, we are confirming that that's also the case this year. And of course, one part that makes it stronger is the engineering income that will be a part also this year. We have alluded to the higher sales and and also as Mobility Global says here now, so another 1 million units in Q4 compared to Q3. So support trust in the sequential, development there. Otherwise, I mean, it is to to really drive here the customer compensation and tariff recovery in line with with what we have done throughout the year here. And I think we have a good momentum there.

We, I would say, maybe this year compared to other years is that, and which is part of the guidance, of course, it's nothing on top of there. But as we understand that the full year impact here is of course that this cost pressure continues throughout the year here and makes it very tight to also fix the full year effect in the year, which more speaks to that we are on the lower end of the range than anywhere else in the range there. But I mean, we move into the fourth quarter here with confidence. I think the Autoliv team has done a great job maneuvering through this. And as you saw here, I mean, the additional headwind on top of what we expected in the beginning of the year, I mean, 1.8 percentage points more is quite meaningful, I would say, that we have absorbed here through price compensations and also our own cost out activities here. And that also includes material cost optimization with the suppliers also, of course, that we do our part there. So, I think we have a good activity plan.

For the fourth quarter. Okay, I appreciate the color. And then as a second question, maybe focusing on China, so I appreciate the color on the breakdown between, you know, and your performance between global and Chinese, you know, local OEMs. Can you maybe comment on, you know, what is, you know, what portion of your business in China is geared towards exports and any thoughts on to the extent there are some measures being put around the world to limit some of these exports, whether there would be a good thing for you or on a relative basis or a bad thing, something that we should focus on?

Yes, I think in first of all I think that starting point the export vehicles tend to, I mean we don't have a separate supply chain for the export vehicles or the domestic vehicles for our respective customer in China. It's the same models and then the specification may differ but in most circumstances I mean it's the same type of product so we don't really see that difference which vehicle goes where in that regard. But as I said, we are managing these dynamics in a good way, thanks to our global presence and high market share in the total market. And we have talked about that before that we have a strong diversified portfolio with a widespread representation among the different customers. So if it moves in between, we are, on the platforms that also are gaining it's some traditional are losing, you could say, in all this. And if there would be more, let's say, restrictions coming up between the regions on, you know, you can't export, you need to localize, with our footprint, we can support the customer that then wants or forced to localize the order and to export from another region. So I think that's really a strength without a doubt here is that we can offer our customers a lot of flexibility.

And I mean, if you talk specifically about the Chinese OEMs exporting from China versus Europe and you need to localize in Europe, I mean, today we are already part of the China supply chain for them if they have that set up with CKD, for example, or if they want to localize, then we can support them with local production. So I would say we're well prepared for whatever comes in terms of that dynamic.

We are now going to take our next question. And this question comes from Chris McNally from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

I just wanted to follow on to Emmanuel's question, maybe to put some numbers to it. We're all trying to figure out this Chinese algorithm, right, which kind of gets a little bit more, the numbers just become less dramatic Q4 and next year. For the implied Q4, are you expecting that China organic growth will go sort of back to positive? And then again, for 2027, it's early, but we all kind of know that the exports will be up, whether that's 10 or 20 percent. We're all in debate. But is the expectation that we will still have Chinese organic growth, given your sort of, you know, customer mix.

I don't know if I would like to give a number there, but what I mean as you said, I mean the light vehicle production according to Mobility Global is negative in China. But with that said, I have great confidence in our say future development of continuing to grow with the Chinese OEMs as we move forward. So, yes, I think we we are on the right trajectory here. It's the LVP that gives the the delta to speak at the end of the day here, but that we I think you have to wait to see what the net number is, but we are on a good trajectory with the Chinese OEMs and I expect it to continue to grow that's my my uh.

Yes, so sorry, so sort of a paraphrase is that the growth over market should remain a significant driver, but you're focused on the light vehicle, which is obviously pretty negative in Q4, so maybe that's an unfair question, and then '27 is a little bit easier. Okay, perfect. And then if we could just zone in on the inflation, right, the 180 basis point. If you have so many pass-throughs, right, the timing we all know, that will be somewhat of a pressure into next year. But I was curious, of the 180 basis points, how much was actually the Thailand... flooding and logistics right we heard from GM this this week that logistics you know what was a headwind in Q3 Q4 could typically those would not be compensated so just curious if you can call out either or as a bucket sort of those those two because those are kind of one-offs.

Connected to the Thailand flooding, we see we can call it not material impact in our results in Q4. Of course, this is considering coverage from our property damage and business interruption insurance. And then connected to the logistics cost, we see indeed in some of the divisions double digit cost increases, especially in the North America. To offset this, we have taken logistic optimization initiatives to reduce the mileage. That is partly compensating the cost. As you well know, this is a cost very difficult to pass on. So there is a limited impact that, to a large extent, we are looking on other compensating effects to recover and not say one-to-one in the same area.

Okay, excellent. Great detail.

We are now going to take our next question. And this one comes from Winnie Dong from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

I wanted to just follow up on the years guide. I understand that you've narrowed the margin to the lower end. Was there anything that's more specific? I think you've talked a lot about cost already, but anything specific that pushes you to the low end of that range? And then to a certain extent, what sort of light do you think carries into 2027?

I think, I mean, as we have alluded to here is the higher than expected cost pressure that we have seen across the board here. I mean, we have had on one of these slides, I think the team has done a great job to offset such a large portion of it that we still can be in the range. So good job there. I think what is more, you know, moving into '27 is really what we talked about here before, connected to the raw materials. I would say that we expect that to continue to be some headwinds. So, I think that slide is really a good summary of why it's the lower end and not the upper.

Got it. Separately, I kind of want to ask about mobility safety solutions, and specifically, I mean there's a product in terms of safety switch outside of vehicles. You're kind of marketing them for battery energy storage, etc. Which seems like, you know, one of the few ways to get growth that's not tied to LVP. So just any initial takes on how to frame the opportunities there.

I think it's an interesting opportunity here in the light of the electrification that is going on in society. We are having a dedicated team here to develop that business and here we're talking about both high voltage and low voltage, etc. to see what we are doing there. And I mean, we have interesting, and we are also growing this business as we speak. Then we have decided and elected not to give too much details and numbers at this point in time, because we believe that it's more meaningful to come back to you when we have meaningful progress. Volumes around that and can talk more in great detail. It's a little bit of a, you could say, startup phase right now, but interesting opportunities in the midterm for sure.

Great.

We are now going to take our next question. And this one comes from José Asumendi from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Two quick questions, please. Hi, Mikael. Can you talk about the level of activity in '27 versus '26, just broadly, if you see more product launches coming up in '27 versus '26? Whether you are seeing any substantial production stoppages in Europe in the month of November. And question two is just simply a confirmation that when you think about the raw material negotiations you're having, that you are not in the camp of seeing spillover and negotiations of raw materials going into '27, that you're confident with the raw material discussions in we heard from all the suppliers that we're seeing some spillover of these discussions confirming that '26 raw materials will be negotiated and closed.

Thank you for your question. I think 2027 and launches here, we expect to see a higher number of launches in 2027. So we see that that continues to increase and I would say we have a high activity level comes to closing new orders and new deals here. Gives us this effect. So that's a positive I think when we look out for next year, and especially then, I guess, in combination with the LVP outlook that Mobility Global have indicated for next year as well. I think when it comes to the challenge around raw material negotiations here, I wouldn't maybe say specifically raw materials alone. It's in general the cost pressure that we see right now that has been throughout the year also continuing into Q4. But that's a part of the guidance we have for the full year. So the answer to your question is not changing that picture.

That's important to remember. But that's a part of, as I said, the lower end of the range here is also the fact that it's difficult to finish those holding locations with the cost pressure that we see coming now in November and October, November to finish that before the year end. But that's because it's continuing to increase. So it's no indication on more difficult or complicated negotiations, it's just that the the regular time between the impact and the closure becomes shorter this year as it continues up. But once again, it's embedded in what we have indicated for the full years. It's nothing on top of very important.

That's super helpful. On any major questions. Stoppages in Europe? You're not seeing anything or are you seeing any elements there?

No, nothing to point out. I think of course we are always watchful for any activities there and as you come closer to the year and depending on inventory levels and so on with the OEMs but we have no visibility or indications at this point in time. I think also looking at the inventory levels in Europe, as far as we can see, it is quite imbalanced also. So there is no indication for any abnormal things there. So yes. We should be okay, but that's an industry.

We are now going to take our next question. And this one comes from Agnieszka Vilela from Nordea. Please go ahead.

And hi, Mikael, Monika and Anders. Just one question from me, and that's on R&D. I think you mentioned that you received somewhat more engineering income in the quarter than what you expected. Can you quantify by how much? And also, do you still expect a positive contribution from engineering income in the quarter? And then maybe in relation to that, looking forward, what kind of net R&D costs do you expect into 2027, either in relation to sales or on absolute level?

Thank you, Agnieszka, for the question. Connected to Q4, as we guided we expect a sequential improvement compared to Q3 and engineering income increase is one of the drivers of this improvement. So yes, it is a positive contributor further in Q4. And on the long-term range, we expect pretty similar RD&E net of sales as we had in the previous period. So it's no major change that we can expect. We can announce at this point. This is pretty the trend that we want to maintain and in line with our expectations.

Another kind of delta that you saw in Q3 specifically, I think you mentioned that it was a bit better than what you expected on the engineering income.

As mentioned, it was better compared to prior year and in the first quarter this year we suffered of a negative impact compared to prior year and it was part of the phasing to a large extent.

We're now going to take the next question. And this one comes from Hampus Singelau from Handelsbanken. Please go ahead.

Just one question for me and that's maybe if Mikael if you could just share some if you know of course in the launches for 2027 are they only like back and loaded or the front and loaded or should you like expect them like gradually throughout the year if you have any any on that would be helpful.

Yeah, I think it's not any dramatic facing on it. It's of course not equally distributed between the quarter. There are some strong quarters. I don't have exactly on top of my head the contribution there, but it's no dramatic, it's not like it's a half of them in Q1 or something like that. It's a normal fluctuation as you see in the previous year.

Okay, so very normal, I was expecting a bit. Fair enough.

We are now going to take the next question. And this one comes from Stephen Benamou from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Yes, I have two questions please. The first one is on your guidance for Q4. So your for your guidance implies around 400 pips of outperformance for the last quarter, well above the outperformance delivered in your previous quarters and despite a tougher comp base. So what gives you confidence into this acceleration. This is my first question. And my second question is about your for a full year guidance adjustment. So now you're expecting around 10.5% versus between 10.5% to 11%. So should we read that as a floor or is there any scenario where the full year guide, yes, the full year performance could be below 10.5% that this is my second question.

No, I think when it comes to the guidance for the fourth quarter, I would like to come back to what I said earlier here, which is that we enter now Q4 with the confidence of the fact that we have very clear activities lined up here for the fourth quarter to support the numbers here. I mean, starting what we see here is on the sequence. I mean, first of all, Q4 is the stronger quarter. It's always the stronger compared to the previous quarters. Also this year, because there is seasonality to it. What we see now also sequentially here is that, I mean, despite the, I would say, very challenging quarter that we have been in, the team managed to deliver slightly better than what we expected into the quarter we were here in July. And that is because we delivering well on our improvement activities that we have as an incremental part of our strategy to have an earnings growth all together. So, of course, when we have all these headwinds, those activities are helping us.

So the higher sales is one, the tariff compensation and customer compensation is are cornerstones that is critical here of course, where we have a good momentum in this as we have seen. We have the higher sales of the 1 million vehicles. Once again on the sequential development here. And that makes us see that we should be able to deliver on what we have indicated before. And actually it has strengthened the case for Q4 compared to July since we delivered stronger in Q3. So the momentum carries through into Q4 before is our expectations here. And that's why we have the confidence, as you said here, to make this step here. And of course, I mean, we don't guide for the future years here more than to say that, I mean, the range for this year was a reflection of the uncertainty in the market and the volatility in the market that we see.

But I'm really happy that we are able to stay within this range, and I think that's really sign of strength here. When we move forward here, I mean, our ambition is still, and target is still to get to the 12. So our earnings growth is something we're working on very hard with the different levers that we have identified and communicated before. So that's still laid as the foundation. Then of course if you come in with the floor or not, I mean it depends I would say of course on the external circumstances here. I mean if we have a pandemic year again, I mean who knows. So it's a very difficult question to answer, rather than to say that we believe that we have an earnings growth built into our activity plans under normal circumstances.

Maybe if I can just add a follow-up question regarding the top line. Back to China. Can you please clarify why China turned negative organically in Q3? Because so you delivered outperformance, but when I look at Q1 and Q2, the market was very challenging and you've delivered positive organic growth. So why you turned negative in Q3 and why you are more optimistic for Q4.

I think I mean what all that is referring to is the light vehicle production development that is quite significant. I think so far we have been compensated with the exports. I mean the domestic sales gone down, global exports has gone up and offset the large part of that. I think we see that the export opportunities, the limits that the offsetting factor, and that's really the LVP growth. I think, as I said before, our own ability to continue to grow and outperform the Chinese OEMs continues. So we will be comfortable in our own activities and I'll calm down. All right.

We have time for one last quick question. And this question comes from Itay Michaeli from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

You've done a really good job of mitigating the 180 basis points or mostly mitigating the impact this year, but I'm curious to what degree, if any, are some of these mitigation actions a pull forward from initiatives you were planning for subsequent years, and could that affect the kind of trajectory towards your 12% margin target.

I would say no. I mean what we do is I mean we take I mean you saw in in the last quarter here, Q2 here, we announced the Turkey which is an effort to also to continue to strengthen us mid-term and long-term. So I mean we constantly work with our activities plan to make sure that we have enough activities to secure our growth journey as well as making sure that we can offset new headwinds that comes our way. So it's never done. It's a constant work on all that. So I would say what we have done now to offset this is really, as we said before, even more strict control, SG&A activity. Enhancing the productivity in our plants and applying new technology. I think that's also very, very interesting and interesting inspiring is also that when we are on this journey, I mean, with continuous improvements, you know, you're never done, it's always another 20, 25% potential there, but now with the new technologies, we see that we also can take more leaps, uh, bigger leaps in in productivity here, to applying things that were not available technically maybe two years ago, but today it is. So the whole optimization journey potential grows as we move forward and that's really the focus here to keep up the high pace on that to to manage the headwinds and our own growth.

That's very, very helpful. As a super quick follow-up, maybe just talk through the drivers of the lower CAPEX to sales guidance this year and how sustainable that might be into next year.

So as mentioned, we are narrowing our guidance for CAPEX to around 4%. It's a phasing of activities... We prefer to prioritize activities that have a higher payback and we continue to invest now more accelerated in Q3. But it's pretty just phasing related to our investments and the prioritization to the higher payback projects.

That's helpful.

That was the last question for today. I will now hand the call back to Mikael Bratt, President and CEO, for closing remarks.

Thank you, Madeleine. Looking on the next slide. Before we conclude today's call, I would like to invite you to Autoliv's Investor Day, taking place on 26th and 27th of April in next year, 2027 in Shanghai, China. Events will feature management presentations and visits to our operations, combined with a full day at Shanghai Auto Show 2027, the world's leading automotive exhibition. Attendees will also have the opportunity to experience Autoliv's latest safety innovations and technologies showcased at the event. We look forward to welcoming you to Shanghai for an insightful and exciting two days. Finally, our fourth quarter call is scheduled for Friday, January 29, 2027. Thank you for your attention. Until next time, stay safe.

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

This live transcript is auto-generated without human intervention or review.

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Autoliv Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Anders Trapp. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Anders. Welcome, everyone, to our second quarter 2026 earnings call. On this call, we have our President and Chief Executive Officer, Mikael Bratt; our Chief Financial Officer, Monika Grama and me, Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations.

During today's earnings call, we will highlight several key areas, including our strong performance despite the challenged market environment. We will provide an update on our structural cost reduction initiatives in EMEA, an update on the latest market development and our full year guidance and the potential impact of ongoing political challenges. Following the presentation, we will be available to answer questions. As usual, the slides are available on autoliv.com.

Turning to the next slide. We have the safe harbor statement which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows. During the presentation, we will reference non-U.S. GAAP measures. The reconciliations of historical U.S. GAAP to non-U.S. GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly earnings release available on autoliv.com and in the 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC and also at the end of the presentation.

Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3 p.m. Central European Time. So please, follow a limit of two questions per person. I now hand it over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide. We delivered a record second quarter, both for sales and adjusted operating income underscoring the resilience of our company and the strength of our market position, supported by strong customer partnerships and the relentless focus and continuous improvement. We have built a solid momentum for the rest of the year.

During the quarter, we also navigated geopolitical development effectively mitigating the impact of tariffs supply chain disruptions and raw material cost volatility. And as you might have seen in the report, I will hear from us during this call, we had several positive and negative onetime items in the quarter. This includes a supplier settlement reversion from Q3 2025, an IEEPA refund government income in India, an impairment charge related to restructuring activities in Turkey and a reverse expected credit loss reserve. Combined, these items have virtually no impact on the adjusted operating margin and only a slight negative impact on the top line.

Our positive sales momentum in Asia continued during the quarter. In China, we once again outperformed light vehicle production, driven by strong growth with Chinese OEMs, where our sales outperformed by more than 40 percentage points. In India, we grew sales by 36% organically, reflecting mainly the spend of increased safety content in vehicles in India. Adjusted operating income and margin improvement improved despite raw material headwinds, particularly higher helium prices. The strong performance was primarily driven by higher sales and well-executed activities to improve efficiency and costs.

I am pleased that our cash flow improved in line with our expectations, resulting in record operating cash flow for the second quarter and supporting our ambitious shareholder return strategy. Despite repurchasing over 1.6 million shares for USD 200 million and paying a dividend of USD 64 million, our leverage ratio improved to 1.2x. During the quarter, we announced additional structural cost initiatives which we will elaborate on in the next slide.

Based on what we know today, we reiterate our full year 2026 guidance of flat organic sales with continued significant outperformance of light vehicle production in both China and India. We continue to expect an adjusted operating margin of around 10.5% to 11%. This is based on the assumption that global light vehicle production will decline by around 2.5% and that the gross headwind from raw materials is around USD 110 million. I'm also proud that we signed strategic cooperation agreements with leading Chinese vehicle manufacturers, Great Wall Motor and XPENG. These agreements mark important milestones in our strategy to expand with leading Chinese vehicle manufacturers and further demonstrate the competitiveness of our safety solutions. They strengthen our position as a trusted safety partner and creates a strong platform for sustainable long-term growth, both in China and globally as they expand their footprint.

Looking now on our continued cost reduction activities on the next slide. To strengthen our competitiveness and support our financial targets, we are continuing our global structural cost reduction initiatives. As a part of this effort, we have decided to gradually discontinue our manufacturing operations in Turkey, which today produce steel wheels, airbags and seatbelts. Production will be transferred to our existing facilities across EMEA area, allowing us to optimize our manufacturing footprint while maintaining our ability to serve customers efficiently. This decision is expected to affect approximately 2,200 employees. The transition will take place over the coming years with a complete closure anticipated during the first half of 2028.

From a financial perspective, we expect total restructuring charges of approximately USD 142 million, of which USD 90 million was recognized in the second quarter of 2026. Cash out is expected to be approximately USD 129 million with a limited impact on our 2026 cash flow. Importantly, this initiative is expected to generate annual pretax savings of approximately USD 40 million. We benefits beginning to materialize in 2027 and reaching the full run rate in 2028. Overall, this action is an important step in improving our cost competitiveness and is supporting us in achieving our financial targets.

Looking now on the next slide. Second quarter sales increased by approximately 3% year-over-year, driven by outperformance relative to light vehicle production, along with favorable currency effects, partly offset by lower tariff-related compensations. The adjusted operating income for Q2 increased by 7% to USD 270 million. The adjusted operating margin was 9.6%, [ 30 ] basis points higher. Operating cash flow was a strong USD 434 million, an increase of USD 157 million.

Looking on to the next slide. We continue to deliver broad-based improvements. Our positive direct labor productivity trend continues. This is supported by the implementation of our strategic initiatives, including automation and digitalization. Gross profit increased by USD 8 million, while the gross margin decreased by 30 basis points, mainly due to the reversion of a supplier settlement. The decline in gross margin from 18.5% to 18.2%, driven by a supplier compensation reversion and asset impairments related to the Turkey restructuring, which combined reduces gross margin by almost 80 basis points. RD&E net increased year-over-year, primarily on negative currency translation effects, higher personnel costs and lower engineering income due to timing of specific customer development projects. SG&A decreased by USD 7 million, mainly due to reverse estimate of credit loss reserves, partly offset by negative FX translation effects. In relation to sales, SG&A improved by 40 basis points to 4.9%.

Looking now on the market development in the second quarter on the next slide. According to S&P Global's July data, global light vehicle production declined by 0.3% in the second quarter, approximately basis points better than expected in April, stronger-than-expected performance in North and South America Europe, India and South Korea helped offset softer production levels in China. The global regional LVP mix was approximately 60 basis points unfavorable in the quarter, primarily driven by stronger slightly reduction in lower content markets relative to other markets. During the quarter, volatility improved year-over-year, but declined slightly sequentially, driven by weaker development in China. We will talk about the market development more in detail later in the presentation.

Looking now on our sales growth in more detail on the next slide. Our consolidated quarterly net sales exceeded USD 2.8 billion for the second time in our history. This was approximately USD 90 million higher than in the prior year, primarily driven by positive currency translation effects of USD 62 million. This benefit was partly offset by approximately USD 5 million of lower tariff-related compensations, mainly due to an IEEPA-related refund of $9.6 million during the quarter. Excluding currencies, our organic sales grew USD 27 million or by 1%, including negative tariff cost compensation.

Based on the latest light vehicle production data from S&P Global, we outperformed the market by over 1 percentage points globally. Our outperformance was significant in Asia. In Asia, excluding China, we outperformed the market by 6 percentage points, driven by continued strong sales growth in India, where we outperformed by around 20 percentage points. Japan and South Korea also contributed to the outlook. In China, we delivered outperformance of more than 7 percentage points, supported by strong sales growth with Chinese OEMs with production grew over 40 percentage points faster than light vehicle production. As a result, the Chinese OEMs accounted for 55% of our sales in China in the quarter compared to 40% last year. The negative performance in the Americas can partly be attributed to lower tariff compensation following the IEEPA refund as well as an unfavorable mix driven by strong light vehicle production growth in lower content South American market. Globally, Chery, Suzuki, Nio, were the largest drivers of sales growth during the quarter. Despite the light vehicle production decline in China, China accounted for 19% of sales. Asia, excluding China, also accounted for 19%. Americas was 32% and EMEA was 30%.

Looking now on the next slide. The second quarter of 2026 saw a high number of new launches, primarily in China with both Chinese and other wells. These new China launches reflect strong momentum for Autoliv Middle East and on market. Higher CPV is driven by front center banks on many of these new [indiscernible]. In terms of Autoliv's sales potential, the Nio ES9 is the most significant in the quarter. For rest of 2026, we expect a high number of new product launches, mainly driven by Chinese OEMs, offsetting fewer launches in Americas and Europe.

Let's continue with the next slide. I will now hand over to Monika.

Thank you, Mikael. I will talk about the financials more in details on the next slide. So turning to the next slide. This slide highlights our key figures for the second quarter of 2026 compared to the same quarter of 2025. Our net sales were $2.8 billion, representing a 3% increase. Gross profit increased by $8 million and gross margin decreased by 30 basis points. The drivers behind the gross profit improvement were mainly positive FX effects and lower cost for materials. This was partly offset by $13 million in costs for our supplier compensation reversal and $9 million in asset impairments related to the restructuring facility. The adjusted operating income increased from $251 million to $270 million and the adjusted operating margin increased from 9.3% to 9.6%. The reported operating income of $192 million or $78 million lower than the adjusted operating income, mainly due to higher capacity alignment activities. The adjusted earnings per share diluted increased by $0.23 to $2.43. The main drivers were $0.18 from higher operating income, $0.10 from lower number of outstanding shares during partly offset by $0.07 from higher factors. Our adjusted return on capital employed and adjusted return on equity were solid 25% and 28%, respectively. We repurchased shares of $200 million and paid a dividend of $0.87 per share.

Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In the second quarter of 2026, our adjusted operating income increased by $80 million. Operations contributed $61 million, primarily driven by higher organic sales and cost reductions supported by better all of stability. This was partly offset by $15 million in cost for our supplier compensation reversal, excluding $6 million of FX translation effect and the supplier compensation reversal, RD&E net and SG&A increased by $6 million, partly driven by $5 million lower RD&E reimbursement.

During the quarter, we recovered approximately 83% of our U.S. tariffs, excluding IEEPA-related recovery bringing our year-to-date recovery rate to 78%. The combination of unrecovered tariff and the dilutive effects of the recovered portion was around 20 basis points negative. However, compared to last year, it was a positive impact of around 15 basis points as the negative effect of last year was around 35 basis points.

Looking now at cash flow on the next slide. Operating cash flow for the second quarter was $434 million, an increase of $157 million. This change was primarily driven by a positive working capital impact of $240 million. The working capital contribution reflects a normalization following the first quarter increase, which was largely driven by the high sales level in March 2026 and several adverse onetime impacts. The improvement was primarily attributable to changes in accounts payable of $120 million, net receivables of $35 million and accrued severance and restructuring costs of $48 million. Free operating cash flow improved by $177 million to $340 million. Year-to-date operating cash flow increased by $4 million to $359 million, and free operating cash flow improved by $31 million to $178 million compared to the prior year. Capital expenditures net for the quarter decreased by $19 million. Capital expenditures net in relation to sales was 3.4% versus 4.2% year-on-year. The lower level of capital expenditures net is mainly related to lower footprint optimization and less capacity expansion. The cash conversion for the last 12 months was 119% and exceeding our target of at least 80%.

Now looking on our debt leverage on the next slide. Autoliv's balance leverage strategy reflects our prudent financial management, enabling resilience, innovation and sustain stakeholder value over time. Our leverage ratio improved from 1.3 to 1.2x during the quarter despite shareholder returns totaling $264 million. Our net debt decreased by around $75 million in the quarter, while the 12-month trailing adjusted EBITDA increased by $33 million.

On to the next slide. I will now hand it back to Mikael.

Thank you, Monika. I will talk about the outlook for 2026, more in detail on the next few slides. Turning to the next slide. Overall, S&P Global expects global light vehicle production to decline by 2.3% in 2026, representing an almost 2 percentage point downward revision from its general forecast. The downgrade is primarily driven by lower production expectations in China and Middle East, while many other markets continue to demonstrate notable demand resilience.

In Europe, light vehicle production is expected to decline by nearly 1% [ affecting ] on growing affordability challenges and increasing competition from Chinese imports. North America, S&P Global has survived outlook afford and now expects production to decline by only 1% in 2026. The market continues to display resilience despite uncertainty related to the conflict in the Middle East and the higher fuel prices. S&P Global has lowered its outlook for China light vehicle production by 4 percentage points since January and now expect a 5% decline in 2026. The weaker outlook reflects a challenging demand environment, driven by reduced government incentives, ongoing macroeconomic headwinds and increasingly cautious consumer sentiment despite continued strength in the vehicle export.

S&P Global and revised light vehicle production outlook upward for both Japan and South Korea and now expect production to decline by only 1% and 2%, respectively. The improved outlook reflects strengthening exports to the U.S. and Europe, supported by robust demand for fuel-efficient hybrid electric vehicles. India's light vehicle production is expected to increase by 9%, driven by a reduction in purchase taxes on new vehicles, which benefit smaller and lower-priced models. However, escalating political tension in the Persian Gulf continue to increase risks across the automotive value chain with potential implications for energy prices, consumer sentiment, supply chain stability raw material availability and overall industry volumes.

Now looking at the second half year development on the next slide. As we look ahead to the second half of the year, we remain focused on managing a dynamic external environment. We are closely monitoring the potential impact of geopolitical developments in and around Persian Gulf, which could affect supply chains, raw material costs and overall, vehicle demand. Our 2026 guidance currently assumes a gross raw material headwind of approximately USD 110 million. And we continue to evaluate multiple scenarios as the situation evolves. Despite these challenges, we expect margin expansion to be supported by FX, engineering income and customer actualizations.

For the third quarter, we expect the adjusted operating margin to be similar to the first half year level. Importantly, customer compensation engineering income, other litigation initiatives are expected to be weighted towards the fourth quarter, resulting in a significant step-up in profitability in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the earnings structure in 2026 is expected to be similar to that of 2023 and 2024, reflecting both the timing of anticipated compensations and a cyclical seasonal ramp-up in profitability and operating leverage.

Now looking on the updated full year guidance on the next slide. This slide shows our full year guidance, which excludes effects from capacity alignment and antitrust-related market. It is based on no material changes to tariffs or trade restrictions that are in effect as of July 9, as well as no significant changes in the macroeconomic environment or changes in customer fall of volatility or significant supply chain disruptions. We expect to outperform light vehicle production by around 2.5 percentage points as our organic sales is expected to be flat, while global light vehicle production is expected to decline by 2.5%. The net currency translation effects on sales is expected to be around 2.5% positive. The guidance for adjusted operating margin is around 10.5% to 11%.

Operating cash flow is expected to be around USD 1.2 billion. And we expect CapEx to be below 5% of sales. Our positive cash flow strong balance sheet supports our continued commitment to a high level of shareholder returns. We expect a tax rate around 30%.

Looking on to the next slide. This concludes our from an comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions from analysts and investors. I now hand it back to our operator, Sandra.

[Operator Instructions] We will now take the first question from the line of Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

Great. If I look at your comments about the cadence of margins, I think you had previously said it would be more linear. Now it sounds -- I think the math is something like you need a 15% margin in Q4 to kind of get to the midpoint of your full year guidance. What changed and how maybe we should think about raw material costs? I think year-to-date, you had $26 million. Is that a similar number in Q3? And is all of that recovered in Q4? And is that why we have the -- is that a big driver of the Q4 spike is the recovery of that raw material in Q4?

Thank you. Good question there. I mean, as you said, I mean, when we started this year, our expectation was that we should see more of a, let's say, normal traditional sequence of how the quarter played out in the year. And now we're talking about the more back-end loaded. And the reason and why it's more back-end loaded is because we see the inflationary pressure here in the value chain as a result of the Persian Gulf. So I think what has changed is really the upward pressure on the cost side. And for us, as you know, we don't buy raw materials directly. So it's to our supply chain, and we have time line there, but we also have, say, diluting effect of the high profit as well. But we need to get through and then enter into the negotiations with our customers here on price adjustments. So the way of working is very similar to what we saw, if you got during the inflationary year standpoint '23, '24 as we [indiscernible] the year. So that is really the change compared to when we talked about before. .

And let me just say then also that, I mean, I feel very comfortable in how this tractor look like? Because I mean, first of all, we have highlighted before. Secondly, we are very focused around the different activities to secured the outcome here, meaning that it's a combination, of course, of our internal work here to drive efficiency and cost improvement in general and here we also, as we stated in the report, we have a good momentum in what we do there, and that's why we feel comfortable here to retain and maintain the full year guidance. And then in combination then with price discussions very happy the time [indiscernible] and also here, I would say we have well-established routes also to manage that. So yes, I mean, we have here activities here to do and have confidence in our ability to work on that.

And we should expect almost 100% of the raw materials recovered? Just to clarify. Or is there still some exposure not for the year because of the timing?

No. I mean it's a combination of, let's call it, self-help, meaning that we need, of course, to do our bit here with making sure that we don't let through everything in -- from our suppliers. So we're working with our suppliers to make sure that we are as efficient as possible in this environment there. And then we have also cost-out activities internally in the company and then the third leg is then the price adjustments with our customers here. So as you know, the price negotiations with the customers is also very detailed. It's not a general percentage adjustment. It is really down to the component level here to see how the different components have been impacted by customers. So hence the lead time also. But there are several levers to work with how to offset the invention.

Got it. And just last question. You lowered production from 1 to down 2.5. What is the offset? Is that better growth over market? And where are you seeing that sort of better-than-expected growth that's offsetting the production weakness? Is that maybe a geographic mix helper?

No, I think, I mean, what we see here is, of course, is that we have a positive mix with how the market is developing. And we also have good growth with our Chinese customers here in India sort of contributing here. So I think we are in the right places here to capture the growth that actually [indiscernible].

We will now take the next question from the line of Emmanuel Rosner from Wolfe Research.

Great. One follow-up on the cadence, please. Are you expecting -- just to be clear, are you expecting most of the mitigating impact from the recoveries and from your own self-help to happen in the fourth quarter? I'm just trying to understand the delta between what you're seeing for Q3 margins and then what maybe consensus expectations were, that's probably like $35 million delta? Like just curious if -- are these unmitigated headwinds in Q3 and then you get it all back in Q4?

No. I mean the majorities in Q4, I think that's how you should read it. I mean, of course, we are managing a part of it in the third quarter. But as a natural progression also if you look at the engineering income, it's mainly in the fourth quarter rather than in the third quarter. So I think that's financially. So it's really engineering income. It is also the higher customer compensation that we talk about here for the inflation. And I think also if you look at the sales provision, it's also for the remainder of the year also geared towards the fourth quarter. So net debt that's really the reason for that.

Understood. And then can you give us a little bit more color around the IEEPA refund dynamics? I wasn't able to follow exactly to what extent it helped your EBIT in the quarter and what you expect on a full year basis?

So right now in the quarter, we got back around $12 million from the government, which we largely passed on to our customers around $9 million. So we retain a positive impact of $3 million in the net results. And as mentioned previously, we -- our aim is to recover the tariff or the net impact of the tariff year-to-date to a lot extent on year to go and to reach a similar recovery rates that we had in the prior year, which was around 5%.

We will now take the next question from the line of Tom Narayan from RBC. .

I have a follow-up to Colin's question on the growth over market. I remember at the Investor Day in Sweden, we heard a story about how we're going to see good growth over market coming from a leasing content per vehicle, especially from emerging markets. You got calling for 2.5% growth over market this year. I know there are some offsets, right, notably, Americas in this past quarter was down 5%. So I just wanted to understand that a little bit more. I know in the report, there was a call out of South America, which had, I guess, lower content per vehicle and then on replacement vehicles. But does this mean that the growth in South America were happening in vehicles with no safety content? I just want to understand why it would be down I know that's versus a very strong market level in South America, but if you have any safety content, I would think it would be up. So I just want to understand that better. And then I have a follow-up.

Yes. I mean let me start. Because I mean, when we talk about the growth in the Capital Markets Day, you mentioned here, I mean, was really 3 significant buckets we talked about. One was LVP, 1% to 2%. It was then the content that's 1% to 2%. So I mean if you had a flat LVP, you had a content growth there of 1% to 2% on top of that. And what we're talking about now here is really that we see a market that is down with 2.5%, the LVP portion of it. And then, of course, we have a mix effect here connected to the content very much. And what we talk about here is when South America is growing and U.S., if we stay in America, so to speak, and then simplify a little bit which is a high content, it's flat or even will be down. Of course, you have -- even if you have growth in South America content, it's not enough to offset what's going down in the high content markets. .

So there, of course, you'll get a negative mix effect on the content side. So long story short, we definitely see that the content growth is there. And we see also how both, let's call it, the low content markets are growing in the content as well as the high content over time here. And when we talk about India specifically, it's very much so that is a content-driven growth that we see. I mean in the last 2 years, the content have grown sequentially with 20% 2 years in a row. So a strong growth there. So what we try to [indiscernible] capital market definitely still not here. But of course you have a mix effect here that is not moving in the full potential here.

Okay. Understood. And then my follow-up, I guess, what was, I guess, the rationale to move production from Turkey to EMEA? Was it cost saves coming from a plant maybe that wasn't as automated? Was it labor? I guess what was driving that decision?

No. I think, I mean, we constantly review our global footprint. And here, we're talking about EMEA, where we have over the last couple of years, taken significant steps to consolidate our activities and optimize them as we move forward. And that's something we have done and we continue to do going forward also to make the work we have the most competitive setup. And we saw here now that with the opportunity to continue to consolidate capacity into other sites in Europe. We have a strong business gains to do so, and you have seen the numbers and how the numbers here. And that was tough decision to take and painful for our quality in Turkey that have done a great job over the years. But we need, of course, to make sure that we maintain our competitiveness. So we are moving some to our Tunisian operations that is -- has been growing plant over the last couple of years here. And we're also moving into other sites of Europe and Romania, for example. So it's to continue to sharpen our position.

We will now take the next question from the line of Winnie Dong from Deutsche Bank.

I just wanted to follow up on your production assumption for the full year a little bit more. So now you're assuming 2.5% decline previously, you were at 1%. I think lately, it has actually improved all a little bit. So I just wanted to understand if there is a mixed situation that's going on? And if you can help us triangulate what you're seeing and if you're just truing up to what the market it's trending towards.

Yes. Yes. Thank you for your question. I think I mean SMB now is at minus 2.3%. We are at 2.5%. I would say that about the same level, it's marginal difference here. And I mean, the big move, you could say here is that we have seen more weakening deeper weakening in China than expected here. To some extent, also the Middle East, but Middle East is still a very small part of the total picture. So I think it was less than 2% when you talk about Middle East, Africa here. So I mean it's really about the weakening in China, domestic sales there and the domestic operations. So that is the change that we talked about.

Okay. Okay. Got you. That's helpful. And you do have very good momentum happening in China. And I know it's kind of difficult to delineate the strength between domestic, which is seeing a lot of weakness right now, but export is actually very, very strong. But is there like a general framework on how we can think about how much the exports is actually contributing to your outgrowth in China?

I think it's -- I mean it's not really -- I mean, for us, we -- it's all domestic, you could say, that we are delivering in there because we don't have separate value chains or separate setups, if it's an export vehicle or it's a domestic. So we don't really see that split from our perspective. So for us, it's all domestic sales to domestic plants. But I mean you're absolutely correct here that the production level is holding up better than what the sales -- domestic sales to the end consumer would indicate. So -- so our operation is definitely supported by the exports here. And yes, I think we will see going forward here. But when we talk about the adjustments we just mentioned to the minus [ 2.5% ]. It's the net effect of that, of course.

We will now take the next question from the line of Hampus Engellau from Handelsbanken.

One question for me. It's relegating to the Turkey production closure. But also going back to your capacity line and programs in Europe, for exactly updated, but that initially was about 8,000 people, and this is additional 2,200. I'm just trying to understand where are now in terms of headcount and how you see demand trending? Is this a part of the automization program that you have been running since 2019? Or is it also that you said that you need less capacity or have had more -- too much capacity. Interesting to hear your thoughts on these different parameters.

Thank you, Hampus. As I alluded to before, I mean, is a constant review of how to optimize your production facilities. And when -- it's not like we had overcapacity in Turkey, but we had an overcapacity in the whole system here where we saw opportunities to consolidate even further. And I mean, you're correct in the way to say that the optimization definitely contributes to our opportunity to put more into the existing plants or somewhere else. And when you drive the optimization. You can also create the flexibility we have talked about before, and we can also see that with an efficient automized and flexible setup the less square meter to produce the same amount. So -- so when you harvest that or to speak, you'll come to these kind of decisions every now and then where you're actually looking at the complete site by the consolidating it in. So it's a way of harvesting the continuous improvement or also the step changes that we've seen as a result of new technology.

We will now take the next question from the line of Itay Michaeli from TD Cowen.

Just 2 follow-ups for me. Just for patent the margin guidance, just given the updated cadence for the year, is there any bias at this point or the lower half or upper half of your full year margin range?

No. As you see here, we haven't expressed upper or lower end or any more precision than -- and what we have here, which is within range of around 10.5% to 11%. And I think if you ask me, which I think you do where we are not more here. It is really that we see with everything going on here that there is difficult to be more size than what we are with the intron here. And I think the interval here reflects the volatility in the markets, so to say, and uncertainty when it comes to the market in home and also the inflation pressure here, if it's -- it is this a long-term or if it's more of a short term thing? So what we see right now, this is the best judgment we can do now that we should be within that range.

That's helpful. And as a quick follow-up, can you maybe comment on order intake trends in the quarter if you've seen any improvement there? And maybe how just like order in the last couple of years, just maybe impacts we should think about your growth over market in Americas and Europe, say, over the 12 to 24 months?

Yes. I mean we don't disclose any details around the current order intake more than I can say that I feel comfortable that we have activities in that area that support depending on our market area, which is around [ 45% ] as we have before. As always, you start out the year where you have a lot of indications that will be at a certain level. And then as the year plays out, some things are being pushed out to the next year, meaning that the OEMs decides to delay the decisions and so on. And in this circumstances that we have right now with a lot of questions around the sentiment in the market, the driveline issues and so on that we saw taking place maybe 1 year, 1.5 years ago and some reshuffling in the model programs of space. I would say to some extent that is partly still going on, but it is a reasonable activity every year when it comes to tenders that are out there. And so all in all, I think we are in good shape here to defend our market share. And I would say also activity level wise, it's a decent year from OEM perspective in terms of activities.

We will now take the next question from the line of Agnieszka Vilela from Nordea.

I have 2 questions. starting with your growth of the Chinese OEMs. I mean, you have been very successful by increasing our sales towards them and you anal a new cooperation with XPENG and Great Wall. Overall, do you expect that the growing China mix in your sales will have neutral positive or negative impact on your group content per vehicle on your profitability?

As you know, the profitability part, I can't go into the details here. And as we normally say, it's more platform program by a platform program than anything else. But in terms of our growth opportunities here, I don't know to see business is very important and great opportunity to secure our future growth here. As you've seen here, I mean, we have grown from 22% of our China sales in '22 to 65% China sales now in Q2. At the same time, as the China OEMs have taken their share of the light vehicle production from roughly 43% in '22 to 72% now in the second quarter of this year. So the combination here of us increasing with them as well as say increasing their share of in contributes very positively, of course, to the growth, but also to securing our decision in China here as the market leader and also with the opportunities that may be in the future here also when the Chinese OEM is also moving out their footprint to support a more locally integrated in the different periods. .

But right now, you could say it's mainly an export-driven activity, which also supports us, of course, here in this. And in the quarter year out of the fastest-growing customers or Chinese OEMs. So it's very helpful, absolutely and important. And I think also back to the agreements you referred to, it's, of course, also very interesting opportunities for us also when it comes to driving innovation here because many of these customers are very innovative in terms of the expectations on the future interiors and, I would say, more advanced products to solve more challenging decisions, et cetera. So very interesting from an innovation point of view as well.

Perfect. And the second question, coming back to growth. Looking at your performance in H1, you outperformed the market by 2 percentage points. But just looking at what you guide for the full year, it looks like the outperformance can accelerate to 3 percentage points. Can you just give us any kind of really and drivers behind this acceleration in our performance and growth?

Yes. I think FX is important it as well. And I think we have also talked here about before slightly positive effect coming from the mix here because before we talked about more of a flat neutral region mix for '26. And now we're looking at let's say, 40 basis points contribution coming from that as well. And then, of course, also you have some compensation activities here with our customers contributing a as well.

We will now take our final question from the line of Dan Levy from Barclays.

Wanted to go back to the question or the point of recovery payments. Can you maybe just put this in context of how the recovery payments that you're getting or the plan to get on raw materials, how that's at all related to the other rubber payments you'd have on other inflationary measures, whether it's you are linked. And with automakers, you took a very good track record in the past of getting recoveries, but with automator, especially in North America, tighter on pricing, is that at all playing any role in the type of conversations you have in the magnitude of recoveries?

Yes. I wouldn't say that there is any difference in the dialogue today compared to what in '25, '24, '23 here, it's never easy, and it has ever been. But once again, I think here, when it comes to the different buckets you're referring to here, I mean tariffs is pasta forward, I would say, because that's something you have to pay when you cross the border, and it's very easily quite to the value flows you have towards the customer now [ 232 ]. I mean because we are mainly talking about the tariffs between Mexico and the U.S. here. With the [ 232 ], it will be almost optimized to no large extent when that is full impact. .

Engineering income is also something we're talking about here the part for the second half. That's also something that is a part of ordinary course of business as we have been for years, so nothing very far. And when it comes to deflation compensation here, we see that the combination here of course, that we need to do our part here together with our suppliers and our internal efficiency and then come to customers. So it's a mix of the 3 here. And once again, it's a very detailed in down to the component well and also here, we are and so back and establish routines there. So I would almost call it business as usual, but -- but maybe let's describe a little bit too simple. But we have a good way to deal with that part as well, and we are progressing as we speak here. And no change either improved or deteriorated in terms of our ability to do it.

And as a follow-up, I wanted to ask about the strategic cooperation framework you signed with Great Wall and XPENG. Could you just help us understand if you're aiming to set up additional agreements with other automakers? And to what extent does this position you well as you start to look at potential sourcing opportunities for these automakers in Europe? Does that position you to the front as they start to give out awards?

No. Of course, it's something that we constantly work with together with our customers, and we have had this type of agreements in the past also with others, which we also have, I think, communicated not that long ago. So they are important, I would say, are connected very much also to, first of all, the innovation opportunities here because it really means that we get very close to our customers here by working well in advance with new joint challenges here. So as I said before here, this different seeking positions that is not traditional, but may come when you see autonomous vehicle increase eventually over time. But already today, comfort is a key factor for many OEMs, meaning that you should be able to sit more relaxed, lean back more than what the current setups allow you to do. So we call it the zero gravity seat, I think we have spoken about that also in a few times. It's an opportunity there. But further out you go, you could say with the ambitions that some of the OEMs have here in terms of creating new interesting vehicles here, you have to have more challenging solutions at the end of the day, which drives also content, I would say. And it puts us up to be in the forefront on developing this new type of technologies that is needed in the future. So very, very interesting and great opportunity to support our customers in a good way.

All the time we have for questions today. I would now like to turn the conference back to Mikael Bratt for closing remarks.

Thank you Sandra. Let's look on the next slide here. Before we conclude today's call, I would like to highlight our new innovation center in Volgora, Sweden, which was inaugurated in June and represents an important investment in our future growth and technology. By bringing research, testing, prototyping and pilot production together in one location, the center will help accelerate innovation and shorten development cycles. The center also expands collaboration with industry, academia and society, creating a strong platform for future innovation. We believe these investments will support long-term growth, enhance our competitive position and help us save even more lives in the years ahead. Finally, the third quarter call is scheduled for Friday, October 23, 2026. Thank you for your attention, and until next time, stay safe.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Welcome to the Autoliv, Inc. First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to first speaker Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Razia. Welcome, everyone, to our first Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. On this call, we have our President and Chief Executive Officer, Mikael Bratt; our Chief Financial Officer, Monika Grama; and I am Anders Trapp VP, Investor Relations.

During today's earnings call, we will highlight several key areas. Our strong performance in a challenging market environment, our full year guidance and the potential impact of ongoing and new geopolitical challenges, an update on the latest market development, and finally, an overview of our continued strong shareholder returns. Following the presentation, we will be available to answer your questions. As usual, the slides are available on autoliv.com. Turning to the next slide.

We have the safe harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows. During the presentation, we will reference non-U.S. GAAP measures. The reconciliations of historical U.S. GAAP to non-use GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly earnings release available on autoliv.com and in the 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC and at the end of this presentation.

Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3:00 p.m. Central European Time. So please follow a limit of two questions per person. I now hand over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide. The first quarter exceeded our expectations, driven by strong sales in March Operational performance was also ahead of plan, supported by solid productivity improvements, partly reflecting reduced call-off volatility. Our positive trend in Asia continued with strong growth in India, South Korea and China.

In China, we continued to grow faster than light vehicle production especially with the Chinese OEMs, outperforming by more than 40 percentage points. In India, we grew sales by 38% organically reflecting mainly the trend of increased safety content in vehicles in India, but also the continued high level of light vehicle production growth.

Underlying profitability improved with gross profit increasing by 10%, although adjusted operating income was slightly lower due to temporary lower RD&E reimbursements and a onetime income in Q1 last year.

In the quarter, we paid a dividend of $0.87 per share, representing a total payout of USD 65 million. Buybacks were paused as the company was in a restricted period following multiple filings and the announcement of a new CFO. Our USD 2.5 billion share repurchase authorization through 2029 remains unchanged. And with the ambition annual share repurchase between USD 300 million and USD 500 million.

Hostilities in the Persian Gulf had a limited impact this quarter and we are continuously monitoring any potential wide-reaching impact on the industry. Based on what we know today, we reiterate our full year 2026 guidance of flat organic sales with continued significant outperformance of light vehicle production in both China and India.

We continue to expect an adjusted operating margin of around 10.5% to 11%. This is based on the assumption that light vehicle production will decline by around 1% and that the gross headwind from raw materials is around USD 90 million. I am also pleased that we introduced our first air bag for motorcycles as well as our first complete wearable airbag solution promoted by motorcycle riders, building on our long-term strategy of growing outside our traditional core business.

Looking now on the next slide. First quarter sales increased by approximately 7% year-over-year, driven by strong outperformance relative to light vehicle production, along with favorable currency effects and tariff-related compensations. The adjusted operating income for Q1 decreased by 4% to USD 245 million compared to a strong first quarter last year. The adjusted operating margin was 8.9%, 1 percentage points lower than in the same quarter last year.

Operating cash flow was a negative USD 76 million, a decrease of USD 153 million compared to last year. The lower cash flow was mainly driven by a temporary negative working capital impact from stronger sales towards the end of the quarter as well as other temporary effects that are expected to reverse later in the year and the normalization of payables from year-end.

Looking now on the next slide. We continue to deliver broad-based improvements with particularly strong progress in direct costs. Our positive direct labor productivity trend continues. This is supported by the implementation of our strategic initiatives, including optimization and digitalization.

Gross profit increased by USD 48 million, and the gross margin improved by almost 60 basis points year-over-year. RD&E net cost rose year-over-year, primarily on negative currency translation effects and lower engineering income due to timing of specific customer development projects. SG&A costs increased by USD 16 million, mainly due to negative currency translation effects, higher costs for personnel and nonrecurring costs of USD 4 million. Looking now on the market development in the first quarter on the next slide.

According to S&P Global data from April, global light vehicle production declined by 3.4% in the first quarter, slightly better than earlier expectations. The modestly stronger-than-expected outcome was mainly supported by Europe in March and rest of Asia. The decline in global light vehicle production was primarily driven by China. India contributed positively to global light vehicle production performance benefiting from substantially lower taxes on new vehicle purchases. As an effect of the declining light vehicle production in China in the quarter, the global regional light vehicle production mix was approximately 1.5 percentage points favorable.

During the quarter, volatility improved despite higher-than-expected call-offs in March. We will talk about the market development more in detail later in the presentation. Looking now on our sales growth in more detail on the next slide.

Our consolidated net sales were almost USD 2.8 billion, the highest for a first quarter yet. This was around USD 175 million higher than last year, mainly driven by USD 154 million positive currency translation effect and USD 14 million from higher tariff-related compensation. Excluding currencies, our organic sales grew USD 21 million or by 80 basis points, including tariff cost compensation.

Based on the latest light vehicle production data from S&P Global, we outperformed the market by over 4 percentage points globally. Our outperformance was significant in China and rest of Asia. In rest of Asia, we outperformed the market by 7 percentage points driven by continued strong sales growth in India, where we outperformed by close to 30 percentage points. South Korea and the Asian subregion also contributed to the outperformance partly offset by Japan. In China, we outperformed overall with 15 percentage points, mainly driven by sales to Chinese OEMs that outperformed light vehicle production with over 40 percentage points.

Despite light vehicle production decline in China, China increased its share of our sales to 18% versus 17% a year ago. Asia, excluding China, accounted for 20%, Americas for 31% and Europe for 30%. On the next slide, we will look more on our growing business in India.

Autoliv is rapidly expanding its business in India, securing its market leadership. India now represents almost 6% of Autoliv's global sales. which is almost triple what it was just 3 years ago, fueled by a regulatory focus and rising consumer demand for safety content in vehicles has increased by around 20% annually for the past 2 years.

In India, Autoliv operates five manufacturing plants, a technical center and a global support engineering center with more than 6,000 associates in total. To further strengthen our footprint, Autoliv recently opened a new inflator plant to meet growing demand for airbags from both India and other Asian markets. Autoliv's largest customer in India, including [ Maruti ] Suzuki, Hyundai, [ Mahindra ] and [ Ander ], reflecting the company's strong position among leading vehicle manufacturers in the country. Looking now on the next slide.

The first quarter of 2026 saw a relatively high number of new launches, primarily in China with both Chinese and other OEMs. These new China launches reflect strong momentum for Autoliv in this important market. Higher content per vehicle is driven by front center airbags on many of these new vehicles. In terms of Autoliv's sales potential, the Nissan [ Versa ] is the most significant in the quarter. Here, you also see the Yamaha Tricity 300 commuter scooter.

For rest of 2026, we expect a high number of new product launches, mainly driven by Chinese OEMs, offsetting fewer launches in America and Europe. Let's continue with the next slide.

Before I'm moving on, I'd like to introduce our new CFO, Monika Grama. Monika joined Autoliv in 2009 and has been instrumental in strengthening the EMEA division, during a particularly challenging period for the automotive industry. I am very pleased to welcome her to the executive management team and looking forward to our continued contributions in her new role. I will now hand it over to Monika.

Thank you, Michael. I will talk about the financials more in detail on the next slide. Turning to the next slide. This slide highlights our key figures for the first quarter of 2026 compared to the first quarter of 2025. Our net sales were almost $ 2.8 billion, representing a 7% increase. Gross profit increased by USD 40 million, USD 48 million and gross margin increased by almost 60 basis points compared to the prior year. The drivers behind the gross profit improvement were mainly positive FX translation effects, improved operational efficiency with lower cost for labor as well as positive effects from higher sales. This was partly offset by increased tariff costs. The adjusted operating income decreased from USD 255 million to EUR 245 million, and the adjusted operating margin decreased from 9.9% to 8.9%. The reported operating income of USD 237 million was $8 million lower mainly due to capacity alignment activities. The adjusted earnings per share diluted decreased by $0.10.

The main drivers were $0.09 from lower operating income, $0.04 from financial and nonoperating items. $0.04 from taxes, partly offset by $0.07 from lower number of outstanding shares diluted. Our adjusted return on capital employed was a solid 23% and our adjusted return on equity was 24%. We paid a dividend of $0.87 per share in the quarter. Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide.

In the first quarter of 2026, our adjusted operating income decreased by USD 10 million. Operations contributed $28 million positively, primarily driven by higher organic sales and the successful execution of operational improvement initiatives supported by better call of stability. Excluding the $13 million from FX translation effects, cost for RD&E net and SG&A increased by $ 28 million driven by lower RD&E reimbursement of $9 million due to timing and the nonrecurring cost of $ 4 million.

During the quarter, we recovered approximately 70% of our U.S. tariff costs. This recovery rate was lower than last year due to delays from the implementation of the new U.S. administration's import adjustment offset program. We expect, though, most of the outstanding tariffs to be recovered later in the year. The combination of unrecovered tariffs and the dilutive effect of the recovered portion resulted in a negative impact of around 40 basis points on our operating margin in the quarter. Looking now at cash flow on the next slide.

Operating cash flow for the first quarter was negative $76 million, a decrease of USD 153 million year-over-year. This change was primarily due to a negative working effect of USD 349 million compared with a negative impact of $179 million in the prior year. The working capital effect was largely driven by higher end-of-quarter sales, which is the good reason, other temporary effects that are expected to reverse later in the year and the normalization of payables from the year-end 2025.

Capital expenditures net for the quarter decreased by $9 million. Capital expenditures net in relation to sales was 3% and versus 3.6% a year earlier. The lower level of capital expenditure net is mainly related to lower footprint optimization, less capacity expansion and timing effects. The operating cash flow for the quarter was negative $159 million compared to negative $16 million in the same period in the year -- in the prior year due to lower operating cash flow, partly offset by lower CapEx net.

The cash conversion for the last 12 months defined as free operating cash flow in relation to net income was 83%, exceeding our target of at least 80%. Now looking on our cash flow and shareholder returns on the next slide.

Our cash flow generation has proven resilient across economic cycles. As shown on this slide, we have consistently delivered positive operating and free operating cash flow through major disruptions such as the financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and period of structural change. Cash generation has strengthened in recent years, reaching record levels. This resilience reflects disciplined working capital management, a flexible cost base and limited capital intensity of our operations, supporting higher asset return durable long-term growth and shareholder value creation. Over time, we have delivered strong shareholder returns.

What is not reflected in the graph is the spin-off of [ Vianeer ] in 2018 to shareholders which valued [ Vianeer ] at approximately $3 billion at the time. Our capital allocation strategy aimed at annual share repurchase of $300 million to $500 million through 2029 and supported by an attractive and growing quarterly dividend.

Since initiating the previous stock repurchase program in 2022, we have reduced the number of outstanding shares by almost 15%. And when executing the program, we consider several factors, including our balance sheet, cash flow outlook, credit rating and general business conditions as well as the debt leverage ratio. We always try to balance what is best for our shareholders in both the short and the long term. Now looking at the results of our efficient capital utilization on the next slide.

Over the years, Autoliv has demonstrated its ability to consistently deliver strong return on capital employed, also in periods of challenging market environment, reflecting a disciplined capital management. The high and stable return on capital employed is further supported by scale advantages and the limited exposure to capital-intensive investments such as powertrain. Returns have improved since the COVID period driven by margin expansion and tight control of working capital and CapEx. Now looking on our debt leverage ratio development on the next slide.

Autoliv's balance leverage strategy reflects our prudent financial management, enabling resilience, innovation and sustained stakeholder value over time. Our leverage ratio increased from 1.1% to 1.3% during the quarter. Our net debt increased by around $200 million in the quarter, while the 12-month trailing adjusted EBITDA was virtually unchanged. On to the next slide. I will now hand it back to Mikael.

Thank you, Monika. I will talk about the outlook for 2026 more in detail on the next few slides. Turning to the next slide.

Overall, S&P Global expects global light vehicle production in 2026 to decline by 2% versus 2025. A 1.5 percentage point downward revision from January. The downgrade is largely attributable to production cuts in the Middle East as well as in other regions impacted by the hostilities. European light vehicle production is expected to decline by almost 2%, driven by affordability challenges and rising imports from China.

In North America, S&P forecasts light vehicle production to decline by 2% in 2026 and despite relatively healthy dealer inventory levels. In China, light vehicle production is expected to decline by 3% due to weaker domestic demand. despite continued export strengths. Japan and South Korea, light vehicle production are expected to decline by 2% and 3%, respectively, reflecting softer domestic demand and a more challenging export environment. India, light vehicle production is expected to increase by 6% and driven by a reduction in purchase taxes on new vehicles, which disproportionately benefits smaller and lower-priced models.

However, heightened geopolitical uncertainty from the hostilities around the Persian Gulf adds risk to energy markets, consumer confidence and overall industry volumes. Now looking on raw materials, development on the next slide.

We are closely monitoring the potential industry-wide impact of geopolitical developments in and around the Persian Gulf on supply chains raw material prices and overall demand for new vehicles. The situation may lead to more challenging raw material environment and we are evaluating multiple scenarios based on our current assessment. We primarily purchase components rather than raw materials which inherently reduces our direct exposure to commodity price volatility.

That said, geopolitical developments in the Persian Gulf can still affect certain input categories most notably textiles and plastics, but also indirectly aluminum, helium and steel. For materials, such as nylon resin and plastics Pricing generally follows oil prices over time. Historically, we see a lag of approximately 3 to 6 months between movements in spot oil prices and the impact on the purchase prices.

For the full year 2026, our [ current ] assessment is for around USD 90 million gross impact from higher raw material pricing compared the previous assessment of around $ 30 million a quarter ago. From a mitigation standpoint, we continue to execute on productivity and cost reduction initiatives to offset these costs. Additionally, customer compensation mechanisms are in place and are expected to offset a meaningful portion of the cost impact, although there is typically a timing delay between cost increases and recovery. Now looking on the updated full year guidance on the next slide.

This slide shows our full year guidance, which excludes effects from capacity alignment and antitrust-related matters. It is based on no material changes to tariffs or trade restrictions that are in effect as of April 10, 2026. As well as no significant changes in the macroeconomic environment or changes in customer call-off volatility or significant supply chain disruption.

We expect to outperform light vehicle production by around 1 percentage points as our organic sales is expected to be flat while global light vehicle production is expected to decline by 1%. The net currency translation effects on sales is expected to be around 3% positive. The guidance for adjusted operating margin is around 10.5% to 11%. Operating cash flow is expected to be around USD 1.2 billion. We expect CapEx to be below 5% of sales. Our positive cash flow and strong balance sheet supports our continued commitment to a high level of shareholder returns, and we expect a tax rate of around 28%. Looking on the next slide.

This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions from analysts and investors. I now hand it back to [ Razia ].

[Operator Instructions] And the questions come from the line of Tom Narayan from RBC.

Tom Narayan in RBC, and welcome Monika. The first question I have is on the China strength. And I know you called out higher penetration of domestic OEMs. I would think you also benefited from the relative outperformance of nondomestic, which I think come at higher margins than domestic for you guys. .

Yes. Just curious if that's true. And then if that -- if your overall China penetration increase year-over-year, boosted your margins and how sustainable that is as the year progresses? And then I have a follow-up.

As you know, we don't disclose a breakdown of our earnings profile for customers or regions or countries or anything like that? And I mean we have a total portfolio of large number of programs, and that's the combined result of that, that we are presenting here. But -- it's not a secret that we have focused on our Chinese OEMs as they are growing in their share of the total market. Our focus here is to have a market share of around 45% of the global light vehicle production, and that's what we are happy to report that we continue to build on that strategy here and it served us well in the quarter here. And of course, we are working hard to improve our earnings profile across the board here in general.

Okay. And for my follow-up, I just -- it sounds like the tariff policy is as of April 10 in your guidance I know April 6, there was the rule change on the metals side. As it relates to that Section 232 rule change, I was just wondering is the current USMCA exemption that you enjoy, is that still the case? And then this only applies, I think, on the metal side where, I guess, the OEMs have that MSRP offset. Is that your understanding that it doesn't meaningfully impact I think in...

In general, when it comes to the tariffs, I think there's a lot of moving pieces there. But I think for us, as automotive here, it's to a large degree unchanged. I mean for us, it's mainly the USMCA structure that is relevant and that we have no changes at this point. So that is what we are looking at, the rule changes that you saw lately here it's a minor part of our total exposure and not meaningful in this context. But of course, we follow that as well here. But for us, it's all about the USMCA, I would say. That's the key thing here. No changes in that.

The questions come from the line of Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

Great. One, just trying to clarify maybe I misunderstood. So S&P is down 2%, but your guide is down 1%. Any -- is based on down production on, is that just a mix issue? Or is that just why not in line with S&P. And then just a lot of people are worried about if you read even the S&P comments, if the straight doesn't open, there's more downside. Can you just remind us on the decrementals of production actually continues to trend downward.

Yes. I think as you saw when we gave our full year guidance in connection with the Q4 earnings release, we had minus 1% and S&P had minus 0.5%. So at that point, we were -- it is more cautious. I think what we have seen now and the change that came yesterday is within the, let's say, the margin of are here in this very, I would say, volatile environment here. And of course, we are fully aware of what's going on in the straight around the Pershing as we mentioned in the presentation here. But at this point, we have no indications, no signals, nothing that indicates something else than what we have in our outlook here. And I think it can definitely also change to the better here. I think there's a lot of different scenarios you can play up here and I think we feel comfortable with our outlook here.

And if it gets worse, what are the decrementals that we should...

Yes, of course, I mean, as I said, we follow this and are ready to take any measurements that is necessary. So I mean, if we will see a dramatic change to this outlook. We are, of course, ready to make necessary adjustments. And I think we have proven that in the past that we have a high degree of flexibility in our system and a strong team to execute on those changes. So I think it's all about staying close to the development, as we always do here.

Okay. And then just a follow-up on -- can you give any color on the drivers of the increase in raw material costs? And also any risk of shortfalls, particularly I heard some concerns around nylon that some of the [ Butedine ] plants are currently on short supply, and that's an input into nylon. Is that -- is there any concern that we actually can't get supply of some of the raw materials like nylon and are there alternatives to swapping if there are shortages?

No, I think -- I mean, to your first question there, what's the main drivers here. It's really the oil price. That is the main driver for us at this point in time as it goes into many different types of products. And that's what we're following. That is what's causing the, I would say, higher estimate that we have here now $90 million instead of the $30 million we had in the beginning of the year. But with that said, we are definitely here focusing on making sure that, that becomes lower than what we have said here to manage the situation here. So we'll see and we have offset activities, which I explained before.

When it comes to the availability, we don't really see at this point any main concerns around that. I think we, of course, have our supply chain team on [ Hayalo ] here and are working actively to secure supply. So I would say, so far, so good. But of course, we realize here that if you will have real shortages of oil, et cetera, here. We have, of course, different activities around that. So I feel that we have that under control.

Just back to your question there on the sensitivity here, if we have a drop in demand outside our own expectations here at this point in time. I just wanted to remind you here about our normal decrementals we normally reference to, which is between 20% and 30% leverage if we have a drop in dramatic drop in sales in going forward. So I just wanted to mention that related to that question.

And the questions come from the line of Mattias Holmberg from DNB Carnegie.

I'm interested in the outperformance, given that you have a 4% here in Q1 and still guide for just 1% for the full year. Am I off by thinking that you are aiming is perhaps not the right word, but you see no outperformance for the balance of the year? Or what are the moving parts? And what would sort of result in this lost momentum? Is it a pull forward from the strength you saw in March that is going to reverse? Or I'm just trying to understand the dynamics here, please?

No, I think, I mean, it's -- of course, when we give the full year guidance here, you take into consideration also the mix development throughout the year. And I mean, some quarters, it's a little bit in your favor and some it's in the reverse. And what we indicated here in the first quarter, we had a positive mix effect of roughly 1.5 percentage point here. And yes, we still believe that with the development for the year here that we have for different regions, just to the best of our knowledge that we should end up where we have indicated here.

And a quick follow-up on the raw materials. With the $90 million gross headwind, is it roughly evenly phased do you think over the next 3 quarters? Or is there any quarter in particular that will be more severely impacted? And also, have you made any assumptions on what the net impact will be after mitigations sort of embedded in your margin guidance?

No, I think it's -- I mean, the net effect is included in our guidance here. So what we're saying here is that the gross exposure we have here should be mitigated either by price increases and internal, let's say, self-help through other activities here, but majority is price increases here. And it fits within the guidance there. And when it comes to the sequential development here, I don't know, Monika, if there is anything you would like to add there. But still, we're not guiding per quarter, as you know.

Maybe then just a clarification. Do you assume full recovery of those 90 gross...

As I said, we will have a majority through the price mechanisms that we have and the rest should be offset by internal activities to a large extent as possible. So once again, the net effect is included in our full year guidance. So I have no more granular numbers to give you around that than that.

The questions come from the line of Hampus Engellau from Handelsbanken.

Two questions from me. First one is on customer call-offs. If I heard you right, you said that customer call-offs were more stable during the quarter. I'm just thinking, is this some one-off here? Or should we expect this trend to continue moving into second quarter? I'll take the question one by one.

Okay. Thank you, Anders. No, I think, I mean, as we said here, the call-off stability was around 95%, which is what it was during last year at the good times. We had some deterioration towards the end of Q4, where we saw some customers pulling the brakes on to reduce inventory at the year-end. And then it normalized again in the beginning of the quarter here. And of course, with the increased sales in March here, that also helps to stabilize the situation when you have a little bit of a, let's say, upward trend there. And we still believe that it should continue to improve under normal circumstances.

I think it all depends now on what happens with the supply chains, if we have a positive scenario, meaning that we come to some kind of resolutions here around the Middle East situation and the value chains are connected to that or not because it's the disturbances in the value chain here that creates a lot of the volatility, I would say, at this point in time. But long term, it's definitely expectations that it should continue to improve. And with the 2 weeks into the first quarter, I would say it's still holds, and we have a stable situation here. And yes, we will, of course, follow it closely. But so far, so good.

Fair enough. And maybe if I'm looking -- when you came out of Q4, one of the main takes was that there were much lower new product model launches on -- especially on the used side, I guess, partly also in Europe. But -- and it seems like China has had more new model launches than you maybe expected. And given the short lead times we have between a new model and launching a new model in China, can you maybe add some flavor on that one? Or are you surprised about that? And we also hear Volkswagen is clearly stepping up on the BEV side, talking about one new model each second week for the remainder of this year, for next year. So if you could maybe share some light on that.

Yes. No, I think -- I mean, I wouldn't say that we have any surprises when it comes to new launches because, I mean, they are something that you need to be, of course, well prepared and tuned and everything else ready for. So I think we have a very good visibility of that in general. Then we know during last year that we had not connected to China, but connected to the global situation here, a lot of reshuffling in terms of launches of new platforms, especially around EVs in the U.S. and Europe here that changed. But that doesn't really impact the short term, I would say, here and not in China. So I think no -- long story short, no real surprises around that.

I was maybe referring to the timing in the launch that maybe it was put earlier. I'm sure you know what you're...

No really. No.

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Emmanuel Rosner from Wolfe Research.

My first question is around the outperformance versus the industry, which was solid in the first quarter. But I wanted to follow up a little bit about what you're assuming for the rest of the year because it would be basically some sort of deceleration versus this Q1 performance. And you flagged the mix was 1.5 point positive in Q1. What are you expecting for mix on the full year over the rest of the year? And what would be the drivers of sort of like limited or minimal growth of the market compared to what we've seen in Q1?

No, as I said before here, I mean, the mix in each quarter has of course a meaningful impact on it. And this first quarter, we had 1.5 percentage points coming from positive mix. When we look at the full year here and basically, we have guided then for a 1% outperformance considering a flat organic and negative 1% light vehicle production. It's based on a neutral mix compared to 2025. So we have no tailwind or headwind coming from mix in that assumption. And that's, of course, the best estimate we have now. Then you don't know the mix for 100% until you have gone through here. But we still believe that, that's the most likely scenario with what we see here in the light vehicle production per regions, et cetera, looking ahead.

Okay. And then with a lot of moving pieces around raw mats and tariffs, et cetera, I was hoping you could just refresh for us the main drivers of margin expansion for this year. So if we're thinking about 2025 as a starting point and then your reiterated margin guidance for 2026, what are some of the big buckets of margin improvement now basically mark-to-market with the similar sort of like limited organic growth?

So I will start with the negative that you could already observe in our messages. We have a negative impact from raw materials and from inflationary impact on SG&A and RD&E. That we more than plan to offset with operations and raw material mitigations. Now we are tapping in again in structural cost savings and our known resilience in challenging times. We are going to tap in as well into customer compensations to partly offset or to meaningfully offset the raw material headwinds that we mentioned. And in addition to that, we benefit of positive FX impact across the board that was already visible to some extent in our Q1 results.

Okay. So -- but you're obviously planning for a decent amount of margin expansion. So you mentioned headwinds that would be largely offset and then a bit of FX. Like what are some of the main positives?

The main positive is really around the structural cost savings. that is coming through. And it is in the operational productivity efforts here where we talk about automization, digitalization, et cetera, to drive efficiency through the value chain. So that -- it continues to be very much the same drivers, you could say, for our margin expansion as we go ahead. And as Monika mentioned here, we have short term here expectations on some headwinds around raw materials, which we are planning to offset also through price compensation and additional cost reductions there and then also some positives on the FX.

And the questions come from the line of José Asumendi from JPMorgan.

A couple of questions, please. Mikael, can you comment on Chinese OEMs, both in China and in Europe and how you're going to be benefiting in the coming quarters from the product launches? And can you help us a bit more on which customers should we be keeping an eye on in terms of the acceleration in China Q2 to Q4 or on a 1-year view? And also when it comes to Europe, can you share a bit more how you can benefit also from the -- what we see, right, Chinese OEMs taking double-digit market share in the European market. How is that also going to benefit the utilization of your plants? Question 2, please, for Monika. If you can comment a bit on working capital and working capital assumptions for the remaining of the year.

Very good. Thank you. Maybe I'll start on the sales side and then Monika takes the working capital there. So as you know, we work broadly with the Chinese OEMs. And I would say we are on all the different platforms, OEMs that you see exporting out of China in different shape and forms. There is 2 exceptions, which have their own captive solution and that's SIC and BYD, but BYD is still very important customer for us, which we are working with. So when you look at the development of Chinese OEMs, I would say we are present in a broad base there. And I think the outperformance numbers in the quarter here speaks for itself, where we had 40 percentage points outperformance with the Chinese OEMs. So I think that's really, really strong and a good number there.

And when we see them coming to Europe, they are normally, I would say, very highly high level of CPV in those vehicles. And yes, it mirrors the position we have in China there, I would say. We have seen not so much local production yet of the Chinese OEMs. But what I can say, and I think we said also in the connection with the Q4 that we won the first tender that was issued in Europe by Chinese OEM. So I would say that we are very happy about that and proud that we were able to meet the OEMs expectations here in Europe. So I think we are in a good position there to utilize our European footprint here as well for our Chinese customers.

If I just move into working capital, just a quick one. The last time you met [ Fabien and Sing ], we discussed the new R&D center in M. Is that R&D center -- are you getting incremental order backlog from that new R&D center? Or is that yet to come in your business?

No, I think it helps us to strengthen our presence in China and our closeness to our customers. I mean, over the years, for a long period, our strategy has been to have RD&E centers near our customers and work closely with them early on in the different projects. And this is a step in order to continue to strengthen our presence in China with our customers here by offering a better footprint for our customers here through a second tech center. So I think it's a part of the overall strategy and focus we have.

And continuing then with the working capital, we mentioned that the cash flow in Q1 was negatively impacted by $349 million increase in operating working capital, mainly due to temporary impact. the increase in the receivables, other one-timers that have as well temporary effects and then the payables that are more normalized compared to the year-end. Our full year cash flow expectations are unchanged with the operating cash flow expected at around $1.2 billion and CapEx below 5%. That implies our expectations that we are normalizing the working capital assumptions, and we are continuing to execute on our working capital improvement program. There are still some actions outstanding that will deliver results through the year.

And the questions come from the line of Jairam Nathan from Daiwa Capital Markets.

So just going back to your long-term revenue CAGR of 4% to 6%, the 1% to 2% that was coming from new markets. I know you talked about it being not in the short term. But with the motorcycle introduction -- product introduction, if you could just talk about what does that do to -- does that change the expectation here?

So just going back to your long-term revenue CAGR of 4% to 6%, the 1% to 2% that was coming from new markets. I know you talked about it being not in the short term. But with the motorcycle introduction -- product introduction, if you could just talk about what does that do to -- does that change the expectation here?

No, it doesn't really change the expectation. I would say this is a part of the expectation, so to speak, that we have stated here that the 4% to 6% and the I'd say, 1 to 2 LVP, 1 to 2 content and the 1 to 2 coming from Mobility Safety Solutions should come through towards the end of this period here, which we mean 2030 before it becomes meaningful. And of course, there is a gradual buildup, and we have also talked about that before that MSS is contributing gradually here, but it's when you get further out there. And this is the first step in the bag on bike product offering and then also the wearables. So this is more, I would say, a data point that what we have talked about to build the last 1% to 2% of the 4% to 6% really is on its way. That's the way you should read it, and it doesn't really change the expectations beyond that.

And my follow-up is for Monika. Just as you kind of take a fresh look at shareholder returns, your initial thoughts on share buyback of $300 million to $500 million given net debt-to-EBITDA target being below the 1.5x.

I think maybe on the buyback, as we stated here, I mean, we are committed to our program. We are also indicating here that it should be between $300 million to $500 million year-by-year. And that's like a guidance. Then, of course, we take into consideration the balance sheet. We take into consideration, okay, are we heading into more positive territory when it comes to overall business cycle or not, et cetera. So I mean, we have plenty of room in our program that was launched last year here. And yes, we are on our way here. So we take all those pieces into consideration. We remain committed.

We are now going to take one last question. And our last questions come from the line of Björn Enarson from Danske Bank.

Try to be quick. But you base your guidance on unchanged regional mix. I guess, it sounds fair. I would most likely have done it myself. But I mean, your regional mix last year, I mean, Q1, Q2, you talked about a significant negative regional mix and in Q3, Q4, I believe it was 100 to 200 basis points negative as well. Is that a fair assumption on the comps kind of that we are talking about when you say that your mix is going to be unchanged for the year?

Yes. Yes. No, I think, I mean, as you rightly said here, I mean, we had some headwind last year. We are not expecting that to be reversed this year here. And of course, it's much connected to overall business sentiment that are around the world here. So we are not considering any changes to that. So that's a right assumption.

And then secondly, on -- I mean, you talked a lot about the guidance and versus S&P [ NVP ]. But most of the revisions were linked to Middle East and connected countries. What is your exposure to that region, I mean, if you compare it to other regions?

would say it's very limited. I mean, first of all, the region altogether is a minor part of the -- if you look at the light vehicle production, obviously. And I would say the indirect also is, let's say, manageable at this point here. So not that big.

So this concludes the question-and-answer session. I will now hand back to Mr. Mikael Bratt for closing remarks.

Thank you, Razia. Before we conclude today's call, I would like to reiterate my confidence in our strong market position and our growth momentum in Asia, particularly in China and India, which position us well for continued success. At the same time, we remain mindful of the heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. Despite these uncertainties, our proven ability to strengthen profitability even in a low growth environment provides a solid foundation for delivering attractive shareholder returns and a clear path towards achieving our 12% adjusted operating margin target. Our second quarter call is scheduled for Friday, July 17, 2026. Thank you for your attention. Until next time, stay safe.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Autoliv Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Anders Trapp, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Sandra. Welcome, everyone, to our Fourth Quarter and Full Year '25 Earnings Call.

On this call, we have our President and Chief Executive Officer, Mikael Bratt; our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin; and me, Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations.

During today's earnings call, we will highlight several key areas, including our record-breaking sales, cash flow and earnings per share. We also provided an update on the latest market development. And finally, we will outline the expected margin improvement in 2026 and how our strong balance sheet and asset returns will support the continued high level of shareholder returns. Following the presentation, we will be able -- available to answer your questions. As usual, the slides are available on autoliv.com.

Turning to the next slide. We have the safe harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation, and it includes the Q&A that follows. During the presentation, we will reference non-U.S. GAAP measures. The reconciliations of historical use GAAP to non-use GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly earnings release available on autoliv.com, and in the 10-K that will be filed with the SEC or at the end of this presentation.

Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3 p.m. Central European Time. So please follow a limit of two questions per person.

I now hand it over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide. I am very pleased to report another great quarter with strong development in sales, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet. These achievements reflect the performance of the whole Autoliv team and the depth of our customer partnerships and our dedication to ongoing structural cost savings.

We achieved record high sales for both the quarter and the full year supported primarily by strong growth in India and with Chinese OEMs. Sales to rapidly expanding Chinese OEMs surged nearly 40% in the quarter, reinforcing our position in the industry's most dynamic markets. India, again, delivered exceptional growth, representing nearly half of our global organic growth. Looking ahead, we expect to continue to significantly outperform light vehicle production in both China and India in 2026.

As we have guided for, adjusted operating income declined slightly in the quarter, mainly due to lower out-of-period compensation and lower customer RD&E reimbursement. We recovered close to 100% of tariff costs in the fourth quarter. We delivered record operating and free operating cash flow for both the quarter and for the full year.

In 2025, we generated $734 million in free operating cash flow, an increase of over $230 million, driven by higher profitability and disciplined capital management. It is also important to note that we delivered record earnings per share for both the quarter and the full year. During the quarter, we returned $216 million to shareholders while reducing our debt leverage ratio to 1.1x, reinforcing my confidence in our ability to continue delivering attractive shareholder returns.

We also announced that Autoliv and Tensor have developed the first foldable steering wheel for the Tensor's Robocar, targeted for volume production in late 2026. This innovation enhances safety and design flexibility for autonomous vehicles and marks an important strategic step in expanding our role in the emerging autonomous vehicle ecosystem.

Looking on the next slide. Fourth quarter sales increased by 8% year-over-year, driven by strong outperformance relative to LVP, along with favorable currency effects and tariff-related compensations. This growth was partly offset by an unfavorable regional and market light vehicle production mix.

The adjusted operating income for Q4 decreased by 4% to $337 million, compared to an exceptionally strong fourth quarter last year. The adjusted operating margin was 12%, 140 basis points lower than in the same quarter last year. Operating cash flow was $544 million, an increase of $124 million or 30% compared to last year.

Looking now on the next slide. We continue to deliver broad-based improvements with particularly strong progress in direct costs. Our positive direct labor productivity trend continues as we reduce our direct production personnel by almost $700 million. This is supported by the implementation of our strategic initiatives, including automation and digitalization. Gross profit increased by $22 million, while gross margin declined by 70 basis points year-over-year, but improved by sequentially by 100 basis points compared with the third quarter.

RD&E net costs rose year-over-year, primarily on lower engineering income due to timing of specific customer development projects. SG&A costs increased by $12 million, mainly due to higher costs for personnel, as well as negative FX translation effect.

Looking now on the market development in the fourth quarter on the next slide. Light vehicle production in the fourth quarter of 2025 reached its highest level for any quarter on record. This reflects strong demand across several major markets. The regional production mix has changed significantly in recent years with a large share now coming from lower content per vehicle markets in Asia.

According to S&P Global data from January, global light vehicle production for the fourth quarter increased 1.3%. And exceeding the expectation from the beginning of the quarter by 4 percentage points. The stronger-than-expected market was primarily driven by China, where light vehicle production came in 8 percentage points above expectations, supported by consumers taking advantage of scrapping and replacement subsidies before their expiration.

India also contributed to better-than-expected light vehicle production growth, supported by significantly reduced taxes on new vehicles. Light Vehicle demand and Light Vehicle demand and production in North America have held up better than expected, leading to a small decline in light vehicle production than anticipated.

As many low content markets grow during the quarter, the global regional light vehicle production mix was approximately 150 basis points unfavorable. This was more than 100 basis points worse than expected at the start of the quarter. During the quarter, we experienced increased volatility driven by inventory adjustments in North America early in the period. In December, we also saw production adjustments in Asia, including China, in response to rising inventory levels. We view this volatility as temporary and expect conditions to improve in 2026. We will talk about the market development more in detail later in the presentation.

Looking now on our sales growth in more detail on the next slide. Our consolidated sales were over $2.8 billion, the highest for any quarter yet. This was around $200 million higher than last year, driven by volume and positive currency translation effects and $27 million from tariff-related compensation. Excluding currencies, our organic sales grew by 4%, including tariff costs compensations. China accounted for 23% of our group sales. Asia, excluding China, accounted for 20%, Americas for 30%, and Europe for more than 27%.

We outlined our organic sales growth compared to LVP on the next slide. Our quarterly sales growth was driven by strong performance across most regions, particularly in the rest of Asia and China. Based on the latest light vehicle production data from S&P Global, we outperformed the market by 3 percentage points globally, despite the unfavorable regional light vehicle production mix. We returned to outperformance in Europe and the Americas. In rest of Asia, we outperformed the market by 11 percentage points, driven by continued strong sales. Growth in India, where we did outperform in more than 30 percentage points. Our sales to Chinese OEMs grew by almost 40%, exceeding the light vehicle production growth by 34 percentage points. Sales to global customers in China were 8 percentage points below the light vehicle production development.

On the next slide, we see some key model launches from the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a relatively high number of new launches, primarily in China with both Chinese and other OEMs. These new China launches reflect strong momentum for Autoliv in this important market. The models displayed here feature Autoliv content per vehicle from $150 to over $400. Higher CPV is driven from -- by front center [ air ] banks on three [ obvious ] vehicles produced in China. In terms of Autoliv's sales potential, the Mercedes GLB and CLA combined are the most significant. The CLA was the highest scoring or by Euro NCAP in 2025. For 2026, we expect a record number of new product launches, driven by Chinese OEMs.

Now looking at the next slide. 2025 was a challenging year for the industry, marked by tariffs, ongoing supply chain disruptions, the slowdown in EV demand, shift in the OEM, landscape and demand pressure due to concerns of vehicle affordability. Despite these headwinds, Autoliv delivered a record year.

On the next slide, where we summarize the year. For the year, we met or exceeded all of our full year guidance metrics, sales, adjusted operating margin and cash flow. Our sales reached a new all-time record. global light vehicle production surpassed 90 million units for the first time since 2018. However, the regional mix has shifted significantly with higher volumes in Asia and lower volumes in high content markets, such as Western Europe and North America. We also reached several other significant milestones Operating income exceeded $1 billion for the first time. Earnings per share rose above $9, and we paid more than $3 per share in dividend. During our Capital Markets Day in June, we reiterated our medium- and long-term financial targets, and we initiated a new USD 2.5 billion share repurchase program. Another highlight of the year was the signing of the strategic agreement with Qatar, and we expand further into advanced automotive safety and electronics.

Now looking at next slide. Industry sourcing of new business remained at the low level during 2025 as OEMs continue to reassess their product plans. Amid high geopolitical and technogical uncertainty, our customers are reassessing both what and where to produce future models. At the same time, they are navigating a more dynamic and competitive industry landscape with many new players. We have also experienced notable market mix effect as a shorter program life cycles and Chinese OEMs reduced their average lifetime sales.

With these OEMs now representing roughly 1/3 of global industry sourcing, the impact of this shift is increasingly pronounced. Despite these headwinds, our intake remained robust, supporting our current market position. Chinese OEMs remained a strong contributor for us, accounting for over 30% of our global order intake. And importantly, we secured our first order with Chinese OEMs for vehicle production in Europe.

Despite this, looking on the order intake in more detail on the next slide. In 2025, about 1/3 of our total ordering became from new automakers, highlighting the growth in importance of new mobility players. We won multiple awards tied to industry trends, such as autonomous driving. This includes solutions that protects occupants in reclining seating position, addressing critical safety risks in next-generation interiors. We strengthened our mobility safety solution business by winning new orders for our advanced pyro-safety switch supporting the growing segment of 1,000 volt electrical vehicles.

Additionally, awards, including an occupant safety system development program from a major premium automation, as well as wins for steering wheel switches with integrated ECUs and rear window inflatable carton airbags. We continued to expand our safety offering in India with advanced systems such as seat cushion airbags and front center airbags. We licensed our human body model solution to our first customer a leading automaker, enabling next level virtual crush testing and demonstrating the strength of our digital safety capabilities.

Let's now look at organic sales growth for the full year 2025. For the full year, we grew in line with global light vehicle production. Outperformance came in lower than anticipated earlier in the year as the regional and market light vehicle production mix developed almost 4 percentage points less favorable than expected. We outperformed in rest of Asia by 6 percentage points. In the Americas by 3 percentage points and in Europe by 2 percentage points.

In China, our sales to Chinese OEMs grew by 23% and they accounted for more than 44% of our China sales, doubled our share from 3 years ago. However, the unfavorable market mix still resulted in a 6 percentage points underperformance in China overall. Our global market position remains strong with clear market leadership across all regions and product categories. In 2025, our global market share was around 44%, almost 5 percentage points higher than in 2018 following the Veoneer spinoff. Supported by new launches, especially with Chinese OEMs and CPV growth, we expect sales to outperform light vehicle production by around 1 percentage points in 2026.

Now looking at the next slide. I will now hand over to Fredrik Westin.

Thank you, Mikael. I will talk about the financials now more in detail on the next few slides. So turning to the next slide. This slide highlights our key figures for the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. The net sales were approximately $2.8 billion, representing an 8% increase. Gross profit increased by $22 million.

The drivers behind the gross profit improvement were mainly improved operational efficiency, with lower cost for logistics and labor, as well as positive effects from higher sales and lower material costs. This was partly offset by lower out-of-period customer compensation, less capitalization to inventories and higher depreciation. The adjusted operating income decreased from $349 million to $337 million, and the adjusted operating margin decreased to 12.0%. The reported operating income of $319 million was $18 million lower, mainly due to costs for recycled accumulated currency translation differences related to the closure of our entities in the Netherlands and Italy.

Despite lower adjusted profit, the adjusted earnings per share diluted increased by $0.14. The main drivers were $0.10 from taxes, $0.11 from lower number of outstanding shares and $0.05 from financial items, partly offset by $0.16 from lower operating income. The adjusted return on capital employed was a solid at 32%, and our adjusted return on equity was 37%. We paid a dividend of $0.87 per share in the quarter and repurchased shares for $150 million and retired 1.3 million shares.

Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In the fourth quarter of 2025, our adjusted operating income decreased by $12 million. Operations contributed $41 million, primarily driven by higher organic sales and the successful execution of operational improvement initiatives despite increased call of volatility. We out-of-period cost compensation was $24 million lower than last year. Costs for RD&E net and SG&A increased by $33 million, mainly due to lower engineering income. The net currency effect was $7 million positive, mainly from translation effects. The combination of unrecovered tariffs and the dilutive effect of the recovery portion resulted in a negative impact of around 15 basis points on our operating margin in the quarter.

Looking now at full year results on the next slide. 2025 was a record year for sales, adjusted operating profit, operating cash flow and adjusted EPS. Our net sales were $10.8 billion, a 4% increase compared to 2024. The combination of unrecovered tariffs and the dilutive effect of the recovered portion resulted in a negative impact of around 20 basis points on our operating margin for the year. The adjusted operating income increased by 11% to $1.1 billion. The adjusted operating margin was 10.3% compared to 9.7% in 2024. We our operating cash flow was $1.2 billion, about $100 million higher than in 2024. And the adjusted earnings per share rose 18% to $9.85 and reflecting higher net profit and the benefit of a reduced share count from repurchase activities. The earnings per share has grown on average by close to 18% per year since 2021. Dividends of $3.12 per share were paid, an increase of 14%, we repurchased shares for $351 million.

Looking now at the cash flow in more detail on the next slide. The operating cash flow for the fourth quarter totaled $544 million, an increase of $124 million, mainly as a result of positive working capital effects. The positive working capital was primarily driven by lower accounts receivables due to lower sales levels towards the end of the quarter and also from $44 million improvement in inventories mainly due to lower sales levels towards the end of the quarter.

Capital expenditures net for the quarter decreased by $22 million. Capital expenditures net in relation to sales was 3.9% versus 5.0% a year earlier. The lower level of capital expenditure net is mainly related to lower footprint CapEx in Europe and Americas and less capacity expansion in Asia. Free operating cash flow for the quarter was $434 million compared to $288 million in the same period the prior year, mainly due to higher operating cash flow and lower CapEx. For the full year, free operating cash flow was $734 million.

Over the past 5 years, we have delivered average annual free operating cash flow growth of 25%, reflecting improved profitability and capital management discipline. The cash conversion for the full year, defined as free operating cash flow in relation to net income was 100%, exceeding our target of at least 80%.

Now looking at our trade working capital development on the next slide. We continue to advance our capital efficiency program with a target of improving working capital by $800 million. Over the last 5 years, we have improved working capital by approximately $740 million. Improved cash conversion supports a stronger balance sheet and supports our ability to deliver attractive shareholder returns. Compared to the prior year, trade working capital increased by $106 million, where the main drivers were $243 million in higher accounts receivables, $208 million in higher accounts payables, and $72 million in higher inventories. This increase in trade working capital was mainly due to increased sales. In relation to sales, it was virtually unchanged year-over-year at 10.8% despite higher cooler volatility towards the end of the quarter.

Now looking on our shareholder returns on the next slide. Over the years, Autoliv has demonstrated its ability to generate solid cash flow across different market conditions. During 2025, we returned approximately $590 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. Over the past 5 years, we have improved our debt leverage while returning $2.44 billion directly to shareholders. This includes repurchases totaling nearly $1.4 billion and dividends of almost $1.1 billion.

In 2025, we substantially increased the quarterly dividend from $0.70 to $0.87 per share, representing a 24% increase. Since initiating the previous stock repurchase program in 2022, we have reduced the number of outstanding shares by almost 15%. When executing the program, we consider several factors, including our balance sheet, the cash flow outlook, our credit rating and the general business conditions as well as the debt leverage ratio. We always strive to balance what is best for our shareholders in both the short and long term.

Now looking on our debt leverage ratio development on the next slide. Autoliv's balanced leverage strategy reflects prudent financial management, enabling resilience, innovation and sustained stakeholder value over time. Our leverage ratio improved from 1.3x to 1.1x during the quarter despite accelerated shareholder returns. Our net debt decreased by over $200 million. The 12-month trailing adjusted EBITDA was $3 million lower in the quarter.

Now on to the next slide. And with that, I hand it back to you, Mikael.

Thank you, Fredrik. I will talk about the outlook for 2026, more in detail on the next few slides.

Turning to the next slide. Overall, global light vehicle production in 2026 is expected to be slightly down compared to 2025, with regional gains and losses nearly offsetting each other. European light vehicle production is expected to remain broadly unchanged as improved affordability is likely to be offset by rising imports from China.

Looking to North America, U.S. light vehicle sales in 2025 generally outperformed expectations. However, the market is now facing inflationary pressures as automakers seek to recoup at least part of tariff costs. As a result, S&P forecast light vehicle production to decline by 2% in 2026. The North America outlook remains uncertain due to upcoming USMCA negotiations.

Despite weaker demand in China, full year production is expected to show only a modest decline, supported by continued strength in exports. Japan short-term outlook has improved. Supported by tax reductions and the reallocation of production from certain vehicles from Mexico to Japan.

For the year, S&P is forecasting flat light vehicle production. Korean light vehicle production remained subdued given weaker domestic demand and a tougher export environment. In the light vehicle production is expected to increase by 8%, driven by a reduction in purchase taxes on new vehicles with disproportionally benefits smaller and lower-priced models. Geopolitical uncertainty, including tariffs and other trade restrictions, the USMCA review and industrial policy shifts are expected to be the biggest risk to the 2026 light vehicle production outlook.

Now looking on our way forward on the next slide. For the full year 2026, we expect flat organic sales overall. Growth in China, India and South America is expected to be offset by lower sales in North America and Europe, reflecting a limited number of new product launches in those regions.

Turning to profitability. We expect margin expansion supported by higher operational efficiency, ongoing structural cost reductions and improved light vehicle production call volatility. At the same time, we anticipate headwinds from higher raw material costs, particularly gold and from higher depreciation as recent investments come online.

Finally, we expect continued strong operating and free operating cash flow generation. CapEx is expected to be slightly higher than in 2025, but still below 5% of sales as we invest in new manufacturing capacity to meet increasing demand in fast-growing regions such as India.

Now looking more specifically on the first quarter 2026. The first quarter is expected to be the weakest of the year, which is consistent with the normal seasonal pattern for our industry. China is facing near-term demand headwind due to the reduced scrappage and new energy vehicle incentives, alongside elevated inventories of new vehicles.

As a result, light vehicle production in the Chinese market is expected to decline by more than 10% in the first quarter. As a result, Q1 global light vehicle production is expected to decline by nearly 1 million units or 4% compared with the same period last year. Sequentially versus Q4 2025, LVP is expected to fall by 3.3 million units or 14%, about twice the normal sequential decline. We expect adjusted operating margin in the first quarter to decline significantly compared to Q1 2025, primarily due to lower light vehicle production, lower engineering income high depreciation and amortization in relation to sales. It's also worth noting that Q1 operating income last year included $12 million positive impact from the sale of our Russia operations.

Turning to the next slide. This slide shows our full year 2026 guidance, which excludes effects from capacity alignment and antitrust-related matters. It is based on no material changes to tariffs or trade restrictions that are in effect as of January 23, 2026, as well as no significant changes in the macroeconomic environment for changes in customer call or volatility or significant supply chain disruptions. We expect to outperform light vehicle production by around 1 percentage points as our organic sales is expected to be flat, while global light vehicle production is expected to decline by 1%.

The net currency translation effect on sales is expected to be around 1% positive. The guidance for adjusted operating margin is around 10.5% to 11%. Operating cash flow is expected to be around $1.2 billion. We expect CapEx to be below 5% of sales. Our positive cash flow and strong balance sheet supports our continued commitment to a high level of shareholder return. We expect a tax rate of around 28%.

And now looking on the next slide. This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions from analysts and investors. Now I hand it back to our operating operator, Sandra.

[Operator Instructions] We will now take the first question from the line of Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

Great. Is there a way to frame some of the major puts and takes when you talk about margins on Slide 25, in particular. I think you mentioned it was about $30 million in cost savings. Is that the structural bucket? How large is the raw material drag? Any way to quantify that? And then two things not mentioned on the puts and takes. Engineering was a drag last year. Is that good news in '26? And is there any FX or peso impact that we should be worried about?

Yes. Thanks for the question. So the puts and takes, if I tried to quantify the more explain a bit more in detail. So on the raw material side, we had about $10 million in headwinds in '25 for the full year, and we expect that to be a larger headwind in '26, so more around $30 million headwind. So that's mainly related to nonferrous metals. And here, the largest headwind is from gold actually.

Then on the RD&E part, for the full year, we expect the RD&E cost as a percent of sales to be more or less flat. And that was also the case in 2025. It's just the timing in '25 was different compared to 2024. But if you look at the full year cost as a percent of sales, it was more or less unchanged. And that's also what we expect for '26 in terms of percent of sales.

Then FX, that had about $20 million positive impact in '25 million, and we expect that the current or the rates that we have included in the forecast, which they've changed a little bit since then on our guidance. It would indicate a similar positive effect of around maybe $20 million for '26 million, again, which is -- as in '25.

And then lastly, the structural cost savings, so we have now achieved about $100 million of the $130 million that we set out or detailed out when we announced the plan. So it's about $30 million left, of which we expect to get $20 million here in this year and then the remaining $10 million next year. So that's maybe some more quantifications there on the puts and takes for '26.

Yes. That was very helpful. Just as a follow-up, there was media reports earlier this week that Hyundai has an airbag recall, and I think the reports are saying that you were a supplier? Is that quantified in the guidance? Any color you could provide there? I guess a lot of investors are always a little worried when there's recalls. Yes, is there -- or is that very specific to those models that were recall?

Thank you for the question. I think as I said, it just came out here. And I mean, we're working together with the customer here, but at this point, there is no indication really towards our products and so forth. But we continue to work with [ there ] to support them, but there are nothing more really to say at this point on that. So right now, at this point, no indication towards us.

We will now take the next question from the line of Gautam Narayan from RBC.

The first one is on the 2026 guidance, you're calling for a 1% outperformance versus the market. In the last quarter, Q4, you did, I think, a 3% outperformance. Just wanted to know if we could just better understand why the outperformance is only 1%. I know the market items you called out, the launch delays in North America and Europe, those are kind of impacting LVP is this perhaps worse for you guys? Just trying to understand the Autoliv's specific why the outperformance, I guess, is only 1%. And then I have a follow-up.

Yes. Thank you. I mean, first of all, I think this is very much in line with what we have talked about for quite some while here about our organic growth components where we have the 4% to 6% breaking up into three pieces, you could say, our contributors.

And light vehicle production there stands for the first 1% to 2% and then our content or yes, the safety market as such, 1% to 2% and then our Mobility Safety Solutions 1% to 2%. And here, we've been also clear that the 1% to 2% related to mobility Safety Solutions is more towards the 2030 time horizon which leaves us with the LVP and the content there.

And LVP, as we mentioned, is negative. So the 1% that we outperformed here is the consistent with the 1% to 2% CPV contributor here, even though it's the lower end of the range here. And as we have indicated here, I think we have faced headwinds during 2025 due to the mix, mix effect where the, let's say, the lower-end vehicles with lower content has been the ones that really have been growing.

And for 2026, we expect a neutral mix effect, meaning that the mix structure we have now is moving into 2026 and then the lower end of the range of 1% for content growth. So I think it hangs very well together with what we have communicated in the past and our expectation as well here. Of course, we would like to have seen some more positive mix effects coming through here, but we don't see that right now here for 2026. But it will come further down the road here, I believe.

Got it. Understood. That's actually very helpful. My follow-up is, we've all seen the registration data in Europe in the recent months with obviously the Chinese OEMs really gaining share very quickly in certain countries. Maybe you could just -- I know you talked about this a little in the prepared commentary, but maybe just give a little more detail on how you guys are performing with exports and also prospective production in Europe from the Chinese OEMs.

Yes. Thank you. No, I think, I mean, as we have indicated here, I think our overall ambitions here to grow with the Chinese OEMs, in general, is progressing very well. And we basically have, I said, double our decision here in the last couple of years here. And have a very strong position in China as the market leader there.

And one of the, I think, strength we have here is really that we can support our Chinese customers as they move outside their home market. And as we reported here, we are happy to share that we have on, first, very important quote here with one of the Chinese customers setting up production in Europe, and we are the only external supplier to that platform, which, of course, is really good indication of where we are at.

However, I mean, right, so far, it's not the massive localization taking place right now. We are on many of the vehicles that are exported into Europe, of course. But I think it's still some way to go until we see really high volumes of localized Chinese production going forward here. Bottom line is we are well position for that.

We will now take the next question from the line of Agnieszka Vilela from Nordea.

I have two questions. Maybe starting with your orders progress. Can you tell us what is your estimation of your current market share in the industry? And also, as I understand, you are making progress with the China OEM, but are you keeping your position with the Western OEs?

Yes. I mean we had a market share of 44% in 2024. We can also report -- we are reporting a market share of 44% in 2025. So yes, we are defending our market share position globally here. And an important part of that, of course, is that we see such a strong growth also with the Chinese OEMs here. And continue to be in focus.

But we shouldn't forget also our strong position in India, which we also mentioned here, where we -- with 60 -- roughly 60% market share in the Indian market, see strong CPV growth and also light vehicle production growth. And I think also India is growing its importance as a global hub as well. So of course, with our position there and that growth. We're also well positioned there to continue to build on our market position globally here.

Yes, understood. And then the second question is on the raw material headwind that you assumed for 2026 of $30 million or about $30 million. How did you calculate the -- calculate that headwind? Did you use any kind of spot prices that you see? And if in that case, from what to date? Or are you using some contract prices that you have?

It's a mix of both. So in some cases, we have some long-term agreements with our suppliers, that's mostly related to steel in Europe. But then we also have contracts which are updated, yes, anywhere between quarterly up to annually. And then we based the forecast here on different index forecast that we have available. And it's -- we lock this forecast at say, late November. We lock the prices and that's what the $30 million is estimated or based on. So we see a headwind from steel. But as I said, the largest impact we see from gold and the [ res ] part.

And just to understand that this is net of any potential compensations that you would be getting for that?

This is a gross impact we're talking about -- so this is only how our costs will be impacted. This is not the net impact on our P&L.

We will now take the next question from the line of Winnie Dong from Deutsche Bank.

I wanted to just go back to the order intake lifetime sales chart. Just wanted to ask what part of this do you think is structural and what part of it is more temporary. I would just take a step back. We've been talking about that we're in the phase of OEMs reconsidering their future offerings due to many different market factors. And then like where are we do you think is in this phase of uncertainty? And then I have a follow-up.

Yes. I think when you look at that number, as I said, it's in lifetime, slightly low compared to historic but in line with the previous year. And I would say the structural part is the effect you get from the more higher turnover of platforms.

So I mean, as we take the Chinese here, for example, with the high pace of renewal of their model programs, then you get that effect. And I think that will continue. I think there will continue to be a high pace of new models coming out, meaning that you have end of life also coming quicker here for the models here. So I think that at least for a period of time here, I think that's a long-term effect.

I think the short-term effect here is the cancellation of programs that were intended to launch here as the uncertainty around the driveline question here is prominent here and now. That should, of course, be of a temporary nature. So we get more -- to more certain product planning that has cleared out. So you have a little bit of both here in these numbers for 2025.

Okay. Got it. That's very helpful. My second question is on the foldable steering wheels that you guys unbilled for autonomous driving. Will this be essentially like the first of many products to come potentially for autonomous driving? And then, just curious on the -- any potential customer feedback that you might have? And when do you foresee for this to take off? And if you can also comment on content versus traditional steering wheels.

I think, I mean, in general, starting with last question, I think in general, with more advanced product is a good thing from a growth point of view, for sure. And I think the whole autonomous, even if it's still early days when it comes to volume. We see a lot of interesting and attractive innovation opportunities here where the foldable steering wheel is one. Then, of course, zero gravity seats, even if that's applicable also on the traditional vehicles is for sure, becoming even more interesting in an autonomous vehicle. So comfort is one driver there. And I think as we said, we will launch this together with our customer here towards the end of 2026.

So of course, volume-wise, it's not big in 2026. And then it depends on, of course, the ramp-up of autonomous vehicles going forward here. So I think it's more a long-term and a medium-term play at least here. But the important thing here is that I think we see great opportunities in the changing of vehicles going forward here, both when we talk to drivelines as well as autonomous vehicle is positive from a content point of view.

And also on the reactions you asked about here, is very positive here, and we have had several approaches and discussions after that presentation there at CES. So very positive response on [ the ].

We will now take the next question from the line of Jairam Nathan from Daiwa Capital Markets America.

I just -- you mentioned how the mix or the regional mix is changing. And I just wanted to understand if there is -- it offers more opportunities in terms of structural efficiencies or footprint rationalizations going forward?

Yes, I think, I mean, we are, of course, extremely focused on continuing to sharpen our abilities here to drive efficiency and productivity and all those things, and that we will continue with. I don't think the mix changes that we have talked about here, the mix changes temporary mix composition here is something that has a major impact on our need to do this. I think what we do and what we drive here to improve the company fits well into also manage that, of course.

So I don't see any drama in it in terms of our possibilities here to generate earnings growth and cash flow, et cetera, but it's more from, as we said, and the light vehicle production outperformance measurement. But it's is more of a temporary point of view, I think.

Okay. And my follow-up was on when you initially announced a 12% medium-term goal for margins, I think there was $85 million or over $85 million LVP. I'm just trying to understand, given that the mix changes again and higher mix of lower content regions, would that -- would you need to update that $85 million and you might need to maybe increase it to hit that 12%.

No. I mean, we are very firm and committed on the 12%. I think what we have said here that the 85% is -- it's also a mix effect, as you mentioned here. And also we have markets here that has disappeared since we talked about that certain regions that we can't operate in any longer, as well as -- we have some customers that have taken a large share of the growth here that has their own domestic and, of course, thinking about BYD and SIC that stands for a large portion of the difference there in between that is more of a captive solution.

So of course, we see that we can continue to drive our own controllable activities here to support our growth. So we are not hesitating on our ability to get there.

We will now take the next question from the line of Hampus Engellau from Handelsbanken.

Two questions for me. Just a question on this domestic Chinese OEM that you got business in Europe with. Is that an already existing client to you guys in China? Or is it a new client? And fundamentals behind this, is this basically transportation cost if it's not the client in China? And second question is just to get a sense of your margin guidance for the full year, the upper range, the 11%,s that within your control? Or is it just -- is it the stability in customer call-ups is that the denominator there?

Thank you, Hampus. Regarding the customer there, it's a customer we interact with already. So it's established relationships. So it's not a completely new customer for us.

And then on the second question, I don't know if you would like to take it further here. But I would say, I mean, this is, as always, a guidance best on our best knowledge about the future. And what we see here in terms of the external environment, et cetera, is what we have taken into this.

So I mean, within this range, of course, is within our own control, then of course, where you can end up a little bit depends on many things, of course, as always. So I think the range is there as it has been now for also last year, is because of the high level of uncertainty in the world around us here.

But of course, we feel comfortable on our road here road ahead here to have earnings growth and also the new guidance of $1.2 billion in cash flow here. So that's within lot of our own control. And what we can see also -- just as a reference there, I mean, when we talk about last year's results, is primarily, if not all coming from our own internal [ sites ].

And [ just ] -- I know we need to, but the customer call -- are you getting indications that it's kind of resuming to the trend...

No, on the call off here, I mean, that we dropped in the fourth quarter here, we see as a temporary thing. So we expect that to least come back to the 95-ish that we talked about. And I'm still a strong believer that over time, we will get back to pre-pandemic levels when we get presuming more stable external environment here as an industry. But for sure, getting back to where we were before Q4 here, because the volatility here was very much related to some OEMs deciding to -- with very short notice or no noise at all soft production to manage the inventory situations. We also had some cases with some customers have had some supply issues inventory management and supply chain issues.

We will now take the last question from the line of Emmanuel Rosner from Wolfe Research.

I wanted to ask you again about the margin walk and improvement for this year. So on basically stable organic growth, you're still planning to achieve pretty meaningful margin expansion. And you gave some of the puts and takes and you -- very helpfully quantified some of them before. But I was wondering if there's a couple that we can come back to.

In particular, currency, looks like the peso has moved quite a bit. So I've been surprised that it's not a little bit more of a headwind. So maybe you have some other offsets that you could talk about? And then on the positive side, I think you clarified for us the structural cost reduction, but curious about how do you think about the operational efficiency and the call-off benefit, I guess, the positive pieces of the equation.

Yes. On the FX part, we do expect, as in 2025, a larger part of the positive development here from the translational effect. I mean, we saw actually on the transactional part, we also saw a net or a negative effect in '25, and that could also continue as to imply here in '26. But the overall results were impacted then expect to be slightly positive.

On the structural cost savings, as I said, $20 million of the $30 million remaining coming in we do then expect also further improvements from our operational improvement programs. I mean, automation digitalization. Those contributed quite significantly here in '25 already. and we expect further improvements also from that year in '26. So I hope that answers your question a bit better then.

Yes, I didn't quite catch the FX piece of it, though. Would you mind just going back over this?

Yes. So as I said, in '25, we actually -- on the transactional part, which then includes our exposure to the peso, mostly, we had a negative effect year-over-year for the full year. But the major -- or the positive part was from translational effects and that we expect to continue also in '26 with a similar picture as we stand today. I mean now the dollar has depreciated a bit further versus the assumptions we have based our guidance on. So that could also then have a larger or more positive impact on the top line and potentially also on the bottom line.

Understood. And then also just following up on the raw materials piece, if you could give some good color for what the growth it would be. Just curious if you can give a little bit more in terms of which of the specific materials, I guess, are most impactful within that and how things have essentially been evolving in terms of input costs?

Yes. So as I said, it's -- we expect a gross headwind of a little bit less than $30 million. And then basically, half of that we expect from gold alone of that headwind or closer to 2/3 actually. Then the second largest headwind we expect from steel. And then behind that copper, whereas we expect yarn actually to be a tailwind for us at the current pricing levels.

That is all the time we have for questions today. I would now like to turn the conference back to Mikael Bratt for closing remarks.

Thank you, Sandra. Before we conclude today's call, I would like to say that I'm confident that our strong market position and growth momentum in Asia, especially in China and India, sets us up well for continued success. Combined with our proven ability to strengthen profitability also in a low growth environment. We have a solid foundation for delivering attractive shareholder return and a clear path towards achieving our 10% adjusted operating margin target. Our first quarter call is scheduled for Friday, April 17, 2026. Thank you for your attention until next time, stay safe.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Autoliv, Inc. Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] Please note that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your first speaker, Anders Trapp, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Lars. Welcome, everyone, to our third quarter 2025 earnings call. On this call, we have our President and Chief Executive Officer, Mikael Bratt; our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin; and me Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations.

During today's earnings call, we will highlight several key areas, including our record-breaking third quarter sales and earnings, as well as our continued strategic investments to drive long-term success with Chinese OEMs. We also provide an update on market developments and the evolving tariff landscape impacting the automotive industry. Finally, our robust balance sheet and strong asset returns reinforce our financial resilience and support sustained high levels of shareholder returns.

Following the presentation, we will be available to answer your questions. And as usual, the slides are available at autoliv.com.

Turning to the next slide. We have the safe harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows.

During the presentation, we will reference some non-news GAAP measures. The reconciliations of historical use GAAP non-use GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly earnings release available on autoliv.com and in the 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC or at the end of this presentation. Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3:00 pm CET. So please follow a limit of two questions per person. I now hand it over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide. I am pleased to share yet another record-breaking quarter, underscoring our strong market position. This success is a testament to the strength of our customer relationships and our commitment to continuous improvement as we navigate the complexities of tariffs and other challenging economic factors. We saw a significant sales growth, driven by higher than expected light vehicle production across multiple regions, especially in China and North America.

Our high growth in India continues, accounting for 1/3 of our global organic growth. I am pleased to highlight that our sales growth with Chinese OEMs has returned to outperformance driven by recent product launches and encouraging development. Looking ahead, we anticipate to significantly outperform light vehicle production in China during the fourth quarter. We improved our operating profit and operating margin compared to a year ago. This strong performance was primarily driven by well-executed activities to improve efficiency higher sales and the supplier compensation for an earlier recall.

We successfully recovered approximately 75% of the tariff cost occurred -- incurred during the third quarter and expect to recover most of the remaining portion of existing tariffs later this year. The combination of not yet recovered tariffs and the dilutive effects of the recovered portion resulted in a negative impact of approximately 20 basis points on our operating margin in the quarter.

We also achieved record earnings per share for the third quarter. Over the past 5 years, we have more than tripled our earnings per share mainly driven by strong net profit growth, but also supported by a reduced share count. Our cash flow remained robust despite higher receivables driven by higher sales and tariff compensations later in the quarter.

Our solid performance, combined with a healthy debt level ratio supports continuous strong shareholder return. We remain committed to our ambition of achieving 300 million to 500 million annual in stock repurchases as outlined during our Capital Markets Day in June. Additionally, we have increased our quarter dividend to $ 0.85 per share, reflecting our confidence in our continued financial strength and long-term value creation.

Expanding in China is key to strengthening Autoliv's innovation, global competitiveness and long-term growth. To support our growing support our growing partnerships with Chinese OEMs, we are investing in a second R&D center in China. In October, we announced a new important collaboration in China as illustrated on the next slide. We have signed a strategic agreement with Qatar the leading research institution setting standards in Chinese automotive sector. This partnership marks a new chapter in our commitment to shaping the future of automotive safety. Together with Qatar, we aim to define the next generation of safety standards and enhance the safety on the roads in China and globally. We're also broadening our reach in automotive safety electronics as shown on the next slide.

We recently announced our plan to form a joint venture with HSAE, a leading Chinese automotive electronics developer to develop and manufacture advanced safety electronics. The joint venture will concentrate on high growth areas in advanced safe electronics, including ECUs for active spa, hands-on detection systems for steering wind and the development and production of steering wheel switches. Through this new joint venture, we intend to capture more value from steering wheels and active diesel while minimizing CapEx and competence expansion enabling faster market entry with lower technology and execution risks.

Looking now on financials in more detail on the next slide. Third quarter sales increased by 6% year-over-year, driven by strong outperformance relative to light vehicle production in Asia and South America. Along with favorable currency effects and tariff-related compensation. This growth was partly offset by an unfavorable regional and customer mix. The adjusted operating income for Q3 increased by 14% to USD 271 million from USD 237 million last year. The adjusted operating margin was 10%, 70 basis points better than in the same quarter last year.

Operating cash flow was solid USD 258 million, an increase of USD 81 million or 46% compared to last year. Looking now on the next slide. We continue to deliver broad-based improvement with particularly strong progress in direct costs and SG&A expenses. Our positive direct labor productivity trend continues as we reduced our direct production personnel by 1,900 year-over-year. This is supported by the implementing our strategic initiatives, including automation and digitalization.

Our gross margin was 19.3%, and an increase of 130 basis points year-over-year. The improvement was mainly the result of direct labor efficiency, head count reductions and compensation from a supplier. RD&E net cost costs rose both sequentially and year-over-year, primarily due to lower engineering income due to timing of specific customer development projects. Thanks to our cost saving initiatives, SG&A expenses decreased from the first half year level combined with the increased gross margin, this led to 70 basis points improvement in adjusted operating margin.

Looking now on the market development in the third quarter on the next slide. According to S&P Global data from October, global light vehicle production for the third quarter increased 4.6%. The exceeding the expectations from the beginning of the quarter by 4 percentage points. Supported by the scrapping and replacement subsidy policy we continue to see strong growth for domestic OEMs in China. Light vehicle demand and production in North America has proven significantly more resilient than previously anticipated.

In contrast, light vehicle production in other high content per vehicle market, namely Western Europe and Japan, declined by approximately 2% to 3%, respectively. The global regional light vehicle production mix was approximately 1 percentage point unfavorable during the quarter. Despite the important North American market showing a positive trend. In the quarter, we did see call-off volatility continue to improve year-over-year and sequentially from the first half year. The industry may experience increased volatility in the fourth quarter, stemming from a recent fire incident at an aluminum production plant in North America. And production adjustments by key European customers in response to shifting demand. We will talk about the market development more in detail later in the presentation.

Looking now on sales growth in more detail on the next slide. Our consolidated net sales were over USD 2.7 billion the highest for the third quarter so far. This was around USD 150 million higher than last year, driven by price, volume, positive currency translation effects and USD 14 million from tariff-related compensations. Excluding currencies, our organic growth sales -- organic sales grew by 4%, including tariff costs and compensation. China accounted for 90% of our group sales. Asia, including China, accounted for 20% and Americas was 33% and Europe for around 28%. We outlined our organic sales growth compared to light vehicle production on the next slide.

Our quarterly sales were robust and exceeded our expectations, driven by strong performance across most regions, particularly in Americas, West of Asia and China. Based on light vehicle production data from October, we underperformed slightly production by 0.7 percentage points globally as a result of a negative regional mix of 1.3 percentage points. We underperformed slightly in Europe, primarily due to an unfavorable model and customer. In the rest of Asia, we outperformed the market with 8 percentage points, driven primarily by strong sales growth in India and to a lesser extent, in South Korea.

While the organic light vehicle production mix should continue to impact our overall performance in China, our sales to domestic OEMs grew by almost 23%. ,8 percentage points more than their light vehicle production growth. Our sales development with the global customers in China was 5 percentage points lower tender light vehicle production development as our sales declined to some key customers, such as Volkswagen, Toyota and [indiscernible].

On the next slide, we show some key model launches. The third quarter of 25% or a high number of new launches, primarily in including China. Although some of these new launches in China remain undisclosed here, confidentiality, the new launches reflecting a strong momentum for Autoliv this important market. The models displayed here feature Autoliv content per vehicle from USD 150 to close to USD 400. We're also pleased to have launched airbags and seatbelts on another small Japanese cars, this is the main [indiscernible] Autoliv has historically had limited exposure to these segments in Iran.

In terms of Autoliv's sales potential, the [ Onvo ] L9 is the most significant. Higher content per vehicle is driven by front center airbags on five of these vehicles. Now looking at the next slide. I will now hand it over to Fredrik Westin.

Thank you, Mikael. I will talk about the financials more in detail now on the line. So turning to the next slide. This slide highlights our key figures for the third quarter of 2025 compared to the third quarter of 2024. The net sales were approximately $ 2.7 billion, representing a 6% increase. The gross profit increased by $ 63 million and the gross margin increased by 130 basis points. The drivers behind the gross profit improvement were mainly lower material costs positive effects from the higher sales and improved operational efficiency. This was partly offset by negative effects from recalls and warranty, depreciation and unrecovered tariff costs.

The adjusted operating income increased from $ 237 million to $ 271 million, and the adjusted operating margin increased by 70 basis points to 10.3%. The reported operating income of $ 267 million was $ 4 million lower than the adjusted operating income.

Adjusted earnings per share diluted increased 26% or by $0.48, where the main drivers were $0.29 from higher operating income from taxes and $0.08 from lower number of shares. This marks our ninth consecutive quarter of growth in adjusted earnings per share, underscoring the strength of our ongoing operational improvements and further bolstered by a reduced share count from our share buyback program. Our adjusted return on capital employed was a solid 25.5%, and our adjusted return on equity was 28.3%.

We paid a dividend of $0.85 per share in the quarter, and we repurchased shares for USD 100 million and retired 0.8 million shares. Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide.

In the third quarter of 2025, our adjusted operating income increased by $ 34 million. portion attributed with $ 43 million, mainly from higher organic sales and from the execution of operational improvement plans, supported by better call-off volatility. The out-of-period cost compensation was $ 8 million lower than last year. Costs for RD&E net and SG&A increased by $ 30 million, mainly due to lower engineering income. The net currency effect was $ 6 million positive, mainly from translation effects. Last year's supplier settlement and this year's supplier compensation combined had a $ 29 million positive impact.

The combination of unrecovered tariffs and the dilutive effect of the recovered portion resulted in a negative impact of approximately 20 basis points on our operating margin in the quarter.

Looking now at the cash flow on the next slide. The operating cash flow for the third quarter of 2025 totaled $ 258 million, an increase of $ 81 million compared to the same period last year, mainly as a result of higher net income, partly offset by $ 53 million negative working capital effects. The negative working capital was primarily driven by higher receivables, reflecting strong sales and delayed tariff compensation towards the end of the quarter.

Capital expenditures net decreased by $ 40 million. Capital expenditures net in relation to sales was 3.9% versus 5.7% a year earlier. The lower level of capital expenditures net is mainly related to lower footprint CapEx in Europe and Americas and less capacity expansion in Asia. The free operating cash flow was $ 153 million, compared to $ 32 million in the same period the prior year from higher operating cash flow and the lower CapEx net.

The cash conversion in the quarter, defined as free operating cash flow in relation to the net income was around 87%, in line with our target of at least 80%. Now looking at our trade working capital development on the next slide.

The trade working capital increased by $ 197 million compared to the prior year, were the main drivers for $165 million in higher accounts receivables, $ 8 million in higher accounts payables and $40 million in higher inventories. The increase in trade working capital is mainly due to increased sales and temporarily higher inventories. In relation to sales, the trade working capital increased from 12.8% to 13.9%. We view the increase in trade working capital is temporary as our multiyear improvement program continues to deliver results. Additionally, enhanced customer call of accuracy should enable a more efficient inventory management.

Now looking at our debt leverage ratio development on the next slide. Autoliv's balanced leverage strategy reflects our prudent financial management, enabling resilience, innovation and sustained stakeholder value over time. The leverage ratio remains low at 1.3x, below our target limit of 1.5x and has remained stable compared to both the end of the second quarter and the same period last year. This comes despite returning $ 530 million to shareholders over the past 12 months. Our net debt increased by $ 20 million and the 12 months trailing adjusted EBITDA was $ 41 million higher in the quarter. With that, I hand it back to you, Mikael.

Thank you, Fredrik. On to the next slide. The outlook for the global auto industry has improved call for North America and China. While the industry continues to navigate the trade volatility and other regional dynamics, S&P now forecast global light vehicle production to grow by 2% in 2025, following growth over -- of over 4% in the first 9 months of the year.

The outlook for the fourth quarter has significantly improved. Nevertheless, they still anticipate a decline in light vehicle production of approximately 2.7% in the quarter. In North America, the outlook for light vehicle production has been significantly upgraded driven by resilient demand and low new vehicle inventories. However, a recent fire incident at an aluminum production plant in North America may impact our customers.

For Europe, S&P forecast of 1.8% decline in light vehicle production for the fourth quarter despite some easing of U.S. import tariffs. We continue to see downside risks for Europe, like the European light vehicle production, driven by announced production stoppage at several key customers.

In China, light vehicle production is expected to decline by 5%, primarily due to an exceptionally strong Q4 in 2024. Nevertheless, S&P anticipate sustained growth in Chinese LVP over the medium term, supported by favorable government policies for new energy vehicles. more relaxed out the loan regulations and increasing export volumes.

The outlook for Japan Light vehicle production has improved as carmakers are increasingly shifting exports to markets outside the U.S., aiming to mitigate reduced export volumes to the U.S. In South Korea, domestic demand has been steadily recovering, while exports have also risen driven by increased shipments to other regions compensating for the decline in exports to the U.S. Now looking on our way forward on the next slide.

We expect the fourth quarter of 2025 to be challenging for the automotive industry with lower light vehicle production and geopolitical challenges. However, our continued focus on efficiency should help offset some of these headwinds. Consistent with typical seasonal patterns, the fourth quarter is expected to be the strongest of the year. Despite the expected decline in global light vehicle production year-over-year, we foresee higher sales and continued outperformance, particularly in China. Unfortunately, we are also facing some year-over-year headwind.

Unlike the past 3 years, we do not expect out-of-period inflation compensation in the fourth quarter given the shift in the inflationary environment. We expect higher depreciation costs due to new manufacturing capacity to meet demand in the key regions and that the temporary decline in engineering income will persist, driven by the timing of specific customer development projects. These factors combined in the reason for why we currently expect the full year adjusted operating margin to come in at the midpoint of the guided range. However, our solid cash conversion and balance sheet provides mentions and a robust foundation for maintaining high shareholder returns.

Turning to the next slide. This slide shows our full year 2025 guidance which excludes effects from capacity alignment and antitrust-related matters. It is based on no material changes to tariffs or trade restrictions that are in effect [indiscernible] 2025. As well as no significant changes in the macroeconomic environment or changes in customer call of volatility or significant supply chain disruptions.

Our organic sales is expected to increase by around 3%. The guidance for adjusted operating margin is around 10% to 10.5%. With only 1 quarter remaining of the year, we expect to be in the middle of the range. Operating cash flow is expected to be around USD 1.2 billion. We now expect CapEx to be around 4.5% of sales. revised from the previous guidance of around 5%. Our positive cash flow and strong balance sheet supports our continued commitment to a high level of shareholder return. Our full year guidance is based on a global light vehicle production growth of around 1.5% and a tax rate of around 28%. The net currency translation effects on sales will be around 1% positive.

Looking on the next slide. This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions from analysts and investors. I now hand it back to [indiscernible].

[Operator Instructions] And the questions come from the line of Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

You raised your light vehicle production forecast from down 1.5% to up 1.5%, but organic sales didn't change why aren't you seeing any benefit from the stronger production environment on your organic?

Yes. Thanks for your question. So the -- there are a couple of components here. I mean, first one is that some of these adjustments that we also don't take into account are for past quarters. So some of the volumes have been raised in -- also in the first half, whereas we had already recorded our sales for that. So that doesn't -- so then we had a different outdoor underperformance in the first half of the year. So that's one part of the explanation. And then we also see a larger negative mix now after 9 months and also expect that for the full year. That is close to 2 percentage points. This negative market mix, which is also one of the reasons. And that's even less unfavorable now than we saw at the quarter ago.

So those are some explanations. And then on top of that, we see that some of the launches in China have been a bit delayed and that they are not coming through fully in line with our expectations that we had here about a quarter ago. So those are the main reasons why you don't see that LVP estimate increase comes through on our organic sales guidance.

Got it. And then the margin in the quarter was very strong. I thought Q3 is typically your -- one of your weaker margins. Anything unusual in the quarter? I noticed you flagged supplier settlements. I kind of get the nonrepeated bad news last year. Is the $15 million of supplier compensation additional good news, is that onetime in nature? How should we think of that or anything else that's maybe possibly onetime in nature in the quarter that drove the strong margin?

Yes. The $ 50 million there is a one time. It is compensation from a supplier for historical cost that we have versus our customers there. So it's onetime in the quarter here for previous costs that we have had. So I would say here also that I think what you saw in the quarter here was that we had slightly higher sales than expected. So that was an important component, of course. But I think most importantly here is that we continue to see a very strong delivery of the internal improvement work that we are so focused on and that we have been focused on for a while leading to our targets here. So good work done by the whole poly team here across the whole value chain.

And the questions come from the line of Björn Enarson from Danske Bank.

On your implied guidance for Q4 and also on your -- a little bit cautious comments on Q4, it looks like there are a little bit of temporary negative effects that you are talking about or should we extrapolate the Q4 trends looking into 2026? Or are you quite happy with the productivity work and also that call-offs looks again a little bit better. So should we have as a base assumption that you should progress again towards the midterm target of 12%? Or how should we look upon that?

I think, I mean, first of all, that we feel confident when it comes to our ability to eventually get to our 12% target. No doubt about that. And I mean what you see here in the Q3, Q4 movement here is nothing if you read into that. I think, as I said before here, I mean, we see very good progress in terms of the activities that we control ourselves here, and we see really good traction when it comes to the strategic initiatives that we have outdone some time back. So good progress there.

I think -- when you look at Q4 -- over Q4 here, it's, I would say, more of, first of all, a normalization of the quarters here. I mean, is still the strongest quarter in the year. But of course, in the previous last 2, 3 years here, it has been more pronounced since we had this out-of-period compensation that we referred to earlier here. Which you will not see in the same way now in this quarter in Q4 2025. So that there is a difference there. And I would say also here, I mean, you have seen a little bit stronger Q3 when it comes to sales and there is a timing effect between Q3 and Q4 compared to when we looked into the second half year. So there is also a part of the explanation. But the bottom line here, we feel comfortable with our own progress here towards the target that we have.

And then maybe just to build on that, just one more detail on the fourth quarter. we do expect that we will have a slightly lower engineering income also in the fourth quarter, as you saw on the third quarter. This is temporary, and it's very dependent on how the engineering activities are with certain customers. And this should then also recover in 2026.

Okay. I saw that comment. And did you say it's likely to be recovered then in early next year then?

Or next year, overall, yes, should be a recovery ratio that is more in line with -- or a bit higher now than what you see in the second half of this year. And that's, again, very dependent on engineering activities with certain customers and how they reimburse us.

Yes. Because in some cases, it's built in, in the Peace pricing. In some cases, it's paid like engineering income specifically. Depending on how that mix looks over time, of course, you have some smaller fluctuation and that is really what we refer to [indiscernible].

And the questions come from the line of Tom Narayan from RBC.

Maybe a follow-up to that last one. The Q4 guidance. You called out three headwinds, the less compensation on inflation I guess, the higher depreciation and then this engineering income. Just wondering if you could dimensionalize those three in terms of order of magnitude for Q4. I mean, we know the engineering income is temporary. The other two, I guess, depends on certain factors. Just trying to dimensionalize those three in terms of what is temporary and what continues. And then I have a follow-up.

Yes. So I think the income, you can look at the Q3 on a year-over-year basis and how that -- as a percent of sales. And that, I think, is a pretty good indication also for how that could be in the fourth quarter. And that's the largest headwind we will have.

The next one is the fact that we had this out of period, the compensation from our customers related to inflation compensation last year that falls away this -- the second largest and the third largest is the depreciation expense increase.

Okay. And then on the China commentary, we did see -- I think the ID is losing share in China due to some just government initiatives and whatnot. I would have thought that alone would maybe benefit you guys more? I know macro in China, the domestics are doing better than the global. So I see that. I understand that. But just wondering if the share loss at BYD's seen. I know you're under-indexed to them is benefiting you guys?

Yes. I mean in the overall mix, of course, since we are selling components to them, and you see them -- their portion of the total market flattening out. Of course, it's supportive in the sense of measuring our outperformance relative to COEMs, LVP as such. So mathematically, yes, that effect that.

And our next questions come from the line of Mike Aspinall from Jefferies.

One first on India. It was 1/3 of the organic growth. Can you just remind us where we are in the shift in content per vehicle in India and how large India is in terms of sales now?

Yes. I think we are see the strong development in India there and as I said, 1/3 of the growth in the quarter it's today around 5% of our turnover is coming from India. It's not long ago, it was around 2%. So a significant increase of importance there. And we have a very strong market share in India, 60%. So of course, we are benefiting well from the volume growth you see there. And we're expecting India to continue to grow, and we have also invested in our industrial footprint there to be able to defend our market share and to capture the growth here. And content-wise, we expect it to go from it went from $120 in 2024 to roughly USD 140 this year. So you have both content and LVP growth in India to look forward.

And then we are to around $160 to $170 in the next couple of years.

Great. Excellent. And one more. Just on the JV with [ Hancheng ] chain, who are you purchasing these items from before? Were you purchasing from [ Hancheng ] and now to JV or have you formed a JV with them and we're purchasing from someone else previously?

I mean they have been an important supplier to us in the past as well. And of course, we have worked with them and established a very good relationship there. I could say it hasn't been exclusively with them. We have a global supplier base here, but we see a great opportunity here to not only produce but also develop components for our future models and programs here, we work together here, both on development and manufacturing.

Okay. So they're moving, I guess, from a supplier and now you guys are going to be working together.

And the questions come from the line of Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho.

Mike, just quickly on the China side. I know you mentioned subsidies. When you look at the NAV and the scrapping subsea, fleet is down 50% this year. Do you expect that to be extended to '26? Or is there going to be another step down? And I have a follow-up.

Yes. We I will say we are not speculating in that. So I guess it's anybody is yes here. But I think, overall, we definitely look very positively on China. And as we have mentioned here before, we are growing our share with the Chinese OEMs here and good development in the quarter here. And we're also investing in China as well here.

So as I mentioned in the presentation here earlier, I mean, we are investing in a second R&D center in Wuhan to make sure that we also continue to work closer with the broader base of customers there to adding capacity. We talked about the JV of now here. And then also the partnership with Qatar care here is important steps here. So all in all, looking positively on China going forward here for sure. So subsidies or not, we will see. But overall, it's pointing in the right direction here.

Got it. And then I think on the -- as you look at the European market, a lot of talk about price competition and imports coming in from Asia and tariffs, et cetera. How do you see the European market play out European auto market play out for 2026?

Yes. I think we wait to comment on '26 for the next quarterly earnings here when it's can for it. But as we have said here for the remainder of the year, we are cautious about the European market more from a demand point of view than anything else. I think -- that's really the main question mark around the market and anything else in terms of OEM reoffering or anything like that. I mean it's really the end consumer question. it comes to you.

And the questions come from the line of Emmanuel Rosner from Wolfe Research.

My first question is actually a follow-up, I think, on Colin's question around the organic growth outlook, which is unchanged despite the better LDP. I'm not sure that I understood all the factors, but if we wanted to frame it as like growth above market, initially, you were going to grow 3% despite a shrinking market, now growing 3% in a market that would be growing 1.5%. Can you maybe just go back over the factors that are driving this different expectation for outperformance?

Yes. In that sense, I mean the largest change over yes, a couple of quarters here since we started the year is the negative market mix. So as I said, we now see a negative market mix for the full year of around 2 percentage points. and that has deteriorated over the course of the year. But that's the largest part. Then we also have seen here in the third quarter, also the negative customer mix for us in mostly North America and Europe. So that's also a deviation to what we expected going into the year. And then the last one that I already mentioned before is that we see some delays on the new launches, in particular in China. So they're not coming through at the same pace that we had expected originally.

Understood. And if I go back to your framework and your midterm margin targets. Can you just maybe remind us the drivers that will get you from the 10% to 10.5% this year towards the where are we tracking on some of those? And I did notice that you mentioned improved cold pull-offs accuracy, both sequentially and year-over-year. Is that something that you expect to continue and that will be helpful for that.

The framework has not changed, as you would probably expect. So it's still -- if we take 2024 as the base point adjusted operating margin, we still expect 80 basis points improvement from the indirect head count reduction. In the reported numbers here now, you don't see a movement in that, but we had about employees from a labor law change in Tunisia that we now have to account for head count that distorts that number. You adjust for that, we would also have shown further progress on the indirect head count reduction. So that is well on track.

There was a 60 basis points from normalization of call-offs. That is developing well. We saw 94% call of accuracy here and also in the third quarter, which is an improvement on a year-over-year basis. We also talked about that we have decreased our direct head count by 1,900 people despite that organic growth was up 4% on a year-over-year basis. So that's tracking very well. And then the remaining 90 basis points would be from growth component, where we are a little bit behind now this year as we laid or as you talked about before, and then from automation digitalization. And there again, you can see, I think, on the gross margin, even if you exclude the settlement here with the supplier, you can also see there that we are progressing well on that component.

And the questions come from the line of Jairam Nathan from Daiwa Capital Markets.

I just wanted to kind of go back to the announcement in out of China. Just wanted to understand the timing, it seems it kind of coincided with also the -- with the announcement of Adient, the 0 gravity product. So just wonder is there -- is this the timing related to some -- a new business win or more opportunities there?

You're talking about JV or?

The JV, the Qatar partnership as well as the kind of announced you kind of finalize the Adient gravity product.

I was going to say they're not connected at all as such because, I mean, the JV here is really to vertically integrate in an effective way together with the partner to gain a broader product offering here to say that we also yes, more to our end customer, basically. Qatar is, of course, a development collaboration to make safer vehicles safer roads for everyone. So it's including light vehicles, commercial vehicles and valuable radiuses, meaning 2-wheelers, et cetera. So the broad-based research collaboration there. And then the AGM, of course, is connected to the 0 gravities. So I mean, yes, to some extent, of course, they are all about safety products as such, but they are not connected in any way.

Okay. And just a follow-up, I wanted to understand the lower CapEx. Is that something that can be maintained in as a percentage of sales into the future?

Yes. I think, I mean, we have been talking about this in the past also that our ambition is to bring down the CapEx levels in relation to sales compared to where we have been -- and we've been through a cycle here where we have investing a lot in our facilities around the world here, Europe, where we have consolidated and upgraded a number of plants in BI investments we talked about before. expanding capacity in China. We also upgraded in Japan, et cetera. So last couple of years here, we have invested heavily in upgrading our industrial footprint, and we are coming out now into a more normalized phase here, and that's why we can bring it down here. So we are not expecting to see CapEx jump up back in the near term here.

The questions come from the line of Hampus Engellau from Handelsbanken.

Two questions from my side. Maybe [indiscernible] question, but if I remember correctly, you covered about 80% of the tariff costs in the second quarter, and the remaining 20% came in Q3, and now you're moving around 20% for Q3, you would get in Q4. Is the net effect like 100% compensation, if you account for the things you that came from second quarter to Q3? Or you still a net negative there on the margins?

Let's take the first that one. We are still net negative here, as we said, we have received some of the outstanding 20 in the second quarter. But most of it remains still. And then in the third quarter here, we got 75. So we have accumulated more outstandings from Q2 to Q3. But as we have indicated here, we still expect to get full compensation and catch up on this in the fourth quarter fully compensated. That's our expectations here. Of course, the work is ongoing here as we speak with debt, but that's the net result right now.

Fair enough. And the last question was more related to from what you see today in terms of launches for 2026, maybe compared to 2025 if you have -- could share some light on that?

I have no figure yet for '26 to share with you here. But I think in general terms, I mean, we have good order intake here to support our overall market position here. We see, however, some especially on the EV side, planned programs or launches being delayed or canceled here. So there are some reshuffling there. But what kind of impact that we have in '26 compared to '25, we are not ready to communicate that yet. But we, as I said, we have good order intake to support our market position.

And the questions come from the line of Edison Yu from Deutsche Bank.

This is Winnie Yan for Edison. My first question is on the supplier contract that came out of GM, indicating maybe like a more -- a less favorable contract terms of suppliers on a go-forward basis. Just curious if this is something that's more isolated and more depends on like the OEM. Or do you see like heading into [indiscernible] maybe a broader trend that can close potentially as a headwind heading to next year and [indiscernible].

Yes. No, I don't want to comment specific customer contracts or conditions here. But of course, I mean, it's constantly ongoing development here in terms of what the OEMs wants to put into the contract. But I would say that I see good ability to manage those clauses and contracts that are put in front of us here. And I must say I don't feel any major concerns around more difficult situation. I think we are quite successful in negotiating and settling contracts with our customers here. So nothing exceptional there from our point of view, I would say.

Got it. And then on the Ford fire impact, you did mention some potential impacts into 4Q. So I was just curious if you can help us delineate that? Is that something to be concerned about? Or is it more of a negligible impact for you guys?

Yes. I think I mean every car that is not produced is not a good thing, of course, and especially the customer in question here. But I mean you have seen the announcement made by the OEMs here. And just as a reference here, I mean, the Ford 150 is around 1% of our global sales. And so we're so good about this manageable level from our point of view.

And the next question come from the line of Dan Levy from Barclays.

Great. I just wanted to just follow up on that prior question. The headlines on Experia yesterday causing some potential supply issues. Just how much of that of a potential risk have you seen or heard on that in the fourth quarter for European production?

For the European production. No, I think it's too early to comment on that. I mean it's just a few days hours or most into the situation here. I think, first of all, I think we have a very good supply chain team that are a lot here and are managing through the situation here. We have been here before with supply chain cost gains. And I would say, the last couple of years, there has been many topics here. So I mean, the team is well prepared to maneuver through it. And we'll see and come back on that, but I would say it's too early to be too granular or to detailed around. And as I said solid [indiscernible] we don't see so much yet on the customers.

Just as a follow-up, I wanted to double-click on the China performance. So you did very well outperformance with the domestic OEMs. But in spite of that, the total China performance was negative 3 points even though the domestics are the clear majority, I think we were all a bit sure, I know you sort of unpacked this a bit before in one of the prior questions. But can you maybe just explain the dynamics of why even though you outperformed the domestic, the overall China performance was negative. And what -- can you explain what flips going forward that is leading you to say that your China growth going forward should outperform.

Yes. I mean we still guide for us, as we said before here, I mean, we believe that we will see improvements here in the quarter to come. And I think it's a really important milestone here what we reported on the COEM outperformance, which was really strong here in the quarter. But still, the global OEMs is the biggest majority of our total sales. And some of our customers here that are significant had a negative mix impact on us this quarter, unfortunately. So what was on the negative side here. But we don't see this as major trend shift here it's mix effect that we see from quarter-to-quarter. But I think the important takeaway here is that we see this strong growth development to the Chinese OEMs that is also growing their share of the total market. So that sets us up for our development in China over time.

Given the time constraints, this concludes the question-and-answer session. I will now hand back to Mr. Mikael Bratt for closing remarks.

Thank you very much, [indiscernible]. Before we conclude today's call, I want to reaffirm our commitment to meeting our financial targets. We remain focused on cost efficiency, innovation, quality, sustainability and mitigating tariffs.

As of this ongoing market headwinds, we anticipate strong fourth quarter performance. Our fourth quarter call is scheduled for Friday, January 30, 2026. Thank you for your attention on to the next time. Stay safe.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.